Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1632 Scott Adams： Nothing But Hoaxes and Fake News Today. There's Plenty of it

00:00:00.000 everybody and welcome to coffee with scott adams probably the best thing you'll ever experience in

00:00:06.360 your entire life you may feel some tingling early on don't worry the tingling is nothing to worry

00:00:12.960 about it's not a comorbidity it's actually a sign that your day is starting up right and man has it

00:00:20.460 started up right we got fake news we got hoaxes we got all kinds of stuff coming at you is china 0.99

00:00:27.360 listening you ask probably if they're not i'm gonna make sure that they do but first before we

00:00:36.540 get going how would you like to take it up a notch i know you would all you need is a copper mugger

00:00:40.180 a glass of tanker chelsea sign a canteen jug a flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite

00:00:45.200 beverage i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure it's the dopamine hit of

00:00:53.960 the day it's called the simultaneous slurp no sip sip it's not a slurp and it happens now go

00:01:01.740 uh oh your meme timing over on locals is excellent excellent

00:01:10.660 well i knew there would be a day eventually when a hundred percent of the news was hoaxes

00:01:21.640 now i don't know if we're quite there but at the end of this i want you to tell me

00:01:26.860 if there was any news that was real today

00:01:29.320 because it looks like it's all fake to me or at least uh partially let me start with uh the fake

00:01:37.320 news that fooled me for about uh half a minute until somebody told me it was fake news uh there was a

00:01:44.820 there's a fake old looking uh cartoon it looks like it was made in the 30s you know really black 1.00

00:01:51.240 and white and it looked like it presented itself as a story of how to take over the world by

00:01:58.100 introducing a fake weaponized virus and making everybody get vaccinations now when i looked at it

00:02:04.660 i thought huh that seems like a weird coincidence that somebody had a fictional plot in the 30s

00:02:11.840 that was similar to something that happened so i tweeted it thinking whoa that's a weird coincidence

00:02:17.380 but it's not a coincidence it's just a fraud so it wasn't it wasn't such a coincidence now of course

00:02:25.400 what happened when i uh tweeted what i thought people would see as a coincidence

00:02:30.660 well people thought that it was proof that everything they said was true that there was a global conspiracy

00:02:39.580 to introduce this virus and they'd been planning it since the 30s that wasn't what i had in mind

00:02:45.780 and people thought scott you finally woken up finally you woke up and found out this plot has

00:02:52.100 been brewing since the 30s and there's proof in that comic right there well that's not exactly what

00:02:58.400 happened it was more like i thought huh somebody had a fictional plot that just looked like the real

00:03:03.980 world that's what i thought it was but anyway i deleted it uh it is debunk here's a i am seeing things

00:03:14.280 that are just rocking my whole world i i saw some people who looked credible but on twitter you can't

00:03:23.060 really tell who were saying that it is a hoax to imagine that 75 percent of the people who are dying

00:03:29.640 from covid have comorbidities and that that hoax started with a abc news thing that they got wrong

00:03:39.220 and that from there it spread and that there's nothing like that going on

00:03:44.040 what is that possible is it possible that comorbidities didn't make a difference because i googled it

00:03:55.180 immediately of course and you know there were plenty of stories that suggested comorbidities

00:04:00.580 were you know triple the risk etc but have you heard this or is there something about the definition

00:04:07.160 of things um but but let me just ask you have you heard anybody push back on that like the entire

00:04:17.640 thing was a hoax and the comorbidities didn't really predict as much as you thought

00:04:21.940 has anybody said that because i'm seeing people actually debunk it like oh it's well known it's

00:04:27.640 been debunked that comorbidity thing has been totally debunked because i would be really interested

00:04:34.020 if that were true because i can't imagine that's true yeah and nobody else saw that right so this might

00:04:43.780 be one of those news bubble things where there might be a bubble where where people think that's been

00:04:49.040 debunked and i think that's been debunked and i think that the idea of it was

00:04:52.480 market trader but i'm just gonna get rid of stupid people like you really need to take your criticism 0.95

00:05:02.160 up to a level of not fucking idiot really so market trader you're gonna go in the in the biz bag here 0.96

00:05:11.520 um just raise your game a little bit just a little bit a little bit

00:05:19.440 all right um but it made me think that maybe the purpose of that was to make people think that they

00:05:28.000 were not safe and they better get their vaccinations i don't know well i don't know what the purpose of it

00:05:33.340 will be there's another uh hoax and or hoax about the hoax you decide and the hoax or the hoax about

00:05:42.300 the hoax uh apparently china is doing a big push to it looks like they bought off some influencers

00:05:51.660 and the influencers that are apparently bought off by china are saying that there's no uyghur genocide

00:05:57.660 so you're seeing a bunch of you know social media things on that uyghur genocide there's nothing like 0.99

00:06:06.540 that going on now here's the clever part they're defining genocide very narrowly to be you know mass

00:06:16.060 killing or mass you know stopping birth rate one of those things and uh the people who china has 0.71

00:06:23.580 apparently bought off to influence is saying no no there is no genocide and stop saying genocide

00:06:30.380 because that would say we're killing people and that's not what's happening and we're not doing

00:06:34.540 anything about the birth rate because the birth rate in the the uyghur territory is actually higher

00:06:39.260 than the birth rate in the rest of the country so and the uyghurs would have more children than the 1.00

00:06:46.620 chinese ethnic chinese elsewhere had you ever heard that that the uyghurs were were having more 1.00

00:06:53.180 children even during the time that china was clamping down and having children they gave a little bit 0.84

00:06:59.180 of extra leeway i guess for cultural reasons um of the uyghurs they claim they claim who knows who

00:07:07.020 knows what's true that's just the claim right i'm not saying it's true just the claim but

00:07:14.860 if uh if what china wanted us to believe is that there's nothing especially bad going on whatsoever

00:07:21.340 except that they're dealing with a what was a pretty big terrorism problem in that community

00:07:26.860 and they've figured out a way to would say that and all they're doing is sort of re-educating people

00:07:33.580 to not be terrorists how how could that be bad well here's my question to you china if any of that is

00:07:42.060 true why don't you let us take a look you don't have to tell us what's true you don't have to correct the

00:07:49.740 hoax you don't have to do anything just open the door here let me tell you how to i'd like to

