Episode 1715 Scott Adams： Elon Musk, Chomsky, Ukraine, More Provocation And Beverages
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
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Summary
In this live stream, I talk about the poison pill and why you should be worried about a poison pill. I also talk about my thoughts on Elon Musk's purchase of Tesla and the recent poison pill controversy surrounding it.
Transcript
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good morning everybody and you are in for a treat today I don't mean the
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livestream I just mean it's gonna be an amazing day for you probably one of the
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best ones you've ever had why because I said so he did you know the reality is
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largely subjective and what that means is that however you think of reality is
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for all practical purposes that's what it is for you and today your reality is
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gonna be great better than yesterday and yesterday might have been pretty good
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for for some of you some of you have your coffee ready or thinking you know
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yesterday was pretty good pretty darn good others not so much but if you'd
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like to take it to the ultimate level I'm talking extreme extreme goodness then
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all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass or tank or chalice or slide a canteen
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jug or flask a vessel of any kind except for a Russian missile cruiser fill it
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with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled
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pleasure it's the dopamine hit of the day it's the thing that makes you tingle can
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you feel it you feel in the back of your neck right there yeah you can feel it a
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little bit can't you it's called the simultaneous sip and it joins all of us in
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unison in one big god-like experience go you know I wasn't expecting to feel
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connected to the divine I thought it was just gonna be a really tasty cup of
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coffee and one of the best days ever but I exceeded my expectations they were
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pretty high Wow how about that well you know it goes well with the
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simultaneous sip poison pills poison pills and beverages locals I was I was
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suggested that maybe poison pills and coffee would be a good title for today's
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live stream but here's the story so you may have heard already that Twitter has
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adopted what's called the poison pill now for those of you who don't
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understand economics and mergers and acquisitions and all the intricacies of
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what companies can do for their back and forth I'd like to take a moment to
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any questions well it seems that a poison pill would be any one of a number of
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things that a company would implement a set of rules that would say should we be
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bid on certain rules will go into play that would make it a bad idea for the
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person trying to buy it to buy it so they've actually adopted a poison pill
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which would dilute the shares if someone tries to buy them so in other words the
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more you tried to buy the less it would change your that doesn't make sense right
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but you try to buy more but they would dilute the stock so you're not owning more
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more as a percentage so is that good for stockholders to have a whole rule that
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would keep them from getting a 38 percent gain in one day yeah how many of the
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stockholders are saying to themselves hey wait a minute wait a minute don't you
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think now oh and by the way I I always forget to disclose but I do own Twitter
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stock in this is a very small amount compared to you know as a percentage and
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also Tesla so I do I do have a dog in the fight but it's more like a chihuahua
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everybody cool with that right so I do have a chihuahua in the fight it doesn't
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feel like it would have been enough to bias me but it probably does like I don't I
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don't feel the bias but you have to assume it's there right what can you all agree with
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this this statement I believe I'm giving you an honest internal opinion that doesn't
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feel like my stock ownership in those two companies because it's not a big part of my
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portfolio or anything it doesn't feel like it's changing my opinion but you know it is
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don't you if you understand economics and you understand psychology you understand anything
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about follow the money it doesn't really need to be that much money that's actually
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the scariest part about follow the money the scariest part by far is it doesn't take much
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if it's a lot of money you can guarantee bad behavior you know I've told you that a million
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times anything with a lot of money at stake and there's any opportunity for somebody to get
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at it oh it's going to happen just just a matter of time it's like elections you don't have to
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wonder if elections have integrity and will always have integrity because there's a lot to gain
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somebody's going to get at one you don't know if it's happened yet but yeah somebody's going to get
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into one of those because people have the reason and the time and the incentive and sooner or later
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somebody will have the skill um I don't even know where that came from something about a poison pill
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but here's the defense against the poison pill I think now keep in mind that everything you hear
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from this point on about this whole twitter Elon Musk purchase thing everybody talking about it
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will be somebody who doesn't understand it because as soon as you get into the uh merger and
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acquisition and then all of the the legal challenges that are possible around it and the poison pills and
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stuff it's just a little bit more than the average journalist quay has a grasp on and even the business
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journalists I think would be the most humble because they know the most so so here's something you can test
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if you're watching the coverage if you're watching the people who are who are the business
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journalists they know the most they will probably be the most humble about predicting what happens
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because it's a little bit more unpredictable than the maybe regular journalists will say so just
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something to watch for the more the more somebody knows about it the more humble they will be about
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being able to predict it if I had to have I made a prediction yet about whether Musk will succeed
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I guess I should right now for those of you new to my material if I make a prediction I like to make a
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prediction based on something that I have some special insight about so in other words if it if it looks
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like it's a mass hysteria then I feel like I could spot those better than other people because you know
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background in hypnosis and I pay attention to that stuff etc but there are other situations and this is one of
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a better problems in which you probably would want you know a lawyer somebody's worked in this space to be your better prognosticator but but I'm gonna play anyway so let's let's let's see what we can say about the situation without knowing much okay I'll boil it down to its simplest form you and I don't know what Elon Musk's options are
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Do you think that Elon Musk has conceived of the entire toolbox of options?
