Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 24, 2021


Episode 1478 Scott Adams： Vaccination Reasoning Viewed Through a Hypnosis Filter. And Coffee.


Episode Stats

Length

44 minutes

Words per Minute

152.65314

Word Count

6,844

Sentence Count

550

Misogynist Sentences

5

Hate Speech Sentences

19


Summary

In the latest episode of Coffee with Scott Adams, the host talks about the Portland Police Department s decision to let two opposing political groups fight it out on the streets of the city, and why it might be a good idea to let them fight. Plus, an update on the Biden administration's efforts to get the troops out of Afghanistan.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Bum, bum, bum, bum.
00:00:02.220 Good morning, everybody.
00:00:04.280 And it's time for another rousing edition of Coffee with Scott Adams,
00:00:09.600 the best thing that happens in the universe,
00:00:11.880 except for the sun itself.
00:00:14.460 And if you'd like to make it better,
00:00:16.420 well, all you need is a copper mug or a glass,
00:00:19.160 a tankard chalice or a stein, a canteen drug or a flask,
00:00:22.200 a vessel of any kind.
00:00:24.240 Fill it with your favorite liquid.
00:00:25.160 I like coffee.
00:00:26.760 Join me now for the unparalleled pleasure,
00:00:29.560 the dopamine hit of the day.
00:00:33.280 Somebody says, I simply tolerate Scott.
00:00:36.820 Well, thank you.
00:00:38.300 Some of you like the content,
00:00:40.660 but others are here for the tolerance,
00:00:43.100 and I appreciate it.
00:00:44.640 So join me now for the unparalleled pleasure,
00:00:46.580 the dopamine hit of the day,
00:00:47.520 the thing that makes everything better.
00:00:48.640 It's called the simultaneous sip.
00:00:50.780 Go.
00:00:50.980 Go.
00:00:54.800 Ah.
00:00:56.320 Oh, good.
00:00:58.420 Yeah, that's good stuff.
00:00:59.560 Well, in Portland,
00:01:03.840 the people in charge have decided that instead of using the police,
00:01:08.960 which, as you know, are overfunded in Portland,
00:01:12.280 according to Portland,
00:01:13.980 instead of using their limited police
00:01:15.880 to break up violence between opposing political groups in the city,
00:01:20.900 they decided to stand back and let them fight.
00:01:23.620 Because they were just using things like sprays and clubs and stuff like that.
00:01:30.640 It wasn't especially dangerous until the gunfire.
00:01:33.840 I guess the police got involved when there were shots fired.
00:01:37.220 But until then, they actually just stood back and observed,
00:01:40.820 and they let the two opposing sides fight it out.
00:01:43.960 To which I say, thank you.
00:01:46.820 I have never agreed with Mayor Wheeler more than right this moment.
00:01:53.820 They're letting them fight it out.
00:01:55.440 I don't know what could end it faster.
00:02:00.720 Right?
00:02:01.780 Because it seems to me that if you try to break it up
00:02:04.240 and you keep them from hurting each other too much
00:02:07.080 or too many people getting hurt,
00:02:08.860 they'll just come back.
00:02:10.600 But what happens if you let them fight it out a few times?
00:02:13.440 I think fewer people show up next time.
00:02:18.140 You know, if you've got your head broken,
00:02:20.660 probably you don't go back.
00:02:22.540 I don't know.
00:02:23.620 So we'll try that.
00:02:25.040 And I like it in the A-B testing sense of things.
00:02:28.620 So while common sense tells you,
00:02:30.300 hey, put those police in there
00:02:31.860 and stop that fighting on your streets,
00:02:34.700 well, let's try this.
00:02:36.280 It could work.
00:02:37.900 I'm not saying it will.
00:02:39.720 I don't think you can quite predict
00:02:41.540 that it'll come to a good end if you let them fight.
00:02:45.080 But we haven't tried it.
00:02:47.260 Let's give it a try.
00:02:49.040 If Portland wants to be the test case for a let them fight,
00:02:53.960 I say put some bleachers in there and sell tickets
00:02:56.220 and let's go nuts.
00:02:58.960 Well, I think I predicted to you
00:03:01.880 that Afghanistan has some surprises coming.
00:03:05.220 I didn't know exactly what the surprises would be.
00:03:07.560 But one thing you can be sure of
00:03:09.680 that whenever you've got one of these fog of war
00:03:12.440 or chaotic situations,
00:03:14.340 something is going to come out of this
00:03:16.140 that you say to yourself,
00:03:17.780 what?
00:03:19.460 How did that happen?
00:03:21.040 You know, just something completely
00:03:22.860 in a left field that explains everything.
00:03:25.820 Now, I don't know what that'll be.
00:03:27.580 But there's a weird thing happening now
00:03:29.700 in slow motion that I don't understand.
00:03:33.080 And it goes like this.
00:03:34.200 The Americans are getting out of Afghanistan
00:03:37.620 without violence.
00:03:40.260 Mostly.
00:03:41.340 Right?
00:03:41.660 You're hearing anecdotal stories
00:03:43.000 of somebody who doesn't want to cross a checkpoint.
00:03:46.660 Stories of the Taliban taking away passports,
00:03:50.960 something like that.
00:03:51.920 And it's probably happening
00:03:52.780 because I doubt the Taliban has such command and control
00:03:55.900 that they can control every checkpoint.
00:03:58.200 But overall, am I wrong
00:04:02.300 that the Biden administration
00:04:06.240 seems to think it can get the people out
00:04:09.200 on time by the end of the month
00:04:12.120 and that it's going peacefully?
00:04:16.520 Now, here's the weird thing.
00:04:19.500 You know your unintended consequences
00:04:21.940 and we're all geniuses?
00:04:23.740 Aren't we all geniuses?
00:04:25.400 We can predict exactly what will happen
00:04:28.360 in every international situation
00:04:30.380 because we're so smart.
00:04:34.900 But here's something
00:04:36.340 that might have accidentally happened.
00:04:40.440 The best case scenario.
00:04:44.120 I'm not going to say it's true yet
00:04:46.520 and certainly I think all evidence suggests
00:04:49.200 that the withdrawal was botched.
00:04:52.140 So my first take, if you remember,
00:04:54.480 was hold, hold.
00:04:56.720 We need to find out more information.
00:04:58.400 It looks botched, but wait.
00:05:00.640 There might be something we don't know about
00:05:02.220 because why is it we all see it botched
00:05:04.080 but the people in charge
00:05:05.740 all did the thing that was obviously wrong?
00:05:08.740 There's something to explain that.
00:05:10.360 We don't know yet.
00:05:10.960 So I said, oh, wait.
00:05:12.300 But I waited.
00:05:13.940 I waited for the administration
00:05:15.120 to give us its version of the story
00:05:16.840 and it just sounds botched.
00:05:20.240 Maybe there's more to it,
00:05:21.580 but it just sounds botched so far.
00:05:24.940 And I say that only from the perspective
00:05:27.320 of the administration didn't really put up a fight.
00:05:31.020 They didn't give you an argument
00:05:32.260 that they did it right that made any sense.
00:05:35.200 They're saying they did a good job,
00:05:36.960 but they're not really supporting that argument.
00:05:39.700 So here's the most optimistic thing you could say.
00:05:47.080 And I'm not saying it's true.
00:05:49.000 It's just interesting that it's possible.
00:05:51.320 And in fact, maybe more possible than the alternative.
00:05:54.840 And it goes like this.
00:05:56.560 The way this came down
00:05:58.160 was the least loss of death possible under all scenarios.
00:06:04.140 I think that's where it's heading.
00:06:08.800 That this is accidentally, totally botched,
00:06:12.600 but accidentally gave us the best outcome.
00:06:16.140 Why?
00:06:17.220 Because Afghanistan fell so quickly.
00:06:20.520 What could have been the safest thing
00:06:22.240 to happen in Afghanistan?
00:06:24.480 I hate to say it,
00:06:25.420 but if it's inevitable the Taliban is going to take over,
