Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1715 Scott Adams： Elon Musk, Chomsky, Ukraine, More Provocation And Beverages

00:00:00.000 good morning everybody and you are in for a treat today I don't mean the

00:00:12.920 livestream I just mean it's gonna be an amazing day for you probably one of the

00:00:17.680 best ones you've ever had why because I said so he did you know the reality is

00:00:25.280 largely subjective and what that means is that however you think of reality is

00:00:32.600 for all practical purposes that's what it is for you and today your reality is

00:00:39.860 gonna be great better than yesterday and yesterday might have been pretty good

00:00:44.360 for for some of you some of you have your coffee ready or thinking you know

00:00:50.660 yesterday was pretty good pretty darn good others not so much but if you'd

00:00:58.220 like to take it to the ultimate level I'm talking extreme extreme goodness then

00:01:06.620 all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass or tank or chalice or slide a canteen

00:01:09.980 jug or flask a vessel of any kind except for a Russian missile cruiser fill it

00:01:16.980 with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled

00:01:24.120 pleasure it's the dopamine hit of the day it's the thing that makes you tingle can

00:01:28.320 you feel it you feel in the back of your neck right there yeah you can feel it a

00:01:33.480 little bit can't you it's called the simultaneous sip and it joins all of us in

00:01:38.340 unison in one big god-like experience go you know I wasn't expecting to feel

00:01:51.400 connected to the divine I thought it was just gonna be a really tasty cup of

00:01:56.100 coffee and one of the best days ever but I exceeded my expectations they were

00:02:03.800 pretty high Wow how about that well you know it goes well with the

00:02:09.780 simultaneous sip poison pills poison pills and beverages locals I was I was

00:02:17.900 suggested that maybe poison pills and coffee would be a good title for today's

00:02:23.520 live stream but here's the story so you may have heard already that Twitter has

00:02:30.440 adopted what's called the poison pill now for those of you who don't

00:02:35.360 understand economics and mergers and acquisitions and all the intricacies of

00:02:41.120 what companies can do for their back and forth I'd like to take a moment to

00:02:46.240 explain the economics of it blah blah blah

00:02:51.440 any questions well it seems that a poison pill would be any one of a number of

00:03:02.940 things that a company would implement a set of rules that would say should we be

00:03:09.160 bid on certain rules will go into play that would make it a bad idea for the

00:03:14.780 person trying to buy it to buy it so they've actually adopted a poison pill

00:03:21.500 which would dilute the shares if someone tries to buy them so in other words the

00:03:27.900 more you tried to buy the less it would change your that doesn't make sense right

00:03:33.720 but you try to buy more but they would dilute the stock so you're not owning more

00:03:37.540 more as a percentage so is that good for stockholders to have a whole rule that

00:03:47.440 would keep them from getting a 38 percent gain in one day yeah how many of the

00:03:54.680 stockholders are saying to themselves hey wait a minute wait a minute don't you

00:04:01.760 think now oh and by the way I I always forget to disclose but I do own Twitter

00:04:07.880 stock in this is a very small amount compared to you know as a percentage and

00:04:14.160 also Tesla so I do I do have a dog in the fight but it's more like a chihuahua

00:04:20.640 everybody cool with that right so I do have a chihuahua in the fight it doesn't 0.95

00:04:26.020 feel like it would have been enough to bias me but it probably does like I don't I

00:04:31.360 don't feel the bias but you have to assume it's there right what can you all agree with

00:04:37.000 this this statement I believe I'm giving you an honest internal opinion that doesn't

00:04:43.800 feel like my stock ownership in those two companies because it's not a big part of my

00:04:48.020 portfolio or anything it doesn't feel like it's changing my opinion but you know it is

00:04:53.380 don't you if you understand economics and you understand psychology you understand anything

00:05:00.700 about follow the money it doesn't really need to be that much money that's actually

00:05:07.240 the scariest part about follow the money the scariest part by far is it doesn't take much

00:05:13.900 if it's a lot of money you can guarantee bad behavior you know I've told you that a million

00:05:19.200 times anything with a lot of money at stake and there's any opportunity for somebody to get

00:05:24.100 at it oh it's going to happen just just a matter of time it's like elections you don't have to

00:05:31.140 wonder if elections have integrity and will always have integrity because there's a lot to gain

00:05:38.500 somebody's going to get at one you don't know if it's happened yet but yeah somebody's going to get

00:05:45.320 into one of those because people have the reason and the time and the incentive and sooner or later

00:05:51.360 somebody will have the skill um I don't even know where that came from something about a poison pill

00:05:57.320 but here's the defense against the poison pill I think now keep in mind that everything you hear

00:06:05.220 from this point on about this whole twitter Elon Musk purchase thing everybody talking about it

00:06:13.960 will be somebody who doesn't understand it because as soon as you get into the uh merger and

00:06:20.360 acquisition and then all of the the legal challenges that are possible around it and the poison pills and

00:06:26.640 stuff it's just a little bit more than the average journalist quay has a grasp on and even the business

00:06:35.760 journalists I think would be the most humble because they know the most so so here's something you can test

00:06:43.100 if you're watching the coverage if you're watching the people who are who are the business

00:06:48.120 journalists they know the most they will probably be the most humble about predicting what happens

00:06:54.620 because it's a little bit more unpredictable than the maybe regular journalists will say so just

00:07:02.340 something to watch for the more the more somebody knows about it the more humble they will be about

00:07:07.440 being able to predict it if I had to have I made a prediction yet about whether Musk will succeed

00:07:17.500 have I made that prediction

00:07:19.620 I guess I should right now for those of you new to my material if I make a prediction I like to make a

00:07:34.860 prediction based on something that I have some special insight about so in other words if it if it looks

00:07:41.720 like it's a mass hysteria then I feel like I could spot those better than other people because you know

00:07:48.920 background in hypnosis and I pay attention to that stuff etc but there are other situations and this is one of

00:07:55.100 a better problems in which you probably would want you know a lawyer somebody's worked in this space to be your better prognosticator but but I'm gonna play anyway so let's let's let's see what we can say about the situation without knowing much okay I'll boil it down to its simplest form you and I don't know what Elon Musk's options are

00:08:24.100 Do you think he does?

00:08:27.320 Do you think that Elon Musk has conceived of the entire toolbox of options?

00:08:34.920 You know, he's talked about an option B.

00:08:37.020 But don't you think he's talked about option A through F or G?

00:08:42.600 Because he's not us, right?

00:08:44.440 So you have to start with the assumption that whatever you and I and the business journalists say about this,

00:08:51.100 it's not how he's thinking.

00:08:52.500 And I'll say it again.

00:08:54.540 If any of us could think like him, well, we'd probably be doing a lot better than we're doing.

00:09:02.340 It would seem to suggest, if you're that smart, that you can second-guess him and you know what he's going to do.

00:09:09.880 Good for you.

00:09:11.440 You should be pretty rich by now.

00:09:15.420 But we don't know.

00:09:17.280 So, all right.

00:09:18.740 So I'm going to say some things that you all agree with.

00:09:22.920 All right.

00:09:23.300 So I'll give you some assumptions you agree with.

00:09:25.680 Assumption number one, Elon Musk would probably not go into this without having at least a strong intuition

00:09:33.500 that he has enough tools to get it done, and also that he anticipated, let's say, an obvious range of defenses.

00:09:43.860 The obvious defenses would be a poison pill.

00:09:46.320 So do you think he anticipated a poison pill?

00:09:52.300 It's Elon Musk, right?

00:09:54.580 It's not like the first time he's ever done anything.

00:09:58.120 It's like, do you think he didn't talk to anybody or doesn't have a lawyer, wouldn't have thought of it on his own, never heard of a poison pill?

00:10:04.920 No, it's inconceivable.

00:10:07.720 It's inconceivable that he did not consider that a likely possibility, which suggests that he has a defense.

00:10:16.200 And the defense is pretty clean.

00:10:17.780 He's offering so much that if the board rejects it or creates a poison pill, which is effectively rejecting it just in a different way.

00:10:28.960 So you just have to assume that Musk anticipated all this stuff, and that he thinks that he could win a court case

00:10:42.240 if the board does something that is clearly against the interests of the stockholders.

00:10:48.700 Now, to me, that would look like an easy win.

00:10:53.360 But do I know anything about this kind of lawsuit?

00:10:58.960 Nothing.

00:10:59.980 Nothing.

00:11:00.600 But if you ask me just commonsensically, do you think that turning down a 38% one-day gain in Twitter would be something the stockholders would want?

00:11:11.740 And by the way, Elon Musk is saying just put it up to a vote of the stockholders.

00:11:15.800 Musk is not even saying that he'll take the company no matter what.

00:11:22.200 Musk has actually said the stockholders, if they vote for a yes,

00:11:25.560 and I think if the stockholders at large voted against it, that he would probably conclude that they had judged it's not in their best interests.

00:11:36.520 And probably that would be the end of it.

00:11:39.060 I think.

00:11:39.580 So don't you think that Musk could win in court if he at least said you should have put it to the stockholders instead of the board deciding?

00:11:50.920 I think he could win that.

00:11:55.140 Or at least he'd have a good chance of winning it.

00:11:57.880 So, you know, maybe enough of a risk that it made sense as a risk management thing.

