Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1533 Scott Adams： I'll Tell You About the Time I Met Colin Powell and More

00:00:00.000 Bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum. 0.97

00:00:06.660 Good morning, everybody.

00:00:09.380 And in a moment, YouTube will be up to speed and...

00:00:14.800 Now, welcome to the best thing that's ever happened to anybody, anywhere.

00:00:20.860 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:22.720 And it's a highlight of not only your day, not only your week and your year,

00:00:27.520 but your entire life.

00:00:29.040 Nay, the history of civilization.

00:00:31.560 That's how good it is.

00:00:33.400 With talent on loan from God, I know what you're thinking.

00:00:37.680 You're thinking, I stole that from Rush Limbaugh.

00:00:40.580 No, no.

00:00:41.980 When God loans talent, and then the person using it doesn't need it anymore,

00:00:47.640 it goes back to God, and then God's like, well, I got all this talent.

00:00:52.100 Got to give it to somebody.

00:00:53.200 I think I'll lend it out again.

00:00:55.320 So I sensed an opportunity, and I said to myself,

00:00:58.360 where can I get all that Rush Limbaugh talent that he was borrowing from God?

00:01:03.880 So I went to God directly, made a deal, because I'm kind of a deal maker.

00:01:09.100 And now I'm a talent on loan for God until he takes it back, which could be any moment.

00:01:15.400 How would you like to make this moment even more special than it is?

00:01:18.600 I mean, really, how could it be?

00:01:21.240 But watch this.

00:01:22.780 We can take this to another level.

00:01:24.720 Yeah.

00:01:25.260 You think you're having a good time now?

00:01:27.140 You haven't seen anything.

00:01:28.900 This gets so much better.

00:01:30.720 Watch this.

00:01:31.500 All you need is a cup or a mug, a glass, a tanker, a salad, a salad, a canteen jug, a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:01:36.220 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:01:38.120 Feel the excitement.

00:01:39.980 Feel the excitement.

00:01:42.000 Do you feel it?

00:01:43.080 Chills, right?

00:01:44.000 This is the simultaneous sip.

00:01:47.240 And it's the dopamine hit of the day.

00:01:50.440 It's the unparalleled pleasure.

00:01:52.520 And it's going to happen now.

00:01:54.580 Go.

00:01:58.760 Ooh, ooh, what's happening?

00:02:00.580 Oh.

00:02:01.720 Oh, ah.

00:02:04.000 I got such a surge of antibodies there for a moment.

00:02:07.000 It was disconcerting.

00:02:08.800 I didn't know what was going on.

00:02:10.920 But now, ooh, I can feel it now.

00:02:12.620 Oh, those antibodies coming online.

00:02:15.360 Ooh.

00:02:17.040 I'll tell you.

00:02:18.340 Science has proven that if you get three vaccination shots plus a cup of coffee, it's very unlikely you'll die from COVID.

00:02:28.660 Have you heard that?

00:02:29.400 This is the newest science.

00:02:30.480 If you have three vaccination shots or natural immunity plus vaccinations and a cup of coffee, your odds of dying from COVID, so small, I wouldn't even worry about it.

00:02:46.640 Yeah, that's how good it is.

00:02:47.680 I just saw that there's a company called Framery selling a product that the world needs desperately.

00:02:57.280 It's a cubicle for your house.

00:02:59.280 It's actually like an enlarged phone booth, a silent chamber, so you can make your phone calls without having to hear the rest of the family, I guess, do your Zoom calls in there, too.

00:03:13.940 That's right.

00:03:14.520 It's about time somebody made a cubicle for your house because the only thing good about working at home, well, actually, there's lots of things good about working at home, but it does get you out of the cubicle until you buy a cubicle for your home and put yourself back in it.

00:03:30.580 Oh, I can't stand being outside of the cubicle.

00:03:34.480 I need one for my home.

00:03:36.420 I have to admit, I kind of liked how it looked, thinking of getting one, because for all those phone calls you make that you don't want anybody to hear, pretty good.

00:03:48.340 Pretty good idea.

00:03:50.700 Well, China launched a hypersonic nuclear missile into low orbit, I guess.

00:03:58.360 Or did they?

00:03:59.240 Or did they?

00:04:02.180 Well, we have two versions of the story.

00:04:04.120 One is that they were testing a nuclear missile that would go into space and it would be hard to track and hard to thwart if you're the opponent.

00:04:14.000 But when asked about it, China said, that's no weapon.

00:04:18.580 That's just a rocket.

00:04:20.020 We're just testing a spacecraft.

00:04:23.120 So what was it?

00:04:25.420 Was it a nuclear weapon they were testing?

00:04:29.240 Or were they just doing some space testing?

00:04:33.340 Testing on a spacecraft?

00:04:35.260 Or is it really the same thing?

00:04:38.660 Is it the same thing?

00:04:40.380 Because it seems to me that if you got really good at sending a spacecraft into low Earth orbit,

00:04:46.020 you could send something else into low Earth orbit, couldn't you?

00:04:51.040 Couldn't you?

00:04:51.440 So I'm not so sure that the either or of it's a spacecraft versus it's a weapon, not so different.

00:05:00.960 Now, remember I told you that we can't possibly have any hope of having some power in space unless we have a robust nuclear energy program domestically.

00:05:14.420 Because you would need that skill set to build nuclear engines that power space, and you're not going to have, you know, it's not going to be wind power in space, etc.

00:05:23.040 It's going to be nuclear.

00:05:24.100 So once Congress heard, let me ask you this.

00:05:31.860 One of the things I tried to add to the nuclear energy conversation is the notion that you had to do it for defense purposes.

00:05:42.240 For military purposes, you absolutely had to have a strong nuclear energy program domestically.

00:05:50.020 Because you had to build that skill set to take it into space, and if you give up space, you've given up everything in the long run.

00:05:57.640 So was there ever a chance that we would not go as strong for nuclear energy domestically?

00:06:06.180 The answer is there wasn't.

00:06:07.700 It was always going to go in this direction, but it took, it would require that the stuff that, you know, Elon Musk is doing and Jeff Bezos is doing and Richard Branson,

00:06:20.500 it would require that activity to make us hyper-aware that space is important strategically.

00:06:27.700 So that happened, right?

00:06:29.420 So we had so much attention about these low-earth, you know, low-orbit stuff, that now we're all thinking about going to Mars and everything.

00:06:36.540 And that's all Musk, that's all Bezos, that's all Richard Branson, mostly Musk, I think.

00:06:43.940 So once you knew that we would be thinking about really colonizing space and not just dicking around a little bit there,

00:06:51.440 but getting serious about having a space presence, once that was a given,

00:06:57.340 it was guaranteed that we would have to have a domestic nuclear program that was quite robust,

00:07:04.260 and they would have to be reinvigorated, because the military requirement is an open-and-shut discussion.

00:07:16.340 You know, as soon as you take somebody who knows what they're talking about, and I'll bet this happened, by the way,

00:07:20.740 I'll bet you somewhere in Congress there was a general who said this to Congress,

00:07:26.400 probably in direct language, some version of, we need to have a domestic energy program for nuclear,

00:07:33.140 or just give up.

00:07:35.420 Because the alternative is, you just give up being a superpower.

00:07:39.360 That's it.

00:07:40.240 It's binary.

00:07:41.560 You either have that capability, or you just stop being a superpower 20 years out, or whenever it happens.

00:07:47.880 So there was no chance it was going to go any other way, but I hope that those advocating for it made it happen faster.

00:07:57.540 I'm going to have a little recorded interview with Bjorn Lomborg this week.

00:08:05.400 I'll release it probably pretty quickly after I make it.

00:08:10.300 And he also is one of the first people talking about climate change and the economics of it.

00:08:15.840 So that'll be interesting, sort of related to this.

00:08:21.340 I understand that our intelligence agencies were completely surprised that China had the capability

00:08:26.960 to launch this hypersonic spacecraft and or missile.

00:08:33.000 That seems like a pretty big thing to miss, doesn't it?

00:08:37.260 Really?

00:08:38.040 Our intelligence agencies really didn't know that this was on the board?

00:08:42.500 But maybe they did, and they just can't tell us that they knew.

00:08:48.740 Because if China knew that we knew, maybe that would give up our sources somehow.

00:08:55.020 I'm not sure we're surprised, but the public was.

00:08:58.780 Well, Jon Stewart is making news.

00:09:00.360 He's got a new show.

00:09:01.440 So he's been promoting it, I guess, talking to a lot of people.

00:09:04.440 Is it my imagination, or is Jon Stewart, didn't he just push Bill Maher off the page for the first weekend?

00:09:14.800 You know how every weekend the headlines would be, well, Bill Maher said on Friday, Bill Maher said this.

00:09:23.300 But this week it's all about Jon Stewart.

00:09:26.420 It's Jon Stewart.

00:09:27.100 I feel like Bill Maher is like the poor man's Jon Stewart.

00:09:31.000 And now Jon Stewart is back, and it just, like, pushed Bill Maher off the page.

00:09:36.180 Because in some ways they have something in common, which is they're both independent thinkers,

00:09:40.640 who you imagine lean left, but they're willing to criticize the left as well as the right.

00:09:45.480 So they are very productive people that way.

00:09:49.240 But apparently Jon Stewart made some news because he was unwilling to say that Biden's doing a good job.

00:09:58.280 He basically said nobody's doing a good job, including Biden.

00:10:02.340 So if Jon Stewart is lost to the left, or as it's reported,

00:10:10.720 he pointedly declined to endorse President Joe Biden for doing an effective job,

00:10:15.800 and he said, quote, I don't think anybody is.

00:10:19.240 So that's a pretty fair statement.

00:10:25.980 But he's got a lot of smart things to say,

00:10:28.340 and it seemed to me that there was a giant opening for a Jon Stewart, don't you think?

00:10:34.960 Do you think he's going to run for office?

00:10:37.840 What do you think?

00:10:39.620 I feel as if Jon Stewart might be,

00:10:45.040 might be angling toward running for office.

00:10:48.460 He's well-informed, he's popular, he can do the communication part.

00:10:54.000 The right isn't going to hate him.

00:10:56.320 I don't think the right hates him, right?

00:10:58.120 They might not agree with him on stuff.

00:10:59.980 But he generally follows the data, doesn't he?

00:11:04.560 I mean, when he's doing his act, you know, if he's doing the act, that's different.

00:11:08.600 That's supposed to be biased.

00:11:10.000 But I feel like he has a weird ability to appeal to both sides if he wanted to.

00:11:17.580 He could be dangerous.

00:11:19.000 Dangerous in the sense that he could win if he ran for office.

00:11:22.540 I think he has exactly the right skill set.

00:11:26.160 Exactly the right skill set.

00:11:27.680 Could be interesting.

00:11:30.460 Keep an eye on that.

00:11:33.540 I saw a suggestion that we should call the vaccinations, the ones for COVID, shots, not vaccines.

00:11:41.880 What do you think of that?

00:11:42.980 Now, we could call it the jab or the shot.

00:11:45.180 But what do you think of that as a compromise for those who say,

00:11:48.820 no, stop calling it a vaccination because it doesn't completely vaccinate?

00:11:54.140 Let's just call it the shot.

00:11:55.360 Now, doesn't that work for everybody?

00:11:58.860 Because there's nobody who would argue that it's delivered by a shot.

00:12:02.760 But then you get out of the hole, did we promise you it would be 100% or not?

00:12:08.360 Well, it looks like everybody likes that idea.

00:12:11.660 That might be the best idea I've ever suggested here.

00:12:14.100 It wasn't my idea, by the way.

00:12:15.680 This came for me from a gentleman on Twitter just moments ago.

00:12:22.480 All right, let's call it the shot.

00:12:23.800 Let's call it the shot.

00:12:27.460 Yes, not my idea.

00:12:28.680 That is correct.

00:12:29.980 That was somebody else's idea.

00:12:31.700 But I like it.

00:12:34.160 I was alerted to a 2020 study, so it's been around a while.

00:12:37.840 It's a preprint, meaning it hasn't been peer-reviewed.

