Episode 1713 Scott Adams: Elon Musk Offers To Buy Twitter, Russia's Biggest Ship Whacked, More
Episode Stats
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Summary
Elon Musk has offered to buy Twitter for $2.9 billion, and Scott Adams is here to talk about why that's a bad idea. Plus, how to sell a masterpiece for $40 million, and why you should try to draw one.
Transcript
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Good morning, everybody. Whoa! Do you look good-looking today. You know, often you're attractive,
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but there's something a little extra sexy about you today, and I think you know it.
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Do you know that you have blundered into the highlight of civilization called Coffee with
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Scott Adams? There's no better feeling, and it's going to go up a level. Yeah, from no better
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feeling to no better feeling plus, turbo, extreme, and all you need is a cup or mug or a glass of
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tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite
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liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure. It's the dopamine hit of
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the day with a little bit of oxytocin. We're going to sprinkle that in toward the end. It's called
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the simultaneous sip, and it happens now. Go. Ah. Now, when you saw the news today, which you
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probably did, that Elon Musk has offered to buy Twitter, did you say to yourself, well, that's a
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perfect topic for a coffee with Scott Adams? Because I did. I did. I'll bet some of you did, too.
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And we'll get to that in a moment. But I like this story. Do you know what an NFT is, those of you who
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follow anything crypto? If you don't follow crypto, I'm going to describe it to you very simply,
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and you're going to think I'm leaving something out. If you think I'm leaving something out,
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then you understand it completely. An NFT is a digital image, the same kind of thing you can get from,
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let's say, making a screenshot of something on your screen. And because it's special,
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or somebody has decided it's special, it's collectible. And it's registered on the blockchain,
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meaning that anybody can check and find out it's really yours and what the path of it has been,
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who bought it and who sold it. But these NFTs can sell for millions of dollars. Case in point,
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Jack Dorsey, last year, a year ago, sold his first tweet as an NFT. So I think he literally
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probably just took a screenshot of the tweet and sold a screenshot of his own tweet for
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$2.9 million. Now, I guess he donated that money. But the person who bought it tried to turn it
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around for a nifty profit, tried to sell it for $48 million, somebody said. I don't know about that,
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but okay. So he did not give $48 million. So he bought it for $2.9 million. And at the end of the
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auction, the highest bid was $280. So he bought it for $2.9 million. And the best bid for selling was
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$280. So if you were thinking of getting into the NFT business to hit it rich, well, I would say
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look at diversification. Don't put all your $2.9 million into one NFT. Don't do that.
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Well, have you heard that Elon Musk is offered to buy Twitter?
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As I tweeted, this changes everything. Do you believe that? Now, I'm assuming that he succeeds,
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because there's certainly some possibility, maybe probability, of some pushback. Because the
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employees at Twitter, well, they may not all be as delighted as potentially you and I are.
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So there might be some pushback. But let's say he succeeds. Would that change everything? Is that
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too big of a claim? Because I saw somebody on Twitter say, you realize very few people actually
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use Twitter, compared to the other social networks, and compared to anything else. To which I say,
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yes, there are not that many number of people in the United States. But here's what you need to know,
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persuasion-wise. Now, here's something you don't want to try at home,
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to draw these clever graphs, because I'm a professional artist. So I can do this and not
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confuse you. But if you try this at home, do you think you could have pulled this off? No. I'm a
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syndicated cartoonist. I can do this in my sleep. You're saying to yourself, oh, I could do a stick
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person, too. Could you? Could you? Yeah. You could do a stick person, but could you do it this well?
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Consider Van Gogh, if I may digress. The first time you saw Van Gogh, you said to yourself,
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well, these lines are all wavy, and he's drawn everything out of perspective.
