Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 09, 2022


Episode 1677 Scott Adams： Everything We Are Hearing About Ukraine is Propaganda and Fake News. I'll Help You Sort it Out

Hosted by
Scott Adams
Mentioned
Putin Trump Biden Zelensky Rubio Clint Ehrlich Keith Kellogg Matthew Rosenberg Winston Churchill Victoria Nuland Glenn Greenwald Jack Posobiec King Solomon Ma-ma-ma-la-pa-pa-la Rasmussen Scott
Episode 1676 Scott Adams： Today I'm Going to Change Some People's Lives. One Person in Particular Who Doesn't See it Coming Episode 1678 Scott Adams： How Russia and Ukraine Can Make a Deal

Episode Stats


Length

51 minutes

Words per minute

150.83

Word count

7,805

Sentence count

652

Harmful content

Misogyny

5

sentences flagged

Toxicity

25

sentences flagged

Hate speech

46

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better, and it s called the "Simultaneous Sip" and it's going to happen right now. Join me for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit, the "sip."

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Ma-ma-ma-la-pa-pa-la. 0.99
00:00:03.640 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human existence.
00:00:10.160 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and do you know what you need to participate?
00:00:16.300 Well, you got half of it right here.
00:00:18.600 The other half is the coffee, but because we're a flexible and caring kind of people,
00:00:24.660 you could have a different kind of beverage.
00:00:26.780 That would be 100% acceptable.
00:00:28.880 You might not be as productive, but that's on you.
00:00:33.240 And if you'd like to take it up a notch right now, I think you would,
00:00:36.300 because you're that kind of people.
00:00:37.960 Hold on, hold on.
00:00:40.220 Have you been working out?
00:00:42.560 Why do you look so good?
00:00:44.560 You look a little extra sexy today, if I may say so.
00:00:49.160 And so, if you'd like to take that up a notch too,
00:00:52.200 all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass or a tank or a chalice or a stein,
00:00:54.600 a canteen, chug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.
00:00:58.880 Fill it with your favorite liquid.
00:01:01.300 I like coffee.
00:01:02.420 Join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.
00:01:05.260 The dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better.
00:01:09.340 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and it's going to happen right now.
00:01:12.100 Go.
00:01:12.340 Go.
00:01:12.400 Oh, best one ever.
00:01:21.960 I tell you.
00:01:24.220 I'd like to repeat a statistic that I got today from the Federal Bureau of Statistics
00:01:32.540 that I just made up, which are that since I began doing these live streams, nobody,
00:01:41.360 and I know this will seem unusual, no one has ever died while watching the live stream.
00:01:47.560 Nobody.
00:01:49.200 Right?
00:01:49.680 Now, think about how many hours and how many people have watched these live streams.
00:01:53.880 Nobody.
00:01:54.540 Not a single person has died during the live stream.
00:01:58.100 So, you might be safer right now than anybody has ever been.
00:02:03.900 It's true.
00:02:05.920 All right.
00:02:06.460 Well, here's some things that are going on right now in the world.
00:02:11.180 I'll start with the good news.
00:02:12.420 There's researchers at the Center for Sustainable and Circular Technologies.
00:02:18.980 They came up with a way to basically melt plastic into chemicals that they can reuse and resell.
00:02:27.220 So, now they have a way to possibly, it looks pretty promising, economically recycle plastic.
00:02:34.560 You could recycle it before, but it wasn't economical.
00:02:38.080 It has to do with they can now melt it down without heat.
00:02:41.340 They can do it with a chemical process.
00:02:43.820 Now, is that a big deal?
00:02:45.940 Well, it feels like it could be a big deal.
00:02:48.380 Don't we make a lot of stuff out of plastic?
00:02:51.160 What happens if you can melt down all your plastic and turn it into 3D printer material?
00:02:59.220 Is that coming?
00:03:00.080 I don't know.
00:03:00.880 Could be a lot of things coming.
00:03:02.800 And you know that there's breakthroughs in the CO2 farming, you know, the ability to suck
00:03:08.500 CO2 out of the air and then chemically transform that into some useful things you can sell?
00:03:15.980 You know that there were breakthroughs in fusion this year.
00:03:19.620 And we know that there was an invasion of Russia, which has a lot to do with energy prices.
00:03:23.920 And we know there was a pandemic that caused big differences in how people live and work
00:03:31.480 and commute.
00:03:31.980 All right, here's my question.
00:03:34.840 How many of the things I just mentioned are included in climate models?
00:03:40.080 Do the climate models include in them?
00:03:42.140 Any assumptions about CO2 recycling breakthroughs?
00:03:47.360 I'm sorry, plastic recycling breakthroughs, CO2 farming, sucking it out of the air, fusion
00:03:52.840 breakthroughs, Ukraine war, which will change everything about energy prices.
00:03:59.160 I don't know which way or what's going to happen, but it's going to change things.
00:04:03.600 And then the pandemic, which, of course, changed commuting patterns rather quickly, etc.
00:04:09.900 None of that's in there, right?
00:04:13.020 Now, let me just say again, this is stuff that largely happened this year or-ish, right?
00:04:21.400 These are gigantic variables that just sort of popped into existence.
00:04:29.220 Nobody saw it coming.
00:04:32.080 All right.
00:04:34.420 Did you hear the Biden administration saying that there's nothing stopping domestic production
00:04:42.800 of oil?
00:04:43.640 Because there are 9,000 leases that are available that haven't been drilled on.
00:04:47.800 What about 9,000 leases?
00:04:50.080 Hey, if nobody's drilling on any of those 9,000 leases, says Biden, I guess the problem
00:04:55.800 isn't the government, because they got these 9,000 leases.
00:04:59.260 And then Fox News says, which can't be used without permits?
00:05:05.920 So the 9,000 leases, totally fake news.
00:05:09.320 What about the part where you can't do anything without a permit?
00:05:15.200 Well, it's fake news until I learn more about that.
00:05:18.980 So I'm going to say they're both fake news.
00:05:20.680 I think both the story and the debunk, they both sound like fake news to me.
00:05:25.420 Because it sounds like there's some third explanation.
00:05:29.180 As in, there's a reason that permits can't be filled, or it's some other entity, or something.
00:05:36.920 So there's more to that story.
00:05:40.120 Somebody says the leases are dry holes.
00:05:43.060 In other words, there's a lease, but there's nothing under it.
00:05:45.640 Is that what you're saying?
00:05:48.760 Yeah, okay.
00:05:50.300 So I would assume that if it were economical to drill for oil on any of these leases, for
00:05:57.080 whatever the reasons, the reasons might be too hard to get permits, or it takes too long,
00:06:03.460 it might be because the holes are dry.
00:06:04.800 It might be because they're not dry, but they don't produce as much or the right thing.
00:06:10.720 So I'm going to guess, if I had to guess on this one, I'd say it is fake news that these
00:06:17.540 are useful places to drill.
00:06:20.820 Would everybody agree?
00:06:22.500 It's probably fake news that there are 9,000 places you could just go drill and get some
00:06:27.840 oil.
00:06:28.820 Probably fake.
00:06:30.320 That's the way I'd go.
00:06:32.260 All right.
00:06:32.600 Project Veritas got a good hit.
00:06:37.380 They had some interviews, your hidden camera interviews, with a New York Times reporter who
00:06:43.240 is an award-winning reporter, so he's a notable person, Matthew Rosenberg.
00:06:48.240 And he was talking about the January 6th coverage.
00:06:50.600 And I guess, I think what Project Veritas does, their secret go-to, is if you send a young,
00:06:57.740 attractive woman to have lunch with any male, that male will tell that young, attractive 0.88
00:07:04.180 woman absolutely anything. 0.99
00:07:07.280 Anything.
00:07:08.660 As long as she sounds interested.
00:07:10.420 To me, the most interesting part of the Project Veritas is listening to the undercover person.
00:07:17.780 Do you ever listen to the undercover person?
00:07:20.240 Because whoever it is, it does a good job.
00:07:22.920 And they don't show that person's face, so I guess they can keep doing this.
00:07:26.640 But the, if it's, I don't know, maybe it's different people each time.
00:07:29.760 But the young woman is clearly indicating an interest in this guy's profession.
00:07:36.000 And like, he's just, he's just poured it out.
