Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1684 Scott Adams： Russia Already Lost the War. I'll Explain

00:00:00.000 Good morning everybody. I didn't see you there. You snuck up on me. Well, it is terrific to

00:00:14.000 see you and may I congratulate you on succeeding once again at finding coffee with Scott Adams,

00:00:23.000 the most marvelous thing since the beginning of time. And we'd like to take that up a notch,

00:00:29.600 wouldn't we? Wouldn't we? Yes, it looks like it's unanimous. We'd like to take it up a notch by

00:00:35.720 grabbing a, you know, you know what's coming. A cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a gel,

00:00:44.720 a stein, a canteen, a jug, a flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:50.620 Do you know I like coffee? Now fill it with your favorite liquid and join me now for the

00:00:57.620 unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes just about everything

00:01:02.480 better. It's called the simultaneous sip. And it happens now. Go.

00:01:08.620 Oh my God. It's almost like a psychedelic feeling. It's so good. I don't know if you could feel that

00:01:23.780 where you were, but wow. Well, Marco Rubio, Senator Rubio, has figured out how to be useful. And he's

00:01:33.260 championed a bill in the Senate that the Senate passed, but still needs the House to pass it,

00:01:39.120 to stop changing the time twice a year. Can we just make Marco Rubio president if he just gets this

00:01:49.860 done? I've decided that I'm going to lower the bar for president. Anybody who can get this done

00:01:58.200 has my vote for president? So if Rubio can get this time change canceled, I think he's earned four

00:02:08.360 years. He'll have to earn the second term. But in my mind, if he can just do this one thing,

00:02:14.760 President Rubio. And I would expect that the House will turn it down.

00:02:20.420 The funniest thing about this is that Congress can't pass a law that everybody agrees with.

00:02:28.580 Let me say that again. The funniest thing about this is that Congress can't pass a law that

00:02:35.020 everybody agrees with. I don't know why. Does anybody know why? They actually had to game it and wait

00:02:43.460 for the actual time change to introduce it so that people would still be, you know, sleepy and angry

00:02:49.920 and then they could get it passed in the Senate. But too many days might go by before the House gets

00:02:56.300 all of it. They might forget this whole time change thing and think there was some reason to make the

00:03:02.080 world greener or something. So it's the most important topic of the day. You know, I do think you could

00:03:13.220 probably calculate how much productivity is lost by the time change. But also, I'm going to make a bet

00:03:22.040 without looking at any data, I'll bet there are more traffic accidents. What do you think?

00:03:28.840 Do you think the time change would show a little blip in traffic accidents, maybe violence in general?

00:03:34.600 I'll bet. You know, I don't have any data to back that up, but I'll bet. It would make sense.

00:03:43.220 Now, people have been asking me since I've been saying some things about Putin, if I'm afraid of being

00:03:50.760 poisoned by polonium, because that sometimes happens to Putin's critics. But I am one step ahead.

00:03:58.060 For months now, I've been microdosing on polonium, just to build up my resistance. Because if he comes for me,

00:04:08.100 it's going to be like I had two shots and a booster. I'm going to be like, polonium? That's like the sniffles.

00:04:14.980 Come on. I'm thinking of wearing a mask. Some people say that wearing a mask would not help me from

00:04:25.340 polonium poisoning. But I follow the science, unlike you. I follow the science. So anyway, I'll be ready.

00:04:34.440 And kids, if you're thinking of doing this, don't do this at home. Do not microdose on polonium.

00:04:45.620 It involves breaking into a secure facility in a foreign country and stealing one of the most secure items

00:04:52.880 in the history of humankind. And then selecting exactly the right amount that won't kill you.

00:04:59.500 It's hard. So I don't recommend you do it. But I'll be ready when they come for me.

00:05:07.180 As Joel Pollack pointed out in a tweet,

00:05:11.620 so far Vladimir Putin has done more to punish Hunter Biden for his corruption

00:05:15.480 than the entire American government. True.

00:05:19.460 Because Putin's put sanctions on some Clintons and Biden, including Hunter Biden, I guess.

00:05:24.660 And, okay, it's a joke, but it's literally true, at least in terms of the punishment part.

00:05:35.100 Not the reason for it. Well, maybe. Who knows?

00:05:41.260 President Biden lowered our confidence in him a little bit more today

00:05:47.440 by tweeting that oil prices are decreasing and gas prices should, too.

00:05:54.300 Last time, oil was $96 a barrel. Gas was $362 a gallon.

00:05:59.760 Now it's $4.32, $4.31.

00:06:01.880 He says in his tweet,

00:06:04.220 oil and gas companies shouldn't pad their profits at the expense of hardworking Americans.

00:06:08.960 And this is the day that we learned that Biden believes that prices are set based on cost.

00:06:20.000 Does he know that that's never the case?

00:06:23.320 Not just about oil, but about everything.

00:06:29.320 Try buying something based on the cost.

00:06:33.180 You should buy something based on what they know the market will pay.

00:06:37.960 All prices are based on what people are going to be willing to pay.

00:06:41.420 That's it.

00:06:42.440 It's not really the cost of production.

00:06:45.840 Now, in the long run, it could be the cost of production.

00:06:49.280 But as long as the oil companies are selling as much oil as they want to sell,

00:06:55.300 why would they lower the price or the gas stations?

00:06:59.300 Now, of course, they're also anticipating future higher expenses,

00:07:03.540 and they're working with this psychology.

00:07:04.980 But to imagine that prices have ever depended on the cost.

00:07:11.460 I mean, obviously, you want your price to be higher than the cost.

00:07:14.620 That's obvious.

00:07:15.740 But how much higher is just dependent on what people are willing to pay.

00:07:19.700 Always has been.

00:07:21.500 Always will be.

00:07:23.620 So Biden is, you know, presumably, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt

00:07:28.500 that he probably knows that, but he thinks it's good persuasion

00:07:32.780 because other people don't know it.

00:07:35.520 And in that, he might be correct.

00:07:38.120 If this were Trump, I'd probably say, you know,

00:07:40.960 it's not actually the way things work.

00:07:43.700 But if it convinces people it should be that way,

00:07:46.140 maybe it might have some benefit.

00:07:47.640 It might lower the prices.

00:07:48.460 He might actually embarrass the industry to lower its prices.

00:07:54.940 Could work.

00:07:56.460 So as a persuasion play, it might be fine.

00:08:00.460 And if he knows what he's doing,

00:08:02.620 or his advisors or whoever wrote the tweet,

00:08:06.260 I would have given Trump a pass on this.

00:08:09.180 So I'll give Biden a pass on this, too.

00:08:13.180 All right.

00:08:18.000 Rasmussen poll says that 76% of Americans

00:08:21.700 are in favor of welcoming Ukraine refugees.

00:08:28.260 Are we a super racist country?

00:08:33.780 Way more than I thought just a little while ago.

00:08:39.180 Because how do we explain this?

00:08:42.480 Two ways, and neither of them are flattering.

00:08:46.480 All right?

00:08:48.320 Somebody says in the comments on locals

00:08:53.640 that the Ukrainian women are so hot,

00:08:57.240 and that's why they're welcome.

00:08:59.320 Well, okay, first of all, I'm not going to argue the point

00:09:03.360 because I think the point is solid.

00:09:05.240 But how do you explain how many people

00:09:09.420 are saying, give us more refugees?

00:09:13.960 Well, I would explain it the following way.

00:09:17.260 Number one,

00:09:19.460 if it's a country that has a high standard of education,

00:09:23.260 it's probably economically a pretty good deal.

00:09:27.720 So it would work for the United States in the long run.

00:09:30.260 It would work for the Ukrainians, of course. 0.99

00:09:31.960 So it could be purely economical.

00:09:34.880 You know, people look at it and they say,

00:09:36.220 you know, we're getting people

00:09:39.080 who probably have been exposed to a little bit of English,

00:09:42.640 I would guess, at least the business people.

00:09:45.140 Get a lot of skills.

00:09:46.360 They could probably be retrained fairly easily.

00:09:49.480 So it could be that people are just looking at it

00:09:53.440 and follow the money just works every time,

00:09:56.260 even if people aren't thinking that way.

00:09:58.080 So I've told you this before, right?

00:10:00.980 That follow the money works,

00:10:02.680 even if nobody involved is thinking in those terms,

00:10:06.880 consciously.

00:10:07.640 It just always seems to work, weirdly.

00:10:11.580 And this could be another case.

00:10:13.600 Now, another case, another situation

00:10:15.080 is that the brainwashing of the media,

00:10:18.100 which has, for whatever reason,

00:10:20.320 made Ukraine the most important thing in the world suddenly, 0.99

00:10:24.360 is maybe it's just brainwashing.

00:10:26.360 And so we've created this sympathy for the Ukrainians

00:10:30.460 that is artificially, you know,

00:10:34.580 just put into our brains.

00:10:37.140 So maybe some of that.

00:10:42.540 And, yeah, so I'm not sure exactly how to explain that number,

00:10:47.180 but I don't think it's good or bad.

00:10:49.560 It's just interesting how quickly people's minds

00:10:52.300 got to a place where 76% would be on the same page.

00:10:56.980 You don't see that too much.

00:10:59.340 Vice President Harris was being criticized

00:11:02.660 for saying in public this sentence.

00:11:07.140 The United States stands firmly with the Ukrainian people

00:11:10.220 in defense of the NATO alliance.

00:11:12.900 Now, of course, Ukraine is not in the NATO alliance,

00:11:17.080 which is, you know, in many ways,

00:11:19.560 the whole point of the war 0.82

00:11:20.820 is what's happening with Ukraine and NATO.

00:11:24.860 But then I guess in the transcript,

00:11:29.160 they added a word to clarify,

00:11:31.680 the word and,

00:11:33.060 but they showed that they added it,

00:11:35.000 so they indicated it was an added word.

00:11:37.080 They weren't trying to hide that part.

00:11:39.480 And so it would say and,

00:11:42.080 so that they're doing two things.

00:11:43.340 They're defending Ukrainian people,

00:11:44.980 but they're also, and separately,

00:11:48.200 defending the NATO alliance.

00:11:49.780 So that would be the clarification.

00:11:51.780 I will be consistent with my clarification rule.

00:11:56.380 If I give people 48 hours to clarify,

00:12:01.340 have I not stated that that's,

00:12:03.400 that's the standard I would like to see?

00:12:06.300 That is the standard I'd like to see.

00:12:08.560 I'd like to give people 48 hours to clarify.

