Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1423 Scott Adams： Brains Versus Cowardice Versus Studies Versus Doctors. Come Sip.

00:00:00.000 on the ball. Those of you who are early risers and, dare I say, assertive self-starters,

00:00:08.080 you're all here early because you know that if you miss the simultaneous sip live,

00:00:14.020 well, you're going to have to do it recorded. And the recorded simultaneous sip,

00:00:18.980 while one of the best things in the world, is not the best thing in the world, which would be the

00:00:23.920 live simultaneous sip, which is coming at you just about now. And all you need is a cup or a mug or a

00:00:31.180 glass, a tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or a flask of vessel of any kind. How's my audio

00:00:39.540 today? Pretty good, right? Fill your cup with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now

00:00:47.340 for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything except

00:00:53.860 my audio better. It's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now. Go.

00:01:02.200 Mmm, did you get the live one? Yeah, it's better, isn't it? No surprise.

00:01:09.320 Well, may I start with the news of the day? The big news of the day is like the big news of yesterday

00:01:17.980 and the news of the day before, because there's not much big news happening. So we need something

00:01:25.580 to be afraid of. Are you ready? Beware of the Delta variable. The Delta variable is coming for you.

00:01:38.000 Oh yeah, you thought you were out of the woods? No, that doesn't sell clicks. How can you sell

00:01:44.100 advertisement on news programs if you've solved a pandemic? You can't. What you need is the Delta

00:01:52.440 variant. Beware of the Delta variant, which is under your bed. It's under your bed. It's in your closet,

00:02:00.160 children. Put on your masks. Beware of the Delta variable or variant. Now, I don't know how afraid of

00:02:10.080 the Delta variant you should be. I know I'm not afraid of it because I got vaccinated. 0.99

00:02:19.060 And, you know, the funny thing about vaccinations, if there's anything funny about them, is that it's

00:02:26.560 caused this cattle versus sheep kind of thing. We humans so love to be on a team and hate the other

00:02:34.760 team that will make a team out of anything. And suddenly it's like, oh, you're on the Moderna

00:02:40.800 vaccination team or the Pfizer team? Like, what if I don't want to be on a team? What if I just want

00:02:47.560 to get vaccinated? I don't have to be on a team, do I? So here's the thing. My particular vaccination

00:02:55.960 apparently is effective against the Delta variant. Oh, I might have other risks getting vaccinated,

00:03:02.220 vaccinated, but not the Delta variant. So your mileage may differ. But we'll see if the Delta

00:03:09.060 variant gets us because you got to be afraid of something. So the House of Representatives voted

00:03:14.720 yesterday to approve a resolution to create a committee to look into the January 6th Capitol attack.

00:03:23.680 Can you think of anything that you would like your government to do less than that? If you were to make a

00:03:30.880 list of all the things you think are important, that your government should look into, where would

00:03:38.760 you put on your list of top priorities for the country, where would you put form a committee to

00:03:45.440 look into the January 6th Capitol attack? I don't have any questions left about that, do you?

00:03:52.460 Suppose we find out there were some bad actors in the group. I don't care. It's not like a few bad

00:04:00.660 actors caused it to happen. They might have been there. Well, what if you find out that all the

00:04:06.640 people there had different motives? We kind of know that. What if you find out that a large group of

00:04:13.080 Americans had some really bad actors in it? Is there any possibility there weren't? Are there any large 0.99

00:04:20.720 group of Americans that don't have any bad actors in them? What if we find out there were FBI assets

00:04:26.700 in the group? Of course there were. So? We already know that. Do you think the FBI informants or assets

00:04:37.520 caused the riots? Do you think they pushed them? Well, you don't need a committee to look into that,

00:04:43.240 do you? It seems like law enforcement would be looking into that. Or not. So I don't see any purpose in this

00:04:51.680 whatsoever except political, just to keep it as a story. I think, was it McCarthy who warned that you would

00:04:59.540 lose your committee assignments if you're a Republican and you join this committee? So I don't know that this

00:05:05.680 would go anywhere. Very political. Completely useless. Big story of the day? Well, Britney Spears is still a 1.00

00:05:16.820 prisoner of her conservatorship. I guess she was unsuccessful in getting that released. But Bill

00:05:24.060 Cosby is a free man. That's right. Britney Spears is still under a conservatorship, dancing away in her

00:05:32.940 bikini. But Bill Cosby, free man. Now, I don't want to cause anybody to feel bad about this story.

