Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1622 Scott Adams： Let's Talk About My Vaccination Regrets and Cognitive Blindness. Lots of Persuasion Lessons Today

00:00:00.840 Welcome to the best thing that ever happened to you.

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00:01:01.520 Ah.

00:01:02.820 I've seen some good memes go by on the Locals platform.

00:01:06.900 By the way, if you're on YouTube, could you hit the subscribe button for me while you're thinking about it?

00:01:11.700 Assuming you'd like to subscribe to this channel.

00:01:13.680 And if you want to see more of my content,

00:01:17.440 then you can see in the more censored environment,

00:01:21.980 the Locals platform is where you want to go for that.

00:01:24.840 Locals.

00:01:25.840 All right.

00:01:27.900 Here was a tweet that caught my attention from Austin Allred.

00:01:34.120 And he tweeted this.

00:01:35.620 He said,

00:01:36.020 Someone I know reported having an incredible year in every way.

00:01:40.620 And I asked him what changed.

00:01:44.160 He said,

00:01:45.160 I just decided I'd try believing in the simulation and behave as if that were true.

00:01:51.460 See how it plays out.

00:01:53.260 So as soon as he changed his frame from, let's call it standard reality,

00:02:01.880 to a simulation mindset,

00:02:04.000 that it doesn't mean that it doesn't mean that's true.

00:02:06.140 It was just a frame, a change of frame of how to look at reality,

00:02:09.860 that apparently his intentions started translating directly into reality.

00:02:15.440 Now, if we are a simulation,

00:02:18.480 I feel there's at least anecdotal evidence that your intentions have some kind of effect.

00:02:24.940 And I make the difference between the things you want, which are not intentions, they're just things you want.

00:02:32.300 Things you hope for, that's not it.

00:02:34.640 Things you're optimistic about, nope, that's not it.

00:02:37.700 But intention.

00:02:39.820 Like you really intend for something to happen.

00:02:42.220 And it does seem that, at least from a subjective reality perspective,

00:02:47.540 it does seem like your intentions are guiding the universe.

00:02:51.500 So here's one more report on that.

00:02:53.320 I'm not going to tell you there's any scientific backing for this.

00:02:56.380 I will just say that it was absolutely free for this individual to try it.

00:03:01.840 So if you were to try this reframing yourself,

00:03:06.360 just imagine you're a game player in a game,

00:03:09.180 it doesn't cost you anything.

00:03:11.380 In fact, nobody will even know you're doing it.

00:03:13.540 You can actually do it while you're bored, standing in line.

00:03:18.340 Or you're bored in a meeting.

00:03:20.620 Just say to yourself, what if this were just a video game?

00:03:24.200 And the challenge is to, you know, like,

00:03:27.020 give something to honor and be happy or whatever.

00:03:28.640 And what if my intentions could steer it?

00:03:32.460 It's just something you could play with in your head.

00:03:34.440 Because you will find that if you imagine the world is a video game,

00:03:38.060 it's easier to imagine that your problems aren't real.

00:03:42.260 Because you know how many of your problems are really just problems

00:03:44.700 because of the way you react to them?

00:03:47.740 I mean, the outside reality is going to give you challenges, of course.

00:03:52.240 But the way you react to them is your immediate problem.

00:03:55.440 And as long as you change the frame to a video game,

00:03:58.640 you'd say, oh, I'm competing.

00:04:02.320 You know, if you were, let's say, a hurdler in the Olympics

00:04:06.000 where you're supposed to jump over these obstacles,

00:04:09.220 you wouldn't say that the hurdles are obstacles.

00:04:13.380 You wouldn't call the hurdles problems

00:04:16.340 because it's a game.

00:04:20.420 You say, oh, that's how the game works.

00:04:22.460 I have to work through how to jump over these hurdles really quickly.

00:04:27.740 You can actually reframe your own experience.

00:04:30.580 This is what I used to do with school.

00:04:33.280 So if you have a student who has trouble seeing the significance of school,

00:04:39.360 because it's really hard when you're young

00:04:40.940 to see how this all connects to your future.

00:04:43.700 Not everybody can do that.

00:04:45.480 But if you say, well, think of it more like a sport.

00:04:49.280 Think of it as a competition.

00:04:50.540 So every time there was a test coming when I was a student,

00:04:54.560 I would say, oh, it's not a test.

00:04:56.420 It's like a competition.

00:04:58.100 So I'm going to see how I do against the other competitors.

00:05:02.060 And that made it easy to study

00:05:03.920 because it's not hard for me to practice a sport.

00:05:08.360 You know, it's not really fun, fun to practice, let's say, tennis.

00:05:12.380 It's more fun to play a game.

00:05:15.540 But I still can do it because, you know,

00:05:18.420 I know it's connected to something.

00:05:20.760 All right.

00:05:22.840 South Korea, there's an entity there

00:05:26.640 that has a fusion reactor that has done its thing for 30 seconds.

00:05:32.960 Apparently, in November,

00:05:36.180 they successfully sustained fusion for 30 seconds.

00:05:40.200 Now, you might say to yourself,

00:05:42.060 Scott, I'm not impressed.

00:05:44.220 That's only 30 seconds.

00:05:45.560 How is that going to help us?

00:05:47.200 Well, I'm not 100% sure this is true.

00:05:51.860 But it feels to me like a confirmation of something I told you

00:05:55.820 maybe five years ago,

00:05:58.260 that fusion had already been reduced

00:06:01.000 from a scientific problem to an engineering problem.

00:06:06.260 The significance of that is that engineering problems

00:06:08.880 almost always get solved.

00:06:12.080 A scientific problem, well, maybe not, you know,

00:06:15.320 because that's pretty basic.

00:06:16.860 Like, maybe we can, you know,

00:06:19.540 make an anti-gravity machine, but maybe not, right?

00:06:24.260 But when you get to the point

00:06:25.400 where you can maintain something for 30 seconds,

00:06:28.480 you are past the theoretical part.

00:06:31.000 That was the hard part.

00:06:34.820 A hard part meaning unpredictable,

00:06:37.000 whether you can do it or not.

00:06:38.860 But in terms of whether you can now engineer it

00:06:41.360 to be more than 30 seconds

00:06:43.060 and become economically viable,

00:06:46.140 that becomes a good bet.

00:06:49.060 So you just went from fusion being a flying car,

00:06:53.340 coming next year, kind of perpetual joke,

00:06:57.380 to, would you bet against it now?

00:07:01.000 Would you bet against fusion

00:07:02.220 if you knew they'd done it for 30 seconds?

00:07:04.280 The thing that was considered impossible?

00:07:08.140 I don't know.

00:07:08.840 This seems like really good news,

00:07:10.500 and it's not the only fusion entity

00:07:13.440 that's getting results.

00:07:14.980 So this is probably the biggest thing,

00:07:18.700 maybe the biggest thing in civilization right now.

00:07:22.640 Is that too big?

00:07:24.380 Can I say that?

00:07:25.700 That the, what's coming in fusion,

00:07:27.940 well, maybe robots or AI.

00:07:30.320 Yeah, robots, AI,

00:07:31.640 they're probably as big or bigger.

00:07:34.220 All right, you know,

00:07:35.600 do you remember Tucker Carlson's weird theory

00:07:38.060 that I have mocked in the past

00:07:40.780 because I couldn't understand it,

00:07:42.500 which was that the Democrats will always accuse you

00:07:45.740 of the exact thing they're doing.

00:07:48.660 Now, I always mocked that

00:07:50.520 because I thought,

00:07:51.200 well, that's just a coincidence,

00:07:53.060 and it's just really,

00:07:54.440 it looks that way

00:07:55.340 because both sides

00:07:56.460 accuse everybody of everything, right?

00:08:00.460 So if you selectively decide

00:08:02.420 what you're going to look at,

00:08:03.940 it would look like Democrats

00:08:05.880 are accusing you of what they're doing,

00:08:07.560 but from their perspective,

00:08:09.580 it would look the opposite,

00:08:10.500 and really there's nothing there.

00:08:13.640 That was my original opinion.

00:08:16.340 I have modified my opinion

00:08:17.960 because there is a mechanism

00:08:20.380 that would explain it as a strategy

00:08:25.820 because you ask yourself,

00:08:28.360 what's up with the fact that it appears,

00:08:30.440 it appears like they do, in fact,

00:08:32.460 the Democrats,

00:08:33.000 do in fact blame the Republicans

00:08:35.920 for their own crimes.

00:08:37.280 Now, could it be coincidence?

00:08:40.280 Could it be selective perception?

00:08:43.300 Could it be just politics?

00:08:46.440 Could it be projection

00:08:47.480 where they don't know they're doing it?

00:08:50.060 Like, literally,

00:08:50.700 they don't know they're doing it.

00:08:52.460 That would be projection.

00:08:54.280 But you can't rule out a strategy, right?

00:08:59.320 But if it's a strategy,

00:09:00.820 how the hell does it work?

00:09:02.200 Like, how does that work?

00:09:03.840 And that's the part I think I figured out,

00:09:05.460 and let me explain it to you.

00:09:07.740 Suppose you knew you were going to do an evil thing.

00:09:10.400 It doesn't matter what it is.

00:09:11.920 We'll fill in some examples later.

00:09:14.220 But let's say you had just decided,

00:09:15.780 I'm going to do evil thing A,

00:09:18.040 whatever A is.

00:09:20.120 And how would you make sure you covered it up?

00:09:23.980 You would start by accusing your opponent

00:09:25.720 of doing that evil thing.

00:09:27.120 Let me give you an example.

00:09:29.060 Suppose you heard the following story.

00:09:35.400 That somebody accused me

00:09:37.080 of stealing some diamonds

00:09:40.980 from somebody's house.

00:09:44.120 And let's say you don't know me,

00:09:45.440 so I'm just a random person.

00:09:46.800 So I've been accused of stealing diamonds

00:09:48.960 from somebody's house.

00:09:51.540 And I say, in response,

00:09:53.700 that's not what happened.

00:09:54.620 You stole my diamonds.

00:09:55.840 You're the stealer of diamonds, not me.

00:10:00.560 Which one do you believe?

00:10:02.280 Do you believe the first one

00:10:03.880 who's accused of stealing diamonds?

00:10:06.300 Or do you believe the one who said,

00:10:08.140 that's not what happened.

00:10:09.540 You stole the diamonds from me.

00:10:12.940 Your bias is for the first accusation.

00:10:16.120 Because first impressions are sticky

00:10:18.320 in any context.

00:10:20.840 Whatever is the first idea you get in your head,

00:10:22.860 it's hard to get it out.

00:10:23.720 So if somebody says,

00:10:25.480 Scott, you stole my diamonds,

00:10:27.980 my protest that, no, in fact,

00:10:30.480 in reality, you stole my diamonds,

00:10:32.960 it doesn't matter if it's true.

00:10:35.280 People can't see it.

00:10:37.000 It'll be invisible.

00:10:38.580 It's like a cloak of invisibility.

00:10:41.100 And so if you can get the media

00:10:42.760 to support your narrative,

00:10:45.320 that in fact it's the opponents

00:10:47.380 who are doing the crime,

00:10:49.080 it becomes a cognitive blindness

00:10:52.100 for their base.

00:10:53.100 What would be an example of this?

00:10:57.880 Russia collusion.

00:10:59.740 Right, Russia collusion.

00:11:01.400 The best example.

00:11:02.940 We know for sure

00:11:04.080 that the Clinton campaign

00:11:06.560 colluded with foreign elements

00:11:08.380 to overthrow, essentially,

00:11:12.260 the will of the people.

00:11:14.340 We know that for sure.

00:11:16.040 I don't even think there's any part of that

00:11:18.280 that's in dispute by the left or the right.