00:06:28.720 the safest thing is to surrender right away.
00:06:31.600 That's what happened.
00:06:32.200 So we didn't see it coming.
00:06:34.280 We weren't prepared for it.
00:06:36.400 But it was the safest thing.
00:06:38.580 Just complete surrender on day one.
00:06:41.420 Because otherwise you have the fight
00:06:42.980 and you still surrender.
00:06:45.260 I mean, you get to the same place, right?
00:06:48.020 So, and then, but the second part,
00:06:51.100 and the part we're obsessing on,
00:06:52.900 is the withdrawal.
00:06:54.520 You know, that's completely botched, right?
00:06:57.020 Does everybody agree
00:06:58.200 that we're all the experts
00:07:00.140 and we would have gotten the people out
00:07:01.760 that wanted to be evacuated,
00:07:04.140 we would have done that first
00:07:06.240 before we got rid of most of the military.
00:07:08.640 Now, we did put military back in,
00:07:10.700 but they're not getting people, etc.
00:07:12.700 So it's still botched,
00:07:14.680 no doubt about it.
00:07:15.740 But, so far, the Taliban has been playing it strategically very smart.
00:07:23.560 And the strategic smart thing for the Taliban to do
00:07:27.540 would be to give us a deadline that's a little challenging, but possible.
00:07:31.760 And they did that.
00:07:34.680 Apparently, at least according to the Biden administration,
00:07:37.720 that deadline is challenging,
00:07:40.420 but possible.
00:07:42.220 Like, you know, we have a really good chance
00:07:44.280 of getting really close to achieving it.
00:07:47.220 Now, so far, that's pretty reasonable
00:07:49.520 for a group that's known for its unreasonable actions.
00:07:55.240 What happens if...
00:07:58.840 I'll just put this as a hypothetical.
00:08:00.900 It's not a prediction.
00:08:02.580 It's a hypothetical,
00:08:03.740 and things are heading in this direction.
00:08:05.960 What happens if the hostages...
00:08:08.240 Not the hostages.
00:08:09.380 Well, they might be.
00:08:10.380 What happens if the people we want to evacuate,
00:08:12.740 including the Afghan interpreters
00:08:14.580 and the people who we want to get out,
00:08:16.400 what happens if we get them all out?
00:08:18.020 Isn't this going to look like the biggest success of all times?
00:08:25.800 At the same time, it was botched.
00:08:28.500 Believe it or not, they can happen at the same time.
00:08:31.600 You can botch everything and just get lucky.
00:08:35.540 That's what it looks like.
00:08:37.400 It looks like everything was botched.
00:08:40.560 And so far, fingers crossed,
00:08:43.240 you know, there's no reason to think it'll go this way
00:08:45.100 all the way to the end,
00:08:45.880 but fingers crossed,
00:08:48.420 they avoided a civil war by collapsing immediately,
00:08:52.160 and if we get the people out,
00:08:54.660 which looks like it's happening,
00:08:56.820 it's the best thing that could have happened.
00:08:59.980 Am I wrong about that?
00:09:02.140 I mean, if you're just counting bodies,
00:09:05.080 how could we have done better than this,
00:09:06.840 assuming that we do get the evacuees out?
00:09:10.060 Now, that's a big, big assumption, right?
00:09:11.840 But so far, so far it's happening.
00:09:14.740 Now, I'm not saying you're saying it's delusional.
00:09:18.620 It's not delusional because it's put in a statistical sense, right?
00:09:24.360 It could happen.
00:09:25.720 It's just unlikely.
00:09:27.320 I mean, if you had to predict,
00:09:29.240 wouldn't you predict that the Taliban will not let everybody out,
00:09:32.920 keep a bunch of hostages?
00:09:34.820 Most obvious thing, right?
00:09:36.100 And I feel like, inevitably, they're going to keep a few.
00:09:40.340 But let's say, I'll just give you a number.
00:09:42.780 Let's say they keep 20, I don't know, 20 Americans that didn't get out.
00:09:49.040 But we get everybody else out.
00:09:52.160 So suppose we lose 20 souls if they happen to be American.
00:09:56.380 What did we avoid?
00:09:57.580 Probably 100,000 deaths, 50,000, if the Civil War happened.
00:10:05.720 So Biden may have accidentally traded 20 American lives.
00:10:11.040 This is just a speculation, not based on data.
00:10:14.280 He could have accidentally traded 20 lives to save 50,000 Afghans.
00:10:18.820 Is that immoral?
00:10:22.280 Well, it's not America first.
00:10:24.860 But I don't know if it's immoral.
00:10:27.500 You know, you could argue that one.
00:10:29.320 All right.
00:10:31.900 Rasmussen poll asked,
00:10:33.680 if Taliban takes American hostages,
00:10:35.480 should the U.S. use military to rescue them?
00:10:37.560 And 78% say yes.
00:10:40.320 Is that good news or bad news?
00:10:42.700 It's good news.
00:10:44.320 Because the Taliban needs to know
00:10:46.560 that we're going to get our hostages out
00:10:49.700 or there's going to be big trouble.
00:10:53.000 Hostages slash evacuees.
00:10:55.940 And having 78% of the public say,
00:10:58.760 yeah, send the military in,
00:11:00.920 while about the same amount of the public says
00:11:03.880 get out of Afghanistan,
00:11:06.020 that is exactly the right situation
00:11:09.140 for the Taliban to say,
00:11:11.960 you know, if we don't let everybody out,
00:11:15.080 we're really effed.
00:11:17.000 Right?
00:11:17.860 So this is the best poll I've ever seen in my life
00:11:20.920 because it says the American public
00:11:23.040 are completely on the same side.
00:11:25.560 I mean, 78% is as good as you can get
00:11:27.500 in the American public.
00:11:29.520 And then Rasmussen poll also asked,
00:11:32.840 is the Biden administration doing enough
00:11:35.140 to evacuate Americans?
00:11:37.060 And 59% said no.
00:11:38.600 And I think this is under the category of,
00:11:42.440 how could you do enough?
00:11:43.440 You know, really, how could you do enough?
00:11:48.980 You know, it's always going to look like
00:11:50.760 it wasn't soon enough, didn't do enough.
00:11:53.960 But it does look like it's not enough.
00:11:55.600 All right.
00:11:57.460 Here's the question that I asked on Twitter.
00:12:01.380 And this is a,
00:12:04.120 this topic will be more about persuasion
00:12:07.440 than about whether you should get a vaccination.
00:12:10.820 Can we agree that I don't care if you get vaccinated?
00:12:13.960 Everybody?
00:12:14.540 Everybody?
00:12:15.500 I don't care if you get vaccinated.
00:12:16.800 So anything I say next
00:12:18.880 is going to be about vaccination persuasion,
00:12:22.500 but it's not intended to work on you.
00:12:25.220 Really, it's not a trick.
00:12:26.940 Right?
00:12:27.360 Let me say it again.
00:12:28.660 This is not some kind of like
00:12:29.820 backward psychology hypnosis trick.
00:12:32.320 I really don't want to persuade you on this.
00:12:34.920 I really, really don't.
00:12:36.200 It's totally unethical
00:12:37.380 because it's a, you know,
00:12:39.520 it's a health decision.
00:12:40.480 You've got to make your own decision on that.
00:12:42.340 I'll persuade you on politics.
00:12:45.080 I'd be happy to do that.
00:12:46.820 I'll persuade you on how to live your life better,
00:12:49.220 how to have systems instead of goals.
00:12:50.780 I'll persuade you on all kinds of stuff,
00:12:53.160 but not your health decisions.
00:12:55.680 Not that.
00:12:57.120 That's on you.
00:12:58.100 Totally.
00:12:59.180 But let's talk about the persuasion game
00:13:01.460 because it's happening,
00:13:02.380 whether I participate or not.
00:13:04.740 And Omar Khatib alerted me to,
00:13:07.640 there's a series of tweets from Advertising Insider
00:13:10.740 in which they asked some advertising professionals
00:13:14.200 what the governments could do
00:13:17.340 to persuade more people to get the vaccination.
00:13:20.760 Now, did the advertising executives
00:13:23.840 say much the same thing I did,
