Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1519 Scott Adams： I Overslept, So God Knows What You're Going to See This Morning, But it Will Be Awesome

00:00:00.000 Well, good morning, everybody, and welcome to Coffee with Scott Adams, the overslept version.

00:00:12.140 Do you ever have one of those days where you wake up and for some reason it's an hour later

00:00:18.660 than it's supposed to be, and it has nothing to do with what your brain decided, your body

00:00:24.680 just decided while you're sleeping, you know what, I'm not going to let you in.

00:00:30.380 I'm just not going to let you wake up.

00:00:33.100 So after, I don't know, something like, I think at least a week, maybe more than a week, where

00:00:41.380 I haven't gotten more than three to four hours a night.

00:00:45.080 Now, I normally don't sleep a lot.

00:00:48.260 Five is usually good.

00:00:50.100 If I get five or six, I'm oversleeping.

00:00:54.660 But around four or three, I start getting a little crazy.

00:01:00.780 And I was getting a little bit crazy because I had to do the cat feedings every six hours

00:01:07.020 and everything.

00:01:07.380 But this morning, this morning, my brain and my body decided, you know, your alarm is going

00:01:16.340 to go off and you're just not going to get up today.

00:01:19.940 I'm just not going to let you.

00:01:21.320 So my body and my brain just didn't let me get up.

00:01:24.660 So I'm a little less prepared than normal.

00:01:26.660 But is it going to matter?

00:01:27.980 No, no, because already you're feeling better, aren't you?

00:01:33.400 Right?

00:01:34.320 As soon as I was a little bit late, did you say to yourself, oh, no, oh, no, it's a little

00:01:40.780 bit late.

00:01:42.080 What's going on?

00:01:43.380 But don't worry.

00:01:44.820 I'm here.

00:01:45.800 And that means that you are about to experience the unparalleled pleasure.

00:01:50.680 And all you need is a cover mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug

00:01:55.200 or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:01:57.200 Now, when I say stein, it does not include Mark stein.

00:02:02.080 Now, you have to have a vessel that you can put liquid in that you can drink out of.

00:02:06.720 If you try to put liquid into Mark stein, well, you'll get it in.

00:02:11.840 But good luck getting it out in a form you want to drink, if you know what I mean.

00:02:15.540 So don't do that.

00:02:16.420 Get the handheld kind of a stein.

00:02:19.320 And then fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:02:20.960 I like coffee.

00:02:23.040 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day.

00:02:27.680 The thing that makes everything better.

00:02:29.320 And you know it does.

00:02:30.720 You know it does.

00:02:32.560 You know it.

00:02:33.780 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and it's going to happen now.

00:02:36.800 Go.

00:02:41.900 Oh.

00:02:44.440 I can feel the coffee now flowing into all of my corbustles.

00:02:51.480 Yeah, every one of my corbustles.

00:02:54.840 And I've got a lot of corbustles.

00:02:57.200 Well, the most fun story today is that William Shatner will be on the Jeff Bezos Blue Origin spaceship to visit space.

00:03:08.260 Is that the coolest story ever?

00:03:10.820 That William Shatner, famous, of course, from Star Trek.

00:03:14.040 He's 90 years old, and he's going to space.

00:03:19.100 He's actually going to space.

00:03:21.220 William Shatner.

00:03:22.100 Everything about that story I like.

00:03:25.100 But can I take a point of personal privilege for a moment?

00:03:31.140 Can I talk about something that has nothing to do with you?

00:03:34.320 It's just about me.

00:03:39.700 If you're in my age range, you know, give or take a lot of different years,

00:03:45.820 William Shatner is one of your main, I don't know, main icons from your childhood.

00:03:51.480 One of the most important people that I've ever, you know, cared about in terms of a celebrity.

00:03:59.100 And one day on Twitter, somebody tweeted something at him,

00:04:02.080 and he referred to me as Dilbert's dad.

00:04:06.380 And I said to myself, what?

00:04:11.380 William Shatner knows who I am?

00:04:14.360 I don't know if I've had a cooler professional moment than seeing on Twitter a reference to the fact that William Shatner somehow knew who I was.

00:04:26.480 I've never been so happy in my life.

00:04:30.040 You know, and you've observed enough to know that I have an interesting life.

00:04:34.680 So it's not like I haven't met lots of famous people.

00:04:37.880 But for some reason, the fact that William Shatner knew my name, or knew what I did for a living anyway,

00:04:46.120 was just mind-blowing to me.

00:04:48.140 So that's just about me.

00:04:49.680 I'm sorry, that wasn't about any of you.

00:04:51.620 Let's get back to you.

00:04:53.660 Enough about me.

00:04:55.280 Let's talk about you some more.

00:04:58.060 So I didn't see this on 60 Minutes, but apparently there's a Facebook whistleblower

00:05:02.180 who's saying some pretty damning stuff.

00:05:06.040 Pretty damning stuff.

00:05:09.940 Apparently, let's see, apparently on January 6th-ish,

00:05:14.760 Facebook made a conscious decision to turn off the filters on fake news.

00:05:22.520 What?

00:05:23.120 They turned it off.

00:05:26.760 So apparently, or at least the accusation is, that January 6th might not have happened,

00:05:33.000 or at least maybe it was accelerated or worsened in some way,

00:05:37.240 by the fact that Facebook stopped monitoring what it was presenting.

00:05:46.560 Now, shouldn't it have been off all the time?

00:05:50.180 Why was it ever on?

00:05:54.460 If it was okay to turn it off, why was it ever on?

00:05:59.680 Right?

00:06:01.220 What's the difference between after the election and before the election?

00:06:06.360 Who won?

00:06:07.940 That's the difference.

00:06:09.480 The difference is who won.

00:06:13.380 Isn't this telling us that Facebook rigged the election

00:06:16.080 by changing the algorithm to one thing before you voted

00:06:19.540 and then immediately changing it to whatever made them the most money after?

00:06:24.580 Did they, and it looks like the whistleblower is suggesting this,

00:06:29.000 did they give up some large amount of revenue intentionally

00:06:34.980 to change the results of the election?

00:06:37.880 It looks like that's exactly what they did.

00:06:41.500 It looks, now they may have, you know, conceived it differently

00:06:45.820 the way that they, you know, thought about it themselves.

00:06:49.180 They might have just said, hey, it's an election,

00:06:51.460 we better get rid of the fake news.

00:06:53.400 I mean, maybe.

00:06:54.020 If you give them the most generous interpretation,

00:06:57.000 it's that the election was important,

00:06:59.420 they didn't want it to be, you know, all fake news elections,

00:07:01.960 so they tried to get rid of the fake news

00:07:03.700 so you'd have a better, your reason to vote, you know, accurately.

00:07:07.740 But why does that thinking change after the vote?

00:07:13.680 Well, why did fake news become good for us

00:07:16.540 the moment the election was over?

00:07:20.300 Shouldn't fake news either always be bad,

00:07:23.940 or even if it's bad, we just always get to see it anyway

00:07:27.460 because of freedom of whatever?

00:07:30.640 This is pretty damning.

00:07:32.660 This is pretty damning.

00:07:34.020 You know, you've seen the Project Veritas stuff,

00:07:38.480 and that can be pretty damning,

00:07:39.720 but this does look worse.

00:07:42.760 You know, if these whistleblower complaints pan out,

00:07:46.240 I don't know if we could ever prove them,

00:07:48.440 but it's pretty bad.

00:07:51.200 So, and her allegation is that the Facebook executives

00:07:54.820 explicitly decided to make more clicks

00:07:58.580 by selling you fake news that would get you all worked up.

00:08:01.940 Intentionally, like an actual conversation,

00:08:05.320 and then they decided to make more money

00:08:07.640 instead of making you happy and having a good life.

00:08:13.440 It's almost too, it's almost hard to believe.

00:08:18.720 And what she said was specifically,

00:08:20.620 her name is Haugen, I guess, H-A-U-G-E-N.

00:08:23.660 She said the version of Facebook that exists today

00:08:27.520 is tearing our societies apart

00:08:29.860 and causing ethnic violence around the world.

00:08:33.940 That's pretty bad.

00:08:35.980 Now let me ask you this.

00:08:38.480 Why do we regulate medicine and drugs?

00:08:44.640 Why does the government regulate medicine and drugs?

00:08:48.600 It's to prevent harm, right?

00:08:50.580 I mean, that's the only reason.

00:08:51.420 They do it to prevent harm.

00:08:54.960 Why don't they regulate social media algorithms?

00:09:01.220 Does the social media algorithm have the potential

00:09:04.220 to create harm, specifically death and revolutions

00:09:08.420 and January 6th protests and everything else?

00:09:12.300 Can they do that with an algorithm?

00:09:14.860 Can an algorithm change an election?

00:09:17.760 Can an algorithm change your mind?

00:09:19.400 Can it cause a fight?

00:09:20.500 Can it cause ethnic cleansing?

00:09:22.400 Can it do all those things?

00:09:23.740 An algorithm.

00:09:25.940 Yeah, it can.

00:09:27.700 Yeah.

00:09:28.900 Is there anybody here who thinks it can't?

00:09:31.300 If you think it can't, you haven't been paying attention.

00:09:35.640 Brainwashing is really sophisticated now.

00:09:38.800 I mean, it used to be.

00:09:40.300 I mean, it always existed.

00:09:41.560 There were always people trying to fool you one way or another

00:09:43.560 or con you one way or another.

00:09:44.720 But they weren't good at it.

00:09:46.620 You need the technical power of zillions of messages

00:09:51.680 and being able to test it in real time and all that

00:09:54.740 to get to a really commercial-grade AI

00:09:58.660 that really affects your brain,

00:10:00.720 at least affects it in a specific way.

00:10:03.360 So, I feel like we have to have the conversation

00:10:09.560 about regulating algorithms, right?

00:10:14.340 Just for consistency.

00:10:16.100 If we regulate drugs,

00:10:18.640 usually because the drugs affect your brain or body, right?

00:10:22.920 But if there were a drug that made you vote differently,

00:10:29.080 would it be legal?

00:10:31.660 Suppose a pharmaceutical developed a drug

00:10:35.260 that could turn a Republican into a Democrat.

00:10:40.020 Number one, is it technically possible?

00:10:45.300 I mean, there's a question for you.

00:10:47.100 So, scientifically speaking,

00:10:51.160 would it be technically possible

00:10:53.060 to develop a pill

00:10:54.840 that would turn a Republican into a Democrat?

00:11:00.800 Yes.

00:11:04.020 Undoubtedly, yes.

00:11:05.720 No doubt about it.

00:11:07.460 Now, I'm not saying it would work on every person, right?

00:11:10.800 The same way an algorithm

00:11:11.940 doesn't influence every person the same way.

00:11:13.840 The same way every drug

00:11:14.980 doesn't influence people the same way.

00:11:17.100 Some people just don't respond to some drugs.

00:11:20.020 But, yeah, you could do some damage.

00:11:27.300 So, I think we have to look at

00:11:29.740 the question of regulating algorithms

00:11:32.280 because they do reprogram our brains.

00:11:35.340 And if the exact thing that an algorithm can do,

00:11:39.720 which is maybe change your vote,

00:11:41.420 if you had a pill that did that,

00:11:44.900 and you could,

00:11:45.840 pretty sure you could,

00:11:48.220 it wouldn't be legal.

00:11:51.760 It wouldn't be legal.

00:11:53.840 If that's all it did.

00:11:55.440 Now, let me go further

00:11:56.540 and really get provocative.

00:12:00.560 Don't you think that,

00:12:01.840 let's say Democrats sweep everything

00:12:05.640 and they own the Congress and the presidency

00:12:07.760 and they even take over the Supreme Court

00:12:10.380 in terms of the majority someday.

00:12:14.140 Could they ever tell you

00:12:15.760 that being a Republican

00:12:17.580 is a medical problem?

00:12:23.280 Is that possible?

00:12:24.820 Is it possible that there would ever be

00:12:26.980 an administration

00:12:28.820 that would treat Republicanism

00:12:31.760 as a mental disorder

00:12:33.440 that could be treated with a pill?

00:12:37.060 Totally yes.

00:12:38.640 Totally yes.

00:12:40.860 Yes with capital Y,

00:12:42.640 capital E, capital E.

00:12:43.600 Absolutely.

00:12:45.940 Absolutely could do that.

00:12:48.200 So,

00:12:49.140 I'm just asking the question.

00:12:51.500 I mean, we have to look at,

00:12:52.660 I think, FDA regulation

00:12:54.260 of anything that can program your brain.

