Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1676 Scott Adams： Today I'm Going to Change Some People's Lives. One Person in Particular Who Doesn't See it Coming

00:00:00.000 Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

00:00:08.320 Today, a special treat.

00:00:11.640 You know, normally this is the highlight of your entire life,

00:00:14.960 coming to Coffee with Scott Adams,

00:00:16.980 but today, I'm going to take it up a notch.

00:00:20.200 Somebody's life will be changed today.

00:00:23.760 Is it you?

00:00:25.400 Well, I don't know. Probably not.

00:00:27.420 But somebody's life is going to be changed,

00:00:30.980 and in the process of doing that,

00:00:34.840 most of you are going to become more powerful today.

00:00:40.260 Do you think I can deliver on that?

00:00:43.160 I'm going to make most of you more powerful,

00:00:46.320 like you're actually going to learn a life skill or more

00:00:50.640 that will make you more effective.

00:00:53.660 But before we do that,

00:00:57.740 would you like to be primed with a simultaneous sip

00:01:00.180 that makes everything better?

00:01:02.060 Of course you would.

00:01:03.340 That's why you're here.

00:01:04.680 Then all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass,

00:01:06.460 a tank or a chalice or a canteen,

00:01:08.140 a jug or a flask,

00:01:09.100 a vessel of any kind.

00:01:11.180 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like,

00:01:13.880 coffee.

00:01:15.580 And join me now

00:01:16.540 for the unparalleled pleasure

00:01:18.940 of the dopamine hit of the day

00:01:20.200 that makes everything better.

00:01:21.980 And yes, that's a whiteboard behind me.

00:01:25.360 Yes, that's how good today is.

00:01:27.820 No cheating.

00:01:28.800 Don't look ahead.

00:01:30.320 And now, go.

00:01:31.280 Oh, yeah.

00:01:36.600 Mm, mm, mm, mm, mm.

00:01:40.180 All right, let's do a little audit of my audience.

00:01:45.780 In the comments,

00:01:47.000 please tell me if you identify as liberal, conservative,

00:01:53.020 or let's say neither or independent,

00:01:56.400 whichever you prefer.

00:01:57.260 So in the comments,

00:01:58.780 I just want to get a sense.

00:02:03.240 Conservatives and independents,

00:02:05.180 libertarians,

00:02:07.240 indies, conservatives.

00:02:10.060 So apparently there is no one who...

00:02:13.260 There are literally no liberal people watching this.

00:02:21.300 Or nobody who wants to label themselves as such.

00:02:25.920 All right?

00:02:28.240 All right.

00:02:29.720 How many of you have voted...

00:02:32.220 have ever voted Democrat?

00:02:35.120 All right, new question.

00:02:36.940 Yes or no?

00:02:37.960 How many of you have ever voted Democrat?

00:02:41.980 A lot of yeses.

00:02:44.440 That's interesting.

00:02:45.660 Because a lot of you said independent,

00:02:47.500 so if I hadn't seen a lot of yeses,

00:02:49.040 I would have been disappointed.

00:02:50.920 Although the number of noes and nevers

00:02:52.600 is kind of impressive.

00:02:53.480 I don't know if that's a good way or a bad way.

00:02:58.120 All right.

00:02:59.440 So that was just a little audit of who I'm talking to here.

00:03:04.040 Now, I tweeted today that it seems to me

00:03:07.260 that if you prefer methods and systems that work,

00:03:12.040 that are known to work,

00:03:14.120 somebody will label you conservative.

00:03:15.780 And I think that's what happened with Trump.

00:03:19.240 I think Trump's philosophy, if you will,

00:03:22.000 is, well, what works?

00:03:24.940 We know what everybody wants, right?

00:03:27.020 We want to be safe and wealthy and happy,

00:03:30.600 educate our kids and have freedom and all that.

00:03:33.120 So everybody's very clear about what people want.

00:03:37.020 But, you know, we're less clear about how to get there.

00:03:40.280 I always thought that Trump was all about whatever works,

00:03:43.360 and then people said,

00:03:44.580 well, you must be a conservative.

00:03:46.600 Because they just assumed that if people are doing

00:03:48.760 practical things that might work,

00:03:51.080 they're probably conservatives.

00:03:52.460 And I think he embraced it and just ran with it.

00:03:55.840 But in my case,

00:03:57.460 I don't label myself as conservative

00:03:59.880 or liberal or anything else.

00:04:01.500 I mean, not really.

00:04:03.000 I always say I'm left of Bernie,

00:04:04.720 but that's just to confuse you.

00:04:09.560 I always find it's a compliment

00:04:11.440 when somebody calls me conservative.

00:04:14.520 Although I don't label myself that way.

00:04:17.380 It seems like if somebody calls you conservative,

00:04:19.540 they're saying,

00:04:20.660 you're one of those people

00:04:23.000 who keeps trying to do the things that work traditionally,

00:04:26.060 such as building systems

00:04:28.060 that take into account the competition

00:04:31.020 and human motivation matter.

00:04:35.980 Okay.

00:04:37.580 I'll take that hit.

00:04:41.300 Let's put the Dilbert filter on the news

00:04:43.660 and see if it makes anything look different.

00:04:45.740 Now, the Dilbert filter would be

00:04:48.060 if you've worked in a large organization of any kind,

00:04:52.160 there's some things that you see over and over again

00:04:54.300 that you wouldn't necessarily think are true

00:04:57.200 unless you actually experienced it.

00:05:00.140 There's some things you think,

00:05:01.460 well, is that just something people make comics about?

00:05:06.200 Or do those things really actually happen

00:05:08.660 in big organizations?

00:05:10.480 And I'm here to tell you,

00:05:12.300 yes, those things really happen in big organizations.

00:05:14.580 And you can't believe any of it

00:05:15.800 unless you experience it.

00:05:17.260 That's why the Dilbert comic

00:05:18.560 was a phenomenon in the 90s more than now.

00:05:21.500 because I kind of outed the fact

00:05:25.600 that people were having incredibly weird experiences,

00:05:29.580 but nobody seemed to be talking about it publicly

00:05:32.380 because I think people were under the impression

00:05:34.940 it was just them.

00:05:36.260 Well, this must be just my job.

00:05:38.560 This can't possibly be happening all over the place.

00:05:41.940 And then what I outed was the fact that,

00:05:44.320 yeah, it's happening all over the place.

00:05:46.080 As soon as you put a bunch of people together

00:05:47.800 in any kind of an organization,

00:05:50.480 there are certain things that always emerge.

00:05:53.100 And it's just really reliable.

00:05:54.880 If that were not the case,

00:05:56.080 the Dilbert comic would not have taken off.

00:05:58.520 It was people saying,

00:05:59.460 oh, yeah, that's me.

00:06:00.580 Nobody talks about that, but that's happening.

00:06:02.920 So let's put that same filter on the news.

00:06:07.600 One big part of the news today

00:06:09.140 says that the Russians are promising

00:06:11.800 humanitarian corridors

00:06:13.740 so that the noncombatants could escape safely

00:06:18.780 out of the combat areas.

00:06:21.720 But the news is that they're being attacked

00:06:24.480 and or the roads are mined.

00:06:26.780 And so that the Russians are being cynical

00:06:28.820 and they just say you can let your civilians out.

00:06:33.660 But really what they want to do

00:06:34.860 is kill the women and children too

00:06:36.900 because killing the women and children

00:06:39.100 will get them like an extra quick victory.

00:06:43.740 So that's what the news says.

00:06:46.820 Here's the Dilbert filter on the news.

00:06:50.640 What are the odds that the people

00:06:52.220 who are attacking the roads

00:06:53.800 and or mining them

00:06:55.140 are in perfect communication

00:06:57.240 with the people who say,

00:06:59.120 yeah, you can have your safety corridor?

00:07:02.240 Do you think there's only like,

00:07:05.100 you know, one combatant unit

00:07:07.600 or do you think that they all

00:07:10.260 have good communication?

00:07:11.420 Do you really think that the people

00:07:13.680 who said, yes,

00:07:14.560 you can have this corridor to escape,

00:07:17.160 do you think they knew anything

00:07:18.240 about the corridor

00:07:19.060 that they had just authorized?

00:07:20.720 Do you think they even knew

00:07:21.880 if their own forces

00:07:22.900 were going to attack it?

00:07:24.500 Do you think they knew

00:07:25.460 if it had been mined?

00:07:27.360 Maybe.

00:07:28.500 Maybe.

00:07:29.000 You can't rule out

00:07:30.240 that the news is right.

00:07:32.700 It's possible.

00:07:35.280 But hold this thought

00:07:36.760 because I'm going to come back to it, right?

00:07:38.360 Now, in my opinion,

00:07:40.580 I would say that this kind of news

00:07:42.740 is notable, wouldn't you?

00:07:45.920 It's notable when somebody says,

00:07:48.220 I'll let you out

00:07:48.940 and then kills you instead.

00:07:50.780 That's very notable.

00:07:52.380 Remember the word notable

00:07:53.620 because I'm going to tell you later

00:07:56.540 that the fact that that sounds notable

00:07:59.020 means it's probably not true.

00:08:03.120 We'll get to that.

00:08:04.720 How about another one?

00:08:05.460 Here's the Dilbert filter

00:08:07.560 on what caused the war.

00:08:11.920 Now, there are a million ways

00:08:13.240 to slice this and say

00:08:14.300 what caused the war.

00:08:16.380 Is it because Putin is a megalomaniac?

00:08:20.300 Maybe he's declining

00:08:21.360 and wants to leave a legacy.

00:08:24.320 Maybe just Russians always conquer

00:08:26.300 anything they can conquer

00:08:27.440 if they think it's easy.

00:08:29.080 So there are a hundred ways

00:08:30.080 to say what caused the war.

00:08:31.560 Maybe NATO expansion,

00:08:33.680 you know, poked the bear too many times

00:08:36.500 and had to respond, right?

00:08:38.600 How many ways could you come up with

00:08:40.500 to describe what caused the war?

00:08:44.180 A lot, right?

00:08:45.640 You know that Russians will have

00:08:47.080 their interpretation,

00:08:49.320 Europe probably will have their own, etc.

00:08:52.140 But let me put the Dilbert filter on it.

00:08:55.400 And this is based on the fact

00:08:56.740 that there's this one head of the military

00:08:59.000 in Russia who is known to be,

00:09:02.660 let's say, a favored star of Putin.

00:09:08.120 Also, I believe he had no military experience

00:09:10.900 before being head of the military.

00:09:13.200 I'll need a confirmation of that,

00:09:14.580 but I don't think he'd been in the military.

00:09:16.820 And apparently he's reportedly a big suck-up.

00:09:21.480 So he's somebody who's going to tell Putin

00:09:23.360 what Putin wants to hear.

00:09:24.540 Apparently, one of the things he told Putin

00:09:28.020 was that he had upgraded the military.

00:09:32.000 And that military,

00:09:33.340 that Russian military,

00:09:35.220 wow.

00:09:37.060 First rate.

00:09:39.140 So here's what I imagine is the conversation

00:09:41.820 that could have happened

00:09:42.860 in any large organization

00:09:45.540 where there are bosses and underlings.

00:09:47.580 And it's starting to look like

00:09:50.520 this might be the entire reason

00:09:52.540 that Ukraine and Russia are at war.

00:09:56.340 And I'm quite serious about this.

00:09:58.900 This is based on the Dilbert filter

00:10:00.800 because a Dilbert way of operating

00:10:03.400 is just universal.

00:10:05.200 That's why Dilbert is well-known.

00:10:08.380 Here's how I think it went.

00:10:10.620 I'm going to say the boss,

00:10:12.580 you could substitute Putin in this,

00:10:14.420 and when I say underling,

00:10:15.980 you could substitute Sergei Shoigu,

00:10:21.280 who's the head of their defense.

00:10:24.360 And the boss says to his subordinate,

00:10:27.440 he says,

00:10:27.980 hypothetically,

00:10:29.720 could the Russian military,

00:10:31.440 you told me you modernized,

00:10:33.300 conquer Ukraine?

00:10:35.140 And then the underling says,

00:10:37.220 two days, tops.

00:10:40.000 And that's exactly why

00:10:41.460 some say you should give me a medal

00:10:43.260 and maybe a raise.

00:10:45.300 Not only have I modernized

00:10:46.960 the military

00:10:48.760 in ways which are hard for you to confirm,

00:10:52.280 but that military

00:10:53.920 is the finest military

00:10:55.320 in all the world.