00:07:38.600 Ah, man, I just poured it out.
00:07:40.860 So that's a pretty good model, the Project Veritas people have.
00:07:45.300 But a New York Times reporter was saying that he attended the January 6th event, and he said
00:07:51.280 that the media was an overreaction.
00:07:55.880 So he didn't think January 6th was that dangerous or that big a deal.
00:07:59.760 He was there, it didn't seem dangerous, it just seemed like they were having fun.
00:08:03.500 It didn't seem organized, this is the New York Times reporter, who was there, right?
00:08:09.000 So he knows all of the New York Times reporting on it, and he was there.
00:08:12.740 And he says it was not organized, obviously.
00:08:15.840 There were lots of FBI involved.
00:08:19.000 He didn't put a number on it, but lots of FBI involved.
00:08:23.200 And the coverage was an overreaction.
00:08:26.460 So that's what you get when a reporter is talking candidly, as opposed to writing for the boss.
00:08:36.120 Pretty big difference, isn't it?
00:08:38.220 The difference between somebody writing for their boss and somebody talking on their own.
00:08:43.780 That's about as big a difference as you can get on this one.
00:08:47.620 All right.
00:08:49.500 More fake news.
00:08:50.840 Are you hearing the reports that the Russian soldiers didn't know they were attacking Ukraine?
00:08:56.460 And they thought they were on training missions?
00:08:59.540 And when they find out, they're walking away from their tanks?
00:09:03.400 You think that's true?
00:09:06.940 To me, that sounds so not true.
00:09:10.200 Not even a little bit.
00:09:11.760 It sounds exactly what Ukraine wants you to repeat in the media.
00:09:15.420 Hey, why don't you, we captured some of these guys?
00:09:21.000 We got three of them to say they didn't know why they were here.
00:09:24.320 Now, granted, you could always find three military people who don't know why they were anywhere.
00:09:30.480 They don't know why they were doing anything.
00:09:32.300 It wouldn't be hard to find three who didn't know why they were there.
00:09:35.040 Or even thought they were on a training thing.
00:09:37.400 But I wonder if that's the general opinion.
00:09:39.460 Do you think that most of the troops hadn't heard about a baby Ukraine invasion? 0.99
00:09:47.360 Nobody heard about that and talked about it during any of the downtime?
00:09:51.680 I have a real problem believing, a real problem believing, that they didn't know.
00:09:57.880 You want some more evidence of that?
00:10:00.900 Putin's popularity since the invasion is sky high in Russia
00:10:05.840 because the Russians have been told, and they believe by an overwhelming majority,
00:10:12.180 they believe that it's a legitimate invasion
00:10:17.780 and that it's a response to something that they just had to respond to.
00:10:22.580 So the Russian public thinks it's a good war and they support Putin, according to polling.
00:10:28.080 And I guess there's some polling entities that are more trusted than others.
00:10:34.700 Obviously, you have to worry about that.
00:10:36.580 But according to a trusted one, and I tweeted a reference to it,
00:10:41.840 Clint Ehrlich was talking about this,
00:10:44.100 how within Russia we fail to understand
00:10:46.740 that Putin's position got stronger, not weaker,
00:10:50.940 because the public thinks that NATO is the problem.
00:10:54.820 The public doesn't think Putin is invading and destroying a cousin country.
00:11:01.560 They actually think he's saving it.
00:11:04.400 So imagine this.
00:11:08.120 I don't think I could describe exactly the Internet censorship situation in Russia,
00:11:14.040 but in general, they have access to the entire Internet, don't they?
00:11:18.520 Can somebody fact-check me on that?
00:11:20.900 I mean, give or take some specific topics that get censored, of course.
00:11:24.380 But yes, they have access to the whole Internet.
00:11:29.200 And with access to the whole Internet,
00:11:32.100 Putin could still convince them
00:11:33.960 that they were in the right to invade Ukraine.
00:11:38.860 Think about that.
00:11:41.020 Now, when I told you that, did you say to yourself,
00:11:43.960 wow, how could that ever happen,
00:11:47.440 that all of these people with access to the Internet 0.92
00:11:49.420 could be convinced of something so ridiculous
00:11:52.900 that Putin had a good reason to invade Ukraine? 0.82
00:11:57.980 And you say to yourself,
00:11:59.080 that propaganda is stronger than I've ever imagined. 1.00
00:12:04.880 Well, fuck you and me too. 1.00
00:12:07.080 Because how do you know that the Russian propaganda is the wrong one? 1.00
00:12:13.460 How do you know it isn't your propaganda that's the wrong one? 0.99
00:12:17.540 How do you know that it wasn't NATO that started this whole fucking thing? 0.99
00:12:23.120 Because it looks like they started it to me. 0.99
00:12:25.760 I mean, to me, it looks like they started it.
00:12:28.080 I actually agree with the Russian propaganda,
00:12:30.360 and I'm not really subject to it much.
00:12:34.200 I mean, you could argue that some of our pundits are pushing it.
00:12:37.960 But now, of course, the story he's telling,
00:12:43.860 there's something about Nazification, etc.
00:12:45.820 But I don't think that's exactly the biggest part of the story.
00:12:49.600 I think the biggest part of the story in Russia
00:12:51.200 is that NATO is the aggressor.
00:12:54.140 And on paper, NATO looks like the aggressor.
00:12:57.280 NATO looks like the country that's taking a, 0.62
00:12:59.420 you know, a country that could have been neutral
00:13:01.880 and turning it into a threatening entity against Russia.
00:13:07.360 So if the first thing you thought is,
00:13:10.080 my God, how effective Putin is at brainwashing his own public,
00:13:15.580 that could be exactly what's going on.
00:13:18.460 That could be exactly what's going on.
00:13:20.700 But you don't have any way to rule out
00:13:23.580 that it's exactly the other way.
00:13:26.540 It's exactly the other way.
00:13:27.980 It could be that the United States and Europe
00:13:31.860 are completely brainwashed into thinking
00:13:34.700 that Russia is the aggressor 0.82
00:13:36.200 when we're the ones who did the coup in Ukraine
00:13:41.080 and we're the ones who wanted to install NATO
00:13:44.280 in a country that, you know, has a,
00:13:47.680 let's say, a spiritual connection to mainland Russia
00:13:52.440 in a way we could never understand.
00:13:54.040 So I would say keep an open mind
00:13:59.980 about whether the Russians or the everybody else
00:14:03.020 are the ones who are brainwashed in this case.
00:14:05.160 The safe guess is both, right?
00:14:08.380 The safe guess is that nobody knows what's going on
00:14:11.660 and that the real reasons for any of this
00:14:14.700 are probably just not even in the news.
00:14:17.420 It might be some oil companies or some military
00:14:21.700 or some long-term plan to degrade Russia or something.
00:14:26.940 But I'm not even sure the public will ever know
00:14:28.780 why we're even having this.
00:14:33.720 Retired Lieutenant General Kellogg was on Fox News.
00:14:37.860 And let me tell you what he says
00:14:39.080 about how the Ukrainians are doing versus the Russians.
00:14:42.340 So I'll read you his words.
00:14:44.460 Now, remember, he's a retired lieutenant general,
00:14:47.960 so he would know about military things.
00:14:50.660 So when somebody with those credentials
00:14:52.260 talks about military things,
00:14:54.560 they're going to show their work,
00:14:56.580 they're going to give you their reasons,
00:14:58.480 and let's see if he does that.
00:15:00.720 He said every day that goes by,
00:15:02.740 and we're now getting a day 15,
00:15:04.940 they're losing this war,
00:15:06.400 saying Russia is losing the war on Ukraine.
00:15:08.840 Okay, so he hasn't given a reason or a source yet,
00:15:11.320 but he's just setting us up.
00:15:13.080 Now, he says they're losing in the information space
00:15:15.640 for the entire world to see what's going on,
00:15:18.900 to which they say,
00:15:19.580 well, the only information space that matters to them,
00:15:24.680 or at least the most important one,
00:15:26.540 is Russia, Russian opinion.
00:15:28.180 And Russian opinion is going totally Putin's way.
00:15:32.140 So are they losing in the information space?
00:15:35.180 Because I just told you it looked like it might be our fault.
00:15:37.700 I mean, I'm a consumer of the information space.
00:15:42.540 So I'm not so sure they're losing there,
00:15:45.660 but maybe.
00:15:46.980 You know, you can see that the opinion of Russia
00:15:48.940 by a lot of countries that trade with them
00:15:50.520 is much less.
00:15:52.320 So I'll say that's probably true.