00:11:20.440 And yet, we're completely inactive about it.

00:11:25.380 What?

00:11:26.500 How could that possibly be?

00:11:28.720 And it's because this works.

00:11:31.020 It's because they accused Trump,

00:11:33.640 which allowed them to hide the fact

00:11:35.380 that they were doing it themselves.

00:11:37.220 The first impression was sticky,

00:11:38.740 so there's even a name for Russia collusion.

00:11:41.700 But the thing that they were doing

00:11:43.520 doesn't even have a name.

00:11:45.700 Right?

00:11:46.400 One of them got a brand and a name

00:11:48.480 and a year of coverage.

00:11:50.620 The other one doesn't even have a way

00:11:52.440 to refer to it.

00:11:53.320 And yet, it's completely true.

00:11:56.160 Objectively, researchably, factually true.

00:12:01.160 Right?

00:12:02.080 And the media created the narrative.

00:12:04.140 And now, even though some portion

00:12:08.000 of the country understands what happened,

00:12:11.160 we don't act on it.

00:12:13.000 Because if the media is acting like it's not real,

00:12:15.820 and that includes, you know,

00:12:17.760 even Fox News being silent on some stuff,

00:12:20.840 if nobody else is treating it as a big deal,

00:12:23.960 it's hard for you to do it.

00:12:25.720 But if the media tells you

00:12:27.220 it's the biggest problem in the world,

00:12:28.500 then suddenly you're all activated.

00:12:30.460 Like, you're going to protest

00:12:31.960 and you're going to tweet

00:12:32.980 and stuff like this.

00:12:34.820 But if they don't tell you it's important,

00:12:37.360 you'll actually act like it isn't.

00:12:40.400 You might know intellectually it's important.

00:12:42.760 It's really important.

00:12:43.600 But your body won't do anything.

00:12:46.600 You'll just go to work.

00:12:48.400 You'll just do the same thing

00:12:49.440 you were going to do before.

00:12:51.320 So, right now we're watching Joe Biden

00:12:54.120 talking about voting rights.

00:12:59.960 What do you think is really happening?

00:13:03.740 Am I right?

00:13:05.060 The real story is that Mark Goliath,

00:13:07.680 the lawyer on the Democrat side,

00:13:09.660 did a really good job.

00:13:11.580 And I'm going to give him

00:13:12.700 just a solid compliment.

00:13:14.220 This won't be a criticism.

00:13:16.000 Because he used the legal system

00:13:17.900 opportunistically with other people

00:13:20.100 to create an election situation,

00:13:24.280 which I understand to be completely legal.

00:13:27.000 I mean, the Republicans

00:13:27.980 could have taken advantage

00:13:29.220 of a similar thing in a different way

00:13:31.620 if they had.

00:13:32.580 It would have been legal.

00:13:33.480 So, through completely legal means,

00:13:38.080 the Democrats have gamed the system

00:13:40.220 to advantage.

00:13:41.800 They wouldn't want you to know that.

00:13:44.100 Right?

00:13:44.460 They wouldn't want you to concentrate on it.

00:13:46.800 So, instead,

00:13:47.620 all of the attention is on this voting rights thing

00:13:50.040 because it ties into racial politics.

00:13:54.480 And it's a perfect distraction

00:13:57.300 for whatever they may or may not

00:13:59.500 be planning to do

00:14:00.520 in this upcoming election.

00:14:02.960 So, if they can make the only narrative

00:14:05.060 that you care about,

00:14:06.580 voting rights,

00:14:08.620 effectively accusing the opponent

00:14:10.600 of being the one

00:14:11.400 who's gaming the system

00:14:12.600 in the inappropriate way,

00:14:15.720 once that becomes the narrative,

00:14:17.980 it doesn't matter what they do

00:14:19.520 to the elections upcoming.

00:14:21.760 You're going to be blind to it.

00:14:23.180 Because the thing in your mind

00:14:26.280 is that Republicans

00:14:27.300 are trying to suppress a vote.

00:14:30.200 Now, forget about the fact

00:14:31.440 that the argument

00:14:32.900 that Republicans

00:14:33.840 are trying to suppress votes

00:14:35.760 is close to ridiculous

00:14:37.720 if you're talking about things

00:14:39.940 like requiring an identification.

00:14:44.340 I mean,

00:14:45.240 I think we could all just laugh

00:14:47.340 at that one, right?

00:14:49.120 Like, almost every other element

00:14:51.420 of society

00:14:52.320 that has any importance

00:14:53.640 whatsoever

00:14:54.240 from driving a car

00:14:56.040 to attending college

00:14:57.240 to anything.

00:15:00.140 Pretty much anything.

00:15:01.300 You need identification.

00:15:03.060 So, to imagine

00:15:03.660 that this would be the exception

00:15:05.000 is just truly absurd.

00:15:07.420 All right?

00:15:07.740 Truly absurd.

00:15:08.800 But it doesn't matter.

00:15:10.200 As long as it's your first impression,

00:15:12.240 as long as the media narrative

00:15:14.380 keeps pushing it,

00:15:16.140 you will be cognitively blind

00:15:18.060 to anything they do

00:15:19.300 with shenanigans in the election.

00:15:20.720 Now, let me stop short

00:15:24.960 of conspiracy theory

00:15:26.240 and say that I don't know

00:15:28.620 that this is any

00:15:30.060 intentional strategy by anybody.

00:15:33.400 Like, I don't know that.

00:15:35.220 I'm just saying

00:15:35.840 if you look at the possibilities,

00:15:37.700 you can't rule this one out

00:15:39.200 because it works every time.

00:15:42.500 It's a little bit obvious.

00:15:44.380 I mean, it took me a while

00:15:45.500 to get there,

00:15:46.140 but if you worked in this domain,

00:15:48.560 it probably would have been

00:15:49.320 a little more obvious, I guess,

00:15:50.860 if you were a political operative.

00:15:53.200 You know, I would imagine

00:15:53.960 a skilled political operative

00:15:56.020 would just automatically

00:15:57.320 know to do this.

00:15:58.840 It took me a while

00:15:59.660 to figure it out.

00:16:00.820 But that doesn't mean

00:16:01.600 it's intentional.

00:16:02.500 It could actually be projection.

00:16:04.100 It could be coincidence.

00:16:05.440 It could be selective memory.

00:16:07.520 Who knows?

00:16:09.100 All right.

00:16:10.240 One of the stories

00:16:11.220 that Democrats think

00:16:12.480 is important is weird.

00:16:14.280 And it's the fact that

00:16:16.480 on January 6th of last year,

00:16:21.220 Laura Ingram was texting

00:16:22.900 the White House with advice

00:16:24.480 on basically de-escalating

00:16:26.820 the protests.

00:16:28.780 And I saw, you know,

00:16:30.140 a tweet by Nick Walden-Poublon.

00:16:34.520 And he's saying that

00:16:37.900 Laura Ingram texted Mark Meadows

00:16:40.340 telling the White House

00:16:42.460 how to respond to the,

00:16:43.500 oh, it was about the aftermath,

00:16:45.120 how to respond to the aftermath

00:16:46.420 of the insurrection,

00:16:47.760 like she was a White House counselor.

00:16:50.660 And then he goes on to say,

00:16:52.020 can you imagine how enraged

00:16:53.640 the right would be

00:16:54.640 if they found out

00:16:55.940 Rachel Maddow

00:16:56.740 was texting the White House

00:16:58.100 on how to deal

00:16:59.320 with major world events?

00:17:02.440 Let me add some context here.

00:17:05.080 There's some, like,

00:17:05.620 seriously missing context.

00:17:07.040 First of all,

00:17:08.920 if I heard that

00:17:09.760 a Democratic administration

00:17:11.780 had gotten advice

00:17:12.840 from Rachel Maddow

00:17:13.940 about how to deal

00:17:15.340 with public relations,

00:17:16.920 I would have said,

00:17:18.060 that's good advice.

00:17:20.380 Wouldn't you?

00:17:22.200 I mean,

00:17:22.980 wouldn't Rachel Maddow

00:17:24.060 be a perfect source of advice

00:17:27.560 for how public opinion

00:17:30.360 would be formed

00:17:31.280 around any situation in politics?

00:17:34.300 Now, no, hold on.

00:17:36.460 You can say

00:17:37.120 you don't like her advice,

00:17:39.020 but I'm saying,

00:17:39.600 wouldn't it be

00:17:39.980 the most normal thing

00:17:41.100 that somebody who works

00:17:42.640 at the highest level

00:17:43.820 in that exact field

00:17:45.340 forming public opinion

00:17:47.200 about political stuff,

00:17:48.860 if that's the person

00:17:50.060 that was asked

00:17:50.980 or even just offered advice,

00:17:53.420 I would think

00:17:54.580 that was appropriate.

00:17:55.900 I wouldn't necessarily think

00:17:57.420 the advice was good,

00:17:58.900 but I would think

00:17:59.620 it was perfectly appropriate

00:18:00.820 to listen to somebody

00:18:02.060 with that level

00:18:03.260 of intelligence

00:18:03.940 and experience

00:18:04.960 in that exact job.

00:18:07.380 So when I hear

00:18:08.100 that there's something weird

00:18:09.920 about Laura Ingram

00:18:11.120 texting Mark Meadows

00:18:13.000 about how to handle

00:18:14.180 the aftermath,

00:18:15.420 which I assume means

00:18:16.140 the politics

00:18:17.640 and the public relations of it,

00:18:19.700 who would be better than that?

00:18:22.340 I mean, seriously.

00:18:24.420 Like, if you were going

00:18:25.200 to put together

00:18:26.060 the master group

00:18:28.420 of best people

00:18:31.020 you could ever

00:18:31.540 get advice from

00:18:32.400 in this exact situation,

00:18:35.220 how to handle

00:18:35.780 the politics

00:18:36.480 of a tough

00:18:37.940 political situation,

00:18:40.180 don't you want somebody

00:18:41.060 who's exactly

00:18:41.740 Laura Ingram?

00:18:43.800 Sean Hannity?

00:18:47.180 Wouldn't you want

00:18:47.760 to hear from Sean Hannity

00:18:48.800 on that question?

00:18:50.400 Like, if you didn't want

00:18:51.240 to hear from the very people

00:18:52.260 who are at the top

00:18:53.640 of the field,

00:18:54.800 who the hell

00:18:55.860 are you talking to?

00:18:56.600 Now, here's some more context

00:18:58.960 that I don't know

00:18:59.860 that the left knows.

00:19:02.060 I think a lot of you

00:19:03.000 know it.

00:19:04.300 The Trump administration

00:19:05.560 was fantastically good,

00:19:08.680 and we'll never get credit

00:19:09.860 for this,

00:19:10.760 at collecting input

00:19:13.080 outside their bubble.

00:19:15.420 Did everybody know that?

00:19:17.500 Trump in particular,

00:19:19.120 and then I think

00:19:19.720 that maybe that culture

00:19:21.660 spread out.

00:19:23.200 Now, some of it was

00:19:24.000 because he was inexperienced

00:19:25.360 at being a politician.

00:19:26.600 I think.

00:19:27.940 But some of it

00:19:28.800 was just smart.

00:19:30.360 Because one of the things

00:19:31.420 that nobody criticized

00:19:32.960 Trump for,

00:19:34.000 correct me if I'm wrong,

00:19:35.460 but even his critics

00:19:36.520 do not criticize him

00:19:37.860 for this,

00:19:38.820 which is taking advice

00:19:39.980 from a lot of different sources.

00:19:41.460 Am I right?

00:19:43.240 I don't believe

00:19:44.100 he's ever been criticized

00:19:44.980 for that.

