Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1553 Scott Adams： Looks As If All Our Problems Have Been Solved Except Celebrities Killing People

00:00:00.400 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the best thing that ever happened to you and maybe anybody else.

00:00:08.400 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and there's a little thing called the Simultaneous Sip that's coming up in a moment.

00:00:14.360 But I have to set the stage.

00:00:17.160 Have I ever told you how much I hate sleeping?

00:00:20.300 I'm the only person I know. I'm sure there are others.

00:00:23.140 But I hate sleeping.

00:00:24.480 And so I wake up just naturally quite early.

00:00:30.160 I start work at 4 a.m. usually would be my ideal time to start work.

00:00:35.880 So last night, I woke up in bed, and I thought to myself, you know, I think I'm just going to get up because I was awake.

00:00:46.680 And I didn't really check the clock because my internal clock's pretty accurate.

00:00:51.160 And I thought, that's pretty close to 4 a.m., give or take.

00:00:55.400 So I got up.

00:00:57.060 It turned out to be 1.45.

00:00:59.900 1.45 is when I woke up this morning.

00:01:03.080 And I was already up and around and petting the dog, and I thought, you too?

00:01:09.500 Is that Vegas?

00:01:10.340 So, let's just say that the quality of this live stream might be a little bit lower than what you used to.

00:01:21.120 I'm just trying to set the expectations.

00:01:23.640 But still, despite all of that, how terrific is it going to be to do the simultaneous sample?

00:01:30.380 It's going to be amazing.

00:01:31.320 And all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tanker gels, a stein, a canteen jug, a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:01:38.640 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:01:40.600 I like coffee.

00:01:42.300 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine each other day, the thing that makes everything better, especially your antibodies.

00:01:49.040 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.

00:01:50.580 I don't know about you, but sometimes if you're leaning, when you have the simultaneous sip, it'll stimulate the antibodies only on the lower side of your body.

00:02:07.840 So, if you made the mistake I did, which was leaning while you did it, try this.

00:02:13.160 Lean the other way.

00:02:17.260 There, we go.

00:02:18.400 There we go.

00:02:21.560 Antibodies stimulated and evenly distributed.

00:02:26.480 Now we're in good shape.

00:02:28.780 All right.

00:02:29.860 Question for all of you.

00:02:31.520 I was just chatting with the local subscribers before I fired up YouTube.

00:02:36.260 And I'm going to ask you the same question on YouTube.

00:02:40.100 Is body language real?

00:02:42.160 In other words, is it a skill which you can learn and apply?

00:02:48.020 Or maybe you've already learned it, and then you apply it.

00:02:52.640 Is body language real?

00:02:54.400 Go.

00:02:55.800 Yes, yes, yes.

00:02:57.360 Yes, yes.

00:02:58.100 Absolutely.

00:02:59.240 Yes, yes, yes.

00:03:00.600 Yes, yes, yes.

00:03:02.000 Okay.

00:03:02.740 Looks like we have universal agreement that body language is real.

00:03:06.960 Well, question number two.

00:03:10.640 How do you know you're good at reading it?

00:03:15.340 Yeah, you're not so certain now, are you?

00:03:17.260 Here's my observation.

00:03:21.140 It doesn't matter if body language is real or not.

00:03:25.260 For most purposes.

00:03:28.160 It doesn't matter.

00:03:30.160 Because you don't know if you're good at reading it.

00:03:33.560 That's the problem.

00:03:34.560 The problem is not whether body language is real.

00:03:40.920 The problem is you think you can read it, and you can't.

00:03:45.520 You're terrible at it.

00:03:48.160 It's the same problem with pattern recognition, right?

00:03:51.740 Our brains are pattern recognition machines.

00:03:55.000 And we see patterns, and we think they mean something, even when they don't.

00:03:58.900 That's why we have science, to essentially get around our own illusions about patterns.

00:04:05.820 Well, don't you think that your pattern recognition is what's driving your interpretation of body language?

00:04:14.220 All right, so now you all think that body language is a real thing.

00:04:19.040 You got real quiet.

00:04:20.720 Here's my next question.

00:04:22.720 You ready to have your brain blown off?

00:04:25.480 You ready?

00:04:26.060 You ready?

00:04:26.420 You ready?

00:04:26.480 How many of you listening or watching right now have been accused of feeling something you did not feel

00:04:37.380 because somebody you know misread your body language?

00:04:42.340 How many this week?

00:04:44.340 This week.

00:04:45.620 I'll read your messages.

00:04:48.020 All the time, most of the time, me, me, me, yep, often, yep, yep, yep, yep, yes, true, true, true, yes, true.

00:04:54.340 Every, now read here.

00:04:57.380 Every day, a few no's.

00:05:00.020 Every day, every day, yes, yes, yes, every day.

00:05:04.480 All right?

00:05:05.200 Now, you see where I'm going here?

00:05:09.560 If body language reading were a real thing, don't you think they'd read your body language right?

00:05:16.560 Don't you think that the people who accused you of being, let's say, angry when you weren't angry or not interested when you were interested,

00:05:26.700 whatever it was they were blaming you of, don't you think that the person who did that thought that they were good at reading body language?

00:05:34.540 Wouldn't you say?

00:05:35.120 Probably every person who falsely accused you because they read your body language wrong, I'll bet every one of them, thought they did it well.

00:05:45.340 Right?

00:05:47.160 It's sort of like do your own research.

00:05:50.220 How many of you think that it's wise and notable to do your own research?

00:05:55.040 There's a big story, most of you have seen it, about quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was getting a lot of attention because he was fairly eloquent in describing his process of deciding whether to get vaccinated or not.

00:06:10.520 He decided apparently not to.

00:06:13.100 He thought there were some risks of allergic reactions in his case that might be unique to him.

00:06:19.460 I don't know if that's a thing.

00:06:21.480 Do you?

00:06:21.860 Is that a thing?

00:06:25.940 I don't know.

00:06:27.060 I mean, I looked it up and I couldn't find that it's a thing, but he thinks it's a thing.

00:06:31.460 Now, if I asked you, should you do your own research and talk to your doctor to decide what to do, most of you would say what?

00:06:42.380 Should you do your own research on, let's say, anything but vaccinations and then talk to your doctor?

00:06:49.220 That's the way you should handle it, right?

00:06:50.420 Do your own research and talk to your doctor.

00:06:52.860 How many of you think you should only do one of those?

00:06:56.960 Only your own research or only talk to your own doctor?

00:07:01.280 Nobody, right?

00:07:02.420 You would all agree 100% that you should do your own research and then talk to your doctor.

00:07:07.840 You know doctors are saying different things, right?

00:07:13.800 They're not all saying the same thing.

00:07:17.120 So how do you know you got the right doctor?

00:07:19.140 You're basically imagining that you were good at picking a doctor.

00:07:25.720 You probably didn't pick your doctor.

00:07:28.840 Most of you just sort of took the doctor that was there because you don't know how to pick a good doctor from a bad doctor.

00:07:34.960 So, and similar to getting a financial advisor.

00:07:40.820 There are more financial advisors than there are stocks.

00:07:44.680 How do you know you got a good financial advisor?

00:07:46.700 They don't beat the market more than a monkey with a dartboard.

00:07:51.120 They usually do worse than a monkey with a dartboard.

00:07:54.040 Let's say compared to index funds.

00:07:55.620 So here's the problem that we run into all the time.

00:08:00.400 Body language is totally real, but you can't do it.

00:08:05.640 You just think you can.

00:08:09.000 Financial analysis, in which you look at the pros and cons of companies and study their balance sheets

00:08:14.640 and look at their business model and study the management quality, that's very real.

00:08:21.680 You can't do it.

00:08:23.640 But you think you can.

00:08:25.620 You think you can.

00:08:28.760 Likewise, doing your own research to decide what you should do about vaccinations.

00:08:34.480 You think you can do that.

00:08:36.980 But you can't.

00:08:38.820 You can't.

00:08:40.280 Likewise, almost everything that you see on Twitter that's a graph or a chart or is proving something,

00:08:46.000 you think you can read that and come to a decision that's pretty good.

00:08:50.080 But you can't.

00:08:51.440 You don't have those skills.

00:08:53.420 Nobody does.

00:08:54.120 Basically, nobody does.

00:08:56.700 You know, the reason that I continually promote people like Andres Backhaus and Anatoly Lubarsky is that they seem to be very close to having those skills.

00:09:08.240 But of course, nobody's right all the time, right?

00:09:11.140 So when you don't know how bad you are at something until you see somebody who's good at it, would you agree with that?

00:09:18.320 Would you agree that, generally speaking, it's impossible to know how bad you are at something until you meet somebody who's good at it?

00:09:25.620 Take singing, for example.

00:09:27.680 Take singing, for example.

00:09:29.000 Suppose you had never met a good singer.

00:09:31.600 You probably thought you could do it.

00:09:34.040 And then you meet Mariah Carey and you say, oh, okay, I don't know what I was doing, but that wasn't singing.

00:09:39.120 That singing, whatever I was doing, I don't even know what that was anymore.

