Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1671 Scott Adams： Talking About Ukraine, Kanye, And Why Movies Are All Bad

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the peak experience of your entire life.

00:00:09.740 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and everybody's talking about it.

00:00:14.420 Now, just before I signed on here on YouTube, I was talking to my subscribers on the Locals

00:00:19.660 platform, and I was about to give them a tip for persuasion.

00:00:25.060 So I'd like to share it with all of you, since we're all here at the same time.

00:00:28.340 And the tip is this, one of the most powerful things you could ever say to somebody when

00:00:33.960 you need their help solving a problem, and something that you really, really, really need

00:00:38.680 that other person to help you with, and it goes like this, I don't think there's any solution

00:00:44.740 to this problem, but I thought I'd run it by you.

00:00:50.080 Watch how hard somebody will work to solve that problem.

00:00:54.680 It's almost diabolical.

00:00:56.280 It's so persuasive.

00:00:58.300 If you say to somebody, hey, can you help me solve a problem, what's their first reaction?

00:01:04.160 Well, I do have other things to do.

00:01:07.320 There are competing interests, and I don't know if I'm going to get any payoff from solving

00:01:12.860 your problem.

00:01:13.800 It's not immediately obvious to me.

00:01:16.580 But, you know, of course, many people will just help you if you ask.

00:01:19.060 So we live in a world where there are lots of helpful people.

00:01:21.560 But if you've got that one where you know it's going to be a tough sell, you're not necessarily

00:01:26.240 going to get this person's cooperation, tell them the problem can't be solved and that the

00:01:32.040 problem lies strictly within their domain.

00:01:35.700 Yeah, this is an unsolvable problem, but I thought I'd run it by you anyway, see if you

00:01:40.260 had any ideas.

00:01:40.920 That person will work to their death to prove that they can solve an unsolvable problem right

00:01:48.320 in front of you.

00:01:49.380 So that's your tip for the day.

00:01:51.620 How would you like to take this experience up a notch?

00:01:55.660 Yeah, you would.

00:01:57.080 And all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or something, a canteen

00:02:00.600 jug or a flask, a vessel of what kind?

00:02:03.840 Yeah, any kind.

00:02:05.140 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:02:06.620 I like coffee.

00:02:08.820 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:02:12.720 It's the dopamine hit of the day.

00:02:16.240 It's the thing that will make all of you, when you're done, say, thank you.

00:02:23.500 It goes like this.

00:02:24.700 Now, don't you feel grateful for sharing that experience all around the world as one?

00:02:37.940 It was almost like we were a mycelial network.

00:02:43.820 Did I say that right?

00:02:45.880 Mycenium network?

00:02:47.560 All right, how many of you are nerdily enough to know what that reference is?

00:02:52.080 Nerds? 0.98

00:02:52.720 Super nerds?

00:02:53.480 What reference is that?

00:02:55.840 That's right.

00:02:56.320 It's the new Star Trek discovery.

00:02:58.900 Well, in the news, I saw a clip.

00:03:05.000 Joel Pollack tweeted this.

00:03:07.640 I saw it in his feed.

00:03:10.040 That Jen Psaki said in 2019, so remember, this is before she was spokesperson for Biden,

00:03:16.540 and she was on Jake Tapper's show and responding to some questions.

00:03:21.560 She said, quote, there have been a number of moments where even those of us who have been who have affection for Biden think, quote, what on earth is happening right now?

00:03:30.760 Now, there may be some context missing there.

00:03:35.180 There often is.

00:03:37.860 But it makes you wonder if everybody could see it.

00:03:41.700 However, if I'm being fair, it could also mean that he's just a quirky old guy and that you don't always know what he's thinking when he's talking.

00:03:53.140 I mean, it could be just that.

00:03:54.080 So it did sound frighteningly as if people were completely aware that he wasn't 100% there.

00:04:03.880 That is a valid interpretation of this story.

00:04:06.820 But she might have also been generously saying he's just a quirky old guy.

00:04:11.300 We don't know what he's thinking.

00:04:12.600 Have you seen the story about Kanye, who I call Ye, because I'm current?

00:04:22.180 A lot of you are behind the times, and you still call him Kanye West.

00:04:26.860 So, so old.

00:04:29.020 Not me.

00:04:29.680 I call him Ye, because I keep up with things.

00:04:34.140 So he's got this, I guess he's dropping an album and one of the video clips from one of the songs.

00:04:41.420 Features a claymation animation of, I think, Kanye, kidnapping, burying alive, and then decapitating Pete Davidson.

00:04:52.940 Who, as you know, has been dating Ye's ex, Kim Kardashian.

00:05:01.100 Now, there is a great outrage.

00:05:04.040 An outrage, an uproar.

00:05:06.100 An uproar, I say.

00:05:07.900 Because such violence.

00:05:10.080 Such violence.

00:05:10.780 Now, of course, this brought Kathy Griffin into the news, because Kanye is not the first person who got in trouble for decapitating a famous person in some kind of a fictional content.

00:05:26.500 So, I don't know how many of you remember, but I might be one of the few people that you saw defending Kathy Griffin with her decapitated Trump head.

00:05:38.120 How many of you remember that?

00:05:40.840 And the only reason I'm bringing it up is because I like to demonstrate consistency in those few cases where maybe I have it.

00:05:50.740 And so my consistency is, it's art.

00:05:55.060 You know, you just can't judge art by any normal standard.

00:06:00.740 Art is supposed to offend somebody.

00:06:04.140 It's supposed to make somebody uncomfortable.

00:06:05.940 I mean, not every time, right?

00:06:07.580 That's optional.

00:06:08.780 But an important part of art is its offense.

00:06:12.780 That's always been maybe the best part of it, is that maybe it doesn't offend you, but you're pretty sure somebody's getting offended by that art.

00:06:21.840 I've often said that good writing has to give the reader the impression that somebody could get in trouble.

00:06:30.540 You know what I mean?

00:06:32.320 It's like if you see a really funny person talking about, let's say, their family life, don't you think, how does your spouse take that when you go home?

00:06:41.500 How does your family react to those jokes?

00:06:44.340 Or what kind of, are you going to get canceled for that?

00:06:47.420 Have you gone too far?

00:06:48.420 So sometimes the danger is the artists themselves, but other times the joke is on the audience.

00:06:55.980 Norm MacDonald was famous for that.

00:06:58.800 Norm would make the audience uncomfortable, and that was the act.

00:07:02.620 And if you were part of the audience that wasn't uncomfortable, it would be hilarious to you that he'd made the other part of the audience uncomfortable.

00:07:11.380 Chappelle would be another example of that, yeah.

00:07:13.080 So as soon as you say, I don't like this art because it's offensive, well, I'm not sure that that makes sense.

00:07:23.540 You can not like art because art is subjective.

00:07:26.960 And you could say, you know, that doesn't really fit with the way I think and my sensibilities.

00:07:33.240 That would be fair.

00:07:34.100 But just the fact that it's offensive, eh, eh, that's art.

00:07:41.240 Now, okay, somebody says it's lazy art, and I'm going to refute that directly.

00:07:46.000 First of all, do you think that a clip of Kanye, or maybe it was just somebody, I don't know, I think it was supposed to be him,

00:07:57.600 decapitating Pete Davidson, do you think that that approximates how Kanye, who presumably wrote it,

00:08:07.180 do you think that approximates his internal thoughts or his feelings?

00:08:11.100 Don't you think that he had violent thoughts about Pete Davidson in reality, like actual violent thoughts?

00:08:18.640 Probably.

00:08:20.720 Have you ever put yourself in his head?

00:08:24.600 Imagine being Kanye, and you have to watch image after image and story after story

00:08:32.940 about the woman who probably you still love, mother of your children, with this guy.

00:08:42.440 Now, I don't have anything against Pete Davidson.

00:08:45.500 He's pretty entertaining.

00:08:47.240 But imagine how you'd feel if you were Kanye.

00:08:50.400 Now, if you could imagine for one moment how Kanye actually feels in real life about that whole situation,

00:08:57.040 and then you see the claymation, would you say to yourself,

00:09:01.500 I think that captured it.

00:09:03.460 I think he captured the feeling.

00:09:07.440 And is there anybody in the world who's had, like, similar feelings that they also have suppressed

00:09:13.520 and hopefully didn't decapitate anybody?

00:09:16.180 Probably.

00:09:17.840 This is probably hitting home with a lot of people who are mad about somebody in their past, right?

00:09:24.920 Now, sure, decapitation is the extreme, and I don't think anybody would take it as recommending violence.

00:09:30.620 I mean, that would be a ridiculous interpretation.

00:09:33.860 But I would also like to point out that one of the things that makes Kanye Kanye

00:09:39.260 is that he's always an artist.

00:09:43.040 So this is my interpretation of him, right?

00:09:45.480 So just my personal subjective interpretation.

00:09:48.440 There are some artists who you imagine to yourself

00:09:51.120 that the moment they walk off stage, they're a different person.

00:09:54.260 Now, I don't know that this is true, but you take somebody like Drake.

00:10:00.920 I don't know anything about him, so this would just be my impression as an ignorant observer.

00:10:06.500 He gives the impression that he probably performs on stage,

00:10:10.400 but is maybe very different in his personal life, which is not an insult.

00:10:15.080 That would be perfectly reasonable.

00:10:16.600 In fact, probably, you know, the majority.

00:10:20.340 Probably most people are different in their real life than their acting life.

00:10:26.220 But there's something about Kanye that makes me think he's Kanye all the time.

00:10:32.460 In other words, he's never not an artist.

00:10:36.220 He's probably always provoking somebody.

00:10:39.560 I'll bet he never walks into a room without somebody getting uncomfortable about something.

00:10:43.420 It's always art.

00:10:45.520 He doesn't know how to turn it off.

00:10:47.500 Like, you know, his art is, like, exploding into, you know, fashion and design

00:10:52.940 and, you know, Donda doing all these creative things.

00:10:55.780 He's looking at building new homes.

00:10:57.320 He's making music.

00:10:58.240 He's producing other people's music.

00:11:00.540 You know?

00:11:01.920 He's just making art all the time.

00:11:06.060 Now, another person I would put in that same category would be Snoop Dogg, right?

00:11:10.540 Do you imagine that Snoop is a completely different person when he's not on camera?

00:11:16.760 I have a feeling he's probably pretty similar.

00:11:20.220 Like, you feel like you're getting the real guy.

00:11:22.820 And, like, Snoop, very much like Kanye, is art all the time.

00:11:28.880 I don't think he turns it off.

00:11:30.580 That's just who he is.

00:11:32.420 So I'm pro-Kanye on this, of course, not promoting any violence whatsoever.

00:11:38.440 Bloomberg is flailingly taking a run at Trump again with this new story.

00:11:47.200 And might I preface this story by saying the walls are closing in.

00:11:52.000 The walls are closing in on Trump.

00:11:54.420 Oh, they got him now.

00:11:56.140 Wait till you hear how they got him now.

00:12:00.340 And may I also note that it's worse than Watergate.

00:12:02.840 Worse than Watergate.

00:12:03.780 My God, it's worse than Watergate.

00:12:05.180 And the story goes like this.

00:12:08.140 It's a Bloomberg Politics tweet of this.

00:12:12.260 And there's a story they're talking about.

00:12:14.140 It says, Donald Trump's advisor, one advisor, John Eastman's emails,

00:12:20.180 may have evidence of at least three crimes the former president and his associates committed,

00:12:25.160 the House January 6th Committee says.

00:12:26.820 Now, let's parse that sentence.

00:12:30.640 At least three crimes.

00:12:32.380 And you hear that and you say, wow.

00:12:34.380 If there are at least three crimes, if even two of them are not proven,

00:12:41.040 there's still a crime.

00:12:44.000 So am I right?

00:12:45.900 If there's at least three crimes here,

00:12:48.200 I'm pretty sure that at least one of them has got to be real.

00:12:53.000 Walls are closing in.

00:12:54.460 They're closing in.

00:12:55.720 So, yeah.

00:12:59.540 And, but let's read this sentence a little more closely.

00:13:02.340 It says the emails may have evidence, may have evidence.

00:13:05.900 Well, haven't you seen the emails?

00:13:08.180 Why would you say that the emails may have evidence

00:13:11.640 if the story allegedly has seen the emails and knows the contents?

00:13:18.860 If they don't know the contents,

00:13:21.540 should they say that it may have evidence of a crime?

00:13:24.440 That would seem like that's gone too far.

00:13:26.940 But if they have seen the emails,

00:13:28.860 why would they say there may be evidence of a crime?

00:13:32.580 Wouldn't they say that's evidence of a crime?

00:13:35.500 It's not proven,

00:13:37.060 but it's evidence.

00:13:38.820 It's right here.

00:13:39.800 We're looking right at it.

00:13:41.000 Here's the law.

00:13:42.380 Here's the email.

00:13:43.680 Look at the email.

00:13:44.500 Look at the law.

00:13:45.580 It's evidence of a crime.

00:13:46.680 If there were evidence of a crime,

00:13:50.560 that's kind of how I would write the story.

00:13:53.800 But suppose there were no evidence of a crime whatsoever.

00:13:57.300 What could you say that was technically true?

00:14:00.780 There may be evidence of a crime.

00:14:04.260 Maybe somebody else can see it.

00:14:05.860 We don't actually see it.

00:14:07.720 But, you know, we could be wrong.

00:14:10.640 There might be some evidence of a crime in here.

00:14:12.860 We're looking at it and we don't really see it.

00:14:14.720 You can't really list it.