00:12:04.160 All right, then there's a bigger problem, and this from, I guess, a former SEC chair named Pitt, told Fox Business, Maria Baturoma.

00:12:18.180 He said, quote,

00:12:19.300 Well, my concern is that this administration is pretty much guaranteed to oppose this kind of bid.

00:12:24.560 In other words, he thinks that Congress or somebody and the government will try to stop it, some entity or multiple entities,

00:12:32.940 because it's just not the sort of thing that they're likely to support.

00:12:36.600 Now, do you think that Musk would have anticipated the Democrat, you know, parts of the government trying to stop him with government power?

00:12:50.420 Probably.

00:12:51.580 Right?

00:12:52.720 Wouldn't you think?

00:12:54.400 Now, I'm not saying that you and I would have thought of it, necessarily.

00:13:00.340 I mean, if I were in that position, would I have even thought of that?

00:13:04.540 I guess I would have had to.

00:13:05.700 And I would have been advised of it, and certainly somebody would have mentioned it, right?

00:13:09.940 It would have come up in conversation.

00:13:12.120 So, yeah, you have to assume he knows.

00:13:16.060 So, unless you believe that Musk has a plan that doesn't involve buying it, like some clever plan about pump and dump.

00:13:25.680 So, I would rule out pump and dump.

00:13:29.600 Would you agree with that assumption?

00:13:31.180 Some pump and dump, meaning that he buys some shares, he talks about what's going to happen, but he's not really serious about it.

00:13:39.240 And then the shares go up and he sells it at a profit and he, you know, gets out by making a billion dollars overnight.

00:13:45.360 I don't know if he needs another billion dollars.

00:13:47.640 Do you think he would take that hit to his brand and his, yeah, just his personal image?

00:13:55.240 Do you think he would take that hit for one billion dollars?

00:13:59.480 He's worth, what, over 200 billion?

00:14:01.760 I can't see him taking that half of 1% gain at the expense of basically the most valuable asset on the planet right now, which is his reputation.

00:14:14.140 I would argue that Musk's reputation is, I hate to say brand because it's overused, is probably worth more than his actual fortune because of the impact he can have on things because of the brand he has, basically.

00:14:28.660 So, if you assume that Musk has thought through all the options and you believe that he genuinely wants to take over the company, it's not some kind of a destroy the company play or make a quick buck.

00:14:47.040 I'm going to guess that he thinks he can beat all of these elements.

00:14:52.680 What do you think?

00:14:53.640 I'm going to say, I'm going to say if he thinks he can do it, do you want to bet against him?

00:15:01.440 Oh, let me put it this way.

00:15:03.400 I think it comes down to whether Musk himself believes he can get it done.

00:15:07.260 And he said publicly he wasn't sure.

00:15:10.200 Right?

00:15:10.460 So, he said himself, I think as recently as yesterday maybe, that he wasn't sure he could get it done.

00:15:17.660 But that's different than, yeah, and we don't know if plan B is another way to buy it, or if plan B is just going to the courts and saying,

00:15:26.600 hey, the board of directors is not pursuing their fiduciary responsibility, meaning that they're not doing their job.

00:15:33.340 That's just the big word for doing their job, of taking care of the stockholders.

00:15:43.140 Using hand in a sentence.

00:15:45.740 I don't know what that means.

00:15:46.980 All right.

00:15:47.240 Is it weird to think that we're talking, we're having a, like a serious conversation in public about whether the Democrat-led government will try to squash Elon Musk who is trying to promote free speech?

00:16:06.300 In other words, we're actually saying, matter-of-factly, that the government of the United States will act publicly, with no secret whatsoever, act publicly, to squash the biggest free speech movement of, since a long time, right?

00:16:28.520 Hasn't it been a long time since something this important to free speech was even a topic?

00:16:34.120 And the government itself would be the thing to shut it down?

00:16:39.700 Now, of course, they would make arguments that their, you know, they're, they would make arguments that their constituents would believe.

00:16:50.180 But to me, it would look exactly like the government trying to restrict speech.

00:16:58.000 What?

00:17:00.200 How is that okay?

00:17:01.340 That, that feels like the farthest thing from okay.

00:17:05.780 So, here's more to my prediction.

00:17:10.520 Who do you think the public is going to side with?

00:17:14.240 It's weird to even see that the Democrats took a solid swing as siding in favor of censorship, which they call moderation.

00:17:22.300 That they, they actually, they took a legitimate try to see if they could make a case for less free speech.

00:17:33.840 What?

00:17:35.640 Now, it doesn't, it seems a little desperate, doesn't it?

00:17:39.520 Like, if you're arguing against freedom of speech in the United States, because it's your best play?

00:17:44.640 They've been reduced to, that's their best play.

00:17:48.700 Well, you know, we've still got one thing we can do.

00:17:52.280 You know, everything's going badly, our policies look like a disaster, but we always have this thing we can do.

00:18:00.000 We can, I think we can get the public on our side by trying to restrict free speech.

00:18:05.800 That's it?

00:18:07.380 That's your strategy?

00:18:08.840 That's literally their plan.

00:18:12.000 And my work, who knows?

00:18:15.460 There was a little back and forth with Musk and a Reddit, I don't know if he's the CEO or prior CEO.

00:18:23.080 Maybe it's prior, I can't, his last name is Yishin.

00:18:27.540 Somebody will tell you in the comments.

00:18:29.280 Anyway, he's a big deal in the tech world and from Reddit in particular.

00:18:34.860 And he did this long thread, which I loved in one sense, that he sees clearly the two movies and he's calling it out.

00:18:45.800 And here's something that actually surprised me.

00:18:48.680 So see if you can even believe that this is true.

00:18:52.560 I'm going to say I do believe it's true, because it's not really something you lie about.

00:18:56.860 He's giving his personal report.

00:19:00.460 And he says, all my left-wing woke friends are convinced that the social media platforms uphold the white supremacist, misogynistic patriarchy, and they have plenty of screenshots and evidence.

00:19:13.940 In other words, the people on the left are having an identical experience to the people on the right, which is, hey, why are they only censoring things that agree with me?

00:19:24.060 Now, I spend, you know, as much time in a bubble as anybody else.

00:19:31.340 Like, I would love to tell you I'm the guy who can go from bubble to bubble, but I'm not.

00:19:37.320 I'm not sure anybody can.

00:19:39.600 So I didn't know this was going on.

00:19:42.820 Did you?

00:19:43.200 And I think it has to do with just the way they talk about it.

00:19:48.560 In their world, there's, you know, too much, you know, racist, Nazi, misogynist, anti-LGBTQ stuff, because there would always be too much.

00:19:59.180 Wouldn't there?

00:20:00.740 There would always be too much.

00:20:02.260 Like, what's the right amount?

00:20:04.520 If you don't like it, what's the right amount of it?

00:20:06.620 The right amount is none.

00:20:07.560 Of course there's too much.

00:20:08.460 So it makes perfect sense, you know, once he points it out, so I admit I was somewhat blind to it, but it makes perfect sense that the people on the left are convinced that the platforms are biased against them, while the people on the right have their own good examples.

00:20:27.460 And apparently there are good examples on both sides.

00:20:29.920 But I don't think they're talking about exactly the same thing, right?

00:20:33.120 When the left is talking about stuff, they're talking about really stuff closer to hate speech.

00:20:41.500 But when the right is getting banned, it tends to be a little bit more opinion-related, it seems to me.

00:20:48.400 I don't know.

00:20:49.460 Maybe that's my bubble, too.

00:20:51.820 So don't pay attention to that.

00:20:54.280 All right, let's talk about that big missile cruiser, the flagship of the Russian Baltic.

00:21:00.380 And it sunk, the guy hit, I guess the U.S. is saying that Ukraine hit it with two Neptune missiles.

00:21:08.520 Two.

00:21:09.840 Now, how many do you think they fired?

00:21:15.140 You know, isn't that like a key question?

00:21:18.080 What if they only fired two?

00:21:21.020 And they both hit the flagship?

00:21:24.700 How good are these missiles?

00:21:27.300 And let me ask you this.

00:21:28.440 How often or how recently, besides this conflict, have Neptune missiles actually been used in conflict?

00:21:36.500 Can anybody answer that?

00:21:38.420 Because I don't know how you could stop them.

00:21:43.820 Apparently Russia, their flagship, didn't have any countermeasures.

00:21:48.700 Because if they only fired two, somebody says never, and that feels like the right answer, doesn't it?

00:21:54.700 Yeah, yeah, Falklands was an exoset.

00:21:58.300 But aren't these types of missiles kind of really likely to hit where you aim them?

00:22:05.360 And they're hard to stop?

00:22:06.860 I mean, compared to, I think, yeah, so people are saying Neptune's brand new.

00:22:11.600 So three to 10% failure rate.

00:22:15.320 And then that would be mostly mechanical, right?

00:22:17.380 That wouldn't even be based on countermeasures.

00:22:20.160 Am I right?

00:22:21.700 That if you're looking at the Neptune failing, it's probably not because it got shot down.

00:22:28.240 Probably not.

00:22:29.960 All right.

00:22:30.280 So we're always guessing on some of the military stuff here.