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But don't you think he's talked about option A through F or G?
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So you have to start with the assumption that whatever you and I and the business journalists say about this,
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If any of us could think like him, well, we'd probably be doing a lot better than we're doing.
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It would seem to suggest, if you're that smart, that you can second-guess him and you know what he's going to do.
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So I'm going to say some things that you all agree with.
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So I'll give you some assumptions you agree with.
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Assumption number one, Elon Musk would probably not go into this without having at least a strong intuition
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that he has enough tools to get it done, and also that he anticipated, let's say, an obvious range of defenses.
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It's not like the first time he's ever done anything.
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It's like, do you think he didn't talk to anybody or doesn't have a lawyer, wouldn't have thought of it on his own, never heard of a poison pill?
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It's inconceivable that he did not consider that a likely possibility, which suggests that he has a defense.
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He's offering so much that if the board rejects it or creates a poison pill, which is effectively rejecting it just in a different way.
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So you just have to assume that Musk anticipated all this stuff, and that he thinks that he could win a court case
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if the board does something that is clearly against the interests of the stockholders.
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But do I know anything about this kind of lawsuit?
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But if you ask me just commonsensically, do you think that turning down a 38% one-day gain in Twitter would be something the stockholders would want?
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And by the way, Elon Musk is saying just put it up to a vote of the stockholders.
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Musk is not even saying that he'll take the company no matter what.
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Musk has actually said the stockholders, if they vote for a yes,
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and I think if the stockholders at large voted against it, that he would probably conclude that they had judged it's not in their best interests.
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So don't you think that Musk could win in court if he at least said you should have put it to the stockholders instead of the board deciding?
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Or at least he'd have a good chance of winning it.
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So, you know, maybe enough of a risk that it made sense as a risk management thing.
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All right, then there's a bigger problem, and this from, I guess, a former SEC chair named Pitt, told Fox Business, Maria Baturoma.
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Well, my concern is that this administration is pretty much guaranteed to oppose this kind of bid.
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In other words, he thinks that Congress or somebody and the government will try to stop it, some entity or multiple entities,
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because it's just not the sort of thing that they're likely to support.
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Now, do you think that Musk would have anticipated the Democrat, you know, parts of the government trying to stop him with government power?
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Now, I'm not saying that you and I would have thought of it, necessarily.
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I mean, if I were in that position, would I have even thought of that?
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And I would have been advised of it, and certainly somebody would have mentioned it, right?
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So, unless you believe that Musk has a plan that doesn't involve buying it, like some clever plan about pump and dump.
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Some pump and dump, meaning that he buys some shares, he talks about what's going to happen, but he's not really serious about it.
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And then the shares go up and he sells it at a profit and he, you know, gets out by making a billion dollars overnight.
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I don't know if he needs another billion dollars.
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Do you think he would take that hit to his brand and his, yeah, just his personal image?
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Do you think he would take that hit for one billion dollars?
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I can't see him taking that half of 1% gain at the expense of basically the most valuable asset on the planet right now, which is his reputation.
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I would argue that Musk's reputation is, I hate to say brand because it's overused, is probably worth more than his actual fortune because of the impact he can have on things because of the brand he has, basically.
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So, if you assume that Musk has thought through all the options and you believe that he genuinely wants to take over the company, it's not some kind of a destroy the company play or make a quick buck.
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I'm going to guess that he thinks he can beat all of these elements.
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I'm going to say, I'm going to say if he thinks he can do it, do you want to bet against him?
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I think it comes down to whether Musk himself believes he can get it done.
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So, he said himself, I think as recently as yesterday maybe, that he wasn't sure he could get it done.
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But that's different than, yeah, and we don't know if plan B is another way to buy it, or if plan B is just going to the courts and saying,
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hey, the board of directors is not pursuing their fiduciary responsibility, meaning that they're not doing their job.
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That's just the big word for doing their job, of taking care of the stockholders.
