Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1667 Scott Adams： What Happens Next in Ukraine. And Welcome to WWIII. You'll Be Fine

00:00:00.920 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to not only the best place in the world at the best

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00:00:52.420 Live from Switzerland.

00:00:54.580 Good to have you here, Switzerland.

00:00:56.700 Join me now.

00:00:57.560 Go.

00:01:00.000 So, Switzerland, you feeling neutral now or are you feeling a little more than neutral?

00:01:13.140 Well, let's talk about all the things happening today.

00:01:16.780 Let's see.

00:01:18.420 Anything happening today?

00:01:20.940 Checking notes.

00:01:21.920 Oh, World War III broke out.

00:01:27.020 What would be the definition of a world war?

00:01:31.300 Wouldn't it be a war that involved basically all the industrialized countries of the world

00:01:37.780 in a substantial way?

00:01:39.060 Now, keep in mind that even in World War II, most of the citizen population of the world

00:01:46.840 did not get shot.

00:01:49.840 You know, 60 million people did die in World War II, so that's not nothing.

00:01:55.840 But most people had an impact financially or otherwise.

00:02:02.000 And I think we're in World War III because the global financial markets have decided to hell

00:02:11.980 with the global energy markets.

00:02:14.340 And you can see the financial markets start to close in on Russia, which will probably impact

00:02:21.420 energy, which will impact all of us, which will impact inflation, which will impact all

00:02:26.720 kinds of stuff.

00:02:27.920 I think we get a lot of fertilizer from Russia.

00:02:31.200 You know, there's a lot of, you know, grain that comes out of the Ukraine for the world.

00:02:37.140 So, there's a lot going on here.

00:02:41.480 But would you agree with me, would you agree with me that this could legitimately be called

00:02:49.340 a World War III?

00:02:50.200 Because I don't know how you define it other than a war that substantially affects everybody,

00:02:57.680 which is what's happening right now.

00:03:01.760 So, yes and no, it's a matter of opinion.

00:03:03.760 All right.

00:03:04.920 We are, of course, in the fog of war.

00:03:09.080 And I recommend you follow Mike Cernovich whenever we're in the fog of war.

00:03:17.960 One of the reasons is that he will remind you over and over again not to believe stuff

00:03:24.240 that really you shouldn't believe.

00:03:26.900 And he's doing a good job of that, especially during this Ukraine thing.

00:03:31.460 There are some things, I think I've, I think I'm guilty of tweeting some things that are

00:03:37.520 probably not really accurate.

00:03:42.920 And so, you know, he's helping me keep my guardrails on as well.

00:03:46.980 Well, so follow, follow somebody who can remind you not to believe what you see.

00:03:55.440 For a while.

00:03:56.500 I'm not sure you'll ever, you should ever believe it.

00:03:58.900 But for a while, it's real helpful to have people do that.

00:04:03.100 So, that's, you know, quite a service he's providing at the moment.

00:04:07.240 So, here are some things which maybe you shouldn't believe.

00:04:10.540 But maybe you should.

00:04:11.420 I don't know.

00:04:11.780 Do you remember the video, was it Snake Island, the little island where the alleged Ukrainian 1.00

00:04:20.140 fighters said F you to the Russian warship and then the Russian warship killed them all?

00:04:26.580 Well, I don't know if that happened.

00:04:30.440 But I kind of believed it when I first saw it.

00:04:33.660 But then after reading some of Surninovich's tweets, I thought, hmm, not necessarily.

00:04:40.320 So, I'm going to put that one in the maybe, but not, not, I'm not confident enough in it

00:04:47.080 to say that it really happened.

00:04:48.080 But it could have, maybe, shouldn't change anything one way or the other, but that's

00:04:55.300 the level of propaganda we're going to see.

00:04:58.360 Speaking of which, is this propaganda, or does Marco Rubio know something that you don't

00:05:05.280 know?

00:05:06.240 So, Rubio tweeted this yesterday.

00:05:09.440 I wish I could share more, but for now, I can say it's pretty obvious to many that something

00:05:14.900 is off with Putin.

00:05:15.960 He has always been a killer, but his problem now is different and significant.

00:05:21.440 It would be a mistake to assume this Putin would react the same way he would have five

00:05:26.540 years ago.

00:05:28.840 Now, is Marco Rubio tied into enough of the intelligence apparatus to know that he has good

00:05:40.540 intel from behind the scenes that there's something up with Putin and he can't tell you

00:05:45.940 how he knows it?

00:05:46.780 Is that what's happening?

00:05:49.380 Or, is Marco Rubio engaged in propaganda?

00:05:55.480 Which would be quite productive, actually.

00:05:57.940 Because one would assume he had access to insider information.

00:06:03.080 What committee is he on?

00:06:05.840 Marco Rubio, which committee is he on that would give him access?

00:06:10.560 And I'm not even sure he'd need to be on a committee, because he could hear stuff without

00:06:15.500 being on a committee.

00:06:16.940 Is he on Senate intelligence?

00:06:20.040 Foreign relations?

00:06:21.660 All right, well, I don't know.

00:06:23.180 But whatever he's on, I'm pretty sure he's on something that gives him access.

00:06:29.160 However, you should not believe that he necessarily knows something credible.

00:06:33.240 What you should believe is that even if he didn't know something credible, this is probably

00:06:39.400 a good way to act.

00:06:41.660 Because everybody's saying anything in public, especially people who have a big platform,

00:06:46.240 some kind of position, like Rubio does.

00:06:48.440 Are they neutral in this war?

00:06:52.700 Is it Marco Rubio's job to tell you something accurate?

00:06:57.900 Or should he tell you something that might be good for Ukraine?

00:07:02.520 Because it's World War III.

00:07:05.020 What is his obligation?

00:07:07.800 In normal times, I would say his obligation is to give it to us straight.

00:07:13.280 But does he have a bigger obligation to win?

00:07:15.540 You know, to help the good guys win, whoever the good guys are?

00:07:20.700 It's a good question.

00:07:22.320 Because I'm not entirely sure what is the moral or ethical way to play this.

00:07:26.860 If he imagined that simply suggesting that Putin was different in whatever way you wanted

00:07:33.400 to imagine, which would be bad for Putin, whatever it was, maybe it doesn't need to be true.

00:07:41.580 Am I right?

00:07:42.380 Because this is a very unique situation.

00:07:46.240 This is one situation where, if your government's going to lie to you,

00:07:50.920 sometimes all you ask is that they had a good reason.

00:07:55.680 I know some of you are absolutists about honesty, and I get that.

00:08:00.000 It's a perfectly reasonable point of view.

00:08:02.160 But in the real world, people also look at what the total impact of things is going to be

00:08:10.280 and the total cost of things.

00:08:12.360 And it could be that our own government has decided that just bullshitting us totally on

00:08:17.320 what's going on might be good for the world, in somebody's legitimate opinion.

00:08:23.460 So, don't trust it automatically.

00:08:30.320 And that brings me to me.

00:08:35.880 All right, you're all watching this, and if you've watched me for a while,

00:08:41.240 you, I hope, have come to the conclusion that I will try to be objective on pretty much everything.

00:08:49.620 I'm not objective on the question of fentanyl in China.

00:08:54.600 Well, you know why, right?

00:08:55.900 I'm fully transparent about that.

00:08:59.180 However, I don't know if I could be completely unbiased

00:09:04.380 in the context of literally being part of a world war.

00:09:08.760 And so, I'm going to give you that warning, that I feel like it's fair warning.

00:09:17.500 Let me know if this goes too far or not far enough.

00:09:20.860 I feel as if I can't promise you that I will intentionally try to be unbiased

00:09:27.760 talking about Ukraine and Russia.

00:09:30.440 I just can't promise you that.

00:09:32.780 But I want you to know that, right?

00:09:35.280 So, that's, I don't know, maybe there's just no way to play this completely ethically.

00:09:41.280 Because the most ethical thing to do would be whatever helps the most people.

00:09:46.580 But how do I know?

00:09:48.680 Who knows?

00:09:49.620 Maybe the truth is the only thing that helps people.

00:09:52.660 Maybe.

00:09:53.460 I mean, that would be a perfectly reasonable view.

00:09:56.860 So, just be cautious.

00:10:00.000 Just be cautious when you listen to me on this topic.

00:10:02.540 The same way you should be cautious about every other person.

00:10:07.400 Just bring the same skepticism to everything I say.

00:10:11.360 And just know that you're doing it with my full awareness and permission.

00:10:15.960 This is one where you've got to watch me carefully.

00:10:18.980 Okay?

00:10:19.800 Just so you know.

00:10:21.980 All right.

00:10:22.580 I did a poll on Twitter, which, again, is my totally unbiased approach to this.

00:10:34.580 Watch how unbiased I am.

00:10:37.280 In my poll, I gave people four choices for what was the reason for Putin's apparent change.

00:10:43.980 You know, a lot of people saying he's changed.

00:10:46.380 We won't say that's true, but a lot of people are saying it.

00:10:50.060 Marco Rubio being one.

00:10:51.340 You see Fox News pundits say it.

00:10:55.760 And a number of people said it.

00:10:57.940 And I've said it as well.

00:10:59.360 It just looks like it to me.

00:11:01.900 But 11% of people thought maybe drugs were involved.

00:11:06.540 18% said mental health.

00:11:08.940 And by the way, this is not a scientific poll.

00:11:11.000 This is just my Twitter followers.

00:11:13.800 36% said it was just war propaganda.

00:11:16.260 So it would be people like me, people like Marco Rubio, maybe just trying to bias things with the suggestion that he's insane.

00:11:27.060 And you would expect that our intelligence agencies would be trying to do that as well.

00:11:31.660 And then 36%, I'm so proud of you.

00:11:36.420 I really am.

00:11:37.360 36% said confirmation bias.

00:11:41.220 Is that a healthy sign or what?

00:11:46.440 Now, of course, I primed you by putting that choice there in the first place.

00:11:52.220 So, you know, it's not scientific, and I primed you for it.

00:11:56.320 But still, 36%, I find that really encouraging.

00:12:00.720 Because it means people are sort of hyper-aware of that effect in a way that we're always aware.

00:12:10.240 But there's a really difference.

00:12:11.680 There's a big difference between being aware that confirmation exists and being hyper-aware,

00:12:18.220 which means you can even watch it yourself.

00:12:20.820 You can watch it in real time.

00:12:22.400 Oh, that's confirmation bias.

00:12:24.040 It's different.

00:12:24.620 And I would say that something really, really healthy is happening, at least among the people who are following me.

00:12:32.380 And that 36% would just automatically go to that.

00:12:35.480 Because you know what?

00:12:37.440 If you were going to bet, you know, if you saw how the public, at least this limited, unscientific sample of the public,

00:12:49.000 if you saw how they answered, and then I said to you, all right, now cast your bet.

00:12:53.240 If you had some magical way to know the truth later, which one do you bet on?

00:12:59.440 I feel like I'd bet on confirmation bias.

00:13:03.480 Would you?

00:13:05.480 But even though that's not my opinion, my opinion is drugs.

00:13:10.720 My opinion is drugs.

00:13:13.100 Because it looks like it.

00:13:15.420 Which is not a good enough reason, right?

00:13:17.300 So I'm putting, I guess, my cumulative life's knowledge about why people change and how they change and what drugs do to people

00:13:28.680 and what kind of people would be on what kind of drugs.

00:13:32.200 So I'm kind of bringing together like a whole bunch of parts of my skill stack, if I could put it that way.

00:13:40.080 And my opinion is, my opinion sides with the smallest number of the public, that is drugs.

00:13:49.640 Now it might also be mental health, but I'm sure drugs are involved.

00:13:55.220 I would say the odds that he's not on some kind of drug that is known to affect your cognitive or personality or something,

00:14:04.300 the odds of that are really small, in my opinion.

00:14:08.200 Doesn't mean it's the whole story.

00:14:10.300 There's a lot of variables involved.

00:14:12.540 But I'm pretty sure drugs are involved.