00:10:56.480 When I took over the job,

00:10:58.580 not so good.

00:10:59.760 Not so good, honestly.

00:11:01.400 The guy you executed just before me,

00:11:03.820 I think he did a terrible job.

00:11:05.620 But not me.

00:11:06.940 With the limited budget

00:11:08.260 that you've given me

00:11:09.160 and the limited time to implement it,

00:11:11.500 I have completely turned around

00:11:13.640 and modernized the Russian military.

00:11:15.840 So much so that nobody would dare

00:11:19.260 get into an actual war with us.

00:11:22.280 You know, I wish,

00:11:23.800 I wish they would.

00:11:25.200 I kind of wish they would.

00:11:26.960 Because if anybody got in a war with us,

00:11:30.040 my modernized new military

00:11:31.840 that I did for you,

00:11:33.260 Mr. Putin,

00:11:34.380 we would wipe them out.

00:11:35.760 So thank goodness,

00:11:37.540 thank goodness

00:11:38.180 we'll never be in an actual shooting war.

00:11:40.200 But you know what?

00:11:42.060 I think it would be good for the country

00:11:44.640 to show that

00:11:45.420 the person you put in charge

00:11:47.500 of modernizing the military

00:11:48.840 did a great job.

00:11:51.380 It would be great for morale

00:11:52.380 in the country.

00:11:53.800 I think it would send the message

00:11:55.080 to the rest of the world as well.

00:11:56.320 So, I don't know,

00:11:58.480 another medal, I'm thinking.

00:12:00.800 Something in public.

00:12:02.640 Possibly a small raise to...

00:12:05.460 Or bonus.

00:12:06.540 Whatever you like.

00:12:07.860 Could be crypto, I don't care.

00:12:09.600 You know, real estate.

00:12:11.540 A dacha in the country.

00:12:12.680 Anything.

00:12:13.500 Anything.

00:12:13.920 I'm not even suggesting it.

00:12:16.460 I'm just saying this.

00:12:17.220 Some are saying,

00:12:18.520 some people are saying

00:12:19.500 that the way I've modernized

00:12:20.820 that military,

00:12:22.460 wow,

00:12:22.800 it would be almost

00:12:24.820 a crime

00:12:27.120 to not recognize

00:12:28.660 that sort of thing

00:12:29.700 given the benefit

00:12:30.600 to the rest of the country.

00:12:32.260 Not even...

00:12:32.680 I'm not even thinking of me.

00:12:34.320 It's we.

00:12:35.840 It's we.

00:12:36.780 Not me.

00:12:39.000 And then Putin says,

00:12:40.640 really?

00:12:41.780 You've modernized

00:12:42.780 the military that much?

00:12:45.260 And his general says,

00:12:46.700 yeah, I did.

00:12:48.000 And he says,

00:12:49.600 well, if you can conquer Ukraine

00:12:51.140 in two days,

00:12:51.980 go do that.

00:12:55.280 And then his general says,

00:12:57.380 what?

00:13:00.640 Yeah, you heard me.

00:13:02.020 Go conquer Ukraine

00:13:03.280 in two days.

00:13:04.020 You just told me

00:13:04.680 you could do that.

00:13:06.120 Yeah, yeah.

00:13:08.340 Well, yes.

00:13:09.660 Well, that's true.

00:13:10.840 In some ways,

00:13:11.640 you could say

00:13:12.120 that I did say that.

00:13:13.860 But,

00:13:14.760 in other ways,

00:13:16.260 you could say

00:13:17.000 that diplomacy

00:13:17.660 is another tool of war.

00:13:19.980 And, no,

00:13:20.720 you just told me

00:13:21.340 you could conquer Ukraine

00:13:22.420 in two days.

00:13:23.860 Conquer Ukraine

00:13:24.680 in two days

00:13:25.560 or I'm going to

00:13:26.500 cut off your testicles

00:13:27.700 and feed them to you

00:13:29.220 in front of your wife.

00:13:32.100 What?

00:13:33.240 Yeah,

00:13:33.760 you just told me

00:13:34.660 you could conquer Ukraine

00:13:35.760 in two days.

00:13:36.720 Go fucking do it.

00:13:38.120 And then a war started.

00:13:43.140 That's what I think happened.

00:13:45.420 And every day,

00:13:47.060 this general is probably

00:13:48.120 going back to Putin,

00:13:50.420 holding his balls

00:13:51.580 with one hand

00:13:53.260 and waving his other hand

00:13:55.320 trying to explain

00:13:56.180 why things aren't going well.

00:13:57.460 Well, you know,

00:13:59.500 if it hadn't been

00:14:00.880 for your head

00:14:02.120 of propaganda

00:14:02.840 getting ahead of things,

00:14:04.340 we would have

00:14:05.040 surprised them.

00:14:06.780 But you had to use your,

00:14:08.140 you know,

00:14:08.580 as President Xi,

00:14:10.000 if President Xi

00:14:11.140 had not asked you

00:14:12.880 to delay

00:14:13.400 for the Olympics,

00:14:14.260 I swear,

00:14:15.380 we would be

00:14:16.060 all over Kiev

00:14:17.280 by now.

00:14:18.260 All over it.

00:14:19.740 But then,

00:14:20.340 that delay,

00:14:21.880 gosh,

00:14:22.300 that, you know,

00:14:23.000 nobody could have

00:14:23.720 figured that

00:14:24.200 into the planning

00:14:24.940 when I built

00:14:26.040 this modernized military.

00:14:28.420 It was really

00:14:28.980 more of a blitzkrieg model.

00:14:30.900 Blitzkrieg.

00:14:32.040 I expected it to be

00:14:32.960 in and out

00:14:33.460 two days.

00:14:34.800 But when you made me

00:14:35.660 wait a week,

00:14:36.440 you know,

00:14:36.940 everybody got prepared.

00:14:38.960 Everybody was prepared.

00:14:41.580 Well,

00:14:42.080 was that on me?

00:14:43.200 I told you

00:14:43.960 I was ready to go.

00:14:44.880 We were ready to go.

00:14:46.240 One week,

00:14:46.820 we were ready to go.

00:14:47.540 You made us wait

00:14:48.180 six weeks.

00:14:50.100 Six weeks.

00:14:50.940 Everybody had time

00:14:51.680 to get new weapons.

00:14:53.720 You basically,

00:14:54.380 not you,

00:14:54.940 I'm not blaming you,

00:14:56.280 boss.

00:14:56.940 No,

00:14:57.780 Xi.

00:14:58.720 President Xi.

00:15:00.180 You know,

00:15:00.700 we are the victims here.

00:15:01.920 You and I,

00:15:03.040 we are the victims.

00:15:04.480 Our military would be

00:15:06.120 so done by now

00:15:07.360 if not for President Xi.

00:15:09.060 But sometimes

00:15:10.160 you got to do

00:15:10.580 what you got to do.

00:15:12.280 So that's what I think

00:15:13.480 caused World War III.

00:15:17.240 Speaking of horrible things,

00:15:19.580 Blaze Media is reporting.

00:15:21.720 They did a FOIA request,

00:15:23.260 I guess.

00:15:23.560 And they revealed

00:15:25.120 that HHS,

00:15:27.520 Health and Human Services,

00:15:28.700 so our government,

00:15:30.520 purchased all kinds

00:15:31.580 of advertising

00:15:32.240 from the major networks

00:15:33.520 about the vaccinations.

00:15:36.680 So ABC,

00:15:37.480 CBS,

00:15:37.920 and NBC,

00:15:38.660 as well as cable TV,

00:15:40.280 Fox News,

00:15:40.940 CNN,

00:15:41.500 MSNBC,

00:15:42.400 Legacy Media,

00:15:43.680 New York Post,

00:15:44.440 LA Times,

00:15:45.000 Washington Post,

00:15:45.900 blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,

00:15:46.480 BuzzFeed,

00:15:47.180 Max,

00:15:47.600 NewsFax.

00:15:48.300 So the government

00:15:50.220 bought advertising

00:15:51.260 on news shows

00:15:53.660 to,

00:15:55.120 or news networks,

00:15:56.440 to tell you,

00:15:58.800 the public,

00:15:59.340 that you should get vaccinated.

00:16:03.260 They use your own money

00:16:04.740 to tell you what to do.

00:16:08.340 Well, I guess that's

00:16:08.980 what governments do.

00:16:10.080 They use your own money

00:16:11.020 to tell you what to do.

00:16:12.260 So that part's

00:16:13.040 not surprising.

00:16:13.640 But when you were

00:16:15.800 watching these news networks,

00:16:17.660 did you think

00:16:18.160 you were getting

00:16:18.620 something like,

00:16:19.860 oh, I don't know,

00:16:21.660 the news?

00:16:23.220 Because I don't think

00:16:24.660 you can really say

00:16:25.800 you got the news.

00:16:28.420 I think that

00:16:29.740 if somebody is paying you

00:16:31.760 to say positive things,

00:16:33.580 you're probably not

00:16:34.940 going to say positive things

00:16:36.420 on the commercial

00:16:37.880 that they paid for.

00:16:40.020 I mean,

00:16:40.320 that part would be

00:16:41.040 recorded, of course.

00:16:41.900 And then give

00:16:43.620 a news segment

00:16:44.300 saying, you know,

00:16:45.200 these guys are

00:16:45.760 a bunch of liars

00:16:46.460 and crooks.

00:16:47.760 Because how much

00:16:48.660 more additional

00:16:49.900 advertising dollars

00:16:51.480 are you going to get

00:16:52.340 if you say

00:16:54.000 that your advertiser

00:16:54.900 is a crook?

00:16:57.180 None.

00:16:58.340 So can you trust

00:16:59.300 anything that

00:16:59.980 the major news networks

00:17:01.020 told you about

00:17:01.820 vaccinations?

00:17:05.420 Now, I think

00:17:06.280 Fox News did,

00:17:08.320 at least the opinion people,

00:17:10.540 were at least

00:17:11.180 skeptical about

00:17:12.280 the vaccinations.

00:17:13.680 They expressed

00:17:14.460 a level of skepticism.

00:17:18.040 Not everybody,

00:17:18.840 but some of the hosts.

00:17:22.320 So, you know,

00:17:23.220 you can see that

00:17:24.260 some of the opinion people

00:17:25.260 were not affected

00:17:25.980 by the advertising.

00:17:27.900 Where were they?

00:17:29.080 Would they have

00:17:29.680 gone harder?

00:17:30.260 Did they stop short

00:17:32.820 of where their

00:17:33.520 actual opinions were?

00:17:34.680 We don't know.

00:17:36.060 We will never know.

00:17:37.860 They may have

00:17:38.300 stopped short

00:17:38.900 of where their

00:17:39.920 actual opinions were.

00:17:42.180 Well,

00:17:43.020 but none of that

00:17:44.760 surprises you,

00:17:45.480 does it?

00:17:46.360 The Biden administration

00:17:47.440 announced they're going

00:17:48.180 to do some kind

00:17:48.780 of executive order

00:17:49.720 looking into

00:17:50.560 how to regulate

00:17:52.520 cryptocurrency.

00:17:53.380 Well, that's all good news,

00:17:56.520 isn't it?

00:17:59.640 That's all great news.

00:18:03.640 Because if there were

00:18:05.280 ever two things

00:18:06.120 that you wanted

00:18:06.680 to put together

00:18:07.560 to make synergy,

00:18:09.780 you know,

00:18:11.260 people like crypto

00:18:12.900 and they like governments.

00:18:15.540 So if you like cryptocurrencies

00:18:16.780 and you like governments,

00:18:18.400 you know what would be great?

00:18:19.420 You put those two things

00:18:21.320 together.

00:18:22.740 Sure.

00:18:23.600 Some people say

00:18:24.440 cryptocurrency is

00:18:25.760 the antidote

00:18:27.280 to government.

00:18:29.640 But it won't be soon.

00:18:31.140 As soon as they get

00:18:32.920 their regulations on it.

00:18:35.140 Now,

00:18:36.240 honestly,

00:18:37.300 I'm not smart enough

00:18:38.480 to predict

00:18:39.220 where this even goes.

00:18:41.840 The most,

00:18:42.280 the most,

00:18:43.680 let's see,

00:18:44.620 scary future

00:18:45.500 is that

00:18:46.620 the government

00:18:47.220 gets control

00:18:47.980 of everything.

00:18:49.080 Privacy,

00:18:49.760 crypto,

00:18:50.880 just everything.