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Is it weird to think that we're talking, we're having a, like a serious conversation in public about whether the Democrat-led government will try to squash Elon Musk who is trying to promote free speech?
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In other words, we're actually saying, matter-of-factly, that the government of the United States will act publicly, with no secret whatsoever, act publicly, to squash the biggest free speech movement of, since a long time, right?
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Hasn't it been a long time since something this important to free speech was even a topic?
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And the government itself would be the thing to shut it down?
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Now, of course, they would make arguments that their, you know, they're, they would make arguments that their constituents would believe.
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But to me, it would look exactly like the government trying to restrict speech.
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That, that feels like the farthest thing from okay.
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Who do you think the public is going to side with?
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It's weird to even see that the Democrats took a solid swing as siding in favor of censorship, which they call moderation.
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That they, they actually, they took a legitimate try to see if they could make a case for less free speech.
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Now, it doesn't, it seems a little desperate, doesn't it?
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Like, if you're arguing against freedom of speech in the United States, because it's your best play?
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They've been reduced to, that's their best play.
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Well, you know, we've still got one thing we can do.
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You know, everything's going badly, our policies look like a disaster, but we always have this thing we can do.
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We can, I think we can get the public on our side by trying to restrict free speech.
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There was a little back and forth with Musk and a Reddit, I don't know if he's the CEO or prior CEO.
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Maybe it's prior, I can't, his last name is Yishin.
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Anyway, he's a big deal in the tech world and from Reddit in particular.
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And he did this long thread, which I loved in one sense, that he sees clearly the two movies and he's calling it out.
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And here's something that actually surprised me.
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So see if you can even believe that this is true.
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I'm going to say I do believe it's true, because it's not really something you lie about.
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And he says, all my left-wing woke friends are convinced that the social media platforms uphold the white supremacist, misogynistic patriarchy, and they have plenty of screenshots and evidence.
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In other words, the people on the left are having an identical experience to the people on the right, which is, hey, why are they only censoring things that agree with me?
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Now, I spend, you know, as much time in a bubble as anybody else.
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Like, I would love to tell you I'm the guy who can go from bubble to bubble, but I'm not.
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And I think it has to do with just the way they talk about it.
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In their world, there's, you know, too much, you know, racist, Nazi, misogynist, anti-LGBTQ stuff, because there would always be too much.
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If you don't like it, what's the right amount of it?
00:20:08.460
So it makes perfect sense, you know, once he points it out, so I admit I was somewhat blind to it, but it makes perfect sense that the people on the left are convinced that the platforms are biased against them, while the people on the right have their own good examples.
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And apparently there are good examples on both sides.
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But I don't think they're talking about exactly the same thing, right?
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When the left is talking about stuff, they're talking about really stuff closer to hate speech.
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But when the right is getting banned, it tends to be a little bit more opinion-related, it seems to me.
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All right, let's talk about that big missile cruiser, the flagship of the Russian Baltic.
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And it sunk, the guy hit, I guess the U.S. is saying that Ukraine hit it with two Neptune missiles.
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How often or how recently, besides this conflict, have Neptune missiles actually been used in conflict?
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Apparently Russia, their flagship, didn't have any countermeasures.
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Because if they only fired two, somebody says never, and that feels like the right answer, doesn't it?
00:21:58.300
But aren't these types of missiles kind of really likely to hit where you aim them?
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I mean, compared to, I think, yeah, so people are saying Neptune's brand new.
00:22:15.320
And then that would be mostly mechanical, right?
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That wouldn't even be based on countermeasures.
00:22:21.700
That if you're looking at the Neptune failing, it's probably not because it got shot down.
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So we're always guessing on some of the military stuff here.
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So keep in mind that I don't know anything about the military.
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So, you know, do your own fact-checking on that stuff.
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At the same time that their state TV is saying that there must be retaliation for the missiles that sunk it
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in the explosion that was not caused by the missiles that sunk it because it was an onboard fire.
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So the onboard fire that sunk it, not caused by missiles, there should be some revenge for it, the state TV says.
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And maybe, you know, it could get bad and maybe an attack on NATO or the United States
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because of the missiles that were fired that weren't fired because really no missiles hit.
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That's actually what the Russian public is being told.
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Literally both things at the same time, that it was a fire and that there ought to be some revenge for that fire.
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The biggest impact of that Moskva sinking I don't think will be on Ukraine.
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So militarily, probably not that much of a difference.
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Apparently, the missile cruiser was used to fire missiles that could have been fired from land.
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So it was just another way to fire missiles that Russia has plenty of, apparently.
00:24:06.460
So it shouldn't make any difference in firepower.
