Real Coffee with Scott Adams - September 06, 2022


Episode 1858 Scott Adams： How Can Republicans Beat Biden's Fear Persuasion？ I'll Tell You


Episode Stats

Length

1 hour and 1 minute

Words per Minute

140.52957

Word Count

8,582

Sentence Count

597

Misogynist Sentences

2

Hate Speech Sentences

24


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of civilization.
00:00:24.640 I made it just in time.
00:00:26.720 Yes, I was carried away with looking at stuff on Twitter.
00:00:34.940 Does it sound like a new song?
00:00:37.680 And yes, my IQ is still 185, according to the Internet.
00:00:43.900 We can get different opinions from different sources, but finally, finally, we're here.
00:00:52.620 Ladies and gentlemen, would you like to take it up a full notch?
00:00:56.900 Yes, you would.
00:00:57.900 And all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass of thank you, a chalice or a stein, a canteen
00:01:01.220 jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.
00:01:04.700 Fill it with your favorite liquid.
00:01:07.820 I like coffee.
00:01:09.320 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day.
00:01:13.240 The thing makes everything better.
00:01:14.840 Remember, it's called the simultaneous sip, and it's the best thing that ever happened
00:01:21.060 to you.
00:01:21.460 It's happening now.
00:01:22.340 Go.
00:01:31.660 Good stuff.
00:01:34.720 So, here's my question.
00:01:38.400 Is it too soon for Republicans to start asking for reparations?
00:01:46.400 Because I feel like there's an argument to be made.
00:01:50.560 Am I wrong?
00:01:52.940 Are not Republicans being discriminated against and demonized by their president?
00:01:58.720 Are they not being jailed, in some cases, for political purposes and hunted?
00:02:07.600 Makes you wonder, what is the standard?
00:02:10.560 Now, what is the worst thing that's ever happened to the United States?
00:02:14.820 Not the worst thing.
00:02:16.080 But what is the least worst thing that actually got reparations?
00:02:20.720 If we say, yeah, so the Japanese internment camps, one of the most horrible things the country
00:02:32.860 has ever done, reparations.
00:02:37.480 Now, I don't know that anything that bad has happened to Republicans, except the ones in
00:02:41.500 jail, I suppose.
00:02:43.580 But where is that line where you can say, you know, you've crossed that line.
00:02:48.400 Now we've got to talk about reparations.
00:02:50.720 Let's talk about reparations a little bit.
00:02:54.040 Because it seems to me that what I witnessed for the last two years, maybe the last year,
00:03:01.300 is Republicans had everything running fine.
00:03:04.880 Seems like the country was sort of in a pretty good situation.
00:03:09.240 And then Democrats ripped that all away.
00:03:13.460 With energy policy and, you know, Ukraine, whatever they're doing there.
00:03:18.600 It feels as if, you know, the Republicans had things working pretty well, and it was just
00:03:24.660 ripped away.
00:03:28.060 Now, I'm not serious.
00:03:29.220 I don't think you can get reparations.
00:03:30.560 But I was, I think I was, I went down this path because I saw a fascinating little clip
00:03:40.000 from Jack Murphy, who's a good follow.
00:03:44.060 If you don't follow Jack Murphy, you should.
00:03:47.740 But there's a clip of him.
00:03:49.100 He tweeted around, I guess, I don't know when he was talking about it.
00:03:51.900 It was in the past, I guess.
00:03:53.060 But he talked about a way to understand what happened in 2020.
00:04:00.760 And I love his frame.
00:04:05.260 And the frame is this.
00:04:06.980 So the normal frame is that there was something called an election.
00:04:11.760 And then the two teams, they both said what they could do.
00:04:15.840 Here's what I could do if you elect me.
00:04:18.020 Here's what I could do if you elect me.
00:04:19.720 And then the voters looked at those two competing propositions, and according to the official
00:04:27.360 count, Biden won, according to, you know, according to the official outcome.
00:04:35.260 Now, here's Jack's take on the same situation.
00:04:40.660 The Democrats' strategy is to make their own people so uncomfortable that they'll do anything
00:04:47.980 you tell them to make the pain stop.
00:04:55.040 And the pain, the pain was a continuous fear that Trump was going to destroy the world.
00:05:03.840 And I don't think you and I, you know, if you were not subject to that persuasion, I
00:05:08.800 don't think you and I can appreciate how bad that must have been.
00:05:12.500 Imagine waking up every day thinking the world is going to burn because Trump's the president.
00:05:17.220 And, you know, they always say that winning elections is about what you're voting against.
00:05:26.480 That's one of the wise things you hear.
00:05:28.780 But also about energizing your base.
00:05:31.460 So, Biden managed to energize his base and give them something to vote against by making
00:05:42.100 them so unhappy with their own lives that they would do anything to make the pain stop.
00:05:48.020 Now, once you hear that explanation of what we saw, it's hard to lose it, isn't it?
00:05:59.400 It's just a better framework for understanding what you just saw.
00:06:03.100 It's the team that can torture their own people the hardest.
00:06:07.820 That's what it is.