00:18:51.960 You know,

00:18:52.160 your bank.

00:18:53.420 And then

00:18:54.040 they have full control

00:18:55.500 and they can just

00:18:56.200 push a button

00:18:56.960 and turn your life

00:18:57.820 on or off

00:18:58.460 if you don't cooperate.

00:19:00.780 That feels like

00:19:02.140 reasonably

00:19:03.520 possible

00:19:06.320 or probable

00:19:07.180 enough

00:19:07.560 that you should

00:19:07.980 worry about it.

00:19:09.700 But it's not

00:19:10.460 the only way

00:19:11.020 things could go.

00:19:12.420 I've often

00:19:13.300 predicted

00:19:14.400 that

00:19:16.460 the worst

00:19:17.500 place

00:19:17.860 for society

00:19:18.520 to be

00:19:19.100 is

00:19:20.460 semi

00:19:21.460 lack

00:19:22.980 of privacy.

00:19:25.200 The two

00:19:25.900 worst,

00:19:26.800 the worst

00:19:27.520 place it could

00:19:28.120 be

00:19:28.400 would be

00:19:29.300 everybody

00:19:29.760 has complete

00:19:30.440 privacy

00:19:30.920 because then

00:19:32.180 you could be

00:19:32.600 a criminal.

00:19:34.400 Complete privacy

00:19:35.160 means you can

00:19:35.740 just do anything

00:19:36.500 and you can

00:19:36.820 get away with it.

00:19:38.020 So complete

00:19:38.580 privacy is

00:19:39.240 what you don't

00:19:39.600 want.

00:19:40.320 You want

00:19:40.600 some kind

00:19:41.020 of moderated

00:19:42.340 middle ground

00:19:43.960 privacy

00:19:45.060 you think.

00:19:46.580 But what

00:19:46.960 happens when

00:19:47.660 the citizens

00:19:48.580 lose their

00:19:49.260 privacy

00:19:49.700 but the

00:19:50.900 people in

00:19:51.300 the government

00:19:51.740 have not?

00:19:53.660 Well that's

00:19:54.020 the worst

00:19:54.380 case.

00:19:55.520 So we're

00:19:56.140 very close

00:19:56.600 to the worst

00:19:57.080 case scenario

00:19:57.700 where the

00:19:58.720 citizens have

00:19:59.480 no privacy

00:20:00.140 about anything

00:20:00.940 but the

00:20:01.900 people in

00:20:02.320 charge still

00:20:03.060 keep their

00:20:03.720 privacy.

00:20:04.860 So if they

00:20:05.360 punish you

00:20:05.960 for no

00:20:06.360 reason

00:20:06.760 it's hard

00:20:08.220 to prove

00:20:08.660 because they've

00:20:09.500 got their

00:20:09.800 privacy.

00:20:10.800 You don't.

00:20:11.300 So if

00:20:13.940 you got to

00:20:14.300 the point

00:20:14.580 where the

00:20:15.120 people in

00:20:15.880 charge had

00:20:16.760 no privacy

00:20:17.480 this by the

00:20:18.960 way is

00:20:19.240 something that

00:20:19.800 Naval

00:20:20.100 noodled about

00:20:21.880 years ago.

00:20:22.780 He called

00:20:23.080 it the

00:20:23.480 GoPro

00:20:24.500 presidency

00:20:25.220 where the

00:20:26.560 president would

00:20:27.060 have to wear

00:20:27.440 a GoPro

00:20:27.860 camera all

00:20:28.620 the time

00:20:29.060 maybe except

00:20:30.240 using the

00:20:30.720 bathroom or

00:20:31.220 something.

00:20:32.140 So you

00:20:32.380 just see

00:20:32.980 everything.

00:20:34.180 Now that's

00:20:34.760 a visual

00:20:36.480 way to

00:20:37.640 express a

00:20:38.320 bigger idea

00:20:39.140 which is

00:20:39.680 greater

00:20:40.460 transparency

00:20:41.100 of the

00:20:41.500 leaders.

00:20:42.780 It takes

00:20:43.180 away

00:20:43.380 blackmail.

00:20:45.220 It takes

00:20:45.460 away a

00:20:46.640 lot of

00:20:48.000 things.

00:20:49.780 Anyway,

00:20:50.900 I do not

00:20:51.820 predict either

00:20:53.140 doom or

00:20:54.040 glory.

00:20:57.460 Uh-oh.

00:20:59.500 Kind of a

00:21:00.400 problem.

00:21:01.580 Oh,

00:21:02.220 God.

00:21:03.840 Okay.

00:21:05.140 All right.

00:21:05.700 I'll deal

00:21:06.160 with that

00:21:06.400 later.

00:21:06.660 Rasmussen

00:21:09.840 did a

00:21:10.180 poll on

00:21:10.600 election

00:21:11.020 integrity

00:21:11.660 issues.

00:21:13.440 And it

00:21:13.960 looks like

00:21:14.360 election

00:21:15.000 integrity is

00:21:15.640 going to be

00:21:15.900 a pretty

00:21:16.160 big issue

00:21:16.780 in the

00:21:17.100 upcoming

00:21:17.380 elections

00:21:17.860 in the

00:21:18.160 U.S.

00:21:20.200 So more

00:21:21.020 than half

00:21:21.500 of voters

00:21:22.720 believe

00:21:24.040 cheating

00:21:24.460 affected the

00:21:25.260 2020

00:21:25.660 election.

00:21:27.500 So 52%

00:21:28.760 of them,

00:21:29.180 I think,

00:21:29.460 said that

00:21:30.500 it's very

00:21:31.200 or somewhat

00:21:32.080 likely that

00:21:32.700 cheating

00:21:32.980 affected the

00:21:33.680 2020

00:21:34.060 election.

00:21:35.900 And

00:21:36.100 surprisingly,

00:21:36.660 19%

00:21:38.360 of Democrats

00:21:40.520 agreed with

00:21:42.740 the notion

00:21:43.260 that

00:21:43.900 cheating

00:21:45.260 affected the

00:21:45.980 election.

00:21:47.840 Now,

00:21:48.440 are you

00:21:48.640 surprised?

00:21:49.860 How do you

00:21:50.460 explain that

00:21:50.960 19% of

00:21:51.940 Democrats

00:21:52.580 think cheating

00:21:53.700 affected the

00:21:54.420 election?

00:21:56.560 Now,

00:21:56.820 remember,

00:21:57.180 I'm talking

00:21:57.500 about

00:21:57.800 affected the

00:21:58.580 election,

00:22:00.940 but in

00:22:03.680 which way?

00:22:04.340 Yes,

00:22:04.680 somebody got

00:22:05.220 the right

00:22:05.480 answer.

00:22:06.480 Everybody

00:22:07.000 thinks that

00:22:07.640 the other

00:22:07.960 team cheated.

00:22:09.540 So I'm

00:22:09.920 surprised that

00:22:10.600 the Democrat

00:22:11.080 number isn't

00:22:11.800 actually higher,

00:22:13.300 and my

00:22:14.100 guess is that

00:22:14.820 it would be

00:22:15.520 higher,

00:22:16.480 except that

00:22:17.160 the Democrats

00:22:17.800 know they

00:22:18.260 don't want to

00:22:18.720 say the

00:22:19.000 election was

00:22:19.560 stolen.

00:22:21.080 19% of

00:22:22.120 Democrats are

00:22:22.780 just answering

00:22:23.420 the question

00:22:23.960 straight.

00:22:25.320 Well,

00:22:25.500 do you think

00:22:25.820 there was

00:22:26.080 cheating that

00:22:26.600 affected it?

00:22:27.340 19% said,

00:22:28.360 yeah,

00:22:28.600 probably.

00:22:28.920 I mean,

00:22:29.700 probably both

00:22:30.320 ways.

00:22:31.700 Probably both

00:22:32.340 ways,

00:22:32.700 right?

00:22:33.900 The most

00:22:34.640 reasonable

00:22:36.320 assumption

00:22:36.920 about this

00:22:38.360 big,

00:22:38.940 complicated

00:22:39.380 system where

00:22:40.180 different states

00:22:40.900 are running

00:22:41.300 it would be,

00:22:42.560 yeah,

00:22:42.980 probably,

00:22:44.160 and probably

00:22:45.060 in both

00:22:45.500 directions.

00:22:46.080 We just

00:22:46.360 don't really

00:22:46.800 know the

00:22:47.120 extent of

00:22:47.580 it or

00:22:47.780 what.

00:22:48.420 Just no

00:22:48.820 way to

00:22:49.060 know.

00:22:49.240 Now,

00:22:51.080 what if

00:22:52.100 Trump had

00:22:55.020 won in

00:22:55.840 2020?

00:22:56.940 would the

00:22:59.480 same number

00:23:00.180 of people

00:23:00.580 on each

00:23:01.000 side say

00:23:02.380 they thought

00:23:02.780 the election

00:23:03.260 had been

00:23:03.760 stolen?

00:23:05.360 The

00:23:05.600 percentages

00:23:06.100 might be

00:23:06.560 the same,

00:23:07.060 but it

00:23:07.260 would flip

00:23:07.980 parties.

00:23:09.560 So,

00:23:09.860 basically,

00:23:10.440 I think

00:23:10.700 all we're

00:23:11.000 finding out

00:23:11.640 is that if

00:23:12.620 the other

00:23:13.000 side wins,

00:23:13.700 you're pretty

00:23:14.020 sure that

00:23:14.440 their cheating

00:23:14.920 was involved.

00:23:16.900 Does anybody

00:23:17.320 disagree with

00:23:18.080 that?

00:23:19.740 That independent

00:23:20.680 of whether or

00:23:21.520 not any

00:23:22.040 cheating ever

00:23:22.620 happens,

00:23:23.920 if the other

00:23:24.600 team unexpectedly

00:23:25.620 wins,

00:23:26.940 you're pretty

00:23:27.640 sure there

00:23:28.140 was some

00:23:28.460 cheating going

00:23:29.020 on there.

00:23:29.860 Pretty sure.

00:23:30.680 It doesn't

00:23:30.920 matter which

00:23:31.300 way it

00:23:31.540 goes.

00:23:34.200 All right.

00:23:37.240 Here's an

00:23:38.000 interesting

00:23:39.000 answer.

00:23:43.220 Well,

00:23:43.780 no,

00:23:43.980 that wasn't

00:23:44.300 interesting.

00:23:45.200 Never mind.

00:23:47.660 But let's

00:23:48.320 talk about

00:23:48.700 something that

00:23:49.220 is.

00:23:52.560 Is

00:23:53.040 photo ID

00:23:53.720 a reasonable

00:23:54.320 measure?

00:23:55.000 That was

00:23:55.380 another question,

00:23:56.340 Rasmussen.

00:23:57.740 74% of the

00:23:59.180 public thinks

00:23:59.900 that having a

00:24:00.540 photo ID is

00:24:01.440 a reasonable

00:24:02.100 request to

00:24:04.680 vote.

00:24:05.860 That would

00:24:06.260 leave, let's

00:24:07.120 see, how

00:24:07.380 many, or

00:24:08.660 it would be

00:24:09.100 against that.

00:24:09.720 Let's see.

00:24:10.360 You take

00:24:10.980 100 and

00:24:12.580 you subtract

00:24:13.100 the 74.

00:24:15.080 So somewhere

00:24:15.760 around a

00:24:16.260 quarter, oh,

00:24:17.800 a quarter,

00:24:18.900 25%.

00:24:20.180 yes.

00:24:21.680 So 25%-ish

00:24:24.040 of people

00:24:26.060 think that

00:24:28.020 people should

00:24:28.800 vote whether

00:24:29.800 they're citizens

00:24:30.500 or have ID or

00:24:31.640 nothing, I

00:24:32.420 guess.

00:24:33.880 All right.

00:24:34.940 Now, let me

00:24:36.420 ask you this.

00:24:38.260 Don't you think

00:24:39.080 we should have

00:24:39.520 some kind of

00:24:40.040 rule of thumb,

00:24:41.060 like it should

00:24:41.500 have a name so

00:24:42.360 everybody can

00:24:42.900 refer to it,

00:24:43.980 when there's

00:24:44.540 something that

00:24:45.040 over, let's

00:24:45.700 say 70% of

00:24:46.780 the public

00:24:47.200 supports, and

00:24:49.280 they can't

00:24:49.700 make it into

00:24:50.220 law.