00:14:14.400 I think that's going to be one of the stories here.

00:14:17.540 On top of, perhaps, some health issues as well.

00:14:22.120 But if I had to bet on it, I would bet against myself.

00:14:26.520 Does that make sense?

00:14:27.520 If I had to put my actual money on it, I would bet against my own opinion that I hold quite firmly.

00:14:34.300 Because I'm also aware that confirmation bias is usually right.

00:14:41.240 I hate to say it.

00:14:43.220 It's usually right.

00:14:45.460 That's why it's so important to know about it.

00:14:47.900 Because it's usually right.

00:14:50.620 All right.

00:14:51.240 So.

00:14:52.760 How about everybody's predictions so far?

00:14:58.480 Can I ask you in the comments,

00:15:00.480 was there one other person in the public domain

00:15:05.540 who told you that the Russian army might be surprised

00:15:09.440 by the, let's say, the effectiveness of the weapons

00:15:14.940 that Ukraine would bring against the invasion?

00:15:19.380 Was there anybody else who told you,

00:15:21.760 I think you might be surprised?

00:15:23.260 I think it was just me.

00:15:27.080 Oh, sticks and hammer did?

00:15:29.320 Anybody else?

00:15:33.060 Now, in all caps, I'm being asked,

00:15:40.340 do you believe that?

00:15:41.460 And the answer is, no.

00:15:44.520 Now, when I read the stories that say that Ukraine has,

00:15:49.180 you know, is unexpectedly successful,

00:15:52.980 is it too early to say that that's true?

00:15:57.780 Yes.

00:15:58.580 It's way too early.

00:16:00.260 Because it took, I guess, a couple weeks

00:16:03.420 for even the U.S. forces to overrun, what,

00:16:06.780 Fallujah and Baghdad or whatever.

00:16:08.540 So it actually could take a few weeks

00:16:11.320 for a proper, you know, control of a city.

00:16:16.340 And the Russian army may have sent in some probes

00:16:19.620 just to test the defense.

00:16:21.900 And now they're assembling the resources they need

00:16:24.500 based on what they've learned.

00:16:26.360 And it might take a week.

00:16:28.080 And then they'll encircle the city isn't taken over.

00:16:31.260 That's possible.

00:16:32.980 So do you believe the reports

00:16:34.660 that seem to agree with your confirmation bias

00:16:38.740 that Ukraine is putting up a big fight 0.72

00:16:42.700 and it's working?

00:16:44.340 What do you think?

00:16:47.660 Okay, Fallujah was the wrong example.

00:16:53.740 What do you think?

00:16:54.940 I don't know what to believe yet.

00:16:56.960 But I would say it's way too soon for me to say,

00:16:59.540 yes, they were surprised by better weaponry

00:17:02.040 than they imagined.

00:17:02.960 However, how good do you think an anti-tank missile is?

00:17:10.480 If somebody is hiding at a reasonable distance

00:17:14.260 and the person hiding can see the tank,

00:17:17.420 but the tank can't see them right away,

00:17:20.920 does the tank missile hit the tank most of the time?

00:17:27.020 I mean, is it pretty much one missile equals one tank,

00:17:30.180 give or take?

00:17:31.160 Is the R equals one? 0.97

00:17:34.140 One missile equals one tank pretty much every time?

00:17:37.980 Because it seems to me that if you could see a tank

00:17:40.360 and your missile knew how to find a tank,

00:17:43.620 it would be hard to mistake a tank with anything else.

00:17:48.420 Yeah.

00:17:49.240 And so the thing that I've been speculating about is,

00:17:53.880 is it possible to invade and hold a country

00:17:56.940 that is a modern country

00:17:59.340 that has access to unlimited modern weaponry

00:18:04.080 because it's coming across the border

00:18:07.020 and they have lots of friends?

00:18:10.380 I feel as if it can't be done

00:18:12.400 because I feel as if you would need

00:18:14.660 the advantage of the troop transporters

00:18:18.380 and the tanks and the heavy equipment

00:18:20.820 to hold the country, right?

00:18:23.560 And I think heavy equipment all gets destroyed

00:18:27.560 if you have unlimited number of handheld anti-tank stuff.

00:18:34.580 Now, I saw a bunch of data that I don't believe

00:18:38.340 about how much got destroyed,

00:18:40.600 how many tanks and troop transports and stuff,

00:18:43.240 and they looked ridiculous.

00:18:45.700 So I don't believe these numbers at all

00:18:47.260 coming from the Ukraine side.

00:18:49.180 So I don't believe they killed 4,800 Russians.

00:18:52.080 That sounds too high.

00:18:53.820 I don't believe they blew up 706 troop transport vehicles,

00:19:00.360 presumably with troops in them.

00:19:03.840 I think the war would already be over 0.61

00:19:06.140 if Russia lost 706 transport vehicles

00:19:10.880 in the first, you know, 48 hours.

00:19:14.560 So I don't believe those numbers.

00:19:17.540 But how many missiles do you think Ukraine has?

00:19:21.200 Whatever the handheld anti-tank things are called.

00:19:24.380 How many do you think they have?

00:19:26.340 Tens of thousands, right?

00:19:27.580 If they have tens of thousands of these

00:19:31.020 shoulder-mounted things

00:19:33.580 and they understand the landscape

00:19:36.080 and they know exactly where Russia has to go

00:19:38.300 to get where it goes,

00:19:40.020 because they're letting Russia on the roads.

00:19:43.260 Didn't you wonder why Ukraine 0.99

00:19:45.400 didn't try to stop them at the border?

00:19:47.520 Like, why would Ukraine leave a bridge

00:19:49.360 where they could just cross into the country?

00:19:53.080 It looks an awful lot

00:19:54.940 like they wanted Russia 0.79

00:19:56.360 to bring their heavy equipment into the country.

00:19:58.400 Am I so bad at understanding military strategy

00:20:03.560 that that's stupid?

00:20:05.720 It looks exactly like they suckered them

00:20:08.180 into a kill zone,

00:20:09.700 meaning that there was no way

00:20:11.660 this heavy equipment

00:20:13.500 could ever reach an urban center

00:20:16.380 because they would have to go through

00:20:18.220 an unlimited number of, you know,

00:20:21.580 of anti-tank equipment.

00:20:24.800 Now, I'm also seeing that

00:20:28.020 maybe some Turkish drones were used.

00:20:33.520 I saw some footage,

00:20:34.500 but you can't trust any footage, right?

00:20:36.360 Don't trust any military footage

00:20:38.260 you see coming out of this.

00:20:39.820 So, I don't know about that.

00:20:42.360 But, how many of those would they have?

00:20:46.140 If Turkey had been providing drones,

00:20:48.760 and I'm not positive that's true,

00:20:50.600 how many do they have?

00:20:51.880 Because it seems like they could have a lot, right?

00:20:57.360 Nobody ever talked about

00:20:58.840 how much stuff Ukraine had defensively

00:21:02.080 because maybe nobody knew.

00:21:06.260 Yeah, Turkey is NATO,

00:21:08.240 but that doesn't mean that

00:21:09.860 this is NATO involvement

00:21:11.400 because anybody can sell weapons.

00:21:13.980 They may have just sold them,

00:21:15.900 I assume.

00:21:18.020 The bridges over the Dynapur

00:21:20.280 are still there.

00:21:21.160 So, how many of you think

00:21:25.280 it looks like Ukraine

00:21:26.860 suckered their heavy equipment in

00:21:28.620 and they just turned it into a kill box

00:21:30.740 and they're just going to take you?

00:21:33.920 You know what it looks like?

00:21:38.700 I'm saying lots of no's.

00:21:41.400 Lots of no's.

00:21:42.840 It could be just,

00:21:43.720 it wasn't a strategy,

00:21:44.680 it's just the only thing they could do

00:21:46.140 because they couldn't stop them

00:21:47.620 at the border, probably.

00:21:48.440 Okay.

00:21:51.160 Yeah, I mean,

00:21:53.360 maybe that's just a description

00:21:54.940 of guerrilla warfare.

00:21:56.340 So, I suppose

00:21:56.860 I'm adding nothing to it.

00:21:58.940 It's just a description

00:21:59.940 of guerrilla warfare.

00:22:01.040 Everybody knew that would be the strategy.

00:22:05.120 And Russia might have to

00:22:06.660 outrun their supply line,

00:22:08.360 that's right.

00:22:09.360 So,

00:22:10.320 here's what's interesting.

00:22:12.160 Really, a lot of it's interesting

00:22:13.620 in a tragic way.

00:22:14.640 If Ukraine can hold 0.88

00:22:17.940 until Monday

00:22:19.200 and markets open in Russia

00:22:21.540 and just all the Russian

00:22:24.000 financial assets tank,

00:22:26.400 which it looks like

00:22:27.380 is going to happen,

00:22:28.860 that changes everything,

00:22:30.780 doesn't it?

00:22:31.980 Because that would show Russia 1.00

00:22:33.480 that the rest of the world

00:22:35.240 wasn't going to let it go.

00:22:40.260 Scott,

00:22:40.960 Russia is holding 0.70

00:22:41.680 capitulation talks

00:22:42.860 with Ukraine right now.

00:22:44.500 I don't think anything's

00:22:45.620 going to happen with that.

00:22:48.060 Do you?

00:22:52.260 The Russian stock market

00:22:53.580 is tiny,

00:22:54.240 somebody says.

00:22:55.100 Well,

00:22:55.700 it matters to Russia,

00:22:56.900 I'm sure.

00:22:57.280 So,

00:22:58.360 I saw somebody

00:23:00.120 tweeting a list

00:23:02.200 of photos

00:23:03.480 and descriptions

00:23:04.280 of all the Russian 0.53

00:23:05.520 billionaires' yachts,

00:23:07.640 you know,

00:23:07.800 the really expensive

00:23:08.520 multi-billion dollar yachts.

00:23:12.400 The Russian,

00:23:13.560 I think the Russian oligarchs

00:23:15.180 are absolutely screwed

00:23:16.640 at this point.

00:23:18.040 Screwed.

00:23:20.100 Here's the thing

00:23:20.960 you probably didn't see coming.

00:23:22.920 And I didn't see it coming.

00:23:24.160 But you know how

00:23:25.660 we're talking about Russia

00:23:26.680 as making a decapitation run?

00:23:30.080 That the whole point

00:23:31.060 was to decapitate

00:23:32.740 the government?

00:23:34.560 Am I wrong

00:23:35.880 that Putin and Zelensky 0.74

00:23:40.040 are racing for pink slips

00:23:41.680 at this point?

00:23:44.000 Do you recognize

00:23:44.860 that analogy?

00:23:46.520 Zelensky and Putin

00:23:47.640 are racing for pink slips.

00:23:49.400 What I mean by that

00:23:51.600 is Zelensky

00:23:53.220 is as close

00:23:54.220 to owning Russia 0.86

00:23:55.300 as Putin is

00:23:57.200 to owning Ukraine.

00:23:59.420 You didn't see that coming,

00:24:00.720 did you?

00:24:01.420 Let me ask you

00:24:02.180 something else,

00:24:02.920 hypothetically.

00:24:06.540 Isn't Zelensky Russian?

00:24:09.380 Wasn't he born in Russia?

00:24:11.840 Can somebody give me

00:24:12.740 a fact check on that?

00:24:14.360 Was Zelensky

00:24:15.140 born in Russia?

00:24:15.960 He has a Jewish background,

00:24:21.000 but that's not

00:24:22.080 as relevant

00:24:22.720 at the moment.

00:24:25.360 No,

00:24:25.940 Southeast Ukraine,

00:24:26.780 somebody says.

00:24:27.300 All right.

00:24:27.880 So,

00:24:28.280 actually,

00:24:28.660 it doesn't matter.

00:24:29.620 Remember,

00:24:30.100 Putin's whole point 0.83

00:24:30.920 is that Russia

00:24:31.540 and Ukraine

00:24:31.960 are the same country,

00:24:32.960 right?

