Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 31, 2021


Episode 1485 Scott Adams： Let Me Tell You About All the Fake News and Propaganda You're Watching Right Now


Episode Stats


Length

49 minutes

Words per minute

150.22614

Word count

7,374

Sentence count

528

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

24

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode of the podcast, we talk about China's new ban on minors playing video games, and why it might be better than the U.S. for our own drug addiction problem. Plus, we take a deep dive into China's propaganda machine.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Good morning and welcome to the best part of your entire day.
00:00:06.520 Yeah, and we're going to do something here very special.
00:00:09.960 Something that I totally haven't done yet today.
00:00:13.880 And it's called the simultaneous sip.
00:00:16.280 If you'd like to join me, all you need is a cup or mug or glass,
00:00:20.400 a tank or chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind.
00:00:24.880 Fill it with your favorite liquid and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.
00:00:32.000 The dopamine hit of the day, you think.
00:00:35.960 It's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now.
00:00:38.860 Go.
00:00:43.100 Ah, first one of the day, as far as you know.
00:00:49.740 All right, let's talk about something interesting for a change.
00:00:52.920 How would you like that?
00:00:55.080 It's a big change, I know.
00:00:57.880 But apparently China, I saw one report on this from the Spectator Index Twitter account.
00:01:06.280 And it says that China will limit minors to playing online games just three hours a week
00:01:12.180 with services limited to an hour each Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
00:01:16.560 So if you're a kid in China, the total amount of video games you can play is one hour for each of the three weekend days.
00:01:26.360 Now, what does that suggest?
00:01:31.560 Well, it suggests it might be boring to live in China if you're a teenager.
00:01:35.860 But it makes me wonder about the whole Chinese system versus the American system.
00:01:44.600 Because, you know, I think President Xi of China has made a point that their system should be superior in the future.
00:01:51.500 And they do have a few advantages.
00:01:54.120 Let me list a few.
00:01:56.100 Number one, they can block their teenagers from playing video games all day.
00:02:00.800 Is that good?
00:02:03.620 I don't know.
00:02:05.620 I really don't.
00:02:07.200 You know, your common sense tells you it's, you know, destroying brains.
00:02:11.520 But while kids are playing these video games, they're very stimulated.
00:02:16.920 And they're doing hand-eye coordination.
00:02:18.720 They've got to think and plan.
00:02:20.560 They're competing.
00:02:21.620 If they have their headphones on, they're talking to other people.
00:02:24.620 They're being social.
00:02:25.900 They're coordinating.
00:02:26.800 They're planning.
00:02:28.560 I'm not entirely sure that video games are bad for kids,
00:02:31.760 especially the ones where they've got the headphones on
00:02:34.360 and they're talking to their friends online at the same time they're playing and stuff.
00:02:37.760 I feel like they might be wrong about this.
00:02:42.360 Yeah, I get why they're doing it.
00:02:43.760 Probably every parent has the same impulse, right?
00:02:46.480 Your impulse and your common sense is you don't want kids staring at a screen
00:02:51.680 and playing with their thumbs eight hours a day.
00:02:56.140 But here's what else China can do that we can't do. 0.94
00:02:59.440 They can get much better control of their drug addiction.
00:03:02.800 Not only can the Chinese, with their harsh system and their full surveillance people, 1.00
00:03:10.080 not only can they keep people from getting addicted,
00:03:14.680 but they can make us addicted.
00:03:18.560 So they can send us their fentanyl and get their competitor addicted and dying like crazy,
00:03:25.760 while at the same time keeping their own public from having the same problem.
00:03:29.600 How big of a problem is addiction to modern society?
00:03:35.160 If you were to rate addiction on a scale of 1 to 10 for how big a problem it is to society,
00:03:42.220 it's like a 9, isn't it?
00:03:44.960 Yeah, I don't know, 10 is probably nuclear war or something, but it's like a 9.
00:03:51.980 And China will be in a much better shape for avoiding that 9-sized problem. 1.00
00:03:58.300 Here's another one.
00:04:01.960 I think in America we can't cheat as much against our rivals.
00:04:08.220 Now, this is sort of speculation, so I'm assuming this is true.
00:04:12.580 I would take a fact check on this for sure.
00:04:15.240 But it seems to me that an American company could just blatantly break the law
00:04:20.400 and spy on a Chinese company or steal their IP without fairly large risk.
00:04:27.240 But it looks like a Chinese company can do anything they want to a foreign company in their country
00:04:33.460 or anywhere else as their government would support it,
00:04:36.600 so long as it's good for the competition of China.
00:04:39.680 It's good for China. 0.99
00:04:40.940 So I feel as though our system doesn't allow us to cheat when we're competing as much.
00:04:47.380 I'm sure there's some cheating going on everywhere.
00:04:49.180 So we might have more video game addiction, but I don't know if that's a plus or a minus.
00:04:56.600 We would have more drug addiction.
00:04:59.140 We're more susceptible to cheating.
00:05:02.160 These are some big things.
00:05:04.220 These are some big deals if you're trying to figure out which country is going to dominate in the future.
00:05:10.320 And then here's another one.
00:05:11.880 This is really big.
00:05:12.760 Susceptibility to propaganda.
00:05:16.660 Now, let's assume that both the United States and a... 0.52
00:05:20.840 We'll take China as our totalitarian example. 0.94
00:05:23.920 Both of them are hugely susceptible to propaganda.
00:05:28.360 And I would say completely, right?
00:05:31.820 I don't think there's more propaganda in China than there is in the United States.
00:05:36.520 I probably wouldn't have said that always.
00:05:39.460 But at the moment, I can say this with confidence.
00:05:42.840 I don't think we have any less propaganda.
00:05:46.600 It just comes from different sources.
00:05:49.020 In our case, it comes from the different teams.
00:05:51.800 They just do the propaganda themselves.
00:05:53.980 Whereas in China, the government does it all.
00:05:56.740 So we both have terrible propaganda, but there's a big difference.
00:06:01.960 In China, the propaganda is controlled by the government,
00:06:05.280 which means that they can control it in a way that's good for the nation.
00:06:09.460 Even if it's not good for the people.
00:06:12.260 Whereas in the United States, it's just a fight between two competing groups,
00:06:17.640 just destroying the country by tearing it apart.
00:06:21.280 So it seems to me that although both China and the United States
00:06:24.580 would be fully propagandized,
00:06:27.460 China could do it in a more controlled, engineered way 0.94
00:06:30.580 to get a specific outcome.
00:06:32.480 In the United States, it's a free-for-all.
00:06:35.620 We don't know who's going to win the propaganda war.
00:06:38.120 We don't know who's going to be more persuasive on any given topic.
00:06:42.040 I think that's a disadvantage.
00:06:44.200 It would be an advantage if we had a good news industry.
00:06:50.380 In that case, we would have accurate news.
00:06:53.000 Chinese citizens would have inaccurate news.
00:06:55.880 And maybe that would give us some advantage.
00:06:57.840 But since we're both getting inaccurate news,
00:07:00.180 and we can't tell the difference,
00:07:01.400 then I would say the one who can engineer that inaccurate news the best,
00:07:06.520 which would be China,
00:07:08.440 might have an advantage.
00:07:10.300 So what would be the advantage of our system?
00:07:13.660 Only one that I know of.
00:07:16.080 Only one advantage that I know of.
00:07:18.080 Now, I'm not talking about lifestyle,
00:07:20.080 because there might be a number of lifestyle advantages of freedom.
00:07:23.240 But in terms of the strength of the total country,
00:07:27.520 I think our biggest advantage is creativity and risk-taking,
00:07:32.860 meaning that we allow it.
00:07:34.820 We allow people to do crazy things and just destroy themselves.
00:07:39.040 But every now and then, somebody is the Wright brothers,
00:07:41.680 and they create a lighter-than-air...
00:07:45.200 Not lighter-than-air, but they create a flying machine.
00:07:47.580 So there's something about the permissiveness of our system
00:07:52.540 that allows creativity to come out.
00:07:55.480 And so far, that's been the difference.
00:07:58.500 The biggest difference is creativity.
00:08:00.980 Now, somebody says capitalism,
00:08:02.360 but I think they have a lot of that advantage in China as well at the moment.
00:08:08.960 Yeah, so I think invention and risk-taking are our only enduring advantages.
00:08:14.180 And we'll see if that's enough.
00:08:18.240 Here's some prediction tracking.
00:08:20.140 Now, I've mentioned this before, but I'd like to keep reminding you.
00:08:24.020 One of the ways that you can predict
00:08:25.980 is by assuming that people act the same all the time.
00:08:31.080 Okay?
00:08:31.840 You can't trust people to tell you the truth.
00:08:34.960 In fact, I would say you shouldn't trust anybody.
00:08:37.560 Or you shouldn't trust anything that anybody says, just automatically.
00:08:42.500 Here's what you can trust.
00:08:44.420 Are you ready?
00:08:44.740 This is like a really, really important reframing.
00:08:50.140 So every now and then, I'll make a little statement
00:08:52.540 that could change, you know, change your life entirely.
00:08:56.760 This is one of them.
00:08:57.860 So just pay attention to this.
00:08:59.080 Some of you, this will be life-changing.
00:09:00.860 It really will.
00:09:02.900 You can't trust what anybody says.
00:09:06.920 Let's start with that.
00:09:08.320 Now, I know you're going to say to yourself,
00:09:09.400 well, I can trust some people.
00:09:11.640 No.
00:09:13.260 Wait for the reframe.
00:09:15.140 You can't trust anything that anybody says is true.
00:09:20.500 Just start with that to protect yourself.
00:09:23.580 Now, you have to make decisions, right?
00:09:25.600 You still have to live in the real world.
00:09:27.560 You still have to decide what to do.
00:09:29.840 And so part of that decision-making is figuring out who's telling you the truth and not.
00:09:34.520 Here's what I would say.
00:09:35.800 Instead of trusting what people say, which you should never trust,
00:09:40.340 trust that people will be the same as they always have.
