Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1689 Scott Adams： How Trump Would Solve the Ukraine Situation, A Talent Stack Lesson

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to an experience that will last you a lifetime.

00:00:11.420 And it's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and it's the best thing that's ever been done anywhere.

00:00:15.260 I think everyone agrees. You can hear them talking about it now.

00:00:19.240 Hear them? Yeah, I think you do.

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00:00:28.140 all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice, a canteen jug or a flask,

00:00:33.460 a vessel of any kind, fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:40.480 Join me now for the unparalleled pleasure. It's the dopamine hit of the day.

00:00:47.040 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now. Go!

00:00:58.140 Well, I'll tell you, my system for checking the sound without the trolls interfering is working perfectly.

00:01:10.260 And I know Paul always says, don't thank me. It hurts the flow.

00:01:15.080 But thank you, Paul, because you fixed my flow.

00:01:17.120 Here's a story.

00:01:21.460 Rasmussen had a poll, and they said that, asked people if Biden's policies increased inflation.

00:01:30.160 And 64% of respondents, likely voters they are, said yes, that Biden's policies increased inflation.

00:01:37.760 Can you guess what percentage of the public, what percentage of the public answered that Biden's policies did not increase inflation?

00:01:49.740 Can you, wow, you are good guessers.

00:01:54.920 Almost every person got this one right.

00:01:58.740 And whoever guessed 24%, let me call you, hold on for a second.

00:02:03.240 So I have to call out Shadu for guessing 24%.

00:02:09.480 Now, you knew that the answer was 25%, but you were smart enough to know I was probably rounding.

00:02:17.640 And if you got it right, it would look impressive, because it was a pretty clever guess.

00:02:23.360 But if you got it wrong, everybody would forget immediately.

00:02:26.140 So in terms of how to play this in the comment game, your comment game is very strong, Shadu.

00:02:35.620 The answer is, unfortunately, exactly 25%.

00:02:38.680 But the 24% guess was excellent strategy.

00:02:43.760 Good game theory there.

00:02:44.800 And 87% of people said inflation, in the Rasmussen poll, said inflation will be important in congressional elections.

00:02:56.960 Do you know what it means when 87% say inflation will be important, and also that Biden has increased inflation?

00:03:04.200 If you put those together, what does it mean?

00:03:08.060 What will it mean?

00:03:09.980 Somebody says the red wave.

00:03:12.220 Republicans will sweep into office.

00:03:13.960 Except, except, except, there's one other phenomenon, which we'll fight against that.

00:03:25.680 And it goes like this.

00:03:28.100 People like their own representatives.

00:03:30.700 People like their incumbents.

00:03:32.960 So I think all the, you know, as usual, all the incumbents will get reelected.

00:03:36.780 So it has more to do with how many empty, you know, how many vacant seats there are.

00:03:40.900 My understanding is there will be far more vacant Democrat seats.

00:03:46.400 Is that still the case?

00:03:47.960 The prediction is still for far more vacant Democrat seats, right?

00:03:51.720 I think that was the latest I read, but that could change at any time.

00:03:56.620 Now, the other factor, the other factor is, shit happens.

00:04:04.240 If there's one thing that you can guarantee, is that between now and the midterm elections, there'll be some shit.

00:04:12.820 And, you know, it could be anything from a recording of Biden saying he likes to grab women by the who knows what.

00:04:22.380 It could be something in Ukraine.

00:04:24.420 It could be anything.

00:04:26.760 I mean, there's so many things that could happen between now and Election Day that I feel as if making a congressional prediction is just kind of dicey.

00:04:38.480 But I'm going to do it anyway.

00:04:39.680 So in this case, I agree with the majority.

00:04:44.380 So I agree with the pundits that I think the Republicans will take control of both houses.

00:04:50.720 And I believe in 2024, they'll take control of the presidency.

00:04:56.160 Most likely.

00:04:57.120 I would say I'm a little more confident of the congressional part, just because it's closer.

00:05:04.200 And I'm less confident of the presidency part, because Trump is such a wild card.

00:05:11.320 You throw Trump into any situation, you're like, I don't know.

00:05:16.120 Anything could happen.

00:05:17.080 But if he ends up being the candidate, if he wins in the primaries, then I would say, because it's Trump, the other side could unleash any kind of attack, and it might work.

00:05:33.120 So, for example, you know, the Russia collusion thing kind of almost worked, right?

00:05:39.800 The, you know, the Hunter's laptop story, the press made that go away just at the right time.

00:05:47.760 So we do know that the press can create a narrative that the public will believe.

00:05:54.120 So it doesn't even, it wouldn't even matter if Trump did something, you know, ultra provocative.

00:05:59.520 I mean, everything he does.

00:06:00.940 But if he did something like a little extra, extra provocative, if that's even possible, he doesn't even need to do that.

00:06:07.340 Because the press will concoct something, a narrative, that will, you know, fit the Democrat plan, and the public will believe it.

00:06:19.080 So it's pretty hard to predict how much narrative they could create about what between now and 2024.

00:06:30.800 Somebody's saying Trump as president with DeSantis as vice president.

00:06:34.920 Oh, God, that would be a package, wouldn't it?

00:06:38.780 You know, I hadn't actually, I had never considered that as, like, a realistic possibility until literally just this moment.

00:06:48.560 All right, let's think that through.

00:06:51.500 Have you heard anybody speculate about that package?

00:06:54.300 I think I haven't really considered it, because I see both of them as the presidential candidate.

00:07:00.540 Which is kind of ideal.

00:07:05.080 What's the one thing you're worried about with Trump?

00:07:09.260 His age, right?

00:07:12.200 So where Biden tried to solve his age problem with Kamala Harris, that was literally the worst decision anybody ever made.

00:07:22.020 Maybe it helped him get elected, I don't know.

00:07:23.920 Maybe she checked enough boxes that the demographics of it worked out.

00:07:29.440 But you really don't look at Biden and say to yourself, ooh, we're in good shape if the number one has to check out early.

00:07:38.060 But imagine Trump.

00:07:40.860 Imagine Trump saying something that only Trump can say.

00:07:43.480 Hey, I'm in perfect shape at the moment, but I totally understand that at a certain age, you want a backup plan.

00:07:53.720 I'm going to give you the best backup plan anybody ever gave anybody.

00:07:59.560 And he could actually make that sell.

00:08:01.800 Because DeSantis would be the best backup plan.

00:08:05.720 Because he also might be the best president.

00:08:08.940 Yeah, honestly, we don't know.

00:08:10.420 I mean, nobody's smart enough to know that another run of Trump would necessarily be better or worse than a first run of DeSantis.

00:08:21.040 There's no way to know that.

00:08:23.000 But Trump could definitely sell that the number two position is so solid that you don't have to worry about it.

00:08:33.080 Now, if Trump even wanted to go further, and I don't know that this would be compatible with his personality, but it would be a great strategy.

00:08:44.300 He could say, for example, I'll tell you what.

00:08:46.580 I'll guarantee that I'll have a public cognitive test.

00:08:52.040 In other words, it'll be made public after the fact.

00:08:55.600 Once every six months.

00:08:58.320 Or once a year.

00:08:59.800 Or on request by the White House physician.

00:09:04.940 Let's say on request.

00:09:06.180 Maybe that's smarter.

00:09:07.440 As long as people trust the White House physician.

00:09:09.400 Or how about this?

00:09:12.960 How about he hires a Democrat as the White House physician?

00:09:20.660 Why not?

00:09:22.640 Right?

00:09:23.760 Why not?

00:09:26.080 Just imagine it.

00:09:27.220 I mean, we'll just work through it.

00:09:28.380 This doesn't seem likely to me, so I'm not going to predict it or anything like that.

00:09:32.440 But just imagine it.

00:09:34.040 Imagine Trump saying, here's my proposition.

00:09:36.740 DeSantis says my number two.

00:09:38.160 White House physician, I'm going to pick a Democrat.

00:09:43.280 And the Democrat can test me any time they want.

00:09:47.180 Because I acknowledge that at a certain age, this is just a good system.

00:09:53.540 So what Trump could sell is a better system.

00:09:57.620 And it wouldn't even be personal.

00:09:59.500 So he doesn't even have to make it about himself.

00:10:02.140 He could say, you know, wouldn't you be happier if this system were in place right now?

00:10:05.900 Wouldn't you like Biden to have a Republican doctor who is doing a cognitive test whenever that Republican doctor deems it necessary and then makes it public?

00:10:17.760 And if it's a negative result, there might be, you know, some double testing requirement.

00:10:24.480 But if the tests hold up, then the vice president is sort of somewhat automatically, you know, assumed to step up.

00:10:35.180 Why not?

00:10:36.840 Now, again, everything has to be a personality fit.

00:10:42.340 And I'm not sure that that would fit Trump's personality, because I don't think he'd like to even suggest any weakness in his future.

00:10:52.800 So I don't know that that would even be the best strategy.

00:10:55.500 But it's a strategy.

00:10:57.220 And it would be very disarming, wouldn't it?

00:11:00.180 Because after people went through the Biden experience, even the Democrats are saying, I'm a little worried that age is having an impact.

00:11:08.780 Am I right?

00:11:10.280 I think that most, not most, but let's say Democrats who are paying attention, are at least concerned about their own candidate's age.

00:11:21.260 It would be really clever for Trump to just suggest a system that I think could be an enduring system over a certain age, make sure that the White House doctor is the other party.

00:11:40.100 Null Hypothesis asks, can you talk to Greg Goffeld about sending me a signed photo of himself?

00:11:49.920 Greg?

00:11:51.260 We've got a request here from Null Hypothesis, who gives me no contact information whatsoever.

00:11:58.620 But I know, Greg, you're good at guessing.

00:12:02.620 So he does have an address, and he does have a real name.

00:12:06.540 We don't know what it is, but I think it's reasonable for you to take a shot at it.

00:12:12.540 So, you know, pick an address, pick a name.

00:12:17.280 You might get lucky.

00:12:18.100 There's a new technology, I saw in a Mashable tweet, in which you get a little earbud that's a near-instant universal translator.

00:12:32.820 What?

00:12:33.100 Now, of course, this sort of thing has been worked on for a long time, but apparently the, how, yeah, like a babble fish.

00:12:40.140 But apparently the claimed technology, so I'll just say claimed, is that it can translate 40 different languages with a half-second delay.

00:12:54.040 Do you believe that?

00:12:57.300 Do you think the technology is there yet?

00:13:00.020 40 different languages with a whole bunch of different accents within each, and a half-second delay so that you can have a real-time conversation with somebody in a language that you don't speak.

00:13:13.020 I feel like it's inevitable it will exist.

00:13:21.380 Yeah, it's inevitable it will exist.

00:13:24.060 I don't know if we're there yet.

00:13:25.780 I mean, there might be a little hyperbole here.

00:13:28.120 I don't know.

00:13:28.960 And rooms are noisy, and you've got lots of, you know, ambient noise problems, et cetera.

00:13:34.340 But we're getting there.

00:13:39.020 Speaking of that, here's a little lesson for success.

00:13:45.280 This will be the fastest little lesson for success.

00:13:48.180 It's an example of a talent stack.

00:13:51.460 And it's the simplest example I can think of.

00:13:54.240 And I'm going to give you the example to show how two talents, which are fairly approachable, you know, talents that an ordinary person can learn,

00:14:04.340 when you add it to another talent, if you pick the right two talents, they make you unique.

00:14:11.860 And that makes your market value higher, and then you can get jobs.

00:14:15.680 And there's a job that I wasn't terribly aware of until recently, a medical translator.

00:14:23.640 So somebody who's sort of on call for a hospital, let's say, or a doctor, to come in on contract.

00:14:29.860 The insurance probably pays for it.

00:14:31.360 And to be the translator in the room, as let's say somebody who only speaks Spanish or only speaks Chinese, is getting service.

00:14:41.000 Now, I guess, I haven't looked into it.

00:14:44.740 Maybe one of you can tell me right now while we're on.

00:14:47.320 Somebody will know the answer to this.

00:14:48.800 A translator in that medical context, or a sign language, somebody says, yeah, a translator in that context probably gets paid pretty well, don't they?

00:15:03.200 Wouldn't you say?

00:15:04.420 They probably get paid pretty well.

00:15:05.600 So wouldn't you imagine combining the following skills?

