Episode 1525 Scott Adams： Can AI Spot Fake News For You？ And What if it Could？ Lots More.
Episode Stats
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Summary
In this episode of Coffee with Scott Adams, host Scott Adams talks about some of the most annoying things you can do to make your life a little better, including leaf blowers and when to quit your job. Plus, he talks about when to give up on your career and what to do about it.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
Well, good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and everything in between.
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It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams, and I think you know by now it's the best part of the living experience.
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In fact, a lot of zombies, a lot of dead people, ghosts, they also enjoy this program, so it's not just for the living.
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Don't get all, you know, like you're special or something.
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And if you'd like to take this to the next level, and I know you're that kind of people, that's who is attracted to Coffee with Scott Adams.
00:00:41.500
People who are willing to take it to the limit.
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And all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice, a canteen jug, or a flask, a vessel of any kind, fill it with your favorite liquid.
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The dopamine here of the day, the thing that makes everything better.
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Well, I'm wearing the swaddling blanket of comfort today.
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I'll tell you why, in a moment, at the proper time.
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Issue number one, most important issue, possibly in the entire world, leaf blowers.
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You don't really think that's a big problem, right?
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But I'm just going to tell you from my own experience, I lose an entire work day every week to leaf blowers.
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One entire day of creativity and productivity every week for my whole adult life to leaf blowers.
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Anybody else find you actually can't work when a leaf blower is outside?
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And the funny thing is, I guess they're being banned in some places, but probably not banned because of productivity.
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Nobody's ever liked leaf blowers, but usually it's because you're sleeping or you wanted to take a nap or you wanted to just not have any noise by your house.
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But what happens when everybody's working at home?
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If everybody's working at home, the leaf blower is going to take 20% of your productivity.
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It basically kills the day, especially if you have a neighbor.
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So you get yours, and then the neighbor starts in the afternoon, and you've got a full day of leaf blower.
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I think it's actually a gigantic problem that looks like a small one.
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Because each individual who's bothered by it just feels like an annoyance, and maybe you don't complain to anybody.
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So you've got millions and millions of people who are losing a day of work, and nobody knows that it's happening to other people.
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I have a feeling leaf blowers are taking something like, I don't know, 2% to 5% off the GDP.
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I mean, it could be that big, because you've got a lot of people working at home now, especially.
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Well, Madonna is promoting some kind of documentary or something.
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And if you've seen her, you know that she's bringing sexy back.
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And I asked myself, does there need to be an intervention?
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Because the very thing that made Madonna amazing is that she didn't care what you thought, and she was going to do it anyway.
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You know, her single-minded, I don't know, drive and ambition and all that are really what made her special, what made her succeed.
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You have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.
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And I feel like Madonna has, you know, she probably has lots of room left on her career, but I'm not sure that playing the sexy senior citizen was exactly the right way to play this.
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You know, I don't know who's advising Madonna, but I feel that the advice goes like this these days.
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You know, Madonna, if you're not too busy, I've been watching your latest promotions, and I'm just a little productive, positive, really not a criticism at all.
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I'm just saying that some people, not me, not me, but some people, feel as though maybe because your age and the weird way you look, I don't mean weird, I mean non-standard, I mean better than most people, but different, different.
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I don't say it's weird, not me, but some people are saying that, and they're cruel and awful.
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But I'm just wondering, just putting the idea out there that maybe you should, I'm saying just maybe rethink a little bit.
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I don't feel as though Madonna has good advice.
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Clearly there's nobody giving her honest opinion about what's going on here.
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Like there's nobody in her circle at all who can just say, you know, like I'm the one person you'll listen to, and maybe play this a little differently.
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And I think what bothers me about it is I'm such a big fan.
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And I think that she does have a second act, if you'd call it that, the second act.
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Yeah, well, yeah, Cher, maybe Cher went the same way.
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But I feel like she could be as substantial as ever.
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Maybe play a little more to her substance, if you know what I mean.
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Well, you know, we've all been making fun of TikTok and how it's destroying the world.
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It turns out that one of the things that TikTok does, and you could substitute Instagram and Snapchat for the same conversation.
