Episode 1741 Scott Adams： Lots Of Appalling Or Funny News Today
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
154.23288
Summary
In this episode, I talk about the weirdest thing that happened to me while on a writer's trip, and how technology has helped me deal with it. I also talk about a bird that lives on the reef that screams all night long and it's not white noise.
Transcript
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locals uh it has come to my attention that i'm not very good at telling time
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yes it's true i was positive this was the usual time i'm in a different time zone uh but uh i
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i'm positive that when i came here there was a two hour time difference
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but i'm positive that when i woke up at there's a three hour time difference
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i don't know but i spent all day yesterday apparently in the wrong hour maybe i don't know
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or something um but let me tell you the funniest part about where i am so first of all i'm on a
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on my on a writer's trip i needed to get out of the house and especially away from my dog
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um because my dog is very needy and so and uh so are kids sometimes so i had to actually get
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out of my environment so i could get some work done so i uh picked a secret location
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where i would just have a balcony and i would just look at the the ocean and uh life would be good
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there was however one thing that it would have been nice if the hotel had mentioned before i booked it
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it's just it's just a little thing um the first room they put me in uh and of course i told them my
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highest priority is the view because basically i'm just gonna be sitting on the balcony writing for a week
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so i said the most important thing like everything else doesn't matter service doesn't matter just
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give me a view the first room they put me in had a
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a nice view of the beach that they covered by putting bushes in front of the the entire front of the view
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so if you were sitting on your balcony you could see the sky
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it's the most beautiful beach you could ever look at in your life
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and they intentionally put bushes in front of it and charge the same as if you had a view
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they can't even make that up but wait here's the best part and so last night i i hear uh some crying
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baby i'm like wow that's a that is one loud crying baby because it sounded like it was coming maybe from
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another balcony or another room and the more i listened to it i was like whoa that is not a crying
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baby that is like more than one crying baby and then i'm listening carefully and i'm like
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holy hell that's not two crying babies that sounds like 50 crying babies
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like really crying babies like continually crying from about 6 p.m last night until there's
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still crying right now just screaming crying and i'm not talking about a little bit of crying
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i'm talking about really wailing turns out there's some kind of bird that lives on the reef down there
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that screams all night and it screams exactly like a crying baby all night it never stops it's just
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screaming baby sound now suppose you went on vacation to some place where you wanted to relax
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and you were wondering about the nature of the hotel and and what the accommodations would be
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do you think that one of the things that they might have mentioned when they said well your room is a
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certain size with these accommodations you've got these features and you've got a nice view of the
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ocean it's a very nice view the view in the second room i moved to is excellent however i feel that they
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should have mentioned that i must listen to 100 screaming babies all night long
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even through the closed doors even when i'm wearing my echo
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headphones headphones so loud that the echo cancellation which is actually really good in the
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the uh the the pros this version of the earbuds the echo cancellation is excellent
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penetrates it like nothing however i found the best hack i take a youtube video
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and it turns out every ocean sounds like every other ocean so when i put in the earbuds and turn
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up the ocean sound and go outside i'm looking at a real ocean while i'm listening to a fake ocean in my head
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and my and my brain doesn't know the difference it's not white noise it's exactly like i'm listening to the ocean outdoors
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so thank you for technology i can actually pretend to be at the ocean while being at the real ocean
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how about that all right that's not why you're here let's talk about all the things in the news
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um so i've been talking about the film 2000 mules dinesh de souza's film that uh alleges that there
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were many people delivering multiple bets in the 2020 election uh and i've been looking at the debunks
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to see how good the debunks are um wait a minute wait a minute i'm doing something completely wrong here am i
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not something completely there's something missing isn't there there's something missing
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is it the simultaneous sip yeah it is it is and my other technical problem is i didn't bring my cheat
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sheet so i'm going to need you in the comments to tell me the simultaneous sip go so i can read it
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i'll bet you know it all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass uh blah blah blah and blah blah blah blah
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and join me now for the simultaneous sip are you ready a tank or chalice or stein a canteen jug or flask go
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a vessel of any tank maybe you would remember my my memory works in a weird way uh-oh
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uh-oh i'm gonna lose my power here in a moment sorry another technical difficulty it's gonna be that kind
