Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 26, 2022


Episode 1694 Scott Adams： All The News About Russian Generals, Vaccination Safety, Movies Are Dying


Episode Stats

Length

56 minutes

Words per Minute

149.91557

Word Count

8,434

Sentence Count

681

Misogynist Sentences

6

Hate Speech Sentences

22


Summary

Every time I learn to play the drums, something bad happens to them. Like, a drummer dies on stage. Or, a rock musician dies in the middle of a rock concert. And it's not because of drugs or something else, it's because of something else.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, congratulations and welcome to another amazing, amazing day.
00:00:12.000 Did you know that if I tell you you're going to have a good day, it actually makes it better?
00:00:16.060 No, it's true.
00:00:17.080 If I simply tell you today will be a good day, it will bias you.
00:00:20.760 And your confirmation bias will kick in.
00:00:23.220 And so, as the official hypnotist of live streaming,
00:00:27.180 I'm going to snap my fingers and tell you to have a good day today.
00:00:31.600 Have a good day.
00:00:34.460 Watch how many people are going to have a better day today.
00:00:38.120 It's amazing.
00:00:39.060 Now, suppose you'd like to take it up a level and you'd like to really enjoy the day,
00:00:44.120 really dig in, really give some traction.
00:00:46.260 All you need is a copper mug or a glass of tank of Chelsea's time,
00:00:48.840 a canteen jargon flask, a vessel of Vinicott,
00:00:51.280 filled with your favorite liquid.
00:00:54.400 I like coffee.
00:00:55.180 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.
00:00:58.340 It's the dopamine hit of the day.
00:00:59.980 Everybody's talking about it.
00:01:01.040 It's the simultaneous sip,
00:01:02.460 and it's going to make all of you sexier, smarter, and more capable.
00:01:06.300 Go.
00:01:11.300 Hold on, hold on, everybody.
00:01:12.940 Hold on.
00:01:14.200 Ben isn't ready.
00:01:16.240 Everybody?
00:01:17.160 We're all in this together.
00:01:19.440 I just got an emergency message on YouTube from Ben.
00:01:22.680 Wasn't quite prepared.
00:01:23.720 Everybody, hold on.
00:01:25.800 Ben?
00:01:27.180 Ben, are you ready?
00:01:29.180 I think he's ready.
00:01:30.840 Go.
00:01:34.820 All right.
00:01:35.600 Now, if you didn't make it that time, Ben,
00:01:38.700 it just wasn't there for you.
00:01:42.300 Well, did anybody join me last night in the man cave?
00:01:49.420 I did an unscheduled live stream in the man cave in which I decided that my thing is going to be telling you stories.
00:01:56.200 Because it turns out I've accumulated a vast amount of weird, interesting stories.
00:02:04.420 And so I was trying them out last night on my local subscription platform.
00:02:10.120 And I think those might have been available to other people.
00:02:14.380 I can't remember what setting I hid.
00:02:17.320 But that's going to be my thing.
00:02:18.760 I'll do some more man cave live streams.
00:02:22.280 Well, in the weird simulation-like tragedy, as you know, I've been learning to play the drums in recent years.
00:02:32.120 So it's sort of my main hobby is learning to play the drums.
00:02:36.360 And so part of that process and that journey, you end up following great drummers because you want to see how the great ones do it.
00:02:43.840 And so I feel like every time I find a great drummer, something bad happens to them.
00:02:50.200 So I started out, you know, looking at Ginger Baker from the old group, The Cream.
00:02:57.500 But he's dead.
00:02:58.680 So I was like, oh, wouldn't it be cool to follow somebody who's alive?
00:03:02.360 And so I was looking at Neil Peart.
00:03:05.360 And he died.
00:03:07.640 And then I started getting interested in the drummer for the Foo Fighters, Taylor Hawkins.
00:03:13.140 He died last night at age 50.
00:03:16.480 I don't think any of this is my fault.
00:03:20.900 John Bonham, deceased.
00:03:23.940 Yeah, so basically Ringo Starr is all we have left at this point.
00:03:29.080 Charlie Watts, exactly.
00:03:31.040 Charlie Watts was literally who I was copying when he died.
00:03:36.620 I was actually playing his videos and like, oh, he's got...
00:03:39.520 He had a simpler style that was designed for being danceable.
00:03:44.920 So that was Charlie Watts.
00:03:46.040 It just has to be danceable.
00:03:47.280 Everything else doesn't matter.
00:03:48.420 So how weird is this?
00:03:53.680 Every time I love a drummer, they die.
00:03:55.500 Now, the story is that he was about to...
00:03:58.460 He was a few hours from going on stage in Columbia, I believe.
00:04:01.400 And he was age 50.
00:04:04.100 He looked perfectly healthy.
00:04:06.320 I mean, if you looked at him, he looked...
00:04:08.640 He didn't look 50, first of all.
00:04:11.720 Did you know he was 50?
00:04:13.140 I mean, he looked 40.
00:04:14.880 So he didn't look like he was going to die at all.
00:04:17.900 But he died at age 50, and no cause of death was given.
00:04:23.520 No cause of death.
00:04:24.780 He's in Columbia.
00:04:26.720 He was 50.
00:04:26.780 He was 50.
00:04:30.440 He was 50.
00:04:30.880 He was before a rock concert.
00:04:34.940 He'd be maybe preparing for the rock concert.
00:04:37.640 You know, I really feel like when they don't tell you the cause of death,
00:04:46.420 you kind of know the cause of death, don't you?
00:04:48.780 I mean, I don't want to throw this guy into the bus,
00:04:51.600 because I actually respected him quite a bit as a performer.
00:04:56.080 So I liked him a lot.
00:04:57.340 So I don't want to make up some crappy rumors about the guy that's not true.
00:05:01.260 We'll wait to see what happens.
00:05:02.700 So I don't want to predict.
00:05:08.880 Oh, yes, I do.
00:05:10.980 Yes, I do.
00:05:12.460 It's probably drugs and probably fentanyl.
00:05:15.640 Now, what's it going to take?
00:05:19.120 What's it going to take?
00:05:20.380 Now, I'm not going to assume that I'm right there.
00:05:22.600 So if it turns out that it's not fentanyl,
00:05:25.340 I have an apology to give,
00:05:27.500 and I will definitely be giving it.
00:05:28.940 All right, so if tomorrow you find out he had a heart problem or something,
00:05:34.640 I will be apologizing profusely.
00:05:37.360 But I am concerned that this looks obviously...
00:05:41.860 Oh, Stuart Copeland is still alive.
00:05:43.800 You're right.
00:05:45.240 This looks exactly like what it looks like.
00:05:47.960 And I hope it isn't.
00:05:49.380 I really hope it isn't.
00:05:51.580 But if it is,
00:05:53.360 we might be closer to taking it seriously.
00:05:56.400 Well, is there any story that starts with the three words
00:06:01.180 a Florida man that is not entertaining?
00:06:05.200 I should do a survey on that.
00:06:07.160 Have you ever seen a story
00:06:08.420 that started with the three words
00:06:10.620 a Florida man,
00:06:12.280 and then you found yourself saying,
00:06:14.420 well, that's not going to be interesting?
00:06:16.840 Well, here's the story today.
00:06:18.260 I think it was in CNN.
00:06:19.400 A Florida man
00:06:21.680 has died after crashing his car
00:06:25.020 into an 11-foot alligator.
00:06:30.280 And then they reported
00:06:31.460 that both the driver
00:06:33.040 and the alligator were deceased.
00:06:37.260 I kind of wonder
00:06:38.260 why there are not more alligator fatalities.
00:06:42.860 You know,
00:06:43.480 the only times I've been in Florida,
00:06:45.180 I feel like I always see an alligator by the road.
00:06:49.800 Am I wrong?
00:06:51.280 If you're driving around in Florida,
00:06:53.080 don't you,
00:06:54.000 you always see alligators by the road.
00:06:56.440 How in the world
00:06:57.160 are there not continuous vehicle deaths
00:07:00.780 based on alligators?
00:07:04.560 I don't know.
00:07:05.180 The thing that surprised me
00:07:06.340 is that we don't hear it every day.
00:07:07.380 Well, here's a story
00:07:11.440 about Bill Maher's bubble.
00:07:14.180 Here's something that he said,
00:07:15.600 Bill Maher said on the show,
00:07:16.880 Friday, I guess.
00:07:18.240 He said,
00:07:18.700 I think that today's Republicans
00:07:20.000 would not do that.
00:07:21.900 I think that they would be thrilled
00:07:23.080 to have no black seats on the court
00:07:25.340 talking about the Supreme Court.
00:07:28.340 And then he clarified,
00:07:29.640 you know,
00:07:29.860 okay, maybe a few.
00:07:32.280 Well,
00:07:32.900 you know,
00:07:33.160 he said,
00:07:33.500 okay,
00:07:34.060 a lot of them.
00:07:35.000 So he wasn't saying
00:07:36.000 every single Republican.
00:07:40.380 But I would like to add
00:07:41.700 the following
00:07:42.440 to his bubble.
00:07:45.120 Here's something
00:07:45.800 that Bill Maher
00:07:46.900 really, really doesn't understand.
00:07:49.660 And I want to see
00:07:50.620 if you all understand it
00:07:51.900 or disagree with me.
00:07:53.840 You know,
00:07:54.040 you're free to disagree.
00:07:56.160 I'm going to tell you
00:07:57.240 a story of two people talking
00:07:59.080 and how it goes.
00:08:02.220 And you tell me,
00:08:03.120 this is,
00:08:03.660 I'm just making this up.
00:08:05.180 But you tell me
00:08:05.780 this isn't how it goes.
00:08:08.040 There's a white conservative guy
00:08:10.220 gets into conversation
00:08:11.840 with a black man
00:08:13.460 and he doesn't know
00:08:14.940 if the black guy
00:08:15.640 is conservative or what.
