Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1824 Scott Adams： Trump Remains The Most Relevant Political Figure, J6 Hearings Backfired

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the Golden Age, the highlight of civilization.

00:00:10.100 It begins here.

00:00:11.100 We're going to recognize it here and will it into existence.

00:00:15.660 Yes, are you tired of all the negativity, all the fighting on other outlets?

00:00:21.540 Well, today, it's going to be all unicorns and rainbows and whatever else you like, because

00:00:29.160 the Golden Age is coming, and it doesn't come by itself.

00:00:33.080 We've got to pull it a little bit, give it a little yank.

00:00:35.760 That's what's going to happen today.

00:00:36.980 And if you'd like to enjoy the feeling of going to another level of awareness and realizing

00:00:44.500 the Golden Age, all you need is a cup or mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein, a

00:00:48.680 canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:51.680 Boom.

00:00:52.360 Did it right that time.

00:00:53.280 Join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine here of the day, the thing that

00:00:58.360 makes everything better.

00:01:00.740 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.

00:01:04.820 Go.

00:01:05.300 Oh, my God.

00:01:13.400 My God.

00:01:15.020 Wait, wait.

00:01:16.940 I don't think I can resist a double sip.

00:01:23.000 Oh, God, did I need that?

00:01:27.840 Whew.

00:01:28.800 Well, let's talk about Paul Pelosi's DUI.

00:01:33.740 You know, Nancy Pelosi's husband got stopped for a DUI recently, and today we learned that

00:01:40.420 he allegedly, and I guess we should highlight allegedly, because this does sound a little

00:01:46.220 bit too on the nose.

00:01:49.100 I have to admit, it doesn't sound true, but I'm going to tell you what is allegedly reported.

00:01:54.480 That he handed officers his driver's license and an $1,199 foundation card, which is a group

00:02:06.660 that supports highway patrol and provides scholarships for their children.

00:02:12.740 Now, here's the thing.

00:02:19.720 Here's the thing.

00:02:21.480 If one of you, you know, some unfamous, less rich person, had tried this approach, I would

00:02:31.180 have said, ah, worth a try.

00:02:33.780 Worth a try.

00:02:34.920 Right?

00:02:35.160 If it's a normal person, I'd say, ah, whatever.

00:02:38.460 Everybody's got an angle.

00:02:39.660 Ah, it's worth a try.

00:02:41.560 But when somebody of Nancy Pelosi's husband's prominence, if this is true, it just makes

00:02:50.440 you want to slap him, doesn't it?

00:02:53.880 Now, regardless of whether this trick works, and I assume it doesn't, because he got arrested, 0.60

00:02:59.460 right?

00:02:59.600 So it looks like it doesn't work. 0.98

00:03:01.720 But if it's true, you just want to slap him. 0.81

00:03:06.260 Am I right?

00:03:07.300 There's just something about the combination of who it was, plus the technique.

00:03:13.160 See, that technique should be the thing that's used by people who are not powerful.

00:03:18.320 I guess here's the thing that bothers me.

00:03:21.140 People who are not powerful have a set of strategies, and then people who are powerful have a different

00:03:27.180 set of strategies.

00:03:27.980 And if he had to use a strategy that typically you'd associate with the less powerful people,

00:03:35.340 I don't know.

00:03:36.380 It just feels like he's taken something away.

00:03:41.140 I don't know what it is about it.

00:03:42.480 There's just something about this story that goes, ugh, ugh.

00:03:46.960 Now, apparently there's some kind of drug that was discovered in him as well.

00:03:50.780 Who knows?

00:03:51.180 Who knows what that is?

00:03:52.760 Maybe we'll find out.

00:03:53.920 Maybe we won't.

00:03:54.560 But remember, everything you hear about this situation is alleged.

00:03:59.060 Alleged.

00:04:00.000 He has not been proven guilty in a court of law.

00:04:03.300 And that has to mean something in our United States.

00:04:08.620 It has to mean something.

00:04:11.460 All right.

00:04:11.760 How would you like to see critical race theory and things related to it destroyed in the classroom?

00:04:23.680 Well, I'm pretty close.

00:04:27.320 You don't see it coming yet, because there's no signs of it yet.

00:04:32.340 I'm pretty close.

00:04:33.360 It goes like this.

00:04:35.760 What would be the opposite of critical race theory?

00:04:39.300 Because that's kind of missing, isn't it?

00:04:41.780 Have you noticed what's missing?

00:04:43.680 If you say, hey, I don't like this critical race theory, the alternative is just to be silent.

00:04:50.060 That doesn't feel like enough, does it?

00:04:53.840 So if you're noticing, hey, why do we keep, you know, it feels like we should be fighting against this thing, if you're against critical race theory, you're fighting against it, and it feels like you're not winning, it's because you don't have any tools.

00:05:07.820 You don't have anything to fight with.

00:05:10.160 You're basically saying, basically somebody's shooting you in the head, and you're saying, I wish that weren't happening.

00:05:15.760 I sure wish you weren't shooting me in the head.

00:05:19.860 How often does that work? 0.98

00:05:22.760 It doesn't.

00:05:23.860 You have to have something to fight back with.

00:05:26.640 Now, some people are threatening lawsuits, and, you know, that's all good, if it works. 0.99

00:05:31.600 But maybe you didn't see this coming, but there actually is a solution.

00:05:37.800 There is a solution.

00:05:39.800 It's strategy.

00:05:40.720 The solution to CRT, which conservatives would characterize it, now this is, of course, a right-leaning characterization.

00:05:51.140 Everybody's got a narrative, right?

00:05:52.760 So it doesn't mean it's true, but the way it's portrayed is that it's a victim mentality.

00:06:00.260 If you don't like the victim mentality, you better have something better.

00:06:04.520 Just saying I don't like the victimhood that CRT sort of implies, that doesn't buy you anything.

00:06:13.780 You've got to tell us what's better.

00:06:16.920 What would be better?

00:06:19.120 Strategy.

00:06:20.760 Strategy would be better.

00:06:22.060 It's a high ground, right?

00:06:23.960 Victimhood is the low ground.

00:06:25.340 Strategy is the high ground.

00:06:26.800 And the strategy is, how do you use your victimhood in the best possible way, right?

00:06:31.820 Now, the worst possible way is just complain and say, give us stuff because we're victims.

00:06:36.780 That's the worst way.

00:06:37.860 It might work.

00:06:39.000 I'm not saying it doesn't work.

00:06:40.340 It works a lot.

00:06:41.520 But it's still the worst way.

00:06:44.640 The best way is to have a strategy for success and just make your strategies for success work.

00:06:50.640 Because if you're succeeding, you're basically fixing the current generation and the ones after that as well.

00:06:57.780 So how could you possibly fix it?

00:06:59.800 Well, what if there were a book that taught you how to succeed, no matter how much of a victim you might be?

00:07:09.440 Wouldn't that be useful?

00:07:11.260 And suppose that book had been written for somebody 14 years and up, so that they could get it at about the time that they're developing a little bit of critical thinking.

00:07:20.080 If only such a book existed.

00:07:23.900 It's called Had It Failed Almost Everything and Still Went Big, and I wrote it in part for exactly this.

00:07:32.000 Now, more specifically, I was sort of thinking of my own stepkids as I wrote it.

00:07:37.000 But it was written for the purpose of battling this exact thing before it had a name.

00:07:44.280 You know, we always thought about people expressing their victimhood as their primary, let's say, philosophy or operating system of life.

00:07:53.900 And before I had any kind of a name, there was that book that said, how about a strategy instead of a complaint?

00:08:03.860 And the problem is that that book sort of exists outside the, you know, the educational system.

00:08:11.460 But as of yesterday, I did offer, and I think it's been accepted, I haven't checked yet, for somebody who's a professional who makes curriculums and lesson plans out of books.

00:08:24.860 So my book can now be turned into, I'm working into a lesson plan, and I'm not telling you that my book needs to be the one.

00:08:33.680 I can think of maybe, there might be five to ten books that just jump out as something that even a teenager should be exposed to.

00:08:42.000 Maybe in summary form, perhaps in summary form, but definitely the material, right, should be made available to kids.

00:08:48.900 And if you could make homeschoolers learn strategies for success while the rest of the world is learning to just read and write and complain, you've fixed everything.

00:09:02.960 Because the market competition will take care of the rest.

00:09:07.280 So right now you've got a situation where you've got public schools not doing so great, and then you've got homeschoolers that we don't understand.

00:09:14.860 If you're involved in homeschool, you probably do understand it.

00:09:20.360 But do you understand that people not directly involved in homeschool don't exactly know what it is?

00:09:27.040 Because it feels like mom has to stay home and be the teacher, and she doesn't know how to do that.

00:09:32.400 I mean, that would be like the sexist way to look at it.

00:09:36.800 But don't you think that homeschool needs like more of a marketing kick?

00:09:42.980 Like, suppose I said to you, public school is where you learn to read, write, and complain,

00:09:48.540 and homeschool is where you learn to read, write, and strategize, or have a strategy for success.

00:09:55.600 Am I done?

00:09:58.360 That's it.

00:09:59.540 That's the end of critical race theory.

00:10:02.040 You just need to offer an alternative, and it hasn't been offered.

00:10:05.040 But the alternative exists in the sense that all the pieces are there.

00:10:07.920 You just have to package it up and put it in a narrative, which I'm doing for you right now.

00:10:13.800 Let me say it again.

00:10:15.100 Public school is where you learn to read, write, and complain about your victimhood, about anything.

00:10:22.760 You know, your gender, who knows, whatever.

00:10:25.240 Complain.

00:10:26.500 Homeschool is where you learn to read, write, and have a strategy for life's success.

00:10:32.480 It's over.

00:10:34.120 It's over.

00:10:34.680 That contrast is, first of all, something that everybody would get right away, but not

00:10:43.460 until you can prove it, right?

00:10:45.940 Right now, homeschool is not that.

00:10:48.780 Homeschool is not that.

00:10:50.120 Homeschool is just another place to learn to read and write with less complaining.

00:10:53.880 But there's a real big difference between less complaining and an active strategy for success

00:11:00.220 that has been tried and works for countless people all over the place, right?

00:11:05.320 You can't compare those two things.

00:11:07.840 So the title of the book is called How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big.

00:11:12.660 You can see the cover of it over my shoulder there.

00:11:15.320 It's been out for a number of years, and the reason that it's getting more attention now

00:11:20.220 than it did when it first came out, and it was very successful when it first came out,

00:11:24.540 but it continues to grow in, I would say, importance.

00:11:29.100 Because so far, nobody has reproduced something that is so directly,

00:11:33.860 so directly gives you advice from teenager up on how to organize a life

00:11:39.400 based on just plain, obvious statistical truths, you know, nothing that's out there.

00:11:45.020 So anyway, in a few weeks, I will probably have a curriculum and class plan.

00:11:51.940 I will make that available to homeschools.

00:11:54.360 And I don't think that necessarily my book needs to be the thing that solves everything,

00:11:58.620 but it's the narrative.

00:12:00.800 If the one thing I can do is consolidate the narrative around homeschool

00:12:04.420 is reading and writing and strategy.

00:12:07.500 You tell me that you give that choice to a black, single parent.

00:12:14.340 You say, I'll give you a choice. 0.96

00:12:16.040 You can go read, write, and complain,

00:12:18.100 or you can go read, write, and have a strategy for success

00:12:20.880 that's so well proven it's almost guaranteed if you don't become an addict.

00:12:27.600 Every parent is going to say yes to that, if they have the option.

00:12:30.240 Right now, they don't have the option.

00:12:32.160 Yeah, yeah, I'll put the math in there, don't worry about it.

00:12:34.580 But you get the point.

00:12:35.440 All right, I'm going to tell you over and over again until it becomes true

00:12:41.820 that we're seeing advanced signals of the golden age approaching.

00:12:47.360 And they're a little bit invisible until I call them out.

00:12:51.600 Now, one is a little bit more visible, so that's what reminded me.

00:12:55.320 But I'd like to congratulate Jon Stewart

00:12:57.400 and all the people who worked on this burn pit pact bill,

00:13:02.480 the major health care legislation for veterans.

00:13:07.220 Now, I don't know the details of the bill,

00:13:08.860 but I know that Republicans and Democrats voted for it,

00:13:12.860 so I'm guessing they did something right.

00:13:15.280 I still don't understand what took so long.

00:13:18.120 I'm a little confused.

00:13:19.620 Maybe it was incorrect information, something.

00:13:23.860 Maybe it was a strategy.

00:13:24.800 I don't know.

00:13:25.320 I'm a little bit confused about why it did work, didn't work, and now it works.

00:13:30.480 I missed a little bit in the between, but it doesn't matter.

00:13:33.860 So here's the thing I'd like to call out.

00:13:35.500 Can we, can we, the audience that's watching this,

00:13:41.540 mostly right-leaning people, I suspect,

00:13:47.360 can you give Jon Stewart a completely butt-free, no butts,

00:13:55.020 congratulations and thank you?

00:13:57.360 Can you do that?

00:13:58.820 Can we, without any reservations, just say, that was good?

00:14:03.540 Yeah, right.

00:14:04.400 And that's what the Golden Age looks like.

00:14:07.820 Now, how many of these examples are there?

00:14:12.420 How many examples are there?

00:14:13.720 Some people say no.

00:14:17.080 Really.

00:14:18.720 So here's what I think.

00:14:20.480 I think the Democrats or the Republicans who voted for the bill

00:14:24.800 must have been satisfied that it was clean enough, right?

00:14:29.280 I believe that your information about it being a dirty bill with pork in it

00:14:34.300 turned out to be not as true as you think.

