Real Coffee with Scott Adams - February 24, 2022


Episode 1664 Scott Adams： Putin Goes All In On Ukraine


Episode Stats

Length

54 minutes

Words per Minute

136.38203

Word Count

7,413

Sentence Count

463

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

59


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Oh, well, today is not the best day in the world, especially if you happen to be in Ukraine.
00:00:09.700 But we'll be talking about all that and having the best day that we possibly can, despite the bombs and missiles flying.
00:00:19.040 And you know what would make you feel safer?
00:00:22.060 Well, I can only think of one thing, because you want to be safe on the inside, not just the outside.
00:00:27.200 So if you want to fortify your defenses on the inside, all you need is a copper, a mug, or a glass, a tankard, a chalice, or a stein, a canteen jug, or a flask.
00:00:38.180 A huge tank would be useful right now.
00:00:41.700 But anyway, any kind of vessel, and fill it with your favorite liquid.
00:00:44.780 I like coffee.
00:00:47.240 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.
00:00:52.360 It's the dopamine hit of the day, and you might need it today.
00:00:55.640 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and despots around the world are afraid of it, and should be.
00:01:03.980 Join me now.
00:01:05.340 Go.
00:01:10.060 Hmm.
00:01:11.120 Well, I think we're going to need a stronger cup today.
00:01:16.800 We'll have to take it up a notch.
00:01:18.060 Well, we'll talk about Ukraine, of course, but a couple other things here.
00:01:25.360 Rasmussen has a poll.
00:01:26.900 It says that 47% of likely Republican voters would choose Trump as the candidate they would most likely support.
00:01:36.380 So, do you think Trump's fortunes are going up or down as Ukraine is being invaded?
00:01:46.860 Probably up, right?
00:01:48.500 Because you're always more impressed by the one who didn't make today's mistake.
00:01:53.220 Now, I don't know that Trump could have done anything about this, and neither do you.
00:01:59.160 But it's going to feel like he could, right?
00:02:02.680 And that's what's going to matter to politics.
00:02:05.640 You know, would you agree with two things?
00:02:08.680 There are two things I want you to agree with.
00:02:10.860 One is we couldn't possibly know what would happen if a different president did different stuff.
00:02:16.600 It's unknowable.
00:02:18.980 Would you agree with the first part?
00:02:21.400 That you don't really know if somebody else would have done something differently.
00:02:25.020 And if they did something differently, would you get a better outcome?
00:02:28.600 You don't know.
00:02:31.360 But if you could agree with the fact that it's a total unknown,
00:02:35.140 would you also agree with the fact that it sure feels like Trump would have done a better job?
00:02:41.540 Doesn't it?
00:02:42.560 Now, of course, that's a bias that people would have if they were Republican or leaned right or whatever,
00:02:49.420 or had any feelings about Trump that were positive whatsoever.
00:02:52.320 But we'll never know the reality of it, but it's going to feel like that.
00:03:01.500 Well, the walls are closing in on Trump legally.
00:03:04.720 Oh, wait.
00:03:05.380 No, it turns out that a spokesperson for the Manhattan prosecutors,
00:03:12.040 they were investigating Trump and his company in a criminal probe.
00:03:15.900 They've resigned.
00:03:16.560 So the top prosecutors, they were trying to prosecute Trump in this Manhattan situation.
00:03:24.500 It's not his only legal situation.
00:03:26.980 I think it's one of several.
00:03:29.780 But the prosecutors just quit, and the rumor is that they thought there was no case there.
00:03:34.940 So, the walls are closing in.
00:03:40.920 How many more are phony lawsuits who are going to see?
00:03:44.560 Or phony, I don't know, prosecutions?
00:03:48.200 All right, let's talk about Ukraine, because it's the only thing you care about today.
00:03:53.040 Number one, is there anything you would like to hear more than me saying my prediction was wrong?
00:04:00.260 Is there anybody who would like to enjoy some schadenfreude?
00:04:06.340 For those of you who correctly predicted that Putin would invade Ukraine,
00:04:12.620 would you enjoy a victory lap at my expense?
00:04:17.160 I think you've earned it.
00:04:19.360 Can we agree on that?
00:04:21.540 Can we agree you've earned it?
00:04:22.980 So, with my permission, enthusiastically, I might say,
00:04:29.320 could you please take a victory dance at my expense in the comments?
00:04:35.100 Don't be kind.
00:04:36.780 Go hard.
00:04:38.160 For the next, for the next, well, actually, I'll tell you what.
00:04:41.680 For the remainder of this, for the remainder of this live stream,
00:04:46.960 I won't block or mute anybody.
00:04:50.580 Is that fair?
00:04:51.260 So, that way you'll feel, you know, you can be as brutal as you want.
00:04:56.500 You know, part of the reason this sort of public thinking, if I can call it that,
00:05:03.480 where people like me say things in public and then you react to them and we see who's smarter,
00:05:10.420 it requires a feedback loop.
00:05:15.540 So, when I'm wrong, you need to climb all over me and tell me how dumb and wrong I am,
00:05:19.980 because that's sort of a necessary part of the system.
00:05:26.100 So, all right.
00:05:28.280 So, in the comments, if you like, you may continue verbally abusing me with my enthusiastic support.
00:05:37.900 Because if you were wrong, I'd probably mention it.
00:05:44.660 Don't you think?
00:05:46.520 If I were right and you were wrong, I'd probably mention it.
00:05:49.580 So, you could do the same.
00:05:51.540 All right.
00:05:51.840 Here's where I think I was wrong.
00:05:57.400 If I were to analyze, well, a few things.
00:06:02.180 Number one, I may be addicted to contrarian predictions.
00:06:07.640 Do you worry about that?
00:06:09.000 Because you should be.
00:06:10.560 You should be.
00:06:11.120 This would be the one that even flags me.
00:06:14.400 I go, huh.
00:06:15.780 I wonder if I got a little too addicted to contrarian predictions.
00:06:20.360 Because if you get one right, you get a lot of attention, right?
00:06:23.680 And I'm thinking to myself, this feels like that, doesn't it?
00:06:27.380 How many would say I should worry about that?
00:06:30.820 I should.
00:06:32.140 I should.
00:06:32.560 Now, I don't believe that anybody is capable of being unbiased in general about this or any other topic.
00:06:40.820 We're a biased species.
00:06:42.740 I feel like the best you can do is to be conscious of where your biases probably are.
00:06:50.620 I don't know if you can go beyond that, like as a human capability.
00:06:54.900 I think the best you can do is to say, you know, I could be biased, but this is what it feels like.
00:07:00.180 That's as honest as you could be.
00:07:02.560 Right.
00:07:03.640 Yeah.
00:07:04.140 It's the rogue doctor problem, right?
00:07:06.660 It's exactly the rogue doctor problem.
00:07:09.160 That people do like to be contrarians.
00:07:11.920 It's addicting.
00:07:13.980 I'll confess that.
00:07:15.200 It's totally addicting.
00:07:16.660 Now, on top of that, here's at least...
00:07:20.280 So that might be my subconscious reason for being wrong.
00:07:23.860 But on a conscious level, here's the assumption I made that was completely inaccurate.
00:07:32.560 The assumption is that Putin wouldn't have enough of, let's say, an emotional, psychological need to do this, and that it was economics.
00:07:43.540 And that he would do it for, you know, cold, calculated, you know, just sort of practical reasons.
00:07:50.380 And I thought to myself, you know, this doesn't look practical.
00:07:54.060 And a realist and a practical guy like Putin would take as many risks as he was confident he could get away with, but he wouldn't take more than that.
00:08:03.640 Because he would act rationally.
00:08:07.540 Now, there are two possibilities for why he's doing something that, in my naive and, you know, misinformed way, looks very impractical.
00:08:19.940 To me, what he's doing doesn't look rational.
00:08:23.380 But is it?
00:08:25.240 But is it?
00:08:26.140 And are any of us really rational?
00:08:28.760 So here's the...
00:08:30.920 I'm going to try to frame this in a way that you can see Putin's point of view without supporting his point of view.
00:08:38.220 Can I do that?
00:08:39.240 Can I...
00:08:39.880 Do you think I can slice this fine enough?
00:08:42.340 To tell you what is the best version of his point of view that explains events.
00:08:48.020 But I'm not supporting it.
00:08:49.500 I'm just explaining it.
00:08:50.560 And it would go like this.
00:08:54.980 Imagine if Ukraine had always been ambiguously Russia.
00:09:03.320 And would you say that that's true, at least from the Russian perspective?
00:09:07.800 Not from the Ukrainian perspective, probably.
00:09:09.840 But from the Russian perspective, has it always been true that Ukraine has been sort of Russian?
00:09:17.820 Or sort of part of Russia?
00:09:19.080 Probably yes.
00:09:21.500 Yes.
00:09:22.300 And Putin has said so directly, right?
00:09:26.780 Now, you can't trust what Putin says directly because he's managing the narrative.
00:09:32.580 So he's not in the business of being honest when it comes to this stuff or anything else.
00:09:37.660 But it does seem that the Russian people probably think there's some deep connection there.
00:09:43.380 Now, if Ukraine and Russia were simply separate countries, could Russia tolerate that?
00:09:53.660 Let's say there's no other variable going on.
00:09:56.460 The only variable is that, well, they're a separate country.
00:09:59.360 We think we should be one, but it's a separate country.
00:10:03.000 Do you think that would be enough to attack?
00:10:08.080 Maybe, but probably not.
00:10:11.660 Like there's not enough of a psychological impetus for that, right?
00:10:17.240 But now suppose that that country that is supposed to be, or ambiguously is Russian, decides to get a NATO brand and become part of NATO.
00:10:30.040 If you're in Russia, what do you think of NATO?
00:10:33.940 It's just America, right?
