Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 25, 2021


Episode 1479 Scott Adams： Let's Laugh at the Headlines and Learn Some Things About Persuasion at the Same Time


Episode Stats

Length

46 minutes

Words per Minute

148.19257

Word Count

6,879

Sentence Count

506

Misogynist Sentences

14

Hate Speech Sentences

48


Summary

The first autonomous shipping ship has been built, and it's going to be electric and autonomous soon. And a woman has been banned from the zoo because she fell in love with a chimimp. It's a sign of the times.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, good morning and welcome to Coffee with Scott Adams.
00:00:07.560 Best time of the day, every single day.
00:00:10.760 And today is going to be a special one.
00:00:13.580 How special?
00:00:14.560 Oh, wow.
00:00:17.060 I'm not even going to talk about masks and vaccinations until maybe, maybe the very end.
00:00:23.480 So if you love that stuff, I'm only going to talk about one point of logic.
00:00:26.920 But before then, let's enjoy the other stuff, the reason you come here.
00:00:32.200 We're talking about the funny news and the persuasion filter on it.
00:00:37.420 But all you need to make this an extra special day is a cupper mugger, a glass of tanker, chelps, a stand, a canteen jugger flask, a vessel of any kind.
00:00:46.040 Fill it with your favorite liquid and I like coffee.
00:00:49.480 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.
00:00:52.560 The dopamine of the day, the thing that makes everything better.
00:00:55.740 Accept the Afghanistan withdrawal.
00:00:58.620 Let's call this simultaneous sip and it happens now.
00:01:00.920 Go.
00:01:05.220 Ah, yeah, it's a little extra good today.
00:01:08.220 A little extra delicious.
00:01:10.520 Well, here's news.
00:01:13.380 Let's call this building block news.
00:01:16.500 Building block news.
00:01:18.720 It's news that by itself doesn't seem that big.
00:01:21.600 But it's part of a larger structure.
00:01:25.480 And here's the news.
00:01:26.720 There's now the first autonomous shipping ship.
00:01:31.980 That's what they call them.
00:01:33.480 It's a ship that ships things.
00:01:35.740 So that'd be a shipping ship.
00:01:37.620 You could call it a container ship if you like.
00:01:40.000 But it's electric.
00:01:41.380 And it's unmanned.
00:01:43.220 Or, as we say, unpersoned.
00:01:45.700 And it's the first one.
00:01:49.140 So that you're going to monitor it remotely.
00:01:51.080 And this thing will use its electricity to go around in a very green way and not pollute the world.
00:01:59.060 Now, why is this a big deal?
00:02:00.220 Well, if container ships become electric and autonomous, and we're already seeing that there are plans in maybe a year or two to have the first electric commercial airliners.
00:02:13.740 So if you could get rid of carbon fuel on container ships and air travel, it's a pretty big deal.
00:02:22.420 It's a pretty big deal.
00:02:23.460 So it's a little story that's part of a bigger story.
00:02:25.740 I do expect that all of our automobiles will be electric and autonomous fairly soon.
00:02:34.520 You know, when you drive, have you noticed that the least important part of the car process is the human?
00:02:41.320 Like, all of the error of an automobile is all built around the fact that people want to feel like they're driving.
00:02:48.500 Because you could easily get rid of that part, and it would be much safer.
00:02:51.620 I mean, we're already at the place, pretty sure.
00:02:54.320 I think Elon Musk would probably agree with this statement.
00:02:58.120 Don't know.
00:02:59.220 But I think we're already at the point where we could build autonomous cars that would be safer than human-driven cars.
00:03:05.140 Here's the thing that I think every time I'm driving and I'm using my navigation.
00:03:10.440 So I'm driving along, and I'm thinking to myself, hey, look at me.
00:03:14.040 I'm in charge of driving my car with my free will and everything.
00:03:18.000 And then my GPS says, turn right at the next intersection.
00:03:22.800 And then I turn right, because that's where I want to go.
00:03:25.720 That's why I set the GPS navigation for that.
00:03:29.040 But the car already knew it needed to take the right turn.
00:03:33.280 And the car knew where the right turn was.
00:03:35.860 In fact, the car knew where the right turn was before I did.
00:03:38.540 The only weakness in the system is me.
00:03:42.660 I have to listen to it and then execute.
00:03:44.800 If you could get me out of that, it's got to be a better system.
00:03:49.100 So I'm driving, but I'm thinking I am the just ridiculous part of this system.
00:03:54.760 If you looked at the whole system of buying a car, getting it on the highway, building highways,
00:03:59.940 making this whole transportation network, the human part is the stupid part.
00:04:10.900 Like, you would never engineer that into your system.
00:04:13.260 But because we think we're special, we do.
00:04:16.620 So it's all going to be electric and autonomous soon.
00:04:20.100 Here is the best story in the news, but let's call it a sign of the times.
00:04:25.980 It's a sign of the times.
00:04:27.120 This is the actual headline on Fox News.
00:04:31.140 Woman banned from zoo after unhealthy relationship with chimp.
00:04:36.240 He loves me, she said.
00:04:39.200 And when they banned her, she was quite sad.
00:04:41.840 She says, it's all I have.
00:04:43.800 And she would visit the zoo on a very regular basis for years.
00:04:48.280 And she thought that she had fallen in love with one of the chimps.
00:04:51.960 So one of the chimps would come over and they would blow kisses to each other and interact.
00:04:56.340 But the zoo thought that she was ruining the chimp.
00:05:00.320 She was making the chimp too much like a human.
00:05:04.180 And it sort of ruined the chimp's interaction.
00:05:06.600 And so they banned her from the zoo.
00:05:09.020 But that's not the big story.
00:05:11.880 Here's the big story.
00:05:12.960 If you're a man, don't you already have enough competition for human women?
00:05:20.480 I mean, it's hard enough.
00:05:22.500 You know, if you're not that good looking, you know, maybe your job isn't that good.
00:05:26.960 It's really hard to get a girlfriend, get a wife.
00:05:31.020 And that's just competing against humans.
00:05:34.860 You know, when you're competing against other human males, the bar is pretty low, right?
00:05:40.640 I mean, men kind of create, you know, not really the highest standard in the world.
00:05:46.540 So competing against other men, I always think, well, I think I've got a shot against those other men.
00:05:51.980 But if I have to compete against chimps too, can you imagine competing against a chimp?
00:05:59.520 You get a chimp, that thing is never going to talk back.
00:06:03.520 The woman will be like, and will the chimp say, oh, you know, the game's on?
00:06:09.520 No, no.
00:06:10.880 That chimp will just groom you and listen to your story.
00:06:14.320 You can complain all day and that chimp will just go, or whatever chimps make.
00:06:19.200 So I'm very unhappy that I will someday have to compete, possibly, with chimps.
00:06:27.140 Have you ever had the experience of having an ex who changed sides after you were with them?
00:06:35.420 In other words, have you ever had a, if you're a man, have you ever had a girlfriend who,
00:06:40.280 after you dated her, she decided to become a lesbian?
00:06:44.660 I've had that experience.
00:06:46.020 In college, there was a young lady who was very inexperienced and wanted me to change that situation, and I did.
00:06:57.260 And after I changed that situation for her, she thought about it and she thought, you know,
00:07:02.840 I think I could just do women after this.
00:07:06.460 Now, I like to think it was going to happen anyway.
