Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1678 Scott Adams： How Russia and Ukraine Can Make a Deal

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of civilization itself.

00:00:10.800 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, probably the best thing you've ever experienced, and

00:00:16.360 it can get better.

00:00:17.760 Yeah, amazing, but it can.

00:00:20.900 And all you need is a copper, a mug, a glass, a tanker, a chalice, a stein, a canteen, a

00:00:24.600 jug, a flask, a vessel of any kind, filling with your favorite liquid.

00:00:30.000 I like coffee.

00:00:32.080 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day thing that makes

00:00:36.460 everything better.

00:00:38.500 Except, apparently, the Ukraine war, but we're going to fix that later.

00:00:42.880 Go.

00:00:47.940 Ah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yep.

00:00:52.240 That's exactly what I was looking for.

00:00:54.220 I like to start the day with one thing that goes perfectly.

00:01:00.000 And I like to say that that went perfectly.

00:01:02.380 And, again, if you can take a compliment without being too embarrassed, I think you look fabulous

00:01:10.340 today.

00:01:12.300 A little bit sexier than even yesterday, and yesterday was kind of a high point, so good

00:01:16.520 for you.

00:01:17.380 Whatever you're doing, keep it up.

00:01:18.920 I think you've been exercising, probably watching your diet.

00:01:23.100 And I think your hair looks fantastic, too.

00:01:27.180 Well, in my local shithole of town, it will be the last day of masking in schools.

00:01:35.580 So, let me just put this in perspective.

00:01:44.000 Today, all the school kids in my town will go to school, and they will all wear masks.

00:01:51.040 Do you know why?

00:01:51.740 They will have masks on today because the science says that that would help.

00:01:58.420 Over the weekend, the science will be flipping, and on Monday, it will be safe to not wear masks.

00:02:06.100 But today, God help anybody who takes their mask off today, because that's somebody who doesn't

00:02:14.560 understand science, because the science is completely different on a Thursday.

00:02:21.900 There's no school on Friday locally, so in case you're confused about the days.

00:02:26.020 So, yes, but while today is a dangerous, dangerous day for a child, it's dangerous out there, children.

00:02:33.700 Put on your masks.

00:02:35.280 But sometime around midnight on Sunday, the science flips.

00:02:43.740 Sort of like, have you heard that the north and south poles, the magnetic poles, they might

00:02:49.700 flip?

00:02:50.500 It's exactly like that, except with all of the variables different.

00:02:56.020 That's how analogies work.

00:02:59.380 And so, I would be really proud of any kid who took their mask off today and said, are

00:03:08.260 you teaching us science, or are you teaching us superstition?

00:03:14.500 Because make your argument that the science is going to be different on Monday, Mr. Teacher.

00:03:20.300 Hey, Mr. Science Teacher.

00:03:22.600 How about this?

00:03:23.680 Can you imagine going into your science class in high school?

00:03:27.680 Science class.

00:03:29.360 Take your mask off.

00:03:30.400 Your teacher says, oh, put your mask back on.

00:03:32.580 You say, I'd be happy to.

00:03:34.060 You put it back on.

00:03:35.480 You say, I was just wondering, since we're in science class, would it be inappropriate

00:03:39.680 to ask if the science will be changing between now and Monday?

00:03:43.280 Just to see what your science teacher says about all the science.

00:03:51.140 Well, I guess United Airlines is talking about dropping vaccine mandates for employees.

00:03:59.020 That's good.

00:03:59.420 So, I think one by one, we'll see these mandates falling away.

00:04:03.640 I'm not too worried about a permanent loss of freedom.

00:04:07.580 And in this country, I don't think we're going to see some kind of a general social credit

00:04:13.740 passport.

00:04:14.520 I don't think it'll happen in this country.

00:04:16.200 But I don't think anybody needs it.

00:04:18.460 Because if everybody lives online, you can kind of see everything about anybody you want

00:04:24.740 to see anyway.

00:04:26.420 So, I'm not sure that that would even make a difference.

00:04:30.080 So, tell me, am I wrong that the media always needs some famous person to tie to every story

00:04:37.240 to give it a little seasoning?

00:04:38.920 So, it doesn't matter what the topic is in politics or in the world.

00:04:45.260 It's got to be about Trump, Joe Rogan, or Elon Musk.

00:04:49.940 Am I right?

00:04:51.580 Like, every story has to be seasoned with a provocative, powerful male figure.

00:05:00.600 Somebody that you can love or hate, but boy, that's the element you want to talk about.

00:05:06.760 You want to talk about what Trump said about it, or what Joe Rogan said about it, or what

00:05:12.920 Elon Musk did about it or said about it.

00:05:15.560 That's what matters.

00:05:17.240 And we're, yeah, I guess it's just an observation about how the business model works.

00:05:24.880 If you want clicks, you've got to put a person on it.

00:05:28.040 Let me give you one of the most important persuasion tips of all time.

00:05:34.100 Are you ready?

00:05:34.460 Best persuasion tip of all time.

00:05:39.360 Well, it's right up there.

00:05:41.340 Years ago, I was asked to draw some Dilbert art to be considered, and I emphasize to be

00:05:49.740 considered for, being on the cover of Newsweek, back when Newsweek was a big thing in a popular

00:05:56.140 magazine.

00:05:56.540 And they said to me, we haven't decided if Dilbert will be on the cover, because the

00:06:03.700 other possibility we're looking at is a human model, probably a female model, who is doing 0.99

00:06:09.920 something and is just a generic model being photographed doing something that tells a story.

00:06:14.460 Or it would be a Dilbert comic.

00:06:19.660 Now, do you know what I said?

00:06:20.860 I said, so you're asking me to completely waste my time.

00:06:26.560 And whoever I was talking to said, what?

00:06:31.080 Right.

00:06:31.560 You want me to compete against a live human model, then they're going to do a test on

00:06:38.720 it.

00:06:38.860 I guess they test covers before they ran.

00:06:40.820 They do a little test on it.

00:06:42.420 And you think that the more people would buy a comic, a Dilbert, like Dilbert's face on

00:06:47.580 the comic.

00:06:47.900 You think more people would buy that magazine than a human, attractive female on the cover? 1.00

00:06:53.780 And I said, you're completely wasting my time.

00:06:56.260 Because, you know, at the time I knew a lot about Persuasion already.

00:07:00.220 But because I'd worked with Newsweek before and the people who were asking, you know, I

00:07:06.160 had respect for, I did it anyway.

00:07:09.640 It was a complete waste of time.

00:07:11.920 Because they tested the two covers and the one with the attractive female on it sold like

00:07:16.640 crazy.

00:07:17.020 In tests. 0.74

00:07:19.540 And, of course, that's the one they picked.

00:07:22.220 Now, extend this to products that have been very successful.

00:07:30.560 Let me give you the name of a product that's been very successful.

00:07:34.460 Facebook, now called Meta.

00:07:36.920 What made Facebook predictably successful?

00:07:41.660 It was about faces.

00:07:43.580 Human faces, especially female. 0.82

00:07:45.220 All right.

00:07:46.720 It started out as almost sort of a dating site workaround for Zuckerberg in college.

00:07:52.500 Anything with faces, especially female faces, is going to be popular.

00:07:58.580 Instagram, female faces.

00:08:00.740 So, almost anything that's got lots of female faces on it, if you can figure out some way

00:08:06.680 to make that make sense with your product, you're going to sell more.

00:08:10.520 Why does Sports Illustrated have a swimsuit model issue?

00:08:14.600 Well, that doesn't even make any sense.

00:08:16.440 Having a swimsuit issue in a sports magazine?

00:08:20.040 How did that even become a thing?

00:08:22.380 It's because people buy more magazines as a female on it. 1.00

00:08:26.280 That's it.

00:08:26.640 So, it's not an accident that these news stories are often paired with a famous person.

00:08:32.900 It might be a coincidence that they're usually male, or maybe it's because of the patriarchy

00:08:37.200 or something like that.

00:08:38.420 I don't know.

00:08:39.220 I don't know if it matters that they're male or female.

00:08:41.800 It just seems like lately they've been male.

