Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1780 Scott Adams： The News Is Crazy Today. Come Enjoy The Absurdity With A Beverage

00:00:00.000 All right, it's time to light this candle and then blow it out, because you've come

00:00:11.380 to the right place at the right time.

00:00:13.300 That's right.

00:00:14.300 Congratulations.

00:00:15.840 And I think this marks the beginning of something amazing for you, the beginning of the golden

00:00:23.160 age.

00:00:24.240 Does it look like it?

00:00:25.680 I'll give you that.

00:00:27.120 But wow, is it going to take off pretty soon?

00:00:30.540 It's coming.

00:00:32.260 And ladies and gentlemen, would you like to get ready for it in the most appropriate

00:00:36.700 way?

00:00:37.060 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and all you need is a cupper mug or a glass, a tankard

00:00:41.580 chalzer stein, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:46.560 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:49.540 I like coffee.

00:00:51.340 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:54.920 It's the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:57.980 It's the oxytocin hit that you needed.

00:01:03.240 And it's happening now.

00:01:04.680 Go.

00:01:04.860 Oh, did I see somebody say skip the sip?

00:01:15.480 We have a sip denier.

00:01:17.600 Sip denier.

00:01:18.280 Whoop, whoop, whoop.

00:01:23.220 You will not escape.

00:01:25.160 Everybody.

00:01:26.360 Circle and destroy.

00:01:28.340 No, we're just kidding.

00:01:30.140 You can be a conscientious objector to the Simultaneous Sip.

00:01:35.420 Because you know, the Simultaneous Sip is designed to be manipulative.

00:01:40.900 And I tell you that right up front.

00:01:44.560 It's designed to be manipulative.

00:01:47.780 It manipulates you into enjoying yourself.

00:01:52.760 With your permission.

00:01:55.080 So if you like enjoying yourself, doing the Simultaneous Sip will create a little trigger

00:02:00.700 to tweak your dopamine and maybe even your oxytocin.

00:02:05.500 So it actually is a utility thing.

00:02:08.880 If you skip it, what you're skipping is your own pleasure.

00:02:13.580 And I feel sorry for you, but it's a free world.

00:02:18.120 Have you noticed that everything's broken?

00:02:21.420 Well, that's because we're going to have to destroy everything to rebuild into the golden age.

00:02:26.940 But have you noticed that nothing has ever been worse than airline travel?

00:02:30.700 Why is airline travel?

00:02:34.920 I say this all the time, but I'm continuously amazed.

00:02:39.080 It's so consistent.

00:02:40.820 That airline travel is the only thing that gets worse all the time.

00:02:45.780 It started pretty good in the 60s.

00:02:48.600 And then just got worse.

00:02:50.420 Every day.

00:02:51.840 And now, some 19,000 flights were canceled or delayed since Thursday.

00:02:58.340 Since Thursday, how do you cancel 19,000 flights and not have the entire airline industry completely useless?

00:03:12.360 Would you even book a flight?

00:03:15.120 If you knew that 19,000 flights would be canceled, if you knew that was going to happen,

00:03:21.820 would you have booked a flight in the first place?

00:03:24.120 I don't know what percentage that is.

00:03:26.460 Do you?

00:03:26.820 Is that a lot?

00:03:29.480 You know, without knowing the percentage, if I just heard the wrong number, I'd say,

00:03:33.320 well, hell with that.

00:03:36.420 There's no way I'm going to get into that.

00:03:40.700 But maybe it's a small percentage.

00:03:42.260 I don't know.

00:03:43.100 I've got a feeling everybody felt it.

00:03:47.580 So there were 4,200 U.S. flights were delayed and 900 canceled on Sunday.

00:03:53.180 900 flights.

00:03:56.780 900 flights is a lot of flights, isn't it?

00:03:59.920 It feels like everybody would feel that.

00:04:02.280 It doesn't feel like that would just be something that a few people were inconvenienced by.

00:04:06.700 Well, anyway, I wonder about the United States and its ability to fix things and do things.

00:04:14.720 This will be sort of a meta theme for today's live stream.

00:04:17.920 Why is it that we seem to have lost the ability to do things?

00:04:22.360 Is that purely imaginary?

00:04:26.640 Are we actually better than ever at doing things?

00:04:29.740 And it just doesn't seem like it.

00:04:31.260 Or are we trying to do things differently?

00:04:35.080 Or are we in the process of, let's take manufacturing?

00:04:39.540 We might be in the process of leapfrogging the need for lots of humans to manufacture things

00:04:46.540 and then ship them across oceans.

00:04:48.920 We may be leapfrogging that to be the world leader in 3D printing or something.

00:04:55.080 So there's always going to be this destruction period before the rebuilding.

00:04:59.000 So maybe everything that looks like it's breaking is also exactly what you would see before everything improves.

00:05:09.620 Let me give you an example with airline travel.

00:05:13.720 Probably what's going to change airline travel, this is my guess, is a technological breakthrough.

00:05:21.320 Would you agree?

00:05:23.040 I think a technological breakthrough will change airline travel.

00:05:29.000 Here are two things that almost guarantee it.

00:05:34.440 Well, three things, actually.

00:05:36.540 Somebody said facial recognition.

00:05:39.360 Imagine going to the airport and it's all facial recognition.

00:05:45.100 So there's no delay.

00:05:47.200 You walk up, it sees your face, it says, yeah, you're okay.

00:05:50.460 And you just walk right in.

00:05:51.480 Suppose they figure out how to make all airline flight, let's say, independent of the government.

00:06:03.560 So there's no TSA.

00:06:05.860 So let me give you a technological model that would make a lot of flying, you know, different.

00:06:12.940 So imagine if electric planes become a thing.

00:06:17.440 So that's the first thing.

00:06:18.420 The first technology is that battery technology has improved to the point where an electric plane is now economical.

00:06:27.440 And not just because of the cost of fuel lately, but because batteries are getting better.

00:06:32.560 Still short range, still short range.

00:06:36.920 But remember, if you got rid of all the regional flying, that would, you know, improve capacity for everything else.

00:06:44.280 So imagine, if you will, that the way that we fly in the future is that the flights are like an Uber.

00:06:51.860 Uber, they're self-driving with no pilot.

00:06:58.360 It's flown by AI.

00:07:00.080 You book it on your app, and it's pretty close to you.

00:07:04.900 Because it's like a multi-copter, let's say a multi-blade drone.

00:07:10.560 Do you know how drones always have, I think, is it four?

00:07:14.060 Is that the right number?

00:07:15.400 Do drones usually have four independent engines?

00:07:18.120 Because I think that's the same model that they're building now to fly humans.

00:07:24.560 So it would be something like, you know, maybe one to several people getting in their own little flying plane,

00:07:31.820 which is actually now entirely possible.

00:07:34.600 No pilot, no government, no security, because it wouldn't even be worth it for a terrorist.

00:07:42.640 No terrorist would want to blow up a flying plane with six people in it.

00:07:49.080 It would be terrorism-free, because the target wouldn't be worthy.

00:07:52.800 It would be like blowing up a bus on the ground.

00:07:55.640 There would be no point.

00:07:57.900 It's only because planes have so many people in them that they even have any, and they're so big,

00:08:04.040 that they have any terrorism value whatsoever.

00:08:06.400 So with batteries, imagine, if you will, that you go someplace much more local than your airport,

00:08:14.920 because the copter things can take up, you know, they can go straight up.

00:08:20.460 And you just book it on your app, you just walk in, you get on it, and you go to L.A. from San Francisco.

00:08:27.280 Now, it'd still be hard for the cross-country stuff for a while, but just imagine it.

00:08:33.040 So here's the thing.

00:08:34.400 I think that the airline industry is so completely crippled that a competitor like Uber,

00:08:43.540 the way Uber took over taxis, because taxis were a broken industry too, in my opinion.

00:08:50.220 Calling a taxi and not knowing if it would really come or when, that was really broken.

00:08:57.600 And the whole taxi business couldn't figure it out, but then Uber did it. 0.68

00:09:04.660 So I think there's going to be an Uber situation for this guy.

00:09:08.480 It'll fix flying.

00:09:12.340 I saw one suggestion, it's the best one I've seen, for fixing everything.

00:09:18.280 Because like I said, everything's broken.

00:09:19.760 And I just saw a suggestion on the locals' platform.

00:09:24.020 I said that, given that we are probably a simulated reality,

00:09:29.200 if we live in a simulation, the question was asked,

00:09:33.280 have you tried turning it off and then on again?

00:09:37.360 And I thought, I wonder if that would work.

00:09:41.440 What if we just rebooted the simulation?

00:09:45.160 And I thought, well, who would do it?

00:09:46.740 Because you would need somebody outside the simulation to reboot it.

00:09:51.140 And then the other question is, how long do you wait?

00:09:54.340 Do you ever have this problem with your Wi-Fi or your modem at home?

00:09:59.400 You know you have to reboot it, so you pull out the plug.

00:10:03.400 And then you say to yourself, do I really have to wait a minute?

00:10:09.180 Engineers, engineers, talk to me.

00:10:12.040 Have you ever unplugged a thing that you have to, you know,

00:10:14.440 they say wait 30 seconds or something?

00:10:16.740 Do you really think you have to wait 30 seconds?

00:10:20.720 Is that real?

00:10:22.000 Or is that like using your cell phone on an airplane?

00:10:24.840 Of course it's not real.

00:10:27.500 Look at all the answers.

00:10:29.260 People are all over the board on whether that matters.

00:10:32.740 Yeah, I get it.

00:10:33.700 Capacitors have to drain.

00:10:35.500 But you don't think that they engineered them

00:10:37.580 so that turning off the power makes a difference?

00:10:41.560 Like actually, you know, it goes back to its ready state.

00:10:45.140 Are you telling me that capacitors can't be drained upon turning it off?

00:10:53.400 They're not quick-draining capacitors, if that's a thing.

00:10:57.400 So it's funny that your answers are all over the place.

00:11:04.160 And that's something we all do.

00:11:05.720 Don't we do that?

00:11:06.540 Don't we all unplug things and replug them in?

00:11:10.320 And we're all wondering if we've waited long enough?

00:11:12.840 I can't tell you how many times I've done that

00:11:14.980 and said, okay, that didn't fix the problem.

00:11:17.760 Is it because I didn't wait long enough?

00:11:21.420 And I don't think it ever is.

00:11:23.880 I don't think it's ever been that when I went back and waited longer

00:11:28.620 and unplugged it for longer, that was actually the solution.

00:11:32.780 I can't remember a time that that made a difference.

00:11:36.260 Anyway.

00:11:36.520 Here's a mind-blower that I don't know enough about yet.

00:11:42.960 So James Rosen wrote an essay for Real Clear News.

00:11:50.180 And they're drawing on newly declassified information

00:11:53.300 about the Watergate scandal.

00:11:58.220 And here's sort of the summary.

00:12:00.520 I haven't dug into it, but I retweeted it so you can do it if you want to.

00:12:04.060 And apparently Watergate was, wait for it, wait for it,

00:12:11.080 apparently Watergate was fake news.

00:12:20.000 And I think it's actually probably true that it was fake news.

00:12:23.900 Now, not that there wasn't a burglary, not that Nixon wasn't involved,

00:12:27.600 but that the context was that the CIA was behind some part of it.

00:12:32.280 What?

00:12:32.760 And then now we know that.

00:12:36.260 So if that's true, and apparently we have this new information that says it's true,

00:12:44.340 plus there was some older information that is being taken more seriously.

00:12:49.000 But if that's true, then everything we understand about that is different.

00:12:53.220 And the context would change from Nixon is a monster, and he got caught,

00:12:59.560 and then we got rid of him, to Nixon was a victim of the deep state that took him out.

00:13:05.940 That's a pretty big change.

00:13:09.920 They can't both be true, or could they?

00:13:12.520 Well, they can't both be true exclusively.

00:13:14.060 So think about that.

00:13:16.280 The most basic foundational political story in American history,

00:13:22.800 you know, beyond the Civil War, I suppose.

00:13:26.340 The most foundational modern story in American history is probably fake news.

00:13:35.280 Now, how many of you knew that?

00:13:38.200 I always suspected, but I wouldn't say I knew it,

00:13:44.580 but I always wondered if it was real.

00:13:47.800 I always wondered.

00:13:48.940 And the reason I wondered is because everything today is not real, right?

00:13:54.980 Everything today is not real.

00:13:56.920 Almost all coverage today is so biased and distorted

00:14:01.140 that you don't even know how they'll write the history of it,

00:14:04.640 because it's like there are two histories happening at the same time.

00:14:07.460 How would you write that history?

00:14:10.020 Was Trump a monster, or did he have a good first term?

00:14:13.220 Who writes that?

00:14:14.680 How do you decide what the history book says?

00:14:16.640 So, I always had my suspicions about it,

00:14:20.220 but here's the great thing about this.

00:14:23.000 If it turns out that this is true,

00:14:25.440 that Watergate was largely fake news,

00:14:30.280 then this thing that we're learning is, fill in the blanks,

00:14:38.240 worse than Watergate.

00:14:39.720 Thank you.

00:14:40.860 It's worse than Watergate. 0.53

00:14:43.560 That's right.

