Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1676 Scott Adams： Today I'm Going to Change Some People's Lives. One Person in Particular Who Doesn't See it Coming

00:00:00.000 Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

00:00:08.320 Today, a special treat.

00:00:11.640 You know, normally this is the highlight of your entire life,

00:00:14.960 coming to Coffee with Scott Adams,

00:00:16.980 but today, I'm going to take it up a notch.

00:00:20.200 Somebody's life will be changed today.

00:00:23.760 Is it you?

00:00:25.400 Well, I don't know. Probably not.

00:00:27.420 But somebody's life is going to be changed,

00:00:30.980 and in the process of doing that,

00:00:34.840 most of you are going to become more powerful today.

00:00:40.260 Do you think I can deliver on that?

00:00:43.160 I'm going to make most of you more powerful,

00:00:46.320 like you're actually going to learn a life skill or more

00:00:50.640 that will make you more effective.

00:00:53.660 But before we do that,

00:00:57.740 would you like to be primed with a simultaneous sip

00:01:00.180 that makes everything better?

00:01:02.060 Of course you would.

00:01:03.340 That's why you're here.

00:01:04.680 Then all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass,

00:01:06.460 a tank or a chalice or a canteen,

00:01:08.140 a jug or a flask,

00:01:09.100 a vessel of any kind.

00:01:11.180 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like,

00:01:13.880 coffee.

00:01:15.580 And join me now

00:01:16.540 for the unparalleled pleasure

00:01:18.940 of the dopamine hit of the day

00:01:20.200 that makes everything better.

00:01:21.980 And yes, that's a whiteboard behind me.

00:01:25.360 Yes, that's how good today is.

00:01:27.820 No cheating.

00:01:28.800 Don't look ahead.

00:01:30.320 And now, go.

00:01:31.280 Oh, yeah.

00:01:36.600 Mm, mm, mm, mm, mm.

00:01:40.180 All right, let's do a little audit of my audience.

00:01:45.780 In the comments,

00:01:47.000 please tell me if you identify as liberal, conservative,

00:01:53.020 or let's say neither or independent,

00:01:56.400 whichever you prefer.

00:01:57.260 So in the comments,

00:01:58.780 I just want to get a sense.

00:02:03.240 Conservatives and independents,

00:02:05.180 libertarians,

00:02:07.240 indies, conservatives.

00:02:10.060 So apparently there is no one who...

00:02:13.260 There are literally no liberal people watching this.

00:02:21.300 Or nobody who wants to label themselves as such.

00:02:25.920 All right?

00:02:28.240 All right.

00:02:29.720 How many of you have voted...

00:02:32.220 have ever voted Democrat?

00:02:35.120 All right, new question.

00:02:36.940 Yes or no?

00:02:37.960 How many of you have ever voted Democrat?

00:02:41.980 A lot of yeses.

00:02:44.440 That's interesting.

00:02:45.660 Because a lot of you said independent,

00:02:47.500 so if I hadn't seen a lot of yeses,

00:02:49.040 I would have been disappointed.

00:02:50.920 Although the number of noes and nevers

00:02:52.600 is kind of impressive.

00:02:53.480 I don't know if that's a good way or a bad way.

00:02:58.120 All right.

00:02:59.440 So that was just a little audit of who I'm talking to here.

00:03:04.040 Now, I tweeted today that it seems to me

00:03:07.260 that if you prefer methods and systems that work,

00:03:12.040 that are known to work,

00:03:14.120 somebody will label you conservative.

00:03:15.780 And I think that's what happened with Trump.

00:03:19.240 I think Trump's philosophy, if you will,

00:03:22.000 is, well, what works?

00:03:24.940 We know what everybody wants, right?

00:03:27.020 We want to be safe and wealthy and happy,

00:03:30.600 educate our kids and have freedom and all that.

00:03:33.120 So everybody's very clear about what people want.

00:03:37.020 But, you know, we're less clear about how to get there.

00:03:40.280 I always thought that Trump was all about whatever works,

00:03:43.360 and then people said,

00:03:44.580 well, you must be a conservative.

00:03:46.600 Because they just assumed that if people are doing

00:03:48.760 practical things that might work,

00:03:51.080 they're probably conservatives.

00:03:52.460 And I think he embraced it and just ran with it.

00:03:55.840 But in my case,

00:03:57.460 I don't label myself as conservative

00:03:59.880 or liberal or anything else.

00:04:01.500 I mean, not really.

00:04:03.000 I always say I'm left of Bernie,

00:04:04.720 but that's just to confuse you.

00:04:09.560 I always find it's a compliment

00:04:11.440 when somebody calls me conservative.

00:04:14.520 Although I don't label myself that way.

00:04:17.380 It seems like if somebody calls you conservative,

00:04:19.540 they're saying,

00:04:20.660 you're one of those people

00:04:23.000 who keeps trying to do the things that work traditionally,

00:04:26.060 such as building systems

00:04:28.060 that take into account the competition

00:04:31.020 and human motivation matter.

00:04:35.980 Okay.

00:04:37.580 I'll take that hit.

00:04:41.300 Let's put the Dilbert filter on the news

00:04:43.660 and see if it makes anything look different.

00:04:45.740 Now, the Dilbert filter would be

00:04:48.060 if you've worked in a large organization of any kind,

00:04:52.160 there's some things that you see over and over again

00:04:54.300 that you wouldn't necessarily think are true

00:04:57.200 unless you actually experienced it.

00:05:00.140 There's some things you think,

00:05:01.460 well, is that just something people make comics about?

00:05:06.200 Or do those things really actually happen

00:05:08.660 in big organizations?

00:05:10.480 And I'm here to tell you,

00:05:12.300 yes, those things really happen in big organizations.

00:05:14.580 And you can't believe any of it

00:05:15.800 unless you experience it.

00:05:17.260 That's why the Dilbert comic

00:05:18.560 was a phenomenon in the 90s more than now.

00:05:21.500 because I kind of outed the fact

00:05:25.600 that people were having incredibly weird experiences,

00:05:29.580 but nobody seemed to be talking about it publicly

00:05:32.380 because I think people were under the impression

00:05:34.940 it was just them.

00:05:36.260 Well, this must be just my job.

00:05:38.560 This can't possibly be happening all over the place.

00:05:41.940 And then what I outed was the fact that,

00:05:44.320 yeah, it's happening all over the place.

00:05:46.080 As soon as you put a bunch of people together

00:05:47.800 in any kind of an organization,

00:05:50.480 there are certain things that always emerge.

00:05:53.100 And it's just really reliable.

00:05:54.880 If that were not the case,

00:05:56.080 the Dilbert comic would not have taken off.

00:05:58.520 It was people saying,

00:05:59.460 oh, yeah, that's me.

00:06:00.580 Nobody talks about that, but that's happening.

00:06:02.920 So let's put that same filter on the news.

00:06:07.600 One big part of the news today

00:06:09.140 says that the Russians are promising

00:06:11.800 humanitarian corridors

00:06:13.740 so that the noncombatants could escape safely

00:06:18.780 out of the combat areas.

00:06:21.720 But the news is that they're being attacked

00:06:24.480 and or the roads are mined.

00:06:26.780 And so that the Russians are being cynical 0.98

00:06:28.820 and they just say you can let your civilians out.

00:06:33.660 But really what they want to do

00:06:34.860 is kill the women and children too 0.98

00:06:36.900 because killing the women and children 0.68

00:06:39.100 will get them like an extra quick victory.

00:06:43.740 So that's what the news says.

00:06:46.820 Here's the Dilbert filter on the news.

00:06:50.640 What are the odds that the people

00:06:52.220 who are attacking the roads

00:06:53.800 and or mining them

00:06:55.140 are in perfect communication

00:06:57.240 with the people who say,

00:06:59.120 yeah, you can have your safety corridor?

00:07:02.240 Do you think there's only like,

00:07:05.100 you know, one combatant unit

00:07:07.600 or do you think that they all

00:07:10.260 have good communication?

00:07:11.420 Do you really think that the people

00:07:13.680 who said, yes,

00:07:14.560 you can have this corridor to escape,

00:07:17.160 do you think they knew anything

00:07:18.240 about the corridor

00:07:19.060 that they had just authorized?

00:07:20.720 Do you think they even knew

00:07:21.880 if their own forces

00:07:22.900 were going to attack it?

00:07:24.500 Do you think they knew

00:07:25.460 if it had been mined?

00:07:27.360 Maybe.

00:07:28.500 Maybe.

00:07:29.000 You can't rule out

00:07:30.240 that the news is right.

00:07:32.700 It's possible.

00:07:35.280 But hold this thought

00:07:36.760 because I'm going to come back to it, right?

00:07:38.360 Now, in my opinion,

00:07:40.580 I would say that this kind of news

00:07:42.740 is notable, wouldn't you?

00:07:45.920 It's notable when somebody says,

00:07:48.220 I'll let you out

00:07:48.940 and then kills you instead. 0.84

00:07:50.780 That's very notable.

00:07:52.380 Remember the word notable

00:07:53.620 because I'm going to tell you later

00:07:56.540 that the fact that that sounds notable

00:07:59.020 means it's probably not true.

00:08:03.120 We'll get to that.

00:08:04.720 How about another one?

00:08:05.460 Here's the Dilbert filter

00:08:07.560 on what caused the war.

00:08:11.920 Now, there are a million ways

00:08:13.240 to slice this and say

00:08:14.300 what caused the war.

00:08:16.380 Is it because Putin is a megalomaniac?

00:08:20.300 Maybe he's declining

00:08:21.360 and wants to leave a legacy.

00:08:24.320 Maybe just Russians always conquer 1.00

00:08:26.300 anything they can conquer

00:08:27.440 if they think it's easy.

00:08:29.080 So there are a hundred ways

00:08:30.080 to say what caused the war.

00:08:31.560 Maybe NATO expansion,

00:08:33.680 you know, poked the bear too many times

00:08:36.500 and had to respond, right?

00:08:38.600 How many ways could you come up with

00:08:40.500 to describe what caused the war?

00:08:44.180 A lot, right?

00:08:45.640 You know that Russians will have 1.00

00:08:47.080 their interpretation,

00:08:49.320 Europe probably will have their own, etc.

00:08:52.140 But let me put the Dilbert filter on it.

00:08:55.400 And this is based on the fact

00:08:56.740 that there's this one head of the military

00:08:59.000 in Russia who is known to be,

00:09:02.660 let's say, a favored star of Putin.

00:09:08.120 Also, I believe he had no military experience

00:09:10.900 before being head of the military.

00:09:13.200 I'll need a confirmation of that,

00:09:14.580 but I don't think he'd been in the military.

00:09:16.820 And apparently he's reportedly a big suck-up.

00:09:21.480 So he's somebody who's going to tell Putin

00:09:23.360 what Putin wants to hear.

00:09:24.540 Apparently, one of the things he told Putin

00:09:28.020 was that he had upgraded the military.

00:09:32.000 And that military,

00:09:33.340 that Russian military,

00:09:35.220 wow.

00:09:37.060 First rate.

00:09:39.140 So here's what I imagine is the conversation

00:09:41.820 that could have happened

00:09:42.860 in any large organization

00:09:45.540 where there are bosses and underlings.

00:09:47.580 And it's starting to look like

00:09:50.520 this might be the entire reason

00:09:52.540 that Ukraine and Russia are at war.

00:09:56.340 And I'm quite serious about this.

00:09:58.900 This is based on the Dilbert filter

00:10:00.800 because a Dilbert way of operating

00:10:03.400 is just universal.

00:10:05.200 That's why Dilbert is well-known.

00:10:08.380 Here's how I think it went.

00:10:10.620 I'm going to say the boss,

00:10:12.580 you could substitute Putin in this,

00:10:14.420 and when I say underling,

00:10:15.980 you could substitute Sergei Shoigu,

00:10:21.280 who's the head of their defense.

00:10:24.360 And the boss says to his subordinate,

00:10:27.440 he says,

00:10:27.980 hypothetically,

00:10:29.720 could the Russian military,

00:10:31.440 you told me you modernized,

00:10:33.300 conquer Ukraine? 0.87

00:10:35.140 And then the underling says,

00:10:37.220 two days, tops.

00:10:40.000 And that's exactly why

00:10:41.460 some say you should give me a medal

00:10:43.260 and maybe a raise.

00:10:45.300 Not only have I modernized

00:10:46.960 the military

00:10:48.760 in ways which are hard for you to confirm,

00:10:52.280 but that military

00:10:53.920 is the finest military

00:10:55.320 in all the world.

