Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1738 Scott Adams： Elon Musk Worries About Being Murdered, Supply Chain Mysteries, And More

00:00:00.000 La-da-da-da, ra-ba-ba-ba, ba-ba-ba, la-da-da-da. 0.97

00:00:10.260 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the Highlight of Civilization.

00:00:16.020 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and today we will be talking about 2,000 mules.

00:00:21.260 We will be talking about Elon Musk.

00:00:23.520 We will be talking about the war in Ukraine and all things interesting, and some other

00:00:29.360 stuff, too.

00:00:30.120 You're going to love it.

00:00:31.320 It's going to be the best time you ever had while you're exercising or getting ready for

00:00:34.500 work or possibly commuting.

00:00:36.500 And all you need to make it extra special is a cup or mug or a glass, a tinkered shell,

00:00:40.640 a stein, a canteen, a jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:44.680 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:47.900 I like coffee.

00:00:49.720 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:54.320 It's the dope meat hit of the day.

00:00:56.280 The thing that makes everything better.

00:00:57.720 It's called the simultaneous sip.

00:00:59.800 Go.

00:01:04.320 Ah.

00:01:06.680 So good.

00:01:09.160 Delicious.

00:01:10.640 Well, here's a cool story in technology.

00:01:13.760 So apparently Lockheed Martin is building these hybrid airships that are part lighter than

00:01:23.380 air.

00:01:23.840 What do they put in them?

00:01:24.760 Helium or something?

00:01:26.520 So they fill them with a gas, but they're actually heavier than air.

00:01:29.580 But they've designed them to be gigantic.

00:01:33.680 So now they've got orders for these hybrid airships that are the size of a football field.

00:01:39.440 And they're very stable, apparently.

00:01:42.380 And they can carry 20 tons of cargo to remote spaces, which is a pretty big deal.

00:01:48.280 Because a lot of remote spaces are where you drill for oil or you need resources or, you know,

00:01:54.000 you've got to bring them something.

00:01:55.000 So I can't imagine what would be cooler than traveling by a gigantic airship.

00:02:02.380 I wouldn't mind that it was slow.

00:02:06.040 I would just think it would be a cool way to travel in luxury.

00:02:10.320 Don't we need these?

00:02:11.360 I think we need gigantic airships.

00:02:13.440 Let's get these going.

00:02:14.240 By the way, here's a cool little related factoid.

00:02:19.840 When I was testing virtual reality goggles, I think it was HTC's goggles.

00:02:25.680 Now, this was about three years ago.

00:02:27.620 One of the contents that you could explore was you could go into the Hindenburg, the airship

00:02:34.440 that caught on fire and was destroyed.

00:02:36.920 And you could walk around inside it.

00:02:39.460 You could go to the control area where the pilot is.

00:02:43.560 You could walk into the back area and see stuff scattered around.

00:02:48.280 But the funniest thing was that on the airship that caught fire and blew up, they had a smoking

00:02:55.340 room.

00:02:57.600 There's actually a room with little ashtrays.

00:02:59.820 That was their smoking room on the Hindenburg.

00:03:03.820 Anyway, Rasmussen has a poll.

00:03:08.960 They asked people, among other things, how likely is it that climate change will be a

00:03:13.380 catastrophe in the next hundred years?

00:03:16.300 And half of the people who asked, about 50%, thought that it was a good chance or at least

00:03:21.500 likely, a little bit likely.

00:03:24.020 So half of the country thinks there's a catastrophe coming in the next hundred years.

00:03:27.780 Do those people reproduce? 1.00

00:03:33.940 Here's an evolutionary question.

00:03:36.100 If you looked at the half of the country that believes that everything's going to go to

00:03:39.860 hell versus the half that thinks everything will be okay, do they have the same amount

00:03:45.380 of children?

00:03:47.020 What do you think?

00:03:48.540 In theory, they would have fewer children, right?

00:03:51.400 Does it work that way?

00:03:52.380 Maybe it's not that direct.

00:03:54.940 But I do wonder if scaring one side has a difference in who ultimately survives.

00:04:04.200 Because the ones who are not afraid will be the ones who have children.

00:04:09.340 They do not reproduce.

00:04:10.760 That's why they need immigrants. 1.00

00:04:12.380 That's an interesting concept.

00:04:14.120 If the left is in favor of abortion and maybe less in favor of traditional marriage and

00:04:21.720 traditional children having, it wouldn't make sense that they would be in favor of immigration

00:04:26.640 because it would be the only way to repopulate the country.

00:04:30.720 That actually makes sense.

00:04:32.400 It's the first time I thought of that.

00:04:33.980 That was a good comment.

00:04:36.000 And now I have to think about it a little more.

00:04:37.800 Is there any connection there?

00:04:39.120 Or is that a coincidence?

00:04:39.920 Is it a coincidence that the people who want to create their own humans don't want as many

00:04:47.080 to come from the outside, but the ones who can't or won't think they need some more outside

00:04:51.980 people because they can't make their own?

00:04:54.420 Huh.

00:04:55.680 Kind of makes sense.

00:04:57.540 All right.

00:04:58.860 Rasmussen also asked who's in favor of drilling, doing more drilling.

00:05:03.480 60% of the country was leaning in that direction, which makes sense.

00:05:09.920 You know, that's basically most Republicans and you pick up a few independents and stuff,

00:05:15.640 I guess.

00:05:16.840 And 52% said Biden should focus on oil and gas prices, which I don't know how you could

00:05:24.720 do much about them except for drilling more and building more pipelines.

00:05:29.580 And 34% say he should focus more on limiting carbon dioxide emissions.

00:05:37.020 So that's where we are as a country.

00:05:40.600 Now, what would the country look like if half of the country were not convinced that we had

00:05:45.980 a catastrophe in the next hundred years?

00:05:48.440 I feel as though the news has really changed the entire nature of innovation and technology.

00:05:57.800 In fact, the direction of civilization itself is really kind of dependent on what we think

00:06:04.160 about climate change, isn't it?

00:06:06.400 So climate change is kind of the macro thing that's guiding everything, all the smaller

00:06:11.120 decisions.

00:06:12.700 What if it's wrong?

00:06:14.860 It would mean that the news basically trimmed $50 trillion off the GDP for no good reason.

00:06:22.840 But I do think that fighting against climate change, even if it's not going to be a catastrophe,

00:06:27.240 which I think it won't be, because I think we'll respond to it.