00:09:42.640 So the problem is you'll never meet somebody who's good at body language, because there aren't many of them.

00:09:48.680 I don't know if there are any of them, really.

00:09:50.180 But I'm assuming that the people who study it professionally probably are pretty good at it, pretty good.

00:09:56.940 But you're never going to meet them, right?

00:09:59.400 And it's not you.

00:10:00.420 So all I would encourage you to do is have some humility about the assumption that you can do your own research.

00:10:10.340 Now, let me give you my macro opinion of Aaron Rodgers.

00:10:14.020 A bunch of people sent me his video and said, hey, this is really persuasive.

00:10:18.760 This guy gets it.

00:10:21.320 And here's where he lost me.

00:10:25.620 He lost me when he called himself a critical thinker.

00:10:30.420 So far, so good, right?

00:10:32.180 Called himself a critical thinker.

00:10:33.900 And then he demonstrated it by saying that he did his own research.

00:10:38.160 That's where he lost me.

00:10:40.080 Because if you're a critical thinker, you know you can't.

00:10:43.620 If he were a critical thinker, he would know that he can't do his own research.

00:10:47.580 Not in any reliable way.

00:10:50.260 I mean, even if he were a top researcher, he probably couldn't.

00:10:53.600 Let me give you another example.

00:10:54.760 The director of the CDC, I guess, recently claimed that face masks are 80% effective.

00:11:04.580 Really?

00:11:06.260 Really?

00:11:07.280 Is there anybody who believes that face masks are 80% effective?

00:11:11.840 80%?

00:11:12.460 Even the people who are in favor of them are giving numbers that are like sub-20% and we're

00:11:19.020 not even entirely sure about that, right?

00:11:22.320 So, of course, this caused somebody in the comments to that, there was a tweet about it.

00:11:29.200 And as soon as I saw it, I thought, that must be a typo.

00:11:32.760 Didn't you think that?

00:11:33.640 If you saw that the head, the director of the CDC, the director, if you read something

00:11:42.420 that said she thought masks were 80% effective, wouldn't you think that was a typo?

00:11:47.300 Or it just didn't really happen?

00:11:50.020 But apparently it did.

00:11:51.720 It did.

00:11:52.440 And apparently, and I didn't know this, there are a whole bunch of studies that show that

00:11:55.840 masks are 70 to 80% effective in certain situations that are basically not this one.

00:12:01.620 How long did it take for somebody to reply to the tweet that showed a whole bunch of studies

00:12:08.740 that show masks totally work?

00:12:11.320 How long did it take somebody to paste a whole bunch of studies that show masks totally don't

00:12:17.200 work?

00:12:18.400 About a second.

00:12:20.860 So right next to each other on Twitter is a link to an article that mentions a whole

00:12:26.620 bunch of studies, masks totally work, and then another one, a whole bunch of studies,

00:12:31.180 masks totally don't work.

00:12:32.980 So when Aaron Rodgers goes to do his own research, how does he sort that out?

00:12:38.460 Now, he was talking about vaccinations, not masks, but it's a perfect example. 0.99

00:12:42.920 Do you think Aaron Rodgers, with whatever skill stack he brings to this, could be a critical

00:12:49.120 thinker and then sort out whether masks work or not with two completely different sets

00:12:55.440 of answers?

00:12:55.940 I can't.

00:12:56.440 I can't.

00:12:57.440 I can't.

00:12:58.440 Could you?

00:12:59.440 How many of you could do that?

00:13:01.440 Right?

00:13:02.440 So he did his own research, but it's absurd because he never knows what he doesn't know.

00:13:09.440 Right?

00:13:10.440 If you're from the outside of an area of expertise, unless you're unusually smart, unless you're

00:13:22.260 Elon Musk smart, you can't enter somebody else's field and figure it out.

00:13:29.420 Well, that's not a thing.

00:13:33.260 You know, it's a thing for the smartest among us, but it's not a thing, generally speaking.

00:13:38.280 And it's certainly not a thing that Aaron Rodgers did.

00:13:40.740 So when he calls himself a critical thinker, I challenge that.

00:13:44.120 Because a critical thinker would know that you can't do what he claims to have done.

00:13:49.360 It's not doable with the brains we have and the information that's available to us.

00:13:54.720 It's just not doable in any rational way.

00:13:57.000 All right, let's talk about this.

00:13:59.900 I am so interested in the Steele dossier story update because something's happening, right?

00:14:07.700 And I don't know exactly what it is because some parts of the media are treating it like

00:14:14.560 it's not even a story, but it looks like it's the biggest story.

00:14:18.700 And so we have these two movies running at the same time that is the biggest thing I've

00:14:25.240 seen in years, or it's nothing.

00:14:29.460 Or, you know, just some weasels did some lying. 0.89

00:14:32.720 That's about it.

00:14:34.280 So it's either some weasels did some lying, or Hillary Clinton was behind, or her campaign

00:14:40.460 was behind, a legitimate plan to overthrow the, basically to cheat in the major election

00:14:47.400 and or overthrow a sitting president once Trump was elected.

00:14:53.440 It's either, what is it?

00:14:54.580 Is it the worst thing in the world, or is it nothing?

00:14:58.140 Do your own research.

00:15:00.440 Go look at the media.

00:15:02.460 Do you think you could figure it out?

00:15:03.900 If it's nothing, or it's a whole bunch?

00:15:06.960 Well, I think this story is telling you how deeply the intelligence assets in this country

00:15:15.020 are embedded in the media.

00:15:16.900 That's all this is telling us, right?

00:15:20.380 You know, as Glenn Greenwald often tweets and writes, that the public isn't fully aware

00:15:26.840 that major parts of our media are just controlled by the CIA or CIA assets or some damn intelligence

00:15:35.480 units of the government.

00:15:38.380 And this isn't conspiracy theory stuff.

00:15:43.080 This is really well-documented stuff.

00:15:46.360 I don't know if anybody even...

00:15:48.200 I don't think there's anybody serious who even doubts it, right?

00:15:51.620 That our intelligence agencies directly influence the news.

00:15:54.940 And so when you see that this story is sort of semi-disappeared, it's definitely covered

00:16:02.520 and the opinion people are talking about it, but it should be the main story, I think, and

00:16:11.600 yet sort of downplayed everywhere.

00:16:15.280 Now, actually, that's an exaggeration.

00:16:18.220 The Washington Post covered it, so I'll give them that.

00:16:21.120 Jonathan Swan, I think he's Axios, tweeted that, tweeted the Washington Post coverage.

00:16:27.580 So I looked on Axios to see the coverage, and there wasn't anything today, but I'm sure

00:16:32.560 they covered it originally.

00:16:35.800 And so Jonathan Swan summarizes the Washington Post coverage of it this way.

00:16:41.540 He says, the charges are not only did Clinton slash Democrats fund the dossier, but a long

00:16:49.180 time Clinton slash Dem operative was one of the sources for the rumors about Trump.

00:16:54.640 And then he summarizes that by saying, doesn't get much worse.

00:16:59.340 Right, right.

00:17:00.960 As in, it's the biggest story.

00:17:03.080 It doesn't get much worse.

00:17:05.080 But it's not the biggest story.

00:17:06.740 Do you see now that there's somebody deciding what a story is?

00:17:23.220 You get that, right?

00:17:25.180 There's somebody, and it probably varies depending on what the story is, but somebody controls

00:17:31.800 whether or not the world thinks it matters.

00:17:34.680 And amazingly, whoever that is, or those people, or entities, or a series of forces, whatever

00:17:42.800 it is, has decided that this won't get attention.

00:17:47.520 It's really freaky, isn't it?

00:17:49.580 When you see it in real time.

00:17:51.660 When you see that the news is just not even close to real.

00:17:55.380 It's just a brainwashing operation.

00:17:58.560 You can't see who's pulling the strings all the time, but sometimes you can see the strings.

00:18:03.040 This is one of those times when you can see the strings.

00:18:06.100 You're like, hey, hey, hey, I can actually see those strings.

00:18:11.380 And it won't matter.

00:18:12.940 What are you going to do about it?

00:18:14.720 So let's say you and I see how bad this story is.

00:18:18.200 What are you going to do about it?

00:18:20.300 Nothing, right?

00:18:21.540 What am I going to do about it?

00:18:22.900 I can't think of anything I can do about it.

00:18:25.540 Wait?

00:18:26.060 I don't know.

00:18:27.040 So it's a weird story.

00:18:28.820 It's the biggest story ever.

00:18:29.900 Barr treated like it's nothing.

00:18:34.160 To be even more amazed, it turns out that Rachel Maddow is running a report that Durham,

00:18:41.360 the very same person who's coming out with this new information,

00:18:45.040 and Barr, ex-AG Barr, intentionally ignored emails that, quote,

00:18:49.760 prove Trump was in direct communications with the Russian Alpha Bank.

00:18:54.760 A covert communication channel existed during the 2016 campaign that Barr and Durham knew was real,

00:19:04.260 but they covered up.

00:19:05.740 Boomerang, says Rachel Maddow.

00:19:08.780 Gotcha.

00:19:10.400 So are any of the other major media covering that story?

