Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1499E Scott Adams： Today I Will Talk About Joe Manchin, Swollen Balls, and Other Horrors

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Golden Age. Yeah, it's the Golden Age. And I'll even

00:00:11.300 put on my microphone so that the YouTube people can hear me better. Well, do we have good news

00:00:19.860 for you today? And fun news? And stories that you'll want to hear? Yeah, we do. It's going

00:00:26.620 to be great. But if you'd like to take it up a level, and I know you do, because why

00:00:32.120 would you settle for less? Don't settle for less. You can have it all. All you need is

00:00:38.280 a cup or mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:45.240 Fill with your favorite liquid I like. Coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:52.380 But the dopamine of the day thing makes everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip. And

00:00:59.160 it's going to happen now. Go. 0.69

00:01:07.040 Well, if you made it here on time, you are in for a treat. Because today is the best, funniest,

00:01:16.680 most entertaining news of all time. That's a promise. Let us get right to it.

00:01:25.360 Top of the news, you've heard of the Pegasus spy software that gets on your phone and gets into

00:01:32.280 all your stuff. And it's so advanced that only governments have access to it. But we found out

00:01:40.300 that there was a flaw, or at least a hole, in the Apple phone operating system that this Pegasus

00:01:49.420 software was taking advantage of. And apparently there are names of people who are allegedly targeted

00:02:01.060 by the software, including a lot of journalists and activists. That's right. Journalists and activists

00:02:10.120 are being targeted by foreign nations to be spied upon. And everything on their phone is accessible to

00:02:20.740 them. Everything. Now, have I told you before that one of the weird things about my life

00:02:29.500 is that you read the news, but I'm often in it.

00:02:38.980 McDougall's, I see your comment.

00:02:43.080 Yeah, I mean, you watch the news, but I watch the news and I'm in it. So I read this news about this

00:02:49.020 Pegasus spy program that's targeting activists and reporters and journalists.

00:02:57.980 Am I on that list? And if I'm not, why not? If I were a foreign country, the first person I would 0.58

00:03:09.340 want to look into was me because I seem to be influencing things. Now, I might not be. It could

00:03:15.920 be an illusion. It could be an illusion. It could be just that everything I try to influence seems to go

00:03:20.560 my way. Maybe. Not everything, of course. Nobody, nobody gets everything. But I immediately dropped

00:03:29.120 everything and updated my phone because I guess there's a fix for it. But I'll tell you, I've never

00:03:35.680 updated my software so fast. The moment, the moment I saw that, like, okay, drop everything, drop

00:03:43.940 everything. Because the odds that somehow I've been targeted, just as a, you know, a person who

00:03:49.660 talks in the media about politics and maybe has some influence, that's some scary shit. 0.98

00:03:57.680 Somebody says, Jesse Waters mentioned me last night on Gutfeld. I have that recorded and I will 0.98

00:04:04.920 watch that today. Well, here's some good news. Are you ready for the good, good news? Really good news?

00:04:10.360 Great news? I'm going to give you the best news today that you've ever heard. You ready? Now,

00:04:18.100 some of you don't think it was a problem, climate change. But suppose you did. Or suppose you didn't

00:04:26.860 think it was a problem, but you'd like everybody to shut up about it, which would be a different kind

00:04:31.420 of problem. There are two gigantic happenings that, you know, that can solve climate change. Number one,

00:04:45.160 a carbon capture plant, the world's first and largest, just opened up. It's a factory that sucks air 0.97

00:04:54.240 into it, takes the carbon dioxide out, mixes it with water and turns it into some kind of a limestone

00:05:02.100 and sticks it in the ground. Now, how many factories would you need to suck enough? Yes, in Iceland. 0.95

00:05:11.060 How many would you need? And the company is a Swiss startup called Climeworks. Climb as in climate.

00:05:16.920 Climeworks AG. Now, we know the technology works. Okay? So we don't have to wonder,

00:05:27.520 hey, will this technology work? Already works. They built the factory. They didn't build a prototype.

00:05:33.680 Hear this clearly. It's not a prototype. It's an actual fucking factory that's taking carbon dioxide

00:05:41.680 out of the air. Now, how many do you need? I don't know. But how much more efficient can the carbon 1.00

00:05:51.080 capture become? Well, if it's like everything else in the world, it starts out somewhat barely

00:05:58.280 efficient and it just keeps getting better. What happens when our technology for carbon capture

00:06:04.640 goes from kind of works to really good. Problem solved, right? So when you see that it's already

00:06:14.580 apparently economical in some sense, I don't know. I can't imagine that they have a profit

00:06:20.060 and a what. They're not selling anything. So I don't know who's funding it, but it got funded.