00:06:30.700 Not because it isn't a problem, just to be clear.

00:06:34.380 I'm not saying it's not a problem.

00:06:36.560 I just think we'll figure out how to respond to it adequately.

00:06:41.780 Let's talk about 2,000 mules.

00:06:43.960 Everybody says, Scott, why don't you go watch Dinesh D'Souza's big hit movie,

00:06:50.220 2,000 mules, which refers to the mules being humans who allegedly ballot harvested and brought

00:06:58.660 ballots to boxes and maybe stuffed them with people who weren't going to vote on their own.

00:07:05.680 So we don't know that exactly what crimes may or may not have been perpetrated there.

00:07:12.600 But here's the worst advice I'm getting.

00:07:15.280 It goes like this, Scott, Scott, Scott, do not form an opinion on this movie unless you've watched it.

00:07:24.200 Does that sound reasonable?

00:07:26.000 Do you think it's reasonable that I should not form my opinion until I watch the movie?

00:07:32.000 How many think that that's a reasonable thing to say?

00:07:35.440 Pretty reasonable, right?

00:07:37.940 To have an opinion on a movie without watching it?

00:07:42.840 What would that make me?

00:07:44.200 What would you think of me if I had a strong opinion about the movie, or didn't have any opinion,

00:07:50.860 but I had not watched it?

00:07:54.640 You're all wrong.

00:07:56.360 You're all dead wrong.

00:07:58.140 You could not be more wrong than the answers you're giving me right now.

00:08:02.600 And I'm going to change your mind, and you won't believe how easily I'll do it.

00:08:06.320 Because right now, the most obvious, clear, smart thing that anybody could say is that you have to watch the movie before forming an opinion.

00:08:18.540 That is the cleanest, most obvious thing anybody could ever tell you.

00:08:23.300 It's also 100% wrong.

00:08:27.000 100% wrong.

00:08:28.140 Couldn't be more wrong.

00:08:28.940 Now let me change your mind.

00:08:32.520 Give me 60 seconds.

00:08:34.740 60 seconds, I'll change your mind.

00:08:37.580 Watch the Michael Jackson documentary that says he absolutely, definitely molested a bunch of children.

00:08:45.440 Absolutely.

00:08:45.860 When you watch that documentary, you will be convinced that he definitely did those crimes. 0.92

00:08:50.940 Then watch the documentary that came out later that says that the accusations are bullshit and there's no way he did any of that stuff. 0.88

00:08:58.480 You know what will happen? 0.97

00:08:59.840 You will walk away completely convinced that he did nothing and that he was set up.

00:09:07.800 That's it.

00:09:08.500 I'm done.

00:09:08.840 If you think watching one documentary tells you something, you don't know anything.

00:09:14.380 You've learned nothing.

00:09:16.420 You've learned nothing.

00:09:18.260 So if you think that watching the documentary will give me an opinion that will tell me that either there was fraud or there was not, you're so wrong.

00:09:28.060 You could not be more wrong.

00:09:30.380 I will not form an opinion after watching the movie.

00:09:34.620 I promise you.

00:09:35.780 I won't.

00:09:37.000 I'll watch the movie.

00:09:37.860 I'm definitely going to watch the movie.

00:09:39.440 You don't have to argue about that.

00:09:40.860 But I'm not going to form an opinion from it.

00:09:43.440 Why?

00:09:44.440 Why?

00:09:45.260 Why will I not form an opinion after watching it?

00:09:48.460 And why did you?

00:09:49.520 You all formed an opinion.

00:09:51.360 Why are you all wrong and I'm right?

00:09:54.020 Because you haven't seen the opposite documentary, have you?

00:09:58.120 If somebody made another documentary whose only purpose was to debunk this documentary, do you think it would be persuasive?

00:10:05.660 It might all be lies, but it would be persuasive, right?

00:10:10.440 I'm not saying that to debunk would be the accurate one and this is not accurate.

00:10:14.660 It could easily be the opposite.

00:10:16.660 Or they're both inaccurate.

00:10:18.220 It could be any of those things. 0.99

00:10:19.680 But if you don't understand that any good documentary will convince you it's true, you haven't learned a fucking thing. 0.98

00:10:26.300 Let me say that again, because I want to insult you a little bit, because I want you to feel this. 0.98

00:10:32.140 Like, I want you to be mad at me right now.

00:10:34.260 Like, actually be a little pissed off at me. 0.98

00:10:37.200 If you think that watching any documentary gives you information, you're fucking wrong. 0.99

00:10:43.840 You're as wrong as you could fucking be. 0.99

00:10:46.000 You could not be more wrong about anything than that. 0.99

00:10:49.120 Now, but let me say clearly, I do have my suspicions about the election.

00:10:58.260 And I do imagine, while I'm quite sure of it, I'm sure if I watched the documentary, I would be even more certain at the end of it that something sketchy happened.

00:11:10.000 Those of you who have seen it, would you agree with that assessment?

00:11:12.520 That if I watch it, I will certainly come away with the impression that something sketchy happened.

00:11:19.980 Right?

00:11:21.040 Now, why do I have to watch it since I already know what will happen? 0.97

00:11:25.600 Doesn't your advice sound ridiculous now?

00:11:28.360 There's a 100% chance that I know what will happen if I watch it without even knowing what the content is. 0.90

00:11:34.980 There's a 100% chance it will convince me.

00:11:37.120 So that's the reason that I'm telling you that if you were convinced by the documentary, the only thing you learned is that documentaries are persuasive.

00:11:51.240 If you think you learned that an election was sketchy because you watched a documentary, and this is not about Dinesh D'Souza.

00:11:58.740 This is not about 2,000 Mules. 0.99

00:12:01.000 This is about thinking you learned something from a fucking documentary. 0.99

00:12:05.020 It doesn't work that way. 0.99

00:12:07.480 The documentary is meant to show you one side. 0.99

00:12:10.960 If you don't see the other side, you know absolutely fucking nothing. 1.00

00:12:16.680 Like, okay, I'm being too much of an asshole about this. 1.00

00:12:20.420 But how many of you are bothered and persuaded at the same time? 0.99

00:12:24.780 Have I made my point?

00:12:26.540 If you feel certainty because you watched a documentary, no matter how well done,

00:12:30.520 no matter how accurate, no matter how credible, no matter how correct,

00:12:35.300 if you formed a certain opinion by watching one side, you've learned nothing.