00:24:34.620 You see where

00:24:35.120 I'm going with this?

00:24:36.940 If you race

00:24:37.860 for pink slips

00:24:38.720 and you lose,

00:24:40.400 and your entire argument

00:24:42.160 was that Ukraine

00:24:43.060 and Russia

00:24:43.540 are the same country,

00:24:44.540 but you've got

00:24:45.860 two leaders.

00:24:47.440 You've got Zelensky,

00:24:48.800 you've got Putin,

00:24:50.240 but there's only

00:24:50.800 one country.

00:24:53.980 They're racing

00:24:54.740 for pink slips.

00:24:56.760 I think Zelensky

00:24:57.720 could either literally

00:24:59.120 or maybe by influence

00:25:01.840 end up controlling Russia.

00:25:06.080 Is that insane?

00:25:08.580 You're saying you're nuts.

00:25:09.700 I'm not saying

00:25:10.180 it's likely.

00:25:11.580 I'm not going to say

00:25:12.400 that's a 50% likelihood.

00:25:13.800 I'm saying that

00:25:15.220 you really can't predict

00:25:17.360 what happens

00:25:17.960 with these things.

00:25:19.280 How many of you

00:25:19.880 thought Nelson Mandela

00:25:21.040 was going to be

00:25:21.740 the president

00:25:23.100 of South Africa?

00:25:25.220 Uh-huh.

00:25:26.100 Uh-huh.

00:25:27.380 Suddenly,

00:25:28.060 it doesn't look

00:25:28.500 so crazy,

00:25:29.140 does it?

00:25:31.100 Right?

00:25:32.340 The person

00:25:33.620 who is beaten

00:25:34.220 to a pulp

00:25:34.920 and survives

00:25:36.120 ends up being,

00:25:39.480 you know,

00:25:40.720 a senator

00:25:41.300 someday,

00:25:42.920 looking at,

00:25:43.480 you know,

00:25:43.680 the civil rights

00:25:45.440 movement

00:25:45.780 in the United States.

00:25:47.140 Right?

00:25:47.420 If you get beaten

00:25:48.260 to almost death,

00:25:50.020 but you survive,

00:25:52.360 there's a good chance

00:25:54.060 you're going to be

00:25:54.520 in charge someday.

00:25:55.980 That's just sort

00:25:56.920 of the way it works.

00:25:58.220 Now,

00:25:58.640 what are the odds

00:25:59.320 that Russians 1.00

00:25:59.820 would accept

00:26:01.040 Zelensky as their leader?

00:26:03.360 Pretty low.

00:26:04.780 What are the odds

00:26:05.520 that if Putin failed,

00:26:07.380 there wouldn't be

00:26:08.180 just another oligarch

00:26:09.160 to take his place?

00:26:10.560 Pretty high.

00:26:12.280 Yeah,

00:26:12.860 I think the odds

00:26:13.940 are very small.

00:26:17.440 But they exist.

00:26:19.780 They actually exist.

00:26:21.020 I think

00:26:22.020 vanishingly small

00:26:23.900 that Zelensky

00:26:24.700 would be actually

00:26:25.460 literally the head

00:26:26.260 of Russia.

00:26:27.680 But not vanishingly small

00:26:29.500 that his influence

00:26:30.520 could decide

00:26:32.340 who gets the job

00:26:33.940 if Putin goes.

00:26:36.000 I mean,

00:26:36.240 it could be

00:26:36.860 that much influence

00:26:38.020 at that point.

00:26:40.080 You were ranting today.

00:26:42.820 Yeah,

00:26:43.060 maybe Navalny.

00:26:44.340 Could be interesting.

00:26:47.920 All right,

00:26:48.300 on the question of

00:26:49.140 is China being emboldened

00:26:51.300 by this

00:26:51.920 and looking at Taiwan

00:26:53.460 and licking its chops, 1.00

00:26:56.560 weren't all the smart people

00:26:58.180 saying,

00:26:59.580 just a week ago,

00:27:00.500 all the smart people

00:27:01.280 were saying,

00:27:02.360 wow,

00:27:02.640 this is going to be

00:27:03.180 a double move.

00:27:04.820 China's going to see 0.99

00:27:05.540 how easy this is.

00:27:06.560 They'll make a move

00:27:07.140 on Taiwan.

00:27:07.700 But what happens

00:27:09.620 if it turns out

00:27:10.240 that Russia 0.72

00:27:10.700 gets destroyed

00:27:12.160 by this,

00:27:13.480 which is what's

00:27:14.620 happening right now?

00:27:18.960 And Mark Schneider

00:27:20.340 pointed this out

00:27:21.180 in a tweet,

00:27:22.960 that Ukraine 0.91

00:27:23.680 shares a border

00:27:24.520 with Russia,

00:27:25.700 which makes invasion

00:27:27.360 fairly practical,

00:27:28.820 but Taiwan

00:27:29.620 is an island.

00:27:31.020 So you'd have to do

00:27:31.940 a naval attack

00:27:33.800 to control Taiwan.

00:27:34.820 I mean,

00:27:35.300 you could bomb

00:27:36.260 the crap out of it,

00:27:37.120 but to control it,

00:27:38.500 you'd need to do

00:27:39.060 something on the ground.

00:27:40.600 To get to the ground,

00:27:41.740 you've got to cross water.

00:27:43.580 And as Mark points out,

00:27:45.320 who used to serve

00:27:46.180 on submarines,

00:27:48.180 that Taiwan is an island.

00:27:50.420 China would need

00:27:50.960 to launch

00:27:51.360 an amphibious assault

00:27:52.440 and supplies

00:27:53.720 will need to cross water.

00:27:56.200 And as Mark points out,

00:27:58.000 one piece of hardware

00:27:58.980 makes that difficult.

00:28:01.120 Submarines.

00:28:01.600 How many submarines

00:28:03.800 are protecting Taiwan?

00:28:05.780 And how many

00:28:06.540 would it take?

00:28:08.100 And I asked Mark

00:28:08.980 this question.

00:28:09.580 I haven't seen

00:28:10.000 if he responded yet.

00:28:11.500 But do we know

00:28:12.820 if submarines

00:28:13.820 beat anti-summarine

00:28:15.420 or does an anti-summarine

00:28:17.360 beat a submarine

00:28:18.000 in 2022?

00:28:21.360 You know,

00:28:21.660 is the best

00:28:22.540 anti-summarine

00:28:23.620 better than the

00:28:24.640 pretty good submarine?

00:28:26.580 Or is the best submarine

00:28:28.060 better than the best

00:28:30.080 anti-summarine?

00:28:32.840 Does anybody even know?

00:28:34.580 Because we've never

00:28:35.420 had a war

00:28:35.960 of the top submarines,

00:28:37.520 have we?

00:28:38.600 So I don't think we know.

00:28:41.440 So,

00:28:42.300 it'd be pretty hard

00:28:43.280 for China

00:28:44.140 to have any kind

00:28:45.840 of a land assault.

00:28:48.500 All right.

00:28:51.040 I'm starting to think

00:28:52.360 that the importance

00:28:53.320 of Twitter

00:28:53.940 and social media

00:28:55.840 is way beyond

00:28:57.720 even our greatest

00:28:59.040 imagination.

00:29:00.080 And what I mean

00:29:01.560 by that is

00:29:02.040 I wonder if social media

00:29:03.140 has formed

00:29:03.660 sort of a

00:29:04.580 self-healing mechanism

00:29:06.580 for exactly

00:29:09.140 something like

00:29:09.940 the Ukraine-Russia

00:29:11.060 situation.

00:29:12.480 Now,

00:29:13.140 self-healing things

00:29:14.160 don't happen immediately.

00:29:15.560 Like,

00:29:16.060 it takes a while

00:29:16.740 for them to kick in.

00:29:18.420 But are you not

00:29:19.720 watching social media

00:29:21.600 move governments

00:29:23.340 in real time?

00:29:25.100 That's what's happening,

00:29:26.260 right?

00:29:26.440 isn't it social media?

00:29:29.680 It's not the news.

00:29:31.820 And I don't think

00:29:32.520 it's the people

00:29:32.980 in the streets,

00:29:34.300 as many of them

00:29:35.180 as there are,

00:29:36.340 because they haven't

00:29:36.980 been there long enough

00:29:37.860 making enough noise

00:29:38.820 to really make a difference.

00:29:40.400 But it seems to me

00:29:41.560 that because governments

00:29:43.520 can immediately

00:29:44.200 see social media

00:29:45.280 and they can read

00:29:46.640 the room,

00:29:47.360 you know,

00:29:48.000 faster,

00:29:48.420 I think you're

00:29:50.300 seeing social media

00:29:51.300 seeing a cancer,

00:29:53.880 which is Putin

00:29:54.940 attacking Ukraine.

00:29:56.820 I think social media

00:29:58.020 recognizes it

00:29:58.900 as a cancer

00:29:59.600 on the body.

00:30:01.240 And you're watching

00:30:02.180 social media

00:30:03.060 actually form

00:30:04.660 a healing,

00:30:05.700 protective,

00:30:07.440 defensive shield.

00:30:10.280 Right?

00:30:11.420 Because social media

00:30:12.600 is what allows

00:30:13.660 Germany

00:30:14.300 to break

00:30:15.720 its own rules

00:30:16.420 and allow

00:30:17.680 their deadly weapons

00:30:19.580 to go into Ukraine,

00:30:20.520 which just happened.

00:30:22.380 Social media

00:30:23.340 allowed banks

00:30:25.340 and the SWIFT thing

00:30:26.700 to happen,

00:30:27.520 or whatever

00:30:28.040 is going to happen there,

00:30:29.320 because

00:30:30.140 the world could tell

00:30:31.940 that social media

00:30:32.800 was going to support it.

00:30:34.560 Am I wrong?

00:30:35.340 Well,

00:30:35.420 it didn't matter

00:30:37.060 what everybody thought,

00:30:38.920 because most people

00:30:39.600 aren't paying attention.

00:30:41.380 It mattered

00:30:42.060 what social media thought,

00:30:43.680 because they're the ones

00:30:44.560 really paying attention,

00:30:45.520 moving opinions,

00:30:47.380 you know,

00:30:47.540 the ones who have

00:30:48.100 the levers of society.

00:30:50.500 So,

00:30:51.100 we may be watching

00:30:53.280 something fairly miraculous,

00:30:57.060 but also largely

00:30:58.740 below our notice,

00:31:00.300 which is that

00:31:01.560 this is really

00:31:02.400 a social media war

00:31:04.720 with a kinetic component,

00:31:07.400 which starts the whole thing.

00:31:09.540 But I think

00:31:10.520 the collective actions

00:31:12.520 of the world

00:31:13.480 as expressed

00:31:15.160 through social media

00:31:16.020 in real time

00:31:16.700 are having

00:31:17.840 a huge effect on this.

00:31:19.480 And I can't imagine

00:31:20.200 this would have been true

00:31:21.060 in any prior war

00:31:22.260 of,

00:31:24.500 you know,

00:31:24.680 we don't have anything

00:31:25.600 that's a good analogy

00:31:26.920 to this one,

00:31:27.540 actually.

00:31:28.900 So,

00:31:31.620 I guess the two big cities

00:31:35.280 are apparently

00:31:36.360 repelling attacks.

00:31:38.520 That part is probably true.

00:31:40.000 I think we'd know

00:31:41.040 if any major city

00:31:42.300 had fallen.

00:31:44.700 So,

00:31:44.940 I feel like

00:31:45.500 we do know

00:31:46.340 that it hasn't happened yet,

00:31:47.720 if it's going to happen at all.

00:31:49.720 So,

00:31:50.280 here's the most interesting story

00:31:51.700 involving this.

00:31:53.160 The Vice Prime Minister

00:31:54.580 of Ukraine

00:31:55.260 and the Minister

00:31:57.020 of Digital Transformation

00:31:58.380 of Ukraine,

00:31:59.500 he tweeted

00:32:00.100 to Elon Musk,

00:32:01.680 he said,

00:32:02.060 while trying to colonize Mars,

00:32:04.340 Russia tried to occupy Ukraine.

