Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1427 Scott Adams： I Tell you Why You Shouldn't Listen to Doctors Who Don't Understand Statistics. And More.

00:00:00.660 It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams, the best time of the day.

00:00:06.420 Well, it's 4th of July, the 5th.

00:00:10.700 We're celebrating like demons here at the United States,

00:00:14.420 our Monday off, even though it's not really the holiday.

00:00:18.200 And I would like to kick this Monday off with, well,

00:00:23.160 really the best thing that's ever happened to you.

00:00:25.060 It's called the simultaneous sip, and all you need is a cup or mug or a glass,

00:00:27.840 a tanker, chelsea, stein, a canteen, junk, a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:33.340 Fill it with your favorite liquid, like coffee.

00:00:36.240 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day,

00:00:41.660 the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:44.660 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it's going to rock your world now.

00:00:48.320 Go.

00:00:48.500 Go.

00:00:48.560 Well, because it's normal, it looks like my locals' broadcast is not working.

00:01:05.940 I told you there's a problem whenever you have any one piece of extra technology.

00:01:14.560 This thing is not working.

00:01:20.220 And I'll show you why.

00:01:29.260 So there's a bad battery on one part of my hardware,

00:01:33.800 which is making this stream not working.

00:01:37.960 So we're going to end this.

00:01:38.880 All right, the locals is turned off.

00:01:45.220 Now, that was not a problem with the locals' platform.

00:01:48.820 I've been experimenting with my various different types of sound equipment,

00:01:56.840 and one of them has this fatal flaw that it takes a battery.

00:01:59.900 What are the odds that I would be organized enough to have a spare battery all the time?

00:02:09.200 To always have a spare battery and to be able to hot-swap it as soon as I'm ready.

00:02:14.760 So this is a problem with almost all of the audio solutions that I've tested so far.

00:02:22.160 They all have some kind of a fatal flaw.

00:02:25.860 Anyway, so let's continue with this.

00:02:28.440 Jonathan Trolley has interesting comments about Hunter's laptop.

00:02:35.140 Have you heard about Hunter's laptop?

00:02:39.300 Well, apparently there's more and more information that Hunter was acting as a conduit

00:02:47.160 for deals that would involve his father's influence when his father was vice president.

00:02:52.280 And there's yet another story about this coming out from an ex-FBI director, Louis Free.

00:02:59.540 And I guess he made some donations to some Biden charity and then asked for some business deals.

00:03:10.280 Now, if anything like this had happened to any of the Trump kids or that family,

00:03:18.400 this would be, of course, the biggest story in the news.

00:03:21.540 But this has every element to be a gigantic national story.

00:03:27.120 But it isn't.

00:03:28.740 It just isn't.

00:03:29.520 So the media has simply decided, as Jonathan Trolley is pointing out here,

00:03:34.100 they've simply decided this isn't a story.

00:03:37.040 And if you think that what makes a story is the elements of the story,

00:03:44.100 you know, the variables in the story, is it important to you?

00:03:47.640 Is it going to matter?

00:03:48.780 Blah, blah, blah.

00:03:49.100 Well, if you think that's what makes a story, nope, it is not.

00:03:55.200 That is not what makes a story.

00:04:00.680 And all right, just looking at your comments for a moment.

00:04:06.360 There's somebody here who desperately wants to get banned.

00:04:12.100 But keep it up.

00:04:13.420 Keep it up.

00:04:13.920 You'll get banned in a minute.

00:04:14.800 All right.

00:04:16.540 Cori Bush, who is a congresswoman, tweeted yesterday quite provocatively. 0.98

00:04:25.600 She tweeted,

00:04:26.900 When they say that the 4th of July is about American freedom, remember this.

00:04:31.760 The freedom they're referring to is for white people. 0.99

00:04:35.180 This land is stolen land, and black people still aren't free. 1.00

00:04:40.640 That came from a congresswoman. 1.00

00:04:44.340 She's black. 0.97

00:04:45.340 She's a woman, and she's in Congress. 1.00

00:04:50.400 But apparently something's holding her back.

00:04:53.360 Because what?

00:04:54.700 She's not president yet? 0.99

00:04:57.200 She's not the emperor of the universe? 0.88

00:05:00.100 What exactly is holding back Congresswoman Cori Bush?

00:05:05.280 She's crushing it.

00:05:06.540 Congresswoman Bush, you're in Congress.

00:05:13.600 You did okay.

00:05:15.360 You did okay.

00:05:17.900 So the weird thing is that I, of course, agree with the statement.

00:05:22.640 How many of you who are watching this who happen to be white or at least non-black, how many of you think this is unreasonable?

00:05:33.760 Is it unreasonable that black Americans would not want to necessarily celebrate a day of freedom when they didn't have any freedom?

00:05:41.820 I feel as though it's a perfectly valid point.

00:05:51.880 However, however, it also seems that everything should have a start.

00:05:59.260 Because, correct me if I'm wrong, but the original founders didn't let people like me vote either, did they?

00:06:08.760 Did they?

00:06:09.480 Because, let's say my family were not landowners.

00:06:15.140 Actually, we weren't here during that period.

00:06:18.620 So my family wasn't here yet.

00:06:20.300 But suppose they had been and had not been landowners.

00:06:24.500 They couldn't vote, right?

00:06:26.340 And if you were a poor person working for a rich white person, did they treat you well? 0.96

00:06:32.760 Or maybe you got beaten if you were a poor white person too.

00:06:36.660 So things were definitely not great for everybody. 0.99

00:06:40.880 But I think the point is well taken that if you're black, maybe that is not your independence day.

00:06:47.380 I think that's a reasonable point. 0.65

00:06:49.500 I wouldn't disagree with that at all.

00:06:52.500 But it's too bad there's not a date that would give us more unity on stuff like this.

00:06:58.680 Speaking of race, which seems to be the only thing anybody cares about now, which is a really good sign. 1.00

00:07:04.620 If what you're complaining about is race in the United States in 2021, where race is the smallest problem that's ever been anywhere, it's still a problem.

00:07:17.240 You know, I'm not minimizing how big the problem remains.