00:12:11.000 I think within 48 hours, they clarified,

00:12:15.340 and I accept the clarification.

00:12:17.560 Because, let me try the really test on you, okay?

00:12:23.920 Can we do this?

00:12:24.820 I'm going to try the really test.

00:12:26.940 It goes like this.

00:12:29.300 The Vice President of the United States

00:12:31.220 didn't know that the whole point

00:12:33.020 of the Ukrainian conflict

00:12:34.360 that she has been sent to moderate,

00:12:37.260 she didn't know that Ukraine is not part of NATO.

00:12:41.940 Really?

00:12:44.420 Really?

00:12:44.940 That's a position you would defend.

00:12:48.860 That she actually, literally, really,

00:12:51.800 really, really didn't know

00:12:53.840 that Ukraine was not part of NATO.

00:12:59.260 Really?

00:13:01.440 Okay, in my opinion,

00:13:02.800 the really test works on this one.

00:13:05.440 I know you're being a little stubborn in the comments,

00:13:08.060 and you're going to go with your interpretation

00:13:11.020 that she didn't know that.

00:13:12.080 But honestly, people,

00:13:14.940 I feel like you need,

00:13:18.360 if you think that this is real,

00:13:21.800 just take a second look.

00:13:26.120 Here, I'll tell you what.

00:13:27.800 I'll tell you what.

00:13:29.280 Let me give you,

00:13:30.120 instead of trying to change your mind,

00:13:33.160 instead of trying to change your mind,

00:13:34.460 to me, this is obvious fake news.

00:13:36.520 I don't think this could be

00:13:37.900 more obviously fake news.

00:13:39.680 I think the clarification was correct,

00:13:42.840 that she meant to support NATO

00:13:44.500 and also separately Ukrainian people.

00:13:47.840 And it's very straightforward and simple.

00:13:50.220 And no, there is no way

00:13:51.780 that the Vice President of the United States

00:13:54.360 was unaware

00:13:55.100 of Ukraine's NATO non-status.

00:13:59.120 There's no way she didn't know that.

00:14:02.900 All right?

00:14:03.260 And she didn't, like, forget momentarily.

00:14:05.580 That didn't happen.

00:14:07.580 But look how easily you were convinced

00:14:09.780 that that actually happened.

00:14:12.020 How many times have you seen

00:14:13.720 people on the left

00:14:15.600 convinced of something so easily

00:14:17.740 that was so obviously not true?

00:14:20.040 A lot, right?

00:14:22.920 It happens to us, too.

00:14:26.120 How many times have you seen me

00:14:28.000 buy something,

00:14:28.880 at least in the short term,

00:14:30.660 buy into something

00:14:31.440 that was just sort of

00:14:32.580 obviously not true,

00:14:34.180 and I'm like,

00:14:34.920 uh-uh, delete my tweet?

00:14:37.180 Right?

00:14:37.680 It happens to all of us.

00:14:39.480 Right?

00:14:39.780 I'm not picking on anybody.

00:14:42.300 This is a universal human capacity.

00:14:45.220 We just believe things first sometimes.

00:14:48.140 But let me ask you again.

00:14:51.540 Now that I spent

00:14:52.460 a little bit of time on it,

00:14:53.520 I'm just going to ask you

00:14:54.220 the same question again.

00:14:55.540 Do you really believe

00:14:56.720 that the Vice President

00:14:58.280 of the United States

00:14:59.020 didn't know the Ukrainian status

00:15:01.140 with NATO?

00:15:02.980 Really?

00:15:04.820 Say it again.

00:15:05.820 Say yes if you believe that.

00:15:08.040 I just want to say.

00:15:09.760 Okay?

00:15:10.300 There's still a lot of yeses.

00:15:12.660 All right?

00:15:14.640 Now, and you also know

00:15:16.040 that I have a super low opinion

00:15:17.800 of the Vice President's capabilities.

00:15:21.540 So I'm very much on your side

00:15:23.340 about her, let's say,

00:15:25.900 her leadership capabilities.

00:15:27.660 But there's no way

00:15:29.020 she didn't know that.

00:15:30.820 All right.

00:15:33.960 So let me give you a challenge.

00:15:38.480 Okay?

00:15:40.380 Find somebody you know,

00:15:42.740 maybe on Twitter.

00:15:44.760 Could be a blue check or not.

00:15:47.100 somebody you know

00:15:48.700 who's really good

00:15:50.040 at seeing both sides of things.

00:15:53.160 And then ask them this question.

00:15:55.480 Do you really think

00:15:56.580 that the Vice President

00:15:57.440 didn't know that fact?

00:16:00.220 See what they say.

00:16:01.520 See if the people you trust,

00:16:04.380 the people you trust,

00:16:05.480 not the people I trust,

00:16:06.560 but the people you trust,

00:16:07.700 see if they agree with you.

00:16:09.580 I'd be kind of curious about that.

00:16:11.080 I don't even know.

00:16:14.420 I'm not even sure

00:16:15.200 how that would go.

00:16:16.460 What if it's me?

00:16:18.600 Why did she tweet it down again

00:16:20.200 the next day?

00:16:21.180 She didn't.

00:16:24.080 She didn't.

00:16:26.520 All right.

00:16:29.240 Could I be wrong about this?

00:16:32.160 What do you think?

00:16:35.020 Apparently you think I could be.

00:16:36.280 All right.

00:16:38.000 Would it make you feel any better

00:16:39.080 if I agree with you on that?

00:16:43.100 I think this is

00:16:44.440 this is within the realm

00:16:46.660 within the realm

00:16:48.660 of something I could be wrong about.

00:16:50.940 I mean, I could be wrong

00:16:51.580 about anything,

00:16:52.260 but it's within the realm.

00:16:54.120 But if I had to put a bet on it,

00:16:56.080 I'd take 10 to 1 odds.

00:16:57.540 I mean, easily.

00:17:02.460 There's no way

00:17:03.080 to actually prove it,

00:17:04.060 so I can't make that bet.

00:17:05.560 But if it were provable

00:17:07.560 in some way

00:17:08.700 that everyone would agree,

00:17:09.720 I'd take 10 to 1 on this one.

00:17:13.320 It's always productive

00:17:14.320 to think of things

00:17:15.160 in terms of the odds

00:17:16.240 instead of, you know,

00:17:17.560 yes, no.

00:17:18.220 It just makes you feel smarter.

00:17:20.600 All right.

00:17:22.040 Russia already lost 0.85

00:17:23.240 the war in Ukraine.

00:17:24.180 This is my thesis for today,

00:17:29.020 and I'm going to call it

00:17:30.620 that as of today,

00:17:33.460 the fog of war

00:17:34.560 is clear enough

00:17:35.720 that while we don't know

00:17:38.460 the details of what will happen,

00:17:41.100 there'll still be some surprises.

00:17:43.100 But I would say

00:17:43.700 that as of today,

00:17:46.060 in my opinion,

00:17:47.220 very subjective, of course,

00:17:48.760 that's what we're doing here,

00:17:50.420 subjective opinions,

00:17:51.480 but in my opinion,

00:17:53.440 it is now completely clear

00:17:55.060 that Russia lost the war.

00:17:58.580 Now, lots more fighting to go on,

00:18:00.760 but I don't think

00:18:01.440 that the end point

00:18:02.460 could be anything but that.

00:18:04.620 And I'll tell you

00:18:05.220 what signals I'm seeing.

00:18:09.100 First of all,

00:18:09.900 let me give you some context.

00:18:11.060 And I keep reminding you of this

00:18:14.860 because I think it was actually

00:18:17.500 pretty interesting.

00:18:19.660 that I think I'm the first person

00:18:22.480 you heard in public say

00:18:23.880 that Russia had some surprises coming.

00:18:26.500 I literally tweeted that.

00:18:28.900 And that the military technology

00:18:31.680 that the Ukrainians had 0.52

00:18:33.780 would be surprisingly effective.

00:18:36.700 And that Russia wasn't going to

00:18:38.120 waltz in there

00:18:38.720 and hold everything in 48 hours.

00:18:42.520 Now, I didn't hear anybody else say it.

00:18:45.920 I didn't hear a military expert say it.

00:18:48.040 I didn't hear anybody say it.

00:18:49.060 And people mocked me for it.

00:18:52.260 Am I correct?

00:18:53.340 You probably saw me getting mocked

00:18:54.940 for saying that the Ukrainians

00:18:56.860 would do a better job than you think

00:18:58.380 because of the technology.

00:19:00.840 And sure enough, here we are.

00:19:03.480 So at this point,

00:19:04.480 would you say that

00:19:05.580 every expert agrees with where I was?

00:19:10.200 Yes, right?

00:19:11.740 It is the technology

00:19:13.240 that's making the difference.

00:19:14.400 Now, I don't want to underrate

00:19:16.860 the Ukrainian resolve

00:19:19.080 and the Ukrainian bravery,

00:19:21.600 which is insane.

00:19:24.680 I mean, you know,

00:19:26.360 you talk about brave people,

00:19:28.880 but the Ukrainians are just,

00:19:30.680 I mean, they're redefining the standard,

00:19:33.100 in my opinion.

00:19:34.040 I mean, it's pretty impressive.

00:19:36.480 You know, I suppose

00:19:37.440 anybody would fight hard

00:19:39.680 for their homeland.

00:19:40.300 So you do expect a tough fight.

00:19:43.960 And so I don't want to minimize that.

00:19:45.540 But the difference would be the weaponry.

00:19:47.820 You know, having lots of resolve

00:19:49.220 wouldn't help you

00:19:49.920 if you didn't have good weapons.

00:19:51.860 Lots of places that get conquered

00:19:53.480 have lots of resolve.

00:19:55.240 They don't have good weapons.

00:19:56.360 So, here are the signs.

00:20:00.280 Number one,

00:20:01.200 there is a fourth general

00:20:02.780 reported killed

00:20:03.840 in the Russian army.

00:20:05.820 Now, I know.

00:20:08.380 Is that believable?

00:20:10.360 Because it sounds exactly like

00:20:12.040 Ukrainian propaganda, doesn't it?

00:20:14.940 A fourth general

00:20:16.280 killed so far?

00:20:19.900 I'm going to say

00:20:21.160 no more than a 50% chance

00:20:24.560 that's true.

00:20:25.380 What do you think?

00:20:27.700 50% chance it's true?

00:20:29.800 Less?

00:20:30.900 I would go less.

00:20:32.180 25%.

00:20:33.380 But it is a sign

00:20:36.760 that the Ukrainians

00:20:38.240 are either killing

00:20:39.140 a lot of generals

00:20:39.880 or they're winning

00:20:41.400 the persuasion war.

