Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1672 Scott Adams： We Can Probably Predict How Ukraine Turns Out At This Point

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and congratulations for making it here, whether you're live or

00:00:11.660 potentially your time delayed. Still, it's quite an accomplishment, and I hope the rest of your

00:00:19.220 day goes as swimmingly as this did, because you nailed it. You nailed it. And if you'd like to

00:00:24.940 take it up a level, you probably do. You seem like that kind of people. You're the kind of people who

00:00:31.220 are not satisfied with a normal life. No, you need the simultaneous sip. And all you need for that

00:00:37.020 is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chelsea, a canteen, a joker, a flask, a vessel of any kind,

00:00:42.120 filling with your favorite beverage. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:50.060 It's called the dopamine hit of the day. Everybody's calling it that. And it's a

00:00:56.780 simultaneous sip, and it's happening now. Go.

00:01:04.100 Ashlyn, Oregon, says hi. Well, hello, Ashlyn. That is so good of you.

00:01:10.280 Well, today I lost all respect for myself. And I know, I know you were already there. I'm just

00:01:23.880 catching up with the rest of you. But I have to say, as recently as last week, I still maintained

00:01:30.440 a shred of respect for myself. May not have been warranted, but it was there. As of today,

00:01:39.580 I can confess that I've lost all respect for myself. And I welcome you to join me if you're

00:01:46.020 not already there. And here's the reason. I feel like we're all monetizing the misery of the Ukrainian

00:01:55.220 people, as well as the Russian people at this point. And, you know, it starts out, you're just

00:02:05.560 talking about it because it's the important thing to talk about. Am I right? Like in the

00:02:12.700 beginning, it makes complete sense. It's morally and ethically appropriate. People want to be

00:02:18.700 informed. But then it kind of quickly morphs into just merging with your business model.

00:02:26.400 You know, because my part of what I do here is monetized by ads on YouTube. And I'm thinking,

00:02:35.260 you know, I got here innocently. But I think I drifted into this situation where I, like billions

00:02:45.000 of people around the earth already, are sort of dehumanizing the Ukrainians. Almost looking at it

00:02:52.240 like it's a movie or it's an entertainment or something. And I'm not joking. I feel actually

00:02:59.320 disgusted with myself. And I'm not joking. If you want to feel the same way about me,

00:03:09.320 I can't talk you out of it. Because here we are. But what do we do about it? Do I just stop talking

00:03:18.020 about it? I mean, I'm not sure that's really a solution. So we press on. And I guess I'll try to

00:03:27.920 be helpful. I don't know if I can find some way to be helpful to somebody. I guess I'll flail around for

00:03:36.040 that. But I just want you to know I'm terribly uncomfortable talking about something so horrible

00:03:44.660 like in the form of entertainment. I don't know what to do about it, honestly. Because I don't think

00:03:52.600 you want me to stop or you wouldn't be here. And I don't feel like stopping. But it's terribly wrong.

00:03:58.780 So if somebody comes up with a better way to handle this, please let me know. All right?

00:04:05.500 Here's a little news bubble test I gave people on Twitter. I think many of you passed it. But I was

00:04:12.080 wondering what people outside of your bubbles would say. And here's what I said. Now, because I don't

00:04:20.900 want to get banned from YouTube, I don't have to worry about locals, of course. But I don't want

00:04:27.380 to be banned by YouTube. So I'm going to say it this way. This week, we heard reports. I'm not saying

00:04:36.400 it's true. But we heard reports that there were election irregularities in Wisconsin. And

00:04:44.520 if those turn out to be true, then Trump was probably right about the 2020 election. Now,

00:04:52.680 we also heard about the Zuckerberg money that went into the battleground states. We heard about

00:04:57.960 recently that some of that looks like it was illegal, which actually would look like a rigged

00:05:05.360 election in some people's definition of what that would mean. So in the last week, Trump has been

00:05:13.440 turned, we can't say for sure. But certainly the reporting has turned to more like he's right

00:05:23.180 than he's wrong. The biggest thing in the country for the last year and a half, and the entire

00:05:30.740 narrative turned directions. And I don't think most people heard about it. Do you? How many Democrats

00:05:39.420 do you think know that Wisconsin has got a lot of questions to answer? And that Zuckerberg

00:05:46.720 is being accused, or at least the money, you know, whatever happened, I don't know the individuals,

00:05:53.000 but at least how the money was used looks like a crime at this point. Hasn't been proven in

00:06:00.100 court. But the reporting is just sort of, I don't know, it's kind of weird, isn't it?

00:06:06.700 Now, we also see that there was more reporting in the past week that Trump was right about climate

00:06:15.380 change being a hoax. Now, not in the sense that the science is necessarily wrong, because I think

00:06:22.180 the science probably gets at least the part about humans warming the planet. I think they probably

00:06:29.680 get that right, just so you know where I'm at in this conversation, right? I think they get that

00:06:33.700 right. I don't think they get right how bad it will be, because they can't predict technological

00:06:40.200 changes and all kinds of stuff like that. So I think they'll be terribly wrong about the outcome

00:06:45.260 of it. But I think the world is getting warmer. Just seeing, you know, that's just background

00:06:50.060 for this conversation. But we learned that a lot of the opinion about nuclear power was driven

00:07:02.940 by Russian propaganda. So a lot of the fear of nuclear power literally was funded by Russians

00:07:13.760 so that they could sell more energy and we wouldn't become energy independent with nuclear

00:07:19.020 energy. So indeed, you know, I'm not going to say Trump was right when he said it was a Chinese

00:07:26.040 hoax, because who knows what he was including in that. But I think the reporting should at least

00:07:30.960 acknowledge that the way the way the country is responding to climate change is literally based

00:07:38.640 on a hoax, a Russian hoax about the dangers of nuclear, and that the Russians were pushing

00:07:47.280 everybody to go green, because if you went green, you still needed a lot of oil and gas. So the greeter

00:07:56.580 they could make you the more dependent you would be on gas and oil, which is so cynical and so right

00:08:02.260 at the same time. Anyway, and I didn't see much of that in the general news. And certainly Trump was

00:08:13.880 completely right about energy policy. We do see that in the news on the right, but I don't think the people on

00:08:18.580 the left are hearing it. Do you think Democrats are hearing, you know, if Trump had gotten what he

00:08:26.020 wanted, which was energy independence from, you know, the Russian oil, we'd at least be moving in that

00:08:33.380 direction a lot faster. But you don't see him getting credit for that. So the number of things that Trump

00:08:39.540 was completely right about, or so right that you need to at least update the story, right? He's not

00:08:47.000 completely right about some of this stuff. Yet. Who knows? But he's right enough that you do need to

00:08:56.600 update, I think, if you're being honest about it. But the news bubbles will keep that from happening.

00:09:03.120 And of course, we all like to play WWTHD, which is what would Trump have done? What would Trump

00:09:12.020 have done with this Ukraine situation? Well, we don't know. But definitely Putin and Trump had a

00:09:19.880 different relationship. And Trump was definitely a dealmaker and a practical person and an anti-war

00:09:27.960 person. I feel like we would have been in a different place. Maybe worse, right? You can't

00:09:35.560 really predict these things. But I feel like Trump would have said something like, if the only issue

00:09:45.120 is you don't want NATO in Ukraine, if that's the only issue, I'm going to call your bluff.

00:09:52.560 I'll call your bluff. And say, yeah, we won't put NATO in Ukraine. And then see if Putin withdraws

00:10:01.560 his forces. Because that was the obvious play. The obvious play was to just call his bluff and say,

00:10:08.900 yeah, actually, now that we're surrounded by your entire military, okay, we will sign a document

00:10:16.260 that says that Ukraine will never be in NATO. And it wouldn't mean anything, because you could

00:10:22.340 always just tear it up if you change your mind later. We could have, do you think that Trump would

00:10:28.060 not have thought of the idea of giving Putin nothing but a piece of paper just to see if it calls his

00:10:35.420 bluff and that he withdraws his military? He might. I mean, it was the obvious play. So obvious.

00:10:44.060 Yes. And, you know, I think Trump would have done it. But of course, we, you know, when you're

00:10:49.140 playing, what would Trump have done? It's just guessing. Nobody knows that. Now, the other

00:10:55.320 possibility is that Trump would have used the same trick that Putin is using, which is fear

00:11:02.780 persuasion. You know, I've got some nukes. Yeah, maybe, maybe you better not be helping Ukraine

00:11:09.220 because I've got these Russian nukes. Have I mentioned that I have nukes? So Putin is doing

00:11:15.780 a really good, you know, job of persuading. And so far, our response to that has been what

00:11:22.720 is being called the adult response, where we're confirming that we're not escalating any of

00:11:29.540 our nuclear alerts. So instead of meeting him, you know, nuclear tit for tat, we're like,

00:11:36.540 oh, no, no, you don't have to worry about that. We're not even playing that game.

00:11:41.240 That might be, that might be exactly the right way to play this. It might be. I don't know that

00:11:47.280 Trump would have played it this way. I think because Trump always doesn't, whatever you think

00:11:52.080 he's going to do, he ends up doing something different, which is part of, part of why he was

00:11:56.900 effective at a lot of stuff. I think Trump would have offered to annihilate the entire Russian army

00:12:04.000 and he would have sold the threat. I think he would have sold it. And he would have sold it

00:12:12.700 because you're never quite sure what Trump would do. Now, I feel safe that he wouldn't do crazy war-like

00:12:19.320 things because that was so opposite his personality. He was very anti-war. But I definitely think he

00:12:27.500 could have convinced Russia that he would have done it. And I think there's still plenty of,

00:12:32.880 you know, let's say plenty of runway to back off from the nuclear war. You know, if the threat

00:12:38.980 didn't work, you still had, you know, it wasn't like Putin was going to launch. So I don't know.

00:12:47.280 I think a dealmaker could have made this work. A better persuader could have made something work.

00:12:55.080 Somebody who had a, who had shown more respect to Putin in the past might have come in handy.

00:13:01.860 This might have been exactly the time that somebody had more of a, let's say, let's say an ego-free

00:13:09.140 relationship with Putin. It might have been exactly the right person in the right time. You never know.

00:13:14.400 You never know. I'm not going to claim that Trump would have done a better job. We don't know that.

00:13:19.200 But it would have looked different. I think we could say that for sure. And since what we're doing now

00:13:24.480 doesn't seem to be working, I don't know that doing it differently would have been worse.

00:13:31.420 Maybe it just would have been another thing that didn't work. You never know.

00:13:37.700 So there's some fake news about Lindsey Graham today. So Lindsey Graham, I guess,

00:13:44.240 called for the Russian people to take out their own leader, presumably through assassination.

00:13:53.720 Some in the social media sphere are framing that as Lindsey Graham calling for outside powers

00:14:02.000 to maybe assassinate Putin, which would be a big problem.