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You probably said to yourself, I could probably do that myself. Did you ever try? It's harder than it
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looks, isn't it? Try to draw a masterpiece yourself. See if you can sell it for $40 million
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like Van Gogh. No, you can't do it. So don't think that art is easy just because you look at it and say,
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I could do that. You can't. Try this at home, right? I dare you. You can't do that. That's professional
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work right there. Now, not just one, but I can do this all day long, right? A lot of people would
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do this. You'd be exhausted. You're not a professional. Professionals can do this all day
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long. All right. That wasn't really the point I was about to make. The point I was about to make
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was that Twitter is not like other things. Whoever has, let's say, functional control of
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Twitter, because it's the thing that journalists are most influenced by, and journalists tell us
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collectively, and I'm using journalists as a proxy for all the opinion makers. So that would include
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any pundit, anybody whose voice changes your belief system. Collectively, these people are addicted to
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Twitter, and they can't really go too much against Twitter without inviting serious pushback.
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So in my opinion, whereas Bezos found a good publication in the Washington Post that does
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have a huge impact on what news is considered news, probably nothing has as much leverage for
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the amount he's likely to spend, if successful. If Twitter becomes more, let's say, less biased,
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which would be the goal, less biased, more useful content, then these journalists who create the
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reality itself, in other words, our understanding of reality is created by the journalists collectively.
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And now Twitter controls the journalists, and maybe Elon Musk will control Twitter. So what if Twitter
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decides that their big thing is going to be transparency and showing both sides? You know, instead of
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censorship, just make sure that anything controversial gets tagged with the opposing view. Imagine that.
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It would be pretty radical, wouldn't it? And it would basically neuter all of these journalists in terms of
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their ability to control the narrative. Because every time they tried it, the counter narrative would be
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right there. You just see the counter. And so when I say that Elon Musk buying Twitter changes everything,
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if successful, we don't know if he'll succeed. It could change everything about the way you see the world,
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which is your everything. Right? That's your everything. So this is way bigger than you think.
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Did you see the price he's offering? $54.20 a share. $54.20. $54.20. $54.20. Is that a coincidence?
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Probably not. Probably not. Probably not. But the thing I was wondering is, was he watching the stock price
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and adjusting his offer until he could make those numbers work? Okay, it's $4.19. Make it $4.20. Yeah.
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Publish $4.20. It makes me wonder if he was actually watching to see when that was the right thing to bid,
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that he could also make his other claims about the percentages that it went up.
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So what do you think the insiders at Twitter are doing right now? What do you think the people who run
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the algorithm are doing besides deleting everything and sabotaging the company? Now, wouldn't it be
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hilarious? Hilarious in a terrible way. It wouldn't be hilarious in a good way. But in a terrible way,
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you could sort of almost imagine the Twitter engineers taking down the whole company.
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You know, just like deleting the source code and, you know, completely getting rid of all the databases
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and stuff to hide whatever they may have wanted to hide, or possibly for political reasons. Maybe
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political reasons. They just don't want Elon Musk to have that much control over that kind of a
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platform. So I would really worry about employee sabotage. Wouldn't you? Now, here's the funny thing.
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What if Elon Musk simply wanted to destroy Twitter? What if that's all he wanted?
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Because Twitter might destroy itself just because he offered to buy it, which would be the funniest
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thing that ever happened. If he could destroy all of Twitter because he offered to buy it,
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and then let's say they say no. So let's say the engineers are busily destroying the company from
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within so he doesn't get it. At the same time, the board is rejecting the offer. And if they reject
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the offer, Elon will sell his 9%. So you can imagine a case where Elon gets in for 9%, gets out for,
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you know, doesn't lose too much there on that transaction, destroys the entire company because
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they destroy itself to avoid being taken over. It's just gone. Now, I don't think I would be laughing
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about it because it wouldn't be good for me or any of you. But that kind of could happen.
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I wouldn't rule it out. Right? So one of the things that I, somehow I missed this. Maybe I saw it
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before and don't remember. But apparently when some, not too long ago, Elon Musk tweeted that San
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Francisco's homeless should be moved into Twitter's headquarters. And the thinking is that Twitter
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had gone remote. So if it's a remote company, and really the whole thing could be remote, you think,
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why doesn't Twitter headquarters become the place that has all the homeless? Now, is that not entertaining?
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entertaining? Is that not entertaining? That's entertaining. Here's something else entertaining.
