Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1489 Scott Adams： Lots of Coffee-Sipping-Worthy Headlines Today

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody.

00:00:04.040 It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams, and I don't have to tell you, it's the best thing

00:00:09.560 in the history of the universe.

00:00:12.020 Not every time, but today for sure.

00:00:15.500 Absolutely.

00:00:16.820 And if you'd like to take it up to heretofore unknown levels of pleasure, and I know you

00:00:23.080 do, all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or chelsea, a canteen jug or a flask,

00:00:28.780 a vessel of any kind, fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:32.680 Yeah, I like coffee.

00:00:34.260 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:38.300 It's the dopamine here of the day.

00:00:39.620 It's the thing that makes everything better, as long as you do it with me.

00:00:43.800 It's called the Simultaneous Sip.

00:00:45.080 It happens now.

00:00:45.760 Go.

00:00:50.240 Oh, delicious.

00:00:54.480 Now, some of you are wondering, Scott, why is it that you are streaming on YouTube?

00:00:58.780 YouTube, and also the Locals platform, but you are not streaming on the Rumble platform.

00:01:06.880 Why is that, Scott?

00:01:07.980 Why is that?

00:01:09.720 Well, let me describe the Rumble onboarding process.

00:01:14.500 It goes like this.

00:01:15.480 If you'd like to be a creator, click this button, and somebody will help you become a creator

00:01:21.580 account.

00:01:22.500 And then you click that button, and the next part is easy.

00:01:26.360 You just wait.

00:01:28.960 But there's no part after that.

00:01:31.220 Apparently, you asked to be a creator on Rumble, and then there's a thing called nothing that

00:01:37.300 happens after that.

00:01:38.160 So then nothing happens.

00:01:40.500 I've tried that a couple of times.

00:01:42.120 I've also been contacted by Rumble employees, and they've offered help.

00:01:49.120 So I've emailed back and said, that's great.

00:01:51.480 Just make me a creator account, and I'll be live streaming like crazy.

00:01:56.640 And then the process that happens after that is nothing.

00:01:59.280 So I've tried three or four times to live stream on Rumble, and each time, I can't.

00:02:09.340 I don't know.

00:02:10.100 Apparently, I'm the only person who's not allowed to live stream on Rumble.

00:02:13.800 But should I ever be allowed, I might try to do that.

00:02:18.280 We'll try to get that solved.

00:02:21.260 Here's a tragic story of a diner, small business, a diner in central Florida, who announced that

00:02:29.060 it would not be serving anyone who supports President Biden.

00:02:32.860 And I guess this is over the botched and disgraceful Afghan pullout. 1.00

00:02:39.000 And well, you can imagine what would happen.

00:02:40.900 If you say that you will not serve more than half of the public in your town, and you depend 0.99

00:02:47.400 on the public for your income, it's pretty obvious that if you're a small business and

00:02:52.280 barely struggling to get by as it is, it's pretty obvious that if you tell half of your

00:02:57.000 potential customers that they can't eat there, you're pretty much going to have to, you're

00:03:02.260 going to be forced to shutter your business.

00:03:04.520 And that's what happened.

00:03:05.640 She was forced to shutter her business because she said that she wouldn't even sell to half 0.92

00:03:10.920 of the people in the community.

00:03:12.380 Wait, I'm getting an update.

00:03:14.160 I'm getting an update.

00:03:14.940 She was forced to shutter her business, but it was because there were so many customers,

00:03:23.720 they ate all the food, and she didn't have any food left to serve.

00:03:28.720 Okay, so that's exactly the opposite of what I thought it would be.

00:03:32.280 It turns out that when you tell half of your customers to fuck off, you really, it's good

00:03:38.120 marketing.

00:03:41.980 Earlier?

00:03:42.420 Yeah, if I'd known that, I think I would have tried it.

00:03:45.660 Moving on to the next story, a tragic story.

00:03:48.660 Not all my stories are happy.

00:03:51.260 This one is tragic.

00:03:54.060 There was a woman, a high school biology teacher, age 34, who was accused of having sex with a

00:04:00.380 14-year-old student.

00:04:04.720 This is terrible.

00:04:05.660 Apparently, this biology teacher had sex with this 14-year-old boy during at least three

00:04:15.700 one-on-one independent study sessions.

00:04:19.800 Now, I think we have to dig a little deeper into the story.

00:04:23.660 Now, of course, it's tragic, and I feel sorry for this poor 14-year-old boy who was a victim

00:04:30.780 of this horrible crime, sex with a hot teacher.

00:04:35.280 I hope he'll recover.

00:04:37.620 I hope this isn't a permanent problem for the rest of his life.

00:04:42.100 But the victim, they talked to the victim, the 14-year-old boy who had sex with his teacher

00:04:47.420 three times, and he was quoted as saying it was, quote, the best three days of his life

00:04:52.900 so far.

00:04:56.560 He doesn't think you'll need therapy, but he said he'd agreed to get therapy under the following

00:05:02.760 condition, quote, if the therapist is super hot.

00:05:06.480 So I guess that's sort of a yes.

00:05:11.880 So the child will be treated, probably with therapy.

00:05:16.440 But I have this question to ask.

00:05:19.020 This was a biology teacher.

00:05:22.340 Now, I'm just going to put this out there because I don't know if the news is good at context.

00:05:27.880 Because you have to consider everything, right?

00:05:30.240 We've talked about the tragedy to the 14-year-old boy, and I don't know if he'll ever be the same.

00:05:35.480 I hope he recovers from this.

00:05:37.680 But we should also say that when that 14-year-old boy took his biology exams, it turns out he

00:05:46.360 knew more about biology than all of the other kids in the class.

00:05:50.760 Yeah, he did.