00:08:43.820 All right, DuckDuckGo, CEO, has announced that he says he's sickened by Russia's invasion

00:08:53.920 of Ukraine, and at DuckDuckGo, they've been rolling out search updates that downrank sites

00:09:00.640 associated with Russian disinformation.

00:09:04.380 Now, as you know, DuckDuckGo is most famous for being a search engine alternative that doesn't

00:09:11.560 rig the results.

00:09:13.820 It just lets the natural results come out.

00:09:17.980 But they're saying now that they will rig the results if they believe that it's for the

00:09:24.400 benefit of, let's say, reducing Russian disinformation about the war in Ukraine.

00:09:31.540 What do you feel about that?

00:09:32.920 Do you believe that any search engine company should ever change their search results to match

00:09:42.940 their politics?

00:09:43.820 It seems like a mistake.

00:09:48.540 Now, what I saw was just a tag that says something was associated with Russian media, which I'm

00:09:55.540 okay with.

00:09:56.920 Are you okay with that?

00:09:58.780 If they just tag it, Twitter does this too.

00:10:00.820 So one of the people who tweets with me all the time, Chen, who I imagine has some association

00:10:08.780 with the Chinese government, but he denies it.

00:10:11.700 He denies it.

00:10:12.700 So Chen gets a little automatic Twitter note that says he's associated with Chinese state media, and I think DuckDuckGo wants to do something like that with RT, Russia Today, and some of those medias.

00:10:28.140 But I don't know how you can make this work, right?

00:10:31.660 I feel like as soon as you take that first step, what do you do?

00:10:39.380 What do you do?

00:10:40.980 Like, we have a lot of problems like this lately.

00:10:43.380 I was hearing Gottfeld saying this yesterday about Ukraine.

00:10:47.580 You know, what do you do?

00:10:49.500 Like, I'm looking for good ideas.

00:10:52.280 I don't have one.

00:10:53.660 Nobody seems to have one, so what do you do?

00:10:55.720 All right.

00:10:59.020 I'm okay with adding tags to stuff, because I think people are sophisticated enough to deal with that.

00:11:06.640 But you do have to ask yourself, can't we identify media platforms in this country that are just telling you state-run, basically the state program?

00:11:21.440 I mean, does NBC tell you independent news?

00:11:25.720 Do they?

00:11:27.180 Or is CNN?

00:11:28.900 Is that independent news, or is that just state-sanctioned Democrat news or CIA news?

00:11:35.540 I don't know.

00:11:36.200 I mean, we have our suspicions.

00:11:38.560 I don't know.

00:11:41.160 So I don't think there's any way you can ever really even meet the bar that you set for yourself if you were going to get rid of state-run media or state-controlled media.

00:11:52.820 How do you even define it?

00:11:54.180 I mean, some of it is clearly obvious, all right?

00:11:57.700 I would say that RT is obvious.

00:12:01.640 So, okay.

00:12:03.000 But what about NBC?

00:12:05.320 I would say that's obvious.

00:12:06.840 But I'm not the CEO of DuckDuckGo, so...

00:12:10.900 And what if it is obvious?

00:12:13.860 Can you start downgrading NBC to a largely American audience of users?

00:12:21.360 I don't know.

00:12:21.840 They might ask some questions.

00:12:22.840 I don't know what to think about the celebrities who are saying that we should all pay more at the gas pump and everything will be fine if we just pay more at the gas pump.

00:12:37.580 But the all-time most tone-deaf, and usually I wouldn't even talk about a story like this, but it's just so outrageous.

00:12:45.720 So this is as Stephen Colbert said.

00:12:49.700 Today, the average gas price in America hit an all-time record high of over $4 per gallon.

00:12:57.320 Okay, that stings, but a clean conscience is worth a buck or two.

00:13:01.540 And then he said, it's important.

00:13:06.100 It's important.

00:13:07.360 I'm willing to pay $4 a gallon.

00:13:09.700 Hell, I'll pay $15 a gallon because I drive a Tesla, Colbert said.

00:13:18.280 He's saying he doesn't mind if you pay more for gas because not only does he not pay for gas, he's so rich he has a Tesla.

00:13:25.620 Because, you know, Tesla's not so cheap.

00:13:27.720 So, I'm not even sure that tone-deaf even covers this, does it?

00:13:38.680 That is a serious, jerky thing to say in public.

00:13:44.040 Unbelievable.

00:13:45.720 Speaking of people who once were worthy of respect, but maybe not so much anymore.

00:13:53.980 AOC, okay, maybe you didn't respect her, but I did.

00:13:58.080 She's really quiet about the price of gas lately.

00:14:01.920 And the progressives are all, you know, this would all be fixed if you did some more impractical things,

00:14:09.100 such as instantly add lots of green technology that works all day long.

00:14:15.380 How about getting right on that, instantly adding some economical green technology that works all day long and at night,

00:14:21.780 whether the wind blows or not?

00:14:22.860 So, I think AOC started out with a sort of hyperbolic opinion that I could support.

00:14:33.220 I mean, I could support it as a, let's say, as a technique, not as a political policy.

00:14:38.480 But I could support her saying, you know, hey, we're all going to come to doom if we don't do something about climate change.

00:14:45.620 Sure, it was extreme, but, you know, that's how you get stuffed up.

00:14:50.300 I don't complain when Trump says outrageously hyperbolic things, if it works, you know,

00:14:56.640 if it gets you in the direction of someplace you want to go.

00:14:59.240 But, unfortunately, the current situation with gas prices and energy makes AOC not look like a clever operator

00:15:10.640 who's using hyperbole in exactly the right effective way. 1.00

00:15:15.400 No, she looks a little bit stupid. 1.00

00:15:20.760 This is a tough place for her to be. 1.00

00:15:22.980 I've got a feeling she's going to disappear for a while.

00:15:25.180 Because if she puts her head up about any issue in public, somebody's going to ask her about gas prices. 0.98

00:15:34.140 She basically has to hide it until gas gets under $4 a gallon again, doesn't she? 1.00

00:15:39.700 Am I right? 0.99

00:15:41.320 The best thing about having gas at $4 an hour is it makes AOC shut the fuck up. 0.99

00:15:51.500 Because that's exactly what it did. 0.97

00:15:53.240 You know, you were complaining about gas prices being too high until I told you one of the benefits.

00:16:00.120 It makes AOC stop saying things in public.

00:16:04.040 Am I right?

00:16:05.120 I'm right.

00:16:06.880 All right.

00:16:07.700 But I don't think we can ignore that rising gas prices are insanely expensive.

00:16:15.520 At the same time that gas prices are up, employers are telling people to come back to work and stop working at home.

00:16:23.240 What do you think of that?

00:16:24.640 Don't you think employers should maybe say, yes, if working for homework during the pandemic, maybe it should still work?

00:16:33.020 Maybe it should still work.

00:16:35.780 At least for a while.

00:16:38.120 Somebody says, bad idea?

00:16:39.340 Yeah, well, you should work remotely and save money, right?

00:16:44.600 So you can save even more money by working remotely.

00:16:49.900 So Russia has confirmed using a thermobarbaric weapon.

00:16:55.940 I literally almost said a thermobarbaric weapon.

00:17:00.760 Like, that would have been pretty clever, but it wouldn't have been planned. 0.94

00:17:03.520 So their thermobarbaric weapon, which apparently is hellacious, like it sucks the oxygen out of the area and your lungs catch on fire or you're filled with liquid or some damn thing.

00:17:16.340 But it's not a good way to go, as if any of them are.

00:17:20.760 But I guess it's banned by the Geneva Convention to be used on civilians, but apparently they do get used on military targets.

00:17:32.700 Apparently the United States, can you confirm this?

00:17:35.300 The United States uses these bombs, right?

00:17:37.900 But on military targets, we say.

00:17:41.040 The mother of all bombs is one of those.

00:17:43.820 Yeah, so used in Afghanistan.

00:17:44.760 So here's my question.

00:17:50.900 Imagine if Russia had never been a major arms dealer.

00:17:57.460 One of the precedents that Putin sets by being a major arms dealer is that selling weapons to somebody isn't the same as being in the fight.

00:18:10.060 Right?