00:12:41.940 You've learned nothing in five years.

00:12:44.040 Nothing.

00:12:45.180 And I'm really disappointed.

00:12:47.300 Honestly.

00:12:48.360 I'm seriously disappointed.

00:12:50.680 Do you not see that you're being fed exactly what you wanted to believe?

00:12:54.820 How hard is it to convince you of something you already believed?

00:12:59.240 It's easy.

00:13:00.620 It's easy.

00:13:02.200 So just be a little bit more critical about this movie.

00:13:05.680 Please.

00:13:06.680 Please be more critical.

00:13:08.700 Doesn't mean it's wrong.

00:13:10.660 Doesn't mean it's wrong.

00:13:11.620 In fact, what I've heard of it sounds like a reasonable approach. 0.99

00:13:19.400 And by the way, I've looked at the debunk, and the debunk looks like bullshit. 0.97

00:13:24.760 Does that make you happy? 0.94

00:13:27.040 So I haven't seen the movie, but I've seen the debunk, and I read the debunk.

00:13:30.480 I was like, that's the best you can do for a debunk?

00:13:33.340 That maybe the cell phone data isn't as accurate as it should be, to know that somebody actually

00:13:39.200 put something in a box?

00:13:40.540 That's where you're going to bank your argument on?

00:13:44.100 We've got zillions of videos of people putting multiple things in boxes.

00:13:48.500 Then add the cell phone data that says the same people went to multiple boxes lots of times.

00:13:54.300 And you're telling me, you know, that, well, first of all, that doesn't prove that there's

00:13:59.420 a crime, but you definitely can't debunk it.

00:14:02.040 Do you think that could be debunked?

00:14:05.360 I don't think it can be proven or debunked. 1.00

00:14:08.100 So if you believe the debunk, you're a fucking idiot. 1.00

00:14:11.740 Let me say that again. 1.00

00:14:13.580 If you believed any debunk of the movie, you're a fucking idiot. 1.00

00:14:19.480 If you believe the movie because it agrees with what you believed, and you think that 1.00

00:14:25.660 watching a documentary tells you something, you're a fucking idiot. 1.00

00:14:31.340 Sorry. 1.00

00:14:32.040 Let me apologize to you before I go on.

00:14:38.780 I don't mean to offend, but I am trying to get your blood boiling a little bit, right?

00:14:44.620 Because I'm honestly concerned, like genuinely, I'm concerned if you believe documentaries.

00:14:54.000 If you think, you know, you learn to not believe the news, right?

00:14:58.600 Don't you feel better that you don't believe the news?

00:15:01.400 Don't believe documentaries.

00:15:03.360 And again, this has nothing to do with this documentary.

00:15:05.740 Just don't believe documentaries, period.

00:15:09.320 You learn not to believe the news.

00:15:11.400 This is your next lesson.

00:15:12.400 How many of you tried to watch 2,000 Mules, as I did, several times, and were thwarted each

00:15:21.820 time by various issues?

00:15:23.540 I did a little poll because I was wondering, am I just having some kind of massive boomer

00:15:28.880 problem here? 0.99

00:15:30.160 That every time I go to watch this fucking movie, I can't figure out how to do it? 0.99

00:15:33.660 And 30% of the people who responded said they couldn't figure out how to watch the movie. 0.98

00:15:40.880 Let me tell you, so this is a subset of my discussion the other day.

00:15:49.500 Let me apologize to Hugh. 0.95

00:15:52.160 I didn't mean to call you stupid Hugh, so I apologize for that. 0.98

00:15:58.440 What was I talking about? 0.98

00:15:59.560 Oh, so I've said before that streaming movies has become impossible to do because you can

00:16:06.600 never remember which platform you wanted to watch, and your password's always wrong, and

00:16:10.700 your credit card expired, and you can't find the thing, and it's not out yet, and there's

00:16:16.440 every other problem.

00:16:17.720 So I've tried now, I think, five times to purchase or watch the movie.

00:16:24.820 I've failed all five times.

00:16:26.320 Now, I'm still going to do it, because that's actually my normal amount of failing to watch

00:16:31.660 a live stream.

00:16:33.320 So once I clicked a link to go to Rumble, and the page never opened.

00:16:39.300 So one time Rumble just, I don't know, the server didn't work, or I don't know.

00:16:43.140 I don't know the reason.

00:16:45.200 I've clicked on several links that purport to be the movie but aren't.

00:16:49.140 I've clicked on several links that purport to be the movie but are really the trailer.

00:16:55.080 I've clicked on several links to places where it used to be, but it's canceled.

00:17:00.260 I've gone to Locals.

00:17:02.000 Now, by the way, I'm an investor in Locals.

00:17:05.720 I went to Locals, and there was a page I didn't recognize.

00:17:08.900 I couldn't tell if it was telling me to subscribe for a year or it was just buying the movie.

00:17:14.220 So I thought, I don't know, is there some place I could watch it for free?

00:17:20.140 Because I didn't want to put in my credit card information unless I had to.

00:17:23.660 Just the work.

00:17:24.520 It wasn't the seven bucks or whatever.

00:17:26.340 I didn't care about the money.

00:17:27.320 It was just in order to do the work.

00:17:29.340 So then I looked for it for free, and then I go to Rumble.

00:17:31.980 And Rumble, again, I got a trailer instead of the movie.

00:17:36.120 And then my Wi-Fi broke.

00:17:38.640 And then I finally went back to Locals and tried to buy it there,

00:17:42.480 because I figured, oh, it looks like some kind of special page just for content buying.

00:17:46.840 And it didn't say.

00:17:48.540 The page was so unclear, I didn't know if I was buying a subscription to Locals

00:17:52.760 or buying just the content.

00:17:54.680 I couldn't tell from the page.

00:17:57.640 And then finally I got to the point where I said, all right, I guess this is how I buy it.

00:18:03.120 So I started putting in my credit card information,

00:18:05.500 and I didn't have my credit card on me.

00:18:08.060 It's in another part of the house.

00:18:09.280 And where I have it written down, I have the old one.

00:18:13.980 And so I thought, I have a rule that I won't get up and go get my wallet.

00:18:18.600 I'll just cancel what I'm doing and do something else.

00:18:21.720 So that was the last time I tried.