00:12:41.880 There's no randomized control trial here.

00:12:45.440 But interesting nonetheless.

00:12:47.920 Nonetheless.

00:12:48.260 And I want to give you, like, a long wind-up before I tell you this, because it's about a vitamin D study and latitude.

00:12:58.820 Here's the long wind-up.

00:13:00.360 I'm pretty sure that intelligence is mostly pattern recognition, which is why I'm also sure that we can build artificial intelligence that really seems like humans, because all we are is pattern recognition, but we're not very good at it.

00:13:18.300 And when we do it poorly, we become bigots and racists and misogynists and misenvious and whatever-ish you want to think about.

00:13:29.300 So we have to use pattern recognition because that's what our brain is.

00:13:33.800 It's like a lawnmower has to mow lawns.

00:13:36.820 Your lawnmower can't wash dishes.

00:13:38.820 It's just not made for that.

00:13:40.520 Your brain is just a pattern recognition machine, and it doesn't know how to turn off.

00:13:44.340 It can't not do it.

00:13:45.860 It can do it poorly.

00:13:47.700 It can do it very poorly, especially when it's about judging people.

00:13:52.240 But it can't turn off.

00:13:54.040 Now, let me give you a story that makes me sound good, so it will make you really disgusted pretty soon.

00:14:00.320 But if you can't handle that, you probably shouldn't be watching any of my content.

00:14:06.920 So let this be a warning to you.

00:14:11.300 If you can't handle somebody saying, I'm good at this thing, but I'm bad at this other thing, if they're both true,

00:14:20.300 if you can't handle that because it requires that somebody says they're good at something,

00:14:24.760 at the same time they're saying they're bad at something else,

00:14:27.320 if you can't handle that, this is not the content for you.

00:14:31.120 So just leave now.

00:14:33.180 All right, so years ago, and I may have told this story before somewhere,

00:14:37.920 I was working for the phone company,

00:14:39.960 and they were really good at training employees in a whole variety of skills.

00:14:44.080 One of the best experiences you'll ever have, weirdly, was working for the phone company when I did.

00:14:49.600 They would train you in everything from marketing to listening skills to reasoning skills,

00:14:56.120 all kinds of stuff, really good, too.

00:14:58.300 And one of the things that they brought in was a class we were required to take on critical thinking

00:15:05.800 and decision-making in complexity.

00:15:10.200 Decision-making in complexity.

00:15:11.960 So we were taught a rigorous process where you'd make a matrix and you'd put down all the variables

00:15:20.840 and you'd systematically rule out things.

00:15:23.740 You're like, well, if you imagine this was true, we can rule that out because of this fact.

00:15:29.800 So it was about ruling out things in complicated situations until you'd narrowed it down to what mattered.

00:15:36.280 So then we broke into teams and we were going to work on a specific question,

00:15:43.160 like a task that each team would have to work on.

00:15:46.580 And it was based on a real-life event that I'd not heard of at the time.

00:15:51.080 Maybe you hadn't either.

00:15:52.180 There was an airline that was trying to solve a mystery

00:15:55.640 that some but not all of their flight attendants were getting rashes,

00:16:01.640 like a red rash on their chest.

00:16:03.600 And they would get it near the beginning of flights

00:16:06.400 and they were trying to figure out what was causing it.

00:16:11.240 And it was just totally bedeviling them

00:16:14.060 because every time they thought they knew what was causing it,

00:16:18.420 they could rule that out.

00:16:20.340 And so we were given the task of figuring out,

00:16:24.460 just the way the airline did, what was causing it.

00:16:27.440 And what we were supposed to do is listen to this complicated story

00:16:33.200 with lots of variables, put it in our framework that they had taught us,

00:16:38.280 the matrix, and work for an hour or so.

00:16:40.720 And we were warned that a lot of people would never get the right answer.

00:16:43.880 It was actually designed to be complicated enough

00:16:46.560 that the instructor said,

00:16:48.600 some of you are just never going to get it.

00:16:50.820 But some of you might, and then you'll learn something.

00:16:52.980 So we go into our breakout rooms and we read the study.

00:16:57.780 And the study says lots of stuff, but among the stuff it said,

00:17:02.440 it said that the rash was affecting women but not men.

00:17:08.000 So that's one clue.

00:17:10.020 It was affecting some flights but not others.

00:17:15.300 So it was only women. 0.89

00:17:16.700 It was only at the beginning of the flight.

00:17:18.340 And it was only some flights.

00:17:22.780 Other flights never happened.

00:17:24.760 They would have zero cases on some flights,

00:17:27.060 even with the same flight attendant.

00:17:29.780 So what was it?

00:17:31.760 So we were supposed to look through all of the options,

00:17:34.900 except I read it and I said to myself,

00:17:37.420 wait a minute.

00:17:39.180 All of the flights in which it happens go over water.

00:17:43.820 Oceans.

00:17:44.220 All of the flights where it doesn't happen are not over water.

00:17:49.320 Just something I noticed as a pattern.

00:17:52.120 Now, they didn't call this pattern out.

00:17:53.840 It was just something I saw.

00:17:55.240 It was like, huh, seems like the ones that go over water have the problem.

00:17:59.720 The second one is it was only women. 0.75

00:18:02.940 What's the difference between women and men besides all of their biology? 1.00

00:18:07.960 The clothes they wear.

00:18:09.400 They wear different clothes.

00:18:11.700 Specifically, women wear a top which might be a little bit open at the top. 1.00

00:18:16.720 In other words, the part that got the so-called rash

00:18:23.300 was exposed on women but not on men

00:18:26.620 because men have their shirts closed.

00:18:29.240 So that was the most obvious thing.

00:18:31.100 One was exposed and one wasn't.

00:18:33.620 One was over water and one wasn't.

00:18:36.920 Thank you.

00:18:38.780 Of course, I'm leading you right to the answer,

00:18:41.160 so it's easier the way I led you to it.

00:18:43.820 Yes.

00:18:44.680 So the answer was that the new life vests,

00:18:48.140 because they got new life vests,

00:18:49.740 when they were demonstrated,

00:18:51.100 and they only demonstrated them when they were going over water,

00:18:54.220 the women would put them on 0.99

00:18:55.540 and it would touch against their open chest area

00:18:59.500 and they would just rub off.

00:19:01.220 So it wasn't a real rash.

00:19:02.260 It was actually just the color coming off of the preservers.

00:19:06.960 Now, here's the story.

00:19:09.700 We were supposed to spend an hour putting this into a matrix

00:19:12.700 and working through this process,

00:19:14.740 but I read the story and I said,

00:19:17.640 huh, looks like it's probably the life preservers.

00:19:22.420 I mean, I just read the story and looked at it and said,

00:19:25.040 looks like probably life preservers are the problem. 0.75

00:19:27.420 So when the rest of the team heard that,

00:19:30.800 they said, huh, let's see if that would make sense.

00:19:34.180 And it made sense with all the facts.

00:19:36.220 So we said, well, let's just take it back to the instructor

00:19:39.440 and see if this is the right answer.

00:19:41.320 So about five minutes into the process,

00:19:43.660 we go back and say,

00:19:44.840 we think this is the answer, it's the life preservers.

00:19:47.480 And the instructor looks at me and he said,

00:19:51.740 you cheated.

00:19:54.820 Because nobody's ever solved this before.

00:19:56.720 At least quickly.

00:19:58.540 I think some people got the right answer.

00:20:00.300 But nobody had ever solved it quickly.

00:20:02.260 Usually you had to work on it for an hour or so.

00:20:04.740 And he actually accused me of cheating.

00:20:06.820 He said, you've read this story in the news, haven't you?

00:20:09.460 And I hadn't.

00:20:10.980 I'd never heard of it.

00:20:14.400 And so,

00:20:15.640 how often does this happen to you?

00:20:18.860 The only things you get in trouble for

00:20:20.700 are the things you didn't really do.

00:20:22.840 I almost got fired.

00:20:24.100 You know,

00:20:26.540 it actually became sort of like a risky situation.

00:20:29.960 Because it looked like I'd done something pretty sketchy.

00:20:32.920 Which I hadn't.

00:20:34.020 I just read it and it looks like it's the life preservers to me.

00:20:37.400 Now,

00:20:38.640 take this story.

00:20:41.380 All right,

00:20:41.600 this is just a priming story.

00:20:43.440 It has nothing directly to do with what I'm going to talk about next.

00:20:46.380 Except for the priming part.

00:20:47.840 When the pandemic struck,

00:20:51.960 and I think many of you can be my witness for this, right?

00:20:54.820 So I need a witness for this.

00:20:56.760 Because without a witness,

00:20:58.100 you're never going to believe it.

00:20:59.940 At the very beginning of the pandemic,

00:21:02.620 I looked at where it was happening

00:21:04.500 and who was getting hit the hardest.

00:21:06.340 And said to myself,

00:21:07.580 this looks a lot like a vitamin D problem.

00:21:11.380 Because it looks like

00:21:12.500 all the places that have vitamin D shortages

00:21:14.760 are getting hit.

00:21:17.140 And that would include places with lots of pollution.

00:21:20.160 Like Wuhan and like Iran. 0.98

00:21:24.140 Tehran, for example.

00:21:25.800 And then when you looked at places like,

00:21:27.780 at the time,

00:21:28.460 we thought Sweden was doing better.

00:21:30.000 That's questionable.

00:21:31.620 But at the time,

00:21:32.980 people said,

00:21:33.780 hey, but what about Sweden?

00:21:35.940 You know,

00:21:36.140 where is their vitamin D?

00:21:37.180 It should be low because of their latitude, right?

00:21:39.660 But it turns out they supplement.

00:21:41.380 The Swedes all supplement 1.00

00:21:44.940 because they have low vitamin D.

00:21:47.100 So the outcome is that

00:21:48.720 they probably have pretty good vitamin D

00:21:50.160 because they supplement.

00:21:52.360 And so others noticed the same, right?

00:21:56.120 I think others maybe made the same observation.

00:21:59.680 But apparently it's,

00:22:01.180 there's at least this one preprint study.

00:22:03.660 So remember,

00:22:04.220 preprint study is the lowest level of credibility.

00:22:08.040 Everybody got that?

00:22:08.800 It's the lowest level of credibility,

00:22:11.780 the highest level being the randomized controlled trials,

00:22:14.780 which was not this.

00:22:16.700 So a study looked at,

00:22:18.900 this was in 2020,

00:22:20.540 and it looked at a bunch of stuff

00:22:21.960 and did find almost a perfect correlation

00:22:24.860 between latitude and vitamin D levels and outcomes.

00:22:29.560 One that's so strong

00:22:30.800 that it would be hard to imagine it was anything else.

00:22:33.240 Now, what we don't know is the causation, right?

00:22:36.580 Because it could be correlation without causation.

00:22:41.500 But there is some newer information

00:22:44.680 that does suggest that causation is suggested.

00:22:51.120 So we'll see.

00:22:52.700 I would say that's still unconfirmed,

00:22:54.400 but in terms of pattern recognition,

00:22:57.760 the vitamin D thing looked exactly

00:23:00.040 like the life preserver thing.

00:23:02.500 You just look at it, you go,

00:23:04.080 I don't know, I feel like I see a pattern here.

00:23:05.560 I can't say it's right yet.

00:23:08.800 Now, take that same pattern recognition

00:23:10.520 and apply it to a few other things.

00:23:13.340 Do you remember, as I've bragged too often,

00:23:16.480 that I predicted that there was no sonic weapon

00:23:19.260 with the Havana syndrome?

00:23:21.100 What was the basis of my prediction

00:23:23.180 that there was no secret weapon

00:23:26.180 with the Havana syndrome story?

00:23:28.300 The basis was pattern recognition.

00:23:30.740 It was pattern recognition.

00:23:31.840 Because I've seen that pattern.

00:23:34.760 And if you studied mass hysteria,

00:23:38.780 they're kind of easy to spot.

00:23:40.660 It's just a pattern.

00:23:42.480 So I just spotted it easily.

00:23:44.200 Do you remember when I had the weird prediction

00:23:48.200 that the Las Vegas shooter was not ISIS?