00:15:54.980 Then he says they're losing in the military space.
00:15:58.920 And I'm waiting for the source for this
00:16:00.880 or a description of why.
00:16:02.460 And he says,
00:16:02.880 they're being beaten by Ukrainians 1.00
00:16:04.900 and the whole world is going,
00:16:06.340 what?
00:16:07.120 We thought these guys were really 10 feet tall.
00:16:10.240 They're not.
00:16:11.020 They're about 5 foot 5.
00:16:12.920 It's almost like they're,
00:16:15.120 and he goes,
00:16:15.560 I hate to say it
00:16:16.240 because I'm probably insulting the state,
00:16:17.680 but it's almost like
00:16:18.420 the Vermont National Guard
00:16:20.460 with nuclear weapons.
00:16:22.200 They're not performing very well at all.
00:16:24.440 Everybody is saying that.
00:16:25.680 Everybody sees it.
00:16:26.560 Who does that sound like?
00:16:29.920 Everybody's saying it.
00:16:31.000 Everybody sees it
00:16:31.880 with no source
00:16:33.220 and no argument whatsoever.
00:16:35.940 That's Trump.
00:16:37.740 Right?
00:16:39.100 This is something that if Trump said it,
00:16:41.260 I would have said,
00:16:41.740 oh, okay.
00:16:43.000 Because that's his usual sales,
00:16:44.560 sales,
00:16:46.200 you know,
00:16:47.360 hyperbole.
00:16:48.540 Everybody sees it.
00:16:49.580 Everybody's talking about it.
00:16:50.620 Everybody sees it.
00:16:51.940 It's good persuasion.
00:16:53.460 But wait a minute.
00:16:54.180 This is not a persuader.
00:16:55.200 He's a lieutenant general.
00:16:58.020 Where does your information come from
00:17:00.200 that the Ukrainians
00:17:01.760 are winning the war?
00:17:04.480 Are you watching the same news I am?
00:17:07.200 I mean,
00:17:07.540 I don't think he has secret sources,
00:17:09.040 does he?
00:17:09.640 He didn't mention any.
00:17:11.340 But I'm watching the news
00:17:12.660 and I don't see Ukraine
00:17:13.980 winning the war,
00:17:14.800 do you?
00:17:16.300 I mean,
00:17:16.620 I see something really bad
00:17:18.220 which seems like inevitably
00:17:20.340 Ukraine will lose.
00:17:21.760 I mean,
00:17:21.980 if I had to place a bat,
00:17:25.200 I wouldn't be betting
00:17:26.040 on Ukraine winning,
00:17:27.140 would you?
00:17:28.380 I mean,
00:17:28.700 it might.
00:17:29.180 Anything could happen.
00:17:30.400 But I wouldn't bet on it.
00:17:33.920 So what do you take
00:17:34.820 of this retired
00:17:35.920 Lieutenant General
00:17:36.920 Keith Kellogg?
00:17:38.080 is this a guy
00:17:39.460 who's giving you
00:17:40.240 a straightforward opinion
00:17:41.720 on the military reality
00:17:43.480 or was this just propaganda?
00:17:46.620 Because it just looked
00:17:47.780 like propaganda.
00:17:49.360 No source,
00:17:50.380 no reasoning,
00:17:51.400 didn't try to connect
00:17:53.240 any facts we know
00:17:54.580 with any predictions.
00:17:56.660 He just states it
00:17:58.340 like it's true
00:17:58.940 and then says
00:17:59.940 everybody's talking about it,
00:18:00.880 everybody sees it.
00:18:01.640 You know,
00:18:03.700 I'm okay with
00:18:04.720 a president saying
00:18:05.780 everybody knows it,
00:18:06.700 everybody sees it.
00:18:08.500 Right?
00:18:08.700 Because the president
00:18:09.740 is a salesperson
00:18:10.800 in a sense.
00:18:11.700 But not a general.
00:18:13.940 The general should be
00:18:14.880 telling us
00:18:15.540 maybe what's happening
00:18:16.520 actually.
00:18:18.480 All right.
00:18:20.340 Rasmussen says
00:18:21.480 that about 52%
00:18:24.000 of the people
00:18:24.480 polled in this country
00:18:25.780 think that
00:18:27.400 it's at least
00:18:28.940 somewhat likely,
00:18:30.460 some say more likely,
00:18:31.420 but at least
00:18:32.180 somewhat likely
00:18:32.800 we're going to enter
00:18:33.400 a 1930s-style depression.
00:18:36.600 How many of you
00:18:37.440 think that?
00:18:39.140 How many of you
00:18:39.820 watching this
00:18:40.480 think we might be
00:18:41.700 that it's at least
00:18:43.220 somewhat likely,
00:18:46.180 which is a weird way
00:18:47.160 to phrase things,
00:18:48.080 but at least
00:18:48.740 somewhat likely
00:18:49.640 that we'll have
00:18:51.140 a 1930s depression?
00:18:53.440 I'm seeing yeses.
00:18:56.180 Well, anything's possible.
00:18:59.120 So I'll go with
00:18:59.800 anything's possible,
00:19:00.580 but here's my
00:19:01.800 counter-argument.
00:19:03.760 I don't believe
00:19:04.760 that you can have
00:19:05.800 that kind of depression
00:19:08.700 when the world
00:19:09.560 is as connected
00:19:10.560 as it is now.
00:19:13.780 I mean,
00:19:14.040 you'd have to lose
00:19:14.580 the internet
00:19:14.960 for that to happen,
00:19:15.900 I think.
00:19:16.380 Because the internet
00:19:17.220 basically tells you
00:19:18.460 where your problems are,
00:19:20.100 and it instantly
00:19:21.760 connects the problem
00:19:22.900 to the solution.
00:19:25.020 And that didn't exist
00:19:26.180 in the 1930s.
00:19:27.360 And in the 1930s,
00:19:28.700 if you had a problem,
00:19:29.460 you'd have to write
00:19:30.080 a letter.
00:19:32.080 You'd write a letter
00:19:33.060 to somebody.
00:19:34.280 Hey, we might need
00:19:36.300 some equipment
00:19:36.880 that we don't need.
00:19:38.540 Please write back.
00:19:40.580 Okay, maybe they had
00:19:41.800 the telephone.
00:19:42.540 But my point is,
00:19:45.080 everything was in slow
00:19:46.020 motion in the 30s.
00:19:47.580 Today, what happened
00:19:48.720 today when we found
00:19:49.640 out that Russia 0.97
00:19:51.220 is going to degrade
00:19:52.160 their oil?
00:19:53.680 Is it my imagination,
00:19:54.960 or did every
00:19:55.640 oil-producing company
00:19:57.160 instantly ratchet
00:19:59.140 up production,
00:20:00.240 which we won't see
00:20:01.100 coming online
00:20:01.780 for a while?
00:20:02.900 But I think we had
00:20:03.920 instant adjustment.
00:20:05.980 Suppose we saw
00:20:07.680 that we were actually
00:20:08.500 going to run out of gas.
00:20:10.920 Imagine that.
00:20:12.460 Maybe not in the United States.
00:20:13.740 Maybe just our prices
00:20:14.600 would be higher,
00:20:15.500 because if anybody
00:20:16.220 had gas,
00:20:16.740 they'd sell it to us
00:20:17.440 at the higher price.
00:20:18.680 But let's say
00:20:19.500 we got to a point
00:20:20.240 where 10% of the world
00:20:22.720 just doesn't have energy.
00:20:24.380 They're just freezing
00:20:24.940 to death. 0.75
00:20:25.560 Their automobiles
00:20:26.260 won't run.
00:20:27.780 The lower-end countries
00:20:30.020 just don't have energy.
00:20:31.260 There just isn't any.
00:20:32.260 There's nothing
00:20:32.780 they can even buy,
00:20:33.680 because everybody
00:20:34.080 else bought it.
00:20:36.640 Could the Internet
00:20:37.740 just say,
00:20:38.280 hey, all you rich people,
00:20:40.220 could you just drive
00:20:41.140 10% less for a few months,
00:20:43.380 and then we'll have
00:20:44.060 enough oil
00:20:44.800 for the developing countries?
00:20:47.960 I think that would work.
00:20:50.240 I think.
00:20:51.900 I think that if
00:20:52.820 developing countries
00:20:53.740 knew that the undeveloped countries
00:20:55.460 were literally
00:20:56.080 just going to starve,
00:20:57.760 because they had
00:20:58.180 no energy at all,
00:21:00.100 that the developing countries
00:21:01.380 would just immediately
00:21:02.540 say, okay,
00:21:03.300 if this is real,
00:21:04.720 it would take some convincing
00:21:05.780 to know that that was real.
00:21:07.740 But if it were real,
00:21:09.420 I think the developing countries
00:21:10.840 could take 10% off
00:21:12.080 their use
00:21:13.560 for a month or two,
00:21:16.620 you know,
00:21:16.840 until other sources
00:21:17.860 maybe start ramping up.
00:21:19.220 I think we could do that.
00:21:21.300 So there's a whole bunch
00:21:22.160 of flexibility
00:21:22.860 and adjustment
00:21:23.760 and substitution
00:21:25.340 in every possible way
00:21:27.740 that never existed
00:21:28.860 in the 30s.
00:21:30.200 So,
00:21:31.280 while you always have to say
00:21:32.320 anything's possible,
00:21:33.580 and the one that gets you
00:21:34.880 is the one that happens
00:21:35.660 in a way that's
00:21:36.460 not historical,
00:21:38.300 you know,
00:21:38.480 you're always surprised
00:21:39.200 by the new way
00:21:40.000 that things can go wrong,
00:21:42.120 such as an Internet
00:21:43.860 going down.
00:21:44.560 That would be
00:21:44.900 a pretty big deal.
00:21:45.480 But I would say
00:21:47.300 that given the current situation,
00:21:49.040 the odds of a standard
00:21:50.840 depression
00:21:53.340 are pretty low.
00:21:55.560 Now,
00:21:56.120 inflation's going to eat at us
00:21:57.380 for a long time,
00:21:58.520 but I don't know
00:21:59.220 that that will push us
00:22:00.060 into the worst.