00:12:57.020 If something can program your brain,

00:13:00.660 you need somebody to be looking at that.

00:13:03.560 You just can't let that into the wild,

00:13:05.320 just randomly programming people.

00:13:08.180 All right, well,

00:13:08.660 the CDC came out with some new recommendations

00:13:10.600 about the holidays.

00:13:13.460 And it says,

00:13:14.060 if celebrating indoors,

00:13:15.220 bring in fresh air by opening windows

00:13:17.180 and doors if possible.

00:13:19.360 And you can use a window fan

00:13:20.920 in one of the open windows

00:13:21.980 to blow air out of the windows

00:13:23.640 because it'll pull the fresh air in.

00:13:26.760 Now, this is different

00:13:27.640 than what I was talking about last week.

00:13:29.960 I was talking about a fan

00:13:31.600 even if the window is closed.

00:13:34.260 So my speculation was

00:13:35.640 that just moving the big plumes

00:13:37.840 of concentrated COVID around

00:13:39.760 would probably, you know,

00:13:42.300 distribute it

00:13:44.220 in a way that might actually reduce

00:13:46.040 the number of infections in the room

00:13:47.980 because you need a certain level

00:13:49.440 before you get there.

00:13:50.560 Now, that probably only helps

00:13:52.360 for short-term occupancy.

00:13:54.880 If you stay in a room long enough

00:13:56.560 and you've got a bunch of COVID

00:13:57.820 in the room,

00:13:59.200 if the windows are closed

00:14:00.380 and you have bad ventilation,

00:14:02.060 I don't know that a fan would help

00:14:03.880 because it's, you know,

00:14:05.220 it would just fill up

00:14:06.780 eventually with virus.

00:14:08.880 But for most situations

00:14:10.740 where people are coming and going

00:14:12.200 and there's a little bit

00:14:13.040 of ventilation,

00:14:14.200 I do wonder if just a regular fan

00:14:16.680 would work.

00:14:18.380 And here's why this is important.

00:14:19.900 We're talking about Christmas.

00:14:22.740 People aren't going to open windows

00:14:24.300 in winter.

00:14:25.900 People are not going to open the window

00:14:27.960 in the middle of the winter,

00:14:30.140 at least in most places.

00:14:31.980 I live in California.

00:14:33.600 I don't open the window

00:14:35.100 on Christmas.

00:14:37.180 I don't think one time in my life

00:14:39.060 it's been, you know,

00:14:41.240 warm enough outside

00:14:42.260 that I would open a window,

00:14:43.820 even in California.

00:14:46.480 Northern California.

00:14:47.620 Southern California, yes.

00:14:48.660 Yeah, I do in Florida.

00:14:50.360 I get that.

00:14:54.060 So,

00:14:54.640 I feel like the CDC

00:14:57.500 might be getting closer

00:14:58.820 to the Scott theory

00:15:00.480 that just moving the air around

00:15:01.740 might do something.

00:15:03.000 Now, of course,

00:15:03.620 that's, as far as I know,

00:15:04.640 untested.

00:15:06.060 So, I'd need to see.

00:15:08.800 Yeah, in Southern California,

00:15:10.160 you open the windows for sure.

00:15:14.780 So, I'd love to see

00:15:15.820 just a fan itself tested.

00:15:18.660 All right.

00:15:21.300 There is a new book coming out

00:15:23.160 and an expert

00:15:23.800 who is behind that book

00:15:26.100 who says that the Havana Syndrome,

00:15:28.820 you know,

00:15:29.040 the idea that our diplomats

00:15:32.860 were being targeted

00:15:33.620 by a secret sonic weapon.

00:15:36.380 This expert has been looking into it

00:15:37.940 for a long time

00:15:38.600 and says,

00:15:40.360 quote,

00:15:40.640 there is more evidence

00:15:41.880 for Bigfoot

00:15:42.920 than there is

00:15:44.640 for Havana Syndrome.

00:15:48.140 The U.S. expatriate

00:15:49.720 who is based,

00:15:50.740 now this is in the Daily Mail,

00:15:52.300 the Daily Mail

00:15:53.520 had this story,

00:15:54.880 is,

00:15:55.460 so he's based

00:15:56.780 in the University of Auckland

00:15:57.880 and so he's in Australia

00:16:00.580 so maybe he's a little more free

00:16:01.780 to talk about this stuff.

00:16:03.300 He said,

00:16:03.660 the evidence

00:16:04.160 overwhelmingly points

00:16:05.340 to mass hysteria

00:16:06.420 or,

00:16:07.860 as it is commonly referred

00:16:09.200 to by scientists,

00:16:11.160 mass psychogenic illness.

00:16:16.300 Havana Syndrome

00:16:17.000 is a result

00:16:17.660 of incompetent government officials

00:16:19.340 and bad science,

00:16:20.840 said this expert.

00:16:21.660 I would go so far

00:16:23.100 as to rename it

00:16:24.260 Havana Syndrome Delusion.

00:16:30.360 The absurd belief

00:16:31.420 in the wake

00:16:31.840 of persistent evidence

00:16:33.140 to the contrary

00:16:34.020 that diplomats

00:16:35.620 are being targeted

00:16:36.340 with an energy weapon.

00:16:38.760 And he said,

00:16:39.420 it is possible

00:16:40.040 to use noise as weapon

00:16:41.240 but not in the way

00:16:42.080 it was used here,

00:16:43.140 blah, blah,

00:16:43.520 because of physics

00:16:44.360 or something.

00:16:46.000 So,

00:16:48.300 are you ready

00:16:50.820 I mean,

00:16:52.180 he's an expert,

00:16:52.980 he wrote a book,

00:16:53.680 he researched it

00:16:54.520 and he said,

00:16:55.000 no,

00:16:55.260 this is just obviously

00:16:56.620 mass suggestion.

00:16:59.740 Who,

00:17:01.340 I have to brag about this.

00:17:03.640 I know you don't like it

00:17:04.800 but since this entire episode

00:17:07.460 is about

00:17:08.100 trying to figure out

00:17:10.380 how to understand the world

00:17:11.500 and predict it.

00:17:14.100 Right?

00:17:14.520 Your worldview works

00:17:16.480 if it predicts.

00:17:18.760 Have you ever heard me say that?

00:17:20.820 That's it.

00:17:22.280 If your worldview

00:17:23.500 predicts

00:17:25.280 better than

00:17:26.520 somebody else's worldview

00:17:27.780 that's as good

00:17:29.600 as you can get.

00:17:31.060 You know,

00:17:31.380 you don't know

00:17:31.740 if you have the right one.

00:17:33.300 I mean,

00:17:33.520 maybe your view of reality

00:17:34.640 is all wrong

00:17:35.300 but it predicts.

00:17:37.240 It predicts.

00:17:38.620 So,

00:17:38.960 on day one

00:17:39.420 of this story

00:17:39.980 of the Havana Syndrome

00:17:41.420 with my,

00:17:43.900 with my,

00:17:44.740 somebody has a picture

00:17:46.180 of my original

00:17:46.900 recording there.

00:17:48.100 So I said

00:17:49.360 on day one

00:17:49.960 and I believe

00:17:50.540 I'm the only public figure

00:17:51.820 who said it.

00:17:52.500 Can anybody confirm that?

00:17:54.700 That on day one,

00:17:56.360 not later,

00:17:57.760 but on day one,

00:17:59.460 I believe there was

00:18:00.120 only one public figure

00:18:01.360 who said

00:18:01.860 this is definitely

00:18:02.680 mass suggestion.

00:18:04.340 I think it was me.

00:18:05.620 I don't know

00:18:06.160 that anybody else

00:18:06.820 in the world

00:18:07.460 who is a public figure.

00:18:08.800 Some of you privately

00:18:09.740 probably said

00:18:10.320 the same thing.

00:18:11.560 Right?

00:18:11.660 Not one person

00:18:13.820 has come forward

00:18:14.500 to say this.

00:18:15.220 Even,

00:18:15.480 even now.

00:18:16.760 Even now,

00:18:17.580 you know,

00:18:17.780 so many months

00:18:18.420 have gone by

00:18:19.060 and people

00:18:19.420 didn't find any weapon.

00:18:21.140 Even now,

00:18:21.820 I don't think anybody

00:18:22.640 who is in public

00:18:23.880 is willing to say this

00:18:24.980 until this guy

00:18:25.520 wrote this book.

00:18:26.780 Now,

00:18:27.360 could the guy

00:18:27.800 who wrote the book

00:18:28.360 be wrong?

00:18:29.120 Sure.

00:18:29.960 Sure.

00:18:30.820 Am I telling you now

00:18:31.820 that we have reached

00:18:33.260 certainty?

00:18:34.980 No.

00:18:35.680 Because the world

00:18:36.340 doesn't work like that.

00:18:37.600 Every time,

00:18:38.420 let me just say

00:18:39.020 this generally.

00:18:40.240 Every time you think,

00:18:41.660 that I have achieved

00:18:42.620 100% certainty

00:18:43.980 on one of these stories

00:18:45.600 where I couldn't have

00:18:46.440 direct information,

00:18:47.740 I don't.

00:18:49.200 I don't.

00:18:49.920 Maybe sometimes

00:18:50.540 I, you know,

00:18:51.640 I give you that impression,

00:18:52.640 but I couldn't have.

00:18:53.840 So never think

00:18:54.540 in terms of 100% anything.

00:18:56.600 Just,

00:18:57.120 at this point,

00:18:58.780 I'm going to say

00:18:59.300 95% odds

00:19:00.680 that I'm right.

00:19:01.680 Maybe 95.

00:19:02.700 Could be higher.

00:19:03.680 98.

00:19:04.660 Something like that.

00:19:05.920 That's what it feels like.

00:19:07.140 I don't have anywhere

00:19:07.740 to measure that.

00:19:10.240 Well,

00:19:10.680 one of the things

00:19:11.420 I predicted-ish,

00:19:13.460 I'm not sure

00:19:13.940 this was a hard prediction,

00:19:15.680 but that the Taliban

00:19:16.920 would be

00:19:18.420 pretty hard

00:19:20.460 on not only

00:19:21.340 ISIS,

00:19:22.200 but Al-Qaeda,

00:19:23.100 that they would

00:19:23.460 just be enemies.

00:19:24.900 And sure enough,

00:19:25.480 the Taliban

00:19:25.860 completely destroyed

00:19:27.220 an ISIS-K cell.

00:19:29.660 I guess

00:19:30.180 ISIS attacked them

00:19:31.580 and they just

00:19:32.200 sent out a search

00:19:33.280 and kill party

00:19:33.920 and just wiped them out.

00:19:35.860 How much more

00:19:36.800 of that are we going to see?

00:19:37.580 I don't think

00:19:39.680 you're going to see

00:19:42.080 necessarily the Taliban

00:19:43.660 let anybody

00:19:44.700 get enough power

00:19:46.240 within Afghanistan.

00:19:49.320 Afghanistan would be

00:19:50.560 attacked again

00:19:51.160 by the United States.

00:19:53.100 My feeling is

00:19:53.980 that the Taliban

00:19:54.600 leadership has

00:19:55.500 one very big

00:19:58.240 number one priority.

00:20:00.460 Keep the United States

00:20:02.600 out of Afghanistan.

00:20:04.040 That's got to be

00:20:04.740 their top priority.

00:20:05.600 And so if that requires

00:20:07.720 wiping out ISIS

00:20:09.980 and Al-Qaeda

00:20:10.620 to do it,

00:20:11.600 I feel like

00:20:12.440 they're going to do it

00:20:13.120 just for their own

00:20:13.720 self-protection.

00:20:15.200 I don't think

00:20:16.140 that their

00:20:16.520 global ambitions

00:20:18.100 for Islam

00:20:19.800 are quite strong enough

00:20:21.240 of the Taliban

00:20:22.080 themselves

00:20:23.620 that they would let

00:20:24.360 the people

00:20:25.320 who are going to

00:20:25.700 attack America

00:20:26.360 have a strong

00:20:28.160 foothold there

00:20:28.800 if there's anything

00:20:29.440 they can do about it.

00:20:30.600 I do not believe,

00:20:32.680 of course,

00:20:33.460 this is based on

00:20:34.520 me having no

00:20:35.520 experience whatsoever

00:20:36.380 in Afghanistan,

00:20:37.560 obviously.

00:20:38.680 But it seems to me

00:20:39.820 that the Taliban

00:20:40.560 ironically could be

00:20:43.420 the best

00:20:45.100 prevention

00:20:46.200 against terrorism.

00:20:49.540 Weirdly.