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One of the things that TikTok does is it keeps all the narcissists busy.
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Now, you think I'm going to make a joke, but watch this.
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If you've studied narcissism, and by the way, I have a history of saying, first of all, it doesn't exist, and then becoming a complete convert.
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It wasn't exactly a change of opinion, but there was a change of understanding that there's more than one thing called narcissism.
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So the ones I was saying don't exist still don't exist.
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So I was never wrong about what I was talking about.
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What I didn't know, and this is an error on my part, is that the word narcissist is used in different senses.
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And there's a grandiose narcissist, and there's a vulnerable narcissist, and there's some other kinds, I guess.
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But one of the characteristics of narcissists is that they damage other people.
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The more time you spend with a narcissist, the more chance you're going to get damaged, because they do that.
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This is the vulnerable narcissist, not the grandiose.
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And to the degree that TikTok absorbs all of their time, so that the narcissist who would be out destroying other people ends up glued to a screen, interacting with other narcissists, to a large extent.
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And I'm wondering if it actually is helping in some way, because it takes them out of the conversation.
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You know, every moment that a vulnerable narcissist is on a device is a moment that they're not bothering you in person.
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There's a big sick out at the, where is it, the FAA?
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Maybe we've identified and isolated all the most dangerous people, and we'll have them just talking to each other.
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And the other great thing is that, if you understand narcissists...
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He paid $49.99 just to have this comment be prominent.
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It says, simulation theory could only ever occur to a white, upper-class boomer living in a McMansion.
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But please, tell us all about the vax, and tell us again about that one time you didn't get the promotion because a black existed.
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They imagine them telling them to get a vaccination, I guess.
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And tell us again about that one time you didn't get the promotion because a black existed.
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It was two careers in which I invested a tremendous number of years in time.
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And really it was more of three, it wasn't two.
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Because I lost two corporate jobs for being white and male.
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And just for your information, my bosses told me that directly.
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They told me, they called me into their offices with an actual meeting.
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A specific meeting just to tell me that I would never be promoted as far as I could predict.
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Because I was white and male and they needed to get some more diversity.
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Whoever asked the question for $49, do you think I just made that up?
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I've been saying it for years and I worked with hundreds of people.
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Hundreds and hundreds of people knew me if you take the years I worked at both corporations.
00:12:04.840
You don't think any one of those hundreds of people by now would have come forth and said,
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There was nothing like that happening in these companies during those days.
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Do you know why nobody has come forward to say that that didn't happen?
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Now, I also lost a TV career for being a white guy.
00:12:47.240
But it was renewed in a season that UPN decided to have,
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Which was a pretty good marketing idea, I thought.
00:12:58.820
Because it seemed like it was an underserved population.
00:13:04.340
So I thought, oh, we'll target a specific audience and that'll be good.
00:13:20.360
That was the weirdest text message I ever got while I'm live streaming.
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It's 100% real that white people of my generation were discriminated against.
00:13:39.680
We were told to our faces we couldn't be promoted.
00:13:44.520
And by the way, that's why I identify as black.
00:13:54.380
You can identify with whatever you feel the most connection to.
00:13:58.960
And because I've been massively racially discriminated in my life.
00:14:14.560
These are very direct, obvious discriminations.
00:14:18.160
And so, when I talk about, you know, maybe there is a way we could think of reparations.
00:14:25.320
When I talk about improving education for the black community.
00:14:29.140
When I talk about all the things Trump did for, you know, enterprise zones.
00:14:33.200
And other things that were good for the black community.
00:14:37.580
Because I do have, legitimately, a connection to that community.
00:14:50.060
I want to swear really badly, but I'm not going to do it.
00:15:00.180
We meaning anybody who was discriminated against, especially the black population.
00:15:07.720
Couldn't get a job, or keep a career, or get promoted, in my case, for your race in America.
00:15:23.560
Now, at the same time, I also think society had to do something about diversity.
00:15:39.640
And by the way, if you're imagining that I'm promoting that you should get vaccinated, that's never happened.
00:15:50.560
I'm wondering if there will ever be a free minds movement.
