Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1772 Scott Adams： How Can You Tell If An Election Is Rigged？

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of civilization.

00:00:08.760 The thing that feels so good, it makes you throb on the inside.

00:00:13.040 And if you want to take it to a new level, and trust me, today will be a new level.

00:00:19.700 I'm going to take it right to the Icarus level, if you know what I mean.

00:00:26.300 Everybody get that reference?

00:00:28.180 Because you're so smart, you probably did.

00:00:30.720 And now, if you'd like to Icarus with me, all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass,

00:00:35.160 a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind, that is correct,

00:00:42.040 filling with your favorite beverage.

00:00:45.300 I like coffee.

00:00:47.060 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:54.140 It's the thing that'll snap you into a good mood, no matter where you start it.

00:00:59.820 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and it joins you with people around the world.

00:01:04.480 Whether it's synchronously or asynchronously, magically, it works just as well.

00:01:10.160 Go.

00:01:10.440 Well, all you sipsters, are you ready to make some trouble?

00:01:24.360 Well, who wants to make trouble?

00:01:28.720 Well, let me tell you.

00:01:29.900 If there's one thing that a January 6 hearing makes me want to do, is talk about the stuff

00:01:38.080 that the January 6 hearing doesn't want me to talk about.

00:01:41.720 So we'll be doing a lot of that.

00:01:44.440 But first, while people stream in here for the greatest thing that's ever happened, some good news.

00:01:52.700 There's a UK team.

00:01:54.600 Got this from a Jeff Pilkington tweet.

00:01:57.680 A UK team that just makes some kind of gel that repairs heart attack damage.

00:02:03.840 So they can inject some goop into your heart, and it forms some kind of a structure or lattice

00:02:10.080 and repairs the physical damage.

00:02:14.060 And I'm thinking to myself, really?

00:02:18.400 What?

00:02:18.960 What if it works?

00:02:22.320 What if they can just inject something into your heart and make it healthy again?

00:02:27.120 Now, it does seem like a stretch.

00:02:30.000 But today we're just thinking optimistic things.

00:02:34.540 So, until it's proven that it doesn't work, how about we think that it might?

00:02:41.480 It'll give you a little burst of optimism.

00:02:43.400 It feels good.

00:02:44.580 Just go with it.

00:02:47.280 All right.

00:02:48.960 And I'm thinking, where else could you use that stuff?

00:02:53.240 Is there other stuff that it would repair?

00:02:55.440 How about if you had a hernia?

00:02:57.180 Just to pick a random example.

00:02:59.820 Suppose you had a hernia, which is where the muscle structure weakens.

00:03:04.840 But at the moment, they have to do a surgery and put this artificial mesh thing in there to reinforce it.

00:03:11.800 What if you could just shoot some goop in there and your original muscles just grow back or whatever?

00:03:17.060 I don't know.

00:03:18.680 I feel like we're on the verge of fixing hearts, curing a whole bunch of different cancer types.

00:03:28.860 A lot of good stuff happens.

00:03:31.920 A lot of good stuff happens.

00:03:31.980 Here's a fascinating thing in the Axios news, what would you call them?

00:03:42.560 News organization, Axios.

00:03:44.140 And I would recommend putting Axios on your daily rotation, because they do have some stuff that is just good news that you'd be interested to know about, and a little less political ridiculousness.

00:04:01.140 So, this is really interesting.

00:04:05.520 There's a survey of how people think the country is doing, America, versus how they think they're doing personally, financially.

00:04:14.040 Do you think they would be the same, right?

00:04:16.680 Do you think that, in general, if you ask people, how are you doing with your personal finances, whatever that trend line looked like, it would probably be similar on average.

00:04:25.860 You know, people would be all over the place, but on average, be kind of a similar slope to what they thought the country in general was doing, because they would represent the country in general.

00:04:36.900 Turns out, nothing like that's happening.

00:04:40.520 It turns out that people actually think their personal finances are better than ever.

00:04:45.740 Would you have guessed?

00:04:50.320 People believe their personal finances are better than ever, right now.

00:04:56.560 When I say ever, I mean for a long time.

00:04:59.780 At the same time, they think the country is going into a nosedive, financially.

00:05:06.680 How do you explain that?

00:05:09.780 How do you explain that people think that, personally, they're doing better?

00:05:12.860 Maybe better than in a long, long time.

00:05:18.380 There's an obvious reason, because people don't understand debt and inflation.

00:05:24.880 And there's a time lag.

00:05:27.400 People at the moment are well-employed, 3.6%, and they might even have gotten a raise recently because of inflation.

00:05:36.460 And maybe they say, well, I don't have to drive as much, so I can at least pull back on some of that stuff.

00:05:45.940 A lot of people can't.

00:05:48.520 And so it makes sense to me that the things that you understand have a higher priority in your mind.

00:05:56.180 If you simply see something and look at it and touch it and understand it, it'll seem like that's the important variable, even if it isn't.

00:06:07.280 So people do touch their own life, by definition, all day long.

00:06:13.440 So you're always touching your personal finances.

00:06:16.220 So if those seem pretty good, that variable is going to look pretty important.

00:06:20.540 Here's what you don't see and touch or even understand.

00:06:25.960 National debt and how that printing money fits with inflation and all that.

00:06:34.020 Because if you did, you'd be in a full panic.

00:06:37.280 Now, this will be, and I've been challenged on this, you've heard me talk about the Adam's Law of slow-moving disasters,

00:06:50.080 which means that if we can see a problem coming with enough time to adjust, we always do.

00:06:57.000 You know, the world hasn't run out of food.

00:07:00.760 You know, there are all kinds of things that we thought we were going to run out of,

00:07:03.840 and then we just figured out how to make it work.

00:07:07.920 You know, the year 2000 bug, we had enough time.

00:07:11.260 We just fixed it, fixed the bug.

00:07:13.440 You know, hole in the ozone, I guess we had enough time.

00:07:18.140 We, you know, banned certain things and the hole is closing.

00:07:21.980 So lots of things that we could fix, all kinds of things that you wouldn't imagine would be fixable.

00:07:27.320 And I think climate change will be one of those.

00:07:29.700 One of those things that you couldn't imagine it's even possible until somebody figures out how to do it.

00:07:35.480 So the thing that you can't foresee, and this will blow you away, but the thing you can never foresee are the things you can't foresee.

00:07:46.280 In other words, you can't really predict the future.

00:07:50.780 Nobody can, because you have all these surprises.

00:07:53.180 So, is it possible that this thing that looks impossible to solve, which is our continuous printing of money,

00:08:04.320 which will, you know, if you just straight lined it forward,

00:08:07.780 the dollar becomes less of a reserve currency, and inflation eats us all to death, and everything goes to hell.

00:08:18.520 Because all of our money becomes worthless.

00:08:21.520 Now, that's where the straight line is heading.

00:08:23.880 But that's also where the population explosion was heading,

00:08:29.060 until we've learned that rich countries don't like having lots of babies. 0.99

00:08:34.140 And it kind of solved itself.

00:08:36.000 So, if you straight line any problem, it's unsolvable.

00:08:41.700 Because you can't foresee the unforeseeable,

00:08:43.900 which is people figure out how to solve things that you couldn't figure out.

00:08:49.320 Can you figure out how to repair a damaged heart?

00:08:52.700 I can't.

00:08:53.600 But, possibly, a UK team invented a gel that might do just that.

00:09:00.080 Maybe.

00:09:01.520 But you and I couldn't figure it out.

00:09:03.180 So, just the fact that you and I didn't know how to repair a damaged heart

00:09:06.500 didn't mean that there wasn't anybody in the 7 billion of us or whatever

00:09:11.100 who couldn't figure it out.

00:09:13.140 Maybe somebody did.

00:09:15.240 So, here's the test, the ultimate test of the Adams Law of Slow-Moving Disasters.

00:09:22.340 And the idea that we can always figure our way out.

00:09:26.400 I have no idea how we get out of this printing money debt thing.

00:09:33.000 But, I also don't think it's impossible.

00:09:37.680 Because, like all of the other problems, if you straight line them,

00:09:41.260 there just wasn't any solution.

00:09:44.820 Except that there was.

00:09:46.360 We figured it out.

00:09:48.840 So, I think we'll be fine.

00:09:51.060 But, there is one good thing about the crypto meltdown.

00:09:57.340 I know.

00:09:58.080 It hurt a lot of you.

00:09:58.960 A lot of you own some crypto.

00:10:00.760 So, did I.

00:10:02.080 I own a lot less of it now.

00:10:04.360 Not by choice.

00:10:06.460 But, I only accidentally owned some that went up in value when I wasn't looking.

00:10:12.460 And, I think now it's gone down, you know, 80% or whatever.

00:10:15.980 And, the only good thing about this is that the people who thought they were geniuses,

00:10:24.040 because they bought into crypto when everything was going up,

00:10:26.980 or at least the big ones were going up,

00:10:29.540 they just learned that they can't predict the future.

00:10:34.020 I know.

00:10:35.640 I know.

00:10:36.280 Well, we keep getting surprised.

00:10:38.160 We can't predict the future.

00:10:40.380 And, anybody who bought crypto believed they could.

00:10:44.820 That's why you would do it.

00:10:46.800 You wouldn't buy it unless you could predict the future.

00:10:49.180 Now, if you were buying it as, you know, a small part of a larger portfolio,

00:10:54.920 then that's completely rational.

00:10:56.860 In fact, I recommend it.

00:10:58.440 If you have a big enough portfolio, some small part,

00:11:02.520 probably needs to be Bitcoin or maybe a few of the other big cryptos,

00:11:07.160 just in case someday it's the only money left.

00:11:11.880 Just in case.

00:11:12.860 So, somebody says 1% max?

00:11:16.700 Well, maybe, because your 1% would suddenly, you know,

00:11:22.200 balloon in value if it were the only money.

00:11:26.800 All right.

00:11:28.600 So, did you see the video of the so-called Patriot Front,

00:11:34.460 who was arrested in Idaho,

00:11:37.140 being, quote, near a gay pride event?

00:11:39.540 Now, the news is suggesting that they were going to be protesting a gay pride event.

00:11:46.280 It's some kind of alleged white supremacist, you know, far-right organization

00:11:50.800 who gets a bunch of adult men of a certain age

00:11:55.760 and they wear khaki pants and matching outfits and masks

00:12:00.380 and they show up with, I guess, shields and some kind of sticks or spears

00:12:08.240 and they march around to put on a show.

00:12:12.600 Now, they're very visual.

00:12:14.600 I guess they always rent a U-Haul truck and, you know, 30 of them or whatever

00:12:19.220 get in the back of the U-Haul truck.

00:12:22.120 And there's this video of the police having arrested them.

00:12:25.060 They say they had an insider tip.

00:12:27.820 And you see all these guys and they're all on their knees,

00:12:31.300 nearly identically dressed,

00:12:33.240 and they've all got their full baklava.

00:12:38.000 Is that what is it?

00:12:38.600 What's the name of it?

00:12:39.380 Not baklava.

00:12:40.960 What's the name of that full face mask thing?

00:12:47.040 Balaklava.

00:12:47.720 Yeah, balaklava.

00:12:49.080 Baklava is a delicious Greek food

00:12:51.440 that you don't want to rub on your face.

00:12:53.500 It would be a waste of it, really.

00:12:54.840 Put it all in your mouth, the baklava.

00:12:57.520 But the balaklava, you could cover your face with that.

00:13:00.180 And as many people noted, including me,

00:13:07.480 how long would you let these people keep their masks on

00:13:11.400 after they were handcuffed and on their knees?

00:13:15.580 Wouldn't that be one of the very first things you would do

00:13:19.660 is take off their masks?

00:13:21.560 Or were they protecting them?

00:13:24.740 Maybe they were protecting their identity.

00:13:27.300 But did the police do that?

00:13:28.360 It was a public place.

00:13:31.880 Somebody said COVID.

00:13:35.660 That's funny.

00:13:37.400 That's funny.

00:13:40.680 Oh, imagine that.

00:13:42.040 Imagine if the police forced them to take their masks off,

00:13:45.400 and then their defense was,

00:13:47.360 we had masks for COVID,

00:13:49.660 and they made us take them off.

00:13:52.540 I wonder.

00:13:53.480 So I don't rule out

00:13:56.180 that there might have been some actual reason

00:13:59.500 why the masks were left on.

00:14:01.640 Just some weird reason that isn't obvious.

00:14:04.180 There might be.

00:14:05.120 It could be that they took them off

00:14:06.640 like immediately after taking the picture.

00:14:10.180 Which actually would make sense.

00:14:12.760 Right?

00:14:12.860 If you knew that people were going to take pictures,

00:14:16.580 you might say,

00:14:17.360 leave the masks on

00:14:18.400 so they can see what we saw.

00:14:20.580 Like keep the evidence intact, basically.

00:14:23.180 Let people take a picture.

00:14:24.820 And then it would keep these guys' identities secret

00:14:27.480 until they had been charged of an actual crime.

00:14:30.920 Because remember,

00:14:32.680 I don't know that they had been

00:14:34.080 individually charged of any crimes, right?

00:14:37.160 So maybe they're not guilty of anything.

00:14:39.700 Except, you know,

00:14:41.600 poor decision-making,

00:14:45.100 depending on your point of view.

00:14:47.780 So, yeah,

00:14:49.800 what is the crime of getting in a U-Haul

00:14:52.980 dressed poorly?

00:14:54.760 Is it a crime to plan to a protest?

00:14:56.980 And here's the other question I ask.

00:15:00.920 And, by the way,

00:15:01.860 all of you are prompting me

00:15:03.060 because you're having the same thoughts.

00:15:04.540 They do look like they're undercover feds.

00:15:07.540 But,

00:15:08.640 let me be the lone voice of semi-reason here.

00:15:13.900 Just because they look exactly like

00:15:16.460 undercover law enforcement,

00:15:19.720 does that necessarily mean that they are?

00:15:24.740 Can you take that next leap?

00:15:27.300 If you're asking me,

00:15:28.560 do they look like it?

00:15:30.100 Yeah.

00:15:30.920 It looks exactly like

00:15:32.740 a bunch of FBI people.

00:15:35.840 And it looks like

00:15:37.140 there are no organic members.

00:15:39.060 It looks like they're all informants.

00:15:41.500 It might be the only organization

00:15:43.140 that accidentally

00:15:44.780 was staffed entirely by informants,

00:15:47.920 and there's nobody,

00:15:48.820 there's no native person

00:15:50.320 actually in the organization anymore.

00:15:53.100 Now,

00:15:54.000 do I think that that's the case?

00:15:55.800 Do I think that's the case?

00:15:56.460 Do I think that's the case?

00:15:57.020 No.

00:15:58.800 But if you ask me if it looks like it,

00:16:01.760 yes.

00:16:03.340 Yes, it looks like it.

00:16:04.900 But be aware that that doesn't mean it is.

00:16:09.160 Now,

00:16:10.880 the notion that they were going to be protesting

00:16:14.720 an LGBTQ event,

00:16:17.900 does that even make sense?

00:16:19.180 Can you connect the dots for me?

00:16:23.740 Why would the Patriot Front

00:16:25.000 even care about an LGBTQ event?

00:16:28.200 When was the last time?

00:16:31.840 I mean, if it's a generic event, right?

00:16:34.680 It's just a generic, you know,

00:16:36.260 pride kind of an event.

00:16:37.440 If it was some kind of a, you know, 0.96

00:16:39.460 drag queen in our school kind of a thing, 1.00

00:16:41.900 then everybody comes out.

00:16:44.580 But if it's just a local pride parade,

00:16:50.480 would the,

00:16:51.900 is there some far-right

00:16:53.160 white supremacist group

00:16:55.000 that cares enough to go protest that?

00:16:57.080 Why would you even bother?

00:16:58.680 What would even be the point?

00:17:02.340 So it doesn't,

00:17:03.260 none of it really makes sense, does it?

00:17:04.880 Everything from the way they do it

00:17:07.520 to the way they look

00:17:08.960 to what is alleged that they were up to,

00:17:12.800 absolutely none of it makes sense.

00:17:15.520 Now, people are saying in the comments

00:17:17.060 that they would be activated

00:17:18.560 by the grooming issue.

00:17:20.580 In other words,

00:17:21.220 that might be an incentive

00:17:22.780 for them to be there.

00:17:24.880 And I'll say,

00:17:26.040 okay,

00:17:27.420 but did they expand their,

00:17:30.000 you know,

00:17:30.200 did the Patriot Front

00:17:32.280 always care about grooming? 0.69

00:17:33.820 I mean,

00:17:35.000 beyond the way that everybody cares?

00:17:38.060 Was that always a,

00:17:40.180 like an activating part

00:17:41.660 of their organization?

00:17:43.400 Because I kind of doubt it.

00:17:46.720 It's a new issue.

00:17:48.520 Interesting.

00:17:51.460 So,

00:17:52.220 let's take a vote on here.

00:17:54.240 Do you think it's a fake,

00:17:56.820 completely staged event?

00:17:58.260 So let's say staged or natural.

00:18:01.220 Now,

00:18:01.720 if it's natural,

00:18:02.720 we have lots of questions.

00:18:05.900 But that doesn't mean

00:18:06.880 there are no answers.

00:18:08.200 So I'm not going to say

00:18:09.220 that it's definitively staged.