00:20:43.460 Because we sort of believe it.

00:20:45.780 It seems believable.

00:20:47.600 I saw a list

00:20:48.540 of all the generals

00:20:49.440 that have died

00:20:50.780 under suspicious circumstance

00:20:52.380 under various Russian leaders.

00:20:56.260 Now, who knows

00:20:56.860 if that little meme

00:20:57.900 was correct.

00:20:59.100 But can somebody confirm

00:21:01.080 that generals

00:21:02.820 seem to fall out of windows

00:21:04.500 and commit suicide a lot 0.75

00:21:05.900 in Russia

00:21:07.600 over the last,

00:21:08.800 let's say, 50 years?

00:21:09.740 So, maybe

00:21:13.860 it's a sign that

00:21:16.000 Putin is killing them

00:21:17.840 himself.

00:21:18.720 Because we know

00:21:19.700 the generals

00:21:20.180 are not performing.

00:21:22.440 So, maybe

00:21:23.260 Putin is killing them.

00:21:25.600 Maybe Putin just calls

00:21:26.820 the number two

00:21:27.880 and says,

00:21:28.880 go kill your 0.98

00:21:29.540 commanding officer

00:21:30.380 and you're in charge now.

00:21:32.520 Maybe.

00:21:32.860 I mean,

00:21:34.600 you can't rule it out.

00:21:38.540 And, you know,

00:21:39.660 somebody just said

00:21:40.220 the Taliban one as well.

00:21:42.140 Yeah,

00:21:42.340 very different situation,

00:21:43.540 but true that.

00:21:46.560 So,

00:21:47.460 all right,

00:21:48.380 so you've got

00:21:49.080 the northern army

00:21:50.940 of Russia

00:21:52.120 seems to be stalled

00:21:53.300 and it does appear

00:21:55.200 that the Ukrainians

00:21:56.100 have cut them off

00:21:56.920 from their supply lines.

00:21:58.360 It does appear

00:21:59.240 that they have

00:21:59.740 low maintenance

00:22:00.320 and the inability

00:22:02.140 to move their

00:22:02.900 big equipment

00:22:03.600 and it appears

00:22:05.880 that moving

00:22:06.760 into the tree line

00:22:07.840 wasn't so much

00:22:09.480 that they could,

00:22:10.260 you know,

00:22:10.400 it's a good place

00:22:10.940 to shell

00:22:11.520 or to fire artillery from.

00:22:15.020 It looks like

00:22:15.660 they're hiding.

00:22:17.300 It looks like

00:22:18.220 they're hiding.

00:22:19.360 At least,

00:22:19.760 that's the current

00:22:20.380 thinking from the people

00:22:21.440 who are observing

00:22:22.100 over there.

00:22:23.440 So,

00:22:23.920 if the northern army

00:22:25.020 is bogged down,

00:22:26.960 they're only a week

00:22:27.800 or two from starving.

00:22:30.320 Now,

00:22:31.360 the Ukrainians

00:22:31.980 are in a pretty

00:22:32.700 desperate situation too,

00:22:34.820 but I suspect

00:22:35.900 that their supply line

00:22:37.480 is holding so far

00:22:38.620 and I doubt

00:22:39.840 that the Russian

00:22:40.600 supply line

00:22:41.280 is holding.

00:22:41.800 They're probably

00:22:42.200 foraging

00:22:42.800 in the Ukrainian

00:22:44.760 countryside

00:22:46.100 for whatever

00:22:46.680 they're getting

00:22:47.180 and they might be

00:22:48.540 just about

00:22:49.020 out of that.

00:22:50.900 However much

00:22:51.600 they can forage

00:22:52.360 has to,

00:22:53.380 you know,

00:22:53.600 that amount

00:22:53.980 is going to decrease

00:22:54.780 really quickly.

00:22:55.720 Mortars

00:23:00.000 are taking out

00:23:00.600 Russian artillery

00:23:01.400 in the woods.

00:23:02.540 Is that happening?

00:23:04.540 Somebody says

00:23:05.020 that's happening?

00:23:05.880 I don't know.

00:23:10.140 So,

00:23:10.800 and I'm seeing

00:23:11.240 in the comments

00:23:11.900 that we've been

00:23:13.280 saying for weeks

00:23:14.260 that they're

00:23:14.960 a week or two

00:23:15.600 from starving,

00:23:17.600 but the,

00:23:18.180 but the wild card

00:23:21.320 there was that

00:23:22.080 they had,

00:23:22.960 that originally

00:23:24.800 they were a week

00:23:25.560 or two

00:23:25.860 from running

00:23:26.380 out of food,

00:23:27.580 but that meant

00:23:28.800 the food

00:23:29.260 that they brought

00:23:29.800 with them.

00:23:31.020 It looks like

00:23:31.920 they can extend

00:23:32.740 it by foraging

00:23:33.760 and stealing stuff

00:23:34.700 from,

00:23:35.100 you know,

00:23:35.380 the locals.

00:23:36.340 But their ability

00:23:37.340 to do that,

00:23:38.280 presumably,

00:23:39.840 is going to,

00:23:40.880 you know,

00:23:41.420 fall off a cliff

00:23:42.380 pretty soon

00:23:43.000 because the locals

00:23:43.720 will pull all

00:23:44.420 their food back

00:23:45.260 as far away

00:23:46.280 as they can

00:23:46.860 or destroy it

00:23:48.120 or it'll all

00:23:49.400 get eaten.

00:23:50.460 So,

00:23:51.060 it does seem

00:23:51.720 like the first

00:23:52.720 few weeks

00:23:53.400 they weren't

00:23:54.340 likely to starve

00:23:55.200 because they

00:23:55.820 could always,

00:23:56.240 you know,

00:23:56.400 reduce their

00:23:56.940 rations and

00:23:57.600 forage and

00:23:58.060 stuff.

00:23:58.720 But I feel

00:23:59.280 like we

00:23:59.640 reached the

00:24:00.120 point where

00:24:01.100 the next two

00:24:01.740 weeks they're

00:24:02.200 just going to

00:24:02.600 starve.

00:24:04.460 And I think

00:24:05.180 they might be

00:24:05.680 killing their

00:24:06.140 own generals

00:24:06.920 at this point.

00:24:11.100 Here's a

00:24:11.760 question for you

00:24:12.980 and it might

00:24:13.760 require somebody

00:24:14.580 with Vietnam

00:24:15.320 experience.

00:24:17.280 Are there any

00:24:17.760 Vietnam vets

00:24:18.740 watching right now?

00:24:20.900 People who

00:24:21.360 actually were

00:24:22.140 in combat

00:24:22.820 in Vietnam.

00:24:24.160 Because here's

00:24:24.980 something that I

00:24:25.540 heard from a

00:24:26.200 Vietnam vet

00:24:27.080 years ago.

00:24:29.160 That the news

00:24:30.480 will never tell

00:24:31.260 you how often

00:24:32.340 people kill

00:24:34.100 their own

00:24:34.620 senior officer.

00:24:37.160 They do it

00:24:38.120 in the field.

00:24:38.820 They just,

00:24:39.320 you know,

00:24:39.620 drop a grenade

00:24:40.320 and it looks

00:24:40.900 like it happened

00:24:41.500 from the other

00:24:42.100 side.

00:24:43.260 Yeah,

00:24:43.480 fragging.

00:24:45.220 Now,

00:24:46.540 does anybody

00:24:48.000 know how often

00:24:48.800 that happens?

00:24:49.380 It happens

00:24:51.600 enough that

00:24:52.100 there's a word

00:24:52.700 for it.

00:24:53.960 I can tell you

00:24:54.940 that the guy

00:24:55.600 who told me

00:24:56.320 about it

00:24:57.040 told me he

00:24:58.360 did it.

00:25:00.680 Not to his

00:25:01.540 commanding officer

00:25:02.340 but to someone

00:25:03.400 else he had a

00:25:04.060 problem with.

00:25:05.840 He actually

00:25:06.160 said,

00:25:09.240 now I don't

00:25:09.620 know if it's

00:25:09.940 true,

00:25:10.240 it's just

00:25:10.500 something that

00:25:11.060 somebody told

00:25:11.760 me.

00:25:12.380 And remember,

00:25:12.880 this is a story

00:25:13.580 about himself.

00:25:15.120 It's not a

00:25:15.660 third party story.

00:25:16.520 actually admitted

00:25:18.120 murdering somebody

00:25:19.380 in his own

00:25:19.880 squad with

00:25:21.080 other people.

00:25:22.060 They just

00:25:22.600 agreed to

00:25:23.080 murder somebody.

00:25:24.680 And they

00:25:24.960 just murdered

00:25:25.400 him.

00:25:26.560 And later

00:25:27.060 they just

00:25:27.400 talked about

00:25:27.880 it.

00:25:28.000 Yeah,

00:25:28.400 they murdered

00:25:28.980 him.

00:25:30.880 And so

00:25:33.080 does that

00:25:33.640 not happen

00:25:34.320 in other

00:25:34.800 military?

00:25:36.240 Is that

00:25:36.840 something unique

00:25:37.640 to the

00:25:38.020 American

00:25:38.340 military?

00:25:38.960 I doubt

00:25:39.320 it.

00:25:40.060 Seems like

00:25:40.580 that would

00:25:40.860 be something

00:25:41.280 that happens

00:25:42.060 in a lot

00:25:42.480 of militaries.

00:25:43.200 And I

00:25:44.220 can't imagine

00:25:44.780 a place

00:25:45.160 that would

00:25:45.420 be more

00:25:45.820 likely to

00:25:46.380 happen than

00:25:47.780 a bogged

00:25:48.400 down,

00:25:48.880 starving

00:25:49.400 Russian army

00:25:50.400 whose mission

00:25:51.940 they just

00:25:52.460 found out

00:25:53.020 is to kill

00:25:53.640 people who

00:25:54.160 look and

00:25:54.620 sound just

00:25:55.100 like him.

00:25:57.780 I've got a

00:25:58.720 feeling that

00:25:59.420 morale is

00:26:01.020 pretty low.

00:26:02.440 So I don't

00:26:03.160 know if these

00:26:03.660 generals are

00:26:04.280 being shot

00:26:04.780 by Putin,

00:26:05.860 shot by their

00:26:06.440 own forces,

00:26:07.280 or shot by

00:26:07.880 Ukrainians,

00:26:08.900 or not shot

00:26:10.100 at all and

00:26:10.720 the entire

00:26:11.100 thing was made

00:26:11.720 up.