00:14:38.920 I think maybe that wasn't quite accurate information.

00:14:42.000 I think that there was some stuff that wasn't maybe on point,

00:14:46.420 but it's still good for veterans and health care.

00:14:49.220 I feel like that's what was happening, something like that,

00:14:51.680 but that's speculation.

00:14:53.100 The fact is, it doesn't matter.

00:14:55.680 It doesn't matter.

00:14:56.600 If both the Democrats and Republicans voted for it,

00:14:59.760 that's good enough for me, for now.

00:15:02.660 Have I read it?

00:15:04.700 Would it make a difference?

00:15:06.620 If I read it, would it make a difference?

00:15:09.260 No.

00:15:11.160 Keep in mind that Scott doesn't read or do research.

00:15:14.260 You're correct.

00:15:15.260 One of the things that I try to do for you

00:15:17.280 is to take your point of view in some situations,

00:15:21.160 and this is one of them.

00:15:22.400 In other words, as a consumer of the news,

00:15:25.400 I'm also criticizing the news sources,

00:15:28.840 because I haven't seen a news source

00:15:30.920 that told me what's happening, have you?

00:15:33.560 Have you seen a right-leaning or left-leaning news source

00:15:36.620 that accurately told you what was in the bill?

00:15:39.020 I haven't even seen one try.

00:15:41.460 I've read all the headlines every day,

00:15:45.000 left and right.

00:15:46.180 I make sure I look left and right.

00:15:49.040 I've not seen anybody even say what was in the bill.

00:15:52.360 So, you know, I feel like that's the most important thing

00:15:56.640 to call out is that we're not told what's in the bill.

00:15:59.280 And I believe there should be a law

00:16:00.840 that says you should have those bills labeled

00:16:03.040 so the public can understand them.

00:16:05.360 But anyway, I'm going to congratulate John Stewart,

00:16:09.960 because I think he was on the side of good,

00:16:11.820 and he got what he wanted,

00:16:13.320 and the veterans got what they wanted,

00:16:14.720 and maybe it's the golden age.

00:16:17.580 Maybe it is.

00:16:19.640 Well, so yesterday, I think it was,

00:16:23.140 I asked this provocative question,

00:16:27.140 what is wrong with Stephen King?

00:16:29.520 How is it that he can write all these best-selling books, 1.00

00:16:32.980 and yet, when he tweets, he looks like a moron? 0.99

00:16:36.360 Now, it could be the problems on my end. 1.00

00:16:40.040 Can't rule that out.

00:16:41.360 So one of the possibilities is it's just me,

00:16:43.480 but I know a lot of you see it too,

00:16:45.860 and if you have the same cognitive dissonance

00:16:49.060 or confirmation bias I do,

00:16:50.580 well, maybe you see it the same way.

00:16:52.560 But to me, it looked like there was a huge disconnect

00:16:56.160 between the way he tweets

00:16:58.280 and the quality of the commercial products he's creating.

00:17:03.400 Now, I don't have this feeling

00:17:04.800 about everybody who disagrees with me, right?

00:17:08.940 Just taking the prior point,

00:17:11.060 if John Stewart disagreed with me on something,

00:17:13.540 I don't know if he does,

00:17:14.680 but if he did, I would say,

00:17:17.300 well, there's a smart person with a smart background,

00:17:20.580 saying things that I disagree with, 0.94

00:17:23.020 but it's not because he's dumb or drunk or something, right? 0.76

00:17:26.100 Like, you never say to yourself, 0.98

00:17:27.540 huh, John Stewart must be drunk today.

00:17:31.540 At least it always sounds smart,

00:17:33.180 even if you disagree with it.

00:17:34.560 But Stephen King's different.

00:17:35.760 He doesn't sound smart when he disagrees with me.

00:17:38.480 It sounds like there's something wrong.

00:17:39.660 And so I asked Joshua Lysak for an opinion,

00:17:46.060 and I retweeted his thread,

00:17:48.420 in which he goes into some detail,

00:17:50.220 and I would recommend it to you on the following basis.

00:17:54.620 You could make an entire college class

00:17:57.340 around Joshua Lysak's tweet thread.

00:18:01.420 There's so much in there.

00:18:02.540 There's so much technique put into the thread

00:18:06.560 that you should read it for the technique

00:18:09.280 even, well, even more than, I think, the topic.

00:18:14.180 The topic is really interesting,

00:18:16.240 but the technique he puts into it is,

00:18:19.980 that's just a lesson.

00:18:22.040 And what you're seeing in particular from Joshua,

00:18:24.500 I like to call this out whenever I see it,

00:18:26.540 is somebody who has intentionally built a talent stack,

00:18:29.760 which is a set of talents that work well together.

00:18:34.180 So he's a ghostwriter for a number of people.

00:18:38.300 So the first thing he gets for free

00:18:39.880 is that he ghostwrites for people

00:18:42.020 who are on opposite sides of things.

00:18:45.300 So he actually has the experience of writing

00:18:47.820 arguments that are opposite of each other.

00:18:50.720 Do you know what that does for your brain?

00:18:53.180 Good stuff, right?

00:18:55.060 If all you did is say,

00:18:56.200 I'm going to be a ghostwriter for people

00:18:57.820 on the political left or the political right,

00:19:00.260 you would talk yourself into their point of view

00:19:02.340 by writing it over and over.

00:19:03.880 That's scientifically demonstrated in studies, by the way.

00:19:07.780 If somebody is asked to just write down an opinion,

00:19:10.980 physically write it,

00:19:12.560 that is not their own opinion,

00:19:14.320 they can actually talk themselves

00:19:15.760 into the opposite of their opinion

00:19:17.340 just by the process of writing down the other opinion.

00:19:21.120 It's a thing.

00:19:22.180 Now, you could argue that,

00:19:24.060 like most studies, they're not reproducible.

00:19:25.900 But I choose to believe that's probably true

00:19:28.320 because it agrees with everything I know about brains.

00:19:32.220 But Joshua takes business on both sides,

00:19:34.940 and so he gets to see both sides of pretty big topics.

00:19:38.920 That's a talent.

00:19:41.320 He also demonstrates probably the best marketing

00:19:44.140 I've ever seen on Twitter.

00:19:45.880 I've never seen anybody market better on Twitter.

00:19:49.240 Case in point, the very thread I'm talking about

00:19:52.180 gets you all hooked on the topic,

00:19:55.400 but then he embeds a little advertisement

00:19:57.140 later down in the thread

00:19:58.820 when you can easily accept it.

00:20:01.220 Because he's created enough value for you

00:20:03.420 that when you get to something

00:20:04.800 that's clearly a little promotional bit,

00:20:07.340 you're like,

00:20:07.760 ah, okay, I actually am interested in that

00:20:10.320 because everything else was so good.

00:20:12.580 Well, good to know that he's got a product too.

00:20:14.440 And then, of course, he's learned persuasion,

00:20:18.400 hypnosis, I think.

00:20:19.880 You can see reciprocity built in.

00:20:21.800 That's a persuasion technique.

00:20:23.660 So, for example, he mentioned something good about me

00:20:25.780 in the thread.

00:20:28.200 What's that going to do?

00:20:29.920 Well, first of all, it's going to make me retweet it.

00:20:33.120 If I hadn't already liked the content,

00:20:35.480 I was going to retweet it anyway.

00:20:37.320 But that would have been a little extra kicker.

00:20:39.640 So you can see all the techniques of persuasion in it.

00:20:42.020 You can see all the writing technique,

00:20:43.740 which is just the top-level commercial quality

00:20:46.940 you could ever see.

00:20:48.360 Marketing, 100%.

00:20:49.880 And it's just a strong package.

00:20:52.560 So you should read it for that reason.

00:20:55.060 I'll give you just a preview.

00:20:57.340 He starts with three theories

00:20:58.860 about why Stephen King could be tweeting

00:21:00.580 so differently than the quality of work suggests.

00:21:04.500 One would be substance abuse.

00:21:06.320 That's in the public domain.

00:21:07.900 We know that he was a long-term substance abuser,

00:21:11.300 Stephen King was.

00:21:12.500 We know he had a serious accident

00:21:15.280 that presumably caused some head trauma.

00:21:18.580 Does that make you the same when you're done?

00:21:21.200 We don't know, but it's certainly an open question.

00:21:25.180 But the more interesting part which he develops

00:21:27.560 is the fiction writers have overactive imaginations.

00:21:32.000 And if you write fiction,

00:21:34.120 and in the first chapter,

00:21:35.520 I think this is the example that Joshua uses,

00:21:37.700 if there's a rifle hanging over the fireplace

00:21:40.960 in the first chapter,

00:21:42.580 it's going to be important later on

00:21:44.740 because that's how fiction is written.

00:21:48.080 But in the real world,

00:21:50.180 you see all of these things that don't mean anything,

00:21:52.480 and they never will mean anything.

00:21:54.600 They're just coincidences.

00:21:56.320 And all the coincidences could be interpreted

00:21:58.260 by a fiction writer

00:21:59.360 who has wired their brain

00:22:01.140 to think everything matters.

00:22:02.960 It's just an automatic thing.

00:22:04.340 If you're in that mode,

00:22:05.800 everything matters,

00:22:06.660 every piece of evidence

00:22:07.900 will have it roll later on in the book.

00:22:11.900 And then you look at the real world,

00:22:13.200 and you see all this stuff

00:22:15.140 that really doesn't mean anything,

00:22:16.840 and suddenly your confirmation bias just kicks in

00:22:19.080 and says,

00:22:19.340 yeah, this means something.

00:22:20.620 Oh, yeah, I'm picking up the hints.

00:22:22.500 Oh, a lot of people don't see this,

00:22:23.880 but I'm seeing that gun over the fireplace

00:22:25.960 in the first chapter.

00:22:27.920 It's an interesting theory.

00:22:29.760 And it's based on the fact

00:22:31.260 that whatever you're doing often

00:22:33.380 is the way you wire your brain.

00:22:37.120 If you have a brain that's looking for your victimhood,

00:22:42.020 what do you do to your brain? 0.91

00:22:44.900 Hey, today I think I'll go out

00:22:46.600 and look for some victimhood of myself.

00:22:50.260 And then tomorrow I'm going to go out

00:22:51.660 and look for some victimhood. 0.97

00:22:53.200 And hey, there's some other people talking.

00:22:55.700 What's their victimhood?

00:22:57.660 You can talk yourself into that

00:22:59.360 being your operating system,

00:23:01.400 meaning your go-to reflexive way of thinking,

00:23:04.880 even without trying.

00:23:06.580 It's completely accidental.

00:23:08.640 So we've got an entire education system

00:23:10.920 that doesn't understand

00:23:11.980 some of the most basic things

00:23:14.700 about how the human mind works

00:23:16.360 and how to program.

00:23:18.120 Not even the basics.

00:23:20.600 I wonder if there are anybody else

00:23:22.380 who doesn't understand the basics

00:23:23.980 of how brains work.

00:23:25.940 Huh.

00:23:26.760 I wonder if I might mention something

00:23:28.540 later on in my presentation.

00:23:31.560 Foreshadowing.

00:23:33.920 Foreshadowing.

00:23:34.440 Well, Arizona had some elections

00:23:38.760 in the primaries, I guess, yesterday.

00:23:41.960 Blake Masters looks like he's going to be

00:23:44.220 the candidate on the Republican side

00:23:46.120 for Senate.

00:23:47.180 He is a Trump-endorsed guy.

00:23:50.820 The last I checked,

00:23:51.820 Carrie Lake was ahead,

00:23:53.100 but it's getting close, right?

00:23:54.940 Isn't the...

00:23:56.980 Is it pretty close now?

00:23:58.240 Oh, the spelling for Joshua's last name

00:24:02.420 is L-I-S-E-C. 0.99

00:24:06.740 Pretty sure if you Google that,

00:24:08.260 you'll get his Twitter account.

00:24:10.340 So Joshua Lysak.

00:24:13.240 I hope I'm pronouncing it right.

00:24:15.020 He never told me I wasn't,

00:24:16.240 so I'll just go with that.

00:24:18.200 All right, so it does look like

00:24:19.300 Trump is still the kingmaker.

00:24:20.540 Am I correctly reading

00:24:23.880 the news from last night?

00:24:27.520 Am I correctly reading

00:24:29.300 that Trump-endorsed candidates

00:24:31.640 had a good day?

00:24:33.340 Are we all agreeing with that?

00:24:35.540 Or is that something

00:24:36.620 that the left is not agreeing with yet?

00:24:39.900 I think that looks to be

00:24:41.800 the narrative that everybody

00:24:42.900 is sort of settling on, right?

00:24:44.640 Now, that's interesting, isn't it?

00:24:47.040 This disgraced politician, Trump,

00:24:52.360 he's somehow the most important character,

00:24:57.780 and yet, and yet,

00:25:01.780 he's been out of office

00:25:03.040 and should be disgraced by now,

00:25:05.160 shouldn't he?

00:25:06.560 I hear people say Carrie Lake won, 0.97

00:25:08.800 but I checked the Fox page

00:25:11.020 just before I got on,

00:25:12.640 and it looked like it was narrowing.

00:25:15.220 So, I don't know.

00:25:17.040 So, let's talk about

00:25:22.480 the January 6th hearings backfiring.

00:25:25.260 I tweeted this,

00:25:26.340 and I'm going to give you a lesson

00:25:27.580 on how to make a viral tweet.

00:25:30.340 So, I'm going to talk about my tweet,

00:25:33.060 and then I'm going to tell you

00:25:34.360 that as I created it,

00:25:35.480 I said, oh, here's a viral tweet.

