Episode 1670 Scott Adams: President Biden's State of the Union Speech and Latest From Ukraine
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
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Summary
On today's episode of Coffee with Scott Adams, Scott talks about the latest on the Zuckerberg money scandal in Wisconsin, and why he thinks it could have a big impact on the 2022 election. Plus, Scott takes a look at the Ukraine situation, and how much influence the U.S. has on it.
Transcript
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Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of your life.
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It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and I know, I know, it doesn't get better than this.
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That's what you were thinking. I just picked up on it.
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Looks like our volume is good, our sound is good, our picture is good.
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It's an amazing day, and let's take it up a notch.
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All you need is our cupper mugger, a glass of tanker gels, a canteen jug, a flask, a vessel of any kind,
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fill it with your favorite liquid, I like coffee, and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.
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It's called the simultaneous sip, and it does everything, including stopping a Russian military convoy 40 miles long.
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All right. Well, let's talk about all the things.
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You know, do you ever wonder if whenever there's a big story going on, such as Ukraine,
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does anybody ever try to slip a big story past the filter?
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Try to just slip a big story past the people watching when everybody's looking the other direction?
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Yeah, nothing like that happened. Nothing like that happened.
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There was a little story about Mark Zuckerberg's money that was funneled into the Wisconsin state elections,
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well, the national elections, but the state was running them in Wisconsin.
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There was a little story about apparently the way the money was used to get out the vote
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I can't use the words to describe what happened there, apparently, or reportedly,
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because I would get kicked off of social media.
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I think I would get kicked off of social media.
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And the news is reporting that Wisconsin found that the Zuckerberg money that went in to allegedly help get out the vote
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was, in several cases, breaking the law, and really important laws, it turns out.
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And, no surprise, do you know why there are laws against that sort of thing?
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They have those laws so that exactly this doesn't happen.
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It's not like, I just want to be, you know, very specific here.
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It's not like the Zuckerberg money did something that somebody discovered after the fact, wow, it technically violated a law.
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Now, at this point, can you make a definitive conclusion about the, let's say, the credibility of the 2022 election?
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I'm not going to say it out loud, because I'll be kicked off of social media.
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But I think if one of the key swing states can show that their local laws were broken by the sound side money,
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and pretty much everybody thinks the sound side money did make a difference.
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You know what word somebody would use for that kind of situation?
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It would start with an R, and it would end with an Iggd.
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Because, as you know, no court, no court, has found any fraud.
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Rasmussen has a poll about impressions of NATO, U.S. impressions.
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And people in the U.S. had a 65% favorable opinion of NATO, which is pretty high for the United States.
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And another question was, should the U.S. continue to give more money to NATO than other countries?
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Because I guess we give about a quarter of the budget.
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32% said, yes, we should give more money to NATO than other countries.
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Who would be against the United States paying less and the other countries paying more?
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And the answer is, I don't think you'd have as much influence on NATO if you only spend 2%.
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But if you're 25% of the budget, then you get to decide what NATO does, which is sort of a bargain, you could say.
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But I wouldn't compare it just dollar to dollar.
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So let's talk about Ukraine and try to guess what's happening through the fog of war and the haze of reality.
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How much of what's coming out of Ukraine do you think is true?
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I'm going to say that nearly 100% of the things that are pro-Ukraine are bullshit.
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But do you believe the stories of great heroism and how the Russian army has been stopped and running out of gas
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and all their conscripts don't even know what war they're in and all of that stuff?
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Well, maybe some of the individual stories are true, especially about the Russian conscripts.
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The 13 Ukrainians bravely telling Russian Navy to F you.
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So pretty much a lot of this stuff you're seeing from pro-Ukraine is part of a very sophisticated persuasion campaign that's working perfectly.
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Because the West has galvanized and it's all persuasion.
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Because think about the argument on the other side, which was expressed by, let's see, Colonel McGregor.
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And he was basically saying, I'm going to paraphrase, so this isn't exactly what he said, just to be clear.
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Like, approximately, the idea is that Ukraine has basically been traditionally Russia.
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Russia told us forever that if we looked to put missiles there, it'd be a problem.
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He did exactly what he's been saying you would do for 15 years.
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You should hope that they surrender as fast as possible because it's just one corrupt government being replaced by another corrupt government.
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And there's Zelensky, he's not George Washington.
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He's just another corrupt guy who's trying to keep his job.
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Now, what part of that point of view could you debunk?
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Well, I don't know that you could debunk any of it, could you?
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If you phrase it right and you frame it right, it looks like the West provoked a war it didn't need to provoke.
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It looked like the West was the aggressor by trying to turn a country that could have been neutral, could have been neutral.
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You know, if we'd push for that, it could have been neutral and we pushed for it to be more aggressively NATO.
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I think NATO started the war by crossing a line they knew would start a war.
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I mean, if somebody says, if you do this for 15 years in a row, says if you do this, it's going to be a big problem and then you do it.
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So I would say that there's a solid argument that NATO, the United States, the West provoked it.
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Let's say, let's say there was, let's say, what would be, no, I'm not going to use an example.
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As soon as I use an analogy, you'll just argue about the analogy, so I won't do that.
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But let me just say that there is a way to frame this story in which Ukraine is not a good guy whatsoever.
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That Ukraine is just using the United States, has persuaded us that they're the good guys,
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they're a bunch of kleptocrats, replacing them with Putin wouldn't make any difference to the people in Ukraine
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because they would just go about their day with another illegitimate government.
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And then the other version is that, you know, Putin is basically Hitler,
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and if he doesn't conquer, if he conquers Ukraine, he'll keep on going.
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How true is it that Putin, if he got away with taking over countries, more of it, he's already gotten away with it,
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but if he keeps getting away with it, he would keep doing it?
