Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1476 Scott Adams： I Tell You How to Fix Our Biggest Problems While Drinking Coffee

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Coffee with Scott Adams, possibly the highlight of

00:00:07.400 your entire life.

00:00:08.820 Don't know yet.

00:00:09.760 I mean, you can't rule it out.

00:00:10.960 It might go well.

00:00:13.560 But suppose, hypothetically, you wanted to take this from an incredible situation to

00:00:21.040 even better?

00:00:22.500 Even better?

00:00:23.480 What would you do?

00:00:24.580 Well, you'd probably find a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or a chalice or a canteen

00:00:28.180 jug of glass, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:30.860 You'd probably fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:32.620 I like coffee.

00:00:34.400 And then maybe you'd join me for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine here today, the thing

00:00:40.040 that makes really everything better.

00:00:42.840 Everything better except the withdrawal from Afghanistan. 0.99

00:00:45.640 It's called the simultaneous sip, but it happens now.

00:00:47.740 Go.

00:00:51.280 Hello, Anne-Marie from Kuwait.

00:00:54.560 Good to have you.

00:00:55.480 You're probably drinking something in the afternoon.

00:00:58.900 All right.

00:01:00.720 Whatever happened to...

00:01:02.240 I saw this question on Twitter.

00:01:04.700 Whatever happened to the Matt Gaetz story?

00:01:09.600 What happened to it?

00:01:11.580 The longer you wait to find out if an allegation is true, the less likely it is.

00:01:19.740 So I'm going to test out a new rule for prediction.

00:01:22.940 Are you ready?

00:01:23.340 This is based on pattern recognition and is not supposed to be some kind of hard and fast

00:01:29.980 rule, but maybe a tendency.

00:01:32.820 And I guess this is as much of a question as it is an assertion.

00:01:38.020 So the question is this.

00:01:41.360 Is it true that when there's a big story and maybe somebody did something, that the longer

00:01:49.840 you wait and don't find out they did something, the less likely they did something?

00:01:54.680 Let me give you some examples.

00:01:56.700 It's been a long time since the Matt Gaetz story broke.

00:02:00.120 That he allegedly did something with women paying them or something.

00:02:06.540 So it almost doesn't matter what the details are at this point.

00:02:10.180 But it's been a long time, hasn't it?

00:02:13.400 Right?

00:02:14.500 Now every day that goes by, and I think I told you this from the start, every day that goes

00:02:18.820 by when Matt Gaetz is not, I don't know, indicted or charged with something, it's less

00:02:25.220 likely it's going to happen, I think.

00:02:27.440 Now that doesn't mean something couldn't happen.

00:02:30.280 You know, it's not ruled out.

00:02:31.680 But I think the likelihood goes down every day.

00:02:33.920 Let me give you some other examples.

00:02:35.840 Do you remember when Russian collusion was a thing?

00:02:41.340 Every day that went by, and we did not prove there was Russian collusion, made it less likely

00:02:47.320 than it was, right?

00:02:49.080 And then in the end, we didn't find any.

00:02:51.000 How about the capital insurrection and all of the planning from, I don't know, from the

00:02:58.240 White House, allegedly, or something about the insurrection?

00:03:02.160 And the longer they look for that insurrection, the less insurrection they can find.

00:03:08.240 But it's not just things that you might agree with.

00:03:11.540 What about the vaccination side effects?

00:03:16.000 The longer you wait to find out if the vaccination itself was more dangerous than the COVID, the

00:03:24.860 more likely it is that it's not dangerous.

00:03:27.440 Now that's pretty direct in the case of vaccinations, because the sooner after the vaccination is the

00:03:34.720 highest likelihood of problems, right?

00:03:37.580 That's why you have to wait 15 minutes after you get the shot.

00:03:40.340 Because the biggest risk is right then, the first 15 minutes, and then, you know, the

00:03:45.660 first few days.

00:03:47.200 But if you go three months, and you've got three months without a side effect, the odds of

00:03:53.480 ever seeing one start going down.

00:03:55.640 Not zero, not zero, but the odds go way down.

00:03:59.280 Here's another one.

00:04:00.040 How about Trump's legal troubles from all of his financial and or tax related stuff?

00:04:10.940 Where is Trump getting indicted, right?

00:04:14.440 And Trump himself, as opposed to the organization.

00:04:17.520 Well, the longer we wait, I feel like the less likely.

00:04:21.260 How about the Arizona audit?