00:20:51.900 So that's the

00:20:52.800 optimistic view.

00:20:54.220 Now,

00:20:54.580 does the optimistic

00:20:55.460 view work out

00:20:56.300 very often

00:20:57.360 when you're talking

00:20:57.880 about the Taliban?

00:20:59.340 Nope.

00:21:00.400 Nope.

00:21:00.660 So I'd say

00:21:01.720 that whenever

00:21:02.060 you get optimistic

00:21:03.240 about,

00:21:03.660 hey,

00:21:04.080 this Taliban

00:21:04.720 situation could

00:21:05.580 work out pretty well,

00:21:07.480 yeah,

00:21:07.780 let's go,

00:21:08.240 Brandon.

00:21:11.960 Everybody knows

00:21:12.760 what let's go,

00:21:13.480 Brandon means,

00:21:14.380 right?

00:21:15.560 Is there anybody

00:21:16.080 watching this right now

00:21:17.100 who would say,

00:21:17.640 what's that mean?

00:21:18.380 Who's Brandon?

00:21:19.760 What does let's go,

00:21:21.120 Brandon?

00:21:22.500 It's a reference

00:21:23.360 to the fact

00:21:24.960 that when people

00:21:26.260 at stadiums

00:21:27.120 are chanting,

00:21:28.800 F Joe Biden,

00:21:29.900 there was one

00:21:32.500 news person

00:21:34.280 who cheekily

00:21:35.860 said it was

00:21:36.880 let's go,

00:21:37.500 Brandon,

00:21:37.980 because she was

00:21:38.380 interviewing the

00:21:39.640 winner of the race

00:21:40.220 named Brandon.

00:21:41.660 But now we're

00:21:42.320 seeing that

00:21:42.820 let's go,

00:21:43.620 Brandon,

00:21:44.120 as sort of the,

00:21:46.040 what happened is

00:21:47.100 it evolved into

00:21:48.160 the polite way

00:21:49.920 to say F Biden.

00:21:53.440 So now you can

00:21:54.440 say in public,

00:21:55.880 let's go,

00:21:56.460 Brandon.

00:21:57.400 And everybody

00:21:58.200 in their mind

00:21:58.780 is translating

00:21:59.420 into F Joe

00:22:00.260 Biden.

00:22:00.980 It's kind of

00:22:01.340 perfect.

00:22:02.880 Now,

00:22:03.440 don't you think,

00:22:05.640 what do you think

00:22:06.380 are the odds

00:22:06.980 that Donald Trump

00:22:10.000 will say,

00:22:11.340 let's go,

00:22:11.700 Brandon,

00:22:12.720 in a public event?

00:22:14.020 Has he done it yet?

00:22:14.860 I feel like he

00:22:16.480 probably did it already.

00:22:17.440 Didn't he have,

00:22:18.400 has he had,

00:22:19.020 oh,

00:22:19.200 he did.

00:22:19.880 He did.

00:22:22.100 Of course.

00:22:23.040 Oh,

00:22:23.400 he tweeted it?

00:22:24.420 No,

00:22:24.620 well,

00:22:25.700 Trump can't tweet.

00:22:29.800 Oh,

00:22:30.320 did he do it

00:22:31.140 already?

00:22:31.580 Okay.

00:22:32.420 Well,

00:22:32.680 that's the Trump

00:22:33.200 we know.

00:22:36.260 So China

00:22:37.060 is once again

00:22:38.340 sending just

00:22:40.220 all kinds of

00:22:41.000 fighter jets

00:22:42.340 and bombers

00:22:43.160 over Taiwan,

00:22:44.720 and they're making

00:22:45.520 it real obvious

00:22:46.180 at this point

00:22:46.800 that they're

00:22:47.240 intimidating Taiwan

00:22:48.420 into basically

00:22:50.020 not fighting

00:22:50.700 and just giving up,

00:22:51.520 I think,

00:22:52.040 is the idea.

00:22:53.540 And they're really

00:22:54.580 putting the pressure

00:22:55.160 on Taiwan,

00:22:56.000 and of course,

00:22:56.860 Joe Biden's doing

00:22:57.760 nothing about it.

00:23:00.180 Nothing.

00:23:01.600 So,

00:23:02.200 what should we do

00:23:02.860 about it?

00:23:03.900 What should the

00:23:04.540 United States do

00:23:05.760 about China

00:23:08.340 clearly making

00:23:09.540 military moves

00:23:11.260 toward Taiwan?

00:23:14.340 Well,

00:23:15.380 personally,

00:23:16.980 I don't see any

00:23:17.540 scenario in which

00:23:18.360 we should fire

00:23:19.180 any bullets at China.

00:23:21.520 I hate to say it,

00:23:23.160 but even if they

00:23:23.920 take over Taiwan.

00:23:26.520 Personally,

00:23:28.040 while Taiwan

00:23:28.720 is an ally,

00:23:30.680 and we don't want

00:23:31.260 to let down an ally,

00:23:32.240 that would be

00:23:32.720 horrible,

00:23:34.780 a military

00:23:35.560 confrontation

00:23:36.100 seems,

00:23:37.760 I just can't see it.

00:23:39.720 Now,

00:23:40.060 a threatening

00:23:40.500 that we might

00:23:41.360 is probably good.

00:23:43.360 So,

00:23:43.640 yeah,

00:23:43.760 we should threaten it.

00:23:44.940 We should act

00:23:45.460 exactly like we're

00:23:46.380 going to do it.

00:23:47.300 Maybe we could

00:23:47.780 surround it with

00:23:48.500 warships if,

00:23:49.440 you know,

00:23:50.040 China gets

00:23:50.720 too aggressive,

00:23:52.220 something like

00:23:52.580 that.

00:23:53.700 But,

00:23:54.780 shouldn't we at

00:23:55.900 this point put a

00:23:56.580 price tag on it?

00:23:59.380 I feel like

00:24:00.220 Trump would.

00:24:01.780 Don't know for

00:24:02.520 sure,

00:24:03.720 but when they're

00:24:04.840 getting this close

00:24:05.980 to a military

00:24:07.840 move,

00:24:08.540 you know,

00:24:08.740 like a serious

00:24:10.100 military move

00:24:10.920 on Taiwan,

00:24:11.860 when they get

00:24:12.600 this close,

00:24:13.160 I think it's only

00:24:13.800 fair to tell them

00:24:14.420 what the price tag

00:24:15.100 is.

00:24:16.960 The price tag

00:24:17.840 probably isn't

00:24:18.760 nuclear war.

00:24:20.340 I don't think

00:24:21.100 we're going to

00:24:21.460 launch a nuke

00:24:22.180 over Taiwan.

00:24:24.220 Do you?

00:24:24.620 We're not.

00:24:25.440 That's not going

00:24:26.080 to happen.

00:24:26.820 At least,

00:24:27.560 not unless

00:24:28.080 something escalated

00:24:29.120 out of control.

00:24:31.480 But,

00:24:32.100 would we not

00:24:33.740 punish China

00:24:34.800 economically?

00:24:37.440 Well,

00:24:37.940 I don't know

00:24:38.240 if we can.

00:24:39.780 Don't know

00:24:40.260 if we can.

00:24:42.440 Right away.

00:24:43.200 But I think

00:24:46.080 we could say

00:24:46.780 that's the last

00:24:48.540 American company

00:24:49.360 that will ever

00:24:49.860 go to China

00:24:50.460 to do business.

00:24:52.340 I think we

00:24:53.160 could raise

00:24:53.780 the taxes

00:24:54.360 substantially

00:24:55.580 on American

00:24:57.520 companies that

00:24:58.220 want to stay

00:24:58.680 there.

00:25:00.660 I think we

00:25:01.580 could

00:25:02.000 make sure

00:25:04.320 that they

00:25:04.740 get sucked

00:25:05.480 dry,

00:25:06.600 but it's

00:25:06.940 kind of a

00:25:07.760 delicate dance

00:25:09.240 because they

00:25:09.820 have especially

00:25:11.540 rare earth

00:25:12.260 minerals and

00:25:13.020 other things

00:25:13.580 that they

00:25:13.900 can control

00:25:15.040 us with.

00:25:16.160 Now,

00:25:16.720 if we are

00:25:17.180 not trying

00:25:17.700 as hard

00:25:18.100 as we can

00:25:18.600 to find

00:25:19.080 other sources

00:25:19.920 for all

00:25:20.500 that stuff,

00:25:21.700 and some

00:25:22.020 of it's

00:25:22.300 harder than

00:25:22.720 other stuff,

00:25:23.340 you know,

00:25:23.520 pharmaceuticals,

00:25:24.460 you can't

00:25:25.240 just ramp

00:25:25.720 up a

00:25:26.040 pharmaceutical

00:25:26.540 manufacturing

00:25:27.840 plant in a

00:25:28.520 day.

00:25:29.420 But I

00:25:30.540 don't know

00:25:30.940 what our

00:25:31.220 government is

00:25:31.840 doing behind

00:25:32.540 the scenes,

00:25:33.780 but if

00:25:34.900 they're not

00:25:35.280 trying a lot

00:25:35.920 harder behind

00:25:36.640 the scenes

00:25:37.240 to take down

00:25:38.820 China

00:25:39.220 economically,

00:25:40.680 that's a

00:25:41.320 mistake.

00:25:41.820 we know

00:25:43.440 what they're

00:25:43.960 doing publicly

00:25:44.640 trying to

00:25:45.280 make Buy

00:25:46.100 America more

00:25:46.760 of a positive

00:25:47.400 thing than

00:25:47.860 a negative,

00:25:48.800 but we

00:25:50.480 need to

00:25:50.840 give them

00:25:51.260 an invoice.

00:25:53.260 We need

00:25:53.920 to give

00:25:54.200 them a

00:25:54.580 written price

00:25:55.220 tag that

00:25:56.340 says,

00:25:56.760 look,

00:25:57.280 if you

00:25:57.640 take over

00:25:58.140 Taiwan,

00:25:59.520 independent of

00:26:00.420 what we do

00:26:00.880 militarily,

00:26:01.600 which we're

00:26:01.920 not going to

00:26:02.300 say in advance

00:26:02.960 because we

00:26:03.400 don't say

00:26:03.780 in advance

00:26:04.240 what we do

00:26:04.720 militarily,

00:26:05.280 the cost

00:26:07.680 of this

00:26:08.040 is your

00:26:09.300 economy.

00:26:10.480 That's the

00:26:11.040 price tag.

00:26:12.020 The price tag

00:26:12.760 for Taiwan,

00:26:13.500 if you want

00:26:13.900 it,

00:26:14.680 is your

00:26:15.180 economy.

00:26:16.360 And we

00:26:16.800 should make

00:26:17.120 that completely

00:26:18.220 clear.

00:26:19.580 And that it's

00:26:20.340 your economy

00:26:20.840 forever.

00:26:22.060 Like it's not

00:26:22.720 going to change.

00:26:23.520 It's not like

00:26:24.040 we're going to

00:26:24.320 put sanctions

00:26:24.900 on you for

00:26:25.400 five years.

00:26:26.400 It's just

00:26:26.920 permanent.

00:26:27.240 If you cross

00:26:29.000 this line,

00:26:30.840 it's just

00:26:31.260 permanent.

00:26:33.540 Ooh.

00:26:33.980 Azalea says

00:26:35.940 Greenland has

00:26:36.780 rare earth

00:26:37.240 minerals.

00:26:39.860 Well,

00:26:41.180 as long as

00:26:42.320 we have the

00:26:42.680 military and

00:26:43.400 Greenland's

00:26:44.080 pretty close.

00:26:45.660 Sorry,

00:26:46.140 Greenland.

00:26:46.960 No,

00:26:47.340 we're not

00:26:47.580 going to

00:26:47.800 conquer

00:26:48.080 Greenland,

00:26:48.740 but it

00:26:48.920 would be

00:26:49.100 nice if

00:26:49.500 we had

00:26:49.720 alternate

00:26:50.020 sources.

00:26:51.620 You know,

00:26:51.860 Australia is

00:26:52.440 an alternate

00:26:52.800 source.

00:26:54.160 Canada is

00:26:54.720 an alternate

00:26:55.080 source for

00:26:55.880 a lot of

00:26:56.240 this stuff.

00:26:57.860 So we do

00:26:58.500 have allies

00:26:59.200 who have

00:26:59.720 rare earth

00:27:00.300 minerals,

00:27:01.480 right?

00:27:01.700 We've got

00:27:05.480 to give

00:27:05.680 them a

00:27:06.140 price tag.