00:18:24.600 So the next time I try, maybe I'll not try unless I have my credit card near me and everything.

00:18:30.240 So, by the way, so how many of you have a similar experience

00:18:32.880 where you went to watch the movie and you just got thwarted time and time again?

00:18:37.300 Am I in the comments?

00:18:42.160 Other people?

00:18:43.360 Yes, I'm seeing some yeses.

00:18:45.860 Now, again, this has almost nothing to do with a specific movie.

00:18:50.440 So this is not about Locals.

00:18:52.140 It's not about Rumble.

00:18:53.120 It's not about 2,000 Mules.

00:18:54.560 It's about streaming.

00:18:56.740 Streaming is now so hard, you just can't do it.

00:19:00.780 30% of the time you're going to do it, you just don't.

00:19:03.680 You end up doing something else instead.

00:19:05.200 Yeah, look at all the yeses to this.

00:19:07.300 Now, I know this is a boomer problem, right? 1.00

00:19:10.340 You don't hear anybody who's 30 years old arguing, you know, even talking about this stuff.

00:19:15.160 But there are a lot of boomers and we're trying to watch this thing. 0.96

00:19:18.000 So there's an interface problem.

00:19:20.640 All right.

00:19:22.840 Why isn't the supply chain the biggest story?

00:19:25.880 That it's the only thing we're talking about?

00:19:28.720 What's going on there?

00:19:30.320 What do you think?

00:19:30.960 Because it seemed to me that the supply chain was a, you know, end of civilization size problem.

00:19:37.320 Not really, but, you know, really, really big.

00:19:40.260 And then it just got worse, right?

00:19:42.940 So it was the worst problem in the world.

00:19:44.680 And then it even got worse.

00:19:47.540 But we don't really talk about it much at all.

00:19:50.400 And, yeah, we're talking about baby formula.

00:19:52.460 But here's the thing.

00:19:53.340 That's the exception that proves the rule, right?

00:19:56.080 The fact that we're only talking about baby formula and microchips now and then,

00:20:01.720 that seems a smallish problem, doesn't it?

00:20:04.660 Not if you have a baby.

00:20:05.580 It's the biggest problem in the world.

00:20:06.880 But in terms of everybody, and even the baby formula thing, probably we'll figure it out, I imagine.

00:20:16.400 But I'm wondering if this is what's happening.

00:20:19.600 Could it be that the supply chain is making enough corrections that the important stuff is getting through?

00:20:26.500 And that the things we're waiting for, we were sort of used to waiting for?

00:20:30.700 Prior to a supply chain problem, have you ever tried to buy furniture?

00:20:34.100 Buy a piece of furniture with no supply chain problems whatsoever.

00:20:39.760 Go back five years.

00:20:41.020 No problem with the supply chain.

00:20:43.020 How long does it take to get furniture?

00:20:45.880 Six months.

00:20:48.040 Which is normal.

00:20:49.180 How about ordering a car with no supply chain problems?

00:20:52.740 You order a car.

00:20:54.620 Months.

00:20:55.960 Months, right, to get a car.

00:20:57.840 And that's normal.

00:20:58.520 So the things that I'm waiting for are things that I thought I would wait for anyway.

00:21:06.140 And in some cases, maybe add two months.

00:21:08.440 But it was, you know, such as my drum set.

00:21:11.480 I ordered an electronic drum set.

00:21:13.340 It took several months.

00:21:15.740 But I don't really care.

00:21:17.680 You know, so maybe they say, well, if your ship has electronic drum sets on it, you can wait.

00:21:22.300 And if you've got something important on it, like a microchip, well, go to the front of the line.

00:21:27.660 So I'm guessing that there was an 80-20 thing that happened, where instead of just first come, first serve, they just do the 20% that's the 80% important.

00:21:39.020 And so we don't notice that things are 20% degraded because we're getting our important stuff.

00:21:44.020 Is that what's happening?

00:21:44.660 So I feel like that must be what's happening, where it's not being reported, but I'm assuming that the Adams Law of Slow-Moving Disasters is in play.

00:21:56.080 That there are millions of people making millions of small adjustments to get the important stuff to us faster and maybe slow the less important stuff.

00:22:05.200 I guess.

00:22:06.440 So, but I also don't know if we're near some kind of breaking point.

00:22:10.500 Are we literally going to run out of food?

00:22:12.460 At this point, I would say my grocery stores have more things than they did during the pandemic.

00:22:18.780 I don't know about baby formula.

00:22:21.120 So I have more things, and I would say that the weight for goods that I order by mail is not too bad.

00:22:28.340 I've probably ordered, I don't know, 25 things by Amazon in the past, maybe a month.

00:22:38.640 Say 25 things.

00:22:39.660 I think one of them is, and it's a trivial product, delayed a month.

00:22:47.880 That's about it.

00:22:49.060 And it was trivial.

00:22:52.800 All right.

00:22:53.380 Ports don't work that way, somebody says.

00:22:55.300 They don't work that way, but they could.

00:22:57.280 There's no reason you couldn't put the important ones to the front of the line.

00:23:01.080 I don't see any physical reason you couldn't do that.

00:23:04.540 Food is from the USA.

00:23:05.880 China stuff is delayed.

00:23:06.980 That's probably what's going on, that the food is mostly U.S. food.

00:23:12.260 But we've got massive droughts, and we've got problems with fertilizers and all kinds of things.

00:23:18.000 So we'll see.

00:23:18.400 Elon Musk tweeted this today, or yesterday.

00:23:27.500 If I die under mysterious circumstances, it's been nice knowing you.

00:23:32.900 What?

00:23:33.680 No further explanation.

00:23:35.600 If I die under suspicious circumstances, or mysterious.

00:23:40.240 Now, let me ask you this.

00:23:42.820 Do you think he's serious?

00:23:44.660 Do you think he's seriously concerned that somebody will kill him?

00:23:50.920 I think yes.

00:23:52.760 Yes.

00:23:53.340 I think that's real.

00:23:55.140 I think that's absolutely real.

00:23:57.180 Now, I don't think the odds are very high, but I think that's absolutely real.

00:24:01.120 Now, do you think that if you're the richest person in the world, you have access to, presumably, politicians and power brokers and the people who really can see behind the curtain?

00:24:11.520 Aren't you a little worried that somebody who can see behind the curtain way better than you can thinks that there's somebody back there who might murder him for what?

