Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1796 Scott Adams： What To Do With All Of The Dangerous Teens

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:04.920 And it's going to be a barn burner today, so protect your barn.

00:00:09.820 If you don't have a barn, you probably won't even notice the difference.

00:00:13.080 It will be the highlight of civilization no matter what.

00:00:16.880 And would you like to take it up at an even higher level?

00:00:20.540 Yes, you would.

00:00:21.940 And don't worry that some of my sentences leave out key words.

00:00:25.920 When I realize I've left down a word in my sentence, I just keep going.

00:00:30.000 I hope you don't notice.

00:00:31.820 Yes, we're going to talk about Dr. Carlson.

00:00:34.000 But first, all we need is a cup or mug or a glass, a tanker, a chalice, a stein, a canteen, a jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind,

00:00:40.020 filling with your favorite liquid I like, coffee.

00:00:43.020 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:47.120 It's the dopamine of the day.

00:00:49.220 It's the thing that makes everything feel better.

00:00:51.960 It's called the simultaneous sip. Go.

00:00:53.820 Just in, the European Parliament backs listing nuclear energy as green.

00:01:08.220 Boo-yay.

00:01:11.640 Well, the winning just keeps on coming.

00:01:14.560 It's one win after another.

00:01:15.800 I feel like some good stuff's about to happen.

00:01:23.500 I do.

00:01:24.680 And today I'm going to make you feel good about the good stuff that's going to happen.

00:01:29.760 And it all revolves around a little thing I like to call the Adam's Law of slow-moving disasters.

00:01:37.880 Because, as you know, we're in the middle of five, I don't know, I'd have to count them up.

00:01:45.620 Are we in the middle of five slow-moving disasters at the same time?

00:01:50.240 We are, aren't we?

00:01:50.940 You know, the pandemic was a fast disaster.

00:01:54.560 That really caught us off guard.

00:01:57.080 But the slow ones, right, so we've got the economy, the inflation, you know, maybe recession, maybe inflation.

00:02:04.760 We've got a supply chain problem.

00:02:07.280 Is it going to be nuclear war?

00:02:08.900 I don't know.

00:02:11.420 We've got a lot of problems, but we'll get through them.

00:02:14.440 All right.

00:02:15.620 Here is the biggest non-surprise in the world.

00:02:18.440 Why is it that medical science always follows the direction of greatest profitability for people who work in the medical sciences community?

00:02:32.860 Is that a coincidence?

00:02:34.740 That no matter when they do a study, the result will always be that somebody gets to make more money, if it's true.

00:02:42.100 Well, here's one.

00:02:43.680 Well, apparently, the more you get COVID, the worse your permanent problems are.

00:02:51.020 So the so-called long COVID.

00:02:52.940 So if you get this Omicron once, some number of people get long-term, long COVID problems.

00:02:59.920 But if the same person gets COVID twice, apparently, statistically, they're more likely to have long-term problems.

00:03:07.300 And if they get it three times, even more than twice.

00:03:10.600 So since you've got, like, the two levels that you can measure, it seems kind of convincing, right?

00:03:18.440 That at each new infection, your long-term problems increase, and that's what the study says.

00:03:24.320 So does that show you that the more you get Omicron, the more problems you have?

00:03:28.600 Is that what they proved?

00:03:31.300 If you hear that, that's the result.

00:03:33.840 Is that what they proved?

00:03:34.780 Well, here's the question.

00:03:38.680 Why is it that something like, and maybe this number has changed, 15% of spouses gave it to their spouse?

00:03:46.680 Like 1-5?

00:03:48.320 Now, it might be, you know, 25%, but it's the same point.

00:03:52.180 How do you not give Omicron to your spouse?

00:03:56.200 I mean, really, if you're most infectious before you know you have symptoms,

00:04:00.640 doesn't every spouse get it? 1.00

00:04:05.120 I mean, who spends so much time away from their spouse that they can't give them COVID?

00:04:11.620 I mean, does anybody?

00:04:13.060 It's hard to imagine.

00:04:14.360 I would think that every household, everybody would get it, right?

00:04:17.900 But it didn't happen.

00:04:18.840 It didn't even come close to that.

00:04:20.560 So there's some gigantic variable about the pandemic and about COVID that we still don't understand, right?

00:04:27.780 And the one we don't understand is bigger than all the ones we do, right?

00:04:34.440 The things we understand about COVID, if you put them all together, everything we understand,

00:04:40.540 is still smaller than the thing we don't understand, which is, why doesn't the spouse get it?

00:04:47.500 That's the biggest question. 0.99

00:04:49.200 We don't have a fucking clue. 0.99

00:04:51.520 Here's my guess. 0.99

00:04:52.560 So this is my non-medical, non-scientist, non-reliable guess.

00:04:58.740 So I wouldn't put too much into this.

00:05:01.880 It's less than a hypothesis, but it goes like this.

00:05:05.620 And of course, it springs from the worst possible place, my personal anecdotal experience.

00:05:11.880 So let me make a global scientific proclamation that affects all of you,

00:05:18.300 all 7 billion of you, based on my one experience.

00:05:20.780 It goes like this.

00:05:23.280 I got COVID the one time I was completely aware that my immunity was very low.

00:05:32.000 In other words, it was a period where I was traveling, I went to Hawaii,

00:05:35.680 and I was really sleepless because of the time change and stuff.

00:05:38.800 And I was completely aware that my ability to fight off anything was real down.

00:05:46.580 Now, wouldn't that explain everything?

00:05:48.100 Wouldn't it?

00:05:51.480 Everything that's still a mystery would be explained by just that one fact,

00:05:56.820 that you can't get it unless your immune system's been whacked.

00:06:00.380 Right?

00:06:00.860 Because that would explain how one spouse could get it,

00:06:03.580 because they had a bad week, lost some sleep, whatever, stress,

00:06:07.300 and the other one didn't.

00:06:09.200 Now, some of you are saying vitamin D, and there's definitely a correlation,

00:06:12.300 but not the correlation that you think.

00:06:14.480 There are two correlations.

00:06:15.540 One is that people who are naturally unhealthy also have low vitamin D.

00:06:20.800 So if you find that only the people with low vitamin D get it,

00:06:24.380 you might not be finding out something about vitamin D.

00:06:27.580 You have to be careful about that one.

00:06:29.280 You might be finding out that vitamin D is just a signal

00:06:32.800 for somebody who, in general, has a low immunity.

00:06:35.260 So I feel like low immunity on any given day is what gives you COVID.

00:06:43.060 I don't know.

00:06:43.600 That's just based on one anecdotal experience

00:06:45.980 and then generalizing it to the world.

00:06:48.420 The only reason I would hang anything on that

00:06:50.420 is that it answers all the questions.

00:06:53.080 Everything that's still a mystery would be answered by that one thing.

00:06:57.560 If your immunity is good, you just don't get it.

00:06:59.860 But that's it.

00:07:02.380 But there may be lots of other reasons for that, but just a guess.

00:07:10.120 I also will take you back to why is it that every study is good for somebody's income,

00:07:16.500 but not yours?

00:07:17.980 Suppose it's true that every time you get an Omicron infection,

00:07:22.700 it makes your long-term prognosis worse.

00:07:26.160 Who would make money from that? 0.95

00:07:28.140 Huh. Huh.

00:07:29.620 Could it be whoever's coming up with the next vaccination

00:07:32.380 for this next Omicron strain?

00:07:36.060 Yes.

00:07:37.300 There is an entity that will make billions of dollars if this is true.

00:07:42.060 Because if it's not true,

00:07:43.480 people are going to treat it like the common cold

00:07:45.240 and they're not going to get vaccinated.

00:07:46.960 But if it's true that you're going to deal with a lot more

00:07:50.600 than a few days of isolation and some aches and pains,

00:07:54.060 then you'd better get that vaccination, huh?

00:07:57.400 So, big coincidence.

00:07:59.500 There was a major study that somehow was compatible and agreed with

00:08:04.240 the entities that would make the most money if it were true.

00:08:08.380 Huh.

00:08:09.780 Now, it doesn't mean it's not true.

00:08:12.280 It just means you can't trust it whatsoever.

00:08:14.680 It doesn't mean it's not true.

00:08:16.880 It means it's not credible.

00:08:18.560 Any time something coincidentally lines up with exactly where you would have guessed

00:08:23.700 before they did the study,

00:08:25.500 huh, I wonder where this will end up, this study.

00:08:29.380 Well, who would make the most money under what situation?

00:08:33.140 Well, the most money would be made by the pharmaceutical companies

00:08:36.040 if it turns out that the more you get Omicron, the worse off you are, 0.99

00:08:39.640 given that we know they can come up with some kind of bullshit vaccine for it. 0.99

00:08:42.960 So, there you go. 0.98

00:08:46.060 You could have predicted the end of that study

00:08:47.800 without any scientific background whatsoever

00:08:50.700 because you just follow the money.

00:08:53.420 It just keeps working.

00:08:55.640 I'll challenge you.

00:08:56.820 Find me a place that didn't work recently.

00:08:59.340 Give me an obvious case, something we've all heard of,

00:09:02.660 some headline situation,

00:09:04.360 in which knowing who made money didn't work

00:09:07.860 and didn't explain the situation.

00:09:10.820 You can't find it.

00:09:11.580 Sometimes it's coincidence, maybe,

00:09:14.540 but it's a pretty big one.

00:09:16.480 It's a pretty big one.

00:09:18.480 Well, there's news that Joe Rogan said

00:09:21.240 that he doesn't want to interview Trump

00:09:22.920 because he doesn't want to help him get elected.

00:09:26.320 He says directly he's not a Trump supporter

00:09:29.060 and don't want to help him by having him on the show, basically.

00:09:33.560 Now, how important is that?

00:09:35.780 How important is it if Joe Rogan does not want Trump to run for president?

00:09:40.460 Now, he did indicate that if it came down to Trump versus Biden,

00:09:45.820 that Biden is basically brain dead, 0.86

00:09:47.840 and then it gets complicated.

00:09:50.420 But if I interpret Rogan correctly,

00:09:53.660 he doesn't want Trump to even be in the race.

00:09:56.220 But if he were in the race,

00:09:58.160 well, then the decision gets complicated.

00:09:59.800 So he didn't really tell you what he would do if he were in the race.

00:10:05.160 How much difference do you think it makes

00:10:07.420 that Joe Rogan is not supporting Trump?

00:10:11.880 In the comments, you tell me.

00:10:13.880 You know, we've made a big deal

00:10:14.980 that Joe Rogan is sort of a kingmaker.

00:10:18.100 You know, he can make or break stories.

00:10:19.460 A lot of you say none.

00:10:24.140 But some say a little.

00:10:26.500 Some say a lot.

00:10:29.160 He supported Bernie last time.

00:10:31.680 So actually, most people are thinking none.

00:10:33.680 Interesting.

00:10:34.580 So have we decided that Joe Rogan is like the master of media,

00:10:39.780 which he sort of is at this point,

00:10:41.660 but yet he's not a kingmaker?

00:10:44.060 Are you telling me that Joe Rogan has all this influence,

00:10:46.800 like the biggest podcast, everybody talks about him,

00:10:50.480 and, you know, all we care about is what did his guest

00:10:53.180 or what did he say about a topic?

00:10:56.260 And yet all of that, all that attention we give him,

00:10:58.720 and you're telling me it would make no difference to the election?

00:11:02.320 It's a bold, that's sort of a bold opinion.

00:11:05.720 You might be right, by the way.

00:11:07.120 I'm not going to disagree with you.

00:11:09.180 You might be right.

00:11:10.600 You might be right.

00:11:11.920 All right, let me throw in a little more.

00:11:13.920 Now, let's say that Mike Cernovich also is anti-Trump.

00:11:21.540 Now, so far, that seems to be his position.

00:11:23.660 I hate to characterize anybody who's that smart

00:11:27.380 because you always get it wrong.

00:11:29.160 You know, there's always a nuance you might miss.

00:11:31.160 But my understanding is that Mike Cernovich

00:11:33.440 would not be supporting Trump.

00:11:35.480 Now, again, I don't know what that means

00:11:37.380 if Trump gets the nomination.

00:11:39.680 You know, I'm not sure what that does to anybody's opinion.

00:11:44.540 Might change it, I don't know.

00:11:46.580 But do you think that Cernovich's opinion

00:11:50.100 would change an election?

00:11:53.180 Suppose you added Cernovich and Rogan together.

00:11:57.960 Do you think that the two of them would be persuasive enough

00:12:00.540 to keep Trump out of the election?

00:12:04.620 Almost all say no.

00:12:06.200 Almost all say no.

00:12:07.460 All right, I'm going to add a third persuader.

00:12:13.420 Do you have a suggestion?

00:12:14.600 Who would be the third person to add to this?

00:12:17.300 If those two together don't make a difference,

00:12:20.500 all right, well, throw me in the mix.

00:12:23.080 It is my opinion that Trump should not run for re-election.

00:12:27.420 That's my opinion.

00:12:28.840 Have I ever said that directly?

00:12:31.320 Give me a fact check.

00:12:32.460 Have I ever said that directly?

00:12:33.640 That's my opinion.

00:12:35.960 Trump should not run.

00:12:38.340 Okay, I guess I have.

00:12:39.440 Now, my opinion is really based on age

00:12:41.260 and based on we don't need a repeat of the trouble

00:12:46.960 that we got last time.

00:12:48.240 And the fact that there's an alternative.

00:12:52.200 If you couldn't get, if you could not get Trump-like effectiveness

00:12:58.020 in any other way, 0.96

00:13:01.660 then I'd say, well, darn it, you have to consider it. 0.97

00:13:05.840 Well, you can't, right? 0.98

00:13:07.240 The Republicans now have formed a, let's say, a character, if you will,

00:13:13.140 that is so influenced by Trump,

00:13:14.840 it's sort of Trump's party at this point.

00:13:17.300 DeSantis would always be looked at as a,

00:13:20.840 let's say, a Trump-influenced person.

00:13:24.180 I mean, they might say worse than that,

00:13:25.700 but he's at least Trump-influenced.

00:13:27.700 You know, he learned what works and what doesn't

00:13:29.920 from watching Trump, and he did it well.

00:13:33.080 So I would say the age alone, I'm going to be consistent.