00:13:26.720 which is, hold on,
00:13:28.640 even if we could,
00:13:30.480 even if we could persuade people
00:13:33.000 to get the vaccinations,
00:13:34.200 it would be unethical.
00:13:35.120 So let me back out of this conversation right away
00:13:38.940 because I'm a marketing professional
00:13:41.100 and I'm not going to cross that ethical barrier.
00:13:44.720 Well, that didn't happen.
00:13:46.500 Instead, they gave you pretty good specific suggestions
00:13:49.100 for doing the most unethical thing in the world,
00:13:53.980 persuading people to get a health outcome,
00:13:56.660 a particular treatment.
00:13:58.300 So here are some of their persuasion points
00:14:01.600 and I'm going to evaluate them
00:14:03.520 so you can get a little lesson on persuasion
00:14:05.660 at the same time.
00:14:07.080 Number one,
00:14:08.260 are marketing executives good at persuasion?
00:14:12.240 Anybody?
00:14:13.880 Anybody?
00:14:15.180 Who works at a big company
00:14:16.640 where there are professional marketing people?
00:14:19.700 Are those professional marketing people
00:14:21.700 trained in persuasion, let's say, the way I am?
00:14:25.140 I'm a hypnotist, et cetera.
00:14:26.980 Do you think they have the same kind of persuasion training
00:14:30.140 as this cartoonist?
00:14:33.400 No, not even close.
00:14:35.600 But they do have a lot of tools
00:14:37.440 so they can do polls
00:14:39.160 and they can do focus groups
00:14:41.120 and they can A-B test things.
00:14:43.500 So they can use brute force
00:14:45.400 to get to a good outcome
00:14:47.300 because you can just randomly try stuff,
00:14:49.820 semi-randomly,
00:14:51.040 and then just test it and see if it works
00:14:52.940 and then do more of the stuff that works.
00:14:54.520 So that's marketing.
00:14:55.200 But here's what marketers are not good at.
00:14:59.680 The first try.
00:15:01.420 Because almost nobody is, right?
00:15:03.240 The first thing you try
00:15:04.600 isn't necessarily going to work.
00:15:06.900 So here are some of their first things to try.
00:15:11.140 From, let's see,
00:15:12.900 this is from,
00:15:13.740 these are different marketing executives.
00:15:15.980 This is from Jim Lesser.
00:15:17.900 Suggests using humor
00:15:19.060 to disarm those who oppose the vaccine.
00:15:21.340 Nope.
00:15:24.160 Nope.
00:15:25.220 You can use humor.
00:15:27.220 It'll maybe make a good commercial
00:15:29.060 for selling your soap
00:15:30.360 or your beer.
00:15:32.400 But humor isn't going to change
00:15:34.660 your health care decisions.
00:15:36.800 I'm sorry.
00:15:37.880 It just isn't.
00:15:39.620 Now,
00:15:41.460 maybe he's right.
00:15:43.000 That's why you test it, right?
00:15:44.120 So what is the value of my opinion
00:15:47.140 on the initial input,
00:15:49.280 the thing that you could test?
00:15:51.020 Well,
00:15:52.160 I think my opinion is pretty good,
00:15:54.020 better than the average,
00:15:54.960 because I study this field.
00:15:57.020 But I could be wrong.
00:15:58.680 Maybe you test this
00:15:59.620 and it's exactly the right thing.
00:16:01.200 But I doubt it.
00:16:02.660 My instinct tells me
00:16:03.700 that humor
00:16:04.180 is not where you go on this.
00:16:07.040 Definitely not.
00:16:07.820 In fact,
00:16:09.340 I would go with fear.
00:16:11.380 The opposite of humor.
00:16:13.060 Humor is,
00:16:13.720 ha, ha, ha,
00:16:14.140 I'm relaxed,
00:16:14.820 I'm having a good time.
00:16:16.160 That's not the head
00:16:17.040 you want to put people in.
00:16:18.500 If you want somebody
00:16:19.180 to do something as radical
00:16:20.540 as putting a needle in their arm,
00:16:22.460 you've got to scare the shit out of them.
00:16:24.740 Right?
00:16:25.580 That'll work.
00:16:26.900 You've got to scare them.
00:16:28.540 I don't think anything else will work.
00:16:30.160 Let's go on with these other ideas.
00:16:32.960 He said that,
00:16:33.900 the same guy said that
00:16:35.140 the stickiness of puns
00:16:36.920 can be effective.
00:16:41.680 I don't know about that.
00:16:43.560 Now,
00:16:44.240 the stickiness of puns
00:16:45.800 in terms of wordplay,
00:16:47.440 that does have
00:16:48.640 some scientific support.
00:16:50.840 If the glove doesn't fit,
00:16:52.180 you must acquit.
00:16:53.820 It's sort of wordplay.
00:16:55.220 It's a rhyme.
00:16:55.940 The rhyme does actually
00:16:56.940 create some persuasion.
00:16:59.680 So science supports that.
00:17:02.560 But that's not enough
00:17:03.700 to get somebody vaccinated.
00:17:05.160 All right.
00:17:06.920 Another guy said,
00:17:09.460 a marketing professional said,
00:17:10.680 let's turn it from
00:17:11.660 you've got to get protected
00:17:12.800 to let's effing
00:17:14.660 track this thing down
00:17:16.440 and kill it.
00:17:18.300 So Mike Lee,
00:17:19.860 I think,
00:17:20.140 said that.
00:17:21.940 Well,
00:17:22.380 I'm not sure about the attribution.
00:17:23.980 But the idea is that
00:17:24.740 you've got to get tough with it.
00:17:26.640 Talk tough.
00:17:27.220 And then people say,
00:17:28.100 yeah,
00:17:28.720 let's go to war
00:17:29.660 against that virus.
00:17:31.140 Terrible idea.
00:17:32.520 Terrible idea.
00:17:34.680 I mean,
00:17:35.740 I don't even know
00:17:36.920 what to say about it.
00:17:37.720 It's just a terrible idea.
00:17:39.900 All right.
00:17:40.240 So forget that one.
00:17:43.140 Another said that
00:17:44.440 who originally
00:17:46.180 cast a doubt
00:17:47.040 on the vaccine
00:17:47.800 should play the trump card
00:17:49.280 and give him credit
00:17:50.880 for starting
00:17:51.380 the vaccine program
00:17:52.320 and directing
00:17:52.960 the resources.
00:17:53.640 Possibly the worst
00:17:55.420 of all the ideas.
00:17:56.980 If you bring Trump
00:17:58.460 into the conversation
00:17:59.700 of vaccinations,
00:18:01.420 do people even try
00:18:02.580 to make a medical decision?
00:18:05.000 No.
00:18:05.940 As soon as you add Trump
00:18:07.280 to the conversation,
00:18:08.500 it's a political conversation.
00:18:10.500 It doesn't matter
00:18:11.440 what the data is.
00:18:13.400 You throw Trump
00:18:14.200 into any conversation
00:18:15.280 about health care
00:18:15.980 and it's just
00:18:16.920 a Trump conversation.
00:18:18.320 So this is
00:18:19.020 a horrible idea.
00:18:21.320 Like really,
00:18:22.200 really,
00:18:22.540 really bad
00:18:23.860 from this
00:18:25.340 marketing professional.
00:18:26.640 Don't throw Trump
00:18:27.440 into the conversation.
00:18:28.820 That just makes
00:18:29.440 everything worse.
00:18:31.140 All right.
00:18:31.640 Here's another one.
00:18:33.780 An effective campaign
00:18:34.940 would have to find
00:18:35.640 people who are
00:18:36.320 anti-vaccine
00:18:37.460 and convert them.
00:18:41.680 So you'd have to find
00:18:42.440 the anti-vaccine people
00:18:43.960 and get them
00:18:44.660 to be pro-vaccine
00:18:45.760 and then help sell it.
00:18:48.360 Would that convince you?
00:18:50.320 If you saw somebody
00:18:51.300 who is anti-vaccine,
00:18:52.740 let's say you are,
00:18:54.900 and they were that
00:18:55.980 anti-vaccine
00:18:57.280 just like you,
00:18:58.620 but unlike you,
00:18:59.600 they had changed
00:19:00.540 to be pro-vaccine,
00:19:01.580 would that change
00:19:02.120 your mind?
00:19:03.580 No.
00:19:04.980 No.
00:19:06.200 No, it wouldn't.
00:19:08.100 Not even for a second.
00:19:09.680 The first thing you say
00:19:10.680 is, well,
00:19:11.140 they bought off another.
00:19:12.820 There's another sheep.
00:19:14.580 Looks like another sheep
00:19:15.640 went to slaughter.
00:19:17.080 No, it would be
00:19:17.780 the least persuasive thing
00:19:19.060 in the world
00:19:19.460 to see what other people
00:19:20.500 are doing.
00:19:21.620 Now,
00:19:22.820 suppose
00:19:23.540 all you did
00:19:25.040 was show that