00:27:08.940 So as

00:27:10.440 you know,

00:27:10.940 if you're

00:27:11.220 brand new

00:27:11.640 to me,

00:27:12.840 China makes

00:27:13.720 fentanyl and

00:27:14.480 sends it to

00:27:15.140 the cartels

00:27:15.860 and then the

00:27:16.300 cartels send

00:27:16.980 it up here

00:27:17.460 and then it

00:27:17.860 kills people.

00:27:18.980 And one of

00:27:19.320 the people

00:27:19.660 that fentanyl

00:27:20.560 killed was

00:27:21.100 my stepson.

00:27:22.820 So China

00:27:23.660 and I

00:27:24.000 have an

00:27:25.240 issue.

00:27:26.520 We have

00:27:27.100 an issue.

00:27:27.660 It's personal.

00:27:28.120 And so I've

00:27:29.860 been looking

00:27:30.160 for ways to

00:27:30.900 take China

00:27:31.580 down with

00:27:34.580 a persuasion

00:27:36.640 kill shot.

00:27:38.780 And after

00:27:40.700 A-B testing

00:27:41.500 it for about

00:27:42.020 three years,

00:27:43.680 since 2018

00:27:44.440 is when I

00:27:45.020 lost my

00:27:45.420 stepson,

00:27:46.640 I have

00:27:48.240 the kill

00:27:48.540 shot now.

00:27:50.160 So I

00:27:51.120 tested a lot

00:27:51.640 of things,

00:27:52.200 but here's

00:27:52.580 the kill

00:27:52.880 shot.

00:27:53.180 So I tweeted

00:27:54.300 this yesterday

00:27:55.000 and this

00:27:55.600 should get

00:27:58.300 it done.

00:27:59.960 The tweet

00:28:00.520 goes like

00:28:00.920 this.

00:28:01.660 The foundation

00:28:02.280 of economics

00:28:02.960 is trust.

00:28:05.460 Right?

00:28:06.460 You can't

00:28:07.180 do any

00:28:08.100 kind of a

00:28:08.460 business deal

00:28:09.100 without a

00:28:09.620 minimum level

00:28:10.360 of trust.

00:28:11.680 Now, sure,

00:28:12.240 you can trust

00:28:12.880 plus verify,

00:28:14.040 you can have

00:28:14.560 mutually assured

00:28:16.040 destruction and

00:28:17.280 all those other

00:28:17.860 things, but

00:28:18.600 they all get

00:28:19.020 to trust.

00:28:20.320 The trust

00:28:20.840 in the sense

00:28:21.520 that if I

00:28:22.340 give you money

00:28:22.940 you're going

00:28:23.280 to give me

00:28:23.620 some kind

00:28:24.020 of goods

00:28:24.520 or service.

00:28:25.600 you're not

00:28:26.640 just going

00:28:26.980 to take

00:28:27.180 my money

00:28:27.520 and run

00:28:27.880 away.

00:28:29.160 And you

00:28:29.980 have to

00:28:30.260 trust that

00:28:30.680 the money

00:28:31.020 I give

00:28:31.360 you is

00:28:31.640 real money.

00:28:32.900 Right?

00:28:33.160 That I

00:28:33.460 actually have

00:28:33.940 money,

00:28:34.480 you know,

00:28:34.640 my check

00:28:35.020 won't bounce,

00:28:35.720 et cetera.

00:28:36.160 So the

00:28:36.700 economy can't

00:28:37.420 move without

00:28:38.640 some minimum

00:28:39.760 level of trust

00:28:40.640 with the

00:28:41.100 customer and

00:28:41.840 everybody else.

00:28:43.860 So people

00:28:45.340 argued whether

00:28:46.300 that's the

00:28:47.280 foundation of

00:28:47.980 economics because

00:28:48.940 other people

00:28:49.440 said,

00:28:49.680 no, no,

00:28:50.600 the foundation

00:28:51.300 is supply

00:28:54.800 and demand.

00:28:55.600 Okay,

00:28:56.760 don't get

00:28:57.260 caught up

00:28:58.820 with the

00:28:59.580 word

00:28:59.760 foundation.

00:29:01.460 There are

00:29:02.060 bunches of

00:29:02.820 things.

00:29:05.440 There are

00:29:06.100 bunches of

00:29:06.680 things

00:29:07.140 which are

00:29:12.400 required for

00:29:13.240 economics.

00:29:14.020 Right?

00:29:14.260 Your economy

00:29:14.980 won't work

00:29:15.500 unless you

00:29:15.800 have resources

00:29:16.940 and currency

00:29:18.320 and oxygen

00:29:19.660 and, you know,

00:29:20.600 there are all

00:29:20.840 kinds of things

00:29:21.320 you need.

00:29:21.660 But I'm

00:29:23.040 just going to

00:29:23.340 say that

00:29:23.840 trust is the

00:29:24.860 thing that

00:29:25.400 makes everything

00:29:26.480 work.

00:29:27.720 Like, it

00:29:28.120 doesn't matter

00:29:28.560 if you have

00:29:28.880 resources, if

00:29:29.840 you don't have

00:29:30.200 trust, et cetera.

00:29:31.400 If you have

00:29:31.880 trust, you're

00:29:37.320 right, Ronnie.

00:29:38.200 I'm going to

00:29:38.680 read Ronnie's

00:29:39.260 comment.

00:29:41.400 Trump got

00:29:41.920 Scott to

00:29:42.440 publicly thank

00:29:43.280 President Xi

00:29:44.080 for lying about

00:29:45.240 stopping fentanyl.

00:29:46.440 True story.

00:29:47.500 Trump made

00:29:48.060 Scott look

00:29:48.600 dumb.

00:29:49.000 True story.

00:29:50.520 True criticism.

00:29:53.140 I know that

00:29:53.900 you're surprised

00:29:54.440 sometimes if I

00:29:55.260 agree with a

00:29:56.060 critic.

00:29:57.480 Sometimes you're

00:29:58.160 just right.

00:29:58.780 Right?

00:29:59.660 I'm not even

00:30:00.280 sure that that's

00:30:00.840 a criticism per

00:30:01.820 se.

00:30:02.260 It's an accurate

00:30:03.280 description of

00:30:03.940 what happened.

00:30:05.460 So what do I

00:30:06.060 think of Trump's

00:30:07.360 performance on

00:30:08.180 China and

00:30:09.060 fentanyl?

00:30:10.340 Failure.

00:30:11.020 Total failure.

00:30:12.000 F.

00:30:13.020 F.

00:30:14.120 Right?

00:30:14.760 Let me say that

00:30:15.340 as clearly as

00:30:16.060 possible.

00:30:16.940 Trump failed

00:30:18.600 spectacularly on

00:30:20.840 the fentanyl

00:30:21.600 China thing.

00:30:22.620 And I'm not

00:30:23.780 happy about it

00:30:24.520 because it's

00:30:25.320 personal.

00:30:26.540 Biden, of

00:30:27.120 course, is

00:30:27.480 failing too.

00:30:30.900 I guess that's

00:30:31.740 why I felt I

00:30:32.380 had to do

00:30:32.740 something myself.

00:30:34.440 If we had a

00:30:35.320 leadership that

00:30:35.860 was doing

00:30:36.160 something useful,

00:30:37.480 I'd let them

00:30:38.020 do it.

00:30:38.920 But they're not

00:30:39.640 doing it.

00:30:40.660 So I kind of

00:30:41.460 had to do it

00:30:41.920 myself.

00:30:42.960 So here's the

00:30:43.460 rest of the

00:30:43.820 kill shot.

00:30:45.000 So I said the

00:30:45.560 foundation for

00:30:46.220 economics is

00:30:46.840 trust.

00:30:47.260 Everybody who

00:30:47.880 in business

00:30:48.560 understands that

00:30:49.860 you have to

00:30:50.200 have trust for

00:30:51.060 things to work.

00:30:52.440 And I said China

00:30:53.240 has lost its

00:30:53.960 economic foundation.

00:30:55.080 In other words,

00:30:55.420 it lost its

00:30:55.980 trust.

00:30:57.280 Do you trust

00:30:58.020 China?

00:30:59.200 Do you trust

00:31:00.040 that if your

00:31:00.680 CEO visits

00:31:02.120 China that they

00:31:03.600 won't be locked

00:31:04.200 up on fake

00:31:06.000 charges for some

00:31:06.980 kind of leverage

00:31:08.600 over something?

00:31:09.760 No, not really.

00:31:10.880 Do you trust that

00:31:11.620 they won't monitor

00:31:12.400 your communication?

00:31:13.940 Nope.

00:31:14.200 Do you trust

00:31:14.980 they won't steal

00:31:15.640 your IP?

00:31:16.480 Nope.

00:31:17.080 Do you trust

00:31:17.700 that they'll

00:31:19.300 just play fair

00:31:20.200 even if it's

00:31:21.020 bad for China?

00:31:21.860 Nope.

00:31:23.100 Do you think

00:31:23.780 that their data

00:31:24.400 is accurate,

00:31:25.360 the things they

00:31:26.200 say about

00:31:26.660 really everything,

00:31:28.000 their economy?

00:31:29.140 If they tell

00:31:29.760 you that there's

00:31:30.400 enough energy

00:31:30.920 to run your

00:31:31.480 factory, is it

00:31:33.080 true?

00:31:33.340 Do you trust

00:31:33.780 them?

00:31:34.720 Nope.

00:31:36.080 China, through

00:31:37.440 its own actions,

00:31:39.280 has destroyed

00:31:40.320 its trust.

00:31:41.080 And if you

00:31:43.180 do new

00:31:44.240 business with

00:31:44.900 China, new

00:31:46.360 business, right,

00:31:47.140 if you're already

00:31:47.680 in business, it's

00:31:49.320 harder to wind it

00:31:50.080 down, and I

00:31:51.240 understand that.

00:31:52.140 You have to be

00:31:52.800 practical, too,

00:31:53.600 right?

00:31:54.600 But, and I

00:31:57.360 said you don't

00:31:57.800 have to be an

00:31:58.320 economist to

00:31:59.040 predict how this

00:31:59.720 will turn out.

00:32:00.580 The only question

00:32:01.340 left is the rate

00:32:02.200 of decline.

00:32:04.220 The only question

00:32:05.420 left is the rate

00:32:06.720 of decline.

00:32:08.260 They have

00:32:08.660 entered a death

00:32:09.380 spiral.

00:32:11.700 Here's another

00:32:12.460 way to say the

00:32:13.340 same thing.

00:32:14.300 When I said the

00:32:14.960 foundation of

00:32:15.620 economics is

00:32:16.360 trust, closely

00:32:19.040 related to that

00:32:19.880 is expectations

00:32:20.900 and psychology.

00:32:23.560 The thing that

00:32:24.400 drives every

00:32:25.100 economy is

00:32:26.020 psychology.

00:32:28.060 Not only about

00:32:29.460 trust, but do

00:32:31.380 you think that

00:32:31.900 next year will

00:32:32.500 be better or

00:32:33.100 worse?

00:32:33.800 If your

00:32:34.440 psychology is that

00:32:35.420 next year will

00:32:35.940 be better, you

00:32:36.560 invest.

00:32:37.800 If your

00:32:38.240 psychology is that

00:32:38.980 next year is

00:32:39.480 going to be

00:32:39.760 terrible, then

00:32:41.060 maybe you

00:32:41.380 hold off.

00:32:43.500 China has

00:32:44.340 entered a

00:32:45.000 death spiral

00:32:45.640 economically.

00:32:47.620 I don't see

00:32:48.520 the end of it

00:32:49.220 because their

00:32:50.700 adventurism is

00:32:52.760 going to make it

00:32:53.240 harder to do

00:32:53.920 business, not

00:32:54.500 easier, and

00:32:55.620 their energy

00:32:56.120 needs are going

00:32:56.660 to be increasing,

00:32:57.440 not decreasing.

00:32:58.780 Every problem

00:32:59.640 they have is

00:33:01.440 going to get

00:33:01.860 worse because

00:33:03.820 they're going to

00:33:04.480 start building on

00:33:05.200 top of each

00:33:05.740 other.

00:33:05.940 And the

00:33:06.680 psychology of

00:33:07.800 why anybody

00:33:08.420 would do

00:33:08.780 business with

00:33:09.380 China if

00:33:10.080 they could

00:33:10.680 avoid it is

00:33:11.880 completely

00:33:12.580 different now.