00:06:26.680 So it means that somebody has an interest that's large enough to put money into it.

00:06:30.260 So if you don't have a technical problem, because it works, there's no question about it.

00:06:35.800 It's open, right? It's open and working. You don't have that question. And you don't have a funding

00:06:40.820 problem because many would say it's the biggest problem in the world or whatever. Yeah, it may be

00:06:47.340 inefficient now, but what's it going to be? What will the technology get to in 10 years? That's the

00:06:52.700 question you have to ask yourself. I don't know. So Adam Dopamine was pointing this out, the story out.

00:07:00.260 But it also goes to what I call the Adam's Law of slow-moving disasters. How many of you have

00:07:05.260 heard of that? Have you all heard of the Adam's Law of slow-moving disasters? I named it after

00:07:12.580 myself. And the law states this, that the only disasters you have to really worry about are the

00:07:19.900 ones you didn't see coming. The ones that sneak up on you fast, like the pandemic. Well, arguably,

00:07:25.740 we could have seen that coming, but not the specific one. And the argument goes like this,

00:07:31.580 that whenever we, whenever humanity can see a problem developing over decades, we always solve

00:07:38.240 it. Such as you're going to run out of oil. Nope. We saw it coming and we've learned to frack and do

00:07:46.120 other things. We solved it. You're going to run out of food because there are too many people. Nope.

00:07:52.740 Nope. We just figured out how to grow more food. The cars are going to pollute the air and we won't

00:08:00.220 be able to breathe. Nope. Nope. We just changed some laws and made the smoggy cars go away. It's much

00:08:08.620 better now. Right? So basically, every time you find a problem, how about the ozone hole in the

00:08:17.300 atmosphere? So when I was a kid, the ozone was going to disappear and we'd all be fried by the sun.

00:08:24.780 But we knew it would take a long time to happen. And so we changed some laws and got rid of aerosols

00:08:30.720 and we're fine. So climate change is the prototypical example of that because we're looking at an 80 year

00:08:39.720 kind of timeframe, you know, granted it's the first 20 that might be critical, but it's a lot of time

00:08:46.200 by human standards. That's a lot of time. And the odds that we will figure out workarounds for it

00:08:54.700 are really good. So am I worried about climate change? No, because everybody else is.

00:09:03.900 If everybody else was not worried about climate change, I might be worried about it because I'd

00:09:09.720 be like, Hey, I'm not positive. This is going in the wrong direction, but it might, and nobody's

00:09:15.920 doing anything about it. Ah, but if you tell me we've got decades to work on something and everybody

00:09:22.720 knows it's a problem, or let's say most of the scientists and most of the industry believes it's

00:09:28.060 a problem. Some of you maybe not, but that's exactly the situation that makes me feel comfortable.

00:09:33.560 My ideal situation is there's a problem that will take decades to materialize and we're working

00:09:40.780 really hard to fix it already. That's a good situation. Golden age. Here we come.

00:09:49.160 Now here's the second part of that. I'm all about the good news today. Are you feeling better?

00:09:56.380 Do you feel a little optimism today? All right, here's the second part. If you've been watching

00:10:01.760 Michael Schellenberger talk about green energy being not as useful as we hoped it would be and

00:10:09.500 that nuclear energy actually is the only really feasible way to give us all the energy we need in

00:10:16.520 the future with other sources, of course, but we can't not do nuclear power and we need it for space

00:10:23.240 and blah, blah, blah. But here's the thing. In the history of humanity, or at least let's say your

00:10:31.520 lifetime, have you ever heard of a major debate, let's say a public debate where there are definitely

00:10:38.320 people on both sides, like really dug in. Take abortion. Abortion would be where there's two 1.00

00:10:45.760 sides really dug in. Take socialism. Two sides really dug in. Nothing's going to change. And that

00:10:55.560 defines most of our topics, right? Somebody says there's three sides in some cases. Okay, but I'm

00:11:01.240 simplifying for this. Wouldn't you say that over your entire life, you've never seen a major debate

00:11:08.380 with two sides where somebody just won the debate? And the other side said, okay, you're right.

00:11:18.620 Can you think of any case where that's ever happened?

00:11:20.740 It's happening right now. Do you see all the protesters protesting against the building of

00:11:31.360 nuclear power plants? Nope. Do you see all the people going on television and saying we should

00:11:40.620 close all of our nuclear power plants? Nope. No. Do you know why? Because the debate is over.