00:19:16.980 Where's that story on CNN?

00:19:19.760 I didn't see it.

00:19:21.580 Where's that story on Fox News?

00:19:23.320 I don't know.

00:19:25.600 I didn't see it.

00:19:26.920 Did she just make this up?

00:19:29.200 Is this just totally made up?

00:19:31.380 And don't you think there's a little context missing?

00:19:34.720 So she claims that there are emails that Durham and Barr saw but ignored.

00:19:40.040 What is the missing context?

00:19:42.480 They saw it, and they ignored it.

00:19:45.980 The missing context is why did they ignore it?

00:19:48.580 Probably because it was BS or unimportant or some trivial email.

00:19:55.800 Probably.

00:19:57.100 There's nothing here, and Rachel Maddow has decided to turn it into something.

00:20:02.860 Who controls MSNBC? 0.65

00:20:06.780 Depends who you ask.

00:20:08.180 Some would say intelligence agencies.

00:20:11.880 I can't confirm that, but that's a common claim.

00:20:16.060 If you were an intelligence agency, wouldn't you want to create the counter-narrative that,

00:20:20.840 oh, no, it really was Trump who was colluding with Russia after all?

00:20:23.740 This is so heavy-handed.

00:20:27.440 This is like really obvious, heavy-handed manipulation of the public.

00:20:34.120 It's kind of crazy.

00:20:35.960 And here's the thing.

00:20:37.120 It's totally working.

00:20:38.120 No matter how easily you can see the puppet strings and say,

00:20:43.480 hey, hey, this is clearly manipulation and a trick, it still works.

00:20:48.800 Because, again, what the hell are you going to do about it?

00:20:51.240 Take your story to the media?

00:20:53.760 Hey, I see what's going on here.

00:20:55.400 I think I'll call my contacts at CNN and report it.

00:21:00.960 Seriously, what the hell are you going to do about it?

00:21:02.840 As long as the media is going to cover it the way they're covering it,

00:21:06.560 that's sort of the end of it.

00:21:08.520 There's nothing you can do.

00:21:10.660 What are you going to do, call Tim Poole if he recovers from his COVID?

00:21:19.300 I mean, the independents are so small relative to the major media

00:21:24.020 that there's nothing you can do.

00:21:27.560 All right.

00:21:29.900 That story just fascinates the hell out of me,

00:21:31.760 that you can make something like that disappear.

00:21:34.320 So Pfizer announced that they've got a COVID pill,

00:21:36.660 that, at least in the test,

00:21:40.320 they had zero deaths from people who took the COVID pill soon after having symptoms.

00:21:45.340 And reduces deaths 89% or something like that.

00:21:49.840 Now, if you've got a pill, and I imagine this will get approved pretty quickly,

00:21:55.680 that reduces it by 89%,

00:21:57.760 aren't you done?

00:22:00.780 Like, isn't this pill the get-back-to-work pill?

00:22:07.060 Because if you've got the vaccinations themselves,

00:22:11.380 and of course not everyone will take them,

00:22:13.180 but they reduce the risk, you know, by some enormous amount.

00:22:16.180 Then you've got this pill, and that reduces it by an enormous amount.

00:22:20.420 You've got the monoclonal antibodies.

00:22:22.760 We know that works.

00:22:23.600 We know the vitamin D drip works.

00:22:26.780 At least a few other things we know work.

00:22:29.640 So each of these has, like, takes a big percentage out of the total risk.

00:22:33.520 And once the Pfizer pill is here, and one's like it,

00:22:38.220 you know, the, who is it, I forget the other company that has a pill.

00:22:45.080 But I feel like we're done when we have those.

00:22:48.600 Don't you?

00:22:50.500 I mean, I've felt like this before, so maybe this is false optimism.

00:22:53.840 But how much better would it be if you've got these pills that work

00:23:01.340 so long as you take them early?

00:23:03.520 How much better would things be if we had rapid tests that are so cheap

00:23:07.960 you could just do one every day?

00:23:10.960 Suppose you could, for $1, test yourself every day.

00:23:15.600 And, you know, not everybody would spend $365 per person in their household,

00:23:21.020 but a lot of people would, a lot of people would.

00:23:24.320 And you would get at least the super spreaders.

00:23:27.540 But if you were catching it fast and taking the pill fast,

00:23:30.600 I feel like we're done, right?

00:23:33.320 I mean, I don't know when we'll all have availability of these pills.

00:23:37.440 And then the real question is,

00:23:39.520 do you just buy these pills and keep them around?

00:23:42.920 You know, I'm sure they're prescription.

00:23:45.500 But wouldn't it be great if you could just get some and keep them?

00:23:49.060 Because you don't want to have that time lag.

00:23:51.020 Between a dry cough and getting the prescription.

00:23:54.800 Because that could be eight hours, right?

00:23:57.000 By the time you, you know, if you wake up in the middle of the night with a dry cough.

00:24:00.960 It could be hours and hours.

00:24:02.400 So wouldn't you like to test yourself, grab a pill, you're done.

00:24:06.520 You've already treated yourself.

00:24:07.820 Go back to bed.

00:24:09.200 Alone.

00:24:10.040 Quarantine.

00:24:11.340 All right.

00:24:11.700 So apparently there was a claim that the UK version of the drug that got approved

00:24:22.260 was really just ivermectin.

00:24:26.020 Oh, I'm sorry.

00:24:27.940 There was some thought that maybe the Pfizer one or somebody else's.

00:24:31.340 Anyway, the claim is false.

00:24:33.180 And the claim was that one of these companies was just repurposing ivermectin.

00:24:37.360 And here's a little tip for you.

00:24:41.320 You can always assume that fraud is hiding in any complicated environment.

00:24:47.440 A complicated environment would be finance.

00:24:50.040 Definitely fraud there.

00:24:51.920 Science.

00:24:53.420 Definitely fraud there.

00:24:54.460 And we hear about it all the time.

00:24:58.460 It's obvious, right?

00:25:00.140 And so the more confusing it is, the more likely it's fraud.

00:25:04.940 But when you heard, the first time you heard this rumor that one of these big companies

00:25:09.980 was just going to try to slip ivermectin into a different name of a pill,

00:25:15.580 you should have known that wasn't a thing.

00:25:19.340 Because it would be too easy to catch them.

00:25:22.360 Right?

00:25:22.560 But how hard would it be for somebody who knows how to do it

00:25:28.000 to take a look at it and say,

00:25:30.000 this is just ivermectin.

00:25:32.760 You guys have been screwing us.

00:25:34.560 It would be so easy to find it out.

00:25:37.160 It would be ridiculous for them to try that.

00:25:42.460 Zunar says, wrong.

00:25:43.540 What are you going to do?

00:25:44.980 Well, what you're going to do is start taking ivermectin.

00:25:49.540 That's what you're going to do.

00:25:50.720 If, and again, the rumor is false, so there's no persuasive evidence that ivermectin works,

00:25:58.700 as far as I know.

00:26:00.120 But I also wouldn't know.

00:26:05.600 All right.

00:26:06.480 Good comment, though, Zunar.

00:26:08.040 So, I would just say that the only reason anybody would believe this ivermectin rumor,

00:26:13.900 that it's really the drug that's in these other pills, rebranded,

00:26:17.780 is because we'll believe anything now.

00:26:20.280 Like, nothing seems off the table, does it?

00:26:22.520 When you hear this story about the Steele dossier, the real way it was created,

00:26:27.020 doesn't it almost feel to you as if there's just nothing that's off the table anymore?

00:26:33.940 Just anything's possible.

00:26:35.760 Am I right?

00:26:36.880 So, you can make up any rumor, and somebody's going to believe it,

00:26:40.500 because people will say, well, that's not any worse than the five things I heard on the news

00:26:44.680 that might be true.

00:26:45.680 Yeah, we've lost all trust.

00:26:49.380 That is true.

00:26:54.460 How would you like me to fix the supply chain problem?

00:27:00.080 You ready?

00:27:01.760 Now, remember, I'm never totally serious when I say stuff like that.

00:27:05.780 But I think it's fun to talk about it.

00:27:08.580 I'll give you a little background.

00:27:10.540 I tweeted and talked to you the other day,

00:27:12.840 and I said that one of the secrets of persuasion

00:27:15.620 is that whoever makes the best visual graph

00:27:18.480 of whatever the problem or solution is,

00:27:21.520 whoever does the best job of the visualization part

00:27:24.380 ends up being in charge.

00:27:26.280 Because the visualization tells people what to do for the first time.

00:27:30.520 Because if it's a complicated situation,

00:27:32.980 people can't read through it and decide what they want to do.

00:27:35.420 But if you give them a nice, clean chart or pie chart or visualization,

00:27:41.300 and it's accurate,

00:27:42.840 people suddenly will line up behind it and say,

00:27:45.280 oh, okay, now we know what to do,

00:27:46.800 we know what the problem is, etc.

00:27:48.540 So the power of being good at creating visualizations

00:27:52.900 is way underrated.

00:27:54.680 Because I used to do that for my corporate jobs.