00:22:33.360 So keep in mind that I don't know anything about the military.

00:22:36.060 So, you know, do your own fact-checking on that stuff.

00:22:41.020 Russia is still saying it was an onboard fire.

00:22:44.460 At the same time that their state TV is saying that there must be retaliation for the missiles that sunk it

00:22:51.620 in the explosion that was not caused by the missiles that sunk it because it was an onboard fire.

00:22:59.500 So the onboard fire that sunk it, not caused by missiles, there should be some revenge for it, the state TV says.

00:23:10.940 And maybe, you know, it could get bad and maybe an attack on NATO or the United States

00:23:15.140 because of the missiles that were fired that weren't fired because really no missiles hit.

00:23:20.760 It was an onboard fire.

00:23:23.580 That's actually what the Russian public is being told.

00:23:25.940 Literally both things at the same time, that it was a fire and that there ought to be some revenge for that fire.

00:23:35.200 What?

00:23:39.840 All right.

00:23:44.600 The biggest impact of that Moskva sinking I don't think will be on Ukraine.

00:23:50.140 I'm not sure it makes that much difference.

00:23:51.580 So militarily, probably not that much of a difference.

00:23:55.940 Apparently, the missile cruiser was used to fire missiles that could have been fired from land.

00:24:02.560 So it was just another way to fire missiles that Russia has plenty of, apparently. 0.51

00:24:06.460 So it shouldn't make any difference in firepower.

00:24:09.220 It probably doesn't make that much difference in command and control, I would think.

00:24:14.540 I don't know.

00:24:14.960 Maybe there's somebody who's a naval expert,

00:24:17.500 but I didn't see anything in the news about them losing some kind of command structure.

00:24:23.160 I only saw that they lost a lot of missiles that they could replace from land-based missiles.

00:24:28.940 So it probably doesn't make that much difference militarily.

00:24:31.500 It might make some difference in terms of morale or getting the Russian public all riled up.

00:24:36.040 But by far, the biggest impact is probably China noticing that you can't stop a Neptune missile.

00:24:44.920 And if China wants to take Taiwan, it's going to have to do it with some boats. 0.99

00:24:51.580 And do you know what Taiwan is stockpiling?

00:24:54.940 Because Taiwan has money, and they're not dumb, and they're good at planning ahead,

00:24:59.320 and they know exactly what the risks are.

00:25:01.040 Do you know how many Neptune missiles are heading for Taiwan right now?

00:25:06.420 I don't know either, but it's not two.

00:25:10.340 I'll bet it's something like a shell load.

00:25:14.640 And couldn't that make Taiwan essentially unconquerable?

00:25:19.900 I mean, it could be bombed into rubble, but do you think China would do that? 0.90

00:25:24.200 Do you think China would bomb into rubble Taiwan?

00:25:26.380 I mean, I suppose, you know, we get used to, if somebody says yes, I suppose anything's possible.

00:25:33.580 I mean, a lot of people didn't see Ukraine coming, but a lot of people did.

00:25:37.160 A lot of people did.

00:25:39.000 All right.

00:25:43.940 What a day.

00:25:44.720 So, there's more stories about the war crimes and the places that the Russians occupied,

00:25:53.580 and there's more credible stories coming out of there.

00:25:57.600 But I'm not doubting that there were war crimes. 1.00

00:26:01.640 But it's a little suspicious that they only happen on one side.

00:26:05.260 I don't know what to do with that.

00:26:09.440 Because when it's so obvious that you're being fed a narrative as opposed to anything that looks like news,

00:26:15.860 how are you supposed to take sides exactly?

00:26:19.520 Like, how do you take sides?

00:26:21.680 Like, it just feels like there's a lot of bad people doing a lot of bad things over there.

00:26:27.780 But here's my thing.

00:26:33.040 Here's a little mental experiment.

00:26:35.260 Imagine, let's go back 10 years, just randomly 10 years.

00:26:41.120 Do you think that the CIA, 10 years ago, would have started a, let's say, a civil war in Russia if they could?

00:26:50.520 Or a revolution or a civil war.

00:26:52.680 Do you think the CIA would have done that if they could?

00:26:56.980 I feel like they would.

00:26:59.160 Now, do you think that Russia would have tried to turn the United States against each other

00:27:04.000 in some sort of a civil war if it could?

00:27:07.860 If it could.

00:27:08.580 Do you think Putin would try that if he could?

00:27:13.240 Probably yes.

00:27:13.980 Because we saw in the 2016 election cycle that Russia did seem to, like, promote some Black Lives Matter activities,

00:27:25.480 you know, like fake ones that looked like they were just designed to cause conflict.

00:27:29.120 You know, as if they just wanted to cause trouble, sort of a civil war.

00:27:33.260 So, would we agree that both the United States and Russia, if they could, would create a civil war for the other?

00:27:41.140 Everybody on board with that?

00:27:43.300 If they could.

00:27:44.260 I don't think anybody disagrees, right?

00:27:48.260 All right.

00:27:49.340 Now, that brings me to looking at the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

00:27:55.140 Am I wrong that, from my perspective, it's a bunch of Russian-looking people?

00:28:02.100 Sometimes they speak Russian, sometimes not.

00:28:04.020 But it's a bunch of Russian-looking people fighting a bunch of Russian-looking people in an area that is maybe Russian, maybe not.

00:28:11.700 But some part of them thinks it's not, and it's its own nation.

00:28:14.960 But some of the others think it should be part of that nation.

00:28:17.780 Isn't that exactly a civil war?

00:28:21.020 That's exactly a civil war.

00:28:23.480 Because there's always one part of the civil war that thinks they need to be an independent nation, right?

00:28:27.940 And then the other side says, no, you're not.

00:28:29.520 You're really more like us than not.

00:28:33.360 And there's some reason we have to be together.

00:28:36.340 So did the United States, with its control over NATO and maybe with their willingness,

00:28:46.460 did we create a civil war in Russia?

00:28:50.400 It's just that we're using Ukraine as an allegedly independent country.

00:28:54.460 Because, you know, it is treated that.

00:28:57.180 I'm not going to say allegedly.

00:28:58.300 Let me be very clear.

00:29:01.320 Ukraine is a sovereign country by all the normal rules of things.

00:29:06.340 It is a country.

00:29:07.820 I'm just saying that that distinction may have blinded us to the fact it sure looks like somebody created a civil war in Russia 0.53

00:29:17.980 but disguised it as a conflict across borders when it just looks like somebody created a civil war.

00:29:24.540 Because it's hard to explain everything that got us to this point unless it was intentional.

00:29:31.920 Now, we don't know that.

00:29:33.440 Do I have any evidence of that?

00:29:34.780 No, no.

00:29:35.740 So I'm just saying the only thing I can say is if you're looking at it completely objectively,

00:29:40.300 like if you were an alien from another planet and you just came down and said, look, we're just going to give you the facts

00:29:47.180 and you don't have any biases because you're from another planet and we're going to describe what Ukraine is without calling it a nation.

00:29:55.000 Then we're going to describe what Russia is and then we're going to say, does that look like sort of a civil war?

00:30:02.360 And does it look like maybe the United States did a number of things which, in retrospect, look like they contributed to this war?

00:30:13.420 It does look like that, doesn't it?

00:30:15.780 But that doesn't mean it is that.

00:30:17.860 Because remember, I just got done talking about how half of the country sees one movie about social platforms are biased one way

00:30:25.320 and the other sees the other movie.

00:30:26.660 I'm just saying that there's a whole movie we're not watching.

00:30:30.020 The movie we're not watching is the one that has the magic trick.

00:30:34.940 And the magic trick is Ukraine, that's its own country. 0.99

00:30:39.020 And by the way, it is its own country.

00:30:41.380 Let me be completely clear.

00:30:43.720 It's a sovereign country that was attacked by Russia.

00:30:47.800 But wow, does it on another level sort of look like we promoted a civil war in a Russia-ish area?

00:30:56.000 Let me ask you, how many of you hear that framing for the first time and just said, holy shit?

00:31:07.920 Did anybody have that experience just now?

00:31:11.320 Because sometimes if you hear that, okay, I am seeing some yeses on that.

00:31:15.700 A lot of noes, because some of you were already there or don't buy the framing, I guess.

00:31:20.500 Yeah, a lot of yeses.

00:31:21.740 Now, for those of you who got yes, and it's maybe 20% of you or whatever.

00:31:26.380 It's not everybody.

00:31:29.620 Isn't it a total mindfuck to see that you can look at the same information

00:31:34.440 and that like an optical illusion, I can just tell you,

00:31:38.420 oh, it's not the ladies looking at each other, it's the flower or whatever. 0.65

00:31:43.480 And then suddenly your brain goes, and you can see the vases or vases or the flowers or whatever.

00:31:49.620 It's such like a, it can really play with your head when you realize how gaslit you could be.

00:31:57.120 It doesn't mean you are, but it allows you to imagine how easily you could be completely bamboozled.

00:32:04.620 And one of the things that I've said helps you understand the world is understanding magic tricks.

00:32:10.460 That doesn't sound like it makes sense, right?

00:32:16.140 But actual like stage magic.

00:32:19.080 And the reason is that if you spend enough time thinking about how tricks are done

00:32:23.580 and you learn how to do them yourself, you look for the diversion.