00:06:08.880 If you put that together, that it's always voting against something, and usually there's
00:06:14.660 a fear involved, right?
00:06:16.980 It's not so much people are not voting for good times.
00:06:20.180 They're voting to make their fear go away.
00:06:24.000 And so that's our system.
00:06:26.960 Our system is two leaders who will torture their own supporters to see who can torture them
00:06:33.340 the most, because who can ever scare them the most and make their own people the most uncomfortable?
00:06:40.160 They'll vote the most.
00:06:41.940 They can get them off the couch.
00:06:43.960 So we've literally developed a system to see who can torture their own supporters the most,
00:06:49.300 and whoever is willing to do it, they get to win.
00:06:52.520 They get to be president.
00:06:54.740 Now, you tell me that's wrong.
00:06:56.780 Am I wrong?
00:06:59.780 What part of that is not 100% accurate?
00:07:03.160 None of it.
00:07:04.320 That is an exact, perfect description of our system.
00:07:08.760 Whoever can torture their own followers the hardest, they win the election.
00:07:15.420 Because remember, you're not really convincing the other team.
00:07:18.420 They're not even listening to you.
00:07:19.940 You're just trying to get your own people to get off the couch and do something.
00:07:23.060 That's it.
00:07:23.500 That's the whole game.
00:07:24.160 Now, I was asked on Twitter this morning, what could Republicans do to beat Biden's fear of persuasion?
00:07:35.800 Because he's going for, instead of saying, here are all the good things I'll do for you,
00:07:40.460 Biden is saying, watch out for those ultra-mega extremists.
00:07:44.540 And Trump is who you should worry about, and anybody who followed it is Trump.
00:07:50.000 That's fear of persuasion, right?
00:07:52.120 They're all the neo-Nazis.
00:07:53.640 They're coming for you.
00:07:54.360 The fascists.
00:07:56.040 So, how do you beat fear of persuasion?
00:07:59.260 Anybody?
00:08:00.500 Anybody?
00:08:01.600 What is the only technique that can beat fear of persuasion?
00:08:05.400 Not the high ground.
00:08:09.840 High ground will not help you one bit against fear of persuasion.
00:08:14.920 Because nobody can hear the high ground.
00:08:17.360 The high ground is just noise if you're afraid.
00:08:19.840 If you're afraid, you have to solve your fear.
00:08:22.940 You solve your fear first, and then you can hear the high ground argument.
00:08:26.980 Right?
00:08:27.480 Now, I often incorrectly say the high ground wins every argument.
00:08:31.480 But that's every argument where there's no fear.
00:08:35.400 Because that's the normal situation.
00:08:37.320 The normal situation is you're just in some corporate meeting,
00:08:40.580 and you're talking about two options, neither of them are scary.
00:08:44.300 In that case, the high ground wins every time.
00:08:48.660 But in the situations, and it's usually political,
00:08:51.740 where you have an actual fear of life and death,
00:08:55.440 nothing beats that.
00:08:57.440 So right now, Biden has a path to re-election,
00:09:02.140 and nothing to stop him.
00:09:03.880 Because he has the superior persuasion.
00:09:07.100 By far.
00:09:08.440 By far.
00:09:09.980 Like, the stuff he's doing is completely unethical.
00:09:13.740 Completely unethical.
00:09:15.140 A lot of it is just based on pure lies.
00:09:18.080 But is it working?
00:09:19.340 Yeah.
00:09:20.360 Yeah, fear works.
00:09:22.400 Fear is the, you know, it's the apex predator.
00:09:26.700 Nothing beats fear.
00:09:27.560 Fear, the only thing that keeps people from using fear all the time
00:09:31.940 is that you don't want to be a giant dick.
00:09:35.660 Because when you scare people, they don't like it.
00:09:38.460 It's very unpleasant to be afraid.
00:09:40.900 So you have to be the bigger dick to win in a game of fear.
00:09:45.700 So the person who can push the hardest and bend the boundaries the most,
00:09:54.620 the one who is most, let's say, skilled at hyperbole,
00:09:58.840 is going to be the one who can win.
00:10:02.000 Now name one Republican who is not named Trump,
00:10:06.260 who could beat Biden for fear persuasion.
00:10:09.400 Because you've seen his game, so you know what Biden can do.
00:10:11.840 And you know what he's focusing on, the mega extremists, as he says.
00:10:17.940 DeSantis, not even close.
00:10:20.800 DeSantis is too much of a technocrat.
00:10:25.180 And I mean that as a compliment.
00:10:28.000 I mean, if you were going to choose somebody to run your government,
00:10:33.520 DeSantis is a pretty good choice,
00:10:35.780 if that's the type of leadership you want.
00:10:39.360 But he doesn't scare me.
00:10:41.840 When was the last time DeSantis scared you?
00:10:45.660 You know, he says there are these problems,
00:10:48.000 we have these solutions,
00:10:49.380 and it all makes sense, and he's popular,
00:10:51.300 and he's funny, and he's interesting.
00:10:52.920 But he's not going to scare you.
00:10:55.940 I can't think of anything he ever said that scared me.
00:11:00.600 There's only one candidate that can scare you.
00:11:04.100 There's only one.
00:11:05.840 And his name is Trump.
00:11:06.900 So here's what we're down to.
00:11:12.260 As much as I love, you know, Tom Cotton, for example, as an alternative,