00:15:12.420 Let's say you already learned Spanish on top of your normal language, English, or vice versa, so you can be a translator.

00:15:20.820 But on top of that, you've also made a study of the medical words most commonly used wherever you're going to be translating.

00:15:28.040 So that you can translate, like, obscure medical terms, because even a regular translator couldn't do that, because they have never heard those terms.

00:15:37.940 So, and then let's say you combine that with a sign language, so you can work with a deaf as well.

00:15:45.120 How hard would it be to learn, let's say you would already learn Spanish a little bit.

00:15:49.380 If you already had Spanish and English, how hard would it be to add medical terminology and sign language?

00:16:01.600 Imagine going in for the job as a medical translator, and you bring that package.

00:16:08.080 It's pretty, yeah, I mean, it might take you a few years to get up to speed.

00:16:14.720 Now, this assumes that you're already pretty good at Spanish and English.

00:16:17.640 But anyway, the only reason I mention this is not to suggest that any of you enter this field.

00:16:24.220 It's sort of a really clean example of how to make an exceptional life out of ordinary talents.

00:16:31.660 You just have to pick the ordinaries that work together well to make you unique.

00:16:36.320 Everybody get that?

00:16:37.720 If you want to explain to someone else how to succeed,

00:16:42.240 and you want to give them the most base case, simple thing,

00:16:46.820 use that example.

00:16:49.140 Because the hardest part about explaining a talent stack

00:16:51.360 is that when you talk about it generically,

00:16:54.640 people can't quite connect to it.

00:16:56.640 But that example is so clean,

00:16:59.080 if you remember it, it'll really help you explain it to other people.

00:17:02.560 So then you can become the people who make other people successful.

00:17:06.220 How many of you have made other people successful

00:17:10.140 by telling them something you learned from me?

00:17:14.760 Has that happened?

00:17:16.200 I'm actually curious about that.

00:17:20.920 So I'm just looking at the comments.

00:17:23.120 A lot of people are saying yes.

00:17:25.560 A lot of people are saying yes.

00:17:27.260 Holy shit.

00:17:27.820 So apparently this content travels.

00:17:35.400 That's good news.

00:17:36.820 I didn't know that, actually.

00:17:38.260 You know, I never really thought of it that much.

00:17:41.580 But it seems that people can explain the content,

00:17:46.720 some aspects of the content,

00:17:48.740 well enough that it travels.

00:17:51.960 I'll be damned.

00:17:52.740 I teach systems over goals all the time.

00:17:57.400 Wow.

00:18:01.320 How weird is it

00:18:02.660 that it seems highly likely at this point

00:18:07.020 that the thing I'll be remembered for is not Dilbert?

00:18:12.560 Do you know how weird that is?

00:18:15.140 That if you fast forward to, I don't know,

00:18:17.920 20 years from now, whatever,

00:18:19.580 some people will still remember Dilbert,

00:18:21.360 but I'll be far more famous for the talent stack stuff

00:18:24.360 and the systems over goals.

00:18:27.060 Not even close.

00:18:28.580 Because the systems over goals

00:18:30.080 and the talent stack stuff

00:18:31.180 are like civilization transformable concepts.

00:18:37.080 I mean, they always existed,

00:18:39.700 but just articulating them

00:18:41.120 allows people to pick them up better.

00:18:43.700 So, I mean, it's the articulating that I did, I guess.

00:18:48.580 Wow.

00:18:49.020 It's kind of blowing me away looking at the comments.

00:18:52.220 Now, on YouTube,

00:18:53.140 you can't see the subscribers over at Locals,

00:18:56.660 but I'm seeing just a continuous stream of people

00:19:00.040 who have taught other people those concepts with success,

00:19:04.520 meaning that the other people actually visibly succeeded.

00:19:09.220 Wow.

00:19:09.820 Have I told you before how life suspiciously mirrors movies?

00:19:18.560 And I'm not sure if it's because we think in movie terms,

00:19:21.800 so we just apply that filter to things,

00:19:23.900 or if there's something fundamental,

00:19:26.760 such as we're living in a simulation

00:19:29.300 in which our plots are being given to us

00:19:32.180 and then somebody's observing how we operate.

00:19:34.820 And it just seems to me that the simulation,

00:19:43.300 if we live in a simulation,

00:19:44.840 is about a month away from presenting the following storyline.

00:19:49.760 Now, I'm not going to predict this.

00:19:52.400 I'm just saying that if we live in a simulated reality

00:19:55.180 that mirrors what movies do,

00:19:58.620 we're about 30 days away from the following thing happening,

00:20:02.360 which is learning that the pandemic started

00:20:06.460 at a Ukrainian laboratory funded by Hunter Biden,

00:20:10.080 and the formula for the antidote

00:20:12.100 is in one of his many still-lost laptops.

00:20:15.800 You can almost see the movie forming in your head, can't you?

00:20:20.380 And the search is...

00:20:22.440 And there's going to be a key part of the movie

00:20:24.120 where 007 or somebody has called in,

00:20:27.320 and it's explained to him,

00:20:28.560 all right, you know, this happened,

00:20:30.120 and this Hunter Biden was funding these labs.

00:20:33.940 By the way, if you're joining late,

00:20:35.420 none of this is real.

00:20:36.340 I'm just talking about a fictional plot.

00:20:39.220 Hunter Biden funded these Ukrainian bio-labs,

00:20:43.640 and then at some point another character will say,

00:20:47.280 all right, and the antidote is on that lost laptop,

00:20:50.860 and the person explaining it will say,

00:20:53.980 laptops.

00:20:56.660 And then 007 will say,

00:20:58.900 all right, two laptops.

00:21:00.920 You know, do we know where both of the laptops might be?

00:21:04.000 And then the boss says,

00:21:05.560 not two.

00:21:09.080 He had a real problem losing laptops.

00:21:12.160 We believe there are seven.

00:21:13.720 And then the whole plot is to try to find

00:21:17.540 all seven of the missing laptops.

00:21:19.200 Sort of like Thanos' three rings or gemstones

00:21:26.860 or whatever it was.

00:21:29.600 And they'd have to, like,

00:21:31.680 figure out Hunter Biden's, like,

00:21:35.180 depraved activities

00:21:37.280 and go to all the worst places in the world

00:21:39.520 to retrieve the laptops.

00:21:42.100 So they'd have to be going into, like,

00:21:46.260 the darkest brothels

00:21:47.700 in the most dangerous parts of the world.

00:21:55.380 Are you telling me,

00:21:56.860 are you telling me this wouldn't be

00:21:58.320 a great frickin' movie?

00:22:01.140 Imagine you learning about what Hunter did,

00:22:04.920 but only by going into the places

00:22:06.640 where his laptops can be found.

00:22:08.400 So you have to enter each of these environments

00:22:11.360 to find out how wild it was.

00:22:13.840 And Hunter Biden's never there.

00:22:16.160 It's like, so the movie never shows him.

00:22:18.340 It just shows the aftermath

00:22:19.560 or the trouble he caused

00:22:22.420 or the village he burned down or something.

00:22:25.720 Yeah, it's a little like the Hangover movie, right?

00:22:28.180 All good movies borrow from other movies.

00:22:30.120 Well, the pandemic's no laughing matter

00:22:33.720 except when it is.

00:22:35.840 So had you been curious

00:22:37.160 about whether it was true or not

00:22:38.700 that four Russian generals had been...

00:22:41.560 Four, right?

00:22:43.080 Russian generals had been killed by the Ukrainians,

00:22:45.780 which would be, like,

00:22:47.100 a surprisingly large number.

00:22:49.440 Well, General Petraeus thinks it's true.

00:22:51.840 You know, he thinks that at least three of them

00:22:53.240 are solidly confirmed.

00:22:55.360 And here's how he explained it,

00:22:57.460 if you didn't see this on CNN.

00:22:58.620 And by the way, CNN's doing a real good job,

00:23:02.660 you know, since I criticize them often.

00:23:06.460 I'll give them credit where credit is due.

00:23:10.360 And I think they're doing a real good job

00:23:12.180 at having generals on,

00:23:13.640 explaining what's happening there.

00:23:16.400 You know, standing next to the map

00:23:18.140 and pointing to stuff.

00:23:19.180 It's actually really good.

00:23:20.940 I'm kind of impressed.

00:23:22.560 And Petraeus, especially, is doing a good job.

00:23:25.060 And so he says, here's what's going on,

00:23:26.780 that these long convoys,

00:23:29.760 their command and control breaks down

00:23:32.240 because the Ukrainians can jam

00:23:35.160 or turn off all their communications.

00:23:37.780 So it turns out the Ukrainians are dominating

00:23:40.060 the electronic warfare.

00:23:42.340 Didn't see that coming, did you?

00:23:46.560 I did.

00:23:48.220 I mean, indirectly, I did.

00:23:49.940 Because my prediction was that Russia

00:23:51.660 would not have an easy time

00:23:53.880 because the Ukrainians would have access

00:23:56.240 to basically the best NATO or American technology.

00:24:01.460 So somehow, they're jamming enough.

00:24:04.660 Part of it is that Russians don't have good

00:24:07.340 protected communications.

00:24:09.600 Somehow, that got taken out.

00:24:12.180 And they're stealing cell phones from the locals

00:24:14.160 just to communicate with, back home

00:24:16.280 and with their own units, I guess,

00:24:17.980 which, again, makes them targets.

00:24:20.300 So I guess at some point,

00:24:22.300 because the Russians don't have good,

00:24:25.580 they also don't have initiative,

00:24:28.440 that when the convoy stops,

00:24:31.520 the problem of whatever stopped it

00:24:34.020 doesn't get fixed

00:24:35.020 until the general who's somewhere back in the convoy

00:24:38.060 goes up to the front

00:24:39.900 to figure out what's the trouble

00:24:41.480 and makes some decisions.

00:24:43.420 And he can't do it by phone

00:24:44.720 because they've cut off his communications.

00:24:47.240 So the general, personally,

00:24:49.360 has to move from wherever

00:24:50.600 is a more protected position

00:24:52.180 to the front of the convoy.

00:24:54.640 And do you know what's waiting for him

00:24:55.880 at the front of the convoy?

00:24:58.100 Sniper.

00:24:59.620 So all they have to do

00:25:01.500 is stop the convoy

00:25:03.100 and turn off communications.

00:25:06.320 So if you stop the convoy

00:25:07.780 and turn off communications

00:25:08.920 within the convoy itself,

00:25:11.180 the general is going to have to reveal himself

00:25:13.400 because they don't have good,

00:25:15.000 they don't have good lower management

00:25:17.340 within the ranks.

00:25:18.940 If they had good lower management,

00:25:20.740 you'd have some officers up front

00:25:22.480 making local decisions

00:25:23.700 and solving the problems

00:25:24.980 much in the way

00:25:26.500 maybe the general would have.

00:25:28.520 But they won't move without the general

00:25:30.440 in the Russian army,

00:25:32.380 according to Petraeus.

00:25:34.040 Is that true?

00:25:35.020 I don't know.

00:25:35.640 Seems like he'd know.

00:25:37.100 I mean, it seems like he'd know.

00:25:38.980 But I don't trust anything these days.

00:25:41.800 And do you believe that the Ukrainians

00:25:44.060 have these talented snipers?

00:25:46.600 Maybe.

00:25:46.960 I mean, I suppose they've been

00:25:48.880 training for a long time.

00:25:51.700 So I can't confirm anything

00:25:53.460 that Petraeus says about anything.

00:25:55.680 But it would be interesting

00:25:57.280 to know that that was a strategy.

00:25:59.980 And it further suggests

00:26:01.820 that the Ukrainians

00:26:03.120 are just operating

00:26:03.920 on a higher strategic level.

00:26:06.960 Does that seem to be consistently true?

00:26:10.860 There are anti-sniper snipers.

00:26:15.200 Somebody says not correct,

00:26:16.960 but I don't know what they're talking about.

00:26:21.120 Yeah, it's hard to get

00:26:22.280 a lot of trained snipers, isn't it?

00:26:24.940 I didn't know you could create

00:26:26.300 too many snipers.

00:26:27.320 But then again,

00:26:29.120 how many do you need?

00:26:30.900 Right?

00:26:31.480 If you had six good snipers,

00:26:33.560 you'd probably get four generals by now,

00:26:35.720 if that technique I described

00:26:37.720 actually produces results.