00:10:56.480 When I took over the job,

00:10:58.580 not so good.

00:10:59.760 Not so good, honestly.

00:11:01.400 The guy you executed just before me,

00:11:03.820 I think he did a terrible job.

00:11:05.620 But not me.

00:11:06.940 With the limited budget

00:11:08.260 that you've given me

00:11:09.160 and the limited time to implement it,

00:11:11.500 I have completely turned around

00:11:13.640 and modernized the Russian military.

00:11:15.840 So much so that nobody would dare

00:11:19.260 get into an actual war with us.

00:11:22.280 You know, I wish,

00:11:23.800 I wish they would.

00:11:25.200 I kind of wish they would.

00:11:26.960 Because if anybody got in a war with us,

00:11:30.040 my modernized new military

00:11:31.840 that I did for you,

00:11:33.260 Mr. Putin,

00:11:34.380 we would wipe them out.

00:11:35.760 So thank goodness,

00:11:37.540 thank goodness

00:11:38.180 we'll never be in an actual shooting war.

00:11:40.200 But you know what?

00:11:42.060 I think it would be good for the country

00:11:44.640 to show that

00:11:45.420 the person you put in charge

00:11:47.500 of modernizing the military

00:11:48.840 did a great job.

00:11:51.380 It would be great for morale

00:11:52.380 in the country.

00:11:53.800 I think it would send the message

00:11:55.080 to the rest of the world as well.

00:11:56.320 So, I don't know,

00:11:58.480 another medal, I'm thinking.

00:12:00.800 Something in public.

00:12:02.640 Possibly a small raise to...

00:12:05.460 Or bonus.

00:12:06.540 Whatever you like.

00:12:07.860 Could be crypto, I don't care.

00:12:09.600 You know, real estate.

00:12:11.540 A dacha in the country. 0.97

00:12:12.680 Anything.

00:12:13.500 Anything.

00:12:13.920 I'm not even suggesting it.

00:12:16.460 I'm just saying this.

00:12:17.220 Some are saying,

00:12:18.520 some people are saying

00:12:19.500 that the way I've modernized

00:12:20.820 that military,

00:12:22.460 wow,

00:12:22.800 it would be almost

00:12:24.820 a crime

00:12:27.120 to not recognize

00:12:28.660 that sort of thing

00:12:29.700 given the benefit

00:12:30.600 to the rest of the country.

00:12:32.260 Not even...

00:12:32.680 I'm not even thinking of me.

00:12:34.320 It's we.

00:12:35.840 It's we.

00:12:36.780 Not me.

00:12:39.000 And then Putin says,

00:12:40.640 really?

00:12:41.780 You've modernized

00:12:42.780 the military that much?

00:12:45.260 And his general says,

00:12:46.700 yeah, I did.

00:12:48.000 And he says,

00:12:49.600 well, if you can conquer Ukraine

00:12:51.140 in two days,

00:12:51.980 go do that. 0.52

00:12:55.280 And then his general says,

00:12:57.380 what?

00:13:00.640 Yeah, you heard me.

00:13:02.020 Go conquer Ukraine 0.98

00:13:03.280 in two days.

00:13:04.020 You just told me

00:13:04.680 you could do that.

00:13:06.120 Yeah, yeah.

00:13:08.340 Well, yes.

00:13:09.660 Well, that's true.

00:13:10.840 In some ways,

00:13:11.640 you could say

00:13:12.120 that I did say that.

00:13:13.860 But,

00:13:14.760 in other ways,

00:13:16.260 you could say

00:13:17.000 that diplomacy

00:13:17.660 is another tool of war.

00:13:19.980 And, no,

00:13:20.720 you just told me

00:13:21.340 you could conquer Ukraine

00:13:22.420 in two days.

00:13:23.860 Conquer Ukraine 0.99

00:13:24.680 in two days

00:13:25.560 or I'm going to

00:13:26.500 cut off your testicles 0.94

00:13:27.700 and feed them to you

00:13:29.220 in front of your wife.

00:13:32.100 What?

00:13:33.240 Yeah,

00:13:33.760 you just told me

00:13:34.660 you could conquer Ukraine

00:13:35.760 in two days.

00:13:36.720 Go fucking do it.

00:13:38.120 And then a war started.

00:13:43.140 That's what I think happened.

00:13:45.420 And every day,

00:13:47.060 this general is probably

00:13:48.120 going back to Putin,

00:13:50.420 holding his balls 0.62

00:13:51.580 with one hand

00:13:53.260 and waving his other hand

00:13:55.320 trying to explain

00:13:56.180 why things aren't going well.

00:13:57.460 Well, you know,

00:13:59.500 if it hadn't been

00:14:00.880 for your head

00:14:02.120 of propaganda

00:14:02.840 getting ahead of things,

00:14:04.340 we would have

00:14:05.040 surprised them.

00:14:06.780 But you had to use your,

00:14:08.140 you know,

00:14:08.580 as President Xi,

00:14:10.000 if President Xi

00:14:11.140 had not asked you

00:14:12.880 to delay

00:14:13.400 for the Olympics,

00:14:14.260 I swear,

00:14:15.380 we would be

00:14:16.060 all over Kiev

00:14:17.280 by now.

00:14:18.260 All over it.

00:14:19.740 But then,

00:14:20.340 that delay,

00:14:21.880 gosh,

00:14:22.300 that, you know,

00:14:23.000 nobody could have

00:14:23.720 figured that

00:14:24.200 into the planning

00:14:24.940 when I built

00:14:26.040 this modernized military.

00:14:28.420 It was really

00:14:28.980 more of a blitzkrieg model.

00:14:30.900 Blitzkrieg.

00:14:32.040 I expected it to be

00:14:32.960 in and out

00:14:33.460 two days.

00:14:34.800 But when you made me

00:14:35.660 wait a week,

00:14:36.440 you know,

00:14:36.940 everybody got prepared.

00:14:38.960 Everybody was prepared.

00:14:41.580 Well,

00:14:42.080 was that on me?

00:14:43.200 I told you

00:14:43.960 I was ready to go.

00:14:44.880 We were ready to go.

00:14:46.240 One week,

00:14:46.820 we were ready to go.

00:14:47.540 You made us wait

00:14:48.180 six weeks.

00:14:50.100 Six weeks.

00:14:50.940 Everybody had time

00:14:51.680 to get new weapons.

00:14:53.720 You basically,

00:14:54.380 not you,

00:14:54.940 I'm not blaming you,

00:14:56.280 boss.

00:14:56.940 No,

00:14:57.780 Xi.

00:14:58.720 President Xi.

00:15:00.180 You know,

00:15:00.700 we are the victims here.

00:15:01.920 You and I,

00:15:03.040 we are the victims.

00:15:04.480 Our military would be

00:15:06.120 so done by now

00:15:07.360 if not for President Xi.

00:15:09.060 But sometimes

00:15:10.160 you got to do

00:15:10.580 what you got to do.

00:15:12.280 So that's what I think

00:15:13.480 caused World War III.

00:15:17.240 Speaking of horrible things,

00:15:19.580 Blaze Media is reporting.

00:15:21.720 They did a FOIA request,

00:15:23.260 I guess.

00:15:23.560 And they revealed

00:15:25.120 that HHS,

00:15:27.520 Health and Human Services,

00:15:28.700 so our government,

00:15:30.520 purchased all kinds

00:15:31.580 of advertising

00:15:32.240 from the major networks

00:15:33.520 about the vaccinations.

00:15:36.680 So ABC,

00:15:37.480 CBS,

00:15:37.920 and NBC,

00:15:38.660 as well as cable TV,

00:15:40.280 Fox News,

00:15:40.940 CNN,

00:15:41.500 MSNBC,

00:15:42.400 Legacy Media,

00:15:43.680 New York Post,

00:15:44.440 LA Times,

00:15:45.000 Washington Post,

00:15:45.900 blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,

00:15:46.480 BuzzFeed,

00:15:47.180 Max,

00:15:47.600 NewsFax.

00:15:48.300 So the government

00:15:50.220 bought advertising

00:15:51.260 on news shows

00:15:53.660 to,

00:15:55.120 or news networks,

00:15:56.440 to tell you,

00:15:58.800 the public,

00:15:59.340 that you should get vaccinated.

00:16:03.260 They use your own money

00:16:04.740 to tell you what to do.

00:16:08.340 Well, I guess that's

00:16:08.980 what governments do.

00:16:10.080 They use your own money

00:16:11.020 to tell you what to do.

00:16:12.260 So that part's

00:16:13.040 not surprising.

00:16:13.640 But when you were

00:16:15.800 watching these news networks,

00:16:17.660 did you think

00:16:18.160 you were getting

00:16:18.620 something like,

00:16:19.860 oh, I don't know,

00:16:21.660 the news?

00:16:23.220 Because I don't think

00:16:24.660 you can really say

00:16:25.800 you got the news.

00:16:28.420 I think that

00:16:29.740 if somebody is paying you

00:16:31.760 to say positive things,

00:16:33.580 you're probably not

00:16:34.940 going to say positive things

00:16:36.420 on the commercial

00:16:37.880 that they paid for.

00:16:40.020 I mean,

00:16:40.320 that part would be

00:16:41.040 recorded, of course.

00:16:41.900 And then give

00:16:43.620 a news segment

00:16:44.300 saying, you know,

00:16:45.200 these guys are

00:16:45.760 a bunch of liars

00:16:46.460 and crooks.

00:16:47.760 Because how much

00:16:48.660 more additional

00:16:49.900 advertising dollars

00:16:51.480 are you going to get

00:16:52.340 if you say

00:16:54.000 that your advertiser

00:16:54.900 is a crook?

00:16:57.180 None.

00:16:58.340 So can you trust

00:16:59.300 anything that

00:16:59.980 the major news networks

00:17:01.020 told you about

00:17:01.820 vaccinations?

00:17:05.420 Now, I think

00:17:06.280 Fox News did,

00:17:08.320 at least the opinion people,

00:17:10.540 were at least

00:17:11.180 skeptical about

00:17:12.280 the vaccinations.

00:17:13.680 They expressed

00:17:14.460 a level of skepticism.

00:17:18.040 Not everybody,

00:17:18.840 but some of the hosts.

00:17:22.320 So, you know,

00:17:23.220 you can see that

00:17:24.260 some of the opinion people

00:17:25.260 were not affected

00:17:25.980 by the advertising.

00:17:27.900 Where were they?

00:17:29.080 Would they have

00:17:29.680 gone harder?

00:17:30.260 Did they stop short

00:17:32.820 of where their

00:17:33.520 actual opinions were?

00:17:34.680 We don't know.

00:17:36.060 We will never know.

00:17:37.860 They may have

00:17:38.300 stopped short

00:17:38.900 of where their

00:17:39.920 actual opinions were.

00:17:42.180 Well,

00:17:43.020 but none of that

00:17:44.760 surprises you,

00:17:45.480 does it?

00:17:46.360 The Biden administration

00:17:47.440 announced they're going

00:17:48.180 to do some kind

00:17:48.780 of executive order

00:17:49.720 looking into

00:17:50.560 how to regulate

00:17:52.520 cryptocurrency.

00:17:53.380 Well, that's all good news,

00:17:56.520 isn't it?

00:17:59.640 That's all great news.

00:18:03.640 Because if there were

00:18:05.280 ever two things

00:18:06.120 that you wanted

00:18:06.680 to put together

00:18:07.560 to make synergy,

00:18:09.780 you know,

00:18:11.260 people like crypto

00:18:12.900 and they like governments.

00:18:15.540 So if you like cryptocurrencies

00:18:16.780 and you like governments,

00:18:18.400 you know what would be great?

00:18:19.420 You put those two things

00:18:21.320 together.

00:18:22.740 Sure.

00:18:23.600 Some people say

00:18:24.440 cryptocurrency is

00:18:25.760 the antidote

00:18:27.280 to government.

00:18:29.640 But it won't be soon.

00:18:31.140 As soon as they get

00:18:32.920 their regulations on it.

00:18:35.140 Now,

00:18:36.240 honestly,

00:18:37.300 I'm not smart enough

00:18:38.480 to predict

00:18:39.220 where this even goes.

00:18:41.840 The most,

00:18:42.280 the most,

00:18:43.680 let's see,

00:18:44.620 scary future

00:18:45.500 is that

00:18:46.620 the government

00:18:47.220 gets control

00:18:47.980 of everything.

00:18:49.080 Privacy,

00:18:49.760 crypto,

00:18:50.880 just everything.

