Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1475 Scott Adams： Fresh Coffee and Even Fresher News. Let's Criticize the Dopes in Charge.

00:00:00.000 well it's time time for coffee with Scott Adams and I don't think it gets much better than this

00:00:11.080 all day long so better enjoy it grab that pleasure while you can grab it by the neck

00:00:17.560 and let's enjoy it and to enjoy it to his maximum potential all you need is a cup or mug or a glass

00:00:23.680 of tank or chalice or stein a canteen jug or flax a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite

00:00:27.080 liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine to the day

00:00:32.940 the thing that makes everything better it's called yep that's right the simultaneous it but it happens

00:00:40.480 now go I feel my need for a third booster shot just decreased to five percent won't stay that way

00:00:54.860 apparently but uh good for now we're good for now let us begin our episode by talking about

00:01:03.540 anecdotal persuasion anecdotal persuasion um as you know if you watch CNN at all what is it that they

00:01:16.480 want us to understand well one thing more than anything else orange man bad we'll get to that

00:01:23.600 later but there's a second thing they want us to believe which is that they are the the uh the

00:01:28.920 network of science who support the party of science the democrats they're all about the science

00:01:36.680 the science and they would like to give you data good solid data within the context of science and that

00:01:47.220 will help you all make really good decisions uh except that the way they're persuading you

00:01:53.220 is with anecdotes what that's right even CNN knows that they can't convince anybody with science

00:02:02.100 because science is really important except it doesn't work for persuasion now in a sense it does

00:02:11.620 because the most the most persuasive thing you could do is to stop using data which CNN has done

00:02:19.440 so instead of telling you that uh that uh vaccinations are good or that you should get them they'll give

00:02:28.740 you anecdotes of people having a bad time and instead of telling you here's the data that says climate

00:02:34.480 change is going to get you they say here's somebody who died in the flood so CNN is in this weird

00:02:42.700 situation where they're the promoters of science while couching all of their stories and anecdotes

00:02:49.920 literally the opposite of scientific thinking so that seems ironic except that it is actually quite

00:03:00.380 compatible with science to not tell people the science if you want to persuade people don't

00:03:07.780 tell them the science apparently that doesn't work you got to scare them scare them with stories so

00:03:13.140 here's one for today Melissa Joan Hart you know her from tv as uh Sabrina the teenage witch uh she was 1.00

00:03:23.100 fully vaccinated and still got sick with covid uh did not get hospitalized but she's having a tough time

00:03:29.360 with it now she might be on the list of people you'd say needs that third booster so CNN 0.99

00:03:37.460 is uh persuading us with anecdotes and it's working because scientifically speaking we don't get much

00:03:47.020 persuaded by facts but anecdotes yes would you like to hear a true story from behind the curtain

00:03:54.240 things that only minor celebrities like me and Sabrina the teenage witch uh experience true story

00:04:02.840 I once uh partnered with Joan Hart who was Sabrina the teenage witch on a local episode of Wheel of Fortune

00:04:12.740 so sometime back it was a while ago as you might imagine uh the the Wheel of Fortune show did a traveling

00:04:21.360 version where they would do the regular you know national show but they would also go to different

00:04:26.100 regions and do a local show and it would be local minor celebrities so I was one of the local minor

00:04:33.420 celebrities who appeared on a California version of the show and it was still you know it was Vanna 0.92

00:04:38.840 White and you know it was the regular staff they just did a local version and I was partnered with uh 0.99

00:04:44.840 because it was celebrities they put us on teams because we were too stupid to too dumb to do it 0.98

00:04:51.060 ourselves I guess so Melissa Joan Hart was on my team and uh we did not do well turns out turns out we did 0.97

00:05:00.640 not do well at all um and I that's where I learned that a 20 something uh person is not the best person to

00:05:10.960 have a wide range of the trivia of the world we got beaten by a retired ex-basketball professional

00:05:19.020 NBA player and uh I thought to myself if you get beaten in a battle of uh intelligence because part

00:05:28.840 of it is intelligence uh by a retired basketball player you need to erase your game a little bit so

00:05:37.040 so uh Sabrina the teenage witch and I got smoked at wheel of fortune one of my biggest failures

00:05:44.940 to this day I I I bow in shame so here's some more uh fake news maybe maybe so here's a story I

00:05:58.940 would have to see this with my own eyes to believe it's true because you know how the one way to

00:06:04.220 identify fake news I've told you many times it's a little bit too on the nose you know when the news

00:06:10.420 is a little bit too perfect it's usually not true it's one of the most predictive uh tells you know

00:06:19.300 something that will really tell you that something's not working out is uh

00:06:23.940 that's not really Melissa Joan Hart is it somebody's sending me a picture of Melissa Joan Hart that I don't

00:06:33.180 think is her is it anyway um so here's the news I don't believe that uh the Daily Mail is quoting

00:06:43.300 notes retrieved after the 2010 operation for uh to get Osama bin Laden and says that Osama had a

00:06:51.080 handwritten note it said he wanted Biden to be president of the U.S. uh and banned any attempt

00:06:57.600 to assassinate him uh because they wanted an incompetent president uh who will lead the U.S.