00:05:45.780 If you've been a victim of any kind of crime like this, or know anybody who has, or you're just a

00:05:50.380 good person, you're probably quite offended by this story of Bill Cosby going free. It turns out that he

00:05:57.480 is accused by approximately 60 women of a very similar crime. Six zero. 60 women. How does your lawyer

00:06:11.060 get you out of jail when 60 women have accused you of a similar horrible crime? What kind of a lawyer can

00:06:21.660 do that? Well, here's the basic idea. Most of these, or all of them, I think, were past the statute of

00:06:31.480 limitations. So there was only one that was the subject of his going to jail. And it turns out that

00:06:39.440 he had some kind of oral agreement. Everything sounds naughty when you're talking about Cosby now. He had an

00:06:46.520 oral agreement with a lawyer, not a lawyer, a prosecutor, that he wouldn't be prosecuted for

00:06:52.020 that one crime. If he was forthcoming on the civil case, I don't really understand the details of that.

00:07:00.420 But apparently, he got some kind of immunity for the one thing that he was being prosecuted for.

00:07:08.000 And it took them two years to sort that out. And a court finally decided, yeah, you're right,

00:07:13.500 you have the immunity. So you can't be prosecuted for the one that they could prosecute. And a 60.

00:07:21.360 So how often can a rich guy get out of jail with good lawyering, lawyer lawyering? It's kind of

00:07:32.280 impressive in a horrible way, isn't it? I mean, is it is it possible to say every normal criminal who's

00:07:40.840 not famous? Do they also have a get out of jail free card if they just lawyer well enough? Because

00:07:48.120 really, this was just the quality of the lawyering, right? That's the only thing that made them get

00:07:52.680 out of jail. I can't imagine that other people would have gotten out of jail, even in the same

00:07:57.240 circumstances. The funniest part of this story, and when I say funny, I mean, like you're going to

00:08:05.700 vomit funny. Harvey Weinstein's lawyer thinks that Harvey will be next. Oh, that's bad. My computer

00:08:16.540 just glitched. Let's see if I'm still on there. All right. And I love the fact, I love the fact that

00:08:25.280 Harvey Weinstein's lawyer is trying to make a comparison. Because first of all, Cosby is

00:08:32.140 apparently guilty as hell. Sixty women accused him. You know, it's hard to imagine he's not guilty.

00:08:41.500 But to therefore say that because he got off on that one technicality, that Harvey Weinstein is

00:08:47.200 just like him and was falsely accused, it takes a lot of lawyer balls to make that argument.

00:08:54.160 But Harvey Weinstein's lawyer is making that argument that because this completely unrelated

00:09:02.300 case where the guy is guilty as fuck got off on a technicality, therefore, his client, who has 0.86

00:09:10.420 nothing to do with Cosby whatsoever in a completely different situation, should also be suffering.

00:09:15.680 Totally logical. Not. All right. On school choice, we've been watching the change in attitudes here.

00:09:28.480 So listen to this. According to Corey DeAngelis in a tweet yesterday, a year ago-ish, 64% of the public

00:09:37.720 was in favor of funding the students instead of the school system, meaning that the student could take

00:09:43.680 their funding and go to any other school that would accept it and the money would just travel with the

00:09:49.500 student instead of going to a public school. So now it's going from 64% were in favor of the money

00:09:58.100 following the student up to 74% now. 74% of those surveyed want the funding schedule thing to change.

00:10:12.000 And in fact, a lot of states are looking into doing that. And somebody asked if Harvey Weinstein is

00:10:22.660 really guilty because he was just trading sex for fame. No, I don't think that was all he was doing.

00:10:29.760 He was masturbating into a plant at one point, and I don't think he traded anything for that.

00:10:35.780 I think he just assaulted a plant. So no, it is not fair to say that all he did was trade sex

00:10:44.080 for fame. He was actually a rapist, it seems. All right, but back to school choice. It's icky to put

00:10:53.120 these topics right next to each other, but I did it anyway. See if we can deal with it. So 74% of

00:10:59.680 those polled say that the funding should follow the student, what do I tell you about the 25% rule?

00:11:07.020 You see it over and over again. 25% of the public will answer the dumbest answer on any poll.

00:11:15.840 The poll could be, are you in favor of oxygen? 25% of the public would say, I don't think so.

00:11:23.340 I'm not trusting that oxygen, and I don't think oxygen is real. I think it's fake.

00:11:28.660 It doesn't matter what the question is. 25% of the public can be reliable idiots. And so on the

00:11:35.700 school choice thing, we've hit the idiot level. So I think I've told you before that we should

00:11:41.620 consider 75% being on the same side as unanimous, because that is all the smart people.