00:11:18.260 as much as I like his skills,
00:11:20.420 he's not going to scare you like Trump will.
00:11:23.620 He doesn't have that...
00:11:25.060 Well, I just don't think he would bend the rules enough to get that done.
00:11:32.940 So there's only one way you're going to beat Biden at this point,
00:11:37.520 because he's taking a pure...
00:11:40.520 I hate to say it, but he's taking a Trumpian approach,
00:11:46.040 which is take the best persuasion you can take
00:11:49.760 and just ride it hard.
00:11:51.880 That's what Trump did.
00:11:53.480 He just picked the scariest stuff,
00:11:55.040 and he rode it hard, and it worked.
00:11:57.100 So Biden's doing the same thing.
00:11:59.180 And he's got that extra benefit of the media will back him
00:12:02.940 and say that MAGA people are extremists and stuff like that.
00:12:07.100 So here's the only thing that will get you a Republican president.
00:12:11.500 Trump as a candidate.
00:12:16.300 Now, I'm not saying, you know,
00:12:17.820 I'm not saying I want him or don't want him.
00:12:20.380 I'm not saying he would be the best president or not the best.
00:12:23.800 You know, there's a lot to be said for a DeSantis, a Tom Cotton.
00:12:27.680 You know, there are other people you could say,
00:12:28.900 well, they'd be really serious, serious candidates.
00:12:33.320 But he's the only one who will bend the rules enough
00:12:37.260 to scare you enough to get you to vote.
00:12:41.500 Nobody else is going to scare you enough to get you off the couch.
00:12:45.660 He'll scare the fuck out of you if you want him to.
00:12:48.220 He'll give you just what you need to get you off the couch.
00:12:53.220 I don't think anybody else could do it.
00:12:56.520 Now, somebody says wrong.
00:13:00.260 What's the wrong part?
00:13:03.100 What's the wrong part?
00:13:04.180 Yeah, Tucker's pretty scary.
00:13:09.120 Never let a crisis go to waste.
00:13:11.500 So I think Trump has the what will I do about it thing already covered
00:13:16.080 because he's been president.
00:13:18.620 So you pretty much know what he's going to do.
00:13:21.080 Like all the mystery has been removed.
00:13:23.480 So since you know he has a set of solutions,
00:13:25.740 which clearly seemed to be somewhat effective before,
00:13:30.700 you know, he was doing better on a lot of things,
00:13:32.920 all he really needs to do is scare you that Biden is coming for your guns
00:13:39.100 and you're raising your taxes and he's going to destroy the whole country.
00:13:43.220 And I think he can make the case.
00:13:45.340 So that's what I would look for.
00:13:46.860 I would look for a battle of fear for this next election.
00:13:51.300 Do you remember the polls that came out after the 2020 election
00:14:02.580 and Trump was questioning the outcome of the election?
00:14:06.080 But then the polls came out and they asked people,
00:14:10.320 who did you vote for?
00:14:13.060 So that you could match the actual, you know,
00:14:15.440 who did you vote for with the vote totals.
00:14:17.480 And then the polls came up with basically the same answer
00:14:24.140 as the election itself.
00:14:25.920 You remember that?
00:14:28.680 And therefore proved that the election was fair
00:14:31.200 because that's sort of an indirect way to do an audit.
00:14:36.260 That you can poll people and find out who they voted for,
00:14:40.960 check it against the actual result, they match, boom.
00:14:44.840 So you're done, right?
00:14:45.860 Do you remember those polls?
00:14:47.480 You remember them, right?
00:14:50.520 They were all over the news.
00:14:52.840 No, I don't remember them either.
00:14:55.020 I do not remember them.
00:14:57.300 Why?
00:14:58.740 Why is that?
00:15:00.780 Huh.
00:15:01.680 The most important question in the entire country.
00:15:05.860 Huh.
00:15:07.280 And yet, there are all these professional polling companies
00:15:10.140 who are in the business of gathering this exact information.
00:15:14.480 Interesting.
00:15:15.680 It's exactly what they do for a living.
00:15:17.480 And yet, nobody decided to check.
00:15:23.720 Did that happen?
00:15:25.140 Now, do you notice that you were all confused
00:15:27.980 about whether it's happened or not, right?
00:15:30.120 I was kind of gaslighting you a little bit.
00:15:33.360 Were you confused a little bit
00:15:34.720 about whether or not that actually has happened or not?
00:15:37.240 Now, this again is, this gets back to the questions that we're not asking.
00:15:46.100 If I were a news person, every time the question of the election came up, I would say, look,
00:15:54.000 it's hard to know exactly what happened, but these exit polls support the outcome.
00:16:00.020 Or they don't, or they don't, or they don't, I mean, I would imagine if they didn't, we'd know more about it.
00:16:06.900 But I just asked that question, and I might have an answer to, let's see.
00:16:14.720 Let me check, because I might actually have the answer to that question I asked it this morning.
00:16:22.900 Um, so there was a, Rasmussen had a thread explaining this very thing.
00:16:35.220 Um, I don't see, I guess the date on this.
00:16:37.300 Oh, this was in May.
00:16:39.620 So May of this year, the question was asked, and Rasmussen dealt with it.
00:16:44.040 How about a poll of likely voters to learn who they actually voted for?