00:11:49.340 It's the only time a debate has ever been one that I can think of. You won't even see anybody go on

00:11:57.920 television who's an expert. You know, I'm not talking about some scared citizen, but you won't see any

00:12:03.400 experts on television saying we shouldn't build nuclear power plants. Because if you've got an expert

00:12:10.300 associated with the right, political right, they'd say, yeah, nuclear power plants. But if you've got

00:12:16.640 somebody associated with the left, let's say Joe Biden, he'd say yes on nuclear power plants.

00:12:25.600 Have you ever seen this before? And by the way, I credit Michael Schellenberger for, I don't know,

00:12:32.600 maybe most of this change, because he's worked this harder than I've seen anybody work in the topic ever,

00:12:38.940 and more effectively, by the way, his communication skills are through the roof. Rarely do you see

00:12:45.200 somebody with that kind of communication skill, who, you know, who gets a bite on a topic and just

00:12:52.740 drives it down to ground. But I think he did. I mean, he's testified to Congress enough, and

00:13:00.220 incredibly and persuasively, that you don't even see politicians railing against nuclear power,

00:13:06.500 do you? Because I think it would be embarrassing at this point. Now, if you're a little behind

00:13:11.740 the information here, that the quick version is this. If you are worried about storage of nuclear

00:13:19.120 waste, basically solved. They just store it in big barrels right on site, and they don't ship it

00:13:25.680 anywhere. When was the last time you heard a big story about a gigantic problem of where to store

00:13:32.460 nuclear waste? It's just not a problem. They just store it on site. Problem solved. And how about,

00:13:41.380 I see Fukushima, and listed there, and how about the problem of safety? Because you don't want

00:13:47.800 something like a Fukushima, you know, melting down or something, right? Were you aware that no modern 0.71

00:13:54.500 designed nuclear energy plant has ever had a death or a meltdown? Fukushima is old design,

00:14:01.280 because you don't want something like a Fukushima, you know, melting down or something, right?

00:14:06.860 Were you aware that no modern designed nuclear energy plant has ever had a death or a meltdown?

00:14:14.840 Fukushima is old design. You wouldn't build that today. And even the new designs have been around so long,

00:14:21.460 what we call the newer, you know, generation three. Generation three has never had a problem.

00:14:28.720 Those are the only ones you would build. You wouldn't build a generation two. You wouldn't build

00:14:33.280 a Chernobyl generation one, right? But zero problems with generation three. So if you think that there's

00:14:40.980 a safety problem, you'd have to answer the fact that zero people have ever died.

00:14:45.020 And there's never been a meltdown in a generation three. So waste, storage, solved. Safety,

00:14:57.320 solved. We're really good at generation three. And by the way, generation four won't even have a risk

00:15:03.060 of melting down. And generation four, some of the designs actually eat nuclear waste as their own fuel.

00:15:11.500 So, you know, everything that we were worried about, and then, of course, we've had some

00:15:17.080 breakthroughs in the fission. Fission? Yeah. Or fusion. I'm sorry. We've had some breakthroughs

00:15:22.580 in fusion, which is, you know, even a bigger deal. So if you're looking at climate change,

00:15:29.360 the two biggest things that could possibly ever happen are happening. The debate on nuclear power

00:15:35.000 is over. I've never seen this happen before. I've never seen a debate won. It's really remarkable.

00:15:43.980 Can you think of any other example? I can't.

00:15:49.140 All right. So that's good news. Rasmussen has a new poll out,

00:15:53.720 saying, asking if you believe that the folks who are now in jail because of the January 6th

00:16:00.000 protests at the Capitol, do you believe that they are political prisoners? I'll ask this in the

00:16:07.360 comments, and then I'll tell you what the Rasmussen poll said. Do you think that the people in jail for

00:16:12.180 the January 6th protests are political prisoners? Yes, yes, yes. I'm seeing lots of yeses from the

00:16:19.480 almost all yeses. Yeah. Now, let me ask you this. Let me start by agreeing with you. Okay?

00:16:27.800 So I'm agreeing with you. We're on the same side. I would say that they're political prisoners too.

00:16:33.640 Now, let me, let's go do a mental experiment. Suppose we picked one of them to look at. So you

00:16:40.580 randomly picked one of the people who's in jail for the January 6th stuff. And you say, what's,

00:16:45.560 what's this one in jail for? And they'd probably say something like, well, we have them on video

00:16:50.700 beating a cop with a blunt object. Should that person be in jail? Yeah, of course. Of course.