00:11:47.980 The other 25% are just the frickin' morons who would vote against oxygen and clean water and

00:11:56.440 anything. For whatever reason, a solid 25% are against everything. All right, so fire season is

00:12:04.700 starting in California. So that's the end of my happiness. If you might remember last year,

00:12:11.640 the pandemic was in place, but well, at least we could go outdoors. Not really. If you were in

00:12:17.920 California and it was summer, you couldn't even go outdoors. So you couldn't go anywhere indoors,

00:12:24.280 but you also couldn't go outdoors for many weeks in California. And that sucks. Let me tell you,

00:12:32.760 when you can't go indoors and you can't go outdoors, you've got a very small world,

00:12:37.080 and it's not cool. But I'm entering that phase now. So we had a good solid month where the coronavirus was

00:12:43.740 less and the mask wearing was released if you were vaccinated and the air was clear. And now that

00:12:52.260 appears to be ending. And I'm going into the long, dark period of California because California is so

00:12:57.940 poorly managed that we let a problem, which we know to be a problem, persist. It doesn't change anything.

00:13:05.060 Nope. We just keep on going with the same problems. So there was a study on masks and kids, a randomized

00:13:16.720 controlled trial. Those are the good kind, right? If it's randomized and it's controlled, it's a pretty

00:13:25.020 good trial. Now that doesn't mean it's right. I think we've all learned that you can't trust any

00:13:31.380 individual study. It's just not a thing you should trust. But this study said there was

00:13:36.280 a problem with carbon dioxide and kids and masks. So if kids wore masks for any length of time,

00:13:44.480 the quality of the air they were breathing went down. So less oxygen, more carbon dioxide. And

00:13:51.100 apparently that has some types of health risks. And so the suggestion is that maybe masks are bad for

00:13:59.900 kids. Did you need a study for that? I'm not sure you needed a study to decide not to put masks on kids,

00:14:08.120 but your mileage might differ. Maybe you're afraid of the Delta variant. Beware the Delta variant. Put

00:14:16.180 masks on the kids because the Delta variant is coming for you. So I wondered how long it would take 0.66

00:14:23.560 for somebody to debunk this study. It took Andres Backhouse about five minutes until he saw my tweet

00:14:31.180 and came in and said, you know, every time Andres or Anatoly Lubarsky, my two favorite critics,

00:14:43.000 anytime they criticize something, I just shake my head because it's usually something I should have

00:14:47.880 seen. You know, even with my limited analytical abilities, even I should have seen it, but I

00:14:52.840 didn't really look for it usually. Here's what Andres says about this study. He says in the JMA paper,

00:15:01.580 there's no difference when measuring only the inhaled air. They have to throw in inhaled and

00:15:07.320 exhaled air to find something. Now, I'm not sure I totally understand that, but it looks like on the

00:15:15.520 surface that the inhaled air was fine. But the exhaled air had too much carbon dioxide in it? How's

00:15:26.120 that even a thing? I don't even know how that could be a thing. But the suggestion is that maybe you

00:15:33.860 should ignore that paper, you know, or at least wait for more papers to confirm it. But put a little

00:15:41.300 asterisk next to that paper. That said, children in masks seems like a bad idea to me. So it's been a

00:15:50.600 few days now since Tucker Carlson talked about the NSA spying on him. And no news organizations seem to

00:15:57.980 be agreeing with him, including his own. And the NSA has denied it in a way that confirmed it. Now,

00:16:05.640 we talked about this yesterday, the NSA's overly specific denial is as clear a confirmation that

00:16:13.020 it happened as anything, just clearly confirming it. And we just moved on. How did that happen?

00:16:22.740 This should be one of the biggest stories in the country, if not the world, that the government

00:16:28.900 was spying on a political person, you know, somebody who talks on the news. And they basically

00:16:37.240 confirmed it by denying it in a way that really does confirm it. And we just let that go. I guess

00:16:44.520 there's just nothing you can do about it. You know, maybe there's some legal thing that Tucker's looking

00:16:48.620 into. But can you see how thoroughly the news business can just make a story go away? They just made this

00:16:58.260 thing go away. I don't know what would be bigger than this. I'm seeing Matt Gaetz is calling for an

00:17:06.560 investigation, as well he should, because you know Matt Gaetz is being invested, is being watched by

00:17:12.580 the NSA. Don't you? Don't you figure that Matt Gaetz is being spied on? One way or another. Now, it may

00:17:20.900 not be directly, they may have some, some case in which they're looking for somebody else's stuff,

00:17:26.380 but they just get his incidentally. But I would say that the odds that Matt Gaetz is not being spied

00:17:32.960 on by our government is low. It's probably low. I'm almost sure he is. In fact, I think the odds

00:17:40.360 that my digital communications are compromised are 100%. I mean, I don't know that there's any chance

00:17:49.620 they're not. I would say that if you have any public standing in terms of politics, and standing

00:17:56.760 in this case just means you talk about it, you have an audience. If you have an audience, and you might

00:18:02.520 be persuading people one way or another, I feel like your digital communications is all penetrated by now.