00:13:37.140 I said that the last election,

00:13:40.120 I said neither of them should be running.

00:13:42.540 Does anybody remember me saying that?

00:13:44.840 Because of age.

00:13:46.400 It has nothing to do with policies or even competency.

00:13:50.000 It has nothing to do with the competency when they're running.

00:13:53.180 The problem is, what happens if they get in office

00:13:55.160 and things go downhill quickly?

00:13:57.680 That's your risk.

00:13:59.120 So I never support a president that age, period.

00:14:03.020 So I'm going to be consistent.

00:14:04.900 I'm never going to support a candidate that age.

00:14:08.820 But if that's all you have, like everybody else,

00:14:11.920 I'm going to have to pick the lesser evil,

00:14:13.420 so I might be in that situation too.

00:14:16.100 So in my opinion, Trump has this gigantic,

00:14:21.060 gigantic market opportunity

00:14:22.960 to become the king of political commentary.

00:14:28.480 I mean, he could just walk right into it.

00:14:30.580 And he would be the biggest in the business on day one, I think,

00:14:33.280 because he would be the best, honestly.

00:14:35.060 It's not just because he's Trump.

00:14:36.620 He could do it better than anybody can do it, right?

00:14:41.520 So that has to be considered.

00:14:43.680 Because I think he would be attracted to things

00:14:46.160 that would be high attention, high profitability,

00:14:50.740 could maybe rehabilitate some of his brand for his business, etc.

00:14:55.580 It's the biggest opportunity I've ever seen anybody ever have, really.

00:15:00.260 It would be hard to think of anybody in the world

00:15:02.920 who has a bigger chance for something

00:15:05.240 that's just perfectly in their strike zone,

00:15:08.400 and all they have to do is say yes, basically.

00:15:11.620 So I think he could have even more power

00:15:14.700 as a political opinion maker

00:15:17.920 than he even would as president.

00:15:20.020 Because as president, all day long,

00:15:21.560 all he has to do is fight off attacks and fake news.

00:15:25.040 But if he's the one making the news,

00:15:27.020 he gets to be king.

00:15:30.380 So if I were Trump, I would take the promotion.

00:15:33.840 But he hates to lose,

00:15:35.680 so maybe just winning again is all that matters.

00:15:39.200 Could be.

00:15:40.600 You know, it's the

00:15:41.940 be careful what you wish for situation with Trump.

00:15:45.820 When you say to yourself,

00:15:47.000 I want somebody who's a fighter and never gives up,

00:15:50.340 and then you got one,

00:15:52.040 well, what are you going to do about it?

00:15:53.640 You got what you asked for.

00:15:55.560 If you get somebody who's a fighter and never gives up,

00:15:58.460 and you're still bitching 1.00

00:15:59.620 because he's complaining about the 2020 election,

00:16:03.040 what the hell did you think you were electing?

00:16:06.520 Who did you think you were voting for? 0.65

00:16:08.960 Did you think you were voting for the give up guy?

00:16:12.120 He doesn't give up.

00:16:14.120 That's like the most important thing you have to know.

00:16:17.360 If you don't understand that one thing,

00:16:19.120 he's not going to stop.

00:16:20.600 He's not going to stop.

00:16:22.240 Then you don't know who you voted for.

00:16:24.920 All right.

00:16:25.760 Want some good news?

00:16:28.520 CNN had a long story about how close we are to recession, etc.

00:16:31.880 But toward the end,

00:16:33.620 in a very helpful way,

00:16:35.220 they compiled a number of things that are trending right.

00:16:38.020 Now, I'm not sure if you knew this

00:16:40.560 because, you know, good news doesn't break through.

00:16:43.360 But I'm going to give you some economic good news

00:16:46.640 that falls perfectly within the category of

00:16:49.880 the Adam's Law of Slow-Moving Disasters.

00:16:52.800 And the rule is that if a disaster is obvious

00:16:56.940 and everybody sees it coming,

00:16:58.780 it's like, oh, my God, everybody can see this coming,

00:17:01.480 like a recession,

00:17:03.500 that humans are really, really good at adjusting.

00:17:06.540 But they just need time.

00:17:08.860 So time is the only variable.

00:17:10.760 It doesn't matter how big the problem is.

00:17:13.000 If you give us enough time, we adjust.

00:17:15.820 That's who we are.

00:17:17.280 All right.

00:17:17.960 So my prediction is every time you see one of these,

00:17:20.900 all you have to do is look at the time.

00:17:23.200 Say, okay, we have a year?

00:17:25.440 Yeah, we can do a lot of stuff in a year.

00:17:28.300 Pandemic, we didn't have a year.

00:17:30.200 It just, bam, it was there.

00:17:31.400 And what the hell are you going to do?

00:17:32.720 All right.

00:17:32.940 So that's the bad one.

00:17:34.200 The good ones, everybody sees coming.

00:17:37.040 Like the year 2000 bug.

00:17:39.400 And we saw it coming for a few years.

00:17:41.240 It looked dangerous.

00:17:42.240 And we took care of it.

00:17:43.680 That's the way it goes with humans.

00:17:45.980 All right.

00:17:46.220 So here's more of that.

00:17:48.160 So this is just a bunch of things that are working,

00:17:50.500 going in the right direction.

00:17:51.980 The inflation rate implied by TIPS,

00:17:54.820 it's a type of treasury security thing,

00:17:57.840 basically an investment vehicle,

00:18:00.060 issued by the U.S. government over the next five years

00:18:03.200 has fallen from 3.1% to 2.6% in the last month,

00:18:08.180 down from a peak of 3.7.

00:18:10.500 Now, that's an implied inflation rate.

00:18:14.320 So in other words,

00:18:15.000 investors are buying this type of security,

00:18:18.300 type of investment,

00:18:19.140 but in order for them to be smartly buying it,

00:18:23.540 in other words,

00:18:24.100 the professionals who know the most about this sort of thing,

00:18:28.560 will tell you that if they're buying this investment at this rate,

00:18:32.700 it means that there's an implied decrease in inflation coming.

00:18:37.280 That's big.

00:18:41.080 That's a pretty big change,

00:18:42.340 because look at this,

00:18:43.920 went from 3.1% to 2.6.

00:18:46.960 Now, remember,

00:18:47.800 you should look at the percentage change of 3.1 to 2.6,

00:18:52.580 which is a pretty big percentage.

00:18:53.720 You know,

00:18:54.580 it's tiny if in the absolute,

00:18:56.900 but only percentage matters for this conversation.

00:18:59.980 Right?

00:19:00.360 So that's a big,

00:19:01.220 that's a big drop in implied,

00:19:04.020 implied inflation.

00:19:06.360 So this is indicating that inflation may have peaked.

00:19:10.300 What would be the biggest problem with inflation?

00:19:15.300 What would be the story that would say,

00:19:16.900 oh,

00:19:17.040 we're dead,

00:19:18.440 versus the story that says,

00:19:19.820 oh,

00:19:20.020 it looks like we're okay.

00:19:21.540 All that matters is it peaks.

00:19:24.440 That's it.

00:19:25.540 There's one thing you need to know.

00:19:27.600 Did we reach the top?

00:19:29.620 Or is it still going up?

00:19:31.460 If it's still going up, 1.00

00:19:33.740 you might be fucked. 0.99

00:19:34.980 But if it peaked, 1.00

00:19:37.600 and this is a pretty strong indicator,

00:19:39.960 it's not confirming,

00:19:42.320 but it's a strong indicator it peaked.

00:19:45.580 We may have actually gotten top of it.

00:19:48.360 Now,

00:19:48.620 it still takes a lot of work to,

00:19:50.220 you know,

00:19:50.600 ride that inflation wave

00:19:52.660 until you,

00:19:53.320 you know,

00:19:54.000 you get it down to the beach level.

00:19:56.700 But we'll talk about the other stuff.

00:19:58.800 Okay?

00:20:00.140 There's new supply chain data

00:20:01.860 from the New York Fed

00:20:02.840 indicates that

00:20:04.400 supply bottlenecks are easing.

00:20:08.400 Supply bottlenecks,

00:20:09.760 according to one important indicator.

00:20:11.520 Again,

00:20:11.800 it's just one indicator.

00:20:14.180 The supply chain problems are easing.

00:20:16.460 Now,

00:20:16.700 this is exactly what

00:20:17.740 the Adams Law of Slow-Miving Disasters

00:20:19.760 would predict.

00:20:21.360 It would predict that

00:20:22.400 there would be a lot of adjusting,

00:20:24.920 and that that adjusting

00:20:26.080 would cause

00:20:26.840 short-term inflation.

00:20:29.920 Here's what I mean.

00:20:32.040 I'd like to buy some stuff

00:20:34.240 to build something,

00:20:35.620 so I want some raw materials.

00:20:37.460 But the raw materials,

00:20:38.760 I can't get

00:20:39.440 because there's a supply chain problem.

00:20:41.500 So what's the first thing I do?

00:20:43.340 The first thing I do

00:20:44.420 is I look for

00:20:45.100 more expensive alternatives

00:20:46.600 because it's my only choice.

00:20:49.360 So inflation goes up

00:20:51.140 because my demand

00:20:52.440 for those alternatives

00:20:53.460 drives, you know,

00:20:54.280 other people are looking

00:20:55.140 for the same alternatives.

00:20:56.060 So the price of the alternatives

00:20:57.880 goes up in the short run

00:20:59.020 because it's your only choice.

00:21:01.740 And then the quality of the product

00:21:03.220 might go down a little

00:21:04.020 because you don't like

00:21:04.720 that substitute.

00:21:06.480 But in the long run,

00:21:08.440 you didn't run out of stuff

00:21:09.740 because you adjusted

00:21:10.920 to other materials.

00:21:12.180 Your price went up

00:21:13.140 but only in the short run

00:21:14.220 because in the long run,

00:21:15.440 other producers will say,

00:21:16.660 wow,

00:21:17.380 look at how much

00:21:18.500 they're selling that stuff for.

00:21:19.880 So we'll make some too.

00:21:21.060 So the free market,

00:21:24.060 if you see that inflation

00:21:26.020 has peaked,

00:21:27.700 it should be about

00:21:28.840 the same time

00:21:29.780 that your supply chain

00:21:31.800 problems are easing.

00:21:33.220 You get that they're related,

00:21:35.200 right?

00:21:35.880 The supply chain

00:21:36.820 is causing prices to go up

00:21:38.340 because people are all searching

00:21:39.440 for the same alternatives.

00:21:41.120 But if you've seen

00:21:42.180 that inflation has already peaked,

00:21:44.160 it might be telling you,

00:21:46.120 and this is compatible,

00:21:47.760 that the supply chain problem

00:21:49.040 may have peaked.

00:21:49.640 Those two things

00:21:51.120 you would expect to peak

00:21:52.440 around the same time,

00:21:54.280 right,

00:21:54.520 within the same year or so,

00:21:55.900 right?

00:21:57.980 Now,

00:21:58.560 somebody says supply

00:21:59.320 is also reduced.

00:22:00.540 So far,

00:22:01.460 that hasn't really happened.

00:22:02.520 That's been the surprise.

00:22:04.140 The consumer has been strong

00:22:05.760 all the way through

00:22:06.560 and is expected

00:22:07.420 to stay strong,

00:22:08.800 which is sort of unusual.

00:22:11.460 You know,

00:22:11.620 normally you expect

00:22:12.580 the problem is

00:22:13.240 there's not enough demand,

00:22:14.740 but apparently

00:22:15.180 there's plenty of demand,

00:22:16.700 which is weird.

00:22:17.840 So there's plenty of demand,

00:22:19.220 and as soon as

00:22:20.980 the supply can fit it,

00:22:23.200 then the prices

00:22:23.800 should start going down.

00:22:25.820 All right?

00:22:26.940 Here's some more good news.

00:22:30.740 In,

00:22:32.200 oh,

00:22:32.680 U.S. inflation expectations,

00:22:34.400 as per the St. Louis Fed Reserve,

00:22:36.580 have dropped

00:22:37.360 to their lowest levels

00:22:38.360 in the early year.

00:22:39.460 All right?

00:22:39.620 So this is expectations.

00:22:41.820 So expectations

00:22:43.480 do drive the reality,

00:22:44.940 right?

00:22:45.780 Because people will raise

00:22:46.840 their own prices

00:22:47.560 if they think,

00:22:48.900 well,

00:22:49.140 this is just the way

00:22:49.900 it's going to be.

00:22:50.540 I guess I've got to do

00:22:51.280 what everybody else is doing.

00:22:52.600 But they won't necessarily

00:22:53.940 raise their prices

00:22:54.860 if they think that

00:22:56.280 in a few months

00:22:56.980 everything's going to

00:22:57.700 come back down

00:22:58.300 to where it was

00:22:59.040 because then they don't

00:23:00.240 want to have to go through

00:23:00.920 the raise the price,

00:23:01.840 lower the price

00:23:02.400 sort of thing.

00:23:04.000 So what people expect

00:23:05.880 about inflation

00:23:06.880 probably does matter,

00:23:08.100 and that's looking good.

00:23:09.740 All right,

00:23:09.960 here's another one.

00:23:10.500 In June,

00:23:10.880 the University of Michigan

00:23:11.680 survey of consumer

00:23:12.520 long-term inflation

00:23:13.420 expectations fell

00:23:14.360 from 3.3 to 3.1.

00:23:16.380 Not a big percentage

00:23:17.700 or absolute number,

00:23:19.600 but it could indicate

00:23:21.240 it peaked.

00:23:22.660 The thing you care about

00:23:23.920 is not going up.

00:23:26.400 Listening to Scott

00:23:27.360 talk about economics

00:23:28.280 is painful.

00:23:29.680 That's how economics is.

00:23:31.440 Is there a fun way

00:23:32.180 to talk about it?

00:23:34.920 And oil prices are down,

00:23:36.900 you know,

00:23:37.340 since June 8th,

00:23:38.080 10%,

00:23:38.500 but again,

00:23:39.940 that's not a big drop,

00:23:40.980 but it might be a peak.

00:23:43.880 So some of our

00:23:44.920 most important indicators

00:23:46.140 about supply

00:23:47.640 and about inflation

00:23:48.800 look like

00:23:51.520 the miracle

00:23:52.740 of the free markets

00:23:53.920 have done exactly

00:23:55.240 what they were supposed

00:23:55.920 to do.