00:24:21.880 Buying Twitter and finding out what the deal was there?

00:24:25.040 I feel as if he already knows he's going to find something at Twitter that will be really, really bad for somebody who has power.

00:24:34.340 What do you think?

00:24:35.880 Now, he's being ambiguous here, so we don't know what topic he's even referring to.

00:24:40.820 We don't know if it's based on some specific information or just a general fear.

00:24:46.800 Could be just trolling.

00:24:47.960 Could be just being interesting.

00:24:49.420 Who knows?

00:24:50.340 But I'm worried about it because he knows more than you do about how stuff works in the real world.

00:25:00.000 I know a little bit and maybe more than some of you just because I have access to some stuff.

00:25:05.380 But he has way more access than just about anybody, right?

00:25:09.000 And he probably is already getting, here's my guess.

00:25:14.220 This is pure speculation.

00:25:16.760 Can you see any possibility that Twitter insiders are not already talking to Musk?

00:25:23.220 Don't you think that's already happening?

00:25:25.700 Don't you think there's somebody who wanted to suck up to him in the technical world and said,

00:25:29.220 look, before you get complete control of the company, let me tell you what's going on here and where to look.

00:25:35.520 I'll tell you where to find the bad stuff.

00:25:37.940 You don't think that's happening?

00:25:39.540 There's got to be somebody who thinks it's in their best interest to do exactly that.

00:25:43.500 There's got to be at least one secret conservative or patriot or just free speech person.

00:25:49.300 They don't even have to be Republican or anything.

00:25:51.780 But there has to be at least one person at Twitter who knows how to reach Musk and knows what the deal is.

00:25:59.480 Don't you think?

00:26:00.500 By now, he's probably heard at least rumors of what he might find.

00:26:06.520 And if the rumors about what he might find or how he might control Twitter also is enough to make him worried about being murdered,

00:26:15.580 there's probably something there.

00:26:19.700 But we'll see.

00:26:21.260 So after he tweets, if I die under mysterious circumstances, it's been nice knowing you,

00:26:25.520 his mother tweets, that's not funny.

00:26:30.200 And then he tweets back to his mother, Maya.

00:26:34.060 Elon tweets, sorry, I will do my best to stay alive.

00:26:37.160 How small the world gets when, you know, you feel like you're talking directly to Elon Musk

00:26:45.660 and then he's talking to his mom and you're part of the conversation.

00:26:49.260 It just makes the whole world seem so small and personal.

00:26:52.980 It's kind of awesome.

00:26:55.760 And then some Saudi person with a lot of followers was saying that if he,

00:27:02.900 something about a blessing if he dies. 0.83

00:27:04.560 And Elon Musk replied, I'm okay going to hell if I die 0.92

00:27:08.480 because the vast majority of all humans ever born will be there.

00:27:12.840 Now, remember when you thought that Trump was the best tweeter of all times?

00:27:18.160 And maybe he is.

00:27:19.240 Maybe he is.

00:27:20.700 But you can't get much better at tweeting than this.

00:27:24.720 And sure enough, his tweeting to replace all marketing is working again.

00:27:30.060 I mean, I could not be more interested in Twitter right now because of his involvement.

00:27:36.120 And I'm sure that my Twitter numbers are probably still going up.

00:27:40.080 I think it has more to do with him buying the company.

00:27:43.700 Let's try.

00:27:44.640 Let's see.

00:27:46.040 I'll check my Twitter growth now.

00:27:49.160 Because a lot of the conservative-leaning folks had big bumps.

00:27:55.020 Let's see what happens.

00:27:55.900 Is it still high?

00:27:56.780 Yes, it is.

00:27:59.300 So the day before Elon Musk was announcing things,

00:28:03.980 my numbers were anywhere from under 100 new followers a day to 300 would be a good day.

00:28:11.440 As soon as he bought it, these are the number of new followers.

00:28:14.940 3,300, 10 times.

00:28:17.440 So on the day that he bought it, I got 10 times the number of new followers.

00:28:20.140 The next day 20 times, next day 10 times, next day 15 times, next day about 8 times.

00:28:28.960 And we're still at, today or yesterday was 856 new followers.

00:28:34.420 So it's some kind of a multiple or two or three or something or 10 of number of followers.

00:28:42.720 And I don't feel that that's just the shadow banning thing being loosened.

00:28:51.140 I feel like it might be just more people coming to the platform.

00:28:54.700 So I think his marketing might be working.

00:28:57.240 And by the way, that's what he says.

00:28:58.680 He says it's just people coming to the platform.

00:29:01.460 He might be right.

00:29:02.400 Anyway, I've noticed that Elon has responded directly to Mike Cernovich at least several times.

00:29:11.080 And it's interesting to see how much he's on, that Cernovich is on Musk's radar.

00:29:17.840 They clearly have, you know, some commonality of thinking about some of these important things.

00:29:22.840 And one of the most interesting ways to watch the news is to watch who knows who, to know who's influencing whom and, you know, what alliances are being formed.

00:29:37.380 And so Mike Cernovich printed out a left-wing account that was talking violently and noting that that person had not been banned by Twitter.

00:29:48.920 And Elon Musk responded to that tweet from Cernovich saying that Twitter obviously has a strong left-wing bias.

00:29:56.000 So there it is.

00:29:59.300 So there's no doubt about what Elon Musk intends, nor about what he thinks about this whole situation, which I love.

00:30:06.960 Are you following this whole situation with Steve Schmidt?

00:30:10.140 He was one of the Lincoln Project anti-Trumper famous people.

00:30:14.460 And he went on this tweeting tirade, where for somebody followed it and said for 24 hours, he just kept tweeting like crazy and hardly took any time off from tweeting.

00:30:31.700 And it takes a minute and a half just to scroll through all of his tweets for that one day.

00:30:36.900 And people are asking, is there something wrong with him?

00:30:42.240 You know, does he have a mental issue or is there some kind of drug he's on?

00:30:45.780 And of course, we don't know, right?

00:30:47.380 We're just watching him act differently.

00:30:49.900 But as someone smart said, the only times they've ever seen this kind of a change in behavior wasn't because of mental health.

00:30:58.420 It wasn't because of a sudden mental health problem.

00:31:01.140 But people have seen sudden changes like this when some kind of drug was involved.

00:31:08.080 Now, I'm not suggesting he's on any drugs.