00:14:06.580 But he didn't say that, which would be crazy. He did say that the Russian people might have to take

00:14:14.940 care of it and it's the only way out, which is actually just a statement of fact. It's persuasion

00:14:20.680 because you can tell that he's trying to put that idea in their heads.

00:14:25.380 So I think anybody who... I don't know. I didn't have the same bad reaction to this that a lot of people did.

00:14:32.140 Did you? How many of you think that Lindsey Graham, if you judge this only from a persuasion

00:14:40.140 perspective, that he just wants to put that seed of a thought in the Russian public?

00:14:48.040 Mistake or not a mistake? What do you think?

00:14:53.100 Mistake or not a mistake?

00:14:54.500 Mistake. I think most people are saying mistake, right?

00:14:58.760 I'm going to say unclear.

00:15:02.560 I'm going to give this one a fog of war, gray area mark.

00:15:06.720 Because, first of all,

00:15:09.000 I know you don't like everything that Lindsey Graham's ever done.

00:15:12.920 But can we agree he's reasonably smart?

00:15:16.820 He understands persuasion,

00:15:18.600 for example.

00:15:20.340 I think he does.

00:15:21.500 But I don't think that this cost anything.

00:15:28.380 And it might have produced something.

00:15:30.700 So I think that if he says,

00:15:33.040 hey, we should, you know,

00:15:34.620 put this little idea in the Russian public's mind,

00:15:37.940 it does at least make the

00:15:40.920 strategy of the United States

00:15:42.660 make a little bit more sense.

00:15:44.500 You know, keeping the pressure on the Russian people

00:15:46.620 until the Russian people take care of it.

00:15:48.260 So at least that would be an integrated, coherent strategy.

00:15:52.040 If you take out the part

00:15:53.640 where the Russian people

00:15:55.460 have to change their own government

00:15:56.880 to get out of their own pain,

00:15:59.340 then what we're doing

00:16:00.600 doesn't make a lot of sense, does it?

00:16:02.860 You almost have to complete the whole picture

00:16:05.040 to be honest about it.

00:16:06.720 So in one sense,

00:16:07.680 I think Lindsey Graham was just being honest.

00:16:10.500 The sanctions are not about changing Putin's mind.

00:16:13.680 The sanctions are about changing the public's mind.

00:16:16.200 And the public will change Putin's mind

00:16:18.500 one way or another.

00:16:20.820 I don't think that's likely to happen, frankly.

00:16:23.600 Do you?

00:16:25.880 What?

00:16:26.820 Some...

00:16:27.300 Oh, damn it, you derailed me.

00:16:29.620 I just saw a question on YouTube.

00:16:31.820 What if Trump and Putin agreed to meet?

00:16:37.360 Best idea I've ever heard.

00:16:39.460 Not a chance.

00:16:40.880 As long as Biden's president,

00:16:42.700 that's not going to happen.

00:16:43.480 But it would be,

00:16:45.940 I think it could work.

00:16:49.260 Am I crazy?

00:16:51.120 Well, yeah, I am.

00:16:53.160 Crazy and uninformed.

00:16:56.580 But the thing that Trump brings to every situation

00:17:00.660 is shaking the box.

00:17:03.240 No matter where he goes,

00:17:05.640 you start thinking about the whole situation differently

00:17:08.200 as soon as you add that variable,

00:17:11.100 the Trump variable.

00:17:11.900 So if our situation is that we're stuck,

00:17:16.000 everybody's trapped,

00:17:17.880 and the only logical outcome of everybody being trapped

00:17:21.700 in their position

00:17:22.420 is that lots of Ukrainian citizens get killed,

00:17:26.540 that's sort of where we are.

00:17:27.660 What is the best strategy

00:17:30.180 when everybody is locked in their positions of doom?

00:17:34.480 Shake the box.

00:17:36.400 Shake the box.

00:17:37.080 You don't know what you'll get,

00:17:38.740 so that's dangerous.

00:17:40.660 But it might be better than doing nothing

00:17:43.160 if you know that you're locked into a position of doom.

00:17:47.440 Yeah, maybe you don't shake it so hard.

00:17:49.300 But I'm going to say that Lindsey Graham's call

00:17:55.800 for the Russian people

00:17:57.060 to take care of their own government

00:17:59.680 is really just a statement of the obvious,

00:18:03.180 that that's really the point of the sanctions.

00:18:05.200 Because nobody thinks that Putin himself

00:18:07.960 is going to change things, do they?

00:18:11.280 Do they think Putin's going to say,

00:18:12.520 oh, look at my suffering country.

00:18:15.140 I think I'll help them out.

00:18:17.520 I mean, I do think he probably has empathy

00:18:19.100 for his own country.

00:18:20.400 Like, I'm not so brainwashed

00:18:23.240 that I think Putin doesn't love his own country

00:18:25.620 or the people in it.

00:18:27.120 I think he does.

00:18:29.280 All right.

00:18:33.820 So I'm going to give Lindsey Graham

00:18:35.520 a passing grade on this.

00:18:39.680 I know this is going to be unpopular.

00:18:41.400 But I think he didn't say anything

00:18:43.500 that isn't obvious.

00:18:45.380 He did complete the strategy

00:18:47.300 from why the sanctions could work.

00:18:50.040 I don't think they will.

00:18:51.320 But at least it gives you a path that they might.

00:18:54.780 It might make things worse.

00:18:56.680 I'm not even saying it's a good strategy

00:18:58.380 to change leadership.

00:19:00.640 You get somebody worse,

00:19:02.040 maybe the nuclear weapons become unstable.

00:19:04.680 I mean, it could be really, really bad.

00:19:08.500 But at least it's consistent.

00:19:11.400 So the law of unintentional consequences

00:19:14.260 is at play again.

00:19:15.980 Elon Musk issued a warning on Twitter

00:19:18.960 that Starlink, the system that he has provided

00:19:22.520 to the Ukrainians so that they could have

00:19:24.940 some communication,

00:19:26.540 is now the only non-Russian communication system

00:19:29.380 that's still working in some parts of Ukraine.

00:19:32.800 Not all of it, but in some parts.

00:19:34.140 And he warns that if that's the only communication system

00:19:38.620 being used,

00:19:39.680 it can be identified digitally and targeted.

00:19:44.000 And he's literally saying,

00:19:45.700 don't stand near one.

00:19:48.380 Did you hear that?

00:19:50.520 Elon Musk, who provided these Starlink,

00:19:53.860 the ground-based components,

00:19:56.700 he says, don't let people stand near them

00:19:58.980 because they're probably going to attract missiles.

00:20:00.780 I didn't see that common.

00:20:05.940 Did you?

00:20:07.360 So then the other thing that I would worry about

00:20:09.760 is I don't know how hackable it is,

00:20:12.620 but even Musk seemed to think that, you know,

00:20:16.640 everything's hackable, I guess.

00:20:18.780 So what happens if all of the vital communication

00:20:23.620 that the Ukrainian military is doing,

00:20:25.560 what if it's over one network

00:20:28.280 where all of the hackers can concentrate

00:20:31.900 all of their hacking,

00:20:34.000 and do you think Russia already can hear

00:20:36.380 every communication of the Ukrainian resistance?

00:20:40.240 If the only thing they have to use is Starlink,

00:20:43.780 doesn't Russia know exactly what they're saying by now?

00:20:46.720 Or is it not hackable in that fashion?

00:20:49.600 Maybe it's hackable if you want to take it down,

00:20:51.340 but I don't know if it's hackable in the encryption sense.

00:20:56.240 I don't know.

00:20:57.740 So that's the law of unintentional consequences.

00:21:00.680 It could be the Starlink.

00:21:02.840 I'm not saying this will happen,

00:21:05.160 but the Starlink could be the thing

00:21:08.000 that finishes the resistance.

00:21:10.400 It could be the thing that saves them.

00:21:13.660 But even Musk is saying, watch out,

00:21:16.220 you know, this could work the other way.

00:21:18.160 I take that pretty seriously.

00:21:19.440 All right, Rasmussen did a poll asking American adults

00:21:24.440 if they think the Russian invasion of Ukraine

00:21:27.420 is likely to hurt the American economy,

00:21:30.540 and three-quarters of American adults think it would.

00:21:34.540 What do you think?

00:21:36.300 Let's do short-term and long-term.

00:21:38.360 Short-term's easy.

00:21:40.280 Short-term, it hurts the American economy.

00:21:42.980 Everybody agrees with that, right?

00:21:44.800 Basically, everybody's economy is going to hurt.

00:21:47.260 There will be individual companies that maybe make money,

00:21:50.180 but everybody's economy is going to hurt.

00:21:52.920 Now, you can't be a good economist

00:21:55.980 if you only look at the short-term.

00:21:58.180 What about the long-term?

00:22:00.960 What if the outcome of this

00:22:04.480 is that Russia gets bled dry economically

00:22:07.540 by trying to hold and control Ukraine,

00:22:11.040 which looks almost impossible at this point?

00:22:12.880 I mean, they can conquer it,

00:22:15.000 but to really keep it pacified is going to be so expensive.

00:22:18.280 I don't know how they'll do it.

00:22:20.540 Now, at the same time, they've got the sanctions,

00:22:22.600 but they've got the workarounds.

00:22:24.100 We don't know if the workarounds will beat the sanctions

00:22:26.120 or if new sanctions will beat the workaround.

00:22:29.340 It's sort of a case of good pitching beats good hitting,

00:22:33.000 and vice versa.

00:22:34.360 So probably that's going to be a back-and-forth for a while.

00:22:37.340 But in the long run,

00:22:41.720 what if what happens in the long run

00:22:43.500 is it makes Russia less competitive?

00:22:50.520 That could happen.

00:22:52.280 What if it makes Russia just a smaller country,

00:22:55.480 smaller economy,

00:22:57.300 because they just can't break out of the sanctions enough to grow?

00:23:02.760 They might survive, but maybe they can't grow.

00:23:05.180 Well, that would defund their military eventually,

00:23:09.340 and they would become less of a threat over time.

00:23:14.280 Right?

00:23:15.440 So could it be that our people in, let's say, the CIA,

00:23:22.900 I'm sure they've done every kind of prediction

00:23:25.600 and estimate about this.

00:23:27.480 Do you think our CIA's,

00:23:29.340 whoever does their economic predictions,

00:23:31.340 because they must have somebody doing that,

00:23:32.720 do you think the CIA's economists

00:23:35.300 believe that this is a good long-term investment

00:23:39.940 to basically make sure that Russia gets bled dry in the war

00:23:46.300 instead of just letting them win easily?

00:23:48.480 Because we could have gotten out of the way.

00:23:50.860 NATO could have not let weapons in,

00:23:53.860 could have not supported it,

00:23:55.220 and it would have probably been a quicker job

00:23:58.900 and, I don't know, worse for the Ukrainian people,

00:24:03.320 maybe not worse, I don't know, can't tell.

00:24:07.540 But I'm not so sure.

00:24:12.760 If I had to guess,

00:24:14.280 and I would remind any new people here,

00:24:16.780 I do have a degree in economics.