00:16:47.660 He says, great question, and we did one in August of 2021.
00:16:52.960 And he says, first, give a little background.
00:16:56.420 He goes, according to, uh, is this interesting, by the way?
00:17:02.600 Yeah, if I'm looking down, I can't see the comments.
00:17:06.460 Okay, so this is, Rasmussen actually did a poll.
00:17:10.260 I think that's where we're going on this.
00:17:12.080 I think that's where this is ending up.
00:17:13.480 Um, said, according to official sources, there were 158, blah, blah.
00:17:17.880 So he's saying, uh, assuming these totals were accurate,
00:17:22.080 this gives Biden a 4.5% win over Trump in the popular vote, right?
00:17:28.160 So at the moment, we're not talking about the electoral votes.
00:17:31.680 We're just talking about the popular vote.
00:17:34.080 So if you polled and found that there was a 4.5% difference
00:17:40.080 between Biden and Trump for all of the votes,
00:17:44.040 that would give you some confidence that the individual states
00:17:47.920 were probably, you know, a little bit more likely to be correct,
00:17:51.960 unless they, you know, magically canceled each other out,
00:17:54.540 which would be less likely, right?
00:17:57.180 So if, if Rasmussen polled people and found something like a 4.5% gap,
00:18:02.640 that would tell you that the election was fair,
00:18:04.940 and you'd be, you'd feel pretty comfortable with that, wouldn't you?
00:18:07.280 If Rasmussen polled and found out that the people
00:18:12.900 who said they voted one way or another
00:18:14.600 roughly matched the actual vote,
00:18:18.420 wouldn't you feel better about that?
00:18:20.560 Now, I know the electoral is a different, different concept, of course.
00:18:25.560 Let's see what happened.
00:18:27.400 So in August of 2021, they asked a simple question,
00:18:31.040 who did you, who did you vote for in 2020?
00:18:32.940 And the results of a vote, and the answer was,
00:18:38.060 very close.
00:18:43.320 Basically a tie.
00:18:46.440 Statistical tie.
00:18:48.980 Dead tie.
00:18:49.560 And Rasmussen's commentary at the time was,
00:18:56.740 what to make of it?
00:18:57.880 We're not yet sure.
00:18:59.420 Joe Biden beating Barack Obama's popular vote totals
00:19:02.160 by this amount of strange belief.
00:19:04.580 Hmm.
00:19:05.440 I'm not sure about that.
00:19:07.280 Because the, the argument,
00:19:08.920 that the vote totals are correct,
00:19:13.380 was that the demographics have changed.
00:19:15.420 The, the number of extra votes
00:19:18.280 roughly matches the number of extra adults who voted.
00:19:24.220 I mean, basically it just,
00:19:26.100 it, it mirrored the actual population change in the country.
00:19:31.100 Largely.
00:19:32.620 Now, at least that's the counter argument.
00:19:35.660 Has anybody heard a counter to the counter?
00:19:38.280 Because the argument is too many people voted
00:19:40.860 compared to prior elections.
00:19:43.620 The counter to that is, yes,
00:19:46.400 but that matches the number of extra people
00:19:48.280 who were, you know, in the country,
00:19:51.280 legally, and voted.
00:19:56.120 All right.
00:19:56.780 So as far as I know,
00:19:58.140 the number of people who voted is not the red flag.
00:20:02.480 Well, let me say it differently.
00:20:05.360 It's a flag.
00:20:07.060 It's a flag, meaning you need to understand why.
00:20:10.020 But the explanation for why sounded pretty good to me.
00:20:14.580 There's just more people in the country.
00:20:16.580 Because it's easy to forget that in eight years,
00:20:20.620 you add a lot of people to a country.
00:20:23.180 Like tens of millions of people in eight years.
00:20:25.480 It's a lot of people.
00:20:28.260 So I don't know if that's the full answer, by the way,
00:20:30.320 but that was the answer given.
00:20:37.100 All right.
00:20:40.040 So that's the basic idea.
00:20:42.180 So I don't know what other pollsters
00:20:44.700 may have asked this question.
00:20:46.880 I do know that Erasmussen typically
00:20:50.880 is pretty close in their polling before the election.
00:20:54.500 They're one of the closest ones after the election.
00:20:58.180 When you see how they did,
00:20:59.460 they tend to be one of the best.
00:21:01.480 So I would assume that that level of accuracy
00:21:05.080 can be extrapolated to the after-the-election polling.
00:21:12.040 So that's sort of a big unexplained thing, isn't it?
00:21:17.020 You know, if you were to do this...
00:21:21.660 So here's the other problem with doing the check this way.
00:21:28.360 I wonder how many people forget who they voted for.
00:21:31.920 You ever wonder about that?
00:21:33.720 It's probably a surprisingly big number.
00:21:36.480 How many people do you think remember voting and didn't vote?
00:21:40.860 I'll bet it's more than 1%.
00:21:42.300 I'll bet at least one person out of 100
00:21:45.400 says they voted and didn't vote,
00:21:48.540 but actually might remember that they did
00:21:50.340 because they're thinking of a prior election.
00:21:53.560 Right?
00:21:54.280 Don't you think at least 1% of people
00:21:56.300 have a false memory of voting and didn't vote at all?
00:21:59.840 How many people answer the question
00:22:01.700 and never had any intention of voting,
00:22:04.840 but they like answering questions?
00:22:07.680 So they just won't answer the poll.