00:07:09.600 I'd like to think the natural arc of her life was, she was born lesbian and she just needed to find out.
00:07:18.920 And, you know, once she found out, it was going to happen one way or another.
00:07:23.000 That's one explanation.
00:07:25.660 The other possibility is that interacting with me was so bad, she said to herself,
00:07:32.040 I think I could go my whole life without doing this again.
00:07:34.900 So let's just say that wasn't my biggest success, but I like to think it would have happened anyway.
00:07:43.440 Kamala Harris, her flight from Singapore was delayed because of Havana syndrome.
00:07:52.240 Have you heard of it?
00:07:53.720 Havana syndrome.
00:07:54.740 And that's where they speculate, the professionals do, that there's some kind of secret sonic weapon,
00:08:05.200 some kind of rival or terrorist is shooting at embassies and making people sick.
00:08:10.500 It's hurting their brains in some horrible way.
00:08:14.480 And so now there's a report that this is happening in Singapore.
00:08:18.700 Now, what did I tell you about Havana syndrome and the secret sonic weapon?
00:08:27.100 What was my prediction the first time we heard about this in Havana?
00:08:32.420 I told you it's not real.
00:08:36.360 That whatever it is, it's not going to be a secret sonic weapon.
00:08:40.180 I mean, it might be real damage and it might be a real phenomenon of some sort.
00:08:44.200 But I'll tell you what it's not, a secret sonic weapon.
00:08:49.180 Now, if I'm wrong on this one, nothing would make me more surprised.
00:08:54.380 And I like this prediction because I'm the only one, right?
00:08:57.640 I'm the only one with this prediction.
00:08:59.640 So how's my prediction doing that this story was always bullshit from moment one?
00:09:05.720 How's that prediction look?
00:09:07.220 Well, here's, apparently there's another attack in Singapore.
00:09:11.140 So does that mean I'm wrong because these attacks keep happening?
00:09:17.420 Well, there's a little detail about this story that maybe you missed.
00:09:21.760 That the two people who had these anomalous health outcomes that has been called Havana syndrome,
00:09:29.480 turns out they were working at home.
00:09:31.140 That's right.
00:09:35.560 The diplomats who had this secret sonic weapon attack them were in Singapore and working at home.
00:09:46.480 So apparently this terrorist who has the secret sonic weapon tracked them down at their homes just to zap them at home.
00:09:55.360 Because that's exactly what you would do if you were a terrorist and you had the wherewithal to take your secret sonic weapon
00:10:03.060 and go all over the world.
00:10:05.620 It's been in Canada.
00:10:06.880 It's been in Havana.
00:10:08.640 And now it's in Singapore.
00:10:10.040 So you've got the wherewithal to get into all of these countries with your secret sonic weapon.
00:10:15.320 And your best bet was to hunt people down one by one at their home office.
00:10:21.240 No.
00:10:26.340 No.
00:10:27.740 It's not happening.
00:10:29.460 I don't know what's happening.
00:10:31.000 Maybe some kind of phenomenon for real.
00:10:33.160 But it's not a secret sonic weapon.
00:10:35.860 Can we just agree that we've debunked that now?
00:10:39.720 Because there's nobody with...
00:10:41.520 There's no terrorist with a secret sonic weapon who's hunting people down at their home office.
00:10:46.820 That's not happening.
00:10:50.080 All right.
00:10:51.240 Somebody's saying it's a satellite.
00:10:56.040 I don't know about that.
00:10:58.200 My favorite tweet of the day from Michael Malice.
00:11:01.260 If you don't follow Michael Malice on Twitter, you're missing some real good entertainment.
00:11:08.680 Those of you who follow him are probably already laughing.
00:11:12.820 The funny thing about him is that he doesn't take any prisoners.
00:11:17.760 He's got a point of view that's probably different from yours.
00:11:20.120 But, man, does he hold that point of view.
00:11:24.060 And he does a hilarious job of doing it.
00:11:27.600 But anyway, his tweet today was, quote,
00:11:30.860 At this rate, Saddam Hussein will be back in power by Ramadan.
00:11:34.820 That's a pretty good tweet.
00:11:39.620 Pretty good tweet.
00:11:41.040 Saddam Hussein will be back in power by Ramadan.
00:11:44.500 All right.
00:11:44.900 Let me surprise you by saying that Biden might be doing a really good job on persuasion with this Afghanistan thing.
00:11:57.920 Now, I'm not saying it's not botched.
00:12:00.760 It does look to me just like it looks to you and apparently everybody else in the world.
00:12:04.500 It looks like the Afghanistan withdrawal is botched.
00:12:08.780 But that doesn't mean every single thing that Biden is doing is completely wrong.
00:12:13.280 Might be.
00:12:14.500 We can find out every single thing he's doing is wrong.
00:12:17.060 But I'm going to point out one thing that you think is wrong.
00:12:20.000 The news is reporting it as a mistake.
00:12:23.120 But in my opinion, clearly isn't.
00:12:25.240 And it goes like this.
00:12:26.340 So I guess Biden is telling people, oh, yeah, we'll get those Americans out by August 31st.
00:12:33.300 And at the same time he's saying that in public,
00:12:36.380 apparently Congress was being briefed that that's not going to happen by Biden's own people.
00:12:43.640 So what's happening?
00:12:45.400 Does Biden have dementia?
00:12:47.040 He's out of the loop, doesn't know what's happening.
00:12:49.000 So why is Biden saying, oh, yeah, we'll get out of there by August 31st?
00:12:52.780 Well, all the people who know what they're talking about say, no, there's no way.
00:12:57.360 So is that a Biden mistake?
00:13:00.440 What do you think?
00:13:01.660 Mistake?
00:13:04.140 I don't think so.
00:13:05.920 I don't think so.
00:13:07.440 Here's why I think he's playing it exactly right.
00:13:10.960 And I'll be even doubly offensive by saying Trump might have done this.
00:13:17.640 Right?
00:13:17.880 That's a big stretch because we don't know what he would or would not have done.
00:13:20.960 But I feel this is very Trumpian, and I'll tell you why.
00:13:26.360 Because Biden is talking to the Taliban.
00:13:29.360 He's not talking to you.
00:13:31.520 When Biden talks to the Taliban, he says, yes, you've got a deadline.
00:13:35.200 We're absolutely going to meet that.
00:13:37.400 And what does that do to the Taliban?
00:13:40.140 Makes the Taliban feel like they're getting what they want.
00:13:43.760 So are they going to be more or less flexible about letting people out between now and August 31st?
00:13:49.680 Because in theory, they would be more flexible because they're getting everything they want.
00:13:55.620 As soon as they stopped doing that, giving us everything they want, you'd kind of expect that Biden would have to stop being as accommodating.
00:14:03.900 So I have a feeling that Biden is talking to the Taliban, basically treating them with the respect they haven't earned,
00:14:12.180 because it's going to make it easier to get our hostages out, hostages, our Americans and Afghan allies.
00:14:19.700 It's easier to get them out if the Taliban thinks they're winning.
00:14:22.880 Now, as long as the news is correctly reporting, and Biden would have known this,
00:14:31.020 Biden would have known that the news will tell the United States public it's not going to happen by August 31st.
00:14:37.740 It's kind of perfect.
00:14:39.640 Because you, the public, are completely informed.
00:14:42.420 All right, there's no mystery here.
00:14:44.140 We're not going to get them out by August 31st.
00:14:46.500 You know, things just don't work that smoothly.
00:14:48.140 There's always going to be somebody left.
00:14:49.480 So you're getting the correct, accurate story.
00:14:54.280 And you're even getting it through the Biden administration, because they briefed Congress, and it wasn't secret.
00:14:59.620 So Congress immediately ran to their microphones and said,