00:19:25.800 smart, good-looking people
00:19:27.160 were getting vaccinated
00:19:28.140 and the people
00:19:30.100 who were not getting
00:19:30.820 vaccinated were
00:19:31.700 unhealthy-looking slobs
00:19:33.400 who make lots of
00:19:34.120 bad decisions in general.
00:19:36.220 Well, that might work.
00:19:37.660 That might work.
00:19:39.040 Not a specific person
00:19:40.460 because we discount
00:19:42.320 celebrities' opinions
00:19:43.560 completely.
00:19:44.080 But what if it was
00:19:45.320 a montage
00:19:46.980 of smart,
00:19:49.200 beautiful-looking people
00:19:50.160 getting vaccinated
00:19:50.980 and, you know,
00:19:52.700 obese,
00:19:53.680 bad decision-makers
00:19:55.260 not getting vaccinated?
00:19:58.340 That might work
00:19:59.240 because people are tribal
00:20:00.600 and they'd say,
00:20:01.280 oh, I want to be
00:20:02.020 in that tribe,
00:20:02.620 not that tribe.
00:20:04.000 So, I mean,
00:20:05.200 it would move
00:20:06.220 some people
00:20:06.760 in either direction,
00:20:08.000 but I think your net
00:20:08.740 would be good.
00:20:09.600 And when I say that,
00:20:10.480 again, remember,
00:20:11.200 you'd have to test it.
00:20:12.360 I'm not smart enough,
00:20:14.460 nor is anybody,
00:20:15.960 to know what will work
00:20:17.220 without testing it.
00:20:18.540 Persuasion doesn't
00:20:19.240 really work that way.
00:20:20.180 Even the hypnotist,
00:20:21.520 even the hypnotist
00:20:22.880 who's hypnotizing you
00:20:23.880 in real time,
00:20:25.100 just the two of you
00:20:25.900 in a room,
00:20:27.320 that hypnotist
00:20:27.980 is still A-B testing
00:20:29.080 because you're trying stuff,
00:20:30.800 you're looking at the reaction,
00:20:31.960 try something else,
00:20:32.740 look at the reaction.
00:20:33.880 So without the testing,
00:20:35.120 you don't really have
00:20:36.160 a system for persuasion.
00:20:40.700 It'd have to be
00:20:41.600 part of the team.
00:20:42.740 All right,
00:20:42.960 here's some more.
00:20:45.640 You shouldn't assume
00:20:46.640 everyone is motivated
00:20:47.660 by politics.
00:20:49.060 Okay,
00:20:49.380 that's real helpful
00:20:50.180 because,
00:20:53.240 well,
00:20:53.660 how does that
00:20:54.340 persuade you?
00:20:55.400 I guess the point is
00:20:56.460 to make it non-political,
00:20:57.860 but we've tried that.
00:20:58.640 That didn't seem
00:20:59.320 to make any difference.
00:21:02.420 Someone who was pregnant
00:21:03.940 and also a marketing professional
00:21:05.540 said that she was persuaded
00:21:07.560 by someone,
00:21:08.920 by hearing from people
00:21:10.020 who are genuinely
00:21:10.960 concerned for you.
00:21:13.140 Interesting.
00:21:14.180 So her suggestion was
00:21:15.720 that she was persuaded
00:21:16.720 by hearing from people
00:21:18.420 who were genuinely
00:21:19.300 concerned for her.
00:21:21.260 Now we're getting closer.
00:21:23.660 Now that's some real persuasion,
00:21:27.160 at least good thinking,
00:21:29.340 because we are persuaded
00:21:31.180 by people who genuinely
00:21:32.380 care for us.
00:21:33.960 Why is it that you don't think
00:21:35.680 the pharmaceutical companies
00:21:37.060 can be trusted?
00:21:38.540 Because they don't care for you.
00:21:40.340 Why is it that you don't think
00:21:41.500 the government
00:21:41.960 could be trusted?
00:21:43.720 They don't care for you.
00:21:45.060 Why do you not believe
00:21:46.140 the pundit you see
00:21:47.740 on the news?
00:21:49.060 Don't care for you.
00:21:50.500 In fact,
00:21:51.100 it might be the same pundit
00:21:52.260 who wants to hunt you down.
00:21:54.160 It might be,
00:21:54.960 in a lot of cases.
00:21:57.360 So no,
00:21:58.660 most of the people
00:21:59.600 telling you
00:22:00.200 to get the vaccination
00:22:01.400 are people
00:22:02.120 who don't care for you.
00:22:04.160 Literally don't care
00:22:05.080 about you one bit.
00:22:05.900 They don't even know you.
00:22:07.220 You're a stranger.
00:22:08.880 But how persuasive
00:22:09.820 would be somebody
00:22:10.540 who actually does
00:22:11.540 care for you?
00:22:13.120 Now,
00:22:13.640 they may not be experts
00:22:14.820 on vaccinations,
00:22:17.120 but I'll bet
00:22:17.940 it is persuasive.
00:22:19.560 So I don't know
00:22:20.360 how you could ramp that up
00:22:21.760 to get lots of concerned people
00:22:23.660 talking to vaccinated people,
00:22:25.180 and I'm not suggesting
00:22:26.260 you should.
00:22:27.740 I'm just saying
00:22:28.440 that at least this is
00:22:29.420 genuine persuasion
00:22:30.580 and smartness.
00:22:31.960 It looks like something
00:22:33.000 you could test.
00:22:34.620 All right,
00:22:34.780 here's another one.
00:22:35.380 You should treat
00:22:38.620 the campaign
00:22:39.340 for the vaccination
00:22:40.160 persuasion
00:22:40.840 with the kind
00:22:41.820 of budget
00:22:42.220 and tactics
00:22:43.000 you'd see
00:22:43.480 a political party
00:22:44.400 use to get out
00:22:45.340 the vote.
00:22:47.540 I think they did,
00:22:49.280 didn't they?
00:22:50.260 Wouldn't you say
00:22:50.840 that the government
00:22:51.480 did exactly that?
00:22:53.020 Used the same kind
00:22:53.960 of mass persuasion
00:22:55.100 as get out the vote?
00:22:56.480 I feel like that's
00:22:57.440 sort of a non-answer.
00:22:58.720 That's a very
00:22:59.200 marketing-meeting answer.
00:23:02.100 All right,
00:23:02.480 here's my take.
00:23:03.480 So I'm going to add
00:23:04.320 my own persuasion
00:23:06.200 suggestions.
00:23:07.140 Again,
00:23:08.840 I'm not trying
00:23:09.780 to persuade you.
00:23:10.600 I'm teaching you
00:23:11.200 how to do persuasion.
00:23:13.000 Okay?
00:23:13.620 Can we all deal
00:23:14.580 with that distinction?
00:23:15.940 Not trying to persuade you.
00:23:17.800 That would be unethical.
00:23:19.220 But I'll tell you
00:23:19.760 how persuasion works.
00:23:21.540 I think you need
00:23:22.400 a fake because.
00:23:24.140 In other words,
00:23:24.760 I think there are
00:23:25.180 a bunch of people
00:23:25.860 who are close
00:23:26.760 to being persuaded
00:23:27.720 and would like to.
00:23:28.760 But they're still
00:23:30.180 stuck in their
00:23:30.840 old opinion.
00:23:32.220 So they need
00:23:32.720 a fake because.
00:23:34.440 Something that
00:23:35.200 they can say,
00:23:35.980 oh,
00:23:36.960 something changed.
00:23:38.800 So now my
00:23:39.420 old opinion
00:23:39.960 was right,
00:23:40.980 but now my
00:23:41.860 new opinion
00:23:42.320 is right too
00:23:43.080 because something
00:23:44.520 changed.
00:23:45.460 So you need
00:23:46.020 that fake because
00:23:47.100 the something
00:23:47.720 changed.
00:23:48.240 The FDA approval
00:23:49.060 might be that.
00:23:50.220 So I think
00:23:50.600 some people
00:23:51.040 are going to say
00:23:51.580 even though the polls
00:23:52.500 suggest it's not
00:23:53.460 going to make
00:23:53.780 much difference,
00:23:54.700 I think it will.
00:23:55.580 I think the polls
00:23:57.240 are misleading.
00:23:58.740 I think that
00:23:59.300 the FDA approval
00:24:00.220 is even going
00:24:00.900 to make the
00:24:01.460 Moderna vaccination
00:24:03.360 more popular
00:24:04.260 even though it
00:24:05.360 doesn't have
00:24:05.860 FDA approval.
00:24:06.800 People are going
00:24:07.320 to kind of expect
00:24:08.000 that it will get it
00:24:08.920 because the Pfizer
00:24:09.900 got it.
00:24:10.900 So there's some
00:24:11.780 crossover persuasion
00:24:13.320 that the Pfizer
00:24:14.120 thing will make
00:24:14.840 the Moderna thing
00:24:15.560 look safer
00:24:16.180 even though they're
00:24:16.780 different things.
00:24:17.940 It's just how
00:24:18.460 your brain works.
00:24:19.980 So the fake because.
00:24:21.560 I would look
00:24:22.700 for other fake
00:24:23.440 becauses,
00:24:24.240 not just the FDA
00:24:25.260 approval,