00:07:02.340 into crisis now does that sound real

00:07:05.680 what do you think I'd have to see the note I'd have to have that like a handwriting analyst uh look into

00:07:17.520 it yeah I'm seeing some people say it's true some people say it's fake I don't know I would say it

00:07:24.620 might be true it might be fake but but it is in the category of things that are usually fake

00:07:31.060 if I had to bet money on it I'd bet fake but maybe 40 chance it's true you know something like that

00:07:38.420 I mean it wouldn't be a good bet it wouldn't be a safe bet but I'd bet it's not true or that it's

00:07:44.200 out of context or something somebody said they heard that years ago it doesn't make it true

00:07:49.320 right well all right here's a another anecdotal persuasion from CNN um why is it that climate

00:08:00.980 change only makes storms and hurricanes worse why does climate change make everything worse

00:08:09.560 everywhere are you telling me that you can't come up with one story about the place that used to be

00:08:16.240 not as good for agriculture but they're having record agriculture no no there's no story like

00:08:22.940 that because it's not so much climate worsening although there's a lot of worsening going on it appears

00:08:31.520 but there's climate change wouldn't you expect just your common sense that there might be some

00:08:39.100 places in the globe that were a little too cool and making them a little warmer really help things

00:08:43.940 where are those stories and are you seeing the real story if you're only seeing the bad stuff

00:08:50.720 if the change is making some stuff worse and some stuff better let me ask you this could you have thrown a

00:08:59.580 dart at any point in the timeline in American let's say industrial age history and

00:09:08.280 could you not have found that there were more disasters in some places than usual at the same

00:09:16.700 time that some parts of the world were having a better than usual time I feel as though you could have

00:09:22.560 done these same anecdotal stories at any time in the past no matter what climate change had been

00:09:27.900 doing you tell me you can't find even if you took away all climate change right let's take the

00:09:34.520 assumption it makes no difference at all you don't think you could find lots of people lots of places on

00:09:39.640 earth setting records of course of course you could but you would also find places that are having the

00:09:46.120 best weather they've ever had I don't know that this should be persuading you it's not science

00:09:52.760 but that's that's your climate change persuasion all anecdote CBS News has decided that everything is

00:10:00.500 about climate change including the Taliban takeover and that one of the reasons that the Taliban so 1.00

00:10:07.420 easily got control of the country is that the rural places their crops had been destroyed by climate

00:10:15.000 change and then they were they're more easily co-opted into a new system because they were desperate

00:10:21.980 so don't you think that the news is going to figure out how to make climate change about

00:10:28.340 everything like every story is going to have to have a climate change angle how it made it worse

00:10:32.860 and the further they go with this the less credible they are it seems to me if they stuck with the

00:10:40.680 things that really seem pretty solid I think it would be a better argument than trying to make

00:10:46.820 everything that happens about climate change but on the other hand they're not making a logical

00:10:51.820 argument they're making an emotional one and for that this stuff probably works as I saw in the

00:10:58.220 comments that I was going to say it myself why is it that climate change made everything worse except

00:11:04.860 the poppy fields am I wrong were the were the poppy fields the only thing that wasn't affected by

00:11:15.140 climate change it turns out climate change might be really really good for poppies

00:11:20.580 and that's related to a another topic which is the question where does the Taliban get their funding

00:11:29.320 where do you think the Taliban gets their funding well almost entirely from illegal activities they're

00:11:37.620 basically you know the Taliban's basically an Islamic mafia and they sell drugs and traffic various things 0.61

00:11:46.660 and they make anywhere from hundreds of millions to you know a low billion per year from doing illegal

00:11:55.180 stuff kidnappings ransom mineral exploitation illegal tax collection well I don't know what's illegal

00:12:02.820 and that sort of thing now let's say they're selling illegal drugs poppies is their main source of income

00:12:14.100 what would be a way to destroy their poppy business and weaken them fentanyl now as you know I'm not

00:12:28.020 pro fentanyl fentanyl fentanyl is what probably killed my stepson but it's kind of weird that

00:12:35.400 Afghanistan is cozying up to China the main producer of fentanyl because I feel like you could produce 1.00

00:12:43.020 fentanyl cheaper and ship it easier I feel as if the poppy business might be in trouble am I wrong

00:12:52.920 because fentanyl apparently is cheaper easier you can ship it better you don't have to process it as

00:12:59.520 much you know if you got a lab you're you're set you don't need any property shouldn't be that hard

00:13:06.080 to get the chemicals because you can get them from China as much as you want right so I wonder if the

00:13:14.100 poppy business is going to take a hit secondly you know I heard lots of reports that we were intentionally

00:13:20.680 allowing the poppy fields to stay because it's the only way the poor people in Afghanistan could survive 0.99

00:13:27.220 they had to sell illegal drugs or else they'd starve to death well is that our problem still

00:13:36.040 I would say that when we were in Afghanistan and had you know a degree of control over the government