00:26:12.000 All possible

00:26:13.740 and all

00:26:14.960 point in the

00:26:15.420 same direction.

00:26:17.040 So in other

00:26:17.440 words, you

00:26:17.700 don't even

00:26:18.040 need to know

00:26:18.560 if any

00:26:19.120 real generals

00:26:19.780 at all

00:26:20.160 were killed.

00:26:21.340 If the

00:26:21.740 only thing

00:26:22.140 that happens

00:26:22.580 is that the

00:26:23.940 Ukrainians

00:26:24.640 have owned

00:26:26.020 the news

00:26:26.960 cycle so

00:26:28.020 totally that

00:26:29.660 it's being

00:26:30.080 reported as

00:26:30.900 news, and

00:26:32.500 maybe it

00:26:33.020 just didn't

00:26:33.320 even happen,

00:26:34.680 that also

00:26:35.600 signals that

00:26:36.400 Russia's in 1.00

00:26:38.100 a lot of

00:26:38.600 trouble,

00:26:39.680 right, if

00:26:40.600 they can't

00:26:40.920 even control

00:26:41.460 something like

00:26:42.040 that.

00:26:43.780 So we're

00:26:44.660 seeing, of

00:26:45.220 course, that

00:26:45.620 it looks like

00:26:47.140 Kiev is going

00:26:47.980 to hold, it

00:26:48.600 looks like more

00:26:49.060 weapons are

00:26:49.560 going in, it

00:26:50.220 looks like the

00:26:50.780 sanctions are

00:26:51.520 crushing, and

00:26:53.560 I don't know

00:26:54.740 if Russia has

00:26:56.580 quite realized

00:26:57.480 that there's no

00:26:59.500 such thing as 0.74

00:27:00.160 making a deal

00:27:00.880 where the

00:27:01.240 sanctions go

00:27:01.920 away.

00:27:02.200 Do you think

00:27:04.480 they realize

00:27:05.040 that that's not

00:27:05.700 a possibility?

00:27:07.460 If the

00:27:08.380 sanctions go

00:27:09.080 away, then you

00:27:10.520 can never

00:27:10.960 use them

00:27:11.440 again.

00:27:12.800 Let me

00:27:13.080 say that

00:27:13.420 again.

00:27:14.980 If the

00:27:15.760 sanctions are

00:27:16.540 what, you

00:27:17.140 know, cause

00:27:17.760 some kind

00:27:18.800 of a good

00:27:19.240 result from

00:27:19.940 the Ukrainian

00:27:20.420 point of

00:27:20.860 view, they

00:27:22.420 could never

00:27:23.140 be used

00:27:23.880 again, ever.

00:27:25.880 They would

00:27:26.240 never be used

00:27:27.060 if they're

00:27:27.420 temporary.

00:27:28.780 They have to

00:27:29.660 be permanent.

00:27:31.040 Now, permanent

00:27:31.620 means as long

00:27:32.380 as Putin's in

00:27:33.000 office, you

00:27:33.980 know, which

00:27:34.220 could be 30

00:27:34.840 years.

00:27:35.160 So, there

00:27:39.700 has to be a

00:27:40.420 standard set

00:27:41.340 that you

00:27:42.200 can't make

00:27:42.780 peace in

00:27:43.980 return for

00:27:44.700 lowering

00:27:45.220 sanctions.

00:27:46.340 The only

00:27:46.960 thing you

00:27:47.360 can do is

00:27:47.800 make peace

00:27:48.340 in return for

00:27:48.960 peace.

00:27:50.160 Because I'm

00:27:51.380 going to make

00:27:51.700 a prediction,

00:27:53.360 and it's

00:27:53.700 based on the

00:27:54.300 fact that

00:27:55.480 Zelensky, I

00:27:57.180 think he just

00:27:57.700 announced, or

00:27:59.240 it's being

00:27:59.580 reported, I

00:28:00.220 don't know if

00:28:00.500 he announced

00:28:00.860 it, it's

00:28:01.480 being reported

00:28:02.100 that the

00:28:02.700 Ukrainians are 1.00

00:28:03.420 going on

00:28:03.900 offense.

00:28:05.500 What would

00:28:06.240 that tell

00:28:06.760 you?

00:28:08.680 If the

00:28:09.400 Ukrainians are 1.00

00:28:10.140 going on

00:28:10.560 offense

00:28:11.080 anywhere, what

00:28:13.240 does that

00:28:13.600 tell you?

00:28:14.760 Probably

00:28:15.320 tells you

00:28:15.860 that some

00:28:16.300 of the

00:28:16.580 army is

00:28:17.040 trapped,

00:28:18.140 probably

00:28:18.580 tells you

00:28:19.080 that they've

00:28:19.640 taken out

00:28:20.460 their supply

00:28:21.880 lines, it

00:28:23.600 probably tells

00:28:24.360 you that the

00:28:24.940 new weapons

00:28:25.520 coming in

00:28:26.160 from, you

00:28:27.580 know, NATO

00:28:28.100 sources is

00:28:29.580 good stuff and

00:28:30.620 plenty of

00:28:31.180 it, and it

00:28:33.020 does look

00:28:33.660 like Zelensky

00:28:34.540 is looking

00:28:34.980 for a

00:28:35.380 clean win.

00:28:36.800 And by

00:28:37.120 the way, I

00:28:37.560 think he's

00:28:37.940 saying that

00:28:38.400 now out

00:28:38.860 loud.

00:28:40.500 I just

00:28:41.180 read an

00:28:41.640 interview, I

00:28:42.400 think it

00:28:42.620 was on

00:28:42.860 CNN, with

00:28:44.020 David

00:28:44.820 Petraeus,

00:28:45.720 General

00:28:46.040 Petraeus.

00:28:47.900 Petraeus

00:28:48.420 talks about

00:28:49.140 the four

00:28:50.140 possible

00:28:50.660 outcomes in

00:28:52.140 Ukraine.

00:28:54.000 For the

00:28:54.740 first time,

00:28:55.520 at least that

00:28:57.420 I saw, a 0.51

00:28:58.740 general who

00:28:59.500 knows what

00:28:59.900 he's doing

00:29:00.360 said, the

00:29:02.240 fourth

00:29:02.620 possibility is

00:29:04.120 that Ukraine 0.91

00:29:04.820 wins outright.

00:29:08.480 Petraeus

00:29:09.080 said that.

00:29:11.240 Now, again,

00:29:13.560 the first

00:29:14.280 person you

00:29:14.740 heard say

00:29:15.100 it was me.

00:29:17.460 The second

00:29:18.300 person was

00:29:18.960 General

00:29:19.680 Petraeus.

00:29:20.640 Now, he's

00:29:21.120 not predicting

00:29:21.680 it.

00:29:22.520 Let me be

00:29:23.140 clear.

00:29:23.400 He's not

00:29:23.780 predicting

00:29:24.160 that.

00:29:25.300 But he

00:29:26.020 has added

00:29:26.540 it to the

00:29:27.140 option set

00:29:27.840 now.

00:29:28.620 It's one

00:29:29.180 of the

00:29:29.420 things that

00:29:29.800 could happen.

00:29:30.900 Now, who

00:29:31.200 was talking

00:29:31.760 about that

00:29:32.840 happening?

00:29:35.640 Whoever

00:29:36.120 talked about

00:29:36.800 that?

00:29:37.520 That the

00:29:37.860 actual

00:29:38.140 possibility of

00:29:39.060 Ukraine winning

00:29:39.800 militarily?

00:29:40.840 I'll tell you

00:29:41.540 what it looks

00:29:41.940 to me.

00:29:43.400 I think

00:29:44.100 Ukraine is

00:29:44.760 going to

00:29:45.400 take out

00:29:46.720 some big

00:29:48.540 Russian

00:29:50.240 units,

00:29:52.140 you know,

00:29:52.340 just really,

00:29:53.380 really get

00:29:54.360 some victories.

00:29:55.560 Because if

00:29:56.380 Ukraine gets 0.72

00:29:57.080 something that

00:29:57.760 looks like a

00:29:58.520 straight-up,

00:30:00.360 straight-ahead

00:30:01.140 military victory,

00:30:03.200 what is that

00:30:04.080 going to do

00:30:04.440 to the rest

00:30:05.000 of the

00:30:05.400 Russian army

00:30:06.400 that is

00:30:07.520 starved and

00:30:08.360 trapped?

00:30:11.820 It's

00:30:12.340 starting to

00:30:12.880 look like

00:30:14.100 Ukraine is

00:30:14.760 playing for

00:30:15.220 the wind,

00:30:16.620 wouldn't you

00:30:17.520 say?

00:30:20.280 Now,

00:30:21.320 of course,

00:30:22.680 you're going

00:30:22.920 to say,

00:30:23.480 what does

00:30:24.420 winning look

00:30:24.960 like if your

00:30:25.620 cities are

00:30:26.140 flattened?

00:30:26.720 Russia plans

00:30:27.800 to go all

00:30:28.380 grozny,

00:30:29.280 and they're

00:30:29.720 just going

00:30:30.040 to depopulate

00:30:32.320 and destroy 0.82

00:30:33.100 it.

00:30:33.500 I think that

00:30:34.040 will happen

00:30:34.480 too.

00:30:35.340 Well, I mean,

00:30:35.780 it is happening.

00:30:36.860 There's no

00:30:37.200 question.

00:30:38.700 But who's

00:30:40.460 going to

00:30:40.740 rebuild?

00:30:42.700 Do you

00:30:43.240 think Ukraine

00:30:43.940 will rebuild

00:30:44.700 faster?

00:30:45.960 Or Russia?

00:30:47.400 Because Russia 0.80

00:30:48.020 is going to

00:30:48.360 have sanctions

00:30:49.040 forever,

00:30:50.760 unless they

00:30:52.740 take a

00:30:53.040 whole bunch

00:30:53.380 of money

00:30:53.740 from China.

00:30:55.320 And how

00:30:55.900 much do

00:30:56.260 they want

00:30:56.560 to do

00:30:56.760 that?

00:30:58.140 Because,

00:30:58.640 you know,

00:30:58.920 you don't

00:30:59.200 want to

00:30:59.440 owe China 0.99

00:30:59.960 too much.

00:31:02.460 I think

00:31:03.060 the Ukrainians

00:31:03.840 control public

00:31:05.440 opinion to

00:31:06.020 the point

00:31:06.400 where Europe

00:31:08.060 and the

00:31:08.500 United States

00:31:09.240 and other

00:31:10.140 countries will

00:31:10.920 help them

00:31:11.440 rebuild.