00:15:02.680 hey, the people who know what they're talking about say we can't do this.
00:15:06.640 So you got the accurate news.
00:15:08.200 That's good.
00:15:09.180 You like accurate news.
00:15:11.240 And the Taliban got a different message.
00:15:14.620 They said, hey, the government of the United States is going to try to meet your deadline.
00:15:17.880 I feel like he nailed it.
00:15:22.100 I don't think this looks like a case of dimension to me.
00:15:26.420 This looks more like somebody playing two different games at the same time and winning both of them.
00:15:32.820 Now, I'm not saying that the withdrawal is a success.
00:15:36.400 It looks like it's a pretty botched situation.
00:15:39.080 But in that narrow sense, his two different messages at the same time to two different audiences,
00:15:45.080 it looks spot on.
00:15:46.360 I think I might have even recommended it.
00:15:49.580 If I'd been there, I think I might have recommended he did it exactly that way.
00:15:53.860 I don't know.
00:15:54.920 So we can't know for sure if that's why anything is happening.
00:15:59.160 But it would be a lucky accident if they didn't do it intentionally.
00:16:03.920 The Taliban, meanwhile, is not only trying to hunt down people who helped the Americans,
00:16:13.520 but in at least one case, and I feel there's a big risk there'll be more of this,
00:16:18.640 killing the family members of the people they're looking for.
00:16:21.980 So if the family members won't give up the family member, you know, and tell you where they are,
00:16:27.820 they kill the family members.
00:16:30.120 So if you're not trying hard enough to get out of Afghanistan with your whole family,
00:16:36.660 maybe you ought to try harder.
00:16:38.380 And I suspect that there will be a number of Afghans, and this is just a horrible thought,
00:16:42.560 there will be a number of Afghans who helped America who will either surrender and be killed,
00:16:49.420 knowing that they'll be killed.
00:16:52.620 Let's get rid of Dr. Johnson.
00:16:54.320 He's just like my mascot.
00:16:57.680 Goodbye.
00:17:00.000 He's like my biggest troll.
00:17:02.900 I have to ban him every day.
00:17:04.400 But I've got a feeling that you'll see Afghans either killing themselves or surrendering to be killed
00:17:13.160 so that their families are not killed.
00:17:15.940 I mean, I can't imagine anything more horrible than what's going to happen after the Taliban takes complete control.
00:17:22.880 All right, in the category of Trump was right, one of my better predictions,
00:17:27.060 which was that as days went by, Trump would look more right.
00:17:31.880 But the history would give him a much better grade than the news was giving him while he was in office.
00:17:40.640 And here we go again.
00:17:42.180 The Supreme Court ruled against the Biden administration
00:17:45.140 in its attempt to end the Remain in Mexico program.
00:17:49.160 So Trump had that deal where the immigrants could be,
00:17:52.420 the illegal immigrants could be kept in Mexico.
00:17:55.480 Biden tried to end it.
00:17:57.120 And the Supreme Court, I can't understand the details of this,
00:18:01.140 but they basically kept it in place.
00:18:03.960 Now, that doesn't mean it'll happen, does it?
00:18:07.320 Does that mean we'll actually go back to remain in place?
00:18:10.000 I feel like that's not going to happen,
00:18:11.440 so I don't know if this story has any importance.
00:18:14.600 Because, I don't know,
00:18:17.740 I just don't see that you could force the government to do this
00:18:20.700 if they don't want to do it.
00:18:21.640 I feel like Biden will have more options to not do it.
00:18:25.720 But,
00:18:26.600 Supreme Court ruled with Trump.
00:18:31.180 And I think we can see that Trump was better on immigration,
00:18:34.260 probably would have been better on Afghanistan,
00:18:36.520 or we believe it.
00:18:38.060 You know, no way to know.
00:18:43.380 Alright.
00:18:45.260 Who predicted this?
00:18:46.840 Alright, let's see how many of you, years ago,
00:18:50.640 predicted this.
00:18:52.620 That China's birth rate is so low
00:18:55.740 that they've got a problem.
00:18:58.340 So,
00:18:59.800 your,
00:19:01.540 did anybody think that China
00:19:03.100 would stop reproducing?
00:19:05.540 Now we know
00:19:06.500 that China had that two,
00:19:09.560 or is it one child,
00:19:10.560 or two child policy,
00:19:11.680 the one child policy,
00:19:12.660 where they were trying to stop overpopulation?
00:19:17.600 Did you ever think
00:19:18.560 that China would go from
00:19:19.740 trying to stop
00:19:21.400 growth of population
00:19:23.060 that's too much
00:19:24.120 to having a crisis of too few?
00:19:28.720 Somebody says
00:19:29.500 Musk predicted it.
00:19:30.720 But did he predict it
00:19:31.860 20 years ago,
00:19:32.880 is what I'm asking.
00:19:33.960 It's the 20 years ago
00:19:35.200 that's the hard part.
00:19:36.620 I think everybody predicted it
00:19:38.900 in the last five years.
00:19:41.040 Because the data showed it.
00:19:42.660 So now China is saying
00:19:44.020 that you can have up to three kids,
00:19:45.780 and the Chinese women
00:19:47.220 are saying,
00:19:47.840 no thanks.
00:19:49.340 Hey, you can have three kids now.
00:19:51.640 Uh,
00:19:52.280 no thanks.
00:19:53.700 Now here's the thing.
00:19:56.660 Play this out to the future.
00:19:59.700 Let's say China
00:20:00.560 becomes
00:20:01.600 an increasingly crappy place
00:20:03.860 to live and reproduce.
00:20:05.220 And let's say
00:20:06.640 that the Chinese people
00:20:08.100 don't have enough money
00:20:09.140 in their economy
00:20:10.760 that want three kids.
00:20:12.660 So let's say
00:20:13.800 that China's
00:20:14.540 demographic problem
00:20:16.800 just keeps getting worse.
00:20:19.140 Compare that
00:20:19.880 to the United States.
00:20:21.520 Now I think
00:20:22.300 the birth rate
00:20:23.520 in a lot of
00:20:24.460 industrialized countries
00:20:26.040 is decreasing
00:20:27.160 or going negative.
00:20:28.720 So if the United States
00:20:30.020 did not have immigration,
00:20:32.280 could it
00:20:33.320 remain
00:20:34.100 a top country?
00:20:36.060 I think the answer
00:20:36.700 is no.
00:20:37.160 because I think
00:20:38.320 the United States
00:20:38.980 would not have
00:20:39.640 a birth rate
00:20:40.460 that would support
00:20:41.880 our dominant economic
00:20:44.040 position into the future.
00:20:45.520 I'm talking 20,
00:20:46.440 30 years into the future.
00:20:48.400 And so,
00:20:49.160 here's the question.
00:20:51.480 Does immigration,
00:20:52.840 and the fact that
00:20:53.560 the United States
00:20:54.340 will always have
00:20:55.220 some form of it,
00:20:56.620 whereas China
00:20:57.380 will probably not,
00:20:58.400 is that a competitive
00:21:00.820 advantage
00:21:01.380 or disadvantage?
00:21:02.500 Go.
00:21:03.520 Now here I'm assuming
00:21:04.540 that we control
00:21:05.440 our immigration
00:21:06.140 so it's not just
00:21:06.960 open borders.
00:21:08.020 I think we're going
00:21:09.380 to go back
00:21:09.780 to a better control.
00:21:12.060 But if the U.S.
00:21:13.160 can bring in
00:21:13.920 good people
00:21:14.800 or just people,
00:21:16.160 you know,
00:21:16.280 just bodies,
00:21:17.560 does that give us
00:21:19.040 an advantage
00:21:19.480 in the long run
00:21:20.080 over China?
00:21:21.940 And I'd be interested,
00:21:23.340 and I'm just,
00:21:23.720 I'm seeing advantage,
00:21:25.800 disadvantage,
00:21:26.620 yes.
00:21:27.960 I think China
00:21:29.080 is doomed
00:21:30.300 unless they open
00:21:32.120 their borders
00:21:32.600 and I don't
00:21:33.020 see that happening.
00:21:35.000 Do you?
00:21:37.020 And then here's
00:21:38.080 the second part
00:21:38.820 of this
00:21:39.100 and the fun part.
00:21:40.480 As you know,
00:21:41.360 we're in a long-term