00:13:43.180 directly or indirectly it really was our problem to feed everybody and maybe we had to make some

00:13:50.440 tough choices about feeding the locals versus you know killing their their poppy business but we're 0.96

00:13:57.500 gone now can't we bomb it now now now that we're out of the business can't we just destroy all the 0.76

00:14:04.180 poppy fields and if we did what would happen it would just make fentanyl more available right 1.00

00:14:10.400 you know the fentanyl would just fill the the gap so I'm not entirely sure you could mow the poppy

00:14:17.220 fields and make any difference at all because it's just such a fungible thing that somebody would say

00:14:22.740 oh fewer poppies let's just crank up the fentanyl production we're we'll break even so I don't even

00:14:29.240 know if you can do anything about it um but I do think that fentanyl is one of the stories that has

00:14:36.240 one of these unintended consequence sort of things baked into it it'll either kill the poppy business 0.73

00:14:42.280 or replace it or something or make fentanyl bigger one of those um let's see here's a fake story

00:14:53.420 by lack of context all right so here here's a challenge to you I'm going to tell you a story

00:15:01.620 that's in the news that you all know about Afghanistan all right and then I'm going to tell

00:15:06.480 you the context that they don't tell you that as soon as you hear it you're going to say oh that is

00:15:11.040 true and you're going to be mad okay so my challenge is to make you mad at the quality of the news

00:15:19.560 coverage are you ready we're worried about the Taliban capturing a whole bunch of uh weapons that

00:15:27.100 Americans left that part's true as far as we know I mean it looks true um so we all know that story 0.98

00:15:34.360 and it's a bad bad thing right it's all bad now even if we even if the Taliban can't operate the 0.64

00:15:42.580 helicopters they could sell them somebody could maybe reverse engineer them maybe somebody would

00:15:48.040 use them you know Iran might use them against somebody I don't know so you could think of lots

00:15:54.120 of bad bad things that would happen because we left so many weapons behind here's what they didn't

00:16:01.000 tell you are you ready to get mad they also have the Taliban all of the weapons of the Afghan army 0.78

00:16:09.380 now how do you feel how much fucking difference does it make that they got all the American weapons we 0.96

00:16:17.880 left behind they got an army they got the whole Taliban army they have all the weapons that we left a 1.00

00:16:26.960 300,000 person Taliban army the Taliban army was like five times the size or no they the Afghan army

00:16:35.820 was about five times the size of the Taliban right so the Afghan army probably has five times the

00:16:43.940 weaponry that we left behind or something like that it's basically if you only if you own an entire

00:16:53.500 nation's army which is what the Taliban does they own the army do you really care about the extra weapons 0.90

00:17:00.440 that the Americans left let's put it into into context how many how many rifles were captured by the

00:17:09.540 Taliban because they were left behind probably a lot like it's big alarming number right but as a percentage

00:17:16.720 of all the weapons they gained by taking over an army they took over an army they own the army

00:17:25.160 I don't think a few warehouses of extra weapons are going to make that much difference now wouldn't we

00:17:33.640 prefer that they didn't have those weapons of course of course is it a mistake to leave them looks like

00:17:39.080 it it looks like a terrible mistake but I don't know if it's as big a deal as we're making it I feel

00:17:46.380 like the news has intentionally taken away the context and the context is they conquered a whole army

00:17:54.040 they own everything that the army owned it's all theirs now I don't know if it made any difference

00:18:00.920 I could easily see that there will be some things we learn about the decisions that the military made

00:18:08.520 about pulling out here's my prediction my prediction is we're going to learn some facts

00:18:16.400 that we don't know now that will change your mind about what happened one of those facts we might

00:18:22.700 learn is that a lot of the advanced equipment was disabled maybe another fact we might learn is that

00:18:29.960 it doesn't matter how many weapons the Taliban has because they have so many weapons from the army it

00:18:35.520 just doesn't matter and it's possible that the the Americans said you know what if we blow up our

00:18:40.660 own weapons we're going to injure some of our friends who are too nearby and we're going to scare

00:18:45.760 everybody and we're going to panic everybody it's possible that the military made a conscious decision

00:18:52.680 to leave the weapons meaning well obviously it was obviously it was a conscious decision but I mean they

00:18:59.400 might have actually calculated that it would be worse to destroy them because it might have caused you

00:19:06.360 know panic and might have hurt people who were nearby and I don't know now of course your common

00:19:12.340 sense says seriously you can't tell everybody to just back off from that warehouse and just you know

00:19:17.960 lob a bomb onto it well it seems like it I mean common sense says you can't just throw a hand grenade

00:19:23.620 in there and you know make sure you're you're effing up the the sightings and stuff on the weapons

00:19:29.140 I mean how hard would it be to lob a few grenades into the you know into the small arms place and blow

00:19:36.740 it up I don't know seems like you could you could damage enough of the weapons that they wouldn't fire

00:19:42.260 correctly um maybe not I don't know but and now we're talking about uh maybe dropping bombs on them