00:09:44.520 Trust that the person who's giving you the information is the same person they were yesterday.
00:09:50.620 That you can usually trust.
00:09:54.080 It's not 100%.
00:09:55.160 Nothing is, right?
00:09:57.100 But trust that people will be the same as the last time that you dealt with them.
00:10:03.180 So it's sort of the Maya Angelou thing.
00:10:05.440 You know, when somebody shows you who they are, believe them the first time.
00:10:09.440 Because it's coming back, right?
00:10:11.160 You're going to see them act in the same way again.
00:10:13.940 So if you don't believe it the first time, you're going to be surprised.
00:10:17.040 All right, so here's how this works.
00:10:23.440 If you're going to look at the Arizona audit situation,
00:10:29.280 and you're trying to predict where it's going to go,
00:10:32.080 can you say that anything that anybody's said about it so far, you should trust?
00:10:38.960 No.
00:10:40.260 So if there are people who said the audit has found nothing, should you trust them?
00:10:45.380 No.
00:10:45.760 How about the people who told you, oh, there's definitely something there.
00:10:49.920 Oh, wait.
00:10:51.080 Wait till you see what we got.
00:10:52.540 Should you trust them?
00:10:54.640 No.
00:10:55.720 No.
00:10:56.840 So the two things you shouldn't trust at all
00:10:59.080 is people saying they definitely have some stuff,
00:11:02.660 and they'll show it to you later,
00:11:04.320 and people who say they definitely don't have any stuff,
00:11:06.840 because there's nothing there.
00:11:08.040 Don't trust them.
00:11:09.660 Now, use the reframe,
00:11:11.220 and trust that people will act like people.
00:11:14.600 Okay?
00:11:15.800 So that's your reframe.
00:11:17.600 People will act the way people have acted before.
00:11:21.220 If you have a big, complicated audit,
00:11:23.960 and it's full of people,
00:11:25.680 and people are blabbers, 0.55
00:11:27.560 are people who have always been blabbers
00:11:29.640 going to stop being blabbers suddenly?
00:11:33.040 No.
00:11:33.820 No.
00:11:34.000 You can trust that human beings will have an X number of blabbers, 1.00
00:11:39.000 people who will talk about things they're not supposed to talk about,
00:11:41.940 in any large group, every time.
00:11:45.160 You don't have to wonder if this large group of auditors
00:11:48.680 had any blabbers in it.
00:11:50.420 Of course it did.
00:11:51.860 100% chance there were blabbers. 1.00
00:11:56.380 Where are the blabbers telling us that they've already found the stuff,
00:11:59.680 and my God, you won't believe it,
00:12:01.480 and here's the area in which this fraud has been found.
00:12:06.220 No blabbers. 0.97
00:12:08.280 No blabbers. 0.97
00:12:08.960 So my prediction is that because people are always the same,
00:12:14.700 if the Arizona had found stuff,
00:12:18.860 there would be plenty of people who knew about it,
00:12:21.380 and some of those people, not all of them,
00:12:24.040 some of them would be blabbers.
00:12:26.800 You would know by now.
00:12:29.120 So I'm going to take this as a prediction technique.
00:12:33.440 It doesn't mean it predicted right this time, right?
00:12:36.360 Because everything is about the odds.
00:12:37.760 But the odds are that something with this many people involved,
00:12:43.300 people are the same everywhere all the time.
00:12:45.840 They're the same as they were.
00:12:47.620 They're not the same as each other.
00:12:48.880 They're the same as they used to be.
00:12:50.440 And they used to be blabbers.
00:12:52.060 Nothing changed that.
00:12:53.540 If you haven't heard anything,
00:12:54.820 what are the odds that there's something there?
00:12:57.400 Every day that goes by and you don't hear about it with some specifics,
00:13:01.860 the odds of anything being there go way, way, way down.
00:13:05.200 Now, it doesn't mean I'm right.
00:13:06.220 But it is a prediction technique.
00:13:08.900 Just track it and see if I'm right.
00:13:10.960 There's a new propaganda documentary,
00:13:14.960 whose name I may or may not have written down.
00:13:18.780 Something like Fox News and the Big Lie.
00:13:22.060 I think that's what it's called.
00:13:23.000 And the idea is it's a documentary showing that Fox News,
00:13:28.740 according to the theme of the documentary,
00:13:31.440 was culpable in spreading what they call the big lie about the election.
00:13:38.460 Now, I haven't seen the documentary yet,
00:13:40.600 but it's getting a lot of attention on social media.
00:13:43.020 But there was one part that I thought was quite interesting.
00:13:49.400 Did you know this?
00:13:51.160 That you remember as Sidney Powell was talking about Smartmatic,
00:13:54.980 one of the vendors that do voting machine technology.
00:14:00.260 I don't know if...
00:14:00.760 I can't remember if they're software or hardware.
00:14:02.860 Smartmatic?
00:14:03.500 Are they software or hardware?
00:14:04.860 Doesn't matter to my point.
00:14:06.000 But did you know that when you were listening to all those allegations
00:14:12.600 that Smartmatic had some issues,
00:14:15.260 according to this article on CNN,
00:14:19.720 it says that in 2020,
00:14:25.280 Smartmatic only had a...
00:14:27.600 It was only one contract for doing anything in the United States.
00:14:32.900 So in the year 2020, it was only one county.
00:14:36.400 It was a big one.
00:14:37.080 It was L.A. County,
00:14:38.160 but it probably didn't matter to the overall outcome.
00:14:41.460 That only...
00:14:41.860 Smartmatic was only operating in one county in the whole country.
00:14:47.340 And the allegation is that Fox News left that out.
00:14:50.920 Because your idea of how big the potential problem was
00:14:54.740 is very different if the vendor is only operating in one county.
00:14:58.880 So...
00:15:02.380 But here's the thing.
00:15:03.920 When I read this,
00:15:05.780 the way it was written was as if they were trying to mislead me.
00:15:09.420 This was on CNN.
00:15:10.740 It was written...
00:15:12.880 So here's the actual sentence.
00:15:15.940 The company accused of orchestrating a nationwide election fraud
00:15:19.960 had a single contract in the 2020 election
00:15:24.300 to provide a new voting system in L.A. County.
00:15:27.500 That's a...
00:15:29.520 That's an ambiguous sentence, isn't it?
00:15:32.140 Let me read it again.
00:15:34.380 See how you interpret this one sentence.
00:15:37.280 The company...
00:15:38.000 So this is talking about Smartmatic, the company.
00:15:40.580 The company accused of orchestrating a nationwide election fraud
00:15:43.820 had a single contract in the 2020 election
00:15:47.280 to provide a new voting system in L.A. County.
00:15:50.140 So one way to read this
00:15:52.680 is that Smartmatic had a trivial amount of involvement in the election.
00:16:00.080 I feel like that's what they want me to get out of this sentence.
00:16:03.200 But if you break it apart, it seems overly specific.
00:16:07.720 Do you know how to identify a liar?
00:16:10.860 They have an overly specific denial.
00:16:13.640 Did you kill Bob on Tuesday?
00:16:18.040 No, I didn't kill Bob on Tuesday.
00:16:22.040 See what I mean?
00:16:23.340 If your denial is too specific,
00:16:25.720 it's usually an indication of lying.
00:16:28.420 And the way this was written
00:16:29.760 is that they had one contract in 2020
00:16:33.000 to provide a new voting system in L.A. County.
00:16:37.220 What's left down of that sentence?
00:16:38.820 Did they have any existing contracts?
00:16:43.620 They had only one new voting system contract.
00:16:50.100 The word new is there.
00:16:51.920 They had one new voting system contract in one county.
00:16:57.040 Is this telling us that they had lots of other existing contracts?
00:17:00.740 They're just not new?
00:17:02.020 I don't know.
00:17:03.720 I can't tell.
00:17:05.500 But I don't know who's doing the propaganda here.
00:17:07.820 Did Fox News leave that out,
00:17:11.500 which would be a propaganda-like mistake,
00:17:15.060 no matter what their intent was?
00:17:16.620 Or is CNN shading the story
00:17:20.280 in a way that's just completely misleading?
00:17:23.100 Now, Dominion is another story.
00:17:25.480 Now, let me emphasize that, to my knowledge,
00:17:30.260 there is no evidence of either Smartmatic or Dominion
00:17:33.960 doing anything illegal or inappropriate.
00:17:36.040 I want to say that clearly
00:17:38.140 so I don't get banned from social media.
00:17:40.400 To my knowledge,
00:17:42.300 there is no credible evidence
00:17:43.860 that's been presented that I've ever seen
00:17:46.480 that looks like either of them did anything bad.
00:17:49.880 Now, keep in mind my larger philosophy
00:17:53.380 is that any kind of automated system
00:17:56.280 can be corrupted
00:17:58.780 and that given the number of intel agencies
00:18:02.360 that would love to do it,
00:18:04.160 it will happen.
00:18:05.200 We just don't know if it's happened yet.
00:18:07.540 So corruption of automated systems for voting
00:18:10.940 is largely guaranteed.
00:18:13.320 You just don't know when it's going to happen.
00:18:15.280 So that's the part I don't know.
00:18:16.360 While the Afghanistan war is over,
00:18:20.440 or is it,
00:18:21.980 it feels creepy and disgusting
00:18:25.420 to say that this war is over.
00:18:28.640 Is everybody with me on this?
00:18:30.840 To say that the Afghanistan war is over
00:18:33.360 is creepy and disgusting
00:18:35.640 because it's not over for some people who are trapped there.
00:18:38.940 It's not over for our allies that we stranded.
00:18:41.700 It's not over for the service dogs
00:18:43.580 we left at the airport, allegedly.
00:18:45.660 I don't know if that's true.
00:18:48.060 So I wouldn't call it over,
00:18:50.440 but at least the last soldiers have left, allegedly.
00:18:53.560 Who knows if that's even true.
00:18:56.720 Now, Laura Logan is reporting that,
00:18:59.760 or tweeting that from senior U.S. sources
00:19:02.040 that the house-to-house executions
00:19:04.560 have already started.