00:19:46.700 I think that he's

00:19:47.680 generally considered

00:19:48.580 someone who listens,

00:19:50.800 genuinely listens,

00:19:52.020 like everybody

00:19:52.580 who's given him advice

00:19:53.540 says the same thing,

00:19:54.380 pretty much universally.

00:19:56.440 And I will tell you

00:19:57.140 the same thing as well,

00:19:58.380 because I got to speak

00:19:59.620 to him personally,

00:20:01.340 and I can confirm

00:20:03.260 he absolutely listened

00:20:05.760 attentively to what I was saying

00:20:08.340 and gave it its full due.

00:20:11.520 You know,

00:20:11.660 I had a different opinion

00:20:12.500 in a case or two,

00:20:14.080 but gave my opinion

00:20:15.260 its full due.

00:20:15.920 Now I'm sure

00:20:17.860 that he treats

00:20:18.640 other people

00:20:19.080 the same way.

00:20:20.680 So,

00:20:22.140 and I am also aware

00:20:23.380 that even pundits,

00:20:26.560 such as myself,

00:20:28.060 were routinely contacted

00:20:29.880 by the administration

00:20:30.860 for opinions

00:20:32.520 as they were just

00:20:34.300 reaching out

00:20:34.840 to collect lots

00:20:35.600 of different opinions.

00:20:37.300 Now did everybody

00:20:37.920 know that?

00:20:39.260 I'm not going to name names,

00:20:40.840 but you could make

00:20:41.780 some educated guesses.

00:20:43.640 You know,

00:20:43.880 the blue checks

00:20:44.840 on Twitter

00:20:45.360 that were

00:20:46.880 maybe Trump-friendly.

00:20:48.460 You don't think

00:20:49.100 that they were contacted

00:20:50.040 on a regular basis

00:20:51.580 to get their input

00:20:53.220 about how to handle

00:20:54.080 a thing?

00:20:55.120 Of course,

00:20:55.680 it happened all the time.

00:20:56.660 It was the most normal

00:20:57.500 thing in the world.

00:20:58.620 Now I don't know

00:20:59.160 if it happens

00:20:59.620 with other administrations.

00:21:01.640 I'd never been,

00:21:02.760 you know,

00:21:03.140 involved in any part

00:21:04.140 of that before.

00:21:06.040 Well,

00:21:06.500 with one exception,

00:21:07.260 I guess.

00:21:10.020 Yeah.

00:21:10.860 So,

00:21:11.260 can we say

00:21:14.580 at this point

00:21:15.200 with certainty

00:21:15.880 that Antifa,

00:21:17.720 BLM,

00:21:18.440 and even

00:21:18.960 Occupy Wall Street,

00:21:20.840 in terms of

00:21:21.780 their protest activities,

00:21:23.640 not in terms

00:21:24.220 of their existence,

00:21:25.940 but in terms

00:21:26.420 of their protest energy,

00:21:28.300 that was all fake,

00:21:29.380 wasn't it?

00:21:30.880 Can we say that

00:21:31.820 now just as a fact?

00:21:34.360 Because nothing changed.

00:21:36.820 They didn't get anything.

00:21:37.880 I mean,

00:21:39.820 there are a few cities

00:21:40.700 that defunded the police,

00:21:42.860 but, you know,

00:21:43.780 not to the extent

00:21:44.560 that any of them

00:21:45.140 would be happy about it.

00:21:46.820 Do you think

00:21:47.360 that the police

00:21:48.180 stopped shooting

00:21:50.140 black citizens

00:21:51.500 during arrests?

00:21:54.760 Did that happen?

00:21:56.520 Or is it possible

00:21:58.100 we're just not

00:21:58.740 hearing about it?

00:22:00.140 Now,

00:22:00.360 it is possible

00:22:00.960 that they just,

00:22:02.320 you know,

00:22:02.720 that they actually

00:22:03.660 changed their behavior.

00:22:05.380 It's possible.

00:22:06.080 I kind of doubt it

00:22:08.420 because most of the cases

00:22:09.860 that we've heard about

00:22:10.700 seem like genuine mistakes.

00:22:13.320 In my opinion,

00:22:14.620 most of the

00:22:15.420 high-profile cases,

00:22:17.360 they just seem like mistakes.

00:22:19.480 So do mistakes

00:22:20.380 stop happening?

00:22:22.080 Because they all seem

00:22:23.060 like different kinds

00:22:24.020 of mistakes.

00:22:24.780 You know,

00:22:25.180 they were all one-offs.

00:22:26.540 I don't know

00:22:27.220 how you get rid

00:22:28.220 of one-off mistakes

00:22:29.540 because that's what

00:22:30.700 makes them one-offs.

00:22:32.780 So,

00:22:33.520 I feel as if

00:22:34.940 we can say this

00:22:35.740 as just a fact

00:22:36.740 as opposed to

00:22:38.160 a conspiracy theory

00:22:39.560 that if nothing

00:22:41.300 really is fundamentally

00:22:42.640 stopped,

00:22:43.680 but the protesting

00:22:44.680 stopped as soon

00:22:45.760 as the elections,

00:22:46.800 you know,

00:22:47.600 started to go

00:22:48.320 a certain way.

00:22:50.680 I don't know.

00:22:51.160 It looks fake to me.

00:22:52.660 It looks like

00:22:53.180 there was outside funding

00:22:54.260 that,

00:22:55.100 or even inside funding.

00:22:56.580 So I guess

00:23:00.820 Rachel Maddow,

00:23:01.600 to speak of her again,

00:23:02.600 has some kind

00:23:03.140 of story about

00:23:03.940 Mark Meadows

00:23:05.820 being,

00:23:06.980 quote,

00:23:07.340 tied to

00:23:08.400 forged election

00:23:09.560 documents.

00:23:10.840 Tied to them.

00:23:12.380 What are some

00:23:13.160 of the other tweets

00:23:14.180 on this same topic

00:23:15.420 and what kind

00:23:16.040 of language

00:23:16.600 do they use

00:23:17.520 for this story

00:23:18.960 that's totally true?

00:23:21.560 Here are some

00:23:22.160 of the language

00:23:23.040 I pulled out

00:23:23.680 of tweets

00:23:24.220 that Mark Meadows,

00:23:28.300 that there's

00:23:30.180 some information

00:23:30.800 that, quote,

00:23:31.720 suggests some

00:23:32.700 involvement in

00:23:33.740 forged documents.

00:23:37.320 Also that Rachel Maddow

00:23:39.020 put the pieces

00:23:40.480 together

00:23:41.080 and also

00:23:45.040 connects to

00:23:46.460 and involved in.

00:23:49.820 So Mark Meadows

00:23:50.720 might be

00:23:51.440 tied to

00:23:52.700 involved in

00:23:53.840 there was

00:23:55.800 a suggestion

00:23:56.420 of some

00:23:56.840 involvement

00:23:57.360 possibly connected

00:23:59.460 to.

00:24:01.280 Those are all

00:24:02.440 like glaring

00:24:03.400 signals for

00:24:04.220 fake news.

00:24:06.100 Am I right?

00:24:07.960 All that

00:24:08.780 indirect

00:24:09.460 connection

00:24:11.180 stuff.

00:24:12.380 Now I'm not

00:24:13.080 saying there's

00:24:13.640 nothing there

00:24:14.280 because

00:24:14.920 who knows?

00:24:17.220 Right?

00:24:17.480 Sometimes

00:24:17.960 accusations are

00:24:18.860 true.

00:24:19.640 So I don't

00:24:20.200 know what is

00:24:20.700 true.

00:24:21.500 I'm just saying

00:24:22.120 that if you

00:24:22.540 were going to

00:24:22.880 look for a

00:24:23.400 story that

00:24:23.920 on its

00:24:24.460 surface

00:24:24.980 at first

00:24:26.180 glance

00:24:26.720 looked like

00:24:27.240 bullshit,

00:24:28.660 this would

00:24:29.100 be it.

00:24:30.200 Because it's

00:24:31.020 this kind

00:24:31.560 of language

00:24:32.300 that really,

00:24:34.040 really signals

00:24:34.780 bullshit.

00:24:36.500 Yeah,

00:24:36.740 there's ties

00:24:37.620 to it.

00:24:38.840 Do you know

00:24:39.340 what else

00:24:39.680 Mark Meadows

00:24:40.440 has ties to

00:24:41.840 or maybe

00:24:43.520 some involvement

00:24:44.620 in or is

00:24:46.160 maybe connected

00:24:47.520 to?

00:24:47.960 everything that

00:24:50.400 happened in

00:24:52.340 the Republican

00:24:52.920 world.

00:24:55.020 If you're the

00:24:55.820 chief of

00:24:56.220 staff or

00:24:57.600 you have

00:24:57.840 some high

00:24:58.760 end position

00:24:59.460 in the

00:24:59.780 administration,

00:25:00.980 you're tied

00:25:01.920 to everything,

00:25:03.320 either directly

00:25:03.920 or indirectly.

00:25:05.640 So this one

00:25:06.780 doesn't seem

00:25:07.260 like it's

00:25:07.620 anything.

00:25:09.440 All right,

00:25:10.060 you should be

00:25:10.520 following in a

00:25:11.340 Twitter account

00:25:12.080 of ethical

00:25:14.120 skeptic.

00:25:15.340 So just look

00:25:15.960 for that

00:25:16.320 ethical skeptic.

00:25:18.660 And I would

00:25:19.720 like to call

00:25:20.240 out an amazing

00:25:21.260 visualization

00:25:22.040 that he did.

00:25:23.880 He does a lot

00:25:24.460 of great data

00:25:25.100 visualization stuff.

00:25:26.400 But I'm such

00:25:27.300 a data

00:25:27.720 visualization

00:25:28.220 nerd that 0.88

00:25:29.660 when I see

00:25:30.140 somebody do

00:25:30.800 like a

00:25:31.240 spectacular job

00:25:32.700 of it where

00:25:33.160 you can really

00:25:33.800 see what at

00:25:35.880 least the

00:25:36.420 message is.

00:25:37.140 Who knows

00:25:37.700 about the

00:25:38.080 data, but

00:25:38.660 you can at

00:25:39.120 least see what

00:25:39.480 the message

00:25:39.820 was.

00:25:40.780 And his

00:25:42.480 take on it

00:25:43.100 is this.

00:25:43.600 I'll just

00:25:43.860 read it.

00:25:44.760 He said,

00:25:45.140 so if

00:25:45.620 Omicron

00:25:46.160 with a

00:25:46.680 7.7

00:25:47.760 death rate

00:25:48.460 versus Delta,

00:25:49.780 that means

00:25:50.300 for every

00:25:50.860 100 people

00:25:52.520 who would

00:25:52.940 die of

00:25:53.280 Delta,

00:25:53.860 you'd only

00:25:54.160 get less

00:25:54.960 than 8%

00:25:55.580 would die

00:25:56.240 of Omicron.

00:25:57.560 I believe

00:25:58.120 he said

00:25:58.520 that came

00:25:59.000 from the

00:25:59.680 South African

00:26:01.000 numbers.

00:26:02.520 How accurate

00:26:03.080 is the

00:26:03.720 South African

00:26:04.340 experience

00:26:05.480 and their

00:26:06.300 data?

00:26:07.500 Don't know,

00:26:08.620 but it's

00:26:09.400 what he had.

00:26:09.960 So take

00:26:11.520 that as

00:26:12.420 an assumption

00:26:14.420 that you

00:26:15.120 could be

00:26:15.520 questioned.

00:26:16.640 But if you

00:26:17.340 take that

00:26:17.740 assumption,

00:26:18.440 this is what

00:26:19.360 he worked

00:26:19.640 out.