00:18:51.960 You know,

00:18:52.160 your bank.

00:18:53.420 And then

00:18:54.040 they have full control

00:18:55.500 and they can just

00:18:56.200 push a button

00:18:56.960 and turn your life

00:18:57.820 on or off

00:18:58.460 if you don't cooperate.

00:19:00.780 That feels like

00:19:02.140 reasonably

00:19:03.520 possible

00:19:06.320 or probable

00:19:07.180 enough

00:19:07.560 that you should

00:19:07.980 worry about it.

00:19:09.700 But it's not

00:19:10.460 the only way

00:19:11.020 things could go.

00:19:12.420 I've often

00:19:13.300 predicted

00:19:14.400 that

00:19:16.460 the worst

00:19:17.500 place

00:19:17.860 for society

00:19:18.520 to be

00:19:19.100 is

00:19:20.460 semi

00:19:21.460 lack

00:19:22.980 of privacy.

00:19:25.200 The two

00:19:25.900 worst,

00:19:26.800 the worst

00:19:27.520 place it could

00:19:28.120 be

00:19:28.400 would be

00:19:29.300 everybody

00:19:29.760 has complete

00:19:30.440 privacy

00:19:30.920 because then

00:19:32.180 you could be

00:19:32.600 a criminal.

00:19:34.400 Complete privacy

00:19:35.160 means you can

00:19:35.740 just do anything

00:19:36.500 and you can

00:19:36.820 get away with it.

00:19:38.020 So complete

00:19:38.580 privacy is

00:19:39.240 what you don't

00:19:39.600 want.

00:19:40.320 You want

00:19:40.600 some kind

00:19:41.020 of moderated

00:19:42.340 middle ground

00:19:43.960 privacy

00:19:45.060 you think.

00:19:46.580 But what

00:19:46.960 happens when

00:19:47.660 the citizens

00:19:48.580 lose their

00:19:49.260 privacy

00:19:49.700 but the

00:19:50.900 people in

00:19:51.300 the government

00:19:51.740 have not?

00:19:53.660 Well that's

00:19:54.020 the worst

00:19:54.380 case.

00:19:55.520 So we're

00:19:56.140 very close

00:19:56.600 to the worst

00:19:57.080 case scenario

00:19:57.700 where the

00:19:58.720 citizens have

00:19:59.480 no privacy

00:20:00.140 about anything

00:20:00.940 but the

00:20:01.900 people in

00:20:02.320 charge still

00:20:03.060 keep their

00:20:03.720 privacy.

00:20:04.860 So if they

00:20:05.360 punish you

00:20:05.960 for no

00:20:06.360 reason

00:20:06.760 it's hard

00:20:08.220 to prove

00:20:08.660 because they've

00:20:09.500 got their

00:20:09.800 privacy.

00:20:10.800 You don't.

00:20:11.300 So if

00:20:13.940 you got to

00:20:14.300 the point

00:20:14.580 where the

00:20:15.120 people in

00:20:15.880 charge had

00:20:16.760 no privacy

00:20:17.480 this by the

00:20:18.960 way is

00:20:19.240 something that

00:20:19.800 Naval

00:20:20.100 noodled about

00:20:21.880 years ago.

00:20:22.780 He called

00:20:23.080 it the

00:20:23.480 GoPro

00:20:24.500 presidency

00:20:25.220 where the

00:20:26.560 president would

00:20:27.060 have to wear

00:20:27.440 a GoPro

00:20:27.860 camera all

00:20:28.620 the time

00:20:29.060 maybe except

00:20:30.240 using the

00:20:30.720 bathroom or

00:20:31.220 something.

00:20:32.140 So you

00:20:32.380 just see

00:20:32.980 everything.

00:20:34.180 Now that's

00:20:34.760 a visual

00:20:36.480 way to

00:20:37.640 express a

00:20:38.320 bigger idea

00:20:39.140 which is

00:20:39.680 greater

00:20:40.460 transparency

00:20:41.100 of the

00:20:41.500 leaders.

00:20:42.780 It takes

00:20:43.180 away

00:20:43.380 blackmail.

00:20:45.220 It takes

00:20:45.460 away a

00:20:46.640 lot of

00:20:48.000 things.

00:20:49.780 Anyway,

00:20:50.900 I do not

00:20:51.820 predict either

00:20:53.140 doom or

00:20:54.040 glory.

00:20:57.460 Uh-oh.

00:20:59.500 Kind of a

00:21:00.400 problem.

00:21:01.580 Oh,

00:21:02.220 God.

00:21:03.840 Okay.

00:21:05.140 All right.

00:21:05.700 I'll deal

00:21:06.160 with that

00:21:06.400 later.

00:21:06.660 Rasmussen

00:21:09.840 did a

00:21:10.180 poll on

00:21:10.600 election

00:21:11.020 integrity

00:21:11.660 issues.

00:21:13.440 And it

00:21:13.960 looks like

00:21:14.360 election

00:21:15.000 integrity is

00:21:15.640 going to be

00:21:15.900 a pretty

00:21:16.160 big issue

00:21:16.780 in the

00:21:17.100 upcoming

00:21:17.380 elections

00:21:17.860 in the

00:21:18.160 U.S.

00:21:20.200 So more

00:21:21.020 than half

00:21:21.500 of voters

00:21:22.720 believe

00:21:24.040 cheating

00:21:24.460 affected the

00:21:25.260 2020

00:21:25.660 election.

00:21:27.500 So 52%

00:21:28.760 of them,

00:21:29.180 I think,

00:21:29.460 said that

00:21:30.500 it's very

00:21:31.200 or somewhat

00:21:32.080 likely that

00:21:32.700 cheating

00:21:32.980 affected the

00:21:33.680 2020

00:21:34.060 election.

00:21:35.900 And

00:21:36.100 surprisingly,

00:21:36.660 19%

00:21:38.360 of Democrats

00:21:40.520 agreed with

00:21:42.740 the notion

00:21:43.260 that

00:21:43.900 cheating

00:21:45.260 affected the

00:21:45.980 election.

00:21:47.840 Now,

00:21:48.440 are you

00:21:48.640 surprised?

00:21:49.860 How do you

00:21:50.460 explain that

00:21:50.960 19% of

00:21:51.940 Democrats

00:21:52.580 think cheating

00:21:53.700 affected the

00:21:54.420 election?

00:21:56.560 Now,

00:21:56.820 remember,

00:21:57.180 I'm talking

00:21:57.500 about

00:21:57.800 affected the

00:21:58.580 election,

00:22:00.940 but in

00:22:03.680 which way?

00:22:04.340 Yes,

00:22:04.680 somebody got

00:22:05.220 the right

00:22:05.480 answer.

00:22:06.480 Everybody

00:22:07.000 thinks that

00:22:07.640 the other

00:22:07.960 team cheated.

00:22:09.540 So I'm

00:22:09.920 surprised that

00:22:10.600 the Democrat

00:22:11.080 number isn't

00:22:11.800 actually higher,

00:22:13.300 and my

00:22:14.100 guess is that

00:22:14.820 it would be

00:22:15.520 higher,

00:22:16.480 except that

00:22:17.160 the Democrats

00:22:17.800 know they

00:22:18.260 don't want to

00:22:18.720 say the

00:22:19.000 election was

00:22:19.560 stolen.

00:22:21.080 19% of

00:22:22.120 Democrats are

00:22:22.780 just answering

00:22:23.420 the question

00:22:23.960 straight.

00:22:25.320 Well,

00:22:25.500 do you think

00:22:25.820 there was

00:22:26.080 cheating that

00:22:26.600 affected it?

00:22:27.340 19% said,

00:22:28.360 yeah,

00:22:28.600 probably.

00:22:28.920 I mean,

00:22:29.700 probably both

00:22:30.320 ways.

00:22:31.700 Probably both

00:22:32.340 ways,

00:22:32.700 right?

00:22:33.900 The most

00:22:34.640 reasonable

00:22:36.320 assumption

00:22:36.920 about this

00:22:38.360 big,

00:22:38.940 complicated

00:22:39.380 system where

00:22:40.180 different states

00:22:40.900 are running

00:22:41.300 it would be,

00:22:42.560 yeah,

00:22:42.980 probably,

00:22:44.160 and probably

00:22:45.060 in both

00:22:45.500 directions.

00:22:46.080 We just

00:22:46.360 don't really

00:22:46.800 know the

00:22:47.120 extent of

00:22:47.580 it or

00:22:47.780 what.

00:22:48.420 Just no

00:22:48.820 way to

00:22:49.060 know.

00:22:49.240 Now,

00:22:51.080 what if

00:22:52.100 Trump had

00:22:55.020 won in

00:22:55.840 2020?

00:22:56.940 would the

00:22:59.480 same number

00:23:00.180 of people

00:23:00.580 on each

00:23:01.000 side say

00:23:02.380 they thought

00:23:02.780 the election

00:23:03.260 had been

00:23:03.760 stolen?

00:23:05.360 The

00:23:05.600 percentages

00:23:06.100 might be

00:23:06.560 the same,

00:23:07.060 but it

00:23:07.260 would flip

00:23:07.980 parties.

00:23:09.560 So,

00:23:09.860 basically,

00:23:10.440 I think

00:23:10.700 all we're

00:23:11.000 finding out

00:23:11.640 is that if

00:23:12.620 the other

00:23:13.000 side wins,

00:23:13.700 you're pretty

00:23:14.020 sure that

00:23:14.440 their cheating

00:23:14.920 was involved.

00:23:16.900 Does anybody

00:23:17.320 disagree with

00:23:18.080 that?

00:23:19.740 That independent

00:23:20.680 of whether or

00:23:21.520 not any

00:23:22.040 cheating ever

00:23:22.620 happens,

00:23:23.920 if the other

00:23:24.600 team unexpectedly

00:23:25.620 wins,

00:23:26.940 you're pretty

00:23:27.640 sure there

00:23:28.140 was some

00:23:28.460 cheating going

00:23:29.020 on there.

00:23:29.860 Pretty sure.

00:23:30.680 It doesn't

00:23:30.920 matter which

00:23:31.300 way it

00:23:31.540 goes.

00:23:34.200 All right.

00:23:37.240 Here's an

00:23:38.000 interesting

00:23:39.000 answer.

00:23:43.220 Well,

00:23:43.780 no,

00:23:43.980 that wasn't

00:23:44.300 interesting.

00:23:45.200 Never mind.

00:23:47.660 But let's

00:23:48.320 talk about

00:23:48.700 something that

00:23:49.220 is.

00:23:52.560 Is 0.88

00:23:53.040 photo ID

00:23:53.720 a reasonable

00:23:54.320 measure?

00:23:55.000 That was

00:23:55.380 another question,

00:23:56.340 Rasmussen.

00:23:57.740 74% of the

00:23:59.180 public thinks

00:23:59.900 that having a

00:24:00.540 photo ID is

00:24:01.440 a reasonable

00:24:02.100 request to

00:24:04.680 vote.

00:24:05.860 That would

00:24:06.260 leave, let's 1.00

00:24:07.120 see, how

00:24:07.380 many, or

00:24:08.660 it would be

00:24:09.100 against that.

00:24:09.720 Let's see.

00:24:10.360 You take

00:24:10.980 100 and

00:24:12.580 you subtract

00:24:13.100 the 74.

00:24:15.080 So somewhere

00:24:15.760 around a

00:24:16.260 quarter, oh,

00:24:17.800 a quarter,

00:24:18.900 25%.

00:24:20.180 yes.

00:24:21.680 So 25%-ish

00:24:24.040 of people

00:24:26.060 think that

00:24:28.020 people should

00:24:28.800 vote whether

00:24:29.800 they're citizens

00:24:30.500 or have ID or

00:24:31.640 nothing, I

00:24:32.420 guess.

00:24:33.880 All right.

00:24:34.940 Now, let me

00:24:36.420 ask you this.

00:24:38.260 Don't you think

00:24:39.080 we should have

00:24:39.520 some kind of

00:24:40.040 rule of thumb,

00:24:41.060 like it should

00:24:41.500 have a name so

00:24:42.360 everybody can

00:24:42.900 refer to it,

00:24:43.980 when there's

00:24:44.540 something that

00:24:45.040 over, let's 0.63

00:24:45.700 say 70% of

00:24:46.780 the public

00:24:47.200 supports, and

00:24:49.280 they can't

00:24:49.700 make it into

00:24:50.220 law.