00:21:42.320 sort of a cold war
00:21:44.540 with China,
00:21:45.780 meaning that
00:21:46.460 we're trying to,
00:21:47.720 they're trying to
00:21:48.420 persuade our public
00:21:49.660 and we're,
00:21:50.640 they're trying to
00:21:51.220 steal our,
00:21:52.100 you know,
00:21:52.560 digital assets
00:21:53.440 and everything,
00:21:54.560 sending us fentanyl.
00:21:55.620 So they're doing
00:21:56.040 all these things.
00:21:57.780 I don't know
00:21:58.280 what we're doing
00:21:58.800 in return.
00:22:00.280 But I'll tell you
00:22:00.840 what we could do
00:22:01.560 in return.
00:22:02.600 We could persuade
00:22:04.660 Chinese citizens
00:22:05.820 to have fewer kids
00:22:07.100 and it would
00:22:09.000 destroy China
00:22:09.860 in 30 years.
00:22:11.720 Now,
00:22:12.240 how hard would it be
00:22:13.660 to persuade people
00:22:14.920 to have fewer kids?
00:22:16.960 Not that hard.
00:22:19.700 In terms of things
00:22:21.080 which you can
00:22:21.780 and cannot persuade
00:22:22.700 people to do,
00:22:24.020 that would be
00:22:25.140 one you could.
00:22:26.620 Because we see
00:22:27.460 that people
00:22:27.980 are being persuaded
00:22:28.780 by their,
00:22:29.320 mostly by their
00:22:30.600 economic expectations.
00:22:32.820 So the reason
00:22:33.340 that the Chinese women
00:22:34.200 are saying no thanks
00:22:35.120 on the three children
00:22:35.920 is they don't think
00:22:36.700 they can afford it.
00:22:38.100 They don't think
00:22:38.460 the economy
00:22:39.000 will allow them
00:22:39.660 to easily have
00:22:40.300 three children.
00:22:41.880 So could you
00:22:42.560 persuade
00:22:43.020 the population
00:22:44.900 of China
00:22:45.440 through indirect means,
00:22:47.620 you know,
00:22:47.960 intel,
00:22:48.860 agencies,
00:22:49.660 etc.
00:22:49.840 Could you persuade
00:22:51.200 Chinese students
00:22:52.120 or the young
00:22:53.220 Chinese people
00:22:53.880 that it's a dumb idea
00:22:55.560 to have three children
00:22:56.380 because you can't
00:22:58.280 afford it?
00:22:59.900 Yeah, you could.
00:23:01.400 As persuadable things,
00:23:03.340 that's pretty persuadable.
00:23:05.140 Now, if you tried
00:23:05.740 to tell them
00:23:06.260 to have no children,
00:23:07.620 good luck, right?
00:23:08.500 That would be
00:23:08.940 working against
00:23:09.640 their biology too hard.
00:23:10.740 You probably
00:23:11.000 couldn't do that.
00:23:11.700 But you could get
00:23:13.040 people from three
00:23:13.920 to two
00:23:14.500 pretty easily, right?
00:23:18.340 You just make it
00:23:19.300 look like having
00:23:19.900 three children
00:23:20.500 is a frickin' nightmare
00:23:21.540 and having two
00:23:23.060 is, yeah,
00:23:23.880 you did your job.
00:23:24.720 You're a good person.
00:23:26.980 So, yes,
00:23:27.800 we could destroy China
00:23:29.380 with persuasion
00:23:32.120 about how many
00:23:32.820 children they should have.
00:23:34.980 Completely doable.
00:23:36.520 And we could
00:23:37.200 start that today.
00:23:38.020 I mean, you know,
00:23:39.060 it would be
00:23:39.240 a long-term project.
00:23:40.880 But you could destroy
00:23:42.020 the whole economy
00:23:43.260 by telling them
00:23:44.180 to stop having kids.
00:23:45.900 All right.
00:23:47.400 Years ago,
00:23:48.260 I had the following idea
00:23:49.500 for how to solve
00:23:50.720 Afghanistan.
00:23:52.040 I don't remember
00:23:52.820 if I ever said it publicly.
00:23:54.840 So, if anybody
00:23:55.740 ever heard me
00:23:56.260 say it publicly,
00:23:57.380 let me know.
00:23:58.080 And the idea
00:23:58.520 looked like this.
00:23:59.980 You know that anybody
00:24:00.840 who goes into Afghanistan
00:24:01.960 is in trouble, right?
00:24:04.620 So, Russia goes in
00:24:06.000 and they get, you know,
00:24:06.720 Soviet Union,
00:24:07.740 and they get crushed.
00:24:08.820 They have to leave.
00:24:10.400 United States goes in
00:24:11.600 and it's a debacle.
00:24:13.800 Now, China
00:24:14.420 is looking to
00:24:15.580 be the big influence.
00:24:17.920 That's what I always
00:24:18.860 wanted to happen.
00:24:19.600 Will the Taliban
00:24:22.180 operate
00:24:23.100 as freely,
00:24:25.220 let's say,
00:24:25.820 allowing terrorist
00:24:26.700 bases and stuff,
00:24:28.100 if China gets
00:24:29.040 more of a grip
00:24:29.800 on the country?
00:24:31.120 Because China,
00:24:32.000 I don't think
00:24:32.480 China's
00:24:33.000 ambition
00:24:34.920 is to just
00:24:35.620 do business
00:24:36.360 with the Taliban,
00:24:37.260 is it?
00:24:38.240 I think China's
00:24:39.260 ambition is to
00:24:40.020 dominate Afghanistan.
00:24:42.240 So,
00:24:42.940 if Afghanistan
00:24:43.600 is a long-range
00:24:45.560 risk
00:24:46.120 to the United States,
00:24:47.380 what's the best
00:24:49.040 way to control it?
00:24:52.180 Give it to China.
00:24:54.300 Because China
00:24:55.140 will control
00:24:55.720 the hell out of it.
00:24:57.400 Look at the Uyghurs,
00:24:58.900 right?
00:24:59.560 It's not good.
00:25:00.980 I'm not suggesting
00:25:01.740 this is moral
00:25:02.520 or ethical.
00:25:04.000 But China
00:25:05.020 could exert
00:25:07.480 enough control
00:25:08.260 over Afghanistan
00:25:09.140 with money
00:25:10.060 and all of their
00:25:11.160 various ways
00:25:11.820 that eventually
00:25:12.840 they would just
00:25:13.480 be able to control
00:25:14.840 whether Afghanistan
00:25:15.880 had any terrorist
00:25:16.780 camps.
00:25:18.300 One way or another.
00:25:19.540 I mean,
00:25:19.780 it might not be
00:25:20.380 militarily.
00:25:21.320 They might just say,
00:25:22.060 well,
00:25:22.900 we're going to stop
00:25:23.860 supporting you
00:25:25.420 financially
00:25:26.120 unless you get rid
00:25:27.720 of those camps
00:25:28.340 because they're
00:25:29.180 a problem for us.
00:25:30.160 It's going to mess
00:25:31.100 up our supply chain.
00:25:33.120 Because once China
00:25:34.100 gets a supply chain
00:25:35.540 from Afghanistan,
00:25:36.680 let's say it's
00:25:37.300 the rare minerals,
00:25:39.640 they're not going
00:25:40.240 to want to let go
00:25:40.880 of that
00:25:41.240 and they're not going
00:25:42.200 to want the Taliban
00:25:42.900 to control it.
00:25:44.040 They're going to want
00:25:44.500 to control it themselves.
00:25:45.380 So John says,
00:25:48.440 Scott is wrong
00:25:49.180 on China.
00:25:50.860 How do you know?
00:25:52.340 Can you see the future?
00:25:54.240 Did you know
00:25:54.920 that China would have
00:25:55.680 a population problem?
00:25:57.240 Did you know
00:25:57.760 the Taliban
00:25:58.220 would take over
00:25:59.020 in weeks?
00:26:00.540 You didn't know
00:26:01.260 any of that stuff.
00:26:02.460 You don't know
00:26:03.020 I'm wrong on China.
00:26:04.920 You just know
00:26:05.680 that I could be.
00:26:07.880 That's why you know.
00:26:09.240 You don't know
00:26:09.900 I'm wrong.
00:26:10.420 You just know
00:26:12.120 I could be.
00:26:12.840 And even I think that.
00:26:14.420 Even I think
00:26:15.000 I could be wrong.
00:26:16.560 But I don't see
00:26:18.880 enough of a strategic
00:26:20.320 advantage for China
00:26:21.500 except for the minerals
00:26:22.500 that maybe doesn't
00:26:25.860 compensate for the fact
00:26:26.980 that they might reduce
00:26:27.860 terrorism there
00:26:28.600 in a way that we couldn't
00:26:29.640 or wouldn't
00:26:30.440 because they'd be
00:26:31.000 more brutal about it.
00:26:32.780 So maybe we're safer
00:26:34.920 if China controls them
00:26:37.700 because China is one risk
00:26:39.280 whereas China
00:26:40.560 plus the Taliban
00:26:41.520 breeding terrorists
00:26:42.480 would be two risks.
00:26:44.520 So does it take
00:26:45.220 one risk
00:26:45.800 or does it take
00:26:46.560 two risks
00:26:47.000 and turn it
00:26:47.500 into one risk?
00:26:48.660 It could.
00:26:50.220 What are the chances?
00:26:52.300 Not high.
