Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1675 Scott Adams： All of the News About Ukraine is Fake But Let's Talk About it Anyway

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the most fantastic, incredible experience of your whole damn life.

00:00:12.940 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and yes, life has never been better than just this moment until tomorrow.

00:00:21.140 Wait until you see how good it is tomorrow.

00:00:24.680 But today is pretty good, too, and all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or gel,

00:00:28.500 as it's not a canteen, a jug, a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:33.100 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:35.420 I like coffee.

00:00:37.040 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine to the end of the day,

00:00:40.640 a thing that's going to solve all your problems.

00:00:43.440 Here's a test.

00:00:45.280 Think of a problem you want solved, and then repeat it in your mind,

00:00:51.380 and then have the simultaneous sip.

00:00:53.140 Go.

00:00:53.380 Go.

00:00:57.060 Okay, I did mine.

00:00:58.900 Now, we're going to check back in a few weeks and see if any of your problems got solved by the simultaneous sip.

00:01:04.220 My guess is no fewer than 60 to 75 percent of all your problems were just solved.

00:01:10.860 And that, ladies and gentlemen, is science.

00:01:15.640 Well, a special shout-out to Mark Schneider.

00:01:18.860 You hear his name a lot in terms of talking about nuclear energy in this country.

00:01:25.400 Well, he reports that in 430 days, so a year plus, he went from obese to finishing a marathon,

00:01:37.860 which I believe he finished yesterday.

00:01:40.900 Went from obese to finishing a marathon.

00:01:44.580 He finished a marathon yesterday.

00:01:48.540 What?

00:01:50.500 And the interesting part is he sort of documented the whole journey.

00:01:55.040 And he was essentially taking, I guess, what he would consider the best advice on how to turn your life around.

00:02:04.820 Now, some of that came from some of my work.

00:02:07.220 Some of it came from other work.

00:02:08.380 But essentially, he just took it a chunk at a time, started with a very small goal of running, I think, a mile a day or something,

00:02:17.640 and turned it into a system so that the system just does what the system does.

00:02:24.780 It's something you work on every day.

00:02:26.220 And, you know, I would see his reports.

00:02:29.300 He'd have a day where he'd go out there and he just couldn't run any kind of distance.

00:02:34.700 Still a success.

00:02:36.380 The important thing is that his system was he would go do something every day, you know, running related.

00:02:42.560 And if some days he went and his body just wasn't going to cooperate, the system still worked.

00:02:48.900 Because the system is you keep doing it.

00:02:51.200 That's the important part.

00:02:52.140 So the important part was not that any given day he ran X number of miles.

00:02:57.360 The important part was you don't stop.

00:03:00.440 And by simply not stopping and by turning it into a system and doing a little bit every day,

00:03:07.000 430 days to go from obese to running a marathon.

00:03:11.300 So if you're wondering what's the edge case, like what's the best you can do in a year and a half,

00:03:20.260 well, there you go.

00:03:22.140 Yeah, things you can learn in a year and a half.

00:03:25.320 There's somebody in my circle of social circle who decided that she wanted to learn Spanish.

00:03:34.800 And in, I think, something like, I don't know, nine months or something, or six months, actually,

00:03:43.120 I think in something like six months, she became fluent, decided to learn 25 words a day in Spanish,

00:03:51.720 and then seek out people to talk with to practice.

00:03:55.500 And in six months, she's basically fluent in Spanish.

00:03:59.360 So look at the things that people accomplished during the pandemic.

00:04:06.040 I mean, I basically started a whole business.

00:04:08.800 You know, what I'm doing right now, that was a pandemic project.

00:04:11.640 So when you see some of the great successes that people have had on social and personal stuff,

00:04:19.160 you have a lot of years in your life.

00:04:23.620 You know, you can make such a difference in one year if you just get serious about it,

00:04:28.360 whatever it is you want.

00:04:29.180 All right, there's news on nuclear.

00:04:33.060 Elon Musk has tweeted.

00:04:35.440 He said, hopefully, it is now extremely obvious.

00:04:38.540 We won't, if Josh Lysak is watching this,

00:04:43.040 we won't criticize his overuse of descriptive terms.

00:04:49.320 But hopefully, it is now extremely obvious that Europe should restart dormant nuclear power stations

00:04:55.340 and increase power output of existing ones.

00:04:58.480 This is critical to national and international security.

00:05:04.020 Now, who has been telling you loudly and for a long time

00:05:08.780 that if you're looking at nuclear energy as just an energy source,

00:05:13.200 you're missing the big picture?

00:05:15.740 And that it's a security problem.

00:05:18.860 It's not only a security problem now, you know, Ukraine being the top example,

00:05:23.280 but it's a huge security problem as we go into space.

00:05:26.540 If you don't have the best, you know, domestic nuclear energy program,

00:05:32.200 you're not going to have good nuclear energy in space either

00:05:36.060 because you need one to support the other.

00:05:39.780 And so Elon Musk is now saying what some of us have been saying now for several years,

00:05:44.980 which is you need to consider the homeland security element or actually international security element of energy.

00:05:54.580 And it's not until Elon Musk says it in a tweet that it becomes real, right?

00:06:00.280 The good thing about Elon Musk is that his credibility at this point is so high

00:06:05.920 that he just tweets something and suddenly the entire national mood will shift a few points.

00:06:13.880 So, you know, so now Musk is full-throated in favor of carbon fuels,

00:06:20.860 at least in the short run, for security reasons,

00:06:24.140 and also nuclear, also for security reasons.

00:06:27.160 So that is exactly the right opinion.

00:06:31.000 Now, this made me wonder, I said to myself, Scott,

00:06:35.920 suppose hypothetically you had been in charge of everything for the last several years.

00:06:42.080 Let's say, Scott, that your opinion, you personally, your opinion, Scott,

00:06:47.400 of what we should have done had been followed.

00:06:50.060 Where would we be today?

00:06:51.200 Well, I told you to, as many of you did, right?

00:06:56.020 This is not my special opinion or something.

00:06:58.420 But many of us said Trump was right about energy independence.

00:07:04.000 I would have said that.

00:07:05.620 I've been pro-nuclear for years and years and years.

00:07:09.440 Would have been completely right about that.

00:07:13.820 Completely right about climate change being a potential risk,

00:07:19.320 but that we can't predict it because there will be new technologies

00:07:23.060 that will change everything.

00:07:25.080 Was I right about that?

00:07:26.800 Was I right that new technologies will make it impossible

00:07:30.360 to know what climate change would do in the future?

00:07:33.080 Well, there's lots of new technologies coming,

00:07:36.520 including fusion, etc.

00:07:38.400 But here's another one that's kind of cool.

00:07:41.580 There are these genetically modified bacterium

00:07:44.740 that can take carbon dioxide right out of the air.

00:07:48.480 Well, I guess you take it out of the air probably differently.

00:07:52.240 But once it's taken out of the air,

00:07:53.900 they can put that CO2 into this modified bacterium,

00:07:58.000 or let's talk in non-scientific terms.

00:08:02.100 You can bash together the bacteria and the CO2,

00:08:06.080 and we'll turn it into useful industrial chemicals

00:08:10.780 like acetone and isopropanol.

00:08:14.260 What?

00:08:14.820 And apparently they can do it at an industrial,

00:08:19.920 economically feasible level.

00:08:22.020 So that's been demonstrated now.

00:08:24.140 So they have economics solved and the technique solved

00:08:28.160 to suck CO2 out of the air

00:08:30.440 and turn it into a commercial product you can sell.

00:08:34.660 You want to hear my weirdest prediction?

00:08:37.280 I'm positive it's going to be true.

00:08:39.400 My weirdest prediction is there will someday be an industry

00:08:44.860 to mine CO2 out of the air.

00:08:49.700 Does anybody want to bet against that?

00:08:53.600 And it's based on this stuff,

00:08:54.940 because I've been reading about this for a few years.

00:08:57.200 There are a number of chemical processes

00:08:59.080 where you can turn CO2,

00:09:01.780 you'd call it farming, okay?

00:09:03.220 CO2 farming, I guess.

00:09:04.380 So I think as soon as there's an industrial viable industry,

00:09:11.600 that the whole climate change thing

00:09:14.540 is going to turn into we need more CO2.

00:09:17.360 Am I right?

00:09:18.560 If it simply became feasible

00:09:21.100 to suck CO2 out of the air

00:09:23.360 and turn it into something you could sell,

00:09:26.080 a lot of people are going to do that right away,

00:09:28.180 because there would be no barrier to entry, right?

00:09:31.160 You just build the device that sucks it out of the air,

00:09:33.620 and, well, there would be a barrier to entry,

00:09:35.600 because it's, you know,

00:09:36.620 it'd be probably a big industrial complex

00:09:38.780 to do it efficiently.

00:09:40.560 But I don't think the technology to do it

00:09:43.380 is going to be that difficult.

00:09:46.600 So I'd look for that.

00:09:49.160 Look for more of the bacterium solution,

00:09:53.840 because acetone and isopropanol

00:09:55.780 are not the only things you can turn CO2 into.

00:10:00.020 They're just the easy things they did first.

00:10:01.920 They could turn in all kinds of stuff.

00:10:06.300 One of my commenters says,

00:10:08.080 here comes ego Scott.

00:10:10.880 Let me pause a moment and speak to you, my troll,

00:10:15.960 because I know you like it

00:10:17.520 when I address you individually.

00:10:21.380 The people who think that when I talk about

00:10:24.060 something I'm good at

00:10:25.620 or something I got right,

00:10:27.600 when their first reaction is that it's ego,

00:10:31.480 those people are losers every time.

00:10:34.820 If you want to know something that will guarantee

00:10:36.880 you can identify somebody with a loser philosophy,

00:10:41.620 somebody who has no chance of succeeding in life,

00:10:44.760 it's when they see other people talking about

00:10:47.020 what they do well

00:10:47.940 or saying what they got right,

00:10:50.460 and they have a real negative reaction to it.

00:10:53.460 Literally a negative reaction to success.

00:10:57.040 There's nothing that could predict

00:10:59.820 you're going to lose in life than that comment.

00:11:03.500 Now, you don't have to like

00:11:05.940 anybody's personality

00:11:07.900 or the way they present themselves.

00:11:09.980 I'm just saying that

00:11:10.960 if another person's ego

00:11:12.580 is what you're responding to

00:11:14.840 as opposed to the thing they're saying,

00:11:17.180 just look at the thing I'm saying.

00:11:20.260 Is it true or not true

00:11:21.580 that I've been pro-nuclear

00:11:22.760 way before some of the people

00:11:25.480 talking about it now?

00:11:26.440 That's just true.

00:11:27.980 So if you think that the question

00:11:29.560 that you should focus on

00:11:30.880 in that story,

00:11:33.120 Scott was right about nuclear,

00:11:35.020 if you think the thing you should focus on

00:11:36.880 is my ego,

00:11:38.460 you, my troll,

00:11:40.340 are a fucking loser.

00:11:42.180 You will always lose in life

00:11:43.600 because you can never see the tree for the forest.

00:11:46.000 If what you're worried about

00:11:47.780 is your psychological reaction

00:11:49.700 to me being right

00:11:51.340 about some of the most important things

00:11:53.140 in civilization,

00:11:54.880 you have a mental problem.

00:11:57.740 It has nothing to do with me.

00:11:59.400 So go deal with your mental problem

00:12:00.860 and then when you've dealt with that,

00:12:03.640 come back here and make some comments, okay?

00:12:07.300 All right.

00:12:10.120 Rasmussen says that in the U.S.,

00:12:12.580 70% of the people they polled

00:12:14.840 favor increased U.S. oil and gas production.

00:12:18.860 I have told you before

00:12:20.120 that if the public agrees on something by,

00:12:23.480 you know, I just picked out of the air 75%,

00:12:25.560 it's going to happen.

00:12:28.540 But I'm a little concerned

00:12:29.820 that it might not in this case.