00:24:51.980 What do you

00:24:53.360 think of

00:24:53.800 something,

00:24:54.800 anything, it

00:24:55.400 doesn't matter

00:24:55.740 what the topic

00:24:56.300 is, it doesn't

00:24:56.980 have to be

00:24:57.420 about elections,

00:24:58.720 but any

00:24:59.560 topic in the

00:25:01.120 United States

00:25:01.860 where over 70%

00:25:03.640 of the people

00:25:04.180 support it, and

00:25:05.960 it isn't being

00:25:06.560 made into a

00:25:07.220 law.

00:25:09.580 How do you

00:25:10.620 explain that?

00:25:12.500 Doesn't it

00:25:13.140 have to be

00:25:13.660 corruption?

00:25:14.000 Now, the

00:25:16.080 exception would

00:25:16.840 be, the

00:25:18.000 exception would

00:25:18.700 be if your,

00:25:20.360 let's say,

00:25:21.960 credible leader

00:25:23.120 said, look, I

00:25:24.460 realize that most

00:25:25.300 of you want

00:25:25.820 this, but I'm

00:25:27.120 going to give

00:25:27.520 you a good

00:25:27.960 reason why you

00:25:29.800 don't want

00:25:30.240 this.

00:25:31.840 I'm not really

00:25:32.560 seeing that.

00:25:34.340 I'm just seeing

00:25:35.100 the usual, you

00:25:35.900 know, lies

00:25:36.460 coming from

00:25:37.680 both sides,

00:25:38.760 usually.

00:25:39.900 So it's either

00:25:40.720 cognitive dissonance

00:25:41.820 or corruption,

00:25:42.920 and I don't know

00:25:43.460 how you tell

00:25:43.880 the difference.

00:25:45.980 It's a tough

00:25:46.700 one, because

00:25:48.040 we don't know

00:25:48.700 how much

00:25:50.100 corruption is

00:25:50.720 involved, so

00:25:52.220 that's just

00:25:52.720 always a

00:25:53.060 question mark.

00:25:53.740 It looks like

00:25:54.460 cognitive dissonance,

00:25:55.860 but it could be

00:25:56.460 just corruption,

00:25:57.320 or it could be

00:25:57.920 both.

00:25:58.860 It could be

00:25:59.200 both.

00:25:59.560 Actually, the

00:26:00.000 most likely is

00:26:00.640 both.

00:26:02.560 All right, are

00:26:03.440 you watching the

00:26:04.040 little tweet war

00:26:04.860 between

00:26:05.320 Representative

00:26:06.200 Eric Swalwell

00:26:07.140 and Richard

00:26:08.300 Grinnell,

00:26:09.760 ambassador?

00:26:12.220 Ex-ambassador,

00:26:13.120 I guess, to

00:26:14.120 Germany.

00:26:15.340 So I guess

00:26:15.960 there's a

00:26:16.360 photo.

00:26:18.640 Let's do this

00:26:19.720 in the order

00:26:20.120 it happened.

00:26:21.040 So Swalwell 0.72

00:26:21.760 tweets this.

00:26:23.020 He says,

00:26:23.500 I'm old enough

00:26:24.080 to remember

00:26:24.620 when Richard

00:26:25.700 Grinnell

00:26:26.220 palled around

00:26:27.320 with Nazis 0.79

00:26:28.420 while serving

00:26:30.220 as our

00:26:30.680 ambassador in

00:26:31.420 Germany.

00:26:31.740 Now, what

00:26:33.740 did I tell

00:26:34.220 you about

00:26:34.820 notable

00:26:36.040 news?

00:26:38.460 Things that

00:26:39.040 really make

00:26:39.500 you go,

00:26:40.100 what?

00:26:41.580 What?

00:26:42.660 Are you

00:26:43.220 telling me

00:26:43.860 that the

00:26:44.800 American

00:26:45.320 ambassador

00:26:45.960 to Germany

00:26:47.340 was palling

00:26:49.280 around with

00:26:49.960 a Nazi 0.56

00:26:50.580 while he

00:26:52.020 was an

00:26:52.420 ambassador

00:26:52.840 to Germany?

00:26:54.440 Wow!

00:26:55.160 Wow!

00:26:57.360 Do you

00:26:58.080 think it's

00:26:58.500 true?

00:26:59.020 Of course

00:27:02.120 not.

00:27:03.100 Of course

00:27:03.560 not.

00:27:04.200 Do I even

00:27:04.700 have to tell

00:27:05.160 you why

00:27:05.540 it's not

00:27:05.900 true?

00:27:06.760 No.

00:27:07.720 You should

00:27:08.200 know it's

00:27:08.620 not true

00:27:09.240 just by

00:27:10.360 listening to

00:27:11.000 it.

00:27:12.320 Just listen

00:27:12.860 to it.

00:27:14.500 Just say

00:27:15.000 it in your

00:27:15.380 head and

00:27:15.980 hear how it

00:27:16.540 sounds.

00:27:16.880 Of course

00:27:17.300 it's not

00:27:17.760 true.

00:27:18.000 And as

00:27:18.800 Richard

00:27:19.080 Grinnell

00:27:19.600 points out

00:27:20.300 in his

00:27:21.560 response on

00:27:22.400 Twitter,

00:27:22.740 he said

00:27:23.060 to Swalwell,

00:27:24.820 did Fang

00:27:25.380 Fang tell 0.98

00:27:25.920 you that?

00:27:26.580 Because she

00:27:27.320 got you

00:27:27.760 again.

00:27:28.120 It's illegal

00:27:28.940 to be a

00:27:29.480 Nazi in

00:27:30.020 Germany.

00:27:31.780 You can't

00:27:32.460 even be

00:27:32.820 one.

00:27:34.220 The person

00:27:34.980 he was

00:27:35.220 pictured with,

00:27:35.900 so he's

00:27:36.180 in a photo

00:27:36.940 posing with

00:27:37.660 somebody,

00:27:38.340 is a

00:27:38.740 member of

00:27:39.140 the Bundestag

00:27:40.100 representing

00:27:41.100 the AFD

00:27:42.160 and he

00:27:43.000 came to

00:27:43.360 the 4th

00:27:43.780 of July

00:27:44.120 party like

00:27:44.760 every member

00:27:45.460 of the

00:27:45.740 Bundestag.

00:27:47.160 But I

00:27:47.660 guess this

00:27:48.060 guy had

00:27:48.480 done

00:27:48.660 something

00:27:49.020 provocative

00:27:49.560 years ago

00:27:50.640 but it

00:27:52.840 was more

00:27:53.160 of a

00:27:53.480 prank or

00:27:53.940 something.

00:27:54.460 But

00:27:54.580 whatever

00:27:54.860 it was,

00:27:56.220 Swalwell

00:27:56.660 turned him

00:27:57.700 that guy

00:27:58.200 into a

00:27:58.580 Nazi so 0.86

00:27:59.120 they could

00:27:59.420 try to

00:27:59.760 turn Grinnell

00:28:00.640 into a

00:28:01.040 Nazi.

00:28:01.860 But you

00:28:02.240 should have

00:28:02.680 seen that

00:28:03.160 one coming.

00:28:05.480 As soon as

00:28:06.440 Swalwell made

00:28:07.300 that claim,

00:28:08.100 you should

00:28:08.400 have said,

00:28:09.400 American

00:28:09.940 ambassador to

00:28:11.100 Germany,

00:28:12.560 publicly

00:28:13.040 hanging around

00:28:13.860 with a

00:28:14.280 Nazi in

00:28:15.940 Germany.

00:28:17.320 Probably

00:28:17.860 not.

00:28:18.400 Probably

00:28:19.220 not.

00:28:23.360 I guess

00:28:24.920 four of the

00:28:25.380 biggest accounting

00:28:25.980 firms have

00:28:26.760 announced that

00:28:27.340 they won't

00:28:27.640 do business

00:28:28.140 in Russia

00:28:28.580 anymore.

00:28:30.000 And so

00:28:30.340 I ask you

00:28:31.080 what's going

00:28:31.500 to happen

00:28:31.760 to Russia.

00:28:33.280 And here

00:28:33.700 is my

00:28:34.280 multi-point

00:28:35.240 prediction for

00:28:36.240 the Russian

00:28:36.620 economy.

00:28:37.260 You ready?

00:28:38.960 Predictions

00:28:39.480 for the

00:28:40.220 Russian

00:28:40.540 economy.

00:28:42.300 Now,

00:28:43.320 can anybody

00:28:44.100 predict

00:28:44.760 economics?

00:28:47.960 Not

00:28:48.480 really.

00:28:49.940 So when I

00:28:50.720 give you a

00:28:51.100 prediction,

00:28:51.580 the way you

00:28:51.920 should see it

00:28:52.380 is,

00:28:52.940 well,

00:28:53.260 this is one

00:28:53.720 way it

00:28:54.040 could go.

00:28:54.420 But nobody

00:28:55.680 can really

00:28:56.200 predict economics.

00:28:57.640 It's kind of

00:28:58.000 a crazy thing

00:28:58.680 to do.

00:28:59.840 So use your

00:29:00.800 judgment.

00:29:01.800 I'll just

00:29:02.240 describe one,

00:29:03.900 I think,

00:29:04.600 probable future.

00:29:06.840 But it's only

00:29:07.840 one of them.

00:29:08.740 One possible

00:29:09.480 future.

00:29:10.560 So number

00:29:11.080 one, you see

00:29:11.580 the accounting

00:29:12.060 firms are

00:29:12.600 pulling out.

00:29:13.100 What happens

00:29:13.540 when credible

00:29:14.520 accounting firms

00:29:15.460 are no longer

00:29:17.160 willing to say

00:29:18.040 that your firm

00:29:19.140 is doing its

00:29:19.880 accounting

00:29:20.740 credibly?

00:29:21.640 Well,

00:29:23.320 companies

00:29:23.760 basically buy

00:29:24.940 the credibility

00:29:25.800 of the

00:29:26.380 accounting firm,

00:29:27.920 even though

00:29:28.360 they often

00:29:28.900 lie to the

00:29:29.440 accounting firm.

00:29:30.180 So the

00:29:30.540 accounting firm

00:29:31.160 often does

00:29:31.840 nothing but

00:29:33.000 the books.

00:29:33.820 They don't

00:29:34.080 really know

00:29:34.500 the truth

00:29:34.940 of the

00:29:35.200 company.

00:29:35.980 But it

00:29:36.320 gives sort

00:29:36.780 of a

00:29:37.080 credibility

00:29:37.520 to a

00:29:38.280 company

00:29:38.580 that at

00:29:39.560 least the

00:29:40.360 accounting

00:29:40.720 firm is

00:29:41.260 honest.

00:29:42.320 That's the

00:29:42.720 one thing

00:29:43.100 you can

00:29:43.380 depend on.

00:29:43.960 They may

00:29:44.240 have bad

00:29:44.640 data from

00:29:45.280 the company,

00:29:46.240 but at

00:29:46.580 least they're

00:29:47.220 not lying

00:29:47.860 because they

00:29:48.380 have a

00:29:48.740 reputation

00:29:49.380 to uphold.

00:29:50.060 So when

00:29:50.960 the credible

00:29:51.540 ones leave,

00:29:53.060 you're left

00:29:53.600 saying,

00:29:54.240 should I

00:29:54.380 do business

00:29:54.920 with this

00:29:55.380 company,

00:29:56.540 or can I

00:29:57.680 even believe

00:29:58.260 their books?

00:30:00.480 So it

00:30:01.120 turns every

00:30:02.200 company that

00:30:02.820 was a little

00:30:03.280 bit credible

00:30:03.880 in Russia

00:30:04.420 into not

00:30:05.900 credible at

00:30:06.520 all.

00:30:07.880 And remember,

00:30:08.460 economies run

00:30:09.120 on psychology,

00:30:10.000 so that's a

00:30:10.460 big deal.

00:30:11.580 If you can't

00:30:12.180 trust the

00:30:12.760 person you're

00:30:13.200 working with,

00:30:13.700 you don't.

00:30:14.680 You work

00:30:15.240 with somebody

00:30:15.660 else you

00:30:16.020 can trust,

00:30:16.820 if you have

00:30:17.240 options,

00:30:17.720 and we do.

00:30:19.160 Then what

00:30:19.920 about the

00:30:20.300 insurance

00:30:20.800 companies who

00:30:21.860 are looking

00:30:22.240 at Russia

00:30:22.640 and saying,

00:30:23.060 you know,

00:30:23.800 we could

00:30:24.640 insure you

00:30:25.300 if things

00:30:25.880 stayed exactly

00:30:26.720 the way they

00:30:27.240 are, but

00:30:28.320 we can't

00:30:28.800 tell if things

00:30:29.380 will get worse

00:30:30.060 in terms of

00:30:30.740 more sanctions.