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today uh we're powering up here we do have a solution for all what the hell it's not possible
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so i was looking for any debunks on that movie 2000 mules and i came across an article in the
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washington post by philip bump in which he also makes the claim that the ap made that the precision
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of the mobile phone data that showed that multiple people were going to multiple drop boxes and uh uh
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or at least allegedly it seemed to indicate that and uh the the debunk is oh you can't tell if they
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dropped off ballots which isn't really an exact debunk because the film doesn't claim that the that the
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that that data proves anybody balance but together with the videos of people doing multiple ballots
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plus the cell phone data it creates a story that might be true and might not be but it's certainly
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a big enough issue that the country is being torn apart apart by it and wouldn't you agree that whether
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it's true or not true at this point we need to figure that out do we all agree on that
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i i have not formed an opinion as to whether this is reliable i'm pretty agnostic about it at this
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point but it's definitely a big question and it's definitely a big enough question that it could tear
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the entire republic apart so if you have something that's that important i don't think that ignoring
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it is the right play because the longer it is ignored the more credible will be the claims am i right
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the longer we ignore it the more credible it becomes because why are they ignoring it if it's debunkable
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so philip bump um i i made a comment about how weak his debunk was so i retweeted his article and
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noted that it was weak uh philip bump came back at me with a retweet and uh i forget exact words but
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about my comment coming from the guy who thought that the
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philip bump's uh reaction to my comment about his work was to make a comment about me who does that
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what kind of a person comments are not the work of the person or the opinion but rather the person
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themselves oh keith keith so i said okay keith and i've been using okay keith for the last day
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it really really makes me feel good because people don't know what it means and that's the best part
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so it just it just takes people completely out of the game so they'll say some horrible thing about
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something i allegedly did or did not do and i'll just say okay keith and they don't know what to do
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it's just the end of the conversation now eventually somebody will explain it to him it's a
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keith olbermann reference that keith olbermann is one who comes after a person instead of the argument
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um so then i thought about it for a moment i thought you know the okay keith isn't quite enough in this
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case and so philip his his uh his criticism of me is that um i'm a person who was so dumb
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here i'm reading between the lines but i think this is the implication so dumb that i believe that
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the supreme court leak was a hoax and how wrong i was oh how wrong i was and so i responded
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why would it be what would cause a person like me a consumer of news what what would be
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a series of events or an environment what would be a situation in which something that's completely
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true and reported in the news could be regarded as probably a hoax what what kind of situation
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would cause a person like me a reasonable person in most cases to believe that maybe the news was
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fake could it be people like philip bump could be people who write articles that are not true
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and pass them off as news i'm not entirely sure it's my fault that i believe that a true story was
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fake and i'm not entirely sure that that's even an insult because if you hear a true story and you
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say i don't believe it i feel like you're a good consumer now once the evidence came out
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i changed my opinion didn't i as soon as the supreme court said oh yeah that's real i said oh i'm
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completely wrong 100 wrong no no walking it back 100 wrong and now i changed my opinion what's wrong
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with that is that really a criticism because i think if you see something that's extraordinary
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in the news it's usually not true so there's probably something like a 95 correlation between
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extraordinary things like that like a leak in the supreme court's never happened before so when you
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see something that's extraordinary in the news if you don't first think it's fake you're not a good
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consumer of news well i mean let me say you shouldn't you shouldn't assume it's fake you should assume
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it's unproven and there's a good chance it's fake and that's what i did so i'm actually proud of
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being wrong about that or is that just me yeah that is the indians painting behind me i'm looking at
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comments 48 hour rule well you know i'm not sure i would apply the 48 hour rule to myself in that case
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i think i just i was wrong but i was wrong for a reason that i'm not sure is entirely the fault of any
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consumer if you don't believe the news i'm not sure that's your fault do you feel me if you told me
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you saw a news report and you didn't believe it maybe you weren't positive it's untrue but you're
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simply not believing it yet i would say good consumer all right um now this leads us to the ap so the ap
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was the only one who debunked this but would you like to hear a good debunk which i tweeted around
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and because i'm a horrible person i do not have the name of the person who did this let's see if i
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can quickly find it but there's a video going around that i retweeted of somebody who's uh talking about
