Real Coffee with Scott Adams - September 20, 2021


Episode 1505 Scott Adams： Today I Will Trigger Massive Cognitive Dissonance in My Audience. You Should Not Watch.


Episode Stats

Length

50 minutes

Words per Minute

144.04633

Word Count

7,239

Sentence Count

616

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

8


Summary

This is the most provocative and annoying live stream you'll ever see. If you don't want to have that happen to you, just turn it off. It's going to make a lot of people mad, like, really mad.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody.
00:00:04.160 Welcome to the most provocative and annoying live stream you'll ever see for the rest of
00:00:11.920 your life.
00:00:13.200 Today, unlike most of my live streams, where I try to entertain you and make you happy,
00:00:21.220 today will make you very unhappy.
00:00:23.920 In fact, so unhappy, I recommend you turn it off right now.
00:00:27.700 This will be the, I don't know, maybe I've done this before, but quite literally, it's
00:00:35.220 going to make a lot of you really mad, like really, really mad.
00:00:39.240 If you don't want to have that happen to you, just turn it off, because you don't need that
00:00:43.420 kind of trouble in your life, probably.
00:00:46.500 Here's what's going to happen.
00:00:49.120 I'm going to take apart some of the arguments about COVID.
00:00:54.100 We'll do that at the end, so I'm going to do the general stuff first.
00:00:56.840 If you want to hang in here for that.
00:00:58.680 But when we talk about the COVID stuff, I'm only going to be talking about decision making.
00:01:05.220 I don't care.
00:01:06.560 Let me be as clear as possible about this.
00:01:09.780 I love you all, and I don't care if you live or die.
00:01:15.860 Can you accept that?
00:01:17.580 I love you all, and I don't care if you live or die.
00:01:21.060 As long as you're pursuing your life the way you want to pursue it.
00:01:25.600 If you want to do some extreme sports and you die, I love you, but I also don't care,
00:01:33.380 because you did what you wanted to do.
00:01:34.860 You died the way you wanted to die.
00:01:36.900 And I'm all for that, completely.
00:01:39.020 So, if you can't accept the fact that I love you, but I'm totally okay with you killing yourself any way you want to, really.
00:01:48.460 That's just your business.
00:01:49.920 So, I'm not going to try to shill any vaccinations or anything like that.
00:01:53.800 And let me even go the extra distance.
00:01:59.340 I am so much into your personal freedom that I will risk my life for you to have that right.
00:02:08.040 Because in some small sense, you know, we all take a little extra risk if you take a little extra risk, with the virus anyway.
00:02:15.380 Because if you get sick, maybe you get other people sick, etc.
00:02:19.100 But, I'm not going to stop you, because your freedom might cost me a little bit, or be dangerous to me.
00:02:28.240 I let you drive a car, and yet you might take a drink and drive your car into my car.
00:02:34.360 But that doesn't stop me from letting you drive, or trying to stop you from driving, as if I could.
00:02:40.400 I don't care that you do dangerous sports, even though I know that raises my healthcare costs.
00:02:46.720 You know, if you hurt yourself, and it raises the expense of healthcare for everybody in the country.
00:02:52.760 I'll take that.
00:02:53.680 I'll take that risk for your personal freedom.
00:02:56.620 So, I'm very, very strongly in favor of your personal freedom, even when it affects me or has a risk that I accept.
00:03:06.000 Because I figure you do the same for me, right?
00:03:08.620 I take risks.
00:03:10.360 You pay for my risks, too.
00:03:12.620 Part of the deal.
00:03:13.220 All right, let's talk about some other stuff.
00:03:17.760 Rasmussen asked people if they think the economy will be getting stronger or weaker in the coming year.
00:03:25.380 29%.
00:03:25.820 Thank you, Hannah.
00:03:29.540 We will do the sip in a moment.
00:03:31.400 I have not forgotten.
00:03:34.480 29% said the economy will be stronger, but 47% said they expect it to be weaker next year.
00:03:40.880 47% of the country thinks the economy will be weaker next year.
00:03:47.940 Remember what I told you about economics?
00:03:50.440 One of the few things I know something about.
00:03:53.100 If anybody's new to me, I have a degree in economics and an MBA.
00:03:57.820 Okay, so one of the things that economists know is that economics is an optimism machine.
00:04:07.240 Optimism, specifically your expectation that next year will be okay, is what drives economics.
00:04:13.880 Because you won't invest in anything if you think it won't pay off.
00:04:18.780 So you have to have optimism in order to invest.
00:04:21.420 And you have to have investment in order to have an economy.
00:04:24.560 So optimism drives everything.
00:04:25.920 If I make a deal with you, any kind of a business deal, it's based on optimism that you will pay me back or you'll do your part of the deal.
00:04:36.880 Without optimism, everything falls apart.
00:04:39.920 So I've argued that Trump brought the optimism in a way few people could.
00:04:46.560 He was a salesperson for the economy, for the United States, America first.
00:04:51.300 And I feel as if Trump was unambiguously the better optimism president.
00:04:57.400 He said it directly.
00:04:58.940 I'm going to be the cheerleader for the country and for the economy.
00:05:02.100 And then he went out and did it.
00:05:04.140 And even people who didn't like Trump still thought the economy was going to do well.
00:05:11.320 So I don't think you can ignore this.
00:05:14.720 That the president is pretty directly a cause of what you think about the economy.
00:05:21.480 Now suppose Trump had been president, but we still had all this debt.
00:05:27.140 You know, debts, it's something you've got to worry about.
00:05:30.160 It's not exactly like personal debt.
00:05:32.140 We don't quite understand national debt.
00:05:35.480 Economists, I think, would agree that they were completely wrong about how much debt we could take on.
00:05:42.500 Completely wrong.
00:05:43.360 I mean, like, maybe by a factor of 10, they've been wrong.
00:05:49.720 Or were they wrong?
00:05:50.980 Maybe we can't handle the debt.
00:05:52.520 Maybe we'll be surprised.
00:05:54.160 But certainly, you know, national debt doesn't operate the way personal debt does.
00:05:58.360 With personal debt, you kind of know what's too much.
00:06:00.620 You know, at least within a narrow range.
00:06:04.300 But with national debt, we don't know.
00:06:06.860 You know, as long as you have nuclear weapons and people like your currency better than other currency,
00:06:10.960 I don't know, maybe you can just inflate away most of your troubles and nobody notices.
00:06:18.940 Somebody's suggesting that we all pray for rain.
00:06:22.280 Worth a shot.
00:06:23.680 Pray for rain for the whole country.
00:06:26.740 So how about this Woodward book?
00:06:28.500 So the book Peril that we're all talking about, I learned yesterday that in that book,
00:06:35.180 Woodward treats the fine people hoax as though it's a historical fact.
00:06:39.440 Not a fact that it's a hoax, Woodward treats the fine people hoax like it's not a hoax, like it actually happened.
00:06:50.420 And he reports it as one of the reasons that Biden was so interested in being president.
00:06:55.060 Now, there are many sketchy things in this and other Woodward books.
00:07:00.580 Things which are quotes that people say, I didn't really say that, etc.
00:07:03.960 But here's the thing.
00:07:10.000 I'm starting to wonder if Watergate really happened.
00:07:13.920 Right?
00:07:15.340 Because everything we knew about Watergate came from Woodward and Bernstein, at least originally.
00:07:22.280 And they don't have any credibility.
00:07:25.100 I mean, I suppose they did when they did the Watergate stuff.
00:07:30.900 But at the moment, we know that Woodward, at least, is not a credible character.
00:07:35.960 He's not even close.
00:07:37.940 I mean, if you believe the fine people hoax and you put it in a book, in 2021 it's in a book,
00:07:43.880 that's embarrassing, really.
00:07:46.160 It doesn't seem like there's any interest in the truth.
00:07:52.740 And I'm semi-joking about doubting Watergate.
00:07:57.140 But here's what I do think.
00:07:58.560 I wonder if the details of Watergate are even close.
00:08:02.120 Probably the big picture is right.