00:23:53.520 When the news was saying,

00:23:54.720 you know, this sort of looks like an ISIS attack.

00:23:56.860 And then ISIS claimed credit,

00:23:59.620 they claimed responsibility for it.

00:24:01.940 ISIS actually said it was us.

00:24:04.240 And what did I say?

00:24:05.620 No, it isn't.

00:24:07.180 That was after ISIS said it was them.

00:24:10.260 They claimed credit,

00:24:11.480 and they just don't do that.

00:24:13.440 ISIS is not someone,

00:24:14.720 a group that typically,

00:24:16.420 typically they don't claim credit.

00:24:18.440 But what pattern did I see?

00:24:20.700 The pattern I saw is

00:24:21.880 they don't do that kind of attack.

00:24:23.380 It just didn't look like an ISIS attack.

00:24:26.960 It was just pattern recognition.

00:24:28.620 And so I stuck with my pattern recognition,

00:24:30.700 turned out to be right.

00:24:33.580 So I'm pretty sure we can make in

00:24:36.780 artificial intelligence

00:24:38.000 that can do pattern recognition

00:24:39.660 at least as well as people,

00:24:41.720 because we're just not very good at it.

00:24:44.600 Yeah, and Bradley is saying ISIS in Vegas.

00:24:47.800 What were the odds

00:24:48.800 that these highly religious people

00:24:50.780 would pick Las Vegas

00:24:52.340 to go spend some time 0.92

00:24:53.500 and then do a murder?

00:24:54.340 I mean, it didn't make,

00:24:55.460 it just didn't have any ISIS pattern

00:24:57.240 to it whatsoever.

00:25:00.140 All right, so look for your patterns.

00:25:03.500 I say no vaxation without representation.

00:25:09.460 I'm just so proud of that,

00:25:12.440 that if you don't mind,

00:25:14.160 can I have permission

00:25:14.940 to pat myself on the back?

00:25:16.980 No vaxation without representation.

00:25:18.840 I'll talk about it in a minute.

00:25:21.040 Come on.

00:25:22.520 Come on.

00:25:23.220 That's good.

00:25:24.540 No vaxation without representation.

00:25:28.220 Pat, pat, pat, pat, pat.

00:25:29.940 All right.

00:25:32.060 Here's the context.

00:25:35.500 One of our leaders,

00:25:37.100 Senator Bill Cassidy,

00:25:38.620 a Republican,

00:25:39.780 he's a physician,

00:25:41.360 so it's important that you know

00:25:42.600 he's not only a senator,

00:25:43.900 but a physician.

00:25:44.620 And he did an interview

00:25:46.680 and said he favors

00:25:47.780 cognition tests

00:25:49.200 for aging leaders

00:25:50.220 in all three branches

00:25:51.940 of government.

00:25:56.040 Dr. Bill Cassidy,

00:25:58.300 a physician,

00:26:00.700 recommends cognitive tests

00:26:02.480 for aging leaders

00:26:03.560 in all three branches

00:26:04.680 of government

00:26:05.200 as a basic system,

00:26:07.880 you know,

00:26:08.140 to do it on a regular basis.

00:26:10.400 To which I say,

00:26:12.100 standing ovation.

00:26:12.820 standing ovation

00:26:14.520 for Bill Cassidy,

00:26:19.840 Republican senator,

00:26:22.260 saying and doing

00:26:23.560 the right stuff.

00:26:25.640 Thank you.

00:26:27.240 Thank you, Bill Cassidy.

00:26:28.840 And further,

00:26:29.480 I would like to say,

00:26:31.460 if we don't know

00:26:32.420 if our leaders

00:26:33.980 are competent,

00:26:35.840 and we don't, do we?

00:26:37.240 Because they're really old.

00:26:39.400 Pelosi, you know,

00:26:40.680 et cetera.

00:26:41.160 If you don't know

00:26:42.780 that your representatives

00:26:43.620 are competent,

00:26:45.460 can you say

00:26:46.100 you're represented?

00:26:49.280 Right?

00:26:50.440 Are you really represented

00:26:51.700 if your representatives

00:26:53.580 are not competent,

00:26:55.580 or at least you can't tell?

00:26:57.860 Not really.

00:26:59.800 So,

00:27:00.380 they're going to give us

00:27:01.380 a VAX mandate.

00:27:04.100 So,

00:27:04.640 these people

00:27:05.500 who are so old,

00:27:06.540 we can't even tell 0.57

00:27:07.540 if their brains work.

00:27:09.020 That's so old they are. 0.85

00:27:09.880 They're going to force us

00:27:12.020 to get

00:27:13.500 a medical procedure.

00:27:16.560 Well,

00:27:16.980 how about

00:27:17.420 no vaccination

00:27:18.420 without representation, 1.00

00:27:21.160 motherfuckers? 1.00

00:27:23.260 Yeah, 1.00

00:27:23.500 I know I try not to swear,

00:27:25.160 but sometimes

00:27:25.680 you just have to.

00:27:27.080 You just have to.

00:27:29.020 Come on.

00:27:29.940 You just have to sometimes.

00:27:33.700 Yeah,

00:27:34.320 I think it's completely fair.

00:27:35.880 In the context

00:27:36.840 of the government

00:27:37.660 asking you

00:27:38.340 to get a vaccination,

00:27:39.960 mandate,

00:27:41.120 a mandate.

00:27:42.540 How about them

00:27:43.180 getting a little

00:27:43.800 mandated medical procedure?

00:27:47.160 A little mandated

00:27:48.100 cognitive test,

00:27:49.440 how about that?

00:27:51.500 Yeah,

00:27:52.340 no vaccination

00:27:53.280 without representation.

00:27:55.020 And until you've taken

00:27:55.920 the cognitive test,

00:27:56.960 we don't even know

00:27:57.900 if we're represented.

00:27:59.440 Because it doesn't

00:28:00.100 look like it.

00:28:01.360 It doesn't look like it.

00:28:02.380 How well has your government

00:28:04.020 explained the whole

00:28:05.300 natural immunity

00:28:07.880 versus vaccinated immunity?

00:28:10.220 Have they explained

00:28:10.940 that well?

00:28:11.960 So the public says,

00:28:12.840 oh, okay,

00:28:13.760 I might like it,

00:28:14.720 might not,

00:28:15.140 but at least

00:28:15.420 I understand it.

00:28:17.240 No.

00:28:18.500 No,

00:28:18.840 they appear to be

00:28:19.500 lying to us

00:28:20.220 by omission,

00:28:22.580 lying by bias,

00:28:24.060 you know,

00:28:24.240 maybe not directly,

00:28:25.180 but lying,

00:28:26.340 lying in effect.

00:28:28.800 Is that representation?

00:28:29.980 Did you elect

00:28:31.860 your leaders

00:28:32.300 to lie to you?

00:28:33.640 No,

00:28:34.080 no,

00:28:34.300 that's not

00:28:34.700 representing you.

00:28:35.920 That's representing

00:28:36.680 the pharma companies

00:28:37.640 or something.

00:28:38.940 Representing themselves?

00:28:40.140 I don't know.

00:28:40.900 But they're not

00:28:41.360 representing you.

00:28:43.100 So no vaccination

00:28:44.200 without representation.

00:28:46.700 And by the way,

00:28:47.460 I'm not anti-vax

00:28:49.240 and I'm not pro-vax.

00:28:51.520 I'm just saying

00:28:52.480 you can't have a system

00:28:53.560 where a bunch of 1.00

00:28:55.040 brain-dead motherfuckers 1.00

00:28:56.880 are making you 1.00

00:28:57.640 get a vaccination

00:28:58.340 and you can't make

00:28:59.720 them get a cognitive test.

00:29:02.980 Let me remind you

00:29:04.240 who has the power

00:29:05.820 in this country.

00:29:07.520 It's not the government.

00:29:09.740 And it never will be.

00:29:11.660 It's not the government.

00:29:15.200 And if you let

00:29:16.160 the government act

00:29:17.160 as if they have the power,

00:29:18.160 then they do,

00:29:18.700 I guess,

00:29:19.520 for all practical power,

00:29:20.940 all practical purposes.

00:29:22.860 But I think we need

00:29:24.360 to demand

00:29:24.820 these cognitive tests.

00:29:27.180 I think we've got

00:29:28.380 to put down a marker

00:29:29.540 and say,

00:29:30.560 I hear you about

00:29:31.240 the mandates.

00:29:33.580 Because I hope

00:29:35.600 you would agree

00:29:36.100 with the following statement.

00:29:38.100 You could be

00:29:38.660 against mandates.

00:29:39.800 You could be for them.

00:29:42.260 But it's a fair question.

00:29:44.400 It's a fair question.

00:29:46.560 Right?

00:29:46.860 I think serious people

00:29:48.160 are trying to do

00:29:48.920 their best

00:29:49.540 when it comes to

00:29:50.480 this whole mandate

00:29:51.260 or no mandate situation.

00:29:52.920 And there are

00:29:53.520 genuine differences

00:29:54.380 of opinions

00:29:55.080 about the importance

00:29:56.540 of your personal freedom

00:29:57.720 versus, you know,

00:29:58.620 how much you can affect

00:29:59.360 other people's risks,

00:30:01.100 et cetera.

00:30:01.840 Those are fair questions.

00:30:03.940 Fair questions.

00:30:05.240 But we can't even

00:30:07.520 get to that question

00:30:08.500 until we have representation.

00:30:10.160 And we do not have

00:30:12.140 confirmed representation

00:30:13.760 because of the

00:30:14.720 cognitive abilities

00:30:15.800 of our leaders.

00:30:17.020 and they have

00:30:18.120 demonstrated

00:30:18.740 a level of competence

00:30:20.760 which does suggest

00:30:21.960 that we need

00:30:23.240 to check this.

00:30:25.100 Right?

00:30:25.520 Would you say

00:30:26.200 that everything's

00:30:26.780 working so well

00:30:27.760 that you're like,

00:30:28.980 well, you know,

00:30:29.880 nothing's going wrong.

00:30:31.420 So, you know,

00:30:32.640 if it ain't broke,

00:30:33.360 don't fix it.

00:30:34.560 It doesn't look like that,

00:30:35.620 does it?

00:30:36.220 It looks like some things

00:30:37.300 are pretty broken.

00:30:37.980 At least in the communication

00:30:40.980 of how things are going.

00:30:42.520 If not the,

00:30:43.340 you know,

00:30:43.680 the data.

00:30:44.060 So, no vexation

00:30:46.480 without representation.

00:30:50.880 We need brain audits.

00:30:53.760 The funniest story

00:30:54.720 of the day,

00:30:55.160 maybe,

00:30:56.040 although lots of competition.

00:30:58.320 Andy Ngo reports

00:30:59.260 that Antifa in Australia

00:31:01.320 just had a protest

00:31:03.700 demanding stronger

00:31:05.960 government restrictions.

00:31:12.120 What?

00:31:14.060 Do I have chocolate on me?

00:31:16.880 Yeah, I think I do.

00:31:20.560 Yeah, Antifa.

00:31:22.880 Because that's what

00:31:23.700 Antifa's all about.

00:31:26.220 Antifa wants

00:31:27.000 strong government

00:31:28.120 to tell the people

00:31:30.160 what to do.

00:31:31.860 Don't they?

00:31:32.460 Or is that

00:31:34.620 literally the opposite

00:31:37.280 of what Antifa is?

00:31:40.380 And it makes me wonder,

00:31:41.780 did somebody prank them?

00:31:44.060 This looks like a prank.

00:31:46.680 Doesn't it?

00:31:47.660 Doesn't it look like

00:31:48.480 somebody

00:31:48.960 who was mischievous

00:31:51.320 tried to figure out

00:31:53.560 how could we get Antifa

00:31:55.040 to protest

00:31:56.620 in favor of fascism?

00:31:59.060 And they figured out,

00:32:00.320 I think we can

00:32:01.020 get them to be

00:32:01.960 on the side.

00:32:02.960 Because they,

00:32:03.660 you know,

00:32:04.000 they side more

00:32:04.920 with the left.