00:18:09.100 If not by my own country, then by, you know, foreign intelligence people. I would think that somebody

00:18:17.760 would want to blackmail me by now. Isn't it weird that I haven't, well, you wouldn't know. I guess I

00:18:23.320 wouldn't admit it if I had been. But I haven't been blackmailed by anybody, strangely enough. And again,

00:18:30.780 if I had been, I suppose I'd lie about it. All right. Damn it, my laptop keeps dying here.

00:18:38.800 And that makes me think that... Over on Locals, can you tell me if my feed just went dark when my

00:18:45.760 computer timed out? And I don't think my computer should be timing out when I've got a live stream

00:18:50.760 going. So Locals, make the... See what you can do to make sure my screen doesn't go to screensaver.

00:18:59.700 All right. As Adam Dopamine said today on Twitter, now, Adam is a medical doctor. He's an MD.

00:19:12.080 And he tweets this. When you see 97% of doctors agreeing on whatever, that is meaningless. It's

00:19:19.400 a lie of consensus. Now, on some level, you knew that, right? You knew that just because everybody

00:19:24.680 agreed, that doesn't necessarily make it true. But let's take that to a deeper level.

00:19:29.700 He says, as an MD, I can attest that the vast maturity of doctors outside of universities

00:19:35.800 do zero primary research. We know what we read in journals, learn at conferences, or hear

00:19:42.820 on the lay news. So in other words, the doctors are basically getting their information the same

00:19:49.800 way you are. And they don't have any special expertise to know if it's true.

00:19:54.520 So if there's one study, and then the doctors read it, all the doctors will agree, and you'll

00:20:03.060 say to yourself, well, all those doctors agree. But it doesn't mean anything. Because the doctors

00:20:08.320 are just looking at the same thing you're looking at. Oh, there's a study. You looked at it,

00:20:12.780 and it said X works. The doctor looked at it and said X works. And you came to the same conclusion.

00:20:17.940 The doctor added nothing. Now, and if you don't know that, that all the doctors agree literally

00:20:26.220 means nothing. Let me take you back to, and I think Adam pointed this out, that do you remember

00:20:35.280 when we were told that 17 intelligence agencies agreed on, what was it, on Russia collusion or

00:20:42.280 something? Do you remember that? There were 17 intelligence agencies agreed. Who was, and this

00:20:50.540 will be a test of your memory, anybody who's been following me for a while, who was the only person

00:20:55.540 in the country, I think, the only person, public person, who was the only public person in the country

00:21:02.820 who said, as soon as I saw the 17 intelligence agencies, that really means one. Who else immediately

00:21:11.200 said no? 17 agencies means one. The other 16 didn't reproduce the work. They just looked at the

00:21:19.540 one. Something's happening. There's some noise happening here. Right. So if you worked in a large

00:21:32.180 organization, as I did, and you happen to be the author of the Dilbert comic, if you're the author of

00:21:38.740 Dilbert comic, you know how bureaucracies work, that the agreement is just people agreeing with

00:21:47.160 other people, right? So, and I see some other names in the comments, but I think I might have been the

00:21:55.040 first to say it out loud. Yeah, a lot of people who were maybe not in the public eye were saying it

00:22:01.800 privately. So I don't claim that nobody else thought of it, but I don't think anybody was dumb enough to

00:22:06.620 say it out loud as soon as I did. So whenever you see that, just keep in mind that you're not talking

00:22:13.820 about experts looking at the experts. You're talking about people just like you looking at

00:22:18.200 experts. Now, Andres Backhouse weighed in on this, and he said in a tweet, I was recently reminded by a

00:22:25.500 German MD, that medicine as a study program doesn't aim at qualifying for scientific medical research.

00:22:36.220 Meaning that if you study to be a doctor, you have not learned how to do medical research,

00:22:42.100 and therefore, you haven't learned how to read it either. So you can get through the program,

00:22:48.160 says Andres, without having read a single paper, or having analyzed data. You can become a doctor

00:22:55.260 without ever looking at a published study and learning how to read it correctly, or analyze it,

00:23:00.360 or be critical. So those are the people who are telling you what to believe. People you believe are

00:23:07.460 qualified, but have never even taken the courses. Who would you trust? Somebody like Andres,

00:23:15.160 somebody with an economics background who has studied, you know, at least can look at data and

00:23:20.080 studies and know if at least the math is done right. Who are you going to study? Who are you

00:23:25.440 going to believe? Somebody who's not a doctor, but knows how to look at a study, or somebody who is a

00:23:31.020 doctor who doesn't know how to look at a study. So those are your choices. I would like to nominate