00:15:59.720
You know, there are a lot of people, let's say, health hackers or whatever, who are sort of organized, semi-organized, and they're testing all different things for their physical health.
00:16:09.740
You know, trying to, I don't know, fast, and try to take this supplement and that.
00:16:15.180
And I'm wondering if there will be a similar thing for people trying to avoid brainwashing and persuasion.
00:16:28.060
People just trying to figure out techniques, little hacks, to keep them from being brainwashed?
00:16:38.420
There might actually be, like, an organized movement at some point of people who are using the technology that they've learned.
00:16:50.600
For finding places that they have bias on their own and figuring out how it got there and figuring out how to get rid of it.
00:17:05.860
Speaking of that, there was a Gallup poll talking about trusting the news, and it turns out that the Democrats, during the Trump years, their trust in the major media went way up.
00:17:23.300
More trust in the media during the Trump administration.
00:17:26.500
Meanwhile, the independents and Republicans had less trust.
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Republicans had 11%, dropped to a new low, trusting the media.
00:17:36.000
And independents were in between, you know, 31%.
00:17:41.420
What was happening at the exact same years that Democrats were getting a far greater trust in the media than they ever had before?
00:17:54.140
Well, the fake Russia collusion hoax was mostly the news.
00:17:59.920
The fine people hoax happened then, the drinking bleach hoax, and lots of other hoaxes, small act to everything else.
00:18:08.200
So during a period of unambiguously massive fake news, the kind maybe we've never seen so much in one time.
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During the most obvious, grotesque, overwhelming fake news period, Democrats substantially improved their trust in the media that...
00:18:29.920
...would rate almost hard to believe the rate at which they were being lied to.
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Is it just they were hearing what they wanted to hear?
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As long as the fake news went their way, they were good with it.
00:19:04.000
Hey, I thought Trump was crazy, and now the news says Trump is crazy.
00:19:08.820
Feeling pretty good about myself, being all right like that and everything.
00:19:19.620
And what is it that makes something viral and makes it the news?
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What is the quality of a story that makes it really, really big news, the one you really pay attention to?
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What one quality of that story makes it the thing you can't look away from?
00:19:40.640
That's the primary quality that makes you watch the news, that it's not true.
00:19:52.660
Reality just doesn't serve up an interesting story every day that fits into this little box.
00:20:01.880
So there is a real thing, an observed effect, that the less likely it is to be true, the more attention it's going to get.
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So Democrats were just basically gassing themselves with their own fake news and loving every minute of it, apparently.
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Do you want to hear the most disturbing story of the day?
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This will be so disturbing that you'll be at a loss for words.
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I'll just read you his tweet so that I don't get anything wrong, right?
00:21:09.220
He says this week, so he works in AI, I guess, and writes about it.
00:21:14.580
He said, this week I interviewed our bright AI researcher working for one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies.
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And man, do I wish I knew the name of the company.
00:21:25.480
So it's an AI researcher who worked for a big pharma company.
00:21:29.300
I asked him why he wants to leave his current position, so he told me the story.
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His team had developed an accurate AI model predicting whether one of their expensive drugs would be effective for a patient or not.
00:21:42.060
You know, as you know, not every drug works with every patient the same way.
00:21:47.320
You could have a genetic component, maybe some other components.
00:21:53.000
But apparently they got really accurate results, and they could tell you in advance whether you should take this drug.
00:22:01.780
If you knew in advance a drug wouldn't work for you, you wouldn't waste months taking a drug that wasn't helping.
00:22:08.620
And then you would have maybe had a greater chance of getting onto a drug that does help or something that helps.
00:22:18.360
What a step forward in our ability to give people the right medicine.
00:22:22.520
So an AI model that can predict whether an expensive drug will work.
00:22:28.520
This should have been like a world headline, right?
00:22:39.080
So you develop this model, and then the implications are dramatic.
00:22:42.500
Instead of wasting a whole year taking the pill to find out it doesn't work,
00:22:46.340
AI predicts in advance the efficacy for each patient.
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They asked them to delete the project and never mention it to anyone.
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The AI model would strip them of huge profits generated by millions who take the drug and find out it's not effective for them.
