Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1479 Scott Adams： Let's Laugh at the Headlines and Learn Some Things About Persuasion at the Same Time

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, good morning and welcome to Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:07.560 Best time of the day, every single day.

00:00:10.760 And today is going to be a special one.

00:00:13.580 How special?

00:00:14.560 Oh, wow.

00:00:17.060 I'm not even going to talk about masks and vaccinations until maybe, maybe the very end.

00:00:23.480 So if you love that stuff, I'm only going to talk about one point of logic.

00:00:26.920 But before then, let's enjoy the other stuff, the reason you come here.

00:00:32.200 We're talking about the funny news and the persuasion filter on it.

00:00:37.420 But all you need to make this an extra special day is a cupper mugger, a glass of tanker, chelps, a stand, a canteen jugger flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:46.040 Fill it with your favorite liquid and I like coffee.

00:00:49.480 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:52.560 The dopamine of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:55.740 Accept the Afghanistan withdrawal.

00:00:58.620 Let's call this simultaneous sip and it happens now.

00:01:00.920 Go.

00:01:05.220 Ah, yeah, it's a little extra good today.

00:01:08.220 A little extra delicious.

00:01:10.520 Well, here's news.

00:01:13.380 Let's call this building block news.

00:01:16.500 Building block news.

00:01:18.720 It's news that by itself doesn't seem that big.

00:01:21.600 But it's part of a larger structure.

00:01:25.480 And here's the news.

00:01:26.720 There's now the first autonomous shipping ship.

00:01:31.980 That's what they call them.

00:01:33.480 It's a ship that ships things.

00:01:35.740 So that'd be a shipping ship. 0.95

00:01:37.620 You could call it a container ship if you like.

00:01:40.000 But it's electric.

00:01:41.380 And it's unmanned.

00:01:43.220 Or, as we say, unpersoned.

00:01:45.700 And it's the first one.

00:01:49.140 So that you're going to monitor it remotely.

00:01:51.080 And this thing will use its electricity to go around in a very green way and not pollute the world.

00:01:59.060 Now, why is this a big deal?

00:02:00.220 Well, if container ships become electric and autonomous, and we're already seeing that there are plans in maybe a year or two to have the first electric commercial airliners.

00:02:13.740 So if you could get rid of carbon fuel on container ships and air travel, it's a pretty big deal.

00:02:22.420 It's a pretty big deal.

00:02:23.460 So it's a little story that's part of a bigger story.

00:02:25.740 I do expect that all of our automobiles will be electric and autonomous fairly soon.

00:02:34.520 You know, when you drive, have you noticed that the least important part of the car process is the human?

00:02:41.320 Like, all of the error of an automobile is all built around the fact that people want to feel like they're driving.

00:02:48.500 Because you could easily get rid of that part, and it would be much safer.

00:02:51.620 I mean, we're already at the place, pretty sure.

00:02:54.320 I think Elon Musk would probably agree with this statement.

00:02:58.120 Don't know.

00:02:59.220 But I think we're already at the point where we could build autonomous cars that would be safer than human-driven cars.

00:03:05.140 Here's the thing that I think every time I'm driving and I'm using my navigation.

00:03:10.440 So I'm driving along, and I'm thinking to myself, hey, look at me.

00:03:14.040 I'm in charge of driving my car with my free will and everything.

00:03:18.000 And then my GPS says, turn right at the next intersection.

00:03:22.800 And then I turn right, because that's where I want to go.

00:03:25.720 That's why I set the GPS navigation for that.

00:03:29.040 But the car already knew it needed to take the right turn.

00:03:33.280 And the car knew where the right turn was.

00:03:35.860 In fact, the car knew where the right turn was before I did.

00:03:38.540 The only weakness in the system is me.

00:03:42.660 I have to listen to it and then execute.

00:03:44.800 If you could get me out of that, it's got to be a better system.

00:03:49.100 So I'm driving, but I'm thinking I am the just ridiculous part of this system.

00:03:54.760 If you looked at the whole system of buying a car, getting it on the highway, building highways,

00:03:59.940 making this whole transportation network, the human part is the stupid part.

00:04:10.900 Like, you would never engineer that into your system.

00:04:13.260 But because we think we're special, we do.

00:04:16.620 So it's all going to be electric and autonomous soon.

00:04:20.100 Here is the best story in the news, but let's call it a sign of the times.

00:04:25.980 It's a sign of the times.

00:04:27.120 This is the actual headline on Fox News.

00:04:31.140 Woman banned from zoo after unhealthy relationship with chimp.

00:04:36.240 He loves me, she said.

00:04:39.200 And when they banned her, she was quite sad.

00:04:41.840 She says, it's all I have.

00:04:43.800 And she would visit the zoo on a very regular basis for years.

00:04:48.280 And she thought that she had fallen in love with one of the chimps. 0.95

00:04:51.960 So one of the chimps would come over and they would blow kisses to each other and interact.

00:04:56.340 But the zoo thought that she was ruining the chimp.

00:05:00.320 She was making the chimp too much like a human. 1.00

00:05:04.180 And it sort of ruined the chimp's interaction. 0.92

00:05:06.600 And so they banned her from the zoo.

00:05:09.020 But that's not the big story.

00:05:11.880 Here's the big story.

00:05:12.960 If you're a man, don't you already have enough competition for human women? 1.00

00:05:20.480 I mean, it's hard enough.

00:05:22.500 You know, if you're not that good looking, you know, maybe your job isn't that good.

00:05:26.960 It's really hard to get a girlfriend, get a wife. 1.00

00:05:31.020 And that's just competing against humans.

00:05:34.860 You know, when you're competing against other human males, the bar is pretty low, right?

00:05:40.640 I mean, men kind of create, you know, not really the highest standard in the world.

00:05:46.540 So competing against other men, I always think, well, I think I've got a shot against those other men.

00:05:51.980 But if I have to compete against chimps too, can you imagine competing against a chimp? 1.00

00:05:59.520 You get a chimp, that thing is never going to talk back. 1.00

00:06:03.520 The woman will be like, and will the chimp say, oh, you know, the game's on? 1.00

00:06:09.520 No, no.

00:06:10.880 That chimp will just groom you and listen to your story. 1.00

00:06:14.320 You can complain all day and that chimp will just go, or whatever chimps make. 1.00

00:06:19.200 So I'm very unhappy that I will someday have to compete, possibly, with chimps. 1.00

00:06:27.140 Have you ever had the experience of having an ex who changed sides after you were with them?

00:06:35.420 In other words, have you ever had a, if you're a man, have you ever had a girlfriend who,

00:06:40.280 after you dated her, she decided to become a lesbian? 1.00

00:06:44.660 I've had that experience.

00:06:46.020 In college, there was a young lady who was very inexperienced and wanted me to change that situation, and I did.

00:06:57.260 And after I changed that situation for her, she thought about it and she thought, you know,

00:07:02.840 I think I could just do women after this. 0.96

00:07:06.460 Now, I like to think it was going to happen anyway.

00:07:09.600 I'd like to think the natural arc of her life was, she was born lesbian and she just needed to find out. 0.97

00:07:18.920 And, you know, once she found out, it was going to happen one way or another.

00:07:23.000 That's one explanation.

00:07:25.660 The other possibility is that interacting with me was so bad, she said to herself,

00:07:32.040 I think I could go my whole life without doing this again.

00:07:34.900 So let's just say that wasn't my biggest success, but I like to think it would have happened anyway.

00:07:43.440 Kamala Harris, her flight from Singapore was delayed because of Havana syndrome.

00:07:52.240 Have you heard of it?

00:07:53.720 Havana syndrome.

00:07:54.740 And that's where they speculate, the professionals do, that there's some kind of secret sonic weapon,

00:08:05.200 some kind of rival or terrorist is shooting at embassies and making people sick.

00:08:10.500 It's hurting their brains in some horrible way.

00:08:14.480 And so now there's a report that this is happening in Singapore.

00:08:18.700 Now, what did I tell you about Havana syndrome and the secret sonic weapon?

00:08:27.100 What was my prediction the first time we heard about this in Havana?

00:08:32.420 I told you it's not real.

00:08:36.360 That whatever it is, it's not going to be a secret sonic weapon.

00:08:40.180 I mean, it might be real damage and it might be a real phenomenon of some sort.

00:08:44.200 But I'll tell you what it's not, a secret sonic weapon.

00:08:49.180 Now, if I'm wrong on this one, nothing would make me more surprised.

00:08:54.380 And I like this prediction because I'm the only one, right?

00:08:57.640 I'm the only one with this prediction.

00:08:59.640 So how's my prediction doing that this story was always bullshit from moment one?

00:09:05.720 How's that prediction look?

00:09:07.220 Well, here's, apparently there's another attack in Singapore.

00:09:11.140 So does that mean I'm wrong because these attacks keep happening?

00:09:17.420 Well, there's a little detail about this story that maybe you missed.

00:09:21.760 That the two people who had these anomalous health outcomes that has been called Havana syndrome,

00:09:29.480 turns out they were working at home.

00:09:31.140 That's right.

00:09:35.560 The diplomats who had this secret sonic weapon attack them were in Singapore and working at home.