00:25:37.760 Let me check on it.

00:25:40.520 Let me check to see

00:25:41.860 if it actually went viral.

00:25:44.460 I'll bet it did.

00:25:49.560 Are you checking on it?

00:25:51.900 Some of you are checking on it yourself.

00:25:54.120 All right, let's see how many of you,

00:25:55.020 this only mounts air a little bit,

00:25:57.240 and it's already got over 300 retweets.

00:25:59.900 Generally, 300 retweets

00:26:01.520 of this quickly would suggest

00:26:03.100 it's heading to over 1,000,

00:26:05.140 which would be viral.

00:26:06.340 In my world, 1,000 retweets

00:26:09.120 would be, I would consider that

00:26:10.780 a viral tweet.

00:26:12.500 Viral, you know,

00:26:13.320 not within the world so much

00:26:14.780 as within maybe my universe.

00:26:18.260 All right.

00:26:21.940 Here's, first of all,

00:26:23.120 we'll talk about the content of the tweet,

00:26:24.500 but then secondly,

00:26:25.900 I'll talk about what made it viral.

00:26:27.200 So here's five things

00:26:29.040 no Democrat wanted,

00:26:30.220 yet the January 6th hearing

00:26:31.640 is delivered.

00:26:32.920 So it's what they didn't want,

00:26:34.120 but they got.

00:26:34.680 Number one,

00:26:35.520 it kept Trump

00:26:36.440 the most relevant figure in politics.

00:26:39.100 Is that what they wanted?

00:26:41.900 Don't feed the energy monster.

00:26:44.920 If there's one thing, 1.00

00:26:46.720 one fucking thing 0.99

00:26:48.420 you have to get right. 0.99

00:26:50.560 Here, let me give you

00:26:51.600 a visual for this.

00:26:53.060 Imagine there's a monster

00:26:55.200 from space.

00:26:55.940 It's behind a cage.

00:26:59.440 And there's a big sign on it

00:27:00.540 that says,

00:27:01.680 energy monster.

00:27:03.560 And then below that,

00:27:04.560 it says,

00:27:05.220 do not feed energy

00:27:06.660 to the energy monster.

00:27:08.340 It's the only thing

00:27:09.400 you can't do.

00:27:10.540 No matter what you do,

00:27:12.540 don't give it energy.

00:27:14.920 And so they gave it energy.

00:27:17.040 How'd that work out?

00:27:18.580 Exactly the way you'd imagine.

00:27:20.980 It worked out

00:27:22.000 exactly the way

00:27:23.360 you'd think it would.

00:27:24.040 He became the most

00:27:25.220 important person in politics

00:27:26.640 when he should have been

00:27:28.440 heading in the other direction.

00:27:30.100 If they had completely

00:27:31.400 shut him out

00:27:32.260 and ignored the entire

00:27:33.940 January 6th thing completely,

00:27:35.980 he might have been

00:27:37.500 less important.

00:27:39.280 But instead,

00:27:40.740 they made us think,

00:27:41.600 this is number two

00:27:42.420 in my tweet,

00:27:43.260 number two,

00:27:43.780 they made us think

00:27:44.300 about election rigging

00:27:45.380 until it seemed true.

00:27:46.380 If there's one thing

00:27:48.920 I can teach you

00:27:49.720 about persuasion,

00:27:50.940 it's this.

00:27:52.100 Don't think about

00:27:52.840 an elephant.

00:27:54.000 Stop it.

00:27:54.880 No.

00:27:55.360 Stop thinking about

00:27:56.140 the elephant

00:27:56.540 because there's no elephants.

00:27:57.680 There's no elephants.

00:27:58.800 No.

00:27:59.260 There's no elephants.

00:28:00.340 Stop it.

00:28:01.100 Stop thinking about elephants.

00:28:03.800 The most basic mistake

00:28:06.220 in persuasion

00:28:07.380 is to tell you

00:28:08.820 to stop thinking

00:28:09.620 about something

00:28:10.260 because it's making

00:28:11.020 you think about it.

00:28:12.020 Right?

00:28:13.160 That's what they did.

00:28:14.880 They made you think

00:28:15.760 about election rigging

00:28:18.040 until more people

00:28:19.200 were convinced

00:28:19.760 it was true.

00:28:20.800 They actually talked people

00:28:22.140 into Trump's point of view

00:28:23.320 by just talking about

00:28:24.880 election rigging

00:28:25.560 over and over and over again.

00:28:26.920 Even saying it wasn't true

00:28:28.200 didn't help.

00:28:29.560 Basic rule of persuasion.

00:28:32.180 Number three,

00:28:34.140 by showing people

00:28:35.480 who looked like Republicans

00:28:36.860 being hunted and jailed

00:28:39.300 and demonized

00:28:40.240 for things that

00:28:41.660 other Republicans

00:28:42.480 we now know

00:28:43.440 Republicans generally believed

00:28:45.780 as did the people

00:28:46.880 who were protesting

00:28:47.580 that they were trying

00:28:48.680 to save the Republic.

00:28:50.400 And so the January 6th hearings

00:28:51.840 made the people

00:28:52.600 who believed

00:28:53.220 they were trying

00:28:53.700 to save the Republic

00:28:54.800 look like they were

00:28:56.060 being rounded up

00:28:56.980 and jailed.

00:28:58.160 They made all Republicans

00:28:59.680 feel hunted.

00:29:01.920 Possibly,

00:29:03.520 possibly,

00:29:06.200 the biggest mistake

00:29:07.560 in politics of all time.

00:29:09.220 history might record

00:29:11.800 this as just

00:29:12.340 the biggest gaffe.

00:29:14.120 I don't know

00:29:14.760 if you could ever

00:29:15.240 top this one.

00:29:17.180 But fourth,

00:29:19.320 because nothing

00:29:20.480 is really coming of it

00:29:21.560 and it looks like

00:29:23.040 Congress looks more 0.98

00:29:24.440 useless than usual. 0.97

00:29:26.000 How would you like 0.95

00:29:26.720 to be in charge

00:29:27.620 of Congress

00:29:28.320 and the thing

00:29:29.700 that's getting

00:29:30.120 the most attention

00:29:31.080 for Congress

00:29:31.960 is the thing

00:29:32.900 that is the least useful?

00:29:34.080 the hearings.

00:29:37.000 It's the least useful

00:29:38.320 thing they could be doing

00:29:39.320 and also getting

00:29:40.940 the most attention.

00:29:42.380 Now, lately,

00:29:42.920 some of the other bills

00:29:43.640 have gotten attention

00:29:44.380 and that's much better

00:29:45.120 for them.

00:29:46.400 All right,

00:29:46.700 number five,

00:29:48.280 they debunked

00:29:49.800 their own narrative.

00:29:50.860 Basically,

00:29:51.460 they cleared the way

00:29:52.360 for Trump to return

00:29:53.400 to power

00:29:53.840 and I don't know

00:29:54.820 if that could have

00:29:55.440 happened without them.

00:29:57.020 In my opinion,

00:29:58.660 in my opinion,

00:30:00.180 the zeitgeist

00:30:00.880 will soon change

00:30:01.880 on both the left

00:30:02.680 and the right

00:30:03.220 to realizing

00:30:04.380 that the hearings

00:30:05.260 guaranteed Trump's

00:30:06.720 return to power

00:30:07.540 because they didn't

00:30:09.020 find anything

00:30:09.640 that would damn him 0.98

00:30:10.620 and put him in jail 0.98

00:30:11.520 and so it cleared him.

00:30:14.620 How many Republicans

00:30:15.800 thought to themselves,

00:30:16.780 you know,

00:30:17.920 I supported Trump

00:30:19.100 but once they dig 1.00

00:30:20.280 into this shit, 1.00

00:30:21.000 they're going to find 1.00

00:30:21.500 some bad stuff

00:30:22.500 and I'm going to

00:30:23.460 hold back.

00:30:24.920 And then they dug in

00:30:26.000 and they didn't find

00:30:27.480 any bad stuff.

00:30:28.460 In fact,

00:30:29.140 the only thing

00:30:30.080 they found

00:30:30.580 is a Harvard study

00:30:32.660 that says

00:30:33.260 that the protesters

00:30:34.220 believed they were there

00:30:35.100 to help

00:30:35.560 to fix a problem

00:30:37.860 and not create one.

00:30:39.320 They thought

00:30:39.720 they were saving

00:30:40.380 the republic

00:30:40.920 and now that's

00:30:41.620 in evidence.

00:30:43.420 This could not

00:30:44.460 have been better

00:30:45.340 for Trump.

00:30:46.700 Every part of this

00:30:47.820 worked for Trump.

00:30:49.360 Every part of it.

00:30:53.200 All right.

00:30:54.380 So,

00:30:55.000 it's already up

00:30:55.500 to 350

00:30:56.400 retweets.

00:30:59.120 Retweets.

00:31:00.220 As I'm reading it,

00:31:01.340 the retweets

00:31:02.120 are climbing.

00:31:03.220 1,300 hearts.

00:31:04.520 All right.

00:31:04.700 So,

00:31:04.900 what made this viral?

00:31:05.780 Yesterday I was asked

00:31:06.580 on the live stream,

00:31:08.340 I think yesterday,

00:31:09.360 how to write

00:31:09.880 a viral tweet.

00:31:11.960 Here's how to do it.

00:31:13.520 Now,

00:31:13.800 there's not,

00:31:14.440 it's not like

00:31:15.000 there's a formula

00:31:16.060 that if you follow

00:31:17.800 the formula,

00:31:18.500 it's always viral.

00:31:20.280 But if you don't

00:31:21.380 use these elements,

00:31:22.380 you probably

00:31:22.960 couldn't get there.

00:31:24.800 And

00:31:25.240 the elements

00:31:27.360 are,

00:31:28.620 number one,

00:31:29.560 is it something

00:31:30.400 everybody's thinking

00:31:31.280 about and

00:31:32.620 already has energy.

00:31:34.400 So,

00:31:35.020 your viral tweet

00:31:36.060 should start

00:31:36.940 with energy

00:31:37.880 that already exists.

00:31:39.200 That's rule number one.

00:31:40.700 It's very hard

00:31:41.380 to make something

00:31:41.960 that nobody's

00:31:42.700 thinking about

00:31:43.500 turn viral.

00:31:45.700 Unless,

00:31:47.020 they were all

00:31:47.600 sort of thinking

00:31:48.300 about it,

00:31:48.720 but nobody's

00:31:49.260 said it yet.

00:31:49.900 That's your best

00:31:50.500 situation.

00:31:51.520 If everybody's

00:31:52.320 thinking about it,

00:31:53.140 and everybody has

00:31:53.640 emotion about it,

00:31:54.380 but nobody's

00:31:54.840 really put it

00:31:56.060 in words yet,

00:31:57.160 that's the

00:31:57.640 perfect situation.

00:31:59.300 If everybody's

00:32:00.080 thinking about it,

00:32:00.880 but also everybody

00:32:01.640 has already

00:32:02.120 put it in words,

00:32:03.480 then you're just

00:32:04.160 one more tweet

00:32:05.020 that's saying

00:32:05.520 the same thing

00:32:06.080 as everybody else.

00:32:07.160 So,

00:32:07.420 you need to be,

00:32:08.080 you need to stand out.

00:32:09.960 So,

00:32:10.140 you need to be

00:32:10.500 different.

00:32:11.240 That's important.

00:32:12.300 But you need to be

00:32:13.060 different in a way

00:32:14.540 that agrees with

00:32:15.360 what people's

00:32:16.280 energy and

00:32:17.220 enthusiasm is

00:32:18.120 already,

00:32:18.720 you know,

00:32:19.300 prepared for.

00:32:20.840 So,

00:32:21.380 certainly,

00:32:22.160 people are looking

00:32:23.020 at January 6th.

00:32:23.960 This is on

00:32:24.480 people's minds.

00:32:25.160 So,

00:32:25.360 it had a high

00:32:25.880 level of energy,

00:32:27.000 so I got that

00:32:27.900 right.

00:32:28.960 So,

00:32:29.340 number one,

00:32:30.080 I caught the

00:32:30.780 energy and the

00:32:32.160 relevance correctly.

00:32:34.120 Next,

00:32:34.800 I did a list.

00:32:37.100 Lists tend to be 0.92

00:32:38.460 a little bit more

00:32:39.340 viral,

00:32:40.400 because they're

00:32:41.120 really easy to

00:32:42.080 consume.

00:32:43.240 People don't like

00:32:43.940 paragraphs.

00:32:45.180 And then they can

00:32:45.800 also pick out

00:32:46.540 one of the elements

00:32:48.220 and say,

00:32:48.540 oh,

00:32:48.680 I like that one,

00:32:50.040 and I'll use this.

00:32:51.040 If you can give

00:32:52.180 people something

00:32:52.880 they can use

00:32:53.700 themselves,

00:32:55.380 it becomes a

00:32:56.160 little tool, 0.97

00:32:57.100 they can use

00:32:57.700 themselves for

00:32:58.360 their own

00:32:58.740 arguments,

00:32:59.500 then it's viral,

00:33:00.500 because they want

00:33:00.920 to spread their

00:33:02.120 own arguments.

00:33:03.000 So,

00:33:03.260 here I've given

00:33:03.840 five different,

00:33:05.620 I think,

00:33:06.460 compelling reasons,

00:33:08.140 so people could

00:33:09.440 pick any one of

00:33:10.060 the five and say,

00:33:10.720 I like that one,

00:33:11.380 so I'm going to

00:33:11.840 retweet this.