00:12:32.500 Is there something that's different

00:12:36.420 about U.S. oil and gas production?

00:12:40.200 That 70% of the public

00:12:42.200 can't get what it wants?

00:12:47.720 Get rid of this guy.

00:12:50.020 Goodbye, trolley.

00:12:53.280 And I'm thinking that

00:12:54.860 this administration really can't do that,

00:12:58.120 can they?

00:12:59.340 This administration can't really

00:13:01.380 just suddenly change direction

00:13:03.320 and increase production of fossil fuels.

00:13:07.720 Am I right?

00:13:08.420 You can't really do that.

00:13:10.720 So you have to get rid of

00:13:12.280 the current administration

00:13:13.500 to get what 70% of the country wants,

00:13:17.020 which is increased U.S. oil

00:13:18.440 and gas production.

00:13:20.100 I think that Biden's administration,

00:13:22.440 especially because of the progressive wing,

00:13:25.640 they can't possibly change direction

00:13:27.440 on this, can they?

00:13:28.160 If Biden changed direction

00:13:30.420 on fossil fuels,

00:13:33.340 it would be such an off-brand thing to do.

00:13:37.080 I don't know.

00:13:38.080 What would Democrats even do with that?

00:13:40.920 How would you even process it

00:13:42.220 if you're a Democrat?

00:13:43.480 There couldn't be anything

00:13:44.500 that's more central

00:13:46.080 to the Democrat brand

00:13:47.560 than climate change.

00:13:50.360 So you have to actually elect

00:13:52.560 a different person

00:13:53.680 to get this result,

00:13:55.060 something that 70% of the country wants.

00:13:57.160 Yeah, it would be

00:13:58.560 antithetical

00:14:00.920 to their entire worldview.

00:14:03.140 I rarely, if ever,

00:14:05.480 this might be the first time

00:14:06.920 I've ever said that word out loud,

00:14:09.120 antithetical.

00:14:11.580 Yeah.

00:14:13.120 I just realized

00:14:14.060 I've never said that word out loud.

00:14:15.880 And the reason is

00:14:16.700 I would never use that word in public

00:14:18.240 except I was reading it in a comment.

00:14:20.660 I would use a simpler word

00:14:22.300 because it's not a word

00:14:23.700 that a sixth grader would recognize.

00:14:26.800 I try to avoid any word

00:14:28.620 that a sixth grader doesn't recognize.

00:14:31.440 Well, once again,

00:14:32.540 Jonathan Turley,

00:14:33.420 who is one of my favorite writers

00:14:35.160 on all things political,

00:14:37.360 he's talking about

00:14:38.020 the Democrats' big lie.

00:14:39.340 You know,

00:14:40.120 the Democrats' big definition

00:14:42.080 of the big lie

00:14:42.840 was when Trump

00:14:44.000 and others said

00:14:45.320 that maybe the 2020 election

00:14:46.940 was rigged

00:14:47.540 and the Democrats

00:14:49.180 and the media

00:14:50.180 labeled that

00:14:52.700 the big lie.

00:14:54.020 The big lie.

00:14:55.280 But now,

00:14:55.800 as Jonathan Turley points out,

00:14:57.220 Biden and his supporters

00:14:59.420 have a new big lie

00:15:00.740 of their own.

00:15:02.280 So their big lie

00:15:03.360 is that

00:15:04.040 the various states

00:15:07.000 that are changing

00:15:07.600 their election laws

00:15:08.600 are changing them

00:15:09.900 to steal the 2022

00:15:11.060 and 2024 elections.

00:15:13.340 In other words,

00:15:14.380 they're priming the public

00:15:16.940 to not accept

00:15:18.460 the next election

00:15:19.760 based on

00:15:21.220 things they say

00:15:22.820 that are happening now

00:15:23.540 in the legal system.

00:15:24.780 I mean,

00:15:25.260 transparent things

00:15:26.160 that everybody can see.

00:15:28.000 But they're saying

00:15:28.480 that those things

00:15:29.180 are going to basically

00:15:30.180 rig the election

00:15:31.120 and so it won't be

00:15:31.920 a fair election

00:15:32.480 when it's done.

00:15:34.560 Now,

00:15:35.080 what do you think

00:15:39.580 of that?

00:15:42.200 Because

00:15:42.720 I can't think

00:15:45.740 of anything

00:15:46.020 more dangerous

00:15:46.680 from the country,

00:15:47.540 can you?

00:15:48.980 We're having

00:15:49.760 these January 6th hearings

00:15:51.440 under the theory

00:15:53.820 that when politicians

00:15:56.640 and the administration

00:15:57.920 tell you

00:15:59.320 that their system

00:16:00.100 that they are a part of

00:16:01.200 is corrupt,

00:16:02.580 it's really destabilizing.

00:16:04.020 So when Trump

00:16:05.240 says an election

00:16:06.020 was rigged,

00:16:08.020 it's very destabilizing

00:16:09.240 for the country.

00:16:10.180 You know,

00:16:10.360 whether he's right

00:16:10.960 or wrong,

00:16:12.100 it's a very destabilizing

00:16:13.280 thing to do.

00:16:15.740 And here's Biden

00:16:16.500 doing it right now.

00:16:17.640 The Biden administration

00:16:18.460 is performing

00:16:20.120 the crime

00:16:20.880 that the January 6th

00:16:23.000 people are trying

00:16:23.740 to investigate

00:16:24.540 like at the same time.

00:16:27.020 Now,

00:16:27.300 I mean,

00:16:27.600 that's not exactly

00:16:29.160 an apples to apples

00:16:30.020 comparison,

00:16:30.720 but my point is

00:16:32.200 if January 6th

00:16:33.220 was allegedly so bad

00:16:34.740 because it was a risk

00:16:36.420 to the,

00:16:37.000 you know,

00:16:37.340 the democratic system

00:16:38.500 itself,

00:16:39.900 well,

00:16:40.160 then what Biden's doing

00:16:41.100 is exactly as much risk

00:16:42.900 without the,

00:16:44.580 you know,

00:16:46.020 storming the Capitol

00:16:46.980 part,

00:16:47.540 but that was not really

00:16:48.360 the important part

00:16:49.060 anyway.

00:16:49.640 It was important

00:16:50.300 in terms of the violence

00:16:51.320 and the crime,

00:16:52.380 but it wasn't important,

00:16:54.260 the actual storming

00:16:55.060 of the Capitol,

00:16:55.940 it wasn't important

00:16:56.980 in terms of,

00:16:57.760 you know,

00:16:58.120 the direction

00:16:58.620 of the country.

00:16:59.820 I mean,

00:17:00.000 it was a small

00:17:01.260 trespassing crime,

00:17:02.240 basically,

00:17:03.580 and so violence.

00:17:05.160 Don't want to minimize

00:17:06.020 the violence,

00:17:06.700 that was real,

00:17:07.180 it's just a separate

00:17:07.820 question,

00:17:08.440 that's all.

00:17:10.400 So,

00:17:11.440 I think Turley

00:17:12.540 is right on the,

00:17:13.580 right on point here

00:17:14.560 that the Biden

00:17:16.000 administration

00:17:16.460 is creating

00:17:17.200 a very destabilizing

00:17:18.960 and dangerous situation.

00:17:20.560 They're doing it

00:17:21.280 intentionally,

00:17:22.500 they're doing it

00:17:23.120 with great planning,

00:17:24.580 they're doing it

00:17:25.080 way in advance,

00:17:26.860 and I can't think

00:17:28.100 of anything

00:17:28.460 that would be worse

00:17:29.140 for the country

00:17:29.760 than telling people

00:17:31.380 in advance

00:17:32.120 that an election

00:17:32.760 will be rigged,

00:17:36.260 and they're saying

00:17:37.100 the reason,

00:17:38.240 and apparently

00:17:38.740 the reason

00:17:39.380 they're giving

00:17:39.960 is completely

00:17:41.860 a lie,

00:17:43.200 which is that

00:17:43.840 these laws

00:17:44.360 are making it

00:17:45.300 harder to vote

00:17:46.100 for Democrats,

00:17:47.280 I guess,

00:17:47.900 and that therefore

00:17:48.780 that's how the election

00:17:50.060 will be rigged.

00:17:50.760 But the rules

00:17:53.040 that are being

00:17:53.540 contemplated and passed

00:17:54.880 by these various states

00:17:56.120 don't have any

00:17:57.460 of that in it.

00:17:59.240 You know,

00:17:59.420 there are claims

00:18:00.080 such as it reduces

00:18:01.040 the hours for voting,

00:18:03.000 but you look at the law

00:18:03.920 and it increases

00:18:04.580 the hours for voting.

00:18:05.920 Literally the opposite

00:18:07.020 of what Biden's

00:18:08.760 administration

00:18:09.260 is claiming.

00:18:12.160 January 6th violence

00:18:13.320 didn't involve

00:18:14.160 Trump supporters

00:18:15.040 or somebody saying,

00:18:16.000 well,

00:18:16.340 I'm not going to,

00:18:17.660 I don't agree

00:18:18.560 with you on that.

00:18:19.620 All right,

00:18:25.320 so,

00:18:27.240 Jake Tapper

00:18:27.880 had a great piece

00:18:29.180 on how the United States

00:18:30.840 has enabled Putin

00:18:32.300 by not,

00:18:34.000 and other countries

00:18:34.840 have enabled him,

00:18:35.880 by not responding

00:18:36.980 for his past,

00:18:38.420 his past transgressions.

00:18:41.720 So,

00:18:42.400 when Putin took Crimea,

00:18:43.820 I think the world said,

00:18:44.840 hey,

00:18:45.280 cut that out,

00:18:46.620 but we can kind of see

00:18:48.000 it's a special case,

00:18:50.300 you know,

00:18:50.480 there's tremendous

00:18:51.520 Russian strategic importance,

00:18:54.200 it's a small area

00:18:55.200 relative to the rest

00:18:56.260 of the world,

00:18:57.660 they're Russian-speaking,

00:18:59.540 and so you can kind of

00:19:00.500 rationalize it away,

00:19:02.580 which I think we did.

00:19:04.360 And then suddenly

00:19:05.380 Putin's in Georgia,

00:19:07.580 and you say,

00:19:08.000 well,

00:19:08.640 they are kind of

00:19:09.920 Russian-speaking-ish,

00:19:13.660 and so you sort of

00:19:14.720 rationalize it away.

00:19:16.740 And then,

00:19:17.160 you know,

00:19:17.440 then I don't have

00:19:18.840 the timing right,

00:19:19.500 but Putin destroys

00:19:21.480 Grozny totally,

00:19:22.820 the city of Grozny,

00:19:23.780 to get at the Chechens.

00:19:25.780 And we say,

00:19:26.980 well,

00:19:27.680 that's sort of

00:19:28.120 a local problem,

00:19:29.360 and yeah.

00:19:30.860 So,

00:19:31.560 so Georgia was

00:19:32.340 before Crimea,

00:19:33.180 somebody's saying.

00:19:34.180 So,

00:19:34.440 but anyway,

00:19:34.920 the point stands

00:19:36.020 that he did

00:19:37.480 a number of things

00:19:38.360 that you would expect

00:19:40.660 some kind of

00:19:41.240 world reaction to,

00:19:42.640 but individually,

00:19:43.520 the world kept saying,

00:19:44.540 ah,

00:19:44.900 I think we can work

00:19:45.880 with you.

00:19:47.020 And as Jake Tapper

00:19:47.800 pointed out,

00:19:48.940 that both Republican

00:19:49.780 and Democrat presidents,

00:19:51.360 going back to Bill Clinton,

00:19:53.160 were very,

00:19:54.200 very willing

00:19:55.720 to work with Putin

00:19:58.240 and thought they could.

00:19:59.740 They thought that he was

00:20:00.880 a straight shooter.