00:17:00.520 It doesn't matter what you think of politics. If somebody beat a police officer with a blunt object,

00:17:05.480 yeah, yeah, jail. No doubt about it. So let's pick somebody else because that one's obvious. So you pick

00:17:12.120 the next person. Next person. Why is this one here? Well, we also have them on video. Bear spraying a

00:17:20.760 police officer. Okay, well, that one goes, yeah, that one needs to be in jail. I feel like it's all

00:17:27.720 going to be that. Right? If you ask me, do I think they're political prisoners? Yes. But if you actually

00:17:37.700 went down to each one and said, well, what about this one? You know, this one, this one injured a

00:17:43.920 cop? No, not that one. But I'm not entirely sure they're not all that. Are you? Are you sure that

00:17:53.060 that the people in jail just trespassed? Because I don't have that information. Do you? Do you think

00:18:01.560 that the people still in jail, I'm only talking about the ones still in jail. Do you think that their

00:18:06.660 only crime was trespassing? Now, the Viking horn guy is an interesting case, because I don't know

00:18:13.000 that he did anything. Did the Viking horn guy do anything but trespass? So let's put it this way.

00:18:21.880 If there are people who are in jail for just trespassing, then clearly they're political

00:18:26.840 prisoners. But I would imagine they would all be out on bail by now. Wouldn't they? So I feel like I'd

00:18:34.000 need to know a little bit more about that. But emotionally, emotionally and at the high level,

00:18:40.200 yeah, political prisoners. And you know what? Even if they're not, you know, even if you dug down

00:18:47.680 and found there were specific charges that even you would say, okay, that's a specific charge.

00:18:54.280 It still feels like political prisoners. I swear to God, even if you told me the story for every one of

00:19:00.700 those people. You said, all right, look at it. Here's every one of these people. Look at their

00:19:04.720 story. You tell me that they should not be in jail. And I'd say, well, maybe they should be this one.

00:19:10.200 And yet still, I think it's political prisoners. Like I have two opinions that don't even fit together.

00:19:15.520 Yeah, they might be actually violent people. And they're also just political prisoners.

00:19:20.900 I can't help it. I'd love to tell you that I have a consistent opinion, but I don't. Those two things

00:19:26.640 don't fit together. And yet I hold them both as truths. So I don't know if you're different. But anyway,

00:19:34.340 Rasmussen's result was that 49% of the respondents said they agreed strongly or somewhat

00:19:41.640 that the January 6th people are political prisoners.

00:19:45.680 Let that sink in a little bit. Half of the country thinks we're holding political prisoners.

00:19:59.400 Now, I don't know if that's just a, like a political answer to a poll, because it might be,

00:20:05.180 you know, people answer polls the way they want politics to bend. I'm not sure it's their actual

00:20:10.180 opinion that every person there is a political prisoner. But like I said, I have that opinion.

00:20:15.960 Even if the facts don't support it. Like somehow my opinion is completely divorced from any facts,

00:20:22.080 and I don't care. I'm not, I don't even know what that means. I don't know what that says about me.

00:20:28.020 What's it say about me that on this topic, I don't care if the facts support my opinion.

00:20:33.300 Have you ever had that feeling? Where you didn't care if the facts were on your side,

00:20:37.240 it wasn't going to change your opinion? It's a weird feeling. It's one of those times where you can

00:20:43.780 feel your own irrationality. All right. I sent a tweet at Joe Manchin today. I love the fact that

00:20:53.260 I can tweet a member of Congress. And the odds that that member of Congress will see the tweet

00:20:59.520 are actually really good. Isn't that weird? Because, you know, and especially because I have a lot of

00:21:05.700 followers and I've got a blue check, I'm pretty sure if you're a senator, you probably see all the

00:21:11.660 blue check tweets about yourself, don't you? Because it only takes, you know, a minute a day to look at

00:21:16.500 Twitter. So I feel like you probably saw it, or we'll see it. But here's what I tweeted at Joe

00:21:22.800 Manchin, who, as you know, is in control of everything, because he's the only senator who is

00:21:27.980 willing to vote against his own party when things are evenly split. So it gives him all the power.

00:21:33.220 And he's got the power for the infrastructure bill. And I guess he's also got the power

00:21:39.180 on some kind of a voting access bill that the Democrats also want.

00:21:45.960 So I tweeted this at him. I said, hey, Senator Joe Manchin, since you control Congress now,

00:21:52.400 how about getting us a law forcing states to have instantly fully auditable elections,

00:21:58.720 including any software or hardware components, in addition to more voting options. So I don't have

00:22:04.580 any problem with voting options. I'm certainly not going to be the person who says, hey, let's

00:22:12.000 suppress the hours people can vote, or suppress the way that they vote, or anything like that.

