Episode 1632 Scott Adams： Nothing But Hoaxes and Fake News Today. There's Plenty of it
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 5 minutes
Words per Minute
154.09758
Summary
In this episode of Coffee with Scott Adams, we talk about fake news, conspiracy theories and the hoaxes that have been going around since the 30s and 40s. Is it a hoax or not?
Transcript
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everybody and welcome to coffee with scott adams probably the best thing you'll ever experience in
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your entire life you may feel some tingling early on don't worry the tingling is nothing to worry
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about it's not a comorbidity it's actually a sign that your day is starting up right and man has it
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started up right we got fake news we got hoaxes we got all kinds of stuff coming at you is china
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listening you ask probably if they're not i'm gonna make sure that they do but first before we
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get going how would you like to take it up a notch i know you would all you need is a copper mugger
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a glass of tanker chelsea sign a canteen jug a flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite
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beverage i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure it's the dopamine hit of
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the day it's called the simultaneous slurp no sip sip it's not a slurp and it happens now go
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uh oh your meme timing over on locals is excellent excellent
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well i knew there would be a day eventually when a hundred percent of the news was hoaxes
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now i don't know if we're quite there but at the end of this i want you to tell me
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because it looks like it's all fake to me or at least uh partially let me start with uh the fake
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news that fooled me for about uh half a minute until somebody told me it was fake news uh there was a
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there's a fake old looking uh cartoon it looks like it was made in the 30s you know really black
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and white and it looked like it presented itself as a story of how to take over the world by
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introducing a fake weaponized virus and making everybody get vaccinations now when i looked at it
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i thought huh that seems like a weird coincidence that somebody had a fictional plot in the 30s
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that was similar to something that happened so i tweeted it thinking whoa that's a weird coincidence
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but it's not a coincidence it's just a fraud so it wasn't it wasn't such a coincidence now of course
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what happened when i uh tweeted what i thought people would see as a coincidence
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well people thought that it was proof that everything they said was true that there was a global conspiracy
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to introduce this virus and they'd been planning it since the 30s that wasn't what i had in mind
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and people thought scott you finally woken up finally you woke up and found out this plot has
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been brewing since the 30s and there's proof in that comic right there well that's not exactly what
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happened it was more like i thought huh somebody had a fictional plot that just looked like the real
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world that's what i thought it was but anyway i deleted it uh it is debunk here's a i am seeing things
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that are just rocking my whole world i i saw some people who looked credible but on twitter you can't
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really tell who were saying that it is a hoax to imagine that 75 percent of the people who are dying
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from covid have comorbidities and that that hoax started with a abc news thing that they got wrong
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and that from there it spread and that there's nothing like that going on
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what is that possible is it possible that comorbidities didn't make a difference because i googled it
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immediately of course and you know there were plenty of stories that suggested comorbidities
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were you know triple the risk etc but have you heard this or is there something about the definition
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of things um but but let me just ask you have you heard anybody push back on that like the entire
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thing was a hoax and the comorbidities didn't really predict as much as you thought
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has anybody said that because i'm seeing people actually debunk it like oh it's well known it's
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been debunked that comorbidity thing has been totally debunked because i would be really interested
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if that were true because i can't imagine that's true yeah and nobody else saw that right so this might
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be one of those news bubble things where there might be a bubble where where people think that's been
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debunked and i think that's been debunked and i think that the idea of it was
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market trader but i'm just gonna get rid of stupid people like you really need to take your criticism
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up to a level of not fucking idiot really so market trader you're gonna go in the in the biz bag here
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um just raise your game a little bit just a little bit a little bit
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all right um but it made me think that maybe the purpose of that was to make people think that they
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were not safe and they better get their vaccinations i don't know well i don't know what the purpose of it
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will be there's another uh hoax and or hoax about the hoax you decide and the hoax or the hoax about
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the hoax uh apparently china is doing a big push to it looks like they bought off some influencers
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and the influencers that are apparently bought off by china are saying that there's no uyghur genocide
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so you're seeing a bunch of you know social media things on that uyghur genocide there's nothing like
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that going on now here's the clever part they're defining genocide very narrowly to be you know mass
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killing or mass you know stopping birth rate one of those things and uh the people who china has
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apparently bought off to influence is saying no no there is no genocide and stop saying genocide
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because that would say we're killing people and that's not what's happening and we're not doing
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anything about the birth rate because the birth rate in the the uyghur territory is actually higher
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than the birth rate in the rest of the country so and the uyghurs would have more children than the