00:30:32.300 So we're not

00:30:32.820 even going to

00:30:33.320 touch the

00:30:33.820 things that

00:30:35.240 have been

00:30:35.500 carved out

00:30:36.100 from the

00:30:36.460 sanctions.

00:30:37.860 We can't

00:30:38.540 do the

00:30:38.820 things that

00:30:39.220 have sanctions

00:30:39.800 on them,

00:30:40.580 but we can't

00:30:41.480 even do the

00:30:41.940 things that

00:30:42.300 don't have

00:30:42.740 sanctions on

00:30:43.440 them because

00:30:43.780 they might

00:30:44.220 have a

00:30:44.520 sanction

00:30:44.800 someday.

00:30:46.180 And we're

00:30:46.400 the insurance

00:30:46.980 company,

00:30:47.860 and we work

00:30:48.580 on risk,

00:30:50.560 so we

00:30:50.940 can't get

00:30:51.280 near that.

00:30:52.100 So if you

00:30:52.600 can't get

00:30:53.040 credible

00:30:53.440 accounting,

00:30:53.900 and you

00:30:55.380 can't get

00:30:55.780 insurance for

00:30:57.120 ordinary business

00:30:58.160 activities,

00:30:59.380 you're in

00:31:00.200 real trouble,

00:31:01.780 and that's

00:31:02.140 where they

00:31:02.440 are.

00:31:04.740 Then you've

00:31:05.540 got the

00:31:06.960 Russian banks

00:31:07.680 and the

00:31:08.740 credit card

00:31:09.400 system is

00:31:10.440 going to use

00:31:11.000 China as

00:31:11.580 their bank,

00:31:12.240 basically,

00:31:12.820 for the

00:31:13.080 processing.

00:31:13.520 So all

00:31:14.400 the Chinese

00:31:15.080 banks,

00:31:17.140 and therefore

00:31:17.500 the government

00:31:18.040 of China,

00:31:19.360 will have

00:31:19.780 all of this

00:31:20.280 private information

00:31:21.140 about Russian

00:31:22.240 spending.

00:31:23.660 That can't

00:31:24.440 be good,

00:31:25.080 because persuasion

00:31:26.820 depends on

00:31:27.940 knowing what

00:31:28.840 people are

00:31:29.320 doing.

00:31:30.440 If you know

00:31:30.960 what people

00:31:31.340 are doing,

00:31:31.920 you can

00:31:32.260 persuade them.

00:31:33.860 So that's

00:31:34.220 a real

00:31:35.020 security

00:31:36.900 problem for

00:31:37.600 Russia,

00:31:39.340 to have

00:31:39.560 China know 0.81

00:31:40.040 that much

00:31:40.440 about their

00:31:40.860 citizens.

00:31:41.340 number four,

00:31:44.180 uncertainty

00:31:44.660 will cause

00:31:45.440 domestic

00:31:45.880 spending to

00:31:46.600 drop,

00:31:47.540 unless inflation

00:31:48.440 causes them

00:31:49.160 to overspend

00:31:49.940 and inflation

00:31:50.880 gets you.

00:31:51.880 But if you

00:31:52.600 don't know

00:31:53.020 what's going

00:31:53.380 to happen

00:31:53.600 tomorrow,

00:31:54.180 you're less

00:31:54.520 likely to buy

00:31:55.300 stuff,

00:31:55.760 because you

00:31:56.000 think,

00:31:56.340 well,

00:31:56.480 I better

00:31:56.680 save my

00:31:57.080 money for

00:31:57.660 buying food,

00:31:59.100 because I'll

00:31:59.400 need all of

00:31:59.840 it for that.

00:32:01.100 So if

00:32:01.580 domestic

00:32:01.960 spending drops,

00:32:02.920 the economy

00:32:03.380 starts to

00:32:03.920 plunge.

00:32:05.120 We already

00:32:05.520 see the

00:32:06.940 net worth

00:32:07.780 of companies

00:32:08.680 in Russia

00:32:09.160 is basically

00:32:09.900 zero.

00:32:11.340 Because you

00:32:12.020 couldn't

00:32:12.220 even buy

00:32:12.720 one.

00:32:15.340 Get rid

00:32:16.080 of the

00:32:16.540 bad

00:32:18.740 trolls

00:32:19.100 who are

00:32:19.680 doing a

00:32:20.020 bad job.

00:32:21.480 Then

00:32:21.980 you've got

00:32:23.980 Western

00:32:25.100 buyers of

00:32:25.780 Russian

00:32:26.120 energy,

00:32:27.980 the people

00:32:28.460 who we

00:32:29.180 think have

00:32:30.000 to buy

00:32:30.340 Russian

00:32:30.680 energy.

00:32:31.840 We don't

00:32:32.700 really have

00:32:33.300 to buy

00:32:33.600 Russian

00:32:33.940 energy,

00:32:34.860 because it

00:32:36.280 turns out

00:32:36.700 that the

00:32:37.040 rich countries

00:32:37.660 aren't going

00:32:38.080 to run

00:32:38.360 out of

00:32:38.660 energy.

00:32:39.160 They're

00:32:39.300 going to

00:32:39.500 pay more.

00:32:41.340 It's the

00:32:41.800 poor

00:32:42.020 countries

00:32:42.600 that can't

00:32:44.860 pay more,

00:32:46.000 and there

00:32:46.340 won't be

00:32:46.640 enough if

00:32:47.280 there's a

00:32:47.620 limit.

00:32:48.360 So the

00:32:48.780 poor

00:32:48.960 countries

00:32:49.360 just won't

00:32:49.860 get any.

00:32:50.960 Am I

00:32:51.300 wrong about

00:32:51.740 that?

00:32:52.020 As long

00:32:53.520 as the

00:32:54.140 price of

00:32:54.740 energy is

00:32:55.780 very flexible,

00:33:00.080 the rich

00:33:01.160 countries like

00:33:01.820 the United

00:33:02.180 States will

00:33:02.700 get as much

00:33:03.220 oil as they

00:33:03.720 want.

00:33:04.020 We'll just

00:33:04.340 pay twice

00:33:04.840 as much.

00:33:05.340 and the

00:33:06.940 poor

00:33:07.120 countries

00:33:07.520 will just

00:33:07.880 starve.

00:33:09.980 So I

00:33:10.480 think that's

00:33:10.840 what's

00:33:11.060 happening.

00:33:12.480 But I

00:33:13.820 do think

00:33:14.320 that the

00:33:15.300 Western

00:33:16.260 countries

00:33:16.880 and Europe

00:33:17.800 will find

00:33:19.160 ways around

00:33:22.040 Russian oil,

00:33:23.760 because they

00:33:25.040 can.

00:33:25.880 There's lots

00:33:26.500 of things you

00:33:27.000 wouldn't do

00:33:27.420 unless you

00:33:27.780 had to,

00:33:29.060 but depending

00:33:30.420 on Russian

00:33:30.900 oil is a

00:33:31.420 little like

00:33:31.740 this.

00:33:32.980 Have you

00:33:33.280 ever worked

00:33:33.720 in a

00:33:33.960 company where

00:33:34.540 you had an

00:33:35.000 indispensable

00:33:35.680 employee,

00:33:37.320 and then

00:33:38.600 they quit,

00:33:40.680 and then you

00:33:41.440 found out,

00:33:42.080 well, it turns

00:33:42.680 out they

00:33:42.980 weren't that

00:33:43.360 indispensable.

00:33:44.300 It was just

00:33:44.680 in your mind.

00:33:46.220 How many of

00:33:48.080 you have had

00:33:48.460 that experience?

00:33:49.800 Or you're in

00:33:50.500 a relationship,

00:33:51.980 and you think

00:33:52.420 it's sort of

00:33:53.060 indispensable to

00:33:54.020 your life,

00:33:55.100 like it's got

00:33:55.720 some problems,

00:33:56.800 but it's

00:33:57.660 indispensable.

00:33:58.360 There's no way

00:33:58.740 I can change

00:33:59.440 it.

00:34:00.160 And then

00:34:00.460 something happens

00:34:01.140 and it goes

00:34:01.600 away.

00:34:03.020 And you're

00:34:03.620 sad for a

00:34:04.460 while,

00:34:04.880 and then

00:34:05.180 a year

00:34:05.600 later,

00:34:06.320 you're like,

00:34:06.800 well, that

00:34:07.160 wasn't as

00:34:07.580 indispensable as

00:34:08.440 I thought.

00:34:09.820 It turns out

00:34:10.640 very few

00:34:11.220 things are

00:34:11.640 indispensable,

00:34:13.120 but we

00:34:13.520 think a lot

00:34:14.120 of things

00:34:14.460 are.

00:34:15.580 I think

00:34:16.160 Russian oil

00:34:16.840 is not

00:34:17.560 that indispensable

00:34:18.680 to Europe.

00:34:21.140 They could

00:34:21.760 find a way,

00:34:22.360 it's just

00:34:22.740 kind of hard,

00:34:23.660 but they

00:34:23.980 could do

00:34:24.240 it.

00:34:25.420 And that

00:34:26.520 would,

00:34:26.800 of course,

00:34:27.140 make the

00:34:27.840 energy from

00:34:28.960 Russia

00:34:29.480 basically captured

00:34:31.420 by China.

00:34:32.040 So China 0.92

00:34:32.540 would be

00:34:32.840 the main

00:34:33.220 buyer and

00:34:33.900 that would

00:34:34.220 give them

00:34:34.580 all kinds

00:34:34.980 of power

00:34:35.360 over Russia

00:34:35.940 because China

00:34:37.400 eventually won't

00:34:39.540 need that power

00:34:40.360 and they could

00:34:41.800 get it from

00:34:42.200 other places

00:34:42.740 too.

00:34:43.540 They're building

00:34:44.120 nuclear power

00:34:44.780 plants like

00:34:45.300 crazy and I

00:34:46.680 assume looking

00:34:48.040 for sources in

00:34:48.860 other places.

00:34:51.600 So it's

00:34:53.200 terrible to have

00:34:53.880 one big customer

00:34:54.840 because that big

00:34:55.480 customer owns you.

00:34:56.180 Have you ever

00:34:56.840 heard this

00:34:57.240 saying?

00:34:58.240 If you borrow

00:34:58.780 a million dollars

00:34:59.680 from a bank,

00:35:01.420 the bank owns

00:35:02.180 you.

00:35:02.860 Let's say that a 0.99

00:35:03.680 million dollars is

00:35:04.360 a lot in your

00:35:05.020 case.

00:35:05.740 If you borrow a

00:35:06.540 million from the

00:35:07.140 bank, the bank

00:35:07.740 owns you because

00:35:08.720 if you don't pay

00:35:09.300 it back, they

00:35:09.820 can cause a lot

00:35:10.820 of trouble for

00:35:11.360 your future

00:35:11.760 life.

00:35:12.820 But if you

00:35:14.060 borrow $10

00:35:14.940 billion from a

00:35:16.200 bank, you

00:35:17.640 own the bank

00:35:18.420 because they

00:35:19.680 can't afford

00:35:20.200 you to bail

00:35:23.640 out on that

00:35:24.240 loan.

00:35:25.480 It's bad

00:35:26.100 for you, but

00:35:26.680 it's way worse

00:35:27.240 for them.

00:35:27.700 They can't

00:35:28.000 lose that $10

00:35:28.960 billion.

00:35:30.620 So when

00:35:33.120 China becomes 0.96

00:35:33.980 the biggest

00:35:34.460 customer of

00:35:35.520 Russia, China

00:35:36.980 will effectively

00:35:37.740 own Russia in 0.85

00:35:38.760 the same way

00:35:39.280 that you

00:35:40.160 could own

00:35:40.520 the bank by

00:35:41.200 borrowing too

00:35:41.760 much.

00:35:44.640 Russia's going 0.97

00:35:45.340 to have

00:35:45.560 inability to

00:35:46.320 get new

00:35:46.660 parts, inability

00:35:47.440 to get new

00:35:48.020 technology, so

00:35:49.180 eventually you

00:35:49.800 would expect

00:35:50.180 the efficiency

00:35:50.860 of all Russian

00:35:52.080 industry to

00:35:52.820 disintegrate.

00:35:54.260 If you can't

00:35:55.160 get parts,

00:35:56.100 and you

00:35:56.340 can't get

00:35:56.940 new technology,

00:36:00.020 stuff's going

00:36:00.640 to rot.

