Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1415 Scott Adams： Learn to Spot Your Own Cognitive Dissonance While Hating me at the Same Time. Fun!

00:00:00.660 Oh, it's going down today.

00:00:04.160 Wow.

00:00:05.340 We're going to have trouble today.

00:00:07.560 But that's what makes it one of the best.

00:00:10.740 Coffees with Scott Adams of all time.

00:00:13.860 And if you don't believe it, well, let me prove it to you.

00:00:17.440 And all you need is a copper mug, a glass of tank of chalice, a canteen jug, a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:24.760 Filled with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:26.420 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine here of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:32.480 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and boy, do I feel bad for the people who didn't make it here on time.

00:00:38.700 You're going to have to take up your game a little bit more to come in on time.

00:00:43.720 Here it is, the Simultaneous Sip, go!

00:00:49.980 Ah, better than bleach. Yeah.

00:00:53.220 So yesterday, after being out of the country for eight days or so, I went to the grocery store.

00:01:01.680 Put on my mask.

00:01:03.300 I was walking around the grocery store, and I saw somebody without a mask. 0.99

00:01:06.760 And I thought, my God, how long will it be before this poor bastard is kicked out of the grocery store? 0.98

00:01:12.600 And then I saw another person without a mask. 0.99

00:01:14.780 And I thought, two people without a mask in a grocery store?

00:01:18.380 What kind of crazy life am I in?

00:01:22.800 And then I noticed that basically almost everybody didn't have a mask.

00:01:28.560 Because while I was gone, the rules changed.

00:01:31.880 And I forgot.

00:01:33.760 So I took off my mask because I'm fully vaccinated.

00:01:38.560 And apparently this store does not have any rules that would override the state's suggestion that you don't need a mask if you're vaccinated.

00:01:45.360 And for the first time, the first time for me, I know most of you have already experienced this.

00:01:53.820 But for me, the first time at a grocery store in over a year without a mask, it felt really good.

00:02:04.580 Now, I know I'm way behind all of you because not only am I in California, which is behind, but I personally was a week behind even California.

00:02:12.420 So you're already there, but I've got to tell you, it felt great.

00:02:16.900 It just felt freaking great.

00:02:21.000 I understand there are still a few places that might require one, like a healthcare organization.

00:02:27.840 I think if I go to my HMO, I need a mask still.

00:02:31.480 So, but I'll give them that, you know, it's, you don't go to the healthcare place that often.

00:02:38.340 And it is a medical place.

00:02:40.920 So, you know, you could see why they would be last to make a change.

00:02:47.580 There is lots going on.

00:02:49.000 Number one, it turns out there's a new study that says coffee is good for your liver.

00:02:52.880 You thought that the simultaneous sip was only about an introduction to this amazing content?

00:03:07.220 And no, it's more than that.

00:03:09.200 The simultaneous sip is keeping you healthy.

00:03:11.380 It is not only connecting you to all the people in the world, probably boosting your oxytocin.

00:03:17.520 I don't have a scientific study to prove that, but it just feels like it.

00:03:21.860 But also, it's making your liver healthier, if you don't overdo it.

00:03:27.260 Three or four cups a day, and your liver will be, well, as good as new.

00:03:32.820 And that means you can drink a little extra.

00:03:36.520 No, no, that's bad medical advice.

00:03:39.360 Don't take medical advice from cartoonists.

00:03:41.740 Don't drink.

00:03:42.920 Just have a nice, healthy liver.

00:03:45.620 And for that, a few cups of coffee might help you, allegedly.

00:03:48.200 So there's a new racist movie, probably the racist thing I've seen in my adult life, so bad that it's just a head shaker.

00:04:02.420 Here it is. 0.96

00:04:03.200 It's an anti-white movie. 0.54

00:04:08.600 I mean, I don't know how you can call it anything else.

00:04:10.880 With a star who is named Karen, and she plays a Karen.

00:04:17.080 You know, the classical Karen behavior.

00:04:19.680 And the setup for this movie is that a black family moves in next to a woman named Karen.

00:04:29.400 And then this Karen person becomes a monster version of Karen and does everything she can to get the black family to move out 1.00

00:04:37.220 because she's a big old racist, and she does every, like, legal trick to get them in trouble and accusations and that sort of thing. 1.00

00:04:45.740 Now, I have several comments about this. 0.94

00:04:48.740 Number one, the marketing for this movie is really brilliant.

00:04:54.660 It's really brilliant.

00:04:56.700 If you could find any movie idea that would more make people want to watch it than this thing, good luck.

00:05:06.540 Good luck.

00:05:07.400 You know, it's not a superhero movie, and those do well.

00:05:10.020 But if you're trying to make somebody see a smaller budget movie, oh, my God, this is clever.

00:05:17.140 Because it hits, it just hits everything.

00:05:19.700 Like, every one of your emotional buttons is like, meh, meh, meh, meh, meh.

00:05:24.540 Gotcha, gotcha, gotcha.

00:05:26.080 So, I hate this movie, and the people who made it should be deeply condemned.

00:05:32.760 I'll probably watch it.

00:05:36.260 Because it's brilliantly terrible.

00:05:38.380 I mean, this is really, like, bad for society, bad for people.

00:05:44.740 It's just bad.

00:05:47.220 But really good marketing.

00:05:50.920 So, and honestly, I can't think of anything that's been more racist than this. 0.99

00:05:55.820 Because essentially, it's just, if you wanted to summarize the movie, it's white people are awful. 1.00

00:06:02.820 There you go. 0.99

00:06:03.900 There's my movie review. 1.00

00:06:05.640 White people are awful. 1.00

00:06:08.380 So, here's a chance for black Americans to improve their brand, which I think everybody 1.00

00:06:14.640 should think about.

00:06:16.100 Because how you're thought about, in whatever group you are, or even as an individual, it

00:06:22.200 matters, right?

00:06:23.280 If people like you and respect you, you'll have a better life.

00:06:26.520 So, any chance you get to improve your brand, you should take it.

00:06:32.940 Take, for example, you've seen a number of clips of black Americans speaking out against

00:06:38.580 critical race theory at, let's say, meetings of, you know, school boards and stuff.

00:06:45.320 Now, what does that do to the brand, if you can call it that, the reputation of black Americans?

00:06:53.840 Really good.

00:06:55.200 Really good.