00:24:18.900 I've got an MBA from a top school.

00:24:21.480 But, you know, your qualifications

00:24:24.560 aren't going to be really too helpful

00:24:26.700 in doing this kind of analysis,

00:24:30.000 because there's no data you could rely on,

00:24:32.700 and none at all.

00:24:34.100 So you're really just guessing

00:24:35.700 based on general kinds of, you know, truths,

00:24:40.580 general truth.

00:24:41.620 If you're at war,

00:24:42.980 you're probably not going to prosper as much.

00:24:45.160 You know, it's sort of a general truth.

00:24:46.580 I feel in general

00:24:49.220 that this could cripple Russia

00:24:52.140 for decades economically.

00:24:56.740 And maybe the U.S. gets some advantage from that.

00:24:59.260 Maybe our energy company is something.

00:25:01.280 I don't know.

00:25:02.280 But I don't think it would have been a good idea

00:25:05.040 as a purely economic investment,

00:25:06.920 but it's unknown how that's going to go for us.

00:25:09.640 But let me give you an update on Ukraine.

00:25:11.480 Here's what's new,

00:25:12.180 and I'm going to prime you for my predictions to come.

00:25:14.560 Because I think we know enough

00:25:16.640 that we can make a reasonable prediction

00:25:18.980 about the endgame.

00:25:20.760 What do you think?

00:25:22.300 Before I get to my predictions,

00:25:25.280 do you think we know enough now

00:25:26.980 where we can kind of reasonably assume

00:25:30.160 what the endgame looks like?

00:25:36.340 Most of you say no.

00:25:37.640 Okay, good.

00:25:38.440 I want to change your mind.

00:25:41.600 Well, some of you say yes, actually.

00:25:43.220 No, it's a mix.

00:25:45.560 All right, we'll see how we do.

00:25:46.680 But here's some...

00:25:47.600 I'm going to prime you first.

00:25:50.080 So I guess Putin is securing land bridges

00:25:52.820 and ocean access,

00:25:54.800 which is a, you know,

00:25:56.220 sort of a war talk way of saying

00:25:58.480 that Putin's military is sort of surrounding

00:26:02.700 and enveloping everything that matters.

00:26:05.060 So while he's not crushing everything in Ukraine right away,

00:26:11.020 he is basically almost already surrounded

00:26:15.940 everything that matters.

00:26:19.400 So that's not good.

00:26:22.260 There was an attack on a nuclear plant.

00:26:25.100 The fire was not part of the...

00:26:27.100 It was a related building,

00:26:28.760 but it wasn't critical.

00:26:31.020 It sounded worse than it was,

00:26:32.560 but the Russians have control of that now.

00:26:34.800 Apparently, that's a war crime.

00:26:36.760 Attacking a nuclear facility is literally a war crime

00:26:39.560 and could have been really, really bad,

00:26:43.700 depending on what happened there.

00:26:44.960 But it wasn't so far.

00:26:50.340 Let's see.

00:26:51.080 What else is due?

00:26:53.400 We've got...

00:26:55.220 Here's the persuasion war update.

00:26:57.960 Would you say that Zelensky is still winning

00:27:01.140 the persuasion war?

00:27:03.700 I'd say so.

00:27:05.640 I mean, he's doing a great job.

00:27:07.920 I don't think anything we're seeing out of Ukraine is real.

00:27:12.160 Like, it's...

00:27:13.040 All of the anecdotes are just not real.

00:27:16.540 And everything you think about Zelensky,

00:27:19.800 you know, he's starting to look like a hero,

00:27:21.920 angel kind of a creature.

00:27:23.380 You know what that's making me think?

00:27:29.180 I'm starting to suspect the opposite.

00:27:32.980 Isn't Ukraine supposed to be

00:27:34.600 the most corrupt government?

00:27:37.920 Or one of them?

00:27:38.780 It's like one of the most corrupt governments.

00:27:40.760 Now, Zelensky was probably an anti-corruption guy, right?

00:27:44.140 But are there any reports

00:27:45.840 that Zelensky himself is dirty?

00:27:50.100 Because I've never seen one.

00:27:51.420 Have you?

00:27:51.700 I've never seen any suggestion

00:27:54.280 that he personally was corrupt.

00:27:58.140 But there always is.

00:27:59.340 I guess every leader gets that.

00:28:05.160 Okay, I'm seeing some people say yes.

00:28:07.400 What are the odds

00:28:08.620 that it's just two corrupt regimes

00:28:12.620 fighting each other

00:28:13.560 and we should just get out of the way?

00:28:16.920 That's one way to look at it.

00:28:18.200 That's not my opinion,

00:28:19.180 but that's one way to look at it.

00:28:20.580 All right.

00:28:23.140 So Zelensky,

00:28:24.740 I don't know that he's the angel hero

00:28:27.060 that he's made out to be,

00:28:29.200 but he's definitely winning the persuasion war.

00:28:31.260 Just on the basis of persuasion,

00:28:33.540 he's totally selling the story.

00:28:36.420 He seems to be rallying the country

00:28:38.780 to put up a fight.

00:28:40.860 So I guess he's completely succeeding there.

00:28:45.480 Interestingly,

00:28:47.080 the biggest push against at least the U.S.

00:28:51.140 provoking any escalation of a war,

00:28:54.060 especially with U.S. assets or people,

00:28:57.100 are the independence on social media.

00:29:01.200 Are you following the...

00:29:02.860 You know all the names.

00:29:04.960 You follow a lot of the same people.

00:29:06.100 But there are some big voices on social media

00:29:09.940 who are pushing very hard

00:29:12.200 to not be dragged into war

00:29:14.820 by stupid narratives and fake news

00:29:17.320 and every other provocation.

00:29:20.000 And I feel like that is such a valuable...

00:29:23.800 Yeah.

00:29:24.420 Cernovich, Greenwald,

00:29:26.440 Pasabek,

00:29:28.000 Tucker Carlson.

00:29:29.420 Yeah.

00:29:29.860 So those are the ones you're seeing the most.

00:29:35.820 Somebody says,

00:29:36.780 Jesse Kelly,

00:29:37.840 Jimmy Dore,

00:29:39.400 Barnes.

00:29:40.600 Yeah.

00:29:41.780 Colonel McGregor.

00:29:43.480 Yeah, so you're seeing lots of people

00:29:45.080 pushing for no war.

00:29:46.140 And I think that's pretty healthy.

00:29:50.320 But here's one way to look at it.

00:29:52.980 If Putin is right

00:29:54.300 that historically speaking,

00:29:57.060 Ukraine and Russia are the same country,

00:29:59.860 did we just provoke

00:30:02.080 or trick Putin

00:30:03.820 into attacking his own country?

00:30:07.320 Because he thinks Ukraine is his own country.

00:30:10.600 He's actually at war with his own country.

00:30:14.120 And I think...

00:30:15.600 I mean, that's obviously not what

00:30:17.560 the Ukrainians believe

00:30:19.500 or the United Nations.

00:30:21.380 So there's a lot of people

00:30:22.540 on the other side of that conversation,

00:30:23.980 like almost everybody.

00:30:25.000 But...

00:30:26.000 It is an absurd situation

00:30:30.020 that he actually is at war

00:30:31.600 with his own country.

00:30:32.700 And I believe that the West

00:30:34.040 provoked him to do that,

00:30:35.860 which is...

00:30:37.400 I don't know.

00:30:37.840 You have to wonder

00:30:38.380 how much of that was intentional.

00:30:43.980 So we hear that NATO

00:30:45.100 rejected air cover.

00:30:46.360 One way to look at that is,

00:30:50.520 hey, NATO definitely doesn't want

00:30:52.680 any part of this war with Russia.

00:30:54.640 That's not how I interpret it.

00:30:57.460 Here's how I interpret

00:30:58.780 NATO rejects providing air cover.

00:31:02.220 I do think that's real

00:31:03.560 and that they will continue

00:31:05.000 to reject air cover.

00:31:07.360 But I think their public pronouncement of it

00:31:10.060 is air cover for the fact

00:31:12.260 that they're already way too involved.

00:31:14.480 If you know what I mean.

00:31:16.860 For some reason,

00:31:18.440 Russia and the United States

00:31:19.600 have evolved this idea

00:31:21.000 that you can do anything to each other

00:31:23.860 if you can lie about it successfully

00:31:26.400 and fool at least somebody.

00:31:30.700 Like, it doesn't even have to be a good lie.

00:31:33.160 It's like, cyber attacks?

00:31:35.840 I don't know what you're talking about.

00:31:38.720 What's cyber attacks?

00:31:42.200 I'd like to see that proof.

00:31:44.480 Right?

00:31:45.640 So then the cyber attacks

00:31:46.840 are going full strength

00:31:47.940 probably both directions, right?

00:31:50.240 How about spies?

00:31:53.440 Spies?

00:31:55.500 What?

00:31:56.740 You think the U.S. has spies

00:31:58.960 in our embassy in Russia?

00:32:00.560 What?

00:32:00.800 You think the Russians have spies?

00:32:03.440 What?

00:32:04.640 So we just do this stupid thing

00:32:06.860 where if you can lie about it successfully,

00:32:10.300 it doesn't count as war somehow.

00:32:12.460 Like, how did we drift

00:32:15.060 into that stupid situation?

00:32:17.740 But, so here's something

00:32:20.120 that nobody could sell,

00:32:22.240 which is if NATO provided air cover

00:32:25.260 for Ukraine.

00:32:26.360 You couldn't sell that

00:32:27.860 as anything else, am I right?

00:32:30.300 It can't be sold

00:32:31.360 as something else.

00:32:33.580 It would 100% be reported

00:32:35.740 by all observers

00:32:37.460 all observers

00:32:38.380 that NATO had provided air cover

00:32:40.460 if it happened.

00:32:42.020 So that's one they can't sell.

00:32:44.540 So they say that one publicly.

00:32:47.000 That's our position.

00:32:48.640 And it sort of draws attention

00:32:50.400 away from the fact

00:32:51.400 that somebody's providing

00:32:53.880 all this material support

00:32:55.320 and intelligence

00:32:56.020 and weapons,

00:32:57.640 logistics,

00:32:58.460 transport,

00:32:59.200 sales.

00:32:59.580 I don't think those...

00:33:01.460 I haven't heard anybody

00:33:03.260 else say this,

00:33:04.660 but I don't think

00:33:05.600 Ukrainians are operating

00:33:06.900 all those drones.

00:33:09.540 I'm sorry.

00:33:10.940 I just don't believe it.

00:33:13.200 I believe that

00:33:14.180 however many

00:33:15.220 Ukrainian drone pilots

00:33:17.620 there ever have been,

00:33:19.600 that the number of drones

00:33:21.060 has now increased

00:33:22.260 beyond the number

00:33:23.140 of trained

00:33:23.720 Ukrainian drone pilots.

00:33:26.020 What do they do?