00:19:07.580 And now we don't know who they're executing,
00:19:09.620 but we presume it was people
00:19:11.240 who supported the United States
00:19:13.120 or the Afghan government,
00:19:15.100 maybe other people,
00:19:16.600 maybe gays, 0.99
00:19:18.320 maybe at least one folk singer
00:19:20.420 was taken out and shot in the head
00:19:22.520 because he sings.
00:19:25.240 Let me say that again.
00:19:27.420 A folk singer was dragged out of his home
00:19:29.780 and shot in the head,
00:19:31.200 not because he was singing anti-government
00:19:34.120 or anti-Taliban stuff,
00:19:36.140 but because he sings.
00:19:37.960 So they dragged him out
00:19:40.240 and shot him in the head
00:19:41.140 because music,
00:19:43.580 outside of a religious context,
00:19:45.280 is forbidden by the Taliban,
00:19:47.620 although the Taliban has been doing their act,
00:19:51.460 I'll call it,
00:19:52.160 of acting more progressive.
00:19:54.100 And they said,
00:19:54.540 well, we're not going to make a big deal
00:19:56.140 about the music,
00:19:58.160 but it is anti-Islamic,
00:20:00.360 they say.
00:20:00.780 So the thinking,
00:20:03.920 at least the reporting,
00:20:04.920 is that maybe Kabul
00:20:06.000 doesn't have so much executions,
00:20:08.440 but the places where there's less media
00:20:10.380 and fewer eyeballs,
00:20:13.280 that they might be executing people like crazy.
00:20:17.000 So there's that.
00:20:18.400 Here's your latest CNN propaganda by anecdote.
00:20:27.460 I told you that there will be
00:20:28.520 exactly one anecdotal story, basically,
00:20:32.920 about somebody who didn't get the vaccination
00:20:35.500 and then died.
00:20:39.220 So it's going to be something about people
00:20:40.880 who made the wrong choice,
00:20:42.400 according to CNN,
00:20:43.780 and it killed them.
00:20:45.600 So there'll be one per day,
00:20:47.180 and here's the one per day.
00:20:49.040 Daniel Wilkinson,
00:20:50.000 a U.S. Army veteran,
00:20:51.120 died from a treatable illness
00:20:52.740 after being unable to find an ICU bed
00:20:55.480 in five different states.
00:20:57.660 His mother tells blah, blah.
00:21:00.000 So here's somebody who didn't have COVID.
00:21:03.020 He's a U.S. Army veteran,
00:21:04.400 which, of course,
00:21:05.760 means a little more to us today, right?
00:21:08.220 If you were going to do a story
00:21:09.560 about something bad
00:21:10.600 that happened to a U.S. Army veteran,
00:21:13.180 today would be the day to do that story,
00:21:15.900 because we're all feeling unusually close
00:21:19.780 to our military.
00:21:21.640 Is that a fair statement?
00:21:23.340 Wouldn't you say that as of today,
00:21:26.960 that you, as a citizen of the United States,
00:21:29.640 let's say,
00:21:30.940 don't you feel close to your military?
00:21:35.200 Do you feel that?
00:21:36.540 I feel close to them,
00:21:38.340 meaning, you know, connected,
00:21:40.240 like, you know,
00:21:40.960 we're sort of all in this together.
00:21:42.480 That wasn't always the case.
00:21:44.380 You know, it's a luxury in this country
00:21:46.160 that you can let the military go off
00:21:48.220 and fight their wars,
00:21:49.620 and you can think about other stuff.
00:21:51.760 I mean, that's a gigantic luxury.
00:21:53.300 But at the moment,
00:21:54.040 we do feel close to them.
00:21:55.760 And so when CNN does a story
00:21:57.660 about an Army veteran who died
00:21:59.860 because the evil people,
00:22:02.000 this would be their take, not mine,
00:22:04.080 because the evil people
00:22:05.300 who didn't get vaccinations
00:22:06.420 filled up all the ICUs,
00:22:08.580 and now an Army veteran
00:22:09.560 who we should be respecting
00:22:11.060 and showing our best,
00:22:15.080 died from it.
00:22:16.660 Died from it.
00:22:17.880 Now, this,
00:22:20.320 assuming the reporting is correct,
00:22:21.980 this would be a huge tragedy,
00:22:26.420 but it's worse than that, right?
00:22:28.960 Because of the Army veteran part.
00:22:31.220 Like, here's an Army veteran
00:22:32.160 who, like, gives his,
00:22:34.060 you know, risks his life,
00:22:35.200 and to a large extent
00:22:36.480 gave his, you know,
00:22:37.500 his living life,
00:22:39.160 to the country,
00:22:40.660 and what the country
00:22:41.460 gave back to him
00:22:42.300 was a big FU
00:22:43.180 and no ICU bed,
00:22:44.800 and I guess you're just going to die.
00:22:46.780 So it's a horrible
00:22:47.780 anecdotal persuasion story,
00:22:50.280 but it's pretty good
00:22:51.360 persuasion-wise.
00:22:53.420 So watch the technique.
00:22:55.000 Once you see it,
00:22:55.980 you can't unsee it.
00:22:57.400 And the technique is this.
00:22:59.240 One headline per day
00:23:00.900 on this topic
00:23:02.460 on CNN's site every day.
00:23:05.140 Every day
00:23:05.680 until everybody's vaccinated
00:23:07.660 or we all die from COVID.
00:23:09.800 Well, apparently,
00:23:10.760 when Biden was
00:23:11.960 at the military ceremony
00:23:14.020 for the returning
00:23:15.040 deceased veterans,
00:23:18.180 he did check his watch
00:23:20.640 about five times.
00:23:23.200 Now, if you go
00:23:24.160 to honor the dead,
00:23:25.660 especially military,
00:23:26.940 and their families
00:23:27.660 are there,
00:23:29.200 please have your aides
00:23:31.820 take your watch away.
00:23:33.080 because you do not
00:23:35.200 want to be seen
00:23:36.080 checking your watch
00:23:37.320 in this situation.
00:23:39.440 But Joe Biden was
00:23:40.400 five separate times.
00:23:43.840 Why does the president
00:23:45.060 need to check his watch?
00:23:47.120 Can somebody tell me
00:23:48.440 why he would need
00:23:50.880 to check his watch?
00:23:52.700 What exactly?
00:23:54.820 Somebody says meds.
00:23:57.100 I feel like that might be it.
00:23:58.880 I feel like it might
00:24:00.740 be his meds.
00:24:02.740 It could also be
00:24:03.940 a nervous tick, yes.
00:24:06.060 I was going to say
00:24:06.680 that if I don't have
00:24:07.940 anything to do,
00:24:09.240 I check the time a lot.
00:24:11.060 It doesn't really
00:24:11.960 mean anything.
00:24:12.680 It just means
00:24:13.140 that I didn't have
00:24:13.660 anything to do.
00:24:14.480 So I check the time a lot.
00:24:17.700 So I'm not sure
00:24:18.700 that this was, you know,
00:24:20.760 anything except
00:24:21.560 an old man 0.70
00:24:22.400 who wasn't thinking clearly
00:24:23.560 because he's
00:24:25.560 the president
00:24:25.960 of the United States.
00:24:26.680 I suppose that's
00:24:27.760 a pretty big deal.
00:24:30.840 But oh my God,
00:24:32.240 could he embarrass us anymore?
00:24:34.540 Now even CNN,
00:24:35.600 as you know,
00:24:36.020 has turned against him.
00:24:37.200 I haven't watched
00:24:38.020 enough MSNBC
00:24:39.040 to see if they've
00:24:39.740 turned against Biden yet.
00:24:41.380 But CNN has turned
00:24:42.460 against him.
00:24:43.840 And I would say that
00:24:44.820 as a compliment
00:24:46.660 to CNN.
00:24:49.140 Sorry.
00:24:51.240 Sorry.
00:24:52.360 I know nobody here
00:24:53.560 wants to hear me
00:24:54.180 compliment CNN.
00:24:55.000 but I didn't know
00:24:57.920 if they would be able
00:24:58.660 to turn against him
00:24:59.440 no matter what he did.
00:25:01.140 But boy, did they.
00:25:02.800 And I'm going to make,
00:25:04.080 I'm going to speculate here.
00:25:06.020 You know,
00:25:06.320 a big network like CNN,
00:25:08.020 there will be lots of voices
00:25:09.160 and people in charge
00:25:10.420 and the on-air talent
00:25:11.820 has a certain amount
00:25:12.680 of credibility
00:25:14.060 and weight,
00:25:15.320 et cetera.
00:25:16.020 But there is one,
00:25:17.200 there's one voice
00:25:19.080 on CNN
00:25:19.880 that I think
00:25:21.080 is stronger
00:25:21.700 than the others.
00:25:22.600 Who would you say
00:25:23.180 that is?
00:25:23.660 If I told you
00:25:25.360 there's one voice
00:25:26.480 on CNN
00:25:27.120 that's probably
00:25:27.800 stronger than the others,
00:25:29.840 I imagine,
00:25:30.900 all right,
00:25:31.160 so I'm just speculating here,
00:25:32.560 but I imagine
00:25:33.160 that when we're not watching,
00:25:35.280 there's somebody there
00:25:36.640 who's stronger
00:25:37.200 than the other players.
00:25:39.640 Yeah,
00:25:40.000 it's funny,
00:25:40.860 I'm watching over on Locals,
00:25:42.240 everybody's guessing
00:25:42.920 it's Jake Tapper.
00:25:44.160 That's who I think it is.
00:25:45.940 Yeah,
00:25:46.160 I think Jake Tapper,
00:25:47.580 just guessing,
00:25:48.740 I think he has
00:25:49.520 a larger,
00:25:50.580 let's say,
00:25:52.780 just a little bit
00:25:53.400 more weight there.
00:25:54.800 Partly because,
00:25:55.820 you know,
00:25:56.120 his show is popular
00:25:57.060 and he does a good job
00:25:58.060 and he knows
00:25:58.420 what he's talking about.