00:06:56.040 Because when you see black Americans being on both sides of an issue that has some racial

00:07:00.580 component, you say to yourself, oh, there's some people who are thinking it through, coming

00:07:06.500 to different opinions, but they're not just saying, I'm black, so I'm on this side.

00:07:12.260 You know, you have all the nuance and the disagreement.

00:07:15.580 So, when you look at that as a non-black person, how do you feel about black Americans?

00:07:23.160 Good, right?

00:07:24.300 And it doesn't matter that there are more people on one side than the other.

00:07:28.040 You're just seeing a good, healthy, I think, completely helpful disagreement among adults

00:07:38.460 who have thought it through.

00:07:40.020 That's great for the brand.

00:07:42.880 You know, I don't know if it's offensive to talk in terms of brands, but I don't think

00:07:46.720 you should be.

00:07:48.780 This Karen movie is the same thing.

00:07:50.520 If all that comes out of this is people go to it and talk about it and like it, well,

00:07:56.960 I think it's a missed opportunity.

00:08:00.200 Because I'd love to see some black Americans say, look, if this were reversed, it would be 0.91

00:08:06.580 100% unacceptable.

00:08:09.080 Let's just agree on that.

00:08:10.720 If all they did is reverse sort of the theme of the movie, no way this gets into the theaters.

00:08:17.900 I'd love to see some black Americans say, look, let's, you know, we got plenty of real

00:08:22.840 stuff to disagree with. 0.93

00:08:24.420 We don't need this.

00:08:26.300 Let's just make it stuff worse.

00:08:27.800 It doesn't make anybody better off, right?

00:08:30.720 So, I'd love to see some pushback on that.

00:08:32.920 Don't know if we'll see it.

00:08:33.740 You know, there's a new story, let's see, what was it, Google app.

00:08:44.120 So, Google has an app.

00:08:46.780 Hat tip to David Smith, who pointed this out on Twitter.

00:08:52.140 And the app will identify a skin lesion and tell you if it's a problem.

00:08:57.300 I assume that means cancerous or non-cancerous.

00:09:00.340 And, weirdly, it got approved in Europe, but not by the FDA.

00:09:08.360 So, in Europe, they'll be able to use the app, but in the United States, they will not.

00:09:14.280 Now, which one of them used science?

00:09:17.840 Because they got different answers, right?

00:09:19.980 They got different answers from exactly the same data.

00:09:23.840 So, was the FDA following science, or is Europe following science?

00:09:32.300 Because you'd like to follow science, wouldn't you?

00:09:35.220 Which way do you go?

00:09:37.020 One says yes, one says no, same data.

00:09:43.200 The biggest con ever perpetrated on the public in the modern day,

00:09:48.600 and I'll put the modern in there because, you know,

00:09:51.060 there may have been worse ones in the past,

00:09:52.660 but the biggest con is that you can follow the science.

00:09:58.080 If you could, if it were a thing,

00:10:01.560 something that actual humans could do,

00:10:03.900 it'd be a great idea, probably,

00:10:07.060 because then you'd be following the most rational path.

00:10:11.540 It wouldn't always be right,

00:10:13.360 but you'd always be rational in taking that set of odds, right?

00:10:17.700 But it's just not something humans can do.

00:10:22.520 Look at this.

00:10:23.400 This is just a perfect example.

00:10:25.240 If you could follow the science,

00:10:27.860 then both Europe and the FDA would be on the same side.

00:10:31.400 Same science.

00:10:32.860 Science didn't change.

00:10:34.020 So, as soon as people say follow the science,

00:10:39.040 you should see that as manipulation.

00:10:43.680 Because it probably is.

00:10:45.040 Not for everybody who says it.

00:10:46.940 But beware that when anybody in the leadership position says follow the science,

00:10:51.720 they might have control over what you think is the science.

00:10:57.480 So, what they're really saying is do what I'm telling you,

00:11:00.400 but they're disguising do what I tell you to do,

00:11:03.320 because they're saying, well, it's backed by science.

00:11:06.680 But is it?

00:11:08.280 When you can have different opinions about what the science is?

00:11:10.900 No, it's just an opinion supported by, you know,

00:11:15.000 an interpretation of science that just happens to go your way.

00:11:17.840 It's not much different than the way religion is used.

00:11:22.660 Follow the religion. 0.81

00:11:24.220 Who gets to define where the religion is going?

00:11:28.560 The Pope?

00:11:29.920 God?

00:11:31.300 I don't know.

00:11:32.480 So, you can't really follow science

00:11:34.300 if science doesn't even know where it's going. 0.96

00:11:36.480 It's a ridiculous concept.

00:11:38.660 And at the same time, you should follow the science. 0.99

00:11:42.800 It's both ridiculous and common sense at the same time.

00:11:47.960 It's a weird thing. 0.57

00:11:49.080 I don't know if there's anything quite like it.

00:11:51.000 Because I'm not going to tell you not to follow the science. 1.00

00:11:53.940 That would be stupid. 0.97

00:11:55.960 I'm just telling you, you can't do it reliably. 1.00

00:11:58.720 And you should probably learn to know the difference.

00:12:02.280 All right?

00:12:02.860 I just told you earlier that coffee is good for your liver.

00:12:06.660 Because there's one study about that.

00:12:09.940 One study.

00:12:11.300 Is it a good study?

00:12:13.220 Will it hold up?

00:12:14.280 If other people do studies, will it match it?

00:12:17.840 Don't know.

00:12:19.540 So, should you drink more coffee

00:12:21.340 because this one study says it's good for your liver?

00:12:24.620 Probably not.

00:12:26.500 There are other reasons to drink coffee.

00:12:29.220 But following the science just isn't something people can do.

00:12:32.500 You just have to understand that.

00:12:34.580 All right.

00:12:39.100 I've got a skeptics challenge here.

00:12:41.700 There was a tweet in which there's a claim, some kind of ONS survey.

00:12:47.480 I don't think any of this is credible, by the way.

00:12:49.460 So, the context which I'm giving this to you is a claim which I do not find credible.

00:12:55.320 But, I tweeted it because I'd like you to pour through it and see if you can figure out, you know, how credible you think it is.

00:13:03.380 And the claim is this, that a survey showed that 87% of adults in the UK had antibodies to the coronavirus by June 7th from vaccination or infection prior to mid-May.