00:09:46.480 So apparently this terrorist who has the secret sonic weapon tracked them down at their homes just to zap them at home.

00:09:55.360 Because that's exactly what you would do if you were a terrorist and you had the wherewithal to take your secret sonic weapon

00:10:03.060 and go all over the world.

00:10:05.620 It's been in Canada.

00:10:06.880 It's been in Havana.

00:10:08.640 And now it's in Singapore.

00:10:10.040 So you've got the wherewithal to get into all of these countries with your secret sonic weapon.

00:10:15.320 And your best bet was to hunt people down one by one at their home office.

00:10:21.240 No.

00:10:26.340 No.

00:10:27.740 It's not happening.

00:10:29.460 I don't know what's happening.

00:10:31.000 Maybe some kind of phenomenon for real.

00:10:33.160 But it's not a secret sonic weapon.

00:10:35.860 Can we just agree that we've debunked that now?

00:10:39.720 Because there's nobody with...

00:10:41.520 There's no terrorist with a secret sonic weapon who's hunting people down at their home office.

00:10:46.820 That's not happening.

00:10:50.080 All right.

00:10:51.240 Somebody's saying it's a satellite.

00:10:56.040 I don't know about that.

00:10:58.200 My favorite tweet of the day from Michael Malice.

00:11:01.260 If you don't follow Michael Malice on Twitter, you're missing some real good entertainment.

00:11:08.680 Those of you who follow him are probably already laughing.

00:11:12.820 The funny thing about him is that he doesn't take any prisoners.

00:11:17.760 He's got a point of view that's probably different from yours.

00:11:20.120 But, man, does he hold that point of view.

00:11:24.060 And he does a hilarious job of doing it.

00:11:27.600 But anyway, his tweet today was, quote,

00:11:30.860 At this rate, Saddam Hussein will be back in power by Ramadan. 0.96

00:11:34.820 That's a pretty good tweet.

00:11:39.620 Pretty good tweet.

00:11:41.040 Saddam Hussein will be back in power by Ramadan. 0.99

00:11:44.500 All right.

00:11:44.900 Let me surprise you by saying that Biden might be doing a really good job on persuasion with this Afghanistan thing.

00:11:57.920 Now, I'm not saying it's not botched.

00:12:00.760 It does look to me just like it looks to you and apparently everybody else in the world.

00:12:04.500 It looks like the Afghanistan withdrawal is botched.

00:12:08.780 But that doesn't mean every single thing that Biden is doing is completely wrong.

00:12:13.280 Might be.

00:12:14.500 We can find out every single thing he's doing is wrong.

00:12:17.060 But I'm going to point out one thing that you think is wrong.

00:12:20.000 The news is reporting it as a mistake.

00:12:23.120 But in my opinion, clearly isn't.

00:12:25.240 And it goes like this.

00:12:26.340 So I guess Biden is telling people, oh, yeah, we'll get those Americans out by August 31st.

00:12:33.300 And at the same time he's saying that in public,

00:12:36.380 apparently Congress was being briefed that that's not going to happen by Biden's own people.

00:12:43.640 So what's happening?

00:12:45.400 Does Biden have dementia?

00:12:47.040 He's out of the loop, doesn't know what's happening.

00:12:49.000 So why is Biden saying, oh, yeah, we'll get out of there by August 31st?

00:12:52.780 Well, all the people who know what they're talking about say, no, there's no way.

00:12:57.360 So is that a Biden mistake?

00:13:00.440 What do you think?

00:13:01.660 Mistake?

00:13:04.140 I don't think so.

00:13:05.920 I don't think so.

00:13:07.440 Here's why I think he's playing it exactly right.

00:13:10.960 And I'll be even doubly offensive by saying Trump might have done this.

00:13:17.640 Right?

00:13:17.880 That's a big stretch because we don't know what he would or would not have done.

00:13:20.960 But I feel this is very Trumpian, and I'll tell you why.

00:13:26.360 Because Biden is talking to the Taliban.

00:13:29.360 He's not talking to you.

00:13:31.520 When Biden talks to the Taliban, he says, yes, you've got a deadline.

00:13:35.200 We're absolutely going to meet that.

00:13:37.400 And what does that do to the Taliban?

00:13:40.140 Makes the Taliban feel like they're getting what they want.

00:13:43.760 So are they going to be more or less flexible about letting people out between now and August 31st?

00:13:49.680 Because in theory, they would be more flexible because they're getting everything they want.

00:13:55.620 As soon as they stopped doing that, giving us everything they want, you'd kind of expect that Biden would have to stop being as accommodating.

00:14:03.900 So I have a feeling that Biden is talking to the Taliban, basically treating them with the respect they haven't earned,

00:14:12.180 because it's going to make it easier to get our hostages out, hostages, our Americans and Afghan allies.

00:14:19.700 It's easier to get them out if the Taliban thinks they're winning.

00:14:22.880 Now, as long as the news is correctly reporting, and Biden would have known this,

00:14:31.020 Biden would have known that the news will tell the United States public it's not going to happen by August 31st.

00:14:37.740 It's kind of perfect.

00:14:39.640 Because you, the public, are completely informed.

00:14:42.420 All right, there's no mystery here.

00:14:44.140 We're not going to get them out by August 31st.

00:14:46.500 You know, things just don't work that smoothly.

00:14:48.140 There's always going to be somebody left.

00:14:49.480 So you're getting the correct, accurate story.

00:14:54.280 And you're even getting it through the Biden administration, because they briefed Congress, and it wasn't secret.

00:14:59.620 So Congress immediately ran to their microphones and said,

00:15:02.680 hey, the people who know what they're talking about say we can't do this.

00:15:06.640 So you got the accurate news.

00:15:08.200 That's good.

00:15:09.180 You like accurate news.

00:15:11.240 And the Taliban got a different message.

00:15:14.620 They said, hey, the government of the United States is going to try to meet your deadline.

00:15:17.880 I feel like he nailed it.

00:15:22.100 I don't think this looks like a case of dimension to me.

00:15:26.420 This looks more like somebody playing two different games at the same time and winning both of them.

00:15:32.820 Now, I'm not saying that the withdrawal is a success.

00:15:36.400 It looks like it's a pretty botched situation.

00:15:39.080 But in that narrow sense, his two different messages at the same time to two different audiences,

00:15:45.080 it looks spot on.

00:15:46.360 I think I might have even recommended it.

00:15:49.580 If I'd been there, I think I might have recommended he did it exactly that way.

00:15:53.860 I don't know.

00:15:54.920 So we can't know for sure if that's why anything is happening.

00:15:59.160 But it would be a lucky accident if they didn't do it intentionally.

00:16:03.920 The Taliban, meanwhile, is not only trying to hunt down people who helped the Americans,

00:16:13.520 but in at least one case, and I feel there's a big risk there'll be more of this,

00:16:18.640 killing the family members of the people they're looking for.

00:16:21.980 So if the family members won't give up the family member, you know, and tell you where they are,

00:16:27.820 they kill the family members.

00:16:30.120 So if you're not trying hard enough to get out of Afghanistan with your whole family,

00:16:36.660 maybe you ought to try harder.

00:16:38.380 And I suspect that there will be a number of Afghans, and this is just a horrible thought, 1.00

00:16:42.560 there will be a number of Afghans who helped America who will either surrender and be killed, 0.99

00:16:49.420 knowing that they'll be killed.

00:16:52.620 Let's get rid of Dr. Johnson. 0.52

00:16:54.320 He's just like my mascot.

00:16:57.680 Goodbye.

00:17:00.000 He's like my biggest troll.

00:17:02.900 I have to ban him every day.

00:17:04.400 But I've got a feeling that you'll see Afghans either killing themselves or surrendering to be killed 1.00

00:17:13.160 so that their families are not killed.

00:17:15.940 I mean, I can't imagine anything more horrible than what's going to happen after the Taliban takes complete control.

00:17:22.880 All right, in the category of Trump was right, one of my better predictions,

00:17:27.060 which was that as days went by, Trump would look more right.

00:17:31.880 But the history would give him a much better grade than the news was giving him while he was in office.

00:17:40.640 And here we go again.

00:17:42.180 The Supreme Court ruled against the Biden administration

00:17:45.140 in its attempt to end the Remain in Mexico program.

00:17:49.160 So Trump had that deal where the immigrants could be,

00:17:52.420 the illegal immigrants could be kept in Mexico.

00:17:55.480 Biden tried to end it.

00:17:57.120 And the Supreme Court, I can't understand the details of this,

00:18:01.140 but they basically kept it in place.

00:18:03.960 Now, that doesn't mean it'll happen, does it?

00:18:07.320 Does that mean we'll actually go back to remain in place?

00:18:10.000 I feel like that's not going to happen,

00:18:11.440 so I don't know if this story has any importance.

00:18:14.600 Because, I don't know,

00:18:17.740 I just don't see that you could force the government to do this

00:18:20.700 if they don't want to do it.

00:18:21.640 I feel like Biden will have more options to not do it.

00:18:25.720 But,

00:18:26.600 Supreme Court ruled with Trump.