00:07:57.420 demonstrate this for china in case they don't know how to solve their gigantic gigantic pr problem 1.00

00:08:04.300 see i don't have a good prop but but imagine i was holding a key in my hand and i would like to teach

00:08:11.260 them how to solve this gigantic problem you invite some reporters in from other countries and then you

00:08:18.860 walk over to the the door behind which is all the uyghurs being either re-educated or retrained or 1.00

00:08:27.420 possibly massively abused in a human rights sense now if you'd like to clear it up

00:08:34.540 we'll take a little item it's probably about this big it's called a key and you would put that in the

00:08:40.220 lock of the front door of your uyghur retraining facilities and you'd turn it clockwise about this far

00:08:48.700 and then there might be some kind of a handle situation and then you would pull or maybe turn

00:08:53.100 that and then you would swing forward the thing called a door and then the people would walk through

00:09:00.620 that that door possibly look around and talk to the the uyghurs and they might come up with an opinion 1.00

00:09:08.940 that totally agreed with china maybe you know if you have a problem that can be solved that easily

00:09:18.060 wouldn't you do it if the worst problem that you had could be solved by doing this

00:09:24.540 hmm hmm and then you're done you're completely done you've just solved your biggest problem

00:09:36.060 hmm but apparently they would rather buy influence and have them talk about it

00:09:44.380 than to completely solve the problem by hmm hmm i guess china hadn't figured out how to use the

00:09:53.420 fucking key now it's bad enough you haven't used the fucking spoon 0.99

00:09:58.460 because you got your chopsticks that's a that's a jerry seinfeld joke by the way i'm stealing that

00:10:05.420 you know it's bad enough that you couldn't figure out how to use a spoon

00:10:09.260 you had to use chopsticks i'm just joking about that part

00:10:12.300 but you don't know how to use a key you don't know how to open a door say take a look

00:10:20.620 all right so remember you should assume anything that comes from a government is a lie unless they

00:10:26.540 can prove it's true the burden of proof is on the government not just the united states

00:10:32.060 but every government the burden of proof is on them to prove they're not doing something bad it's

00:10:37.420 not like an individual where the burden of proof is on the the state blah blah all right

00:10:46.780 um so i'm gonna say that's probably not a hoax it's probably a hoax it's a hoax

00:10:52.460 meanwhile uh china fired germany's navy chief which is weird so there was a guy who was the top guy in

00:11:00.620 germany's navy and uh china fired him for saying that uh that germany should get closer to russia

00:11:10.860 to to basically team up against china china didn't like that so they they fired him

00:11:18.620 now that's not the way it's reported if you've seen it reported they probably don't word it the way i did

00:11:24.460 they don't say china fired him but what else happened how do you explain it any other way

00:11:33.820 is there any other explanation do you think that russia put pressure on germany to say no no no fire

00:11:40.860 this guy because he keeps saying we should be friends with russia no it probably wasn't russia

00:11:44.860 um do you think that germany itself the people in germany uh are so offended by the idea that we should

00:11:55.340 have an out we should ally ally with russia against china is that idea so so you know unacceptable

00:12:06.060 that germany fired him for their own reasons

00:12:08.220 i think china fired him meaning that germany's relationship with china depended on him being

00:12:16.140 fired i literally i think china fired him if that doesn't scare you i don't know i will if china

00:12:24.060 can fire people in your government and i think that just happened in germany you better wouldn't be

00:12:30.620 worried all right here's another uh cnn fake news now it's fake in the sense that they're acting like it's

00:12:39.180 there's news why is this news apparently uh during or the aftermath of january 6th sean hannity of fox

00:12:48.140 news was messaging uh uh maca mackalady mackalady i could never remember i can never pronounce her last

00:12:54.700 name and was suggesting that trump uh tone it down or stop talking about the stolen election

00:13:03.020 now this is being reported as cnn's characterization as uh hannity and uh mackalady conspiring to control

00:13:14.460 trump is that what happened mack mack mackenney mackenney uh sorry i can't pronounce her last name um

00:13:24.940 but would you say that's a characterization that hannity uh was conspiring to control trump 0.78

00:13:34.460 isn't that the weirdest characterization

00:13:36.300 don't you think that every single uh person in trump's universe gave him advice do you think there was

00:13:47.260 anybody who didn't give him advice where every single person in his universe was just conspiring to control

00:13:53.900 him it's not conspiring to control him it's not conspiring okay mack mackenney said thank you mackenney

00:14:01.500 um

00:14:01.820 i was i think i was conflating her first and last names here

00:14:08.380 anyway why is it news that hannity would uh give some advice to trump or give advice through somebody

00:14:15.900 else to give to trump there's no story there at all is there it's like there's literally nothing there

00:14:22.060 it's stuff you already knew hannity knew trump trump would talk to hannity and get advice

00:14:30.700 if you i've said this before but i don't think cnn is quite

00:14:35.500 uh appreciating how valuable advice from hannity would be in this exact situation

00:14:43.740 think of anybody in the entire planet that would be a better source for advice

00:14:49.980 on just this specific topic how to handle the public and the politics of it

00:14:54.700 then hannity seriously who's more qualified than he is to give that exact advice how to handle this

00:15:02.220 situation and also laura ingram right who is more qualified than that tucker yeah same thing i mean 1.00

00:15:10.380 you can say you agree or disagree with their advice but i mean nobody's more qualified they're they're

00:15:16.300 about the most qualified people on the planet for that exact question how to handle the public

00:15:22.540 because they're the ones who handle the public every day you know they're sort of the gatekeepers of

00:15:27.100 opinion on the right so that's a that was a nothing story they tried to make into something all right

00:15:32.860 here's another uh hoax or not hoax you decide we of course may never know if the cove deaths were

00:15:40.940 accurately counted so i'm just i'm just joking we will know they were inaccurately counted am i right we will

00:15:48.940 know someday that they were definitely inaccurately counted are you with me so far but the degree

00:15:59.900 and the direction of that might still be a surprise and the reason i can say it's poorly counted is

00:16:05.980 because everything is early on right pretty much everything's poorly counted in the beginning you're

00:16:11.420 lucky if you can ever fix it so i'm sure it's poorly counted but i had estimated and this is based on