00:33:13.260 Next,

00:33:13.920 I did not put

00:33:15.400 any curse words

00:33:16.160 in this.

00:33:16.600 Do you see

00:33:18.620 how often I put

00:33:19.400 curse words

00:33:20.200 in tweets?

00:33:21.720 A curse word,

00:33:23.180 even a little bit

00:33:24.120 of naughtiness,

00:33:25.340 will remove

00:33:26.320 75% of the

00:33:27.620 energy from a

00:33:28.320 tweet.

00:33:29.360 About 75%.

00:33:30.640 In other words,

00:33:31.700 it's really hard

00:33:32.460 to make a viral

00:33:33.500 tweet with a

00:33:34.320 curse word in it

00:33:35.340 unless,

00:33:37.920 unless,

00:33:39.640 the public

00:33:40.200 is also so

00:33:41.760 mad that they

00:33:43.100 will tweet a

00:33:43.740 curse word.

00:33:45.060 It's very

00:33:45.480 unusual.

00:33:45.840 So,

00:33:46.580 you have to

00:33:47.200 look for

00:33:47.800 really special

00:33:48.920 cases.

00:33:49.940 Now,

00:33:50.880 it might sound

00:33:51.840 like I'm

00:33:52.360 contradicting

00:33:52.940 myself because

00:33:54.200 I'm teaching

00:33:54.700 you how to

00:33:55.120 be viral and

00:33:55.920 also saying

00:33:56.440 that I often

00:33:57.060 tweet things

00:33:57.680 that couldn't

00:33:58.820 be viral.

00:34:00.040 If I put

00:34:00.660 the F word

00:34:01.200 in a tweet,

00:34:01.980 it's not

00:34:02.540 going anywhere

00:34:03.140 unless it's

00:34:04.380 a real special

00:34:05.100 case.

00:34:06.500 Why do I

00:34:07.180 do it?

00:34:08.480 Why do I

00:34:09.040 put the F word

00:34:10.080 in tweets

00:34:11.220 when I know

00:34:12.220 it will

00:34:12.520 suppress

00:34:13.000 their tweet?

00:34:15.840 And the

00:34:17.060 reason is

00:34:17.660 because it's

00:34:19.080 how I really

00:34:19.640 feel.

00:34:21.520 Sometimes I

00:34:22.360 tweet for

00:34:23.040 effect and

00:34:24.480 sometimes I

00:34:25.160 tweet because

00:34:26.020 that's just

00:34:26.500 what I feel.

00:34:27.360 And Twitter

00:34:27.660 is also a

00:34:28.980 place you can

00:34:29.500 say how you

00:34:29.980 feel.

00:34:30.800 So, if I

00:34:31.560 say how I

00:34:32.120 feel, I

00:34:32.600 don't

00:34:32.800 necessarily

00:34:33.300 need you to

00:34:33.960 retweet it.

00:34:35.620 Like, that's

00:34:36.180 not the game.

00:34:37.320 Sometimes I

00:34:37.900 just need to

00:34:38.340 get it off

00:34:38.660 my chest.

00:34:39.140 So, I'll

00:34:40.920 put an F word

00:34:41.500 there because

00:34:41.960 that's how I

00:34:42.420 feel.

00:34:43.520 I'd rather be

00:34:44.160 genuine and

00:34:45.040 give up a few

00:34:46.040 retweets in

00:34:46.840 those cases.

00:34:48.300 All right, what

00:34:48.620 else makes

00:34:49.060 this so

00:34:51.780 viral?

00:34:53.440 It's going to

00:34:54.480 be probably

00:34:54.900 400 retweets

00:34:55.800 before I'm

00:34:56.200 done talking

00:34:56.620 about it.

00:34:58.100 One is that

00:34:58.880 each of the

00:34:59.280 points is

00:34:59.740 easy.

00:35:00.440 You know, it's

00:35:00.760 just a simple

00:35:01.620 declarative

00:35:02.220 sentence.

00:35:04.880 And that's

00:35:05.660 all.

00:35:06.180 Basically, I

00:35:06.800 took away any

00:35:07.700 reason not to

00:35:08.460 retweet it.

00:35:09.440 I gave you

00:35:09.940 lots of

00:35:10.360 reasons to

00:35:11.000 retweet it.

00:35:11.900 I connected

00:35:12.600 it to

00:35:13.020 something that's

00:35:13.620 in the

00:35:13.820 headlines.

00:35:14.720 And I

00:35:15.420 have a

00:35:15.920 provocative

00:35:16.460 point.

00:35:17.740 Being

00:35:17.960 provocative is

00:35:19.000 important.

00:35:20.620 And it's

00:35:21.000 also useful

00:35:21.800 if it looks

00:35:23.860 like it puts

00:35:24.520 you in

00:35:24.860 danger.

00:35:26.140 The best

00:35:26.900 thing you

00:35:27.260 can do to

00:35:28.240 make something

00:35:28.760 viral, and

00:35:29.660 I'm not sure

00:35:30.180 I can recommend

00:35:30.800 it.

00:35:31.840 I'm telling

00:35:32.280 you what

00:35:32.660 works.

00:35:33.540 I'm not

00:35:33.940 recommending it.

00:35:35.120 Because I

00:35:35.440 would never

00:35:35.780 recommend you

00:35:36.420 get yourself in

00:35:37.080 trouble.

00:35:37.340 trouble.

00:35:38.280 But if

00:35:39.960 your tweet

00:35:40.480 looks like

00:35:41.120 somebody is

00:35:42.740 going to have

00:35:43.140 a bad day

00:35:43.760 because of

00:35:44.260 it, or

00:35:44.580 somebody might

00:35:45.420 get in

00:35:45.800 trouble, or

00:35:46.940 somebody's in

00:35:47.740 danger, danger

00:35:49.640 really makes

00:35:50.600 things viral.

00:35:52.000 And the

00:35:52.280 danger in this

00:35:52.920 case is to

00:35:53.760 me.

00:35:56.020 You can feel

00:35:56.860 my danger in

00:35:57.800 this tweet, can

00:35:58.500 you not?

00:35:59.560 Because look

00:36:00.620 what happened to

00:36:01.500 my career just

00:36:02.140 saying good

00:36:02.580 things about

00:36:03.240 Trump.

00:36:03.720 Trump is

00:36:06.240 barely the

00:36:06.880 subject of

00:36:07.440 this because

00:36:08.040 it's really

00:36:08.440 more about

00:36:08.860 January 6th

00:36:10.000 making gigantic

00:36:11.080 persuasion

00:36:11.680 mistakes.

00:36:13.000 He just

00:36:13.460 happens to

00:36:13.880 be the

00:36:14.120 topic.

00:36:15.400 But every

00:36:16.180 time I

00:36:16.600 associate

00:36:17.000 myself with

00:36:18.280 Trump, I

00:36:19.420 put myself

00:36:20.140 in danger.

00:36:21.820 Do you

00:36:22.120 feel that, by

00:36:22.700 the way?

00:36:23.920 You probably

00:36:24.660 feel it for

00:36:25.100 yourself, but

00:36:25.960 if you're a

00:36:26.560 public figure

00:36:27.260 and you say

00:36:28.240 anything that's

00:36:28.840 pro-Trump,

00:36:29.540 even indirectly,

00:36:30.480 this is pretty

00:36:31.000 indirect, you

00:36:33.560 feel my

00:36:34.160 danger.

00:36:35.220 When people

00:36:36.040 project danger

00:36:37.460 and it's

00:36:38.060 real, they

00:36:39.920 have to

00:36:40.160 believe it's

00:36:40.580 real, I

00:36:40.900 guess, but

00:36:41.920 if it's

00:36:42.200 real, that

00:36:43.900 makes you

00:36:44.500 a little

00:36:45.520 higher energy

00:36:46.180 situation, and

00:36:47.080 energy is what

00:36:47.740 makes you

00:36:48.100 retweet stuff.

00:36:50.100 I think you

00:36:51.820 have most of

00:36:52.300 the points, and

00:36:54.220 I think that

00:36:55.000 putting these

00:36:55.680 five things

00:36:56.300 together creates

00:36:57.100 a full

00:36:57.720 narrative, which

00:36:58.980 I think makes

00:36:59.480 it strong as

00:37:00.180 well.

00:37:00.360 If I had

00:37:01.260 made only one

00:37:01.980 of these five

00:37:02.600 points in a

00:37:03.200 tweet, you

00:37:04.220 might have

00:37:04.540 said to

00:37:04.800 yourself, oh,

00:37:05.260 that's one

00:37:05.620 good point.

00:37:06.860 There's one

00:37:07.340 good point I

00:37:07.940 agree with.

00:37:08.760 Might not

00:37:09.320 retweet it.

00:37:10.380 But if I

00:37:10.880 put five

00:37:11.740 points in

00:37:13.020 the same

00:37:13.420 tweet, you

00:37:14.880 say to

00:37:15.200 yourself, that's

00:37:15.760 a whole

00:37:15.980 narrative.

00:37:17.440 That's like a

00:37:18.160 whole zeitgeist

00:37:19.080 explained in

00:37:19.800 five points.

00:37:21.040 So that, ladies 0.96

00:37:21.660 and gentlemen, is

00:37:22.800 what makes a

00:37:26.400 tweet viral.

00:37:28.780 You're welcome.

00:37:30.360 All right.

00:37:35.300 How many

00:37:35.960 people do

00:37:36.540 you think

00:37:37.160 believe that

00:37:39.140 the U.S.

00:37:40.020 economy is

00:37:40.960 in a

00:37:41.240 recession, and

00:37:42.560 what percentage

00:37:43.320 of the country

00:37:44.040 would you

00:37:44.420 think thinks

00:37:46.340 we're not in

00:37:47.000 a recession?

00:37:47.700 Just take a

00:37:48.260 guess.

00:37:49.260 You don't

00:37:49.780 have to be a

00:37:50.360 professional

00:37:50.780 pollster.

00:37:51.700 Just take a

00:37:52.200 guess.

00:37:52.680 How many

00:37:53.140 people, what

00:37:53.700 percentage?

00:37:54.100 how did

00:37:56.780 you do

00:37:57.040 that?

00:37:59.000 What?

00:38:01.600 How are you

00:38:02.420 all guessing

00:38:02.880 correctly?

00:38:04.320 How are you

00:38:04.960 doing this?

00:38:06.440 You're not

00:38:06.900 professional

00:38:07.400 pollsters.

00:38:08.840 How?

00:38:09.660 How?

00:38:10.560 How are you

00:38:11.240 doing it?

00:38:12.320 Yes.

00:38:13.040 According to

00:38:13.540 Rasmussen,

00:38:14.980 62% of likely

00:38:18.060 U.S. voters

00:38:18.580 believe the U.S.

00:38:19.340 economy is in

00:38:20.140 a recession,

00:38:20.560 but 23%

00:38:22.340 think it's

00:38:23.160 not, and

00:38:24.400 you're guessing

00:38:24.840 25% that

00:38:25.860 rounds up.

00:38:27.480 How did

00:38:27.880 you do

00:38:28.180 that?

00:38:29.900 I think

00:38:30.620 Rasmussen may

00:38:31.420 be replaced

00:38:32.080 by your

00:38:32.800 tweets, because

00:38:34.300 do we need

00:38:35.080 Rasmussen to

00:38:35.780 do this

00:38:36.120 anymore?

00:38:36.520 You already

00:38:36.840 knew the

00:38:37.160 answer before

00:38:37.700 they even

00:38:38.000 did the

00:38:38.280 poll.

00:38:38.880 How?

00:38:39.760 How?

00:38:40.360 How did

00:38:40.720 you do

00:38:41.020 that?

00:38:43.200 Oh, we

00:38:43.800 know how.

00:38:45.640 25% of the

00:38:46.900 public will

00:38:47.620 get every

00:38:48.880 question wrong.

00:38:50.560 Now, that's

00:38:53.960 not every

00:38:54.360 time.

00:38:55.200 I say it

00:38:56.240 as an

00:38:56.540 absolute,

00:38:57.300 because it's

00:38:57.720 more provocative

00:38:58.440 that way.

00:38:59.260 It's not an

00:38:59.820 absolute, but

00:39:00.800 the number of

00:39:01.320 times you see

00:39:01.920 it, try to

00:39:03.520 unsee it.

00:39:05.880 Try to

00:39:06.440 unsee the

00:39:07.120 25% for the

00:39:08.260 rest of your

00:39:08.720 life.

00:39:09.680 Sorry.

00:39:11.360 I just

00:39:12.200 changed your 0.74

00:39:12.720 brain for the 0.72

00:39:13.280 rest of your

00:39:13.860 life.

00:39:15.160 You will

00:39:15.800 never not be

00:39:16.380 able to see

00:39:16.780 that.

00:39:18.540 Here's another

00:39:19.200 theme I keep

00:39:19.900 telling you,

00:39:20.560 is predictive.

00:39:22.260 It's a sub

00:39:23.160 theme of

00:39:23.740 follow the

00:39:24.220 money.

00:39:25.240 Remember,

00:39:25.740 follow the

00:39:26.180 money is

00:39:26.560 your best

00:39:26.980 guide to

00:39:27.700 what is

00:39:28.060 true, even

00:39:28.820 when it

00:39:29.340 doesn't make

00:39:29.740 sense why

00:39:30.180 it would

00:39:30.460 be.

00:39:31.200 It works.