00:08:04.740 Well, I bet the details are all wrong.
00:08:07.400 If these guys were the only source of those details.
00:08:10.800 I suppose a lot of it could be independently checked.
00:08:13.000 All right, we've got a little mystery here with excess mortality.
00:08:18.480 Who knows if the data is right, but it comes from ourworldanddata.org.
00:08:23.660 And Adam Dopamine was tweeting about this.
00:08:26.600 Apparently the numbers showed that 2020 was a much higher than normal excess mortality.
00:08:32.620 Completely understandable.
00:08:34.380 Because we had a massive pandemic.
00:08:37.200 So the 2020 numbers make complete sense.
00:08:40.360 Way higher than the baseline.
00:08:41.640 We had a pandemic.
00:08:43.460 Perfectly explained.
00:08:45.800 But 2021 is below average.
00:08:49.100 Can you explain that?
00:08:51.120 How do you explain that we're below average mortality?
00:08:57.920 How do you explain?
00:08:59.720 Well, let me give you an explanation that I think makes sense.
00:09:04.340 That the people who are going to die this year died last year.
00:09:08.740 Right?
00:09:09.000 The pandemic took out all the people closest to death.
00:09:14.620 And if you take out all the people who are closest to death, the obvious outcome of that should be a lower than normal death rate for the next three to five years.
00:09:26.000 Probably three.
00:09:27.440 Wouldn't you say?
00:09:28.100 Yeah.
00:09:28.340 The vulnerable died early.
00:09:29.360 So I think this number actually makes perfect sense.
00:09:32.760 Doesn't mean it's right.
00:09:34.240 Could be there's a lag.
00:09:36.020 Could be the data's wrong.
00:09:37.100 Any of those are a possibility.
00:09:38.720 But it makes sense.
00:09:40.420 Based on what we know, it's a perfectly sensible outcome, even if it turns out later to be wrong.
00:09:46.000 There's some weird things happening with my printer here.
00:09:58.840 Oh, here we go.
00:10:01.000 All right.
00:10:02.860 We're going to talk about COVID stuff now.
00:10:06.640 So those of you who don't like this conversation, I would invite you to leave because you don't need to have any bad feelings about me.
00:10:13.980 Just come back when I'm not talking about this.
00:10:16.920 Now, I did hear your...
00:10:18.220 I have heard all of your complaints.
00:10:21.440 Yeah, we will do this simultaneous sip before I do this.
00:10:24.200 That's a good idea.
00:10:25.480 Thank you on locals for reminding me.
00:10:29.380 Actually, why don't we do that now?
00:10:31.700 You know, if you'd like to enjoy this morning to the maximum potential, what you need is a simultaneous sip.
00:10:38.540 And all you need for that is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chelsea, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.
00:10:44.900 Fill it with your favorite liquid.
00:10:46.340 I like coffee.
00:10:48.220 And join me now, commercial free, for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine here of the day, the thing that makes everything better.
00:10:57.840 It's called the simultaneous sip.
00:10:59.760 It happens now.
00:11:00.760 Go.
00:11:00.900 Go.
00:11:05.600 Ah, yeah.
00:11:07.780 Yeah, so good.
00:11:08.920 All right, we're going to talk about COVID stuff, but as you know, my beat is not health.
00:11:16.940 My beat is not health.
00:11:19.040 So none of this is about your health choices, okay?
00:11:21.760 It's only about how you think about it.
00:11:24.080 The only thing I care about is how you think about it.
00:11:28.240 Don't care if you die, as long as you're living your life the way you want it.
00:11:32.940 All right.
00:11:34.560 So here's the first question.
00:11:39.160 If hearing that some percentage of vaccinated people are still getting COVID makes you conclude that vaccinations don't work, I've got one question for you.
00:11:50.760 How does confirmation feel when you're in it?
00:11:53.780 Now, here's the thing you need to know about confirmation bias.
00:11:56.500 The people who have it don't know it.
00:12:01.160 But the people who don't have it, because for whatever reason they're uninterested in the question usually, they can see it.
00:12:08.140 It's like really obvious to the observer if you're being irrational.
00:12:11.920 It's just not obvious to you.
00:12:14.200 So I'm telling you that if you have this opinion, you're experiencing confirmation bias.
00:12:20.580 I'm a third party, and I'm not terribly interested one way or the other.
00:12:24.380 Because like I said, I don't care if you live or die.
00:12:26.720 I don't care if you get vaccinated or not.
00:12:29.400 Moreover, I'm not even so sure I made the right decision.
00:12:33.780 Hear this really clearly.
00:12:36.060 I got vaccinated.
00:12:38.100 I made that decision.
00:12:39.940 Am I sure I made the right decision?
00:12:42.480 Nope.
00:12:43.760 Nope.
00:12:44.860 If I were sure I made the right decision, then you could say to me, hmm, hmm, might be confirmation bias.
00:12:51.160 But I'm telling you I'm not sure.
00:12:55.280 That's almost a guaranteed get-out-of-jail card.
00:12:58.760 If you can say unambiguously, I don't know.
00:13:01.660 I could be wrong.
00:13:02.920 It could be that getting vaccinated was a big mistake.
00:13:05.940 Maybe.
00:13:07.160 I mean, I don't think so.
00:13:08.340 I'm playing the odds.
00:13:09.780 I think the odds are strongly in my favor.
00:13:12.840 But I don't know.
00:13:14.380 And the people who are skeptical are not crazy.
00:13:17.280 Are they?
00:13:17.860 Are they?
00:13:19.880 Is anybody who's skeptical crazy?
00:13:22.340 We do have a vaccination that, you know, we don't know, you know, if anything could pop up in the long term.
00:13:31.260 Who knows?
00:13:32.560 I don't think so.
00:13:34.080 I think the risk was worth it.
00:13:36.020 But I don't know.
00:13:37.620 Okay?
00:13:37.840 So here's your first tip.
00:13:40.220 Remember, I'm not telling you anything about vaccinating or not vaccinating.
00:13:44.240 I'm just talking about the psychology of it.
00:13:46.740 If you can say out loud, I made a choice, but I really don't know if it's the right one.
00:13:52.560 You might not have confirmation bias.
00:13:56.380 That would be one way to tell.
00:13:58.580 But if you say to yourself, I didn't get the vaccination, then damn it, I'm right.
00:14:02.880 I'm really right.
00:14:05.120 Hmm.
00:14:05.660 You might.
00:14:06.540 You might be right.
00:14:07.860 That's one possibility.
00:14:09.480 But you might have confirmation bias.
00:14:11.540 The person who says, I don't know if I'm right or not, almost certainly doesn't.
00:14:15.020 Because the conditions for it don't exist.
00:14:20.760 But here's the problem.
00:14:22.900 What if, and I'll just put this the way I put it to my critic.
00:14:28.080 It looks like the page didn't print here or something in my notes.
00:14:37.060 If you think that the vaccinations don't work because you need a booster, does anybody
00:14:43.680 think that?
00:14:44.160 Is there anybody here who would say to me, the vaccinations don't work because you need
00:14:50.360 boosters?
00:14:51.880 Or I'll modify that.
00:14:53.680 They don't work as promised because you need boosters.
00:14:58.260 Does anybody think that?
00:15:00.020 Who has that opinion?
00:15:02.760 That vaccinations don't work, or at least don't work as promised because of boosters?
00:15:08.640 Well, do you know that tetanus shots are vaccinations and they require boosters?
00:15:16.260 Did you know that?
00:15:16.840 There are other shots which require boosters.
00:15:21.160 It's not the only one.
00:15:22.260 Now, if you get a tetanus shot, you might need it only every 10 years or some say even 30.
00:15:30.340 Is the tetanus shot just as good in, let's say, the eighth year as it was the first year?
00:15:35.820 What do you think?
00:15:36.960 Is that tetanus shot just as good in year nine as it was in year one?
00:15:43.140 Well, apparently not, unless booster shots are 100% until the day they're not.
00:15:50.900 I don't think that's the case.
00:15:52.560 Seems like they probably just wear off slowly and after 10 years, it's smart to get another
00:15:57.420 one.