00:31:13.220 Because if

00:31:13.840 they get

00:31:14.120 something that

00:31:14.680 looks like,

00:31:15.340 you know,

00:31:15.640 they could be

00:31:16.080 peaceful for a

00:31:16.860 while,

00:31:17.100 I think there

00:31:18.980 would be

00:31:19.180 plenty of

00:31:19.760 investment.

00:31:20.900 But Russia

00:31:21.460 won't have

00:31:21.940 that capability.

00:31:24.060 So, yes,

00:31:25.280 it looks like

00:31:26.120 Ukraine will 0.90

00:31:26.920 be flattened.

00:31:28.820 I don't think

00:31:29.920 there's a way

00:31:30.360 to avoid

00:31:31.540 that.

00:31:32.780 But it

00:31:34.040 does look

00:31:34.640 like,

00:31:35.060 and their

00:31:35.400 losses will

00:31:36.300 be horrific,

00:31:38.020 but it does

00:31:38.620 look like

00:31:39.060 they're going

00:31:39.360 to come

00:31:39.620 out of this

00:31:40.100 in better

00:31:40.540 shape.

00:31:41.400 In other

00:31:41.760 words,

00:31:42.020 they'll be

00:31:42.300 more flattened,

00:31:43.160 but they'll

00:31:43.540 recover faster.

00:31:44.440 I don't see

00:31:44.800 Russia recovering

00:31:45.560 while Putin's

00:31:46.780 in office.

00:31:49.760 Now, I

00:31:52.540 see many

00:31:52.920 of you

00:31:53.360 doing

00:31:53.960 essentially

00:31:55.480 the comment

00:31:57.140 equivalent

00:31:57.820 of eye

00:31:58.300 rolling,

00:31:58.980 like,

00:31:59.600 who is

00:32:00.360 this guy

00:32:01.020 about me?

00:32:05.080 But I

00:32:05.820 remind you

00:32:06.420 that contrarian

00:32:07.900 predictions are

00:32:09.680 kind of what

00:32:10.300 I do.

00:32:11.620 Sort of

00:32:12.260 evolved into

00:32:13.020 that.

00:32:13.880 Now, they're

00:32:14.260 not always

00:32:14.640 right,

00:32:15.900 so if you

00:32:17.220 think I'm

00:32:17.560 always right,

00:32:18.120 I don't

00:32:19.700 think I'm

00:32:20.040 always right.

00:32:21.660 But I

00:32:22.340 do think

00:32:22.640 it is

00:32:22.880 important to

00:32:23.660 put it

00:32:24.040 out there.

00:32:24.580 So at

00:32:24.800 this point,

00:32:25.480 here's my

00:32:26.480 take on

00:32:26.920 this.

00:32:28.320 I think

00:32:29.220 that the

00:32:29.840 Russian army

00:32:30.460 is such

00:32:30.980 a mess

00:32:31.480 that the

00:32:32.860 well-trained

00:32:34.220 Ukrainians

00:32:35.040 with the

00:32:36.220 support,

00:32:36.940 logistical

00:32:37.420 support of

00:32:38.360 NATO,

00:32:39.320 is actually

00:32:40.380 going to

00:32:40.660 take them

00:32:40.960 out.

00:32:42.280 That's my

00:32:42.980 prediction.

00:32:45.640 Did I

00:32:46.440 convince

00:32:47.660 anybody?

00:32:48.120 anybody?

00:32:52.960 I'm

00:32:53.480 seeing

00:32:53.720 interesting.

00:32:56.020 There seems

00:32:56.500 to be a

00:32:56.860 difference

00:32:57.240 between

00:32:57.840 mostly

00:33:00.660 no's,

00:33:01.960 some

00:33:02.280 yes's.

00:33:09.580 Trump's

00:33:10.140 full send

00:33:10.940 interview is

00:33:11.560 taken down

00:33:12.080 by YouTube.

00:33:13.200 Is that

00:33:13.480 true?

00:33:16.580 Yes,

00:33:17.180 what I

00:33:17.480 think is

00:33:17.880 irrelevant.

00:33:18.480 You are

00:33:18.720 correct.

00:33:20.060 Well,

00:33:20.280 you're

00:33:20.420 watching me.

00:33:20.960 Why are

00:33:21.180 you doing

00:33:21.460 that?

00:33:25.320 Reparations?

00:33:25.960 Yeah,

00:33:26.160 maybe.

00:33:26.400 I think the

00:33:27.860 Ukrainians are 1.00

00:33:28.520 going to ask

00:33:28.800 for reparations,

00:33:29.700 but Russia

00:33:30.280 won't have

00:33:30.640 any money

00:33:30.980 to repair

00:33:31.620 anything.

00:33:32.460 All right,

00:33:32.660 the other

00:33:32.920 funny story

00:33:33.500 from this

00:33:33.900 is that

00:33:34.380 Elon Musk,

00:33:35.320 as you know,

00:33:36.320 challenged

00:33:36.800 Putin to

00:33:37.680 a physical

00:33:39.320 fight on

00:33:42.380 Twitter and

00:33:43.360 said that

00:33:43.800 he meant

00:33:44.100 it.

00:33:44.280 And then

00:33:45.420 the head

00:33:47.000 of the

00:33:47.360 Chechens 1.00

00:33:48.000 offered to

00:33:50.100 train Elon

00:33:50.980 Musk and

00:33:52.220 then insulted

00:33:53.020 him by calling

00:33:54.040 him effeminate

00:33:54.800 and basically

00:33:55.460 calling him a

00:33:56.220 woman because 1.00

00:33:56.920 it turns out

00:33:58.000 the Chechens

00:33:58.700 are very

00:34:00.400 sexist. 0.58

00:34:01.000 you might

00:34:03.460 not know

00:34:03.820 that,

00:34:04.760 but the

00:34:05.140 Chechens,

00:34:05.840 they believe

00:34:06.720 that men

00:34:08.960 can fight

00:34:09.460 better than

00:34:09.880 women, 1.00

00:34:11.620 and so

00:34:11.900 for them

00:34:12.320 an insult

00:34:13.760 is to

00:34:14.820 call a

00:34:15.420 man who

00:34:15.760 wants to

00:34:16.080 fight

00:34:16.320 equivalent

00:34:17.500 to a

00:34:17.860 woman.

00:34:18.720 Now,

00:34:19.120 they have

00:34:19.380 not learned

00:34:19.860 as we

00:34:20.220 have learned

00:34:20.760 in the

00:34:21.760 United States,

00:34:22.920 and we

00:34:23.280 learned this

00:34:23.680 from science

00:34:24.180 fiction,

00:34:25.080 that on

00:34:26.140 any science

00:34:26.740 fiction TV

00:34:27.560 or movie,

00:34:28.820 a 95

00:34:29.520 pound woman 1.00

00:34:30.360 can beat

00:34:31.780 a 200

00:34:32.380 pound man

00:34:33.160 every time,

00:34:34.860 really,

00:34:35.360 every time.

00:34:37.260 So,

00:34:38.000 they don't

00:34:38.380 know that,

00:34:38.820 I guess,

00:34:39.160 the Chechens.

00:34:40.100 They don't

00:34:40.380 have TV

00:34:40.840 over there,

00:34:41.340 I guess.

00:34:43.580 But anyway,

00:34:44.880 so the

00:34:45.300 Chechen guy,

00:34:46.160 in a mocking

00:34:47.160 way,

00:34:48.260 offers to

00:34:48.800 train Elon

00:34:49.560 Musk and

00:34:50.200 renames

00:34:51.360 Elon Musk

00:34:52.280 Ilona.

00:34:55.420 So he

00:34:56.180 nicknames

00:34:56.660 Elon Ilona

00:34:57.820 to insult

00:34:58.820 him for

00:34:59.340 his

00:34:59.660 woman-like 0.97

00:35:01.720 presence,

00:35:03.120 I guess.

00:35:04.860 Elon Musk,

00:35:05.920 being Elon

00:35:06.780 Musk,

00:35:07.480 immediately

00:35:07.880 changes his

00:35:08.780 Twitter profile

00:35:09.820 to Ilona,

00:35:11.260 and, of

00:35:14.080 course,

00:35:14.400 tweets back.

00:35:16.080 Of course.

00:35:18.800 And he

00:35:19.300 thanks him

00:35:20.000 for the

00:35:20.360 offer,

00:35:20.760 but thinks

00:35:21.360 that it

00:35:22.620 would make

00:35:22.960 it unfair

00:35:23.400 if he got

00:35:24.040 any special

00:35:24.640 training,

00:35:25.240 because it's

00:35:25.700 already so

00:35:26.220 unfair.

00:35:26.520 there.

00:35:27.800 Now,

00:35:28.540 after I

00:35:29.500 saw this,

00:35:30.980 I immediately

00:35:32.520 said to

00:35:32.920 myself,

00:35:33.560 you know,

00:35:33.820 as one

00:35:34.240 does,

00:35:35.140 if Elon

00:35:36.160 Musk really 0.94

00:35:36.820 gets to

00:35:37.260 fight Putin

00:35:37.780 one-on-one,

00:35:39.040 I'd like to

00:35:40.060 get in on

00:35:40.540 this,

00:35:40.860 and I've

00:35:41.360 challenged

00:35:41.780 Lavrov,

00:35:44.320 their foreign 0.75

00:35:45.040 minister,

00:35:45.440 I think I

00:35:47.860 could take

00:35:48.200 Lavrov

00:35:48.720 one-on-one.

00:35:50.240 Now,

00:35:50.560 he looks

00:35:50.840 kind of

00:35:51.160 big,

00:35:52.140 to be

00:35:52.440 honest.

00:35:52.900 He looks

00:35:53.160 like he's

00:35:53.540 probably 6'4

00:35:55.100 or something,

00:35:56.420 but he

00:35:57.580 smokes,

00:35:59.000 and I'm

00:36:00.020 wiry.

00:36:02.320 Sure,

00:36:03.120 I'm not

00:36:03.660 that big,

00:36:05.120 but would

00:36:05.680 you want

00:36:05.940 to fight

00:36:06.220 me?

00:36:06.980 I'm wiry,

00:36:07.740 I tell you,

00:36:08.240 I'm wiry.

00:36:09.860 I could

00:36:10.480 take him

00:36:10.900 in two

00:36:11.900 rounds,

00:36:12.300 I think.