00:07:21.180 But it is probably the lowest that specific problem has ever been anywhere at any time.

00:07:27.720 That's my guess.

00:07:28.520 That's probably an exaggeration, but, you know, things are heading in the right direction, at least.

00:07:33.340 So ESPN has this racial drama.

00:07:36.360 And what makes this story interesting is that it's a story about nobody doing anything wrong except the people who reported it.

00:07:46.020 It's a story about bad behavior except there isn't any bad behavior.

00:07:50.840 The only bad behavior is the people who reported it because it was based on a private phone call.

00:07:57.420 Whoever reports a private phone call without the permission of the people on the call, they are bad people.

00:08:05.120 Really bad people.

00:08:06.720 But let me tell you what this is about.

00:08:08.880 So I guess there are two women who work for ESPN, and they both would obviously like to succeed in their jobs. 1.00

00:08:21.140 I'm sure that's a fair statement.

00:08:23.580 And one of them is white, one of them is black.

00:08:25.520 And the black one got some kind of a job that the white one thought was guaranteed to her in her contract. 1.00

00:08:34.960 And that in a private conversation said that what's behind it might be ESPN's trying to correct for an abysmal history of diversity.

00:08:48.740 Now, this was a private conversation that somehow got published.

00:08:51.940 Which, who made a mistake here?

00:09:01.160 Was it bad behavior by the white, what are they, correspondents or what are they, hosts? 0.88

00:09:09.460 What would you call them?

00:09:12.140 Whatever they are, the people on TV, on ESPN.

00:09:14.520 Was it bad behavior that the white one would say in a private conversation that she believes that her employer was being influenced by the need to have a better diversity record?

00:09:28.820 There's nothing wrong with that.

00:09:31.060 There's nothing wrong with that at all.

00:09:33.420 This was somebody accusing their employer of good behavior.

00:09:37.500 Right?

00:09:38.020 Because isn't ESPN supposed to be trying to correct their history of bad diversity?

00:09:45.720 Now, I'm not saying that you agree with it.

00:09:48.000 Not you individually.

00:09:49.720 An analyst, thank you.

00:09:50.820 Analysts, we'll call them.

00:09:52.640 Yes, sports analysts.

00:09:54.100 Thank you.

00:09:55.400 And, but what's wrong with that?

00:09:57.840 What's wrong with a white analyst saying that her employer is concerned about diversity and acting upon it in a way that is good for diversity,

00:10:09.360 but bad for the people who don't get the jobs that maybe they would have if diversity had not been a main interest?

00:10:17.040 There's no bad behavior in this story. 1.00

00:10:20.440 Except whoever's the fucking asshole who decided to publish a private conversation. 1.00

00:10:25.820 That's the only bad behavior in the story. 1.00

00:10:29.400 And yet, we're so starved for race-related stories that we have to make this one.

00:10:36.880 Now, most of you know I have a little sensitivity to this because I lost two corporate careers for being white and male.

00:10:44.840 And I hasten to tell you that my bosses told me that directly.

00:10:48.600 We're not going to promote you because you're white and you're male, and we have a really bad track record of diversity in senior management, 1.00

00:10:57.360 so we can't make it any worse by promoting somebody like you.

00:11:01.020 Again, they told me directly.

00:11:03.640 I'm not interpreting something.

00:11:05.600 I'm not assuming anything.

00:11:07.000 They told me directly.

00:11:09.620 This is the normal.

00:11:10.600 This isn't normal.

00:11:13.180 Everything you hear about this ESPN story, where there's a white analyst who believes she lost a job because of her race,

00:11:20.900 this conversation is going on everywhere all over.

00:11:24.880 This is nothing about ESPN, really.

00:11:27.400 Just the most basic conversation happening in every big corporation right now.

00:11:31.540 So there's no bad behavior here, and nobody should be treated that way.

00:11:36.740 And I don't even think that it was an insult because some would take it as an insult to the black analyst

00:11:43.040 because the assumption is that she only got the job because of her ethnicity.

00:11:48.820 But that's not even in the story because in the very story,

00:11:53.620 the white analyst is complimenting her and saying that she's qualified.

00:11:57.600 So, you know, it's not like somebody's saying one of them is unqualified.

00:12:02.640 That's not even in the story.

00:12:04.960 All right.

00:12:06.100 We'll make anything a racial story, even if it isn't.

00:12:09.460 Did you see the clip of Biden and his declining cognitive abilities

00:12:16.180 trying to buy something at a store and also talk to people at the same time?

00:12:21.620 It didn't go well.

00:12:23.140 It didn't go well at all.

00:12:24.460 And so is it Rodney Jackson, Trump's ex-doctor at the White House,

00:12:33.400 is claiming or asserting once again that Biden needs to take a cognitive test.

00:12:38.620 Now, here's the interesting thing.

00:12:39.840 Apparently, there is a scheduled medical checkup before the end of the year.

00:12:45.420 So we know the White House is going to do that on Biden before the end of the year.

00:12:48.900 Don't you think they need to include a cognitive test?

00:12:54.880 It would be one thing if somebody showed no symptoms whatsoever of cognitive decline.

00:13:01.920 If people were asking for a cognitive test in the context of nobody noticing anything wrong,

00:13:09.020 well, could you argue, well, maybe we don't need that, right?

00:13:12.740 But that's not the context.

00:13:16.580 The context is that literally everybody can see there's something wrong with Biden.

00:13:22.260 He is clearly slowing down.

00:13:24.860 Under that context, how do you even argue that a cognitive test is necessary?

00:13:30.560 And I've got a feeling that the only thing keeping it from happening is that Kamala Harris is too weak 0.99

00:13:36.820 and they don't want her to be the president. 0.56

00:13:39.920 I feel as if they realize that she would be a nightmare as a president.

00:13:47.280 So I think the Democrats are in a bad place.

00:13:49.960 They can't test Biden's cognitive ability

00:13:54.300 because I don't think they're going to get the answer they want.

00:13:57.700 And they can't not do it.

00:14:01.200 So what are you going to do?

00:14:02.080 Just keep limping along and pretending Biden's still in charge?

00:14:06.400 I guess so.