00:15:57.620 But could you say that somebody who has the tetanus shot could still get tetanus?
00:16:05.680 Well, yes, right?
00:16:07.440 Because otherwise there wouldn't be boosters, would there?
00:16:09.980 If you couldn't get tetanus while you also had a tetanus vaccination, you would never need
00:16:17.880 a booster.
00:16:19.400 Somebody fact-checked me on that.
00:16:20.900 I mean, it sounds logical, but with this medical stuff, there could be some non-obvious
00:16:25.160 explanation for things.
00:16:26.240 All right?
00:16:28.480 So, I would say the fact that the vaccinations do not work perfectly, and for as long as
00:16:35.820 you'd like them to, is not uncommon, and therefore not a question of whether they work or don't
00:16:42.500 work.
00:16:43.820 All right?
00:16:44.420 Now, if you disagree with what I just said, probably you're having some kind of confirmation
00:16:48.860 bias problem.
00:16:51.100 Right?
00:16:52.760 And some of you said, but wait, Scott.
00:16:55.440 Ten years for a booster, that's way different than six months.
00:17:00.700 Yeah, that's way different.
00:17:02.440 Not in a way that matters.
00:17:05.400 It doesn't matter to the argument.
00:17:07.700 I mean, it matters to your life, of course.
00:17:10.360 But it doesn't matter to the argument.
00:17:11.440 The argument is, can it be called a vaccination if it doesn't completely stop the thing it's
00:17:17.180 vaccinating?
00:17:17.860 And the answer is yes.
00:17:19.620 That is the standard.
00:17:21.100 The standard is you can call it a vaccination even if it doesn't completely stop the thing
00:17:26.120 that you're trying to stop.
00:17:27.120 Does every person who gets a vaccination not get, I don't know, chicken pox?
00:17:34.420 Are there any doctors on here who can answer that?
00:17:37.080 Do you think that everybody who got the chicken pox vaccination, do you think none of them got
00:17:43.360 chicken pox?
00:17:45.180 I'll bet some did.
00:17:46.760 I'll bet they did.
00:17:47.520 So the fact that a vaccination is not 100% doesn't mean it's not a vaccination.
00:17:53.760 It just means that it's a little less than it could be.
00:17:56.900 It's a little, it's leaky, right?
00:17:59.060 It's a leaky vaccination.
00:18:00.920 Now, did they lie to us?
00:18:03.620 Here's the next question.
00:18:05.040 Did the experts lie to us?
00:18:08.600 I'd say no.
00:18:09.740 Because they probably were optimistic and might have actually thought it would be closer
00:18:17.960 to 100% than it is.
00:18:21.040 Now, do you think that they knew that you'd need a booster?
00:18:25.980 Let me ask you this.
00:18:28.320 How many trials of the vaccinations were there?
00:18:33.020 Like Moderna, how many trials did it do?
00:18:36.160 And Pfizer, how many trials did it do?
00:18:38.180 Because if they only did, I don't know, one or two, however many each of them did, how
00:18:44.660 many doses, different doses did they test?
00:18:49.460 Probably one or two, right?
00:18:52.120 And how did they know what to test?
00:18:54.200 Like, how did they know what dose to test?
00:18:57.220 They didn't.
00:18:58.420 They didn't.
00:18:59.560 They couldn't have.
00:19:00.960 Educated guess.
00:19:02.820 It was an educated guess.
00:19:04.020 So what are the odds that their educated guess hit exactly the right amount of vaccination
00:19:09.700 you need?
00:19:11.600 Very low.
00:19:13.100 Very low.
00:19:14.020 Common sense tells you that they were guessing a little bit, a little bit, and that there
00:19:19.020 might be some adjustments needed.
00:19:21.140 So if they guessed on the low side, meaning they didn't want to kill you with the vaccination
00:19:25.880 itself, so they made it low enough that, you know, maybe it gave you some side effects,
00:19:30.140 but didn't kill too many people.
00:19:32.840 Yes, I know the vaccinations have side effects.
00:19:35.520 Yes, I know that every vaccination kills people, and that more of them, apparently, with this
00:19:39.260 vaccination, perhaps, than others.
00:19:42.980 But there's no such thing as a vaccination that they can guess accurately the right amount,
00:19:49.960 test it once, and then they just got lucky.
00:19:52.940 They got the right amount.
00:19:53.740 So the fact that they have to, I'm seeing the VAERS database being shown to me about
00:20:03.360 all the alleged adverse events.
00:20:07.920 Most of you know the VAERS database should not be used, right?
00:20:12.580 Do any of you think the VAERS database gives you useful information about the adverse side
00:20:20.260 effects?
00:20:21.300 It does not.
00:20:22.480 It's not for that.
00:20:24.740 It's self-reported.
00:20:27.160 So what it is, is to raise flags, such that you would more quickly notice if there was
00:20:34.680 something to look into.
00:20:36.480 So the VAERS database tells you there's something to look into.
00:20:39.920 It doesn't tell you there's a problem.
00:20:41.320 It's not meant for that.
00:20:42.440 It's not designed for that.
00:20:44.760 Right?
00:20:44.880 The reason you have controlled experiments is because self-reported stuff is so wildly inaccurate
00:20:51.960 that's not useful for scientific decisions.
00:20:55.600 Yeah.
00:20:56.180 So would we all agree that the VAERS database has raised important questions which we should
00:21:01.260 really look into?
00:21:02.880 Everybody agree with that?
00:21:04.660 The VAERS database, where people self-report the side effects, it absolutely raises a flag
00:21:12.220 that we should look into.
00:21:13.680 There's nobody who disagrees with that, right?
00:21:16.980 But do you also also agree that it's not intended to give you the answer?
00:21:22.500 It's just supposed to raise a flag so you look into it.
00:21:25.880 We're all on the same page on the VAERS database.
00:21:28.940 And if you weren't, you are now.
00:21:31.080 Because if you thought that it was telling you something, it isn't.
00:21:33.740 It's just raising a question, basically.
00:21:35.960 All right.
00:21:40.800 Isn't it kind of too late?
00:21:42.420 Well, that's an important question, too.
00:21:46.120 So here are some cognitive dissonance that got triggered when I started asking these questions
00:21:51.560 on Twitter today.
00:21:52.520 And I'll tell you how to recognize cognitive dissonance in case it happened to you.
00:21:57.780 Here are some of the comments from people who are almost certainly experiencing cognitive
00:22:03.780 dissonance.
00:22:04.680 You ready?
00:22:04.960 A tweet that just says, I had a bad take.
00:22:11.120 It's a bad take.
00:22:12.140 No other reason.
00:22:12.820 It's just a bad take.
00:22:13.960 When you see an attack on the person without any reference to the reason, that's almost
00:22:20.360 always cognitive dissonance.
00:22:22.100 Because people will include a reason if they have one.
00:22:26.660 And if they don't have one, it's cognitive dissonance.
00:22:29.360 So why would you say I had a bad take instead of saying, for example, you're underestimating
00:22:37.300 something, something?
00:22:42.280 Hey, Norwood?
00:22:44.320 Norwood says I have two states and they're both boring.
00:22:47.000 And yet, he's decided to stay here.
00:22:50.000 So we're going to hide you from the channel because you're an asshole.
00:22:52.400 Also, very dumb because you do things that you don't like repeatedly.
00:22:58.560 Like listening to me.
00:23:00.380 Very dumb.
00:23:01.260 If you don't like it, probably stop doing it.
00:23:04.680 Probably.
00:23:04.900 All right.
00:23:08.180 Another comment I got today.
00:23:10.740 Somebody said, you should have thought this through before sending.
00:23:13.960 In other words, before tweeting.
00:23:16.520 Do you think that this person couldn't have put any reference to what was wrong with my
00:23:21.160 thinking in a tweet?
00:23:22.320 Wouldn't fit?
00:23:23.080 Not enough words?
00:23:25.200 No, easily you could put what's wrong with it.
00:23:27.920 You underestimated this.
00:23:30.160 You have a wrong fact.
00:23:31.580 Your logic connecting this to this doesn't work.