00:25:59.560 But,
00:26:00.020 as you know,
00:26:01.000 I've worked with Jake
00:26:02.300 in the past.
00:26:03.980 We did some fundraising
00:26:05.220 for veterans.
00:26:06.420 Now,
00:26:06.760 if you've watched
00:26:07.360 Jake Tapper,
00:26:08.060 you know that his,
00:26:08.800 his concern
00:26:10.380 and interest
00:26:11.180 for veterans
00:26:11.920 has been consistent
00:26:14.080 and 10 out of 10.
00:26:17.420 Right?
00:26:18.340 Say what you will
00:26:19.200 about the reporting
00:26:20.060 and about CNN,
00:26:20.920 you can say what you want.
00:26:22.020 But,
00:26:22.800 Jake Tapper's
00:26:24.000 consistent respect
00:26:25.600 for veterans
00:26:26.480 has been unquestionable.
00:26:29.800 Would you give me that?
00:26:31.740 Would you give me that?
00:26:33.680 That Jake Tapper's
00:26:34.700 respect
00:26:35.200 for veterans
00:26:37.120 has been
00:26:38.520 a 10 out of 10
00:26:39.500 consistent
00:26:40.760 over the years.
00:26:42.380 Yeah,
00:26:42.600 he's really good
00:26:43.120 on that topic
00:26:43.680 and I've worked
00:26:44.640 with him on that.
00:26:45.260 So,
00:26:49.600 I think maybe
00:26:51.200 he's their biggest influence
00:26:52.400 because I can't imagine
00:26:55.080 that given,
00:26:57.120 you know,
00:26:57.940 Jake Tapper's
00:26:59.000 affection
00:26:59.820 for the military,
00:27:00.800 et cetera,
00:27:01.500 that he could
00:27:02.340 be on CNN
00:27:04.240 and give,
00:27:04.940 give Biden
00:27:06.000 a pass.
00:27:07.180 I don't think
00:27:08.360 Jake Tapper
00:27:09.100 could ever
00:27:10.980 give Biden
00:27:11.860 a pass
00:27:12.540 for what he did
00:27:13.860 in Afghanistan.
00:27:14.460 And I think
00:27:15.340 that that
00:27:15.760 basically
00:27:16.640 forces
00:27:17.440 CNN's hand
00:27:18.420 because you
00:27:19.160 couldn't have
00:27:19.640 one of your
00:27:20.040 main people
00:27:21.240 saying Biden
00:27:21.920 is screwing
00:27:23.560 everything up
00:27:24.240 while the other
00:27:25.360 opinion people
00:27:26.340 were saying
00:27:26.780 the opposite.
00:27:27.760 Kind of,
00:27:29.140 you know,
00:27:29.400 they kind of
00:27:29.980 need to get
00:27:30.340 on the same page.
00:27:31.660 So,
00:27:31.900 I'm just speculating.
00:27:32.920 I think he's
00:27:33.400 probably the strongest
00:27:34.160 voice there
00:27:34.840 behind the scenes,
00:27:35.740 just a guess,
00:27:37.020 based on,
00:27:37.740 you know,
00:27:37.960 what I know
00:27:38.340 of him
00:27:38.680 and his capabilities.
00:27:39.720 And I'll bet
00:27:41.360 that once
00:27:41.960 he flipped
00:27:42.760 on Biden
00:27:43.640 that the rest
00:27:44.980 of them
00:27:45.360 kind of had
00:27:46.480 to follow suit.
00:27:47.620 Just a guess.
00:27:48.660 Pure speculation.
00:27:50.920 All right.
00:27:52.920 As you know,
00:27:55.000 the Afghanistan
00:27:55.820 withdrawal,
00:27:56.800 I've,
00:27:57.800 we've called
00:27:58.880 that the big
00:27:59.440 botch.
00:28:00.380 The big botch.
00:28:01.740 And even
00:28:05.440 Stephen Collinson
00:28:06.540 over at CNN
00:28:07.620 is writing
00:28:08.220 an opinion piece
00:28:08.980 saying that
00:28:10.220 Biden completely
00:28:11.460 screwed the pooch
00:28:12.880 on that.
00:28:13.780 So once you've
00:28:14.380 got the main
00:28:15.220 anti-Trumper
00:28:16.300 writing anti-Biden
00:28:17.860 opinion pieces,
00:28:18.880 which he did
00:28:19.340 today,
00:28:19.800 I think it's
00:28:20.440 not the first one.
00:28:21.640 I think he's
00:28:22.000 done a few.
00:28:23.760 That's pretty
00:28:24.420 serious.
00:28:25.840 CNN is done
00:28:26.880 with Biden.
00:28:29.580 What does
00:28:30.180 that mean?
00:28:31.740 I feel like
00:28:32.260 that's a big
00:28:32.800 deal.
00:28:33.700 Because not
00:28:34.380 only is CNN
00:28:35.080 done with
00:28:35.700 Biden,
00:28:37.080 I think they're
00:28:38.020 done with
00:28:38.400 Democrats.
00:28:39.860 Because who
00:28:40.600 else are they
00:28:41.080 promoting?
00:28:42.500 Not Kamala 0.80
00:28:43.200 Harris,
00:28:44.440 right?
00:28:45.000 You don't see
00:28:45.740 them praising
00:28:46.740 Nancy Pelosi,
00:28:48.460 even though I
00:28:49.740 think she's a 1.00
00:28:50.840 pretty credible
00:28:51.500 person for her
00:28:52.480 team.
00:28:54.540 I don't know.
00:28:55.800 I feel like
00:28:56.420 something's
00:28:56.880 happening here.
00:28:57.440 I think Biden
00:28:58.040 just destroyed
00:28:59.940 the narrative
00:29:01.540 that the
00:29:02.360 Democrats had
00:29:03.000 a better
00:29:03.400 plan.
00:29:04.640 It just
00:29:04.900 looks like
00:29:05.260 it's been
00:29:05.580 destroyed.
00:29:08.220 Did you see
00:29:08.900 the video of
00:29:09.760 a helicopter?
00:29:11.860 It looked like
00:29:12.240 a Black Hawk
00:29:12.780 helicopter,
00:29:13.780 say people who
00:29:14.480 know what
00:29:14.840 helicopters look
00:29:15.540 like.
00:29:16.440 And it was
00:29:17.740 in Kabul,
00:29:18.480 and it looks
00:29:18.880 like the
00:29:19.280 Taliban somehow 1.00
00:29:20.220 was flying a
00:29:20.980 helicopter and
00:29:22.420 hanging somebody
00:29:23.560 from the bottom
00:29:24.180 of the helicopter.
00:29:24.740 It looks like
00:29:26.140 they used a
00:29:26.620 helicopter to
00:29:27.840 dangle somebody
00:29:29.140 they hung from
00:29:30.660 a rope and
00:29:31.240 they're flying
00:29:31.700 it around.
00:29:32.080 Did you see
00:29:32.400 that?
00:29:34.060 I'm going to
00:29:34.760 call that
00:29:35.180 fake news.
00:29:37.500 I saw it on
00:29:38.840 social media and
00:29:39.660 it was reported
00:29:40.380 that it was a
00:29:44.740 hanging.
00:29:45.480 Now there are
00:29:45.920 two things I
00:29:46.580 doubt.
00:29:47.380 Number one,
00:29:50.240 number one,
00:29:53.140 I thought I
00:29:54.000 saw his hands
00:29:54.960 moving.
00:29:56.720 I wasn't sure.
00:29:57.460 but if his
00:29:58.240 hands were
00:29:58.660 moving,
00:29:59.160 obviously he
00:29:59.660 wasn't being
00:30:00.040 hung.
00:30:01.000 So that's my
00:30:01.460 first question.
00:30:02.180 Did I see his
00:30:02.700 hands moving?
00:30:03.420 Did anybody else
00:30:04.000 see, it looked
00:30:04.820 like his hands
00:30:05.320 were free?
00:30:06.440 Number two,
00:30:08.200 we don't know
00:30:08.860 who it was
00:30:09.500 or why.
00:30:12.140 Now, the
00:30:13.300 place your
00:30:13.800 brain goes to
00:30:14.720 is that it
00:30:15.480 was probably
00:30:15.900 some American
00:30:17.380 ally or a
00:30:20.720 folk singer or
00:30:21.540 something.
00:30:22.300 So your
00:30:22.680 mind immediately
00:30:24.440 goes to whatever
00:30:25.920 is the worst
00:30:26.580 case scenario.
00:30:27.460 of a revenge
00:30:28.500 killing, and it 0.56
00:30:29.080 might have
00:30:29.300 been.
00:30:29.760 It might have
00:30:30.220 been exactly
00:30:30.720 that, which
00:30:31.300 would be
00:30:31.500 horrible.
00:30:32.620 But it
00:30:33.880 could have
00:30:34.160 been just a
00:30:35.220 criminal.
00:30:36.380 It could have
00:30:36.800 been a member
00:30:37.240 of the Taliban
00:30:37.840 who did
00:30:38.300 something that
00:30:38.800 the Taliban
00:30:39.280 didn't like.
00:30:40.180 Remember, they
00:30:40.680 hang people for
00:30:41.400 all kinds of
00:30:41.880 reasons.
00:30:42.840 They kill
00:30:43.180 people for
00:30:43.600 all kinds of
00:30:44.200 reasons.
00:30:44.920 One of the
00:30:45.500 reasons that
00:30:45.960 they might want
00:30:46.420 to kill
00:30:46.680 somebody publicly
00:30:47.500 is to gain
00:30:49.460 further control
00:30:50.420 over a city
00:30:51.340 that's maybe
00:30:52.180 hard to
00:30:52.720 control.
00:30:53.560 Now, I'm
00:30:53.820 not saying
00:30:54.140 they should,
00:30:55.440 but the more
00:30:56.220 brutal you are,
00:30:57.020 probably the
00:30:57.440 more control
00:30:57.940 you get over
00:30:58.400 the population.