00:14:44.400 So, if Watergate was a hoax,

00:14:48.320 in large part,

00:14:49.520 you know, not the basic idea that there was a burglary,

00:14:52.080 that seems to be true.

00:14:54.680 But if it was largely,

00:14:56.380 completely distorted in terms of who was doing what to whom and why,

00:15:02.120 it is worse than Watergate.

00:15:03.760 And who would be the people who are famous for writing this story?

00:15:12.880 Let's see.

00:15:13.780 Checking notes.

00:15:14.780 Checking notes.

00:15:17.820 Oh, yeah.

00:15:20.560 It would be the guys who are calling everything Trump does worse than Watergate.

00:15:25.140 I would like to remind you of something that Elon Musk tweeted not too long ago

00:15:33.960 and is quite compatible with my own thinking

00:15:36.740 and also compatible with us being a simulated environment.

00:15:40.360 And the idea is that reality will tend toward what is most entertaining for the observers,

00:15:49.060 not the people in the story, but the observers.

00:15:53.520 Did Watergate trend in the direction that was most entertaining

00:15:57.160 by becoming our standard,

00:16:00.800 literally the way we describe things as being bad,

00:16:04.940 as worse than Watergate?

00:16:06.360 What would be the most entertaining way to cap that off?

00:16:11.320 To find out that Watergate itself was never real,

00:16:15.820 at least the way it was told to us wasn't real.

00:16:21.020 It's the most entertaining outcome.

00:16:27.120 So there you go.

00:16:29.840 I'm going to put together maybe a list of how to predict things.

00:16:33.840 So this would be one of them.

00:16:35.120 So follow the money would be, you know,

00:16:38.300 the highest, most predictable way to predict the future,

00:16:43.600 follow the money.

00:16:47.080 But another one would be that all the news is fake.

00:16:54.280 You know, that would be one way to predict.

00:16:56.240 Because the next thing you hear,

00:16:58.340 let me make that prediction.

00:16:59.900 The next big story,

00:17:02.780 whatever it is,

00:17:04.660 and I don't even know what it would be,

00:17:07.080 is going to be

00:17:08.100 at least fake news for half of the country.

00:17:11.660 I mean, maybe the other half gets something closer to real.

00:17:14.520 But you could predict it today.

00:17:16.720 So predicting that the next story,

00:17:19.380 whatever it is,

00:17:20.900 is fake

00:17:21.840 is a pretty good prediction.

00:17:24.680 Because it would be compatible with the past.

00:17:26.680 So other ways are the

00:17:28.560 Adam's Law of slow-moving disasters.

00:17:31.280 The idea that these big problems

00:17:33.180 that seem unsolvable,

00:17:34.940 we've had quite a few of them.

00:17:36.740 And we keep solving them.

00:17:38.320 And we'll probably keep doing it.

00:17:40.280 Because usually these big unsolvable

00:17:42.660 end-of-the-world problems

00:17:44.260 are a failure of imagination.

00:17:47.360 In other words,

00:17:47.900 we can't imagine how we'd solve it.

00:17:50.080 Therefore, we say we can't.

00:17:51.300 But we also can't imagine anything about the future.

00:17:55.320 I mean, not accurately.

00:17:57.380 You can't accurately imagine the future.

00:17:59.400 If you could, you'd be magic.

00:18:01.500 So the fact that you can't accurately figure out

00:18:03.840 how climate change could be solved,

00:18:06.720 for example,

00:18:08.260 doesn't mean it won't be.

00:18:10.080 It just means you can't imagine it.

00:18:12.160 But you know what else you can't imagine?

00:18:14.100 Everything else.

00:18:16.220 Everything else.

00:18:16.960 Here's another way to predict the future.

00:18:22.340 We'll be fine.

00:18:24.640 That's one of the best filters on the future.

00:18:27.720 Because that filter understands

00:18:30.480 that the news focuses on

00:18:33.300 the most dangerous, provocative ideas.

00:18:37.340 But if you know that the news

00:18:38.860 is telling you the scariest version,

00:18:41.560 then you can say,

00:18:42.880 we'll be fine.

00:18:44.580 Now, being scared of what's coming

00:18:46.860 is part of being fine.

00:18:48.640 Because if most of the world were not afraid,

00:18:51.760 maybe we wouldn't do what we needed to do

00:18:53.860 to be fine.

00:18:55.820 But it's one of those good ways

00:18:57.340 to predict the world.

00:18:58.800 So let's see if I can remember them all.

00:19:02.360 So help me out.

00:19:03.760 So you've got the Adam's Law

00:19:04.760 of slow-moving disasters

00:19:05.800 to predict that we'll figure our way out of stuff.

00:19:09.340 There's the,

00:19:10.240 eh, we'll be fine.

00:19:11.120 which assumes that,

00:19:14.040 you know,

00:19:14.280 we get too much scare in the beginning

00:19:16.120 and we'll be fine.

00:19:17.100 We'll figure it out.

00:19:18.840 Follow the money.

00:19:21.760 That always works.

00:19:23.420 Everything is fake news.

00:19:26.780 And am I forgetting any?

00:19:28.040 How does Adam's Law work

00:19:32.360 if we ignore and don't look at things?

00:19:33.980 Then it doesn't work.

00:19:35.260 The slippery slope fallacy.

00:19:38.320 The slippery slope fallacy

00:19:39.900 says things will keep going

00:19:41.380 until a counterforce

00:19:43.440 pops up,

00:19:44.860 but it always does.

00:19:47.880 That's harder to use

00:19:49.140 to predict the future, though,

00:19:50.460 because you don't know

00:19:51.380 when the counterforce pops up.

00:19:53.380 You can only be sure it does.

00:19:54.900 All right, here's another one.

00:19:55.680 Another way to predict the future.

00:19:58.360 If there's anything

00:19:59.400 that can be hacked,

00:20:01.540 and I'll use hacked

00:20:02.320 in every sense,

00:20:04.260 not just computer hacking,

00:20:05.840 but something you can hack.

00:20:07.380 If something can be hacked

00:20:09.040 and there's a large gain,

00:20:11.020 potential gain,

00:20:12.340 a low risk of getting caught,

00:20:14.500 and a lot of people involved over time,

00:20:17.400 there's a 100% chance

00:20:18.800 the system will get hacked.

00:20:21.740 Am I right?

00:20:23.500 There's a 100...

00:20:24.460 I know there's at least

00:20:28.080 one young viewer

00:20:29.300 who mocks me when I say,

00:20:32.780 am I right?

00:20:35.060 But, am I right?

00:20:38.620 All right.

00:20:39.880 You know who you are.

00:20:45.140 How young?

00:20:47.260 I don't know.

00:20:48.220 Five, six?

00:20:50.240 Maybe five?

00:20:51.000 I heard I have a fan

00:20:53.880 who's very young.

00:20:56.840 Anyway,

00:20:58.500 suppose you decided

00:21:00.360 to calculate reparations.

00:21:02.920 Here's a thought I had today.

00:21:04.720 And this is just the,

00:21:05.740 you know,

00:21:06.300 the bad economist in me.

00:21:08.880 I tend to think about

00:21:10.100 very geeky things.

00:21:12.300 You know,

00:21:12.600 people always wonder,

00:21:13.560 like,

00:21:13.760 what's it like to be me?

00:21:15.340 Because I have an unusual job.

00:21:16.800 And one of the things is,

00:21:18.760 you wouldn't believe

00:21:19.680 the weird,

00:21:21.340 you know,

00:21:21.940 nerdy thoughts

00:21:22.780 that go through my head.

00:21:23.780 Here's one.

00:21:25.000 If you were going to

00:21:26.420 calculate reparations,

00:21:28.560 how the hell would you do it?

00:21:30.660 Other people have asked this question.

00:21:32.820 But let me ask you this.

00:21:33.820 If you were to study

00:21:35.540 the amount

00:21:36.820 that the government,

00:21:38.220 let's say,

00:21:39.200 spends on its people,

00:21:41.360 people who have needs,

00:21:43.240 various needs,

00:21:44.300 whatever the government provides,

00:21:46.480 would you find

00:21:47.200 any difference

00:21:47.860 between the per capita

00:21:49.240 of what we spend

00:21:51.380 on black citizens

00:21:52.700 and have spent,

00:21:53.780 let's say,

00:21:54.160 for however many years,

00:21:56.220 versus white citizens

00:21:58.500 of America?

00:21:59.760 Would there be a difference?

00:22:01.060 And should you include that?

00:22:04.940 Because you can imagine

00:22:06.120 including it

00:22:06.820 in either direction.

00:22:08.560 Suppose you found out

00:22:09.780 that in addition to

00:22:11.200 whatever,

00:22:12.720 you know,

00:22:13.180 systemic racism

00:22:14.220 is lingering

00:22:15.360 from slavery,

00:22:17.760 what if in addition

00:22:18.960 to that,

00:22:20.200 the average white citizen

00:22:22.220 was getting more

00:22:23.120 from the government

00:22:23.880 than the average

00:22:25.920 black citizen?

00:22:27.940 Well,

00:22:28.260 then you should also say,

00:22:29.200 well,

00:22:29.340 that's even worse.

00:22:30.060 So throw that

00:22:31.460 in the calculation

00:22:32.280 so you can give

00:22:33.760 the black citizens

00:22:34.580 even more.

00:22:36.460 Because,

00:22:37.060 you know,

00:22:37.240 you would have a government

00:22:38.060 who not only

00:22:38.960 abused them

00:22:40.320 during slavery,

00:22:42.720 but then systemic racism,

00:22:44.280 but then,

00:22:45.200 for whatever reason,

00:22:46.340 was even giving

00:22:47.080 white citizens

00:22:48.420 more money

00:22:49.040 for decades.

00:22:50.980 If that was

00:22:51.900 what the numbers told.

00:22:53.980 But what if it goes

00:22:54.860 the other way?

00:22:56.980 Because,

00:22:57.780 correct me if I'm wrong,

00:22:58.560 don't we give

00:22:59.340 more money

00:23:00.060 to poorer citizens

00:23:01.600 relative to how much

00:23:03.540 they put into the system?

00:23:05.640 Is that not true?

00:23:07.680 Or is that one of those

00:23:08.720 things that you assume

00:23:09.520 is true,

00:23:10.020 but it's not

00:23:10.780 obviously backwards?

00:23:12.280 Because sometimes

00:23:12.840 in economics,

00:23:13.760 you get that a lot.

00:23:16.660 Somebody says,

00:23:17.340 not true.

00:23:18.440 Yeah.

00:23:18.760 Because I think

00:23:19.460 there might be

00:23:19.940 a contrarian view

00:23:20.960 on this.

00:23:22.200 But my point is this.

00:23:24.220 Without knowing

00:23:25.200 that difference,

00:23:26.660 could you calculate

00:23:27.660 reparations?

00:23:28.960 Because if what

00:23:29.700 you're trying to do

00:23:30.560 is say,

00:23:31.280 has the United States

00:23:32.420 treated this group

00:23:34.000 of citizens fairly,

00:23:36.200 wouldn't you have

00:23:36.940 to include

00:23:38.340 all of the

00:23:39.040 unfairness

00:23:39.740 from the beginning

00:23:41.980 of the country

00:23:42.580 on to today?

00:23:44.580 And if there was

00:23:45.400 some big difference

00:23:46.200 in the per capita

00:23:47.300 spending,

00:23:48.480 or per capita

00:23:49.580 benefit from the

00:23:50.480 government,

00:23:50.980 if you calculated

00:23:52.000 it some other way,

00:23:52.660 wouldn't that have

00:23:53.880 to be in the

00:23:54.460 calculation?

00:23:56.760 Now, of course,

00:23:57.600 all of it makes

00:23:58.180 it impossible,

00:23:58.920 right?

00:23:59.720 Because you end up

00:24:00.560 with so many

00:24:01.020 assumptions and

00:24:01.780 variables that

00:24:02.400 nobody could come

00:24:03.240 up with the same

00:24:03.780 number.

00:24:05.020 So you end up,

00:24:07.060 if you did

00:24:07.760 reparations,

00:24:09.380 you would end up

00:24:10.380 just pulling it

00:24:11.120 out of your ass. 0.97

00:24:12.660 Because there's

00:24:13.240 no better way

00:24:13.740 to do it.

00:24:14.540 You couldn't

00:24:15.040 calculate it.

00:24:16.420 It just wouldn't

00:24:16.840 be possible.

00:24:17.980 And then I've

00:24:18.500 also provocatively

00:24:19.400 said that the

00:24:20.580 correct comparison

00:24:21.480 would be how

00:24:23.700 American black

00:24:25.060 citizens,

00:24:26.300 who have a

00:24:27.160 legacy back

00:24:27.880 to the Civil

00:24:28.700 War,

00:24:29.540 how are they

00:24:30.120 doing compared

00:24:31.220 to the people

00:24:31.860 who did not

00:24:32.720 get captured

00:24:33.940 as slaves and

00:24:34.720 taken to

00:24:35.140 America?

00:24:36.360 So with the

00:24:37.020 descendants of

00:24:37.840 the African

00:24:38.680 residents,

00:24:40.300 are they doing

00:24:41.820 better or worse

00:24:42.540 than Americans?