00:18:31.180 And I think we can see that Trump was better on immigration,

00:18:34.260 probably would have been better on Afghanistan,

00:18:36.520 or we believe it.

00:18:38.060 You know, no way to know.

00:18:43.380 Alright.

00:18:45.260 Who predicted this?

00:18:46.840 Alright, let's see how many of you, years ago,

00:18:50.640 predicted this.

00:18:52.620 That China's birth rate is so low

00:18:55.740 that they've got a problem.

00:18:58.340 So,

00:18:59.800 your,

00:19:01.540 did anybody think that China

00:19:03.100 would stop reproducing?

00:19:05.540 Now we know

00:19:06.500 that China had that two,

00:19:09.560 or is it one child,

00:19:10.560 or two child policy,

00:19:11.680 the one child policy,

00:19:12.660 where they were trying to stop overpopulation?

00:19:17.600 Did you ever think

00:19:18.560 that China would go from

00:19:19.740 trying to stop

00:19:21.400 growth of population

00:19:23.060 that's too much

00:19:24.120 to having a crisis of too few?

00:19:28.720 Somebody says

00:19:29.500 Musk predicted it.

00:19:30.720 But did he predict it

00:19:31.860 20 years ago,

00:19:32.880 is what I'm asking.

00:19:33.960 It's the 20 years ago

00:19:35.200 that's the hard part.

00:19:36.620 I think everybody predicted it

00:19:38.900 in the last five years.

00:19:41.040 Because the data showed it.

00:19:42.660 So now China is saying

00:19:44.020 that you can have up to three kids,

00:19:45.780 and the Chinese women 0.96

00:19:47.220 are saying,

00:19:47.840 no thanks.

00:19:49.340 Hey, you can have three kids now.

00:19:51.640 Uh,

00:19:52.280 no thanks.

00:19:53.700 Now here's the thing.

00:19:56.660 Play this out to the future.

00:19:59.700 Let's say China 0.96

00:20:00.560 becomes

00:20:01.600 an increasingly crappy place

00:20:03.860 to live and reproduce.

00:20:05.220 And let's say

00:20:06.640 that the Chinese people

00:20:08.100 don't have enough money

00:20:09.140 in their economy

00:20:10.760 that want three kids. 1.00

00:20:12.660 So let's say

00:20:13.800 that China's 0.96

00:20:14.540 demographic problem

00:20:16.800 just keeps getting worse.

00:20:19.140 Compare that

00:20:19.880 to the United States.

00:20:21.520 Now I think

00:20:22.300 the birth rate

00:20:23.520 in a lot of

00:20:24.460 industrialized countries

00:20:26.040 is decreasing

00:20:27.160 or going negative.

00:20:28.720 So if the United States

00:20:30.020 did not have immigration,

00:20:32.280 could it

00:20:33.320 remain

00:20:34.100 a top country?

00:20:36.060 I think the answer

00:20:36.700 is no.

00:20:37.160 because I think

00:20:38.320 the United States

00:20:38.980 would not have

00:20:39.640 a birth rate

00:20:40.460 that would support

00:20:41.880 our dominant economic

00:20:44.040 position into the future.

00:20:45.520 I'm talking 20,

00:20:46.440 30 years into the future.

00:20:48.400 And so,

00:20:49.160 here's the question.

00:20:51.480 Does immigration,

00:20:52.840 and the fact that

00:20:53.560 the United States

00:20:54.340 will always have

00:20:55.220 some form of it,

00:20:56.620 whereas China

00:20:57.380 will probably not,

00:20:58.400 is that a competitive

00:21:00.820 advantage

00:21:01.380 or disadvantage?

00:21:02.500 Go.

00:21:03.520 Now here I'm assuming

00:21:04.540 that we control

00:21:05.440 our immigration

00:21:06.140 so it's not just

00:21:06.960 open borders.

00:21:08.020 I think we're going

00:21:09.380 to go back

00:21:09.780 to a better control.

00:21:12.060 But if the U.S.

00:21:13.160 can bring in

00:21:13.920 good people

00:21:14.800 or just people,

00:21:16.160 you know,

00:21:16.280 just bodies,

00:21:17.560 does that give us

00:21:19.040 an advantage

00:21:19.480 in the long run

00:21:20.080 over China?

00:21:21.940 And I'd be interested,

00:21:23.340 and I'm just,

00:21:23.720 I'm seeing advantage,

00:21:25.800 disadvantage,

00:21:26.620 yes.

00:21:27.960 I think China 0.97

00:21:29.080 is doomed

00:21:30.300 unless they open

00:21:32.120 their borders

00:21:32.600 and I don't

00:21:33.020 see that happening.

00:21:35.000 Do you?

00:21:37.020 And then here's

00:21:38.080 the second part

00:21:38.820 of this

00:21:39.100 and the fun part.

00:21:40.480 As you know,

00:21:41.360 we're in a long-term

00:21:42.320 sort of a cold war

00:21:44.540 with China,

00:21:45.780 meaning that

00:21:46.460 we're trying to,

00:21:47.720 they're trying to

00:21:48.420 persuade our public

00:21:49.660 and we're,

00:21:50.640 they're trying to

00:21:51.220 steal our,

00:21:52.100 you know,

00:21:52.560 digital assets

00:21:53.440 and everything,

00:21:54.560 sending us fentanyl.

00:21:55.620 So they're doing

00:21:56.040 all these things.

00:21:57.780 I don't know

00:21:58.280 what we're doing

00:21:58.800 in return.

00:22:00.280 But I'll tell you

00:22:00.840 what we could do

00:22:01.560 in return.

00:22:02.600 We could persuade

00:22:04.660 Chinese citizens

00:22:05.820 to have fewer kids

00:22:07.100 and it would

00:22:09.000 destroy China 0.84

00:22:09.860 in 30 years.

00:22:11.720 Now,

00:22:12.240 how hard would it be

00:22:13.660 to persuade people

00:22:14.920 to have fewer kids?

00:22:16.960 Not that hard.

00:22:19.700 In terms of things

00:22:21.080 which you can

00:22:21.780 and cannot persuade

00:22:22.700 people to do,

00:22:24.020 that would be

00:22:25.140 one you could.

00:22:26.620 Because we see

00:22:27.460 that people

00:22:27.980 are being persuaded

00:22:28.780 by their,

00:22:29.320 mostly by their

00:22:30.600 economic expectations.

00:22:32.820 So the reason

00:22:33.340 that the Chinese women 0.96

00:22:34.200 are saying no thanks

00:22:35.120 on the three children

00:22:35.920 is they don't think

00:22:36.700 they can afford it.

00:22:38.100 They don't think

00:22:38.460 the economy

00:22:39.000 will allow them

00:22:39.660 to easily have

00:22:40.300 three children.

00:22:41.880 So could you

00:22:42.560 persuade

00:22:43.020 the population

00:22:44.900 of China

00:22:45.440 through indirect means,

00:22:47.620 you know,

00:22:47.960 intel,

00:22:48.860 agencies,

00:22:49.660 etc.

00:22:49.840 Could you persuade

00:22:51.200 Chinese students

00:22:52.120 or the young

00:22:53.220 Chinese people

00:22:53.880 that it's a dumb idea

00:22:55.560 to have three children

00:22:56.380 because you can't

00:22:58.280 afford it?

00:22:59.900 Yeah, you could.

00:23:01.400 As persuadable things,

00:23:03.340 that's pretty persuadable.

00:23:05.140 Now, if you tried

00:23:05.740 to tell them

00:23:06.260 to have no children,

00:23:07.620 good luck, right?

00:23:08.500 That would be

00:23:08.940 working against

00:23:09.640 their biology too hard.

00:23:10.740 You probably

00:23:11.000 couldn't do that.

00:23:11.700 But you could get

00:23:13.040 people from three

00:23:13.920 to two

00:23:14.500 pretty easily, right?

00:23:18.340 You just make it

00:23:19.300 look like having

00:23:19.900 three children

00:23:20.500 is a frickin' nightmare

00:23:21.540 and having two

00:23:23.060 is, yeah,

00:23:23.880 you did your job.

00:23:24.720 You're a good person.

00:23:26.980 So, yes,

00:23:27.800 we could destroy China 0.68

00:23:29.380 with persuasion

00:23:32.120 about how many

00:23:32.820 children they should have.

00:23:34.980 Completely doable.

00:23:36.520 And we could

00:23:37.200 start that today.

00:23:38.020 I mean, you know,

00:23:39.060 it would be

00:23:39.240 a long-term project.

00:23:40.880 But you could destroy

00:23:42.020 the whole economy

00:23:43.260 by telling them

00:23:44.180 to stop having kids.

00:23:45.900 All right.

00:23:47.400 Years ago,

00:23:48.260 I had the following idea

00:23:49.500 for how to solve

00:23:50.720 Afghanistan.

00:23:52.040 I don't remember

00:23:52.820 if I ever said it publicly.

00:23:54.840 So, if anybody

00:23:55.740 ever heard me

00:23:56.260 say it publicly,

00:23:57.380 let me know.

00:23:58.080 And the idea

00:23:58.520 looked like this.

00:23:59.980 You know that anybody

00:24:00.840 who goes into Afghanistan

00:24:01.960 is in trouble, right?