00:23:56.680 In fact,

00:23:57.240 that inflation

00:23:57.820 should be signaling

00:23:58.900 to you

00:23:59.440 that people are

00:24:00.420 adjusting

00:24:01.060 the supply chain.

00:24:03.380 It's not the only thing

00:24:04.560 in the inflation number,

00:24:05.480 of course.

00:24:06.540 But you're actually

00:24:08.380 seeing good news

00:24:09.440 being sold

00:24:10.040 as bad news.

00:24:11.740 If people can

00:24:14.080 charge more

00:24:14.900 and give you

00:24:15.860 an alternative,

00:24:16.860 then you're not

00:24:17.480 in that much trouble.

00:24:18.640 But if you couldn't

00:24:19.480 get an alternative

00:24:20.300 at any price,

00:24:21.520 you're in a lot of trouble.

00:24:23.440 So apparently,

00:24:24.460 we were in less trouble

00:24:25.340 than we thought

00:24:25.780 because people were

00:24:26.340 more clever

00:24:26.820 about alternatives.

00:24:28.880 Well,

00:24:29.260 Tucker Carlson's

00:24:30.140 making news,

00:24:31.780 talking about

00:24:32.320 that weirdo

00:24:33.200 shooter guy. 0.57

00:24:34.500 I think I'll just

00:24:35.060 call him

00:24:35.340 the weirdo

00:24:35.860 shooter guy.

00:24:36.960 I don't want

00:24:37.560 to use his name.

00:24:39.020 In Highlands.

00:24:39.860 Don't want to

00:24:40.280 give him too much

00:24:40.720 attention.

00:24:41.460 All right.

00:24:42.380 But Tucker's

00:24:43.460 take on this

00:24:44.080 is that they're

00:24:47.220 angry.

00:24:47.940 That there are

00:24:48.800 young men who are

00:24:49.400 angry.

00:24:50.000 And this is

00:24:50.480 Tucker's take.

00:24:51.280 All right.

00:24:51.580 So I'm not giving

00:24:52.800 you my opinion.

00:24:54.500 It's just notable

00:24:55.340 because Tucker

00:24:56.140 is saying it.

00:24:57.820 And when I get to

00:24:59.480 the end of what

00:25:00.120 Tucker is saying

00:25:00.840 here, you might

00:25:02.760 stand up and

00:25:03.560 applaud Tucker

00:25:04.540 Carlson even if

00:25:05.540 you hate him.

00:25:08.760 That's a strong

00:25:09.600 claim.

00:25:10.440 I would say even

00:25:11.220 if you're a

00:25:11.740 Democrat, when I

00:25:13.700 tell you what

00:25:14.240 Tucker Carlson said

00:25:15.320 last night, you

00:25:16.700 might stand up

00:25:18.620 from your actual

00:25:19.820 chair and applaud

00:25:21.240 him for being a

00:25:22.460 patriot.

00:25:22.780 Big claim because

00:25:25.960 people don't like

00:25:26.680 Tucker if they're

00:25:27.460 on the right.

00:25:28.840 That's my claim

00:25:29.540 that even the

00:25:30.060 Democrat will 0.68

00:25:31.120 stand up and

00:25:31.840 applaud him when

00:25:32.900 I tell you what

00:25:33.400 he said.

00:25:35.200 All right.

00:25:35.880 So he starts out

00:25:36.840 with some stuff

00:25:37.360 that maybe you

00:25:38.260 wouldn't agree

00:25:38.720 with.

00:25:39.280 All right.

00:25:39.480 We're going to

00:25:39.820 build into the

00:25:40.340 part you do

00:25:40.820 agree with.

00:25:41.980 And he says,

00:25:42.940 talking about the

00:25:43.560 young man, he

00:25:44.080 says, and of

00:25:44.680 course they're

00:25:45.100 angry.

00:25:45.760 They know that

00:25:46.440 their lives will

00:25:47.220 not be better

00:25:47.820 than their

00:25:48.180 parents.

00:25:49.040 They'll be worse.

00:25:50.280 That's all but

00:25:51.000 guaranteed.

00:25:51.880 They know that.

00:25:52.780 They're not that 1.00

00:25:53.860 stupid. 1.00

00:25:54.560 And yet the 1.00

00:25:54.980 authorities in

00:25:55.700 their lives,

00:25:56.580 mostly women, 1.00

00:25:57.560 here's where

00:25:58.040 Tucker gets

00:25:58.620 provocative.

00:25:59.760 He says, and

00:26:00.220 yet the

00:26:00.540 authorities in

00:26:01.260 their lives,

00:26:02.060 mostly women, 1.00

00:26:03.280 never stop

00:26:04.000 lecturing them

00:26:04.840 about their

00:26:05.340 so-called

00:26:05.820 privilege.

00:26:07.160 You're male.

00:26:07.960 You're

00:26:08.100 privileged.

00:26:09.520 He says,

00:26:09.960 imagine that.

00:26:10.860 Try to imagine

00:26:11.500 an unhealthier,

00:26:12.580 unhappier life

00:26:13.340 than that.

00:26:14.320 So a lot of

00:26:14.880 young men in

00:26:15.380 America are 0.98

00:26:15.880 going nuts. 0.98

00:26:16.880 Are you 0.88

00:26:17.220 surprised?

00:26:18.700 And then he

00:26:21.040 went on to

00:26:21.540 list several

00:26:22.400 mass shooters

00:26:23.000 who had been

00:26:23.900 prescribed

00:26:24.440 antidepressants.

00:26:27.320 All right,

00:26:27.480 so his first

00:26:28.100 point is that

00:26:29.560 there is

00:26:29.860 something about

00:26:30.420 the, let's

00:26:32.040 say, female 1.00

00:26:32.900 control of

00:26:34.180 society.

00:26:34.680 This would be

00:26:35.520 his take,

00:26:36.140 not mine.

00:26:37.340 Something about

00:26:38.060 the female 1.00

00:26:38.580 control of

00:26:39.220 society, which

00:26:40.400 is telling

00:26:40.800 these young

00:26:41.480 men that not

00:26:42.820 only are their

00:26:43.500 lives absolutely 1.00

00:26:44.580 as shit, but 1.00

00:26:46.040 they should 1.00

00:26:46.760 have some

00:26:47.140 of that

00:26:47.340 removed.

00:26:50.040 Whatever's

00:26:50.440 left should be

00:26:51.140 removed because

00:26:51.840 of their

00:26:52.080 privilege.

00:26:53.060 Yeah, your

00:26:53.500 life is

00:26:53.980 absolutely 1.00

00:26:54.460 garbage, but 1.00

00:26:55.820 it's still a 0.99

00:26:56.380 little too

00:26:56.700 good.

00:26:57.480 You're a

00:26:57.700 little too

00:26:58.020 privileged.

00:27:00.100 Imagine what

00:27:00.740 that does to 0.51

00:27:01.260 your brain.

00:27:02.340 It is a good

00:27:02.880 point.

00:27:04.240 I don't know

00:27:04.980 that that has

00:27:05.420 anything to do

00:27:06.020 with the

00:27:06.280 shooting.

00:27:07.220 Do you?

00:27:08.860 So I think

00:27:09.540 connecting his

00:27:11.540 observation that

00:27:12.840 women are 1.00

00:27:13.880 having,

00:27:14.580 you know,

00:27:15.160 extra control

00:27:15.960 in society

00:27:16.560 lately, and

00:27:17.780 that men are

00:27:18.360 feeling a

00:27:18.820 certain way.

00:27:19.240 That's probably

00:27:19.660 true-ish for

00:27:21.420 some number

00:27:22.260 of people, but

00:27:23.500 I don't know

00:27:24.380 that it really

00:27:25.000 explains why

00:27:25.600 they become

00:27:25.980 shooters.

00:27:29.280 But let me

00:27:30.540 extend that

00:27:31.260 thought a little

00:27:31.820 bit with my

00:27:32.720 own thought.

00:27:34.620 Is it part of

00:27:35.640 the general

00:27:36.140 degrading of

00:27:37.140 the value of

00:27:37.940 men?

00:27:40.360 Is it part of

00:27:41.520 the general

00:27:42.160 degrading of

00:27:43.640 the value of

00:27:44.520 men?

00:27:45.340 And are we

00:27:45.900 just seeing a

00:27:46.540 natural outcome

00:27:47.340 of men being

00:27:48.600 called worthless?

00:27:50.180 Yeah.

00:27:50.980 Do you know

00:27:51.420 one reason that

00:27:52.320 men are worth

00:27:53.660 less in 2022

00:27:55.220 than maybe in

00:27:56.260 prior times?

00:27:57.640 Give me a

00:27:58.100 reason that men,

00:27:59.400 young men in

00:28:00.020 particular, do

00:28:01.100 have less value

00:28:02.780 than at any

00:28:03.520 time in human

00:28:06.260 civilization.

00:28:07.600 Any time in

00:28:08.460 human civilization.

00:28:09.500 Not because of

00:28:10.100 low T, not because

00:28:11.600 of sex, not because

00:28:12.580 of vibrators.

00:28:13.220 Good guess,

00:28:14.120 though.

00:28:15.600 Yeah, somebody

00:28:16.200 got it right.

00:28:16.660 There's no wars.

00:28:18.180 We're not sending

00:28:19.160 young men to

00:28:19.800 die.

00:28:21.880 Unfortunately, war

00:28:23.360 siphons off our

00:28:25.440 most dangerous

00:28:26.140 people into a

00:28:27.160 different activity,

00:28:28.380 and we don't

00:28:28.940 notice it.

00:28:30.400 I wonder how

00:28:31.420 much of that is

00:28:32.340 going on.

00:28:33.740 If you were

00:28:34.500 somebody who

00:28:35.020 thought to

00:28:35.380 yourself, you

00:28:35.820 know, I

00:28:37.180 actually don't

00:28:37.840 mind shooting 0.97

00:28:38.400 people, and 1.00

00:28:39.160 even if I

00:28:39.660 got shot, I

00:28:41.380 really wouldn't

00:28:41.820 mind that

00:28:42.240 much.

00:28:44.040 What do you

00:28:44.760 do in a

00:28:45.180 normal time?

00:28:45.880 Wouldn't you

00:28:46.260 join the

00:28:46.640 military, or

00:28:47.400 maybe you'd

00:28:47.880 get drafted

00:28:48.340 and you'd be

00:28:48.840 in the

00:28:49.040 military?

00:28:49.720 But I feel

00:28:50.380 like the

00:28:50.680 most violent

00:28:51.380 thinking young

00:28:52.920 men would 0.98

00:28:54.320 have joined

00:28:54.780 the military

00:28:55.300 in a prior

00:28:56.500 time, and

00:28:57.960 you wouldn't

00:28:58.360 notice that

00:28:58.800 they were

00:28:59.000 violent, because

00:29:00.400 that's their

00:29:00.780 job.

00:29:01.600 And if they 0.98

00:29:02.520 got killed, 0.91

00:29:04.940 it'd just be a 0.93

00:29:05.620 statistic.

00:29:06.040 But if you

00:29:07.240 take a world

00:29:09.040 where nothing

00:29:09.700 can be

00:29:10.220 siphoned off,

00:29:11.160 none of that

00:29:11.640 energy can be

00:29:12.320 siphoned off,

00:29:14.860 I've got a

00:29:16.320 feeling that

00:29:16.780 you're asking

00:29:17.560 for it.

00:29:18.640 Now, what

00:29:19.140 happens when

00:29:19.840 the quality of

00:29:21.520 women goes 1.00

00:29:23.060 way down?

00:29:25.060 So you're a

00:29:25.880 man, and you

00:29:26.740 basically live

00:29:27.580 to mate,

00:29:29.860 because you're

00:29:30.260 designed that

00:29:30.760 way.

00:29:31.080 Even if you're

00:29:31.600 not thinking

00:29:32.060 that way,

00:29:33.540 you're designed

00:29:34.980 to look for

00:29:35.560 a mate, and

00:29:36.020 it's just your

00:29:36.980 evolutionary drive.

00:29:38.440 But what if

00:29:38.940 the quality or

00:29:39.780 the availability

00:29:40.200 of women,

00:29:41.180 where you

00:29:41.700 live, goes

00:29:42.720 to the point

00:29:43.140 where you

00:29:43.420 don't even

00:29:43.740 want them,

00:29:44.400 and they

00:29:45.180 definitely

00:29:45.480 don't want

00:29:45.920 you?

00:29:46.740 Now, when I

00:29:47.380 say the

00:29:47.680 quality of

00:29:48.140 women went 1.00

00:29:48.600 down, I'm

00:29:49.980 not going to

00:29:50.420 direct that

00:29:50.820 just to

00:29:51.160 women. 0.81

00:29:51.780 I think the

00:29:52.260 quality of

00:29:52.720 people in

00:29:53.240 America went 0.54

00:29:53.840 way down.

00:29:55.360 And there

00:29:55.880 is a growing

00:29:56.560 feeling that

00:29:57.840 people who

00:29:58.300 were not born

00:29:59.000 in this

00:29:59.380 country, but

00:30:00.580 came here

00:30:01.160 after they'd

00:30:02.160 been raised a

00:30:02.900 little bit in

00:30:03.400 some other

00:30:03.740 country, are

00:30:04.640 just better

00:30:05.060 people.

00:30:05.440 if anybody

00:30:08.220 had that

00:30:08.740 conversation, have

00:30:10.640 you ever sat

00:30:11.040 around and

00:30:11.460 said, you

00:30:11.800 know, when I

00:30:13.460 think about the

00:30:14.020 people who 1.00

00:30:14.420 suck versus the 1.00

00:30:16.340 people who are 0.96

00:30:16.760 kind of awesome

00:30:17.360 in my life, it's

00:30:19.060 hard for me to

00:30:19.780 not notice that

00:30:20.960 there's a

00:30:21.300 correlation.

00:30:22.900 Where I live,

00:30:23.600 there are just

00:30:23.980 tons of people

00:30:24.660 who were born in

00:30:25.260 another country,

00:30:26.160 and then their

00:30:27.680 adulthood is here.

00:30:28.360 And those

00:30:29.400 people tend to

00:30:30.220 be universally

00:30:31.520 kind of awesome.