00:36:01.720 It's just

00:36:02.000 going to fall

00:36:02.380 apart over

00:36:03.000 time.

00:36:03.980 Look at

00:36:04.380 Venezuela.

00:36:05.380 We're down

00:36:05.860 there looking

00:36:06.320 at their

00:36:06.620 oil, but

00:36:07.560 you look at

00:36:07.940 their oil

00:36:08.460 industry, and

00:36:09.240 because of the

00:36:10.180 sanctions, they

00:36:10.900 can't even

00:36:11.300 produce oil.

00:36:12.820 Venezuela barely

00:36:14.000 can produce oil,

00:36:15.620 and has tons

00:36:16.240 of it, but the

00:36:17.500 sanctions make it

00:36:18.280 almost impossible

00:36:18.940 to operate the

00:36:19.680 equipment.

00:36:20.000 So that's

00:36:21.300 where Russia's

00:36:21.800 heading.

00:36:23.040 Then, I'm

00:36:24.420 not even done,

00:36:25.240 it's getting

00:36:25.780 worse.

00:36:27.360 Then, the

00:36:28.260 Russian military

00:36:28.940 spending will

00:36:30.100 exceed the

00:36:30.600 economy's ability

00:36:31.580 to support it,

00:36:33.220 because it'll

00:36:33.620 be bogged

00:36:34.120 down in

00:36:35.320 Ukraine, they'll 0.97

00:36:36.560 have to keep

00:36:37.300 their military

00:36:37.840 big, and

00:36:39.040 just like

00:36:39.780 Reagan destroyed

00:36:40.680 the Soviet

00:36:41.120 Union, once

00:36:43.300 again, Putin

00:36:44.120 will destroy

00:36:45.000 Russia, because 0.99

00:36:46.200 the military will

00:36:47.020 suck up whatever

00:36:47.960 is left of the

00:36:48.760 economy that

00:36:49.580 will be shrinking

00:36:50.180 until the

00:36:51.860 whole thing just

00:36:52.440 collapses, just

00:36:53.460 like the Soviet 0.94

00:36:54.040 Union.

00:36:55.460 And, at that

00:36:56.740 point, China,

00:36:58.160 which basically

00:36:58.860 would own

00:36:59.560 Russia by

00:37:01.260 then, would

00:37:02.780 install a

00:37:03.540 puppet regime.

00:37:05.160 Yes, I'm

00:37:05.720 saying it.

00:37:06.660 The next leader

00:37:07.580 of Russia is

00:37:09.240 likely to be a

00:37:10.100 Chinese puppet. 0.96

00:37:13.500 And, because

00:37:15.220 by then, Russia's

00:37:17.460 economy would

00:37:18.220 be so feeble

00:37:19.240 that Chinese 1.00

00:37:20.640 money could

00:37:21.280 bribe anybody 0.97

00:37:22.060 in Russia.

00:37:24.300 Do you see

00:37:25.000 how that works?

00:37:26.420 As the Russian

00:37:27.320 economy shrinks

00:37:28.260 and shrinks and

00:37:28.860 shrinks, and

00:37:30.200 China gets 0.96

00:37:30.860 bigger and

00:37:32.480 bigger itself,

00:37:33.520 but also is

00:37:34.200 more and more

00:37:34.740 of their only

00:37:35.420 customer, China's

00:37:37.580 money, and

00:37:38.720 then their

00:37:39.140 friendly connections

00:37:40.620 to them, allows

00:37:42.360 China to directly

00:37:43.760 bribe literally

00:37:45.360 everybody that

00:37:46.200 matters in

00:37:47.820 Russia over 0.95

00:37:48.480 time.

00:37:49.440 And then they

00:37:50.160 just install a

00:37:50.940 puppet.

00:37:52.820 So, after

00:37:53.700 Putin, it's a

00:37:54.720 puppet.

00:37:55.500 It's a Chinese 1.00

00:37:56.080 puppet.

00:37:56.720 But it would be a

00:37:57.440 puppet over a

00:37:58.000 country that is

00:37:59.260 barely there.

00:38:00.620 I don't even know

00:38:01.420 if the United

00:38:01.880 States will be

00:38:02.500 less safe.

00:38:03.800 It's hard to

00:38:04.620 say.

00:38:04.840 And then Russia 0.73

00:38:08.420 itself would

00:38:09.100 become irrelevant

00:38:09.780 over time, because

00:38:11.260 the only thing

00:38:11.980 they had going

00:38:12.480 for them was

00:38:13.340 their military

00:38:14.200 that China would 0.93

00:38:14.940 largely control at

00:38:16.100 that point, and

00:38:17.220 their energy, which

00:38:18.120 was dirty energy

00:38:19.140 and green energy

00:38:20.760 and other

00:38:21.200 suppliers, would

00:38:22.020 be filling the

00:38:22.900 gap by then.

00:38:24.140 So Russia would 0.95

00:38:24.980 continue to just

00:38:27.080 become irrelevant.

00:38:29.980 And then Putin

00:38:30.800 would be remembered

00:38:31.660 as the second

00:38:32.480 Russian leader to

00:38:33.420 destroy Russia. 0.86

00:38:34.840 by prioritizing

00:38:36.200 the military over

00:38:37.120 the economy.

00:38:39.240 The destruction

00:38:40.240 of the Soviet

00:38:40.840 Union was the 0.87

00:38:41.920 prioritization of

00:38:42.920 the military over

00:38:43.840 the economy.

00:38:45.680 Putin's doing

00:38:46.260 the same thing.

00:38:47.820 And when he

00:38:48.520 does the same

00:38:49.180 thing, everybody

00:38:50.700 who is a

00:38:51.340 historian is going

00:38:52.180 to say, well,

00:38:52.800 you should have

00:38:53.160 seen that coming.

00:38:54.620 If you prioritize

00:38:55.520 your military over

00:38:56.880 your economy, you're

00:38:59.560 screwed.

00:39:00.660 Did China do 0.93

00:39:01.580 that?

00:39:02.640 Did you see

00:39:03.360 China prioritize 0.99

00:39:04.460 their military

00:39:05.240 over their

00:39:05.980 economy?

00:39:07.240 I don't think

00:39:08.200 he did, did

00:39:08.800 you?

00:39:09.860 I feel like

00:39:11.000 China actually

00:39:11.620 has a smallish

00:39:12.580 military compared

00:39:14.060 to what they

00:39:14.640 could do if

00:39:16.060 they wanted to

00:39:16.640 go, you know,

00:39:17.460 just full

00:39:18.380 military, right?

00:39:20.640 So it seems to

00:39:21.860 me that China

00:39:23.140 got it exactly

00:39:23.980 right.

00:39:24.920 It seems like

00:39:25.820 Europe is getting

00:39:26.520 it exactly right,

00:39:27.740 relying on U.S.

00:39:29.140 firepower to a

00:39:30.280 large extent.

00:39:30.840 But it looks

00:39:32.060 like Russia is 0.89

00:39:32.740 making the

00:39:33.180 same damn

00:39:33.640 mistake that

00:39:35.460 the Soviet

00:39:35.880 Union made, 0.69

00:39:36.740 prioritizing

00:39:37.360 military because

00:39:38.880 we must conquer

00:39:40.640 countries and

00:39:41.420 strength is what

00:39:42.140 matters.

00:39:43.460 Looks like that's

00:39:44.420 what happened.

00:39:45.460 And so Putin is

00:39:46.400 looking at, you

00:39:47.340 know, the worst

00:39:47.820 possible outcome

00:39:48.700 for him, I

00:39:49.580 think.

00:39:50.840 Now, I guess

00:39:51.720 Putin has

00:39:52.160 offered four

00:39:53.720 conditions for

00:39:54.820 ending the war.

00:39:55.480 Do we think

00:39:57.440 he's serious?

00:39:59.560 Help me with

00:40:00.380 the four

00:40:00.700 conditions, if

00:40:01.560 I, because I'm

00:40:02.260 going by memory.

00:40:04.040 I think we

00:40:05.040 had that to

00:40:06.360 Ukraine and

00:40:07.940 everybody else, I

00:40:08.660 guess, has to

00:40:09.160 recognize that

00:40:09.800 Crimea is part of

00:40:10.700 Russia, which

00:40:12.240 it effectively is.

00:40:14.080 We have to

00:40:15.000 agree that the

00:40:16.260 independent regions,

00:40:17.880 the two independent

00:40:18.520 regions are

00:40:19.340 independent, I

00:40:20.100 guess.

00:40:20.940 And then

00:40:21.660 Ukraine has to

00:40:24.120 put into its

00:40:24.780 constitution, no

00:40:26.780 NATO involvement

00:40:27.580 ever, and

00:40:30.040 was there a, oh,

00:40:32.180 and then the

00:40:32.880 Ukrainian army had

00:40:34.420 to stop fighting.

00:40:36.520 And Putin says,

00:40:37.760 if you just do

00:40:38.340 those four things,

00:40:39.400 which on paper

00:40:40.120 sound almost

00:40:40.980 reasonable, almost,

00:40:43.520 if you just do

00:40:44.260 those four things,

00:40:45.860 we'll stop

00:40:46.520 fighting immediately.

00:40:48.620 Now, I am

00:40:51.180 demilitarized, I

00:40:51.980 guess, but that

00:40:53.660 doesn't sound

00:40:54.160 serious at all

00:40:55.280 to me.

00:40:55.840 Does it sound

00:40:56.300 serious to you?

00:40:57.700 Because, first

00:40:58.460 of all, all he

00:41:00.040 has to do is say

00:41:00.780 the Ukrainians are 0.78

00:41:01.800 continuing to fire

00:41:02.960 at us.

00:41:04.240 That's it.

00:41:05.220 It's exactly the

00:41:06.100 same thing he says

00:41:06.800 all the time.

00:41:07.580 His most common

00:41:08.560 lie is you're

00:41:09.980 shooting at us

00:41:10.600 first.

00:41:11.700 Why would that

00:41:12.400 change?

00:41:13.480 It worked every

00:41:14.500 time he's used

00:41:15.160 it.

00:41:15.900 If there's

00:41:16.300 something that

00:41:16.740 works every time

00:41:17.740 you use it,

00:41:19.080 why would you

00:41:20.040 expect them to

00:41:20.680 stop using it?

00:41:21.540 So, if one

00:41:22.820 of the conditions

00:41:23.400 is we, Russia,

00:41:25.500 have to claim that

00:41:26.440 the other side

00:41:27.120 stopped shooting

00:41:27.860 at us, that's

00:41:28.820 never going to

00:41:29.340 happen.

00:41:30.100 How long would

00:41:30.720 it take Ukraine

00:41:31.460 to change their

00:41:32.500 constitution while

00:41:33.900 their country is

00:41:34.600 at war?

00:41:36.380 Probably can't be

00:41:37.240 done.

00:41:38.100 So, he's asking

00:41:38.740 for something that

00:41:39.460 sounds easy.

00:41:40.640 Hey, just put that

00:41:41.360 NATO thing in there.

00:41:43.000 Probably can't be

00:41:43.720 done.

00:41:44.100 Like, physically,

00:41:45.500 timing-wise, just

00:41:46.380 couldn't be done in

00:41:47.420 the time that it

00:41:48.040 would affect the

00:41:48.800 war.

00:41:49.000 And then the

00:41:51.740 giving recognition

00:41:53.620 to Crimea and

00:41:54.720 the other thing

00:41:55.180 really don't

00:41:55.740 change much.

00:41:57.040 Those two just

00:41:57.700 sound like...

00:41:58.760 I think those

00:41:59.540 are the fake

00:42:00.060 ones.

00:42:01.200 Because you say

00:42:02.060 to yourself,

00:42:02.560 wait a minute,

00:42:04.140 Russia's asking 0.94

00:42:04.820 for two things

00:42:05.900 that you really

00:42:07.300 understand.

00:42:08.560 They want control

00:42:09.380 over those regions.

00:42:10.880 And then they

00:42:11.280 could credibly

00:42:13.740 say, all we

00:42:15.920 did was denazify

00:42:18.280 it.

00:42:19.000 I mean, that's

00:42:19.460 not what they

00:42:19.920 were doing.

00:42:20.760 But they

00:42:21.260 could credibly

00:42:21.840 say, all we

00:42:22.540 wanted was

00:42:23.000 these regions.

00:42:24.060 And then they

00:42:24.560 would just keep

00:42:25.140 consolidating Ukraine

00:42:26.120 over time, any

00:42:27.060 way they wanted.