00:32:06.860 While your rockets

00:32:07.760 successfully land from space,

00:32:09.420 Russia rockets

00:32:10.100 attack Ukrainian civil people.

00:32:12.740 We ask you,

00:32:13.720 now he's talking directly

00:32:14.800 to Elon Musk,

00:32:16.060 he says,

00:32:16.540 we ask you to provide Ukraine

00:32:18.040 with Starlink stations,

00:32:19.940 these are the satellites

00:32:21.060 that Musk's company has,

00:32:24.480 and to address

00:32:25.320 the sane Russians to stand. 0.91

00:32:26.840 and within hours,

00:32:31.500 I think,

00:32:32.940 Elon Musk tweeted back,

00:32:35.240 Starlink service

00:32:36.180 is now active in Ukraine.

00:32:38.280 More terminals

00:32:39.200 en route.

00:32:39.840 You need the terminals

00:32:40.660 to be able to access it,

00:32:41.880 so they must be

00:32:42.440 shipping those in.

00:32:47.420 Did that change things,

00:32:49.000 or is that my imagination?

00:32:50.000 I feel as if

00:32:52.720 there's no way

00:32:54.840 to hold,

00:32:55.880 conquer,

00:32:56.260 and hold the country

00:32:56.980 under the following conditions.

00:32:59.880 And I think

00:33:00.780 Elon Musk

00:33:01.480 just provided

00:33:02.400 the last of the conditions

00:33:03.700 that are necessary.

00:33:05.380 Number one,

00:33:06.740 the entire world

00:33:07.620 is on your side.

00:33:10.400 You know,

00:33:11.020 not the entire world,

00:33:12.140 but even China

00:33:14.160 doesn't seem to be

00:33:14.980 on Russia's side.

00:33:16.180 They're watching.

00:33:18.020 But basically,

00:33:18.780 nobody's on Russia's side.

00:33:20.000 at this point.

00:33:21.060 Really.

00:33:22.380 So that's condition one.

00:33:23.900 That is satisfied.

00:33:25.520 Condition two,

00:33:27.040 you have borders

00:33:27.880 which allow

00:33:28.700 the rest of the world

00:33:29.740 to ship in

00:33:30.380 unlimited amount

00:33:31.500 of,

00:33:32.300 you know,

00:33:35.540 deadly lethal force.

00:33:38.380 That is satisfied.

00:33:40.180 They have to have

00:33:40.880 the willingness

00:33:41.380 to do it,

00:33:42.200 and the ability,

00:33:43.280 and they have that.

00:33:45.100 Then you need

00:33:46.220 communications.

00:33:47.700 Because the best weapons

00:33:50.940 in the world

00:33:51.460 aren't really that good,

00:33:52.900 even these great

00:33:53.680 shoulder-held tank things,

00:33:56.240 unless at least

00:33:57.580 the military units

00:33:58.680 can communicate

00:33:59.360 with each other

00:34:00.080 and say,

00:34:01.080 hey,

00:34:01.320 there's a unit

00:34:02.540 coming this way.

00:34:04.540 Put, you know,

00:34:05.860 put your defenses

00:34:06.720 here or there.

00:34:07.540 It's possible

00:34:09.740 that Elon Musk

00:34:10.960 just provided

00:34:12.160 the last thing

00:34:13.180 that Ukraine needs

00:34:14.220 to survive,

00:34:16.060 on top of

00:34:16.980 incredible bravery,

00:34:18.920 apparently,

00:34:20.060 and a leader

00:34:20.760 who's

00:34:21.300 pretty smart

00:34:23.380 about this so far

00:34:24.240 and is leading

00:34:26.040 the way you would expect

00:34:27.060 or hope.

00:34:27.780 You'd hope a leader

00:34:28.500 would lead.

00:34:29.580 Now, of course,

00:34:30.600 you also can't believe

00:34:31.600 anything about Zelensky.

00:34:33.440 Whatever we hear

00:34:35.940 about him,

00:34:36.440 you should also

00:34:36.880 put the same

00:34:37.420 skeptical hat on.

00:34:39.060 Don't believe

00:34:40.120 he's necessarily

00:34:41.140 as awesome.

00:34:42.380 We can find out

00:34:43.280 anything later,

00:34:44.280 but at the moment,

00:34:45.000 that's the narrative

00:34:45.660 that's holding.

00:34:49.360 Once again,

00:34:50.600 because my life

00:34:51.580 is unusual,

00:34:52.440 I became part

00:34:53.260 of this story

00:34:53.960 about Elon Musk

00:34:55.860 and Starlink

00:34:56.560 in Ukraine.

00:34:57.120 It's the weirdest

00:34:59.800 thing.

00:35:00.220 I'm just

00:35:00.500 sitting here

00:35:02.700 in my office

00:35:03.840 where I am

00:35:04.780 every day

00:35:05.320 sending out tweets

00:35:07.060 and then I see

00:35:08.960 a Daily Wire

00:35:09.700 report

00:35:10.780 that talks about

00:35:11.540 Elon Musk

00:35:12.120 and Starlink

00:35:12.780 in Ukraine

00:35:13.300 and then it

00:35:14.620 mentions

00:35:15.100 half a dozen

00:35:16.080 political commentators

00:35:17.740 and it mentioned

00:35:18.520 my tweet

00:35:19.080 in which I said

00:35:20.420 pushes a button

00:35:21.480 and changes

00:35:22.000 the course of history.

00:35:24.320 Now,

00:35:24.900 of course,

00:35:26.620 that's hyperbole.

00:35:28.280 It takes more

00:35:29.200 than pushing a button

00:35:30.080 to get this done.

00:35:31.960 You know,

00:35:32.120 they've got to get

00:35:32.540 the terminals there.

00:35:33.560 It's a pretty big

00:35:34.280 operation,

00:35:35.020 one assumes.

00:35:37.220 And I do think

00:35:39.400 it'll change

00:35:39.920 the course of history,

00:35:40.840 though,

00:35:41.540 because once

00:35:44.940 dictators can't 0.99

00:35:46.440 control communications,

00:35:48.820 everything changes.

00:35:51.340 And if this is

00:35:53.080 the way

00:35:53.380 that the resistance

00:35:55.100 can communicate

00:35:57.280 well enough

00:35:57.920 to use the

00:35:58.620 weapons that

00:35:59.220 are being shipped

00:35:59.740 in,

00:36:00.380 it changes

00:36:00.960 everything.

00:36:02.380 But you know

00:36:02.820 what else it

00:36:03.280 changes?

00:36:05.180 Elon Musk

00:36:06.160 is in the fight

00:36:07.260 now.

00:36:08.900 So,

00:36:09.700 it gets better.

00:36:11.140 If you thought

00:36:11.740 this was awesome,

00:36:14.360 just listen to this.

00:36:16.140 So,

00:36:16.440 Russia's 0.70

00:36:16.980 head of

00:36:17.900 some space

00:36:18.580 thing

00:36:18.880 starts basically

00:36:20.480 threatening

00:36:21.260 that if

00:36:22.960 Russia is 0.79

00:36:23.820 sanctioned,

00:36:24.460 etc.,

00:36:24.920 they might

00:36:25.640 not have

00:36:26.120 rockets to

00:36:27.000 resupply

00:36:28.540 the

00:36:28.860 International

00:36:30.140 Space Station

00:36:30.900 because Russia

00:36:32.060 had been

00:36:32.500 supplying rockets

00:36:33.760 on a commercial

00:36:34.380 basis.

00:36:36.280 Elon Musk

00:36:37.040 tweets back

00:36:37.780 at him,

00:36:39.480 SpaceX.

00:36:41.700 That's it.

00:36:42.880 Just the brand,

00:36:44.040 like a logo,

00:36:45.280 SpaceX.

00:36:46.440 Because if you

00:36:47.360 aren't paying

00:36:47.760 attention,

00:36:48.640 Elon Musk's

00:36:49.540 SpaceX company

00:36:50.820 has found out

00:36:52.580 how to get

00:36:53.340 stuff in space

00:36:54.180 cheaper,

00:36:55.660 well,

00:36:56.280 at least safer

00:36:56.920 than the

00:36:57.900 Russian option,

00:37:00.060 Elon Musk

00:37:00.900 not only

00:37:02.580 provided

00:37:03.200 communications

00:37:03.980 for the

00:37:04.800 Ukrainian rebels,

00:37:07.840 at about

00:37:08.340 the same time

00:37:09.240 he took out

00:37:10.880 the entire

00:37:12.680 Russian space

00:37:13.880 program.

00:37:15.360 Because if

00:37:16.000 Russia can't 0.99

00:37:17.080 sell its

00:37:19.200 services,

00:37:20.200 I'm not

00:37:20.680 sure they

00:37:21.040 can afford

00:37:21.480 to do

00:37:21.880 it anymore.

00:37:23.420 So if

00:37:23.880 Musk takes 0.88

00:37:24.860 away their

00:37:25.340 ability to

00:37:25.920 charge

00:37:26.280 outrageous

00:37:26.860 amounts,

00:37:27.540 one assumes,

00:37:28.480 to put

00:37:29.040 stuff in

00:37:29.520 space,

00:37:30.320 because he

00:37:30.880 can do

00:37:31.220 it cheaper,

00:37:34.640 Elon Musk

00:37:35.260 just took

00:37:35.860 Russia out 0.96

00:37:36.400 of space.

00:37:38.940 Maybe.

00:37:40.500 I mean,

00:37:40.940 you know,

00:37:41.360 it's hyperbole,

00:37:42.200 right?

00:37:43.120 But maybe.

00:37:44.700 I mean,

00:37:45.380 follow the

00:37:46.080 money.

00:37:47.240 How do

00:37:47.780 they compete

00:37:48.500 if he has

00:37:49.200 a better

00:37:49.600 solution?

00:37:51.380 And it

00:37:51.860 looks like

00:37:52.220 he does.

00:37:54.420 Do you

00:37:54.980 know who

00:37:55.260 doesn't

00:37:55.620 bluff a

00:37:56.140 lot?

00:37:57.720 Elon Musk.

00:37:59.540 He doesn't

00:38:00.280 bluff a lot

00:38:00.960 because he

00:38:01.700 seems to be

00:38:02.160 able to

00:38:02.440 back stuff

00:38:03.000 up.

00:38:03.720 But you

00:38:04.020 know,

00:38:04.260 this isn't

00:38:04.660 even the

00:38:05.000 most important

00:38:05.540 part of

00:38:05.820 the story.

00:38:07.380 Do you

00:38:07.740 know what

00:38:07.980 happens when

00:38:08.620 Elon Musk

00:38:09.480 goes all

00:38:10.500 in?

00:38:10.740 Everybody

00:38:12.440 else does.

00:38:13.840 Because it

00:38:14.320 looks like

00:38:14.660 he's usually

00:38:15.100 right.

00:38:16.460 It just

00:38:17.080 feels like

00:38:17.880 it's safer

00:38:18.980 now.

00:38:20.260 He made

00:38:20.660 it safer.

00:38:22.480 And he

00:38:22.960 also is

00:38:23.400 unambiguous

00:38:23.960 about it.

00:38:25.320 He's very

00:38:25.780 clear about

00:38:26.440 his opinion

00:38:27.060 on this.

00:38:27.860 Right by

00:38:28.260 his actions,

00:38:28.880 he's very

00:38:29.240 clear.

00:38:30.440 So I

00:38:32.400 think that

00:38:33.640 when Elon

00:38:34.200 Musk goes

00:38:34.740 in, it

00:38:35.180 influences

00:38:35.660 his

00:38:35.880 governments.

00:38:37.460 What do

00:38:37.960 you think?

00:38:38.340 I don't

00:38:39.700 think anybody

00:38:40.200 missed this

00:38:40.760 story.

00:38:41.940 I think it

00:38:42.860 influences

00:38:43.320 governments.

