Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1433 Scott Adams： How to Make Bad Ideas Go Away, and Coffee Too

00:00:00.980 Hello, everybody. Hello to YouTube. I've already been talking to the local subscribers for a few minutes.

00:00:09.800 And I'll bet you're wondering, I know what you're wondering, you're thinking,

00:00:14.000 will today be the best coffee with Scott Adams of all time?

00:00:18.880 Yeah, yeah, it will. I say it every time, and it's true every single time.

00:00:23.480 And all you need is a cup or mug or glass, a tank or chalice, a dine, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:31.140 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:35.600 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:41.960 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, famous all over the world, and it's going to happen now. Go.

00:00:53.480 Oh, I'm seeing somebody say that CNN did report that on the Charlottesville situation, Trump said both sides were good.

00:01:05.300 Now, saying that there were fine people on both sides is a little bit different than saying he was praising the neo-Nazis.

00:01:14.400 So they may have stepped away from it a little bit, because one would be unambiguous fake news, but the other is true-ish.

00:01:24.200 He did actually say the words that there were good people on both sides.

00:01:27.240 As long as they don't explain what he meant by both sides, well, they can be weaselishly true, but also fake news at the same time,

00:01:36.560 which is, as you know, their sweet spot.

00:01:39.440 Well, here's an interesting factoid.

00:01:47.460 You know, every time we think we know something about statistical truth, especially during the pandemic,

00:01:54.620 what happens when reality gives us a fact check?

00:01:59.500 Every time we think we understand what the statistics are telling us, reality is not serving it up.

00:02:05.920 Here's an example, and I don't know what's wrong. 0.98

00:02:09.380 Is it the way we measure stuff, or are we just dumb? 0.88

00:02:12.400 But Anatoly Lubarsky had a good tweet. 0.64

00:02:17.440 He noted that the UK cases of coronavirus are rising, and they're rising faster this summer than they did even last summer.

00:02:27.640 Now, that's in a condition in which fully 50% of the UK is fully vaccinated.

00:02:37.400 Now, does this make sense to you?

00:02:40.400 Could it be true that the spread is worse this year, this summer, than it was last summer during the height of the pandemic?

00:02:51.200 And, Kevin, you're going to go away.

00:02:59.540 Put users in timeout.

00:03:04.500 All right.

00:03:06.140 So all the trolls with their bad audio stuff, they're going to go away.

00:03:10.980 So do you think it makes sense that you could have higher infection rates this year when half of the country is vaccinated?

00:03:17.680 Can that happen?

00:03:18.640 How is it possible that you've reduced the number of people who could get it by something like 50% and the rates are rising faster?

00:03:31.020 Well, first of all, yes.

00:03:32.980 I think it is possible.

00:03:35.160 So the first thing is, yeah.

00:03:36.960 But our common sense, it doesn't, your common sense has trouble processing that, right?

00:03:42.500 So this is just one of those cases where the data and what your brain thinks is likely just don't match.

00:03:51.080 But I don't know.

00:03:52.660 I don't know that there's really any problem here.

00:03:55.000 It could be the way it's measured.

00:03:57.720 It could be that it's moving fast with young people, but it doesn't matter because they're not dying.

00:04:03.180 So these things are too complicated to know if your common sense is really telling you anything useful.

00:04:10.300 Here is a fun, fun thing.

00:04:13.020 So you know CPAC is happening, right?

00:04:15.200 So CPAC, all the Republicans are getting together, going to do their speeches.

00:04:19.760 President Trump is going to do the closing speech, I guess.

00:04:22.460 And Don Jr. has already promised us it will be provocative.

00:04:26.720 People will be upset about it.

00:04:30.760 Now, we don't even know what it's going to be about yet.

00:04:32.920 Well, we kind of do, don't we?

00:04:34.560 I mean, you could pretty much guess what kind of themes he's going to hit.

00:04:39.400 But he's going to be shaking things up.

00:04:42.040 And finally, we'll get some fun news.

00:04:44.860 I'm so tired of the boring news.

00:04:46.980 We need Trump to give us some fun news.

00:04:49.460 But here's the most fun part of the CPAC.

00:04:52.180 There's a group not associated with CPAC, but they're attending, I guess.

00:04:57.420 Patriots Soar, S-O-A-R. 0.99

00:05:00.140 And they're handing out a seven-point plan.

00:05:02.680 I guess they've got some little handout.

00:05:05.320 Seven-point plan for reinstating Trump to the presidency.

00:05:09.480 Not getting him re-elected, but reinstating him into the presidency.

00:05:15.020 And here's how the plan goes.

00:05:16.600 I think this assumes that in 2022, the Republicans have a good midterm election.

00:05:26.240 Once the Republicans take control of Congress,

00:05:30.880 apparently it's legal to pick a Speaker of the House

00:05:34.660 who is not even an elected official.

00:05:38.340 So apparently, the Republicans could pick Trump as the Speaker of the House

00:05:43.760 without him being in office.

00:05:46.600 I need a fact check on that, but I think that's true, right?

00:05:49.940 Now, if that's true,

00:05:52.520 then Trump, assuming you had a Republican majority only,

00:05:57.260 could start organizing impeachments.

00:06:02.660 And he could impeach Biden,

00:06:05.600 and then he could impeach Harris.

00:06:07.840 And the only thing he would need would be a Republican majority.

00:06:11.460 Because it wouldn't matter what the case was, right?

00:06:14.220 Impeachment is a political process.

00:06:18.640 If you have good evidence for it,

00:06:20.660 well, maybe there's more chance somebody will get impeached.

00:06:23.940 But you don't really need any.

00:06:26.040 You actually don't need evidence.

00:06:29.080 Tell me if I'm wrong.

00:06:30.820 Give me a fact check on that.

00:06:32.680 If the Republicans just had enough of a majority,

00:06:36.320 and they simply wanted to impeach somebody,

00:06:39.820 they could just do it, right?

00:06:41.200 I mean, they would have to make up some, you know, BS reason.

00:06:44.660 But that would be easy.

00:06:45.920 In a political process, you just say,

00:06:48.220 oh, it's obvious that Biden has dementia.

00:06:51.060 Right?

00:06:51.500 How hard would it be for Republicans to say,

00:06:56.840 look, the Biden administration is not dealing with the fact

00:07:00.360 that their leader has dementia.

00:07:02.240 The vice president should be stepping in,

00:07:04.600 and she's not, Harris.

00:07:06.580 So you have to impeach them both.

00:07:09.820 What's wrong with that argument?

00:07:12.340 No, seriously, what's wrong with that argument?

00:07:15.900 Right?

00:07:16.540 Now, I don't know.

00:07:17.320 So impeachment isn't just for incompetence, right?

00:07:22.040 You need a little bit more than that.

00:07:24.300 But I feel like you could just stretch any argument

00:07:27.120 in as far as you want, as long as you have the majority.

00:07:29.500 You just have to get the votes.

00:07:31.140 And nobody's really responsible for what they vote for.

00:07:34.580 So all you have to do is convince the Republicans that,

00:07:38.500 and I'll just use that argument again,

00:07:40.400 that it's obvious Biden has dementia.

00:07:44.240 You could make that case with a straight face.

00:07:47.360 Right?

00:07:47.960 You wouldn't be lying, would you?

00:07:49.900 I mean, you would be going farther than your medical expertise should take you,

00:07:55.180 because you don't have any.

00:07:56.860 But it would also be considered reasonable by people who heard it,

00:08:00.900 even if they didn't like it.

00:08:02.280 Even the Democrats would say,

00:08:03.680 oh, I hate it that you're trying to use impeachment,

00:08:07.840 but it's not the worst point that there's something wrong with them.

00:08:12.900 And if Harris is not stepping in to do something about it,

00:08:16.780 she's not doing her job.

00:08:18.960 And if she's not doing her job, she needs to be removed. 1.00

00:08:23.000 So that could be the argument.

00:08:24.620 Now, will any of this happen?

00:08:25.900 Very, very unlikely.

00:08:28.520 Really, really unlikely.

00:08:30.280 But it's kind of fun.

00:08:31.680 It's fun to know that it might.

00:08:35.100 Here's a question for you, and it's just a hypothetical.

00:08:38.780 We know that there are COVID variants,

00:08:41.980 and the variation could, for example, be more or less deadly,

00:08:45.900 but it could also be more or less transmissible.

00:08:50.380 So it could be different in a variety of different ways,

00:08:53.620 thus the variant part.

00:08:56.060 And I wonder this.

00:08:57.920 Could you, hypothetically,

00:08:59.620 I'm not suggesting this is a good idea,

00:09:02.280 but it's more of a science nerd question.

00:09:05.620 Could you, hypothetically,

00:09:07.740 it would be terribly immoral and unethical, so don't do it,

00:09:11.460 but would it be possible

00:09:12.560 to develop a variant of the coronavirus

00:09:16.260 that spread as fast as the Delta variant, or faster,

00:09:20.880 and gave you very little symptoms,

00:09:23.840 but it did give you immunity

00:09:25.540 against other variants?