00:05:51.720 Because he had three independent study sessions on biology that you just can't get everywhere,

00:05:58.600 if you know what I mean.

00:05:59.400 You know what I mean?

00:06:00.160 You know what I mean?

00:06:01.080 Yeah.

00:06:02.880 So that's enough of that tragedy.

00:06:04.400 I have a prediction.

00:06:07.120 Prediction.

00:06:07.960 Most of you are savvy and well-informed people.

00:06:12.520 And I know that you know that Elon Musk recently had been critical of Bitcoin because it requires

00:06:21.280 gigantic amounts of energy to mine a new coin.

00:06:26.080 Now, if you don't know cryptocurrency, let me explain that in order to create a new Bitcoin,

00:06:34.440 it's created by massive computers crunching things algorithmically.

00:06:40.540 I'm not sure if that's the right word.

00:06:42.480 But by formula, and only once in a while can it discover, or mine, as they say, a new combination

00:06:52.600 that will be a new Bitcoin.

00:06:54.140 So without getting too technical, to create a Bitcoin, you need a computer.

00:06:59.260 And there were very few Bitcoins in production.

00:07:02.320 You could use just your own little computer and it could maybe find a Bitcoin for you.

00:07:07.220 But as the number of Bitcoins continue to get mined, they are harder and harder to find.

00:07:13.700 Mathematically, they're harder to find.

00:07:15.040 So you need bigger and bigger computers to find the increasingly rare Bitcoins that are left.

00:07:22.520 And so it takes entire data centers now to just find some Bitcoins.

00:07:27.940 And it's a pretty big drag on climate change, say the experts.

00:07:32.740 I mean, it could be like half of 1% of all the energy used.

00:07:35.480 It's a pretty big number.

00:07:36.320 So here's my prediction.

00:07:40.040 Someday a billionaire will build a Gen 4 nuclear power plant just to mine Bitcoins.

00:07:47.180 Now, this said billionaire would have to find a country that was willing to allow a more experimental nuclear power plant.

00:07:56.600 But because you're using it to bit to mine Bitcoin, you can put it anywhere, right?

00:08:03.720 Your nuclear power plant doesn't need to be near a population center.

00:08:11.300 In fact, that would be the worst place to put it.

00:08:13.540 The best place to put it, if you're only going to use it for your own Bitcoin mining operation,

00:08:19.380 the best place to put it would be as far from humans as possible.

00:08:22.560 So if something went wrong, no problem.

00:08:27.240 Now, the Generation 4 nuclear plants are built such that nothing big can go wrong.

00:08:33.680 If everything fails, here's the idiot's definition of Generation 3 versus Generation 4.

00:08:42.260 Generation 3, which would be the kind of power plant you would build today, you know, kind of a traditional one,

00:08:48.580 if you have a major problem, it could lead to some kind of a meltdown situation that would be bad.

00:08:55.700 But Generation 4 would be designed such that the problem itself would cause the power plant to shut down.

00:09:03.880 So instead of a design where a problem causes a massive potential problem,

00:09:11.680 Generation 4, the same problem, or let's say conceptually the same kind of problem, would cause it just to turn off.

00:09:18.040 So that's a pretty big difference, right?

00:09:21.360 Major, you know, Chernobyl meltdown versus, oh, it's off now.

00:09:26.960 That's it.

00:09:27.560 So yeah, I suspect that Bitcoin could become a huge driver of Generation 4 nuclear power.

00:09:37.080 So Bitcoin could actually become the financial incentive to have a robust Generation 4 nuclear industry.

00:09:45.220 Maybe.

00:09:46.220 Who knows?

00:09:46.840 I'll put that out there.

00:09:49.060 There's nothing funny about death.

00:09:51.580 Let me start this story by saying, when people die, there's nothing funny about that.

00:09:59.300 And if you laugh at a story in which people die, well, you're a bad person,

00:10:04.820 and you're going to have to deal with that for the rest of your life.

00:10:08.560 Live in shame.

00:10:09.320 Live in shame if you laugh at this following story, which is tragic.

00:10:15.220 Turns out that the Taliban tried to celebrate a victory against some rebels in the Panjshir Valley.

00:10:24.440 Turns out it was a premature celebration.

00:10:29.500 It turns out that they did not have a victory yet.

00:10:32.120 It was premature.

00:10:32.820 But they decided to celebrate anyway, as the Taliban do, by firing their weapons in the air. 0.90

00:10:40.160 So many Taliban fired their weapons in the air, falsely believing that they'd won a war against the rebels.

00:10:51.460 And when the Taliban fired all their weapons in the air, they didn't count on gravity. 0.53

00:10:58.660 Gravity kind of snuck them and bit them in the ass.

00:11:00.880 And a lot of those bullets fell down after they went up, resulting in the death of 17 people and injuring 41.

00:11:13.800 Now, if you're laughing about that, you're a bad, bad person.

00:11:18.700 Oh, bad people.

00:11:20.900 Bad people.

00:11:21.700 I see you in the comments.

00:11:22.900 Don't be laughing at death, even if it's the Taliban. 0.95

00:11:29.380 Well, first of all, we don't know if it was the Taliban who were the 17 people killed.

00:11:33.160 Could have been anybody.

00:11:35.060 Probably innocent people, the way things go.

00:11:38.060 But not funny.

00:11:40.340 However, it does open up a possibility.

00:11:43.360 Is it possible that Joe Biden was this close, for those of you listening, I'm putting my finger and my thumb in a very short distance from each other.

00:11:56.200 Is it possible that Joe Biden was this close from a major victory against the Taliban?

00:12:04.100 Maybe.

00:12:05.380 And here's how that could have looked.

00:12:06.900 The Taliban, you think, won an unexpected 11-day victory and took over Afghanistan with almost no resistance.

00:12:17.120 That's what the news told you.