00:04:23.460 I know you really want them to have the goods.

00:04:26.620 You really want...

00:04:27.640 I know, I know.

00:04:28.660 I know you want them to find something, because that would make you happy, many of you.

00:04:34.640 But the longer we go, the less likely.

00:04:38.240 Here's another one.

00:04:39.240 How about ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine?

00:04:43.740 The longer we go without proof that they work, the less likely that they work, right?

00:04:51.460 And I think it's been a while that we've been looking at both of those, the ivermectin

00:04:55.260 and the hydroxychloroquine.

00:04:56.460 If we had proof that they worked, I feel like that would be sticky, and that we'd know that

00:05:02.520 by now.

00:05:03.980 I'm not saying it doesn't work.

00:05:05.560 Remember, in each of these topics, you can't know for sure what the future is.

00:05:10.600 But I'm going to put this out there as a rule.

00:05:14.180 The proof is suppressed.

00:05:17.800 Yeah, so what I'm saying is somebody saying that the proof of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine

00:05:23.320 is being suppressed.

00:05:24.820 Let's take that as not a given, but let's take that as a high-awareness understanding of

00:05:33.600 the world.

00:05:34.060 Can we agree on that?

00:05:36.280 It's cynical, it's skeptical, but it's probably an accurate view of the world that information

00:05:43.920 gets suppressed by big entities for lots of reasons, right?

00:05:48.720 So we can all agree that that's a thing.

00:05:50.660 But would you agree with me that they can suppress it easily for one day, not too hard for two

00:05:59.500 days, but suppressing something like this for a year, when it's the biggest question going,

00:06:06.400 that's a lot harder, right?

00:06:08.440 So every day that goes by that the suppression is keeping you from knowing about these, I

00:06:15.520 think you have to start biasing your prediction toward there's nothing there.

00:06:21.740 It doesn't mean there's nothing there.

00:06:23.840 I'm saying that your prediction should start biasing in that direction.

00:06:28.080 So just keep an eye on that and tell me how often it is wrong, okay?

00:06:33.540 It'll be wrong sometimes.

00:06:34.760 It's not one of those rules that's hard and fast, but I'll bet you, I'll bet you if you

00:06:40.300 use this for your predictions, that you would be right 80, 90% of the time, something like

00:06:46.600 that.

00:06:47.160 So that's just speculation.

00:06:48.700 Keep an eye on it and see if that predicts.

00:06:51.260 I think it does.

00:06:52.800 All right.

00:06:55.760 Why is it we're in this weird situation in which, I'm lazy, somebody says, because I didn't

00:07:03.720 do my own research.

00:07:04.760 So why is it that all the smart people are telling us two things?

00:07:16.540 So let's say CNN, MSNBC, they're the smart people, right?

00:07:20.240 So all the smart people are telling us two things.

00:07:23.700 Number one, use science and use data to make decisions.

00:07:30.920 Would you agree?

00:07:31.700 All the smart people say that.

00:07:33.440 Use science and accurate data to make decisions.

00:07:37.600 So far, so good.

00:07:39.880 And then how do they help us make decisions?

00:07:43.160 By showing us anecdotal reports.

00:07:45.480 So on one hand, they're saying, make your decisions based on the science and the data.

00:07:51.420 But then they're spending all their time producing anecdotal stories of this one guy who died because

00:07:57.680 he didn't get the vaccination.

00:07:59.320 So it's sort of a mixed message, isn't it?

00:08:04.960 It's like you should use data in science, but we know that it doesn't work.

00:08:08.880 It's not going to convince anybody.

00:08:10.700 So we better try to convince you with our anecdotal stuff, which is the opposite of science.

00:08:15.560 So if science is so good, why can't you use it?

00:08:21.280 It's a perfectly good question, right?

00:08:23.360 If science is so good and we should make our decisions based on science, why can't you just tell me the science?

00:08:30.080 Why do you have to give me an anecdote and persuade me by scaring me with this one story of this one guy who did something?

00:08:36.420 If the science is so good, well, it's because science doesn't work, right?

00:08:42.120 It doesn't work to persuade.

00:08:44.580 I mean, it can get you just so far.

00:08:46.100 It gets about half the public.

00:08:47.280 But then the rest just say, ah, I don't believe it for one reason or another.

00:08:51.160 So the only way to sell science is by denying science, in a sense.

00:08:57.120 Now, I would argue it's actually scientific to understand that people are not rational beings

00:09:01.840 and you can't convince them with science.