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Max Boot, who you might recognize that name from being a, the Democrats Democrat. He's like the most
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Democrat you could possibly be. Max Boot. And his response to the story about Musk maybe buying
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Twitter is, I am frightened by the impact on society and politics if Elon Musk acquires Twitter. He seems
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to believe that on social media, anything goes. For democracy to survive, we need more content moderation,
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not less. What? Can you imagine doing a tweet in which you call for censorship, but you call it
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content moderation? And you think, you think that's a good look? Or that, or that the public's going to
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say, yeah, need more content moderation? Well, actually, probably Democrats do. I'll bet a lot of
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Democrats retweeted this and liked it. But here's what I would add. I wouldn't argue with moderation.
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I wouldn't argue with moderation. So actually, I would agree with the Max Boot. Better moderation
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would actually be better, but not censorship. So the better way to do it is to tag any provocative
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thing that looks wrong with a counterargument so that anybody who sees the wrong thing can
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somewhat immediately see the counterargument. You don't have to know what's wrong because a lot of
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us have made, let's say, predictions and whatnot that seemed wrong at one time that became right
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later. So Twitter doesn't need to decide what's right or wrong. They just show the other argument.
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That's all. Is that too hard? And do you think that Elon Musk doesn't see that that's the obvious way to
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go? Just put the counter there? Because that's the solution to free speech's excesses is the
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counterargument. Always has been. So if you just put the counterargument there, you're done.
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It isn't hard. Why do we always act like it's hard? This whole free speech argument, literally,
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we just act like it's hard. It couldn't be easier. The whole point of free speech is show both sides.
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That's it. The whole thing. And Elon Musk could easily do that. Just make sure there's an easy
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feature for tacking a good argument on the other side. That's all. I wouldn't use fact checkers in
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the usual way, for sure. All right. So here's another little irony that came out of this.
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Is it irony or am I using that word wrong? You decide. Am I using the word irony incorrectly?
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Because it sort of moved into common usage to mean just something that's weird and interesting.
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And I haven't decided if I'm going to go with a common usage yet. Instead of the, you know,
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wordplay kind of original use. But here's a real thing that's happening. Would you agree with the
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following statements that the worry about climate change was a big factor in Tesla's success?
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Is that fair to say? That a lot of the people who bought Teslas and electric cars in general
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were probably the people most concerned about climate change? Because in some cases they would
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even pay a premium. They'd pay a premium for the Tesla. So it wasn't about money and it wasn't
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necessarily the best looking car. You know, there are lots of good cars that look good.
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But it really, I think, was about climate concerns. Wouldn't you say? It's funny. A lot of people on
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YouTube are saying no. You know, I'm not saying that everybody bought one for that reason.
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There are plenty of people who have Teslas just because they like the engineering.
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In fact, somebody said, and I agree with it, that originally maybe it was more about the climate,
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but today it's more about the good engineering. Would you buy that? Would you buy that originally
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it was more about the climate, but now it might be more about just it's a good car?
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But either way, my point will stand because the climate concerns certainly made Tesla successful.
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And then Elon Musk might use his fortune made from Tesla, that was based largely on climate change
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concerns, to destroy the left's control of the media, which promoted the narrative of climate
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disaster about... So did the left make Tesla successful enough that Musk could buy
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buy the thing that made them worry about climate change? And by the way, he's a climate change
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believer, so he's not on the other side of that. But it's kind of a weird outcome. Is it irony?
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Is it irony? Or is that the wrong word? Do you go with the popular usage? Or are you classicals?
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I'm still classical on that word. I got this idea from Chase McMichael on Twitter. His version was,
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what's so ironic, well, he likes the word, is many hard progressive Marxists are Tesla owners in the car
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and Tesla stocks, so they paid for this. It's very serendipitous. All right. So I think Sam McRoberts
00:18:08.360
tweeted a meme that's based on an Elon Musk quote from 2021. Right? So I'm going to ask for your help.
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So a number of you have been watching me for a long time. And I'm going to make a claim that's the
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kind of claim that a lot of you really hate. But I'll do it anyway, because I don't care.
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And so here's the quote from Elon Musk, and then wait for my point about it. And people are calling
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it Elon's law. And apparently he tweeted at one point last year that the most entertaining outcome,
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as seen from an external observer, not the participants, is the most likely. The most
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entertaining outcome is the most likely. Now, he said that in 2021. And it's called Elon's law.
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Have you heard me say that for the last five years?