00:09:29.320 What do you think?

00:09:30.660 Could you, in effect, vaccinate the world

00:09:33.720 by creating a weak variety of the virus

00:09:37.880 and just let it go?

00:09:39.840 Now, obviously, this would be the most unethical thing

00:09:42.540 in the world, right?

00:09:43.680 It would be deeply immoral,

00:09:45.820 so we're not going to argue that, right?

00:09:48.420 We're all on the same side.

00:09:50.300 You don't give people forced vaccinations

00:09:52.980 by tricking them with a virus in the air.

00:09:56.600 But it'd be possible, wouldn't it?

00:10:00.280 And if it were possible,

00:10:02.300 would it be something that you would ever use

00:10:05.060 in an even worse pandemic?

00:10:07.980 You know, this pandemic was pretty bad,

00:10:09.700 but it could be much worse, one assumes.

00:10:14.120 So I'm seeing a lot of yeses.

00:10:15.800 Interesting.

00:10:17.360 Yeah, it would be, obviously,

00:10:18.920 the worst idea in the world to try to do it,

00:10:21.900 but it might work.

00:10:24.780 Weirdly.

00:10:25.140 Oh, there's a Dan Brown novel with that topic?

00:10:29.120 That makes sense.

00:10:30.420 Sounds like a movie plot.

00:10:31.700 Yeah.

00:10:31.840 All right.

00:10:34.080 There was a study on mask effectiveness in Kansas

00:10:37.920 in which different counties were looked at

00:10:41.840 to see if wearing masks worked.

00:10:44.700 What do you think was the result?

00:10:46.540 Remember, Kansas is pretty Republican,

00:10:49.660 and they had some counties with no mask mandates

00:10:53.880 and some with, some without.

00:10:56.800 What do you think?

00:10:57.700 Did masks work?

00:10:58.960 Well, according to this study,

00:11:01.640 they worked really well.

00:11:04.540 Do you believe it?

00:11:07.180 Do you believe that anybody

00:11:08.600 can actually effectively measure

00:11:11.640 whether or not masks worked?

00:11:15.000 So I have a really, really big question

00:11:18.120 about whether anybody can even measure this thing,

00:11:21.620 because I feel like too many things happen

00:11:23.160 at the same time.

00:11:24.600 By the time you mandate masks,

00:11:27.180 don't you also do lockdowns

00:11:29.760 and more distancing

00:11:30.600 and treat it more seriously?

00:11:33.220 So I don't think there's ever a case

00:11:34.780 where the only difference

00:11:35.980 between two locations

00:11:37.360 is masks or no masks.

00:11:39.880 So the first part is

00:11:41.380 that it might be hard to tease out

00:11:43.240 what really is the mask part.

00:11:45.860 Secondly, you can't do

00:11:47.400 a randomized controlled test,

00:11:49.740 because since the assumption is masks work,

00:11:53.920 at least by the scientific community,

00:11:55.760 if not by you,

00:11:57.640 there wouldn't be any way to say,

00:11:59.540 well, this group don't wear masks

00:12:01.460 during the pandemic

00:12:02.320 and this group wear them

00:12:03.680 and we'll see who does better.

00:12:05.300 So you can't do the kind of study

00:12:06.720 you want to do.

00:12:07.580 It would be unethical.

00:12:09.480 So you're left with

00:12:11.180 less reliable ways to check it.

00:12:13.780 And do you believe that

00:12:16.580 when these researchers

00:12:18.840 at the Institute of Policy

00:12:20.380 and Social Research,

00:12:22.260 they said that it saved

00:12:23.560 about 500 lives

00:12:25.180 in each adoptive county.

00:12:28.340 Do you believe that?

00:12:29.940 Do you believe that masks

00:12:31.140 saved 500 lives

00:12:33.100 in each county that did them?

00:12:36.720 I think I'd have to see

00:12:38.060 a lot more studies.

00:12:39.300 I'd have to see a lot more people

00:12:40.640 look at it.

00:12:41.140 We don't really live in a world

00:12:42.760 in which you could take

00:12:44.120 any of this seriously.

00:12:46.220 I'm saying that

00:12:47.220 people are not believing it.

00:12:50.200 I'm still on the side

00:12:51.460 that says

00:12:51.960 if you could measure it,

00:12:54.020 you'd find that masks

00:12:55.160 made a difference.

00:12:57.760 But I don't know

00:12:58.620 if you'll ever be able

00:12:59.640 to measure it.

00:13:00.280 I just don't know

00:13:00.880 if I would ever trust

00:13:02.220 any study on that.

00:13:04.280 All right.

00:13:04.620 Let me give you an update

00:13:10.080 on something from yesterday.

00:13:12.060 You might remember

00:13:13.100 that yesterday

00:13:14.260 I told you a funny story

00:13:15.800 about how Christina,

00:13:17.900 my wife and I,

00:13:18.520 took personality tests,

00:13:20.920 an online personality test.

00:13:22.600 So there's no science behind it.

00:13:23.980 It was sort of a variant

00:13:25.740 of the Myers-Briggs test

00:13:28.140 where you're an INTJ

00:13:30.240 or an ENTF

00:13:31.500 or whatever you are.

00:13:32.380 And I was joking

00:13:34.500 because my result came out

00:13:36.160 that I was compared

00:13:37.620 to people like

00:13:38.560 Martin Luther King,

00:13:40.880 Mother Teresa,

00:13:42.340 and Nelson Mandela.

00:13:43.960 And I joked that

00:13:45.080 my wife did the same test 1.00

00:13:47.000 and came out

00:13:47.720 similar to Vladimir Putin.

00:13:50.580 Now,

00:13:51.660 I may have cherry-picked

00:13:53.560 some data.

00:13:55.320 So let me do

00:13:56.460 a clarification.

00:13:58.060 In addition to

00:13:59.180 having a

00:14:01.260 a test

00:14:02.700 that was similar

00:14:03.260 to Vladimir Putin,

00:14:04.980 well,

00:14:05.160 number one,

00:14:06.100 do you think

00:14:06.660 Vladimir Putin

00:14:07.380 took the test?

00:14:08.760 Of course not.

00:14:10.320 Do you think MLK

00:14:11.360 or Mother Teresa

00:14:13.220 took the test?

00:14:14.320 Of course not.

00:14:15.720 So when the test

00:14:16.480 says that you have

00:14:17.100 the same personality

00:14:17.940 as these famous people,

00:14:19.860 there's no science

00:14:20.680 to that.

00:14:21.300 It doesn't mean anything.

00:14:22.820 But other people

00:14:23.780 who would have

00:14:24.280 the allegedly

00:14:25.080 the same personality type

00:14:26.480 as Christina

00:14:28.140 would be Isaac Newton,

00:14:30.400 much better

00:14:31.240 than Vladimir Putin,

00:14:33.100 Elon Musk,

00:14:35.380 Stephen Hawking,

00:14:36.580 Beethoven,

00:14:37.940 John Nash,

00:14:38.740 the mathematician,

00:14:40.780 and JFK.

00:14:42.200 Now,

00:14:42.860 if you wanted

00:14:43.400 to know

00:14:43.780 how unscientific

00:14:44.880 this personality test is,

00:14:47.340 do you think

00:14:48.060 that JFK

00:14:48.980 and Vladimir Putin

00:14:51.980 should be

00:14:52.440 in the same category?

00:14:53.340 right there,

00:14:56.540 isn't that kind

00:14:57.620 of a tip-off?

00:15:00.320 So I wouldn't

00:15:01.360 put any stock

00:15:03.180 in this.

00:15:03.640 So by the way,

00:15:04.280 the Myers-Briggs

00:15:05.480 personality test

00:15:06.600 purports

00:15:08.020 to figure out

00:15:08.960 what kind of

00:15:09.620 personality people have

00:15:10.900 and then

00:15:12.320 the reason is,

00:15:15.380 the reason

00:15:16.000 that you figure

00:15:16.460 that out

00:15:16.920 is so that you can

00:15:17.580 deal with them

00:15:18.080 more effectively,

00:15:18.980 right?

00:15:20.200 So

00:15:20.720 can you

00:15:22.540 actually do that?

00:15:24.300 If you knew

00:15:24.940 what your personality

00:15:25.760 type was

00:15:26.620 and you knew

00:15:27.820 what somebody else's

00:15:28.700 personality type was,

00:15:30.400 could you use that

00:15:31.400 to great advantage

00:15:32.400 in your business

00:15:33.880 or personal life?

00:15:35.860 And the answer is

00:15:37.040 probably not.

00:15:38.560 There's no reason

00:15:39.280 to believe that

00:15:39.880 makes any difference.