00:20:03.760 But,

00:20:04.660 now the news,

00:20:06.260 which I think is fake,

00:20:07.700 is that Putin has always said,

00:20:10.420 if you look at his writings

00:20:11.420 and his speeches,

00:20:12.560 he has always tried

00:20:13.380 to reconstitute

00:20:14.340 the Soviet Union,

00:20:15.860 and so you should know now

00:20:17.100 that he's definitely

00:20:18.120 going to go for more countries.

00:20:20.460 In the comments,

00:20:22.620 I want to see your opinion.

00:20:24.900 Given that Putin

00:20:26.280 would have now absorbed

00:20:27.620 Crimea, Georgia,

00:20:29.860 and let's say he succeeds

00:20:32.060 in part of,

00:20:32.860 or all of Ukraine,

00:20:34.460 would he go for more?

00:20:37.240 If he finishes with Ukraine,

00:20:39.020 will he go for more?

00:20:39.920 Or Moldova, maybe?

00:20:43.860 Well, I think,

00:20:45.340 I think Putin has shown

00:20:48.880 that he will go for anything

00:20:50.020 he thinks he can get.

00:20:52.680 What would you say?

00:20:54.240 I say Putin,

00:20:56.480 by his nature,

00:20:58.660 you know,

00:20:58.980 comes from a long line

00:21:00.340 of leaders

00:21:00.820 who have the same characteristic.

00:21:02.720 If he thinks it'll work,

00:21:05.100 he'll try it.

00:21:06.600 I think that's the only requirement,

00:21:08.280 right?

00:21:08.440 Does it look like it'll work?

00:21:10.800 If it's going to work,

00:21:12.180 yeah.

00:21:13.180 Now,

00:21:13.760 the Baltic countries,

00:21:15.080 Estonia,

00:21:15.880 Latvia,

00:21:16.440 Lithuania,

00:21:17.620 would be sort of

00:21:19.560 obvious territories

00:21:20.940 just because of geography.

00:21:23.040 You know,

00:21:23.200 they're little countries,

00:21:24.440 not much military,

00:21:26.140 and they're right

00:21:26.660 in that little area

00:21:27.300 that the Soviet Union

00:21:28.240 used to own,

00:21:29.500 and it's sort of in the way,

00:21:30.540 and it has a little

00:21:30.980 strategic value.

00:21:32.560 So yeah,

00:21:32.960 you can imagine

00:21:33.580 he'd look at those.

00:21:35.440 But they are NATO.

00:21:36.480 And the smart people

00:21:38.940 are saying he would

00:21:39.560 never attack

00:21:40.340 a NATO country.

00:21:43.580 What do you think?

00:21:45.460 I think it's weird

00:21:47.460 that everybody

00:21:48.700 is respecting

00:21:49.520 this NATO boundary.

00:21:51.680 Does that seem weird

00:21:52.800 to you?

00:21:54.220 Because in war,

00:21:55.520 every boundary

00:21:56.140 gets just obliterated.

00:21:59.600 You don't want it to,

00:22:00.580 but it does.

00:22:02.100 But why is this

00:22:02.780 NATO boundary thing,

00:22:04.700 like even Russia,

00:22:05.760 seems to be acting

00:22:06.560 like it matters?

00:22:08.500 I mean,

00:22:08.900 for an obvious reason,

00:22:09.940 because the military alliance

00:22:11.620 would be triggered.

00:22:12.960 But would NATO

00:22:14.220 just start

00:22:14.940 nuking Russia?

00:22:17.540 I mean,

00:22:18.580 I'm not so sure

00:22:20.760 that Putin

00:22:22.080 does care

00:22:22.660 if it's NATO.

00:22:24.360 I think he only cares

00:22:25.920 what the reaction

00:22:27.880 would be.

00:22:29.580 And yeah,

00:22:30.140 so let's say

00:22:30.940 Article 5

00:22:31.760 gets initiated,

00:22:33.880 which is

00:22:34.280 NATO's protection

00:22:36.300 of if anybody's attacked,

00:22:37.840 we're all attacked.

00:22:39.440 But do you think,

00:22:40.600 I'll just pick a country,

00:22:42.000 do you think

00:22:42.440 if Russia

00:22:43.060 moved troops

00:22:43.740 into Lithuania

00:22:44.720 or Latvia,

00:22:47.980 Estonia

00:22:48.600 is maybe

00:22:49.020 a different question,

00:22:50.040 but do you think

00:22:50.440 if Putin moved troops

00:22:51.780 in there

00:22:52.160 that NATO

00:22:53.360 would start

00:22:54.340 World War III

00:22:55.060 over Latvia?

00:22:56.300 would NATO

00:22:59.440 start World War III

00:23:00.900 over Latvia?

00:23:05.000 Most people

00:23:05.700 say yes.

00:23:06.780 But I think

00:23:07.320 you're looking

00:23:08.100 at the credible

00:23:08.920 deterrent thing.

00:23:10.640 I just don't know

00:23:11.700 that they would.

00:23:13.100 So the problem is

00:23:14.180 if Putin

00:23:15.180 has a different

00:23:16.480 calculation

00:23:17.060 than you do,

00:23:19.040 then he would

00:23:19.600 take those things.

00:23:21.480 Well,

00:23:21.980 it looks like

00:23:22.320 Russia has responded

00:23:23.440 to the credit card

00:23:24.960 companies saying

00:23:25.600 they won't process

00:23:26.440 credit cards

00:23:27.100 for Russia.

00:23:29.100 And now

00:23:29.840 they've got

00:23:30.160 their own entity

00:23:30.980 that's going

00:23:31.620 to work

00:23:31.880 with a Chinese

00:23:32.440 entity

00:23:32.920 to replace

00:23:33.840 the credit cards.

00:23:36.120 As others

00:23:36.980 have said,

00:23:37.700 will we look

00:23:38.280 back on this

00:23:38.980 as our biggest

00:23:40.360 strategic mistake

00:23:41.620 ever?

00:23:42.560 Because we

00:23:43.340 allowed

00:23:43.780 China and Russia

00:23:45.660 and their allies

00:23:47.360 to create

00:23:48.900 a functioning

00:23:49.600 alternative

00:23:50.400 currency

00:23:52.700 that would

00:23:54.760 replace

00:23:55.160 the dollar

00:23:55.540 someday?

00:23:56.700 Have we made

00:23:57.340 it easy

00:23:57.940 for them

00:23:58.500 to destroy

00:23:59.300 the United

00:23:59.760 States?

00:24:00.880 I don't know.

00:24:02.580 But I have

00:24:03.020 a question

00:24:03.360 about it.

00:24:05.280 Have you seen

00:24:06.040 the story

00:24:06.440 about the

00:24:06.960 Russian

00:24:08.060 whistleblower

00:24:09.580 who allegedly

00:24:10.500 had been

00:24:12.760 an analyst

00:24:13.540 in the

00:24:14.260 Russian

00:24:14.640 intelligence

00:24:15.080 agency?

00:24:16.380 Did anybody

00:24:16.720 see that story?

00:24:18.380 There was a

00:24:18.820 big threat

00:24:19.240 on it.

00:24:20.000 There was a

00:24:20.280 number of

00:24:20.700 entities.

00:24:22.700 Now the

00:24:23.300 whistleblower

00:24:23.840 is making

00:24:26.020 claims that

00:24:26.920 Putin's

00:24:28.180 out of touch

00:24:29.040 and that

00:24:31.140 the Russian

00:24:33.060 here's some

00:24:33.720 of the claims

00:24:34.280 and I'm

00:24:35.320 going to tell

00:24:35.640 you in a

00:24:36.000 moment that

00:24:36.400 I think

00:24:36.700 this is

00:24:37.100 fake news.

00:24:38.760 So my

00:24:39.060 opinion is

00:24:39.740 that all

00:24:40.080 of this

00:24:40.360 is fake

00:24:40.720 news.

00:24:41.760 But I'll

00:24:42.000 tell you

00:24:42.260 what it

00:24:42.500 is.

00:24:43.020 It's being

00:24:43.460 reported as

00:24:44.080 real news.

00:24:45.320 But I

00:24:45.620 don't think

00:24:46.080 the top

00:24:47.000 media entities

00:24:49.980 by size

00:24:50.720 have treated

00:24:52.020 this as

00:24:52.520 real.

00:24:54.420 Somebody

00:24:54.700 give me

00:24:55.320 a fact

00:24:55.660 check of

00:24:56.020 this.

00:24:56.640 But this

00:24:56.940 story seems

00:24:57.540 to be in

00:24:58.000 let's say

00:24:58.400 the second

00:24:59.160 tier

00:24:59.580 publications

00:25:00.200 or third

00:25:00.820 tier and

00:25:01.780 on social

00:25:02.220 media but

00:25:03.480 it's not

00:25:03.920 on, I

00:25:04.600 don't think

00:25:04.920 it's been

00:25:05.240 in the

00:25:05.460 New York

00:25:05.720 Times or

00:25:06.260 Wall Street

00:25:06.560 Journal.

00:25:08.940 And the

00:25:09.540 claims are

00:25:10.060 that this

00:25:10.460 Russian

00:25:10.900 intel guy

00:25:12.760 allegedly says

00:25:14.720 that the

00:25:15.040 Russian dead

00:25:15.560 could be as

00:25:16.000 much as

00:25:16.340 10,000 but

00:25:17.740 nobody knows

00:25:18.640 and that

00:25:22.640 Russia has

00:25:23.360 no way out

00:25:24.080 and they're

00:25:24.380 trapped and

00:25:25.200 basically it's

00:25:26.660 a whole big

00:25:28.000 old problem.

00:25:29.940 Now, here's

00:25:31.080 my take.

00:25:32.400 The

00:25:32.680 credibility

00:25:33.880 is that

00:25:35.260 other people

00:25:35.940 who are in

00:25:36.460 the Russian

00:25:37.120 intelligence

00:25:37.640 agencies have

00:25:39.140 been asked

00:25:39.680 if this looks

00:25:40.340 like a real

00:25:40.920 person who's

00:25:41.560 in the

00:25:41.840 intelligence

00:25:42.220 agencies.

00:25:43.380 The two

00:25:44.180 people who

00:25:44.640 are in the

00:25:44.940 Russian

00:25:45.160 intelligence

00:25:45.700 agencies whose

00:25:46.460 names we

00:25:46.920 don't know

00:25:47.400 say that

00:25:49.160 yes, that's

00:25:49.920 definitely a

00:25:50.420 real person

00:25:50.900 there, just

00:25:52.180 by looking at

00:25:52.700 the writing.

00:25:54.720 So, would

00:25:55.700 you believe

00:25:56.320 a story that

00:25:58.640 is coincidentally

00:26:00.100 exactly what

00:26:01.140 Ukraine would

00:26:01.820 want to hear

00:26:02.440 when Ukraine

00:26:04.360 is creating

00:26:04.900 one fake

00:26:05.440 story after

00:26:06.000 another in

00:26:06.520 the news,

00:26:07.040 that part we

00:26:07.540 know, so

00:26:08.800 that's not

00:26:09.180 me speculating.

00:26:10.740 We know for

00:26:11.440 sure Ukraine

00:26:12.200 is creating

00:26:12.960 one false

00:26:13.780 anecdote after

00:26:15.240 another.

00:26:15.560 And the

00:26:17.880 reason that

00:26:18.640 we could

00:26:18.940 trust this

00:26:19.460 story is

00:26:20.720 that somebody

00:26:21.380 claims it

00:26:21.940 comes from

00:26:22.420 an anonymous

00:26:23.040 source.

00:26:24.260 Do you

00:26:24.720 trust that?

00:26:25.700 If that

00:26:26.320 were all

00:26:26.660 you knew,

00:26:27.580 it came

00:26:27.920 from an

00:26:28.340 anonymous

00:26:28.660 source.

00:26:29.840 No, you

00:26:30.260 wouldn't

00:26:30.440 trust that.

00:26:31.420 So you

00:26:31.780 have to

00:26:32.180 launder the

00:26:33.360 unanimous

00:26:34.320 source.