00:30:59.640 So it's
00:31:00.100 possible that
00:31:00.660 it could have
00:31:00.920 been just a
00:31:01.380 criminal.
00:31:03.180 It could have
00:31:03.780 been a Taliban 0.99
00:31:05.200 who was a
00:31:06.500 traitor.
00:31:07.000 It could have
00:31:07.220 been anything.
00:31:08.160 So here's the
00:31:08.740 thing.
00:31:09.540 It looked like
00:31:10.360 the worst
00:31:10.760 thing I've
00:31:11.160 ever seen.
00:31:12.400 And maybe it
00:31:12.980 was.
00:31:13.260 It could have
00:31:13.560 been exactly
00:31:14.260 what you think
00:31:14.840 it was.
00:31:15.560 A revenge
00:31:16.160 killing that
00:31:16.780 they did in
00:31:17.220 public from
00:31:17.720 one of our
00:31:18.120 helicopters.
00:31:19.400 Horrible.
00:31:19.800 But there's
00:31:22.360 a real good
00:31:22.760 chance it
00:31:23.120 wasn't that
00:31:23.600 at all.
00:31:24.520 I just
00:31:24.840 don't know
00:31:25.100 what it
00:31:25.300 was.
00:31:26.020 So I'm
00:31:26.320 going to
00:31:26.460 call fake
00:31:26.920 news on
00:31:27.360 that only
00:31:28.760 because there's
00:31:29.300 so much
00:31:29.620 fog of war
00:31:30.160 that we
00:31:30.860 don't even
00:31:31.180 know if a
00:31:31.560 person got
00:31:32.040 hung or who
00:31:33.600 it was or
00:31:34.060 why.
00:31:36.500 You want to
00:31:37.060 hear some
00:31:37.300 good news?
00:31:38.880 This is just
00:31:39.760 about the best
00:31:40.480 news I've ever
00:31:41.300 heard, but we
00:31:42.440 don't know if
00:31:42.900 it's going to
00:31:43.320 go to completion
00:31:44.020 yet.
00:31:44.300 So Representative
00:31:45.740 Maria Elvira
00:31:47.160 Salazar and
00:31:48.720 a dozen
00:31:49.320 Republican
00:31:49.780 lawmakers,
00:31:51.060 they're
00:31:51.500 launching this
00:31:52.320 plan that
00:31:54.480 would allow
00:31:55.040 some kind
00:31:55.620 of wireless
00:31:56.400 communications
00:31:57.520 for any
00:31:58.560 place that
00:31:59.440 didn't have
00:32:00.060 it.
00:32:00.800 Let's say
00:32:01.220 there was a
00:32:01.540 natural
00:32:01.820 disaster and
00:32:03.380 they needed
00:32:03.760 to put quick
00:32:04.680 communications
00:32:05.380 up.
00:32:05.740 So they
00:32:05.920 would have
00:32:06.140 some kind
00:32:06.520 of either
00:32:07.540 helium balloons
00:32:08.780 or satellites
00:32:09.660 or some
00:32:10.060 kind of,
00:32:10.780 I think it's
00:32:11.540 somewhat undefined
00:32:14.080 so far,
00:32:15.020 but they
00:32:15.380 would fund
00:32:16.420 the development
00:32:17.380 of some
00:32:17.920 kind of an
00:32:18.780 emergency
00:32:19.360 internet that
00:32:21.040 would be used
00:32:21.560 not only where
00:32:22.300 there's a
00:32:22.800 natural disaster,
00:32:23.780 which could
00:32:24.100 make a huge
00:32:24.520 deal, but
00:32:26.540 also if there's
00:32:27.140 a rogue
00:32:27.660 regime that
00:32:29.480 shuts down
00:32:30.260 the internet
00:32:30.680 access.
00:32:32.320 Now,
00:32:34.320 you're way
00:32:35.880 ahead of me.
00:32:37.460 Do I not
00:32:38.440 understand that
00:32:39.260 Elon Musk is
00:32:40.980 putting in
00:32:41.480 place and has
00:32:42.460 put in place a
00:32:43.160 lot of
00:32:44.060 satellites that
00:32:44.920 would give
00:32:45.300 everybody's
00:32:48.240 cell phone an
00:32:49.020 alternate network
00:32:49.840 that's there all
00:32:50.500 the time?
00:32:52.200 Am I wrong
00:32:53.220 that Elon Musk's
00:32:55.560 Starlink could 0.97
00:32:57.120 do this?
00:32:58.860 Now, I don't
00:32:59.260 know if he'd
00:32:59.620 want to, and I
00:33:00.780 don't know what
00:33:01.140 the capacity is
00:33:02.220 and all that,
00:33:02.960 and I also
00:33:03.440 don't know if
00:33:04.100 your phone would
00:33:04.980 necessarily just
00:33:06.020 automatically use
00:33:06.880 this network,
00:33:07.900 but are we
00:33:10.400 right at the
00:33:11.360 verge where
00:33:12.600 Elon Musk can
00:33:13.800 do what the
00:33:14.340 government can't
00:33:15.040 do, which is
00:33:16.260 provide emergency
00:33:17.440 internet to
00:33:18.980 any place on
00:33:20.200 earth by
00:33:21.960 pushing a
00:33:22.440 button?
00:33:22.640 Is he building
00:33:24.640 that?
00:33:25.900 And do you
00:33:26.180 know how
00:33:26.820 important that
00:33:27.320 would be?
00:33:28.460 Because, like I
00:33:29.740 said, for China
00:33:30.940 to have an
00:33:31.660 advantage over the
00:33:32.360 United States,
00:33:32.980 they need to
00:33:33.420 control the
00:33:33.880 propaganda and
00:33:35.020 the information.
00:33:36.260 What happens if
00:33:36.940 they can't do
00:33:37.380 that anymore?
00:33:37.780 What happens if
00:33:39.640 anybody can just
00:33:40.800 flip a switch and
00:33:43.200 the next thing you
00:33:43.780 know they're on
00:33:44.320 the Starlink
00:33:45.200 network?
00:33:46.040 I mean, I
00:33:46.360 don't know if
00:33:46.680 that's possible,
00:33:47.560 but I don't
00:33:49.520 know.
00:33:50.040 I've got a
00:33:50.680 feeling that just
00:33:52.820 the fact that
00:33:53.320 we're seriously
00:33:54.380 thinking about how
00:33:55.920 to give internet
00:33:56.520 to people who
00:33:57.120 have been cut
00:33:57.540 off of internet
00:33:58.220 seems like a
00:34:00.500 civilization-changing
00:34:01.720 idea.
00:34:03.380 So let me give a
00:34:04.320 shout-out again to
00:34:05.520 Representative Maria
00:34:06.980 Salazar, you
00:34:09.860 are doing good
00:34:10.760 work, and that
00:34:12.080 would put you in
00:34:12.720 the 1% of
00:34:13.640 Congress, because
00:34:14.980 Congress is
00:34:15.620 largely completely
00:34:16.540 worthless.
00:34:17.920 I'm not sure
00:34:18.700 the details of
00:34:20.480 the bill are
00:34:20.880 exactly what it
00:34:21.660 needs to be, but
00:34:22.320 you're doing the
00:34:23.560 right stuff.
00:34:24.760 So congratulations,
00:34:26.660 elected Representative
00:34:27.820 Salazar from
00:34:29.120 Florida.
00:34:29.840 It's always
00:34:30.220 Florida.
00:34:31.240 It's always
00:34:31.920 Florida or
00:34:32.400 Texas, isn't
00:34:33.020 it?
00:34:33.820 Doing exactly
00:34:34.820 the right stuff.
00:34:36.980 All right.
00:34:40.280 I'm going to
00:34:41.240 now mention
00:34:42.040 some vaccination
00:34:43.160 stuff without
00:34:44.080 trying to make
00:34:44.880 you feel like
00:34:45.440 I'm talking
00:34:45.860 you into it,
00:34:46.460 okay?
00:34:47.300 Can we agree
00:34:47.880 on that?
00:34:49.180 I don't know
00:34:50.000 exactly how to
00:34:51.360 talk about stuff
00:34:52.300 without making
00:34:53.000 you think that
00:34:53.820 I'm persuading
00:34:54.500 you, but I
00:34:54.940 don't want to
00:34:55.240 do that.
00:34:55.600 I just want to
00:34:55.960 mention some
00:34:56.420 interesting new
00:34:57.320 things.
00:34:58.520 Number one,
00:34:59.200 a new study
00:35:01.080 says the
00:35:01.580 Moderna
00:35:01.960 vaccination has
00:35:02.840 twice as many
00:35:03.680 antibodies as
00:35:04.380 Pfizer.
00:35:04.660 So remember,
00:35:06.520 you know how
00:35:06.940 you haven't
00:35:07.300 heard about
00:35:07.840 the Moderna
00:35:08.480 needing a
00:35:09.200 booster?
00:35:09.840 You sort of
00:35:10.320 assumed it
00:35:10.840 was coming,
00:35:12.140 but it's
00:35:12.840 conspicuously
00:35:13.660 absent from the
00:35:14.620 news, right?
00:35:15.820 Wouldn't you
00:35:16.240 think that would
00:35:16.680 be in the
00:35:17.000 news every
00:35:17.600 single day?
00:35:18.840 The Pfizer
00:35:19.560 requires a
00:35:20.360 booster, and
00:35:21.640 the other one
00:35:22.100 is the
00:35:22.480 Moderna.
00:35:24.120 And then
00:35:24.640 what?
00:35:25.060 Nothing?
00:35:25.960 The Moderna
00:35:26.820 doesn't need a
00:35:27.380 booster?
00:35:28.940 Nobody's
00:35:29.420 saying it.
00:35:30.740 Now, I'm
00:35:31.220 guessing that you
00:35:31.820 still will need
00:35:32.620 a booster, or
00:35:33.680 at least it
00:35:34.120 will be
00:35:34.320 recommended.