00:22:17.960 I'm not going to do that. But I think we need the federal government to force the states to work

00:22:28.180 toward some kind of instantly, instantly. So that's the key word. It has to be instant.

00:22:34.300 We can't wait six months for a fucking audit, like we are now. It's got to be instant. Otherwise, 0.99

00:22:41.460 it's useless. Because if it's not instant, you're still going to install the public,

00:22:45.460 the politician, and it's just sort of too late. So it's got to be instant. And we could totally do

00:22:50.860 that. And fully auditable, meaning the software, the hardware, and everything else. Now, what's the

00:22:57.000 fastest way to do that? What's the fastest way to have an instantly auditable election? How long would

00:23:05.600 it take to make that happen? One programmer, one day per state. One programmer, one day. That's the

00:23:21.120 entire effort. Per state. You know, one per state. There is a database that says you voted. Is there

00:23:27.720 not? Or there should be. You should be able to just check your vote. That's it. Your vote should be

00:23:39.460 registered in the big database in the sky. And as soon as you vote, you know, wait five minutes or

00:23:45.800 whatever. You should be able to hit an app. And it should tell you what happened to your vote. Now,

00:23:52.900 you might say to yourself, wait a minute, ID is the problem, right? Because you don't want a person's 1.00

00:23:56.660 identification matched to their vote. How hard would it be to fix that? Add five minutes. Add five minutes.

00:24:07.980 Because you want to store in the database a secret code that does identify the person, but only they can

00:24:13.520 unlock it. You know, they've got the key. So the person who did the vote is the only person who can

00:24:19.260 identify their own vote on the system because they've got the matching key. How hard is that?

00:24:26.260 All right. Now, of course, I'm exaggerating. It's not five minutes. Everything takes a year.

00:24:30.640 But we should be working toward it. If you think it can be done, of course it can be done.

00:24:37.000 Of course it can. It's not, I mean, conceptually, it's not even difficult. I just told you how to do

00:24:44.520 it. All you need is for people to be able to track their vote. Now, the only thing it wouldn't catch

00:24:51.000 is fake votes, right? Am I right? The only thing it wouldn't catch is a fake vote. But could you

00:24:58.580 engineer a solution to that by randomly querying people who voted to find out if they're really

00:25:08.220 the real person? So you'd have to have two ways to look. One, to make sure that if you are a real

00:25:14.080 person who voted, that your vote got registered the way you wanted it to. But secondly, if there

00:25:18.800 are votes that are fake people, that you can randomly, not all of them, but randomly you can query the real

00:25:25.980 person and say, your vote was registered. Did you vote? I feel like it's doable. And I think Joe

00:25:34.380 Manchin might be the only person who has enough power to make it happen. Stick that in there as a

00:25:38.840 requirement. By 2024, you have to have a fully auditable system or whatever. There would be your

00:25:48.040 golden age if we could get that done. There's a video that I tweeted around that I highly recommend

00:25:55.620 just because it's fun to watch. In China, they demolished 15 skyscrapers at the same time.

00:26:03.240 And there's a video of a, it looks like maybe a city block or something. So there were 15

00:26:08.240 skyscrapers that they built, but never had any occupants for them. They didn't finish them.

00:26:13.760 So I guess they got, the basements got flooded and maybe they became unsafe or something. So it was no

00:26:19.340 longer practical to finish them. So they blew them up. Now, I guess this is not the first time they've done

00:26:25.540 massive multiple building destructions. They've done it in other places where they were clearing

00:26:31.300 out buildings. I think they've done like 36 at one time, but watching 15 skyscrapers blow up at the

00:26:37.920 same time, you know, because they, they, they blow up in a controlled explosion so that they just sink into

00:26:43.120 the dust. It's really cool. It's really cool. So look on my Twitter feed. It would be, I just tweeted

00:26:49.840 it this morning. So it's near the top and just, just to watch it for fun. Uh, it's really kind of

00:26:57.120 impressive, kind of impressive. Well, let's talk about the California, uh, recall race. The election

00:27:04.240 news today, early official election day. And something very odd has happened. Very odd.

00:27:16.480 Number one, well, a few odd things. Um, number one, uh, Newsom said, I think it was yesterday

00:27:25.360 that a vote for Larry Elder is a vote against diversity and racial justice.