00:23:35.940 Lots of things you could have said.
00:23:38.980 Another one I got today was, that's not how it works.
00:23:42.960 And then a reference to my Dilbert cartoon career.
00:23:46.280 That's not how it works.
00:23:48.520 Or, that's not how any of this works.
00:23:52.100 The Dow is down 600.
00:23:53.920 Jeez.
00:23:54.300 So, these are the arguments that are pretty much tip-offs for cognitive distance.
00:24:06.560 Here's an economist's tip.
00:24:09.320 How to compare things.
00:24:10.600 One of the things that economists learn is how to accurately compare the right stuff.
00:24:14.580 If you're comparing the wrong things, you're always going to get the wrong decision.
00:24:19.420 Right?
00:24:19.580 You have to compare the right things.
00:24:21.560 That's just basic.
00:24:22.300 Here's what people are doing wrong in their comparisons.
00:24:27.820 If you're comparing the COVID vaccination to your original belief of how good it would be,
00:24:36.220 you haven't done anything good or useful.
00:24:40.160 Right?
00:24:40.300 And most of you are doing that, right?
00:24:41.780 A lot of the anti-vax people, the vaccination skeptics, are saying,
00:24:47.080 Scott, Scott, Scott.
00:24:47.960 But, if you compare what they led us to believe about the effectiveness of the vaccination and its safety,
00:24:55.500 if you compare that to what we got, whoa, we didn't get what they promised,
00:25:01.820 so therefore it's all a scam and a shill and it'll kill you.
00:25:07.080 Does that make sense?
00:25:09.060 No.
00:25:09.500 No.
00:25:09.980 That's the wrong comparison.
00:25:12.460 Because the thing that you imagined it would be never existed.
00:25:18.140 You get that?
00:25:19.600 The thing you imagined it would be, 100% effective or whatever you imagine, that never existed.
00:25:25.580 That was in your mind.
00:25:27.200 It wasn't in the real world.
00:25:28.280 In the real world, here's the comparison that makes sense.
00:25:33.220 Getting vaccinated versus not getting vaccinated.
00:25:38.080 That's the comparison that matters.
00:25:39.940 Because your decision is vaccinate or not vaccinate.
00:25:42.620 That's all that matters.
00:25:44.080 Vaccinate or not vaccinate.
00:25:45.760 If you're still comparing how you felt about it in the beginning to how it turned out,
00:25:51.980 a little less than you hoped, closer to 80% to 90% effectiveness against hospitalization and death,
00:25:59.780 maybe 80% effective in keeping you from getting it in the first place,
00:26:03.660 but not 100% and not 99%.
00:26:06.620 We hope for that.
00:26:08.280 So don't compare it to your expectations.
00:26:11.260 That's nothing.
00:26:12.840 That's nothing.
00:26:14.000 I saw people doing that today and it's just purely irrational.
00:26:17.460 Your expectations are always disappointing.
00:26:21.980 Compared to reality.
00:26:28.640 So there was a troll this morning who learned that the fine people hoax was a hoax for the first time.
00:26:35.420 And that was kind of fun, watching somebody fall into that trap.
00:26:41.780 And here's how you know that you've triggered somebody into cognitive dissonance.
00:26:45.300 Now, for anybody who's new to me, live streaming, I'm a trained hypnotist.
00:26:53.060 And so I know how to trigger people into cognitive dissonance.
00:26:56.800 I can do it intentionally.
00:26:58.440 And I can do it almost at will.
00:27:00.940 Most of you do it too, but less directly and less intentionally.
00:27:06.040 Anybody can trigger somebody into cognitive dissonance.
00:27:08.460 But when a Twitter user named WhoRadiation found out today that the fine people thing was a hoax,
00:27:18.780 here's one of the tells.
00:27:20.460 Word salad.
00:27:22.200 Word salad.
00:27:23.440 So they will say something when they're experiencing cognitive dissonance,
00:27:27.340 but they're the only person who thinks it makes sense.
00:27:30.800 Everybody else reading it would say,
00:27:33.040 All right, here's another example of a cognitive dissonance right here from El Diablo Locopoco.
00:27:40.760 So here's the classic one.
00:27:42.720 Scott, Scott, Scott.
00:27:43.800 It sounds like you are suffering cognitive dissonance
00:27:47.000 and are rationalizing your decision to be vaccinated.
00:27:50.700 Now, what's wrong with that comment, and why do I say that is cognitive dissonance?
00:27:56.960 I'll read it again and see if you can feel the sound with me.
00:28:01.620 Scott, Scott, Scott.
00:28:03.200 It sounds like you are suffering cognitive dissonance
00:28:05.700 and are rationalizing your decision to be vaccinated.
00:28:10.540 Did I not just tell you that I could be totally wrong about getting vaccinated?
00:28:16.100 Why do I need to rationalize it?
00:28:18.680 I told you what I looked at.
00:28:20.700 I told you what the odds were.
00:28:22.520 If the facts were wrong that I used, I'll say,
00:28:25.080 Whoa, damn, those facts were wrong.
00:28:27.000 So I got the wrong decision.
00:28:29.780 What would be my trigger for cognitive dissonance?
00:28:32.320 You have to look for the trigger.
00:28:34.320 I don't have a trigger.
00:28:36.300 There's nothing that can cause me to have cognitive dissonance
00:28:39.440 because I'm not committed to a side.
00:28:42.180 You have to be committed to an opinion before you can be triggered.
00:28:45.480 I'm as non-committed as you could possibly be.
00:28:48.140 Now, I'm also allowing that I could have made the right decision
00:28:53.620 and had the wrong outcome.
00:28:56.400 Will you allow me that?
00:28:58.200 Let's say I looked at the odds, and the odds were, hypothetically,
00:29:02.740 you don't have to agree with this,
00:29:04.300 but let's say I looked at the odds and I thought the odds were
00:29:06.520 that I should get vaccinated.
00:29:09.420 And then maybe I'm one of the people who has a bad outcome
00:29:11.920 from the vaccination itself.
00:29:13.240 Did I make a wrong decision?
00:29:16.180 I'd say no.
00:29:17.480 Because if you make a decision based on the odds,
00:29:20.000 it's the right decision.
00:29:21.440 It's just a bad outcome.
00:29:23.600 Now, given that I make that distinction,
00:29:26.580 that I can make a good decision
00:29:28.180 and still have perfectly reasonable to have a bad outcome,
00:29:31.880 I don't have anything that can trigger me into cognitive dissonance.
00:29:35.620 Because everything that can happen is within my model.
00:29:39.500 Right?
00:29:40.300 That's the best way to say it.
00:29:41.280 Everything that's possible fits within my model of the world.
00:29:46.340 Because my model of the world says,
00:29:48.060 well, I followed the odds as best I understood them.
00:29:51.320 Data was probably wrong.
00:29:53.320 Maybe even some of my thinking was wrong.
00:29:56.580 But, you know, I had to make a decision.
00:29:58.460 So if it turns out I'm completely wrong about everything,
00:30:01.300 it's still in my model.
00:30:02.980 It's still consistent with everything I've said.
00:30:04.860 Oh, I could be wrong on those facts.
00:30:06.680 I could have made the wrong decision.
00:30:08.020 But if your model says that what you did is the only thing that's possible,
00:30:13.600 as soon as something outside of your model happens,
00:30:17.060 you're triggered into cognitive dissonance.
00:30:19.600 So you've got to make sure that your model of reality
00:30:22.520 incorporates all the possibilities.
00:30:25.620 That's the only way you can keep yourself at a cognitive dissonance.
00:30:30.660 Did you get that?
00:30:31.160 So now, how many of you are asking yourself,
00:30:34.380 hey, I think I trapped myself.
00:30:38.300 I created a trap for myself.
00:30:40.360 By creating a world view that doesn't allow the other one in.
00:30:45.500 Did you do that?
00:30:46.920 Did you create a world view that just doesn't let the other one in?
00:30:51.820 Because if you did, you're setting yourself up.
00:30:55.760 You're setting yourself up.
00:30:57.360 Are comments off?