00:16:17.580 well let me give you some context for much of my corporate career i was a finance guy so i'd be

00:16:26.060 crunching numbers and making predictions and putting budgets together and stuff like that and one of the

00:16:31.500 things that happens that's really mysterious is that when you work with numbers and estimates and

00:16:38.860 predictions all day long and you're sort of immersed in it you develop this weird ability to estimate

00:16:44.940 things for which there's no information i don't know i don't understand it it's something that my

00:16:53.180 old boss could do because she did the job before i did it and she amazed me when i first took the job 1.00

00:16:59.820 where she would just make an estimate of something and she'd say i don't know i think that's going to

00:17:03.900 cost you about uh you know 1.2 million dollars with no with no work whatsoever and then i would do all

00:17:10.860 this work two weeks later and have everything collected and show it to her and it'd be like

00:17:15.900 1.2 million dollars i'd be like how the hell did you do that and she would say i don't know it's just

00:17:23.420 you know you just live and breathe this world and then you can just sort of guess what things are going

00:17:28.700 to cost now later i figured out is probably related to understanding what the market could handle

00:17:35.820 so she knew what things would cost not so much based on what the you know what it cost to make

00:17:42.060 that stuff that would be unknowable but sort of knowing if you're the the consumer which we were

00:17:48.060 we were the ones who decided what technology to buy if we were the consumers we kind of say you know

00:17:52.860 that sounds too expensive just you know if i'm a buyer uh that's relative to other things that just

00:17:59.900 sounds expensive and that's probably how prices are set prices are probably set based on how they

00:18:06.940 feel right you're going to charge as much as you can get until you cross the line where people say

00:18:13.180 that's too much so she just had this intuition after a while of what would be too much to charge

00:18:20.220 for anything so she could make an estimate of what something would cost without any information

00:18:26.220 any information about the thing we were looking at and i was always amazed by it until i developed

00:18:32.460 the same skill and i i always show off show this off to christina she's seen it a million times so

00:18:38.380 she's completely convinced we'll talk about something that i don't know anything about i'll say hi you

00:18:43.900 know i think that cost about that's going to be about thirty five hundred dollars and and weirdly i'll

00:18:50.700 i'll be right way more often than common sense would suggest and i think it's the same skill it's

00:18:57.820 not about how much it costs to make it it's about how much a consumer would pay for it because that's

00:19:03.660 going to be the price and you just sort of feel that after a while so anyway i took that skill or lack

00:19:11.260 of skill that has all the scientific backing of a horoscope and i applied it to the question of have

00:19:18.380 we over counted or under counted um covet deaths and my best guess with no information whatsoever

00:19:27.580 is that we over counted deaths by 25 percent would you like me to back that with sources

00:19:36.540 i don't have any all i have is a life experience which suggests that that's about how much you get

00:19:43.740 wrong before you close down the system so that so that's sort of the intuition behind it how bad could

00:19:52.300 the numbers be before it would just close the system in other words it would be so bad that the

00:19:58.700 whistleblowers couldn't resist right if you're ten percent off will that produce a whistleblower

00:20:06.220 probably not right i don't think i don't think a 10 error in counting would necessarily produce a

00:20:14.540 whistleblower because it wouldn't really change what we do right the all the techniques and mandates

00:20:22.300 and everything would be exactly the same so that so if it were only a ten percent you wouldn't produce

00:20:28.620 any whistleblowers at what level are you guaranteed to get whistleblowers the kind that just break the

00:20:36.220 whole system it's around 25 in a pandemic now how do i base that absolutely nothing but a lifetime of

00:20:46.860 experience let me see if i can explain it in a way that maybe your intuition will will get some traction

00:20:53.660 on this or not if the numbers were let me let me give you some extremes if the numbers were off by 500

00:21:01.980 from day one could we have gotten to this point without knowing that for sure i'd say no all of my

00:21:09.500 intuition says if it were that bad 500 off we it's just too noticeable likewise if it's only off by 10

00:21:18.540 i mean it doesn't even matter really because our decisions would be exactly the same somewhere between

00:21:27.180 500 and 10 percent things get murky in my sense of how things work where people start to notice things

00:21:37.820 put it in the context of a pandemic where you're going to need a bigger signal to notice right because

00:21:44.300 when you're in a fog of war 10 of anything doesn't stand out you're going to need something greater

00:21:51.420 than 25 percent before anybody even notices because there's just so much noise and variables and stuff

00:21:57.660 going on so my uh life experience says that the covid deaths in hospitals are maybe 25 percent

00:22:09.180 um overaccounted um overaccounted also because it would be too much of a financial scandal to be

00:22:16.060 too much more than that if a hospital got caught with a 25 percent overaccount and they had gotten

00:22:23.020 funding because of that could they defend themselves 25 percent probably i'll bet they could defend a 25

00:22:31.820 percent error could they defend a 50 percent error yes this is all this is all guessing speculation

00:22:39.260 intuition nothing more than that i don't think they could defend a 50 percent error so you would expect

00:22:45.580 that the hospitals if they had a financial motive would take the financial motive as far as they could

00:22:52.060 but just short of where they knew they could defend it when they got caught because you can defend an

00:22:58.300 error you can't defend it if it's intentional right 25 is about the point where anybody can explain

00:23:07.180 anything away as a mistake at 50 good luck good luck explaining a 50 difference 25 that's pushing it

00:23:17.340 but because as all of you have often said follow the money you would expect that the amount that they

00:23:22.540 thought they could get away with would be redlining right they would push that right to the max

00:23:27.100 under these situations right so i'm going to say 25 over counted and then i'm going to really make

00:23:35.900 you mad by saying that's probably exactly balanced by 25 under counted

00:23:44.220 i think we're also under counted by about 25 and that was based on a recent study in which they

00:23:50.140 actually looked to you know deep do a deep dive and found out how many people probably died of covid

00:23:56.060 that were not identified that were not identified as such because if somebody dies at home

00:24:01.820 you don't always know if they die and they've got a comorbidity maybe you didn't notice

00:24:07.020 etc now i wouldn't i wouldn't trust the study that says it was under counted by 25 do you know i

00:24:14.140 wouldn't trust the study

00:24:15.260 okay because it's data it's a study and it's 2022 who trusts any study in 2022 if you trust