00:15:41.580 And

00:15:42.040 I'm not sure

00:15:43.660 that there's

00:15:44.940 any science

00:15:45.540 to even figuring out

00:15:46.660 what your personality is.

00:15:48.780 Because

00:15:48.980 when I took the test

00:15:50.820 I was aware of

00:15:51.800 answering the questions

00:15:52.780 the way I wanted

00:15:54.640 to answer them.

00:15:55.940 Or let me say it

00:15:56.720 another way.

00:15:57.560 When I answered

00:15:58.300 the questions

00:15:58.840 on the personality test

00:16:00.160 I was kind of

00:16:02.200 saying who I wanted

00:16:03.360 to be

00:16:03.940 maybe more

00:16:05.320 than who I am.

00:16:06.560 You know what I mean?

00:16:07.740 Like maybe I gave

00:16:08.540 myself a little bit

00:16:09.380 more of a

00:16:10.180 a little bit more

00:16:12.240 of a

00:16:12.660 positive review

00:16:14.360 of my own

00:16:15.660 personality

00:16:16.520 than perhaps

00:16:17.640 was warranted.

00:16:18.980 You know

00:16:19.460 would that

00:16:20.480 be unusual?

00:16:21.780 So I've got

00:16:22.520 a feeling that

00:16:23.280 people's own

00:16:24.380 assessment

00:16:24.820 of their

00:16:25.360 personality

00:16:25.960 is pretty wonky

00:16:27.480 to begin with.

00:16:28.660 And that once

00:16:29.140 you've assessed it

00:16:29.840 it doesn't mean

00:16:30.440 you can work

00:16:30.980 with somebody else

00:16:31.800 if you know

00:16:32.880 their personality.

00:16:33.940 So in the Dilbert comic

00:16:34.860 I have mocked

00:16:35.640 the Myers-Briggs test

00:16:37.260 a number of times

00:16:38.080 and I will

00:16:39.860 continue to do so.

00:16:41.120 There's no science

00:16:41.740 to it.

00:16:42.520 Alright.

00:16:43.180 And I was just

00:16:43.960 having fun with

00:16:44.780 the personality test.

00:16:45.900 Next topic.

00:16:54.260 What would it

00:16:54.760 take to convince

00:16:55.660 you that the

00:16:57.040 earth is warming

00:16:57.960 because of

00:16:58.940 human activity?

00:17:00.860 What would it

00:17:01.360 take to convince

00:17:01.960 you?

00:17:03.080 So let's say

00:17:04.000 I know my

00:17:05.340 audience well

00:17:05.980 and I know

00:17:07.040 that it is

00:17:08.020 a common

00:17:08.820 belief among

00:17:09.600 many of my

00:17:10.240 audience members

00:17:10.860 here that

00:17:11.840 climate change

00:17:12.560 is not happening

00:17:13.500 or that if it

00:17:14.700 is happening

00:17:15.180 it's some

00:17:15.880 natural variation

00:17:17.060 and has not

00:17:18.720 much to do

00:17:19.240 with humans.

00:17:21.420 So I know

00:17:22.120 a number of you

00:17:22.660 are in that camp.

00:17:23.680 I'm not in that

00:17:24.580 camp.

00:17:25.420 I'm in the camp

00:17:26.180 that almost

00:17:27.580 certainly humans

00:17:28.380 are making some

00:17:29.020 difference but

00:17:30.240 we're not good

00:17:30.800 at predicting it

00:17:31.600 and we're also

00:17:32.720 very good at

00:17:33.840 remediating.

00:17:35.540 So I'm not

00:17:36.160 as worried about

00:17:37.180 long-term

00:17:38.520 devastating

00:17:39.180 consequences

00:17:40.060 because other

00:17:41.440 people are.

00:17:41.900 as long as

00:17:43.080 other humans

00:17:43.600 are really

00:17:44.060 worried about

00:17:44.640 it and

00:17:45.020 working on

00:17:45.620 and putting

00:17:46.060 tons of

00:17:46.480 money into

00:17:46.860 it we'll

00:17:47.560 be fine.

00:17:48.740 But you

00:17:49.480 know it's

00:17:49.700 probably

00:17:49.920 productive to

00:17:50.700 worry about

00:17:51.120 it is my

00:17:51.620 view.

00:17:52.140 Now I could

00:17:52.480 be wrong

00:17:52.800 about that.

00:17:53.880 So if you

00:17:54.180 ask me Scott

00:17:55.340 what is your

00:17:55.820 level of

00:17:56.300 certainty I

00:17:57.400 would say

00:17:57.680 not 100%

00:17:58.500 but pretty

00:17:59.700 high.

00:18:00.720 Pretty high.

00:18:02.280 So but

00:18:03.320 here's the

00:18:03.660 question to

00:18:04.100 you if you're

00:18:04.600 in the camp

00:18:05.100 that says

00:18:05.700 now the

00:18:06.280 world is not

00:18:07.000 warming

00:18:07.340 because of

00:18:08.960 human activity

00:18:09.660 maybe because

00:18:11.000 of natural

00:18:11.400 variants or

00:18:12.280 solar flares or

00:18:13.880 whatever you

00:18:14.220 think it is

00:18:14.660 what would it

00:18:15.680 take to

00:18:16.020 convince you

00:18:16.480 otherwise?

00:18:17.780 Is there

00:18:18.120 anything?

00:18:19.300 Because if

00:18:20.340 you don't

00:18:20.760 believe in

00:18:21.240 climate change

00:18:22.080 being human

00:18:23.580 caused to

00:18:24.260 some extent

00:18:24.840 you don't

00:18:26.160 believe science

00:18:26.940 or at least

00:18:28.560 you don't

00:18:28.840 believe scientists

00:18:29.740 I should say.

00:18:30.740 It's not that

00:18:31.120 you don't

00:18:31.340 believe science

00:18:32.000 that you don't

00:18:32.980 believe the

00:18:33.360 consensus of

00:18:34.120 scientists.

00:18:35.180 So what would

00:18:35.980 it ever take

00:18:36.500 to change

00:18:36.920 your mind?

00:18:38.360 Now I'm not

00:18:39.020 saying I'm

00:18:39.440 going to try

00:18:39.960 to change

00:18:40.380 your mind.

00:18:42.340 I'm seeing

00:18:43.040 Roger saying

00:18:43.600 the Tony

00:18:44.120 Heller video

00:18:44.780 should be

00:18:45.240 required viewing.

00:18:47.200 Let me tell

00:18:47.720 you if you

00:18:48.320 think that

00:18:49.060 you're really

00:18:50.400 in bad

00:18:50.820 shape.

00:18:52.140 Right?

00:18:53.020 Every time I

00:18:53.920 bring this up

00:18:54.480 somebody brings

00:18:55.020 up Tony

00:18:55.520 Heller.

00:18:56.400 Tony Heller

00:18:57.060 may have

00:18:57.600 destroyed the

00:18:59.880 earth.

00:19:01.860 I'm not

00:19:02.540 saying for

00:19:03.020 sure.

00:19:04.380 But the

00:19:05.240 Tony Heller

00:19:05.920 effect, he's

00:19:06.540 a well-known

00:19:07.380 critic of

00:19:08.180 climate change.

00:19:08.820 But he's

00:19:09.920 so well-known

00:19:10.700 and did

00:19:11.640 such good

00:19:12.420 work

00:19:12.760 communicating

00:19:13.480 that he's

00:19:15.180 the main

00:19:15.660 reason that

00:19:16.220 people don't

00:19:16.680 believe in

00:19:17.060 climate change

00:19:17.660 on the right.

00:19:18.720 One person.

00:19:19.920 Because if you

00:19:20.780 look at the

00:19:21.140 comments, you'll

00:19:21.660 see he's the

00:19:22.140 most often,

00:19:22.720 well, really the

00:19:23.440 only person who's

00:19:24.120 ever mentioned.

00:19:25.260 Now, here's the

00:19:26.540 problem.

00:19:28.100 If you watch

00:19:29.120 10 or 20

00:19:31.320 Tony Heller

00:19:31.940 videos, you

00:19:33.360 will be

00:19:33.740 convinced that

00:19:34.400 he's right.

00:19:35.540 How many

00:19:35.960 of you have

00:19:36.320 had that

00:19:36.640 experience?

00:19:37.880 How many

00:19:38.240 of you watched

00:19:39.040 enough Tony

00:19:42.680 Heller videos

00:19:43.820 to say, my

00:19:45.620 God, this is

00:19:46.300 convincing, he's

00:19:47.100 right?

00:19:47.840 In the comments,

00:19:48.820 how many of you

00:19:49.360 have done that?

00:19:51.900 Because I've

00:19:52.840 gone down that

00:19:53.700 rabbit hole, and

00:19:55.780 if you watch

00:19:56.680 enough of his

00:19:57.260 videos, they're

00:19:57.940 really, really

00:19:58.800 persuasive.