00:26:53.600 You know
00:26:53.760 not 100%
00:26:54.820 but it could happen.
00:26:58.340 Rasmussen Polls
00:26:59.500 asked
00:26:59.780 is the U.S.
00:27:00.340 safer from terrorist
00:27:01.160 attack
00:27:01.580 than it was
00:27:02.680 before 9-11?
00:27:04.520 What do you think?
00:27:05.680 Are we safer
00:27:06.460 from terrorist attack
00:27:07.500 now?
00:27:08.100 Or before 9-11?
00:27:11.940 Well
00:27:12.540 51%
00:27:13.660 say we're not
00:27:14.580 any safer
00:27:15.180 than before 9-11.
00:27:17.060 That's not good.
00:27:18.780 And 34%
00:27:19.720 say yes
00:27:20.160 we are safer.
00:27:22.300 I don't know
00:27:23.260 that this is
00:27:23.940 a question
00:27:24.600 that anybody
00:27:25.320 really can answer
00:27:26.300 because it only
00:27:27.400 takes one
00:27:28.020 big terrorist attack
00:27:29.340 to wipe out
00:27:30.880 all the average
00:27:31.840 of all the terrorist
00:27:32.840 attacks
00:27:33.260 you know
00:27:33.740 for decades.
00:27:34.420 so
00:27:35.400 I don't know
00:27:36.540 if there's
00:27:36.840 any such thing
00:27:37.400 as an average
00:27:38.100 risk
00:27:38.700 when it comes
00:27:39.580 to terrorism
00:27:40.120 so I'm not sure
00:27:41.400 the question
00:27:41.800 makes complete
00:27:42.460 sense
00:27:42.820 except
00:27:43.240 in how people
00:27:44.380 feel
00:27:44.840 and half
00:27:47.020 of the country
00:27:47.500 feels
00:27:48.000 that we're
00:27:48.920 not any safer.
00:27:49.700 I don't know
00:27:51.160 that they're
00:27:51.480 wrong
00:27:51.820 are they?
00:27:53.820 But we've had
00:27:54.920 you know
00:27:56.000 knock on wood
00:27:56.720 an unusually
00:27:59.400 good run
00:28:00.340 without terrorism
00:28:01.200 I have to think
00:28:02.240 that the complete
00:28:02.960 lack of
00:28:03.720 personal privacy
00:28:06.000 is what's
00:28:06.740 stopping all
00:28:07.240 the terror
00:28:07.580 attacks.
00:28:08.720 Would you say
00:28:09.220 that's true?
00:28:10.560 Don't you think
00:28:11.240 that your complete
00:28:12.100 and total
00:28:12.680 lack of privacy
00:28:13.700 is why there
00:28:15.200 have been
00:28:15.420 no terror
00:28:16.120 attacks?
00:28:17.540 I would love
00:28:18.620 to see somebody
00:28:19.300 who knows
00:28:19.600 what they're
00:28:19.900 talking about
00:28:20.480 look into that
00:28:21.300 but it feels
00:28:22.920 like there
00:28:23.920 would just
00:28:24.280 have to be
00:28:25.060 terrorist
00:28:25.540 attacks
00:28:26.140 like way
00:28:27.440 more of them
00:28:28.060 unless we
00:28:30.080 had so much
00:28:30.820 control of
00:28:31.800 information
00:28:32.360 that we
00:28:32.800 could see
00:28:33.140 them before
00:28:33.600 they start
00:28:34.100 and I think
00:28:35.660 that's where
00:28:36.060 we're at.
00:28:37.520 I think
00:28:38.080 I'm seeing
00:28:39.780 a little bit
00:28:40.220 of disagreement
00:28:40.720 on me.
00:28:41.900 What would
00:28:42.400 be the other
00:28:42.960 reason that
00:28:43.900 there are
00:28:44.120 no terrorist
00:28:44.620 attacks?
00:28:46.660 I'm seeing
00:28:47.320 lots of
00:28:47.760 no's
00:28:48.180 especially
00:28:48.620 on YouTube
00:28:49.660 but what
00:28:51.340 would be
00:28:52.260 the other
00:28:52.680 hypothesis?
00:28:54.960 Because you
00:28:55.840 are not
00:28:56.120 aware
00:28:56.580 that there
00:28:57.720 are attacks
00:28:58.200 but I'm
00:28:58.440 not aware
00:28:58.820 of them
00:28:59.100 maybe
00:29:00.300 they're
00:29:01.400 more
00:29:01.580 cyber
00:29:01.920 attacks.
00:29:06.140 But the
00:29:07.100 cyber
00:29:07.340 attacks
00:29:07.640 are
00:29:07.780 different
00:29:08.220 terrorists.
00:29:10.060 It's not
00:29:10.740 like one
00:29:11.380 morphed into
00:29:12.340 the other.
00:29:14.560 I can't
00:29:16.280 think of
00:29:16.580 any
00:29:16.860 mechanism
00:29:17.420 that would
00:29:18.400 have stopped
00:29:18.880 all the
00:29:19.300 presumed
00:29:20.040 terrorism
00:29:20.580 between 9-11
00:29:21.640 and now
00:29:22.200 except for
00:29:23.540 the complete
00:29:23.960 lack of
00:29:24.320 privacy.
00:29:24.600 privacy.
00:29:25.880 And I
00:29:26.620 remember
00:29:26.920 during 9-11
00:29:27.720 when the
00:29:28.880 privacy
00:29:29.260 question
00:29:29.920 became big
00:29:30.540 I always
00:29:30.940 thought
00:29:31.240 there's no
00:29:32.240 way it
00:29:32.500 can go
00:29:32.800 any other
00:29:33.180 way.
00:29:34.280 You will
00:29:34.760 lose all
00:29:35.260 of your
00:29:35.520 privacy
00:29:35.920 because you'll
00:29:37.300 prefer security.
00:29:38.760 Now you
00:29:39.040 didn't get a
00:29:39.440 choice.
00:29:40.120 It just
00:29:40.580 happened.
00:29:41.480 But I
00:29:42.060 feel like it
00:29:42.600 might have
00:29:43.240 been the
00:29:43.460 right choice.
00:29:44.520 We'll never
00:29:44.960 know.
00:29:45.560 Because you
00:29:46.000 don't know
00:29:46.340 what attacks
00:29:46.840 you prevented.
00:29:47.980 You only
00:29:48.560 know what
00:29:49.160 happened not
00:29:49.660 what didn't
00:29:50.060 happen.
00:29:50.320 Have you
00:29:51.780 seen the
00:29:52.160 Trump video
00:29:53.040 attack ad
00:29:53.900 on Biden
00:29:54.500 and his
00:29:55.100 Afghan
00:29:56.020 situation
00:29:56.600 and his
00:29:57.160 other
00:29:57.340 problems?
00:29:58.660 Oh my
00:29:59.340 God.
00:30:00.800 Trump
00:30:01.180 is back.
00:30:03.760 And it's
00:30:04.720 brutal.
00:30:05.840 If you
00:30:06.380 haven't seen
00:30:07.060 Trump's
00:30:07.760 brand new
00:30:08.220 video mocking
00:30:10.160 Biden and
00:30:10.900 attacking him
00:30:11.480 for everything
00:30:12.080 it juxtaposes
00:30:14.000 just horrible
00:30:15.040 things about
00:30:16.620 Afghanistan
00:30:17.240 and bad
00:30:18.320 decisions
00:30:18.800 and bad
00:30:19.740 predictions.
00:30:21.300 Every once
00:30:22.220 in a while
00:30:22.440 they'll show
00:30:22.720 him falling
00:30:23.180 on the
00:30:23.500 stairs walking
00:30:24.120 up to the
00:30:24.740 plane.
00:30:26.100 I mean it's
00:30:26.760 devastating.
00:30:27.960 So they'll
00:30:28.320 show Biden
00:30:29.220 messing up
00:30:29.940 something or
00:30:30.840 saying something
00:30:31.920 dumb like
00:30:32.540 Afghanistan will
00:30:33.820 go smoothly
00:30:34.480 a week before
00:30:35.680 it doesn't.
00:30:36.720 And then
00:30:37.100 they'll show
00:30:37.440 him gaffing
00:30:38.180 and they'll
00:30:38.880 show him
00:30:39.180 falling down
00:30:39.780 on the
00:30:40.100 stairs.
00:30:41.680 Oh it's
00:30:42.200 good.
00:30:43.200 It makes
00:30:43.880 the case that
00:30:44.720 he's not
00:30:46.160 in his right
00:30:47.500 mind and
00:30:48.680 not capable
00:30:49.300 really well.
00:30:50.700 He uses
00:30:51.620 visual persuasion
00:30:52.620 he uses
00:30:54.300 humor to
00:30:55.660 get your
00:30:55.980 attention
00:30:56.340 makes it
00:30:56.760 viral
00:30:57.060 and he
00:30:58.160 uses fear.
00:31:01.000 What's
00:31:01.560 better?
00:31:03.520 And by the
00:31:04.200 way how do
00:31:05.180 you put fear
00:31:05.920 and humor in
00:31:06.660 the same
00:31:06.980 video?
00:31:08.220 He did it.
00:31:09.620 Well whoever
00:31:10.440 made it did it
00:31:11.100 trumped into it
00:31:11.740 himself.
00:31:12.620 But it's
00:31:13.260 really good
00:31:13.980 like just in
00:31:15.180 persuasion.
00:31:15.700 So you
00:31:16.800 can make
00:31:17.140 your own
00:31:17.420 judgment
00:31:17.700 about whether
00:31:18.260 it's fair
00:31:18.820 or accurate
00:31:19.260 but persuasion
00:31:20.340 wise that's
00:31:22.180 damn good.
00:31:23.880 All right.
00:31:25.360 Apparently
00:31:25.860 there's a new
00:31:26.300 report Intel
00:31:26.980 report that
00:31:27.760 says about
00:31:29.080 the COVID
00:31:29.540 origin.
00:31:30.260 We don't
00:31:30.580 know where
00:31:30.960 it came
00:31:31.260 from.
00:31:32.440 Are you
00:31:32.800 surprised
00:31:33.300 about that?
00:31:34.300 When you
00:31:34.800 heard that