00:24:25.660 anything in 2022 you've missed the entire lesson of the pandemic or the last five years really so no

00:24:32.540 i don't i don't trust that uh study but it does suggest that there might be something there in terms of

00:24:40.220 it's i do think the study probably proved there can be such a thing as under counting

00:24:47.100 i don't think i would go beyond that i don't think it can prove how much i think they could prove it exists

00:24:56.540 i do exactly this at work here's a comment over precision or sas apps such as or just shy of

00:25:02.220 20 so anything you ever bought a vendor will start asking you to pay more yeah 25 is sort of a

00:25:08.700 psychological uh barrier right things like 10 25 50 they have importance like a round number like 100

00:25:19.900 you know whatever the stock market reaches a round number like you know 16 000 or whatever it is

00:25:24.700 then then everybody starts talking about it so our brains are really focused on sort of metrics that

00:25:32.780 we snap to grid i like using that term we snap to grid on 10 25 50 that's why i think 25 is a reasonable

00:25:40.940 estimate so bottom line is we don't know how to count uh the uh the dead my personal estimate is that

00:25:48.460 we're roughly right because our over count and our under count probably came close to canceling each

00:25:54.380 other out but i wouldn't die on that hill i wouldn't bet on it if you asked me to you know put my actual

00:26:03.180 money on that uh prediction that we're going to be pretty close on the count because the overs and

00:26:08.460 unders cancel out i wouldn't bet money on it that's just sort of where my intuition takes me at the moment

00:26:15.420 all right uh rasmussen has some uh thoughts about the 2020 election so here's here's a tweet i'm just

00:26:23.820 gonna read you the tweet and so i don't get banned by social media i will tell you this is me talking

00:26:29.580 about somebody else's tweet as opposed to saying any of these things are factually true are we good

00:26:37.340 because it's you can talk about something without asserting it's true and then you still stay on

00:26:43.580 social media i'm pretty sure we'll find out i'm pretty sure that that keeps me safe all right

00:26:49.420 so rasmussen report has a twitter account and here's what they tweeted blockbuster 2020 election

00:26:57.740 integrity first item is wisconsin quote ghost voter army silently emerges from state election records i

00:27:05.820 don't know the details of that but i apparently there's some kind of phantom votes but i don't know from

00:27:12.620 the tweet whether that's a significant number or confirmed or anything else number two we see

00:27:18.220 evidence that third parties do have access to the voter rolls and can alter uh alter the outcomes

00:27:27.420 alter an item now the fact that somebody has access to it does that mean it happened it does not it

00:27:34.940 doesn't mean that they use that access to alter the vote it just means they had the they had the option

00:27:42.620 uh and here's the more interesting one over 115 000 voters over 100 years old voted in the 2020

00:27:51.180 election uh that would be more than all of the people over 100 years old in the entire country there are 97

00:27:59.420 000 people that age last we checked but 115 000 of them voted in the election which is a pretty good

00:28:09.180 turnout pretty good usually you're trying for 100 turnout but if you can get you know 110 120 turnout

00:28:16.860 within a demographic then i would say your get out the vote campaign has been very effective

00:28:22.780 so this is really a story about how they get out the vote campaign for the democrats was excellent because

00:28:28.540 not only did they get more than 100 of this group to vote uh but i'm pretty sure they all voted democrat

00:28:35.340 and you can't do better than that you can't do better than that all right this is probably fake news

00:28:41.020 sorry do you really think that there were more 100 year olds voting than exist do you think that's real

00:28:49.340 really here's the other explanation here's the other explanation that there were a number of databases in

00:29:00.220 smaller towns where the data was incomplete and when the data is incomplete it defaults to say you're

00:29:06.940 over 100 years old because it doesn't know how old you are it's just a just a software thing so which is

00:29:14.220 more which do you think is more likely that a known problem it's confirmed problem that if you don't have

00:29:20.700 the right data and some of the smaller towns i guess didn't have the data it's a known problem

00:29:26.380 that the software will make it look like you have too many hundred year olds

00:29:32.620 what sounds more reasonable we know the software does that or there were more hundred year olds that

00:29:39.580 voted than there are in the entire country meaning that meaning that there's something illegal going on

00:29:45.740 which is more likely

00:29:52.380 i'm looking at your answers well

00:29:56.380 um there's a scale problem so here's the pushback to the pushback all right so the claim is that too

00:30:03.820 many too many people of this over 100 years old voted and it couldn't possibly be true so let's accept 0.86

00:30:10.540 that it's not true all right let's see if we're all on the same page nobody thinks it's true

00:30:16.780 that there were more people who voted than existed right so we would all agree that no matter what

00:30:23.180 the answer of how this happened is what definitely didn't happen is that there were more hundred year

00:30:29.260 olds voting than exist all right we know that didn't happen so only two possibilities either fraud

00:30:35.580 or just a software thing that doesn't mean anything the the pushback on the software is that there

00:30:44.300 weren't that many towns and they weren't that big to make this much of a difference

00:30:52.460 i don't know i can't i can't fact check that with my own deep dive and doing my own research

00:30:57.180 so i'm going to leave that to you as your your uh your assignment if anybody wants to do their own

00:31:03.900 research find out if the small towns that were involved in this bad data if there were enough of

00:31:11.260 those small towns that it could possibly explain the discrepancy because you would imagine you would

00:31:20.300 imagine that this is exactly the group where the fraud would happen but it's also exactly the group where

00:31:25.820 the bad record keeping happens let me think if i were about to intentionally do some fraud would i do it

00:31:35.820 where the record keeping is really good or would i look for a place where the record keeping is so bad

00:31:45.340 that even when my fraud was detected you couldn't really suss it out

00:31:49.660 which would i pick the place where i would definitely get caught because the data was so

00:31:56.780 good they'd notice an anomaly or the place where the data is so bad i'd have a built-in reason when

00:32:02.780 somebody asks well it's that small town effect where would you hide your crime would you hide it where

00:32:09.900 you can't find it or it's obvious so there is no way to know with current data what was going on

00:32:17.740 with this number i will just tell the only thing i wanted you to know is that there are two stories

00:32:22.460 and with the data that we have right now i don't know that we can tell which one's real but if you