00:38:47.260 I heard

00:38:48.060 that there

00:38:49.100 was a

00:38:49.860 gas pipeline

00:38:51.140 that got

00:38:51.700 blown.

00:38:52.720 Now,

00:38:52.980 allegedly,

00:38:53.960 and again,

00:38:54.460 I'm very

00:38:54.820 skeptical about

00:38:55.600 this story

00:38:56.100 for obvious

00:38:56.720 reasons.

00:38:58.120 Apparently,

00:38:59.560 Ukraine is

00:39:00.500 saying that

00:39:00.920 Russia blew 0.88

00:39:01.500 up a gas

00:39:02.060 pipeline near

00:39:05.280 Kharkiv,

00:39:06.580 the second

00:39:07.760 largest

00:39:08.020 city.

00:39:09.620 Now,

00:39:10.120 I've been

00:39:10.660 asking why

00:39:12.280 the Ukrainians

00:39:13.180 don't threaten

00:39:14.280 to blow up

00:39:14.940 pipelines,

00:39:15.560 and people

00:39:15.880 kept saying,

00:39:16.540 no,

00:39:16.700 they're too

00:39:17.000 well protected.

00:39:19.200 But the

00:39:19.840 report is

00:39:20.480 that the

00:39:20.840 Russians did 1.00

00:39:21.500 it.

00:39:22.340 Now,

00:39:22.620 I don't

00:39:22.900 believe the

00:39:23.320 report in

00:39:23.920 part because

00:39:24.520 I don't

00:39:24.960 know why

00:39:25.320 they'd do

00:39:25.740 it,

00:39:26.620 because it

00:39:26.980 seems like

00:39:27.440 more something

00:39:28.500 Ukraine would 0.96

00:39:29.160 do.

00:39:30.600 I don't

00:39:30.900 know.

00:39:31.740 But I

00:39:33.800 guess the

00:39:34.160 question of

00:39:34.660 whether a

00:39:35.600 pipeline can

00:39:36.560 be blown up

00:39:37.300 may have

00:39:37.740 been answered.

00:39:38.720 So at

00:39:39.040 least this

00:39:39.380 one was.

00:39:40.320 Maybe.

00:39:41.180 Again,

00:39:41.720 don't believe

00:39:42.300 it.

00:39:44.580 Even

00:39:45.120 Switzerland is

00:39:46.020 starting to

00:39:46.740 have protests.

00:39:48.060 20,000 people

00:39:48.920 protested and

00:39:49.780 burned

00:39:50.120 Switzerland

00:39:50.600 because the

00:39:51.860 government

00:39:52.180 didn't put

00:39:53.040 sanctions on

00:39:53.880 Russia yet,

00:39:54.780 their banks.

00:39:56.820 Even

00:39:57.140 Switzerland is

00:39:59.860 not neutral,

00:40:00.840 at least the

00:40:01.520 citizens.

00:40:01.820 I think the

00:40:03.060 country is still

00:40:03.680 kind of neutral.

00:40:04.240 the citizens

00:40:05.700 are mad at

00:40:07.040 their own

00:40:07.380 country for

00:40:07.900 not being

00:40:08.280 neutral on

00:40:08.800 this one.

00:40:11.280 But here's

00:40:12.080 something even

00:40:12.840 more interesting.

00:40:16.040 Let's call

00:40:16.760 them money

00:40:17.360 Twitter.

00:40:18.160 The people

00:40:18.760 who know

00:40:19.260 the most

00:40:19.660 about finance

00:40:20.600 and also

00:40:21.920 have big

00:40:22.380 social media

00:40:23.180 followings

00:40:23.840 have also

00:40:25.680 entered the

00:40:26.280 fight.

00:40:28.100 And what

00:40:28.360 happens when

00:40:28.980 you see,

00:40:29.640 these names

00:40:30.460 might not be

00:40:31.020 as familiar

00:40:31.540 to you if

00:40:32.140 you don't

00:40:32.380 follow finance.

00:40:33.140 how many

00:40:33.920 of you

00:40:34.140 know Bill

00:40:34.680 Ackman? 0.97

00:40:36.180 Bill Ackman

00:40:37.200 had a giant

00:40:38.480 hedge fund.

00:40:39.960 So when he

00:40:40.360 talks, the

00:40:41.800 financial press

00:40:43.400 almost always

00:40:44.240 reports anything

00:40:44.980 he says.

00:40:45.940 So he's

00:40:46.340 important enough

00:40:47.220 that when he

00:40:48.800 talks about

00:40:49.460 anything financial,

00:40:50.900 it's in the

00:40:51.540 news.

00:40:53.820 And what he

00:40:54.840 tweeted today

00:40:55.480 was, I

00:40:56.600 wouldn't want

00:40:56.980 to keep money

00:40:57.560 in a bank

00:40:58.100 that can't

00:40:58.580 access the

00:40:59.260 SWIFT system.

00:41:00.440 Once a bank

00:41:01.180 can't transfer

00:41:02.060 or receive funds

00:41:02.940 from other

00:41:03.420 banks,

00:41:04.340 insolvency

00:41:05.020 can be a

00:41:05.580 risk.

00:41:06.380 If I were

00:41:06.940 Russian, I

00:41:07.880 would take my

00:41:08.420 money out

00:41:08.900 now.

00:41:09.780 Bank runs

00:41:10.360 could begin

00:41:10.900 in Russia

00:41:11.300 on Monday.

00:41:12.760 And then he

00:41:13.180 hashtagged

00:41:13.760 stand with

00:41:14.240 Ukraine.

00:41:15.260 Now, remember,

00:41:17.280 everybody's in

00:41:18.540 the fight.

00:41:20.000 So I

00:41:20.860 wouldn't say

00:41:21.560 that this

00:41:22.020 was Bill

00:41:22.660 Ackman being 1.00

00:41:23.460 completely

00:41:24.140 objective in

00:41:25.500 describing a

00:41:26.200 situation.

00:41:27.360 Although it

00:41:28.120 might be.

00:41:28.860 I mean,

00:41:29.220 objectively, I

00:41:30.100 don't think he's

00:41:30.700 wrong.

00:41:31.860 But the

00:41:32.520 reason for

00:41:33.180 it is

00:41:34.540 influence.

00:41:36.660 You're seeing

00:41:37.320 one of the

00:41:37.720 top guys in

00:41:38.360 finance directly

00:41:39.860 try to take

00:41:40.560 down the

00:41:40.940 Russian economy.

00:41:42.220 Because if he

00:41:43.040 says it's going

00:41:43.720 down and you

00:41:44.440 should get your

00:41:44.920 money out of

00:41:45.380 the bank, you

00:41:46.920 should frickin'

00:41:47.460 listen to that.

00:41:48.820 Let me put it

00:41:49.480 this way.

00:41:50.560 If Bill

00:41:51.080 Ackman told

00:41:51.800 me to get my

00:41:53.580 money out of

00:41:54.040 my bank, I'd

00:41:55.540 be in my car.

00:41:56.320 Now, of

00:41:58.840 course, you

00:41:59.540 have to assume

00:42:00.080 also this is an

00:42:01.240 influence operation,

00:42:02.220 right?

00:42:04.340 Here's something

00:42:05.140 that Naval said

00:42:06.060 today.

00:42:07.300 Anybody who's in

00:42:08.300 the investing

00:42:08.900 community in the

00:42:09.840 United States will

00:42:10.720 recognize Naval.

00:42:12.360 He said, he

00:42:13.320 tweeted,

00:42:13.960 Ukrainian forces

00:42:14.780 benefiting from

00:42:15.700 higher morale,

00:42:17.320 superior intelligence

00:42:18.420 via NATO,

00:42:20.300 and a quick and

00:42:21.260 positive social

00:42:22.080 media cycle.

00:42:24.080 And then he

00:42:24.840 goes on,

00:42:25.240 Russia has 0.96

00:42:25.720 already lost

00:42:26.360 the media

00:42:26.900 war and

00:42:27.580 the economic

00:42:28.220 war, may

00:42:29.600 lose the

00:42:30.120 physical war

00:42:30.860 too.

00:42:32.620 Do you know

00:42:33.240 what happens

00:42:33.800 when Naval

00:42:34.560 tells you you

00:42:35.400 just lost an

00:42:36.160 economic war?

00:42:38.480 Again, you

00:42:39.820 might not be

00:42:40.600 familiar with

00:42:41.140 Naval, and you

00:42:42.060 might not be

00:42:42.580 familiar with

00:42:43.140 Bill Ackman,

00:42:44.700 but the people

00:42:46.060 who move large

00:42:46.940 amounts of money

00:42:47.620 sure know

00:42:48.060 them.

00:42:49.780 They know

00:42:50.500 them.

00:42:51.840 And the

00:42:52.260 people who

00:42:52.660 move large

00:42:53.220 amounts of

00:42:53.660 money, if

00:42:54.800 they hear

00:42:55.380 Naval say

00:42:56.220 that Russia 0.72

00:42:57.240 already lost

00:42:58.060 the economic

00:42:58.740 war, and

00:42:59.720 they hear

00:43:00.060 Bill Ackman

00:43:00.640 say, you

00:43:01.060 better get

00:43:01.420 your money

00:43:01.760 out of the

00:43:02.080 bank today

00:43:02.700 in Russia,

00:43:04.840 I'll bet

00:43:08.020 they're not

00:43:08.540 the only

00:43:08.960 people saying

00:43:09.560 this.

00:43:10.680 I'm saying

00:43:11.240 it.

00:43:12.500 So you're

00:43:13.400 seeing social

00:43:14.060 media form

00:43:16.260 a propaganda,

00:43:19.480 propaganda, a

00:43:20.160 propaganda

00:43:20.880 offensive weapon

00:43:22.740 that is in

00:43:25.040 all likelihood

00:43:25.680 going to

00:43:26.060 take down

00:43:26.440 the Russian

00:43:26.840 economy on

00:43:27.520 Monday.

00:43:29.400 And many

00:43:30.460 of these are

00:43:30.940 civilians,

00:43:32.740 the people I

00:43:33.360 just mentioned,

00:43:34.460 civilians.

00:43:35.800 But social

00:43:36.680 media gives

00:43:37.280 civilians

00:43:37.800 gigantic

00:43:38.740 influence if

00:43:41.360 the topic

00:43:41.980 fits those

00:43:42.960 civilians.

00:43:44.020 Now,

00:43:44.260 civilians,

00:43:45.440 in this case,

00:43:47.060 the people who

00:43:47.600 know the

00:43:47.880 most about

00:43:48.340 economics and

00:43:49.240 finance and

00:43:49.920 the likely

00:43:51.280 direction of

00:43:52.020 business,

00:43:53.080 some of the

00:43:53.620 smartest ones

00:43:54.280 in the

00:43:54.520 business just

00:43:55.220 told you

00:43:55.780 Russia's in 1.00

00:43:56.660 trouble on

00:43:57.120 Monday.

00:43:58.640 Have I ever

00:43:59.440 told you that

00:44:00.040 economies are

00:44:01.160 mostly psychological

00:44:02.440 engines?

00:44:08.620 Here's a good

00:44:09.380 comment.

00:44:11.200 So let me

00:44:12.160 say my point.

00:44:13.340 So economies

00:44:14.160 are psychological

00:44:14.920 engines, and so

00:44:15.840 they can be

00:44:16.340 taken down by

00:44:17.120 psychology.

00:44:18.680 So a

00:44:19.560 waking bear

00:44:20.300 says this,

00:44:21.440 Scott, you're

00:44:22.060 acting like all

00:44:22.780 these things

00:44:23.340 you're describing

00:44:24.360 were not fully

00:44:25.760 expected by

00:44:26.560 Russia.

00:44:27.940 No, I'm not

00:44:28.620 acting like it.

00:44:30.360 I'm pretty

00:44:31.080 sure that they

00:44:33.060 didn't expect

00:44:33.760 all of it.