00:33:29.100 Wait until they're trained?

00:33:31.640 I don't think so.

00:33:33.860 I think that on paper

00:33:35.280 they just say,

00:33:36.060 okay,

00:33:36.340 you're resigning from NATO

00:33:37.700 and now you're Ukrainian

00:33:40.060 for a week.

00:33:41.540 And then the same guy

00:33:42.480 who was sitting in the chair

00:33:43.400 working for NATO

00:33:44.260 is just a Ukrainian volunteer

00:33:46.680 for a week

00:33:47.420 and he's just doing

00:33:48.520 the same job.

00:33:50.480 Now I have no evidence

00:33:52.300 of that.

00:33:53.760 No evidence

00:33:54.640 of that whatsoever.

00:33:55.280 But it falls into

00:33:56.840 the category of things

00:33:58.040 which you could

00:33:59.860 successfully lie about.

00:34:02.500 So it's fair.

00:34:04.260 Right?

00:34:06.320 We think NATO

00:34:07.460 is secretly running

00:34:08.480 those drones.

00:34:09.580 I don't know

00:34:09.940 what you're talking about.

00:34:11.440 Show me the evidence.

00:34:13.880 Sure, there are drones,

00:34:16.040 but it's all Ukrainians.

00:34:18.800 Ukrainians,

00:34:20.400 it's Ukrainians

00:34:21.500 all the way down.

00:34:23.020 No evidence otherwise.

00:34:25.280 So if you can sell

00:34:26.560 the lie,

00:34:27.900 I think you do it.

00:34:30.900 So there's really

00:34:31.720 two wars going on.

00:34:33.340 One is all the stuff

00:34:34.380 we're doing

00:34:34.800 and mutually lying about.

00:34:36.420 And then there's

00:34:37.000 the stuff on the surface

00:34:38.000 that you can't lie about

00:34:39.640 so you don't lie as much.

00:34:42.040 Although Putin

00:34:42.700 did a pretty good job

00:34:43.620 of I'm not going to invade.

00:34:44.740 You know what?

00:34:49.020 You know what I wonder

00:34:50.220 about in terms of

00:34:51.500 how to treat Russia

00:34:53.000 after this is done?

00:34:55.200 It's almost as if

00:34:56.380 the real punishment

00:34:57.260 should be the lying.

00:35:00.180 Have you ever had

00:35:00.780 this standard for anything?

00:35:01.900 It's like,

00:35:02.620 okay, I don't mind

00:35:03.400 that you broke something

00:35:04.280 in my house.

00:35:05.800 I really hate

00:35:06.980 that you lied about it.

00:35:08.480 You know what I mean?

00:35:09.100 Like,

00:35:11.240 countries go to war

00:35:13.080 and it's, of course,

00:35:14.440 the biggest human tragedy.

00:35:16.960 But

00:35:17.320 if you're going to hold

00:35:18.940 somebody responsible

00:35:20.560 for something forever,

00:35:22.160 you should hold

00:35:23.000 Putin responsible

00:35:23.820 for saying

00:35:24.440 he wasn't going to attack.

00:35:26.560 And you should use

00:35:27.480 that justification

00:35:28.540 and that only

00:35:29.580 to ban Russia

00:35:31.320 from all business

00:35:32.440 and commerce.

00:35:33.860 Because business

00:35:34.820 and commerce

00:35:35.400 requires

00:35:36.100 that you do

00:35:37.280 what the fuck

00:35:38.000 you say you're going to do.

00:35:40.240 And the first time

00:35:41.360 you don't do it,

00:35:42.380 you get a bad

00:35:43.080 Yelp review.

00:35:44.260 You know what I mean?

00:35:45.820 And I think

00:35:46.320 that in addition to

00:35:48.180 the way we talk about it

00:35:51.060 is that we're

00:35:51.620 sanctioning Russia

00:35:52.840 for their military aggression,

00:35:55.760 which is literally

00:35:56.960 what we're doing.

00:35:58.040 A more productive,

00:35:59.480 persuasive way

00:36:00.220 to do it

00:36:00.800 is to say

00:36:02.060 that Russia

00:36:02.560 is no longer

00:36:03.560 suitable

00:36:05.840 for business.

00:36:07.800 And you just say,

00:36:08.500 look,

00:36:09.000 these are separate issues.

00:36:10.280 There's a war.

00:36:10.820 We have to deal with that.

00:36:12.400 We've got to get people safe,

00:36:13.860 et cetera.

00:36:15.280 But separately,

00:36:17.340 you have people in place

00:36:19.440 who will say

00:36:20.580 the exact opposite

00:36:21.700 of what they're going to do

00:36:23.020 and you can't do business

00:36:24.440 with anybody

00:36:25.060 under those conditions.

00:36:26.980 So Russia,

00:36:27.760 we're not at war with you,

00:36:29.400 but if you can find a way

00:36:30.540 to become credible

00:36:31.440 in the future,

00:36:32.220 which might require

00:36:33.240 a regime change,

00:36:34.860 but we'll wait.

00:36:35.840 You know,

00:36:36.640 no rush.

00:36:38.020 You don't have to go

00:36:39.320 all Lindsey Graham

00:36:40.080 about it.

00:36:41.000 If you'd like to wait

00:36:42.140 30 years

00:36:42.860 and just wait

00:36:44.000 until Putin's gone

00:36:45.520 and try again

00:36:46.240 and get a trustworthy

00:36:48.060 government,

00:36:50.200 we're waiting for you.

00:36:51.940 We'll be happy

00:36:52.700 to work with you.

00:36:53.940 We would like

00:36:54.560 to work with you,

00:36:55.260 Russia.

00:36:56.520 So remember

00:36:57.080 how Trump

00:36:58.340 treated North Korea?

00:37:00.680 We want to do

00:37:01.720 business with you.

00:37:02.560 We would love

00:37:03.920 to help you

00:37:04.540 rebuild.

00:37:06.440 We'll invest.

00:37:07.800 We can get people

00:37:08.540 to invest in your country.

00:37:10.160 Just stop

00:37:10.640 pointing rockets at us.

00:37:12.740 That's a way more

00:37:13.700 productive way

00:37:15.020 to negotiate.

00:37:17.740 Just say,

00:37:18.240 look,

00:37:18.700 you've got a business problem.

00:37:21.180 Your business problem

00:37:22.300 is that you can't

00:37:23.040 be trusted for anything.

00:37:25.780 We'll help you fix it.

00:37:27.200 We can help you

00:37:29.280 fix that.

00:37:30.700 We'll give you

00:37:31.420 a series of steps

00:37:32.360 that would rebuild

00:37:33.140 your credibility.

00:37:34.460 Don't think you're

00:37:35.320 going to do them,

00:37:36.600 but you could.

00:37:38.040 At least we'll give

00:37:38.620 you a path out.

00:37:41.340 So I always look

00:37:43.560 for ways to

00:37:44.440 take the emotions

00:37:46.360 out of these things

00:37:47.620 if you think

00:37:48.800 you'll ever need

00:37:49.440 to negotiate anything

00:37:50.500 and just say,

00:37:51.760 look,

00:37:52.040 you've got a bad

00:37:52.660 Yelp review

00:37:53.280 and that's separate

00:37:55.140 from the fact

00:37:55.720 that we've got

00:37:56.080 a war going on.

00:37:57.200 So here is my

00:37:59.580 Ukraine prediction.

00:38:02.480 NATO rejecting

00:38:03.380 air cover

00:38:03.980 is a very clear

00:38:06.000 signal that NATO

00:38:06.920 is not going

00:38:07.680 to play to win.

00:38:09.400 Am I right?

00:38:11.000 If NATO ever

00:38:12.520 meant to play

00:38:13.440 to win,

00:38:14.660 they would be

00:38:15.820 considering NATO

00:38:16.620 air cover.

00:38:18.120 So now NATO

00:38:19.120 has said,

00:38:19.980 we do not plan

00:38:20.760 to win.

00:38:22.640 Who thinks

00:38:23.700 that the Ukrainian

00:38:24.720 resistance

00:38:25.500 resistance

00:38:26.360 can just

00:38:28.040 flat out win?

00:38:30.620 I don't think

00:38:31.320 anybody,

00:38:32.100 right?

00:38:32.720 There are

00:38:33.200 definitely lots

00:38:33.820 of people

00:38:34.100 who think

00:38:34.420 they could

00:38:34.760 hang on

00:38:35.280 indefinitely

00:38:35.880 in an Afghanistan

00:38:37.620 potential way.

00:38:39.160 I don't think

00:38:39.640 so,

00:38:40.000 actually.

00:38:42.080 Afghanistan

00:38:42.520 at least had

00:38:43.180 all this

00:38:43.800 spread out

00:38:45.780 territory

00:38:46.360 and it was

00:38:46.940 hard to know

00:38:47.520 where anybody

00:38:48.160 was and who

00:38:48.800 was with who

00:38:49.400 and all that.

00:38:49.860 I feel like

00:38:51.120 in a modern

00:38:52.400 society,

00:38:53.480 as soon as

00:38:54.060 Russia has

00:38:54.560 control over

00:38:55.240 all the

00:38:55.600 communications,

00:38:56.820 I think they

00:38:57.780 can control

00:38:58.320 the country.

00:38:59.960 I've heard a lot

00:39:00.720 of people saying

00:39:01.320 no,

00:39:01.720 there's no way

00:39:02.240 they can ever

00:39:02.700 control them

00:39:03.340 because the

00:39:04.340 resistance will

00:39:05.260 just be well-armed

00:39:06.180 and fight to

00:39:07.580 the last person

00:39:08.320 until the only

00:39:10.660 way to communicate

00:39:11.560 is through

00:39:12.300 Russian technology.

00:39:14.240 At which point,

00:39:15.960 I think Russia

00:39:17.240 can actually know

00:39:18.340 who's doing

00:39:18.880 what everywhere

00:39:19.600 and crush

00:39:20.960 the resistance

00:39:21.600 over time.

00:39:24.360 But,

00:39:25.020 it will take

00:39:25.500 time.

00:39:27.460 So I think

00:39:28.080 that at this

00:39:29.000 point,

00:39:29.460 the money,

00:39:30.100 if you follow

00:39:30.540 the money

00:39:31.000 and you

00:39:34.440 follow,

00:39:35.120 let's say,

00:39:35.460 the psychology

00:39:36.000 of it,

00:39:37.120 we have put

00:39:37.800 Putin in a

00:39:38.340 position where

00:39:38.960 he can't

00:39:40.500 lose in

00:39:41.880 Ukraine.

00:39:43.180 In other

00:39:43.560 words,

00:39:43.940 we've guaranteed

00:39:44.640 that there will

00:39:45.240 be nothing to

00:39:45.820 stop him

00:39:46.320 militarily

00:39:46.900 and we've

00:39:48.500 decided he's

00:39:49.780 a war criminal.

00:39:52.120 That's a trap.