00:24:44.560 Because then

00:24:45.200 what do you

00:24:45.520 say?

00:24:46.200 You say,

00:24:46.520 well, you're

00:24:48.040 still doing

00:24:48.480 better than

00:24:48.900 you would have

00:24:49.360 done.

00:24:51.480 So what's

00:24:53.000 the right

00:24:53.300 comparison?

00:24:54.380 Do you

00:24:54.620 compare black

00:24:55.840 African slaves 0.97

00:24:57.080 and their

00:24:57.780 descendants to

00:24:59.600 the black

00:25:00.980 African non-slaves? 0.87

00:25:03.800 Because that

00:25:04.240 would be a

00:25:04.640 logical comparison,

00:25:05.880 but it won't

00:25:06.420 get you the

00:25:06.960 right result,

00:25:08.100 the societally

00:25:09.840 approved result.

00:25:12.240 Everything is

00:25:13.080 about what you

00:25:13.580 compare things

00:25:14.220 to.

00:25:15.560 And that's

00:25:16.120 one of the

00:25:16.440 reasons that

00:25:16.980 economists can

00:25:17.980 usually agree

00:25:18.640 with each other

00:25:19.260 eventually.

00:25:19.780 and non-economists

00:25:21.700 can't.

00:25:25.080 Anyway.

00:25:28.020 When we talk

00:25:29.000 about the

00:25:29.580 billionaires who

00:25:30.380 want to control

00:25:30.960 the globe,

00:25:32.580 how many of

00:25:33.200 you believe

00:25:33.660 that's a good

00:25:34.580 way of

00:25:35.080 understanding

00:25:35.600 the world?

00:25:42.880 Okay.

00:25:43.440 how many

00:25:45.200 of you

00:25:45.460 think that

00:25:46.380 a fair

00:25:47.840 filter on

00:25:48.500 the world

00:25:48.940 is that

00:25:49.960 there's a

00:25:50.340 global elite

00:25:51.140 and they've

00:25:52.020 got some

00:25:52.400 kind of

00:25:52.820 reset

00:25:53.380 happening

00:25:53.940 and it's

00:25:56.260 the point

00:25:57.120 of it is

00:25:57.580 to take

00:25:58.040 over the

00:25:58.560 world

00:25:59.340 and they

00:26:00.160 would have

00:26:00.480 the power?

00:26:02.780 Okay.

00:26:03.420 There's something

00:26:03.820 happening here

00:26:04.380 that's really

00:26:04.760 weird that I

00:26:05.600 don't understand.

00:26:07.300 Your comments

00:26:08.060 are completely

00:26:08.920 out of line

00:26:09.780 with what I'm

00:26:11.960 expecting to see.

00:26:13.440 All right.

00:26:15.040 I thought I

00:26:15.700 would see

00:26:16.060 75%

00:26:17.960 yeses

00:26:18.580 but I saw

00:26:19.840 75%

00:26:20.780 noes.

00:26:22.880 Interesting.

00:26:24.080 Now those

00:26:24.820 of you who

00:26:25.280 think yes,

00:26:26.980 what do you

00:26:27.580 make of the

00:26:28.120 fact that

00:26:29.680 most of

00:26:30.380 this audience

00:26:31.060 is fairly

00:26:32.520 similar in

00:26:33.820 attitude

00:26:37.000 and your

00:26:38.100 philosophy

00:26:38.640 and yet

00:26:39.960 you would be

00:26:41.360 in a minority

00:26:41.940 even among

00:26:42.540 the group

00:26:42.940 you agree

00:26:43.340 with?

00:26:44.200 So the

00:26:44.640 people who

00:26:45.060 think that

00:26:45.480 there's a

00:26:46.080 global elite

00:26:46.940 at least

00:26:47.460 in this

00:26:47.800 audience

00:26:48.200 are the

00:26:49.840 minority

00:26:50.260 even among

00:26:51.400 an audience

00:26:51.940 that largely

00:26:52.700 agrees with you

00:26:53.900 on other

00:26:54.260 stuff.

00:26:54.860 Does that

00:26:55.200 bother you?

00:26:57.280 Does it

00:26:57.920 ever bother you

00:26:58.560 to be in

00:26:58.960 the minority

00:26:59.540 opinion

00:27:00.100 even among

00:27:01.340 the group

00:27:01.960 of people

00:27:02.360 who are on

00:27:03.140 your side

00:27:03.760 in general?

00:27:04.420 I don't

00:27:06.740 know that it

00:27:07.160 should.

00:27:07.500 I just

00:27:07.720 wondered.

00:27:09.200 Because that's

00:27:09.660 probably just

00:27:10.100 how you're

00:27:11.580 personally

00:27:12.020 constructed.

00:27:13.940 Sometimes

00:27:14.460 people like

00:27:16.000 it.

00:27:17.560 I tend

00:27:18.320 to like

00:27:18.720 being

00:27:19.020 contrarian

00:27:19.880 so I'd

00:27:20.360 probably like

00:27:20.860 it.

00:27:22.940 Well,

00:27:23.980 I'm going

00:27:25.660 to say this

00:27:26.120 about that.

00:27:27.020 I don't

00:27:27.380 see it.

00:27:27.900 I don't

00:27:30.180 see it.

00:27:31.520 So,

00:27:32.020 yeah,

00:27:32.280 I just

00:27:32.860 don't see

00:27:33.240 the Bilderberg

00:27:33.940 group or

00:27:34.780 the World

00:27:36.320 Economic

00:27:36.900 Forum or

00:27:37.520 anything.

00:27:37.800 I just

00:27:38.060 don't see

00:27:38.420 them as

00:27:38.840 doing what

00:27:40.520 people imagine

00:27:41.220 they're doing.

00:27:42.280 But let's

00:27:43.080 say they

00:27:43.400 are.

00:27:45.060 Let me

00:27:45.400 ask you

00:27:45.740 this.

00:27:46.580 Don't you

00:27:47.000 think the

00:27:47.340 other

00:27:47.660 billionaires

00:27:48.300 have noticed?

00:27:50.580 What do

00:27:51.180 you think

00:27:51.380 they're doing

00:27:51.800 about it?

00:27:53.320 What is

00:27:54.100 your understanding

00:27:54.840 of the world

00:27:55.360 if you believe

00:27:56.020 that a certain

00:27:56.640 set of

00:27:57.040 billionaires

00:27:57.560 or elites

00:27:58.540 are trying

00:27:59.740 to grab

00:28:00.160 power for

00:28:00.640 themselves,

00:28:01.760 what is it

00:28:02.420 that you

00:28:02.660 imagine that

00:28:03.340 all the

00:28:03.700 other

00:28:03.980 billionaires

00:28:04.460 are doing

00:28:04.840 at the

00:28:05.140 same time?

00:28:06.820 Are the

00:28:07.460 other

00:28:07.740 billionaires

00:28:08.240 watching and

00:28:08.920 saying,

00:28:09.800 yeah,

00:28:10.040 you know,

00:28:10.860 I'm okay

00:28:11.320 with that.

00:28:12.720 If those

00:28:13.300 other

00:28:13.580 billionaires

00:28:14.040 get all

00:28:14.400 the power,

00:28:15.420 that's fine

00:28:15.980 because then

00:28:16.440 we billionaires

00:28:17.600 rule.

00:28:19.160 I don't

00:28:19.460 think it

00:28:19.740 works like

00:28:20.160 that,

00:28:20.400 does it?

00:28:21.240 If you're

00:28:21.760 one of the

00:28:22.100 billionaires,

00:28:22.660 don't you

00:28:22.940 think that

00:28:23.320 the other

00:28:23.680 billionaires

00:28:24.160 are your

00:28:24.520 competition?

00:28:25.800 You don't

00:28:26.320 think they're

00:28:26.680 on your

00:28:26.920 side,

00:28:27.260 do you?

00:28:27.560 does

00:28:31.620 Musk think 1.00

00:28:33.120 that

00:28:33.620 Bezos

00:28:37.360 is his

00:28:38.260 competition

00:28:38.820 or do

00:28:40.660 they think

00:28:41.000 their buddy

00:28:41.760 is in the

00:28:42.240 elite?

00:28:44.060 And is

00:28:44.520 Elon Musk

00:28:45.080 in the

00:28:45.440 elite?

00:28:46.580 What if

00:28:47.120 there is

00:28:47.500 an elite

00:28:48.000 trying to

00:28:48.660 control the

00:28:49.260 world,

00:28:50.020 but Elon

00:28:50.700 Musk is 0.98

00:28:51.160 not one

00:28:51.540 of them?

00:28:51.800 Who are you

00:28:53.640 going to bet

00:28:53.960 on?

00:28:55.140 Would you

00:28:55.660 bet on all

00:28:56.320 the elite

00:28:56.940 or Elon

00:28:59.000 Musk if 0.79

00:29:00.220 you assume

00:29:00.680 that he

00:29:00.960 was on

00:29:01.240 the other

00:29:01.500 team?

00:29:02.380 If those

00:29:02.980 teams even

00:29:03.600 exist,

00:29:04.240 I don't

00:29:04.720 think they

00:29:04.980 even exist.

00:29:06.480 So I

00:29:07.220 don't know

00:29:07.560 how the

00:29:09.380 people who

00:29:09.800 think that

00:29:10.280 there's a

00:29:10.660 billionaire

00:29:10.960 elite trying

00:29:12.120 to control

00:29:12.700 the country,

00:29:13.180 I don't

00:29:14.040 know how

00:29:14.360 they explain

00:29:15.200 the other

00:29:16.600 elites.

00:29:18.240 Because if

00:29:18.960 you're telling

00:29:19.300 me that

00:29:19.680 Peter Thiel

00:29:20.260 is on

00:29:20.600 the same

00:29:20.960 team,

00:29:22.600 I don't

00:29:22.940 think so.

00:29:24.180 I don't

00:29:24.780 think so at

00:29:25.320 all.

00:29:26.480 If you're

00:29:27.100 telling me

00:29:27.400 that Musk

00:29:27.880 is part of

00:29:28.400 this global

00:29:29.000 elite,

00:29:30.220 I don't

00:29:30.700 think so.

00:29:31.880 I suppose

00:29:32.400 anything's

00:29:32.920 possible,

00:29:33.620 right?

00:29:34.340 Anything's

00:29:34.820 possible.

00:29:35.460 Could be

00:29:35.780 fooled by

00:29:36.680 anything.

00:29:37.640 But I

00:29:38.600 don't think

00:29:38.940 so.

00:29:39.180 So just

00:29:44.820 consider that

00:29:45.640 if you

00:29:45.920 think the

00:29:46.340 global

00:29:46.680 elites are 0.97

00:29:47.400 in control,

00:29:49.400 your theory

00:29:51.200 should include

00:29:51.960 what are the

00:29:52.540 other billionaires

00:29:53.720 doing about

00:29:54.420 it.

00:29:55.520 Is Bill

00:29:56.120 Gates in

00:29:56.680 that club?

00:29:57.960 Or is

00:29:58.880 Bill Gates

00:29:59.440 one of the

00:30:00.040 people that

00:30:00.560 that club

00:30:01.140 would like

00:30:01.580 to take

00:30:03.480 out?

00:30:04.240 How would

00:30:04.540 you know?

00:30:04.840 something

00:30:10.000 something

00:30:10.360 about

00:30:10.680 central

00:30:11.140 banks.

00:30:12.420 I guess

00:30:13.080 that's what

00:30:13.420 I'm supposed

00:30:13.820 to say.

00:30:15.020 You can

00:30:15.540 tie it all

00:30:16.020 together by

00:30:16.580 saying,

00:30:17.380 there's

00:30:17.520 something I

00:30:18.000 don't

00:30:18.200 understand

00:30:18.720 about

00:30:19.020 central

00:30:19.480 banks.

00:30:21.080 So it's

00:30:22.120 probably them.

00:30:23.040 It's probably

00:30:23.340 them.

00:30:24.940 There's an

00:30:25.740 interesting article

00:30:26.580 I will call

00:30:27.220 your attention

00:30:27.740 to,

00:30:28.140 speaking of

00:30:28.580 Peter Thiel,

00:30:29.960 by Elizabeth

00:30:30.960 Dwoskin,

00:30:32.020 who's writing

00:30:32.580 for the New

00:30:33.000 York Times.

00:30:33.580 And she

00:30:35.420 tweeted that

00:30:35.960 for months

00:30:36.360 she'd been

00:30:36.700 working on

00:30:37.080 a big story

00:30:37.620 about Peter

00:30:38.600 Thiel and

00:30:41.020 about how

00:30:41.940 he left

00:30:42.360 Facebook,

00:30:43.300 et cetera,

00:30:44.380 and it

00:30:45.440 morphed into

00:30:45.980 an examination

00:30:46.540 of the

00:30:47.060 ambitions to

00:30:47.840 be an

00:30:48.080 architect of

00:30:48.800 the new

00:30:49.080 American

00:30:49.500 right.

00:30:50.560 I don't

00:30:50.880 know if

00:30:51.160 that's true.

00:30:53.320 Do you

00:30:53.540 think Peter

00:30:53.980 Thiel wants

00:30:54.500 to be an

00:30:55.800 architect of

00:30:56.620 the new

00:30:56.900 American

00:30:57.280 right?