00:19:07.740
And where have you heard it? Did I ever write it down? Because I'm trying to remember if it's in my
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book, Win Bigley. Is it in Win Bigley? Have I ever written it down? Yeah. So those who have been
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watching me for a while, if Elon said it in 2021, that would be maybe four years after I first started
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saying it? Five years after I've been saying it? Yeah. And I always talk about life imitating a movie
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and following the most entertaining outcome. And I use it to predict. That's why I talk about it a lot.
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So, that's the part you don't like when I ask questions like that. Because sometimes it might
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be true. Most of the time, probably not. Most of the time, probably just two people having the same
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idea. Somebody says, heard it from you, but I think you're recording someone else. No. No, I definitely
00:20:20.640
made that up. That's definitely from me. But here's the thing. Elon could have also come up with it
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independently. And here's the argument for that. Because he's also a believer that we're in a
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simulation. If you believe we live in a simulation, then the next logical question is, why? Like,
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why are we here? If we're simulated, who made us and for what purpose? And one of the obvious
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purposes could be entertainment. It's just like a reality show that somebody watches in a different
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universe. And so, that would explain. Now, how often have you heard me say that I get a plot twist
00:21:03.300
every day? Every day. Again, yesterday. There's this one through story in my life that I get a plot
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twist, like a completely unexpected thing on a left field every single day. One a day. And it
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just never stops. Even when I talk about it, it doesn't stop. Like, you'd think that talking
00:21:23.660
about it would make you stop. But it doesn't. Yesterday, plot twist. Every single day.
00:21:34.500
So, and maybe some of you see that in your own lives. Anyway, so the Elon Musk story is
00:21:41.740
hilarious. But this thing about the most entertaining outcomes, and I especially like the fact that
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everything about Elon offering to buy Twitter is hilarious.
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There might be somebody watching this live stream
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And that's all I'm going to say about this. I can see your fingerprints.
00:22:15.800
So, you know the story about the New York City subway shooter.
00:22:21.920
And I guess there's at least one major story that described his, I think, age and his height,
00:22:32.300
And the story is that he's literally a black supremacist racist who has, you know, videos
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and stuff on social media of him ranting and wanting to kill people and apparently wanting
00:22:46.600
to kill white people because he wanted to kill white people.
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So, and was it Greg Goffeld who was the first one to say this story is going to just disappear
00:23:00.880
That what are the odds that when Biden is in office
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there'd be one of the biggest or the biggest? I don't know.
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So, I don't, I try not to pay attention too much to mass shootings.
00:23:22.260
Is it the biggest mass murder thing under Biden?
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I mean, again, isn't this, I hate to say it because there's nothing entertaining,
00:23:41.480
no, there's nothing entertaining about all the people who got shot, right?
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So, if we can be on the same page that the tragedy has to be respected for the horrific nature of it,
00:23:54.320
but it's kind of the most entertaining outcome.
00:24:01.900
Now, some of it is because the most entertaining outcomes are the things that make it into our consciousness.
00:24:07.000
So, you just notice the ones that are entertaining because that's what you talk about.
00:24:14.300
So, there are definitely reasons that the most entertaining outcome is the most likely.
00:24:18.800
Now, the mechanism that I believe is that if all of us are thinking what would be the most entertaining outcome,
00:24:26.560
I think it's the society thinking that that could happen and it would be entertaining if it did,
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That would be really entertaining if it happened, right?
00:24:38.180
And I feel the fact that it is entertaining drives people toward that behavior
00:24:41.780
because they want to create entertainment for themselves,
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even if they're not thinking about it that way.
00:24:48.560
Now, why is somebody on Locals continuing to say CRT trainee over and over and over again?
00:25:08.680
So, I talk about the value of diversification all the time.
00:25:17.640
In other words, have lots of clients or customers,
00:25:22.620
So, if one fires you, you still have lots of bosses left, customers.
00:25:27.300
So, diversification works in everything, and skills as well.
00:25:32.580
If you diversify your skills and you do it wisely,
00:25:35.940
you can find skills that work together for your talent stack.
00:25:39.720
Now, here's another category I'm going to add to this
00:25:42.040
because you keep seeing this pattern everywhere.