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chinese ethnic chinese elsewhere had you ever heard that that the uyghurs were were having more
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children even during the time that china was clamping down and having children they gave a little bit
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of extra leeway i guess for cultural reasons um of the uyghurs they claim they claim who knows who
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knows what's true that's just the claim right i'm not saying it's true just the claim but
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if uh if what china wanted us to believe is that there's nothing especially bad going on whatsoever
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except that they're dealing with a what was a pretty big terrorism problem in that community
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and they've figured out a way to would say that and all they're doing is sort of re-educating people
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to not be terrorists how how could that be bad well here's my question to you china if any of that is
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true why don't you let us take a look you don't have to tell us what's true you don't have to correct the
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hoax you don't have to do anything just open the door here let me tell you how to i'd like to
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demonstrate this for china in case they don't know how to solve their gigantic gigantic pr problem
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see i don't have a good prop but but imagine i was holding a key in my hand and i would like to teach
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them how to solve this gigantic problem you invite some reporters in from other countries and then you
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walk over to the the door behind which is all the uyghurs being either re-educated or retrained or
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possibly massively abused in a human rights sense now if you'd like to clear it up
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we'll take a little item it's probably about this big it's called a key and you would put that in the
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lock of the front door of your uyghur retraining facilities and you'd turn it clockwise about this far
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and then there might be some kind of a handle situation and then you would pull or maybe turn
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that and then you would swing forward the thing called a door and then the people would walk through
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that that door possibly look around and talk to the the uyghurs and they might come up with an opinion
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that totally agreed with china maybe you know if you have a problem that can be solved that easily
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wouldn't you do it if the worst problem that you had could be solved by doing this
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hmm hmm and then you're done you're completely done you've just solved your biggest problem
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hmm but apparently they would rather buy influence and have them talk about it
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than to completely solve the problem by hmm hmm i guess china hadn't figured out how to use the
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fucking key now it's bad enough you haven't used the fucking spoon
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because you got your chopsticks that's a that's a jerry seinfeld joke by the way i'm stealing that
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you know it's bad enough that you couldn't figure out how to use a spoon
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you had to use chopsticks i'm just joking about that part
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but you don't know how to use a key you don't know how to open a door say take a look
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all right so remember you should assume anything that comes from a government is a lie unless they
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can prove it's true the burden of proof is on the government not just the united states
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but every government the burden of proof is on them to prove they're not doing something bad it's
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not like an individual where the burden of proof is on the the state blah blah all right
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um so i'm gonna say that's probably not a hoax it's probably a hoax it's a hoax
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meanwhile uh china fired germany's navy chief which is weird so there was a guy who was the top guy in
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germany's navy and uh china fired him for saying that uh that germany should get closer to russia
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to to basically team up against china china didn't like that so they they fired him
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now that's not the way it's reported if you've seen it reported they probably don't word it the way i did
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they don't say china fired him but what else happened how do you explain it any other way
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is there any other explanation do you think that russia put pressure on germany to say no no no fire
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this guy because he keeps saying we should be friends with russia no it probably wasn't russia
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um do you think that germany itself the people in germany uh are so offended by the idea that we should
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have an out we should ally ally with russia against china is that idea so so you know unacceptable
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i think china fired him meaning that germany's relationship with china depended on him being
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fired i literally i think china fired him if that doesn't scare you i don't know i will if china
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can fire people in your government and i think that just happened in germany you better wouldn't be
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worried all right here's another uh cnn fake news now it's fake in the sense that they're acting like it's
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there's news why is this news apparently uh during or the aftermath of january 6th sean hannity of fox
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news was messaging uh uh maca mackalady mackalady i could never remember i can never pronounce her last
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name and was suggesting that trump uh tone it down or stop talking about the stolen election
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now this is being reported as cnn's characterization as uh hannity and uh mackalady conspiring to control
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trump is that what happened mack mack mackenney mackenney uh sorry i can't pronounce her last name um
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but would you say that's a characterization that hannity uh was conspiring to control trump
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don't you think that every single uh person in trump's universe gave him advice do you think there was
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anybody who didn't give him advice where every single person in his universe was just conspiring to control
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him it's not conspiring to control him it's not conspiring okay mack mackenney said thank you mackenney
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i was i think i was conflating her first and last names here