00:35:35.260 Why am I
00:35:35.900 saying that
00:35:36.420 even though
00:35:36.920 the Moderna
00:35:37.580 has twice as
00:35:39.020 many antibodies
00:35:39.720 as the
00:35:40.180 Pfizer shot,
00:35:40.980 why do I
00:35:41.580 predict that
00:35:42.920 the Moderna
00:35:43.420 will need a
00:35:43.980 booster too?
00:35:44.920 Is it because
00:35:45.680 of my great
00:35:46.560 scientific
00:35:47.020 understanding that
00:35:48.380 even the
00:35:48.840 Moderna could
00:35:49.420 wear off over
00:35:50.080 time?
00:35:51.760 No.
00:35:53.280 Follow the
00:35:53.920 money, right?
00:35:55.780 Even when the
00:35:56.800 money shouldn't
00:35:57.700 be predictive,
00:35:59.440 why is it that
00:36:00.440 it always is?
00:36:01.280 It shouldn't
00:36:03.080 be.
00:36:03.840 You'd think
00:36:04.280 that it would
00:36:04.600 be science
00:36:05.260 alone that
00:36:05.800 would determine
00:36:06.280 whether you
00:36:07.080 need a booster
00:36:07.640 for the
00:36:08.000 Moderna.
00:36:09.160 But as long
00:36:09.780 as the
00:36:10.200 economics say
00:36:11.340 you do need
00:36:11.960 one, is
00:36:12.960 there any
00:36:13.460 chance it
00:36:13.940 won't happen?
00:36:15.300 It feels
00:36:16.080 like it's
00:36:16.460 just guaranteed
00:36:17.240 by the fact
00:36:18.940 that they'd
00:36:20.060 make more
00:36:20.440 money and
00:36:21.700 they control
00:36:22.600 the data.
00:36:23.520 If you
00:36:24.060 control the
00:36:24.640 data and
00:36:26.260 you would
00:36:26.520 make billions
00:36:27.920 of dollars if
00:36:29.260 you show the
00:36:29.760 data one way
00:36:30.480 versus maybe
00:36:31.180 another way,
00:36:31.900 what's going
00:36:32.340 to happen?
00:36:33.680 I think the
00:36:34.240 data is going
00:36:34.820 to coincidentally
00:36:36.040 look the way
00:36:36.620 that makes you
00:36:37.020 billions of
00:36:37.440 dollars.
00:36:39.120 I know that's
00:36:40.080 super cynical
00:36:41.020 and the world
00:36:41.660 doesn't always
00:36:42.360 work that way,
00:36:43.320 and I'm not
00:36:43.760 saying it does.
00:36:45.060 I'm saying that
00:36:45.720 if you made
00:36:46.260 predictions as
00:36:48.260 if the world
00:36:49.440 always worked
00:36:50.080 that way,
00:36:50.900 you would be
00:36:51.560 astonished how
00:36:52.400 often you're
00:36:52.900 right and you
00:36:53.580 won't know
00:36:53.960 why.
00:36:54.940 It'll fool
00:36:55.760 you.
00:36:56.300 Like you'll
00:36:56.700 even be surprised.
00:36:57.620 Like, oh,
00:36:58.100 I'm surprised
00:36:59.000 that worked.
00:37:01.180 Joe Rogan
00:37:03.540 seems to be
00:37:05.680 pretty angry
00:37:06.320 that he sold
00:37:07.780 a bunch of
00:37:08.180 tickets to
00:37:08.660 Madison Square
00:37:09.320 Garden for
00:37:09.960 his upcoming
00:37:10.560 show in
00:37:11.740 October, but
00:37:12.580 from the time
00:37:13.580 that he
00:37:13.940 announced the
00:37:14.620 show, New
00:37:15.780 York City
00:37:16.240 required vaccinations
00:37:18.180 for anybody
00:37:18.720 going to public
00:37:19.400 events, and
00:37:20.400 so now Joe
00:37:22.240 Rogan has sold
00:37:23.060 a bunch of
00:37:23.460 tickets, and
00:37:24.120 people already
00:37:24.720 bought the
00:37:25.100 ticket, and
00:37:26.180 after they
00:37:26.940 bought the
00:37:27.320 ticket, they
00:37:28.520 find out they
00:37:29.120 can't go unless
00:37:29.760 they get a
00:37:30.160 vaccination.
00:37:32.040 So Joe
00:37:33.080 Rogan, to
00:37:33.520 his credit, is
00:37:34.340 saying they
00:37:34.760 can get their
00:37:35.260 money back,
00:37:35.940 because he's
00:37:36.320 not going to,
00:37:36.920 he doesn't
00:37:37.280 want to be
00:37:37.600 part of
00:37:37.960 forcing people
00:37:38.520 to get
00:37:38.800 vaccinations.
00:37:40.120 So you
00:37:41.280 can get your
00:37:41.900 money back
00:37:42.480 from a Joe
00:37:43.500 Rogan show,
00:37:44.900 and damn
00:37:45.480 it, Joe
00:37:45.820 Rogan, that
00:37:46.340 just makes me
00:37:46.880 want to go
00:37:47.260 to your
00:37:47.520 show.
00:37:48.520 Why do
00:37:49.000 you do
00:37:49.220 that?
00:37:50.220 It makes
00:37:50.540 me want to
00:37:51.000 fly across
00:37:51.660 the country
00:37:52.040 and just go
00:37:52.600 to the show
00:37:53.100 just because
00:37:54.360 you said
00:37:55.020 that you
00:37:56.260 won't put
00:37:56.660 up with
00:37:57.000 this forced
00:37:57.680 vaccination
00:37:58.220 stuff.
00:37:58.680 So he
00:38:00.000 continues to
00:38:00.720 make popular
00:38:02.900 and smart 0.77
00:38:03.580 decisions.
00:38:05.540 So that's a
00:38:06.680 little commercial
00:38:07.140 for Joe
00:38:07.620 Rogan, who
00:38:08.100 totally earned
00:38:09.640 it.
00:38:11.000 Here's some
00:38:11.700 more fake
00:38:12.420 news and how
00:38:13.120 to recognize
00:38:13.720 it.
00:38:14.780 So CNN is
00:38:15.620 reporting that
00:38:16.480 although this
00:38:17.200 Ida didn't 0.70
00:38:19.640 reach the
00:38:20.060 worst case
00:38:20.560 scenario, it
00:38:21.100 was pretty
00:38:21.400 bad.
00:38:22.140 A million
00:38:22.480 people without 0.96
00:38:23.020 power, a lot
00:38:23.680 of flooding,
00:38:24.460 two deaths
00:38:24.820 so far.
00:38:25.820 So it's
00:38:26.140 bad.
00:38:27.000 Could have
00:38:27.300 been a lot
00:38:27.600 worse.
00:38:28.940 But CNN
00:38:30.120 is reporting
00:38:30.580 that climate
00:38:31.040 change is
00:38:31.940 making storms
00:38:33.880 more frequent.
00:38:36.020 Hurricanes are
00:38:36.540 more frequent
00:38:37.220 because of
00:38:39.260 climate change.
00:38:41.000 All right?
00:38:41.380 Suppose that's
00:38:42.380 all I told
00:38:43.080 you.
00:38:44.200 CNN is
00:38:44.840 reporting that
00:38:46.520 climate change
00:38:47.540 makes the
00:38:48.100 storms more
00:38:48.940 frequent.
00:38:50.340 How do you
00:38:50.720 know it's
00:38:51.060 fake news?
00:38:51.920 Go.
00:38:52.960 Tell me how
00:38:53.520 you know
00:38:53.880 that's fake
00:38:54.460 news just
00:38:56.020 from that
00:38:56.500 one sentence.
00:38:58.360 CNN reports
00:38:59.400 and they
00:39:00.180 show studies
00:39:00.820 and let's
00:39:01.400 say they
00:39:01.860 refer to
00:39:02.500 science.
00:39:02.960 They're not
00:39:03.160 just making
00:39:03.640 it up,
00:39:04.060 right?
00:39:04.220 They're
00:39:04.360 referring to
00:39:04.840 science.
00:39:05.760 They say
00:39:06.120 that the
00:39:06.460 storms are
00:39:07.060 more frequent
00:39:08.780 and that
00:39:09.540 climate change
00:39:10.200 is being
00:39:10.720 used as
00:39:13.480 the
00:39:13.620 explanation.
00:39:16.660 No sources?
00:39:17.580 No, they do
00:39:17.920 have sources.
00:39:18.920 They have
00:39:19.260 sources.
00:39:20.580 So how do
00:39:21.360 you know
00:39:21.540 it's fake
00:39:21.840 news?
00:39:22.120 I'm going
00:39:24.300 to be real
00:39:24.700 disappointed
00:39:25.180 if you
00:39:25.560 don't get
00:39:25.900 this.
00:39:27.940 Come on.
00:39:29.040 I'm looking
00:39:29.360 at all your
00:39:29.800 comments in
00:39:30.420 here.
00:39:31.540 And maybe
00:39:32.260 I missed
00:39:32.740 it.
00:39:34.260 Somebody's
00:39:34.740 going to
00:39:34.960 say it.
00:39:36.800 Come on.
00:39:38.940 Okay, you're
00:39:39.720 close.
00:39:40.300 Complex
00:39:40.620 systems.
00:39:41.540 Single
00:39:41.840 variable.
00:39:42.440 Yeah, you're
00:39:42.900 close.
00:39:43.760 All right,
00:39:44.140 you're getting
00:39:44.420 close.
00:39:46.780 It's the dog
00:39:47.640 not barking.
00:39:49.420 It's what
00:39:50.080 they didn't
00:39:50.520 say.
00:39:52.120 All right?
00:39:52.640 So here's
00:39:53.140 what they
00:39:53.400 did say.
00:39:54.380 The storms
00:39:54.860 are more
00:39:55.260 frequent.
00:39:56.660 More frequent.
00:39:57.860 What's left
00:39:58.400 out?
00:39:59.640 Strength of
00:40:00.440 the storm.
00:40:01.720 Yes, the
00:40:02.740 strength of
00:40:03.520 the storm is
00:40:05.080 left out.