00:22:10.260 Yeah, I'm totally a voter.
00:22:12.120 Did you vote in 2020?
00:22:13.380 Oh, yeah, totally.
00:22:14.620 Totally.
00:22:15.400 Who did you vote for?
00:22:16.200 Oh, yeah.
00:22:17.680 So, you know, there's a lot of human psychology
00:22:22.220 that goes into knowing whether to trust these numbers,
00:22:25.160 but it's definitely a flag.
00:22:27.560 It's a gigantic flag that says,
00:22:29.880 maybe we should look into this a little bit.
00:22:33.280 So here's a question that I asked.
00:22:35.100 Would it be legal for citizens
00:22:38.540 to put their own security monitoring video on Dropboxes?
00:22:44.560 Let's say there was a Dropbox in your neighborhood.
00:22:48.440 Could you just put your security camera
00:22:51.180 or your blink camera or whatever the hell,
00:22:53.360 just point it out your window
00:22:54.580 and see if you can catch any mules?
00:22:56.920 I think it's legal because it's a public space, right?
00:23:01.220 And you could probably even find the cameras that you can charge
00:23:06.820 and, you know, it'll last for like, I don't know, weeks or whatever.
00:23:11.540 So you wouldn't, you know, you could actually just put a temporary camera.
00:23:15.140 It just needs Wi-Fi.
00:23:16.220 So if it's near a Starbucks or something,
00:23:19.380 just pick up the Wi-Fi and put it there.
00:23:21.860 Trail cams, exactly, trail cams.
00:23:24.080 That's exactly what I was looking for.
00:23:26.260 They're called trail cams.
00:23:30.640 But that's the specific question,
00:23:34.400 but here's the more general question.
00:23:36.900 Would you say that our government has failed
00:23:39.320 in their job of, let's say,
00:23:42.940 convincing us that the elections are legitimate?
00:23:48.120 I'm not saying the elections are not legitimate.
00:23:50.840 I'm saying that the job of convincing us
00:23:53.200 and giving us confidence,
00:23:54.960 they just haven't done it.
00:23:56.880 And here's the question.
00:23:57.780 How much could we do ourselves?
00:24:00.560 So let's say you didn't trust
00:24:02.840 the Rasmussen polling
00:24:05.940 because it relies on reaching people
00:24:09.300 and asking for, you know, human memory.
00:24:11.840 And so let's say you're uncomfortable
00:24:13.680 with how accurate that could ever be,
00:24:15.820 no matter how well you did it.
00:24:19.280 Let me just suggest something.
00:24:22.020 Suppose you created an organization.
00:24:25.280 Maybe they have to be selected.
00:24:28.800 Maybe they have to be selected randomly, probably.
00:24:33.560 But you had a random,
00:24:35.180 really selected group of people.
00:24:37.460 I'm not sure how you can get the bias out of this,
00:24:39.360 but I think maybe it's possible.
00:24:40.960 If you get the bias out of it,
00:24:42.740 could you create a sample of people
00:24:45.320 who do vote, remember their vote,
00:24:49.080 and they know they're going to be asked later?
00:24:51.960 And if you got the right representative sample,
00:24:54.640 and you did it differently
00:24:55.840 than the polling companies do,
00:24:57.480 because the polling companies
00:24:58.520 have the communication channel problem,
00:25:01.540 which is if they're only calling your wired phone,
00:25:05.940 that's just a certain kind of person.
00:25:07.660 If they only call cell phones,
00:25:09.500 that's a different certain kind of person.
00:25:11.320 If they only call at a certain time of day,
00:25:13.420 that's a different certain kind of person.
00:25:16.260 But if you created,
00:25:17.760 if you could do it,
00:25:19.480 create enough people who volunteered
00:25:21.120 and fit into the model of randomized group,
00:25:25.300 so you'd have to have representatives
00:25:27.740 from most of the major groups.
00:25:30.460 And let's say you had,
00:25:31.920 I don't know how many people would be enough.
00:25:34.620 5,000?
00:25:36.360 1,000 is probably enough,
00:25:38.540 but I feel 5,000 would give me
00:25:40.100 a little more confidence.
00:25:42.800 And let's say you just looked at 5,000
00:25:45.580 in the battleground states,
00:25:46.860 because the other ones don't matter at all.
00:25:48.240 So you made sure your 5,000
00:25:50.600 were only from the disputed states.
00:25:53.160 Or maybe it's 5,000
00:25:54.300 from each disputed battleground state.
00:25:56.920 Whatever the number is to have confidence.
00:25:59.660 And you say,
00:26:00.360 every election,
00:26:02.000 you people are going to vote,
00:26:04.260 and then we'll just ask you after,
00:26:07.100 did you vote,
00:26:08.760 to make sure that you actually showed up.
00:26:11.040 And then we'll compare
00:26:13.460 that random number of people
00:26:15.040 who is actually well-selected,
00:26:16.240 because you could vet 5,000 people
00:26:19.940 way more thoroughly
00:26:22.120 than you could just do a poll every day.
00:26:25.480 Because when you're doing a poll every day,
00:26:27.260 the amount of checking you can do
00:26:29.460 to make sure you've got a good random sample,
00:26:31.880 it's naturally limited.
00:26:34.260 But if you could really dig in
00:26:35.800 and find, let's say, 500 patriots,
00:26:37.780 not 500, 5,000,
00:26:39.660 find 5,000 patriots
00:26:41.540 who don't trust their government
00:26:43.580 and are willing to be a private check
00:26:46.240 on the election,