00:22:01.780 So I'm not yet seeing
00:22:03.340 a strong signal
00:22:04.720 for the worst case.
00:22:06.860 I see a strong signal
00:22:08.480 for this is feeling
00:22:11.560 sort of like a reboot
00:22:12.700 that will cause 0.92
00:22:15.040 maybe even higher GDP
00:22:17.500 after this.
00:22:18.900 Because I think
00:22:19.880 there will be
00:22:20.600 so many adjustments
00:22:21.640 because of
00:22:22.440 not only the pandemic,
00:22:24.180 but so many adjustments
00:22:25.040 because of Russia 0.89
00:22:26.620 and Ukraine
00:22:27.200 in the energy world,
00:22:29.320 that all that adjustment
00:22:30.320 creates wealth as well.
00:22:33.780 All the activity
00:22:34.600 creates transactions,
00:22:36.060 creates taxes,
00:22:37.720 creates good economies.
00:22:39.480 So I feel as though
00:22:40.880 if we don't have
00:22:42.080 yet another disaster
00:22:43.680 right after this one,
00:22:46.480 which unfortunately
00:22:47.280 seems to be the pattern,
00:22:48.940 but if we don't,
00:22:50.560 I feel like we're going
00:22:51.620 to climb out of this
00:22:52.400 pretty well
00:22:52.960 and climb to a higher place.
00:22:56.360 So I'm optimistic
00:22:57.580 in the
00:22:59.160 two-year window.
00:23:04.800 So here's my prediction.
00:23:06.940 Two years from now,
00:23:08.680 things will look strong.
00:23:10.880 for one year,
00:23:12.680 I think,
00:23:13.660 you know,
00:23:13.980 we're in the fog of war still
00:23:15.400 and blah, blah, blah.
00:23:17.960 Somebody says,
00:23:18.880 Scott has a Tesla.
00:23:20.000 I do not have a Tesla.
00:23:21.280 I do not.
00:23:22.620 I might have one one day,
00:23:24.800 but I do not have one
00:23:26.040 right now.
00:23:29.140 Long story.
00:23:29.920 All right.
00:23:32.760 So Poland did something
00:23:34.020 that was either really clever
00:23:35.320 or not.
00:23:36.240 I don't know.
00:23:36.700 But so there was
00:23:38.900 all this noise about,
00:23:39.880 hey, Poland,
00:23:40.760 why don't you lend
00:23:41.960 some of your MiG jets
00:23:43.580 to Ukraine
00:23:44.900 because they know
00:23:45.440 how to fly these older jets
00:23:46.760 and they'll get more
00:23:48.380 control of the skies
00:23:49.480 and that could change
00:23:52.140 the nature of the war.
00:23:53.760 But Poland said,
00:23:54.740 no, no,
00:23:55.040 we're not going to get involved
00:23:55.920 because if we do that,
00:23:56.900 Russia will think 0.94
00:23:57.440 we're part of the war
00:23:58.160 if we send them
00:23:59.360 our airplanes.
00:23:59.940 So what we'll do
00:24:02.280 is we'll do
00:24:03.360 what the United States
00:24:04.160 and everybody's asking.
00:24:05.640 We'll give you
00:24:06.480 some of our MiGs,
00:24:08.420 but we'll do better
00:24:09.520 than that.
00:24:10.660 Not only will we give you
00:24:12.240 some of our MiGs,
00:24:13.620 we'll give you all of them,
00:24:16.100 the entire fleet.
00:24:17.760 And we'll fly those babies 0.96
00:24:19.120 right into your airport
00:24:20.060 and you can do
00:24:20.580 whatever you want with them.
00:24:22.360 Now we'll temporarily
00:24:23.880 be using your better jets,
00:24:25.620 which we hope
00:24:26.120 we'll be able to keep.
00:24:27.520 But while we're using
00:24:29.980 your better jets,
00:24:31.000 we'll be better protected.
00:24:32.740 These jets will be
00:24:33.580 your problem
00:24:34.180 and we'll deliver them
00:24:35.560 right to you
00:24:36.000 anytime you want them.
00:24:37.060 To which the United States
00:24:38.180 said, what?
00:24:40.260 No, we don't want
00:24:41.380 the thing we asked for
00:24:42.380 because the way
00:24:44.140 you're giving them to us
00:24:45.120 will make it look
00:24:45.760 like it's our fault.
00:24:46.880 To which Poland 0.93
00:24:47.960 probably laughed
00:24:49.080 and said,
00:24:49.820 do you see our 0.99
00:24:50.740 fucking point now? 1.00
00:24:52.540 Do you get it now? 0.99
00:24:55.360 I would not rule out
00:24:56.700 the fact
00:24:57.260 that Poland 0.95
00:24:58.500 just did one of
00:24:59.340 the most clever
00:25:00.060 persuasion tactics
00:25:01.860 and political tactics
00:25:03.080 you've ever seen.
00:25:04.880 Right?
00:25:05.080 Jack Posobiec
00:25:05.760 pointed this out to me,
00:25:06.720 by the way,
00:25:07.080 so it's not my
00:25:08.100 original insight.
00:25:11.620 It looks like
00:25:12.800 Poland used
00:25:14.280 the technique
00:25:15.980 which I talk about,
00:25:17.300 extreme cooperation.
00:25:20.940 Right?
00:25:21.780 You've seen me
00:25:22.480 talk about it, right?
00:25:23.900 When somebody
00:25:24.880 asks for something
00:25:25.480 you don't want to do,
00:25:26.280 when you think
00:25:26.660 it's a bad idea,
00:25:28.020 you cooperate
00:25:29.560 exactly.
00:25:31.020 You give them
00:25:31.620 everything they want
00:25:32.500 and they'll instantly
00:25:33.720 say,
00:25:34.160 well, okay,
00:25:35.060 this wasn't exactly
00:25:35.920 what I wanted.
00:25:38.960 So,
00:25:39.780 this is the smartest
00:25:41.080 thing that,
00:25:42.080 you know,
00:25:42.480 I've ever seen
00:25:43.040 a country do,
00:25:43.820 honestly.
00:25:44.200 if they did this
00:25:46.540 intentionally
00:25:47.100 and they weren't
00:25:48.440 actually trying to
00:25:49.200 help,
00:25:49.480 they were just
00:25:49.760 trying to make
00:25:50.180 it go away.
00:25:51.700 Nailed it.
00:25:52.940 Nailed it.
00:25:54.260 Now,
00:25:54.720 there are also
00:25:55.740 experts disagreeing
00:25:57.200 about whether
00:25:58.460 this air support
00:25:59.340 would make
00:25:59.760 any difference.
00:26:01.040 I would like
00:26:01.820 to employ
00:26:02.400 all of my
00:26:03.480 extreme,
00:26:04.320 extreme military
00:26:05.480 experience
00:26:06.760 and expertise
00:26:07.380 to tell you
00:26:08.280 how many
00:26:10.260 MiGs are there.
00:26:10.940 I don't see
00:26:12.440 how they can
00:26:12.820 make a difference
00:26:13.420 to you.
00:26:14.580 Does there
00:26:14.880 anybody that
00:26:15.600 thinks,
00:26:16.920 what are they
00:26:18.040 going to get
00:26:18.380 a handful?
00:26:20.040 10 or 20?
00:26:21.480 Do you think
00:26:22.040 10 or 20
00:26:22.720 MiGs are going 1.00
00:26:23.520 to make a
00:26:23.840 difference?
00:26:25.180 How long
00:26:25.860 would they
00:26:26.100 even last?
00:26:27.800 Wouldn't they
00:26:28.640 be destroyed
00:26:29.140 on the ground?
00:26:30.640 Don't the
00:26:31.020 MiGs have to 1.00
00:26:31.580 land?
00:26:32.400 Where are they
00:26:32.740 going to land?
00:26:33.280 In another
00:26:33.640 country?
00:26:34.940 If the MiGs
00:26:35.560 land anywhere
00:26:36.320 in Ukraine,
00:26:37.060 how long
00:26:37.400 are they going
00:26:37.720 to last?
00:26:39.020 Russia sees 0.90
00:26:39.840 them land,
00:26:40.940 they're on
00:26:41.680 the ground,
00:26:42.740 they disappear
00:26:44.140 in 10 minutes.
00:26:45.160 Am I wrong?
00:26:46.540 How could you
00:26:47.120 possibly protect
00:26:48.000 them on the
00:26:48.420 ground?
00:26:50.660 So,
00:26:52.740 I want
00:26:53.680 somebody to
00:26:54.360 describe to
00:26:55.180 me how
00:26:57.260 these aircraft
00:26:58.480 make a
00:26:59.060 difference in
00:26:59.540 Ukraine.
00:27:00.000 Like,
00:27:00.180 actually,
00:27:00.880 just game it
00:27:01.600 out for me.
00:27:02.680 I want
00:27:02.960 somebody to
00:27:03.280 say,
00:27:03.480 okay,
00:27:03.860 Scott,
00:27:04.160 what you
00:27:04.400 don't
00:27:04.580 understand
00:27:05.060 with your
00:27:05.600 lack of
00:27:05.980 military
00:27:06.340 training,
00:27:07.500 is that
00:27:08.240 if you
00:27:08.540 just had
00:27:08.900 six of
00:27:09.440 them,
00:27:09.600 even
00:27:10.700 though the
00:27:11.040 Russians
00:27:11.320 might have,
00:27:12.060 I don't
00:27:12.260 know,
00:27:12.540 hundreds,
00:27:13.020 whatever they
00:27:13.420 have,
00:27:14.180 if you
00:27:14.440 had six
00:27:14.840 of them,
00:27:15.620 you could
00:27:16.000 do this
00:27:16.760 or that,
00:27:18.060 and that
00:27:18.420 would make
00:27:18.720 a big
00:27:18.980 difference.
00:27:20.700 Connect the
00:27:21.280 dots for
00:27:21.700 me.
00:27:22.620 I'm open
00:27:23.240 to the
00:27:23.540 argument.
00:27:25.680 I'm totally
00:27:26.280 open to the
00:27:26.780 argument.
00:27:27.200 Somebody says
00:27:27.680 they can be
00:27:28.120 camouflaged.
00:27:30.260 Again,
00:27:30.780 I'm not a
00:27:31.260 military expert,
00:27:32.380 but I don't
00:27:32.840 think you can
00:27:33.420 camouflage an
00:27:34.880 airplane that's
00:27:35.480 being tracked
00:27:36.040 from the air
00:27:37.140 to the ground.
00:27:37.820 wouldn't Russia
00:27:39.360 be able to
00:27:39.840 see every
00:27:40.420 aircraft all
00:27:41.720 the way to
00:27:42.060 the ground
00:27:42.460 with satellites
00:27:44.240 and whatnot,