00:33:14.120 And as we

00:33:14.580 watch things

00:33:15.140 like the

00:33:15.560 Uyghurs in

00:33:16.280 prison camps,

00:33:17.540 we see all

00:33:18.620 their bad

00:33:19.020 behavior, two

00:33:19.760 corporations

00:33:20.400 stealing their

00:33:21.100 IP, etc.

00:33:22.000 And when we

00:33:22.800 see them

00:33:24.320 sending war

00:33:24.980 planes to

00:33:25.560 Taiwan, I

00:33:29.400 think you

00:33:29.780 have to say

00:33:30.380 that the

00:33:31.080 prospects for

00:33:32.080 China's

00:33:32.800 economy are

00:33:34.180 worse in

00:33:35.420 the future,

00:33:35.980 not better,

00:33:36.860 and they're

00:33:37.440 worse to the

00:33:37.920 point where

00:33:38.280 you don't

00:33:38.600 even want to

00:33:39.060 do business

00:33:39.520 over there

00:33:39.860 because you

00:33:40.100 don't know

00:33:40.360 what's going

00:33:40.660 to happen.

00:33:41.500 Because the

00:33:42.080 United States

00:33:42.640 could clamp

00:33:43.600 down on

00:33:44.380 China so

00:33:45.000 hard, and I

00:33:46.460 think it's

00:33:46.780 heading in

00:33:47.160 that direction,

00:33:48.140 that you

00:33:48.940 just wouldn't

00:33:49.340 be able to

00:33:49.900 do business

00:33:50.720 there.

00:33:51.060 It would

00:33:51.240 just be too

00:33:51.700 dangerous to

00:33:52.260 have a

00:33:52.520 factory there

00:33:53.060 if you're

00:33:53.300 an American.

00:33:54.700 So at

00:33:55.380 this point,

00:33:56.760 the simple

00:33:57.420 knowledge that

00:33:58.320 China is

00:33:59.480 entering an

00:34:00.020 economic death

00:34:00.780 spiral and

00:34:02.200 that it would

00:34:03.200 be insane

00:34:03.980 for anybody

00:34:04.440 to move

00:34:04.820 business there

00:34:05.420 or to start

00:34:05.980 doing business

00:34:06.480 if they had

00:34:06.960 to, that's

00:34:09.760 enough.

00:34:10.860 That's all

00:34:11.280 it takes.

00:34:13.680 The future

00:34:14.880 of China has

00:34:15.600 now been

00:34:16.140 written.

00:34:16.880 It's as

00:34:17.220 clear as

00:34:17.920 the Havana

00:34:18.560 syndrome.

00:34:20.420 If you

00:34:21.040 have this

00:34:22.080 kind of

00:34:22.400 talent stack,

00:34:23.040 you can see

00:34:23.460 it.

00:34:24.200 Let me put

00:34:24.620 it another

00:34:24.920 way.

00:34:25.960 The reason

00:34:26.640 I can see

00:34:27.080 the Havana

00:34:27.600 syndrome thing

00:34:28.380 as a mass

00:34:28.980 hallucination

00:34:29.800 is because

00:34:30.720 I'm a

00:34:31.160 trained

00:34:31.560 hypnotist

00:34:32.180 and I

00:34:32.520 deal with

00:34:33.160 persuasion

00:34:34.340 and mass

00:34:35.000 persuasion

00:34:37.200 as kind

00:34:38.080 of a

00:34:38.260 hobby.

00:34:39.480 So when

00:34:39.760 I saw it,

00:34:40.240 I said,

00:34:40.460 oh,

00:34:40.700 that's

00:34:40.920 obvious

00:34:41.320 because I

00:34:42.580 have a

00:34:42.760 very specific

00:34:43.580 skill set

00:34:44.240 that can

00:34:44.600 see it.

00:34:45.560 If you

00:34:45.900 have that

00:34:46.200 same skill

00:34:46.740 set,

00:34:47.220 it has

00:34:48.880 nothing to

00:34:49.260 do with

00:34:49.440 IQ or

00:34:50.040 anything

00:34:50.240 else.

00:34:50.720 But if

00:34:51.000 you have

00:34:51.180 that specific

00:34:51.840 experience,

00:34:52.540 you can

00:34:52.760 see it

00:34:53.040 too.

00:34:53.660 It would

00:34:53.880 just be

00:34:54.140 obvious.

00:34:55.660 Likewise,

00:34:56.100 if you

00:34:57.080 had a

00:34:57.260 background in

00:34:57.880 economics and

00:34:58.580 business,

00:34:59.040 as I

00:34:59.620 also do,

00:35:01.200 you can

00:35:01.800 see this.

00:35:03.720 Is there

00:35:04.140 anybody,

00:35:04.840 actually I

00:35:05.700 know there

00:35:06.040 are plenty

00:35:06.340 of economists

00:35:07.020 who are

00:35:07.300 watching this

00:35:07.860 right now.

00:35:09.160 So if

00:35:09.840 you're an

00:35:10.160 economist,

00:35:12.080 give me a

00:35:13.520 shout out,

00:35:14.540 tell me you're

00:35:15.020 an economist

00:35:15.460 in the comments,

00:35:16.360 and then tell

00:35:16.880 me you can

00:35:17.340 see it too,

00:35:18.320 or can't.

00:35:19.360 Either confirm

00:35:20.180 or deny.

00:35:20.540 If you're an

00:35:21.620 economist in the

00:35:22.400 comments,

00:35:23.100 or even if you

00:35:24.400 just have lots

00:35:24.940 of business

00:35:25.440 experience,

00:35:26.040 let's say,

00:35:27.760 can you

00:35:28.300 see that

00:35:29.240 China just

00:35:29.760 entered a

00:35:30.220 death spiral?

00:35:35.480 I'm

00:35:36.000 just,

00:35:36.260 I'm

00:35:36.440 saying yeses.

00:35:38.240 Anybody

00:35:38.600 disagree?

00:35:39.560 Anybody who

00:35:40.120 has experience

00:35:41.100 in economics,

00:35:44.240 econ degree,

00:35:45.000 can see it

00:35:46.860 with your

00:35:47.380 framing,

00:35:48.300 yeah?

00:35:48.620 The way I

00:35:49.060 frame it,

00:35:49.400 you can see

00:35:49.740 it.

00:35:53.860 Right,

00:35:54.420 the foundation

00:35:54.940 of economies

00:35:55.580 is trust,

00:35:56.380 so I

00:35:56.720 agree with

00:35:57.060 you on

00:35:57.300 that.

00:35:58.960 I'm an

00:35:59.520 economist.

00:36:00.160 I do see

00:36:00.720 China's

00:36:01.320 death spiral

00:36:01.880 if the

00:36:02.920 opposition

00:36:03.340 plays their

00:36:03.940 part.

00:36:05.060 That's

00:36:05.500 always true,

00:36:06.000 right?

00:36:07.820 Reliance

00:36:08.260 on domestic

00:36:08.920 investment

00:36:09.580 only?

00:36:12.780 Confirmed

00:36:13.220 from Erwin.

00:36:14.400 Yes,

00:36:14.920 yes.

00:36:16.220 All right,

00:36:16.580 so just

00:36:17.980 keep watching

00:36:18.880 the comments

00:36:19.380 in case there

00:36:19.940 aren't any

00:36:20.260 more,

00:36:20.820 but just

00:36:21.240 hold this

00:36:22.020 in your

00:36:22.260 mind.

00:36:24.360 Everybody

00:36:24.800 who has

00:36:25.360 experience

00:36:25.860 in this

00:36:26.440 field

00:36:26.820 can see

00:36:28.200 it now.

00:36:30.160 Right?

00:36:31.260 That's new.

00:36:33.320 Okay,

00:36:33.660 that's new.

00:36:35.100 I would

00:36:35.660 say even

00:36:36.180 maybe a

00:36:36.620 few months

00:36:37.060 ago,

00:36:38.080 you could

00:36:38.500 be a

00:36:39.060 working

00:36:39.460 economist,

00:36:40.200 have a

00:36:40.400 lot of

00:36:40.600 experience

00:36:40.980 in economics,

00:36:41.840 and not

00:36:42.340 necessarily

00:36:42.800 think China

00:36:43.400 is in

00:36:43.820 trouble.

00:36:44.940 You know,

00:36:45.180 you see

00:36:45.620 the troubles

00:36:46.120 individually,

00:36:46.800 but you

00:36:46.980 wouldn't

00:36:47.080 think,

00:36:47.380 eh,

00:36:47.740 not China

00:36:48.660 as a

00:36:48.940 country.

00:36:49.260 But now

00:36:51.000 you see

00:36:51.300 it.

00:36:52.220 Now you

00:36:52.580 see it

00:36:52.800 pretty

00:36:52.940 clearly.

00:36:53.900 If you

00:36:54.280 add the

00:36:54.580 energy

00:36:54.880 problems,

00:36:55.540 plus the

00:36:55.860 climate

00:36:56.080 change

00:36:56.420 problems,

00:36:57.120 plus the

00:36:57.460 trust

00:36:57.680 problems,

00:36:58.820 plus the

00:37:00.360 decoupling

00:37:00.960 that's going

00:37:01.680 on,

00:37:02.680 plus fentanyl,

00:37:06.000 plus

00:37:06.380 coronavirus,

00:37:09.460 at this

00:37:10.360 moment,

00:37:11.100 anybody with

00:37:11.860 economic

00:37:12.280 training can

00:37:12.860 see it.

00:37:13.460 China just

00:37:13.920 entered an

00:37:14.400 economic

00:37:14.800 death

00:37:15.100 spiral.

00:37:16.060 Now,

00:37:16.420 how do we

00:37:16.960 avoid going

00:37:18.520 down with

00:37:19.080 them?

00:37:19.220 What keeps

00:37:20.980 the rest

00:37:21.360 of the

00:37:21.560 world from

00:37:22.020 going into

00:37:22.460 this death

00:37:22.960 spiral at

00:37:23.440 the same

00:37:23.740 time?

00:37:25.860 Probably

00:37:26.380 timing,

00:37:28.060 which might

00:37:29.120 be enough.

00:37:30.500 Timing.

00:37:31.540 In other

00:37:31.880 words,

00:37:32.860 let's say

00:37:33.680 Apple doesn't

00:37:34.740 pull out of

00:37:35.600 China because

00:37:36.340 it would just

00:37:36.800 be too

00:37:37.140 hard,

00:37:38.200 but they

00:37:39.680 do start a

00:37:40.320 long-term

00:37:40.900 process of

00:37:41.740 finding another

00:37:42.620 way to

00:37:43.060 manufacture.

00:37:44.780 So if

00:37:46.060 they can

00:37:46.380 stay in

00:37:46.840 China and

00:37:47.380 keep

00:37:47.560 manufacturing

00:37:48.100 their iPhones,

00:37:49.220 until they've

00:37:50.140 got a proper

00:37:50.860 alternative set

00:37:51.800 up, maybe

00:37:53.300 the impact

00:37:53.780 on the

00:37:54.020 United States

00:37:54.480 isn't so

00:37:54.960 much.

00:37:55.660 Because China

00:37:56.400 is still

00:37:56.780 going to

00:37:56.960 want to

00:37:57.180 work with

00:37:57.560 American

00:37:57.900 companies as

00:37:58.540 long as

00:37:58.900 they can.

00:38:00.420 Right?

00:38:01.460 As long as

00:38:02.240 they can,

00:38:02.720 they're going

00:38:02.920 to keep

00:38:03.160 taking our

00:38:03.580 money.

00:38:04.620 So I

00:38:05.060 feel like

00:38:05.640 we could

00:38:06.280 phase our

00:38:06.960 way out of

00:38:07.520 there because

00:38:08.580 their incentive

00:38:10.140 is to keep

00:38:10.720 doing business

00:38:11.320 with us even

00:38:12.120 as we're

00:38:12.560 leaving.

00:38:14.240 I'm seeing

00:38:15.000 a disagreement

00:38:15.760 in all caps.

00:38:16.800 You're wrong

00:38:17.500 about China.

00:38:18.100 disagree.

00:38:21.680 May I

00:38:22.240 take a

00:38:22.560 moment?

00:38:24.100 May I

00:38:24.680 take a

00:38:25.000 moment to

00:38:25.500 address the

00:38:26.960 fine person

00:38:28.360 who's watching

00:38:28.920 who's yelling

00:38:29.980 at me in

00:38:30.440 all caps

00:38:30.980 that I'm

00:38:31.960 wrong but

00:38:33.440 does not

00:38:33.880 give any

00:38:34.300 kind of a

00:38:34.780 reason?

00:38:36.160 You might

00:38:36.540 be new

00:38:36.880 here.