00:30:58.920 I don't

00:30:59.180 know.

00:30:59.440 That seems

00:31:00.020 a little

00:31:00.380 bit hyperbolic.

00:31:02.260 But I

00:31:03.740 think he

00:31:04.040 is one

00:31:04.300 of the

00:31:04.480 people who

00:31:04.900 would like

00:31:05.160 to influence

00:31:05.700 things in

00:31:06.300 this country.

00:31:09.260 So maybe

00:31:12.460 it's a little

00:31:12.880 bit true.

00:31:14.400 But you

00:31:14.940 should read

00:31:15.300 it because

00:31:15.760 there's just

00:31:16.440 sort of an

00:31:16.820 interesting

00:31:17.160 behind-the-scenes

00:31:18.160 look.

00:31:19.380 I'll just

00:31:19.880 call your

00:31:20.260 attention to

00:31:20.820 that because

00:31:22.240 it's a longer

00:31:22.780 thing than I

00:31:23.360 want to

00:31:23.640 summarize.

00:31:25.200 You know,

00:31:25.820 I've got a

00:31:26.380 larger philosophy

00:31:28.220 that says no

00:31:28.900 one understands

00:31:29.560 economics,

00:31:30.960 especially

00:31:31.460 economists.

00:31:33.060 And that the

00:31:33.440 more you know

00:31:34.000 about economics,

00:31:34.920 the less you

00:31:35.600 understand it.

00:31:37.800 It's like the

00:31:38.440 people who are

00:31:38.900 sure about

00:31:39.480 economics are

00:31:40.120 the people who

00:31:40.540 know the

00:31:40.880 least about it.

00:31:42.300 The more you

00:31:42.920 know, the

00:31:43.340 more you go,

00:31:43.920 I'm not so

00:31:44.740 sure.

00:31:46.880 And

00:31:47.320 unfortunately,

00:31:48.800 I'm in the

00:31:49.320 category, you

00:31:50.600 know, I have a

00:31:50.960 degree in

00:31:51.540 economics and I

00:31:52.540 have an MBA.

00:31:53.620 And I'm in the

00:31:54.540 category of

00:31:55.180 knowing just

00:31:55.920 enough that I

00:31:57.800 don't think

00:31:58.180 anybody knows

00:31:58.760 anything.

00:32:00.180 Now I'm

00:32:00.540 exaggerating a

00:32:01.240 little bit.

00:32:02.260 But here's

00:32:04.620 one point of

00:32:06.220 view.

00:32:07.120 I think I'll

00:32:07.760 on my

00:32:08.360 live streams,

00:32:08.880 I'll just

00:32:09.140 show you

00:32:09.440 different points

00:32:10.200 of view so

00:32:10.680 I can make

00:32:11.100 this point

00:32:11.540 over time,

00:32:12.580 how different

00:32:13.440 people's opinions

00:32:14.220 are about the

00:32:14.920 economy right

00:32:15.500 now.

00:32:15.700 And these

00:32:15.940 are smart

00:32:16.780 people.

00:32:17.660 You know,

00:32:17.820 I'm not

00:32:18.060 talking about

00:32:18.480 your average

00:32:19.020 idiot. 0.79

00:32:20.020 I'm talking

00:32:20.400 about smart

00:32:21.020 people who

00:32:21.800 don't seem to

00:32:22.980 have any grasp

00:32:23.740 of what the

00:32:24.260 economy is

00:32:24.800 about.

00:32:25.060 But Joey

00:32:26.560 Politano

00:32:27.220 tweets,

00:32:28.600 if you

00:32:28.820 thought that

00:32:29.240 households

00:32:29.780 needed a

00:32:30.660 negative wealth

00:32:31.480 shock to get

00:32:32.300 spending down,

00:32:33.480 in other words,

00:32:34.480 if households

00:32:35.300 feel they have

00:32:35.920 less money,

00:32:37.440 they'll spend

00:32:37.920 less and that

00:32:38.640 should make

00:32:39.100 inflation go

00:32:39.940 down.

00:32:40.820 So he's saying

00:32:41.340 that we have

00:32:42.240 that now because

00:32:43.200 crypto is down

00:32:44.140 over 50%,

00:32:45.220 stocks are in

00:32:46.040 the bear market,

00:32:47.520 it's hard to

00:32:48.280 refinance anything

00:32:49.220 because interest

00:32:49.840 rates are up,

00:32:50.540 and the

00:32:51.560 housing market

00:32:52.140 is cooling

00:32:52.580 off.

00:32:54.060 So is

00:32:56.160 that all

00:32:56.480 you need?

00:32:58.600 If the

00:32:59.680 households stop

00:33:01.040 spending money

00:33:01.920 or they cut

00:33:03.760 back drastically

00:33:04.500 and it looks

00:33:05.060 like the

00:33:05.800 external shocks

00:33:07.460 that cause

00:33:07.980 that are all

00:33:08.480 there,

00:33:09.880 it should be,

00:33:10.780 I mean,

00:33:11.040 I feel I'm

00:33:13.520 cutting back

00:33:14.060 on expenses.

00:33:15.420 Let me ask

00:33:15.880 you, how

00:33:16.680 many of you

00:33:17.240 are cutting

00:33:17.760 back on

00:33:18.160 expenses?

00:33:18.720 Because even

00:33:19.040 at my income

00:33:20.220 level, I'm

00:33:21.680 actually cutting

00:33:22.220 back substantially

00:33:23.380 on expenses.

00:33:25.360 Because my

00:33:26.060 income is down

00:33:26.820 maybe a

00:33:28.440 third.

00:33:30.500 So when I

00:33:31.160 think, yeah,

00:33:31.900 look at all

00:33:32.260 the yeses

00:33:32.720 coming by.

00:33:33.660 Basically, I

00:33:34.720 think all of

00:33:35.240 us are cutting

00:33:35.680 back our

00:33:36.080 expenses.

00:33:37.520 But let me

00:33:38.960 ask the same

00:33:39.540 question, and

00:33:40.900 don't just say

00:33:41.560 yes or no so

00:33:42.400 I'll know which

00:33:42.960 question you

00:33:43.440 answer.

00:33:44.360 So say a

00:33:44.900 little bit more

00:33:45.380 than yes or

00:33:45.880 no.

00:33:46.640 But did you

00:33:47.300 also spend

00:33:48.020 more as

00:33:49.400 soon as you

00:33:50.140 got freed

00:33:50.780 from the

00:33:51.480 lockdown?

00:33:53.240 Like there

00:33:53.600 was a period

00:33:54.120 where you

00:33:54.500 spent more,

00:33:55.140 right?

00:33:55.340 You had a

00:33:55.600 little pent-up

00:33:57.160 vacation money,

00:33:58.580 a little pent-up

00:33:59.280 entertainment money.

00:34:01.340 So didn't

00:34:02.200 most of you go

00:34:03.040 from suddenly

00:34:03.820 spending more,

00:34:05.180 and I think I

00:34:05.820 did as well.

00:34:06.900 I know I did,

00:34:07.720 yeah.

00:34:08.020 I definitely

00:34:08.600 spent more,

00:34:10.040 like a lot

00:34:10.800 more, right

00:34:11.400 after the

00:34:12.620 pandemic sort

00:34:14.020 of loosened up.

00:34:15.020 But now I'm

00:34:15.920 definitely in a

00:34:16.480 spending less

00:34:17.060 mode, by

00:34:18.300 far.

00:34:20.340 So are

00:34:24.560 we, is

00:34:26.160 it self-correcting?

00:34:27.460 So here's one

00:34:28.380 thing I think I

00:34:29.480 know about the

00:34:30.060 economy.

00:34:31.060 I believe the

00:34:32.280 modern economy is

00:34:33.480 self-correcting.

00:34:35.200 And believe it or

00:34:36.400 not, when the

00:34:37.540 Biden administration

00:34:38.240 says inflation is

00:34:39.880 transitory, I

00:34:41.800 actually think that's

00:34:42.700 true.

00:34:43.860 I actually think

00:34:44.600 that's true.

00:34:45.020 It's just that

00:34:46.160 transitory is not 1.00

00:34:48.000 defined.

00:34:49.460 I think transitory

00:34:50.720 is three to five

00:34:51.480 years.

00:34:53.300 Would you accept

00:34:54.240 three to five

00:34:55.660 years as

00:34:56.120 transitory?

00:34:57.420 Or not?

00:34:58.740 I mean, that's

00:34:59.160 not permanent.

00:35:00.920 I think it's a

00:35:01.660 three to five

00:35:02.140 years.

00:35:02.520 Because it's

00:35:03.020 going to take

00:35:03.340 that long to

00:35:04.240 try to spin up

00:35:05.600 any additional

00:35:07.060 resources, and

00:35:08.660 that's even too

00:35:09.340 fast.

00:35:10.400 You're not going

00:35:11.040 to build a

00:35:11.400 refinery in three

00:35:12.180 to five years,

00:35:12.860 are you?

00:35:13.220 But maybe you

00:35:14.860 could get some

00:35:15.340 going.

00:35:17.360 But in the

00:35:17.940 meantime, between

00:35:19.000 now and the

00:35:19.600 time that we can

00:35:20.180 spin up, I love

00:35:21.500 that phrase, because

00:35:22.260 it sounds like you

00:35:22.960 can do things

00:35:23.560 really easily, we'll

00:35:24.880 just spin up some

00:35:25.660 more factories.

00:35:27.080 Let's spin up some

00:35:27.920 extra capacity.

00:35:29.720 It's easy.

00:35:30.540 It's just two

00:35:30.940 words.

00:35:31.240 Just spin it up.

00:35:32.540 Don't tell me it's

00:35:33.180 hard.

00:35:34.240 Just spin it up.

00:35:37.240 But if we stop

00:35:38.280 spending, inflation

00:35:39.400 should come somewhat

00:35:40.360 under control, and

00:35:41.900 then the economy

00:35:42.740 will do what the

00:35:43.340 economy does, which

00:35:44.240 is market

00:35:45.700 competition, should

00:35:47.920 do exactly what

00:35:48.800 Biden wants.

00:35:50.120 Here's something

00:35:50.780 you're really going

00:35:51.420 to hate.

00:35:53.520 Biden putting the

00:35:54.680 squeeze on all of

00:35:55.940 the traditional

00:35:56.620 energy sources

00:35:57.620 might actually

00:35:59.760 work.

00:36:03.160 Because even

00:36:04.280 though I wouldn't

00:36:05.120 have chosen it,

00:36:06.460 I would never

00:36:07.080 have chosen, hey,

00:36:08.320 do bad things to

00:36:09.740 our energy

00:36:10.340 energy situation

00:36:12.680 at the same time

00:36:13.480 that bad things

00:36:14.080 are happening to

00:36:14.700 it anyway, you

00:36:15.840 know, from external

00:36:16.640 shocks, I never

00:36:18.900 would have

00:36:19.200 recommended it.

00:36:20.440 But it is

00:36:21.240 nonetheless true

00:36:22.180 that emergencies

00:36:25.000 and crises

00:36:25.940 cause you to act

00:36:27.640 faster and in ways

00:36:28.900 that you wouldn't

00:36:29.340 have otherwise.

00:36:30.180 It basically

00:36:30.820 breaks red

00:36:31.620 tapes and log

00:36:32.380 jams.

00:36:33.480 So I believe

00:36:34.060 that Biden has

00:36:34.760 created,

00:36:36.040 accidentally, a

00:36:37.840 greater energy

00:36:38.980 emergency than

00:36:39.840 there would have

00:36:40.300 been.

00:36:41.860 But I'm not sure

00:36:42.960 it didn't get us

00:36:44.280 to a better place

00:36:45.100 faster.

00:36:45.920 We're not there.

00:36:47.560 So, yeah, that's

00:36:48.600 still speculative.

00:36:49.660 Could we get there?

00:36:50.700 But it does seem to

00:36:51.800 me that it is

00:36:52.800 entirely true that

00:36:54.740 if you were

00:36:55.340 somebody looking

00:36:56.120 into investing

00:36:57.180 in, let's say,

00:36:58.940 a battery farm,

00:37:00.920 you know, a farm

00:37:01.520 of batteries just

00:37:02.300 to store energy,

00:37:03.480 and you weren't

00:37:03.920 sure that was a

00:37:04.520 good investment,

00:37:05.820 sure looks like

00:37:06.500 it now.

00:37:07.740 At the moment,

00:37:08.580 it looks like a

00:37:09.180 good investment.

00:37:10.380 So there's

00:37:12.180 probably a whole

00:37:12.840 bunch of

00:37:13.280 investment that

00:37:15.020 is being unleashed

00:37:15.940 because Biden

00:37:16.780 destroyed the

00:37:17.740 traditional energy

00:37:18.780 market.

00:37:22.380 So in theory,

00:37:24.300 this is all

00:37:24.960 self-correcting

00:37:25.800 in three to five

00:37:26.820 years.

00:37:27.800 So I think I'm

00:37:29.060 going to die on

00:37:29.640 that hill, or

00:37:30.800 hopefully triumph

00:37:32.460 on that hill

00:37:33.080 and raise my

00:37:34.000 flag.