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anyway why is it news that hannity would uh give some advice to trump or give advice through somebody
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else to give to trump there's no story there at all is there it's like there's literally nothing there
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it's stuff you already knew hannity knew trump trump would talk to hannity and get advice
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if you i've said this before but i don't think cnn is quite
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uh appreciating how valuable advice from hannity would be in this exact situation
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think of anybody in the entire planet that would be a better source for advice
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on just this specific topic how to handle the public and the politics of it
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then hannity seriously who's more qualified than he is to give that exact advice how to handle this
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situation and also laura ingram right who is more qualified than that tucker yeah same thing i mean
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you can say you agree or disagree with their advice but i mean nobody's more qualified they're they're
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about the most qualified people on the planet for that exact question how to handle the public
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because they're the ones who handle the public every day you know they're sort of the gatekeepers of
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opinion on the right so that's a that was a nothing story they tried to make into something all right
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here's another uh hoax or not hoax you decide we of course may never know if the cove deaths were
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accurately counted so i'm just i'm just joking we will know they were inaccurately counted am i right we will
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know someday that they were definitely inaccurately counted are you with me so far but the degree
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and the direction of that might still be a surprise and the reason i can say it's poorly counted is
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because everything is early on right pretty much everything's poorly counted in the beginning you're
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lucky if you can ever fix it so i'm sure it's poorly counted but i had estimated and this is based on
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well let me give you some context for much of my corporate career i was a finance guy so i'd be
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crunching numbers and making predictions and putting budgets together and stuff like that and one of the
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things that happens that's really mysterious is that when you work with numbers and estimates and
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predictions all day long and you're sort of immersed in it you develop this weird ability to estimate
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things for which there's no information i don't know i don't understand it it's something that my
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old boss could do because she did the job before i did it and she amazed me when i first took the job
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where she would just make an estimate of something and she'd say i don't know i think that's going to
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cost you about uh you know 1.2 million dollars with no with no work whatsoever and then i would do all
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this work two weeks later and have everything collected and show it to her and it'd be like
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1.2 million dollars i'd be like how the hell did you do that and she would say i don't know it's just
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you know you just live and breathe this world and then you can just sort of guess what things are going
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to cost now later i figured out is probably related to understanding what the market could handle
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so she knew what things would cost not so much based on what the you know what it cost to make
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that stuff that would be unknowable but sort of knowing if you're the the consumer which we were
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we were the ones who decided what technology to buy if we were the consumers we kind of say you know
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that sounds too expensive just you know if i'm a buyer uh that's relative to other things that just
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sounds expensive and that's probably how prices are set prices are probably set based on how they
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feel right you're going to charge as much as you can get until you cross the line where people say
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that's too much so she just had this intuition after a while of what would be too much to charge
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for anything so she could make an estimate of what something would cost without any information
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any information about the thing we were looking at and i was always amazed by it until i developed
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the same skill and i i always show off show this off to christina she's seen it a million times so
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she's completely convinced we'll talk about something that i don't know anything about i'll say hi you
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know i think that cost about that's going to be about thirty five hundred dollars and and weirdly i'll
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i'll be right way more often than common sense would suggest and i think it's the same skill it's
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not about how much it costs to make it it's about how much a consumer would pay for it because that's
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going to be the price and you just sort of feel that after a while so anyway i took that skill or lack
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of skill that has all the scientific backing of a horoscope and i applied it to the question of have
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we over counted or under counted um covet deaths and my best guess with no information whatsoever
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is that we over counted deaths by 25 percent would you like me to back that with sources
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i don't have any all i have is a life experience which suggests that that's about how much you get
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wrong before you close down the system so that so that's sort of the intuition behind it how bad could
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the numbers be before it would just close the system in other words it would be so bad that the
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whistleblowers couldn't resist right if you're ten percent off will that produce a whistleblower
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probably not right i don't think i don't think a 10 error in counting would necessarily produce a
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whistleblower because it wouldn't really change what we do right the all the techniques and mandates
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and everything would be exactly the same so that so if it were only a ten percent you wouldn't produce
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any whistleblowers at what level are you guaranteed to get whistleblowers the kind that just break the
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whole system it's around 25 in a pandemic now how do i base that absolutely nothing but a lifetime of