00:26:40.760 You'd think the generals would learn

00:26:42.420 to wear the outfit of a private

00:26:45.280 when they're visiting

00:26:47.160 the front of the lines.

00:26:49.140 Do you think the generals

00:26:50.040 actually dress as a general

00:26:51.600 when they get out of their truck?

00:26:53.060 I'll bet they do.

00:26:56.660 Unless there's some kind

00:26:57.580 of facial recognition thing going on.

00:26:59.520 Apparently, Clearview

00:27:00.620 is operating over there,

00:27:02.100 at least for the Ukrainian side.

00:27:05.300 So, by the way,

00:27:06.880 that's an interesting story

00:27:08.280 I haven't seen anywhere.

00:27:10.280 Clearview,

00:27:11.220 the controversial

00:27:11.980 facial recognition company,

00:27:14.800 is apparently going big,

00:27:17.020 or at least they're participating

00:27:19.000 in some substantial way in Ukraine.

00:27:20.700 And I think it's because

00:27:22.220 the Ukrainians are going to need

00:27:23.600 to have facial recognition

00:27:24.600 to figure out who's Russian,

00:27:25.960 who's Ukrainian at some point.

00:27:28.420 So, you know,

00:27:31.900 wars change things,

00:27:34.020 and war may have made

00:27:35.240 a big difference

00:27:35.760 to their business model.

00:27:38.060 All right.

00:27:40.900 I saw a Jack Posobiec tweet

00:27:43.420 about a poll of Canadians,

00:27:46.760 and I talked to vaccinated

00:27:48.100 and unvaccinated people,

00:27:49.480 and asked them a question

00:27:50.560 that had nothing to do

00:27:51.400 with either of those things.

00:27:53.020 It had to do with

00:27:54.200 Russian sanctions.

00:27:56.700 And they were trying

00:27:57.500 to find out

00:27:58.040 if vaccinated people

00:27:59.360 had a different opinion

00:28:00.840 about Russia

00:28:01.600 and sanctions

00:28:02.880 than unvaccinated.

00:28:05.260 Now, I don't know why,

00:28:07.140 but the conclusion is

00:28:08.240 that the people

00:28:09.060 who are unvaccinated

00:28:11.080 don't want to go hard

00:28:14.380 on Russia

00:28:14.880 or probably just don't even

00:28:16.480 want to be involved

00:28:17.180 in any way,

00:28:17.940 including sanctions.

00:28:19.480 Whereas the people

00:28:20.840 who are vaccinated

00:28:21.840 are strong

00:28:25.660 on Russian sanctions.

00:28:27.760 They really want

00:28:28.320 those Russian sanctions,

00:28:29.740 economic sanctions.

00:28:31.880 Now,

00:28:33.080 do you think

00:28:33.540 this correlation

00:28:35.380 is real,

00:28:36.360 first of all?

00:28:38.160 Do you think

00:28:38.520 that...

00:28:39.160 Because the correlation

00:28:39.920 was super strong.

00:28:41.000 I don't have the exact numbers,

00:28:42.480 but it was, like,

00:28:42.840 really strong.

00:28:43.500 It was, like,

00:28:44.220 80 to, you know,

00:28:45.600 20.

00:28:46.420 I mean,

00:28:46.720 a real big difference.

00:28:49.480 So there are two ways to,

00:28:51.640 at least two ways,

00:28:52.680 to interpret it.

00:28:53.680 I don't know which one's true.

00:28:55.100 So one way would be

00:28:56.280 that the people

00:28:58.900 who don't want vaccinations

00:29:00.200 don't trust the government

00:29:02.180 to do anything.

00:29:04.080 So it wouldn't matter

00:29:05.060 what two topics

00:29:05.880 you were talking about.

00:29:07.400 You'd say,

00:29:08.100 would you like the government to...

00:29:09.880 No, no, stop.

00:29:11.960 I do not want the government

00:29:13.200 to do anything.

00:29:15.500 I don't want the government

00:29:16.620 to force me

00:29:17.500 to get a vaccination.

00:29:18.840 I don't trust the government

00:29:20.240 when they say they're safe.

00:29:21.720 I don't want the government

00:29:22.860 to attack another country

00:29:24.760 because I don't think

00:29:25.680 that they'll do a good job

00:29:26.620 of that,

00:29:26.960 and there's probably

00:29:27.440 no reason whatsoever.

00:29:28.660 I don't want them

00:29:29.340 to sanction Russia

00:29:30.940 because I don't want them

00:29:34.040 to do anything.

00:29:35.480 Everything they do

00:29:36.180 is wrong.

00:29:37.080 Just stop doing everything.

00:29:38.140 So is that

00:29:41.460 an irrational world view?

00:29:45.100 It's not my world view,

00:29:47.200 so I don't share

00:29:48.400 that world view,

00:29:49.800 but I definitely respect it.

00:29:53.440 Do you have opinions

00:29:54.740 like that where

00:29:55.660 clearly you disagree

00:29:57.700 with somebody's opinion

00:29:58.720 on any topic,

00:30:00.020 but when you hear

00:30:00.860 that other opinion,

00:30:01.740 you say,

00:30:02.020 you know,

00:30:02.960 that's not my opinion,

00:30:04.860 but I definitely respect it.

00:30:06.960 There must be

00:30:08.440 a lot of people

00:30:09.080 who are in favor

00:30:10.320 of abortion,

00:30:11.740 but when they hear

00:30:12.700 the other topic,

00:30:13.720 you know,

00:30:13.900 the other side

00:30:14.560 about, you know,

00:30:15.740 sanctity of life

00:30:16.460 and stuff,

00:30:17.240 don't you think

00:30:17.640 there are a lot of people

00:30:18.300 who say,

00:30:18.660 you know,

00:30:19.780 personally,

00:30:20.680 I might be in favor

00:30:21.740 of abortion,

00:30:22.780 but I've got to admit,

00:30:25.080 I do respect

00:30:25.780 the other opinion.

00:30:27.720 That's kind of,

00:30:28.920 it's unusual,

00:30:29.860 isn't it?

00:30:30.680 Usually we don't respect

00:30:32.200 either the people

00:30:33.940 who have the opinion

00:30:34.740 or the opinion itself,

00:30:36.660 but there are a few cases

00:30:37.860 where you can respect

00:30:39.060 the other opinion,

00:30:40.300 and this is one of them.

00:30:41.600 The people who say,

00:30:42.620 just don't give

00:30:43.360 the government any power,

00:30:45.120 they'll just abuse it

00:30:46.100 and do everything wrong,

00:30:47.420 they're at least

00:30:48.260 partly right.

00:30:50.220 At the very least,

00:30:52.140 they're very right-ish.

00:30:54.400 You know,

00:30:54.540 they're more right

00:30:55.580 than wrong.

00:30:56.560 It's just,

00:30:57.660 are there exceptions

00:30:58.520 that are worth

00:30:59.220 looking into?

00:30:59.980 And I say yes.

00:31:00.940 But as a world view,

00:31:02.760 as a starting point,

00:31:04.600 if your starting point

00:31:06.220 is don't give them

00:31:06.920 any power,

00:31:08.300 but somebody can make

00:31:09.240 a convincing enough argument,

00:31:10.800 let's say,

00:31:11.340 national defense,

00:31:12.740 in which you should anyway,

00:31:14.900 then that's kind of

00:31:15.640 a healthy situation.

00:31:17.820 Right?

00:31:18.260 You want people

00:31:19.160 who are totally resistant

00:31:20.560 to the government

00:31:21.280 getting any power.

00:31:22.820 They are very

00:31:23.680 productive citizens.

00:31:25.760 Let me put it this way.

00:31:27.080 Would you want

00:31:27.760 to live in a world

00:31:28.540 in which at least

00:31:30.080 20% of the public

00:31:31.360 wasn't automatically

00:31:33.420 opposed to the government

00:31:34.440 getting any power

00:31:35.280 whatsoever?

00:31:36.960 I kind of like

00:31:38.000 living in that world.

00:31:39.960 You know,

00:31:40.260 I don't want to use

00:31:41.280 the word heroes

00:31:42.660 too cavalierly,

00:31:45.240 but the people

00:31:46.340 who say

00:31:46.880 the government

00:31:47.800 is bad all the time

00:31:49.060 and you've got to watch

00:31:49.920 every single thing

00:31:50.760 they do,

00:31:51.480 don't trust anything,

00:31:52.640 don't give them a dime,

00:31:54.080 don't let them

00:31:54.660 make any decisions,

00:31:56.380 those people

00:31:57.140 are very,

00:31:57.940 very productive citizens.

00:32:01.140 Sorry, Josh,

00:32:02.120 too many verys.

00:32:07.320 So,

00:32:08.280 anyway,

00:32:08.880 it's the same thing

00:32:09.680 I say about

00:32:10.220 the conservative

00:32:11.800 worldview in general.

00:32:13.920 Somebody asked me

00:32:14.720 about it recently

00:32:15.280 because I prefer

00:32:17.080 spending time

00:32:19.540 with people

00:32:20.440 who have a certain

00:32:21.160 worldview

00:32:21.760 weirdly even

00:32:23.920 when I disagree

00:32:24.580 with it sometimes.

00:32:26.380 Weirdly.

00:32:26.780 right?

00:32:28.440 So,

00:32:29.400 you know,

00:32:29.740 most of you know

00:32:30.940 that on social stuff

00:32:32.820 I'm way left

00:32:34.380 to Bernie,

00:32:35.320 but if you ask me

00:32:37.520 do you all have

00:32:38.400 like a good

00:32:39.200 worldview

00:32:39.640 that works,

00:32:41.140 that creates,

00:32:41.980 you know,

00:32:42.120 good children

00:32:42.680 and makes society

00:32:43.740 work,

00:32:44.260 of course you do.

00:32:45.840 You've got a great,

00:32:46.900 you've got a great

00:32:47.700 thing going.

00:32:48.240 If I could do it

00:32:50.700 I would be religious

00:32:52.540 because I observe

00:32:54.860 it's a really good

00:32:55.540 system.

00:32:56.340 I just,

00:32:56.960 for whatever reason,

00:32:57.680 my brain isn't wired

00:32:58.600 to be a believer.

00:33:00.380 But if it were,

00:33:03.600 I think I'd be happier

00:33:04.680 because the people

00:33:06.520 who are wired that way

00:33:07.680 seem to be plenty happy,

00:33:09.000 I mean,

00:33:09.280 relative to other people.

00:33:10.480 I think the science

00:33:11.200 says it

00:33:11.620 and I think observation

00:33:12.700 bears that as well.

00:33:14.000 So what did that

00:33:17.580 have to do with

00:33:18.160 Biden and Venezuela?

00:33:19.420 Well,

00:33:19.720 nothing,

00:33:20.180 but is it weird

00:33:21.680 to you that

00:33:22.520 the Biden administration

00:33:24.340 is looking to buy

00:33:25.560 oil from Venezuela

00:33:26.760 who is,

00:33:28.460 as you know,

00:33:29.240 not exactly

00:33:29.960 the most trustworthy

00:33:30.860 country

00:33:33.460 and not exactly

00:33:34.560 our ally?

00:33:36.660 And worse yet,

00:33:38.000 if you didn't know this,

00:33:39.140 Venezuelan crude oil

00:33:41.120 is,

00:33:42.140 do you say,

00:33:43.080 heavy or dirty?

00:33:44.120 What's the right word?

00:33:45.520 But it's worse

00:33:47.340 for the environment

00:33:48.160 than is

00:33:50.560 most other oil

00:33:51.960 that we're using.

00:33:53.840 It's heavy.

00:33:54.740 So somebody's saying

00:33:55.400 heavy is the right word.

00:33:57.020 High in sulfur,

00:33:58.020 I'm being told.

00:33:59.280 So the point is

00:34:00.260 that Biden could

00:34:01.740 allow

00:34:02.860 or at least encourage

00:34:04.100 more domestic

00:34:05.740 oil production

00:34:06.580 and we would create

00:34:08.560 fairly,

00:34:10.980 let's say,

00:34:12.220 more benign,

00:34:13.540 and nothing's benign,

00:34:14.480 let's say,

00:34:15.060 safer,

00:34:16.400 we would produce

00:34:17.260 safer energy

00:34:18.540 than Venezuela

00:34:20.300 and we would

00:34:21.780 make the money

00:34:22.440 and then we'd have

00:34:23.880 this robust industry.

