Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1517 Scott Adams： Headlines and Coffee Go Together Perfectly. Come Join Us.

00:00:00.000 Well, today, with any luck, we will feature Boo the cat, who is below my desk and licking

00:00:11.000 herself in a most disgraceful way.

00:00:14.460 Well, I appreciate all the cat pictures there coming in the comments over on the Locals

00:00:19.340 platform.

00:00:21.000 And good morning, YouTube, too.

00:00:23.760 So how would you like today to be great?

00:00:28.100 Yeah, you would like that.

00:00:29.640 I know.

00:00:31.140 Have you noticed that I talk to you as if you're answering and I can hear you?

00:00:34.840 You do?

00:00:35.780 Yeah.

00:00:36.640 I thought you'd notice that.

00:00:38.560 And you notice if I ask you a question, it doesn't even matter what you say, because my answer

00:00:42.780 is going to be the same anyway?

00:00:44.140 Right.

00:00:44.820 Exactly.

00:00:46.620 All right.

00:00:47.180 Well, let's enjoy ourselves to the maximum extent.

00:00:51.160 And all you need is a cup or mug or a glass, a tank or gel or a stein, a canteen jug or

00:00:55.320 a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:57.580 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:01:00.220 I like coffee.

00:01:01.660 Wait, you like what?

00:01:03.360 Oh, okay.

00:01:03.960 Well, that's good, too.

00:01:05.640 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:01:09.080 The dopamine here of the day.

00:01:10.820 The thing that makes everything better.

00:01:13.300 It's called the simultaneous sip.

00:01:16.260 It happens now.

00:01:17.260 Go.

00:01:23.080 Yes, I have been called the Mr. Rogers of the Internet or something.

00:01:31.340 I have been called that.

00:01:33.620 All right.

00:01:34.100 Well, let's talk about the news.

00:01:35.200 A special shout-out to Wolf Blitzer, who, despite having a first name Wolf, has never

00:01:44.900 been accused of sexual harassment, as far as we know.

00:01:48.920 I say that only because over at CNN, Don Lemon has some accusations he's dealing with, and Chris

00:01:55.500 Cuomo has some accusations he's dealing with.

00:01:57.740 And I just think it's funny that the only guy named Wolf, he's cool.

00:02:08.260 Is that his real name?

00:02:10.320 Somebody says he made up that name.

00:02:12.660 Maybe.

00:02:12.900 But, yeah, good for Wolf Blitzer for staying out of trouble for all these years.

00:02:21.040 Well, Kamala Harris gets the Charlottesville hoax treatment by CNN and some others in the

00:02:27.900 network world, and couldn't have happened to a nicer person.

00:02:32.400 And what I mean by that is, you probably saw the story in which she was talking, Harris was

00:02:37.940 talking to a classroom, and one of the students asked a question in which she referred to Israel

00:02:44.900 as being involved in, quote, ethnic genocide.

00:02:49.600 Now, Harris did not push back on that thought.

00:02:54.020 And the thinking was that the lack of pushing back kind of, like, is almost as good as applauding

00:03:00.600 it.

00:03:00.900 But what she did say, if you listen to it carefully, is she basically applauded the fact that this

00:03:10.620 young woman could have an opinion that might be different from the mainstream, and that

00:03:16.540 she could express her opinion, and that that was her truth.

00:03:20.460 What did people hear?

00:03:22.340 They heard that she was agreeing that Israel was involved in ethnic genocide, which, you

00:03:29.040 know, most people would say they're not.

00:03:32.360 So, I feel like Harris is getting the Charlottesville fine people hoax treatment.

00:03:42.260 Not that she doesn't deserve it.

00:03:43.900 I mean, she's done enough to, you know, to do her own hoaxes.

00:03:48.400 But if I'm being objective, it didn't look to me like she was agreeing with the idea.

00:03:53.720 Now, she didn't push back.

00:03:55.960 She didn't push back, and that's true.

00:03:57.940 And if you were Israel, I think you'd have something to say about that, right?

00:04:03.480 Because you want to remind people for the next time.

00:04:07.080 You know, the next time this comes up, you know what would be cool?

00:04:11.700 You just push back on that a little bit.

00:04:13.740 We wouldn't mind that at all.

00:04:15.560 But the letting it go, we don't like that.

00:04:18.300 Now, did she let it go?

00:04:19.420 Yeah.

00:04:20.020 She did let it go.

00:04:21.320 But she let it go with a specific statement in favor of freedom of speech of unpopular ideas.

00:04:27.220 I'm going to give her a pass on that.

00:04:31.540 No, I don't think that she was saying anything about Israel.

00:04:34.060 I think she was just trying to be, you know, I think trying to be flexible and maybe, you know, teach a lesson to the young people.

00:04:44.840 But I didn't hear what the news is reporting.

00:04:47.680 I listened to the whole thing twice.

00:04:49.220 I didn't hear her doing anything wrong.

00:04:53.440 And I did not hear her agreeing with the comment about ethnic genocide.

00:04:57.880 I definitely didn't hear that.

00:05:00.320 Right.

00:05:03.620 Hit the like button, you grifter.

00:05:06.240 Okay, I don't know what that's about.

00:05:07.360 Gavin Newsom has announced that California will be the first to require vaccinations for all children going to school.

00:05:19.040 He points out that our schools already have vaccines for measles, mumps, and more.

00:05:25.260 So why would this be different?

00:05:26.840 Well, isn't the reason that this is different that it hasn't been around as long?

00:05:34.560 And that's the whole problem, right?

00:05:36.940 Now, don't you say, oh, but those other vaccinations, they've been around forever, so it's safer.

00:05:42.760 But was that true when they were new?

00:05:46.260 Can somebody give me a little history lesson?

00:05:48.760 Give me a fact check on this.

00:05:50.920 Yeah, it's very different.

00:05:51.920 So the fact that it's different is meaningful, right?

00:05:55.920 You can't say this is like everything else.

00:05:57.800 It's different.

00:05:58.860 But is it different in the important way?

00:06:02.280 Is it different in the sense that were these other vaccinations,

00:06:06.720 have they been around and tested for, let's say, five years

00:06:10.760 before the first time the public was required to get them?

00:06:16.960 Maybe.

00:06:17.820 I mean, I'm not doubting it.

00:06:19.200 I just don't know the history.

00:06:20.300 They've had studies, right?

00:06:22.900 They've had studies by now.

00:06:24.920 So I understand the point that if you're talking about today,

00:06:29.820 vaccines that have been around a long time look safer than one that's new.

00:06:34.080 Everybody's on the same page with that, right?

00:06:36.440 Everybody would agree with the general statement

00:06:38.340 that any kind of medicine that's been around for a long time is safer.

00:06:42.900 You know, just in terms of unknown risks, it's safer.

00:06:46.000 It might not be safer, but in terms of unknown risks, there are fewer than.

00:06:50.300 We all agree with that.

00:06:51.340 But the question is, when those other vaccinations were brand new,

00:06:56.580 how long did they wait before the public got them,

00:07:00.860 and how long did we wait before they were mandatory for kids,

00:07:04.100 before they could go to school?

00:07:07.920 Yeah, so the other question is whether they were required when new.

00:07:11.140 Yeah, that's a good question, too.

00:07:12.760 Were the other vaccinations required when they were new?

00:07:16.160 So I'd just like a history lesson, if somebody could give me one,

00:07:19.340 or point to a link.

00:07:21.560 Because Newsom's argument sort of depends on that, doesn't it?

00:07:25.680 It depends on you knowing that history.

00:07:28.580 And I feel like it's a little weasel-ish because we don't.

00:07:33.980 Exactly.

00:07:34.400 So I'm seeing one comment that says mandatory vaccinations

00:07:41.600 were usually about 15 years later.

00:07:44.780 Now, I don't know if they waited for a reason,

00:07:50.440 or they just wasn't being demanded in schools yet.

00:07:54.620 FDA didn't approve.

00:07:56.060 What do you mean?

00:07:56.820 Oh, FDA didn't approve.

00:07:58.060 Well, I don't know.

00:08:01.200 I think the FDA didn't approve is not exactly as true as it should be.

00:08:08.660 Because I think they did approve it,

00:08:10.220 they just did it on a quicker basis and with less information, maybe.

00:08:14.380 But it's definitely approved.

00:08:16.820 Saying it's not approved, I don't think that's factually true.

00:08:20.400 It might be approved with less information.

00:08:22.620 Now, that would be true, I think.

00:08:23.720 So what do you think about that?

00:08:29.820 Mandatory vaccinations for kids.

00:08:32.800 Everybody happy about that?

00:08:34.680 I've got a feeling that this audience is not too happy about that.

00:08:39.100 Yeah.

00:08:40.020 Well, it's going to happen anyway.

00:08:41.920 What happens when we have mandatory vaccinations for teachers?

00:08:46.020 Because that's already true in New York City, right?

00:08:49.220 Is it mandatory in New York City?

00:08:50.640 I think mandatory vaccinations for teachers is kind of...

00:08:57.460 It has to happen, right?

00:09:01.080 Oh, so here's an interesting question.

00:09:03.760 I don't think Newsom can get away with mandatory vaccinations for kids,

00:09:08.820 but not the teachers and the staff.

00:09:12.620 What am I missing here?

00:09:14.540 Am I missing something?

00:09:15.560 Did Newsom already say the teachers need vaccinations?

00:09:17.980 I don't think so, right?

00:09:19.280 Or did he?

00:09:19.780 Maybe that's the part I'm missing.

00:09:25.420 Well, what happens when the teachers' unions in California

00:09:29.400 learn that they're going to have to have mandatory vaccinations too?

00:09:33.700 Are they going to get them?

00:09:36.600 So it looks like maybe the governor and the people

00:09:40.520 and the teachers' unions are going to have a little issue here, aren't they?

00:09:45.580 Right?

00:09:46.100 Or is there something I'm missing?

00:09:52.920 Wow.

00:09:53.440 I'm hearing from a doctor over on Locals.

00:09:57.200 I just missed getting a bad polio vaccine that gave 50% of the people polio.

00:10:02.060 Was that true back in the early polio vaccine days?

00:10:05.660 Was there a bad version?

00:10:09.000 I've never heard that story, but if it's true.

00:10:11.520 I mean, it's coming from a doctor, so I'm guessing it is true.

00:10:15.000 Oh, I'm seeing a lot of yeses.

00:10:17.080 Okay.

00:10:17.560 Well, you can't really even compare that day and age to today, I don't think.

00:10:21.720 I don't think that would be a fair comparison.

00:10:23.220 Because, you know, here's my guess.

00:10:27.160 My guess, and I could use a fact check on this too,

00:10:31.180 is that our ability to predict what kinds of things are going to be a problem in the future

00:10:35.360 is probably better, right?

00:10:36.880 Because we've seen enough things in the past, we're like,

00:10:39.040 oh, it's like that thing in the past, better watch out for that one.

00:10:42.700 So I don't think you can compare, you know, 30 or 50 years ago medicine to today.

00:10:49.120 I just don't think that's apples and oranges anymore.

00:10:51.140 Anyway, that's happening.

00:10:55.460 What else is happening?

00:10:57.720 In New York City, there's a George Floyd statue that just went up,

00:11:02.820 along with two others.

00:11:05.260 Also, Breonna Taylor and John Lewis.

00:11:10.420 Civil rights hero John Lewis.

00:11:12.980 Now, let me ask you this.

00:11:15.140 Let's say you're the family of John Lewis.