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the 2000 mules movie and giving what i thought was a really balanced opinion meaning that uh he complained
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about their debunks being useless um yeah it's a video it doesn't have a name on it but it was really
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good i don't know who does this all right well if he doesn't put his name on it i guess that's not my
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fault but let me give you his argument the argument was this that the movie claims uh and really it's
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probably most provocative claim is that there were multiple people going to multiple drop boxes
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right now the videos that were shown were one-offs one person going to a drop box with multiple
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ballots that by itself is not necessarily illegal because it might have been from family members
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who knows and and honestly if they were just people who were taking it for their neighbor and
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they were just doing a favor it might be technically illegal but i'm not going to care about that right
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not going to really care but here was a good uh a good criticism of the movie the most provocative
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claim is that the same person went to multiple drop boxes but there's no evidence shown of that
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in other words they have access to lots of video footage of people at drop boxes and they have data
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suggesting that the same person would go to multiple drop boxes yet there is not even one example
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of one person going to more than one drop box now i don't know if that's actually a reasonable thing
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to ask for because it's possible that the places where they have video
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this is just speculation so i'm not claiming this is true but one could imagine that the video covers
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let's say five percent of the drop boxes because not everything's gonna have a video will it how
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many of the drop boxes are on video with security cameras can't be that many unless they're not all on
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video are they so what if only say five percent are on video and it would just be too hard to find one
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person going to more than one under that situation so he says by law they were all supposed to have a
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video interesting now if that's true if it's true that they all by law well that would be different by
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state i would imagine but if it were true so these are good questions right if it were true that they
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all have video why wouldn't dinesh find you at least one example just one of any one person who went to
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multiple boxes with multiple belts now how many of you were aware that that was missing from the movie
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how many of you knew that the primary really not the primary claim but let's say by far the strongest
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claim if it were true the strongest claim would be that one person went to multiple places with multiple
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things right so so that's that's really missing here's the second thing that's missing
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who else is looking at dinesh's data you haven't seen any data i haven't seen any data so we're all
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talking about data that nobody's seen except the people who made the movie can you trust people who make
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documentaries forget about dinesh d'souza just a general question can you trust that somebody who
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makes a documentary about especially a political topic can you trust that they're telling the truth
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absolutely not and this has nothing to do with dinesh nothing all right so so separate him from the
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question for the moment if he can it has nothing to do with who made it you cannot trust a political
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documentary period i'm not sure anybody makes one to be trusted i'm not sure they make it to be fair
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i don't even think it's a purpose is it does anybody think that dinesh was trying to make a totally
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balanced uh film do you think you do you think he set out you know here's what i'd like to do i would
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like to make a film that is so balanced nobody's going to like it because that's what would happen
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if we're balanced the right would say i don't like that that balance part the left would say i don't
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like that other part then nobody would watch it if you want a movie that a lot of people watch and why
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else make it you're gonna you're gonna make it kind of partisan so that at least one side embraces it
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fully that's how you make money now again i'm not reading anybody's mind i'm not i'm not assuming any
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intentions i'm making a general statement about a political documentary that if you're starting off
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with trusting that that's a big mistake right it has nothing to do with who made it it's just a big
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mistake to trust them in general all right now uh so there are two gigantic problems one is not showing
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more than one not showing one person going to more than one box that's just really glaringly missing
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and number two who even knows if the data is real how many times have people referred to data that
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wasn't even real we just went through a whole pandemic where the pharmaceuticals were giving
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us data and we didn't believe any of it or some people did some people didn't so we're
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we're sort of at a in a world in which data is not believable how about that climate change data
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do you believe all of that some do some don't but nothing is credible anymore so if you have it if
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you're making a case based on data if this were the year 2000 what would you say about the quality of
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the case it's based on data probably pretty good but now it's 2022 and we're smarter our level of
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awareness is going way up and now we know that just because somebody has data and analysis and experts
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did it and all the right qualified people were involved that doesn't mean anything in terms of how