00:26:21.080 So he

00:26:21.600 says Omicron

00:26:22.380 has been the

00:26:23.080 predominant

00:26:23.700 variant for

00:26:24.660 three weeks

00:26:25.280 now.

00:26:25.940 And the

00:26:26.180 average day

00:26:27.300 of death

00:26:27.960 is day

00:26:29.200 18 after

00:26:30.540 detection.

00:26:31.440 So after

00:26:31.820 you detected

00:26:32.880 with the

00:26:33.220 virus,

00:26:34.100 18 days

00:26:34.720 later on

00:26:35.200 average,

00:26:35.580 that's when

00:26:35.920 you're going

00:26:36.340 to die, 0.52

00:26:36.700 if you're

00:26:37.060 going to

00:26:37.240 die.

00:26:37.400 Then he

00:26:38.940 says then

00:26:39.340 we should

00:26:39.640 see a

00:26:40.000 fallen

00:26:40.280 death

00:26:40.660 next week

00:26:41.480 or

00:26:42.280 something

00:26:43.300 is not

00:26:43.840 right.

00:26:44.960 Now the

00:26:45.240 something

00:26:45.520 that's not

00:26:45.960 right could

00:26:46.820 be the

00:26:47.160 assumption

00:26:47.540 about

00:26:48.300 Omicron,

00:26:49.340 right?

00:26:49.920 But it

00:26:50.500 also could

00:26:51.000 be something

00:26:52.320 else and

00:26:53.580 who knows

00:26:54.440 what.

00:26:56.160 But if

00:26:57.160 this prediction

00:26:59.060 is right,

00:27:00.200 it would mean

00:27:00.720 February 1st

00:27:01.660 is starting

00:27:02.100 to look

00:27:02.480 good for

00:27:04.160 a back

00:27:04.940 off of

00:27:05.540 mandates and

00:27:06.460 restrictions.

00:27:07.400 Because if

00:27:08.980 things are

00:27:09.440 heading down

00:27:10.180 for a

00:27:12.060 week or

00:27:12.400 two and

00:27:12.860 we know

00:27:13.240 why,

00:27:15.060 if things

00:27:15.900 are heading

00:27:16.220 down and

00:27:17.000 we know

00:27:17.400 why,

00:27:18.620 and it

00:27:18.920 looks like

00:27:19.360 that should

00:27:19.980 continue,

00:27:21.060 then the

00:27:21.420 argument for

00:27:22.040 any kind of

00:27:22.520 restrictions

00:27:22.920 just falls

00:27:23.660 apart.

00:27:24.120 I mean,

00:27:24.480 arguably it's

00:27:25.580 already fallen

00:27:26.100 apart,

00:27:27.120 you would

00:27:27.520 say.

00:27:28.740 You know

00:27:29.360 what would

00:27:29.540 be the

00:27:29.780 handiest

00:27:30.120 thing?

00:27:30.660 I would

00:27:31.020 love if

00:27:31.640 everybody's

00:27:32.180 hallucination

00:27:32.800 had a

00:27:33.140 URL,

00:27:34.780 because so

00:27:35.240 many people

00:27:35.740 talk to me

00:27:36.360 about their

00:27:36.780 hallucinations,

00:27:38.440 usually I'm

00:27:39.160 in them,

00:27:40.020 and I can't

00:27:40.960 really see

00:27:41.360 them.

00:27:42.260 It would

00:27:42.540 help me a

00:27:42.980 lot if we

00:27:43.560 just had a

00:27:44.020 URL for

00:27:44.640 that,

00:27:45.100 and I

00:27:45.540 could just

00:27:45.900 connect

00:27:46.220 directly to

00:27:46.840 your

00:27:47.000 hallucination.

00:27:48.160 I believe

00:27:48.680 this is

00:27:49.080 possible with

00:27:50.520 Elon Musk's

00:27:51.700 company,

00:27:52.560 Neuralink.

00:27:54.220 I believe

00:27:54.580 that someday

00:27:55.160 somebody will

00:27:56.500 say,

00:27:56.880 let me tell

00:27:58.400 you what I

00:27:58.820 think about

00:27:59.280 your prediction,

00:28:00.100 Scott,

00:28:00.440 and I'll

00:28:00.740 say,

00:28:01.060 hold on,

00:28:01.680 hold on,

00:28:02.300 I can't

00:28:02.840 see your

00:28:03.300 hallucination,

00:28:03.920 can you

00:28:04.840 send that

00:28:05.340 link,

00:28:05.800 and then

00:28:06.120 they'd

00:28:06.400 use their

00:28:06.800 Neuralink to

00:28:07.400 Neuralink,

00:28:08.360 probably through

00:28:09.120 Starlink,

00:28:12.160 and then I

00:28:13.580 would see

00:28:13.860 directly,

00:28:14.600 they'd just

00:28:14.980 send the

00:28:15.280 URL,

00:28:15.900 and I'd

00:28:16.040 say,

00:28:16.240 oh,

00:28:16.540 yeah,

00:28:17.080 okay,

00:28:17.380 now I'm

00:28:17.740 in your

00:28:17.980 hallucination,

00:28:18.660 go on,

00:28:19.540 and then I

00:28:20.000 could listen

00:28:20.360 to it

00:28:20.640 appropriately.

00:28:22.180 Just an

00:28:22.900 idea.

00:28:24.500 Rasmussen

00:28:24.940 said that

00:28:25.700 Biden's

00:28:26.160 public

00:28:26.680 support,

00:28:27.580 his approval

00:28:28.140 is down

00:28:28.520 to 39%,

00:28:29.540 the lowest

00:28:30.040 ever.

00:28:30.960 I think it

00:28:31.360 was Quinnipac

00:28:32.000 that at

00:28:32.420 33%,

00:28:33.960 so Joe

00:28:34.720 not doing

00:28:35.180 so good,

00:28:37.080 but Rasmussen

00:28:38.540 also found

00:28:39.260 that Democratic

00:28:40.720 voters support

00:28:42.000 harsh measures

00:28:43.380 against the

00:28:44.020 unvaccinated,

00:28:46.620 and I'm

00:28:49.060 thinking,

00:28:50.000 how many

00:28:51.120 times have

00:28:51.600 I told you

00:28:52.180 that if

00:28:53.760 you want

00:28:54.100 to predict

00:28:54.480 the future,

00:28:55.880 just look

00:28:56.420 at the

00:28:56.700 insurance

00:28:57.160 industry,

00:28:58.620 because the

00:28:59.360 human beings

00:29:00.220 who are not

00:29:01.200 in that

00:29:01.480 industry

00:29:01.840 will be

00:29:02.260 yapping

00:29:02.560 and yapping

00:29:03.020 about what

00:29:03.920 you should

00:29:04.360 do and

00:29:05.140 what will

00:29:06.040 happen,

00:29:06.700 and yap,

00:29:07.040 yap,

00:29:07.260 yap,

00:29:07.600 and then the

00:29:08.240 insurance

00:29:08.640 industry just

00:29:09.460 says,

00:29:09.900 huh,

00:29:10.740 here's my

00:29:11.680 risk,

00:29:13.400 okay,

00:29:13.840 here's your

00:29:14.280 insurance policy

00:29:15.140 cost,

00:29:15.660 it just went

00:29:16.080 up 100%,

00:29:16.920 and then

00:29:18.060 everybody says,

00:29:19.360 oh,

00:29:20.600 and then

00:29:20.980 everything happens

00:29:21.740 because of

00:29:22.320 that,

00:29:23.720 and it will

00:29:24.160 turn out that

00:29:24.680 the only thing

00:29:25.360 that ever

00:29:25.740 mattered was

00:29:27.320 what the

00:29:27.640 insurance

00:29:28.000 companies

00:29:28.420 thought.

00:29:29.540 Like,

00:29:29.800 that's all

00:29:30.140 that ever

00:29:30.500 mattered,

00:29:30.880 and sometimes

00:29:32.160 you can just

00:29:32.720 say,

00:29:33.100 okay,

00:29:33.360 forget about

00:29:33.800 all the

00:29:34.120 yap,

00:29:34.400 yap,

00:29:34.660 yap,

00:29:35.500 what the

00:29:35.940 hell are

00:29:36.260 the insurance

00:29:36.760 companies going

00:29:37.440 to do?

00:29:38.340 Once we sort

00:29:39.260 of get out of

00:29:39.780 crisis,

00:29:40.480 pandemic mode,

00:29:41.460 which we're

00:29:41.800 doing,

00:29:42.880 what do they

00:29:43.620 settle on as

00:29:44.560 how they charge

00:29:45.220 people?

00:29:46.380 Well,

00:29:46.720 how about this?

00:29:48.140 If the insurance

00:29:48.940 companies have

00:29:49.740 data in a

00:29:51.160 competitive market

00:29:52.040 where you can get

00:29:52.740 your insurance

00:29:53.240 from whoever you

00:29:54.640 want,

00:29:55.400 and some of them

00:29:56.140 say,

00:29:56.440 you know,

00:29:56.640 we're going

00:29:56.940 to charge

00:29:57.320 more for

00:29:57.880 unvaccinated

00:29:58.800 people.

00:30:01.260 I say,

00:30:02.720 if they can

00:30:04.620 prove it,

00:30:06.320 it's okay

00:30:06.980 with me.

00:30:08.120 Now,

00:30:08.880 you're going

00:30:09.240 to say to

00:30:09.560 yourself,

00:30:09.920 Scott,

00:30:10.500 wait,

00:30:10.900 hold on.

00:30:11.920 Now you're

00:30:12.340 opening up

00:30:12.880 the Pandora's

00:30:13.800 box.

00:30:14.580 What about

00:30:14.960 smokers?

00:30:16.280 Right?

00:30:16.640 What about

00:30:17.000 drinkers?

00:30:17.740 What about

00:30:18.120 extreme sports

00:30:19.480 people?

00:30:20.260 What about

00:30:20.720 overweight

00:30:21.200 people?

00:30:22.700 Right?

00:30:23.540 What about

00:30:23.920 people who

00:30:24.340 don't exercise?

00:30:26.140 Here's the

00:30:26.700 thing.

00:30:28.080 You can't

00:30:28.900 prove any

00:30:29.380 of that

00:30:29.660 stuff easily.

00:30:31.500 Right?

00:30:32.000 There's no

00:30:32.840 practical way

00:30:33.980 to prove

00:30:34.420 any of that

00:30:34.900 stuff.

00:30:35.940 If you

00:30:36.660 could,

00:30:37.960 you would.

00:30:39.720 Right?

00:30:40.060 If you

00:30:40.340 could.

00:30:41.360 So the

00:30:42.040 things that

00:30:42.440 you can

00:30:42.780 prove would

00:30:43.340 be somebody's

00:30:43.960 age,

00:30:44.660 right?

00:30:45.540 You can

00:30:45.960 always prove

00:30:46.420 somebody's

00:30:46.840 age.

00:30:47.940 Do they

00:30:48.280 use age

00:30:49.020 to determine

00:30:49.840 insurance?

00:30:51.900 Yes,

00:30:52.380 they do.

00:30:53.300 Because you

00:30:54.000 can definitely

00:30:54.580 determine

00:30:55.000 somebody's

00:30:55.460 age.

00:30:55.740 There's

00:30:55.840 no

00:30:56.000 ambiguity.

00:30:57.120 How about

00:30:57.540 their,

00:30:58.760 well,

00:30:59.720 this one's

00:31:00.200 harder now.