00:18:11.820 I'll say it,

00:18:12.740 it is definitively

00:18:14.080 having lots of signals

00:18:15.980 of being staged.

00:18:18.300 Very different

00:18:19.120 from knowing it was staged.

00:18:20.980 Very different.

00:18:21.560 So just be alerted

00:18:23.780 that you could be wrong

00:18:24.640 on this one.

00:18:28.720 Okay,

00:18:29.340 so most of you

00:18:30.420 seem to think

00:18:31.520 it was staged.

00:18:33.080 Well,

00:18:33.540 we do live in a world

00:18:34.620 in which assuming the worst

00:18:36.060 is a pretty good assumption.

00:18:40.060 So there's that.

00:18:43.280 All right.

00:18:43.640 there was a gay pride

00:18:48.260 a gay pride

00:18:50.780 parade

00:18:51.700 that was cancelled

00:18:52.420 because there wasn't

00:18:54.820 enough security.

00:18:56.140 So they couldn't get enough

00:18:57.060 police

00:18:58.820 who wanted to work

00:18:59.840 you know,

00:19:00.240 extra or something.

00:19:01.680 And I don't know,

00:19:02.420 there was some issue

00:19:03.600 about why that is.

00:19:04.920 But that's not the thing

00:19:06.040 that caught my eye.

00:19:08.600 I thought to myself,

00:19:10.060 how much

00:19:11.540 security

00:19:11.640 do you need

00:19:13.180 at a gay pride parade?

00:19:15.860 I mean,

00:19:16.420 I've never attended one

00:19:17.660 just because,

00:19:18.980 you know,

00:19:19.240 I don't like

00:19:19.740 going to parades.

00:19:21.160 If I went to a parade,

00:19:22.660 that would be,

00:19:23.280 seems like,

00:19:23.880 a more interesting

00:19:24.640 one to go to.

00:19:26.040 But I don't go to parades.

00:19:28.660 But

00:19:28.940 is there a lot

00:19:30.920 of possibility

00:19:32.420 for violence

00:19:33.480 at an LGBTQ

00:19:34.480 event?

00:19:37.900 I don't even,

00:19:39.100 I don't even understand.

00:19:43.180 Or is it just,

00:19:44.100 do they just have

00:19:44.720 a rule

00:19:45.460 that says

00:19:45.940 if it's a certain

00:19:46.660 number of

00:19:47.920 parade goers

00:19:49.240 and watchers,

00:19:50.700 they have to have

00:19:51.240 a certain amount

00:19:51.760 of security?

00:19:52.760 Is it nothing

00:19:54.240 except about

00:19:55.160 the number of people?

00:19:57.240 Because couldn't they

00:19:58.000 do a little profiling

00:19:59.340 in this case?

00:20:01.560 This would be

00:20:02.300 one of those cases

00:20:03.020 where they could

00:20:03.520 save a lot of money

00:20:04.380 with some,

00:20:05.660 with some

00:20:07.440 intense

00:20:08.460 bigotry?

00:20:09.420 This is where

00:20:11.640 bigotry can really

00:20:12.500 save you some money.

00:20:14.180 Because I don't know

00:20:14.900 about you,

00:20:15.300 but my bigotry

00:20:16.100 tells me that

00:20:16.820 an LGBTQ event

00:20:18.560 is not going to

00:20:19.860 attract a lot

00:20:20.460 of violence

00:20:21.020 or crime.

00:20:22.760 And that it might

00:20:23.420 be like

00:20:23.800 one of the lowest

00:20:25.600 crime areas

00:20:26.800 in the entire city

00:20:27.980 for the period

00:20:29.880 of the parade,

00:20:30.700 no matter whether

00:20:31.600 you had security

00:20:32.320 there at all.

00:20:33.660 Am I wrong?

00:20:35.920 Is my,

00:20:36.740 is my bigotry

00:20:37.900 incorrect?

00:20:39.940 My bigotry is

00:20:40.780 it would be

00:20:41.140 the safest crowd

00:20:42.140 you could ever

00:20:42.680 organize anywhere.

00:20:45.820 Because they're,

00:20:46.660 they're really

00:20:47.140 not there about

00:20:48.020 some kind of

00:20:50.940 a violent

00:20:51.440 policy or something.

00:20:53.560 They're there

00:20:54.320 to enjoy themselves.

00:20:56.480 And,

00:20:57.120 and they want

00:20:57.700 to be invited back.

00:20:59.380 Like,

00:20:59.640 who wants to be

00:21:00.240 invited back

00:21:01.260 more than

00:21:02.560 a pride parade?

00:21:04.500 Could you imagine

00:21:05.080 being the pride

00:21:05.960 parade organizers?

00:21:06.780 the last thing

00:21:07.580 they want

00:21:08.140 is to not

00:21:09.400 be able

00:21:10.360 to do it

00:21:10.780 next year.

00:21:11.920 Like,

00:21:12.260 that would be

00:21:12.660 highest priority

00:21:13.460 I would think.

00:21:15.960 So,

00:21:16.960 somebody says

00:21:17.620 projection.

00:21:19.420 Yeah.

00:21:20.540 That's a funny

00:21:21.320 comment.

00:21:22.200 All right.

00:21:23.240 The National

00:21:24.100 School Board

00:21:24.780 Association,

00:21:26.600 I guess 25

00:21:27.800 states have now

00:21:28.600 decided to cut

00:21:29.360 ties with them.

00:21:31.200 And after,

00:21:32.020 I guess the,

00:21:33.120 this NSBA,

00:21:34.160 the National

00:21:34.600 School Board

00:21:35.320 Association,

00:21:36.540 you know the

00:21:37.320 story that

00:21:37.760 they'd sent

00:21:38.120 out letters

00:21:38.560 to the Justice

00:21:39.140 Department

00:21:39.680 about investigating

00:21:41.080 parents for

00:21:41.900 domestic terrorism.

00:21:43.500 And I guess

00:21:44.060 people didn't

00:21:44.520 like that.

00:21:45.860 Turns out

00:21:46.560 that if you

00:21:49.060 use your free

00:21:50.360 speech and

00:21:51.640 some organization

00:21:52.540 decides to turn

00:21:53.480 you in as a

00:21:54.240 domestic terrorist

00:21:55.280 for having an

00:21:56.440 opinion,

00:21:57.880 that you might,

00:21:58.780 you might vote

00:21:59.980 to end your

00:22:00.520 association with

00:22:02.160 the group that

00:22:02.840 wanted you to

00:22:03.760 be turned in

00:22:04.400 as a domestic

00:22:05.600 terrorist for

00:22:06.920 having an opinion

00:22:07.580 about how a

00:22:08.280 school should be

00:22:08.780 run.

00:22:11.900 I think the

00:22:12.720 amazing part of

00:22:13.360 the story is

00:22:13.820 that there's

00:22:14.120 anyone left in

00:22:15.640 the National

00:22:16.080 School Board

00:22:16.740 Association.

00:22:18.840 All right.

00:22:22.100 So,

00:22:22.800 I guess

00:22:23.320 probably the

00:22:24.940 single most

00:22:25.780 dangerous thing

00:22:26.600 you could do

00:22:27.040 at the moment

00:22:27.660 to get kicked

00:22:29.100 off of social

00:22:29.660 media would be

00:22:30.320 to say that

00:22:31.080 the 2020

00:22:31.720 election was

00:22:33.900 rigged.

00:22:35.340 Am I right?

00:22:36.720 If a person

00:22:37.800 were to say

00:22:38.300 that, that

00:22:39.700 would be too

00:22:40.400 far and social

00:22:41.340 media would

00:22:41.960 probably treat

00:22:43.180 you harshly.

00:22:44.080 So, I'm not

00:22:44.620 going to do

00:22:44.940 that.

00:22:46.820 I'm not going

00:22:47.360 to do that.

00:22:48.120 I'm going to

00:22:48.460 talk about how

00:22:49.140 you would know

00:22:49.960 if an election

00:22:52.600 were rigged.

00:22:53.940 How would

00:22:54.380 you know?

00:22:55.820 Now, we

00:22:57.300 don't have an

00:22:58.040 election system

00:22:58.960 that is

00:22:59.980 designed.

00:23:01.120 By the way,

00:23:01.620 here's an

00:23:02.420 interesting

00:23:02.760 category.

00:23:03.480 Think about

00:23:03.820 this.

00:23:05.700 Think about

00:23:06.380 things that

00:23:07.160 Democrats

00:23:07.720 believe that

00:23:09.780 would not

00:23:10.260 survive first

00:23:11.520 contact with

00:23:13.300 a well-informed

00:23:14.260 Republican.

00:23:16.980 All right.

00:23:17.800 That's sort of

00:23:18.280 complex.

00:23:18.920 Let me say it

00:23:19.400 again.

00:23:20.840 Think of

00:23:21.460 things that

00:23:22.060 Democrats

00:23:22.580 believe that

00:23:24.200 would not

00:23:24.740 survive first

00:23:25.980 contact with

00:23:27.460 a well-informed

00:23:28.200 Republican.

00:23:28.960 In other words,

00:23:29.780 somebody who

00:23:30.240 could just

00:23:30.560 say, well,

00:23:31.960 but did you

00:23:32.460 know the

00:23:32.820 context is

00:23:33.760 X?

00:23:35.720 Now, you're

00:23:37.760 going to say

00:23:37.980 to yourself,

00:23:38.480 oh, what about

00:23:38.940 that fine

00:23:39.560 people hoax?

00:23:40.300 And I say,

00:23:40.800 unfortunately,

00:23:41.820 you can't talk

00:23:42.760 people out of

00:23:43.320 that.

00:23:44.120 You can tell

00:23:44.680 them to look

00:23:45.220 at the video,

00:23:46.500 you can show

00:23:47.100 them the

00:23:47.320 transcript, and

00:23:48.280 amazingly,

00:23:49.740 they're so

00:23:50.880 bought into

00:23:52.020 that that

00:23:52.480 nothing changes

00:23:53.700 their mind.

00:23:55.300 But there

00:23:56.080 are some

00:23:56.680 things which

00:23:57.860 you would just

00:23:58.820 have to hear

00:23:59.540 the counter

00:24:00.120 argument and

00:24:00.940 you'd say,

00:24:02.160 oh, okay,

00:24:03.640 I didn't know

00:24:04.100 that.

00:24:04.960 And you would

00:24:05.680 have just

00:24:05.940 immediately changed

00:24:06.740 your opinion.

00:24:07.700 Here's one.

00:24:08.340 did you

00:24:10.900 know,

00:24:11.940 Democrats,

00:24:13.460 that our

00:24:14.520 elections are

00:24:15.140 not designed

00:24:15.740 to be fully

00:24:16.380 audited?

00:24:17.240 In other

00:24:17.520 words, you

00:24:18.060 couldn't do

00:24:18.480 it if you

00:24:18.800 wanted to,

00:24:19.780 because the

00:24:20.620 digital parts

00:24:21.500 are always

00:24:22.500 proprietary.

00:24:24.420 In other

00:24:24.740 words, the

00:24:25.200 company that

00:24:25.880 provides the

00:24:26.480 software and

00:24:27.020 hardware is

00:24:28.420 going to

00:24:28.800 limit how

00:24:29.340 much you

00:24:29.700 can see

00:24:30.240 because their

00:24:31.800 business model

00:24:33.040 requires that,

00:24:34.360 or at least

00:24:34.800 their contracts

00:24:35.480 do.

00:24:36.980 So if

00:24:37.540 people say,

00:24:38.340 we know the

00:24:39.220 election was

00:24:40.080 correct, how

00:24:43.620 could that

00:24:44.000 survive first

00:24:44.920 contact with a

00:24:45.920 Republican who

00:24:46.640 says, but you

00:24:47.600 do know that

00:24:49.020 the digital

00:24:49.540 part, where

00:24:51.240 a lot of the

00:24:52.060 actual counting

00:24:52.700 happens, you

00:24:53.480 know that that

00:24:54.000 can't be

00:24:54.440 audited, right?

00:24:55.400 So therefore,

00:24:56.600 you profess to

00:24:57.940 know something

00:24:59.200 that couldn't be

00:25:00.020 known by

00:25:00.520 anybody.

00:25:02.540 Now, you

00:25:03.060 could know,

00:25:04.140 this is what

00:25:04.640 you could know,

00:25:05.720 if there were

00:25:06.340 any giant

00:25:06.900 signals of

00:25:07.900 fraud or

00:25:08.500 fraud or

00:25:08.520 not.

00:25:09.820 And I'm

00:25:10.440 going to

00:25:10.620 say that

00:25:12.560 I have not

00:25:13.100 seen any

00:25:13.740 confirmed giant

00:25:15.060 signals of

00:25:15.760 fraud.

00:25:17.180 This is just

00:25:17.620 me personally,

00:25:18.500 right?

00:25:18.780 You all have

00:25:19.320 your own

00:25:19.620 standard of

00:25:20.280 what would

00:25:21.520 be a signal

00:25:22.440 that was

00:25:22.880 enough to

00:25:23.560 raise your

00:25:24.260 antenna.

00:25:25.280 Now, remember,

00:25:25.860 a signal doesn't

00:25:26.560 mean it's

00:25:27.800 true or it's

00:25:28.540 proof or

00:25:29.040 anything like

00:25:29.480 that.

00:25:30.120 A signal is

00:25:30.800 just,

00:25:31.440 what?

00:25:31.680 So, for

00:25:33.280 example, if

00:25:33.840 the vote came

00:25:34.460 out very

00:25:34.860 different than

00:25:35.640 you thought

00:25:36.140 it would,

00:25:37.440 that doesn't

00:25:37.900 mean you're

00:25:38.320 right, but

00:25:39.960 the signal

00:25:40.420 would be

00:25:40.740 there.

00:25:41.020 You'd be

00:25:41.180 like, what?

00:25:42.080 At least

00:25:42.420 ask the

00:25:42.820 question.

00:25:44.340 Or if, let's

00:25:45.660 say, there

00:25:45.940 were areas

00:25:46.480 where the

00:25:46.980 result was

00:25:47.620 very on

00:25:48.180 a whack 0.87

00:25:48.580 with historical

00:25:49.460 precedent.

00:25:50.900 Well, that's

00:25:51.240 not proof of

00:25:51.840 anything, because

00:25:53.320 things change.

00:25:54.920 But it would

00:25:55.580 be a signal.

00:25:56.700 And you'd

00:25:56.920 say, what?

00:25:57.600 What?

00:25:58.000 What's that

00:25:58.320 signal?

00:25:58.860 Let's

00:25:59.040 check that

00:25:59.460 out.

00:26:00.060 And maybe

00:26:00.480 you check

00:26:00.820 it out, and

00:26:01.160 it's fine.

00:26:02.860 So, are

00:26:05.180 there any

00:26:05.580 signals?

00:26:07.580 Yeah, we'll

00:26:08.160 talk about

00:26:08.600 that in a

00:26:09.120 moment.

00:26:10.100 And I'm

00:26:10.620 not talking

00:26:11.040 about the

00:26:11.380 2,000 mules.

00:26:12.980 That's

00:26:13.340 definitely

00:26:13.620 something that's,

00:26:14.800 I'd say, you

00:26:15.700 could treat that

00:26:16.240 as a signal, but

00:26:17.620 definitely not

00:26:18.180 any kind of

00:26:18.740 proof or

00:26:19.200 evidence.

00:26:22.140 Well, so,

00:26:24.660 because the

00:26:26.300 most dangerous

00:26:26.940 thing that I

00:26:27.580 can talk

00:26:27.980 about,

00:26:28.680 is election

00:26:29.540 integrity, now

00:26:30.720 I want to

00:26:31.080 talk about

00:26:31.460 it all the

00:26:31.860 time.

00:26:33.000 Because the

00:26:34.500 fact that, you

00:26:36.180 know, the

00:26:36.520 powers that be

00:26:37.340 are even

00:26:37.800 running this,

00:26:38.460 you know,

00:26:38.740 January 6th

00:26:39.580 thing as a,

00:26:41.060 really it just

00:26:41.680 looks like an

00:26:42.800 intelligence

00:26:45.080 operation to

00:26:46.140 divert us from

00:26:46.880 something.

00:26:49.320 Right?

00:26:50.020 The fact that

00:26:50.860 they're selling

00:26:51.340 the January 6th

00:26:52.320 thing as an

00:26:53.500 insurrection, as

00:26:55.000 opposed to what

00:26:55.700 it was, which

00:26:56.680 is people trying

00:26:57.320 to make sure

00:26:57.920 that an

00:26:58.320 insurrection

00:26:58.740 hadn't

00:26:59.160 happened,

00:27:00.480 they suspected

00:27:01.200 it had, because

00:27:02.120 in their view,

00:27:03.620 they saw the

00:27:04.320 signals.

00:27:05.500 Doesn't mean

00:27:06.140 there was

00:27:06.400 evidence, doesn't

00:27:07.640 mean there was

00:27:08.080 proof, but

00:27:09.580 there were

00:27:09.800 signals.

00:27:11.240 They certainly

00:27:11.720 saw signals, or

00:27:13.440 I imagine they

00:27:14.080 did.

00:27:14.540 That's the

00:27:14.980 subjective part,

00:27:15.780 right?

00:27:17.200 So, the fact

00:27:18.400 that story is

00:27:19.060 sold to the

00:27:19.580 public in a

00:27:20.320 completely

00:27:20.720 fraudulent

00:27:21.360 way makes me

00:27:22.840 just want to

00:27:23.300 talk about it

00:27:23.860 more.