00:36:13.760 And so,

00:36:14.860 oh,

00:36:15.140 you don't

00:36:15.420 need Joe

00:36:15.840 Rogan for

00:36:16.360 this.

00:36:16.660 If somebody

00:36:16.980 says Joe

00:36:17.500 Rogan,

00:36:18.200 come on.

00:36:20.240 That would

00:36:21.080 be too

00:36:21.340 easy.

00:36:22.280 You want

00:36:22.840 at least

00:36:23.120 something that

00:36:23.620 you do a

00:36:23.960 pay-per-view,

00:36:24.560 right?

00:36:25.420 Joe Rogan,

00:36:26.100 that's like a

00:36:26.620 12-second

00:36:27.420 fight,

00:36:28.180 including

00:36:28.960 introduction.

00:36:30.540 You know,

00:36:30.840 I'd at least

00:36:31.880 make it

00:36:32.220 interesting,

00:36:32.960 but I

00:36:33.320 think I

00:36:33.620 could take

00:36:33.960 him.

00:36:34.860 Because,

00:36:35.500 do you

00:36:35.760 know why

00:36:35.980 I could

00:36:36.240 take him?

00:36:37.860 I'm

00:36:38.260 wiry.

00:36:39.500 It's

00:36:39.680 because I'm

00:36:40.000 wiry.

00:36:41.420 He'd

00:36:41.820 never see

00:36:42.180 it coming.

00:36:46.500 Now,

00:36:47.640 my real

00:36:48.580 trick,

00:36:49.060 the way I

00:36:49.580 beat

00:36:49.740 Lavrov is

00:36:50.800 if I

00:36:52.600 go directly

00:36:53.220 at him,

00:36:53.740 he's going

00:36:54.040 to see

00:36:54.260 it coming,

00:36:54.760 and that's

00:36:55.000 no good.

00:36:55.660 So what

00:36:55.960 I'm going

00:36:56.160 to try

00:36:56.360 to do

00:36:56.700 is I'm

00:36:57.140 going to

00:36:57.340 try to

00:36:58.460 lure

00:36:59.560 Lavrov

00:37:00.460 into

00:37:01.080 attacking me

00:37:02.460 in my

00:37:02.900 own home.

00:37:04.940 Because once

00:37:05.700 I get him

00:37:06.100 onto my

00:37:06.560 home territory,

00:37:08.800 I'm going

00:37:09.140 to have

00:37:09.300 some

00:37:09.500 advantage.

00:37:11.760 And

00:37:12.080 once he's

00:37:14.840 in my

00:37:15.380 home,

00:37:16.060 I'm going

00:37:16.440 to trap

00:37:17.520 him there

00:37:17.900 and cut

00:37:18.200 off his

00:37:18.560 supply lines.

00:37:19.740 And I'm

00:37:21.040 going to

00:37:21.200 wait until

00:37:21.540 he starts

00:37:21.940 to starve,

00:37:23.560 and then I'm

00:37:24.780 going to

00:37:24.960 kill him.

00:37:26.520 I'm going

00:37:27.140 to attack.

00:37:28.480 He'll never

00:37:29.140 see this

00:37:29.540 coming.

00:37:31.800 Who would

00:37:32.540 ever think

00:37:33.640 of a plan

00:37:34.260 where you

00:37:34.980 invite the

00:37:36.120 stronger person

00:37:36.900 into your

00:37:37.400 house,

00:37:38.760 cut off his

00:37:39.360 supply lines

00:37:40.260 until he

00:37:41.780 starves,

00:37:43.480 then you

00:37:44.040 surround him

00:37:44.560 and kill him?

00:37:45.080 Who would

00:37:45.660 ever think

00:37:46.060 of that?

00:37:46.360 Zelensky,

00:37:49.360 Zelensky.

00:37:51.660 All right.

00:37:53.180 So apparently

00:37:54.480 here's another

00:37:55.560 indication that

00:37:56.460 Russia has 0.96

00:37:57.000 lost the

00:37:57.480 war.

00:37:58.520 They said

00:37:59.160 they were

00:37:59.580 talking about

00:38:00.920 maybe Ukraine

00:38:02.060 would have a

00:38:02.600 neutrality like

00:38:03.500 a Switzerland or

00:38:04.480 Sweden model.

00:38:06.120 Hey, there's

00:38:07.080 something I

00:38:07.660 suggested on

00:38:08.960 day one.

00:38:09.420 but apparently

00:38:13.020 the Ukrainians

00:38:13.920 have rejected

00:38:14.960 the neutrality

00:38:16.680 offer.

00:38:18.060 Why do you

00:38:18.880 reject an

00:38:19.680 offer like

00:38:20.460 that?

00:38:22.020 Why would

00:38:22.660 you reject

00:38:23.500 an offer

00:38:24.060 for peace

00:38:24.880 when your

00:38:25.440 country is

00:38:26.000 under so

00:38:26.820 much attack?

00:38:28.280 Why would

00:38:29.120 you do it

00:38:29.780 because they're

00:38:32.540 winning?

00:38:33.720 That's why.

00:38:34.620 I don't

00:38:37.380 think Ukraine

00:38:38.140 wants the

00:38:38.780 world to

00:38:39.240 know they're

00:38:39.600 winning yet

00:38:40.340 because if

00:38:42.060 they find out

00:38:42.860 too soon

00:38:43.300 we're going

00:38:43.840 to stop

00:38:44.140 giving them

00:38:44.540 weapons.

00:38:46.000 So I

00:38:46.260 think Ukraine

00:38:46.940 is already

00:38:48.000 turning things

00:38:49.820 their way

00:38:50.680 but I don't

00:38:51.920 think they

00:38:52.300 want to say

00:38:52.920 it yet.

00:38:54.180 I think the

00:38:55.100 time to say

00:38:55.760 it is after

00:38:56.360 they've wiped

00:38:56.940 out a

00:38:58.340 division of

00:38:59.120 Russia's 0.70

00:39:00.080 finest fighters

00:39:00.900 or something.

00:39:02.160 After they've

00:39:03.420 done something

00:39:04.000 that is

00:39:04.300 militarily

00:39:04.980 surprising

00:39:06.320 you know

00:39:07.260 just like

00:39:07.780 a big

00:39:08.100 victory

00:39:08.500 then

00:39:10.780 Zelensky's

00:39:13.120 going to

00:39:13.360 say

00:39:13.640 no deal

00:39:15.440 no deal

00:39:17.380 you might

00:39:20.660 even ask

00:39:21.060 for reparations

00:39:21.960 you never

00:39:22.420 know

00:39:22.640 you wouldn't

00:39:23.140 get them

00:39:23.420 but might

00:39:24.160 ask for

00:39:24.800 them.

00:39:29.380 So the

00:39:30.220 UK

00:39:31.060 somebody in

00:39:32.960 the UK

00:39:33.280 is

00:39:33.700 I don't

00:39:34.160 know if

00:39:34.380 it's

00:39:34.580 sources

00:39:35.220 or intel

00:39:36.000 or somebody

00:39:36.500 thinks Russia 0.66

00:39:37.680 will run

00:39:38.140 out of

00:39:38.440 manpower

00:39:38.960 in 14

00:39:39.600 days.