00:12:19.280 Or was it a trap?

00:12:22.560 Because if the Taliban took over really quickly, and they still had a lot of ammo left over because they didn't need to use it because they took over so quickly, 0.68

00:12:31.060 what would the Taliban do with all of that ammo left over to celebrate their victory over Afghanistan, which they've tried 20 years to take back?

00:12:41.240 What would they do?

00:12:43.000 Would they shoot their weapons in the air?

00:12:46.740 And would they have so much ammo, because they didn't have any resistance in the actual war,

00:12:53.060 that those bullets would come down and wipe out the Taliban?

00:12:57.960 Okay, it's a long shot.

00:12:59.260 It's literally a long shot.

00:13:02.440 Up in the air, and that goes back down.

00:13:05.720 So, I think Biden was this close.

00:13:10.280 Again, if you're listening to this, Adams is putting his finger and his thumb within a close distance to each other.

00:13:18.000 Almost.

00:13:19.620 Could have worked.

00:13:21.400 Now, you say to yourself, Scott, that was a bad plan.

00:13:25.420 Really?

00:13:25.760 You're going to coax them into shooting in the air and hoping that enough bullets fall down to wipe out the Taliban without hitting any innocent people? 0.91

00:13:33.220 Well, that's a terrible plan.

00:13:35.000 Is it?

00:13:35.960 Is it a terrible plan?

00:13:38.480 Compare it to what we actually did.

00:13:41.340 Yeah.

00:13:42.320 Now it doesn't look so bad, does it?

00:13:44.480 Yeah.

00:13:44.740 If you compare it to the right alternative, which is what we did, cut and run, looks pretty smart.

00:13:53.220 So, could have worked.

00:13:55.500 Worth a shot.

00:13:56.640 Worth a shot.

00:13:57.620 Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.

00:13:59.260 It was worth a shot.

00:14:00.440 Well, it turns out that artificial intelligence is super racist.

00:14:08.160 Do not laugh at this joke, because you would be labeling yourself as a racist.

00:14:14.160 Just like AI, you don't want to be that.

00:14:18.180 Don't be a racist and don't laugh at this joke.

00:14:20.620 There's nothing funny about it.

00:14:22.060 But Facebook recently apologized after an AI program, Facebook AI, mistakenly labeled a video featuring black men interacting with the police as, quote, about primates.

00:14:37.400 Don't laugh.

00:14:39.040 Don't laugh, you bastards.

00:14:41.740 Stop it.

00:14:43.580 Stop it.

00:14:45.680 All right.

00:14:46.040 Now, apparently an automatic prompt came up and it says, do you want to keep seeing videos about primates?

00:14:54.240 Despite the video clearly featuring no primates whatsoever.

00:15:00.760 But here's my question.

00:15:03.020 Hmm.

00:15:04.160 Wait a minute.

00:15:04.920 Wait a minute.

00:15:05.860 Are we analyzing this story correctly?

00:15:09.060 Because the story says there were, quote, black men in the videos.

00:15:13.120 Do you see where I'm going here?

00:15:20.720 Do we have confirmation that the AI was confused by the, quote, black men in the video?

00:15:30.360 Or was it confused by the police officers who wore uniforms that were the same color all over?

00:15:38.560 Uh, yeah.

00:15:40.800 Now you don't know what to think.

00:15:42.260 Like, that's a Norm Macdonald line.

00:15:44.020 One of my favorite lines.

00:15:45.380 Hey, don't know what to think.

00:15:47.880 Because police officers were the ones the AI thought were the primates.

00:15:52.780 Because they were literally uniform in color.

00:15:57.100 Because they might have had, you know, full uniforms that were all this.

00:16:00.440 I mean, if you were to look at, let's say, a gorilla, what would be the distinguishing characteristics of a gorilla?

00:16:07.780 Same color all over.

00:16:09.540 Right?

00:16:09.940 So the gorilla is the same color all over.

00:16:13.320 Just like a police uniform.

00:16:16.440 I don't know if the AI was looking at faces and making a racist kind of conclusion.

00:16:23.260 Probably.

00:16:24.260 I mean, it's a reasonable assumption.

00:16:26.180 But why do we go to that automatically?

00:16:29.560 Why do you automatically think that the AI thought that the black men were the primates as opposed to the police officers?

00:16:37.680 Huh?

00:16:38.220 Huh?

00:16:39.320 Maybe the article itself is racist.

00:16:42.140 Because you can't tell which ones the AI was looking at.

00:16:47.240 Right?

00:16:48.040 Can't tell.

00:16:48.580 Well, so you would have to be a racist yourself.

00:16:51.880 Gotcha.

00:16:52.960 Gotcha.

00:16:53.860 You'd have to be a racist yourself to assume that the AI was looking at the black men in the video.

00:17:00.700 Because I don't think that was an evidence.

00:17:05.020 All we know is that the AI thought there were some primates in the video.

00:17:07.800 So why are you so racist that you think it was the black people in the video?

00:17:12.020 Well, I think you should be ashamed of yourself.

00:17:15.580 By the way, I don't think that any...

00:17:19.320 Nothing in the things look like other things and remind me of other things have any meaning.

00:17:24.600 Are you all adult enough to know that?

00:17:27.580 Right?

00:17:28.240 Like, even if you said to yourself, hey, I think some person's reminding me of a primate, it doesn't mean anything.

00:17:36.120 It just means that you were reminded of something.

00:17:39.420 Like, to give that any importance would be ridiculous.

00:17:44.340 Jonathan Turley tweets, and you should be following Jonathan Turley on Twitter, one of the best follows.

00:17:51.000 He says there's a program at Boulder University, I guess, that encourages faculty to, quote, shed the, quote, cultural norms of white supremacy.

00:18:03.000 So what are these cultural norms of white supremacy?