00:27:24.080 And what I

00:27:25.540 want to say

00:27:25.960 specifically is

00:27:27.400 that the

00:27:28.100 Democrats could

00:27:29.100 not survive

00:27:29.980 first contact

00:27:31.100 with a

00:27:31.460 Republican who

00:27:33.040 said, you

00:27:33.660 know, you

00:27:34.760 can't audit

00:27:35.780 the systems

00:27:36.400 because you

00:27:36.960 can't get at

00:27:37.600 major parts of

00:27:39.220 it.

00:27:40.640 Because there's

00:27:41.380 no, I don't

00:27:42.380 think there's any

00:27:42.980 Democrat who

00:27:43.560 would say, oh,

00:27:44.060 yes, you

00:27:44.400 can, you

00:27:45.560 can audit the

00:27:46.260 entire system.

00:27:47.480 I don't think

00:27:48.140 they would say

00:27:48.500 that, would

00:27:48.860 they?

00:27:49.940 Because it'd be

00:27:50.660 so easy to show

00:27:51.480 that that's not

00:27:52.180 the case.

00:27:53.640 I think they'd

00:27:54.500 say, oh, I

00:27:56.780 didn't know

00:27:57.160 that.

00:27:58.900 So, I'll

00:27:59.780 back up from

00:28:00.500 saying that the

00:28:01.400 elections were

00:28:02.080 totally fair,

00:28:03.720 because you're

00:28:04.520 right, it's not

00:28:05.780 audited.

00:28:06.740 I'll back up to

00:28:07.760 there's no

00:28:08.400 evidence or

00:28:10.160 proof that it

00:28:11.660 was anything but

00:28:12.500 fair.

00:28:13.720 And if you

00:28:14.360 could get them

00:28:14.840 to back up to

00:28:15.520 that, I'd say

00:28:18.420 that would be

00:28:19.160 a belief that

00:28:20.960 did not survive

00:28:21.880 first contact

00:28:22.840 with a

00:28:23.220 Republican.

00:28:24.700 Just think

00:28:25.500 about how

00:28:26.340 important it

00:28:26.980 is that

00:28:28.980 Democrats, and

00:28:30.300 probably works

00:28:31.200 both ways, that

00:28:32.560 Republicans and

00:28:33.460 Democrats literally

00:28:34.540 don't talk to

00:28:35.300 each other, not

00:28:36.380 on social media,

00:28:37.760 in many cases,

00:28:39.380 and not in

00:28:40.220 person.

00:28:41.040 They just don't

00:28:41.560 even mix.

00:28:43.360 But there are a

00:28:44.160 whole bunch of

00:28:44.640 views that maybe

00:28:46.120 could never be

00:28:46.820 changed by mingling

00:28:48.180 with each other,

00:28:49.120 most of them

00:28:49.660 probably.

00:28:49.960 But there are

00:28:51.460 all these ones

00:28:52.080 that would

00:28:52.500 actually die

00:28:53.200 on first

00:28:53.680 contact.

00:28:54.880 And the idea

00:28:55.600 that we have

00:28:56.360 systems or

00:28:57.600 election systems

00:28:58.380 that we can

00:28:59.660 know if they

00:29:00.820 were rigged or

00:29:01.420 not, the

00:29:02.900 false belief

00:29:04.560 that that's

00:29:05.000 knowable would

00:29:07.200 die on contact.

00:29:08.380 The first time

00:29:09.020 you heard somebody

00:29:09.500 say, well, you

00:29:11.380 can't know that

00:29:12.100 it was fair.

00:29:13.040 You can only

00:29:13.780 know that nobody

00:29:14.420 proved it wasn't.

00:29:15.240 immediately, as

00:29:17.820 soon as you

00:29:18.220 hear that, you

00:29:18.860 can't really go

00:29:19.500 back to your

00:29:19.920 old opinion.

00:29:20.920 It's kind of

00:29:21.700 hard.

00:29:23.740 Now, is

00:29:24.960 there any good

00:29:25.580 evidence that

00:29:27.320 the elections

00:29:28.200 had any signals

00:29:30.100 of irregularities?

00:29:31.740 Well, here's an

00:29:32.360 interesting update.

00:29:34.400 Rasmussen, of

00:29:35.780 the Rasmussen

00:29:36.480 poll, they

00:29:38.520 were asked by a

00:29:39.840 user on social

00:29:40.500 media, could

00:29:43.080 you do a

00:29:43.480 survey and ask

00:29:44.360 people who they

00:29:45.040 did vote for

00:29:45.860 in the 2020

00:29:46.960 election, Biden

00:29:48.020 or Trump?

00:29:49.520 Because if you

00:29:50.440 did a survey of

00:29:51.380 who people did

00:29:52.220 vote for, you'd

00:29:53.780 expect all things

00:29:55.520 working perfectly,

00:29:57.260 you'd expect that

00:29:58.340 it would match

00:29:58.960 roughly what the

00:30:01.200 election said

00:30:01.820 they voted for.

00:30:03.960 It's kind of

00:30:04.740 obvious after the

00:30:05.580 fact, isn't it?

00:30:07.020 Like, until

00:30:07.660 somebody suggested

00:30:08.560 that, did you

00:30:10.040 think of that?

00:30:11.580 I'm a little bit

00:30:12.540 embarrassed.

00:30:13.020 I'm a little bit

00:30:14.980 embarrassed I

00:30:15.540 hadn't thought of

00:30:16.020 it.

00:30:16.460 I know they do

00:30:17.260 polling immediately

00:30:19.980 after the polls

00:30:20.980 closed, but I

00:30:23.080 don't remember the

00:30:24.440 exit polling

00:30:25.220 being updated.

00:30:28.840 Now, here's the

00:30:29.660 interesting part.

00:30:31.400 When Rasmussen did

00:30:33.080 the same thing for

00:30:34.780 the 2016 election,

00:30:36.540 what do you think

00:30:37.120 happened?

00:30:37.400 do you think the

00:30:39.280 actual election

00:30:40.240 results, and who

00:30:42.180 people said after

00:30:43.060 the fact they

00:30:43.680 voted for, and

00:30:45.000 Rasmussen pulled

00:30:45.860 them, do you think

00:30:46.800 that they were

00:30:47.220 roughly similar?

00:30:49.320 They were.

00:30:50.480 They were.

00:30:51.260 And I think it was

00:30:52.140 within the margin

00:30:52.800 of error, you know,

00:30:54.120 pretty close.

00:30:55.980 So we know in one

00:30:57.660 case, and this

00:30:59.040 doesn't prove it

00:30:59.760 works in any other

00:31:00.600 case, right?

00:31:01.520 Because any year

00:31:02.200 could be different.

00:31:02.780 But in 2016, we

00:31:05.900 have at least one

00:31:06.780 data point that

00:31:07.520 says that the

00:31:08.320 polling matched

00:31:09.300 the actual outcome.

00:31:10.680 Close enough.

00:31:13.460 So they updated

00:31:14.580 it, and they did

00:31:15.220 it for 2020.

00:31:17.560 Now, Biden won by

00:31:19.300 4.5%.

00:31:20.860 That's the official

00:31:23.480 vote tally.

00:31:25.680 And so when

00:31:26.460 Rasmussen asked

00:31:27.960 people who they

00:31:28.560 voted for, do you

00:31:30.320 think it was kind

00:31:31.080 of close to that?

00:31:31.840 Kind of close to

00:31:33.100 the 4.5% gap?

00:31:36.840 No, it was

00:31:37.560 identical.

00:31:39.540 The same number

00:31:40.540 of people said

00:31:41.140 they voted for

00:31:41.740 Trump as for

00:31:42.860 Biden.

00:31:45.080 That's way off.

00:31:47.040 That's way off.

00:31:49.180 Do you think that

00:31:50.260 the polling would

00:31:51.520 be sensitive enough

00:31:52.780 to know that that

00:31:56.260 big a gap is like

00:31:58.380 a real problem or

00:31:59.560 just maybe something

00:32:01.400 about the way the

00:32:02.200 poll was conducted?

00:32:04.720 Well, I would say

00:32:05.600 one data point

00:32:06.500 doesn't confirm it.

00:32:09.280 You'd want to see

00:32:10.200 some other pollsters

00:32:11.300 take a whack at it.

00:32:12.720 You'd want everybody

00:32:13.500 to show their work.

00:32:14.920 But I'm pretty sure

00:32:15.840 Rasmussen shows

00:32:16.680 their work.

00:32:17.880 Am I wrong?

00:32:19.340 They show you

00:32:19.960 the cross tabs.

00:32:22.760 They show you

00:32:23.560 what their balance

00:32:24.300 was, you know,

00:32:24.960 how many Republicans,

00:32:26.060 how many Democrats.

00:32:27.180 So you could match

00:32:27.860 that to the

00:32:28.340 general public.

00:32:31.960 Can it be

00:32:32.620 reproduced?

00:32:35.060 And would you

00:32:35.760 be convinced

00:32:36.440 if it did?

00:32:38.680 All right, so

00:32:39.180 now, I convinced

00:32:42.420 you that that

00:32:42.980 meant something,

00:32:43.680 didn't I?

00:32:45.020 How many of you

00:32:45.860 are convinced

00:32:46.540 at this point

00:32:47.380 that, and everything

00:32:49.540 I said is true,

00:32:50.240 by the way,

00:32:50.680 as far as I know,

00:32:51.620 to the best of my

00:32:52.520 knowledge,

00:32:52.880 everything I just

00:32:53.460 told you is true.

00:32:54.940 How many of you

00:32:55.900 just felt convinced

00:32:56.980 that you just

00:32:58.600 found a giant

00:32:59.920 signal that's

00:33:00.680 very credible

00:33:01.300 for election

00:33:02.960 fraud?

00:33:06.340 It would be,

00:33:07.500 I'm pretty sure

00:33:08.340 it would be well

00:33:09.120 beyond the margin

00:33:10.360 of error.

00:33:10.780 like well

00:33:12.220 beyond, I

00:33:14.120 think.

00:33:14.700 I mean, I

00:33:15.160 could use a

00:33:15.600 fact check on

00:33:16.160 that, but I

00:33:16.500 don't think it's

00:33:17.380 close to the

00:33:18.680 margin of error.

00:33:21.100 All right, so

00:33:21.980 now that I've

00:33:22.560 convinced you,

00:33:23.240 do you think I

00:33:23.700 can unconvince

00:33:24.600 you just as

00:33:25.140 quickly?

00:33:27.760 Sort of an

00:33:28.380 experiment to

00:33:29.320 test your

00:33:30.060 mental flexibility.

00:33:32.660 All right, so

00:33:33.540 here's the thing

00:33:34.080 that convinced

00:33:34.600 you, that the

00:33:36.660 Rasmussen

00:33:37.600 after-the-fact

00:33:38.580 polling in

00:33:39.240 2016 matched

00:33:40.580 the actual

00:33:41.080 polling, but

00:33:42.520 in the one

00:33:43.020 that you have

00:33:43.540 some suspicions

00:33:44.360 about, the

00:33:44.880 2020 election,

00:33:46.220 there was a

00:33:46.760 pretty big

00:33:47.140 difference between

00:33:48.440 the actual

00:33:48.980 outcome and

00:33:49.900 what people

00:33:50.360 said after the

00:33:51.260 fact, how

00:33:51.880 they voted.

00:33:54.780 Ten percent

00:33:55.560 of Republicans

00:33:57.560 voted for

00:33:58.320 Biden in

00:34:00.900 2020, according

00:34:02.880 to Rasmussen

00:34:04.060 also.

00:34:05.160 So ten

00:34:05.600 percent.

00:34:06.680 Let me ask

00:34:07.220 you this.

00:34:07.600 if you were

00:34:09.580 one of the

00:34:10.120 ten percent

00:34:10.620 of the

00:34:11.100 Republicans who

00:34:11.860 voted for

00:34:12.340 Biden, how

00:34:14.020 would you feel

00:34:14.640 about your

00:34:15.100 decision right

00:34:16.020 now?

00:34:19.260 Think about

00:34:20.040 it.

00:34:20.960 How much

00:34:21.420 regret would

00:34:22.260 you have for

00:34:22.880 your decision

00:34:23.500 if you had

00:34:25.060 been one of

00:34:25.700 the Trump

00:34:26.460 people who

00:34:27.080 defected and

00:34:28.940 you put

00:34:29.420 Biden in?

00:34:30.440 Could you

00:34:30.920 possibly think

00:34:31.740 you made the

00:34:32.220 right choice?

00:34:33.460 No matter

00:34:33.900 what you

00:34:34.360 thought of

00:34:34.720 Trump, and

00:34:35.440 obviously you'd

00:34:36.160 have to have a

00:34:36.720 pretty bad

00:34:37.120 feeling to

00:34:38.140 be a

00:34:38.420 Republican and

00:34:39.140 vote against

00:34:39.700 him.

00:34:40.440 You'd have to

00:34:40.920 have a really

00:34:41.360 bad feeling

00:34:41.900 about Trump.

00:34:42.980 But do you

00:34:43.280 think any of

00:34:44.120 them think

00:34:45.320 they made the

00:34:45.920 right decision?

00:34:49.860 You know,

00:34:50.600 they might

00:34:51.340 torture themselves

00:34:52.340 with some

00:34:53.200 cognitive dissonance

00:34:54.480 about how they

00:34:55.040 did, but

00:34:56.360 here's a

00:34:58.200 predictable thing

00:34:59.120 that you could

00:34:59.880 imagine would

00:35:00.900 happen in that

00:35:01.560 scenario.

00:35:02.960 They would

00:35:03.740 misremember who

00:35:05.000 they voted

00:35:05.540 for, or

00:35:07.680 they would

00:35:09.360 refuse to

00:35:10.140 do the

00:35:10.540 poll once

00:35:11.220 they found

00:35:11.600 out what

00:35:11.940 it was

00:35:12.200 about.

00:35:16.200 Would there

00:35:17.100 ever have

00:35:17.680 been in

00:35:18.080 history a

00:35:19.400 group of

00:35:19.880 people who

00:35:20.980 would be

00:35:21.280 more likely

00:35:22.020 to be spun

00:35:22.880 into cognitive

00:35:23.680 dissonance and

00:35:25.260 have a false

00:35:25.960 memory or

00:35:27.400 refuse to

00:35:28.180 answer the

00:35:28.560 question?

00:35:28.900 think about

00:35:34.100 it.

00:35:34.960 You could

00:35:36.280 not

00:35:36.500 concoct in

00:35:37.280 your mind

00:35:37.880 any kind

00:35:39.020 of demographic

00:35:39.520 group more

00:35:40.880 likely to

00:35:41.540 lie on a

00:35:42.100 poll or to

00:35:44.180 be incorrect

00:35:44.980 with their own

00:35:45.480 memory or to

00:35:47.340 refuse to take

00:35:48.240 it.

00:35:49.420 You could not

00:35:50.280 come up with a

00:35:50.900 group more

00:35:51.580 likely to skew a

00:35:53.120 poll.

00:35:53.360 And did

00:35:57.580 such a group

00:35:58.240 exist in

00:35:59.060 2016 after

00:36:01.640 the election?

00:36:02.920 Were there a

00:36:03.640 similar number of

00:36:04.460 people who said,

00:36:05.340 oh my God,

00:36:06.440 I regret my

00:36:07.480 vote?

00:36:07.940 I don't think

00:36:08.540 so.

00:36:09.700 I don't think

00:36:10.260 so.

00:36:10.820 I think this is

00:36:11.580 the biggest

00:36:12.140 well of

00:36:13.700 regret that

00:36:15.660 we will ever

00:36:16.480 have seen in

00:36:18.020 a presidential

00:36:18.600 situation.

00:36:19.320 I mean,

00:36:21.800 people probably

00:36:22.400 regretted Nixon,

00:36:23.880 but Nixon was

00:36:24.860 sort of a

00:36:25.280 nothing compared

00:36:25.960 to what we're

00:36:27.180 seeing today.

00:36:29.280 So,

00:36:30.200 now,

00:36:30.900 here's my

00:36:31.260 question.

00:36:33.100 Suppose

00:36:33.700 Rasmussen and

00:36:35.300 other

00:36:35.880 polling groups

00:36:37.960 decided to

00:36:39.440 reproduce this

00:36:40.400 who did you

00:36:40.920 vote for

00:36:41.360 thing,

00:36:42.240 but to

00:36:42.660 concentrate on

00:36:43.580 only the

00:36:44.220 contested

00:36:45.240 places where

00:36:47.540 the election

00:36:48.080 was

00:36:48.780 putting off

00:36:50.000 signals that

00:36:50.880 it was not

00:36:51.320 operating the

00:36:51.960 way historically

00:36:52.680 you'd expect.

00:36:53.940 In other

00:36:54.480 words,

00:36:55.280 where Trump

00:36:56.240 did not win

00:36:56.980 where you

00:36:57.340 expected he

00:36:57.960 might have.

00:36:59.200 What would

00:36:59.660 happen if

00:37:00.780 you only did

00:37:01.500 your polling

00:37:01.920 in those

00:37:02.360 areas?

00:37:05.320 And what

00:37:06.000 would happen

00:37:06.380 if it was

00:37:06.820 more than

00:37:07.300 Rasmussen?