00:39:40.060 I don't

00:39:40.220 know what

00:39:40.440 they mean

00:39:40.720 by manpower

00:39:41.440 does that

00:39:42.480 mean people

00:39:42.900 starve

00:39:43.320 or they're

00:39:44.880 stuck

00:39:45.280 so they

00:39:45.900 just don't

00:39:47.040 have enough

00:39:47.400 people to

00:39:47.800 fight

00:39:48.020 but one

00:39:48.700 of the

00:39:48.880 things that

00:39:49.420 Petraeus

00:39:50.760 said

00:39:51.060 is that

00:39:52.340 in order

00:39:52.780 to conquer

00:39:54.140 and hold

00:39:54.700 a city

00:39:55.120 you need

00:39:55.580 five times

00:39:56.400 as many

00:39:56.820 soldiers

00:39:57.220 as Russia

00:39:59.440 has

00:39:59.860 so

00:40:01.420 connect

00:40:02.380 the dots

00:40:02.960 do you

00:40:05.140 believe that

00:40:05.640 Petraeus

00:40:06.160 is correct

00:40:06.880 that

00:40:08.120 holding

00:40:09.140 territory

00:40:10.980 takes

00:40:11.600 five times

00:40:12.860 as many

00:40:13.260 soldiers

00:40:13.640 as there

00:40:14.620 are there

00:40:15.080 I feel

00:40:16.420 like

00:40:16.740 that's

00:40:18.140 something

00:40:18.460 that you

00:40:18.860 know

00:40:19.180 and the

00:40:20.020 problem

00:40:20.300 is that

00:40:20.740 you have

00:40:21.080 to have

00:40:21.680 somebody

00:40:22.020 stay

00:40:22.580 every time

00:40:23.700 you conquer

00:40:24.200 something

00:40:24.620 so you

00:40:26.100 can't take

00:40:26.540 the same

00:40:27.000 force

00:40:27.440 and just

00:40:27.780 like move

00:40:28.460 through a

00:40:29.000 city

00:40:29.320 some of

00:40:30.580 that force

00:40:31.160 and a lot

00:40:31.540 of it

00:40:31.720 has to

00:40:32.080 stay

00:40:32.420 every time

00:40:32.920 you conquer

00:40:33.360 something

00:40:33.720 so you

00:40:34.660 need five

00:40:35.260 times as

00:40:35.740 many people

00:40:36.420 as it

00:40:37.720 takes to

00:40:38.220 conquer

00:40:38.560 the first

00:40:39.020 block

00:40:39.600 because you're

00:40:40.720 using up

00:40:41.220 your people

00:40:41.720 to hold

00:40:42.620 it as you

00:40:43.240 go

00:40:43.540 so that

00:40:44.880 makes perfect

00:40:45.460 sense

00:40:45.820 right

00:40:46.080 you would

00:40:47.280 expect

00:40:47.820 Petraeus

00:40:49.040 would know

00:40:49.640 that it's

00:40:51.520 a basic

00:40:51.860 math fact

00:40:52.860 right

00:40:53.160 it's just

00:40:53.560 math

00:40:53.980 now of

00:40:55.000 course if

00:40:55.320 they level

00:40:55.760 the city

00:40:56.140 that's a

00:40:56.480 different

00:40:56.680 calculation

00:40:57.240 but to

00:40:58.100 hold it

00:40:58.620 which is

00:41:00.180 all they

00:41:00.500 seem to

00:41:00.860 want

00:41:01.260 can't

00:41:02.480 really do

00:41:02.820 it

00:41:03.040 so since

00:41:05.440 we know

00:41:05.760 Russia can't 0.99

00:41:06.380 hold it

00:41:06.900 and it

00:41:08.260 looks like

00:41:08.640 the Ukrainians

00:41:09.440 will have

00:41:09.860 infinite

00:41:10.380 support

00:41:11.040 you know

00:41:11.640 to keep

00:41:11.980 them fed

00:41:12.580 and armed

00:41:13.760 from the

00:41:14.400 outside

00:41:14.880 there doesn't

00:41:17.180 seem to be

00:41:17.800 and Russia

00:41:18.480 is running

00:41:18.860 out of

00:41:19.100 manpower

00:41:19.580 some are

00:41:20.020 estimating

00:41:20.540 it doesn't

00:41:21.920 seem there's

00:41:22.300 any way for

00:41:22.820 Russia to

00:41:23.200 win this

00:41:23.680 I think

00:41:24.580 it's already

00:41:25.040 over

00:41:25.380 over in the

00:41:27.180 sense that

00:41:27.580 you know

00:41:27.880 how it

00:41:28.220 can end

00:41:28.660 and it's

00:41:30.560 not good

00:41:30.920 for Russia

00:41:31.340 in any way

00:41:32.300 I saw

00:41:32.940 Ian Bremmer

00:41:33.600 also tweeting

00:41:34.600 that whatever

00:41:36.280 it looks like

00:41:36.960 militarily

00:41:37.560 Russia lost

00:41:38.520 you can say

00:41:40.660 you can say

00:41:40.680 that already

00:41:41.280 Ukraine lost

00:41:42.140 too

00:41:42.440 you know

00:41:43.820 you could

00:41:44.160 argue

00:41:44.500 Ukraine's

00:41:45.640 even a

00:41:45.940 bigger loser

00:41:46.600 but Russia

00:41:48.020 definitely

00:41:48.500 lost

00:41:49.060 they lost

00:41:50.560 this war

00:41:51.040 it's already

00:41:51.500 lost

00:41:51.940 they can

00:41:52.920 only

00:41:53.240 change the

00:41:54.300 details a

00:41:54.900 little bit

00:41:55.220 but it's

00:41:55.580 lost

00:41:56.000 would Putin

00:41:59.420 go nuclear

00:42:00.000 if he's

00:42:00.380 trapped

00:42:00.660 I doubt

00:42:01.100 it

00:42:01.320 you know

00:42:01.860 I think

00:42:02.200 that Russia 0.72

00:42:02.660 is probably

00:42:03.180 a lot

00:42:03.660 like the

00:42:04.040 United States

00:42:04.820 in the sense

00:42:05.700 that I

00:42:06.820 don't even

00:42:07.160 think Putin

00:42:07.740 could order

00:42:08.200 a nuclear

00:42:08.800 attack

00:42:09.240 I don't

00:42:10.880 think he

00:42:11.200 could

00:42:11.440 now I

00:42:12.740 wouldn't

00:42:12.960 bet my

00:42:13.320 life on

00:42:13.780 it

00:42:14.080 although I

00:42:14.960 sort of

00:42:15.280 am

00:42:15.500 but I

00:42:17.940 think if

00:42:18.260 he lost

00:42:18.680 his mind

00:42:19.240 and was

00:42:19.600 going to

00:42:19.900 do something

00:42:20.340 as irrational

00:42:21.020 as send

00:42:22.080 out nukes

00:42:22.780 that there

00:42:23.820 would be

00:42:24.100 several layers

00:42:24.860 of people

00:42:25.320 saying

00:42:25.700 nope

00:42:26.420 that's where

00:42:27.640 we draw

00:42:27.940 the line

00:42:28.380 because that's

00:42:29.240 my family

00:42:29.880 right

00:42:30.920 Mike says

00:42:35.320 Scott Adams

00:42:35.940 is listening

00:42:36.480 to total

00:42:37.140 BS

00:42:37.540 Russia

00:42:38.220 already

00:42:38.760 won

00:42:39.060 well

00:42:39.940 this is

00:42:41.540 the

00:42:41.800 part

00:42:43.240 where it's

00:42:45.400 the reason

00:42:45.760 you watch

00:42:46.180 this live

00:42:47.340 stream

00:42:48.300 if I said

00:42:49.660 what you were

00:42:50.120 already thinking

00:42:50.740 there wouldn't

00:42:51.080 be much

00:42:51.420 point in

00:42:51.760 watching

00:42:52.020 but you

00:42:53.860 have my

00:42:54.240 opinion

00:42:54.540 and now

00:42:54.960 you have

00:42:55.200 your own

00:42:55.600 and we'll

00:42:56.340 get to

00:42:56.820 compare

00:42:57.240 Putin is

00:43:02.340 crazy

00:43:02.780 people are

00:43:03.340 saying

00:43:03.580 he may

00:43:05.440 be crazy

00:43:05.960 but I

00:43:06.360 think there

00:43:06.760 are other

00:43:07.480 people who

00:43:07.960 are not

00:43:08.300 as crazy

00:43:08.980 BBC

00:43:11.520 said they

00:43:12.080 have Kiev

00:43:12.600 yesterday

00:43:13.140 but can

00:43:15.000 they hold

00:43:15.420 it

00:43:16.200 it doesn't

00:43:18.100 matter if

00:43:18.480 they can't

00:43:18.780 hold it

00:43:19.500 does it

00:43:21.180 because

00:43:22.600 Russia's 0.70

00:43:23.060 economy will

00:43:23.760 be destroyed

00:43:24.400 and Ukraine's

00:43:25.940 will probably

00:43:26.380 be rebuilt

00:43:27.020 but the

00:43:29.100 Russian army

00:43:29.640 isn't going

00:43:29.980 to be able

00:43:30.200 to stay

00:43:30.500 there

00:43:30.800 the Russian

00:43:32.320 army will

00:43:32.800 be defeated

00:43:33.420 it's being

00:43:38.100 pointed out

00:43:38.620 that I said

00:43:39.180 that I

00:43:39.820 would be

00:43:40.320 I would not

00:43:41.500 be objective

00:43:42.140 on this

00:43:42.580 topic

00:43:42.960 well I'm

00:43:45.180 showing my

00:43:45.780 work

00:43:46.220 am I not

00:43:47.740 I'm giving

00:43:51.540 you reasons

00:43:52.160 for all of

00:43:52.740 my opinions

00:43:53.280 so you

00:43:55.740 could judge

00:43:56.200 for yourself

00:43:56.780 whether that's

00:43:57.420 a bias

00:43:57.940 are the

00:43:59.840 reasons

00:44:00.160 crazy

00:44:00.640 I mean

00:44:01.340 which part

00:44:02.160 which

00:44:02.480 what did

00:44:02.880 I say

00:44:03.360 and by the

00:44:04.660 way I'm

00:44:04.940 not denying

00:44:05.540 that I have

00:44:06.300 bias in this

00:44:06.960 because I

00:44:07.260 think everybody

00:44:07.680 has bias

00:44:08.200 on this

00:44:08.640 topic

00:44:08.960 but what

00:44:10.340 did I say

00:44:11.040 that isn't

00:44:12.800 reasonable

00:44:14.080 I don't

00:44:16.000 think anything

00:44:16.380 I said

00:44:16.720 isn't

00:44:16.920 reasonable

00:44:17.320 all right

00:44:26.760 just looking

00:44:27.260 at some

00:44:27.620 of your

00:44:28.020 comments

00:44:30.460 all right

00:44:35.620 you believe

00:44:38.760 you believe

00:44:38.780 the convoy

00:44:39.580 hoax

00:44:40.100 what part

00:44:41.460 is the

00:44:41.720 hoax

00:44:42.060 what's the

00:44:44.940 convoy

00:44:45.360 hoax

00:44:45.800 by the

00:44:48.260 way

00:44:48.440 anytime

00:44:49.260 anybody

00:44:49.680 says I

00:44:50.180 believe a

00:44:50.580 hoax

00:44:50.920 you always

00:44:51.820 have my

00:44:52.180 attention

00:44:52.600 well Russia 0.89

00:44:56.760 is definitely

00:44:57.300 killing more

00:44:57.940 Ukrainians

00:44:58.780 I assume

00:44:59.680 than Ukrainians 0.97

00:45:01.280 are killing

00:45:01.660 Russia

00:45:01.960 is that what

00:45:02.400 you mean

00:45:02.680 by winning

00:45:03.160 because I

00:45:04.500 would agree

00:45:04.880 with that

00:45:05.260 point

00:45:05.540 but it

00:45:07.040 doesn't look

00:45:07.500 winnable

00:45:07.880 so they're

00:45:08.900 in a

00:45:09.140 non-winnable

00:45:09.680 situation

00:45:10.200 is what

00:45:10.460 I'm saying

00:45:10.820 prediction

00:45:17.780 you'll do

00:45:18.420 a trans

00:45:19.040 and sports

00:45:19.680 shuffle