00:23:15.080
Better let them suffer and pay the company instead.
00:23:27.580
Well, the first question you should ask is, is it true?
00:23:32.140
I just told you that fake news is a big problem.
00:23:40.120
What, um, there is one problem with the story, right?
00:23:58.780
What's the second part of the story that should raise a red flag?
00:24:03.620
Second part of the story that raises a red flag.
00:24:16.360
Well, he did tell someone, but he quit to do it, allegedly.
00:24:24.880
That is a wonderfully cynical but accurate comment.
00:24:29.720
Somebody said that the strangest part of the story that should tip you off as fake
00:24:50.160
But, you know, right there, you're going to, I don't know.
00:25:04.340
You know, whenever there's the rogue doctor, you know, you have to, you should put the odds
00:25:16.220
Well, probably did name the pharma company to the writer.
00:25:32.360
The tweet doesn't name him, but I don't know if he will always be anonymous.
00:25:36.480
But that's, that is exactly the right thing you should be looking at.
00:25:52.260
Do you know how often you should take what a disgruntled employee says as just fact?
00:26:06.640
Never would be a good time to take a disgruntled employee's opinion.
00:26:16.720
I'm just saying that in terms of credibility, it's kind of zero.
00:26:25.040
Right or wrong is a separate question from whether it's the kind of thing you should believe
00:26:31.700
I'm saying it's the kind of thing you shouldn't believe when you hear it.
00:26:45.760
Now, if it's real, and by the way, I don't want to cast any aspersions on Dr. Eli David.
00:26:55.580
I have no reason to think that he would have the story wrong or anything like that.
00:27:00.420
So I'm sure that the person he talked to is a real person that he really talked to,
00:27:08.700
So I think the basic questions are probably true.
00:27:10.940
And he doesn't work for a big media company that maybe is bought off in some way, as far as I know.
00:27:29.640
Do you think it would ever be possible to write an AI,
00:27:32.840
you know, create an AI that could spot fake news for you?
00:27:41.380
Could you ever write an AI program that would help you spot fake news?
00:28:07.000
We just came up with several objective standards that an AI could just remind you of.
00:28:27.180
But, you know, if this AI worked as well as reported,
00:28:31.900
it would be quite a surprise to me that somebody got that done.
00:28:37.300
And then there's the question of whether it's too on the nose.
00:28:41.420
Could an AI identify a story that was too on the nose?
00:28:46.820
Not directly, but it could do it by a poll of humans.
00:28:53.160
It could ask humans, hey, does this story match pretty much your suspicions?
00:28:59.880
Or does it not match the suspicions you already had?
00:29:03.680
And if the AI finds out that a whole bunch of people go, oh, yeah, that's exactly what I expected,
00:29:09.820
then the AI can say, oh, I have now demonstrated it's a little bit too on the nose.
00:29:14.600
It's a little bit too exactly what you thought was going to happen, isn't it?
00:29:20.100
The AI could say, okay, Fox News says it's true or false, and CNN says it's true or false.
00:29:28.700
And unless both of them agree on the facts, it's probably fake news.
00:29:37.180
If the left and the right don't agree on the basic facts, don't assume it's true.
00:29:43.080
Because the stuff that is fact, like a hurricane really hit, it's the same on every news.
00:29:49.200
The ones that you know are true are the same on every news.
00:29:52.280
It's only the ones that aren't true where one news item will report it differently.
00:30:03.860
I believe it could also spot fake news by the wording of the stories and also the outlets that carry it.
00:30:11.040
Because it could identify which outlets have had the most fake news.
00:30:14.760
There might be some subjectivity about seeding that information, but you could watch it over time.
00:30:22.180
I'll bet it could also determine fake news from the wording of the people who talk about it.
00:30:29.400
Because the way people write about stuff is almost a fingerprint, right?
00:30:34.300
When people are writing fake news stories, I'll bet you there's a signature in there somewhere.
00:30:38.740
A pattern, a way they talk about things that's different.
00:30:49.040
You thought there was no monster under the bed?
00:31:00.780
Well, he's been back for a while, but it's increasing.