00:11:17.700 Do you all know John Lewis?

00:11:21.140 John Lewis died last year?

00:11:23.120 Was it within last year he died?

00:11:26.260 And widely considered a hero of the civil rights movement, right?

00:11:33.600 Pretty much left, right, center.

00:11:36.560 Everybody considers John Lewis a hero, American hero.

00:11:40.420 His bust was just put up with George Floyd's.

00:11:46.960 So now they're treated about the same in terms of historically important, similar.

00:11:54.880 Similar.

00:11:56.400 Does that feel good to you?

00:11:58.760 Let me say this.

00:12:00.160 As many of you know, the rules about who you identify with or what your identity is, is up to you.

00:12:10.040 Everybody agrees with that so far, right?

00:12:12.440 You can identify any way you want.

00:12:14.500 You can be gay or straight or non-binary.

00:12:17.760 You can be whatever ethnicity you want if you identify that way.

00:12:21.380 And I like that rule because I've decided that I will identify as a white, I'm sorry, forget the white part, as a heterosexual black man.

00:12:35.700 So I identify as a heterosexual black man because I've lost several jobs to racial discrimination.

00:12:43.980 If you don't know that story, I'm not going to get into it now.

00:12:46.600 But two corporate jobs I lost because my boss, in each case, told me directly,

00:12:52.180 can't promote you because you're white and male, right?

00:12:55.880 And one TV show because I was white.

00:12:57.820 So I've been massively discriminated against, economically, for being white.

00:13:05.260 So I feel like I have a lived experience of a person who lives in a world in which they're continuously discriminated against.

00:13:11.600 So I've just decided to identify as black.

00:13:15.260 One, because I can.

00:13:17.080 Apparently the rules allow that.

00:13:19.120 And I'm just following the rules.

00:13:21.020 And since I have, like, some connection, some affinity with that part of the country,

00:13:27.020 and I also like being on a winning team.

00:13:31.640 That might be the most offensive part of what I'm saying.

00:13:34.580 I like being on the winning team.

00:13:37.100 And I feel like black America is sort of on a winning streak at the moment.

00:13:44.560 I mean, things are still terrible in so many ways, which is why it's worth, you know,

00:13:48.740 it's worth being active in that area because things are so bad.

00:13:52.040 Maybe you can help.

00:13:53.480 But definitely black America is doing better.

00:13:56.180 Right.

00:13:57.280 Than in the past.

00:13:59.300 Although you could argue the 60s, they had more homeownership.

00:14:02.280 So I think there's a little ambiguity on that.

00:14:06.480 But let me give some advice to the group that I associate with.

00:14:12.380 I don't feel like you're doing what you hope to accomplish by putting up statues of George Floyd.

00:14:24.080 I just don't feel that's the hero that you want.

00:14:29.300 And I don't have to get into the details, right?

00:14:31.680 You know, he's, you know, the Floyd family, they don't need that.

00:14:36.400 But it feels like a gigantic mistake in terms of branding.

00:14:44.420 So I'll just put that out there.

00:14:46.720 There's room for disagreement on this, right?

00:14:49.420 Now, we do have a history that victims are sometimes remembered.

00:14:54.380 And it's important.

00:14:56.440 It is important.

00:14:56.760 It is important to remember victims.

00:14:59.220 But I don't know if you want to pair the victim with the hero.

00:15:03.500 Does that feel right?

00:15:05.400 Because John Lewis is like one of the, you know, most impressive heroes that America's ever produced.

00:15:14.520 And putting him in the same event with George Floyd, who was just in the wrong place at the wrong time, doing the wrong stuff.

00:15:23.900 I mean, the cops were doing the wrong stuff, too.

00:15:26.940 So, but that just feels like a mistake to me.

00:15:32.620 So I say that as an insider.

00:15:35.420 As a proud heterosexual black man, I feel like that did not help our cause.

00:15:41.100 There was a massive fentanyl ring bus.

00:15:47.340 Like 800 dealers got rounded up.

00:15:50.140 So good job for the DEA.

00:15:52.140 Was it the DEA?

00:15:53.000 Yeah.

00:15:53.480 I think they did a great job.

00:15:55.080 I guess they've been surveilling this network for a long time.

00:15:59.320 And they just rolled up a whole bunch of them.

00:16:00.980 So it sounds like amazing work.

00:16:03.000 Congratulations on that.

00:16:05.380 But I tweeted that fentanyl dealers should get the death penalty.

00:16:09.220 Because they are mass murderers.

00:16:11.780 They just do it statistically.

00:16:14.800 Right?

00:16:15.520 It's not less of a murder if you don't know the name of the person who's going to get killed.

00:16:21.560 Take, and I like to use my example of the Las Vegas mass murder.

00:16:26.000 You know, the guy who shot from the window of the hotel.

00:16:29.800 He didn't know the names of who he was killing or even which people in the crowd.

00:16:34.100 Statistically, he murdered people.

00:16:38.440 Definitely.

00:16:39.760 He murdered a bunch of people.

00:16:41.580 He didn't know who they were.

00:16:43.240 And didn't even know which body he was aiming at exactly.

00:16:46.580 He was just sort of spraying the crowd.

00:16:48.460 So is he not guilty of murder because he didn't know who he was murdering?

00:16:53.340 No.

00:16:54.060 No, he's guilty of murder.

00:16:55.540 He's just dead, so we can't do anything about it.

00:16:57.240 Likewise, if you're a fentanyl dealer, if you were, let's say, a small dealer and you gave some pills to your friends, well, probably that's not exactly like murdering people.

00:17:10.300 That's taking a bad risk with your friends, and that's probably bad.

00:17:15.020 But suppose it's your job.

00:17:17.060 You're a big old fentanyl dealer and you're just moving lots of it.

00:17:20.360 And maybe hundreds of people are involved with your network at that point.

00:17:26.020 If you've given a fentanyl product to hundreds of people, you've killed people.

00:17:33.020 You're a murderer.

00:17:35.000 Statistically speaking, if you give fentanyl in pills to hundreds of people, some of them die.

00:17:44.160 And you know that.

00:17:45.180 It's not even a chance.

00:17:47.000 Some of them are going to die.

00:17:48.100 So, to me, that's just murder.

00:17:50.960 It just is being done in a statistical sense.

00:17:53.880 Now, what was the pushback I got from that on Twitter?

00:17:56.780 Scott, Scott, Scott, people said.

00:17:59.440 Now, what about people who give you sugar?

00:18:05.460 Sugar's killing you, right?

00:18:07.860 How about the fast food companies?

00:18:12.260 They're killing you, statistically speaking.

00:18:15.340 That's a good point, right?

00:18:17.100 Statistically speaking, McDonald's is murdering, you know, tens of thousands of people a year.

00:18:23.600 Statistically.

00:18:24.280 They don't know the names of their victims.

00:18:27.540 But they're part of the problem.

00:18:29.960 So, do you treat them the same?

00:18:31.480 McDonald's and a fentanyl dealer?

00:18:33.800 This is what people were saying to me on Twitter.

00:18:36.520 To which I say, you know, it does matter if it's legal, right?

00:18:40.780 McDonald's is legal.

00:18:44.400 You know, maybe you could argue it shouldn't be.

00:18:47.040 But it is.

00:18:48.500 It's legal.

00:18:50.060 So, you know, alcohol, cigarettes.

00:18:53.660 You could argue they shouldn't be legal.

00:18:56.500 And I would listen to that as a separate argument.

00:18:59.220 But they are legal.

00:19:01.160 You don't put people to death for doing legal things.

00:19:05.600 You know, you'd have to, at the very minimum, you'd have to make it illegal.

00:19:08.780 And then we could have the conversation of whether they're statistical murderers.

00:19:12.900 But if the state has already said, you can do this, and then they do what the state says they can do,

00:19:18.640 even if it does kill people, it looks different to me.

00:19:24.160 To me, that looks different.

00:19:25.120 But I can see how you might disagree.

00:19:29.720 Today, CNN reported nothing is actually something.

00:19:34.920 So how do you turn nothing into something?

00:19:38.800 Well, let me tell you.

00:19:40.160 Let me tell you.

00:19:41.600 It's about the infrastructure bill.

00:19:43.940 And I guess Biden went and talked to the Democrats to try to, you know, try to loosen things up

00:19:49.220 because it's all constipated and they can't agree on this infrastructure bill.

00:19:53.200 And literally nothing happened.

00:19:57.380 So Biden talked to the Democrats.

00:20:00.160 Nothing happened.

00:20:01.980 How did CNN report?

00:20:04.440 Nothing.

00:20:05.680 Here's the exact sentence.

00:20:08.860 White House officials think the president accomplished what he went to do on Capitol Hill.

00:20:13.840 Oh, good.

00:20:14.360 Okay.

00:20:14.680 So here they're going to explain what it was he wanted to accomplish, and we'll see that he did it.

00:20:18.920 It says, quote, remind Democrats of what is at stake while relieving some of the pressure that had built up over the last several days

00:20:28.920 and reiterating his commitment to passing both pieces of legislation.

00:20:34.440 With that done, officials believe negotiators have a better environment to be able to push toward a deal.

00:20:40.900 Am I wrong that that's nothing?

00:20:47.280 And they use words to make it sound like it was something?

00:20:51.640 And listen to this again.

00:20:53.600 There's nothing here.

00:20:56.320 He was supposed to remind Democrats of what is at stake.

00:20:59.540 Which Democrats didn't know what was at stake with the infrastructure bill?

00:21:05.560 Not only with the bill itself, but with what that does with the future and whether failing at it is good or bad.

00:21:12.180 They all understood that.

00:21:13.820 That's the most nothing I've ever seen in the news.

00:21:16.820 He reminded people of what everybody obviously knows.

00:21:20.320 But he did more than that, according to CNN.

00:21:23.180 He also relieved some of the pressure that had built up.

00:21:27.340 How do you measure that?

00:21:30.580 Is there like a pressure gauge on the side of the building of Congress?

00:21:36.180 You're like, ooh, we're up to 80% pressure.

00:21:39.640 We're going to need to send Biden over here.

00:21:42.940 Lower that pressure.

00:21:44.860 This is not a thing.

00:21:46.640 These are just words that were put in a sentence that were put in a paragraph.

00:21:52.780 Literally nothing happened.

00:21:53.920 All right.

00:21:57.340 And also reminded them of his, quote, commitment to passing both pieces of legislation.

00:22:06.380 What does it mean to say the president is committed to something?

00:22:11.340 There's no information here.

00:22:13.920 No information at all.

00:22:15.840 All right.

00:22:16.640 Let's talk about replacement theory that's in the news.

00:22:20.400 You know, the news likes to say that replacement theory, which I'll explain if you don't know what it is,

00:22:27.920 is being pushed by, you know, some Fox News hosts like Tucker Carlson,

00:22:33.320 and that it's all crazy conspiracy theory stuff.

00:22:37.100 Now, replacement theory is the idea that immigration is really about bringing in a lot of people from other countries to replace the, you know,

00:22:50.740 European biased culture in this country and get more Democrats and, you know, make it a different country.

00:22:57.700 Now, how many of you think that there's somebody who has a plan, like actually, oh, if we bring in lots of people, we'll replace all these white people and we'll get more Democrat votes?

00:23:13.740 In the comments, how many people think that's literally what's happening?

00:23:17.640 And that, and no, I'm not talking about what's happening so much as the intention.

00:23:23.520 So I'm only talking about the intention.