00:32:28.880 So when I look at politics, one of my just automatic filters is,

00:32:33.480 okay, what's the diversion to the magic trick?

00:32:36.200 It's not always there.

00:32:38.500 And maybe sometimes it misleads me to think there is one when there isn't.

00:32:42.140 So it could be a frame that misleads you as well.

00:32:45.040 But I feel as if thinking that things could be diversions

00:32:49.940 is a real healthy, productive way to look at any political situation.

00:32:55.700 Because it does feel like they're doing intentional diversions.

00:32:58.660 Well, we know that.

00:32:59.460 I mean, I'm not the person who discovered that.

00:33:02.660 But it just helps to always have that frame in mind.

00:33:07.100 Noam Chomsky, noted intellectual, provocative person on the left, I guess you'd say,

00:33:15.700 has an IQ of like 10,000.

00:33:19.720 He's very smart.

00:33:21.560 His IQ is 10,000.

00:33:23.440 Roughly, I don't know, rounding it up.

00:33:25.080 And he's getting a lot of pushback because he says the only way that the Ukraine-Russia thing gets settled

00:33:34.000 is with a negotiated settlement that Ukraine isn't going to like.

00:33:39.320 I mean, I'm paraphrasing way too much.

00:33:41.260 But basically, he's just saying that's the only way it ends.

00:33:43.760 It's not going to be like a military victory.

00:33:45.840 And he's getting pushback from that.

00:33:48.700 And I'm thinking, what's the pushback on that?

00:33:52.200 Does anybody have a different opinion?

00:33:56.020 Because even if one side sort of wins, it's not like they conquered the other country.

00:34:02.520 It just means that they beat their military down to the point where one wants to talk.

00:34:07.120 But now here's something that you can take into your daily life.

00:34:11.860 This is like a super useful persuasion trick.

00:34:17.080 And this is what Chomsky is using.

00:34:19.240 And he's basically saying, and again, I'm going to over-paraphrase him,

00:34:24.440 so I hope I don't lose the essence.

00:34:27.440 But I think the essence of the argument is, if you know where it's going to end up,

00:34:31.900 why would you put up with all that pain to get there?

00:34:37.060 Like, you know where it's going to end up.

00:34:39.100 It's going to be this negotiated thing.

00:34:41.060 And yeah, I get that Russia likes to negotiate and fight at the same time.

00:34:45.860 So, you know, if they get a battlefield win at the same time they're negotiating,

00:34:51.260 that's a little good.

00:34:52.480 But if their missile cruiser flagship ship gets sunk,

00:34:56.720 well, maybe that's a little bad negotiating position.

00:34:59.220 But the Russians like to fight and negotiate at the same time.

00:35:03.020 Well, I don't know that it's going to make that much difference, is it?

00:35:06.200 And this is what Chomsky was saying.

00:35:07.920 If you know where it's going to end up, you might as well just start now.

00:35:13.900 Just get it over with.

00:35:15.720 But people can't put themselves in that mindset.

00:35:18.980 Now, here's where this helps you in the real world.

00:35:22.720 You find yourself in, let's say, an argument with a spouse.

00:35:26.720 But you know from your history that you're going to get over it.

00:35:31.020 It'll probably take two days.

00:35:32.760 And you've been through the cycle before.

00:35:36.200 You'll be mad for a night.

00:35:37.800 You'll be better tomorrow.

00:35:38.900 Whatever it is.

00:35:40.060 But if you know where it's going,

00:35:42.300 have you ever said this to your loved one, spouse, family member,

00:35:45.460 just co-worker, somebody important to you?

00:35:48.140 Have you ever said, all right, you know where this is going to end?

00:35:51.480 In two days, we're going to be over it.

00:35:54.000 Because we always are.

00:35:55.600 And we're going to say, well, that wasn't that important,

00:35:57.240 but we were in a bad mood.

00:35:59.040 Why don't we just go there now?

00:36:00.080 And you should see what people say when you say that to them.

00:36:04.300 It's almost like you time-traveled.

00:36:06.580 Because if they also know, yeah, that's where it's going to go.

00:36:10.600 Because it always does.

00:36:12.240 You can actually sometimes get people to think themselves into that future

00:36:17.660 and then negotiate as though the future is already here.

00:36:21.520 In other words, making them imagine, you know where it's going to end.

00:36:25.500 This is very similar to life, exactly.

00:36:27.400 So in the comments, exactly at the time I was going to say it.

00:36:30.400 It's very similar to the life is short.

00:36:33.280 And actually, you can use them at the same time.

00:36:35.880 Look, should we spend 48 hours being mad at each other

00:36:39.280 when life is short, pleasure is rare,

00:36:44.240 we know that in two days we're going to be right with each other,

00:36:47.580 why don't we start now?

00:36:49.740 Now, that's never worked instantly in my experience.

00:36:52.820 It doesn't change anybody right around.

00:36:55.780 But I feel like it makes a difference.

00:36:58.720 I feel like it at least changes the tone of things.

00:37:01.220 If you make them think toward the inevitability of it being over

00:37:06.000 and not mattering in the long run.

00:37:07.660 And this is also related to the,

00:37:09.500 are you going to be thinking this on your deathbed?

00:37:12.180 That one I use all the time.

00:37:14.140 It's really good.

00:37:14.840 Just say to anybody, especially if they're younger,

00:37:18.780 the younger they are, the more ridiculous it is

00:37:21.080 that they can imagine this would matter when they died.

00:37:25.000 And if it's not important when you die,

00:37:26.800 it's probably not that important right now.

00:37:32.060 So there's your personal advice for the day.

00:37:36.280 And that's why you come.

00:37:39.000 Is it for the coffee and the simultaneous sip?

00:37:40.820 Is it for the great camaraderie that we experience?

00:37:47.020 Maybe it's all of that.

00:37:51.820 And that is only one of the things I was going to say.

00:37:56.780 I thought that was the end of my notes.

00:37:58.420 But hey, what?

00:37:58.940 There's lots more.

00:38:00.840 So CNN does this thing that I am so fascinated by

00:38:05.680 because it works.

00:38:06.700 which is they'll print a story that's factual

00:38:11.000 and I'll read it as far as I know.

00:38:13.500 I'll read it and I'll say,

00:38:14.300 oh, that looks like completely unbiased reporting.

00:38:18.540 And then I'll look at the headline

00:38:20.200 or the first sentence.

00:38:23.280 Like, you know, the introductory sentence.

00:38:25.400 Those are the things people actually remember

00:38:27.020 because people don't really finish articles.

00:38:29.700 I don't know if you know that.

00:38:31.020 We kind of get the gist of it

00:38:32.580 and then go to the next thing

00:38:33.780 and get the gist of that.

00:38:35.200 That's the way people consume most things.

00:38:38.020 And so when CNN does this trick

00:38:40.800 where the title or the first sentence

00:38:42.780 doesn't match at all to the content,

00:38:45.500 I always laugh because it works.

00:38:48.340 Like, it's so bold.

00:38:51.460 It's so icky.

00:38:54.680 But it works.

00:38:55.880 So it's like a serial killer

00:38:57.620 who gets away with it for a long time.

00:39:01.000 You know, of course,

00:39:01.580 I want them to be caught and punished

00:39:03.040 and, you know, I feel bad for the victims,

00:39:05.820 of course.

00:39:07.160 But I also think,

00:39:08.220 well, that's a good serial killer.

00:39:10.140 That is someone who knows how to do his job.

00:39:12.520 And when I see somebody who can do their job well,

00:39:15.380 even if it's not a job I need,

00:39:18.020 I still have some respect

00:39:19.700 for the hard work and that.

00:39:22.400 So where I was going on this

00:39:24.420 is there's a story on CNN's site

00:39:26.460 about the text messages

00:39:29.480 that have been surfaced

00:39:31.220 about the January 6th

00:39:33.180 the Republican allies of the president.

00:39:36.700 So the allies were GOP,

00:39:38.540 you know, Mike Lee and Mark Meadows,

00:39:40.320 and there were some texts going back and forth.

00:39:43.520 So let me tell you how CNN framed it,

00:39:46.300 and then I'll tell you

00:39:47.020 what the messages actually tell you.

00:39:49.680 Okay?

00:39:50.180 See if these look at all the same.

00:39:52.760 All right, CNN's framing is this.

00:39:55.060 Quote,

00:39:55.800 the messages reveal

00:39:57.020 how two GOP allies

00:39:58.820 of then President Trump

00:40:01.580 lobbied and encouraged the White House

00:40:03.540 in its effort to overturn the election.

00:40:07.500 So their framing is that the messages

00:40:09.660 show how they were lobbying

00:40:12.120 and encouraging the White House

00:40:13.800 in its efforts to overturn the election.

00:40:17.620 Now what does overturn the election

00:40:19.260 sound like to you?

00:40:21.760 Sort of like a coup or something,

00:40:25.060 doesn't it?

00:40:27.000 Now, it's not technically incorrect, is it?

00:40:30.720 Because those words,

00:40:32.780 if you just look to them

00:40:33.660 in their straight definition,

00:40:36.300 that is what the president

00:40:37.540 and his allies were trying to do.