00:27:31.180 That's right. A vote against who would be the first black Republican governor, Larry Elder, if he,

00:27:41.140 if he wins, uh, voting for him to be the first black Republican governor of California

00:27:50.340 is a vote against diversity. It's against diversity. I don't know. I don't know how you even say that

00:27:58.420 with a straight face. Now, apparently there is approved diversity and unapproved diversity.

00:28:03.620 And the type of diversity that Larry Elder would bring is apparently unapproved.

00:28:08.420 The Democrats do not approve of that particular type of diversity. Uh, there's good diversity and

00:28:13.740 bad diversity. And I guess he's got the bad kind according to Newsom. Uh, but we've got this match 0.99

00:28:20.400 and gasoline situation happening with this California recall. I don't feel that the mood

00:28:26.800 of the voters, um, is up to revolution mostly because Democrats are going to be, I'm sorry, Republicans

00:28:34.720 will be the victims and they tend not to hit the streets so much, but there's something very bad going

00:28:41.120 on that could be coincidence or something very bad is going on. I don't know which it is, but I'm open

00:28:50.800 to the possibility of either one. So let me give you an example of what's going on here. Uh, you may

00:28:56.320 know that the, uh, polling for who's going to win or whether or not the recall would be successful.

00:29:01.760 The polling in August looked like it was too close to call. It was like within 1%.

00:29:06.240 What's the polling today? Not even close. Newsom's going to win like 57% if the, if the polling is

00:29:16.240 accurate. Now, what happened between August and now that would make it from a super tight race

00:29:23.680 where it looked like elder would win actually because of the trend line to not even close

00:29:29.520 one month. In one month, it went from, from too close to call to not even close. Somebody says it's

00:29:37.920 money, something about the way they campaigned. Nope. It turns out that the explanation given in the

00:29:45.040 news today is that the August polls were wrong and that's because they worded the poll wrong and they

00:29:52.720 got the wrong result. Now, isn't that convenient? The, the, the one race that we think, not we,

00:30:03.200 I'll take myself out of it. Um, the one race which many, many Republicans think will be rigged.

00:30:10.320 I'm not saying it will be. I'm saying that Republicans are claiming that

00:30:14.880 that happens to be the same race that the polls suspiciously went from totally agreeing

00:30:21.360 with Republicans to suddenly totally disagreeing. Exactly the way you'd expect a rigged poll

00:30:30.720 to come out because what would be the problem if the poll said it was super close, but the vote wasn't

00:30:41.520 because we were almost heading for a really big problem, weren't we? Wouldn't it be a really big

00:30:46.240 problem if the poll said it should be close, but the vote said it wasn't and people thought it was a

00:30:53.920 rigged vote? Republicans would take that as proof, but suddenly by coincidence, and by the way, I'm only

00:31:04.560 going to claim it's a coincidence because I don't have evidence of anything else. But as coincidences go,

00:31:10.640 I don't think it could be worse. It's a coincidence of a match being dropped in gasoline. Because if the polls

00:31:20.800 are bullshit and you already don't believe the vote itself, your credibility is just shot. And credibility 0.99

00:31:32.240 is the only thing that holds our system together. That's it. Credibility. You take the credibility

00:31:38.080 away and it all falls apart unless you use force. So how many, let's say, irregularities are happening

00:31:47.200 in the vote? Well, if you're following Dave Rubin, and you should, follow Dave Rubin on Twitter and also

00:31:54.000 on Locals. He and a number of other people are sort of, you know, getting into the details of what's

00:32:01.600 happening there. And there's a lot of tweets in which people are responding to what they've personally

00:32:05.920 observed. Now, it's all anecdotal. Anecdotal means it doesn't mean it necessarily represents

00:32:13.120 a large trend. It's just people having specific experiences and reporting them, and you don't

00:32:19.280 even know if they're real people, right? So whatever credibility you want to put on these next claims,

00:32:26.240 lower it a little bit, right? Now remember, I've told you that all election fraud claims,

00:32:33.280 if you looked at the whole body of all claims made about all elections everywhere all the time,

00:32:38.480 at least in the United States, they're going to be wrong 95% of the time, right?

00:32:45.680 So 95% of all election fraud claims, at least big ones, big claims, turn out to be wrong. At least 95.

00:32:53.680 Could be 100%, but at least 95%. So keep that in mind. And when I tell you that there are all kinds

00:33:01.440 of reports of irregularities in the California election. So you got people who got mailed,

00:33:06.800 you know, two ballots, one for the person who used to live there, one for them, people who got two

00:33:12.480 ballots for one for their maiden name, and one for their old name, people who got ballots

00:33:17.280 out of the state when they haven't been in the state for a long time.