00:30:58.380 No, comments are on.
00:30:59.180 Well, comments are on.
00:31:01.940 I am reading them.
00:31:03.640 I don't comment on all the comments, but I am reading them.
00:31:10.400 Somebody says,
00:31:11.100 find the clip of Norm MacDonald saying how he wants his funeral to be.
00:31:15.000 You know, I actually had some instructions in my estate
00:31:18.040 and my will at one point for having a funny funeral,
00:31:21.980 but I took those out.
00:31:22.720 Would you make the same decision today?
00:31:26.040 Yeah, I would.
00:31:26.560 Because I don't think the data changed enough.
00:31:32.640 And remember, I'm in a higher risk category.
00:31:35.460 So any decision I make about vaccinations doesn't apply to any of you.
00:31:39.260 You get that, right?
00:31:40.800 Do you get that my decision about vaccination should not apply to any of you?
00:31:46.180 Like, you shouldn't be influenced by it at all.
00:31:48.020 Because my, you know, I'm in a high risk category.
00:31:50.260 Right?
00:31:52.240 And my high risk is different than your high risk.
00:31:54.820 It's different than everybody else's.
00:31:56.340 So you definitely should not be influenced by my decision.
00:31:59.520 That would be irrational.
00:32:00.960 You don't have the same variables.
00:32:06.520 Here's a comment from Mr. Janice Esquire.
00:32:14.260 A lawyer, I assume.
00:32:17.560 First name Hugh.
00:32:20.720 Last name Janice.
00:32:23.040 He's a lawyer.
00:32:25.800 How does that sound if you say his first name and his last name together?
00:32:29.780 First name Hugh.
00:32:31.800 Last name Janice.
00:32:34.700 Hugh Janice.
00:32:37.220 Hugh Janice Esquire.
00:32:39.520 So Hugh Janice says to me, he goes,
00:32:45.380 that Scott is having another one of his vax spells
00:32:48.060 where he thinks if people don't vax, they will die.
00:32:53.320 Does that sound like me?
00:32:55.100 Does this sound like something that happens to me on a regular basis?
00:32:59.040 That if I get into this vax spell
00:33:01.940 where I think that if people don't vax, they will die?
00:33:05.820 Nope.
00:33:06.260 I think you're all going to die.
00:33:09.520 Me too.
00:33:10.700 I think you'll die if you get vaxed.
00:33:12.880 I think you'll die if you don't get vaxed.
00:33:15.700 I think you're all going to die.
00:33:18.080 And do I care if you die soon?
00:33:20.240 Nope.
00:33:20.960 As long as you're happy.
00:33:22.160 As long as you lived the life you wanted to live.
00:33:24.880 I'm good with that.
00:33:26.240 So a complete hallucination of my opinion
00:33:28.760 by Hugh Janice Esquire.
00:33:31.580 And he says that I'm a vax shill.
00:33:38.040 Do you know any vax shills
00:33:39.960 who advise you to do whatever you want and die?
00:33:43.620 I would be the worst vax shill in the world
00:33:48.180 if I told you, I don't care if you get it.
00:33:50.900 You can die.
00:33:52.840 Any way you want.
00:33:54.460 Any way you want.
00:33:56.040 As long as you allow me the same.
00:33:58.520 Let's talk about Hunter Pepper,
00:34:00.860 the 19-year-old council member
00:34:02.380 who vowed to, quote,
00:34:04.540 fight to the end against a mask mandate
00:34:06.840 in Decatur, Decatur.
00:34:08.860 I guess Decatur, Alabama,
00:34:10.980 revealed he's been hospitalized
00:34:12.480 with shallow breathing.
00:34:14.680 And, of course, the photo of Hunter Pepper.
00:34:17.640 And we do not do fat shaming.
00:34:19.760 No fat shaming on this channel.
00:34:22.440 And we don't do addiction
00:34:23.700 or alcoholic shaming either.
00:34:26.060 They're all in the same category, in my opinion.
00:34:29.120 Which is, we think we have free will,
00:34:31.120 but addiction is kind of a different thing.
00:34:34.140 And I do think people can be addicted to food
00:34:36.320 and addicted to all kinds of stuff.
00:34:37.820 So I don't make fun of people who have addictions
00:34:40.180 because I don't believe in free will
00:34:42.160 the way other people conceive of it.
00:34:44.760 And I would appreciate it
00:34:45.740 if you did not make fun of people
00:34:47.960 who are overweight just for being overweight.
00:34:50.800 Because they just have an addiction
00:34:52.960 you don't have.
00:34:54.600 If you're lucky.
00:34:58.560 But how in the hell...
00:35:00.340 I mean, I just have to say this
00:35:01.560 every time they do that.
00:35:02.340 How in the hell do you not mention his weight?
00:35:04.980 You know, he's clearly quite overweight.
00:35:07.820 And every time they show this picture
00:35:10.660 I feel like it's doing the opposite
00:35:12.420 of what they want.
00:35:13.680 I feel like they're doing these...
00:35:15.380 I feel like they're doing these...
00:35:20.180 these anecdotal stories
00:35:23.120 about the person
00:35:24.140 who thought the vaccination was bad
00:35:28.100 and then got hospitalized.
00:35:29.260 but it's all a story of overweight people.
00:35:33.000 They're all overweight stories.
00:35:35.700 And if we don't treat them that way
00:35:37.060 I don't know how we get through this
00:35:41.320 any smarter.
00:35:42.660 Like if we're trying to get through this
00:35:44.240 alive and smarter
00:35:45.540 we're not doing the right thing for that.
00:35:47.440 So
00:35:49.220 I got a tweet from
00:35:52.880 D.O. Genius.
00:35:56.680 So this is somebody who puts
00:35:58.020 the word genius
00:35:59.160 right in their Twitter handle.
00:36:02.220 May I make a recommendation?
00:36:07.280 Brief recommendation.
00:36:08.780 If you're going to brand yourself
00:36:10.860 with the word genius
00:36:12.100 it does
00:36:14.360 sort of give you
00:36:16.100 the responsibility
00:36:17.020 to
00:36:17.520 up your game a little bit.
00:36:19.940 You know?
00:36:20.420 To act a little genius-y.
00:36:23.100 Because people are going to be watching
00:36:24.580 if you call yourself a genius.
00:36:27.240 So let me explain
00:36:28.340 what this genius
00:36:29.120 tweeted today.
00:36:30.880 He said to me
00:36:31.780 if learning that
00:36:32.540 80% of people
00:36:33.640 dying from COVID
00:36:34.640 in the UK
00:36:35.320 are fully vaccinated
00:36:36.600 according to the
00:36:37.860 public health
00:36:38.500 blah blah blah
00:36:39.020 makes you conclude
00:36:40.780 that vaccinations
00:36:41.580 work
00:36:42.980 how does
00:36:45.120 confirmation bias
00:36:46.260 make you feel, Scott?
00:36:48.320 So here he's calling me out
00:36:49.940 for my own
00:36:50.420 confirmation bias
00:36:51.320 by saying that
00:36:52.860 80% of people
00:36:54.040 dying in Great Britain
00:36:55.240 or UK
00:36:56.160 are fully vaccinated.
00:37:00.060 So how does that work, Scott?
00:37:02.760 How does that work?
00:37:04.360 Well, let me ask you
00:37:05.540 some questions
00:37:06.360 in response.
00:37:08.880 D.O. Genius.
00:37:10.780 I'll answer your question
00:37:12.880 after you answer
00:37:13.760 a couple of mine.
00:37:15.860 Number one.
00:37:17.500 Why do bank robbers
00:37:19.240 rob banks?
00:37:22.740 Huh?
00:37:23.320 Huh?
00:37:23.820 Why don't they rob,
00:37:25.260 let's say,
00:37:25.900 trash dumps?
00:37:28.420 Why?
00:37:29.280 Why do they go
00:37:30.400 to banks?
00:37:32.000 Could it be?
00:37:33.760 That's where the money is.
00:37:35.660 Yeah, that's where
00:37:36.220 the money is.