00:27:45.180 unless they
00:27:45.680 only flew in
00:27:46.400 clouds or
00:27:47.320 something?
00:27:48.240 I don't know.
00:27:49.220 Maybe there is
00:27:50.380 some way to
00:27:50.760 make this
00:27:51.100 work, but
00:27:51.620 it's not
00:27:51.960 obvious to
00:27:52.460 me.
00:27:55.900 They can
00:27:56.620 be protected
00:27:57.280 and supplied,
00:27:59.220 but where are
00:28:00.700 the drones
00:28:01.140 coming from?
00:28:01.780 And the
00:28:03.300 drones can
00:28:03.940 be, can
00:28:05.600 the drones
00:28:06.100 be launched
00:28:06.920 from mobile
00:28:08.160 places, or
00:28:09.720 do the drones
00:28:10.160 have to use
00:28:10.620 an airport?
00:28:12.620 Drones are
00:28:13.120 coming from
00:28:13.540 Turkey.
00:28:14.160 Well, that's
00:28:14.700 where they're
00:28:15.060 purchased from,
00:28:16.060 but are they
00:28:16.460 taking off
00:28:17.000 them?
00:28:18.060 Somebody says
00:28:18.600 mobile, somebody
00:28:19.380 says highway.
00:28:20.680 Okay, so that
00:28:21.120 would be a big
00:28:21.540 difference.
00:28:22.340 You could easily
00:28:23.160 imagine how
00:28:23.780 drones could be
00:28:25.020 moved around
00:28:25.820 and hidden and
00:28:26.780 maybe even
00:28:27.580 launched from
00:28:28.320 some other
00:28:28.740 country if you
00:28:29.600 could get away
00:28:30.060 with it, but
00:28:31.460 I can't see a
00:28:33.100 jet lasting
00:28:34.200 10 minutes.
00:28:37.620 All right.
00:28:38.600 Hide them in
00:28:39.340 the clouds?
00:28:41.440 Maybe.
00:28:44.100 I'm thinking
00:28:44.780 about both
00:28:45.340 military drones
00:28:46.200 and the little
00:28:46.820 ones, because
00:28:47.480 I think even
00:28:49.120 the military
00:28:49.700 ones...
00:28:52.060 Seriously?
00:28:56.020 Let's see
00:28:56.540 what that's
00:28:56.940 all about.
00:28:59.120 Excuse me
00:28:59.820 while I
00:29:00.140 check my
00:29:00.700 front door
00:29:01.220 for security
00:29:02.380 concerns.
00:29:06.880 It's just a
00:29:07.560 package.
00:29:08.680 All right.
00:29:10.100 No problem.
00:29:11.520 All right.
00:29:12.200 Here's what
00:29:12.780 else is going
00:29:13.260 on.
00:29:14.180 So Biden
00:29:14.660 tried to call
00:29:15.760 Saudi Arabia
00:29:16.420 and the
00:29:17.000 United Arab
00:29:17.720 Emirates to 0.99
00:29:18.360 see if they'd
00:29:18.820 pump some
00:29:19.200 more oil to
00:29:20.400 make up for
00:29:20.940 the...
00:29:21.420 By the way,
00:29:22.240 Biden
00:29:22.760 administration
00:29:23.300 did ban
00:29:24.060 Russian oil.
00:29:25.500 How many
00:29:26.380 days ago was
00:29:27.180 it when we
00:29:28.480 thought that
00:29:28.900 wasn't a
00:29:29.320 thing?
00:29:30.920 Weren't we
00:29:31.420 told that
00:29:32.020 we can't
00:29:32.860 stop buying
00:29:33.920 Russian oil
00:29:34.460 and then
00:29:35.500 they just
00:29:35.940 did?
00:29:36.640 And it
00:29:36.860 won't make
00:29:37.160 any difference.
00:29:38.520 Do we
00:29:39.140 even notice
00:29:39.640 it?
00:29:40.660 Are you
00:29:40.920 even going
00:29:41.200 to notice
00:29:41.600 that we're
00:29:41.920 not buying
00:29:42.360 Russian oil?
00:29:43.040 It's like
00:29:43.360 7% of
00:29:44.420 our purchases
00:29:46.140 or something.
00:29:47.240 So I don't
00:29:48.000 think it
00:29:48.280 makes much
00:29:48.800 difference,
00:29:49.440 at least to
00:29:50.140 Russia.
00:29:51.020 But I guess
00:29:51.960 we got that
00:29:52.400 done.
00:29:52.600 now that
00:29:53.580 I'm going
00:29:54.260 to call
00:29:54.520 that an
00:29:55.020 accurate
00:29:55.440 Scott
00:29:56.000 prediction
00:29:56.520 because I
00:29:58.540 did predict
00:29:59.080 to you
00:29:59.460 that almost
00:30:00.540 anybody can
00:30:01.260 adjust to
00:30:02.080 a 10 or
00:30:02.800 25%
00:30:03.600 anything.
00:30:04.820 You can
00:30:05.340 just always
00:30:05.780 adjust in
00:30:06.600 the business
00:30:07.000 world.
00:30:08.440 And so
00:30:09.100 it looks
00:30:11.520 like I think
00:30:13.100 we're going
00:30:13.360 to survive
00:30:13.960 not having
00:30:14.940 Russian oil
00:30:16.400 even if
00:30:17.120 Saudi Arabia
00:30:17.640 and nobody
00:30:18.060 else decides
00:30:19.280 to pump
00:30:19.640 anymore.
00:30:19.920 So Saudi 1.00
00:30:20.980 Arabia and
00:30:21.420 the United
00:30:21.740 Emirates 0.94
00:30:22.600 did not
00:30:23.700 take
00:30:23.980 Biden's
00:30:24.580 call.
00:30:27.560 Well,
00:30:28.200 aren't you
00:30:28.520 glad that
00:30:28.960 the grown-ups
00:30:29.600 are running
00:30:30.040 the country
00:30:30.480 now?
00:30:32.440 Let me
00:30:33.060 ask you
00:30:33.400 this.
00:30:34.520 Do you
00:30:34.820 think the
00:30:35.380 crown prince
00:30:36.420 of Saudi
00:30:37.480 Arabia,
00:30:38.820 the one
00:30:39.160 that Trump
00:30:40.440 protected
00:30:42.020 from the
00:30:44.120 Khashoggi 0.97
00:30:44.560 thing,
00:30:45.860 do you
00:30:46.060 remember
00:30:46.300 that?
00:30:46.760 Do you
00:30:46.940 remember
00:30:47.140 how much
00:30:47.560 trouble
00:30:47.980 Trump
00:30:48.280 got in
00:30:48.800 for sort
00:30:49.900 of protecting
00:30:51.160 in a sense
00:30:51.760 protecting
00:30:52.380 King Salmon
00:30:53.440 and then
00:30:54.220 he got
00:30:54.500 the Abraham
00:30:57.140 Accords
00:30:57.760 done?
00:30:59.740 Coincidence?
00:31:00.700 Is it a
00:31:01.140 coincidence
00:31:01.480 that Trump
00:31:02.600 worked with
00:31:03.440 the crown
00:31:04.220 prince and
00:31:04.720 got a
00:31:05.540 big deal
00:31:06.820 done?
00:31:07.520 Probably
00:31:07.980 not a
00:31:08.320 coincidence.
00:31:09.560 Do you
00:31:09.800 think that
00:31:10.260 the crown
00:31:10.660 prince would
00:31:11.160 not have
00:31:11.540 taken a
00:31:11.960 call from
00:31:12.380 Trump?
00:31:14.100 Not a
00:31:14.900 chance.
00:31:16.340 If Trump
00:31:17.320 calls Saudi
00:31:18.180 Arabia,
00:31:18.800 they pick
00:31:19.240 up the
00:31:19.720 phone.
00:31:21.260 Am I
00:31:21.660 right?
00:31:22.580 They pick
00:31:23.120 up the
00:31:23.420 phone.
00:31:24.160 Do you
00:31:24.380 know why?
00:31:25.760 Because Trump
00:31:26.340 probably has
00:31:26.880 the goods
00:31:27.280 on the
00:31:27.580 crown prince.
00:31:29.180 He protected
00:31:30.160 them.
00:31:31.100 Of course
00:31:31.760 he's going
00:31:32.100 to pick up
00:31:33.520 the phone.
00:31:34.600 That doesn't
00:31:35.180 mean they
00:31:35.460 would have
00:31:35.680 pumped more
00:31:36.180 oil, but
00:31:36.680 he certainly
00:31:37.120 would have
00:31:37.420 taken the
00:31:37.820 call, I
00:31:39.000 think.
00:31:41.220 I guess
00:31:41.980 the crown
00:31:42.540 prince is
00:31:42.980 taking calls
00:31:43.580 from Putin,
00:31:44.680 so it's
00:31:45.560 pretty bad.
00:31:46.280 But I
00:31:46.840 guess we
00:31:47.080 got some
00:31:47.400 problems with
00:31:48.120 Saudi Arabia.
00:31:48.940 They want
00:31:49.220 help with
00:31:49.620 Yemen.
00:31:50.600 I guess we're
00:31:51.180 not being
00:31:51.500 helpful there.
00:31:52.060 They think
00:31:52.940 the Iran
00:31:53.400 deal isn't
00:31:54.200 going to be
00:31:54.660 good for
00:31:54.980 them.
00:31:55.500 They want
00:31:55.820 something more
00:31:56.560 in there.
00:31:57.700 They want
00:31:58.280 help building
00:31:58.960 their own
00:31:59.280 nuclear bombs.
00:32:01.100 I guess we're
00:32:01.540 not helping
00:32:02.000 enough there.
00:32:03.080 They want
00:32:03.480 legal immunity
00:32:04.260 for the
00:32:04.700 crown prince,
00:32:05.500 because apparently
00:32:06.040 there are
00:32:06.380 lawsuits,
00:32:07.060 et cetera,
00:32:07.360 against them
00:32:07.820 in the
00:32:08.260 United States.
00:32:08.820 If those
00:32:11.660 are the
00:32:11.920 only problems,
00:32:13.140 all right,
00:32:13.300 so that's
00:32:13.600 what Saudi
00:32:14.000 wanted,
00:32:14.420 help in
00:32:14.740 Yemen,
00:32:16.140 something with
00:32:16.680 the Iran
00:32:17.080 deal,
00:32:18.520 help building
00:32:19.460 nukes,
00:32:20.420 and legal
00:32:21.040 immunity for
00:32:21.620 the crown
00:32:21.960 prince,
00:32:22.900 could Trump
00:32:23.580 have made
00:32:23.940 that deal?
00:32:26.260 Yes.
00:32:27.840 Now, that
00:32:28.460 doesn't mean it
00:32:28.980 would be a
00:32:29.420 good thing to
00:32:29.960 do, or
00:32:31.020 that he
00:32:31.300 would have
00:32:31.600 tried.
00:32:32.720 But given
00:32:33.300 these variables,
00:32:34.960 are these the
00:32:35.740 kinds of
00:32:36.300 variables that
00:32:36.900 you can't make
00:32:37.460 a deal with?
00:32:38.000 No, these
00:32:39.200 are exactly
00:32:39.720 the kinds
00:32:40.160 of variables
00:32:40.600 you can
00:32:41.120 make a
00:32:41.480 deal with.
00:32:42.340 These are
00:32:42.700 exactly the
00:32:43.360 kinds of
00:32:43.700 things you
00:32:44.020 make deals
00:32:44.520 with.