00:24:09.220
It probably doesn't make that much difference in command and control, I would think.
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but I didn't see anything in the news about them losing some kind of command structure.
00:24:23.160
I only saw that they lost a lot of missiles that they could replace from land-based missiles.
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So it probably doesn't make that much difference militarily.
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It might make some difference in terms of morale or getting the Russian public all riled up.
00:24:36.040
But by far, the biggest impact is probably China noticing that you can't stop a Neptune missile.
00:24:44.920
And if China wants to take Taiwan, it's going to have to do it with some boats.
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Because Taiwan has money, and they're not dumb, and they're good at planning ahead,
00:25:01.040
Do you know how many Neptune missiles are heading for Taiwan right now?
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And couldn't that make Taiwan essentially unconquerable?
00:25:19.900
I mean, it could be bombed into rubble, but do you think China would do that?
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Do you think China would bomb into rubble Taiwan?
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I mean, I suppose, you know, we get used to, if somebody says yes, I suppose anything's possible.
00:25:33.580
I mean, a lot of people didn't see Ukraine coming, but a lot of people did.
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So, there's more stories about the war crimes and the places that the Russians occupied,
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and there's more credible stories coming out of there.
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But I'm not doubting that there were war crimes.
00:26:01.640
But it's a little suspicious that they only happen on one side.
00:26:09.440
Because when it's so obvious that you're being fed a narrative as opposed to anything that looks like news,
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Like, it just feels like there's a lot of bad people doing a lot of bad things over there.
00:26:35.260
Imagine, let's go back 10 years, just randomly 10 years.
00:26:41.120
Do you think that the CIA, 10 years ago, would have started a, let's say, a civil war in Russia if they could?
00:26:52.680
Do you think the CIA would have done that if they could?
00:26:59.160
Now, do you think that Russia would have tried to turn the United States against each other
00:27:13.980
Because we saw in the 2016 election cycle that Russia did seem to, like, promote some Black Lives Matter activities,
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you know, like fake ones that looked like they were just designed to cause conflict.
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You know, as if they just wanted to cause trouble, sort of a civil war.
00:27:33.260
So, would we agree that both the United States and Russia, if they could, would create a civil war for the other?
00:27:49.340
Now, that brings me to looking at the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
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Am I wrong that, from my perspective, it's a bunch of Russian-looking people?
00:28:04.020
But it's a bunch of Russian-looking people fighting a bunch of Russian-looking people in an area that is maybe Russian, maybe not.
00:28:11.700
But some part of them thinks it's not, and it's its own nation.
00:28:14.960
But some of the others think it should be part of that nation.
00:28:23.480
Because there's always one part of the civil war that thinks they need to be an independent nation, right?
00:28:33.360
And there's some reason we have to be together.
00:28:36.340
So did the United States, with its control over NATO and maybe with their willingness,
00:28:50.400
It's just that we're using Ukraine as an allegedly independent country.
00:29:01.320
Ukraine is a sovereign country by all the normal rules of things.
00:29:07.820
I'm just saying that that distinction may have blinded us to the fact it sure looks like somebody created a civil war in Russia
00:29:17.980
but disguised it as a conflict across borders when it just looks like somebody created a civil war.
00:29:24.540
Because it's hard to explain everything that got us to this point unless it was intentional.
00:29:35.740
So I'm just saying the only thing I can say is if you're looking at it completely objectively,
00:29:40.300
like if you were an alien from another planet and you just came down and said, look, we're just going to give you the facts
00:29:47.180
and you don't have any biases because you're from another planet and we're going to describe what Ukraine is without calling it a nation.
00:29:55.000
Then we're going to describe what Russia is and then we're going to say, does that look like sort of a civil war?
00:30:02.360
And does it look like maybe the United States did a number of things which, in retrospect, look like they contributed to this war?
00:30:17.860
Because remember, I just got done talking about how half of the country sees one movie about social platforms are biased one way
00:30:26.660
I'm just saying that there's a whole movie we're not watching.
00:30:30.020
The movie we're not watching is the one that has the magic trick.
00:30:34.940
And the magic trick is Ukraine, that's its own country.
00:30:43.720
It's a sovereign country that was attacked by Russia.
00:30:47.800
But wow, does it on another level sort of look like we promoted a civil war in a Russia-ish area?
00:30:56.000
Let me ask you, how many of you hear that framing for the first time and just said, holy shit?
00:31:11.320
Because sometimes if you hear that, okay, I am seeing some yeses on that.
00:31:15.700
A lot of noes, because some of you were already there or don't buy the framing, I guess.