00:24:04.620 So, Russia goes in 0.95

00:24:06.000 and they get, you know,

00:24:06.720 Soviet Union,

00:24:07.740 and they get crushed.

00:24:08.820 They have to leave.

00:24:10.400 United States goes in

00:24:11.600 and it's a debacle.

00:24:13.800 Now, China 0.97

00:24:14.420 is looking to

00:24:15.580 be the big influence.

00:24:17.920 That's what I always

00:24:18.860 wanted to happen.

00:24:19.600 Will the Taliban 0.71

00:24:22.180 operate

00:24:23.100 as freely,

00:24:25.220 let's say,

00:24:25.820 allowing terrorist

00:24:26.700 bases and stuff,

00:24:28.100 if China gets 0.83

00:24:29.040 more of a grip

00:24:29.800 on the country?

00:24:31.120 Because China, 0.98

00:24:32.000 I don't think

00:24:32.480 China's 0.76

00:24:33.000 ambition

00:24:34.920 is to just

00:24:35.620 do business

00:24:36.360 with the Taliban,

00:24:37.260 is it?

00:24:38.240 I think China's 1.00

00:24:39.260 ambition is to

00:24:40.020 dominate Afghanistan.

00:24:42.240 So,

00:24:42.940 if Afghanistan 0.75

00:24:43.600 is a long-range

00:24:45.560 risk

00:24:46.120 to the United States,

00:24:47.380 what's the best

00:24:49.040 way to control it?

00:24:52.180 Give it to China. 0.99

00:24:54.300 Because China 0.94

00:24:55.140 will control

00:24:55.720 the hell out of it.

00:24:57.400 Look at the Uyghurs, 1.00

00:24:58.900 right?

00:24:59.560 It's not good.

00:25:00.980 I'm not suggesting

00:25:01.740 this is moral

00:25:02.520 or ethical.

00:25:04.000 But China

00:25:05.020 could exert

00:25:07.480 enough control

00:25:08.260 over Afghanistan

00:25:09.140 with money

00:25:10.060 and all of their

00:25:11.160 various ways

00:25:11.820 that eventually

00:25:12.840 they would just

00:25:13.480 be able to control

00:25:14.840 whether Afghanistan

00:25:15.880 had any terrorist

00:25:16.780 camps.

00:25:18.300 One way or another.

00:25:19.540 I mean,

00:25:19.780 it might not be

00:25:20.380 militarily.

00:25:21.320 They might just say,

00:25:22.060 well,

00:25:22.900 we're going to stop

00:25:23.860 supporting you

00:25:25.420 financially

00:25:26.120 unless you get rid

00:25:27.720 of those camps

00:25:28.340 because they're

00:25:29.180 a problem for us.

00:25:30.160 It's going to mess

00:25:31.100 up our supply chain.

00:25:33.120 Because once China 0.99

00:25:34.100 gets a supply chain

00:25:35.540 from Afghanistan,

00:25:36.680 let's say it's

00:25:37.300 the rare minerals,

00:25:39.640 they're not going

00:25:40.240 to want to let go

00:25:40.880 of that

00:25:41.240 and they're not going

00:25:42.200 to want the Taliban 0.97

00:25:42.900 to control it.

00:25:44.040 They're going to want

00:25:44.500 to control it themselves.

00:25:45.380 So John says,

00:25:48.440 Scott is wrong

00:25:49.180 on China.

00:25:50.860 How do you know?

00:25:52.340 Can you see the future?

00:25:54.240 Did you know

00:25:54.920 that China would have 0.93

00:25:55.680 a population problem?

00:25:57.240 Did you know

00:25:57.760 the Taliban

00:25:58.220 would take over

00:25:59.020 in weeks?

00:26:00.540 You didn't know

00:26:01.260 any of that stuff.

00:26:02.460 You don't know

00:26:03.020 I'm wrong on China.

00:26:04.920 You just know

00:26:05.680 that I could be.

00:26:07.880 That's why you know.

00:26:09.240 You don't know

00:26:09.900 I'm wrong.

00:26:10.420 You just know

00:26:12.120 I could be.

00:26:12.840 And even I think that.

00:26:14.420 Even I think

00:26:15.000 I could be wrong.

00:26:16.560 But I don't see

00:26:18.880 enough of a strategic

00:26:20.320 advantage for China

00:26:21.500 except for the minerals

00:26:22.500 that maybe doesn't

00:26:25.860 compensate for the fact

00:26:26.980 that they might reduce

00:26:27.860 terrorism there

00:26:28.600 in a way that we couldn't

00:26:29.640 or wouldn't

00:26:30.440 because they'd be

00:26:31.000 more brutal about it.

00:26:32.780 So maybe we're safer

00:26:34.920 if China controls them

00:26:37.700 because China is one risk 0.91

00:26:39.280 whereas China

00:26:40.560 plus the Taliban 0.65

00:26:41.520 breeding terrorists

00:26:42.480 would be two risks.

00:26:44.520 So does it take

00:26:45.220 one risk

00:26:45.800 or does it take

00:26:46.560 two risks

00:26:47.000 and turn it

00:26:47.500 into one risk?

00:26:48.660 It could.

00:26:50.220 What are the chances?

00:26:52.300 Not high.

00:26:53.600 You know

00:26:53.760 not 100%

00:26:54.820 but it could happen.

00:26:58.340 Rasmussen Polls

00:26:59.500 asked

00:26:59.780 is the U.S.

00:27:00.340 safer from terrorist

00:27:01.160 attack

00:27:01.580 than it was

00:27:02.680 before 9-11?

00:27:04.520 What do you think?

00:27:05.680 Are we safer

00:27:06.460 from terrorist attack

00:27:07.500 now?

00:27:08.100 Or before 9-11?

00:27:11.940 Well

00:27:12.540 51%

00:27:13.660 say we're not

00:27:14.580 any safer

00:27:15.180 than before 9-11.

00:27:17.060 That's not good.

00:27:18.780 And 34%

00:27:19.720 say yes

00:27:20.160 we are safer.

00:27:22.300 I don't know

00:27:23.260 that this is

00:27:23.940 a question

00:27:24.600 that anybody

00:27:25.320 really can answer

00:27:26.300 because it only

00:27:27.400 takes one

00:27:28.020 big terrorist attack

00:27:29.340 to wipe out

00:27:30.880 all the average

00:27:31.840 of all the terrorist

00:27:32.840 attacks

00:27:33.260 you know

00:27:33.740 for decades.

00:27:34.420 so

00:27:35.400 I don't know

00:27:36.540 if there's

00:27:36.840 any such thing

00:27:37.400 as an average

00:27:38.100 risk

00:27:38.700 when it comes

00:27:39.580 to terrorism

00:27:40.120 so I'm not sure

00:27:41.400 the question

00:27:41.800 makes complete

00:27:42.460 sense

00:27:42.820 except

00:27:43.240 in how people

00:27:44.380 feel

00:27:44.840 and half

00:27:47.020 of the country

00:27:47.500 feels

00:27:48.000 that we're

00:27:48.920 not any safer.

00:27:49.700 I don't know

00:27:51.160 that they're

00:27:51.480 wrong

00:27:51.820 are they?

00:27:53.820 But we've had

00:27:54.920 you know

00:27:56.000 knock on wood

00:27:56.720 an unusually

00:27:59.400 good run

00:28:00.340 without terrorism

00:28:01.200 I have to think

00:28:02.240 that the complete

00:28:02.960 lack of

00:28:03.720 personal privacy

00:28:06.000 is what's

00:28:06.740 stopping all

00:28:07.240 the terror

00:28:07.580 attacks.

00:28:08.720 Would you say

00:28:09.220 that's true?

00:28:10.560 Don't you think

00:28:11.240 that your complete

00:28:12.100 and total

00:28:12.680 lack of privacy

00:28:13.700 is why there

00:28:15.200 have been

00:28:15.420 no terror

00:28:16.120 attacks?

00:28:17.540 I would love

00:28:18.620 to see somebody

00:28:19.300 who knows

00:28:19.600 what they're

00:28:19.900 talking about

00:28:20.480 look into that

00:28:21.300 but it feels

00:28:22.920 like there

00:28:23.920 would just

00:28:24.280 have to be

00:28:25.060 terrorist

00:28:25.540 attacks

00:28:26.140 like way

00:28:27.440 more of them

00:28:28.060 unless we

00:28:30.080 had so much

00:28:30.820 control of

00:28:31.800 information

00:28:32.360 that we

00:28:32.800 could see

00:28:33.140 them before

00:28:33.600 they start

00:28:34.100 and I think

00:28:35.660 that's where

00:28:36.060 we're at.

00:28:37.520 I think

00:28:38.080 I'm seeing

00:28:39.780 a little bit

00:28:40.220 of disagreement

00:28:40.720 on me.

00:28:41.900 What would

00:28:42.400 be the other

00:28:42.960 reason that

00:28:43.900 there are

00:28:44.120 no terrorist

00:28:44.620 attacks?