00:14:16.320 Couldn't really tell you what it is.

00:14:18.100 But it may be in there.

00:14:19.620 I'll shake a little bit.

00:14:22.740 So when you see this level of weasel wording,

00:14:25.940 every red flag in the world should come out.

00:14:29.620 All right?

00:14:30.880 Now, what would be one of the examples

00:14:33.400 of one of these things?

00:14:35.060 It may be a crime.

00:14:35.920 It may be evidence of a crime.

00:14:37.940 Apparently, Eastman emailed Pence

00:14:40.520 and asked him to delay the certification

00:14:43.420 of the vote for 10 days

00:14:45.240 so that they could find out

00:14:48.180 if there was some irregularity with the election.

00:14:52.800 Now, this is being treated

00:14:54.880 as possible evidence of a serious crime

00:14:57.540 because it would be proof

00:14:59.940 that he had tried to interfere

00:15:02.020 with an official, you know, federal process,

00:15:05.020 and that would be a crime.

00:15:06.540 So can we agree that there probably is

00:15:10.540 some kind of a crime

00:15:11.500 in which if you're trying to interfere

00:15:14.540 or stop a federal process,

00:15:18.600 part of the election especially, I guess,

00:15:20.580 that that might be a crime?

00:15:22.120 I don't know.

00:15:22.940 I'm not a lawyer.

00:15:24.080 But that sounds like that could be a crime.

00:15:26.340 Doesn't it?

00:15:28.120 Wouldn't you think?

00:15:28.940 I would think it would be a crime

00:15:31.460 to stop an official certification process.

00:15:34.320 There could be a law that says that.

00:15:36.220 But now, let's look at what his email said.

00:15:40.360 And let me be his lawyer at court for a moment.

00:15:43.540 Let's say this goes to court,

00:15:44.760 which seems ridiculous to me,

00:15:46.060 but let's say it does.

00:15:47.840 And I think Eastman is a lawyer,

00:15:50.180 but let's say I'll be his lawyer.

00:15:52.020 I'll be the lawyer to the lawyer.

00:15:53.300 And the prosecution says,

00:15:57.740 here you can see him asking for Pence

00:15:59.500 to delay the certification.

00:16:02.580 That would be a violation of the law

00:16:04.940 that says you can't interfere

00:16:06.040 with these federal processes.

00:16:08.640 And then it's my turn to talk.

00:16:11.460 And I would take the email and I'd say,

00:16:13.920 are we reading the same emails?

00:16:16.700 Because the email that I'm reading

00:16:18.700 says that John Eastman wants to make sure

00:16:21.520 that no laws were broken.

00:16:23.300 He says that directly.

00:16:26.900 He says they want to make sure

00:16:28.280 that there's nothing illegal

00:16:29.640 that happened with the election.

00:16:31.580 This is a man asking for the process 1.00

00:16:34.460 to be extra careful that it's done right

00:16:37.760 and that no laws were broken.

00:16:40.240 This is a completely reasonable request,

00:16:43.000 not a demand.

00:16:44.740 If this had been a demand

00:16:46.120 coming from, let's say, some authority,

00:16:48.080 then you could argue that it was illegal.

00:16:51.460 This was a request.

00:16:53.300 When does a request become illegal?

00:16:57.460 Do you think that a lawyer

00:16:59.640 puts an illegal request in an email?

00:17:04.500 Am I done?

00:17:06.780 Is there anything I have to say after that?

00:17:09.860 In your experience of the world,

00:17:12.900 some of you are experienced with the legal process,

00:17:15.280 is do you think that a lawyer

00:17:16.740 puts an illegal request in an email?

00:17:20.260 Have you ever met a lawyer?

00:17:24.020 That's the last thing they do. 0.93

00:17:26.480 There's probably no lawyer.

00:17:27.740 I mean, I'm sure Avenatti probably did it.

00:17:31.560 But aside from somebody like that,

00:17:34.060 the lawyers don't put illegal requests in emails.

00:17:40.260 That's not a thing.

00:17:41.860 So to imagine that Eastman would have been aware

00:17:44.600 that what he was saying was illegal

00:17:46.800 is kind of a stretch.

00:17:48.820 I mean, I guess anything's possible,

00:17:50.400 but it's kind of a stretch.

00:17:54.120 Somebody says idiot lawyers do. 0.64

00:17:55.740 Well, to me, it seems that this is clear evidence

00:17:59.160 that John Eastman thought he was protecting against crime.

00:18:04.080 So I go to the jury and I say,

00:18:06.140 look, I don't know what you're reading,

00:18:08.060 but this is a guy trying to make sure a crime didn't happen.

00:18:11.560 Now, he made a request that was turned down

00:18:13.860 because Pence had different reasoning.

00:18:15.340 That's the whole story.

00:18:18.740 He made a request to make sure

00:18:20.440 that the law had not been broken.

00:18:22.680 The request was denied.

00:18:25.120 That's it.

00:18:27.220 But the walls are closing in on Trump.

00:18:29.360 The walls are closing in.

00:18:32.560 What a world, what a world.

00:18:35.740 Here's an example of why movies are no longer a product

00:18:39.200 that humans need to consume.

00:18:41.960 There was a time when people like you, perhaps,

00:18:47.960 people like me, would even get in a car

00:18:51.080 and drive to a place where you could watch this thing

00:18:53.160 called a movie, and for two and a half hours,

00:18:54.920 sometimes three, you would be entertained and delighted.

00:18:59.780 But something happened.

00:19:02.700 I don't know exactly what happened,

00:19:05.160 but I think one of the things that happened

00:19:07.380 is that when movies started requiring

00:19:11.300 a layer of wokeness over all of their content,

00:19:15.860 I think it became kind of just useless.

00:19:20.300 It doesn't have any use anymore.

00:19:22.500 Let me give you an example.

00:19:24.760 Well, first of all, is in my imagination

00:19:27.500 or are pretty much all movies designed

00:19:29.960 to make the viewer uncomfortable

00:19:32.620 for the entire experience?

00:19:35.420 That's true, right?

00:19:36.980 Save maybe, you know, the last five minutes

00:19:39.660 where everything goes right.

00:19:41.140 But isn't the whole point of a movie

00:19:42.700 to show somebody's, you know,

00:19:45.120 family is at risk?

00:19:50.320 Why would you want to sit

00:19:51.580 watching somebody's family at risk

00:19:53.400 where somebody lost their money

00:19:55.840 or somebody can't figure out how to eat

00:19:58.580 or somebody's got, like, you know,

00:20:02.220 a serious disease?

00:20:04.020 It's terminal.

00:20:04.740 Why would anybody want to consume that content?

00:20:10.500 But this story just made me laugh.

00:20:13.040 Now, before I tell you this story,

00:20:14.420 I'll give you the context

00:20:15.400 in case anybody's new to me.

00:20:17.560 I'm not only pro-LGBTQ,

00:20:21.900 but I'm so pro,

00:20:25.180 there should just be more of it everywhere.

00:20:28.720 In fact, do you know what you never hear?

00:20:30.660 I was driving through an LGBTQ neighborhood

00:20:35.060 and, man, that looked run down.

00:20:38.060 And the crime?

00:20:38.920 Let me tell you about the crime

00:20:40.180 in that LGBTQ community.

00:20:42.860 No.

00:20:44.260 No.

00:20:45.360 So I'm very pro-LGBTQ

00:20:47.580 and I think that, you know,

00:20:49.600 it should be expressed fully

00:20:51.100 in all content, etc.

00:20:53.200 So having said that,

00:20:55.320 that's different from forcing it

00:20:57.780 into every kind of content.

00:21:00.660 That's what ruins the content.

00:21:02.560 If you force it in there,

00:21:04.380 well, you lost the art part.

00:21:08.080 And apparently there's this movie

00:21:09.600 called The Power of the Dog

00:21:10.920 that I haven't seen,

00:21:12.060 but there's a story about,

00:21:13.700 you know, some actor making fun of it.

00:21:17.240 And here's a description of it.

00:21:21.880 I forget where I saw this.

00:21:23.520 All right.

00:21:25.700 It's been praised by many

00:21:27.280 for how it, quote,

00:21:28.260 and listen to this sentence,

00:21:29.440 it's been praised by many

00:21:31.100 for how it thoughtfully

00:21:32.280 deconstructs toxic notions

00:21:34.880 of masculinity

00:21:35.800 and repressed homosexuality 0.52

00:21:37.680 against the backdrop

00:21:39.180 of the American West.

00:21:41.840 Gay cowboys, basically. 1.00

00:21:44.520 So it's a movie

00:21:45.500 and it has as a, you know,

00:21:48.880 a through theme, I guess,

00:21:50.660 gay cowboys. 0.99

00:21:51.380 Now,

00:21:53.780 Brokeback Mountain

00:21:55.280 was a critical success

00:21:56.760 and apparently this is another

00:21:58.600 critically acclaimed movie.

00:22:01.080 But I'm going to ask you this.

00:22:04.040 Is there a lot of demand

00:22:05.640 for gay cowboy movies?

00:22:09.360 Is there?

00:22:11.040 Like, who are they making the movies for?

00:22:13.940 And again,

00:22:14.860 I want to be very clear.

00:22:16.760 Anybody who wants to make

00:22:18.300 a gay cowboy movie,

00:22:19.480 and anybody who wants to watch it,

00:22:20.660 I'm all for that.

00:22:22.300 Like, very for it.

00:22:24.200 I think everybody should get

00:22:25.300 exactly the entertainment

00:22:26.980 that fits their needs

00:22:29.420 and preferences.

00:22:30.160 Why not?

00:22:31.400 But,

00:22:33.280 doesn't this look like

00:22:34.360 they're just forcing

00:22:35.140 too many variables together?

00:22:37.340 It's like,

00:22:37.860 I like woke things

00:22:39.080 and I like westerns.

00:22:42.100 Why don't we kind of

00:22:43.240 combine these two things?

00:22:45.400 Now,

00:22:46.540 most art

00:22:47.140 is combining

00:22:48.600 things that exist, right?

00:22:51.340 So,

00:22:51.780 there's nothing wrong

00:22:52.320 with combining things

00:22:53.360 that people haven't

00:22:53.980 combined before.

00:22:54.840 That's what

00:22:55.180 great art often is.

00:22:57.240 But,

00:22:58.300 I feel like

00:22:59.480 there was some

00:23:00.880 disconnect

00:23:01.380 between the

00:23:02.660 audience

00:23:05.820 commercial

00:23:07.820 I don't know,

00:23:09.220 reality.

00:23:10.580 It just feels like

00:23:11.680 that people are making movies

00:23:12.800 to make a point

00:23:14.300 as opposed to

00:23:15.140 entertain the public

00:23:16.820 in the same way

00:23:17.620 that they used to.

00:23:19.180 But,

00:23:19.620 maybe you can't get

00:23:20.960 a hundred people

00:23:21.460 to watch the same movie

00:23:22.300 anymore,

00:23:22.780 so you have to...

00:23:23.920 It could be that

00:23:24.720 narrow casting

00:23:25.880 is exactly the way to go

00:23:27.180 because there's so much

00:23:28.860 streaming

00:23:29.940 that you can make a movie

00:23:31.580 for exactly the audience

00:23:33.640 that likes gay cowboy movies

00:23:35.160 and get, like,

00:23:37.240 every one of them

00:23:37.900 to watch it

00:23:38.580 plus every one

00:23:39.940 of everybody else

00:23:40.620 to watch it

00:23:41.140 just to find out

00:23:41.780 what everybody's

00:23:42.220 talking about.

00:23:43.380 So,

00:23:43.840 it might be

00:23:44.180 actually kind of

00:23:44.880 brilliant.

00:23:45.980 So,

00:23:46.280 I'll argue against

00:23:46.940 myself there

00:23:47.560 just so you've

00:23:48.300 heard both sides.

00:23:49.480 I've often told you

00:23:50.520 that if you want

00:23:51.040 to predict events

00:23:51.820 in the world,

00:23:52.400 look at insurance

00:23:53.240 because once

00:23:55.200 insurance companies

00:23:56.120 get involved,

00:23:57.740 they tell you

00:23:58.760 what's going to be

00:23:59.340 possible and what isn't

00:24:00.780 because they'll price

00:24:02.140 some things

00:24:02.840 out of the market.

00:24:05.520 And,

00:24:05.660 so,

00:24:07.440 apparently,

00:24:08.840 that's going to be

00:24:09.540 a big factor

00:24:10.160 with these Russian 0.92

00:24:10.980 sanctions.

00:24:11.780 Because when people

00:24:12.760 look at the sanctions

00:24:13.660 that are being put

00:24:14.480 on Russia right now,

00:24:16.200 the natural way

00:24:17.140 to look at that

00:24:17.680 is to say,

00:24:18.220 okay,

00:24:18.380 what is the exact

00:24:19.180 sanction

00:24:19.660 and who would

00:24:21.260 that exactly

00:24:22.100 affect?

00:24:23.880 And then,

00:24:24.540 if you're smart,

00:24:25.340 you say,

00:24:25.760 uh-oh,

00:24:26.800 these sanctions

00:24:27.440 actually leave out

00:24:28.500 a lot of the energy

00:24:29.780 part of the economy

00:24:31.140 of Russia,

00:24:32.060 which is the main

00:24:33.620 part of their economy.

00:24:35.120 So,

00:24:35.620 what's the point

00:24:36.100 of leaving out

00:24:36.740 the main part?