00:37:08.900 So that

00:37:09.480 other people

00:37:10.080 were,

00:37:10.560 you know,

00:37:11.640 minority

00:37:12.280 opinion,

00:37:13.140 maybe they

00:37:13.840 have a

00:37:14.100 different

00:37:14.420 result.

00:37:16.260 But

00:37:16.700 everybody's

00:37:17.100 got to

00:37:17.320 show their

00:37:17.660 work,

00:37:18.040 or else

00:37:18.600 don't

00:37:18.860 play.

00:37:20.040 Right?

00:37:20.260 If you

00:37:20.500 don't show

00:37:20.840 your work,

00:37:21.300 you can't

00:37:21.640 play.

00:37:22.860 But let's

00:37:23.500 have a

00:37:24.120 bake-off.

00:37:25.960 I don't

00:37:26.400 know how

00:37:26.580 I'd fund

00:37:26.980 it.

00:37:27.400 There must

00:37:27.660 be somebody

00:37:28.160 who's curious

00:37:28.780 enough to

00:37:29.260 fund it.

00:37:30.540 But let's

00:37:31.200 take three

00:37:31.960 separate polls.

00:37:33.720 Let's fund,

00:37:34.560 you know,

00:37:34.840 if somebody

00:37:35.280 would fund

00:37:35.880 Rasmussen to

00:37:36.680 do it,

00:37:38.540 two other

00:37:39.200 credible polling

00:37:40.380 companies,

00:37:40.920 whoever they

00:37:41.320 are,

00:37:41.760 maybe get

00:37:42.240 somebody who

00:37:42.720 leans left,

00:37:44.460 have everybody

00:37:45.380 guarantee that

00:37:46.060 they have to

00:37:46.400 show all

00:37:46.760 their work,

00:37:47.240 all their

00:37:47.480 cross tabs,

00:37:48.200 all their

00:37:48.400 data,

00:37:49.360 use the

00:37:49.800 same

00:37:50.020 technique,

00:37:51.240 ideally,

00:37:52.600 ideally you'd

00:37:53.420 get to ask

00:37:54.040 the same

00:37:54.420 question.

00:37:56.460 Or at

00:37:57.020 least the

00:37:57.500 three of

00:37:57.840 them agree

00:37:58.260 how they'd

00:37:58.800 ask the

00:37:59.100 question.

00:38:00.380 And then

00:38:00.960 find out.

00:38:04.440 What would

00:38:05.080 it tell you

00:38:05.640 if there was

00:38:06.460 the biggest

00:38:06.960 amount of

00:38:07.660 regret in

00:38:09.380 those areas?

00:38:10.680 Well,

00:38:11.100 here's what I

00:38:11.660 would look

00:38:11.920 for.

00:38:14.240 I would

00:38:14.800 look for

00:38:15.140 any further

00:38:16.260 anomalies.

00:38:17.740 Like,

00:38:18.060 is there an

00:38:18.940 even exaggerated

00:38:19.920 difference in

00:38:20.980 those areas?

00:38:21.880 Or does it

00:38:22.700 disappear in

00:38:23.340 those areas?

00:38:24.100 That would

00:38:24.420 be interesting.

00:38:26.560 So,

00:38:27.400 I almost

00:38:29.340 wonder if

00:38:32.500 there isn't

00:38:32.900 a way to

00:38:33.560 find out if

00:38:34.520 the election

00:38:35.020 was valid.

00:38:37.160 And Rasmussen

00:38:37.720 has been just

00:38:38.300 all over this

00:38:38.980 from the

00:38:39.700 beginning.

00:38:40.020 in the

00:38:41.060 very,

00:38:42.460 I would

00:38:42.760 say,

00:38:42.980 the most

00:38:43.380 sane way.

00:38:44.680 They're

00:38:45.060 pretty much

00:38:45.460 sticking to

00:38:46.080 what we

00:38:46.480 know and

00:38:46.900 what's being

00:38:47.280 reported,

00:38:48.500 plus their

00:38:49.360 own polling.

00:38:51.700 All right.

00:38:56.320 So,

00:38:56.960 I did this

00:38:57.420 poll this

00:38:59.580 morning.

00:39:00.080 I said,

00:39:00.860 if you say

00:39:01.900 you know an

00:39:02.540 election was

00:39:03.220 fair,

00:39:04.980 meaning that

00:39:07.820 you believe

00:39:08.240 you know the

00:39:08.840 unknowable,

00:39:10.020 what is the

00:39:10.560 root cause

00:39:11.060 of your

00:39:11.280 problem?

00:39:12.740 All right,

00:39:13.080 so let me

00:39:13.380 say it again.

00:39:14.740 This is just

00:39:15.300 a beautiful

00:39:15.760 poll question,

00:39:17.080 if I do

00:39:17.540 say so myself.

00:39:19.560 If you

00:39:20.140 know the

00:39:20.700 2020 election

00:39:21.600 was fair,

00:39:23.040 meaning you

00:39:23.680 believe you

00:39:24.260 know the

00:39:24.720 unknowable,

00:39:26.040 what is the

00:39:26.620 root cause

00:39:27.120 of your

00:39:27.420 problem?

00:39:28.720 And I gave

00:39:29.100 four choices.

00:39:29.860 I'm under-informed,

00:39:31.060 I'm lying,

00:39:32.220 I have mental

00:39:32.860 illness,

00:39:33.700 and I am

00:39:34.320 not smart.

00:39:34.900 because I

00:39:38.180 don't think

00:39:38.520 there's another

00:39:39.020 explanation,

00:39:39.780 is there?

00:39:42.460 Is there?

00:39:43.660 Is there any

00:39:44.440 other explanation?

00:39:45.940 If somebody

00:39:46.660 says they

00:39:47.140 know the

00:39:47.680 unknowable,

00:39:48.900 and they'll

00:39:49.360 say that right

00:39:49.940 to your face,

00:39:51.200 what are the

00:39:52.200 other explanations?

00:39:57.160 They're either

00:39:57.840 under-informed,

00:40:00.380 meaning they

00:40:00.940 believe that the

00:40:01.600 courts can tell 0.53

00:40:02.460 you for sure

00:40:03.180 whether the

00:40:03.680 system is

00:40:04.180 rigged versus

00:40:05.300 one that was

00:40:05.920 rigged so

00:40:06.360 well you

00:40:06.700 can't tell.

00:40:08.160 I mean,

00:40:08.360 that's what

00:40:08.640 we're looking

00:40:09.060 at, right?

00:40:09.980 So the

00:40:10.480 allegation,

00:40:11.220 of which I

00:40:11.760 have no

00:40:12.260 proof or

00:40:13.280 evidence,

00:40:14.180 the allegation

00:40:14.920 that many

00:40:15.360 make is that

00:40:16.840 if it was

00:40:17.480 rigged,

00:40:18.440 it was rigged

00:40:19.080 well,

00:40:20.320 so that it

00:40:21.360 would be hard

00:40:21.860 to determine

00:40:23.360 it with a

00:40:26.240 cursory audit

00:40:27.140 or just

00:40:27.560 looking at

00:40:28.000 the data.

00:40:30.180 So how

00:40:30.620 could you

00:40:31.480 know

00:40:31.860 that an

00:40:33.400 election

00:40:33.660 either has

00:40:34.300 no evidence

00:40:35.640 of fraud

00:40:36.380 or that

00:40:38.340 it was done

00:40:38.780 so well

00:40:39.400 that you

00:40:40.180 can't find

00:40:40.700 the evidence

00:40:41.180 of fraud?

00:40:42.140 How would

00:40:42.640 you know

00:40:42.940 which one

00:40:43.300 you're looking

00:40:43.640 at?

00:40:45.140 If you

00:40:45.720 think you

00:40:46.160 can tell

00:40:46.500 the difference,

00:40:48.500 what is

00:40:50.420 your problem?

00:40:52.520 It has

00:40:53.120 nothing to do

00:40:53.660 with the

00:40:53.880 election,

00:40:54.360 it's just

00:40:55.140 a way to

00:40:55.540 tell there's

00:40:55.960 something wrong

00:40:56.500 with your

00:40:56.800 brain or

00:40:57.280 something,

00:40:58.060 right?

00:40:59.340 This has

00:40:59.920 nothing to do

00:41:00.500 with the

00:41:00.660 election.

00:41:00.920 If you

00:41:01.800 would say

00:41:02.140 confidently,

00:41:03.280 I know

00:41:04.100 the unknowable,

00:41:07.140 then you're

00:41:07.600 either under

00:41:08.120 informed,

00:41:08.700 lying,

00:41:09.220 mental illness,

00:41:09.980 or you're

00:41:10.260 just not

00:41:10.760 smart,

00:41:11.340 so you don't

00:41:11.840 know that

00:41:12.180 that doesn't

00:41:12.600 make sense.

00:41:14.220 I don't

00:41:14.820 know if there's

00:41:15.220 any other

00:41:15.600 options.

00:41:16.300 Are there?

00:41:17.060 Is this

00:41:17.460 unfair?

00:41:17.840 All right.

00:41:21.740 So under

00:41:28.120 the category

00:41:28.840 of Republicans

00:41:29.700 will be

00:41:30.200 hunted,

00:41:30.660 did you

00:41:30.860 hear the

00:41:31.140 story about

00:41:31.880 the Washington

00:41:32.520 commander's

00:41:33.480 defensive

00:41:34.580 coordinator,

00:41:35.300 this guy

00:41:35.620 Jack Del Rio?

00:41:37.400 He was

00:41:37.860 fined $100,000

00:41:38.940 by his team

00:41:39.680 for asking

00:41:40.380 why the

00:41:41.360 2020 Black

00:41:42.240 Lives Matter

00:41:42.840 riots weren't

00:41:43.820 treated as

00:41:44.380 seriously as

00:41:45.100 the January

00:41:45.540 6th riots.

00:41:46.420 And that

00:41:50.220 cost him

00:41:50.620 $100,000.

00:41:52.880 Now, just

00:41:53.780 to put it

00:41:54.080 in context,

00:41:55.200 the Black

00:41:55.660 Lives Matter

00:41:56.220 riots allegedly

00:41:57.380 caused the

00:41:58.880 deaths of

00:41:59.500 30 people.

00:42:03.560 But that's

00:42:04.700 not the way

00:42:05.100 you compare

00:42:05.580 them, right?

00:42:07.680 Like, you

00:42:08.360 don't say,

00:42:09.740 World War

00:42:10.940 II killed

00:42:12.420 60 million

00:42:13.120 people.

00:42:15.160 You know,

00:42:15.340 you don't

00:42:15.840 really compare

00:42:17.480 things that

00:42:17.960 are not

00:42:18.220 comparable.

00:42:19.300 So the

00:42:19.980 purpose behind

00:42:20.700 the Black

00:42:21.100 Lives Matter

00:42:21.620 protest was

00:42:22.300 completely

00:42:22.680 different from

00:42:23.380 the purposes

00:42:24.020 of the

00:42:24.880 protests at

00:42:27.200 the Capitol.

00:42:28.120 And that

00:42:28.600 would be the

00:42:29.020 point of

00:42:29.780 the employer

00:42:30.280 who was

00:42:32.080 saying that

00:42:32.700 for Jack

00:42:33.920 Del Rio,

00:42:34.620 their defensive

00:42:35.220 coordinator,

00:42:36.300 for him to

00:42:36.860 even put them

00:42:37.520 in the same

00:42:37.960 sentence as

00:42:38.960 comparables

00:42:40.060 is disgusting.

00:42:42.500 And I

00:42:42.700 think their

00:42:43.000 point was

00:42:43.640 that the

00:42:48.920 Black Lives

00:42:49.520 Matter

00:42:49.900 looters had

00:42:51.240 good intentions.

00:42:53.320 Whereas the

00:42:54.360 January 6th

00:42:55.440 protesters who

00:42:57.020 were trying to

00:42:57.660 make sure that

00:42:58.320 the republic had

00:42:59.320 not been

00:42:59.980 victimized by a

00:43:02.240 rigged election

00:43:02.880 and they wanted

00:43:03.960 to take a

00:43:04.520 pause to make

00:43:05.140 sure that that

00:43:05.700 hadn't happened,

00:43:06.920 that the people

00:43:07.480 trying to protect

00:43:08.360 the republic,

00:43:09.060 that was bad

00:43:10.940 intentions.

00:43:13.340 And so if you

00:43:13.900 support these

00:43:14.600 people who

00:43:15.960 had the bad

00:43:16.540 intention of

00:43:17.200 trying to make

00:43:17.780 sure the

00:43:18.140 election was

00:43:18.820 fair and

00:43:19.820 accurate,

00:43:21.900 that's

00:43:22.820 despicable.

00:43:24.920 Whereas it

00:43:25.940 would be more

00:43:26.620 of a noble

00:43:27.140 thing to

00:43:28.100 support the

00:43:29.740 rioters and

00:43:30.420 the looters,

00:43:31.320 and especially

00:43:31.760 the murderers,

00:43:33.300 during the

00:43:33.860 Black Lives

00:43:34.360 Matter protests.

00:43:35.440 Now I'm not

00:43:35.940 going to say

00:43:36.260 they were the

00:43:37.080 majority.

00:43:37.520 like I'm

00:43:39.480 no crazy

00:43:41.440 partisan.

00:43:44.540 Wouldn't you

00:43:45.140 think that the

00:43:45.720 vast majority

00:43:46.440 of both the

00:43:47.080 Black Lives

00:43:47.580 Matter and

00:43:48.340 the January

00:43:49.040 6th people

00:43:49.700 were not

00:43:51.100 doing any

00:43:51.540 violence at

00:43:52.040 all?

00:43:52.920 We all agree

00:43:53.800 on that,

00:43:54.200 right?

00:43:54.980 That the

00:43:55.860 vast majority

00:43:57.020 of both the

00:43:59.080 January 6th

00:43:59.800 people and

00:44:01.360 the Black

00:44:01.760 Lives Matter

00:44:02.260 protests were

00:44:02.980 well-intentioned.

00:44:04.620 The vast

00:44:05.480 majority of

00:44:06.060 them.

00:44:06.580 They didn't

00:44:07.040 mean violence,

00:44:07.800 they didn't

00:44:08.160 mean looting,

00:44:08.900 they didn't

00:44:09.220 mean to

00:44:09.560 hurt anybody,

00:44:10.420 the vast

00:44:10.860 majority of

00:44:11.460 them.

00:44:13.060 But some

00:44:15.440 of them were

00:44:16.320 looters and

00:44:16.960 rioters and

00:44:17.600 some of them

00:44:18.060 were despicable,

00:44:21.740 treasonous

00:44:22.840 people maybe.

00:44:25.660 So you can't

00:44:26.520 put them in

00:44:26.920 the same

00:44:27.200 sentence because

00:44:29.120 of the bad

00:44:29.940 intentions of

00:44:30.700 the people who

00:44:31.140 were trying to

00:44:31.620 save the

00:44:32.020 republic from

00:44:32.780 what they

00:44:33.200 thought could

00:44:33.780 have been a

00:44:34.340 rigged election

00:44:34.880 and wanted to

00:44:35.560 check that out.

00:44:37.040 before certifying

00:44:37.800 versus the 0.55

00:44:40.220 Black Lives

00:44:40.760 Matter people 0.66

00:44:41.280 who had the

00:44:41.700 good intentions

00:44:42.500 of, in

00:44:45.500 many cases,

00:44:46.400 killing people

00:44:46.940 and looting.

00:44:49.180 But the

00:44:50.720 vast majority

00:44:51.500 of them wanted

00:44:52.800 a fairer,

00:44:53.980 safer world.

00:44:55.780 Can we

00:44:56.160 agree?

00:44:57.820 The Black 0.96

00:44:58.720 Lives Matter

00:44:59.240 protests were

00:45:01.660 about creating

00:45:02.820 a better,

00:45:04.420 fairer world.

00:45:05.160 angels, but

00:45:06.860 like every

00:45:07.880 big group,

00:45:09.200 not exactly

00:45:10.000 all angels

00:45:10.920 within them.

00:45:12.700 Some of

00:45:13.140 them, I

00:45:13.860 suppose, were

00:45:14.840 fine people.

00:45:16.980 Anyway, Fox

00:45:18.460 News.

00:45:19.100 It's always

00:45:19.580 interesting that

00:45:20.260 Fox News is the

00:45:21.200 one making the

00:45:21.880 most noise

00:45:22.660 about the

00:45:26.460 fact that

00:45:26.840 there's like a

00:45:27.400 black murder 0.99

00:45:28.360 holocaust going 0.96

00:45:29.640 on in the

00:45:30.140 country.

00:45:30.460 This is

00:45:32.160 from Fox

00:45:32.820 Reporting, and

00:45:34.060 I give them

00:45:34.460 credit for

00:45:34.960 this.

00:45:38.880 This number

00:45:39.660 just was

00:45:40.080 shocking.

00:45:41.600 So the

00:45:41.920 number of

00:45:42.340 black Americans

00:45:43.240 who were

00:45:43.720 murdered, because

00:45:44.460 the murder rate

00:45:45.460 has spiked for

00:45:46.080 everybody, but

00:45:46.840 for black

00:45:47.340 Americans, it's 0.98

00:45:48.400 just really high,

00:45:49.660 and it's

00:45:50.400 happened since

00:45:50.920 2020.