00:39:54.120 The trap is

00:39:55.280 that he has

00:39:55.880 no other

00:39:56.580 option but

00:39:58.800 to conquer

00:39:59.420 Ukraine and

00:40:00.260 somehow try to

00:40:00.880 make it work.

00:40:02.480 That's it.

00:40:04.140 Because he can't

00:40:05.140 be a war criminal,

00:40:06.240 follow along,

00:40:07.060 he can't be a war

00:40:07.920 criminal and

00:40:09.500 lose in Ukraine.

00:40:11.560 Can't do both.

00:40:12.680 I mean,

00:40:14.360 that would

00:40:14.600 guarantee his

00:40:15.300 end or it

00:40:16.280 would feel

00:40:16.600 like it would

00:40:16.980 guarantee it,

00:40:18.000 which would

00:40:18.660 be bad enough.

00:40:20.020 He could

00:40:20.700 probably survive

00:40:21.860 being called

00:40:22.540 a war criminal

00:40:23.440 by everybody

00:40:24.280 except China

00:40:25.520 and his good

00:40:26.220 friends and

00:40:27.260 everybody in

00:40:27.760 Russia,

00:40:28.560 who wants to

00:40:29.980 say it out

00:40:30.320 loud anyway.

00:40:31.320 He could

00:40:31.740 survive that.

00:40:33.580 But I don't

00:40:34.120 know if he

00:40:34.500 could survive

00:40:35.020 starting a war

00:40:35.900 in Ukraine,

00:40:37.340 losing a war

00:40:38.240 in Ukraine,

00:40:40.180 also being a

00:40:41.060 war criminal,

00:40:41.600 having his

00:40:43.400 entire economy

00:40:44.220 destroyed in

00:40:44.940 the process.

00:40:46.560 I mean,

00:40:46.960 I don't think

00:40:47.640 he could

00:40:47.920 survive that.

00:40:48.940 So he

00:40:49.280 basically has

00:40:49.940 one path,

00:40:51.080 which is to

00:40:51.780 destroy as

00:40:52.520 much of

00:40:52.960 Ukraine as

00:40:53.660 it takes,

00:40:54.840 whatever it

00:40:55.740 takes, as

00:40:57.100 long as it

00:40:57.720 takes.

00:40:58.980 And it looks

00:40:59.440 like that's

00:41:00.020 exactly what

00:41:00.680 he plans to

00:41:01.220 do.

00:41:02.200 Now, here's

00:41:04.080 your second

00:41:04.520 economic prediction

00:41:05.620 question.

00:41:06.840 In the short

00:41:07.600 run, it's

00:41:08.220 terrible for

00:41:08.880 Russia,

00:41:09.780 economically.

00:41:10.380 no debate

00:41:11.680 there.

00:41:12.920 In the long

00:41:13.840 run, could

00:41:15.560 this work out

00:41:16.320 for Putin?

00:41:17.540 Maybe not

00:41:18.200 Putin, but

00:41:18.840 let's say maybe

00:41:19.640 the leader after

00:41:20.380 that.

00:41:21.420 Could it be

00:41:22.240 an actual

00:41:24.080 rational investment

00:41:26.360 as evil as it

00:41:27.700 is and tragic?

00:41:29.920 Because here's

00:41:30.840 the things I'm

00:41:32.380 learning about

00:41:33.120 Ukraine that I

00:41:34.380 didn't know

00:41:35.480 until today,

00:41:37.400 in some cases.

00:41:38.020 apparently they

00:41:39.580 have vast

00:41:40.320 natural resources

00:41:41.380 including rare

00:41:42.360 minerals.

00:41:44.120 And their

00:41:44.540 vast natural

00:41:45.760 resources have

00:41:46.540 not been

00:41:47.080 exploited as

00:41:48.560 much as they

00:41:49.040 could.

00:41:50.220 So if Russia

00:41:50.980 took over

00:41:51.560 Ukraine with

00:41:52.500 its superior

00:41:53.560 energy production

00:41:55.420 facilities, it

00:41:57.120 would secure

00:41:57.720 its pipelines,

00:41:59.400 it would have

00:42:01.020 way more

00:42:01.480 resources,

00:42:01.980 it would have

00:42:05.080 demonstrated its

00:42:06.320 resolve, which

00:42:07.200 probably helps

00:42:07.740 it in other

00:42:09.080 future things

00:42:09.980 because people

00:42:10.580 would be like,

00:42:11.460 okay, we don't

00:42:11.880 want to mess

00:42:12.260 with Russia.

00:42:13.220 They pull down

00:42:14.220 all the stops

00:42:14.940 and always do.

00:42:17.100 Yeah, they

00:42:17.740 would get rid

00:42:18.160 of the launch

00:42:20.200 base in Ukraine.

00:42:21.300 They would feel

00:42:21.780 safer.

00:42:22.160 So, if you

00:42:25.820 add a ton of

00:42:27.060 people to

00:42:27.720 Russia, which

00:42:28.420 also had a

00:42:29.380 population

00:42:30.140 problem, it

00:42:32.600 would be one

00:42:33.200 way for Russia

00:42:33.860 to grow its

00:42:34.520 population, which

00:42:35.380 is actually

00:42:35.780 really healthy.

00:42:37.120 The more

00:42:37.480 people you

00:42:38.140 have, as

00:42:39.240 long as they

00:42:39.760 have jobs, the

00:42:42.000 more power your

00:42:42.960 country has.

00:42:43.940 It has a

00:42:44.380 bigger tax base,

00:42:45.820 blah, blah,

00:42:46.140 blah.

00:42:47.220 So, Scott, are

00:42:50.040 you pivoting to a

00:42:50.920 Russian win?

00:42:52.160 Let me get to

00:42:52.760 that's the right

00:42:54.080 question.

00:42:55.400 So, let's say

00:42:56.860 win in the

00:42:57.920 context of

00:42:58.680 economics.

00:43:01.280 In the context

00:43:02.480 of economics.

00:43:03.880 Because that

00:43:04.480 would allow

00:43:05.060 two possibilities.

00:43:06.800 One is there's

00:43:07.940 a forever

00:43:08.480 resistance, but

00:43:09.740 it doesn't stop

00:43:10.540 Ukraine from

00:43:11.340 being a country

00:43:13.140 that, or being

00:43:14.580 a region of

00:43:15.720 Russia that

00:43:16.240 produces good

00:43:17.000 economies.

00:43:17.460 countries.

00:43:25.360 So, here's, so

00:43:27.300 give me your

00:43:27.700 prediction.

00:43:28.560 Is taking

00:43:30.140 Ukraine at any

00:43:31.380 human cost,

00:43:32.940 because that's

00:43:33.920 part of the

00:43:34.300 economics, is

00:43:35.100 what the public

00:43:36.140 thinks about it

00:43:37.020 forever?

00:43:38.040 Because you

00:43:38.540 don't want to

00:43:39.140 destroy a part of

00:43:40.960 your own country

00:43:41.740 and then have to

00:43:42.380 live with that.

00:43:43.340 That's going to be

00:43:44.000 pretty dangerous.

00:43:45.280 But in the

00:43:46.000 long run, would

00:43:47.560 Russia come out

00:43:48.340 ahead economically

00:43:50.520 if they got

00:43:51.660 full control of

00:43:52.660 Ukraine?

00:43:55.520 Your answers

00:43:56.440 are, I'm

00:43:58.520 seeing yeses,

00:43:59.600 nos, yeses,

00:44:01.440 yeses.

00:44:04.020 I'm seeing

00:44:04.860 most yeses.

00:44:06.000 Now, do you

00:44:08.080 think that the

00:44:09.880 United States and

00:44:10.760 the West could

00:44:12.060 make that not

00:44:12.940 the case?

00:44:14.420 In some way,

00:44:15.760 could we make

00:44:16.320 it so expensive

00:44:17.160 that it would

00:44:17.720 never be

00:44:18.380 economical?

00:44:19.780 Meaning that

00:44:20.540 Ukraine just

00:44:21.640 would always

00:44:22.600 have armed

00:44:23.660 resistance, and

00:44:25.220 every time you

00:44:25.820 tried to build

00:44:26.680 anything in

00:44:27.240 Ukraine, somebody

00:44:28.940 in the West

00:44:29.480 funded somebody

00:44:31.100 to blow it

00:44:31.700 up.

00:44:33.500 Yeah.

00:44:36.040 My guess is

00:44:37.340 that all of

00:44:38.620 the bad

00:44:39.220 feelings about

00:44:39.920 Russia,

00:44:40.340 Russia, can

00:44:42.480 last no more

00:44:43.460 than, I'm

00:44:45.820 going to put a

00:44:46.200 number on it,

00:44:47.500 with or without

00:44:48.540 Putin in power.

00:44:50.560 Now, if he

00:44:51.200 were to leave

00:44:51.880 power sooner,

00:44:54.100 then I think

00:44:54.580 Russia's reputation

00:44:55.560 could improve,

00:44:56.900 depending on who

00:44:57.460 goes in there,

00:44:58.120 sooner.

00:44:58.840 But let's say

00:44:59.580 Putin stays

00:45:00.560 alive, lives a

00:45:02.120 long life.

00:45:03.620 I feel like it's

00:45:04.580 a 15-year

00:45:07.820 year at the

00:45:08.880 most, could

00:45:10.280 be 10

00:45:11.580 years, could

00:45:12.080 be 5, before

00:45:14.100 people who

00:45:15.080 need to buy

00:45:15.700 their stuff

00:45:16.320 just say, you

00:45:17.020 know, we

00:45:17.420 just need to

00:45:17.960 buy your

00:45:18.300 stuff, because

00:45:18.940 we just need

00:45:19.720 energy.

00:45:20.940 And the

00:45:22.320 Ukraine thing

00:45:23.120 is over, there

00:45:24.340 wasn't anything

00:45:24.780 we could do

00:45:25.480 then, there's

00:45:26.200 nothing we

00:45:26.620 could do

00:45:26.920 now, we're

00:45:27.980 just going to

00:45:28.400 buy your

00:45:28.820 energy because

00:45:29.740 it's the

00:45:30.520 cheapest, most

00:45:31.500 available, we

00:45:32.420 don't have

00:45:32.740 options.

00:45:33.100 Yeah, so I

00:45:37.260 think it's

00:45:37.820 very likely

00:45:38.840 that in 10

00:45:40.980 years, Russia

00:45:42.840 will look like

00:45:43.660 it made a good

00:45:44.260 investment.

00:45:45.860 What do you

00:45:46.680 think?

00:45:48.020 In 10

00:45:48.880 years, will

00:45:50.420 it look like

00:45:50.980 it was a good

00:45:51.480 investment from

00:45:52.420 Russia's

00:45:52.940 perspective?

00:45:56.460 Seeing yeses

00:45:57.840 and noes, but

00:45:58.660 a lot of

00:45:59.020 yeses, more

00:45:59.940 yeses.