00:14:08.720 So I'm trying to figure out what kills more people.

00:14:13.300 Fake news or vaccinations.

00:14:15.740 All right, so here's a startling statistic.

00:14:19.420 86% of Democrats, and this is from CNN, Brian Stelter's show.

00:14:26.340 So I'm sure the facts are all correct.

00:14:28.520 86% of Democrats have one shot, but only 45% of Republicans.

00:14:34.500 Did you know the difference was that big?

00:14:39.340 86% of Democrats have at least one shot and only 45% of Republicans.

00:14:44.760 Now, Brian Stelter blames Facebook and Fox for scaring people about the shots

00:14:52.040 and points out that generally conservatives tend to be more afraid of change

00:14:57.580 and more afraid of things, but that doesn't seem to be the problem here.

00:15:01.600 The problem seems to be that conservatives, or Republicans, let's say,

00:15:06.440 don't trust science.

00:15:09.240 They don't trust science, and they don't trust the news.

00:15:11.980 So when it's proposed, hey, get this shot, the conservatives say,

00:15:18.540 I don't trust you and don't get it.

00:15:20.760 Now, I was looking at some of the comments for why some Republicans are not getting it.

00:15:27.420 The most common comment from people who don't want the vaccination is

00:15:31.760 it has a 99.9% survival rate, at least for people with good health.

00:15:39.780 Now, the anti-vaxxers say, why are you making me take an experimental, they would say,

00:15:46.160 let's say a not 100% tested vaccine when I already have a 99.9% whatever survival rate.

00:15:56.200 Why would I take that chance?

00:15:57.520 What's wrong with that analysis?

00:16:00.020 Go.

00:16:01.220 Tell me what is wrong with the analysis that there's a 99.9% survival rate.

00:16:11.060 Can you tell me what's wrong with that analysis?

00:16:13.820 Well, somebody says it's selfish, but that's true.

00:16:17.620 You could define it that way.

00:16:19.080 But let's just say you're making the decision for yourself.

00:16:21.640 You're allowed to be selfish.

00:16:22.700 When it comes to your own health decisions, you could be selfish.

00:16:26.760 That's not immoral.

00:16:29.260 All right.

00:16:30.840 Yes, I'm going to say long haul.

00:16:32.960 That's right.

00:16:34.000 If you're ignoring the long haul risk, you have not made a decision based on statistics.

00:16:40.460 So don't act as though you are.

00:16:43.000 Right?

00:16:43.460 Now, if you said, well, I've considered the long haul risk, and very few people die from it,

00:16:48.820 and, you know, worst case, I feel bad for six months, I'll still take that chance.

00:16:53.020 Well, then at least you've made some kind of a reasonable decision.

00:16:57.760 You might be right, might be wrong, but it's reasonable.

00:17:01.100 But if you've ignored the long haul risk, you're not making a statistical decision.

00:17:07.720 What are you doing?

00:17:08.600 You're making some kind of emotional decision.

00:17:11.680 Here's what I would like to see.

00:17:13.720 I would like to see an online calculator that shows, you know, the various risks for various

00:17:19.960 situations so that you could put in your own long haul risk.

00:17:24.720 Can you tell, just off the top of your head, can you tell that your risk from the vaccination

00:17:30.880 would be worse than your risk from not getting vaccinated?

00:17:35.360 How would you decide that?

00:17:37.240 Let me tell you about a doctor you should not listen to.

00:17:42.660 So in Texas, there was some medical doctors were testifying before the state senate,

00:17:50.400 and they were opposed to mandatory COVID shots, but they were talking about the risks in general.

00:17:56.340 And I want to point out a type of doctor you don't want to pay attention to, okay?

00:18:01.300 So these are some things that this doctor said in testifying.

00:18:07.680 I think it was Dr. Edwards, but it doesn't matter who said it.

00:18:12.060 It's a doctor who said this.

00:18:14.400 He said,

00:18:14.900 That's a doctor you don't want to go to.

00:18:27.920 If the only thing you knew about this doctor was that one sentence,

00:18:32.400 don't go to that doctor.

00:18:35.200 Really, that's a problem.

00:18:36.400 Because this doctor has told you that he started with his belief in God

00:18:42.800 and then worked backwards to his medical opinion.

00:18:48.380 I don't see any other way to interpret this.

00:18:51.460 Started with a religious belief and then worked backwards to his medical opinion.

00:18:58.040 I think he's saying that directly.

00:18:59.860 Now, he also believes that his medical opinion is compatible with God.

00:19:06.000 But if you hear somebody start with their religion,

00:19:09.460 as that's my starting place,

00:19:10.860 and then I'm going to tell you why my religion is right,

00:19:13.000 just run away.

00:19:14.480 And I'm pro-religion, by the way.

00:19:16.380 I'm not a believer, personally.

00:19:18.060 But I'm very pro-religion.

00:19:19.700 I think it has all kinds of benefits for people that are unambiguous.

00:19:24.160 What else did Dr. Edwards say?

00:19:31.760 He said that Dr. Edwards stated that he has received,

00:19:34.620 quote, numerous reports within hours of receiving COVID vaccines

00:19:39.840 that people have suffered strokes, heart attacks,

00:19:42.620 pulmonary embolisms, blood clots, and sudden death.

00:19:46.640 If your doctor talks like that, you need a new doctor.

00:19:50.900 If you ever hear your doctor say anything like this, run away.

00:19:57.100 This is a doctor who is making a decision,

00:20:00.100 number one, based on his religion.

00:20:02.240 He said that directly.

00:20:03.680 And number two, based on anecdotal reports

00:20:06.840 in a context where incorrect anecdotal reports are guaranteed.

00:20:12.460 Meaning that so many people are getting the shot,

00:20:15.860 it's guaranteed that some people have health problems

00:20:18.360 soon after getting a shot.

00:20:19.960 Guaranteed.

00:20:22.000 It doesn't mean that they're all getting these problems

00:20:24.440 because of the shot.

00:20:25.720 It's just guaranteed statistically that, you know,

00:20:28.220 X number of people will get the shot

00:20:30.920 and then have a health problem.