00:26:49.360 is there any reason in the world
00:26:51.240 that that couldn't be created
00:26:54.580 as just a second way to check the results?
00:26:58.460 Now, the problem is
00:26:59.600 that that organization
00:27:00.820 could be corrupted as well.
00:27:02.280 Or they could do their math wrong
00:27:04.720 and act like there's...
00:27:09.280 No, giving a receipt doesn't help.
00:27:12.180 So here's something
00:27:12.800 that people don't understand
00:27:13.820 about the election.
00:27:15.920 I believe that by law,
00:27:17.660 it has to be anonymous.
00:27:20.040 In other words,
00:27:20.760 when the final vote
00:27:21.700 is in the final database,
00:27:23.580 it can't be paired with a name.
00:27:26.220 So the final vote
00:27:27.720 can never have a name
00:27:29.120 associated with the vote.
00:27:30.380 Do you all know that?
00:27:32.280 Because some of your suggestions
00:27:33.800 act like you don't understand that part.
00:27:37.180 So your name is associated
00:27:38.800 with your vote
00:27:39.580 on the physical ballot.
00:27:42.100 But there's a process
00:27:43.220 by which that gets separated
00:27:44.960 from the vote tallies
00:27:46.300 and it gets sent
00:27:47.880 without your name associated.
00:27:49.960 Right?
00:27:50.660 So I don't believe
00:27:51.800 that a receipt
00:27:52.620 would ever give you anything.
00:27:54.720 The only way
00:27:55.540 it would give you something
00:27:56.640 is if the government
00:27:58.240 allowed you
00:27:59.840 to be their auditor.
00:28:00.880 and said
00:28:02.780 if you sign away
00:28:03.960 your right
00:28:04.460 to an anonymous ballot,
00:28:07.140 you have to sign something
00:28:08.340 that says
00:28:08.580 I give up my right
00:28:09.460 to anonymity,
00:28:10.660 we will track
00:28:11.820 your vote.
00:28:12.800 But then you can game that
00:28:14.180 because then somebody
00:28:15.320 would just make sure
00:28:15.980 the ones that are being tracked
00:28:17.120 match the
00:28:19.260 whatever fraud they did.
00:28:21.240 So that wouldn't help you.
00:28:22.920 At least it wouldn't
00:28:23.760 help you in every situation.
00:28:25.600 There would still be
00:28:26.160 a way around it.
00:28:27.240 But maybe,
00:28:27.720 maybe it would help you
00:28:28.420 a little bit.
00:28:29.280 Here's my point.
00:28:31.480 I believe that
00:28:32.500 your government
00:28:33.120 isn't going to
00:28:33.960 fix elections
00:28:35.220 because they think
00:28:36.940 they benefit
00:28:37.500 by them being crooked.
00:28:39.460 In other words,
00:28:39.960 it's the game
00:28:40.560 they already know
00:28:41.140 how to play.
00:28:42.060 They don't want
00:28:42.540 to change the game
00:28:43.460 to one they don't
00:28:44.220 know how to play.
00:28:45.400 Both sides.
00:28:47.040 Both sides.
00:28:48.260 So the Republicans
00:28:49.060 want to make sure
00:28:49.740 they keep the Republican
00:28:50.800 districts.
00:28:53.000 Democrats want to keep
00:28:53.980 their Democrat districts.
00:28:55.000 they don't really
00:28:56.180 want anything to change.
00:28:58.300 Right?
00:28:59.100 The last thing they want
00:29:00.100 is to lose their district.
00:29:02.260 So we can't really
00:29:04.320 trust the government
00:29:05.100 to do it for us.
00:29:08.140 So the larger question is
00:29:10.000 is there something
00:29:10.600 that citizens can do
00:29:11.920 on their own?
00:29:13.860 Maybe it costs some money
00:29:14.860 but something
00:29:15.420 outside of the government
00:29:16.620 that would act
00:29:17.920 as a type of proxy vote
00:29:21.040 or let's say
00:29:23.140 a poor man's audit.
00:29:25.000 Just to know
00:29:25.800 if you're in the ballpark,
00:29:26.920 right?
00:29:28.040 You know,
00:29:28.660 I'll tell you again,
00:29:29.860 it doesn't bother me
00:29:31.080 too much.
00:29:32.580 If we had an election
00:29:33.800 that was like really
00:29:34.660 razor thin margin
00:29:36.400 and somehow
00:29:37.840 I later found out
00:29:38.960 that, you know,
00:29:39.600 there was some cheating
00:29:40.300 that changed the result
00:29:41.400 but it was like
00:29:42.640 basically an exact tie
00:29:44.940 but, you know,
00:29:46.520 would it go on
00:29:46.940 100 votes the other way?
00:29:49.300 I don't care.
00:29:51.100 In terms of the system,
00:29:52.940 I don't care.
00:29:53.420 I mean,
00:29:53.840 I care about the outcome
00:29:54.740 but I don't care
00:29:55.320 about the system.
00:29:56.120 If the system
00:29:56.820 gives me a dead tie,
00:29:59.180 I feel like
00:30:00.620 the system worked
00:30:01.480 whichever way it went.
00:30:03.820 Like, you know,
00:30:04.340 if somebody cheated
00:30:05.120 by one vote
00:30:05.900 and it fell
00:30:06.400 in the wrong direction,
00:30:08.440 I don't know.
00:30:09.340 Is the country worse off
00:30:10.500 because the majority
00:30:12.260 of one person
00:30:13.340 was ignored?
00:30:14.300 I don't know.
00:30:20.840 Rasmussen,
00:30:21.400 speaking of Rasmussen,
00:30:22.200 also did an updated poll
00:30:23.820 on the laptop from hell
00:30:25.020 and 63% of likely
00:30:26.760 U.S. voters
00:30:27.280 still think that's
00:30:28.640 a big deal,
00:30:29.420 a big story.
00:30:30.980 And a lot of people
00:30:31.940 think that it,
00:30:32.900 a big number of people
00:30:34.120 think it changed
00:30:34.780 the results of the election.