00:37:35.680 Remember during

00:37:36.420 the pandemic

00:37:36.960 and it looked

00:37:37.880 like everything

00:37:38.360 was going to

00:37:38.820 go to hell

00:37:39.220 and we were

00:37:39.980 going to run

00:37:40.320 out of toilet

00:37:40.780 paper.

00:37:42.220 And what did

00:37:42.920 I tell you?

00:37:44.760 What did I tell

00:37:45.660 you?

00:37:46.320 At the very

00:37:46.880 beginning of the

00:37:47.420 pandemic, when it

00:37:48.200 looked the most

00:37:48.940 scary, I told you

00:37:51.400 everything to be

00:37:51.880 fine.

00:37:53.420 And basically it

00:37:54.380 was.

00:37:55.220 We figured it

00:37:56.100 out.

00:37:56.440 We didn't run

00:37:56.920 out of food.

00:37:57.900 Same thing now.

00:37:59.560 Same thing now.

00:38:00.320 We will figure it

00:38:01.100 out.

00:38:01.960 It will be,

00:38:02.820 there will be

00:38:03.180 some dislocation.

00:38:04.220 Currently I

00:38:05.560 have to use a

00:38:06.160 shampoo that I

00:38:06.900 don't like.

00:38:07.460 Yes, I use

00:38:07.920 shampoo.

00:38:08.380 Shut up. 0.95

00:38:09.900 And, you

00:38:11.720 know, so

00:38:12.280 there will be

00:38:12.640 adjustments like

00:38:13.420 that.

00:38:14.260 We might be

00:38:14.820 using our

00:38:15.280 currency for the

00:38:16.040 toilet paper for

00:38:16.840 a while.

00:38:17.260 Just small

00:38:17.680 adjustments like

00:38:18.380 that.

00:38:19.080 But I think

00:38:19.460 we'll figure it

00:38:19.920 out.

00:38:20.460 And the reason

00:38:20.900 is that we

00:38:21.420 have a self-adjusting

00:38:23.460 economy like we've

00:38:24.680 never had before.

00:38:26.560 So when anybody

00:38:27.440 looks at history

00:38:28.240 and says, in the

00:38:29.520 past, when we

00:38:30.920 had these factors

00:38:32.180 in play, you

00:38:33.740 could predict

00:38:34.260 that the next

00:38:34.840 thing that would

00:38:35.200 happen would be

00:38:35.820 X.

00:38:36.320 That doesn't

00:38:36.960 work anymore.

00:38:38.660 Because take

00:38:40.260 Juneteenth as

00:38:43.880 the model of

00:38:44.680 why history

00:38:45.360 doesn't repeat

00:38:46.220 anymore.

00:38:47.440 The reason that

00:38:48.400 Juneteenth is a 0.97

00:38:50.160 holiday is

00:38:51.680 because slaves in 0.95

00:38:53.040 two states didn't

00:38:54.160 know that they

00:38:54.800 were emancipated

00:38:55.640 for however many

00:38:56.820 years.

00:38:57.880 They didn't know

00:38:58.940 because there was

00:38:59.420 no internet.

00:38:59.840 So in the

00:39:01.680 old days, you

00:39:03.160 could emancipate

00:39:04.400 the slaves and

00:39:05.160 the slaves wouldn't 0.81

00:39:05.820 even know it for

00:39:07.300 a long time.

00:39:08.700 You can't compare

00:39:09.440 that world to

00:39:10.180 anything in which

00:39:11.820 you have instant

00:39:12.520 communication

00:39:13.200 everywhere.

00:39:14.220 And everything's

00:39:15.100 fungible.

00:39:16.100 You can move

00:39:16.820 pretty much

00:39:17.320 everything to

00:39:18.060 everywhere.

00:39:19.780 So we can

00:39:20.760 adjust and

00:39:21.680 adjust our

00:39:22.960 environmental

00:39:23.380 standards and

00:39:25.140 create rare

00:39:26.440 earth minerals

00:39:28.060 where before only

00:39:29.680 China could do 0.76

00:39:30.380 it because they

00:39:30.940 had relaxed

00:39:31.580 standards.

00:39:33.660 But it's an

00:39:34.340 emergency.

00:39:35.640 So you relax

00:39:36.320 your standards or

00:39:37.060 you find a better

00:39:37.600 way to do it.

00:39:38.460 It doesn't require

00:39:39.380 that.

00:39:40.220 So I've got a

00:39:41.060 feeling that all

00:39:41.980 of this stress

00:39:42.820 we're feeling on

00:39:43.660 the system is a

00:39:45.420 lot like the

00:39:46.020 World War II

00:39:46.680 stress.

00:39:48.840 This feels like a

00:39:49.960 World War II

00:39:50.700 level stress on

00:39:51.760 the system.

00:39:52.700 And what World

00:39:53.260 War II produced,

00:39:55.000 after all the

00:39:56.160 tragedy, was

00:39:58.260 sort of a

00:39:59.140 clean slate to

00:40:01.620 rebuild.

00:40:02.580 So Japan and 0.74

00:40:03.460 Germany did 0.94

00:40:04.000 well because

00:40:04.740 they unfortunately

00:40:05.740 were so destroyed

00:40:06.680 that they could

00:40:07.180 start from

00:40:07.640 something closer

00:40:09.220 to scratch.

00:40:11.160 So I think we're

00:40:12.200 in an extended

00:40:12.840 period of

00:40:13.640 destroying what

00:40:14.500 we have but

00:40:15.380 productively.

00:40:16.520 Because we have

00:40:17.380 a system that

00:40:18.000 can destroy and

00:40:19.100 then fix without

00:40:20.100 even human

00:40:20.720 interaction.

00:40:22.220 As Ian

00:40:22.980 Bremer pointed

00:40:23.680 out in a tweet

00:40:25.220 that if you

00:40:26.380 look at the

00:40:26.880 various governments

00:40:27.720 of the world

00:40:28.240 that have high

00:40:28.840 inflation right

00:40:29.520 now, now these

00:40:31.460 are his

00:40:31.980 interpretations of

00:40:33.500 these governments

00:40:34.120 but people argue

00:40:35.100 the left and

00:40:35.800 right parts.

00:40:36.940 But he says

00:40:37.400 we've got a

00:40:38.740 left-leaning

00:40:39.200 government in

00:40:39.780 the U.S.

00:40:40.200 with high

00:40:40.540 inflation.

00:40:41.500 The U.K., he 0.92

00:40:42.440 says, is a

00:40:43.540 right-leaning

00:40:43.920 government with

00:40:44.600 high inflation.

00:40:45.720 Germany is a 1.00

00:40:46.360 centrist government

00:40:47.080 with high

00:40:47.440 inflation.

00:40:48.420 Italy is

00:40:49.060 everyone in

00:40:49.860 government with

00:40:50.400 high inflation.

00:40:51.020 So his point

00:40:51.480 is that every

00:40:52.920 kind of government

00:40:53.800 gave you high

00:40:55.560 inflation.

00:40:57.000 And therefore,

00:40:58.560 he says, wild

00:40:59.440 gas is not

00:41:00.160 the government.

00:41:01.940 Now this is an

00:41:03.000 extension of my

00:41:04.080 prediction that I

00:41:05.040 made at the

00:41:05.700 beginning of the

00:41:06.260 pandemic, the

00:41:07.780 strangest prediction

00:41:08.720 that I've made

00:41:10.040 probably yet, and

00:41:11.520 also perfectly

00:41:12.440 accurate.

00:41:13.660 I said before the

00:41:14.980 pandemic, like when

00:41:16.220 it was just

00:41:16.580 starting, that

00:41:18.120 leadership in

00:41:19.220 different countries

00:41:20.100 would not be the

00:41:21.640 variable that made

00:41:22.520 a difference in

00:41:23.120 the outcomes.

00:41:24.540 And that was

00:41:25.320 crazy, right?

00:41:27.720 I don't think

00:41:28.460 anybody took that

00:41:29.280 seriously.

00:41:30.180 It sounded like

00:41:30.780 such a ridiculous

00:41:31.600 prediction that you

00:41:34.600 didn't even have to

00:41:35.300 address it.

00:41:36.180 You didn't have to

00:41:36.920 agree with it.

00:41:37.560 You didn't even have

00:41:38.180 to disagree with it

00:41:39.140 because it was just

00:41:40.080 ridiculous.

00:41:40.700 It was more like

00:41:41.280 absurd.

00:41:43.000 And I said it over

00:41:44.200 and over and over

00:41:44.900 again in the

00:41:45.720 beginning.

00:41:46.380 And I was always

00:41:47.560 surprised that people

00:41:49.100 didn't react to it.

00:41:50.880 They didn't agree

00:41:51.680 and they didn't

00:41:52.800 disagree.

00:41:53.160 It just was

00:41:54.560 sort of just

00:41:55.340 weird.

00:41:57.100 And here we

00:41:57.560 are.

00:41:58.840 The pandemic's

00:41:59.920 over and you

00:42:00.620 can't tell the

00:42:01.380 difference in

00:42:02.460 terms of leadership

00:42:03.320 decisions.

00:42:04.500 There's no

00:42:05.140 difference.

00:42:06.240 Why did South

00:42:06.940 Korea do well? 0.97

00:42:08.660 Was it because of

00:42:09.520 leadership?

00:42:10.540 Probably not.

00:42:11.460 It's probably because

00:42:12.000 they had access to

00:42:12.820 rapid tests, maybe a

00:42:14.640 cultural difference,

00:42:15.820 maybe because of

00:42:16.540 their isolation,

00:42:17.380 whatever.

00:42:17.580 But it probably

00:42:18.940 had nothing to do

00:42:19.640 with their

00:42:19.880 leadership.

00:42:22.480 Right?

00:42:23.440 So, and here we

00:42:25.340 have another

00:42:25.720 example.

00:42:26.500 Inflation is high

00:42:27.580 with all these

00:42:28.240 different governments,

00:42:29.200 with all these

00:42:29.680 different philosophies

00:42:30.780 of government, and

00:42:32.360 probably you can't

00:42:33.360 tell the difference.

00:42:35.260 Can you tell me

00:42:36.040 that Germany's 0.90

00:42:37.400 leadership is why

00:42:39.640 they have high

00:42:40.160 inflation but ours

00:42:41.240 is not?

00:42:41.720 It just looks like

00:42:43.840 there is a global

00:42:44.720 element to the

00:42:45.480 inflation, and

00:42:47.020 that's all there is

00:42:47.680 to it.

00:42:47.960 Everything's disrupted

00:42:48.880 everywhere, so why

00:42:50.400 wouldn't it affect

00:42:51.040 everybody?

00:42:53.040 Now, I did see

00:42:54.580 Shannon Bream take

00:42:56.380 down a Biden

00:42:58.160 administration

00:42:59.180 advisor type for

00:43:03.060 essentially being part

00:43:04.600 of the inflation,

00:43:05.980 especially the

00:43:06.560 energy problem.

00:43:08.300 And she did a

00:43:11.260 really good job.

00:43:11.900 I tweeted that.

00:43:13.280 So check out

00:43:13.800 Shannon Bream,

00:43:15.540 really giving it

00:43:16.840 to one of the

00:43:18.280 Biden apologists,

00:43:19.860 I guess.

00:43:20.700 I hate using that

00:43:21.800 word, but it seems

00:43:22.780 to fit in this

00:43:23.400 case.

00:43:24.720 Now, here's, to

00:43:26.800 his credit, one

00:43:28.260 of the arguments

00:43:28.900 that the Biden

00:43:31.520 administration is

00:43:32.220 making is that a

00:43:33.580 survey showed that

00:43:34.940 when you talk to

00:43:35.500 the CEOs who do

00:43:37.180 investment in

00:43:38.060 energy, that 90

00:43:41.220 some percent of

00:43:42.100 them said that it

00:43:43.040 wasn't the

00:43:43.500 government that

00:43:44.140 was stopping them

00:43:44.800 from investing.

00:43:47.240 And I didn't see

00:43:48.260 Shannon Bream address

00:43:50.160 that point

00:43:50.740 specifically.

00:43:52.980 But I have a

00:43:53.960 feeling that that

00:43:55.020 data probably is

00:43:56.800 not on point,

00:43:58.300 meaning that I'm

00:44:03.840 not sure that that

00:44:06.020 survey is exactly

00:44:07.180 telling us what we

00:44:08.760 think it is.

00:44:11.000 Anyway, there's a

00:44:12.000 little difference of

00:44:12.980 agreement.

00:44:13.440 I'm not sure what

00:44:14.260 is true.

00:44:15.560 I'm a little unclear

00:44:16.760 because the propaganda

00:44:18.360 is so thick from

00:44:19.580 left and right.

00:44:21.300 And so I can't tell

00:44:22.160 how much is right

00:44:25.160 leading propaganda

00:44:26.300 that says that

00:44:28.000 Biden's responsible

00:44:28.960 for, you know,

00:44:29.780 canceling all these

00:44:30.540 oils and gas leases

00:44:31.700 and stuff.

00:44:32.440 But they do have an

00:44:33.560 argument that those

00:44:34.500 things are trivial.