00:32:06.340 And if the left

00:32:07.300 is pro-mandate,

00:32:08.320 I think we can

00:32:10.040 fool Antifa

00:32:10.780 into protesting

00:32:12.120 in favor of

00:32:13.080 greater government

00:32:13.980 control of our lives.

00:32:15.640 The opposite

00:32:16.460 of their

00:32:16.960 stated purpose.

00:32:21.440 So,

00:32:22.440 I can't tell you

00:32:24.740 it's a prank,

00:32:26.120 but it looks like one.

00:32:27.700 And as I've told you before,

00:32:29.000 parody and reality

00:32:30.200 have merged.

00:32:31.240 You really can't tell

00:32:32.380 a parody anymore.

00:32:33.220 If you think you can,

00:32:36.080 just wait a few weeks

00:32:37.420 and see how many times

00:32:38.660 there was somebody

00:32:39.540 kidding

00:32:39.980 that you thought

00:32:41.180 was real.

00:32:42.520 Watch how many times

00:32:43.260 you see it.

00:32:43.940 It's kind of shocking.

00:32:46.500 All right.

00:32:48.400 I guess the Bidens

00:32:49.700 went to a restaurant

00:32:50.460 last night

00:32:51.040 and didn't wear

00:32:51.620 their masks.

00:32:53.700 So they were

00:32:54.400 the only ones

00:32:54.980 in the restaurant

00:32:55.520 who entered

00:32:56.400 and left the restaurant

00:32:57.500 without masks.

00:32:59.160 Now,

00:32:59.780 do I think that

00:33:00.620 they caused a risk

00:33:01.640 to anybody?

00:33:02.360 No.

00:33:03.220 Do I think

00:33:04.900 everybody should wear

00:33:05.600 a mask walking

00:33:06.360 into a restaurant

00:33:07.100 and then just sit down

00:33:07.980 and take it off?

00:33:09.320 No.

00:33:10.740 So I don't think

00:33:11.660 that what the Bidens

00:33:12.660 did was,

00:33:13.720 you know,

00:33:14.840 bad in a health sense,

00:33:16.880 but his only job

00:33:19.380 is setting a role model

00:33:21.880 example, right?

00:33:22.940 It's like the main

00:33:23.660 thing he does.

00:33:25.360 So the main thing

00:33:26.540 that sells Biden

00:33:27.480 he didn't do,

00:33:28.220 which has set

00:33:28.840 a good example.

00:33:30.180 So it looks 0.95

00:33:30.880 pretty hypocritical. 0.74

00:33:31.760 People say, 0.98

00:33:32.280 I don't like 0.97

00:33:33.140 the hypocrite stories 0.94

00:33:34.020 because they're 1.00

00:33:34.400 too boring

00:33:34.860 and too numerous,

00:33:36.700 really.

00:33:37.540 But I think

00:33:38.200 this was notable.

00:33:39.920 So Christopher Steele,

00:33:41.040 the author

00:33:41.680 of the infamous

00:33:42.900 Russia collusion

00:33:44.960 dossier,

00:33:46.960 he's in the news

00:33:48.080 today and he says

00:33:49.120 of the alleged

00:33:50.680 pee tape,

00:33:52.600 the one that says

00:33:53.540 that Trump

00:33:56.280 allegedly 0.97

00:33:56.960 watched prostitutes 0.95

00:33:59.200 urinate on a 1.00

00:34:00.360 mattress that

00:34:01.720 had once been

00:34:03.280 slept on

00:34:03.840 by Obama.

00:34:06.160 And when asked

00:34:07.020 if he thought

00:34:07.460 it was true,

00:34:09.820 Christopher Steele

00:34:10.580 said he thinks

00:34:11.160 it probably

00:34:11.780 exists.

00:34:14.940 It probably

00:34:15.980 exists.

00:34:17.600 What is up

00:34:18.460 with this guy?

00:34:19.640 Who's paying him?

00:34:21.160 Is this just

00:34:21.820 part of the,

00:34:22.640 you know,

00:34:23.880 the long-term

00:34:24.740 project of making

00:34:25.680 sure that

00:34:26.240 Trump gets

00:34:29.380 stopped at

00:34:30.820 the starting

00:34:31.320 gate?

00:34:32.260 Because they

00:34:32.700 don't want him

00:34:33.020 running again.

00:34:34.060 So it looks like

00:34:34.680 it's just a

00:34:35.340 Trump suppression

00:34:36.520 act, right?

00:34:38.600 Because I can't

00:34:39.380 believe that

00:34:39.880 Christopher Steele,

00:34:41.440 without being

00:34:42.140 paid for it,

00:34:43.740 would go in

00:34:44.360 public and say

00:34:45.000 the pee tape

00:34:45.560 probably exists.

00:34:47.540 Do you think

00:34:47.980 he would bother

00:34:48.560 saying that

00:34:49.340 unless he was

00:34:51.060 getting some

00:34:51.460 kind of benefit

00:34:52.060 or he was

00:34:52.660 working for

00:34:53.260 somebody in

00:34:54.040 some way?

00:34:54.780 It doesn't

00:34:55.360 feel like

00:34:55.780 the sort

00:34:56.120 of thing

00:34:56.360 you would

00:34:56.640 say unless

00:34:59.680 you were

00:34:59.980 getting paid.

00:35:01.320 Does it?

00:35:04.520 Well,

00:35:05.700 here's the

00:35:06.520 funniest thing

00:35:08.220 about that

00:35:08.800 allegation.

00:35:10.720 You know

00:35:11.400 Trump is a 0.98

00:35:12.040 germaphobe, 0.99

00:35:12.740 right? 0.99

00:35:15.060 Trump is a 0.99

00:35:15.840 germaphobe. 1.00

00:35:17.380 He only

00:35:17.980 recently started

00:35:18.840 shaking hands

00:35:19.580 because he had

00:35:20.220 to, because

00:35:21.180 he was president.

00:35:22.520 But he's not

00:35:23.260 big on shaking

00:35:23.840 hands.

00:35:25.360 Now, do you

00:35:26.700 think that a

00:35:27.220 germaphobe said

00:35:28.880 to himself,

00:35:29.940 I'd sure like

00:35:30.520 to be in a

00:35:31.000 room with 0.99

00:35:31.500 prostitutes 1.00

00:35:32.420 urinating on 1.00

00:35:33.400 a mattress?

00:35:34.860 That's exactly

00:35:35.700 the kind of

00:35:36.200 fun I'm

00:35:36.580 looking for.

00:35:38.620 No.

00:35:39.900 Now, let me

00:35:40.580 ask you another

00:35:41.060 question.

00:35:42.140 Is that the

00:35:42.740 sort of thing

00:35:43.440 that anybody

00:35:43.940 would do unless

00:35:45.480 they were drunk

00:35:46.240 or on some

00:35:47.020 kind of drug?

00:35:49.400 No.

00:35:49.840 If you got

00:35:52.320 me drunk

00:35:52.760 enough, I

00:35:53.740 would definitely 0.99

00:35:54.220 watch prostitutes 1.00

00:35:55.260 peeing on a 1.00

00:35:55.880 mattress that

00:35:56.640 Obama slept

00:35:57.620 on.

00:35:58.500 There is some

00:35:59.080 amount of

00:35:59.500 alcohol that

00:36:00.020 would get me

00:36:00.400 in that

00:36:00.680 room.

00:36:02.600 Marijuana?

00:36:03.300 Probably not.

00:36:04.680 Alcohol?

00:36:05.500 Yeah.

00:36:06.540 I'll watch

00:36:07.460 some mattress

00:36:08.640 trashing.

00:36:10.240 Give me

00:36:10.520 three martinis

00:36:11.560 and I'm in.

00:36:12.800 But Trump

00:36:13.280 doesn't drink.

00:36:14.860 Trump doesn't

00:36:15.360 take drugs.

00:36:15.920 How do you

00:36:17.320 get a germaphobe

00:36:18.520 who doesn't

00:36:19.040 drink and

00:36:19.480 doesn't take

00:36:19.980 drugs to be

00:36:21.640 in a room 0.98

00:36:22.040 with prostitutes 1.00

00:36:24.740 urinating on 0.99

00:36:25.420 mattresses?

00:36:27.620 Could there be

00:36:28.400 anything less

00:36:29.000 likely than

00:36:29.640 that?

00:36:30.360 Could they

00:36:30.780 have ever

00:36:31.100 come up

00:36:31.500 with an

00:36:32.580 allegation

00:36:33.180 that is

00:36:33.560 less likely

00:36:34.420 than that

00:36:35.440 one?

00:36:36.240 That is

00:36:36.580 literally the

00:36:37.120 least likely

00:36:37.680 thing I've

00:36:38.200 ever heard

00:36:38.540 in my

00:36:38.740 life.

00:36:40.180 I suppose

00:36:40.500 nothing's

00:36:40.920 impossible,

00:36:41.740 but the

00:36:42.500 least likely.

00:36:43.060 All right.

00:36:49.920 So that's

00:36:50.780 pretty interesting.

00:36:52.460 I noticed

00:36:53.300 yesterday that

00:36:53.940 my grocery

00:36:54.520 store is

00:36:55.040 totally

00:36:55.340 gaslighting

00:36:56.020 me.

00:36:58.100 And it

00:36:59.360 really bothered

00:37:00.140 me yesterday.

00:37:01.260 So I think I

00:37:01.900 reported the

00:37:02.420 other day that

00:37:03.520 it seemed to

00:37:03.960 me that only

00:37:04.480 the items I

00:37:05.540 was shopping

00:37:06.020 for personally

00:37:06.940 were the

00:37:07.900 ones that

00:37:08.220 were missing.

00:37:09.400 Because I

00:37:09.820 would look at

00:37:10.140 the shelves

00:37:10.580 and the

00:37:10.880 shelves are

00:37:11.340 full,

00:37:11.940 except there

00:37:13.240 would be

00:37:13.380 this little

00:37:13.820 hole on

00:37:14.940 this entire

00:37:15.440 aisle.

00:37:16.480 And that

00:37:17.020 little hole

00:37:17.440 would be

00:37:17.720 just the

00:37:18.040 product I

00:37:18.520 was looking

00:37:18.820 for.

00:37:19.680 And I

00:37:19.920 thought,

00:37:20.240 is this a

00:37:21.520 simulation?

00:37:22.720 What's going

00:37:23.220 on?

00:37:23.720 And then I

00:37:24.280 realized what

00:37:24.800 the trick

00:37:25.160 is.

00:37:27.020 My grocery

00:37:27.840 store has

00:37:28.540 full shelves

00:37:29.500 and they're

00:37:31.040 out of almost

00:37:31.760 everything.

00:37:33.980 Except they

00:37:34.820 seem to have

00:37:35.340 lots of

00:37:35.640 fresh food,

00:37:36.420 so that

00:37:36.660 seems fine.

00:37:37.580 But the

00:37:37.940 package stuff,

00:37:40.000 do you know

00:37:40.560 what they

00:37:40.800 did?

00:37:41.940 Instead of

00:37:42.780 piling things

00:37:44.620 behind things,

00:37:46.160 they put

00:37:47.020 them sideways.

00:37:48.820 So they

00:37:49.460 filled the

00:37:50.000 shelf with

00:37:50.500 the same

00:37:50.820 product.

00:37:52.000 And I

00:37:52.300 didn't notice

00:37:52.760 the first

00:37:53.120 time I

00:37:53.440 went.

00:37:54.240 But this

00:37:54.580 next time I

00:37:55.180 went and I

00:37:55.760 noticed,

00:37:56.080 wait a minute,

00:37:56.560 if you take

00:37:57.000 a product,

00:37:58.220 there's nothing

00:37:58.880 behind it.

00:38:00.700 There's nothing

00:38:01.360 behind it.

00:38:02.740 Usually the

00:38:03.560 shelves are

00:38:04.300 several deep,

00:38:05.260 right?

00:38:06.000 But they

00:38:06.720 took the few

00:38:07.440 products they

00:38:07.940 have and they

00:38:08.540 just spread

00:38:08.960 them out

00:38:09.300 sideways to

00:38:09.940 fill the

00:38:10.300 shelves.