00:24:37.680 Well,

00:24:38.420 here's where

00:24:38.760 the insurance

00:24:39.400 variable comes in.

00:24:41.000 If you're a company

00:24:42.240 that was involved

00:24:44.400 in any kind

00:24:45.100 of business

00:24:45.700 that involved

00:24:46.260 that big energy

00:24:47.260 part of Russia's

00:24:48.160 business,

00:24:49.200 even if you're

00:24:50.380 not part

00:24:51.000 of the sanctions,

00:24:51.620 do you want

00:24:53.260 to take a risk

00:24:54.140 of getting

00:24:56.180 in business

00:24:56.680 with them,

00:24:57.420 even though

00:24:57.880 it's still legal,

00:24:59.720 and then have

00:25:00.840 something change,

00:25:01.840 as in,

00:25:02.920 you know,

00:25:03.220 Russia goes 0.94

00:25:04.360 out of business

00:25:04.940 or Russia

00:25:06.180 gets more sanctions

00:25:07.080 and suddenly

00:25:07.800 the business

00:25:08.280 you're in

00:25:08.720 gets sanctioned.

00:25:10.060 So,

00:25:10.660 the problem

00:25:11.080 is that

00:25:11.740 the insurance

00:25:12.420 business

00:25:12.980 does those

00:25:14.080 calculations

00:25:14.640 for each

00:25:15.660 of the individual

00:25:16.320 businesses.

00:25:17.360 So,

00:25:17.740 the individual

00:25:18.180 businesses

00:25:18.680 don't have

00:25:19.180 to make

00:25:19.460 individual decisions,

00:25:20.780 they just look

00:25:21.540 at their insurance

00:25:22.300 rate and they say,

00:25:24.260 uh-oh,

00:25:25.440 if I want

00:25:26.040 to work

00:25:27.440 with this company,

00:25:28.660 my insurance

00:25:29.280 rate just made

00:25:30.020 it prohibitive.

00:25:31.960 So,

00:25:32.520 if you watch

00:25:32.920 the insurance,

00:25:33.720 you'll know

00:25:34.100 what's happening

00:25:34.580 and one of the

00:25:35.100 things that's

00:25:35.480 happening is,

00:25:36.180 reportedly,

00:25:37.460 Wall Street Journal

00:25:38.060 says,

00:25:38.920 that people

00:25:40.380 are looking

00:25:40.760 at their

00:25:41.300 risk-reward,

00:25:42.860 looking at

00:25:43.360 the insurance

00:25:43.980 as that reflects

00:25:44.800 it,

00:25:45.540 and saying,

00:25:46.720 even though

00:25:47.180 the sanctions

00:25:47.840 don't really

00:25:48.540 involve my

00:25:49.180 company yet,

00:25:50.340 it could easily

00:25:51.220 involve my

00:25:51.740 company soon.

00:25:52.640 So,

00:25:52.880 I'm just going

00:25:53.220 to get the

00:25:53.520 hell out of

00:25:53.880 there.

00:25:55.040 So,

00:25:56.100 I would say,

00:25:58.060 as of today,

00:25:59.080 the evidence

00:25:59.540 is that what

00:26:00.500 you thought

00:26:01.040 about those

00:26:02.100 sanctions,

00:26:03.260 however we

00:26:04.080 think you

00:26:04.360 thought they

00:26:04.820 were,

00:26:05.600 you're probably

00:26:06.080 wrong.

00:26:07.480 They're probably

00:26:08.340 devastating.

00:26:09.760 And it's because

00:26:10.320 of the second

00:26:10.880 order effect

00:26:11.580 where people

00:26:12.040 just say,

00:26:12.560 well,

00:26:13.200 the blast

00:26:13.760 zone hasn't

00:26:14.340 reached me,

00:26:15.300 but it could.

00:26:16.400 So,

00:26:16.680 I'm going to get

00:26:17.360 further away

00:26:17.960 from Russia.

00:26:20.640 Well,

00:26:21.160 here's the

00:26:21.620 battle of the

00:26:22.400 narratives.

00:26:22.760 So,

00:26:25.120 narrative one,

00:26:25.980 this is Russia's 0.87

00:26:26.840 narrative,

00:26:27.340 or Putin's

00:26:27.820 narrative,

00:26:28.120 is that

00:26:32.880 Putin is

00:26:33.520 denazifying

00:26:34.400 Ukraine.

00:26:35.680 He's

00:26:36.160 rescuing

00:26:36.740 Ukraine

00:26:37.480 from the

00:26:38.820 shelling

00:26:39.620 from the

00:26:40.200 Ukrainians,

00:26:41.600 and especially

00:26:42.380 the Ukrainian

00:26:43.060 Nazis,

00:26:44.180 as he would

00:26:44.740 say it.

00:26:45.840 Now,

00:26:46.900 I believe

00:26:47.640 there is

00:26:48.040 truth to

00:26:48.600 the statement

00:26:49.040 that Iranians,

00:26:50.560 I'm sorry,

00:26:51.080 not Iranians,

00:26:51.780 I just did a

00:26:52.280 Biden,

00:26:53.080 Ukrainians,

00:26:54.860 where is

00:26:55.640 Kamala Harris

00:26:56.240 to mouth

00:26:56.720 the correct

00:26:57.200 word when

00:26:57.660 I need

00:26:57.900 her?

00:27:01.400 Ukrainians.

00:27:05.360 So,

00:27:06.140 but it is

00:27:06.740 true that

00:27:07.300 weren't the

00:27:08.820 disputed

00:27:09.700 territories in

00:27:10.400 Ukraine,

00:27:10.820 they were

00:27:11.080 being shelled,

00:27:11.840 right?

00:27:13.060 Wasn't

00:27:13.560 Ukraine

00:27:14.020 shelling

00:27:14.580 some people,

00:27:17.200 and don't

00:27:17.500 they have

00:27:17.840 some Nazis 0.62

00:27:18.420 in their

00:27:18.900 ranks?

00:27:19.780 So,

00:27:20.120 that's not

00:27:20.600 untrue,

00:27:21.320 is it?

00:27:22.620 It's not

00:27:23.740 the whole

00:27:24.060 story,

00:27:24.560 but it's

00:27:25.420 true.

00:27:26.240 It's a

00:27:26.800 little too

00:27:27.120 true.

00:27:28.040 Let's just

00:27:28.460 say it

00:27:28.700 that way.

00:27:29.700 So,

00:27:30.180 that's the

00:27:30.400 Russian

00:27:30.640 narrative,

00:27:31.200 is that

00:27:31.420 Putin is

00:27:31.760 denazifying

00:27:32.380 Ukraine.

00:27:33.040 The

00:27:33.380 American

00:27:33.760 narrative,

00:27:34.340 which you

00:27:34.760 are being

00:27:35.060 asked to

00:27:35.460 believe,

00:27:36.280 is that

00:27:36.660 Putin is

00:27:37.140 an unstable

00:27:37.840 Hitler-like 0.97

00:27:38.980 dictator,

00:27:39.980 he's losing

00:27:40.480 it,

00:27:41.420 and he just

00:27:42.260 has this

00:27:42.620 need to

00:27:43.000 conquer

00:27:43.260 neighboring

00:27:43.640 countries,

00:27:44.300 probably for

00:27:44.800 some ego

00:27:45.360 or psychological

00:27:47.040 reason about

00:27:48.200 national importance

00:27:49.600 and Russia's

00:27:50.460 greatness,

00:27:51.460 something like

00:27:52.020 that.

00:27:53.020 So,

00:27:53.580 that's two

00:27:54.560 different

00:27:54.860 narratives.

00:27:55.220 Then I

00:27:56.420 see a lot

00:27:56.780 of independent

00:27:57.340 people who

00:27:58.420 are not

00:27:59.300 buying into

00:27:59.800 either of

00:28:00.180 those

00:28:00.400 narratives,

00:28:01.920 say that

00:28:02.900 the real

00:28:03.780 problem here

00:28:04.180 is that

00:28:04.420 the West,

00:28:07.120 and the

00:28:07.460 NATO countries

00:28:08.080 especially,

00:28:08.880 tried to turn

00:28:09.680 Ukraine into a 0.93

00:28:10.580 security threat

00:28:11.400 for Russia.

00:28:12.980 Russia has been 0.99

00:28:13.580 warning us,

00:28:14.600 Putin specifically,

00:28:16.220 has been warning

00:28:17.040 for 15 years

00:28:18.020 that if you

00:28:19.060 make Ukraine

00:28:19.920 and Georgia

00:28:20.660 NATO,

00:28:22.440 that some

00:28:22.940 bad,

00:28:23.360 bad stuff

00:28:23.960 is going

00:28:24.220 to happen.

00:28:25.620 And it

00:28:26.320 turns out

00:28:26.800 that a lot

00:28:27.360 of the

00:28:27.780 smartest

00:28:28.160 foreign policy

00:28:29.180 people for

00:28:29.880 decades have

00:28:31.040 been saying

00:28:31.460 exactly the

00:28:32.420 same thing,

00:28:33.800 saying,

00:28:34.400 essentially,

00:28:35.240 the rest of

00:28:35.980 the world

00:28:36.220 needs to

00:28:36.640 understand that

00:28:37.480 Russia sees 0.90

00:28:38.140 Ukraine as

00:28:39.000 part of Russia,

00:28:40.000 basically,

00:28:40.760 and that if you

00:28:41.980 made that NATO,

00:28:43.560 that's different.

00:28:44.860 That's different

00:28:45.420 than anybody

00:28:46.040 else going NATO.

00:28:47.380 That is a whole

00:28:48.460 different ballgame,

00:28:49.560 and if you

00:28:50.320 do that,

00:28:50.800 you're going

00:28:50.980 to start

00:28:51.280 World War

00:28:51.720 Three.

00:28:52.980 Did you know

00:28:53.760 that the

00:28:54.320 smartest foreign

00:28:55.020 policy people

00:28:56.180 have been

00:28:56.480 saying exactly

00:28:57.300 this for

00:28:58.640 decades?

00:28:59.880 Decades.

00:29:01.040 It's been

00:29:01.440 commonly known

00:29:02.260 by the

00:29:02.600 smartest people

00:29:03.240 that if we

00:29:04.460 did exactly

00:29:05.140 this,

00:29:06.000 this is exactly

00:29:06.780 what would

00:29:07.160 happen.

00:29:07.980 And then it

00:29:08.380 did.

00:29:10.220 Interesting

00:29:10.700 context,

00:29:11.360 isn't it?

00:29:13.080 So that would

00:29:13.780 be the independent

00:29:14.520 narrative that

00:29:15.380 the West

00:29:15.800 basically provoked

00:29:16.980 it.

00:29:18.000 Now,

00:29:18.240 the West's

00:29:18.720 argument would

00:29:19.280 be any

00:29:20.800 independent

00:29:21.320 country can

00:29:22.020 get to decide

00:29:22.720 who it makes

00:29:23.860 a deal with.

00:29:25.320 So yes,

00:29:26.480 yes,

00:29:27.460 in some kind

00:29:28.180 of perfect

00:29:28.600 world,

00:29:29.720 Ukraine and

00:29:30.460 any other

00:29:30.980 independent

00:29:31.400 nation could

00:29:31.980 decide who

00:29:32.480 they ally

00:29:33.140 with.

00:29:34.020 But not in

00:29:34.680 the real

00:29:34.940 world.

00:29:35.780 In the real

00:29:36.260 world,

00:29:37.040 this is

00:29:37.440 Ukraine and

00:29:37.980 Russia.

00:29:39.460 That's the

00:29:39.940 end of the

00:29:40.280 story.

00:29:41.420 Ukraine,

00:29:42.000 Russia.

00:29:43.080 Not like

00:29:43.800 any other

00:29:44.320 analogy.

00:29:45.240 As soon as

00:29:45.760 you say,

00:29:46.120 well,

00:29:46.320 Ukraine and

00:29:46.860 Russia is a 1.00

00:29:47.400 little like

00:29:47.760 nope,

00:29:48.720 nope.

00:29:49.640 You're

00:29:50.120 completely

00:29:50.520 wrong already.

00:29:52.560 The moment

00:29:53.720 you make

00:29:54.160 an analogy

00:29:54.780 about Ukraine

00:29:55.680 and Russia

00:29:56.280 to anything

00:29:57.360 else,

00:29:58.540 you're already

00:29:59.000 wrong.

00:30:00.000 And your

00:30:00.360 thinking is

00:30:01.000 gone.

00:30:03.360 Although the

00:30:04.140 Cuba analogy

00:30:04.740 is pretty

00:30:05.080 good.

00:30:06.700 Having said

00:30:07.560 that,

00:30:08.160 the Cuba

00:30:08.680 analogy is

00:30:09.320 pretty good.

00:30:12.280 Then there's

00:30:13.360 Scott's

00:30:13.740 narrative.

00:30:15.160 Scott being

00:30:15.640 me.

00:30:16.740 Nice to

00:30:17.140 meet you.

00:30:17.420 Here's

00:30:18.780 my

00:30:18.980 narrative.

00:30:20.300 That the

00:30:20.680 CIA has

00:30:21.760 too many

00:30:22.300 Russia

00:30:22.820 experts.

00:30:24.520 And the

00:30:24.840 Russia

00:30:25.100 experts

00:30:25.600 got to

00:30:25.960 do

00:30:26.140 stuff.

00:30:27.620 And if

00:30:27.960 the only

00:30:28.320 thing that

00:30:28.700 they did

00:30:29.140 was tell

00:30:29.540 you,

00:30:29.700 you know,

00:30:29.960 Russia looks 0.95

00:30:30.400 good.