00:26:35.140 So the

00:26:35.440 way they

00:26:35.760 laundered it

00:26:36.500 was to say

00:26:37.500 they talked

00:26:37.940 to two

00:26:38.240 other

00:26:38.480 unanimous

00:26:39.040 sources who

00:26:39.620 say the

00:26:39.920 first unanimous

00:26:40.620 source looks

00:26:41.100 good to

00:26:41.480 them.

00:26:41.720 seriously?

00:26:45.000 That's how

00:26:45.580 they laundered

00:26:46.240 this thing?

00:26:47.960 They said,

00:26:48.860 oh, you

00:26:49.240 can trust

00:26:49.700 it because

00:26:50.460 our one

00:26:50.900 anonymous

00:26:51.300 source was

00:26:52.580 validated by

00:26:53.380 two other

00:26:53.940 anonymous

00:26:54.320 sources and

00:26:54.960 we're not

00:26:55.240 going to

00:26:55.420 tell you

00:26:55.660 any of

00:26:55.940 their names.

00:26:57.080 That is

00:26:57.680 the most

00:26:57.960 obvious

00:26:58.360 fake news

00:26:59.020 of all

00:27:00.220 fake news.

00:27:01.800 And it's,

00:27:02.680 you know, I

00:27:03.020 retweeted it.

00:27:05.500 I don't

00:27:06.120 remember if I

00:27:06.660 said it

00:27:06.920 looked fake,

00:27:07.720 but I

00:27:08.200 retweeted it.

00:27:08.800 We're in a

00:27:11.660 serious fog

00:27:12.400 of horror

00:27:12.700 problem because

00:27:13.780 the more you

00:27:14.380 think about

00:27:14.920 it, and

00:27:16.620 honestly, when

00:27:17.380 I read it, I

00:27:18.260 read the

00:27:18.700 English translation

00:27:19.800 so there might

00:27:20.400 be some

00:27:20.680 problems.

00:27:21.220 When I read

00:27:22.000 it, I

00:27:22.340 thought it

00:27:23.300 read as

00:27:23.720 obviously

00:27:24.280 false, like

00:27:25.980 obviously

00:27:26.500 made up,

00:27:27.940 like really

00:27:28.460 obviously,

00:27:29.600 like super

00:27:30.260 obviously

00:27:30.780 fake.

00:27:32.760 And yet,

00:27:33.480 they sold

00:27:34.240 many of you

00:27:34.800 by saying

00:27:35.200 that they

00:27:35.520 talked to

00:27:35.900 two anonymous

00:27:36.420 people who

00:27:37.000 said it

00:27:37.220 was real.

00:27:38.800 Now, if

00:27:40.200 that works,

00:27:42.780 let me tell

00:27:43.440 you, there's

00:27:45.120 a report that

00:27:45.760 I can fly by

00:27:46.660 flapping my

00:27:47.320 arms.

00:27:48.160 Now, of

00:27:48.580 course you

00:27:48.840 don't believe

00:27:49.220 me.

00:27:51.020 Why would

00:27:51.640 you believe

00:27:51.980 me if I

00:27:53.180 say I can

00:27:53.640 fly through

00:27:54.180 the air by

00:27:54.640 flapping my

00:27:55.220 arms?

00:27:55.560 Don't believe

00:27:56.060 me, but

00:27:57.060 let me tell

00:27:57.460 you.

00:27:58.540 There are

00:27:59.100 two people

00:27:59.620 who are

00:28:00.040 absolute

00:28:00.500 experts at

00:28:01.400 arm-flapping

00:28:02.080 flight.

00:28:03.340 I can't

00:28:03.940 tell you who

00:28:04.280 their names

00:28:04.600 are, but

00:28:05.100 those two

00:28:05.500 people who

00:28:05.900 are experts

00:28:06.340 at flapping

00:28:07.140 your arms

00:28:07.580 and flying,

00:28:08.800 they both

00:28:09.480 said that

00:28:10.040 I can

00:28:10.340 do it.

00:28:11.460 So now

00:28:11.840 don't you

00:28:12.160 feel stupid?

00:28:13.540 Sure, when

00:28:14.040 I said I

00:28:14.700 could flap

00:28:15.100 my arms

00:28:15.500 and fly,

00:28:16.720 well, okay,

00:28:17.400 skepticism

00:28:17.980 might have

00:28:18.720 been appropriate.

00:28:20.000 I can see

00:28:20.440 that.

00:28:21.080 But now

00:28:21.460 that you

00:28:21.720 know that

00:28:22.060 there are

00:28:22.260 two people

00:28:22.700 whose names

00:28:23.120 I haven't

00:28:23.540 given you

00:28:24.080 who say

00:28:25.100 I can

00:28:25.420 totally fly

00:28:26.040 by flapping

00:28:26.580 my arms,

00:28:27.780 I guess

00:28:28.780 you're convinced

00:28:29.280 now, aren't

00:28:29.820 you?

00:28:30.580 Aren't you?

00:28:31.740 Not only

00:28:32.340 that, but

00:28:33.320 the person

00:28:33.780 in the media

00:28:34.460 who I

00:28:35.740 told anonymously

00:28:37.340 that I

00:28:37.960 can fly

00:28:38.320 by flapping

00:28:38.820 my arms

00:28:39.220 and then

00:28:39.820 he wrote

00:28:40.100 a story

00:28:40.480 about it,

00:28:41.400 well, now

00:28:41.780 there are

00:28:42.040 two sources.

00:28:43.120 There's me

00:28:43.680 telling you I

00:28:44.420 can fly

00:28:44.960 by flapping

00:28:45.420 my arms,

00:28:45.960 but don't

00:28:46.260 believe me,

00:28:47.400 look at

00:28:48.000 the news.

00:28:48.940 The news

00:28:49.360 says I

00:28:49.740 can fly

00:28:50.040 by flapping

00:28:50.540 my arms.

00:28:51.160 Yes, well,

00:28:51.600 that's true,

00:28:52.140 I did give

00:28:53.260 the news

00:28:53.620 that story

00:28:54.160 and asked

00:28:54.460 them to

00:28:54.740 publish it,

00:28:55.520 but it's

00:28:56.200 still two

00:28:56.600 sources.

00:28:57.920 Two sources

00:28:58.440 is good.

00:28:59.480 Well, they're

00:28:59.820 really one

00:29:00.280 source coming

00:29:01.360 out of two

00:29:01.720 places, but

00:29:02.300 still good.

00:29:03.140 apparently

00:29:06.460 there's a

00:29:06.900 history of

00:29:07.460 Russian mothers,

00:29:09.300 mothers of

00:29:10.080 soldiers,

00:29:10.880 being influential

00:29:11.940 at least in

00:29:12.660 Afghanistan,

00:29:13.760 allegedly they

00:29:14.500 made a

00:29:14.820 difference,

00:29:15.620 and now the

00:29:16.460 Russian soldier

00:29:17.320 mothers are

00:29:17.960 getting involved,

00:29:19.440 and there

00:29:21.000 are reports,

00:29:22.140 again, would

00:29:23.480 you believe

00:29:23.940 these reports

00:29:24.700 are true?

00:29:26.600 This sounds

00:29:27.040 like Ukrainian

00:29:27.900 disinformation,

00:29:29.540 but the story

00:29:30.240 is that the

00:29:30.940 Russian conscripts

00:29:32.460 thought they

00:29:33.540 were going

00:29:33.860 on a

00:29:34.120 training

00:29:34.380 exercise and

00:29:35.220 did not

00:29:35.640 know they

00:29:35.960 were going

00:29:36.280 to an

00:29:36.580 actual war.

00:29:38.280 Do you

00:29:38.680 believe that?

00:29:40.200 Do you

00:29:40.860 believe that

00:29:42.300 the Russian

00:29:42.780 conscripts did

00:29:44.700 not know they

00:29:45.460 were going

00:29:45.820 to a real

00:29:46.440 war?

00:29:48.500 I'm going to

00:29:49.180 put that in

00:29:49.880 the list of

00:29:50.560 things which I

00:29:51.420 say is very

00:29:52.300 unlikely, but

00:29:53.640 it's being

00:29:53.960 reported as

00:29:54.620 true.

00:29:55.760 Now, I do

00:29:56.780 believe that the

00:29:57.440 Russian soldiers

00:29:58.220 are not allowed

00:29:58.920 to have phones,

00:30:00.640 but don't you

00:30:02.220 think that

00:30:02.680 the leaders

00:30:04.180 would know

00:30:04.600 if they're

00:30:04.900 going to

00:30:05.300 war?

00:30:06.420 You don't

00:30:07.140 think the

00:30:07.520 soldiers had

00:30:08.900 some inkling

00:30:11.100 that when

00:30:11.640 they landed

00:30:12.980 in Belarus

00:30:13.680 that that was

00:30:14.860 close to

00:30:15.360 Ukraine and

00:30:16.240 maybe something

00:30:17.220 was happening

00:30:17.760 there that

00:30:18.220 they'd heard

00:30:18.580 about?

00:30:20.120 Yeah.

00:30:20.920 Somebody says

00:30:21.660 they think it's

00:30:22.160 true.

00:30:22.520 I'm going to

00:30:23.040 say it's not

00:30:23.820 impossible, but

00:30:25.520 I would say the

00:30:25.980 odds of it being

00:30:26.620 true are pretty

00:30:27.140 low.

00:30:27.400 But nonetheless,

00:30:32.060 I would say

00:30:32.620 that the

00:30:33.060 Russian mothers

00:30:34.000 do not know

00:30:34.900 what harm

00:30:35.740 their children

00:30:36.260 are in.

00:30:37.340 And I would

00:30:37.780 say that we

00:30:39.320 should make

00:30:39.800 sure that they

00:30:40.320 know that.

00:30:41.540 So I'd love

00:30:42.060 to know what

00:30:42.600 we're doing

00:30:43.120 CIA-wise to

00:30:45.540 inform the

00:30:46.360 Russian public

00:30:47.260 of what their

00:30:47.960 government is

00:30:48.580 doing.

00:30:49.320 Because maybe

00:30:49.840 that's the

00:30:50.240 whole key.

00:30:51.180 If you can

00:30:51.560 find some way

00:30:52.160 to inform the

00:30:52.900 Russian public

00:30:53.620 of what's

00:30:54.540 actually happened,

00:30:55.380 maybe it

00:30:55.920 makes a

00:30:56.180 difference.

00:30:57.400 Lucas Tomlinson,

00:30:58.860 who reports

00:31:00.140 for Fox

00:31:00.560 News, had

00:31:02.260 this provocative

00:31:02.920 tweet.

00:31:03.360 He said,

00:31:03.620 it's been

00:31:03.840 three days

00:31:04.400 since Pentagon

00:31:05.040 first called

00:31:05.780 the long

00:31:06.280 Russian military

00:31:07.160 convoy outside

00:31:08.760 Ukraine's

00:31:09.320 capital as

00:31:09.980 stalled.

00:31:11.680 Many now

00:31:12.300 wondering where

00:31:12.940 the Russian

00:31:13.400 soldiers are.

00:31:14.900 U.S.

00:31:15.240 officials think,

00:31:16.400 quote,

00:31:16.700 something must

00:31:17.460 be wrong.

00:31:19.720 Something must

00:31:20.640 be wrong.

00:31:22.500 Well,

00:31:22.880 yes.

00:31:24.080 A 40-mile

00:31:24.960 convoy that

00:31:25.820 doesn't seem

00:31:26.320 to be moving

00:31:26.880 anywhere,

00:31:27.240 during the

00:31:27.900 middle of

00:31:28.460 a war.

00:31:30.040 Let me

00:31:30.460 tell you,

00:31:31.360 something looks

00:31:32.080 like it's

00:31:32.440 wrong.

00:31:33.400 Now,

00:31:33.620 some have

00:31:33.920 suggested that

00:31:34.620 they're just

00:31:34.960 waiting until

00:31:35.660 their moment

00:31:36.260 to come in

00:31:37.460 and occupy

00:31:38.100 or something.