00:37:37.900 Willie Sutton
00:37:38.600 allegedly said that
00:37:39.660 but probably didn't.
00:37:41.620 Yes.
00:37:42.580 Here's another one.
00:37:46.680 Were you aware
00:37:48.120 that
00:37:49.820 almost 98%
00:37:53.060 of all the people
00:37:54.420 who die in China
00:37:55.380 are Chinese?
00:37:57.580 Did you know that?
00:37:59.220 Why?
00:38:00.120 Why is it
00:38:01.040 that almost everybody
00:38:02.260 who dies in China
00:38:03.320 is Chinese?
00:38:04.200 Like, what causes that?
00:38:07.880 Is it some kind
00:38:08.960 of weird disease?
00:38:10.940 I'm all confused.
00:38:12.920 And so would
00:38:13.860 D.O. Genius
00:38:14.840 be confused.
00:38:17.100 Now, let's take
00:38:18.020 the UK
00:38:20.880 where most people
00:38:22.360 are vaccinated.
00:38:23.900 Let's see.
00:38:24.920 In a world
00:38:25.520 where most people
00:38:26.620 are vaccinated,
00:38:27.520 what kind
00:38:31.220 of people
00:38:31.540 would be dying?
00:38:34.360 Could it be
00:38:35.120 the people
00:38:35.660 who are vaccinated?
00:38:36.520 Because that's
00:38:37.140 almost all there is.
00:38:38.880 If
00:38:39.240 all you have
00:38:41.140 is people
00:38:41.540 who are vaccinated,
00:38:43.160 who the hell
00:38:43.720 else is going
00:38:44.260 to be dying?
00:38:46.320 Right?
00:38:46.480 Right?
00:38:46.540 My expectations
00:38:54.760 were there
00:38:55.320 were 0% chance
00:38:56.380 it would be
00:38:56.880 completely safe.
00:38:58.120 Yeah, well,
00:38:59.020 0% chance
00:39:00.000 it's completely safe.
00:39:04.240 So here's the thing.
00:39:05.960 If your country
00:39:07.140 is entirely vaccinated,
00:39:08.860 then only vaccinated
00:39:10.100 people will die
00:39:10.840 of COVID.
00:39:11.620 Because we do know
00:39:12.340 that people get it
00:39:13.140 and they die
00:39:13.680 even if they're vaccinated.
00:39:14.660 So don't call
00:39:16.860 yourself genius
00:39:17.680 if you don't
00:39:19.380 understand why
00:39:20.180 most of the people
00:39:20.920 in China
00:39:21.540 who die
00:39:22.460 are Chinese.
00:39:23.820 They're Chinese.
00:39:25.120 Because that's
00:39:25.740 who lives there.
00:39:29.520 Let me take it
00:39:30.660 to the next extreme
00:39:31.500 in case Mr. Genius
00:39:33.380 wasn't following that.
00:39:35.100 I'll make it
00:39:35.660 a little simple.
00:39:36.820 If 100%
00:39:37.880 of the people
00:39:38.400 in a country,
00:39:39.180 whatever country
00:39:39.900 it is,
00:39:40.800 are vaccinated,
00:39:41.980 100% are vaccinated,
00:39:43.320 what percentage
00:39:46.400 of the people
00:39:46.840 who die
00:39:47.260 in that country
00:39:47.880 would be vaccinated?
00:39:52.520 Work on that
00:39:53.340 and get back to me.
00:39:54.640 If 100%
00:39:55.540 are vaccinated,
00:39:56.580 what percentage
00:39:57.580 of the people
00:39:58.020 dying in that country
00:39:58.860 would also be vaccinated?
00:40:01.020 I know it's a tough one,
00:40:02.420 but see if you can
00:40:03.060 get that right.
00:40:05.200 All right.
00:40:05.560 That is my lesson
00:40:12.480 on cognitive dissonance
00:40:14.040 and confirmation bias.
00:40:16.340 Now,
00:40:17.620 I think I touched
00:40:20.300 all my incredibly
00:40:21.440 important points.
00:40:22.740 Yes, I did.
00:40:24.020 Yes, I did.
00:40:25.660 So,
00:40:27.660 let me look
00:40:30.140 at your comments.
00:40:31.460 Scott,
00:40:31.800 if you get COVID,
00:40:32.740 will you get Regeneron?
00:40:34.320 Yes, I will.
00:40:35.000 And do you know
00:40:37.100 why I'll get Regeneron?
00:40:38.940 Will it be
00:40:39.840 because Regeneron
00:40:41.000 was tested
00:40:43.360 in long-term trials?
00:40:46.800 Did anybody
00:40:48.160 do a long-term
00:40:49.360 test of Regeneron
00:40:50.760 as a treatment
00:40:52.280 for COVID?
00:40:53.820 What?
00:40:54.920 What?
00:40:55.360 There's no 10-year
00:40:56.160 study of Regeneron
00:40:57.500 for COVID patients?
00:40:59.420 Why would you
00:41:00.300 put that in your body?
00:41:02.140 It seems a little
00:41:02.960 experimental to me,
00:41:04.360 doesn't it?
00:41:05.440 So,
00:41:05.940 you would put
00:41:06.320 Regeneron
00:41:06.940 in your body
00:41:07.600 just because
00:41:08.540 all the experts
00:41:09.220 say it works,
00:41:10.840 even knowing
00:41:11.580 there are no
00:41:13.660 long-term
00:41:14.620 10-year trials
00:41:15.860 of Regeneron
00:41:16.720 for COVID.
00:41:18.740 You would put
00:41:19.220 that in your body?
00:41:20.640 I would.
00:41:22.220 Yeah,
00:41:22.580 I probably would.
00:41:24.440 But,
00:41:25.000 all of your options
00:41:27.360 are untested stuff.
00:41:29.200 Does everybody
00:41:29.760 get that?
00:41:30.220 every one of your
00:41:31.880 options
00:41:32.280 is untested
00:41:34.100 for the long-term.
00:41:36.200 For the short-term,
00:41:37.280 you actually know
00:41:37.960 your vaccination
00:41:38.900 risk pretty well
00:41:40.040 because we have
00:41:41.840 millions and millions
00:41:43.060 of short-term
00:41:43.960 experiences.
00:41:45.440 It's the long-term
00:41:46.440 you're worried about,
00:41:47.200 right?
00:41:47.780 You're worried about
00:41:48.640 being infertile
00:41:52.160 or whatever.
00:41:52.600 Yeah,
00:41:56.460 same thing
00:41:56.980 with ivermectin,
00:41:58.160 same thing.
00:41:58.820 Now,
00:41:59.020 we do know
00:41:59.420 that a lot
00:41:59.720 of these
00:42:00.040 have been
00:42:00.640 safe
00:42:02.100 for other
00:42:04.720 conditions
00:42:05.320 for years.
00:42:06.880 But,
00:42:07.420 who exactly
00:42:07.940 was tracking
00:42:08.720 the long-term
00:42:10.180 effects of
00:42:10.880 ivermectin?
00:42:11.520 Is that a study?
00:42:14.540 Did somebody
00:42:15.000 ever do
00:42:15.340 a 10-year
00:42:15.900 study of
00:42:16.460 ivermectin
00:42:17.080 for the
00:42:18.900 other problems,
00:42:19.640 not for COVID?
00:42:21.640 I doubt it,
00:42:22.900 right?
00:42:23.820 Do you think
00:42:24.280 somebody did
00:42:24.760 a 10-year
00:42:25.340 study
00:42:25.720 to follow up
00:42:27.400 and see
00:42:27.680 if ivermectin
00:42:28.380 was hurting
00:42:28.920 anybody
00:42:29.360 10 years
00:42:30.560 later?
00:42:31.340 No,
00:42:32.300 no.
00:42:32.900 Didn't do it
00:42:33.380 for the
00:42:33.620 vaccinations.
00:42:34.920 Didn't do it
00:42:35.460 for anything
00:42:35.780 you're going
00:42:36.100 to put
00:42:36.280 in your
00:42:36.480 body.
00:42:39.540 Somebody says
00:42:40.240 maybe.