00:40:06.760 Why?
00:40:08.440 Do you
00:40:08.920 assume that
00:40:09.300 the strength
00:40:09.820 of the storm
00:40:10.280 is the
00:40:10.600 same?
00:40:13.000 Maybe not,
00:40:14.140 right?
00:40:14.640 There could
00:40:14.980 be more of
00:40:15.560 them, but
00:40:16.160 less.
00:40:17.140 How about
00:40:17.660 what period
00:40:19.580 of time
00:40:20.180 are you
00:40:21.440 measuring
00:40:21.960 the storms
00:40:22.980 being more
00:40:23.420 frequent?
00:40:24.060 Do you
00:40:24.260 know that?
00:40:25.060 Is it
00:40:25.480 hundreds of
00:40:26.980 years of
00:40:27.540 storm reporting?
00:40:29.520 No.
00:40:30.580 Because we've
00:40:31.100 only been
00:40:31.520 tracking
00:40:31.840 hurricanes in
00:40:32.860 a useful
00:40:34.180 way since
00:40:34.840 the 70s.
00:40:36.040 So when we
00:40:36.900 say there
00:40:37.260 are more
00:40:37.600 storms, we're
00:40:38.720 really talking
00:40:39.260 about this
00:40:39.760 tiny, tiny
00:40:40.800 little sliver
00:40:41.700 of history
00:40:42.440 between the
00:40:43.700 70s and
00:40:44.440 now.
00:40:45.380 In
00:40:45.700 geological
00:40:46.580 terms, it's
00:40:47.860 just a blink
00:40:49.400 of an eye.
00:40:49.840 So could
00:40:51.900 you say
00:40:52.500 that climate
00:40:53.600 change is
00:40:54.260 the cause
00:40:54.960 when you're
00:40:55.880 looking at
00:40:56.200 such a
00:40:56.960 sliver of
00:40:57.820 time?
00:40:58.360 It feels
00:40:58.660 like anything
00:40:59.140 could happen
00:40:59.640 in a sliver
00:41:00.260 just by
00:41:01.060 chance, right?
00:41:02.560 So that's
00:41:03.240 one thing.
00:41:04.420 And then
00:41:04.720 here's the
00:41:05.140 other thing
00:41:05.500 that's being
00:41:05.860 left out.
00:41:07.280 Come on,
00:41:07.680 tell me
00:41:07.960 another
00:41:08.480 gigantic
00:41:09.520 thing,
00:41:10.820 gigantic,
00:41:11.700 for understanding
00:41:12.480 the topic,
00:41:13.460 that's left
00:41:14.000 out of the
00:41:14.620 statement that
00:41:15.320 the storms
00:41:15.780 are more
00:41:16.140 frequent.
00:41:16.540 What is
00:41:18.280 being left
00:41:18.700 out besides
00:41:19.300 the severity
00:41:20.040 of the storm
00:41:20.520 and the
00:41:21.040 strength?
00:41:21.780 Something else
00:41:22.440 is being left
00:41:23.000 out.
00:41:23.640 Thank you.
00:41:24.620 Death count.
00:41:25.600 Exactly.
00:41:26.720 Our ability
00:41:27.320 to mitigate
00:41:28.160 against danger
00:41:29.780 is really,
00:41:31.260 really good
00:41:31.560 now compared
00:41:32.500 to what it
00:41:32.860 used to be.
00:41:33.660 The number
00:41:34.180 of people
00:41:34.560 who are
00:41:35.020 killed by
00:41:35.760 hurricanes
00:41:36.320 in the
00:41:37.520 modern times,
00:41:39.480 it's still
00:41:40.980 tragic,
00:41:42.180 but you're
00:41:42.600 talking about
00:41:43.180 a handful.
00:41:44.780 You're
00:41:45.160 talking about
00:41:45.520 a handful
00:41:46.240 of people
00:41:47.740 dying from
00:41:48.380 a hurricane
00:41:48.840 in modern
00:41:50.340 times,
00:41:51.000 whereas a
00:41:51.760 hurricane
00:41:52.040 could have
00:41:52.360 wiped down
00:41:52.920 a city
00:41:53.500 100 years
00:41:54.940 ago.
00:41:55.700 If you're
00:41:56.360 looking at
00:41:56.780 what is
00:41:57.200 the problem,
00:41:58.680 the problem
00:41:59.380 isn't exactly
00:42:00.460 that there
00:42:01.060 are more
00:42:01.400 frequent
00:42:01.800 storms.
00:42:04.160 You have
00:42:04.700 to put in
00:42:05.580 all the
00:42:05.880 other variables
00:42:06.660 or else
00:42:07.060 it's obviously
00:42:07.540 fake news.
00:42:08.500 I'm going
00:42:08.740 to call it
00:42:09.040 fake news
00:42:09.640 because they
00:42:10.120 leave out
00:42:10.500 the obvious
00:42:11.040 things you
00:42:11.480 put in it.
00:42:12.220 Then in
00:42:12.540 that same
00:42:12.920 story that
00:42:13.480 they link
00:42:13.860 to as
00:42:14.360 their source
00:42:14.920 for their
00:42:15.480 claim,
00:42:16.240 they show
00:42:17.020 an animation
00:42:17.660 of what
00:42:18.140 Charleston,
00:42:18.880 the city
00:42:19.280 of Charleston,
00:42:19.800 would look
00:42:20.280 like under
00:42:21.240 a number
00:42:21.620 of scenarios
00:42:22.320 of rising
00:42:23.000 sea level.
00:42:24.780 The rising
00:42:25.560 sea level
00:42:26.140 that they
00:42:26.580 estimate for
00:42:27.300 Charleston,
00:42:27.740 and these
00:42:28.980 are not
00:42:29.880 predictions,
00:42:30.820 these are just
00:42:31.300 what ifs,
00:42:31.840 what ifs,
00:42:32.800 so they show
00:42:33.760 you a graphic
00:42:34.300 of what if
00:42:35.040 the sea level
00:42:36.520 around Charleston
00:42:37.280 went up one
00:42:37.960 foot.
00:42:39.980 Then it shows
00:42:40.520 that areas
00:42:41.200 would be flooded.
00:42:42.340 It says,
00:42:42.640 what if it
00:42:43.040 goes up two
00:42:43.560 feet?
00:42:44.460 Two feet
00:42:45.200 of sea
00:42:46.280 level rise.
00:42:48.240 Charleston's
00:42:48.720 got much
00:42:49.340 more problems.
00:42:50.300 But what if
00:42:50.720 it's four
00:42:51.540 feet?
00:42:53.160 Four feet
00:42:54.040 of rise,
00:42:57.140 Charleston's
00:42:57.760 largely
00:42:58.160 underwater.
00:42:59.620 Now,
00:43:00.020 what's missing
00:43:00.580 from that
00:43:01.000 analysis?
00:43:03.100 What are the
00:43:03.640 odds that the
00:43:04.160 sea level is
00:43:04.620 going to go
00:43:04.980 up a foot?
00:43:07.060 Is anybody
00:43:07.860 predicting the
00:43:08.620 sea level will
00:43:09.240 go up a foot?
00:43:10.100 I thought
00:43:11.720 that predictions
00:43:12.300 were more
00:43:12.740 like inches.
00:43:14.300 Like two
00:43:14.780 inches is
00:43:15.280 going to be
00:43:15.560 a problem,
00:43:16.320 and if it's
00:43:17.140 four inches,
00:43:17.820 it's a big
00:43:18.200 problem.
00:43:18.880 But who's
00:43:19.620 talking about
00:43:20.100 four feet
00:43:20.720 of sea
00:43:21.080 level rise?
00:43:22.500 I mean,
00:43:22.740 that just
00:43:23.000 seems like
00:43:23.400 complete
00:43:23.920 propaganda
00:43:25.260 bullshit to
00:43:25.980 me.
00:43:26.720 I don't even
00:43:27.200 know if
00:43:27.440 anybody's
00:43:27.840 talking about
00:43:28.320 that.
00:43:29.460 I hope
00:43:29.800 not.
00:43:31.840 All right.
00:43:34.080 Is long
00:43:34.980 COVID real
00:43:35.840 or not?
00:43:37.980 Believe it
00:43:38.600 or not,
00:43:39.040 that's a
00:43:39.480 question.
00:43:40.100 Now, I
00:43:41.120 think everybody
00:43:42.080 agrees it's
00:43:42.680 real.
00:43:43.640 We don't
00:43:43.980 know if
00:43:44.400 it's
00:43:44.720 smallish or
00:43:45.660 biggish.
00:43:46.120 That's the
00:43:46.460 bigger problem.
00:43:47.680 So,
00:43:48.020 Professor
00:43:48.380 Francois
00:43:49.320 Ballou
00:43:49.860 tweeted
00:43:50.940 this,
00:43:51.500 that there's
00:43:52.280 a preprint
00:43:53.240 study.
00:43:54.740 Do you
00:43:55.480 know what
00:43:55.680 to think
00:43:55.960 about preprint
00:43:56.720 studies,
00:43:57.820 everybody?
00:43:58.660 If I say
00:43:59.340 there's a
00:43:59.880 preprint
00:44:00.340 study,
00:44:01.460 how much
00:44:02.120 credibility
00:44:02.980 do you
00:44:03.660 give a
00:44:04.120 preprint
00:44:04.980 study?
00:44:06.860 Low,
00:44:07.860 right?
00:44:08.240 So the
00:44:08.600 correct answer
00:44:09.140 is low.
00:44:10.100 So this
00:44:11.740 is a low
00:44:12.700 credibility.
00:44:14.040 It doesn't
00:44:14.280 mean it's
00:44:14.580 wrong.
00:44:15.860 Low credibility
00:44:16.680 just means you
00:44:17.360 can't necessarily
00:44:18.360 know if it's
00:44:19.520 true.