00:38:39.060 You might

00:38:39.720 be new

00:38:40.040 here.

00:38:40.280 China's

00:38:46.820 response

00:38:47.260 about

00:38:47.480 fentanyl

00:38:48.000 is that

00:38:48.340 systemic

00:38:48.820 racism

00:38:49.260 exists.

00:38:50.720 Sure.

00:38:52.260 I don't

00:38:52.980 care about

00:38:53.500 that for

00:38:54.420 this topic.

00:38:55.320 I care

00:38:55.620 about it

00:38:55.920 but not

00:38:56.320 for this

00:38:56.680 topic.

00:38:59.580 Scott,

00:39:00.300 you could

00:39:00.680 only use

00:39:01.200 50 characters.

00:39:02.620 Tell me

00:39:02.920 why I'm

00:39:03.220 wrong with

00:39:03.640 China.

00:39:04.420 Not in

00:39:04.960 detail but

00:39:06.000 give me

00:39:06.400 sort of

00:39:07.680 an idea.

00:39:09.000 Just give

00:39:11.780 me an idea

00:39:12.220 of what

00:39:12.420 that means.

00:39:13.420 I think

00:39:15.800 I've

00:39:16.100 trained

00:39:16.920 most of

00:39:17.500 you that

00:39:18.780 you get

00:39:19.120 blocked if

00:39:19.840 you just

00:39:20.120 say I'm

00:39:20.440 wrong,

00:39:21.540 especially in

00:39:22.160 caps,

00:39:22.720 if you

00:39:23.720 don't give

00:39:23.980 me any

00:39:24.380 reason.

00:39:24.880 If you

00:39:25.060 have a

00:39:25.260 reason,

00:39:25.560 that's

00:39:25.720 great.

00:39:26.440 If you

00:39:26.700 have a

00:39:26.920 reason,

00:39:27.200 I want

00:39:27.480 to hear

00:39:27.680 it.

00:39:31.900 Key

00:39:32.340 assumption,

00:39:32.980 you're not

00:39:33.260 sure China

00:39:33.740 government cares

00:39:34.700 about its

00:39:35.080 people.

00:39:37.800 You know,

00:39:38.300 I'm going

00:39:38.560 to push

00:39:38.880 back on

00:39:39.320 that.

00:39:40.600 I'm going

00:39:40.960 to push

00:39:41.180 back on

00:39:41.600 that.

00:39:41.920 The suggestion

00:39:43.040 is that

00:39:43.460 China doesn't

00:39:44.020 care enough

00:39:44.440 about its

00:39:45.000 domestic

00:39:47.040 population,

00:39:49.020 and that

00:39:49.540 gives them

00:39:49.900 flexibility that

00:39:50.900 they can do

00:39:51.440 bad things to

00:39:52.480 other people

00:39:52.920 because they

00:39:53.320 can hurt

00:39:53.660 their own

00:39:53.960 people at

00:39:54.300 the same

00:39:54.540 time.

00:39:54.980 I'm going

00:39:55.280 to push

00:39:55.520 back on

00:39:55.920 that.

00:39:57.140 Honestly,

00:39:57.640 that just

00:39:57.920 sounds racist.

00:39:59.460 Am I

00:39:59.960 wrong?

00:40:01.440 That feels

00:40:02.220 like something

00:40:02.660 I would have

00:40:03.060 heard as a

00:40:03.520 kid.

00:40:04.580 You know,

00:40:04.760 we used to

00:40:05.060 hear that

00:40:05.300 about Japan

00:40:05.920 in World

00:40:07.100 War II.

00:40:07.500 it's like,

00:40:08.320 oh,

00:40:08.600 the advantage

00:40:09.280 the Japanese

00:40:09.880 had is they

00:40:11.000 don't care

00:40:11.400 about people.

00:40:13.060 So,

00:40:13.340 you know,

00:40:13.540 they'll do

00:40:13.900 suicide runs

00:40:14.840 and, you

00:40:15.780 know,

00:40:15.880 they'll fight

00:40:16.300 to the death

00:40:16.740 and stuff

00:40:17.060 because they

00:40:17.320 don't care

00:40:17.600 about people.

00:40:19.060 I feel like

00:40:19.720 that's just

00:40:21.040 racist.

00:40:22.640 I don't think

00:40:23.560 there's anything

00:40:24.040 to that.

00:40:25.400 Is there?

00:40:26.320 I mean,

00:40:26.600 every country

00:40:27.180 sends its

00:40:27.760 people to war

00:40:28.480 knowing they're

00:40:29.020 going to die.

00:40:30.180 And every

00:40:30.600 country has

00:40:31.080 heroes.

00:40:32.220 People who do

00:40:32.860 suicide missions,

00:40:34.060 sometimes they're

00:40:34.700 ordered to,

00:40:35.280 sometimes they

00:40:36.380 volunteer.

00:40:36.700 I feel

00:40:38.620 that's just

00:40:39.180 plain,

00:40:39.920 plain racism

00:40:41.040 to imagine

00:40:42.060 that some

00:40:42.500 country cares

00:40:43.980 less about

00:40:44.540 its own

00:40:44.880 population.

00:40:45.840 Now,

00:40:45.980 I know

00:40:46.120 you're saying

00:40:46.440 the government.

00:40:47.440 You're not

00:40:47.780 saying anybody

00:40:49.140 but the

00:40:49.520 government.

00:40:50.660 But I don't

00:40:51.380 think that

00:40:52.900 Xi could

00:40:54.540 get away

00:40:55.160 with,

00:40:55.520 even with as

00:40:56.020 much power

00:40:56.540 as they have

00:40:57.000 over the

00:40:57.360 population,

00:40:57.880 I don't

00:40:58.100 think he

00:40:58.400 could get

00:40:58.740 away with

00:40:59.100 abusing

00:40:59.500 the public

00:41:00.100 in a way

00:41:00.940 that everybody

00:41:01.400 could see.

00:41:01.920 I mean,

00:41:04.300 at some

00:41:04.840 scale,

00:41:05.420 he couldn't

00:41:05.700 get away

00:41:06.020 with it.

00:41:06.940 So I

00:41:07.400 reject that.

00:41:09.780 I'm going

00:41:10.220 to say,

00:41:10.580 without having

00:41:11.180 any data

00:41:12.220 to support

00:41:13.440 either of

00:41:13.980 our views,

00:41:14.980 I would say,

00:41:15.540 short of data,

00:41:16.400 that has to be

00:41:16.980 assumed to be

00:41:17.580 a racist

00:41:18.000 point of view.

00:41:20.760 Does anybody

00:41:21.540 disagree with

00:41:22.120 that?

00:41:24.260 And by the

00:41:24.900 way,

00:41:25.260 I used to

00:41:25.740 hold that

00:41:26.100 point of view.

00:41:27.260 I would say

00:41:27.720 when I was a

00:41:28.280 kid, I would

00:41:28.840 have agreed

00:41:29.200 with it.

00:41:29.460 Yeah, it

00:41:30.400 does seem

00:41:30.880 to me that

00:41:31.460 over in

00:41:32.280 those Asian

00:41:32.760 countries,

00:41:33.520 they must

00:41:34.040 care less

00:41:34.580 about their

00:41:34.960 people because

00:41:35.560 of the way

00:41:35.860 they act.

00:41:36.900 But as a

00:41:37.440 more mature

00:41:38.840 and informed

00:41:39.700 adult, to

00:41:41.060 me that just

00:41:41.680 felt like it

00:41:42.280 was racist.

00:41:43.680 Like probably

00:41:44.120 there was

00:41:44.380 never anything

00:41:45.180 to it.

00:41:47.520 So Trump

00:41:49.240 says he

00:41:49.740 would beat

00:41:50.100 DeSantis if

00:41:51.140 they had a

00:41:52.600 battle for

00:41:53.040 the primary.

00:41:54.800 What do you

00:41:55.480 think?

00:41:55.880 Would Trump

00:41:56.480 beat DeSantis

00:41:57.660 in the primary?

00:41:59.460 I say

00:42:01.180 yes.

00:42:02.720 I say

00:42:03.340 yes.

00:42:04.700 Because what

00:42:05.540 is DeSantis

00:42:06.180 except boring

00:42:07.360 Trump?

00:42:09.020 Right?

00:42:10.220 DeSantis is

00:42:11.100 just Trump

00:42:11.660 without the

00:42:12.340 sizzle.

00:42:14.600 You know?

00:42:15.100 Policy-wise,

00:42:16.220 they're pretty

00:42:16.900 aligned.

00:42:17.520 And Trump

00:42:17.940 says the

00:42:18.320 same thing.

00:42:18.760 He likes

00:42:19.080 DeSantis.

00:42:19.900 So DeSantis

00:42:20.460 and Trump

00:42:20.900 actually get

00:42:21.380 along and

00:42:21.740 they see

00:42:22.000 each other

00:42:22.300 a lot.

00:42:23.200 Down in

00:42:23.900 Florida there.

00:42:25.760 And I

00:42:26.540 think back

00:42:26.880 in June,

00:42:27.700 Trump was

00:42:28.060 asked if

00:42:28.600 he would

00:42:28.880 consider

00:42:29.220 DeSantis

00:42:29.680 as a

00:42:30.240 vice

00:42:30.480 presidential

00:42:30.940 candidate.

00:42:32.760 What do

00:42:33.300 you think

00:42:33.500 of that?

00:42:34.880 Now,

00:42:35.480 we know

00:42:35.780 that Pence

00:42:36.260 is sort

00:42:37.380 of out of

00:42:37.700 the running,

00:42:38.140 right?

00:42:39.100 What do

00:42:39.640 you think

00:42:39.900 of DeSantis

00:42:40.560 as a

00:42:42.380 vice

00:42:42.620 presidential

00:42:43.120 choice?

00:42:45.840 Honestly,

00:42:46.400 it's the

00:42:46.620 best idea

00:42:47.120 I've ever

00:42:47.460 heard.

00:42:48.720 It's like

00:42:49.280 the best

00:42:49.800 idea I've

00:42:50.320 ever heard.

00:42:51.560 Right?

00:42:52.400 Because what

00:42:52.960 is it that

00:42:53.340 you worry

00:42:53.800 most about

00:42:54.700 Trump?

00:42:56.140 Or you

00:42:56.620 should.

00:42:56.920 The thing

00:42:58.220 you should

00:42:58.480 worry the

00:42:58.840 most about

00:42:59.440 is age,

00:43:01.040 right?

00:43:01.860 Age.

00:43:03.540 And so

00:43:04.240 you need

00:43:04.640 somebody who

00:43:05.180 can really

00:43:05.740 just take

00:43:06.920 over.

00:43:07.900 And you're

00:43:08.440 not going

00:43:08.700 to lose a

00:43:09.100 beat.

00:43:09.860 Could

00:43:10.040 DeSantis

00:43:10.480 just walk

00:43:11.220 into the

00:43:11.720 president's

00:43:12.600 job after

00:43:14.540 a little bit

00:43:15.160 of time as

00:43:15.960 vice president

00:43:16.540 just to know

00:43:17.060 what people's

00:43:17.720 names are in

00:43:18.320 the federal

00:43:18.620 government?

00:43:20.020 I mean,

00:43:20.340 sure,

00:43:20.560 he knows

00:43:20.880 most of them

00:43:21.240 already,

00:43:21.640 but yeah.

00:43:22.940 Yeah,

00:43:23.260 DeSantis

00:43:23.920 would be

00:43:24.760 a just

00:43:25.240 walk

00:43:25.500 into the

00:43:25.800 job.

00:43:27.020 Now,

00:43:28.200 the Democrats

00:43:29.200 tried to do

00:43:29.840 that with

00:43:30.240 Kamala Harris,

00:43:31.000 but they

00:43:31.260 shit the

00:43:33.220 bed so hard.

00:43:34.980 Somehow the

00:43:35.700 Democrats

00:43:36.220 not only

00:43:36.900 found the

00:43:38.000 most degraded

00:43:40.640 biological

00:43:41.900 entity that

00:43:42.980 they could

00:43:43.360 find to

00:43:44.040 run as

00:43:44.400 president,

00:43:45.180 Joe Biden,

00:43:46.080 but then

00:43:46.600 his backup

00:43:47.380 might be

00:43:49.440 the least

00:43:50.000 capable

00:43:50.500 politician

00:43:51.080 we've

00:43:51.460 ever seen

00:43:51.880 in our

00:43:52.180 lifetime.

00:43:53.920 Kamala Harris

00:43:54.460 might be

00:43:54.820 the least

00:43:55.560 capable

00:43:56.780 politician.