00:27:58.400 And I discovered that basically I was running the department

00:28:02.300 because I could make the visualization compelling or not

00:28:05.940 for whatever I wanted.

00:28:07.440 And it felt like the chart-making person was running stuff.

00:28:10.360 It certainly felt like that when I was making the charts

00:28:12.880 because I could make them good or bad if I wanted.

00:28:16.800 So hearing my explanation of the power of charts,

00:28:22.000 Ryan Peterson, CEO of Flexport,

00:28:25.220 who you already know because he did a terrific thread

00:28:27.800 in which he went to actually visited the ports.

00:28:30.320 He works in this industry,

00:28:33.380 so he knows what questions to ask

00:28:35.420 and where to look for problems.

00:28:37.860 And he came up with a pretty good analysis,

00:28:40.180 a very good analysis, actually.

00:28:41.560 So good that the governor of California

00:28:43.480 called him to see what was going on,

00:28:45.500 see if he could help.

00:28:47.120 So it was that good.

00:28:48.080 And then he followed up with building a presentation

00:28:52.840 that's really good.

00:28:54.620 Really good.

00:28:55.400 So you can see it on my Twitter feed

00:28:56.840 or just look for Ryan Peterson.

00:29:00.180 The sen part on the end is S-E-N, Peterson,

00:29:03.960 CEO of Flexport.

00:29:05.460 And you can see his stuff there, and I recommend it.

00:29:08.180 Because I think it's really fun, actually, weirdly,

00:29:11.540 because I'm a total nerd about business models.

00:29:14.880 Does anybody else have that?

00:29:15.840 Yeah, I went to business school,

00:29:18.400 and so I just got hooked on business models.

00:29:21.680 Like, what is it that makes some company

00:29:23.560 have a process that makes money

00:29:25.300 that's different than some others?

00:29:26.980 Yeah, I see some other people saying the same thing.

00:29:30.600 That business models are just endlessly fascinating to me.

00:29:35.200 So anyway, seeing this flowchart of what the problem is,

00:29:38.900 and let me quickly summarize the problem.

00:29:42.840 You think the problem was truck drivers, right?

00:29:45.840 How many of you have been told

00:29:47.980 the problem is not enough truck drivers?

00:29:52.400 Well, that is a problem-ish,

00:29:55.480 but it's not the immediate problem.

00:29:57.560 It's not the reason stuff is backed up.

00:30:00.040 Because there are drivers sitting in trucks

00:30:02.120 with an empty container on the back,

00:30:06.180 and they don't have any place to put the empty.

00:30:07.900 So you have drivers all over the place

00:30:11.400 with just an empty on the back and no place to put it.

00:30:14.460 So they can't pick up a new one,

00:30:16.140 so they can't do any work,

00:30:18.120 because they can't get rid of the one that's on the back.

00:30:20.440 Now, why can't they get rid of the one on the back?

00:30:22.280 Well, the ports got slammed with the pandemic traffic,

00:30:26.440 because people bought more goods than they consumed services.

00:30:30.800 So people's spending patterns radically changed,

00:30:33.600 and they started buying stuff because they were stuck at home

00:30:36.540 instead of going on a vacation and buying gas and stuff.

00:30:41.300 So that momentary shock to the system

00:30:44.380 caused a buildup that rippled.

00:30:46.240 And the ripple was that they didn't have a place

00:30:50.240 to put the empty containers,

00:30:52.100 and then that slows everything down because they're in the way.

00:30:55.460 Now, part of the solution was getting approval

00:30:57.960 to stack some of the containers

00:30:59.580 in places that they couldn't stack them

00:31:01.800 or in ways that they couldn't stack them before.

00:31:04.520 And I think that Ryan Peterson was instrumental

00:31:08.500 in getting that happening quickly.

00:31:10.860 So it made a little bit of a difference.

00:31:12.460 It's not the solution.

00:31:13.480 But the big problem is that you need a special kind of chassis.

00:31:20.100 In other words, the part that's behind the big rig truck.

00:31:23.900 It has to be a special kind for an empty

00:31:26.440 or any kind of container to be carried on it.

00:31:30.120 And there aren't enough of those to carry the new traffic

00:31:34.240 because they're all used up with an empty on it.

00:31:36.900 They can't go anywhere.

00:31:38.180 Now, you say to yourself,

00:31:39.640 Scott, this is the easiest problem in the world to solve.

00:31:42.240 Just take all those trucks with the empties. 0.85

00:31:45.320 The government just say,

00:31:46.480 OK, temporarily, here's a farmer's field.

00:31:49.560 It's an emergency.

00:31:50.780 Farmer says it's OK.

00:31:52.140 We'll give them some money.

00:31:53.440 Just drive to this empty field

00:31:54.980 and just put all your empty containers there, right?

00:31:59.060 How do you get them off the truck?

00:32:01.940 How do you get the container off the truck?

00:32:03.840 You need that crane that's back at the port.

00:32:10.140 You can't get them off the truck except at the port.

00:32:14.020 And do you know why you can't get them off the truck at the port?

00:32:16.820 Because it's already filled with empty containers.

00:32:20.260 So the cranes and the trucks can't get near each other.

00:32:24.040 Even the cranes are not being used

00:32:25.520 because there's nothing but trucks with empties

00:32:28.460 and empties all over the place.

00:32:30.820 And that's your problem.

00:32:32.580 Oh, you're ahead of me.

00:32:34.420 So here's my question.

00:32:36.600 All right.

00:32:37.540 Suppose you took the best engineers in the world

00:32:39.880 and you put them in the metaverse

00:32:42.380 so they could have a meeting

00:32:43.580 in Zuckerberg's virtual world.

00:32:48.060 So it feels like they're there.

00:32:49.120 And you take your Elon Musk's.

00:32:51.520 I like to use him for every example.

00:32:53.280 He just fits every example, it seems like.

00:32:54.760 You take your Elon Musk,

00:32:56.580 you take your best engineers from a few different places

00:32:59.980 and you just put them in one place.

00:33:01.840 You say, here's the problem.

00:33:04.220 The normal way that empties are taken off

00:33:06.960 is with the same crane, I think.

00:33:09.540 Fact check me on this.

00:33:10.820 The same crane that they use at the ports

00:33:12.540 to do everything else that the cranes do.

00:33:15.680 So the cranes as they're built

00:33:17.320 are sort of multi-purpose for the ports.

00:33:21.800 But suppose you wanted to very quickly develop

00:33:26.420 an engineering solution

00:33:28.160 that would simply take an empty off.

00:33:31.760 The first thing, the first advantage

00:33:33.660 is that you're only dealing with empties.

00:33:35.620 So if you were to build a crane

00:33:37.720 or a forklift type device,

00:33:40.640 whatever it would take,

00:33:41.940 you wouldn't have to make it very strong

00:33:44.700 compared to the ones at the port.

00:33:46.740 Because the port has to take full containers

00:33:49.540 as well as empties.

00:33:51.400 So that has to be way, way, way stronger.

00:33:54.020 But if you're only dealing with the empties

00:33:55.780 and it's an emergency,

00:33:57.320 you just want to get empties off chassis,

00:33:59.480 could you modify a forklift?

00:34:03.440 Could you build one of those magnet things

00:34:06.760 that just picks it off

00:34:07.860 as long as you've, I don't know,

00:34:09.560 disconnected it somehow from the chassis?

00:34:11.880 Could you do it with a giant magnet?

00:34:13.560 How long would it take a Caterpillar, for example,

00:34:17.740 to modify anything that they have existing

00:34:20.560 that can very quickly just grab empties

00:34:23.400 and toss them off?

00:34:26.940 Right?

00:34:27.720 So suppose you did a, you know,

00:34:29.540 it's an overused concept,

00:34:31.340 but basically a Manhattan project

00:34:33.380 to find a temporary engineering solution

00:34:36.920 for removing empties from chassis

00:34:39.680 not at the port.

00:34:41.200 So, you know, is there such a thing?

00:34:45.800 Is there anybody who knows,

00:34:47.020 is there such a thing as like

00:34:48.320 just a badass forklift

00:34:51.120 that's big enough to take

00:34:52.780 an entire empty container off a truck?

00:34:55.000 Is there such a thing?

00:34:56.820 And could you modify

00:34:57.880 some other piece of equipment

00:35:00.220 or equipments that could do that?

00:35:03.680 Oh, there it is.

00:35:04.900 Somebody gave me the actual picture

00:35:07.540 of a forklift

00:35:08.480 that's meant for exactly that.

00:35:10.420 So how hard would it be

00:35:12.360 to get a few forklifts

00:35:13.440 in some big farmer fields?

00:35:16.480 So I'm saying, yes,

00:35:17.700 they already exist.

00:35:19.600 So you don't really need

00:35:21.820 to move the crane anywhere, do you?

00:35:24.960 Maybe just these forklifts?

00:35:28.040 Yeah.

00:35:28.820 So I guess there's more questions, right?

00:35:31.700 Remember I told you

00:35:32.820 every time you think

00:35:33.840 you can do your own research,

00:35:35.720 you just find out

00:35:36.880 that that's not something you can do?