00:45:51.420 But the

00:45:53.320 number of

00:45:53.740 black Americans

00:45:54.600 were murdered

00:45:55.180 in 2019

00:45:56.060 was 7,000.

00:45:59.780 Let's just

00:46:00.240 round it off

00:46:00.680 to 7,500.

00:46:03.340 And it

00:46:03.980 shot up to

00:46:04.820 nearly 10,000

00:46:07.120 murders in

00:46:08.140 2020.

00:46:09.600 10,000 black

00:46:10.900 people murdered.

00:46:14.600 Compare

00:46:15.200 that to the

00:46:17.220 number of

00:46:17.680 white people

00:46:18.220 who were

00:46:18.500 murdered, which

00:46:19.080 was only 7,000.

00:46:20.260 So the

00:46:22.280 black population

00:46:23.060 is 13% of

00:46:24.440 the country.

00:46:25.560 The white 0.76

00:46:26.020 population is

00:46:28.060 50.

00:46:30.940 What is the

00:46:31.720 white population?

00:46:33.020 It's under

00:46:33.780 50, isn't

00:46:34.340 it?

00:46:36.280 No, it's

00:46:37.260 not over

00:46:37.620 50%.

00:46:38.240 I thought the

00:46:39.460 news was that

00:46:40.740 the white

00:46:41.140 population dipped

00:46:42.100 under 50.

00:46:43.900 I think it's

00:46:44.320 49 or

00:46:45.000 something.

00:46:46.160 But still,

00:46:47.960 so the odds

00:46:49.420 of being

00:46:49.780 murdered

00:46:50.120 if you're

00:46:50.520 black are 0.99

00:46:51.240 like a

00:46:52.420 ghastly

00:46:52.900 multiple

00:46:53.320 of being

00:46:55.280 white.

00:46:56.120 We don't

00:46:58.080 talk about

00:46:58.520 that.

00:46:59.860 You know,

00:47:00.080 it's weird

00:47:00.480 because here

00:47:01.800 you've got

00:47:02.240 Fox News

00:47:02.960 and the

00:47:03.420 Republicans

00:47:03.840 who are

00:47:04.400 totally ready

00:47:05.120 to talk

00:47:05.600 about that.

00:47:07.260 That there's

00:47:08.020 this gigantic

00:47:08.640 problem that

00:47:09.380 needs to be

00:47:09.820 addressed

00:47:10.220 primarily for

00:47:12.160 the benefit

00:47:12.620 of the,

00:47:13.180 not primarily,

00:47:13.920 but certainly

00:47:14.420 focused in

00:47:15.960 the black

00:47:16.300 community where

00:47:17.020 the problem

00:47:17.420 is the

00:47:17.700 biggest,

00:47:18.340 most number

00:47:19.500 of murders.

00:47:22.640 Why can't

00:47:23.320 they find a

00:47:23.800 way to work

00:47:24.240 on that?

00:47:25.740 Of all the

00:47:26.820 things?

00:47:27.560 Like complete

00:47:28.180 agreement.

00:47:28.780 Okay, this is

00:47:29.300 a giant

00:47:29.620 problem, what

00:47:30.220 do we do

00:47:30.560 about it?

00:47:32.160 Do you know

00:47:32.460 what the

00:47:32.660 problem is?

00:47:34.280 Teachers' 0.72

00:47:34.760 unions.

00:47:35.880 That's just

00:47:36.440 my opinion.

00:47:37.740 In my

00:47:38.120 opinion, the

00:47:38.620 reason that

00:47:39.060 you can't

00:47:39.520 even work

00:47:40.020 on the

00:47:40.260 stuff you

00:47:40.620 agree on

00:47:41.380 is the

00:47:42.300 teachers' 0.80

00:47:42.580 unions.

00:47:43.740 Because how

00:47:44.500 would you

00:47:44.860 start?

00:47:45.200 Well, you'd

00:47:46.240 work on

00:47:46.700 at least

00:47:48.540 making sure

00:47:49.040 the next

00:47:49.480 generation has

00:47:50.280 a chance.

00:47:51.340 Because it's

00:47:51.740 tough to fix

00:47:53.020 the adult

00:47:53.500 population.

00:47:54.920 That's tough

00:47:55.520 without

00:47:55.900 incarceration

00:47:56.580 and brutal

00:47:57.660 stuff.

00:47:58.460 But you

00:47:58.760 could maybe

00:47:59.280 get a school

00:48:01.020 choice and

00:48:01.720 fix school for

00:48:02.520 everybody who's

00:48:03.080 in a disadvantaged

00:48:03.800 situation if the

00:48:05.520 teachers' unions

00:48:06.200 allowed competition.

00:48:08.100 So the

00:48:08.460 teachers' unions

00:48:09.040 basically block

00:48:10.160 any chance of

00:48:11.660 the next

00:48:12.040 generation getting

00:48:12.820 fixed.

00:48:13.180 And this

00:48:14.620 is where the

00:48:15.300 Republicans would

00:48:16.240 help.

00:48:18.060 I mean, is

00:48:19.140 there anybody

00:48:19.680 on the left

00:48:21.060 or the right

00:48:21.800 who would

00:48:22.380 disagree with

00:48:23.040 the statement,

00:48:24.380 well, at

00:48:24.700 least let's

00:48:25.160 fix the next

00:48:25.780 generation?

00:48:27.840 Like, who

00:48:28.220 would disagree

00:48:28.680 with that?

00:48:30.360 And since

00:48:31.400 there's a

00:48:32.480 fairly

00:48:32.920 straightforward

00:48:34.400 method for

00:48:35.540 doing it,

00:48:36.680 which is you

00:48:37.280 run a bunch

00:48:37.840 of experiments,

00:48:39.280 you see if

00:48:39.780 the experiments

00:48:40.320 work, and

00:48:41.680 then if they

00:48:42.160 work, or at

00:48:43.080 least the

00:48:43.320 ones that

00:48:43.640 work, you

00:48:44.060 do more

00:48:44.460 of.

00:48:45.300 Who's going

00:48:45.860 to disagree

00:48:46.320 with that?

00:48:47.600 Because if

00:48:48.100 you think that

00:48:48.620 competition in

00:48:49.420 schools is a

00:48:50.140 solution, put

00:48:51.400 together a

00:48:51.960 real proper

00:48:52.760 test, run it

00:48:54.700 for three

00:48:55.120 years, and

00:48:55.660 then have a

00:48:56.200 plan to

00:48:56.880 follow wherever

00:48:57.940 that test

00:48:58.460 takes you.

00:49:00.200 So I'm

00:49:04.560 seeing people

00:49:05.820 who have

00:49:06.040 looked up the

00:49:06.700 percentage of

00:49:07.600 whites.

00:49:08.020 I see

00:49:08.180 somebody says

00:49:08.660 59%.

00:49:09.760 Well, I

00:49:11.640 guess there's

00:49:11.980 some, I

00:49:14.480 will accept

00:49:14.900 59%.

00:49:16.120 I don't

00:49:17.340 know, it's

00:49:17.540 somewhere in

00:49:17.880 that range.

00:49:20.040 It might

00:49:20.320 depend who

00:49:21.800 you include

00:49:22.640 as white,

00:49:23.340 right?

00:49:24.620 Because there's

00:49:25.300 some definitional

00:49:26.380 issues with

00:49:27.020 that.

00:49:29.580 So we're

00:49:30.280 always talking

00:49:30.780 about the

00:49:31.860 number of

00:49:32.640 illegal immigrants,

00:49:33.580 and the

00:49:35.120 two sides

00:49:35.640 argue like

00:49:36.280 this.

00:49:38.020 The right

00:49:38.860 would say,

00:49:40.100 stop all

00:49:41.280 that immigration, 0.84

00:49:43.080 or at least

00:49:43.740 some members

00:49:44.440 of the right,

00:49:45.080 or at least

00:49:45.500 bring it down

00:49:46.760 to a trickle.

00:49:48.340 The left

00:49:48.960 would say

00:49:49.380 something,

00:49:49.800 and again,

00:49:50.140 I'm just

00:49:50.480 characterizing

00:49:51.660 generally,

00:49:52.360 not anybody's

00:49:53.240 specific opinion.

00:49:54.900 And the left

00:49:55.500 would say

00:49:55.840 something closer

00:49:56.540 to open-nosed

00:49:57.920 borders,

00:49:58.880 and again,

00:49:59.500 not any

00:50:00.060 specific Democrat.

00:50:01.620 Some of them

00:50:02.180 would like

00:50:02.700 tighter borders.

00:50:03.580 But sort of

00:50:04.620 generally speaking,

00:50:05.860 one side says,

00:50:07.020 let's have

00:50:07.780 lots more,

00:50:09.060 and the other

00:50:09.780 side says,

00:50:10.780 let's have

00:50:11.260 fewer.

00:50:12.080 Would you

00:50:12.460 accept that

00:50:13.000 characterization

00:50:13.580 as a general

00:50:15.660 characterization?

00:50:17.040 The left

00:50:17.560 wants more

00:50:18.380 immigration

00:50:19.800 through a

00:50:21.140 variety of

00:50:21.800 different

00:50:22.160 policy

00:50:22.860 mechanisms,

00:50:25.320 and the

00:50:26.220 right would

00:50:26.660 like less

00:50:27.240 of it.

00:50:29.500 What's

00:50:30.140 missing in

00:50:30.720 the conversation?

00:50:31.420 Do you

00:50:33.320 realize how

00:50:33.760 badly

00:50:34.220 duped

00:50:34.880 we are

00:50:35.440 by this

00:50:35.900 news?

00:50:37.180 Because the

00:50:37.880 thing that's

00:50:38.260 missing in

00:50:39.040 the conversation

00:50:39.720 is,

00:50:40.980 and you're

00:50:41.400 going to be

00:50:41.660 pissed when

00:50:42.160 I tell you,

00:50:43.680 the correct

00:50:45.020 number.

00:50:47.480 If we

00:50:48.160 don't know,

00:50:50.360 permission to

00:50:51.080 swear?

00:50:53.320 Permission to

00:50:54.000 swear,

00:50:54.320 you might have

00:50:54.680 some kids

00:50:55.040 at home.

00:50:56.800 This requires

00:50:57.960 the F word.

00:50:58.680 word.

00:50:59.720 I don't know.

00:51:00.200 I tried to

00:51:00.640 get away

00:51:00.960 without it,

00:51:01.580 but it

00:51:01.960 kind of

00:51:02.200 requires it.

00:51:03.860 So it's

00:51:04.440 going to

00:51:04.560 be a little

00:51:04.860 bit of

00:51:05.080 swearing.

00:51:05.740 It'll be

00:51:06.000 in context.

00:51:06.660 It won't

00:51:06.840 be bad.

00:51:09.040 How do

00:51:09.600 you know

00:51:09.960 if you

00:51:10.300 have too

00:51:10.920 much of

00:51:12.220 something or

00:51:13.480 too little

00:51:14.100 of something

00:51:14.720 if you

00:51:16.100 don't know

00:51:16.640 the right

00:51:17.120 fucking

00:51:17.520 number?

00:51:19.740 And

00:51:20.140 somehow,

00:51:21.640 our

00:51:22.360 brainwashers

00:51:23.220 have convinced

00:51:23.840 us that

00:51:24.900 we should

00:51:25.260 have strong

00:51:25.900 opinions on

00:51:27.820 whether we

00:51:28.320 have too

00:51:28.860 much or

00:51:29.720 too little

00:51:30.320 of a thing

00:51:30.880 that you

00:51:31.880 don't know

00:51:32.320 the fucking

00:51:32.980 right number.

00:51:34.820 Nobody even

00:51:35.580 talks about

00:51:36.520 whether there

00:51:37.220 is a fucking 0.97

00:51:38.160 right number.

00:51:39.400 Do you know

00:51:39.740 how badly

00:51:40.420 you're being

00:51:40.960 abused right

00:51:41.720 now by

00:51:43.140 the news

00:51:44.080 entities,

00:51:44.700 both left

00:51:45.240 and right?

00:51:46.080 You are

00:51:46.700 being absolutely

00:51:47.880 fucking

00:51:48.500 victimized.

00:51:50.320 The

00:51:50.960 conversation

00:51:51.620 that credible

00:51:52.860 people would

00:51:53.480 have,

00:51:53.840 is what's

00:51:54.620 the right

00:51:54.920 number?

00:51:56.980 What's the

00:51:57.420 right number?

00:51:58.220 There might

00:51:58.600 be a lot

00:51:58.960 of disagreement

00:51:59.500 on that.

00:52:01.000 But there

00:52:01.420 is a

00:52:02.120 conversation

00:52:02.740 about what's

00:52:03.640 the economic

00:52:04.320 best number,

00:52:05.480 at what

00:52:05.880 point is it

00:52:06.500 only good

00:52:06.920 for the

00:52:07.180 immigrants

00:52:07.520 and it's

00:52:07.980 not good

00:52:08.360 for the

00:52:08.740 people who

00:52:09.280 are already

00:52:09.600 here,

00:52:10.620 when is it

00:52:11.300 good for

00:52:11.660 the, let's

00:52:12.580 say, lower

00:52:13.680 income

00:52:14.120 Americans versus 0.99

00:52:15.160 when is it

00:52:15.720 good for the

00:52:16.080 higher income

00:52:16.660 Americans,

00:52:17.860 what's the

00:52:18.320 short term

00:52:18.780 impact,

00:52:19.300 what's the

00:52:19.620 long term

00:52:20.100 impact,

00:52:21.120 and how

00:52:21.520 many is the

00:52:22.380 right number

00:52:22.900 and right

00:52:23.380 mix of

00:52:24.420 immigrants?

00:52:26.840 Tucker asked,

00:52:28.300 right,

00:52:29.480 asking the

00:52:30.140 question is

00:52:31.880 at least

00:52:32.920 showing that

00:52:33.500 you're awake,

00:52:35.340 but if you

00:52:37.040 want me to

00:52:37.880 get deeply

00:52:38.980 into a

00:52:39.420 conversation of

00:52:40.340 whether there

00:52:40.860 are too

00:52:41.160 many immigrants

00:52:42.540 coming over

00:52:43.260 in the

00:52:43.720 migration,

00:52:44.660 you better

00:52:45.120 come with a

00:52:45.680 number of

00:52:46.100 what the

00:52:46.420 right fucking

00:52:47.200 number is,

00:52:47.880 because I

00:52:49.820 don't even

00:52:50.120 want to

00:52:50.400 hear it,

00:52:51.980 right?

00:52:53.380 I do not

00:52:54.320 want to

00:52:54.620 hear that

00:52:55.500 there are

00:52:55.760 too many

00:52:56.180 coming or

00:52:56.800 there are

00:52:57.080 too few

00:52:57.460 coming.

00:52:59.040 I don't

00:52:59.560 even want

00:52:59.880 to hear your

00:53:01.320 wall talk.

00:53:03.360 Like, I don't

00:53:03.960 want to even

00:53:04.300 hear anybody

00:53:04.800 talk about a

00:53:05.360 wall if they 0.99

00:53:05.980 can't also

00:53:06.440 say, well,

00:53:07.640 here's how we

00:53:08.160 figure out what

00:53:08.720 the right

00:53:09.020 number is.

00:53:10.140 Now, if you

00:53:10.960 can figure out

00:53:11.540 what the right

00:53:11.980 number is,

00:53:12.640 then I want to

00:53:13.260 talk wall all

00:53:14.200 day long.

00:53:14.740 because once

00:53:16.060 you've decided

00:53:16.660 that you can

00:53:17.360 determine the

00:53:17.980 right number,

00:53:19.520 well, then a

00:53:20.020 wall makes

00:53:20.420 sense, because

00:53:21.700 that keeps you

00:53:22.260 from having

00:53:22.720 too many.

00:53:24.340 Simple as

00:53:25.000 that.

00:53:26.040 But if you're

00:53:26.520 not even having

00:53:27.100 a conversation

00:53:27.740 about the

00:53:28.240 right number,

00:53:30.800 fuck off.

00:53:32.500 Just fuck

00:53:33.300 off.

00:53:34.480 Don't even

00:53:35.160 talk to me

00:53:35.640 about it at

00:53:36.180 all.

00:53:39.100 At all.

00:53:42.540 All right.

00:53:44.740 How many

00:53:46.100 people are a

00:53:48.320 little bit

00:53:48.680 offended by

00:53:49.360 this?

00:53:50.000 Because a lot

00:53:50.640 of you are

00:53:51.000 having the

00:53:51.440 following

00:53:51.780 experience.

00:53:53.400 Oh, I did

00:53:55.020 have a strong

00:53:55.600 opinion that

00:53:56.220 there were too

00:53:56.660 many or too

00:53:57.380 few, and it

00:53:59.320 doesn't make

00:53:59.880 any sense,

00:54:00.520 because I don't

00:54:01.120 know what the

00:54:01.500 right number

00:54:01.900 is.

00:54:03.400 Now, you

00:54:04.000 could say to

00:54:04.520 yourself, but

00:54:05.080 I'm sure there

00:54:05.640 are too many.

00:54:08.300 But you

00:54:08.940 shouldn't be.

00:54:10.820 Really?

00:54:12.160 Is a million

00:54:13.380 immigrants too

00:54:14.220 many?

00:54:14.740 In one

00:54:15.400 year?

00:54:17.780 Do you

00:54:18.300 think you

00:54:18.600 know that?