00:10:36.680 Do you think the Russians think of NATO as really an alliance of equal countries or something?
00:10:42.080 I don't think so.
00:10:43.380 They probably just think it's, you know, the U.S. and Great Britain and, you know, but mostly the U.S.
00:10:49.940 I think they think that.
00:10:51.140 So wouldn't it look like the United States just planted its flag in proxy via NATO on Russian soil?
00:11:04.380 If you were Russian, the threat of NATO, of, you know, accepting Ukraine, wouldn't it feel like an invasion?
00:11:16.480 Wouldn't it feel like one?
00:11:19.060 Or like a pending invasion?
00:11:21.140 Now, I'm not saying that NATO would then use Ukraine as a launching pad to invade Russia.
00:11:26.720 That's crazy.
00:11:28.140 That's crazy.
00:11:29.200 But it would look like they had already conquered Ukraine.
00:11:33.420 It would be like saying the United States has a right to be in Ukraine, but Russia doesn't.
00:11:42.700 Try to imagine that you're Russian.
00:11:44.500 Put yourself in a Russian mindset that you think Ukraine is basically sort of a cousin, cousin-brotherish country.
00:11:55.100 It's as Russian as almost as you are.
00:11:58.000 It's as different as maybe, you know, region within Russia are different from each other.
00:12:03.460 It's not so much different that it's not just sort of Russia-ish.
00:12:08.420 And suddenly your biggest national rival plants its flag there.
00:12:14.860 Not literally, but if you see NATO as basically a front for the United States, and if NATO got its umbrella over Ukraine, you'd expect the United States to have deeper connections there, especially.
00:12:31.360 Now, when I describe it this way, and by the way, I've never seen the press in this country describe it the way I have.
00:12:41.940 And it took me, honestly, until today to sort of even be able to imagine what it might look like if you were Russian.
00:12:52.980 Now, I'm not saying they have the preferred point of view or anything, right, if you're joining late.
00:12:57.180 I'm not supporting any particular point of view.
00:12:59.460 I'm just describing them.
00:13:01.280 People have very different points of view.
00:13:03.140 Now, and don't make it an analogy yet.
00:13:06.940 You know, as soon as you make the analogies to Taiwan, you end up, you know, going down a complicated road that's not going to help.
00:13:14.020 If the only thing you knew about the story was it looked like a rival had planted its flag on your territory, what you psychologically imagined to be your territory,
00:13:25.280 I could see a war breaking out.
00:13:29.460 I could see you almost had to do it.
00:13:31.940 So, I had thought from the, even as recently as yesterday, I was thinking, now, obviously, by yesterday, it looked like the invasion was on.
00:13:44.600 But I still thought there was a possibility that it was the world's best bluff.
00:13:52.560 I also think it still might be not exactly a bluff, but what would you call it if you're trying to scare the other side into surrendering?
00:14:02.620 Is that a bluff?
00:14:05.600 Intimidate them into surrendering?
00:14:07.260 Because it looks like Putin is trying to tell them.
00:14:11.480 Oh, a gambit?
00:14:12.400 Would you call that a gambit?
00:14:15.240 Okay.
00:14:20.160 Shock and awe.
00:14:20.940 Yeah.
00:14:22.220 Yeah.
00:14:22.860 So, think of what Russia did.
00:14:25.220 So, there was this story that the Russians had a kill list of Ukrainian leaders, or critics, or whatever.
00:14:34.640 And that if they got control of Ukraine, they were just going to line them up and kill them all.
00:14:40.140 Now, don't you think that maybe Russia itself is the one who started that rumor?
00:14:43.800 To get the Ukraine leaders to get on a plane and get out of there?
00:14:49.000 Because if that happened, then the country would just fall without any bloodshed.
00:14:52.920 The best outcome for Putin would be that he scares the Ukrainian leadership into leaving.
00:14:59.760 And he's got to be close to that.
00:15:02.180 If you were Zelensky, would you still be there?
00:15:05.260 I don't know that I would.
00:15:08.580 I mean, literally, they're saying they're going to execute him.
00:15:12.280 How would you like to wake up and be Zelensky and know that you might be one week away from being executed?
00:15:22.120 Not fun.
00:15:23.440 Not a good day, right?
00:15:26.960 Yeah, we had a literal deck of cards for Iraq.
00:15:30.800 That's right.
00:15:32.100 So, it's not unrealistic to imagine that Russia did literally have a list, a kill list.
00:15:36.480 But it is also imaginable that Russia itself is the one that let that get out so that they would, you know, maybe escape the country.
00:15:46.520 I asked this question, and Google did not give me a definitive answer, but don't you think there's a correlation between the age of a leader, a despot, let's say, and their desire to go to war against a neighboring country?
00:16:06.940 Doesn't it seem to you that war is a younger leader's game, and that it's kind of unusual that somebody in their 70s would start a land war of this magnitude?
00:16:21.860 Now, it's not impossible.
00:16:23.720 You know, I guess Brezhnev went into Afghanistan when he was 70.
00:16:27.540 Is Putin, I thought Putin is actually in his 70s now.
00:16:36.080 Can somebody give me a Putin age update?
00:16:40.860 I swear I just read he was in his early 70s.
00:16:43.940 That's not true?
00:16:46.140 69?
00:16:47.700 Yeah, okay.
00:16:49.080 And I wonder if we actually know his age.
00:16:51.180 Do you think we actually know his age?
00:16:53.860 Yeah, we might.
00:16:55.180 Somebody says 73.
00:16:56.320 Yeah, I'm seeing different estimates here.
00:16:59.660 I wonder if we actually don't know his actual age.
00:17:04.840 Because it's hard to find out about stuff like that, isn't it?
00:17:08.220 Well, but whether he's 69 or 73, I think the question holds.
00:17:15.720 Which is, what would make somebody that age do something this risky?
00:17:21.440 Because it generally is a younger person's game.
00:17:24.020 Now, one of the things that one group of researchers tried to do,
00:17:27.960 I was just looking at this online,
00:17:29.880 is they tried to figure out if, in fact, there was a link,
00:17:35.260 and they did think that their analysis found a link,
00:17:39.760 that the older the leader, the less likely they would want to go to war.
00:17:43.040 Now, other studies found the opposite,
00:17:46.920 or that, you know, they didn't find that correlation.
00:17:50.280 But one study said, oh, but we know they got causation wrong,
00:17:55.860 so we did it in a more clever way by looking at,
00:17:59.560 well, it doesn't matter how they did it.
00:18:00.960 But the point is that there's at least one study that says
00:18:05.220 we're the only ones who did it right,
00:18:06.760 and it does show that the older you are,
00:18:09.500 the less likely you're going to go to war,
00:18:11.480 meaning as a leader.
00:18:14.080 Now, what would cause somebody who is in that don't go to war phase
00:18:23.320 to go to war?
00:18:24.680 Now, it could be that, like I explained,
00:18:26.700 that just this, you know, putting a NATO brand
00:18:29.100 on part of something that looked like Russia,
00:18:32.140 two Russians, is just too far.
00:18:34.560 You know, maybe the national identity just couldn't handle it,
00:18:38.660 and Putin, as the maybe keeper of the national pride,
00:18:42.420 just couldn't take it.
00:18:43.860 It just was too much.
00:18:45.260 That's possible.
00:18:46.100 That could be the whole story, really.
00:18:48.580 And, of course, there's strategic benefits
00:18:50.420 that he would like to get as well.
00:18:54.120 But what if, what if,
00:18:57.540 Putin changed his meds?
00:19:02.180 In the comments,
00:19:03.280 tell me how many people who are around 70
00:19:05.920 are not on some kind of med
00:19:08.760 that could potentially change their personality?
00:19:15.700 Now, I don't think he's on an SSRI.
00:19:19.220 Do you think that there's any chance
00:19:20.840 that Putin is on steroids
00:19:26.500 or testosterone?
00:19:29.980 Do you think that Putin,
00:19:33.440 knowing his personality,
00:19:34.760 you know, his shirtless riding of dragons
00:19:37.820 and whatever else he's doing,
00:19:39.220 knowing his personality for ego,
00:19:42.680 knowing that he's reaching an age
00:19:44.460 in which his seven concubines per day
00:19:47.620 might seem like too much these days,
00:19:50.140 and he feels like he's slowing down,
00:19:52.000 don't you think that he's talked to his Russian doctors
00:19:57.220 about giving him whatever is the best boost
00:20:00.640 a leader could get?
00:20:02.980 And how about all those sleepless nights
00:20:04.700 that you have to have,
00:20:06.500 even if you're the one who's starting a war?
00:20:08.860 Don't you think if you're the one who's starting a war,
00:20:11.480 you've got some sleepless nights?
00:20:12.980 Because, you know,
00:20:14.740 you've got a lot of uncertainty there yourself.
00:20:17.380 Don't you think that maybe
00:20:18.500 Putin asked his doctor about some stimulants?
00:20:24.000 Maybe.
00:20:25.300 They could be perfectly prescription legal
00:20:28.260 and approved stimulants.
00:20:30.280 But most of you who are watching this
00:20:34.060 know that a couple years ago
00:20:35.860 I documented live
00:20:39.240 by living through it,
00:20:41.100 you know,
00:20:41.880 I've been doing live streams every day,
00:20:44.000 how taking prednisone
00:20:45.720 changed my personality.
00:20:48.840 And in real time,
00:20:50.020 I could feel it happening,
00:20:51.700 people could observe it,
00:20:53.560 it was real.
00:20:54.940 I had a different personality
00:20:56.460 when I was on prednisone.
00:20:59.480 And that's just one example.
00:21:02.320 You know,
00:21:02.740 I have a different personality
00:21:03.860 if I'm, you know,
00:21:05.460 doing anything.
00:21:07.000 That has some prescription strength,
00:21:09.820 if you know what I mean.