00:44:35.320 So there's one

00:44:38.160 argument that says

00:44:38.920 that Biden caused

00:44:39.780 this by everything

00:44:41.460 from not approving

00:44:42.900 energy projects to

00:44:44.160 closing down energy

00:44:45.160 projects.

00:44:46.380 But the counter

00:44:47.320 argument is, yeah,

00:44:48.400 he may have done

00:44:48.960 all those things,

00:44:50.200 but they're so small

00:44:51.240 that they don't

00:44:51.720 really make any

00:44:52.360 difference.

00:44:54.460 What do you think?

00:45:02.040 Because I don't

00:45:02.800 know.

00:45:03.040 I follow the news

00:45:05.340 and as I said,

00:45:07.580 I've got some

00:45:08.240 economic background,

00:45:10.020 but I don't know

00:45:10.640 the answer to that

00:45:11.200 question because I

00:45:12.020 follow the news.

00:45:13.520 I don't believe the

00:45:14.840 news is giving me

00:45:15.740 straight news on the

00:45:16.720 left or the right

00:45:17.560 on this question.

00:45:19.620 Do you?

00:45:20.580 Do you think that

00:45:21.500 the left or the

00:45:23.140 right are giving you

00:45:24.040 the...

00:45:25.300 Because the right

00:45:26.340 is saying,

00:45:27.120 Biden made these

00:45:28.080 decisions,

00:45:29.340 it reduced future

00:45:30.860 amounts of energy,

00:45:32.020 therefore prices

00:45:34.000 went up.

00:45:34.760 It's just, you

00:45:35.320 know, two plus

00:45:36.320 two is four.

00:45:37.560 It's that simple.

00:45:39.200 The right says,

00:45:40.700 even if he had

00:45:41.460 done everything

00:45:42.140 differently,

00:45:43.740 none of this

00:45:44.440 makes a difference

00:45:45.140 in the near term.

00:45:46.580 So you couldn't

00:45:47.540 possibly be seeing

00:45:48.540 those decisions

00:45:49.280 in the near term

00:45:50.360 and, you know,

00:45:52.300 that people are

00:45:53.200 not so smart

00:45:53.880 that the near term

00:45:54.660 really reflects

00:45:55.440 the long term

00:45:56.480 anyway.

00:45:57.680 That's not a

00:45:58.320 terrible argument.

00:45:58.980 if it's...

00:45:59.660 I don't know

00:45:59.940 if it's true.

00:46:01.520 So let me be

00:46:02.300 clear.

00:46:02.800 I don't know

00:46:03.320 if the Biden

00:46:03.800 argument is

00:46:04.600 accurate or

00:46:05.680 true.

00:46:06.820 I just know

00:46:07.660 it's a good

00:46:08.220 argument.

00:46:09.380 When you hear

00:46:10.180 it, you go,

00:46:10.740 oh, okay,

00:46:11.300 that's a good

00:46:11.700 argument.

00:46:12.820 So let me

00:46:14.600 give it to you

00:46:15.340 and this will

00:46:16.520 be kind of a

00:46:17.420 mind fucker

00:46:18.260 for some of you.

00:46:19.860 For those of you

00:46:20.940 who are sure

00:46:21.760 because you

00:46:22.640 believe the

00:46:23.120 propaganda,

00:46:24.620 those of you

00:46:25.200 who are sure

00:46:25.640 that our current

00:46:26.480 energy costs

00:46:27.320 are substantially

00:46:29.000 and you can

00:46:30.520 determine substantially

00:46:31.600 whatever that

00:46:32.120 means to you.

00:46:33.640 How many of you

00:46:34.360 believe that you

00:46:35.220 do have enough

00:46:36.960 information

00:46:37.520 and that it's

00:46:39.180 accurate

00:46:39.760 and that you

00:46:40.840 understand the

00:46:41.560 situation

00:46:42.060 and that Biden's

00:46:43.940 decisions specifically

00:46:45.160 have raised the

00:46:47.500 price of energy

00:46:48.360 today?

00:46:49.560 How many of you

00:46:50.400 feel confident

00:46:51.080 that that really

00:46:51.920 is happening?

00:46:56.000 I'm seeing a lot

00:46:56.880 of confidence.

00:46:57.320 I guess I'm

00:46:58.820 contrarian on this

00:46:59.760 one.

00:47:00.540 I'm not.

00:47:02.420 I'm not.

00:47:05.940 Now the Shannon

00:47:07.260 Bream argument

00:47:08.100 is pretty strong,

00:47:09.660 the one she made,

00:47:11.160 which is she 0.71

00:47:12.280 quoted Biden

00:47:14.040 saying he was

00:47:14.800 basically going to

00:47:15.660 dismantle the

00:47:16.540 fossil fuel industry

00:47:18.120 and she says why

00:47:20.020 would anybody

00:47:20.620 invest,

00:47:22.120 do a long-term

00:47:23.220 billion-dollar

00:47:23.820 investments when

00:47:25.180 he's trying to

00:47:25.840 dismantle the

00:47:26.620 thing?

00:47:27.320 Why would

00:47:29.560 you?

00:47:30.660 That's a pretty

00:47:31.280 good argument,

00:47:33.040 right?

00:47:33.400 But here's the

00:47:34.020 counter-argument to

00:47:34.920 the counter-argument.

00:47:36.360 Even if people had

00:47:37.640 said, okay, we're

00:47:39.520 going to go ahead

00:47:40.140 and ignore Biden

00:47:41.460 even though he says

00:47:42.240 he's going to

00:47:42.700 dismantle us, 0.90

00:47:43.420 we're going to

00:47:43.760 ignore him and

00:47:44.840 we're going to put

00:47:45.340 billions into

00:47:46.120 investments for new

00:47:47.660 energies and

00:47:49.220 drilling and new

00:47:50.200 leases and all

00:47:50.820 that.

00:47:51.880 Would any of that

00:47:52.720 made any difference

00:47:53.460 today?

00:47:55.720 No, I don't

00:47:57.060 think so.

00:47:58.280 So the

00:47:58.800 Democrat argument

00:47:59.800 that even if

00:48:00.760 everything you say

00:48:01.620 about Biden is

00:48:02.400 true, that he is

00:48:04.340 making decisions

00:48:05.100 that absolutely

00:48:06.080 will change the

00:48:07.040 level of

00:48:07.800 availability of

00:48:09.240 energy and the

00:48:10.280 type in the mix,

00:48:11.560 even if that's all

00:48:12.640 true, it takes

00:48:14.180 years.

00:48:15.540 It takes years.

00:48:17.120 Do you think that's

00:48:17.900 in the inflation

00:48:18.520 number today?

00:48:23.080 Some of it

00:48:23.780 probably, but I

00:48:25.640 don't know how

00:48:25.980 much and neither

00:48:26.960 do you.

00:48:28.060 So let me say

00:48:29.140 this.

00:48:30.020 You are in a

00:48:30.740 heavy propaganda

00:48:31.720 topic.

00:48:35.060 I don't believe

00:48:36.160 there's anybody,

00:48:37.180 even the experts,

00:48:38.180 who quite

00:48:38.640 understand the

00:48:40.820 entire, I

00:48:44.240 want to use the

00:48:44.740 word, what's the

00:48:45.280 word from

00:48:45.660 accounting where

00:48:47.600 your income

00:48:50.740 statement is

00:48:52.000 articulated into

00:48:53.160 your balance

00:48:53.820 sheet.

00:48:55.180 What's the word

00:48:55.840 for that?

00:48:57.480 There's like a

00:48:58.180 term of art.

00:49:02.000 You know what I

00:49:02.800 mean.

00:49:05.120 Accrual, no.

00:49:07.440 Oh, there's not

00:49:09.100 reconciling.

00:49:10.220 It is

00:49:11.220 reconciling.

00:49:12.220 Well, damn it,

00:49:12.980 there's a cool

00:49:14.300 word that I wanted

00:49:15.060 to use there that

00:49:15.680 would have been

00:49:16.020 great.

00:49:17.600 Yeah, well,

00:49:18.400 whatever.

00:49:20.000 So nobody

00:49:21.020 understands this

00:49:21.740 topic.

00:49:22.160 So if you

00:49:22.600 imagine that

00:49:23.180 you do, then

00:49:23.900 you might be a

00:49:24.620 victim of

00:49:25.100 propaganda.

00:49:26.880 If you

00:49:27.480 imagine you

00:49:28.180 know that

00:49:29.340 Biden's

00:49:29.860 decisions changed

00:49:30.960 energy prices in

00:49:32.480 the short term,

00:49:33.700 I think we

00:49:34.380 could all agree

00:49:34.960 to change it in

00:49:35.620 the long term

00:49:36.220 because he's

00:49:37.420 trying to change

00:49:38.100 it in the long

00:49:38.700 term.

00:49:39.180 He said he

00:49:39.660 would, and he

00:49:40.640 did things that

00:49:41.160 would change it

00:49:41.660 in the long

00:49:42.100 term.

00:49:42.300 So if we

00:49:43.840 could all

00:49:44.240 agree on

00:49:44.640 the long

00:49:45.060 term, could

00:49:46.960 you still

00:49:47.380 agree with

00:49:47.860 the Democrat

00:49:48.340 argument that

00:49:49.080 you're not

00:49:49.420 seeing it

00:49:49.780 today, that's

00:49:51.340 not what's

00:49:51.680 happening today

00:49:52.380 because it

00:49:53.220 wouldn't affect

00:49:53.700 today.

00:49:56.960 I don't know.

00:49:57.500 It's a pretty

00:49:57.840 good argument.

00:50:00.800 Pew Research

00:50:01.860 said that 71%

00:50:04.640 of journalists

00:50:06.860 are concerned

00:50:07.480 about made-up

00:50:08.140 news.

00:50:08.560 71% of

00:50:10.580 the people

00:50:10.900 in the

00:50:11.560 business, the

00:50:12.600 journalists, are

00:50:14.060 concerned about

00:50:14.820 made-up news.

00:50:17.540 And that's

00:50:18.320 higher than the

00:50:19.040 50% of U.S.

00:50:20.180 adults who say

00:50:21.040 the same thing.

00:50:22.360 So if you're a

00:50:23.540 consumer of

00:50:24.280 news, half of

00:50:26.220 you are concerned

00:50:26.960 that the news is

00:50:27.780 fake.

00:50:28.760 If you're in the

00:50:29.900 business of

00:50:30.580 producing news,

00:50:32.420 71% of you are

00:50:34.080 concerned that it's

00:50:34.940 fake.

00:50:35.820 Who would be

00:50:36.580 better informed

00:50:37.440 about how much

00:50:38.340 of the news is

00:50:39.060 fake, the

00:50:40.060 people who

00:50:40.520 produce it or

00:50:41.840 the people who

00:50:42.420 consume it?

00:50:44.220 That's right.

00:50:45.240 The people who

00:50:45.920 produce the news

00:50:47.000 are way more

00:50:48.580 concerned about

00:50:49.280 how fake it

00:50:49.880 is.

00:50:51.020 Does that worry

00:50:51.680 you?

00:50:52.760 It should.

00:50:54.360 It should.

00:50:55.700 That should

00:50:56.120 worry you a lot.

00:50:57.360 The people who

00:50:58.040 know the most

00:50:58.840 about it think

00:51:00.380 it's worse than

00:51:01.020 you do.

00:51:02.460 The journalists

00:51:03.340 themselves.

00:51:04.860 Yep.

00:51:05.980 You should worry

00:51:06.460 about that.

00:51:08.340 Don't you

00:51:10.380 think it's

00:51:10.680 kind of hard

00:51:11.100 to fight

00:51:11.440 two wars

00:51:12.040 that are

00:51:12.500 like opposites?

00:51:15.140 So the

00:51:16.220 Biden

00:51:16.460 administration

00:51:16.920 is fighting

00:51:17.420 the war

00:51:17.960 between

00:51:18.860 Ukraine and

00:51:20.240 Russia.

00:51:20.800 So effectively

00:51:21.800 we're in that

00:51:22.440 war financially

00:51:23.180 anyway.

00:51:24.500 And we're

00:51:27.000 still fighting

00:51:27.840 a war against

00:51:28.440 the climate

00:51:29.000 or at least

00:51:30.240 the Democrats

00:51:30.940 are trying to

00:51:32.540 do that.

00:51:32.920 and the

00:51:34.120 trouble is

00:51:34.680 that to

00:51:35.400 fight the

00:51:36.020 Ukraine war

00:51:37.280 we want

00:51:41.260 to squeeze

00:51:42.160 Russia and

00:51:42.840 not use

00:51:43.340 their resources

00:51:44.300 but we

00:51:47.920 need those

00:51:48.380 resources.

00:51:49.800 So there

00:51:51.040 are too many

00:51:51.640 variables that

00:51:52.540 are working

00:51:54.100 opposite each

00:51:54.840 other.

00:51:55.720 So suddenly

00:51:56.660 Germany is

00:51:57.440 going to be

00:51:58.600 using much

00:51:59.220 more coal

00:51:59.940 because Russia

00:52:01.860 is going to

00:52:02.460 give them

00:52:02.820 less gas

00:52:03.600 because of

00:52:04.140 the war

00:52:04.560 blah blah.

00:52:05.840 So basically

00:52:06.660 the one war

00:52:07.660 makes it

00:52:08.100 impossible to

00:52:08.860 win the

00:52:09.780 other war.