00:33:20.480 And I won't go through all the examples, but it's just lots of examples of people with a specific

00:33:32.240 complaint. Now, are those specific complaints enough or even credible enough to imagine that

00:33:39.920 there's some massive problem going on? I don't see it yet. It looks like just a whole bunch of

00:33:45.280 individual complaints of various credibility. But boy, is it a red flag. If you're asking,

00:33:53.920 is fraud proven? I'd say no, no, there's no fraud proven. And I don't see evidence that necessarily

00:34:01.200 will be proven. But damn, there's a lot of questions. And can you have a system that doesn't 0.98

00:34:07.120 have credibility? Because there are so many questions. And if Joe Manchin had done the job

00:34:13.120 that we'd love him to do, wouldn't we already have an election where you'd say,

00:34:18.800 well, there are lots of irregularities, but thank goodness you can check to see if your vote got

00:34:23.200 registered correctly? Can't. All of these problems would go away. It wouldn't matter how many claims

00:34:30.320 you heard of irregularities. As long as you could check your own vote, you'd be pretty happy.

00:34:36.560 Yeah. Please provide data if you're 95% false claim. That's observational. It's not based on data.

00:34:48.320 So I observe over the years that if you watch the claims and then you just wait long enough to see

00:34:53.760 if they get proven or disproven, they're 95% of the time they'll be disproven. So that's exactly the

00:34:59.840 experience we had with the 2020 election. I mean, I haven't seen any that were proven,

00:35:06.880 but certainly were a lot of claims. All right. And apparently there's one story that 70% of the

00:35:16.480 voters somewhere were being turned away because the system said they had already voted. And then

00:35:22.240 there was a claim that it was a software problem. But then there was a clarification that it was more

00:35:26.960 about an out-of-date poll book. I don't know what an out-of-date poll book is or how that fit into the

00:35:34.480 story. But let's say that they do know that was the problem. It turns out it was more like a handful

00:35:39.360 of people and they figured out what the problem was and they fixed it. I think it's being reported as

00:35:44.480 a massive problem where it might have been just an anecdotal thing that one area screwed up a little

00:35:51.120 bit. So I wouldn't be too worried about that. Anyway, there are massive, let's say, reports of individual

00:36:01.760 problems, but I haven't seen enough of the same kind of problem to suggest massive fraud. Now, what are the

00:36:09.760 odds that Republicans will believe there was massive fraud in the California election? It's 100%. Because even

00:36:18.960 Trump weighed in on this and said, he said, does anybody really believe that the California recall election

00:36:26.560 isn't rigged? That's what Trump asked. Now, notice how cleverly he words it. If he claimed it was rigged, then

00:36:36.560 he'd be in a little bit of trouble. But if he says, does anybody believe it isn't rigged? He's talking about what you

00:36:42.480 think. And that's fair. Because that's a fair statement. He accurately is calling what we think,

00:36:50.160 which is different from knowing what is actually happening.

00:36:57.120 So I don't know if anything's going to blow up based on the result. It does look like Newsom

00:37:03.440 might win unless there's massive Republican turnout, which I suppose could happen.

00:37:08.640 Here's a story that I've been noodling about all day, because I didn't think this was true.

00:37:13.760 But I googled, and I think it is true. Did you know that ice cream is highly recommended for people

00:37:20.960 with dementia? How many people knew that? That ice cream, specifically ice cream, is highly recommended

00:37:29.200 for people with dementia. Apparently, what it does is, if your dementia is causing you to get

00:37:37.200 worked up and angry about stuff, which is, you know, the most common, or one of the most common side

00:37:42.560 effects of having dementia. Apparently, the ice cream just puts you in a different head.

00:37:48.880 As soon as you start eating the ice cream, your brain just says, ooh, ice cream, and then you relax.

00:37:54.640 And all of your extra anger from the dementia just seems to go away. Now, I didn't think this was a

00:38:02.240 real thing until I googled it and saw it's actually recommended. Now, let's talk about Joe Biden.

00:38:12.160 They literally send him out for ice cream.

00:38:14.320 And he loves his ice cream. Yeah, all right. So I think this ice cream thing,

00:38:24.240 how can we ignore his dementia at this point? It's kind of obvious, isn't it? Kind of obvious.

00:38:32.800 All right, there's a lot of, I see a lot of chatter about personal choice and vaccines. And some people

00:38:39.120 saying, you know, whether or not the vaccinations are a good idea or a bad idea, it should be a personal

00:38:45.360 choice whether you take them. To which I say, no, it never is. These things are just power.