00:30:35.760 So I saw
00:30:40.680 Molly Hemingway
00:30:42.820 say that the FBI
00:30:43.840 had changed
00:30:44.620 the last four
00:30:47.600 presidential elections.
00:30:50.220 Does that sound right?
00:30:52.140 That the last four
00:30:53.440 presidential elections
00:30:54.780 were,
00:30:55.940 you know,
00:30:56.140 the FBI
00:30:57.000 had its finger
00:30:57.700 on the scale.
00:30:58.260 But what's interesting
00:31:00.080 is that,
00:31:01.380 you know,
00:31:01.740 once it was
00:31:02.400 anti-Hillary,
00:31:04.180 when Comey
00:31:04.840 talked about the emails,
00:31:06.940 once it was,
00:31:08.040 you know,
00:31:08.620 anti-Trump.
00:31:11.140 So,
00:31:12.060 what's going on?
00:31:15.440 I'm not even sure
00:31:16.760 they're all
00:31:17.180 on the same side.
00:31:18.360 Do you ever wonder
00:31:19.280 if what Comey did
00:31:20.940 was trying to help
00:31:22.560 Hillary Clinton
00:31:23.360 and it backfired?
00:31:25.600 Have you ever
00:31:26.060 considered that?
00:31:28.260 Because
00:31:28.900 he tried to get
00:31:30.840 the news out
00:31:31.660 even though
00:31:32.320 it was close
00:31:32.840 to the election.
00:31:33.980 It might have been worse
00:31:35.400 if it came out
00:31:36.400 even closer
00:31:37.100 to the election.
00:31:38.480 Because I think
00:31:39.600 he got it out
00:31:41.360 in time
00:31:41.980 to discount it.
00:31:45.620 You know,
00:31:45.840 to have it
00:31:46.700 just no longer
00:31:47.840 be a shocking
00:31:48.520 new thing.
00:31:50.340 I don't know.
00:31:51.100 It's hard to know
00:31:51.660 what he had in mind.
00:31:55.100 Oh,
00:31:55.380 Dan Bongino
00:31:56.020 has said this
00:31:56.500 for years.
00:31:56.980 Yeah.
00:31:59.040 Yeah,
00:31:59.300 I mean,
00:31:59.800 it would make sense.
00:32:00.900 The story
00:32:01.740 would all fit together
00:32:02.720 then.
00:32:03.080 That doesn't mean
00:32:03.540 it's true.
00:32:07.160 You know,
00:32:08.160 at the time,
00:32:10.040 and I think
00:32:10.820 I have to
00:32:11.380 reassess this,
00:32:12.800 at the time
00:32:13.280 I thought that
00:32:13.900 Comey was just
00:32:14.740 doing it
00:32:15.220 because it had
00:32:15.680 to be done.
00:32:16.980 It was something
00:32:17.540 the country
00:32:17.980 needed to know
00:32:18.860 and he thought,
00:32:20.040 you know,
00:32:20.300 Jesus,
00:32:20.780 no,
00:32:21.660 he didn't say that.
00:32:22.620 But he probably
00:32:23.140 thought to himself,
00:32:24.100 I can't let the country
00:32:25.340 find out
00:32:25.820 after the election.
00:32:26.700 that we knew
00:32:28.280 all this.
00:32:30.200 So,
00:32:31.080 you know,
00:32:32.520 he had an argument
00:32:33.280 for why he had
00:32:33.980 to put it out.
00:32:34.840 But if we assume
00:32:35.820 they're all
00:32:36.220 political creatures,
00:32:37.760 then it was nothing
00:32:39.080 about the country
00:32:39.800 and it was everything
00:32:40.600 about Comey's
00:32:42.300 own career,
00:32:42.900 I guess.
00:32:44.900 All right.
00:32:47.700 Biden had a,
00:32:48.760 some kind of a
00:32:50.080 rally or speech
00:32:50.960 speech in which
00:32:51.900 he was screeching
00:32:52.720 in his usual
00:32:53.680 Dementia Joe way
00:32:55.100 that he had
00:32:57.320 beat Pharma
00:32:57.960 and then everybody
00:32:59.580 cheered.
00:33:00.580 We beat Pharma.
00:33:03.380 What?
00:33:05.600 What?
00:33:06.960 No,
00:33:07.540 I guess he means
00:33:08.580 that Medicare
00:33:11.240 can negotiate
00:33:12.040 prices?
00:33:12.520 Is that it?
00:33:14.800 Wait,
00:33:15.060 did it have
00:33:15.480 something to do
00:33:16.040 with the legislation
00:33:16.900 Pharma didn't like?
00:33:19.360 Because I'll give
00:33:21.120 him that.
00:33:22.360 I'll give him that.
00:33:23.560 Because I think
00:33:24.200 he did maybe
00:33:25.940 do something
00:33:26.620 that would be
00:33:27.580 good for prices.
00:33:29.360 Maybe.
00:33:30.700 But if you look
00:33:31.580 at the bigger picture
00:33:32.380 of how many
00:33:33.560 billions they've
00:33:34.460 funneled into Pharma
00:33:35.920 and how much
00:33:36.760 they trusted them,
00:33:38.840 I don't know
00:33:39.460 that they beat
00:33:40.420 Pharma so much
00:33:41.280 as Pharma
00:33:42.420 beat the shit
00:33:43.180 out of us.
00:33:44.780 If you were
00:33:45.640 scoring the fight,
00:33:46.940 Pharma versus
00:33:47.800 the citizens
00:33:48.480 of the United
00:33:49.040 States,
00:33:50.300 who do you
00:33:50.860 think got
00:33:51.380 the biggest
00:33:51.800 victory?
00:33:55.820 I don't know.
00:33:57.460 I think it
00:33:58.220 was a technical
00:33:58.940 knockout.
00:34:00.040 I think Pharma
00:34:01.360 won.
00:34:05.120 CNN continues
00:34:06.140 to make viewers
00:34:06.940 dumber.
00:34:09.020 And it just
00:34:11.740 boggles the mind
00:34:12.920 that CNN
00:34:13.860 viewers don't
00:34:14.880 know you can't
00:34:15.520 prove a negative.
00:34:16.220 or at least
00:34:17.880 they act like
00:34:18.560 they don't
00:34:18.900 know it.
00:34:19.360 It's hard to
00:34:19.800 know what
00:34:20.120 they really
00:34:20.500 believe.
00:34:21.860 But here's
00:34:23.860 something that
00:34:24.420 could be said
00:34:25.180 about the
00:34:25.680 2020 election
00:34:26.640 that I think
00:34:28.380 would be
00:34:28.740 completely accurate
00:34:29.720 and without