00:44:35.960 I believe that

00:44:37.440 they expected

00:44:38.140 a lot of it,

00:44:40.320 and I think

00:44:41.000 that their

00:44:41.660 expectations have

00:44:42.780 now been

00:44:43.180 exceeded.

00:44:44.480 I believe that

00:44:45.360 the financial

00:44:46.480 impact will

00:44:47.220 be almost

00:44:49.160 certainly,

00:44:50.300 almost certainly

00:44:51.200 more than they

00:44:52.080 could have

00:44:52.400 anticipated.

00:44:54.000 Now, we're in

00:44:54.760 the fog of war,

00:44:55.780 as the comments

00:44:56.880 are reminding me.

00:44:57.820 Remember, you

00:44:58.320 have to keep me

00:44:58.960 honest, too,

00:44:59.620 right?

00:45:00.300 As many times as I

00:45:01.720 remind you not to

00:45:02.580 believe anything

00:45:03.160 about this

00:45:04.920 situation,

00:45:06.220 keep reminding me,

00:45:08.040 too, right?

00:45:08.920 Every time I say

00:45:09.740 something with some

00:45:10.460 certainty, feel free

00:45:12.840 in the comments to

00:45:13.740 say, but fog of

00:45:14.960 war, because

00:45:16.100 that's always the

00:45:16.680 right thing to

00:45:17.120 say.

00:45:18.760 However, it's

00:45:20.880 not my

00:45:21.340 imagination that

00:45:22.700 people who know

00:45:23.560 what they're talking

00:45:24.180 about in the

00:45:24.740 financial world are

00:45:26.560 persuading against

00:45:28.100 Russia's economy.

00:45:29.560 I'm not imagining

00:45:30.580 that.

00:45:31.580 And I'm not

00:45:32.100 imagining that the

00:45:32.960 economy is built on

00:45:34.120 psychology.

00:45:35.340 That's not

00:45:35.920 imagination.

00:45:37.320 And I'm not

00:45:37.920 imagining that the

00:45:38.940 entire world,

00:45:41.840 minus China 0.96

00:45:42.780 sending it out,

00:45:44.540 seems to be

00:45:45.520 against Russia at

00:45:46.420 this point.

00:45:48.060 I'm not, you

00:45:49.500 know, I'm looking

00:45:50.240 at things that you

00:45:51.360 agree with.

00:45:52.680 This is really,

00:45:53.980 really dangerous for

00:45:54.780 Russia.

00:45:55.760 Really dangerous.

00:45:57.220 And I don't know

00:45:58.360 that Putin could

00:45:59.040 have ever imagined

00:45:59.800 it would go this

00:46:00.480 far.

00:46:02.520 I'm surprised.

00:46:03.660 Are you?

00:46:05.080 So, no, I think

00:46:06.720 it's also fair to

00:46:07.560 say that when

00:46:08.860 the top financial

00:46:10.220 experts seem

00:46:11.240 fairly unified at

00:46:12.320 this point in

00:46:13.440 saying that the

00:46:14.260 sanctions, by the

00:46:16.520 way, it was only

00:46:16.980 24 hours ago that

00:46:18.060 we said the

00:46:18.560 sanctions were

00:46:19.180 toothless, right?

00:46:22.020 Give me a fact

00:46:22.960 check on this.

00:46:24.320 One day ago,

00:46:25.940 common knowledge

00:46:26.720 was the sanctions

00:46:28.020 were toothless.

00:46:30.000 Today, again,

00:46:30.980 fact check me,

00:46:32.320 today people are

00:46:33.220 asking on social

00:46:34.100 media what

00:46:36.040 happens if

00:46:36.840 Russia falls 0.72

00:46:38.140 this week

00:46:39.180 financially and

00:46:40.980 maybe politically

00:46:41.640 and the nukes

00:46:43.440 are not secured.

00:46:45.620 In one day,

00:46:47.520 we went from

00:46:48.500 saying the

00:46:50.800 sanctions were

00:46:51.560 toothless to

00:46:52.980 saying it could

00:46:53.660 bring down Russia 0.99

00:46:54.560 in a week.

00:46:59.280 Fact check me,

00:47:00.280 that really

00:47:00.620 happened, right?

00:47:02.260 Now, it's not

00:47:03.260 just Swift because

00:47:04.960 there was also

00:47:06.180 was it the

00:47:09.920 who was it?

00:47:11.240 The head of the

00:47:14.040 economic, head of

00:47:15.720 the EU, whatever.

00:47:18.040 Apparently, even

00:47:19.040 their entire banking

00:47:21.280 system in Russia is

00:47:22.400 just going to be

00:47:22.900 crashed by

00:47:25.100 international action.

00:47:26.800 So it's not

00:47:29.660 just Swift, but

00:47:30.760 Swift is bad

00:47:31.420 enough.

00:47:31.780 Even though

00:47:32.380 Swift carved

00:47:33.620 down some of

00:47:34.220 the energy

00:47:34.620 things, it

00:47:35.840 looks like the

00:47:37.140 other financial

00:47:38.060 and banking

00:47:38.700 restrictions are

00:47:40.020 just going to

00:47:40.420 close down the

00:47:41.040 country.

00:47:41.820 Now, what

00:47:43.260 should you be

00:47:43.800 saying to me

00:47:44.380 right now?

00:47:46.360 Bullshit.

00:47:47.520 Right?

00:47:48.740 So what you

00:47:49.500 should be saying

00:47:50.140 is, Scott, you

00:47:51.560 don't know if

00:47:52.120 these sanctions

00:47:52.800 are really going

00:47:53.480 to be that

00:47:53.900 strong because

00:47:54.540 there's always

00:47:55.820 a workaround

00:47:56.820 and they've

00:47:58.200 got some

00:47:58.640 reserves and

00:48:00.740 hey, they

00:48:01.700 anticipated it.

00:48:04.100 Nobody can

00:48:04.920 anticipate what

00:48:05.700 happens when the

00:48:06.440 first bullets fly.

00:48:08.580 Nobody can.

00:48:10.260 You know what

00:48:11.100 is the safest

00:48:11.800 prediction about

00:48:12.780 anything involving

00:48:13.740 a war?

00:48:15.040 Is you don't

00:48:15.500 know what's

00:48:15.820 going to happen.

00:48:17.040 That's the

00:48:17.480 safest prediction.

00:48:19.460 So the

00:48:21.540 financial markets

00:48:22.280 don't like

00:48:22.720 uncertainty.

00:48:23.680 So they're

00:48:24.100 definitely not

00:48:24.720 going to

00:48:24.940 like Monday.

00:48:27.980 So here's

00:48:28.720 what I would

00:48:29.080 be looking

00:48:29.420 for.

00:48:30.100 I would be

00:48:30.600 looking for

00:48:31.420 other people

00:48:33.880 who are

00:48:34.620 financially

00:48:35.640 astute and

00:48:37.120 have a high

00:48:37.640 profile to

00:48:39.040 tell you that

00:48:39.640 Russia's economy

00:48:40.480 is in trouble

00:48:41.100 on Monday.

00:48:43.540 That's your

00:48:44.140 assignment for

00:48:44.840 today, is to

00:48:46.300 see how much

00:48:46.860 of the, let's

00:48:48.480 say, classic

00:48:49.860 media, or

00:48:51.360 even social

00:48:52.120 media, let's

00:48:52.960 see how many

00:48:53.500 of them weigh

00:48:54.280 in.

00:48:55.440 How many

00:48:55.960 times will

00:48:56.480 CNN have

00:48:57.200 somebody on

00:48:57.840 who says,

00:48:58.340 you know,

00:48:59.340 these financial

00:49:00.060 sanctions really

00:49:00.940 are going to

00:49:01.380 take down

00:49:01.760 Russia? 0.61

00:49:03.800 Because even

00:49:05.240 our news

00:49:06.720 business, they're

00:49:07.660 in the war.

00:49:10.200 Do you know

00:49:10.960 how often I

00:49:11.540 criticize CNN

00:49:12.420 for, you

00:49:14.260 know, bullshit

00:49:14.720 propaganda?

00:49:16.400 Like, basically

00:49:17.580 every day?

00:49:18.500 But not

00:49:20.560 right now.

00:49:22.140 I will, I'm

00:49:23.300 going to put a

00:49:23.840 total moratorium

00:49:24.780 on criticizing

00:49:26.660 CNN or

00:49:27.640 MSNBC about

00:49:29.620 Ukraine, so 0.57

00:49:31.340 long as their

00:49:33.400 bullshit is in

00:49:34.280 the right

00:49:34.560 direction.

00:49:36.600 Because I think

00:49:37.660 you're going to

00:49:37.980 see CNN pretty

00:49:40.440 activated by

00:49:41.720 whoever controls

00:49:42.700 CNN these days.

00:49:43.640 who knows

00:49:44.380 whether that's

00:49:45.820 our intelligence

00:49:46.820 agencies or the

00:49:47.960 Democrats or

00:49:48.600 whoever.

00:49:49.420 But they're all

00:49:50.000 on the same

00:49:50.340 side on this,

00:49:52.640 which is CNN

00:49:53.600 wants Russia to 0.85

00:49:55.740 not succeed in

00:49:56.660 Ukraine.

00:49:57.160 Wouldn't you

00:49:57.460 agree?

00:49:57.700 Wouldn't it be

00:49:59.840 fair to say that

00:50:00.560 nobody at CNN

00:50:01.980 is unbiased

00:50:05.280 about Ukraine?

00:50:07.520 Nobody.

00:50:08.160 Nobody on Fox

00:50:09.060 News, that's

00:50:09.800 maybe more

00:50:10.440 obvious to you,

00:50:11.120 right?

00:50:11.940 But Fox News

00:50:12.920 and CNN are

00:50:14.100 on the same

00:50:14.760 side, which

00:50:16.220 is on my

00:50:16.720 side.

00:50:18.920 And I think

00:50:19.740 your side,

00:50:20.340 too, which

00:50:21.860 is we don't

00:50:22.560 want Russia to 0.84

00:50:23.420 succeed in

00:50:24.060 Ukraine.

00:50:25.280 So this

00:50:27.720 might be the

00:50:28.340 only week in

00:50:29.280 which at least

00:50:29.900 I may look at

00:50:31.040 the other

00:50:31.360 coverage that

00:50:32.000 they do on

00:50:32.480 other topics.

00:50:33.640 But if CNN

00:50:34.860 tells you that

00:50:35.920 Ukraine is

00:50:37.980 winning,

00:50:39.060 I'm just

00:50:40.240 going to let

00:50:40.620 that go.

00:50:42.260 I'm going to

00:50:42.760 let it go.

00:50:44.040 Just in your

00:50:45.060 mind, you might

00:50:45.680 want to play a

00:50:46.220 little recording

00:50:46.820 that says,

00:50:47.280 you know, under

00:50:47.960 normal times,

00:50:48.800 he would tell

00:50:49.220 us that was

00:50:49.640 bullshit, and 0.68

00:50:50.940 I would.

00:50:52.120 These are not

00:50:52.600 normal times.

00:50:54.320 We're at war.

00:50:56.000 And if CNN

00:50:57.620 is making

00:50:58.380 Russia's economy

00:51:00.480 look shaky

00:51:01.280 because of the

00:51:02.100 way they're

00:51:03.040 framing the

00:51:03.840 news, good

00:51:05.240 for you.

00:51:06.360 We're on the

00:51:07.020 same side on

00:51:07.660 this.

00:51:09.060 And if you

00:51:11.040 don't think

00:51:11.620 that public

00:51:12.540 opinion is

00:51:15.020 what will

00:51:15.480 change the

00:51:16.040 course of the

00:51:16.560 war, I

00:51:16.980 think you're

00:51:17.380 wrong.

00:51:18.860 How many

00:51:19.340 people would

00:51:19.780 disagree with

00:51:20.240 that?

00:51:20.420 So here's

00:51:20.760 my assertion.