00:08:18.180 And maybe they get
00:08:19.160 into a little disagreement
00:08:20.000 about something
00:08:20.640 and then the black guy says,
00:08:21.940 well,
00:08:22.060 I just want to clarify.
00:08:23.700 I'm a conservative.
00:08:25.680 And the white guy says,
00:08:26.760 what?
00:08:27.180 Oh,
00:08:27.700 odds were against that.
00:08:29.500 And then the guy says,
00:08:30.420 yeah,
00:08:30.660 I'm totally conservative.
00:08:31.840 Church going.
00:08:33.000 Love my constitution.
00:08:34.060 I think everybody
00:08:35.540 should earn their own way
00:08:36.980 and race should not be
00:08:38.140 part of any decisions
00:08:39.280 in this country.
00:08:41.040 And then what does
00:08:41.780 the white guy say?
00:08:42.900 He's a white conservative.
00:08:44.660 Does he say,
00:08:45.480 in his mind,
00:08:46.320 does he say,
00:08:47.720 you know,
00:08:48.420 but,
00:08:49.040 yeah,
00:08:49.400 you do agree with me
00:08:50.420 on all the things
00:08:51.080 that I find most dear,
00:08:53.080 but,
00:08:53.400 you know,
00:08:53.780 you're still black.
00:08:55.740 So,
00:08:56.380 is that what happens?
00:08:58.000 Is that what happens?
00:08:59.600 Does the white guy,
00:09:00.540 the white conservative,
00:09:01.280 the Republicans say,
00:09:03.080 oh,
00:09:03.380 you know,
00:09:03.720 you do agree with me
00:09:04.540 on all the important stuff,
00:09:06.180 but,
00:09:06.520 you know,
00:09:06.720 you're still black.
00:09:07.660 So,
00:09:08.740 so,
00:09:09.820 no.
00:09:12.220 I don't think
00:09:13.340 in the history of the world
00:09:14.220 that's ever happened.
00:09:15.500 Let me tell you
00:09:16.080 how that goes.
00:09:17.760 Oh,
00:09:18.260 you probably don't know,
00:09:19.160 but I'm actually
00:09:19.860 a conservative.
00:09:21.220 And then the white conservative
00:09:22.120 says,
00:09:22.540 what?
00:09:23.380 Yeah,
00:09:23.740 right down the line.
00:09:25.080 Constitution,
00:09:25.860 Bible,
00:09:26.360 family,
00:09:27.360 whole deal.
00:09:27.880 And then the white conservative
00:09:30.320 says,
00:09:31.480 huh,
00:09:32.860 are you free for lunch?
00:09:34.560 Let's do lunch.
00:09:36.540 You know that's the fucking
00:09:38.020 way it goes,
00:09:39.080 right?
00:09:39.660 Why does Bill Maher
00:09:40.720 not know that?
00:09:42.380 Am I right?
00:09:43.660 I'm literally right.
00:09:45.840 If,
00:09:46.300 if the conservative
00:09:47.780 finds somebody
00:09:48.520 who agrees
00:09:49.440 with the philosophy,
00:09:51.660 they're 100% okay.
00:09:54.200 Not 99.
00:09:56.160 Not 99%.
00:09:56.880 99%.
00:09:57.760 They're 100%
00:09:59.500 okay.
00:10:01.240 No exception.
00:10:03.620 That's my opinion,
00:10:04.760 and I've never seen
00:10:05.380 an exception to it.
00:10:07.260 Now,
00:10:07.940 I tell you often
00:10:08.900 that I'm not conservative,
00:10:10.300 because I'm not.
00:10:11.740 But,
00:10:12.540 I definitely appreciate
00:10:14.300 that about conservatives.
00:10:16.580 There is a consistency there
00:10:18.420 that's impressive.
00:10:20.940 Right?
00:10:21.640 It's that consistency
00:10:22.980 that draws me
00:10:24.900 to conservatives
00:10:25.680 and Republicans.
00:10:27.720 You know,
00:10:28.000 they,
00:10:28.540 I'm not going to be
00:10:29.500 the guy who tells you
00:10:30.240 that the Republicans
00:10:31.240 don't have a lot
00:10:31.980 of conspiracy theories
00:10:33.180 running around
00:10:33.880 in their brains,
00:10:34.700 because they do.
00:10:35.860 They do.
00:10:36.760 So does,
00:10:37.200 so does everybody.
00:10:38.360 Just different ones.
00:10:39.620 So it's not about that.
00:10:41.100 It's not about
00:10:41.780 the conservatives
00:10:42.420 are always right
00:10:43.240 and,
00:10:43.720 you know,
00:10:44.820 the Democrats
00:10:45.420 are always wrong.
00:10:46.160 I don't really see that.
00:10:46.980 What I see
00:10:49.260 is a group
00:10:50.000 that has a consistent
00:10:51.080 workable system
00:10:52.240 that they respect
00:10:53.820 and they're,
00:10:55.280 they're quite consistent
00:10:56.400 about it.
00:10:57.580 I love that.
00:10:59.140 I love that.
00:11:00.220 even when it gives me
00:11:01.500 a result
00:11:02.000 that's not exactly
00:11:02.800 my preference.
00:11:03.960 But I love the system
00:11:04.860 and I love,
00:11:05.680 I love the people
00:11:06.740 who buy into that system.
00:11:07.960 It's not like I dislike
00:11:08.780 the other people,
00:11:09.540 but there,
00:11:10.380 there's much to respect
00:11:11.440 about people
00:11:13.140 who take seriously
00:11:14.260 their own philosophy.
00:11:15.140 And I do think
00:11:16.880 conservatives
00:11:17.360 take seriously
00:11:18.220 their own philosophy.
00:11:20.240 All right.
00:11:21.220 I've been telling you
00:11:22.060 for a while
00:11:22.380 that I think movies
00:11:23.400 are a dead art form
00:11:24.920 for a variety of reasons.
00:11:26.220 The biggest one
00:11:26.940 is that our attention
00:11:27.940 spans have declined.
00:11:30.120 Watching a two
00:11:31.120 or three hour movie
00:11:31.920 just sounds like
00:11:32.500 torture to me.
00:11:33.720 I can't imagine
00:11:34.500 how anybody
00:11:34.960 does it anymore.
00:11:36.300 But beyond that,
00:11:37.260 the movies themselves
00:11:38.020 are complete crap.
00:11:40.300 There must have been
00:11:41.320 a time in our world
00:11:43.240 where we were not
00:11:44.160 exposed to so much
00:11:45.340 ugliness
00:11:45.920 that we could watch
00:11:47.480 it for entertainment.
00:11:50.700 And I don't know
00:11:51.500 if this is what
00:11:52.040 happened to me.
00:11:52.780 It feels like it.
00:11:53.920 Maybe it happened
00:11:54.560 to you too.
00:11:55.720 I suppose in my childhood
00:11:57.360 I just was not exposed
00:11:59.780 to as many negative things,
00:12:01.720 maybe because no internet
00:12:02.700 or whatever.
00:12:04.000 TV was all,
00:12:05.060 you know,
00:12:05.700 sanitized.
00:12:06.940 So if I went to a movie
00:12:08.380 and the movie showed
00:12:09.320 some like horrible thing
00:12:10.360 happening to somebody,
00:12:12.020 it would be so
00:12:13.560 out of the usual,
00:12:14.900 out of the normal
00:12:15.640 for my experience,
00:12:16.800 I'd be interested in it
00:12:18.020 even if it's horrible
00:12:18.760 because unfortunately
00:12:20.580 that's the way brains work.
00:12:22.320 But now we live
00:12:23.440 in a world in which
00:12:24.280 we are inundated
00:12:25.160 with real world
00:12:26.400 disaster scenarios.
00:12:29.080 We're all going to die
00:12:30.180 from the bio labs
00:12:31.360 and the inflation
00:12:32.080 and the food shortages
00:12:33.300 and Russia's going to attack
00:12:35.140 and it's a nuclear war
00:12:36.360 and everything.
00:12:37.400 And my capacity
00:12:38.740 to handle ugliness
00:12:40.180 is always
00:12:41.620 completely full
00:12:43.040 so that any extra bit
00:12:45.660 of ugliness
00:12:46.360 that's added
00:12:46.920 it just makes me
00:12:47.800 flip out, right?
00:12:51.280 Everybody's the same.
00:12:52.560 There's a limit
00:12:53.380 that you can take
00:12:54.060 and then there's
00:12:54.580 over the limit.
00:12:55.920 And to me,
00:12:57.220 paying money
00:12:58.040 to go across town,
00:13:00.360 let's say you're
00:13:00.820 watching it in person,
00:13:02.960 and sit in an
00:13:04.160 uncomfortable seat
00:13:05.160 and watch three hours
00:13:07.460 of something
00:13:08.000 that is designed
00:13:09.100 to make you
00:13:09.900 feel uncomfortable.
00:13:11.900 It's made that way.
00:13:13.500 That's not an accident,
00:13:14.440 that's the feature.
00:13:15.680 The feature of a movie
00:13:16.900 is to make you
00:13:17.600 feel really bad
00:13:18.720 so that when
00:13:19.940 the end of the movie
00:13:20.660 comes they can
00:13:21.440 relieve that.
00:13:22.320 It's like an itch
00:13:23.060 and a scratch.
00:13:24.380 So first they make you
00:13:25.360 itch really badly
00:13:26.140 and then if you
00:13:28.160 can sit through
00:13:28.820 all three hours
00:13:29.500 they'll give you
00:13:30.200 a little scratch
00:13:30.880 and that's your payoff.
00:13:32.960 Who does that?
00:13:35.180 Why?
00:13:35.540 Why would you
00:13:37.360 go to a movie?
00:13:39.020 It makes no sense
00:13:40.240 because you have
00:13:42.100 infinite alternative
00:13:43.900 entertainment
00:13:45.180 on the internet.
00:13:46.400 You can go
00:13:47.020 into YouTube
00:13:47.480 and have
00:13:48.180 50 cool
00:13:50.240 short experiences
00:13:51.280 that are just
00:13:51.880 what you wanted
00:13:52.540 with nobody
00:13:53.520 tied to a chair
00:13:54.300 to be tortured
00:13:54.880 for information.
00:13:57.800 By the way,
00:13:58.860 there's a standard
00:13:59.720 that I use
00:14:00.400 that I would
00:14:00.800 recommend to all
00:14:02.080 of you.
00:14:02.900 It might make
00:14:03.620 movies better.
00:14:04.400 It goes like
00:14:05.540 this.
00:14:06.560 As soon as
00:14:07.280 the movie
00:14:07.740 involves somebody
00:14:09.040 tied to a chair
00:14:10.140 turn it off.
00:14:13.100 Turn it off.
00:14:14.780 That's it.
00:14:15.540 Because as soon
00:14:16.260 as you see
00:14:16.620 somebody tied
00:14:17.140 to a chair
00:14:17.640 you know
00:14:18.040 this isn't
00:14:18.500 a good movie.
00:14:20.380 This is a movie
00:14:21.220 designed to make
00:14:21.920 you feel bad
00:14:22.500 and then you
00:14:23.980 got suckered
00:14:24.540 into going