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real it is nothing you think you would but man it doesn't um
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yeah how many organizations can receive the data i don't know i'm so so there may
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i'm not saying that dinesh d'souza doesn't have good responses to these criticisms in fact
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in fact if what he's doing now you have to factor in that he's smart right
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so factor in that the maker of the documentary is known to be a very smart person so you can rule
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out motives that dumb people would do right so so that the subset of potential motives is probably
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things that smart people do and one thing a smart person might do is make a claim that people don't
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believe and get them all excited about you know criticizing it and then making the data available
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and proving your right because that would be the biggest impact to let people get really worked up
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about it thinking it's fake and then showing it to them and they're like oh this is real
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all right you're uh i'm being asked to be quiet for a moment so you can hear the crying babies i'll do that
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can you hear all right they're not crying babies if you're joining us late there are birds outside
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on the beach that is a certain kind of bird that screams like a crying baby all night all night
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never stops anyway um let's talk about something else
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uh google is reintroducing google glasses but they i think they finally figured out
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how to make a killer app so now the google glasses can translate other languages in real time
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so you can actually somebody could be talking to you and your google glasses will print out what they're
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saying in real time so you can have an actual conversation with somebody who speaks a different
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language you just put both put on your glasses and just start talking holy holy cow wow that is so cool
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so maybe this will be what makes uh google glasses work because you can imagine that any um any business
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where uh let's say the employee speaks the employees all speak spanish and in california there are lots
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of them where all the employees speak spanish uh wouldn't that be helpful real helpful all right i might get
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some of those all right so there's a big vote in the senate when in the house um about abortion and
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check me if i'm wrong with chuck schumer wanted to put it to a vote to get everybody on record
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just for political reasons but he didn't expect it to pass because he knew it wouldn't and sure enough
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it didn't so it made it through the house because there's a democrat majority and then it hit the
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senate and you know there were enough dissenters like joe manchin that it failed but the point was not to get
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it passed the point was not to get it passed uh somebody's saying i should interview dinesh
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um uh let me get back to that um and ian bremer asked this question on twitter he says why did
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senate democrats demand to vote on an expensive abortion rights bill that was guaranteed to fail
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when mansion and several republicans were prepared to support a bill to endorse roe versus wave so in
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other words they had a path and they had a path where they could have gotten more of what they wanted
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so instead they took a path where they would get less of what they wanted less of what they wanted
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now i feel as if the politicians have just stopped pretending
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that they're on our side this is not even pretending they're on our side is it it feels like
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they they write in your face and said you know we're just going to do something that has no value
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whatsoever except to our own elections and we're going to put it right in your fucking face we're
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not even going to pretend we're helping you this time this was just for us so screw you now this won't
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be the only time that you hear this theme today this is the theme of my live stream all right we'll get back
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to that here's something else the ap said by the way it was only recently that i thought the ap was a
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credible organization it doesn't appear to be i don't know i don't know what's behind it but the ap
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appears to be not even on the side of the united states now again i'm not i'm not reading any minds
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that that's not an allegation i'm going to say that it feels like that so based on how the ap has
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acted recently they don't act like they're even on the side of the united states
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um so zeke miller who works for the ap he tweeted this he said senate democrats bill to write roe
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versus wade into law blocked by a gop-led filibuster as supreme court ways abortion case
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all right so that's what he tweeted here's what ted cruz tweeted in response
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you know why do you know why ted cruz says every word of that tweet is false
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because it is every part of it there was there's nothing true about it
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and is the ap even trying here's what ted cruz says does ap even pretend anymore i was thinking
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exactly that i was thinking it doesn't look like they're pretending anymore it looks like they're
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just fucking with us at this point and uh and then ted cruz corrects them he says here's an
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accurate headline bipartisan majority of the senate rejects dem proposal to overturn every single
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restriction on abortion enacted over the last 50 years so basically it was a bill that not even
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democrats would support i mean human humans not politicians you know regular citizens because
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almost everybody supports some kind of a little restriction on abortion right almost everybody