00:46:03.100 I'm seeing

00:46:06.940 mostly, well,

00:46:08.340 okay, a mix

00:46:09.000 on YouTube,

00:46:10.520 yeses and

00:46:10.980 noes.

00:46:12.300 Now, let's

00:46:13.080 take uncertainty

00:46:14.960 as one of our

00:46:15.900 variables.

00:46:18.480 Would you

00:46:19.140 make this

00:46:19.620 investment?

00:46:20.400 Let's say you

00:46:21.460 didn't care about

00:46:22.140 human tragedy,

00:46:23.300 because you're a

00:46:23.820 monster.

00:46:25.740 Would you

00:46:26.140 make, as an

00:46:26.860 economic investment,

00:46:28.020 would you make

00:46:28.420 this investment,

00:46:29.420 given the

00:46:29.880 uncertainty?

00:46:33.100 Here's what I

00:46:33.940 think.

00:46:35.540 I feel like in

00:46:36.760 the long run,

00:46:38.300 however long

00:46:39.180 that long run

00:46:39.860 is, having

00:46:41.160 control of

00:46:41.840 Ukraine has to

00:46:42.660 be economically

00:46:43.300 positive for

00:46:44.160 Russia.

00:46:45.920 Maybe not in

00:46:46.900 10 years,

00:46:48.480 maybe not in

00:46:49.300 20, maybe

00:46:50.900 not in 50,

00:46:52.260 but in 100

00:46:53.680 years, yeah.

00:46:55.100 I mean, if they

00:46:55.640 can hold it for

00:46:56.220 100 years, yeah.

00:46:57.660 Yeah, it's a good

00:46:58.240 investment.

00:46:58.640 unfortunately.

00:47:01.920 So, if we

00:47:04.100 assume that

00:47:04.820 Putin doesn't

00:47:05.760 seem to care

00:47:06.320 about the

00:47:06.700 human loss,

00:47:07.660 we see

00:47:08.060 examples that

00:47:08.880 make that

00:47:09.660 case, then

00:47:11.160 he's just

00:47:11.580 making a good

00:47:12.140 investment, and

00:47:13.160 he's also

00:47:13.660 trapped into

00:47:14.380 completing his

00:47:15.140 investment at

00:47:15.740 this point.

00:47:16.860 So, while I

00:47:19.120 did predict

00:47:20.000 that Russia

00:47:21.160 would have way

00:47:21.880 more trouble

00:47:22.440 than they

00:47:23.560 thought, and

00:47:24.140 I think that's

00:47:24.620 been the case,

00:47:25.520 because the

00:47:26.140 quality of the

00:47:27.160 weapons that the

00:47:28.000 Ukrainians would

00:47:28.620 have access to.

00:47:29.920 Now, I don't

00:47:30.620 know if there

00:47:30.980 were any secret

00:47:31.660 weapons, but

00:47:32.580 I'll bet there

00:47:33.180 were.

00:47:34.580 What do you

00:47:35.220 think?

00:47:36.240 Secret in the

00:47:37.120 sense that the

00:47:38.080 Russians didn't

00:47:38.800 see it coming.

00:47:40.840 What do you

00:47:41.500 think?

00:47:42.220 I think maybe,

00:47:43.980 you know, or

00:47:44.460 maybe elements of

00:47:45.840 existing weapons

00:47:46.860 and known weapon

00:47:47.680 systems were, you

00:47:49.220 know, better than

00:47:49.860 we thought, or

00:47:50.940 had more features

00:47:51.640 than we thought,

00:47:52.560 or something

00:47:53.400 like that.

00:47:54.280 So, I think

00:47:54.820 Russia got some

00:47:56.500 surprises by the

00:47:57.860 weapons themselves.

00:47:59.140 Just guessing.

00:48:00.400 Don't know.

00:48:02.960 But I would say

00:48:03.780 at this point,

00:48:04.620 Ukraine doesn't

00:48:05.680 really have a

00:48:06.600 chance of staying

00:48:07.560 independent.

00:48:11.320 And, you

00:48:15.480 know, I don't

00:48:16.600 even know what to

00:48:17.080 say about that.

00:48:17.980 I mean, it's so

00:48:18.780 awful.

00:48:20.760 I guess it's

00:48:21.580 literally beyond

00:48:22.280 words, because I

00:48:23.560 don't lose the

00:48:25.240 ability to talk

00:48:25.960 about things very

00:48:26.640 often.

00:48:27.640 But as soon as

00:48:28.140 it came out of

00:48:28.640 my mouth, I

00:48:29.380 didn't even know

00:48:29.940 what to say about

00:48:30.480 it.

00:48:31.040 It's just so

00:48:31.580 awful.

00:48:32.840 And, but all of

00:48:34.500 the outcomes look

00:48:35.220 awful at this

00:48:35.940 point.

00:48:36.740 We're choosing

00:48:37.500 among awful

00:48:38.180 outcomes.

00:48:39.720 So, I don't even

00:48:40.860 know if I should

00:48:41.660 wish for a speedy

00:48:43.140 or a slow victory

00:48:45.200 by Russia, because

00:48:46.280 it kind of looks

00:48:47.180 inevitable at this

00:48:48.020 point.

00:48:48.260 And the

00:48:50.060 inevitability is

00:48:50.940 based entirely on

00:48:52.720 the fact that

00:48:53.420 Putin wants it

00:48:54.280 more.

00:48:55.640 He wants it more

00:48:56.460 than NATO wants

00:48:57.160 to stop it, and

00:48:58.120 only NATO can

00:48:58.940 stop it.

00:49:00.080 Is that fair?

00:49:02.060 Could you break

00:49:03.040 it down to just

00:49:03.940 that?

00:49:05.580 Putin wants it

00:49:06.540 more than NATO,

00:49:08.260 and that's it.

00:49:11.060 NATO is not

00:49:11.880 even going to put

00:49:12.340 up a proper

00:49:13.400 fight.

00:49:14.600 So, if one

00:49:15.340 side's fighting

00:49:16.160 like it's the

00:49:17.340 most important

00:49:17.980 thing ever, which

00:49:19.640 Putin is at this

00:49:20.440 point, we forced

00:49:21.160 him to do that.

00:49:22.460 You know, where

00:49:22.880 he is at this

00:49:23.760 point, I mean, it's

00:49:24.640 by his own

00:49:25.200 actions, plus our

00:49:26.880 actions, but the

00:49:27.960 combination of his

00:49:28.760 actions plus our

00:49:29.620 actions force him

00:49:31.760 to win.

00:49:32.940 He's forced to

00:49:33.760 win.

00:49:34.080 I don't know if he

00:49:34.600 has a choice.

00:49:35.760 Now, I do think

00:49:38.120 that the Russian

00:49:38.780 army is going to

00:49:40.600 have insane

00:49:41.640 losses.

00:49:42.960 I do think that

00:49:43.900 that column,

00:49:45.140 well, let me

00:49:47.120 give you another

00:49:47.760 variable that's

00:49:48.520 possible.

00:49:50.280 Do you think the

00:49:51.260 Ukrainians have

00:49:52.080 ever asked for

00:49:52.960 some kind of

00:49:54.680 warthogs or

00:49:55.880 whatever the

00:49:56.440 aircraft are

00:49:57.940 that strafe and

00:49:59.920 destroy entire

00:50:00.720 columns of

00:50:01.420 enemy stuff?

00:50:02.680 A-10?

00:50:03.300 Is it the A-10?

00:50:04.620 Do you think the

00:50:05.480 Ukrainians have

00:50:06.320 requested those?

00:50:08.200 Because you'd

00:50:09.100 only need

00:50:09.920 five of them

00:50:12.680 to take out

00:50:15.880 the entire

00:50:16.440 Russian column?

00:50:17.740 Am I wrong?

00:50:19.300 I think you'd

00:50:20.160 only need five

00:50:20.820 of them.

00:50:21.820 Because let's

00:50:22.520 say you lose

00:50:23.060 three.

00:50:24.480 The other two

00:50:25.360 can just finish

00:50:26.620 the job.

00:50:27.920 They might have

00:50:28.620 to reload a few

00:50:29.520 times.

00:50:31.160 So here's my

00:50:33.960 question.

00:50:34.820 If NATO said

00:50:35.940 they're rejecting

00:50:36.520 air cover, but

00:50:38.260 at some point I

00:50:39.280 think there was

00:50:39.720 discussion of

00:50:40.860 extra aircraft

00:50:42.680 being provided,

00:50:44.940 but I don't

00:50:45.680 know by whom.

00:50:48.820 So here's my

00:50:49.780 question.

00:50:52.240 Could

00:50:52.700 somebody, I

00:50:54.040 guess it would

00:50:54.320 be the United

00:50:54.800 States, or if

00:50:55.820 somebody had used

00:50:56.560 ones, I suppose

00:50:57.220 some other

00:50:57.600 country could sell

00:50:58.280 the ones that

00:50:58.720 they bought from

00:50:59.400 the United

00:50:59.720 States, but

00:51:00.700 could somebody

00:51:01.340 provide in the

00:51:02.540 next few days

00:51:03.640 aircraft that

00:51:06.120 would take out

00:51:06.680 entire Russian

00:51:07.720 columns?

00:51:09.720 I feel like

00:51:11.720 NATO saying

00:51:13.020 that they

00:51:13.380 wouldn't provide

00:51:14.140 air cover is

00:51:15.560 kind of saying

00:51:16.380 that they're not

00:51:17.080 going to fight

00:51:17.580 like that.

00:51:19.740 In other words,

00:51:20.220 they're not going

00:51:20.600 to fight to

00:51:21.040 win, so what

00:51:22.560 would be the

00:51:22.980 point of taking

00:51:23.560 out the Russian

00:51:24.100 column?

00:51:25.540 There wouldn't

00:51:26.000 be a military

00:51:27.080 or economic

00:51:27.960 benefit, would

00:51:28.640 there?

00:51:29.680 I don't see

00:51:30.440 one.

00:51:31.560 So I think

00:51:31.980 NATO's already

00:51:32.700 tapped out,

00:51:33.360 frankly.

00:51:34.960 And that's,

00:51:36.440 you know, that

00:51:36.760 predicts the

00:51:37.280 end.

00:51:37.500 Now, and

00:51:42.820 the best bet

00:51:43.480 that the

00:51:43.800 United States

00:51:44.420 has, and

00:51:46.160 Europe, I

00:51:46.660 suppose, is

00:51:48.140 to make sure

00:51:48.660 that it's a

00:51:49.160 pyrrhic victory.

00:51:50.580 How many of

00:51:51.360 you are so

00:51:52.060 well-educated

00:51:52.860 that when I

00:51:54.480 say it will

00:51:54.920 be a pyrrhic

00:51:55.780 victory, you

00:51:57.400 say to

00:51:57.700 yourself, I

00:51:58.180 know exactly

00:51:58.780 what that

00:51:59.180 means, you

00:51:59.800 cartoonist,

00:52:00.600 you?