00:20:00.100 Like, really

00:20:01.040 persuasive.

00:20:03.120 How many of

00:20:03.920 you?

00:20:04.940 Just looking

00:20:05.600 in your

00:20:06.040 comments, never

00:20:09.680 heard of the

00:20:10.100 guy who, all

00:20:11.600 right.

00:20:12.220 So, here's

00:20:14.320 what you need

00:20:15.080 to know.

00:20:15.740 If you watch

00:20:16.400 only Tony Heller

00:20:17.460 videos, they're

00:20:18.340 really convincing,

00:20:19.880 so don't do

00:20:20.700 that.

00:20:21.280 Because if you

00:20:22.100 watch only one

00:20:22.840 person's view of

00:20:23.700 anything, they're

00:20:25.080 going to be

00:20:25.520 convincing.

00:20:26.880 So, the

00:20:27.780 problem is not

00:20:28.520 that Tony Heller

00:20:29.600 is right or

00:20:30.320 wrong, the

00:20:31.180 problem is you

00:20:31.780 took a method

00:20:32.580 of finding

00:20:33.180 information that

00:20:33.980 can never

00:20:34.380 work.

00:20:35.880 You hear this

00:20:36.440 clearly.

00:20:37.500 If you

00:20:38.160 follow down the

00:20:38.980 Tony Heller

00:20:39.560 path, you

00:20:43.440 took a way of

00:20:44.240 finding information

00:20:45.140 that can never

00:20:46.360 work.

00:20:47.280 And it has

00:20:47.720 nothing to do

00:20:48.280 with Tony Heller.

00:20:49.840 It has to do

00:20:50.520 with watching any

00:20:52.180 one person's

00:20:53.080 content is the

00:20:54.520 worst way you

00:20:55.140 can understand

00:20:55.700 anything.

00:20:56.600 Because they

00:20:57.140 will be

00:20:57.640 persuasive,

00:20:58.600 because you're

00:20:59.000 not hearing any

00:20:59.600 counter-argument.

00:21:00.240 You have to

00:21:01.700 read the

00:21:02.040 debunks, and

00:21:03.320 then read his

00:21:03.900 stuff, and

00:21:04.980 then read the

00:21:05.620 counter to it,

00:21:06.860 and then read

00:21:07.680 his response to

00:21:08.600 the counter to

00:21:09.280 it, etc.

00:21:10.240 You've got to

00:21:11.020 go pretty deep

00:21:11.960 down the hole

00:21:12.620 before you

00:21:13.720 realize that

00:21:14.300 everything that

00:21:14.920 Tony Heller

00:21:15.400 says has a

00:21:16.820 reasonable

00:21:17.260 defense.

00:21:19.220 Maybe not

00:21:20.020 everything.

00:21:20.840 Because sometimes

00:21:21.480 the critics will

00:21:22.280 find things that

00:21:23.100 are being done

00:21:23.780 wrong, but it

00:21:25.380 doesn't debunk

00:21:26.320 the whole thing.

00:21:27.600 It might be

00:21:28.140 there's a

00:21:28.520 messy spot or

00:21:29.300 something.

00:21:31.740 Yes, Al Gore

00:21:32.700 is the same

00:21:33.180 problem.

00:21:34.100 If you just

00:21:34.820 listened to Al

00:21:35.620 Gore, and he

00:21:37.040 was your primary

00:21:37.760 source of

00:21:38.440 information, you

00:21:39.880 would be using a

00:21:40.680 process which

00:21:41.520 guarantees you

00:21:42.460 would be not

00:21:43.540 well-informed.

00:21:45.040 So the same

00:21:45.780 thing I said

00:21:46.240 about Tony

00:21:46.800 Heller, who

00:21:47.900 says climate

00:21:48.480 change is not

00:21:49.240 real, is

00:21:49.820 exactly the

00:21:50.660 same as I

00:21:51.780 would say about

00:21:52.340 Al Gore.

00:21:53.140 And by the

00:21:53.460 way, Al Gore

00:21:55.180 would tell you

00:21:55.620 the same thing.

00:21:57.600 If you had a

00:21:58.340 private conversation

00:21:59.200 with Al Gore, I

00:22:01.400 feel confident

00:22:02.060 this is true.

00:22:03.620 By the way, I

00:22:04.220 have had private

00:22:05.100 conversations with

00:22:05.940 Al Gore.

00:22:06.500 That's another

00:22:06.900 story.

00:22:07.920 But in the

00:22:09.520 White House, when

00:22:10.100 he was vice

00:22:10.520 president, I got

00:22:11.380 to hang out with

00:22:11.980 him a little bit.

00:22:13.500 I like Al Gore,

00:22:14.540 by the way.

00:22:15.120 I think he's the

00:22:15.960 real deal.

00:22:17.000 Now, whether he's

00:22:18.180 right or wrong on

00:22:18.800 any particular

00:22:19.320 things is a

00:22:20.140 different question.

00:22:21.140 But I think he's

00:22:21.720 actually, I like

00:22:23.540 him anyway, so I'll

00:22:24.360 just put that out

00:22:25.080 there.

00:22:25.240 But I think

00:22:27.420 he would agree

00:22:28.020 with this

00:22:28.440 statement, because

00:22:29.580 he's a rational

00:22:30.640 guy.

00:22:31.420 If you said the

00:22:32.380 only information

00:22:33.100 you have is from

00:22:33.900 Al Gore, should

00:22:35.540 you treat it as

00:22:36.440 credible?

00:22:38.300 Not even Al Gore

00:22:39.240 would tell you

00:22:39.680 that, I don't

00:22:40.440 think, because he

00:22:41.680 seems like a

00:22:42.280 pretty straight

00:22:42.840 shooter.

00:22:43.260 He may be

00:22:43.640 right or wrong

00:22:44.320 on stuff, but I

00:22:45.740 think he's a

00:22:46.200 straight shooter.

00:22:47.480 And I think he

00:22:48.320 would tell you

00:22:48.900 that listening to

00:22:50.460 any one person

00:22:51.380 on any big

00:22:53.020 complicated topic is

00:22:54.240 a terrible idea.

00:22:56.000 So, it's one

00:22:57.600 thing to listen

00:22:58.180 to Al Gore, but

00:22:59.240 you've got to

00:22:59.580 listen to Tony

00:23:00.500 Heller maybe

00:23:01.180 also, and then

00:23:02.600 you've got to

00:23:02.940 listen to the

00:23:03.500 debunk of the

00:23:04.380 Tony Heller.

00:23:05.940 Potholer is

00:23:06.580 one, famous

00:23:07.240 one, and then

00:23:08.280 you've got to

00:23:08.600 listen to the

00:23:09.100 response to

00:23:09.720 Potholer, which

00:23:11.080 could be pretty

00:23:11.700 persuasive.

00:23:13.160 But you've got to

00:23:13.720 go all the way

00:23:14.280 down or else you

00:23:15.060 don't know

00:23:15.380 anything.

00:23:16.680 So, what

00:23:17.500 would it take

00:23:17.940 to convince you

00:23:18.800 that climate

00:23:19.480 change is real?

00:23:23.420 Think about

00:23:24.040 your own answer.

00:23:24.720 You don't have

00:23:25.160 to answer

00:23:25.500 me.

00:23:26.080 But think

00:23:26.540 about if

00:23:27.280 there's nothing

00:23:27.820 that would

00:23:28.200 convince you,

00:23:30.660 why do you

00:23:31.540 believe it?

00:23:32.580 Right?

00:23:33.280 You have to

00:23:34.380 check your

00:23:35.020 thinking if

00:23:35.660 there's nothing

00:23:36.140 that could 0.68

00:23:36.480 change your

00:23:36.900 mind.

00:23:37.620 No new

00:23:38.440 information,

00:23:39.620 no better

00:23:40.240 source,

00:23:41.340 no record

00:23:42.300 temperatures,

00:23:44.100 anything.

00:23:44.880 What would

00:23:45.280 change your

00:23:45.620 mind?

00:23:45.800 I'm not

00:23:48.240 saying I'm

00:23:48.700 going to

00:23:48.920 try to

00:23:49.240 change your

00:23:49.600 mind.

00:23:49.960 I'm just

00:23:50.240 wondering what

00:23:50.780 would.

00:23:51.880 All right,

00:23:52.200 apparently more

00:23:53.640 than 30

00:23:54.200 million Americans

00:23:54.940 were under

00:23:55.540 excessive heat

00:23:56.540 warnings across

00:23:58.240 the West.

00:23:59.220 Does that

00:23:59.740 change your

00:24:00.180 mind?

00:24:01.240 So, we have

00:24:01.800 these record

00:24:03.260 highs all over

00:24:04.380 the place.

00:24:05.280 30 million

00:24:06.000 people with

00:24:06.700 pretty serious

00:24:07.980 heat warnings.