00:14:25.400 to it.
00:14:26.060 Yeah.
00:14:26.840 Right.
00:14:27.360 As soon as
00:14:27.920 you see the chair
00:14:28.600 even before
00:14:30.480 they're tied
00:14:30.880 to it
00:14:31.220 you know
00:14:31.740 they're going
00:14:32.000 to get tied
00:14:32.380 to the chair
00:14:32.800 turn it off.
00:14:34.400 There's nothing
00:14:34.920 good there.
00:14:36.220 Here's another
00:14:36.940 little tip
00:14:37.580 for watching
00:14:38.560 comedies.
00:14:41.120 If you want
00:14:41.860 to know
00:14:42.120 whether a comedy
00:14:42.980 let's say
00:14:43.380 a sitcom
00:14:43.920 on TV
00:14:44.420 is worth
00:14:45.420 watching to
00:14:45.980 the end
00:14:46.400 see how long
00:14:48.760 it takes them
00:14:49.300 to make a
00:14:49.860 food joke.
00:14:51.680 Now this is
00:14:52.520 real insider
00:14:53.360 humorist
00:14:54.320 stuff here.
00:14:56.440 Bad writers
00:14:57.320 make food jokes.
00:14:58.620 Do you know
00:14:58.920 why?
00:14:59.180 Because when
00:15:01.260 they're writing
00:15:01.780 they're eating.
00:15:06.640 And a bad
00:15:07.780 writer does
00:15:08.340 this.
00:15:09.700 Blank page.
00:15:13.120 What am I
00:15:13.780 going to write
00:15:14.040 about?
00:15:15.700 Eating my
00:15:16.420 donut.
00:15:17.280 Got to come
00:15:18.060 up with an
00:15:18.420 idea.
00:15:20.560 Hey
00:15:20.960 what about
00:15:22.200 something about
00:15:22.660 food?
00:15:23.080 Now
00:15:25.100 it is
00:15:27.320 impossible
00:15:27.860 to make
00:15:28.620 a funny
00:15:29.040 food joke.
00:15:30.540 I actually
00:15:31.160 write about
00:15:31.620 this very
00:15:32.040 thing.
00:15:32.800 You can do
00:15:33.260 jokes about
00:15:33.720 people and
00:15:35.100 about how
00:15:35.460 people feel
00:15:36.000 and maybe
00:15:36.380 you can do
00:15:36.820 a joke about
00:15:37.340 how somebody
00:15:37.840 feels about
00:15:38.940 food.
00:15:39.680 But you can't
00:15:40.220 really make a
00:15:40.740 joke about
00:15:41.120 the food.
00:15:42.540 And if you
00:15:42.960 see somebody
00:15:43.360 making a
00:15:43.860 food joke
00:15:44.820 like
00:15:46.000 love those
00:15:46.920 donuts
00:15:47.320 in Jim
00:15:49.420 Gaffigan.
00:15:50.380 Jim Gaffigan's
00:15:51.420 jokes are
00:15:51.840 really about
00:15:52.280 himself.
00:15:54.200 So that's a
00:15:55.200 little bit of
00:15:55.540 a trick.
00:15:56.620 Yeah, Jim
00:15:57.000 Gaffigan can
00:15:57.800 do hot
00:15:58.700 pocket jokes
00:15:59.480 because it's
00:16:00.740 not really
00:16:01.080 about the
00:16:01.420 food.
00:16:02.520 It's about
00:16:03.200 his reaction
00:16:03.980 to food.
00:16:04.620 That's the
00:16:04.900 only thing
00:16:05.220 that makes
00:16:05.520 it funny.
00:16:08.060 So if you
00:16:08.860 see jokes
00:16:09.300 that are
00:16:09.560 about the
00:16:09.940 food and
00:16:10.560 not the
00:16:10.880 person's
00:16:11.380 response to
00:16:11.900 the food,
00:16:12.260 that's a
00:16:12.520 bad writer.
00:16:13.580 Turn it
00:16:13.920 off.
00:16:15.260 All right,
00:16:15.820 I tweeted
00:16:16.220 this and
00:16:16.760 then I
00:16:17.180 caused an
00:16:17.820 accidental
00:16:18.420 controversy.
00:16:19.900 Here's my
00:16:20.500 tweet.
00:16:22.140 No system
00:16:23.180 can survive
00:16:23.940 the addition
00:16:24.440 of one
00:16:25.080 person to
00:16:25.700 the situation.
00:16:27.840 No
00:16:28.320 personal
00:16:28.800 system for
00:16:29.420 success
00:16:30.040 can survive
00:16:31.900 adding one
00:16:32.700 person to
00:16:33.200 the process.
00:16:34.460 And a
00:16:35.120 lot of
00:16:35.320 people said,
00:16:35.800 oh, you're
00:16:36.380 publicly
00:16:37.420 complaining about
00:16:38.380 your divorce.
00:16:39.380 No, it's
00:16:40.080 not about
00:16:40.400 that.
00:16:40.820 It's actually
00:16:41.320 literally just
00:16:41.960 about systems.
00:16:43.340 So it's
00:16:43.780 not about
00:16:44.140 me personally.
00:16:45.400 It's something
00:16:46.080 I've been
00:16:46.400 noticing.
00:16:46.720 Here's a
00:16:47.920 specific
00:16:48.300 example.
00:16:49.700 Now, if
00:16:50.140 you think
00:16:50.480 this example
00:16:51.060 is unique
00:16:51.720 and maybe
00:16:52.880 an example
00:16:53.360 of the
00:16:53.700 exception,
00:16:54.800 the whole
00:16:55.520 point is
00:16:56.180 that this
00:16:56.480 happens over
00:16:57.020 and over
00:16:57.300 and over
00:16:57.580 again.
00:16:58.500 So what
00:16:58.840 sounds like
00:16:59.480 an exception,
00:17:00.520 trust me,
00:17:01.060 you can
00:17:01.420 generalize
00:17:01.960 this a
00:17:03.040 lot.
00:17:04.460 So I
00:17:05.200 have a
00:17:05.500 system of
00:17:06.780 rewarding
00:17:07.360 myself for
00:17:08.120 work, so
00:17:09.300 I don't
00:17:09.560 mind the
00:17:09.880 work as
00:17:10.220 much, just
00:17:10.780 like a
00:17:11.060 dog.
00:17:11.820 If I do
00:17:12.340 my work, I
00:17:12.940 get a
00:17:13.180 treat.
00:17:13.400 Now, the
00:17:14.420 treat that
00:17:14.800 I give
00:17:15.040 myself is
00:17:15.700 a raisin
00:17:18.420 bagel with
00:17:20.160 coffee in
00:17:20.940 the morning.
00:17:21.940 It's just
00:17:22.540 about my
00:17:23.000 favorite thing
00:17:24.080 to do, to
00:17:25.260 have a nice
00:17:25.660 bagel.
00:17:26.720 You know, you
00:17:27.060 have to wait
00:17:27.520 for it in the
00:17:28.440 toaster, it's
00:17:29.280 piping hot, and
00:17:31.060 there's something
00:17:31.820 about the
00:17:32.240 process of
00:17:32.960 making it that's
00:17:33.600 kind of pleasant,
00:17:34.700 and all of this
00:17:35.560 I treat as a
00:17:36.560 reward.
00:17:37.020 So it's
00:17:38.700 working for
00:17:39.620 years and
00:17:40.900 years and
00:17:41.180 years, my
00:17:42.400 reward.
00:17:44.120 Now, I
00:17:46.400 improved my
00:17:47.480 system.
00:17:48.840 In the
00:17:49.240 morning, I
00:17:49.680 would order
00:17:50.140 fresh bagels
00:17:50.920 every three
00:17:51.640 days or so,
00:17:52.480 because you
00:17:52.740 can eat
00:17:53.740 them for a
00:17:54.380 few days
00:17:54.720 before they
00:17:55.120 get stale.
00:17:56.220 So about
00:17:57.040 every three
00:17:57.380 days, I'll
00:17:57.820 order fresh
00:17:58.280 bagels in
00:17:58.720 the morning,
00:17:59.540 and they
00:17:59.920 get delivered
00:18:00.400 to the
00:18:00.680 door.
00:18:01.740 And a
00:18:02.700 member of
00:18:03.080 my household,
00:18:03.880 I'm going
00:18:04.200 to speak
00:18:04.440 very generically
00:18:05.220 now, just
00:18:05.740 for privacy
00:18:06.320 purposes,
00:18:07.020 but I
00:18:07.640 have several
00:18:08.340 members of
00:18:08.860 my household.
00:18:10.640 And one
00:18:11.560 member of the
00:18:11.960 household said,
00:18:13.560 hey, bagels,
00:18:14.860 can you get
00:18:15.580 me some
00:18:16.280 blueberry bagels,
00:18:18.480 because I
00:18:18.780 really like
00:18:19.280 blueberry bagels.
00:18:20.860 Not really
00:18:21.480 like any other
00:18:22.120 kind, but really
00:18:22.900 like the
00:18:23.320 blueberry bagels.
00:18:25.060 And so, I
00:18:26.400 took my
00:18:26.900 system of
00:18:28.140 ordering raisin
00:18:29.660 bagels on a
00:18:31.100 regular basis,
00:18:31.700 which are
00:18:32.000 awesome, and
00:18:33.300 I added to
00:18:33.820 that the
00:18:34.480 blueberry bagels,
00:18:35.900 so they come
00:18:36.960 in the same
00:18:37.280 order.
00:18:38.740 Now, here's
00:18:39.600 what I
00:18:39.800 didn't count
00:18:40.260 on.
00:18:41.380 A blueberry
00:18:42.000 bagel and
00:18:43.000 a raisin
00:18:43.440 bagel look
00:18:44.740 exactly the
00:18:45.580 same to
00:18:46.580 idiots.
00:18:47.860 In this
00:18:48.480 case, I
00:18:48.960 would be
00:18:49.200 the idiot.
00:18:50.580 Now, I
00:18:50.940 know what
00:18:51.140 you're saying.
00:18:52.280 Scott, I
00:18:53.000 could pretty
00:18:53.420 much easily
00:18:54.000 tell the
00:18:54.420 difference between
00:18:55.020 a blueberry
00:18:55.520 bagel and a
00:18:56.280 raisin bagel.
00:18:57.220 You just have
00:18:57.800 to sniff them,
00:18:59.120 to which I
00:18:59.840 say I do
00:19:00.480 not have a
00:19:02.440 sense of
00:19:02.820 smell.
00:19:03.060 I have to
00:19:04.340 rely on
00:19:04.840 visual.
00:19:06.220 Visually, they
00:19:07.020 look about the
00:19:07.760 same until you
00:19:08.460 cut them open,
00:19:09.680 and then you
00:19:10.100 realize you
00:19:10.520 got the wrong
00:19:10.960 one.
00:19:11.420 Now, they
00:19:11.720 come in a
00:19:12.100 big box.
00:19:13.320 They're all
00:19:13.580 mixed up.
00:19:15.580 So, every
00:19:16.480 morning, my
00:19:18.180 system, which
00:19:19.160 used to be
00:19:19.660 treated as a
00:19:20.360 reward, where
00:19:21.880 I just, oh, I
00:19:22.980 love that
00:19:23.460 raisin bagel,
00:19:24.660 has now been
00:19:25.360 transformed by
00:19:26.780 the addition of
00:19:27.540 one extra
00:19:28.300 person into the
00:19:29.720 situation.
00:19:31.160 Now, every
00:19:32.420 morning, I go
00:19:33.160 and I look at
00:19:33.940 the bag of
00:19:34.380 bagels, and I
00:19:35.380 say to myself,
00:19:36.920 God fucking
00:19:37.880 damn it, I'm
00:19:39.100 not going to be
00:19:39.540 able to know
00:19:39.940 which one is
00:19:40.440 the right bagel.
00:19:41.140 I'm going to
00:19:41.440 waste my
00:19:41.900 fucking time
00:19:42.740 toasting this
00:19:43.780 bagel.
00:19:44.280 I'm going to
00:19:44.640 be done with
00:19:45.160 it.
00:19:45.260 I'm going to