00:52:01.860 Right?

00:52:04.220 Typically, I

00:52:05.060 like to speak

00:52:05.920 at a sixth

00:52:06.780 grade level,

00:52:07.880 because that's

00:52:08.540 actually just

00:52:09.060 good communication

00:52:09.880 style.

00:52:10.760 As soon as

00:52:11.280 you get above

00:52:11.740 sixth grade,

00:52:13.620 you know, a

00:52:14.040 third of your

00:52:14.620 audience, at

00:52:15.480 least, is

00:52:17.060 going to miss

00:52:17.540 a word and

00:52:18.180 not know what

00:52:18.760 you said.

00:52:19.800 A pyrrhic

00:52:20.360 victory means

00:52:21.720 you won the

00:52:22.340 battle, but

00:52:23.880 you were so

00:52:24.440 degraded in the

00:52:25.460 fight that

00:52:26.000 you, you

00:52:26.660 know, you're

00:52:27.300 worse off than

00:52:28.060 if you hadn't

00:52:28.660 won the

00:52:28.980 battle, or if

00:52:29.940 you hadn't

00:52:30.160 had the

00:52:30.440 battle, I

00:52:30.780 guess.

00:52:32.080 So it's

00:52:32.820 possible that

00:52:33.440 Russia will

00:52:33.880 take Ukraine,

00:52:34.760 but the

00:52:35.240 United States

00:52:36.060 and the

00:52:36.300 West will

00:52:36.700 keep the

00:52:37.080 sanctions on

00:52:37.800 so extraordinarily

00:52:39.600 hard that

00:52:41.300 they lose in

00:52:42.140 the long

00:52:42.500 run.

00:52:43.620 But I

00:52:44.260 don't think

00:52:44.780 they can

00:52:45.080 lose in

00:52:45.820 the 20

00:52:46.540 to 50

00:52:47.000 year range,

00:52:48.120 if they're

00:52:48.500 thinking that

00:52:48.980 long.

00:52:49.740 Probably not.

00:52:52.500 All right.

00:52:54.800 And the

00:52:55.100 most, here's

00:52:57.620 what the

00:52:58.040 people on

00:52:59.060 Twitter who

00:52:59.660 I polled,

00:53:00.600 so this is

00:53:01.160 unscientific

00:53:01.980 Twitter poll.

00:53:03.680 I asked,

00:53:04.140 what are the

00:53:04.380 odds of

00:53:04.960 Russia's move

00:53:06.020 into Ukraine

00:53:07.100 being economical?

00:53:09.840 Now, here's

00:53:10.420 why I think

00:53:11.100 this poll

00:53:12.120 might be the

00:53:12.760 only useful

00:53:13.380 one ever

00:53:13.940 on Twitter,

00:53:14.900 because a

00:53:15.960 non-scientific

00:53:17.020 poll probably

00:53:19.000 misleads as

00:53:20.060 much as it

00:53:20.620 informs.

00:53:22.000 That's why you

00:53:22.760 have good

00:53:24.100 polls, so you

00:53:24.940 don't do

00:53:25.200 that.

00:53:25.400 But if you're

00:53:28.340 asking the

00:53:28.800 question of what

00:53:29.420 would the

00:53:30.540 average person

00:53:31.420 think about a

00:53:32.140 situation, a

00:53:32.860 poll could be

00:53:33.300 actually kind

00:53:33.760 of handy,

00:53:34.820 because you

00:53:35.380 might surprise

00:53:36.120 yourself.

00:53:37.120 So I asked,

00:53:37.920 what are the

00:53:38.180 odds that

00:53:38.680 Russia will

00:53:39.600 find it

00:53:39.980 economical in

00:53:40.840 the long

00:53:41.180 run to

00:53:42.220 go into

00:53:42.560 Ukraine, or

00:53:44.360 what are the

00:53:45.060 odds of it

00:53:45.540 being economical?

00:53:46.640 And your

00:53:47.100 answers were,

00:53:48.820 if you

00:53:49.160 answered it,

00:53:50.100 only 29%

00:53:51.320 thought it

00:53:51.760 was a high

00:53:52.340 chance of

00:53:53.000 being economical,

00:53:54.660 23% thought

00:53:55.800 medium, but

00:53:56.400 54%

00:53:58.800 thought it

00:54:00.120 had the

00:54:00.420 low odds

00:54:01.340 of being

00:54:01.720 economical.

00:54:04.040 54% is

00:54:05.300 roughly the

00:54:05.940 number of

00:54:06.320 people who

00:54:06.700 don't understand

00:54:07.360 economics at

00:54:08.220 any level

00:54:08.880 whatsoever,

00:54:09.860 because I'm

00:54:11.700 pretty sure it's

00:54:12.220 economical.

00:54:13.680 You just have

00:54:14.200 to wait for

00:54:14.760 it.

00:54:15.860 In the short

00:54:16.720 run, it could

00:54:17.320 be horrible.

00:54:18.820 I mean, the

00:54:19.300 Russian economy

00:54:19.980 could really be

00:54:21.260 taking a crap

00:54:21.980 for 10 years.

00:54:22.900 It's possible.

00:54:24.720 But in the

00:54:25.160 long run,

00:54:25.700 unfortunately, I

00:54:26.580 think it's just

00:54:27.040 guaranteed to be

00:54:28.520 profitable.

00:54:31.560 And then the

00:54:33.600 most important

00:54:34.180 thing I heard

00:54:34.740 is that Ben

00:54:35.340 Shapiro watched

00:54:36.080 the new

00:54:36.500 Batman movie

00:54:37.700 and said it's

00:54:38.240 bad.

00:54:42.080 That is the

00:54:42.960 least surprising

00:54:44.000 tweet of the

00:54:45.900 year, because

00:54:47.560 if you haven't

00:54:48.960 noticed, all

00:54:49.440 movies are bad

00:54:50.120 now.

00:54:51.400 All movies are

00:54:52.100 bad.

00:54:53.220 There's just no

00:54:53.940 such thing as a

00:54:54.620 good movie

00:54:55.020 anymore.

00:54:55.980 Documentaries

00:54:56.460 are still good.

00:54:57.060 I still like

00:54:58.040 some of the

00:54:58.680 ones based on

00:54:59.800 real-life

00:55:00.500 things, like

00:55:01.780 the Elton

00:55:02.260 John movie,

00:55:03.640 the one about

00:55:04.120 Queen.

00:55:05.500 Those are

00:55:05.900 great.

00:55:07.340 But as soon

00:55:08.140 as a movie

00:55:08.580 has to be

00:55:09.100 fiction, then

00:55:10.760 I don't know

00:55:11.120 if it's

00:55:11.460 egos or

00:55:12.600 contractual,

00:55:15.940 who has the

00:55:16.680 edit rights,

00:55:18.160 I don't know

00:55:18.520 what's wrong.

00:55:19.940 But today,

00:55:21.240 movies are

00:55:21.760 nothing but

00:55:22.300 two or three

00:55:23.180 hours of

00:55:23.660 discomfort and

00:55:25.020 boredom.

00:55:26.900 I can

00:55:27.540 barely remember

00:55:28.380 when movies

00:55:29.120 were good.

00:55:30.660 Now, there

00:55:30.940 are a number

00:55:31.420 of factors

00:55:31.980 making this

00:55:32.560 true.

00:55:32.840 One is that

00:55:33.380 other things

00:55:34.120 cater to

00:55:35.380 short attention

00:55:36.100 spans.

00:55:37.060 So we've

00:55:37.420 been trained

00:55:37.880 to have

00:55:38.140 short attention

00:55:38.740 spans.

00:55:39.320 That's one.

00:55:40.060 The other

00:55:40.460 thing is that

00:55:41.020 people have

00:55:41.480 gravitated away

00:55:42.500 from big

00:55:43.000 screens toward

00:55:43.680 little ones,

00:55:44.820 which changes

00:55:45.820 the whole

00:55:46.180 nature of

00:55:46.880 movie watching

00:55:48.180 in a negative

00:55:49.360 way.

00:55:49.600 And we

00:55:50.940 also watch

00:55:51.460 movies individually.

00:55:53.520 I used to

00:55:54.300 like watching

00:55:54.840 a movie even

00:55:55.440 if I didn't

00:55:55.880 like the

00:55:56.240 movie, because

00:55:57.740 I'd watch it

00:55:58.220 with other

00:55:58.540 people, and

00:55:59.600 I liked the

00:56:00.140 popcorn and

00:56:00.760 the experience,

00:56:01.760 and then you

00:56:02.320 would talk

00:56:02.660 about it

00:56:02.980 afterwards,

00:56:03.460 about how

00:56:03.780 bad the

00:56:04.120 movie was,

00:56:04.640 and you'd

00:56:04.860 have some

00:56:05.160 drinks, and

00:56:05.560 it was all

00:56:05.860 fun.

00:56:06.960 But if

00:56:07.540 everybody's

00:56:08.100 just watching

00:56:08.560 it on their

00:56:09.020 own while

00:56:09.660 they're doing

00:56:11.940 something else,

00:56:13.520 you don't have

00:56:14.080 any kind of a

00:56:14.640 shared experience,

00:56:15.520 and you don't

00:56:15.820 even get the

00:56:16.220 popcorn.

00:56:17.160 You don't

00:56:17.520 even get it

00:56:17.860 out of the

00:56:18.080 house.

00:56:18.320 So a lot

00:56:20.920 about the

00:56:21.360 movie business

00:56:22.200 is bad, but

00:56:22.920 one of the

00:56:23.820 worst things

00:56:24.800 is that the

00:56:26.280 CGI is so

00:56:27.320 good.

00:56:30.560 I have to

00:56:31.280 tell you,

00:56:31.840 some of you

00:56:32.480 are not old

00:56:33.080 enough to

00:56:33.640 know what

00:56:34.500 this felt

00:56:34.900 like, but

00:56:35.280 I'll bet

00:56:35.500 most of

00:56:35.880 you are.

00:56:37.040 Do you

00:56:37.400 remember how

00:56:37.880 you felt

00:56:38.340 when you

00:56:38.680 saw the

00:56:39.040 first Star

00:56:39.980 Wars movie?

00:56:42.960 In the

00:56:43.540 comments, tell

00:56:44.080 me how that

00:56:44.520 felt.

00:56:45.200 Like when

00:56:45.520 you saw the

00:56:46.000 first one.

00:56:46.540 it just

00:56:48.220 blew your

00:56:48.600 head off,

00:56:49.080 didn't it?

00:56:50.200 Now if you

00:56:50.880 were to watch

00:56:51.280 that first

00:56:51.800 one by

00:56:52.220 today's

00:56:52.740 standards,

00:56:54.320 it would

00:56:54.800 be lame,

00:56:56.500 and you

00:56:57.680 could see

00:56:58.020 strings on

00:56:58.840 the ships,

00:56:59.520 and it just

00:57:00.200 looks pretty

00:57:00.660 lame by

00:57:01.540 today's

00:57:01.960 standards.