00:24:09.260 Yesterday, I

00:24:10.080 kept getting

00:24:10.660 information from

00:24:12.800 my local

00:24:14.200 energy company,

00:24:15.380 PG&E,

00:24:16.560 telling me that

00:24:17.260 they were maybe

00:24:18.340 going to turn

00:24:18.880 my power off

00:24:19.660 for one or

00:24:20.820 two hours.

00:24:24.500 Smart people

00:24:25.440 in the comments.

00:24:26.600 So, the

00:24:26.840 question I

00:24:27.320 asked is,

00:24:28.520 would you be

00:24:29.220 persuaded by

00:24:29.860 30 million

00:24:30.560 people being

00:24:31.380 under excessive

00:24:32.060 heat warnings?

00:24:33.120 And almost all

00:24:34.060 of you said no.

00:24:35.200 Correct.

00:24:36.360 That is correct.

00:24:37.720 Having an

00:24:38.740 excessive high

00:24:40.140 temperatures does

00:24:41.240 not prove

00:24:41.920 climate change.

00:24:43.520 We all agree

00:24:44.140 with that,

00:24:44.500 right?

00:24:45.400 That just

00:24:45.820 because you

00:24:46.280 set a record,

00:24:47.980 that's not

00:24:48.820 enough.

00:24:49.700 Suppose we

00:24:50.400 set a record

00:24:53.180 every year for

00:24:53.840 10 years in

00:24:54.480 a row.

00:24:55.420 Would that

00:24:55.820 change your

00:24:56.240 mind?

00:24:58.260 How about

00:24:58.940 20 years?

00:25:00.360 Suppose we

00:25:01.280 had a new

00:25:02.000 high.

00:25:02.800 I don't think

00:25:03.380 this is likely.

00:25:04.680 But suppose we

00:25:05.440 had a new

00:25:06.100 high every

00:25:07.720 year for

00:25:08.220 20 years in

00:25:08.900 a row.

00:25:09.780 At the end

00:25:10.260 of 20 years,

00:25:11.000 would you say,

00:25:11.640 yeah, that was

00:25:12.080 probably something

00:25:13.060 going on there.

00:25:15.040 Let's see,

00:25:15.540 would that

00:25:16.120 convince you?

00:25:17.200 20 years every

00:25:18.340 year is a new

00:25:18.880 high.

00:25:21.360 A lot of

00:25:22.000 people say no.

00:25:23.220 And no is the

00:25:23.960 correct answer.

00:25:26.040 Yeah, no is the

00:25:26.840 correct answer.

00:25:27.860 Because 20 years

00:25:28.900 is not very long

00:25:29.720 in terms of the

00:25:31.880 history of the

00:25:32.540 earth.

00:25:33.300 You could have

00:25:34.140 a 20-year

00:25:34.780 period where

00:25:35.640 things are

00:25:37.420 different.

00:25:38.360 Now, if that

00:25:40.020 were the only

00:25:40.760 evidence, I

00:25:41.620 would say maybe

00:25:42.380 that's not as

00:25:43.340 credible or

00:25:44.140 convincing as it

00:25:44.940 should be.

00:25:45.760 But it won't be

00:25:46.580 the only evidence.

00:25:47.840 There will be

00:25:48.400 evidence from a

00:25:49.620 variety of

00:25:50.160 sources, etc.

00:25:51.320 So we'll keep

00:25:52.140 an eye on that.

00:25:54.420 Why are we

00:25:55.000 having rolling

00:25:55.620 blackouts in

00:25:56.600 California?

00:25:57.700 So yesterday

00:25:58.360 was the first

00:25:58.960 day they said

00:25:59.680 your electricity

00:26:01.120 might go off

00:26:02.000 voluntarily,

00:26:03.560 meaning the

00:26:04.200 power company

00:26:05.320 might turn it

00:26:05.900 off just to save

00:26:06.660 electricity.

00:26:07.880 Well, as

00:26:08.480 Michael Schellenberger

00:26:09.420 tweets, there

00:26:12.600 was a California

00:26:13.400 electricity grid

00:26:14.460 manager who

00:26:15.240 explained it in

00:26:16.040 2020.

00:26:17.080 Quote,

00:26:17.560 people wonder

00:26:18.440 how we made

00:26:19.140 it through the

00:26:19.620 heat wave of

00:26:20.240 2006.

00:26:21.580 The answer is

00:26:22.640 we had San

00:26:23.680 Onofre, a

00:26:24.760 nuclear plant,

00:26:25.660 and a number of

00:26:26.720 other plants

00:26:27.260 totaling thousands

00:26:28.140 of megawatts that

00:26:29.180 are not there

00:26:29.680 today.

00:26:30.720 So the reason

00:26:31.340 we don't have

00:26:31.860 enough electricity

00:26:32.640 is not climate

00:26:34.640 change.

00:26:35.080 change, it's

00:26:36.520 because we

00:26:37.020 ignored climate

00:26:37.660 change, because

00:26:39.640 getting rid of

00:26:40.760 nuclear power

00:26:41.620 plants is like

00:26:42.840 being really 1.00

00:26:43.460 dumb if you 1.00

00:26:44.900 have a climate 1.00

00:26:45.820 emergency that

00:26:46.640 you believe is

00:26:47.340 your top priority.

00:26:50.060 And I was

00:26:51.120 listening yesterday

00:26:52.220 to a podcast in

00:26:53.900 which I heard

00:26:56.360 some very smart

00:26:57.040 people say,

00:26:59.680 for example,

00:27:00.940 that you should

00:27:01.360 put nuclear power

00:27:02.220 plants and

00:27:03.140 desalinization

00:27:04.500 plants up and

00:27:06.220 down the coast

00:27:06.820 of Northern

00:27:07.600 California or

00:27:08.500 all of California

00:27:09.600 and just solve

00:27:11.140 that problem.

00:27:12.620 It would be

00:27:13.220 very expensive,

00:27:14.320 but how would

00:27:15.640 you like to

00:27:16.040 have no water?

00:27:17.800 So there are

00:27:18.320 your two choices.

00:27:19.240 It's expensive

00:27:20.000 or you don't

00:27:21.980 have water.

00:27:23.960 Easy decision.

00:27:25.120 If you had a

00:27:25.780 good government,

00:27:27.640 that would be

00:27:28.040 an easy decision.

00:27:28.840 Well, does

00:27:30.040 anybody know if

00:27:30.960 Branson is up in

00:27:32.280 space yet or

00:27:33.340 up in near

00:27:34.360 space?

00:27:34.880 I think he's

00:27:35.300 going to be

00:27:35.600 near space.

00:27:37.180 Does anybody

00:27:37.840 know if he

00:27:38.260 left?

00:27:38.540 There was a

00:27:38.880 delay in the

00:27:40.300 Virgin Galactic

00:27:41.220 flight and

00:27:42.620 Richard Branson

00:27:43.680 was going to be

00:27:44.540 on it himself,

00:27:45.620 Sir Richard

00:27:46.200 Branson.

00:27:47.280 And I believe

00:27:48.720 he had delayed

00:27:49.300 90 minutes.

00:27:51.440 So it hasn't

00:27:52.340 taken off yet,

00:27:53.080 I'm hearing in the

00:27:53.840 comments.

00:27:54.160 All right.

00:27:54.500 How does it

00:27:58.560 make you feel

00:27:59.420 that Branson

00:28:01.040 is in the

00:28:01.620 flight and

00:28:02.520 likewise that

00:28:03.360 Bezos will be

00:28:04.340 in his first

00:28:05.880 flight?

00:28:06.860 How does that

00:28:07.340 make you feel?

00:28:09.860 Because I

00:28:10.440 understand what

00:28:11.040 Branson is doing.

00:28:12.140 He's not only

00:28:12.860 bringing attention

00:28:13.600 to it by being

00:28:14.400 on it, but he's

00:28:15.700 also trying to

00:28:16.620 convince people

00:28:17.380 that it'll be a

00:28:18.900 safe way to fly

00:28:19.680 in the future.

00:28:20.720 But here's the

00:28:21.340 thing.

00:28:22.640 Elon Musk has

00:28:23.640 told us directly

00:28:24.480 people are going

00:28:25.160 to die in the

00:28:26.820 quest to get to

00:28:27.720 Mars, which I

00:28:28.880 think is one of

00:28:29.360 the smartest

00:28:29.740 things anybody

00:28:30.280 ever said in

00:28:30.840 public, by the

00:28:31.520 way.

00:28:32.460 When Elon Musk

00:28:33.440 says, you know,

00:28:34.120 people are going

00:28:34.540 to die and he's 0.78

00:28:36.140 working on a

00:28:36.680 project that's

00:28:37.320 going to kill 1.00

00:28:37.660 people. 0.99

00:28:38.920 But we kind

00:28:40.040 of have to get

00:28:40.540 to Mars.

00:28:41.300 You know, the

00:28:41.820 future of

00:28:42.720 humanity does

00:28:44.300 require us to

00:28:45.180 settle space.