00:13:17.100 So, if you added infections, prior infections plus vaccinations, 87% had antibodies.

00:13:25.860 Given vaccination rates, this tweet goes on to say,

00:13:29.280 simple math determines that 70 to 80% of total UK population had been infected by mid-May,

00:13:35.100 which means that vaccinations and everything else were a waste if that interpretation held up.

00:13:40.440 What do you think of that?

00:13:43.680 What's your reaction to this data?

00:13:48.960 I'm going to look at the comments and I want to see what your reaction is.

00:13:53.000 I hear some say, wow.

00:13:54.800 Okay.

00:13:55.720 Wow, 87%.

00:13:57.080 Okay.

00:14:01.340 Somebody says, yeah, I think we all had it.

00:14:03.640 Somebody says, terrible data.

00:14:05.160 Somebody says, not true.

00:14:06.600 Nonsense.

00:14:07.900 No way.

00:14:08.660 Sounds sketchy.

00:14:10.440 Yeah.

00:14:11.640 All right.

00:14:12.280 So, here's my take on this.

00:14:13.900 This outcome, this 87% thing, and then even taking it down to how much natural immunity there must have been,

00:14:21.540 is so far outside expectation that the odds of this being true are really low.

00:14:29.260 Meaning that if you're learning about it in this tweet,

00:14:33.560 and nobody in any industrial country had noticed that somehow their entire country,

00:14:41.120 because if it's true in the UK, it would obviously be true in some other number of countries that there would be massive amount of immunity.

00:14:49.720 But wouldn't we have noticed that?

00:14:52.340 Don't you think?

00:14:54.340 I feel like the odds that this wouldn't be a story in every country and just be so obvious that everybody knew it by now,

00:15:01.760 I don't think you could believe this.

00:15:04.360 This doesn't sound, it doesn't even sound in the universe of things that you should take seriously.

00:15:11.020 It's just too far out there.

00:15:12.540 And it's a little too far on, it's a little too on the nose, right?

00:15:16.020 It's what so many of you wanted to believe is exactly true.

00:15:19.700 I would rule this out, based on it just being too far out the mainstream, we would have known this way before now.

00:15:29.180 And there's another claim in here that infections dropped after January 1st, before there were many vaccinations.

00:15:38.480 So if the curve was already plummeting after January, before there were many vaccinations,

00:15:44.860 logically, this information suggests that maybe we had way more natural immunity from infections.

00:15:55.100 But don't you all know that infections always drop after January?

00:16:02.620 Because it's not the holiday season, and the travel patterns change.

00:16:08.140 So we all expect it to go down after the holidays.

00:16:11.980 Everybody did.

00:16:12.780 So that doesn't mean that there was herd immunity.

00:16:16.900 It just means you stopped going on holiday and infecting your aunt.

00:16:20.200 That's all it meant.

00:16:22.400 Or that's all it could have meant. 0.97

00:16:24.160 So their interpretation here, I think, is ridiculous. 0.90

00:16:26.340 I would ignore that.

00:16:27.320 But I put it on Twitter if somebody wants to argue that it's more credible than I think.

00:16:33.320 All right, I have a confession.

00:16:36.020 All right, I'm going to do something that's going to be painful for a lot of you.

00:16:40.640 But I need to set it up first.

00:16:42.780 You've heard me make some opinions that you don't like.

00:16:47.820 And don't turn this off yet, all right, because this won't be the normal conversation.

00:16:54.700 We're going to get into something a little deeper.

00:16:57.280 You've heard my opinions on trans athletes, and you said, God, I hate that. 0.99

00:17:02.760 Here's a confession.

00:17:04.420 I'm not sure I told you my exact accurate opinion on this topic.

00:17:10.800 I may have been enjoying myself stimulating cognitive dissonance in people because it teaches me how to spot it.

00:17:23.020 In other words, if you trigger it, you get to see how people respond, and then you see the pattern.

00:17:30.140 You go, oh, these are cognitive dissonance responses, and then these are good ones.

00:17:34.480 I'm going to tell you for the first time something close to my real opinion.

00:17:40.020 This will be the first time you've heard it, okay?

00:17:43.480 And I'm going to couch it in a discussion of which people who responded to my tweet today have a tell for cognitive dissonance,

00:17:53.860 and which ones simply have a good argument, okay?

00:17:58.280 So let me start with the people who have a good argument because I feel that they will be the ones who are on your side for the most part.

00:18:06.280 So I'm going to be pacing you.

00:18:08.400 This is a persuasion technique.

00:18:10.500 I'm going to start by agreeing with the things that I know we can agree on.

00:18:13.640 And if I get you to agree on a bunch of things, you're going to be a little bit better primed for me to take you someplace that might be a little uncomfortable.

00:18:24.940 You ready for this?

00:18:26.140 So this isn't about transgender athletes.

00:18:30.340 Number one, I don't care.

00:18:33.160 So here's the first part of my opinion that you'll hear for the first time.

00:18:36.500 I don't really care about the issue.

00:18:38.580 I don't have a daughter or stepdaughter who's involved.

00:18:42.220 I don't really watch sports enough to care.

00:18:47.260 I think there are probably a million ways that you can handle it no matter what you do.

00:18:51.340 You know, ways to mitigate things, ways to fix it.

00:18:54.500 Don't much care, okay?

00:18:56.880 So that's the first thing.

00:19:01.400 But I do love what you learn about the argument.

00:19:05.380 All right, so let me start with the good arguments for why transgender athletes should not be allowed to play on traditional women's teams. 1.00

00:19:15.140 Okay?

00:19:15.500 Now, this part would agree with most of you, I think.

00:19:18.960 And here's a good argument.

00:19:21.040 Let's see.

00:19:22.460 Before I get to the bad ones, the ones that are cognitive dissonance.

00:19:25.380 I have to work through all the bad ones here.

00:19:32.540 Give me a minute.

00:19:33.880 All right.

00:19:34.380 Here are the non-cognitive dissonance arguments for why transgender athletes should not be allowed to play on traditional women's teams. 0.63

00:19:43.800 Here's one from Zabi's other mower sold, question mark.

00:19:49.940 That's the name of the Twitter account.

00:19:52.000 So Zabi's mower says, maybe think of it another way.

00:19:57.440 And he argues to me, he says, you've said you don't like Biden's tax plan because it's changing the rules after they were established.