00:32:28.060 think that you're getting the straight story for sure well i would question that you know i think you're

00:32:35.180 i think your skepticism has to be set to 10 on this doesn't mean there was anything fraudulent

00:32:41.020 but your skepticism should be just pinned pinned to the right right until until your government can

00:32:49.340 make this go away and i don't know they can but until they can make this kind of question go away just

00:32:54.620 assume there's something wrong all right um this next category i'll call news of the obvious news of the

00:33:05.020 obvious this is where something that everybody knows is turned into breaking news all right early

00:33:12.700 saturday uh the the foreign commonwealth and development office in the uk they said that

00:33:19.020 they had information it must be secret information they got somehow suggesting that the russian plan

00:33:25.660 was in the works and that quote we have information that indicates the russian government

00:33:31.100 is looking to install a pro-russian leader in kiev ukraine as it considers whether to invade and occupy

00:33:39.260 ukraine a spokesman for the british agency said wow this is so shocking did anybody suspect that

00:33:49.660 putin might want to set up a puppet government in the ukraine if he couldn't own it outright who would

00:33:57.340 have ever seen that coming how about every single person who watches the news is there anybody who

00:34:04.540 didn't know that putin wants to set up a puppet government if he can't just you know outright take

00:34:11.260 the country what is the news here i think the news is it's like acting as if this is news is just weird

00:34:21.500 of course don't you think that the united states would want to set up a public government in

00:34:27.340 in mexico let's say if it could of course we would of course we'd want a puppet government in our

00:34:34.540 on our border who doesn't want a puppet government on their border

00:34:40.220 seriously is there anything that you would want more than a puppet government on your border i can't

00:34:46.620 think of anything i'd want more than that so to say that that's news is weird so the grocery store

00:34:51.740 supply chain's getting worse uh because of covid and all the usual reasons um and then the supply

00:35:00.060 chain itself being crap but on top of that apparently the biden administration is now requiring that

00:35:06.940 anybody coming in the country uh has to show vaccination status and be vaccinated which as uh

00:35:15.580 as adam townsend pointed out on twitter assuming this applies to truckers coming across our northern

00:35:24.700 and southern borders what happens to our supply chain when the truckers can't come across the border or a

00:35:32.780 lot of them because they're not vaccinated did biden just destroy civilization because there aren't that 0.94

00:35:41.580 many decisions you can make as a president that would destroy civilization you know nuclear war might

00:35:46.860 do it bad economics might do it but it seems to me if biden is taking our weakest point of civilization

00:35:57.580 right now which is our supply chain it's the weakest link in civilization i mean maybe i'm exaggerating but

00:36:05.500 it seems to me that the supply chain is the weakest link in in all of civilization right now at the moment

00:36:11.820 and he's taken the weakest link and he just kneecapped it he just knocked it out because the weakest link

00:36:18.460 is the truckers and he just basically handicapped them now they can't even come across the border

00:36:23.980 what the hell is that going to do to our store shelves now by the way i would like to take some credit 0.62

00:36:33.100 in the beginning of the pandemic many of you remember i was doing my swaddling simultaneous

00:36:37.980 swaddling and doing two shows a day to tell you that civilization was not going to end with supply

00:36:44.300 shortages etc and to tell you that economically we would be fine because we're really good at adjusting

00:36:51.980 and what happened it turns out we're really really good at adjusting so for even where we had a lot we

00:36:58.060 have lots of shortages of products that you know may be the ones you wanted but they do have

00:37:04.060 substitutes and i just bought other food and did other things um

00:37:13.020 jeff says he walked across the southern border the other day and didn't ask get asked for anything

00:37:16.780 i think it's brand new the uh the passport thing is new so that hasn't happened yet um

00:37:25.100 anyway i don't know it looks like biden is doing something that could destroy civilization and what

00:37:31.020 is the upside now of course the the rule is not about just truckers it's about anybody coming across

00:37:36.540 but if you don't exempt the truckers like what what is it what are you going to gain by having truckers

00:37:44.540 coming across the border vaccinated or not it's just like one person and they probably got omicron if

00:37:50.300 they have anything so i can't imagine trump doing this can you i i believe that trump has maybe a stronger

00:37:59.260 sense of uh risk management or something but i can't see trump doing this and i think biden did

00:38:05.900 something that has at least some chance of creating some kind of a cascade effect that just ends

00:38:11.180 civilization as we know it who risks civilization itself for just getting some truckers vaccinated 1.00

00:38:19.180 like that is the worst risk management i've ever seen honestly come up with anything that's worse

00:38:25.660 risk management than than uh crippling the supply chain when it's already crippled

00:38:33.340 um trying to unilaterally federalize the truckers i don't think so i don't really see a hint of that

00:38:42.380 i mean anything's possible i suppose i don't see any hints of that

00:38:47.660 um i've decided uh how to settle this whole ukraine russia thing

00:38:51.660 and what's funny is that i actually do have the solution like this this is the non-hyperbole

00:38:58.860 solution this is an actual solution and it goes like this so uh putin has asked for two things

00:39:06.700 that we don't want to give them one is a promise that ukraine won't enter nato which we don't want to 0.64

00:39:12.780 do and they promise not to put offensive weapons in ukraine offensive pointed toward russia which we don't

00:39:20.540 want to agree to now uh the offer of course would require probably us uh telling them to move their

00:39:30.860 troops back from the border and if it didn't specifically include that we could obviously add that

00:39:36.300 so here's how you solve the problem accept his offer accept the offer now how many of you just said

00:39:47.980 peace in our time how many of you just said oh chamberlain neville chamberlain you're appeasing a

00:39:55.580 dictator is that appeasing a dictator let me let me tell you what i think is appeasing a dictator

00:40:03.820 a dictator threatens you and asks for something and then you give it to him wouldn't you agree that

00:40:10.620 that that would be appeasing a dictator and getting nothing in return so if we were to give putin what

00:40:15.740 he asked for and get nothing in return would that be appeasing a dictator on paper it would wouldn't it

00:40:27.500 somebody somebody says glad scott is not our negotiator well you're going to change your mind in a

00:40:32.220 moment all right you want me to tell you why this works and why you think it won't it works because

00:40:39.900 putin can't keep his side of the deal so here's our side of the deal yes we we completely accept we will