00:24:51.980 What do you

00:24:53.360 think of

00:24:53.800 something,

00:24:54.800 anything, it

00:24:55.400 doesn't matter

00:24:55.740 what the topic

00:24:56.300 is, it doesn't

00:24:56.980 have to be

00:24:57.420 about elections,

00:24:58.720 but any

00:24:59.560 topic in the

00:25:01.120 United States

00:25:01.860 where over 70%

00:25:03.640 of the people

00:25:04.180 support it, and

00:25:05.960 it isn't being

00:25:06.560 made into a

00:25:07.220 law.

00:25:09.580 How do you

00:25:10.620 explain that?

00:25:12.500 Doesn't it

00:25:13.140 have to be

00:25:13.660 corruption?

00:25:14.000 Now, the

00:25:16.080 exception would

00:25:16.840 be, the

00:25:18.000 exception would

00:25:18.700 be if your,

00:25:20.360 let's say,

00:25:21.960 credible leader

00:25:23.120 said, look, I

00:25:24.460 realize that most

00:25:25.300 of you want

00:25:25.820 this, but I'm

00:25:27.120 going to give

00:25:27.520 you a good

00:25:27.960 reason why you

00:25:29.800 don't want

00:25:30.240 this.

00:25:31.840 I'm not really

00:25:32.560 seeing that.

00:25:34.340 I'm just seeing

00:25:35.100 the usual, you

00:25:35.900 know, lies

00:25:36.460 coming from

00:25:37.680 both sides,

00:25:38.760 usually.

00:25:39.900 So it's either

00:25:40.720 cognitive dissonance

00:25:41.820 or corruption,

00:25:42.920 and I don't know

00:25:43.460 how you tell

00:25:43.880 the difference.

00:25:45.980 It's a tough

00:25:46.700 one, because

00:25:48.040 we don't know

00:25:48.700 how much

00:25:50.100 corruption is

00:25:50.720 involved, so

00:25:52.220 that's just

00:25:52.720 always a

00:25:53.060 question mark.

00:25:53.740 It looks like

00:25:54.460 cognitive dissonance,

00:25:55.860 but it could be

00:25:56.460 just corruption,

00:25:57.320 or it could be

00:25:57.920 both.

00:25:58.860 It could be

00:25:59.200 both.

00:25:59.560 Actually, the

00:26:00.000 most likely is

00:26:00.640 both.

00:26:02.560 All right, are

00:26:03.440 you watching the

00:26:04.040 little tweet war

00:26:04.860 between

00:26:05.320 Representative

00:26:06.200 Eric Swalwell

00:26:07.140 and Richard

00:26:08.300 Grinnell,

00:26:09.760 ambassador?

00:26:12.220 Ex-ambassador,

00:26:13.120 I guess, to

00:26:14.120 Germany.

00:26:15.340 So I guess

00:26:15.960 there's a

00:26:16.360 photo.

00:26:18.640 Let's do this

00:26:19.720 in the order

00:26:20.120 it happened.

00:26:21.040 So Swalwell

00:26:21.760 tweets this.

00:26:23.020 He says,

00:26:23.500 I'm old enough

00:26:24.080 to remember

00:26:24.620 when Richard

00:26:25.700 Grinnell

00:26:26.220 palled around

00:26:27.320 with Nazis

00:26:28.420 while serving

00:26:30.220 as our

00:26:30.680 ambassador in

00:26:31.420 Germany.

00:26:31.740 Now, what

00:26:33.740 did I tell

00:26:34.220 you about

00:26:34.820 notable

00:26:36.040 news?

00:26:38.460 Things that

00:26:39.040 really make

00:26:39.500 you go,

00:26:40.100 what?

00:26:41.580 What?

00:26:42.660 Are you

00:26:43.220 telling me

00:26:43.860 that the

00:26:44.800 American

00:26:45.320 ambassador

00:26:45.960 to Germany

00:26:47.340 was palling

00:26:49.280 around with

00:26:49.960 a Nazi

00:26:50.580 while he

00:26:52.020 was an

00:26:52.420 ambassador

00:26:52.840 to Germany?

00:26:54.440 Wow!

00:26:55.160 Wow!

00:26:57.360 Do you

00:26:58.080 think it's

00:26:58.500 true?

00:26:59.020 Of course

00:27:02.120 not.

00:27:03.100 Of course

00:27:03.560 not.

00:27:04.200 Do I even

00:27:04.700 have to tell

00:27:05.160 you why

00:27:05.540 it's not

00:27:05.900 true?

00:27:06.760 No.

00:27:07.720 You should

00:27:08.200 know it's

00:27:08.620 not true

00:27:09.240 just by

00:27:10.360 listening to

00:27:11.000 it.

00:27:12.320 Just listen

00:27:12.860 to it.

00:27:14.500 Just say

00:27:15.000 it in your

00:27:15.380 head and

00:27:15.980 hear how it

00:27:16.540 sounds.

00:27:16.880 Of course

00:27:17.300 it's not

00:27:17.760 true.

00:27:18.000 And as

00:27:18.800 Richard

00:27:19.080 Grinnell

00:27:19.600 points out

00:27:20.300 in his

00:27:21.560 response on

00:27:22.400 Twitter,

00:27:22.740 he said

00:27:23.060 to Swalwell,

00:27:24.820 did Fang

00:27:25.380 Fang tell

00:27:25.920 you that?

00:27:26.580 Because she

00:27:27.320 got you

00:27:27.760 again.

00:27:28.120 It's illegal

00:27:28.940 to be a

00:27:29.480 Nazi in

00:27:30.020 Germany.

00:27:31.780 You can't

00:27:32.460 even be

00:27:32.820 one.

00:27:34.220 The person

00:27:34.980 he was

00:27:35.220 pictured with,

00:27:35.900 so he's

00:27:36.180 in a photo

00:27:36.940 posing with

00:27:37.660 somebody,

00:27:38.340 is a

00:27:38.740 member of

00:27:39.140 the Bundestag

00:27:40.100 representing

00:27:41.100 the AFD

00:27:42.160 and he

00:27:43.000 came to

00:27:43.360 the 4th

00:27:43.780 of July

00:27:44.120 party like

00:27:44.760 every member

00:27:45.460 of the

00:27:45.740 Bundestag.

00:27:47.160 But I

00:27:47.660 guess this

00:27:48.060 guy had

00:27:48.480 done

00:27:48.660 something

00:27:49.020 provocative

00:27:49.560 years ago

00:27:50.640 but it

00:27:52.840 was more

00:27:53.160 of a

00:27:53.480 prank or

00:27:53.940 something.

00:27:54.460 But

00:27:54.580 whatever

00:27:54.860 it was,

00:27:56.220 Swalwell

00:27:56.660 turned him

00:27:57.700 that guy

00:27:58.200 into a

00:27:58.580 Nazi so

00:27:59.120 they could

00:27:59.420 try to

00:27:59.760 turn Grinnell

00:28:00.640 into a

00:28:01.040 Nazi.

00:28:01.860 But you

00:28:02.240 should have

00:28:02.680 seen that

00:28:03.160 one coming.

00:28:05.480 As soon as

00:28:06.440 Swalwell made

00:28:07.300 that claim,

00:28:08.100 you should

00:28:08.400 have said,

00:28:09.400 American

00:28:09.940 ambassador to

00:28:11.100 Germany,

00:28:12.560 publicly

00:28:13.040 hanging around

00:28:13.860 with a

00:28:14.280 Nazi in

00:28:15.940 Germany.

00:28:17.320 Probably

00:28:17.860 not.

00:28:18.400 Probably

00:28:19.220 not.

00:28:23.360 I guess

00:28:24.920 four of the

00:28:25.380 biggest accounting

00:28:25.980 firms have

00:28:26.760 announced that

00:28:27.340 they won't

00:28:27.640 do business

00:28:28.140 in Russia

00:28:28.580 anymore.

00:28:30.000 And so

00:28:30.340 I ask you

00:28:31.080 what's going

00:28:31.500 to happen

00:28:31.760 to Russia.

00:28:33.280 And here

00:28:33.700 is my

00:28:34.280 multi-point

00:28:35.240 prediction for

00:28:36.240 the Russian

00:28:36.620 economy.

00:28:37.260 You ready?

00:28:38.960 Predictions

00:28:39.480 for the

00:28:40.220 Russian

00:28:40.540 economy.

00:28:42.300 Now,

00:28:43.320 can anybody

00:28:44.100 predict

00:28:44.760 economics?

00:28:47.960 Not

00:28:48.480 really.

00:28:49.940 So when I

00:28:50.720 give you a

00:28:51.100 prediction,

00:28:51.580 the way you

00:28:51.920 should see it

00:28:52.380 is,

00:28:52.940 well,

00:28:53.260 this is one

00:28:53.720 way it

00:28:54.040 could go.

00:28:54.420 But nobody

00:28:55.680 can really

00:28:56.200 predict economics.

00:28:57.640 It's kind of

00:28:58.000 a crazy thing

00:28:58.680 to do.

00:28:59.840 So use your

00:29:00.800 judgment.

00:29:01.800 I'll just

00:29:02.240 describe one,

00:29:03.900 I think,

00:29:04.600 probable future.

00:29:06.840 But it's only

00:29:07.840 one of them.

00:29:08.740 One possible

00:29:09.480 future.

00:29:10.560 So number

00:29:11.080 one, you see

00:29:11.580 the accounting

00:29:12.060 firms are

00:29:12.600 pulling out.

00:29:13.100 What happens

00:29:13.540 when credible

00:29:14.520 accounting firms

00:29:15.460 are no longer

00:29:17.160 willing to say

00:29:18.040 that your firm

00:29:19.140 is doing its

00:29:19.880 accounting

00:29:20.740 credibly?

00:29:21.640 Well,

00:29:23.320 companies

00:29:23.760 basically buy

00:29:24.940 the credibility

00:29:25.800 of the

00:29:26.380 accounting firm,

00:29:27.920 even though

00:29:28.360 they often

00:29:28.900 lie to the

00:29:29.440 accounting firm.

00:29:30.180 So the

00:29:30.540 accounting firm

00:29:31.160 often does

00:29:31.840 nothing but

00:29:33.000 the books.

00:29:33.820 They don't

00:29:34.080 really know

00:29:34.500 the truth

00:29:34.940 of the

00:29:35.200 company.

00:29:35.980 But it

00:29:36.320 gives sort

00:29:36.780 of a

00:29:37.080 credibility

00:29:37.520 to a

00:29:38.280 company

00:29:38.580 that at

00:29:39.560 least the

00:29:40.360 accounting

00:29:40.720 firm is

00:29:41.260 honest.

00:29:42.320 That's the

00:29:42.720 one thing

00:29:43.100 you can

00:29:43.380 depend on.

00:29:43.960 They may

00:29:44.240 have bad

00:29:44.640 data from

00:29:45.280 the company,

00:29:46.240 but at

00:29:46.580 least they're

00:29:47.220 not lying

00:29:47.860 because they

00:29:48.380 have a

00:29:48.740 reputation

00:29:49.380 to uphold.

00:29:50.060 So when

00:29:50.960 the credible

00:29:51.540 ones leave,

00:29:53.060 you're left

00:29:53.600 saying,

00:29:54.240 should I

00:29:54.380 do business

00:29:54.920 with this

00:29:55.380 company,

00:29:56.540 or can I

00:29:57.680 even believe

00:29:58.260 their books?

00:30:00.480 So it

00:30:01.120 turns every

00:30:02.200 company that

00:30:02.820 was a little

00:30:03.280 bit credible

00:30:03.880 in Russia

00:30:04.420 into not

00:30:05.900 credible at

00:30:06.520 all.

00:30:07.880 And remember,

00:30:08.460 economies run

00:30:09.120 on psychology,

00:30:10.000 so that's a

00:30:10.460 big deal.

00:30:11.580 If you can't

00:30:12.180 trust the

00:30:12.760 person you're

00:30:13.200 working with,

00:30:13.700 you don't.

00:30:14.680 You work

00:30:15.240 with somebody

00:30:15.660 else you

00:30:16.020 can trust,

00:30:16.820 if you have

00:30:17.240 options,

00:30:17.720 and we do.

00:30:19.160 Then what

00:30:19.920 about the

00:30:20.300 insurance

00:30:20.800 companies who

00:30:21.860 are looking

00:30:22.240 at Russia

00:30:22.640 and saying,

00:30:23.060 you know,

00:30:23.800 we could

00:30:24.640 insure you

00:30:25.300 if things

00:30:25.880 stayed exactly

00:30:26.720 the way they

00:30:27.240 are, but

00:30:28.320 we can't

00:30:28.800 tell if things

00:30:29.380 will get worse

00:30:30.060 in terms of

00:30:30.740 more sanctions.