00:19:51.620 after the fact but now we can't do it you know we can't bomb on those weapons now right because we

00:19:58.040 haven't gotten the Americans out so this is a hostage situation already because the fact that

00:20:05.540 Americans are there and the Taliban can control whether they get out that means already they're 0.99

00:20:11.580 controlling what we can and cannot bomb right now because we can't bomb the weapons we left behind

00:20:18.100 too dangerous they've got our hostages so it's already a hostage problem so um remember the other

00:20:27.440 day I uh maybe even yesterday I was saying that we can't yet know enough to know how bad the decision

00:20:34.180 was on the surface I'm completely with you on the surface it looks like the biggest botched thing of

00:20:43.020 all botched things would we can all agree on that right I will stipulate that based on what we know so

00:20:49.220 far it looks like the worst mistake ever made in the military industrial or no the military political

00:20:56.340 world I guess we could agree on that but there's a dog not barking here how do you explain that a hundred percent

00:21:07.020 of the people who were not in charge knew exactly the right thing to do but a hundred percent of the people

00:21:13.360 who were in charge didn't how do you explain that seriously how do you explain that that's that's not a point

00:21:20.940 it's an actual question of curiosity every one of us who were not there knew what to do but everyone

00:21:27.940 who was there didn't and knowing what was right to do was kind of easy wasn't it you know uh blow up

00:21:36.480 your own weapons get the get the americans out first kind of easy right wouldn't you say there were

00:21:44.720 easy easy decisions that anybody could have made right almost guarantees that there's something we

00:21:52.620 don't know how many of you would agree with the statement that it's more likely that there's

00:21:59.540 something big we don't know about versus it was exactly as incompetent as it looks which one do you

00:22:06.900 think it was there's something we don't know something big or that it was exactly as incompetent as it

00:22:13.680 looks and the only people who didn't know how to do it right were the people in charge and everybody

00:22:19.720 else in the world knew how to do it right which is more likely i would say that the we don't know

00:22:26.240 what happened there's more to the story is maybe five to one more likely that would be my guess just

00:22:35.640 based on living in the world you know you live in the world long enough you start to develop these

00:22:40.280 these rules of thumb in your head they're not accurate necessarily they're just you know

00:22:45.040 patterns and expression and impressions you picked up but mine is there's a five to one chance that

00:22:51.860 the explanation is there's something we don't know about some kind of deal we made some kind of risk we

00:22:58.440 want to take some kind of leverage somebody had on somebody some kind of threat i don't know

00:23:04.120 something um so here's a here's another question that we all love uh talking about is why is it that

00:23:16.380 uh trump well why do you think that trump might have done a better or worse job do you think that

00:23:23.760 the democrats are having any trump uh missing trump problem a little bit let me tell you something

00:23:31.460 that trump would do in this situation that biden has not okay and i think it's easy to imagine

00:23:38.960 this now first of all trump says he wouldn't have been in this situation and and maybe not because

00:23:45.820 whatever it was that caused biden to be in this situation it probably means somebody made a cowardly

00:23:51.860 decision or they made a hard decision and didn't explain it to us or something i feel like trump

00:23:58.600 wouldn't have done that i think trump would have made a hard decision and just told us i think he

00:24:04.060 would just would have told us yeah i mean i had to make this hard decision it's really going to be

00:24:08.720 bad for this one thing but you know you got to make a decision this is what i decided but here's the

00:24:13.320 other thing that i think trump would do um that biden so far is not doing and i think it would go

00:24:20.240 like this if trump found himself in this situation and we don't know that he would of having all these

00:24:24.980 americans there and having to trust the taliban to let them out here's what trump would probably say 1.00

00:24:30.780 to the taliban taliban you're getting everything you want we only want one thing if you don't give us

00:24:39.560 that one thing which is allow the americans out we'll take everything you have everything we will 0.99

00:24:47.500 come back every five minutes and just mow the lawn we will wait till you assemble in groups larger than 0.99

00:24:54.300 five and drop a fucking bomb in the middle of it every time as long as it takes forever if you give 0.99

00:25:01.920 us any trouble with getting the hostages out now let me tell you that i will do it for fun i'll enjoy 1.00

00:25:09.340 it i will wipe out every freaking taliban anybody with a gun is going to be dead i will what i will i 0.99

00:25:17.440 degrade your entire country we'll leave nothing there unless you let the americans out now we 1.00

00:25:25.440 believe the taliban respond to threats because they're rational people and they have no benefit 1.00

00:25:30.000 whatsoever of messing with the americans except you know whatever psychological weird evil benefits

00:25:37.220 they get i feel as though this is one of those situations where trump was the perfect president

00:25:44.060 if he had been president now to be fair i've said many times that it's it's not really about having a

00:25:51.680 good or bad president it's usually about a fit like who's who's the right fit and trump was the right fit

00:25:58.960 for this he was really the right fit for this exactly exactly the right president for this he just wasn't

00:26:06.580 president i would say that trump was maybe not the right president for the pandemic wouldn't you say