00:18:05.840 Well, among them, in your attempt to, quote, decolonize the classes, you should be rejecting neoliberal concepts.

00:18:14.920 So what are some neoliberal concepts we would like to reject?

00:18:17.960 Well, among them, perfectionism and a sense of urgency.

00:18:23.620 Now, when I was coming up in the business world, I was told literally and continuously that a sense of urgency was exactly what I wanted to develop if I didn't have it already.

00:18:36.780 That, in fact, success...

00:18:38.620 This was at the phone company.

00:18:39.740 They would use this language all the time.

00:18:41.140 The phone company would use the sense of urgency to tell you you should be working hard and act like everything's important.

00:18:49.280 But it turns out that that sense of urgency, the very qualities in perfectionism, the very kinds of qualities which might lead one to success,

00:18:59.440 you could argue about the perfectionism one,

00:19:02.180 are maybe a little bit too white supremacist.

00:19:07.000 A little bit too white supremacist.

00:19:08.280 So, this program will try to get rid of that.

00:19:13.700 But here's a question for you.

00:19:16.580 Hmm.

00:19:17.800 It raises an interesting question.

00:19:20.220 Let's say that we accept this premise.

00:19:24.520 Let's say we accept the premise that we should not be living in a white supremacist cultural norm.

00:19:33.660 Anybody have a problem with that?

00:19:35.260 I think we can reject white supremacy as a cultural norm.

00:19:41.400 I mean, if you could get rid of it, that would be fair.

00:19:45.140 Right?

00:19:45.520 You live in America, damn it.

00:19:47.300 Nobody should be having any supremacy.

00:19:49.460 That's the whole point of America.

00:19:51.300 So, of course, we'd like to get rid of any cultural norms of white supremacy, if they were real.

00:19:55.880 But here's the question.

00:20:00.700 If you could damn perfectionism and damn a sense of urgency as white supremacist, couldn't you damn success itself?

00:20:11.080 Isn't success, the way we define it in economic terms in the West, isn't that white supremacist?

00:20:23.080 And shouldn't we, and shouldn't the Boulder program, try to get rid of success entirely?

00:20:29.840 Because success is what fucks up everything.

00:20:34.520 If nobody succeeded, you wouldn't have to worry about income distribution.

00:20:39.360 Nobody would have any.

00:20:40.740 And if nobody succeeded really big...

00:20:45.980 Yeah.

00:20:47.740 I see a comic, Eric, calling that uniquely white.

00:20:50.980 It's pretty racist, isn't it?

00:20:53.140 Imagine you're a...

00:20:55.400 I'm just trying to get in the heads of other people, right?

00:20:57.660 It's impossible.

00:20:58.480 But just imagine, put yourself in this place.

00:21:00.660 You're a successful black entrepreneur.

00:21:04.100 Put yourself in that head.

00:21:05.720 You are a successful black entrepreneur.

00:21:08.600 You've made it.

00:21:09.520 You killed it.

00:21:11.180 You got stuff done.

00:21:12.020 You made some money.

00:21:13.240 You've really done well.

00:21:15.020 And then some asshole tells you that you should get rid of your sense of urgency and your perfectionism

00:21:20.560 and your other traits.

00:21:21.680 And what do you say to yourself?

00:21:24.920 I mean, I don't know, because that's not me.

00:21:28.480 But I feel like if you put me in that situation, I'd be pretty angry about this.

00:21:33.200 Because I'd think to myself, wait a minute.

00:21:35.540 I wasn't trying to be white.

00:21:37.560 I was trying to succeed.

00:21:41.300 And if trying to succeed made me look like I was trying too hard to be white,

00:21:46.380 who the hell is telling me that?

00:21:49.300 Right?

00:21:49.540 Imagine you're a black entrepreneur.

00:21:52.660 Wouldn't you be pretty offended by that?

00:21:55.180 It's like, oh, the only way you can succeed is by acting white? 0.92

00:21:59.220 How about no?

00:22:00.620 How about I was able to succeed by doing the things that everybody who succeeds does?

00:22:05.640 Same stuff.

00:22:06.420 I mean, it doesn't matter what color you are.

00:22:09.460 You pretty much do the same basket of stuff to succeed.

00:22:14.080 So anyway.

00:22:18.320 Recently, several of Dan Ariely's, I hope I'm pronouncing his last name right.

00:22:25.260 So he's an author and researcher and a guy.

00:22:28.100 And he's been writing books about behavioral science.

00:22:31.300 But it turns out that a lot of behavioral science studies don't hold up.

00:22:36.180 And one of them was a study that said that if you ask people to declare that they're going

00:22:42.220 to be honest at the end of a form, they're more likely to lie and then at the end say,

00:22:48.560 yeah, sure, I'll be honest, than if you put their declaration at the front.

00:22:53.860 And the thinking was that if you make people say, yes, I'll be honest, before they answer

00:22:58.700 the questions, they'll be biased toward being more honest because they committed to it.

00:23:03.780 But it turns out you can't reproduce that.

00:23:06.260 Can't be reproduced.

00:23:07.880 So that would be just another example of behavioral science that just, it's bullshit.

00:23:14.760 Just can't be reproduced.

00:23:16.520 Now, I also have my questions about why that wouldn't work.

00:23:21.140 Because everything I know about persuasion and brains and hypnosis suggests that it would

00:23:28.220 work, that putting it first would make a difference.

00:23:31.240 So I'm not sure which one to doubt.

00:23:34.040 Should I doubt the studies that couldn't reproduce it?

00:23:38.080 Or should I doubt, I don't know, I guess I doubt everything.

00:23:42.880 So behavioral science comes pretty close to guessing, it turns out.

00:23:51.140 So here's a mystery that I think I've got, I'm going to try to explain this as best I can.