00:21:11.440 So,
00:21:12.440 do you think that part of this,
00:21:14.300 part of what we're seeing
00:21:15.660 could be
00:21:17.360 a side effect of medication?
00:21:20.400 Because, to me,
00:21:21.300 Putin doesn't look like the same guy.
00:21:23.080 I heard Dana Perino
00:21:24.700 say this on The Five,
00:21:26.680 and some people agree.
00:21:27.720 But I don't know if that's,
00:21:29.480 you know,
00:21:29.660 that could also be bias.
00:21:31.240 If he's acting differently,
00:21:33.000 maybe he just looks differently
00:21:34.380 because you imagine
00:21:35.260 that he looks differently.
00:21:36.140 So, it could totally be imagination.
00:21:39.080 But I feel as if
00:21:40.620 he just looks a little different.
00:21:42.300 He looks darker.
00:21:44.620 Didn't Putin used to be
00:21:45.920 always laughing?
00:21:47.760 Now, I know he's going to war,
00:21:49.160 so he can't be
00:21:49.820 in his laughy face now.
00:21:51.740 But something looks like
00:21:53.200 it changed.
00:21:55.080 Don't know what.
00:21:56.300 But I'm going to guess medication.
00:21:59.280 Medication and or testosterone
00:22:00.980 and or all of it.
00:22:03.140 But he looks like
00:22:04.140 maybe a person who is
00:22:05.660 a chemical experiment
00:22:08.260 at this point,
00:22:09.060 which is pretty dangerous.
00:22:13.980 All right.
00:22:15.060 What else?
00:22:15.880 Here's some more questions.
00:22:17.180 So, here's Putin's excuses
00:22:18.980 that Ukraine has
00:22:20.940 been layering abuse
00:22:23.920 and genocide
00:22:24.500 on, I guess,
00:22:27.320 Russian and ethnic people
00:22:29.100 in Ukraine.
00:22:30.560 And do you think
00:22:32.040 that's true?
00:22:33.480 Do you think
00:22:34.200 that Ukraine,
00:22:35.320 the government of Ukraine
00:22:36.420 and Ukraine forces
00:22:37.680 have been brutalizing
00:22:39.760 the breakaway
00:22:42.300 separatist groups?
00:22:45.260 I'm not saying
00:22:45.920 that they should or shouldn't
00:22:47.220 because it's their country.
00:22:48.920 I suppose they get to
00:22:49.900 fight their civil wars
00:22:51.480 any way they want.
00:22:53.020 But do you think
00:22:55.100 there's anything to it?
00:22:56.000 Is it a complete lie
00:22:58.200 or is there some
00:23:00.820 bad stuff going on there?
00:23:06.560 Something tells me
00:23:07.960 that this is not
00:23:09.000 a yes or no question here.
00:23:11.000 All right.
00:23:13.620 And Putin also said,
00:23:15.220 and this is very clever,
00:23:18.120 I hate to sound like Trump,
00:23:20.180 but yes,
00:23:21.180 this is interesting.
00:23:22.700 He announced
00:23:23.740 his operation
00:23:25.580 is to, quote,
00:23:26.420 demilitarize
00:23:27.400 and denazify Ukraine
00:23:29.880 and promising
00:23:32.340 to put its leaders
00:23:33.300 on trial.
00:23:34.400 So he's going
00:23:35.100 to try to
00:23:35.700 take the narrative
00:23:37.000 that Ukraine
00:23:37.660 is a Nazi-infested
00:23:40.780 government.
00:23:43.400 Now, I've seen that
00:23:44.800 in social media
00:23:45.660 over here,
00:23:46.660 but I discount it
00:23:48.620 because
00:23:49.040 everybody gets called
00:23:50.840 the Nazis,
00:23:51.480 so I think,
00:23:52.160 ah, maybe.
00:23:53.640 But I doubt
00:23:54.920 it defines the government,
00:23:57.680 but maybe.
00:23:58.620 I don't know.
00:23:59.840 So
00:24:00.100 here's
00:24:05.160 the other possibility.
00:24:08.040 If Putin
00:24:09.520 is a narcissist,
00:24:12.020 one of the things
00:24:13.820 narcissists always do
00:24:14.980 is projection.
00:24:15.660 So, because Putin
00:24:18.660 is acting like
00:24:19.780 Hitler,
00:24:21.940 the strongest thing
00:24:23.060 he can do
00:24:23.520 is to say,
00:24:24.100 I'm going over there
00:24:24.840 to fight Hitler.
00:24:26.140 It's projection.
00:24:27.420 Oh, no,
00:24:27.820 the other side
00:24:28.440 is Hitler.
00:24:29.900 I'm the anti-Hitler.
00:24:32.400 Don't you get it?
00:24:33.580 The other side
00:24:34.320 is Hitler.
00:24:36.120 So,
00:24:37.260 if all we're seeing
00:24:38.920 is some Putin
00:24:39.840 personality
00:24:40.600 problem,
00:24:42.720 and he's just
00:24:43.320 a narcissist,
00:24:43.900 you would see
00:24:45.520 exactly this.
00:24:47.060 Not just blaming
00:24:47.960 them of his own
00:24:49.360 unique set of crimes,
00:24:51.200 because he could
00:24:52.400 make up something,
00:24:53.180 right?
00:24:53.740 What's different
00:24:54.440 about the narcissist
00:24:55.220 is that they blame
00:24:56.660 you for their
00:24:57.240 exact crime.
00:24:59.760 Their exact crime.
00:25:01.260 That's the weird
00:25:01.860 part.
00:25:02.720 The exactness
00:25:03.920 of it.
00:25:05.400 Because
00:25:05.660 wouldn't it be
00:25:06.800 easier
00:25:07.220 if somebody
00:25:08.540 accused him
00:25:09.180 of being
00:25:09.760 Hitler?
00:25:11.000 wouldn't it be
00:25:12.420 easier for him
00:25:13.060 to say,
00:25:13.400 no, no,
00:25:13.740 I have my
00:25:14.260 reasons,
00:25:14.840 I'm liberating
00:25:15.440 you,
00:25:15.840 I'm a good
00:25:16.220 guy?
00:25:16.920 He doesn't
00:25:17.660 have to
00:25:18.100 accuse the
00:25:18.560 other side
00:25:18.940 of being
00:25:19.180 Hitler,
00:25:19.680 but when you
00:25:20.160 see that,
00:25:20.680 that's a
00:25:20.960 flag.
00:25:21.540 Wait a minute,
00:25:22.900 who does
00:25:23.380 that?
00:25:24.840 Narcissists.
00:25:25.340 It's a
00:25:25.620 personality trait.
00:25:26.760 It's really
00:25:27.400 baked in.
00:25:28.380 It's like a
00:25:28.880 really,
00:25:29.380 really,
00:25:29.840 you almost
00:25:30.580 can't change
00:25:31.240 it.
00:25:31.460 It's such
00:25:31.780 a baked
00:25:32.140 in personality
00:25:32.860 trait.
00:25:34.000 The other
00:25:34.580 thing is
00:25:34.920 gaslighting.
00:25:36.140 Have we
00:25:36.460 seen any
00:25:36.860 of that?
00:25:37.700 Well,
00:25:37.880 that's all
00:25:38.220 it was.
00:25:39.240 The entire
00:25:39.840 Russian
00:25:41.400 approach to
00:25:42.240 the pre-war
00:25:43.080 was nothing
00:25:44.060 but gaslighting.
00:25:45.060 No,
00:25:45.260 that's not
00:25:45.580 happening.
00:25:47.020 Invasion?
00:25:48.160 I don't even
00:25:48.680 know what
00:25:48.920 you're talking
00:25:49.320 about.
00:25:50.180 Maybe you
00:25:50.680 should see
00:25:51.060 somebody about
00:25:51.620 your mental
00:25:52.040 problems if
00:25:53.540 you really
00:25:53.900 think we're
00:25:54.340 going to
00:25:54.740 invade.
00:25:57.340 So,
00:25:58.020 in a way,
00:26:00.020 in the sense
00:26:00.820 that Russia
00:26:01.340 is really
00:26:02.020 just a
00:26:02.520 reflection of
00:26:03.460 Putin,
00:26:04.800 that what
00:26:05.280 the country
00:26:05.740 does is
00:26:06.240 basically what
00:26:07.060 his personality
00:26:07.900 is causing
00:26:08.600 it to do.
00:26:09.660 You're
00:26:10.100 seeing the
00:26:10.560 country act
00:26:11.220 like a
00:26:11.540 narcissist.
00:26:13.340 Now,
00:26:13.920 what about
00:26:14.260 this over
00:26:14.920 confidence?
00:26:16.580 Russia seems
00:26:17.240 pretty confident
00:26:17.920 that they can
00:26:18.540 get this done
00:26:19.220 without
00:26:19.700 suffering a
00:26:22.240 cost that
00:26:22.840 wouldn't make
00:26:23.420 it worth it.
00:26:24.840 Well,
00:26:25.140 narcissists are
00:26:26.360 overconfident.
00:26:28.800 So,
00:26:29.360 he seems to
00:26:31.260 be having a
00:26:32.600 narcissistic,
00:26:34.080 sort of
00:26:35.220 accelerated,
00:26:36.020 experience,
00:26:37.860 which I
00:26:38.280 would bet
00:26:38.760 is based
00:26:39.440 on testosterone
00:26:41.420 plus a
00:26:44.580 stimulant of
00:26:45.220 some kind,
00:26:46.940 a meth-like
00:26:48.000 stimulant,
00:26:49.880 and that
00:26:50.240 those two
00:26:50.700 things,
00:26:51.440 when you put
00:26:51.900 them together
00:26:52.380 with his
00:26:52.720 natural
00:26:53.060 personality,
00:26:54.360 makes him
00:26:54.840 think that
00:26:55.380 a land war
00:26:56.360 with his
00:26:56.920 neighbor is
00:26:57.540 a good idea
00:26:58.740 if he's been
00:26:59.340 insulted,
00:27:00.760 especially,
00:27:02.620 especially if
00:27:03.860 he's been
00:27:04.240 insulted.