00:26:14.260 i would say if there was one issue really that stands above all the rest um it would be trusting

00:26:21.620 trump with uh health you know health decisions right because one of the things that trump created for

00:26:28.720 himself is you know wild hyperbole which works you know politically it works really well and had a lot

00:26:36.380 of benefits but you don't want to be the wild hyperbole person when it's a health scare it's just the

00:26:42.880 wrong fit it has nothing to do with trump's talent has nothing to do with you know his brains or his

00:26:49.360 motivation his intentions or anything else just some things fit better than other things and i'd sure

00:26:55.240 like to have a president trump while we're trying to get americans out of afghanistan to me that's no

00:27:00.300 contest i i feel as if even the democrats would agree with the statement that trump could get the

00:27:07.020 americans out better because he's scarier um let's see what else we got here um what is the difference 0.61

00:27:18.000 between uh biden withdrawing from afghanistan and the california governor's recall election

00:27:25.680 well um one difference is that the people who will be left in afghanistan will still have power

00:27:34.260 and electricity and their country is mostly not on fire mostly not on fire whereas the californians

00:27:40.720 after newsom leaves we won't have enough power or or water uh and uh the sky is full of smoke because

00:27:48.620 our state is on fire so the newsom recall is a little bit worse in terms of what gets left behind

00:27:55.660 all right i'm kidding afghanistan's worse but you have to you have to ask yourself about uh how bad 0.80

00:28:04.480 is california that you can even make a reasonable comparison to afghanistan and people will listen

00:28:11.100 well today i did a robots read news comic if you're not following those i just tweeted one out and posted

00:28:18.080 it on locals so i only do that comic because i can post it on locals and not get in trouble

00:28:23.380 but sometimes they're ones i release into the wild as well if they don't look too bad um and uh

00:28:31.940 so uh the uh robot read news comics you want to read those on the afghanistan topic you don't want

00:28:42.480 to miss that um now let's talk about uh how larry elder should not be advertising pain relief when running

00:28:53.260 for governor yeah he's on he's on one of those pain relief commercials so every day that goes by

00:29:00.880 that we don't hear a genuine uh larry elder scandal i think his odds of becoming governor just go up

00:29:09.200 almost every day because california itself is looking worse every day um i've got my

00:29:16.040 blinds down but you want to see a picture of what it looks like outside uh you're going to hear the

00:29:23.240 sound of my blinds going up and it's and i'm going to get over lit in here but i'll i'll do this just so

00:29:29.260 i can show you what it looks like oh i just realized i don't know if i can change the

00:29:35.320 oh i don't think i can do this on locals i'll turn the screen around you see all right um

00:29:43.460 on youtube let's see i think i can turn you around i'll turn the screen around

00:29:49.920 so look out my window there and then on locals i'll just turn the screen around so you can see

00:29:55.220 so you're looking out my window this looks like fog but isn't that that's the actual air quality

00:30:04.380 so that's the smoke and uh christina got trapped out of town in a small aircraft she was doing a

00:30:12.760 little ferrying a an aircraft um for to let the hangar and she can't get back in town because she 1.00

00:30:20.180 can't fly a small aircraft in the smoke so she's she's gonna have to get back on a commercial flight 1.00

00:30:25.580 i guess so that's what california looks like now tell me if you have to put your mask on to go to

00:30:34.580 the gym and and you're and you can't go outside and take a walk i can't take a walk just think about

00:30:46.780 that just just try to imagine that you're in in your state whatever state you're in i can't take

00:30:53.820 a walk it's too dangerous i can't go outside i mean i could walk to my car but i can't i literally

00:31:02.300 can't go for a walk it's just you know i've got asthma too so it's a little worse so how does a

00:31:08.420 governor get re-elected when the residents of the state can't take a walk i mean think about that

00:31:15.840 i feel as if larry elder just has to show up and he's going to be the next governor you just

00:31:22.000 i just don't know how you can you can elect the guy who manages the state so poorly you can't go

00:31:28.680 outside i mean that's crazy who has ever done worse than that ever has anybody ever done worse than

00:31:35.700 that i don't know uh yeah the blackouts and the brownouts um so far the the weather has been more

00:31:43.840 mild than i thought and i think so so here's the weird thing it might be that and this is true

00:31:50.480 by the way the only reason i still have electricity somebody tell me what's what's the only reason i

00:31:56.860 still have electricity does anybody know why it's because the forest fires are so bad they're blocking

00:32:04.760 the sun so i don't need ac i'm not making that up that's legitimately true the only reason i have

00:32:15.540 electricity is because the forest fires are blocking out the sun and so it's cooler i'm not making that

00:32:24.180 up that's real that's the only reason i have electricity do you think a governor can get

00:32:30.420 re-elected when the only reason you have electricity is that the forest fire blocked the sun temporarily

00:32:35.680 how does it get worse than that and and he's responsible for you know closing down our last

00:32:42.800 nuclear power plant the only hope we had of having enough electricity not good not good we're it looks

00:32:51.000 like we're going to run out of water in california and i don't know that there's a plan to get more