00:23:58.160 I like to think that one of my superpowers is explaining complicated things in simple ways.

00:24:05.120 So that's my challenge to myself.

00:24:07.920 Here's a complicated thing, and I'll see if I can explain it to you for the first time in a simple way.

00:24:12.180 I'm not sure I can.

00:24:12.940 But I got some help from Andres Backhaus on Twitter and some other tweets.

00:24:20.620 But here's the conundrum.

00:24:23.540 So Israel is reporting that most of their new infections are of vaccinated people.

00:24:31.700 So that makes some people say, wait a minute, if most of the people getting a new infection

00:24:36.720 are vaccinated, doesn't that tell you the vaccinations don't work?

00:24:40.940 And the answer is no, it's not telling you that at all.

00:24:43.720 Apparently Israel is very happy with how well the vaccinations work.

00:24:48.520 But it's also true, simultaneously, that infections among the vaccinated apparently are higher than the unvaccinated.

00:24:57.760 So does that tell you that the vaccinations are making it worse?

00:25:03.020 No.

00:25:04.020 And here's why.

00:25:05.260 Children are still mostly not vaccinated and still mostly don't get it.

00:25:10.940 Right?

00:25:11.920 So children are mostly not vaccinated and also mostly don't get it for whatever reason.

00:25:20.240 Whereas older people, or at least they're not getting hospitalized.

00:25:25.720 Whereas older people, whether they're vaccinated or not, if they're old enough and you get it, 1.00

00:25:33.000 well, there's a good chance you get hospitalized anyway.

00:25:34.800 So you've got this situation where you're looking at very different groups with different risk profiles.

00:25:41.560 So any imbalance in the size of those groups just changes your whole average and makes your average ridiculous.

00:25:48.060 So if on average, the people who are vaccinated are more likely to be infected, am I saying that wrong?

00:25:56.000 Well, let's say it a different way.

00:25:58.020 If on average, most of the infections are with vaccinated people, that has everything to do with the size of the population of vaccinated people

00:26:06.620 with the size of the population of the kids who are unvaccinated.

00:26:10.660 So as long as you know that the average doesn't mean anything, because you're averaging two things that are just like an apple and an orange,

00:26:16.500 maybe that helps.

00:26:19.500 I think I did a terrible job.

00:26:21.460 Usually I'm better than this.

00:26:23.480 Is there anybody who knows what I should have said to know if I'm even close?

00:26:28.920 But the basic idea is that there's nothing wrong with the Israeli vaccinations,

00:26:35.860 that they're actually super effective for keeping you out of the hospital and keeping you alive.

00:26:41.760 But it might not look that way, and it's just because of how numbers work.

00:26:46.500 Apparently, Trump said recently that he wouldn't get a booster.

00:26:50.940 Now, it was reported that when Trump said he was thinking about not getting a booster,

00:26:55.320 that it probably wasn't.

00:26:56.540 He said, I'm not against it, but it probably isn't for me.

00:27:00.200 And I saw CNN say, oh, you know, that's not so good,

00:27:06.040 because then all the Trump people will say, hey, if he's not getting a booster, then why should I get one?

00:27:12.800 But what did they leave out of the story?

00:27:16.500 Yeah, I'll just let the comments, what did CNN leave out of the story?

00:27:22.400 That he already had COVID.

00:27:25.260 He already had it.

00:27:27.600 Come on.

00:27:29.500 Come on, guys.

00:27:31.660 News industry.

00:27:33.700 Seriously.

00:27:34.720 You're not going to put that in the story?

00:27:36.300 The most important fact that he had already had COVID, and that gives him a kind of immunity,

00:27:42.260 which science says is way better than a booster.

00:27:46.260 Is Trump making the wrong decision?

00:27:53.000 I don't know.

00:27:55.360 But if I had had the, if I had it recovered, I know, if I'd recovered, and maybe I had the wherewithal to test my antibodies anyway,

00:28:06.260 I think I would think twice about a booster, wouldn't you?

00:28:09.060 So they're treating it as if Trump is being unscientific or giving bad advice,

00:28:16.100 when, as far as I can tell, he's completely compatible with the science and is giving good advice for himself.

00:28:25.400 He told you that he's not against it.

00:28:28.120 So he's not telling you what to do.

00:28:29.900 He's just saying for himself his special case.

00:28:32.840 I think he's probably right.

00:28:34.060 So that's some fake news there.

00:28:40.220 All right.

00:28:41.740 So I'm going to play you a little video.

00:28:44.760 So last night, this will just tell you how weird my life is.

00:28:50.000 So here's a little background.

00:28:51.660 Greg Goffeld got an interview with Trump.

00:28:55.920 So the interview has not aired yet.

00:28:58.100 I believe it will air this coming week, probably Wednesday-ish, tentatively.

00:29:02.840 And maybe it's spread over a few days.

00:29:05.820 We'll see.

00:29:06.840 But so Greg Goffeld was with Trump yesterday for the interview.

00:29:12.940 And I think they got something to eat after with a bunch of other people.

00:29:15.920 And then I get this video.

00:29:20.580 Scott, there's a man here that wants to say hello to you.

00:29:24.060 Hey, Scott.

00:29:24.700 I want to tell you, you're a man of great common sense.

00:29:27.480 And I really enjoy listening to you.

00:29:29.620 And you've been, generally speaking, a fan for a long time.

00:29:32.740 You agree with what I'm doing.

00:29:34.000 But keep up the good work.

00:29:35.520 I'm with Greg and some of his friends.

00:29:37.300 We did an interview.

00:29:38.400 And thank you for everything, Scott.

00:29:40.320 Keep up the good work.

00:29:41.440 Awesome.

00:29:42.160 Thank you.

00:29:47.060 I told you my life is weird, right?