00:30:30.820 I don't

00:30:31.040 see a

00:30:31.300 problem over

00:30:31.800 there.

00:30:32.560 They're

00:30:32.760 acting pretty

00:30:33.260 well.

00:30:33.800 I think we

00:30:34.240 can just

00:30:34.540 ignore them

00:30:34.940 for a while.

00:30:35.760 That's not

00:30:36.340 what you do

00:30:36.780 if you're a

00:30:37.320 Russia expert.

00:30:38.480 If you're a 0.88

00:30:39.160 Russia expert,

00:30:40.160 you find

00:30:40.940 problems.

00:30:42.340 Because that's

00:30:42.800 your job.

00:30:43.300 you're going

00:30:44.380 to find all

00:30:45.100 kinds of

00:30:45.760 suspicious stuff

00:30:46.720 Russia's doing. 0.92

00:30:47.660 And by the

00:30:47.980 way, they

00:30:48.280 probably are

00:30:48.760 doing lots

00:30:49.380 of suspicious

00:30:49.900 stuff.

00:30:51.440 But the

00:30:52.720 thing you

00:30:53.080 focus on the

00:30:53.840 most is what

00:30:54.340 becomes real

00:30:55.000 in this

00:30:56.140 world.

00:30:57.160 Do you

00:30:57.420 think that

00:30:57.760 the news

00:30:58.280 that we

00:30:58.600 talk about

00:30:59.040 every day

00:30:59.460 is the

00:30:59.860 important

00:31:00.160 news?

00:31:01.500 No.

00:31:03.000 Sometimes

00:31:03.520 it is.

00:31:04.580 But it's

00:31:05.700 the stuff

00:31:06.300 we're talking

00:31:06.740 about.

00:31:07.660 We're not

00:31:08.400 talking about

00:31:09.040 it because

00:31:09.460 it's important.

00:31:10.740 It's important

00:31:11.660 because we're

00:31:12.280 talking about

00:31:12.960 it.

00:31:14.160 You get

00:31:14.720 that, right?

00:31:15.260 Works both

00:31:15.780 ways.

00:31:16.560 Sometimes we're

00:31:17.180 talking about

00:31:17.680 it because

00:31:18.000 it's important.

00:31:18.940 A big

00:31:19.300 earthquake, for

00:31:19.900 example.

00:31:20.820 But lots of

00:31:21.380 times the

00:31:21.940 news has

00:31:22.380 told us

00:31:22.720 what to

00:31:23.040 talk about

00:31:23.580 and our

00:31:24.480 talking about

00:31:25.060 it is what

00:31:25.440 makes it

00:31:25.760 important.

00:31:28.260 So I

00:31:29.660 think that if

00:31:30.240 you put too

00:31:30.720 many Russia

00:31:31.580 experts in

00:31:32.420 the CIA,

00:31:33.400 which we do

00:31:34.060 know they

00:31:34.500 are kind of

00:31:35.980 heavy with

00:31:36.500 Russia experts,

00:31:37.760 that they're

00:31:38.580 going to find

00:31:39.200 problems and

00:31:40.440 ways to bug

00:31:41.480 Russia,

00:31:41.900 Russia, and

00:31:43.980 eventually you're

00:31:44.900 going to end

00:31:45.140 up with exactly

00:31:45.860 this problem.

00:31:47.880 So that's my

00:31:48.720 take.

00:31:49.160 My take is that

00:31:50.000 we had a

00:31:50.480 system which

00:31:51.300 guaranteed this

00:31:52.060 outcome.

00:31:54.000 The goal might

00:31:55.660 have been, I

00:31:56.320 don't know,

00:31:56.640 more freedom and

00:31:57.800 democracies and

00:31:59.560 defending ourselves

00:32:00.520 from Russia.

00:32:01.940 Like, those

00:32:02.380 might have been

00:32:02.740 the goals.

00:32:04.100 But if the

00:32:04.880 system was to

00:32:06.000 hire too many

00:32:06.800 Russian experts

00:32:08.600 in the CIA,

00:32:09.220 you're just

00:32:10.560 always going

00:32:10.940 to get

00:32:11.160 this, I

00:32:13.200 think.

00:32:15.360 All right.

00:32:17.540 So which of

00:32:18.300 those narratives

00:32:18.840 is winning?

00:32:19.440 Well, the

00:32:20.320 longer the

00:32:20.940 actual battling

00:32:21.800 goes on, the

00:32:22.520 more the

00:32:22.820 narratives matter.

00:32:24.540 Because, you

00:32:25.900 know, the real

00:32:26.320 battle there is

00:32:27.380 for the, you

00:32:28.540 know, the, I

00:32:29.520 guess the

00:32:29.820 mental real

00:32:31.900 estate.

00:32:33.500 You know, when

00:32:33.940 this is done,

00:32:35.320 let's think

00:32:35.620 about this.

00:32:36.060 If this is

00:32:36.960 done, let's

00:32:37.440 say Putin

00:32:37.880 actually destroys

00:32:39.680 Ukraine but

00:32:40.580 conquers it.

00:32:42.460 Can he

00:32:43.280 survive that?

00:32:45.260 I mean, maybe.

00:32:47.060 But it would

00:32:47.620 be pretty dicey.

00:32:48.700 I can't imagine

00:32:49.400 that Russia would 0.91

00:32:50.540 survive that, at

00:32:51.740 least as a

00:32:52.420 functioning modern

00:32:53.620 society.

00:32:54.300 I don't know

00:32:54.600 that they would.

00:32:56.280 Scott is finally

00:32:57.060 waking up.

00:33:00.640 So it seems to

00:33:01.740 me that Putin

00:33:02.860 can't really,

00:33:04.060 can't really

00:33:06.160 just destroy

00:33:06.900 Ukraine.

00:33:07.680 He doesn't

00:33:07.960 have that

00:33:08.240 option.

00:33:09.160 Because I

00:33:09.660 don't think he

00:33:10.060 would survive

00:33:10.520 it.

00:33:11.380 But he also

00:33:11.960 can't leave.

00:33:13.820 He's kind of

00:33:14.320 trapped.

00:33:15.720 So somebody's

00:33:16.580 going to have to

00:33:16.920 figure out a way

00:33:17.720 out.

00:33:18.540 And I don't

00:33:19.140 think anybody's

00:33:19.840 figured that out

00:33:21.280 yet.

00:33:22.700 All right.

00:33:25.360 I'd like to

00:33:26.020 give you an

00:33:26.400 example of

00:33:26.960 sarcasm misuse.

00:33:28.600 If you would

00:33:29.060 like to use

00:33:29.680 sarcasm, let

00:33:31.300 me tell you

00:33:31.720 the correct way

00:33:32.340 to do it.

00:33:34.060 it should have

00:33:34.740 something to

00:33:35.420 do with

00:33:36.060 something that

00:33:36.600 somebody else

00:33:37.160 said or

00:33:37.600 thought.

00:33:38.520 If your

00:33:39.140 sarcasm is

00:33:40.160 something you

00:33:40.580 just made

00:33:41.060 up, it

00:33:42.360 doesn't really

00:33:42.720 land.

00:33:43.900 It should

00:33:44.200 actually be

00:33:44.880 directed at

00:33:45.900 something that

00:33:46.860 somebody else

00:33:47.380 said or

00:33:47.700 thought.

00:33:49.140 Otherwise, it

00:33:49.860 looks kind of

00:33:50.280 random.

00:33:53.400 I'll give you

00:33:54.140 an example.

00:33:55.560 Chris Buskirk,

00:33:56.660 who is the

00:33:57.100 editor and

00:33:57.600 publisher of

00:33:58.200 AM Greatness,

00:34:00.280 responded to a

00:34:01.660 tweet in which I

00:34:02.720 mentioned that the

00:34:03.620 Russian invaders 0.96

00:34:05.360 might be running

00:34:07.120 out of food and

00:34:08.200 gas fairly soon,

00:34:10.420 specifically the

00:34:11.800 caravan, 40-mile

00:34:14.080 caravan that

00:34:15.000 stalled.

00:34:16.360 And here was

00:34:17.000 Chris's attempt

00:34:18.680 at sarcasm.

00:34:20.500 LOL, try getting

00:34:22.240 some news from

00:34:22.980 legitimate sources,

00:34:24.140 not regime

00:34:24.700 propaganda.

00:34:25.920 When was the

00:34:26.580 last time you

00:34:27.280 were right about

00:34:27.880 something and

00:34:28.480 didn't just repeat

00:34:29.260 what you heard on

00:34:30.020 MSNBC?

00:34:30.740 Do you

00:34:32.420 honestly think

00:34:33.160 tanks need

00:34:34.380 gas and

00:34:35.100 armies need

00:34:36.160 food is a

00:34:37.200 hot take?

00:34:40.060 Now, that's

00:34:41.520 not how you do

00:34:42.080 sarcasm.

00:34:44.240 First of all,

00:34:45.940 he has no idea

00:34:46.680 who I even am.

00:34:48.600 Apparently, this

00:34:50.240 is his first

00:34:50.840 exposure to me,

00:34:52.080 because if he

00:34:53.000 thinks I'm

00:34:53.480 repeating MSNBC

00:34:54.820 talking points,

00:34:56.480 he has not

00:34:57.040 spent a lot of

00:34:57.860 time consuming

00:34:58.600 my content,

00:34:59.840 has he?

00:35:01.120 So, problem

00:35:02.340 number one,

00:35:03.320 doesn't even know

00:35:04.080 who he's talking

00:35:04.600 to.

00:35:05.780 Number two,

00:35:07.020 here's how he

00:35:07.620 frames my

00:35:08.220 argument.

00:35:09.160 Do you honestly

00:35:09.820 think tanks

00:35:10.740 need gas and

00:35:11.720 armies need

00:35:12.820 food is a

00:35:13.440 hot take?

00:35:15.380 No.

00:35:17.020 No, I don't

00:35:18.200 think that's a

00:35:18.860 hot take,

00:35:20.140 nor did I

00:35:21.080 say that.

00:35:22.520 So the

00:35:23.140 sarcasm, if

00:35:24.200 it's about an

00:35:24.880 imaginary person

00:35:25.880 saying imaginary

00:35:26.740 things, well,

00:35:27.540 it doesn't land.

00:35:28.600 It doesn't land.

00:35:30.120 Here's what I

00:35:30.920 think.

00:35:31.580 I think, of course,

00:35:32.500 they thought about

00:35:33.120 resupply, but I

00:35:34.600 don't think they're

00:35:35.120 getting it right.

00:35:36.620 I think it's

00:35:37.200 hard.

00:35:39.060 That's all.

00:35:40.340 Is anybody

00:35:40.800 disagreeing with

00:35:41.800 the basic

00:35:42.240 statement that

00:35:43.460 resupplying a

00:35:44.520 40-mile caravan in

00:35:46.000 the middle of a

00:35:46.640 war in enemy

00:35:48.020 territory, where

00:35:49.260 you have a

00:35:49.760 well-armed and

00:35:51.560 dedicated, ferocious

00:35:53.140 army fighting

00:35:53.820 back, does

00:35:55.860 anybody think it's

00:35:56.500 easy to resupply

00:35:57.400 them?

00:35:59.280 I'm just

00:35:59.920 saying that

00:36:00.340 that might be

00:36:00.840 a little

00:36:01.060 harder than

00:36:01.580 maybe they

00:36:02.720 thought.

00:36:05.260 But there's

00:36:05.920 some interesting

00:36:06.420 things we're

00:36:07.380 learning about

00:36:07.920 this, what's

00:36:10.100 happening now.

00:36:10.620 Number one,

00:36:12.900 Jillian Turner

00:36:13.560 reported that

00:36:14.760 there's some

00:36:15.260 European official

00:36:16.220 who thinks he

00:36:17.960 knows that the

00:36:18.480 Chinese government

00:36:19.360 actually asked

00:36:20.120 Putin to delay

00:36:20.880 the invasion

00:36:21.720 until after the

00:36:23.060 Olympics.

00:36:23.420 Do you

00:36:24.060 believe that?

00:36:25.220 Do you

00:36:25.800 believe that

00:36:27.740 China actually

00:36:28.620 got Russia to 0.96

00:36:29.440 delay until

00:36:30.440 after the

00:36:30.920 Olympics?

00:36:32.340 It looks

00:36:33.200 exactly like

00:36:34.020 that, doesn't

00:36:35.440 it?

00:36:36.380 I'm going to

00:36:37.180 say 90%

00:36:39.040 yes.

00:36:40.820 90% yes.

00:36:42.440 Because it

00:36:43.140 just looks too

00:36:44.380 much exactly like

00:36:45.260 it.

00:36:45.840 I don't know

00:36:46.560 that this

00:36:46.920 European official

00:36:48.820 has any inside

00:36:49.760 information.

00:36:50.260 that might be

00:36:50.960 dicey, but I

00:36:52.500 don't think

00:36:52.760 there's any

00:36:53.140 doubt about

00:36:53.740 it.

00:36:54.580 I mean, the

00:36:54.940 timing would

00:36:55.420 be too

00:36:55.740 weirdly

00:36:56.080 coincidental.

00:36:59.860 Here's a

00:37:00.560 question I've

00:37:01.180 been wondering

00:37:01.560 about.

00:37:02.480 I've been

00:37:02.800 reading that

00:37:03.300 we know

00:37:04.080 almost nothing

00:37:04.780 about Putin

00:37:05.480 because Putin's

00:37:07.200 inner circle is

00:37:08.040 impossible to

00:37:09.180 penetrate.