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experience let me see if i can explain it in a way that maybe your intuition will will get some traction
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on this or not if the numbers were let me let me give you some extremes if the numbers were off by 500
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from day one could we have gotten to this point without knowing that for sure i'd say no all of my
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intuition says if it were that bad 500 off we it's just too noticeable likewise if it's only off by 10
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i mean it doesn't even matter really because our decisions would be exactly the same somewhere between
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500 and 10 percent things get murky in my sense of how things work where people start to notice things
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put it in the context of a pandemic where you're going to need a bigger signal to notice right because
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when you're in a fog of war 10 of anything doesn't stand out you're going to need something greater
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than 25 percent before anybody even notices because there's just so much noise and variables and stuff
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going on so my uh life experience says that the covid deaths in hospitals are maybe 25 percent
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um overaccounted um overaccounted also because it would be too much of a financial scandal to be
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too much more than that if a hospital got caught with a 25 percent overaccount and they had gotten
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funding because of that could they defend themselves 25 percent probably i'll bet they could defend a 25
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percent error could they defend a 50 percent error yes this is all this is all guessing speculation
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intuition nothing more than that i don't think they could defend a 50 percent error so you would expect
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that the hospitals if they had a financial motive would take the financial motive as far as they could
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but just short of where they knew they could defend it when they got caught because you can defend an
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error you can't defend it if it's intentional right 25 is about the point where anybody can explain
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anything away as a mistake at 50 good luck good luck explaining a 50 difference 25 that's pushing it
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but because as all of you have often said follow the money you would expect that the amount that they
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thought they could get away with would be redlining right they would push that right to the max
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under these situations right so i'm going to say 25 over counted and then i'm going to really make
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you mad by saying that's probably exactly balanced by 25 under counted
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i think we're also under counted by about 25 and that was based on a recent study in which they
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actually looked to you know deep do a deep dive and found out how many people probably died of covid
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that were not identified that were not identified as such because if somebody dies at home
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you don't always know if they die and they've got a comorbidity maybe you didn't notice
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etc now i wouldn't i wouldn't trust the study that says it was under counted by 25 do you know i
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okay because it's data it's a study and it's 2022 who trusts any study in 2022 if you trust
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anything in 2022 you've missed the entire lesson of the pandemic or the last five years really so no
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i don't i don't trust that uh study but it does suggest that there might be something there in terms of
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it's i do think the study probably proved there can be such a thing as under counting
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i don't think i would go beyond that i don't think it can prove how much i think they could prove it exists
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i do exactly this at work here's a comment over precision or sas apps such as or just shy of
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20 so anything you ever bought a vendor will start asking you to pay more yeah 25 is sort of a
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psychological uh barrier right things like 10 25 50 they have importance like a round number like 100
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you know whatever the stock market reaches a round number like you know 16 000 or whatever it is
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then then everybody starts talking about it so our brains are really focused on sort of metrics that
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we snap to grid i like using that term we snap to grid on 10 25 50 that's why i think 25 is a reasonable
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estimate so bottom line is we don't know how to count uh the uh the dead my personal estimate is that
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we're roughly right because our over count and our under count probably came close to canceling each
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other out but i wouldn't die on that hill i wouldn't bet on it if you asked me to you know put my actual
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money on that uh prediction that we're going to be pretty close on the count because the overs and
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unders cancel out i wouldn't bet money on it that's just sort of where my intuition takes me at the moment
00:26:15.420
all right uh rasmussen has some uh thoughts about the 2020 election so here's here's a tweet i'm just
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gonna read you the tweet and so i don't get banned by social media i will tell you this is me talking
00:26:29.580
about somebody else's tweet as opposed to saying any of these things are factually true are we good
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because it's you can talk about something without asserting it's true and then you still stay on
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social media i'm pretty sure we'll find out i'm pretty sure that that keeps me safe all right
00:26:49.420
so rasmussen report has a twitter account and here's what they tweeted blockbuster 2020 election
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integrity first item is wisconsin quote ghost voter army silently emerges from state election records i
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don't know the details of that but i apparently there's some kind of phantom votes but i don't know from
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the tweet whether that's a significant number or confirmed or anything else number two we see
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evidence that third parties do have access to the voter rolls and can alter uh alter the outcomes
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alter an item now the fact that somebody has access to it does that mean it happened it does not it
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doesn't mean that they use that access to alter the vote it just means they had the they had the option
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uh and here's the more interesting one over 115 000 voters over 100 years old voted in the 2020