00:32:56.820 what exactly is our water making plan because the only way i can see that we could do it is to stick

00:33:04.580 a hose into the ocean build a nuclear reactor on the coast and start desalinating otherwise we all have

00:33:14.440 to move out of california i guess so um obviously i've come to the end of my content it seems like the

00:33:22.000 only the only the only things happening are afghanistan and climate change and i guess the

00:33:28.260 recall so is uh oh i i also saw um was it austin and maybe millie said this too that uh that nobody

00:33:39.140 saw any predictions that the taliban could take over in 11 days so that's sort of the defense

00:33:46.060 so the the defense is that we have you know 20 20 hindsight but if the military had known

00:33:54.480 that the taliban could take over so quickly they would have acted differently does that does that 1.00

00:34:01.940 work for you that's even an incompetent defense don't you expect that even if people do a bad job

00:34:09.500 they could probably put on a pretty good defense because you know they have time to think about it and

00:34:14.400 they get a lot of help and you know lawyers probably talk to them and say all right say this

00:34:18.400 it won't be true but it's going to sound pretty good it'll be good defense they can't even defend

00:34:23.760 themselves because here's the problem even if they had more time shouldn't they get the get the

00:34:31.160 americans out first the only question was what order do you do things and and his statement about

00:34:37.780 we didn't know that the taliban would fall so quickly doesn't address the main complaint the

00:34:43.980 main complaint is you did it in the wrong order and he doesn't even address it he acts like that was

00:34:49.800 the right order of things right so um i would say that i could not have less confidence in our military

00:35:01.520 leadership that i have right now and i would go further i would say that if biden doesn't fire

00:35:07.180 both milly and austin over this then maybe he doesn't need to be president anymore i'm not sure

00:35:16.080 if he is because we're still trying to figure out who's who's making the decisions by the way does

00:35:21.460 anybody know who's making all the decisions i have a theory on this but uh let's see your opinion

00:35:27.680 so tell me in the comments who do you think is the power behind the power i'm seeing susan rice

00:35:34.840 blackrock hillary clinton uh obama jill susan rice hillary xi xi ping uh valerie jarrett ron clane

00:35:49.380 okay here's the answer um and i would uh i would die on this hill meaning that i would bet basically

00:35:59.500 everything that i'm right you ready it's a it depends who cares the most per topic so here's who i think

00:36:09.300 is running the country everyone who cares the most and is also a democrat per topic so in other words

00:36:16.280 there is almost certainly a group of people who really really care about let's say what we do with

00:36:21.880 israel and i think they're in charge because there isn't enough pushback from anybody else

00:36:27.260 so i think any group of people who are sort of the the experts on that domain you know there'll be some

00:36:34.200 china experts some russia experts some nato experts some climate change experts etc i think that the

00:36:40.920 people who care the most and you know are most uh part of those uh advisory stuff i think they're

00:36:48.360 making the decisions because i think by the time it gets to the advisors the advisors say oh i don't

00:36:53.960 know well they're the experts and i think joe isn't capable enough to override an expert the way trump

00:37:00.400 would what what is the main thing you want from a president if i would if i were to say there's one

00:37:07.060 talent you want the most what would it be what talent would you most want from a president let's

00:37:14.900 say they're all good at communicating and the basics right so let's say everybody by the time you become

00:37:19.900 president you've got all the basics but what what one single talent there you go it's funny i watch the

00:37:28.840 difference in the comments between the people on locals the people who subscribe to my content and the

00:37:33.780 people who may be more of a general audience on youtube and it's such a difference in the comments 0.96

00:37:38.860 and uh on locals people immediately went right to the right answer which is bullshit detection 0.83

00:37:45.180 the only thing you need your president to do is to know when the experts are wrong 0.54

00:37:51.100 that's it because otherwise the experts would just run everything you could just say all right just

00:37:57.860 tell me what to do about climate change right you're the experts all right i'll do that 0.91

00:38:01.280 right the only thing the president does is call bullshit on experts trump i would say did this

00:38:11.880 better than anybody's ever done it even with whatever mistakes you might say and there would be a few 0.98

00:38:17.540 i would say that trump is the best bullshit detector we've ever had as president i think now that doesn't 0.98

00:38:26.360 mean he also doesn't give the most bullshit because he does right and you know this the old saying it 0.99

00:38:32.460 takes one to know one well that is so true let me give you an example every now and then somebody will 0.98

00:38:40.120 make a movie that involves a tennis game and maybe a tennis professional if you are a tennis player and you

00:38:47.940 watch a movie where people are pretending to play tennis you can immediately spot that they don't know

00:38:54.180 how to play tennis right no matter how much uh acting lessons they took to you know hit correctly

00:39:00.560 anybody who's an experienced tennis player can say there's somebody who never hit a tennis ball until

00:39:05.640 they started practicing for this movie right and same in golf right yeah right same in golf if you're

00:39:13.140 a golf expert you can just look at somebody's swing and you know what's going on uh but trump

00:39:19.860 is literally the most prolific bullshitter of all time and uh yeah he was the most prolific