00:28:46.660 I'm seeing

00:28:47.320 lots of

00:28:47.760 no's

00:28:48.180 especially

00:28:48.620 on YouTube

00:28:49.660 but what

00:28:51.340 would be

00:28:52.260 the other

00:28:52.680 hypothesis?

00:28:54.960 Because you

00:28:55.840 are not

00:28:56.120 aware

00:28:56.580 that there

00:28:57.720 are attacks

00:28:58.200 but I'm

00:28:58.440 not aware

00:28:58.820 of them

00:28:59.100 maybe

00:29:00.300 they're

00:29:01.400 more

00:29:01.580 cyber

00:29:01.920 attacks.

00:29:06.140 But the

00:29:07.100 cyber

00:29:07.340 attacks

00:29:07.640 are

00:29:07.780 different

00:29:08.220 terrorists. 0.53

00:29:10.060 It's not

00:29:10.740 like one

00:29:11.380 morphed into

00:29:12.340 the other.

00:29:14.560 I can't

00:29:16.280 think of

00:29:16.580 any

00:29:16.860 mechanism

00:29:17.420 that would

00:29:18.400 have stopped

00:29:18.880 all the

00:29:19.300 presumed

00:29:20.040 terrorism

00:29:20.580 between 9-11

00:29:21.640 and now

00:29:22.200 except for

00:29:23.540 the complete

00:29:23.960 lack of

00:29:24.320 privacy.

00:29:24.600 privacy.

00:29:25.880 And I

00:29:26.620 remember

00:29:26.920 during 9-11

00:29:27.720 when the

00:29:28.880 privacy

00:29:29.260 question

00:29:29.920 became big

00:29:30.540 I always

00:29:30.940 thought

00:29:31.240 there's no

00:29:32.240 way it

00:29:32.500 can go

00:29:32.800 any other

00:29:33.180 way.

00:29:34.280 You will

00:29:34.760 lose all

00:29:35.260 of your

00:29:35.520 privacy

00:29:35.920 because you'll

00:29:37.300 prefer security.

00:29:38.760 Now you

00:29:39.040 didn't get a

00:29:39.440 choice.

00:29:40.120 It just

00:29:40.580 happened.

00:29:41.480 But I

00:29:42.060 feel like it

00:29:42.600 might have

00:29:43.240 been the

00:29:43.460 right choice.

00:29:44.520 We'll never

00:29:44.960 know.

00:29:45.560 Because you

00:29:46.000 don't know

00:29:46.340 what attacks

00:29:46.840 you prevented.

00:29:47.980 You only

00:29:48.560 know what

00:29:49.160 happened not

00:29:49.660 what didn't

00:29:50.060 happen.

00:29:50.320 Have you

00:29:51.780 seen the

00:29:52.160 Trump video

00:29:53.040 attack ad

00:29:53.900 on Biden

00:29:54.500 and his

00:29:55.100 Afghan

00:29:56.020 situation

00:29:56.600 and his

00:29:57.160 other

00:29:57.340 problems?

00:29:58.660 Oh my

00:29:59.340 God.

00:30:00.800 Trump

00:30:01.180 is back.

00:30:03.760 And it's

00:30:04.720 brutal.

00:30:05.840 If you

00:30:06.380 haven't seen

00:30:07.060 Trump's

00:30:07.760 brand new

00:30:08.220 video mocking

00:30:10.160 Biden and

00:30:10.900 attacking him

00:30:11.480 for everything

00:30:12.080 it juxtaposes

00:30:14.000 just horrible

00:30:15.040 things about

00:30:16.620 Afghanistan

00:30:17.240 and bad

00:30:18.320 decisions

00:30:18.800 and bad

00:30:19.740 predictions.

00:30:21.300 Every once

00:30:22.220 in a while

00:30:22.440 they'll show

00:30:22.720 him falling

00:30:23.180 on the

00:30:23.500 stairs walking

00:30:24.120 up to the

00:30:24.740 plane.

00:30:26.100 I mean it's

00:30:26.760 devastating.

00:30:27.960 So they'll

00:30:28.320 show Biden

00:30:29.220 messing up

00:30:29.940 something or

00:30:30.840 saying something

00:30:31.920 dumb like

00:30:32.540 Afghanistan will 1.00

00:30:33.820 go smoothly

00:30:34.480 a week before

00:30:35.680 it doesn't.

00:30:36.720 And then

00:30:37.100 they'll show

00:30:37.440 him gaffing

00:30:38.180 and they'll

00:30:38.880 show him

00:30:39.180 falling down

00:30:39.780 on the

00:30:40.100 stairs.

00:30:41.680 Oh it's

00:30:42.200 good.

00:30:43.200 It makes

00:30:43.880 the case that

00:30:44.720 he's not

00:30:46.160 in his right

00:30:47.500 mind and

00:30:48.680 not capable

00:30:49.300 really well.

00:30:50.700 He uses

00:30:51.620 visual persuasion

00:30:52.620 he uses

00:30:54.300 humor to

00:30:55.660 get your

00:30:55.980 attention

00:30:56.340 makes it

00:30:56.760 viral

00:30:57.060 and he

00:30:58.160 uses fear.

00:31:01.000 What's

00:31:01.560 better?

00:31:03.520 And by the

00:31:04.200 way how do

00:31:05.180 you put fear

00:31:05.920 and humor in

00:31:06.660 the same

00:31:06.980 video?

00:31:08.220 He did it.

00:31:09.620 Well whoever

00:31:10.440 made it did it

00:31:11.100 trumped into it

00:31:11.740 himself.

00:31:12.620 But it's

00:31:13.260 really good

00:31:13.980 like just in

00:31:15.180 persuasion.

00:31:15.700 So you

00:31:16.800 can make

00:31:17.140 your own

00:31:17.420 judgment

00:31:17.700 about whether

00:31:18.260 it's fair

00:31:18.820 or accurate

00:31:19.260 but persuasion

00:31:20.340 wise that's

00:31:22.180 damn good.

00:31:23.880 All right.

00:31:25.360 Apparently

00:31:25.860 there's a new

00:31:26.300 report Intel

00:31:26.980 report that

00:31:27.760 says about

00:31:29.080 the COVID

00:31:29.540 origin.

00:31:30.260 We don't

00:31:30.580 know where

00:31:30.960 it came

00:31:31.260 from.

00:31:32.440 Are you

00:31:32.800 surprised

00:31:33.300 about that?

00:31:34.300 When you

00:31:34.800 heard that

00:31:35.360 there was all

00:31:36.540 this effort

00:31:36.960 to find out

00:31:37.540 the real

00:31:38.280 origin of

00:31:38.920 the coronavirus

00:31:39.520 or at

00:31:41.140 least COVID-19

00:31:42.240 did you think

00:31:43.820 they were

00:31:44.100 going to find

00:31:44.580 it?

00:31:46.160 Because I

00:31:47.000 didn't.

00:31:47.380 I heard that

00:31:47.840 and I

00:31:48.600 thought how

00:31:49.420 the hell

00:31:50.000 would you

00:31:50.920 know where

00:31:51.220 it came

00:31:51.540 from?

00:31:52.980 It just

00:31:53.660 doesn't seem

00:31:54.140 doable does

00:31:54.920 it?

00:31:56.160 And then

00:31:56.780 sure enough

00:31:57.180 it wasn't

00:31:57.560 done.

00:31:58.280 Now I

00:31:58.520 suppose if

00:31:58.960 you had

00:31:59.160 some kind

00:31:59.500 of whistle

00:32:00.460 blower or

00:32:01.520 can you do

00:32:02.960 genetic

00:32:03.400 testing to

00:32:04.320 find out

00:32:04.720 that the

00:32:05.000 virus must

00:32:05.740 have come

00:32:06.100 from somewhere?

00:32:07.640 I don't

00:32:07.940 know.

00:32:08.120 To me it

00:32:08.440 just didn't

00:32:08.760 seem possible

00:32:09.340 when it

00:32:09.720 started and

00:32:10.460 sure enough.

00:32:13.880 Apparently

00:32:14.320 China is 0.85

00:32:14.900 pushing a

00:32:15.360 pretty hard

00:32:15.780 persuasion

00:32:16.980 war especially

00:32:19.100 in their

00:32:19.680 own country.

00:32:21.280 So within

00:32:21.720 China you're 1.00

00:32:22.480 being told

00:32:22.880 that the

00:32:23.220 virus probably

00:32:24.040 originated in

00:32:25.360 the United

00:32:25.780 States at

00:32:27.160 Fort Kendrick.

00:32:29.940 And I

00:32:30.240 guess there

00:32:30.540 used to be

00:32:31.020 some viral

00:32:33.120 research there.

00:32:34.920 Not anymore.

00:32:36.220 But the

00:32:36.540 well I don't

00:32:38.100 know if it's

00:32:38.420 not anymore.

00:32:39.400 But anyway

00:32:39.700 China is 0.85

00:32:40.220 using their

00:32:41.620 control over

00:32:42.660 their own

00:32:42.980 media to

00:32:43.800 tell their

00:32:44.160 local population

00:32:45.060 that you

00:32:45.980 know probably

00:32:46.620 probably derived

00:32:48.080 from is it

00:32:50.860 Dietrich?