00:39:33.000 And the

00:39:34.040 corollary to

00:39:34.940 that is that

00:39:35.460 the insurance

00:39:36.120 industry is

00:39:37.100 the only one

00:39:37.620 who's going to

00:39:38.020 tell you the

00:39:38.460 truth, which

00:39:40.420 is weird,

00:39:41.260 because there

00:39:41.840 are not many

00:39:42.380 entities that I

00:39:43.240 trust less than

00:39:44.260 insurance companies.

00:39:45.580 But there's one

00:39:46.160 thing I do

00:39:46.600 trust.

00:39:47.560 They like to

00:39:48.100 make money.

00:39:48.540 They do.

00:39:50.280 They like to

00:39:50.900 make money.

00:39:52.000 And so they

00:39:52.940 are really,

00:39:53.700 really serious

00:39:54.180 about getting

00:39:54.800 the risks and

00:39:55.780 data correct.

00:39:57.100 And they have

00:39:57.920 something that

00:39:58.500 you don't have,

00:40:00.140 their internal

00:40:01.040 data.

00:40:02.040 So they can look

00:40:03.040 at their internal

00:40:03.720 data and match

00:40:04.640 it to whatever

00:40:05.160 the CDC or the

00:40:06.380 government is

00:40:06.880 saying, and they

00:40:07.760 can say, huh,

00:40:09.400 something wrong

00:40:10.040 with that CDC

00:40:10.720 data.

00:40:11.620 And then they

00:40:12.240 can make a wiser

00:40:13.080 decision, because

00:40:14.380 they're going to

00:40:14.660 have two choices.

00:40:15.540 you might have

00:40:16.400 only one.

00:40:17.500 So if you see

00:40:18.260 the insurance

00:40:18.840 industry sort

00:40:21.260 to move in one

00:40:22.400 direction as a

00:40:23.280 whole, I wouldn't

00:40:25.160 necessarily listen

00:40:25.880 to one insurance

00:40:26.840 company.

00:40:27.780 But if you see

00:40:28.380 the entire industry

00:40:29.360 say, uh-huh,

00:40:30.860 we're going this

00:40:31.740 way, because that's

00:40:32.620 where the risk was.

00:40:33.780 Sorry.

00:40:34.600 I'm sorry, popular

00:40:35.800 narrative, but we're

00:40:36.880 here to make money.

00:40:38.040 We're not here to

00:40:39.000 support the narrative.

00:40:41.020 And unfortunately,

00:40:42.220 our data is moving

00:40:43.020 the narrative over

00:40:43.800 here.

00:40:44.320 Sorry about that.

00:40:46.300 And we're seeing

00:40:47.320 the beginning of

00:40:48.260 what that might

00:40:48.920 look like.

00:40:50.880 I'm going to call 0.99

00:40:52.020 bullshit on herd 1.00

00:40:53.080 mentality for 1.00

00:40:54.060 insurance companies.

00:40:55.960 Herd mentality is 0.99

00:40:56.640 very much a thing.

00:40:58.180 So herd mentality

00:40:59.480 very much affects

00:41:00.400 things.

00:41:01.220 In my opinion,

00:41:02.980 insurance companies

00:41:05.980 are as close to

00:41:07.480 immune to that

00:41:08.780 as you could be.

00:41:10.000 Because if you're

00:41:10.720 the actuarial,

00:41:11.920 you need to get

00:41:12.740 it right.

00:41:14.320 You need to get

00:41:15.300 it right.

00:41:16.200 Your money

00:41:16.900 depends on it.

00:41:18.140 And I think that

00:41:18.880 you would become

00:41:19.380 very un-woke the

00:41:21.040 moment your bonus

00:41:21.880 directly depends on

00:41:23.240 getting it right.

00:41:24.500 Now, if one

00:41:25.780 insurance company

00:41:26.620 gets it wrong,

00:41:28.280 I might say

00:41:29.920 there's somebody

00:41:31.260 who's too woke.

00:41:32.860 But if the entire

00:41:34.080 group of them,

00:41:35.380 if all of the

00:41:36.140 insurance companies

00:41:36.920 as a group start

00:41:37.820 moving in the same

00:41:38.580 direction, I'm going

00:41:41.000 to listen to that

00:41:41.780 because that's

00:41:42.740 follow the money

00:41:43.380 business.

00:41:44.480 And the question

00:41:45.060 that they're working

00:41:45.600 on is the excess

00:41:46.560 deaths.

00:41:47.960 And whether it's,

00:41:49.600 you know, I suppose

00:41:50.480 one part of the

00:41:51.160 country thinks it's

00:41:52.060 because people are

00:41:53.480 unvaccinated.

00:41:54.960 Another part of the

00:41:56.200 country thinks the

00:41:56.920 excess deaths are

00:41:57.760 because they're

00:41:59.160 vaccinated.

00:42:00.620 I will not get into

00:42:02.820 that debate today.

00:42:04.040 I'll just say that

00:42:05.000 the insurance company

00:42:05.900 is going to settle

00:42:06.620 that question for

00:42:07.420 you.

00:42:08.140 They have not done

00:42:09.000 that.

00:42:09.920 They have not yet

00:42:10.720 done it.

00:42:11.780 But I guarantee you

00:42:12.920 the insurance industry

00:42:14.900 is going to settle 1.00

00:42:15.880 this fucking question. 1.00

00:42:17.520 Maybe in a year, 1.00

00:42:18.680 maybe in two years,

00:42:19.580 but they will settle

00:42:20.620 this question.

00:42:21.600 I'm pretty sure.

00:42:22.380 I'm confident they

00:42:23.500 can do that as a

00:42:24.440 whole.

00:42:27.060 All right.

00:42:27.760 Now I'd like to

00:42:29.060 totally screw up a

00:42:30.520 narrative that you've

00:42:31.720 been enjoying for a

00:42:32.920 long time.

00:42:33.800 It has to do with

00:42:34.620 George Soros, and I

00:42:35.640 finally figured out

00:42:36.580 a narrative that

00:42:37.460 explains all the

00:42:38.840 observations.

00:42:40.200 My problem with the

00:42:41.320 Soros criticisms is

00:42:43.800 that it didn't match

00:42:44.960 all the data that I

00:42:47.460 could see that was

00:42:48.300 right available to

00:42:49.560 everybody did not

00:42:51.040 match the narrative.

00:42:53.100 And I was looking

00:42:53.760 for some kind of

00:42:54.700 explanation that

00:42:56.280 would make sense for

00:42:57.500 why Soros is in

00:42:59.540 fact, so this is part

00:43:00.860 that I'm now on

00:43:02.480 board with, it is in

00:43:04.920 fact true that the

00:43:06.560 Soros is giving money

00:43:07.880 to groups that, let's

00:43:09.240 say, are getting your

00:43:12.960 liberal prosecutors in

00:43:14.580 office and creating more

00:43:15.780 crime and all kinds of

00:43:17.040 problems.

00:43:18.220 And when Soros was asked

00:43:20.120 about that, he didn't have

00:43:21.300 a coherent answer.

00:43:23.320 And that was my first

00:43:24.620 flag that said, wait a

00:43:26.900 minute, he doesn't even

00:43:28.640 have a coherent answer?

00:43:30.580 Because the worst person in

00:43:32.500 the world has a reason.

00:43:33.560 Am I wrong?

00:43:35.980 If you talk to Adolf 1.00

00:43:37.260 fucking Hitler, he had a 1.00

00:43:39.940 reason. 1.00

00:43:41.180 He could at least explain

00:43:42.860 it.

00:43:43.400 It was a terrible reason,

00:43:45.220 but he could explain it.

00:43:47.980 Soros can't even explain 1.00

00:43:49.220 it.

00:43:50.460 What does that tell you?

00:43:52.700 I'm going to eliminate 0.99

00:43:54.580 evil genius from the 0.91

00:43:56.280 options that I'm

00:43:57.800 considering.

00:43:58.340 I don't think evil genius

00:44:00.440 is what's going on.

00:44:02.060 The other explanations of

00:44:03.600 he wants power.

00:44:07.000 Here's my personal take on

00:44:10.020 that.

00:44:11.420 People who are that rich,

00:44:14.220 that rich, and that old 0.98

00:44:17.780 are not looking for power. 1.00

00:44:20.440 That's a dumb narrative. 0.96

00:44:22.080 I would, let's see, 0.99

00:44:27.820 imagine yourself, I'll do

00:44:29.600 this in terms of allowing

00:44:30.860 you to imagine it.

00:44:31.720 Imagine you have so many

00:44:33.400 billions that you'll never

00:44:34.400 lose them, and you can do

00:44:35.620 anything you want.

00:44:36.940 Money is no longer any

00:44:38.640 object to you.

00:44:39.860 You have all the money you

00:44:40.760 want, so much money that

00:44:41.720 you're trying to give it

00:44:42.400 away as fast as you can.

00:44:44.580 You have only a few years

00:44:46.080 to live.

00:44:47.600 A few years to live, and

00:44:48.700 you know it.

00:44:49.800 Do you think that George

00:44:50.900 Soros, with a few years 1.00

00:44:52.060 to live, is looking for

00:44:53.600 personal power?

00:44:55.140 I would call that a really

00:44:57.460 low, low likelihood.

00:44:59.960 I think what he cares

00:45:01.140 about is the world he

00:45:03.220 leaves to his children.

00:45:06.280 I think the most realistic

00:45:08.120 assumption, remember, we

00:45:09.260 can't read his mind, so

00:45:11.040 everything I say about

00:45:12.280 what he's thinking is

00:45:13.160 speculation, just like you.

00:45:15.080 If you think you know

00:45:16.820 what he's thinking or

00:45:17.600 what his motives are,

00:45:18.380 that's speculation.

00:45:19.980 Everything I say is also

00:45:21.160 equal to that.

00:45:22.440 So would you agree with

00:45:23.900 me, first of all, that

00:45:25.240 anything I say about what

00:45:26.900 his motives might be, I

00:45:28.560 can't know.

00:45:29.980 I'm speculating.

00:45:31.160 So I'm saying that all of

00:45:32.200 our speculation should be

00:45:33.360 treated as equal.

00:45:34.580 Would you give me that?

00:45:37.600 Would you give me that we

00:45:38.760 can't know what he's

00:45:39.460 thinking, so that all of our

00:45:41.340 speculations start out being

00:45:42.820 equally sketchy?

00:45:44.460 The only thing I'm going to

00:45:46.740 offer you is that the

00:45:47.860 explanation I'm going to

00:45:48.880 fill out here when I'm

00:45:50.220 done will fit all of the

00:45:53.040 data, and that all of the

00:45:54.920 other narratives don't fit

00:45:56.060 the data.

00:45:56.920 That's all I'm going to say.

00:45:58.180 I'm not saying that's what

00:45:59.280 he's really thinking, and this

00:46:01.200 is an important point.

00:46:02.260 If I told you I knew what

00:46:03.340 he's thinking, that would be

00:46:04.160 crazy, and that would be

00:46:05.560 bad form. 0.78

00:46:07.080 But if I tell you there's

00:46:09.140 one explanation that fits

00:46:10.380 what we observe, and all

00:46:12.600 the rest do not, I think

00:46:13.960 that that moves the ball.

00:46:15.320 So that's what I'm doing.

00:46:17.040 Here's my hypothesis.

00:46:20.040 You ready for this?

00:46:22.400 The only thing that fits all

00:46:24.080 the data is that whoever it

00:46:26.420 is who makes the detailed

00:46:29.120 recommendations of where his

00:46:31.160 money goes, it's not

00:46:32.940 Pesoros himself.

00:46:34.840 Pesoros is not investigating

00:46:36.340 organizations and looking at

00:46:38.000 grants.

00:46:39.080 He's just sort of, you know,

00:46:40.480 blessing them when it

00:46:41.700 happened.

00:46:42.280 The only explanation that

00:46:43.800 makes sense is that whoever

00:46:45.640 is doing the grants is

00:46:47.200 getting a kickback from the

00:46:49.580 organizations they're

00:46:50.680 funding.

00:46:52.780 Do you know why that fits

00:46:54.300 all the data?

00:46:55.980 Because it would give you a

00:46:57.460 reason why Soros is funding

00:46:59.620 so many disreputable groups.

00:47:02.880 Because what kind of a group

00:47:04.360 could give you a kickback?

00:47:06.340 Now, what I mean by kickback

00:47:08.320 is this.

00:47:08.820 If you imagine that Soros

00:47:09.980 owns the money, but he's

00:47:12.580 authorized some group to

00:47:13.980 decide how to distribute it.

00:47:15.840 The group that decides how to

00:47:17.480 distribute it could either do

00:47:19.200 it honestly and just get their

00:47:21.000 paycheck, or they could look for

00:47:23.120 groups that will give them money

00:47:24.640 back personally, like a bribe.

00:47:26.900 And they'll say, if you give us

00:47:28.260 $10 million of Soros' money,

00:47:30.900 we'll make sure that an entity that

00:47:33.100 you're involved with will somehow

00:47:35.240 coincidentally get a million-dollar

00:47:36.900 contract that they wouldn't have

00:47:38.300 gotten otherwise.

00:47:39.820 Do you see how easy this is?

00:47:41.660 If you're the group in charge of

00:47:43.840 who gets the money, you would go

00:47:45.980 for the ones that are the most

00:47:48.020 sketchy, the most corrupt.

00:47:50.820 You would intentionally seek out the 0.85

00:47:52.920 most corrupt people to give the

00:47:54.520 money to.

00:47:55.000 Not all of it.

00:47:56.120 Not all of it.

00:47:56.760 Because you want to cover your

00:47:57.860 tracks by giving money to some

00:47:59.380 groups that are unambiguously good.

00:48:01.920 So you'd have, you know, let's say

00:48:03.360 30 groups or whatever.