00:40:46.620 not we will not bring nato in we will not put offensive weapons in ukraine in return you putin will

00:40:53.500 cease all hostilities so you will move your troops away from the border and you will cease cyber attacks

00:40:59.660 you'll cease cyber attacks and you'll cease bribing officials and whatever else bad they're doing

00:41:06.220 right what are the chances that by that putin can keep his side of the deal

00:41:13.420 is there any is there even the slightest chance that putin would keep his side of the deal and stop

00:41:19.020 hacking and influencing no this is the genius of my idea we would never be committed to what we promised

00:41:27.500 but we could call his bluff and say absolutely we'll take your deal and in return you'll move

00:41:34.780 your troops away from the border and you'll stop cyber hacking now what happens the next day when they

00:41:41.100 cyber hack us deals off but we don't have to tell them that we could just introduce nato anytime we want it

00:41:50.140 right because they're breaking they're going to be breaking the deal on day one so we would have

00:41:56.700 promised something wait for it we would have promised to give them everything they wanted

00:42:03.420 under the condition that they comply but our promise would be worth nothing

00:42:11.260 our promise to give him everything he wanted would have no value and no uh no binding power because he would

00:42:18.700 never do his part but he would have to pull his troops back so it would lock him in a no-win deal

00:42:26.700 either he pulls his troops back and gets nothing or he's revealed to be not negotiating in good faith

00:42:34.220 and he can't handle either one of those situations just accept the deal

00:42:40.540 we give him nothing now the problem is it would look like we gave him something right because people

00:42:45.900 are not sophisticated they look at a deal like that and they say it looks like he gave him everything

00:42:50.380 my god you've just appeased a dictator but i think biden could sell it directly the way i just sold it

00:42:57.180 i think he could say in public here's the deal we're going to say yes to russia because we don't think

00:43:03.820 there's the slightest chance they can keep their side of the deal and if they don't keep their side of

00:43:08.380 the deal what we've given them doesn't have any value because we can just change our minds and put

00:43:13.100 offensive weapons there tomorrow we could put in nato tomorrow if we wanted to right so literally

00:43:20.940 what he's asking for is nothing and we're not giving it to him and we're going to be on the brink of a

00:43:28.460 nuclear war wait for it because a guy who asked for nothing didn't get it

00:43:35.820 we're on the brink of a nuclear war because a guy who asked for literally nothing we refuse to give

00:43:44.380 him the nothing

00:43:48.380 am i wrong

00:43:51.020 i'm not wrong he asked for fucking nothing and we're going to go we'll maybe have a nuclear war 0.99

00:43:58.140 because we don't want to give him nothing

00:44:05.500 i'm looking at your comments because i think i really fucked up all your brains right now 0.99

00:44:11.420 how many of you are having a thought that could work seriously how many of you thinking wait a

00:44:17.900 minute that could actually work i'm seeing a lot of yeses i don't see any noes i see one now okay

00:44:26.060 um

00:44:31.740 yeah now am i also wrong that this is the most obvious play in the world it doesn't cost anything

00:44:39.660 it really doesn't now i've told you before that and especially with this german head of their navy

00:44:45.340 getting fired over saying we should be closer to to russia the there are two nuclear considerations

00:44:54.540 that we keep not talking about and it's the only thing we should be talking about number one ukraine

00:45:01.740 has to be protected because they gave up their nukes we cannot allow a country to give up their nukes

00:45:10.140 willingly and then get attacked we cannot allow that and i'll go further we should make russia sign

00:45:18.780 an agreement to that effect china too they wouldn't sign but i'll bet we could offer to russia let's

00:45:27.020 make an offer or let's make an offer to here's what we should do even if it's rejected in order to to

00:45:34.060 create a counter narrative the biden administration should say we'd like a a deal among the nuclear

00:45:41.580 powers that will defend any country that gives up its nukes voluntarily

00:45:46.780 now nobody's gonna sign that deal right that would be too hard to get that deal but you want that

00:45:53.500 narrative in the air you want it in the air that a big question is how to deal with the country that

00:45:59.580 gave up its nukes we cannot cannot cannot cannot let that country be invaded and it wouldn't matter what 0.96

00:46:08.380 country it is it doesn't matter if it's ukraine doesn't matter if it's on the border of this or that

00:46:12.460 doesn't matter how strategic it is none of it matters all that matters is that deal that if you

00:46:20.060 gave up your nukes you were protected that's got to stand and by the way that's got to apply to iran too

00:46:28.220 it's got to apply to iran if iran were to i can't imagine they do it but if iran gives up their nukes

00:46:34.140 we have to guarantee them permanent autonomy you know unless they're attacking us or something

00:46:43.100 but we got to get really serious about that number two that's just the first nuclear that's who owns

00:46:48.700 earth earth will be owned by whoever controls space it's going to be china if it's not the united 1.00

00:46:55.500 the united states plus russia plus some other allies so we should be talking today about a space

00:47:03.020 alliance with russia a military space alliance and and even though that's like it seems like it's

00:47:12.220 speculative and it's way on the future that that creates a narrative that we're on that direction

00:47:18.860 so one of the things you want to do is say here's where we're going to end up

00:47:22.540 so that will define what we do today because i keep telling people we will be allies with russia

00:47:30.300 we will be like every part of history biology common sense interest economics like basically on

00:47:39.340 every single level the the arc of you know required history is that we're going to be allies

00:47:45.900 we're going to be allies right so as long as you know it's going to happen why would you mess around

00:47:50.940 with all the stuff in between it's just nonsense if you know where you're going to end up get rid

00:47:56.380 of all the nonsense and just go there so the nuclear argument has not been made by the biden

00:48:02.860 administration a gigantic error gigantic gigantic persuasion error it's really a bad one in my opinion

00:48:11.740 so uh okay now i've solved the uh ukraine standoff what else we got going on here

00:48:17.820 do you know why uh joe manchin and kirsten cinema will never run for president as a

00:48:23.820 president vice president ticket

00:48:27.660 in the comments why will mansion and cinema never run as a president vice president ticket

00:48:37.660 somebody got the answer right away you locals people are too darn smart because it would be a

00:48:43.260 demotion at the moment manchin and cinema run the country if they were if they became president and