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you know it might be the the last day before you give natural childbirth but that's a restriction
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and apparently that would go away all right i suppose if it's the last day before you're born you're
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just that's not really an abortion you're just born all right um here's something else happening
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uh the ap oh the ap again so the ap uh has this headline on twitter elon musk boasts that he's acquiring
00:27:12.480
twitter to defend freedom of speech but he has long used the platform to attack those who disagree with
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him wait what did you just say what does that even make sense elon musk likes free speech but and i
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guess the but is telling us that this is going to be something that's opposite of free speech
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he uses his free speech wait okay all right the ap is saying that elon musk is pretending to
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like free speech and that's why he's buying twitter but but and here's the contradiction
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this is a headline that says elon musk likes free speech and he uses free speech and he like
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you to have free speech and he wants everybody to have free speech that's the headline and somehow
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they put that button there like like he's anti-free speech and so i ask you is the ap even trying
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because these are all current examples none of this isn't even historical
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somebody says i've changed since elon free twitter i have i have i i am absolutely taking more risks
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now he hasn't bought it yet so it's not a done deal but i'm absolutely taking more risks
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because it's the right time to do it if i get cancelled now it's a much bigger deal
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right if i got cancelled a year ago people would say ah we don't like it but we forgot about it already
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but if it happened today it would fit the headline right now the headline is twitter so if i get kicked
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off of twitter for doing something that's not terrible which is i don't do anything terrible
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um that would be sort of a big story at this point so it's a good time to be uh and by the way i'm
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doing it in the comic strip as well um dilbert became a big deal because i took more chances early in
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my career but then when things are going well you start taking fewer chances it's just natural right
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but i realize it makes it worse i mean it's just it's the provocation that drew people to it in the
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first place so i am making dilbert more provocative it's giving my editor uh quite a bit of heartburn at
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the moment um yeah it's like elon signed my freedom papers you know what it is here's what it is it's not
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just that it's the right timing it's that i think you would have my back that's what it feels like
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i i feel like the internet dads and you know i use that term a lot so don't don't make me
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redefine it i feel like at this point in time the internet dads would not let me get cancelled for
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for a bad reason i mean if i get cancelled because i actually did something cancelable that's that's on
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me but i don't feel like i don't feel like i don't feel like the internet dads would let it happen
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i feel like they've got my back as i would have theirs it works both ways
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um all right i mean let me give you another example so this is not directly comparable to me
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but i'll just pick a person could you imagine if uh mike cernovich got kicked off of twitter
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there would be a really big response to that wouldn't there because that would hit you
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like he has enough people who care about his you know his voice a lot that that would be
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that would be a big big fight like that would be a fight that that would be a fight to the end
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right that that's a that's a don't give up fight that that's a that's you have to you have to finish
00:31:13.200
off the other team if they go that far kind of fight that's less nuclear right now just using him
00:31:18.880
as an example yeah you could add you could add 15 people to that list would be same way imagine yeah
00:31:25.760
imagine ben shapiro being kicked off of twitter right like would you let that sit no no you would not
00:31:34.480
now if you know milo yiannopoulos gets kicked off of twitter because he said some sketchy stuff
00:31:41.520
i don't know if i'm gonna i'm not gonna go to war for that that feels like a little bit more on him
00:31:47.600
you know what i mean but these other voices that are you know really standard foundational voices for a
00:31:54.800
lot of people if one of them gets knocked off that's a whole different deal i think all right um
00:32:03.440
um so apparently there's news from some whistleblowers who are never credible but the
00:32:09.840
whistleblowers at the fbi what could be less credible than an fbi whistleblower the the one
00:32:17.680
of the least credible entities in the united states is the fbi now unfortunately it wasn't it wasn't always
00:32:24.240
that way but at the moment i think the entire country would agree by majority that the fbi is no longer
00:32:31.200
a credible organization in other words they they lie to you intentionally for whatever
00:32:36.000
reasons political or otherwise but you wouldn't trust anything they said at this point if you're
00:32:40.560
paying attention um so a whistleblower at the fbi is even less dependable doesn't mean it's wrong
00:32:51.440
doesn't mean the whistleblower doesn't exist but if you automatically believe the um the secret
00:32:58.160
source you know the secret source because it because they were called a whistleblower you know
00:33:05.120
if somebody says i have an anonymous source what's your first thought that's not true but if somebody
00:33:10.080
says i have a whistleblower what's your first thought probably true right and what's the difference
00:33:16.640
between an anonymous source and a whistleblower not that much right but if you use the word anonymous
00:33:24.400
source you automatically say i don't believe it as soon as you say whistleblower you're you're biased
00:33:31.040
to believe it aren't you don't i wouldn't believe an fbi whistleblower or somebody who reported one
00:33:38.080
existed you know we haven't we haven't seen the whistleblower if the if the whistleblower comes forward
00:33:44.160
i would revise it but a secret whistleblower is just an anonymous source right that's just an anonymous
00:33:52.800
source so when the congress whoever wrote up some some statement here called it a whistleblower that's