00:28:45.960 There's no doubt

00:28:46.500 about that.

00:28:47.860 And I love the

00:28:49.620 fact that he's

00:28:50.100 transparent about

00:28:50.820 it.

00:28:50.940 Yeah, people are

00:28:51.440 going to die. 0.95

00:28:52.260 I don't know if 0.85

00:28:52.860 Elon Musk will

00:28:53.620 be on any of

00:28:54.320 his upcoming

00:28:55.220 flights, but it

00:28:56.940 would be not

00:28:58.760 unreasonable for

00:28:59.880 him not to,

00:29:00.800 because I'd

00:29:02.920 much rather have

00:29:03.740 Elon Musk alive

00:29:05.040 than dead.

00:29:07.740 Now, I don't

00:29:09.000 know if I feel

00:29:09.580 exactly the same

00:29:10.500 about Richard

00:29:11.100 Branson, or even

00:29:14.040 Jeff Bezos, who's

00:29:15.440 now sort of retired

00:29:16.600 from Amazon.

00:29:18.260 Now, I don't want

00:29:18.900 any of them to

00:29:19.480 die, just to be 0.95

00:29:21.340 clear. 0.78

00:29:21.620 You know, I

00:29:22.660 very much want

00:29:23.420 them all to

00:29:23.860 live, and I

00:29:24.820 think they all

00:29:26.240 have great value

00:29:27.080 to the planet.

00:29:28.660 But Elon Musk,

00:29:29.600 probably the only

00:29:30.240 one whose direct

00:29:31.840 contribution makes

00:29:33.020 a difference to

00:29:33.640 whether we'll get

00:29:34.340 to Mars.

00:29:36.000 Probably it does

00:29:36.780 matter who's in

00:29:37.440 charge there.

00:29:38.720 So, I would

00:29:40.200 hate, oh my

00:29:42.240 God, I would

00:29:42.800 hate to see

00:29:43.400 anything happen

00:29:44.180 to Branson or

00:29:45.660 Bezos.

00:29:46.200 That would be

00:29:47.540 just so bad

00:29:48.640 for space

00:29:51.100 exploration.

00:29:52.260 But on the

00:29:52.660 other hand, you

00:29:54.140 have to give

00:29:54.760 them a compliment

00:29:55.440 for leading

00:29:56.740 with putting

00:29:57.740 skin in the

00:29:58.380 game.

00:29:59.720 You know?

00:30:00.280 Is it a

00:30:01.040 coincidence that

00:30:01.840 these two leaders

00:30:02.720 are unusually

00:30:03.780 successful?

00:30:05.980 Maybe this is

00:30:06.860 why, right?

00:30:08.240 Maybe this is

00:30:09.140 exactly why

00:30:09.800 they're successful,

00:30:11.380 that they'll get 1.00

00:30:12.160 on their damn 1.00

00:30:12.780 plane, or rocket, 1.00

00:30:14.680 or whatever it

00:30:15.080 is.

00:30:15.200 They'll take it

00:30:16.240 themselves, and

00:30:17.740 they'll risk

00:30:18.440 dying.

00:30:20.440 Three minutes 0.87

00:30:20.900 and counting.

00:30:23.080 Oh, it left

00:30:23.640 off.

00:30:24.240 So, where are

00:30:26.940 we?

00:30:27.160 Are we actually

00:30:27.660 in countdown?

00:30:29.320 Give me an

00:30:29.840 update on that

00:30:30.420 as we go.

00:30:32.300 All right, here's

00:30:32.880 my suggestion for

00:30:34.220 those of you who

00:30:35.660 don't like critical

00:30:36.460 race theory in

00:30:38.260 schools.

00:30:39.400 Here's how I

00:30:40.140 would handle it.

00:30:41.520 You know, oh,

00:30:44.160 he launched

00:30:44.540 already?

00:30:44.900 Or did he?

00:30:47.440 All right.

00:30:49.520 So, you know

00:30:50.360 that if you argue

00:30:51.260 against something

00:30:51.920 you don't like,

00:30:52.820 the people on the

00:30:53.520 other side just

00:30:54.180 dig in deeper,

00:30:55.400 right?

00:30:56.100 So, telling people

00:30:57.180 that something is a

00:30:58.040 bad idea, that they

00:30:59.780 think is a good

00:31:00.460 idea, does it ever

00:31:01.780 work?

00:31:03.020 No.

00:31:03.900 In the real world,

00:31:04.900 it just never works.

00:31:06.640 Usually, they've

00:31:07.460 already thought of

00:31:08.120 your argument anyway.

00:31:08.980 But once people dig

00:31:11.160 into a side, they're

00:31:12.240 kind of hard to

00:31:12.880 move.

00:31:13.900 But there is a way

00:31:14.940 to do it.

00:31:15.920 It doesn't work

00:31:16.480 every time, but it

00:31:17.760 goes like this, and

00:31:18.600 you've heard it

00:31:19.040 before.

00:31:20.080 If you buy into a

00:31:21.620 bad idea and then

00:31:22.860 extend it, you can

00:31:24.460 just break it.

00:31:25.200 In other words,

00:31:26.700 pretend that you

00:31:27.760 think it's a good

00:31:28.440 idea, buy into it,

00:31:31.200 and then take it to

00:31:32.260 its logical death.

00:31:34.760 Here's how you do

00:31:35.540 that with critical

00:31:36.280 race theory.

00:31:37.420 Instead of saying,

00:31:38.480 no, I don't like this

00:31:39.860 critical race theory,

00:31:41.460 I think it's racist,

00:31:42.740 but in a different

00:31:43.320 way, nobody can hear

00:31:44.880 that argument.

00:31:46.220 Instead, do this.

00:31:47.580 Say, yes, we should

00:31:48.620 do critical race theory

00:31:50.020 in schools.

00:31:50.740 And there are two

00:31:51.780 improvements I would

00:31:52.700 like to add.

00:31:54.460 Two improvements.

00:31:56.620 How does anybody

00:31:57.600 argue against

00:31:58.300 improvements?

00:32:00.140 Not only do you

00:32:01.120 like critical race

00:32:01.940 theory, but I like

00:32:02.920 it too.

00:32:03.900 And here's how I

00:32:04.840 would improve it.

00:32:05.860 Because you and I

00:32:06.780 both like it, wouldn't

00:32:08.360 we like it to be

00:32:09.100 even better?

00:32:10.320 Really?

00:32:11.100 I mean, it's so

00:32:12.200 good now, let's have

00:32:14.900 a little more of

00:32:15.480 that, right?

00:32:17.260 So here's how I'd

00:32:18.200 make it better.

00:32:18.680 Number one, I would

00:32:20.280 make a national,

00:32:21.560 maybe a federal

00:32:22.180 requirement, at least

00:32:24.140 a state requirement,

00:32:25.720 that parents have to

00:32:27.280 be given the

00:32:27.940 materials.

00:32:30.180 Parents have to

00:32:31.860 be presented with

00:32:32.920 the same materials

00:32:34.080 for the critical race

00:32:35.380 theory that the

00:32:36.500 children are being

00:32:37.240 taught.

00:32:38.780 A legal requirement.

00:32:40.940 Why?

00:32:41.720 Just to make them

00:32:42.560 better informed

00:32:43.240 parents, because

00:32:44.280 parents are part of

00:32:45.220 the process, right?

00:32:47.240 What would happen

00:32:48.280 if parents were well

00:32:50.200 informed and had a

00:32:51.520 real clean summary

00:32:52.600 of what critical race

00:32:54.620 theory is teaching?

00:32:56.460 Would they still be

00:32:57.520 supportive?

00:32:58.720 I don't know, but I

00:33:00.400 love critical race

00:33:01.360 theory, and so for

00:33:02.660 me, the more you can

00:33:04.260 spread it, the better.

00:33:06.160 So if you go teach it

00:33:07.120 to the kids, well, you

00:33:08.980 want it to stick,

00:33:09.800 right?

00:33:10.460 So also make the

00:33:11.840 materials available to

00:33:12.860 their parents, because

00:33:14.280 their parents can then

00:33:15.260 reinforce it when the

00:33:16.200 kids get home, right?

00:33:17.580 The more critical race 0.57

00:33:19.320 theory, the better.

00:33:20.640 So give it to the

00:33:21.480 kids, but make it a 0.72

00:33:22.580 requirement that the

00:33:24.060 parents have to see

00:33:24.900 the details.

00:33:26.760 See where I'm going?

00:33:28.800 You can embrace

00:33:29.880 something until it

00:33:30.700 dies.

00:33:31.780 Here's the second part

00:33:32.960 of that.

00:33:37.040 So you require the

00:33:38.680 kids to see it, and

00:33:42.280 you let the

00:33:43.300 transparency kill the

00:33:44.540 bad parts, but I'm

00:33:50.340 having a brief memory

00:33:52.120 problem here.