00:09:04.160 So I would say that's also a scientific view.

00:09:07.180 But it just feels kind of crazy that we're mixing these two things at the same time.

00:09:11.440 Anecdote?

00:09:12.120 Sure.

00:09:13.980 All right.

00:09:15.920 I would like to assign blame to people who have destroyed the world.

00:09:21.700 Who are these people?

00:09:23.660 Well, let me give you some examples of how the world is being destroyed and you tell me who's responsible.

00:09:31.320 We have a major drought in the West.

00:09:36.920 So California is in major drought.

00:09:38.960 Much of the West is in a big drought.

00:09:42.220 And people say climate change is a big component of that.

00:09:46.740 Now, there's some skepticism of that.

00:09:49.280 Of course, there always is.

00:09:50.820 But that's sort of a general thing you're seeing in the air that climate change is to blame.

00:09:55.700 Now, who's to blame for that?

00:09:56.800 Hold on to that thought.

00:09:58.060 Don't answer it yet.

00:09:58.800 Here in California, we also have very little power.

00:10:04.960 So we don't have enough electricity.

00:10:07.980 Who's to blame for that?

00:10:09.620 Hold your thought.

00:10:11.020 Don't answer it yet.

00:10:12.360 So who's to blame for climate change, drought, lack of electricity?

00:10:17.560 These are our big problems coming on.

00:10:19.240 Who's to blame for climate change itself?

00:10:21.040 I mean, the larger question.

00:10:22.020 How about the risk of losing in space?

00:10:28.360 So right now, Russia and China look like they're going to be pretty aggressive in controlling space militarily.

00:10:35.640 How are we going to do in space militarily?

00:10:39.460 Well, we've got a problem because we don't have a good nuclear industry, right?

00:10:45.100 If we had a more robust commercial nuclear industry, we'd be in good shape for going to space because you need all that skill.

00:10:52.540 So what would be a solution to running out of water?

00:10:59.960 Well, I can only think of one other than changing climate change totally, which could take decades.

00:11:06.080 The only way I think you can get there is using nuclear power and desalinization.

00:11:11.540 But who has stopped nuclear power from being a big deal already?

00:11:20.000 It's the green people, right? 1.00

00:11:22.620 The green people stopped nuclear energy using persuasion as opposed to science.

00:11:28.980 And now we don't have a robust nuclear industry that could possibly save us by building some quick nuclear plants, maybe Gen 4 if we're almost there.

00:11:40.240 And giving us some water.

00:11:43.480 What about our lack of electricity?

00:11:46.160 Same problem.

00:11:47.620 No nuclear power.

00:11:49.160 If we had nuclear power in California, or more of it, we would have plenty of power.

00:11:54.680 But who stopped it?

00:11:55.660 The green people, right? 0.97

00:11:57.880 So the green people are responsible for me not having water. 1.00

00:12:01.720 The green people are responsible for me not having electricity. 1.00

00:12:04.520 But, you say, at least they stopped climate change.

00:12:11.040 No.

00:12:11.920 No.

00:12:12.240 If they want to stop climate change, you need more nuclear power.

00:12:15.800 So they made nuclear power worse.

00:12:18.400 I'm sorry.

00:12:18.960 They made...

00:12:19.760 So the green people made climate change happen.

00:12:22.760 Because the only solution is nuclear power, and they're making it hard.

00:12:25.680 So they're climate change, water problems, electricity problems, and we won't be able to militarily control space.

00:12:35.620 And so we're basically doomed in the long run.

00:12:39.240 It's the same frickin' people. 0.96

00:12:41.800 The green people have destroyed America, apparently. 1.00

00:12:47.520 And if you look at our gas prices, who's to blame for that?

00:12:50.860 It seems like it's all coming down to the same place.

00:12:55.880 Now, let's say somebody says, you know, the war in Afghanistan is made worse by climate change, which they do.

00:13:01.880 Again, where's my nuclear energy to get me out of the climate change problem?

00:13:07.460 It all comes back to the green people. 0.99

00:13:09.740 It's like the green woke people destroyed the planet. 1.00

00:13:12.480 It just took a while.

00:13:13.800 You know, it's working through the system.

00:13:15.020 So I assign blame to the green people. 1.00

00:13:24.940 David Reboy has a tweet in which he's tweeted in an article, I think it was in Reuters or something.

00:13:32.020 Or NPR.

00:13:33.020 I forget which one.