00:34:00.240
just propaganda might be true someday but at the moment it's propaganda all right so but the story is
00:34:08.560
that there are several efforts within the fbi counterterrorism group to go after parents who attended
00:34:16.080
school board meetings and exercise their freedom of speech
00:34:19.040
speech now if the government is going after let's just say it conservatives and republicans
00:34:26.720
all right because that's that's who we're talking about those were the parents complaining in this
00:34:30.320
context it wasn't the democrats it was republicans and the government has decided to target republicans
00:34:39.360
for fbi counterterrorism investigations for exercising free speech on an important topic about their own
00:34:50.880
children in a public setting which invited free speech now thank you there's there's a comment on
00:35:01.120
locals that i think sums it up perfectly fucking terrifying right there's nothing else you can say about that
00:35:09.600
it's just fucking terrifying now wasn't it obama used the irs to target republicans the tea party
00:35:16.960
people was that true or is that just a rumor that's true right now what if this is true and again it's
00:35:25.280
a whistleblower from the fbi so that's pretty that's a very low standard for truth but if it's true
00:35:30.880
would this be an example of my prediction before the election uh that got biden into office that if
00:35:46.000
is this not hunting republicans now when i said they would be hunted that didn't mean you know with
00:35:52.640
hunting tags and rifles necessarily necessarily it meant you know figuratively hunted they would be
00:36:01.120
looked for identified and punished hunted so can we all agree that that was one of my best predictions
00:36:10.240
as horrible as it is yes yes i believe that was one of my best predictions would it surprise you to
00:36:16.160
know that when people mock me they use that example as my worst prediction it's because their news doesn't
00:36:23.440
show any of this stuff so their news doesn't show any of it
00:36:26.800
are you in obama's martha's vineyard guest cabin no i'm not
00:36:42.720
so here's more on the theme of is the government even trying to help the citizens anymore apparently
00:36:48.080
the biden administration canceled oil and gas lease sales in alaska and the gulf of mexico
00:36:53.680
wait what uh what's the price of gas and what's inflation doing and here's an obvious way to deal
00:37:02.560
with it an obvious way straightforward obvious solution and he canceled it now i get it climate
00:37:10.800
change blah blah blah but at this point is there anybody smart who thinks this is a good idea
00:37:17.280
in other words is there anybody who's not you know directly in the political world who thinks this is
00:37:24.000
a good idea right now now even if you think uh yeah even if you think that climate change is you know
00:37:34.960
a huge problem and we need to do everything we can this isn't really the time to be fussing with that
00:37:39.920
is it this is sort of the time to save our lives and then work on whatever else we think is important
00:37:47.120
so i think i'd be more worried about saving us economically
00:37:51.360
over the next five years and a little little less about climate change that hasn't really
00:37:57.360
been a problem yet and i think we'll actually mitigate the the outcomes
00:38:02.160
um north korea has ordered a nationwide lockdown after reporting his first covet case uh first one
00:38:11.600
how about that so i guess uh north korea actually uh did better than china first one
00:38:20.640
i don't even know what's behind that like why would they even bother telling us that there's one
00:38:24.560
it doesn't make any sense oh william you're so smart all right um
00:38:35.680
here's some other stuff going on how many of you thought i was crazy when i said is it my imagination
00:38:44.400
or as the administration stopped trying to help ukraine simply defend itself
00:38:50.240
and started thinking that ukraine would just win the war outright how many thought that's oh that's
00:38:58.480
crazy and so here's an article in the federalist by john daniel davidson and he talks about uh
00:39:07.840
i'll just read this piece that's relevant he says uh now instead of simply helping ukraine stave off
00:39:13.680
invasion and conquest u.s policy seems to have shifted into something entirely uh something else
00:39:20.720
entirely the permanent weakening of russia at any cost defense secretary lloyd austin said so explicitly
00:39:28.640
after a clandestine visit to ukraine with secretary of state anthony blinken last month after her own
00:39:35.520
recent trip to kiev democratic house speaker nancy pelosi characterized the war as
00:39:42.800
quote a global struggle for democracy uh okay now may i have my due yeah i'm seeing what he's saying
00:39:57.360
you thought it sounded crazy and now it's it's the news it's literally happened so
00:40:04.880
pretty good wouldn't you say pretty good prediction i think um so here's what's weird i think we're
00:40:18.080
going to come up come to a situation that however this goes putin is going to claim victory because
00:40:24.080
he got some extra control or whatever of ukraine uh or maybe he denazified it he's going to say so
00:40:30.640
putin is going to claim victory nato will probably claim victory because they created more nato nations
00:40:36.560
they defended ukraine maybe and um and they'll just say that they beat russia back right and then ukraine
00:40:46.240
is going to claim victory assuming that they remain a country however big they are when they're done
00:40:52.000
so is this the only war where everybody's going to win
00:40:58.400
shelly shelly shelly shelly shelly i don't know if you're the real shelly but we're going to hide
00:41:05.760
you on this channel shelly because i know everybody wanted to go off on you but since i'm not sure you're
00:41:11.520
the real shelly you might be just trying to you might be trying to prompt me to go off on you
00:41:16.000
so so i'm not going to fall for it this time all right um
00:41:26.800
all right here's an important uh comment i'd like to read this to the rest of you
00:41:30.320
this is from hobster it says scott i had something i wanted to tell you but now i've forgotten what it
00:41:34.880
was okay thank you um i appreciate that so that's uh that's what's happening now do you think we're
00:41:44.240
heading into world war three there is a weird way in which we fight russia so for decades we've been
00:41:51.600
fighting russia while saying we're not fighting russia and russia has been fighting us while saying
00:41:56.800
they're not fighting us and you wonder how far we can take it yeah obviously we took it to the point
00:42:03.040
where we're secretly helping uh ukraine but everybody knew we took it to the point where we were then
00:42:09.360
directly giving them money and everybody knew now it seems there's almost no doubt that we're helping
00:42:15.120
them with targeting and you know locating targets don't you believe i mean do you really think that
00:42:21.600
we have that information and we're not telling ukraine really because we have the information right
00:42:28.080
because we have the satellites we have the assets and you think we're not going to tell them where stuff
00:42:32.240
is they are our ally do you think allies don't share information that's critical to the survival
00:42:39.520
of another ally of course they do of course they do do you think russia is aware that the united states
00:42:45.600
is sharing critical military data with ukraine of course they are of course everybody is there's nobody
00:42:52.480
who doesn't know it so explain to me why this isn't world war three
00:42:56.240
the entire war is effect the entire world is affected at least in terms of you know resources
00:43:04.080
and economics the whole world is affected and it is the united states in a military war
00:43:12.720
with russia does it really matter that no american soldiers getting shot
00:43:18.160