00:23:39.960 myself for the Nobel Prize in either science or medicine. And I'm open to whichever one they'd

00:23:46.780 like to give me, maybe both. So I'm going to present to you now, to you now, my proposal for

00:23:53.700 why I should receive a Nobel Prize in science or medicine, either one, both would be fine. And I'm

00:24:02.480 going to give you my scientific theory that will change everything. Are you ready? This is based

00:24:09.440 not on my medical understanding, of course. This is based not on my scientific understanding,

00:24:16.380 of course. This is based on pattern recognition and being pretty good at hearing a dog that doesn't

00:24:23.080 bark. And it goes like this. And I'm going to lay out my argument. There is a mystery about viruses,

00:24:30.960 which is why they go away. Why do they ever go away? Now, if I said to you, why is it that viruses

00:24:38.160 go away in the summer? I know from experience, every one of you who are not doctors and not

00:24:44.000 virologists will be quite sure you know the answer. And you'll say to me, well, Scott, it's obvious.

00:24:49.860 It's warmer and viruses don't like that. People go outdoors. They don't have the indoor air

00:24:55.040 conditioning, circulating things. They get more vitamin D, so they're healthier. The virus has

00:25:00.940 mutated by then. Scott, don't you know that people have reached herd immunity by then, right? You

00:25:07.740 would have lots of reasons why viruses go away. But did you know that the experts don't believe

00:25:15.840 any of them? Meaning that everything you can think of for why any virus goes away, forget about

00:25:22.300 coronavirus, just any virus, Spanish flu, any virus, any seasonal virus, why does it ever go away?

00:25:31.100 The experts don't know. The experts don't know. So when you say it's obvious it's vitamin D,

00:25:39.180 the experts thought of that, right? You're not the one who thought of it. The experts looked into

00:25:45.580 vitamin D. They looked into everything and they can't find it. They can't find the reason

00:25:52.460 that a virus goes away. Did you know that? It's a fascinating fact. Now, it could be the combination

00:25:59.420 of things. But here's the problem. Every time you say the reason the virus goes away is that it has

00:26:06.620 something to do with seasonality. Here's the problem. It's always winter somewhere.

00:26:13.580 And these viruses are global. The virus should always be able to hide wherever the conditions

00:26:19.980 are still good. And then because people are traveling around the world routinely,

00:26:24.460 that the virus would just go wherever it can live the best and might... Hello?

00:26:37.740 All right. And it would just go wherever it needs to live. So in theory, any virus that has not reached

00:26:45.580 herd immunity, and that appears to be everything, because even the Spanish flu, I don't think ever 0.96

00:26:52.460 came close. I don't believe it ever came close to herd immunity. So things are going away for

00:26:57.980 reasons we don't know. Here is why I'll get the Nobel Prize, because I'm going to tell you what the

00:27:03.660 secret is. You ready? Here are things we know. Number one, we know that the amount of viral load you

00:27:12.620 get initially determines how sick you get. Everybody agree with that? The amount you initially get

00:27:18.380 is very highly correlated with how sick you get. I think everybody agrees with that. Therefore,

00:27:26.700 if you got just a small exposure to it, while you are otherwise healthy, would you get immunity

00:27:35.420 that didn't show up when you were being tested for immunity? So here's my hypothesis,

00:27:42.620 why I'll get the Nobel Prize for science, or possibly medicine, or possibly both.

00:27:48.700 I believe that what's unique about the summer is that people get exposed to micro doses of the virus,

00:27:56.380 and that they develop something like a pre-immunity, meaning that if you check them for antibodies,

00:28:03.020 maybe you wouldn't find them the way you're expecting to find them, but that your body has been

00:28:09.900 warned, essentially. Basically, it's been prepped by tiny little exposures, but not enough to make you

00:28:16.700 sick, because you're out in the sun, and you're outdoors, and maybe you get a little whiff of it

00:28:20.940 from passing somebody. So my hypothesis is herd immunity, but not measurable, meaning that if you

00:28:31.660 measured antibodies in the normal way, you just wouldn't find it, but that there's something about the

00:28:38.300 micro exposure that preps some bodies, in a way that maybe is hard to detect, to just be a little

00:28:45.020 bit more alert for this specific problem, and it just gets on it faster, because that could be it.

00:28:51.660 It could be nothing more than some bodies are responding faster. Now, I suppose the other

00:28:58.140 possibility is that some people have natural immunity to anything, and that herd immunity doesn't really

00:29:02.940 have to be 70%, maybe it needs to be 35%, and we've never been right about herd immunity. That's the

00:29:08.620 other possibility.

00:29:13.020 Somebody says, nope, no Nobel for you. All right, well, that's, I'm going to stick with that hypothesis,

00:29:18.460 that it has to be something about your, some bodies prepping, but not in a way that we can detect.