00:31:05.180
He's not announcing, but he's sort of walking us up to the line of announcing.
00:31:17.520
More than fact checkers, we need to see that the story is framed correctly.
00:31:22.040
Somebody says Tim Pool is doing something like that?
00:31:24.720
I don't know about that effort, but I've been hearing about it in the comments.
00:31:28.200
So Trump's back, and the news is happy and horrified, because they've got something to talk about.
00:31:36.300
But they're horrified, I tell you, they're horrified.
00:31:38.980
And I guess Trump is doing this trick again, where he's putting the blacks for Trump,
00:31:44.180
who are wearing the T-shirts that say blacks for Trump, behind him on the stage.
00:31:54.340
Now, when he was running the first time, and he did that, I said,
00:31:59.800
well, at least it's visual, and people can see some diversity back there,
00:32:06.960
But obviously it looked a little artificial, right?
00:32:10.140
Nobody thought that they just spontaneously showed up and got good seats, right?
00:32:14.580
Even though you knew it was artificial, because it was visual, it probably still worked.
00:32:26.280
But a lot of things that politicians do when they run is political and fake.
00:32:32.240
So it was political and it was fake, but maybe it worked, just because it was visual.
00:32:37.360
Yeah, whether they were paid or not, it probably still was a good look.
00:32:42.900
I mean, I feel like it's just so obviously, I don't know.
00:32:52.440
And I feel like it's just maybe working against them right now.
00:32:57.540
Pandering, or, I don't know, a little too on the nose.
00:33:07.420
There was a trending hashtag that said, Civil War is coming.
00:33:14.700
I think this was probably a Trump supporter or something.
00:33:17.620
It was one person that started trending on social media.
00:33:32.800
Yeah, lots of protesting and complaining and, you know, we might be even more divided.
00:33:45.940
The reason that there's no Civil War coming is that not enough people want it.
00:33:49.420
If we were anywhere near a lot of people wanting it, well, then maybe.
00:34:00.780
Mike Pompeo is making noise as if he's going to primary Trump run against them.
00:34:12.960
I feel like the Republicans should run a primary.
00:34:19.880
I think given just the age of Trump alone and, you know, the controversy which he's created,
00:34:27.200
I think he needs to be primaried for the good of Trump as well as the nation.
00:34:33.320
Because I think Trump needs to beat the field again to really have that legitimacy that he had the first time.
00:34:46.960
But, I don't know, I think maybe the system requires it this time.
00:34:55.020
You know, if he were a less controversial character and younger, because age, I think, has to be factored in,
00:35:01.140
then I'd say, no, he's, you know, he's earned his place at the top.
00:35:08.760
But just for the benefit of the voters, I'd like to have him stress test a little bit.
00:35:27.060
But I feel like the system requires a little push.
00:35:31.640
You know, you need a little competition in the system.
00:35:34.960
Pompeo, I don't have a strong opinion about him one way or another.
00:35:57.180
So, Jim Acosta is doing this opinion-y thing on CNN now.
00:36:03.240
And here's the thing that you have to be bothered by.
00:36:06.820
When you watch Fox News, the person reading the news is obviously a news person.
00:36:14.760
And the people doing the opinion stuff are obviously opinion people.
00:36:27.240
But CNN likes to have that a little bit more gray.
00:36:32.800
So, here's Jim Acosta, famous for covering the White House under Trump.
00:36:39.540
But now he's gone full opinion, at least on this show.
00:36:46.100
I don't think you should, just as a production note,
00:36:51.900
I think your news people need to be walled off from your opinion people a little bit.
00:37:00.260
I feel like people are going to take that as news a little bit more than they would if it were someone else.
00:37:10.300
Not a big problem, but something to keep an eye on.
00:37:19.500
And he said, Tucker Carlson, I mean, let's just say he's a bad person.
00:37:25.200
And he goes on claiming that he spouts off white nationalist talking points.
00:37:34.260
He does say things that are compatible with what other people that are controversial
00:37:40.940
and you think should be condemned and I think should be condemned.
00:37:46.780
But just the fact that we humans have a lot in common with each other.
00:37:52.100
Yeah, everybody's going to have something that's in common with a group they don't like.