00:38:10.620 my store

00:38:12.460 is half

00:38:12.800 empty.

00:38:14.800 And I

00:38:15.280 didn't even

00:38:15.640 notice it.

00:38:17.380 So he

00:38:17.860 says, you

00:38:18.160 just noticed?

00:38:18.880 I know.

00:38:19.620 I know. 0.99

00:38:20.180 Dumb, right? 0.99

00:38:21.440 Like I 1.00

00:38:21.720 wasn't really

00:38:22.120 paying attention.

00:38:23.260 I'm the guy

00:38:23.880 who can't go

00:38:24.380 into the

00:38:24.840 refrigerator and

00:38:26.880 find the

00:38:27.220 ketchup, so

00:38:27.780 that's no

00:38:28.100 surprise.

00:38:29.040 And it's

00:38:29.420 weird that I

00:38:29.880 see other

00:38:30.240 patterns.

00:38:31.400 It's weird

00:38:31.920 that I can

00:38:32.320 see another

00:38:32.760 pattern, but

00:38:33.240 I can't

00:38:33.540 find something

00:38:34.060 in the

00:38:34.960 grocery store.

00:38:35.620 you won't

00:38:39.080 catch it

00:38:39.460 unless you

00:38:39.780 stock shelves

00:38:40.420 for a

00:38:40.720 living once.

00:38:41.540 Yeah.

00:38:42.880 All right.

00:38:43.500 But keep

00:38:44.000 an eye out

00:38:44.500 for that.

00:38:44.900 There is

00:38:45.140 something

00:38:45.360 happening

00:38:45.680 that's

00:38:45.940 bigger.

00:38:46.900 Now,

00:38:47.760 J.P.

00:38:48.260 Morgan's

00:38:48.920 Chase

00:38:49.680 CEO,

00:38:50.360 Jamie

00:38:50.580 Diamond,

00:38:51.160 who I

00:38:51.480 would say

00:38:51.740 is pretty

00:38:52.220 credible for

00:38:53.660 economic

00:38:54.680 predictions,

00:38:56.280 said that

00:38:57.640 he's not

00:38:59.100 worried about

00:38:59.460 the supply

00:38:59.860 chain in

00:39:00.240 the long

00:39:00.500 run.

00:39:02.040 He says

00:39:02.660 next year

00:39:03.100 it'll all

00:39:03.460 work out,

00:39:03.900 et cetera.

00:39:05.240 But you

00:39:05.480 know what

00:39:05.660 else is

00:39:05.960 weird?

00:39:08.760 I didn't

00:39:09.400 see any

00:39:09.760 hoarding.

00:39:10.860 Did you?

00:39:13.800 Notice how

00:39:14.460 different this

00:39:15.360 is.

00:39:16.080 When the

00:39:16.560 pandemic

00:39:16.920 started,

00:39:18.180 there was

00:39:18.520 hoarding

00:39:19.040 like crazy.

00:39:20.920 Hoard, 0.99

00:39:21.340 hoard,

00:39:21.600 hoard,

00:39:21.800 everything.

00:39:22.740 But at

00:39:23.080 the moment,

00:39:23.480 I didn't

00:39:23.720 see anybody

00:39:24.420 doing anything

00:39:25.320 that looked

00:39:25.740 remotely like

00:39:26.440 hoarding.

00:39:28.160 Why are

00:39:28.820 people playing

00:39:29.400 it cool this

00:39:30.000 time?

00:39:31.220 Is it because

00:39:31.780 this doesn't

00:39:32.340 seem permanent?

00:39:33.900 Because it's

00:39:34.900 not like a

00:39:35.340 pandemic,

00:39:35.880 it's just a

00:39:36.520 supply chain

00:39:37.420 thing.

00:39:39.460 Yeah,

00:39:39.980 wait a few

00:39:40.400 weeks,

00:39:40.900 right?

00:39:41.640 So we may

00:39:42.460 be on the

00:39:42.860 verge of

00:39:43.260 hoarding,

00:39:44.040 maybe,

00:39:44.800 but I

00:39:45.380 would say

00:39:45.680 this is,

00:39:46.620 I'm going

00:39:47.100 to agree

00:39:47.620 completely

00:39:48.140 with Jamie

00:39:49.180 Diamond,

00:39:49.960 which is

00:39:50.700 prices might

00:39:51.460 go up,

00:39:52.580 but I don't

00:39:53.020 think we're

00:39:53.380 going to run

00:39:53.760 out of stuff.

00:39:54.900 Because I

00:39:55.240 think at

00:39:55.720 some price

00:39:56.320 point,

00:39:56.820 everything

00:39:57.240 gets solved.

00:39:57.880 And I

00:39:59.980 would also

00:40:00.320 like to

00:40:00.640 put out

00:40:01.020 the idea

00:40:02.040 that I

00:40:03.120 think Trump

00:40:03.600 could have

00:40:03.920 solved this.

00:40:05.720 Don't you

00:40:06.220 think Trump

00:40:06.720 could have

00:40:07.140 solved the

00:40:07.820 shortage of

00:40:08.560 truck drivers?

00:40:09.980 Because what

00:40:10.740 is it that

00:40:11.180 causes a

00:40:11.740 shortage of

00:40:12.240 truck drivers?

00:40:15.600 Regulations,

00:40:16.880 probably.

00:40:18.380 Some kind of

00:40:18.960 regulations,

00:40:19.900 which he's

00:40:20.380 going to get

00:40:20.780 rid of.

00:40:21.840 Might be

00:40:22.520 money.

00:40:22.820 How did he

00:40:24.360 make Project

00:40:25.380 Warp Speed

00:40:25.880 happen?

00:40:26.280 He gave a

00:40:27.580 ton of

00:40:27.940 money to

00:40:28.360 the pharma

00:40:28.760 companies and

00:40:29.360 said,

00:40:29.740 don't worry

00:40:30.560 about the

00:40:30.920 money,

00:40:31.860 just make

00:40:32.500 this work.

00:40:33.860 How would

00:40:34.520 Trump have

00:40:35.000 solved the

00:40:35.700 trucking

00:40:36.420 shortage?

00:40:37.600 Well,

00:40:37.820 one of the

00:40:38.140 biggest problems

00:40:38.620 is they don't

00:40:39.080 pay the

00:40:39.380 truckers enough.

00:40:41.460 He could

00:40:42.080 have said,

00:40:42.500 well,

00:40:42.700 in the

00:40:42.880 short run,

00:40:43.360 we're going

00:40:43.620 to subsidize

00:40:44.620 something or

00:40:45.360 do something.

00:40:46.780 Maybe give

00:40:47.400 free health

00:40:48.260 care to

00:40:48.580 truckers so

00:40:49.180 it's like

00:40:50.040 a raise.

00:40:51.240 Something like

00:40:51.640 that.

00:40:52.540 But you

00:40:53.100 can imagine

00:40:53.560 some kind

00:40:54.100 of executive

00:40:54.600 order that

00:40:55.280 Trump could

00:40:55.740 have done

00:40:56.140 that maybe

00:40:57.160 Biden doesn't

00:40:57.980 have the

00:40:58.260 wherewithal or

00:40:59.800 is too much

00:41:00.940 of a Democrat

00:41:01.420 to do or

00:41:02.540 something.

00:41:04.740 Somebody says

00:41:05.420 it's the

00:41:05.760 trucker

00:41:06.080 mandates.

00:41:06.600 Yeah,

00:41:06.800 maybe that's

00:41:08.340 part of it

00:41:08.740 and maybe

00:41:09.280 Trump would

00:41:09.980 have gotten

00:41:10.240 rid of

00:41:10.500 those.

00:41:11.760 But it

00:41:12.000 does feel

00:41:12.580 to me

00:41:13.120 that this

00:41:14.480 is,

00:41:15.340 you know,

00:41:15.580 I've said

00:41:16.060 this often,

00:41:16.620 there's no

00:41:16.940 such thing

00:41:17.340 as a good

00:41:17.840 president or

00:41:18.460 a bad

00:41:18.780 one.

00:41:19.980 Now,

00:41:20.440 I'm being a

00:41:21.320 little bit

00:41:21.640 extreme there.

00:41:22.440 Obviously,

00:41:22.920 there could be.

00:41:23.360 But in

00:41:24.540 general,

00:41:25.740 you have

00:41:26.080 presidents that

00:41:26.840 tend to be

00:41:27.280 suited for

00:41:27.900 some kinds

00:41:28.480 of tasks

00:41:29.520 and less

00:41:30.560 suited for

00:41:31.100 others.

00:41:32.040 This is the

00:41:32.760 kind of

00:41:33.020 problem that

00:41:33.460 I think

00:41:33.720 Biden is

00:41:34.300 less suited

00:41:35.140 for and

00:41:36.380 Trump probably

00:41:37.120 a lot more

00:41:37.660 suited for,

00:41:38.780 in part because

00:41:39.540 he takes

00:41:39.860 more risks.

00:41:41.280 So I think

00:41:41.640 he might say,

00:41:42.260 yeah,

00:41:42.480 you know,

00:41:42.720 it would be

00:41:43.100 risky to

00:41:44.200 have truckers

00:41:44.840 who have

00:41:45.180 failed the,

00:41:46.240 I don't know,

00:41:46.660 let's say the

00:41:47.100 marijuana drug

00:41:48.340 test,

00:41:49.240 if there is

00:41:49.720 one.

00:41:50.160 I assume

00:41:50.640 there is.

00:41:51.520 But you

00:41:51.840 can imagine

00:41:52.260 Trump saying,

00:41:52.960 all right,

00:41:53.800 at least for

00:41:54.460 the short

00:41:54.820 run,

00:41:55.500 you can fail

00:41:56.680 the marijuana

00:41:57.280 drug test

00:41:57.880 and still be

00:41:58.380 a trucker.

00:42:00.100 I'm just

00:42:00.580 brainstorming

00:42:01.660 that there

00:42:02.000 could be

00:42:02.340 things that

00:42:03.520 Trump could

00:42:04.080 fix with

00:42:04.860 just a sweep

00:42:05.540 of a pen

00:42:06.080 and would,

00:42:07.800 whereas Biden

00:42:08.380 might not like

00:42:09.060 the risk

00:42:09.540 involved or

00:42:10.380 just wouldn't

00:42:11.240 have that

00:42:11.720 point of view

00:42:12.840 that you can

00:42:13.340 go in and

00:42:13.800 fix this stuff

00:42:14.460 by getting

00:42:14.920 rid of

00:42:15.180 regulations.

00:42:17.740 Somebody says

00:42:18.440 there aren't

00:42:18.800 drivers due to

00:42:19.560 the driving

00:42:19.940 schools being

00:42:20.600 closed.

00:42:21.240 How hard

00:42:21.640 would it be

00:42:22.020 for Trump

00:42:22.440 to fix

00:42:22.860 that?

00:42:24.240 Right?

00:42:25.360 Yeah,

00:42:25.820 I mean,

00:42:26.040 I feel like

00:42:26.520 you could

00:42:26.860 spring up

00:42:29.160 a bunch

00:42:29.500 of driving

00:42:30.080 schools,

00:42:30.940 because what

00:42:31.760 do you need

00:42:32.040 besides trucks?

00:42:34.100 How hard

00:42:34.740 is it to have

00:42:35.140 a driving

00:42:35.560 school?

00:42:37.360 Don't you

00:42:37.680 just need a

00:42:38.240 truck and

00:42:38.700 maybe a

00:42:39.020 classroom?

00:42:40.600 So this

00:42:41.300 is like the

00:42:41.700 most solvable

00:42:42.300 problem in

00:42:42.920 the world.

00:42:44.080 It just

00:42:44.680 takes a

00:42:45.080 little bit

00:42:45.500 of time to

00:42:46.000 work through

00:42:46.460 the details.

00:42:49.560 Somebody says

00:42:50.420 it's about

00:42:50.800 gasoline price.