00:34:25.700 But rather than

00:34:26.820 making the United States

00:34:28.100 more wealthy

00:34:29.100 and the environment

00:34:30.880 safer,

00:34:32.700 two things that the

00:34:33.560 president has

00:34:34.240 vowed to do,

00:34:36.100 he's decided to make

00:34:37.320 Venezuela richer

00:34:38.760 and to make

00:34:41.480 the environment

00:34:42.720 worse.

00:34:44.980 And none of those

00:34:46.460 things are an

00:34:47.140 interpretation.

00:34:48.560 Am I right?

00:34:49.900 I mean,

00:34:50.320 I give opinions here,

00:34:52.320 but that's not an opinion.

00:34:54.540 He's literally saying

00:34:55.600 my dollars will go

00:34:56.660 to Venezuela

00:34:57.320 instead of the

00:34:58.220 United States

00:34:58.880 and he's literally

00:35:00.180 choosing the most

00:35:01.320 polluting option

00:35:02.280 when there's a

00:35:03.520 perfect substitute

00:35:04.700 available.

00:35:05.760 available.

00:35:07.440 Now,

00:35:08.560 to be fair,

00:35:10.660 to be fair,

00:35:12.140 lots of times

00:35:13.060 people like me

00:35:13.940 ignore that time

00:35:15.640 has any element

00:35:16.500 or variable in this.

00:35:18.120 So let me not do that.

00:35:20.300 It could be

00:35:21.340 that if we're talking

00:35:23.080 about the next,

00:35:23.900 you know,

00:35:24.500 60 days,

00:35:26.420 that we've got to do

00:35:27.260 some kind of

00:35:28.840 out-of-the-box things

00:35:29.880 just to keep

00:35:30.460 the lights up.

00:35:31.140 And it may be

00:35:32.580 that if we're talking

00:35:33.240 about 60 days,

00:35:34.200 we just need to get

00:35:34.980 any oil we can,

00:35:35.940 anywhere we can.

00:35:37.820 But if you're talking

00:35:38.720 about what's it look

00:35:39.960 like in a year,

00:35:41.600 then you think

00:35:42.260 that domestic production

00:35:43.540 would be the obvious

00:35:44.540 way to go.

00:35:46.060 But,

00:35:47.360 here's the political

00:35:48.400 calculation,

00:35:49.400 I think.

00:35:51.700 Momentum matters.

00:35:53.920 So if Biden

00:35:55.020 is trying to go

00:35:55.840 green in the long run,

00:35:57.960 any reversal in that

00:35:59.300 is going to be

00:35:59.760 harder again

00:36:00.860 to reverse the reversal.

00:36:02.980 So he may want to say,

00:36:04.060 he might say,

00:36:05.480 it's easier to turn

00:36:06.380 off Venezuela

00:36:07.100 than it is to turn

00:36:09.300 off American oil

00:36:10.260 production again.

00:36:12.600 You know,

00:36:12.920 he already got enough

00:36:14.200 trouble for doing it

00:36:15.000 once.

00:36:16.320 He doesn't want to

00:36:17.220 ramp it up to have

00:36:18.340 to ramp it down again

00:36:19.220 when things return

00:36:20.520 to normal.

00:36:21.760 So it could be

00:36:23.100 that the Venezuela

00:36:25.700 option makes sense

00:36:26.980 for the short term.

00:36:28.820 and it's easier

00:36:30.020 to just turn it off

00:36:31.140 because you don't care.

00:36:34.300 So,

00:36:34.960 it might not be crazy,

00:36:36.220 but I haven't heard

00:36:36.780 the argument.

00:36:38.100 So here's the thing.

00:36:40.140 If you haven't heard

00:36:41.280 the argument for it,

00:36:43.260 you must assume

00:36:44.140 the worst.

00:36:45.700 Can I establish

00:36:46.740 the standard

00:36:47.400 for politics?

00:36:48.980 It's the standard

00:36:49.680 for which I thought

00:36:50.480 Obama should have

00:36:51.640 been impeached.

00:36:53.980 I'll take you back

00:36:55.380 many years

00:36:56.280 to Obama administration.

00:36:57.700 he got into office

00:36:59.740 by saying

00:37:00.280 he was open-minded

00:37:02.560 about weed

00:37:03.860 and he wasn't

00:37:05.300 going to go after

00:37:05.900 weed stuff.

00:37:08.100 But as president,

00:37:09.400 he reversed it

00:37:10.280 and started to go hard

00:37:11.720 after dispensaries

00:37:13.160 in California

00:37:13.900 that were legal

00:37:15.480 in California

00:37:16.200 but not under

00:37:17.440 federal law.

00:37:18.660 So he did exactly

00:37:19.780 the opposite

00:37:20.400 of what he said

00:37:21.180 he would do

00:37:21.700 without explaining it.

00:37:24.820 it's the

00:37:26.880 without explaining it

00:37:27.960 part

00:37:28.200 that I say

00:37:29.280 should have been

00:37:30.420 impeachable.

00:37:31.500 I mean,

00:37:31.720 I don't know

00:37:32.080 if that's

00:37:32.740 technically impeachable.

00:37:34.760 But in terms of

00:37:35.520 what is the right

00:37:36.740 thing to do,

00:37:38.020 if you change

00:37:39.000 your policy

00:37:39.660 or even if you

00:37:41.200 create a new policy

00:37:42.160 and you refuse

00:37:43.400 to explain why,

00:37:45.920 you should be fired.

00:37:47.240 If you do something

00:37:50.080 I don't like

00:37:50.860 and it doesn't

00:37:51.480 turn out well,

00:37:52.840 well,

00:37:53.260 I might not think

00:37:54.240 you deserve to get fired

00:37:55.160 because I do understand

00:37:57.140 that all of our leaders,

00:37:58.960 Trump included,

00:38:00.460 they're all going

00:38:01.380 to make mistakes.

00:38:02.680 That's just sort of

00:38:03.460 baked in.

00:38:04.460 You're not going

00:38:05.000 to look at the one mistake

00:38:06.020 unless it's so egregious.

00:38:08.520 But typically,

00:38:09.640 you have to look

00:38:10.100 at the whole package

00:38:10.920 because they make

00:38:11.500 some mistakes

00:38:12.020 and they do

00:38:12.480 some good stuff.

00:38:13.620 If you don't look

00:38:14.200 at it all,

00:38:14.680 you're just being

00:38:15.160 ridiculous.

00:38:17.240 So,

00:38:18.800 the fact that

00:38:20.620 Biden has not

00:38:21.380 explained to us

00:38:22.420 why he would

00:38:24.180 pursue the

00:38:25.980 Venezuelan oil

00:38:26.860 is a real problem.

00:38:28.880 But it might be

00:38:30.040 that the policy

00:38:31.300 itself actually

00:38:32.020 makes sense.

00:38:33.900 And I don't think

00:38:35.080 it's too strong

00:38:35.940 a standard

00:38:37.500 to say that

00:38:38.840 if your administration

00:38:39.700 won't give you

00:38:40.600 their argument,

00:38:42.320 they should be fired.

00:38:44.860 Does anybody

00:38:45.540 disagree with that?

00:38:46.260 If you had

00:38:47.340 an employee

00:38:47.880 who wouldn't

00:38:49.380 tell you

00:38:49.800 why he was

00:38:50.360 doing stuff,

00:38:52.060 you'd fire

00:38:52.900 their ass right away.

00:38:53.960 It wouldn't matter

00:38:54.560 if they did

00:38:55.040 a good job,

00:38:55.740 right?

00:38:56.640 You'd just say,

00:38:57.500 okay,

00:38:57.680 that doesn't work.

00:38:58.580 Chain of command.

00:38:59.320 Boom.

00:39:00.840 Yeah.

00:39:02.640 So,

00:39:03.500 everybody's waiting

00:39:06.780 for some kind

00:39:07.420 of breakthrough

00:39:08.260 in the Ukraine

00:39:09.100 situation

00:39:09.720 to get a peace

00:39:10.780 deal.

00:39:11.020 and I think

00:39:13.720 the peace deal

00:39:14.240 is rather easy.

00:39:16.420 Rather easy.

00:39:18.040 And here's all

00:39:18.980 you'd have to do.

00:39:20.760 And by the way,

00:39:21.920 if you didn't know

00:39:22.600 this,

00:39:23.880 if you want

00:39:24.760 major breakthroughs

00:39:26.140 in international

00:39:27.480 thorny situations,

00:39:30.220 you should talk

00:39:31.460 to cartoonists

00:39:32.340 who do live streams.

00:39:34.100 Because,

00:39:34.800 man,

00:39:35.140 do we have

00:39:35.500 a good track record

00:39:36.260 of fixing

00:39:36.680 international events.

00:39:37.800 But here's what I,

00:39:41.140 it looks like

00:39:41.540 an easy situation,

00:39:42.560 so let me just

00:39:43.200 explain the situation

00:39:45.040 and then you can

00:39:45.480 see why it's so easy.

00:39:46.940 So the only thing

00:39:47.760 we need to end

00:39:48.360 the war in Ukraine,

00:39:50.360 all right,

00:39:50.660 this is the only

00:39:51.440 thing you need.

00:39:52.220 We'll just keep it simple.

00:39:53.620 You don't need

00:39:54.040 all the details.

00:39:55.660 This is all it would

00:39:56.380 take to end

00:39:56.800 the war in Ukraine.

00:39:58.320 All you need

00:39:58.980 is some kind

00:40:00.100 of totally

00:40:00.960 unenforceable

00:40:02.380 peace deal

00:40:02.960 between the two

00:40:04.640 least trustworthy

00:40:05.720 entities on the

00:40:06.700 planet

00:40:07.040 both of whom

00:40:09.100 apparently believe

00:40:09.960 they're winning

00:40:10.500 and for whom

00:40:13.760 losing means death.

00:40:17.620 So,

00:40:18.640 how hard could it be

00:40:20.100 under that situation

00:40:21.400 for the parties

00:40:22.760 involved to

00:40:23.580 come up with a deal?

00:40:28.860 Well,

00:40:29.740 it might be hard.

00:40:31.880 But,

00:40:33.100 I'm going to explain

00:40:34.140 to you how Trump

00:40:35.020 might make it work

00:40:37.500 or at least

00:40:38.980 would make a

00:40:39.740 better attempt

00:40:40.300 at it.

00:40:40.960 Nobody knows

00:40:41.640 what would work.

00:40:43.420 And it goes like

00:40:44.100 this.

00:40:44.780 And this will be

00:40:45.960 my new segment

00:40:47.720 called

00:40:48.240 WWTD,

00:40:50.300 What Would Trump

00:40:51.000 Do?

00:40:52.080 What Would Trump

00:40:52.760 Do?

00:40:54.080 Well,

00:40:54.640 the first thing

00:40:55.160 Trump would have

00:40:55.720 done is he would

00:40:56.660 be unpredictable.

00:40:58.940 Am I right?

00:40:59.340 And I am seeing

00:41:01.620 smart pundits say

00:41:02.760 that when Biden

00:41:04.220 said we're

00:41:04.980 definitely not

00:41:05.600 going to put

00:41:06.660 any troops

00:41:07.300 against Russia

00:41:08.280 that Russia

00:41:09.520 knew exactly

00:41:10.280 what the worst

00:41:11.340 case scenario

00:41:11.980 was and it

00:41:13.500 wasn't bad

00:41:14.060 enough to stop

00:41:14.700 them from

00:41:15.060 invading.

00:41:15.660 So it was

00:41:15.940 basically

00:41:16.460 permission.

00:41:17.780 Now,

00:41:18.060 number one,

00:41:19.200 would Trump

00:41:19.880 have been

00:41:20.720 predictable and

00:41:21.860 said under

00:41:22.820 no situation

00:41:23.680 will we act

00:41:25.120 militarily?

00:41:25.740 Don't know,

00:41:28.200 but we do

00:41:28.700 know that his

00:41:29.300 signature persuasion,

00:41:30.900 which he said

00:41:31.480 out loud and

00:41:32.940 often,

00:41:33.760 was to be

00:41:34.340 unpredictable.

00:41:35.640 So it seems

00:41:36.380 unlikely that he

00:41:37.400 would go against

00:41:38.020 his primary

00:41:39.280 method,

00:41:40.660 which he bragged

00:41:41.500 about all the

00:41:42.000 time.