00:24:25.960 but how about
00:24:27.080 we've waited
00:24:27.940 long enough
00:24:28.600 that the odds
00:24:30.500 of problems
00:24:32.100 are way down
00:24:33.620 because you
00:24:34.080 wouldn't have
00:24:34.380 seen most of
00:24:34.920 them pop up.
00:24:36.940 That would be
00:24:37.500 a fake because,
00:24:38.220 but there could
00:24:38.600 be others too.
00:24:40.000 As I said,
00:24:40.820 you need fear
00:24:41.520 and visual persuasion.
00:24:43.180 Anything less
00:24:43.880 is barely trying.
00:24:45.360 So you need to
00:24:46.120 show people
00:24:46.860 dying of COVID
00:24:47.980 like in the
00:24:48.740 worst possible
00:24:49.360 ways and saying,
00:24:50.820 I should have
00:24:51.480 gotten the
00:24:51.820 vaccination
00:24:52.220 and then
00:24:53.260 dying.
00:24:54.700 And there
00:24:55.000 are plenty
00:24:55.300 of anecdotes
00:24:55.840 like that.
00:24:57.140 CNN is
00:24:57.720 promoting that
00:24:59.100 kind of
00:24:59.640 persuasion
00:25:00.400 with their
00:25:01.000 story choices
00:25:02.240 and I think
00:25:04.260 it works.
00:25:05.180 I mean,
00:25:05.400 you could argue
00:25:06.160 that CNN
00:25:06.640 shouldn't be
00:25:07.240 in the persuasion
00:25:07.980 game,
00:25:09.040 but unfortunately
00:25:09.760 they are.
00:25:10.860 And I would
00:25:11.160 say that those
00:25:11.780 anecdotal,
00:25:13.000 terrible visuals
00:25:14.380 where you can
00:25:15.120 sort of put
00:25:15.580 yourself in the
00:25:16.180 bed and you
00:25:16.560 say,
00:25:16.760 oh,
00:25:16.980 I can see
00:25:17.400 myself being
00:25:18.200 that guy.
00:25:19.440 Don't be
00:25:19.840 that guy.
00:25:20.300 Show people
00:25:25.020 that you
00:25:25.500 like getting
00:25:26.420 vaccinated.
00:25:27.400 That's similar
00:25:27.960 to showing
00:25:28.440 the two
00:25:30.080 groups,
00:25:30.720 one is
00:25:31.080 beautiful and
00:25:31.680 one is
00:25:31.960 not.
00:25:33.180 I would
00:25:33.860 also like
00:25:34.280 to see an
00:25:34.680 expert explaining
00:25:35.720 risk management
00:25:36.760 to people.
00:25:38.860 You've never
00:25:39.600 seen that,
00:25:40.580 except me,
00:25:41.500 and I'm
00:25:42.060 far from an
00:25:42.640 expert.
00:25:43.620 If you
00:25:44.560 can't show
00:25:45.040 me,
00:25:45.760 let's say,
00:25:46.280 Nate Silver,
00:25:47.580 I like to
00:25:48.060 use him
00:25:48.460 because a
00:25:49.720 lot of
00:25:49.960 you disagree
00:25:50.560 with some
00:25:51.000 of his
00:25:51.280 opinions,
00:25:52.080 so he's
00:25:52.940 sort of
00:25:53.220 perfect for
00:25:53.700 this.
00:25:54.360 You can
00:25:54.780 disagree with
00:25:55.380 his opinions,
00:25:56.700 but not
00:25:57.220 his rationale,
00:25:59.160 meaning that
00:25:59.760 his thinking
00:26:01.160 process is
00:26:02.140 generally pretty
00:26:03.200 close to
00:26:03.680 flawless,
00:26:04.940 because it's
00:26:05.320 his field.
00:26:06.540 He knows
00:26:06.900 how to think
00:26:07.440 statistically.
00:26:08.260 He's good
00:26:08.660 at it.
00:26:09.600 Wouldn't
00:26:09.820 you like to
00:26:10.280 see somebody
00:26:11.020 who is just
00:26:11.760 flat out good
00:26:13.200 at it,
00:26:14.200 maybe a few
00:26:14.840 of them,
00:26:15.200 so you've
00:26:15.440 got a few
00:26:15.740 different opinions,
00:26:16.760 explaining to
00:26:17.540 you the
00:26:17.860 risk benefit,
00:26:18.660 thinking through
00:26:20.040 all of the
00:26:20.600 risks we
00:26:21.060 know about
00:26:21.540 and all
00:26:22.400 the ones
00:26:22.680 we don't,
00:26:23.720 putting some
00:26:24.220 kind of
00:26:24.680 statistics on
00:26:25.580 them and
00:26:25.780 just walking
00:26:26.340 you through
00:26:26.700 it.
00:26:26.920 Say,
00:26:27.140 okay,
00:26:27.800 here's the
00:26:28.260 risk of
00:26:28.580 getting
00:26:28.800 vaccinated.
00:26:29.760 Boom,
00:26:30.060 boom,
00:26:30.220 boom,
00:26:30.380 boom,
00:26:30.500 boom,
00:26:30.540 boom.
00:26:31.140 All these
00:26:31.560 potential risks.
00:26:32.880 Here's what
00:26:33.220 we know about
00:26:33.800 them.
00:26:34.800 Here's the
00:26:35.240 risk of not
00:26:35.740 getting vaccinated.
00:26:36.560 Here's what
00:26:36.860 we know about
00:26:37.400 it.
00:26:37.800 Put some
00:26:38.140 numbers on it.
00:26:39.540 I think that
00:26:40.320 would be at
00:26:41.120 least a fake
00:26:41.780 because for
00:26:42.480 some people.
00:26:43.220 Some people
00:26:43.680 would say,
00:26:44.000 you know,
00:26:44.620 nobody had ever
00:26:45.280 explained it that
00:26:46.000 well.
00:26:47.220 Right?
00:26:48.320 All right,
00:26:48.920 let me,
00:26:50.940 okay,
00:26:51.420 here's the
00:26:52.300 persuasion that
00:26:53.040 would work.
00:26:53.840 You ready for
00:26:54.320 this?
00:26:54.980 Again,
00:26:55.400 I'm not
00:26:55.740 suggesting it.
00:26:56.960 This is an
00:26:57.440 example of
00:26:58.000 what would
00:26:58.320 work.
00:26:59.380 You take
00:26:59.780 Nate Silver
00:27:00.360 and you
00:27:01.800 say,
00:27:02.200 sit down
00:27:02.760 for a
00:27:03.580 couple
00:27:03.760 hours
00:27:04.280 with
00:27:05.320 Mike
00:27:06.480 Rowe.
00:27:07.620 You all
00:27:08.140 know Mike
00:27:08.580 Rowe.
00:27:09.360 If you're
00:27:09.740 not American,
00:27:10.460 you might
00:27:10.680 not.
00:27:11.680 Mike
00:27:11.960 Rowe is
00:27:12.300 a famous
00:27:13.420 personality
00:27:14.300 who is
00:27:15.140 sort of
00:27:15.420 an every
00:27:15.840 man.
00:27:16.860 He does
00:27:17.420 what's
00:27:17.720 called
00:27:17.920 dirty
00:27:18.240 jobs.
00:27:18.840 He did
00:27:19.040 a show
00:27:19.320 where he
00:27:19.740 would do
00:27:20.100 these awful
00:27:20.860 jobs where
00:27:21.460 you literally
00:27:21.940 get physically
00:27:22.600 dirty,
00:27:23.180 doing gross
00:27:24.080 stuff.
00:27:25.160 So he's
00:27:26.000 famous for
00:27:26.500 being like
00:27:26.940 a level
00:27:28.680 headed,
00:27:29.740 rational
00:27:30.320 person who
00:27:31.580 just can
00:27:32.860 see how
00:27:33.220 to get
00:27:33.480 stuff done.
00:27:34.800 That's
00:27:35.120 sort of
00:27:35.340 his brand.
00:27:36.580 So you
00:27:36.860 take Nate
00:27:37.360 Silver and
00:27:38.920 you spend
00:27:39.260 two hours
00:27:39.780 with Mike
00:27:40.180 Rowe teaching
00:27:40.800 him how to
00:27:41.900 look at the
00:27:42.480 statistics and
00:27:43.940 then you have
00:27:44.360 Mike Rowe
00:27:45.120 explain the
00:27:46.960 statistics to
00:27:47.880 the public.
00:27:48.920 Why?
00:27:49.660 Because if Nate
00:27:50.200 Silver does
00:27:50.700 it, you're
00:27:50.960 not going to
00:27:51.360 understand it.
00:27:53.480 He's almost
00:27:54.300 too good
00:27:54.840 because his
00:27:55.980 explanation would
00:27:56.720 have enough
00:27:57.320 nuance in it
00:27:58.100 to be accurate
00:27:58.900 but maybe a
00:28:00.320 little confusing
00:28:00.920 because you can't
00:28:01.520 follow the
00:28:01.900 nuance of
00:28:02.420 statistics.
00:28:03.440 But you take
00:28:03.920 that stuff and
00:28:05.180 you package it
00:28:05.860 up with Mike
00:28:06.440 Rowe, a
00:28:07.840 really, really
00:28:08.640 credible voice,
00:28:09.660 especially to the
00:28:10.360 right, who has a
00:28:11.480 lot of
00:28:11.780 resistance.
00:28:14.140 Mike Rowe
00:28:14.740 could sell the
00:28:15.560 shit out of
00:28:16.160 this.
00:28:17.160 He really
00:28:17.460 could.
00:28:18.360 Now, people
00:28:19.060 are saying, is
00:28:19.540 he a scientist?
00:28:20.460 Is he a
00:28:20.880 statistician?
00:28:21.580 No.
00:28:22.360 No.
00:28:23.040 He's you.
00:28:24.760 That's why it
00:28:25.420 works.
00:28:26.400 Do you know
00:28:26.740 who would be
00:28:27.160 the most
00:28:27.740 persuasive person
00:28:29.000 for you?
00:28:29.920 The person who
00:28:30.720 would convince
00:28:31.300 you specifically
00:28:32.480 the best
00:28:33.740 would be you.