00:42:53.040 Well,

00:42:53.360 that can be

00:42:53.780 solved by

00:42:54.280 raising the

00:42:54.980 price of

00:42:55.520 the,

00:42:57.660 or charging

00:42:58.400 more.

00:43:00.220 So inflation

00:43:01.060 is a problem

00:43:01.660 that we don't

00:43:02.060 have an

00:43:02.300 immediate solution

00:43:03.020 for,

00:43:03.360 but you can

00:43:03.720 certainly

00:43:03.960 solve this

00:43:05.860 stuff,

00:43:06.960 the supply

00:43:07.560 chains.

00:43:08.200 Let me tell

00:43:08.620 you a Colin

00:43:09.120 Powell story.

00:43:11.200 As you know,

00:43:11.960 Colin Powell

00:43:12.440 passed away,

00:43:13.500 and of

00:43:14.700 course the

00:43:14.940 big headline

00:43:15.460 is that he

00:43:15.940 was completely

00:43:17.240 vaccinated,

00:43:18.080 but he died

00:43:18.780 from COVID

00:43:19.340 related stuff.

00:43:20.420 He was 84

00:43:20.920 years old.

00:43:22.460 Now,

00:43:23.460 out of

00:43:23.780 respect for

00:43:24.680 the general,

00:43:27.060 I just

00:43:27.800 don't feel

00:43:29.140 like talking

00:43:29.680 about the

00:43:30.160 fact that he

00:43:30.680 got infected

00:43:31.560 after getting

00:43:32.360 vaccinated.

00:43:33.660 That doesn't

00:43:34.320 seem like the

00:43:34.820 important thing.

00:43:36.240 You know,

00:43:36.520 you're looking

00:43:36.840 at somebody's

00:43:37.400 entire life.

00:43:38.880 I don't feel

00:43:39.680 like that's the

00:43:40.320 part we should

00:43:40.980 be focusing on.

00:43:41.720 But I do

00:43:42.940 wonder how

00:43:43.680 many people

00:43:44.120 are waking

00:43:44.580 up today

00:43:45.080 and are

00:43:46.000 hearing for

00:43:46.400 the first

00:43:46.800 time that

00:43:47.360 you can 0.71

00:43:47.720 die from

00:43:48.240 COVID even 0.95

00:43:48.860 if you're

00:43:49.200 vaccinated.

00:43:51.160 This isn't

00:43:51.940 new news,

00:43:52.620 people.

00:43:53.360 We've known

00:43:54.000 this for a

00:43:54.420 long time,

00:43:55.540 especially if

00:43:56.320 you're 84.

00:43:57.960 All right,

00:43:58.340 here's my

00:43:58.680 Colin Powell

00:43:59.100 story.

00:43:59.680 Years ago,

00:44:00.900 when Colin

00:44:01.620 Powell had

00:44:02.060 left government

00:44:03.580 work and he

00:44:04.560 started his

00:44:05.240 speaking career,

00:44:07.100 I was also at

00:44:08.080 the height of

00:44:08.560 my own speaking

00:44:09.580 career.

00:44:10.440 And sometimes

00:44:11.040 he and I

00:44:11.580 would get

00:44:11.940 booked at

00:44:12.460 the same

00:44:13.120 events because

00:44:15.080 I was doing

00:44:15.600 pretty big

00:44:16.700 events,

00:44:17.140 as was he.

00:44:18.260 And one

00:44:18.840 day I was

00:44:19.440 booked to

00:44:20.000 speak directly

00:44:21.140 after him at

00:44:22.140 an industry

00:44:23.660 event.

00:44:24.720 And my

00:44:25.660 speakers bureau

00:44:26.480 had booked

00:44:27.240 him for the

00:44:27.700 event and

00:44:28.180 they had

00:44:28.420 booked me.

00:44:29.420 And the

00:44:29.680 speakers bureau

00:44:30.340 person was

00:44:31.600 with me

00:44:31.960 backstage as

00:44:32.960 I was waiting

00:44:33.340 to go on and

00:44:34.420 Powell was

00:44:34.980 speaking.

00:44:36.120 And the

00:44:36.980 person who was

00:44:37.400 with me said,

00:44:37.940 hey, do you

00:44:38.220 want to meet

00:44:38.620 Colin Powell when

00:44:40.500 he's done

00:44:40.860 speaking?

00:44:42.000 Now keep in

00:44:42.560 mind that I

00:44:43.020 was pretty

00:44:44.340 young to the

00:44:45.100 being famous

00:44:45.840 game.

00:44:47.060 You know, I

00:44:47.260 hadn't been

00:44:47.580 famous for

00:44:48.100 very long.

00:44:49.060 So when

00:44:49.580 somebody says,

00:44:50.260 hey, do you

00:44:50.460 want to meet

00:44:50.780 Colin Powell?

00:44:52.160 I just

00:44:52.760 thought, no,

00:44:55.020 I'm too

00:44:55.340 afraid to be

00:44:55.860 Colin Powell

00:44:56.380 because I

00:44:58.100 don't have

00:44:58.340 anything to

00:44:58.740 say to him.

00:44:59.720 And I'm

00:45:00.020 pretty sure he

00:45:00.540 doesn't want to

00:45:01.080 talk to me.

00:45:02.260 So why would I

00:45:03.200 bother him?

00:45:04.800 Why would I

00:45:05.460 bother him, you

00:45:06.280 know, with my

00:45:06.920 presence?

00:45:07.540 So at first I

00:45:09.580 demurred a little

00:45:10.400 bit.

00:45:10.640 I don't need to

00:45:12.420 meet Colin Powell.

00:45:13.460 Mostly because I

00:45:14.240 figured he didn't

00:45:14.780 need to meet me.

00:45:16.620 And so I was

00:45:18.740 just being a

00:45:19.860 little bit, I

00:45:21.900 guess, I guess I

00:45:23.500 was being

00:45:23.760 considerate and

00:45:24.680 respectful of his

00:45:25.640 time.

00:45:26.780 He doesn't need to

00:45:27.480 meet me.

00:45:27.840 I've got nothing to

00:45:28.720 offer.

00:45:30.000 There's nothing that

00:45:30.900 Colin Powell needs

00:45:31.680 from me.

00:45:32.580 Nothing.

00:45:33.680 Why take his

00:45:34.360 time?

00:45:34.600 But Colin

00:45:36.640 Powell finishes

00:45:37.200 his speech and

00:45:37.880 he walks directly

00:45:39.960 in my direction

00:45:41.560 backstage.

00:45:43.520 And my, let's

00:45:46.000 say, what would

00:45:47.180 you call it,

00:45:47.560 handler, my

00:45:48.360 handler at the

00:45:49.040 time, said,

00:45:50.140 hey, Colin

00:45:50.640 Powell, come over

00:45:51.400 here and introduces

00:45:52.740 me to Colin

00:45:53.640 Powell.

00:45:54.540 Now, if you

00:45:55.580 haven't had this

00:45:56.200 experience of

00:45:57.700 being introduced

00:45:58.460 to somebody who

00:45:59.120 was really

00:45:59.820 famous, you

00:46:01.200 know, at the

00:46:02.000 moment he was

00:46:02.520 at the peak of

00:46:03.680 his fame and

00:46:04.380 people were

00:46:04.720 talking about

00:46:05.200 him for

00:46:05.420 president and

00:46:06.000 stuff, it's

00:46:07.000 really intimidating.

00:46:09.220 Right?

00:46:09.920 Really

00:46:10.360 intimidating.

00:46:11.660 And so he's

00:46:12.900 walking toward

00:46:13.460 me and you're

00:46:14.260 having this

00:46:14.700 thought as he's

00:46:15.920 walking directly

00:46:16.660 toward you.

00:46:18.400 Colin Powell

00:46:19.060 is walking

00:46:19.720 directly toward

00:46:20.380 me.

00:46:21.660 And then when

00:46:22.340 you stop

00:46:23.180 thinking that,

00:46:23.940 you think again,

00:46:25.580 Colin Powell

00:46:26.220 is still walking

00:46:26.980 directly toward

00:46:27.660 me.

00:46:28.220 Oh, my God.

00:46:29.200 Colin Powell

00:46:29.680 is looking

00:46:30.140 directly in my

00:46:31.140 eyes.

00:46:31.800 Oh, no.

00:46:32.120 Colin Powell

00:46:33.040 just put out

00:46:33.780 his hand to

00:46:34.340 shake my

00:46:34.660 hands.

00:46:35.220 Oh, no.

00:46:35.660 I'm shaking

00:46:36.100 hands with

00:46:36.540 Colin Powell.

00:46:37.560 Like, your 0.99

00:46:38.220 brain is just

00:46:39.060 doing that

00:46:39.420 loop.

00:46:41.320 So, here's

00:46:42.920 the story

00:46:43.460 part.

00:46:45.240 I was

00:46:45.900 introduced as

00:46:46.600 the Dilbert

00:46:47.160 author.

00:46:48.200 Turns out,

00:46:49.860 Colin Powell

00:46:50.460 was a Dilbert

00:46:51.820 fan, of all

00:46:53.820 things.

00:46:54.740 He was a

00:46:55.200 Dilbert fan.

00:46:56.200 So he was

00:46:57.040 very aware of

00:46:58.020 Dilbert and

00:46:58.980 of me, I

00:46:59.700 guess.

00:47:00.340 So he knew

00:47:00.800 who he was.

00:47:01.520 And he

00:47:02.160 was really

00:47:02.500 nice.

00:47:03.960 And very,

00:47:05.680 what would

00:47:06.540 be the

00:47:06.780 word?

00:47:08.140 Very, not

00:47:09.800 approachable,

00:47:11.580 but from

00:47:13.500 the moment

00:47:14.060 he said hi,

00:47:16.180 and I shook

00:47:16.700 hands from

00:47:17.160 him, the

00:47:18.320 famous part

00:47:19.020 disappeared.

00:47:20.820 Does that

00:47:21.080 make sense?

00:47:22.320 The moment

00:47:23.440 he went

00:47:23.960 personal, all

00:47:25.820 of the fame

00:47:26.780 just disappeared.

00:47:28.860 And in one

00:47:29.580 moment, he

00:47:31.080 made you feel

00:47:31.620 comfortable.

00:47:33.400 But I'll

00:47:33.820 tell you what

00:47:34.220 you didn't

00:47:34.620 miss was 0.51

00:47:36.240 his charisma.

00:47:37.980 His charisma

00:47:38.840 was real.

00:47:40.380 Like, even

00:47:40.940 you take the

00:47:41.440 famous part

00:47:41.960 away, and

00:47:42.700 the charisma

00:47:43.120 is still

00:47:43.440 there.

00:47:43.740 Right?

00:47:44.640 So very

00:47:45.200 charismatic.

00:47:47.120 Big smile,

00:47:48.860 you know,

00:47:49.460 shakes my

00:47:49.980 hand, says

00:47:50.720 some kind

00:47:51.260 words about

00:47:51.840 my work.

00:47:54.080 And it was

00:47:54.820 awesome.

00:47:55.780 It was

00:47:56.080 awesome.

00:47:56.340 So the

00:47:57.200 only thing

00:47:57.500 I want to

00:47:57.820 add, since

00:47:58.580 he passed,

00:47:59.980 is it would

00:48:01.440 be easy to

00:48:02.020 throw in

00:48:02.680 our

00:48:03.420 criticisms of

00:48:05.940 the Iraq

00:48:06.360 war, etc.,

00:48:07.020 and those

00:48:07.300 are all

00:48:07.520 valid.

00:48:08.520 But I

00:48:09.100 would like to

00:48:09.540 say one

00:48:09.900 good thing

00:48:10.300 about him,

00:48:11.060 which is

00:48:11.480 that in

00:48:11.860 person, he

00:48:12.560 was awesome.

00:48:14.080 He was an

00:48:14.740 awesome person

00:48:15.360 in person, he

00:48:15.960 was kind, he

00:48:16.720 was generous,

00:48:17.600 and he made

00:48:18.800 eye contact, and

00:48:19.760 he treated me

00:48:20.680 like a human

00:48:22.860 being.