00:20:32.580 So if he doesn't have a study to back up these numbers,

00:20:38.200 what the hell?

00:20:41.040 You know, at the very least,

00:20:42.560 he should be able to back up his anecdotal stuff with a study.

00:20:47.060 He also pointed out that a Harvard study

00:20:52.820 has previously estimated that only about 1%

00:20:58.440 of all adverse reactions to vaccines

00:21:00.920 are ever reported to the VAERS database.

00:21:04.320 So there's this database that people report any adverse reactions,

00:21:07.820 and only 1% of them get reported.

00:21:10.300 But don't you think they report all the bad ones?

00:21:15.360 If only 1% of the side effects are reported,

00:21:20.900 but don't you think all of the deaths are reported

00:21:23.560 or heart attacks and stuff?

00:21:25.940 So I would think it's probably pretty close

00:21:27.840 to getting all the bad stuff.

00:21:29.840 The stuff that wouldn't be reported would be a headache, right?

00:21:32.400 So I'm not sure that that matters as much as they say.

00:21:36.260 So that's a big hole in this.

00:21:38.140 We don't quite know how important that is.

00:21:41.020 And so here's another thing this doctor says.

00:21:43.940 He cited the fact that the CDC

00:21:45.560 is now reporting over 4,000 deaths

00:21:48.820 in this VAERS database,

00:21:51.400 while for the previous 20 years combined,

00:21:55.180 there were only that many deaths.

00:21:56.980 So if your doctor says this,

00:22:00.900 run away from the doctor,

00:22:03.200 not from the vaccination.

00:22:05.440 Listen to this.

00:22:06.400 This is what a doctor said in public,

00:22:09.160 that you should be essentially saying

00:22:12.320 that this should matter to you,

00:22:13.720 that the total deaths so far

00:22:15.840 from these coronavirus vaccinations

00:22:19.080 is more than 20 years

00:22:21.360 of all the deaths ever reported

00:22:23.020 from all the other vaccines put together.

00:22:24.880 If your doctor says that, 1.00

00:22:28.360 your doctor's a moron. 1.00

00:22:31.040 Why? 1.00

00:22:32.340 Go.

00:22:33.680 Yeah, let's see.

00:22:35.920 Yeah, you're seeing some people in the comments 1.00

00:22:37.700 can tell that this is a moron talking, right? 1.00

00:22:40.680 What's wrong with that statement? 1.00

00:22:43.560 He's compared the wrong things.

00:22:46.620 You don't compare this vaccination

00:22:48.720 to all the other vaccinations.

00:22:51.420 That's the wrong comparison. 1.00

00:22:54.880 This is an idiot comparison. 1.00

00:22:58.700 This is an idiot comparison. 1.00

00:23:00.480 This is someone who doesn't know 1.00

00:23:01.420 the slightest thing

00:23:02.680 about how to compare things.

00:23:04.900 Here's what he should have compared it to.

00:23:07.540 Should have compared it to

00:23:08.780 the deaths from the coronavirus.

00:23:11.360 The vaccine for the coronavirus

00:23:13.480 is an offset to

00:23:15.600 the deaths from the coronavirus.

00:23:18.260 The vaccine for the coronavirus

00:23:21.640 is not trying to compensate

00:23:23.220 for something about other vaccines.

00:23:26.740 These are just different conversations.

00:23:29.480 For this doctor to put in that comparison

00:23:31.560 to scare you, 1.00

00:23:33.080 this is a bullshit doctor. 1.00

00:23:34.920 These are terrible. 1.00

00:23:36.340 Terrible.

00:23:38.080 Terrible way to look at it.

00:23:39.560 So I would say that this doctor 0.96

00:23:41.180 is statistically incompetent.

00:23:45.100 There is, however,

00:23:48.040 a better argument

00:23:48.600 that the therapeutics

00:23:51.900 are so good now

00:23:52.820 that you basically

00:23:55.300 don't need vaccines.

00:23:57.540 So one of the therapeutics,

00:23:59.200 a buddhinoid or something, 1.00

00:24:02.380 it's an existing one for asthma.

00:24:05.140 Apparently, if you get this

00:24:06.940 within the seven days of symptoms,

00:24:08.640 it reduces your hospitalization rate

00:24:11.200 by 90%.

00:24:12.100 What?

00:24:14.520 A common over-the-counter,

00:24:16.380 not over-the-counter,

00:24:17.260 but you can get a prescription easily.

00:24:19.380 A common medicine

00:24:20.880 that's available

00:24:21.660 in every hospital easily

00:24:22.940 can reduce your risk

00:24:25.200 of hospitalization 90%.

00:24:26.880 Well,

00:24:30.160 that's pretty impressive.

00:24:33.220 So we got a bunch of therapeutics

00:24:35.500 that probably do all the work 0.57

00:24:37.000 or a lot of the work

00:24:38.260 that the vaccinations would.

00:24:39.460 And you also have to worry

00:24:41.360 about the fact

00:24:42.320 that the people pushing

00:24:43.320 the mandatory vaccinations

00:24:44.760 are older people.

00:24:47.200 Do you have any kind of

00:24:48.600 immoral or ethical problem

00:24:50.340 with the fact that

00:24:52.960 the people who are talking

00:24:54.760 about making your vaccinations

00:24:56.280 mandatory

00:24:56.880 are all the older people?

00:25:01.220 Does that bother you a little bit?

00:25:03.640 Doesn't necessarily seem like you're...

00:25:06.460 Yeah.

00:25:06.880 I'm not going to talk about ivermectin.

00:25:08.520 I know you want to talk about it.

00:25:12.300 There's just nothing else

00:25:13.200 to say about it.

00:25:14.440 Some people think it works.

00:25:15.860 Some people don't.

00:25:17.340 That's the whole story right now.

00:25:19.720 All right.

00:25:21.780 If I were 30 years younger,

00:25:24.100 would I get the vaccination?

00:25:25.820 Let me answer that question

00:25:26.920 with a question.

00:25:28.760 Where is my online calculator

00:25:31.320 to calculate my odds?

00:25:33.000 Why can't I go online

00:25:35.420 and just say,

00:25:36.420 OK, I have these situations

00:25:37.700 going on with my health.