00:13:34.380 But there's a quote in there from somebody who knows something about Afghanistan.

00:13:37.640 It said, years ago, a U.S. general told us that not only that they couldn't make many of the Afghan officers, no, not only couldn't many of the Afghan officers read or write, but they couldn't count.

00:13:54.060 The Afghan officers that we trained to be the officers in the military, they couldn't read and write. 1.00

00:14:00.760 And many of them couldn't count.

00:14:07.560 So I wonder what happened.

00:14:09.720 I wonder how they lost so fast.

00:14:12.500 Oh, my God.

00:14:14.600 So apparently we just were trying to train the dregs. 0.99

00:14:18.120 And the Taliban must have been doing a better job of recruiting. 0.94

00:14:21.500 Looks like they got more talent.

00:14:23.320 That's part of it.

00:14:24.340 Well, here's my current updated take on Afghanistan and the withdrawal.

00:14:32.300 I started with a contrarian take, which said that we don't know how much of a mistake it is yet.

00:14:39.500 Meaning that there's some information we don't have, and we know we don't have it.

00:14:43.780 And it could be important.

00:14:45.320 And the information is this.

00:14:47.400 Why is it that everybody who's not in Afghanistan knew what to do?

00:14:52.120 You know, get the Americans out, then, you know, get the military out, bomb the bases. 0.87

00:14:58.680 You know, everybody knew it.

00:15:00.320 The only people who didn't know that, that very obvious thing, were the people in charge of it.

00:15:05.580 Is that possible?

00:15:07.720 It's not.

00:15:08.820 Let me just say this.

00:15:10.040 That's a rhetorical question.

00:15:11.160 It's not possible.

00:15:12.560 There's something we don't know about how the decisions went down.

00:15:17.040 Something big.

00:15:17.820 Because I'm not buying that every single person at any level of education, at any level of IQ,

00:15:26.800 every one of us knew the right way to get out of Afghanistan.

00:15:31.000 But the people who do it for a living didn't.

00:15:34.200 It's just not working for me, right?

00:15:36.120 We're going to find out something.

00:15:37.400 But here's what we can say.

00:15:40.300 It looks like the Taliban is not going to let all the Americans out. 0.79

00:15:43.540 So that's what's happening on the ground, according to the reporting.

00:15:47.760 Now, if the Taliban had been really smart and maybe better organized, they would have just said,

00:15:54.960 OK, get out of here.

00:15:56.000 The best thing we can do for ourselves is to let everybody out so we can totally control the country.

00:16:01.800 No Americans coming back. 1.00

00:16:03.560 But that's not happening.

00:16:05.100 Which probably means the Taliban leadership can't completely control all the individual checkpoints and stuff.

00:16:11.360 Don't have that kind of command and control.

00:16:15.000 But if we know the Americans can't get out, then it's a botched operation and there's no explanation that's going to make me happy.

00:16:23.500 I don't think so.

00:16:24.320 I mean, I could be surprised.

00:16:25.940 Here's something that, whoa, I didn't know that.

00:16:27.980 Or maybe there was some other big thing we traded for it.

00:16:30.760 Who knows?

00:16:31.680 There could be some kind of secret deal that we don't know about.

00:16:34.400 But at this point, it looks like the biggest botched operation in the history of operations.

00:16:41.440 So the evolution that I'm giving you here is I started with, hey, it's fog of war.

00:16:48.740 Let's make sure we really know what's going on here.

00:16:51.760 And now enough time has gone by that I can say, OK, if it's true for sure, and it looks at it that way,

00:16:58.020 it looks to be true for sure that the Americans aren't going to get out.

00:17:02.000 Or a lot of them.

00:17:02.680 So at this point, we can say it's botched.

00:17:05.740 I mean, that clears it up, right, in a bad way.

00:17:11.700 Here's what Biden's problem is.

00:17:14.900 So the biggest problem with Biden is his age and the presumption of some dementia.

00:17:21.960 Now, if you have that and you also have the biggest botched operation of all time,

00:17:26.680 like a historically big botch, one that both sides say was botched,

00:17:32.680 which is rare, it's pretty rare to get both sides to say anything was botched.

00:17:37.480 And that's a pretty big step.

00:17:39.160 And I don't know that Biden can possibly survive this.

00:17:43.360 I feel as though the Democrats are going to have to have a ritual sacrifice of Biden

00:17:48.140 to show that they can still govern.

00:17:50.260 They're getting close to that.