00:48:23.220 And I'm

00:48:24.600 not sure he

00:48:25.000 needed to,

00:48:25.820 because he

00:48:26.160 was pretty

00:48:26.480 famous.

00:48:27.240 So I just

00:48:27.880 appreciated him

00:48:28.580 on a human

00:48:29.180 level, in

00:48:31.520 my brief

00:48:31.960 interaction.

00:48:34.020 So let's

00:48:35.700 talk about

00:48:36.080 natural

00:48:36.480 immunity.

00:48:38.620 Do you

00:48:39.240 think you

00:48:39.560 understand the

00:48:40.260 issue of

00:48:41.740 natural

00:48:42.220 immunity versus

00:48:43.100 vaccination?

00:48:44.860 In the

00:48:45.360 comments, how

00:48:46.640 many of you

00:48:47.220 feel you've

00:48:47.720 got a good

00:48:48.140 handle on

00:48:48.740 it?

00:48:50.720 I just

00:48:51.340 want to see,

00:48:51.980 do your own

00:48:52.680 assessment,

00:48:53.220 of your own

00:48:53.700 knowledge, of

00:48:55.280 and let's

00:48:56.720 say it's

00:48:57.040 specifically

00:48:57.480 about the

00:48:57.980 question of

00:48:58.540 whether natural

00:48:59.240 immunity should

00:49:00.480 be considered

00:49:01.120 as good as

00:49:02.760 and give you

00:49:04.760 an excuse not

00:49:05.480 to get a

00:49:05.900 mandated

00:49:06.200 vaccination.

00:49:07.380 So that's

00:49:07.800 the only

00:49:08.040 question.

00:49:09.240 But how

00:49:09.500 is your

00:49:09.940 knowledge about

00:49:10.580 that topic?

00:49:12.020 See, lots

00:49:12.500 of people are

00:49:13.360 quite knowledgeable,

00:49:14.480 which is good.

00:49:16.340 Marginal, some

00:49:17.240 people, it's

00:49:18.440 common sense,

00:49:19.480 somebody said.

00:49:21.360 So itty bitty,

00:49:22.040 you made the

00:49:23.460 perfect comment.

00:49:25.100 Somebody said

00:49:25.680 it's common

00:49:26.220 sense.

00:49:27.680 Let me test

00:49:28.480 that.

00:49:29.220 How many of

00:49:29.760 you would say

00:49:30.240 that decision

00:49:31.000 boils down to

00:49:32.560 common sense?

00:49:35.300 Obviously, some

00:49:36.280 people say.

00:49:38.280 Some say no.

00:49:40.580 Some say no,

00:49:41.320 it's not common

00:49:41.900 sense.

00:49:42.980 Well, I'm on the

00:49:43.880 side that says

00:49:44.340 it's not common

00:49:45.140 sense.

00:49:45.540 it's sort

00:49:46.900 of an

00:49:47.600 illusion that

00:49:48.380 it is,

00:49:49.440 meaning that

00:49:50.020 it looks like

00:49:50.620 a simple

00:49:51.000 question that

00:49:52.660 has some

00:49:53.200 levels that

00:49:53.840 are not

00:49:54.140 obvious.

00:49:55.000 And I'll

00:49:55.200 tell you

00:49:55.440 about those.

00:49:57.660 And let me

00:49:58.320 start with

00:49:58.700 this.

00:49:59.960 Would you

00:50:00.440 agree?

00:50:01.020 I guess there

00:50:01.500 are a whole

00:50:01.720 bunch of

00:50:02.060 studies.

00:50:03.660 So Marty

00:50:04.420 Macari is a

00:50:05.320 professor at

00:50:06.080 John Hopkins

00:50:06.660 School of

00:50:07.980 Medicine.

00:50:09.340 And so he's

00:50:10.640 got credentials

00:50:11.280 and he's the

00:50:12.220 editor-in-chief

00:50:12.820 of MedPage

00:50:13.540 today.

00:50:14.480 So somebody

00:50:15.040 has really

00:50:15.440 tapped into

00:50:16.100 the scientific

00:50:16.720 and medical

00:50:17.560 process.

00:50:19.040 And he

00:50:20.000 tells us that

00:50:20.560 there are 15

00:50:21.220 studies that

00:50:21.860 have demonstrated

00:50:22.420 the power of

00:50:23.080 immunity by

00:50:24.460 the previously

00:50:25.200 infected.

00:50:26.560 There was a

00:50:27.260 700,000 person

00:50:28.620 study, pretty

00:50:29.680 big, from

00:50:30.760 Israel recently

00:50:32.640 that if you

00:50:34.600 had a prior

00:50:36.180 infection you

00:50:36.740 were 27

00:50:37.420 times less

00:50:38.280 likely to get

00:50:39.000 a second

00:50:39.520 symptomatic

00:50:41.020 infection.

00:50:42.120 I guess they

00:50:42.520 had the

00:50:43.000 symptomatic

00:50:43.460 part, than

00:50:44.580 those who

00:50:44.980 were vaccinated.

00:50:47.440 This affirmed

00:50:48.320 other studies

00:50:49.040 and apparently

00:50:49.520 the studies,

00:50:50.640 pretty much all

00:50:51.300 of them seem

00:50:51.720 to be in the

00:50:52.120 same direction.

00:50:53.580 That natural

00:50:55.060 immunity gives

00:50:57.120 you far more

00:50:58.140 immunity than

00:50:59.700 even vaccinations.

00:51:01.280 All right, how

00:51:01.540 many of you knew

00:51:02.100 that so far?

00:51:04.440 And somebody

00:51:05.160 says natural

00:51:05.980 is seven times

00:51:06.700 better.

00:51:07.140 Yeah, I don't

00:51:07.820 think it's 27

00:51:08.540 times, but that's

00:51:09.760 what this says.

00:51:11.020 I feel like it's

00:51:12.400 a multiple, but

00:51:13.220 that 27 sounds

00:51:14.280 high.

00:51:17.160 All right, so

00:51:18.640 if you knew

00:51:19.260 that, would you

00:51:20.200 say it's

00:51:20.580 common sense?

00:51:22.720 Common sense,

00:51:23.580 right?

00:51:24.260 If you've got

00:51:24.940 one kind of

00:51:25.520 immunity that's

00:51:26.200 27 times better

00:51:27.260 than the other

00:51:27.720 one, why do you

00:51:30.300 need a vaccination?

00:51:31.660 How many of you

00:51:32.280 would say that

00:51:32.860 is common sense

00:51:33.900 and we're done?

00:51:34.480 If it's true,

00:51:37.940 that on average,

00:51:38.840 I'm going to

00:51:40.780 throw you in a

00:51:41.380 little wrinkle

00:51:42.100 here, on

00:51:42.840 average, on

00:51:44.380 average, an

00:51:45.700 infected person

00:51:46.420 has way more

00:51:47.840 antibodies and

00:51:51.100 way more

00:51:51.720 protection, on

00:51:52.920 average.

00:51:54.340 So common

00:51:55.160 sense says you

00:51:56.280 don't need the

00:51:56.720 vaccination if,

00:51:58.400 on average, it's

00:52:00.880 just as good.

00:52:02.660 Right?

00:52:04.220 Jordan says,

00:52:05.220 is Scott

00:52:05.580 coming around?

00:52:09.200 What does

00:52:09.760 that mean?

00:52:11.140 Coming around

00:52:11.900 to what?

00:52:12.920 Well, let's

00:52:13.540 find out.

00:52:15.120 All right, so

00:52:16.660 let me test your

00:52:17.540 common sense.

00:52:18.860 So you all

00:52:19.480 employed your

00:52:20.000 common sense.

00:52:21.020 On average,

00:52:21.800 natural immunity

00:52:22.420 is way better

00:52:23.600 than a

00:52:24.020 vaccination.

00:52:25.060 I think we

00:52:25.580 all agree on

00:52:26.280 that.

00:52:26.840 Let's stipulate

00:52:27.540 that.

00:52:28.180 Can we

00:52:28.480 stipulate it?

00:52:29.760 Will you

00:52:30.360 allow me to

00:52:30.940 say that on

00:52:31.480 average, that

00:52:33.600 that's just

00:52:34.560 settled science

00:52:36.060 or as

00:52:37.080 settled as

00:52:37.540 anything gets

00:52:38.060 these days?

00:52:39.760 Okay, everybody's

00:52:40.460 saying yes.

00:52:41.820 Everybody's on

00:52:42.520 board with that

00:52:43.220 statement.

00:52:44.380 That on

00:52:44.820 average, natural

00:52:46.720 immunity is way

00:52:47.500 better than a

00:52:47.960 vaccination.

00:52:49.280 Okay?

00:52:50.060 All right, so

00:52:50.740 let me give you

00:52:51.320 another question

00:52:52.020 that's based on

00:52:52.740 also your

00:52:54.080 common sense.

00:52:56.000 You ready?

00:52:57.740 The people who

00:52:58.640 are on the

00:52:59.020 payroll of the

00:53:00.040 LA Lakers, a

00:53:01.040 basketball team,

00:53:02.620 are on average

00:53:03.560 6'5".

00:53:05.320 The people who

00:53:07.500 are on the

00:53:07.840 payroll for

00:53:09.000 all the jobs

00:53:09.800 related to the

00:53:10.520 LA Lakers are

00:53:12.260 on average, let's

00:53:13.680 just say the

00:53:14.100 men, are on

00:53:15.180 average 6'5".

00:53:17.060 How tall is

00:53:19.920 the guy who

00:53:20.900 cleans the

00:53:22.440 sweat off the

00:53:23.260 court?

00:53:24.060 He might be a

00:53:24.800 water boy too,

00:53:25.620 but how tall is

00:53:26.820 the guy who

00:53:27.200 cleans the sweat

00:53:27.860 off the court?

00:53:28.460 He's also on

00:53:28.940 the payroll.

00:53:31.820 Is he 6'5"?

00:53:33.220 Why not?

00:53:36.960 Oh, wait a

00:53:37.620 minute, wait a

00:53:38.060 minute.

00:53:39.020 I thought

00:53:39.660 common sense

00:53:40.240 told you he's

00:53:40.880 6'5".

00:53:41.660 You just told

00:53:44.820 me that if

00:53:46.160 the average

00:53:47.120 person with

00:53:47.800 immunity is

00:53:51.120 got, you know,

00:53:51.960 way more than

00:53:52.760 the average

00:53:53.400 person who's

00:53:53.960 vaccinated,

00:53:55.480 then you

00:53:59.820 know something

00:54:00.380 about whether

00:54:01.800 each individual

00:54:02.540 should get

00:54:02.960 vaccinated.

00:54:04.080 But are you

00:54:04.700 telling me that

00:54:05.220 just knowing the

00:54:05.860 average of how

00:54:06.580 tall people

00:54:07.120 doesn't tell you

00:54:07.880 anything about

00:54:08.300 the individual?

00:54:10.200 What, am I

00:54:10.640 just learning that

00:54:11.360 an average

00:54:11.980 doesn't tell me

00:54:13.040 anything about

00:54:13.540 an individual?

00:54:14.080 Well, my

00:54:15.820 common sense told

00:54:16.580 me everybody was

00:54:17.220 6'5".

00:54:18.080 Or close.

00:54:22.420 You're getting

00:54:23.100 really mad now,

00:54:23.920 aren't you?

00:54:24.860 All right, here's

00:54:25.740 the counter-argument

00:54:26.680 tentatively.

00:54:28.480 What if, on

00:54:31.160 average, the

00:54:31.960 natural immunity

00:54:33.680 is way better?

00:54:35.160 And I think we

00:54:35.720 all stipulate that

00:54:36.480 that's probably

00:54:37.160 true.

00:54:38.160 But what if the

00:54:38.840 variability is

00:54:40.420 greater?

00:54:42.300 What if the

00:54:43.600 people with

00:54:44.020 natural immunity,

00:54:45.200 some of them

00:54:45.800 have amazing

00:54:46.540 immunity, but

00:54:48.020 others have

00:54:48.800 much lower

00:54:49.820 immunity than

00:54:50.460 a vaccination

00:54:51.080 on average?