00:32:45.960 Yeah, we'll
00:32:46.640 help you
00:32:46.980 more with
00:32:47.460 all these
00:32:47.880 things, and
00:32:49.420 we'll give
00:32:50.860 you some
00:32:51.160 legal immunity
00:32:51.840 because you're
00:32:52.840 the head of
00:32:53.220 state, so
00:32:53.900 somehow we'll
00:32:56.080 make it work.
00:32:57.300 I think Trump
00:32:57.980 could have
00:32:58.260 given him all
00:32:58.820 these things
00:32:59.320 and just got
00:33:00.600 some oil.
00:33:01.560 But Trump
00:33:02.060 wouldn't have
00:33:02.880 had to ask
00:33:03.520 for it,
00:33:03.860 would he?
00:33:04.820 Because the
00:33:05.560 domestic production
00:33:06.580 would still be
00:33:07.160 high.
00:33:08.000 So this is
00:33:10.200 like a double
00:33:11.000 Trump would
00:33:11.600 have been
00:33:11.900 better situation.
00:33:13.600 He never
00:33:14.140 would have
00:33:14.440 had to
00:33:14.740 make the
00:33:15.160 call to
00:33:15.960 Saudi Arabia,
00:33:16.980 but if he
00:33:18.260 made the
00:33:18.660 call, they
00:33:19.880 would have
00:33:20.140 taken the
00:33:20.600 call.
00:33:20.880 Tell me I'm
00:33:22.820 wrong about
00:33:23.260 that.
00:33:24.420 Tell me I'm
00:33:24.940 wrong about
00:33:25.360 that.
00:33:25.640 I'm not
00:33:25.920 wrong about
00:33:26.300 that.
00:33:27.320 He wouldn't
00:33:27.780 have needed
00:33:28.140 to make the
00:33:28.680 call, but
00:33:29.920 if he didn't
00:33:30.400 need to make
00:33:31.080 the call, they
00:33:31.580 would have
00:33:31.800 answered the
00:33:32.200 freaking 0.99
00:33:32.400 phone.
00:33:32.760 All right.
00:33:35.840 I am
00:33:36.520 getting sick
00:33:37.740 to my
00:33:38.100 stomach over
00:33:38.740 this Zelensky
00:33:39.920 hero myth
00:33:41.520 Churchillian 0.99
00:33:42.620 crap. 1.00
00:33:45.240 Now, 0.99
00:33:45.880 independent of
00:33:46.800 what I think
00:33:47.300 should happen
00:33:47.780 in Ukraine,
00:33:48.560 so I'm not
00:33:48.980 even talking
00:33:49.460 about Ukraine
00:33:50.200 right now.
00:33:51.420 This is not
00:33:51.940 even about
00:33:52.560 Ukraine and
00:33:53.640 their situation.
00:33:54.700 This is only
00:33:55.220 about him.
00:33:56.500 It's only about
00:33:57.160 persuasion, and
00:33:58.920 it's only about
00:33:59.380 how it makes
00:33:59.800 me feel.
00:34:00.240 It actually
00:34:00.640 makes me
00:34:01.080 sick.
00:34:02.280 And the
00:34:02.500 reason is,
00:34:03.040 it's so
00:34:03.700 heavy-handed.
00:34:05.740 And I
00:34:06.500 especially see
00:34:07.380 women praising
00:34:09.040 him, which
00:34:10.520 seems weird.
00:34:11.160 I don't know
00:34:11.460 if Winston
00:34:12.160 Churchill got
00:34:12.920 a lot of
00:34:13.240 women praising
00:34:13.860 him.
00:34:14.640 Is there
00:34:14.980 something about
00:34:15.640 him that
00:34:16.000 makes him
00:34:16.480 cute or
00:34:17.160 sexy to
00:34:18.600 women? 1.00
00:34:19.780 And is
00:34:20.140 that like
00:34:20.560 at least half
00:34:21.360 of what's
00:34:21.720 going on
00:34:22.140 here?
00:34:23.380 But when
00:34:25.160 I see such
00:34:25.880 blatant
00:34:26.880 propaganda,
00:34:28.580 and I see
00:34:29.120 it working,
00:34:30.240 it sickens
00:34:31.640 me, because
00:34:32.640 I see my
00:34:33.140 own country
00:34:33.680 being poisoned
00:34:34.420 by his
00:34:36.920 persuasion,
00:34:37.880 which, by
00:34:38.440 the way, may
00:34:39.040 I compliment
00:34:39.660 him, he's
00:34:40.800 really good
00:34:41.320 at it.
00:34:42.560 He's really
00:34:43.160 good at it.
00:34:44.380 So let me
00:34:45.840 be really
00:34:46.200 clear.
00:34:46.740 If I'm
00:34:47.020 talking about
00:34:47.440 just his
00:34:47.840 technique, it's
00:34:48.700 the same thing
00:34:49.140 I do with
00:34:49.520 Trump, right?
00:34:50.320 You can like
00:34:51.060 him or love
00:34:51.520 him or hate
00:34:52.160 him or
00:34:52.380 whatever.
00:34:53.060 But if you
00:34:53.460 just talk
00:34:53.800 about his
00:34:54.060 technique for
00:34:54.960 persuasion, it's
00:34:55.780 often tremendous.
00:34:57.940 And Zelensky,
00:34:58.840 same thing.
00:34:59.260 His technique
00:35:00.240 is, my
00:35:01.480 God, I
00:35:03.640 mean, Zelensky's
00:35:04.400 technique is
00:35:06.080 incredible, because
00:35:07.560 he had all the
00:35:08.240 talents coming into
00:35:09.440 the job, right?
00:35:10.180 Entertainment
00:35:10.580 talents.
00:35:11.760 So it's not
00:35:12.920 surprising that
00:35:13.760 somebody with
00:35:14.240 his qualifications
00:35:16.000 could pull off
00:35:16.960 this hero myth
00:35:18.320 thing, but it
00:35:20.060 just sickens me.
00:35:22.040 And by the way,
00:35:23.180 usually when you
00:35:23.800 say something
00:35:24.280 sickens you, you
00:35:25.760 don't mean it
00:35:26.280 actually,
00:35:26.660 physically, but I
00:35:28.200 actually do mean
00:35:28.880 it.
00:35:29.180 Like, I
00:35:29.440 actually have
00:35:29.920 almost a mild
00:35:32.540 nausea when I
00:35:34.880 think about
00:35:35.320 him.
00:35:36.060 Does anybody
00:35:36.460 else have
00:35:36.860 that?
00:35:39.620 No, it's
00:35:40.240 not because he's
00:35:40.880 creepy.
00:35:42.060 I don't think
00:35:42.540 he's creepy.
00:35:44.440 It's just that
00:35:45.280 the persuasion
00:35:46.240 is just so
00:35:47.060 heavy-handed.
00:35:48.400 Like, you can
00:35:49.040 just feel it
00:35:49.740 just pushing your
00:35:50.420 head down.
00:35:50.940 It's like,
00:35:51.140 oh, I get it,
00:35:51.920 I get it.
00:35:52.440 But at the
00:35:53.720 same time, it
00:35:54.260 works, which
00:35:56.300 is doubly
00:35:57.200 annoying.
00:35:58.500 It's doubly
00:35:59.160 annoying that
00:35:59.740 you know it's
00:36:00.580 propaganda and
00:36:01.520 brainwashing, and
00:36:02.500 it works, even
00:36:04.620 when you know
00:36:05.220 it.
00:36:05.580 It still works.
00:36:06.800 That's how good
00:36:07.380 it is.
00:36:08.020 I tell you this
00:36:08.800 about persuasion
00:36:09.540 all the time,
00:36:11.180 that you think,
00:36:12.600 if you know what
00:36:13.680 tricks people are
00:36:14.780 using to persuade
00:36:15.640 you, that that's
00:36:17.080 all you need to
00:36:17.660 defend yourself.
00:36:18.820 It's like, I
00:36:19.280 know what you're
00:36:19.780 doing.
00:36:20.600 You're using the
00:36:21.320 old making me
00:36:22.040 think past the
00:36:22.800 sale trick.
00:36:23.880 I get it.
00:36:24.720 You're just
00:36:25.320 comparing this to
00:36:26.240 something that's
00:36:27.500 way too expensive.
00:36:28.500 Well, I think
00:36:28.940 this isn't as
00:36:29.680 expensive.
00:36:30.140 I get your
00:36:30.640 trick, and then
00:36:31.580 it works.
00:36:32.540 It works anyway.
00:36:34.180 There's actually
00:36:34.880 no defense against
00:36:35.780 it, and it's
00:36:36.360 one of the most
00:36:37.260 frustrating things
00:36:38.080 about persuasion
00:36:39.780 is that you
00:36:40.600 can't defend
00:36:41.860 yourself against
00:36:42.560 it.
00:36:43.280 It is by
00:36:43.820 definition the
00:36:44.560 thing that goes
00:36:45.060 past your
00:36:45.620 critical defenses
00:36:47.080 without any
00:36:47.860 friction.
00:36:48.240 So, there's
00:36:54.020 this weird
00:36:54.480 story about
00:36:55.260 biolabs in 0.98
00:36:56.380 Ukraine.
00:36:57.700 Glenn Greenwald
00:36:58.540 was talking about
00:36:59.240 it especially.
00:37:00.300 And he tweeted
00:37:01.060 that Ukraine has
00:37:02.180 biological research
00:37:03.460 facilities.
00:37:04.920 And this was
00:37:05.380 according to
00:37:05.980 Undersecretary of
00:37:06.880 State Victoria
00:37:07.600 Newland.
00:37:09.020 And Rubio,
00:37:09.860 Senator Rubio,
00:37:10.480 was asking her if
00:37:11.400 Ukraine has 0.72
00:37:11.980 biological chemical
00:37:12.980 weapons.
00:37:13.340 And she's
00:37:15.260 worried that
00:37:15.840 Russia may try
00:37:16.600 to get them.
00:37:17.200 So, I guess they
00:37:18.760 might have
00:37:19.080 something we
00:37:19.580 don't want them
00:37:20.020 to get.
00:37:20.720 We don't know
00:37:21.260 the exact nature
00:37:21.920 of it.
00:37:23.400 But then Rubio
00:37:24.440 sort of led the
00:37:25.220 witness and,
00:37:26.320 you know, primed
00:37:27.140 her to say, by
00:37:28.100 saying it himself
00:37:28.820 first, that if
00:37:31.660 there's any
00:37:32.360 biological attack,
00:37:34.780 Newland is 100%
00:37:35.980 sure it would
00:37:36.980 be Russia.
00:37:39.320 How could you
00:37:40.160 be 100% sure
00:37:41.300 it's Russia?
00:37:41.740 If there's a
00:37:43.380 biological attack,
00:37:45.520 she's 100% sure
00:37:46.720 it's not the
00:37:47.340 Ukrainians? 0.77
00:37:48.520 How could you
00:37:48.980 be 100% sure?
00:37:50.820 Now, she does
00:37:51.720 say, and I get
00:37:52.980 that this part is