00:41:43.120 So I think,

00:41:43.960 first of all,

00:41:44.380 he would be

00:41:44.740 unpredictable.

00:41:45.900 That would be

00:41:46.340 good.

00:41:47.660 But the other

00:41:48.480 thing that would

00:41:49.080 be Trumpian

00:41:49.980 is a carrot

00:41:51.980 and stick

00:41:52.600 approach.

00:41:53.400 And I'll

00:41:56.220 give you an

00:41:56.600 example and

00:41:57.120 then we'll

00:41:57.440 generalize it

00:41:58.120 to Ukraine.

00:41:59.200 I told you

00:41:59.840 about a

00:42:00.540 co-worker I

00:42:01.100 used to

00:42:01.380 work with

00:42:01.820 who would

00:42:03.500 not only

00:42:04.480 yell at

00:42:07.200 people if

00:42:07.720 they didn't

00:42:08.000 help her,

00:42:08.960 so if

00:42:09.220 she needed

00:42:10.160 help from

00:42:10.580 somebody else

00:42:11.100 in the

00:42:11.860 company and

00:42:13.400 they were

00:42:13.640 not as

00:42:14.020 responsive as

00:42:14.840 she wanted,

00:42:15.640 she would

00:42:15.940 go right to

00:42:16.400 their boss

00:42:16.900 and just

00:42:17.880 trash them

00:42:18.560 like crazy.

00:42:19.980 I mean,

00:42:20.240 really,

00:42:20.880 really trash

00:42:21.480 them.

00:42:21.740 And she

00:42:23.740 would do

00:42:24.040 it instantly

00:42:24.680 the minute

00:42:25.720 you didn't

00:42:26.160 give her

00:42:26.460 what she

00:42:26.820 wanted.

00:42:28.020 And everybody

00:42:28.500 knew that.

00:42:29.920 So she

00:42:30.380 had a

00:42:31.480 mutually

00:42:33.740 assured

00:42:34.200 destruction

00:42:34.780 thing that

00:42:35.540 was really

00:42:35.900 powerful.

00:42:36.700 But that

00:42:37.160 was only

00:42:37.500 half of

00:42:37.900 the technique.

00:42:39.520 And this

00:42:39.900 is what

00:42:40.200 Trump gets

00:42:40.700 right.

00:42:41.540 The other

00:42:42.020 half of the

00:42:42.440 technique was

00:42:43.100 if you gave

00:42:43.860 her what

00:42:44.260 she wanted,

00:42:46.340 she would

00:42:47.020 go to your

00:42:47.400 boss and say

00:42:48.100 you need a

00:42:48.820 promotion and

00:42:49.940 a raise.

00:42:51.740 reliably.

00:42:53.540 She would

00:42:54.120 go to your

00:42:54.520 boss and

00:42:55.380 say,

00:42:55.660 man,

00:42:56.520 working with

00:42:57.580 this person

00:42:58.300 has been such

00:42:58.940 a joy.

00:42:59.820 Do you

00:43:00.120 understand what

00:43:00.860 a good employee

00:43:01.440 you have?

00:43:02.280 I mean,

00:43:02.580 you should

00:43:02.840 really retain

00:43:03.460 this person.

00:43:04.220 I'd hate for

00:43:04.880 this person to

00:43:05.520 leave.

00:43:06.300 You really

00:43:06.860 ought to think

00:43:07.320 about a

00:43:07.600 promotion.

00:43:09.100 Now,

00:43:09.620 that kind of

00:43:10.020 stuff really

00:43:10.520 does have an

00:43:11.120 effect on a

00:43:11.640 boss,

00:43:12.020 does it not?

00:43:13.480 Because she

00:43:13.820 was very

00:43:14.180 convincing and

00:43:14.840 credible in

00:43:15.460 her own right

00:43:16.520 because she

00:43:16.820 was very

00:43:17.140 effective.

00:43:18.640 So here's

00:43:19.660 the technique.

00:43:20.640 It's not

00:43:21.120 good enough

00:43:21.640 to threaten.

00:43:23.660 You have

00:43:24.200 to paint a

00:43:25.020 picture of

00:43:25.620 what the

00:43:25.960 worst case

00:43:26.520 is versus

00:43:27.920 the alternative

00:43:28.660 and make

00:43:30.140 sure that

00:43:30.540 people know

00:43:31.160 that it

00:43:32.180 could be

00:43:32.480 very bad,

00:43:33.720 but here's

00:43:34.520 the Trumpian

00:43:35.080 part.

00:43:35.960 It doesn't

00:43:36.480 have to just

00:43:37.000 go back to

00:43:37.540 normal.

00:43:39.060 It's not a

00:43:39.980 question between

00:43:41.060 being normal

00:43:42.120 and being

00:43:42.700 really bad.

00:43:44.160 It's a choice

00:43:45.040 of being really

00:43:45.600 bad or why

00:43:46.960 not really

00:43:47.400 good.

00:43:49.000 What would

00:43:49.840 stop you

00:43:50.340 from getting

00:43:51.900 everything you

00:43:52.460 want?

00:43:53.720 A Trumpian

00:43:54.400 offer would

00:43:55.380 look like

00:43:55.980 North Korea.

00:43:57.940 Hey, not

00:43:58.840 only do we

00:43:59.740 have no

00:44:00.080 reason to

00:44:00.520 be enemies,

00:44:01.240 but let me

00:44:02.300 show you a

00:44:02.700 little slide

00:44:03.180 show about

00:44:04.460 how we can

00:44:05.020 invest in

00:44:05.560 North Korea

00:44:06.080 and how we

00:44:06.560 could be in

00:44:07.840 the future

00:44:08.260 economically

00:44:09.000 bound to

00:44:09.860 each other

00:44:10.280 and mutually

00:44:11.400 beneficial.

00:44:13.260 He actually

00:44:13.980 did that.

00:44:14.900 Now, what

00:44:15.260 does that do

00:44:15.660 to your

00:44:15.940 brain if

00:44:17.660 you're

00:44:17.820 Kim Jong-un?

00:44:19.280 It broke

00:44:19.880 the frame.

00:44:21.740 So that's

00:44:22.320 the technique,

00:44:23.040 breaking the

00:44:23.520 frame.

00:44:24.260 If somebody's

00:44:24.860 locked in a

00:44:25.440 frame of

00:44:26.060 you're my

00:44:26.540 enemy, you

00:44:28.200 really can't

00:44:28.860 get out of

00:44:29.240 that.

00:44:30.100 I mean, you

00:44:30.580 can't solve

00:44:31.080 it within the

00:44:31.700 frame because

00:44:32.880 you can't

00:44:33.220 make a deal

00:44:33.620 with an

00:44:33.900 enemy.

00:44:34.560 So he

00:44:35.140 changed the

00:44:35.860 frame to

00:44:36.420 enemy.

00:44:38.400 Hell, I'll

00:44:39.200 invest in

00:44:39.740 you.

00:44:40.960 Nobody

00:44:41.440 invested in

00:44:41.980 their enemy.

00:44:42.960 So the

00:44:43.600 fact that he

00:44:44.080 had put some

00:44:44.580 work into

00:44:45.280 looking at

00:44:45.860 what an

00:44:46.180 investment

00:44:46.600 would look

00:44:47.100 like, and

00:44:48.160 he was

00:44:48.460 somebody you

00:44:49.060 knew could

00:44:50.000 do business

00:44:50.620 with anybody.

00:44:52.300 I mean, that's

00:44:52.600 one of Trump's

00:44:53.180 advantages, right?

00:44:54.560 He can do

00:44:55.060 business with

00:44:55.580 anybody.

00:44:56.520 Saudi Arabia?

00:44:57.740 Yeah.

00:44:58.260 Khashoggi?

00:44:59.280 Yeah.

00:45:00.180 We'll let that

00:45:00.940 slide.

00:45:02.100 So he was

00:45:02.680 credible, I

00:45:04.340 mean, even

00:45:04.640 before Saudi

00:45:05.260 Arabia, he

00:45:05.940 was credible

00:45:06.420 as a business

00:45:07.460 person who

00:45:07.980 could make a

00:45:08.420 deal, basically.

00:45:09.180 So let's

00:45:11.840 take that back

00:45:12.440 to the

00:45:13.140 Ukraine situation.

00:45:15.000 So far, what

00:45:15.940 Putin has been

00:45:16.680 offered, see

00:45:19.280 if I'm wrong, so

00:45:20.760 far what Putin

00:45:21.460 has been

00:45:21.800 offered is

00:45:22.580 humiliating

00:45:24.020 defeat or

00:45:26.500 conquering a

00:45:28.380 country and

00:45:29.100 having so much

00:45:29.760 trouble holding

00:45:30.440 it and being

00:45:31.720 sanctioned

00:45:32.280 forever.

00:45:33.300 I mean,

00:45:33.620 basically, two

00:45:35.880 bad choices.

00:45:36.700 And we're

00:45:38.260 wanting him to

00:45:39.300 do something

00:45:39.780 that we want

00:45:40.500 him to do

00:45:41.120 by giving him

00:45:42.920 two bad

00:45:43.520 choices.

00:45:44.800 How does

00:45:45.180 that work?

00:45:46.680 How does

00:45:46.980 that work?

00:45:49.440 Here's what a

00:45:50.620 Trumpian, and

00:45:51.660 again, I'm not

00:45:52.300 going to say

00:45:52.620 Trump would do

00:45:53.500 this.

00:45:54.140 I just use him

00:45:54.940 as a handy

00:45:55.420 reference point,

00:45:56.200 right?

00:45:56.780 A reference

00:45:57.360 point of

00:45:57.880 somebody who

00:45:58.420 would make a

00:45:59.620 creative negotiating

00:46:02.160 deal.

00:46:03.840 The first thing

00:46:04.820 Trump would do

00:46:05.680 is shake the

00:46:06.300 box.

00:46:07.640 Just change

00:46:08.300 some variables

00:46:08.920 somehow.

00:46:10.240 Somehow.

00:46:11.140 I mean, the

00:46:11.480 Ukrainians changed

00:46:12.400 the variable by

00:46:13.200 holding on as

00:46:14.180 long as they

00:46:14.620 did.

00:46:15.440 But one of the

00:46:16.020 things you could

00:46:16.420 do is put more

00:46:17.280 things into the

00:46:18.060 offer.

00:46:19.480 So right now

00:46:19.980 we're saying,

00:46:20.800 you know,

00:46:21.380 Ukraine,

00:46:22.240 Russia,

00:46:23.340 sanctions.

00:46:24.040 That's sort of

00:46:24.600 the whole package.

00:46:26.600 There are probably

00:46:27.220 some positive

00:46:27.940 things you could

00:46:28.520 put in there.

00:46:29.900 You could

00:46:30.440 probably paint a

00:46:31.380 picture of an

00:46:32.900 upside.

00:46:34.540 Imagine you

00:46:35.260 said,

00:46:35.560 let's just

00:46:36.920 take this as

00:46:37.580 an example.

00:46:38.560 And I'm not

00:46:38.940 saying this

00:46:39.340 would work.

00:46:40.020 We're just

00:46:40.520 talking through

00:46:40.980 the concept

00:46:41.460 here.

00:46:42.920 Suppose,

00:46:43.580 as the

00:46:44.200 pundits are

00:46:44.620 saying,

00:46:45.000 that one of

00:46:45.420 the things

00:46:45.640 Russia wants

00:46:46.540 is this

00:46:47.020 land bridge

00:46:47.720 so that

00:46:48.880 Russia itself

00:46:49.820 is connected

00:46:50.520 all the way

00:46:50.980 to the Black

00:46:51.460 Sea.

00:46:52.240 And you

00:46:52.560 can see why

00:46:53.020 they would

00:46:53.300 want that.

00:46:53.780 Now,

00:46:55.360 how much

00:46:56.560 does anybody

00:46:57.440 else care,

00:46:58.640 any other

00:46:59.180 country,

00:47:00.280 if Russia

00:47:01.020 has a good

00:47:02.020 economic

00:47:02.660 path to

00:47:04.400 the Black

00:47:04.800 Sea?

00:47:05.780 Is that

00:47:06.320 really something

00:47:07.200 we care about?