00:25:47.560
that if you had a job and you belonged to a gym as a man,
00:26:02.680
So, you've got a good job, and you go to the gym.
00:26:10.440
Now, here's the second part of the advice I give you.
00:26:16.500
which I just saw a comment that made me forget,
00:26:20.460
So, here are the things that I would put together
00:26:35.660
That might be the best advice anybody ever gave you
00:26:55.980
You just control all the things you can control.
00:27:04.500
by learning new skills and applying for new jobs.
00:27:08.860
You know, there's a pretty well-defined process
00:27:17.080
but you definitely have control over your career.
00:27:29.960
Well, if you have a little bit of disposable income,
00:27:37.620
Now, here's where I don't follow my own advice.
00:27:49.100
So, you can wear, you know, ratty jeans and a T-shirt,
00:28:57.600
and something that looks like a plan to get there,
00:29:10.720
but control the hell out of everything you can control.
00:29:14.500
All right, I'm going to give you another really abusively,
00:29:28.540
and I've been trying to upgrade my footwear again,
00:29:34.380
But with fitness, I try to follow my own advice.
00:29:37.640
So, you know, lately I've been working on my bicep,
00:29:43.400
and this is something I can completely control, right?
00:29:59.180
So, I wouldn't recommend that you work on your sense of humor,
00:30:05.000
No, that's literally just going to the gym, like, more,
00:30:09.080
and having a personal trainer, which I recommend.
00:30:16.640
I exercised all my life without a personal trainer,
00:30:19.820
because I always looked at what they were doing with clients at the gym,
00:30:24.160
it looks like they're just standing next to the useful machine,
00:30:32.420
But when you actually have somebody who knows what they're doing,
00:30:35.000
work the muscles that are like the opposite muscles,
00:30:42.160
when somebody who knows what they're doing is telling you how to do it,
00:30:53.940
Would the NATO countries be better off with Putin or no Putin?
00:31:01.000
So, let's say the two options are Putin leaves office
00:31:09.000
Would we be better off with him or without him?
00:31:14.340
then the NATO countries can degrade Russia forever economically,
00:31:18.940
and then their military will be more pathetic than it is.
00:31:30.640
But are we better off just having Russia degraded
00:31:33.480
for, I don't know, another 10 years or 15 or 20,
00:31:39.480
Or would we be better off if they immediately replaced Putin
00:31:43.980
and then suddenly we don't have a rationale for the sanctions?
00:31:50.200
Because what if they put in somebody who's sort of Western-friendly?
00:32:04.540
You know, we keep talking in terms of, you know,
00:32:07.500
Putin has to go, and, you know, that's the right thing to say.
00:32:14.000
From a military perspective, we might be better off if he stays
00:32:17.640
because he's ruined Russia as an economic entity,
00:32:22.420
and that should degrade their military to the point of being irrelevant.
00:32:30.740
So I wouldn't be wishing too hard for him to leave
00:32:34.240
because, you know, I don't know if that's better.
00:32:37.480
Big story from the Ukraine war is that maybe Ukraine used a missile,
00:32:43.800
or it could have been, Russia says it, some kind of fire
00:32:48.080
on their biggest ship in the Black Sea, the Moskova.
00:32:54.340
a Slava-class cruiser, as I learned from Jack Posobiec tweets.
00:33:01.080
You should all be following Jack Posobiec, by the way.
00:33:11.000
that's relevant to the Ukraine situation at the moment.
00:33:22.220
So it looks like, probably, Ukraine took out their biggest ship.
00:33:43.340
Now, how much does that degrade their naval importance?
00:33:54.880
move your command in control and, I don't know,
00:34:03.340
It also might prevent them from moving another big ship in there,
00:34:21.820
but there's a possibility that this is a huge psychological blow,
00:34:42.200
oh, Russia's going to totally take over a cave in two days.
00:34:47.780
And then suddenly, uh-oh, this doesn't look good at all.
00:34:51.340
It looks like it could take forever, or not at all.
00:35:03.900
So you can be close to tipping points really quickly
00:35:25.220
and just mow down Ukraine and take their time, I guess.
00:35:48.040
that it doesn't work as a supply route anymore?