00:18:10.260 That's Russia's own, that's the standard that they set.

00:18:15.900 It's their own standard.

00:18:17.440 Because remember, they gave lots of MiGs and stuff to North Korea, I'm sorry, to North Vietnam.

00:18:24.680 So Russia has a long history of giving pretty serious weapons to other countries, including countries that were, at least the Soviet Union, countries that were on the other side from us.

00:18:37.400 So if the standard is set that, hey, I'm just selling weapons, I'm not in the fight, that's Russia's own standard.

00:18:48.660 Why are we walking away from their own standard?

00:18:52.520 Because before they would launch a nuclear weapon, let's say the U.S. got some MiGs from some NATO country and got it into the country in Ukraine.

00:19:04.220 Let's say that happened.

00:19:06.780 Would Putin then launch an immediate surprise nuclear attack?

00:19:12.500 Not likely.

00:19:14.140 Like, he'd talk about it first, right?

00:19:16.660 Wouldn't he talk about it first, as in, if you don't get those planes out of there, I will nuke you?

00:19:22.360 I mean, don't you think there'd be a little bit of warning?

00:19:25.220 Right?

00:19:25.640 Now, what would be the response to that?

00:19:30.320 The response should be, Russia, can you explain your standard? 0.57

00:19:35.900 Mr. Putin, in fact, actually, we should do this today.

00:19:39.220 We should ask Putin to define their standard for military sales.

00:19:45.260 What standard does Russia use to decide what kinds of weapons to sell to whom?

00:19:50.040 Ask them for a public statement of their standard, and then use it.

00:19:56.860 Because their standard is they'll sell anything to anybody who'll buy it, right?

00:20:01.700 I'll bet.

00:20:03.000 I'll bet they don't use any kind of other standard.

00:20:06.160 And if they tried to say that they have some standard like that, it would just be laughable.

00:20:10.440 But I think that you should put them on the spot.

00:20:12.940 I think we should directly ask Putin and Lavrov.

00:20:16.720 You know, Lavrov's in public.

00:20:17.800 He gets asked questions in public.

00:20:19.820 Ask him specifically, what is Russia's policy of what kind of weapons to sell or provide?

00:20:27.260 And does that make them a combatant? 0.97

00:20:30.240 And then use that standard to put any fucking weapon you want into Ukraine, if that's what you want to do. 0.97

00:20:36.140 I'm not sure that's what we want to do, but at least be smart about it. 0.97

00:20:40.940 So I don't think that we should be tiptoeing about what weapons we put in there.

00:20:48.500 However, I do think that there's some weight to the argument that adding some MIGs to the mix wouldn't fix anything.

00:20:55.740 What do you think?

00:20:56.940 I don't think adding those MIGs would have made any difference. 1.00

00:20:59.400 Do you?

00:21:01.520 I feel like it wouldn't.

00:21:02.860 Compare adding MIGs to adding drones, right?

00:21:09.920 Would you rather add drones or add MIGs?

00:21:12.200 To me, it's no question.

00:21:13.820 I'd take the drone every time, wouldn't you?

00:21:15.700 And what about the handheld stingers and anti-tank stuff?

00:21:28.920 How many anti-tank and anti-aircraft handheld weapons do you have to get into the hands of Ukrainians, 1.00

00:21:37.760 who I understand, I understand from Ukrainians themselves, they're very, I won't say warlike,

00:21:46.500 but they're unusually brave.

00:21:51.880 I'm not even sure what the word is.

00:21:54.400 But apparently you don't want to mess with Ukrainians. 1.00

00:21:58.060 Am I right?

00:21:59.280 It's like you don't want to mess with anybody in Afghanistan because it's not going to work out for you. 0.98

00:22:04.380 It's just not going to work out.

00:22:05.580 But apparently that seems to be somewhat true with the Ukrainians.

00:22:10.560 If anything we're hearing about people coming into Ukraine to fight is true, 0.98

00:22:15.020 they also came into Afghanistan, I guess.

00:22:19.200 Yeah, we'll talk about the Nazis separately.

00:22:22.760 I see your comments.

00:22:24.600 All right.

00:22:26.120 Here's a question I have.

00:22:27.460 How far can a Turkish drone fly?

00:22:30.140 In the comments, can a drone launched from Ukraine reach Moscow?

00:22:40.180 Yes or no?

00:22:41.800 Can a drone launched from Ukraine, I'm saying almost all no's.

00:22:47.420 So then what is the, no, it's not a setup for a joke.

00:22:53.580 All no's, really.

00:22:55.640 Well, I'm talking about a one-way trip.

00:22:59.180 In case you're wondering, yes, I'm talking about a one-way trip.

00:23:02.140 So I'm seeing some yeses and some no's.

00:23:05.980 I'll bet the yeses are right on this.

00:23:07.840 All right, what's the distance to Moscow from Kiev?

00:23:14.140 What's the distance from Kiev to Moscow first?

00:23:16.980 And then give me the distance for the miles.

00:23:20.920 469 miles is the distance to Moscow.

00:23:26.060 And then, but the range is about 1,000 miles.

00:23:30.500 All right, well, I don't know.

00:23:31.540 No, don't know.

00:23:39.940 Global Hawk drone, that's a different kind.

00:23:44.680 Well, it's interesting that we don't have an instant answer on that.

00:23:49.700 I have such a well-informed audience here,

00:23:52.060 usually I get an answer faster.

00:23:53.760 But I think the answer is yes.

00:23:57.480 If you're reading the comments the way I am,

00:23:59.680 it looks like more likely yes than no,

00:24:02.840 but I'm not going to bet on it.

00:24:05.760 And here's the question.

00:24:06.680 At what point can Kiev start bombing Moscow?

00:24:13.600 Now, I suppose if they did,

00:24:16.060 all hell would break out in Ukraine. 0.90

00:24:18.640 So that would get pretty bad.

00:24:20.120 But I'm wondering about it as a communication mechanism.

00:24:26.240 Because apparently the Russian public

00:24:28.700 has a completely different idea of what's going on.

00:24:33.800 And I'm not suggesting it, by the way.

00:24:35.920 Let me be clear.

00:24:37.640 When I talk about military action in Ukraine or Russia,

00:24:42.220 I need some witnesses,

00:24:44.400 just so it doesn't look like I'm backtracking later.

00:24:47.320 I'm never recommending it.

00:24:49.900 Is that clear?

00:24:50.860 If I say, if somebody did this,

00:24:53.820 it looks like it would work,

00:24:55.440 that's not me recommending they do it.

00:24:57.820 I'm just working through what is likely to happen,

00:25:00.200 what would work, that sort of thing.

00:25:01.480 More about predicting where it's going.

00:25:04.040 So think of me as predicting where it's going,

00:25:06.000 not recommending any particular action.

00:25:08.400 Because if you ask me what to do,

00:25:11.220 I have no suggestion.

00:25:14.020 Well, I will give you a suggestion in a little while,

00:25:15.820 but I think all suggestions

00:25:17.300 have a low chance of working at this point.

00:25:19.120 All right.

00:25:23.100 Rasmussen asked this question in poll.

00:25:26.660 Would Russia have invaded Ukraine 0.88

00:25:28.760 if Trump had been president?

00:25:31.180 46% of U.S. voters said no.

00:25:34.520 38% said yes.

00:25:36.720 What do you think?

00:25:46.640 What do you think?

00:25:49.120 I think no.

00:25:53.540 Yeah, I think no.

00:25:56.480 There's no way to, of course,

00:25:58.460 there's no way to predict that.

00:26:00.740 But that's my instinct.

00:26:02.420 And I would feel fairly confident.

00:26:05.940 Fairly confident.

00:26:07.780 And no.

00:26:09.580 All right.

00:26:10.660 Rasmussen also asked,

00:26:12.580 who do you trust more to handle U.S. national security,

00:26:16.680 Republicans or Democrats?

00:26:17.940 And by the same,

00:26:20.440 almost the same percentages,

00:26:22.020 46% trusted Republicans.

00:26:25.860 Now, that's not too far from just the number of Republicans

00:26:29.500 plus independents who are really Republicans, right?