00:23:25.960 Are there people who are actually talking out loud, but privately, about replacing all the white people and making this a different country via immigration?

00:23:38.820 In the comments, I'm seeing both yeses and notes.

00:23:41.800 Lots of yeses.

00:23:43.740 This is actually written in books, Vlad says.

00:23:46.620 It's actually written in books, people saying, let's replace all the white people.

00:23:52.500 So are the people doing it, reading those books and taking that opinion?

00:23:59.020 I'm sure that the idea of it is in books.

00:24:02.780 I wouldn't doubt that.

00:24:04.740 But is that why people are doing it?

00:24:07.480 Is that why, is Nancy Pelosi, do you think that Nancy Pelosi has meetings with people and they're like, all right, don't tell anybody.

00:24:14.140 But what we're trying to do is to get fewer people like me, Nancy Pelosi.

00:24:20.720 That's the goal.

00:24:22.520 We want fewer people like me and my family.

00:24:25.760 Is Nancy Pelosi having that conversation?

00:24:28.440 Because the country would be better if there are fewer people like me.

00:24:32.620 Is she saying that?

00:24:34.800 I'm seeing a lot of yeses.

00:24:36.780 I'm not saying she is or not.

00:24:38.500 I'm just looking at your comments.

00:24:40.660 A lot of people think that Nancy Pelosi wants to replace herself and her family with other people.

00:24:47.640 In addition to replacing all the other white people.

00:24:50.760 So that's what a lot of people think that's literally what's happening.

00:24:54.440 AOC.

00:24:55.620 Somebody says AOC wants to replace all the, or replace white people with more brown people.

00:25:00.920 Well, here's my advice.

00:25:08.140 We never really know what people's intentions are.

00:25:11.880 We think we do.

00:25:13.400 I don't want to say never, that's too absolute.

00:25:15.380 But we're often wrong about that.

00:25:18.700 Probably more often wrong than right when it comes to these edge cases.

00:25:23.880 And here's what I think.

00:25:26.800 To me, it looks like politicians are too short-term thinkers.

00:25:32.080 In order to believe replacement theory, you'd have to believe that our politicians are long-term thinkers.

00:25:39.080 Do you believe that?

00:25:41.880 Do you believe that our politicians are thinking past the next election or two?

00:25:49.100 I don't see evidence of that.

00:25:50.580 To me, it just looks like politicians are doing what their current constituents want them to do.

00:25:57.920 Because they think that will win votes.

00:26:01.300 Do you need to be more complicated than the fact that immigration is popular with Democrats?

00:26:07.860 And so Democratic leaders want to give their people what they're asking for?

00:26:11.700 Because there are a lot of Hispanic Democrats who would like immigration to get their family in, etc.

00:26:22.340 And there are enough people who sympathize with that point of view.

00:26:26.440 That isn't it just normal leadership to give people what they want?

00:26:31.440 And do you think the voters are thinking that?

00:26:33.200 Do you think the Hispanic Americans or, you know, the Latinx or whatever name you want to put on it today,

00:26:42.320 do you think that they're thinking, oh, if you let my relatives in, I get to replace some more white people?

00:26:49.760 I kind of doubt it.

00:26:51.880 I feel like it's being driven by the public, not by the politicians.

00:26:56.920 And the politicians are simply responding to the public, you know, being favorable about immigration.

00:27:03.200 To me, that's all it looks like.

00:27:05.740 Now, is there anybody who would say out loud on the Democrat side that there might be a side effect or a benefit,

00:27:15.040 which is it changes the voting patterns, especially in, say, Texas, and especially in Florida?

00:27:22.160 Probably they're happy about that, to have more voters.

00:27:25.100 But I feel that that's a little too long-term for them to really be making decisions on it.

00:27:31.360 I think that that's just a side benefit that they get along with making their voters happy at the moment.

00:27:37.700 So that's my take.

00:27:38.680 My take is that they only care about the next election-ish,

00:27:42.320 but they don't mind that it might have a long-term benefit.

00:27:47.220 But I don't think that's the intention so much as something they don't mind, you know, that does work in their favor.

00:27:52.460 I saw an argument on the CNN opinion piece that the worst thing that could happen to the people afraid of replacement theory is to get what they want.

00:28:08.480 You know, you've heard the be afraid of getting what you want, you know, that could be a problem.

00:28:13.360 And if there are a bunch of white people who are afraid of replacement theory, suppose they got their way.

00:28:21.360 Suppose we just stopped immigration, and they got their way.

00:28:26.580 First of all, the white majority would disappear anyway, because the demographics are going to make that happen.

00:28:33.980 So it would just take longer.

00:28:35.720 You know, the replacement would still happen, just take a little longer.

00:28:38.300 And that's the only way to get young people, because the white population is not having as many children.

00:28:47.400 So the only way you could have a country that works in the long run, as far as we know,

00:28:51.920 I mean, maybe robots and AI will change everything,

00:28:55.540 but at the moment, the only way we know to have a prosperous country in the long run is to have more young people.

00:29:02.120 How do you get the young people unless you bring them in?

00:29:04.560 Because the older white people are just not having babies.

00:29:08.300 So, the second thing that you have to look at is the degree of, let's say, mixing.

00:29:16.840 Now, I don't know if you see as much of it as I do, because I live in California.

00:29:20.660 So California is, you know, not counting New York City, maybe,

00:29:25.220 is just one of the most melting, pottiest places you could ever be.

00:29:29.840 There's a little of everything.

00:29:30.740 If you go to a house party in California, there's just every combination of everybody.

00:29:36.040 Simply virtue signaling?

00:29:39.820 Yeah, maybe.

00:29:40.440 Maybe it is just virtue signaling.

00:29:43.280 But here's, you know, what movie was it?

00:29:45.900 Bull Durham or something?

00:29:47.620 That the thought was everybody would just have sex until everybody was brown?

00:29:51.720 It'll all take care of itself in the long run?

00:29:54.420 Something like that's kind of going to happen in the long run.

00:29:57.140 You know, the number of kids in California who are some mixture of whatever is pretty high.

00:30:06.940 You know, you have, if your kids have their friends over, you've got a little of everything, right?

00:30:14.280 It's just a little bit of everything.

00:30:15.620 So we might just have sex to the point where the whole racial thing just doesn't make as much sense anymore.

00:30:24.220 Oh, Bullworth.

00:30:24.980 Bullworth, sorry.

00:30:26.000 Not Bull Durham.

00:30:27.020 The movie was Bullworth.

00:30:28.620 Thank you.

00:30:30.200 All right, worldwide, the COVID deaths have reached 5 million, it is being reported.

00:30:35.900 Do you believe that?

00:30:37.080 Do you believe that 5 million people have died worldwide from COVID?

00:30:40.520 And that half of them, I think half of them came in the United States?

00:30:47.300 What's wrong with that?

00:30:50.120 What's wrong with these two statistics?

00:30:52.820 5 million deaths, and half of them were in the United States.

00:30:57.800 Does that make sense to you?

00:31:00.240 You don't think half of them were in India?

00:31:03.560 Maybe.

00:31:03.960 Well, you know, if it's true that India is undercounting their deaths by, you know, a factor of 5 or 10, or God knows,

00:31:13.000 I've got a feeling that 5 million reported deaths is really 20 million.

00:31:19.480 Give me a guess what you think.

00:31:21.740 If the official reported number is 5 million deaths worldwide, what do you think?

00:31:27.060 Just your intuition or your skepticism or your distrust, just your hunch.

00:31:32.280 What do you think is a real number?

00:31:34.660 I'm seeing a lot of people going lower, 1 million, 1 million.

00:31:38.580 So you would be the people who would say, it's not so much the COVID, it was the comorbidities,

00:31:42.740 and the way we're counting it, and, you know, we're throwing everything in that category.

00:31:48.240 Well, I would say that, at the very least, the different countries are not counting it the same.

00:31:54.300 And some can't count it at all, because they just don't have the good enough records.

00:31:57.860 So my intuition tells me that if everybody counted the way we did, it would be closer to 20 million.

00:32:08.720 But if we counted the way other countries do, it might be closer to a million.

00:32:15.000 So I think it has to do with how you count it, right?

00:32:18.180 I don't think it's a million or 20 million, it's just how you count it.

00:32:21.400 I think you can get to either number.

00:32:22.860 All right, so we don't trust much about statistics, and we should not.

00:32:30.120 Here's a little story about my own confirmation bias.

00:32:34.080 Now, confirmation bias, as you know, is when you see something that agrees with you,

00:32:37.620 and you're like, oh, that looks accurate.

00:32:39.640 That is totally accurate, because it happens to agree with you.

00:32:42.940 That's the reason you think it's accurate.

00:32:45.300 Here's mine.

00:32:46.020 Now, the story is that there's a new study that is looking at the correlation between vitamin D3 and mortality from COVID.

00:32:56.980 And the thinking is that the more vitamin D3 you have, the less chance of dying, up to the point of maybe close to zero.

00:33:06.280 That you could actually bring the death rate close to zero if everybody had enough D3.

00:33:11.280 Now, here's what seems to be new.

00:33:12.820 And by the way, this is not yet a reliable study.

00:33:18.040 So what I'm going to say next should not be deemed as reliable.

00:33:22.600 Hasn't gone through peer review, blah, blah, blah, blah.

00:33:26.540 But it's new information, and I certainly doubt that you could have enough vitamin D to bring the death rate to zero.

00:33:33.660 That doesn't sound...

00:33:35.420 We don't really live in a world where that's possible.

00:33:38.680 You can't bring anything to zero.

00:33:40.000 But I guess what they added was some extra analysis to support the idea that the D3 is the cause of the better outcomes, or worse, as opposed to just a correlation.

00:33:55.760 Because the problem is that people who are sick almost always have low vitamin D3.

00:34:00.360 And the people who die of COVID are the people who already have some comorbidities.

00:34:05.680 So it's guaranteed, just based on the fact that, you know, those two facts, it's guaranteed that a lot of people with COVID would also have low vitamin D.

00:34:14.660 But it could be a coincidence, because they were sick from other things.

00:34:17.340 What this study purports to find is that it is causal and not, hey, say hi to Boo.

00:34:25.520 She's looking around.

00:34:27.840 By the way, could I give you some good news?

00:34:31.900 It's good news for me.

00:34:33.760 But I'm hoping that, you know, you followed along enough to feel some goodness in it.

00:34:40.640 But yesterday, for the first time in two weeks, Boo ate solid food.

00:34:47.600 Now, the feeding tube's still in, because just to give medicines and stuff, it's just a little convenience, so I'll leave it in a little bit longer.

00:34:55.260 But just yesterday, yesterday late afternoon, she took some bites of food, and then a little bit later as well.

00:35:02.920 And in my little life, that's a really big deal.

00:35:09.680 It's a really big deal.

00:35:12.000 Now, she's not out of the woods.

00:35:13.640 She's got some extra tests.

00:35:16.100 They have to still rule out some nasty stuff that's still possible.

00:35:20.920 But they're trying to rule that out.

00:35:22.900 But at the moment, that's a...

00:35:26.700 Let me bring her over here for a...

00:35:29.680 I think she's coming this way.

00:35:32.920 Boo wants to say hi.

00:35:33.820 Boo, come here.

00:35:35.680 Come here.

00:35:39.880 There we go.

00:35:41.020 So here's her little feeding tube.

00:35:43.280 It goes into a hole that they put in her neck, and that goes through the neck, and it goes to the top of the stomach.