00:42:40.600 I don't think
00:42:40.940 so.
00:42:42.380 Merck is
00:42:42.820 coming out
00:42:43.320 with
00:42:44.000 therapeutic
00:42:45.040 to replace
00:42:46.940 ivermectin.
00:42:48.180 I'll bet.
00:42:50.940 We know
00:42:51.680 ivermectin
00:42:52.300 is not
00:42:52.700 100%
00:42:53.280 fatal
00:42:53.620 after 10
00:42:54.280 years.
00:42:54.540 Well,
00:42:54.840 we know
00:42:55.060 it's not
00:42:55.340 100%
00:42:55.800 fatal.
00:42:56.060 Yeah.
00:42:59.520 Yes,
00:43:00.100 ivermectin
00:43:00.640 has been
00:43:00.940 used for
00:43:01.420 10-plus
00:43:01.960 years in
00:43:02.360 other
00:43:02.560 countries.
00:43:03.040 Why does
00:43:03.400 that matter?
00:43:04.720 They weren't
00:43:05.180 studying it,
00:43:06.540 were they?
00:43:08.400 I don't think
00:43:09.620 any country
00:43:10.160 studied
00:43:10.720 how do
00:43:12.220 all the
00:43:12.560 people look
00:43:13.040 10 years
00:43:13.520 after taking
00:43:14.120 ivermectin?
00:43:15.980 Now,
00:43:16.580 what do you
00:43:17.100 think is
00:43:17.560 the period
00:43:18.200 beyond which
00:43:19.020 a vaccination
00:43:19.600 is almost
00:43:21.460 certainly telling
00:43:22.260 you everything
00:43:22.740 that you need
00:43:23.260 to know
00:43:23.560 about side
00:43:24.060 effects?
00:43:24.400 how long
00:43:25.820 do you think
00:43:26.140 that period
00:43:26.540 is?
00:43:27.540 In the
00:43:28.120 comments,
00:43:28.700 let's see
00:43:29.080 how well
00:43:30.300 informed you
00:43:31.100 are.
00:43:31.840 How many
00:43:32.360 days,
00:43:33.100 weeks,
00:43:33.480 months,
00:43:33.740 or years
00:43:34.220 after taking
00:43:35.840 a vaccination?
00:43:37.060 We'll say
00:43:37.420 vaccinations
00:43:38.000 in general.
00:43:39.980 How long
00:43:40.720 do you
00:43:40.960 wait before
00:43:41.780 you really,
00:43:42.640 really know
00:43:43.080 you've got
00:43:43.500 just about
00:43:44.100 all the
00:43:44.400 side effects?
00:43:46.660 Somebody
00:43:47.100 says two
00:43:47.560 weeks.
00:43:49.320 I'm looking
00:43:49.760 at all
00:43:50.100 your,
00:43:51.340 I see
00:43:51.860 one month,
00:43:53.180 one month,
00:43:53.920 20 years,
00:43:55.740 36 months,
00:43:56.760 15 minutes,
00:43:58.460 48 hours.
00:44:00.760 Why don't
00:44:01.560 you all know
00:44:02.100 the answer
00:44:02.500 to this?
00:44:05.460 This is
00:44:06.160 one of
00:44:06.440 those,
00:44:06.960 oh my
00:44:09.180 God,
00:44:09.740 this is
00:44:10.120 one of
00:44:10.360 those facts
00:44:10.940 that should
00:44:11.420 be the
00:44:12.620 most important
00:44:13.400 fact in
00:44:14.080 your decision
00:44:14.620 about getting
00:44:15.080 vaccinated.
00:44:16.360 If I had
00:44:17.120 to say
00:44:17.360 there was
00:44:17.640 one fact
00:44:18.580 that you
00:44:19.780 should know
00:44:20.400 to make
00:44:21.520 a decision
00:44:22.020 about
00:44:22.320 vaccination,
00:44:23.220 it would
00:44:23.860 be this
00:44:24.380 and none
00:44:24.720 of you
00:44:24.940 know it.
00:44:26.200 None of
00:44:26.620 you know it.
00:44:27.720 Not one
00:44:28.160 of you is
00:44:28.540 right.
00:44:30.420 None?
00:44:33.600 I'm
00:44:34.060 watching all
00:44:34.500 your answers.
00:44:35.020 I'm seeing
00:44:35.260 two years,
00:44:36.140 a lifetime,
00:44:37.080 15 minutes.
00:44:38.860 None of
00:44:39.260 you are even
00:44:39.680 close.
00:44:40.840 It's the
00:44:41.220 number one
00:44:41.640 most important
00:44:42.180 variable.
00:44:43.540 The number
00:44:44.320 one most
00:44:45.000 important variable
00:44:45.800 in your
00:44:46.400 personal decision
00:44:47.380 about whether
00:44:48.020 to get a
00:44:48.400 vaccination.
00:44:50.240 And not
00:44:50.660 a fucking
00:44:51.240 one of you
00:44:51.740 knows the
00:44:52.200 answer to
00:44:52.620 it.
00:44:53.660 This is
00:44:54.080 public
00:44:54.360 information.
00:44:55.900 I've seen
00:44:56.520 it a number
00:44:57.000 of times.
00:44:58.480 The answer
00:44:59.140 is two
00:44:59.460 months.
00:45:01.100 Two months.
00:45:03.300 After two
00:45:04.060 months,
00:45:05.140 the odds
00:45:05.780 of anything
00:45:06.320 bad happening
00:45:07.140 to you in
00:45:07.520 the long
00:45:07.860 term become
00:45:08.980 really small.
00:45:10.260 They don't
00:45:10.660 disappear,
00:45:11.980 but really
00:45:12.540 small.
00:45:13.480 And that
00:45:13.880 first 15
00:45:14.600 minutes tells
00:45:15.220 you a whole
00:45:15.600 lot, right?
00:45:16.540 That's why
00:45:16.860 they make
00:45:17.220 you wait.
00:45:18.020 But two
00:45:19.360 months,
00:45:20.400 typically for
00:45:22.000 all other
00:45:22.580 vaccinations,
00:45:23.360 that's where
00:45:23.660 problems appear.
00:45:26.660 Now,
00:45:27.820 I'm seeing
00:45:28.820 Robert laughing.
00:45:30.220 Now, I'm
00:45:30.620 not saying
00:45:31.040 that everything
00:45:33.320 has to fit
00:45:34.020 into that
00:45:34.460 model.
00:45:35.220 I'm saying
00:45:35.740 that if you
00:45:36.260 didn't know
00:45:36.840 that and you
00:45:37.720 made your
00:45:38.080 decision on
00:45:38.660 vaccinations,
00:45:39.460 that was a
00:45:39.800 very irrational
00:45:40.500 decision.
00:45:41.680 If you are
00:45:42.440 not aware
00:45:43.180 that two
00:45:44.720 months gets
00:45:45.400 you pretty
00:45:46.480 much everything
00:45:47.100 you need
00:45:47.500 to know
00:45:47.900 about side
00:45:48.820 effects,
00:45:49.480 not all
00:45:50.140 of it,
00:45:50.620 not 100%,
00:45:51.600 but close.
00:45:55.600 Oh, somebody
00:45:56.060 said two
00:45:56.460 months there.
00:45:57.000 Good for
00:45:57.280 you.
00:45:59.240 All right,
00:46:00.080 so I'm
00:46:01.960 kind of
00:46:02.220 blown away
00:46:02.660 by this.
00:46:03.400 I really
00:46:03.740 am.
00:46:04.100 I'm kind
00:46:04.680 of blown
00:46:05.000 away that
00:46:05.980 the most
00:46:06.480 important
00:46:06.920 variable,
00:46:07.540 nobody
00:46:07.800 knows,
00:46:08.360 it was
00:46:08.640 like one
00:46:09.060 person who
00:46:09.520 knew,
00:46:10.400 and that's
00:46:10.740 it.
00:46:10.900 I would
00:46:14.180 say that
00:46:14.540 was the
00:46:14.860 thing that
00:46:15.160 made my
00:46:15.520 decision.