00:54:52.540 Is that

00:54:53.160 possible?

00:54:55.960 Is it?

00:54:56.920 Is it possible

00:54:58.360 that not all

00:54:59.840 the people who

00:55:00.380 get natural

00:55:00.960 immunity have

00:55:01.500 the same amount

00:55:02.160 and that some

00:55:03.120 have lower

00:55:03.820 immunity?

00:55:07.360 Yeah, it's

00:55:07.900 possible.

00:55:08.840 How do you

00:55:09.360 know?

00:55:10.680 What would be

00:55:11.420 the practical

00:55:12.180 way with our

00:55:13.360 current testing,

00:55:14.400 current technology,

00:55:15.380 right, and our

00:55:15.820 current limitations?

00:55:16.920 I know it's

00:55:17.420 technically possible,

00:55:18.800 but with current

00:55:19.540 limitations, how

00:55:21.300 would you know

00:55:21.840 if your natural

00:55:22.580 vaccination or your

00:55:24.240 natural immunity

00:55:25.140 was the good

00:55:25.740 kind, the

00:55:27.040 really high

00:55:27.480 kind, or not

00:55:28.660 the good

00:55:28.940 kind?

00:55:29.720 How would

00:55:30.040 you know?

00:55:32.480 You wouldn't

00:55:33.060 know.

00:55:33.840 You wouldn't

00:55:34.440 know if any

00:55:36.340 individual on

00:55:37.160 the Lakers is

00:55:38.020 seven foot tall

00:55:38.900 or five foot

00:55:40.640 three.

00:55:41.780 You have no

00:55:42.460 way of knowing.

00:55:43.000 If the only

00:55:43.380 thing you know

00:55:43.820 is the average,

00:55:44.560 you don't know

00:55:44.920 anything about

00:55:45.360 the individuals.

00:55:46.740 Now, here's the

00:55:47.300 question.

00:55:48.320 If you imagined,

00:55:49.500 and I'm just

00:55:50.560 going to make up

00:55:51.080 a number now

00:55:51.600 because I don't

00:55:52.000 know the actual

00:55:52.500 number.

00:55:52.720 Let's say 40%

00:55:56.700 of the people

00:55:57.500 with natural

00:55:58.100 immunity are a

00:56:00.660 little bit too

00:56:01.120 low, meaning

00:56:03.420 that they'd be

00:56:03.980 better off with

00:56:04.600 more immunity,

00:56:05.740 more antibodies.

00:56:08.040 What if?

00:56:09.860 Would that be a

00:56:10.740 reason to

00:56:11.440 immunize everybody 0.94

00:56:12.660 because you don't

00:56:14.320 know if somebody

00:56:15.860 has been

00:56:16.200 previously infected,

00:56:17.860 you don't know

00:56:18.520 if they're in the

00:56:19.000 40%.

00:56:19.700 They're probably

00:56:22.200 in the 60%,

00:56:23.200 but you don't

00:56:24.920 know, and you

00:56:26.380 don't have a way

00:56:26.880 to test.

00:56:28.020 You can test to

00:56:29.000 find out if they

00:56:29.500 have antibodies,

00:56:30.680 but you don't

00:56:31.220 have any mass

00:56:31.980 way to test

00:56:32.740 instantly to find

00:56:34.280 out if anybody's

00:56:34.940 got good immunity.

00:56:38.400 Now, here's the

00:56:40.880 second question.

00:56:42.280 Let's see if your

00:56:42.880 common sense told

00:56:43.740 you this.

00:56:44.200 Is it true that

00:56:46.920 the more antibodies,

00:56:48.260 the better?

00:56:49.700 Go.

00:56:50.920 In the comments,

00:56:53.040 is it true,

00:56:53.920 just always true,

00:56:55.740 is it just always

00:56:56.480 true that more

00:56:57.780 antibodies is better

00:56:58.860 than not having

00:57:01.000 more?

00:57:02.940 Exactly.

00:57:04.020 Some people say

00:57:04.700 true.

00:57:05.240 Some people say

00:57:05.880 no.

00:57:07.020 Well, now, what

00:57:07.660 happened to your

00:57:08.120 common sense?

00:57:09.760 You told me that

00:57:10.880 this was common

00:57:11.540 sense, but why are

00:57:13.340 you disagreeing on

00:57:14.180 such an important

00:57:14.780 question?

00:57:15.820 If it's common

00:57:16.420 sense, you'd all

00:57:17.000 have the same

00:57:17.380 answer.

00:57:17.620 Yeah, so here's

00:57:22.900 the question.

00:57:24.480 If it's true that

00:57:25.560 natural immunity

00:57:26.620 gives you more

00:57:27.740 antibodies, does it

00:57:28.880 matter?

00:57:30.240 Or does everybody

00:57:31.720 have enough if

00:57:32.460 they've got

00:57:32.840 vaccinated?

00:57:33.960 And secondly, if

00:57:35.840 you've got some

00:57:36.660 antibodies, but

00:57:37.520 let's say it's way

00:57:38.620 less than the

00:57:39.400 average vaccinated

00:57:40.260 person.

00:57:41.480 Let's say you've

00:57:42.280 got natural

00:57:42.780 immunity.

00:57:43.160 What if it

00:57:44.600 could be tested?

00:57:45.580 You have fewer

00:57:46.360 antibodies than a

00:57:47.340 vaccinated person.

00:57:49.440 Should that person 0.80

00:57:50.340 be vaccinated?

00:57:53.460 Now, I say it's a

00:57:54.440 personal choice, so

00:57:55.620 I'm anti-mandate.

00:57:57.320 So, but could a

00:57:59.460 reasonable person, if

00:58:01.480 they didn't know what

00:58:02.620 their immunity level

00:58:03.540 was, and let's say

00:58:05.020 they're 80.

00:58:06.380 Let's say you're 80

00:58:07.280 years old.

00:58:09.040 Well, actually, if

00:58:09.800 you're 80 and you've

00:58:10.520 already survived COVID,

00:58:11.940 you're probably

00:58:12.480 bulletproof, you're

00:58:13.820 probably immortal at

00:58:14.660 that point.

00:58:15.500 So maybe that's a

00:58:16.280 bad example.

00:58:17.160 Let's say you're 60.

00:58:19.380 Let's say you're 60

00:58:20.460 and you've already

00:58:21.160 been infected, but

00:58:22.600 you don't have any

00:58:23.500 practical way of

00:58:24.320 knowing if you're one

00:58:25.760 who got enough

00:58:26.420 antibodies, or if

00:58:27.720 you're on the lower

00:58:28.340 end, and it's better

00:58:29.540 than nothing, but you

00:58:30.380 might get pretty sick

00:58:31.180 anyway.

00:58:32.340 Should you get

00:58:32.780 vaccinated?

00:58:36.540 All right.

00:58:38.500 So here's the only

00:58:39.300 thing I'm trying to

00:58:39.880 add to the

00:58:40.280 conversation.

00:58:41.940 Don't trust your

00:58:42.580 common sense, because

00:58:45.260 it doesn't apply here.

00:58:47.380 The things you don't

00:58:48.440 know are if you're

00:58:49.600 looking at the

00:58:50.060 average of one thing

00:58:51.060 compared to the

00:58:51.640 average of another,

00:58:52.760 that's not enough

00:58:53.640 information.

00:58:54.940 Because if one is

00:58:55.920 wildly varied, let me

00:58:57.520 give you the extreme.

00:58:59.660 So this will be

00:59:00.460 easier to, you know,

00:59:01.480 not everybody's good

00:59:02.620 with statistics.

00:59:04.200 So I'll give you an

00:59:04.920 extreme just to

00:59:06.720 understand the math,

00:59:07.840 right?

00:59:08.040 But the reality is

00:59:09.200 not the extreme.

00:59:10.300 So let's say that of

00:59:11.800 all the people in the

00:59:12.580 world who had ever

00:59:13.220 been infected, that

00:59:16.460 one of those people,

00:59:17.460 just one, out of the

00:59:18.920 hundreds of millions

00:59:19.920 who got infected, what

00:59:21.080 if one of them got a

00:59:24.220 zillion, trillion

00:59:25.040 antibodies, and all the

00:59:27.160 other people didn't get

00:59:27.940 any?

00:59:28.920 What would be the

00:59:29.780 average?

00:59:31.480 All right.

00:59:31.740 On average, it would

00:59:33.200 look like natural

00:59:34.260 infection is way better.

00:59:35.240 Because that one person

00:59:36.620 got a million trillion

00:59:38.640 antibodies.

00:59:40.440 Nobody else got any.

00:59:42.460 But when you averaged

00:59:43.300 them together, it was

00:59:44.180 higher than the average

00:59:45.720 of vaccination.

00:59:47.220 Now, of course, I'm

00:59:48.040 making up the example.

00:59:49.280 But the point is, if you

00:59:50.920 had wide variability in

00:59:52.500 one thing and narrow

00:59:54.740 variability in another,

00:59:56.720 you can't compare the

00:59:57.940 average for this

01:00:00.140 decision.

01:00:01.220 For other decisions,

01:00:02.480 yes.

01:00:03.280 But for this decision,

01:00:04.440 you can't compare

01:00:05.720 averages, and that's

01:00:06.600 what you all did.

01:00:08.360 Am I right?

01:00:09.360 Am I right that you all

01:00:10.540 compared averages and

01:00:12.220 thought that you used

01:00:13.180 your common sense?

01:00:14.660 And when I walked you

01:00:15.600 through this, you could

01:00:16.260 see that comparing

01:00:16.920 averages could get you

01:00:19.400 to the absolute wrong

01:00:20.460 decision.

01:00:24.880 All right.

01:00:25.780 But let me ask you to

01:00:27.020 just bring it down to

01:00:28.340 this.

01:00:28.880 Would you agree with

01:00:29.700 the general statement

01:00:30.420 that you can't compare

01:00:31.320 the averages because it's

01:00:32.360 not enough information?

01:00:33.340 Have I sold you on just

01:00:35.700 that one point?

01:00:36.820 I'm not going to try to

01:00:37.540 change your mind on

01:00:38.200 vaccinations.

01:00:39.760 I'm not going to try to

01:00:40.700 change your mind on

01:00:41.480 mandates.

01:00:42.500 None of that.

01:00:43.780 I'm just asking you, do

01:00:45.700 you think that knowing the

01:00:46.580 average of immunity from

01:00:47.920 one and comparing it to

01:00:49.640 the average immunity of

01:00:50.840 the other tells you

01:00:51.780 enough?

01:00:53.340 It doesn't.

01:00:54.940 It doesn't.

01:00:55.640 Now, if you wanted to

01:00:56.560 argue it tells me enough

01:00:57.660 for freedom purposes, I

01:01:00.620 would agree with you on

01:01:01.340 that, okay?

01:01:02.680 If you're making a

01:01:03.480 medical decision, it

01:01:04.380 doesn't tell you enough.

01:01:05.700 If you're making a

01:01:06.580 personal freedom decision,

01:01:08.500 sure.

01:01:11.100 Whatever you want is

01:01:12.200 enough.

01:01:13.100 If it's your personal

01:01:13.980 freedom that you're

01:01:14.760 making the decision, if

01:01:15.520 that's your main

01:01:16.080 variable, then I don't

01:01:18.760 even care how much

01:01:19.500 information you have.

01:01:20.980 That's up to you.

01:01:22.500 You figure it out. 1.00

01:01:24.020 Oh, shit. 1.00

01:01:24.740 I'm late. 1.00

01:01:25.240 I've got to go.

01:01:25.660 Okay.

01:01:26.900 Alright.

01:01:28.400 Hold on.

01:01:41.200 Bye.

01:01:41.460 Bye.

01:01:41.520 Bye.

01:01:41.580 Bye.

01:01:42.720 Bye.

01:01:43.020 Bye.

01:01:43.940 Bye.

01:01:48.880 Bye.

01:01:53.540 Bye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 18, 2021

Episode 1533 Scott Adams： I'll Tell You About the Time I Met Colin Powell and More

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