00:26:32.820 So, basically,

00:26:34.780 that's people who are Republicans

00:26:35.980 or Republican-ish saying they trust themselves.

00:26:39.560 So, I'm not sure that's telling us much.

00:26:44.160 And then, yeah.

00:26:48.100 All right.

00:26:48.780 Here's my one suggestion on solving Ukraine and Russia. 0.97

00:26:53.960 Are you ready?

00:26:54.320 So, I'm going to talk generically about how you handle,

00:26:59.860 how you fix an unfixable problem.

00:27:02.900 So, Russia is unfixable 0.99

00:27:04.180 because, you know,

00:27:06.220 Putin got himself in a position where he can't lose,

00:27:09.540 but maybe he can't win.

00:27:11.920 At least not win in a way that he doesn't lose more than he wins.

00:27:15.680 So, Putin is trapped

00:27:18.600 and Zelensky doesn't have a way, really,

00:27:21.880 to win the war, per se,

00:27:24.320 and he's not willing to lose.

00:27:27.500 And apparently, as long as they get funding,

00:27:29.220 they'll probably eat K-rations 1.00

00:27:31.200 and shoot at people forever. 0.91

00:27:35.160 So, you've got an unfixable problem, 0.99

00:27:37.400 which could turn nuclear,

00:27:39.100 so it's got all kinds of upside risks,

00:27:41.220 downside risks, I guess.

00:27:42.640 What do you do?

00:27:43.400 Okay, here's the generic things you can do.

00:27:47.640 Number one, you can shake the box.

00:27:50.480 You introduce a new variable or variables

00:27:53.160 that just change everything,

00:27:56.640 and then you see if that makes a difference.

00:27:59.460 If that doesn't work, you just shake the box again,

00:28:02.060 and just keep shaking it

00:28:03.280 until there's something different enough

00:28:05.520 that you can make a deal.

00:28:08.660 The other version of shaking the box

00:28:11.100 is adding more rocks.

00:28:14.400 Because right now, we've got a deadlock,

00:28:19.840 but it's a deadlock that involves

00:28:21.860 only the variables for this topic, largely.

00:28:25.860 The more variables for other topics

00:28:28.960 that you can throw in there,

00:28:30.780 the more likely you can get a good result.

00:28:33.460 Meaning that, in the beginning,

00:28:35.680 you want to keep a deal simple.

00:28:37.820 Like, what's the simplest deal we could make?

00:28:39.580 You stop fighting,

00:28:41.400 and we'll stop fighting.

00:28:42.520 You know, something really simple.

00:28:44.640 But if simple doesn't work,

00:28:46.200 and it's not going to work in this situation,

00:28:48.360 then your only other thing to do

00:28:50.520 is not just keep trying to do the same thing

00:28:53.240 that doesn't work,

00:28:54.740 but you're going to have to throw some new variables in there.

00:28:56.740 And you need to go big.

00:29:00.300 And this is something that a Trump could do

00:29:02.460 that I don't think a Biden can do,

00:29:05.100 is think big enough.

00:29:07.260 I think Trump had the ability to think so big

00:29:09.780 that you couldn't quite wrap your head around it right away.

00:29:13.400 Like, build the wall.

00:29:15.680 Build the wall is just too big.

00:29:18.140 Like, you can't build that wall.

00:29:20.300 There's thousands of miles.

00:29:22.240 You know, how are you going to get a wall that will be,

00:29:24.400 you know...

00:29:24.900 So basically, Trump is the expert

00:29:26.960 of saying things that are impossible to do.

00:29:29.240 They're so big.

00:29:30.720 And that just changes everybody's thinking.

00:29:33.200 So it changed how we thought about,

00:29:35.020 you know, border security,

00:29:37.020 with or without an actual physical wall.

00:29:39.200 It changed how we thought about it.

00:29:40.520 It made it a higher priority.

00:29:41.480 And so that's sort of a Trump-specific skill

00:29:45.840 to go so big

00:29:47.300 that it actually changes how you think about things.

00:29:50.840 Right?

00:29:51.000 It's not just a little variable you throw in there.

00:29:53.080 It just changes the whole way you think about it.

00:29:56.600 Here's how I would do it with Russia. 0.92

00:29:59.300 I would explicitly offer them a deal

00:30:01.900 to be our friend and not China's. 0.98

00:30:05.020 In public.

00:30:07.120 In public.

00:30:08.420 I'd say, look, here's the deal.

00:30:09.560 So, instead of thinking of this

00:30:12.000 as a Ukraine-Russia problem,

00:30:14.860 let's think of this

00:30:15.720 as about the future of civilization problem.

00:30:19.340 Let's recognize that Ukraine,

00:30:21.500 as bad as it is, and it's horrible,

00:30:23.840 is only a small part of a larger picture.

00:30:27.180 And if we don't fix the larger picture,

00:30:28.900 we'll have infinite Ukraines. 0.94

00:30:31.060 Nobody wants that.

00:30:32.520 And so the deal should be something like this.

00:30:35.260 And when I say something like it,

00:30:36.820 I only mean this big.

00:30:39.560 Number one,

00:30:42.520 agreeing to some kind of deal

00:30:44.180 for neutrality,

00:30:46.560 not for Ukraine,

00:30:48.140 so you make it bigger.

00:30:50.000 You try to reach a deal

00:30:51.840 that countries can declare neutrality,

00:30:56.720 and the entire world will support them.

00:30:59.500 So you don't say this is about Ukraine.

00:31:01.600 You say this is about all the other countries.

00:31:03.340 It's about Taiwan.

00:31:04.180 It's about everybody.

00:31:06.800 That if you haven't been attacked yet,

00:31:11.020 and you've got a country,

00:31:13.380 that just everybody will support you.

00:31:15.520 There won't be any exceptions to it.

00:31:17.980 Now, of course, China would have a problem with that,

00:31:19.720 but that's China's problem.

00:31:21.640 So what if you said to Russia,

00:31:22.880 here's the deal.

00:31:24.180 If you stop hacking us

00:31:26.820 and doing every bad thing

00:31:28.720 that you do to us,

00:31:29.380 if you stop interfering,

00:31:30.980 we will add you to the team.

00:31:33.260 We will make sure that Putin 1.00

00:31:34.700 looks like the greatest leader

00:31:36.080 Russia has ever had. 0.78

00:31:37.900 We will make it look like

00:31:39.380 the Ukraine thing was a success,

00:31:41.800 but we'll say that the success

00:31:43.660 was controlling those independent

00:31:46.040 Russia regions,

00:31:48.480 keeping Crimea,

00:31:49.320 which was going to happen anyway.

00:31:50.380 So basically,

00:31:52.000 give Putin a win,

00:31:54.420 but tie it to really big future stuff

00:31:58.640 in which Russia has to move into our orbit 0.71

00:32:01.860 and vice versa,

00:32:03.580 and away from China.

00:32:06.860 Now, could Russia do that?

00:32:09.780 Probably not.

00:32:11.880 Probably not.

00:32:13.560 But it's more of an example

00:32:15.200 of the size of it.

00:32:17.800 You know?

00:32:18.460 And maybe you say,

00:32:19.840 look,

00:32:20.760 here's the deal.

00:32:22.640 We want two things

00:32:23.780 that the world has to agree

00:32:24.940 are permanent.

00:32:26.460 One is

00:32:28.020 the major countries

00:32:29.420 always have access

00:32:30.560 to,

00:32:31.760 let's say,

00:32:32.440 pipelines

00:32:32.940 and ports.

00:32:37.200 How about that?

00:32:38.820 So the major powers

00:32:40.180 always must have access,

00:32:42.400 permanent access,

00:32:43.760 for pipelines,

00:32:44.980 trade,

00:32:46.380 roads,

00:32:46.960 and ports.

00:32:47.940 Period.

00:32:48.160 But the trade-off

00:32:50.600 is that a country

00:32:51.280 like Ukraine 0.92

00:32:51.960 who wants to

00:32:52.720 legitimately say

00:32:53.780 we're going to be

00:32:54.960 demilitarizing

00:32:56.440 and we're going to be independent,

00:32:58.600 they get all the support

00:33:00.060 in the world

00:33:00.540 as well.