00:43:57.800 Now,

00:43:57.960 she's smart

00:43:58.540 and capable

00:43:59.080 and smart

00:44:00.280 and experienced

00:44:00.900 and stuff,

00:44:02.080 but in

00:44:02.540 terms of

00:44:03.000 how she

00:44:03.540 handles

00:44:03.960 herself in

00:44:04.540 public

00:44:04.960 as a

00:44:05.960 vice president,

00:44:06.600 it's the

00:44:06.820 worst I've

00:44:07.280 ever seen.

00:44:08.340 I mean,

00:44:08.620 Dan Quayle

00:44:09.340 was,

00:44:10.320 you know,

00:44:11.080 level above.

00:44:13.060 Yeah,

00:44:13.600 she's as bad

00:44:14.160 as you could

00:44:14.480 be.

00:44:15.940 But,

00:44:16.880 if you saw

00:44:18.040 Trump as a

00:44:18.880 package with

00:44:19.560 DeSantis,

00:44:21.040 DeSantis

00:44:21.540 cures a lot

00:44:23.760 of Trump's

00:44:24.200 problems,

00:44:25.020 doesn't he?

00:44:26.520 Because if

00:44:27.340 DeSantis was

00:44:28.160 the vice

00:44:28.520 president,

00:44:29.080 let's assume

00:44:30.000 that they had

00:44:30.440 some kind

00:44:31.080 of close

00:44:31.480 working

00:44:31.800 relationship,

00:44:33.820 wouldn't

00:44:34.260 you assume

00:44:34.860 that Trump

00:44:36.620 would always

00:44:37.180 hear at

00:44:38.480 least one

00:44:38.940 reasonable

00:44:39.380 person's

00:44:40.040 Republican

00:44:40.540 ideas,

00:44:42.060 right?

00:44:42.860 You would

00:44:43.300 be at

00:44:44.220 least assured

00:44:45.060 that one

00:44:46.740 strong voice

00:44:47.940 that you

00:44:48.500 consider

00:44:48.920 reasonable,

00:44:50.300 DeSantis,

00:44:51.340 would be in

00:44:52.140 Trump's

00:44:52.440 ear.

00:44:53.580 Doesn't

00:44:54.040 that make

00:44:54.360 you feel

00:44:54.620 better?

00:44:55.660 Because even

00:44:56.340 if you love

00:44:56.880 Trump,

00:44:57.280 you think,

00:44:57.640 he can take

00:44:59.380 some risks.

00:45:00.820 But wouldn't

00:45:01.100 you like,

00:45:01.900 you know,

00:45:02.300 the guy who

00:45:02.800 you think

00:45:03.120 is more

00:45:03.880 of a solid

00:45:05.220 reader of

00:45:06.020 the science,

00:45:07.100 which even

00:45:07.740 Bill Maher

00:45:08.740 pointed out

00:45:09.280 that DeSantis,

00:45:10.820 he does

00:45:11.700 do dives.

00:45:12.960 At least

00:45:13.280 that's the

00:45:13.640 story.

00:45:14.460 So he is

00:45:15.280 looking at

00:45:15.660 the science.

00:45:17.100 So,

00:45:18.200 wouldn't

00:45:18.560 you love,

00:45:19.660 I mean,

00:45:19.920 it cures

00:45:20.300 Trump's

00:45:20.900 biggest

00:45:21.400 problems.

00:45:22.220 Age cures

00:45:23.080 it as a

00:45:25.640 backup plan,

00:45:26.780 and the

00:45:27.900 knowledge

00:45:28.360 certain that

00:45:29.460 Trump is

00:45:29.840 getting the

00:45:30.260 right advice.

00:45:33.680 That's a

00:45:34.400 pretty strong

00:45:34.820 package.

00:45:36.180 Pretty strong

00:45:36.860 package.

00:45:37.820 And starting

00:45:38.840 out an

00:45:39.280 election by

00:45:39.860 having such

00:45:40.460 a strong

00:45:41.060 and popular

00:45:42.340 pick for a

00:45:42.980 vice president

00:45:43.460 candidate,

00:45:45.960 that says

00:45:46.980 a lot for

00:45:47.400 you.

00:45:47.540 Now,

00:45:49.120 what would

00:45:49.540 this set

00:45:50.660 up for

00:45:51.360 after Trump

00:45:52.980 has served

00:45:53.560 two terms?

00:45:55.300 It would

00:45:55.840 set DeSantis

00:45:56.440 up as

00:45:57.000 the heir

00:45:57.380 apparent,

00:45:58.420 which is

00:45:59.160 also good

00:45:59.660 if you're

00:46:00.320 Republican.

00:46:02.740 So,

00:46:03.400 to me,

00:46:03.960 I would

00:46:04.220 say the

00:46:04.640 most likely

00:46:06.360 outcome

00:46:06.780 would be

00:46:08.500 a vice

00:46:09.440 presidential

00:46:09.940 pick of

00:46:10.600 DeSantis

00:46:11.060 and Trump

00:46:12.620 as the

00:46:13.060 nominee.

00:46:14.140 Anything

00:46:14.420 could happen.

00:46:15.680 Still plenty

00:46:16.220 of time.

00:46:20.880 DeSantis's

00:46:21.320 wife has a

00:46:22.020 breast cancer

00:46:22.580 diagnosis,

00:46:23.280 you're saying?

00:46:24.020 I don't

00:46:24.540 know that

00:46:24.820 that would

00:46:25.080 stop his

00:46:25.600 political

00:46:26.120 march.

00:46:29.060 That would

00:46:29.500 be tragic.

00:46:30.640 It would

00:46:30.860 certainly

00:46:31.120 throw him

00:46:31.580 off his

00:46:31.880 game for

00:46:32.260 a little

00:46:32.460 while.

00:46:33.520 But I

00:46:34.160 feel like

00:46:34.940 they all

00:46:37.080 have problems

00:46:37.680 and they

00:46:38.240 all work

00:46:38.580 through them.

00:46:39.780 That's a

00:46:40.340 pretty big

00:46:40.700 one, but

00:46:41.080 I think

00:46:41.360 he would

00:46:41.600 probably

00:46:41.780 work through

00:46:42.240 that.

00:46:42.480 Here's

00:46:46.200 a story

00:46:46.620 that tells

00:46:48.260 you everything

00:46:48.600 you need

00:46:48.980 to know

00:46:49.240 about human

00:46:49.740 beings.

00:46:51.520 There was

00:46:51.880 a fellow

00:46:52.800 who did

00:46:53.140 an analysis

00:46:55.300 of Stanford

00:46:56.060 students who

00:46:57.300 ride bikes

00:46:58.040 and found

00:46:59.320 out that

00:46:59.740 there were

00:47:00.040 more bicycle

00:47:00.940 riders who

00:47:01.620 had masks

00:47:02.500 but no

00:47:03.680 helmets

00:47:04.180 than there

00:47:05.800 were helmets

00:47:07.180 and no

00:47:07.700 masks.

00:47:09.820 Let me

00:47:10.560 say it

00:47:10.860 again.

00:47:11.140 Stanford

00:47:13.220 students,

00:47:14.240 which if

00:47:14.680 you are

00:47:14.900 not aware,

00:47:16.140 would be

00:47:16.500 among the

00:47:17.080 smartest

00:47:17.480 human beings

00:47:19.120 in the

00:47:20.060 United States.

00:47:21.680 No,

00:47:22.580 the world.

00:47:24.680 Right?

00:47:25.300 If you

00:47:25.840 got into

00:47:26.280 Stanford,

00:47:27.440 you have

00:47:27.800 proven that

00:47:28.340 you're one

00:47:28.660 of the

00:47:28.900 smartest

00:47:29.180 people in

00:47:29.740 the,

00:47:30.040 no,

00:47:30.400 not the

00:47:30.680 United States,

00:47:31.940 the world.

00:47:34.080 So the

00:47:34.840 smartest

00:47:35.220 people in

00:47:37.120 the world

00:47:37.600 among

00:47:38.740 them

00:47:39.060 are more

00:47:42.220 likely to

00:47:43.360 wear a

00:47:43.660 mask

00:47:44.060 outdoors

00:47:44.700 on a

00:47:45.080 bicycle

00:47:45.380 with no

00:47:45.900 helmet

00:47:46.260 than a

00:47:47.420 helmet

00:47:47.660 and no

00:47:48.140 mask.

00:47:51.560 What's

00:47:52.040 happening

00:47:52.480 to us?

00:47:54.320 Well,

00:47:54.860 it's the

00:47:55.280 perfect story

00:47:55.880 to tell you

00:47:56.360 that we're

00:47:56.620 not making

00:47:57.060 our decisions

00:47:57.620 based on

00:47:58.160 data,

00:47:58.540 right?

00:47:59.340 It's not

00:47:59.740 based on

00:48:00.180 thinking,

00:48:01.000 it's not

00:48:01.260 based on

00:48:01.680 common sense,

00:48:02.960 it's not

00:48:03.240 based on

00:48:03.600 your IQ,

00:48:04.800 it's not

00:48:05.280 based on

00:48:05.760 science,

00:48:06.400 it's not

00:48:06.680 based on

00:48:07.080 your

00:48:07.240 political

00:48:07.640 party,

00:48:09.600 although

00:48:10.040 maybe there

00:48:10.660 was some

00:48:10.920 influence of

00:48:11.480 political

00:48:11.800 party,

00:48:12.220 that's

00:48:12.400 possible.

00:48:15.320 Yeah,

00:48:15.580 that's how

00:48:15.900 smart we

00:48:16.360 are.

00:48:17.040 As a

00:48:17.460 species,

00:48:18.020 this is

00:48:18.300 how smart

00:48:18.720 we are.

00:48:19.780 The best

00:48:20.420 of us.

00:48:22.120 The very

00:48:22.860 best of

00:48:23.480 us.

00:48:25.000 That's

00:48:25.180 our best

00:48:27.040 human beings

00:48:27.680 right there,

00:48:28.720 working

00:48:29.080 through the

00:48:29.540 statistics.

00:48:32.220 Well,

00:48:33.720 Dr. Fauci

00:48:35.180 has warned

00:48:35.680 that Christmas

00:48:37.040 might have

00:48:37.580 to be

00:48:37.840 canceled

00:48:38.120 this year,

00:48:39.880 at least

00:48:40.460 in terms

00:48:40.900 of visiting

00:48:41.360 your family.

00:48:42.900 So you

00:48:43.240 might not

00:48:43.620 be able

00:48:43.940 to visit

00:48:44.520 your family

00:48:44.960 for Christmas,

00:48:45.700 Dr. Fauci

00:48:46.240 says.

00:48:47.400 As soon

00:48:47.920 as he

00:48:48.160 said that,

00:48:48.620 his popularity

00:48:49.320 went up

00:48:49.760 35%.

00:48:50.820 No,

00:48:52.720 I'm just

00:48:53.040 joking.

00:48:54.760 But it's

00:48:55.200 kind of

00:48:55.480 funny,

00:48:56.180 because you

00:48:56.980 know,

00:48:57.360 somewhere in

00:48:57.840 the country

00:48:58.220 there's

00:48:58.600 somebody

00:48:58.880 who said,

00:48:59.740 please

00:49:00.220 cancel,

00:49:01.120 please

00:49:01.680 cancel

00:49:02.040 Christmas,

00:49:02.520 I can't

00:49:02.840 do another

00:49:03.320 Christmas with

00:49:04.480 my family.

00:49:05.680 Somewhere

00:49:06.260 somebody's

00:49:06.800 saying,

00:49:07.300 we like

00:49:08.460 that Dr.

00:49:09.020 Fauci.

00:49:09.780 Now,

00:49:09.980 is it a

00:49:10.320 coincidence

00:49:10.620 that Dr.

00:49:11.380 Fauci looks

00:49:13.360 very much

00:49:14.040 like somebody

00:49:15.440 you would

00:49:15.820 cast in

00:49:16.540 the role

00:49:17.000 of the

00:49:19.040 Grinch?

00:49:20.960 Why is it

00:49:21.900 that he is

00:49:22.720 acting like

00:49:23.300 the Grinch

00:49:23.920 and coincidentally

00:49:25.820 looks exactly

00:49:27.900 like the

00:49:28.420 person that

00:49:28.900 you would

00:49:29.400 cast as

00:49:30.340 the Grinch?

00:49:33.080 Just a

00:49:33.800 coincidence.