00:25:40.020 What are my personal odds

00:25:41.680 of having a complication

00:25:43.060 from the vaccine?

00:25:45.140 And maybe there's a range there,

00:25:46.620 so we don't know the exact situation,

00:25:49.280 but a range.

00:25:50.460 And then what is my risk

00:25:52.920 of long-haul risk

00:25:54.380 that I would definitely not want?

00:25:56.460 Or death

00:25:57.820 from COVID itself.

00:26:01.640 You know,

00:26:02.180 comparing the vaccine

00:26:03.500 versus the COVID.

00:26:05.300 So I'd like an online calculator

00:26:07.260 where I could just go in there

00:26:09.040 and it would include

00:26:10.680 long-haul risk.

00:26:12.240 And I just put in my numbers

00:26:13.660 and punch out a number.

00:26:15.540 Somebody says it does exist.

00:26:20.940 Scott has cognitive dissonance.

00:26:23.220 Well, you're going to have

00:26:23.820 to do better than that.

00:26:25.840 Give me an example

00:26:26.720 and tell me what the trigger is.

00:26:31.060 Why do you need a calculator

00:26:32.360 for your life?

00:26:33.300 That's just weird, man.

00:26:36.440 This is where you can see

00:26:39.660 all the rational people

00:26:41.060 versus the artists, I guess.

00:26:44.040 The rational people

00:26:46.260 would be happy

00:26:46.980 to know their odds.

00:26:48.980 The artists are sure

00:26:50.140 that they already

00:26:51.040 can make a decision

00:26:51.920 without knowing

00:26:52.660 the odds of stuff.

00:26:55.820 All right.

00:26:59.600 Weirdly,

00:27:00.280 in the Trump legal situation

00:27:02.280 about whether the taxes

00:27:04.120 were paid on fringe benefits,

00:27:06.140 it looks like President Trump

00:27:07.560 has pretty much admitted

00:27:09.840 they did all that stuff.

00:27:11.540 At least the fringe benefit part.

00:27:13.380 So in his speech,

00:27:14.440 he's talking about

00:27:15.020 how companies don't get

00:27:16.120 dinged for this,

00:27:16.900 typically, and he's right.

00:27:18.400 But they are getting

00:27:19.460 dinged for it.

00:27:20.580 But here's the thing.

00:27:21.380 The New York State

00:27:22.860 Attorney General

00:27:23.660 who's bringing these charges,

00:27:25.960 Letitia James,

00:27:27.320 she campaigned on promises

00:27:28.820 to investigate Trump

00:27:30.180 and his business dealings.

00:27:32.440 She campaigned on taking Trump down

00:27:35.120 if she became the Attorney General

00:27:37.040 without evidence.

00:27:38.840 That's right.

00:27:40.580 The person who's in charge

00:27:41.700 of prosecuting the Trump company

00:27:43.980 promised to do it

00:27:46.420 before having evidence

00:27:48.220 of any crime.

00:27:50.060 That is almost certainly racist. 0.99

00:27:53.660 She's black. 1.00

00:27:54.540 Trump is white. 0.99

00:27:55.400 He's assumed to be racist 1.00

00:27:56.680 because he's white, 0.97

00:27:57.900 blah, blah, 0.70

00:27:58.360 and other things.

00:27:59.000 So this looks like

00:28:01.980 a racial case.

00:28:05.060 And I wonder

00:28:06.140 if the Supreme Court

00:28:07.100 would just throw it out

00:28:08.100 because she's tipped her hand

00:28:10.100 that she's basically in it

00:28:14.140 because she hates this guy.

00:28:15.240 And it looks overtly racist to me.

00:28:18.700 It looks like a hate crime.

00:28:20.060 Yeah.

00:28:20.560 It looks like the Attorney General

00:28:22.160 is perpetrating a hate crime.

00:28:23.740 That's exactly what it looks like.

00:28:26.840 So I don't think this is acceptable.

00:28:30.280 Independent of what

00:28:31.800 the Trump organization

00:28:33.040 did or did not do,

00:28:35.440 having this particular person

00:28:37.600 in charge of the prosecution,

00:28:41.580 totally unacceptable.

00:28:43.640 Totally unacceptable.

00:28:47.220 All right.

00:28:47.900 Suppose

00:28:52.560 a whole bunch of people

00:28:55.160 don't get vaccinations

00:28:56.160 and then they die

00:28:57.320 and we can calculate

00:28:58.640 how many extra people died

00:29:00.940 because they didn't get vaccinated.

00:29:02.940 First of all,

00:29:03.560 do you think we'll ever

00:29:04.240 be able to do that?

00:29:05.520 In the United States,

00:29:06.820 do you think we'll come up

00:29:07.780 with an estimate

00:29:08.460 that says

00:29:09.440 this many extra people died

00:29:11.160 because we didn't get

00:29:13.080 the vaccination?

00:29:15.400 Let me tell you again,

00:29:16.640 I'm not going to be talking

00:29:17.640 about ivermectin

00:29:18.680 just because

00:29:19.800 there's nothing to say

00:29:20.980 about it, right?

00:29:22.420 Some people think it works,

00:29:23.740 some people doesn't.

00:29:24.620 That's the end of the story.

00:29:28.280 But

00:29:28.760 wouldn't we be able

00:29:31.200 to actually calculate

00:29:32.520 how many people died

00:29:34.040 from fake news?

00:29:36.940 Now, fake news

00:29:37.820 would be anything

00:29:38.720 that misled you

00:29:39.600 on the statistics too

00:29:40.900 or scared you

00:29:42.800 when you shouldn't

00:29:43.640 have been scared.

00:29:44.320 I would call that fake news.

00:29:45.720 Will we be able

00:29:46.520 to calculate

00:29:47.180 how many people

00:29:48.680 were killed

00:29:49.060 by fake news?

00:29:49.860 And then here's

00:29:50.240 the complicated part.

00:29:52.000 Would it be

00:29:52.680 Fox News

00:29:53.680 that you would blame?