00:33:02.600 That's the trade-off.

00:33:03.680 The Nazis are still 0.96

00:33:08.980 going to be a problem

00:33:09.460 to deal with?

00:33:10.200 Yeah.

00:33:10.960 I don't know if that's

00:33:11.980 anybody's biggest problem

00:33:13.160 there, though.

00:33:16.840 Logistics,

00:33:17.440 who enforces it?

00:33:19.900 You know,

00:33:20.560 there are lots of things

00:33:21.400 to work out.

00:33:22.180 But the point is,

00:33:23.020 is there something

00:33:23.700 that Putin could get out

00:33:25.520 of this

00:33:25.900 that's bigger

00:33:26.540 than anything

00:33:27.260 he hoped for?

00:33:28.020 And I don't know,

00:33:29.620 but I'll bet

00:33:29.960 we could promise

00:33:30.580 him something.

00:33:31.860 I'll bet we could

00:33:32.540 promise Putin

00:33:33.320 something's bigger,

00:33:34.380 a bigger win

00:33:35.120 than he had even

00:33:36.420 imagined he could get.

00:33:38.640 But it would have

00:33:39.440 to be in return

00:33:40.220 for a permanent

00:33:41.800 friendship deal,

00:33:43.900 just a permanent

00:33:44.720 friendship deal,

00:33:46.000 if there's any way

00:33:48.220 to do it.

00:33:49.120 Now,

00:33:49.520 I suppose there is

00:33:50.300 a cultural

00:33:51.480 element here

00:33:53.600 that I don't

00:33:54.240 appreciate,

00:33:54.900 which is,

00:33:57.400 can Russians

00:33:58.040 ever stop

00:33:58.800 trying to

00:33:59.560 overpower

00:34:00.180 their neighbors?

00:34:02.540 And I think

00:34:03.300 that's a real question.

00:34:04.920 Is there something

00:34:05.740 baked into the culture

00:34:07.000 that says,

00:34:09.280 if I can conquer

00:34:09.980 this little country

00:34:10.880 next to me,

00:34:12.040 why wouldn't I?

00:34:14.080 Is that just

00:34:14.760 part of the culture?

00:34:16.280 I don't know.

00:34:17.240 If it is,

00:34:17.840 maybe there's

00:34:18.220 nothing you can do.

00:34:21.060 Can Americans?

00:34:22.400 Yeah.

00:34:23.260 I don't think

00:34:24.240 the American

00:34:25.000 personality

00:34:25.880 is such

00:34:26.400 that we need

00:34:26.920 to conquer

00:34:27.340 anything at this

00:34:28.180 point.

00:34:29.660 At this point.

00:34:33.060 All right,

00:34:33.620 well,

00:34:33.760 that's the big

00:34:34.120 question.

00:34:36.480 Apparently,

00:34:37.080 China is backing 0.98

00:34:37.840 Russia's propaganda

00:34:38.940 domestically,

00:34:39.860 so the Chinese 0.99

00:34:40.880 audience is hearing

00:34:41.900 Russia's version 0.63

00:34:43.060 of things.

00:34:44.120 Great.

00:34:45.140 So that does

00:34:45.860 a further indication

00:34:46.980 that China and

00:34:48.160 Russia are in bed 0.76

00:34:49.120 together.

00:34:50.400 Are you following

00:34:51.060 the story about

00:34:51.720 the bio labs

00:34:52.620 in Ukraine?

00:34:54.240 So we got

00:34:55.000 some ambiguous

00:34:55.620 information about

00:34:56.740 there might be

00:34:57.240 some kind of

00:34:57.740 U.S.

00:34:59.700 associated

00:35:00.140 bio labs

00:35:01.320 in Ukraine.

00:35:02.520 Well,

00:35:02.800 the Department

00:35:03.200 of State

00:35:03.640 said this

00:35:05.080 in a statement.

00:35:07.000 The United States

00:35:07.860 does not have

00:35:08.920 chemical and

00:35:09.600 biological weapons

00:35:10.720 labs in Ukraine.

00:35:14.800 Let's parse

00:35:15.680 that sentence

00:35:16.220 a little bit.

00:35:17.700 I'll read it again.

00:35:18.740 The United States

00:35:19.740 does not have

00:35:20.840 chemical and

00:35:21.700 biological weapons

00:35:22.800 labs in Ukraine.

00:35:24.240 Well,

00:35:26.580 there are a few

00:35:27.340 things that this

00:35:28.000 does not cover.

00:35:30.200 It does not

00:35:31.120 cover a chemical

00:35:33.040 lab that's

00:35:33.940 separate from

00:35:34.480 the biological

00:35:35.120 lab.

00:35:36.780 Is there such

00:35:37.660 a thing as a

00:35:38.300 chemical and

00:35:39.060 biological weapons

00:35:40.120 lab?

00:35:40.920 Because the thing

00:35:41.600 they said they

00:35:42.040 don't have has

00:35:43.520 an and in it.

00:35:44.680 We don't have

00:35:45.320 a chemical and

00:35:46.160 biological weapons,

00:35:47.180 but do you have

00:35:49.200 a chemical lab

00:35:50.120 and do you

00:35:50.780 separately have

00:35:51.580 a weapons lab?

00:35:53.500 Or do you

00:35:54.200 just call them

00:35:54.940 different things?

00:35:56.820 Do you have

00:35:57.460 a different name

00:35:58.080 for them?

00:35:59.800 Do you call

00:36:00.300 them research

00:36:01.340 facilities and

00:36:02.220 not labs?

00:36:06.200 It says the

00:36:07.060 United States

00:36:07.560 does not have

00:36:08.260 them in Ukraine.

00:36:09.500 Does that mean

00:36:10.080 the United States

00:36:10.740 hasn't funded

00:36:11.720 somebody who has

00:36:12.820 one?

00:36:13.080 It doesn't

00:36:14.340 say anything

00:36:14.740 about funding

00:36:16.000 one.

00:36:19.160 It doesn't

00:36:19.960 say we had

00:36:20.900 one until

00:36:21.360 last week.

00:36:22.560 Did we have

00:36:23.300 any until

00:36:23.840 last week?

00:36:25.420 Did we just

00:36:26.180 close them

00:36:26.760 yesterday?

00:36:27.940 Because it's a

00:36:28.560 little bit

00:36:28.900 silent on

00:36:30.080 whether we

00:36:31.060 ever had

00:36:31.620 them.

00:36:36.220 So I

00:36:37.060 would say

00:36:37.440 that the

00:36:37.960 specificity

00:36:39.260 with which

00:36:39.880 they have

00:36:40.300 denied this

00:36:40.960 is very

00:36:42.000 sketchy.

00:36:43.540 Very

00:36:44.020 sketchy.

00:36:45.440 Wouldn't

00:36:45.720 you say?

00:36:47.540 Now I

00:36:48.260 don't think

00:36:48.620 this is a

00:36:49.100 real story

00:36:50.660 or a big

00:36:51.160 story.

00:36:52.680 I think

00:36:53.580 this is

00:36:53.920 mostly a

00:36:54.480 fake story.

00:36:55.680 I don't

00:36:56.040 think there's

00:36:56.500 necessarily

00:36:57.040 anything here

00:36:57.820 that we

00:36:59.540 have to

00:36:59.800 worry about.

00:37:01.500 But maybe.

00:37:02.380 Who knows?

00:37:03.320 I mean,

00:37:03.700 how would

00:37:04.060 we know?

00:37:05.180 So my

00:37:05.660 guess is that

00:37:06.180 the whole

00:37:06.460 biolab story

00:37:07.500 is there's

00:37:08.800 probably

00:37:09.060 something at

00:37:09.920 the base

00:37:10.300 of it,

00:37:11.360 but maybe

00:37:11.780 not something

00:37:12.320 we necessarily

00:37:12.940 have to worry

00:37:13.380 about too

00:37:13.760 much.