00:47:09.000 Or

00:47:09.320 shouldn't

00:47:10.920 everybody have

00:47:11.700 a good

00:47:13.100 transportation

00:47:14.220 system?

00:47:15.860 Like,

00:47:16.060 why are we

00:47:17.060 afraid of

00:47:17.480 their

00:47:17.660 transportation

00:47:18.240 system?

00:47:18.920 I feel

00:47:20.700 like that's

00:47:21.560 a little

00:47:21.860 unconfident

00:47:22.740 on our

00:47:23.140 parts.

00:47:23.720 Now,

00:47:23.920 I get

00:47:24.220 that if

00:47:25.140 they're

00:47:25.380 an evil

00:47:26.080 empire,

00:47:27.200 you don't

00:47:27.720 want their

00:47:28.100 economy to

00:47:28.780 get bigger.

00:47:30.280 But if

00:47:31.140 you wanted

00:47:31.480 a negotiating

00:47:33.100 point that

00:47:33.840 understands

00:47:34.480 everybody's

00:47:35.060 going to

00:47:35.240 have to

00:47:35.460 give up

00:47:35.780 something,

00:47:36.700 here's what

00:47:37.260 a deal

00:47:37.520 would look

00:47:37.880 like.

00:47:38.940 Okay,

00:47:39.400 Russia,

00:47:40.360 tell us

00:47:40.800 what your

00:47:41.160 economic

00:47:41.880 interests

00:47:42.440 are.

00:47:44.900 And that's

00:47:45.700 the deal

00:47:46.040 we'll make.

00:47:47.460 Tell us

00:47:48.100 what your

00:47:48.440 economic

00:47:49.260 interests

00:47:49.700 are.

00:47:50.700 Period.

00:47:51.500 And that's

00:47:51.820 the deal

00:47:52.060 we'll make.

00:47:52.740 Now,

00:47:53.400 you also,

00:47:55.240 in return

00:47:55.820 for this

00:47:56.260 stuff,

00:47:56.600 you're

00:47:56.740 probably

00:47:56.960 going to

00:47:57.220 have to

00:47:57.600 figure out

00:47:58.120 how to

00:47:58.480 protect

00:47:58.860 Ukraine

00:47:59.340 without

00:48:00.880 putting

00:48:01.600 military

00:48:02.040 in there.

00:48:02.720 That's

00:48:02.880 probably

00:48:03.080 going to

00:48:03.280 have to

00:48:03.500 be part

00:48:03.760 of the

00:48:03.940 deal.

00:48:05.040 So,

00:48:06.000 how hard

00:48:06.500 would it

00:48:06.740 be for

00:48:07.040 us to

00:48:07.380 promise

00:48:07.800 that

00:48:08.340 Ukraine

00:48:08.900 will be

00:48:09.460 a so-called

00:48:10.760 neutral

00:48:11.120 country and

00:48:11.920 not a

00:48:12.320 NATO

00:48:12.540 country?

00:48:14.360 I think

00:48:15.080 we could

00:48:15.380 promise

00:48:15.700 that.

00:48:16.060 you know

00:48:18.180 why?

00:48:19.020 Because we

00:48:19.360 could always

00:48:19.680 change our

00:48:20.160 mind.

00:48:21.680 Right?

00:48:22.340 Why would

00:48:22.960 we hold

00:48:23.340 back on

00:48:23.780 a promise

00:48:24.380 when we

00:48:26.060 would get

00:48:26.420 something for

00:48:27.020 it that

00:48:27.280 would be

00:48:27.600 enormous

00:48:27.980 and we

00:48:29.960 wouldn't

00:48:30.300 give up

00:48:30.640 anything?

00:48:31.320 Because we

00:48:31.900 could just

00:48:32.220 change our

00:48:32.640 mind in

00:48:33.320 the future

00:48:33.720 if the

00:48:34.540 situation

00:48:34.940 changed.

00:48:37.200 So I

00:48:37.900 think that

00:48:38.420 the NATO

00:48:39.640 part is the

00:48:40.260 most solvable

00:48:40.840 part.

00:48:41.720 You just

00:48:42.140 say you'll

00:48:42.600 do it,

00:48:42.940 and if

00:48:43.800 events

00:48:44.160 change and

00:48:44.760 you need

00:48:45.040 to change

00:48:45.440 your mind

00:48:45.860 and you

00:48:46.160 need to

00:48:46.460 make them

00:48:46.720 NATO,

00:48:47.160 then you

00:48:47.400 do it.

00:48:48.640 But I

00:48:49.260 like this

00:48:49.660 concept of

00:48:50.260 creating

00:48:50.580 neutral

00:48:50.960 countries.

00:48:52.780 Because the

00:48:53.520 whole idea

00:48:54.840 of an

00:48:55.320 industrialized

00:48:56.320 military

00:48:56.920 power invading

00:48:58.560 a neighbor,

00:48:59.800 that really

00:49:00.380 has to stop

00:49:01.160 with this.

00:49:02.860 That really,

00:49:04.140 this needs to

00:49:04.940 be the last

00:49:05.540 one of those.

00:49:06.780 Which is kind

00:49:07.360 of why I

00:49:08.520 think Ukraine

00:49:09.060 is doing the

00:49:09.580 world a big

00:49:10.060 favor.

00:49:10.400 by making

00:49:12.120 it so

00:49:12.620 impractical

00:49:13.460 to attack

00:49:14.540 your neighbor

00:49:15.040 with tanks,

00:49:17.400 I think

00:49:18.420 they may

00:49:18.860 stop future

00:49:19.920 wars,

00:49:21.080 assuming they

00:49:21.920 prevail.

00:49:25.420 So I

00:49:26.380 would love

00:49:26.720 to see the

00:49:27.520 United States

00:49:28.220 first of all

00:49:28.840 produce two

00:49:29.800 GDP predictions.

00:49:32.000 One,

00:49:32.740 if Putin

00:49:33.480 stays in

00:49:34.500 power,

00:49:35.580 which presumes

00:49:36.420 sanctions

00:49:36.980 stay in,

00:49:37.800 and one,

00:49:38.420 if he

00:49:39.420 doesn't.

00:49:40.400 And so we

00:49:41.620 should be

00:49:41.940 able to

00:49:42.240 show to

00:49:42.720 the Russian

00:49:43.840 people two

00:49:45.160 graphs.

00:49:46.280 Putin in

00:49:46.700 power,

00:49:47.580 you all

00:49:47.960 make money.

00:49:49.220 Putin,

00:49:49.820 I'm sorry,

00:49:50.700 Putin in

00:49:51.060 power,

00:49:51.520 you lose

00:49:52.080 money.

00:49:53.240 Putin's in

00:49:53.660 power,

00:49:54.460 you're up

00:49:55.260 8%,

00:49:55.820 or whatever

00:49:56.180 it is.

00:49:57.320 And I

00:49:59.600 think that

00:50:01.060 there should

00:50:01.400 be a

00:50:01.880 sweetener to

00:50:02.680 the offer.

00:50:03.200 So it'd be

00:50:03.580 something like,

00:50:04.700 all right,

00:50:05.260 we'll make a

00:50:06.980 serious effort to

00:50:08.020 make Ukraine

00:50:08.940 neutral,

00:50:09.620 whatever that

00:50:10.180 means.

00:50:12.240 But there's

00:50:12.920 probably a way

00:50:13.540 to protect

00:50:14.700 them in a

00:50:15.340 neutral

00:50:15.760 context.

00:50:19.040 But what

00:50:19.720 happens if

00:50:20.380 Russia says,

00:50:21.560 yeah,

00:50:21.920 we'll keep

00:50:22.340 our hands

00:50:22.720 off them,

00:50:23.420 and then

00:50:23.700 they start

00:50:24.040 doing their

00:50:24.500 bribery and

00:50:25.620 cyber attacks

00:50:27.220 and all their

00:50:28.880 underhanded

00:50:29.480 stuff?

00:50:30.440 Well,

00:50:30.880 then you say,

00:50:31.620 okay,

00:50:31.860 if you do

00:50:32.300 that stuff,

00:50:33.740 then the

00:50:34.240 NATO question

00:50:34.880 is back on

00:50:35.400 the table.

00:50:37.000 So you

00:50:37.540 just say to

00:50:37.980 Russia,

00:50:38.460 absolutely,

00:50:39.060 we will

00:50:39.320 totally promise

00:50:40.060 that Ukraine

00:50:40.500 will never

00:50:41.100 go into

00:50:41.680 NATO,

00:50:42.300 as long as

00:50:43.740 they're not

00:50:44.620 actively under

00:50:45.400 attack.

00:50:46.920 And that

00:50:47.580 includes

00:50:47.940 cyber.

00:50:50.000 Right?

00:50:50.700 Now,

00:50:51.060 I don't think

00:50:51.440 there's anything

00:50:52.060 that would

00:50:52.300 stop Russia

00:50:52.900 from cyber

00:50:53.480 attacks.

00:50:54.800 But you

00:50:55.600 can at least

00:50:56.060 tell them

00:50:57.620 that that

00:50:58.380 gives you a

00:50:59.040 trigger to

00:51:00.500 change your

00:51:01.440 mind about

00:51:01.820 NATO.

00:51:03.120 So you

00:51:03.620 always have

00:51:04.120 the out

00:51:04.540 because they're

00:51:05.060 always going

00:51:05.520 to be cyber

00:51:06.020 attacking you

00:51:06.700 or you

00:51:07.540 can always

00:51:07.920 say they

00:51:08.340 were.

00:51:09.600 You have

00:51:10.220 the easiest

00:51:11.060 out of that

00:51:11.800 promise anybody

00:51:12.500 ever had.

00:51:14.400 And then I

00:51:15.340 think you

00:51:15.680 should promise

00:51:16.180 them a

00:51:16.660 land bridge,

00:51:17.820 but not

00:51:18.740 necessarily

00:51:19.660 through

00:51:20.820 annexation.

00:51:22.960 If you're

00:51:23.660 willing to

00:51:24.120 make Ukraine

00:51:24.840 neutral,

00:51:26.280 why do you

00:51:26.940 need to own

00:51:27.720 the land

00:51:28.280 bridge?

00:51:30.020 Right?

00:51:31.460 Neutrality,

00:51:32.280 by definition,

00:51:33.200 means the

00:51:34.220 Russians can

00:51:34.800 drive there

00:51:35.620 with just

00:51:36.180 show their

00:51:36.800 passport and

00:51:37.420 say, hey,

00:51:37.760 I'm taking

00:51:38.760 this truck

00:51:39.300 across the

00:51:39.820 land bridge

00:51:40.340 to the

00:51:41.620 Black Sea.

00:51:43.340 So it

00:51:43.940 seems to

00:51:44.320 me that

00:51:44.720 neutrality,

00:51:45.860 if somebody

00:51:46.380 could define

00:51:47.020 one that

00:51:47.400 could work,

00:51:49.840 is something

00:51:50.260 you could

00:51:50.520 work with.

00:51:51.420 But I

00:51:52.000 think you

00:51:52.280 want to

00:51:52.600 promise the

00:51:53.120 upside, too.

00:51:53.900 So they

00:51:54.300 might need

00:51:54.660 the land

00:51:55.060 bridge,

00:51:55.500 they might

00:51:55.800 need the

00:51:56.600 demilitarization,

00:51:58.340 they definitely

00:51:59.140 need Putin to

00:51:59.940 look like he

00:52:00.460 won.

00:52:00.780 Right?

00:52:02.920 Now, here's

00:52:07.240 the thing.

00:52:08.700 Who times

00:52:09.240 it, by

00:52:09.560 the way?

00:52:10.520 Okay.

00:52:12.960 I don't

00:52:13.680 know if the

00:52:14.460 United States

00:52:15.220 wants any

00:52:16.760 scenario that

00:52:17.700 allows Putin to

00:52:18.640 stay in power.

00:52:19.440 What do you

00:52:19.740 think?

00:52:20.960 Because it's

00:52:21.400 not like we

00:52:21.940 know who

00:52:22.300 would replace

00:52:22.880 him.

00:52:23.620 It seems

00:52:24.220 pretty iffy.

00:52:25.840 I think we

00:52:26.680 would rather

00:52:27.140 contain him

00:52:28.080 than replace

00:52:28.900 him.

00:52:29.340 Is that

00:52:29.660 right?