00:37:11.460 That as good

00:37:13.060 as our

00:37:13.380 intelligence is,

00:37:14.920 we can't

00:37:15.420 really get

00:37:15.820 inside Putin's

00:37:17.200 enclosed circle.

00:37:18.620 But somehow,

00:37:21.140 despite not

00:37:21.760 being able to

00:37:22.300 get into

00:37:22.640 Putin's 0.59

00:37:23.120 inner circle,

00:37:24.240 our

00:37:24.500 intelligence

00:37:24.940 knew exactly

00:37:25.940 what Russia

00:37:26.560 was going to

00:37:27.180 do and

00:37:27.540 when.

00:37:30.280 What's going

00:37:30.980 on here?

00:37:32.260 How is it

00:37:32.920 that we knew

00:37:34.480 exactly what

00:37:35.340 Putin was

00:37:35.800 going to do

00:37:36.500 and when,

00:37:38.600 so much so

00:37:39.400 that, and

00:37:40.380 I'm going to

00:37:40.680 give the

00:37:40.940 Biden

00:37:41.160 administration

00:37:41.740 a lot of

00:37:42.420 credit for

00:37:42.880 this.

00:37:43.700 A lot of

00:37:44.220 credit.

00:37:45.280 This is

00:37:45.980 full-throated

00:37:46.660 credit.

00:37:47.060 There's not

00:37:48.600 going to be

00:37:48.900 any but,

00:37:49.560 you know,

00:37:50.020 but Trump

00:37:50.760 could have

00:37:51.060 done it

00:37:51.320 better or

00:37:51.620 anything like

00:37:51.900 this.

00:37:52.040 This is

00:37:52.200 just full

00:37:53.320 credit.

00:37:54.280 The way

00:37:54.860 they laid

00:37:55.360 out Russia's 0.99

00:37:56.060 plan about

00:37:57.760 the false

00:37:58.300 flags and

00:37:59.180 what they

00:37:59.440 were going

00:37:59.720 to do was

00:38:01.120 brilliant.

00:38:02.140 It was

00:38:02.480 brilliant.

00:38:03.520 It's one of

00:38:03.780 the, and

00:38:04.500 to a large

00:38:05.740 degree, it's

00:38:06.520 why the

00:38:06.840 world is

00:38:07.280 uniting.

00:38:08.340 Because it

00:38:08.940 was so

00:38:09.740 transparent,

00:38:13.420 and the

00:38:14.000 United States

00:38:14.720 made it so,

00:38:15.480 extra transparent,

00:38:16.360 that it

00:38:18.180 really framed

00:38:18.860 the thing.

00:38:19.900 Basically, the

00:38:20.620 United States

00:38:21.200 framed the

00:38:21.920 situation first.

00:38:23.480 And whoever

00:38:24.020 frames it

00:38:24.760 first has a

00:38:25.380 huge advantage.

00:38:26.860 And that

00:38:28.480 was brilliant.

00:38:29.200 The way the

00:38:30.160 Biden administration

00:38:30.840 handled that

00:38:31.560 part of it

00:38:32.140 leading up to

00:38:33.120 the war was

00:38:33.500 just brilliant.

00:38:34.420 There's no

00:38:35.320 qualifier on

00:38:36.060 that.

00:38:36.220 That was just

00:38:36.760 plain brilliant.

00:38:38.400 But how

00:38:39.040 did they do

00:38:39.440 it?

00:38:39.660 Do you think

00:38:43.240 that we have

00:38:43.900 maybe better

00:38:45.780 intelligence on

00:38:46.740 the inside

00:38:47.240 than Putin

00:38:48.440 knows?

00:38:50.360 Or is it,

00:38:51.360 you know,

00:38:51.540 it could be

00:38:51.860 AI.

00:38:52.260 You're right.

00:38:52.700 AI could have

00:38:53.320 done it.

00:38:54.300 If AI didn't

00:38:55.700 do it, you

00:38:56.900 could imagine

00:38:57.400 that it could

00:38:57.980 do it just

00:38:58.800 by recognizing

00:38:59.740 assets and

00:39:00.560 the movement

00:39:01.140 of assets.

00:39:02.100 So, yes.

00:39:02.960 It could be

00:39:03.700 that it was

00:39:04.100 just the

00:39:04.420 movement of

00:39:04.880 assets.

00:39:05.780 It could be

00:39:06.560 that Russia 0.72

00:39:07.340 is so

00:39:07.720 predictable that

00:39:09.040 this is exactly

00:39:09.840 the way they

00:39:10.520 attacked Finland.

00:39:11.420 So, if you

00:39:13.080 were to look

00:39:13.480 at 1939,

00:39:16.740 1940,

00:39:17.800 Stalin 0.57

00:39:18.260 attacking

00:39:18.800 Finland,

00:39:20.120 they're using

00:39:20.680 the same

00:39:21.060 playbook.

00:39:22.380 So, it

00:39:22.620 could be

00:39:23.060 that our

00:39:24.200 intelligence

00:39:24.580 people were

00:39:25.160 just smart

00:39:25.640 enough to

00:39:26.060 know that

00:39:26.440 you don't

00:39:26.720 have to

00:39:27.020 have any

00:39:27.300 intelligence

00:39:27.680 on it.

00:39:28.440 You just

00:39:29.000 look what

00:39:29.360 they always

00:39:29.760 do, and

00:39:30.960 then you

00:39:31.200 say, well,

00:39:31.780 they always

00:39:32.160 do this,

00:39:33.100 and they

00:39:33.360 always do

00:39:33.720 it in this

00:39:34.120 order, so

00:39:35.240 we'll just

00:39:35.620 tell you in

00:39:36.080 advance what

00:39:36.540 they're going

00:39:36.820 to do, and

00:39:37.160 then they

00:39:37.420 did it.

00:39:38.200 Because they

00:39:38.560 always do it,

00:39:39.120 and they

00:39:39.320 always do it

00:39:39.720 in that

00:39:39.960 order.

00:39:40.180 And part

00:39:41.140 of it is

00:39:41.560 always, we're

00:39:43.540 definitely not

00:39:44.100 attacking you,

00:39:45.140 we're saving

00:39:45.880 you.

00:39:46.880 So, they

00:39:47.220 always do

00:39:47.640 the, no,

00:39:48.300 we're not

00:39:48.540 conquering

00:39:49.520 you, no,

00:39:50.860 we're

00:39:51.240 liberating

00:39:51.740 you, we're

00:39:52.120 saving you,

00:39:52.900 we're saving

00:39:53.680 you from

00:39:54.040 yourselves.

00:39:55.280 And then

00:39:55.920 they'll do

00:39:56.260 the false

00:39:57.320 flag attacks.

00:39:59.380 So, yeah,

00:40:01.700 it happened

00:40:02.300 just the way

00:40:02.700 they said.

00:40:03.820 So, there

00:40:07.720 are some

00:40:07.960 more interesting

00:40:08.520 things that

00:40:09.120 came out of

00:40:09.560 this.

00:40:10.180 really

00:40:10.420 interesting

00:40:10.820 actually.

00:40:12.520 So, how

00:40:13.020 would you

00:40:13.260 like to

00:40:13.620 be in

00:40:14.000 a 40

00:40:15.660 mile

00:40:16.060 military

00:40:16.980 convoy

00:40:17.580 that's

00:40:18.640 stalled

00:40:19.040 in enemy

00:40:19.940 territory?

00:40:22.060 And

00:40:22.440 apparently,

00:40:24.080 the heavy

00:40:25.120 equipment can't

00:40:25.940 really get

00:40:26.340 off the

00:40:26.680 paved road

00:40:27.340 because the

00:40:28.700 mud and

00:40:30.240 stuff is

00:40:31.160 such that

00:40:31.720 they won't

00:40:32.060 get out

00:40:32.400 of it.

00:40:32.680 So, you

00:40:34.960 have to be

00:40:35.460 in a

00:40:37.500 three-wide

00:40:38.760 column for

00:40:40.180 miles and

00:40:40.740 miles.

00:40:41.200 Some of it

00:40:41.720 is spread

00:40:42.060 out, but a

00:40:42.500 lot of it

00:40:42.780 is concentrated.

00:40:44.120 You can't

00:40:44.820 go forward,

00:40:46.100 you can't go

00:40:46.760 backwards, and

00:40:47.920 you can't go

00:40:48.420 sideways.

00:40:50.400 And you

00:40:50.920 probably can't

00:40:51.600 get food, and

00:40:52.600 you probably are

00:40:53.160 having trouble

00:40:53.620 getting gas.

00:40:55.140 And that's not

00:40:56.000 your biggest

00:40:56.480 problem.

00:40:56.960 I think, I

00:41:00.480 saw a tweet by

00:41:01.420 an expert, and

00:41:01.960 I tweeted it if

00:41:02.640 you want to see

00:41:03.260 the details in

00:41:04.000 my Twitter

00:41:04.560 feed, and 0.84

00:41:06.040 there's a

00:41:07.040 gentleman called

00:41:09.640 Trent Telenko

00:41:11.040 whose job in

00:41:12.640 the U.S.

00:41:13.200 Army had been

00:41:14.080 similar to what

00:41:15.380 there must be in

00:41:16.060 the Russian

00:41:16.420 Army, somebody

00:41:17.860 in charge of

00:41:18.540 maintenance for

00:41:19.180 the big

00:41:19.480 equipment.

00:41:20.580 And here's a

00:41:21.100 little detail

00:41:21.720 that is really

00:41:23.380 interesting.

00:41:25.220 I don't know

00:41:26.000 how much this

00:41:26.780 explains, but

00:41:27.460 it could

00:41:27.760 explain all

00:41:28.480 of it.

00:41:29.860 And he saw

00:41:30.440 a picture,

00:41:31.600 Trent did, of

00:41:32.960 one of the

00:41:33.500 wheels coming

00:41:34.080 off one of

00:41:34.540 the German

00:41:35.140 vehicles and

00:41:35.900 stuck in the

00:41:36.420 mud, and he

00:41:37.760 describes how

00:41:38.720 big vehicles

00:41:39.760 like this have

00:41:40.380 a tire inflation

00:41:41.460 system, so

00:41:43.240 that the tires

00:41:44.080 of this big

00:41:44.700 equipment can

00:41:45.880 be inflated

00:41:46.680 and deflated

00:41:47.420 as they go,

00:41:49.160 so they don't

00:41:49.660 have to get

00:41:50.380 out and put

00:41:50.860 air in them.

00:41:51.460 They can

00:41:51.760 inflate and

00:41:52.320 deflate for

00:41:53.420 the type of

00:41:53.920 terrain they're

00:41:54.420 on.

00:41:54.740 Now, I

00:41:54.980 imagine it

00:41:55.420 would be

00:41:55.720 harder

00:41:56.520 inflation for

00:41:57.780 the road and

00:41:59.960 maybe lighter

00:42:00.840 inflation if

00:42:01.740 they're in

00:42:02.860 something where

00:42:03.420 they need

00:42:03.700 some traction,

00:42:04.400 just guessing,

00:42:05.020 I don't know.

00:42:05.940 But the

00:42:07.440 problem is,

00:42:08.480 if you don't

00:42:09.220 exercise the

00:42:10.360 tires and

00:42:11.200 that system,

00:42:12.580 it gets

00:42:13.500 brittle.

00:42:15.120 And by

00:42:15.460 exercise it,

00:42:16.340 I mean if

00:42:17.300 you don't have

00:42:17.920 actual use for

00:42:18.800 the vehicles,

00:42:19.660 you have to

00:42:20.240 make sure that

00:42:20.800 you inflate the

00:42:21.740 tires and

00:42:22.300 deflate them

00:42:22.840 on a regular

00:42:23.360 basis.

00:42:25.740 Trent was

00:42:26.440 looking at

00:42:26.960 just one

00:42:28.040 picture,

00:42:28.700 but one

00:42:29.020 picture of

00:42:29.600 a Russian

00:42:30.400 vehicle with

00:42:31.780 that maintenance

00:42:32.280 problem and

00:42:33.000 recognized it

00:42:33.880 as a poor

00:42:35.240 maintenance

00:42:35.740 problem.

00:42:36.800 In other

00:42:37.120 words, it

00:42:37.620 looked like

00:42:38.060 that vehicle

00:42:38.800 had not

00:42:39.200 been what

00:42:40.100 they call

00:42:41.100 exercised,

00:42:42.460 meaning had

00:42:42.920 not been

00:42:43.300 inflated and

00:42:44.080 deflated to

00:42:44.860 keep the

00:42:45.420 tires in

00:42:46.880 the right

00:42:47.280 non-brittle

00:42:49.120 state, I

00:42:49.620 guess.

00:42:49.780 Likewise, he

00:42:51.660 mentioned that

00:42:52.200 if you park

00:42:52.780 the vehicles

00:42:53.500 where the

00:42:53.960 sun can

00:42:54.440 reach the

00:42:55.660 tires, that

00:42:57.120 it damages

00:42:57.880 the tires.

00:42:59.240 And again,

00:42:59.680 makes them

00:43:00.060 too brittle.

00:43:02.120 So you

00:43:02.640 have to

00:43:02.940 rotate how

00:43:03.660 you're parking

00:43:04.260 the vehicles

00:43:04.980 and you

00:43:05.840 have to

00:43:06.180 exercise them.