00:37:15.300 And I'm

00:37:15.680 going to

00:37:15.820 say that

00:37:16.500 the Wisconsin

00:37:17.300 election

00:37:19.380 claims,

00:37:20.800 you've heard

00:37:21.260 claims,

00:37:21.900 seems to

00:37:22.380 only appear

00:37:22.900 in right

00:37:24.160 leaning

00:37:24.600 media,

00:37:26.400 that there

00:37:29.720 have been

00:37:30.080 found

00:37:30.480 irregularities

00:37:31.420 in the

00:37:31.740 2020

00:37:32.120 Wisconsin

00:37:32.880 election.

00:37:34.040 However,

00:37:34.800 when I put

00:37:35.600 that out

00:37:35.980 to my

00:37:36.480 skeptics,

00:37:37.620 it doesn't

00:37:38.420 appear that

00:37:38.840 that's going

00:37:39.220 hold up.

00:37:40.800 So if I

00:37:41.660 had to

00:37:41.980 bet,

00:37:42.460 I would

00:37:42.740 bet the

00:37:43.160 Wisconsin

00:37:43.840 claims of

00:37:44.820 fraud will

00:37:45.420 not hold

00:37:46.020 up.

00:37:47.180 Sorry.

00:37:48.280 And the

00:37:48.760 reason I

00:37:49.080 say that

00:37:49.440 is because

00:37:49.800 the news

00:37:50.460 never jumped

00:37:51.180 to any

00:37:51.900 other of the

00:37:52.420 major media.

00:37:53.820 It didn't

00:37:54.400 even really

00:37:54.980 make it to

00:37:55.520 the, say,

00:37:56.840 the high-end

00:37:57.500 right-leaning

00:37:58.420 media.

00:37:59.360 It never

00:37:59.820 got out of

00:38:00.280 the swamp

00:38:02.760 of the

00:38:03.220 right-est

00:38:03.660 of the

00:38:04.000 right-leaning

00:38:05.160 stuff.

00:38:06.220 Now,

00:38:07.280 does that

00:38:07.580 mean it's

00:38:07.960 wrong?

00:38:09.380 Let me

00:38:10.000 be clear.

00:38:11.860 Let me

00:38:12.260 be clear.

00:38:13.220 I don't

00:38:13.860 see how

00:38:14.280 50 states

00:38:15.040 could all

00:38:15.480 run

00:38:15.800 legitimate

00:38:16.820 elections.

00:38:18.940 To me,

00:38:19.700 it seems 0.92

00:38:19.980 ridiculous

00:38:20.580 to imagine 0.97

00:38:22.020 that when

00:38:22.460 we see

00:38:22.940 how well

00:38:23.500 everything

00:38:24.040 else in

00:38:24.520 the world

00:38:24.860 works,

00:38:26.360 have we

00:38:26.840 not watched

00:38:27.600 everything

00:38:28.720 else in

00:38:29.240 the world

00:38:29.560 fail from

00:38:30.700 our experts

00:38:31.960 in everything,

00:38:32.780 right?

00:38:33.340 Literally,

00:38:34.020 our experts

00:38:34.540 in everything

00:38:35.540 have, you

00:38:37.680 know,

00:38:37.840 failed.

00:38:39.200 But sure,

00:38:40.440 our election

00:38:41.040 experts in

00:38:41.780 50 different

00:38:42.560 states with

00:38:43.760 high stakes

00:38:44.500 and high

00:38:45.200 gain for

00:38:45.700 cheating and

00:38:47.040 really no

00:38:48.000 comprehensive

00:38:48.600 audits in

00:38:50.240 most cases,

00:38:51.620 that all

00:38:52.340 that worked

00:38:52.860 out.

00:38:54.220 That the

00:38:54.620 only thing

00:38:55.380 that works

00:38:55.820 the way we

00:38:56.600 want it to

00:38:57.120 is elections.

00:38:58.820 And there

00:38:59.320 are 50 of

00:39:00.080 them.

00:39:01.000 50 separate

00:39:02.040 entities running

00:39:03.580 elections,

00:39:04.480 and yet,

00:39:04.880 it's the

00:39:05.760 only situation

00:39:06.680 in the

00:39:07.080 entire world

00:39:07.920 in the

00:39:08.240 history of

00:39:08.680 humanity

00:39:09.120 that it

00:39:10.120 all worked

00:39:10.560 out and

00:39:10.980 it was fair

00:39:11.460 and everybody

00:39:11.880 did their

00:39:12.320 job and

00:39:13.220 nobody cheated

00:39:13.960 in a major

00:39:14.900 way.

00:39:16.180 That's what

00:39:16.880 we're being

00:39:17.300 asked to

00:39:17.720 believe in

00:39:18.480 the context

00:39:19.140 of seeing

00:39:20.080 literally every

00:39:21.700 organization being

00:39:22.740 corrupt and 0.98

00:39:24.260 terrible, 0.98

00:39:24.940 except for our

00:39:26.180 voting systems in

00:39:27.100 all 50 states.

00:39:28.940 Why even our

00:39:29.980 smallest little

00:39:30.800 states, those

00:39:32.000 scrappy

00:39:32.480 accomplishers,

00:39:34.080 even they

00:39:34.600 got it

00:39:34.940 right, we're

00:39:36.640 told.

00:39:38.000 So, I

00:39:39.140 don't have

00:39:39.560 reason to

00:39:40.960 believe that

00:39:41.360 the Wisconsin

00:39:41.980 claims are

00:39:42.700 going to

00:39:43.200 pan out,

00:39:44.140 because remember

00:39:44.740 what I said?

00:39:45.780 Who remembers

00:39:46.420 my prediction

00:39:47.100 at the very

00:39:47.840 beginning of

00:39:49.520 the claims

00:39:51.000 of election

00:39:51.540 fraud?

00:39:53.320 I said

00:39:54.280 that whether

00:39:55.780 or not

00:39:56.380 there's fraud,

00:39:57.040 fraud, I

00:39:58.220 can guarantee

00:39:58.820 that 95%

00:40:00.020 of the claims

00:40:00.720 of fraud

00:40:01.220 will not

00:40:01.900 be real.

00:40:03.500 Do you

00:40:03.700 remember that?

00:40:04.800 Does anybody

00:40:05.060 remember that?

00:40:06.060 One of my

00:40:06.660 best predictions,

00:40:08.600 that we may

00:40:10.080 never know if

00:40:10.700 there's any

00:40:11.080 real fraud,

00:40:12.140 because 95%

00:40:13.420 of everything

00:40:13.940 that's offered

00:40:14.620 as fraud

00:40:15.080 will be

00:40:15.460 debunked,

00:40:16.560 and that

00:40:16.880 will make

00:40:17.180 it all

00:40:17.460 look like

00:40:17.820 fraud.

00:40:18.660 So we

00:40:19.540 would never

00:40:19.980 know if

00:40:20.780 there was

00:40:21.000 any real

00:40:21.400 stuff in

00:40:21.860 there,

00:40:22.500 because 95%

00:40:24.020 of it is

00:40:24.580 going to be

00:40:24.900 unreal and

00:40:25.480 it will just

00:40:25.820 disguise any

00:40:26.800 real stuff

00:40:27.340 that might

00:40:27.680 have been

00:40:27.880 there.

00:40:28.780 And by

00:40:29.140 the way,

00:40:29.480 let me say

00:40:29.880 clearly so

00:40:30.420 I don't

00:40:30.680 get demonetized,

00:40:32.940 I'm not

00:40:34.540 aware of

00:40:34.900 any proven

00:40:35.480 fraud in

00:40:37.220 the 2020

00:40:37.820 election.

00:40:39.580 Not aware

00:40:40.320 of it.

00:40:41.580 All right.

00:40:42.560 Doesn't mean

00:40:43.140 it didn't

00:40:43.460 happen.

00:40:45.980 Apparently

00:40:46.460 Lavrov is

00:40:47.300 saying that

00:40:47.680 hospital that

00:40:48.720 was bombed

00:40:50.300 was really

00:40:51.800 actually taken

00:40:54.720 over by

00:40:55.220 militants,

00:40:55.820 and it

00:40:56.760 was the

00:40:57.140 Ukrainian

00:40:57.580 soldiers who

00:40:58.640 were in

00:40:58.800 there,

00:40:59.140 not any

00:40:59.720 patients,

00:41:00.740 and that

00:41:01.060 it's all

00:41:01.360 fake news.