00:30:33.300 People born in

00:30:34.160 other countries.

00:30:35.160 And there's

00:30:35.480 something about

00:30:35.980 the warmth, I

00:30:38.100 don't know what

00:30:38.440 it is, something

00:30:39.660 about the warmth

00:30:40.460 of the way they

00:30:41.020 deal with people,

00:30:41.780 especially the

00:30:42.320 way they deal

00:30:42.780 with male-female

00:30:43.520 situations, it

00:30:44.960 does seem

00:30:45.380 different.

00:30:46.320 And I've heard

00:30:47.220 lots of people

00:30:48.020 lately stating an

00:30:50.540 absolute preference

00:30:51.560 for people who

00:30:52.320 were not raised in

00:30:53.300 American culture.

00:30:54.060 Has anybody

00:30:56.140 else heard that?

00:30:58.240 Yeah.

00:30:59.060 It is something

00:30:59.880 that's being talked

00:31:00.580 about now, that

00:31:01.340 American culture is

00:31:02.700 ruining not just 0.78

00:31:03.700 women, absolutely 1.00

00:31:04.840 not just women, 0.63

00:31:05.580 it's ruining

00:31:05.980 everybody.

00:31:09.820 So, so Tucker

00:31:11.360 said that.

00:31:13.360 But that's not

00:31:14.680 the part you're

00:31:15.160 going to applaud

00:31:15.760 him for.

00:31:16.700 In fact, you

00:31:17.400 might not even

00:31:17.880 like that.

00:31:19.400 The part you're

00:31:20.200 going to applaud

00:31:21.020 him for is that

00:31:21.940 he went after

00:31:22.680 the news

00:31:24.220 business being

00:31:24.980 supported by

00:31:25.740 pharmaceutical

00:31:26.260 companies.

00:31:27.840 Now, he

00:31:28.280 alleges that we

00:31:29.600 should be worried,

00:31:30.800 no, he doesn't

00:31:31.440 allege it, he

00:31:32.040 tells us directly,

00:31:33.220 that we should be

00:31:33.900 concerned about

00:31:34.540 the number of,

00:31:36.420 is it SRI,

00:31:38.480 no, SSRIs?

00:31:40.640 What is it,

00:31:41.160 the antidepressants?

00:31:43.560 So apparently

00:31:44.000 the antidepressant

00:31:45.200 SSRIs.

00:31:47.060 The antidepressant

00:31:48.340 prescriptions are,

00:31:49.760 you know, up

00:31:50.060 3,000% at the

00:31:52.120 same time that

00:31:53.340 this violence is

00:31:54.400 up.

00:31:55.800 So do you

00:31:56.360 think it's a

00:31:56.840 coincidence that

00:31:58.540 drug prescriptions

00:31:59.440 and violence are

00:32:00.300 both going up?

00:32:01.040 Now, the

00:32:01.360 suggestion would be

00:32:02.440 that maybe the

00:32:03.580 drug companies

00:32:04.620 might have

00:32:05.060 something to do

00:32:05.700 with the

00:32:06.940 increase in

00:32:07.400 violence.

00:32:08.520 I would argue

00:32:09.420 that that is not

00:32:10.480 clear from the

00:32:11.180 data.

00:32:11.980 Rather, there are

00:32:12.620 two possibilities

00:32:13.360 that the data

00:32:14.000 suggests.

00:32:15.080 One is that

00:32:15.740 people are being

00:32:16.340 driven crazy by

00:32:17.340 something else,

00:32:18.960 and so more of

00:32:19.760 them need drugs, 1.00

00:32:20.600 but it's not the

00:32:21.260 drugs that are

00:32:21.760 making them

00:32:22.200 crazy or 0.96

00:32:22.880 violent.

00:32:23.640 It's just there's

00:32:24.380 more craziness,

00:32:25.320 and this is

00:32:25.960 really all we

00:32:26.640 have to deal

00:32:27.500 with it,

00:32:28.020 is drugs.

00:32:29.440 So, I'm not

00:32:31.520 sure I buy

00:32:32.140 the, I don't

00:32:35.100 buy the

00:32:35.520 correlation as

00:32:36.500 being causation,

00:32:37.980 but it could

00:32:38.820 be.

00:32:39.820 It could be.

00:32:41.180 Now, here's the

00:32:41.720 part where you

00:32:42.320 need to stand

00:32:43.660 up and applaud

00:32:45.000 Tucker Carlson.

00:32:46.380 He went

00:32:46.900 directly at the

00:32:48.160 networks for

00:32:49.140 using pharmaceutical

00:32:50.080 companies as

00:32:50.940 their main

00:32:51.460 backers for

00:32:53.180 commercials.

00:32:54.660 Now, am I

00:32:55.860 wrong that Fox

00:32:56.640 News also has

00:32:57.780 lots of

00:32:58.160 pharmaceutical

00:32:58.660 advertisements?

00:33:01.700 Am I

00:33:02.360 imagining that?

00:33:03.640 Now, I don't

00:33:04.200 think that Tucker

00:33:05.020 Carlson's show

00:33:05.800 necessarily does,

00:33:07.780 because I feel

00:33:08.300 like I always

00:33:09.220 see, you know,

00:33:09.700 MyPillow and

00:33:10.760 Patriot this,

00:33:11.920 and you see

00:33:13.140 all the weird

00:33:13.680 commercials that

00:33:14.520 don't run

00:33:14.940 anywhere else on

00:33:15.680 Fox News.

00:33:17.140 But I believe

00:33:18.020 that all the

00:33:18.780 networks are

00:33:19.300 running pharmaceutical

00:33:20.120 commercials.

00:33:21.840 Did the biggest

00:33:22.900 name in news

00:33:25.160 opinion just go

00:33:27.960 on the news and

00:33:29.300 tell you that the

00:33:30.120 whole system is

00:33:30.900 broken because his

00:33:32.280 own business is

00:33:33.120 funded by the

00:33:34.100 pharmaceutical

00:33:34.540 industries?

00:33:35.820 He just did

00:33:36.640 that.

00:33:38.060 Tucker Carlson

00:33:38.940 just went on the

00:33:40.320 air and said his

00:33:41.080 own industry is

00:33:41.900 completely non-credible

00:33:44.180 and the most

00:33:45.160 important problems,

00:33:46.500 his own industry.

00:33:47.200 And really, he

00:33:48.680 didn't name Fox

00:33:49.380 News, but did he

00:33:50.240 need to?

00:33:51.360 Because the

00:33:52.200 indication is that

00:33:53.360 if you take

00:33:53.860 advertisements from

00:33:54.800 pharmaceutical

00:33:55.280 companies, you're

00:33:56.640 not reporting the

00:33:57.420 truth.

00:33:58.900 That was the

00:34:00.360 implication, that if

00:34:01.760 you take money from

00:34:02.500 that source, you

00:34:03.840 literally are going

00:34:04.780 to lie about the

00:34:05.820 news.

00:34:06.960 And somebody who

00:34:07.780 knows way more

00:34:08.560 about the news

00:34:09.240 than you do,

00:34:10.940 who knows more

00:34:11.740 about how the

00:34:12.300 news works?

00:34:13.800 Tucker Carlson

00:34:14.660 or you?

00:34:16.840 Tucker Carlson

00:34:17.620 knows more about

00:34:18.320 that.

00:34:19.120 Say what you will

00:34:19.780 about him, he's

00:34:20.520 an expert on the

00:34:21.780 news business,

00:34:22.660 right?

00:34:23.600 You're not.

00:34:25.500 I'm close.

00:34:26.700 I mean, I know

00:34:27.440 more than most of

00:34:28.240 you about the

00:34:28.660 news business, but

00:34:29.500 I don't know what

00:34:30.460 he knows.

00:34:31.460 Like, whatever the

00:34:31.960 hell Tucker Carlson

00:34:32.800 knows is a lot more

00:34:33.600 than you know.

00:34:34.320 And if he's

00:34:34.840 sounding the alarm,

00:34:36.380 and he's basically

00:34:37.340 telling you the

00:34:37.960 news is fake,

00:34:39.280 because it's

00:34:40.480 altered by the

00:34:42.120 advertising,

00:34:42.640 I think you've

00:34:45.380 got to stand up

00:34:46.000 and give that a

00:34:46.540 hand.

00:34:47.640 No matter what

00:34:48.800 you think of

00:34:49.440 Tucker Carlson's

00:34:50.420 other opinions.

00:34:52.060 And by the way,

00:34:52.620 I don't agree with

00:34:53.380 his other opinions

00:34:54.100 in a number of

00:34:55.020 places.

00:34:55.840 So I'm not going

00:34:56.580 to tell you I'm

00:34:57.640 going to agree

00:34:58.040 with this or give

00:34:58.640 me a standing

00:34:59.120 ovation because

00:35:00.240 Tucker's awesome.

00:35:01.780 He is probably

00:35:02.920 the most gifted

00:35:03.760 person doing his

00:35:04.720 job at the

00:35:06.040 moment.

00:35:06.480 I don't think

00:35:06.840 anybody's doing

00:35:07.480 what he does

00:35:08.040 better than he

00:35:08.580 does it.

00:35:08.960 But this is a

00:35:14.160 service to the

00:35:14.920 country.

00:35:17.200 Let me ask you

00:35:18.120 this.

00:35:18.940 Follow the money.

00:35:21.320 Tucker Carlson

00:35:22.100 just spoke out

00:35:22.880 against pharmaceutical

00:35:23.940 companies that

00:35:24.860 fund his industry.

00:35:26.980 Was he following

00:35:27.940 the money?

00:35:30.180 Do you think

00:35:30.900 that was a clever

00:35:31.700 play to somehow

00:35:33.540 make more money

00:35:34.500 because it will

00:35:34.940 become more

00:35:35.440 popular because

00:35:36.140 he said something

00:35:36.640 you like?

00:35:37.000 I don't think

00:35:39.220 this is good

00:35:39.720 for him.

00:35:40.900 I do not

00:35:41.400 believe that

00:35:41.960 there's any way

00:35:42.500 Tucker Carlson

00:35:43.340 could be anything

00:35:44.020 but hurt by

00:35:45.820 talking out

00:35:46.500 against advertisements

00:35:47.560 from pharmaceutical

00:35:49.440 companies.

00:35:50.860 It seems to me

00:35:52.060 that you just

00:35:53.440 watched a rare

00:35:54.340 example of

00:35:55.080 somebody who

00:35:55.540 didn't follow

00:35:56.080 the money.

00:35:57.640 And I'm

00:35:58.160 trying to think

00:35:58.740 of a second

00:35:59.380 reason that he

00:36:00.080 would do that

00:36:00.820 besides he

00:36:02.520 actually wanted

00:36:03.180 to make

00:36:03.500 something better.

00:36:04.780 Can you?

00:36:05.220 Give me a

00:36:07.120 second hypothesis

00:36:08.200 for why he

00:36:08.940 did that.

00:36:11.660 Credibility,

00:36:12.520 somebody says.

00:36:15.200 Credibility,

00:36:15.860 that's always

00:36:16.440 an important

00:36:16.840 variable.

00:36:17.340 I'll give you

00:36:17.660 that one.

00:36:18.740 Job property

00:36:19.380 at CNN,

00:36:20.280 no.

00:36:20.580 Altruism? 1.00

00:36:21.680 Kill the

00:36:22.120 competition?

00:36:23.180 No, because

00:36:23.680 Fox News, I'm

00:36:24.800 pretty sure,

00:36:25.260 takes pharmaceutical

00:36:26.160 advertisements.

00:36:29.920 Plans to run

00:36:30.600 for president?

00:36:31.360 No, I don't

00:36:32.020 see any

00:36:32.360 indication of

00:36:32.980 that.

00:36:33.200 No.

00:36:35.220 Here's my

00:36:36.600 hypothesis.

00:36:37.940 We're not

00:36:38.440 mind readers,

00:36:39.540 right?

00:36:39.880 We're not

00:36:40.240 mind readers,

00:36:40.940 but when you

00:36:41.580 see somebody

00:36:42.140 conspicuously

00:36:43.260 ignore following

00:36:44.480 the money,

00:36:45.760 he's actually

00:36:46.280 running away

00:36:46.940 from the money.

00:36:48.340 Now, he can

00:36:49.020 afford it,

00:36:49.680 we assume,

00:36:50.440 like he's not

00:36:50.960 going to be

00:36:51.260 poor, but

00:36:52.420 people don't

00:36:53.060 do that,

00:36:53.820 no matter how

00:36:54.340 much money

00:36:54.680 they have.

00:36:54.960 They don't

00:36:55.200 run away

00:36:55.600 from money.

00:36:57.260 And he

00:36:57.500 just, I

00:36:58.040 think he's

00:36:58.520 just doing

00:36:58.960 it.

00:37:01.420 Jumping off

00:37:02.060 a sinking ship,

00:37:02.940 no, Fox

00:37:03.500 is killing

00:37:04.560 it. 0.99

00:37:05.180 Fox is

00:37:05.540 doing great.

00:37:09.160 Scott is

00:37:09.840 talking like

00:37:10.340 a Canadian.

00:37:12.280 So, I'm

00:37:13.280 going to give

00:37:13.540 Tucker a

00:37:14.080 standing ovation

00:37:14.740 for this

00:37:17.200 one thing.

00:37:18.100 Just calling

00:37:18.840 out the

00:37:19.840 corrupt

00:37:20.760 situation

00:37:22.660 there.

00:37:24.040 Standing

00:37:24.600 ovation,

00:37:25.320 Tucker Carlson,

00:37:26.140 for calling

00:37:26.500 out the

00:37:27.640 pharmaceutical

00:37:27.980 companies.

00:37:29.420 Thank you.

00:37:29.840 And by

00:37:31.540 the way,

00:37:32.640 this is

00:37:33.060 actually

00:37:33.500 standing out

00:37:34.140 of respect.

00:37:36.200 Right?

00:37:37.340 That's not

00:37:37.900 even just

00:37:38.820 showboating.

00:37:39.960 That's

00:37:40.360 actual

00:37:40.840 respect.