00:20:06.200 Which is true.

00:20:06.780 I lived my life building a certain kind of life and financial situation under the old set of tax laws.

00:20:15.940 And if I run into a wall and suddenly they change, well, that doesn't feel fair because I planned my whole life on a certain basis and then it changed.

00:20:25.680 So Zabi's saying, think of it the same way.

00:20:28.720 There are people, and then he goes on.

00:20:30.920 The same may be said for the females that committed and trained for the Olympics, only for the rules to be changed later on. 0.99

00:20:40.180 Now, do you detect any cognitive dissonance in this response?

00:20:45.960 No.

00:20:46.900 No.

00:20:47.720 Now, you could agree with it, or you could disagree with it.

00:20:51.880 But is there anything in it that signals that there's some cognitive dissonance going on?

00:20:59.320 None.

00:20:59.700 None.

00:21:00.180 This is a perfectly reasonable argument.

00:21:03.520 I'm not sure it settles it one way or another, but as a point, I have nothing to say about that.

00:21:10.100 A perfectly valid statement that the rules changed, and people don't like it.

00:21:16.460 It feels unfair.

00:21:17.980 We all register that, that it feels unfair when rules change.

00:21:22.560 But let me just toss out a counter to that.

00:21:28.200 The counter is that when the topic is bigotry and discrimination, you still change the rules, right?

00:21:38.680 If you had been born in a system in which slavery had been the expectations, and you'd built your life based on owning slaves, and then somebody came along and suddenly changed the system, well, that's so unfair for you because you made your life based on benefiting from slavery.

00:21:57.380 The point is, when bigotry is the issue, as is the case with transgender athletes, when bigotry is the issue, you can change the rules the moment you can.

00:22:10.540 The moment you can change the rules, go ahead and do it.

00:22:15.480 That's the exception to the rule.

00:22:17.820 Now, but let me say that while I have a counter to this argument that the rules changed, it's still a good point.

00:22:27.980 The way you feel about it is it feels unfair because of this very thing.

00:22:33.980 So that's a good point.

00:22:34.820 No cognitive dissonance there.

00:22:36.680 Here's another one.

00:22:39.860 TankerJD, user on Twitter, says this to me.

00:22:44.300 He says, that's not the point.

00:22:46.260 And he says, I think it's he,

00:22:47.860 women's and girls' sports was something nice that men did for their daughters, wives, and sisters to allow biological men, this would be his description of a trans athlete, into the sport is to take away that gift. 0.72

00:23:04.000 Good point.

00:23:06.080 Right?

00:23:06.420 Now, you could disagree with it, and you could agree with it, but there's no cognitive dissonance in this.

00:23:11.740 This is just a good point.

00:23:13.280 The good point is that it was a gift, in a sense, or let's say people thought of it that way.

00:23:21.740 And if something is given to you, no matter what it is, and that it's taken away, can that ever feel fair?

00:23:29.360 No, of course not.

00:23:30.180 It would never feel fair.

00:23:32.080 But is it fair? 1.00

00:23:33.280 Well, as I've often said, famously, fairness, it was invented so that idiots could participate in debates. 0.99

00:23:45.900 Fairness isn't a thing. 0.99

00:23:47.940 There's no, you can't grab a handful of fairness.

00:23:51.060 You can't measure it.

00:23:52.760 It's subjective.

00:23:54.100 What's fair to you seems unfair to me.

00:23:56.580 In fact, any change to anything causes unfairness to somebody.

00:24:00.660 All right?

00:24:01.820 So we don't live in a world in which you can manage to fairness.

00:24:06.080 But yet, we have an impression of what's fair.

00:24:09.920 Is it reasonable to say that the men who thought they wanted to build a better world for their daughters and sisters and whatever,

00:24:19.120 would it be fair to say that they thought they were giving a gift and women thought they were receiving one?

00:24:25.000 They wouldn't think of it as a gift.

00:24:26.720 They would think of it as fairness.

00:24:27.740 But it doesn't feel right to have anything taken away from anybody.

00:24:32.860 I get that.

00:24:34.220 And a totally legitimate variable to put in there that somebody would feel bad, especially if they trained their whole life.

00:24:42.300 It's a good opinion.

00:24:44.500 My, you know, there are counters for it, but it's a perfectly fair opinion.

00:24:49.560 No cognitive dissonance in that opinion.

00:24:51.720 Would you agree so far?

00:24:52.680 So far, are most of us on the same page?

00:24:57.500 That these are actually pretty good opinions, even if you disagree with them.

00:25:01.340 And that they don't signal any kind of cognitive dissonance.

00:25:05.920 All right?

00:25:08.560 I think there's another one.

00:25:10.160 Cheryl Corey on Twitter says, in a reasonable question, says, if we don't separate sports by sex, then what are the implications for women's sports? 0.91

00:25:22.680 Now, this would be similar related to the points of something that we liked was in existence, and we don't want to lose it.

00:25:31.900 Who wants to lose something that's working?

00:25:34.360 If you have daughters who are playing on a team, and they like it, and you like watching it, why would you want to lose that, or have it diminished in some way according to you?

00:25:43.980 Nobody does.

00:25:45.500 So, those are all good arguments.

00:25:47.160 Now, let me show you the other ones.

00:25:48.940 Here's how you know if you are experiencing cognitive dissonance.

00:25:53.160 The arguments I've given you, so far, do not have that quality.

00:25:57.200 There's nothing about them that a trained hypnotist or a psychologist would say, oh, there's something wrong with that.

00:26:05.240 Now, let me give you the alternatives.

00:26:09.260 All right?

00:26:09.920 And by the way, here was my tweet that caused people to respond.

00:26:15.880 And I'm not going to argue that this tweet makes sense.

00:26:19.440 Right?

00:26:19.700 So, this is my confession, that I'm not trolling per se just to get a random result.

00:26:28.100 I'm kind of fascinated at how people process this topic.

00:26:33.380 And so, I tweeted something that I knew would get a response.

00:26:36.080 So, that's all you're going to see here.

00:26:37.700 This is just a tweet that was intended to get a response and make people think about it differently.

00:26:42.780 It wasn't just to troll.

00:26:45.140 It was to teach you something and maybe learn something myself.

00:26:48.600 All right.

00:26:49.320 Here is the tweet.