00:43:07.840 And the

00:43:08.360 suggestion is

00:43:09.060 that the

00:43:09.420 Russian army

00:43:09.920 was not

00:43:10.360 competent enough

00:43:11.360 or was too

00:43:12.580 corrupt to

00:43:13.760 do that.

00:43:14.760 And that

00:43:15.040 that 40

00:43:15.620 miles of,

00:43:16.740 it's possible

00:43:17.940 that that 40

00:43:19.040 miles of

00:43:19.940 convoy has

00:43:21.500 enough bad,

00:43:23.340 poorly

00:43:23.580 maintained stuff

00:43:24.660 that it

00:43:25.960 really can't

00:43:26.520 go anywhere.

00:43:27.800 It may

00:43:28.480 never be

00:43:29.220 able to

00:43:29.520 go forward.

00:43:30.480 It may

00:43:31.020 never be

00:43:31.520 able to

00:43:31.780 go back.

00:43:32.640 It may

00:43:33.000 never be

00:43:33.440 able to

00:43:33.680 go sideways

00:43:34.300 because that's

00:43:35.120 where the

00:43:35.440 mud is.

00:43:36.920 It may

00:43:37.440 already be

00:43:38.060 captive.

00:43:39.760 In related

00:43:40.760 news,

00:43:42.760 Turkey has 0.93

00:43:43.360 delivered what

00:43:44.160 they call a

00:43:44.860 batch of

00:43:46.000 new drones

00:43:46.740 to Ukraine.

00:43:49.400 Ukraine says

00:43:50.360 they're already

00:43:50.800 using these

00:43:51.340 new drones,

00:43:52.220 the batch,

00:43:53.240 we don't

00:43:53.580 know how

00:43:53.900 many is in

00:43:54.300 the batch,

00:43:55.740 the batch,

00:43:57.360 to attack

00:43:59.240 columns or

00:44:00.560 convoys.

00:44:01.220 I guess they

00:44:01.600 call it one

00:44:02.100 of those.

00:44:03.060 Now, I don't

00:44:03.520 know if that

00:44:03.900 includes the

00:44:04.440 40-mile column

00:44:05.240 because isn't

00:44:07.140 it weird that

00:44:07.740 there's a lack

00:44:08.520 of reporting

00:44:09.380 about that

00:44:09.840 being attacked?

00:44:11.920 Here's what

00:44:12.580 I think.

00:44:13.820 I think our

00:44:14.840 intelligence has

00:44:15.780 determined that

00:44:16.720 they trapped

00:44:17.260 themselves and

00:44:18.540 they could

00:44:18.800 just leave

00:44:19.240 them there.

00:44:20.560 I think

00:44:21.420 there might

00:44:22.080 be a point

00:44:22.680 where that

00:44:23.720 column becomes

00:44:24.940 hostages.

00:44:27.520 Because you

00:44:28.160 can see the

00:44:28.760 Russian army

00:44:32.260 is looking to

00:44:32.980 siege or

00:44:33.660 starve Kiev,

00:44:35.300 and you can

00:44:35.780 see that the

00:44:36.260 Russian armies

00:44:36.800 have cut off

00:44:37.560 supply lines

00:44:38.360 of the

00:44:39.040 Ukrainian army

00:44:39.800 in the south.

00:44:40.460 So you

00:44:42.020 have sort

00:44:42.540 of a

00:44:42.780 starvation

00:44:43.460 standoff

00:44:45.280 here.

00:44:46.440 I believe

00:44:47.280 that the

00:44:47.680 Ukrainians

00:44:48.280 could destroy

00:44:49.620 the entire

00:44:50.180 column,

00:44:51.340 40 miles

00:44:52.120 of Russian

00:44:52.840 military.

00:44:53.520 I think they

00:44:53.900 could destroy

00:44:54.380 it all now.

00:44:55.360 Because I

00:44:55.920 think they're

00:44:56.260 trapped.

00:44:57.000 I don't

00:44:57.340 think they

00:44:57.660 can go

00:44:58.000 anywhere.

00:44:59.320 And obviously

00:45:00.400 if the

00:45:00.780 drones are

00:45:04.780 operating,

00:45:05.900 have you

00:45:06.700 heard of

00:45:07.040 any drones

00:45:07.560 being shot

00:45:08.040 down?

00:45:08.300 Maybe, but

00:45:11.100 apparently they

00:45:11.660 have enough

00:45:12.280 drones in

00:45:12.720 the sky.

00:45:13.560 Now how

00:45:13.880 many is a

00:45:14.540 batch?

00:45:16.380 How many is

00:45:17.300 a batch of

00:45:17.940 drones?

00:45:19.240 And how

00:45:19.900 many would

00:45:20.320 you need?

00:45:21.820 Because I

00:45:22.320 think Ukraine

00:45:24.060 had 20,

00:45:25.180 some said 10

00:45:26.080 drones.

00:45:27.160 But now they

00:45:27.820 have a new

00:45:28.200 batch.

00:45:29.420 What is the

00:45:30.120 theoretical number

00:45:31.060 of drones it

00:45:31.780 would take to

00:45:33.080 guarantee that

00:45:33.900 Russia couldn't 0.95

00:45:35.320 conquer and

00:45:36.500 hold Ukraine?

00:45:38.300 There is a

00:45:38.760 number.

00:45:40.400 How close

00:45:40.960 are we?

00:45:42.820 And that

00:45:43.480 number could

00:45:44.020 be 20.

00:45:46.020 Because if the

00:45:46.960 Russians can't 1.00

00:45:47.620 get off the

00:45:48.060 paved road with

00:45:49.040 their heavy

00:45:49.360 equipment, I

00:45:50.840 think 20

00:45:51.440 drones could 0.59

00:45:52.120 actually hold

00:45:53.100 the whole

00:45:53.400 country if

00:45:54.720 they can't

00:45:55.080 shoot them

00:45:55.360 down.

00:45:56.080 Now if the

00:45:57.700 first thing the

00:45:58.300 drones do is

00:45:58.840 take out the

00:45:59.320 anti-aircraft,

00:46:01.120 which I

00:46:02.220 imagine is

00:46:02.740 possible, right?

00:46:04.200 Can't they

00:46:04.640 take that out

00:46:05.140 first?

00:46:05.780 If you take

00:46:06.440 the anti-aircraft

00:46:07.340 first, you

00:46:09.020 just take

00:46:09.420 your time

00:46:09.940 with the

00:46:10.600 rest of

00:46:10.900 it.

00:46:12.100 And I

00:46:12.440 would think

00:46:12.780 that even

00:46:13.260 if you

00:46:13.540 lost five

00:46:14.220 of your

00:46:14.420 20 drones,

00:46:16.000 you could

00:46:16.440 pretty much

00:46:16.900 take out

00:46:17.320 the entire

00:46:17.740 column.

00:46:18.760 Now imagine

00:46:19.340 if you

00:46:19.680 will, that

00:46:21.560 the armed

00:46:22.980 citizens know

00:46:24.700 where this

00:46:25.120 40-mile

00:46:25.660 column is,

00:46:26.860 and that

00:46:27.200 they may

00:46:27.540 already, in

00:46:28.720 towns and

00:46:29.680 locations all

00:46:31.220 around there,

00:46:31.940 already getting

00:46:32.640 closer to it.

00:46:33.480 how many

00:46:35.320 citizens with

00:46:36.240 AKs on

00:46:37.880 both sides

00:46:38.500 of a convoy

00:46:39.200 would it

00:46:40.500 take to

00:46:40.880 take out

00:46:41.300 professionals?

00:46:42.680 I mean,

00:46:43.440 maybe you

00:46:44.060 can't do

00:46:44.380 it.

00:46:44.820 Maybe the

00:46:45.160 professionals

00:46:45.580 just have

00:46:46.080 too much

00:46:46.400 firepower.

00:46:47.620 But I

00:46:49.620 think,

00:46:51.160 yeah, I

00:46:54.080 think that

00:46:54.480 the convoy

00:46:55.300 is going to

00:46:55.820 have some

00:46:56.140 trouble.

00:46:56.840 And it

00:46:57.120 may be in

00:46:57.840 so much

00:46:58.160 trouble that

00:46:58.700 Ukraine could

00:46:59.260 actually trade

00:47:00.060 the life of

00:47:00.880 the convoy

00:47:01.480 for some

00:47:02.900 other

00:47:03.200 accommodations.

00:47:07.020 This is

00:47:07.720 insane.

00:47:09.680 Do you

00:47:10.260 know, I

00:47:10.540 don't think

00:47:10.860 I've ever

00:47:11.220 said anything

00:47:11.780 that somebody

00:47:12.460 didn't think

00:47:12.920 was insane.

00:47:14.580 At least

00:47:15.180 nothing in

00:47:15.640 public.

00:47:17.200 Almost

00:47:17.680 anything that

00:47:18.380 I say in

00:47:18.900 public, any

00:47:20.300 prediction,

00:47:21.700 somebody says

00:47:22.620 this is

00:47:23.040 absolutely

00:47:23.520 crazy.

00:47:24.360 I mean,

00:47:24.560 you've lost

00:47:25.060 it now.

00:47:25.760 Every time.

00:47:26.640 Doesn't matter

00:47:27.020 the topic,

00:47:27.580 doesn't matter

00:47:27.940 what I say.

00:47:28.700 Every single

00:47:29.300 time.

00:47:30.880 Now, could

00:47:33.560 I be wrong?

00:47:34.480 Yes.

00:47:35.260 Let me say

00:47:35.780 as clearly as

00:47:37.040 possible.

00:47:37.820 Because somebody

00:47:38.360 is going to

00:47:38.660 say, Scott,

00:47:40.180 you said

00:47:41.680 Ukraine was 0.87

00:47:42.400 going to

00:47:42.640 win, and

00:47:43.680 then Russia

00:47:44.180 won.

00:47:45.280 No.

00:47:46.500 No.

00:47:47.000 I'm not

00:47:47.600 saying Ukraine 0.54

00:47:49.180 is going to

00:47:49.800 win.

00:47:50.460 I think that's

00:47:51.020 completely

00:47:51.440 unpredictable.

00:47:52.980 I am

00:47:53.520 saying, and

00:47:54.500 have said

00:47:54.820 from the

00:47:55.160 beginning, that

00:47:56.220 Russia doesn't 0.99

00:47:57.220 know how

00:47:57.780 hard the

00:47:58.280 fight will

00:47:58.640 be.

00:47:59.580 And largely

00:48:00.160 because of

00:48:00.860 modern

00:48:01.360 weaponry.

00:48:03.360 Would you

00:48:04.140 say that

00:48:04.800 my initial

00:48:05.480 contrarian

00:48:07.600 opinion, that

00:48:09.160 Russia would 0.98

00:48:09.880 run into

00:48:10.500 surprisingly good

00:48:11.900 modern weaponry

00:48:13.040 and get

00:48:14.520 bogged down,

00:48:15.940 would you say

00:48:16.580 that was

00:48:16.900 accurate?

00:48:17.200 I mean, it

00:48:19.020 was more

00:48:19.620 accurate than

00:48:20.220 all the

00:48:20.500 experts who

00:48:21.040 said it

00:48:21.240 would take

00:48:21.500 48 hours?

00:48:23.160 Can you

00:48:23.800 compare my

00:48:24.480 non-military

00:48:25.260 expertise to

00:48:26.960 the military

00:48:27.740 experts and

00:48:28.380 tell me how

00:48:28.760 I'm doing so

00:48:29.400 far?

00:48:31.180 So far,

00:48:32.600 so far,

00:48:35.340 the military

00:48:35.900 experts said

00:48:36.620 it should

00:48:36.900 have been

00:48:37.120 over in

00:48:37.480 48 hours.

00:48:39.160 I said,

00:48:40.420 no, it's

00:48:40.700 going to be

00:48:40.980 way harder

00:48:41.440 because of

00:48:42.100 modern

00:48:43.180 equipment.

00:48:44.320 And Russia

00:48:44.740 maybe has

00:48:45.480 never faced

00:48:46.400 this modern

00:48:47.200 equipment.

00:48:48.680 Have they

00:48:48.980 ever faced

00:48:49.540 modern drones?

00:48:52.320 Where did

00:48:53.160 Russia ever 0.98

00:48:54.480 go up against

00:48:55.160 modern drones?

00:48:55.960 weapons?

00:48:57.340 Where did

00:48:57.760 they ever

00:48:58.080 go up against

00:48:58.720 this many

00:48:59.540 stingers and

00:49:00.620 anti-tank

00:49:01.200 weapons?

00:49:02.420 Nowhere,

00:49:02.980 right?

00:49:04.400 Am I

00:49:04.740 correct?

00:49:05.340 Am I

00:49:05.880 correct that

00:49:06.400 no Russian 0.99

00:49:07.200 army has

00:49:07.720 ever faced

00:49:08.260 these weapons?

00:49:08.960 I think I'm

00:49:11.020 right, except

00:49:12.080 in small amounts,

00:49:13.080 right?

00:49:13.340 Well, in Syria 0.92

00:49:14.020 they would have

00:49:14.400 small amounts,

00:49:15.260 but nothing

00:49:16.460 that would make

00:49:17.080 a difference.

00:49:18.840 So I ask

00:49:20.940 you again.

00:49:21.460 I want you

00:49:22.400 to give me

00:49:22.740 a direct

00:49:23.180 answer.

00:49:24.620 I said

00:49:25.240 that the

00:49:25.720 Russian army

00:49:26.220 would be

00:49:27.920 surprised by

00:49:28.800 the effectiveness

00:49:30.340 of the modern

00:49:31.000 weapons.