00:30:32.300 So we're not

00:30:32.820 even going to

00:30:33.320 touch the

00:30:33.820 things that

00:30:35.240 have been

00:30:35.500 carved out

00:30:36.100 from the

00:30:36.460 sanctions.

00:30:37.860 We can't

00:30:38.540 do the

00:30:38.820 things that

00:30:39.220 have sanctions

00:30:39.800 on them,

00:30:40.580 but we can't

00:30:41.480 even do the

00:30:41.940 things that

00:30:42.300 don't have

00:30:42.740 sanctions on

00:30:43.440 them because

00:30:43.780 they might

00:30:44.220 have a

00:30:44.520 sanction

00:30:44.800 someday.

00:30:46.180 And we're

00:30:46.400 the insurance

00:30:46.980 company,

00:30:47.860 and we work

00:30:48.580 on risk,

00:30:50.560 so we

00:30:50.940 can't get

00:30:51.280 near that.

00:30:52.100 So if you

00:30:52.600 can't get

00:30:53.040 credible

00:30:53.440 accounting,

00:30:53.900 and you

00:30:55.380 can't get

00:30:55.780 insurance for

00:30:57.120 ordinary business

00:30:58.160 activities,

00:30:59.380 you're in

00:31:00.200 real trouble,

00:31:01.780 and that's

00:31:02.140 where they

00:31:02.440 are.

00:31:04.740 Then you've

00:31:05.540 got the

00:31:06.960 Russian banks

00:31:07.680 and the

00:31:08.740 credit card

00:31:09.400 system is

00:31:10.440 going to use

00:31:11.000 China as

00:31:11.580 their bank,

00:31:12.240 basically,

00:31:12.820 for the

00:31:13.080 processing.

00:31:13.520 So all

00:31:14.400 the Chinese

00:31:15.080 banks,

00:31:17.140 and therefore

00:31:17.500 the government

00:31:18.040 of China,

00:31:19.360 will have

00:31:19.780 all of this

00:31:20.280 private information

00:31:21.140 about Russian

00:31:22.240 spending.

00:31:23.660 That can't

00:31:24.440 be good,

00:31:25.080 because persuasion

00:31:26.820 depends on

00:31:27.940 knowing what

00:31:28.840 people are

00:31:29.320 doing.

00:31:30.440 If you know

00:31:30.960 what people

00:31:31.340 are doing,

00:31:31.920 you can

00:31:32.260 persuade them.

00:31:33.860 So that's

00:31:34.220 a real

00:31:35.020 security

00:31:36.900 problem for

00:31:37.600 Russia,

00:31:39.340 to have

00:31:39.560 China know

00:31:40.040 that much

00:31:40.440 about their

00:31:40.860 citizens.

00:31:41.340 number four,

00:31:44.180 uncertainty

00:31:44.660 will cause

00:31:45.440 domestic

00:31:45.880 spending to

00:31:46.600 drop,

00:31:47.540 unless inflation

00:31:48.440 causes them

00:31:49.160 to overspend

00:31:49.940 and inflation

00:31:50.880 gets you.

00:31:51.880 But if you

00:31:52.600 don't know

00:31:53.020 what's going

00:31:53.380 to happen

00:31:53.600 tomorrow,

00:31:54.180 you're less

00:31:54.520 likely to buy

00:31:55.300 stuff,

00:31:55.760 because you

00:31:56.000 think,

00:31:56.340 well,

00:31:56.480 I better

00:31:56.680 save my

00:31:57.080 money for

00:31:57.660 buying food,

00:31:59.100 because I'll

00:31:59.400 need all of

00:31:59.840 it for that.

00:32:01.100 So if

00:32:01.580 domestic

00:32:01.960 spending drops,

00:32:02.920 the economy

00:32:03.380 starts to

00:32:03.920 plunge.

00:32:05.120 We already

00:32:05.520 see the

00:32:06.940 net worth

00:32:07.780 of companies

00:32:08.680 in Russia

00:32:09.160 is basically

00:32:09.900 zero.

00:32:11.340 Because you

00:32:12.020 couldn't

00:32:12.220 even buy

00:32:12.720 one.

00:32:15.340 Get rid

00:32:16.080 of the

00:32:16.540 bad

00:32:18.740 trolls

00:32:19.100 who are

00:32:19.680 doing a

00:32:20.020 bad job.

00:32:21.480 Then

00:32:21.980 you've got

00:32:23.980 Western

00:32:25.100 buyers of

00:32:25.780 Russian

00:32:26.120 energy,

00:32:27.980 the people

00:32:28.460 who we

00:32:29.180 think have

00:32:30.000 to buy

00:32:30.340 Russian

00:32:30.680 energy.

00:32:31.840 We don't

00:32:32.700 really have

00:32:33.300 to buy

00:32:33.600 Russian

00:32:33.940 energy,

00:32:34.860 because it

00:32:36.280 turns out

00:32:36.700 that the

00:32:37.040 rich countries

00:32:37.660 aren't going

00:32:38.080 to run

00:32:38.360 out of

00:32:38.660 energy.

00:32:39.160 They're

00:32:39.300 going to

00:32:39.500 pay more.

00:32:41.340 It's the

00:32:41.800 poor

00:32:42.020 countries

00:32:42.600 that can't

00:32:44.860 pay more,

00:32:46.000 and there

00:32:46.340 won't be

00:32:46.640 enough if

00:32:47.280 there's a

00:32:47.620 limit.

00:32:48.360 So the

00:32:48.780 poor

00:32:48.960 countries

00:32:49.360 just won't

00:32:49.860 get any.

00:32:50.960 Am I

00:32:51.300 wrong about

00:32:51.740 that?

00:32:52.020 As long

00:32:53.520 as the

00:32:54.140 price of

00:32:54.740 energy is

00:32:55.780 very flexible,

00:33:00.080 the rich

00:33:01.160 countries like

00:33:01.820 the United

00:33:02.180 States will

00:33:02.700 get as much

00:33:03.220 oil as they

00:33:03.720 want.

00:33:04.020 We'll just

00:33:04.340 pay twice

00:33:04.840 as much.

00:33:05.340 and the

00:33:06.940 poor

00:33:07.120 countries

00:33:07.520 will just

00:33:07.880 starve.

00:33:09.980 So I

00:33:10.480 think that's

00:33:10.840 what's

00:33:11.060 happening.

00:33:12.480 But I

00:33:13.820 do think

00:33:14.320 that the

00:33:15.300 Western

00:33:16.260 countries

00:33:16.880 and Europe

00:33:17.800 will find

00:33:19.160 ways around

00:33:22.040 Russian oil,

00:33:23.760 because they

00:33:25.040 can.

00:33:25.880 There's lots

00:33:26.500 of things you

00:33:27.000 wouldn't do

00:33:27.420 unless you

00:33:27.780 had to,

00:33:29.060 but depending

00:33:30.420 on Russian

00:33:30.900 oil is a

00:33:31.420 little like

00:33:31.740 this.

00:33:32.980 Have you

00:33:33.280 ever worked

00:33:33.720 in a

00:33:33.960 company where

00:33:34.540 you had an

00:33:35.000 indispensable

00:33:35.680 employee,

00:33:37.320 and then

00:33:38.600 they quit,

00:33:40.680 and then you

00:33:41.440 found out,

00:33:42.080 well, it turns

00:33:42.680 out they

00:33:42.980 weren't that

00:33:43.360 indispensable.

00:33:44.300 It was just

00:33:44.680 in your mind.

00:33:46.220 How many of

00:33:48.080 you have had

00:33:48.460 that experience?

00:33:49.800 Or you're in

00:33:50.500 a relationship,

00:33:51.980 and you think

00:33:52.420 it's sort of

00:33:53.060 indispensable to

00:33:54.020 your life,

00:33:55.100 like it's got

00:33:55.720 some problems,

00:33:56.800 but it's

00:33:57.660 indispensable.

00:33:58.360 There's no way

00:33:58.740 I can change

00:33:59.440 it.

00:34:00.160 And then

00:34:00.460 something happens

00:34:01.140 and it goes

00:34:01.600 away.

00:34:03.020 And you're

00:34:03.620 sad for a

00:34:04.460 while,

00:34:04.880 and then

00:34:05.180 a year

00:34:05.600 later,

00:34:06.320 you're like,

00:34:06.800 well, that

00:34:07.160 wasn't as

00:34:07.580 indispensable as

00:34:08.440 I thought.

00:34:09.820 It turns out

00:34:10.640 very few

00:34:11.220 things are

00:34:11.640 indispensable,

00:34:13.120 but we

00:34:13.520 think a lot

00:34:14.120 of things

00:34:14.460 are.

00:34:15.580 I think

00:34:16.160 Russian oil

00:34:16.840 is not

00:34:17.560 that indispensable

00:34:18.680 to Europe.

00:34:21.140 They could

00:34:21.760 find a way,

00:34:22.360 it's just

00:34:22.740 kind of hard,

00:34:23.660 but they

00:34:23.980 could do

00:34:24.240 it.

00:34:25.420 And that

00:34:26.520 would,

00:34:26.800 of course,

00:34:27.140 make the

00:34:27.840 energy from

00:34:28.960 Russia

00:34:29.480 basically captured

00:34:31.420 by China.

00:34:32.040 So China

00:34:32.540 would be

00:34:32.840 the main

00:34:33.220 buyer and

00:34:33.900 that would

00:34:34.220 give them

00:34:34.580 all kinds

00:34:34.980 of power

00:34:35.360 over Russia

00:34:35.940 because China

00:34:37.400 eventually won't

00:34:39.540 need that power

00:34:40.360 and they could

00:34:41.800 get it from

00:34:42.200 other places

00:34:42.740 too.

00:34:43.540 They're building

00:34:44.120 nuclear power

00:34:44.780 plants like

00:34:45.300 crazy and I

00:34:46.680 assume looking

00:34:48.040 for sources in

00:34:48.860 other places.

00:34:51.600 So it's

00:34:53.200 terrible to have

00:34:53.880 one big customer

00:34:54.840 because that big

00:34:55.480 customer owns you.

00:34:56.180 Have you ever

00:34:56.840 heard this

00:34:57.240 saying?

00:34:58.240 If you borrow

00:34:58.780 a million dollars

00:34:59.680 from a bank,

00:35:01.420 the bank owns

00:35:02.180 you.

00:35:02.860 Let's say that a

00:35:03.680 million dollars is

00:35:04.360 a lot in your

00:35:05.020 case.

00:35:05.740 If you borrow a

00:35:06.540 million from the

00:35:07.140 bank, the bank

00:35:07.740 owns you because

00:35:08.720 if you don't pay

00:35:09.300 it back, they

00:35:09.820 can cause a lot

00:35:10.820 of trouble for

00:35:11.360 your future

00:35:11.760 life.

00:35:12.820 But if you

00:35:14.060 borrow $10

00:35:14.940 billion from a

00:35:16.200 bank, you

00:35:17.640 own the bank

00:35:18.420 because they

00:35:19.680 can't afford

00:35:20.200 you to bail

00:35:23.640 out on that

00:35:24.240 loan.

00:35:25.480 It's bad

00:35:26.100 for you, but

00:35:26.680 it's way worse

00:35:27.240 for them.

00:35:27.700 They can't

00:35:28.000 lose that $10

00:35:28.960 billion.

00:35:30.620 So when

00:35:33.120 China becomes

00:35:33.980 the biggest

00:35:34.460 customer of

00:35:35.520 Russia, China

00:35:36.980 will effectively

00:35:37.740 own Russia in

00:35:38.760 the same way

00:35:39.280 that you

00:35:40.160 could own

00:35:40.520 the bank by

00:35:41.200 borrowing too

00:35:41.760 much.

00:35:44.640 Russia's going

00:35:45.340 to have

00:35:45.560 inability to

00:35:46.320 get new

00:35:46.660 parts, inability

00:35:47.440 to get new

00:35:48.020 technology, so

00:35:49.180 eventually you

00:35:49.800 would expect

00:35:50.180 the efficiency

00:35:50.860 of all Russian

00:35:52.080 industry to

00:35:52.820 disintegrate.

00:35:54.260 If you can't

00:35:55.160 get parts,

00:35:56.100 and you

00:35:56.340 can't get

00:35:56.940 new technology,

00:36:00.020 stuff's going

00:36:00.640 to rot.