00:51:24.020 my assertion is

00:51:26.720 that as long

00:51:29.260 as the

00:51:29.720 Ukrainians can

00:51:30.720 hold off the

00:51:31.800 Russians from

00:51:32.420 a quick

00:51:33.400 victory, as

00:51:35.180 long as that's

00:51:35.740 a tie, and

00:51:36.660 it looks like

00:51:37.200 it might be,

00:51:38.780 can't say that

00:51:39.400 for sure, but

00:51:40.900 it looks like it

00:51:41.380 might be a tie

00:51:42.040 for a while, as

00:51:43.680 long as that's a

00:51:44.340 tie, the economy

00:51:46.220 is the war.

00:51:48.940 Would you agree

00:51:49.840 with that part of

00:51:50.880 the reason?

00:51:51.560 As long as the

00:51:52.300 military is locked

00:51:53.980 up, however long

00:51:55.160 that takes, the

00:51:56.420 economy is where

00:51:57.240 the real war is.

00:51:59.060 And Russia can't 0.72

00:52:00.040 win the economic

00:52:00.760 war.

00:52:02.540 They can't in the

00:52:03.480 long run.

00:52:03.840 So if you're

00:52:06.320 going to predict

00:52:07.240 where this goes,

00:52:08.880 it all depends on

00:52:10.120 probably Ukraine

00:52:12.320 holding for another

00:52:13.500 few days.

00:52:15.420 At which point,

00:52:17.760 I don't know how

00:52:18.980 many days it would

00:52:19.500 take, but there is

00:52:20.740 a point at which

00:52:22.080 the Russian

00:52:23.520 oligarchs and

00:52:24.520 the people behind

00:52:26.300 Putin are going

00:52:27.140 to accept the

00:52:28.860 path out that

00:52:30.560 we've given them.

00:52:32.080 And when I say

00:52:32.740 we, I'm not

00:52:33.820 I mean, probably

00:52:35.020 the CIA, and

00:52:38.400 me, and

00:52:40.000 Marco Rubio, and

00:52:41.940 anybody else who's

00:52:42.880 saying in any

00:52:43.760 public way,

00:52:45.080 something different

00:52:45.780 about Putin.

00:52:47.420 Wait a minute,

00:52:48.140 this isn't really

00:52:48.780 about Russia, is

00:52:49.660 it?

00:52:50.260 This is about

00:52:51.040 Putin.

00:52:52.020 Do you realize

00:52:52.760 that that gives the

00:52:53.500 Russian people a 0.98

00:52:55.660 way out?

00:52:57.400 Is that an

00:52:58.180 accident?

00:52:59.280 I don't think it's

00:52:59.900 an accident.

00:53:01.400 That the way out

00:53:02.420 is for Russia to 0.95

00:53:03.460 say, whoa, whoa,

00:53:04.000 whoa, whoa, this

00:53:04.420 was never Russia 0.76

00:53:05.200 against Ukraine.

00:53:06.700 This was always

00:53:07.560 something about

00:53:08.180 Putin.

00:53:09.000 He changed.

00:53:11.480 We're going to

00:53:12.180 accept your

00:53:12.820 explanation that

00:53:14.040 something about him

00:53:14.820 snapped, and we're

00:53:16.340 going to get rid of

00:53:16.940 them ourselves, because

00:53:18.380 now we just have to.

00:53:20.040 Now, here's the

00:53:20.980 question.

00:53:21.960 How hard would it

00:53:22.900 be for Russia under 0.87

00:53:25.800 any amount of

00:53:26.560 pressure to depose

00:53:27.960 Putin?

00:53:29.500 Like, I assume he's

00:53:30.640 got a pretty good

00:53:31.640 grip on things at

00:53:32.620 this point.

00:53:34.160 Well, it probably

00:53:35.940 depends how crazy he

00:53:37.060 looks to his own 0.66

00:53:38.020 people, don't you

00:53:38.740 think?

00:53:39.700 And they may be

00:53:40.560 seeing a version of

00:53:41.600 him that looks even

00:53:42.320 crazier than what

00:53:43.280 we're told.

00:53:44.880 It's also possible he's

00:53:46.540 perfectly sane, and

00:53:49.280 that everything we're

00:53:50.100 hearing is fake.

00:53:51.600 Perfectly possible.

00:53:52.440 And that's what, you

00:53:55.860 know, Mike Cernovich

00:53:57.260 should be reminding

00:53:58.440 you once an hour

00:53:59.540 today.

00:54:02.060 All right.

00:54:06.420 All right, I saw

00:54:07.280 a terrible comment on

00:54:08.320 locals, but I'm not

00:54:09.220 going to say it.

00:54:11.180 So, social media is

00:54:13.480 weaponized.

00:54:14.160 Here's another thing

00:54:14.840 that I think Mike

00:54:16.240 Cernovich said in a

00:54:17.260 tweet, and boy, does

00:54:18.980 it look like this.

00:54:20.680 It's something I've

00:54:21.560 said before as well.

00:54:22.440 That we're so primed

00:54:25.280 by movies and fiction

00:54:27.700 that we see real-life

00:54:30.000 events in three-part

00:54:33.220 movies, you know, a

00:54:34.660 movie with three acts.

00:54:37.980 Tell me that Zelensky

00:54:40.200 with his famous, I

00:54:43.360 don't need transportation,

00:54:44.660 I need ammo, and then

00:54:47.600 going in to lead his

00:54:49.560 people, tell me there's

00:54:52.340 ever been a better

00:54:53.160 third act, like in a

00:54:55.720 movie.

00:54:56.760 Because imagine, if you

00:54:58.280 will, that things go

00:55:00.120 Zelensky's way.

00:55:01.100 Let's say he survives,

00:55:02.540 very much in doubt at the

00:55:04.140 moment, but let's say he

00:55:05.280 does, and Russia falls, 0.66

00:55:09.260 or at least, you know,

00:55:10.140 Putin can't hold power

00:55:11.200 because it's, he just

00:55:13.100 went too far.

00:55:14.000 This would be a perfect

00:55:19.200 movie, three-act movie.

00:55:22.720 So Zelensky is right in

00:55:24.180 the middle of the third

00:55:24.960 act in which it looks

00:55:26.800 impossible, impossible

00:55:28.760 that he could win.

00:55:31.780 But imagine the movie

00:55:32.980 script where, you know,

00:55:34.680 they're in the bunker and,

00:55:36.000 you know, the Russian army

00:55:37.360 is closing in and

00:55:39.560 communications are falling

00:55:41.120 and it's all falling

00:55:42.180 apart.

00:55:43.100 And then he starts

00:55:43.900 getting good news, like

00:55:45.980 a shipment of, you know,

00:55:47.700 anti-tank missiles just

00:55:49.080 arrived, and then Elon

00:55:51.400 Musk puts up Starlink.

00:55:54.120 I mean, this is a perfect

00:55:55.260 movie script.

00:55:56.720 I don't mean to make light

00:55:57.980 of it.

00:55:58.880 What I'm pointing out,

00:56:01.000 the same thing that

00:56:01.860 Cernovich pointed out, is

00:56:03.560 that our brains are just

00:56:04.560 primed to see things as a

00:56:06.620 three-act movie.

00:56:07.400 And we're seeing this as

00:56:09.920 the third act.

00:56:11.140 And here's the, here's

00:56:12.820 why this matters.

00:56:14.040 This isn't, this isn't

00:56:15.100 trivial.

00:56:16.680 This is why this matters.

00:56:18.880 If you see it as a

00:56:20.440 three-act movie, your

00:56:22.900 psychology will get into

00:56:24.760 that pattern just

00:56:27.080 automatically.

00:56:28.400 And the three-act movie is

00:56:30.040 telling us that Zelensky

00:56:31.180 wins.

00:56:32.980 That doesn't mean it

00:56:35.420 makes sense.

00:56:36.100 That's what the movie's

00:56:37.980 telling us.

00:56:39.200 The three-act movie has

00:56:40.680 already been activated in

00:56:41.980 our mind to tell us that

00:56:43.800 Zelensky wins, and not

00:56:45.100 only does he win, but he

00:56:46.400 takes Putin down, because

00:56:47.700 that's the best movie.

00:56:50.240 Right?

00:56:50.720 Now, what happens when

00:56:51.760 everybody expects something

00:56:53.000 to happen?

00:56:54.340 Not everybody, but let's

00:56:56.040 say a majority of people

00:56:57.120 expect something to

00:56:58.280 happen.

00:56:59.020 They end up making it

00:57:00.320 happen.

00:57:01.480 It becomes self-fulfilling.

00:57:03.900 Because this goes to the

00:57:05.440 morale of the Russian 0.97

00:57:07.020 soldiers, it goes to the

00:57:08.660 morale of the Ukrainians, it 1.00

00:57:10.320 goes to does Elon Musk get

00:57:13.180 involved, it goes to do the

00:57:15.140 Europeans get tough, it goes

00:57:17.120 to do we ever let Russia 0.97

00:57:19.280 blackmail Europe again, it goes 0.90

00:57:22.380 to all of that.

00:57:22.960 The cleverest thing I saw, again,

00:57:30.380 who knows if this is true, so

00:57:32.100 this is another report, put your

00:57:33.980 skeptic hat on, but the report

00:57:35.900 was that the Russian conscripts,

00:57:40.540 you know, 19-year-old soldiers are

00:57:42.440 just confused and surrendering in

00:57:44.340 mass.

00:57:45.420 Now, that's exactly the kind of

00:57:46.900 story that is unlikely to be true.

00:57:48.620 It could be, but when you hear

00:57:52.340 one side, especially the side that

00:57:54.420 has the smaller military force,

00:57:56.460 saying that the one with the big

00:57:57.720 military force are surrendering in

00:57:59.500 mass, probably not, maybe not

00:58:04.700 yet, but maybe in some cases.

00:58:07.380 Now, here's the good story.

00:58:10.200 The good story is that the

00:58:11.940 Ukrainians let the captured Russian

00:58:15.300 soldiers, the 19-year-olds, phone

00:58:18.200 their mothers.

00:58:21.500 Just think about that.

00:58:23.240 And then that report was in the

00:58:24.880 news.

00:58:26.520 They gave them phones and told

00:58:30.120 them to phone their mothers.

00:58:32.300 Now, I don't know much about

00:58:34.100 Russian culture, so maybe somebody

00:58:39.060 can help me out here.

00:58:39.940 There are cultures in which, if the

00:58:44.960 grandmothers and the mothers get

00:58:46.420 involved, that's just the way things

00:58:48.780 are going to go.

00:58:50.160 Now, I've been told by somebody in

00:58:54.200 the black American culture that we

00:58:57.520 always forget how powerful the

00:58:59.800 grandmothers are, you know, the 0.92

00:59:01.620 mothers and grandmothers, and that

00:59:03.220 they're actually, you know, the lever

00:59:05.440 that moves everything if you let them.

00:59:07.220 And I wonder if this, if this

00:59:10.980 approach of getting the mothers in 0.99

00:59:13.020 Russia involved might be kind of

00:59:16.320 brilliant.

00:59:18.000 Imagine if every captured soldier is

00:59:21.440 allowed to call home, because do you

00:59:23.560 know what the mother's reaction was

00:59:25.460 when they got a call from their

00:59:26.960 captured son?

00:59:28.840 The mother's reaction was they didn't

00:59:31.000 know that they were there, or why.

00:59:33.660 They just found out.

00:59:35.620 Do you think word is going to get

00:59:36.780 around?

00:59:38.040 Yeah.

00:59:39.520 Yeah.

00:59:40.240 Now, again, this could be another,

00:59:41.860 you know, psy-op and propaganda, and

00:59:44.600 maybe there were no Russian soldiers

00:59:46.680 that ever got captured and allowed to

00:59:48.740 call home.

00:59:49.620 But why not?

00:59:51.660 I mean, I'm sure they're

00:59:52.460 capturing some.

00:59:53.920 I would let them all call home.

00:59:57.120 Wouldn't you?

00:59:58.460 It seems pretty smart, psychologically.