00:44:20.960 And it says
00:44:21.940 that when they
00:44:22.940 measured,
00:44:23.660 they studied a
00:44:24.600 bunch of people
00:44:25.000 in the UK
00:44:25.420 and found out
00:44:27.000 that almost
00:44:27.620 nobody,
00:44:28.480 like a tiny,
00:44:29.320 tiny percentage,
00:44:30.860 might have
00:44:31.360 something that you
00:44:31.980 could call
00:44:32.340 long COVID.
00:44:32.940 long COVID.
00:44:33.580 Now remember,
00:44:34.320 the estimates
00:44:34.780 have been as
00:44:35.360 high as 25%.
00:44:36.700 Now if long
00:44:38.580 COVID is
00:44:39.060 affecting 25%,
00:44:40.400 that's a big
00:44:41.900 part of your
00:44:42.400 decision-making
00:44:42.980 process.
00:44:44.140 But if it's
00:44:44.920 way less than
00:44:45.980 1%,
00:44:46.760 maybe not so
00:44:48.540 much.
00:44:49.800 So it's a big
00:44:50.580 deal whether
00:44:51.600 long COVID is
00:44:52.520 25% of the
00:44:54.980 public or
00:44:55.520 way less than
00:44:56.760 1%.
00:44:56.940 But there's
00:45:02.240 also sketchiness
00:45:04.060 in the coding
00:45:05.100 and the data
00:45:06.200 collection.
00:45:07.180 So apparently
00:45:07.560 everybody,
00:45:08.680 not everybody,
00:45:09.360 but doctors
00:45:10.380 code different
00:45:11.520 things differently
00:45:12.160 so they don't
00:45:12.880 necessarily code
00:45:13.700 it as long
00:45:14.300 COVID because
00:45:15.340 they might not
00:45:15.820 know it's long
00:45:16.440 COVID.
00:45:16.920 They might just
00:45:17.360 think it's a
00:45:17.860 second problem.
00:45:19.240 A lot of
00:45:19.760 people probably
00:45:20.240 don't bother
00:45:20.680 going to the
00:45:21.300 doctor.
00:45:21.840 They just feel
00:45:22.300 shitty for months.
00:45:23.200 They don't know
00:45:23.600 why.
00:45:24.440 They just figure
00:45:24.980 it's something
00:45:25.380 else.
00:45:25.740 So we doubt
00:45:27.200 that the data
00:45:27.860 on long COVID
00:45:28.640 is even close
00:45:29.520 to accurate.
00:45:30.900 But to be
00:45:32.520 fair, I've
00:45:33.600 told you that
00:45:34.200 the numbers
00:45:34.900 show it could
00:45:35.520 be as high
00:45:35.920 as 25%.
00:45:36.980 And now I've
00:45:38.020 told you that
00:45:38.520 it could be
00:45:38.860 as low as
00:45:39.580 less than
00:45:40.620 1%.
00:45:41.140 So I'm just
00:45:42.840 trying to give
00:45:43.360 you the range
00:45:44.640 of what it
00:45:45.960 might be.
00:45:47.140 And if that
00:45:47.880 changes your
00:45:49.160 calculation about
00:45:50.940 decision making,
00:45:52.600 maybe you
00:45:53.740 should.
00:45:54.660 Maybe you
00:45:55.060 should.
00:45:55.280 And I
00:45:55.740 would say
00:45:56.060 that it's
00:45:56.400 starting to
00:45:56.980 affect mine
00:45:57.700 because the
00:45:59.200 longer we
00:45:59.680 go without
00:46:00.260 really solid
00:46:01.540 evidence of
00:46:04.060 long COVID
00:46:04.700 being a big
00:46:06.220 problem, the
00:46:07.720 longer we go
00:46:08.320 without that,
00:46:09.020 the less I
00:46:10.460 think it might
00:46:10.880 be.
00:46:11.940 Right?
00:46:12.280 It's sort of
00:46:12.960 the same
00:46:13.480 strategy.
00:46:15.780 On day one,
00:46:16.620 you say,
00:46:16.940 well, maybe,
00:46:17.560 maybe not.
00:46:18.080 But the
00:46:18.360 longer you
00:46:18.820 wait without
00:46:19.560 confirmation,
00:46:20.700 the less likely
00:46:21.800 you'll get
00:46:22.160 confirmation.
00:46:22.560 confirmation.
00:46:24.340 All right.
00:46:25.640 So I don't
00:46:26.120 know about
00:46:26.440 that.
00:46:30.920 You know,
00:46:32.720 the United
00:46:33.380 States is
00:46:33.880 being coy
00:46:34.460 about what
00:46:35.100 we're going
00:46:35.420 to do to
00:46:36.000 rescue the
00:46:36.660 rest of the
00:46:37.160 Americans and
00:46:38.140 our allies
00:46:38.900 that are
00:46:39.200 trapped in
00:46:39.700 Afghanistan.
00:46:40.900 But do you
00:46:42.420 fault them for
00:46:43.880 not telling you
00:46:44.640 what we're going
00:46:45.200 to do about
00:46:45.680 it or being
00:46:46.580 vague about
00:46:47.260 it or general?
00:46:47.980 Do you fault
00:46:49.260 the administration
00:46:50.000 for not being
00:46:50.800 specific about
00:46:52.440 how we plan to
00:46:53.360 get more
00:46:53.980 Americans out 1.00
00:46:54.800 of there?
00:46:55.980 I don't.
00:46:57.580 Because I think
00:46:58.220 that would be
00:46:58.720 the wrong thing
00:46:59.740 to be specific.
00:47:01.260 Because probably
00:47:02.200 we're going to
00:47:02.620 have to do
00:47:02.980 some things that
00:47:03.780 even the Taliban
00:47:04.700 has to be
00:47:05.380 flexible about,
00:47:06.360 maybe.
00:47:07.020 We might have
00:47:07.760 some secret
00:47:08.940 threats with
00:47:09.680 the Taliban.
00:47:10.300 We might even
00:47:10.700 have a secret
00:47:11.180 deal.
00:47:12.240 It's possible
00:47:12.880 we have a
00:47:13.340 secret deal
00:47:13.880 with the Taliban
00:47:14.440 where we'll
00:47:15.720 release their
00:47:16.700 funding if all
00:47:17.580 the Americans
00:47:18.040 get out
00:47:18.540 or something
00:47:18.960 like that.
00:47:20.100 So I would
00:47:21.520 support the
00:47:22.240 administration's
00:47:23.520 not being
00:47:24.860 straight with
00:47:25.660 us on this
00:47:27.000 topic.
00:47:28.020 I do think
00:47:28.860 that for
00:47:29.680 national security
00:47:31.320 sometimes your
00:47:33.880 military leaders
00:47:34.820 have to lie
00:47:35.440 to the public.
00:47:36.860 Would everybody
00:47:37.360 agree that
00:47:37.980 that's an
00:47:38.500 acceptable lie?
00:47:39.580 If the
00:47:40.900 military genuinely
00:47:42.040 believes that
00:47:42.740 they can protect
00:47:43.400 the country
00:47:43.840 better with a
00:47:45.500 temporary lie,
00:47:46.420 do you
00:47:48.040 favor it?
00:47:49.700 I do.
00:47:50.960 But I could
00:47:51.820 respect an
00:47:52.500 argument that
00:47:53.000 says you
00:47:53.300 don't.
00:47:55.320 Yeah.
00:47:56.400 So Tony
00:47:57.620 Blinken and
00:47:58.780 Biden, I'm
00:47:59.980 not going to
00:48:00.480 give them a
00:48:01.380 hard time for
00:48:02.080 acting as though
00:48:02.860 we don't have
00:48:03.360 a plan or
00:48:04.280 speaking only
00:48:05.440 generically about
00:48:06.260 it like it's
00:48:06.740 some kind of
00:48:07.160 weak plan.
00:48:07.960 Because I
00:48:08.360 imagine a
00:48:08.900 real plan would
00:48:09.800 look like this.
00:48:11.680 Tell the
00:48:12.160 Americans to
00:48:12.920 get to this
00:48:13.520 specific place
00:48:14.860 where the
00:48:15.560 Taliban doesn't 1.00
00:48:16.300 have any
00:48:16.720 surveillance or
00:48:18.340 air coverage.
00:48:19.400 And we'll
00:48:19.880 drop some
00:48:20.520 helicopters in
00:48:21.280 there and
00:48:21.520 we'll take
00:48:21.880 you home.
00:48:23.420 So it
00:48:24.140 seems to me
00:48:24.740 like they
00:48:25.080 would have
00:48:25.340 to keep
00:48:25.720 secret from
00:48:26.420 the Taliban
00:48:26.920 and the
00:48:27.400 rest of
00:48:27.700 the world
00:48:28.140 some of
00:48:29.080 their plans
00:48:29.600 because some
00:48:30.500 of it is
00:48:30.880 going to be
00:48:31.280 stuff the
00:48:31.840 Taliban doesn't 1.00
00:48:32.520 know we're
00:48:32.800 doing, right?
00:48:33.720 And other
00:48:34.360 stuff might be
00:48:34.980 stuff the
00:48:35.380 Taliban is 0.99
00:48:35.920 working with
00:48:36.580 us.
00:48:37.520 And we
00:48:37.820 can't exactly
00:48:38.720 say that,
00:48:40.080 right?
00:48:40.300 Because we
00:48:40.620 might be
00:48:40.960 bribing them,
00:48:41.780 there might be
00:48:42.180 blackmail,
00:48:43.340 could be any
00:48:43.940 damn thing.
00:48:45.720 So it's
00:48:47.500 concerning that
00:48:48.520 we do not
00:48:49.040 have a stated
00:48:49.840 plan for
00:48:50.380 getting everybody
00:48:50.920 out, but I
00:48:51.500 don't know
00:48:51.980 that you'd
00:48:52.400 want it the
00:48:52.820 other way.
00:48:54.800 All right.
00:48:58.040 And that
00:48:58.800 is what I
00:49:00.920 needed to say
00:49:01.440 for today.
00:49:01.900 And I have
00:49:02.360 to go.
00:49:03.180 And it's
00:49:03.560 been terrific
00:49:04.060 seeing you.
00:49:04.580 And