00:49:31.960 The experts

00:49:32.580 said in 48

00:49:33.540 hours they

00:49:34.040 would own

00:49:34.360 Kiev.

00:49:35.020 Who was

00:49:35.460 right?

00:49:35.900 All the

00:49:36.360 military experts

00:49:37.280 or me?

00:49:39.460 Say it

00:49:39.840 directly.

00:49:40.320 Who was

00:49:40.580 right?

00:49:45.400 It's funny

00:49:46.040 how many of

00:49:46.540 you are

00:49:46.740 avoiding that

00:49:47.320 question.

00:49:48.820 Somebody

00:49:49.140 says the

00:49:49.540 experts.

00:49:51.260 So we're

00:49:51.960 saying me.

00:49:55.560 Right?

00:49:56.720 Now, again,

00:50:01.180 do the

00:50:02.140 experts have

00:50:02.820 a problem?

00:50:04.540 Is there

00:50:04.920 something about

00:50:05.940 experts that

00:50:07.100 makes them so

00:50:07.800 often wrong?

00:50:09.980 What is that?

00:50:12.120 Right?

00:50:12.720 I mean, I'm

00:50:13.300 not saying the

00:50:13.740 experts are

00:50:14.220 always wrong.

00:50:14.760 That would be

00:50:15.100 ridiculous.

00:50:15.800 The experts

00:50:16.240 are usually

00:50:16.760 right.

00:50:17.520 It's just

00:50:17.960 in these

00:50:18.400 weird little

00:50:19.740 fog of war

00:50:20.580 situations

00:50:21.200 they just

00:50:21.780 seem to

00:50:22.100 fall apart

00:50:22.620 completely.

00:50:24.000 Whether it's

00:50:24.520 the fog of

00:50:25.100 war or the

00:50:25.480 pandemic or

00:50:26.160 the fog of

00:50:26.660 war of

00:50:26.880 Ukraine,

00:50:27.460 I think the

00:50:27.980 experts just

00:50:28.540 completely fall

00:50:29.260 apart under

00:50:30.400 that scenario.

00:50:31.040 Now, I'm not

00:50:32.280 saying that I

00:50:32.800 could always

00:50:33.320 beat the

00:50:33.820 experts.

00:50:34.700 I'm just

00:50:35.160 saying that

00:50:35.760 I did this

00:50:37.840 time.

00:50:39.380 I mean, I

00:50:40.060 would judge my

00:50:40.720 own performance

00:50:41.480 on that

00:50:42.280 prediction as

00:50:43.160 the only person

00:50:43.940 in the world

00:50:44.360 who said it

00:50:44.940 and the only

00:50:45.840 person who

00:50:46.260 was right.

00:50:46.640 Is that

00:50:47.880 too far?

00:50:48.600 I literally

00:50:49.380 saw no

00:50:50.040 other person

00:50:50.640 say what I

00:50:51.160 said, that

00:50:52.340 the modern

00:50:52.780 weapons would

00:50:53.560 surprise the

00:50:54.500 Russians.

00:50:56.440 Now, I've

00:50:56.960 got another

00:50:57.320 question for

00:50:57.860 you.

00:51:00.040 Is operating

00:51:01.400 a drone

00:51:02.000 something that's

00:51:03.380 so easy, like

00:51:04.360 driving a car,

00:51:05.640 that once you

00:51:06.360 teach somebody

00:51:06.880 to do it,

00:51:07.620 they're all

00:51:08.280 about as good

00:51:08.960 as any other

00:51:09.540 drone operator?

00:51:11.220 What do you

00:51:11.560 think?

00:51:12.260 Or do you

00:51:12.820 think that there

00:51:13.740 are some drone

00:51:14.420 operators who are

00:51:15.180 really, really

00:51:16.100 good, like

00:51:17.320 really, really

00:51:17.980 good, and

00:51:18.920 others barely

00:51:19.840 can keep the

00:51:20.420 thing in the

00:51:20.780 air?

00:51:21.660 Because that

00:51:22.200 would be more

00:51:22.640 common, right?

00:51:23.380 You would expect

00:51:23.960 there to be a

00:51:24.440 pretty big range

00:51:25.380 of how good

00:51:26.480 somebody could be.

00:51:27.540 Second question,

00:51:28.600 if you accept

00:51:29.240 that there's

00:51:29.600 probably a big

00:51:30.160 range in talent

00:51:31.160 of drone

00:51:32.080 operators, what

00:51:33.580 are the odds

00:51:34.120 that Ukraine 0.91

00:51:34.920 had one of the

00:51:36.100 good ones, who

00:51:37.620 was actually in

00:51:38.180 the Ukrainian

00:51:38.660 military, and

00:51:40.600 had that

00:51:40.960 training, and

00:51:42.660 that there were

00:51:43.280 enough of those

00:51:43.840 trained experts

00:51:44.660 to operate

00:51:45.880 all the new

00:51:46.500 drones, because 0.99

00:51:47.800 they've never

00:51:48.200 had this many

00:51:48.760 drones?

00:51:50.140 Do you think

00:51:50.580 Ukraine had

00:51:51.420 way more drone

00:51:52.560 operators than

00:51:54.060 they had drones?

00:51:56.340 Would that

00:51:56.920 make sense?

00:51:58.100 Do you think

00:51:58.500 that they would

00:51:58.920 have three

00:51:59.340 drones and

00:52:01.340 25 operators?

00:52:03.920 What do you

00:52:04.600 think?

00:52:05.940 No.

00:52:06.580 No.

00:52:09.480 Question

00:52:10.000 three.

00:52:12.180 Is it

00:52:12.460 possible to

00:52:13.180 detect who

00:52:14.540 is operating

00:52:15.180 a drone and

00:52:15.940 from what

00:52:16.320 country and

00:52:17.440 what nationality

00:52:18.240 they are?

00:52:20.680 Maybe.

00:52:21.520 I mean, that's

00:52:22.740 the actual

00:52:23.100 question.

00:52:24.900 Can anybody

00:52:25.680 know who's

00:52:26.200 operating a

00:52:26.800 drone?

00:52:28.700 Somebody says

00:52:29.400 yes.

00:52:30.600 All right, let's

00:52:31.180 say that we can

00:52:31.880 know who's

00:52:32.340 operating it.

00:52:34.980 Let's say we

00:52:35.460 can know that.

00:52:36.420 Do you know

00:52:36.860 who's sitting in

00:52:37.420 the chair?

00:52:38.960 Do you know

00:52:39.540 what army they

00:52:40.080 work for?

00:52:40.460 Let's say the

00:52:42.040 best...

00:52:42.360 I'm just going

00:52:42.860 to give you a

00:52:43.480 speculative

00:52:43.920 possibility.

00:52:45.200 Let's say the

00:52:45.820 best drone

00:52:46.740 operators in

00:52:47.460 the world were

00:52:49.180 not Ukrainians.

00:52:51.040 Maybe they were

00:52:51.640 Turkish, because 1.00

00:52:52.840 these are Turkish

00:52:53.420 weapons, right?

00:52:54.380 Maybe the Turks 0.99

00:52:55.220 are the best

00:52:55.760 operators of

00:52:56.440 that equipment.

00:52:58.000 Could the

00:52:58.500 Turks say, you 1.00

00:53:00.740 know, this drone

00:53:01.480 operator, he's in

00:53:02.980 our army, but he's

00:53:04.440 going to resign

00:53:05.000 today.

00:53:06.540 So he just...

00:53:07.200 Here it is.

00:53:07.680 Here's the paper.

00:53:08.300 So our best

00:53:09.460 drone operator, he

00:53:10.280 just resigned, so

00:53:11.220 he's not in our

00:53:12.220 army.

00:53:12.960 But there are a

00:53:13.660 lot of volunteers

00:53:14.400 signing up to work

00:53:15.780 for Ukraine.

00:53:17.080 And if this guy

00:53:18.040 decides to

00:53:18.660 volunteer, well,

00:53:21.040 that's on him and

00:53:22.040 that's on the

00:53:22.600 Ukraine.

00:53:23.140 He can still sit

00:53:24.000 in this seat.

00:53:25.440 You know, we'll

00:53:25.880 let him sit in

00:53:26.360 this chair, but he

00:53:27.060 does not work for

00:53:27.860 us.

00:53:28.780 And these drones

00:53:30.020 that he's operating,

00:53:31.520 we sold them.

00:53:32.800 These are not

00:53:33.220 Turkish drones.

00:53:36.660 Is it possible

00:53:37.760 that NATO is

00:53:39.540 running the

00:53:40.020 drones?

00:53:41.860 Maybe not on

00:53:42.800 paper.

00:53:44.040 But do you

00:53:44.660 think that the

00:53:45.340 Ukrainians are 1.00

00:53:46.440 running the

00:53:46.900 drones?

00:53:47.740 Really?

00:53:49.800 I feel like

00:53:50.700 NATO's already

00:53:51.500 in the war.

00:53:53.100 Could be a

00:53:53.820 problem.

00:53:55.100 It's impossible

00:53:55.940 to prove, I

00:53:56.660 would guess, because

00:53:57.380 we would just,

00:53:58.040 you know, deny

00:53:58.560 it and that

00:53:59.060 would be the

00:53:59.600 end of it.

00:54:00.540 But I don't

00:54:02.100 see the Ukrainians

00:54:03.020 being the drone

00:54:03.600 operators, I'm

00:54:04.340 just saying.

00:54:06.020 All right.

00:54:06.420 time is the

00:54:10.320 main variable.

00:54:11.060 We'll see who

00:54:11.540 starves first, the 0.64

00:54:12.660 Russian army or

00:54:14.500 the people in

00:54:15.960 Kiev.

00:54:16.780 And I think

00:54:17.420 that's going to

00:54:17.820 come down to

00:54:18.380 the biggest

00:54:19.240 thing.

00:54:24.520 And then

00:54:25.200 here's another

00:54:25.780 opinion that I

00:54:27.340 want to run by

00:54:27.980 you.

00:54:28.720 This is from

00:54:29.280 Deadbeat.

00:54:30.760 That's his

00:54:31.800 Twitter name,

00:54:32.480 Deadbeat.

00:54:32.960 He says,

00:54:35.240 imagine these

00:54:35.760 various actions

00:54:36.540 taken to annoy

00:54:37.440 the Russian

00:54:37.920 people, talking

00:54:38.700 about the

00:54:39.040 sanctions, are

00:54:40.300 going to do

00:54:40.840 anything but

00:54:41.340 unify them

00:54:42.080 against the

00:54:42.620 West.

00:54:43.280 What do you

00:54:43.700 think?

00:54:44.320 Do you think

00:54:44.780 the Russian

00:54:45.260 public will

00:54:48.700 side with

00:54:49.580 Putin because

00:54:50.320 they'll feel

00:54:51.020 attacked by the

00:54:51.960 whole world?

00:54:53.200 Or do you

00:54:53.880 think that the

00:54:54.340 Russian public

00:54:55.040 will want to

00:54:57.120 get rid of

00:54:57.520 Putin because

00:54:58.880 he's the

00:54:59.340 cause of all

00:55:00.020 their problems?

00:55:01.340 It could go

00:55:02.120 either way,

00:55:02.540 right?

00:55:03.840 It's easy to

00:55:04.720 imagine it

00:55:05.180 go either way.

00:55:06.180 But here's the

00:55:06.760 way I would

00:55:07.200 take it.

00:55:08.560 I see the

00:55:09.460 sanctions as a

00:55:10.220 communication tool

00:55:11.260 in addition to

00:55:13.580 being sanctions.

00:55:14.600 But that the

00:55:15.400 Russian public is

00:55:16.400 probably finding

00:55:17.120 out for the

00:55:17.760 first time what

00:55:19.260 the hell is going

00:55:19.980 on and who

00:55:20.940 their leader is.

00:55:22.620 So I think

00:55:23.820 people in other

00:55:24.600 countries may

00:55:25.200 have known who

00:55:25.780 Putin was in

00:55:27.060 terms of him

00:55:28.580 doing something

00:55:29.160 like this.

00:55:30.280 And may have

00:55:31.200 known what was

00:55:31.740 happening in

00:55:32.280 Ukraine, closer

00:55:34.040 to the truth.

00:55:35.440 But I don't

00:55:36.640 think the

00:55:37.000 Russian public

00:55:37.560 knew it.

00:55:38.700 And I think

00:55:39.120 it would be

00:55:39.860 one thing.

00:55:41.640 So here I'm

00:55:42.340 going to take

00:55:42.660 a side.

00:55:44.260 If one

00:55:45.180 country, let's

00:55:46.180 say the

00:55:46.460 United States,

00:55:47.540 had put

00:55:47.980 sanctions on

00:55:48.980 Russia, what

00:55:50.000 would the

00:55:50.300 Russian public's

00:55:51.300 view be?

00:55:52.780 Probably pro-Putin

00:55:54.080 because that

00:55:55.060 would feel like

00:55:55.560 one country

00:55:56.140 attacking their

00:55:56.780 country.

00:55:57.100 But what

00:55:58.020 happens if

00:55:58.640 almost all

00:55:59.900 the countries

00:56:00.420 in the world

00:56:01.160 vote against

00:56:02.600 you and

00:56:04.160 decide to

00:56:05.120 sanction?

00:56:05.820 What if all

00:56:06.820 the other

00:56:07.240 countries, even

00:56:07.900 poor Switzerland,

00:56:10.320 what if you

00:56:10.840 hear that

00:56:11.300 basically everybody

00:56:12.500 except the

00:56:13.160 worst countries

00:56:13.780 in the world

00:56:14.400 are against

00:56:16.620 you?