00:29:55.580 Maybe because

00:29:56.260 they're discouraging

00:29:57.100 people from getting

00:29:57.920 vaccinations

00:29:58.580 according to

00:29:59.560 Brian Stelter.

00:30:00.980 Would you say

00:30:02.000 X number of people

00:30:04.560 got killed

00:30:05.060 by Fox News

00:30:06.800 saying

00:30:07.480 there were risks

00:30:08.900 with the vaccination?

00:30:09.680 or

00:30:11.500 could you say

00:30:14.280 that the real problem

00:30:15.100 is that the fake news,

00:30:16.880 the CNNs,

00:30:18.300 and the scientific community

00:30:20.500 itself

00:30:20.960 have discredited

00:30:22.440 themselves so much

00:30:24.060 that the people

00:30:25.560 you should trust

00:30:26.380 to tell you

00:30:27.100 to get a vaccination

00:30:28.020 you can't trust.

00:30:29.960 You legitimately

00:30:30.840 can't trust them.

00:30:32.720 Whose fault

00:30:33.420 would it be

00:30:33.960 if say

00:30:35.060 100,000 people

00:30:36.060 die who didn't

00:30:36.820 need to die?

00:30:38.100 Would it be 0.95

00:30:38.740 Fox News

00:30:39.600 for scaring you

00:30:40.600 about vaccinations?

00:30:42.280 Which I think

00:30:42.900 you could fairly say

00:30:44.120 happened.

00:30:45.080 Or would it be

00:30:45.980 CNN and the

00:30:47.140 scientific community

00:30:48.280 and the Dr. Fauci's,

00:30:50.740 et cetera,

00:30:51.220 who had so destroyed

00:30:53.020 their own credibility

00:30:54.140 that you couldn't

00:30:55.420 trust them

00:30:55.880 about anything?

00:30:57.720 I feel like

00:30:58.700 it's only the above,

00:30:59.780 yeah,

00:31:00.220 as you're saying

00:31:01.160 in the comments.

00:31:02.360 So,

00:31:02.900 does fake news

00:31:03.980 kill people?

00:31:05.460 Yes. 1.00

00:31:05.920 In fact,

00:31:07.920 we've reached a point

00:31:08.840 where the biggest

00:31:09.680 threat to the country

00:31:10.740 is the fake news.

00:31:13.040 Right?

00:31:13.520 Because the fake news

00:31:14.600 is telling you

00:31:15.160 to go to war

00:31:15.780 with Iraq.

00:31:16.780 The fake news

00:31:17.460 is telling you

00:31:18.020 what to do

00:31:18.500 or not do

00:31:19.160 about climate change.

00:31:20.660 The fake news

00:31:21.540 is telling you

00:31:21.960 what to do

00:31:22.360 or not do

00:31:23.120 about nuclear energy.

00:31:25.560 The fake news

00:31:26.120 is telling you

00:31:26.540 what to do

00:31:26.960 or not do

00:31:27.660 about Iran.

00:31:28.980 Right?

00:31:29.360 It's all the fake news.

00:31:30.900 We have one problem.

00:31:33.500 Fake news.

00:31:34.180 Everything else

00:31:36.200 sort of just

00:31:38.160 falls down

00:31:38.700 from that.

00:31:39.600 The fact that

00:31:40.100 we can't trust

00:31:40.760 our institutions

00:31:41.540 or our news.

00:31:43.820 All right.

00:31:45.760 CNN reports

00:31:46.720 that 17 states

00:31:47.920 have enacted

00:31:48.540 28 new laws

00:31:52.220 that make it

00:31:52.660 harder to vote.

00:31:54.420 So,

00:31:54.960 that's CNN's

00:31:55.660 take on these

00:31:56.400 voting law changes.

00:31:58.460 Harder to vote.

00:31:59.980 That's it.

00:32:00.520 That's the whole story.

00:32:01.460 It's just making it

00:32:02.020 harder to vote

00:32:02.740 for obviously

00:32:03.700 racist political reasons.

00:32:07.000 Well,

00:32:07.600 here's another report

00:32:09.260 from CNN.

00:32:12.560 Seatbelts

00:32:13.040 make it harder

00:32:13.740 to drive.

00:32:15.920 Well,

00:32:16.140 it's true,

00:32:16.520 isn't it?

00:32:17.680 Don't seatbelts

00:32:18.460 make it harder

00:32:19.100 to drive?

00:32:20.180 Because you've got

00:32:20.900 that extra time

00:32:22.340 you have to do

00:32:22.960 to put on your seatbelt

00:32:24.060 and then your passenger

00:32:25.580 doesn't have the seatbelt on

00:32:27.080 and the little noise

00:32:28.460 comes on

00:32:29.300 and you're,

00:32:30.080 hey,

00:32:30.640 put your seatbelt on.

00:32:31.720 wouldn't you say

00:32:33.220 that CNN

00:32:34.560 should report

00:32:35.380 the seatbelts

00:32:36.500 are making it

00:32:37.020 harder to drive?

00:32:40.960 I'm sure it's true

00:32:42.280 that these laws

00:32:43.580 make it harder

00:32:44.180 to vote

00:32:44.660 but that's not

00:32:45.260 the point,

00:32:46.060 is it?

00:32:47.120 Isn't the point

00:32:48.180 to make the election

00:32:50.100 secure?

00:32:51.900 The intention

00:32:52.800 should matter.

00:32:54.120 The trouble is

00:32:54.640 that you can get both.

00:32:56.240 You can make it

00:32:57.460 more secure

00:32:58.560 and also

00:32:59.720 more likely

00:33:00.520 to suppress

00:33:01.220 a vote

00:33:01.580 at the same time.

00:33:03.660 So,

00:33:04.140 intentions are

00:33:04.920 a little mixed up here.

00:33:08.060 Yeah.

00:33:12.000 Very good analogy.

00:33:13.480 Thank you.

00:33:16.540 All right.

00:33:17.340 So,

00:33:17.680 apparently,

00:33:18.060 U.S. and Iran

00:33:18.700 are not making

00:33:19.220 any progress

00:33:19.760 toward a nuclear deal.

00:33:20.860 Are you surprised?