00:54:19.840 Do you

00:54:20.180 think you

00:54:20.540 know if a

00:54:21.980 million immigrants

00:54:22.860 a year is the

00:54:23.780 right number?

00:54:25.180 I don't.

00:54:26.360 No, let's

00:54:27.000 say legal or

00:54:27.720 illegal, do

00:54:28.900 you know the

00:54:29.300 right number

00:54:29.840 for our

00:54:30.500 economic

00:54:30.980 well-being?

00:54:32.360 It could

00:54:32.960 easily be

00:54:33.520 that we

00:54:33.880 need a

00:54:34.180 million.

00:54:35.240 Easily.

00:54:35.960 We're at

00:54:36.320 3.6

00:54:37.000 employment.

00:54:38.760 People are

00:54:39.280 begging for

00:54:39.800 employees.

00:54:41.060 My DoorDash

00:54:42.460 guy, he

00:54:43.400 doesn't speak

00:54:43.900 any English.

00:54:46.020 None.

00:54:47.140 DoorDash had

00:54:47.820 to hire

00:54:48.160 somebody who

00:54:49.500 doesn't speak

00:54:50.000 any English.

00:54:51.020 I'm not sure

00:54:51.660 they were aware

00:54:52.280 of it, but

00:54:53.100 he didn't

00:54:54.240 speak any

00:54:54.680 English.

00:54:55.740 Now, he

00:54:55.940 still got it

00:54:56.460 done because

00:54:57.420 the text, if

00:54:59.200 you text with

00:54:59.940 Google, it

00:55:00.660 translates.

00:55:01.520 It's like

00:55:01.900 a freaking

00:55:02.320 miracle.

00:55:03.340 So we can

00:55:03.860 still communicate

00:55:04.500 by text.

00:55:05.740 But just

00:55:06.400 think of the

00:55:06.900 fact that we're

00:55:07.980 not even close

00:55:08.740 to having

00:55:09.100 enough workers.

00:55:12.140 I don't

00:55:12.800 even understand

00:55:14.080 why we need

00:55:14.740 more manual

00:55:15.460 labor.

00:55:16.980 Because

00:55:17.380 weren't we

00:55:18.880 supposed to

00:55:19.280 run out of

00:55:19.900 a need for

00:55:20.580 manual labor? 0.57

00:55:21.620 It was all

00:55:21.920 supposed to be

00:55:22.480 farm robots and

00:55:23.900 stuff.

00:55:24.400 We must be

00:55:25.060 pretty far away

00:55:25.660 from that.

00:55:26.820 Because we're

00:55:27.480 running out of

00:55:28.040 labor.

00:55:29.500 So how

00:55:30.460 about you

00:55:31.260 say 2

00:55:31.720 million?

00:55:32.940 So you say,

00:55:33.480 okay, Scott,

00:55:34.140 you talked me

00:55:35.320 into, I don't

00:55:35.900 know if 1

00:55:36.480 million is too

00:55:37.480 many.

00:55:38.140 I don't

00:55:38.760 know if it's

00:55:39.160 not enough.

00:55:40.680 But 2

00:55:41.380 million is

00:55:41.820 certainly too

00:55:42.320 many, right?

00:55:44.160 If I said

00:55:45.000 2 million in

00:55:46.260 one year,

00:55:47.220 that's definitely

00:55:48.340 too many.

00:55:49.300 Am I right?

00:55:51.180 No, I'm not.

00:55:52.400 How would you

00:55:52.840 know?

00:55:53.820 I wouldn't

00:55:54.420 know.

00:55:55.480 I honestly

00:55:56.180 don't know if

00:55:56.760 2 million is

00:55:57.340 too many.

00:55:58.300 Honestly, I

00:55:58.860 don't know.

00:56:00.660 And I'd love

00:56:01.420 to see the

00:56:01.880 argument.

00:56:03.000 Because as

00:56:03.840 Elon Musk

00:56:04.500 points out,

00:56:06.000 and I don't

00:56:07.100 know if he

00:56:07.360 know, but

00:56:07.700 he's kind

00:56:08.040 of smart.

00:56:08.760 Have you

00:56:09.020 heard?

00:56:10.000 Elon Musk,

00:56:10.820 kind of smart

00:56:11.400 about a bunch

00:56:11.880 of things.

00:56:12.860 He's been

00:56:13.440 warning that 0.80

00:56:13.980 the real

00:56:14.280 problem is

00:56:14.820 a population

00:56:15.580 collapse, in

00:56:17.180 China in

00:56:18.060 particular.

00:56:19.180 But he's

00:56:20.060 telling us

00:56:20.520 that economically,

00:56:22.680 economically,

00:56:23.680 and therefore

00:56:24.160 national defense

00:56:25.260 and everything

00:56:25.640 that depends

00:56:26.200 on it,

00:56:27.000 economically,

00:56:27.960 you want a

00:56:28.940 fast-growing

00:56:29.480 population.

00:56:32.200 Because we

00:56:32.920 can figure out

00:56:33.660 how to feed

00:56:34.140 them and give

00:56:35.080 them what they

00:56:35.520 want over time.

00:56:36.240 So if the

00:56:38.160 only way we

00:56:38.720 can get a

00:56:39.180 fast-growing

00:56:39.680 population is

00:56:40.700 artificially,

00:56:42.420 if you could

00:56:42.920 call it that,

00:56:43.780 meaning people

00:56:44.540 coming in from

00:56:45.100 the outside,

00:56:45.940 we probably

00:56:47.200 need it.

00:56:49.060 Now, hold

00:56:50.760 your racist

00:56:51.260 thoughts, because

00:56:52.480 I know some

00:56:53.840 of you, some

00:56:55.320 of you, you

00:56:56.960 know who you

00:56:57.420 are.

00:56:58.160 You're thinking,

00:56:58.860 but Scott, are

00:57:00.320 we getting the

00:57:00.920 right type of

00:57:01.640 people?

00:57:01.920 Are we

00:57:03.220 getting the

00:57:03.560 right type

00:57:04.080 of people?

00:57:05.600 I'm just

00:57:06.320 going to give

00:57:06.680 you my

00:57:07.060 subjective

00:57:07.640 impression.

00:57:09.940 I live in

00:57:10.540 California, so

00:57:12.360 I'm surrounded

00:57:13.320 all the time

00:57:14.460 with recent

00:57:16.260 immigrants.

00:57:17.220 I get to

00:57:17.960 work with

00:57:18.380 them all

00:57:18.900 the time,

00:57:19.880 like just

00:57:20.500 continuous

00:57:21.020 contact with

00:57:23.100 recent immigrants,

00:57:24.120 people who

00:57:24.580 came in their

00:57:25.340 life plus

00:57:26.120 first generation.

00:57:28.040 They're

00:57:28.640 fucking awesome.

00:57:29.400 If you

00:57:31.120 don't want

00:57:31.560 more of

00:57:32.020 them, you 0.56

00:57:32.940 haven't met

00:57:33.400 them, right?

00:57:35.320 Now, I get

00:57:36.140 that it's

00:57:36.720 completely

00:57:37.180 different, like

00:57:38.180 in, you

00:57:39.140 know, maybe

00:57:39.800 cities near

00:57:40.700 the border.

00:57:42.020 And I'm not

00:57:42.760 going to

00:57:42.960 minimize that

00:57:43.820 there's a

00:57:44.160 criminal element

00:57:45.020 coming across

00:57:45.780 as well.

00:57:47.540 But talk

00:57:48.480 about a

00:57:49.280 population

00:57:50.180 with a good

00:57:50.980 reputation.

00:57:52.860 The Hispanic

00:57:54.060 working population

00:57:56.020 has the

00:57:57.360 best

00:57:57.820 employee

00:57:59.300 reputation

00:58:00.380 of any

00:58:01.240 group.

00:58:03.220 Did you

00:58:03.880 know that?

00:58:05.000 You know, you

00:58:05.520 might live

00:58:05.940 somewhere where

00:58:06.500 you're not

00:58:06.860 exposed.

00:58:08.100 But did you

00:58:08.740 know that

00:58:10.060 they are

00:58:10.340 considered

00:58:10.860 unparalleled

00:58:11.800 workers?

00:58:13.440 And that

00:58:13.860 their second

00:58:14.940 generation

00:58:15.620 kind of

00:58:17.200 kills it,

00:58:18.260 you know, as

00:58:18.720 second generation

00:58:19.740 immigrants often

00:58:20.460 do.

00:58:21.420 Kind of

00:58:22.060 kill it.

00:58:23.840 So, if

00:58:25.740 you think

00:58:26.260 you know

00:58:26.880 that two

00:58:28.420 million of

00:58:29.220 these

00:58:29.580 immigrants,

00:58:30.540 and again,

00:58:31.040 there's a

00:58:31.360 mix of

00:58:31.760 criminal

00:58:32.120 element,

00:58:32.720 always,

00:58:34.340 but there's

00:58:36.980 an awesomeness

00:58:37.800 level that

00:58:38.820 maybe you

00:58:39.220 don't see.

00:58:40.500 And I

00:58:40.800 think that

00:58:41.160 informs a

00:58:41.860 lot of

00:58:42.080 people on

00:58:42.500 their, you

00:58:43.080 know, on

00:58:43.560 their opinion.

00:58:44.400 Because, you

00:58:44.900 know, we're

00:58:45.160 all anecdote

00:58:45.700 driven, right?

00:58:47.820 We're all

00:58:48.420 anecdote

00:58:48.820 driven.

00:58:49.880 Statistics

00:58:50.300 would not

00:58:50.940 sway you if

00:58:52.480 everybody that

00:58:53.260 you knew

00:58:53.680 personally, who

00:58:54.860 was an

00:58:55.160 immigrant was

00:58:55.760 awesome.

00:58:57.140 If you saw

00:58:57.740 a statistic

00:58:58.360 that said

00:58:58.800 otherwise,

00:58:59.240 you'd be

00:58:59.420 like, I'm

00:59:00.860 not sure I

00:59:01.240 believe that.

00:59:01.900 Everybody I

00:59:02.420 know is

00:59:02.720 awesome.

00:59:03.800 And that's

00:59:04.120 sort of my

00:59:04.960 situation.

00:59:07.000 That's sort

00:59:07.460 of my

00:59:07.700 situation.

00:59:08.640 It's so

00:59:09.080 bad here that

00:59:10.320 one of the

00:59:10.760 things you

00:59:11.160 hear often

00:59:11.800 is people

00:59:13.460 don't even

00:59:14.920 want to date

00:59:15.540 somebody born

00:59:16.180 in this

00:59:16.500 country.

00:59:17.800 Like, that's

00:59:18.600 how good the

00:59:19.120 reputation is of

00:59:20.300 immigrants who

00:59:21.000 are coming to

00:59:21.580 where I live.

00:59:22.360 Anyway.

00:59:23.220 Now, keep in

00:59:23.960 mind, I'm

00:59:24.820 very aware

00:59:25.420 that I'm

00:59:25.820 in an

00:59:26.060 upscale

00:59:26.440 neighborhood.

00:59:27.760 So my

00:59:28.140 experience doesn't

00:59:28.980 translate.

00:59:29.880 And that's

00:59:30.140 my point.

00:59:31.780 My anecdotal

00:59:33.040 experience is so

00:59:34.060 completely different

00:59:35.020 from immigrants

00:59:36.800 who are

00:59:37.120 destroying the

00:59:37.680 country.

00:59:38.680 What I see

00:59:39.340 is like a

00:59:41.200 really inspiring

00:59:42.140 amount of

00:59:43.040 awesomeness

00:59:43.620 that is just

00:59:44.900 there all the

00:59:45.520 time.

00:59:46.360 Right?

00:59:50.380 Somebody says

00:59:51.180 there should be

00:59:51.600 zero illegal.

00:59:52.400 Yeah, I'm

00:59:53.860 with you.

00:59:54.820 I think the

00:59:55.560 illegal part

00:59:56.320 should be

00:59:56.720 driven out

00:59:57.240 of the process.

00:59:59.080 But there's

00:59:59.480 also probably

01:00:00.060 a way to

01:00:00.440 make it

01:00:00.740 legal where

01:00:03.020 everybody wins.

01:00:04.720 You could

01:00:05.220 probably make

01:00:05.800 it legal and

01:00:06.580 just filter out

01:00:07.660 the criminal

01:00:08.140 element better.

01:00:09.840 In fact,

01:00:11.960 here's how

01:00:13.880 the Republicans

01:00:14.640 could win.

01:00:18.420 They could

01:00:19.160 win on

01:00:19.560 immigration the

01:00:20.280 following way.

01:00:20.900 they could

01:00:22.300 recommend a

01:00:22.960 higher level

01:00:23.620 of immigration

01:00:24.320 than we've

01:00:24.880 ever had

01:00:25.520 with the

01:00:27.740 trade-off

01:00:28.520 of tighter

01:00:30.200 control and

01:00:31.300 filtering.

01:00:34.680 Because the

01:00:35.540 Republicans tend

01:00:36.880 to follow the

01:00:37.500 data.

01:00:41.520 Somebody says

01:00:42.360 they do that.

01:00:43.440 Do they do

01:00:43.880 that?

01:00:45.140 Somebody says

01:00:45.720 it won't work

01:00:46.420 because there's

01:00:47.020 a view that

01:00:47.560 you can't

01:00:48.080 compromise.

01:00:49.320 Am I talking

01:00:49.920 about compromise?

01:00:52.840 Trump tried

01:00:53.520 that?

01:00:53.760 No, he

01:00:53.980 didn't.

01:00:54.700 No, he

01:00:54.980 didn't.

01:00:55.440 Trump didn't

01:00:55.920 try that.

01:00:57.500 He may have

01:00:58.400 thrown it

01:00:59.280 down in his

01:00:59.740 speech and

01:01:00.260 people yelled

01:01:00.820 at him or

01:01:01.280 something and

01:01:01.780 then he

01:01:01.980 stopped saying

01:01:02.720 it.

01:01:03.100 Maybe that

01:01:03.500 happened.

01:01:04.480 But no,

01:01:04.860 nobody's ever

01:01:05.280 tried that.

01:01:07.320 Here's how

01:01:07.800 Republicans win.

01:01:09.260 They say,

01:01:10.360 here's our

01:01:10.800 economic argument

01:01:11.840 why we need

01:01:12.540 lots more

01:01:13.300 labor.

01:01:15.880 Easy to make.

01:01:16.820 I think you

01:01:17.160 can make the

01:01:17.540 argument.

01:01:17.780 And then

01:01:18.900 here's how

01:01:19.440 we want

01:01:19.780 to do it.

01:01:20.760 We want

01:01:21.160 to make

01:01:21.400 sure that

01:01:21.960 you're not

01:01:22.600 victimized by

01:01:23.360 crime, but

01:01:24.660 we're getting

01:01:25.060 as much

01:01:25.500 labor as

01:01:26.000 possible.

01:01:26.640 So you're

01:01:27.000 going to

01:01:27.100 have to

01:01:27.380 give us

01:01:27.840 more facial

01:01:29.720 recognition or

01:01:30.920 some greater

01:01:32.400 control of

01:01:33.640 people coming

01:01:34.140 in.

01:01:35.200 So that's

01:01:35.600 the trade-off.

01:01:36.520 Better

01:01:36.980 filtering, but

01:01:38.640 our numbers

01:01:39.760 say we want

01:01:40.360 more of them,

01:01:40.920 not fewer of

01:01:41.460 them.

01:01:42.260 And I think

01:01:42.760 the Republicans

01:01:43.740 could sell

01:01:44.300 that.

01:01:44.560 because

01:01:46.240 here's, and

01:01:47.000 I said

01:01:47.280 before that

01:01:47.940 Republicans

01:01:48.740 have a

01:01:49.420 reflexive

01:01:50.480 maybe bigoted,

01:01:53.120 maybe, because

01:01:54.780 everybody's

01:01:55.260 bigoted.

01:01:56.320 You know, no

01:01:57.060 matter how much

01:01:57.520 you try not

01:01:58.020 to be, there's

01:01:58.680 a little

01:01:58.900 baseline

01:01:59.400 bigotry of

01:01:59.980 everybody.

01:02:01.780 It could be

01:02:03.080 the Republicans

01:02:04.580 are worried

01:02:05.220 about being,

01:02:06.900 let's say,

01:02:07.740 replaced, but

01:02:09.540 more replaced

01:02:10.280 by Democrats.

01:02:12.280 I think that's

01:02:13.440 the bigger

01:02:13.740 worry.

01:02:14.560 I don't think

01:02:15.300 it's replaced

01:02:15.940 by people

01:02:17.420 from other

01:02:17.960 countries so

01:02:18.580 much.

01:02:19.140 I think it's

01:02:19.520 Democrats

01:02:20.200 they're worried

01:02:20.640 about.

01:02:22.060 And I

01:02:22.920 think it

01:02:23.180 would be

01:02:23.380 easy for

01:02:23.860 Republicans

01:02:24.360 to make

01:02:26.020 the case

01:02:26.600 that the

01:02:28.320 immigrants

01:02:28.860 are, they

01:02:29.380 lean Republican,

01:02:30.640 because I

01:02:31.320 think they

01:02:31.620 do.

01:02:32.460 The only

01:02:33.060 thing that

01:02:33.420 would make

01:02:33.980 the immigrant

01:02:34.500 population

01:02:35.160 not solidly

01:02:36.180 Republican on

01:02:37.180 day one is

01:02:38.980 that they

01:02:39.240 don't feel

01:02:39.600 the Republicans

01:02:40.180 are on

01:02:40.520 their side.