00:42:28.200 So, that's a

00:42:30.660 non-starter.

00:42:32.280 All right.

00:42:33.960 Here's my

00:42:34.580 promise to you.

00:42:35.520 I am going to

00:42:36.100 change some of

00:42:37.420 your lives.

00:42:38.480 I'm going to

00:42:38.860 change one

00:42:39.420 person's life in

00:42:41.020 particular.

00:42:42.540 You want to

00:42:43.240 play along?

00:42:44.880 Help me change

00:42:45.620 one person's life

00:42:46.520 in particular.

00:42:47.280 And in so

00:42:48.380 doing, it

00:42:49.820 will help

00:42:50.180 other people

00:42:50.760 in their

00:42:51.660 lives.

00:42:52.340 I was looking

00:42:53.100 through Twitter

00:42:53.540 and I came

00:42:54.000 across a

00:42:54.700 Twitter thread

00:42:55.500 by a gentleman

00:42:56.520 I don't know

00:42:57.040 anything about.

00:42:58.640 He goes by

00:42:59.540 the name

00:42:59.920 Gerwinder.

00:43:03.200 And I'm

00:43:04.700 going to

00:43:05.060 recommend him

00:43:05.720 as your

00:43:06.360 follow.

00:43:09.240 I'm going to

00:43:09.860 tell you one

00:43:10.440 of the things

00:43:11.100 that he put

00:43:11.640 in a 40-point

00:43:13.160 thread.

00:43:13.760 and in

00:43:14.700 his thread

00:43:15.580 he claimed

00:43:16.240 this.

00:43:18.100 He said,

00:43:19.240 in 40

00:43:20.320 tweets, I'll

00:43:21.000 explain 40

00:43:21.820 useful concepts

00:43:22.820 you should

00:43:23.380 know.

00:43:24.300 It'll take you

00:43:24.920 less than

00:43:25.320 seven minutes

00:43:26.020 and he said

00:43:27.340 the value

00:43:27.840 would be

00:43:28.240 potentially a

00:43:29.160 lifetime.

00:43:30.360 Do you think

00:43:30.760 he delivered?

00:43:32.300 Now, remember,

00:43:32.980 I don't know

00:43:33.320 anything about

00:43:33.820 him.

00:43:35.860 Right?

00:43:36.340 But do you

00:43:36.740 think he

00:43:37.060 delivered on

00:43:37.640 this claim

00:43:38.160 40 tweets

00:43:39.080 and he would

00:43:40.700 teach you 40

00:43:41.360 useful concepts

00:43:42.260 that basically

00:43:43.020 would have

00:43:43.560 potential change

00:43:44.720 your life

00:43:45.120 for a lifetime?

00:43:47.260 He actually

00:43:48.020 did.

00:43:49.060 He actually

00:43:49.820 delivered it.

00:43:50.920 Now, I'll

00:43:53.060 tell you the

00:43:54.220 actual name to

00:43:55.060 follow in a

00:43:55.660 moment.

00:43:56.520 But I'm not

00:43:57.760 going to read

00:43:58.200 the thread to

00:43:58.720 you.

00:43:59.160 I'm just going

00:43:59.680 to tell you

00:44:00.000 that I looked

00:44:00.500 through it and

00:44:01.060 I said to

00:44:01.460 myself,

00:44:03.680 it does look

00:44:06.840 like this is

00:44:08.380 useful stuff.

00:44:10.240 And I'll give

00:44:10.660 you one example

00:44:11.460 which ties to

00:44:13.460 this.

00:44:14.360 First of all,

00:44:15.020 the individual,

00:44:16.440 if you do a

00:44:17.620 search on

00:44:18.040 Twitter,

00:44:18.960 search for

00:44:19.500 a G-U-R 1.00

00:44:21.100 winder,

00:44:22.860 G-U-R-W-I-N-D-E-R, 1.00

00:44:26.880 which I will

00:44:27.540 point to with

00:44:29.600 my back

00:44:30.020 scratcher.

00:44:31.540 G-U-R-W-I-N-D-E-R. 1.00

00:44:34.060 Or at G-S-B-H-O-G-A-L. 0.99

00:44:39.060 All right, so

00:44:40.280 his life we're

00:44:41.620 going to change

00:44:42.200 because we're

00:44:43.380 going to send

00:44:43.780 him a lot of

00:44:44.220 followers.

00:44:45.220 Now the reason

00:44:45.760 I'm sending him

00:44:46.360 a lot of

00:44:46.680 followers is

00:44:48.040 that I look

00:44:48.600 through some

00:44:49.380 of his other

00:44:49.880 tweets and

00:44:50.880 they're actually

00:44:51.460 really good and

00:44:53.460 useful.

00:44:54.180 Here's one

00:44:54.780 example.

00:44:56.180 And I would

00:44:57.020 say that I

00:44:57.760 recognize most

00:44:58.720 of the things he

00:44:59.520 was teaching,

00:45:00.400 but you could

00:45:01.200 get a good

00:45:01.600 idea how good

00:45:02.920 your awareness

00:45:03.540 of the world

00:45:04.080 is by how

00:45:05.220 many of the

00:45:05.680 40 things you've

00:45:06.460 already heard of.

00:45:07.100 If you haven't

00:45:08.440 heard of all

00:45:08.840 40, maybe you

00:45:10.720 should.

00:45:11.680 All right, here's

00:45:12.220 one of the

00:45:12.500 claims.

00:45:12.940 The more

00:45:13.160 notable the

00:45:13.740 data, the

00:45:14.700 more likely it

00:45:15.440 is fake.

00:45:16.380 That's what I

00:45:17.200 introduced early

00:45:18.360 in the live

00:45:18.880 stream.

00:45:19.400 I've talked

00:45:19.760 about this

00:45:20.180 before.

00:45:21.380 Scott Alexander,

00:45:22.620 that's a pen

00:45:23.340 name, not a

00:45:23.880 real person,

00:45:24.940 introduced this

00:45:25.960 the first time I

00:45:26.620 ever saw it.

00:45:28.440 It has to do

00:45:29.200 with the fact

00:45:29.640 that ordinary

00:45:30.780 stuff, it

00:45:31.620 doesn't make

00:45:32.060 news.

00:45:33.160 So something

00:45:33.680 has to be

00:45:34.200 incredible, such

00:45:36.120 as, how

00:45:37.160 about the

00:45:37.720 Russian army

00:45:38.300 will give

00:45:38.780 you a 0.57

00:45:39.120 corridor for

00:45:39.940 the women 0.97

00:45:40.860 and children

00:45:41.360 to escape,

00:45:42.400 but then

00:45:42.980 they're going

00:45:43.280 to bomb

00:45:43.760 and mine

00:45:44.320 the corridor.

00:45:45.900 That would

00:45:46.660 be pretty

00:45:47.880 shocking if

00:45:49.480 it were

00:45:49.900 true.

00:45:51.240 And so, we

00:45:53.380 don't know if

00:45:53.760 it's true.

00:45:54.380 By the way, it

00:45:54.900 could be true,

00:45:56.180 but it's

00:45:56.560 probably a 90%

00:45:57.440 chance against

00:45:58.120 it because of

00:45:59.840 this rule.

00:46:00.720 If you don't

00:46:01.420 understand that

00:46:02.880 the more

00:46:03.280 fantastic the

00:46:04.260 news, the

00:46:04.800 less likely it's

00:46:05.740 true, you

00:46:07.020 will go

00:46:07.340 through life

00:46:07.820 being just,

00:46:09.040 your head will

00:46:09.820 be on fire

00:46:10.580 because you'll

00:46:14.960 think the

00:46:15.340 news is true.

00:46:16.760 It's not.

00:46:18.340 But because

00:46:19.140 the news likes

00:46:19.860 the click

00:46:20.320 model, whatever

00:46:21.220 gets the most

00:46:21.860 attention gets

00:46:23.080 the most money,

00:46:25.040 that leads to

00:46:26.460 a point where

00:46:27.060 eventually all

00:46:28.000 news will be

00:46:28.680 fake.

00:46:29.720 Not really all

00:46:30.640 news, but you

00:46:31.240 know what I

00:46:31.560 mean.

00:46:31.960 The political

00:46:32.620 news, the

00:46:34.440 political news

00:46:35.380 will trend

00:46:36.620 toward either

00:46:38.020 completely fake

00:46:39.080 or at least

00:46:39.700 out of context.

00:46:41.580 It has to

00:46:42.460 because of

00:46:43.760 these effects.

00:46:45.300 That the

00:46:45.620 more notable

00:46:47.120 stuff is

00:46:47.760 usually fake.

00:46:49.180 That's the

00:46:49.680 stuff that

00:46:50.080 pays.

00:46:51.040 So in the

00:46:51.460 long run,

00:46:52.060 there's just

00:46:52.460 no way to

00:46:52.980 avoid this.

00:46:53.540 In the long

00:46:53.960 run, all the

00:46:54.460 news has to

00:46:54.940 be fake about

00:46:56.240 political stuff.

00:46:57.400 And also maybe

00:46:58.040 scientific stuff

00:46:58.960 if it has a

00:46:59.960 political element

00:47:00.860 to it.

00:47:02.260 How do I

00:47:02.940 know this is

00:47:03.480 true?

00:47:03.840 Well, the

00:47:04.260 gel man amnesia

00:47:05.440 concept confirms

00:47:07.360 that this has

00:47:08.160 already happened.

00:47:09.300 You've heard it

00:47:09.820 a million times,

00:47:10.660 but I'll tell it

00:47:11.160 to you again.

00:47:12.680 Did I spell it

00:47:13.200 wrong?

00:47:14.120 Two L's in

00:47:14.960 gel.

00:47:16.680 I almost

00:47:17.520 looked that up

00:47:18.140 before I put it

00:47:18.760 here.

00:47:19.960 I knew one of

00:47:20.600 you would

00:47:20.920 correct me.

00:47:24.540 Is there two

00:47:25.200 N's? 0.99

00:47:27.020 All right.

00:47:28.360 But whatever

00:47:29.000 it is, however

00:47:30.040 many L's and

00:47:30.800 N's there 0.99

00:47:31.160 are, the

00:47:32.040 gel man amnesia

00:47:33.080 states that if

00:47:34.560 it's a topic

00:47:35.560 that you're an 0.62

00:47:36.300 expert upon,

00:47:37.820 you'll know

00:47:39.000 that the news

00:47:39.500 is fake.

00:47:40.740 For example,

00:47:42.140 I'm an expert

00:47:42.940 on Dilbert

00:47:44.540 things.

00:47:46.160 Dilbert

00:47:46.560 things.

00:47:47.660 And so when

00:47:48.180 I heard that

00:47:48.780 Russia gave a 0.87

00:47:49.940 corridor for

00:47:50.700 escape and

00:47:51.940 then bombed

00:47:52.540 it, I said

00:47:53.840 to myself,

00:47:55.040 maybe,

00:47:56.100 maybe, but

00:47:57.120 in all my

00:47:57.740 Dilbert

00:47:58.180 expertise,

00:47:59.000 that sounds

00:47:59.900 exactly like

00:48:00.740 somebody who's

00:48:01.240 just not

00:48:01.660 communicating with

00:48:02.560 their own

00:48:02.900 team, which

00:48:04.200 is just the

00:48:04.740 most normal

00:48:05.240 thing in the

00:48:05.700 world.

00:48:07.280 Doesn't mean

00:48:07.920 I'm right,

00:48:08.920 but it does

00:48:09.420 give you an

00:48:09.840 extra vision

00:48:10.500 into things

00:48:11.140 statistically

00:48:12.380 speaking.

00:48:14.380 And so

00:48:14.800 this would be

00:48:17.600 one of the

00:48:18.100 concepts that

00:48:19.780 you'll see in

00:48:20.200 this 40

00:48:20.780 tweet thing.

00:48:22.120 You can go

00:48:22.580 follow

00:48:23.100 Gurwinder or

00:48:24.800 you can

00:48:25.380 follow,

00:48:27.260 if you follow

00:48:27.880 me, you

00:48:28.440 can see his

00:48:28.980 tweet in

00:48:29.600 my thread.

00:48:31.720 So here's

00:48:32.240 what I'm

00:48:32.500 going to say

00:48:32.780 to you.

00:48:33.180 I believe

00:48:33.620 that he came

00:48:34.940 through with

00:48:35.560 his promise.