00:31:01.400 How about

00:31:01.700 their sex? 0.78

00:31:04.100 Yeah,

00:31:04.620 their sex. 0.75

00:31:05.360 Now,

00:31:05.540 that was a

00:31:05.940 little ambiguous

00:31:06.540 because of

00:31:06.900 the trans,

00:31:07.420 but that's,

00:31:07.920 you know,

00:31:08.200 that's in

00:31:08.580 the noise.

00:31:10.840 Car

00:31:11.320 insurance

00:31:11.880 can be

00:31:13.260 based on

00:31:13.760 your gender

00:31:14.280 because,

00:31:14.980 for all

00:31:15.180 practical

00:31:15.620 purposes,

00:31:16.100 they can

00:31:16.520 be sure

00:31:16.980 what it

00:31:17.360 is.

00:31:18.260 Right?

00:31:19.000 If your

00:31:19.680 vaccination

00:31:20.120 status becomes

00:31:21.240 a matter of

00:31:21.880 public record,

00:31:22.900 well,

00:31:23.140 at least record,

00:31:24.000 that would

00:31:25.140 be something

00:31:25.560 that they

00:31:25.960 would know

00:31:26.300 for sure,

00:31:27.000 at least,

00:31:27.500 you know,

00:31:27.760 they'd have

00:31:28.060 data that

00:31:28.540 they could

00:31:28.780 rely on,

00:31:29.640 to say if

00:31:30.340 you were

00:31:30.600 vaccinated or

00:31:31.380 not.

00:31:32.420 So when

00:31:33.020 you say to

00:31:33.480 me,

00:31:34.220 Scott,

00:31:35.360 philosophically,

00:31:36.820 if you're

00:31:37.240 going to look

00:31:37.580 at whether

00:31:37.900 you're

00:31:38.120 vaccinated or

00:31:39.060 not,

00:31:39.780 you should

00:31:40.200 also

00:31:40.660 philosophically

00:31:41.580 be looking

00:31:42.060 at lifestyle

00:31:44.060 stuff.

00:31:44.680 And I say,

00:31:45.180 you're

00:31:45.380 completely

00:31:45.940 right.

00:31:46.400 if we

00:31:47.820 could,

00:31:48.820 they would.

00:31:50.060 But we

00:31:50.360 can't.

00:31:51.600 We can't.

00:31:52.720 It's just

00:31:53.120 impractical to

00:31:54.000 measure people's

00:31:54.680 weight and

00:31:55.140 all that.

00:31:55.860 You just

00:31:56.220 wouldn't be

00:31:56.760 able to

00:31:56.960 make a

00:31:57.240 market in

00:31:57.700 it.

00:31:58.540 So I'm

00:31:59.380 not saying

00:31:59.780 that they

00:32:00.140 should or

00:32:00.580 should not

00:32:01.120 do anything.

00:32:01.960 I'm saying

00:32:02.380 that they

00:32:02.780 will.

00:32:04.740 Hear me

00:32:05.780 clearly.

00:32:06.720 I'm not

00:32:07.160 saying that

00:32:07.740 insurance

00:32:08.120 companies should

00:32:09.680 or should

00:32:10.200 not do

00:32:10.820 anything.

00:32:11.540 I'm not

00:32:11.820 recommending it

00:32:12.700 or anything.

00:32:12.920 I'm just

00:32:13.480 predicting.

00:32:14.880 I'm

00:32:15.240 predicting if

00:32:15.900 anything that

00:32:16.640 they can

00:32:16.980 measure with

00:32:17.620 certainty,

00:32:19.020 it's probably

00:32:19.720 going to get

00:32:20.100 in their

00:32:20.300 numbers and

00:32:20.940 probably going

00:32:21.340 to get in

00:32:21.680 their cost

00:32:22.260 situation.

00:32:23.500 Now, if

00:32:23.820 you're saying

00:32:24.200 to me,

00:32:24.620 but Scott,

00:32:26.060 you've

00:32:26.500 forgotten that

00:32:27.640 there's also

00:32:28.640 a risk of

00:32:29.440 taking the

00:32:29.880 vaccination.

00:32:30.820 Am I

00:32:31.100 right?

00:32:32.080 There's an

00:32:32.540 unknown long

00:32:33.440 term medical

00:32:34.340 risk of

00:32:35.280 getting vaccinated

00:32:36.080 because there's

00:32:37.040 no way that

00:32:37.740 we've studied

00:32:38.440 it long term

00:32:39.240 because it's

00:32:39.900 only been

00:32:40.520 short term.

00:32:42.240 So,

00:32:42.920 what would

00:32:43.260 the insurance

00:32:43.740 companies do

00:32:44.360 with that?

00:32:46.120 I don't know.

00:32:47.720 But it doesn't

00:32:48.680 matter to my

00:32:49.260 point.

00:32:50.320 My point is

00:32:51.020 the insurance

00:32:51.540 companies will

00:32:52.100 decide what's

00:32:53.820 what.

00:32:55.260 You know,

00:32:55.640 ultimately the

00:32:56.800 mandates will go

00:32:57.620 away and it

00:32:58.500 will become an

00:32:59.280 insurance thing,

00:33:00.200 I think.

00:33:00.800 I think that's

00:33:01.400 where we're

00:33:01.700 heading.

00:33:03.360 Wall Street

00:33:04.040 Journal is

00:33:04.560 reporting that

00:33:05.340 China's got a 0.99

00:33:06.720 big problem.

00:33:07.400 So, I like the

00:33:08.640 way they frame

00:33:09.760 this.

00:33:10.020 So, China 0.56

00:33:12.320 has two

00:33:12.740 choices.

00:33:13.820 They can do

00:33:15.080 harsh lockdowns

00:33:16.880 to try to deal

00:33:17.560 with Omicron.

00:33:18.740 Which will?

00:33:19.620 Will they

00:33:19.980 succeed or

00:33:20.720 fail?

00:33:21.600 Harsh lockdowns

00:33:23.300 like they did

00:33:24.040 with Alpha and

00:33:24.800 Delta, but with

00:33:26.160 Omicron.

00:33:27.080 Will they

00:33:27.500 succeed or

00:33:28.240 fail?

00:33:29.180 We all think

00:33:29.920 they'll fail,

00:33:30.500 right?

00:33:31.240 Because Omicron is

00:33:32.140 just way too

00:33:32.860 spready.

00:33:33.400 So, they

00:33:35.120 have a strategy

00:33:35.860 that either

00:33:37.400 they let

00:33:38.700 Omicron rip

00:33:39.780 through the

00:33:40.220 China and

00:33:43.140 keep in mind

00:33:43.740 that they don't

00:33:44.180 have much

00:33:44.680 natural immunity

00:33:45.500 there.

00:33:45.920 They have

00:33:46.120 vaccinations,

00:33:46.920 but not

00:33:47.220 natural immunity.

00:33:48.660 So, Omicron

00:33:49.580 will rip

00:33:50.140 through their

00:33:50.520 vaccinations.

00:33:51.300 They already

00:33:51.600 know that.

00:33:52.240 They have

00:33:52.520 weak

00:33:52.820 vaccinations.

00:33:53.420 And that

00:33:55.000 would be a

00:33:56.120 terribly,

00:33:57.460 let's say,

00:33:58.440 an embarrassing

00:33:59.640 situation for

00:34:00.580 China.

00:34:00.900 So, one

00:34:02.720 strategy is

00:34:03.580 to don't

00:34:05.160 do lockdowns

00:34:06.060 and then

00:34:06.400 China's going 1.00

00:34:07.080 to get

00:34:07.320 widely infected

00:34:08.220 and it

00:34:08.980 will make

00:34:09.500 China look

00:34:10.080 like basically

00:34:11.000 idiots.

00:34:12.560 It will make

00:34:13.160 them look like

00:34:13.680 they failed

00:34:14.260 completely on

00:34:15.860 the virus.

00:34:17.440 But, suppose

00:34:18.280 they go the

00:34:18.760 other way,

00:34:19.320 option two,

00:34:20.580 drastic

00:34:21.520 shutdowns.

00:34:23.320 Then they're

00:34:23.800 going to have

00:34:24.120 drastic shutdowns

00:34:25.300 and lots of

00:34:27.060 Omicron, so

00:34:27.940 they'll fail

00:34:28.380 twice, right?

00:34:30.180 So, they

00:34:31.220 only have

00:34:31.580 two options,

00:34:33.220 drastic

00:34:33.620 lockdowns or

00:34:34.420 not, but

00:34:35.640 unlike America, 0.94

00:34:37.520 both of those

00:34:38.400 paths are a

00:34:39.040 failure for

00:34:39.580 them.

00:34:40.580 If America

00:34:41.440 said, let's

00:34:43.000 get rid of

00:34:43.460 our restrictions

00:34:44.080 and Omicron

00:34:45.460 went wild,

00:34:46.780 what would

00:34:47.240 we call

00:34:47.640 that?

00:34:49.040 Failure or

00:34:49.760 success?

00:34:50.740 If we

00:34:51.420 dropped our

00:34:51.900 mandates and

00:34:54.100 just let the

00:34:54.620 Omicron run,

00:34:56.600 would we call

00:34:57.500 it a success

00:34:58.120 or a failure

00:34:58.880 in America?

00:35:00.800 Probably a

00:35:01.440 success.

00:35:02.560 Because we

00:35:03.200 would say,

00:35:03.680 yeah, a lot

00:35:04.020 of people

00:35:04.280 had problems.

00:35:06.780 It did

00:35:07.460 ruin, you

00:35:08.520 know, our

00:35:08.960 supply chain

00:35:09.700 got degraded.

00:35:10.860 Yeah, all

00:35:11.280 those things

00:35:11.680 happened.

00:35:13.120 Sure enough.

00:35:14.160 But we

00:35:14.740 would still

00:35:15.120 say we

00:35:15.540 preferred it

00:35:16.160 because that

00:35:16.720 was the

00:35:16.980 choice we

00:35:17.420 made.

00:35:18.460 Whereas

00:35:18.780 China, since

00:35:20.160 they've sort

00:35:20.620 of pushed

00:35:20.960 this, we

00:35:21.920 are so

00:35:22.320 capable and

00:35:23.020 you are so

00:35:23.460 incompetent,

00:35:24.580 all we have

00:35:25.120 to do is

00:35:25.500 shut down and 0.78

00:35:26.180 we can control

00:35:26.940 it, but you

00:35:27.540 losers in the

00:35:28.660 West can't,

00:35:29.300 ha, ha, ha.

00:35:30.760 They're either

00:35:31.680 going to have

00:35:32.180 to eat crow

00:35:33.660 or bat,

00:35:35.480 they're either

00:35:35.820 going to have

00:35:36.180 to eat bat

00:35:36.920 like a lot

00:35:38.300 of bat,

00:35:38.920 or fail the

00:35:40.660 other way.

00:35:41.180 They only have

00:35:41.580 two paths for

00:35:42.140 failure.

00:35:42.960 So I always

00:35:43.740 used to say

00:35:44.260 that Trump

00:35:45.560 was all about

00:35:46.360 two ways to

00:35:47.580 win and no

00:35:48.120 ways to lose.

00:35:49.920 China accidentally 0.97

00:35:51.000 is in a situation

00:35:52.020 with only two

00:35:52.860 ways to lose.

00:35:53.860 they don't

00:35:55.120 even have a

00:35:55.920 winning option.

00:35:57.400 Am I wrong?

00:35:59.320 I'm not wrong,

00:36:00.320 right?

00:36:00.500 There is no

00:36:01.020 winning option.

00:36:02.420 They are in

00:36:03.100 trouble, at

00:36:04.360 least reputationally.

00:36:07.700 All right.