00:17:52.720 Let me say it again. 0.95

00:17:54.220 The Democratic Party is going to have to take Biden out and shoot him themselves, 0.86

00:17:59.780 you know, metaphorically, figuratively speaking. 0.87

00:18:03.560 The Democrats are going to have to take him out.

00:18:05.660 Because if they don't, it's going to be a big problem trying to get the next Democrat elected

00:18:12.360 because it's going to be, you know, it's going to be a bad look.

00:18:15.560 So if they get him out early, but the trouble is that would put Kamala Harris in charge

00:18:20.120 and she might be a bigger disaster. 0.93

00:18:22.300 So tell me this, in the comments, who is the top Democrat who would run for president

00:18:33.600 against, let's say, presuming Trump runs again?

00:18:36.140 Who would be the top Democrat? 0.68

00:18:38.620 I can't think of a single person who would be president material that we also know.

00:18:45.860 Buttigieg? 0.60

00:18:47.400 Yang?

00:18:47.760 I don't know.

00:18:49.140 I think Buttigieg and Yang didn't really find the center of their own party.

00:18:55.800 Cuomo?

00:18:56.560 Yeah, I know you're joking.

00:18:58.180 Mark Cuban?

00:18:58.880 Well, now there's an interesting thing.

00:19:02.000 Mark Cuban.

00:19:05.080 That's an interesting idea.

00:19:07.240 I can't think of anybody who would be better poised.

00:19:09.760 How much would you like to see Mark Cuban run as a Democrat

00:19:13.220 against Trump running for a second term?

00:19:15.620 Oh, my God.

00:19:18.500 Oh, my God.

00:19:19.920 Can you imagine that?

00:19:21.840 That would be so good.

00:19:24.300 That would be the best thing ever.

00:19:26.820 I would love that.

00:19:28.160 I mean, just from an entertainment point of view.

00:19:30.440 And I wouldn't mind who got elected, honestly.

00:19:33.560 If either Mark Cuban or Trump got elected, I'd be okay with that.

00:19:37.260 Because I think both of them are practical people, not political people.

00:19:42.720 I mean, you'd have to be political to be in the job.

00:19:44.700 But I think both of them would go for the solution that works.

00:19:48.560 I don't think either of them would take the solution that doesn't work

00:19:51.660 over the one that does for some political reason.

00:19:54.560 Now, they might disagree about what works.

00:19:56.760 But I think they're both free of politics in a weird way.

00:20:01.200 So that would be fun.

00:20:02.420 Well, yeah, The Rock.

00:20:09.280 No, I don't think The Rock is serious about politics.

00:20:15.060 Just made news, Scott and audience.

00:20:17.940 What just made news?

00:20:20.860 Is there some news about me?

00:20:22.140 I've been watching the hit pieces come out, trying to take out any prominent voice that

00:20:28.180 is associated with either side.

00:20:30.200 There was this giant hit piece on the Weinstein brothers, Brett and Eric, the long thread,

00:20:37.680 taking them down.

00:20:38.860 I think everybody's going to get their chance on the barrel.

00:20:41.480 And I must be next.

00:20:43.340 But seriously, who in the world are the Democrats going to run for president?

00:20:47.200 I feel like they've got nobody.

00:20:51.800 Oh, I just realized.

00:20:55.280 I just realized why my last two shows seemed short.

00:20:59.240 I've been printing on double-sided paper and I didn't realize it.

00:21:02.940 Okay.

00:21:08.140 So there's a new NBC poll.

00:21:11.320 And Biden's approval rating is dropping.

00:21:13.820 But it's at 49%.

00:21:15.580 And it was 53% in April.

00:21:17.460 This is according to NBC, who loves Biden.

00:21:20.080 But I feel like no president can be less than 49%.

00:21:23.660 Yes, all paper is double-sided.

00:21:28.420 What I meant was, I didn't realize I was printing double-sided.

00:21:31.880 So yesterday when I did my podcast, I was looking at my notes and I thought,

00:21:38.520 damn, I was sure I had four pages of notes.

00:21:41.300 But I only have two. 0.99

00:21:42.120 So if it seemed like a short show yesterday, now you know why. 0.99

00:21:47.420 I might be the dumbest guy in the world sometimes. 0.95

00:21:51.040 But I have one brilliant idea. 0.96

00:21:54.040 Would you like to hear it?

00:21:55.880 Would you like to hear my one brilliant idea?

00:21:59.080 So I pinned it to my feed today on Twitter.