00:19:45.480 put it in my
00:19:45.920 mouth, and
00:19:46.600 I'm going to
00:19:47.020 say, fuck,
00:19:47.940 fuck, fuck.
00:19:48.940 Once again, I
00:19:49.900 picked the
00:19:50.260 wrong bagel.
00:19:52.320 And so, my
00:19:54.260 beautiful system
00:19:55.400 of rewarding
00:19:56.020 myself has
00:19:57.600 turned into a
00:19:58.420 bagel
00:19:58.960 hellscape
00:19:59.660 in which I
00:20:00.940 have not yet
00:20:01.560 figured out a
00:20:02.240 way to emerge.
00:20:04.020 I was thinking
00:20:04.880 I could do two
00:20:05.840 orders of
00:20:06.360 bagels, one of
00:20:07.860 just raisin and
00:20:09.200 one of just
00:20:09.960 blueberry, but it
00:20:11.580 literally doubles
00:20:12.360 my work.
00:20:14.080 I don't want to
00:20:14.960 double my work.
00:20:16.420 That's not a
00:20:16.960 good system.
00:20:18.120 Yeah, two
00:20:18.600 orders?
00:20:19.460 Nope.
00:20:21.980 Now, I could
00:20:22.800 ask them, of
00:20:23.460 course, it's
00:20:23.820 DoorDash, I
00:20:24.400 could ask them
00:20:24.900 to put them in
00:20:25.360 separate bags, but
00:20:26.640 they won't.
00:20:27.780 If you've ever
00:20:28.340 tried to make a
00:20:29.040 special request
00:20:29.820 to DoorDash,
00:20:30.980 they don't
00:20:31.420 really read
00:20:31.920 those.
00:20:32.620 As far as I
00:20:33.240 can tell, they
00:20:33.660 don't read
00:20:34.020 them.
00:20:34.820 So, I don't
00:20:35.640 really know what
00:20:36.100 to do.
00:20:37.300 Now, is this
00:20:38.540 the biggest
00:20:38.860 problem in the
00:20:39.400 world?
00:20:39.680 No, this is
00:20:40.160 the ultimate
00:20:40.960 rich person's
00:20:42.420 problem.
00:20:43.380 However, watch
00:20:45.200 how well that
00:20:46.020 generalizes.
00:20:47.080 Let me give you
00:20:47.480 another example.
00:20:49.120 I created a
00:20:50.020 system where
00:20:50.560 downstairs, I
00:20:51.820 had one
00:20:53.360 drawer in the
00:20:54.700 kitchen that
00:20:55.380 was just for
00:20:55.980 things that I
00:20:56.740 always had to go
00:20:57.400 upstairs to get.
00:20:59.220 So, I kept
00:20:59.860 putting anything
00:21:00.360 important in that
00:21:01.140 drawer.
00:21:01.940 One of the
00:21:02.380 things I put in
00:21:02.960 there was my
00:21:03.460 wallet, because I
00:21:05.080 was always running
00:21:05.600 upstairs to get it if
00:21:06.540 I needed to leave
00:21:07.300 the house, or my
00:21:08.080 keys, you know, that
00:21:09.000 sort of stuff.
00:21:10.500 So, my ex-wife at
00:21:13.140 the time said, don't
00:21:15.660 keep a wallet down
00:21:16.420 there, somebody might
00:21:17.820 get at it.
00:21:18.860 Now, of course, I
00:21:19.640 had made that
00:21:20.640 conscious decision that
00:21:22.460 there was a little
00:21:22.900 extra risk, but the
00:21:24.540 convenience was worth
00:21:25.480 but when somebody
00:21:26.880 else tells you not
00:21:27.860 to do it, you're
00:21:28.300 like, ah, yeah, I'm
00:21:30.040 going to have to get
00:21:30.600 into this conversation
00:21:31.360 again.
00:21:31.740 So, I was like,
00:21:33.020 okay, I'll move the
00:21:34.440 wallet, but it'll
00:21:35.800 still be my drawer of
00:21:36.880 everything else.
00:21:38.200 Well, about that
00:21:40.300 point, my ex-wife
00:21:41.040 decided that that was
00:21:41.920 a good junk drawer.
00:21:43.740 And so, my well-
00:21:45.460 positioned drawer of
00:21:46.500 only the things that
00:21:47.500 were clearly visible
00:21:48.540 became a pile of
00:21:50.400 garbage that I had to
00:21:51.320 pile through every
00:21:52.640 time I wanted
00:21:53.240 anything.
00:21:53.720 And it was the
00:21:54.880 stuff I wanted most
00:21:55.720 often.
00:21:57.320 So, take those two
00:21:59.260 examples, and if
00:22:00.240 you're tempted to say,
00:22:01.200 Scott, that's just
00:22:01.900 about those two
00:22:03.180 people.
00:22:04.660 I mean, that's not
00:22:06.020 everybody.
00:22:06.940 You can't add just
00:22:08.280 everybody to a system
00:22:09.300 and it breaks.
00:22:10.380 No, I'm saying
00:22:11.340 everybody.
00:22:12.440 I'm saying it has
00:22:13.080 nothing to do with
00:22:13.800 the personalities of
00:22:14.680 the people involved.
00:22:15.760 It is a general rule
00:22:17.360 that as soon as you
00:22:18.680 add one person to
00:22:20.560 your system, it'll
00:22:21.260 break.
00:22:21.620 So, look for ways
00:22:23.720 to avoid adding
00:22:24.920 anybody to your
00:22:25.560 system, and just
00:22:26.620 be aware, the moment
00:22:27.600 you let that other
00:22:28.820 person in with their
00:22:30.220 little preferences,
00:22:31.740 they start getting in
00:22:32.540 your head, your whole
00:22:33.720 system is gone.
00:22:35.220 So, just remember that
00:22:36.100 when you're building
00:22:36.500 your systems.
00:22:38.420 Rasmussen says 66%
00:22:40.180 of the public thinks
00:22:41.560 the Hunter laptop
00:22:42.300 story is important.
00:22:44.420 Scott did a poll in
00:22:45.360 his head and found
00:22:46.120 out that 0% of people
00:22:47.720 will base their vote
00:22:49.160 on Hunter's laptop.
00:22:50.740 I don't think
00:22:52.600 anybody's going to
00:22:53.180 vote on that, do you?
00:22:54.700 They should.
00:22:56.160 I mean, it feels like
00:22:57.160 it's pretty darn
00:22:57.720 important, but I don't
00:23:00.500 think anybody will
00:23:01.240 because the
00:23:02.780 Republicans, we're all
00:23:03.740 going to vote
00:23:04.620 Republican, and the
00:23:05.680 Democrats, we're going
00:23:06.420 to vote Democrats.
00:23:07.700 So, I'm not sure
00:23:08.600 that's telling us
00:23:09.160 anything.
00:23:11.560 We have further
00:23:13.480 confirmation today
00:23:14.660 in a more meaningful
00:23:16.240 publication.
00:23:16.940 So, it's the UK's
00:23:19.060 daily mail.
00:23:19.800 You can insert your
00:23:21.480 own comments about
00:23:22.220 the credibility of
00:23:23.120 the media, and that
00:23:23.880 one in particular.
00:23:25.260 But, it is reporting
00:23:27.040 a lot of details
00:23:27.780 about a Ukrainian
00:23:29.140 biolab that was
00:23:30.560 funded in part by
00:23:32.220 Hunter Biden's
00:23:35.120 efforts.
00:23:37.300 So, he was part of
00:23:37.960 an investment group,
00:23:39.420 and he did get some
00:23:40.660 investments for at
00:23:41.480 least one biolab that
00:23:43.760 was involved in stuff
00:23:44.800 that at least could
00:23:45.880 have been weaponized.
00:23:47.320 Don't know exactly
00:23:48.100 what they were doing.
00:23:49.620 Now, I saw the
00:23:50.700 funniest tweet from a
00:23:53.680 Twitter user called
00:23:54.560 Nothing.
00:23:55.560 That's his handle,
00:23:56.460 Nothing.
00:23:57.500 He goes, I'm
00:23:58.900 genuinely a little
00:23:59.860 bit upset.
00:24:00.680 He's talking to me,
00:24:01.600 and he says, I'm
00:24:02.560 genuinely a little
00:24:03.380 bit upset that you
00:24:04.220 guessed the Hunter
00:24:04.900 Biden biolab thing.
00:24:09.160 He's genuinely upset
00:24:10.700 that I made that
00:24:11.400 prediction that it
00:24:12.120 was correct in 48
00:24:13.520 hours.
00:24:13.860 Now, is anybody
00:24:15.240 else impressed that
00:24:18.560 I made that
00:24:19.040 prediction, that
00:24:20.380 Hunter Biden would
00:24:21.200 be tied to the
00:24:21.840 biolabs?
00:24:23.160 Thank you.
00:24:24.280 You should be
00:24:24.980 impressed by that.
00:24:26.660 You know, there
00:24:27.200 aren't that many
00:24:27.760 things I do that
00:24:29.200 even I think you
00:24:30.060 should be impressed
00:24:30.640 by, but that one
00:24:31.380 you should be
00:24:31.760 impressed by.
00:24:33.100 I mean, that
00:24:33.500 was a frozen
00:24:36.740 rope home run over
00:24:38.360 the center field
00:24:39.020 fence.
00:24:39.820 I mean, there's no
00:24:40.340 way around that
00:24:40.920 one.
00:24:42.480 Now, as I
00:24:43.780 replied to my
00:24:44.680 critics who were
00:24:45.660 wondering how the
00:24:46.340 hell I guessed
00:24:46.880 that, was it a
00:24:48.220 guess or did I
00:24:48.960 have inside
00:24:49.520 information?
00:24:50.240 I will tell you I
00:24:50.900 didn't have inside
00:24:51.920 information.
00:24:53.400 So on this
00:24:54.120 particular topic,
00:24:54.980 sometimes I do.
00:24:56.820 I have to admit,
00:24:57.860 sometimes my
00:24:58.560 predictions are
00:25:00.180 based on a
00:25:00.940 little bit of
00:25:01.400 inside information.
00:25:02.660 Not always.
00:25:03.520 Sometimes.
00:25:04.680 This one had no
00:25:05.640 inside information.
00:25:06.720 The technique I
00:25:07.480 used I explained to
00:25:08.660 you ahead of
00:25:09.220 time.
00:25:12.620 Somebody says,
00:25:13.880 Scott pretends to
00:25:14.940 make predictions
00:25:15.540 based on insider
00:25:16.560 information.
00:25:17.500 Did you write that
00:25:18.240 before I just said
00:25:19.180 that or after?
00:25:21.160 But let me clarify.
00:25:23.020 I rarely make
00:25:24.420 predictions based on
00:25:25.680 insider information.
00:25:27.660 Is that different
00:25:28.680 than what you
00:25:29.200 think?
00:25:31.840 I think I rarely
00:25:32.900 do it.
00:25:33.560 Now, I don't
00:25:33.960 always tell you
00:25:34.680 because the source
00:25:35.680 of the inside
00:25:36.180 information might be
00:25:37.540 private.
00:25:39.340 But rarely,
00:25:41.360 rarely,
00:25:42.020 but sometimes.
00:25:43.000 I don't always
00:25:43.560 have inside
00:25:44.060 information.
00:25:45.460 All right.
00:25:47.120 Now, the part