00:36:01.720 It's just

00:36:02.000 going to fall

00:36:02.380 apart over

00:36:03.000 time.

00:36:03.980 Look at

00:36:04.380 Venezuela.

00:36:05.380 We're down

00:36:05.860 there looking

00:36:06.320 at their

00:36:06.620 oil, but

00:36:07.560 you look at

00:36:07.940 their oil

00:36:08.460 industry, and

00:36:09.240 because of the

00:36:10.180 sanctions, they

00:36:10.900 can't even

00:36:11.300 produce oil.

00:36:12.820 Venezuela barely

00:36:14.000 can produce oil,

00:36:15.620 and has tons

00:36:16.240 of it, but the

00:36:17.500 sanctions make it

00:36:18.280 almost impossible

00:36:18.940 to operate the

00:36:19.680 equipment.

00:36:20.000 So that's

00:36:21.300 where Russia's

00:36:21.800 heading.

00:36:23.040 Then, I'm

00:36:24.420 not even done,

00:36:25.240 it's getting

00:36:25.780 worse.

00:36:27.360 Then, the

00:36:28.260 Russian military

00:36:28.940 spending will

00:36:30.100 exceed the

00:36:30.600 economy's ability

00:36:31.580 to support it,

00:36:33.220 because it'll

00:36:33.620 be bogged

00:36:34.120 down in

00:36:35.320 Ukraine, they'll

00:36:36.560 have to keep

00:36:37.300 their military

00:36:37.840 big, and

00:36:39.040 just like

00:36:39.780 Reagan destroyed

00:36:40.680 the Soviet

00:36:41.120 Union, once

00:36:43.300 again, Putin

00:36:44.120 will destroy

00:36:45.000 Russia, because

00:36:46.200 the military will

00:36:47.020 suck up whatever

00:36:47.960 is left of the

00:36:48.760 economy that

00:36:49.580 will be shrinking

00:36:50.180 until the

00:36:51.860 whole thing just

00:36:52.440 collapses, just

00:36:53.460 like the Soviet

00:36:54.040 Union.

00:36:55.460 And, at that

00:36:56.740 point, China,

00:36:58.160 which basically

00:36:58.860 would own

00:36:59.560 Russia by

00:37:01.260 then, would

00:37:02.780 install a

00:37:03.540 puppet regime.

00:37:05.160 Yes, I'm

00:37:05.720 saying it.

00:37:06.660 The next leader

00:37:07.580 of Russia is

00:37:09.240 likely to be a

00:37:10.100 Chinese puppet.

00:37:13.500 And, because

00:37:15.220 by then, Russia's

00:37:17.460 economy would

00:37:18.220 be so feeble

00:37:19.240 that Chinese

00:37:20.640 money could

00:37:21.280 bribe anybody

00:37:22.060 in Russia.

00:37:24.300 Do you see

00:37:25.000 how that works?

00:37:26.420 As the Russian

00:37:27.320 economy shrinks

00:37:28.260 and shrinks and

00:37:28.860 shrinks, and

00:37:30.200 China gets

00:37:30.860 bigger and

00:37:32.480 bigger itself,

00:37:33.520 but also is

00:37:34.200 more and more

00:37:34.740 of their only

00:37:35.420 customer, China's

00:37:37.580 money, and

00:37:38.720 then their

00:37:39.140 friendly connections

00:37:40.620 to them, allows

00:37:42.360 China to directly

00:37:43.760 bribe literally

00:37:45.360 everybody that

00:37:46.200 matters in

00:37:47.820 Russia over

00:37:48.480 time.

00:37:49.440 And then they

00:37:50.160 just install a

00:37:50.940 puppet.

00:37:52.820 So, after

00:37:53.700 Putin, it's a

00:37:54.720 puppet.

00:37:55.500 It's a Chinese

00:37:56.080 puppet.

00:37:56.720 But it would be a

00:37:57.440 puppet over a

00:37:58.000 country that is

00:37:59.260 barely there.

00:38:00.620 I don't even know

00:38:01.420 if the United

00:38:01.880 States will be

00:38:02.500 less safe.

00:38:03.800 It's hard to

00:38:04.620 say.

00:38:04.840 And then Russia

00:38:08.420 itself would

00:38:09.100 become irrelevant

00:38:09.780 over time, because

00:38:11.260 the only thing

00:38:11.980 they had going

00:38:12.480 for them was

00:38:13.340 their military

00:38:14.200 that China would

00:38:14.940 largely control at

00:38:16.100 that point, and

00:38:17.220 their energy, which

00:38:18.120 was dirty energy

00:38:19.140 and green energy

00:38:20.760 and other

00:38:21.200 suppliers, would

00:38:22.020 be filling the

00:38:22.900 gap by then.

00:38:24.140 So Russia would

00:38:24.980 continue to just

00:38:27.080 become irrelevant.

00:38:29.980 And then Putin

00:38:30.800 would be remembered

00:38:31.660 as the second

00:38:32.480 Russian leader to

00:38:33.420 destroy Russia.

00:38:34.840 by prioritizing

00:38:36.200 the military over

00:38:37.120 the economy.

00:38:39.240 The destruction

00:38:40.240 of the Soviet

00:38:40.840 Union was the

00:38:41.920 prioritization of

00:38:42.920 the military over

00:38:43.840 the economy.

00:38:45.680 Putin's doing

00:38:46.260 the same thing.

00:38:47.820 And when he

00:38:48.520 does the same

00:38:49.180 thing, everybody

00:38:50.700 who is a

00:38:51.340 historian is going

00:38:52.180 to say, well,

00:38:52.800 you should have

00:38:53.160 seen that coming.

00:38:54.620 If you prioritize

00:38:55.520 your military over

00:38:56.880 your economy, you're

00:38:59.560 screwed.

00:39:00.660 Did China do

00:39:01.580 that?

00:39:02.640 Did you see

00:39:03.360 China prioritize

00:39:04.460 their military

00:39:05.240 over their

00:39:05.980 economy?

00:39:07.240 I don't think

00:39:08.200 he did, did

00:39:08.800 you?

00:39:09.860 I feel like

00:39:11.000 China actually

00:39:11.620 has a smallish

00:39:12.580 military compared

00:39:14.060 to what they

00:39:14.640 could do if

00:39:16.060 they wanted to

00:39:16.640 go, you know,

00:39:17.460 just full

00:39:18.380 military, right?

00:39:20.640 So it seems to

00:39:21.860 me that China

00:39:23.140 got it exactly

00:39:23.980 right.

00:39:24.920 It seems like

00:39:25.820 Europe is getting

00:39:26.520 it exactly right,

00:39:27.740 relying on U.S.

00:39:29.140 firepower to a

00:39:30.280 large extent.

00:39:30.840 But it looks

00:39:32.060 like Russia is

00:39:32.740 making the

00:39:33.180 same damn

00:39:33.640 mistake that

00:39:35.460 the Soviet

00:39:35.880 Union made,

00:39:36.740 prioritizing

00:39:37.360 military because

00:39:38.880 we must conquer

00:39:40.640 countries and

00:39:41.420 strength is what

00:39:42.140 matters.

00:39:43.460 Looks like that's

00:39:44.420 what happened.

00:39:45.460 And so Putin is

00:39:46.400 looking at, you

00:39:47.340 know, the worst

00:39:47.820 possible outcome

00:39:48.700 for him, I

00:39:49.580 think.

00:39:50.840 Now, I guess

00:39:51.720 Putin has

00:39:52.160 offered four

00:39:53.720 conditions for

00:39:54.820 ending the war.

00:39:55.480 Do we think

00:39:57.440 he's serious?

00:39:59.560 Help me with

00:40:00.380 the four

00:40:00.700 conditions, if

00:40:01.560 I, because I'm

00:40:02.260 going by memory.

00:40:04.040 I think we

00:40:05.040 had that to

00:40:06.360 Ukraine and

00:40:07.940 everybody else, I

00:40:08.660 guess, has to

00:40:09.160 recognize that

00:40:09.800 Crimea is part of

00:40:10.700 Russia, which

00:40:12.240 it effectively is.

00:40:14.080 We have to

00:40:15.000 agree that the

00:40:16.260 independent regions,

00:40:17.880 the two independent

00:40:18.520 regions are

00:40:19.340 independent, I

00:40:20.100 guess.

00:40:20.940 And then

00:40:21.660 Ukraine has to

00:40:24.120 put into its

00:40:24.780 constitution, no

00:40:26.780 NATO involvement

00:40:27.580 ever, and

00:40:30.040 was there a, oh,

00:40:32.180 and then the

00:40:32.880 Ukrainian army had

00:40:34.420 to stop fighting.

00:40:36.520 And Putin says,

00:40:37.760 if you just do

00:40:38.340 those four things,

00:40:39.400 which on paper

00:40:40.120 sound almost

00:40:40.980 reasonable, almost,

00:40:43.520 if you just do

00:40:44.260 those four things,

00:40:45.860 we'll stop

00:40:46.520 fighting immediately.

00:40:48.620 Now, I am

00:40:51.180 demilitarized, I

00:40:51.980 guess, but that

00:40:53.660 doesn't sound

00:40:54.160 serious at all

00:40:55.280 to me.

00:40:55.840 Does it sound

00:40:56.300 serious to you?

00:40:57.700 Because, first

00:40:58.460 of all, all he

00:41:00.040 has to do is say

00:41:00.780 the Ukrainians are

00:41:01.800 continuing to fire

00:41:02.960 at us.

00:41:04.240 That's it.

00:41:05.220 It's exactly the

00:41:06.100 same thing he says

00:41:06.800 all the time.

00:41:07.580 His most common

00:41:08.560 lie is you're

00:41:09.980 shooting at us

00:41:10.600 first.

00:41:11.700 Why would that

00:41:12.400 change?

00:41:13.480 It worked every

00:41:14.500 time he's used

00:41:15.160 it.

00:41:15.900 If there's

00:41:16.300 something that

00:41:16.740 works every time

00:41:17.740 you use it,

00:41:19.080 why would you

00:41:20.040 expect them to

00:41:20.680 stop using it?

00:41:21.540 So, if one

00:41:22.820 of the conditions

00:41:23.400 is we, Russia,

00:41:25.500 have to claim that

00:41:26.440 the other side

00:41:27.120 stopped shooting

00:41:27.860 at us, that's

00:41:28.820 never going to

00:41:29.340 happen.

00:41:30.100 How long would

00:41:30.720 it take Ukraine

00:41:31.460 to change their

00:41:32.500 constitution while

00:41:33.900 their country is

00:41:34.600 at war?

00:41:36.380 Probably can't be

00:41:37.240 done.

00:41:38.100 So, he's asking

00:41:38.740 for something that

00:41:39.460 sounds easy.

00:41:40.640 Hey, just put that

00:41:41.360 NATO thing in there.

00:41:43.000 Probably can't be

00:41:43.720 done.

00:41:44.100 Like, physically,

00:41:45.500 timing-wise, just

00:41:46.380 couldn't be done in

00:41:47.420 the time that it

00:41:48.040 would affect the

00:41:48.800 war.

00:41:49.000 And then the

00:41:51.740 giving recognition

00:41:53.620 to Crimea and

00:41:54.720 the other thing

00:41:55.180 really don't

00:41:55.740 change much.

00:41:57.040 Those two just

00:41:57.700 sound like...

00:41:58.760 I think those

00:41:59.540 are the fake

00:42:00.060 ones.

00:42:01.200 Because you say

00:42:02.060 to yourself,

00:42:02.560 wait a minute,

00:42:04.140 Russia's asking

00:42:04.820 for two things

00:42:05.900 that you really

00:42:07.300 understand.

00:42:08.560 They want control

00:42:09.380 over those regions.

00:42:10.880 And then they

00:42:11.280 could credibly

00:42:13.740 say, all we

00:42:15.920 did was denazify

00:42:18.280 it.

00:42:19.000 I mean, that's

00:42:19.460 not what they

00:42:19.920 were doing.

00:42:20.760 But they

00:42:21.260 could credibly

00:42:21.840 say, all we

00:42:22.540 wanted was

00:42:23.000 these regions.

00:42:24.060 And then they

00:42:24.560 would just keep

00:42:25.140 consolidating Ukraine

00:42:26.120 over time, any

00:42:27.060 way they wanted.

00:42:28.200 So, that's a

00:42:30.660 non-starter.

00:42:32.280 All right.