i mean it matters to military soldiers but it doesn't matter to whether it's a world war or not it
00:43:22.560
doesn't matter to whether we're involved or not so i really i'm just sort of amazed
00:43:29.280
i know that the reason we can get away with it is the following see if see if this tracks with what
00:43:35.600
you're thinking i think we can get away with it now it's risky business no doubt about it could could
00:43:42.720
spark a nuclear confrontation that's that's a big risk but i do think we're going to get away with it
00:43:47.840
here's why because for decades the united states and russia has pretended that being at war with each
00:43:56.160
other is not really a war and i don't know if we can get out of the habit and so i think we can just
00:44:02.080
take advantage of the fact that this habit is so well established that the united states can attack our
00:44:07.760
elections and just say nope no we didn't really you know that attacking of your your elections
00:44:14.320
not really not really do you think that russia has done anything to help any enemies of the united
00:44:22.240
states well if you asked them they'd say no not really nope nothing like that happened so as long
00:44:28.720
as we live in a world in which putin can say anything that's true is false and just say it in public no
00:44:34.160
that's not happening no nothing why don't we just do the same thing and apparently that's what the
00:44:41.840
government that's what biden administration has decided to do they've decided just to act the same
00:44:46.640
way oh no it's not a war no no war i don't even know what you're talking about really i'm confused
00:44:53.360
by the question war what war and as weird as this is i think it's going to work so if you think the
00:45:03.600
united states is acting crazy because it's doing an actual war i mean without our own soldiers but we're
00:45:10.480
clearly deeply involved if if you think that it's crazy to run a war and then say you're not running
00:45:16.880
a war this is the only time that might work because russia has so deeply ingrained the whole
00:45:23.840
we're not doing this oh no we're not going to attack ukraine no no attack ukraine i don't know what
00:45:29.200
you're talking about and then they attack ukraine apparently we could just say anything now because
00:45:33.520
once russia has been outed itself as completely dishonest all the time it doesn't matter what you tell
00:45:40.640
it really doesn't it doesn't matter what's true doesn't get away with permanently weakening russia
00:45:50.800
do you think you we don't know if it'll work but do you think it would be a good idea to permanently
00:46:00.000
i don't know because the world is a very unpredictable place and one of the weird outcomes that could come
00:46:07.360
from permanently weakening russia is what would be the weirdest outcome from permanently weakening russia
00:46:20.320
not really i don't think it makes a difference to china one way or the other the weirdest outcome
00:46:29.920
was that russia and the united states would finally become allies because they always should have been
00:46:36.400
we just we're just not natural enemies we're we're psychological enemies we're not natural enemies
00:46:42.320
a natural enemy is somebody who's you know there's a real door border dispute or um there's a real risk
00:46:50.240
there's a real something but this is entirely psychological we've just decided we act like it
00:46:57.920
so this is not like any other situation yeah we we are fated to become allies this might be
00:47:07.440
an accelerator you know we are fated to become allies that's just going to happen all right um
00:47:17.840
let's see what else is happening i'm just going to quickly review things i've tweeted lately
00:47:23.600
um is it is it true that russia has basically given up on all of ukraine except
00:47:31.120
the eastern part that they're trying to consolidate their little land bridge is that because the news and
00:47:36.880
of anti-ukraine is so so bad and so undependable but is that the current situation that russia is not
00:47:47.280
doing much in most of ukraine they've given up in kiev
00:47:52.320
right and is it also i also saw a report that i don't believe i don't believe that ukraine is pushing
00:48:01.600
russia back militarily just one-on-one they're just literally just defeating them on the
00:48:06.640
battlefield do you think that's true because it could be because apparently the ukrainians are
00:48:12.080
better trained and have better equipment and and they're you know they're fighting for their own
00:48:17.600
territory yeah i'm not sure it's true but it could be you know maybe in at least one case maybe two
00:48:25.520
right yeah i think i think a a skeptical consumer can say maybe not maybe not right
00:48:34.240
right that's the narrative but not really true yeah they're getting lots of help correct
00:48:44.560
but it does seem that russia is not making gains would that be true would you agree that the news is
00:48:54.320
unified from all sources that russia is not making gains no people are disagreeing with that
00:49:00.960
or are you agreeing you're saying no does that agree or disagree i'm not sure
00:49:06.080
so some are saying that they are still making gains
00:49:09.840
maria pole i mean maria pole is basically a dead city so whoever whoever owns that you know good luck
00:49:17.760
i mean that unfortunately is already dead they are taking villages somebody says i don't know so maybe
00:49:24.160
um i i talked we talked about dinesh and the one person going to two ballot boxes so you missed the
00:49:35.280
first part if you want to replay that there's a detailed discussion of that in the beginning of this
00:49:39.280
live stream all right that's all i got for you oh i'm writing a book on reframing um you're gonna love it
00:49:45.760
you need to follow a few pro-russian telegram accounts to see the whole picture that's not
00:49:55.360
going to help me how many liars do i need to look at to get the truth if i look at russia you know russia
00:50:04.480
media is any of it true is any of the ukrainian stuff true i don't think any of it's true so
00:50:14.240
russia is losing troops and equipment at an unsustainable rate you know i think part of the
00:50:19.200
40 billion dollar package for ukraine and you see a lot of people complaining rightfully complaining that
00:50:25.920
we should be spending the money here and not defending the country on the other side of the world
00:50:29.760
but here's the here's i guess my take on it to me there's no difference between our military strategy
00:50:40.400
and our economic strategy so those are those are tied so when we approve 40 billion dollars what's
00:50:47.840
your first thought about that amount is it something like three times as much as we've given all together
00:50:53.200
so far or something like it's a it's a big number compared to what we've done so far
00:50:57.680
so what was your brain what does it do to your brain when you hear that number let's say you're
00:51:04.080
russia what does it do to putin when you hear that number 40 billion dollars that's the number that tells
00:51:10.480
you they're playing to win right they're not playing to negotiate in fact we're not negotiating at all
00:51:17.280
ukraine isn't even negotiating i don't think uh the 40 billion is so big that it sends it sends a signal
00:51:24.000
to putin that we're going to win at all costs because 40 billion is pretty close to all costs
00:51:31.600
and it's just such a big number now suppose we had done the opposite suppose we'd say you know
00:51:37.920
we'll allocate 40 billion but we're going to give you five billion at a time you know and and if you
00:51:44.960
and if things go wrong we'll we'll stop giving you money what if we'd said that because that's a
00:51:50.400
reasonable way to fund anything right you say well it could be this big but we're not going to give
00:51:55.680
that all to you we're going to start with a little bit see how that works out and you know maybe we'll
00:52:00.320
get to the end maybe we don't that would make sense but when you say we're going to give you we're going