00:35:38.320 So here's a perfect example.

00:35:41.120 So here I am trying

00:35:41.960 to do my own research.

00:35:44.280 But, you know,

00:35:44.840 it's not my full-time job,

00:35:46.080 just like it isn't

00:35:46.960 most people's full-time job

00:35:48.260 to research anything.

00:35:50.040 And I don't know

00:35:51.500 what's going on still.

00:35:53.800 Because if there exist,

00:35:56.720 and I can see that they do exist,

00:35:58.840 these giant forklifts,

00:36:00.860 probably they're all being used

00:36:02.900 at the ports themselves.

00:36:04.820 But it seems like maybe

00:36:06.720 for a day or two

00:36:07.640 you could at least get

00:36:08.420 a few of them

00:36:09.000 and just outsource them

00:36:11.020 to the farmer's field

00:36:12.020 or wherever.

00:36:15.760 Yeah, redesign the trucks

00:36:17.100 to be self-emptying.

00:36:18.420 So I just tweeted,

00:36:19.500 there is such a device.

00:36:20.960 So there are trucks

00:36:21.880 that are self-unloading.

00:36:24.100 So it looks like they've got

00:36:25.240 some kind of a roller thing.

00:36:27.320 So they just dip it down

00:36:28.480 and let the...

00:36:29.460 and then they drive away slowly

00:36:30.940 and the container just...

00:36:34.180 But I don't think

00:36:35.440 they make those

00:36:36.060 for too many chassis.

00:36:41.440 Forklifts can't run

00:36:42.460 on soft ground.

00:36:43.520 Good point.

00:36:45.080 Good point.

00:36:45.760 So you need some kind

00:36:46.760 of paved situation.

00:36:49.240 That's a really good point.

00:36:51.980 But they could...

00:36:52.920 If it's packed down,

00:36:53.820 they could...

00:36:54.440 If it's packed down dirt,

00:36:55.620 they could probably...

00:36:56.580 Maybe not.

00:36:58.020 Too heavy.

00:36:59.920 All right.

00:37:00.940 Did you hear about

00:37:04.560 Travis Scott?

00:37:06.360 He has this festival

00:37:07.540 called the Astroworld

00:37:08.860 in Houston.

00:37:10.640 And apparently

00:37:11.140 the crowd surged.

00:37:14.580 It's not clear why.

00:37:15.740 And eight people died

00:37:16.800 and hundreds were injured

00:37:18.040 and stuff.

00:37:19.560 And...

00:37:21.420 Is it my imagination

00:37:23.120 or is the fourth leading

00:37:24.920 cause of death

00:37:25.800 in this country

00:37:26.440 being killed

00:37:27.640 by celebrities?

00:37:28.280 So you've got

00:37:30.740 your Alec Baldwin

00:37:31.680 slaying one person

00:37:33.880 this week.

00:37:34.380 You've got your

00:37:34.820 NFL players

00:37:35.840 killing people

00:37:36.940 with their automobiles.

00:37:38.980 You've got

00:37:39.680 Travis Scott

00:37:40.480 gives a concert

00:37:41.520 and kills eight people.

00:37:44.840 Then you've got

00:37:45.600 all your celebrities

00:37:46.300 who are so thin

00:37:48.180 that it's causing

00:37:49.440 a generation of kids

00:37:50.660 to have body image

00:37:51.540 problems

00:37:52.400 and die of 0.91

00:37:53.580 eating disorders

00:37:54.600 and suicide.

00:37:55.260 And here's a question

00:37:58.700 I ask you.

00:38:00.420 So there are

00:38:01.300 several examples

00:38:02.580 of celebrities

00:38:03.340 who have killed people

00:38:04.160 just this week.

00:38:05.900 There are three examples

00:38:07.060 of celebrities

00:38:07.860 killing people

00:38:08.580 within the week.

00:38:10.720 Or two weeks,

00:38:11.460 I guess.

00:38:12.640 Now,

00:38:14.000 think about

00:38:14.640 your profession.

00:38:16.400 So those of you

00:38:17.280 who are working,

00:38:19.620 think about your job.

00:38:21.100 How many people

00:38:21.900 in your job

00:38:22.780 killed anybody

00:38:23.520 in the last two weeks?

00:38:25.680 Let's say you're

00:38:26.220 an accountant.

00:38:28.000 Let's say you

00:38:28.620 scoop ice cream

00:38:29.540 at the Baskin Robbins.

00:38:32.220 How many ice cream

00:38:33.440 scoopers killed

00:38:34.260 anybody in the last

00:38:35.140 two weeks?

00:38:36.740 Very low number.

00:38:38.620 Very low number.

00:38:40.180 But how many

00:38:40.640 celebrities

00:38:41.540 killed people?

00:38:43.040 A lot.

00:38:44.460 A lot.

00:38:45.780 Right?

00:38:48.120 And it's funny.

00:38:49.200 It's,

00:38:49.600 well, it's not funny.

00:38:50.560 It's tragic,

00:38:51.220 of course.

00:38:51.560 But it's gotten

00:38:52.720 to the point

00:38:53.180 where it might

00:38:54.740 be the fourth

00:38:55.380 leading cause

00:38:56.160 for anybody

00:38:56.840 over under 30.

00:38:59.260 You know,

00:38:59.500 just stay away

00:39:00.060 from any

00:39:00.540 celebrity-related

00:39:02.020 thing.

00:39:02.840 Now,

00:39:03.040 I'm not even,

00:39:04.220 just think about

00:39:04.900 how much you

00:39:05.380 could pump up

00:39:05.920 the number

00:39:06.420 killed by celebrities.

00:39:08.660 Think of all

00:39:09.260 the things

00:39:09.660 that celebrities

00:39:10.240 have promoted

00:39:12.120 in public

00:39:13.040 that you should

00:39:13.720 do or not do

00:39:14.520 that probably

00:39:15.020 killed people.

00:39:16.620 Probably,

00:39:17.440 probably a few,

00:39:18.820 right?

00:39:19.160 Depending on

00:39:21.580 your political

00:39:22.560 leanings,

00:39:23.580 if you're

00:39:24.860 of the camp

00:39:25.740 that says

00:39:26.300 abortion is 0.64

00:39:27.040 murder,

00:39:28.040 then you've

00:39:28.400 got the

00:39:28.680 celebrities

00:39:29.160 supporting

00:39:30.080 abortion.

00:39:31.820 So,

00:39:32.260 depending on

00:39:32.760 your point

00:39:33.100 of view,

00:39:33.440 you'd say,

00:39:33.820 well,

00:39:34.020 let's chalk

00:39:35.040 up some

00:39:35.380 more to

00:39:35.720 the celebrities.

00:39:37.000 I don't know,

00:39:37.320 celebrities seem

00:39:37.940 very,

00:39:38.340 very dangerous

00:39:38.940 is what I'm

00:39:39.460 saying.

00:39:41.280 That's what

00:39:41.820 I'm saying.

00:39:44.400 All right.

00:39:46.040 Pretty sure

00:39:46.740 that's all I

00:39:47.300 wanted to talk

00:39:47.820 about today.

00:39:48.380 Oh,

00:39:50.480 no.

00:39:53.060 I would

00:39:53.660 like to

00:39:53.960 remind you,

00:39:54.800 at the

00:39:55.380 beginning of

00:39:55.740 the pandemic,

00:39:57.120 one of my

00:39:58.180 predictions was

00:39:58.980 that you

00:40:00.240 can't tell

00:40:00.880 how any

00:40:01.380 country would

00:40:02.100 do in

00:40:03.660 the first

00:40:04.140 few innings.

00:40:05.940 Anybody

00:40:06.300 remember me

00:40:06.960 saying that?

00:40:07.440 Just so we

00:40:08.160 can verify

00:40:08.620 that I said

00:40:09.140 that right

00:40:09.980 from the

00:40:10.320 beginning.

00:40:11.640 I said you

00:40:12.160 won't be able

00:40:12.840 to tell what

00:40:13.480 countries are

00:40:14.080 making the

00:40:14.440 right decisions

00:40:15.100 and that

00:40:15.900 leadership won't

00:40:16.780 even be a

00:40:17.360 variable you

00:40:17.960 can isolate.

00:40:20.020 Everybody

00:40:20.420 thought that

00:40:21.100 you could do

00:40:22.000 that.

00:40:22.340 I think I'm

00:40:22.900 the only person

00:40:23.540 who said from

00:40:24.080 the start,

00:40:25.440 you'll never

00:40:25.980 be able to

00:40:26.400 do it.

00:40:27.420 So what's the

00:40:27.940 news today?

00:40:28.640 Well, it's the

00:40:29.220 opposite of what

00:40:29.980 it used to be,

00:40:30.740 and yet leadership

00:40:31.440 hasn't changed.

00:40:32.900 So there's probably

00:40:33.700 not that much

00:40:34.300 difference in

00:40:34.920 leadership in

00:40:35.680 Europe versus

00:40:36.600 the United States,

00:40:37.440 but suddenly Europe's

00:40:39.100 having problems

00:40:40.100 that we're not

00:40:40.620 having.