00:31:21.740
Now, for those of you who got yes, and it's maybe 20% of you or whatever.
00:31:29.620
Isn't it a total mindfuck to see that you can look at the same information
00:31:34.440
and that like an optical illusion, I can just tell you,
00:31:38.420
oh, it's not the ladies looking at each other, it's the flower or whatever.
00:31:43.480
And then suddenly your brain goes, and you can see the vases or vases or the flowers or whatever.
00:31:49.620
It's such like a, it can really play with your head when you realize how gaslit you could be.
00:31:57.120
It doesn't mean you are, but it allows you to imagine how easily you could be completely bamboozled.
00:32:04.620
And one of the things that I've said helps you understand the world is understanding magic tricks.
00:32:19.080
And the reason is that if you spend enough time thinking about how tricks are done
00:32:23.580
and you learn how to do them yourself, you look for the diversion.
00:32:28.880
So when I look at politics, one of my just automatic filters is,
00:32:38.500
And maybe sometimes it misleads me to think there is one when there isn't.
00:32:42.140
So it could be a frame that misleads you as well.
00:32:45.040
But I feel as if thinking that things could be diversions
00:32:49.940
is a real healthy, productive way to look at any political situation.
00:32:55.700
Because it does feel like they're doing intentional diversions.
00:32:59.460
I mean, I'm not the person who discovered that.
00:33:02.660
But it just helps to always have that frame in mind.
00:33:07.100
Noam Chomsky, noted intellectual, provocative person on the left, I guess you'd say,
00:33:25.080
And he's getting a lot of pushback because he says the only way that the Ukraine-Russia thing gets settled
00:33:34.000
is with a negotiated settlement that Ukraine isn't going to like.
00:33:41.260
But basically, he's just saying that's the only way it ends.
00:33:56.020
Because even if one side sort of wins, it's not like they conquered the other country.
00:34:02.520
It just means that they beat their military down to the point where one wants to talk.
00:34:07.120
But now here's something that you can take into your daily life.
00:34:19.240
And he's basically saying, and again, I'm going to over-paraphrase him,
00:34:27.440
But I think the essence of the argument is, if you know where it's going to end up,
00:34:31.900
why would you put up with all that pain to get there?
00:34:41.060
And yeah, I get that Russia likes to negotiate and fight at the same time.
00:34:45.860
So, you know, if they get a battlefield win at the same time they're negotiating,
00:34:52.480
But if their missile cruiser flagship ship gets sunk,
00:34:56.720
well, maybe that's a little bad negotiating position.
00:34:59.220
But the Russians like to fight and negotiate at the same time.
00:35:03.020
Well, I don't know that it's going to make that much difference, is it?
00:35:07.920
If you know where it's going to end up, you might as well just start now.
00:35:15.720
But people can't put themselves in that mindset.
00:35:18.980
Now, here's where this helps you in the real world.
00:35:22.720
You find yourself in, let's say, an argument with a spouse.
00:35:26.720
But you know from your history that you're going to get over it.
00:35:42.300
have you ever said this to your loved one, spouse, family member,
00:35:48.140
Have you ever said, all right, you know where this is going to end?
00:35:55.600
And we're going to say, well, that wasn't that important,
00:36:00.080
And you should see what people say when you say that to them.
00:36:06.580
Because if they also know, yeah, that's where it's going to go.
00:36:12.240
You can actually sometimes get people to think themselves into that future
00:36:17.660
and then negotiate as though the future is already here.
00:36:21.520
In other words, making them imagine, you know where it's going to end.
00:36:27.400
So in the comments, exactly at the time I was going to say it.
00:36:33.280
And actually, you can use them at the same time.
00:36:35.880
Look, should we spend 48 hours being mad at each other
00:36:44.240
we know that in two days we're going to be right with each other,
00:36:49.740
Now, that's never worked instantly in my experience.
00:36:58.720
I feel like it at least changes the tone of things.
00:37:01.220
If you make them think toward the inevitability of it being over
00:37:09.500
are you going to be thinking this on your deathbed?
00:37:14.840
Just say to anybody, especially if they're younger,
00:37:18.780
the younger they are, the more ridiculous it is
00:37:21.080
that they can imagine this would matter when they died.
00:37:40.820
Is it for the great camaraderie that we experience?
00:37:51.820
And that is only one of the things I was going to say.
00:38:00.840
So CNN does this thing that I am so fascinated by
00:38:14.300
oh, that looks like completely unbiased reporting.
00:39:12.520
And when I see somebody who can do their job well,
00:39:40.320
and there were some texts going back and forth.