00:31:35.360 there was all
00:31:36.540 this effort
00:31:36.960 to find out
00:31:37.540 the real
00:31:38.280 origin of
00:31:38.920 the coronavirus
00:31:39.520 or at
00:31:41.140 least COVID-19
00:31:42.240 did you think
00:31:43.820 they were
00:31:44.100 going to find
00:31:44.580 it?
00:31:46.160 Because I
00:31:47.000 didn't.
00:31:47.380 I heard that
00:31:47.840 and I
00:31:48.600 thought how
00:31:49.420 the hell
00:31:50.000 would you
00:31:50.920 know where
00:31:51.220 it came
00:31:51.540 from?
00:31:52.980 It just
00:31:53.660 doesn't seem
00:31:54.140 doable does
00:31:54.920 it?
00:31:56.160 And then
00:31:56.780 sure enough
00:31:57.180 it wasn't
00:31:57.560 done.
00:31:58.280 Now I
00:31:58.520 suppose if
00:31:58.960 you had
00:31:59.160 some kind
00:31:59.500 of whistle
00:32:00.460 blower or
00:32:01.520 can you do
00:32:02.960 genetic
00:32:03.400 testing to
00:32:04.320 find out
00:32:04.720 that the
00:32:05.000 virus must
00:32:05.740 have come
00:32:06.100 from somewhere?
00:32:07.640 I don't
00:32:07.940 know.
00:32:08.120 To me it
00:32:08.440 just didn't
00:32:08.760 seem possible
00:32:09.340 when it
00:32:09.720 started and
00:32:10.460 sure enough.
00:32:13.880 Apparently
00:32:14.320 China is
00:32:14.900 pushing a
00:32:15.360 pretty hard
00:32:15.780 persuasion
00:32:16.980 war especially
00:32:19.100 in their
00:32:19.680 own country.
00:32:21.280 So within
00:32:21.720 China you're
00:32:22.480 being told
00:32:22.880 that the
00:32:23.220 virus probably
00:32:24.040 originated in
00:32:25.360 the United
00:32:25.780 States at
00:32:27.160 Fort Kendrick.
00:32:29.940 And I
00:32:30.240 guess there
00:32:30.540 used to be
00:32:31.020 some viral
00:32:33.120 research there.
00:32:34.920 Not anymore.
00:32:36.220 But the
00:32:36.540 well I don't
00:32:38.100 know if it's
00:32:38.420 not anymore.
00:32:39.400 But anyway
00:32:39.700 China is
00:32:40.220 using their
00:32:41.620 control over
00:32:42.660 their own
00:32:42.980 media to
00:32:43.800 tell their
00:32:44.160 local population
00:32:45.060 that you
00:32:45.980 know probably
00:32:46.620 probably derived
00:32:48.080 from is it
00:32:50.860 Dietrich?
00:32:51.480 Yeah.
00:32:52.380 Fort Dietrich.
00:32:53.740 So China is
00:32:55.800 actually selling
00:32:56.560 this story.
00:32:57.400 So if you
00:32:57.780 live in China
00:32:58.480 the news you
00:33:00.080 heard is that
00:33:00.700 the coronavirus
00:33:01.400 came from the
00:33:02.100 United States
00:33:02.780 and specifically
00:33:03.480 from that
00:33:04.080 fort.
00:33:05.800 Now if
00:33:07.520 China is doing
00:33:08.320 this to us
00:33:09.460 and you know
00:33:10.340 just making
00:33:10.860 up news like
00:33:11.740 this are we
00:33:13.380 doing the
00:33:13.740 same thing?
00:33:15.380 Can anybody
00:33:16.220 tell me if
00:33:17.160 our intel
00:33:18.460 people are
00:33:19.000 putting fake
00:33:19.640 news into
00:33:20.160 China?
00:33:21.800 I assume
00:33:22.700 so.
00:33:23.640 Right?
00:33:24.180 But why don't
00:33:24.740 we ever hear
00:33:25.200 about that?
00:33:25.840 It's interesting.
00:33:29.820 All right.
00:33:33.540 I have
00:33:34.400 one analogy
00:33:36.980 I would like
00:33:37.600 to give you.
00:33:38.780 This would be
00:33:39.560 the point where
00:33:40.520 the people who
00:33:41.080 don't like
00:33:41.620 hearing the
00:33:42.240 persuasion or
00:33:43.280 logic discussions
00:33:45.360 that involve
00:33:46.860 vaccinations.
00:33:48.940 This is where
00:33:49.780 you can turn it
00:33:50.540 off.
00:33:51.460 But I'm not
00:33:52.260 talking about
00:33:52.740 whether you
00:33:53.300 should get
00:33:53.580 it or not.
00:33:54.040 The only
00:33:54.260 question is
00:33:55.020 how do you
00:33:56.180 explain that
00:33:57.020 vaccinations
00:33:57.580 might cause
00:33:58.660 more variance?
00:33:59.520 cognitive dissonance?
00:34:00.520 And I asked
00:34:01.160 that question
00:34:01.620 and got all
00:34:02.460 kinds of
00:34:03.040 cognitive dissonance.
00:34:04.060 How do I know
00:34:05.080 it's cognitive
00:34:05.700 dissonance?
00:34:06.740 I don't know
00:34:07.880 that every answer
00:34:09.060 was cognitive
00:34:09.700 dissonance.
00:34:10.880 I do know
00:34:11.580 that almost all
00:34:13.020 of the answers
00:34:13.480 were cognitive
00:34:14.140 dissonance
00:34:14.800 because they were
00:34:15.900 different.
00:34:17.160 And most of them
00:34:18.180 made no sense.
00:34:19.540 It's really easy
00:34:20.360 to see that
00:34:21.860 it's cognitive
00:34:23.460 dissonance.
00:34:23.980 But I try
00:34:26.420 to come up
00:34:27.160 with a way
00:34:28.500 to make my
00:34:29.200 point and I'm
00:34:30.060 going to test
00:34:30.500 it out.
00:34:31.740 And I've told
00:34:32.360 you many times
00:34:32.940 that analogies
00:34:33.840 don't replace
00:34:35.620 reason, right?
00:34:36.920 So if I tried
00:34:37.700 to make an
00:34:38.100 argument with
00:34:38.740 an analogy,
00:34:40.020 you'd say to
00:34:40.880 yourself, well
00:34:41.500 that's a bad
00:34:42.000 argument.
00:34:42.420 You've said so
00:34:42.900 yourself.
00:34:44.000 So see what
00:34:44.600 I'm doing here.
00:34:45.700 If I've told
00:34:46.240 you analogies
00:34:47.060 do not persuade,
00:34:48.820 why am I going
00:34:50.160 to use one?
00:34:50.760 Here it goes.
00:34:52.000 If you shoot
00:34:52.820 all the horses
00:34:53.380 in one country,
00:34:55.300 will it cause
00:34:56.040 rabbits to
00:34:56.740 evolve more
00:34:57.480 quickly in a
00:34:58.380 different country?
00:34:59.900 Go.
00:35:01.040 What do you
00:35:01.400 think?
00:35:01.940 If you shoot
00:35:02.640 all the horses
00:35:03.340 in one country
00:35:04.780 that has no
00:35:05.840 connection whatsoever
00:35:06.720 to a separate
00:35:07.620 country,
00:35:08.640 would it make
00:35:09.380 the rabbits
00:35:10.000 in the second
00:35:10.680 country evolve
00:35:12.260 faster?
00:35:14.640 No.
00:35:15.500 Because there's
00:35:16.060 no causal
00:35:16.680 connection
00:35:17.280 whatsoever,
00:35:17.880 right?
00:35:18.880 No way.
00:35:20.620 But,
00:35:20.980 if you make
00:35:23.780 a vaccination
00:35:24.460 that works
00:35:26.500 on both
00:35:27.100 regular
00:35:28.420 coronavirus,
00:35:29.340 let's call
00:35:29.700 it alpha,
00:35:30.580 and the
00:35:31.240 variant,
00:35:31.900 delta,
00:35:32.780 it works
00:35:33.200 on both
00:35:33.580 of them,
00:35:33.900 but it
00:35:34.120 works a
00:35:34.520 little
00:35:34.640 better
00:35:35.040 on the
00:35:36.160 original.
00:35:36.520 Will that
00:35:38.540 cause the
00:35:39.500 delta
00:35:39.840 or other
00:35:41.920 variants to
00:35:42.800 be more
00:35:43.280 aggressive?
00:35:43.740 And is
00:35:47.080 that exactly
00:35:47.740 like shooting
00:35:49.700 horses in
00:35:50.340 one country
00:35:50.980 causes rabbits
00:35:53.060 to reproduce
00:35:53.660 differently in
00:35:54.380 a different
00:35:54.700 country?
00:35:56.300 Well,
00:35:57.300 here's the
00:35:57.900 question.
00:35:58.920 If all the
00:35:59.700 viruses were
00:36:00.380 competing for
00:36:01.120 resources,
00:36:03.280 somebody says
00:36:03.900 that's a
00:36:04.280 terrible analogy.
00:36:06.320 Right.
00:36:07.920 It's a
00:36:08.740 terrible analogy
00:36:09.580 and here's
00:36:11.600 the punchline.
00:36:12.180 it's the
00:36:13.620 main reason
00:36:14.280 people are
00:36:15.020 arguing that
00:36:16.680 the vaccinations
00:36:18.300 cause more
00:36:19.860 variants.
00:36:21.180 That analogy
00:36:22.500 is their
00:36:23.400 reason.
00:36:24.220 I just
00:36:24.600 changed the
00:36:25.220 country and
00:36:25.700 the animals.
00:36:26.920 So the
00:36:27.200 argument is
00:36:28.160 that if you
00:36:29.240 suppress the
00:36:30.380 one variant,
00:36:32.640 it makes the
00:36:33.580 other variant
00:36:34.380 stronger.
00:36:36.180 How?
00:36:36.980 How does it
00:36:38.800 do that?