00:22:03.340 Now, I think I've raised this before, but I just included a Tom Cotton reference in there,

00:22:10.540 so hopefully he'll see it.

00:22:11.660 Now, as you know, Congress is mostly useless, with the exception of a few senators.

00:22:18.980 Tom Cotton being one of the few people who works for the government who's actually trying to do something useful

00:22:24.060 and seems to be making some headway.

00:22:27.680 So I included him because he's a China hawk, as I am.

00:22:32.520 And here's my idea.

00:22:33.360 So we're reaching record levels of fentanyl coming into the country and record numbers of overdoses.

00:22:40.300 We know that China is the source of it.

00:22:42.360 It's going through the Mexican cartels and killing Americans by the tens of thousands.

00:22:48.160 And asking them to stop doesn't work.

00:22:51.980 Right?

00:22:52.860 So if you just say, hey, please don't send that fentanyl anymore, they'll say, sure, we'll take care of it.

00:22:57.840 And they just won't do anything.

00:22:58.660 And there's just nothing you can do about it.

00:23:01.560 So I'm suggesting that we depersonalize it and just completely remove China's leadership from the decision.

00:23:11.640 And you do it this way.

00:23:13.020 You just say, here's what we're going to do for every death recorded from overdose in this country.

00:23:19.240 And we don't even need to know if it was fentanyl.

00:23:21.380 We'll just, you know, let's just say every death recorded from an overdose.

00:23:24.840 And we will send back one Chinese citizen who's in college here. 1.00

00:23:30.760 There are over 300,000 Chinese citizens going to college in the United States.

00:23:35.780 We are training their elites.

00:23:38.680 Their elites want their kids in college in the United States.

00:23:41.880 That's why they're here.

00:23:43.180 And what we should say is, it's nothing personal.

00:23:46.160 We're just going to go in alphabetical order.

00:23:48.620 And this is a key, by the way.

00:23:50.000 This is a key to the persuasion.

00:23:52.020 Alphabetical order.

00:23:52.760 Because alphabetical order says it's not personal.

00:23:56.840 All we're doing is, for every death from overdose, we're going to pick the next person in alphabetical order and just send them home that day.

00:24:05.620 And here's the thing. 0.90

00:24:07.280 If you're an elite and your last name starts with the letter C and the A's go home, you're going to start lobbying your government pretty hard to cut the fuck out of the fentanyl. 0.98

00:24:19.560 Because you don't want your kid coming home. 0.98

00:24:21.700 And you're having lunch with President Xi.

00:24:23.680 Because you're an elite.

00:24:25.140 Right?

00:24:25.640 The elites know the other elites.

00:24:27.520 So only the elites can talk the other elites into anything.

00:24:30.620 You know, it's not going to be anybody else.

00:24:32.300 So you simply say, look, elites, it's nothing personal.

00:24:36.520 We don't have any way to solve this problem.

00:24:38.340 But we're going to let you solve it.

00:24:41.200 And the way we're going to let you solve it is we're going to send one of your students back for every fentanyl death.

00:24:46.580 And then you take care of it.

00:24:48.060 If you never take care of it, that's fine.

00:24:50.280 We don't care.

00:24:51.400 But take care of it.

00:24:53.020 Because we're going to get rid of all of them. 0.99

00:24:55.320 And how long would it take for China to say, OK, we like killing you with fentanyl, but not that much. 0.99

00:25:02.800 And we have other ways to attack America. 0.92

00:25:04.740 We don't need that way. 1.00

00:25:06.600 So Senator Tom Cotton, one of the maybe three senators who is not a complete worthless piece of shit. 0.99

00:25:14.120 And actually, I think, would be a fine president someday, possibly. 0.99

00:25:21.560 So Tom Cotton, if you'd like to maybe look into that to see if there's some way we can just make it unpersonal 0.99

00:25:27.940 and just put it on a formula and let China take care of their own fucking problem. 1.00

00:25:32.500 Because the problem is we made it our problem. 1.00

00:25:35.340 Here's a little persuasion tip for you.

00:25:38.000 When somebody makes something your problem, make it their problem and then walk away.

00:25:43.400 They'll solve it.

00:25:45.120 You've just got to make it their problem.

00:25:47.240 If you let them make it your problem, it's never going to get solved if you can't solve it.

00:25:51.900 Make it their problem.

00:25:56.780 All right.

00:25:58.680 Let's see what else we have on the back of my papers that I didn't look at yet.