00:52:05.120
to give one side 40 billion dollars that is a signal to russia a military signal it's a military signal
00:52:13.280
to russia that they're going to lose because if we said we're going to give them five billion
00:52:19.760
putin would say huh that doesn't sound like enough i'd better double down because i could
00:52:24.880
win this thing but when when biden said and i think wisely from a military perspective not from an
00:52:30.800
economic perspective so you know obviously that has negative repercussions for americans but from
00:52:37.520
a military perspective the 40 billion is brilliant why not 200 billion because they wouldn't be able
00:52:44.240
to sell it 40 billion should be enough to make everybody in the united states go but 200 billion
00:52:51.760
would just we they just lose us that 200 billion we'd say okay just close down the government we don't
00:52:57.520
need you anymore that's just too much 40 billion is too much but it's exactly the right amount for military
00:53:05.920
purposes it it tells you that we're going to win i've often talked about the difference between
00:53:11.840
wanting something and deciding when people want something they're not necessarily going to work as
00:53:18.080
hard as they could to get it when they decide something they will do whatever it takes so people
00:53:25.440
who have made a decision are dangerous because they're not going to stop right it's only people who want
00:53:32.000
something that can be talked out of it okay well i guess i don't want it that much but once you've
00:53:36.960
decided nothing can talk you out of it and this 40 billion is biden administration telling russia okay we
00:53:45.360
just decided you're losing because you know the united states can decide who wins we can because we have
00:53:53.440
the resources to just make it happen you know it would hurt but we could do it you know we've we've been
00:53:59.520
talked about russia and putin if he wanted to sacrifice enough he could get ukraine you would
00:54:05.200
just have to be willing to do sacrifice enough but it works both ways biden just basically just
00:54:12.640
signaled that he's willing to risk world war three and a nuclear confrontation
00:54:17.760
he's willing to be clearly seen as in war with russia and he's going to put in enough money to win
00:54:23.360
if trump had done this i would have said it was brilliant militarily brilliant because this is the
00:54:33.680
kill shot this is a psychological kill shot to the russian army right if you were the russian army and
00:54:42.640
you got wind that the united states just fully funded it fully funded it they're not just throwing some
00:54:49.360
dimes at it to you know act like we're sort of helping a friend you know just so we can say we
00:54:54.640
helped well we helped no the united states just decided to win the war that's what happened or at
00:55:01.360
least that's what we're signaling it's entirely possible that we're saying we're going to give
00:55:07.200
them 40 billion and we have no intention of doing that right that's very possible it's entirely possible
00:55:15.200
that we've never planned to give them 40 billion dollars and maybe even they know that we may
00:55:19.920
have said to them you know you need 10 10 is what we'll give you but you know don't panic when we say
00:55:26.320
it's 40 because that's for putin win the dissolution of america yeah i mean it's risky i'm not saying it's
00:55:35.440
not risky everything's risky the real reason is to distract from biden's many failures well you know
00:55:42.720
that's that's true of everything that he does right everything biden does at this point is also a
00:55:48.800
distraction so here we have our government doing uh all the wrong things except i'm gonna have to
00:55:55.040
say that 40 billion thing is a good military psychological kill shot for the russian army
00:56:02.000
don't know if it will kill them don't know if it'll make a difference but it's a strong strong play
00:56:07.280
uh for you and your arms buddies do i have arms buddies
00:56:19.600
somebody's saying scott will be predicting ukraine's victory when putin is accepting their
00:56:24.480
well help help a dork let me say your comment you're obviously an idiot or a keith because you
00:56:34.400
literally just saw a live stream in which i admitted with no qualifications a prediction i got wrong
00:56:40.560
which was the supreme court document being a hoax now having just seen me full-throatedly and with no
00:56:47.840
ambiguity admitting a prediction was wrong why would you think i would do it on this case well what would
00:56:53.280
make me act differently in this case because yeah you have to you have to understand that my credibility
00:57:01.200
which is what i care about for these purposes is only supported by me telling you what is obviously
00:57:07.840
true if i get one wrong and i tell you that i didn't oh then my whole my whole business model falls
00:57:15.840
apart so i i'm required to tell you when i'm wrong if it's obvious i'm wrong like right and if there's
00:57:22.640
some ambiguity or an argument i'm going to make the argument but if i'm just wrong wrong i'm going to
00:57:28.640
tell you because i want you to believe i'll tell you when i'm wrong that's my benefit because if
00:57:34.240
you're thinking in a limited low awareness way a low awareness person will lie to make themselves look
00:57:42.240
good has that ever worked in the short runs maybe but it's a terrible long run strategy you know lying
00:57:50.160
to look good terrible long run strategy so i would rather look bad in the short run so that in the long
00:57:56.640
run people could say oh yeah he did change his mind on that thing you know he did take he saw both
00:58:01.200
sides he he admitted when he's wrong that's pretty important and by the way i would like to model that
00:58:09.200
for you in case anybody wants to admit they're wrong sometimes right yeah you need to get over the
00:58:14.720
embarrassment of it i've told you before that being immune to embarrassment is like a superpower yeah i swear
00:58:21.600
you can you can you can walk the earth like a god if you're not embarrassed about anything so being
00:58:28.080
wrong should not embarrass you you should be proud that you're a person who is flexible enough to say
00:58:36.640
when you're wrong that's what you should find pride in if if if you're stuck with uh people who like
00:58:43.440
if i got i got wrong that's just a bad place to be don't be there you know be wrong with gusto you
00:58:53.280
you you should be you should be just as enthusiastic about when you're wrong as when you're right
00:58:58.480
and i think i was when when i told you i was wrong about the supreme court document being a hoax
00:59:04.240
i'm enthusiastically telling you that totally wrong super wrong way wrong right i'm not going to fudge it
00:59:11.280
the birds are quiet i guess it's just a daytime thing so so it looks like it looks like it's just a
00:59:18.880
darkness problem all right that did i just see my sister go by there on the comments um the beards the
00:59:41.360
don't remember i predicted that the leak was a hoax i predicted it um i did predict that
00:59:51.360
huh oh you're a different a different uh person with that name okay all right that's all for now
00:59:56.720
um was this the best live stream you've ever seen i think so yeah i think so probably and we'll try to
01:00:05.920
do it tomorrow i don't know if i can do this at the right time zone tomorrow because that's a that's
01:00:11.280
a pretty early wake up call uh ash that's a good question i think it had to do something to do with
01:00:20.320
mushrooms all right that's all for now um well i'm being asked for an update on boo the cat boo the cat
01:00:27.680
unfortunately has passed to the other side um earlier earlier last week uh so with respect and love i
01:00:39.440
held her a little uh head and sent her to the next world
01:00:43.760
um you were tweeting yeah i was awake but i wasn't functioning too well at 3 a.m all right that's
01:00:55.840
all for now and i will talk to you tomorrow youtubers