00:48:50.460 vice president they wouldn't have any power they would have to give up power to become president

00:48:58.860 you want to uh here's a a uh how i could run the country

00:49:03.580 um i moved to a small state let's say it's a rhode island or arkansas or some some small state

00:49:15.340 um and i lived there for enough years i've become a citizen and you know so let's say five years

00:49:20.460 five years after i live there and i wait for some let's say i go somewhere where there's a weak

00:49:25.500 senator so there's a senator there that's going to retire or maybe it's not so weak so it's a small

00:49:31.260 state and i run for the senate and of course i would win because i would be in a small state

00:49:41.580 against a weak senator and i have name recognition i mean it wouldn't take that much right so i become

00:49:47.420 a senator in a small state and uh i would run as a democrat no hold on hold on the whole point is how

00:49:54.860 i'm going to take over the world so don't worry if i register as democrat it's all part of my plot to

00:49:59.500 take over the world so i went as a democrat um and by the way i wouldn't be lying to say that you

00:50:06.140 know if i were to characterize myself as either a republican or democrat i think i could back either

00:50:12.220 one of those because i wouldn't have exactly the same policies of either one so i could kind of pick

00:50:18.700 i would either be a republican who didn't agree with all the republican stuff or i'd be a democrat who

00:50:24.140 didn't agree with all the democrat stuff so either way i go i'm i'm gonna be an odd duck so i just go

00:50:29.980 as a democrat become a democrat and then uh there would be three swing votes and here i'm imagining that

00:50:37.740 things stayed the same which which won't happen so it's just speculative um now imagine if there were

00:50:43.660 three people mansion cinema and me who would run the country then if there were three people

00:50:56.220 me mansion and cinema

00:51:02.540 i'm pretty sure i would because i'm more persuasive than they are and again it's not because i'm awesome

00:51:09.660 if that's what you're hearing nothing like that's being said i'm saying that i have a specific skill

00:51:15.100 set i'm literally a trained hypnotist if you put a trained hypnotist with two other people

00:51:21.660 and you have me work with them for a long time they're just going to agree with me in the end

00:51:27.820 right they'll think they made up their own mind but that won't be what's happening i mean i've been

00:51:34.060 on a jury trial and i can tell you they didn't make up their own mind i made up their mind for them

00:51:39.020 and told them what they were going to do and then they voted that way so they it's so weird to think

00:51:46.860 that the pathway to me running the entire country is actually it's like right there all i'd have to do

00:51:53.340 is get that position through a weak state and and then just do what i do i have no base but i would you

00:52:01.180 know trump didn't have a base when he started he had under what like he had like 13 support on day

00:52:07.420 one or something you build a base you don't you don't find a base

00:52:13.500 now let me give you my view of why a a non-traditional candidate has a wide open path

00:52:21.100 here's my view of the democrats and the republicans democrats are better at expressing goals

00:52:30.540 expressing goals in other words saying we'd like everybody to have a

00:52:35.180 fair shake and you know we'd like everything to be fair and everybody eat and not go to jail

00:52:41.900 so if you're just expressing the goal i think democrats do it way better if you're looking at

00:52:47.660 how to make anything work to build a system that works that's all republican i i would associate the

00:52:55.340 republicans and this is unfairly i'll tell you why it's unfairly i would associate republicans with

00:53:00.860 capitalism which is messy but it works democracy and the republic it's messy but it works the

00:53:08.460 the constitution it's imperfect but it works and basically the republicans consistently get the the

00:53:16.220 human motivation part of their systems correct you have to be a little bit tough you got to build in

00:53:22.060 some tough love into your systems or they just don't work the democrats don't like the tough love part

00:53:28.380 um as uh sean ono lennon tweeted in order to be uh fully woke you have to believe that two wrongs make a

00:53:38.860 right i just thought about that all night my god that's true in order to be woke you have to believe

00:53:47.900 the two wrongs make a right i thought that fits just about everything doesn't it and and then that

00:53:56.780 gets to my point that the democrats consistently get the motivation part all right so here's the opening

00:54:01.740 for a non-traditional uh candidate the non-traditional candidate would take what the democrats do well

00:54:09.020 which is expressing where you'd like to end up with a good world and combine it with what the republicans

00:54:15.580 do well which is create a little bit tough love in their systems but their systems that work and say

00:54:23.580 all right i like the best of both i want the practicality of the republicans but it needs to

00:54:30.220 be married with the directional goodness of the democrats that doesn't mean the democrats get everything

00:54:37.100 they want i'm not saying that i'm saying you want to get to the best world for everybody however you

00:54:43.420 want to describe it it's just that you need good systems to get there so i i think there's just this

00:54:50.380 gigantic lane for somebody to agree with the democrats on where they'd like to get a world with no

00:54:56.700 discrimination etc but describe it as something that only a good system will get you completely

00:55:04.860 wide open path there's nobody who could even handle that you could walk into the presidency with that

00:55:10.940 message all right uh if you follow the account on twitter uh by ethical skeptic and by the way you

00:55:18.860 should this is one of the stronger accounts on twitter if you want to get context and good data and stuff on

00:55:26.220 stuff so follow ethical skeptic and here's what he updates us with he says as omicron crests at 99.5

00:55:34.220 percent of cases this is in the u.s uh deaths continue to persist so deaths are still higher

00:55:41.420 than you would expect under omicron but it's because the delta deaths are still you know they're still

00:55:47.180 lagging uh but also the sheer number of omicron even though the death rate is small there's just so

00:55:54.220 many of them that that's still going to be a biggish number but we should be very close 1.00

00:56:00.300 say within nine seven days or so maybe within a week we might be within a week of the delta death

00:56:10.220 cases being cleared from the data just in time for february 1st

00:56:17.580 just in time so is february 1st going to hold i don't know i don't know um

00:56:30.700 my blinking is once again crazy yeah i always blink too much i'm not sure if that's a neurological

00:56:37.020 problem somebody's asked me about that before when i blink a lot i'm not sure if that means anything

00:56:42.620 i think it's neurological actually all right uh if i leave my home as i did last night and turn

00:56:50.940 right uh if i go to a restaurant to the right i need a vaccine passport if i leave my house and turn

00:57:01.100 left and go the same distance i don't need one it's a different county so um i'd forgotten about that and