00:31:38.960 Some have

00:31:39.400 said that's

00:31:39.940 the distance

00:31:40.440 that their

00:31:40.800 artillery works,

00:31:41.900 so why would

00:31:42.320 they get

00:31:42.580 any closer?

00:31:43.400 Well,

00:31:44.060 that doesn't

00:31:44.620 make sense

00:31:45.040 to me.

00:31:45.360 And we

00:31:50.100 know that

00:31:50.500 the Ukraine

00:31:51.620 special forces

00:31:52.920 are taking

00:31:53.520 out the

00:31:53.880 supply lines.

00:31:57.260 But I

00:31:57.980 think if I

00:31:58.940 read between

00:31:59.420 the lines,

00:32:00.640 isn't Lucas

00:32:01.420 Tomlinson

00:32:01.860 asking why

00:32:03.380 there's so

00:32:04.160 much equipment

00:32:04.860 but not that

00:32:05.520 many soldiers?

00:32:06.080 Is the story

00:32:08.380 that there

00:32:09.040 doesn't seem

00:32:09.540 to be anybody

00:32:10.100 in the trucks?

00:32:11.380 That they

00:32:11.860 don't appear

00:32:12.320 manned?

00:32:16.380 Because we

00:32:17.100 haven't seen

00:32:17.520 people walk

00:32:18.120 around.

00:32:18.920 Now,

00:32:19.520 what happens

00:32:20.160 when the

00:32:20.600 people just

00:32:21.200 try to keep

00:32:21.700 warm by

00:32:23.080 staying inside

00:32:23.860 an idling

00:32:24.420 vehicle?

00:32:25.620 We run

00:32:26.060 out of gas.

00:32:27.220 So the

00:32:27.820 soldiers can't

00:32:28.520 really stay

00:32:28.980 in the vehicles

00:32:29.680 idling,

00:32:31.080 because they'd

00:32:31.880 run out of

00:32:32.300 gas.

00:32:33.440 And they

00:32:34.120 can't stand

00:32:34.560 outside,

00:32:35.460 because it's

00:32:36.540 probably too

00:32:36.980 cold.

00:32:38.300 So where

00:32:39.040 are the

00:32:39.300 soldiers?

00:32:40.720 Have the

00:32:41.360 soldiers left?

00:32:44.020 That's a

00:32:44.620 pretty good

00:32:44.880 question.

00:32:46.400 All right,

00:32:46.520 here's the

00:32:46.800 second question.

00:32:48.720 Is it

00:32:49.000 possible that

00:32:49.680 Putin brought

00:32:50.200 in a whole

00:32:51.080 bunch of

00:32:51.580 old equipment

00:32:52.380 as decoys

00:32:53.240 and built

00:32:54.340 a 40-mile

00:32:55.540 decoy army

00:32:56.600 that has

00:32:57.660 almost no

00:32:58.240 fighting soldiers

00:32:59.080 but a lot

00:32:59.520 of old trucks

00:33:00.160 and shit

00:33:00.500 you didn't

00:33:00.880 need anyway?

00:33:02.580 Is that

00:33:02.900 possible?

00:33:03.960 That he's

00:33:04.520 getting the

00:33:05.480 defenses to

00:33:06.680 focus on a

00:33:07.300 bunch of

00:33:07.580 old trucks

00:33:08.120 and equipment

00:33:08.820 and they were

00:33:09.340 never meant

00:33:09.780 to actually

00:33:10.220 attack?

00:33:10.720 Does

00:33:12.940 anybody do

00:33:13.440 anything that

00:33:14.280 clever?

00:33:16.320 In my

00:33:17.020 mind, that's

00:33:17.520 too clever,

00:33:18.440 because I

00:33:18.720 think we

00:33:19.040 would have

00:33:19.320 noticed if

00:33:20.020 it were not

00:33:21.000 an operational

00:33:21.720 convoy.

00:33:22.680 I think we

00:33:23.260 would have

00:33:23.540 noticed,

00:33:24.160 wouldn't we?

00:33:27.460 They're being

00:33:28.160 attacked by

00:33:28.980 Ukrainian air.

00:33:33.720 Yeah,

00:33:34.340 code reuse.

00:33:35.000 There are

00:33:35.240 multiple stories

00:33:36.160 about convoys

00:33:37.280 heading to a

00:33:37.840 capital.

00:33:38.140 this would

00:33:39.400 be the

00:33:39.760 third story

00:33:40.400 about a

00:33:40.760 convoy

00:33:41.180 heading to

00:33:41.600 a capital,

00:33:42.220 right?

00:33:42.940 Canada,

00:33:43.660 the U.S.

00:33:44.360 trucking convoy

00:33:45.300 right now,

00:33:45.860 and now

00:33:46.140 these trucks

00:33:47.240 going to the

00:33:47.760 capital.

00:33:54.460 All right.

00:33:56.780 And apparently

00:33:57.540 the airspace is

00:33:58.420 not being

00:33:58.880 controlled.

00:33:59.380 now, this

00:34:00.960 whole NATO

00:34:02.800 line in the

00:34:05.620 sand that

00:34:06.160 seems to be

00:34:06.700 holding is

00:34:07.840 weird to me

00:34:08.400 because NATO

00:34:09.020 can provide

00:34:10.240 weapons and

00:34:10.940 logistics support.

00:34:13.140 Why do we

00:34:13.880 think that

00:34:14.300 providing lethal

00:34:15.360 weapons is not

00:34:17.140 the same as

00:34:17.740 being in the

00:34:18.220 war?

00:34:19.280 Is it because

00:34:20.220 Russia is an

00:34:21.040 arms-producing

00:34:21.880 country?

00:34:22.280 If Russia were

00:34:24.260 not an arms-producing

00:34:25.600 country, whose

00:34:27.080 entire business

00:34:27.920 model has to

00:34:28.780 be, hey,

00:34:29.560 we're not in

00:34:30.120 this war,

00:34:30.580 we're just

00:34:30.880 selling you

00:34:31.280 weapons?

00:34:32.100 Oh, no.

00:34:33.200 Oh, no, we're

00:34:33.780 not part of

00:34:34.240 the war.

00:34:36.180 You can't

00:34:36.880 attack us for

00:34:37.540 selling weapons.

00:34:38.220 We're just

00:34:38.760 commerce.

00:34:40.040 We just sell

00:34:40.460 weapons.

00:34:41.800 So I think

00:34:42.480 because Russia

00:34:43.120 does that,

00:34:44.500 and they get

00:34:45.120 away with that

00:34:45.600 ridiculous claim

00:34:46.540 that they're not

00:34:47.080 in the war,

00:34:47.860 they're just

00:34:48.220 providing lethal

00:34:48.980 weapons to the

00:34:49.660 war, that we

00:34:50.860 get to say the

00:34:51.500 same thing.

00:34:52.000 And if

00:34:53.400 Russia were

00:34:55.140 not a big

00:34:55.800 arms-producing

00:34:56.720 and selling

00:34:57.280 country, I

00:34:57.860 think it's

00:34:58.060 like their

00:34:58.360 second-biggest

00:34:59.260 industry or

00:34:59.940 something,

00:35:01.140 would NATO

00:35:03.780 be able to

00:35:04.320 get away with

00:35:04.960 the same

00:35:05.300 bullshit theory?

00:35:06.500 No, we're

00:35:07.400 not involved in

00:35:08.540 the war.

00:35:09.400 We're just

00:35:10.020 giving them all

00:35:10.640 the weapons and

00:35:11.300 training and

00:35:11.780 logistics.

00:35:12.660 That's all.

00:35:16.220 It does feel

00:35:17.120 like violating the

00:35:17.900 prime directive.

00:35:18.660 That is correct.

00:35:19.860 That is correct.

00:35:22.000 Yeah, and

00:35:22.680 fentanyl is the

00:35:23.660 same thing.

00:35:25.360 China's not

00:35:26.120 making you take

00:35:27.160 fentanyl.

00:35:28.620 No, they're

00:35:29.620 just providing

00:35:30.260 precursors to

00:35:31.360 the cartels.

00:35:32.780 That's okay.

00:35:33.540 That's not a war.

00:35:34.760 Even if it kills

00:35:35.500 50,000 to 100,000

00:35:36.960 Americans a year

00:35:37.780 intentionally, that's

00:35:38.700 not a war.

00:35:39.560 We're just selling

00:35:40.300 stuff.

00:35:41.260 It's the other

00:35:41.780 people, the people

00:35:42.520 buying it, who are

00:35:43.560 making the war.

00:35:44.840 No, not the

00:35:45.820 people selling it.

00:35:47.060 It's a ridiculous

00:35:48.080 standard.

00:35:50.280 How do we

00:35:50.880 drift into such a

00:35:51.820 ridiculous standard?

00:35:53.100 The standard always

00:35:54.140 should have been, if

00:35:55.840 you give weapons to

00:35:56.780 my enemy, I get to

00:35:57.840 kill you.

00:35:59.480 That always should

00:36:00.220 have been the

00:36:00.560 standard.

00:36:01.540 But somehow the

00:36:02.260 world has accepted

00:36:03.100 this standard.

00:36:05.980 Am I wrong that

00:36:07.000 it's a ridiculous

00:36:07.700 standard?

00:36:09.560 If somebody hands

00:36:11.680 my enemy who says

00:36:13.160 he's going to kill

00:36:13.720 me, hands that

00:36:15.160 person a gun, and

00:36:16.260 they start shooting

00:36:16.920 at me, I would

00:36:18.020 kill both of them

00:36:18.880 without, I mean, if

00:36:21.260 I could do it

00:36:21.780 legally and I

00:36:22.840 could get away

00:36:23.300 with it, I would

00:36:24.420 kill the person who

00:36:25.200 handed them the

00:36:25.820 gun, wouldn't you?

00:36:27.700 If that person knew

00:36:28.980 what the gun was

00:36:29.700 going to be used

00:36:30.220 for.

00:36:31.900 They're equally

00:36:32.800 marked for death, in

00:36:34.520 my opinion.

00:36:35.220 In fact, if I got

00:36:37.020 one over on the

00:36:38.060 person who had the

00:36:38.860 gun, like let's say

00:36:39.880 I somehow prevailed,

00:36:41.580 I would just shoot

00:36:42.800 the guy that handed

00:36:43.460 it to him, even if

00:36:45.320 he wasn't coming at

00:36:46.120 me.

00:36:46.280 I would just

00:36:47.400 say, you just

00:36:48.240 gave this guy this

00:36:48.940 fucking gun, I'm

00:36:50.020 glad I won the

00:36:50.680 fight, and killed

00:36:51.980 him, and now

00:36:53.400 you're dead.

00:36:54.520 I would just kill

00:36:55.280 him where I stood

00:36:55.900 if he handed the

00:36:57.360 gun to the guy who

00:36:58.040 shot at me.

00:37:00.080 Wouldn't you?

00:37:01.600 Who wouldn't?

00:37:02.760 I mean, you've

00:37:03.560 got the legal

00:37:04.080 problem that it

00:37:04.860 wouldn't be

00:37:05.220 technically self-defense

00:37:06.340 so you'd go to

00:37:07.060 jail forever.

00:37:08.540 I'd still do it.

00:37:10.740 I'd still do it.

00:37:13.140 I'd probably have

00:37:13.940 to find a knife to

00:37:15.100 put it in his hand

00:37:15.760 or something, but

00:37:16.380 I'd still do it.

00:37:18.380 There's no doubt

00:37:19.160 I'd kill him.

00:37:20.200 I'm pretty sure

00:37:20.900 about that.

00:37:26.020 Now, that would

00:37:26.700 be a good movie,

00:37:27.480 somebody says.

00:37:28.220 It'd be the first

00:37:28.780 good movie.

00:37:30.960 Well, I guess the

00:37:31.780 U.S. is actually

00:37:33.640 talking about banning

00:37:34.620 Russian oil purchases

00:37:35.720 being the most

00:37:37.700 obvious thing that

00:37:38.480 we should do.