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It feels pretty true, because Russia is a power-based philosophy, right?
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And when they don't have the power, they don't use it.
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Because they think, you know, Russia is a big, strong, powerful country,
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So both of those narratives, I think, are 100% accurate.
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So we're basically looking at two sides that are somewhat unredeemable in terms of the governments,
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But the governments of both sides are completely irredeemable.
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I think the United States is just taking a strategic side.
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And a little bit of this is informed by a tweet I saw by Camille Ghalive.
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He seems to know something about this situation.
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But he talks about, you know, how Russia operates.
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And he had this observation that there's some kind of a philosophy that countries can optimize their land-based army
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or their sea-based military, but they can't optimize both.
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It would just be too expensive to have two optimized armies, you know, one in naval and one on land.
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Now, I'm pretty sure the United States does exactly that.
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But a normal country, Russia, just doesn't really have the money to optimize both the navy and the land.
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Apparently, the Soviet Union did have the money, so they could have land and sea optimized.
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Russia doesn't, but they didn't want to give up their, you know, large-ish navy.
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So they kept a large optimized navy, which meant it became largely impossible to optimize their land-based army.
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So the hypothesis is that however good you think the Russian army is, you're way off.
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They're nowhere near as good as you think because they're not optimized.
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So the idea is that there's a little bit of smoke and mirrors going on with the Russian military,
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and that it might be way weaker than you think.
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And that the only way that Putin imagined he could win
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was to go in quickly and scare Ukraine into surrendering, basically.
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Like, he needed a surrender, but he didn't get one because Zelensky is too good with persuasion.
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And Zelensky realized, correctly, apparently, that if he used persuasion and, you know,
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did the George Washington fighting with the troops, you know, leading from the front kind of thing,
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that he could galvanize the rest of the world, or he had a good chance to.
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And they could hold off long enough that Russia's army couldn't sustain.
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So the thinking is that Russia doesn't even have an army that could fight an army war.
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They're just flooding the zone and hoping the bluff works.
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Now, I do believe that Russia could level any city it wanted.
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But if they started leveling cities in Ukraine, that's different than Chechnya,
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meaning that the Russian citizens are going to say,
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wait a minute, did you just level the city where my grandmother lives?
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Did you just level the city where my friend lives?
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Hold on, did you just level the city where my mother-in-law lives?
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And can you imagine holding the country if you'd leveled Kiev?
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Imagine holding the country after you did that.
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Now, what would it take for Russia to hold a country, to occupy it and hold it,
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if the country didn't want to be in their sphere and was going to resist?
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Well, a military expert estimated, looking at all the different occupations of different armies across time,
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that you would need about 20 military in that country for every 1,000 citizens you're trying to suppress.
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In other words, the Russian military is maybe an order of magnitude, at least,
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So in terms of grabbing it and holding it militarily for the long term, not a chance.
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So the only way they could hold Ukraine is to decapitate the leader, put in a puppet,
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And, you know, that they could put pressure everywhere to make sure that that happened.
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But they couldn't hold it the old-fashioned way, with power.
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I'm seeing somebody say, so wrong, in all caps.
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Russia uses threats and persuasion to hold the areas.
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It would be a puppet, plus threats and persuasions and bribes and all those things.
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So, you know, they wouldn't need an occupying army if they could get that kind of cooperation.
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So it could be that Putin has himself in a situation where he can't win,
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because he doesn't have the right kind of army to sustain a siege.
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In fact, it would be sort of a race to see who starves to death first.
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The Russian army, or the people who are under siege.
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I'm not sure who would starve first, because it's pretty hard to feed an army.
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And they're already having problems, reportedly.
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Yeah, how many Russians couldn't hold Afghanistan?
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So if that was the plan, Russia needs to either negotiate its way out and take what it can get,
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or it's got to figure something out, you know, find another way to win or something.
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There are smart people saying the way this probably ends is with a partition of Ukraine,
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where the most Russian part that's close to the border, Russia keeps with a puppet,
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and maybe the rest of it becomes a neutral country or something like that.
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But this brings us to that 40-mile convoy, which some say is a four-mile convoy on a 40-mile road.
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But other reports say it's actually a 40-mile convoy.
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Now, the reports are that the convoy keeps getting bogged down.
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So we see reports of, you know, Ukrainian citizens blocking the streets
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I don't know that that's going to work very long.
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That sounds like something that would work for an hour.
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And maybe if you do an hour at a time, it does make a difference.
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But we're hearing reports that the Russian convoy is running out of food,
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and maybe even some of these soldiers are sabotaging their own gas tanks
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Well, the only thing I believe is that that 40-mile convoy
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is going slower than you'd expect them for reasons we don't understand.
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I don't necessarily believe that they're starving or they're out of fuel.
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That feels like more of the Ukrainian persuasion bullshit, doesn't it?
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It works because you think, well, that could be true.
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that the Russian convoy is running out of food and gas?
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The Ukrainians have given you a bunch of anecdotes
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of Russian soldier incompetence and lack of training.
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They're talking stories about the Russian soldiers
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and you believe that some of those anecdotes were true,
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then you buy into the Russian army being so incompetent
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without enough gas and food and no way to get it to them.
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I feel like if there's one thing an army can do well,
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it's get food and gas to the place you need to get it.
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because as far as we know, nobody's attacking the convoy, right?
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It's literally uncontested on a clear road for miles,
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And you're telling me that the Russians can't get food and gas in there?
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It could be that they're just taking their time
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because they don't want to flatten or siege a city.
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Imagine what would happen to the Russian economy
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How many days of watching Kiev literally starve to death?
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look, Russia, we're going to turn off your lights now.
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I don't think it's going to work to put in a puppet.