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election uh that would be more than all of the people over 100 years old in the entire country there are 97
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000 people that age last we checked but 115 000 of them voted in the election which is a pretty good
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turnout pretty good usually you're trying for 100 turnout but if you can get you know 110 120 turnout
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within a demographic then i would say your get out the vote campaign has been very effective
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so this is really a story about how they get out the vote campaign for the democrats was excellent because
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not only did they get more than 100 of this group to vote uh but i'm pretty sure they all voted democrat
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and you can't do better than that you can't do better than that all right this is probably fake news
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sorry do you really think that there were more 100 year olds voting than exist do you think that's real
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really here's the other explanation here's the other explanation that there were a number of databases in
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smaller towns where the data was incomplete and when the data is incomplete it defaults to say you're
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over 100 years old because it doesn't know how old you are it's just a just a software thing so which is
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more which do you think is more likely that a known problem it's confirmed problem that if you don't have
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the right data and some of the smaller towns i guess didn't have the data it's a known problem
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that the software will make it look like you have too many hundred year olds
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what sounds more reasonable we know the software does that or there were more hundred year olds that
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voted than there are in the entire country meaning that meaning that there's something illegal going on
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um there's a scale problem so here's the pushback to the pushback all right so the claim is that too
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many too many people of this over 100 years old voted and it couldn't possibly be true so let's accept
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that it's not true all right let's see if we're all on the same page nobody thinks it's true
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that there were more people who voted than existed right so we would all agree that no matter what
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the answer of how this happened is what definitely didn't happen is that there were more hundred year
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olds voting than exist all right we know that didn't happen so only two possibilities either fraud
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or just a software thing that doesn't mean anything the the pushback on the software is that there
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weren't that many towns and they weren't that big to make this much of a difference
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i don't know i can't i can't fact check that with my own deep dive and doing my own research
00:30:57.180
so i'm going to leave that to you as your your uh your assignment if anybody wants to do their own
00:31:03.900
research find out if the small towns that were involved in this bad data if there were enough of
00:31:11.260
those small towns that it could possibly explain the discrepancy because you would imagine you would
00:31:20.300
imagine that this is exactly the group where the fraud would happen but it's also exactly the group where
00:31:25.820
the bad record keeping happens let me think if i were about to intentionally do some fraud would i do it
00:31:35.820
where the record keeping is really good or would i look for a place where the record keeping is so bad
00:31:45.340
that even when my fraud was detected you couldn't really suss it out
00:31:49.660
which would i pick the place where i would definitely get caught because the data was so
00:31:56.780
good they'd notice an anomaly or the place where the data is so bad i'd have a built-in reason when
00:32:02.780
somebody asks well it's that small town effect where would you hide your crime would you hide it where
00:32:09.900
you can't find it or it's obvious so there is no way to know with current data what was going on
00:32:17.740
with this number i will just tell the only thing i wanted you to know is that there are two stories
00:32:22.460
and with the data that we have right now i don't know that we can tell which one's real but if you
00:32:28.060
think that you're getting the straight story for sure well i would question that you know i think you're
00:32:35.180
i think your skepticism has to be set to 10 on this doesn't mean there was anything fraudulent
00:32:41.020
but your skepticism should be just pinned pinned to the right right until until your government can
00:32:49.340
make this go away and i don't know they can but until they can make this kind of question go away just
00:32:54.620
assume there's something wrong all right um this next category i'll call news of the obvious news of the
00:33:05.020
obvious this is where something that everybody knows is turned into breaking news all right early
00:33:12.700
saturday uh the the foreign commonwealth and development office in the uk they said that
00:33:19.020
they had information it must be secret information they got somehow suggesting that the russian plan
00:33:25.660
was in the works and that quote we have information that indicates the russian government
00:33:31.100
is looking to install a pro-russian leader in kiev ukraine as it considers whether to invade and occupy
00:33:39.260
ukraine a spokesman for the british agency said wow this is so shocking did anybody suspect that
00:33:49.660
putin might want to set up a puppet government in the ukraine if he couldn't own it outright who would
00:33:57.340
have ever seen that coming how about every single person who watches the news is there anybody who
00:34:04.540
didn't know that putin wants to set up a puppet government if he can't just you know outright take
00:34:11.260
the country what is the news here i think the news is it's like acting as if this is news is just weird
00:34:21.500
of course don't you think that the united states would want to set up a public government in
00:34:27.340
in mexico let's say if it could of course we would of course we'd want a puppet government in our
00:34:34.540
on our border who doesn't want a puppet government on their border
00:34:40.220
seriously is there anything that you would want more than a puppet government on your border i can't
00:34:46.620
think of anything i'd want more than that so to say that that's news is weird so the grocery store
00:34:51.740
supply chain's getting worse uh because of covid and all the usual reasons um and then the supply
00:35:00.060
chain itself being crap but on top of that apparently the biden administration is now requiring that
00:35:06.940
anybody coming in the country uh has to show vaccination status and be vaccinated which as uh
00:35:15.580
as adam townsend pointed out on twitter assuming this applies to truckers coming across our northern
00:35:24.700
and southern borders what happens to our supply chain when the truckers can't come across the border or a
00:35:32.780
lot of them because they're not vaccinated did biden just destroy civilization because there aren't that
00:35:41.580
many decisions you can make as a president that would destroy civilization you know nuclear war might
00:35:46.860
do it bad economics might do it but it seems to me if biden is taking our weakest point of civilization
00:35:57.580
right now which is our supply chain it's the weakest link in civilization i mean maybe i'm exaggerating but
00:36:05.500
it seems to me that the supply chain is the weakest link in in all of civilization right now at the moment
00:36:11.820
and he's taken the weakest link and he just kneecapped it he just knocked it out because the weakest link
00:36:18.460