00:26:50.660 I said this morning, it is unfair for trans athletes to compete on women's teams because of the strength difference, primarily.

00:27:10.240 Now, some of you have said, oh, there are some mental differences, etc.

00:27:13.240 But primarily, it's a strength difference, wouldn't you say?

00:27:17.360 Size and strength, but more strength.

00:27:20.660 All right?

00:27:21.240 So, if we agree on that, here's the second part.

00:27:24.960 It is fair for LeBron James to compete against me for a spot in an NBA team because the only thing that's holding me back is my poor work ethic.

00:27:35.420 But otherwise, LeBron James is a man, and I'm a man, so the fact that he gets on the team sort of denies me a spot on an NBA team, doesn't it?

00:27:50.720 Well, not really, right?

00:27:55.680 It's just being provocative.

00:27:57.380 And I'm trying to make the point that we live in a world in which nothing is fair.

00:28:02.540 Nothing is fair. 0.92

00:28:04.160 Fairness is a ridiculous standard.

00:28:05.940 Is it fair that LeBron can play in the NBA, and I don't have a chance?

00:28:11.960 No, that's not fair.

00:28:13.900 Is it fair that I was born with, apparently, some kind of wiring that allows me to be a cartoonist?

00:28:20.640 But I'll bet, I mean, just statistically speaking, I'll bet if LeBron tried to become a professional cartoonist, he'd have some trouble.

00:28:29.800 Is that fair?

00:28:30.760 Is it fair that I was born with this talent that gives me a great life?

00:28:35.940 And maybe somebody else doesn't have it?

00:28:38.340 No, it's not fair.

00:28:39.780 It just is.

00:28:42.000 So if the problem is somebody losing a spot, which is the argument you often hear,

00:28:49.160 hey, somebody is going to lose that spot.

00:28:50.960 It would have gone to a woman who had trained all her life for it and then got knocked out of the spot. 0.99

00:28:57.840 If the problem is that somebody is losing a spot, you have to take that argument further, don't you?

00:29:03.020 And say, every smallish man is losing a spot in the NBA. 0.98

00:29:08.860 To say that I'm a man and LeBron James is a man is ridiculous. 0.95

00:29:15.480 Yes, we're both biologically men. 0.96

00:29:17.320 I get it.

00:29:18.580 But really?

00:29:19.540 So we can compete because we're both men?

00:29:21.740 Most people can't compete with a professional athlete.

00:29:27.400 It's ridiculous to say that men have it fair because we can fairly compete against LeBron James.

00:29:34.460 No, we can't.

00:29:36.180 No, we can't.

00:29:37.200 I can't compete against LeBron James any more than somebody who was born biologically female 0.90

00:29:44.240 can compete against a weightlifter who had been identifying male until yesterday.

00:29:50.040 All right?

00:29:51.340 So you've got to be consistent in your argument.

00:29:53.680 Anyway, so that's what would have triggered the cognitive dissonance if it worked.

00:29:58.880 In other words, I set the reader up to trigger cognitive dissonance.

00:30:04.720 That was intentional, so I'm confessing that.

00:30:07.620 And my view, and this is just speculation, is that the real problem that people have with

00:30:15.160 the transgender athletes probably is an uncanny valley problem, which is, if you've heard 1.00

00:30:21.680 of the uncanny valley idea, it's the idea that if you built a robot and it didn't look

00:30:27.140 anything like a human, it just looked like a robot, that would be cool.

00:30:31.060 But if you made your robot almost look like a human, but just a little bit different so

00:30:36.980 you could detect the difference, it would be creepy.

00:30:40.600 You wouldn't want to be anywhere near it.

00:30:42.000 You'd be like, ugh, it's not really human, but it's so close.

00:30:45.340 It's like a zombie or something, right?

00:30:47.360 So that theory is that you have revulsion about things that are almost human, but not

00:30:52.720 quite.

00:30:54.060 And by analogy, I'm not saying that anybody's non-human in this example, so don't take that

00:31:00.800 out of it.

00:31:01.180 By analogy, if your worldview is men and women stereotypical, and then you see somebody who

00:31:08.300 doesn't fit the stereotype, your brain is going to say, that's almost like what I'm expecting

00:31:14.280 people to act like, but it's not quite there because I can't resolve the gender.

00:31:21.000 And then it becomes this uncomfortable thing for the viewer.

00:31:23.640 But is that fair to the people who are triggering that in you, or is that a problem in you?

00:31:30.940 I say it's a problem in you, because I would say that if you look at the, let's say, the

00:31:35.800 history of LGBTQ people in this country, simple exposure to more people in that community makes

00:31:45.180 whatever feelings you had about what is right and typical and stereotypical just go away.

00:31:49.620 And that if you live in California for, I don't know, a month, whatever uncomfortable feeling

00:31:56.180 you had about people not fitting your model of exactly sexuality being binary, you just

00:32:03.300 get over it, right?

00:32:04.780 So it's more about the viewer.

00:32:07.300 It just feels like it's about the topic, but it's really something that's happening inside

00:32:12.220 you.

00:32:12.660 It's just your experience of not being able to resolve things the way you want them to

00:32:16.780 be, to be this or that.

00:32:19.620 So I think that drives a lot of the feelings, but people don't want to admit that they just

00:32:24.540 have a feeling about it, right?

00:32:26.440 People want to argue with their data and their logic and their reasons, because that looks

00:32:30.480 cool, but arguing, ah, I just don't like it.

00:32:33.420 It just makes me feel uncomfortable.

00:32:35.780 Nobody says that, so they don't argue that way.

00:32:40.500 Yes, Sean, the brain is a pattern recognition machine.

00:32:44.180 That supports my point.

00:32:47.320 And I think also, as some of the commenters said, that a lot of the motivation is that

00:32:54.020 a lot of men just want to be supportive of women in their life.

00:32:58.840 They want to support their daughter, their friends, their sister, their mom, whatever.

00:33:03.380 And that if women don't like this idea, let's say the majority of women don't like the idea 0.87

00:33:09.540 of their daughter missing the spot, then I think men, we're just sort of designed to want

00:33:16.520 to support women.

00:33:18.080 I don't think anything is more basic to our biological nature as men than sort of wanting

00:33:25.780 to support women, you know, make them happy. 0.98

00:33:28.800 So that's part of it, which has nothing to do with logic and nothing to do with facts.