00:37:42.540 Because if

00:37:43.280 other people

00:37:43.780 in this

00:37:44.140 country

00:37:44.540 could, you

00:37:46.480 know, have 0.99

00:37:46.760 the balls 0.99

00:37:47.200 to do 0.99

00:37:47.540 what he

00:37:47.820 just did,

00:37:48.920 well, maybe

00:37:49.700 we'd be in

00:37:50.160 better shape.

00:37:51.280 Right?

00:37:51.900 Wouldn't

00:37:52.140 you love to

00:37:52.640 see somebody

00:37:53.220 on CNN

00:37:53.820 just say,

00:37:54.460 you know,

00:37:55.600 like, we've

00:37:56.540 been saying

00:37:57.000 X and Y,

00:37:57.860 but I just

00:37:58.680 got to tell

00:37:59.140 you the

00:38:00.700 truth.

00:38:01.380 And just

00:38:01.700 like, come

00:38:02.100 out with

00:38:02.360 the truth.

00:38:03.420 Like this.

00:38:05.380 The world

00:38:05.900 would be a

00:38:06.260 better place.

00:38:08.280 All right.

00:38:09.220 I'm going to

00:38:09.740 take a

00:38:10.220 radical turn.

00:38:11.500 I think I've

00:38:11.900 made you all

00:38:12.360 feel positive

00:38:13.220 now.

00:38:14.960 Don't you

00:38:15.280 all feel

00:38:15.540 positive?

00:38:18.000 All right.

00:38:18.840 I'm going to

00:38:19.220 tell you the

00:38:19.780 biggest problem,

00:38:20.860 one of the

00:38:21.340 biggest problems

00:38:21.740 that we have

00:38:22.160 for young

00:38:23.560 people in

00:38:23.960 America,

00:38:24.460 social

00:38:24.820 problems.

00:38:26.840 And the

00:38:27.400 shooting is a

00:38:27.980 perfect example.

00:38:29.140 of the

00:38:30.000 dangerous

00:38:30.440 young men.

00:38:31.800 Now, they're

00:38:32.480 also dangerous

00:38:33.140 young women,

00:38:33.820 but we're

00:38:34.060 going to

00:38:34.260 concentrate on

00:38:34.860 men just

00:38:35.840 for statistical

00:38:36.640 reasons.

00:38:39.320 There are two

00:38:40.380 problems that

00:38:40.840 are kind of

00:38:41.180 conflated.

00:38:41.860 One is the

00:38:43.420 fentanyl drug

00:38:45.040 addiction problem,

00:38:46.960 and the other

00:38:47.480 is the school

00:38:48.080 shootings.

00:38:48.840 Here's what they

00:38:49.400 have in common.

00:38:51.040 They're both

00:38:51.740 cases where you

00:38:52.720 can know there's

00:38:53.400 trouble in advance

00:38:54.280 and there's

00:38:54.640 nothing you can

00:38:55.200 do about it.

00:38:55.800 So you

00:38:57.060 can find that

00:38:57.780 this, let's

00:38:58.840 say a teen is

00:38:59.760 saying that

00:39:00.880 they're going to

00:39:01.280 do something

00:39:01.760 dangerous, you

00:39:02.980 send the police,

00:39:04.000 they take away

00:39:04.560 the guns, he

00:39:05.420 gets some new

00:39:05.940 ones, there's

00:39:06.620 nothing you can

00:39:07.140 do about it.

00:39:09.100 The Highland

00:39:09.880 situation is

00:39:10.660 really, really

00:39:11.400 good evidence

00:39:12.100 that we don't

00:39:13.340 have any

00:39:13.880 systems in

00:39:14.620 place that

00:39:15.820 could deal

00:39:16.240 with that

00:39:16.580 specific kind

00:39:17.300 of situation.

00:39:17.940 A dangerous

00:39:18.600 young male

00:39:19.260 who hasn't

00:39:20.480 yet broken

00:39:20.920 a law,

00:39:21.820 that's the

00:39:22.200 important part.

00:39:22.700 A dangerous

00:39:23.840 young male

00:39:24.360 who's clearly

00:39:25.260 dangerous, but

00:39:26.920 has not yet

00:39:27.560 broken a law,

00:39:28.240 there's nothing

00:39:28.600 you can do.

00:39:29.920 Now here's

00:39:30.380 another one.

00:39:31.580 Suppose you're

00:39:32.240 a teen, and

00:39:32.760 I'm going to

00:39:33.020 say male

00:39:33.620 between 14

00:39:34.480 and 19, just

00:39:35.400 so you can

00:39:35.900 have a visual

00:39:36.780 of this.

00:39:37.940 Male between 0.54

00:39:39.060 14 and 19,

00:39:40.140 and they get

00:39:40.600 on drugs.

00:39:41.920 What do you

00:39:42.480 do?

00:39:44.120 What do you

00:39:44.700 do?

00:39:45.160 You've got a

00:39:45.640 teenager on

00:39:46.200 drugs, what

00:39:46.640 do you do?

00:39:47.500 Which program

00:39:48.840 do you access?

00:39:50.600 Which government

00:39:51.200 program?

00:39:51.900 Somebody says

00:39:52.360 rehab.

00:39:52.700 So you've

00:39:55.160 got your

00:39:55.620 rehabs, right?

00:39:57.340 Does rehab

00:39:57.940 work?

00:40:01.020 Sometimes.

00:40:02.420 Hardly ever.

00:40:03.700 Hardly ever.

00:40:04.480 Does it work

00:40:04.960 for a teenager?

00:40:07.440 Let me give

00:40:08.440 you my

00:40:10.580 impression of

00:40:11.360 my conversation

00:40:12.160 with my

00:40:13.020 stepson before

00:40:13.880 he went into

00:40:14.420 rehab several

00:40:15.480 times.

00:40:16.260 So we tried

00:40:16.720 to rehab

00:40:17.000 several times.

00:40:17.900 Here's how

00:40:18.320 the conversation

00:40:18.960 would go.

00:40:20.080 All right,

00:40:20.380 you know that

00:40:21.840 you can never

00:40:22.580 do another

00:40:23.140 drug of

00:40:23.640 any kind

00:40:24.080 again,

00:40:24.420 right?

00:40:24.660 Because you

00:40:24.940 are literally 1.00

00:40:25.360 an addict. 0.99

00:40:26.680 And you

00:40:27.000 know,

00:40:27.800 rule number

00:40:28.400 one,

00:40:29.200 there's no

00:40:29.620 such thing

00:40:30.060 as a little

00:40:30.700 bit of drugs

00:40:32.160 for an

00:40:32.720 addict.

00:40:33.300 You know,

00:40:34.360 you know,

00:40:35.000 you have to be

00:40:35.600 completely clean

00:40:36.600 of all drugs,

00:40:37.260 I'd say to him.

00:40:38.280 And he'd say,

00:40:38.880 yes,

00:40:39.080 I do know that.

00:40:40.140 I completely

00:40:40.640 understand that.

00:40:41.380 And that's

00:40:42.200 why when I'm

00:40:42.660 out of rehab,

00:40:43.760 all I'm

00:40:44.640 going to do

00:40:45.000 is maybe

00:40:45.360 a few beers,

00:40:46.840 a little bit

00:40:47.220 of pot,

00:40:47.880 that's all

00:40:48.420 I'm going

00:40:48.660 to do.

00:40:49.000 And I'd say,

00:40:49.460 I feel like

00:40:50.280 you didn't hear

00:40:50.680 a word I

00:40:51.160 just said.

00:40:52.780 Really,

00:40:53.300 really zero

00:40:53.900 is the only

00:40:54.820 thing that

00:40:55.200 works.

00:40:56.140 One percent

00:40:56.640 is a complete

00:40:57.280 failure, 0.94

00:40:57.980 your life is

00:40:58.600 over, 1.00

00:40:58.820 you're dead. 1.00

00:41:00.440 Have one beer, 1.00

00:41:01.380 you're probably 1.00

00:41:01.840 fucking dead. 1.00

00:41:02.980 You get that, 1.00

00:41:03.620 right?

00:41:03.940 And he'd say,

00:41:04.380 I totally get

00:41:04.960 that.

00:41:05.700 I totally get it.

00:41:06.720 I'm an addict.

00:41:07.700 I can't stay

00:41:08.320 away from drugs.

00:41:09.460 So I'm just

00:41:11.200 going to have

00:41:11.480 a beer or two

00:41:12.040 with my friends.

00:41:13.580 And I'd be like,

00:41:14.320 I don't know

00:41:15.000 what's happening.

00:41:16.040 I don't even

00:41:16.860 understand what's

00:41:17.540 happening here.

00:41:18.660 And he would

00:41:19.380 look at me

00:41:19.840 and just say,

00:41:20.520 no,

00:41:21.080 there is no way

00:41:22.120 in the world

00:41:22.580 after rehab

00:41:23.620 I will not do

00:41:24.420 more drugs

00:41:24.960 than alcohol.

00:41:26.380 And I would say,

00:41:27.620 why am I

00:41:28.900 spending money

00:41:29.460 on this?

00:41:31.200 And he would

00:41:31.860 say,

00:41:32.240 I can't imagine

00:41:33.140 a life where

00:41:33.920 I could enjoy

00:41:34.620 my social life

00:41:35.780 without drugs

00:41:36.900 and alcohol.

00:41:37.520 I don't have

00:41:37.960 any way

00:41:38.500 to even imagine

00:41:39.260 it.

00:41:40.220 And he said,

00:41:40.680 there isn't

00:41:40.960 any way

00:41:41.280 I'm even

00:41:41.580 going to try

00:41:42.020 it.

00:41:43.240 Couldn't

00:41:43.560 possibly work.

00:41:45.700 And so,

00:41:46.220 sure enough,

00:41:46.680 he got out

00:41:47.060 of rehab,

00:41:47.620 went immediately

00:41:48.300 back to using,

00:41:49.580 and now he's

00:41:50.460 dead.

00:41:51.960 And so,

00:41:54.100 I get a lot

00:41:55.420 of helpful

00:41:55.880 advice from

00:41:57.920 other adults.

00:41:59.720 And the helpful

00:42:00.540 advice I'll get

00:42:01.340 is all the

00:42:02.000 things I could

00:42:02.740 have done

00:42:03.040 differently.

00:42:03.400 But let me

00:42:06.480 tell you,

00:42:07.040 there's nothing

00:42:07.540 you can do.

00:42:09.120 There's nothing

00:42:09.720 you can do.

00:42:10.720 Somebody says,

00:42:11.380 apply that to

00:42:11.880 yourself,

00:42:12.320 Scott.

00:42:12.820 No,

00:42:13.280 I'm not an

00:42:13.700 addict.

00:42:14.860 So you can't

00:42:15.760 make a comparison

00:42:16.700 between somebody

00:42:17.860 who doesn't have

00:42:18.540 an addictive

00:42:18.960 personality and

00:42:20.580 someone who

00:42:20.980 does.

00:42:22.700 Right?

00:42:24.540 So I tend to

00:42:25.540 be addicted to,

00:42:26.400 you know,

00:42:27.000 doing live

00:42:27.560 streams and

00:42:28.180 exercises and

00:42:29.180 stuff like

00:42:29.760 that.

00:42:29.980 So I just

00:42:34.440 did a long

00:42:34.980 Twitter thread

00:42:36.120 in which I

00:42:36.920 tried to give

00:42:37.620 people some

00:42:38.200 tough reality,

00:42:39.460 which is that

00:42:40.640 these people

00:42:42.340 cannot be

00:42:43.140 addressed with

00:42:43.900 any program

00:42:44.660 or any

00:42:45.980 technique.

00:42:46.920 There's no

00:42:47.560 tough love.

00:42:48.980 There's no

00:42:49.500 rehab.

00:42:50.020 There's no

00:42:50.320 program.

00:42:51.340 There's no

00:42:51.960 therapist.

00:42:53.440 There's no

00:42:53.880 law.

00:42:54.460 There's no

00:42:54.940 core system.

00:42:56.200 A lot of

00:42:57.940 people will

00:42:58.300 tell me,

00:42:59.000 Scott,

00:42:59.460 why don't

00:42:59.740 you just

00:43:00.080 have the

00:43:01.200 people who

00:43:01.660 come in,

00:43:02.200 they'll

00:43:02.420 kidnap your 0.90

00:43:03.100 teen at 0.51

00:43:04.400 night,

00:43:04.860 you know,

00:43:05.120 with your

00:43:05.440 permission,

00:43:06.260 and they'll

00:43:06.560 take them to

00:43:07.100 their secret

00:43:07.580 facility and

00:43:08.740 make them

00:43:09.120 ride horses

00:43:09.760 and act like

00:43:10.400 cowboys for

00:43:11.100 a year,

00:43:11.780 and then when

00:43:12.220 they come

00:43:12.600 back,

00:43:13.320 they'll be

00:43:13.620 all fixed.

00:43:14.960 Have you

00:43:15.240 all heard

00:43:15.480 about that?

00:43:16.860 Where that

00:43:17.680 program where

00:43:18.400 you hire

00:43:19.180 somebody to

00:43:19.620 come in and

00:43:19.940 basically kidnap 0.79

00:43:20.740 your kid,

00:43:22.180 take them

00:43:22.640 sometimes to

00:43:23.220 another state,

00:43:24.440 like to some

00:43:25.180 rural place,

00:43:26.060 and they'll

00:43:26.480 make them

00:43:27.100 do outdoorsy

00:43:28.580 things until

00:43:29.180 they're right.

00:43:31.580 All right,

00:43:32.020 let me tell

00:43:32.620 you what you

00:43:33.200 need to know

00:43:33.720 about that

00:43:34.120 program.

00:43:35.440 Here's the

00:43:35.860 most important

00:43:36.540 thing you need

00:43:37.000 to know about

00:43:37.440 that program.

00:43:38.320 And by the

00:43:38.660 way, I'm

00:43:38.920 going to

00:43:39.120 swear, so

00:43:40.660 there's some

00:43:41.040 cursing coming,

00:43:42.540 because it's

00:43:42.920 the only way I

00:43:43.480 can answer this

00:43:44.140 question.