00:45:20.280 what's that

00:45:22.060 mean

00:45:22.300 meaning a

00:45:24.600 diversion

00:45:25.180 all right

00:45:27.220 well you

00:45:27.580 keep that

00:45:28.240 prediction

00:45:28.660 see how

00:45:29.020 it goes

00:45:29.300 Scott

00:45:30.640 what exactly

00:45:31.260 do you wish

00:45:32.040 would happen

00:45:32.680 oh that's

00:45:34.000 an interesting

00:45:34.420 question

00:45:34.980 well of

00:45:40.540 course you

00:45:40.960 know the

00:45:41.180 obvious

00:45:41.560 you wish

00:45:42.140 you wish

00:45:42.760 that the

00:45:43.180 citizens

00:45:43.580 and really

00:45:45.140 everybody

00:45:45.560 there

00:45:45.940 is safe

00:45:47.800 so you

00:45:49.460 know

00:45:49.700 aside from

00:45:50.980 wishing that

00:45:52.180 people's

00:45:53.480 well-being

00:45:53.960 is maximized

00:45:55.680 the obvious

00:45:56.780 thing

00:45:57.020 I think

00:45:58.720 the most

00:45:59.280 healthy thing

00:46:00.200 for the world

00:46:00.800 in the long

00:46:01.300 term

00:46:01.540 is that the

00:46:02.660 economic war

00:46:03.600 against Russia

00:46:04.280 works

00:46:04.840 because if it

00:46:06.820 works it

00:46:07.380 makes regular

00:46:08.740 kinetic war

00:46:09.680 less likely

00:46:11.260 I think

00:46:11.760 because it's

00:46:13.000 one more

00:46:13.540 way to destroy

00:46:16.100 somebody

00:46:16.460 so I think

00:46:18.600 that's an

00:46:18.960 important precedent

00:46:19.740 and given

00:46:21.220 that whatever

00:46:22.180 happens in

00:46:23.780 Ukraine is

00:46:24.400 going to be

00:46:24.860 a horrible

00:46:25.420 tragedy and

00:46:26.320 there doesn't

00:46:27.140 seem to be a

00:46:27.740 way to avoid

00:46:28.480 that at this

00:46:29.860 point

00:46:30.120 if you're

00:46:30.900 going to

00:46:31.040 have the

00:46:31.300 tragedy

00:46:31.740 you need

00:46:32.280 to get

00:46:32.540 something

00:46:33.340 something

00:46:34.640 out of it

00:46:35.280 and that

00:46:36.160 is something

00:46:36.600 the only

00:46:37.000 thing I

00:46:37.340 can think

00:46:37.720 of would

00:46:38.760 be that

00:46:39.220 we prove

00:46:39.760 the economic

00:46:40.360 war's work

00:46:41.300 that would

00:46:42.400 be used to

00:46:42.840 it

00:46:42.980 let's talk

00:46:45.360 about this

00:46:45.740 you know

00:46:46.520 so I get

00:46:47.320 a lot of

00:46:47.680 questions about

00:46:48.660 talking about

00:46:49.860 the currency

00:46:51.060 question

00:46:51.600 and petrodollars

00:46:53.580 and Russia

00:46:55.020 and China

00:46:55.500 coming up

00:46:56.100 with their

00:46:56.400 own

00:46:56.920 currencies

00:46:58.280 and reserves

00:46:59.380 and stuff

00:47:00.080 like that

00:47:00.600 but let me

00:47:01.680 tell you why

00:47:02.140 I'm not

00:47:02.480 talking about

00:47:03.080 it

00:47:03.280 I don't

00:47:05.440 think anybody

00:47:06.100 knows anything

00:47:06.920 about it

00:47:07.500 we don't

00:47:09.500 know what

00:47:09.760 they're doing

00:47:10.300 we don't

00:47:11.260 know if

00:47:11.560 it'll work

00:47:12.200 and I don't

00:47:13.260 think anybody

00:47:14.160 even understands

00:47:14.960 the topic

00:47:15.640 as I tell

00:47:20.060 you too

00:47:20.400 often

00:47:20.680 I have a

00:47:21.480 degree in

00:47:21.920 economics

00:47:22.480 and I'm

00:47:24.100 following the

00:47:24.760 story of

00:47:25.320 who's going

00:47:25.960 to do the

00:47:26.360 reserve currency

00:47:27.260 and all that

00:47:27.720 and I think

00:47:28.440 to myself

00:47:28.920 I don't know

00:47:29.920 what's going

00:47:30.240 on

00:47:30.600 maybe other

00:47:32.660 people also

00:47:33.360 don't

00:47:33.680 and they

00:47:33.880 don't admit

00:47:34.360 it

00:47:34.660 but

00:47:35.540 I would

00:47:38.040 be in the

00:47:38.500 top

00:47:38.880 let's say

00:47:40.400 of people

00:47:41.340 who have a

00:47:41.860 background

00:47:42.240 in education

00:47:43.140 and experience

00:47:44.160 to understand

00:47:45.640 the topic

00:47:46.220 I would be

00:47:46.980 in the top

00:47:47.500 2%

00:47:50.320 probably

00:47:51.440 if you took

00:47:52.520 100 people

00:47:53.320 and said

00:47:54.640 let me explain

00:47:55.260 this currency

00:47:55.900 thing

00:47:56.340 the petrodollars

00:47:57.600 and everything

00:47:57.960 I don't think

00:47:59.360 you'd get

00:47:59.820 more than

00:48:00.280 2 people

00:48:00.880 who would

00:48:01.200 understand

00:48:01.600 that

00:48:02.040 because

00:48:03.820 it's

00:48:04.900 hard to

00:48:05.560 understand

00:48:05.940 and

00:48:07.060 I could

00:48:08.200 comment on

00:48:08.820 it but

00:48:09.160 I feel like

00:48:09.760 I would

00:48:10.000 just be

00:48:10.300 flailing

00:48:10.820 it would

00:48:11.880 be like

00:48:12.200 me trying

00:48:12.560 to explain

00:48:13.200 physics

00:48:13.920 without a

00:48:15.080 physics

00:48:15.420 degree

00:48:15.820 I don't

00:48:16.820 think having

00:48:17.260 a degree

00:48:17.680 in economics

00:48:18.240 really even

00:48:18.720 helps you

00:48:19.140 because so

00:48:21.220 much of it

00:48:21.700 is psychology

00:48:22.420 you know

00:48:24.660 one assumes

00:48:26.060 that from

00:48:26.560 a technology

00:48:27.480 perspective

00:48:28.080 you could

00:48:28.540 do anything

00:48:29.100 so

00:48:30.500 you know

00:48:31.600 everything's

00:48:32.660 an option

00:48:33.040 technically

00:48:33.580 but you have

00:48:34.540 to get

00:48:34.780 people's

00:48:35.320 brains

00:48:35.940 to treat

00:48:37.640 things

00:48:38.020 certain ways

00:48:38.660 and to

00:48:39.600 put faith

00:48:40.200 in things

00:48:40.900 and to

00:48:41.560 have confidence

00:48:42.240 and it's

00:48:43.620 the psychology

00:48:44.340 that's

00:48:44.740 completely

00:48:45.220 unpredictable

00:48:45.820 if you

00:48:48.800 could predict

00:48:49.240 that

00:48:49.620 you'd

00:48:50.080 really

00:48:50.360 have

00:48:50.860 some

00:48:51.040 skills

00:48:51.440 you could

00:48:52.720 guess

00:48:53.200 but you

00:48:53.480 can't

00:48:53.700 predict

00:48:54.060 Jimmy

00:49:00.660 Dore says

00:49:01.260 there are

00:49:01.640 Nazis

00:49:01.980 in the

00:49:02.440 Ukraine

00:49:02.820 army

00:49:03.260 I believe

00:49:05.500 there probably

00:49:06.120 are some

00:49:06.680 bad people

00:49:07.260 in every

00:49:07.780 army

00:49:08.100 I'm not

00:49:10.020 defending

00:49:10.520 them

00:49:10.860 in fact

00:49:12.780 if one

00:49:14.120 of the

00:49:14.320 outcomes

00:49:14.700 is that

00:49:15.120 Russia

00:49:15.360 gets rid

00:49:15.820 of the

00:49:16.140 Nazis

00:49:16.620 and the

00:49:17.100 Ukrainian

00:49:17.540 army

00:49:19.320 that could 0.68

00:49:22.000 be good

00:49:22.360 but you

00:49:23.360 know

00:49:23.480 I don't

00:49:23.900 know how

00:49:24.160 many

00:49:24.360 there are

00:49:25.540 so that's

00:49:27.440 another story

00:49:28.060 that I stay

00:49:28.620 away from

00:49:29.020 a little bit

00:49:29.580 because I

00:49:30.000 don't believe

00:49:30.460 anything about

00:49:31.340 it

00:49:31.520 I don't

00:49:32.880 believe that

00:49:33.380 we understand

00:49:34.180 the average

00:49:35.900 opinion of

00:49:36.680 the

00:49:36.900 as of

00:49:37.580 battalion

00:49:38.100 I mean

00:49:39.400 we've seen

00:49:39.840 clips so we

00:49:40.600 know what

00:49:40.900 some leaders

00:49:41.320 have said

00:49:41.720 but it

00:49:43.080 wouldn't

00:49:43.340 surprise me

00:49:44.060 if you

00:49:44.740 talked to

00:49:45.240 the members

00:49:46.000 and you

00:49:47.800 had

00:49:48.000 privately

00:49:48.860 maybe they

00:49:50.840 just joined

00:49:51.360 because their

00:49:51.760 friends are

00:49:52.220 in it

00:49:52.500 I mean

00:49:52.820 who knows

00:49:53.880 what's going

00:49:54.320 on over

00:49:54.720 there

00:49:54.940 who knows

00:49:56.320 what

00:50:02.540 it's a huge

00:50:07.820 problem

00:50:08.160 somebody says

00:50:08.780 it could be

00:50:09.420 I'm not

00:50:10.880 I'm also

00:50:12.040 not minimizing

00:50:13.000 that

00:50:14.680 the size

00:50:16.040 of the

00:50:16.220 problem

00:50:16.460 could be

00:50:16.820 bigger than

00:50:17.260 we think

00:50:17.740 it could

00:50:18.160 be

00:50:18.400 I'm saying

00:50:19.400 that it's

00:50:19.980 just a

00:50:20.380 complete

00:50:20.800 black box

00:50:22.260 over there

00:50:22.640 we don't

00:50:22.920 know what's

00:50:23.200 happening

00:50:23.500 but you

00:50:25.640 know

00:50:25.800 nobody wants

00:50:26.700 Nazis in 0.55

00:50:27.320 charge of

00:50:27.800 anything

00:50:28.100 in Ukraine

00:50:28.900 yeah

00:50:39.000 all right

00:50:40.660 that's all

00:50:41.420 I've got

00:50:41.860 for now

00:50:43.040 and I

00:50:44.900 believe

00:50:45.300 I have

00:50:46.020 achieved my

00:50:46.540 objective

00:50:47.000 of giving

00:50:48.080 you the

00:50:48.700 best live

00:50:49.280 stream

00:50:49.600 in the

00:50:50.440 history

00:50:50.800 of the

00:50:51.140 world

00:50:51.520 even better

00:50:53.100 than yesterday

00:50:53.660 and

00:50:54.880 and

00:50:59.300 you know

00:51:00.340 what's

00:51:00.500 amazing

00:51:01.180 is it

00:51:01.700 could be

00:51:01.960 even better

00:51:02.360 tomorrow

00:51:02.860 yeah

00:51:03.860 yeah

00:51:04.520 it could

00:51:04.740 be

00:51:04.960 and

00:51:06.160 we will

00:51:07.480 see you

00:51:08.340 tomorrow

00:51:08.780 best show

00:51:09.960 ever

00:51:10.220 I'm sure

00:51:10.980 it was

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 16, 2022

Episode 1684 Scott Adams： Russia Already Lost the War. I'll Explain

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