00:49:34.060 I'm seeing

00:49:36.440 lots of

00:49:36.880 statistics that

00:49:37.800 vaccination rates

00:49:39.160 are totally

00:49:39.980 unrelated to

00:49:40.700 infection rates

00:49:41.580 in various

00:49:42.720 countries and

00:49:43.460 counties.

00:49:43.960 Do you

00:49:44.120 believe that?

00:49:45.400 Do you

00:49:45.960 believe that

00:49:46.600 vaccination rates

00:49:48.440 are completely

00:49:49.180 unrelated,

00:49:50.360 no correlation

00:49:51.100 to how much

00:49:52.140 infections are

00:49:52.940 going on?

00:49:54.080 And therefore,

00:49:55.400 the implication

00:49:55.960 of this,

00:49:56.500 if true,

00:49:57.460 are that

00:49:57.920 vaccinations

00:49:58.460 don't make

00:49:58.960 any difference

00:49:59.660 to infection

00:50:00.200 rates.

00:50:00.580 Do you

00:50:01.920 think that's

00:50:02.420 proven because

00:50:03.120 you saw

00:50:03.580 graphs about

00:50:04.360 it on the

00:50:04.740 internet?

00:50:06.260 Twitter had

00:50:06.920 graphs about

00:50:07.540 it.

00:50:07.960 Is it

00:50:08.220 true?

00:50:09.360 I don't

00:50:09.940 think so.

00:50:11.160 I don't

00:50:11.580 think it's

00:50:11.900 even close

00:50:12.340 to true.

00:50:13.080 But you're

00:50:13.460 seeing these

00:50:13.860 graphs on

00:50:14.340 the internet

00:50:14.640 just like,

00:50:15.240 oh, here's

00:50:15.540 a fact.

00:50:16.740 No, I

00:50:17.220 don't think

00:50:17.480 any of it's

00:50:17.860 true.

00:50:19.720 Definitely

00:50:20.120 there's, so

00:50:21.700 the thing you

00:50:22.140 need to know

00:50:22.520 is that death

00:50:23.000 rates are

00:50:23.520 definitely

00:50:23.920 lower where

00:50:24.540 there are

00:50:24.800 more

00:50:24.960 vaccinations.

00:50:26.760 Death rates

00:50:27.500 definitely

00:50:28.220 lower.

00:50:29.280 But measuring

00:50:29.840 infections,

00:50:30.580 we're just so

00:50:31.000 bad at

00:50:31.380 measuring

00:50:31.680 infections,

00:50:32.360 who knows

00:50:32.680 what's going

00:50:33.080 on there?

00:50:34.160 Who knows?

00:50:35.340 But if death

00:50:35.940 rates are

00:50:36.380 plunging,

00:50:37.040 wherever there

00:50:37.700 are more

00:50:38.020 vaccinations,

00:50:38.940 something's

00:50:40.320 working.

00:50:45.540 All right.

00:50:46.440 Well, how

00:50:47.080 about that?

00:50:48.460 Looks like

00:50:48.960 that was

00:50:49.280 about all

00:50:49.660 I needed

00:50:49.940 to talk

00:50:50.320 about.

00:50:51.180 So this

00:50:51.740 was me

00:50:52.220 sleeping late

00:50:53.160 and having

00:50:53.540 no time

00:50:53.980 to prepare.

00:50:55.360 I think

00:50:55.800 you'll notice

00:50:56.240 that the

00:50:56.620 quality of

00:50:57.180 the product

00:50:57.700 completely

00:50:58.480 unchanged.

00:50:59.720 Completely

00:51:00.080 unchanged.

00:51:01.100 Let me

00:51:01.540 tell you

00:51:01.820 quickly a

00:51:03.400 little story

00:51:04.120 about something

00:51:05.040 I learned

00:51:05.580 that will be

00:51:06.080 a valuable

00:51:06.620 lesson for

00:51:07.240 you.

00:51:07.860 Are you

00:51:08.080 ready?

00:51:09.000 Valuable

00:51:09.400 lesson coming

00:51:10.220 up.

00:51:11.080 When I first

00:51:11.900 started cartooning

00:51:12.740 I was working

00:51:13.260 a day job

00:51:13.900 and I had

00:51:14.840 to do all

00:51:15.320 of my

00:51:15.600 cartooning

00:51:16.260 from 4.30

00:51:17.760 in the

00:51:18.020 morning to

00:51:18.580 roughly

00:51:19.300 6.00ish.

00:51:21.280 And if I

00:51:22.280 didn't finish

00:51:22.760 it, then there

00:51:23.380 wouldn't be a

00:51:23.780 cartoon that

00:51:24.320 day or

00:51:25.120 eventually it

00:51:25.920 wouldn't run.

00:51:26.280 So I

00:51:27.160 had to

00:51:27.460 do one

00:51:27.780 a day

00:51:28.020 no matter

00:51:28.400 what.

00:51:28.800 Some days

00:51:29.280 I would

00:51:29.560 oversleep

00:51:30.060 and have

00:51:30.420 only 30

00:51:31.000 minutes,

00:51:31.960 sometimes 15,

00:51:33.860 to devise

00:51:35.040 and do a

00:51:35.780 first draft

00:51:36.380 of a comic.

00:51:38.600 Sometimes I'd

00:51:39.360 have two

00:51:39.700 hours and

00:51:40.760 write something

00:51:41.240 pretty good.

00:51:42.580 But sometimes

00:51:43.220 I'd have 15

00:51:44.080 minutes or

00:51:44.560 10 minutes

00:51:45.200 and I'd

00:51:46.460 just say,

00:51:46.800 damn it,

00:51:47.400 I've got to

00:51:47.840 make something.

00:51:48.320 So I'd just

00:51:48.620 make something.

00:51:49.580 Just whatever.

00:51:50.720 I'd just

00:51:51.020 vomit something

00:51:52.500 on the

00:51:52.800 page.

00:51:54.760 Wait about

00:51:55.360 two months,

00:51:57.140 both the

00:51:57.740 vomited

00:51:58.540 10-minute

00:51:59.320 comic and

00:52:00.300 the one I

00:52:00.700 really was

00:52:01.140 proud of,

00:52:01.740 worked for

00:52:02.100 hours on

00:52:02.520 this one,

00:52:03.200 they would

00:52:03.560 run in

00:52:03.880 the papers.

00:52:05.380 Which one

00:52:05.960 do you think

00:52:06.260 people liked

00:52:06.740 more?

00:52:07.900 The one I

00:52:08.460 vomited in

00:52:09.160 10 minutes

00:52:09.720 or the one

00:52:11.040 that I was

00:52:11.320 really proud

00:52:11.760 of, put

00:52:12.080 some work

00:52:12.480 into it?

00:52:13.920 Yeah, you

00:52:14.360 know the

00:52:14.640 answer because

00:52:15.080 I'm priming

00:52:15.740 you for the

00:52:16.040 answer.

00:52:16.540 The answer

00:52:16.840 was actually

00:52:18.240 no difference.

00:52:19.720 So there

00:52:20.680 was no

00:52:20.980 difference.

00:52:22.160 Statistically

00:52:22.640 speaking, the

00:52:24.120 response for

00:52:24.880 the one that

00:52:25.300 I vomited in

00:52:26.100 10 minutes

00:52:26.600 exactly as

00:52:27.900 good as

00:52:29.420 the one I

00:52:29.980 spent hours

00:52:30.460 on.

00:52:31.240 The public

00:52:31.960 couldn't tell

00:52:32.340 the difference.

00:52:33.660 I thought I

00:52:34.280 could tell,

00:52:35.180 but it was

00:52:35.820 an illusion.

00:52:36.480 The public

00:52:36.800 couldn't tell

00:52:37.340 at all.

00:52:40.100 Likewise,

00:52:41.380 so when I

00:52:41.980 woke up this

00:52:42.480 morning and

00:52:42.880 said,

00:52:43.160 ugh, I

00:52:44.580 have literally

00:52:45.720 not enough

00:52:46.360 time to

00:52:47.180 prepare for

00:52:47.680 this.

00:52:48.100 It would

00:52:48.440 be

00:52:48.580 impossible.

00:52:50.040 And then

00:52:50.560 I said

00:52:50.860 to myself,

00:52:51.940 oh, that's

00:52:52.300 just an

00:52:52.620 illusion.

00:52:54.140 It's not

00:52:54.700 impossible.

00:52:55.680 In fact,

00:52:56.080 it's probably

00:52:56.380 easy.

00:52:57.520 It's a

00:52:57.820 complete illusion

00:52:58.520 that I

00:52:58.920 needed two

00:52:59.360 hours to

00:52:59.800 get ready

00:53:00.080 for this.

00:53:01.320 And so

00:53:01.640 in 15

00:53:02.220 minutes,

00:53:03.740 put it

00:53:04.480 on a

00:53:04.640 show.

00:53:05.660 If I

00:53:06.160 hadn't

00:53:06.360 told you

00:53:06.700 I

00:53:06.840 overslept,

00:53:07.520 do you

00:53:07.680 think you

00:53:07.960 could have

00:53:08.220 told the

00:53:08.520 difference?

00:53:09.600 Now, I'm

00:53:09.920 not saying

00:53:10.740 this was as

00:53:11.400 good as

00:53:11.740 every other

00:53:12.140 show or

00:53:12.500 anything,

00:53:12.960 right?

00:53:13.460 You all

00:53:13.940 have your

00:53:14.240 own opinions

00:53:14.660 about that.

00:53:15.340 But do you

00:53:15.720 think you

00:53:16.020 would have

00:53:16.260 known that I

00:53:18.440 have 15

00:53:18.680 minutes to

00:53:19.140 prepare?

00:53:20.540 No.

00:53:21.280 No, you

00:53:21.640 can't tell

00:53:22.200 the difference.

00:53:23.280 So, trust

00:53:24.820 me on this.

00:53:25.720 How many

00:53:26.200 of you don't

00:53:27.000 want to start

00:53:27.940 something because

00:53:28.600 you don't think

00:53:29.080 you'll do it

00:53:29.540 well?

00:53:30.300 You're not

00:53:30.620 prepared enough?

00:53:32.060 You're not

00:53:32.460 quite ready?

00:53:33.360 You're not

00:53:33.600 confident?

00:53:35.220 Do it.

00:53:37.180 Surprise

00:53:37.660 yourself.

00:53:38.760 What if it

00:53:39.240 doesn't work?

00:53:40.440 Well, then

00:53:40.820 try it again

00:53:41.200 later.

00:53:42.440 But if the

00:53:43.240 reason you're

00:53:43.700 not going

00:53:44.160 yet is because

00:53:45.360 you didn't

00:53:46.180 have enough

00:53:46.500 time, not

00:53:47.700 prepared,

00:53:48.440 don't think

00:53:49.100 you quite

00:53:49.600 have what

00:53:50.160 it takes,

00:53:51.440 you're not

00:53:53.020 good at

00:53:53.580 knowing when

00:53:54.000 you're ready.

00:53:55.300 You are

00:53:55.940 not good

00:53:56.740 at knowing

00:53:58.080 when you're

00:53:58.460 prepared.

00:53:59.680 Sometimes.

00:54:00.680 But as a

00:54:01.400 general statement,

00:54:02.360 you're not

00:54:02.600 good at it.

00:54:03.580 So sometimes

00:54:04.340 just ignore

00:54:06.020 your own brain

00:54:06.740 saying, I'm

00:54:07.240 not ready, I'm

00:54:07.780 not ready, and

00:54:08.880 just do it.

00:54:10.280 You will be

00:54:11.000 surprised how

00:54:11.800 often that

00:54:12.220 works.

00:54:12.840 And when it

00:54:13.300 doesn't work,

00:54:14.480 what do you

00:54:14.980 do then?

00:54:16.900 You learn

00:54:17.600 something.

00:54:19.020 You get

00:54:19.560 smarter, you

00:54:20.160 get tougher, you

00:54:21.200 take another

00:54:21.640 run at it, and

00:54:22.320 you're smarter

00:54:22.740 this time, and

00:54:23.340 then you get

00:54:23.740 it done.

00:54:24.600 So don't

00:54:25.100 worry about

00:54:25.480 not working.

00:54:27.020 Sometimes it's

00:54:27.980 just part of

00:54:28.440 the process to

00:54:29.060 working.

00:54:29.800 All right, that's

00:54:30.360 it for today, and

00:54:31.900 I will talk to

00:54:32.360 you tomorrow.

00:54:33.160 Got to run

00:54:33.740 and do my

00:54:34.600 thing.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 04, 2021

Episode 1519 Scott Adams： I Overslept, So God Knows What You're Going to See This Morning, But it Will Be Awesome

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