00:33:34.420 People just want to support other people sometimes, and they'll take whatever argument gets that

00:33:39.660 done.

00:33:41.040 So that's the first thing.

00:33:42.940 And then I would say that you need to break the argument into two parts, because youth sports

00:33:50.020 is really about the athletes themselves more than the entertainment value, right?

00:33:55.100 If you've got a high schooler in a sport, it's more about the student.

00:33:58.800 It's not about the parents or the audience.

00:34:01.340 But if it's professional sports, it's really not about the athlete.

00:34:05.640 It's really about the audience.

00:34:08.060 So treating the student athlete and the professional athlete as if it's the same conversation won't

00:34:14.740 make sense, because you're not pursuing even the same objective with either of those.

00:34:18.980 So given those two different objectives, one being about the athlete for the younger people

00:34:23.580 and one being about the audience for the professionals, let's look at it through that lens.

00:34:28.220 And don't conflate those two things, because you'll see a lot of arguments that act like

00:34:34.480 those two things are somehow the same.

00:34:37.460 All right.

00:34:38.000 And remember that fairness isn't a real thing.

00:34:40.200 So here are some people that I would say are exhibiting cognitive dissonance.

00:34:47.040 So now you've heard me agree with you on what feels fair and what doesn't.

00:34:53.620 So we're so far.

00:34:55.400 Does anybody have a grossly different opinion than mine in the comments?

00:35:02.080 Because I'd be interested if so far you're disagreeing with me.

00:35:05.500 All right.

00:35:09.320 Just tell me in the comments.

00:35:10.620 We'll follow that.

00:35:11.960 All right.

00:35:12.220 Here's Mike Costanza says to me on Twitter.

00:35:16.100 In response to my tweet, he says,

00:35:18.360 You always say we can't see our own blind spots.

00:35:22.760 So in this instance, I will help point it out to you.

00:35:25.460 Your blind spot is sports.

00:35:29.060 This is cognitive dissonance.

00:35:31.320 That's what it looks like.

00:35:32.720 Cognitive dissonance is when you go after one of the tells.

00:35:35.900 It's not the only one.

00:35:36.720 I'll get to the other ones.

00:35:37.760 One of the clear tells is that they go after the messenger and completely ignore the argument.

00:35:44.060 And second of all, what would make Mike think I have a blind spot for sports?

00:35:51.620 I grew up playing four to five sports a day.

00:35:55.780 I've watched every professional sport I can think of.

00:35:59.420 And at various times in my life, I enjoyed it.

00:36:02.160 I've had, you know, step kid in sports.

00:36:06.660 I've been immersed in sports as much as anybody.

00:36:10.280 So what would make Mike think I have a blind spot?

00:36:12.720 Does he think I don't understand what a transgender on a woman's team would do to the audience? 1.00

00:36:19.340 Of course I do.

00:36:20.520 Everybody understands that.

00:36:22.020 We all understand how that would affect the entertainment value.

00:36:25.880 Do I not understand that it would feel unfair for a woman or all the women who got, you know, knocked down a level?

00:36:36.240 Of course I understand that.

00:36:38.300 Everybody understands that, Mike.

00:36:39.880 There's nothing even slightly confusing about this situation.

00:36:47.000 So Mike's belief that the reason that he and I disagree is that I have a blind spot in sports, 0.54

00:36:53.680 which is almost a ridiculous statement for any adult human.

00:36:58.860 We all understand sports. 0.71

00:37:00.560 In fact, there are very few things that you could say everybody understands so well.

00:37:05.640 It would be hard to think of any topic that was not so universally well understood as sports.

00:37:14.900 So this is cognitive dissonance because there's no fact challenged.

00:37:18.760 There's no argument given.

00:37:20.900 And his attack on me doesn't even make sense.

00:37:23.600 It's not even a logical attack on a person.

00:37:26.780 There are plenty of things you could say about me.

00:37:29.220 Maybe if you wanted to go after something about me, maybe point out a time I was wrong in the past.

00:37:35.440 Something like that.

00:37:36.780 So that's clearly cognitive dissonance.

00:37:38.820 So if you found the way that you want to respond is about the person as opposed to the argument,

00:37:44.720 you are experiencing cognitive dissonance.

00:37:47.200 That's how you can tell.

00:37:49.740 All right.

00:37:50.180 Here's another one.

00:37:50.900 So Arachno Kimono QC, that's the Twitter handle, says,

00:37:59.300 My view, though genuinely unsure if it holds up,

00:38:03.460 it says,

00:38:04.180 It is fair for LeBron James to compete against me for a spot in the NBA team because we're both male.

00:38:10.300 But it is unfair for trans athletes to compete on women's teams because they're not female. 0.98

00:38:16.020 So this is Arachno's point of view, not mine.

00:38:18.800 Now, so what is that?

00:38:21.880 Is that a good argument or is that cognitive dissonance?

00:38:26.860 Can you spot it?

00:38:28.860 It's cognitive dissonance.

00:38:31.140 Because Arachno has confused facts for arguments.

00:38:37.580 There's no argument here.

00:38:39.360 He's acting like a fact is an argument and that he's the keeper of facts.

00:38:44.700 Both of those things are absurd.

00:38:46.440 Because he doesn't get to make something a fact just because he put a word on it.

00:38:52.440 So he's saying it's a fact that trans athletes are not female.

00:38:59.060 That's an opinion.

00:39:01.260 Right?

00:39:02.560 I get the reasoning.

00:39:04.020 And if you were going to argue it, I'd come down.

00:39:06.960 Well, I don't know where I'd come down on that.

00:39:08.520 That doesn't matter.

00:39:09.520 The point is that just saying it's a fact that one is a man and it's a fact that the other is a woman, 0.51

00:39:15.320 that's not an argument.

00:39:17.560 Even if you agree with the fact, you get that it's not an argument.

00:39:23.120 Saying something is a fact is not an argument.

00:39:27.180 The reason is not given.

00:39:29.120 That's cognitive dissonance.

00:39:30.720 So if you can't tell the difference between a fact that might be true and it might not be,

00:39:35.360 but it's irrelevant because it's not an argument either way.

00:39:39.160 Now, look in the comments.

00:39:40.480 Brian says, sure it is.

00:39:43.080 No, it isn't.

00:39:44.240 You're experiencing cognitive dissonance.