00:27:04.680 and NATO
00:27:06.240 and Ukraine
00:27:06.820 is probably
00:27:07.360 an insult.
00:27:09.860 So,
00:27:11.120 wouldn't Putin
00:27:12.020 look weak
00:27:12.640 if Ukraine
00:27:13.940 went NATO?
00:27:15.880 He would
00:27:16.480 look weak,
00:27:17.020 wouldn't he?
00:27:18.120 So,
00:27:18.720 it was sort
00:27:19.420 of a personal
00:27:20.040 insult that
00:27:21.540 NATO was
00:27:22.660 even considering
00:27:23.500 branding itself
00:27:24.540 with Ukraine.
00:27:25.440 so,
00:27:30.560 let's say,
00:27:30.940 UK Prime
00:27:31.820 Minister,
00:27:33.320 so Boris
00:27:33.800 Johnson says
00:27:34.600 there are
00:27:34.860 going to be
00:27:35.120 these massive
00:27:36.020 economic
00:27:36.880 sanctions that
00:27:37.660 will hobble
00:27:38.280 the economy.
00:27:39.680 Does anybody
00:27:40.280 believe the
00:27:40.940 sanctions will
00:27:41.640 work?
00:27:44.660 I feel like
00:27:45.760 the sanctions
00:27:46.380 are what you
00:27:47.060 do when
00:27:47.940 you've already
00:27:50.120 decided to
00:27:50.960 lose,
00:27:51.400 at least in
00:27:53.540 this context.
00:27:55.780 You know,
00:27:55.940 maybe there's
00:27:56.320 some context
00:27:56.940 where it
00:27:57.240 makes sense.
00:27:58.060 But,
00:27:59.180 doesn't it
00:28:00.060 look like
00:28:00.560 we've decided
00:28:01.460 to lose,
00:28:02.520 and we're
00:28:02.920 just going
00:28:03.260 to take
00:28:03.560 our gains?
00:28:04.680 Remember I
00:28:05.200 told you that
00:28:05.740 a lot of
00:28:06.260 Russian public
00:28:07.320 thinks that
00:28:08.180 the United
00:28:08.580 States was
00:28:09.760 trying to
00:28:10.380 trick Russia
00:28:11.920 into attacking,
00:28:13.220 because there'd
00:28:13.740 be some benefit
00:28:14.440 to the United
00:28:14.920 States?
00:28:15.320 I wonder
00:28:17.560 if we
00:28:18.740 haven't thought
00:28:19.260 of it that
00:28:19.680 way.
00:28:20.860 Because there
00:28:21.520 is talk about
00:28:22.460 Russia being
00:28:23.960 bogged down
00:28:24.680 in Ukraine,
00:28:25.620 and obviously
00:28:26.820 American energy
00:28:28.960 companies should
00:28:29.780 be able to
00:28:30.260 sell more
00:28:30.680 stuff, you
00:28:31.500 know, the
00:28:31.720 natural gas
00:28:32.420 stuff, especially.
00:28:33.860 So I would
00:28:34.360 think it would
00:28:34.780 be good for
00:28:35.440 American markets
00:28:36.340 in the long
00:28:36.820 run, stock
00:28:37.660 markets taking
00:28:38.460 a dump
00:28:38.820 today, and
00:28:41.200 I would think
00:28:41.640 it would be
00:28:42.020 bad for the
00:28:42.640 Russian economy
00:28:43.440 in the long
00:28:43.960 run, and
00:28:45.300 that that's
00:28:45.820 good for the
00:28:46.280 United States
00:28:46.820 in the long
00:28:47.300 run.
00:28:47.920 If we don't
00:28:48.500 spend too
00:28:49.840 much money,
00:28:50.520 and I know
00:28:50.860 this is the
00:28:52.120 coldest
00:28:52.740 calculation, but
00:28:54.440 unfortunately, if
00:28:55.320 we're just
00:28:55.760 looking at the
00:28:56.300 economics and
00:28:57.000 not the human
00:28:57.560 cost, I'm not
00:28:59.020 devaluing the
00:28:59.720 human cost.
00:29:00.520 I'm just, for
00:29:01.480 analysis sake, let's
00:29:03.040 look at them
00:29:03.420 separately.
00:29:05.280 And, I
00:29:07.280 don't know, to
00:29:07.600 me it looks
00:29:08.340 like Russia's
00:29:09.580 going to pay
00:29:10.360 for this, and
00:29:11.440 it's not going
00:29:12.120 to be economically
00:29:12.780 viable.
00:29:13.280 So, I
00:29:15.420 think the
00:29:15.720 United States
00:29:16.220 might come
00:29:16.620 out ahead.
00:29:18.320 I think the
00:29:19.060 United States
00:29:19.560 might come
00:29:19.960 out ahead, and
00:29:20.480 I think we
00:29:20.900 knew it.
00:29:22.640 What do you
00:29:23.240 think?
00:29:24.400 I also wonder,
00:29:25.500 how does
00:29:25.840 Russia ever do
00:29:26.800 a deal with
00:29:27.580 anybody when,
00:29:29.520 you know, it's
00:29:29.880 not as if we
00:29:30.540 didn't know that
00:29:31.240 they wouldn't
00:29:31.640 keep their
00:29:32.060 international deals,
00:29:33.440 because we have
00:29:33.880 some history.
00:29:34.920 It's not as if
00:29:35.860 we didn't know
00:29:36.700 Russia lies.
00:29:38.600 And you could
00:29:39.300 argue that all
00:29:40.020 the countries lie,
00:29:41.480 you know, the
00:29:41.780 United States
00:29:42.400 too.
00:29:44.160 But, this
00:29:46.100 specific lie is
00:29:48.420 so in your
00:29:49.140 face, it's
00:29:50.840 so in your
00:29:51.380 face, that I
00:29:54.200 don't know how
00:29:54.660 you can have
00:29:55.080 normal relationships
00:29:56.140 with somebody
00:29:56.940 like this after
00:29:57.600 that.
00:29:58.420 Like, how do
00:29:58.800 you talk to a
00:30:00.180 Russian leader
00:30:00.740 like Lavrov?
00:30:02.920 How can anybody
00:30:03.740 have a conversation
00:30:04.520 with Lavrov and
00:30:05.380 he says, oh, let
00:30:06.400 me promise you
00:30:07.120 that the Russians
00:30:07.760 will not do X?
00:30:09.840 Wouldn't you
00:30:10.200 just laugh?
00:30:10.820 I mean, Lavrov,
00:30:14.460 I would laugh
00:30:15.460 him off.
00:30:16.280 I would laugh
00:30:16.820 off Lavrov.
00:30:19.100 If I were a
00:30:19.960 rapper, I could
00:30:20.820 make something out
00:30:21.480 of that, let me
00:30:22.140 tell you.
00:30:23.660 I'm going to see
00:30:24.180 Lavrov, not
00:30:26.300 going to laugh
00:30:26.860 it off.
00:30:28.280 Kanye, I need
00:30:29.080 some help.
00:30:30.260 I'll even call
00:30:30.900 you yay if you'll
00:30:32.440 help my rhyme.
00:30:33.360 All right.
00:30:37.220 So, I'm
00:30:40.100 sure the
00:30:40.860 countries will
00:30:41.560 just go back
00:30:42.120 to normal
00:30:42.760 diplomatic relations.
00:30:44.180 It's just
00:30:44.640 mind-boggling
00:30:45.540 that that's a
00:30:46.160 thing.
00:30:46.660 I guess people
00:30:47.260 will just act
00:30:47.760 practically.
00:30:48.940 Now, I'm
00:30:49.240 seeing that
00:30:49.660 Mitt Romney
00:30:50.280 is being
00:30:50.700 revived in
00:30:52.780 the, at
00:30:55.140 least in the
00:30:55.900 left's telling
00:30:56.860 of things.
00:30:57.500 I told you
00:30:57.820 Chris,
00:30:58.200 Eliza, did a
00:30:59.960 piece on
00:31:01.040 CNN in which
00:31:02.400 he was saying,
00:31:02.900 well, Romney
00:31:03.380 was right when
00:31:04.100 he said, when
00:31:04.940 he was running
00:31:05.360 against Obama,
00:31:06.180 he said that
00:31:06.660 Russia would be
00:31:07.240 the biggest
00:31:07.740 foe.
00:31:09.660 Are you buying
00:31:10.600 that?
00:31:11.720 I don't see
00:31:12.500 that at all.
00:31:14.140 I don't see
00:31:14.880 that.
00:31:15.700 Romney still
00:31:16.380 looks wrong
00:31:16.880 to me.
00:31:18.800 All I see
00:31:19.740 is Russia
00:31:20.240 taking care of
00:31:21.060 a specific
00:31:21.700 piece of
00:31:22.280 business that
00:31:23.240 seems very
00:31:23.860 Russian.
00:31:25.640 I'm not
00:31:26.160 giving them
00:31:27.840 cover.
00:31:28.960 I'm just
00:31:29.360 saying that
00:31:29.800 this is such
00:31:30.340 a specific
00:31:31.300 kind of
00:31:32.740 threat.
00:31:34.680 It's a
00:31:35.360 sort of
00:31:35.700 a Russia
00:31:36.140 on Russian
00:31:36.700 crime.
00:31:38.160 It's not
00:31:38.640 exactly what
00:31:39.560 I would
00:31:39.840 call our
00:31:40.500 biggest threat.