00:43:45.300 So that

00:43:45.620 program where

00:43:47.340 they capture

00:43:47.960 your teen and

00:43:48.820 take them to

00:43:49.440 some place where

00:43:50.060 they can fix

00:43:50.580 them for their

00:43:51.040 drug problems,

00:43:52.160 it doesn't 1.00

00:43:53.000 fucking exist. 1.00

00:43:54.840 It doesn't 1.00

00:43:55.700 fucking exist. 0.99

00:43:57.540 I don't know 0.99

00:43:58.320 if it's ever

00:43:58.720 existed, but in

00:44:00.020 California, there

00:44:00.860 is no such

00:44:01.440 thing.

00:44:02.020 It's completely

00:44:02.960 illegal.

00:44:03.780 If it existed,

00:44:05.080 it would have

00:44:05.620 to be shut

00:44:06.100 down tomorrow.

00:44:07.180 All of your 1.00

00:44:07.880 helpful fucking 0.99

00:44:08.920 suggestions about 0.99

00:44:10.220 Scott, why don't

00:44:11.440 you just give him

00:44:12.100 a little tough

00:44:12.720 love, have him

00:44:13.760 take him to

00:44:14.220 that special

00:44:15.400 place, that's

00:44:16.640 like when your 1.00

00:44:17.220 dog fucking 1.00

00:44:18.000 dies and you 1.00

00:44:18.640 say he went

00:44:19.140 to the farm.

00:44:20.480 It doesn't

00:44:21.580 exist.

00:44:22.160 There's no

00:44:23.080 farm where

00:44:23.840 your old dog

00:44:24.720 goes to live

00:44:25.360 forever.

00:44:26.020 Your dog is 1.00

00:44:26.780 fucking dead. 1.00

00:44:28.920 And there's 1.00

00:44:30.140 nothing you can

00:44:31.040 do when your

00:44:32.400 kid is on

00:44:32.940 drugs.

00:44:33.900 There's no

00:44:34.600 program, there's

00:44:35.660 no therapist,

00:44:36.680 there's no

00:44:37.140 rehab, there's

00:44:38.060 no government

00:44:38.540 program.

00:44:39.240 There's nothing

00:44:39.680 to protect you

00:44:40.440 in your own 1.00

00:44:40.940 fucking home. 1.00

00:44:42.260 That kid is a 1.00

00:44:43.440 danger to the

00:44:44.260 parents, like a

00:44:45.560 real danger.

00:44:46.680 They can't do

00:44:47.300 anything.

00:44:48.000 They can't even

00:44:48.760 kick the kid out 0.52

00:44:49.620 of the house.

00:44:50.840 Do you know

00:44:51.180 why?

00:44:52.380 It's illegal.

00:44:54.500 It's a minor.

00:44:55.680 You can't even

00:44:56.600 kick your own

00:44:57.400 kid out of the

00:44:58.060 house.

00:44:59.300 There's nothing

00:44:59.920 you can do.

00:45:00.860 It's like

00:45:01.240 somebody saying,

00:45:02.260 well, here's

00:45:02.880 this murderous 1.00

00:45:03.980 rapist, and the 1.00

00:45:06.220 law says they

00:45:07.020 have to live in

00:45:07.640 your house.

00:45:08.920 What?

00:45:09.940 Yeah, yeah,

00:45:10.580 it's just the

00:45:11.060 law.

00:45:12.200 The law says

00:45:12.820 so.

00:45:13.480 The law says

00:45:14.040 you have to

00:45:14.440 live with a

00:45:14.960 murderous 1.00

00:45:15.360 rapist. 1.00

00:45:16.020 So, yeah, 0.99

00:45:17.180 so deal with

00:45:17.720 it.

00:45:18.220 No, if

00:45:18.820 your kid

00:45:19.300 they're not

00:45:20.000 murderous

00:45:20.380 rapists, they 1.00

00:45:21.160 might be 1.00

00:45:21.420 murderous, but

00:45:22.620 if you put a

00:45:23.640 14-year-old male

00:45:24.840 addict in your

00:45:25.740 household, it's

00:45:26.660 ripping the 0.91

00:45:27.220 house apart.

00:45:28.180 Guaranteed.

00:45:29.280 Your family is

00:45:30.240 ripped apart, and

00:45:31.440 there isn't a 1.00

00:45:31.980 fucking thing you 0.99

00:45:32.720 can do about 1.00

00:45:33.200 it.

00:45:33.860 I've looked

00:45:34.540 everywhere.

00:45:36.420 I have

00:45:36.860 resources.

00:45:38.140 I'm smart.

00:45:39.580 My ex was

00:45:40.420 very smart, very

00:45:41.540 capable, very

00:45:42.540 capable, looked

00:45:43.660 everywhere, did

00:45:44.500 everything, tried

00:45:45.460 everything.

00:45:46.340 There's nothing

00:45:47.500 to help.

00:45:48.000 And you're

00:45:49.640 going to say,

00:45:50.020 well, maybe

00:45:50.560 that's about

00:45:50.940 your son or

00:45:51.880 your stepson.

00:45:53.200 No.

00:45:54.340 No.

00:45:55.220 It's everybody

00:45:55.980 in this situation

00:45:56.740 has the same

00:45:57.340 conversation.

00:45:58.100 All the parents

00:45:58.660 who are having

00:45:59.080 this are having

00:45:59.880 the same

00:46:00.260 conversation.

00:46:01.260 There's no

00:46:01.940 help.

00:46:02.740 None.

00:46:03.900 Nothing.

00:46:05.100 Nothing you

00:46:05.720 could do.

00:46:06.500 And if you

00:46:06.960 don't get that,

00:46:08.220 you don't

00:46:08.620 understand anything

00:46:09.760 about the

00:46:10.260 situation.

00:46:11.160 There is

00:46:11.860 nothing.

00:46:12.920 Nothing.

00:46:13.780 There's nothing

00:46:14.400 that might help,

00:46:15.720 nothing that could

00:46:16.500 help.

00:46:16.800 There's nothing

00:46:17.620 to even 0.91

00:46:18.260 fucking try. 0.99

00:46:20.040 There's nothing 0.99

00:46:20.720 to even

00:46:21.360 try.

00:46:25.160 Yeah, this

00:46:25.800 isn't the

00:46:26.180 feel-good

00:46:26.480 part.

00:46:28.300 I'll tell you

00:46:28.980 what I would

00:46:29.360 do.

00:46:30.520 And this is

00:46:31.360 kind of tough.

00:46:32.820 I think the

00:46:33.660 people who

00:46:34.100 can't be

00:46:34.480 fixed have

00:46:35.020 to be

00:46:35.300 separated

00:46:35.740 from society,

00:46:37.140 but not in

00:46:38.340 jail necessarily.

00:46:39.840 Because they

00:46:40.380 haven't necessarily

00:46:41.060 done a crime

00:46:41.840 yet.

00:46:42.260 Well, one

00:46:42.700 that they've

00:46:43.020 been caught

00:46:43.360 for.

00:46:43.600 So I

00:46:44.960 think that

00:46:45.320 we need

00:46:45.640 to find

00:46:47.440 some camping

00:46:48.400 ground somewhere

00:46:49.160 and just say,

00:46:49.900 look, you

00:46:50.820 don't have to

00:46:51.340 get off drugs,

00:46:52.900 but you

00:46:53.280 can't live

00:46:53.820 with other

00:46:54.220 people.

00:46:55.820 You don't

00:46:56.500 have to get

00:46:56.980 off drugs,

00:46:57.860 but you

00:46:58.440 can't be

00:46:58.920 around other

00:46:59.440 people,

00:47:00.160 except other

00:47:00.800 people like

00:47:01.240 you.

00:47:02.020 So we're

00:47:02.560 going to put

00:47:02.880 you in this

00:47:03.500 place where

00:47:04.300 we can make

00:47:05.420 sure no drugs

00:47:06.120 get in,

00:47:07.220 but it's not

00:47:07.680 jail.

00:47:09.240 There's some

00:47:09.820 kind of a

00:47:10.200 life.

00:47:10.560 You might be

00:47:10.920 living in a

00:47:11.660 tent, but a

00:47:12.720 nice one.

00:47:13.360 You're not

00:47:13.800 suffering.

00:47:15.080 And just

00:47:16.740 make them live

00:47:17.280 in the

00:47:17.520 forest with

00:47:18.080 other people

00:47:18.600 who can't

00:47:19.020 live in

00:47:19.300 society.

00:47:20.020 They have

00:47:20.640 to be

00:47:20.940 separated

00:47:21.340 from the

00:47:21.760 rest of

00:47:22.100 us.

00:47:24.060 They have

00:47:24.760 to be

00:47:25.120 separated

00:47:25.640 physically

00:47:26.200 from the

00:47:26.660 rest of

00:47:27.060 us.

00:47:28.180 And I

00:47:29.100 don't think

00:47:29.540 there's another

00:47:30.020 way to go.

00:47:32.260 If you

00:47:32.860 do, I'd

00:47:34.560 sure like to

00:47:35.060 hear it.

00:47:36.180 But I

00:47:36.780 think they

00:47:37.080 have to be

00:47:37.420 separated.

00:47:39.360 And as

00:47:40.020 soon as you

00:47:41.140 saw this

00:47:41.540 kid doing

00:47:41.940 this violent

00:47:42.460 stuff, I

00:47:44.840 think you

00:47:45.440 just got to

00:47:45.960 put them

00:47:46.480 with the

00:47:46.960 other people

00:47:48.140 and say,

00:47:48.640 all right,

00:47:49.440 this is your

00:47:50.060 new life.

00:47:53.340 Unfortunately,

00:47:54.780 there should

00:47:55.420 be some

00:47:55.780 way to

00:47:56.100 recover and

00:47:57.040 get out of

00:47:57.560 there.

00:47:57.980 But all

00:47:58.560 right, here's

00:47:58.960 my tip for

00:47:59.500 the day that

00:48:00.220 will save

00:48:00.780 some lives.

00:48:02.280 I like doing

00:48:03.220 this if you

00:48:03.660 have enough

00:48:04.080 viewers.

00:48:05.400 If you have

00:48:06.080 enough viewers,

00:48:07.200 these little

00:48:07.720 tips will be

00:48:09.220 meaningless to

00:48:09.960 most of

00:48:10.520 you, but

00:48:11.660 I could

00:48:12.000 actually

00:48:12.340 probably save

00:48:13.740 a life right

00:48:14.400 now, so I'm

00:48:15.320 going to do

00:48:15.580 it.

00:48:16.180 So I'm going

00:48:16.580 to give you

00:48:16.920 a tip that

00:48:17.400 might save

00:48:18.080 a life.

00:48:19.440 Here it

00:48:19.680 comes.

00:48:20.740 Did you

00:48:21.200 know, you

00:48:22.380 probably knew

00:48:22.780 that fentanyl

00:48:23.440 is the most

00:48:24.180 dangerous of

00:48:24.880 the drugs, but

00:48:25.940 did you know

00:48:26.700 that the

00:48:29.240 fentanyl could

00:48:29.900 be inside

00:48:30.640 heroin,

00:48:32.400 cocaine,

00:48:33.720 molly,

00:48:34.500 meth, and

00:48:35.840 counterfeit

00:48:36.460 pills like

00:48:37.100 doxycontin,

00:48:38.520 adderall, and

00:48:39.260 xanax.

00:48:40.680 Basically, if

00:48:41.620 it's a powder

00:48:42.320 or a pill,

00:48:43.900 and it's

00:48:44.340 20-22,

00:48:45.560 probably has

00:48:46.900 fentanyl in

00:48:47.480 it, and

00:48:48.700 you don't

00:48:49.000 know how

00:48:49.300 much.

00:48:50.900 Now, that

00:48:52.900 knowledge might

00:48:54.400 keep one of

00:48:55.660 you alive,

00:48:56.960 because one of

00:48:57.860 you probably

00:48:58.300 has somebody

00:48:58.800 in your life

00:48:59.320 who's taken

00:49:00.320 some pills and

00:49:01.740 doesn't know

00:49:02.440 that it's

00:49:03.740 just, it's

00:49:04.720 Russian roulette.

00:49:05.500 You don't

00:49:06.040 know which

00:49:06.380 one has

00:49:06.780 fentanyl in

00:49:07.560 it, or

00:49:07.860 too much

00:49:08.260 in it.

00:49:09.780 So, just

00:49:11.180 knowing that

00:49:11.760 it's in all

00:49:12.280 the drugs, if

00:49:13.480 it's a powder

00:49:14.020 or a pill, it's

00:49:14.900 probably fentanyl.

00:49:16.800 Probably fentanyl.

00:49:18.020 Just know that.

00:49:18.980 That simple

00:49:19.500 knowledge might

00:49:20.260 help somebody

00:49:21.360 stay alive.

00:49:22.940 That is my

00:49:24.000 positive,

00:49:25.320 upbeat

00:49:25.740 thought.

00:49:28.360 Now, I'll

00:49:28.720 give you one

00:49:29.420 other thought

00:49:30.180 that is upbeat

00:49:30.960 on the economy.

00:49:33.060 What is

00:49:33.840 Warren Buffett's

00:49:35.100 primary investment

00:49:36.800 advice?

00:49:38.680 Warren Buffett

00:49:39.300 has lots of

00:49:40.240 advice, but

00:49:41.420 there's one

00:49:41.840 piece of

00:49:42.240 investment advice

00:49:43.080 that sits above

00:49:44.000 everything else.

00:49:44.860 No, it's not

00:49:45.320 hold. 0.96

00:49:45.800 It's not buy

00:49:46.340 and hold.

00:49:47.420 You'd think so,

00:49:48.180 but it's not

00:49:48.520 buy and hold.

00:49:49.260 He does talk

00:49:49.860 about diversification,

00:49:51.020 yes.

00:49:52.020 But there's one

00:49:52.780 thing he said,

00:49:54.400 buy railroads,

00:49:55.360 that's funny,

00:49:56.340 because it's

00:49:56.900 true.

00:49:57.440 Natural monopoly

00:49:58.280 is okay.

00:49:59.180 So he has lots

00:49:59.880 of investment

00:50:00.460 rules, but

00:50:01.060 there's one

00:50:01.440 that sits above

00:50:02.080 all of them.

00:50:03.260 It goes like

00:50:04.040 this.

00:50:05.540 Don't bet

00:50:06.380 against the

00:50:06.940 American economy.

00:50:08.560 That's the

00:50:09.260 number one

00:50:09.680 rule.