00:29:50.540 I swear to God, I wake up and I don't know what's going to happen any freaking day.

00:29:54.940 So, yeah, that was Trump giving me a little personal video message.

00:30:02.080 How weird is that?

00:30:03.860 So, anyway, I guess one of the advantages of having the number one evening show, which Greg

00:30:12.240 Goffeld has, is that you get a lot of good interviews.

00:30:16.140 So, I would encourage you all to watch that interview.

00:30:19.500 Can you, just imagine.

00:30:21.580 Just think about it.

00:30:22.960 So, you know Greg Goffeld and you know Trump.

00:30:25.920 Is there any chance that this isn't a good interview?

00:30:29.060 You know it's going to be fun.

00:30:30.940 So, I can't wait to see that.

00:30:33.580 All right.

00:30:36.280 You know what I would love to see?

00:30:37.720 A risk management worksheet.

00:30:39.920 Maybe it could even be an Excel.

00:30:41.800 You know, something simple anybody could use.

00:30:43.500 It could be a website where there's just some programming to do it.

00:30:46.980 But I think there should always be some kind of government-blessed thing with the odds.

00:30:56.200 And that would change, of course, as we learn new things about what the odds are.

00:30:59.340 We change the odds.

00:31:00.540 But you should be able to just fill in your own situation.

00:31:04.400 You know, stuff like, you know, can you socially distance?

00:31:07.760 What's your age, your comorbidities?

00:31:11.620 And then put in stuff like, what is the known risk of getting vaccinated?

00:31:18.920 And then make some guesses about the long-term unknown risk.

00:31:24.020 And, you know, you'd have to put in your own assumptions so people would get different results

00:31:28.340 based on their own assumptions plus the official scientific assumptions.

00:31:33.200 And shouldn't we be doing that?

00:31:36.460 Why in the world do you and I have a dumbass conversation about whether or not it's a good idea for you to get vaccinated?

00:31:44.360 That's like the dumbest conversation that any two humans can have.

00:31:48.100 Because your situation and mine aren't even close.

00:31:51.260 And what are the odds that you're in the same situation I am risk-wise and everything else?

00:31:55.700 Zero.

00:31:56.000 So I should be making my decision, you should be making your decision, and that's it.

00:32:00.920 Right?

00:32:01.380 Your decision and my decision don't need to be compatible.

00:32:05.560 They shouldn't be.

00:32:06.680 There's no reason for them to be.

00:32:08.560 So why don't we just reduce it to math?

00:32:12.600 And just say, look, here's the worksheet.

00:32:16.060 Okay, grandma, you watched some pundit.

00:32:20.660 Now you don't want to get vaccinated.

00:32:22.380 So just do the worksheet.

00:32:23.880 And if the worksheet comes out and says, yeah, you know, in your situation, let's say you were already infected, like Trump.

00:32:31.000 If Trump did the worksheet, would it tell him to get a booster?

00:32:35.520 What do you think?

00:32:36.900 If Trump did a worksheet to figure out the odds, his best odds, of what would be the biggest risk and reward,

00:32:44.880 in his specific case, because he already had the infection, and he can probably monitor his antibody level,

00:32:54.360 I'd be surprised if they're not doing that once a month, right?

00:32:57.500 If you're an ex-president, you've got all the money in the world, yeah, you're probably looking at your antibodies every month or so.

00:33:04.860 So in his special case, different than other people, right?

00:33:10.860 All right, I'd just like to put that out there, because we're arguing about stuff that should just be math.

00:33:16.080 It should just be on a worksheet, you know, with your assumptions, of course.

00:33:20.080 Now, here's what I thought was a CNN typo or error, and I still believe it is.

00:33:25.840 So here's something that CNN says on its website, that I tell you in advance, I think they're saying the opposite of what is true, right?

00:33:34.820 So I'll tell you what they're saying, but I believe it's the opposite of truth.

00:33:38.800 And I think it's just a typo.

00:33:40.620 Of the 10 states with the worst COVID-19 case rate, now this is not deaths, and this is not hospitalization,

00:33:47.460 this is just the number of people infected.

00:33:48.980 Over the past week, seven of them, so seven out of 10, also had among the 10 best vaccination rates.

00:33:58.220 So this would suggest that the highest vaccinated states are also having the most infections.

00:34:06.400 Is that true, or is that opposite of true?

00:34:12.580 Well, Andres Bekos looked at the data, and he said it looks like it's the opposite of true.

00:34:18.980 That, in fact, the least vaccinated states are the ones with the most infections.

00:34:24.140 So I'm not sure what CNN was trying to say, but that's a pretty gigantic error if it's an error, which it looks like.

00:34:31.340 So it could be I'm reading it wrong, or maybe I'm interpreting it wrong or something.

00:34:35.520 But it's the opposite.

00:34:37.040 It looks the opposite of what I believe to be true.

00:34:40.140 So let's say that it's been fact-checked by Andres.

00:34:44.820 But again, I think either one of us could be wrong about what they thought they meant.

00:34:48.360 I don't know.

00:34:49.020 It could be just an interpretation problem.

00:34:51.200 But it looks wrong.

00:34:54.940 I'm also in the middle of this Matt Gaetz story.

00:34:58.820 Is anybody following that?

00:35:00.580 So you know that Matt Gaetz now has been semi-vindicated, meaning that there were two parts of the story.

00:35:07.380 One is that he was being charged with allegations about something with a 17-year-old girl.

00:35:15.000 We have no actual victim come forward, no details, no evidence.

00:35:19.420 I've seen no evidence that any of that's true.

00:35:22.140 It's just an allegation.

00:35:23.440 But the other part of it was that he claimed he was being blackmailed in some weird scheme for $25 million, or his dad was,

00:35:31.560 and that he would end up with some kind of immunity for his alleged other problems that don't have any evidence that I've seen.