00:35:49.760 So she doesn't really feel the food going in, except she knows it's happening.

00:35:54.700 So she's lost a lot of weight.

00:35:56.160 She's a little skinny now.

00:35:57.400 But she knows where her food is.

00:35:59.340 We're going to make sure she has some as soon as we're done.

00:36:01.000 All right.

00:36:02.480 I think I was talking about something else besides my cat.

00:36:05.040 Oh, yeah.

00:36:05.500 Confirmation bias.

00:36:06.760 Well, so the reason this vitamin D3 thing is confirmation bias is because early in the pandemic,

00:36:15.740 I was one of a number of people, I'm not the only person who said this,

00:36:20.560 but I was kind of out in front of the vitamin D3 thing saying,

00:36:25.060 why does it look to me like there's a correlation between the countries that have the best vitamin D

00:36:30.200 and the people who have the best vitamin D and the best outcomes?

00:36:33.700 Now, of course, that was probably just correlation, not causation.

00:36:38.080 But because I was saying that publicly and early, I see a study like this, and what do I say?

00:36:45.540 Oh, that's probably true, right?

00:36:47.860 Because you see a study that agrees with what you put yourself out on the line of saying?

00:36:52.280 You're going to believe that.

00:36:53.640 So what I'm trying to put across is that I'm biased to believe this is true,

00:37:02.060 but I'm also aware of the fact that my bias might be the only reason I think it's true.

00:37:06.560 Because if this were a preprint study on anything else, what would I be telling you?

00:37:11.860 Don't believe it.

00:37:13.300 If it was on any other topic, but just happens to agree with me,

00:37:17.480 so in my mind, it looks a little bit better.

00:37:20.600 All right, here's the most provocative point of the day.

00:37:24.460 So lately, you've seen a bunch of rogue doctors, that's my name for it, rogue doctors,

00:37:29.400 who are doing videos, and you see them in memes and stuff,

00:37:32.920 in which they're doubting the mainstream opinion.

00:37:37.280 Here's my general question.

00:37:40.920 How likely, in general, not just talking about COVID,

00:37:45.160 but talking about all things you've ever seen,

00:37:47.420 how often is the rogue doctor right, going against the mainstream?

00:37:55.500 In the comments, how often?

00:37:57.720 If the only thing you know is that there's a doctor saying,

00:38:00.600 hey, people, you're getting it wrong, everything's wrong,

00:38:04.640 how often do they end up being right?

00:38:07.060 In your experience.

00:38:08.640 Now, this is just the feel of it, the experience.

00:38:12.600 I'll read down some of your numbers.

00:38:13.740 I'm seeing everything from 1% to 75%, 50-50.

00:38:17.860 You're all over the board, 100%.

00:38:20.520 You rarely hear a follow-up from the rogue doctors.

00:38:26.140 Good point.

00:38:28.160 Somebody says they're right about ivermectin.

00:38:30.720 That's what somebody says here.

00:38:33.500 All right, I'll tell you my...

00:38:35.740 I'll tell you my view of it.

00:38:40.200 I think the rogue doctor is right maybe 5% of the time.

00:38:49.540 Now, that says nothing about any specific rogue doctor you're looking at, right?

00:38:56.100 Maybe my cat is making a bed out of my papers here,

00:39:01.300 so it's going to get a little crinkly.

00:39:03.320 Now, I know what you're thinking.

00:39:05.960 You're already sending me the names of specific doctors and specific cases.

00:39:10.560 So, here's a check on your thinking.

00:39:14.300 If during this conversation you said to yourself,

00:39:16.980 yeah, yeah, I get your point, but not this specific doctor,

00:39:21.560 check your thinking.

00:39:23.920 Or if you said, yeah, yeah, yeah, Scott, I get your point as a general statement,

00:39:27.760 but certainly not with ivermectin.

00:39:29.600 If you said that, just check your thinking, right?

00:39:35.140 Doesn't mean you're wrong.

00:39:36.780 You could be right.

00:39:38.660 You know, the rogues are sometimes right, right?

00:39:41.360 All right, 100% of pioneers are rogue.

00:39:44.060 Thank you.

00:39:44.680 That was exactly the point I'm going to make next.

00:39:47.240 How do you square the fact that the rogue doctors,

00:39:51.200 in some sense, seem wrong a lot,

00:39:53.480 whatever you think is a lot,

00:39:54.720 but it's the same token, by the same token.

00:39:59.380 Every single thing that ever changed from wrong to right in science

00:40:03.240 probably started with one person,

00:40:06.140 a rogue scientist, a rogue doctor, right?

00:40:09.940 Does that change my point?

00:40:12.620 So, does that change the statistics

00:40:15.380 of how often the rogue doctor is right?

00:40:19.460 No, not even a little bit.

00:40:21.900 Well, maybe a little bit, but not enough to matter.

00:40:23.660 Both are true.

00:40:26.240 Both can be true, and they don't conflict.

00:40:29.000 It is only the rogue doctor

00:40:30.680 who changes the big things in science

00:40:33.460 that go from wrong to right.

00:40:35.340 Somebody goes first,

00:40:36.760 and when they do, they're the rogue.

00:40:38.980 Einstein was a rogue scientist, right?

00:40:41.620 He said things that others weren't on board with

00:40:43.980 until they were.

00:40:46.500 But it's really rare, right?

00:40:49.400 The reason that Einstein

00:40:53.660 the reason that Newton, Isaac Newton, is famous,

00:40:59.160 very rare, very rare.

00:41:03.220 So, I'm not saying that the rogue doctor is always wrong.

00:41:07.960 As soon as you imagine it as an absolute,

00:41:10.000 it's just nonsense, of course.

00:41:12.000 All absolutes.

00:41:13.000 I almost said all absolutes are nonsense.

00:41:16.340 I won't even finish that sentence.

00:41:18.760 You know what I mean.

00:41:22.600 So, yeah, you can have all of your breakthroughs

00:41:25.060 come from the rogue doctor.

00:41:26.220 At the same time,

00:41:27.540 only 1% of rogue doctors turn out to be right.

00:41:30.580 Do you get that?

00:41:32.720 That's just that one point.

00:41:34.340 Everybody on board?

00:41:35.900 Can be true that every breakthrough is a rogue doctor,

00:41:38.820 and also true that only 1% of it ever works.

00:41:45.060 Right?

00:41:45.660 I'm not saying those are the percentages.

00:41:47.360 I'm just saying they could be true.

00:41:49.540 There would be no conflict between that data.

00:41:53.500 So, I would say this.

00:41:55.900 Every time you see a rogue doctor

00:41:58.200 doubting science,

00:41:59.700 your first impulse should be

00:42:01.420 probably not true.

00:42:03.580 Now, keep an eye on it,

00:42:06.660 because it's going to be

00:42:07.400 one of these rogue doctors

00:42:08.680 who gets it right.

00:42:09.960 Right?

00:42:10.680 Probably.

00:42:11.920 There's got to be at least one rogue doctor

00:42:13.860 who's getting it right.

00:42:14.920 I'm not saying they're all wrong by any means.

00:42:17.000 I'm saying that your first instinct

00:42:18.640 should be probably wrong.

00:42:20.960 And then, you know,

00:42:21.860 maybe you look into it,

00:42:22.800 maybe you modify your opinion

00:42:24.820 after you've looked into it.

00:42:26.460 But you should start with

00:42:27.800 probably wrong.

00:42:30.520 That's your best defense

00:42:31.800 against being taken in

00:42:33.040 by very persuasive people.

00:42:36.620 Now, why is it that the rogue doctors

00:42:38.280 are so persuasive?

00:42:40.600 Tell me.

00:42:41.520 Why are rogue doctors

00:42:43.000 so persuasive?

00:42:44.200 In the comments, tell me why.

00:42:46.000 What is it about them

00:42:47.120 that makes them persuasive?

00:42:50.600 And it's not just one thing.

00:42:52.020 It's a few things.

00:42:56.340 Confirmation bias?

00:42:57.220 Thank you.

00:42:57.740 That is one of the things

00:42:58.560 I'm looking for.

00:42:59.160 If you believed

00:43:00.400 what the rogue doctor is saying,

00:43:01.920 you are susceptible

00:43:03.200 to thinking,

00:43:04.260 oh, it's confirmed now,

00:43:05.620 but it's just confirmation bias.

00:43:07.920 So that's the first thing.

00:43:09.300 That your confirmation bias

00:43:10.660 will work just the way

00:43:11.620 mine did with vitamin D3.

00:43:13.880 I want it to be true

00:43:15.140 so I can be right.

00:43:16.820 So you hear the rogue doctor

00:43:18.320 and he says exactly

00:43:19.440 what you were suspecting.

00:43:21.880 Boom.

00:43:22.440 He must be right

00:43:23.360 because he said

00:43:24.160 exactly what I suspected.

00:43:25.700 Well, your suspicions

00:43:27.700 don't really have

00:43:28.340 much credibility.

00:43:30.940 And neither does

00:43:31.940 the rogue doctor.

00:43:35.460 Somebody says

00:43:36.180 they're reasoning.

00:43:37.280 Good.

00:43:37.660 That's exactly

00:43:38.220 what I was looking for.

00:43:39.240 The rogue doctors

00:43:40.460 are persuasive

00:43:42.480 because they have

00:43:43.700 excellent reasoning

00:43:45.240 and credible data.

00:43:47.880 Right?

00:43:49.160 Everybody agree with that?

00:43:50.380 The reason that

00:43:51.180 they're persuasive

00:43:51.860 is they have

00:43:53.160 what looks like

00:43:54.660 credible data.

00:43:55.540 You don't know

00:43:55.880 if it's right,

00:43:56.440 but it's credible.

00:43:57.740 And real good explanations

00:43:59.680 that make sense to you.

00:44:01.440 So that's why

00:44:02.060 they're persuasive.

00:44:03.640 Do you know

00:44:04.200 who else is persuasive

00:44:06.000 in that way?

00:44:08.280 Everybody who's wrong.

00:44:11.000 Everybody who's wrong.

00:44:12.920 They're persuasive

00:44:13.700 in exactly the same way.

00:44:15.180 Because if you only hear

00:44:16.180 one side of an argument

00:44:17.140 and then somebody's smart,

00:44:19.140 you know,

00:44:19.340 doctors are pretty smart,

00:44:21.360 it'll sound persuasive.

00:44:23.060 It has nothing to do

00:44:24.240 with how true it is.

00:44:25.600 The level of persuasiveness

00:44:27.720 of one person talking

00:44:30.320 and making their point

00:44:31.400 without the counterpoint

00:44:32.560 should be zero.

00:44:35.820 The level of credibility

00:44:37.220 you should give

00:44:37.960 any person

00:44:38.640 when you haven't heard

00:44:39.660 the counterpoint

00:44:40.780 is zero.

00:44:43.460 If you give them

00:44:44.380 higher than zero,

00:44:45.420 you're really doing it wrong.

00:44:46.920 Again,

00:44:47.280 it doesn't mean they're wrong.

00:44:48.620 That doctor could turn out

00:44:50.080 to be the right one.

00:44:50.840 But on moment one,

00:44:54.320 the first exposure to it,

00:44:57.320 doctor saying something

00:44:58.640 that other people

00:44:59.340 are not saying

00:45:00.060 and no counterpoint

00:45:01.500 shown at the same time,

00:45:03.600 no pushback shown,

00:45:06.400 give that zero credibility.

00:45:08.600 Keep an open mind

00:45:09.540 and maybe look into it more

00:45:11.500 and keep watching the topic.