00:57:07.900 went to a restaurant last night with christina and uh and uh it was in danville and the uh they

00:57:14.300 required a vaccine passport and i luckily i had it on my phone so we both we both had it but um it

00:57:22.380 was a friday night and it was a high-end restaurant in the middle of uh danville which is you know sort

00:57:28.300 of a happening uh local place how many what what do you think was the capacity of the restaurant that

00:57:34.540 requires vaccine passports and by the way the food was very good restaurant was excellent service was 0.84

00:57:41.180 excellent ambiance quite good um food quite good good selection so the restaurant itself was great

00:57:50.220 it was about uh i estimated 20 capacity on a on a friday night now if i had turned left

00:57:58.300 and gone to the restaurants that do not require a vaccine passport what do you think the capacity

00:58:04.140 was at the same time on a friday night i don't know but it's almost always 80 percent and by seven

00:58:13.580 o'clock it would be 100 percent if i turn left where there's no vaccine passports on a friday night you

00:58:20.380 can't get a table on a friday night when i turned right where they required them it was all tables in fact

00:58:28.300 we were the only ones sitting inside there were some outdoor tables because it was cold now some

00:58:33.820 people said to me scott it might actually be a feature that they require that because the people

00:58:39.340 who actually want to go out to eat and don't want to get infected might be a lot happier if everybody

00:58:45.020 there has a vaccine passport to which i say have you ever met a frightened person that's not how that's

00:58:51.820 not how fear works there's nobody who's going to say i'm afraid of the virus but i'll still go to a

00:58:58.140 packed restaurant as long as they showed their vaccine cards even though the virus is is breaking

00:59:03.900 through the vaccinations like a hot knife through butter there's literally nobody who would make that

00:59:10.300 choice i mean nobody's smart if you're afraid of it you're going to stay home you're not going to go

00:59:16.060 where there's a bunch of vaccinated people breathing on you because you know that that's not going to stop

00:59:20.140 you from getting it even your vaccination isn't going to stop you we know that now so i don't

00:59:26.060 think there was any feature through this i think that there are restaurants sitting on one border

00:59:31.980 who are not getting business because of the vaccine passport and and or at least at the very least

00:59:37.020 they're losing 20 of their business right because we have a pretty pretty high vaccination rate here

00:59:41.740 but i'll bet they lose 20 of their business you know maybe i saw a weird night but it looked pretty

00:59:48.300 pretty big um

00:59:53.980 and uh that is about all i had to talk about today

00:59:59.980 um

01:00:02.700 february 1st what are we going to do how are we going to handle that now most of you are

01:00:09.100 past past that you don't have these uh restrictions but for those of us who do

01:00:13.820 i would hope that uh you know we could get some support from the rest of you to get some freedom

01:00:19.500 in our state you know i do actually think that we need to wait a week in california yeah that's not

01:00:26.060 crazy to me i mean we all want it to be done right away but given that the uh what we should see is that

01:00:32.700 the deaths should fall off a table in the next few days let's wait for the deaths to fall off the table

01:00:39.340 you know to to plunge and then at least the government has their fake because

01:00:44.860 which actually would be a real because so i think the government just needs they did what

01:00:54.140 um okay

01:00:56.140 okay so something i have predicted too soon you know what i would accept i would accept on february

01:01:03.980 1st a date certain for dropping the requirements so in california i think we'll be the last to go

01:01:12.140 that's my guess i think we'll be last but even on february 1st i think the governor could say

01:01:18.220 you know we're going to shoot for february 8th or whatever the date is um i i think the governor

01:01:26.060 needs to set a date and hit it i think he does

01:01:31.980 all right um now i'm thinking that on february 1st i'm going to avoid anywhere that requires

01:01:38.700 a mask or a vaccination passport i'll see how long i can hold that now you know it's not going to hurt

01:01:45.660 the grocery store because i'm still just ordered online but i do think we could put some pain

01:01:52.940 on anybody who's requiring mandates and that it might it might be helpful

01:01:59.980 moving the goalposts um i have i'll tell you the least respect for i have for everybody who had an

01:02:08.780 opinion on the uh the pandemic is the moving the goalpost comment there are lots of cases

01:02:15.580 where people just move the goalposts it's fair to call that out but in a pandemic where all the

01:02:21.420 information is changing and we're guessing and we're learning and stuff well if you're stuck on

01:02:27.660 whether the goalposts got moved i i just don't think that's good thinking because everything got

01:02:34.300 moved the data got moved just everything got moved so of course the goalposts move because everything's

01:02:41.180 moving why why wouldn't they move uh yeah it's just called adjusting for new data

01:02:52.140 all right uh the vax damaged my blinking now i always had this blinking thing that's a lifelong thing

01:02:58.300 we should see drop numbers drop this week yeah

01:03:06.380 um

01:03:09.660 oh is today the march today's the anti-mandate march in dc

01:03:15.260 um how do you think this time will be seen by posterity really it's really going to be a mixed 1.00

01:03:30.140 bag i i think historians are going to have uh just complete opposite takes on this in every way

01:03:35.980 all right let's see i just saw some data coming through uh provisional death counts for coronary

01:03:46.140 disease on 2019 okay all right that's all i got for now um i would say that uh solving a nuclear

01:03:56.620 confrontation in ukraine is i don't want to brag but i think that's pretty good work for one live stream

01:04:06.380 anybody anybody i think that's pretty good work for one live stream and by the way you know i've said

01:04:13.500 this before that um you act like my virtual brain you know there there's like a high of mind thing that

01:04:20.540 happens here and there's no such thing as me having any kind of an idea that i'm not going to uh run

01:04:26.940 through you guys so the the the idea of solving the russia thing by just accepting their deal and

01:04:33.660 understanding we didn't really give them anything for it um that's only useful if all of you heard

01:04:40.860 it and said oh that could work which actually happened that actually happened so i actually had a

01:04:48.620 a thought but it doesn't really become you know activated until it gets past all your filters and

01:04:55.500 weirdly it did so we'll see what happens let's see what happens and that is my show for today i feel

01:05:03.820 like the best one of all time and i'll talk to you tomorrow

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 23, 2022

Episode 1632 Scott Adams： Nothing But Hoaxes and Fake News Today. There's Plenty of it

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