00:31:42.860 I mean,
00:31:43.320 I don't
00:31:44.940 think anybody
00:31:45.460 really expects
00:31:46.360 that the
00:31:47.440 United States
00:31:48.100 and Russia
00:31:49.200 will get
00:31:50.080 into a
00:31:50.460 direct war
00:31:51.080 about this.
00:31:52.500 And all
00:31:52.980 it does
00:31:53.320 is look
00:31:53.700 like Russia
00:31:54.240 just degraded
00:31:55.240 itself
00:31:55.720 economically
00:31:57.240 and the
00:31:57.960 United States
00:31:58.560 did not.
00:31:59.140 I mean,
00:32:00.140 this looks
00:32:00.480 like the
00:32:00.800 opposite
00:32:01.140 of our
00:32:01.540 biggest
00:32:01.800 risk.
00:32:02.580 It's just
00:32:02.960 a pain
00:32:03.260 in the
00:32:03.500 ass at
00:32:03.820 the moment.
00:32:04.640 There's
00:32:04.920 no way
00:32:05.280 this is
00:32:05.620 a bigger
00:32:05.880 risk than
00:32:06.340 China.
00:32:07.440 Are you
00:32:07.780 kidding me?
00:32:09.140 Let me
00:32:09.840 ask the
00:32:10.140 question.
00:32:11.540 In the
00:32:12.440 comments,
00:32:13.900 I probably
00:32:14.760 primed you
00:32:15.260 too much,
00:32:15.900 but tell
00:32:17.160 me,
00:32:17.520 which is
00:32:18.340 the bigger
00:32:18.680 problem,
00:32:19.460 China or
00:32:20.040 Russia,
00:32:20.580 for the
00:32:20.900 United States?
00:32:22.820 China or
00:32:23.380 Russia?
00:32:24.060 In the
00:32:24.640 comments.
00:32:25.980 All right,
00:32:26.260 I'm seeing
00:32:26.660 a wall
00:32:27.180 of
00:32:27.440 China.
00:32:30.460 Nothing
00:32:30.980 but China
00:32:31.580 on the
00:32:31.980 locals
00:32:32.280 platform.
00:32:35.360 And then,
00:32:36.460 yeah,
00:32:36.900 China,
00:32:37.340 China,
00:32:37.620 China.
00:32:38.300 So,
00:32:39.600 the media
00:32:40.500 is trying
00:32:40.900 to convince
00:32:41.400 us that
00:32:41.860 Mitt Romney
00:32:42.340 got this
00:32:42.840 right,
00:32:43.800 and I
00:32:44.140 think 100%
00:32:45.060 of you
00:32:45.500 watching this
00:32:46.940 live stream,
00:32:47.620 you're not
00:32:48.040 buying any
00:32:48.520 of that.
00:32:49.240 Now,
00:32:49.560 partly,
00:32:50.480 many of
00:32:50.980 you may
00:32:51.380 be not
00:32:52.560 the biggest
00:32:52.980 Mitt Romney
00:32:53.580 fans.
00:32:54.080 I think
00:32:54.300 that's
00:32:54.760 probably
00:32:55.080 part of
00:32:55.660 it.
00:32:56.260 All right,
00:32:57.600 I asked
00:32:58.680 in a
00:32:59.340 Twitter
00:32:59.580 poll,
00:33:00.040 which has
00:33:00.360 no
00:33:00.600 scientific
00:33:01.080 basis
00:33:01.620 whatsoever,
00:33:02.980 will
00:33:03.500 Russia
00:33:03.880 come out
00:33:04.260 ahead
00:33:04.580 economically
00:33:05.260 in the
00:33:05.760 long run?
00:33:07.520 And the
00:33:08.060 last I
00:33:08.500 checked,
00:33:08.940 maybe
00:33:09.080 somebody
00:33:09.420 could
00:33:09.700 check it
00:33:10.580 for me
00:33:11.000 quickly,
00:33:11.660 because I'm
00:33:12.120 doing this,
00:33:13.920 but it
00:33:15.080 was roughly
00:33:15.620 one-third
00:33:16.980 said yes,
00:33:17.760 Russia will
00:33:18.440 come out
00:33:18.720 ahead,
00:33:19.560 about a
00:33:19.960 third said
00:33:20.420 no,
00:33:20.940 and about
00:33:21.400 a third
00:33:21.740 said it
00:33:22.160 could go
00:33:22.460 either way.
00:33:23.360 Now,
00:33:23.680 the numbers
00:33:24.300 were bouncing
00:33:24.900 all around,
00:33:25.520 so they
00:33:26.400 could have
00:33:26.660 changed
00:33:26.940 quite a
00:33:27.300 bit before
00:33:27.700 I got
00:33:27.980 on.
00:33:28.740 But
00:33:28.940 generally
00:33:29.480 speaking,
00:33:31.320 the people
00:33:32.120 answering this
00:33:32.800 couldn't tell
00:33:33.700 if Russia
00:33:34.860 would come
00:33:35.380 out ahead,
00:33:36.320 behind,
00:33:36.860 or about
00:33:37.180 the same.
00:33:37.600 And does
00:33:43.180 that sound
00:33:43.880 reasonable in
00:33:47.340 the sense
00:33:47.720 that the
00:33:48.320 wisdom of
00:33:48.860 the crowd
00:33:49.400 can't tell?
00:33:51.180 Now,
00:33:51.480 do you
00:33:51.700 think that
00:33:53.320 Putin has
00:33:56.140 a stronger
00:33:57.240 confidence than
00:33:58.440 the public
00:33:59.040 that I
00:34:00.020 polled?
00:34:00.900 Because he
00:34:01.300 would have
00:34:01.640 access to
00:34:02.640 the best
00:34:03.040 information,
00:34:03.860 and he
00:34:04.620 would know
00:34:05.140 what Russia
00:34:05.700 could do to
00:34:06.340 get around
00:34:06.740 sanctions,
00:34:07.660 so he
00:34:07.920 would have
00:34:08.160 the most
00:34:08.560 information
00:34:09.060 about this.
00:34:10.320 Do you
00:34:10.660 think that
00:34:10.980 Russia and
00:34:12.400 Putin can
00:34:14.800 look at this
00:34:15.380 situation that
00:34:16.120 they're creating
00:34:16.780 and say,
00:34:17.720 oh, this
00:34:18.000 will pay for
00:34:18.440 itself?
00:34:19.720 Do you
00:34:20.260 think he's
00:34:20.640 confident of
00:34:21.480 that?
00:34:22.480 Because this
00:34:22.860 gets back to
00:34:23.600 did he change
00:34:24.780 his meds?
00:34:25.780 Because he
00:34:26.200 could be
00:34:26.520 confident of
00:34:27.120 something you
00:34:27.580 shouldn't be
00:34:28.020 confident of.
00:34:28.780 That's where
00:34:29.600 you get in
00:34:30.060 trouble.
00:34:33.580 Putin would
00:34:34.220 be confident
00:34:34.820 in just on
00:34:35.420 principle,
00:34:36.000 right?
00:34:36.360 That's the
00:34:36.740 problem,
00:34:37.100 isn't it?
00:34:41.640 We're already
00:34:42.320 paying for it
00:34:42.920 with higher
00:34:43.380 oil prices,
00:34:44.340 yeah.
00:34:45.440 So,
00:34:46.500 Putin might
00:34:47.920 also, I
00:34:48.920 wonder if
00:34:49.300 Putin is
00:34:49.700 already making
00:34:50.360 a profit,
00:34:51.640 because he's
00:34:52.320 putting out
00:34:52.740 the expense
00:34:53.400 of the
00:34:54.080 military,
00:34:55.020 and there
00:34:55.380 may be
00:34:55.720 future expense
00:34:56.620 of deals
00:34:57.100 he can't
00:34:57.540 get done
00:34:57.920 with other
00:34:58.340 countries.
00:34:59.360 But at
00:34:59.960 the moment,
00:35:00.920 the price
00:35:01.480 of oil is
00:35:02.060 going up so
00:35:02.660 much.
00:35:04.460 Doesn't he
00:35:05.040 make a
00:35:05.340 profit?
00:35:12.740 And we
00:35:14.680 should be
00:35:15.020 seeing a
00:35:15.420 lot more
00:35:15.940 on the
00:35:16.440 economic
00:35:16.960 question,
00:35:17.860 shouldn't we?
00:35:18.680 Because I
00:35:19.400 feel like at
00:35:20.180 the very
00:35:20.460 least you
00:35:21.000 could take
00:35:21.340 each of
00:35:21.660 these
00:35:21.840 categories
00:35:22.440 and put
00:35:23.060 some kind
00:35:23.520 of estimate
00:35:24.000 on it.
00:35:25.220 So, for
00:35:25.660 example,
00:35:26.220 this category
00:35:26.980 would be
00:35:27.580 the windfall
00:35:29.540 profit that
00:35:30.540 Russia will
00:35:31.080 make just
00:35:32.360 from rising
00:35:33.320 energy prices
00:35:35.380 as a
00:35:36.940 producer of
00:35:37.460 energy.
00:35:39.040 Now,
00:35:40.200 would the
00:35:41.120 prices also
00:35:41.800 go up in
00:35:42.280 Russia?
00:35:43.340 Would the
00:35:43.740 Russian citizens
00:35:44.600 be paying
00:35:45.200 more for
00:35:45.700 energy?
00:35:47.740 Yes or
00:35:48.440 no?
00:35:49.060 Is that a
00:35:49.600 controlled
00:35:50.040 expense?
00:35:51.260 Maybe it's a
00:35:51.780 controlled
00:35:52.100 expense, I
00:35:52.760 don't know.
00:35:55.460 They're probably
00:35:56.340 protected from
00:35:57.100 that, aren't
00:35:57.520 they?
00:35:58.480 I don't
00:35:58.780 know.