00:25:47.900 that would make
00:25:48.440 this amazing
00:25:49.540 and really a
00:25:50.740 movie is if we
00:25:51.400 found out the
00:25:51.960 coronavirus came
00:25:52.860 out of the
00:25:53.460 Hunter Biden
00:25:53.980 funded biolab.
00:25:55.820 Now, I don't
00:25:56.360 think that's going
00:25:57.080 to happen.
00:25:58.080 But it would be
00:25:58.600 the perfect movie
00:25:59.380 ending, wouldn't
00:25:59.920 it?
00:26:00.720 So the technique
00:26:02.580 I use to predict
00:26:03.560 this is that
00:26:04.480 reality will follow
00:26:05.860 a movie script
00:26:07.420 path because
00:26:09.540 we're a...
00:26:12.200 There's a
00:26:14.380 Cristino video.
00:26:15.740 Don't know
00:26:16.280 about that.
00:26:19.160 So there's a...
00:26:21.400 By the way,
00:26:22.700 let me ask you
00:26:23.460 something.
00:26:25.400 If you see
00:26:26.340 anything about me
00:26:27.440 that you think
00:26:29.140 you need to send
00:26:29.920 to my ex,
00:26:30.600 don't do it.
00:26:31.160 And if you see
00:26:32.240 anything about her
00:26:32.940 in the media
00:26:33.500 or anything else
00:26:34.340 and you think,
00:26:35.420 well, he's got to
00:26:36.020 know about that,
00:26:36.800 just don't do it.
00:26:38.520 Just do me a favor.
00:26:39.320 Just don't do it.
00:26:40.140 Just stay out of it.
00:26:43.320 Everything's fine.
00:26:44.180 Just stay out of it.
00:26:45.600 All right.
00:26:51.060 Mushrooms are coming.
00:26:54.820 There's a weird
00:26:55.520 thing happening.
00:26:56.440 So a number of
00:26:57.160 Republicans and
00:26:58.260 Democrats around
00:26:59.200 the country in
00:27:00.500 about a dozen
00:27:01.100 states are
00:27:03.060 pushing legislation
00:27:04.200 to legalize
00:27:05.980 some form of
00:27:08.100 psychedelic
00:27:09.180 mushrooms.
00:27:10.300 Now, the context
00:27:11.060 usually is medical
00:27:12.020 or always, I think.
00:27:13.940 And it has to do
00:27:14.760 with experimentation
00:27:15.440 and maybe some
00:27:16.460 treatment.
00:27:17.460 And so what
00:27:18.100 they're doing is
00:27:18.540 different.
00:27:18.920 But here's the
00:27:19.420 amazing thing.
00:27:21.020 It's bipartisan.
00:27:23.060 There doesn't seem
00:27:23.980 to be like an
00:27:25.520 obvious difference
00:27:26.480 about whether this
00:27:27.740 is a Republican
00:27:28.440 or Democrat
00:27:30.080 thing.
00:27:31.920 And, you know,
00:27:33.760 the thinking is
00:27:34.420 that it might be
00:27:34.880 going the same
00:27:35.420 path as marijuana
00:27:36.540 legalization.
00:27:38.280 But I don't think
00:27:40.060 that's the
00:27:40.400 interesting part of
00:27:41.100 the story.
00:27:41.580 I do believe
00:27:42.400 that psychedelic
00:27:44.900 mushrooms are
00:27:45.580 guaranteed to
00:27:47.720 become legal and
00:27:49.280 routinely used in a
00:27:51.620 medical context.
00:27:53.500 That's my belief.
00:27:54.740 Actually, I'll make
00:27:55.400 that a prediction.
00:27:56.720 It's barely a
00:27:57.600 prediction because
00:27:58.160 it's just so
00:27:58.680 obvious.
00:27:59.640 I don't think
00:28:00.080 anybody disagrees,
00:28:01.020 do they?
00:28:01.660 Is there anybody
00:28:02.060 who would disagree?
00:28:03.320 I don't think so.
00:28:04.220 I think that's just
00:28:04.800 obvious at this
00:28:05.460 point.
00:28:06.220 So maybe some
00:28:06.840 other psychedelics
00:28:09.520 as well.
00:28:10.300 But mushrooms for
00:28:11.080 sure.
00:28:11.760 I will tell you
00:28:12.640 that in the last
00:28:13.380 few weeks, the
00:28:16.200 number of people
00:28:17.020 who I would call
00:28:18.080 normies, people
00:28:20.260 that you would
00:28:20.680 not associate
00:28:21.280 with advanced
00:28:23.180 drug use, I
00:28:25.440 think at least
00:28:25.980 three normies
00:28:26.920 have said
00:28:29.060 something about
00:28:29.840 wanting to do
00:28:30.760 mushrooms.
00:28:32.220 And apparently
00:28:33.140 there's some
00:28:33.720 chocolate bars,
00:28:35.960 and I don't know
00:28:36.540 if they're legal
00:28:37.120 or illegal, but
00:28:38.120 now there's a
00:28:40.720 well-made product
00:28:41.800 that puts the
00:28:43.260 mushrooms into
00:28:44.020 chocolate squares,
00:28:45.440 and I hate to
00:28:46.340 tell you this,
00:28:47.340 but it was the
00:28:48.180 main thing that
00:28:49.000 was keeping
00:28:49.400 mushrooms from
00:28:50.180 growing in terms
00:28:51.320 of the public
00:28:51.840 is dosage.
00:28:54.520 If you get a
00:28:55.260 bag of actual
00:28:56.160 mushrooms, you
00:28:57.640 don't know how
00:28:58.240 much to take.
00:28:59.800 And for me,
00:29:00.640 that's a full
00:29:02.020 stop.
00:29:03.560 If you don't
00:29:04.560 know a quantity
00:29:05.280 to take, full
00:29:06.880 stop.
00:29:08.000 And there's no
00:29:08.520 way I'm going to
00:29:09.000 play with something
00:29:09.680 I don't know the
00:29:10.200 quantity, especially
00:29:11.480 if a small
00:29:12.140 quantity could have.
00:29:13.380 Now, I don't
00:29:13.760 think, I've never
00:29:14.400 even heard of
00:29:14.880 anybody having a
00:29:15.520 bad mushroom
00:29:16.260 experience.
00:29:16.960 It must happen.
00:29:18.060 Like, one assumes
00:29:18.860 it does happen.
00:29:20.080 Never heard of it,
00:29:21.120 so I don't know
00:29:21.800 how dangerous it
00:29:22.480 is if I've never
00:29:23.120 heard of one
00:29:23.700 example.
00:29:25.440 But, so
00:29:27.240 mushrooms are
00:29:27.800 coming, and
00:29:28.860 there's nothing
00:29:29.280 to stop it.
00:29:30.580 However, that's
00:29:32.120 not the big
00:29:32.560 story.
00:29:32.860 I just got an
00:29:41.860 anonymous text
00:29:42.660 from somebody
00:29:43.200 who's saying
00:29:43.520 the chocolate
00:29:44.020 squares are
00:29:44.620 amazing.
00:29:45.620 So, mushrooms
00:29:47.520 have moved into
00:29:48.320 the mainstream.
00:29:51.900 You know that,
00:29:52.760 right?
00:29:53.860 So, ordinary
00:29:54.780 people, you just
00:29:55.700 don't associate
00:29:56.280 with this, are
00:29:56.960 just saying,
00:29:57.380 yeah, I'm going
00:29:58.240 to get some
00:29:58.580 mushrooms, and
00:29:59.240 mushrooms are
00:29:59.640 great.
00:29:59.820 Now, the
00:30:00.660 medicinal value
00:30:02.880 is almost
00:30:04.500 incalculable.
00:30:06.900 Mushrooms have
00:30:08.040 been reported
00:30:08.700 to be curing
00:30:10.660 everything from
00:30:11.760 addiction to
00:30:15.960 different mental
00:30:16.940 health illnesses,
00:30:18.340 anxiety, all
00:30:19.500 kinds of stuff.
00:30:20.640 And it's because
00:30:21.520 they all have the
00:30:22.100 same root.
00:30:24.440 Do you believe
00:30:25.520 that?
00:30:25.740 The reason
00:30:27.100 that mushrooms
00:30:28.180 and psychedelics
00:30:29.660 are reported
00:30:31.060 to, you know,
00:30:31.880 I'm not the
00:30:32.260 doctor, so I'm
00:30:32.900 not going to
00:30:33.180 tell you what's
00:30:33.600 true or not,
00:30:34.360 but reportedly
00:30:35.160 have these, you
00:30:36.660 know, miracle
00:30:37.180 cures against
00:30:38.980 all kinds of
00:30:39.680 different, seemingly
00:30:40.600 different conditions.
00:30:42.080 Like, is
00:30:42.520 addiction really
00:30:43.280 the same thing
00:30:43.960 as anxiety
00:30:45.500 or some
00:30:46.980 other mental
00:30:47.460 illness?
00:30:47.840 Not really.
00:30:49.180 But it seems
00:30:49.920 to fix all of
00:30:50.620 them.
00:30:51.240 Do you know
00:30:51.580 why?
00:30:52.780 Tell me why.
00:30:53.540 Why do
00:30:54.780 mushrooms seem
00:30:55.500 to work against
00:30:56.140 a bunch of
00:30:57.040 different things?
00:30:58.900 Somebody says
00:30:59.540 trauma equals
00:31:00.460 an, that's
00:31:02.380 interesting, trauma
00:31:03.960 equals inflammation.
00:31:05.720 I wouldn't bet
00:31:06.360 against that.
00:31:08.340 I haven't heard
00:31:09.400 that hypothesis,
00:31:10.300 but I like it.
00:31:13.100 All right, let
00:31:13.700 me, there we
00:31:14.900 go.
00:31:15.860 Yeah.
00:31:17.040 Yeah.
00:31:18.060 Mushrooms
00:31:18.560 dissolve your ego.
00:31:20.520 It's like rebooting
00:31:21.680 your whole mentality.
00:31:22.640 It allows you to
00:31:24.000 reframe your
00:31:24.860 existence.
00:31:26.500 So you basically
00:31:27.180 do a demo on
00:31:28.620 your entire thought
00:31:29.440 process, and
00:31:31.320 then by eliminating
00:31:33.300 your ego, because
00:31:34.180 in a way your ego
00:31:35.160 is what keeps all of
00:31:36.200 your existing thoughts
00:31:37.220 intact, even when
00:31:38.120 they're stupid.
00:31:39.660 Your ego is the
00:31:40.580 part that says,
00:31:41.100 well, you think I'm
00:31:42.520 wrong, but I'm not
00:31:43.160 wrong, because the
00:31:44.500 ego is protecting
00:31:45.260 itself.
00:31:45.860 It's the thing that
00:31:46.500 makes you not able to
00:31:47.400 change your opinion,
00:31:48.220 even when the evidence
00:31:48.980 says you should.
00:31:49.680 So if you get rid
00:31:51.100 of your ego, what
00:31:53.120 happens to your
00:31:53.740 confirmation bias?
00:31:55.760 It goes away.
00:31:57.680 Because it's your
00:31:58.620 ego protecting your
00:32:00.220 reputation, your
00:32:01.500 feelings and stuff.
00:32:02.380 That's the only reason
00:32:03.160 the confirmation bias
00:32:04.120 works, because you're
00:32:05.680 trying to protect
00:32:06.200 yourself.
00:32:07.060 If you take away the
00:32:08.020 protecting yourself, no
00:32:10.020 confirmation bias.
00:32:11.900 Imagine seeing the