00:29:23.980 All right. It'll probably take 10 or 20 years for me to get that Nobel Prize, but I'm patient. I can

00:29:30.380 wait. I would like my critics to make up their minds. My critics call me a coward. Sometimes they

00:29:39.580 call me a coward for saying that face masks work in some situations, and that I'm a coward for taking

00:29:48.620 that position. But at the same time, the fact that I got a vaccination with this so-called risky

00:29:55.420 experimental vaccine makes me foolhardy. So I am simultaneously a coward about masks. At the

00:30:04.700 same time, I should be much more afraid, but I'm not, about vaccines. So could my critics make up their

00:30:12.060 mind? Am I a coward or am I foolhardy? Because I can't be both. And if you're going to criticize me,

00:30:20.860 at least be consistent. Will you? Am I foolhardy or am I a coward? Please make up your mind.

00:30:28.700 Well, I would like to add this. If you would like to find who the dumbest people in the world,

00:30:33.100 they're the ones who call anybody a coward for a risk management decision.

00:30:37.500 All of us are making risk management decisions. All of us are trying to make the decision that

00:30:46.540 lowers our risk. If you're trying to make decisions that lower your risk based on, you know, incomplete

00:30:54.140 data and the best you can do about making your guess, are you a coward or are you like every

00:31:00.140 fucking person in the world with every fucking decision for every fucking year, every fucking 0.99

00:31:06.460 minute of the whole fucking civilization? All of your decisions, yours, mine, everybody's decisions,

00:31:18.140 are comparing risks. That's everybody all the time with every decision. If your best analysis is that

00:31:27.900 somebody was a coward, you're a fucking idiot. And I hate to be the first to tell you,

00:31:34.220 you don't know how to analyze anything. You're just a fucking idiot. If, if, if that's your filter

00:31:42.220 on life, it's like, Oh, this one's a coward. He got a vaccine. He's so afraid. He's so afraid of the

00:31:49.660 coronavirus or he's wearing a mask because it's law. He must be a coward. What kind of a coward is he?

00:31:57.980 Please, if, if your best analytical approach is calling somebody a coward because they made a different

00:32:08.860 risk management decision than you did, don't talk in public. Please don't ever talk in public. You do not have

00:32:17.180 the brains to say things out loud, right? At the very least talk in terms of risk management. Perhaps you have a

00:32:25.180 different opinion of the risk. Let's say you're one of these people like, uh, sticks and hex and hammer, six, six, six,

00:32:34.540 six, who, uh, apparently has decided that the risk of getting the vaccine is higher than the risk of getting the

00:32:43.180 coronavirus. Is he right? What do you think? Is, uh, sticks and hex and hammer, six, six, six, six on Twitter. A lot of you

00:32:53.180 know, very reasonable guy, right? If you've watched his show, you know, he's very reason based, very rational. Is that the

00:33:00.860 right decision? How the fuck would you know? How the fuck would you know? If, if the risk of getting the vaccination is higher,

00:33:12.180 higher in the long run than not getting it, you don't know that. Now I made a decision, but is it because I

00:33:20.660 know that my, my risk management is right? No, no. Am I going to tell you that the sticks and hex and hammer,

00:33:28.020 six, six, six, six got it wrong? No, no. How the fuck would I know? Do you know how much the risk of the,

00:33:38.180 I don't know, the, the, the variants that are caused by the vaccination, the long-term effects

00:33:43.460 of the vaccination? Somebody says he's right. Paul, you don't know if he's right. You couldn't know that.

00:33:53.380 Nobody, Einstein couldn't know that. All the smartest people in the world can't know that. It's

00:33:59.260 unknowable. 100 fucking percent unknowable. But you still have to make a decision, right? So I made a

00:34:08.880 decision based on a number of variables. And one of the variables was that it would free me up to,

00:34:15.180 you know, travel and not have to wear a mask and stuff. Now, did I make the correct decision

00:34:20.660 to get the vaccination? How the fuck would I know? It's impossible to know. Nobody has enough

00:34:29.820 information about the future to know which way is right. I'll tell you what, what I was influenced

00:34:36.340 by. I was influenced by, um, the fact that, uh, apparently most side effects happen early.

00:34:43.780 So I had waited a number of months and I'd saw how many, you know, side effects there seemed to be

00:34:50.380 compared to how many people got the vaccination. And it looked like if most side effects happen early,

00:34:56.420 there weren't that many compared to what I saw as the risk of the coronavirus. Am I right?

00:35:03.200 Is that, is that a, uh, uh, let's say accurate or useful analysis? How the fuck would I know?