is the truckers and he just basically handicapped them now they can't even come across the border
00:36:23.980
what the hell is that going to do to our store shelves now by the way i would like to take some credit
00:36:33.100
in the beginning of the pandemic many of you remember i was doing my swaddling simultaneous
00:36:37.980
swaddling and doing two shows a day to tell you that civilization was not going to end with supply
00:36:44.300
shortages etc and to tell you that economically we would be fine because we're really good at adjusting
00:36:51.980
and what happened it turns out we're really really good at adjusting so for even where we had a lot we
00:36:58.060
have lots of shortages of products that you know may be the ones you wanted but they do have
00:37:04.060
substitutes and i just bought other food and did other things um
00:37:13.020
jeff says he walked across the southern border the other day and didn't ask get asked for anything
00:37:16.780
i think it's brand new the uh the passport thing is new so that hasn't happened yet um
00:37:25.100
anyway i don't know it looks like biden is doing something that could destroy civilization and what
00:37:31.020
is the upside now of course the the rule is not about just truckers it's about anybody coming across
00:37:36.540
but if you don't exempt the truckers like what what is it what are you going to gain by having truckers
00:37:44.540
coming across the border vaccinated or not it's just like one person and they probably got omicron if
00:37:50.300
they have anything so i can't imagine trump doing this can you i i believe that trump has maybe a stronger
00:37:59.260
sense of uh risk management or something but i can't see trump doing this and i think biden did
00:38:05.900
something that has at least some chance of creating some kind of a cascade effect that just ends
00:38:11.180
civilization as we know it who risks civilization itself for just getting some truckers vaccinated
00:38:19.180
like that is the worst risk management i've ever seen honestly come up with anything that's worse
00:38:25.660
risk management than than uh crippling the supply chain when it's already crippled
00:38:33.340
um trying to unilaterally federalize the truckers i don't think so i don't really see a hint of that
00:38:42.380
i mean anything's possible i suppose i don't see any hints of that
00:38:47.660
um i've decided uh how to settle this whole ukraine russia thing
00:38:51.660
and what's funny is that i actually do have the solution like this this is the non-hyperbole
00:38:58.860
solution this is an actual solution and it goes like this so uh putin has asked for two things
00:39:06.700
that we don't want to give them one is a promise that ukraine won't enter nato which we don't want to
00:39:12.780
do and they promise not to put offensive weapons in ukraine offensive pointed toward russia which we don't
00:39:20.540
want to agree to now uh the offer of course would require probably us uh telling them to move their
00:39:30.860
troops back from the border and if it didn't specifically include that we could obviously add that
00:39:36.300
so here's how you solve the problem accept his offer accept the offer now how many of you just said
00:39:47.980
peace in our time how many of you just said oh chamberlain neville chamberlain you're appeasing a
00:39:55.580
dictator is that appeasing a dictator let me let me tell you what i think is appeasing a dictator
00:40:03.820
a dictator threatens you and asks for something and then you give it to him wouldn't you agree that
00:40:10.620
that that would be appeasing a dictator and getting nothing in return so if we were to give putin what
00:40:15.740
he asked for and get nothing in return would that be appeasing a dictator on paper it would wouldn't it
00:40:27.500
somebody somebody says glad scott is not our negotiator well you're going to change your mind in a
00:40:32.220
moment all right you want me to tell you why this works and why you think it won't it works because
00:40:39.900
putin can't keep his side of the deal so here's our side of the deal yes we we completely accept we will
00:40:46.620
not we will not bring nato in we will not put offensive weapons in ukraine in return you putin will
00:40:53.500
cease all hostilities so you will move your troops away from the border and you will cease cyber attacks
00:40:59.660
you'll cease cyber attacks and you'll cease bribing officials and whatever else bad they're doing
00:41:06.220
right what are the chances that by that putin can keep his side of the deal
00:41:13.420
is there any is there even the slightest chance that putin would keep his side of the deal and stop
00:41:19.020
hacking and influencing no this is the genius of my idea we would never be committed to what we promised
00:41:27.500
but we could call his bluff and say absolutely we'll take your deal and in return you'll move
00:41:34.780
your troops away from the border and you'll stop cyber hacking now what happens the next day when they
00:41:41.100
cyber hack us deals off but we don't have to tell them that we could just introduce nato anytime we want it
00:41:50.140
right because they're breaking they're going to be breaking the deal on day one so we would have
00:41:56.700
promised something wait for it we would have promised to give them everything they wanted
00:42:03.420
under the condition that they comply but our promise would be worth nothing
00:42:11.260
our promise to give him everything he wanted would have no value and no uh no binding power because he would
00:42:18.700
never do his part but he would have to pull his troops back so it would lock him in a no-win deal
00:42:26.700
either he pulls his troops back and gets nothing or he's revealed to be not negotiating in good faith
00:42:34.220
and he can't handle either one of those situations just accept the deal
00:42:40.540
we give him nothing now the problem is it would look like we gave him something right because people
00:42:45.900
are not sophisticated they look at a deal like that and they say it looks like he gave him everything
00:42:50.380
my god you've just appeased a dictator but i think biden could sell it directly the way i just sold it
00:42:57.180
i think he could say in public here's the deal we're going to say yes to russia because we don't think
00:43:03.820
there's the slightest chance they can keep their side of the deal and if they don't keep their side of
00:43:08.380
the deal what we've given them doesn't have any value because we can just change our minds and put
00:43:13.100
offensive weapons there tomorrow we could put in nato tomorrow if we wanted to right so literally
00:43:20.940
what he's asking for is nothing and we're not giving it to him and we're going to be on the brink of a
00:43:28.460
nuclear war wait for it because a guy who asked for nothing didn't get it
00:43:35.820
we're on the brink of a nuclear war because a guy who asked for literally nothing we refuse to give
00:43:51.020
i'm not wrong he asked for fucking nothing and we're going to go we'll maybe have a nuclear war
00:44:05.500
i'm looking at your comments because i think i really fucked up all your brains right now
00:44:11.420
how many of you are having a thought that could work seriously how many of you thinking wait a
00:44:17.900
minute that could actually work i'm seeing a lot of yeses i don't see any noes i see one now okay
00:44:31.740
yeah now am i also wrong that this is the most obvious play in the world it doesn't cost anything
00:44:39.660
it really doesn't now i've told you before that and especially with this german head of their navy
00:44:45.340
getting fired over saying we should be closer to to russia the there are two nuclear considerations
00:44:54.540
that we keep not talking about and it's the only thing we should be talking about number one ukraine
00:45:01.740
has to be protected because they gave up their nukes we cannot allow a country to give up their nukes
00:45:10.140
willingly and then get attacked we cannot allow that and i'll go further we should make russia sign
00:45:18.780
an agreement to that effect china too they wouldn't sign but i'll bet we could offer to russia let's
00:45:27.020
make an offer or let's make an offer to here's what we should do even if it's rejected in order to to
00:45:34.060
create a counter narrative the biden administration should say we'd like a a deal among the nuclear
00:45:41.580
powers that will defend any country that gives up its nukes voluntarily
00:45:46.780
now nobody's gonna sign that deal right that would be too hard to get that deal but you want that
00:45:53.500