00:33:55.400 The second part, which

00:33:56.660 I just wrote about on

00:33:57.660 Locals, can somebody

00:33:58.520 remind me what I just

00:33:59.520 wrote?

00:34:01.120 Because I just blogged

00:34:02.520 this on the Locals

00:34:03.300 platform.

00:34:04.200 All right, they'll tell

00:34:04.680 me in a moment.

00:34:05.380 Yeah, I'm having a

00:34:05.980 Biden moment.

00:34:07.120 The problem is that I

00:34:08.180 make notes for myself,

00:34:09.400 so I don't do what I'm

00:34:10.260 doing now.

00:34:10.740 And the place where

00:34:13.500 this note belongs is

00:34:15.280 right in this little

00:34:15.900 space, where apparently

00:34:17.560 I was just about to put

00:34:18.980 my note about what I

00:34:20.120 was going to talk about

00:34:20.880 right now, and then I

00:34:22.260 got distracted.

00:34:25.660 All right.

00:34:26.700 Yes, there we go.

00:34:27.660 Thank you.

00:34:28.340 So the point I was

00:34:29.800 going to say is that you

00:34:31.480 should include in the

00:34:32.360 critical race theory

00:34:33.240 training that teachers'

00:34:35.620 unions are the biggest

00:34:36.540 source of systemic

00:34:37.560 racism.

00:34:38.900 Does anybody disagree?

00:34:40.740 Teachers' unions are 0.74

00:34:43.100 what prevent school

00:34:44.380 competition.

00:34:45.940 School competition is

00:34:47.260 the only thing that

00:34:48.180 will ever get good

00:34:49.240 schools for everybody,

00:34:50.560 or as good as we can

00:34:51.780 get.

00:34:52.580 So it is the teachers'

00:34:53.960 unions who need to be

00:34:55.820 included as a lesson

00:34:57.140 within critical race

00:34:58.440 theory to improve it.

00:35:00.600 How can you have

00:35:01.540 critical race theory

00:35:02.640 training and leave out

00:35:04.460 the biggest source of

00:35:05.520 systemic racism?

00:35:07.180 You can't do that.

00:35:08.060 So there should be a

00:35:09.940 module that is included

00:35:12.660 in it about teachers'

00:35:14.980 unions being the biggest

00:35:15.940 problem of all.

00:35:18.080 So those are the two

00:35:19.080 things.

00:35:19.540 Make the parents see all

00:35:20.600 of the materials and

00:35:21.500 include teachers'

00:35:22.980 unions being the biggest

00:35:24.160 source of that problem.

00:35:26.340 In those cases, bring it

00:35:28.660 on.

00:35:29.900 Let's see us some

00:35:30.940 critical race theory.

00:35:32.160 Now, you may say to

00:35:33.040 yourself, but Scott,

00:35:34.760 aren't you accidentally

00:35:35.880 accepting all the other

00:35:37.480 things that I don't like

00:35:38.660 in critical race theory?

00:35:40.120 And the answer is,

00:35:41.220 this is how persuasion

00:35:42.380 works.

00:35:43.600 The fact that you're

00:35:44.780 uncomfortable with me

00:35:46.820 saying that I would like

00:35:47.820 any part of critical race

00:35:49.120 theory is what makes you

00:35:50.960 hard, makes it hard for

00:35:52.800 you to look away.

00:35:54.560 That's the intentional

00:35:55.720 wrongness.

00:35:56.960 I could have easily fixed

00:35:58.360 it by saying, oh, I'd like

00:36:00.060 to take all of the parts I

00:36:01.420 don't like out of critical

00:36:02.560 race theory.

00:36:03.900 That makes sense, right?

00:36:05.060 Wouldn't you like to take

00:36:05.980 all of the parts away that

00:36:07.100 you don't like?

00:36:08.580 But by not doing that, I

00:36:11.240 made my proposition,

00:36:14.940 ugh, a little, there's

00:36:16.780 something wrong with it,

00:36:17.600 right?

00:36:18.620 It would be wrong to

00:36:19.700 accept anything that's

00:36:20.820 wrong, if you know it's

00:36:22.880 wrong.

00:36:23.560 But I've told you directly

00:36:24.880 that I would accept it with

00:36:26.440 a couple of tweaks.

00:36:27.640 Now, that's really just to

00:36:28.820 get more attention on the

00:36:30.240 tweaks I'm talking about.

00:36:31.640 It's not really because I'd

00:36:32.920 like the rest of it.

00:36:33.880 Although I don't know,

00:36:35.460 because I've never seen

00:36:36.140 it.

00:36:38.120 So, if I did, maybe I'd

00:36:40.660 feel differently.

00:36:43.960 Speaking of vaccinations,

00:36:47.320 which we weren't, how many

00:36:49.300 lives do you think were

00:36:50.280 saved in, let's say, just

00:36:51.460 the United States, based on

00:36:53.440 vaccinations?

00:36:55.140 In the comments, what would

00:36:56.620 be your guess?

00:36:58.100 How many estimated lives?

00:36:59.880 We'll just say between now

00:37:01.640 and the end of the year.

00:37:03.220 So, hopefully, that would

00:37:04.580 be, capture most of it.

00:37:07.220 How many lives do you

00:37:08.200 think were saved by

00:37:09.380 vaccinations in the United

00:37:11.060 States?

00:37:11.760 Just the United States.

00:37:13.960 Just the United States.

00:37:15.640 The answer is, oh, I'm

00:37:17.160 seeing pretty good guesses

00:37:18.100 there.

00:37:18.540 Your guesses are

00:37:19.220 actually pretty good.

00:37:21.060 Now, that doesn't mean it's

00:37:22.160 right.

00:37:22.480 But there is a source that

00:37:23.560 estimated that without a

00:37:25.720 vaccination program by the end

00:37:27.120 of this year, there would

00:37:28.680 have been approximately

00:37:29.420 279,000 additional deaths

00:37:32.200 and, you know, 1.25

00:37:34.900 hospitalizations.

00:37:36.840 1.25 million.

00:37:38.500 And that would just be the

00:37:39.640 United States alone.

00:37:41.760 So, does President Trump

00:37:44.860 and President Biden after him

00:37:48.340 for following up get credit

00:37:50.260 for saving 279,000 people?

00:37:54.520 Do they get credit for that?

00:37:56.080 And do you believe it?

00:37:59.980 I'm seeing some doubt.

00:38:01.780 There seems to be some doubt

00:38:02.960 about whether you could

00:38:03.860 measure this.

00:38:05.080 Well, as someone who has

00:38:06.220 done many estimates of

00:38:08.000 numbers of things in my

00:38:09.460 professional life, I don't

00:38:11.600 think you can measure this.

00:38:13.940 I feel like any estimate of

00:38:15.700 this is going to be a little

00:38:16.980 bit suspicious, if you know

00:38:18.560 what I mean.

00:38:19.760 But, when you come up with an

00:38:21.660 estimate that just

00:38:22.640 coincidentally happens to be

00:38:24.140 right in the range of things

00:38:25.340 you'd think it would be, then

00:38:27.340 you should be really

00:38:28.200 suspicious.

00:38:29.920 What happens when the

00:38:31.120 estimate that, you know,

00:38:32.980 you'd put a lot of time and

00:38:34.100 effort into it, and you're

00:38:35.200 figuring out all the

00:38:36.180 variables, and you're trying

00:38:37.800 to isolate variables and

00:38:39.280 all that, and after all that

00:38:41.640 work, you come out to a

00:38:43.800 number that's just about the

00:38:45.200 same as what you might have

00:38:46.220 guessed?

00:38:46.600 That's a little bit of a flag.

00:38:50.320 You know what I mean?

00:38:51.560 It's a little bit too close to

00:38:53.140 exactly what you thought it

00:38:54.240 would come out as, right

00:38:55.300 around 300,000.

00:38:56.640 If I had said, hey, there's

00:38:58.380 going to be a study on

00:38:59.240 vaccination effectiveness, how

00:39:00.900 many people do you think is

00:39:01.920 saved?

00:39:03.020 I'll bet most of you would

00:39:04.260 have guessed somewhere between

00:39:05.400 100,000 and 500,000.

00:39:08.000 Right?

00:39:09.180 And there it is, right in the

00:39:10.340 middle of that range.

00:39:11.040 So, while I do believe that

00:39:15.360 vaccinations have saved a lot

00:39:16.880 of lives, I don't believe you

00:39:18.860 can estimate it with any kind

00:39:21.420 of confidence.

00:39:23.640 All right.

00:39:25.060 So, Kamala Harris continues to 0.59

00:39:26.960 be a nightmare for the

00:39:28.500 Democrats in the most

00:39:30.740 entertaining way.

00:39:31.760 She might be the least 0.91

00:39:33.000 competent politician we've

00:39:35.940 ever seen in the White House.