00:40:39.960 They were, in fact,

00:40:41.020 trying to get a different result.

00:40:43.700 So I think they acknowledge that, right?

00:40:48.000 It is because they thought

00:40:49.100 the result was rigged.

00:40:51.560 So they thought the different result

00:40:53.620 would be justified.

00:40:55.040 They weren't randomly wanting

00:40:56.700 a different result

00:40:57.440 or just because they lost.

00:40:59.080 No evidence of that.

00:41:00.620 All right.

00:41:00.940 But when they say something like

00:41:02.200 their efforts to overturn the election,

00:41:05.100 doesn't your brain just translate that

00:41:06.820 into insurrection?

00:41:08.640 It does, doesn't it?

00:41:09.760 So now they've framed it

00:41:13.060 so my brain has translated it

00:41:14.920 into an insurrection.

00:41:16.480 And then they give us the content,

00:41:18.460 and I appreciate that.

00:41:19.900 That was actually interesting to read.

00:41:22.120 So you can actually see the exchanges.

00:41:24.300 And the exchanges very clearly,

00:41:26.340 very clearly,

00:41:28.060 indicate that both people

00:41:29.600 thought the election

00:41:31.160 was genuinely sketchy,

00:41:33.820 and they genuinely just wanted

00:41:36.320 to make sure it had time

00:41:37.440 to get audited.

00:41:39.060 That's what the messages say.

00:41:40.660 In other words,

00:41:41.760 the messages are totally exculpatory,

00:41:45.700 completely.

00:41:47.800 It's completely explaining

00:41:50.620 that the people involved

00:41:51.980 were not involved in an insurrection.

00:41:54.480 They were involved in,

00:41:56.280 according to their many texts

00:41:58.000 back and forth,

00:41:59.380 trying to stop one,

00:42:01.560 very clearly.

00:42:02.260 They're trying to stop

00:42:04.340 a stolen election.

00:42:06.120 There's not one thing

00:42:07.480 in any of these texts

00:42:08.500 to suggest that they don't

00:42:10.260 genuinely believe

00:42:11.580 there's at least something

00:42:13.040 that needs to be looked into.

00:42:14.980 Right?

00:42:15.320 I mean, they're not magic,

00:42:16.500 so they don't know what happened.

00:42:18.100 But the way they talk about it

00:42:19.520 is very, very clear

00:42:21.400 that these two people

00:42:23.080 and their allies

00:42:24.180 genuinely believe

00:42:25.940 this result looked too sketchy

00:42:28.420 to be credible.

00:42:29.660 and that they were trying

00:42:31.420 to fix not only

00:42:32.400 the credibility of the system,

00:42:34.340 but to get the right answer

00:42:35.660 as they saw it.

00:42:37.020 And they even made,

00:42:38.460 I forget which one of them,

00:42:39.800 but it doesn't matter

00:42:40.420 in this context,

00:42:41.620 even made the,

00:42:42.900 maybe I wrote it down.

00:42:48.280 Yeah, they're talking about

00:42:49.580 approaching it firmly

00:42:50.560 and intelligently,

00:42:52.880 being compatible,

00:42:54.580 completely compatible

00:42:55.440 with the Constitution.

00:42:56.400 All right, this is from Mike Lee,

00:42:58.080 right?

00:42:59.040 He says,

00:42:59.900 Mike Lee said in a text message,

00:43:02.180 I don't purport to know

00:43:03.180 who fits into which category.

00:43:05.140 I know only that this will not end,

00:43:07.620 that this will end badly

00:43:09.080 for the President

00:43:09.860 unless we have the Constitution

00:43:12.240 on our side.

00:43:13.960 And unless these states

00:43:15.340 submit new slates, blah, blah, blah.

00:43:16.760 So in other words,

00:43:17.400 unless everything is constitutional,

00:43:21.360 this is a bad idea.

00:43:23.040 That's what the alleged

00:43:25.660 insurrectionists were saying.

00:43:28.560 These guys have been painted

00:43:29.780 as insurrectionists

00:43:31.200 and then in their own words

00:43:32.880 are saying,

00:43:34.180 we damn well better be compatible

00:43:36.200 with the Constitution.

00:43:38.200 And it doesn't sound to me

00:43:39.560 he's saying,

00:43:40.240 let's be weasels

00:43:40.960 with the Constitution.

00:43:42.660 That's not there.

00:43:44.500 It looks like these people

00:43:45.780 want to be absolutely

00:43:46.840 straight down the line.

00:43:48.660 If it's constitutional,

00:43:50.780 we should make sure

00:43:51.800 that these elections

00:43:52.620 were done right

00:43:53.860 because they don't look it.

00:43:55.620 Now, is that not

00:43:57.020 exactly their fucking job?

00:44:02.120 Would you want

00:44:04.080 members of Congress

00:44:05.400 of either side,

00:44:06.940 suppose this had gone

00:44:07.860 the other way.

00:44:09.480 Suppose the Democrats

00:44:10.640 in Congress

00:44:11.540 had legitimately believed

00:44:13.100 that the election

00:44:14.380 was rigged

00:44:15.800 because it just looked like it.

00:44:18.580 Would you be disappointed

00:44:20.100 in Democrat leaders

00:44:21.440 of Congress

00:44:22.020 if you saw their text messages

00:44:24.340 and you saw that

00:44:25.680 they were legitimately,

00:44:27.420 legitimately trying

00:44:28.900 to follow the Constitution

00:44:30.060 and look into something

00:44:31.940 that looked like

00:44:32.600 maybe in this hypothetical,

00:44:35.060 Republican mischief,

00:44:36.720 and it just would take

00:44:37.520 two days,

00:44:38.540 let's just find out

00:44:39.320 if the election

00:44:39.840 was credible.

00:44:41.200 I would support

00:44:42.140 those Congress people.

00:44:44.420 Would you?

00:44:44.800 If you knew

00:44:47.840 in their own words,

00:44:48.980 their own words,

00:44:50.100 so there's no doubt

00:44:50.980 about what they were thinking

00:44:52.080 because there's

00:44:52.960 a long exchange,

00:44:55.080 if you saw

00:44:55.880 their own thinking

00:44:56.820 that they were trying

00:44:58.020 to save the Republic,

00:44:59.700 stay true

00:45:00.220 to the Constitution,

00:45:01.700 and fix what could be

00:45:02.880 one of the biggest problems

00:45:03.980 the Republic

00:45:05.300 has ever faced,

00:45:06.300 which is a sketchy election

00:45:08.280 that looks sketchy.

00:45:10.000 Maybe we've had ones

00:45:11.020 in the past

00:45:11.600 that were sketchy

00:45:13.300 and we didn't know it,

00:45:13.960 but this one

00:45:15.000 looks sketchy.

00:45:16.800 That's different.

00:45:18.400 If you ignore one

00:45:19.600 that looks sketchy,

00:45:21.200 you have some explaining

00:45:22.280 to do

00:45:22.680 because you didn't

00:45:23.540 get elected

00:45:24.040 to ignore big problems.

00:45:26.480 You got elected

00:45:27.540 to do exactly

00:45:28.460 what Mike Lee

00:45:29.220 was trying to do.

00:45:30.760 Exactly that.

00:45:31.900 Make sure the election

00:45:32.700 was fair.

00:45:34.280 Mike Lee should get

00:45:35.080 some kind of award

00:45:36.080 for this.

00:45:37.480 And CNN is like

00:45:38.780 throwing them

00:45:39.260 into the insurrectionist

00:45:40.500 bucket

00:45:40.840 with their

00:45:42.040 overturn the election

00:45:43.080 rhetoric.

00:45:43.960 But already

00:45:44.840 it's softening,

00:45:45.640 isn't it?

00:45:47.560 Already it's softening

00:45:48.780 because they didn't

00:45:50.660 use the word

00:45:51.240 insurrection.

00:45:53.060 And I feel like

00:45:54.120 that's new.

00:45:56.140 Do you think

00:45:56.980 you could have used

00:45:57.720 the word insurrection

00:45:58.640 in an article

00:45:59.980 in which all

00:46:00.980 of the content

00:46:01.600 of the article

00:46:02.460 proved it wasn't one?

00:46:05.140 At least in terms

00:46:06.040 of these GOP allies.

00:46:07.660 They were clearly

00:46:08.200 not insurrectionists.

00:46:10.020 Clearly.

00:46:10.300 So this is just

00:46:14.580 mind-boggling

00:46:15.280 that the entire

00:46:16.860 thing,

00:46:18.320 at least in terms

00:46:18.920 of the Republican

00:46:19.740 allies of the

00:46:20.560 president,

00:46:21.400 is completely

00:46:22.160 shown to be

00:46:23.080 exactly what

00:46:24.720 we hired them

00:46:25.420 to do.

00:46:25.900 And I would

00:46:27.260 say that

00:46:27.800 if these had

00:46:28.400 been Democrats

00:46:29.180 doing the same

00:46:29.780 thing in the

00:46:30.200 other direction.

00:46:30.960 That is what

00:46:31.660 we hired them

00:46:32.240 to do.

00:46:34.940 It's just

00:46:35.540 mind-boggling.