00:52:11.320 As long as

00:52:12.220 we're doing

00:52:12.580 the Ukraine

00:52:13.140 thing we're

00:52:13.860 going to

00:52:14.360 lose the

00:52:14.900 climate war.

00:52:16.240 So do we

00:52:17.140 have to pick

00:52:17.620 the war?

00:52:19.960 Are we

00:52:20.400 trying to

00:52:21.220 fight too

00:52:21.560 many wars?

00:52:23.000 Sort of a

00:52:23.560 two front war

00:52:24.480 that makes it

00:52:25.760 impossible to

00:52:26.460 win on either

00:52:27.000 front.

00:52:27.400 I feel like

00:52:28.480 we have to

00:52:28.860 pick one.

00:52:30.380 Either win

00:52:31.160 Ukraine which

00:52:32.880 means go

00:52:33.640 crazy on

00:52:34.240 coal as

00:52:35.100 long as

00:52:35.440 it takes to

00:52:36.160 make Russia 0.62

00:52:36.840 irrelevant I

00:52:37.520 guess.

00:52:40.620 Or fight

00:52:41.540 the war on

00:52:42.020 the climate

00:52:42.380 and let

00:52:42.920 Ukraine go

00:52:43.820 to Russia

00:52:44.240 which is

00:52:44.720 what would

00:52:45.040 happen.

00:52:46.380 Here's an

00:52:46.840 interesting

00:52:47.160 take on

00:52:48.960 again you

00:52:50.040 can see

00:52:50.280 this in

00:52:50.560 my Twitter

00:52:50.900 feed.

00:52:53.500 That who

00:52:54.820 wins a

00:52:55.360 modern war

00:52:56.080 is who

00:52:56.740 has the

00:52:57.120 most

00:52:57.400 ammunition.

00:52:59.580 That's

00:53:00.060 about pretty

00:53:00.700 much all

00:53:01.020 there is

00:53:01.320 to it.

00:53:02.860 That a

00:53:03.260 modern war

00:53:03.980 between two

00:53:05.100 modernish

00:53:05.820 armies like

00:53:06.920 Ukraine and

00:53:08.000 Russia that 0.93

00:53:10.060 all that will

00:53:10.680 matter is who

00:53:11.260 has the most

00:53:11.680 ammunition because

00:53:12.480 they'll both

00:53:12.820 just keep

00:53:13.280 firing at

00:53:13.820 each other

00:53:14.200 until they're

00:53:14.640 out.

00:53:16.220 And I

00:53:16.860 thought that

00:53:18.160 might be the

00:53:19.000 simplest explanation

00:53:20.020 of how to

00:53:20.820 predict how

00:53:21.320 this ends.

00:53:22.820 But here's the

00:53:23.780 bad news if

00:53:24.480 you like

00:53:24.780 Ukraine.

00:53:26.080 Apparently

00:53:26.500 Russia has 0.96

00:53:27.540 really really

00:53:28.360 good resources

00:53:29.280 for creating

00:53:31.020 ammunition as

00:53:32.020 they need it.

00:53:33.340 So they had a

00:53:34.220 lot to begin

00:53:34.760 with but they

00:53:36.000 can also make

00:53:36.700 it as they

00:53:37.160 need it.

00:53:39.160 The West

00:53:40.020 apparently has

00:53:41.200 enough for a

00:53:41.720 few days and

00:53:43.220 then no ability

00:53:44.000 to make it.

00:53:45.580 So the West

00:53:46.380 doesn't even have

00:53:46.960 the ability to

00:53:47.600 fight a war.

00:53:48.480 We would just

00:53:49.000 run out of

00:53:49.480 ammunition.

00:53:50.880 Now that's not

00:53:51.640 as big a deal

00:53:52.500 if you're the

00:53:53.040 United States

00:53:53.740 because you

00:53:54.160 have nuclear

00:53:55.080 powered submarines

00:53:56.060 so nobody's

00:53:58.840 going to attack

00:53:59.260 the homeland

00:53:59.740 of a nuclear

00:54:00.680 powered country

00:54:01.720 with the

00:54:02.340 Second Amendment.

00:54:03.600 But if we

00:54:05.840 got into a

00:54:06.460 traditional war

00:54:07.320 with Russia

00:54:07.940 we would run

00:54:09.200 out of

00:54:09.480 ammunition.

00:54:11.120 So unless

00:54:11.500 we somehow

00:54:12.340 won right away

00:54:13.400 we would just

00:54:14.580 run out of

00:54:15.120 artillery.

00:54:17.400 So if you

00:54:18.680 have a war

00:54:19.120 that lasts a

00:54:19.920 long time

00:54:20.460 all that matters

00:54:21.140 is your

00:54:21.500 manufacturing

00:54:22.060 capacity.

00:54:23.900 And we're

00:54:24.500 in a war

00:54:24.880 that lasts

00:54:25.340 a long time.

00:54:26.280 So that would

00:54:26.620 tell you that

00:54:27.020 Russia is just 0.99

00:54:27.900 going to chew

00:54:28.360 up Ukraine

00:54:29.060 at its leisure

00:54:31.500 and nothing

00:54:32.740 would stop it.

00:54:34.420 And I think

00:54:34.800 that's the way

00:54:35.880 it looks.

00:54:36.320 If you were to

00:54:36.880 straight line it

00:54:37.700 and nothing

00:54:38.100 changed that's

00:54:38.860 what it looks

00:54:39.240 like.

00:54:39.880 But of course

00:54:40.440 there are always

00:54:41.820 surprises.

00:54:42.700 So you can't

00:54:43.060 straight line

00:54:43.520 anything.

00:54:45.560 Here's something

00:54:46.360 interesting.

00:54:48.520 My live stream

00:54:49.680 from the other

00:54:50.440 day was

00:54:51.720 turned into

00:54:52.220 a transcript

00:54:52.820 on real

00:54:53.920 clear politics

00:54:54.860 and then

00:54:56.260 it got

00:54:56.680 tweeted

00:54:56.960 around.

00:54:57.940 Now when

00:54:58.220 you change

00:54:58.700 this form

00:54:59.380 the spoken

00:55:00.100 form into

00:55:00.740 a transcript

00:55:01.340 sometimes it

00:55:03.060 makes it

00:55:03.360 more powerful

00:55:03.860 because people

00:55:04.440 prefer consuming

00:55:06.160 stuff that way.

00:55:07.700 And so it

00:55:08.200 took my

00:55:08.920 relatively

00:55:10.060 inert idea

00:55:11.280 about having

00:55:12.680 Trump not

00:55:13.520 run for

00:55:13.920 president

00:55:14.280 but create

00:55:16.140 a news

00:55:16.820 platform that

00:55:17.700 would have

00:55:18.020 honest debate

00:55:18.860 on topics

00:55:19.580 but more

00:55:20.580 interesting

00:55:21.020 on its

00:55:21.420 debates

00:55:21.780 and basically

00:55:23.020 control the

00:55:23.840 world through

00:55:24.420 controlling the

00:55:25.220 news because

00:55:26.700 somebody needs

00:55:27.320 to do it.

00:55:28.740 And that

00:55:29.220 idea was

00:55:29.740 strong enough

00:55:30.640 that somebody

00:55:32.620 turned it

00:55:33.340 into a

00:55:34.100 transcript and

00:55:35.260 then people

00:55:35.900 liked it more

00:55:36.580 and they're

00:55:36.900 tweeting around.

00:55:37.960 Now the

00:55:38.980 moral of the

00:55:39.880 story there's

00:55:40.320 a higher level

00:55:41.960 than the story

00:55:42.560 itself is that

00:55:43.860 the person who

00:55:45.900 writes something

00:55:46.560 down is the

00:55:48.060 most influential.

00:55:49.580 is one of the

00:55:50.680 most consistent

00:55:51.640 things you could

00:55:53.160 say.

00:55:53.780 The person who

00:55:54.660 writes something

00:55:55.420 down and is

00:55:57.080 good at it has

00:55:58.580 just tons of

00:55:59.300 influence.

00:56:00.540 So speech

00:56:01.080 writers actually

00:56:01.720 have a ton of

00:56:02.500 influence over

00:56:03.460 policy because

00:56:05.500 the speech

00:56:05.960 writer writes

00:56:06.540 it and then

00:56:07.220 the politician

00:56:08.480 says yeah that

00:56:09.180 would sound

00:56:09.540 really good

00:56:10.000 coming out of

00:56:10.500 my mouth and

00:56:11.620 then it just

00:56:12.040 sort of turns

00:56:12.540 into their

00:56:13.160 theme.

00:56:13.760 so we

00:56:17.020 see here that

00:56:17.840 taking my

00:56:18.740 inert spoken

00:56:20.240 word and

00:56:20.760 turning it into

00:56:21.320 a written

00:56:21.620 transcript made

00:56:22.520 it actually

00:56:22.940 pretty powerful

00:56:23.700 and now you

00:56:24.660 see people

00:56:25.100 weighing in

00:56:25.800 and it's

00:56:27.360 I haven't

00:56:29.020 seen much

00:56:29.440 pushback.

00:56:30.520 It's probably

00:56:31.080 one of the

00:56:31.760 most popular

00:56:32.560 ideas that

00:56:33.960 I've ever

00:56:34.360 expressed.

00:56:36.940 So take a

00:56:38.060 look at it if

00:56:38.600 you haven't

00:56:38.860 seen it yet.

00:56:39.280 So here's

00:56:46.780 another tip

00:56:48.580 along those

00:56:49.320 lines.

00:56:49.900 So Derek

00:56:50.400 Sivers,

00:56:51.680 S-I-V-E-R-S, 1.00

00:56:53.580 Sivers or

00:56:54.340 Sivers, I

00:56:55.060 don't know,

00:56:56.220 he suggests

00:56:57.220 this writing

00:56:58.320 tip and I'm

00:56:59.360 going to

00:57:00.040 echo his

00:57:00.820 recommendation

00:57:01.520 that you

00:57:03.100 write one

00:57:03.820 sentence per

00:57:04.580 line just

00:57:06.180 for yourself

00:57:06.760 when you're

00:57:07.260 starting to

00:57:07.760 write something

00:57:08.300 longer.

00:57:09.900 One sentence

00:57:10.900 per line.

00:57:11.680 Now you

00:57:11.880 say to

00:57:12.120 yourself,

00:57:13.300 well what's

00:57:13.780 the difference

00:57:14.180 between that

00:57:15.020 and just

00:57:15.460 putting it

00:57:15.880 in the

00:57:16.120 paragraph where

00:57:16.820 it belongs?

00:57:18.380 And he

00:57:19.280 tells you

00:57:20.560 this, if

00:57:21.700 you write

00:57:22.000 every sentence

00:57:22.620 by itself,

00:57:24.420 you don't

00:57:25.100 get to hide

00:57:25.700 it with the

00:57:26.200 other sentences.

00:57:27.700 Because sometimes

00:57:28.200 you can put a

00:57:28.900 weak sentence

00:57:29.440 in the middle

00:57:30.020 of a paragraph

00:57:30.600 and your

00:57:32.520 brain will

00:57:33.160 sort of skip

00:57:33.740 over it

00:57:34.360 because the

00:57:35.160 other ones

00:57:35.560 have more

00:57:36.120 impact.

00:57:36.980 But if

00:57:37.380 you're forced

00:57:37.880 to write

00:57:38.240 every sentence

00:57:38.900 on its

00:57:39.280 own line

00:57:39.800 and look

00:57:40.160 at it,

00:57:40.800 you can

00:57:41.200 much more

00:57:41.600 easily say,

00:57:42.780 you know

00:57:43.080 what, I

00:57:44.160 didn't even

00:57:44.500 need to

00:57:44.780 say that

00:57:45.340 because the

00:57:46.440 other sentences

00:57:47.340 basically covered it.

00:57:48.940 The other thing

00:57:49.720 is that when you

00:57:50.260 put them on

00:57:50.660 their own line,

00:57:51.420 you can more

00:57:51.840 easily pick out

00:57:52.840 the first word

00:57:53.720 in the sentence

00:57:54.340 than the last

00:57:55.160 text, because

00:57:55.960 those have more

00:57:56.560 impact.

00:57:58.800 So, and

00:58:00.740 those are

00:58:01.040 just, you

00:58:01.520 know, and

00:58:02.060 then also you

00:58:02.920 can look at

00:58:03.380 the sentence

00:58:03.920 length, because

00:58:05.600 you want

00:58:05.900 sentence lengths

00:58:06.660 that, you

00:58:07.440 know, are

00:58:07.800 variable, but

00:58:09.240 not beyond a

00:58:10.320 certain too

00:58:11.080 long point,

00:58:12.380 right?

00:58:13.080 You can't be

00:58:13.840 too short

00:58:14.480 with a sentence,

00:58:16.060 that's impossible,

00:58:16.780 you can't be

00:58:17.180 too short.

00:58:17.780 One word could

00:58:18.360 be a sentence

00:58:19.240 if you're trying

00:58:20.240 to communicate.

00:58:20.900 But you

00:58:22.040 could be too

00:58:22.540 long.