00:46:17.140 I would
00:46:17.640 say I
00:46:18.000 based my
00:46:18.620 decision on
00:46:19.320 the thing
00:46:19.640 that almost
00:46:20.120 nobody knew
00:46:20.820 here, but
00:46:21.480 was public
00:46:21.980 information,
00:46:23.160 that after
00:46:23.620 two months
00:46:24.100 you know.
00:46:25.160 Remember I
00:46:25.740 told you in
00:46:26.120 the beginning,
00:46:26.700 people ask me
00:46:27.320 from day one,
00:46:28.120 am I going to
00:46:28.480 get the
00:46:28.780 vaccination?
00:46:29.900 Do you
00:46:30.100 remember what
00:46:30.460 I said?
00:46:31.860 Yes, but
00:46:32.520 not in the
00:46:32.840 first two
00:46:33.260 months.
00:46:35.140 Right?
00:46:36.420 And I
00:46:36.760 waited six
00:46:38.780 months?
00:46:39.500 I think I
00:46:39.920 waited six
00:46:40.420 months.
00:46:41.560 Or five
00:46:42.480 or something.
00:46:43.280 Before getting
00:46:43.860 vaccinated.
00:46:44.780 What was my
00:46:45.460 risk after
00:46:47.000 waiting five
00:46:47.800 months for
00:46:48.440 other people's
00:46:49.160 experience to
00:46:49.920 tell me if
00:46:50.360 it was
00:46:50.520 dangerous or
00:46:51.000 not?
00:46:51.620 Pretty low.
00:46:53.420 Pretty low.
00:46:54.580 I mean, I
00:46:54.900 don't know how
00:46:55.220 to calculate
00:46:55.700 it.
00:46:55.980 There's no
00:46:56.260 way to do
00:46:56.620 that.
00:46:57.240 But low.
00:46:58.780 Now, that's
00:46:59.580 low based on
00:47:00.420 living life and
00:47:03.020 seeing that
00:47:03.580 usually it's
00:47:04.580 two months or
00:47:05.180 so, tells you
00:47:05.820 everything you
00:47:06.260 need to know.
00:47:06.880 It doesn't
00:47:07.220 mean it's
00:47:07.520 true with
00:47:07.880 ease.
00:47:08.720 I mean,
00:47:09.360 mRNA stuff might
00:47:10.460 be different.
00:47:12.080 But, oh,
00:47:15.420 and the
00:47:15.620 fact that
00:47:16.000 I'm fit and
00:47:17.760 healthy, but
00:47:18.280 I'm also
00:47:18.720 64 and I
00:47:19.760 have asthma.
00:47:20.900 So I'm on
00:47:21.560 the short
00:47:21.960 list of
00:47:22.400 people who
00:47:23.040 die from
00:47:24.180 COVID.
00:47:25.840 Right?
00:47:26.200 If you have
00:47:26.520 asthma, you're
00:47:27.180 in bad shape.
00:47:28.460 I'm pretty sure
00:47:29.160 the people who
00:47:29.680 died from it
00:47:30.300 had asthma and
00:47:31.160 were fat, if
00:47:32.380 we're being
00:47:32.700 honest.
00:47:34.100 Probably.
00:47:34.540 So, yeah.
00:47:41.760 Thalidomide.
00:47:44.300 Thalidomide would
00:47:44.980 be the
00:47:45.580 counter example
00:47:46.560 of something that
00:47:47.760 took a while for
00:47:48.660 people to realize.
00:47:50.580 But, correct me
00:47:52.160 if I'm wrong, I
00:47:53.760 believe that
00:47:54.460 current medical
00:47:55.840 processes, I
00:47:56.700 need a fact
00:47:57.160 check on this.
00:47:58.680 This is an
00:47:59.300 important one.
00:48:00.040 So if you could
00:48:00.960 really give me a
00:48:01.620 fact check on
00:48:02.140 this.
00:48:02.720 My understanding
00:48:03.480 would be that
00:48:04.280 we would not
00:48:04.940 make the
00:48:05.420 thalidomide mistake
00:48:07.100 today.
00:48:08.340 That we have
00:48:09.140 safeguards that
00:48:10.000 would have caught
00:48:10.500 that early.
00:48:11.700 In other words,
00:48:12.200 we wouldn't have
00:48:12.740 had to wait to
00:48:14.160 find out it was
00:48:14.740 bad.
00:48:15.600 Give me a
00:48:16.020 fact check on
00:48:16.560 that.
00:48:17.200 I think we
00:48:17.880 would have caught
00:48:18.840 that one.
00:48:19.780 If it happened
00:48:20.380 today, I think
00:48:21.000 we would have
00:48:21.360 caught it right
00:48:21.840 away.
00:48:23.200 But maybe not.
00:48:26.900 Yeah.
00:48:27.640 And let's say
00:48:28.520 you only had one
00:48:29.300 example in which
00:48:31.860 the vaccine did
00:48:32.940 have some bad
00:48:33.460 outcomes and
00:48:34.020 they were pretty
00:48:34.340 bad later.
00:48:39.780 Still, that
00:48:40.320 would give you
00:48:40.680 lots of
00:48:41.100 vaccinations that
00:48:41.940 didn't have that
00:48:42.560 problem.
00:48:43.540 So you'd still be
00:48:44.160 looking, well,
00:48:44.920 one did, but
00:48:45.720 20 did not.
00:48:47.060 One in 20,
00:48:47.840 5% chance.
00:48:53.440 Smoking a lot
00:48:54.100 of weed is
00:48:54.580 protecting your
00:48:55.160 lungs, you
00:48:55.560 say?
00:48:56.300 That might
00:48:56.900 actually be
00:48:57.420 true.
00:48:57.620 We don't
00:48:57.900 know.
00:48:59.460 Yeah.
00:49:01.240 And then, yeah,
00:49:02.220 I think there is
00:49:02.840 a separate
00:49:03.180 question about
00:49:03.820 pregnant women.
00:49:04.780 That's a whole
00:49:05.240 different calculation.
00:49:06.720 But, you know,
00:49:07.080 pregnant women
00:49:07.620 don't want to
00:49:08.020 have COVID
00:49:08.460 either, so.
00:49:12.240 Well, I think
00:49:12.940 locals' comments
00:49:14.040 are quite responsive,
00:49:15.080 whoever said
00:49:15.520 they're not,
00:49:16.580 because they're
00:49:17.340 in real time.
00:49:19.840 It's not a
00:49:20.640 vaccine.
00:49:21.800 It is a
00:49:22.400 vaccine.
00:49:23.160 Tetanus is a
00:49:23.780 vaccine, and you
00:49:24.600 need a booster
00:49:25.100 for tetanus, too.
00:49:25.940 All right.
00:49:31.820 40 booster,
00:49:33.000 what?
00:49:34.140 All right, I
00:49:34.700 got to run, and
00:49:35.500 I'll talk to you
00:49:36.260 tomorrow.
00:49:38.780 How many of
00:49:39.380 you...
00:49:41.940 I'm seeing
00:49:43.200 people suggesting
00:49:44.040 different drugs
00:49:45.700 or things that
00:49:46.420 may have had
00:49:47.180 long-term
00:49:47.840 consequences.
00:49:51.040 I'd love to
00:49:51.660 see a
00:49:52.460 summary of
00:49:53.160 that, a
00:49:54.000 summary of
00:49:54.840 any
00:49:55.820 meds or
00:49:56.380 vaccinations
00:49:56.920 that did
00:49:57.500 have long-term
00:49:58.320 consequences
00:49:59.340 in relation
00:50:00.300 to all the
00:50:00.920 meds that
00:50:01.300 have ever
00:50:01.600 been improved?
00:50:02.840 Is it
00:50:03.200 1%?
00:50:04.280 I don't
00:50:04.560 know.
00:50:05.600 5%?
00:50:06.600 I have no
00:50:06.960 idea.
00:50:08.560 All right.
00:50:11.340 I will
00:50:11.900 talk to you
00:50:12.500 tomorrow.
00:50:13.720 tomorrow.
00:50:14.720 And I
00:50:14.820 see you...