00:48:05.280 You know, 28 of them are

00:48:06.680 unambiguously good, but you find a

00:48:09.500 few sketchy ones that will give you

00:48:10.780 a million dollars back in ways that

00:48:12.640 can't be traced.

00:48:14.980 Right?

00:48:16.520 Would Soros himself be aware of

00:48:18.520 that?

00:48:19.540 No, he would not.

00:48:20.880 Because he's not on the ball.

00:48:22.800 The one thing I can tell you for

00:48:24.040 sure is he's not quite all there yet

00:48:25.900 in the way he used to be.

00:48:27.060 I don't know how smart he used to

00:48:28.540 be.

00:48:29.560 I imagine he was quite brilliant.

00:48:31.340 I think that's what we all

00:48:32.840 understand.

00:48:33.580 But he doesn't look at it at the

00:48:34.860 moment.

00:48:36.100 And to me, it looks like anybody

00:48:37.740 could tell him anything and he'd

00:48:39.160 probably believe it because he's

00:48:41.340 that old.

00:48:42.320 So if the people giving out the

00:48:43.760 money would say to him, hey, people

00:48:46.360 are saying that, you know, we're just

00:48:49.360 creating more crime by getting all

00:48:51.000 these prosecutors their jobs.

00:48:53.800 What do you think those people

00:48:55.760 tell Soros?

00:48:57.360 I think those people tell Soros it

00:48:59.040 isn't so bad or it's temporary

00:49:01.200 or mostly it works, but yeah, in

00:49:04.080 this one case it didn't.

00:49:05.880 Don't you think he's getting a

00:49:07.020 completely different story about

00:49:09.400 how bad it is?

00:49:10.680 And if he looked at the headlines,

00:49:12.100 the headlines on the people he

00:49:13.920 doesn't trust, if you're George

00:49:15.720 Soros, most of the news about you

00:49:17.920 is fake, in my opinion.

00:49:20.440 In my opinion, most of the news

00:49:21.980 about Soros is fake.

00:49:23.140 So he probably doesn't even look at

00:49:25.000 the news to get any information

00:49:26.560 because it's all fake.

00:49:28.440 Who is he going to trust?

00:49:30.200 Well, the people he hired.

00:49:31.820 The people he hired are going to say,

00:49:33.160 everything's fine, don't believe the

00:49:34.340 news.

00:49:35.320 You know, we're giving it to really

00:49:36.560 good organizations.

00:49:37.440 We checked them really carefully.

00:49:38.880 We audited them every day.

00:49:40.120 Don't worry about it.

00:49:40.740 We got this under control.

00:49:42.180 That's just, it's just the fake

00:49:43.280 news.

00:49:43.860 It's just Fox News.

00:49:45.240 It's just rumors on the internet.

00:49:46.520 So, here is my proposition.

00:49:52.700 My explanation, which I can't confirm

00:49:55.360 in any way.

00:49:56.020 It's just an allegation.

00:49:57.720 My explanation fits all the data

00:49:59.600 because the part I did not understand

00:50:02.380 is why Soros could not explain

00:50:04.480 why he's doing something clearly bad.

00:50:06.680 Let's say the prosecutors who are

00:50:08.480 letting people out of jail and making

00:50:09.980 crime spike.

00:50:10.900 There's no way he's in favor of that.

00:50:12.720 No way he's in favor of that.

00:50:13.960 He either doesn't understand it,

00:50:16.000 doesn't know what's happening,

00:50:17.720 somebody is, you know, gaslighting

00:50:19.420 him locally, something like that.

00:50:21.880 If you tell me he's in it for the

00:50:24.260 power, you have to explain to me why

00:50:26.740 there are zero 90-plus-year-old

00:50:29.740 billionaires fighting for power while

00:50:32.100 giving away most of their fortune at

00:50:33.620 the same time.

00:50:34.940 That's the Bill Gates problem.

00:50:36.760 If you think Bill Gates is fighting

00:50:38.180 for power while giving away most of

00:50:41.040 his fortune, I just don't see it.

00:50:44.960 It just doesn't look even logical to

00:50:47.280 me.

00:50:48.220 And part of that is because my

00:50:49.560 perspective is as someone who used

00:50:51.840 to not have money and then was

00:50:54.620 lucky enough to get relatively rich.

00:50:57.320 Not as rich as those guys.

00:50:58.720 You know, nowhere near it.

00:50:59.600 But I know what it's like to get rich.

00:51:01.500 And I know that it doesn't make you

00:51:04.840 it doesn't make you evil.

00:51:08.820 You know, if you were evil when you

00:51:10.280 started, maybe.

00:51:11.600 But it does make you want to do

00:51:15.180 things for the rest of the world.

00:51:17.460 I actually think that both Soros and

00:51:19.740 Bill Gates are completely interested in

00:51:22.720 what's best for the world, but also

00:51:25.480 would be good for them, wouldn't it?

00:51:27.460 But I don't think they're in it for the

00:51:29.260 money, and I don't think they're in it

00:51:31.240 for the power.

00:51:31.900 I think they're in it for the credit

00:51:33.980 that you get when you make the world

00:51:36.640 a better place.

00:51:38.260 Has anybody figured out what I'm in it

00:51:40.100 for?

00:51:41.760 What do you think I'm in it for?

00:51:43.780 Like, I spend all this time preparing

00:51:46.260 and doing work in public.

00:51:47.880 It cost me a great deal of money.

00:51:50.340 What do you think I'm in it for?

00:51:52.420 Yeah.

00:51:52.840 I would love for people to say, you did

00:51:55.120 a good job, Scott.

00:51:57.060 Good job.

00:51:57.660 You helped the public.

00:51:59.260 Yeah.

00:52:00.440 Now, somebody's saying it's for ego, maybe.

00:52:05.120 Here's how I internally understand it.

00:52:09.840 I believe that once you've taken care of

00:52:11.900 your own needs, you naturally take care

00:52:15.200 of your family, the people closest.

00:52:17.520 Once you've taken care of yourself and

00:52:19.300 your family, and you still have stuff

00:52:22.100 left over, I believe there's an instinct

00:52:24.840 to help the larger group, the tribe.

00:52:27.540 So what you say is ego, I say is instinct.

00:52:32.140 And I think that Gates and Soros are also

00:52:34.600 working on instinct, but it looks exactly

00:52:37.440 like ego to you.

00:52:39.280 Here's why I say that.

00:52:42.500 Because I've experienced it.

00:52:44.920 And if there's anybody here who's experienced

00:52:46.400 getting rich when they didn't start that way,

00:52:50.140 ask yourself, did you help other people, if you did,

00:52:56.180 because of ego or because of instinct?

00:52:59.840 It feels like instinct.

00:53:02.380 Because I could tell you I had a very, like,

00:53:05.640 profound experience when I had more money than I needed.

00:53:09.220 Like, because it happened kind of instantly.

00:53:11.500 It was like winning a lottery.

00:53:12.960 Because for me, it was a very big check

00:53:15.100 from a publisher early in my career

00:53:17.320 where I said, this check is so big,

00:53:20.600 I might not have to work again if I don't want to.

00:53:25.240 And in that moment, I lost all of my incentive

00:53:28.180 that I'd always had all my life.

00:53:30.380 Because everything I'd done up to the point

00:53:32.780 was to make myself successful.

00:53:35.120 And then I succeeded.

00:53:37.400 And then what the hell do you do?

00:53:39.120 What do you do if your life mission

00:53:42.080 to become successful, what happens if it works?

00:53:45.760 If it works, suddenly I had this, like, transformation.

00:53:50.940 My brain just went from, oh, you took care of yourself

00:53:54.400 and now you can take care of your family easily.

00:53:57.320 How about the tribe?

00:53:58.800 How about other people?

00:53:59.580 So you can see the arc of my career

00:54:01.580 followed that pattern.

00:54:02.980 And I'm way less rich than those other guys.

00:54:05.480 Like, way less.

00:54:06.220 Not even close.

00:54:07.780 So I think it's instinct.

00:54:12.020 You say it's gratitude?

00:54:13.660 I don't think so.

00:54:15.580 I think it's instinct.

00:54:17.420 So that's my take.

00:54:19.120 So here's the full model, and you compare it to yours.

00:54:22.300 There's either these people who got super rich

00:54:25.080 and still want power,

00:54:26.580 even though they have practically unlimited power

00:54:28.920 for anything they want.

00:54:30.520 Bill Gates can make pretty much anything happen.

00:54:33.440 Does he need more power?

00:54:34.500 I don't know.

00:54:36.940 I think it's people working on instinct.

00:54:39.020 In the Soros case, I think he's poorly,

00:54:42.400 maybe poorly served by somebody down the line.

00:54:47.020 Now, let me test you.

00:54:49.700 Let me test you.

00:54:51.080 Does my assumption, and this is just an assumption,

00:54:53.900 it's not an allegation,

00:54:55.820 just an assumption,

00:54:57.380 it's a speculation.

00:54:58.400 I'll weaken it from assumption.

00:55:00.000 Assumption is even higher than speculation.

00:55:01.720 I'm going to take it all the way down to speculation.

00:55:04.900 So all of our speculations are evil,

00:55:07.100 or not evil, equal.

00:55:09.380 Maybe they're evil.

00:55:10.940 All of our speculations about what Soros is thinking

00:55:13.460 are equal, because we can't read his mind.

00:55:15.960 We can only see what he does.

00:55:18.160 And I would put my fortunes,

00:55:22.480 I would bet them,

00:55:23.620 because there's corruption below him.

00:55:25.760 And that explains everything.

00:55:28.320 What do you think?

00:55:29.040 Did I sell it?

00:55:35.420 Disagree wholeheartedly, I see people say.

00:55:38.540 I see no, way off.

00:55:41.960 I saw some people say yes.

00:55:44.580 Now, I would argue that those of you

00:55:46.540 who have been so deeply in the Soros is evil camp

00:55:50.780 are unable to hear what I'm saying.

00:55:53.580 Those of you who didn't really have a strong opinion,

00:55:56.000 one way or the other,

00:55:56.760 probably heard my explanation,

00:55:59.060 and some of them said,

00:56:00.240 oh, that looks better than the other explanation.

00:56:02.420 I think if you can't make the leap

00:56:04.340 on this one,

00:56:07.140 you have to check your thinking.

00:56:10.260 Just step back.

00:56:11.700 I'm not even going to say you're wrong,

00:56:13.100 because that part we don't know, right?

00:56:15.340 So hear me carefully.

00:56:16.680 I'm not saying you're wrong.

00:56:18.720 Do you get that?

00:56:19.560 Do you get really clearly

00:56:21.620 that I'm not saying you're wrong?

00:56:23.000 Whatever your interpretation is,

00:56:24.400 you could be totally right.

00:56:25.860 Totally right.

00:56:27.200 It just doesn't fit the facts as well as mine.

00:56:29.880 That's all.

00:56:33.220 All right.

00:56:36.260 Here's an interesting thing.

00:56:38.940 I told you that AI,

00:56:41.280 especially with the help of

00:56:43.000 Machiavelli's underbelly on Twitter,

00:56:47.040 been testing whether AI can write

00:56:48.860 a Dilbert comic strip.

00:56:50.240 And so far, it's shockingly close,

00:56:53.660 but not there.

00:56:55.100 I made the mistake.

00:57:00.020 Somebody's telling me

00:57:01.040 that I have a strong opinion

00:57:02.240 and that therefore I am biased.

00:57:04.700 That is correct.

00:57:06.120 That is correct.

00:57:07.720 That's why I tell you to check my work

00:57:11.400 the same as you should check your own.

00:57:13.600 But here's what you should look for.

00:57:14.900 What would be the source of my bias?

00:57:18.900 If I had had a strong opinion

00:57:20.560 one way or the other

00:57:22.420 before this started,

00:57:23.900 then that would be a good speculation.

00:57:26.700 But I think you could say

00:57:28.940 that my bias from the start

00:57:30.180 is I just didn't understand.

00:57:32.520 Would you agree?

00:57:34.220 Would you agree with my characterization

00:57:35.960 of my own public statements of Soros

00:57:38.460 that from the beginning,

00:57:40.040 I've said I'm just puzzled.

00:57:41.200 I just don't understand.

00:57:42.120 If you approach a topic

00:57:44.140 from I'm confused

00:57:45.220 and then you form a point of view,

00:57:47.860 it's less likely

00:57:49.200 to be confirmation bias.

00:57:51.820 Do you get that?

00:57:53.120 Confirmation bias

00:57:54.000 is when you're just agreeing

00:57:55.760 with what you already said.

00:57:57.060 Oh, all the evidence

00:57:57.960 supports what I already said.

00:57:59.960 That's not what I did.

00:58:01.380 It was literally yesterday

00:58:03.100 when I realized

00:58:04.080 that corruption

00:58:04.760 could explain all the elements.

00:58:06.700 So I didn't have anything

00:58:08.000 like a firm opinion

00:58:09.000 and still don't.

00:58:09.900 That's why I'm so adamant

00:58:11.940 about saying

00:58:12.480 that this is speculation.

00:58:14.320 But so is yours.

00:58:15.920 We're all on the same level

00:58:17.400 of credibility,

00:58:18.260 which is none, basically.

00:58:21.340 So back to humor.

00:58:22.800 So AI did a good job

00:58:24.040 of coming up with things

00:58:25.980 that sounded funny.