00:35:10.600 It's unknowable, right? I do know it made me feel better, right? So whoever says, John, you're dead

00:35:21.100 wrong. Everybody who has certainty about the risks of vaccination versus the risks of not vaccination,

00:35:28.860 all the people with certainty are, are you're idiots. You're just idiots. I'm sorry. And you should

00:35:35.480 not watch this live stream anymore. You're not smart enough to watch this live stream.

00:35:39.680 You could be, uh, you could be, uh, confident that you made the right decision for yourself.

00:35:48.160 That would be fair. You could be confident that there are certain type of risks you're not

00:35:52.700 comfortable with, but maybe other kinds that you are. Oh, that would be fair. That would be a

00:35:57.600 reasonable decision. But if you say to yourself, you're dead wrong to get the vaccination,

00:36:03.280 or you're dead wrong not to get the vaccination, you're an idiot. There's no way around that.

00:36:12.080 That's like brain that doesn't work. You can't fucking know what was the right decision. You just

00:36:18.380 have to take your best shot at it. If I'm wrong, and let's say I get a horrible disease from the

00:36:25.400 vaccination. I'm not expecting that. Well, let's say I do. Would you then say, well, Scott, I told

00:36:31.380 you. Well, if you do, you're a fucking idiot because you didn't know you got lucky. Somebody's

00:36:38.840 going to be right, right? Somebody in the long run will look more right than somebody else. It's not

00:36:44.340 because you're fucking new. You don't fucking know. You're guessing. All right. So get over yourself.

00:36:51.160 If you're confident that you're positive about vaccinations, you're a fucking idiot because

00:36:56.780 nobody should be confident about this at all. At all. All right. Maybe I've taken that too far.

00:37:07.580 Here's what Queen of the Universe Elect says on Twitter to my points about this. She said about 0.99

00:37:14.760 masks and about vaccination. She says, both are evidence of your cowardice. You were so afraid

00:37:21.140 of the pandemic, the pandemic, that you got the risky vaccine. It wasn't out of foolhardiness.

00:37:27.940 It was out of cowardice. This fear is so deep that you believe we should all be forcibly vaccinated

00:37:33.600 to protect you. It's very sad. No, I don't believe you should all be forcibly vaccinated to protect

00:37:43.360 me. Do you know why? I got the vaccination. I don't need you to be vaccinated.

00:37:50.500 So opposite, opposite of that. I'm unafraid because I'm vaccinated.

00:37:57.880 Was I ever afraid of masks? No, I just didn't like them. You know, for a variety of obvious reasons.

00:38:04.940 Yeah. So it's a mind reading and it's someone who is sure that my bravery and my cowardice are exactly the

00:38:11.860 same. Thinking. This is, this is people who imagine they can think, but they really can't.

00:38:19.940 These are really, really dumb people who have certainty about this. Okay. So don't be the

00:38:25.600 certain person. You could be for vaccinations or against them. That's fine. I think you could make

00:38:30.260 an argument either way, but don't be certain. Don't be that person. All right.

00:38:39.260 Let's see. There's a study that says that the COVID can destroy your penis. So there's a study that

00:38:47.140 found that people had recovered, still had COVID in their penis. And at least a few cases, not enough

00:38:56.420 to be statistically relevant yet, but anecdotally, there's some people who seem to have become

00:39:02.360 impotent after getting the coronavirus and it's still in their penis. Now the doctors haven't been

00:39:12.360 specific about this, but I think this is an obvious case like breast exams. You should, you should examine 0.85

00:39:19.520 your penis on a regular basis. Um, I think that's what Jeffrey Toobin was doing. A lot of people think

00:39:25.940 he was pleasuring himself, but that was really a self-examination. He was wondering if he'd been

00:39:30.600 infected with the COVID, uh, the COVID virus. And he was just finding out, uh, it was just an examination

00:39:35.880 to see if his junk was still working. And apparently he was so good for you. All right. Now, how much,

00:39:43.220 uh, how much should you put in your belief that coronavirus will make you impotent?

00:39:52.580 Probably not a lot, probably not a ton, but you've got the long haul problem with COVID,

00:40:01.000 but allegedly people have had, uh, problems with the vaccination, which one is bigger. So for all of

00:40:08.740 you who are just positive, you are just positive in your opinion for all of you, tell me the risk

00:40:15.480 of having a vaccination out bad outcome versus the risk of having a long-term coronavirus problem.

00:40:24.720 Remember that's even if you live having a long, long haul problem. So what are the risks? So many

00:40:32.060 of you are very, very certain of the risks. So for all of you who are so certain, please compare with

00:40:38.540 compared to me in the comments, give me the risk of a vaccine vaccination bad outcome versus the risk

00:40:46.120 of a coronavirus long haul problem. What, what you don't know, but you were so certain just minutes

00:40:55.420 ago. What, where are all my, where are all my convinced people who are so sure that one of those

00:41:02.520 choices is cowardice? Well, obviously you would know the risks because you couldn't compare the

00:41:08.400 risks to know which one is the cowardice one. Unless you knew the risk. Is it 1%? All right.