00:33:25.860 Oh,

00:33:26.400 somebody says

00:33:26.860 fireworks are racist 0.98

00:33:27.940 because black people 0.99

00:33:30.200 hear noise pollution. 0.99

00:33:32.700 Okay.

00:33:33.320 I don't know

00:33:33.680 about that.

00:33:34.860 So,

00:33:35.380 U.S.-Iran

00:33:35.860 making no progress

00:33:36.820 toward a nuclear deal.

00:33:37.980 Big surprise.

00:33:39.460 Are we back

00:33:40.260 to Trump's

00:33:41.860 approach

00:33:42.660 with Iran?

00:33:43.240 because

00:33:44.640 Biden

00:33:45.540 somewhat

00:33:46.500 simplistically

00:33:47.320 thought that

00:33:48.400 he would just

00:33:48.860 get back

00:33:49.280 into this

00:33:49.840 Iranian nuclear deal

00:33:50.920 but that

00:33:51.860 they would also

00:33:52.440 improve it.

00:33:54.300 So,

00:33:54.780 it's not good enough

00:33:55.600 even for the Democrats.

00:33:57.080 Even the Democrats

00:33:57.820 don't like the nuclear deal

00:33:59.140 with Iran.

00:34:00.060 I didn't know that before.

00:34:01.440 Apparently,

00:34:01.940 Chuck Schumer

00:34:02.500 was adamantly opposed

00:34:04.060 to the nuclear deal.

00:34:05.880 So,

00:34:06.520 to his credit.

00:34:08.960 And so,

00:34:09.640 when you thought

00:34:10.800 Biden was just

00:34:11.600 going to get back

00:34:12.280 into the deal,

00:34:13.240 even the Democrats

00:34:14.760 don't want to do that.

00:34:15.960 So,

00:34:16.240 there's no deal

00:34:16.740 to get back into.

00:34:18.220 So,

00:34:18.820 in effect,

00:34:20.080 the Biden approach

00:34:21.140 to Iran

00:34:21.820 is

00:34:22.720 pretty much

00:34:24.280 the Trump approach

00:34:25.480 because when it comes

00:34:26.720 right down to it,

00:34:28.220 what options

00:34:29.320 did they have?

00:34:30.220 If you're trying

00:34:30.780 to keep Iran 0.99

00:34:31.460 from getting

00:34:31.900 a nuclear weapon

00:34:32.700 and Biden says he is,

00:34:34.600 Trump said he was too,

00:34:37.300 you got to keep

00:34:38.280 the sanctions on

00:34:39.240 and you can't

00:34:39.980 make a deal.

00:34:41.000 So,

00:34:41.420 it's going to look

00:34:41.880 exactly like Trump.

00:34:43.240 You know,

00:34:43.820 give or take 0.95

00:34:44.440 killing Soleimani. 0.69

00:34:47.040 So, 0.84

00:34:47.720 once again,

00:34:48.860 the Trumpification

00:34:49.740 of politics

00:34:50.700 is happening.

00:34:54.220 How many of you

00:34:55.240 think that

00:34:55.920 we're experiencing

00:34:58.020 a heat wave

00:34:58.940 that's caused

00:35:00.320 by climate change?

00:35:01.300 I feel like our

00:35:04.260 reporting is

00:35:05.100 letting us down

00:35:05.820 a little bit.

00:35:06.800 I remember

00:35:07.240 it wasn't too long

00:35:08.140 ago when there

00:35:08.860 would be a big

00:35:09.340 hurricane season

00:35:10.160 and the experts

00:35:11.600 would come out

00:35:12.100 and say,

00:35:12.460 it's because of

00:35:13.080 climate change.

00:35:14.200 But then a bunch

00:35:14.940 of other experts

00:35:15.720 would come out

00:35:16.220 and say,

00:35:16.600 no,

00:35:17.380 it could be

00:35:18.380 because of

00:35:18.900 climate change,

00:35:19.920 but we don't see

00:35:20.880 it in the data yet.

00:35:22.880 The data does not

00:35:24.040 tell us that our

00:35:24.880 storms are getting

00:35:25.620 worse.

00:35:26.060 Is that what's

00:35:28.200 happening now?

00:35:29.480 Because I keep

00:35:30.340 seeing references

00:35:31.060 to climate change

00:35:32.360 as the reason

00:35:33.060 that it's so hot,

00:35:34.620 but is there

00:35:35.140 a counterpoint

00:35:36.320 anymore?

00:35:37.440 Is there anybody

00:35:38.140 saying,

00:35:39.240 well,

00:35:39.560 I see what you're

00:35:40.100 saying about

00:35:40.560 all this heat,

00:35:41.780 but it's not

00:35:42.420 in the data yet?

00:35:43.420 We don't see it yet?

00:35:46.280 Or have the critics

00:35:49.300 as well as the

00:35:50.940 proponents of

00:35:51.740 climate change

00:35:52.460 as being a

00:35:53.100 coming disaster,

00:35:54.340 have they all

00:35:55.660 agreed that this

00:35:56.540 is really

00:35:57.040 climate change?

00:35:58.440 There's no

00:35:58.960 pushback this

00:35:59.600 time?

00:36:01.200 Yeah,

00:36:01.540 I don't have

00:36:01.880 an opinion on

00:36:02.520 it.

00:36:02.840 I just don't

00:36:03.780 know that there's

00:36:04.520 any data out

00:36:05.220 there,

00:36:05.600 but we're all

00:36:06.220 acting like we

00:36:07.420 know what's

00:36:07.820 going on.

00:36:12.600 Yeah,

00:36:13.180 all right.

00:36:13.920 So that's just

00:36:14.340 an open question.

00:36:17.180 I would say

00:36:18.160 that I think

00:36:19.080 we should adopt

00:36:19.900 a new concept.

00:36:22.360 And the concept

00:36:22.820 goes like this.

00:36:23.520 In the old

00:36:24.360 days,

00:36:24.860 we thought of

00:36:26.040 herd immunity

00:36:26.880 as when

00:36:28.000 X number of

00:36:28.820 people have

00:36:29.400 been infected

00:36:30.220 or vaccinated.