00:28:35.160 If you could
00:28:36.340 make a digital
00:28:37.180 version of
00:28:37.760 yourself and
00:28:39.540 give it a script
00:28:40.380 written by
00:28:40.840 somebody who
00:28:41.280 knows what
00:28:41.620 they're talking
00:28:42.000 about, and
00:28:42.900 then that
00:28:43.220 digital version
00:28:43.900 talks you into
00:28:44.780 getting vaccinated,
00:28:46.160 it would be the
00:28:46.840 most persuasive
00:28:47.840 thing that could
00:28:48.400 happen.
00:28:49.040 You couldn't
00:28:49.420 beat that.
00:28:51.160 Mike Rowe is
00:28:53.360 you.
00:28:54.520 That's sort of
00:28:55.220 his brand.
00:28:56.940 I hate to
00:28:57.900 characterize other
00:28:58.720 people because he
00:28:59.340 might not want to
00:29:00.860 characterize himself
00:29:02.140 that way, which is
00:29:02.880 unfair.
00:29:03.920 But in my view,
00:29:06.340 the thing that makes
00:29:06.940 him popular is you
00:29:08.100 say, yeah, I think
00:29:08.940 just like that.
00:29:09.700 Mike Rowe is
00:29:11.760 saying the words
00:29:12.740 coming out of his
00:29:13.340 mouth are the
00:29:14.300 ones I'm thinking,
00:29:15.300 but he's saying it
00:29:15.980 better than I'm
00:29:16.540 thinking it.
00:29:17.400 That's the ultimate.
00:29:18.720 He says what you're
00:29:19.660 thinking, but he
00:29:21.140 says it better than
00:29:21.960 you're thinking it.
00:29:23.700 Somebody says, why
00:29:24.520 a white person?
00:29:25.180 That's a good
00:29:25.560 question.
00:29:26.660 If you could take
00:29:28.160 the same concept and
00:29:30.260 replace Mike Rowe with,
00:29:31.880 I'm going to say
00:29:32.280 Charles Barkley, just
00:29:33.640 to pick a name,
00:29:34.240 right?
00:29:34.700 I picked Charles
00:29:35.500 Barkley because I
00:29:36.880 don't know if
00:29:37.200 anybody's been more
00:29:37.940 popular with
00:29:38.740 everybody.
00:29:40.180 If you don't
00:29:40.860 follow basketball,
00:29:42.080 that's an unfamiliar
00:29:43.000 reference.
00:29:44.020 But Charles Barkley
00:29:44.800 is black, but his
00:29:47.820 sort of approach to
00:29:49.440 race is so
00:29:51.000 commonsensical that
00:29:53.020 it just appeals to
00:29:53.860 left and right in a
00:29:55.280 weird kind of way.
00:29:56.700 So, yeah, you take
00:29:58.360 a Charles Barkley, who
00:29:59.420 everybody likes, and
00:30:00.760 he's famous for being
00:30:01.960 a plain talker,
00:30:03.840 common sense kind of
00:30:04.880 guy.
00:30:05.140 Yeah, that's
00:30:06.820 actually, that might
00:30:08.460 even be an upgrade on
00:30:09.480 my idea.
00:30:10.160 I think Mike Rowe would
00:30:10.860 be great.
00:30:12.080 But yeah, a Charles
00:30:12.920 Barkley, absolutely.
00:30:14.160 He could do that.
00:30:15.740 Somebody says Steve
00:30:16.520 Harvey.
00:30:17.800 Maybe.
00:30:19.000 I don't know.
00:30:19.400 I think Charles
00:30:20.480 Barkley is more
00:30:21.580 relatable, I feel
00:30:24.440 like.
00:30:25.060 More of the, you
00:30:26.640 know, the every man
00:30:27.480 talks like you do
00:30:28.480 kind of thing.
00:30:28.940 And here's another
00:30:33.140 idea.
00:30:34.220 It seems to me that
00:30:35.300 the anti-vaxxers
00:30:36.620 like to call the
00:30:38.200 people who are
00:30:38.600 taking the
00:30:39.040 vaccination sheep.
00:30:41.100 What would Trump
00:30:42.200 do if he were the
00:30:43.040 recipient of a thing
00:30:44.040 like that?
00:30:45.060 He'd take the gun
00:30:45.880 out of their hand and
00:30:46.560 he'd turn it around.
00:30:48.180 So, if, here's a
00:30:50.540 little persuasion
00:30:52.820 tip.
00:30:54.240 The things that
00:30:54.940 people call you are
00:30:57.320 things that they
00:30:58.000 personally think are
00:30:59.080 persuasive.
00:31:00.760 So, if the
00:31:01.680 anti-vaxxers are
00:31:02.820 calling you sheep
00:31:03.840 for getting
00:31:04.760 vaccinated, what
00:31:05.600 would be the most
00:31:06.400 piercing thing you
00:31:08.840 could call them?
00:31:11.020 Sheep.
00:31:11.780 They've given you
00:31:12.600 the answer.
00:31:13.800 You don't have to
00:31:14.480 wonder what's the
00:31:15.400 worst thing that you
00:31:16.240 could say about
00:31:17.080 them, because they
00:31:18.080 told you.
00:31:19.080 It's what they're
00:31:19.660 calling you.
00:31:21.040 Sheep.
00:31:21.980 So, if you could
00:31:22.620 find a way, and
00:31:23.700 again, this is
00:31:24.240 persuasion.
00:31:24.980 I'm not saying you
00:31:25.560 should do this.
00:31:26.260 It's just how it
00:31:26.880 works.
00:31:27.220 If you could
00:31:28.340 find a way to
00:31:28.980 make the people
00:31:29.540 not getting
00:31:30.300 vaccinated and
00:31:31.880 label them
00:31:32.460 sheep, in all
00:31:34.660 likelihood, that
00:31:35.380 would really hurt,
00:31:36.420 because it's the
00:31:37.600 word they use when
00:31:38.660 they're insulting
00:31:39.260 other people.
00:31:40.160 If you could make
00:31:41.060 that stick to the
00:31:41.980 person using the
00:31:42.880 word, it's going
00:31:44.700 to hurt a little
00:31:45.280 extra.
00:31:46.640 So, that would be
00:31:47.260 an approach.
00:31:48.520 Also, the
00:31:49.360 anti-vaxxers tend
00:31:50.420 to be conspiracy
00:31:51.640 theorists or the
00:31:53.780 only people who
00:31:54.420 are right.
00:31:54.780 two possibilities,
00:31:57.320 right?
00:31:58.320 Either they are
00:31:59.440 subject to
00:32:00.320 believing conspiracies,
00:32:02.140 or they're right,
00:32:04.000 and we'll all find
00:32:04.740 out later.
00:32:06.000 But, in terms of
00:32:08.280 persuasion, if you
00:32:10.320 came up with a
00:32:11.080 conspiracy theory that
00:32:12.300 worked in the other
00:32:13.040 direction, hypothetically,
00:32:16.220 it could persuade
00:32:16.900 people.
00:32:17.720 So, in other words,
00:32:18.340 you would need a
00:32:18.940 counter-conspiracy
00:32:20.360 theory.
00:32:20.740 conspiracy theory
00:32:22.460 that says, for
00:32:23.100 example, that China
00:32:24.720 is the one telling
00:32:25.840 you that the
00:32:26.420 vaccinations are
00:32:27.200 dangerous.
00:32:28.580 Because they
00:32:29.240 probably are.
00:32:30.960 I don't know if
00:32:31.920 that's true, but I
00:32:34.120 would guess that
00:32:35.620 China and Russia are
00:32:36.700 messing with our
00:32:37.520 communications about
00:32:38.500 the vaccines, just
00:32:39.460 like they do with
00:32:40.240 our social structure
00:32:42.740 and our politics.
00:32:44.400 Right?
00:32:44.520 So, it seems to
00:32:47.320 me that you could
00:32:53.340 do a counter-conspiracy
00:32:55.020 theory.
00:32:55.960 All right.
00:32:57.980 When I asked
00:32:58.760 people to describe
00:33:00.320 to me how vaccines
00:33:01.760 make things worse, I
00:33:03.260 got a ton of
00:33:04.520 cognitive dissonance.
00:33:06.320 I'm going to give
00:33:06.900 you the hypnotist's
00:33:08.140 filter on how to
00:33:09.860 see the world.
00:33:11.080 So, the question I
00:33:11.940 asked is, how could
00:33:12.800 it be that so many
00:33:14.120 people think that
00:33:14.980 vaccinations make
00:33:16.600 the variants worse?
00:33:19.200 So, that's a very
00:33:21.140 popular thought and
00:33:22.680 may be true.
00:33:23.580 It might be true that
00:33:25.000 the vaccinations make
00:33:26.340 variants worse.
00:33:28.120 So, I asked the
00:33:28.980 following question.
00:33:29.800 Can you describe the
00:33:30.820 mechanism for how
00:33:32.160 that could possibly
00:33:32.920 happen?
00:33:33.700 Because everybody's
00:33:34.460 sure of it.
00:33:35.880 I mean, it seems like
00:33:36.880 the entire public is
00:33:37.900 sure that's true.
00:33:39.240 But I said, well,
00:33:40.000 describe how exactly
00:33:41.440 that works.
00:33:42.700 And what happened
00:33:47.300 was, and this is
00:33:49.200 the hypnotist's
00:33:49.880 filter.
00:33:51.040 So, my filter on
00:33:52.080 this is probably