00:36:11.540 Somebody said

00:36:12.280 on Twitter that

00:36:13.340 they used their

00:36:14.800 gut instinct to

00:36:15.920 make a

00:36:16.200 vaccination

00:36:16.640 decision and

00:36:18.900 that they

00:36:20.000 trusted their

00:36:20.720 gut instinct

00:36:21.380 instinct because

00:36:22.220 it had done

00:36:23.340 well for them

00:36:23.960 in the past.

00:36:25.140 In other words,

00:36:25.680 their life had

00:36:26.260 worked out well

00:36:27.100 using gut

00:36:28.320 instinct.

00:36:31.160 I'm going to

00:36:31.740 try to do

00:36:32.220 the super

00:36:33.780 chats at the

00:36:34.380 end if I

00:36:34.820 remember and

00:36:35.440 I have time.

00:36:37.800 And I ask

00:36:38.560 this question.

00:36:39.140 If you think

00:36:39.620 you did well

00:36:40.240 with your gut

00:36:40.820 instinct,

00:36:42.260 what happens

00:36:43.380 if somebody

00:36:43.920 who did even

00:36:44.700 better with

00:36:45.460 their gut

00:36:45.900 instinct disagrees

00:36:47.600 with you?

00:36:48.900 What do you

00:36:49.280 do?

00:36:49.980 So if you

00:36:50.360 think your

00:36:51.100 gut instinct

00:36:51.900 is really

00:36:53.220 like a

00:36:53.860 valuable asset

00:36:54.940 and that's

00:36:55.520 what got

00:36:55.880 you where

00:36:56.220 you got,

00:36:57.620 but there's

00:36:58.180 somebody else

00:36:58.660 who used

00:36:59.020 their own

00:36:59.600 gut instinct

00:37:00.300 and did

00:37:01.140 even way

00:37:01.820 better,

00:37:03.260 what happens

00:37:03.820 if they

00:37:04.140 disagree with

00:37:04.800 you on the

00:37:05.160 next thing?

00:37:06.480 Do you go

00:37:06.980 with your

00:37:07.420 gut instinct,

00:37:08.200 which you

00:37:08.520 know to be

00:37:08.980 less good,

00:37:10.520 or at least

00:37:11.060 less successful,

00:37:13.340 or do you

00:37:14.320 go with the

00:37:14.660 other person's

00:37:15.240 gut instinct

00:37:15.860 who has

00:37:16.420 done better

00:37:17.060 at this?

00:37:19.280 It's a

00:37:19.900 hard standard.

00:37:21.100 So I

00:37:22.460 don't

00:37:22.620 recommend

00:37:23.020 it as

00:37:23.420 a standard.

00:37:24.580 Don't

00:37:24.860 trust your

00:37:25.280 gut instinct.

00:37:27.520 I mean,

00:37:27.880 sometimes it's

00:37:28.440 all you

00:37:28.700 got, so

00:37:29.160 you have

00:37:29.420 to, but

00:37:29.800 I wouldn't

00:37:30.980 imagine it's

00:37:32.040 magic.

00:37:33.200 So here's

00:37:33.640 the thing

00:37:33.920 that's bugging

00:37:34.400 me, and

00:37:35.260 I'm going to

00:37:36.200 try to make

00:37:36.820 this a lesson

00:37:37.540 in persuasion

00:37:38.240 and not so

00:37:38.940 much just

00:37:39.500 about me,

00:37:40.540 even though

00:37:41.060 I'm the

00:37:41.760 star of the

00:37:42.320 story.

00:37:43.680 And it has

00:37:44.580 to do with

00:37:44.880 the fact that

00:37:45.520 a lot of my

00:37:45.920 critics have

00:37:46.600 been saying

00:37:47.000 that I'm

00:37:48.040 really

00:37:48.320 displaying my

00:37:49.540 vaccination

00:37:50.340 regret.

00:37:52.020 How many

00:37:52.680 of you have

00:37:53.140 seen that

00:37:53.720 in me?

00:37:55.080 Have my

00:37:55.600 actions or

00:37:56.300 words recently

00:37:57.160 suggested that

00:37:58.920 I have a

00:37:59.260 great deal of

00:37:59.860 vaccination

00:38:00.440 regret?

00:38:01.960 Because my

00:38:02.600 critics are

00:38:03.080 saying that,

00:38:03.580 and they're

00:38:03.940 quite certain.

00:38:04.940 They see it.

00:38:06.420 Now, in

00:38:06.860 locals, most

00:38:08.160 say no,

00:38:08.940 I'm seeing

00:38:09.520 some yeses.

00:38:11.140 Some say no.

00:38:11.840 Well, let

00:38:12.920 me tell you

00:38:13.320 where I'm

00:38:13.680 at in my

00:38:14.560 thinking, and

00:38:15.240 then you can

00:38:15.760 judge.

00:38:16.640 Because if I'm

00:38:17.640 experiencing

00:38:18.180 cognitive dissonance,

00:38:19.600 it would be

00:38:20.040 something you

00:38:20.580 can see, but

00:38:21.780 I can't.

00:38:23.140 So see if

00:38:24.420 you can see

00:38:24.860 it, or if

00:38:26.460 you agree

00:38:27.880 with me that

00:38:30.860 I'm not

00:38:31.400 afraid.

00:38:32.700 I saw

00:38:33.420 recently that

00:38:34.040 I was

00:38:34.260 suffering the

00:38:34.940 seven signs

00:38:36.920 of death,

00:38:37.480 or whatever

00:38:37.760 it is, where

00:38:38.360 first you're

00:38:39.620 bargaining, and

00:38:40.440 then denial,

00:38:41.840 and then

00:38:42.060 acceptance, or

00:38:42.820 something.

00:38:43.640 But here's

00:38:44.340 my state of

00:38:45.100 mind about

00:38:46.020 my own

00:38:46.600 vaccination.

00:38:47.760 Nothing that

00:38:48.340 I'm going to

00:38:48.660 talk about has

00:38:49.320 to do with

00:38:49.720 your vaccination.

00:38:51.120 Can we

00:38:51.520 agree that

00:38:51.940 your decisions

00:38:52.540 were your

00:38:52.960 own, and

00:38:54.100 that your

00:38:54.400 situation isn't

00:38:55.300 my situation?

00:38:56.580 So they're

00:38:57.000 not directly

00:38:57.720 comparable.

00:38:58.620 So I'm just

00:38:59.060 going to talk

00:38:59.400 about my

00:39:00.440 state of

00:39:01.000 mind for

00:39:02.100 those who

00:39:02.660 think that

00:39:03.160 I'm afraid,

00:39:04.360 or that I

00:39:04.780 have regret.

00:39:06.000 Here's my

00:39:06.400 current state

00:39:06.920 of mind.

00:39:07.840 As of today,

00:39:09.200 there was the

00:39:09.980 most recent

00:39:10.520 report, is

00:39:11.520 that the

00:39:11.820 basically

00:39:12.300 everybody who's

00:39:13.180 having a

00:39:13.580 tough time

00:39:14.000 in the

00:39:14.240 hospital is

00:39:15.380 unvaccinated.

00:39:17.080 One of the

00:39:17.760 biggest criticisms

00:39:18.640 I got is

00:39:19.580 that when I

00:39:20.100 was vaccinated

00:39:20.740 myself, I

00:39:22.260 said that the

00:39:22.840 pandemic was

00:39:23.700 over for the

00:39:24.600 vaccinated, but

00:39:26.160 not the

00:39:26.540 unvaccinated.

00:39:27.900 As of today,

00:39:29.580 there are

00:39:29.940 basically zero

00:39:30.900 vaccinated people

00:39:31.860 dying in

00:39:32.380 hospitals.

00:39:33.480 Not exactly

00:39:34.340 zero, but

00:39:35.380 it's so low

00:39:36.100 that in my

00:39:37.540 mind it

00:39:38.040 rounds to

00:39:38.680 zero.

00:39:39.000 because remember

00:39:39.720 I'm only

00:39:40.120 talking about

00:39:40.640 my mental

00:39:41.120 state.

00:39:42.320 So my

00:39:42.680 mental state

00:39:43.520 has rounded

00:39:45.060 the risk of

00:39:46.520 me personally

00:39:47.240 dying after

00:39:49.060 getting vaccinated

00:39:49.880 as zero.

00:39:51.820 So how much

00:39:52.840 fear do I have

00:39:53.880 of a zero

00:39:54.580 risk?

00:39:56.160 Right?

00:39:56.680 It's not zero

00:39:57.600 for you, and

00:39:59.040 it's not zero

00:39:59.720 for the public.

00:40:00.920 I'm saying that

00:40:01.740 in my mind,

00:40:03.380 it's zero for

00:40:04.160 me.

00:40:05.360 So am I

00:40:06.420 afraid of a

00:40:06.980 zero risk?

00:40:08.060 Here's what

00:40:08.600 else we know.

00:40:09.940 I got the

00:40:10.560 vaccination, and

00:40:12.220 in the first,

00:40:13.340 let's say,

00:40:14.260 four months, I

00:40:15.360 guess, since I

00:40:15.900 got it, or

00:40:16.220 five, in the

00:40:17.700 first five

00:40:18.260 months, I

00:40:19.480 have not had

00:40:20.220 a negative

00:40:21.700 health outcome

00:40:22.560 that I would

00:40:23.100 say was

00:40:23.720 associated with

00:40:25.340 it.

00:40:26.280 Remember, I'm

00:40:27.220 not making the

00:40:27.940 decision before

00:40:28.840 I got vaccinated.

00:40:30.500 I'm looking at

00:40:31.240 it after the

00:40:31.780 fact.

00:40:32.800 So the

00:40:33.220 biggest risk of

00:40:34.060 vaccination, would

00:40:35.140 you agree, the

00:40:36.820 biggest, no, the

00:40:37.920 biggest known

00:40:38.720 risk of the

00:40:39.540 vaccination is

00:40:41.020 fairly soon after

00:40:42.600 you got it.

00:40:43.740 Everybody agree?

00:40:45.500 So even if

00:40:46.400 people are

00:40:46.760 dropping dead

00:40:47.360 from them all

00:40:48.140 over the

00:40:48.460 place, I

00:40:49.140 didn't.

00:40:50.540 So do I

00:40:51.200 have any

00:40:51.560 regret after

00:40:53.520 having already

00:40:54.260 passed through

00:40:55.140 what I consider

00:40:56.000 the dangerous

00:40:56.560 part?

00:40:57.380 It's already

00:40:57.800 behind me.

00:40:59.540 Now, what's

00:41:00.000 ahead of me?

00:41:01.660 Oh, and

00:41:02.060 here's something

00:41:03.300 that Ian

00:41:04.620 Martisus just

00:41:05.600 found out.

00:41:06.780 So this is

00:41:07.200 brand new

00:41:07.640 information.

00:41:08.600 You'll be

00:41:09.100 hearing this for

00:41:09.600 the first time,

00:41:10.200 by the way.

00:41:11.180 So look for

00:41:11.840 Ian Martisus.

00:41:14.160 You can see it in

00:41:14.940 my Twitter feed as

00:41:15.800 well.

00:41:16.280 I retweeted.

00:41:17.380 So he did a

00:41:18.040 study of

00:41:18.440 antibodies, and

00:41:19.660 this is one of

00:41:20.640 the most

00:41:20.900 interesting studies

00:41:21.760 I've seen.

00:41:22.320 It would need

00:41:22.680 to be reproduced

00:41:23.620 and peer-reviewed

00:41:25.380 and all that.

00:41:25.920 I think he's

00:41:26.320 going to go

00:41:26.660 through that.

00:41:27.880 But what he

00:41:28.640 did was he

00:41:29.160 looked at the

00:41:29.620 antibodies of

00:41:30.580 people who

00:41:31.000 got one

00:41:31.480 vaccination,

00:41:32.420 two boosters.