00:40:41.920 So Europe's now

00:40:42.660 the epicenter

00:40:43.340 of the pandemic

00:40:44.020 as of today.

00:40:46.020 Germany reported

00:40:46.860 its highest

00:40:47.460 number of new

00:40:48.500 coronavirus infections

00:40:49.720 in one day

00:40:50.320 since the

00:40:50.780 pandemic began.

00:40:54.080 And new cases

00:40:55.060 across Europe

00:40:56.080 have risen,

00:40:56.800 56% and

00:40:57.800 everything.

00:40:58.480 Now, I'm not

00:40:59.260 going to tell you

00:40:59.780 that the United

00:41:00.300 States did better

00:41:01.100 than Europe.

00:41:03.180 What I will tell

00:41:04.100 you is we don't

00:41:04.760 know why

00:41:06.480 anything is

00:41:07.100 working.

00:41:08.220 We still

00:41:08.840 don't.

00:41:09.260 even the

00:41:11.240 most basic

00:41:11.780 thing, which

00:41:12.560 is, well,

00:41:13.140 the most

00:41:13.480 vaccinated

00:41:14.020 country should

00:41:14.820 be in the

00:41:15.180 best shape.

00:41:16.720 That doesn't

00:41:17.480 even seem to

00:41:18.040 hold at this

00:41:19.460 point.

00:41:20.120 But the one

00:41:20.780 thing I'm pretty

00:41:21.480 sure is true is

00:41:22.460 that there

00:41:23.360 wasn't enough

00:41:24.060 of difference

00:41:24.620 in leadership

00:41:25.240 changing in

00:41:27.280 the United

00:41:27.660 States, really

00:41:28.600 in terms of

00:41:29.020 the pandemic.

00:41:29.800 Even Biden

00:41:30.280 isn't that much

00:41:31.080 different than

00:41:31.600 Trump would

00:41:32.180 have been.

00:41:33.320 I don't think

00:41:34.100 Europe changed

00:41:34.700 that much,

00:41:35.580 leadership-wise.

00:41:36.900 So leadership

00:41:37.380 just doesn't

00:41:38.100 predict.

00:41:39.260 Is there

00:41:39.640 anybody who's

00:41:40.120 willing to

00:41:40.540 agree with

00:41:41.080 me at this

00:41:42.020 point that

00:41:43.820 leadership did

00:41:45.860 not predict

00:41:46.740 outcomes?

00:41:48.240 Anybody?

00:41:48.960 Is anybody

00:41:49.340 willing to

00:41:49.820 agree with

00:41:50.240 me that

00:41:50.560 leadership did

00:41:51.340 not predict

00:41:52.040 outcomes?

00:41:54.180 I got some

00:41:54.780 agreement.

00:41:55.480 Okay.

00:41:57.340 Nope.

00:41:58.900 All right.

00:41:59.640 So we got

00:42:00.060 some agreement

00:42:00.840 there.

00:42:01.620 That's all I

00:42:02.220 can ask for.

00:42:04.080 All right.

00:42:05.000 Here's a

00:42:05.660 little thing

00:42:07.620 from,

00:42:08.060 Twitter.

00:42:10.380 You know,

00:42:10.600 Twitter does

00:42:11.040 this cool

00:42:11.460 thing where

00:42:11.960 if there's

00:42:12.280 a big story

00:42:12.860 and lots

00:42:13.680 of tweeting

00:42:14.040 on it,

00:42:14.520 they'll put

00:42:15.220 their own

00:42:15.560 editorial summary

00:42:17.040 of what's

00:42:18.460 going on with

00:42:19.040 all the tweeting

00:42:19.540 on that topic.

00:42:20.800 And I always

00:42:21.500 like that because

00:42:22.060 it's a real

00:42:22.460 good, fast way

00:42:23.340 to learn what's

00:42:23.880 going on.

00:42:24.800 So I like the

00:42:25.660 feature a lot.

00:42:27.060 But here's one

00:42:27.840 way that they

00:42:28.580 describe something.

00:42:29.480 And you tell

00:42:31.000 me if this

00:42:33.400 is biased

00:42:33.980 or not,

00:42:34.440 right?

00:42:34.940 I'll just

00:42:35.340 read the

00:42:36.120 summary.

00:42:36.580 It's a bullet

00:42:36.960 point, one

00:42:38.360 of three

00:42:38.640 bullets under

00:42:39.840 what you need

00:42:40.460 to know that

00:42:41.340 I assume

00:42:41.840 Twitter editorial

00:42:42.900 wrote.

00:42:44.440 And I quote,

00:42:45.420 public health

00:42:46.040 officials warn

00:42:47.420 against taking

00:42:48.580 ivermectin, a

00:42:50.000 drug often

00:42:50.720 prescribed for

00:42:51.660 animals that

00:42:52.900 can be dangerous

00:42:53.660 for people to

00:42:54.980 treat COVID-19.

00:42:55.960 Now, does

00:43:01.600 that sound a

00:43:04.020 little bit

00:43:04.360 biased?

00:43:05.460 Do you think

00:43:06.240 there was a

00:43:06.680 better way to

00:43:07.240 phrase this so

00:43:08.180 you didn't suggest

00:43:09.460 that people taking

00:43:10.380 it were taking

00:43:10.960 horse medicine?

00:43:12.420 Which of course

00:43:13.100 is horse shit.

00:43:15.720 This is like

00:43:17.320 just mind

00:43:19.160 boggling that

00:43:20.740 somebody could

00:43:21.300 write this

00:43:21.760 sentence.

00:43:22.620 Here would be

00:43:23.380 an honest

00:43:24.080 version of

00:43:25.840 this.

00:43:27.040 Public health

00:43:27.780 officials warn

00:43:28.460 against taking

00:43:29.140 ivermectin,

00:43:30.740 especially the

00:43:32.040 animal version

00:43:33.140 of it, because

00:43:34.560 it hasn't shown

00:43:36.040 to be effective

00:43:37.380 according to

00:43:38.580 them.

00:43:38.940 This is not me

00:43:39.540 talking.

00:43:40.860 And the animal

00:43:42.000 version especially

00:43:42.860 could be dangerous

00:43:43.560 to humans.

00:43:45.540 Now, it takes a

00:43:46.340 little bit longer,

00:43:48.260 but at least it's

00:43:49.480 clear, right?

00:43:51.580 I would like to

00:43:52.540 know that there's

00:43:53.100 an animal and

00:43:53.660 human version,

00:43:54.420 and I would like

00:43:54.900 to know that if

00:43:55.600 you took the

00:43:56.080 animal version,

00:43:56.900 you might have

00:43:57.300 some problems,

00:43:58.280 but if you took

00:43:58.800 the human version,

00:43:59.700 not so much.

00:44:01.900 That's the story,

00:44:03.060 right?

00:44:05.360 Shecky is still

00:44:06.160 saying ivermectin

00:44:07.080 saved lives all

00:44:08.200 over Africa.

00:44:08.800 I don't think so.

00:44:11.180 I don't think so.

00:44:14.360 And I know you've

00:44:15.400 seen the information

00:44:16.240 that would suggest

00:44:16.840 that.

00:44:17.760 I don't think that's

00:44:18.760 going to stand up.

00:44:19.440 I would make a very

00:44:20.760 large bet that

00:44:22.640 ivermectin is not

00:44:23.860 saving Africa.

00:44:26.060 I mean, I don't

00:44:26.720 know what's going

00:44:27.500 on there, but,

00:44:29.260 and I'd like to

00:44:31.480 say also whenever I

00:44:32.460 make a statement

00:44:33.420 like that, I can

00:44:35.020 never be 100%

00:44:35.920 sure.

00:44:37.500 Can you accept

00:44:38.340 that even when I

00:44:39.980 talk with confidence,

00:44:41.700 you can't really be

00:44:42.340 100% sure of

00:44:43.240 anything.

00:44:43.780 We don't live in a

00:44:44.500 world where anybody

00:44:45.220 can do that.

00:44:45.800 Not me, not you,

00:44:46.800 not anybody.

00:44:47.960 So when I say

00:44:48.640 things that sound

00:44:49.340 like absolutes,

00:44:50.200 just in your mind,

00:44:51.680 translate that into

00:44:52.600 not quite an absolute.

00:44:54.860 All right.

00:45:00.120 And now, I believe

00:45:02.240 I've done my tiny bit

00:45:03.980 of duty to help

00:45:05.200 the supply chain,

00:45:06.340 because I feel like

00:45:07.860 the supply chain

00:45:08.500 problem is one of

00:45:09.300 those things where

00:45:10.000 there are enough

00:45:10.640 brains and resources

00:45:12.720 in existence, but

00:45:14.580 hasn't quite

00:45:15.340 hasn't quite

00:45:17.420 been focused

00:45:19.260 in the right

00:45:19.700 places at the

00:45:20.340 right time by

00:45:21.020 the right people.

00:45:22.440 And Ryan Peterson,

00:45:23.480 I would say, is the

00:45:24.020 most productive

00:45:24.720 person on this.