00:45:13.360 But at the start,

00:45:14.520 it should be zero.

00:45:16.400 I'll bet a lot of you

00:45:17.300 start at 100%.

00:45:17.840 Am I right?

00:45:22.220 Do a lot of you

00:45:22.900 start at 100%?

00:45:24.220 You hear him

00:45:24.700 and he's like convincing

00:45:25.500 as hell.

00:45:26.780 You say,

00:45:27.380 damn it,

00:45:27.740 that agrees with

00:45:28.420 just what I suspected.

00:45:30.220 Done.

00:45:31.660 Convinced.

00:45:32.820 I think you're starting

00:45:33.820 at 100%

00:45:34.580 when you start at 0%.

00:45:36.080 Now,

00:45:36.860 the real number

00:45:38.460 might be somewhere

00:45:39.120 in between

00:45:39.620 in terms of credibility.

00:45:41.760 But don't start at 100%

00:45:43.620 and try to move backwards.

00:45:45.520 Start at zero

00:45:46.460 and see if he can move up.

00:45:49.400 That would be good hygiene

00:45:50.740 for keeping yourself

00:45:52.040 out of trouble,

00:45:52.700 right?

00:45:56.340 All right.

00:45:59.120 Rogue doctors.

00:46:02.960 Here's something

00:46:03.720 that Erica said.

00:46:05.340 Erica,

00:46:05.680 you watching?

00:46:07.100 Good morning,

00:46:07.860 Erica.

00:46:09.400 Erica said on Twitter,

00:46:11.260 a little pushback

00:46:11.980 to this point.

00:46:12.980 It's a good pushback.

00:46:14.160 And watch my response to it.

00:46:16.460 She says,

00:46:17.580 oh,

00:46:18.260 I forgot a part.

00:46:20.240 I added the following

00:46:21.360 rule.

00:46:23.900 That if you know

00:46:24.540 the name

00:46:25.120 of the rogue doctor,

00:46:27.120 they're almost certainly

00:46:28.580 not right.

00:46:31.220 Doesn't mean

00:46:31.880 they're always wrong.

00:46:32.880 Remember,

00:46:33.220 there are no absolutes here.

00:46:34.900 But statistically speaking,

00:46:36.820 if you can think

00:46:37.600 of the name

00:46:38.120 of the doctor,

00:46:40.100 I'm going to say

00:46:41.520 that doctor

00:46:42.400 will be proven wrong.

00:46:43.400 Why?

00:46:44.180 Why?

00:46:44.940 Give me in the comments

00:46:46.060 why I'm saying that.

00:46:48.040 This will be a good test

00:46:49.040 because this is a

00:46:50.160 callback

00:46:52.260 to a principle

00:46:53.300 that I've talked

00:46:53.980 about a few times.

00:46:56.680 Why does the fact

00:46:58.360 that you as a consumer,

00:46:59.740 knowing the name

00:47:00.460 of the doctor,

00:47:02.000 why does that make it

00:47:02.900 the least likely

00:47:03.960 it's true?

00:47:06.520 Because it's a weird name?

00:47:07.820 No.

00:47:08.000 No.

00:47:08.840 Court cases won?

00:47:09.860 No.

00:47:11.100 More interested

00:47:11.860 in being famous

00:47:12.600 than right?

00:47:14.260 I hadn't thought

00:47:15.240 of that,

00:47:15.940 but maybe.

00:47:17.300 That's not a bad comment.

00:47:19.160 It's not where

00:47:19.640 I was going.

00:47:20.180 Because of their egos,

00:47:21.260 maybe?

00:47:22.140 Might be part of it.

00:47:22.980 That's not where

00:47:23.420 I'm going.

00:47:25.740 All right.

00:47:27.840 None of you got it.

00:47:29.360 Looks like none

00:47:30.020 of you got it.

00:47:31.480 It's the theory

00:47:34.620 about what makes news.

00:47:38.220 What makes news?

00:47:40.920 What is it

00:47:41.620 that makes news?

00:47:44.400 Things that aren't true.

00:47:47.060 Things that aren't true

00:47:48.080 is what get your attention.

00:47:50.300 Things that are true

00:47:51.360 don't stick in your mind.

00:47:55.180 They're just,

00:47:55.860 well, that's true.

00:47:56.940 Just,

00:47:57.260 phew,

00:47:57.980 it's gone.

00:47:58.280 But things that are

00:47:59.620 outrageous and crazy

00:48:01.020 and also not true

00:48:03.220 stick in your mind.

00:48:05.500 Does anybody forget

00:48:06.880 that President Trump

00:48:08.720 once suggested

00:48:10.280 people drink bleach?

00:48:12.420 You all remember that,

00:48:13.880 don't you?

00:48:15.020 Is there anybody

00:48:15.840 who follows politics

00:48:17.120 who doesn't know

00:48:18.220 that story?

00:48:19.260 Why do you know it?

00:48:21.600 Why do you know

00:48:22.340 that story?

00:48:23.540 Because it's not true.

00:48:25.460 It's the not true part

00:48:27.020 that makes you remember it.

00:48:29.240 Because there's something

00:48:30.220 about the story

00:48:31.120 that doesn't make sense.

00:48:33.220 Like, you're like,

00:48:34.060 really?

00:48:35.440 You did that?

00:48:36.940 I mean,

00:48:37.220 it feels like

00:48:38.140 they have evidence

00:48:38.900 and people are saying it

00:48:40.120 but it doesn't make sense.

00:48:42.940 Right?

00:48:44.140 This principle

00:48:45.100 will blow your mind

00:48:46.380 if you haven't heard it before.

00:48:48.500 The thing that makes

00:48:49.640 a thing news

00:48:50.500 is also

00:48:52.660 the thing that makes

00:48:53.740 it not true.

00:48:55.760 Right?

00:48:56.420 Those are so paired

00:48:58.260 that what makes it news

00:49:00.280 is that it's not true.

00:49:01.320 Think of all the things

00:49:02.540 that were news.

00:49:03.080 Russian collusion,

00:49:05.800 the Russians paying

00:49:07.060 the Taliban

00:49:08.700 to kill Americans.

00:49:11.140 Your hair's on fire, right?

00:49:13.460 Charlottesville,

00:49:14.100 fine people hoax.

00:49:16.080 These are the ones

00:49:16.980 you remember.

00:49:18.500 And it's because

00:49:19.360 it's dog bites man stories.

00:49:22.180 I'm sorry.

00:49:22.780 It's man bites dog stories.

00:49:24.560 If you hear that

00:49:25.340 a dog bites a person,

00:49:26.600 you're like,

00:49:26.940 eh,

00:49:27.320 you don't even remember it

00:49:28.380 because it's normal.

00:49:29.000 But if you hear a man

00:49:30.340 bites a dog,

00:49:32.180 you're going to remember that.

00:49:34.120 That's unusual.

00:49:35.780 So it's the

00:49:36.440 unusualness

00:49:38.800 and the provocative

00:49:40.000 nature of the claim

00:49:41.260 that makes you know

00:49:42.560 the name of the doctor

00:49:43.500 because it becomes news

00:49:45.960 because the news

00:49:47.260 and especially social media

00:49:48.680 say,

00:49:49.340 man,

00:49:49.560 this is good stuff.

00:49:50.960 This is good stuff.

00:49:52.060 We're going to put this

00:49:52.820 in the headline.

00:49:54.240 So

00:49:54.520 it doesn't guarantee

00:49:56.700 that the person is wrong.

00:49:57.820 So I'm not saying that.

00:49:59.560 I'm not saying that

00:50:00.340 if you know the doctor's name,

00:50:01.700 that means they're wrong.

00:50:04.080 Classic examples

00:50:05.160 would be,

00:50:06.180 you know,

00:50:06.620 it could be a doctor

00:50:07.440 that you already knew

00:50:08.240 from another reason.

00:50:09.380 You know,

00:50:09.540 Dr. Drew.

00:50:10.680 You knew Dr. Drew

00:50:11.540 from other reasons,

00:50:12.320 so this has nothing

00:50:13.320 to do with this example.

00:50:14.880 But if the only reason

00:50:16.120 you heard of a doctor

00:50:17.000 is because of their

00:50:19.180 rogue,

00:50:20.120 contrarian views,

00:50:21.380 just start at zero

00:50:23.420 and then try to work

00:50:25.740 your way up from zero

00:50:26.700 by being aware

00:50:27.860 that it's an issue

00:50:28.620 and maybe look into it.

00:50:30.080 But start at zero.

00:50:31.960 All right.

00:50:33.080 Erica said,

00:50:33.880 a little pushback

00:50:34.660 about the fact

00:50:36.020 that if you know

00:50:36.600 the name of the doctor,

00:50:38.400 they're probably wrong.

00:50:40.280 Erica says,

00:50:41.040 my guess would come

00:50:41.720 from watching Rand Paul

00:50:43.020 be right in the long run.

00:50:45.200 Only time will tell us

00:50:46.480 if the mandate crumbles

00:50:47.660 and blah, blah.

00:50:48.380 Do you believe that?

00:50:51.580 Has Rand Paul

00:50:52.420 been proven right?

00:50:54.980 Or has Rand Paul

00:50:56.060 been proven wrong?

00:50:57.260 Now, I would say

00:50:57.940 that he's more like Dr. Drew

00:50:59.220 because we know Rand Paul

00:51:00.400 from other reasons, right?

00:51:02.340 So he's famous

00:51:03.060 not for his rogue opinions,

00:51:04.640 but let's just talk

00:51:05.360 about him for a moment

00:51:06.040 because it's

00:51:06.560 an interesting comment.

00:51:07.920 And thank you for that, Erica.

00:51:09.980 I think that was additive.

00:51:13.160 Is Rand Paul right

00:51:14.600 that if you have

00:51:16.000 natural immunity,

00:51:16.880 you don't need

00:51:18.140 a vaccination?

00:51:18.920 That's sort of

00:51:19.600 his main thing, right?

00:51:21.320 Is he right?

00:51:22.640 He's a rogue doctor.

00:51:26.300 And he's saying

00:51:27.160 that if you have

00:51:27.720 the vaccination,

00:51:28.700 you don't need...

00:51:29.700 I'm sorry,

00:51:30.200 if you have natural immunity,

00:51:31.520 you don't need

00:51:33.120 the vaccination.

00:51:34.820 Is he right?

00:51:37.760 Nope.

00:51:38.800 He's not.

00:51:40.520 He's not.

00:51:42.320 Because every...

00:51:44.100 As far as I know,

00:51:45.340 every study

00:51:46.160 has shown that

00:51:47.780 if you get

00:51:48.540 the vaccination

00:51:49.300 on top of natural immunity,

00:51:51.320 you have the best

00:51:52.180 immunity of all.

00:51:52.960 And the best immunity

00:51:54.880 is better than

00:51:56.380 average immunity,

00:51:57.500 isn't it?

00:51:59.900 Give me a fact check

00:52:01.180 in real time here.

00:52:02.380 I need a fact check.

00:52:03.540 Here's my claim.

00:52:05.160 Now remember,

00:52:05.960 this is not exactly

00:52:07.020 what Rand Paul's saying.

00:52:08.620 If I interpret

00:52:09.960 Rand Paul correctly,

00:52:11.540 he's saying that

00:52:12.440 natural immunity

00:52:13.560 should be good enough

00:52:14.880 to have your full rights

00:52:16.900 the same way

00:52:17.480 a vaccinated person does.