00:32:12.940 world for the first
00:32:13.920 time without bias.
00:32:16.160 Now, it's impossible
00:32:21.240 to describe what
00:32:22.760 people experience
00:32:23.580 under any kind of
00:32:24.460 hallucinogenic state.
00:32:26.080 There aren't any
00:32:26.960 words in the
00:32:27.640 non-hallucinogenic
00:32:28.480 state that capture
00:32:29.780 that in a way you
00:32:30.460 can transmit it.
00:32:32.000 All I'm going to
00:32:32.880 say is that it
00:32:34.800 doesn't surprise me
00:32:35.820 that if you can
00:32:37.200 eliminate your ego
00:32:38.780 long enough to
00:32:40.080 reprogram your
00:32:41.240 frames, that when
00:32:43.580 you come back
00:32:44.140 online after the
00:32:46.040 mushrooms, and
00:32:48.300 again, let me say
00:32:49.120 this to avoid
00:32:50.500 demonetization, I'm
00:32:52.420 very much against
00:32:53.240 anybody using any
00:32:54.260 kind of drug that's
00:32:55.180 not doctor-recommended
00:32:56.420 and doctor-supervised.
00:32:58.640 So, you know, don't
00:32:59.420 go wild and just
00:33:00.340 shove magic mushrooms
00:33:01.740 in your mouth.
00:33:03.120 Be a little smart,
00:33:04.180 okay?
00:33:06.360 All right.
00:33:07.320 The Supreme Court
00:33:08.360 ruled that Biden is
00:33:09.460 the commander-in-chief.
00:33:11.200 You know, I thought
00:33:12.100 that was like a joke
00:33:13.020 headline.
00:33:14.800 Was it Politico
00:33:16.420 had that headline?
00:33:18.220 And then I read the
00:33:19.400 article, I was like,
00:33:20.020 oh yeah, actually that
00:33:20.800 headline does capture
00:33:21.600 it.
00:33:21.940 So the Supreme Court
00:33:22.740 was ruling on
00:33:25.060 whether Biden can
00:33:26.280 order the troops to
00:33:27.440 get vaccinated, or
00:33:29.680 because it's maybe
00:33:30.920 unconstitutional, the
00:33:33.020 commander-in-chief could
00:33:34.140 not tell people to get
00:33:35.880 mandatory vaccines.
00:33:37.260 But the court ruled
00:33:38.500 that the commander-in-chief
00:33:39.460 can pretty much tell the
00:33:40.660 troops to do anything
00:33:41.540 because he or she is
00:33:44.300 the commander-in-chief.
00:33:45.860 That's why.
00:33:47.680 And I feel I agree
00:33:50.080 with that.
00:33:51.960 You know, you could say
00:33:53.140 that there's some kind
00:33:54.220 of evil going on with
00:33:55.300 forcing anybody to get
00:33:56.380 a shot, but I don't
00:33:59.800 think we treat the
00:34:00.980 military like any other
00:34:02.500 part of society.
00:34:03.360 Am I wrong that the
00:34:05.840 military can expressly
00:34:08.320 discriminate?
00:34:09.480 They can, can't they?
00:34:12.480 Can't the military
00:34:13.700 discriminate?
00:34:15.560 They can.
00:34:17.680 It's the only part of
00:34:19.360 society, well, that's
00:34:20.360 not true.
00:34:21.120 But it's one part of
00:34:22.260 society that is
00:34:23.100 explicitly allowed to
00:34:24.480 discriminate.
00:34:26.740 Now, they can't
00:34:27.980 discriminate against
00:34:28.860 race.
00:34:30.020 Do you know why?
00:34:32.540 Because race apparently
00:34:33.940 doesn't affect your
00:34:35.040 fighting capability.
00:34:37.280 Makes sense, right?
00:34:38.960 There just wouldn't be
00:34:39.940 any reason.
00:34:40.640 Now, if there was a
00:34:41.540 reason, that would be
00:34:43.040 dicey.
00:34:44.880 If it turned out there
00:34:45.960 was some reason, the
00:34:47.520 race made a difference
00:34:48.500 in your fighting, they
00:34:49.320 would discriminate.
00:34:50.680 They would.
00:34:52.080 Because that's their
00:34:52.840 job.
00:34:53.700 But as it turns out, it's
00:34:55.720 probably not a factor.
00:34:57.200 So, they can discriminate
00:34:58.960 against your height.
00:35:01.000 Am I right?
00:35:02.240 You could be too small.
00:35:04.080 You could be too old.
00:35:05.720 Too disabled.
00:35:06.640 So, the military is all
00:35:08.800 about discriminating.
00:35:10.280 And when it comes to the
00:35:11.200 trans question, I think
00:35:13.860 they only care about cost
00:35:15.520 and readiness.
00:35:17.780 And otherwise, that's your
00:35:18.760 problem.
00:35:19.960 So, we do allow the
00:35:21.580 military to discriminate,
00:35:23.720 and the Supreme Court has
00:35:25.040 backed them in that
00:35:26.060 ability.
00:35:27.100 The discrimination is a
00:35:28.860 weird kind because it's
00:35:29.660 about the vaccinations.
00:35:30.420 All right.
00:35:33.980 Fact-checkers on Twitter
00:35:35.740 were going wild today, and
00:35:37.580 they were fact-checking as
00:35:39.200 false a claim that
00:35:41.100 vaccines were hurting
00:35:42.560 people more than they
00:35:43.540 were helping them.
00:35:44.700 So, they say, the fact-
00:35:46.180 checkers say, this is not
00:35:47.240 me, this is the fact-
00:35:48.100 checkers.
00:35:49.020 And can we pause for a
00:35:50.320 moment?
00:35:51.380 Give you a little context.
00:35:54.200 If you look at something
00:35:55.320 like factcheck.org, one of
00:35:58.460 the ways you can know that
00:35:59.540 they're right about
00:36:00.480 everything, is that fact
00:36:02.740 is right in their name.
00:36:04.440 Fact-check.
00:36:06.120 So, therefore, logically,
00:36:08.420 it follows that 100% of
00:36:10.960 the things they say are
00:36:12.080 facts.
00:36:13.360 And so, when I read this
00:36:14.280 fact-check, you should
00:36:15.120 definitely believe the
00:36:16.100 fact-check.
00:36:17.520 Do not believe the
00:36:18.740 alleged fake fact.
00:36:21.400 Don't believe that.
00:36:23.140 Oh, wait a minute.
00:36:24.720 Okay.
00:36:26.080 All right.
00:36:26.700 I did some mushrooms, and
00:36:28.520 now I'm thinking more
00:36:29.220 clearly.
00:36:30.220 It does turn out that the
00:36:31.400 fact-checks are exactly as
00:36:33.500 non-credible as any
00:36:35.420 conspiracy theory.
00:36:37.660 Now, I'm not going to back
00:36:38.880 the conspiracy theory in
00:36:40.300 this specific case, but it
00:36:43.320 is sadly true that the
00:36:45.960 fact-checkers do not have
00:36:47.460 more credibility than the
00:36:49.180 conspiracy theory.
00:36:50.440 They can be right.
00:36:51.840 I'm not saying they're
00:36:52.520 wrong.
00:36:53.620 They don't have
00:36:54.260 credibility.
00:36:55.300 Certainly not on this.
00:36:56.220 And let me tell you why
00:36:57.560 they don't have
00:36:58.040 credibility.
00:36:59.520 So, here's the story.
00:37:01.080 So, there's a bogus claim
00:37:02.220 by some doctor's group
00:37:03.900 that's organized doctor's
00:37:05.960 group to basically say
00:37:08.660 contrarian things about
00:37:09.900 the pandemic.
00:37:11.920 You've probably seen them.
00:37:13.920 And they say that the,
00:37:17.340 there's a misleading graphic
00:37:18.860 to show that the deaths
00:37:20.800 rose even though the
00:37:22.020 vaccinations were rolled
00:37:23.280 down.
00:37:23.520 So, the graph purported to
00:37:25.960 show that there was no
00:37:27.340 difference in the deaths
00:37:28.420 and they kept going up
00:37:29.340 after vaccinations rolled
00:37:30.620 out.
00:37:32.240 The fact-check says they
00:37:33.700 made this mistake.
00:37:35.860 They confuse cumulative with
00:37:38.360 daily.
00:37:40.680 What?
00:37:42.260 Who does that?
00:37:43.520 The graph, apparently the
00:37:45.600 entire graph only, it only
00:37:49.760 tells the story that these
00:37:50.920 doctors wanted to tell
00:37:52.040 because they confused
00:37:53.900 cumulative deaths, which, by
00:37:56.200 the way, you do know that
00:37:57.880 cumulative deaths always go
00:38:01.360 up, right?
00:38:02.620 They never really turn down.
00:38:05.740 You can't add anything to
00:38:07.460 anything and get less of it.
00:38:09.820 It doesn't work.
00:38:10.800 And so, the doctors who
00:38:12.700 are, have I ever mentioned
00:38:13.660 this?
00:38:14.640 Have I ever mentioned that
00:38:15.620 doctors, while they might be
00:38:18.040 excellent at doctoring, do not
00:38:21.060 necessarily have skills at data
00:38:23.080 analysis?
00:38:25.860 Exhibit A.
00:38:27.340 If you can't tell the
00:38:28.560 difference between cumulative
00:38:30.260 and daily, well, maybe you
00:38:32.780 shouldn't talk in public about
00:38:33.940 data.
00:38:35.660 But, and then the fact-checkers
00:38:38.340 pointed to two studies, more
00:38:40.360 recent studies, that showed
00:38:42.160 that the vaccines totally
00:38:43.320 worked and that they saved
00:38:45.200 America.
00:38:47.540 And so, you can believe the
00:38:48.920 fact-check because they
00:38:49.960 pointed to two studies.
00:38:52.580 And if it's in the study, am I
00:38:55.200 right?
00:38:56.260 It's in the study.
00:38:57.880 Well, it's got to be true.
00:38:59.400 It's got to be true if it's in
00:39:00.680 a study.
00:39:02.660 No.
00:39:04.060 No.
00:39:05.020 What about two studies?
00:39:06.140 There are two studies that say
00:39:08.680 that it works.
00:39:10.320 So, you believe that?
00:39:12.360 Two studies?
00:39:14.540 No.
00:39:15.740 No.
00:39:16.760 No, I happen to think it's
00:39:18.460 probably true that the vaccines
00:39:21.300 worked.
00:39:22.340 And I would place a fairly large
00:39:24.200 bet on that, actually.
00:39:25.720 But, we can't tell.
00:39:28.240 There is no fucking way that you
00:39:30.840 and I know if the vaccines
00:39:32.560 worked or not.
00:39:33.740 Because we only get bullshit.
00:39:35.280 The only data is unreliable
00:39:37.960 data.
00:39:38.420 That's all we have.