00:37:53.680 actually smart,
00:37:55.140 she does say
00:37:55.760 that the Russians
00:37:56.320 routinely do
00:37:57.200 these false flag
00:37:58.060 things, so the
00:37:59.220 most obvious
00:38:00.560 play for them,
00:38:01.620 the Russians,
00:38:02.600 would be to do
00:38:03.480 a false flag
00:38:04.440 chemical attack
00:38:05.500 as if the
00:38:07.220 Ukrainians had 0.99
00:38:07.980 staged the
00:38:08.580 attack.
00:38:09.140 But here's
00:38:09.620 the problem.
00:38:11.740 If the
00:38:12.840 Ukrainians used
00:38:13.700 a chemical
00:38:14.140 attack, they 1.00
00:38:15.640 wouldn't use
00:38:16.100 it in their
00:38:16.440 own city, I
00:38:18.140 don't think.
00:38:19.240 I mean, even
00:38:19.700 if attacked.
00:38:20.500 They would use
00:38:21.100 it on the
00:38:21.580 forces, like
00:38:22.400 they would use
00:38:23.020 it on the
00:38:23.500 convoy or
00:38:24.420 wherever the
00:38:24.920 forces are,
00:38:26.080 bivouacked or
00:38:26.880 whatever the
00:38:27.300 words for that
00:38:28.480 are.
00:38:30.080 Wouldn't they?
00:38:31.200 Because I don't
00:38:31.760 think they would
00:38:32.300 risk a biological
00:38:33.860 attack spilling
00:38:34.840 into their own
00:38:35.960 civilian population.
00:38:38.100 So even if
00:38:39.640 Russia tried to 0.73
00:38:41.000 stage a fake
00:38:42.100 biological attack,
00:38:44.980 I don't know
00:38:45.880 that that would
00:38:46.360 work, because
00:38:47.000 people would say,
00:38:47.580 well, you did
00:38:48.900 invade their 0.98
00:38:49.420 country.
00:38:50.580 It might be the
00:38:51.440 one time that
00:38:52.060 people would be
00:38:52.660 okay with a
00:38:53.240 biological attack.
00:38:55.100 Well, let me
00:38:55.660 test it right
00:38:56.660 here.
00:38:57.220 If I asked
00:38:57.900 you, would
00:38:59.340 you be in
00:38:59.740 favor of
00:39:00.620 chemical or
00:39:01.920 biological warfare,
00:39:03.600 pretty much all
00:39:04.500 of you would say
00:39:05.020 no.
00:39:05.860 No, I'm not in
00:39:06.560 favor of that.
00:39:07.120 No, no, no.
00:39:08.100 But suppose your
00:39:10.860 own country got
00:39:11.880 invaded, and you
00:39:15.100 had these chemical
00:39:15.840 weapons, and you
00:39:17.540 were only going to
00:39:18.320 use them against the
00:39:19.080 military of the
00:39:19.780 other side, and if
00:39:20.940 you don't, you
00:39:23.000 will be conquered 0.97
00:39:23.800 and maybe killed. 0.99
00:39:26.280 Would you use 1.00
00:39:27.160 them?
00:39:28.160 Would you use
00:39:29.140 chemical, biological
00:39:30.540 warfare just on
00:39:31.700 soldiers, not on
00:39:32.940 any civilians, but
00:39:34.040 only on soldiers if
00:39:35.260 they invaded your
00:39:35.960 country?
00:39:36.280 Well, I'm
00:39:38.360 sorry to say that
00:39:39.700 I'm seeing a lot
00:39:40.240 of yeses, a lot
00:39:42.560 of yeses, mostly
00:39:43.300 on the locals
00:39:43.880 platform because
00:39:44.640 they answer
00:39:45.280 faster, and I'm
00:39:46.680 seeing yeses here
00:39:47.340 too.
00:39:48.240 I feel like I
00:39:49.180 might be a yes
00:39:49.900 as well.
00:39:50.920 Depends on the
00:39:51.580 situation.
00:39:52.220 I mean, the
00:39:52.660 specifics matter, but
00:39:54.280 I wouldn't rule it
00:39:54.920 out.
00:39:56.060 I would definitely
00:39:56.920 rule out chemical
00:39:57.900 weapons in any
00:39:58.940 foreign theater,
00:40:00.440 water, but if
00:40:01.960 somebody's on my
00:40:02.940 land, well, let
00:40:05.260 me make it more
00:40:07.480 personal.
00:40:09.260 If somebody does a
00:40:11.540 home invasion and
00:40:12.520 comes into your
00:40:13.080 house with weapons
00:40:14.040 pulled, and you
00:40:15.920 had a way to throw
00:40:17.900 acid on them and 1.00
00:40:19.420 kill them with 1.00
00:40:20.320 basically chemical 1.00
00:40:21.260 warfare in your own
00:40:22.960 house, you just had
00:40:23.600 some acid, so you
00:40:24.320 threw them.
00:40:25.180 Is that unfair?
00:40:27.520 Somebody's got a
00:40:28.220 gun and they came
00:40:28.840 in your own house to
00:40:29.600 do bad things to
00:40:30.280 you, can you
00:40:31.120 throw acid on 0.96
00:40:31.880 them?
00:40:33.620 Sure.
00:40:34.920 Sure.
00:40:35.880 You sure as hell
00:40:36.820 can.
00:40:37.740 You can throw a
00:40:38.380 whole vat of acid 0.52
00:40:39.140 on them.
00:40:40.640 Self-defense.
00:40:42.640 So I think Russia 0.94
00:40:44.680 would actually have a
00:40:45.600 pretty good false
00:40:46.600 flag case, but I
00:40:49.580 don't know if they
00:40:50.040 would get any
00:40:50.640 sympathy.
00:40:52.420 See what I'm
00:40:52.900 saying?
00:40:53.960 Because if Russia 0.95
00:40:54.920 showed a bunch of
00:40:55.780 Ukrainian civilians
00:40:57.280 being hurt by
00:40:59.120 Ukraine's own 0.72
00:41:00.240 chemical attack, I
00:41:01.220 don't know that
00:41:01.620 that would be
00:41:02.080 believable, because
00:41:03.460 why would Ukraine 0.96
00:41:04.520 attack its own
00:41:05.380 people?
00:41:06.220 But if it attacked
00:41:07.160 soldiers on the
00:41:08.560 Russian side, no 0.99
00:41:09.880 matter how bad the
00:41:11.340 attack was, no
00:41:13.220 matter how many
00:41:13.880 Russian soldiers
00:41:14.620 died, I think the
00:41:16.780 world would just say,
00:41:17.580 well, they attacked.
00:41:20.200 Right?
00:41:20.940 So I'm not sure it
00:41:21.840 works as a false flag.
00:41:24.480 Does it?
00:41:25.120 It doesn't look like
00:41:26.940 it would ever work as
00:41:27.740 a false flag.
00:41:29.060 So I'm going to say
00:41:29.620 no.
00:41:30.320 We won't see one.
00:41:32.680 All right.
00:41:35.040 People are quite
00:41:36.380 rightly criticizing
00:41:38.320 anybody who says
00:41:39.320 that, oh, we just
00:41:40.340 have to put up with
00:41:41.060 higher gas prices, and
00:41:42.980 that's no big deal.
00:41:44.280 And if that's all we
00:41:45.060 have to put up with
00:41:45.760 to fight Putin, it's
00:41:47.160 worth it.
00:41:48.180 And then smart people
00:41:49.500 point out, not
00:41:51.340 everybody can afford to
00:41:52.900 fill up their tank and
00:41:53.740 even go to work at
00:41:55.620 those prices.
00:41:56.980 I mean, this is like
00:41:57.740 an extinction-level
00:41:59.400 event if you can
00:42:00.960 barely afford food.
00:42:03.440 So I think we need
00:42:06.400 to have a little bit
00:42:07.340 more enlightenment
00:42:08.060 about what this is
00:42:09.200 really doing to our
00:42:10.220 own lower-income
00:42:12.420 people.
00:42:13.740 So I'll just add to
00:42:15.040 the voices saying
00:42:15.680 that.
00:42:20.280 Was it two weeks
00:42:21.420 ago that all the
00:42:23.460 smart people were
00:42:24.220 saying that sanctions
00:42:25.060 wouldn't really hurt
00:42:25.900 Russia that much?
00:42:28.440 Do me a, I guess
00:42:30.340 it's a sanity check
00:42:32.120 or a fact check.
00:42:34.940 But that's right,
00:42:35.900 right?
00:42:36.160 About two weeks
00:42:37.020 ago, I think all
00:42:38.960 of the experts,
00:42:39.940 correct me if I'm
00:42:40.560 wrong, I believe 100%
00:42:41.720 of the experts that I
00:42:42.540 heard anyway, I think
00:42:43.940 100% of the experts
00:42:44.920 said you can't really
00:42:46.460 hurt Russia that much 0.98
00:42:47.660 because, you know,
00:42:48.980 you're not going to
00:42:49.480 impact their energy
00:42:50.320 and blah, blah, blah.
00:42:51.220 Today, isn't it 100%
00:42:56.720 of people saying
00:42:57.500 this is going to be
00:42:58.280 devastating to Russia's 0.99
00:42:59.380 economy?
00:43:00.900 Which is different
00:43:01.800 from will it change
00:43:03.180 Putin's tactics
00:43:04.580 because I don't think
00:43:05.480 it will.
00:43:06.820 But, yeah, I was
00:43:09.640 saying Putin wouldn't.
00:43:10.660 So, yeah, let's get
00:43:11.580 back to my worst
00:43:13.380 prediction of the year.
00:43:15.060 So my worst prediction
00:43:16.100 of the year is that
00:43:17.660 Putin wouldn't attack.
00:43:18.840 Do you remember why?
00:43:21.340 What was my reasoning
00:43:22.400 for that?
00:43:23.260 My reasoning was it's
00:43:24.660 obviously horrible for
00:43:26.780 Russia and that there's 0.84
00:43:28.960 no way that Putin
00:43:29.900 wouldn't know it would
00:43:31.540 be horrible for Russia.
00:43:34.760 Except that maybe it
00:43:37.640 won't be.
00:43:39.360 I think that Putin wins
00:43:41.020 if all he does is
00:43:41.900 survive.
00:43:43.220 He just has to stay in
00:43:44.580 power for X number of
00:43:46.860 years and the sanctions
00:43:48.880 will wear off or
00:43:50.380 they'll find workarounds
00:43:51.500 and they will own
00:43:52.820 Ukraine.
00:43:54.220 He will be a hero and
00:43:55.860 his popularity is sky
00:43:57.280 high right now.
00:43:58.420 So I think that the
00:43:59.780 Russians will blame the 1.00