00:33:52.960 different than yours.
00:33:54.060 Your filter is
00:33:54.960 probably something
00:33:56.660 like this.
00:33:58.160 Some people are
00:33:58.980 right and some
00:34:00.620 people are wrong.
00:34:02.500 Some people are
00:34:03.220 well-informed.
00:34:04.220 They did their own
00:34:04.860 research.
00:34:06.000 Some people are
00:34:06.480 not.
00:34:07.680 And to you, I
00:34:08.280 would think that
00:34:08.840 that's all there is
00:34:09.860 to this vaccination
00:34:10.840 makes variants worse
00:34:11.820 question.
00:34:12.740 Somebody's right,
00:34:13.540 somebody's wrong.
00:34:14.700 The hypnotist's
00:34:15.460 filter is different.
00:34:17.280 The hypnotist's
00:34:17.880 filter says this.
00:34:19.800 There were a lot of
00:34:20.640 people who publicly
00:34:22.160 and to their friends
00:34:23.200 have said, I
00:34:24.280 understand this issue.
00:34:26.020 It's basic evolution.
00:34:28.080 If you put
00:34:28.620 evolutionary pressure
00:34:29.660 on the normal
00:34:31.400 virus, it will give
00:34:32.960 an advantage to
00:34:33.900 the variant.
00:34:35.280 Boom, Scott, I
00:34:36.500 just explained it.
00:34:38.000 Evolution 101.
00:34:39.680 Just apply it to
00:34:40.520 this situation and
00:34:41.520 you're done.
00:34:42.560 Anybody can
00:34:43.160 understand this.
00:34:44.380 Evolution is
00:34:45.200 survival of the
00:34:45.960 fittest.
00:34:46.800 The fittest variant
00:34:48.000 will be the one
00:34:48.740 that can get
00:34:49.160 through the
00:34:49.660 vaccination, right?
00:34:52.680 Pretty logical.
00:34:54.640 Okay, here's my
00:34:55.640 view of the world.
00:34:56.880 My view of the
00:34:57.640 world is that when
00:34:58.280 people realize they
00:34:59.180 couldn't explain how
00:35:01.340 a vaccination makes
00:35:02.500 a variant worse,
00:35:04.340 that they spun into
00:35:05.560 cognitive dissonance.
00:35:07.240 And when you look at
00:35:08.020 my tweet and you see
00:35:09.120 the comments, you'll
00:35:10.380 see that it's all
00:35:10.960 word salad.
00:35:12.740 But it'll be word
00:35:14.620 salad you think
00:35:15.360 makes sense.
00:35:16.880 Because the person
00:35:17.660 who wrote it thinks
00:35:18.420 it makes sense.
00:35:19.500 Let me give you
00:35:20.060 some.
00:35:20.400 I know you're
00:35:20.920 skeptical.
00:35:21.920 I'm going to read
00:35:22.480 you some of the
00:35:23.120 explanations of
00:35:24.220 people who are
00:35:24.740 very smart, by the
00:35:25.780 way.
00:35:26.380 So everybody who
00:35:27.180 gave these
00:35:28.100 explanations of how
00:35:29.280 evolution would
00:35:30.780 cause the variants
00:35:32.520 to be dominant,
00:35:33.660 they're smart
00:35:34.240 people.
00:35:34.580 but they're
00:35:37.060 showing all the
00:35:37.640 tells of cognitive
00:35:38.520 dissonance.
00:35:39.640 I'll give you some
00:35:40.120 examples.
00:35:41.020 Well, so far, let's
00:35:42.240 start with this
00:35:42.820 whiteboard.
00:35:44.080 Let's say there are
00:35:45.040 two situations.
00:35:46.560 There's a person with
00:35:47.800 no vaccination and a
00:35:48.960 person who's
00:35:49.400 vaccinated.
00:35:50.520 Let's say the
00:35:51.160 non-vaccinated person
00:35:53.180 gets the regular
00:35:54.680 alpha virus, but it
00:35:58.780 mutates inside them,
00:36:00.500 and the mutation is a
00:36:02.000 new variant, and then
00:36:03.060 it spreads.
00:36:03.580 Everybody agrees
00:36:05.060 that can happen,
00:36:06.620 right?
00:36:07.420 That it can happen,
00:36:08.780 that you can get the
00:36:09.600 regular virus, but it
00:36:11.460 mutates inside the
00:36:12.560 person, and then what
00:36:14.020 comes out the other
00:36:14.820 end is a new variant,
00:36:16.140 and then that variant
00:36:16.940 could spread.
00:36:17.840 That's if you don't
00:36:18.600 have a vaccination.
00:36:20.360 But what if you do
00:36:21.220 have a vaccination?
00:36:23.000 Well, in that case,
00:36:24.120 the alpha virus goes
00:36:26.300 in, it mutates, and
00:36:29.060 then a new variant
00:36:29.760 comes out, and it
00:36:31.300 spreads.
00:36:31.680 What was the
00:36:33.560 difference between the
00:36:34.360 vaccinated person and
00:36:35.460 the no vaccinated
00:36:36.160 person?
00:36:38.160 Nothing.
00:36:39.580 Because both of them
00:36:40.660 have the virus in them,
00:36:42.480 both of them can spread
00:36:43.420 it.
00:36:45.040 There's no difference.
00:36:46.840 So now, everybody who
00:36:47.900 is positive there's a
00:36:48.800 difference has to
00:36:50.240 explain this, and that
00:36:53.280 triggers cognitive
00:36:54.160 dissonance.
00:36:55.220 Now, let me say as
00:36:56.340 clearly as possible, I
00:36:58.700 don't know if
00:36:59.340 vaccinations cause more
00:37:01.620 variants.
00:37:02.920 I don't know.
00:37:04.080 I mean, I legitimately
00:37:04.820 don't know, and I'm not
00:37:06.460 sure I even am biased in
00:37:08.480 one direction.
00:37:09.700 All I do know is that
00:37:11.480 when people try to
00:37:12.220 explain it, they're
00:37:13.380 spinning into cognitive
00:37:14.840 dissonance.
00:37:15.620 That I do know.
00:37:16.800 So I can say that with
00:37:17.680 great confidence.
00:37:18.680 It's something I study.
00:37:20.160 So let me give you some
00:37:20.840 examples.
00:37:21.200 Again, these are smart
00:37:24.140 people with smart
00:37:25.000 explanations.
00:37:29.280 A vaccine which targets
00:37:30.920 a specific part of a
00:37:32.200 virus will mean that
00:37:33.440 small mutations in the
00:37:34.620 virus can survive, while
00:37:36.440 the targeted virus
00:37:37.480 cannot.
00:37:39.080 Since viruses are
00:37:40.260 mutating all the time,
00:37:41.460 eventually one of these
00:37:42.360 mutants, aka variants,
00:37:44.640 will become dominant.
00:37:46.460 How'd that happen?
00:37:48.300 How did one of them
00:37:49.220 become dominant?
00:37:51.200 Just by being more
00:37:52.420 viral, right?
00:37:53.880 In my example, the
00:37:55.420 vaxxed or the
00:37:56.140 unvaccinated person,
00:37:58.080 which of these cases
00:37:59.440 is there going to be
00:38:00.900 more variants?
00:38:02.380 Well, I would say that
00:38:03.300 the vaccinated person
00:38:04.460 has less virus to begin
00:38:06.140 with and less chances
00:38:07.220 spreading it.
00:38:08.780 So I would think there
00:38:09.880 would be fewer variants
00:38:10.820 if you got vaccinated.
00:38:13.180 I don't know that
00:38:14.000 that's true.
00:38:14.860 I'm just saying that's
00:38:15.660 where the logic takes
00:38:16.540 it with the limited
00:38:17.980 information I have.
00:38:19.640 So here's my question.
00:38:21.200 What would make the
00:38:22.700 variant survive?
00:38:25.720 And I'm hearing things
00:38:26.820 like, well, the old
00:38:28.420 virus and the new
00:38:29.600 variant are fighting it
00:38:31.220 out, and one is
00:38:33.000 compelled.
00:38:35.460 Nothing compels the
00:38:36.420 virus.
00:38:37.880 If you have two viruses
00:38:39.240 in you, they both would
00:38:40.620 spread.
00:38:41.560 If you had the delta,
00:38:42.580 it spreads.
00:38:43.020 If you have the other
00:38:43.600 one, it spreads.
00:38:44.140 So I can see why there
00:38:45.440 would be more...
00:38:48.140 Well, actually, there's
00:38:49.680 just no mechanism
00:38:50.500 described here.
00:38:51.860 Now, then other people
00:38:54.780 use analogies.
00:38:57.640 But the analogies fall
00:38:58.740 apart.
00:38:59.060 I'll give you one
00:38:59.560 analogy that was used.
00:39:00.980 If you're trying to
00:39:01.680 breed small dogs, let's
00:39:03.720 say you kill all the big
00:39:04.700 dogs, and then you breed
00:39:05.980 the small ones, and then
00:39:07.580 you do the same round
00:39:08.640 again.
00:39:09.200 Whatever the largest
00:39:10.580 puppies are, you kill
00:39:11.740 all of them, and then