00:52:18.820 That's a different argument.

00:52:20.500 If Rand Paul is arguing

00:52:21.800 the political,

00:52:23.840 philosophical nature

00:52:24.860 of things,

00:52:25.920 then I agree

00:52:26.560 with him completely.

00:52:28.260 You hear this clearly.

00:52:30.700 Rand Paul,

00:52:31.640 as a politician,

00:52:33.520 arguing that

00:52:34.320 natural immunity

00:52:35.160 should be seen

00:52:36.120 as good as vaccination,

00:52:37.760 totally agree.

00:52:38.900 Totally agree with him.

00:52:40.460 Good point,

00:52:41.100 and he makes it well.

00:52:41.800 But,

00:52:44.820 medically speaking,

00:52:46.520 medically speaking,

00:52:48.880 we do know

00:52:49.760 that a person

00:52:51.480 with natural immunity

00:52:52.640 will have more immunity

00:52:53.940 with a vaccination.

00:52:56.200 Did you know that?

00:52:58.140 How many of you

00:52:59.140 were aware of that,

00:53:00.040 that your antibodies

00:53:01.200 would be way better

00:53:02.240 if you had natural immunity

00:53:04.280 plus one vaccination shot?

00:53:07.420 I'm saying not true.

00:53:09.520 Those of you

00:53:10.300 who say not true,

00:53:11.140 go Google it

00:53:13.420 when we're done.

00:53:15.000 I think you'll find

00:53:15.780 that it's accepted

00:53:16.980 as true now.

00:53:18.460 And look at

00:53:19.060 Ian Martesis.

00:53:21.280 He did a study on it.

00:53:23.240 You can follow him

00:53:24.040 on Twitter as well.

00:53:25.860 And that's what,

00:53:27.640 I believe that his results

00:53:28.800 showed the same.

00:53:31.020 I don't think

00:53:31.820 there's any,

00:53:32.780 I don't think

00:53:34.240 there's any study

00:53:35.200 that says

00:53:36.560 if you get

00:53:37.160 a vaccination

00:53:38.000 on top of

00:53:39.480 natural immunity

00:53:40.640 that it doesn't help.

00:53:43.520 If you can find that,

00:53:44.820 send it to me.

00:53:45.480 But I don't think

00:53:45.980 that exists.

00:53:47.800 Okay?

00:53:48.620 So,

00:53:49.260 is Rand Paul right

00:53:50.140 or is he wrong?

00:53:51.360 Is he fighting

00:53:51.980 the right fight?

00:53:53.420 Again,

00:53:54.580 if he's fighting it

00:53:55.720 for political,

00:53:57.100 philosophical reasons,

00:53:58.180 absolutely he's right,

00:53:59.160 in my opinion.

00:54:00.180 Because really,

00:54:00.920 it's just an opinion.

00:54:01.580 But I agree

00:54:02.620 with him completely

00:54:03.520 that the people

00:54:04.720 with natural immunity

00:54:06.000 need their freedom.

00:54:07.840 Do we all agree

00:54:08.720 with that?

00:54:09.960 Can I get

00:54:10.580 100% agreement

00:54:11.600 that from a

00:54:12.920 social,

00:54:14.100 legal perspective,

00:54:16.280 you know,

00:54:16.500 what's right

00:54:17.140 about freedom

00:54:18.360 in America,

00:54:19.840 that if you've got

00:54:20.580 natural immunity,

00:54:21.400 and you can,

00:54:22.000 maybe you have to

00:54:22.520 prove it,

00:54:23.100 right,

00:54:23.400 with a test,

00:54:23.960 but if you've got it,

00:54:25.860 that you should have

00:54:26.620 all of your freedom.

00:54:28.720 All of your freedom.

00:54:29.760 No exceptions

00:54:30.440 in terms of the virus.

00:54:32.780 Yeah.

00:54:33.260 So he's 100% right.

00:54:35.860 But medically,

00:54:36.980 I think he's leaving

00:54:38.020 out a fact.

00:54:40.000 Medically,

00:54:40.600 he's leaving out,

00:54:41.300 I think,

00:54:41.660 a fact that you'd be

00:54:42.660 a little bit more

00:54:43.660 protected with the shot.

00:54:45.500 Now,

00:54:46.520 what if you've got

00:54:47.200 natural immunity

00:54:47.920 and you don't want

00:54:49.360 to take a risk

00:54:50.080 of a shot?

00:54:51.500 Should you have

00:54:52.140 the right

00:54:52.700 to not take

00:54:54.000 the extra risk,

00:54:55.020 no matter how small

00:54:55.840 it is,

00:54:56.220 it's your body,

00:54:58.340 do you have the right

00:54:58.980 to not get that

00:54:59.680 extra,

00:55:00.060 extra protection?

00:55:01.460 I say,

00:55:02.240 yes,

00:55:02.480 you do have

00:55:02.920 that right.

00:55:04.300 And I think

00:55:05.040 you'll all agree,

00:55:06.840 really.

00:55:09.260 All right,

00:55:09.820 here's another

00:55:10.520 little data point

00:55:14.320 that I was not aware of.

00:55:16.140 So every time

00:55:16.740 I find out

00:55:17.260 something important

00:55:18.200 that I wasn't aware of,

00:55:20.560 I'd like to pass that along

00:55:21.600 because I figure

00:55:22.140 other people

00:55:22.680 may be in the same boat.

00:55:25.400 You've heard,

00:55:26.100 of course,

00:55:26.400 about the problem

00:55:27.180 of myocarditis

00:55:28.500 in teens

00:55:29.460 and there have been,

00:55:32.160 let's see,

00:55:33.600 like 9 million teens

00:55:34.920 have been vaccinated

00:55:35.600 so far,

00:55:36.280 something like that.

00:55:37.780 So let's say

00:55:38.220 there are 9 million teens

00:55:39.280 that have been vaccinated.

00:55:40.280 How many have died

00:55:41.340 from the myocarditis?

00:55:44.460 Now,

00:55:45.000 carditis,

00:55:45.900 myocarditis.

00:55:47.320 How many teens

00:55:48.920 in the United States

00:55:50.200 have died

00:55:50.900 from myocarditis?

00:55:53.000 in the comments?

00:55:58.200 Some say

00:55:58.920 it doesn't matter.

00:56:00.240 It's a good question.

00:56:01.000 It doesn't matter.

00:56:02.160 I'm seeing

00:56:02.520 3,

00:56:03.300 1,

00:56:04.680 0.

00:56:05.240 0?

00:56:06.840 Who says 0?

00:56:08.320 It's like the biggest story

00:56:09.320 in the country.

00:56:10.720 And you think

00:56:11.140 0 people have died from it

00:56:12.540 and we're making it

00:56:13.220 the biggest story

00:56:14.000 in the country.

00:56:15.160 300,

00:56:15.900 somebody says.

00:56:20.140 All right,

00:56:20.660 let me tell you

00:56:21.120 how many people

00:56:21.720 got myocarditis

00:56:24.080 out of the 9 million.

00:56:24.960 It was like

00:56:25.320 400 something.

00:56:27.400 All right,

00:56:27.620 so knowing that

00:56:28.200 400 people

00:56:29.160 got the symptoms,

00:56:31.120 how many of the

00:56:32.660 400 died?

00:56:36.980 The answer is 0.

00:56:39.480 The answer is 0.

00:56:41.140 And that

00:56:41.700 basically

00:56:43.620 every one of them

00:56:44.460 is better in a day

00:56:45.420 because they know

00:56:46.460 how to treat it.

00:56:48.480 They're better in a day.

00:56:49.520 He says,

00:56:52.480 I know somebody

00:56:53.200 who died.

00:56:54.680 Were they a teen

00:56:55.620 of myocarditis?

00:56:58.360 So,

00:56:59.220 yeah,

00:56:59.580 we always have to

00:57:00.520 question the statistics.

00:57:01.820 But at the moment,

00:57:02.660 it looks like

00:57:03.200 it hasn't killed anybody.

00:57:04.740 Now,

00:57:05.280 none were fatal.

00:57:08.460 Now,

00:57:08.680 that doesn't mean

00:57:09.300 that they weren't

00:57:09.940 damaged,

00:57:10.580 right?

00:57:11.500 I'm not saying

00:57:12.240 you shouldn't worry

00:57:12.840 about it.

00:57:14.480 You know,

00:57:14.720 if I get,

00:57:15.660 trust me,

00:57:16.300 if I get myocarditis

00:57:18.340 after a vaccination,

00:57:20.540 I'm going to be

00:57:21.600 pretty fucking pissed.

00:57:22.540 I'm sorry.

00:57:23.440 I'm going to be

00:57:23.820 pretty mad.

00:57:25.780 And I'm going to,

00:57:27.180 you know,

00:57:27.440 wish I hadn't

00:57:28.160 and all that.

00:57:29.860 So,

00:57:30.260 yeah,

00:57:30.400 it's a big deal.

00:57:31.660 But keep it in context.

00:57:34.260 Right?

00:57:34.560 It's a big deal,

00:57:35.600 but maybe not as big

00:57:36.780 as you thought.

00:57:38.260 Still important.

00:57:41.660 All right.

00:57:42.280 All right.

00:57:42.300 that is just about

00:57:47.140 everything I wanted

00:57:47.980 to talk about today.

00:57:49.640 Scott,

00:57:50.140 you might be dead.

00:57:51.160 It's nasty stuff.

00:57:54.060 Maybe.

00:57:54.660 Yeah,

00:57:54.900 at my age,

00:57:55.640 it would probably

00:57:56.000 be a lot more dangerous,

00:57:56.960 huh?

00:58:01.340 That's exactly

00:58:02.120 what Scott's saying.

00:58:03.220 He's trying to

00:58:03.840 backpedal right now.

00:58:05.660 Watch him,

00:58:06.120 why,

00:58:06.400 and watch his hands.

00:58:08.440 See,

00:58:08.780 Ellen,

00:58:09.200 what am I

00:58:09.620 backpedaling on?

00:58:11.580 You know,

00:58:12.140 most of the

00:58:12.820 criticism that I get

00:58:14.040 on this topic

00:58:15.000 and others

00:58:15.480 falls into the

00:58:16.840 category of

00:58:17.660 somebody imagined

00:58:18.740 I used to say

00:58:19.600 something different

00:58:20.300 and now I'm

00:58:21.040 changing my mind.

00:58:26.400 You have a

00:58:27.340 natural instinct

00:58:28.180 for Bayes'

00:58:28.920 theorem,

00:58:29.340 okay?

00:58:35.800 Scott,

00:58:36.400 how much fentanyl

00:58:37.220 does your iPhone

00:58:38.080 subsidize?

00:58:39.500 So you're going

00:58:40.120 only after those

00:58:40.920 Chinese companies

00:58:41.720 you're not

00:58:42.220 a shareholder.

00:58:43.740 So I've

00:58:44.180 answered this

00:58:44.680 question and

00:58:45.740 I'll answer it

00:58:46.720 again.

00:58:46.880 It's a fair

00:58:47.320 question.

00:58:48.420 So as you

00:58:49.320 know,

00:58:49.680 I'd like to

00:58:51.000 decouple our

00:58:51.760 business from

00:58:52.360 China and I

00:58:53.180 would like us

00:58:53.640 to buy the

00:58:54.960 fewest amount

00:58:55.740 of Chinese-made

00:58:56.780 goods that we

00:58:57.580 can.