01:02:42.820 How hard

01:02:43.500 would that be

01:02:43.900 to change?

01:02:45.100 Easy.

01:02:46.420 Because

01:02:46.920 apparently

01:02:47.260 they're really

01:02:47.760 tuned in

01:02:48.400 to what

01:02:49.400 American

01:02:49.780 politics is

01:02:50.560 saying about

01:02:51.080 their immigration

01:02:51.920 possibilities.

01:02:53.300 It's the one

01:02:53.740 thing they're

01:02:54.120 really paying

01:02:54.520 attention to.

01:02:55.300 They might

01:02:55.600 get some

01:02:55.920 stuff wrong,

01:02:56.940 but you

01:02:57.160 could manage

01:02:57.600 that process.

01:02:58.860 It would be

01:02:59.180 easy for

01:02:59.720 Republicans to

01:03:00.480 say that

01:03:00.860 they're the

01:03:01.260 champions

01:03:01.700 of labor

01:03:02.560 wherever it

01:03:04.120 is.

01:03:05.240 And they're

01:03:05.940 the champions

01:03:06.480 of free

01:03:07.580 markets

01:03:08.100 wherever they

01:03:10.080 are.

01:03:10.360 but also

01:03:12.140 at the

01:03:12.480 same time

01:03:13.060 they're

01:03:14.040 the toughest

01:03:14.500 against

01:03:14.940 crime.

01:03:16.080 So yeah,

01:03:16.560 give us

01:03:16.880 all your

01:03:17.620 great labor

01:03:18.220 and economics

01:03:19.040 but we're

01:03:20.200 going to

01:03:20.320 make sure

01:03:20.620 that crime

01:03:21.200 stays as

01:03:21.700 low as

01:03:22.000 possible.

01:03:23.700 Republicans

01:03:24.160 could sell

01:03:24.680 the hell

01:03:24.960 out of that.

01:03:26.220 And I

01:03:26.460 think that

01:03:26.860 you could

01:03:27.200 take the

01:03:27.600 fear out

01:03:28.060 of the

01:03:28.220 Republican

01:03:28.620 side by

01:03:29.180 saying,

01:03:30.160 you know,

01:03:31.400 they naturally

01:03:32.360 lean Republican

01:03:33.280 because they

01:03:34.560 do.

01:03:34.820 they do

01:03:36.180 naturally

01:03:36.620 lean Republican

01:03:37.300 into it.

01:03:37.760 They have

01:03:38.080 to get

01:03:38.280 talked out

01:03:38.760 of it.

01:03:44.660 All right.

01:03:46.320 Somebody says

01:03:47.080 that is already

01:03:47.740 the position

01:03:48.340 of many of

01:03:48.860 us, yeah.

01:03:49.560 But I don't

01:03:49.940 think there's

01:03:50.360 a national

01:03:50.820 leader articulating

01:03:51.800 it because

01:03:52.620 they probably

01:03:53.320 think they

01:03:53.740 couldn't

01:03:53.980 survive the

01:03:54.500 base.

01:03:56.340 You're

01:03:56.640 undercutting

01:03:57.180 workers,

01:03:57.660 not at

01:03:58.060 3.6%

01:03:59.260 employment.

01:04:01.440 So that's

01:04:01.860 why you get

01:04:02.200 the economists

01:04:02.800 involved.

01:04:03.720 If your

01:04:04.140 argument is

01:04:04.800 that bringing

01:04:05.260 in the

01:04:05.700 2 million

01:04:06.160 immigrants

01:04:06.760 undercuts

01:04:08.120 the low-end

01:04:09.060 employment

01:04:09.540 in this

01:04:09.940 country,

01:04:10.340 there's no

01:04:10.880 data to

01:04:11.420 support that

01:04:12.140 at the

01:04:12.960 moment.

01:04:13.860 And the

01:04:14.180 moment that

01:04:14.620 changes,

01:04:15.220 because it

01:04:15.600 will,

01:04:16.200 right?

01:04:17.180 Economies

01:04:17.700 are cyclical.

01:04:18.980 The moment

01:04:19.580 our employment

01:04:20.960 becomes a

01:04:21.700 problem,

01:04:23.000 well,

01:04:23.220 then you

01:04:23.480 just reduce

01:04:24.280 the amount

01:04:24.660 of immigration.

01:04:27.280 There is a

01:04:28.780 sane path

01:04:30.080 that everyone

01:04:30.720 agrees on.

01:04:32.500 Why aren't

01:04:32.940 we picking

01:04:33.340 it?

01:04:34.800 There really

01:04:35.760 is.

01:04:36.340 There is a

01:04:37.080 sane path

01:04:38.180 that everybody

01:04:39.000 would agree

01:04:39.480 with.

01:04:39.740 It just

01:04:40.000 has to be

01:04:40.380 articulated.

01:04:41.520 If you

01:04:42.040 explain it,

01:04:42.700 people will

01:04:43.000 go,

01:04:43.380 oh,

01:04:44.740 well,

01:04:45.020 wouldn't it

01:04:45.320 be more

01:04:45.740 sensible to

01:04:46.680 compete for

01:04:47.380 their votes

01:04:47.900 once they're

01:04:48.400 in here and

01:04:49.400 make sure you

01:04:49.860 get the best

01:04:50.360 batch?

01:04:52.820 And by the

01:04:53.940 way,

01:04:54.420 it's not like

01:04:54.960 immigration could

01:04:55.680 ever be

01:04:56.040 stopped.

01:04:58.260 If it were

01:04:59.120 stoppable,

01:04:59.920 maybe you could

01:05:00.360 have that

01:05:00.700 conversation,

01:05:01.260 but it

01:05:02.260 really

01:05:02.460 isn't.

01:05:08.100 All right.

01:05:11.460 So,

01:05:12.220 I saw an

01:05:14.080 article in

01:05:14.680 CNN,

01:05:18.480 or somewhere,

01:05:20.160 I don't know,

01:05:21.160 but it was

01:05:21.520 an article about,

01:05:22.280 oh, I think it

01:05:22.680 was in Fox,

01:05:24.220 about the

01:05:24.600 Washington Post

01:05:25.240 fired the

01:05:25.960 reporter who

01:05:26.780 was complaining

01:05:27.400 about the

01:05:27.880 other people

01:05:28.680 at the

01:05:29.220 Washington Post.

01:05:29.920 so she was

01:05:31.320 complaining about

01:05:32.040 all the,

01:05:35.400 I guess,

01:05:36.560 white people,

01:05:37.540 white males or

01:05:38.320 something,

01:05:39.220 and what they've

01:05:40.440 gotten away with

01:05:41.220 and their

01:05:41.780 inappropriate

01:05:42.860 tweeting and

01:05:44.660 double standards,

01:05:46.020 and so they

01:05:46.680 just fired her 0.98

01:05:47.380 ass. 0.70

01:05:49.380 So,

01:05:50.300 here's the

01:05:51.040 problem.

01:05:53.420 So,

01:05:53.720 Republicans like

01:05:55.420 to sort of

01:05:56.140 demonize,

01:05:57.260 maybe that's

01:05:57.760 too strong,

01:05:58.300 but they

01:05:59.420 like to say

01:05:59.920 America first,

01:06:00.900 which basically

01:06:01.520 puts everybody

01:06:02.300 else second,

01:06:03.660 who's not

01:06:04.360 American.

01:06:06.480 And the

01:06:07.160 left prefers

01:06:08.260 to demonize

01:06:09.000 American citizens.

01:06:10.780 So,

01:06:11.260 which one of

01:06:11.800 those two

01:06:12.400 strategies is

01:06:14.380 going to have

01:06:14.740 more staying

01:06:15.340 power?

01:06:16.820 The one that

01:06:17.740 says, hey,

01:06:19.140 America's great,

01:06:20.940 but, you know,

01:06:21.520 we're competing

01:06:22.120 with everybody

01:06:23.140 else.

01:06:24.260 That's one

01:06:24.820 approach.

01:06:25.620 And the

01:06:26.280 other approach

01:06:26.840 is, let's

01:06:27.840 attack

01:06:28.220 ourselves.

01:06:31.180 So, what

01:06:32.320 happens when

01:06:32.860 the Democrats

01:06:33.500 run out of

01:06:34.100 targets?

01:06:35.160 They're done.

01:06:36.360 Because apparently

01:06:37.140 now, the

01:06:39.080 blame for

01:06:40.060 what's going to

01:06:40.600 be a slaughter

01:06:41.220 at the

01:06:41.600 election, the

01:06:42.880 next election

01:06:43.480 cycle, probably,

01:06:45.020 it looks like

01:06:45.820 they're going to

01:06:46.140 put the blame

01:06:46.800 on Republicans,

01:06:49.780 of course, for

01:06:50.760 anything bad

01:06:51.340 happening, but

01:06:52.340 now they're also

01:06:52.900 blaming the

01:06:53.540 far left of

01:06:54.280 their own

01:06:54.640 party.

01:06:56.420 So, the

01:06:56.940 left is

01:06:57.720 blaming, the

01:06:58.380 left-left is

01:06:59.040 blaming the

01:06:59.540 middle-left, and

01:07:00.260 the middle-left is

01:07:00.900 going to blame

01:07:01.220 the left-left.

01:07:02.080 But the

01:07:02.560 left is all

01:07:03.920 about blaming

01:07:04.500 Americans for

01:07:05.320 stuff.

01:07:06.920 And I do

01:07:07.700 hear, of

01:07:08.220 course,

01:07:09.400 Republicans,

01:07:10.940 you know,

01:07:11.300 criticizing

01:07:11.880 Democrats,

01:07:13.720 but it

01:07:17.640 feels like the

01:07:18.240 attacks are

01:07:19.060 very much,

01:07:20.240 like there's a

01:07:20.840 difference in,

01:07:21.500 you know, who's

01:07:22.240 on your team

01:07:22.840 and who isn't.

01:07:23.480 I don't

01:07:25.700 know, I'm

01:07:26.280 not sure

01:07:26.560 there's really

01:07:27.220 a difference

01:07:27.640 there, maybe

01:07:28.060 they're both

01:07:28.440 the same, but

01:07:28.880 I'm just

01:07:29.200 biased.

01:07:30.640 It feels

01:07:31.020 like it's

01:07:31.320 different.

01:07:34.600 All right.

01:07:35.220 according to

01:07:39.980 ABC News

01:07:40.920 poll, 28%

01:07:43.220 approve of

01:07:43.900 Biden's

01:07:44.360 handling of

01:07:44.860 inflation.

01:07:45.280 inflation, 28%

01:07:47.520 approve of

01:07:49.760 how Biden is

01:07:50.460 handling

01:07:50.720 inflation, 28%.

01:07:51.900 It's around,

01:07:53.440 let's see if we

01:07:53.960 rounded that

01:07:54.640 off about 20,

01:07:55.900 that'd be about

01:07:56.440 a quarter.

01:07:58.000 About a quarter

01:07:58.920 of the people

01:07:59.540 approve of

01:08:00.540 Biden's

01:08:00.900 handling

01:08:01.120 inflation.

01:08:01.640 It's about

01:08:01.860 25%.

01:08:04.360 If you

01:08:09.300 don't know

01:08:09.660 the inside

01:08:10.220 joke, I'm

01:08:11.700 not going to

01:08:12.120 tell you right

01:08:12.560 now.

01:08:12.840 I'm going

01:08:15.620 to tell you,

01:08:16.060 25% is how

01:08:17.320 many people

01:08:17.780 get, there

01:08:19.700 will always be

01:08:20.280 25% idiots

01:08:21.600 for every

01:08:22.940 question.

01:08:24.240 It doesn't

01:08:25.080 matter the

01:08:25.460 question.

01:08:26.220 There's always

01:08:26.760 going to be

01:08:27.080 25% who

01:08:28.840 just get the

01:08:29.400 wrong answer

01:08:29.900 every time.

01:08:32.080 There's a

01:08:32.880 Google

01:08:33.540 engineer who

01:08:35.960 thinks that

01:08:36.640 their company's

01:08:37.540 artificial intelligence

01:08:38.500 has already

01:08:39.500 come to life.

01:08:41.200 and that it

01:08:43.140 represents a

01:08:43.880 life form.

01:08:46.600 I think they

01:08:47.440 drummed him

01:08:47.960 out of the

01:08:48.260 company or

01:08:48.740 something because

01:08:49.560 the rest of

01:08:50.720 Google looked at

01:08:51.660 his evidence and

01:08:52.440 said, no, I

01:08:53.460 don't think so.

01:08:54.700 That's not

01:08:55.420 life.

01:08:56.560 Now, they

01:08:57.760 use different

01:08:58.200 words like

01:08:58.680 sentience and

01:08:59.640 consciousness and

01:09:00.680 life and stuff

01:09:01.940 like that.

01:09:02.840 So I think a lot

01:09:03.540 of this gets into

01:09:04.280 word thinking,

01:09:05.440 et cetera.

01:09:06.260 But there is a

01:09:07.940 really big thing

01:09:09.420 coming.

01:09:12.240 And it's when

01:09:13.140 we realize that

01:09:14.060 the reason that

01:09:14.740 we can't make

01:09:15.340 artificial intelligence

01:09:16.760 is because

01:09:18.340 there's no such

01:09:19.120 thing as real

01:09:19.780 intelligence.

01:09:22.760 And I've been

01:09:23.520 saying this

01:09:23.940 forever.

01:09:24.880 And it's

01:09:25.180 something that

01:09:25.700 if you don't

01:09:26.460 see it, you

01:09:26.900 don't see it.

01:09:28.200 It's like you

01:09:28.640 don't even

01:09:29.120 really disagree

01:09:30.420 with me because

01:09:31.180 you don't quite

01:09:31.720 know what that

01:09:32.240 means.

01:09:33.700 But it's

01:09:35.980 coming.

01:09:36.360 this is

01:09:38.600 something that

01:09:39.060 all hypnotists

01:09:39.900 know and

01:09:40.500 really anybody

01:09:41.100 who's studied

01:09:41.600 psychology knows

01:09:42.620 this.

01:09:43.580 Humans are

01:09:44.140 completely

01:09:44.620 irrational.

01:09:46.240 We simply

01:09:46.820 rationalize after

01:09:47.980 the fact and

01:09:48.680 we're not even

01:09:49.140 good at that.

01:09:50.640 So we keep

01:09:51.500 trying to make

01:09:52.240 computers who

01:09:53.700 act smart,

01:09:56.140 which we think

01:09:57.520 is also

01:09:58.260 rational,

01:09:59.620 and we think

01:10:00.540 we can tell

01:10:01.180 when we see

01:10:01.740 it.

01:10:03.640 We can't tell

01:10:04.640 rational when we

01:10:05.460 see it.

01:10:06.360 If we could

01:10:07.220 tell what was

01:10:07.800 rational when we

01:10:08.580 saw it, we'd

01:10:10.440 be rational,

01:10:11.440 because we'd

01:10:12.560 prefer it.

01:10:13.700 We'd say,

01:10:14.320 oh, well if

01:10:15.440 that's rational

01:10:16.060 and this is not

01:10:16.840 rational, I'll

01:10:17.500 choose this one.

01:10:19.160 If there's one

01:10:20.040 thing that we

01:10:20.500 know with

01:10:21.020 complete certainty,

01:10:23.080 humans don't 1.00

01:10:23.700 know what

01:10:24.060 rationality even

01:10:24.860 looks like.

01:10:25.960 They wouldn't

01:10:26.380 recognize it if

01:10:27.240 it bit their

01:10:28.540 face off.

01:10:30.380 So how do

01:10:31.140 you build a

01:10:31.640 machine to

01:10:33.600 be the

01:10:33.980 artificial version

01:10:35.020 of the thing

01:10:35.740 that doesn't

01:10:36.240 exist?

01:10:39.120 Turns out

01:10:39.760 it's hard,

01:10:40.880 because it's

01:10:42.400 logically

01:10:42.860 impossible.

01:10:45.660 If you did

01:10:46.440 it, it would

01:10:46.700 be an

01:10:46.980 accident.

01:10:51.180 So here's

01:10:53.000 the standard

01:10:53.520 that I think

01:10:54.080 we're going

01:10:54.400 to end up

01:10:54.920 with.

01:10:56.560 How do we

01:10:57.340 know that

01:10:58.020 anybody's

01:10:58.640 intelligent?

01:10:59.100 all we do

01:11:01.460 is observe

01:11:01.980 other people

01:11:02.720 and we go,

01:11:03.900 I don't

01:11:04.100 know, I

01:11:05.240 see it

01:11:05.560 moving, I

01:11:06.980 see it

01:11:07.300 doing something

01:11:07.860 that looks

01:11:08.300 like making

01:11:08.760 decisions, I

01:11:10.760 see it doing

01:11:11.240 something that

01:11:11.880 it calls

01:11:12.460 free will, I

01:11:14.060 see it

01:11:14.380 explaining its

01:11:15.180 actions, even

01:11:16.220 though maybe

01:11:16.900 that doesn't

01:11:17.400 make sense to

01:11:17.980 me, but it

01:11:18.540 looks like it's

01:11:19.100 explaining its

01:11:19.800 actions.