00:36:40.280 Now,
00:36:40.820 that's the
00:36:41.160 question I
00:36:41.520 ask.
00:36:41.720 I'm asking
00:36:42.100 what's the
00:36:42.500 mechanism?
00:36:43.420 Don't give
00:36:43.980 me an
00:36:44.240 analogy.
00:36:45.600 Tell me,
00:36:46.680 well,
00:36:47.120 the delta
00:36:47.700 variant and
00:36:48.780 the alpha
00:36:49.380 variant,
00:36:50.080 they have
00:36:50.860 little fists.
00:36:52.180 This would
00:36:52.540 be the
00:36:52.780 mechanism.
00:36:53.240 They have
00:36:53.420 little fists
00:36:53.980 and when
00:36:54.760 they meet
00:36:55.220 each other
00:36:55.600 inside a
00:36:56.000 body,
00:36:56.580 they start
00:36:56.960 punching.
00:36:58.040 And the
00:36:58.380 delta variant
00:36:59.000 punches harder
00:36:59.940 so it knocks
00:37:01.080 out that
00:37:01.500 other variant
00:37:02.100 and when it
00:37:03.400 knocks it
00:37:03.840 out,
00:37:04.540 it has
00:37:04.920 sex with
00:37:05.400 it just
00:37:05.980 before it
00:37:06.420 dies and
00:37:07.280 creates yet
00:37:07.760 another
00:37:08.040 variant.
00:37:08.440 Now,
00:37:10.220 that would
00:37:10.480 be a
00:37:10.860 mechanism.
00:37:11.820 So that
00:37:12.000 would be
00:37:12.300 describing in
00:37:13.760 physical terms
00:37:14.800 how it is
00:37:16.380 that the
00:37:16.840 vaccination may
00:37:17.580 weaken that
00:37:18.320 variant and
00:37:19.360 then the
00:37:19.600 other one
00:37:19.860 would beat
00:37:20.240 it up with
00:37:21.200 its little
00:37:21.580 fists and
00:37:22.880 take over
00:37:23.360 and have
00:37:24.560 sex with
00:37:25.000 it and
00:37:25.240 then create
00:37:25.580 another
00:37:25.840 variant.
00:37:26.960 Now,
00:37:27.260 that doesn't
00:37:27.700 happen,
00:37:29.100 but I'm
00:37:30.180 looking for
00:37:30.640 somebody to
00:37:31.200 describe
00:37:31.780 physically how
00:37:33.620 a vaccination
00:37:34.220 that works
00:37:35.000 well on
00:37:35.640 the alpha
00:37:36.700 could have
00:37:37.860 any impact
00:37:38.740 on the
00:37:39.800 delta.
00:37:42.480 Now,
00:37:43.080 the best
00:37:43.600 that anybody's
00:37:44.200 come up
00:37:44.560 with,
00:37:45.020 and it's
00:37:45.400 only a few
00:37:45.900 people,
00:37:46.740 is that the
00:37:47.480 delta wouldn't
00:37:48.060 have any
00:37:48.460 food because
00:37:50.760 people would
00:37:51.760 get infected
00:37:52.300 with the
00:37:53.140 other one and
00:37:54.440 then the delta
00:37:54.960 would be,
00:37:55.420 oh,
00:37:55.640 I can't go
00:37:56.120 anywhere because
00:37:56.800 everybody got
00:37:57.940 infected with
00:37:58.580 the other one
00:37:59.040 and that's
00:37:59.800 close enough so
00:38:00.880 I can't get
00:38:01.780 a foothold.
00:38:02.240 But that's
00:38:03.720 not the
00:38:04.020 reason.
00:38:05.280 There's still
00:38:05.860 so many people
00:38:07.980 can get
00:38:08.340 infected,
00:38:09.120 including people
00:38:09.900 who are
00:38:10.080 vaccinated,
00:38:11.620 that both,
00:38:13.800 every variant
00:38:14.460 has plenty of
00:38:15.160 food and
00:38:16.260 plenty of
00:38:16.640 places to
00:38:17.140 go.
00:38:18.360 So my
00:38:19.640 horse and
00:38:20.640 rabbit analogy
00:38:21.500 is pretty
00:38:22.140 close.
00:38:23.540 You shouldn't
00:38:23.940 make decisions
00:38:24.540 on analogies,
00:38:25.540 that's still
00:38:26.380 true.
00:38:27.140 But my
00:38:27.820 analogy was
00:38:28.560 to point out
00:38:29.100 the absurdity
00:38:29.960 of the other
00:38:30.920 analogies.
00:38:31.540 When you
00:38:32.400 heard my
00:38:32.760 analogy and
00:38:33.260 you said
00:38:33.580 to yourself,
00:38:34.020 well,
00:38:34.120 that's stupid
00:38:34.680 because it
00:38:35.360 has nothing
00:38:35.760 to do with
00:38:36.200 viruses.
00:38:37.500 That is the
00:38:38.320 point.
00:38:39.180 The analogies
00:38:39.800 are all stupid
00:38:40.460 and they have
00:38:41.220 nothing to do
00:38:41.720 with viruses.
00:38:42.560 If you're
00:38:43.180 thinking in
00:38:43.860 terms of an
00:38:44.420 analogy,
00:38:45.840 you don't
00:38:46.700 know the
00:38:46.960 mechanism because
00:38:48.440 the analogy
00:38:48.900 doesn't tell
00:38:49.440 you, well,
00:38:50.140 they have
00:38:50.360 little fists.
00:38:51.560 It just
00:38:52.040 tells you
00:38:52.400 something
00:38:52.660 happened analogously
00:38:54.760 to something
00:38:55.300 else.
00:38:55.820 No mechanism
00:38:56.460 noted.
00:38:57.460 So this is
00:39:00.080 my current
00:39:00.580 thinking.
00:39:01.940 It might
00:39:02.560 be true
00:39:03.000 that if
00:39:04.300 your vaccination
00:39:05.740 works better
00:39:06.560 on the
00:39:06.960 original virus,
00:39:08.140 it would
00:39:08.560 suppress it
00:39:09.260 more, and
00:39:10.380 then the
00:39:10.700 delta, there
00:39:11.360 would be more
00:39:11.860 of them.
00:39:12.940 Is that a
00:39:13.900 case of it
00:39:16.280 being caused,
00:39:17.340 or did you
00:39:18.500 just make one
00:39:19.120 of them less?
00:39:20.620 Let's say you
00:39:21.420 have a hundred
00:39:22.560 jelly beans that
00:39:23.400 are red and
00:39:24.000 a hundred jelly
00:39:24.660 beans that are
00:39:25.280 blue, and you
00:39:26.700 eat all the red
00:39:27.520 ones.
00:39:27.840 Did that
00:39:29.100 promote the
00:39:29.820 growth of
00:39:31.140 blue ones?
00:39:32.180 No.
00:39:33.380 You just
00:39:33.720 ate the red
00:39:34.180 ones.
00:39:35.100 So if the
00:39:35.740 vaccination eats
00:39:37.560 all of the
00:39:38.040 old virus,
00:39:38.820 you know, the
00:39:39.100 original
00:39:39.540 coronavirus, did
00:39:41.820 it have any
00:39:42.320 effect on the
00:39:43.080 delta?
00:39:44.700 No.
00:39:45.980 It was just
00:39:46.760 doing other
00:39:47.240 things.
00:39:48.380 As long as
00:39:49.180 everybody has
00:39:49.660 enough hosts
00:39:50.200 and food, and
00:39:50.900 that's the
00:39:51.220 case, because
00:39:51.940 vaccinated people
00:39:52.680 still get both
00:39:53.340 viruses.
00:39:54.340 So there's
00:39:54.900 plenty of hosts,
00:39:55.580 there's plenty
00:39:55.920 of food.
00:39:57.020 Every virus
00:39:57.760 should grow as
00:39:58.380 fast as it
00:39:58.940 wants to.
00:40:00.120 I don't see
00:40:00.580 how vaccinations
00:40:01.160 make any
00:40:01.700 difference.
00:40:05.080 Scott is
00:40:05.640 really reaching
00:40:06.240 today.
00:40:07.080 So that's a
00:40:07.580 cognitive dissonance.
00:40:09.600 Actually, let me
00:40:10.280 read some of the
00:40:10.780 cognitive dissonance
00:40:11.560 in the comments.
00:40:12.540 I'll tell you
00:40:12.940 how to spot it.
00:40:16.660 It lowers the
00:40:17.560 number of
00:40:17.960 replicating virus.
00:40:20.300 What's your
00:40:20.800 reason, though?
00:40:21.320 What's the
00:40:21.680 mechanism?
00:40:22.020 Yes, because the
00:40:25.340 vaccine allows
00:40:26.220 asymptomatic to
00:40:27.060 spread, and
00:40:27.740 people don't
00:40:28.240 realize it.
00:40:29.560 That is not a
00:40:30.340 reason.
00:40:31.540 Let's see if
00:40:32.060 over on YouTube.
00:40:34.020 If both jelly
00:40:35.120 beans are
00:40:35.500 reproducing all of
00:40:36.920 one color, the
00:40:37.640 other color will
00:40:38.320 have more of it.
00:40:39.720 Right.
00:40:41.060 But it wasn't
00:40:41.900 caused by anything.
00:40:43.340 It was just two
00:40:44.140 independent things.
00:40:45.020 The vaccines are
00:40:49.380 about profit, but
00:40:50.920 that doesn't
00:40:51.340 explain it.
00:40:53.520 Does anybody
00:40:54.360 here see anything
00:40:55.260 that looks like
00:40:55.880 pushback on my
00:40:56.780 point?
00:40:57.740 Because I don't.
00:40:58.800 I haven't seen
00:40:59.300 it yet.
00:41:02.280 The receptors
00:41:03.240 are blocked by
00:41:04.160 the alpha
00:41:04.620 variant.
00:41:07.560 The receptors
00:41:08.560 are blocked.
00:41:09.160 So you're
00:41:09.440 telling me that
00:41:10.060 if somebody gets
00:41:10.780 the alpha, then