00:37:59.860
Do you think that Biden doesn't say some things that some bad people agree with?
00:38:06.300
I'm sure he says things that bad people agree with.
00:38:14.140
Just the fact that bad people agree with you on some part of what you say,
00:38:20.540
It is not your fault that people you think are bad agree with some small part of what you say.
00:38:31.580
The American Medical Association has a note about ivermectin.
00:38:38.020
And it's informing doctors how to respond if their clients, their patients, ask them for ivermectin.
00:38:48.360
And it goes on to say that ivermectin is not proven.
00:38:52.660
And that as an unproven drug, you know, maybe don't recommend it.
00:39:03.640
So the AMA says we don't have evidence that ivermectin works.
00:39:08.600
So therefore, they're not recommending that it be prescribed.
00:39:11.880
But they are saying that if your patient wants it,
00:39:15.760
you should refer them to one of the ongoing ivermectin trials.
00:39:33.460
Weren't we told that ivermectin definitely doesn't work by the medical community?
00:39:44.400
Well, isn't the established medical community...
00:39:48.320
I know you might have different opinions, and there are rogue doctors, et cetera.
00:39:52.140
But isn't the established view that ivermectin has been proven to not work,
00:40:03.220
And the AMA is saying, well, if your patient wants to do it,
00:40:08.600
What doctor who believes that we know it doesn't work
00:40:15.280
should tell his patient to take it anyway for the trial
00:40:31.100
If the official belief is that we know it doesn't work,
00:40:41.020
Don't you think the people who are funding the trials
00:40:45.640
oh, darn, we already found out it doesn't work.
00:40:49.360
Let's cut the expense of the trial right now and wind this up.
00:40:55.540
because there's no reason to get a result in the trial,
00:41:00.140
because all the other trials have shown it doesn't work.
00:41:03.880
This is another example where we're clearly being lied to.
00:41:23.040
and people who are real professionals in this field,
00:41:31.140
If they're not sure, why do you have to be sure?
00:41:52.880
the benefit of ivermectin has not been demonstrated,
00:42:01.900
As far as I know, it has not been demonstrated.
00:42:08.520
You know, there's plenty of things that tell you maybe.
00:42:15.680
And, of course, given that the risk of it is low,
00:42:26.500
Hey, here's something that I didn't know until today.
00:42:32.020
We all know that the vaccinations could wear off, correct?
00:42:38.340
We all know that the vaccinations could wear off.
00:42:45.280
And that antibodies can diminish over time, right?
00:43:04.260
If you hear that your antibodies are decreasing over time,
00:43:17.980
It turns out there are two kinds of resistance, let me call it.
00:43:25.820
There are two ways that having some kind of prior antibodies help you.
00:43:33.300
Number one is keeping it from getting into your body in the first place
00:43:38.340
So there's sort of an initial defense that keeps you from getting it in the first place.
00:43:45.800
Which means that your initial defense will let it in.
00:43:50.100
You will more likely, after the immunity goes down,
00:44:04.140
So the first kind, which is you're going to get it,
00:44:11.100
But the other kind has much more lasting permanence.
00:44:16.500
And the other kind is the kind that keeps you from dying.
00:44:19.080
So the good kind, we got, because it's keeping you from dying.
00:44:26.300
The other kind, where it's keeping you from getting it in the first place,
00:44:42.080
but your ability to prevent serious illness was still solid.
00:45:04.940
out of control and crash your hospitals and stuff like that.
00:45:08.420
So you want your good news to, you know, be moderate good news.
00:45:22.140
Imagine if you could have designed this on paper.
00:46:04.260
But your criticism needs to be better than that.
00:46:27.760
And we don't even know if it's good news or bad news.
00:46:53.700
how we can break them and solve systemic racism.
00:47:04.820
and they ran on trying to bring in black voters
00:47:07.840
to solve systemic racism via the school system,
00:47:15.960
I think a Republican could beat Trump in the primaries
00:47:31.600
And the same interest in reducing systemic racism
00:48:28.240
Well, I think Trump is running against mandates,
00:50:50.100
how many people think this is a true statement?