00:52:29.880 What do

00:52:31.520 you think?

00:52:31.960 I mean, we

00:52:32.300 don't have

00:52:32.660 an explicit

00:52:33.260 stated policy

00:52:34.800 about that

00:52:35.260 because we

00:52:35.620 wouldn't say

00:52:36.060 that out

00:52:36.400 loud.

00:52:37.760 What do

00:52:38.220 you say?

00:52:38.560 Do you

00:52:38.760 say contain

00:52:39.480 him or

00:52:40.140 replace him?

00:52:40.880 What is

00:52:41.180 the U.S.

00:52:44.640 secret goal?

00:52:46.040 Not what

00:52:46.460 they can say

00:52:46.900 in public.

00:52:49.040 Contain,

00:52:49.640 replace.

00:52:50.480 Okay, we're

00:52:50.860 all over the

00:52:51.320 board here.

00:52:52.480 All right, your

00:52:52.860 opinions are

00:52:53.420 all over the

00:52:53.840 board.

00:52:55.560 Meaning, I

00:52:56.180 don't know.

00:52:57.060 I'm not even

00:52:57.520 sure what the

00:52:57.940 American plan is.

00:52:58.780 but I'm

00:53:01.020 not so

00:53:01.480 sure we're

00:53:02.120 not better

00:53:02.760 off trying

00:53:03.780 to squash

00:53:04.500 him.

00:53:05.380 By the way,

00:53:06.040 all the

00:53:06.320 people who

00:53:06.680 say that

00:53:07.000 economic

00:53:07.440 sanctions

00:53:07.920 don't work,

00:53:09.400 here is my

00:53:10.040 argument to

00:53:10.640 you.

00:53:12.880 Everything

00:53:13.440 doesn't work

00:53:14.360 until it

00:53:14.860 does.

00:53:18.200 Human

00:53:18.760 flight in

00:53:19.560 an airplane

00:53:20.020 didn't work

00:53:21.680 until it

00:53:22.640 did.

00:53:24.420 Right?

00:53:24.560 fusion has

00:53:26.920 never worked,

00:53:28.300 but it

00:53:29.540 looks like

00:53:29.860 it might.

00:53:31.100 So there

00:53:31.460 are lots of

00:53:31.860 things that

00:53:32.240 never worked

00:53:32.860 until they

00:53:33.340 did.

00:53:34.200 And it's

00:53:34.440 because the

00:53:35.040 technology

00:53:35.580 usually changes

00:53:37.280 to the point

00:53:37.880 where the

00:53:38.240 impossible

00:53:38.660 becomes

00:53:39.140 possible.

00:53:40.380 Electric

00:53:40.780 cars,

00:53:41.560 flying cars,

00:53:42.980 that's all

00:53:43.820 going to be

00:53:44.120 possible.

00:53:45.240 You just

00:53:45.580 have to

00:53:45.860 wait until

00:53:46.400 it's ready.

00:53:47.760 And my

00:53:49.640 contribution

00:53:50.660 to this

00:53:51.360 is that

00:53:52.260 we've never

00:53:52.880 been so

00:53:53.620 economically

00:53:55.160 connected

00:53:55.820 and we've

00:53:56.860 never had

00:53:57.280 so much

00:53:57.760 ability to

00:53:58.420 communicate

00:53:58.920 because of

00:53:59.540 the internet.

00:54:01.200 So at

00:54:01.620 this point,

00:54:02.540 we may have

00:54:03.240 reached a

00:54:03.580 point where

00:54:04.000 for the

00:54:04.400 first time

00:54:05.220 economic

00:54:06.940 sanctions

00:54:07.440 could be

00:54:08.000 a kill

00:54:08.580 shot

00:54:08.940 in a way

00:54:11.280 that they

00:54:11.720 never could

00:54:12.320 have been

00:54:12.680 before.

00:54:13.300 Or,

00:54:14.160 it might

00:54:16.820 be in the

00:54:17.180 future,

00:54:17.580 but we're

00:54:17.880 not there

00:54:18.220 yet.

00:54:19.480 So this

00:54:20.220 is an

00:54:20.540 interesting

00:54:20.840 test,

00:54:21.400 because if

00:54:21.980 this takes

00:54:22.520 Putin out,

00:54:23.940 it would

00:54:24.220 be the

00:54:24.480 first time

00:54:24.960 an economic

00:54:25.660 sanction,

00:54:27.080 sanctions,

00:54:28.400 took out

00:54:28.840 a leader.

00:54:29.580 Am I

00:54:29.820 right?

00:54:30.560 Hey,

00:54:30.800 are there

00:54:31.220 any

00:54:31.460 historians

00:54:31.980 here who

00:54:32.380 can answer

00:54:32.680 that question?

00:54:33.880 Has any

00:54:34.360 leader been

00:54:37.360 taken out

00:54:38.100 through

00:54:39.300 economic

00:54:39.860 sanctions

00:54:40.420 alone?

00:54:41.660 Meaning

00:54:41.980 that their

00:54:42.420 own people

00:54:42.900 took him

00:54:43.240 out because

00:54:43.920 they couldn't

00:54:44.420 stand it.

00:54:45.360 Carsher.

00:54:47.180 South

00:54:50.640 Africa?

00:54:52.340 Would you

00:54:52.960 say South

00:54:53.460 Africa is

00:54:53.940 an example?

00:54:54.780 But that

00:54:55.180 took 20

00:54:55.640 years,

00:54:56.040 right?

00:54:56.740 Or 30?

00:54:58.280 I don't know

00:54:59.260 my South

00:54:59.720 African

00:55:00.040 history.

00:55:02.200 Yeah,

00:55:02.420 I guess

00:55:02.680 South Africa

00:55:03.620 would be

00:55:04.180 a case.

00:55:05.980 The czars

00:55:06.360 of Russia,

00:55:06.920 somebody says?

00:55:08.940 I don't know.

00:55:09.820 I guess I

00:55:10.560 don't know

00:55:10.840 enough about

00:55:11.320 my history.

00:55:11.920 But it

00:55:13.240 would be

00:55:13.640 an interesting

00:55:14.280 turning point

00:55:15.040 in civilization

00:55:16.280 if economic

00:55:17.780 sanctions

00:55:18.280 took him

00:55:18.980 out.

00:55:19.560 Now,

00:55:19.800 here's the

00:55:20.120 other

00:55:20.240 possibility.

00:55:21.600 The other

00:55:22.080 possibility is

00:55:22.900 that China

00:55:25.160 and Russia

00:55:25.660 and Saudi

00:55:27.540 Arabia get

00:55:28.180 together and

00:55:28.820 they start

00:55:29.900 trading in

00:55:30.720 the yuan

00:55:31.380 instead of

00:55:32.060 the dollar.

00:55:32.420 And then

00:55:33.640 suddenly there's

00:55:34.840 like two

00:55:35.460 separate economic

00:55:37.820 systems,

00:55:38.540 the dollar-based

00:55:39.160 one and the

00:55:39.820 yuan-based one.

00:55:40.540 And here's

00:55:41.960 what I say.

00:55:43.460 Isn't that

00:55:44.160 going to

00:55:44.400 happen anyway?

00:55:46.660 That kind of

00:55:47.220 has to happen,

00:55:47.860 doesn't it?

00:55:48.740 Because China's

00:55:49.640 just going to

00:55:50.020 be too big

00:55:51.700 for anybody

00:55:53.540 to say no

00:55:54.180 to their

00:55:54.480 currency.

00:55:56.560 Let me ask

00:55:57.320 this question.

00:55:58.820 Isn't the

00:55:59.400 only thing

00:55:59.860 that makes

00:56:00.220 currency valuable

00:56:01.340 is if there's

00:56:03.120 somebody who

00:56:03.620 will take it?

00:56:05.140 Am I right?

00:56:06.240 There's nothing

00:56:06.740 else.

00:56:07.960 The one thing

00:56:08.600 that makes

00:56:09.020 any currency

00:56:10.020 or any

00:56:10.580 crypto valuable

00:56:11.360 is that you

00:56:12.680 have some

00:56:13.220 assurance that

00:56:14.060 somebody will

00:56:14.540 take it.

00:56:16.100 Now doesn't

00:56:16.700 the size of

00:56:17.580 China itself

00:56:18.460 guarantee that

00:56:20.060 there's always a

00:56:20.660 market for the

00:56:21.260 yuan or

00:56:22.260 doesn't it work

00:56:22.800 that way?

00:56:24.380 You could have

00:56:26.240 a degree in

00:56:26.720 economics and

00:56:27.440 still be totally

00:56:28.100 lost if you're

00:56:29.420 a little bit

00:56:30.060 outside your

00:56:30.680 channel.

00:56:34.700 It seems to

00:56:35.660 me that there's

00:56:36.760 no way to

00:56:37.760 avoid at least

00:56:38.700 a second

00:56:39.200 currency,

00:56:40.600 the yuan.

00:56:41.880 So I don't

00:56:42.500 know if it

00:56:44.040 makes any

00:56:44.460 difference because

00:56:45.180 it was going

00:56:45.520 to happen

00:56:45.740 anyway.

00:56:46.100 Maybe it

00:56:47.500 speeds it up.

00:56:48.800 Or maybe

00:56:49.260 just every

00:56:50.520 currency will

00:56:51.200 be

00:56:52.140 transferable.

00:56:55.040 I don't

00:56:55.500 exactly

00:56:55.920 understand.

00:56:56.900 Do you?

00:56:57.760 Why is it

00:56:58.400 that you have

00:56:58.740 to buy oil

00:56:59.560 in dollars?

00:57:02.220 Is there

00:57:02.780 any reason

00:57:03.200 for that?

00:57:03.640 Is it because

00:57:04.300 we assume it's

00:57:05.420 not going to

00:57:06.160 fluctuate as

00:57:06.780 much?

00:57:07.080 Is that the

00:57:07.440 only reason?

00:57:11.200 Because I

00:57:11.760 think that

00:57:12.360 alone could

00:57:12.920 be solved.

00:57:13.720 If fluctuation

00:57:14.400 is the only

00:57:14.820 problem, it

00:57:15.240 seems like you

00:57:15.720 could solve it

00:57:16.340 just contractually.

00:57:20.160 Yeah, we're

00:57:20.760 the most stable

00:57:21.380 economy, so you

00:57:22.300 just assume that

00:57:22.980 the dollar will

00:57:23.640 stay valuable

00:57:24.740 and have a

00:57:25.420 market forever.

00:57:27.460 I don't know,

00:57:28.060 that seems

00:57:28.400 pretty solvable.

00:57:29.760 I think China

00:57:30.640 looks pretty...

00:57:31.640 China's going to

00:57:32.240 be around,

00:57:32.860 right?

00:57:33.040 Saudi Arabia's

00:57:34.640 going to be

00:57:34.880 around for a

00:57:35.380 while.

00:57:37.080 All right.

00:57:40.100 What do you

00:57:40.660 think about

00:57:41.220 running out of

00:57:42.060 food because

00:57:42.840 of the

00:57:43.300 Ukrainian wheat

00:57:45.400 situation?

00:57:46.840 Well, I

00:57:47.460 tweeted an

00:57:48.640 article by

00:57:51.080 Aaron Smith.

00:57:52.660 He had a

00:57:53.100 blog there.

00:57:53.900 He seemed to

00:57:54.300 know what he

00:57:54.560 was talking

00:57:54.860 about, and

00:57:55.720 he was looking

00:57:56.340 at the wheat

00:57:56.800 situation in

00:57:57.520 Ukraine and

00:57:58.000 Russia.

00:57:59.120 And his

00:57:59.800 take, bottom

00:58:01.280 line, is that

00:58:02.240 even if we

00:58:03.800 lose a ton

00:58:04.460 of wheat,

00:58:05.920 well, more

00:58:06.540 than a ton,

00:58:07.200 obviously, but

00:58:08.380 a, let's

00:58:10.720 see, a lot

00:58:12.720 of wheat, if

00:58:13.960 we lose a lot

00:58:14.500 of wheat, his

00:58:16.020 argument, and

00:58:17.100 he goes through

00:58:17.680 the numbers to

00:58:18.600 make his case,

00:58:19.800 is that it

00:58:21.060 wouldn't be that

00:58:21.760 big a deal.

00:58:23.880 Do you

00:58:24.420 believe that?