00:45:26.220 And if I could

00:45:27.080 give him a boost

00:45:27.900 to boost his

00:45:29.420 signal, then I

00:45:31.200 think that

00:45:31.680 collectively we've

00:45:33.020 done something

00:45:33.520 good.

00:45:34.660 Because, you know,

00:45:35.940 it goes without

00:45:36.460 saying, but I'll

00:45:37.480 say it anyway.

00:45:40.020 You know, people

00:45:40.840 always say, after

00:45:41.920 they say it goes

00:45:42.600 without saying,

00:45:43.140 they always say

00:45:43.560 it anyway.

00:45:45.340 That my ability

00:45:48.320 to boost Ryan

00:45:50.360 Peterson's signal,

00:45:51.540 which I think has

00:45:52.340 been productive,

00:45:53.660 and it may have

00:45:54.460 been part of what

00:45:55.120 got the governor

00:45:55.760 to call him, we

00:45:56.620 don't know for

00:45:57.120 sure.

00:45:58.180 But you can only

00:45:59.800 do that because

00:46:00.640 there are a lot of

00:46:01.900 people paying

00:46:02.620 attention.

00:46:03.620 So that is all

00:46:04.460 your power.

00:46:06.640 If I helped you

00:46:08.020 focus it in a

00:46:09.740 productive way,

00:46:10.320 that would be

00:46:10.660 great.

00:46:12.400 Oh, yeah,

00:46:12.880 infrastructure bill

00:46:13.740 got passed.

00:46:15.620 So boring.

00:46:17.660 So that's the

00:46:18.780 part that a lot

00:46:19.700 of people agreed

00:46:20.340 on, just the

00:46:21.020 pure infrastructure,

00:46:22.060 the real

00:46:22.380 infrastructure part.

00:46:24.200 And how would

00:46:25.720 you know if

00:46:26.120 that's a good

00:46:26.520 idea?

00:46:26.800 Yeah.

00:46:28.900 How would any

00:46:29.640 of you know if

00:46:31.200 the infrastructure

00:46:31.980 bill, and by the

00:46:32.680 way, they've

00:46:33.760 separated out the

00:46:34.780 social programs,

00:46:35.800 and now that's

00:46:36.340 going to be part

00:46:37.540 of the build back

00:46:38.300 better separate

00:46:39.420 bill.

00:46:39.900 But the one

00:46:41.180 that really was

00:46:41.860 infrastructure,

00:46:43.060 which would have

00:46:43.960 taken three years

00:46:45.180 to get an

00:46:45.540 infrastructure bill,

00:46:46.640 so you can't be

00:46:47.600 too happy about

00:46:48.200 that.

00:46:48.840 But how would

00:46:49.360 you know it's

00:46:49.780 not all just

00:46:50.340 pork and

00:46:50.840 bullshit?

00:46:52.400 How do you

00:46:52.880 know it's in

00:46:53.340 that thing? 0.97

00:46:54.280 I don't.

00:46:55.600 I don't know

00:46:56.080 what's in it.

00:46:56.580 I mean, I like

00:46:57.100 the idea of

00:46:57.980 infrastructure.

00:47:00.480 Now, here's

00:47:01.060 another question.

00:47:02.780 We started this

00:47:03.840 infrastructure bill

00:47:04.700 thing in 2018

00:47:05.480 when the economy

00:47:06.360 was a very

00:47:07.020 different economy.

00:47:07.840 It was pre-pandemic,

00:47:10.120 you know, pre-massive

00:47:11.540 run-up of the

00:47:12.160 debt, at least as

00:47:13.820 much as it did

00:47:14.420 run-up.

00:47:15.480 And here's my

00:47:16.660 question, and I

00:47:17.760 don't know the

00:47:18.200 answer to it, so

00:47:18.780 it's not a fake

00:47:21.700 question.

00:47:22.080 It's a real

00:47:22.420 question.

00:47:23.660 Should we be

00:47:24.500 stimulating the

00:47:25.380 economy right now?

00:47:27.600 Is there anybody

00:47:28.140 here who is good

00:47:29.160 enough in

00:47:29.560 economics?

00:47:29.940 I mean, I have a

00:47:30.420 degree in economics,

00:47:31.340 and I don't know the

00:47:31.860 answer to this

00:47:32.320 question.

00:47:33.260 Is this the right

00:47:33.940 time to be

00:47:34.460 stimulating the

00:47:35.240 economy?

00:47:36.480 Because it feels

00:47:37.200 like the wrong

00:47:37.780 time, doesn't it?

00:47:39.260 Because, you know,

00:47:40.180 our jobs are

00:47:41.280 coming back

00:47:41.820 strongly.

00:47:43.380 We're ordering

00:47:44.280 more things than

00:47:45.160 our capacity to

00:47:48.000 deliver.

00:47:49.820 And inflation is

00:47:51.020 high.

00:47:53.340 Now, I don't

00:47:54.000 know what the

00:47:54.540 supply chain is

00:47:55.380 going to do to

00:47:55.900 inflation, should

00:47:57.000 drive it up,

00:47:58.300 blah, blah, blah.

00:48:00.160 But is anybody

00:48:02.120 reporting that the

00:48:04.100 infrastructure bill

00:48:05.420 might be a huge

00:48:06.200 disaster?

00:48:06.820 because only

00:48:07.620 because of its

00:48:08.200 timing, not

00:48:09.020 because it's a

00:48:09.660 good or bad

00:48:10.120 idea in and

00:48:11.440 of itself?

00:48:12.040 Is anybody

00:48:12.380 writing that?

00:48:14.460 Is that a story

00:48:15.400 even?

00:48:15.880 Or are all the

00:48:16.720 smart people

00:48:17.220 saying, ah,

00:48:17.580 don't worry

00:48:17.880 about that?

00:48:19.440 Because you

00:48:19.800 need, I mean,

00:48:20.780 we need the

00:48:21.360 infrastructure, right?

00:48:22.380 So it might be

00:48:23.320 that we don't

00:48:24.220 have a choice.

00:48:25.620 You just got to,

00:48:26.500 you have to have

00:48:27.100 good roads, you

00:48:27.820 need more

00:48:28.840 broadband.

00:48:29.520 You just need

00:48:29.960 this stuff.

00:48:35.820 Yeah, I don't

00:48:36.460 know how much

00:48:36.900 of it is junk

00:48:37.640 and pork and

00:48:38.360 stuff like that.

00:48:40.640 Get rid of the

00:48:41.380 vaccine mandates.

00:48:42.480 Well, I would

00:48:43.580 say that the, if

00:48:46.220 these Pfizer and

00:48:47.460 the other pill, if

00:48:49.120 they get approved

00:48:49.880 and they really

00:48:50.800 stop it in its

00:48:52.120 tracks and you

00:48:52.800 can really do

00:48:53.580 rapid testing, I

00:48:56.920 feel like we've

00:48:58.760 got to open up

00:48:59.420 at that point.

00:49:00.860 You know, I've

00:49:01.440 told you before,

00:49:02.900 somebody says,

00:49:05.260 I work for the

00:49:05.860 CIA, all right?

00:49:07.960 Did they assign

00:49:09.080 you to watch me

00:49:09.720 today?

00:49:13.560 You know, a

00:49:15.120 while back I

00:49:15.860 learned how

00:49:17.420 intelligence

00:49:17.940 agencies approach

00:49:21.100 citizens and try

00:49:22.360 to influence

00:49:23.480 them.

00:49:24.740 And once you

00:49:26.240 know how they

00:49:26.700 do it, you

00:49:27.280 can spot it

00:49:27.900 pretty easily.

00:49:30.080 And I've got

00:49:31.240 one now that's

00:49:33.240 trying to

00:49:34.220 approach me.

00:49:40.300 And I would

00:49:40.900 say they act

00:49:42.080 very different

00:49:42.780 from normal

00:49:43.460 people.

00:49:44.880 I'm not going

00:49:45.520 to tell you

00:49:45.800 what they do.

00:49:46.740 I don't want

00:49:47.180 to tell you

00:49:47.480 that.

00:49:47.900 But it's easy

00:49:48.900 to spot.

00:49:50.840 I can't tell

00:49:51.620 you.

00:49:53.380 All right.

00:49:53.720 Russia collusion

00:49:59.120 was an

00:49:59.560 insurrection.

00:50:00.260 I think so.

00:50:01.300 And that

00:50:01.500 would also

00:50:01.860 explain, oh,

00:50:02.640 here's some

00:50:02.960 more.

00:50:03.600 Over on

00:50:04.100 Locals, people

00:50:04.720 are posting

00:50:05.220 all kinds of

00:50:05.780 pictures of

00:50:06.380 large devices

00:50:08.060 that move 0.94

00:50:08.540 containers.

00:50:10.040 And so there

00:50:10.980 are portable

00:50:11.520 ones.

00:50:11.940 They don't

00:50:12.160 have to be

00:50:12.640 cranes.

00:50:13.040 All right.

00:50:26.120 National Guard

00:50:26.960 has some

00:50:27.560 container movers.

00:50:29.860 Yeah, I

00:50:30.240 imagine they

00:50:30.640 would.

00:50:32.160 All right.