00:50:11.680 And he

00:50:12.560 hasn't been

00:50:12.980 wrong yet.

00:50:15.460 From the

00:50:16.420 time that

00:50:16.880 Warren Buffett

00:50:17.480 was born

00:50:18.120 to today,

00:50:20.480 his advice,

00:50:22.040 never bet

00:50:22.640 against the

00:50:23.160 American economy.

00:50:24.580 If you

00:50:25.260 had simply

00:50:25.700 done that

00:50:26.320 and nothing

00:50:27.300 else, you

00:50:28.200 would have

00:50:28.400 been rich, too.

00:50:29.660 It's the

00:50:30.300 best advice

00:50:30.900 anybody ever

00:50:31.460 gave.

00:50:31.720 And the

00:50:32.660 reason that

00:50:33.040 you don't

00:50:33.360 bet against

00:50:33.820 the American

00:50:34.280 economy is

00:50:35.060 because we

00:50:35.380 have a

00:50:35.640 degree of

00:50:36.380 freedom and

00:50:37.160 flexibility that

00:50:38.800 just apparently

00:50:39.680 doesn't exist

00:50:40.300 anywhere else.

00:50:41.140 Now, we do

00:50:41.820 have our own

00:50:42.260 problems.

00:50:42.780 We're getting

00:50:43.020 a little

00:50:43.260 ossified and

00:50:44.280 too many

00:50:45.180 rules and

00:50:45.880 regulations and

00:50:46.880 we're so

00:50:49.500 inside each

00:50:50.120 other's pants 0.94

00:50:50.800 that we can't

00:50:51.540 get anything

00:50:52.040 done lately.

00:50:53.100 But we're

00:50:53.740 still America.

00:50:54.400 America.

00:50:55.680 We're still

00:50:56.460 America.

00:50:58.040 You can throw

00:50:58.840 a lot of

00:50:59.240 problems on

00:50:59.920 top of us.

00:51:00.840 And I'm

00:51:01.020 sorry if

00:51:01.500 people from

00:51:02.440 other countries

00:51:03.660 are watching

00:51:04.080 this, of

00:51:04.500 course.

00:51:05.180 This sounds

00:51:05.620 a little

00:51:05.980 too jingoistic

00:51:09.420 or whatever

00:51:09.900 word you want

00:51:10.380 to put on it.

00:51:11.480 But betting

00:51:12.220 against America

00:51:12.980 has just been

00:51:13.760 a losing

00:51:14.180 proposition

00:51:14.720 forever.

00:51:16.060 And I also

00:51:16.820 think that it

00:51:17.420 will be a

00:51:17.820 losing proposition

00:51:18.540 for a long

00:51:19.160 time.

00:51:19.820 It's not

00:51:20.260 because of

00:51:20.660 our system.

00:51:22.560 It's because

00:51:23.180 there's something

00:51:23.820 about Americans

00:51:24.740 and it's

00:51:26.140 also something

00:51:26.740 about the

00:51:27.580 immigrant community

00:51:28.980 who comes

00:51:30.240 here, is that

00:51:31.440 they're risk

00:51:31.940 takers and

00:51:33.220 they're problem

00:51:33.800 solvers.

00:51:35.320 Am I right?

00:51:37.040 We have the

00:51:37.900 biggest collection,

00:51:38.900 I would say

00:51:39.360 the best, the

00:51:40.280 best collection

00:51:41.220 of problem

00:51:42.540 solvers.

00:51:43.600 Because there's

00:51:45.020 an entry test

00:51:47.200 to get into

00:51:47.880 the United

00:51:48.240 States.

00:51:49.680 Did you know

00:51:50.160 there's an

00:51:50.520 entry exam?

00:51:52.300 Everybody who

00:51:52.880 gets to the

00:51:53.240 United States

00:51:53.740 almost, almost

00:51:54.620 everybody who

00:51:55.180 gets here from

00:51:55.820 another country,

00:51:56.700 they had to

00:51:57.240 pass a test.

00:51:59.880 The test was

00:52:01.000 can you go

00:52:02.840 into a situation

00:52:03.720 where you don't

00:52:04.520 know what it

00:52:05.000 looks like

00:52:05.560 and make it

00:52:07.900 work?

00:52:09.200 Can you leave

00:52:10.180 your bad

00:52:10.640 situation, take

00:52:11.500 a huge risk

00:52:12.360 to come to

00:52:12.860 another country,

00:52:13.660 maybe not even

00:52:14.280 knowing the

00:52:14.660 language?

00:52:16.120 Can you come

00:52:16.920 to this country

00:52:17.460 not knowing the

00:52:18.260 language, having

00:52:19.180 nothing except

00:52:19.840 the address of a

00:52:21.920 relative you can

00:52:22.760 stay with for a

00:52:23.400 while?

00:52:23.560 That's all you

00:52:23.960 have.

00:52:25.460 You'll trade 0.99

00:52:26.200 everything for

00:52:26.800 that.

00:52:28.060 We have a

00:52:28.920 country built

00:52:30.600 by those people,

00:52:32.500 right?

00:52:33.220 And we keep

00:52:34.440 renewing it with

00:52:35.520 more of those

00:52:36.220 people.

00:52:36.840 And we keep

00:52:37.560 looking at the

00:52:38.160 wrong variable.

00:52:40.160 The variable we,

00:52:41.320 you know, because

00:52:41.700 we're all trained to

00:52:42.560 look at race.

00:52:44.020 So you got all

00:52:44.740 the, you know,

00:52:45.800 the racists who

00:52:46.680 are looking at

00:52:47.100 immigration and

00:52:47.860 saying, wait, 0.57

00:52:49.140 you know, white 0.78

00:52:49.700 people built

00:52:50.560 all this cool

00:52:51.180 stuff, but then

00:52:52.540 you're letting

00:52:53.040 all these brown 0.99

00:52:53.620 people in the 0.98

00:52:54.200 country to

00:52:55.260 replace us, say

00:52:56.260 the right-wing 0.97

00:52:57.500 racist types, and

00:52:59.180 that's going to

00:52:59.640 go bad.

00:53:00.860 But here's the

00:53:01.840 counter to that.

00:53:03.580 What do all of

00:53:04.860 the immigrants have 1.00

00:53:05.560 in common all the

00:53:06.420 way back to the

00:53:07.080 colonies?

00:53:08.500 They were all the

00:53:09.660 risk-takers.

00:53:11.100 They were all the

00:53:11.860 ones who were

00:53:12.380 confident enough in

00:53:13.540 their own abilities

00:53:14.260 that they could

00:53:15.440 jump into a really

00:53:17.240 murky situation,

00:53:19.120 and they thought

00:53:19.940 they could make

00:53:20.460 it work, and

00:53:21.820 then they did.

00:53:23.460 We have, we

00:53:24.920 have accidentally

00:53:26.240 attracted all the

00:53:28.660 people who can

00:53:29.340 pass that test,

00:53:30.760 and we've left

00:53:32.040 behind all the

00:53:32.940 people who couldn't

00:53:33.520 pass that test.

00:53:34.960 The people who

00:53:35.580 said, well, maybe

00:53:37.420 I'll just do

00:53:38.180 tomorrow what I

00:53:39.220 did today.

00:53:41.440 Right?

00:53:42.880 The people who

00:53:43.840 stayed, that's

00:53:46.120 who's running

00:53:46.640 those other

00:53:47.160 countries.

00:53:48.160 The people, the

00:53:49.580 people who had all

00:53:50.540 of the qualities it

00:53:51.540 takes to pack up 1.00

00:53:53.080 your shit and move 1.00

00:53:54.120 to the other side 1.00

00:53:54.780 of the country,

00:53:55.420 the other side of

00:53:56.720 the world, when you

00:53:57.760 don't even know the

00:53:58.580 language, and you've

00:53:59.660 got like two cents

00:54:00.460 in your pocket.

00:54:03.060 Do you want to get

00:54:04.000 in a war with

00:54:05.920 people who are

00:54:06.680 comprised of those

00:54:07.760 people?

00:54:09.160 Good luck.

00:54:11.260 If you're going to

00:54:12.000 get in any kind of

00:54:12.780 a competition, and

00:54:14.300 the only thing you

00:54:15.240 know is that there's

00:54:16.860 one country where

00:54:17.660 they all passed

00:54:18.380 that same test, they

00:54:19.940 had to do something

00:54:20.680 super ballsy that

00:54:22.300 was hard, and they

00:54:23.580 all got, they all

00:54:24.640 made it work.

00:54:25.860 And you're going to

00:54:26.660 fight against a

00:54:28.700 country that's the

00:54:29.580 people who are left

00:54:30.300 behind who didn't

00:54:31.120 have that quality.

00:54:32.640 Who's going to win?

00:54:35.480 The colonists, right?

00:54:37.500 Because they've got 0.99

00:54:38.960 balls, men and women, 0.98

00:54:41.280 we'll make this

00:54:41.720 non-sexual, they've got 1.00

00:54:43.580 balls that are bigger 1.00

00:54:44.420 than the other

00:54:44.880 countries, just by

00:54:47.060 luck, because our

00:54:48.180 system sort of

00:54:49.340 accidentally created

00:54:50.220 this test.

00:54:53.160 All right, so

00:54:53.840 that's the good

00:54:54.860 news.

00:54:55.480 There is something

00:54:56.360 special about the

00:54:57.360 American character,

00:54:59.500 and we always

00:55:00.540 overlook it, because

00:55:02.160 we're all hung up on

00:55:03.320 race, and we're hung

00:55:04.940 up on economics, and

00:55:06.580 we're looking at

00:55:07.660 crime.

00:55:08.260 Those are all

00:55:08.640 important.

00:55:09.720 They're all variables,

00:55:10.960 right?

00:55:11.380 It's all in the mix.

00:55:12.200 But the one thing we

00:55:13.780 ignore is the

00:55:14.420 important part.

00:55:15.660 There's something

00:55:16.380 special about somebody

00:55:18.600 who would take on that

00:55:19.860 kind of risk and then

00:55:20.920 make it work.

00:55:22.600 That is special, and

00:55:24.260 that is what makes up

00:55:25.260 the American DNA, is

00:55:27.460 people who will do

00:55:28.480 what Tucker Carlson

00:55:29.520 just did.

00:55:30.880 Tucker Carlson is

00:55:32.240 descended from people

00:55:34.240 who had this

00:55:34.860 characteristic.

00:55:36.460 You just watched 0.97

00:55:37.300 him piss in the face 0.75

00:55:39.360 of his employer and

00:55:41.420 the entire system.

00:55:44.960 Right?

00:55:46.120 Now, I also have an

00:55:48.400 impulse toward trouble

00:55:49.860 and risk-taking that I

00:55:52.180 deal with all the time,

00:55:53.800 because I just like to

00:55:55.680 get in trouble.

00:55:56.400 I like to take risks.

00:55:57.980 You know, not physical

00:55:58.740 risks.

00:55:59.180 I'm not so much about,

00:56:00.140 you know, extreme

00:56:00.820 sports.

00:56:01.560 That doesn't make sense

00:56:02.820 to me.

00:56:03.600 But I do think that

00:56:05.460 taking a risk to get

00:56:07.180 something done, I can't

00:56:09.260 stop doing it.

00:56:10.500 So if I could take a

00:56:11.440 risk that would maybe

00:56:13.040 be bad for me, but

00:56:14.120 somehow it would work

00:56:14.900 out for you, you, the

00:56:16.560 public, I'm at that

00:56:18.200 point in my life where

00:56:19.160 I think I'd do it, and

00:56:20.860 that would seem like a

00:56:21.780 reasonable trade-off for

00:56:22.900 me.

00:56:24.380 And we've got a country

00:56:25.940 like that.

00:56:27.880 We've got a country that

00:56:29.440 has that in their DNA.

00:56:30.940 All the other stuff, not

00:56:32.480 so important.

00:56:33.880 Not so important.

00:56:35.260 All the other stuff, you

00:56:36.500 could add it all

00:56:37.140 together, and it would

00:56:38.260 be smaller than the

00:56:40.140 fact that we attract a

00:56:41.260 certain kind of person

00:56:42.140 from every country,

00:56:44.480 every culture, every

00:56:46.040 gender that you like.

00:56:47.420 We attract the best

00:56:48.480 ones.

00:56:50.680 Let me give you

00:56:51.260 another example.

00:56:52.720 Well, can I do this

00:56:53.820 one?

00:56:56.480 Yeah, all right.

00:56:57.500 I haven't thought about

00:56:59.180 this, but I'm going to

00:57:00.240 just throw it out there.

00:57:02.040 So in the United States,

00:57:03.040 we probably have one of

00:57:04.040 the most progressive views

00:57:05.600 toward the LGBTQ community.

00:57:08.080 Is that fair to say?

00:57:09.180 We'd be among the top

00:57:10.760 countries in terms of

00:57:12.160 acceptance at this point.

00:57:14.380 Would that be fair?

00:57:16.300 Now, think about how much

00:57:17.840 talent that unlocks.

00:57:20.480 Think about it.

00:57:21.900 That the LGBT community in

00:57:23.840 the United States can just

00:57:24.960 go do whatever their

00:57:28.580 calling is.

00:57:29.700 They can be at the top of

00:57:31.300 tech.

00:57:31.680 They can be at the top of

00:57:32.700 government at this point.

00:57:34.600 And how much talent did

00:57:37.160 that unlock?

00:57:39.000 Right?

00:57:39.220 That's the American thing.

00:57:40.460 That's the thing we do.

00:57:41.980 We find this talent and

00:57:43.500 we go, you know, why don't

00:57:44.600 we unlock this?

00:57:45.800 Boom.

00:57:46.480 There it is.

00:57:48.080 So I think we're really

00:57:50.940 good at unlocking talent

00:57:52.220 and attracting it.

00:57:54.060 So that's our lasting

00:57:55.140 advantage and it's why the

00:57:56.620 Adams Law of slow-moving

00:57:58.380 disasters continues to

00:58:00.480 prove out.

00:58:00.960 We're really good at

00:58:03.120 solving problems and it's

00:58:04.440 not an accident.

00:58:05.860 We collected the people

00:58:07.060 who are good at solving

00:58:07.880 problems in one place and

00:58:09.800 said, we're going to give

00:58:10.780 you freedom now.

00:58:12.500 How does that not work?