00:58:58.460 But I have an

00:58:59.020 iPhone and

00:59:00.460 pretty much half

00:59:02.520 of my environment

00:59:03.140 is Chinese goods.

00:59:04.820 So how do I

00:59:05.920 explain that?

00:59:06.980 And the way I

00:59:08.440 explain it is

00:59:08.900 quite easily.

00:59:10.260 You do

00:59:10.920 practical things

00:59:11.940 and you don't

00:59:13.320 do impractical

00:59:14.340 things.

00:59:14.760 That's it.

00:59:16.020 Who would

00:59:16.580 disagree with

00:59:17.340 the following

00:59:17.840 statement?

00:59:19.060 You should do

00:59:19.940 things that are

00:59:20.600 practical and

00:59:21.840 also good,

00:59:23.000 but you should

00:59:23.900 not do things

00:59:24.560 that are

00:59:24.860 impractical,

00:59:26.360 even if

00:59:27.360 hypothetically

00:59:28.000 they were

00:59:28.420 practical,

00:59:29.080 they'd be

00:59:29.360 good.

00:59:30.160 It is

00:59:30.900 practical to

00:59:31.880 prevent new

00:59:32.520 business from

00:59:33.100 going to

00:59:33.500 China.

00:59:33.840 It is not

00:59:36.600 practical to

00:59:37.960 uproot companies

00:59:39.120 that are

00:59:39.820 gigantic parts

00:59:40.860 of the

00:59:41.140 American economy

00:59:42.020 and at the

00:59:44.280 moment they

00:59:44.960 require,

00:59:45.740 let's say,

00:59:46.840 assembly in

00:59:47.480 China.

00:59:48.440 So I don't

00:59:49.460 judge Apple

00:59:50.200 and Tesla by

00:59:50.980 the same

00:59:51.340 standard.

00:59:52.000 I would judge

00:59:52.620 some company

00:59:53.500 that decided

00:59:54.140 to open a

00:59:55.140 new factory

00:59:55.740 there tomorrow.

00:59:58.220 So I've

00:59:59.080 never put them

00:59:59.660 in the same

01:00:00.080 category.

01:00:01.600 So no matter

01:00:02.260 how many times

01:00:02.940 you ask me,

01:00:03.840 am I

01:00:04.720 comfortable

01:00:05.100 with my

01:00:05.620 iPhone,

01:00:06.100 I'm always

01:00:06.400 going to

01:00:06.600 give you

01:00:06.800 the same

01:00:07.100 answer.

01:00:08.040 No.

01:00:09.640 No, I'm

01:00:10.300 not comfortable

01:00:10.860 with it one

01:00:11.860 bit.

01:00:13.620 But it

01:00:14.640 isn't practical

01:00:15.420 to change it

01:00:16.060 quickly.

01:00:17.060 It might be

01:00:17.540 practical in the

01:00:18.220 long run,

01:00:18.720 and I hope,

01:00:19.680 and I trust.

01:00:20.740 I trust Apple's

01:00:21.680 actually doing

01:00:22.220 that, by the

01:00:22.720 way.

01:00:23.340 I trust that

01:00:24.000 they're looking

01:00:24.380 at their

01:00:24.740 options and

01:00:25.380 trying to

01:00:25.700 figure out

01:00:26.080 what to do.

01:00:27.520 But the

01:00:29.320 way to build

01:00:29.800 it in the

01:00:30.120 United States

01:00:30.620 is probably

01:00:31.000 with robots,

01:00:32.200 not people,

01:00:32.840 so it's

01:00:33.760 not like

01:00:34.080 it's going

01:00:34.360 to boost

01:00:34.840 employment if

01:00:35.520 they move

01:00:35.820 it over

01:00:36.080 here.

01:00:36.400 But it

01:00:36.580 will at

01:00:36.780 least get

01:00:36.980 it out

01:00:37.180 in China.

01:00:39.400 I'm being

01:00:39.920 a little

01:00:40.160 too nice

01:00:40.720 to Apple

01:00:41.180 and Tesla.

01:00:42.040 Well,

01:00:43.100 nice isn't

01:00:43.680 really an

01:00:45.300 operative

01:00:45.900 thing here.

01:00:47.880 And by the

01:00:48.220 way, I should

01:00:48.760 say, as

01:00:50.580 I've said

01:00:50.860 before, I do

01:00:51.700 own stock

01:00:52.360 in both

01:00:53.560 Apple and

01:00:54.120 Tesla.

01:00:55.380 Now, one

01:00:55.720 of the reasons

01:00:56.080 I own stock

01:00:56.760 with them is

01:00:57.220 that they're

01:00:57.560 just monsters.

01:00:58.860 They're both

01:01:00.240 just monsters.

01:01:01.800 And when I

01:01:03.660 invest in

01:01:04.200 things, it's

01:01:04.680 not because I

01:01:05.600 love them.

01:01:06.960 I don't invest

01:01:07.940 in things I

01:01:08.440 love.

01:01:09.580 I invest in

01:01:10.200 things that

01:01:10.660 look like they

01:01:11.180 can't possibly

01:01:11.980 lose money

01:01:12.580 because they've

01:01:13.340 got some

01:01:13.700 kind of

01:01:14.140 monopoly-like

01:01:15.540 control of

01:01:16.640 things or

01:01:17.100 they're doing

01:01:17.520 something right.

01:01:18.780 So investment

01:01:19.420 is not about

01:01:20.160 what is right

01:01:22.460 or wrong.

01:01:24.800 Nice means

01:01:25.780 gullible.

01:01:26.260 Well, what

01:01:28.060 exactly would

01:01:29.200 be the

01:01:29.500 example of

01:01:30.000 what I'm

01:01:30.280 gullible about?

01:01:31.720 Do you

01:01:32.160 think it's

01:01:32.520 practical for

01:01:33.620 them to

01:01:33.920 just pull

01:01:34.700 out?

01:01:36.060 You wouldn't

01:01:36.720 have a

01:01:37.020 phone.

01:01:39.060 Do I own

01:01:39.660 a Dilbert

01:01:40.140 desk calendar?

01:01:41.100 Same problem.

01:01:43.120 Even my

01:01:44.320 products, the

01:01:45.040 Dilbert desk

01:01:45.540 calendars, are

01:01:46.180 printed in

01:01:47.020 China.

01:01:48.060 Now, am I

01:01:49.560 happy about

01:01:50.020 that?

01:01:51.240 Nope.

01:01:52.420 Do you

01:01:52.680 know where

01:01:52.920 the other

01:01:53.360 places you

01:01:53.940 can print a

01:01:54.500 Dilbert

01:01:54.740 calendar are?

01:01:55.380 Economically?

01:01:58.040 Neither do

01:01:58.500 I.

01:01:59.100 I have no

01:01:59.660 idea.

01:02:00.160 I have no

01:02:00.780 idea where

01:02:01.280 we go.

01:02:02.460 But it's

01:02:02.940 also by

01:02:04.700 preference and

01:02:05.860 by contract,

01:02:06.680 I don't make

01:02:07.100 those decisions.

01:02:09.120 So the

01:02:09.660 decisions on

01:02:10.280 where the

01:02:10.840 publisher

01:02:11.820 prints is

01:02:13.540 out of my

01:02:14.380 company's

01:02:16.100 control.

01:02:19.220 Coinbase HR

01:02:20.180 policy is

01:02:20.940 better than,

01:02:21.980 yeah, I

01:02:22.260 don't know

01:02:22.480 what that

01:02:22.740 means.

01:02:24.360 Try India.

01:02:25.380 I wonder

01:02:28.500 why India

01:02:28.940 doesn't have

01:02:29.360 more

01:02:29.540 manufacturing.

01:02:32.060 Actually, can

01:02:32.640 somebody answer

01:02:33.120 that question?

01:02:34.440 Why is it

01:02:35.060 that India

01:02:35.600 with massive

01:02:36.640 amounts of

01:02:37.240 potential

01:02:37.700 employment and

01:02:39.040 pretty good

01:02:40.000 education system

01:02:40.960 and all

01:02:41.200 that?

01:02:44.620 Somebody

01:02:45.140 says they

01:02:45.560 do textiles.

01:02:46.840 But why

01:02:47.340 isn't India

01:02:47.960 just massively

01:02:48.980 competing with

01:02:49.840 China?

01:02:50.320 Because wouldn't

01:02:51.080 you give all

01:02:51.700 of your

01:02:51.940 business to

01:02:52.460 India?

01:02:52.680 India, if

01:02:53.740 you had a

01:02:54.040 choice, same

01:02:54.800 price, Indian

01:02:56.860 manufacturer or

01:02:57.980 Chinese, you

01:02:58.680 would take

01:02:59.000 Indian every

01:02:59.560 time, wouldn't

01:03:00.040 you?

01:03:01.220 Because they're

01:03:01.920 an ally, in

01:03:04.360 a way.

01:03:06.580 The electric

01:03:07.400 grid.

01:03:08.040 Somebody says

01:03:08.540 they can't do

01:03:09.120 manufacturing because

01:03:10.040 they're electric

01:03:10.560 grid.

01:03:11.020 I don't know.

01:03:13.880 That's an

01:03:15.060 interesting point,

01:03:16.320 but I don't

01:03:16.680 know.

01:03:17.460 I mean, China's

01:03:18.040 got problems with

01:03:18.680 their electric

01:03:19.120 grid.

01:03:19.460 They do it.

01:03:19.860 Lack of

01:03:21.320 natural resources.

01:03:22.700 I don't know.

01:03:25.600 They could do

01:03:26.260 assembly.

01:03:28.120 So assembly

01:03:28.840 would still

01:03:29.260 work.

01:03:32.580 Look at

01:03:32.980 this.

01:03:34.120 Vlad says,

01:03:35.040 Scott, so

01:03:35.780 much basic

01:03:36.440 stuff you

01:03:36.960 don't know.

01:03:37.980 Just like in

01:03:38.640 the case of

01:03:39.100 narcissists.

01:03:40.240 How can I

01:03:40.820 send information

01:03:41.460 to you?

01:03:42.280 Well, Vlad,

01:03:42.760 you are a

01:03:43.240 narcissist.

01:03:45.320 So I don't

01:03:46.000 want to hear a

01:03:46.520 fucking thing

01:03:46.980 from you,

01:03:47.360 actually.

01:03:48.340 You sound

01:03:48.940 like a jerk.

01:03:49.860 Now, if

01:03:52.460 you could

01:03:52.740 find a

01:03:53.200 way to

01:03:54.680 be less

01:03:55.620 of a

01:03:56.660 flaming

01:03:57.220 jerk,

01:03:58.540 then I'm

01:03:58.980 always interested

01:03:59.520 in seeing

01:03:59.920 things that

01:04:00.520 don't agree

01:04:01.200 with my

01:04:01.680 opinions.

01:04:08.320 Would

01:04:08.800 India have

01:04:09.380 been better

01:04:09.820 off had

01:04:10.300 they stayed

01:04:10.760 part of the

01:04:11.300 British Empire?

01:04:13.260 That's not

01:04:13.920 a fair

01:04:14.240 question.

01:04:15.420 People need

01:04:16.140 their freedom

01:04:16.680 too.

01:04:17.980 How do you

01:04:18.440 value that?

01:04:19.860 Tata makes

01:04:23.000 more cars

01:04:23.580 than any

01:04:23.900 other?

01:04:24.140 Is that

01:04:24.340 true?

01:04:25.900 Tata is

01:04:26.520 bigger than

01:04:26.920 GM.