00:32:51.480 Yeah.

00:32:52.380 Fort Dietrich.

00:32:53.740 So China is

00:32:55.800 actually selling

00:32:56.560 this story.

00:32:57.400 So if you

00:32:57.780 live in China

00:32:58.480 the news you

00:33:00.080 heard is that

00:33:00.700 the coronavirus

00:33:01.400 came from the

00:33:02.100 United States

00:33:02.780 and specifically

00:33:03.480 from that

00:33:04.080 fort.

00:33:05.800 Now if

00:33:07.520 China is doing 1.00

00:33:08.320 this to us

00:33:09.460 and you know

00:33:10.340 just making

00:33:10.860 up news like

00:33:11.740 this are we

00:33:13.380 doing the

00:33:13.740 same thing?

00:33:15.380 Can anybody

00:33:16.220 tell me if

00:33:17.160 our intel

00:33:18.460 people are

00:33:19.000 putting fake

00:33:19.640 news into

00:33:20.160 China? 0.73

00:33:21.800 I assume

00:33:22.700 so.

00:33:23.640 Right?

00:33:24.180 But why don't

00:33:24.740 we ever hear

00:33:25.200 about that?

00:33:25.840 It's interesting.

00:33:29.820 All right.

00:33:33.540 I have

00:33:34.400 one analogy

00:33:36.980 I would like

00:33:37.600 to give you.

00:33:38.780 This would be

00:33:39.560 the point where

00:33:40.520 the people who

00:33:41.080 don't like

00:33:41.620 hearing the

00:33:42.240 persuasion or

00:33:43.280 logic discussions

00:33:45.360 that involve

00:33:46.860 vaccinations.

00:33:48.940 This is where

00:33:49.780 you can turn it

00:33:50.540 off.

00:33:51.460 But I'm not

00:33:52.260 talking about

00:33:52.740 whether you

00:33:53.300 should get

00:33:53.580 it or not.

00:33:54.040 The only

00:33:54.260 question is

00:33:55.020 how do you

00:33:56.180 explain that

00:33:57.020 vaccinations

00:33:57.580 might cause

00:33:58.660 more variance?

00:33:59.520 cognitive dissonance?

00:34:00.520 And I asked

00:34:01.160 that question

00:34:01.620 and got all

00:34:02.460 kinds of

00:34:03.040 cognitive dissonance.

00:34:04.060 How do I know

00:34:05.080 it's cognitive

00:34:05.700 dissonance?

00:34:06.740 I don't know

00:34:07.880 that every answer

00:34:09.060 was cognitive

00:34:09.700 dissonance.

00:34:10.880 I do know

00:34:11.580 that almost all

00:34:13.020 of the answers

00:34:13.480 were cognitive

00:34:14.140 dissonance

00:34:14.800 because they were

00:34:15.900 different.

00:34:17.160 And most of them

00:34:18.180 made no sense.

00:34:19.540 It's really easy

00:34:20.360 to see that

00:34:21.860 it's cognitive

00:34:23.460 dissonance.

00:34:23.980 But I try

00:34:26.420 to come up

00:34:27.160 with a way

00:34:28.500 to make my

00:34:29.200 point and I'm

00:34:30.060 going to test

00:34:30.500 it out.

00:34:31.740 And I've told

00:34:32.360 you many times

00:34:32.940 that analogies

00:34:33.840 don't replace

00:34:35.620 reason, right?

00:34:36.920 So if I tried

00:34:37.700 to make an

00:34:38.100 argument with

00:34:38.740 an analogy,

00:34:40.020 you'd say to

00:34:40.880 yourself, well

00:34:41.500 that's a bad

00:34:42.000 argument.

00:34:42.420 You've said so

00:34:42.900 yourself.

00:34:44.000 So see what

00:34:44.600 I'm doing here.

00:34:45.700 If I've told

00:34:46.240 you analogies

00:34:47.060 do not persuade,

00:34:48.820 why am I going

00:34:50.160 to use one?

00:34:50.760 Here it goes.

00:34:52.000 If you shoot

00:34:52.820 all the horses

00:34:53.380 in one country,

00:34:55.300 will it cause

00:34:56.040 rabbits to

00:34:56.740 evolve more

00:34:57.480 quickly in a

00:34:58.380 different country?

00:34:59.900 Go.

00:35:01.040 What do you

00:35:01.400 think?

00:35:01.940 If you shoot

00:35:02.640 all the horses

00:35:03.340 in one country

00:35:04.780 that has no

00:35:05.840 connection whatsoever

00:35:06.720 to a separate

00:35:07.620 country,

00:35:08.640 would it make

00:35:09.380 the rabbits

00:35:10.000 in the second

00:35:10.680 country evolve

00:35:12.260 faster?

00:35:14.640 No.

00:35:15.500 Because there's

00:35:16.060 no causal

00:35:16.680 connection

00:35:17.280 whatsoever,

00:35:17.880 right?

00:35:18.880 No way.

00:35:20.620 But,

00:35:20.980 if you make

00:35:23.780 a vaccination

00:35:24.460 that works

00:35:26.500 on both

00:35:27.100 regular

00:35:28.420 coronavirus,

00:35:29.340 let's call

00:35:29.700 it alpha,

00:35:30.580 and the

00:35:31.240 variant,

00:35:31.900 delta,

00:35:32.780 it works

00:35:33.200 on both

00:35:33.580 of them,

00:35:33.900 but it

00:35:34.120 works a

00:35:34.520 little

00:35:34.640 better

00:35:35.040 on the

00:35:36.160 original.

00:35:36.520 Will that

00:35:38.540 cause the

00:35:39.500 delta

00:35:39.840 or other

00:35:41.920 variants to

00:35:42.800 be more

00:35:43.280 aggressive?

00:35:43.740 And is

00:35:47.080 that exactly

00:35:47.740 like shooting

00:35:49.700 horses in

00:35:50.340 one country

00:35:50.980 causes rabbits

00:35:53.060 to reproduce

00:35:53.660 differently in

00:35:54.380 a different

00:35:54.700 country?

00:35:56.300 Well,

00:35:57.300 here's the

00:35:57.900 question.

00:35:58.920 If all the

00:35:59.700 viruses were

00:36:00.380 competing for

00:36:01.120 resources,

00:36:03.280 somebody says

00:36:03.900 that's a

00:36:04.280 terrible analogy.

00:36:06.320 Right.

00:36:07.920 It's a

00:36:08.740 terrible analogy

00:36:09.580 and here's

00:36:11.600 the punchline.

00:36:12.180 it's the

00:36:13.620 main reason

00:36:14.280 people are

00:36:15.020 arguing that

00:36:16.680 the vaccinations

00:36:18.300 cause more

00:36:19.860 variants.

00:36:21.180 That analogy

00:36:22.500 is their

00:36:23.400 reason.

00:36:24.220 I just

00:36:24.600 changed the

00:36:25.220 country and

00:36:25.700 the animals.

00:36:26.920 So the

00:36:27.200 argument is

00:36:28.160 that if you

00:36:29.240 suppress the

00:36:30.380 one variant,

00:36:32.640 it makes the

00:36:33.580 other variant

00:36:34.380 stronger.

00:36:36.180 How?

00:36:36.980 How does it

00:36:38.800 do that?

00:36:40.280 Now,

00:36:40.820 that's the

00:36:41.160 question I

00:36:41.520 ask.

00:36:41.720 I'm asking

00:36:42.100 what's the

00:36:42.500 mechanism?

00:36:43.420 Don't give

00:36:43.980 me an

00:36:44.240 analogy.

00:36:45.600 Tell me,

00:36:46.680 well,

00:36:47.120 the delta

00:36:47.700 variant and

00:36:48.780 the alpha

00:36:49.380 variant,

00:36:50.080 they have

00:36:50.860 little fists.

00:36:52.180 This would

00:36:52.540 be the

00:36:52.780 mechanism.

00:36:53.240 They have

00:36:53.420 little fists

00:36:53.980 and when

00:36:54.760 they meet

00:36:55.220 each other

00:36:55.600 inside a

00:36:56.000 body,

00:36:56.580 they start

00:36:56.960 punching.

00:36:58.040 And the

00:36:58.380 delta variant

00:36:59.000 punches harder

00:36:59.940 so it knocks

00:37:01.080 out that

00:37:01.500 other variant

00:37:02.100 and when it

00:37:03.400 knocks it

00:37:03.840 out,

00:37:04.540 it has

00:37:04.920 sex with 0.73

00:37:05.400 it just

00:37:05.980 before it

00:37:06.420 dies and

00:37:07.280 creates yet

00:37:07.760 another

00:37:08.040 variant.

00:37:08.440 Now,

00:37:10.220 that would

00:37:10.480 be a

00:37:10.860 mechanism.

00:37:11.820 So that

00:37:12.000 would be

00:37:12.300 describing in

00:37:13.760 physical terms

00:37:14.800 how it is

00:37:16.380 that the

00:37:16.840 vaccination may

00:37:17.580 weaken that

00:37:18.320 variant and

00:37:19.360 then the

00:37:19.600 other one

00:37:19.860 would beat

00:37:20.240 it up with

00:37:21.200 its little

00:37:21.580 fists and

00:37:22.880 take over

00:37:23.360 and have

00:37:24.560 sex with 0.73

00:37:25.000 it and

00:37:25.240 then create

00:37:25.580 another

00:37:25.840 variant.