01:00:02.920 Because I don't think the Russian 0.99

01:00:04.160 public is up for killing people who

01:00:06.040 look like Russians and talk like 1.00

01:00:07.420 Russians.

01:00:08.640 I just, I feel like the Russian army

01:00:11.180 has got the morale problem of all

01:00:13.800 morale problems.

01:00:15.040 And we're probably a day away from

01:00:18.000 Ukraine successfully cutting their 0.97

01:00:20.540 supply lines.

01:00:23.420 By Wednesday, there's a good chance

01:00:26.560 that the Russian supply lines are toast.

01:00:29.080 And their economy is in a death spiral.

01:00:33.760 That's totally possible by Wednesday.

01:00:36.880 And again, 24 hours ago, everything

01:00:40.540 looked completely opposite.

01:00:43.140 So what is the likelihood that I can

01:00:45.560 predict what will happen on Wednesday?

01:00:47.680 Anybody?

01:00:49.540 Anybody?

01:00:50.100 Do you want to, do you want to maybe

01:00:52.440 take me down a peg because I deserve it?

01:00:55.820 Right?

01:00:57.640 Nobody can predict this.

01:00:59.820 Nobody.

01:01:00.640 If it sounded like I was confident of what

01:01:02.840 was going to happen on Wednesday in Ukraine,

01:01:05.040 there should have been a recording playing

01:01:06.600 in your head that says, well, he sounds

01:01:08.700 confident, but nobody can predict this.

01:01:12.020 Nobody can predict this.

01:01:13.780 No way to know.

01:01:14.500 The only thing I think I'm going to be

01:01:17.020 right about, well, let me ask you.

01:01:21.480 It's too early to know, so I'm not going

01:01:23.700 to claim being right.

01:01:25.440 But I think I will be.

01:01:27.740 And that claim is that the Russian army

01:01:29.920 didn't, they didn't estimate properly

01:01:32.880 how effective the weapons would be that

01:01:36.680 the Ukrainians had access to.

01:01:39.680 So I think that part I'm going to be

01:01:41.560 right about.

01:01:42.020 And I don't know anybody else who said

01:01:44.700 that, that they would be surprised by

01:01:47.300 the, you know, the modern weaponry

01:01:50.260 that was put against them.

01:01:56.360 The U.S. intel community blew it again.

01:01:58.880 I don't know.

01:01:59.880 Did they?

01:02:04.240 But will it matter in the end?

01:02:05.720 We don't know.

01:02:06.660 That's what maybe we'll know on Wednesday.

01:02:08.780 Did U.S. intel cause this?

01:02:15.920 Depends what you mean by causing.

01:02:24.300 Now here's a question.

01:02:26.460 What percentage of all of Russia's

01:02:29.300 complete military capability for the

01:02:32.400 entire country is employed in Ukraine

01:02:35.300 or, or let's say, bogged down.

01:02:38.840 Have you seen that?

01:02:40.080 I've seen estimates of how much

01:02:41.800 percentage of the arms he put in the

01:02:46.260 theater.

01:02:50.120 Two-thirds?

01:02:51.480 Now, I think two-thirds is how much

01:02:53.460 has been deployed from nearby.

01:02:56.300 You know, the stuff that was in that

01:02:58.920 theater.

01:03:00.200 But it's not, it's,

01:03:03.260 somebody's saying 25%, that's what I'm

01:03:05.120 saying most.

01:03:05.680 So maybe 25% of his military force.

01:03:10.480 Okay.

01:03:11.880 Well, he's got a lot of military.

01:03:14.280 I think it's closer to 50, don't you?

01:03:18.040 Do you think they put,

01:03:19.500 here's what I think.

01:03:21.880 There's no way to know this,

01:03:23.100 and I'm just totally talking

01:03:25.160 through my ass right now. 0.98

01:03:26.780 But, so I'm going to take this

01:03:27.860 purely from the perspective of

01:03:29.780 somebody who's got

01:03:30.760 experience in large organizations.

01:03:34.840 Okay.

01:03:35.340 So knowing, knowing nothing about the

01:03:37.080 military

01:03:37.540 and not trusting any information

01:03:40.900 coming out of there.

01:03:41.780 I'm going to say something that I

01:03:42.960 think would be generally true,

01:03:45.540 generally true,

01:03:47.520 that the 80-20 rule

01:03:49.320 applies pretty much everywhere to

01:03:52.720 everything.

01:03:53.980 Right.

01:03:54.180 There are exceptions, of course.

01:03:55.640 But I don't think this is one.

01:03:57.280 And here's where this applies.

01:03:59.280 My bet

01:03:59.960 is that if you looked at all of the

01:04:02.400 military equipment that Russia has,

01:04:05.340 that 20% of it is really good stuff.

01:04:08.880 And 80% of it,

01:04:10.440 maybe not so good.

01:04:11.420 How many would agree with me so far?

01:04:15.560 And that wouldn't even be necessarily

01:04:17.520 a statement about Russia.

01:04:20.100 It would be a statement about any

01:04:21.540 large organization.

01:04:23.700 20%

01:04:24.700 really good stuff,

01:04:26.240 80% bad.

01:04:27.160 Now,

01:04:28.660 given the importance of this battle,

01:04:31.640 do you think

01:04:32.180 Putin put

01:04:33.220 his,

01:04:34.960 just a general

01:04:35.960 average

01:04:36.780 equipment in the field,

01:04:38.680 or did he put his good stuff there?

01:04:41.240 Like,

01:04:41.820 as much as he could get there.

01:04:44.600 What do you think?

01:04:46.440 I'm seeing some people say average.

01:04:48.060 Do you think that he would do that

01:04:50.660 because he would save some good stuff

01:04:52.400 for,

01:04:53.200 in case,

01:04:53.600 China attacks on his other border?

01:04:56.240 He had literally no other use

01:04:58.420 for the good stuff.

01:04:59.740 Am I wrong?

01:05:01.720 He's not defending any other place.

01:05:04.760 He could put

01:05:05.640 all of his good stuff

01:05:07.300 in Ukraine.

01:05:10.140 So,

01:05:10.940 here's what I think.

01:05:12.820 And this is just based on

01:05:14.020 knowledge of big organizations,

01:05:16.140 and how they lie

01:05:17.220 and how they do things.

01:05:19.240 I think that

01:05:20.120 if you think

01:05:20.920 20% of his military might

01:05:24.320 is dedicated to Ukraine,

01:05:27.320 that that's what it looks like

01:05:28.440 on paper.

01:05:28.940 But that

01:05:31.040 it's probably closer to

01:05:33.080 70% of his capability.

01:05:36.600 Because it's all of his good stuff.

01:05:38.800 Did he send the bad general?

01:05:40.640 Or did he send his best general?

01:05:43.060 Did he send his bad special forces?

01:05:46.140 Or the best ones?

01:05:48.180 Right?

01:05:48.640 Is he using the

01:05:49.900 dumbest missiles? 0.57

01:05:51.160 Or is he using

01:05:52.120 all of his good ones?

01:05:54.500 Because I even saw

01:05:55.580 somebody suggest

01:05:56.360 he'd run out of missiles.

01:05:58.140 What?

01:05:59.100 Is that possible?

01:06:00.880 Can Russia

01:06:01.520 run out of missiles?

01:06:03.360 I mean,

01:06:03.700 the good ones.

01:06:04.720 Could they run out of missiles

01:06:05.860 by, like,

01:06:06.700 in a week?

01:06:08.000 Some experts said that.

01:06:09.260 That didn't sound possible to me,

01:06:10.760 but maybe?

01:06:12.960 I don't know.

01:06:14.100 So,

01:06:15.660 knowing that everything

01:06:16.640 about everything

01:06:17.240 is a lie,

01:06:18.280 knowing what you know

01:06:19.120 about big organizations,

01:06:21.820 how many are willing

01:06:22.860 to side with me

01:06:23.820 on the fact

01:06:24.560 that if it looks like

01:06:25.700 Russia put 25% 0.91

01:06:27.400 of its military there,

01:06:28.980 it's probably closer

01:06:30.260 to 75%

01:06:31.900 or something

01:06:32.720 in that neighborhood

01:06:33.580 of their abilities?

01:06:35.000 I'm getting some yeses.

01:06:40.600 Right?

01:06:40.780 Because that would be

01:06:41.420 consistent with

01:06:42.160 everything you know

01:06:42.880 about everything.

01:06:44.020 Am I wrong?

01:06:45.900 Like,

01:06:46.960 unless,

01:06:48.500 I think it's true,

01:06:50.240 unless everything

01:06:51.140 we know about everything

01:06:51.940 is wrong.

01:06:53.600 Because everything

01:06:54.380 you know about everything

01:06:55.280 suggests

01:06:55.840 they put their

01:06:57.060 good stuff there.

01:07:02.720 I don't know.

01:07:03.460 I would worry about

01:07:04.140 the fact that he's

01:07:04.880 activated his nukes,

01:07:06.780 or at least his

01:07:07.780 nuclear force,

01:07:08.800 not the nukes itself.

01:07:10.500 So that,

01:07:11.100 ladies and gentlemen,

01:07:12.400 is the best show

01:07:13.380 you're going to see today

01:07:14.320 on the topic of

01:07:15.720 Ukraine.

01:07:17.080 I don't think

01:07:18.040 there will be

01:07:19.200 any disagreement.

01:07:20.640 If there's anything

01:07:21.480 we can all agree on,

01:07:23.620 this is the best content

01:07:24.800 you've ever seen,

01:07:25.800 and I'm just guessing.

01:07:28.460 Let's just say

01:07:29.280 the competition

01:07:30.060 is pretty low.

01:07:32.500 So,

01:07:32.780 I think it was

01:07:36.020 a tremendous job,

01:07:37.300 and as always,

01:07:39.360 yeah,

01:07:40.800 I say this

01:07:41.300 not to patronize you,

01:07:43.220 but the only reason

01:07:44.680 I can do what I do

01:07:45.640 is because

01:07:46.080 the live viewers

01:07:47.500 are doing what

01:07:48.080 they're doing.

01:07:48.960 Like,

01:07:49.160 the fact that this

01:07:50.020 is interactive

01:07:50.740 is what makes it work,

01:07:52.480 and that you're

01:07:53.180 fact-checking me

01:07:53.900 in real time,

01:07:54.540 that makes a big difference.

01:07:55.520 Scott would do well

01:07:58.580 to watch

01:07:59.000 Wag the Dog.

01:08:00.840 You know,

01:08:01.320 I feel like that's

01:08:02.080 an NPC comment now.

01:08:05.400 I'm going to add that

01:08:06.200 to Soylent Green

01:08:07.300 and The Matrix.

01:08:09.400 Like,

01:08:10.120 anybody who thinks that,

01:08:11.860 first of all,

01:08:12.500 anybody who thinks

01:08:13.120 that I'm not familiar

01:08:14.040 with that movie,

01:08:15.160 what kind of weird

01:08:18.520 assumption would that be?

01:08:19.560 because it's a popular

01:08:22.280 reference.

01:08:23.220 I mean,

01:08:23.460 even if you didn't

01:08:24.120 watch the movie,

01:08:24.840 you would know

01:08:25.240 what it was about.

01:08:28.380 So,

01:08:29.160 all right.

01:08:31.800 So,

01:08:32.240 yes,

01:08:32.420 I'm aware of that.

01:08:38.140 Tell Ukrainians 1.00

01:08:39.140 to negotiate peace

01:08:40.080 with Russia.

01:08:42.960 Well,

01:08:44.060 I don't know.

01:08:47.040 I don't know

01:08:47.700 what peace looks like

01:08:48.600 or what anybody

01:08:49.260 would have to agree.

01:08:51.580 But,

01:08:52.000 that's all for today

01:08:52.820 and I will talk to you

01:08:53.960 tomorrow.

01:08:54.660 Thanks,

01:08:55.080 YouTube,

01:08:55.680 for joining me today.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - February 27, 2022

Episode 1667 Scott Adams： What Happens Next in Ukraine. And Welcome to WWIII. You'll Be Fine

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