00:35:38.900 And so it's this big, weird story.

00:35:42.220 But you might know that I was also sort of part of it, accidentally.

00:35:48.720 Because as Matt Gaetz forwarded on Twitter some private messages between Jake Novak,

00:35:56.660 who works at the moment at the Israeli consulate.

00:35:59.180 He's American, but he works at the Israeli consulate.

00:36:01.240 And he asked some questions about it.

00:36:06.420 Now, the question you want to ask is,

00:36:10.860 how does Matt Gaetz have a private message from Jake Novak to me?

00:36:17.860 How does he have that?

00:36:20.060 And the answer is, I don't know.

00:36:26.060 Which is funny in and of itself.

00:36:28.700 I actually don't know.

00:36:29.580 I can think of at least four ways he could have it.

00:36:35.420 But I don't know.

00:36:37.000 I mean, I didn't give it to him directly.

00:36:39.420 I will tell you I showed it to one person who has experience in the law enforcement intel world.

00:36:47.200 Doesn't work there, but has experience with that world.

00:36:50.620 Just to get a second opinion.

00:36:52.020 Because when I saw it, all of my spider senses tingled.

00:36:59.440 There was just something wrong with it that felt like a national security problem or not.

00:37:06.020 And I just needed a second opinion.

00:37:09.260 So I did show it to one person.

00:37:12.680 But on top of that, and then I don't know what happened after that.

00:37:17.580 But on top of that, I assume that because we're talking about a foreign nation,

00:37:25.960 I assume that my communication is all compromised.

00:37:32.060 And I assume that probably Jake Novak's communications are probably compromised.

00:37:40.220 And I would think that various intel agencies are probably watching everything I do.

00:37:47.180 Now, without getting into any details, I do know for sure that at least three to four intelligence agencies have been curious about me.

00:38:01.600 Let's just say they've been scot-curious, and part of the question was who I worked for.

00:38:08.300 So apparently I was a little too influential, and it caused people to wonder who I was really working for.

00:38:16.280 Surprise!

00:38:17.520 I'm a patriot.

00:38:19.340 I don't work for anybody.

00:38:22.060 And I think it's weird that people even have to ask the question.

00:38:31.600 Is everybody so bought off that you can't have somebody who literally just wants what's best for the country?

00:38:38.880 Now, everybody, of course, wants what's best for themselves and their family, and that's just normal.

00:38:43.720 But can't you, beyond that, just want what's best for your country?

00:38:49.220 It's not an option.

00:38:50.880 Why not?

00:38:52.760 So I guess I don't know enough about the details of what's happening in this story,

00:38:57.920 but I will just tell you one thing, that if you look at those messages that are now in the public domain,

00:39:04.940 you can see that I was deeply skeptical of the blackmail story, the alleged blackmail story.

00:39:12.020 It wasn't called that at the time.

00:39:14.360 And it appears that, based on the indictment, my skepticism was on point.

00:39:20.140 So the only thing I want to add to the story is, from the first moment I heard it, it sounded like it was sketchy.

00:39:29.060 And it turns out there is something sketchy about it, or at least enough to get an indictment.

00:39:35.080 But we don't know exactly the whole story, so we'll still wait for that.

00:39:40.160 George Soros is tweeting about the Taliban, and he makes a good point. 1.00

00:39:44.940 He says, the Taliban's behavior raises serious concerns about their commitment to respecting human rights.

00:39:54.400 I'll just leave that there for a moment.

00:39:57.640 Just let that settle in a little bit.

00:40:00.540 Let that marinate.

00:40:02.660 Okay, you good?

00:40:04.000 You good?

00:40:04.880 I'm going to read it again, because you're probably thinking, wait, did I hear that right?

00:40:08.860 Yes, according to George Soros, he's a little bit concerned,

00:40:11.680 because the Taliban's behavior raises serious concerns about their commitment to respecting human rights.

00:40:18.600 Yes, George, it turns out we found your limit.

00:40:24.980 We found out the point at which George Soros would say,

00:40:29.640 wait a minute, I'm not so sure this is going in the right direction.

00:40:34.460 It turns out it's the Taliban.

00:40:37.600 Socialism?

00:40:38.800 Cool.

00:40:39.140 Open borders?

00:40:41.620 No problem.

00:40:43.360 Taliban? 0.85

00:40:44.460 Mmm, Taliban, you're on the watch list. 1.00

00:40:48.060 You might not be as cool as I thought at first.

00:40:52.660 So, George Soros, having little second thoughts about the awesomeness of the Taliban? 1.00

00:40:58.580 Good to know.

00:41:00.080 But, am I anti-George Soros?

00:41:05.180 Well, here's the problem.

00:41:06.560 George Soros is being very anti-China at the moment,

00:41:10.080 and he's warning us that China has big trouble coming,

00:41:12.840 and investors should beware.

00:41:16.220 What happens when George Soros,

00:41:18.440 one of the most legendary best investors of all times,

00:41:22.740 tells you to keep your investments away from China,

00:41:25.520 or at least beware of investing in China?

00:41:28.440 What happens?

00:41:29.380 Well, it ain't good for China. 0.91

00:41:32.800 Because if George Soros tells you not to invest in China,

00:41:36.300 or at least that there's, you know, bigger danger than it looks like,

00:41:39.940 he really doesn't like China.

00:41:43.200 That guy, that guy hates China.

00:41:45.980 And he doesn't seem to be a fan of President Xi.

00:41:48.760 So, hate to tell you this, but enemy of my enemy.

00:41:56.100 You know where I'm going.

00:41:57.980 Hate to say it.

00:41:59.500 Enemy of my enemy.

00:42:01.280 So, I'm going to be pro-George Soros when he's anti-China.