00:38:54.560 There are a lot of issues that we act as though,

00:39:00.240 we act as though if we made a better argument, we could win.

00:39:05.360 But it's never about that. The vaccinations are about power. If the people who want everybody to

00:39:11.760 get vaccinated have more power, then maybe it'll happen. And if they don't have enough power, it won't

00:39:16.560 happen. It has nothing to do with what's right or wrong. We should just figure out who has more power

00:39:22.640 and just go with that. Let's talk about your balls. So the big story is that Tucker Carlson did a 0.99

00:39:31.440 segment talking about Nicki Minaj's tweet in which Nicki said that her cousin's friend's testicles

00:39:42.560 swelled up after getting the vaccination and it made him impotent, not impotent, made him unable to have

00:39:50.480 children and caused his planned wedding to be canceled. Now, there are many funny things about this

00:39:58.320 story and I don't know where to begin. Number one, as some doctors pointed out,

00:40:03.840 Nicki Minaj, I think you just outed your cousin's friend for having chlamydia, 0.99

00:40:09.520 because that's what makes your balls swell up. And that may be, but it made me wonder 0.99

00:40:19.120 what would be the side effect if this is actually a side effect of the vaccination.

00:40:23.520 Now, and let me remind you, if a billion people get a vaccination, 0.89

00:40:29.040 someone in that billion people is going to get swollen balls the next day. Not necessarily because 0.84

00:40:36.720 of the vaccination, but if a billion people do anything, somebody is going to have something

00:40:42.480 happen the next day. It doesn't matter what it is. You'll have everything that could happen.

00:40:47.200 Somebody is going to have it. So the fact that one guy's balls got bigger after a vaccination 0.99

00:40:53.840 doesn't mean it was caused by the vaccination. But on average, wouldn't you expect, I don't know 0.98

00:41:02.000 how they measure this exactly, because on average, wouldn't you expect that the people who did get 0.97

00:41:06.800 the vaccination and were not afraid of it, on average, wouldn't they have bigger balls? 0.90

00:41:12.160 Because they're the ones who weren't, were not afraid of the vaccination. So the people are not

00:41:19.440 afraid. On average, wouldn't they have bigger balls? What? No, doesn't work that way. 1.00

00:41:31.040 Don't hate me. It's just a joke. So Martin, here's the other funny thing is that

00:41:39.200 Nicki Minaj is his cousin's friend with the swollen testicles. 0.98

00:41:45.280 He, I know a little bit about him. I did some research. It turns out he wanted to be famous. 0.97

00:41:51.040 He wanted to be famous. And by the way, if you go over to the locals platform, you can see it fine.

00:41:58.080 He wanted to be famous, but he did, he fell a little short. So instead, all right,

00:42:04.080 fuck you. I'll just turn off YouTube. So this guy with the swollen balls wanted to be famous, 1.00

00:42:09.600 but only his balls are. And so that is a story of Nicki Minaj's cousin's balls. Now, 0.99

00:42:19.600 if you wanted people to take the vaccination, and you want to persuade them, what would be a good way

00:42:23.600 to do it? Well, one way to do it is to tell people that COVID itself would make your ball shrink.

00:42:29.280 If I heard that there was any chance at all that COVID would make my balls shrink,

00:42:36.000 what are the odds that I would go get that vaccination? Pretty good. Pretty good. Because

00:42:44.480 I would take a 1 in 100 chance of dying, but I wouldn't take a 1 in 100 chance of my balls shrinking. 0.98

00:42:51.760 Am I right? Now, I know that's not logical. I'm not saying it's rational. But men, men back me on this. 0.95

00:42:59.520 You would take a 1 in 100 chance of dying, if it meant doing a sport or doing something you like. 0.98

00:43:05.520 But wouldn't you take a 1 in 100 chance of your balls shrinking? Yeah, you might not. So persuasion-wise, 0.95

00:43:14.560 yeah, persuasion-wise, telling people that COVID would shrink your balls, 0.98

00:43:20.960 it's not true as far as I know. But if you could tell people that and make them believe it, 0.95

00:43:24.880 they'd probably go get the shot. All right, I got to go do some other things. And I will talk to you

00:43:32.080 later. Sorry about the YouTube thing. Thorium doesn't need a water supply. Yeah,

00:43:40.160 China is testing in the Gobi Desert. Excellent. Hope it works out. 0.99

00:43:44.800 And I will talk to you all tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - September 14, 2021

Episode 1499E Scott Adams： Today I Will Talk About Joe Manchin, Swollen Balls, and Other Horrors

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