00:36:01.720 Yeah, killing
00:36:02.440 the Keystone
00:36:03.040 pipeline, that's
00:36:03.880 certainly part
00:36:04.340 of it.
00:36:06.360 All right.
00:36:07.800 I think the
00:36:08.660 probable, I'm
00:36:09.900 going to go
00:36:10.380 with the
00:36:11.400 current estimate
00:36:12.240 more because I
00:36:12.980 want the
00:36:13.340 conversation to
00:36:14.240 become deeper.
00:36:16.420 I think the
00:36:16.900 winners in this
00:36:17.620 will be China.
00:36:19.520 See if you
00:36:20.560 agree with my
00:36:21.340 estimates on the
00:36:22.400 winners and the
00:36:23.020 losers of this
00:36:24.060 Ukraine action.
00:36:25.680 I think the
00:36:26.360 winner will be
00:36:26.880 China.
00:36:27.200 I think NATO
00:36:31.160 unity will be
00:36:33.520 greater.
00:36:36.020 And I think
00:36:37.080 the United
00:36:38.640 States might
00:36:39.660 end up ahead.
00:36:41.980 I think the
00:36:42.900 United States
00:36:43.380 might end up
00:36:44.200 ahead.
00:36:45.580 But that's
00:36:46.440 uncertain at
00:36:47.500 this point.
00:36:48.120 We're going to
00:36:48.580 eat some more
00:36:49.120 inflation for
00:36:49.880 sure.
00:36:51.160 But I think
00:36:52.020 it's going to
00:36:52.960 cause us to
00:36:54.280 get serious
00:36:54.840 about our
00:36:55.460 energy
00:36:56.400 situation.
00:36:57.720 Now, did
00:36:58.160 you know
00:36:58.460 this?
00:37:01.360 I saw this
00:37:02.320 in a Matt
00:37:02.740 Ridley tweet.
00:37:04.280 Did you know
00:37:04.800 that the
00:37:05.100 head of
00:37:05.460 NATO,
00:37:09.020 Anders Fog
00:37:10.640 Rasmussen,
00:37:11.800 said the
00:37:12.440 Russians, as
00:37:13.040 part of a
00:37:13.520 sophisticated
00:37:14.080 disinformation
00:37:14.860 operation,
00:37:15.800 quote,
00:37:16.540 engaged
00:37:17.140 actively with
00:37:18.140 the so-called
00:37:18.960 non-governmental
00:37:21.800 organizations and
00:37:23.200 environmental
00:37:23.700 organizations,
00:37:24.720 working against
00:37:25.880 shale gas to
00:37:27.760 maintain Europe's
00:37:28.660 dependence on
00:37:29.440 imported Russian
00:37:30.300 gas?
00:37:32.100 Wow.
00:37:33.020 So, Russia
00:37:34.280 put $95 million
00:37:35.540 into these
00:37:36.720 NGOs, these
00:37:37.820 non-government
00:37:38.520 organizations, to
00:37:40.340 persuade Russia
00:37:41.780 that shale gas,
00:37:43.700 which would
00:37:44.160 compete with the
00:37:44.940 Russian product
00:37:45.880 of gas, was
00:37:48.240 too dangerous
00:37:48.820 for a variety
00:37:49.460 of reasons,
00:37:50.060 bad for the
00:37:50.560 environment and
00:37:51.400 stuff.
00:37:53.400 Now, do you
00:37:55.780 think that shale
00:37:56.580 gas will be
00:37:58.440 revived in
00:37:59.140 Europe because
00:37:59.700 of this?
00:38:01.100 Maybe.
00:38:01.860 I don't
00:38:02.100 know.
00:38:03.020 Do you
00:38:04.280 think that
00:38:05.620 Greta Thunberg
00:38:06.560 and the
00:38:07.980 green movement
00:38:08.680 in the United
00:38:09.100 States is
00:38:09.780 completely free
00:38:10.700 from Russian
00:38:11.500 and or
00:38:12.920 Chinese influence?
00:38:15.600 What are
00:38:16.500 the odds
00:38:17.060 that Russia
00:38:18.000 actively tried
00:38:19.000 to influence
00:38:19.740 European shale
00:38:21.700 and did not
00:38:22.980 try to
00:38:23.460 actively influence
00:38:24.700 the green
00:38:25.500 movement in
00:38:26.100 the United
00:38:26.460 States?
00:38:28.460 Is there
00:38:29.380 any chance,
00:38:31.160 any chance
00:38:32.160 that Russia
00:38:32.740 isn't trying
00:38:33.440 to make
00:38:34.480 us go
00:38:34.860 green as
00:38:35.380 fast as
00:38:35.780 we can?
00:38:36.980 I'm pretty
00:38:37.880 sure Russia
00:38:39.160 is pro-solar
00:38:40.100 panels for
00:38:41.420 the United
00:38:41.960 States.
00:38:43.280 Pretty sure.
00:38:44.920 And I'm pretty
00:38:45.560 sure they're
00:38:46.080 pro-closed-down
00:38:47.660 pipelines in the
00:38:48.520 United States.
00:38:49.280 and we have to
00:38:50.860 ask ourselves
00:38:51.640 how much of
00:38:52.900 our American
00:38:53.620 economic policy
00:38:56.580 is suspiciously
00:38:58.200 close to
00:38:58.740 exactly what
00:38:59.480 Russia wants
00:39:00.160 it to be.
00:39:01.920 How powerful
00:39:03.200 is persuasion?
00:39:05.160 Well, I
00:39:05.880 estimated in an
00:39:06.820 earlier live stream
00:39:07.740 that you could
00:39:08.300 move, even if
00:39:09.940 you didn't have
00:39:10.520 complete control
00:39:11.300 of the internet
00:39:12.020 in your country,
00:39:13.640 even if the
00:39:14.260 internet allowed
00:39:15.440 people to see
00:39:16.040 different points of
00:39:16.780 view, if you
00:39:18.020 could control the
00:39:18.760 media in your
00:39:19.400 country, you
00:39:20.400 could still
00:39:20.820 convince half of
00:39:21.800 them of just
00:39:22.980 about anything.
00:39:24.520 Anything.
00:39:25.940 So, given that
00:39:27.540 persuasion is that
00:39:28.380 strong, that even
00:39:29.920 with alternate
00:39:30.580 sources of truth
00:39:31.680 and fact-checking,
00:39:32.940 you can convince
00:39:33.820 50% of the public
00:39:35.020 of, did I mention
00:39:36.640 anything?
00:39:38.140 Just anything,
00:39:39.760 apparently.
00:39:40.140 And why
00:39:43.380 wouldn't Russia
00:39:44.380 be actively
00:39:46.220 supporting
00:39:47.340 efforts to
00:39:49.060 close down
00:39:49.540 our own
00:39:49.880 pipelines and
00:39:50.620 energy business?
00:39:51.800 It'd be crazy
00:39:52.520 if they weren't,
00:39:53.180 right?
00:39:54.560 It'd be crazy.
00:39:56.240 If it worked in
00:39:57.280 Europe, why
00:39:57.800 wouldn't it work
00:39:58.320 here?
00:39:59.260 Of course it
00:39:59.780 would work.
00:40:01.080 Now, do you
00:40:01.600 remember when
00:40:02.180 President Trump,
00:40:03.840 before he was
00:40:04.460 president, said
00:40:05.080 that climate
00:40:06.980 change was a
00:40:08.080 Chinese hoax?
00:40:10.580 Do you remember
00:40:11.140 when that
00:40:11.540 sounded ridiculous?
00:40:14.660 And now we
00:40:15.180 know that at
00:40:15.940 least the
00:40:16.700 shale gas
00:40:18.980 part of
00:40:19.480 climate change
00:40:20.300 was actually
00:40:21.540 a hoax.
00:40:23.140 Literally, a
00:40:24.800 misinformation
00:40:25.220 campaign for
00:40:26.520 economic reasons,
00:40:27.700 for Russia in
00:40:28.560 this case.
00:40:29.540 Now, you
00:40:29.860 don't think
00:40:30.380 China would do
00:40:32.000 something like
00:40:32.540 that?
00:40:33.960 You think only
00:40:34.640 Russia would do
00:40:35.400 a disinformation
00:40:36.060 campaign against
00:40:37.460 the energy
00:40:38.100 source?
00:40:40.680 Wasn't it
00:40:41.320 even Thomas
00:40:43.320 Edison who
00:40:43.940 did a
00:40:44.300 disinformation
00:40:44.820 campaign against
00:40:45.860 Tesla?
00:40:46.680 Do I remember
00:40:48.760 my history
00:40:49.300 wrong?
00:40:51.340 That's a yes,
00:40:52.020 right?
00:40:52.500 Even in our
00:40:53.280 own American
00:40:53.860 history, Edison
00:40:55.440 did a total
00:40:56.180 disinformation
00:40:56.800 campaign against
00:40:57.820 Tesla, which
00:40:59.640 is why we
00:41:00.160 have the types
00:41:01.120 of networks we
00:41:01.780 have today,
00:41:03.400 in part.
00:41:03.880 Yeah, so
00:41:06.180 there's a long
00:41:08.000 history of
00:41:08.800 doing persuasion
00:41:09.940 campaigns against
00:41:11.020 energy sources
00:41:12.040 that are the
00:41:12.880 ones you're not
00:41:13.440 selling.
00:41:16.540 Fracking is
00:41:17.340 ramping up on
00:41:18.100 private lands.
00:41:19.460 Is it?
00:41:20.180 Good.
00:41:21.800 I mean, I
00:41:22.760 think it's
00:41:23.100 good.
00:41:23.660 I'm no expert
00:41:24.340 on fracking,
00:41:25.080 but from an
00:41:25.920 economic standpoint,
00:41:26.840 it's probably
00:41:27.180 good.