00:39:13.360 only small puppies grow
00:39:14.820 up, and then they have
00:39:15.620 babies, and they're
00:39:16.280 small, right?
00:39:17.080 So that's the analogy.
00:39:18.900 So the virus would be
00:39:20.320 like that.
00:39:22.620 No, it wouldn't, because
00:39:24.260 the virus doesn't kill
00:39:25.240 all puppies.
00:39:26.520 The virus doesn't kill
00:39:28.060 all anything.
00:39:29.320 It just reduces it.
00:39:31.060 So the analogy would be
00:39:32.900 if you were trying to
00:39:33.860 breed small puppies, you
00:39:36.200 take all puppies and
00:39:37.200 kill 10% of them.
00:39:40.140 How does that help?
00:39:41.740 So the analogy just
00:39:43.220 falls apart, because
00:39:44.760 there's always some
00:39:45.700 difference in the
00:39:46.400 analogy from the
00:39:47.360 original, and it's a
00:39:48.020 big difference.
00:39:49.520 So there's that.
00:39:50.340 All right, so some of
00:39:51.060 you in the comments are
00:39:51.760 saying survival of the
00:39:53.740 fittest.
00:39:54.780 How many of you in the
00:39:56.020 comments think that
00:39:57.640 survival of the fittest
00:39:59.060 can explain why the big
00:40:01.580 variants get out past the
00:40:03.800 vaccines, and the weaker
00:40:06.060 ones don't?
00:40:06.740 Is it survival of the
00:40:07.700 fittest?
00:40:08.380 Because that's the thing,
00:40:09.460 right?
00:40:09.640 You've all studied
00:40:10.280 evolution.
00:40:11.640 Survival of the fittest.
00:40:13.940 How many of you know
00:40:14.900 that survival of the
00:40:15.780 fittest is not science,
00:40:18.260 and that it's not
00:40:19.060 evolution, and that
00:40:20.680 survival of the fittest
00:40:21.720 doesn't exist?
00:40:23.400 How many of you know
00:40:24.100 that?
00:40:25.000 How many of you know
00:40:25.940 that the theory of
00:40:26.700 evolution does not
00:40:27.880 include survival of the
00:40:29.880 fittest?
00:40:30.700 That's completely
00:40:31.540 debunked.
00:40:33.000 How many of you knew
00:40:33.940 that?
00:40:36.900 Somebody was about to
00:40:38.260 say that.
00:40:39.100 And do you know who
00:40:39.760 debunked it?
00:40:41.480 Stephen Jay Gould.
00:40:43.500 I think probably the
00:40:45.120 top evolutionary
00:40:46.040 biologist in the
00:40:47.120 country.
00:40:47.880 I think he's passed
00:40:48.580 away now.
00:40:49.540 But it's debunked by
00:40:51.660 the top evolutionary
00:40:52.820 evolution scientist,
00:40:54.860 and agreed by all of
00:40:56.480 science.
00:40:58.740 There's nobody in the
00:41:00.160 evolution field who
00:41:02.660 thinks survival of the
00:41:04.860 fittest is a thing.
00:41:06.600 Did you know that?
00:41:08.580 Because so many of you
00:41:09.460 said, well, it's
00:41:09.980 survival of the fittest.
00:41:11.200 You just apply it to
00:41:12.100 the virus.
00:41:13.200 But it doesn't exist
00:41:14.140 anywhere.
00:41:15.140 It's not a thing.
00:41:17.380 Most people think it
00:41:18.280 is.
00:41:18.480 It's sort of like people
00:41:19.740 believe that Trump said,
00:41:21.020 you know, the Nazis were
00:41:22.620 fine people.
00:41:23.800 People think that Trump
00:41:24.920 said drink bleach.
00:41:26.280 It just didn't happen.
00:41:27.920 None of those things
00:41:28.600 happened.
00:41:29.260 And there's no such
00:41:30.700 thing as survival of the
00:41:32.620 fittest.
00:41:33.000 It doesn't exist.
00:41:35.380 Do you know what does
00:41:36.060 exist instead?
00:41:38.100 Survival of things that
00:41:39.100 didn't die.
00:41:40.580 It's a big difference.
00:41:42.460 Right?
00:41:42.900 So if you had a species
00:41:44.980 that was just perfectly
00:41:46.560 well-suited, but then
00:41:47.780 let's say a tsunami
00:41:52.440 kills everybody, was that
00:41:55.740 group unfit?
00:41:57.340 No, they just had bad
00:41:58.340 luck.
00:41:58.620 There was a tsunami.
00:41:59.820 It got them all.
00:42:00.420 So there's luck, and
00:42:03.680 there's survival of things
00:42:04.660 that survived, but that's
00:42:05.740 it.
00:42:06.460 There's just survival of
00:42:07.520 things that survived.
00:42:08.760 So in the world of
00:42:10.080 survival of things that
00:42:11.340 survive, which is the
00:42:12.740 whole explanation, just
00:42:14.160 some things survive.
00:42:15.460 They get lucky.
00:42:16.400 That's it.
00:42:18.080 No, it's not semantics.
00:42:20.020 It's not even close to
00:42:21.380 just being semantics.
00:42:22.480 If you don't see the
00:42:23.160 difference between
00:42:24.360 survival of the fittest
00:42:25.840 and survival of the
00:42:27.660 random, you're missing a
00:42:29.720 really big point.
00:42:31.020 I'm saying that the way
00:42:32.060 we evolve is survival of
00:42:33.780 the random.
00:42:34.900 It's not the fittest.
00:42:37.320 Sometimes it is, but it's
00:42:39.340 coincidence.
00:42:41.340 All right.
00:42:43.340 So it's not so much a
00:42:44.480 natural selection.
00:42:45.640 It's just chance would be a
00:42:47.380 better way to say it.
00:42:48.180 It's just chance.
00:42:48.740 So I don't see how chance
00:42:50.900 can be part of the
00:42:52.620 explanation.
00:42:54.600 But we are warned by
00:42:57.080 Ian Martises that there's
00:42:59.600 a bigger risk called
00:43:01.660 original antigenic sin.
00:43:03.560 How many of you have
00:43:04.160 heard of that?
00:43:05.920 Raise your hands if you've
00:43:07.240 ever heard of original
00:43:08.800 antigenic sin.
00:43:10.640 I'm going to try to
00:43:11.640 explain it, but forgive me
00:43:13.820 because I don't understand
00:43:15.120 this field well enough.
00:43:16.340 So I'll give you the dumb
00:43:17.640 person's, you know, the
00:43:18.640 idiot's definition.
00:43:20.580 It goes like this.
00:43:21.720 If your immune system has
00:43:23.040 been trained against a
00:43:24.820 particular attacker, let's
00:43:26.560 say a virus, you have a
00:43:30.020 kind of immunity memory.
00:43:33.100 And that immunity memory
00:43:34.480 could work against you as
00:43:37.360 well as for you.
00:43:38.200 And the way it could work
00:43:38.920 against you is that when a
00:43:40.780 new virus comes in, a
00:43:41.980 variant, let's say, your
00:43:43.800 immune system says, oh, I
00:43:44.960 know exactly what to do.
00:43:46.420 And it ramps up to fight
00:43:47.620 the virus, but it's a
00:43:49.140 different virus.
00:43:50.160 It's just one that's like
00:43:51.260 it.
00:43:52.080 Now your immune system is
00:43:53.360 all ramped up to fight the
00:43:55.140 wrong thing.
00:43:56.520 It's actually working
00:43:57.540 overtime on the wrong
00:43:58.460 thing because it said, I
00:43:59.640 think that virus is a lot
00:44:00.820 like that other one.
00:44:01.780 So it goes to work on the
00:44:03.040 wrong virus.
00:44:04.380 And then the right one just
00:44:05.640 has a, you know, clear
00:44:06.860 channel.
00:44:07.920 Now, apparently that's a
00:44:10.040 real thing which has
00:44:10.880 happened in the past in
00:44:11.860 different situations.
00:44:13.200 So just know that that's
00:44:15.040 out there.
00:44:16.300 All right.
00:44:17.520 I don't know what the
00:44:18.540 size of that risk is
00:44:19.700 actually.
00:44:22.720 And that is what I
00:44:24.240 wanted to talk about
00:44:25.060 today.
00:44:26.620 I'm going to run and do
00:44:27.560 something else.
00:44:28.840 And I hope you don't
00:44:30.920 hate the persuasion
00:44:32.600 lessons in the context of
00:44:34.020 these boring topics like
00:44:35.300 vaccinations and masks and
00:44:37.700 stuff like that.
00:44:38.360 I think I think the
00:44:39.220 persuasion stuff is
00:44:40.100 interesting and if you
00:44:43.200 don't let me know.
00:44:44.300 But I think that you
00:44:45.020 learn something when you
00:44:45.900 see the persuasion
00:44:46.960 element separate from the
00:44:48.560 science.
00:44:49.260 All right.
00:44:49.520 That's it for now.