00:57:03.140 But now,

00:57:03.980 let's say you

00:57:04.440 watched the

00:57:04.880 most excellently

00:57:06.460 done CGI

00:57:08.060 sci-fi,

00:57:10.060 like one of

00:57:11.160 the Marvel

00:57:11.780 movies.

00:57:12.300 are you

00:57:14.160 still blown

00:57:14.780 away by

00:57:15.260 the special

00:57:15.800 effects?

00:57:18.200 Nope.

00:57:19.240 The special

00:57:19.840 effects are

00:57:20.320 so good that

00:57:22.400 they eliminated

00:57:23.540 the oh wow

00:57:24.760 factor, because

00:57:26.260 any well-funded

00:57:27.820 movie is going

00:57:28.740 to have the

00:57:29.040 same perfect

00:57:30.020 looking effects.

00:57:32.140 So one of

00:57:33.260 the biggest

00:57:33.680 reasons to be

00:57:34.700 amazed by the

00:57:35.740 movies was you

00:57:37.280 would see

00:57:37.600 something on

00:57:38.080 the screen that

00:57:38.760 you would say,

00:57:39.280 that had to be

00:57:40.120 hard to do.

00:57:40.760 like, wow,

00:57:42.800 why can't

00:57:43.260 everybody do

00:57:43.840 that?

00:57:44.760 If you take

00:57:45.580 even Gone

00:57:47.180 with the Wind,

00:57:48.860 Gone with the

00:57:50.000 Wind, for its

00:57:51.780 time, was

00:57:52.520 cinematically

00:57:53.500 beautiful.

00:57:54.600 Big screen,

00:57:56.200 whatever movie

00:57:58.380 technology they

00:57:59.200 were using to

00:57:59.740 make the color,

00:58:00.380 it was all

00:58:00.640 great.

00:58:01.540 Was it black

00:58:02.040 and white

00:58:02.300 originally?

00:58:02.640 And then got

00:58:03.440 colorized?

00:58:04.400 I forget.

00:58:06.320 But, so a

00:58:08.700 lot of what

00:58:09.120 made movies

00:58:09.840 good is gone,

00:58:11.460 our attention

00:58:11.940 spans are

00:58:12.560 shorter, and

00:58:14.240 the movies, I

00:58:15.600 think, are

00:58:16.160 shittier.

00:58:17.280 I don't think

00:58:18.200 I'm wrong about

00:58:18.820 that.

00:58:19.540 I think that the

00:58:20.320 movies are too

00:58:20.980 long.

00:58:22.840 Maybe there's a

00:58:23.620 reason for that.

00:58:24.440 Maybe you can

00:58:25.040 sell more

00:58:25.460 advertisements, or

00:58:26.280 maybe it fits

00:58:27.900 into streaming

00:58:29.660 better or

00:58:30.280 something.

00:58:30.680 I don't know.

00:58:31.560 But they're way

00:58:33.580 too long compared

00:58:34.500 to older movies.

00:58:35.460 They're poorly

00:58:36.100 written.

00:58:36.560 They're predictable.

00:58:37.720 There's always a

00:58:38.580 chase scene.

00:58:39.180 There's always

00:58:39.700 somebody tied to

00:58:41.340 a chair and

00:58:41.920 tortured.

00:58:43.660 It's just the

00:58:44.400 same movie over

00:58:45.120 and over again.

00:58:46.020 I think it's a

00:58:46.900 dead art.

00:58:48.720 What do you

00:58:49.060 think?

00:58:50.260 Do you think

00:58:50.640 movies are dead?

00:58:51.720 I literally

00:58:52.380 think they just

00:58:54.360 don't have a

00:58:54.840 future in their

00:58:56.140 current form.

00:58:57.020 I mean, if they

00:58:57.480 changed quite a

00:58:58.500 bit, then yes.

00:58:59.860 You know what?

00:59:01.000 Maybe virtual

00:59:02.760 reality is the

00:59:03.620 next.

00:59:04.820 Because you

00:59:05.460 should get to

00:59:06.020 the point where

00:59:06.500 you can be in

00:59:07.180 the movie.

00:59:08.920 I've described

00:59:09.840 this before, but

00:59:11.560 imagine taking a

00:59:12.460 history lesson where

00:59:14.220 you're actually on

00:59:14.900 the battlefield.

00:59:16.740 Like the soldiers

00:59:17.880 are just running

00:59:18.440 past you.

00:59:19.920 Or you're

00:59:21.500 actually, you

00:59:22.260 want to replay

00:59:23.460 January 6th, so

00:59:25.700 in American history.

00:59:27.000 What if you could

00:59:27.820 actually be in the

00:59:28.760 Capitol Rotunda

00:59:29.760 when the guy with

00:59:32.400 the horns walk

00:59:35.360 through?

00:59:35.900 Because we have

00:59:36.420 enough video that

00:59:37.240 you could actually

00:59:37.780 create an entire

00:59:38.680 virtual reality that

00:59:41.300 you would feel you

00:59:42.000 were there.

00:59:44.120 Now, of course, you

00:59:45.160 have too much

00:59:45.700 subjectivity about

00:59:46.660 who was being

00:59:48.000 violent where, but

00:59:49.320 you could recreate

00:59:50.100 that entire event,

00:59:51.940 and you could learn

00:59:52.900 about it in school by

00:59:54.420 walking around the

00:59:55.340 Rotunda and fast

00:59:57.100 forwarding it and

00:59:57.960 seeing the people go

00:59:58.720 by, seeing the

00:59:59.920 battles with the

01:00:00.600 police, maybe at

01:00:02.380 the same time seeing

01:00:03.400 news reports or the

01:00:05.300 president's speech.

01:00:06.720 How about this?

01:00:07.880 Imagine a VR

01:00:08.840 environment in which

01:00:11.100 you can simultaneously

01:00:12.320 fast forward and

01:00:13.800 reverse the actual

01:00:14.800 events while you're

01:00:15.840 in them, like

01:00:16.980 they're actually

01:00:17.400 walking, people are

01:00:18.300 walking around you.

01:00:19.520 You're following the

01:00:20.480 crowd into the

01:00:21.180 Capitol.

01:00:22.340 And at the same

01:00:23.000 time, you can call

01:00:23.740 up a TV screen that

01:00:24.820 will float in front

01:00:25.540 of you that shows

01:00:27.020 President Trump's

01:00:28.580 speech in real

01:00:30.240 time, like

01:00:32.040 matched to the

01:00:33.840 actual goings-on

01:00:35.320 in front of the

01:00:36.420 Capitol.

01:00:37.120 So you can see

01:00:37.680 when the fence

01:00:38.240 went down, you

01:00:39.640 can see when the

01:00:40.420 security seemed to

01:00:42.040 lapse, you can see

01:00:43.500 when people got more

01:00:44.340 violent, if that

01:00:45.140 happened, I don't

01:00:45.680 know if it did, and

01:00:47.760 then time it to the

01:00:48.700 outside events.

01:00:49.760 I mean, that's what

01:00:50.300 learning will be in

01:00:51.900 just a few years.

01:00:53.720 I told you that a

01:00:55.400 few years ago, I

01:00:56.520 already, I did a

01:00:57.900 tour inside the

01:00:59.200 Hindenburg, you

01:01:01.080 know, the airship

01:01:02.000 that caught on fire

01:01:03.420 and was a disaster.

01:01:05.480 There's a virtual

01:01:06.400 reality program where

01:01:08.180 you can go inside the

01:01:09.380 crew quarters and

01:01:10.380 walk around.

01:01:11.560 It had a smoking

01:01:12.420 room.

01:01:13.740 It had a cigarette

01:01:14.300 smoking room.

01:01:15.700 A little ashtrays

01:01:16.520 there.

01:01:17.100 You can walk around.

01:01:17.840 You can walk into the

01:01:18.940 control room to see

01:01:20.680 how they flew it.

01:01:22.240 Look down at the

01:01:23.140 controls.

01:01:23.580 You can go into the

01:01:26.040 infrastructure within

01:01:27.540 the balloon and see

01:01:29.280 like the framing and

01:01:30.220 everything.

01:01:31.860 That's what education

01:01:33.200 looks like in a few

01:01:34.480 years.

01:01:35.540 Imagine learning to be

01:01:36.600 a car mechanic in

01:01:42.580 10 years.

01:01:43.980 You're going to walk

01:01:44.840 into the virtual

01:01:45.480 reality.

01:01:47.100 You'll see the car

01:01:48.040 engine in front of you

01:01:48.940 floating.

01:01:50.300 And then while you're

01:01:50.960 watching it, it will

01:01:51.740 disassemble into each

01:01:53.420 of its component

01:01:54.200 parts, will be

01:01:55.800 described, and then

01:01:57.000 each one will be

01:01:57.900 brought back.

01:01:59.640 You can see how it

01:02:00.360 acts.

01:02:01.100 And you'll see each

01:02:01.820 part rotated and why

01:02:03.520 it does what it does.

01:02:05.020 You would learn

01:02:05.820 everything about an

01:02:06.900 engine in about

01:02:09.140 seven minutes.

01:02:11.260 And you could be

01:02:12.140 like a trained

01:02:13.740 mechanic in seven

01:02:15.640 minutes.

01:02:16.740 Because if you saw

01:02:17.860 a problem, you could

01:02:19.460 just put that problem

01:02:20.480 into your computer

01:02:21.700 and be in the

01:02:23.460 virtual reality and

01:02:24.580 say, ah, that

01:02:25.400 problem is this

01:02:26.400 component usually, but

01:02:27.840 sometimes this

01:02:28.500 component.

01:02:30.220 And stick your

01:02:31.980 monitor into this

01:02:33.760 hole.

01:02:35.780 It'll just be easy.

01:02:37.900 I mean, you could

01:02:38.320 learn an entire

01:02:39.060 skill in a few

01:02:40.720 minutes with the

01:02:42.640 ongoing boost.

01:02:44.300 All right.

01:02:44.640 So much for that.

01:02:46.660 my prediction,

01:02:51.680 unfortunately, is not

01:02:52.640 the happiest one.

01:02:54.720 But I think...

01:02:56.660 Anyway, how many

01:02:57.720 agreed with my

01:02:59.740 general prediction

01:03:00.500 that at this point

01:03:02.420 Putin has to take

01:03:03.600 all of Ukraine?

01:03:04.580 There's no backing

01:03:06.820 out at this point.

01:03:11.200 I see yeses and nos.

01:03:12.880 All right.

01:03:13.460 Well, that's all I

01:03:13.940 got for today.

01:03:14.480 I've got to go do

01:03:15.180 some other stuff

01:03:15.760 and I will talk to

01:03:16.720 you tomorrow.

01:03:18.300 Bye.

01:03:18.360 Bye.

01:03:18.420 Bye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 04, 2022

Episode 1672 Scott Adams： We Can Probably Predict How Ukraine Turns Out At This Point

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