00:37:26.960 Now,

00:37:27.260 that doesn't

00:37:27.700 happen,

00:37:29.100 but I'm

00:37:30.180 looking for

00:37:30.640 somebody to

00:37:31.200 describe

00:37:31.780 physically how

00:37:33.620 a vaccination

00:37:34.220 that works

00:37:35.000 well on

00:37:35.640 the alpha

00:37:36.700 could have

00:37:37.860 any impact

00:37:38.740 on the

00:37:39.800 delta.

00:37:42.480 Now,

00:37:43.080 the best

00:37:43.600 that anybody's

00:37:44.200 come up

00:37:44.560 with,

00:37:45.020 and it's

00:37:45.400 only a few

00:37:45.900 people,

00:37:46.740 is that the

00:37:47.480 delta wouldn't

00:37:48.060 have any

00:37:48.460 food because

00:37:50.760 people would

00:37:51.760 get infected

00:37:52.300 with the

00:37:53.140 other one and

00:37:54.440 then the delta

00:37:54.960 would be,

00:37:55.420 oh,

00:37:55.640 I can't go

00:37:56.120 anywhere because

00:37:56.800 everybody got

00:37:57.940 infected with

00:37:58.580 the other one

00:37:59.040 and that's

00:37:59.800 close enough so

00:38:00.880 I can't get

00:38:01.780 a foothold.

00:38:02.240 But that's

00:38:03.720 not the

00:38:04.020 reason.

00:38:05.280 There's still

00:38:05.860 so many people

00:38:07.980 can get

00:38:08.340 infected,

00:38:09.120 including people

00:38:09.900 who are

00:38:10.080 vaccinated,

00:38:11.620 that both,

00:38:13.800 every variant

00:38:14.460 has plenty of

00:38:15.160 food and

00:38:16.260 plenty of

00:38:16.640 places to

00:38:17.140 go.

00:38:18.360 So my

00:38:19.640 horse and

00:38:20.640 rabbit analogy

00:38:21.500 is pretty

00:38:22.140 close.

00:38:23.540 You shouldn't

00:38:23.940 make decisions

00:38:24.540 on analogies,

00:38:25.540 that's still

00:38:26.380 true.

00:38:27.140 But my

00:38:27.820 analogy was

00:38:28.560 to point out

00:38:29.100 the absurdity

00:38:29.960 of the other

00:38:30.920 analogies.

00:38:31.540 When you

00:38:32.400 heard my

00:38:32.760 analogy and

00:38:33.260 you said

00:38:33.580 to yourself,

00:38:34.020 well,

00:38:34.120 that's stupid

00:38:34.680 because it

00:38:35.360 has nothing

00:38:35.760 to do with

00:38:36.200 viruses.

00:38:37.500 That is the

00:38:38.320 point.

00:38:39.180 The analogies

00:38:39.800 are all stupid

00:38:40.460 and they have

00:38:41.220 nothing to do

00:38:41.720 with viruses.

00:38:42.560 If you're

00:38:43.180 thinking in

00:38:43.860 terms of an

00:38:44.420 analogy,

00:38:45.840 you don't

00:38:46.700 know the

00:38:46.960 mechanism because

00:38:48.440 the analogy

00:38:48.900 doesn't tell

00:38:49.440 you, well,

00:38:50.140 they have

00:38:50.360 little fists.

00:38:51.560 It just

00:38:52.040 tells you

00:38:52.400 something

00:38:52.660 happened analogously

00:38:54.760 to something

00:38:55.300 else.

00:38:55.820 No mechanism

00:38:56.460 noted.

00:38:57.460 So this is

00:39:00.080 my current

00:39:00.580 thinking.

00:39:01.940 It might

00:39:02.560 be true

00:39:03.000 that if

00:39:04.300 your vaccination

00:39:05.740 works better

00:39:06.560 on the

00:39:06.960 original virus,

00:39:08.140 it would

00:39:08.560 suppress it

00:39:09.260 more, and

00:39:10.380 then the

00:39:10.700 delta, there

00:39:11.360 would be more

00:39:11.860 of them.

00:39:12.940 Is that a

00:39:13.900 case of it

00:39:16.280 being caused,

00:39:17.340 or did you

00:39:18.500 just make one

00:39:19.120 of them less?

00:39:20.620 Let's say you

00:39:21.420 have a hundred

00:39:22.560 jelly beans that

00:39:23.400 are red and

00:39:24.000 a hundred jelly

00:39:24.660 beans that are

00:39:25.280 blue, and you

00:39:26.700 eat all the red

00:39:27.520 ones.

00:39:27.840 Did that

00:39:29.100 promote the

00:39:29.820 growth of

00:39:31.140 blue ones?

00:39:32.180 No.

00:39:33.380 You just

00:39:33.720 ate the red

00:39:34.180 ones.

00:39:35.100 So if the

00:39:35.740 vaccination eats

00:39:37.560 all of the

00:39:38.040 old virus,

00:39:38.820 you know, the

00:39:39.100 original

00:39:39.540 coronavirus, did

00:39:41.820 it have any

00:39:42.320 effect on the

00:39:43.080 delta?

00:39:44.700 No.

00:39:45.980 It was just

00:39:46.760 doing other

00:39:47.240 things.

00:39:48.380 As long as

00:39:49.180 everybody has

00:39:49.660 enough hosts

00:39:50.200 and food, and

00:39:50.900 that's the

00:39:51.220 case, because

00:39:51.940 vaccinated people

00:39:52.680 still get both

00:39:53.340 viruses.

00:39:54.340 So there's

00:39:54.900 plenty of hosts,

00:39:55.580 there's plenty

00:39:55.920 of food.

00:39:57.020 Every virus

00:39:57.760 should grow as

00:39:58.380 fast as it

00:39:58.940 wants to.

00:40:00.120 I don't see

00:40:00.580 how vaccinations

00:40:01.160 make any

00:40:01.700 difference.

00:40:05.080 Scott is

00:40:05.640 really reaching

00:40:06.240 today.

00:40:07.080 So that's a

00:40:07.580 cognitive dissonance.

00:40:09.600 Actually, let me

00:40:10.280 read some of the

00:40:10.780 cognitive dissonance

00:40:11.560 in the comments.

00:40:12.540 I'll tell you

00:40:12.940 how to spot it.

00:40:16.660 It lowers the

00:40:17.560 number of

00:40:17.960 replicating virus.

00:40:20.300 What's your

00:40:20.800 reason, though?

00:40:21.320 What's the

00:40:21.680 mechanism?

00:40:22.020 Yes, because the

00:40:25.340 vaccine allows

00:40:26.220 asymptomatic to

00:40:27.060 spread, and

00:40:27.740 people don't

00:40:28.240 realize it.

00:40:29.560 That is not a

00:40:30.340 reason.

00:40:31.540 Let's see if

00:40:32.060 over on YouTube.

00:40:34.020 If both jelly

00:40:35.120 beans are

00:40:35.500 reproducing all of

00:40:36.920 one color, the

00:40:37.640 other color will

00:40:38.320 have more of it.

00:40:39.720 Right.

00:40:41.060 But it wasn't

00:40:41.900 caused by anything.

00:40:43.340 It was just two

00:40:44.140 independent things.

00:40:45.020 The vaccines are

00:40:49.380 about profit, but

00:40:50.920 that doesn't

00:40:51.340 explain it.

00:40:53.520 Does anybody

00:40:54.360 here see anything

00:40:55.260 that looks like

00:40:55.880 pushback on my

00:40:56.780 point?

00:40:57.740 Because I don't.

00:40:58.800 I haven't seen

00:40:59.300 it yet.

00:41:02.280 The receptors

00:41:03.240 are blocked by

00:41:04.160 the alpha

00:41:04.620 variant.

00:41:07.560 The receptors

00:41:08.560 are blocked.

00:41:09.160 So you're

00:41:09.440 telling me that

00:41:10.060 if somebody gets

00:41:10.780 the alpha, then

00:41:12.380 they can't get

00:41:13.040 the variant.

00:41:13.740 So basically

00:41:15.240 you're saying

00:41:15.780 that the

00:41:16.320 original virus

00:41:17.800 acts like a

00:41:18.560 vaccine against

00:41:20.000 the variant,

00:41:21.720 except that

00:41:23.340 that only

00:41:24.120 matters if

00:41:25.760 the variant

00:41:26.260 doesn't have

00:41:26.840 enough food.

00:41:28.140 And it does.

00:41:29.500 Because the

00:41:29.900 variant will

00:41:30.500 spread whether

00:41:31.100 you're vaccinated

00:41:31.680 or not,

00:41:32.600 right?

00:41:34.560 So as long as

00:41:35.660 there's plenty of

00:41:36.180 food, they're

00:41:36.560 both going to

00:41:36.980 spread.

00:41:37.280 Anyway, that's

00:41:37.680 my whole point.