narrative in the air you want it in the air that a big question is how to deal with the country that
00:45:59.580
gave up its nukes we cannot cannot cannot cannot let that country be invaded and it wouldn't matter what
00:46:08.380
country it is it doesn't matter if it's ukraine doesn't matter if it's on the border of this or that
00:46:12.460
doesn't matter how strategic it is none of it matters all that matters is that deal that if you
00:46:20.060
gave up your nukes you were protected that's got to stand and by the way that's got to apply to iran too
00:46:28.220
it's got to apply to iran if iran were to i can't imagine they do it but if iran gives up their nukes
00:46:34.140
we have to guarantee them permanent autonomy you know unless they're attacking us or something
00:46:43.100
but we got to get really serious about that number two that's just the first nuclear that's who owns
00:46:48.700
earth earth will be owned by whoever controls space it's going to be china if it's not the united
00:46:55.500
the united states plus russia plus some other allies so we should be talking today about a space
00:47:03.020
alliance with russia a military space alliance and and even though that's like it seems like it's
00:47:12.220
speculative and it's way on the future that that creates a narrative that we're on that direction
00:47:18.860
so one of the things you want to do is say here's where we're going to end up
00:47:22.540
so that will define what we do today because i keep telling people we will be allies with russia
00:47:30.300
we will be like every part of history biology common sense interest economics like basically on
00:47:39.340
every single level the the arc of you know required history is that we're going to be allies
00:47:45.900
we're going to be allies right so as long as you know it's going to happen why would you mess around
00:47:50.940
with all the stuff in between it's just nonsense if you know where you're going to end up get rid
00:47:56.380
of all the nonsense and just go there so the nuclear argument has not been made by the biden
00:48:02.860
administration a gigantic error gigantic gigantic persuasion error it's really a bad one in my opinion
00:48:11.740
so uh okay now i've solved the uh ukraine standoff what else we got going on here
00:48:17.820
do you know why uh joe manchin and kirsten cinema will never run for president as a
00:48:27.660
in the comments why will mansion and cinema never run as a president vice president ticket
00:48:37.660
somebody got the answer right away you locals people are too darn smart because it would be a
00:48:43.260
demotion at the moment manchin and cinema run the country if they were if they became president and
00:48:50.460
vice president they wouldn't have any power they would have to give up power to become president
00:48:58.860
you want to uh here's a a uh how i could run the country
00:49:03.580
um i moved to a small state let's say it's a rhode island or arkansas or some some small state
00:49:15.340
um and i lived there for enough years i've become a citizen and you know so let's say five years
00:49:20.460
five years after i live there and i wait for some let's say i go somewhere where there's a weak
00:49:25.500
senator so there's a senator there that's going to retire or maybe it's not so weak so it's a small
00:49:31.260
state and i run for the senate and of course i would win because i would be in a small state
00:49:41.580
against a weak senator and i have name recognition i mean it wouldn't take that much right so i become
00:49:47.420
a senator in a small state and uh i would run as a democrat no hold on hold on the whole point is how
00:49:54.860
i'm going to take over the world so don't worry if i register as democrat it's all part of my plot to
00:49:59.500
take over the world so i went as a democrat um and by the way i wouldn't be lying to say that you
00:50:06.140
know if i were to characterize myself as either a republican or democrat i think i could back either
00:50:12.220
one of those because i wouldn't have exactly the same policies of either one so i could kind of pick
00:50:18.700
i would either be a republican who didn't agree with all the republican stuff or i'd be a democrat who
00:50:24.140
didn't agree with all the democrat stuff so either way i go i'm i'm gonna be an odd duck so i just go
00:50:29.980
as a democrat become a democrat and then uh there would be three swing votes and here i'm imagining that
00:50:37.740
things stayed the same which which won't happen so it's just speculative um now imagine if there were
00:50:43.660
three people mansion cinema and me who would run the country then if there were three people
00:51:02.540
i'm pretty sure i would because i'm more persuasive than they are and again it's not because i'm awesome
00:51:09.660
if that's what you're hearing nothing like that's being said i'm saying that i have a specific skill
00:51:15.100
set i'm literally a trained hypnotist if you put a trained hypnotist with two other people
00:51:21.660
and you have me work with them for a long time they're just going to agree with me in the end
00:51:27.820
right they'll think they made up their own mind but that won't be what's happening i mean i've been
00:51:34.060
on a jury trial and i can tell you they didn't make up their own mind i made up their mind for them
00:51:39.020
and told them what they were going to do and then they voted that way so they it's so weird to think
00:51:46.860
that the pathway to me running the entire country is actually it's like right there all i'd have to do
00:51:53.340
is get that position through a weak state and and then just do what i do i have no base but i would you
00:52:01.180
know trump didn't have a base when he started he had under what like he had like 13 support on day
00:52:07.420
one or something you build a base you don't you don't find a base
00:52:13.500
now let me give you my view of why a a non-traditional candidate has a wide open path
00:52:21.100
here's my view of the democrats and the republicans democrats are better at expressing goals
00:52:30.540
expressing goals in other words saying we'd like everybody to have a
00:52:35.180
fair shake and you know we'd like everything to be fair and everybody eat and not go to jail
00:52:41.900
so if you're just expressing the goal i think democrats do it way better if you're looking at
00:52:47.660
how to make anything work to build a system that works that's all republican i i would associate the
00:52:55.340
republicans and this is unfairly i'll tell you why it's unfairly i would associate republicans with
00:53:00.860
capitalism which is messy but it works democracy and the republic it's messy but it works the
00:53:08.460
the constitution it's imperfect but it works and basically the republicans consistently get the the
00:53:16.220
human motivation part of their systems correct you have to be a little bit tough you got to build in
00:53:22.060
some tough love into your systems or they just don't work the democrats don't like the tough love part
00:53:28.380
um as uh sean ono lennon tweeted in order to be uh fully woke you have to believe that two wrongs make a
00:53:38.860
right i just thought about that all night my god that's true in order to be woke you have to believe
00:53:47.900
the two wrongs make a right i thought that fits just about everything doesn't it and and then that
00:53:56.780
gets to my point that the democrats consistently get the motivation part all right so here's the opening
00:54:01.740
for a non-traditional uh candidate the non-traditional candidate would take what the democrats do well
00:54:09.020
which is expressing where you'd like to end up with a good world and combine it with what the republicans
00:54:15.580
do well which is create a little bit tough love in their systems but their systems that work and say
00:54:23.580
all right i like the best of both i want the practicality of the republicans but it needs to
00:54:30.220
be married with the directional goodness of the democrats that doesn't mean the democrats get everything
00:54:37.100
they want i'm not saying that i'm saying you want to get to the best world for everybody however you
00:54:43.420
want to describe it it's just that you need good systems to get there so i i think there's just this
00:54:50.380
gigantic lane for somebody to agree with the democrats on where they'd like to get a world with no
00:54:56.700
discrimination etc but describe it as something that only a good system will get you completely
00:55:04.860
wide open path there's nobody who could even handle that you could walk into the presidency with that
00:55:10.940