00:41:28.220 Environmentally,
00:41:28.820 I have no
00:41:29.460 idea.
00:41:30.440 Don't have an
00:41:30.940 opinion.
00:41:31.180 So, and
00:41:36.320 I guess Russia
00:41:37.980 today runs an
00:41:39.080 anti-fracking
00:41:40.300 program, etc.
00:41:42.580 So, I ask
00:41:44.180 you this.
00:41:45.100 Do you think
00:41:45.680 that the Biden
00:41:46.300 administration
00:41:46.980 will break the
00:41:48.920 spell, which
00:41:50.600 is, will they
00:41:51.240 realize that a
00:41:52.180 lot of what
00:41:52.580 they're doing
00:41:53.040 for Greta
00:41:54.880 Thunberg
00:41:55.460 save the world
00:41:56.280 purposes may
00:41:57.620 in fact be
00:41:58.540 largely driven
00:42:00.580 by, first
00:42:02.080 of all, the
00:42:02.440 public in
00:42:02.940 the United
00:42:03.260 States, but
00:42:04.340 that the
00:42:04.660 public in
00:42:05.080 the United
00:42:05.360 States might
00:42:05.820 be driven
00:42:06.220 by Russia
00:42:06.900 and China
00:42:08.460 and other
00:42:09.580 misinformation
00:42:10.140 campaigns?
00:42:12.400 When do we
00:42:13.140 wake up and
00:42:13.740 say, wait,
00:42:14.500 public opinion
00:42:15.280 in the United
00:42:15.800 States is
00:42:16.280 probably
00:42:16.920 artificial?
00:42:19.460 Because that
00:42:20.700 would be what
00:42:21.160 happened in
00:42:21.620 Europe.
00:42:22.120 In Europe,
00:42:22.680 their opinion
00:42:23.240 about fracking
00:42:24.000 was actually
00:42:24.640 artificial.
00:42:25.700 It wasn't
00:42:26.160 actually their
00:42:26.800 opinion.
00:42:27.240 It was an
00:42:27.580 assigned opinion
00:42:28.420 that half the
00:42:29.120 people took.
00:42:30.580 So, let's
00:42:34.040 see.
00:42:35.880 How does
00:42:36.420 Putin get
00:42:38.240 permission to
00:42:39.260 travel internationally
00:42:40.560 to, let's say,
00:42:42.000 democratic countries
00:42:42.980 after this?
00:42:45.660 Do we just
00:42:46.560 act like it
00:42:47.080 didn't happen?
00:42:48.600 What the
00:42:49.360 hell are we
00:42:49.800 going to do?
00:42:51.300 Now, I'm not
00:42:53.100 a historian, but
00:42:54.000 could Hitler
00:42:55.780 travel anywhere
00:42:56.740 he wanted?
00:42:57.220 Let's say
00:42:59.200 before, well,
00:43:01.060 yeah, after
00:43:01.540 the war
00:43:01.840 started.
00:43:03.360 After Hitler
00:43:04.360 started invading
00:43:05.800 neighbors, could
00:43:07.580 he travel
00:43:08.060 anywhere he
00:43:08.520 wanted?
00:43:12.560 Depends on
00:43:13.260 the reason.
00:43:13.900 No, I
00:43:14.280 suppose if he
00:43:14.860 were going to
00:43:15.420 negotiate a
00:43:16.960 ceasefire, yes.
00:43:18.800 But could he
00:43:19.660 travel just to
00:43:21.140 do his
00:43:22.080 propaganda and
00:43:22.980 appear on 60
00:43:23.760 Minutes and
00:43:24.280 stuff?
00:43:25.100 I don't think
00:43:25.600 so, right?
00:43:27.080 So, I
00:43:30.360 wonder about
00:43:30.960 how much this
00:43:31.660 matters.
00:43:33.020 Imagine being
00:43:33.800 as powerful as
00:43:34.620 Putin and
00:43:35.820 having the
00:43:36.540 vast wealth of
00:43:37.740 Russia at your
00:43:38.360 disposal and
00:43:39.460 the military,
00:43:40.580 and you can't
00:43:41.760 take a trip to
00:43:42.500 someplace nice.
00:43:44.140 The only place
00:43:44.760 you can go is
00:43:45.580 China, where
00:43:46.800 you're going to
00:43:47.140 be spied on
00:43:47.880 everywhere, your
00:43:49.080 own country that
00:43:49.940 you're kind of
00:43:50.360 tired of, and
00:43:53.020 you just can't
00:43:53.520 go anywhere.
00:43:54.220 Fun.
00:43:55.600 Wouldn't that
00:43:56.880 kind of suck?
00:43:59.360 Imagine if the
00:44:00.240 only sanction
00:44:01.680 that happened was
00:44:03.260 that Putin isn't
00:44:04.020 allowed to travel
00:44:04.780 into any other
00:44:05.900 country that
00:44:07.060 supports NATO
00:44:08.080 or, and just
00:44:09.860 say, you know,
00:44:10.220 you can't go to
00:44:10.840 Brazil.
00:44:11.940 I know you'd
00:44:12.480 like to, you
00:44:12.880 just can't.
00:44:14.060 You'd like to
00:44:14.600 visit France
00:44:15.360 because you
00:44:15.800 like the wine?
00:44:16.480 Sorry.
00:44:17.380 Never again.
00:44:18.640 You'll never
00:44:19.100 go to France.
00:44:20.540 United States?
00:44:21.640 Nope.
00:44:22.400 Nope.
00:44:22.880 New York City?
00:44:24.080 Nope.
00:44:24.340 I don't
00:44:26.860 know.
00:44:27.640 How do we
00:44:28.240 treat that?
00:44:28.960 And is there
00:44:29.320 any modern, can
00:44:31.420 anybody think of
00:44:32.140 a modern example?
00:44:33.580 Now, of course, we
00:44:35.260 have to explain how
00:44:36.300 China can have, you
00:44:39.040 know, the Uyghurs,
00:44:40.620 you know, let's say
00:44:42.180 cultural genocide, but
00:44:43.500 not murder genocide as
00:44:45.620 far as we know.
00:44:48.420 How does that
00:44:49.960 happen?
00:44:50.660 And President Xi
00:44:51.700 can still travel
00:44:53.300 anywhere he wants,
00:44:54.020 right?
00:44:54.960 It feels like, it
00:44:56.400 feels like that
00:44:56.940 happened somewhat
00:44:57.620 gradually, so it's
00:44:58.720 different.
00:45:00.100 You know, it's the
00:45:00.860 difference between
00:45:01.600 war starts today,
00:45:04.300 which is what
00:45:04.840 Putin did.
00:45:05.720 Like, that feels
00:45:06.320 like a slap in the
00:45:07.420 face.
00:45:08.340 Whereas the,
00:45:09.880 anything in China
00:45:10.900 feels like it's been
00:45:11.780 building up forever,
00:45:13.480 so you just got used
00:45:14.680 to it, no matter how
00:45:15.520 much you don't like
00:45:16.220 it.
00:45:16.920 You're like, well,
00:45:18.360 I don't know, I
00:45:19.020 haven't seen any
00:45:19.560 pictures.
00:45:20.820 I don't see anything
00:45:21.600 exploding.
00:45:24.200 I don't know.
00:45:25.540 It's easier just to
00:45:26.480 go on with your
00:45:27.040 day.
00:45:28.520 So, you know, an
00:45:30.480 invasion does look
00:45:31.300 different than some
00:45:32.720 low-grade evil that's
00:45:34.080 been, you know,
00:45:34.860 increasing over time.
00:45:37.540 You said the same
00:45:38.440 thing about Kim
00:45:39.180 Jong.
00:45:40.980 Which, which
00:45:41.860 thing?
00:45:43.840 I might have, I
00:45:45.060 don't know, I don't
00:45:45.420 know what you're
00:45:45.720 talking about
00:45:46.080 exactly.
00:45:46.380 All right, why
00:45:49.260 would he want to
00:45:49.840 travel?
00:45:50.780 Good question.
00:45:52.440 I think that Putin
00:45:53.900 is happiest when he
00:45:55.120 travels.
00:45:56.780 What do you
00:45:57.200 think?
00:45:58.280 Doesn't he travel a
00:45:59.360 lot?
00:46:00.680 I feel like every
00:46:01.700 time I look up,
00:46:03.120 Putin's in a
00:46:03.700 different country.
00:46:06.760 Now, yeah, I'm
00:46:09.560 seeing a comment that
00:46:11.560 I'm mind-reading
00:46:12.480 Putin, and that is
00:46:15.180 correct, but it is
00:46:16.880 also correct that you
00:46:17.760 have to try to
00:46:18.500 anticipate what
00:46:19.540 people think in order
00:46:20.960 to know what you
00:46:21.740 should do.
00:46:23.400 So, we don't have
00:46:24.900 the option of not
00:46:25.880 trying to guess what
00:46:26.820 he's thinking.
00:46:27.620 It would be mind-reading
00:46:28.620 if I told you I know
00:46:29.640 what he's thinking, but
00:46:30.880 I won't do that.
00:46:32.220 I'm going to make a
00:46:32.980 general comment that
00:46:34.740 somebody with a
00:46:35.400 billion dollars really,
00:46:36.900 really would hate not
00:46:38.660 being able to travel
00:46:39.480 anywhere they want.
00:46:41.660 Would you buy that?
00:46:43.620 That basically anybody
00:46:45.100 with that much
00:46:45.820 resources and power
00:46:47.040 would really hate it
00:46:48.940 if they just couldn't
00:46:50.140 even visit certain
00:46:51.400 countries.
00:46:52.520 But on the other
00:46:53.140 hand, maybe when he
00:46:54.220 visits other countries
00:46:55.100 he's just going from
00:46:56.160 hotel to plane
00:46:57.200 anyway, and maybe he
00:46:59.080 doesn't care at all.