00:46:36.080 I saw one

00:46:39.840 military expert

00:46:40.620 say that

00:46:42.280 Putin doesn't

00:46:43.160 want to

00:46:43.800 necessarily

00:46:44.600 capture the

00:46:45.560 capital and

00:46:46.420 take over all

00:46:47.320 of Ukraine.

00:46:48.220 What he wants

00:46:48.940 to do is

00:46:49.360 destroy the

00:46:50.320 Ukrainian armed

00:46:51.700 forces.

00:46:53.020 And I thought

00:46:53.920 to myself,

00:46:54.680 why would that

00:46:55.860 be a goal?

00:46:57.540 Does that even

00:46:58.060 make sense?

00:46:59.660 It makes sense

00:47:00.860 for the Ukrainians

00:47:02.020 to destroy the

00:47:03.020 Russian armed

00:47:03.660 forces.

00:47:04.120 because that

00:47:05.440 would likely

00:47:06.040 cause them

00:47:06.580 to retreat

00:47:07.260 and maybe

00:47:07.940 not try it

00:47:08.600 again.

00:47:09.720 Right?

00:47:10.420 I'm not a

00:47:11.260 military expert,

00:47:12.220 but to me it

00:47:13.240 seems that it

00:47:14.320 would make sense

00:47:15.100 for Ukraine to

00:47:15.860 try to win

00:47:16.380 outright.

00:47:18.260 But suppose

00:47:18.860 Russia won

00:47:19.760 outright, but

00:47:20.560 the only thing

00:47:21.240 they were going

00:47:21.780 for was to

00:47:22.980 destroy the

00:47:23.780 Ukrainian military.

00:47:25.660 And then

00:47:26.120 what?

00:47:27.040 Pull back? 0.64

00:47:28.600 Does that even

00:47:29.460 make sense?

00:47:30.780 Because if all

00:47:31.800 they did was

00:47:32.280 destroy the

00:47:32.840 Ukrainian military,

00:47:33.620 but they

00:47:34.040 don't take

00:47:35.120 control of

00:47:35.620 the country,

00:47:36.920 wouldn't the

00:47:37.800 Ukrainian military

00:47:39.080 reconstitute?

00:47:41.640 And wouldn't

00:47:42.280 they have

00:47:42.560 better stuff

00:47:43.240 than last

00:47:43.760 time?

00:47:44.940 And wouldn't

00:47:45.480 it be more

00:47:46.220 NATO friendly

00:47:47.000 than ever?

00:47:48.660 Like how in

00:47:49.240 the world

00:47:49.680 does this

00:47:51.380 opinion make

00:47:51.960 sense?

00:47:53.360 It might

00:47:53.820 make sense.

00:47:54.400 By the way,

00:47:55.600 this is exactly

00:47:56.480 the kind of

00:47:56.960 topic you

00:47:57.480 should approach

00:47:58.700 with maximum

00:47:59.980 humility.

00:48:01.320 Hard for me

00:48:02.040 to do, I

00:48:02.600 know, but

00:48:03.340 maybe easier

00:48:04.000 for you.

00:48:06.220 But do you

00:48:07.140 think we have

00:48:07.580 any idea

00:48:08.020 what's going

00:48:08.440 on over

00:48:08.760 there?

00:48:09.120 This is an

00:48:09.820 expert who

00:48:10.720 I would

00:48:11.180 acknowledge seems

00:48:12.440 to have the

00:48:13.020 resume of an

00:48:13.980 actual expert.

00:48:15.040 And I don't

00:48:15.740 even understand

00:48:16.340 this.

00:48:17.180 Like it doesn't

00:48:17.620 even make

00:48:17.940 sense like on

00:48:18.860 a logical

00:48:19.300 level.

00:48:20.280 Like what

00:48:20.700 would be the

00:48:21.360 point of any

00:48:21.780 of that?

00:48:22.420 To destroy

00:48:23.160 the military

00:48:23.800 and go home?

00:48:24.420 And that's

00:48:27.800 what passes

00:48:28.260 for expert

00:48:28.960 opinion.

00:48:29.880 But again,

00:48:30.700 if we're

00:48:31.380 realistic,

00:48:32.200 maybe that is

00:48:32.780 a good

00:48:32.980 opinion.

00:48:33.380 I just

00:48:33.660 don't

00:48:33.860 understand it.

00:48:35.540 Well,

00:48:35.780 Biden's

00:48:36.200 support is

00:48:36.720 dropping fast

00:48:37.880 among young

00:48:38.680 people.

00:48:41.120 So I guess

00:48:42.100 millennials and

00:48:42.920 Generation Z,

00:48:44.660 he's going

00:48:45.380 for like 60%

00:48:46.360 support,

00:48:47.020 like 40%

00:48:47.880 support.

00:48:49.200 That's a

00:48:49.880 pretty big

00:48:50.260 drop.

00:48:51.680 From 60%

00:48:53.060 support to

00:48:54.380 40%

00:48:55.120 in young

00:48:56.240 people?

00:48:58.660 What?

00:49:00.740 And if

00:49:02.800 you're keeping

00:49:03.180 track,

00:49:05.200 President Biden

00:49:05.920 among all of

00:49:06.760 the different

00:49:07.100 demographic

00:49:07.680 groups,

00:49:08.400 you know,

00:49:08.580 if you're

00:49:08.780 looking at

00:49:09.100 Hispanics,

00:49:09.840 you're looking

00:49:10.160 at black

00:49:11.780 voters,

00:49:13.420 whatever group

00:49:14.000 you're looking

00:49:14.360 at,

00:49:15.180 I think he's

00:49:17.140 lost approval

00:49:17.920 in every

00:49:20.080 group.

00:49:21.980 I wonder

00:49:22.340 if that's

00:49:22.660 true.

00:49:23.840 Maybe he

00:49:24.240 has more

00:49:24.580 approval

00:49:24.940 in LGBTQ

00:49:25.880 or there

00:49:27.660 might be

00:49:27.960 some

00:49:28.140 demographic

00:49:28.620 group.

00:49:29.640 But I

00:49:30.000 feel like

00:49:30.540 how can

00:49:32.000 you lose

00:49:32.980 support in

00:49:33.520 just about

00:49:34.020 every group

00:49:34.600 except the

00:49:36.200 carers,

00:49:36.700 right?

00:49:37.200 Except women. 1.00

00:49:38.420 Is it

00:49:39.320 white college

00:49:41.260 educated women? 0.99

00:49:43.780 Yeah,

00:49:44.120 I think

00:49:44.560 that's,

00:49:45.880 you know,

00:49:46.220 I said

00:49:46.680 before that

00:49:47.280 it seems

00:49:47.680 like the

00:49:48.800 Democrats

00:49:49.300 will inevitably,

00:49:50.300 or already

00:49:51.260 have,

00:49:51.960 are the

00:49:52.340 party of

00:49:52.760 women 1.00

00:49:53.020 and the

00:49:55.100 Republicans

00:49:55.440 are the

00:49:56.100 party of

00:49:56.960 men.

00:49:57.860 Both,

00:49:58.400 of course,

00:49:58.780 will have

00:49:59.040 men and

00:49:59.340 women. 0.81

00:49:59.780 But in

00:50:00.620 terms of

00:50:01.100 a sort

00:50:02.240 of a

00:50:02.520 dominant

00:50:03.060 overarching

00:50:05.200 philosophy,

00:50:06.980 Republicans

00:50:07.460 are sort

00:50:08.060 of,

00:50:08.700 you know,

00:50:09.560 safety

00:50:10.760 through

00:50:11.120 power,

00:50:12.320 you know,

00:50:12.540 prosperity

00:50:12.960 through

00:50:13.640 power and

00:50:15.080 keeping criminals

00:50:15.900 under control

00:50:16.580 and controlling

00:50:17.260 the borders

00:50:17.740 and stuff.

00:50:18.540 Sort of what

00:50:19.280 you'd classically

00:50:20.560 imagine in

00:50:21.900 your sexist

00:50:23.200 mind to be

00:50:23.880 male

00:50:24.340 characteristics.

00:50:26.420 And the

00:50:27.040 Democrats

00:50:28.200 seem to be

00:50:28.880 very female

00:50:29.760 dominated in

00:50:30.820 the sense

00:50:31.240 that,

00:50:32.240 correct me

00:50:32.720 if I'm

00:50:32.960 wrong,

00:50:33.300 but 100%

00:50:34.260 of Democrat

00:50:35.560 policies are

00:50:38.000 favored by

00:50:38.580 most women, 0.99

00:50:39.400 right?

00:50:41.380 Would that

00:50:42.100 be true?

00:50:42.900 100% of

00:50:44.120 Democrat

00:50:45.040 policies would

00:50:45.980 be favored

00:50:46.480 by most

00:50:47.420 women. 0.81

00:50:48.820 I think

00:50:49.100 that's true.

00:50:50.360 So they

00:50:50.720 are really

00:50:51.400 becoming the

00:50:52.660 representative of

00:50:53.580 women. 0.81

00:50:55.540 Oh, I see

00:50:55.960 it now.

00:50:58.560 No, well,

00:50:59.360 yeah, I

00:50:59.780 didn't say for

00:51:00.600 everybody, of

00:51:01.400 course.