00:37:39.040 but I wonder, I've

00:37:43.400 got some questions

00:37:44.080 about the economics

00:37:45.020 of oil.

00:37:47.880 Why is it that the

00:37:49.660 price is going up

00:37:50.820 as opposed to us

00:37:52.500 talking about not

00:37:53.340 having oil?

00:37:55.380 I feel like,

00:37:57.440 shouldn't we be

00:37:58.100 saying it's not

00:37:58.980 about the price,

00:37:59.740 it's about somebody

00:38:00.380 who won't have

00:38:01.000 any?

00:38:01.220 So let's say

00:38:02.920 in California

00:38:03.580 we pay $8 a gallon

00:38:05.820 someday.

00:38:07.500 Doesn't that mean

00:38:08.320 that Lithuania

00:38:09.540 doesn't have any

00:38:10.220 gas?

00:38:10.980 Or whoever is

00:38:12.320 the person who

00:38:12.820 didn't get it

00:38:13.480 because we bought

00:38:14.220 the limited supply?

00:38:16.000 Doesn't that mean

00:38:16.640 that there will be

00:38:17.180 some poor countries

00:38:19.240 that just won't

00:38:19.840 have gas?

00:38:21.880 Isn't that the

00:38:22.540 big problem?

00:38:23.560 We're talking about

00:38:24.420 our inflation over

00:38:25.840 here.

00:38:26.040 Oh, my gas prices

00:38:28.240 will be higher,

00:38:28.900 which is a big deal.

00:38:29.680 I mean, it's a big

00:38:30.460 hardship.

00:38:31.740 But isn't the

00:38:33.160 bigger problem

00:38:33.780 that there are

00:38:34.220 going to be poor

00:38:34.740 countries with no

00:38:35.800 energy, like none,

00:38:38.320 because they won't

00:38:39.300 be able to pay

00:38:39.880 anything like $8 a

00:38:41.400 gallon.

00:38:43.620 Right?

00:38:45.120 So I think we're

00:38:46.260 talking about the

00:38:46.880 wrong stuff.

00:38:47.900 Likewise, when we're

00:38:48.720 talking about the

00:38:49.620 Ukraine war, the

00:38:51.420 media, of course,

00:38:52.160 focuses on all the

00:38:53.220 sexy stuff like the

00:38:54.640 military and the

00:38:56.620 death.

00:38:58.160 But the Ukraine,

00:38:59.180 the Ukraine problem

00:39:01.280 is a humanitarian

00:39:02.440 crisis, not just

00:39:04.560 the immigrants or

00:39:06.500 the people migrating

00:39:07.360 out.

00:39:08.020 But also, how are

00:39:09.120 you going to feed

00:39:09.520 the people who

00:39:10.040 are there?

00:39:11.000 What happens when

00:39:11.660 the breadbasket of

00:39:12.880 Europe gets, you

00:39:14.440 know, destroyed?

00:39:16.460 So maybe we should be

00:39:17.740 talking a lot more

00:39:18.600 about how we're going

00:39:19.580 to feed people and

00:39:20.540 get some attention

00:39:22.420 on that.

00:39:23.960 Do you think that

00:39:24.780 the U.S. will ban

00:39:25.700 Russian oil purchases?

00:39:27.280 Because I guess

00:39:27.880 Europe is talking

00:39:28.680 about it, too, and

00:39:29.300 I don't see how

00:39:30.200 Europe could do it.

00:39:31.640 I could imagine the

00:39:32.840 United States banning

00:39:33.840 it because it's 25%.

00:39:35.200 I feel like we could

00:39:37.320 manage 25%.

00:39:38.980 What do you think?

00:39:41.440 I feel like the

00:39:42.600 United States could

00:39:43.720 handle a Russian ban.

00:39:45.660 25%, and I'll say

00:39:47.440 this based on the

00:39:49.180 totality of life

00:39:52.700 experience plus some

00:39:54.440 economic training.

00:39:56.720 You can make people

00:39:58.140 handle 25% of

00:39:59.560 anything.

00:40:00.940 Just a general rule.

00:40:02.540 You can change

00:40:03.180 anything by 25%, and

00:40:05.580 about 80% of the time

00:40:06.940 people will just

00:40:07.580 adjust.

00:40:08.680 If it's bigger than

00:40:09.560 that, then, you know,

00:40:10.440 it gets harder and

00:40:11.040 harder.

00:40:11.920 But a 25% adjustment

00:40:13.560 to something with a

00:40:15.020 fungible asset, you

00:40:16.740 know, with lots of

00:40:17.320 moving parts where they

00:40:18.300 can produce more kind

00:40:19.480 of quickly, and, you

00:40:21.280 know, they can do

00:40:21.760 things because it's,

00:40:22.560 like, a bigger profit

00:40:24.460 temporarily.

00:40:28.160 Are we going to talk

00:40:29.020 about the biolab

00:40:30.000 conspiracy now?

00:40:31.320 I'm not going to.

00:40:32.700 The idea that there

00:40:33.820 are biolabs at

00:40:34.700 Ukraine, and that was

00:40:35.580 part of the story.

00:40:36.280 No, I don't believe

00:40:36.780 any of that.

00:40:38.060 If I saw anything

00:40:38.920 credible, I'd talk

00:40:39.800 about it, but there's

00:40:40.280 nothing credible yet

00:40:41.520 in that story.

00:40:43.840 All right.

00:40:45.260 So I think if I had

00:40:46.940 to predict, I'll

00:40:47.900 predict that for

00:40:48.680 political reasons,

00:40:49.720 we'll at least

00:40:50.380 announce we're going

00:40:51.460 to stop buying

00:40:52.260 Russian oil.

00:40:53.580 But I'll bet we'll

00:40:54.340 have to phase it

00:40:55.180 out.

00:40:56.260 We're not going to

00:40:56.980 say, you know,

00:40:57.580 turn it off today.

00:40:58.860 I think we'll phase

00:40:59.860 it out, which means

00:41:00.640 it'll take so long

00:41:01.420 to do that it won't

00:41:02.260 really be anything

00:41:02.980 except an announcement.

00:41:05.020 So I think we're

00:41:05.840 going to say we're

00:41:06.460 doing it, but do it

00:41:07.300 in such a small way

00:41:08.480 that it would be

00:41:09.300 almost like we

00:41:10.040 didn't do it.

00:41:11.320 That would be my

00:41:11.980 guess, because it's

00:41:12.900 more of a political

00:41:13.600 problem than a

00:41:14.460 practical problem.

00:41:17.400 All right.

00:41:17.880 All right.

00:41:17.940 All right.

00:41:17.980 What do you say

00:41:25.920 about today's news?

00:41:35.280 Putin needs a

00:41:36.280 double buffer zone.

00:41:38.440 Oh, the Iran deal.

00:41:39.720 Yeah.

00:41:40.620 So since everything

00:41:43.320 is connected, there's

00:41:45.040 some thinking that

00:41:46.260 we can get Russia

00:41:48.940 to be flexible about

00:41:50.240 an Iran deal in a

00:41:52.000 way that they've

00:41:52.520 never been if we

00:41:54.080 package it with

00:41:54.980 something they want

00:41:55.840 regarding Ukraine.

00:41:57.980 What do you think

00:41:58.500 about that?

00:42:01.460 My negotiating

00:42:02.720 technique is that

00:42:04.840 when you get to the

00:42:05.520 point where you can't

00:42:06.880 negotiate a settlement

00:42:07.900 as in Ukraine,

00:42:09.720 they don't really have

00:42:10.900 a deal that they

00:42:11.560 could agree to,

00:42:13.000 that the way you get

00:42:13.840 to the deal you

00:42:14.680 can't agree to is

00:42:15.560 you have to start

00:42:16.020 throwing more things

00:42:17.000 into the deal.

00:42:18.320 So you start throwing

00:42:19.120 Iran into the deal,

00:42:20.340 you start throwing

00:42:20.880 energy into the deal,

00:42:22.000 you start, you know,

00:42:23.680 you just throw

00:42:24.220 everything into it.

00:42:25.560 And then see if that

00:42:26.920 changes the balance

00:42:27.780 and you can make a deal.

00:42:30.620 So what I know

00:42:32.960 about the Iran deal

00:42:34.000 sounds like, I don't

00:42:36.740 know, it feels like

00:42:37.320 any deal we make

00:42:38.660 with Iran still lets

00:42:39.680 them build a nuclear

00:42:40.480 weapon.

00:42:41.820 Am I wrong?

00:42:42.380 Anything that they

00:42:44.360 would agree to

00:42:45.120 would give them

00:42:46.440 at least a secret

00:42:48.140 way to do it.

00:42:51.820 Sorry, Ukraine

00:42:52.780 will decide the deal,

00:42:53.900 Scott, not the U.S.

00:42:55.060 I don't think so.

00:42:56.800 Do you think Ukraine

00:42:57.640 will decide on the deal

00:42:58.740 and not the U.S.?

00:43:00.660 Zelensky is a U.S.

00:43:02.620 puppet.

00:43:04.400 So, in my opinion,

00:43:06.620 Zelensky would agree

00:43:07.800 with whatever the U.S.

00:43:08.840 told him he had to

00:43:09.540 agree to,

00:43:10.020 because it would be

00:43:11.500 an existential

00:43:12.300 problem.

00:43:14.940 Existential,

00:43:15.480 meaning he could die

00:43:16.720 if he does the wrong

00:43:17.320 thing.

00:43:19.440 New York Times,

00:43:20.360 Friedman is asking

00:43:21.100 China, whose side

00:43:22.000 are you on?

00:43:22.520 Well, that's obvious.

00:43:26.620 Zelensky was elected.

00:43:27.760 Yes, he was.

00:43:28.340 He's still a puppet.

00:43:33.460 DeSantos claims Fauci

00:43:35.060 is under federal

00:43:35.780 witness protection now.

00:43:37.020 So, that's just

00:43:38.520 hyperbole.

00:43:44.620 Siberia has a lot

00:43:45.460 of exploitation to

00:43:46.360 have, probably,

00:43:47.580 for minerals.

00:43:53.940 All right.

00:43:56.340 Yeah, I'm not going

00:43:57.100 to talk about masks.

00:43:58.420 I'm done with that.

00:43:59.120 How many people think

00:44:01.320 that there's a

00:44:02.120 global recession

00:44:05.000 coming?

00:44:06.920 Here's what I would

00:44:07.860 add to your

00:44:09.180 economic concerns.

00:44:11.880 The, you can't

00:44:13.080 look at history

00:44:13.820 to figure out

00:44:15.380 what's going to

00:44:15.820 happen next.

00:44:17.720 Because you can't

00:44:18.740 look at anything

00:44:19.360 pre-internet

00:44:20.320 and, and,

00:44:21.960 and predict

00:44:24.440 post-internet.

00:44:25.700 Actually, let me

00:44:26.420 make that as a,

00:44:27.360 Scott's rule

00:44:28.820 of predicting.

00:44:30.340 All right.

00:44:30.620 The Adams rule

00:44:31.440 of predicting.

00:44:31.940 Everything you

00:44:33.580 could predict

00:44:34.120 before the

00:44:34.760 internet has

00:44:36.100 to be rethought.

00:44:37.160 It doesn't mean

00:44:37.580 it's different.

00:44:38.420 But you'd have

00:44:38.820 to rethink

00:44:39.480 every prediction

00:44:40.180 that would have

00:44:40.600 made complete

00:44:41.220 sense before

00:44:41.960 the internet.

00:44:42.920 You have to

00:44:43.480 evaluate it

00:44:44.140 in the

00:44:44.440 after-internet

00:44:45.340 world.

00:44:46.600 And here's

00:44:47.100 what I mean.

00:44:48.660 In the,

00:44:49.460 was it,

00:44:50.020 when was the

00:44:50.620 Great Depression?

00:44:51.800 39?

00:44:54.000 Some historian,

00:44:55.280 can you,

00:44:55.620 what was the date?

00:44:56.760 29, yes.