00:41:34.260 But here's the

00:41:34.820 interesting part.

00:41:36.140 He looked at

00:41:36.680 people who

00:41:37.180 got vaccinated

00:41:38.100 first and

00:41:39.060 then infected

00:41:39.680 and looked at

00:41:40.980 their antibodies

00:41:41.660 and then the

00:41:42.840 reverse, the

00:41:44.500 people who

00:41:44.880 got infected

00:41:45.460 first and

00:41:46.540 then antibodies.

00:41:47.740 It turns out

00:41:48.460 that the very

00:41:49.020 best combination,

00:41:50.880 just by accident,

00:41:51.980 I mean, it's

00:41:52.280 not like I

00:41:52.760 planned it,

00:41:53.600 the best

00:41:54.140 combination is

00:41:54.900 to get

00:41:55.220 vaxxed first

00:41:56.220 and then

00:41:58.040 get Omicron.

00:42:00.200 If you do

00:42:00.980 it in this

00:42:01.500 order, according

00:42:02.960 to Ian's

00:42:03.820 numbers, which

00:42:04.800 again, all

00:42:06.340 data has to be

00:42:07.140 verified, you

00:42:08.500 know, you'd

00:42:09.040 want larger

00:42:09.660 samples, blah,

00:42:10.980 blah, blah,

00:42:11.380 reproduced,

00:42:12.040 et cetera.

00:42:12.540 But if his

00:42:13.300 numbers hold

00:42:13.820 out, and by

00:42:14.860 the way, this

00:42:15.380 is my current

00:42:16.060 information, because

00:42:17.320 again, we're

00:42:17.780 only talking about

00:42:18.440 my state of

00:42:19.100 mind, this is

00:42:20.240 my current

00:42:20.720 information, it

00:42:22.460 looked credible

00:42:23.100 to me.

00:42:24.000 I've somehow

00:42:24.820 locked into

00:42:26.220 the very best

00:42:26.980 situation in

00:42:27.740 the world.

00:42:28.860 I got

00:42:29.280 vaccinated, and

00:42:30.580 if I get

00:42:31.260 infected, almost

00:42:33.300 certainly going

00:42:33.860 to be Omicron

00:42:34.440 at this point.

00:42:35.520 Best case.

00:42:36.920 Now, what

00:42:37.740 about the

00:42:38.100 long-term

00:42:38.760 unknown side

00:42:40.260 effects of

00:42:40.780 the vaccination?

00:42:41.620 Do they

00:42:41.900 exist?

00:42:42.900 Well, the

00:42:43.260 risk exists.

00:42:45.060 We all agree

00:42:45.760 on that, right?

00:42:46.740 It's unknown

00:42:47.700 because it

00:42:48.540 could not

00:42:49.000 have been

00:42:49.400 studied.

00:42:52.780 But also

00:42:54.620 the effects

00:42:55.740 of getting

00:42:56.100 COVID when

00:42:56.780 you're not

00:42:57.100 vaccinated is

00:42:57.920 unstudied.

00:42:58.980 So the way

00:42:59.340 I make

00:42:59.700 decisions is

00:43:00.560 that if

00:43:01.380 there's stuff

00:43:01.840 I know, I

00:43:03.140 weight that

00:43:03.640 heavily, and

00:43:04.820 if there are

00:43:05.180 things that

00:43:05.580 are complete

00:43:06.120 unknowns, unless

00:43:08.480 they're

00:43:08.740 catastrophic, but

00:43:09.960 these two are

00:43:10.480 sort of equally

00:43:11.340 catastrophic, but

00:43:13.200 they're complete

00:43:13.700 unknowns, I

00:43:14.980 usually discount

00:43:15.740 that to

00:43:16.120 nothing.

00:43:17.320 All right.

00:43:17.940 So, just to

00:43:19.820 be really careful

00:43:20.720 in my choice of

00:43:21.640 words, I'm not

00:43:22.980 telling you it

00:43:24.120 would be smart

00:43:24.860 for you to

00:43:25.300 get vaccinated

00:43:26.040 or to not

00:43:27.440 be, especially

00:43:28.940 during Omicron.

00:43:30.000 I don't know.

00:43:31.180 Like, I'm not

00:43:31.620 your doctor.

00:43:32.960 If anybody

00:43:33.840 tells you it's

00:43:34.860 smarter to get

00:43:36.220 vaccinated now,

00:43:39.000 you know, during

00:43:39.640 Omicron, I would

00:43:41.300 say they better

00:43:41.940 support that

00:43:42.580 opinion, but

00:43:43.840 it's not one

00:43:44.540 that I

00:43:45.100 necessarily would

00:43:45.960 want to

00:43:47.040 promote.

00:43:48.860 I mean, I'm

00:43:49.500 not sure that we

00:43:50.280 know.

00:43:51.120 At this point, I

00:43:51.820 think it's closer

00:43:52.440 to an unknown.

00:43:54.080 And while I

00:43:55.380 think it's

00:43:55.940 likely that

00:43:57.180 this will be

00:43:57.860 the best

00:43:58.200 situation, getting

00:43:59.580 vaxxed first,

00:44:00.980 wait, but not

00:44:01.960 boosted.

00:44:03.860 This is what I

00:44:04.800 think so far.

00:44:05.840 The boosters, I

00:44:06.820 don't think, are

00:44:07.620 in my personal

00:44:09.840 risk management

00:44:10.740 opinion.

00:44:11.660 I don't think the

00:44:12.460 boosters have the

00:44:13.860 same risk profile

00:44:14.900 as the first two

00:44:15.880 shots.

00:44:16.660 Because the first

00:44:17.280 two shots, at

00:44:17.980 least we had a

00:44:18.620 proper trial.

00:44:19.900 But, you know,

00:44:20.520 who tested the

00:44:21.240 boosters?

00:44:22.100 And there's

00:44:22.680 reason to

00:44:23.140 believe, you

00:44:24.040 know, there's

00:44:24.680 actually a reason

00:44:25.440 to believe that

00:44:25.980 the boosters

00:44:26.380 might be a

00:44:26.940 problem.

00:44:27.560 We don't know

00:44:28.080 yet.

00:44:29.060 So, best

00:44:30.200 situation might

00:44:31.020 be, stay with

00:44:32.160 the vaccinations

00:44:32.780 you have.

00:44:33.700 Because apparently

00:44:34.380 whatever vaccinations

00:44:35.380 you have in one

00:44:36.840 hospital that

00:44:37.500 reported, it

00:44:38.520 didn't matter if

00:44:39.080 you had one or

00:44:39.660 two, and it

00:44:40.760 didn't matter if

00:44:41.300 you were boosted.

00:44:42.460 That's the

00:44:43.040 important part.

00:44:43.620 It didn't matter

00:44:44.160 if you were

00:44:44.560 boosted.

00:44:45.280 You would still

00:44:45.860 survive.

00:44:46.420 So, one

00:44:49.780 doctor was

00:44:50.340 saying, forget

00:44:50.900 about the

00:44:51.380 boosters, just

00:44:52.780 make sure that

00:44:53.480 people get at

00:44:54.260 least one shot.

00:44:55.840 I'm not

00:44:56.540 promoting that

00:44:57.220 view, I'm

00:44:58.200 just saying one

00:44:58.700 doctor said

00:44:59.240 that.

00:45:00.160 All right, so,

00:45:01.640 I would like to

00:45:02.320 put to bed the

00:45:03.240 idea that I

00:45:05.480 have vaccination

00:45:06.360 and regret,

00:45:07.480 because while

00:45:08.140 it's still

00:45:08.640 entirely true

00:45:09.800 that I could

00:45:11.160 be wrong, and

00:45:12.280 I could drop

00:45:12.780 dead tomorrow

00:45:13.340 from the

00:45:14.480 vaccination

00:45:14.860 itself, does

00:45:16.780 it make sense

00:45:17.320 that I would

00:45:17.680 have regret if

00:45:18.860 this is my

00:45:19.380 understanding of

00:45:20.060 the current

00:45:20.340 situation?

00:45:21.500 It doesn't,

00:45:22.200 does it?

00:45:23.240 I don't think

00:45:23.920 so.

00:45:25.540 All right, I'm

00:45:26.360 going to have

00:45:26.600 to go in a

00:45:28.080 few minutes.

00:45:28.660 Let me close

00:45:30.500 up here.

00:45:31.220 The weird thing

00:45:31.940 that's going to

00:45:32.320 happen is that

00:45:32.840 the people who

00:45:33.680 are bad at

00:45:34.500 analysis are

00:45:36.560 also going to

00:45:37.320 be bad at

00:45:38.940 analyzing whether

00:45:39.860 they were right

00:45:40.560 or wrong in

00:45:41.080 their predictions.

00:45:42.360 And the weird

00:45:42.780 thing that the

00:45:43.300 people who are

00:45:43.700 bad at

00:45:44.200 analysis are

00:45:44.840 doing is

00:45:46.140 they're saying

00:45:46.540 they were

00:45:46.860 right all

00:45:47.340 along, but

00:45:49.600 their predictions

00:45:50.920 were made

00:45:51.460 during a

00:45:51.920 completely

00:45:52.320 different

00:45:52.700 situation.

00:45:54.200 The people

00:45:54.620 who made

00:45:54.900 predictions

00:45:55.260 during the

00:45:55.820 alpha and

00:45:56.400 delta wave

00:45:57.180 are claiming

00:45:58.300 to be right

00:45:59.060 all along.

00:46:00.940 Now the

00:46:01.440 Omicron is

00:46:02.160 here.

00:46:03.300 And somebody

00:46:03.800 said to me

00:46:04.380 on Twitter,

00:46:05.480 but we knew

00:46:05.980 that the

00:46:06.400 attenuated

00:46:07.000 virus would

00:46:07.740 come.

00:46:08.260 That was

00:46:08.520 part of our

00:46:09.000 prediction.

00:46:09.860 If you just

00:46:10.440 wait, all

00:46:12.040 viruses burn

00:46:13.120 out, the

00:46:14.280 attenuated

00:46:14.880 virus would

00:46:15.480 come, just

00:46:16.060 like we

00:46:16.440 predicted.

00:46:17.300 I would

00:46:17.920 like to

00:46:18.300 question whether

00:46:19.140 you predicted

00:46:19.820 that an

00:46:20.540 engineered virus

00:46:21.640 would escape

00:46:22.240 from a lab

00:46:22.920 and it would

00:46:24.420 be Omicron.

00:46:25.800 Really?

00:46:27.200 Now, of course,

00:46:28.480 I'm making an

00:46:29.000 assumption, aren't

00:46:29.580 I, that Omicron

00:46:31.240 is engineered, and

00:46:32.440 I am making that

00:46:33.120 assumption.

00:46:34.100 But if you're

00:46:34.920 telling me that

00:46:35.540 you predicted

00:46:36.960 that the

00:46:38.900 engineered Omicron

00:46:40.180 would escape

00:46:40.740 from a lab

00:46:41.420 also, I'm

00:46:43.800 going to call

00:46:44.160 bullshit on

00:46:44.820 that.

00:46:45.620 That's

00:46:45.940 bullshit.

00:46:46.760 Because the

00:46:47.440 thing that you

00:46:48.220 predicted, you

00:46:49.660 genetically,

00:46:50.700 generically, the

00:46:52.000 thing you

00:46:52.360 predicted was an

00:46:53.200 attenuated virus.

00:46:54.800 You didn't

00:46:55.460 predict a

00:46:56.000 genetically

00:46:56.480 enhanced

00:46:57.420 attenuated

00:46:58.120 virus.

00:46:58.980 Nobody

00:46:59.200 predicted that.

00:47:00.720 Right?