00:39:39.360 We have only unreliable data.
00:39:42.340 So, I have my bias.
00:39:43.820 My bias is that the vaccine
00:39:45.020 probably worked.
00:39:46.040 Do you think that I'm biased by
00:39:47.300 the fact that I got vaccinated?
00:39:49.780 Do you think my belief that
00:39:52.040 vaccines maybe were safer than
00:39:54.160 some people thought, do you
00:39:55.620 think that it's in any way
00:39:56.520 influenced by the fact that I
00:39:58.500 got vaccinated?
00:39:59.260 It's in any way.
00:40:00.260 It's in any way.
00:40:01.260 Yes!
00:40:02.540 Yes!
00:40:04.060 If I've taught you nothing,
00:40:06.360 you should know that.
00:40:08.200 Of fucking course, I'm biased.
00:40:11.420 Now, does it help that I'm
00:40:15.200 completely aware of the source
00:40:17.460 of the bias?
00:40:18.800 A little bit.
00:40:19.940 But not much, right?
00:40:22.940 If people could see past their
00:40:24.620 bias because they understood
00:40:25.940 where it was coming from,
00:40:27.620 well, we'd be in pretty good
00:40:28.720 shape.
00:40:29.560 But apparently, people can't do
00:40:30.820 that.
00:40:31.500 And why would I think I can?
00:40:33.460 If I observe that it just
00:40:35.240 doesn't seem to be something
00:40:36.360 that human beings can do,
00:40:38.620 why would I think I can do it?
00:40:41.360 Now, it feels like I can do it,
00:40:43.860 but it feels like you can do it
00:40:45.360 too, doesn't it?
00:40:46.080 And I'm not so sure you can do
00:40:47.660 it.
00:40:48.340 So the fact that it feels like,
00:40:50.700 you know, I can come up with
00:40:51.840 good, unbiased opinions means
00:40:53.780 nothing.
00:40:54.860 I definitely feel like I can.
00:40:56.800 If you ask me, Scott, like,
00:40:58.860 really deep down in your bones,
00:41:00.320 do you think you could overcome
00:41:01.360 these bias?
00:41:02.080 I'd say, with a completely
00:41:03.360 straight face, I'd say, you
00:41:05.900 know, I really think I can.
00:41:08.720 Unlike everybody else in the
00:41:10.180 world, I really think I can.
00:41:12.440 And then I step back and I hear
00:41:13.880 myself, and I think, okay,
00:41:15.920 listen to yourself.
00:41:17.460 Listen to yourself.
00:41:18.780 Now listen to everybody else on
00:41:20.480 earth who you know can't do
00:41:22.380 that.
00:41:23.180 Yeah, they all think they can.
00:41:25.460 So that's the only way you can
00:41:28.180 get to anything like humility,
00:41:29.920 is to understand that you're
00:41:31.760 claiming a superpower that
00:41:33.980 everybody on earth claims, and
00:41:35.620 nobody has.
00:41:37.060 Nobody has it.
00:41:38.440 The ability to be unbiased.
00:41:41.780 So factor that in when you look
00:41:44.000 at my claims.
00:41:45.140 Now, here's the payoff.
00:41:47.220 There's nothing interesting in
00:41:48.900 knowing that the fact-checkers
00:41:50.380 say something you don't think is
00:41:52.000 true.
00:41:52.820 But here's the trick.
00:41:56.420 Are you ready?
00:41:58.480 Was this the only data and the
00:42:00.520 only graph and the only group
00:42:02.280 saying that vaccinations might
00:42:05.240 have been more dangerous than we've
00:42:06.520 been told?
00:42:07.600 Only one?
00:42:08.900 Nobody else out there?
00:42:09.960 Did anybody else have different
00:42:12.280 arguments, but they came to a
00:42:15.160 similar conclusion?
00:42:16.840 Why is it that the fact-check orgs
00:42:18.880 just had multiple orgasms on this
00:42:22.380 one specific claim?
00:42:25.840 Why is that?
00:42:28.460 Because I'm seeing stuff by other
00:42:30.100 people online, I won't name names,
00:42:32.700 that seem far more compelling than
00:42:36.000 this one would have.
00:42:38.340 But I don't hear anybody fact-checking
00:42:39.880 them.
00:42:41.100 Do you?
00:42:42.440 Have you now seen completely
00:42:43.960 different claims that vaccines
00:42:46.200 might have a problem?
00:42:47.040 I don't know if they're true, and I'm
00:42:49.240 not saying that they are.
00:42:50.720 In fact, I'd bet against them.
00:42:52.020 I don't think they're true.
00:42:53.640 But I don't know.
00:42:54.580 I don't know, and you don't know
00:42:56.060 either.
00:42:57.260 So why is it that they picked this
00:42:59.240 one to debunk?
00:43:03.200 If you don't know this, I will be
00:43:05.600 disappointed, because you've been
00:43:07.580 watching me for a while.
00:43:08.900 Why'd they pick this one to debunk?
00:43:14.480 It's a diversion.
00:43:15.340 They picked the weakest one to
00:43:17.920 debunk, because they can't debunk
00:43:20.700 the strong one.
00:43:22.040 If they debunk the weakest one, they
00:43:23.720 could say, we've debunked the idea
00:43:25.240 that vaccinations are dangerous.
00:43:27.360 Just look at it.
00:43:27.960 There's my fact-check.
00:43:29.140 We just debunked it.
00:43:30.420 Totally debunked.
00:43:32.180 But why did they debunk the weakest,
00:43:35.540 most obviously wrong one that had no
00:43:37.520 value at all, when there are stronger
00:43:39.780 claims that also might be false, but
00:43:42.200 they appear to be more substantive?
00:43:45.340 This is propaganda.
00:43:48.420 This is brainwashing.
00:43:50.700 And again, I'm not saying that
00:43:52.140 vaccinations are dangerous, because I
00:43:53.840 think if I had to bet, I'd bet that
00:43:56.320 the risk balance was appropriate.
00:44:00.460 Don't know.
00:44:01.500 Could be totally wrong, because I'm
00:44:03.420 biased.
00:44:04.480 You don't need to tell me I'm biased.
00:44:05.880 I know that.
00:44:07.380 All right.
00:44:09.020 But if you see a fact-checker going
00:44:10.780 after the weakest argument, you should
00:44:12.520 say, fuck you, a fact-checker.
00:44:14.580 You are trying to manipulate me by going
00:44:16.740 after the weakest argument.
00:44:17.940 Go after the strong one.
00:44:19.660 Do you know how I tell you that if you're
00:44:21.440 trying to debunk the list of persuasion,
00:44:24.460 somebody comes at you with a list of 10
00:44:26.280 reasons why something's true?
00:44:27.700 If they've got 10 reasons why something's
00:44:31.020 true, the only way you should attack that
00:44:33.540 is say, give me your one best reason.
00:44:36.320 Would you agree?
00:44:37.140 If I can debunk your one best reason,
00:44:39.280 you'll go rethink the others.
00:44:41.320 That's all you can do.
00:44:42.400 That's the best you can do.
00:44:46.220 Well, here's a question.
00:44:47.740 Do you think Russia will run out of
00:44:49.340 generals before Ukraine runs out of
00:44:52.340 bullets?
00:44:52.700 Because it seems like every day or so
00:44:55.440 we're hearing about another Russian
00:44:56.660 general got killed by the Ukrainians.
00:45:01.500 How many of you believe that is true?
00:45:05.700 Well, I'm going to agree with Twitter
00:45:09.980 user, I hope I wrote down his name.
00:45:15.380 Maybe I'll find it later.
00:45:18.480 But I think that after the war is over,
00:45:21.200 we're going to find out that maybe some
00:45:22.560 of those generals are alive.
00:45:23.900 What do you think?
00:45:25.600 I think maybe some of those generals
00:45:27.060 might be alive.
00:45:28.240 Maybe more than we think.
00:45:30.420 All right.
00:45:30.660 There was, speaking of Russian
00:45:31.600 generals, there was a Russian general
00:45:32.860 who was talking about what they were
00:45:35.440 trying to accomplish, what Russia is
00:45:36.900 trying to accomplish.
00:45:38.240 And it feels like he was moving the
00:45:40.300 goalpost a little bit.
00:45:42.540 So here's what the Russian general says
00:45:44.280 they're trying to accomplish.
00:45:45.500 In his own words, the combat potential
00:45:49.740 of the armed forces of Ukraine has been
00:45:51.660 significantly reduced, allowing us,
00:45:54.360 I emphasize again, to focus the main efforts
00:45:57.780 on achieving the main goal, the liberation
00:46:01.020 of Donbass and the other region there.
00:46:03.780 I forget his name.
00:46:04.360 So it seems that a Russian general, speaking
00:46:07.980 in public, presumably not off page,
00:46:12.240 is saying that the reason they're there
00:46:14.100 is to basically degrade the Ukrainian military
00:46:18.040 and to liberate Donbass.
00:46:20.780 Now, backwards mission creep, right?
00:46:24.940 You see what's forming here, right?
00:46:27.100 This is the exit strategy.
00:46:28.340 So Putin is putting in play an option
00:46:31.640 if it turns out he can't conquer the whole country,
00:46:35.460 which one assumes would be the preferred thing.
00:46:38.760 But he's creating an option to say,
00:46:41.900 these were our goals, even if they weren't,
00:46:44.260 and here's how we accomplished them,
00:46:45.820 even if we didn't, and now we can get out.
00:46:49.240 Right?
00:46:49.700 So you can see the end game now.
00:46:51.320 The end game is really clear.
00:46:53.180 The end game is that Putin will create a situation
00:46:55.760 in which he can definitely claim victory.
00:46:59.400 Here's my opinion as of today.
00:47:03.140 Russia won.
00:47:05.000 In my opinion, the war is basically over.
00:47:08.680 I mean, it still needs to run out.
00:47:10.740 But here's what I think.
00:47:12.460 I don't think we were trying to win this war.
00:47:15.860 Because that's not what winning a war looks like.
00:47:18.080 Am I right?
00:47:19.640 When I say we, I mean the Western people
00:47:22.420 backing the Ukrainians.