00:47:00.680 Maybe the only place
00:47:01.680 he's ever free is in
00:47:04.680 Russia because, you
00:47:06.320 know, he's safer
00:47:08.400 there, I guess.
00:47:09.000 All right.
00:47:14.160 Let's see what else we
00:47:15.200 got going on.
00:47:16.120 I don't think there's
00:47:17.080 much.
00:47:19.920 Yeah, that's about it.
00:47:21.960 How many of you think
00:47:23.140 that Trump would have
00:47:24.840 done a better job?
00:47:26.800 Or let's say, how many
00:47:27.780 of you think that Trump
00:47:29.060 would have prevented the
00:47:30.560 invasion of Ukraine?
00:47:31.700 In the comments, how many
00:47:35.260 think you would?
00:47:36.940 I'm saying yeses, a lot
00:47:39.540 of yeses, some noes.
00:47:45.420 Some think it would be
00:47:46.480 limited.
00:47:47.800 Yeses, no doubt about it.
00:47:49.800 Now, how would he have
00:47:50.580 done that?
00:47:52.240 What mechanism would he
00:47:54.280 have employed to do that?
00:47:55.880 Here's what I think
00:48:01.520 Trump would have done.
00:48:04.700 First of all, he would
00:48:05.780 have just turned up the
00:48:06.860 he just would have turned
00:48:08.680 the knob on our energy
00:48:09.780 production and said,
00:48:11.260 thank you for this
00:48:12.860 windfall profit.
00:48:14.920 This is the best thing
00:48:15.960 that ever happened to
00:48:16.740 the American economy.
00:48:19.700 You know, we really wish
00:48:20.880 you wouldn't do this, but
00:48:21.700 if you're going to do it,
00:48:22.520 you're handing us you're
00:48:23.720 handing us Europe as a
00:48:24.800 customer.
00:48:25.880 If I were Trump, I would
00:48:28.840 say you're handing Europe
00:48:30.160 to us as a future
00:48:32.200 customer, more of a
00:48:33.580 customer, I guess, for our
00:48:35.320 energy business.
00:48:36.820 So I guess that's a bit
00:48:37.600 Trump would at least have
00:48:39.260 the credible threat that
00:48:41.480 he's going to take your
00:48:42.280 business.
00:48:44.420 Right?
00:48:45.160 And I don't think Biden
00:48:46.200 ever talks about it that
00:48:47.100 way because he's such a
00:48:47.940 traditional politician.
00:48:50.880 I think Trump could
00:48:52.260 threaten them economically
00:48:53.680 in a different way.
00:48:55.880 Trump could say, look,
00:48:57.420 you just made it impossible
00:48:58.820 for us to ever lose a
00:49:00.880 bidding war against you.
00:49:02.800 You know, you'd have to
00:49:03.980 really be cheap.
00:49:05.640 Your energy would have to
00:49:06.860 be awfully cheap before
00:49:09.100 you're going to win a
00:49:09.880 bidding war against us in
00:49:10.900 the future.
00:49:11.420 So we basically just took
00:49:12.860 your gas business.
00:49:14.100 It'll be a matter of time.
00:49:15.640 It's going to take a while
00:49:16.500 and we have to use tankers
00:49:18.040 and stuff, not pipelines.
00:49:19.100 But yeah, we're basically
00:49:20.880 going to take that business.
00:49:24.120 Russia has high cost of
00:49:25.720 production, somebody says?
00:49:28.440 Maybe.
00:49:30.360 How many people think that
00:49:31.940 Putin will continue his
00:49:34.600 aggression?
00:49:37.720 Is there another next place
00:49:40.980 that's obvious?
00:49:42.640 Because it doesn't feel like
00:49:44.160 Poland is at risk.
00:49:45.500 I mean, a NATO country.
00:49:47.880 I don't think any of the
00:49:48.480 NATO countries are at risk.
00:49:50.280 Now, I saw a map.
00:49:52.440 I think maybe Ian Bremmer
00:49:55.360 tweeted it.
00:49:56.140 I can't remember who did.
00:49:57.800 But I saw an animated map
00:49:59.640 of the increase in NATO
00:50:02.000 nations.
00:50:02.900 Have you ever seen this?
00:50:04.800 You see a map that shows,
00:50:06.260 over time,
00:50:07.820 Soviet influence.
00:50:09.360 So it starts with the
00:50:10.380 Soviet Union.
00:50:12.120 Well, Russian influence.
00:50:13.380 So it starts with the
00:50:14.160 Soviet Union.
00:50:15.260 And then you see over time,
00:50:16.420 you know, that all the
00:50:17.600 satellite countries are
00:50:18.760 disappearing.
00:50:19.740 And then you see NATO that
00:50:21.220 starts as a smaller entity.
00:50:23.200 And it just starts swallowing
00:50:24.660 up countries that used to
00:50:26.100 have Russian influence.
00:50:28.140 If you were a Russian and
00:50:29.460 you saw that map, it would
00:50:31.800 look like NATO is an
00:50:32.860 offensive force.
00:50:34.740 Because NATO keeps
00:50:35.860 essentially taking new
00:50:38.900 countries, in a way,
00:50:41.080 is swallowing them up.
00:50:42.620 It would look aggressive to
00:50:44.160 you if you saw it on the
00:50:45.280 map and you were Russia.
00:50:46.880 It would look like Russia
00:50:48.000 was shrinking and NATO
00:50:49.240 was increasing.
00:50:49.900 And this might be the
00:50:52.040 final, this might have been
00:50:53.380 the point where Putin just
00:50:55.540 said, you know, I can see
00:50:59.560 Poland.
00:51:00.460 They don't even speak
00:51:01.700 Russian.
00:51:02.680 But when you're talking
00:51:03.680 about Ukraine, that's
00:51:07.220 that's like just an
00:51:08.800 insult.
00:51:10.100 It's like it goes from
00:51:11.380 strategic things you don't
00:51:14.000 like to personal insult.
00:51:16.440 And I think that's maybe
00:51:17.260 what Ukraine did.
00:51:18.520 I think it crossed the line
00:51:19.880 into personal insult.
00:51:22.300 Personal meaning not just
00:51:23.760 Putin, but almost personal
00:51:26.080 to the Russian personality,
00:51:29.200 if you will.
00:51:29.580 Maddow has proof.
00:51:34.160 Okay.
00:51:39.260 Nazis and commies, right.
00:51:43.560 Only the eastern part of
00:51:44.960 Ukraine speaks Russian.
00:51:47.180 Yeah, but realistically, they
00:51:48.560 need to control it all.
00:51:50.740 I mean, while they're there.
00:51:52.640 Yeah, you could imagine that
00:51:53.840 they would say, oh, we only
00:51:54.900 want the eastern part, and
00:51:56.840 that would make their argument
00:51:58.120 stronger, but as long as
00:52:01.080 they're there, why would
00:52:01.900 they let any of it
00:52:02.760 potentially go to NATO?
00:52:06.200 He invaded Georgia in 2008.
00:52:08.440 Now, Georgia, well, all
00:52:10.620 right, let me reveal my
00:52:11.980 lack of foreign experience.
00:52:16.460 What language do the
00:52:17.560 Georgians speak?
00:52:19.920 Fact check me.
00:52:20.900 What language do the
00:52:22.000 Georgians speak?
00:52:23.600 Georgian is language, right?
00:52:24.920 But they would also, I
00:52:27.800 imagine, speak Russian
00:52:28.740 for practical reasons.
00:52:33.060 Some Russian, but there's
00:52:34.640 a Georgian Russian, yeah.
00:52:37.580 Yeah, I guess I don't know
00:52:38.820 the background of Georgia
00:52:40.800 so much, but I don't think
00:52:42.900 that there's anything that's,
00:52:44.660 you know, arguably Russian
00:52:46.780 left, is there?
00:52:49.700 I can certainly see them
00:52:51.100 trying to swallow up
00:52:52.020 everything that's arguably
00:52:53.260 Russian.
00:52:53.720 And then Belarus, what is
00:52:57.880 the language they speak in
00:52:59.000 Belarus?
00:53:01.300 Belarusian?
00:53:03.300 Is there a national Belarus?
00:53:05.860 Is it all Russian?
00:53:10.260 Okay.
00:53:10.960 Well, I guess we're all
00:53:11.720 getting a lesson on that
00:53:13.860 part of the country.
00:53:16.520 Guess what topic I didn't
00:53:17.880 mention today?
00:53:18.560 Yeah, you know.
00:53:22.800 Yep.
00:53:23.440 There's a big old topic.
00:53:26.060 Big old topic I didn't
00:53:27.540 mention today.
00:53:29.300 Doesn't that feel good?
00:53:31.860 I can't give you good news
00:53:33.320 about Ukraine.
00:53:35.220 I can't do it.
00:53:37.300 But if you've been keeping
00:53:38.680 track, today is the first
00:53:41.400 day in two years that a
00:53:45.820 certain topic did not cross
00:53:47.420 my live stream.
00:53:49.500 And that, ladies and
00:53:50.440 gentlemen, is a weird
00:53:52.900 coincidence that we get
00:53:54.460 this new national problem
00:53:56.140 or international problem
00:53:57.400 at the same time that the
00:53:59.160 old one seems to go away.
00:54:05.200 Coincidence?
00:54:06.860 Probably not.
00:54:08.440 It's hard to launch a war
00:54:09.820 during a...
00:54:11.220 I'm not going to say it.
00:54:12.040 I'm going to quit now.
00:54:15.560 I'm going to quit now.
00:54:16.460 Do you agree?
00:54:18.020 This would be the time.
00:54:19.640 All right.
00:54:20.020 YouTube, I'll see you
00:54:20.740 tomorrow.
00:54:21.160 All right.
00:54:21.260 YouTube, I'll see you tomorrow.