00:36:31.840 And if you

00:36:32.400 got to that

00:36:32.840 60 or 70%

00:36:34.040 of your public

00:36:34.680 either already

00:36:36.240 infected and

00:36:37.000 having antibodies

00:36:37.760 or vaccinated,

00:36:39.360 well,

00:36:39.680 that was enough

00:36:40.160 to stop a

00:36:40.800 virus from

00:36:41.320 spreading because

00:36:42.180 there wouldn't

00:36:42.480 be enough

00:36:42.840 people that

00:36:43.380 it could jump

00:36:43.880 onto.

00:36:45.020 But I feel

00:36:46.620 like we have

00:36:47.300 to modify

00:36:48.980 that today.

00:36:50.500 And really,

00:36:51.200 we should look

00:36:51.800 at herd

00:36:52.400 immunity

00:36:53.080 differently.

00:36:55.340 And I think

00:36:55.780 herd immunity

00:36:56.320 should be

00:36:56.860 when everybody

00:36:58.840 who wants

00:37:00.460 a vaccination

00:37:00.980 has one.

00:37:02.320 That's it.

00:37:03.440 That should be

00:37:03.960 herd immunity.

00:37:05.060 If everybody

00:37:05.660 who wants

00:37:06.340 a vaccination

00:37:06.860 has one,

00:37:08.640 then the other

00:37:09.840 people are just

00:37:10.460 taking a normal

00:37:11.660 human risk

00:37:12.380 and they get

00:37:13.460 to do that.

00:37:14.020 So why

00:37:15.840 can't we just

00:37:16.440 say we're

00:37:16.820 done when

00:37:17.980 everybody who

00:37:18.560 wants one

00:37:19.120 can get one

00:37:19.680 and just go

00:37:20.740 back to work

00:37:21.340 and people

00:37:22.560 will die. 0.61

00:37:24.120 We can be 0.99

00:37:24.840 sure of that.

00:37:25.820 But they

00:37:26.260 would die in

00:37:26.920 the context

00:37:27.480 of knowing

00:37:27.960 what the

00:37:28.320 risks were

00:37:29.020 and taking

00:37:30.640 a normal

00:37:31.380 human risk

00:37:32.480 reward decision

00:37:34.180 and deciding

00:37:35.040 to go on

00:37:35.540 with their

00:37:35.820 life or not.

00:37:36.700 So it

00:37:40.080 feels like

00:37:40.900 everything we're

00:37:41.900 doing is to

00:37:43.000 maybe sort of

00:37:44.580 a little bit

00:37:45.160 protect a small

00:37:46.220 percentage of

00:37:46.840 the population

00:37:47.460 who got

00:37:50.340 vaccinated but

00:37:51.280 still could die

00:37:52.040 from the virus,

00:37:53.120 I suppose.

00:37:55.400 And the

00:37:56.120 children.

00:37:56.920 Yeah, and what

00:37:57.420 we're doing to

00:37:57.940 the children is

00:37:58.760 the most

00:38:00.600 alarming part

00:38:01.380 of it.

00:38:05.780 All right.

00:38:07.560 So the only

00:38:09.020 thing I'm adding

00:38:09.560 to this is the

00:38:10.480 thought that the

00:38:11.160 words herd

00:38:12.500 immunity, we

00:38:14.820 should just

00:38:15.220 change it for

00:38:15.740 this one

00:38:16.160 situation and

00:38:16.940 say once

00:38:17.560 everybody who

00:38:18.120 wants the

00:38:18.440 vaccination has

00:38:19.220 it, we're

00:38:20.880 good to go.

00:38:21.900 That's all you

00:38:22.440 can do.

00:38:24.460 But we are

00:38:25.240 seeing more

00:38:25.720 corporations

00:38:26.700 forcing their

00:38:27.740 employees to

00:38:28.300 get vaccinated.

00:38:30.040 I have mixed

00:38:31.040 feelings about

00:38:31.660 that.

00:38:32.780 On one

00:38:33.280 hand, you

00:38:34.960 certainly don't

00:38:35.640 want a forced

00:38:36.360 vaccinations for

00:38:38.300 all the obvious

00:38:39.020 reasons.

00:38:39.820 On the other

00:38:40.180 hand, or at

00:38:41.360 least if you

00:38:41.920 can avoid it,

00:38:42.540 you don't want

00:38:42.940 it.

00:38:44.100 On the other

00:38:44.740 hand, what are

00:38:47.940 you going to do?

00:38:48.640 Some people are

00:38:49.280 going to die if

00:38:49.860 you don't do 0.99

00:38:50.260 it.

00:38:50.440 Yes, now we're

00:38:53.800 all getting

00:38:54.380 excited about the

00:38:55.260 delta variant.

00:38:58.540 I don't know

00:38:59.260 if the

00:38:59.560 variant scares

00:39:00.520 you.

00:39:01.480 If the

00:39:01.900 normal one

00:39:04.720 didn't scare

00:39:05.280 you, I don't

00:39:05.720 know how the

00:39:06.260 delta variant is

00:39:07.560 going to scare

00:39:08.240 you extra.

00:39:09.480 I don't imagine

00:39:10.300 it.

00:39:13.320 All right.

00:39:13.980 that is all I

00:39:19.420 had to talk

00:39:19.840 about today.

00:39:21.020 I'll look into

00:39:22.320 what my issues

00:39:23.160 are with my

00:39:23.760 sound, and

00:39:24.460 then I'll get

00:39:24.900 the...

00:39:26.800 I already know

00:39:28.260 what I need to

00:39:28.800 do.

00:39:29.380 Every time I

00:39:30.040 test this, which

00:39:31.500 is I add one

00:39:32.380 variable, just

00:39:33.420 one variable to

00:39:35.200 making the sound

00:39:35.960 work, 30% failure

00:39:38.260 rate.

00:39:38.720 It's just

00:39:39.140 guaranteed.

00:39:39.480 And I will

00:39:42.360 talk to you

00:39:43.040 tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - July 05, 2021

Episode 1427 Scott Adams： I Tell you Why You Shouldn't Listen to Doctors Who Don't Understand Statistics. And More.

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