00:47:23.980 We weren't trying to win this war.
00:47:26.240 We weren't.
00:47:28.520 Because I don't think we wanted to.
00:47:32.020 Because when we want to do something
00:47:33.620 and we have the ability to do it,
00:47:36.040 well, don't we do it?
00:47:37.700 Am I right?
00:47:38.660 If we have the ability to do something
00:47:40.320 and we want to do it,
00:47:42.540 we do it.
00:47:44.140 So here we have the ability
00:47:45.340 to do far more damage,
00:47:47.720 and we didn't do it.
00:47:49.500 That looks like a choice.
00:47:50.580 It looks like a choice to simply destroy Ukraine
00:47:54.860 and destroy Russia
00:47:55.980 for maybe decades
00:47:58.880 to get an advantage over them
00:48:01.700 so that they couldn't fund their military
00:48:03.280 and wouldn't sell their energy against us.
00:48:06.100 So I think both sides are going to get what they want,
00:48:09.920 weirdly, in a way.
00:48:12.400 Here's what Putin's going to get.
00:48:14.260 Complete victory.
00:48:16.060 It looks at this point, if he survives,
00:48:18.580 and it looks like he will,
00:48:20.160 that Putin just won.
00:48:21.120 I think he just won straight up.
00:48:23.860 Because he can tell his people he won.
00:48:26.560 He did get things he didn't have before.
00:48:29.340 Now what he loses
00:48:30.160 is maybe international reputation
00:48:34.260 and then sanctions.
00:48:37.320 But let me tell you,
00:48:38.220 if the sanctions last 10 years,
00:48:40.900 but their productive control of Ukraine
00:48:43.880 lasts 100,
00:48:46.380 Putin is going to look like
00:48:47.420 one of the best leaders Russia ever had.
00:48:49.180 Am I wrong about that?
00:48:51.720 All he has to do is serve on his time,
00:48:54.320 you know,
00:48:54.560 and keep the history books
00:48:56.840 saying what he wants them to say.
00:48:58.960 And he's going to say,
00:48:59.760 we got rid of the Russians,
00:49:01.140 or I'm sorry,
00:49:01.600 we got rid of the Nazis,
00:49:03.180 we repatriated the Russian-speaking lands,
00:49:06.680 we built a land bridge,
00:49:08.120 and we neutralized the Ukrainian threat,
00:49:12.340 and we kept NATO out.
00:49:14.900 I think he ran the table.
00:49:16.320 Am I right?
00:49:18.720 He ran the table.
00:49:19.840 He got everything.
00:49:21.120 Because I don't know
00:49:21.680 that he really cared about Kiev.
00:49:23.140 I mean,
00:49:23.800 Kiev is irrelevant.
00:49:25.280 If you own the parts you want,
00:49:26.720 you've got everything you need,
00:49:27.860 and you can come back if you need to,
00:49:30.120 and blah, blah, blah.
00:49:31.480 So Putin himself won't starve.
00:49:33.840 His country might go through some tough times.
00:49:35.880 I think they will.
00:49:37.000 But so will everybody else.
00:49:39.140 I mean,
00:49:39.460 we're heading toward a potential global food shortage.
00:49:43.900 And I think we're going to work our way around that.
00:49:47.080 I think we'll be okay on the food.
00:49:48.760 But I think Russia's going to go through a tough 10 or 20 years,
00:49:54.060 and then in 100 years,
00:49:56.420 Putin will look like a hero,
00:49:57.880 one of the great builders of the nation,
00:50:00.060 and he will win.
00:50:01.840 And it will never have that much effect on his personal life,
00:50:04.420 because he'll go to his dacha
00:50:05.820 and have his harem and whatever else he's doing.
00:50:09.000 So it looks like he won.
00:50:17.940 What else has happened?
00:50:20.580 Oh, it was Gregory Maccles on Twitter.
00:50:25.420 This was his tweet.
00:50:26.560 I'm agreeing with this.
00:50:27.400 He said,
00:50:27.740 My money is that most of those generals will pop up alive after the war,
00:50:31.840 and after many people who follow edgy Russian sources...
00:50:35.100 Oh, and only the people who follow edgy Russian sources will know about it.
00:50:39.880 I wouldn't bet against that.
00:50:42.380 Now, you know, if one general died,
00:50:45.040 well, I'd believe that, or maybe two or three.
00:50:47.140 I'd believe that.
00:50:47.940 I mean, anything could happen.
00:50:49.260 But seven or eight generals?
00:50:51.520 No.
00:50:52.860 Here's another fake news.
00:50:54.800 There's a story that a Russian commander has died
00:50:58.360 after being run over by a tank by his own mutinous troops.
00:51:02.520 So that was in the news today.
00:51:03.700 Do you believe that?
00:51:06.200 It comes from a Ukrainian journalist.
00:51:09.720 One source.
00:51:11.260 A Ukrainian journalist believes that he witnessed it,
00:51:14.780 or he was close to the scene, so he found out about it,
00:51:17.980 that the mutinous troops ran over their own commander
00:51:21.420 with a tank.
00:51:25.140 Now, how fast does a tank go?
00:51:30.360 And how fast can a Russian general get out of the way?
00:51:33.960 Are you buying a Russian tank ran over a general?
00:51:38.860 Yeah.
00:51:39.320 Now, somebody says it could be an accident.
00:51:41.520 How many people in a war zone during a hot war,
00:51:44.320 how many people die by mutinous murder
00:51:49.940 versus accidents and acts of war?
00:51:53.680 If you had to put a bet on this one,
00:51:56.700 somebody says 30 or 40 miles an hour, but very loud,
00:52:00.120 I'm guessing you could see it coming.
00:52:02.960 Yeah, I wouldn't stand in front of it, that's for sure.
00:52:04.700 A tank goes faster than a person can run,
00:52:09.700 but does a tank turn faster than a person
00:52:13.240 can just walk out of the way?
00:52:15.620 If you saw a tank coming at you at 30 or 40 miles an hour,
00:52:19.560 and remember, it's not going to be at top speed,
00:52:21.420 because it's...
00:52:22.680 Could you get out of the way?
00:52:26.300 Can tanks go sideways too easily?
00:52:29.280 Somebody says they're surprisingly agile,
00:52:32.840 but at that speed.
00:52:36.600 Have you looked up Operation Gladio yet?
00:52:39.460 No, should I?
00:52:41.960 All right, I'm going to call this fake news,
00:52:44.060 because it's a little bit too on the nose.
00:52:46.340 You know, when you predict,
00:52:47.280 hey, I think Ukraine's going to do some propaganda like this,
00:52:50.400 and then some propaganda like this comes out,
00:52:53.180 right when you expect it.
00:52:55.000 Because this is right when you expect
00:52:56.740 the mutinous Russian soldier stories.
00:53:00.380 Now, I did get credit.
00:53:03.960 I think Andres Bekhaus gave me credit for...
00:53:07.520 And he said if, big question,
00:53:09.280 he said if it's true, then I predicted it.
00:53:13.080 But I don't think it's true.
00:53:14.100 So I'm not going to take credit for that,
00:53:15.340 because I don't think it's true.
00:53:17.840 And that, ladies and gentlemen,
00:53:19.760 brings us to the end of possibly the best livestream
00:53:22.160 that has ever happened in the history of civilization.
00:53:25.700 Civilization.
00:53:28.400 And try ordering your bagels in separate boxes.
00:53:33.860 That would double my work.
00:53:35.840 I know how to fix it if I double my work.
00:53:38.900 Trust me.
00:53:40.860 I easily know how to fix it by doubling my work.
00:53:44.240 I'm trying to avoid that.
00:53:47.660 Oh, my God.
00:53:48.740 Zelensky being recognized by the Oscars
00:53:50.780 is a strike against validity.
00:53:53.280 Yep.
00:53:54.720 It is.
00:54:02.980 Get a girl to sniff my bagels?
00:54:05.340 Oh, yeah.
00:54:06.060 Maybe I could get a bagel-sniffing service animal.
00:54:10.640 Not a woman.
00:54:11.380 But maybe like a squirrel or something.
00:54:17.160 You don't really need a whole dog for that job.
00:54:19.640 I guess some kind of a ferret or something like that.
00:54:22.680 Ferrets.
00:54:23.140 There we go.
00:54:25.080 Putin won by ignoring Biden?
00:54:27.460 Maybe.
00:54:28.760 Now, who do you think owns Mariupol?
00:54:31.880 So the Ukrainian city
00:54:34.180 that has been demolished by Russia.
00:54:37.480 Who do you think owns Mariupol?
00:54:41.320 The news tells you that Ukraine still owns it.
00:54:46.820 I'm not so sure about that.
00:54:49.280 Who owns rubble?
00:54:50.960 If you've surrounded the rubble, do you own it?
00:54:53.320 Or if you live in the rubble, do you own it?
00:54:55.440 Who owns the rubble?
00:54:56.980 The people living in it and starving?
00:54:59.020 Or the people who have surrounded it
00:55:00.420 with a massive military?
00:55:03.240 Oh, that's a bad pun.
00:55:05.600 Marry a rubble.
00:55:06.460 Ugh.
00:55:07.480 It's clever.
00:55:10.680 Too soon.
00:55:11.680 Too soon.
00:55:15.320 Yeah.
00:55:16.440 I don't know.
00:55:17.460 So I don't think any of the news coming out of Ukraine
00:55:19.440 should be believed.
00:55:20.680 I think you've got that story by now.
00:55:23.480 And how do we do today?
00:55:29.260 Was it amazing?
00:55:32.820 It was, was it?
00:55:33.820 Yeah, best ever, I think.
00:55:35.120 Probably the highlight of your day.
00:55:38.580 And now, I'll be turning off YouTube.
00:55:43.260 I'm glad you enjoyed the perfect audio experience.
00:55:47.500 And now, go enjoy the rest of your day.
00:55:51.580 Go enjoy the rest of your day.
00:55:51.600 Go on, go.
00:55:52.560 Go on, go.
00:56:01.800 Go for the rest of my day.
00:56:03.440 Go on, go.
00:56:08.420 Go on, go.
00:56:08.640 Go on, go.
00:56:09.460 Go on, go.
00:56:10.100 Go on, go.
00:56:10.380 Go on, go.
00:56:10.820 Go on, go on.
00:56:12.620 Go on, go on, go.
00:56:13.340 Go on, go.
00:56:13.520 Go on, go, go.
00:56:13.860 Go on, go.
00:56:14.940 Go on, go.