00:31:10.660 I'm just saying his behavior looks unusual for his past behavior.

00:31:15.540 And it looked like drugs to me.

00:31:21.660 So, again, I'm not making that allegation because we're just observers.

00:31:26.260 But there's something going on.

00:31:27.560 And I think that we have to, and somebody says he's a narcissist and that's what's going on.

00:31:33.640 It could be.

00:31:34.400 It could be that that's all that's going on.

00:31:36.300 But the Amber Heard or Amber Turd trial has definitely alerted us to how a certain group of people act.

00:31:46.740 You know, with projection and gaslighting and, you know, lying about everything and blah, blah, blah, blah.

00:31:52.200 And it seems to me that this looks exactly like something's going on there.

00:32:00.520 So there's either, you know, personality disorder or mental illness, which are sort of cousins,

00:32:06.320 or some kind of change in medication or drug situation.

00:32:12.140 But watching somebody at this level of, I guess, you know, what do we call it, prominence,

00:32:21.640 watching him sort of melt down in public.

00:32:24.160 I hate to use that meltdown because people use that about me whenever I get on a rant.

00:32:27.980 He's melting down.

00:32:29.460 So I withdraw that word.

00:32:31.740 But there's something going on.

00:32:34.380 And I think that we have to be careful about knowing what is a political opinion and what is a health problem.

00:32:40.020 And I'm not sure we're good at that.

00:32:44.820 Oh, cope is a bot word, yeah.

00:32:47.640 I feel like we should be a little smarter about knowing what's a health problem.

00:32:52.040 Wall Street Journal has an article in which they talk about a study that said kids who have healthy early attachments to a caregiver,

00:33:00.960 such as a parent, so if they have a good, loving, protected relationship with a parent, at least one,

00:33:06.600 they'll be in better shape to withstand the, let's see, the lure of social media.

00:33:13.800 And the social media won't bother them as much because they've had some love and care from a parent.

00:33:21.180 Now, that's one interpretation, is that the kids who had early good associations with parents can resist social media better.

00:33:30.420 Here's the other interpretation.

00:33:31.740 Every kid is different.

00:33:36.260 How about that?

00:33:37.980 How about that's the whole explanation?

00:33:40.060 How about some kids are born the kind of kid who will easily form an attachment to an adult?

00:33:47.360 Do you think every kid is capable of forming a strong attachment to an adult?

00:33:51.920 It's not up to the parent.

00:33:55.860 The kid is part of the process, right?

00:33:58.240 Have you not been around enough kids to know that some form attachments with adults and some don't?

00:34:03.780 And the adult would act the same every time.

00:34:06.340 It's always the kid.

00:34:07.600 The kid decides if they have an attachment to you.

00:34:10.180 You don't get to decide that.

00:34:11.920 It's not your decision how attached a kid is going to be to you.

00:34:15.480 It's the kid's decision.

00:34:16.600 And have you ever seen, you know, three kids raise the same, but one of them has an attachment and one doesn't? 0.99

00:34:23.220 I mean, you know, this is such an obviously bullshit study. 0.96

00:34:28.700 Because to me, the biggest part of this is just that the kids are biologically, genetically, they have different impulses. 0.99

00:34:37.100 Some of them have an impulse to be close to a parent.

00:34:40.020 Some don't.

00:34:41.600 Or some act differently.

00:34:42.780 Maybe they have the same desire, but they act differently to get it.

00:34:46.600 So I would say this is yet another study that you shouldn't put any credibility in whatsoever.

00:34:54.580 Well, here's the story that I find most interesting today.

00:34:59.580 So Russia had its May 9th Victory Day celebration.

00:35:04.840 And it's a World War II victory celebration.

00:35:07.900 And normally they parade their military stuff and they talk about how awesome they are.

00:35:12.120 And people were expecting Biden, or not Biden, they were expecting Putin to say something like they were having victories in Ukraine, but he didn't.

00:35:22.100 So he claimed no victory in Ukraine, even partial victory.

00:35:26.440 No victory he claims.

00:35:27.740 But here's what he did say.

00:35:34.100 He said that the Russian soldiers are fighting bravely in Ukraine.

00:35:38.300 They're fighting bravely.

00:35:40.160 Now here is the linguistic path that this has taken.

00:35:44.540 At the beginning of the war, all the smart people said, and of course, I don't think any real smart people said this.

00:35:51.760 Some smart people is sort of in quotes.

00:35:55.720 Let's say the media was saying that Russia would just conquer Ukraine in two days and in and out.

00:36:03.120 Now, then they went from, they'll crush them in 48 hours to, okay, it's not going to be 48 hours.

00:36:11.800 Come on, people.

00:36:13.340 You know, even the United States took longer than that to conquer Iraq.

00:36:18.920 You know, two days was sort of hyperbole.

00:36:21.940 It never really meant two days.

00:36:24.100 Come on.

00:36:25.060 It really meant that Russia is so much stronger military that they will definitely win.

00:36:30.840 Yeah, it just might take a little longer, but they're definitely, definitely going to win.

00:36:34.840 It just takes a little longer.

00:36:36.600 All right?

00:36:37.040 So we went from two days they're going to win to, well, they're going to win.

00:36:40.980 It's just going to take a while.

00:36:43.240 And then the next step we have achieved, in which Putin says that his team is fighting bravely.

00:36:51.140 Let me give you some advice.

00:36:53.460 Never join the team that's fighting bravely.

00:36:57.060 Do you know what fighting bravely means?

00:36:58.980 It means you're losing.

00:37:00.840 Nobody who's winning is called fighting bravely.

00:37:06.020 When people are winning, it's called winning.

00:37:10.260 Victory.

00:37:11.900 Winning.

00:37:13.300 They conquered this land.

00:37:15.240 They beat this army.

00:37:16.820 They won.

00:37:18.480 Fighting.

00:37:19.700 And I'm not arguing that Russia's losing.

00:37:22.920 I'm not arguing that. 0.99

00:37:24.060 I'm saying that the linguistic path went all the way from easy win to tough win to, oh, shit, at least we're fighting bravely. 0.98

00:37:33.660 To me, that sounds like Russia feels they're losing. 0.98

00:37:38.240 But they're fighting bravely.

00:37:40.440 Now, you could say, Scott, you're reading too much into this.

00:37:43.680 To which I say, yeah, maybe.

00:37:44.880 But this linguistic path is very clear.