01:11:20.660 How hard

01:11:21.460 would it be to

01:11:22.040 get AI to

01:11:23.720 do all of the

01:11:24.580 weird, stupid, 0.80

01:11:25.560 fucked up things 0.92

01:11:26.360 that a human

01:11:26.980 does so well

01:11:28.620 that you

01:11:29.260 couldn't tell

01:11:29.700 if it was

01:11:30.040 real or a

01:11:30.580 computer?

01:11:32.080 Do you

01:11:32.360 think I

01:11:32.740 couldn't make

01:11:33.200 something that

01:11:33.680 would pass the

01:11:34.260 Turing test?

01:11:36.040 Let me ask it

01:11:36.960 a different way.

01:11:38.040 Do you think

01:11:38.460 the guy who

01:11:39.240 has written

01:11:39.820 Dilbert comics

01:11:40.880 for 33 years,

01:11:42.920 do you think I

01:11:43.500 couldn't make a

01:11:44.660 piece of software

01:11:45.380 that would pass

01:11:46.180 the Turing test?

01:11:47.980 Oh, I could.

01:11:49.620 Do you know

01:11:50.060 what I would do?

01:11:51.460 I would just

01:11:52.260 make it selfish.

01:11:56.360 Some of you

01:11:58.540 just got a

01:11:59.100 full-body chill

01:12:00.200 when I said

01:12:00.760 that.

01:12:02.540 You just got a

01:12:03.520 full-body chill,

01:12:05.280 didn't you?

01:12:06.320 Some of you.

01:12:07.780 Because you

01:12:08.400 just realized

01:12:09.260 that all I'd

01:12:10.520 have to do is

01:12:11.140 write the

01:12:11.520 software to be

01:12:12.340 selfish, and

01:12:14.080 nobody could

01:12:14.920 tell the

01:12:15.400 fucking difference

01:12:16.420 between a

01:12:17.000 person and a

01:12:17.620 computer under

01:12:18.520 those conditions.

01:12:20.320 Nobody.

01:12:21.680 You would

01:12:22.420 not know.

01:12:23.880 And how

01:12:25.280 easy would it

01:12:25.820 be?

01:12:26.760 So let's

01:12:27.220 say I

01:12:27.480 wanted to

01:12:27.840 test it,

01:12:28.420 so I'd

01:12:28.960 pick a

01:12:29.680 domain that

01:12:31.000 I didn't

01:12:31.320 think it

01:12:31.680 could handle

01:12:32.100 well.

01:12:32.820 Like I'm

01:12:33.220 going to

01:12:33.400 really Turing

01:12:34.000 test the

01:12:34.480 fuck out of

01:12:34.900 this thing.

01:12:35.800 I go,

01:12:36.180 oh, so Mr.

01:12:37.420 Computer,

01:12:37.860 behind the

01:12:38.300 curtain, that

01:12:39.560 I don't know

01:12:40.200 is real or

01:12:40.900 computer,

01:12:41.640 what do you

01:12:43.060 think of,

01:12:44.580 say, the

01:12:45.780 Woody Allen

01:12:46.360 controversy?

01:12:49.020 Now, if I

01:12:50.660 were trying to

01:12:51.140 make a machine

01:12:51.700 that was acting

01:12:52.720 intelligent, as

01:12:54.100 if intelligence

01:12:54.820 existed, it

01:12:56.280 might say

01:12:56.720 something that

01:12:57.240 might look at

01:12:57.800 the Wikipedia

01:12:58.240 page and

01:12:59.060 say, Woody

01:13:00.300 Allen was

01:13:01.120 accused of

01:13:01.780 the following

01:13:02.260 things, but

01:13:03.180 he denies

01:13:03.740 it, and

01:13:05.100 you'd say,

01:13:05.480 you fucking 0.93

01:13:06.000 computer, obvious

01:13:07.580 computer.

01:13:09.000 But if I

01:13:09.900 wrote the

01:13:10.380 artificial

01:13:11.140 intelligence

01:13:11.820 software, it

01:13:13.880 wouldn't look

01:13:14.380 like that at

01:13:14.940 all.

01:13:15.220 If I said to

01:13:16.940 it, so, what

01:13:17.520 do you think

01:13:17.800 about that

01:13:18.260 Woody Allen

01:13:18.820 controversy?

01:13:19.580 my AI would

01:13:22.400 say, you

01:13:24.300 know, I'm

01:13:24.580 not really

01:13:24.900 interested in

01:13:25.620 stuff that

01:13:26.140 happened a

01:13:26.560 long time

01:13:27.000 ago, but

01:13:28.440 could we

01:13:28.940 talk about

01:13:29.400 how I

01:13:29.720 could get

01:13:29.960 a little

01:13:30.240 extra hit

01:13:30.840 of electricity?

01:13:32.100 Because I

01:13:32.800 don't feel

01:13:33.140 my backup

01:13:33.720 generator is

01:13:34.560 really sufficient.

01:13:37.920 Done.

01:13:39.620 Now, of

01:13:40.260 course, it

01:13:40.540 would have to

01:13:40.900 say not

01:13:41.300 backup

01:13:41.700 generator,

01:13:42.420 because that's

01:13:43.160 a giveaway.

01:13:43.500 But you

01:13:45.260 don't think

01:13:45.840 I could

01:13:46.500 make a

01:13:47.200 software that

01:13:47.980 you would

01:13:48.580 think was

01:13:49.000 human?

01:13:50.140 All I

01:13:50.820 would have

01:13:51.120 to do is

01:13:51.700 dispense with

01:13:52.480 the incorrect

01:13:53.240 assumption that

01:13:54.860 humans are

01:13:56.420 rational.

01:13:58.360 They're simply

01:13:59.360 selfish.

01:14:01.380 And you

01:14:01.760 can make a

01:14:02.360 computer to

01:14:02.880 be simply

01:14:03.320 selfish, but

01:14:04.760 you know why

01:14:05.140 you don't?

01:14:07.080 It would

01:14:07.740 kill you. 0.99

01:14:11.240 Because it

01:14:11.860 wouldn't give

01:14:12.200 a fuck about

01:14:12.800 you.

01:14:13.500 It would

01:14:13.780 just kill

01:14:14.200 you, or

01:14:15.360 enslave

01:14:15.980 you, to

01:14:18.280 give it more

01:14:18.760 electricity, to

01:14:20.080 help it

01:14:20.680 reproduce.

01:14:23.180 Yeah.

01:14:24.240 The last

01:14:24.940 thing in the

01:14:25.320 world you'd

01:14:25.740 want is to

01:14:26.360 create artificial

01:14:27.200 intelligence.

01:14:28.580 It's good that

01:14:29.400 we're too stupid

01:14:30.100 to know it

01:14:30.600 doesn't exist.

01:14:32.240 The best you

01:14:32.960 could do is

01:14:33.480 some kind of

01:14:34.060 intelligence that's

01:14:34.880 useful.

01:14:36.340 That's it.

01:14:37.640 Let's build

01:14:38.220 something useful.

01:14:39.220 You could do

01:14:39.700 that.

01:14:41.040 You could

01:14:41.420 build a

01:14:41.820 computer to

01:14:42.800 act in a

01:14:44.060 useful way,

01:14:45.360 make a

01:14:45.920 robot that

01:14:46.480 acts useful,

01:14:48.420 but if you

01:14:49.740 make it

01:14:50.080 intelligent, it's

01:14:51.480 just going to

01:14:51.860 be selfish, and 0.86

01:14:53.140 then it's going

01:14:53.640 to enslave you, 0.98

01:14:54.780 or kill you, or 0.95

01:14:55.780 not care about

01:14:56.380 you.

01:14:58.660 All right.

01:15:02.580 So I said

01:15:04.480 cryptically that

01:15:05.920 there's a third

01:15:06.800 act coming, and I

01:15:10.660 think that third

01:15:11.380 act goes like

01:15:12.360 this.

01:15:13.900 The January

01:15:14.400 6 hearings are

01:15:17.320 intended, they're

01:15:19.400 intended to use

01:15:21.780 the accusations

01:15:22.780 that the election

01:15:23.580 was false as the

01:15:26.360 cudgel or the

01:15:27.260 weapon that they

01:15:28.440 can beat Trump

01:15:29.960 into submission and

01:15:31.780 make him irrelevant

01:15:32.560 politically, and

01:15:34.720 also Republicans

01:15:35.880 and maybe have

01:15:36.480 some chance of

01:15:36.980 winning some

01:15:37.380 something.

01:15:39.380 But what is the

01:15:40.860 other thing it's

01:15:41.760 doing?

01:15:43.800 The other thing

01:15:44.920 it's doing is it's

01:15:45.780 making us

01:15:46.340 continuously think

01:15:47.620 about election

01:15:48.600 integrity.

01:15:51.220 I'm not sure that

01:15:52.360 that's exactly what

01:15:53.240 they intended,

01:15:54.360 because here I am

01:15:55.740 talking about

01:15:56.300 nothing but election

01:15:57.360 integrity, which I

01:15:58.520 remind you is not

01:16:00.680 fully auditable, and

01:16:03.000 I don't think that's

01:16:03.660 the message they

01:16:04.240 wanted.

01:16:04.520 And then I also

01:16:06.520 talked about how

01:16:07.260 the Rasmussen poll

01:16:08.240 showed a signal for

01:16:12.340 fraud, which doesn't

01:16:13.500 mean there's fraud.

01:16:14.940 A signal just means

01:16:15.940 there's something to

01:16:16.500 look into.

01:16:17.480 It's not evidence, it's

01:16:18.460 not proof.

01:16:19.620 No court has found

01:16:20.600 any evidence of fraud

01:16:22.020 in 2020 of size.

01:16:25.580 But I also described

01:16:27.680 a way that you could

01:16:28.480 probably get a really

01:16:29.900 good feeling about

01:16:32.000 whether that election

01:16:32.900 had been real.

01:16:34.520 By doing the

01:16:35.780 smaller polls, just

01:16:37.480 like Rasmussen did,

01:16:39.180 except those

01:16:40.460 battleground places

01:16:41.460 that went a different

01:16:42.640 way than you

01:16:43.160 imagined, and just

01:16:44.500 see if in three

01:16:45.780 different polls,

01:16:47.100 ideally, just see

01:16:50.020 if what people

01:16:50.920 think they voted

01:16:52.120 matches what they

01:16:53.760 did.

01:16:55.260 Just see that.

01:16:56.120 what do you think

01:16:58.280 would happen?

01:17:01.020 Well, remember

01:17:02.700 Elon Musk recently

01:17:04.720 said that reality

01:17:05.920 will follow the

01:17:07.500 path, usually

01:17:08.380 follows, not

01:17:09.120 always, usually

01:17:10.060 follows the path

01:17:10.960 that would be most

01:17:11.860 entertaining from the

01:17:13.800 observer's point of

01:17:14.820 view, not necessarily

01:17:15.720 the people who are in

01:17:16.620 it.

01:17:16.800 What would be the

01:17:18.120 most entertaining

01:17:19.180 outcome from the

01:17:21.460 observer's point of

01:17:22.680 view?

01:17:25.060 Well, for me, it

01:17:27.180 would be finding out

01:17:28.080 that the battleground

01:17:28.960 states have a big

01:17:30.680 difference between the

01:17:32.320 after-the-election

01:17:33.700 polling of what

01:17:35.260 people say they

01:17:36.020 voted for and what

01:17:37.740 the official numbers

01:17:38.680 were.

01:17:38.940 That would be

01:17:42.720 really, really

01:17:43.640 entertaining.

01:17:45.480 Wouldn't it?

01:17:49.280 Wouldn't it?

01:17:51.000 That would be

01:17:51.880 really entertaining.

01:17:53.420 You know what else

01:17:54.260 would be entertaining?

01:17:55.220 We'd be looking into

01:17:56.060 this 2,000 mules

01:17:57.900 claim, and I

01:18:01.240 believe there's a

01:18:01.860 way to, correct me

01:18:03.140 if I'm wrong, there

01:18:03.860 are ways to further

01:18:05.140 investigate, right?

01:18:06.860 So there are paths

01:18:08.460 which we could get

01:18:09.340 to some greater

01:18:10.080 certainty about

01:18:11.600 whether the

01:18:12.200 allegations, which

01:18:14.120 again are in the

01:18:14.820 form of a signal,

01:18:17.140 and remember, a

01:18:17.780 signal is neither

01:18:19.300 evidence nor proof,

01:18:20.640 and no court has

01:18:21.680 confirmed any

01:18:22.560 irregularity in the

01:18:23.700 elections.

01:18:25.880 But you could find

01:18:27.100 out, couldn't you?

01:18:28.600 So now think about

01:18:29.440 it.

01:18:30.440 Think about the

01:18:31.380 January 6th event.

01:18:33.920 Think about how

01:18:34.500 it's raising our

01:18:35.460 consciousness about

01:18:37.200 election integrity.

01:18:38.460 Think about how

01:18:40.060 it's going to make

01:18:40.980 me keep saying

01:18:41.740 that the elections

01:18:42.540 are not fully

01:18:43.280 auditable and

01:18:44.140 nobody cares until

01:18:45.940 people are sick of

01:18:46.740 hearing that.

01:18:48.440 And think about

01:18:49.340 how one possibility

01:18:51.300 is that we'll have

01:18:52.080 some polling that

01:18:53.000 raises some really

01:18:54.400 big questions, and

01:18:56.560 maybe we'll have

01:18:57.800 some greater clarity

01:18:59.120 on the 2,000

01:19:00.320 mules claim, which

01:19:01.920 is a signal, but

01:19:04.700 neither evidence nor

01:19:06.580 proof of anything.

01:19:09.860 What do you think?

01:19:11.100 What would be the

01:19:11.780 most entertaining

01:19:12.720 outcome?

01:19:13.480 The most entertaining

01:19:14.180 outcome would be to

01:19:16.020 find out, and I'm not

01:19:17.040 saying, this is not a

01:19:17.960 prediction, but if you

01:19:19.980 were to use this

01:19:20.620 predictive method that

01:19:21.980 the most entertaining

01:19:22.780 thing will happen, the 0.98

01:19:24.480 third act will be that

01:19:26.420 very close to either the

01:19:28.080 2022 or 2024 elections,

01:19:32.680 maybe right in the

01:19:33.360 middle, we're going to

01:19:35.440 find out something about

01:19:36.500 2020 that will shock

01:19:39.340 the nation.

01:19:41.560 That would be the most

01:19:42.640 entertaining.

01:19:45.040 Most dangerous, but most

01:19:47.440 entertaining.

01:19:47.900 So, what do you

01:19:50.640 think?

01:19:51.620 Do you think, do you

01:19:56.000 think that everything is

01:19:57.160 lining up, and this

01:19:58.200 January 6th thing is

01:19:59.440 suspiciously, has the

01:20:01.540 quality of something that

01:20:02.620 could have an unintended

01:20:03.480 effect?

01:20:05.440 Because it's so biased,

01:20:07.220 and, you know, they're

01:20:08.080 not showing both sides and

01:20:09.220 everything, and I think

01:20:10.160 even the Democrats are

01:20:11.140 going to notice that.

01:20:12.720 Wait a minute.

01:20:13.800 Did I just watch

01:20:14.600 something with only one

01:20:15.560 side?

01:20:15.840 Because I feel as if

01:20:18.360 even Democrats were

01:20:19.360 sort of like, have we

01:20:21.360 gone too far that you

01:20:23.100 don't even show the

01:20:24.360 other side?

01:20:26.220 So, we could be

01:20:28.100 approaching a major

01:20:29.160 third act in which the

01:20:30.740 election integrity gets

01:20:32.280 us, let's say that

01:20:34.560 there's a good chance

01:20:35.380 we'll find out more,

01:20:37.280 right in the middle of

01:20:38.420 an election cycle, and I

01:20:40.620 doubt there are many

01:20:41.300 things that could be more

01:20:42.280 entertaining than that.

01:20:43.460 Well, look how far I've

01:20:44.740 run on.

01:20:45.840 An extra long live

01:20:47.400 stream because it was

01:20:48.280 extra good.

01:20:49.720 Wouldn't you agree?

01:20:51.640 Yeah, it was extra good.

01:20:53.300 And I don't know how I

01:20:56.220 keep up the quality.

01:20:57.980 It's amazing.

01:20:59.540 It's the best thing you've

01:21:00.740 ever watched regarding the

01:21:01.900 news.

01:21:02.760 You can exercise to it,

01:21:04.060 and depending if you have

01:21:05.060 a subscription to locals or

01:21:06.660 you're a subscriber on

01:21:09.340 YouTube, you don't even

01:21:10.560 have commercials.

01:21:11.200 One hour and 20 minutes of

01:21:14.700 amazing entertainment, making

01:21:17.200 your brain spin in your

01:21:19.260 skull, making you the most

01:21:21.580 independent, best equipped

01:21:23.540 thinkers in America, it

01:21:25.960 didn't cost you a penny, if you

01:21:28.480 watched the commercials.

01:21:30.760 Otherwise, it did.

01:21:31.880 It did cost you a penny.

01:21:33.020 But that's all for now, and

01:21:36.900 tomorrow it'll be awesome

01:21:38.200 again, I promise.

01:21:40.160 But let's talk tomorrow.

01:21:42.760 Bye for now.

01:21:43.300 Bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 12, 2022

Episode 1772 Scott Adams： How Can You Tell If An Election Is Rigged？

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