00:41:12.380 they can't get
00:41:13.040 the variant.
00:41:13.740 So basically
00:41:15.240 you're saying
00:41:15.780 that the
00:41:16.320 original virus
00:41:17.800 acts like a
00:41:18.560 vaccine against
00:41:20.000 the variant,
00:41:21.720 except that
00:41:23.340 that only
00:41:24.120 matters if
00:41:25.760 the variant
00:41:26.260 doesn't have
00:41:26.840 enough food.
00:41:28.140 And it does.
00:41:29.500 Because the
00:41:29.900 variant will
00:41:30.500 spread whether
00:41:31.100 you're vaccinated
00:41:31.680 or not,
00:41:32.600 right?
00:41:34.560 So as long as
00:41:35.660 there's plenty of
00:41:36.180 food, they're
00:41:36.560 both going to
00:41:36.980 spread.
00:41:37.280 Anyway, that's
00:41:37.680 my whole point.
00:41:39.520 I saved it to
00:41:40.440 the end so all
00:41:41.220 of you can bail
00:41:41.820 out if you don't
00:41:42.600 like that kind
00:41:43.420 of thinking.
00:41:49.060 Scott, we
00:41:49.680 need to
00:41:49.980 recommend where
00:41:50.640 we learn
00:41:51.100 about Bitcoin
00:41:52.880 and Ethereum.
00:41:56.560 Where to
00:41:57.140 learn about it?
00:41:57.760 So let's say
00:41:58.340 you have no
00:41:59.300 knowledge whatsoever
00:42:00.080 about cryptocurrency.
00:42:02.800 Let me give
00:42:03.440 you some
00:42:03.720 knowledge right
00:42:04.260 now.
00:42:05.940 Well, I
00:42:06.600 could give
00:42:06.900 you a micro
00:42:07.320 lesson on
00:42:07.840 crypto, but
00:42:09.260 maybe I should
00:42:09.880 do that separately.
00:42:10.700 At one point,
00:42:11.180 I did a
00:42:11.480 micro lesson on
00:42:12.180 crypto, and
00:42:13.640 I'll probably
00:42:14.080 do another
00:42:14.440 one.
00:42:14.620 That's a good
00:42:14.960 idea.
00:42:16.760 It's just
00:42:17.380 survival of the
00:42:18.160 fittest, somebody
00:42:18.960 says.
00:42:19.780 Any vaccine that
00:42:20.640 doesn't stop the
00:42:21.400 spread entirely will
00:42:22.900 allow a surviving
00:42:23.760 virus to reproduce.
00:42:25.540 All right, now
00:42:26.060 that's definitely
00:42:28.560 not right.
00:42:29.660 But thank you for
00:42:30.320 the $10 to say
00:42:32.740 it.
00:42:32.920 Do you
00:42:34.240 understand that
00:42:34.900 there's no
00:42:35.260 such thing as
00:42:35.940 survival of the
00:42:37.040 fittest?
00:42:38.720 That that's a
00:42:40.300 hoax?
00:42:41.500 Not really a
00:42:42.340 hoax, but how
00:42:43.760 many people here
00:42:44.420 think survival of
00:42:45.300 the fittest is
00:42:46.040 actually a
00:42:46.720 scientific thing?
00:42:48.300 It's not.
00:42:49.740 When you were a
00:42:50.560 kid, it was.
00:42:51.800 They thought
00:42:52.280 survival of the
00:42:53.480 fittest was
00:42:53.940 actually how
00:42:54.500 evolution works,
00:42:55.860 but now we
00:42:56.520 know it's not.
00:42:57.760 Yeah, it's
00:42:58.100 survival of the
00:42:58.800 random.
00:42:59.760 There is no
00:43:00.520 survival of the
00:43:01.440 fittest in the
00:43:02.280 biological animal
00:43:03.520 kingdom.
00:43:04.600 That's not a
00:43:05.200 thing.
00:43:05.700 We used to
00:43:06.160 think it was.
00:43:07.160 Yeah, Stephen
00:43:07.780 J. Gould was
00:43:08.760 the top biological
00:43:11.040 scientist who
00:43:12.460 told us that.
00:43:14.640 So if your
00:43:15.680 argument depends
00:43:16.400 on survival of
00:43:17.180 the fittest, just
00:43:18.640 know that it
00:43:19.260 depends on
00:43:20.020 something that
00:43:20.480 doesn't exist.
00:43:22.060 And I would
00:43:22.640 say that 90%
00:43:24.060 of the people who
00:43:24.880 are looking at
00:43:25.720 this virus question
00:43:26.880 are saying,
00:43:28.120 well, it's
00:43:28.380 obvious.
00:43:29.260 Survival of the
00:43:29.960 fittest, just
00:43:31.000 apply it to the
00:43:31.620 virus.
00:43:32.280 Except survival
00:43:33.580 of the fittest
00:43:33.980 doesn't exist
00:43:34.620 anywhere.
00:43:35.880 So applying it
00:43:36.680 to the virus
00:43:37.160 takes something
00:43:37.740 that doesn't
00:43:38.280 exist, and
00:43:39.420 you're substituting
00:43:40.160 the thing that
00:43:40.660 doesn't exist as
00:43:41.540 your reasoning.
00:43:43.560 Natural selection
00:43:44.520 is basically
00:43:49.120 randomness.
00:43:55.000 How can we
00:43:55.800 tell if we
00:43:56.320 have a variant?
00:43:57.100 Apparently you
00:43:57.560 can't tell if you
00:43:58.260 get tested.
00:43:59.100 There has to be
00:43:59.560 some genetic
00:44:00.120 testing.
00:44:00.540 you're applying
00:44:04.520 a statistical
00:44:05.260 tool to
00:44:05.920 individuals.
00:44:08.380 Okay.
00:44:13.640 Random
00:44:14.160 selection.
00:44:15.160 Yes, it's
00:44:15.800 random selection.
00:44:17.200 Now, how many
00:44:17.620 people, so
00:44:19.000 Scott's a
00:44:19.520 creationist, I'm
00:44:22.220 a simulated
00:44:23.300 world guy.
00:44:24.280 So I don't
00:44:26.520 know that we
00:44:27.020 are a
00:44:27.320 simulation, that
00:44:28.520 this reality is
00:44:29.520 a computer
00:44:29.920 simulation, but
00:44:31.100 like Elon
00:44:32.040 Musk, I
00:44:32.720 agree that the
00:44:33.380 math says it
00:44:34.400 almost certainly
00:44:35.380 is.
00:44:36.100 So you don't
00:44:36.480 know for sure,
00:44:37.580 but almost
00:44:38.060 certainly, because
00:44:38.880 the math and
00:44:39.800 statistics of it
00:44:40.680 pretty much
00:44:41.280 guarantee it.
00:44:42.400 It comes close to
00:44:43.540 guaranteeing it.
00:44:45.260 How many
00:44:45.940 people, let me
00:44:47.260 ask you this
00:44:47.660 question, how
00:44:48.560 many people who
00:44:49.140 are watching this
00:44:49.800 believe that they
00:44:51.060 understood evolution
00:44:52.000 because they knew
00:44:52.820 what the survival
00:44:53.620 of the fittest was
00:44:54.740 all about and
00:44:55.800 just learned that
00:44:56.900 it's not a thing?
00:44:58.100 How many people
00:44:58.820 just learned that?
00:45:02.300 Will people with
00:45:03.340 natural immunity be
00:45:04.340 forced to get
00:45:04.900 yearly jabs?
00:45:06.740 Maybe.
00:45:07.900 There's a good
00:45:08.340 chance.
00:45:09.060 Apparently the
00:45:09.640 Pfizer booster is
00:45:10.960 really good.
00:45:12.620 So the booster
00:45:13.380 doesn't just take
00:45:14.260 you back to where
00:45:15.440 you were.
00:45:16.120 It takes you back
00:45:16.960 to many times
00:45:17.840 better than if you
00:45:18.700 only had two in
00:45:19.640 the first place.
00:45:20.860 So the booster
00:45:21.560 of the, of
00:45:23.600 one of the
00:45:24.100 shots, I
00:45:24.660 forget which
00:45:25.000 one, was a
00:45:25.980 J&J.
00:45:26.840 It's just
00:45:27.440 really, really
00:45:28.920 useful.
00:45:31.400 Scott, were
00:45:32.080 you on
00:45:32.520 prednisone when
00:45:33.340 you got your
00:45:33.880 Moderna?
00:45:34.500 No, I
00:45:34.920 wasn't.
00:45:35.260 I was off
00:45:35.660 prednisone for
00:45:36.320 over a year.
00:45:40.960 Yeah, which
00:45:41.640 booster was a
00:45:42.420 J&J?
00:45:42.980 I forget.
00:45:44.460 It wasn't
00:45:44.960 Moderna.
00:45:46.720 I think it
00:45:47.400 was J&J.
00:45:47.900 never believed
00:45:52.020 survival of the
00:45:52.820 fittest, otherwise
00:45:53.620 dinosaurs would
00:45:54.620 still be around.
00:45:55.400 That's not
00:45:55.820 true, because
00:45:57.740 there were some
00:45:59.300 environmental
00:45:59.740 things that
00:46:00.440 killed the
00:46:00.940 dinosaurs.
00:46:05.600 What are your
00:46:06.260 opinions on
00:46:06.720 Steve Bannon?
00:46:08.460 Well, he's
00:46:09.040 obviously, you
00:46:10.400 know, his
00:46:10.800 program, his
00:46:12.740 podcast is very
00:46:13.660 successful.
00:46:14.740 He makes a big
00:46:15.380 dent.
00:46:15.700 I would say
00:46:16.540 he has a
00:46:17.360 pretty big
00:46:17.860 influence on
00:46:21.400 the popular
00:46:22.320 culture.
00:46:22.920 Oh, I've got
00:46:23.320 to run.
00:46:23.860 I'll see you
00:46:24.340 guys later.