00:50:33.060 That is all I

00:50:34.060 have to talk

00:50:34.480 about today.

00:50:35.960 If my energy

00:50:36.940 was low, that's

00:50:38.720 because of that

00:50:39.140 three hours of

00:50:39.840 sleep.

00:50:41.020 But I hope

00:50:42.840 we made the

00:50:43.740 world a

00:50:44.120 better place.

00:50:45.380 And I hope

00:50:45.960 you're all a

00:50:48.340 little bit more

00:50:49.080 cautious about

00:50:50.120 imagining what

00:50:50.880 you can do

00:50:51.380 with your own

00:50:51.900 research.

00:50:54.080 Because I

00:50:54.740 know I am.

00:50:55.880 If there's

00:50:56.500 one place that

00:50:57.360 you can guarantee

00:50:58.980 I will be

00:50:59.780 humble, because

00:51:01.360 I know some

00:51:01.980 of you have a

00:51:02.460 problem with me

00:51:03.360 being right too

00:51:04.320 much.

00:51:05.240 But where I

00:51:05.860 guarantee you

00:51:06.520 I'll always be

00:51:07.140 humble is that

00:51:08.420 I can't do my

00:51:09.160 own research on

00:51:10.140 any of this.

00:51:11.540 I mean, I

00:51:11.820 can talk

00:51:12.800 myself into

00:51:13.440 thinking I

00:51:14.000 did it, but

00:51:14.820 I can't.

00:51:16.060 So, I

00:51:17.820 mean, if

00:51:18.120 you're

00:51:18.340 substantially

00:51:18.920 smarter than

00:51:19.640 me in this

00:51:20.940 particular way,

00:51:21.700 maybe you

00:51:22.160 can.

00:51:23.340 But I

00:51:24.100 know I

00:51:24.440 can't.

00:51:25.460 So, unless

00:51:26.700 you're pretty

00:51:27.280 sure you're

00:51:27.940 way smarter

00:51:28.540 than I am

00:51:30.000 about how to

00:51:31.240 analyze stuff,

00:51:32.540 I don't think

00:51:33.640 you can either.

00:51:34.700 Not with

00:51:35.080 confidence,

00:51:35.700 anyway.

00:51:36.300 Not with

00:51:36.680 any confidence.

00:51:37.160 confidence.

00:51:40.360 What kept

00:51:41.020 me awake?

00:51:42.540 I hate

00:51:43.200 sleep.

00:51:44.600 So, when I

00:51:45.180 woke up, I

00:51:45.760 just didn't

00:51:46.140 want to be

00:51:46.500 asleep again,

00:51:47.200 and then it

00:51:47.580 doesn't happen.

00:51:48.820 I feel like

00:51:49.620 sleep is just

00:51:50.480 wasted.

00:51:51.420 Wasted life.

00:51:53.640 But I will

00:51:54.280 tell you, I've

00:51:54.640 been thinking

00:51:55.100 more and more

00:51:55.840 about the

00:51:56.620 state of

00:51:57.200 what a

00:51:58.040 dream is.

00:51:59.740 Have you

00:52:00.000 ever said to

00:52:01.060 yourself, the

00:52:01.920 one way that

00:52:02.540 you know this

00:52:03.120 is not a

00:52:03.980 simulation is

00:52:05.640 that the

00:52:06.100 stuff is

00:52:06.520 solid?

00:52:07.860 Do you

00:52:08.040 ever think

00:52:08.380 that to

00:52:09.220 yourself?

00:52:10.140 Well, I

00:52:10.660 know that

00:52:12.040 whatever this

00:52:12.700 is that I'm

00:52:13.220 experiencing, my

00:52:14.180 reality, I

00:52:15.180 know it

00:52:15.520 can't be just

00:52:16.880 code or

00:52:17.680 program, because

00:52:19.280 they're solids.

00:52:20.840 Right?

00:52:21.140 It doesn't go

00:52:21.760 through it.

00:52:22.840 You know, if

00:52:23.360 I ever made a

00:52:24.220 software or

00:52:25.820 some imaginary

00:52:26.600 thing, none

00:52:27.800 of this could

00:52:28.180 happen, right?

00:52:28.800 It wouldn't

00:52:29.440 be solid.

00:52:30.800 But what

00:52:31.420 about dreams?

00:52:33.220 In your

00:52:33.900 dreams, everything's

00:52:34.760 solid, isn't

00:52:35.300 it?

00:52:35.860 In your

00:52:36.560 dreams, things

00:52:37.340 have weight,

00:52:38.540 don't they?

00:52:39.780 In your

00:52:40.460 dreams, there's

00:52:40.980 still gravity.

00:52:42.960 So apparently, we

00:52:44.800 absolutely, routinely,

00:52:47.160 pretty much most of

00:52:48.180 us every night, have

00:52:49.660 an illusion in

00:52:50.640 which there is full

00:52:51.700 weight and gravity

00:52:53.260 and all the rules

00:52:54.340 of physics.

00:52:55.920 Sometimes you can

00:52:56.800 fly in your

00:52:57.360 dreams.

00:52:58.280 Sometimes.

00:52:59.680 But the

00:53:01.060 question of

00:53:01.600 whether you can

00:53:02.360 imagine solids

00:53:03.660 when there are no

00:53:04.480 solids, it has

00:53:05.420 been answered.

00:53:06.600 Yeah, you can.

00:53:07.360 It's called a

00:53:07.820 dream.

00:53:08.520 That's just one

00:53:09.120 way you can do

00:53:09.600 it.

00:53:11.140 All right.

00:53:12.940 Which is

00:53:13.500 different than

00:53:13.920 virtual reality

00:53:14.700 because when you've

00:53:15.740 got a virtual reality

00:53:16.640 goggles on, you

00:53:18.120 can't actually feel

00:53:19.160 any of the

00:53:19.580 objects.

00:53:20.500 So that's less

00:53:21.960 than a dream.

00:53:22.800 A dream, you have

00:53:23.980 the sensation that

00:53:25.460 objects have

00:53:26.400 weight.

00:53:29.200 Dreams are

00:53:29.880 software updates.

00:53:31.380 could be, or

00:53:33.140 defragmenting.

00:53:34.620 Feels like

00:53:35.300 defragging to

00:53:36.080 me.

00:53:40.960 So Scott

00:53:41.760 doesn't have

00:53:42.240 spirituality, I

00:53:43.460 guess.

00:53:43.820 It's all just a

00:53:44.620 waste.

00:53:44.920 Is it?

00:53:46.560 I have no

00:53:56.360 physical sensation

00:53:57.460 in your dreams.

00:53:58.320 Well, but the

00:53:59.000 rules of physics

00:53:59.720 apply in your

00:54:00.360 dreams, is what

00:54:02.120 I'm saying.

00:54:08.520 I learned your

00:54:09.480 lesson about doing

00:54:10.140 your own research,

00:54:10.960 trying to figure out

00:54:11.600 how to do a live

00:54:12.240 broadcast.

00:54:12.880 Yeah.

00:54:13.000 that's a pretty

00:54:15.040 humbling thing.

00:54:16.760 Now, some of you

00:54:17.580 are going to say,

00:54:18.060 but Scott, what

00:54:18.840 about that

00:54:19.380 situation you

00:54:21.160 gave us with the

00:54:22.320 spasmodic dysphonia

00:54:23.700 and googling your

00:54:26.180 own voice

00:54:27.920 problem?

00:54:29.180 That's an

00:54:29.740 exception.

00:54:30.900 And one of the

00:54:32.400 things that makes

00:54:33.120 an exception is

00:54:34.140 that once I

00:54:34.700 found it, I

00:54:35.280 can verify it.

00:54:37.080 So having

00:54:37.660 found it on my

00:54:38.860 own, then I

00:54:40.180 could easily take

00:54:41.040 it to an expert,

00:54:42.040 I could find an

00:54:42.680 expert once I

00:54:43.400 had a name for

00:54:43.900 it, and then

00:54:44.760 the expert could

00:54:45.340 say, oh yeah,

00:54:45.820 you're right, and

00:54:46.660 then my research

00:54:48.500 just ends up being

00:54:49.360 the same as

00:54:50.560 science.

00:54:51.480 I end up in the

00:54:52.160 same place.

00:54:52.940 So that's really a

00:54:53.500 special case.

00:54:55.220 And I do think

00:54:55.940 that a motivated

00:54:57.940 person can do a

00:54:58.980 slice, but I

00:55:01.240 don't think we

00:55:01.700 can evaluate

00:55:02.180 studies very well,

00:55:03.520 most of us.

00:55:05.240 All right.

00:55:06.380 That is all I

00:55:07.260 have for today.

00:55:08.000 I believe I'm

00:55:08.900 babbling, and I'm

00:55:09.820 going to say goodbye

00:55:10.440 to YouTube.

00:55:11.400 Talk to you

00:55:12.600 later.

00:55:13.120 .

00:55:13.400 .

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00:55:36.400 .

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 06, 2021

Episode 1553 Scott Adams： Looks As If All Our Problems Have Been Solved Except Celebrities Killing People

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