00:58:27.540 And I cleverly

00:58:28.740 but incorrectly suggested

00:58:30.060 that if AI were fed

00:58:32.320 the six dimensions of humor,

00:58:34.160 a formula that I came up with

00:58:35.520 years ago

00:58:36.000 for what makes something funny,

00:58:38.300 the formula is that

00:58:39.360 if any two of six dimensions

00:58:41.700 are used in a joke,

00:58:42.980 it could be funny

00:58:44.180 but not necessarily.

00:58:45.580 But it's a minimum requirement.

00:58:47.000 The minimum requirement

00:58:47.960 is two of six dimensions.

00:58:50.180 If you haven't heard it,

00:58:50.940 the six dimensions are

00:58:52.120 is it recognizable,

00:58:55.120 you know,

00:58:55.280 something that happens

00:58:55.860 in your life?

00:58:56.740 Is it naughty,

00:58:57.620 cute, clever, bizarre?

00:59:01.100 And there's another one

00:59:03.320 I forget.

00:59:04.340 But if you use two of six,

00:59:05.840 you get it.

00:59:06.240 So I said,

00:59:07.140 hey,

00:59:07.520 if you were to feed

00:59:08.440 this formula into AI,

00:59:10.000 could then beat me?

00:59:13.020 Because I believed

00:59:13.880 it had not been done.

00:59:15.460 But it turns out

00:59:16.220 that Machiavelli's underbelly

00:59:19.660 had done exactly that

00:59:21.360 and fed my entire explanation

00:59:23.440 of the six dimensions

00:59:24.400 of humor into it.

00:59:26.520 It still did not create

00:59:27.720 a joke

00:59:28.400 that I think was great.

00:59:30.520 It was missing one thing.

00:59:34.260 But this is going to really,

00:59:35.660 this is really going to

00:59:36.540 blow your mind now.

00:59:38.260 There's only one thing

00:59:39.540 that it couldn't do.

00:59:41.380 It knew how to write.

00:59:43.060 It knew what a joke was.

00:59:44.820 It knew the formula

00:59:45.680 for writing a joke.

00:59:47.140 It had the right topic.

00:59:48.700 But it didn't quite hit.

00:59:50.860 There's one thing

00:59:51.680 I say all the time

00:59:52.920 that it needs to have

00:59:54.640 to write jokes

00:59:55.380 that's missing.

00:59:57.360 A-B testing.

00:59:58.360 Do you know how I know

01:00:00.660 if something is funny?

01:00:02.520 I'm A-B testing it

01:00:03.700 in my own brain.

01:00:04.660 Because there's still

01:00:05.460 one thing I can do

01:00:06.360 that AI can't do.

01:00:08.220 Well, that's a lie.

01:00:10.060 It's one thing

01:00:10.580 that AI hasn't done yet

01:00:12.000 but could really easily do.

01:00:15.120 That's the problem.

01:00:16.560 The problem is

01:00:17.380 it can't A-B test

01:00:19.820 on its own

01:00:20.700 because it doesn't have

01:00:22.240 a sense of humor.

01:00:23.800 But a human has

01:00:24.820 a sense of humor

01:00:25.540 that's developed

01:00:26.440 in whatever weird way

01:00:27.820 we develop.

01:00:28.980 So when I'm going

01:00:29.940 through all the options

01:00:30.840 I'm saying

01:00:31.300 if he says this

01:00:32.100 isn't funny.

01:00:32.720 If he says this

01:00:33.340 isn't funny.

01:00:34.280 If he says this

01:00:35.000 I actually laugh.

01:00:38.020 I A-B test instantly

01:00:39.560 if it makes me laugh.

01:00:42.100 That's the requirement.

01:00:43.000 It has to make me laugh.

01:00:45.080 The computer

01:00:46.000 doesn't have that.

01:00:47.220 It'll put down

01:00:47.900 its best shot.

01:00:49.560 It'll try one thing

01:00:50.600 its best shot

01:00:51.400 and then it's done.

01:00:53.460 If I did that

01:00:54.440 I couldn't write

01:00:55.120 humor either.

01:00:55.840 If all I did

01:00:57.060 is put down

01:00:58.800 my first draft

01:01:00.400 you would never

01:01:01.800 read my comic.

01:01:03.400 It doesn't do

01:01:04.520 second drafts.

01:01:06.320 It doesn't edit

01:01:07.260 and it doesn't test

01:01:08.860 it with the audience.

01:01:10.420 Now

01:01:10.800 here's what's going

01:01:11.700 to put me

01:01:12.060 out of business.

01:01:13.700 All you need

01:01:14.340 is a Twitter account

01:01:15.360 that the AI

01:01:16.500 has access to

01:01:17.640 that it can tweet.

01:01:19.080 and then you say

01:01:20.820 AI

01:01:21.900 write me a joke

01:01:23.200 about

01:01:23.720 George Soros

01:01:25.580 or critical race theory

01:01:26.860 and then the AI

01:01:28.480 gives a first draft.

01:01:30.920 Here's my first draft

01:01:31.840 and then

01:01:32.860 it tweets it

01:01:34.400 and says

01:01:35.160 what do you think

01:01:35.680 about this?

01:01:37.340 And then humans

01:01:38.120 somewhat instantly

01:01:39.320 because jokes

01:01:40.020 are easy to read

01:01:41.860 might be three sentences

01:01:43.080 within five minutes

01:01:46.160 the AI

01:01:47.400 has hundreds

01:01:48.280 of responses.

01:01:49.920 It only needs

01:01:50.680 ten.

01:01:51.900 Ten responses

01:01:52.900 would be

01:01:53.380 perfectly adequate

01:01:54.400 to say if something

01:01:55.180 is funny or not

01:01:56.000 because people

01:01:56.760 are similar enough

01:01:57.960 that if three

01:01:59.500 out of ten

01:01:59.980 thought it was

01:02:00.500 hilarious

01:02:00.840 that would be

01:02:01.720 a hit.

01:02:02.920 Right?

01:02:03.680 You know

01:02:03.920 you can't get

01:02:04.640 ten out of ten

01:02:05.280 but if you got

01:02:06.060 three out of ten

01:02:06.740 people say

01:02:07.240 that is just

01:02:07.900 really funny.

01:02:09.220 You would have

01:02:09.580 a best selling book

01:02:11.640 number one comic

01:02:12.960 three out of ten

01:02:13.600 is huge

01:02:14.180 for humor.

01:02:15.960 So the only

01:02:16.560 thing AI

01:02:17.680 doesn't do

01:02:18.540 to write jokes

01:02:19.760 it could do

01:02:21.680 tomorrow.

01:02:23.180 It just had to

01:02:24.100 know what I

01:02:24.680 just told you.

01:02:26.040 All it needs

01:02:26.740 to do is

01:02:27.460 add the one

01:02:28.040 thing that I

01:02:28.620 have that it

01:02:29.280 doesn't have

01:02:29.940 and it could

01:02:30.900 do it better

01:02:31.580 than I could

01:02:32.180 do it.

01:02:32.940 Because if I

01:02:33.820 could test

01:02:34.300 all of my

01:02:34.780 jokes instantly

01:02:35.640 on Twitter

01:02:36.920 with other

01:02:37.560 people I

01:02:38.600 wouldn't use 0.89

01:02:39.160 my own brain

01:02:39.780 to do it.

01:02:40.700 Because the

01:02:41.100 limitation of

01:02:41.780 my own brain

01:02:42.480 is that I'm

01:02:43.300 only getting

01:02:43.700 the things

01:02:44.100 I think

01:02:44.480 are funny.

01:02:45.660 And cartoonists

01:02:46.320 become a little

01:02:46.860 weird over time.

01:02:48.480 We need edgier 0.98

01:02:49.540 stuff to laugh

01:02:50.420 because we deal

01:02:51.320 with humor

01:02:51.680 all the time.

01:02:52.700 So you just

01:02:53.180 need more.

01:02:54.480 And so

01:02:54.860 sometimes there

01:02:55.740 are things

01:02:55.980 I don't think

01:02:56.700 are funny

01:02:57.120 that the

01:02:57.880 audience would.

01:03:00.200 And actually

01:03:00.980 some of the

01:03:01.480 most popular

01:03:02.180 Dilbert comics

01:03:03.040 of all time

01:03:03.680 I thought

01:03:05.100 were some

01:03:05.560 of my

01:03:05.880 weaker efforts.

01:03:07.500 But the

01:03:07.920 public thought

01:03:08.400 it was my

01:03:08.760 best work.

01:03:09.960 So I can't

01:03:10.780 tell.

01:03:11.640 But AI

01:03:12.060 could tell.

01:03:12.600 AI would

01:03:13.680 know what

01:03:14.060 the best

01:03:14.400 one is

01:03:14.880 because it

01:03:15.240 would have

01:03:15.540 data.

01:03:16.260 It tested

01:03:16.760 it.

01:03:17.800 So you

01:03:18.320 add the

01:03:19.460 first draft

01:03:20.260 A-B

01:03:21.460 testing,

01:03:22.120 second draft

01:03:22.720 A-B

01:03:23.080 testing.

01:03:23.800 You add

01:03:24.500 that to

01:03:25.460 the humor

01:03:26.180 formula

01:03:26.720 and AI

01:03:28.420 already can

01:03:29.500 do my

01:03:30.040 job.

01:03:31.240 Did you

01:03:31.580 see the

01:03:31.880 pictures the

01:03:32.480 AI drew

01:03:33.280 of my

01:03:33.720 comic strip?

01:03:35.220 And you

01:03:35.500 noticed that

01:03:36.000 the heads

01:03:36.760 of the

01:03:37.000 characters were

01:03:37.580 like misshapen?

01:03:38.460 how hard

01:03:40.060 would it

01:03:40.340 be to

01:03:40.880 teach the

01:03:41.460 AI,

01:03:42.020 hey,

01:03:42.860 we see

01:03:43.620 your first

01:03:44.020 draft of

01:03:44.480 these comics

01:03:45.000 but we

01:03:45.800 should remind

01:03:46.340 you that

01:03:47.460 on humans

01:03:48.040 as well as

01:03:48.640 comics,

01:03:49.720 the ears

01:03:50.320 on both

01:03:50.780 sides are

01:03:51.380 symmetrical.

01:03:53.060 The eyes

01:03:53.760 are symmetrical.

01:03:55.620 So you

01:03:55.900 want symmetry,

01:03:56.880 whatever's on

01:03:57.680 the left

01:03:58.060 should look

01:03:58.540 like the

01:03:58.920 right.

01:04:00.000 Believe it

01:04:00.520 or not,

01:04:00.940 AI doesn't

01:04:01.600 seem to

01:04:01.980 know that

01:04:02.400 yet in

01:04:03.020 the context

01:04:03.580 of creating

01:04:04.240 Dilbert comics.

01:04:05.420 But how

01:04:06.420 hard would

01:04:06.860 it be for

01:04:07.260 AI to

01:04:07.760 learn that

01:04:08.960 the ear

01:04:09.280 on the

01:04:09.560 left needs

01:04:10.140 to look

01:04:10.420 like the

01:04:10.720 ear on

01:04:10.980 the right

01:04:11.320 or is

01:04:11.620 not right?

01:04:13.300 Pretty

01:04:13.740 easy.

01:04:15.780 Pretty

01:04:16.220 easy.

01:04:17.940 All right.

01:04:18.980 That should

01:04:19.560 scare you. 0.93

01:04:20.780 You know,

01:04:21.120 a lot of

01:04:21.380 us thought

01:04:21.720 that art

01:04:22.140 would be

01:04:22.440 last,

01:04:23.780 that art

01:04:24.220 would be

01:04:24.500 the last

01:04:24.960 thing that

01:04:25.500 the AI

01:04:26.500 could do.

01:04:27.600 And for

01:04:28.420 probably 20

01:04:29.740 years I've

01:04:30.320 been saying,

01:04:31.260 you are so

01:04:31.920 wrong.

01:04:33.140 Art is

01:04:33.640 going to be

01:04:33.920 the first

01:04:34.340 thing.

01:04:35.420 Art isn't

01:04:35.900 going to

01:04:36.080 be the

01:04:36.280 last

01:04:36.540 thing.

01:04:37.080 It's

01:04:37.420 going to

01:04:37.620 be the

01:04:37.860 first

01:04:38.120 thing.

01:04:38.860 And the

01:04:39.160 reason I

01:04:39.580 can say

01:04:40.000 that is

01:04:42.420 because of

01:04:42.840 my talent

01:04:43.300 stack.

01:04:44.580 I do

01:04:45.240 creative

01:04:45.900 stuff for

01:04:46.360 a living

01:04:46.640 in a lot

01:04:47.560 of different

01:04:47.900 realms.

01:04:48.520 You know,

01:04:48.700 visual art

01:04:49.400 and writing

01:04:49.960 and etc.

01:04:51.060 Tweeting,

01:04:51.940 speaking.

01:04:53.100 So I

01:04:53.620 have the

01:04:54.020 creative

01:04:54.860 experience

01:04:55.640 down,

01:04:56.540 but my

01:04:57.360 background is

01:04:58.100 more economics

01:04:59.060 and rational

01:04:59.880 business and

01:05:00.960 even engineering

01:05:02.220 type of

01:05:02.700 thinking.

01:05:03.760 So I

01:05:04.440 bring sort

01:05:04.820 of an

01:05:05.040 engineering

01:05:05.480 approach

01:05:05.940 into the

01:05:06.380 creative

01:05:06.660 world.

01:05:07.540 And what

01:05:07.820 I can

01:05:08.160 see,

01:05:09.100 what I

01:05:10.020 can see

01:05:10.400 is my

01:05:10.880 own

01:05:11.040 method.

01:05:12.360 I can

01:05:13.000 see my

01:05:13.360 own

01:05:13.540 system.