00:41:23.040 You know, and let me say, somebody said, I'm changing minds about getting the vaccination.

00:41:28.320 That's not my intention. I'm quite adamant about the fact that you shouldn't get your medical advice

00:41:34.920 from cartoonists. All right. That's not, I don't say that just as a bumper sticker. Really,

00:41:41.180 seriously, don't get your medical advice from cartoonists. But if I can help you think about

00:41:45.980 it a different way and you can talk to your medical experts more productively, maybe that's good.

00:41:52.020 But don't, don't get your decisions from the cartoonists. Don't do that. All right.

00:41:57.360 And I think I just lost the feed here because my laptop keeps dying. So sorry about the screensaver

00:42:07.900 going out on locals. All right. Just look, I'm looking at some of your comments. We're all good

00:42:18.380 over there. Good. Thank you. It's back. All right. Yeah. So the screensaver was knocking my live feed

00:42:25.300 off on my laptop. It doesn't happen on here. So I'll have to, so I've told you every time I add a

00:42:30.480 complication to the live streaming, it does go bad. The complication here is that using the laptop as a,

00:42:37.320 the screensaver that I need to deactivate. So that's one more thing I have to remember to do.

00:42:46.380 Still working on the microphones. By the way, I'm going to try to get my Rodecaster working.

00:42:51.320 I figured out how to give phantom power to some microphones on it, which was not obvious at

00:42:57.480 first, but I figured out my phantom power problem. And now I got to figure out how to get

00:43:02.220 sound out of the Rodecaster. So this is how far I got. I've got a mixing board where I can get the

00:43:09.200 sound into it now with all of my microphones. I just can't get any sound out of it. I've got to figure

00:43:14.820 that out. Here's a question. I might never get the virus. Why risk taking the vaccination?

00:43:25.940 Donnie, I just don't know what to say to that. I just don't know what to say to that.

00:43:34.860 If, if you don't know the risk of the vaccination, and you also don't know the risk of getting the

00:43:41.340 virus, you don't know which one's bigger. And nobody can tell you. Nobody else knows either.

00:43:49.980 Nobody knows that stuff. You're going to have to make the decision without knowing

00:43:53.620 which one is the bigger risk. Now, I happen to feel that given that the fact that most vaccinations

00:44:02.320 are going to show you a bad impact fairly quickly, that gives me some comfort, along with the fact that

00:44:08.760 we know that it does create antibodies and it does work. So we know it works. And we know that the

00:44:14.600 period where you would see the most problems doesn't seem to be a big risk. Of course, some people will

00:44:21.240 always have problems with a mass rollout of any kind of new medicine. All right. Somebody says,

00:44:33.620 Moderna gave you a vertigo. Well, keep in mind, if you're like most people, you get at least one

00:44:39.000 mystery illness per week. Is there anybody who doesn't get a mystery illness every week? Like

00:44:45.540 I'll wake up and like, ow, my earlobe. Ow, why does my earlobe hurt? And it'll hurt all day and

00:44:52.760 it'll just go away. The next day you wake up, it's like, ah, my sinus, my sinus. Pretty much every

00:45:00.260 week, right? Have you, have you ever gone a week where you didn't have at least one mystery illness?

00:45:05.740 My ankle. Ah, ah, I can barely walk on this one ankle. Well, okay. It's, it's okay by tomorrow.

00:45:13.080 How could it be possible that people, people, you know, tens of millions of people getting the

00:45:18.940 vaccination? Of course, there should be millions of stories of people who got the vaccination.

00:45:25.520 And then, ow, my eye, my eye. Of course, it has to happen. It can't not happen. You know,

00:45:33.060 just the, the, the way numbers work. All right. I think I have, uh, angered everybody. Those people

00:45:43.640 who have a certainty about their risk management decisions have all gone away because I've either

00:45:50.900 shamed you or you've, you'll never watch me again. Uh, one of those two things is happening

00:45:56.960 right now. Uh, somebody says a coworker got vertigo badly. Um, I, I don't know that vertigo

00:46:05.880 is necessarily a vaccination problem, but I'm open to it. Could be. All right. Um,

00:46:13.680 that's all for now. I'm going to turn off, uh, YouTube. I'm going to talk to my locals people

00:46:20.020 here for another minute and I will see you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - July 01, 2021

Episode 1423 Scott Adams： Brains Versus Cowardice Versus Studies Versus Doctors. Come Sip.

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