00:42:33.960 Here's my

00:42:34.580 promise to you.

00:42:35.520 I am going to

00:42:36.100 change some of

00:42:37.420 your lives.

00:42:38.480 I'm going to

00:42:38.860 change one

00:42:39.420 person's life in

00:42:41.020 particular.

00:42:42.540 You want to

00:42:43.240 play along?

00:42:44.880 Help me change

00:42:45.620 one person's life

00:42:46.520 in particular.

00:42:47.280 And in so

00:42:48.380 doing, it

00:42:49.820 will help

00:42:50.180 other people

00:42:50.760 in their

00:42:51.660 lives.

00:42:52.340 I was looking

00:42:53.100 through Twitter

00:42:53.540 and I came

00:42:54.000 across a

00:42:54.700 Twitter thread

00:42:55.500 by a gentleman

00:42:56.520 I don't know

00:42:57.040 anything about.

00:42:58.640 He goes by

00:42:59.540 the name

00:42:59.920 Gerwinder.

00:43:03.200 And I'm

00:43:04.700 going to

00:43:05.060 recommend him

00:43:05.720 as your

00:43:06.360 follow.

00:43:09.240 I'm going to

00:43:09.860 tell you one

00:43:10.440 of the things

00:43:11.100 that he put

00:43:11.640 in a 40-point

00:43:13.160 thread.

00:43:13.760 and in

00:43:14.700 his thread

00:43:15.580 he claimed

00:43:16.240 this.

00:43:18.100 He said,

00:43:19.240 in 40

00:43:20.320 tweets, I'll

00:43:21.000 explain 40

00:43:21.820 useful concepts

00:43:22.820 you should

00:43:23.380 know.

00:43:24.300 It'll take you

00:43:24.920 less than

00:43:25.320 seven minutes

00:43:26.020 and he said

00:43:27.340 the value

00:43:27.840 would be

00:43:28.240 potentially a

00:43:29.160 lifetime.

00:43:30.360 Do you think

00:43:30.760 he delivered?

00:43:32.300 Now, remember,

00:43:32.980 I don't know

00:43:33.320 anything about

00:43:33.820 him.

00:43:35.860 Right?

00:43:36.340 But do you

00:43:36.740 think he

00:43:37.060 delivered on

00:43:37.640 this claim

00:43:38.160 40 tweets

00:43:39.080 and he would

00:43:40.700 teach you 40

00:43:41.360 useful concepts

00:43:42.260 that basically

00:43:43.020 would have

00:43:43.560 potential change

00:43:44.720 your life

00:43:45.120 for a lifetime?

00:43:47.260 He actually

00:43:48.020 did.

00:43:49.060 He actually

00:43:49.820 delivered it.

00:43:50.920 Now, I'll

00:43:53.060 tell you the

00:43:54.220 actual name to

00:43:55.060 follow in a

00:43:55.660 moment.

00:43:56.520 But I'm not

00:43:57.760 going to read

00:43:58.200 the thread to

00:43:58.720 you.

00:43:59.160 I'm just going

00:43:59.680 to tell you

00:44:00.000 that I looked

00:44:00.500 through it and

00:44:01.060 I said to

00:44:01.460 myself,

00:44:03.680 it does look

00:44:06.840 like this is

00:44:08.380 useful stuff.

00:44:10.240 And I'll give

00:44:10.660 you one example

00:44:11.460 which ties to

00:44:13.460 this.

00:44:14.360 First of all,

00:44:15.020 the individual,

00:44:16.440 if you do a

00:44:17.620 search on

00:44:18.040 Twitter,

00:44:18.960 search for

00:44:19.500 a G-U-R

00:44:21.100 winder,

00:44:22.860 G-U-R-W-I-N-D-E-R,

00:44:26.880 which I will

00:44:27.540 point to with

00:44:29.600 my back

00:44:30.020 scratcher.

00:44:31.540 G-U-R-W-I-N-D-E-R.

00:44:34.060 Or at G-S-B-H-O-G-A-L.

00:44:39.060 All right, so

00:44:40.280 his life we're

00:44:41.620 going to change

00:44:42.200 because we're

00:44:43.380 going to send

00:44:43.780 him a lot of

00:44:44.220 followers.

00:44:45.220 Now the reason

00:44:45.760 I'm sending him

00:44:46.360 a lot of

00:44:46.680 followers is

00:44:48.040 that I look

00:44:48.600 through some

00:44:49.380 of his other

00:44:49.880 tweets and

00:44:50.880 they're actually

00:44:51.460 really good and

00:44:53.460 useful.

00:44:54.180 Here's one

00:44:54.780 example.

00:44:56.180 And I would

00:44:57.020 say that I

00:44:57.760 recognize most

00:44:58.720 of the things he

00:44:59.520 was teaching,

00:45:00.400 but you could

00:45:01.200 get a good

00:45:01.600 idea how good

00:45:02.920 your awareness

00:45:03.540 of the world

00:45:04.080 is by how

00:45:05.220 many of the

00:45:05.680 40 things you've

00:45:06.460 already heard of.

00:45:07.100 If you haven't

00:45:08.440 heard of all

00:45:08.840 40, maybe you

00:45:10.720 should.

00:45:11.680 All right, here's

00:45:12.220 one of the

00:45:12.500 claims.

00:45:12.940 The more

00:45:13.160 notable the

00:45:13.740 data, the

00:45:14.700 more likely it

00:45:15.440 is fake.

00:45:16.380 That's what I

00:45:17.200 introduced early

00:45:18.360 in the live

00:45:18.880 stream.

00:45:19.400 I've talked

00:45:19.760 about this

00:45:20.180 before.

00:45:21.380 Scott Alexander,

00:45:22.620 that's a pen

00:45:23.340 name, not a

00:45:23.880 real person,

00:45:24.940 introduced this

00:45:25.960 the first time I

00:45:26.620 ever saw it.

00:45:28.440 It has to do

00:45:29.200 with the fact

00:45:29.640 that ordinary

00:45:30.780 stuff, it

00:45:31.620 doesn't make

00:45:32.060 news.

00:45:33.160 So something

00:45:33.680 has to be

00:45:34.200 incredible, such

00:45:36.120 as, how

00:45:37.160 about the

00:45:37.720 Russian army

00:45:38.300 will give

00:45:38.780 you a

00:45:39.120 corridor for

00:45:39.940 the women

00:45:40.860 and children

00:45:41.360 to escape,

00:45:42.400 but then

00:45:42.980 they're going

00:45:43.280 to bomb

00:45:43.760 and mine

00:45:44.320 the corridor.

00:45:45.900 That would

00:45:46.660 be pretty

00:45:47.880 shocking if

00:45:49.480 it were

00:45:49.900 true.

00:45:51.240 And so, we

00:45:53.380 don't know if

00:45:53.760 it's true.

00:45:54.380 By the way, it

00:45:54.900 could be true,

00:45:56.180 but it's

00:45:56.560 probably a 90%

00:45:57.440 chance against

00:45:58.120 it because of

00:45:59.840 this rule.

00:46:00.720 If you don't

00:46:01.420 understand that

00:46:02.880 the more

00:46:03.280 fantastic the

00:46:04.260 news, the

00:46:04.800 less likely it's

00:46:05.740 true, you

00:46:07.020 will go

00:46:07.340 through life

00:46:07.820 being just,

00:46:09.040 your head will

00:46:09.820 be on fire

00:46:10.580 because you'll

00:46:14.960 think the

00:46:15.340 news is true.

00:46:16.760 It's not.

00:46:18.340 But because

00:46:19.140 the news likes

00:46:19.860 the click

00:46:20.320 model, whatever

00:46:21.220 gets the most

00:46:21.860 attention gets

00:46:23.080 the most money,

00:46:25.040 that leads to

00:46:26.460 a point where

00:46:27.060 eventually all

00:46:28.000 news will be

00:46:28.680 fake.

00:46:29.720 Not really all

00:46:30.640 news, but you

00:46:31.240 know what I

00:46:31.560 mean.

00:46:31.960 The political

00:46:32.620 news, the

00:46:34.440 political news

00:46:35.380 will trend

00:46:36.620 toward either

00:46:38.020 completely fake

00:46:39.080 or at least

00:46:39.700 out of context.

00:46:41.580 It has to

00:46:42.460 because of

00:46:43.760 these effects.

00:46:45.300 That the

00:46:45.620 more notable

00:46:47.120 stuff is

00:46:47.760 usually fake.

00:46:49.180 That's the

00:46:49.680 stuff that

00:46:50.080 pays.

00:46:51.040 So in the

00:46:51.460 long run,

00:46:52.060 there's just

00:46:52.460 no way to

00:46:52.980 avoid this.

00:46:53.540 In the long

00:46:53.960 run, all the

00:46:54.460 news has to

00:46:54.940 be fake about

00:46:56.240 political stuff.

00:46:57.400 And also maybe

00:46:58.040 scientific stuff

00:46:58.960 if it has a

00:46:59.960 political element

00:47:00.860 to it.

00:47:02.260 How do I

00:47:02.940 know this is

00:47:03.480 true?

00:47:03.840 Well, the

00:47:04.260 gel man amnesia

00:47:05.440 concept confirms

00:47:07.360 that this has

00:47:08.160 already happened.

00:47:09.300 You've heard it

00:47:09.820 a million times,

00:47:10.660 but I'll tell it

00:47:11.160 to you again.

00:47:12.680 Did I spell it

00:47:13.200 wrong?

00:47:14.120 Two L's in

00:47:14.960 gel.

00:47:16.680 I almost

00:47:17.520 looked that up

00:47:18.140 before I put it

00:47:18.760 here.

00:47:19.960 I knew one of

00:47:20.600 you would

00:47:20.920 correct me.

00:47:24.540 Is there two

00:47:25.200 N's?

00:47:27.020 All right.

00:47:28.360 But whatever

00:47:29.000 it is, however

00:47:30.040 many L's and

00:47:30.800 N's there

00:47:31.160 are, the

00:47:32.040 gel man amnesia

00:47:33.080 states that if

00:47:34.560 it's a topic

00:47:35.560 that you're an

00:47:36.300 expert upon,

00:47:37.820 you'll know

00:47:39.000 that the news

00:47:39.500 is fake.

00:47:40.740 For example,

00:47:42.140 I'm an expert

00:47:42.940 on Dilbert

00:47:44.540 things.

00:47:46.160 Dilbert

00:47:46.560 things.

00:47:47.660 And so when

00:47:48.180 I heard that

00:47:48.780 Russia gave a

00:47:49.940 corridor for

00:47:50.700 escape and

00:47:51.940 then bombed

00:47:52.540 it, I said

00:47:53.840 to myself,

00:47:55.040 maybe,

00:47:56.100 maybe, but

00:47:57.120 in all my

00:47:57.740 Dilbert

00:47:58.180 expertise,

00:47:59.000 that sounds

00:47:59.900 exactly like

00:48:00.740 somebody who's

00:48:01.240 just not

00:48:01.660 communicating with

00:48:02.560 their own

00:48:02.900 team, which

00:48:04.200 is just the

00:48:04.740 most normal

00:48:05.240 thing in the

00:48:05.700 world.

00:48:07.280 Doesn't mean

00:48:07.920 I'm right,

00:48:08.920 but it does

00:48:09.420 give you an

00:48:09.840 extra vision

00:48:10.500 into things

00:48:11.140 statistically

00:48:12.380 speaking.

00:48:14.380 And so

00:48:14.800 this would be

00:48:17.600 one of the

00:48:18.100 concepts that

00:48:19.780 you'll see in

00:48:20.200 this 40

00:48:20.780 tweet thing.

00:48:22.120 You can go

00:48:22.580 follow

00:48:23.100 Gurwinder or

00:48:24.800 you can

00:48:25.380 follow,

00:48:27.260 if you follow

00:48:27.880 me, you

00:48:28.440 can see his

00:48:28.980 tweet in

00:48:29.600 my thread.

00:48:31.720 So here's

00:48:32.240 what I'm

00:48:32.500 going to say

00:48:32.780 to you.

00:48:33.180 I believe

00:48:33.620 that he came

00:48:34.940 through with

00:48:35.560 his promise.

00:48:37.340 I believe

00:48:37.700 that in

00:48:38.020 seven minutes,

00:48:39.540 and I'm

00:48:40.020 going to,

00:48:40.620 for the

00:48:40.880 people who

00:48:41.700 subscribe on

00:48:42.700 Locals,

00:48:43.660 you should

00:48:44.540 treat this as

00:48:45.200 just a given.