01:04:27.280 That's an

01:04:27.700 Indian car

01:04:28.360 company.

01:04:29.140 I didn't

01:04:29.420 know that.

01:04:30.940 Well,

01:04:31.580 India has

01:04:34.460 really low

01:04:34.960 quality and

01:04:35.820 the regulations

01:04:36.420 are insane.

01:04:37.460 Are you

01:04:37.780 telling me that

01:04:38.320 China doesn't

01:04:38.940 have insane

01:04:39.440 regulations?

01:04:41.020 It doesn't

01:04:41.760 seem like

01:04:42.120 anything they

01:04:42.600 can't solve.

01:04:43.400 Why not

01:04:49.020 come down

01:04:49.420 on Mexico

01:04:49.980 for fentanyl?

01:04:50.880 Are you

01:04:51.120 kidding?

01:04:52.520 I'm being

01:04:52.920 asked why

01:04:53.700 I don't

01:04:54.020 come down

01:04:54.440 on Mexico

01:04:55.020 for the

01:04:55.580 fentanyl?

01:04:57.740 Apparently

01:04:58.240 you've not

01:04:58.660 watched me

01:04:59.120 for very

01:04:59.480 long.

01:05:00.540 I'm in

01:05:01.180 favor of

01:05:01.660 droning

01:05:02.080 the cartels.

01:05:05.140 Can I

01:05:06.060 be any

01:05:06.780 harder than

01:05:07.540 that?

01:05:08.100 I'm in

01:05:08.560 favor of

01:05:09.060 killing the

01:05:10.080 top fentanyl

01:05:11.300 dealer in

01:05:11.940 China, where

01:05:13.260 he lives in

01:05:13.880 China, and

01:05:14.660 even telling

01:05:15.180 China we

01:05:15.620 did it.

01:05:16.500 I wouldn't

01:05:17.160 even keep it

01:05:17.580 a secret.

01:05:18.820 Now we

01:05:19.240 probably

01:05:19.440 couldn't use

01:05:19.920 a drone in

01:05:20.680 China, but

01:05:21.880 if we could

01:05:22.360 find out

01:05:22.860 some way to

01:05:23.700 kill that

01:05:24.080 guy and

01:05:25.100 just say,

01:05:25.740 look, China,

01:05:26.220 we gave you

01:05:27.180 a year.

01:05:28.320 We gave you

01:05:29.140 his name,

01:05:29.800 his address,

01:05:31.020 all the

01:05:31.600 evidence of

01:05:32.040 the crime,

01:05:33.040 and we

01:05:33.300 gave you a

01:05:33.780 year to

01:05:34.160 fix it.

01:05:35.280 And then

01:05:35.820 we killed

01:05:36.200 him, and

01:05:37.740 we'll do

01:05:38.040 it again.

01:05:39.900 We shouldn't

01:05:40.540 have any

01:05:40.960 apology for

01:05:41.640 that.

01:05:42.780 Likewise,

01:05:43.560 with the

01:05:43.820 cartels, if

01:05:45.180 we decide to

01:05:45.740 just drone

01:05:46.240 the cartels

01:05:47.080 because of

01:05:48.800 the drug

01:05:49.360 business, I'm

01:05:51.860 okay with

01:05:52.220 that.

01:05:52.840 Is that

01:05:53.460 hard enough?

01:05:54.480 Is murdering

01:05:55.420 them where

01:05:55.760 they stand

01:05:56.360 not strong

01:05:57.480 enough for

01:05:57.840 you?

01:06:00.500 All right.

01:06:04.200 Drone

01:06:04.720 attack the

01:06:05.260 CEO of

01:06:05.720 McDonald's?

01:06:06.340 Well, again,

01:06:08.160 they're illegal

01:06:09.320 products.

01:06:09.800 You think

01:06:12.000 Trump was

01:06:12.500 angling

01:06:13.360 toward India

01:06:13.940 as a

01:06:14.200 replacement

01:06:14.500 for China?

01:06:15.140 Well, yes,

01:06:16.460 certainly in

01:06:17.080 a strategic

01:06:17.720 sense.

01:06:20.280 Why doesn't

01:06:21.120 America have

01:06:21.740 quick detection

01:06:22.600 COVID strips?

01:06:23.520 I'm afraid to

01:06:26.360 tell you the

01:06:26.800 answer to that

01:06:27.320 question because

01:06:27.880 I think I

01:06:28.400 know it.

01:06:29.320 It's

01:06:29.560 corruption.

01:06:31.580 I don't

01:06:32.500 know the

01:06:32.820 details, but

01:06:34.480 I would place

01:06:35.800 a large bet

01:06:36.760 that if you

01:06:38.220 dug down into

01:06:39.100 the approval

01:06:39.680 process of

01:06:40.740 quick COVID

01:06:41.780 tests, you

01:06:43.040 would eventually

01:06:43.560 find somebody

01:06:44.440 with a

01:06:45.140 pharmaceutical

01:06:45.860 connection

01:06:46.660 that's a

01:06:48.420 problem.

01:06:50.980 So that's

01:06:53.760 all I'm

01:06:54.060 going to

01:06:54.220 say because

01:06:55.260 we don't

01:06:55.980 have any

01:06:56.540 explanation

01:06:57.220 for why

01:07:00.020 we haven't

01:07:00.640 done it.

01:07:02.440 Right?

01:07:03.480 Because you

01:07:04.020 would hear an

01:07:04.440 alternate

01:07:04.740 explanation unless

01:07:05.800 it was

01:07:06.080 corruption.

01:07:06.860 You would

01:07:07.120 hear an

01:07:07.360 alternate

01:07:07.640 explanation.

01:07:08.180 Oh, these

01:07:08.760 rapid test

01:07:09.800 strips, they

01:07:10.240 have a

01:07:10.520 problem, or

01:07:11.380 we'd love to

01:07:12.420 make them, but

01:07:13.000 we can't get

01:07:13.480 the precursors,

01:07:14.560 or we'd love

01:07:15.520 to make them,

01:07:16.020 but we don't

01:07:16.460 have the

01:07:16.760 manufacturing

01:07:17.300 capacity, or

01:07:18.260 we'd love to

01:07:19.220 make them, but

01:07:19.800 it's not as

01:07:20.300 good as you

01:07:20.700 think, or

01:07:21.320 we'd love to

01:07:21.800 make them, but

01:07:22.340 they're not as

01:07:22.860 safe, or it

01:07:23.440 caused some

01:07:23.840 other problem.

01:07:25.540 Have you

01:07:25.880 heard anything

01:07:26.260 like that?

01:07:28.300 No.

01:07:29.520 Nope.

01:07:30.480 You haven't.

01:07:31.260 And if you

01:07:31.820 haven't heard any

01:07:32.800 reasonable

01:07:33.740 counter-argument,

01:07:35.080 and you

01:07:35.360 haven't, you've

01:07:36.260 heard no

01:07:36.680 counter-argument,

01:07:38.020 it's got to

01:07:38.460 be corruption.

01:07:39.720 Process of

01:07:40.400 elimination.

01:07:42.300 If you know

01:07:43.120 it's a good

01:07:43.560 thing, it's

01:07:44.740 public, the

01:07:45.800 public knows

01:07:46.420 it's a good

01:07:46.800 thing.

01:07:47.360 I mean, a

01:07:47.680 lot of us

01:07:48.020 do.

01:07:48.820 It's been

01:07:49.460 promoted, there's

01:07:51.300 been testimony to

01:07:52.460 Congress, people

01:07:53.640 have told them

01:07:54.220 exactly why it's

01:07:55.060 good, there's

01:07:56.120 zero argument on

01:07:57.100 the other side,

01:07:58.240 and it doesn't

01:07:58.640 happen.

01:08:00.080 It's got to be

01:08:00.900 corruption.

01:08:01.740 There's no

01:08:02.320 explanation left.

01:08:05.880 And has the

01:08:06.920 media looked into

01:08:07.640 it?

01:08:07.800 Have you seen

01:08:09.560 any stories by a

01:08:11.180 major media entity

01:08:12.320 saying, we looked

01:08:13.700 into why the U.S.

01:08:14.880 doesn't have

01:08:15.380 rapid tests, and

01:08:16.300 here's what we

01:08:16.860 found?

01:08:18.200 If you've seen

01:08:19.120 that, send it to

01:08:19.940 me, because I

01:08:21.080 don't think I've

01:08:21.700 seen it.

01:08:22.600 You know the

01:08:23.040 dog that's not

01:08:23.740 barking?

01:08:24.680 The dog that's

01:08:25.640 not barking is a

01:08:27.300 story about why we

01:08:28.640 don't have those

01:08:29.400 test strips.

01:08:31.720 Now, I know that in

01:08:33.000 the beginning we had

01:08:33.720 some crappy regular

01:08:35.280 tests, PCR tests or

01:08:37.460 whatever, but that's a

01:08:38.480 different story, that

01:08:40.220 those tests have

01:08:41.040 nothing to do with

01:08:41.760 what we're talking

01:08:42.340 about, the rapid

01:08:42.940 tests.

01:08:43.280 The reason we

01:08:44.280 don't have those

01:08:45.060 and other countries

01:08:45.800 do, it's not

01:08:48.340 money, it's not

01:08:49.500 resources, it's not

01:08:50.640 intelligence, it's

01:08:51.520 not data, it's not

01:08:53.240 policy, it's nothing.

01:08:56.900 Literally, we have

01:08:57.940 not been told why we

01:09:00.040 didn't do it, and

01:09:01.860 are still not doing

01:09:02.600 it, at a scale that

01:09:03.840 would make sense.

01:09:05.260 It's got to be

01:09:05.960 corruption.

01:09:07.500 Do you have

01:09:08.140 another theory?

01:09:09.860 Because if it's not

01:09:10.760 corruption, they

01:09:11.440 would tell us the

01:09:12.120 other reason.

01:09:14.260 Right?

01:09:19.740 Anyway, I think we

01:09:21.340 have to assume

01:09:22.620 corruption to force

01:09:23.840 the government to

01:09:24.580 communicate correctly.

01:09:26.380 If the only problem

01:09:28.180 is they haven't

01:09:28.800 communicated their

01:09:29.740 objection, well,

01:09:31.160 that's a big

01:09:31.660 problem, right?

01:09:33.740 They need to

01:09:34.440 communicate that

01:09:35.180 objection so we

01:09:36.220 can know we have

01:09:36.820 some trust in our

01:09:38.260 government.

01:09:38.600 government.

01:09:39.000 Right now, you

01:09:39.620 have to assume no

01:09:40.480 trust, and you

01:09:42.220 have to assume

01:09:42.900 corruption.

01:09:44.480 That's got to be the

01:09:45.280 default assumption,

01:09:46.720 and I'd love to be

01:09:47.660 talked out of it.

01:09:49.080 Ideally, we get

01:09:50.040 talked out of it.

01:09:51.340 Not seeing it

01:09:51.900 happen.

01:09:53.620 All right.

01:09:54.760 That is my show for

01:09:56.300 today.

01:09:57.140 Sorry there's too much

01:09:57.980 COVID stuff in there.

01:09:59.180 I know.

01:09:59.720 I tried to leave it to

01:10:00.380 the end.

01:10:01.160 But there wasn't much

01:10:01.900 happening otherwise.

01:10:03.400 And I will talk to

01:10:04.840 you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 02, 2021

Episode 1517 Scott Adams： Headlines and Coffee Go Together Perfectly. Come Join Us.

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