00:58:25.320 And his

00:58:25.860 argument,

00:58:26.340 basically, is

00:58:27.560 that we've

00:58:28.000 had droughts

00:58:29.720 that have had

00:58:30.760 this much

00:58:31.180 impact in the

00:58:31.820 past.

00:58:33.180 So, basically,

00:58:34.220 if you're

00:58:34.560 having a, you

00:58:35.180 know, a

00:58:35.520 10% hit on

00:58:38.380 wheat, that's

00:58:40.020 not that

00:58:40.580 different than

00:58:42.120 hits we've

00:58:42.720 had in the

00:58:43.140 past for

00:58:43.760 various natural

00:58:44.760 reasons.

00:58:45.960 So, I mean,

00:58:46.620 imagine if we

00:58:47.440 had droughts at

00:58:48.660 the same time as

00:58:49.580 the Ukraine

00:58:49.940 thing, it'd be

00:58:50.420 twice as bad,

00:58:51.080 of course.

00:58:52.020 But, yeah, it

00:58:55.180 looks like the

00:58:56.200 price of wheat

00:58:56.700 will go up.

00:58:59.240 But there also

00:59:00.080 will be

00:59:00.480 substitutes.

00:59:01.120 and I

00:59:02.940 ask you

00:59:03.320 this, do

00:59:06.360 we even

00:59:06.680 need wheat?

00:59:09.140 Is wheat

00:59:09.820 even necessary?

00:59:12.500 Like, I'm

00:59:13.380 not even sure

00:59:13.860 people need

00:59:14.320 any of it,

00:59:14.780 do they?

00:59:15.060 I wonder if

00:59:16.400 one of the

00:59:16.780 changes will

00:59:17.420 be that

00:59:18.540 we'll come

00:59:18.880 up with a

00:59:19.340 substitute that's

00:59:20.240 just better.

00:59:21.580 I mean, a lot

00:59:22.900 of us, we

00:59:23.260 can't live

00:59:23.620 without bread.

00:59:24.380 I know what

00:59:24.680 you mean.

00:59:25.160 Like, just the

00:59:25.820 pleasure of

00:59:26.340 eating bread is

00:59:27.020 kind of awesome.

00:59:27.920 but, yeah, I

00:59:31.580 mean, rice is the

00:59:32.580 obvious replacement.

00:59:35.780 Quinoa, I

00:59:37.140 mean, quinoa is

00:59:37.740 even more

00:59:38.720 obvious.

00:59:39.780 Now, nothing's

00:59:40.500 going to happen,

00:59:41.240 there's nothing you

00:59:42.120 can do in America

00:59:42.920 that would be fast

00:59:44.040 enough to make a

00:59:44.680 difference.

00:59:45.560 So, apparently,

00:59:46.700 the idea of, you

00:59:47.740 know, quickly

00:59:48.300 growing more wheat

00:59:49.400 in America, so

00:59:50.740 we'll have some

00:59:51.260 next year, that

00:59:52.280 doesn't really hold

00:59:53.240 up, like it's not

00:59:54.040 really practical in

00:59:54.900 sort of a one-year

00:59:56.040 period, chickpeas.

01:00:00.620 I don't know.

01:00:01.640 Everything that I

01:00:02.520 see has a

01:00:03.400 potential upside.

01:00:04.720 I guess I'm

01:00:05.260 feeling optimistic.

01:00:07.140 But I think you

01:00:08.980 could argue that

01:00:09.760 wheat is one of

01:00:10.680 the biggest health

01:00:11.260 problems in the

01:00:11.940 world.

01:00:13.620 All right, am I

01:00:14.420 going to get

01:00:14.760 demonetized for

01:00:15.580 saying that?

01:00:16.380 Let me soften

01:00:17.300 that so I don't

01:00:17.840 get demonetized.

01:00:21.760 Is the world

01:00:22.660 healthier or less

01:00:23.740 healthy without

01:00:26.020 wheat?

01:00:28.240 Now, it might

01:00:28.960 be that the

01:00:29.840 problem is that

01:00:30.500 that's all the

01:00:31.720 low-income poor

01:00:32.560 people can afford,

01:00:33.720 so you just have

01:00:34.260 to have it.

01:00:35.200 Maybe.

01:00:36.140 But it seems to

01:00:36.880 me that aren't

01:00:38.800 we better off

01:00:39.400 without wheat?

01:00:42.040 I don't know.

01:00:43.360 Are we?

01:00:46.340 I do eat big

01:00:48.140 bagels, you're

01:00:48.900 right.

01:00:49.820 But at least

01:00:50.200 I have some

01:00:50.560 egg in them.

01:00:53.280 What bullshit

01:00:54.040 is this,

01:00:54.520 somebody says.

01:00:54.980 All right.

01:00:57.240 Well, that's

01:00:58.300 happening.

01:01:01.340 I saw a picture

01:01:02.380 of Trump that

01:01:03.240 was on Twitter,

01:01:04.600 and I had to

01:01:05.760 ask if it was a

01:01:06.500 fake picture,

01:01:07.940 because he

01:01:09.020 looked 50

01:01:12.020 years old.

01:01:14.060 Now, the

01:01:14.560 things that

01:01:15.020 looked obviously

01:01:16.020 to have changed

01:01:17.000 are it looks

01:01:17.640 like he's lost

01:01:18.220 weight, but

01:01:21.580 his face,

01:01:22.240 instead of

01:01:23.140 being wrinkly,

01:01:26.120 it actually

01:01:26.620 looks younger.

01:01:28.600 So I'm going

01:01:29.700 to say he

01:01:31.420 may have lost

01:01:32.260 weight, but

01:01:34.040 he may have

01:01:34.620 done a little

01:01:35.420 bit of work

01:01:37.140 on his face,

01:01:37.980 probably not

01:01:38.440 surgery.

01:01:39.620 But I think

01:01:40.420 that, yeah,

01:01:40.920 not Botox,

01:01:42.180 but I think

01:01:42.700 can't you put in

01:01:44.360 fillers and

01:01:45.140 stuff?

01:01:46.560 Maybe fillers?

01:01:47.500 I don't know

01:01:48.440 all the

01:01:48.700 technology, but

01:01:49.520 I doubt it

01:01:50.400 was a facelift.

01:01:51.660 I feel like we

01:01:52.320 would have known

01:01:52.840 that.

01:01:53.400 He couldn't

01:01:53.760 hide that,

01:01:54.200 could he?

01:01:56.920 Anyway, it

01:01:58.400 looks like he

01:01:58.860 even changed

01:01:59.340 his haircut a

01:02:00.020 little bit,

01:02:00.480 so it looks

01:02:01.040 a little bit

01:02:02.440 more like

01:02:04.200 other people's

01:02:05.160 haircuts.

01:02:06.500 So, yeah,

01:02:07.600 the lighting

01:02:07.980 was good.

01:02:09.400 I don't know,

01:02:09.760 maybe Photoshopped

01:02:10.580 a little bit.

01:02:11.040 But I'd

01:02:13.820 heard from

01:02:14.440 people who

01:02:16.240 have talked

01:02:16.900 to him

01:02:17.200 recently that

01:02:18.560 he looks

01:02:19.380 great.

01:02:20.980 Has anybody

01:02:21.580 had the same

01:02:22.380 experience?

01:02:23.120 Does anybody

01:02:23.600 know anybody

01:02:24.360 who has seen

01:02:25.580 him recently

01:02:26.200 and said he

01:02:28.260 looks great?

01:02:30.220 Besides losing

01:02:31.360 weight?

01:02:34.320 Yeah.

01:02:35.780 Maybe less

01:02:36.420 stress, yeah,

01:02:37.140 less stress.

01:02:39.600 Might be a

01:02:40.060 laser treatment,

01:02:41.740 doesn't have to

01:02:42.180 be fillers,

01:02:42.760 yeah, it

01:02:42.980 could be that.

01:02:44.080 But he

01:02:45.240 also might be

01:02:46.060 aging backwards.

01:02:47.240 We cannot

01:02:47.840 eliminate that

01:02:49.700 possibility.

01:02:51.140 All right,

01:02:51.420 ladies and

01:02:51.840 gentlemen, I

01:02:53.160 believe I've

01:02:53.620 delivered the

01:02:54.760 best entertainment

01:02:55.560 that you didn't

01:02:56.960 pay for,

01:02:58.660 although some

01:03:00.300 of you did.

01:03:02.040 And I'm

01:03:05.760 pretty sure we've

01:03:06.560 solved almost

01:03:07.880 all of the

01:03:08.340 problems.

01:03:08.800 If there's

01:03:09.980 anything I

01:03:10.420 missed, let

01:03:11.300 me know.

01:03:12.140 I'm going to

01:03:12.480 be working on

01:03:13.400 a micro lesson

01:03:14.220 on how to

01:03:14.920 deliver a

01:03:16.260 compliment without

01:03:17.480 sounding creepy.

01:03:19.560 So only the

01:03:20.560 subscribers on

01:03:21.600 Locals will see

01:03:22.560 that, along with

01:03:24.220 the 200 plus

01:03:25.180 other micro

01:03:26.120 lessons that

01:03:26.680 will change

01:03:27.180 your life.

01:03:28.300 By the way,

01:03:28.740 if you learn to

01:03:29.460 give a sincere

01:03:31.400 compliment that

01:03:32.480 doesn't sound

01:03:33.180 weird, it's a

01:03:35.160 really powerful

01:03:35.860 power.

01:03:36.280 It's a

01:03:37.320 powerful power.

01:03:39.180 That's the

01:03:39.700 best kind of

01:03:40.100 power to have,

01:03:41.160 the powerful

01:03:41.620 kind.

01:03:42.720 I'm still

01:03:43.080 working on my

01:03:43.600 book?

01:03:43.900 Yes, I am.

01:03:45.200 So mostly I'm

01:03:46.260 at the phase of

01:03:47.340 compiling what

01:03:49.580 each of the

01:03:50.940 chapters will be,

01:03:52.540 and then

01:03:53.300 mostly over the

01:03:54.740 summer I'm

01:03:55.560 going to be

01:03:55.860 pounding out the

01:03:56.540 chapters, I

01:03:57.080 think.

01:03:59.220 That's right,

01:03:59.840 the micro

01:04:00.160 lessons are worth

01:04:00.800 the cost alone.

01:04:01.520 effective way to

01:04:03.760 fix social

01:04:04.720 anxieties, the

01:04:07.920 Dale Carnegie

01:04:08.580 course.

01:04:09.740 Yeah, Dale

01:04:11.380 Carnegie teaches

01:04:12.840 you how to

01:04:13.940 talk to

01:04:14.680 strangers.

01:04:16.160 Now you have

01:04:16.500 to get the

01:04:16.840 right course,

01:04:17.520 they have a

01:04:18.060 number of

01:04:18.460 courses, so

01:04:19.000 you have to

01:04:19.360 ask which

01:04:19.760 one it is,

01:04:20.380 they change

01:04:20.760 the titles.

01:04:22.220 But, oh

01:04:23.220 somebody says

01:04:23.680 Toastmasters

01:04:24.380 too, yeah.

01:04:25.240 So basically

01:04:25.880 the way you

01:04:27.460 can fix social

01:04:28.700 anxiety is by

01:04:30.740 training.

01:04:32.280 So it turns

01:04:32.720 out it's a

01:04:33.940 learnable skill,

01:04:34.960 far more

01:04:35.520 learnable than

01:04:36.240 a lot of

01:04:36.620 things.

01:04:37.820 There are

01:04:38.440 lots of

01:04:38.800 things that

01:04:39.180 you can't

01:04:40.000 really change

01:04:40.580 about yourself,

01:04:41.880 but your

01:04:42.920 skill at

01:04:44.100 dealing with

01:04:44.860 complete strangers

01:04:45.880 and talking to

01:04:46.700 them and stuff

01:04:47.360 like that,

01:04:47.980 that is

01:04:48.420 completely

01:04:48.920 skill-based.

01:04:50.920 You think

01:04:51.640 it's not,

01:04:52.120 but it is.

01:04:53.340 All right,

01:04:53.960 I need to

01:04:54.880 go, and

01:04:56.460 I will talk

01:04:57.160 to you

01:04:57.560 later.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 21, 2022

Episode 1689 Scott Adams： How Trump Would Solve the Ukraine Situation, A Talent Stack Lesson

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