00:39:29.780 bullshitter and don't you think he can spot it i do i i think he's done it over and over again

00:39:36.260 now he used a little hyperbole when he talked about china and you know climate change being a hoax

00:39:42.320 but if you look at the context in which he meant that meaning that china wanted us to be in a bad

00:39:48.020 situation economically compared to them it was a hoax now that doesn't mean that climate change isn't

00:39:56.100 real i'm not saying that um i'm saying that he correctly called out that there was a whole bunch 0.98

00:40:01.900 of bullshit baked in with the real stuff if there's any real stuff right he he spotted the bullshit part 0.93

00:40:08.100 of it and i think he got that completely right um now the i guess the other thing uh the president 0.99

00:40:18.420 needs to do is take the hard choices and take the heat because sometimes it's not so much about the

00:40:23.940 experts it's priorities and when it's just priorities then you need a president who can take any amount of

00:40:30.180 heat who could do that better than trump nobody ever ever no president could take more heat

00:40:39.380 for a decision that just needed to be done than president than trump and imagine a second term trump

00:40:46.180 oh my god a second term trump could make the hardest decisions because he could and he would and i think he

00:40:54.740 would play that you play the long the long game i think he would i think trump would play the long

00:40:59.780 game which is to make the hard decision withdrawing from afghanistan is one of those and uh just you

00:41:08.260 know just get it done and i think history would be kind to him if he did all right uh no more old

00:41:14.260 presidents somebody saying i agree with you i mean i said it before trump ran the first time i said we

00:41:20.020 shouldn't have 70 plus year old presidents i think it's too old on the other hand what is the biggest

00:41:28.180 advantage of an old president you know what you're getting that's the big advantage you know what you're

00:41:34.980 getting um and i think with trump we got exactly what we thought we would get you know the some of the

00:41:42.420 details were different but not really i mean basically you got exactly what you you expected he he was trumped

00:41:49.220 from day one he was never on trump biden too didn't you know what you were getting with biden of course

00:41:56.980 you did you got exactly what you voted for now people chose that consciously i hope they like their

00:42:02.660 choice it doesn't look so good this week but uh the presidents need to be post sexual 0.99

00:42:11.380 that's not a bad that's not a bad that's not a bad concept yeah if you get your presidents old enough

00:42:19.380 so that they've they've crossed over their their sex life you have one less thing to be distracted

00:42:25.220 you know with a la clinton for example um

00:42:31.700 yeah once you cross 80 the the statistics look bad i i would allow that young 70s isn't like it used to be

00:42:38.420 so um i'm being asked for a lesson a micro lesson on uh self-hypnosis for stress relief

00:42:49.380 um i don't know that that would be a micro lesson so much as i should hypnotize you so i should do a

00:42:56.180 video in which i just hypnotize you to sleep better which i could do i'm working on one now um about how

00:43:02.500 how to create assets out of nothing you know basically psychological assets and uh coming

00:43:08.180 along on that uh i've got a problem right now that there's some construction in my house so almost as

00:43:13.380 soon as i'm done with the live streams there's going to be construction noise all day so it's tough to

00:43:18.100 make videos and by the way if you're on locals and you're wondering why i slowed down on the videos

00:43:22.660 that's why i can't do them during the day like i used to but that won't last forever so there'll be

00:43:27.460 more of them and that is what i call coffee with scott adams that's right you have come to the end of

00:43:36.340 another fantastic segment the kind of entertainment that really you can't you can't buy because i don't

00:43:45.380 sell it you might have to watch some advertisements but okay you could subscribe to it so you can buy it

00:43:50.980 but forget about that and here's how i tell you you should watch this show i think that different

00:43:59.140 forms of oh by the way before i go i'm going to give you a recommendation of some entertainment

00:44:05.300 media entertainment that's amazing um

00:44:10.820 uh the way you should watch this live stream is either by exercising while you're doing it you

00:44:15.940 know taking a walk doing something like that or housework you know washing the dishes putting

00:44:20.900 your your headphones uh or just having it on as sort of a a friend who's talking to you while

00:44:27.620 you're getting ready for your day or commuting that sort of thing so the way to listen to this is not

00:44:32.420 so much that you're picking up the news but you're having a conversation with a friend who talks too much

00:44:38.580 thinks he knows everything that's me i'm your invisible friend how many of you who got lonely

00:44:44.660 during the pandemic did anybody get lonely during the pandemic yeah i just want to see in your comments

00:44:52.260 how many were lonely um a lot of no's because your families were close yeah but then there were a lot of

00:44:59.300 people especially single people it was just devastating but one of the ways to listen to this is as your uh

00:45:07.380 your imaginary friend who's not really imaginary uh and i'm just there hanging out with you a little bit

00:45:13.460 talking about what's new all right here's your recommendation have you all seen i know you have

00:45:19.940 there's a a series called ted laz lazio ted lazlo ted lazlo on i think it's only apple tv and so it's a

00:45:30.580 you have to buy it and i just started watching it and you know i've told you that there's no such good as