00:56:18.200 Then do you

00:56:19.200 say, wait a

00:56:19.760 minute, the

00:56:20.640 problem is

00:56:21.300 everybody in the

00:56:22.340 world is wrong

00:56:23.220 and Putin is

00:56:25.120 right while

00:56:26.620 you can't

00:56:27.100 eat?

00:56:28.520 Would that

00:56:28.960 be your

00:56:29.240 thought?

00:56:30.060 Would you

00:56:30.380 think, oh,

00:56:30.920 everybody in

00:56:31.780 the whole world,

00:56:32.560 they're all

00:56:32.900 wrong, but my

00:56:34.360 leader, he's

00:56:34.980 right, so I'll

00:56:35.560 back him.

00:56:37.000 I don't think

00:56:37.740 so.

00:56:38.580 I don't think

00:56:39.200 so.

00:56:39.520 I think when

00:56:40.020 you make it

00:56:40.480 everybody in

00:56:41.060 the world and

00:56:41.620 even China

00:56:42.200 barely has

00:56:42.940 your back,

00:56:44.360 I think the

00:56:45.360 Russian public

00:56:46.060 catches on.

00:56:47.360 So I would

00:56:47.820 see the

00:56:48.120 sanctions as a

00:56:48.940 communication

00:56:49.460 tool and a

00:56:50.900 way to frame

00:56:51.460 the situation

00:56:52.140 such that

00:56:53.940 the Russian

00:56:54.700 public is

00:56:55.940 going to

00:56:56.240 know what's

00:56:56.600 happening one

00:56:57.680 way or the

00:56:58.000 other.

00:57:00.860 Somebody says

00:57:01.560 India, China,

00:57:02.560 and Africa are

00:57:03.380 on Russia's

00:57:03.920 side.

00:57:04.180 India isn't 1.00

00:57:04.800 on Russia's

00:57:05.480 side.

00:57:06.620 I mean, I

00:57:06.980 don't know, but

00:57:07.860 I don't think

00:57:09.100 so.

00:57:14.240 The troll

00:57:16.480 activity is

00:57:17.320 just so

00:57:17.720 weak.

00:57:19.460 So weak.

00:57:20.320 there should

00:57:22.280 be some

00:57:22.560 kind of

00:57:22.800 troll.

00:57:23.120 I was just

00:57:23.520 reading one

00:57:24.060 of the

00:57:24.300 troll comments

00:57:25.060 on there.

00:57:26.440 Here are the

00:57:27.140 worst troll

00:57:28.040 comments.

00:57:29.700 Because one

00:57:30.380 of my cartoon

00:57:31.160 characters is

00:57:31.940 called the

00:57:32.300 pointy-haired

00:57:32.820 boss and he's

00:57:33.820 dumb.

00:57:35.240 The dumbest

00:57:36.340 criticism I

00:57:37.200 ever get is,

00:57:38.460 oh, I guess

00:57:39.220 Scott is really

00:57:40.360 the pointy-haired

00:57:41.380 boss.

00:57:42.300 Whoa.

00:57:44.340 And I think

00:57:45.080 to myself,

00:57:45.880 did you really

00:57:47.080 think nobody

00:57:47.700 said that after

00:57:48.580 33 years of

00:57:49.860 me being in

00:57:50.340 business?

00:57:51.200 Like, you

00:57:51.800 thought that

00:57:52.180 would be a

00:57:52.520 good addition

00:57:52.980 to the

00:57:53.480 conversation?

00:57:55.360 And now I

00:57:56.060 just saw

00:57:56.380 somebody in

00:57:56.820 the comments

00:57:57.200 say, Scott

00:57:58.420 wrote a book

00:57:59.040 called Loser

00:57:59.700 Think and

00:58:00.540 he didn't

00:58:00.960 realize that

00:58:01.700 his own

00:58:02.280 thinking was

00:58:03.160 Loser

00:58:03.620 Think.

00:58:04.460 Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha.

00:58:07.820 Seriously, you

00:58:09.880 can't troll better

00:58:10.660 than that?

00:58:12.640 Soylent Green?

00:58:14.700 The Matrix?

00:58:17.220 Why don't you just

00:58:18.460 do every NPC bumper

00:58:20.820 sticker frickin'

00:58:22.340 statement in the

00:58:22.980 world?

00:58:26.460 I could do a

00:58:27.440 micro lesson that

00:58:28.140 had to troll

00:58:28.520 better.

00:58:30.240 I don't want to

00:58:31.620 do that because

00:58:32.120 somebody used it

00:58:32.800 against me.

00:58:34.780 He's really

00:58:35.460 catbird.

00:58:36.780 Soylent Green

00:58:37.500 Matrix.

00:58:39.860 And the other

00:58:40.540 one is

00:58:40.940 Apologist.

00:58:43.320 If you want

00:58:44.060 to be the

00:58:44.500 lowest level

00:58:45.440 troll, call

00:58:46.300 somebody else

00:58:46.900 an apologist

00:58:47.500 just because

00:58:49.160 they have a

00:58:49.520 different opinion.

00:58:52.360 That is such

00:58:53.260 a low level

00:58:54.020 of criticism.

00:58:56.240 Here's the

00:58:56.800 other one

00:58:57.140 that's a low

00:58:57.660 level of

00:58:58.100 criticism.

00:58:58.980 Should have

00:58:59.420 happened sooner.

00:59:02.140 As I often

00:59:02.980 say, everything

00:59:04.260 good should have

00:59:05.060 happened sooner.

00:59:06.700 That's literally

00:59:07.380 saying nothing.

00:59:08.720 Yeah.

00:59:09.560 Yeah.

00:59:10.100 And who is

00:59:10.800 surprised?

00:59:11.960 And who didn't

00:59:12.820 already think that

00:59:14.000 the good thing

00:59:14.560 should have

00:59:14.940 happened sooner?

00:59:16.380 That's nothing.

00:59:23.280 Sycophant,

00:59:23.960 yeah.

00:59:24.220 All those words

00:59:24.860 are just NPC

00:59:25.480 words.

00:59:27.260 Maybe that's

00:59:27.820 what we should

00:59:28.360 call them instead

00:59:29.020 of trolls.

00:59:30.880 Oh, yeah.

00:59:32.860 Oh, this is

00:59:33.500 good.

00:59:33.760 Here's what

00:59:35.000 we're going to

00:59:35.320 do.

00:59:37.200 I think we

00:59:38.000 should stop

00:59:38.560 calling them

00:59:39.100 trolls because

00:59:39.820 trolls is kind

00:59:40.640 of cool.

00:59:41.660 People buy

00:59:42.320 troll dolls.

00:59:43.660 People watch

00:59:44.200 movies and

00:59:44.820 involve trolls

00:59:45.560 attacking hobbits.

00:59:47.660 Trolls are

00:59:48.280 kind of cool,

00:59:49.520 right?

00:59:50.300 Kind of cool.

00:59:52.040 But NPCs?

00:59:53.720 Not cool.

00:59:56.560 There are

00:59:57.380 definitely people

00:59:58.000 who call

00:59:58.400 themselves trolls

00:59:59.300 all the time.

01:00:00.940 They call

01:00:02.140 themselves trolls

01:00:02.820 in their own

01:00:03.440 profile.

01:00:04.220 I'm a troll.

01:00:05.660 Trolling since

01:00:06.480 1998 or whatever.

01:00:08.760 But nobody

01:00:09.500 calls themselves

01:00:10.120 an NPC.

01:00:11.520 Because an NPC

01:00:12.420 is like,

01:00:12.920 you really don't

01:00:13.440 matter.

01:00:14.780 But these

01:00:15.400 comments really

01:00:16.260 don't matter.

01:00:17.460 They're not useful

01:00:18.400 or insightful.

01:00:19.220 They're not even

01:00:19.640 insulting.

01:00:20.560 They don't even

01:00:21.100 do what a troll

01:00:21.820 is trying to do.

01:00:23.280 Even a troll is

01:00:24.120 trying to at least

01:00:24.660 get a reaction.

01:00:26.260 Right?

01:00:26.680 But the NPCs

01:00:27.740 can't even do that.

01:00:29.300 Soylent green.

01:00:29.920 Soylent green.

01:00:33.740 All right.

01:00:37.740 Yes,

01:00:38.300 for those of you

01:00:38.940 who don't know,

01:00:39.680 NPC means

01:00:40.620 a non-player

01:00:41.380 character.

01:00:42.340 Somebody in a

01:00:43.040 video game

01:00:43.680 who's not

01:00:44.220 central.

01:00:44.880 They're just

01:00:45.140 background

01:00:45.660 characters.

01:00:50.240 Hey,

01:00:50.880 who's the

01:00:51.180 hypnotist?

01:00:53.080 Stop that.

01:00:55.020 I see your

01:00:55.760 hypnosis

01:00:56.120 sentences.

01:00:59.920 An NPC

01:01:01.280 is seemingly

01:01:02.080 a human

01:01:02.640 that is unable

01:01:03.340 to think

01:01:03.880 objectively.

01:01:05.200 Well,

01:01:05.640 I would say

01:01:06.140 unable to do

01:01:07.040 anything but

01:01:07.680 reiterate bumper

01:01:08.680 sticker sayings.

01:01:10.380 So I would say

01:01:10.920 that the NPC

01:01:11.940 basically runs

01:01:14.400 on a program

01:01:15.020 of bumper

01:01:15.520 stickers.

01:01:16.580 They can only

01:01:17.020 say what,

01:01:19.060 depending on

01:01:20.500 what side you're

01:01:21.000 on,

01:01:21.140 they can only

01:01:21.540 say what

01:01:21.940 Rachel Maddow

01:01:22.780 said or what

01:01:23.460 Hannity said

01:01:24.140 or what

01:01:24.580 somebody else

01:01:25.000 said.

01:01:26.660 Worse than

01:01:27.320 Watergate.

01:01:27.800 Yes.

01:01:29.160 NPC.

01:01:30.660 All right,

01:01:31.140 that's all I

01:01:31.460 got for now.

01:01:32.220 I think you'll

01:01:32.760 agree that this

01:01:33.480 is the best

01:01:34.020 live stream you

01:01:35.480 have ever seen

01:01:36.180 in the entire

01:01:36.940 world.

01:01:38.040 And the only

01:01:39.020 thing that you

01:01:39.520 can say about

01:01:40.040 it is, I

01:01:41.100 imagine even

01:01:41.740 tomorrow will

01:01:42.360 be even better

01:01:42.920 because it

01:01:43.800 probably will

01:01:44.480 be.

01:01:45.320 Now,

01:01:46.340 watch all of

01:01:48.540 the news

01:01:48.920 today and

01:01:51.680 see if you

01:01:52.420 get a better

01:01:53.260 take on the

01:01:54.720 Ukraine

01:01:55.040 situation.

01:01:55.660 now again,

01:01:57.620 I want to be

01:01:58.200 very careful

01:01:58.760 and say I

01:02:00.220 don't compare

01:02:00.840 myself to the

01:02:01.580 experts, but

01:02:02.900 we do have an

01:02:03.600 expert problem

01:02:04.540 in this country

01:02:05.200 of them

01:02:06.520 continuously being

01:02:07.880 wrong.

01:02:09.980 I'm not making

01:02:10.900 that up.

01:02:12.280 Can you back

01:02:13.020 me that the

01:02:14.420 experts are

01:02:15.000 having a

01:02:15.460 terrible year?

01:02:16.900 I mean, I'm

01:02:17.360 not imagining

01:02:18.000 that, am I?

01:02:19.020 It looks like

01:02:19.640 they're having a

01:02:20.060 bad year.

01:02:21.300 Now, part of

01:02:22.120 it is because we

01:02:22.920 notice when

01:02:23.620 they're wrong.

01:02:24.060 When the

01:02:25.660 experts do

01:02:26.220 everything right,

01:02:26.880 we don't

01:02:27.160 notice.

01:02:28.280 But I do

01:02:28.860 think that they

01:02:29.440 got more

01:02:29.860 wrong this

01:02:30.480 time.

01:02:31.440 We all agree

01:02:32.060 that the

01:02:32.340 experts are

01:02:32.800 usually right.

01:02:33.840 Usually right.

01:02:35.300 But when

01:02:35.760 there's a

01:02:36.340 fog of war

01:02:36.940 situation, I

01:02:37.740 think it

01:02:38.020 just all goes

01:02:38.780 to hell. 0.85

01:02:40.020 That's my

01:02:40.440 take.

01:02:46.840 That's a good

01:02:47.540 comment on

01:02:48.320 locals.

01:02:50.020 The comment

01:02:50.680 I'll read it

01:02:51.300 is that this

01:02:52.100 was an

01:02:52.460 excellent show

01:02:53.120 with a

01:02:53.460 handsome

01:02:53.720 host.

01:02:55.080 And that's

01:02:56.420 no NPC

01:02:56.980 there.

01:02:57.820 That's

01:02:58.100 somebody who's

01:02:58.620 thought it

01:02:58.960 through.

01:02:59.820 And on that

01:03:00.300 note, I'm

01:03:02.040 going to sign

01:03:02.960 off on YouTube

01:03:03.460 and I'll see

01:03:04.020 you tomorrow,

01:03:04.520 YouTube.

01:03:04.720 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 03, 2022

Episode 1671 Scott Adams： Talking About Ukraine, Kanye, And Why Movies Are All Bad

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