00:44:57.820 29.

00:44:58.360 I'm sorry.

00:44:58.680 I confuse it

00:45:00.200 with World War II.

00:45:01.440 So, 29 was

00:45:02.340 the Great Depression.

00:45:04.560 In 29,

00:45:05.280 that was pre-internet.

00:45:07.100 Now, what's

00:45:07.960 different when

00:45:08.460 you have the

00:45:08.900 internet and

00:45:10.280 you have global

00:45:11.220 everything and

00:45:12.240 everything's

00:45:12.800 fungible,

00:45:13.720 meaning you

00:45:14.640 can, you

00:45:15.080 can move

00:45:15.460 goods around

00:45:16.140 wherever you

00:45:16.740 need them?

00:45:19.420 I think in

00:45:20.300 this world,

00:45:21.440 we adjust,

00:45:22.820 we adjust to

00:45:24.180 inefficiencies so

00:45:25.900 fast that it,

00:45:28.680 makes the odds

00:45:29.860 of a complete

00:45:31.580 economic meltdown

00:45:33.260 almost zero.

00:45:35.560 So, in other

00:45:36.060 words, right now,

00:45:37.380 because gas,

00:45:38.300 you know,

00:45:38.980 gas prices are

00:45:39.720 high, you

00:45:41.260 should assume

00:45:42.000 that the,

00:45:43.600 the people in

00:45:46.280 the, you know,

00:45:47.000 the Hunt oil

00:45:48.180 company in

00:45:48.840 Texas just

00:45:51.020 made a huge

00:45:52.560 amount of

00:45:53.520 energy, you

00:45:54.660 know, mean

00:45:55.320 investment in

00:45:56.720 drilling and

00:45:57.540 producing oil.

00:45:59.640 So, probably,

00:46:01.280 the entire oil

00:46:02.100 industry just

00:46:03.020 went to, you

00:46:04.260 know, DEFCON 10

00:46:05.440 and is just

00:46:06.820 doing everything

00:46:08.260 it can to

00:46:08.900 figure out how

00:46:09.320 to produce

00:46:09.820 more energy.

00:46:11.380 Likewise, you're

00:46:13.060 going to see

00:46:13.320 more stuff in

00:46:13.940 nuclear, you're

00:46:14.740 going to see

00:46:14.960 more stuff

00:46:15.380 everywhere.

00:46:15.680 going to see

00:46:16.680 more stuff in

00:46:17.320 the world.

00:46:17.680 So, I think

00:46:18.520 that the

00:46:18.940 existence of

00:46:19.620 the internet

00:46:20.140 allows us to

00:46:22.080 do something

00:46:22.560 that would be

00:46:23.080 greatly

00:46:23.440 destabilizing in

00:46:24.680 a pre-internet

00:46:25.440 world, but

00:46:26.540 will not be as

00:46:28.280 destabilizing

00:46:29.100 post-internet.

00:46:30.360 Because the

00:46:31.440 internet tells you

00:46:32.440 where the

00:46:32.760 problems are, and

00:46:34.240 then it directs

00:46:34.920 resources toward it

00:46:35.980 that never existed

00:46:37.500 before.

00:46:38.420 Pre-internet, if

00:46:40.300 somebody wanted to

00:46:40.980 hire somebody and

00:46:41.920 somebody wanted a

00:46:42.760 job, it was

00:46:44.140 hard to match

00:46:44.680 them up, unless

00:46:46.780 you lived in the

00:46:47.400 same town.

00:46:48.740 But after the

00:46:49.500 internet, every

00:46:50.440 opportunity can be

00:46:51.440 matched with the

00:46:52.440 solution, no

00:46:53.700 matter where the

00:46:54.320 solution is and no

00:46:55.120 matter where the

00:46:55.600 opportunity is.

00:46:57.600 So, in my view of

00:47:01.480 the world, the

00:47:02.380 risk of a

00:47:03.200 depression post-internet

00:47:06.260 is very small,

00:47:08.520 unless something

00:47:09.640 knocks out

00:47:10.060 communication, and

00:47:11.080 then all bets are

00:47:11.840 off.

00:47:12.760 So, communication

00:47:13.760 alone, and the

00:47:15.060 fact that we can

00:47:15.560 ship anything from

00:47:16.520 anywhere to

00:47:17.160 anywhere, should

00:47:18.760 keep us from the

00:47:19.880 worst-case scenario.

00:47:25.960 All right.

00:47:29.240 The Western

00:47:30.060 finance system may

00:47:31.420 be going downhill.

00:47:32.860 The finance system,

00:47:34.180 too, has that same

00:47:35.100 self-healing element

00:47:37.500 to it, I think.

00:47:38.880 That as long as you

00:47:39.620 have massive

00:47:40.120 communications,

00:47:40.900 everything that

00:47:42.820 breaks gets healed

00:47:44.180 fairly quickly.

00:47:47.580 You know, I often

00:47:48.640 write about this, that

00:47:50.180 civilization seems

00:47:52.060 like a fetus that's

00:47:55.540 being developed, and

00:47:56.940 it seems like the

00:47:57.620 internet is sort of

00:47:58.680 the central nervous

00:48:00.700 system or the

00:48:01.460 communication path for

00:48:03.540 the entity which is

00:48:05.200 all humans on earth.

00:48:06.260 So, once that

00:48:07.780 communication path is

00:48:08.860 in place, humans

00:48:10.640 create an almost

00:48:11.800 godlike power, because

00:48:14.000 all of our strengths

00:48:14.840 are combined, and we

00:48:16.020 can coordinate all of

00:48:17.300 our strengths.

00:48:18.160 It's almost godlike, but

00:48:20.180 the internet allows it.

00:48:23.940 Consider the negative

00:48:25.080 wealth effects, though.

00:48:27.080 Okay?

00:48:28.540 How can Zelensky be a

00:48:29.920 U.S. puppet and a

00:48:30.920 master persuader?

00:48:31.860 Easily.

00:48:32.180 Those are not even in

00:48:33.960 conflict.

00:48:35.000 It's not a coincidence

00:48:36.240 that Zelensky has

00:48:37.380 entertainment skills,

00:48:39.460 proven entertainment

00:48:40.400 skills, and he's, you

00:48:42.820 know, he's the person

00:48:46.200 that you see now.

00:48:47.360 He literally is an

00:48:48.460 actor.

00:48:49.940 So, did you see the

00:48:51.240 scene where he was

00:48:51.920 talking to the

00:48:52.760 journalists, and

00:48:54.580 instead of standing

00:48:55.300 behind the podium, he

00:48:57.440 grabbed a chair and he

00:48:58.500 sat on the edge of the

00:48:59.300 stage and shook hands

00:49:01.640 with them?

00:49:02.880 Now, that's what an

00:49:05.360 actor would know how

00:49:06.200 to do.

00:49:06.960 If you were doing a

00:49:07.800 movie, and you wanted

00:49:09.480 to show a scene where

00:49:11.040 the leader was a person

00:49:12.440 of the people, what

00:49:14.160 would he do?

00:49:15.280 The person of the

00:49:16.320 people in the movie

00:49:17.520 would walk past the

00:49:19.200 podium and grab a

00:49:20.940 chair and sit on the

00:49:22.020 edge of the stage and

00:49:22.900 reach down and start

00:49:23.560 shaking hands with the

00:49:24.680 audience, in this case

00:49:26.060 the journalists.

00:49:27.780 It looks exactly like a

00:49:29.820 movie.

00:49:30.100 And in fact, Ukraine

00:49:32.160 looks like it's in its

00:49:33.100 third act right now.

00:49:35.840 So, the fact that this

00:49:36.960 has such a movie, you

00:49:39.160 know, structure to it

00:49:40.100 is really, it should

00:49:42.220 open your eyes a little

00:49:43.240 bit about the nature of

00:49:45.000 reality.

00:49:46.120 Because the number of

00:49:47.100 times that reality

00:49:47.840 follows this three-act

00:49:49.580 movie structure, I don't

00:49:51.680 think it's a coincidence.

00:49:53.620 I mean, it could be

00:49:54.400 selective, you know, bias

00:49:56.820 on my part.

00:49:57.460 It could be.

00:49:58.960 But it sure looks

00:49:59.920 consistent.

00:50:02.460 All right.

00:50:06.040 As a wise man once

00:50:07.360 said, politics is

00:50:08.360 Hollywood for ugly

00:50:09.280 people.

00:50:16.640 He's a good actor.

00:50:17.800 He is.

00:50:18.200 All right.

00:50:22.700 Now, do you believe the

00:50:25.020 theory that the reason

00:50:27.420 that Putin has

00:50:28.300 miscalculated is that his

00:50:31.400 people won't tell him

00:50:32.660 the truth?

00:50:33.900 In other words, people

00:50:34.920 who work for him are

00:50:36.360 afraid to tell him his

00:50:37.480 ideas are bad.

00:50:38.740 How many of you think

00:50:39.840 that that's a thing?

00:50:40.760 I don't think it's a

00:50:47.300 thing either.

00:50:48.120 So the media is

00:50:49.900 reporting that Putin is

00:50:51.940 so isolated he doesn't

00:50:53.360 know that even his own

00:50:55.720 people think something's a

00:50:57.360 bad idea.

00:50:59.240 I don't think so.

00:51:01.060 I think Putin is

00:51:01.980 completely plugged in.

00:51:03.000 And I don't think that

00:51:06.260 his, in the real

00:51:08.600 world, the person who's

00:51:11.580 the best advisor to the

00:51:12.920 leader is the one who

00:51:13.760 does tell him when he's

00:51:14.760 wrong.

00:51:17.060 Let me test this against

00:51:19.000 your understanding of

00:51:20.500 things.

00:51:22.120 Leaders do have

00:51:22.880 sycophants and yes

00:51:23.920 men, right?

00:51:24.660 They have people who

00:51:25.500 disagree with them.

00:51:26.020 That's certainly the

00:51:26.980 case.

00:51:27.820 But isn't it your

00:51:28.860 experience that leaders

00:51:30.080 almost always, almost

00:51:32.300 always, have some

00:51:34.260 trusted advisors who

00:51:35.640 do disagree with them

00:51:36.740 and they require them.

00:51:39.960 Now, of course, if

00:51:40.900 you're a dictator, I

00:51:41.680 suppose you'd say,

00:51:42.820 nobody disagree with

00:51:44.100 me, I'll execute you.

00:51:46.500 But it wouldn't be good

00:51:47.800 for the dictator,

00:51:48.640 would it?

00:51:49.840 Anybody who's as

00:51:50.780 smart as Putin, and

00:51:52.820 no matter what you say

00:51:53.640 about him, he's not

00:51:55.600 dumb.

00:51:56.640 Anybody who's as

00:51:57.460 smart as Putin needs

00:51:59.860 somebody on his team

00:52:00.960 who can tell him when

00:52:02.080 he's wrong, and he

00:52:03.060 would want that.

00:52:04.840 So I don't believe he's

00:52:06.400 getting bad information.

00:52:09.040 Now, you heard the

00:52:09.880 same thing about Trump

00:52:10.800 from Democrats, right?

00:52:12.740 Didn't you hear the

00:52:13.480 same thing about Trump,

00:52:14.760 that Trump would only be

00:52:16.660 told things he wanted to

00:52:17.660 hear or else he'd get

00:52:18.540 real mad?

00:52:20.060 Total bullshit.

00:52:21.760 Total bullshit.

00:52:23.800 Trump, probably similar to

00:52:27.880 most people, would love to

00:52:29.760 hear a better opinion

00:52:31.300 that disagrees with

00:52:32.600 them.

00:52:33.760 Everybody likes a better

00:52:34.900 opinion.

00:52:36.160 People don't like equal or

00:52:37.900 bad opinions that disagree

00:52:39.020 with them.

00:52:39.520 But everybody likes a

00:52:40.660 better opinion that

00:52:42.120 disagrees with them.