00:58:14.580 Put all the people who are

00:58:15.540 good at solving problems in

00:58:16.780 one place and say, you have

00:58:18.840 your freedom now.

00:58:20.340 That works.

00:58:22.100 Pretty much every time.

00:58:23.240 All right.

00:58:29.860 Am I talking you into the

00:58:31.360 golden age?

00:58:32.700 Yes, I am.

00:58:34.540 Do you know how the golden

00:58:35.300 age happens?

00:58:40.180 You first imagine it.

00:58:43.140 Here's a little tip for you.

00:58:45.300 I guess it's a persuasion

00:58:46.400 tip, but it's also like a

00:58:48.260 super important life tip.

00:58:50.760 It sounds really simple, but

00:58:53.880 when you see how it affects

00:58:56.760 everything, here's the tip.

00:58:59.640 People only do what they can

00:59:01.080 imagine.

00:59:02.880 That's it.

00:59:04.400 Now, that doesn't seem like

00:59:05.220 much, does it?

00:59:06.380 But if you unpack that, I

00:59:07.720 know people hate that term.

00:59:09.200 It's like a corporate buzzword.

00:59:10.800 Let's unpack that.

00:59:11.960 But it works in this case.

00:59:14.280 Unpack it works when there's

00:59:15.580 like a small thought, but

00:59:17.160 really if you start looking at

00:59:18.480 it, it really affects

00:59:19.460 everything.

00:59:20.260 So that's what I'm talking

00:59:21.020 about.

00:59:22.620 You won't do what you can't

00:59:24.260 imagine.

00:59:24.720 Do you know how that's

00:59:25.280 important?

00:59:26.780 Okay, right now I have a

00:59:27.980 number of, as always, I have

00:59:29.920 choices in my life, right?

00:59:31.440 We all do at any point.

00:59:32.860 When I imagine the choices, I

00:59:35.560 imagine the outcomes.

00:59:37.180 I have some choices that I can

00:59:38.840 imagine the outcome with such

00:59:40.460 specificity, it's almost like

00:59:42.460 it's a movie or a picture I

00:59:43.960 could just look at.

00:59:45.300 There are other outcomes that

00:59:46.960 seem more conceptual.

00:59:47.860 Like, I can't picture them, for

00:59:51.480 whatever reason.

00:59:52.520 The ones I can't picture, they're

00:59:54.840 definitely not going to happen.

00:59:56.700 Now, that's based on a lifetime

00:59:57.860 of experience.

00:59:59.300 The stuff I can imagine the

01:00:00.740 clearest seems to happen.

01:00:03.420 So the first thing is, it's a way

01:00:04.940 to predict what you're going to

01:00:06.240 do.

01:00:07.060 Sometimes you say to yourself, I

01:00:08.300 don't know what I'm going to

01:00:08.980 choose.

01:00:10.060 Yes, you do.

01:00:11.620 You do know which one you're going

01:00:13.000 to choose.

01:00:13.760 You just haven't admitted it yet.

01:00:15.380 Here's how you know.

01:00:16.640 It's the one you can imagine.

01:00:18.260 The one you can imagine the most

01:00:19.680 clearly is the one you're going to

01:00:20.900 pick.

01:00:21.620 So when you say to yourself, I

01:00:22.840 haven't decided yet, that's not

01:00:27.180 true.

01:00:28.340 You almost always have decided.

01:00:30.600 And the way you know how you've

01:00:31.840 already decided is it's the one you

01:00:34.200 can imagine the most clearly.

01:00:36.720 Now, you might want to overrule that.

01:00:39.020 Like, once you know that that's the

01:00:40.420 rule, you might say, ooh, that has

01:00:42.640 some downsides, so I don't want to

01:00:44.000 do that.

01:00:44.600 Maybe.

01:00:45.320 But just be aware of it, that the

01:00:46.660 thing you can imagine is what

01:00:47.620 happens.

01:00:48.020 Now, in the terms of influence, if

01:00:51.500 you want to persuade somebody, you

01:00:53.940 must first get them to imagine it.

01:00:56.300 You want them to visualize it, see

01:00:58.120 the characters, have names and dates

01:00:59.820 involved.

01:01:00.820 You know, really, really imagine the

01:01:02.700 details.

01:01:03.200 And if you do that, then people can

01:01:04.380 move in that direction.

01:01:06.020 But people will not move in the

01:01:07.480 direction of things they can't

01:01:08.600 imagine.

01:01:08.900 I see what you're saying, but it's

01:01:11.260 just sort of a concept.

01:01:12.800 I don't even know what to do

01:01:13.780 about that.

01:01:14.380 It's just a concept.

01:01:18.000 So, the indication before was that

01:01:22.340 somebody asked me, am I trying to

01:01:23.800 create a golden age by persuasion?

01:01:27.480 And the answer is yes.

01:01:30.520 Yes.

01:01:31.220 And the way I'm doing that is by

01:01:32.700 describing what it would look like.

01:01:34.300 So, the more detail I put on it, the

01:01:39.240 more detail will be in your mind, if

01:01:41.120 you're listening.

01:01:42.280 And as it starts to come together, you

01:01:44.560 know, the first time you heard it, it's

01:01:45.740 a concept, the golden age.

01:01:47.280 Okay.

01:01:48.360 It sounds good, but what's that

01:01:50.280 mean?

01:01:50.840 And then I start putting some meat on

01:01:52.520 it.

01:01:53.320 And then you start imagining it.

01:01:55.440 You start imagining, you know, the,

01:01:57.860 let's say, a place that people who have

01:01:59.680 addiction go.

01:02:00.480 Or you imagine a time when we're all

01:02:05.360 3D printing and we don't need

01:02:06.960 manufacturing from China.

01:02:08.700 You can actually visually imagine 3D

01:02:11.100 printers making stuff on demand, and

01:02:14.460 you can imagine ships coming from China

01:02:16.680 and not coming anymore.

01:02:18.700 It's physical.

01:02:20.280 So, whenever you can make somebody

01:02:21.800 imagine something specific, the odds

01:02:24.700 of them moving toward it are much

01:02:26.060 greater.

01:02:26.420 So, I, and it's so, it's so obvious

01:02:30.540 that this connection exists between

01:02:32.460 imagination and then actual future

01:02:34.600 actions, that it makes me wonder if

01:02:36.740 it's the user interface for the

01:02:38.140 simulation.

01:02:40.220 In other words, maybe you were literally

01:02:43.400 unable to imagine things that are not

01:02:45.320 going to happen.

01:02:47.760 You can't imagine things that are not

01:02:50.360 going to happen.

01:02:52.140 Maybe.

01:02:52.660 While Bill says, is this guy on drugs?

01:02:57.660 No, you should see me on drugs.

01:03:00.920 If you really want some fun.

01:03:02.760 You should see me when I'm on drugs.

01:03:04.460 This is without drugs.

01:03:05.840 Imagine that.

01:03:08.460 All right, well, never bet against the

01:03:10.020 American economy.

01:03:11.180 That's my final happy thought for you.

01:03:14.260 And, uh, uh, uh, uh, successfully

01:03:24.680 persuaded him to imagine going to

01:03:26.520 high school.

01:03:27.940 Your son isn't going to high school?

01:03:33.620 That's interesting.

01:03:35.260 A micro lesson on betting.

01:03:37.100 Yeah, don't do it.

01:03:38.060 Um, you're better when not on drugs.

01:03:44.260 So somebody said that I'm better on my

01:03:47.960 live stream when I'm not on drugs.

01:03:49.680 How many of you would agree with that?

01:03:53.340 Marijuana is the only drug that I would

01:03:55.140 do.

01:03:58.700 There's a little disagreement there.

01:04:00.600 All right, so here's the question.

01:04:01.780 How would you know?

01:04:03.540 How would you know if I were on drugs or

01:04:05.500 not?

01:04:05.760 Because there was one time I told you,

01:04:08.500 but I'd also taken the wrong drug.

01:04:12.060 So I'd accidentally taken indica.

01:04:15.460 Had I not taken accidentally the wrong drug,

01:04:18.580 do you think you could tell?

01:04:23.140 Slurred speech, yeah, I'm the wrong drug.

01:04:25.080 Um, yeah, I don't think you would know if it was sativa.

01:04:43.280 Well, let me ask you this.

01:04:44.420 What percentage, I'll ask the YouTube people,

01:04:48.060 because I think the locals people know the answer to this.

01:04:49.940 What percentage of all my live streams,

01:04:52.400 this is a question for the YouTube viewers,

01:04:54.520 what percentage of all my live streams

01:04:56.160 do you think I did while under the influence

01:04:58.300 of sativa, marijuana?

01:05:01.400 What percentage do you think

01:05:02.760 in, say, the last three months?

01:05:06.700 All right, I'm not going to read the percentages

01:05:08.160 over at Locals,

01:05:09.920 because you'd know too much.

01:05:12.000 All right, so on YouTube,

01:05:13.160 I'm seeing 75, 25, 10, 26.

01:05:17.460 See how your numbers are all over the place?

01:05:21.220 The fact that your numbers are all over the place

01:05:23.260 somewhat suggests

01:05:25.060 that you can't tell the difference.

01:05:27.900 Now, it could be that some of you can,

01:05:30.380 but I wouldn't know which ones are actually right

01:05:32.340 and which ones are lucky.

01:05:35.460 You imagine that Uncle Scott cares about you.

01:05:37.500 Well, I do.

01:05:38.720 I do.

01:05:39.680 That is literally true.

01:05:40.660 I do care about you.

01:05:43.160 One million percent.

01:05:46.900 That is the correct answer.

01:05:50.960 Yeah, I'm a slow speaker generally.

01:05:53.420 That's why you should always listen to this

01:05:55.160 at 1.75 speed.

01:05:58.880 All right, well, I don't know

01:05:59.880 what the real answer is myself.

01:06:02.420 Probably 50%.

01:06:03.600 I think the real answer is probably half,

01:06:06.580 something like that,

01:06:07.160 in the last three months.

01:06:09.100 But I guarantee that the days

01:06:11.980 that people said,

01:06:13.160 wow, that show was good.

01:06:14.940 So I get feedback after the show, typically.

01:06:17.840 And people either contact me and say,

01:06:19.960 oh, that was really good, or not.

01:06:21.880 And there's no difference 0.97

01:06:23.620 in the feedback,

01:06:26.320 no matter what situation I'm in.

01:06:28.960 No difference.

01:06:29.540 The first time I learned that was when I was trying to decide

01:06:34.440 what comics to submit to become a cartoonist.

01:06:38.660 And so this was 1988.

01:06:41.160 And I put together 50 sample,

01:06:43.040 what became the Dilber comic.

01:06:45.220 And I was going to send them off to the cartoon syndicates

01:06:47.480 to see if they would give me a contract to be a cartoonist.

01:06:52.140 And I would have my friends over,

01:06:53.940 and I'd take these 50 comics I'd made,

01:06:55.960 and I'd say,

01:06:56.660 can you help me weed out the good ones from the bad ones?

01:07:00.520 And then I'll just send in the good ones.

01:07:03.860 So I had all my friends come in individually,

01:07:06.460 so they couldn't be influenced by each other.

01:07:08.660 And they would sort them into the good or the bad pile.

01:07:11.140 And what I noticed was there was no correlation.

01:07:14.480 No correlation at all.

01:07:15.720 Not even a little bit.

01:07:17.020 There was nobody who thought my best comic...

01:07:19.100 There was no comic that everybody thought was a good one.

01:07:22.720 Some people loved this one.

01:07:24.240 Some people loved that one.

01:07:25.220 It was completely random.

01:07:27.100 No correlation whatsoever.

01:07:29.100 So you know what I did?

01:07:30.820 I sent all 50.

01:07:33.080 Because I didn't know which side the editor would be on.

01:07:37.580 Would the editor be on, you know,

01:07:39.140 one of the ones who said they love these or hate them.

01:07:42.620 So I just sent all 50

01:07:43.900 and got a contract to become a syndicated cartoonist.

01:07:48.160 So you should be aware

01:07:50.840 that people are really, really, really bad at, you know, perception.

01:08:00.960 The editor was impressed by productivity.

01:08:03.420 I think so.

01:08:04.440 I think so.

01:08:05.380 Yeah, that was my instinct.

01:08:06.480 My instinct was that proving you could do a lot of it

01:08:10.580 would be as important as proving you could do, you know, some good work.

01:08:15.240 Because there are cartoonists.

01:08:17.100 I'm not going to name names.

01:08:19.420 But within the cartooning industry,

01:08:21.760 all the cartoonists know who I'm talking about.

01:08:25.560 There's a specific cartoonist.

01:08:27.600 Probably one of the best you've ever seen.

01:08:29.900 All right.

01:08:30.540 I'm not going to be specific.

01:08:31.820 But let's say one of the,

01:08:33.220 definitely one of the top 10 or 15 of all time.

01:08:37.540 And that cartoonist is really good,

01:08:40.660 but really has trouble meeting deadlines.

01:08:43.740 And it's just a constant, like, struggle

01:08:46.100 for the publishers and the syndicate.

01:08:50.660 So, yeah, it does matter.

01:08:52.000 It really does matter.

01:08:53.300 So quality is great,

01:08:54.900 but you've got to be able to produce quantity as well.

01:08:57.180 So, don't, you know,

01:09:00.060 I'm only going to tell you what name it isn't.

01:09:04.380 Because I don't want you to have that impression.

01:09:06.560 Stefan Postis is the most productive cartoonist since me.

01:09:12.860 You know, he does more side jobs.

01:09:15.480 He's got an entire line of children's books

01:09:19.380 that's a huge success.

01:09:20.640 On top of a comic strip that's a huge success.

01:09:23.120 He's working on a movie.

01:09:25.040 You know, he does speaking gigs.

01:09:26.440 I mean, he's got all kinds of stuff going on.

01:09:30.640 All right.

01:09:31.200 No more guessing.

01:09:32.860 And that, ladies and gentlemen,

01:09:34.580 is the conclusion of the best thing that's ever happened

01:09:37.720 in the history of civilization.

01:09:40.280 And I'll talk to you tomorrow, YouTube.

01:09:41.480 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - July 06, 2022

Episode 1796 Scott Adams： What To Do With All Of The Dangerous Teens

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