00:42:05.300 Anything else, he's going to have to defend a little bit better,

00:42:08.480 like his open borders, etc.

00:42:10.620 But, it's kind of interesting to see that Soros is going after China.

00:42:16.040 Keep an eye on that.

00:42:17.060 All right.

00:42:21.840 That.

00:42:24.100 Yes.

00:42:25.000 That.

00:42:26.760 Is the incredible content that I had for you.

00:42:32.020 Now, I know, I know, you're begging for more,

00:42:34.240 because it was so damn good.

00:42:36.260 So damn good.

00:42:39.280 Oh, Stephan says that Soros is probably shorting China.

00:42:45.120 That's a good point.

00:42:46.220 He probably is.

00:42:47.060 Yeah.

00:42:47.720 Now, that's legal, right?

00:42:49.460 You can shorten something and then talk it down.

00:42:52.160 As long as you're not lying, I think.

00:42:54.640 I believe you can do that.

00:42:55.880 I think that's legal.

00:42:57.520 As long as everything's transparent, it's legal.

00:43:01.320 All right.

00:43:01.700 I'm just looking at some of your comments as they go by.

00:43:07.720 Where has Boo been?

00:43:09.280 Where has Boo been?

00:43:10.400 Well, I got a little bad news about Boo.

00:43:17.120 Boo has little health problems, but I don't know what it is yet.

00:43:21.560 She's a little unstable on her feet, and I think she has a concussion, actually.

00:43:27.520 So I didn't see anything happen, but she's not walking right at the moment.

00:43:34.100 So I'm going to get her checked out.

00:43:36.080 She looks healthy.

00:43:38.240 She's got one eye dilated and one not, and it's not good.

00:43:43.120 So your cat is all sketchy, too?

00:43:52.340 Could be worms, somebody says.

00:43:54.540 Well, yeah, but one eye is dilated more than the other.

00:43:59.100 That's usually a concussion, isn't it?

00:44:01.060 Or a stroke, I suppose so.

00:44:04.040 Yeah.

00:44:04.380 It could be any one of those, but I'll get that checked out.

00:44:07.740 I don't think there's anything I can do about it.

00:44:10.720 Could be an ear infection, but an ear infection would resolve itself faster, I believe.

00:44:16.220 Sounds like a stroke, maybe.

00:44:18.940 Yeah, so I've been giving her ivermectin.

00:44:20.980 No, just kidding.

00:44:22.560 No ivermectin.

00:44:26.920 I'll give her ivermectin for worms, maybe. 0.95

00:44:29.980 Oh, so Christina's, today's her first day of actual aerobatic flying competition.

00:44:40.580 So she's in Redlands, California, where they're having an aerial show, and it's her first competition.

00:44:48.340 So she's competing in the entry-level area. 0.97

00:44:54.000 And that'll happen sometime today.

00:44:55.900 I don't know the exact schedule of the flights.

00:44:59.980 Do you worry about her risk?

00:45:03.600 Yes.

00:45:05.500 But, you know, analyzing risk is sort of a weird thing.

00:45:09.880 So here's the pro and the con.

00:45:11.660 If you hear that your spouse wants to fly airplanes upside down and do tricks in the air, what's the first thing you think?

00:45:21.140 Well, that's pretty dangerous, right?

00:45:23.140 I mean, it's scary.

00:45:25.000 But there are two things you need to know.

00:45:27.260 One is that the height that you are in the air is the biggest factor for whether you're safe.

00:45:33.760 So when they do the air shows, they do them high enough up that if you were to, let's say, lose your, I don't know, balance or lose your control of the airplane,

00:45:45.480 and you're 3,000 feet in the air, and you're a trained aerobatics pilot, it's actually not that dangerous.

00:45:52.560 Because if you're a trained aerobatics pilot, for fun, you put your plane into a spin.

00:45:58.900 So the most dangerous thing a plane can do is to get into a spin, heading down.

00:46:04.260 But aerobatic pilots do that just for practice.

00:46:07.680 They'll just kill their engine, put it into a spin, thousands of feet in the air, and see if they can recover before they hit the ground.

00:46:14.940 Now, generally, they're trained well enough that they can recover almost immediately, so they don't get close to the ground.

00:46:22.180 They can recover the moment they lose their control.

00:46:26.360 So here's the weird part about it.

00:46:29.380 If you're a trained aerobatics pilot, but you happen to be flying some other kind of plane one day, and you get into a spin, an aerobatics pilot can get out of it.

00:46:42.180 A regular pilot has never been in one.

00:46:44.080 It'll be the first time.

00:46:45.980 And their reflexes won't necessarily lead them in the right direction.

00:46:50.200 There's something sort of non-obvious about getting out of a spin.

00:46:54.020 I don't know the details.

00:46:55.600 But so here's the risk-reward.

00:47:00.960 To be an aerobatics pilot adds some risk while you're doing the aerobatics.

00:47:04.920 But to be a trained aerobatics pilot makes your other flying way safer.

00:47:10.900 So what's the net of that?

00:47:14.620 I don't know.

00:47:15.580 I don't know.

00:47:16.400 I can't remember the last time an aerobatics pilot died.

00:47:20.180 Can you think of a time?

00:47:21.680 When was the last time you heard an aerobatics pilot died?

00:47:24.100 I don't think it happens very often.

00:47:27.920 Because as long as they stay high enough in the air, they can pretty much recover anything.

00:47:32.480 And they can land anywhere.

00:47:34.120 Because they're that good.

00:47:35.240 They find a road, flat field, they can pretty much land anywhere.

00:47:38.800 So that's all I've got for now.

00:47:42.420 And I will talk to you.

00:47:43.320 So that's all I've got for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - September 04, 2021

Episode 1489 Scott Adams： Lots of Coffee-Sipping-Worthy Headlines Today

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