00:52:43.340 They can hate it and love

00:52:44.360 it at the same time,

00:52:45.400 because everybody wants

00:52:46.460 the better opinion.

00:52:48.220 So they might hate the

00:52:49.300 fact that they have to

00:52:49.980 move from their old

00:52:50.640 opinion to the new one,

00:52:51.460 but they still want the

00:52:52.240 good opinion, like,

00:52:54.120 unless they're literally

00:52:54.920 crazy.

00:53:02.040 Fourth political theory is

00:53:03.540 the bad advice.

00:53:04.580 I don't know what that

00:53:05.140 means.

00:53:08.360 And I would say my own

00:53:10.040 experience with Trump,

00:53:12.280 when I got to meet him

00:53:13.800 and chat with him in the

00:53:14.700 Oval Office in 2018, my

00:53:16.860 own experience was that he

00:53:18.960 was absolutely listening

00:53:20.540 carefully to what I said.

00:53:22.760 And he wasn't telling me

00:53:23.840 what to think.

00:53:25.260 He was absolutely, he

00:53:27.140 literally asked my opinion.

00:53:29.380 Oh, actually, here's a

00:53:30.260 good example.

00:53:31.360 When I met with Trump, he

00:53:32.680 asked my opinion on a

00:53:33.780 specific thing, and I

00:53:35.280 disagreed with him.

00:53:37.780 I disagreed with him.

00:53:39.840 Did I have any problem?

00:53:42.220 No.

00:53:43.380 No.

00:53:43.940 It was actually just an

00:53:44.740 interesting conversation,

00:53:46.000 because my disagreement came

00:53:48.400 with reasons.

00:53:49.140 I gave my reasons.

00:53:51.820 He gave his reasons.

00:53:53.560 And by the way, when we

00:53:55.900 disagreed on the topic,

00:53:58.860 Trump was right.

00:54:00.660 So the thing we disagreed on,

00:54:03.200 he was right.

00:54:04.220 Because he predicted in 2018

00:54:05.820 that Biden was going to be his

00:54:07.320 big problem competition.

00:54:09.740 And I thought it was going to

00:54:10.540 be Kamala Harris.

00:54:11.980 So he was totally right.

00:54:13.200 But I would say he gave me

00:54:15.340 full attention and respect

00:54:18.960 and listened carefully when I

00:54:21.440 made my case, and then told me

00:54:23.440 his opinion.

00:54:24.520 So I didn't get anything like a

00:54:26.680 sense that disagreeing with him

00:54:28.220 would be any kind of a problem.

00:54:30.220 You just got to be able to

00:54:31.340 support it.

00:54:32.420 If you can't support your

00:54:33.520 opinion, you always think the

00:54:34.980 boss is an idiot.

00:54:36.880 Right?

00:54:37.380 I mean, I made a whole cartoon

00:54:39.340 based on that kind of

00:54:40.740 dynamic.

00:54:41.900 If you believe that you're

00:54:43.460 smarter than your boss, and

00:54:44.720 your boss doesn't take your

00:54:45.700 advice, you think the boss is

00:54:47.720 an idiot.

00:54:49.780 But that doesn't mean your

00:54:51.160 advice was good.

00:54:52.920 Maybe your advice was bad.

00:54:54.400 Maybe you're the idiot.

00:54:55.320 You can't tell.

00:54:59.060 All right.

00:55:00.780 Well, companies and countries

00:55:02.000 use the same template against

00:55:03.180 Trump that they used against

00:55:04.280 Putin.

00:55:04.700 You mean the boycotts and

00:55:07.880 stuff?

00:55:09.840 Any leader who does something

00:55:11.480 bad enough is going to get

00:55:12.740 boycotted, sure.

00:55:20.800 Oh, I've told you that one

00:55:22.780 piece of content about the

00:55:23.880 meeting before.

00:55:24.820 The reason that I told you

00:55:26.200 that piece of content is that

00:55:27.640 Trump was right.

00:55:29.740 You know, normally you wouldn't

00:55:31.380 want to talk about any

00:55:32.800 conversation you had with a

00:55:34.080 president.

00:55:35.000 That's just sort of standard

00:55:36.100 assumption.

00:55:37.780 You don't talk about what you

00:55:38.900 talked about with the

00:55:39.560 president.

00:55:40.300 But I made an exception

00:55:41.200 because he was just right.

00:55:43.120 I mean, he wouldn't mind,

00:55:44.000 right?

00:55:45.100 If somebody said, you know,

00:55:47.160 that cartoonist guy, he told

00:55:49.000 us what you said.

00:55:50.780 But he was right years before

00:55:52.840 it happened and

00:55:53.620 unambiguously right, so I don't

00:55:55.300 think he'd complain.

00:55:55.980 I think that's all we have to

00:56:13.560 say for today.

00:56:14.280 Yeah, did, how many of you saw

00:56:19.720 that John Daly thing where he

00:56:22.200 had a phone call with Trump

00:56:24.460 just recently, and he put the

00:56:26.440 phone call on the speaker, and

00:56:31.140 then somebody recorded it, and

00:56:32.660 then they played it?

00:56:35.240 If you were Trump, and you had

00:56:37.480 called John Daly, and he did that

00:56:39.280 to you, would you ever talk to

00:56:40.560 John Daly again?

00:56:42.960 Seriously.

00:56:43.900 Would you ever talk to John

00:56:45.480 Daly again about anything?

00:56:48.060 I would erase him from my life

00:56:50.520 that day.

00:56:51.760 I would never have another

00:56:53.000 contact with John Daly.

00:56:54.480 And by the way, if anybody takes

00:56:57.580 anything that you've sent them

00:56:58.720 privately and shares it, anything,

00:57:02.720 never talk to them again.

00:57:05.020 That's my rule, right?

00:57:06.940 And, you know, I followed that

00:57:09.820 rule.

00:57:10.440 If somebody shares a private

00:57:11.960 thing from you, never, ever talk

00:57:13.880 to them again about anything.

00:57:16.420 Period.

00:57:17.640 They're dead to you forever.

00:57:19.980 In fact, nobody should ever talk

00:57:22.440 to John Daly about anything.

00:57:25.860 Let me go a little stronger on

00:57:27.700 John Daly.

00:57:28.860 What he did to Trump isn't just a

00:57:32.200 bad thing he did to Trump.

00:57:34.500 If you were friends with John

00:57:36.200 Daly and you saw him do that to

00:57:38.180 Trump, who presumably was a

00:57:40.140 friend, would you be that

00:57:42.600 asshole's friend?

00:57:44.360 That is the biggest asshole move

00:57:46.720 you'll ever see.

00:57:48.600 I mean, that's asshole squared

00:57:51.080 right there.

00:57:52.280 Yeah, it's a security risk, too.

00:57:54.220 And, yeah, it's John Daly, the

00:57:56.160 golfer.

00:57:57.380 So Trump, you know, knows famous

00:57:59.600 golfers, of course.

00:58:00.420 But, man, that, to me, I mean, I

00:58:09.740 would never even shake that guy's

00:58:11.060 hand.

00:58:12.080 What John Daly did to Trump is so

00:58:15.220 disreputable.

00:58:16.680 Like, if I were introduced to him in

00:58:18.440 public, I couldn't even shake his

00:58:19.860 hand.

00:58:20.320 Like, I would be disgusted by that

00:58:21.820 guy.

00:58:22.740 I mean, that's as low as you can go.

00:58:25.580 You know, your friend calls you, and

00:58:27.540 you're selling out your friend as

00:58:29.580 you're talking to him.

00:58:31.380 You don't go lower than that.

00:58:33.960 That's as low as you can go.

00:58:43.620 Any chance he'd ask Trump's

00:58:45.360 permission?

00:58:45.940 No, there's no chance of that.

00:58:51.540 Maybe he told him that's what he was

00:58:52.980 going to do.

00:58:53.560 It didn't look like it.

00:58:54.380 When I shake hands with Obama, he

00:58:59.400 sold out our country, I would always

00:59:01.160 shake hands with a president, even

00:59:06.340 an ex-president, because you're, in

00:59:09.140 that case, you really are talking

00:59:11.100 about the office, even if it's an

00:59:12.720 ex-president.

00:59:14.080 So, yes, I would.

00:59:20.240 It's polite to let the caller know if

00:59:22.140 he's on a speakerphone.

00:59:23.020 Yeah, it's not just polite.

00:59:25.880 It's way past polite.

00:59:28.400 Somebody's saying that it's polite to

00:59:29.840 tell somebody if they're on the

00:59:30.760 speakerphone.

00:59:31.480 It's way past polite.

00:59:34.100 Like, that should be a requirement of

00:59:36.280 social existence.

00:59:40.260 Like, if somebody's impolite to you, you

00:59:42.100 might still talk to them later.

00:59:43.640 But if somebody puts you on the

00:59:44.860 speakerphone and doesn't tell you,

00:59:47.600 actually, that happened to me recently.

00:59:48.940 That actual thing happened to me

00:59:53.700 recently.

00:59:54.460 I was on a speakerphone and didn't

00:59:56.120 know it.

00:59:57.500 And I'll never talk to that person

00:59:59.780 again.

01:00:00.880 I will literally never talk to that

01:00:02.780 person again about anything for any

01:00:04.740 reason.

01:00:05.440 And they know it.

01:00:06.660 And by the way, that person is aware

01:00:08.720 of it.

01:00:09.900 We'll never, and before that, I had a

01:00:12.200 substantial, you know, connection.

01:00:14.360 But you do that once, and that's it.

01:00:17.520 There's no second chance for that

01:00:19.100 fucking shit.

01:00:20.360 Am I right?

01:00:21.780 Who would give somebody a second

01:00:23.600 chance after they did that?

01:00:26.260 Let me ask you that.

01:00:28.860 You don't give anybody a second

01:00:30.480 chance.

01:00:32.360 Yeah, no way.

01:00:33.720 Even if you didn't say anything

01:00:34.960 terribly damning, and I didn't, but

01:00:37.600 even if you didn't say anything

01:00:38.560 terribly damning, you'd never talk to

01:00:40.960 that person again.

01:00:42.200 You shouldn't.

01:00:42.720 Um, somebody said I would if they

01:00:47.140 were family.

01:00:48.060 Nope, not me.

01:00:50.420 Not me.

01:00:51.560 Somebody said that they would speak

01:00:53.100 to them again if they were family.

01:00:55.020 To which I say, no.

01:00:57.460 No, that's a forever problem.

01:00:59.780 If somebody in my family did that, I

01:01:01.460 would never speak to them again.

01:01:03.140 But nobody in my family would do

01:01:04.640 that.

01:01:08.580 Um, all right.

01:01:11.700 That's all for now.

01:01:12.500 I think I'm babbling.

01:01:13.520 And I will talk to you on

01:01:14.520 YouTube tomorrow.

01:01:16.640 I think you'll agree this is the

01:01:17.920 greatest live stream you've ever

01:01:19.240 seen.

01:01:20.100 Speak among yourselves.

01:01:21.360 112.

01:01:21.480 The flame councils.

01:01:28.760 Don't turn me wrong.

01:01:29.700 7- olması.

01:01:31.220 I agree.

01:01:31.460 horse calls.

01:01:31.660 Go save your ransom.

01:01:32.460 I agree.

01:01:33.880 And that's what you can learn.

01:01:34.320 You can see it now.

01:01:34.500 Me agree.

01:01:34.580 I agree.

01:01:35.180 I agree.

01:01:35.520 I agree.

01:01:35.980 You can see it now.

01:01:37.080 I agree.

01:01:37.900 And that has been a copy.

01:01:38.300 I agree.

01:01:39.400 I agree to have no idea.

01:01:39.540 I agree.

01:01:40.200 That's why I do

01:01:40.860 that.

01:01:41.240 I agree with you.

01:01:41.340 It's only one of the

01:01:42.060 thee how many Ro's.

01:01:42.940 States calls.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 07, 2022

Episode 1675 Scott Adams： All of the News About Ukraine is Fake But Let's Talk About it Anyway

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