00:37:49.260 It's very clear.

00:37:50.880 I didn't make this up.

00:37:52.680 I mean, you could look at the coverage yourself.

00:37:55.140 It did go from two days to, oh, they'll get it done.

00:37:58.200 It'll just take a while.

00:37:59.660 To fighting bravely.

00:38:01.440 That really happened.

00:38:02.300 And suddenly the news coverage from there seems to be all the same.

00:38:10.500 There's more fighting in X.

00:38:12.260 Tomorrow, let me predict the headlines tomorrow.

00:38:15.640 There's more fighting in Mariupol.

00:38:18.840 There's more fighting in the East.

00:38:21.520 The Ukrainians have pushed back the Russians in some places that probably aren't important. 0.75

00:38:27.360 Still having trouble getting weapons to Ukraine.

00:38:31.440 Right?

00:38:33.300 How hard would it be for me to tell you the news tomorrow?

00:38:37.300 Pretty easy.

00:38:38.440 Oh, somebody's reading God's Debris.

00:38:41.000 I think you'll find that quite timely.

00:38:48.580 I fought bravely to stream 2,000 mules, yes.

00:38:52.400 But I failed.

00:38:53.620 I will succeed.

00:38:56.120 The Poland ambassador from Russia, so Russia's Poland ambassador, one of them,

00:39:00.600 was at an event to mark, I guess, the Victory Day, and he was hit with red paint at a Poland Victory Day event.

00:39:08.740 So the ambassador's standing there, and the interesting thing is he's not trying to clean the paint off his face.

00:39:15.720 He went full of Jussie Smollett and left the paint on and just made sure everybody got a good picture of it.

00:39:22.120 And I thought to myself, that's a pretty good diplomat.

00:39:26.720 That's a pretty good diplomat.

00:39:28.500 That he didn't get angry when he was covered with paint, and he didn't even take it off.

00:39:32.780 He just let everybody take a picture of it.

00:39:34.440 Interesting.

00:39:39.020 Why do you still use MSM as a news source?

00:39:42.060 I use them as a mocking source, if you haven't watched my content.

00:39:48.300 Well, I think there's going to be a lot more of that.

00:39:50.120 I think it's going to be real tough for any kind of Russian diplomat to feel safe in any country anywhere.

00:39:55.860 I think Russian diplomats are, unfortunately, going to be targeted.

00:40:00.180 I don't endorse that, but I think it's going to happen.

00:40:06.340 More of it, anyway.

00:40:08.000 All right, here's an interesting story.

00:40:09.680 It was in the New York Post, an article by Melanie Notkin.

00:40:13.680 And she's talking about the wage gap and the trouble that women will have finding a partner. 0.54

00:40:20.020 Now, the good news is that women's incomes are up. 1.00

00:40:24.700 And good news for women, anyway, is that in 2021, nearly 60% of college students were women. 0.99

00:40:34.660 So that means that men are moving into more labor types of jobs, which would be lower paying, typically.

00:40:42.000 And women are moving into what could be, at least if they take the right majors, higher paying jobs. 1.00

00:40:47.320 And the article goes on, Melanie Notkin's article, reporting that it's really hard to find a woman.

00:40:55.400 And one of the speculative reasons, I'm sorry, it's really hard for the women to find a man that they're willing to, let's say, marry,

00:41:02.260 because the men earn less than the women.

00:41:06.140 And traditionally, from an evolutionary perspective, women have been attracted to men who have resources.

00:41:15.160 It makes sense, right?

00:41:17.600 Because you need resources to stay alive and raise babies and stuff like that.

00:41:22.640 So what happens if women are the ones making the money and having the babies, which looks like what's happening? 1.00

00:41:30.980 Then men are sort of, kind of don't have a purpose.

00:41:35.580 And so, what happens when women just can't find men, the kind of men they want to marry, 0.83

00:41:42.280 because the kind of men they can find are just, they're not killing it?

00:41:49.680 What happens then?

00:41:51.320 I don't know.

00:41:52.740 But something's going to happen. 1.00

00:42:01.800 Somebody's complaining that I made his penis obsolete. 0.99

00:42:04.320 Sorry. 1.00

00:42:07.280 Yeah.

00:42:08.460 And so I think that there is a, definitely a big shift going on.

00:42:14.100 I think the women are becoming men and the men are becoming women. 0.96

00:42:17.980 And I mean that in a hyperbolic but also in a literal sense,

00:42:24.360 that the women are becoming more masculine, the men are becoming more feminine.

00:42:29.500 I don't know what the reason is.

00:42:30.800 I don't know if that's social media or that's diet or lifestyle or, I don't know what that is.

00:42:36.640 But it's definitely happening, wouldn't you say?

00:42:38.580 Wouldn't you say that that is a very, it might be soy.

00:42:42.440 It might be.

00:42:43.640 I wouldn't rule that out.

00:42:44.660 Well, estrogen in the water, somebody says.

00:42:52.640 Who knows?

00:42:55.040 I do know that our system of traditional marriage will probably become just one option.

00:43:02.820 It already is.

00:43:03.640 But I think the non-traditional marriage area is going to explode. 0.99

00:43:10.200 It's going to be bigger.

00:43:11.420 I do not see a trend back toward traditional marriage.

00:43:14.780 I think we have a one-way trend away from it.

00:43:17.340 That's what I think.

00:43:18.280 There will always be traditional marriages.

00:43:20.060 There will always be plenty of people who want them.

00:43:21.960 But as a percentage of the total, I think it will continue to decrease.

00:43:26.820 I'm not saying that's good.

00:43:28.860 I'm not saying I want it to happen.

00:43:30.380 I'm just saying that it looks like that's an obvious trend.

00:43:34.460 And here's the problem that I see.

00:43:39.000 Imagine 200 years ago, there was nothing to do but work and try to survive.

00:43:43.500 If you married the neighbor's daughter, well, you were lucky and that probably worked out. 0.95

00:43:49.300 But imagine you're in this world where you have infinite choices, it seems like, for everything.

00:43:54.080 And you could shop for a new mate anywhere in the world and ship him in if things click.

00:43:58.880 I feel like our pickiness is through the roof because we can be picky.

00:44:05.020 If you couldn't be picky, then you get over it and you just, all right, I guess I'll marry the neighbor's daughter.

00:44:10.660 But if you can be picky, then you will be.