00:39:46.640 So if you agree with this, that's how you know it's cognitive dissonance.

00:39:51.160 You need a reason.

00:39:52.040 And just saying somebody's a woman, somebody's a man, that's either a fact or not a fact,

00:39:59.040 but it's not a reason.

00:40:01.380 Do you get that?

00:40:03.560 If that's confusing to you, you're experiencing cognitive dissonance in all likelihood.

00:40:10.140 All right, let's do another one.

00:40:11.820 Lady Hawk on Twitter says,

00:40:15.340 Society set up competitive groups of physical men and women athletics

00:40:20.820 so that how athletes have strategically trained to compete.

00:40:26.020 So that's how athletes have strategically trained to compete.

00:40:29.480 Since the changes being proposed have the biggest impact on physical women, 0.76

00:40:34.240 why not defer to their opinion similar to your stance on abortion?

00:40:38.140 Is that a reason or is that cognitive dissonance?

00:40:44.920 All right.

00:40:45.380 First of all, it says that we set things up with men and women as different teams

00:40:51.180 so that athletes have strategically trained to compete.

00:40:57.920 What's that mean?

00:41:00.020 Do athletes strategically train to compete differently

00:41:04.000 if they think a transgender athlete will be part of the mix?

00:41:08.560 How?

00:41:10.080 How would they train differently if they thought someday in the future

00:41:14.280 there would be a team?

00:41:16.360 It doesn't even make sense.

00:41:18.500 Everybody would train in the best way they could train,

00:41:21.100 no matter who their teammate is, right?

00:41:24.040 Are you going to train differently because one is extra strong?

00:41:29.720 Well, there must be extra strong women 1.00

00:41:31.600 who are competing against women who are less strong,

00:41:34.660 but I don't think they necessarily train differently.

00:41:37.320 So I'm not sure that holds up.

00:41:40.380 Maybe in some slight way you train differently,

00:41:42.680 but I can't imagine that would be enough to move this argument.

00:41:46.420 And then the second part of the argument is an analogy.

00:41:49.260 So I've said that men, such as me, and again, this is just personal,

00:41:54.300 I don't recommend it for other men, 0.99

00:41:56.360 but I've said that as a man,

00:41:58.360 I prefer to keep my opinions on abortion to myself

00:42:01.860 because of credibility.

00:42:05.400 Meaning that in abortion, you've got a decision that no matter which way it goes,

00:42:10.100 no matter which way the law is,

00:42:11.640 half of the country, or some number, is going to hate it.

00:42:16.660 And so in that world, in which you can't come to agreement,

00:42:20.280 that just won't be possible.

00:42:21.560 It'll always be disagreement.

00:42:23.100 The best thing you can do

00:42:24.660 is to have a decision that even the people who disagree with it say,

00:42:28.980 well, at least you made it the right way.

00:42:32.580 You know, you used the right process,

00:42:34.120 and the right people were involved.

00:42:35.800 Didn't go the way I wanted,

00:42:36.860 but I'm not arguing with the system.

00:42:39.720 So if you can make the system credible,

00:42:42.200 you can survive having deep agreement.

00:42:45.500 That's how democracy works, basically.

00:42:48.140 And I've said that having a man

00:42:50.220 who doesn't have any special insight into the topic,

00:42:53.860 adding an opinion to it

00:42:55.200 doesn't increase the credibility of the end point.

00:42:57.820 It decreases it.

00:42:59.320 Whereas, if I knew that the laws about abortion 0.80

00:43:01.940 were mostly made by women who have had babies

00:43:05.560 or could have babies 0.58

00:43:06.480 or are confused with people who could have babies,

00:43:09.780 then that's a more credible outcome.

00:43:13.380 Now, the argument about credibility

00:43:15.660 in a life-or-death question of abortion

00:43:17.860 has nothing to do with sports.

00:43:20.460 The analogy just doesn't fit.

00:43:22.440 Because in sports,

00:43:23.400 you're just trying to figure out what works.

00:43:25.940 It has nothing to do with a life-or-death decision

00:43:28.600 that people can't sort out.

00:43:30.060 So the analogy just falls apart.

00:43:31.520 And, by the way,

00:43:35.800 when it comes to questions of bigotry,

00:43:39.220 you don't follow the majority, right?

00:43:41.860 If the majority thought bigotry was great,

00:43:45.640 should you go with the majority?

00:43:47.760 No.

00:43:48.320 No.

00:43:48.580 Bigotry is the one thing

00:43:49.900 that the minority can rule.

00:43:53.800 Right?

00:43:54.900 That's how we got here.

00:43:56.380 It's the one thing where if 20% of the world said,

00:43:59.300 I think we should get rid of slavery

00:44:01.820 and somehow we had the power to make it happen,

00:44:05.180 it wouldn't matter that it wasn't popular.

00:44:07.760 In the end, you'd still be,

00:44:09.040 okay, glad we did that.

00:44:10.780 Right?

00:44:13.520 Here's another one.

00:44:16.420 Sportsboy says,

00:44:17.420 it is unfair for adults to compete on children's teams

00:44:20.160 because of the strength difference.

00:44:22.700 Now do you understand?

00:44:23.760 To which I say,

00:44:26.280 uh, what?

00:44:27.540 What?

00:44:29.040 What?

00:44:30.400 Given that nobody is having the conversation

00:44:33.040 about adults competing on children's teams,

00:44:36.020 it's not really a good analogy

00:44:38.700 because it's just a hypothetical absurdity.

00:44:42.880 Shouldn't we just compare real things?

00:44:44.840 If we're trying to figure out

00:44:45.900 how to make the real world work,

00:44:47.820 just compare real things, for example.

00:44:51.680 Now, I know you're going to say

00:44:52.920 the LeBron thing wasn't real,

00:44:54.160 but we'll, uh,

00:44:56.480 I don't want to untangle that right now.

00:44:58.780 Uh,

00:44:59.440 and it says,

00:45:01.340 women's sports exist 1.00

00:45:02.380 because otherwise women 1.00

00:45:04.200 wouldn't have anywhere to play.

00:45:06.900 Well, is that true?

00:45:08.680 Women wouldn't have anywhere to play 1.00

00:45:10.260 unless it were women's sports? 0.99

00:45:11.980 That's just a statement of

00:45:13.540 what definitions mean.