00:51:01.800 I'm not saying

00:51:02.320 that they

00:51:02.700 represent Republican

00:51:03.740 women. 0.81

00:51:04.460 I'm saying

00:51:05.000 that the

00:51:05.820 majority,

00:51:06.480 more than

00:51:06.880 50%, I

00:51:07.840 think,

00:51:09.880 50% of

00:51:10.780 women are 1.00

00:51:11.700 in favor of

00:51:14.280 basically everything

00:51:15.080 the Democrats

00:51:15.700 want, I

00:51:16.120 think.

00:51:16.480 or something

00:51:17.040 like that.

00:51:18.740 All right.

00:51:20.980 So the

00:51:22.300 Biden Department

00:51:23.220 of Interior

00:51:24.060 announced they're

00:51:25.580 going to start

00:51:26.100 again, they're

00:51:27.580 going to resume

00:51:27.940 the sale of

00:51:28.480 oil and gas

00:51:29.120 leases on

00:51:29.660 federal land,

00:51:31.420 which is

00:51:32.320 something that,

00:51:33.000 of course,

00:51:33.620 Trump did and

00:51:34.560 Trump was

00:51:35.140 right about.

00:51:36.360 So just

00:51:37.140 added to the

00:51:37.780 Trump was

00:51:38.320 right and

00:51:39.280 Biden has

00:51:39.800 to, of

00:51:40.240 course,

00:51:40.700 reverse policy.

00:51:42.320 Probably he'll

00:51:42.840 do the same on

00:51:43.500 the border at

00:51:44.040 some point.

00:51:45.100 But the

00:51:45.620 number of

00:51:46.120 times Trump

00:51:46.640 was right,

00:51:47.980 which, again,

00:51:49.280 does not

00:51:49.860 forgive anything

00:51:50.800 that you don't

00:51:51.520 like about

00:51:52.760 what he did,

00:51:53.540 but it's really

00:51:54.260 shocking how

00:51:54.960 many things he

00:51:56.080 was just

00:51:56.440 unambiguously

00:51:57.120 right about,

00:51:58.060 and it's

00:51:58.600 obvious now.

00:51:59.480 Fox News

00:52:04.060 asked a bunch

00:52:04.940 of people

00:52:05.300 about what

00:52:05.900 states were

00:52:06.580 doing the

00:52:06.880 best and

00:52:07.200 the worst

00:52:07.560 during COVID,

00:52:09.320 and people

00:52:11.940 thought that

00:52:12.440 Florida and

00:52:13.240 California were

00:52:14.000 the two states

00:52:14.600 that did the

00:52:15.160 best in terms

00:52:16.040 of managing

00:52:16.480 COVID.

00:52:18.460 Do you notice

00:52:19.520 anything weird

00:52:20.200 about that?

00:52:22.000 The two best

00:52:22.980 states, according

00:52:23.980 to who Fox

00:52:25.260 News talked

00:52:25.780 to, I don't

00:52:26.900 know how

00:52:27.180 scientific it

00:52:27.880 was, it

00:52:28.140 didn't sound

00:52:28.440 like it was

00:52:28.780 too scientific,

00:52:29.480 but those

00:52:32.120 were the

00:52:32.380 two best.

00:52:34.880 Now, that's

00:52:35.340 according, I

00:52:35.900 think, to

00:52:36.820 largely the

00:52:37.620 people who

00:52:37.980 lived in

00:52:38.260 those states

00:52:38.780 and had

00:52:39.360 familiarity

00:52:39.880 with them,

00:52:41.280 but yes,

00:52:42.280 they handled

00:52:42.740 them completely

00:52:43.600 differently,

00:52:45.040 and neither

00:52:46.460 of them really

00:52:47.080 were toward

00:52:47.540 the top of

00:52:48.660 the, you

00:52:49.540 know, save

00:52:49.900 people's lives

00:52:50.620 list.

00:52:51.360 They just

00:52:51.820 were sort of

00:52:52.240 in the middle

00:52:52.620 of the pack,

00:52:53.200 but they

00:52:53.420 handled everything

00:52:54.080 differently.

00:52:55.960 I take you

00:52:57.080 back to my

00:52:57.620 weirdest prediction

00:52:58.560 at the beginning

00:52:59.120 of the pandemic

00:52:59.760 that you

00:53:00.980 wouldn't be

00:53:01.440 able to tell

00:53:01.940 who did a

00:53:02.440 good job.

00:53:04.600 How many

00:53:05.180 of you thought

00:53:05.680 that was even

00:53:06.220 possible?

00:53:07.300 That at the

00:53:07.780 end of it,

00:53:08.280 you wouldn't

00:53:08.800 know who

00:53:10.400 was a good

00:53:10.860 leader?

00:53:11.900 Or at least

00:53:12.340 we wouldn't

00:53:12.760 agree.

00:53:14.000 Everybody

00:53:14.360 thinks they

00:53:14.880 know, but

00:53:15.680 we wouldn't

00:53:16.040 agree.

00:53:17.020 I guess the

00:53:17.720 point should have

00:53:18.200 been we

00:53:18.480 wouldn't agree.

00:53:19.780 Not that you

00:53:20.380 don't think you

00:53:21.060 know, because I

00:53:21.980 know a lot of

00:53:22.460 you are going

00:53:22.760 to say, oh,

00:53:23.240 DeSantis did the

00:53:24.520 better job.

00:53:24.980 But I think

00:53:25.620 it has more

00:53:25.940 to do with

00:53:26.300 what you

00:53:26.720 valued.

00:53:28.560 In California,

00:53:29.500 people wanted

00:53:30.140 to protect

00:53:30.860 the weak,

00:53:32.180 and so they

00:53:32.700 said California

00:53:33.540 did the best.

00:53:34.620 In Florida,

00:53:35.420 people were

00:53:35.980 leaning toward,

00:53:36.960 hey, let us

00:53:37.740 just live our

00:53:38.280 life, and they

00:53:39.540 got what they

00:53:40.000 wanted.

00:53:41.320 So actually, I

00:53:42.360 think it is

00:53:42.880 completely rational

00:53:43.860 that California

00:53:45.580 and Florida

00:53:46.820 were the best

00:53:47.860 at handling it,

00:53:49.360 handling it

00:53:49.940 completely differently.

00:53:50.640 That actually

00:53:52.220 does make sense

00:53:53.040 because the

00:53:53.900 Californians wanted 0.81

00:53:54.880 it handled a

00:53:55.580 certain way, on

00:53:56.380 average.

00:53:57.160 I didn't.

00:53:58.000 You know, I

00:53:58.280 would be an

00:53:59.540 outlier in that

00:54:00.300 opinion.

00:54:01.100 And the

00:54:01.500 Floridians wanted

00:54:02.280 it handled a

00:54:02.860 certain way, and

00:54:03.340 they got what

00:54:03.700 they wanted.

00:54:04.680 So it is sort

00:54:05.540 of an example

00:54:06.500 of the system

00:54:07.120 working, right?

00:54:09.200 The systems

00:54:10.100 elected mayors

00:54:11.020 that gave them

00:54:11.580 what they wanted,

00:54:12.440 governors, I

00:54:13.360 mean, that gave

00:54:14.200 them what they

00:54:14.620 wanted, and when

00:54:15.560 it was done,

00:54:16.000 they said, yeah,

00:54:16.480 I kind of got

00:54:17.100 what I wanted

00:54:17.540 there.

00:54:19.260 I don't think

00:54:19.960 you can complain

00:54:20.620 about that.

00:54:21.540 You know, that's

00:54:21.960 one of the big

00:54:22.700 wins, I think,

00:54:23.540 out of the

00:54:23.760 whole thing.

00:54:24.640 The beauty of

00:54:25.500 our system, the

00:54:26.400 different states,

00:54:27.820 is that you can

00:54:29.140 micromanage the

00:54:31.220 preferences, and

00:54:32.660 that's sort of

00:54:33.280 what happened.

00:54:35.180 You know, I

00:54:36.060 think that's

00:54:36.460 just all good

00:54:36.940 news.

00:54:38.300 All right, that,

00:54:39.340 ladies and 0.98

00:54:39.840 gentlemen, brings

00:54:40.860 us to the

00:54:41.740 completion of my

00:54:42.860 prepared comments.

00:54:44.540 I think you'll

00:54:45.140 agree this is

00:54:45.820 one of the most

00:54:46.460 stimulating,

00:54:48.040 entertaining, and

00:54:49.260 really just

00:54:50.240 gives you a

00:54:51.140 tingle.

00:54:52.220 It's better

00:54:52.920 than ASMR, it's

00:54:54.140 better than

00:54:55.260 most of the

00:54:56.700 pharmaceutical drugs

00:54:57.720 that you can get

00:54:59.500 under the

00:55:00.420 counter or

00:55:00.980 under.

00:55:02.240 And now that

00:55:03.120 you're all

00:55:03.500 vibrating in,

00:55:06.060 let's say,

00:55:06.500 higher energy, and

00:55:07.480 you're probably

00:55:08.120 feeling amazing,

00:55:09.920 and you're thinking

00:55:10.500 to yourself, was

00:55:11.640 this the best

00:55:12.220 show I ever

00:55:12.740 saw, I've ever

00:55:14.040 seen in my

00:55:14.520 entire life?