00:44:00.680 rest of the world for
00:44:01.620 their economy.
00:44:02.540 They'll adjust.
00:44:03.740 They'll think Putin's a
00:44:04.760 hero.
00:44:05.160 He made Russia bigger, 0.97
00:44:06.560 got Ukraine back into 0.98
00:44:07.800 the fold.
00:44:08.700 They will forget the
00:44:09.760 horrors that happened in
00:44:10.680 Ukraine because their 0.98
00:44:11.600 media won't show them to.
00:44:12.540 So they just won't know
00:44:15.380 how bad it was in any of
00:44:17.960 the Ukrainian cities.
00:44:20.320 I think the Russian
00:44:22.600 economy is going to go
00:44:23.860 down substantially.
00:44:26.020 The Russian public is
00:44:27.000 going to suffer a lot and
00:44:30.180 Putin's going to stay in
00:44:31.080 power and own Ukraine.
00:44:33.720 So that's what it looks
00:44:34.780 like now.
00:44:35.680 So the reason that my
00:44:37.020 horrible prediction that he
00:44:40.340 wouldn't attack even when it's
00:44:42.520 entire army was there, I
00:44:44.100 thought he could be
00:44:44.720 bluffing.
00:44:45.820 But I still think he
00:44:47.820 planned it as a bluff
00:44:49.260 primarily.
00:44:51.020 Even the 48 hours to
00:44:53.040 conquer Ukraine, even when 0.98
00:44:54.840 he sent troops in, I think
00:44:56.920 he was still looking for a
00:44:58.280 quick capitulation and 0.99
00:44:59.700 maybe get lucky and kill 1.00
00:45:01.540 Zelensky quickly.
00:45:03.440 So I don't feel like he was
00:45:05.140 ever playing for the full
00:45:06.220 war.
00:45:06.980 I just think he had that
00:45:08.020 option in the back.
00:45:09.620 I don't think he expected
00:45:10.720 it necessarily.
00:45:12.520 Yeah, the U.S.
00:45:13.760 will suffer too in the
00:45:15.300 short run.
00:45:17.300 But it could change
00:45:18.980 everything about how
00:45:19.960 energy is produced and how
00:45:21.380 countries interact with each
00:45:23.000 other.
00:45:23.680 But here's the real
00:45:24.580 question.
00:45:26.560 I always assumed there
00:45:28.020 would be a time when a
00:45:30.060 kinetic war where you're
00:45:31.340 shooting actual bullets and
00:45:32.600 stuff would be impractical
00:45:36.300 once everybody is connected
00:45:38.360 financially.
00:45:39.020 because the world can
00:45:41.160 punish somebody who does a
00:45:42.460 kinetic war by just taking
00:45:44.440 them out of the financial
00:45:45.460 system and that would be too
00:45:46.820 much of a penalty.
00:45:48.660 So I'm watching this one with
00:45:50.380 great interest because this
00:45:51.480 might be the turning point
00:45:52.640 where even if Putin prevails,
00:45:55.800 even if Putin gets Ukraine,
00:45:57.540 even if Russia stays 0.56
00:45:59.380 together, I'm pretty sure their
00:46:01.660 economy will be greatly
00:46:02.800 degraded.
00:46:03.020 And so to the, and what would
00:46:05.780 be the lesson that people
00:46:06.940 would get from it?
00:46:08.020 I think the lesson that people
00:46:09.540 would get from it is that it
00:46:10.580 doesn't pay to attack your
00:46:11.920 neighbor anymore.
00:46:14.240 There used to be a way that you
00:46:16.620 could attack your neighbor and
00:46:17.800 make a profit.
00:46:19.540 You know, you attack, you win,
00:46:20.960 you get their resources, you start
00:46:22.980 taxing them, you make a profit.
00:46:24.440 But I think Russia is going to be 1.00
00:46:26.880 the proof point and, you know,
00:46:29.220 the crossover point where an
00:46:30.900 economic war becomes so, so
00:46:34.100 dangerous that nobody can risk
00:46:36.860 one by attacking their neighbor
00:46:38.180 with a kinetic army.
00:46:40.060 So even with Putin's survival,
00:46:43.260 it's going to look like it was a
00:46:44.760 bad idea to other countries.
00:46:47.040 But within Russia, maybe Russia 0.79
00:46:48.880 will think it was a good idea for
00:46:50.100 them.
00:46:51.720 Somebody says, wrong prediction
00:46:52.940 again.
00:46:53.280 Maybe.
00:46:54.440 This is amazing.
00:46:58.720 So this is a Clint Ehrlich tweet
00:47:01.360 thread.
00:47:02.680 He said that more than 66% of
00:47:04.700 Russians blamed the conflict on
00:47:06.320 America, NATO, or Ukraine, and
00:47:08.980 only 4% in a poll said the
00:47:11.300 conflict was Russia's fault. 0.91
00:47:14.600 4%.
00:47:15.160 Just think about that.
00:47:19.040 In Russia, only 4% think that
00:47:21.720 Putin is the cause of the war.
00:47:24.440 What do you think?
00:47:26.320 Let me ask you in the comments.
00:47:28.500 You get to pick one of these as
00:47:30.240 the cause.
00:47:30.960 Of course, it's not one cause.
00:47:32.700 But for simplicity, is the cause
00:47:35.420 Putin, NATO, or Ukraine?
00:47:39.400 Or any combination.
00:47:40.400 Or any combination.
00:47:41.320 What do you think?
00:47:42.080 Who caused it?
00:47:44.320 NATO, NATO, Putin.
00:47:45.800 Putin, NATO, NATO, Putin.
00:47:47.520 I'm just reading off.
00:47:49.580 NATO.
00:47:50.580 NATO, NATO, NATO.
00:47:52.060 NATO, NATO, Putin.
00:47:54.040 NATO, NATO, NATO.
00:47:55.680 Putin.
00:47:57.320 NATO.
00:47:57.600 NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, Nokia, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO, NATO.
00:48:13.940 live stream? Is that why I would get...
00:48:17.480 Are you surprised? Did I prime you to think that, or did
00:48:21.920 you already think that? Did everybody already... I hope I didn't
00:48:26.000 influence you that much. I doubt
00:48:30.020 I could have. I don't think that could have happened. Wow. So
00:48:33.760 let me say I'm really
00:48:37.080 proud of all of you, honestly. I'm proud
00:48:41.960 that the propaganda that you're receiving isn't... it's not
00:48:45.800 digging in as much as you'd expect it to. So apparently the Russian 1.00
00:48:49.980 public is still more susceptible to propaganda than...
00:48:54.120 Well, actually it's not propaganda, because you agree with them.
00:48:57.960 Never mind. I guess it's not propaganda. I think maybe Russia
00:49:01.880 is just actually telling the truth in this case. They're not telling the truth about a whole range
00:49:06.100 of things. Yeah, they're definitely lying about a whole bunch of things, such as
00:49:09.800 we're not going to invade. But
00:49:12.360 it might be
00:49:15.740 NATO's fault. 0.66
00:49:18.080 It might be.
00:49:23.160 The Ukraine
00:49:24.000 Constitution is the fault.
00:49:26.000 You know, I don't know.
00:49:27.780 I don't think that the fact that the
00:49:29.780 Ukraine Constitution says
00:49:31.200 that they're going to join NATO,
00:49:32.840 I don't think that was really the problem.
00:49:36.420 Because you can change anything that's on paper
00:49:38.380 if you have a good enough reason.
00:49:40.460 I mean, you can hurry up anything.
00:49:43.240 NATO is warned. That's right.
00:49:44.780 They were warned.
00:49:45.920 But, you know, but that doesn't mean anything.
00:49:47.940 Just because somebody warns you not to do something,
00:49:50.020 that doesn't mean you have to go do it.
00:49:51.260 Do you think that anybody infected the
00:50:02.660 Russian
00:50:04.420 convoy with COVID?
00:50:08.620 That would be a dirty trick.
00:50:12.000 All right.
00:50:12.880 So that's all we got now.
00:50:14.500 I think that was the last thing
00:50:16.080 we wanted to talk about.
00:50:19.560 I guess we'll have to find out about
00:50:21.020 those bio labs in Ukraine.
00:50:23.200 But that story sounds a little
00:50:24.420 suspicious to me.
00:50:26.360 A little bit suspicious.
00:50:27.400 Do we still think that the convoy
00:50:33.680 was stalled by bad tires?
00:50:37.040 Apparently they're not Chinese tires,
00:50:38.820 by the way.
00:50:40.000 Somebody who really knows tires
00:50:41.480 saw they were from some other country
00:50:44.380 in the area.
00:50:45.120 I forget which one.
00:50:49.560 Most Russians are not going to say 0.86
00:50:51.100 Putin is wrong.
00:50:51.860 I think they might.
00:50:54.280 Yeah, well, okay.
00:50:56.840 I guess we do have to worry
00:50:57.760 about that in a poll.
00:51:07.280 Tires expire in 10 years
00:51:08.860 with dry rot.
00:51:11.260 We admitted to the bio labs.
00:51:13.040 They are ours.
00:51:15.700 Somebody says.
00:51:17.140 But, you know, I don't know.
00:51:19.000 I heard somebody else say that
00:51:20.580 every university has a bio lab.
00:51:22.980 Is that true?
00:51:25.900 So, could it be that bio labs
00:51:27.640 are fairly common
00:51:28.560 and it doesn't really mean
00:51:29.660 much of anything?
00:51:32.300 Yeah, what's in the trucks?
00:51:34.640 I do wonder about that.
00:51:36.620 All right, that's all I got for now.
00:51:37.820 And I'm going to go do some other stuff
00:51:39.680 because that's the kind of guy I am.
00:51:41.920 And I will talk to you all
00:51:43.160 later.
00:51:43.980 Later.