00:41:02.620 And then

00:41:02.820 the World

00:41:03.060 Health Organization

00:41:03.860 says there

00:41:04.340 have been

00:41:04.560 24 verified

00:41:05.540 attacks on

00:41:06.200 health care

00:41:06.720 facilities in

00:41:07.480 Ukraine so 0.66

00:41:08.040 far.

00:41:09.340 Do you

00:41:10.040 think that

00:41:10.500 that means

00:41:11.040 that Russia 0.72

00:41:11.800 has a

00:41:12.760 policy of

00:41:13.520 attacking

00:41:13.920 hospitals?

00:41:15.460 Go.

00:41:16.440 Do you

00:41:16.920 believe that

00:41:17.780 Russia has 0.96

00:41:19.340 an express

00:41:20.340 policy of

00:41:21.820 attacking

00:41:22.380 hospitals?

00:41:23.080 do you

00:41:24.240 believe it

00:41:24.780 or not?

00:41:28.040 I'm seeing

00:41:28.740 all no's.

00:41:29.860 Thank you.

00:41:32.000 Oh, that's

00:41:32.560 so, well, I'm

00:41:35.200 very impressed.

00:41:36.240 I am so

00:41:36.820 impressed with

00:41:37.340 all of you.

00:41:38.860 Because we

00:41:41.340 don't know what's

00:41:41.880 going on there,

00:41:42.880 but the most

00:41:43.720 popular lie during

00:41:45.220 a war is that

00:41:45.980 the other side

00:41:46.540 bombed your

00:41:47.020 hospital.

00:41:48.120 Am I right?

00:41:49.300 It's the

00:41:49.760 number one

00:41:50.480 most popular

00:41:51.400 guaranteed to

00:41:53.020 happen lie. 0.97

00:41:56.060 Suppose

00:41:56.580 Russia had 0.94

00:41:58.340 never bombed

00:41:59.040 any hospitals.

00:42:00.840 Do you

00:42:01.120 think there

00:42:01.420 would be a

00:42:01.780 story with

00:42:02.740 details and

00:42:03.360 pictures about

00:42:04.620 Russia bombing 0.71

00:42:05.240 a hospital if

00:42:06.160 they had never

00:42:06.620 bombed any?

00:42:07.660 Of course

00:42:08.180 it would.

00:42:09.260 Of course

00:42:09.800 it would.

00:42:10.580 Because it's

00:42:11.040 every time.

00:42:12.580 You don't

00:42:13.040 even have to

00:42:13.520 wonder about

00:42:14.160 it.

00:42:15.080 You could

00:42:15.560 have set

00:42:15.860 your timer

00:42:16.400 from the

00:42:17.420 first bomb

00:42:18.140 that went

00:42:19.220 off in

00:42:19.540 Ukraine.

00:42:20.320 You could

00:42:20.660 have set

00:42:21.040 the timer

00:42:21.500 and say

00:42:21.840 all right,

00:42:23.000 seven days

00:42:24.320 until the

00:42:24.900 first story

00:42:25.780 about a

00:42:26.260 hospital being

00:42:27.140 bombed.

00:42:29.360 Now,

00:42:30.100 here's my

00:42:31.300 question.

00:42:33.460 Is there

00:42:34.140 any military

00:42:34.840 who has

00:42:35.320 ever

00:42:35.680 intentionally

00:42:36.980 bombed

00:42:37.640 a hospital

00:42:38.840 because there

00:42:40.360 was a,

00:42:41.560 let's say,

00:42:42.040 an overall

00:42:42.560 strategy that

00:42:43.600 it demoralizes

00:42:46.420 the public?

00:42:47.000 somebody says,

00:42:48.900 yes,

00:42:49.000 the Nazis,

00:42:49.860 but ask

00:42:50.680 yourself if

00:42:51.500 that was

00:42:51.880 propaganda

00:42:52.320 against the

00:42:53.020 Nazis.

00:42:53.780 Because I'm

00:42:54.380 not even

00:42:54.740 sure the

00:42:55.080 Nazis

00:42:55.420 bombed

00:42:55.800 hospitals.

00:42:57.880 The

00:42:58.340 Japanese

00:42:58.720 and China.

00:43:00.720 See,

00:43:01.020 here's the

00:43:01.360 problem.

00:43:02.280 When I

00:43:02.660 ask you

00:43:03.000 for historical

00:43:03.780 examples,

00:43:05.700 I'll bet

00:43:06.080 all of the

00:43:06.720 historical

00:43:07.220 examples that

00:43:07.980 you believe

00:43:08.380 are historically

00:43:09.080 true,

00:43:09.560 I'll bet

00:43:09.820 they're all

00:43:10.220 not true.

00:43:11.720 I'll bet

00:43:12.100 it's never

00:43:12.520 been true.

00:43:13.080 because can

00:43:14.820 anybody explain

00:43:16.660 the strategy?

00:43:20.600 I don't

00:43:21.240 think it

00:43:22.940 makes sense

00:43:23.360 as a

00:43:23.700 strategy.

00:43:27.780 Well,

00:43:28.060 Nagasaki,

00:43:28.860 of course,

00:43:29.300 that was a

00:43:31.480 civilian attack,

00:43:32.320 of course.

00:43:34.740 Yeah.

00:43:35.600 So,

00:43:36.260 certainly,

00:43:37.180 yeah,

00:43:37.940 I mean,

00:43:38.400 Hiroshi,

00:43:39.400 Nagasaki,

00:43:41.080 are special

00:43:41.900 cases.

00:43:42.960 Dresden,

00:43:43.760 yeah,

00:43:44.280 I mean,

00:43:44.740 we certainly

00:43:45.620 see examples

00:43:46.580 of civilians

00:43:48.280 being targeted.

00:43:49.480 So,

00:43:49.760 I'm not

00:43:50.320 questioning

00:43:50.820 whether

00:43:52.000 militaries

00:43:52.700 target civilian

00:43:53.600 population

00:43:54.460 centers.

00:43:54.960 That's a

00:43:55.280 given.

00:43:56.880 But

00:43:57.200 specifically

00:43:57.820 hospitals?

00:43:58.960 You know,

00:43:59.140 before you've

00:43:59.740 leveled the

00:44:00.140 whole town,

00:44:00.640 you're going

00:44:00.880 to go after

00:44:01.220 the hospital

00:44:01.700 first?

00:44:03.400 I don't

00:44:03.700 know.

00:44:04.820 Call me

00:44:05.520 skeptical.

00:44:07.060 It feels

00:44:07.540 like exactly

00:44:08.220 the opposite

00:44:08.860 of what a

00:44:09.460 good strategy

00:44:10.080 would be.

00:44:10.540 And that,

00:44:17.220 ladies and 0.98

00:44:17.900 gentlemen,

00:44:18.980 is almost

00:44:19.560 everything I

00:44:20.140 wanted to

00:44:20.440 tell you,

00:44:20.840 except that

00:44:21.660 here's

00:44:23.040 something for

00:44:24.000 YouTube.

00:44:24.840 The people

00:44:25.180 on Locals

00:44:25.780 have known

00:44:26.120 this for

00:44:26.440 some time.

00:44:28.800 I'm going

00:44:29.360 to say this

00:44:29.720 publicly just

00:44:30.960 because I'm

00:44:31.640 a public

00:44:32.040 figure,

00:44:32.920 but other

00:44:33.360 words,

00:44:33.700 I'm not

00:44:33.940 going to be

00:44:34.180 talking about

00:44:34.660 it.

00:44:36.280 I am

00:44:37.060 separated

00:44:38.000 slash going

00:44:38.800 through a

00:44:39.160 divorce.

00:44:40.540 The only

00:44:41.140 reason I'm

00:44:41.560 telling you

00:44:41.880 that is

00:44:43.060 if you

00:44:43.380 see my

00:44:43.960 ex-wife

00:44:44.500 on a

00:44:44.840 date,

00:44:45.280 or me,

00:44:47.380 don't worry

00:44:48.100 about it.