00:55:15.480 Well, we can't

00:55:16.380 answer that

00:55:16.780 question, but we

00:55:18.080 can have one

00:55:18.840 final sip to

00:55:21.040 set you on

00:55:21.640 your day.

00:55:22.940 Now, don't get

00:55:23.440 used to this.

00:55:24.280 There won't

00:55:24.740 always be a

00:55:25.900 closing sip.

00:55:27.180 So, savor

00:55:27.700 it, savor

00:55:28.920 it, savor

00:55:30.280 it, go.

00:55:35.580 Yeah, that's

00:55:36.240 pretty good.

00:55:37.180 Now, before I

00:55:37.800 go, I'd like to

00:55:38.420 solve the

00:55:38.880 homeless problem

00:55:39.540 in California,

00:55:40.720 if I may.

00:55:41.300 And, I

00:55:45.900 don't know

00:55:46.340 why nobody

00:55:48.140 has already

00:55:48.520 suggested this.

00:55:50.800 Correct me if

00:55:51.300 I'm wrong on

00:55:52.080 these assumptions.

00:55:53.800 Number one, the

00:55:55.500 homeless, in

00:55:56.440 California at

00:55:57.120 least, prefer to

00:55:58.500 be outdoors,

00:55:59.760 because if they're

00:56:00.500 indoors in any

00:56:01.400 way, they're

00:56:02.020 going to be

00:56:02.540 limited in their

00:56:03.280 drug use, and

00:56:04.340 they don't want

00:56:04.780 to be.

00:56:05.600 They'd rather be

00:56:06.440 outdoors.

00:56:07.180 But, nobody

00:56:07.860 wants to be

00:56:08.360 outdoors and

00:56:09.420 have it

00:56:09.880 dangerous and

00:56:10.980 unhealthy, etc.

00:56:13.360 What if we

00:56:15.000 took a bunch of

00:56:15.680 public land and

00:56:17.840 said, this is a

00:56:19.240 campground for

00:56:20.060 the homeless, and

00:56:21.580 the homeless will

00:56:22.620 help you get

00:56:23.160 going, but you

00:56:25.300 need to form your

00:56:26.000 own government and

00:56:27.680 management and

00:56:29.200 go wild.

00:56:30.740 If it gets too

00:56:31.560 out of line,

00:56:32.940 let's say if it

00:56:34.300 differs with state

00:56:35.820 laws or local

00:56:36.680 laws, then you

00:56:37.340 can't do that.

00:56:38.720 But, in terms of

00:56:39.660 managing, having a

00:56:41.700 mayor, something

00:56:42.900 like that, why

00:56:44.460 not let them

00:56:45.040 live the life

00:56:45.720 they want to

00:56:46.200 live?

00:56:47.680 Why not?

00:56:49.480 These are people

00:56:50.360 who tell you

00:56:51.500 exactly what they

00:56:52.360 want, and it's

00:56:54.060 not much.

00:56:56.320 They tell you

00:56:57.140 exactly what they

00:56:57.940 want, and it's

00:56:58.660 not much.

00:56:59.860 They want to be

00:57:00.460 left alone, they

00:57:01.980 want to live

00:57:02.420 outdoors, and

00:57:04.240 they would like

00:57:04.920 to be safe and

00:57:06.340 maybe have some

00:57:07.280 services available.

00:57:08.780 people, but I

00:57:09.900 feel like if you

00:57:10.900 were close enough

00:57:11.700 to, say, a

00:57:12.180 hospital, and

00:57:14.120 there wasn't a

00:57:15.460 risk that they

00:57:15.880 would burn down

00:57:16.400 the forest, that's

00:57:17.500 a big risk, so

00:57:18.220 you'd have to

00:57:18.600 manage that.

00:57:20.140 But I feel like

00:57:21.180 instead of putting

00:57:22.500 them indoors and

00:57:23.560 having them not

00:57:24.360 like it, and you're

00:57:25.520 wasting all this

00:57:26.080 real estate for

00:57:26.820 people who don't

00:57:27.360 want to be there

00:57:27.820 anyway, is there

00:57:29.040 any reason they

00:57:29.760 can't just form

00:57:30.360 their own

00:57:30.700 civilization and

00:57:31.540 take care of

00:57:32.020 each other?

00:57:33.380 Has anybody

00:57:33.920 tried it?

00:57:34.440 Now, remember, the

00:57:36.880 key is not whether

00:57:37.980 you think it's a

00:57:38.580 great idea.

00:57:39.980 That's not the

00:57:40.600 key.

00:57:41.380 The key is whether

00:57:42.080 you could test it

00:57:43.120 on a small scale.

00:57:45.680 Now, Michael

00:57:46.160 Schellenberg, who

00:57:46.820 is running for

00:57:47.440 governor as an

00:57:49.080 independent, he's

00:57:50.600 done the best

00:57:51.120 thinking and the

00:57:51.920 most research and

00:57:52.960 has the most

00:57:53.600 clean and, I

00:57:56.040 think, probably

00:57:56.640 practical suggestion

00:57:57.880 for how to do

00:57:58.320 this.

00:57:58.940 And he would

00:57:59.520 suggest, among

00:58:01.240 other things, that

00:58:02.740 the addicts are

00:58:03.960 not the ones who

00:58:04.680 should decide

00:58:05.280 whether they

00:58:05.780 should be free

00:58:06.620 to do what they

00:58:07.180 want.

00:58:08.020 Because once you're

00:58:08.900 an addict, you do

00:58:09.720 lose the ability to

00:58:10.720 make good judgment,

00:58:12.200 and if you care

00:58:12.900 about them, there's

00:58:14.100 sort of only one

00:58:14.920 way to give them

00:58:16.080 a chance, which is

00:58:17.140 to take away their

00:58:17.960 rights just long

00:58:19.440 enough that they

00:58:20.420 can be part of the

00:58:22.000 decision-making

00:58:22.660 process again.

00:58:24.180 They can be clean

00:58:25.780 enough that they

00:58:27.160 can at least lean

00:58:28.000 into their own

00:58:29.940 benefit if they

00:58:30.980 want to, if they

00:58:31.760 can.

00:58:32.740 So, you could

00:58:34.140 debate that.

00:58:35.640 I think honest

00:58:36.220 people could debate

00:58:37.180 should you go

00:58:38.580 hard, well, let's

00:58:40.160 say tough love.

00:58:41.480 Should you use

00:58:42.060 tough love on the

00:58:42.940 addicts and the

00:58:43.560 homeless, or should

00:58:44.760 you let them live

00:58:45.500 their best life?

00:58:47.300 I think some of

00:58:48.360 them are going to

00:58:49.060 be completely immune

00:58:50.140 to tough love.

00:58:51.400 Would you agree?

00:58:53.060 So, maybe there's

00:58:54.400 just a group of

00:58:55.280 hardcores that just

00:58:56.900 want to live their

00:58:57.820 life the way they

00:58:58.440 want, and if they

00:58:59.160 die at 50, they 1.00

00:59:00.660 died happy, and it

00:59:01.900 was their best shot.

00:59:02.740 Because they

00:59:03.460 didn't want to

00:59:03.880 live to 75, hating

00:59:05.280 every fucking

00:59:05.840 day.

00:59:06.880 So, it's a free

00:59:08.680 country.

00:59:10.320 Maybe they could

00:59:10.880 be accommodated.

00:59:12.840 Everybody's

00:59:13.240 different.

00:59:14.180 So, I just put that

00:59:15.040 out there.

00:59:15.500 Is there any kind

00:59:16.180 of model that you

00:59:16.800 could test small, and

00:59:18.340 if it doesn't work,

00:59:19.060 you just stop doing

00:59:19.700 it.

00:59:20.660 Right?

00:59:21.400 That's it.

00:59:22.680 Try it with, I

00:59:23.720 don't know, 50

00:59:25.440 people.

00:59:26.800 Take 50 people, you 0.93

00:59:28.200 know, really control

00:59:29.460 it and monitor it.

00:59:30.240 You don't walk

00:59:30.700 away, like don't

00:59:31.700 dump them in the

00:59:32.240 forest and walk

00:59:32.840 away.

00:59:33.300 You give them

00:59:33.740 some kind of

00:59:34.180 support, make

00:59:34.800 sure they had, you

00:59:35.900 know, some kind of

00:59:36.640 supply chain.

00:59:37.560 You'd make sure that

00:59:38.420 they have the

00:59:38.840 basics.

00:59:39.820 But, just try it.

00:59:41.820 Try it with 50

00:59:42.560 people, see what

00:59:43.160 happens.

00:59:45.020 Somebody said

00:59:45.560 Sweden did it?

00:59:48.060 Yeah?

00:59:48.960 All right, anyway, I

00:59:50.320 won't tell you I

00:59:51.300 think it's a good

00:59:51.800 idea, I'll just tell

00:59:52.720 you it's easy to test,

00:59:54.240 and therefore, maybe

00:59:56.220 we should.

00:59:56.540 And that's it for

00:59:57.400 today.

00:59:57.800 I'll talk to you

00:59:58.280 tomorrow.

00:59:59.340 Bye, YouTube.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 16, 2022

Episode 1715 Scott Adams： Elon Musk, Chomsky, Ukraine, More Provocation And Beverages

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