00:45:15.780 If you didn't have women's sports, 1.00

00:45:17.380 you wouldn't have women's sports. 1.00

00:45:18.720 It's not even a reason.

00:45:20.580 It's sort of a nothing.

00:45:22.140 So this just looks like Babel to me. 0.91

00:45:23.960 Looks like, uh,

00:45:25.280 crazy talk.

00:45:26.640 All right.

00:45:27.400 Uh,

00:45:27.660 which would be cognitive dissonance?

00:45:29.540 Here's another one.

00:45:30.380 Uh,

00:45:30.700 Slava,

00:45:31.520 Slava,

00:45:32.340 Slavix?

00:45:34.320 I don't know how to pronounce it.

00:45:36.280 On Twitter says,

00:45:37.100 you're ignoring,

00:45:37.800 talking to me,

00:45:38.660 you're ignoring that the ceiling

00:45:39.980 is what's different

00:45:40.920 between men and women.

00:45:43.940 What?

00:45:46.100 The ceiling.

00:45:47.080 In other words,

00:45:47.560 how high they can rise in the sports.

00:45:50.560 Um,

00:45:51.600 to which I say,

00:45:52.680 that's not a reason.

00:45:55.420 That's,

00:45:55.920 that's a statement of fact.

00:45:57.540 You could agree with it

00:45:58.780 or disagree with it,

00:45:59.640 but I think we'd all agree with it,

00:46:01.120 that,

00:46:01.620 you know,

00:46:01.940 men have a,

00:46:03.080 for most sports,

00:46:04.120 have a higher potential.

00:46:06.660 But so what?

00:46:08.140 There's no reason here.

00:46:09.740 So do you see the pattern yet?

00:46:11.580 The people who gave reasons,

00:46:13.300 you can agree or disagree,

00:46:14.480 but they're not in cognitive dissonance.

00:46:15.940 And the people who went after the speaker,

00:46:19.920 me,

00:46:20.880 probably have cognitive dissonance.

00:46:23.040 The people who couldn't tell the difference

00:46:25.000 between a fact and a reason

00:46:27.960 probably have cognitive dissonance.

00:46:31.060 So those are your,

00:46:31.760 your two,

00:46:32.380 your two tells.

00:46:33.920 Look for attacking the messenger

00:46:35.240 and confusing a fact with a reason.

00:46:38.440 And maybe even not even having the fact right.

00:46:40.240 Nash Volgai says to me,

00:46:46.020 you're not a sports fan,

00:46:47.660 so you are disqualified from having an input

00:46:50.020 in much the same fashion

00:46:51.740 about the abortion thing.

00:46:53.420 To which I say,

00:46:54.700 that's not a reason.

00:46:57.980 I'm not a sports fan,

00:46:59.760 so I'm disqualified for having an opinion

00:47:01.980 about something I completely understand

00:47:03.920 because I've been a sports fan in my past,

00:47:06.900 you know,

00:47:07.240 extensively.

00:47:09.880 These aren't even reasons.

00:47:11.980 You can't even agree or disagree.

00:47:13.920 They're nothings.

00:47:15.180 And that's what cognitive dissonance looks like.

00:47:19.100 Ricky says,

00:47:20.300 let's talk to Ricky.

00:47:21.440 Ricky says,

00:47:22.020 Scott,

00:47:22.260 I usually follow your logic,

00:47:23.820 but you've lost me today.

00:47:25.780 You are experiencing cognitive dissonance

00:47:28.460 in all likelihood.

00:47:30.520 Because if I asked you

00:47:32.420 to say a fact

00:47:33.900 where we disagree,

00:47:35.500 you wouldn't have any.

00:47:37.200 And if I said,

00:47:38.140 okay,

00:47:38.700 if we agree on the fact part,

00:47:41.860 tell me where the reasoning is wrong,

00:47:44.120 you wouldn't be able to do it.

00:47:45.760 How much effort would a person put into an argument

00:47:55.600 if they believe there's a low chance you'll see it?

00:47:57.960 Well,

00:47:58.440 that's fair too,

00:47:59.920 right?

00:48:00.280 Maybe people weren't trying hard enough.

00:48:03.240 But

00:48:03.720 that doesn't look like what's happening.

00:48:06.040 All right.

00:48:11.340 So,

00:48:12.280 here's where I come out

00:48:13.700 my honest,

00:48:15.960 full opinion

00:48:16.460 on transgender sports.

00:48:18.280 There's no such thing as fairness.

00:48:20.800 It's not a standard

00:48:21.960 that you can work to.

00:48:24.100 As soon as you imagine that there is

00:48:25.880 this thing called fairness,

00:48:27.400 you're sort of in some weird

00:48:28.620 imaginary cognitive dissonance world.

00:48:30.820 There's nothing like that.

00:48:31.980 There's just stuff you prefer.

00:48:33.380 And it's true 0.94

00:48:35.160 that there are tons of people

00:48:37.340 who prefer

00:48:38.180 that their daughters and sisters

00:48:40.360 and mothers and whatnot 1.00

00:48:41.520 do not compete

00:48:43.180 against somebody

00:48:44.560 that they clearly

00:48:45.720 don't have a competitive chance against.

00:48:48.720 So,

00:48:49.200 if somebody just says,

00:48:50.360 you know,

00:48:51.260 fairness aside,

00:48:52.480 we don't know what's fair

00:48:53.500 and what's not,

00:48:54.240 but I just have a preference

00:48:55.600 for the way things are.

00:48:57.060 I say to them,

00:48:58.640 that's a good opinion.

00:49:00.880 People can disagree with it,

00:49:02.420 but there's nothing wrong with it.

00:49:03.780 That's just completely honest.

00:49:05.040 I just like it the way it is.

00:49:06.600 It works for me.

00:49:07.920 Perfectly good argument.

00:49:12.560 And,

00:49:13.040 apparently,

00:49:14.520 I have to go

00:49:15.400 right now.

00:49:17.420 And I'm going to leave you with that

00:49:18.700 and I'll talk to you

00:49:20.340 tomorrow.

00:49:21.240 I'm going to love you

00:49:25.780 tomorrow.

00:49:30.840 So,

00:49:32.860 let's go in.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 23, 2021

Episode 1415 Scott Adams： Learn to Spot Your Own Cognitive Dissonance While Hating me at the Same Time. Fun!

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