message all right uh if you follow the account on twitter uh by ethical skeptic and by the way you
00:55:18.860
should this is one of the stronger accounts on twitter if you want to get context and good data and stuff on
00:55:26.220
stuff so follow ethical skeptic and here's what he updates us with he says as omicron crests at 99.5
00:55:34.220
percent of cases this is in the u.s uh deaths continue to persist so deaths are still higher
00:55:41.420
than you would expect under omicron but it's because the delta deaths are still you know they're still
00:55:47.180
lagging uh but also the sheer number of omicron even though the death rate is small there's just so
00:55:54.220
many of them that that's still going to be a biggish number but we should be very close
00:56:00.300
say within nine seven days or so maybe within a week we might be within a week of the delta death
00:56:10.220
cases being cleared from the data just in time for february 1st
00:56:17.580
just in time so is february 1st going to hold i don't know i don't know um
00:56:30.700
my blinking is once again crazy yeah i always blink too much i'm not sure if that's a neurological
00:56:37.020
problem somebody's asked me about that before when i blink a lot i'm not sure if that means anything
00:56:42.620
i think it's neurological actually all right uh if i leave my home as i did last night and turn
00:56:50.940
right uh if i go to a restaurant to the right i need a vaccine passport if i leave my house and turn
00:57:01.100
left and go the same distance i don't need one it's a different county so um i'd forgotten about that and
00:57:07.900
went to a restaurant last night with christina and uh and uh it was in danville and the uh they
00:57:14.300
required a vaccine passport and i luckily i had it on my phone so we both we both had it but um it
00:57:22.380
was a friday night and it was a high-end restaurant in the middle of uh danville which is you know sort
00:57:28.300
of a happening uh local place how many what what do you think was the capacity of the restaurant that
00:57:34.540
requires vaccine passports and by the way the food was very good restaurant was excellent service was
00:57:41.180
excellent ambiance quite good um food quite good good selection so the restaurant itself was great
00:57:50.220
it was about uh i estimated 20 capacity on a on a friday night now if i had turned left
00:57:58.300
and gone to the restaurants that do not require a vaccine passport what do you think the capacity
00:58:04.140
was at the same time on a friday night i don't know but it's almost always 80 percent and by seven
00:58:13.580
o'clock it would be 100 percent if i turn left where there's no vaccine passports on a friday night you
00:58:20.380
can't get a table on a friday night when i turned right where they required them it was all tables in fact
00:58:28.300
we were the only ones sitting inside there were some outdoor tables because it was cold now some
00:58:33.820
people said to me scott it might actually be a feature that they require that because the people
00:58:39.340
who actually want to go out to eat and don't want to get infected might be a lot happier if everybody
00:58:45.020
there has a vaccine passport to which i say have you ever met a frightened person that's not how that's
00:58:51.820
not how fear works there's nobody who's going to say i'm afraid of the virus but i'll still go to a
00:58:58.140
packed restaurant as long as they showed their vaccine cards even though the virus is is breaking
00:59:03.900
through the vaccinations like a hot knife through butter there's literally nobody who would make that
00:59:10.300
choice i mean nobody's smart if you're afraid of it you're going to stay home you're not going to go
00:59:16.060
where there's a bunch of vaccinated people breathing on you because you know that that's not going to stop
00:59:20.140
you from getting it even your vaccination isn't going to stop you we know that now so i don't
00:59:26.060
think there was any feature through this i think that there are restaurants sitting on one border
00:59:31.980
who are not getting business because of the vaccine passport and and or at least at the very least
00:59:37.020
they're losing 20 of their business right because we have a pretty pretty high vaccination rate here
00:59:41.740
but i'll bet they lose 20 of their business you know maybe i saw a weird night but it looked pretty
00:59:53.980
and uh that is about all i had to talk about today
01:00:02.700
february 1st what are we going to do how are we going to handle that now most of you are
01:00:09.100
past past that you don't have these uh restrictions but for those of us who do
01:00:13.820
i would hope that uh you know we could get some support from the rest of you to get some freedom
01:00:19.500
in our state you know i do actually think that we need to wait a week in california yeah that's not
01:00:26.060
crazy to me i mean we all want it to be done right away but given that the uh what we should see is that
01:00:32.700
the deaths should fall off a table in the next few days let's wait for the deaths to fall off the table
01:00:39.340
you know to to plunge and then at least the government has their fake because
01:00:44.860
which actually would be a real because so i think the government just needs they did what
01:00:56.140
okay so something i have predicted too soon you know what i would accept i would accept on february
01:01:03.980
1st a date certain for dropping the requirements so in california i think we'll be the last to go
01:01:12.140
that's my guess i think we'll be last but even on february 1st i think the governor could say
01:01:18.220
you know we're going to shoot for february 8th or whatever the date is um i i think the governor
01:01:31.980
all right um now i'm thinking that on february 1st i'm going to avoid anywhere that requires
01:01:38.700
a mask or a vaccination passport i'll see how long i can hold that now you know it's not going to hurt
01:01:45.660
the grocery store because i'm still just ordered online but i do think we could put some pain
01:01:52.940
on anybody who's requiring mandates and that it might it might be helpful
01:01:59.980
moving the goalposts um i have i'll tell you the least respect for i have for everybody who had an
01:02:08.780
opinion on the uh the pandemic is the moving the goalpost comment there are lots of cases
01:02:15.580
where people just move the goalposts it's fair to call that out but in a pandemic where all the
01:02:21.420
information is changing and we're guessing and we're learning and stuff well if you're stuck on
01:02:27.660
whether the goalposts got moved i i just don't think that's good thinking because everything got
01:02:34.300
moved the data got moved just everything got moved so of course the goalposts move because everything's
01:02:41.180
moving why why wouldn't they move uh yeah it's just called adjusting for new data
01:02:52.140
all right uh the vax damaged my blinking now i always had this blinking thing that's a lifelong thing
01:03:09.660
oh is today the march today's the anti-mandate march in dc
01:03:15.260
um how do you think this time will be seen by posterity really it's really going to be a mixed
01:03:30.140
bag i i think historians are going to have uh just complete opposite takes on this in every way
01:03:35.980
all right let's see i just saw some data coming through uh provisional death counts for coronary
01:03:46.140
disease on 2019 okay all right that's all i got for now um i would say that uh solving a nuclear
01:03:56.620
confrontation in ukraine is i don't want to brag but i think that's pretty good work for one live stream
01:04:06.380
anybody anybody i think that's pretty good work for one live stream and by the way you know i've said
01:04:13.500
this before that um you act like my virtual brain you know there there's like a high of mind thing that
01:04:20.540
happens here and there's no such thing as me having any kind of an idea that i'm not going to uh run
01:04:26.940
through you guys so the the the idea of solving the russia thing by just accepting their deal and
01:04:33.660
understanding we didn't really give them anything for it um that's only useful if all of you heard
01:04:40.860
it and said oh that could work which actually happened that actually happened so i actually had a
01:04:48.620
a thought but it doesn't really become you know activated until it gets past all your filters and
01:04:55.500
weirdly it did so we'll see what happens let's see what happens and that is my show for today i feel
01:05:03.820
like the best one of all time and i'll talk to you tomorrow