00:44:13.740 And if we are picky in all of our other decisions, from what app to use to what clothes to wear to everything,

00:44:19.460 if we become super, super picky, I think marriage is doomed.

00:44:26.120 Because you're going to get married and then you get real picky about your spouse and then it's over.

00:44:30.720 So I think our pickiness and the explosion of choices and options makes marriage essentially obsolete.

00:44:39.680 It'll always be the right solution for some group of people.

00:44:42.640 That'll never change, I don't think.

00:44:44.260 But it's mostly obsolete for most people pretty soon, I think.

00:44:52.400 Yeah, try getting off the Internet and joining the club.

00:44:55.520 You know, if I did not do this for work, I'm pretty sure I would just get off of social media.

00:45:03.200 I think.

00:45:04.280 I mean, I don't know.

00:45:05.200 I don't know that for sure.

00:45:06.400 But I don't find value in any social media beyond the fact that I have a functional value right here.

00:45:15.220 It helps me watch the news and interpret it.

00:45:17.860 But if I were not doing this and I were only just trying to have a job and a family or whatever,

00:45:23.880 I don't think I'd even watch the news.

00:45:26.140 I wouldn't pay attention to anything except that I do it professionally.

00:45:29.440 Erica's in the shower.

00:45:33.460 That means that the important part of our presentation is over.

00:45:40.780 You've never had a biological family, so your understanding is less.

00:45:47.320 All right, I'm going to try not to go off on you for that comment, but I really want to.

00:45:52.940 Well, I'll try to do it without going off on you.

00:45:54.760 It is true that if you don't have a biological family, you can't understand it.

00:46:01.160 But the concept is people who have not had a biological family.

00:46:05.300 So everybody I'm talking about is people who have the same situation as me,

00:46:09.380 which is they have not experienced it.

00:46:11.740 And I would acknowledge that if they did experience it,

00:46:13.940 they would be addicted to it and they would like it.

00:46:16.200 Because when you have a kid, you're pretty happy you had a kid most of the time.

00:46:19.720 Most of the time, you're pretty happy you did it.

00:46:21.100 So your comment is an accurate statement

00:46:25.520 that I would have a different appreciation of it if I had a biological child,

00:46:30.340 but that wasn't the topic.

00:46:32.420 The topic was people who haven't done it

00:46:34.500 and decide not to because it doesn't work for them.

00:46:38.420 They don't see the benefit.

00:46:40.580 But I agree that if they went ahead and did it anyway,

00:46:42.700 they would find reasons they liked it.

00:46:44.020 They would still get...

00:46:49.020 Bio-dads are donors. 0.52

00:47:01.800 It's not too late for you.

00:47:03.020 You should try it.

00:47:03.880 Yeah, it's too late for me.

00:47:10.400 Scott likes to support those who get censored.

00:47:14.020 Do you think that's the same question?

00:47:16.100 Do you think me blocking somebody is a question of censorship?

00:47:20.740 How many people think that?

00:47:22.720 How many think that me blocking trolls is censorship?

00:47:28.660 Because you can still see them, right?

00:47:30.960 I only block them for myself, don't I?

00:47:35.260 You can still see them interacting.

00:47:37.380 I'm not blocking them for you.

00:47:38.920 I'm just blocking them so I don't see them.

00:47:40.280 I feel like that's just me deciding what I want to look at.

00:47:43.460 That's not censorship.

00:47:48.920 My reasons for not having kids are the same as AOCs. 1.00

00:47:52.700 Does AOC say she doesn't want to bring somebody into the world

00:47:55.400 because of climate change?

00:47:57.260 I've never heard her say that.

00:47:59.220 I don't think she says that.

00:48:00.900 I'll bet she doesn't say that.

00:48:01.920 That doesn't sound true.

00:48:02.740 All right.

00:48:08.600 Yeah, either go Luddite or Cyborg.

00:48:11.080 Those are your two choices.

00:48:12.960 All right.

00:48:13.380 Do we need a what?

00:48:14.280 A mini-skug.

00:48:17.780 You don't want a little Scott.

00:48:19.140 Oh, those Virginity Rocks t-shirts have nothing to do with preferring virginity.

00:48:27.480 So, yeah, that's a big brand for the young kids, the teens.

00:48:31.240 There's a brand called Virginity Rocks,

00:48:33.820 or I don't know if it's a brand or it's a saying,

00:48:35.800 but they have it on their clothing.

00:48:37.460 It doesn't mean they like virginity.

00:48:40.760 That's not what that's saying.

00:48:42.480 They like the brand, that's all.

00:48:44.680 All right.

00:48:45.000 Oh, somebody's asking if I could father AOC's baby.

00:48:50.500 Sure.

00:48:51.900 Sure.

00:48:53.100 I'm all in.

00:48:54.680 Could you tell her that the deal is on,

00:48:57.460 and I'll father her baby if she likes? 0.69

00:49:00.640 No, not really.

00:49:02.320 Not really.

00:49:04.980 Not really.

00:49:08.240 Do I think that Elon has people doing his tweets for him

00:49:11.500 because they seem so good?

00:49:13.180 No.

00:49:13.520 Because when he talks in person,

00:49:16.520 he is, you can just tell his tweets are his.

00:49:19.780 Like, nobody can write those tweets.

00:49:22.320 It would be impossible for someone else to write Trump's good tweets.

00:49:28.300 You know, maybe somebody did the boring ones,

00:49:29.880 like announcing something.

00:49:31.280 But the good tweets that Trump did, those were Trump.

00:49:34.680 Now, I actually saw, stood in the room

00:49:37.380 and watched Trump assemble a tweet.

00:49:40.700 So I've seen it in real time.

00:49:42.240 I've watched Trump tweet

00:49:44.260 and designed the tweet as I was standing there.

00:49:49.160 So I know he tweets himself.

00:49:50.660 Now, he didn't send it.

00:49:52.440 He dictated it to Dan Scafido,

00:49:55.300 who presumably sent it.

00:49:59.040 That was Trump I was talking about.

00:50:00.700 All right, that's all for now.

00:50:03.920 And I will talk to you later, YouTube.

00:50:06.200 See you tomorrow.

00:50:06.660 I'll see you tomorrow.

00:50:10.440 We will talk to you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 09, 2022

Episode 1738 Scott Adams： Elon Musk Worries About Being Murdered, Supply Chain Mysteries, And More

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