00:26:05.220 A provocative question from Joel Pollack.

00:26:07.800 He asked this, and there's some writing in, well, so he asked this question.

00:26:16.760 With Trump promoting vaccinations, how many people died because he has denied a platform?

00:26:23.020 Good question, isn't it?

00:26:24.680 Could you calculate how many people Twitter killed?

00:26:28.080 By keeping Trump off of Twitter, who, at least in his rallies, says you should get the vaccination.

00:26:36.460 Now, I'm not going to enter the conversation of whether you should get the vaccination, right?

00:26:40.420 You can work that out on your own.

00:26:42.800 But, zero.

00:26:45.080 What would happen?

00:26:46.040 Let's just game it through.

00:26:47.680 Let's say that Trump was on Twitter and got to tweet maybe once a week.

00:26:53.260 Let's say, let's say, imagine once a week he tweeted, get your vaccinations.

00:26:59.340 Imagine.

00:27:00.340 How many people would be persuaded by Trump himself telling you to get vaccinated?

00:27:05.460 Well, he is the most persuasive person on the planet.

00:27:09.440 So, some, right?

00:27:11.760 Now, maybe some other people would say, no, I don't want the vaccination because Trump is saying we should get it.

00:27:17.140 I doubt it.

00:27:18.560 Because everybody's saying you should get it, right?

00:27:20.980 So, it's only the people saying you shouldn't get it that I think are going to be the problem.

00:27:26.800 And if you can get one more persuasive voice to say you should get it, would that save lives?

00:27:31.980 Now, I know those of you who think the vaccination is going to kill us all think that that would be a bad idea.

00:27:37.060 I get that.

00:27:38.100 But if you believe that the vaccination saves lives, and if you believe that Trump is persuasive, with his base anyway,

00:27:46.120 how many lives would he have saved if he had been on Twitter?

00:27:49.160 Now, maybe you could argue that he would have killed just as many people with some other thing he said, I suppose,

00:27:55.860 but you don't know what that is.

00:27:59.760 Somebody says 5% to 10% of his base.

00:28:02.000 Yeah, I think something like 5% to 10% of the base could be persuaded.

00:28:06.700 So, let's say 8 million people get persuaded who wouldn't have been persuaded.

00:28:12.480 That's probably at the high end.

00:28:13.920 How many of 8 million people would eventually die of COVID that wouldn't otherwise die?

00:28:21.520 I don't know.

00:28:21.980 It's an interesting question.

00:28:23.740 Likewise, how many lives did I save by being one of the early people to say closed travel from China?

00:28:30.440 I know we didn't close it completely.

00:28:32.480 But did it slow anything down?

00:28:34.340 Did it make a difference?

00:28:35.740 Were any lives saved?

00:28:37.140 I don't know.

00:28:37.640 Somebody asked the question about Brett Weinstein talking about ivermectin.

00:28:44.620 Did people talking about ivermectin being an alternative to vaccination, in a sense, not directly an alternative,

00:28:54.020 but in a sense people saying, well, as long as I have the ivermectin, I don't need the vaccination.

00:28:59.860 Is there anybody who died because they believed ivermectin was going to save them?

00:29:06.600 Well, we have one example.

00:29:09.000 Apparently, there was a conservative radio host named Valentine, I think, who just died tragically from COVID.

00:29:19.800 And he was an anti-vaxxer.

00:29:23.440 And he thought that the ivermectin would save him if he got the COVID.

00:29:27.480 And the ivermectin didn't save him, apparently.

00:29:30.180 Now, that's anecdotal, right?

00:29:31.720 So you don't make decisions based on individual stories.

00:29:34.820 But it does look like there is some kind of an effect where pundits are killing people.

00:29:46.380 It looks like it.

00:29:47.660 Now, of course, that assumption in that particular anecdote depends whether you think ivermectin works or not, right?

00:29:54.260 If you think it works, then he did the best he could and he died anyway.

00:29:57.520 But I did see a Jordan Peterson retweet of a study.

00:30:03.800 It's not a brand new study.

00:30:05.740 It's been out a few months.

00:30:06.500 And he was doubting ivermectin.

00:30:15.240 So basically, Jordan Peterson was retweeting a skeptical article that said,

00:30:21.280 it's possible that the ivermectin meta-analysis is skewed by one big fake study.

00:30:27.320 So when you look at the average of studies, there might be one real big one that's fake.

00:30:31.120 And that makes it look like it's working when it's not.