00:44:49.160 Because it's

00:44:49.640 a process

00:44:50.680 that's been

00:44:51.120 going on

00:44:51.480 for some

00:44:51.840 time.

00:44:52.960 So if

00:44:53.800 you see

00:44:54.100 either of

00:44:54.620 us out

00:44:54.880 in public,

00:44:55.400 you don't

00:44:55.660 have to

00:44:55.980 alert the

00:44:56.420 media.

00:44:58.200 We've

00:44:58.680 moved on.

00:44:59.200 so it

00:45:02.640 was a tough

00:45:03.420 pandemic for

00:45:04.180 some of

00:45:04.520 us.

00:45:06.000 I don't

00:45:06.540 think you

00:45:06.820 have to

00:45:07.080 worry about

00:45:07.740 I'm not

00:45:08.620 looking for

00:45:09.180 any sympathy,

00:45:09.900 please.

00:45:11.120 Please.

00:45:11.720 No sympathy.

00:45:13.220 None is

00:45:13.640 deserved.

00:45:15.380 Things are

00:45:15.960 good until

00:45:16.340 they're not

00:45:16.700 good.

00:45:18.060 If you're

00:45:18.660 wondering what

00:45:19.200 happened,

00:45:19.740 I don't

00:45:20.060 know.

00:45:21.900 Have you

00:45:22.600 ever gone

00:45:22.920 through a

00:45:23.240 breakup and

00:45:23.760 when you're

00:45:24.120 done, you

00:45:24.780 weren't really

00:45:25.180 sure why?

00:45:26.520 Because there

00:45:27.100 were so many

00:45:27.620 reasons.

00:45:28.680 There were no

00:45:29.180 reasons and

00:45:29.780 then there

00:45:30.120 were a hundred

00:45:30.480 reasons.

00:45:31.640 And then if

00:45:32.280 you go from

00:45:32.660 no reasons

00:45:33.140 at all to

00:45:33.640 a hundred

00:45:33.940 reasons, it

00:45:35.900 means you

00:45:36.180 don't really

00:45:36.520 know what

00:45:36.800 the reason

00:45:37.120 was.

00:45:38.620 So I

00:45:39.660 don't know.

00:45:40.460 Beats me.

00:45:42.280 But just

00:45:45.780 be kind.

00:45:47.760 Just know I'm

00:45:48.260 not going to

00:45:48.560 give you any

00:45:48.980 more information

00:45:49.880 on it.

00:45:50.980 Life happens.

00:45:52.700 I did spend

00:45:53.820 a little more

00:45:55.520 time on

00:45:55.980 Prisoner

00:45:56.500 Island this

00:45:57.040 year than

00:45:57.460 I was

00:45:58.080 planning to.

00:45:59.880 But Prisoner

00:46:01.680 Island only

00:46:02.180 goes one

00:46:02.640 way.

00:46:04.000 And if you

00:46:04.820 don't recognize

00:46:05.360 that analogy,

00:46:08.000 it comes from

00:46:09.520 what I call

00:46:10.280 my operating

00:46:10.960 system.

00:46:13.060 My operating

00:46:14.100 system is my

00:46:15.080 central idea

00:46:17.020 of who I

00:46:17.580 am.

00:46:18.580 It always

00:46:19.340 stays the

00:46:19.780 same no

00:46:20.280 matter what's

00:46:20.660 happening to

00:46:21.220 me.

00:46:22.400 And I

00:46:23.560 use Prisoner

00:46:24.320 Island as

00:46:24.820 my story

00:46:26.400 that runs

00:46:27.640 in my head

00:46:28.080 all the

00:46:28.340 time.

00:46:28.920 It goes

00:46:29.280 like this.

00:46:30.740 That there's

00:46:31.900 an island of

00:46:32.500 just prisoners

00:46:33.080 and I'm

00:46:34.260 dropped on

00:46:34.680 the island

00:46:35.060 because I've

00:46:35.880 been probably

00:46:36.800 unjustly

00:46:37.480 accused of

00:46:38.060 something.

00:46:40.860 Yeah, of

00:46:41.420 course, there's

00:46:41.800 a prenup.

00:46:43.240 And I get

00:46:45.480 dropped on

00:46:46.020 Prisoner Island

00:46:46.620 and the first

00:46:47.080 day the

00:46:47.400 prisoners beat

00:46:48.020 me up because

00:46:48.680 there's no

00:46:49.040 law there.

00:46:50.140 And they beat

00:46:50.820 me up and

00:46:51.200 leave me for 1.00

00:46:51.660 dead.

00:46:52.560 Second day,

00:46:53.140 they beat

00:46:53.580 me up and

00:46:54.100 steal my

00:46:54.660 clothes and

00:46:55.240 leave me for 1.00

00:46:55.800 dead.

00:46:56.700 Third day,

00:46:57.460 they beat

00:46:58.000 me up and 1.00

00:46:58.480 rape me and 1.00

00:47:00.000 leave me for 1.00

00:47:00.920 dead three 0.69

00:47:01.660 days in a

00:47:02.160 row.

00:47:02.800 But if you

00:47:03.460 come back in

00:47:03.960 a year,

00:47:05.160 all the

00:47:07.060 people who

00:47:07.480 touched me

00:47:07.980 will be 1.00

00:47:08.360 dead and 0.85

00:47:09.560 I'll be in 0.93

00:47:10.020 charge of

00:47:10.420 Prisoner

00:47:10.800 Island.

00:47:12.780 So that's

00:47:13.740 the story

00:47:15.620 that runs

00:47:16.040 into my

00:47:16.300 head.

00:47:17.060 So whenever

00:47:17.500 I find

00:47:18.580 myself in

00:47:19.360 a situation,

00:47:20.980 shall we

00:47:21.380 say, that's

00:47:22.740 not so

00:47:23.200 positive, I

00:47:24.440 tell myself,

00:47:25.680 okay, I'm

00:47:26.280 on Prisoner

00:47:26.900 Island.

00:47:27.960 First three

00:47:28.580 days, not

00:47:29.560 going to be

00:47:29.920 good.

00:47:31.320 Check back

00:47:31.900 in a year.

00:47:33.500 Because in

00:47:34.120 a year, I

00:47:35.240 am going to

00:47:35.680 crawl through

00:47:36.320 whatever this

00:47:37.120 is.

00:47:38.060 I'm going to

00:47:38.660 eat a mile 1.00

00:47:39.900 of shit if 1.00

00:47:40.660 I have to. 1.00

00:47:41.980 I'm going to

00:47:42.480 do whatever

00:47:43.240 it takes.

00:47:44.560 But in a

00:47:45.140 year, I'm

00:47:46.360 going to be

00:47:46.620 in charge of

00:47:47.220 Prisoner

00:47:47.660 Island and

00:47:48.400 everybody who

00:47:48.920 touched me is

00:47:49.380 going to be 0.98

00:47:49.660 dead. 0.98

00:47:49.920 So I

00:47:52.740 just take

00:47:53.120 that attitude

00:47:53.620 to anything

00:47:54.340 I'm doing

00:47:54.860 and I

00:47:56.880 find it

00:47:57.160 helps a

00:47:57.480 lot.

00:47:59.720 All right.

00:48:03.200 All right.

00:48:06.120 But be

00:48:06.460 kind, okay?

00:48:07.780 So I

00:48:08.280 would ask

00:48:08.640 you to be

00:48:09.200 kind to

00:48:09.640 her.

00:48:10.940 She

00:48:11.060 doesn't need

00:48:12.600 or deserve

00:48:13.120 any bad

00:48:15.000 vibes.

00:48:16.860 And just

00:48:18.720 recognize that

00:48:19.760 life has

00:48:21.480 some ups

00:48:21.920 and downs.

00:48:22.720 All right.

00:48:23.300 That's all

00:48:23.760 for now.

00:48:24.300 And I'll

00:48:24.760 talk to

00:48:25.260 you tomorrow.

00:48:26.940 as well.

00:48:32.480 .

00:48:37.620 .

00:48:37.780 .

00:48:49.020 .

00:48:49.500 .

00:48:49.880 .

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 10, 2022

Episode 1678 Scott Adams： How Russia and Ukraine Can Make a Deal

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