00:48:37.340 I believe

00:48:37.700 that in

00:48:38.020 seven minutes,

00:48:39.540 and I'm

00:48:40.020 going to,

00:48:40.620 for the

00:48:40.880 people who

00:48:41.700 subscribe on

00:48:42.700 Locals,

00:48:43.660 you should

00:48:44.540 treat this as

00:48:45.200 just a given.

00:48:46.040 You should go

00:48:46.520 read this.

00:48:48.640 You know,

00:48:49.140 I teach all

00:48:50.040 these micro

00:48:50.640 lessons on

00:48:51.880 the subscription

00:48:53.340 platform on

00:48:54.180 Locals,

00:48:54.520 and what

00:48:55.700 I do is

00:48:56.120 a little

00:48:56.520 video lesson

00:48:57.240 where you

00:48:57.580 can learn

00:48:58.020 a life

00:48:59.000 skill in

00:49:00.040 two or

00:49:00.560 three minutes.

00:49:02.100 But Gurwinder

00:49:02.660 did this

00:49:03.220 with 40

00:49:04.400 things that

00:49:04.900 you can

00:49:05.200 learn in

00:49:05.560 seven minutes,

00:49:06.200 so he

00:49:06.460 topped me,

00:49:07.740 and I

00:49:07.900 thought I

00:49:08.120 was doing

00:49:08.400 pretty good.

00:49:09.620 But he

00:49:10.100 definitely

00:49:10.380 topped me.

00:49:11.440 Now,

00:49:11.720 you've seen

00:49:12.040 long threads,

00:49:14.480 and sometimes

00:49:15.380 they're fun,

00:49:16.580 but this is

00:49:17.500 actually the

00:49:17.920 most useful

00:49:18.440 one I think

00:49:19.600 you'll ever

00:49:19.920 see.

00:49:20.140 The first

00:49:22.260 life we're

00:49:22.720 going to

00:49:22.920 change is

00:49:24.340 the gentleman

00:49:25.540 I've been

00:49:26.900 talking about

00:49:27.540 who deserves

00:49:29.540 more followers,

00:49:30.660 because if you

00:49:31.680 can boost his

00:49:32.400 signal, it

00:49:33.600 will help

00:49:34.140 useful messages

00:49:35.400 such as his

00:49:36.240 last thread get

00:49:37.380 to more people,

00:49:38.140 and you can

00:49:38.460 see from his

00:49:39.040 Twitter feed

00:49:40.480 that he has

00:49:40.920 lots of useful

00:49:41.520 stuff.

00:49:46.320 I also saw

00:49:48.780 some interesting

00:49:49.440 data.

00:49:50.140 that at any

00:49:51.240 given night,

00:49:52.780 fewer than

00:49:53.380 1% of people

00:49:54.660 watch the

00:49:55.220 news, like

00:49:56.820 the TV

00:49:57.760 news, and

00:49:59.100 that if you

00:49:59.640 were to find

00:50:00.060 out how many

00:50:00.540 people in the

00:50:01.860 general public

00:50:02.600 are following

00:50:03.540 any of this

00:50:04.240 stuff, it's

00:50:06.100 almost nobody.

00:50:08.020 We're living

00:50:08.960 in the smallest

00:50:09.660 bubble, all

00:50:11.820 of you and

00:50:12.360 I.

00:50:14.360 Only 25% of

00:50:15.880 people tweet

00:50:16.480 or have

00:50:17.680 Twitter.

00:50:18.540 I think it's

00:50:18.900 25%.

00:50:19.720 And I

00:50:23.420 think people

00:50:23.840 are also

00:50:24.220 realizing that

00:50:24.900 the news

00:50:25.240 isn't real.

00:50:28.360 If there's

00:50:29.020 one thing

00:50:29.400 that would

00:50:29.680 stop you

00:50:30.200 following the

00:50:31.340 news, it's

00:50:32.180 the realization

00:50:32.840 that it's not

00:50:33.620 real anyway.

00:50:34.640 So you have

00:50:35.200 to wonder what

00:50:35.800 your net gain

00:50:37.140 is.

00:50:37.840 Now, in my

00:50:38.440 case, since

00:50:40.520 what I talk

00:50:41.200 about is fake

00:50:42.420 news, for me

00:50:43.800 it's a target-rich

00:50:44.660 environment, but

00:50:46.060 I'm not sure why

00:50:46.780 other people

00:50:47.200 watch the

00:50:47.600 news.

00:50:52.760 How's the

00:50:53.380 news media

00:50:53.880 still in

00:50:54.340 business?

00:50:54.940 I just

00:50:55.440 explained it.

00:50:56.840 The news

00:50:57.280 media is still

00:50:57.960 in business

00:50:58.560 because people

00:50:59.740 really get a

00:51:00.360 dopamine hit

00:51:01.020 reading fake

00:51:01.740 stories.

00:51:02.160 If it gets

00:51:03.720 you going,

00:51:05.000 gives you a

00:51:05.540 little treat,

00:51:06.800 a little reward,

00:51:09.300 you're going to

00:51:09.760 do more of it.

00:51:10.560 So that's all it

00:51:11.040 takes.

00:51:11.680 You've been

00:51:12.340 trained like a

00:51:13.060 chicken working

00:51:13.680 for pellets.

00:51:15.480 That's it.

00:51:16.060 That's the whole

00:51:16.540 news business

00:51:17.180 now is chicken

00:51:18.020 and pellet.

00:51:19.640 Let me explain

00:51:20.560 the entire

00:51:21.160 media model.

00:51:23.720 Chicken,

00:51:25.120 pellet.

00:51:26.200 That's it.

00:51:30.020 Yeah, Tucker

00:51:30.600 has 4 million

00:51:31.600 viewers and

00:51:32.360 land with over

00:51:33.140 300 million.

00:51:34.460 Well, I will

00:51:36.460 quibble with

00:51:37.180 your number.

00:51:39.360 Yes, there

00:51:39.800 are 300,

00:51:40.660 well, 370

00:51:41.560 million or

00:51:42.040 whatever.

00:51:43.680 But if you

00:51:44.780 take out

00:51:45.140 the kids

00:51:45.740 and you

00:51:47.900 take out

00:51:48.300 the people

00:51:48.760 who are

00:51:49.320 like in

00:51:49.760 comas and

00:51:50.640 people who

00:51:51.540 don't speak

00:51:51.960 English,

00:51:52.920 you can

00:51:54.080 whittle that

00:51:54.600 down quite a

00:51:55.260 bit.

00:51:56.920 And then

00:51:57.580 you limit it

00:51:59.280 to people who

00:51:59.960 pay attention

00:52:00.600 and form

00:52:02.380 opinions for

00:52:03.100 the other

00:52:03.440 people.

00:52:04.720 It turns

00:52:05.180 out that I

00:52:06.840 don't think

00:52:07.500 there are

00:52:07.860 more than

00:52:08.500 let's see

00:52:11.720 if you agree

00:52:12.160 with this.

00:52:12.440 I don't

00:52:13.220 think there

00:52:13.640 are more

00:52:14.000 than 100,000

00:52:15.700 people who

00:52:17.540 make all

00:52:18.060 of our

00:52:18.360 decisions.

00:52:20.380 What do

00:52:20.720 you think?

00:52:21.760 Now, it

00:52:22.020 might be a

00:52:22.400 different 100,000

00:52:23.360 depending on

00:52:24.720 what the topic

00:52:25.260 is, but

00:52:25.800 largely the

00:52:26.380 same ones.

00:52:27.300 Yeah, the

00:52:27.600 overlap is

00:52:28.320 mostly the

00:52:29.280 same ones.

00:52:30.600 And here's

00:52:31.080 why.

00:52:32.700 Most people

00:52:33.540 are repeaters

00:52:34.780 of opinions.

00:52:36.220 They're not

00:52:37.020 people who

00:52:37.680 formed an

00:52:38.120 opinion because

00:52:38.640 they did

00:52:38.900 their own

00:52:39.200 work.

00:52:39.540 So that

00:52:41.700 100,000 are

00:52:43.200 all the

00:52:43.620 influential

00:52:44.100 people who

00:52:44.740 did the

00:52:45.120 work.

00:52:46.920 And so

00:52:47.480 the few

00:52:49.220 who did

00:52:49.540 a lot of

00:52:49.920 work,

00:52:51.600 the Glenn

00:52:53.620 Beck's and

00:52:54.180 the Hannity's

00:52:54.980 and the

00:52:55.460 Rachel

00:52:55.960 Maddow's

00:52:56.760 and Chris

00:52:58.240 Hayes and

00:52:58.920 everybody else.

00:52:59.960 So the

00:53:00.280 people who

00:53:00.580 did the

00:53:00.880 deep dives

00:53:01.580 informed the

00:53:03.280 100,000.

00:53:03.920 and then

00:53:05.340 the 100,000

00:53:06.120 become like

00:53:06.780 evangelists in

00:53:07.840 a sense because

00:53:09.020 they're the

00:53:09.260 ones who

00:53:09.520 really, really

00:53:10.020 have opinions.

00:53:11.280 So you go to

00:53:11.840 a party and

00:53:13.440 there are five

00:53:14.020 of you there

00:53:14.640 and four of

00:53:15.820 you never

00:53:16.140 heard of the

00:53:16.560 topic but

00:53:17.160 one of you

00:53:17.680 really paid

00:53:18.460 attention.

00:53:19.800 And that

00:53:20.040 person influences

00:53:20.800 the other

00:53:21.200 four because

00:53:21.660 they're like,

00:53:21.980 well, I

00:53:22.360 heard that

00:53:22.680 one thing.

00:53:24.440 This guy

00:53:25.300 said that

00:53:26.280 one thing

00:53:26.720 that sounded

00:53:27.080 pretty good

00:53:27.480 to me.

00:53:28.200 I didn't

00:53:28.480 hear the

00:53:28.760 other argument

00:53:29.240 but it

00:53:29.700 sounded good.

00:53:30.220 My neighbor

00:53:30.580 said it.

00:53:30.940 So I

00:53:32.280 think it's

00:53:32.660 100,000

00:53:33.260 people that

00:53:33.740 affect

00:53:34.000 everything.

00:53:36.460 Which means

00:53:37.420 if I ever

00:53:38.480 got to a

00:53:38.980 million viewers

00:53:39.680 on this

00:53:40.680 platform,

00:53:42.960 I would

00:53:43.500 probably,

00:53:44.880 you would

00:53:45.200 see my

00:53:45.560 influence just

00:53:46.240 everywhere probably.

00:53:48.300 So it's a

00:53:49.000 good thing I

00:53:49.400 don't.

00:53:51.860 I do have

00:53:52.600 100,000

00:53:53.120 subscribers but

00:53:54.720 not 100,000

00:53:55.500 viewers daily.

00:53:57.260 All right.

00:53:57.800 That's all I've

00:53:58.300 got for now.

00:53:59.780 Would you

00:54:00.380 agree?

00:54:00.940 That I

00:54:02.200 have changed

00:54:03.060 many of

00:54:04.260 yours lives

00:54:05.380 and one

00:54:05.860 person in

00:54:06.320 particular.

00:54:07.580 Have I

00:54:08.260 satisfied my

00:54:09.840 claim?

00:54:10.800 Yes or

00:54:11.220 no?

00:54:13.680 Of course

00:54:14.420 I did.

00:54:15.260 Of course

00:54:15.680 I did.

00:54:18.560 The people

00:54:19.360 on Locals

00:54:19.900 are happier

00:54:20.400 or more

00:54:21.700 generous.

00:54:23.160 The people

00:54:23.960 on YouTube,

00:54:25.660 you should

00:54:27.200 see the

00:54:27.520 difference.

00:54:30.160 Yeah,

00:54:30.300 well okay,

00:54:31.260 some of you

00:54:32.000 on YouTube

00:54:32.380 are being

00:54:33.420 more generous

00:54:33.980 and I

00:54:34.480 appreciate you.

00:54:35.780 I appreciate

00:54:36.520 you every

00:54:37.040 day.

00:54:38.000 All right.

00:54:39.040 So some

00:54:41.620 of you,

00:54:42.080 I hope it

00:54:42.500 changed your

00:54:42.920 life and

00:54:44.200 that's all for

00:54:45.620 today and I'll

00:54:46.860 talk to you

00:54:47.460 on YouTube

00:54:48.560 tomorrow.

00:54:49.300 do

00:54:51.000 well.

00:54:56.780 Yeah,

00:54:56.940 what a

00:55:03.320 butter

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 08, 2022

Episode 1676 Scott Adams： Today I'm Going to Change Some People's Lives. One Person in Particular Who Doesn't See it Coming

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