00:30:34.220 Now, I think Brett has addressed that.

00:30:37.300 I think he addressed it and said that even if you take that out, it still works or something.

00:30:42.040 But hypothetically, how many people did get killed by pundits?

00:30:48.860 Now, I don't know if the Weinsteins will...

00:30:52.260 Is it Weinstein or Weinstein?

00:30:53.540 I will never know...

00:30:57.140 I'll never be able to pronounce those names correctly.

00:30:59.720 And so I apologize.

00:31:01.220 I apologize publicly for that.

00:31:06.880 Yeah, it just makes me wonder how many people are being killed by bad punditry that's well-meaning.

00:31:13.100 I mean, all of it's well-meaning.

00:31:14.220 Nobody's trying to do anything.

00:31:15.920 All right, here's my next question.

00:31:17.800 This is another one of those dogs not barking.

00:31:20.060 So we think that the Taliban are not going to let all the Americans out. 0.64

00:31:24.540 That's the...

00:31:25.540 Anecdotally, it's looking like that.

00:31:28.700 Why are there so many Americans there? 0.84

00:31:31.300 Has anybody ever answered the biggest question of all?

00:31:34.800 Why are there many Americans living in rural Afghanistan?

00:31:40.960 And...

00:31:41.520 I mean, tens of thousands.

00:31:42.860 And if they are living there, why didn't they get out months ago when Trump said he's getting out of Afghanistan? 0.95

00:31:51.940 Did you really not have any warning?

00:31:55.820 Yeah, you're saying U.S. contractors.

00:31:58.700 But didn't they have warning?

00:32:01.040 As in months of warning to get out when it was still possible?

00:32:04.500 What in the world kept them there?

00:32:06.100 And if it was the United States keeping them there, as in saying, hey, please stay, don't leave until we tell you to,

00:32:13.660 and then they just pulled up and stranded them there, well, if that happened, we need to go back in.

00:32:19.540 Or something.

00:32:21.280 Now, presumably, I hear that the British paratroopers are going and collecting British citizens in Afghanistan and bringing them back. 0.89

00:32:29.960 So they're bringing a show of force to do that.

00:32:32.640 And the United States is not.

00:32:34.200 And I'm wondering if we could just pay some other country that's capable to save our people for us.

00:32:40.940 Now, maybe we should just do a GoFundMe and get some other country who has a military and actually knows how to use it and stuff to go in and get our people the expendables.

00:32:54.980 Doing humanitarian work.

00:32:57.020 Yeah.

00:32:57.740 I just don't understand Americans in Afghanistan.

00:33:01.620 It doesn't make any sense to me.

00:33:04.600 And if they're there, do they want to be there?

00:33:07.060 Did they choose to stay?

00:33:08.780 I just don't understand it.

00:33:13.860 Rome had to hire mercenaries and then fell.

00:33:16.660 Yeah.

00:33:19.780 Glenn Beck raised $22 million to help get people out.

00:33:22.940 Wow.

00:33:24.100 If that's true, that's pretty impressive.

00:33:26.260 But I don't know how you'd pay for it.

00:33:27.600 You'd probably have to bribe a lot of people.

00:33:28.960 Alice says, not one patient, not one patient who takes hydroxychloroquine for lupus has died.

00:33:41.740 That's not true.

00:33:42.860 If it is true, send me a link on Twitter.

00:33:47.920 But let me tell you, without even looking at the data.

00:33:50.640 So there's a claim in the comments here that nobody who's taking hydroxychloroquine for lupus has died of COVID.

00:33:57.940 But there's no chance that's true.

00:34:02.160 Is it?

00:34:02.940 Really?

00:34:03.560 There's no chance that's true.

00:34:05.880 I don't think that's true.

00:34:07.400 If there's a real study on that, I'd like to see it.

00:34:09.960 But no.

00:34:10.960 There's no chance that's true.

00:34:12.060 Yeah, and there's no way the data is being collected exactly.

00:34:23.920 All right.

00:34:25.360 So somebody here takes hydroxychloroquine.

00:34:27.960 Okay.

00:34:30.660 All right.

00:34:31.280 That's all I've got for now.

00:34:32.900 And I'm going to talk to you on another day.

00:34:37.080 I hope everything is wonderful for you today.

00:34:39.220 And it's all looking up.

00:34:43.500 And goodbye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 22, 2021

Episode 1476 Scott Adams： I Tell You How to Fix Our Biggest Problems While Drinking Coffee

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