01:05:14.620 I'm not

01:05:15.080 sure other

01:05:15.680 artists see

01:05:16.820 it as

01:05:17.080 clearly if

01:05:17.820 they don't

01:05:18.080 have sort

01:05:18.660 of an

01:05:18.980 engineering

01:05:19.460 mindset going

01:05:20.600 into it.

01:05:22.020 And so

01:05:22.380 what I can

01:05:22.880 see is that

01:05:23.460 all art

01:05:24.160 is just

01:05:25.540 a formula.

01:05:29.300 Art is

01:05:29.880 just a

01:05:30.240 formula.

01:05:30.540 formula.

01:05:31.420 And then

01:05:31.760 you add

01:05:32.040 the first

01:05:32.480 draft and

01:05:33.020 the A-B 0.92

01:05:33.360 testing part

01:05:34.000 of it and

01:05:34.300 you're done.

01:05:36.080 I knew that

01:05:36.900 from the

01:05:37.220 jump.

01:05:38.720 I knew the

01:05:39.340 art would be

01:05:39.800 first.

01:05:40.420 And in my

01:05:40.920 opinion,

01:05:41.460 the art that

01:05:42.020 the AI is

01:05:42.980 doing right

01:05:43.480 now is

01:05:43.880 better than

01:05:44.260 human art.

01:05:45.960 So let me

01:05:46.380 call it.

01:05:47.760 And by the

01:05:48.140 way, it

01:05:49.580 doesn't matter

01:05:50.080 what you

01:05:50.420 say, it

01:05:50.980 matters what

01:05:51.380 artists say.

01:05:52.720 This is one

01:05:53.420 of those

01:05:53.680 situations where

01:05:54.480 it takes an

01:05:55.520 artist to

01:05:56.860 tell you when

01:05:57.420 the AI is

01:05:58.020 better.

01:05:58.280 And I'm

01:05:59.420 telling you

01:05:59.760 that right

01:06:00.120 now.

01:06:00.800 I've seen a

01:06:01.520 lot of AI

01:06:02.040 art in the

01:06:02.740 last month.

01:06:03.280 It's better.

01:06:04.540 If you told

01:06:05.300 me, what do

01:06:05.820 you want to

01:06:06.100 put on your

01:06:06.500 wall, I

01:06:07.580 would put the

01:06:08.000 AI art on

01:06:08.820 my wall right

01:06:09.400 now.

01:06:09.720 It's not even

01:06:10.140 close.

01:06:11.120 In my opinion,

01:06:12.000 the AI art has

01:06:13.200 already lapped

01:06:14.000 human art and

01:06:15.120 it will never

01:06:15.540 return.

01:06:16.520 It's over.

01:06:18.020 People might

01:06:18.700 buy human art

01:06:19.480 because it

01:06:19.800 came from

01:06:20.140 humans and

01:06:20.880 they're always

01:06:21.980 going to see

01:06:22.320 things they

01:06:22.760 like.

01:06:24.020 But the AI

01:06:24.860 art is just

01:06:26.140 better.

01:06:26.840 It's just

01:06:27.180 better.

01:06:28.280 Calling it

01:06:31.040 better is 0.60

01:06:31.520 silly? 0.89

01:06:31.860 No, it's 0.97

01:06:32.160 not.

01:06:33.220 Better in

01:06:34.320 this context

01:06:34.980 means that it

01:06:35.740 lights up the

01:06:37.160 parts of the

01:06:37.940 brain that art

01:06:38.600 is supposed to

01:06:39.200 light up and

01:06:40.440 it does it

01:06:41.480 more thoroughly

01:06:42.980 than other

01:06:43.940 art.

01:06:44.580 That's pretty

01:06:45.300 objective.

01:06:46.580 I know art is

01:06:47.940 you know it

01:06:48.780 when you see

01:06:49.260 it, blah, blah,

01:06:49.720 blah, but

01:06:50.020 that's just

01:06:50.400 not true.

01:06:52.260 It's just

01:06:52.640 not true.

01:06:54.320 What's true

01:06:54.920 is art that's

01:06:56.820 done well.

01:06:58.280 is very

01:06:59.480 objectively

01:07:00.140 done well

01:07:01.660 and you

01:07:02.320 could find

01:07:02.740 the formula

01:07:03.220 to it.

01:07:04.320 How many

01:07:04.980 of you know

01:07:05.400 that if you

01:07:06.080 were to do

01:07:06.460 a portrait

01:07:06.920 there's a

01:07:08.900 design element

01:07:11.820 or several

01:07:12.800 that you

01:07:13.560 pretty much

01:07:14.120 have to use?

01:07:14.960 If you go

01:07:15.400 outside those

01:07:16.900 design expectations

01:07:18.200 you don't have

01:07:20.260 art.

01:07:21.220 So art has

01:07:21.940 always been

01:07:22.420 formula.

01:07:23.400 It's just that

01:07:24.080 the artist

01:07:24.480 didn't necessarily

01:07:25.200 know they were

01:07:25.700 following one

01:07:26.360 and you

01:07:27.560 thought it

01:07:27.980 was maybe

01:07:28.720 magic and

01:07:29.600 art because

01:07:30.520 you didn't

01:07:30.900 know the

01:07:31.180 formula either.

01:07:32.500 But if you

01:07:33.200 do create

01:07:33.880 art and

01:07:35.740 you have

01:07:36.060 some background

01:07:36.660 and rational

01:07:38.200 thinking you

01:07:39.500 can see

01:07:39.920 instantly that

01:07:40.620 it's just

01:07:40.960 craft.

01:07:42.380 Art is

01:07:42.720 mostly craft

01:07:43.680 plus luck.

01:07:45.080 There's some

01:07:45.500 people who

01:07:45.860 make things

01:07:46.320 and it's just

01:07:46.780 magic on the

01:07:47.620 first draft

01:07:48.280 and that's

01:07:50.000 just luck.

01:07:50.460 If you

01:07:52.020 tried to

01:07:52.400 make artistic

01:07:53.100 things all

01:07:53.680 day long

01:07:54.160 and you

01:07:54.380 had some

01:07:54.700 skill at it

01:07:55.300 you're going

01:07:55.980 to nail it

01:07:56.420 once in a

01:07:56.800 while.

01:07:57.900 It's just

01:07:58.320 luck.

01:08:02.340 You're not

01:08:02.940 talking about

01:08:03.380 the same

01:08:03.760 art that

01:08:04.100 you're talking

01:08:04.520 about?

01:08:05.180 I think I

01:08:06.080 am but

01:08:06.880 I don't

01:08:07.360 know.

01:08:10.220 There's a

01:08:10.860 priceless

01:08:11.340 plexiglass

01:08:12.280 box called

01:08:13.140 art.

01:08:13.720 Well I

01:08:14.160 think that's

01:08:14.520 more about

01:08:14.880 marketing than

01:08:16.260 anything else.

01:08:18.020 Is luck

01:08:18.480 really genius?

01:08:20.460 Well let me

01:08:21.240 give you one

01:08:21.700 of the

01:08:21.940 reframes that's

01:08:23.120 in my

01:08:24.180 how to

01:08:25.320 fail book.

01:08:28.780 Well that's

01:08:29.360 weird.

01:08:31.900 About luck.

01:08:33.960 The old

01:08:34.720 frame is that

01:08:35.300 you can't

01:08:35.680 control luck.

01:08:37.360 The reframe

01:08:38.340 the one that I

01:08:39.060 offer is that

01:08:39.800 you can totally

01:08:40.380 control luck.

01:08:41.700 You just have

01:08:42.240 to go where

01:08:42.620 luck exists.

01:08:44.140 So go where

01:08:44.620 there's more

01:08:44.980 energy, more

01:08:45.600 things happening,

01:08:46.280 more connections,

01:08:47.020 more networking,

01:08:47.740 more jobs,

01:08:48.720 faster growing

01:08:49.420 industry,

01:08:49.940 a growing

01:08:50.800 industry,

01:08:51.340 not a shrinking

01:08:51.800 industry.

01:08:52.660 You just go

01:08:53.200 where the

01:08:53.420 action is.

01:08:54.420 And then

01:08:54.760 put yourself

01:08:56.180 into it and

01:08:56.760 you're going

01:08:57.000 to have all

01:08:57.420 kinds of

01:08:57.800 opportunities.

01:08:58.900 But if you

01:08:59.300 sit on your

01:08:59.800 couch at

01:09:00.160 home,

01:09:01.940 luck isn't

01:09:02.820 going to

01:09:03.020 find you

01:09:03.360 at home.

01:09:04.840 So you

01:09:06.640 would say

01:09:06.920 that's not

01:09:07.360 luck.

01:09:07.660 No it is

01:09:08.000 luck.

01:09:08.580 Because you

01:09:09.160 still need

01:09:09.680 the accidental

01:09:10.500 opportunity.

01:09:12.780 You still

01:09:13.160 need to

01:09:13.500 notice when

01:09:14.100 somebody said

01:09:14.620 something.

01:09:18.120 Somebody

01:09:18.560 named their

01:09:19.080 couch lucky.

01:09:19.940 Yeah, okay.

01:09:21.260 That's one

01:09:21.580 way to

01:09:21.840 play it.

01:09:25.520 Jeff says,

01:09:26.440 you do

01:09:26.620 realize the

01:09:27.080 engineer-artist

01:09:27.820 thing works

01:09:28.220 both ways.

01:09:28.940 Excellent point.

01:09:30.500 The engineer-science

01:09:31.740 thing works

01:09:32.380 both ways too.

01:09:33.920 Yeah, there is

01:09:34.800 a hypothesis

01:09:35.920 that I found

01:09:37.180 stronger than I

01:09:38.040 thought it

01:09:38.280 would be.

01:09:39.540 That artists

01:09:40.320 anticipate science

01:09:41.720 and therefore

01:09:42.580 engineering.

01:09:44.320 Right?

01:09:45.040 Do you believe

01:09:45.520 that?

01:09:46.040 Do you believe

01:09:46.560 that art

01:09:47.140 anticipates

01:09:48.820 science?

01:09:50.240 I'm going

01:09:50.780 to go

01:09:51.000 further.

01:09:52.340 You can't

01:09:52.840 make anything

01:09:53.400 you can't

01:09:53.880 imagine.

01:09:56.580 There's your

01:09:57.180 reframe.

01:09:58.160 You can't

01:09:58.960 do anything

01:09:59.460 you can't

01:09:59.920 imagine.

01:10:01.720 I've often

01:10:02.460 been asked

01:10:03.160 have I ever

01:10:05.060 been tempted

01:10:05.540 to do this

01:10:06.220 or that

01:10:06.640 illegal thing

01:10:07.760 to which I

01:10:09.140 say, well,

01:10:09.700 I can't

01:10:10.120 imagine it

01:10:11.000 working out

01:10:11.480 for me.

01:10:12.680 So no,

01:10:13.540 there's nothing

01:10:14.280 that would

01:10:14.540 cause me to

01:10:15.060 do something

01:10:15.700 where I can't

01:10:16.640 even imagine

01:10:17.280 it could work

01:10:17.820 out.

01:10:18.640 At the very

01:10:19.220 least, you

01:10:19.760 have to imagine

01:10:20.420 it before it

01:10:21.020 activates you.

01:10:21.780 You don't

01:10:22.200 even stand

01:10:22.780 up.

01:10:24.060 You don't

01:10:24.380 even get

01:10:24.720 off the

01:10:25.060 couch unless

01:10:26.460 you can

01:10:26.800 imagine that

01:10:27.480 that pays

01:10:28.580 off.

01:10:29.820 If you can't

01:10:30.480 even imagine

01:10:31.000 it's good to

01:10:31.500 get off the

01:10:31.860 couch, you're

01:10:32.220 not going

01:10:32.440 to do it.

01:10:33.700 So your

01:10:34.140 imagination is

01:10:35.200 the only thing

01:10:35.660 that activates

01:10:36.200 you plus

01:10:37.000 dopamine.

01:10:40.300 It's basically

01:10:41.100 imagination

01:10:42.240 plus dopamine

01:10:43.880 plus a

01:10:45.360 functioning body,

01:10:46.300 you know,

01:10:46.460 health.

01:10:47.620 That's it.

01:10:50.720 Imagination

01:10:51.200 plus preference,

01:10:52.440 I guess.

01:10:53.200 Imagination

01:10:53.640 plus preferences,

01:10:54.960 you know,

01:10:55.100 personal preferences,

01:10:56.400 plus dopamine.

01:10:58.040 There you go.

01:11:02.400 All right.

01:11:03.260 Well,

01:11:03.680 some of you

01:11:04.180 need to go

01:11:04.660 start your day

01:11:05.320 and that means

01:11:06.720 it must be

01:11:07.240 close to 8 o'clock.

01:11:09.280 My time,

01:11:10.160 not your time.

01:11:11.100 And may

01:11:13.160 I say

01:11:13.680 that I had

01:11:15.700 the most

01:11:16.180 excellent

01:11:17.360 writing trip.

01:11:19.420 I felt

01:11:20.040 I was

01:11:20.580 totally,

01:11:22.280 totally

01:11:22.660 inspired.

01:11:25.640 Apparently,

01:11:26.360 my muse

01:11:26.900 did a good

01:11:27.360 job.

01:11:28.560 And

01:11:29.000 I'll see you

01:11:31.260 tomorrow

01:11:31.600 on YouTube.

01:11:33.380 Bye for now.

01:11:34.280 Bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 03, 2022

Episode 1824 Scott Adams： Trump Remains The Most Relevant Political Figure, J6 Hearings Backfired

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