00:47:01.480 So I don't

00:47:02.640 know if it

00:47:02.940 was escaped or

00:47:03.700 released or

00:47:04.460 what.

00:47:04.740 But I

00:47:05.660 think the

00:47:06.080 smart money

00:47:06.660 says it's

00:47:07.220 engineered.

00:47:08.640 It's not

00:47:09.380 confirmed.

00:47:11.200 I don't know

00:47:11.940 if you get

00:47:12.360 kicked off of

00:47:13.060 social media for

00:47:14.520 saying what I

00:47:15.060 just said, but

00:47:15.920 it's not

00:47:16.220 confirmed.

00:47:17.440 But I think

00:47:18.300 the smart money

00:47:18.980 says it's

00:47:19.460 engineered.

00:47:22.240 All right.

00:47:23.560 So here are

00:47:24.900 some examples of

00:47:25.960 what people are

00:47:26.820 saying that

00:47:27.960 doesn't make

00:47:28.420 sense to me.

00:47:30.700 Lewis P.

00:47:31.500 says, do we

00:47:32.160 mandate other

00:47:32.920 vaccines that

00:47:33.680 have not been

00:47:34.200 fully tested and

00:47:43.160 for which there

00:47:43.680 is no liability

00:47:44.500 on the part of

00:47:45.100 the manufacturer?

00:47:46.300 To which I

00:47:46.880 say, that's

00:47:48.580 bad analysis.

00:47:50.480 The people who

00:47:51.080 are bad at

00:47:51.500 analyzing things

00:47:52.540 will get one

00:47:53.260 thing consistently

00:47:54.320 wrong.

00:47:55.340 They'll compare

00:47:55.940 the wrong two

00:47:56.660 things.

00:47:57.820 And this is an

00:47:58.440 example of that.

00:47:59.940 You should not

00:48:00.640 compare anything

00:48:01.340 you did in a

00:48:02.260 crisis with

00:48:03.920 anything you do

00:48:04.760 in a non-crisis.

00:48:06.600 That would be

00:48:07.240 the most basic

00:48:08.060 mistake of

00:48:08.700 analysis.

00:48:10.280 So while my

00:48:12.200 only point is

00:48:12.940 that vaccines

00:48:13.600 have been

00:48:14.060 mandated in the

00:48:14.980 past, I'm

00:48:16.280 not saying that

00:48:16.880 that's the

00:48:17.840 reason they

00:48:18.420 should be

00:48:18.700 mandated in the

00:48:19.400 future.

00:48:20.820 That's not the

00:48:21.740 point.

00:48:22.620 The point is

00:48:23.260 that if you're

00:48:23.860 talking philosophically

00:48:25.220 about whether a

00:48:26.960 vaccine can be

00:48:27.800 mandated in the

00:48:28.620 United States,

00:48:29.460 that's been

00:48:30.220 asked and

00:48:30.880 answered.

00:48:31.780 It's already

00:48:32.260 happened for

00:48:33.100 years.

00:48:34.260 But as other

00:48:35.460 people have

00:48:35.860 pointed out,

00:48:36.440 well, you're

00:48:36.720 talking about

00:48:37.120 limited ways and

00:48:38.260 it's about kids

00:48:39.360 going to school

00:48:40.160 and maybe for

00:48:41.940 some kind of

00:48:42.420 travel and

00:48:43.460 blah, blah, blah.

00:48:44.180 I get that.

00:48:45.300 So my point is

00:48:46.140 don't compare the

00:48:46.960 two.

00:48:47.540 That's my whole

00:48:48.060 point.

00:48:49.080 You can't

00:48:49.820 compare what we

00:48:51.640 did with other

00:48:52.320 vaccinations to

00:48:53.580 what you do in a

00:48:54.240 crisis.

00:48:55.340 In a crisis,

00:48:56.320 you take a

00:48:56.700 bigger chance

00:48:57.320 because it's

00:48:58.720 a crisis.

00:48:59.760 In a non-crisis,

00:49:00.880 you take a

00:49:01.320 small risk because

00:49:02.980 you have the

00:49:03.380 option.

00:49:04.320 In a crisis,

00:49:05.480 you're probably

00:49:06.580 going to take a

00:49:07.200 bigger risk and

00:49:07.920 that's the smart

00:49:08.520 thing to do.

00:49:09.620 So when somebody

00:49:10.300 says we took a

00:49:11.240 small risk when

00:49:12.220 it made sense and

00:49:13.940 we took a bigger

00:49:14.620 risk when it also

00:49:15.660 made sense in

00:49:16.340 that case, that

00:49:18.960 doesn't sound like

00:49:19.660 a problem to me.

00:49:21.960 All right.

00:49:22.280 Let's see.

00:49:27.800 What else do we

00:49:28.200 have going on?

00:49:29.500 Did you know

00:49:30.140 that athletes have

00:49:30.960 been dying suddenly

00:49:31.860 for years?

00:49:34.560 There's a new

00:49:35.200 one.

00:49:35.440 Gene Ramirez,

00:49:36.420 age 28, for

00:49:38.260 the Tampa Bay

00:49:38.900 Rays.

00:49:39.340 He was a star.

00:49:40.340 And he just

00:49:40.880 passed away

00:49:41.360 suddenly.

00:49:42.060 And of course,

00:49:42.520 that gets tweeted

00:49:43.400 around in the

00:49:44.240 context of is

00:49:45.960 this one of the

00:49:46.540 vaccination deaths?

00:49:49.040 Now, there's no

00:49:49.800 reported link to a

00:49:51.380 vaccination.

00:49:52.280 But were you

00:49:54.280 aware that this

00:49:56.960 happens regularly

00:49:57.820 and always has?

00:49:59.580 How many of you

00:50:00.680 were aware that

00:50:02.100 the baseline of

00:50:03.520 top-end athletes

00:50:05.360 is suddenly dying,

00:50:06.900 usually with heart

00:50:07.680 complications, is

00:50:09.020 fairly normal?

00:50:10.480 Did you know that?

00:50:12.420 Like, it's been

00:50:13.140 happening since I

00:50:13.900 can remember.

00:50:14.420 And if you

00:50:15.620 Google it, if you

00:50:17.400 want to check on

00:50:17.900 this, just Google

00:50:18.720 something like

00:50:20.520 athletes dying

00:50:22.260 suddenly.

00:50:23.200 I think that's all

00:50:24.020 you need.

00:50:24.940 Athletes dying 1.00

00:50:25.780 suddenly.

00:50:26.800 And make sure that

00:50:27.720 you do a search

00:50:28.360 that's before the

00:50:29.240 pandemic.

00:50:30.920 Just limit, you

00:50:31.680 know, make sure

00:50:32.080 your search goes

00:50:32.640 back further.

00:50:33.240 You'll find it's

00:50:33.900 just a widespread

00:50:34.620 thing.

00:50:35.440 Now, I'm not

00:50:36.080 telling you, again,

00:50:37.080 to be careful.

00:50:38.520 I'm not telling you

00:50:39.620 we won't find out

00:50:40.600 that some of those

00:50:41.420 deaths are vaccine

00:50:42.540 related.

00:50:43.400 How would I

00:50:43.860 know?

00:50:44.960 I'm just saying

00:50:45.680 if you ignore the

00:50:46.920 fact that it's a

00:50:47.700 baseline thing that

00:50:48.500 happens all the

00:50:49.060 time, you're

00:50:50.920 missing some of

00:50:51.460 the context.

00:50:53.480 All right.

00:50:56.160 The deaths in the

00:50:57.140 field are up five

00:50:57.920 times.

00:50:58.500 I don't believe

00:50:59.280 there's any data

00:50:59.940 that would support

00:51:02.560 that.

00:51:03.600 Now, if that's

00:51:04.240 true, that would

00:51:04.860 be a big deal.

00:51:06.640 But if you...

00:51:07.860 I know that you

00:51:11.200 think you've seen

00:51:11.780 some data on that,

00:51:12.540 but I'm pretty

00:51:13.800 sure it's debunked.

00:51:15.140 Now, I could be

00:51:16.160 wrong about that.

00:51:20.080 I literally just

00:51:21.820 said I could be

00:51:22.500 wrong as somebody

00:51:23.420 is mocking me for

00:51:24.340 saying I'm always

00:51:25.040 right.

00:51:25.700 I tell you, this is

00:51:26.420 my whole fucking

00:51:27.000 experience in life,

00:51:28.760 is people saying

00:51:29.660 that, like, I

00:51:30.660 could hold an

00:51:31.460 apple in my hand

00:51:32.460 and my critics

00:51:33.360 would stand in

00:51:34.000 front of me and

00:51:34.540 say, why don't

00:51:35.540 you ever have an

00:51:36.200 apple in your hand?

00:51:37.340 And I'd be like,

00:51:38.000 I have an apple in

00:51:39.020 my hand right now.

00:51:40.320 And my critics

00:51:40.980 would say, that's

00:51:42.460 not an apple.

00:51:44.880 That's an orange

00:51:45.700 you're trying to

00:51:46.280 sell us.

00:51:47.400 Well, Biden's

00:51:48.420 trying to get

00:51:50.920 rid of the

00:51:51.300 filibuster and I

00:51:52.640 guess McConnell

00:51:53.200 didn't like that

00:51:54.020 and turned on

00:51:55.080 him and he said

00:51:56.080 this.

00:51:57.560 He said,

00:51:58.760 everything is a...

00:52:00.460 Oh.

00:52:03.240 Did he say this?

00:52:05.000 Oh, this is me

00:52:05.780 saying this.

00:52:06.200 This is my own

00:52:06.640 note I was reading.

00:52:07.300 I thought it was

00:52:07.580 McConnell.

00:52:07.980 For a moment I

00:52:09.480 thought, wow,

00:52:10.060 McConnell's really

00:52:11.760 got away with

00:52:12.360 words.

00:52:12.740 I was reading my

00:52:13.280 own note for

00:52:13.820 myself.

00:52:15.560 Yes, that's how

00:52:16.360 bad I am.

00:52:18.260 So, I think

00:52:21.420 maybe the, yeah,

00:52:23.660 all of the

00:52:24.120 filibuster stuff

00:52:25.140 that's related to

00:52:26.880 the voting rights,

00:52:28.180 I think that's all

00:52:28.840 a diversion.

00:52:30.120 It feels like it's

00:52:31.020 a strategic diversion.

00:52:33.260 And that's all I

00:52:34.000 have to say about

00:52:34.580 that.

00:52:34.800 So, I think we

00:52:38.940 can agree this is

00:52:39.780 the very best

00:52:40.980 live stream that

00:52:42.580 has ever, ever

00:52:43.600 happened.

00:52:45.540 And I need to

00:52:46.760 run and thanks

00:52:48.080 for reminding me.

00:52:49.320 And, oh, let's

00:52:50.260 see if this, is

00:52:52.320 there one super

00:52:53.000 chat up there?

00:52:54.280 Well, it didn't

00:52:54.860 store them.

00:52:56.400 Damn it.

00:52:57.780 There's supposed

00:52:58.280 to be a little

00:52:59.480 list of super

00:53:00.240 chats that I can

00:53:01.540 tap.

00:53:02.140 I don't know

00:53:02.440 why it's there.

00:53:03.440 So, it's probably

00:53:04.340 a boomer problem

00:53:04.980 but I can't

00:53:05.520 handle that right

00:53:06.080 now and I'll

00:53:06.640 have to talk to

00:53:07.220 you later.

00:53:08.280 Bye.

00:53:08.460 Bye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 13, 2022

Episode 1622 Scott Adams： Let's Talk About My Vaccination Regrets and Cognitive Blindness. Lots of Persuasion Lessons Today

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