00:41:39.520 I saved it to

00:41:40.440 the end so all

00:41:41.220 of you can bail

00:41:41.820 out if you don't

00:41:42.600 like that kind

00:41:43.420 of thinking.

00:41:49.060 Scott, we

00:41:49.680 need to

00:41:49.980 recommend where

00:41:50.640 we learn

00:41:51.100 about Bitcoin

00:41:52.880 and Ethereum.

00:41:56.560 Where to

00:41:57.140 learn about it?

00:41:57.760 So let's say

00:41:58.340 you have no

00:41:59.300 knowledge whatsoever

00:42:00.080 about cryptocurrency.

00:42:02.800 Let me give

00:42:03.440 you some

00:42:03.720 knowledge right

00:42:04.260 now.

00:42:05.940 Well, I

00:42:06.600 could give

00:42:06.900 you a micro

00:42:07.320 lesson on

00:42:07.840 crypto, but

00:42:09.260 maybe I should

00:42:09.880 do that separately.

00:42:10.700 At one point,

00:42:11.180 I did a

00:42:11.480 micro lesson on

00:42:12.180 crypto, and

00:42:13.640 I'll probably

00:42:14.080 do another

00:42:14.440 one.

00:42:14.620 That's a good

00:42:14.960 idea.

00:42:16.760 It's just

00:42:17.380 survival of the

00:42:18.160 fittest, somebody

00:42:18.960 says.

00:42:19.780 Any vaccine that

00:42:20.640 doesn't stop the

00:42:21.400 spread entirely will

00:42:22.900 allow a surviving

00:42:23.760 virus to reproduce. 0.91

00:42:25.540 All right, now

00:42:26.060 that's definitely

00:42:28.560 not right.

00:42:29.660 But thank you for

00:42:30.320 the $10 to say

00:42:32.740 it.

00:42:32.920 Do you

00:42:34.240 understand that

00:42:34.900 there's no

00:42:35.260 such thing as 0.74

00:42:35.940 survival of the

00:42:37.040 fittest?

00:42:38.720 That that's a

00:42:40.300 hoax?

00:42:41.500 Not really a

00:42:42.340 hoax, but how

00:42:43.760 many people here

00:42:44.420 think survival of

00:42:45.300 the fittest is

00:42:46.040 actually a

00:42:46.720 scientific thing?

00:42:48.300 It's not.

00:42:49.740 When you were a

00:42:50.560 kid, it was.

00:42:51.800 They thought

00:42:52.280 survival of the

00:42:53.480 fittest was

00:42:53.940 actually how

00:42:54.500 evolution works,

00:42:55.860 but now we

00:42:56.520 know it's not.

00:42:57.760 Yeah, it's

00:42:58.100 survival of the

00:42:58.800 random.

00:42:59.760 There is no

00:43:00.520 survival of the

00:43:01.440 fittest in the

00:43:02.280 biological animal

00:43:03.520 kingdom.

00:43:04.600 That's not a

00:43:05.200 thing.

00:43:05.700 We used to

00:43:06.160 think it was.

00:43:07.160 Yeah, Stephen

00:43:07.780 J. Gould was

00:43:08.760 the top biological

00:43:11.040 scientist who

00:43:12.460 told us that.

00:43:14.640 So if your

00:43:15.680 argument depends

00:43:16.400 on survival of

00:43:17.180 the fittest, just

00:43:18.640 know that it

00:43:19.260 depends on

00:43:20.020 something that

00:43:20.480 doesn't exist.

00:43:22.060 And I would

00:43:22.640 say that 90%

00:43:24.060 of the people who

00:43:24.880 are looking at

00:43:25.720 this virus question

00:43:26.880 are saying,

00:43:28.120 well, it's

00:43:28.380 obvious.

00:43:29.260 Survival of the

00:43:29.960 fittest, just

00:43:31.000 apply it to the

00:43:31.620 virus.

00:43:32.280 Except survival

00:43:33.580 of the fittest

00:43:33.980 doesn't exist

00:43:34.620 anywhere.

00:43:35.880 So applying it

00:43:36.680 to the virus

00:43:37.160 takes something

00:43:37.740 that doesn't

00:43:38.280 exist, and

00:43:39.420 you're substituting

00:43:40.160 the thing that

00:43:40.660 doesn't exist as

00:43:41.540 your reasoning.

00:43:43.560 Natural selection

00:43:44.520 is basically

00:43:49.120 randomness.

00:43:55.000 How can we

00:43:55.800 tell if we

00:43:56.320 have a variant?

00:43:57.100 Apparently you

00:43:57.560 can't tell if you

00:43:58.260 get tested.

00:43:59.100 There has to be

00:43:59.560 some genetic

00:44:00.120 testing.

00:44:00.540 you're applying

00:44:04.520 a statistical

00:44:05.260 tool to

00:44:05.920 individuals.

00:44:08.380 Okay.

00:44:13.640 Random

00:44:14.160 selection.

00:44:15.160 Yes, it's

00:44:15.800 random selection.

00:44:17.200 Now, how many

00:44:17.620 people, so

00:44:19.000 Scott's a

00:44:19.520 creationist, I'm

00:44:22.220 a simulated

00:44:23.300 world guy.

00:44:24.280 So I don't

00:44:26.520 know that we

00:44:27.020 are a

00:44:27.320 simulation, that

00:44:28.520 this reality is

00:44:29.520 a computer

00:44:29.920 simulation, but

00:44:31.100 like Elon

00:44:32.040 Musk, I

00:44:32.720 agree that the

00:44:33.380 math says it

00:44:34.400 almost certainly

00:44:35.380 is.

00:44:36.100 So you don't

00:44:36.480 know for sure,

00:44:37.580 but almost

00:44:38.060 certainly, because

00:44:38.880 the math and

00:44:39.800 statistics of it

00:44:40.680 pretty much

00:44:41.280 guarantee it.

00:44:42.400 It comes close to

00:44:43.540 guaranteeing it.

00:44:45.260 How many

00:44:45.940 people, let me

00:44:47.260 ask you this

00:44:47.660 question, how

00:44:48.560 many people who

00:44:49.140 are watching this

00:44:49.800 believe that they

00:44:51.060 understood evolution

00:44:52.000 because they knew

00:44:52.820 what the survival

00:44:53.620 of the fittest was

00:44:54.740 all about and

00:44:55.800 just learned that

00:44:56.900 it's not a thing?

00:44:58.100 How many people

00:44:58.820 just learned that?

00:45:02.300 Will people with

00:45:03.340 natural immunity be

00:45:04.340 forced to get

00:45:04.900 yearly jabs?

00:45:06.740 Maybe.

00:45:07.900 There's a good

00:45:08.340 chance.

00:45:09.060 Apparently the

00:45:09.640 Pfizer booster is

00:45:10.960 really good.

00:45:12.620 So the booster

00:45:13.380 doesn't just take

00:45:14.260 you back to where

00:45:15.440 you were.

00:45:16.120 It takes you back

00:45:16.960 to many times

00:45:17.840 better than if you

00:45:18.700 only had two in

00:45:19.640 the first place.

00:45:20.860 So the booster

00:45:21.560 of the, of

00:45:23.600 one of the

00:45:24.100 shots, I 0.76

00:45:24.660 forget which

00:45:25.000 one, was a

00:45:25.980 J&J.

00:45:26.840 It's just

00:45:27.440 really, really

00:45:28.920 useful.

00:45:31.400 Scott, were

00:45:32.080 you on

00:45:32.520 prednisone when

00:45:33.340 you got your

00:45:33.880 Moderna?

00:45:34.500 No, I

00:45:34.920 wasn't.

00:45:35.260 I was off

00:45:35.660 prednisone for

00:45:36.320 over a year.

00:45:40.960 Yeah, which

00:45:41.640 booster was a

00:45:42.420 J&J?

00:45:42.980 I forget.

00:45:44.460 It wasn't

00:45:44.960 Moderna.

00:45:46.720 I think it

00:45:47.400 was J&J.

00:45:47.900 never believed

00:45:52.020 survival of the

00:45:52.820 fittest, otherwise

00:45:53.620 dinosaurs would

00:45:54.620 still be around.

00:45:55.400 That's not

00:45:55.820 true, because

00:45:57.740 there were some

00:45:59.300 environmental

00:45:59.740 things that

00:46:00.440 killed the

00:46:00.940 dinosaurs.

00:46:05.600 What are your

00:46:06.260 opinions on

00:46:06.720 Steve Bannon?

00:46:08.460 Well, he's

00:46:09.040 obviously, you

00:46:10.400 know, his

00:46:10.800 program, his

00:46:12.740 podcast is very

00:46:13.660 successful.

00:46:14.740 He makes a big

00:46:15.380 dent.

00:46:15.700 I would say

00:46:16.540 he has a

00:46:17.360 pretty big

00:46:17.860 influence on

00:46:21.400 the popular

00:46:22.320 culture.

00:46:22.920 Oh, I've got

00:46:23.320 to run.

00:46:23.860 I'll see you

00:46:24.340 guys later.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 25, 2021

Episode 1479 Scott Adams： Let's Laugh at the Headlines and Learn Some Things About Persuasion at the Same Time

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