00:48:46.040 You should go

00:48:46.520 read this.

00:48:48.640 You know,

00:48:49.140 I teach all

00:48:50.040 these micro

00:48:50.640 lessons on

00:48:51.880 the subscription

00:48:53.340 platform on

00:48:54.180 Locals,

00:48:54.520 and what

00:48:55.700 I do is

00:48:56.120 a little

00:48:56.520 video lesson

00:48:57.240 where you

00:48:57.580 can learn

00:48:58.020 a life

00:48:59.000 skill in

00:49:00.040 two or

00:49:00.560 three minutes.

00:49:02.100 But Gurwinder

00:49:02.660 did this

00:49:03.220 with 40

00:49:04.400 things that

00:49:04.900 you can

00:49:05.200 learn in

00:49:05.560 seven minutes,

00:49:06.200 so he

00:49:06.460 topped me,

00:49:07.740 and I

00:49:07.900 thought I

00:49:08.120 was doing

00:49:08.400 pretty good.

00:49:09.620 But he

00:49:10.100 definitely

00:49:10.380 topped me.

00:49:11.440 Now,

00:49:11.720 you've seen

00:49:12.040 long threads,

00:49:14.480 and sometimes

00:49:15.380 they're fun,

00:49:16.580 but this is

00:49:17.500 actually the

00:49:17.920 most useful

00:49:18.440 one I think

00:49:19.600 you'll ever

00:49:19.920 see.

00:49:20.140 The first

00:49:22.260 life we're

00:49:22.720 going to

00:49:22.920 change is

00:49:24.340 the gentleman

00:49:25.540 I've been

00:49:26.900 talking about

00:49:27.540 who deserves

00:49:29.540 more followers,

00:49:30.660 because if you

00:49:31.680 can boost his

00:49:32.400 signal, it

00:49:33.600 will help

00:49:34.140 useful messages

00:49:35.400 such as his

00:49:36.240 last thread get

00:49:37.380 to more people,

00:49:38.140 and you can

00:49:38.460 see from his

00:49:39.040 Twitter feed

00:49:40.480 that he has

00:49:40.920 lots of useful

00:49:41.520 stuff.

00:49:46.320 I also saw

00:49:48.780 some interesting

00:49:49.440 data.

00:49:50.140 that at any

00:49:51.240 given night,

00:49:52.780 fewer than

00:49:53.380 1% of people

00:49:54.660 watch the

00:49:55.220 news, like

00:49:56.820 the TV

00:49:57.760 news, and

00:49:59.100 that if you

00:49:59.640 were to find

00:50:00.060 out how many

00:50:00.540 people in the

00:50:01.860 general public

00:50:02.600 are following

00:50:03.540 any of this

00:50:04.240 stuff, it's

00:50:06.100 almost nobody.

00:50:08.020 We're living

00:50:08.960 in the smallest

00:50:09.660 bubble, all

00:50:11.820 of you and

00:50:12.360 I.

00:50:14.360 Only 25% of

00:50:15.880 people tweet

00:50:16.480 or have

00:50:17.680 Twitter.

00:50:18.540 I think it's

00:50:18.900 25%.

00:50:19.720 And I

00:50:23.420 think people

00:50:23.840 are also

00:50:24.220 realizing that

00:50:24.900 the news

00:50:25.240 isn't real.

00:50:28.360 If there's

00:50:29.020 one thing

00:50:29.400 that would

00:50:29.680 stop you

00:50:30.200 following the

00:50:31.340 news, it's

00:50:32.180 the realization

00:50:32.840 that it's not

00:50:33.620 real anyway.

00:50:34.640 So you have

00:50:35.200 to wonder what

00:50:35.800 your net gain

00:50:37.140 is.

00:50:37.840 Now, in my

00:50:38.440 case, since

00:50:40.520 what I talk

00:50:41.200 about is fake

00:50:42.420 news, for me

00:50:43.800 it's a target-rich

00:50:44.660 environment, but

00:50:46.060 I'm not sure why

00:50:46.780 other people

00:50:47.200 watch the

00:50:47.600 news.

00:50:52.760 How's the

00:50:53.380 news media

00:50:53.880 still in

00:50:54.340 business?

00:50:54.940 I just

00:50:55.440 explained it.

00:50:56.840 The news

00:50:57.280 media is still

00:50:57.960 in business

00:50:58.560 because people

00:50:59.740 really get a

00:51:00.360 dopamine hit

00:51:01.020 reading fake

00:51:01.740 stories.

00:51:02.160 If it gets

00:51:03.720 you going,

00:51:05.000 gives you a

00:51:05.540 little treat,

00:51:06.800 a little reward,

00:51:09.300 you're going to

00:51:09.760 do more of it.

00:51:10.560 So that's all it

00:51:11.040 takes.

00:51:11.680 You've been

00:51:12.340 trained like a

00:51:13.060 chicken working

00:51:13.680 for pellets.

00:51:15.480 That's it.

00:51:16.060 That's the whole

00:51:16.540 news business

00:51:17.180 now is chicken

00:51:18.020 and pellet.

00:51:19.640 Let me explain

00:51:20.560 the entire

00:51:21.160 media model.

00:51:23.720 Chicken,

00:51:25.120 pellet.

00:51:26.200 That's it.

00:51:30.020 Yeah, Tucker

00:51:30.600 has 4 million

00:51:31.600 viewers and

00:51:32.360 land with over

00:51:33.140 300 million.

00:51:34.460 Well, I will

00:51:36.460 quibble with

00:51:37.180 your number.

00:51:39.360 Yes, there

00:51:39.800 are 300,

00:51:40.660 well, 370

00:51:41.560 million or

00:51:42.040 whatever.

00:51:43.680 But if you

00:51:44.780 take out

00:51:45.140 the kids

00:51:45.740 and you

00:51:47.900 take out

00:51:48.300 the people

00:51:48.760 who are

00:51:49.320 like in

00:51:49.760 comas and

00:51:50.640 people who

00:51:51.540 don't speak

00:51:51.960 English,

00:51:52.920 you can

00:51:54.080 whittle that

00:51:54.600 down quite a

00:51:55.260 bit.

00:51:56.920 And then

00:51:57.580 you limit it

00:51:59.280 to people who

00:51:59.960 pay attention

00:52:00.600 and form

00:52:02.380 opinions for

00:52:03.100 the other

00:52:03.440 people.

00:52:04.720 It turns

00:52:05.180 out that I

00:52:06.840 don't think

00:52:07.500 there are

00:52:07.860 more than

00:52:08.500 let's see

00:52:11.720 if you agree

00:52:12.160 with this.

00:52:12.440 I don't

00:52:13.220 think there

00:52:13.640 are more

00:52:14.000 than 100,000

00:52:15.700 people who

00:52:17.540 make all

00:52:18.060 of our

00:52:18.360 decisions.

00:52:20.380 What do

00:52:20.720 you think?

00:52:21.760 Now, it

00:52:22.020 might be a

00:52:22.400 different 100,000

00:52:23.360 depending on

00:52:24.720 what the topic

00:52:25.260 is, but

00:52:25.800 largely the

00:52:26.380 same ones.

00:52:27.300 Yeah, the

00:52:27.600 overlap is

00:52:28.320 mostly the

00:52:29.280 same ones.

00:52:30.600 And here's

00:52:31.080 why.

00:52:32.700 Most people

00:52:33.540 are repeaters

00:52:34.780 of opinions.

00:52:36.220 They're not

00:52:37.020 people who

00:52:37.680 formed an

00:52:38.120 opinion because

00:52:38.640 they did

00:52:38.900 their own

00:52:39.200 work.

00:52:39.540 So that

00:52:41.700 100,000 are

00:52:43.200 all the

00:52:43.620 influential

00:52:44.100 people who

00:52:44.740 did the

00:52:45.120 work.

00:52:46.920 And so

00:52:47.480 the few

00:52:49.220 who did

00:52:49.540 a lot of

00:52:49.920 work,

00:52:51.600 the Glenn

00:52:53.620 Beck's and

00:52:54.180 the Hannity's

00:52:54.980 and the

00:52:55.460 Rachel

00:52:55.960 Maddow's

00:52:56.760 and Chris

00:52:58.240 Hayes and

00:52:58.920 everybody else.

00:52:59.960 So the

00:53:00.280 people who

00:53:00.580 did the

00:53:00.880 deep dives

00:53:01.580 informed the

00:53:03.280 100,000.

00:53:03.920 and then

00:53:05.340 the 100,000

00:53:06.120 become like

00:53:06.780 evangelists in

00:53:07.840 a sense because

00:53:09.020 they're the

00:53:09.260 ones who

00:53:09.520 really, really

00:53:10.020 have opinions.

00:53:11.280 So you go to

00:53:11.840 a party and

00:53:13.440 there are five

00:53:14.020 of you there

00:53:14.640 and four of

00:53:15.820 you never

00:53:16.140 heard of the

00:53:16.560 topic but

00:53:17.160 one of you

00:53:17.680 really paid

00:53:18.460 attention.

00:53:19.800 And that

00:53:20.040 person influences

00:53:20.800 the other

00:53:21.200 four because

00:53:21.660 they're like,

00:53:21.980 well, I

00:53:22.360 heard that

00:53:22.680 one thing.

00:53:24.440 This guy

00:53:25.300 said that

00:53:26.280 one thing

00:53:26.720 that sounded

00:53:27.080 pretty good

00:53:27.480 to me.

00:53:28.200 I didn't

00:53:28.480 hear the

00:53:28.760 other argument

00:53:29.240 but it

00:53:29.700 sounded good.

00:53:30.220 My neighbor

00:53:30.580 said it.

00:53:30.940 So I

00:53:32.280 think it's

00:53:32.660 100,000

00:53:33.260 people that

00:53:33.740 affect

00:53:34.000 everything.

00:53:36.460 Which means

00:53:37.420 if I ever

00:53:38.480 got to a

00:53:38.980 million viewers

00:53:39.680 on this

00:53:40.680 platform,

00:53:42.960 I would

00:53:43.500 probably,

00:53:44.880 you would

00:53:45.200 see my

00:53:45.560 influence just

00:53:46.240 everywhere probably.

00:53:48.300 So it's a

00:53:49.000 good thing I

00:53:49.400 don't.

00:53:51.860 I do have

00:53:52.600 100,000

00:53:53.120 subscribers but

00:53:54.720 not 100,000

00:53:55.500 viewers daily.

00:53:57.260 All right.

00:53:57.800 That's all I've

00:53:58.300 got for now.

00:53:59.780 Would you

00:54:00.380 agree?

00:54:00.940 That I

00:54:02.200 have changed

00:54:03.060 many of

00:54:04.260 yours lives

00:54:05.380 and one

00:54:05.860 person in

00:54:06.320 particular.

00:54:07.580 Have I

00:54:08.260 satisfied my

00:54:09.840 claim?

00:54:10.800 Yes or

00:54:11.220 no?

00:54:13.680 Of course

00:54:14.420 I did.

00:54:15.260 Of course

00:54:15.680 I did.

00:54:18.560 The people

00:54:19.360 on Locals

00:54:19.900 are happier

00:54:20.400 or more

00:54:21.700 generous.

00:54:23.160 The people

00:54:23.960 on YouTube,

00:54:25.660 you should

00:54:27.200 see the

00:54:27.520 difference.

00:54:30.160 Yeah,

00:54:30.300 well okay,

00:54:31.260 some of you

00:54:32.000 on YouTube

00:54:32.380 are being

00:54:33.420 more generous

00:54:33.980 and I

00:54:34.480 appreciate you.

00:54:35.780 I appreciate

00:54:36.520 you every

00:54:37.040 day.

00:54:38.000 All right.

00:54:39.040 So some

00:54:41.620 of you,

00:54:42.080 I hope it

00:54:42.500 changed your

00:54:42.920 life and

00:54:44.200 that's all for

00:54:45.620 today and I'll

00:54:46.860 talk to you

00:54:47.460 on YouTube

00:54:48.560 tomorrow.

00:54:49.300 do

00:54:51.000 well.

00:54:56.780 Yeah,

00:54:56.940 what a

00:55:03.320 butter

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 08, 2022

Episode 1676 Scott Adams： Today I'm Going to Change Some People's Lives. One Person in Particular Who Doesn't See it Coming

Episode Stats

Length

Words per Minute

Word Count

Sentence Count

Misogynist Sentences

Hate Speech Sentences

Summary

Transcript