00:58:23.780 So these are

00:58:24.540 the things that

00:58:24.900 you more easily

00:58:25.480 see if you

00:58:25.960 just break out

00:58:26.540 the one

00:58:26.900 sentence, you 0.80

00:58:27.560 can see it's

00:58:27.980 length compared

00:58:28.660 to the others,

00:58:30.200 and some

00:58:30.660 variety.

00:58:32.020 Some of you

00:58:32.300 says why.

00:58:33.000 You don't

00:58:33.320 want a long

00:58:33.800 sentence because

00:58:34.420 the brains

00:58:35.180 are not good

00:58:35.780 at following a

00:58:36.540 long sentence.

00:58:37.700 But there's

00:58:38.260 no such thing

00:58:38.920 as too short,

00:58:40.340 because there

00:58:41.360 are times when

00:58:42.140 one word is

00:58:44.340 all you needed.

00:58:46.120 And even

00:58:46.740 though one

00:58:47.120 word is not

00:58:47.640 a sentence,

00:58:48.500 often people

00:58:50.220 know what you

00:58:50.680 mean.

00:58:50.900 so that's

00:58:51.340 all you

00:58:51.540 need.

00:58:57.760 I'm going

00:58:58.320 to get rid

00:58:58.840 of you.

00:59:00.860 All right.

00:59:02.500 So that's

00:59:03.260 your writing

00:59:03.640 tip for the

00:59:04.100 day.

00:59:06.000 And that,

00:59:08.380 ladies and 0.98

00:59:08.680 gentlemen,

00:59:09.360 looks to be

00:59:10.120 everything I

00:59:10.940 wanted to

00:59:11.280 talk about

00:59:11.760 amazingly.

00:59:14.600 And I

00:59:15.160 don't know,

00:59:16.800 am I wrong

00:59:18.060 or is this

00:59:19.980 the best

00:59:21.700 live stream

00:59:22.180 you've ever

00:59:22.540 seen in

00:59:23.040 the whole

00:59:23.720 world?

00:59:25.040 The other

00:59:25.720 thing I'm

00:59:26.080 going to

00:59:26.320 predict is

00:59:27.240 if, so

00:59:28.340 yesterday I

00:59:29.120 took a ride

00:59:29.700 on an

00:59:30.220 electric scooter.

00:59:31.680 scooter, how

00:59:32.760 many of you

00:59:33.400 have tried an

00:59:34.700 electric scooter,

00:59:35.760 especially a

00:59:36.320 high-end one?

00:59:37.120 This was 500

00:59:38.020 watts.

00:59:40.040 Number one,

00:59:40.780 it did every

00:59:41.600 hill without a

00:59:43.600 problem.

00:59:44.880 Now, I'm

00:59:45.760 not a hugely

00:59:47.260 gigantic human,

00:59:49.320 so it wasn't a

00:59:50.760 problem for me.

00:59:51.320 Suppose if you

00:59:51.860 were 300 pounds,

00:59:52.660 it would be a

00:59:52.940 problem.

00:59:54.120 But have

00:59:54.880 you read or

00:59:57.120 tried an

00:59:57.720 electric scooter?

00:59:59.120 They are so

00:59:59.900 fun.

01:00:00.720 Somebody says,

01:00:01.320 I hurt myself.

01:00:02.400 Yeah, they're

01:00:02.780 really dangerous.

01:00:04.440 They're super

01:00:04.960 dangerous.

01:00:06.580 The whole time

01:00:07.480 you're on it,

01:00:07.980 you're pretty sure

01:00:08.500 you're going to

01:00:08.920 die, because

01:00:10.680 they get wobbly

01:00:11.680 pretty easily.

01:00:13.660 But there's

01:00:14.540 also a pretty

01:00:15.360 fast learning

01:00:16.080 curve.

01:00:17.300 So, here's

01:00:19.780 the thing.

01:00:20.140 if you spend

01:00:22.040 a minute on

01:00:22.640 an electric

01:00:23.140 bike or

01:00:23.860 an electric

01:00:24.220 scooter, you

01:00:25.600 will know it's

01:00:26.180 the future.

01:00:27.640 Now, I took

01:00:28.160 a ride yesterday

01:00:29.260 on my bike.

01:00:30.660 I wonder if I

01:00:31.120 could show you

01:00:31.540 this.

01:00:33.160 I know it's

01:00:33.780 terrible holding

01:00:35.080 something up to

01:00:35.780 the camera here,

01:00:37.500 but I believe

01:00:38.880 I can show you

01:00:40.220 this.

01:00:44.560 So, where I

01:00:45.420 live, there

01:00:47.520 are miles and

01:00:48.400 miles of

01:00:50.120 bicycle-only,

01:00:52.840 or mostly

01:00:53.500 bicycle, roads.

01:00:55.880 So, this is a

01:00:56.900 long road through

01:00:58.080 wine country in

01:00:59.160 Livermore, California,

01:01:00.520 in which there's

01:01:02.180 no cars.

01:01:03.480 This is just for

01:01:04.160 bikes or whatever.

01:01:05.540 And you can have

01:01:06.840 the best, like,

01:01:08.800 just amazing,

01:01:10.220 like, scenery.

01:01:12.200 You can ride for

01:01:13.000 miles, and that's

01:01:14.060 an electric bike.

01:01:15.380 That's an electric

01:01:16.180 mountain bike.

01:01:18.760 And the hills

01:01:21.360 just disappear.

01:01:22.800 Now, you ask

01:01:23.520 yourself, do you

01:01:24.140 still get exercise?

01:01:25.180 And the answer

01:01:25.500 is yes.

01:01:26.800 Yes, a lot.

01:01:28.100 Because, you know,

01:01:28.900 you can turn down

01:01:29.700 the boost, the

01:01:31.400 assist.

01:01:32.460 So, whenever I

01:01:33.360 want to just, you

01:01:34.840 know, work a little

01:01:35.500 harder, I just

01:01:36.740 turn down the

01:01:37.820 boost.

01:01:38.580 And when I want

01:01:39.900 to, you know,

01:01:40.720 level off a hill,

01:01:42.340 because I just

01:01:42.820 don't feel like it,

01:01:44.040 I just turn up the

01:01:45.360 boost.

01:01:45.620 Now, once you

01:01:47.860 see how wonderful

01:01:49.200 it is to travel

01:01:50.740 this way, you

01:01:52.640 can imagine a

01:01:53.420 town in which

01:01:54.820 everything is

01:01:55.660 connected by,

01:01:56.660 let's say,

01:01:57.820 hilly little,

01:01:58.840 very interesting,

01:02:00.000 winding, tree-covered

01:02:02.940 streets that are

01:02:03.780 just for bikes and

01:02:04.700 electric vehicles.

01:02:05.520 And you can

01:02:08.680 imagine that

01:02:10.160 almost like a

01:02:11.740 hobbit city using

01:02:13.280 these ADUs or

01:02:14.620 these little boxable

01:02:15.840 instant houses that

01:02:18.060 you take off a

01:02:19.100 truck and you

01:02:20.140 unfold it, and

01:02:21.300 it's like a total

01:02:22.200 house for one

01:02:22.880 person.

01:02:23.860 You slap on a

01:02:25.200 solar wall,

01:02:27.160 solar, you know,

01:02:28.040 like a Tesla

01:02:28.700 battery.

01:02:30.200 You can make

01:02:30.940 these little

01:02:31.440 things off the

01:02:32.960 grid for the most

01:02:34.680 part.

01:02:34.880 I guess you

01:02:35.280 need sewage or

01:02:35.900 something.

01:02:36.740 But you can get

01:02:37.300 them mostly off

01:02:37.900 the grid, and

01:02:39.760 there's now a

01:02:42.840 technology where

01:02:43.580 you can suck 0.96

01:02:44.200 water out of the

01:02:45.240 air enough to

01:02:46.620 actually run your

01:02:47.680 home.

01:02:48.800 So we're at a

01:02:49.980 point where

01:02:50.480 building an

01:02:51.640 amazing village

01:02:53.600 from scratch,

01:02:54.820 where you're not

01:02:56.060 looking at your

01:02:56.640 neighbor, but he's

01:02:58.200 just over the

01:02:59.080 little tree-lined

01:03:01.080 hill.

01:03:02.020 And if you want to

01:03:02.620 go anywhere to

01:03:03.400 buy some

01:03:03.800 groceries or

01:03:04.400 something, you

01:03:05.240 jump on your

01:03:05.800 scooter, and

01:03:07.060 the path itself

01:03:09.620 is really fun.

01:03:12.740 You've had this

01:03:13.520 experience, right?

01:03:14.580 Sometimes going

01:03:15.360 someplace is fun if

01:03:16.740 the actual

01:03:17.220 destination path is

01:03:19.940 just really

01:03:20.480 interesting to look

01:03:21.320 at.

01:03:21.540 You don't mind

01:03:21.940 the ride at all.

01:03:23.000 So imagine making

01:03:23.820 all of your

01:03:24.280 transportation fun

01:03:25.480 and easy.

01:03:26.320 It would change

01:03:28.280 everything about

01:03:28.860 your experience.

01:03:29.820 Imagine your

01:03:30.440 delivery service

01:03:31.380 all by electric

01:03:32.620 vehicle, so that

01:03:34.720 there's so many

01:03:35.440 people delivering

01:03:36.300 all the time, that

01:03:38.460 the cost of getting

01:03:39.320 a sandwich drops

01:03:41.060 way down, because

01:03:42.140 there's always an

01:03:42.740 electric bike going

01:03:43.880 right past the

01:03:44.680 sandwich place to

01:03:46.380 your home.

01:03:47.700 And if you're on

01:03:48.300 an electric bike, it

01:03:49.080 costs you practically

01:03:49.800 nothing.

01:03:50.320 You just drive by,

01:03:51.140 hey, grab the

01:03:51.840 sandwich, drop it

01:03:53.240 in your mailbox,

01:03:54.160 boom.

01:03:54.380 So if you were

01:03:56.800 to build a home, a

01:03:58.020 community from

01:03:58.780 scratch, you could

01:04:00.560 do it at 10% of

01:04:01.740 the cost of current

01:04:02.760 living, and it

01:04:04.120 would be so much

01:04:05.240 better.

01:04:06.120 Just the lifestyle,

01:04:07.600 everything about it

01:04:08.500 would be better.

01:04:12.640 Where is this

01:04:13.500 magic place?

01:04:14.400 It's a place that

01:04:15.240 you could build

01:04:16.200 right now with

01:04:17.200 current technology.

01:04:18.860 So that's my

01:04:19.440 prediction about

01:04:20.100 where housing is

01:04:21.580 going.

01:04:22.080 It's going to be

01:04:22.680 start from scratch,

01:04:24.380 build a community

01:04:25.460 and make it

01:04:27.760 electric bike

01:04:28.440 connections, or

01:04:29.740 electric vehicles.

01:04:30.900 It could be

01:04:31.200 carts or any

01:04:32.900 kind of thing.

01:04:34.560 And off the

01:04:36.940 grid as much

01:04:37.540 as possible.

01:04:38.660 To protect the

01:04:39.600 homeland, by the

01:04:40.380 way.

01:04:40.900 Because you don't

01:04:41.500 want people to be

01:04:42.420 too vulnerable to

01:04:43.560 the grid, so you

01:04:45.060 want to get as

01:04:45.640 many Americans as

01:04:46.620 you can off the

01:04:47.380 grid entirely, so

01:04:49.120 they could withstand

01:04:50.120 a grid attack.

01:04:52.200 And there you

01:04:52.860 go.

01:04:53.040 Now, is that

01:04:54.660 optimistic enough?

01:04:57.240 Did you notice

01:04:58.020 today it was all

01:04:58.800 the optimistic

01:04:59.520 stuff?

01:05:00.560 Did it make you

01:05:01.080 feel better?

01:05:02.940 It should.

01:05:04.320 It should.

01:05:05.540 It's going to

01:05:06.040 make you feel

01:05:06.440 great.

01:05:08.100 In fact, you

01:05:10.160 want to take this

01:05:10.840 good feeling with

01:05:11.560 you into the

01:05:13.140 day.

01:05:15.020 Don't watch the

01:05:15.780 news today,

01:05:16.340 maybe.

01:05:17.180 You don't want to

01:05:17.980 blow it.

01:05:19.240 If you've got that

01:05:19.960 good feeling, just

01:05:22.140 take it forward.

01:05:23.620 And remember, you

01:05:24.360 are the authors of

01:05:25.300 your simulation, so

01:05:27.760 I have a request on

01:05:30.400 the locals platform

01:05:31.620 for a closing sip.

01:05:34.320 It's very rare, but

01:05:35.520 today, you're going

01:05:37.020 to get it.

01:05:37.940 The closing sip for

01:05:39.120 the simultaneous sip.

01:05:40.920 Here it comes.

01:05:41.420 So good.

01:05:49.380 See you later,

01:05:50.240 YouTubers. 0.92

01:05:50.500 YouTubers. 0.92

01:05:52.900 .

01:05:56.980 .

01:05:57.040 .

01:06:08.860 .

01:06:09.080 .

01:06:09.360 .

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 20, 2022

Episode 1780 Scott Adams： The News Is Crazy Today. Come Enjoy The Absurdity With A Beverage

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