00:39:37.240 I don't know.

00:39:37.820 Is anybody less competent than

00:39:39.420 she is? 0.92

00:39:39.800 It's really shocking.

00:39:43.160 And now the latest

00:39:44.220 controversy is that she's 1.00

00:39:46.060 talking about a possible

00:39:48.100 compromise with IDs for

00:39:50.900 voters.

00:39:52.180 And, of course, forcing

00:39:53.700 somebody to have an ID reduces

00:39:55.620 the number of people who can

00:39:56.640 vote, but we don't know by

00:39:58.920 how much.

00:40:00.320 And now she's saying that

00:40:01.600 rural people can't even get a 1.00

00:40:03.100 photocopy of their ID, so it

00:40:05.100 would be harder for them to

00:40:05.880 register to vote.

00:40:07.660 And rural people said,

00:40:09.800 what?

00:40:11.500 We might be rural, but we

00:40:14.040 know how to make a

00:40:14.720 photocopy.

00:40:16.020 And I ask you this question.

00:40:18.260 Why do you need a

00:40:19.260 photocopy?

00:40:20.760 You can't take a

00:40:22.300 smartphone picture of an

00:40:24.460 ID and just send it to an

00:40:27.020 address?

00:40:27.420 If there's a physical

00:40:30.020 photocopy requirement,

00:40:35.680 if you have a physical

00:40:37.120 photocopy requirement, you

00:40:39.160 couldn't also have just an

00:40:40.460 email address that you just

00:40:41.680 send a digital image.

00:40:44.060 And then if grandma doesn't

00:40:45.120 have a photocopier and grandma

00:40:46.740 doesn't have a smartphone,

00:40:48.740 grandma says, hey, can you just

00:40:50.240 take a picture of my ID and send

00:40:51.900 it to this email address?

00:40:52.960 And your grandkid just takes a

00:40:55.160 picture of it.

00:40:56.320 It feels like this is

00:40:57.480 solvable with technology.

00:40:59.660 We should not be arguing over

00:41:01.360 what Kamala Harris calls

00:41:03.800 Xeroxes.

00:41:06.660 It's 2021 for God's sakes.

00:41:10.160 If you're using the word

00:41:11.480 Xeroxing, that's a red flag right 0.99

00:41:14.200 there, as she did.

00:41:15.720 But then she corrected it to

00:41:17.340 photocopies, realizing what she'd

00:41:18.760 done.

00:41:19.380 But if we're even talking

00:41:20.720 about photocopies, what the

00:41:22.580 hell is going on?

00:41:23.460 Oh, did the launch?

00:41:25.140 Launch just happened?

00:41:27.080 Keep me informed.

00:41:28.640 I want to know that he made it

00:41:30.220 safely, at least past the

00:41:31.880 launch.

00:41:34.560 Very exciting.

00:41:35.900 And congratulations.

00:41:37.980 He's in the air.

00:41:39.740 God, imagine what it feels

00:41:40.860 like.

00:41:42.020 How would you like to be

00:41:43.040 Richard Branson right now?

00:41:45.460 He's actually going into, I

00:41:47.380 think, near space.

00:41:48.340 Not quite space.

00:41:50.340 On a rocket that he caused

00:41:52.500 to be built.

00:41:54.500 Wow.

00:41:55.620 I would be scared to death.

00:41:58.220 But, quite exciting.

00:42:04.400 Alright.

00:42:05.320 Yeah, I don't think I'll be

00:42:06.220 signing up for any space

00:42:07.400 stuff immediately.

00:42:12.280 And apparently, so Kamala

00:42:14.580 Harris is overwhelmed with all

00:42:16.320 these vague jobs that, let's

00:42:20.380 see, what is she in charge 1.00

00:42:21.180 of?

00:42:21.480 She's in charge of looking 0.97

00:42:23.840 into the origins of the

00:42:25.160 southern border migrant

00:42:26.360 surge, expanding voter

00:42:27.900 rights, closing the digital

00:42:29.380 divide, space council, and

00:42:32.120 some other stuff.

00:42:32.720 And here's the worst answer

00:42:35.700 ever done.

00:42:36.300 She was asked, asked about

00:42:38.200 whether she had too much on

00:42:39.300 her plate.

00:42:40.440 And she said, quote, yeah,

00:42:42.760 maybe I don't say no enough.

00:42:45.820 Do you want to hear somebody

00:42:47.880 who might be president of the

00:42:49.140 United States, do you ever

00:42:51.040 want them to hear, do you ever

00:42:52.740 want to hear them say, maybe I

00:42:54.420 don't say no enough?

00:42:55.460 That is the weakest statement

00:42:58.040 any politician ever said.

00:43:01.320 Do you want a president who

00:43:02.540 can't say no?

00:43:05.220 That just makes you completely

00:43:07.000 unqualified to be a leader.

00:43:09.760 Like, you can't say no, even to

00:43:11.780 your boss, I mean, even though

00:43:13.240 it's the president.

00:43:14.140 You should be able to say no.

00:43:16.420 If you can't do that, you're not

00:43:17.920 very useful as a leader.

00:43:21.300 But she's very motivated by all

00:43:23.020 the hard work.

00:43:23.740 Another terrible answer.

00:43:25.700 Makes you sound like a wonk.

00:43:28.420 Don't be motivated by all the

00:43:30.040 hard work.

00:43:31.280 How about be motivated by all

00:43:34.200 the benefits you could bring to

00:43:35.680 the country?

00:43:36.420 Something like that.

00:43:39.060 So there's some suspect they

00:43:40.480 found with a bunch of guns in a

00:43:42.120 hotel in Denver, and they're

00:43:43.840 afraid it was going to be a mass

00:43:44.960 suicide attempt.

00:43:46.680 But here's the weird part.

00:43:48.260 There were four people involved.

00:43:51.360 When have you ever heard of a

00:43:53.040 sort of a mass killing, there was

00:43:56.580 really sort of a suicide attempt,

00:43:58.900 you know, somebody just trying to

00:43:59.880 go out big, when there were four

00:44:02.200 people involved in the plot?

00:44:04.960 It seems to eliminate it, doesn't

00:44:07.060 it?

00:44:09.800 All right.

00:44:10.480 I'm just looking at your comments for

00:44:15.440 a moment.

00:44:16.720 All right.

00:44:17.020 CPAC is happening.

00:44:17.960 People are going to be outraged.

00:44:20.040 Got more of that coming.

00:44:22.220 And that is just about all the news

00:44:25.920 that's worth talking about.

00:44:27.840 Now, apparently the Democrats are

00:44:29.620 panicked because when they do a poll

00:44:31.900 of people and ask them, what are Biden's

00:44:35.040 accomplishments?

00:44:35.560 What do you think they say?

00:44:38.080 So in the comments, tell me, what do

00:44:40.220 you think people say when the public

00:44:42.900 is asked, what are Biden's

00:44:44.400 accomplishments so far?

00:44:47.440 The answer is, they don't know of any.

00:44:51.280 Because even people who would say, oh, he

00:44:53.420 did a good job rolling out the vaccines,

00:44:55.840 they kind of know it would have been the

00:44:57.440 same under any president, right?

00:44:59.800 Don't we know that?

00:45:01.040 Or at least we don't know how it would

00:45:02.420 be any different.

00:45:03.020 Because it was going to happen.

00:45:04.660 It wasn't like he had the idea.

00:45:06.500 Hey, I've got an idea.

00:45:08.040 Why don't we implement the vaccines that 0.95

00:45:10.580 we made?

00:45:11.920 So I'm not sure what Biden actually added

00:45:13.920 to that process other than taking credit.

00:45:16.800 Yeah.

00:45:17.040 So what did he do?

00:45:17.800 Eat ice cream and make the border

00:45:19.200 situation worse and make Russia, China

00:45:22.480 and Iran hate us a little bit more? 0.51

00:45:25.320 What?

00:45:26.200 It would be really hard to come up with

00:45:28.020 any accomplishment.

00:45:28.700 It's starting to look as if the

00:45:32.580 Republicans have a real strong midterm

00:45:34.820 coming, which would not be surprising

00:45:36.440 historically.

00:45:38.460 Yeah, he's got crime spiking off the

00:45:40.680 charts.

00:45:43.160 He's good at stairs, somebody says.

00:45:46.460 He brought decency back to the White 0.99

00:45:48.400 House.

00:45:49.860 Did he?

00:45:51.020 So we know he lied.

00:45:54.380 Right?

00:45:54.900 We know he's done anti-science stuff.

00:45:58.920 All of the reasons that he ran for office,

00:46:01.980 he's proven didn't work.

00:46:06.520 Right?

00:46:07.180 All right.

00:46:07.540 Well, that's all I've got for today.

00:46:09.640 And I will talk to you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - July 11, 2021

Episode 1433 Scott Adams： How to Make Bad Ideas Go Away, and Coffee Too

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript