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Real Coffee with Scott Adams
- November 23, 2021
Episode 1571 Scott Adams: Lawyers, Criminals, Politicians, and Other Weasels Are In My Target Zone Today
Episode Stats
Length
58 minutes
Words per Minute
152.82152
Word Count
8,880
Sentence Count
703
Misogynist Sentences
2
Hate Speech Sentences
12
Summary
Summaries are generated with
gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ
.
Transcript
Transcript is generated with
Whisper
(
turbo
).
Misogyny classification is done with
MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny
.
Hate speech classification is done with
facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target
.
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Bum-ba-dum-bum-bum. Wow. Hello, everybody, and good morning, and welcome to the best thing that
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ever happened in the history of the cosmos. Every single universe, metaverse, and simulation,
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the best thing ever. And you made it here on time, if you're watching this live.
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For those of you who are watching this not live, well, you've lost 20% of the sparkle.
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Next time, get up earlier, arrange your schedule, and get here live. And also hit the subscribe
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button if you're on YouTube, because that would be a way that you can repay me without paying me
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anything, in case you feel like you need to repay me for anything. I guess that was a little
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presumptuous, so forget I even said that. Let's instead do the simultaneous sip, but all you need
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is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any
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kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid I like. That's right, coffee. And join me now
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for the unparalleled pleasure. It's the dopamine here of the day, the thing that makes everything
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better. Yeah, except lawyers. It's called the simultaneous sip, and it's happening now. Go.
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Mmm. This is the only situation in which slurping is accepted. Don't do it with your bowl of rice.
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Don't do it with your soup. Don't do it with your beverages in general. But when you're doing the
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simultaneous sip, yeah, show some passion. Put a slurp on that thing. All right, Rasmussen had a
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fascinating little poll here that shows us something about our world. It asked how many people thought
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the media coverage on the Rittenhouse trial was prejudiced for Rittenhouse versus prejudiced against
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Rittenhouse? What do you think people said? Most of you saw the clips and coverage from the Rittenhouse
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trial. How many of you think that it was prejudiced against Rittenhouse? I'm talking about the news in
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general. How many say prejudiced against? Okay, lots of people think prejudiced against. Okay.
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Um, here's how the poll came out. Uh, 47% of the, uh, of the polled public said that it was prejudiced
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against Rittenhouse, but, uh, only 15% said it was prejudiced for him. That is a huge difference. 47% said it was
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against him, with only 15% said it was for him. But it gets even worse when you look at the, uh, political breakdown.
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Uh, the GOP, Republicans, 69% of those watching, 69% said it was prejudiced against him.
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But what about the Dems? They were watching exactly the same stuff, right? Weren't the Democrats watching
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the same footage, same trial? So what did the Democrats see? 69% of Republicans saw prejudiced
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against, the coverage would be against him. Only 22% of Democrats saw that. Three times as many
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Republicans saw reality clearly than Democrats. Now, on some things, I would say, hey, you know,
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reality is subjective. Uh, you know, everybody's opinion is about equally weighted. Your religion,
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my religion, you know, there's no favored one. Usually I tell you stuff like that, right?
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But not this time. This was actually, uh, adjudicated in a court of law, and we know the facts.
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We know that the video shows no crime. All right? That, uh, a jury decided that unanimously.
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And still, and I've said before that this case, the Rittenhouse case, is like the Rosetta Stone
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that opens up the awareness of Democrats. Like, Democrats were walking around in this fog,
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not understanding the world, not understanding why Republicans had different opinions exactly.
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You know, maybe the Republicans are just all dumb. Maybe the Republicans are all just evil.
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Maybe they're all just racist. Like, none of their theories of reality made any sense, right?
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And they were trying to figure out why their observations of reality isn't matching their
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understanding of reality. And I think the Rittenhouse trial finally explained it to them.
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It's because your understanding of reality, the ones you see, you know, what you observe with your own
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eyes, is completely different from what the news is telling you, because the news is fake.
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So, I think the Rittenhouse trial is where a huge number of Democrats finally learned,
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wait a minute, are you telling me it's not just Fox News? You know, from their point of view.
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I would still argue that Fox News has the most accurate news.
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Now, I've also called out Fox News for having stories that I don't think are true,
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or at least opinion pieces. Usually the news people are right on. I can't think of an example
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offhand. Can anybody else? Can you think of an example where the news people, not the opinion
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people, but the news people had something seriously wrong on Fox News? I'm sure that's happened, right?
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Can you give me an example? Calling Arizona earlier? Well, I don't know, but they were right
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on the Arizona call. They went with the Russia hoax. I don't think they did. I don't think they did.
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I think they reported it. Chris Wallace was all in on Trump collusion. Is Chris Wallace a news or
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opinion guy? I don't know what he is, actually. Hannity was into weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
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Okay, that's a good example. Chris Wallace is news. I guess you could say that. The interview ones
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seem a little different than regular news. I'm not sure I would call him news. I think he's a hybrid.
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Yeah, it's Mike Wallace. Sorry. Or Chris Wallace, right? All right. So anyway, here's the point.
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Do you think that the problem is that the media is different or the Democrats are wired differently?
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What do you think is happening? Do you think the Democrats just have different brains? So when
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they're looking at the same material, it just looks different? Or do you think they're not looking
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at the same material because they're looking through the media's lens and the media is just lying like
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crazy? I think it's both. Yeah. But I think in this case, it's the media lens. The media tells them
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what to think and then they just do. Here's an experiment for you. Find a Democrat who has an opinion
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that's different from the media's narrative. Find a Republican. Find a Democrat or a Republican, somebody
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who's actually registered that way, who has an explanation of the world that differs from the media's
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narrative. It's really rare. Yeah, Tulsi, Manchin, those would be good examples. All right.
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But I'm not talking about the politicians. I'm talking about voters. Well, I'm not a registered
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anything. So I'm not a Republican or a Democrat. In fact, I did the ground news test, I tweeted,
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where you can see if you're consuming more left news or right news. And mine's almost perfectly
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balanced. If you look at the news sources that I consume, it's about equal left and right.
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And I would argue that that keeps me, it protects me from cognitive dissonance, but not completely.
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Because nobody's, nobody can be completely clear of it. But I think if you look at both sides, you have
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at least a chance of knowing what's happening. All right. There was a study on intermittent fasting,
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which I must tell you, I have never tried. How many of you have tried intermittent fasting?
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The reason I've never tried it is because it looked like bullshit to me.
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And now a study says it doesn't make much difference. So a study of a bunch of obese people,
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there was a difference, actually. The fasters lost, 18% of them lost weight versus 15% of the
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non-fasters. So not a gigantic difference, but a difference, a difference. So here's how I
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would put it. This is what we learned in hypnosis class. Did you know that hypnosis doesn't work
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for quitting smoking or for overeating? And yet it's one of the main things that people go to a
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hypnotist for. It doesn't work at all. And when I say it doesn't work at all, what I mean is it works
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sometimes? Just like everything else. No matter what you try to lose weight, and no matter what you try
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to quit smoking, something like 20% of people succeed. You know, give or take. Do you know why 20% of people
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succeed at losing weight or quitting smoking? No matter what technique they use, hypnosis,
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willpower, go to a program. Do you know why? Because that's exactly the number who decided
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to lose weight. And that's exactly the number who decided to quit. And I've told you a million times
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this difference between wanting something and deciding. But the more you see the examples of it,
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the more you see it as a valid filter on what's really happening in the world.
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The people who decided to lose weight, it didn't matter what method they used,
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because they decided. So whatever technique they used worked for them, because it gave them a fake
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because. Oh, I'm losing weight because I got hypnotized. Or I'm losing weight because I'm fasting.
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I'm losing weight because I'm watching my carbs. You need a because, because that keeps you motivated
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that you're doing something right. But the because is random. It could be any because.
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Oh, I changed my favorite color. That's why I'm losing weight. That would work with about 20% of
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people. Now, that's a ridiculous example, but you get the point. 20%, it's going to work no matter
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what you do. All right. So I'm not a believer in intermittent fasting, but I can be convinced if
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there's, you know, someday if there's some better science or something. To me, it looks like a lot of pain
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for not enough gain. So the Merck COVID pill is being analyzed and we could have it soon. I don't
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know, maybe by the end of the year or something. So how good is the Merck COVID pill? Well, let's put
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it this way. Out of 762 participants in a trial, you know, half were given the placebo, half were given
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the real pill. And after a month went by, 45% of people who received the placebo were hospitalized.
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Doesn't that seem like a lot out of 762 participants? Where do you find 762 people
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in which 45 of them would end up in the hospital? How do you even do that? In a month?
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Is there something wrong with that? Now, again, yeah, maybe they took, oh, nurses? I don't
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know. Yeah, they must have found some kind of group that they knew was likely to get infected
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a lot. I don't know where they find these. So here's my first impulse is you couldn't possibly
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study this. I'm not saying that they studied it wrong. I'm saying, I don't know this could
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ever work. Could it? How do you get 762 participants and end up with 45 people hospitalized
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in a month? In a month? Something's going on here. We're not talking about infections.
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I would understand that. You know, if you're in a high infection area, a lot of people get
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infected. But how do 45 people end up hospitalized out of 762 in one month? So here's my first
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comment. The study looks like bullshit to me, without knowing what the explanation for
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that is. It looks like not enough people, and it looks like bullshit. Now, I'm an optimist,
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so I'm going to say that it does work. So the optimist in me is working against the observation.
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Here's one of the things I've told you to look for as a red flag to what's not true.
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When science says something's true, and then you see it in the real world as acting exactly the way
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science says it should act, probably true. Cigarettes, for example. Science at the moment says
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cigarettes will give you lung cancer. And sure enough, when you hear somebody you know who has
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lung cancer, nine out of ten times, there are cigarette smokers. So the world and the science
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are together. But I don't know. There's 762 people. This whole trial just looks like,
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doesn't make sense to me, in any world which I observe. I observe no world that looks like this
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study. So there's a red flag there for me, or a yellow flag at least. But here's the shocking
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news. Let's be optimistic and say this pill works. Because there's lots of background that
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suggests it actually does. So I do think it probably works. I don't know if this study is
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valid exactly. But among the group that received the drug, half as many were hospitalized. Still
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an alarming number. 28 out of 762 in one month were hospitalized. And that's the people who are on
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the drug. So I don't get these numbers. That doesn't make any sense to me. But there were nine
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people who died who didn't take the drug. Nine of them died in a 762, which seems like a lot,
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again, for one month. Right? If you took 762 people randomly from the population, you wouldn't expect
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nine of them to die that month, would you? Somebody says it's a nursing home study? Maybe, but I would
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think a nursing home study would be the wrong kind of study. Because it would only tell you if it works
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in a nursing home. Right? Am I wrong about that? I mean, a nursing home study would be excellent to
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have. But I don't know if it would tell you enough about the rest of the population in terms of the
00:15:26.620
risk reward. But anyway, I was taking the long road here to get to the shocking number that the number
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of people who took the pill and died was zero. Zero. None. Nobody who took the pill died. And nine
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people died in the control group out of just 762. If these numbers are valid, and I got a big question
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about it, this would be the end of the pandemic. Because when it talks about hospitalizations,
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it doesn't specify ICU, or how critical it became. Because even the hospitalizations might have been,
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you know, the milder hospitalization types is a little unclear. But if you took the number of people
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who died down to zero, or anything close to it, we're done. Get your rapid test. If you have a symptom,
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you take the pill, whether you're sure it's COVID or not. And nobody dies. We're done. So we might be
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that close. I don't give investment advice. But I'm going to be looking at investments in which the end of
00:16:43.520
the pandemic would really make a difference. Like if you really knew it was ended. Now, I don't know
00:16:48.680
that this pill will be the end. There could be another, you know, variant that makes everything
00:16:52.380
different. Who knows? But on a risk reward basis, I'll probably make a, I'm going to place a bet. I'm
00:17:00.060
not going to tell you ahead of time what it is. I'll tell you after the fact. But I'm probably going to
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place a bet on at least one industry that would make a big difference if this pill works. Yeah,
00:17:12.000
the travel industry. But I won't tell you specifically how well I'll play that. Now,
00:17:16.780
again, this is very much not, not, not advice. It's not an investment advice. The only reason you
00:17:24.360
should make an investment of this type is if you're already rich. And it's, you know, your play money.
00:17:30.940
But don't, don't invest in this if you don't have money to burn, basically. All right.
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One of the reasons I make investments like that is to see if I can predict because I can afford it.
00:17:46.700
So if I, you know, throw some small number of dollars at a bet, part of it is to make sure I
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remember I predicted it. Because you know how you forget things you predicted wrong? I'm not immune
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from that. I'll remember all the ones I got right. Don't remember the ones I got wrong. But man,
00:18:06.200
you put money on your bet. You'll remember that. You'll remember that. All right. Michael Cohen thinks
00:18:13.000
Trump won't run in 2024. And his reasons were that his fragile ego won't let him risk losing twice.
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What do you think of that reasoning? That Trump's fragile ego won't allow him to lose twice.
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You know, he's leading in the polls, right? This is the worst analysis I've ever seen.
00:18:35.960
I'm starting to think that all lawyers are dumb or criminal. Now, I know it's really because the
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sample we're seeing in the news is all the worst lawyers in the world. We're going to talk about
00:18:47.980
some lawyers who are even worse than this. But how is it that you become a fixer, as Michael Cohen was
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called for Trump? How is it you get the job of being a fixer? What's the way? What's the path to
00:19:01.000
becoming somebody's fixer? I think the path is through being a bad lawyer, isn't it? Do you get
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the job of the fixer if you're a good lawyer? Because I think if you're a good lawyer, you go work for
00:19:14.300
yourself and make a lot of money. I think you have to be a terrible lawyer to find yourself as some
00:19:20.240
billionaire's fixer. Anyway, if I had to analyze Trump's fragile ego, as it's called, I would say,
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number one, he has the strongest ego I've ever seen. All right? So my first statement is, it's the
00:19:38.140
opposite of a fragile ego. It's the strongest ego I've ever seen. Trump has taken more criticism
00:19:44.600
than anybody I've ever seen. And he knows it. He puts himself in situations where the
00:19:50.580
criticism will be brutal. You don't think he would change his hairstyle if he was concerned
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about criticism? How hard would it be for him to, you know, just change his hairstyle?
00:20:01.940
Right? I've got a feeling that Trump, and if you look at the way he ran for office, he said the
00:20:09.580
most provocative things that would guarantee people would call him terrible names, and then he kept
00:20:13.460
saying it. Well after you knew that if you keep saying these things, people are going to be calling
00:20:19.500
you the worst things in the world, he kept saying it. Trump, every action that Trump takes is the
00:20:25.800
opposite of somebody who has a fragile ego. But, suppose you put a different frame on it.
00:20:33.540
Instead of saying he has a fragile ego, what if you just framed it differently and said he's
00:20:38.240
competitive? Would it look different? Would it look different if you simply said he's super
00:20:44.740
competitive? It would look exactly the same. Right? He would say it was unfair when he lost,
00:20:52.040
because he would believe it true. He would act exactly the same. So this is a media narrative.
00:20:59.640
Don't fall for the fragile ego thing. All evidence suggests the opposite. All evidence suggests that
00:21:05.820
his ego is incredibly strong. In fact, maybe stronger than I've ever seen. Imagine thinking you could be
00:21:13.840
president without practice. He had no practice being a politician. And he thought, you know, maybe I can be
00:21:21.820
the president of the country. That's the biggest ego you've ever seen in your life. They can't call
00:21:28.680
him a narcissist and then also say he has a fragile ego. Well, I guess you can. Technically, you could do
00:21:34.180
that. But I think that would be a definitional issue. All right. Ridley Scott was complaining because his
00:21:41.300
bad movie didn't do well. And he's saying that, I'm just guessing it's a bad movie. I haven't seen it.
00:21:47.100
But it looks like it would be bad. You know, you look at the stills. You go, oh, that looks bad.
00:21:55.800
Don't you make your decision about a movie in the first, is it just the first second? You know,
00:22:01.880
the first picture you see, you go, oh, that looks pretty bad. Anyway, I guess he did a movie called
00:22:09.720
The Last Duel and didn't do well in the box office. And he says the problem is that the young
00:22:15.840
people basically are using their cell phones for their entertainment and they've trained themselves
00:22:20.720
not to watch movies. Is that what happened? Do you agree? Do you think that the young have trained
00:22:28.140
themselves to watch the movies on their phones and stuff and therefore movies in general are not
00:22:34.360
so good? Well, that's part of it. It's part of the story. It's definitely part of the story.
00:22:42.660
Here's the rest of the story. Movies are terrible. How about that? How about movies used to be good
00:22:52.100
and now they're terrible? That's the whole story. The reason people don't go to movies is because
00:23:00.100
they're terrible. Let me give you my impression of me watching a modern movie. Okay. A man loves his
00:23:10.080
wife. So something bad is going to happen to the wife, probably the kids. Okay. So you're kissing
00:23:15.720
your wife. I get it. You love your wife. Now you're talking in this movie, sweet talk stuff that makes
00:23:21.740
me want to vomit to prove that you really, really love your wife. I get it. Something bad is going to
00:23:27.000
happen to happen to the wife. Okay. You have established that you and the wife have a close
00:23:32.240
relationship. You're really in love. I get it. Okay. Now they're talking some more to show us that
00:23:38.360
they're still very much in love. We get it. You're in love. Get, you know, shoe somebody. Can you do
00:23:46.200
something? Okay. They're still in love. Now they're kissing because they really need to show that they're,
00:23:52.980
now they're making love. Now they're having sex to show us that they really, really, really,
00:23:58.720
really, really care about us. And only the slow class doesn't get it yet.
00:24:06.260
Now compare that to a YouTube clip. Five minute clip. Boom. Jumps right into the topic,
00:24:13.820
gives you something good, and then gets the hell out of your life. 10 minutes.
00:24:18.480
The reason movies don't work is that they suck. They are no longer tuned to the modern mindset.
00:24:27.800
Now when there was no entertainment in the world, which wasn't that long ago, going to a movie was
00:24:33.320
a big deal. And also seeing things on the big screen was really exciting. Is anybody old enough to
00:24:40.800
remember the first Star Wars movie? You wouldn't want to watch Star Wars on a little screen, right?
00:24:46.760
But if the new Star Wars movie comes out, let's imagine that they still made good ones. If you
00:24:54.860
imagined a good Star Wars movie came out, I would still be tempted to watch that on my phone.
00:25:01.160
And the reason is, they all look the same. Have you seen a car chase lately? Do you remember that
00:25:10.060
car chase with the really innovative? No, I don't either. I mean, they do do a really good job of trying
00:25:16.500
to add variety into car chases. And I'm impressed at how much variety they can add into something
00:25:21.920
that's basically the same scene. But here's me watching a car chase scene.
00:25:26.320
Okay, now they're chasing in the car. I'll see what's on Twitter until the car chase is over.
00:25:34.860
Car chase, car chase, still chasing the car. Let's see. Still chasing the car. Chasing the car.
00:25:44.260
Okay, the car chase is done. I'll watch some dialogue. All right, all right, all right. Oh,
00:25:48.640
God, now they tied a guy to a chair. They tied a guy to a chair. He's going to be tortured.
00:25:52.860
Back to Twitter. Guy tied to a chair. He's going to be tortured, but he's a good guy,
00:25:58.880
so he doesn't fold. Somehow escapes from the chair with the help of a confederate or possibly
00:26:04.160
smuggles something in his hand. Cutting the ropes now, killing his captors. Guy tied in the chair.
00:26:12.320
All right, done with that scene. What else is next? Tell me I'm wrong, right? Isn't that how you watch
00:26:19.640
movies? You see what they want to tell you, and then you say, can you get past it? Can we get past
00:26:26.060
this scene, please? All right, that's what you're feeling about this live stream right now.
00:26:31.160
Well, apparently there's a spacecraft set to launch from NASA to knock an asteroid off course.
00:26:37.960
It's not heading for the Earth. So let me say that up front. The asteroid they're testing on to see if
00:26:46.560
they can knock an asteroid off course is not heading toward the Earth. They're seeing if they
00:26:52.500
have the technology to change an asteroid early on if it's first detected. So if we think there's
00:26:58.700
one that might come to the Earth, maybe we could nudge it. So the one that they're testing on is
00:27:04.000
absolutely not heading toward the Earth. I need you to know that. At least until they nudge it.
00:27:13.420
Because I'm not sure they have the nudging technology nailed yet. Now, obviously, it would
00:27:20.040
be a tremendous coincidence if the way they nudged it incorrectly made it hit Earth. But we do live in
00:27:27.800
a simulation where the least likely thing seems to happen all the time. So I'd be a little careful
00:27:33.820
about which side you nudge that asteroid on. That's all I'm saying. But I love the fact
00:27:37.920
that we're thinking so far ahead that we're nudging asteroids. All right. I'm going to give
00:27:44.440
the biggest compliment I've ever given to the Biden administration. And I'm not going to listen
00:27:49.280
to any criticism of it. Of course I will. But I'm trying to set you up here. All right. I'm going
00:27:55.900
to tell you something that the Biden administration did right. That's really, really good.
00:28:00.880
And I think Trump might have done it too. So I'm not going to say, you know, nobody else
00:28:06.440
could have done it or anything. But this is one of the best pieces of management I've ever
00:28:12.080
seen. Are you ready for this? The supply chain problem. The Biden administration formed a
00:28:21.720
task force. They decided to impose these $100 per container fines, which after nine days,
00:28:28.760
you know, $100 per container, you say, well, that's not that much. And then they increased
00:28:33.580
it by $100 every day. And as soon as they announced the fines, things cleared out very
00:28:41.360
quickly. In other words, when I guess the container problem has fallen by 33%, which is why it's
00:28:48.240
not been in the news. And it's not because of the penalties. It's because of the threat of
00:28:53.280
the penalties. And because the threat of the penalties works so well, they're holding back
00:28:57.280
on the penalties. Now, here is why this is the best piece of management I've seen from
00:29:04.340
our government. Maybe ever. Honestly, this is one of the best pieces of management you'll
00:29:09.180
ever see. Here's what they did. And I'll take a fact check on this. Because if I'm over analyzing
00:29:17.280
or over interpreting this, it's possible. So give me a fact check on this if you think
00:29:21.360
I went too far. When everybody, all the experts looked at the ports, what did people come away
00:29:27.760
with as the problem? Now, you know about Ryan Peterson having a good take on the fact that
00:29:34.620
there wasn't enough room for all the containers. So there was just a physical convention problem.
00:29:40.360
But on top of that, there were a number of, I guess, regulations that were keeping them
00:29:47.340
from doing some common sense stuff. And some of those got changed pretty quickly. So that
00:29:51.300
was good. That was local government. But it was good. But here's what happened. It didn't
00:30:00.120
look like anybody was making the changes they needed to, because it didn't look like they
00:30:04.300
had the economic incentive to solve a problem that wasn't one big problem. It was 1,000 little
00:30:12.520
things that needed to be tweaked. But nobody had an economic incentive to do it. So they gave them
00:30:19.320
an economic incentive. And they didn't solve the problem for them. This is the brilliant part.
00:30:25.540
If the Biden administration had gone and said, here's what you need to do, pile these up in this
00:30:30.120
place. Or get a train and take them all to this field. If they had been that specific, it would
00:30:36.820
have been a disaster. Because it would be people who don't know about containers and shipping telling
00:30:42.360
the people who do know about it how to do their job. How well would that work, right? Unlikely that's
00:30:48.600
going to work. But instead, they said, I'll tell you what we're going to do. We think all you motherfuckers
00:30:55.780
are lying. This is my interpretation. Can't read minds, remember? But here's how I'm interpreting
00:31:00.900
it. I think the Biden administration looked into it and said, I think all you fuckers are just lying
00:31:06.400
to us. I think you're all just fucking lying. Here's what we're going to do. We're going to put a boot
00:31:11.780
on your head. And we're going to squeeze your fucking head until you solve the problem that you're lying
00:31:17.360
to us about. And then they put the fines on, which was like the boot on the head. And they said,
00:31:23.280
all right, we're going to start to squeeze. And then watch you solve the problem that you said
00:31:27.300
can't be solved. And then they solved the problem that they said couldn't be solved.
00:31:33.820
This was good management. I can't tell you how many times in corporate America I've seen
00:31:40.060
this scene unfold. It's sort of like the Star Trek captain scene, where Scotty says,
00:31:47.060
I cannot give you warp four, captain. The ship was not meant to do warp four for 10 more minutes.
00:31:53.280
And the captain says, make it happen, Scotty. And he's like, we can't do it. And then he does it.
00:31:59.140
Now, that's the ridiculous cartoon version of management. But in the real world, I used to do
00:32:06.000
budgets. And I would collect the budgets of each of the departments and take it to the head. And
00:32:13.100
then it would be way over the total budget that he could get approved. So I'd say, well,
00:32:19.580
we should go back and cut the projects that don't look so good. We'll keep all the good stuff. But
00:32:26.280
we'll go back and cut the projects that aren't good. And the vice president, or AVP, I think it was,
00:32:32.800
said, no, just tell everybody to cut 10%. And I said, you can't do that. Because some of these groups
00:32:40.640
really need all the money. Some of them probably asked for too much. You really need to go in there
00:32:45.440
with a scalpel, not a sledgehammer. You can't go in there and just say everybody 10%. Now, keep in
00:32:52.120
mind, I was very young. And this executive was very experienced. So this experienced person was
00:32:59.100
telling me something that sounded batshit crazy to me. Just tell everybody to cut 10%. I didn't see how
00:33:05.120
that was a good idea. But it was my job. So I went back and told everybody to cut 10%. How do you think
00:33:12.380
it worked out? Fine. What problems did it cause? Zero. None. Not a single problem. Because what the
00:33:23.040
executive knew with his experience, that I didn't know, as a young 20-something, is that they were all
00:33:30.520
lying. He knew everybody was lying. He knew that if he put the screws on them and said, well, you'll be
00:33:37.600
fired if you don't cut 10%, that everybody could do it. They just had to figure out their own way to do
00:33:42.900
it. He couldn't specify how to do it. But he could tell them it had to be done. And you're fired if you
00:33:48.400
don't do it. And then it gets done. So it's very much like the Adams law of slow-moving disasters.
00:33:53.820
Once it's obvious that you have to fix this problem, we're pretty good at fixing stuff. You just can't
00:33:59.740
guess in advance exactly how it'll happen. Because you've got to A, B, test your way to it. So standing
00:34:06.940
ovation to the Biden-Harris supply chain disruptions task force. And you have to give Biden the credit.
00:34:16.000
Now, I don't think he should be your president, just to be clear. Not a big Biden supporter. But when he does
00:34:22.820
something right, or his administration does, this was very right. So Buttigieg is good now. Somebody
00:34:29.760
says, I don't know if Buttigieg was involved with the task force. But if it was, it would show some
00:34:34.460
experience and some good judgment. It took too long, maybe. Maybe. You know, do you know what else
00:34:42.420
takes too long? Everything. Do you know what you should have started sooner? Everything good.
00:34:52.000
Everything good. So do you know what is the worst criticism in the world? Should have done it
00:34:57.640
sooner. That's what your spouse says to you. Oh, you cleaned up the garage? Should have done it
00:35:05.960
sooner. All right. Congratulations on that solution. Let's talk about the race filter. You know,
00:35:14.500
the Democrats can only see race in everything. But they will also try to hide it when it doesn't
00:35:21.600
work in their favor. So you're watching the story about the gentleman who ran over a bunch of people
00:35:29.180
in Wisconsin, was it? Waukesha? Apparently, he ran over the woman that allegedly is the mother of his
00:35:38.140
child with the same red SUV before he ran over the people in the crowd. So in a whole separate
00:35:44.980
incident, he already ran over a woman with the same vehicle. And then he ran over some more people.
00:35:51.220
And the mainstream press told us that he was probably escaping from some other thing,
00:35:56.560
for which there's no evidence. Now, he happens to be black. And in our highly racial-charged world,
00:36:05.700
people say that matters. Now, it doesn't matter to the story in any way that I can tell,
00:36:11.400
because there doesn't seem to be a racial component to anything he did.
00:36:17.280
Well, even if he's a black nationalist, it doesn't mean there's a racial component to what he did.
00:36:21.680
So we don't know why he did what he did. Is that true? He hasn't said why he did what he did, right?
00:36:30.220
So I wouldn't make an assumption one way or the other. I would just say that the mainstream media
00:36:38.040
seem to be, let's say, downplaying his race because they didn't want it to be part of the story.
00:36:43.300
But we're very racially conscious, so it looks like it will be.
00:36:52.440
But the initial interpretation that he was fleeing the scene of another crime seems to be BS, BS.
00:36:58.900
Now, let's talk about the Amoud Arbery case, which I had not been following closely.
00:37:04.580
I try to ignore individual crime stories, because I just feel like we make too much of them.
00:37:11.660
But some of them you can't ignore, like Rittenhouse, of course, couldn't ignore that.
00:37:18.880
But Amoud Arbery, this is a really interesting case, because the situation was there was a neighborhood
00:37:25.060
that there had been some burglaries, and somebody described as apparently a black male
00:37:31.700
was thought to be one of the suspects.
00:37:33.920
And then a man who was jogging through the neighborhood, Amoud Arbery, was seen looking
00:37:40.940
through, I think, a construction site.
00:37:43.540
So on video, it looked like he was trespassing.
00:37:46.220
But he was just looking around, didn't take anything, went back to his jogging.
00:37:50.740
And some white citizens, you need to know they're white, you need to know he's black,
00:37:55.760
tracked him down, and they had guns with him.
00:37:58.800
And they decided to do a citizen's arrest.
00:38:03.120
And in the course of that citizen's arrest, apparently Amoud tried to grab the gun,
00:38:09.200
and then it turned into potentially a self-defense case.
00:38:12.720
That's debatable.
00:38:14.560
And the gun went off.
00:38:15.760
Well, not, didn't go off.
00:38:17.120
The person with the gun pulled the trigger, killed Amoud Arbery.
00:38:21.320
And now the question is, the defense rests on two things.
00:38:27.460
Number one, that a citizen's arrest was legal at the time.
00:38:32.580
Apparently, it's not legal anymore.
00:38:34.000
They changed that because of this.
00:38:35.820
But at the time, it was totally legal to do a citizen's arrest.
00:38:39.680
So that part's not illegal.
00:38:41.420
And it's also totally legal to do self-defense, if it can be proven that's what it was.
00:38:47.840
So that's the defense.
00:38:49.000
Now, how would you know that it was that?
00:38:54.980
It was really just, they really thought he was a suspect.
00:38:59.020
They didn't know.
00:39:00.940
But he fit the description.
00:39:03.040
And so they thought they would detain him long enough to determine whether he was that person
00:39:07.620
that maybe was on video somewhere.
00:39:10.900
Was that legal?
00:39:15.300
It was.
00:39:16.420
At the time, it was totally legal.
00:39:18.000
Even if he wasn't guilty.
00:39:21.280
Right?
00:39:21.660
Now, apparently, he had a criminal record from before that.
00:39:25.260
But it is legal to do a citizen's arrest, or it was.
00:39:29.140
It's not legal now in that state.
00:39:33.120
But do you think that the defendants will be charged
00:39:37.420
because the thing that they did was legal was so bad that it was made illegal after they did it?
00:39:45.240
I think they might go to jail for doing something completely legal
00:39:49.720
because people thought, you know, now that we see it in action, we should make that illegal.
00:39:54.120
And here's my main point on this.
00:40:00.340
There is no way to convict these men, that I can see, unless you believe you can read their minds.
00:40:07.220
Because you would have to read their mind to know that racial motive was not in there.
00:40:13.880
Because there's no objective evidence of racial motive.
00:40:17.760
Am I wrong?
00:40:18.600
Somebody do a fact check for me.
00:40:20.640
There's nobody, there's no objective evidence.
00:40:22.720
Is there, like, somebody testifying that somebody thought this way or said something?
00:40:30.900
But they were also racist.
00:40:32.560
That could be true.
00:40:34.060
That could be true that they were also racist.
00:40:36.560
But you would have to see in their mind to know if that's the reason they stopped Ahmoud Arbery.
00:40:42.840
So, how do you convict somebody if the only way you could convict them, Scott's ignorant.
00:40:54.660
Nicholas Fleming writes in all caps, Scott's ignorant.
00:40:59.120
Well, Nicholas, let me pause for a moment to talk to Nicholas.
00:41:04.300
Here's some advice.
00:41:06.380
When you call somebody, let's say you accuse somebody of not being a genius.
00:41:12.840
If you spell genius, G-N-U-S, as in Scott's no genus, well, you didn't do well.
00:41:21.740
Because that reflects poorly on you.
00:41:25.820
When you type in all caps, Scott's ignorant, and you forget to put the apostrophe before the S on Scott's,
00:41:37.480
that does not make me look as ignorant as the person who made the comment.
00:41:42.020
Now, if you wanted to tell me what I got wrong, given that I'm literally fucking asking people to fact check me as I go,
00:41:52.720
very welcome.
00:41:54.600
But if you would like to misspell things in the service of calling me ignorant,
00:42:00.340
let me suggest that that might be the most useful thing you've ever done,
00:42:04.160
because you look like a fucking idiot who probably can't do anything right.
00:42:08.320
So you might not want to jump right into the public displays of your ignorance.
00:42:16.660
Now I'm seeing people on YouTube misspelling ignorant intentionally.
00:42:20.460
All right.
00:42:23.800
So that's my bottom line.
00:42:26.000
I don't see any way that these two people can be convicted unless you believe you could read their minds,
00:42:31.380
because it is completely legal.
00:42:34.420
And again, check me if I'm wrong.
00:42:37.380
Is it completely legal to be a racist in your mind while you're doing things that are completely legal?
00:42:43.640
Is there anything wrong with that?
00:42:45.780
Well, there's something wrong with having a racist brain, I suppose.
00:42:50.060
But it's not illegal.
00:42:52.660
It's not illegal to think terrible thoughts, as long as you don't break the actual law.
00:42:58.200
So it could be that these three people were horrible racists.
00:43:01.700
I don't have any evidence of that.
00:43:03.020
Maybe somebody else does.
00:43:04.300
It's irrelevant.
00:43:07.160
Somebody says you're misinterpreting the law.
00:43:09.480
Which law?
00:43:09.980
Which law?
00:43:13.120
The self-defense or the citizen's arrest?
00:43:16.560
Hate crimes?
00:43:18.240
How could it be a hate crime if you don't know the intention of the people?
00:43:22.760
You would have to know the intention to make it a hate crime.
00:43:25.740
And I don't think there's any objective evidence of intention, is there?
00:43:31.460
Hate crimes aren't real, somebody says.
00:43:33.360
Oh, I think they are.
00:43:34.780
I think hate crimes are real.
00:43:37.860
All right.
00:43:38.200
Yeah, thanks for reminding me.
00:43:40.340
I will remember that.
00:43:41.940
All right.
00:43:42.340
You want to hear the most disturbing story I've heard this year?
00:43:46.680
And there have been a lot of disturbing stories this year.
00:43:49.600
You want to hear the worst one?
00:43:52.020
Kyle Rittenhouse told Tucker Carlson that his first set of lawyers that were later fired,
00:43:58.580
Linwood and John Pierce,
00:43:59.860
kept him in jail from September until November to raise money for themselves.
00:44:11.840
In other words, to pay for the defense.
00:44:13.640
And they could have let him out in September.
00:44:20.580
Don't you feel like you're hearing that wrong?
00:44:23.820
He was a 17-year-old at the time, literally a minor.
00:44:27.500
And these two lawyers, allegedly, according to Kyle, kept him in jail for two months, a 17-year-old,
00:44:36.700
for a crime he didn't commit when he didn't need to,
00:44:40.920
because they could make more money if he stayed in jail.
00:44:43.120
Now, normally, I would be cursing up a storm.
00:44:49.380
But this is so bad, so bad,
00:44:53.200
these lawyers should be dead.
00:44:56.860
Now, I'm not suggesting any violence.
00:44:59.500
But if you were to come up with a proper penalty for this crime,
00:45:05.600
which apparently isn't a crime,
00:45:07.340
because they just talked him into agreeing to it, I guess,
00:45:10.420
what would be the proper penalty?
00:45:12.060
I think death.
00:45:14.500
This looks like a death penalty crime
00:45:16.640
without maybe any crime actually being committed.
00:45:22.320
Now, what good is the Bar Association if these guys are still practicing?
00:45:27.340
If Lin Wood is still practicing,
00:45:30.660
does disbarment mean anything?
00:45:33.280
I mean, it doesn't mean anything if he's still practicing,
00:45:35.420
assuming this is true.
00:45:36.860
Now, of course, these are allegations.
00:45:38.940
You have to hear the other side.
00:45:39.960
All right.
00:45:43.400
Are the J6 hearings being live-streamed?
00:45:46.600
Because I haven't seen any.
00:45:48.260
I assume maybe.
00:45:50.380
Can you tell me?
00:45:51.740
The January 6th committee that's looking into that,
00:45:54.800
is it being live-streamed?
00:45:55.980
No?
00:45:57.200
Damn it.
00:45:58.280
Because the new news is that Roger Stone and Alex Jones have been subpoenaed.
00:46:02.140
Is there any way we can get that video?
00:46:07.480
Because I think both of them would be way more entertaining
00:46:09.960
if they knew it was being televised.
00:46:12.280
I think it is a crime to the public
00:46:14.880
if this doesn't get televised just for the entertainment value.
00:46:18.880
Say what you will about your Roger Stones and your Alex Joneses,
00:46:23.460
and people do.
00:46:25.200
People do.
00:46:26.200
I don't think either of them have been accused of being accurate all the time,
00:46:30.400
if you know what I mean.
00:46:31.980
I think Roger Stone was once described by,
00:46:36.320
remind me who said this, independent journalist,
00:46:40.020
a fabulist.
00:46:41.320
Roger Stone is a fabulist.
00:46:44.260
Somebody who makes up stories.
00:46:45.700
Anyway, that's just happening,
00:46:49.000
and I think that that's marvelous,
00:46:50.540
and I wish we could watch it.
00:46:52.820
All right.
00:46:54.380
So the big Build Back Better thing
00:46:57.280
apparently has this part of it
00:46:59.280
that would give some kind of legal status
00:47:00.880
to illegal immigrants.
00:47:04.600
Now, it doesn't give them citizenship.
00:47:06.400
It just gives them some kind of work permit status, etc.
00:47:09.420
And only 21% of likely Arizona voters approve of it.
00:47:15.700
21%.
00:47:16.860
Now, Arizona is one of those states
00:47:20.180
that you need to win to win the presidency,
00:47:22.700
or at least it's helpful.
00:47:25.680
And they are so against this Democrat plan,
00:47:29.080
it's rare that you see this many people against something.
00:47:35.400
And here's my question.
00:47:36.720
What do the economists say
00:47:37.900
about the immigrant legal status provision?
00:47:40.080
Forget about fairness.
00:47:42.560
Forget about America first.
00:47:44.240
I mean, obviously, you care about all those things.
00:47:47.080
But if you were just looking at this
00:47:48.340
from an economic standpoint,
00:47:51.000
and not about the economics of any specific individual,
00:47:54.780
but in general, the GDP,
00:47:57.400
would economists say that
00:47:58.900
giving these workers some work status
00:48:02.500
would make any difference economically?
00:48:04.520
Because I don't know how that would work exactly.
00:48:08.080
And I'm not sure we'd believe any economics on that anyway.
00:48:11.740
All right, forget about that.
00:48:14.460
I saw in the BBC
00:48:15.460
that Israel seems to be quite preparing
00:48:18.480
to attack Iran's nuclear sites.
00:48:20.880
Now, some say it would be easier for them
00:48:22.660
to just keep assassinating their nuclear scientists,
00:48:25.480
which apparently they're doing with great efficiency.
00:48:27.660
But I read this one fact,
00:48:30.420
and I thought, okay, it's game on.
00:48:32.500
Apparently, Israel has allocated $1.5 billion
00:48:35.700
to prepare the Israeli armed forces
00:48:38.580
for a potential strike against Iranian nuclear sites.
00:48:43.180
And they're talking about it nonstop,
00:48:46.260
and they say there's no way
00:48:47.260
that the Iranians are going to get a nuclear weapon.
00:48:50.980
Doesn't it look like they're preparing to attack?
00:48:53.440
If you had to guess,
00:48:54.540
do you think that Israel's going to bomb?
00:48:58.220
And apparently American bunker busters are part of that.
00:49:01.040
Because I don't know that Biden
00:49:02.120
would ever give the green light for that.
00:49:04.640
And it looks like they would need
00:49:06.240
American bunker busters to get it done.
00:49:11.480
So it looks like Biden could stop this from happening.
00:49:14.540
What do you think?
00:49:16.580
Yeah, somebody says Israel has no choice,
00:49:19.060
but would they do the mission
00:49:20.220
if they didn't have our bunker buster aircraft,
00:49:22.860
or do they have their own?
00:49:24.540
Maybe they have their own by now.
00:49:26.220
I mean, it makes sense that they'd have their own.
00:49:28.720
All right, I'm going to say,
00:49:30.080
I think game on.
00:49:34.360
So this isn't one of my 99% confidence predictions.
00:49:38.820
I'm going to give this a 60%.
00:49:41.780
I say 60% likely Israel will attack Iran
00:49:46.580
in the next 12 months.
00:49:47.880
All right, there's a controversial conspiracy chart
00:49:52.280
by Abby Richards.
00:49:53.440
It's a triangle that shows, you know,
00:49:56.660
the various things that people believe
00:49:58.140
and which ones are maybe kind of true
00:49:59.800
and which ones are ridiculous.
00:50:02.100
And it turns out a lot of people
00:50:04.100
had their favorite conspiracy theories challenged in this.
00:50:07.800
Now, I'm not saying that Abby Richards
00:50:09.400
is the authority on what's a real conspiracy theory
00:50:12.960
and what isn't.
00:50:13.520
But it was a real good chart.
00:50:16.040
So I love visual representations that really clarify stuff.
00:50:20.780
And this was a good one.
00:50:21.880
But there were two things that people disagreed with
00:50:23.880
that she called conspiracies.
00:50:26.840
One of them was George Soros
00:50:29.200
and the other was the deep state.
00:50:30.600
So Abby put them both in the total conspiracy category,
00:50:34.960
no doubt about it.
00:50:36.440
What do you think?
00:50:37.060
Are the George Soros conspiracy theories
00:50:40.980
and the deep state conspiracy theories fake?
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What would you say?
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Well, I think this is a definition thing.
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That's what I think.
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I do think it's biased
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because how could it not be?
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It's made by one person.
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But so here's my take on both of those things.
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I think both of them depend on how you define it.
00:51:02.620
You could define them both as true
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and you could define them both as not true.
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Am I right?
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I think you could go either way.
00:51:11.580
So here's how you would define the Soros thing as true.
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Does George Soros give a lot of money
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to groups that are doing things
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that apparently will destroy the United States?
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Yes.
00:51:24.980
Yes.
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George Soros gives lots of money to groups
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that you could easily imagine
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if they got their way it would destroy the United States.
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I don't think that's a conspiracy theory.
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That part's public, right?
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That part I don't think anybody even questions.
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And he also has some open borders
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kind of thoughts that if they became the standard,
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it would destroy the country for sure.
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So I would say that's true as far as those things go.
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But if you believe the next level,
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that George Soros is intentionally wanting
00:52:00.820
to destroy the United States,
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I don't know that that's in evidence.
00:52:05.500
Could be.
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Maybe.
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But I feel like there's a level to this that's not true,
00:52:11.560
even though there's a base to it that we can all observe.
00:52:14.720
It's observably true that he funds things
00:52:17.040
that you think would destroy the country.
00:52:19.680
That's observably true.
00:52:20.860
Now, how about the deep state?
00:52:23.120
Deep state exists?
00:52:25.240
Again, it depends how you define it.
00:52:28.280
If you define the deep state as all the people
00:52:30.560
who colluded on the Steele dossier,
00:52:35.400
yeah, it totally exists.
00:52:38.100
That's about as clearly in existence
00:52:41.020
as anything could possibly be.
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Those 17 intel agencies who all lied?
00:52:45.580
If you can get 17 intel agencies
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and the head of the CIA, ex-head of the CIA,
00:52:51.740
to lie to you directly,
00:52:54.800
that's the deep state.
00:52:56.980
Yeah.
00:52:57.240
And they're doing it to support one political party?
00:52:59.580
Yeah, that's the deep state.
00:53:01.580
Yeah.
00:53:01.980
So I would say the deep state is unambiguously true.
00:53:04.740
But like the George Soros thing,
00:53:06.980
there's also a level you could take it to
00:53:08.980
that probably would lose your credibility.
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All right.
00:53:17.680
I promised the people on Locals
00:53:19.720
that I would, if I had time,
00:53:22.260
I would talk about crypto and inflation
00:53:24.340
and the metaverse and inflation.
00:53:30.040
What does crypto do to the money supply?
00:53:35.700
Let me ask you.
00:53:37.160
What does it do to the money supply,
00:53:38.600
the regular money supply?
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What does it do to the money supply?
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Nothing.
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Martin says, nothing.
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Well, it stabilizes it.
00:53:51.620
Does it take money off the table
00:53:53.360
because people will buy crypto and hold it?
00:53:57.860
I don't think so
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because they bought it from somebody
00:54:00.360
so that money is still in the system, right?
00:54:02.140
It expands the money supply.
00:54:06.920
Okay, what happens if somebody buys crypto
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and then they use the crypto to buy something
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instead of buying cash?
00:54:18.120
It's kind of complicated, isn't it?
00:54:23.300
Bitcoin does not expand the money supply.
00:54:26.360
Does it change it at all?
00:54:27.400
Does crypto change the velocity
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or anything about the regular money supply?
00:54:38.060
I'm not sure we know.
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So I'm going to put a question mark on this one.
00:54:44.400
I would say that I don't see
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how it would change inflation
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but it's such a big effect.
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I feel like there might be an indirect way
00:54:53.020
it's pushing something around.
00:54:54.480
That's sort of an instinct that I have
00:54:57.080
just from sort of living in the world
00:54:58.520
but I don't want to see the direct effect.
00:55:05.780
There's a gel man effect with you.
00:55:07.520
Every time you talk about something I know about
00:55:09.220
I see that you're wrong.
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How do you know it's me that's wrong?
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If I talk about something that you know
00:55:18.960
and it's wrong, give me an example.
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Give me one example of that.
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I'm not sure I'll see it
00:55:24.980
because I'm going to be looking away for a moment.
00:55:27.200
All right.
00:55:30.220
Now what about the metaverse?
00:55:32.500
Will the metaverse change inflation?
00:55:37.040
Suppose you are spending a bunch of money
00:55:39.340
in the real world
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and enjoying yourself
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but then the metaverse comes along
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and you put on your VR goggles
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and you can spend all day in the metaverse
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and you're making money in the metaverse
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but it's crypto.
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So you do something in the metaverse
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that makes you some money in the metaverse
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and then you spend that money
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that you made in the metaverse
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on metaverse stuff.
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So maybe you're buying some furniture
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for your metaverse house
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and you're spending some time in there.
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Can you imagine that people
00:56:08.240
would shift their spending
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from real money
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to metaverse crypto
00:56:15.480
because they're spending more time
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in the non-real world
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and that's the money they use in there.
00:56:21.120
They earn it in there
00:56:22.160
and they spend it in there.
00:56:23.480
Now you could also bring it
00:56:24.320
from the outside into it, of course.
00:56:26.920
But
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could people spend so much money
00:56:30.300
on the metaverse
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that they don't spend as much
00:56:32.860
entertaining themselves, for example,
00:56:35.060
or even furnishing their helm.
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Imagine if you thought to yourself,
00:56:39.320
well, I could buy a new chair for my house
00:56:41.020
or I could buy a mansion in the metaverse
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for the same amount of money.
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Which one are you going to do?
00:56:48.860
So
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what is the metaverse?
00:56:52.520
The metaverse is the digital simulated world
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that Facebook is promoting
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and others are
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in which you'll put on virtual reality goggles
00:57:01.440
and live in a world that doesn't exist.
00:57:03.300
But it'll be a full world
00:57:05.220
with other characters
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and scenery and stuff.
00:57:10.200
If you live in that world
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and it's compelling enough,
00:57:13.000
it should reduce spending
00:57:14.540
in the regular world.
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Unless
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the metaverse itself
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costs money
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from the regular world
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in which all bets are off.
00:57:21.720
So I guess there are two things going on.
00:57:23.260
One is crypto
00:57:23.760
and one is the metaverse
00:57:24.740
and I wonder if
00:57:25.860
there's going to be some way
00:57:27.100
that they interfere.
00:57:29.280
And I don't know exactly
00:57:30.180
the answer to that
00:57:30.960
but it's a provocative question.
00:57:33.300
Yeah, NFTs are going to be huge
00:57:36.360
in the metaverse.
00:57:38.100
They will be huge.
00:57:40.100
Alright,
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I've got to do some other things
00:57:42.240
and I'll talk to you
00:57:43.240
tomorrow.
00:57:45.740
Bye for now, YouTube.
00:57:46.640
YouTube
00:57:46.800
I'll see you guys around this one.
00:57:52.140
Thanks for listening.
00:57:52.300
б
00:57:52.800
...
00:57:53.100
I'll see you next time
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here.
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Bye.
00:57:59.840
Bye.
00:58:03.740
Woo Ł w
00:58:05.520
!
00:58:05.580
Y
00:58:06.160
...
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