00:45:36.100 there's there's no good tv shows anymore and there are no good movies they don't they don't match our

00:45:41.300 sense of uh i don't know our uh patience doesn't work anymore and the content is terrible it's just

00:45:49.140 terrible and it makes you feel bad and it's cringy and all that it's woke and then there's the show uh

00:45:58.420 ted lazlo now i i resisted watching it because the the previews are terrible have you seen the previews

00:46:06.980 the previews don't make that look good but i found out there's a reason you can't make a preview of that

00:46:14.580 show and here's why this show is what is a cumulative masterpiece every moment of the show

00:46:23.300 is a little um muted a little reduced in let's say energy and so if you watch a like a preview

00:46:33.220 you're going to get one of these low energy just somebody's talking to somebody and you're like i'm

00:46:38.580 not sure why i watch that but that low energy stuff accumulates over the course of an episode and then

00:46:45.700 also over the course of the arc of the entire show and it is a freaking masterpiece it's it's very

00:46:54.900 nearly the best thing i've ever seen on television and i'll tell you what he does right um so um

00:47:02.980 who is it sudeikis who's the executive producer and the star uh i'll just give you the setup without

00:47:08.660 being a spoiler he plays an optimistic american who has chosen to be a soccer coach in a british

00:47:16.420 premier league and he's never played soccer and he doesn't even know the rules now what's the show

00:47:23.540 about if it's about an american who is a coach in a different uh in a different level in a different

00:47:30.100 sport what's it about persuasion it's a whole show about persuasion because this this person he has no

00:47:40.740 skills he has no experience the only thing he knows is how to motivate people and you watch him as he

00:47:48.180 uses one persuasion trick after another usually in a more you know dramatic sense so they're they're

00:47:53.940 exaggerated a little bit but he uses one one trick after another and you watch him build build a thing

00:48:01.140 over the course of the shows that's amazing it's really amazing it's the best uh ted lasso is it laszlo

00:48:10.660 or lasso right so it's ted lasso and it's uh looks terrible in the previews so let me say this as clearly as

00:48:18.820 possible don't look at the previews don't look at them it's not good the previews cannot capture

00:48:28.260 the genius that went into this freaking thing it's pure genius from beginning to end the first episode

00:48:35.540 you might not feel it at around the third episode you're going to say to yourself what the hell am i

00:48:42.340 watching this is so good it's got layers it's like layers on layers on layers um one of the things they

00:48:51.060 do is what uh i call the beatles technique i've been studying the beatles for i don't know a year now

00:48:57.460 to find out what they did right not just musically but like what was in their systems or techniques

00:49:03.940 it turns out that both uh mccartney and lennon were systems people you know that they they would

00:49:10.420 develop a system that would get them there not just a goal of having a good good song and one of

00:49:16.180 the systems was they would take anything that sounded good and put it in the same song even if it didn't

00:49:20.660 make sense they'd say well this sounds good this is this bell ringing ding dong ba-dong ba-dong

00:49:26.820 hey i like the way that bell sounds and then you've got a guitar lick over here 0.97

00:49:32.660 you know what would sound good we'll take that bell that i like individually we'll put it with that

00:49:37.620 guitar lick that i like individually and we'll have a bell and a guitar and we'll call it a song

00:49:43.220 and we'll add some random lyrics that don't really have anything to do with anything

00:49:47.300 that's how the the beatles made their songs they took individual things that felt good and put them

00:49:52.820 together i don't know if anybody does that um but but uh anyway this this show does that because one of

00:50:02.580 the things it takes is uh bits from the best thing you've ever watched how many of you like shows

00:50:09.700 where the underdog wins a sporting competition right don't you like anything where the big underdog wins a

00:50:19.780 sporting competition or it could be a spelling bee by any competition right every movie that has that

00:50:25.860 if they execute it well i like it so they throw that in there that's in ted lasso then you've got a fish

00:50:31.940 out of water that's sort of the basis for most humorous stuff that that's there you've got persuasion

00:50:39.220 lessons which is fun that's there you've got great dialogue you've got the most interesting character that's there

00:50:45.860 the casting is freaking genius where do you see the casting you need an academy award for just casting 0.61

00:50:54.180 that stupid thing but every part of this is genius and the parts aren't supposed to go together 0.98

00:51:01.540 they put them together anyway they just said take everything that's great and put it in the show 0.99

00:51:06.980 what's the thing i hate worse about every any show they make you feel bad in order to make you feel

00:51:13.540 good right they have to they have to take the the viewer down into depression so that when things

00:51:18.900 go well you're like oh finally i feel good now but this show makes you feel good almost the whole way

00:51:25.540 except he's got some marital problems that are kind of necessary to the to the plot but otherwise you're

00:51:31.540 just sort of happy the whole time it's amazing anyway watch that show you won't you won't be disappointed

00:51:37.540 and i will talk to you tomorrow

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 21, 2021

Episode 1475 Scott Adams： Fresh Coffee and Even Fresher News. Let's Criticize the Dopes in Charge.

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