00:34:30.260 bias.
00:34:31.000 It goes like
00:34:31.520 this.
00:34:33.640 We have no
00:34:35.460 way to know
00:34:35.980 if the 2020
00:34:36.720 election was
00:34:37.560 fair or not,
00:34:39.060 but no court
00:34:41.260 has found any
00:34:41.960 evidence that
00:34:42.940 would say there
00:34:43.500 was major
00:34:44.260 fraud.
00:34:44.640 fair.
00:34:47.020 There is no
00:34:47.900 way to know
00:34:48.560 that some
00:34:49.920 undiscovered
00:34:50.780 thing didn't
00:34:51.300 happen because
00:34:52.380 it would be by
00:34:53.140 definition undiscovered.
00:34:55.160 How do you
00:34:55.880 know what you
00:34:56.580 don't know?
00:34:57.720 There's no way
00:34:58.300 to know the
00:34:58.740 things you don't
00:34:59.240 know.
00:35:00.320 That's why
00:35:00.860 they're the
00:35:01.680 things you
00:35:02.060 don't know.
00:35:03.500 The only thing
00:35:04.320 you can say
00:35:04.820 is we found
00:35:06.160 no evidence
00:35:06.880 that we could
00:35:08.140 act on.
00:35:09.560 That's fair.
00:35:10.960 But instead,
00:35:12.080 here's how
00:35:12.460 CNN says it.
00:35:14.640 they basically
00:35:18.360 say it's a
00:35:19.080 false claim.
00:35:20.620 That the
00:35:21.240 election was
00:35:21.940 rigged is a
00:35:23.020 false claim.
00:35:25.000 How do they
00:35:25.280 know it's
00:35:25.520 false?
00:35:26.960 They know it
00:35:27.780 can't be
00:35:28.180 proven.
00:35:28.640 They know it
00:35:29.000 wasn't proven.
00:35:29.740 They know there's
00:35:30.320 no evidence that
00:35:31.300 would change the
00:35:31.840 result.
00:35:32.560 They know that
00:35:33.020 no court ruled
00:35:33.720 anything of any
00:35:34.540 substance.
00:35:35.780 And I know
00:35:37.040 that I personally
00:35:38.600 haven't seen
00:35:39.160 anything that
00:35:39.720 would overturn
00:35:40.260 the election.
00:35:41.560 Personally, I
00:35:42.340 haven't seen it.
00:35:42.880 But can you
00:35:44.980 say, therefore,
00:35:45.680 that it's a
00:35:46.360 false claim?
00:35:48.360 You could say
00:35:49.200 it's unproven.
00:35:51.700 But somehow
00:35:52.920 the CNN
00:35:54.760 viewers let
00:35:55.500 them get away
00:35:56.080 with this.
00:35:57.560 And I think
00:35:57.880 this is one of
00:35:58.440 these things that
00:35:59.000 their new CEO
00:36:00.020 needs to maybe
00:36:01.860 put a little
00:36:02.360 thumb on.
00:36:04.000 Because I'm
00:36:05.040 perfectly okay
00:36:06.160 with CNN
00:36:07.340 saying that
00:36:09.060 so far all of
00:36:10.520 the claims made
00:36:11.460 about the
00:36:12.340 election have
00:36:12.900 been bullshit.
00:36:14.600 Because I
00:36:15.260 told you that
00:36:15.760 was going to
00:36:16.080 be the case.
00:36:16.940 I said at
00:36:17.500 least 95%
00:36:18.600 would be
00:36:19.060 bullshit.
00:36:20.080 And so
00:36:20.480 far it looks
00:36:22.560 at least 95%.
00:36:23.980 But I feel
00:36:26.480 like CNN just
00:36:27.200 makes their
00:36:27.580 viewers dumber
00:36:28.400 by asserting
00:36:30.200 that they know
00:36:31.100 something didn't
00:36:31.800 happen just
00:36:33.560 because they
00:36:34.240 don't know if
00:36:34.940 it happened.
00:36:35.360 Scott, the
00:36:40.060 suppression of
00:36:40.700 laptop most
00:36:41.380 certainly proves
00:36:42.060 its government
00:36:42.660 involvement.
00:36:42.840 Well, we know
00:36:43.320 it was government
00:36:43.800 involvement.
00:36:46.740 I don't know
00:36:47.480 why you're
00:36:47.800 yelling at me
00:36:48.960 in caps about
00:36:49.620 that.
00:36:53.720 Yeah, any
00:36:54.420 voting security
00:36:55.220 attempt will be
00:36:55.940 labeled as racist.
00:36:57.520 Well, everything
00:36:58.220 that Republicans
00:36:59.240 do gets labeled
00:37:00.080 as racist.
00:37:00.600 So there's
00:37:02.540 some guy who
00:37:03.960 owns a lithium
00:37:05.240 mining company.
00:37:06.580 He says there
00:37:06.920 won't be enough
00:37:07.440 lithium for all
00:37:08.440 the electric
00:37:09.360 cars.
00:37:11.360 There is
00:37:12.200 enough, apparently
00:37:12.880 there's enough
00:37:13.420 lithium in the
00:37:14.660 world, but the
00:37:16.460 rate at which
00:37:17.160 they can mine it
00:37:17.900 is nowhere near
00:37:18.740 fast enough to
00:37:20.400 get to the
00:37:21.100 number of
00:37:21.660 electric cars
00:37:22.460 that is the
00:37:23.260 plan.
00:37:24.480 Are you worried
00:37:24.960 about that?
00:37:26.040 How worried
00:37:26.880 should you be
00:37:27.740 that an expert
00:37:28.840 in lithium
00:37:29.900 says that
00:37:31.640 even though
00:37:32.080 there's enough
00:37:32.960 lithium in the
00:37:33.660 world, the
00:37:34.860 physical mining
00:37:37.260 of it, you
00:37:38.020 can't wrap it
00:37:38.680 up that fast.
00:37:39.580 It just takes a
00:37:40.200 long time to
00:37:40.680 get a mine
00:37:41.200 going, I
00:37:41.720 guess.
00:37:43.280 So, what
00:37:45.480 do you think
00:37:45.720 about that?
00:37:48.460 Here's a
00:37:49.180 reframe for
00:37:50.340 you.
00:37:51.860 I'm going to
00:37:52.340 call it the,
00:37:52.960 you could call
00:37:53.800 this the Elon
00:37:54.540 Musk reframe
00:37:55.620 in a way,
00:37:58.460 although,
00:37:58.860 don't blame
00:38:00.140 him for it
00:38:00.580 if you don't
00:38:00.880 like it.
00:38:01.800 It goes like
00:38:02.560 this.
00:38:03.380 I often
00:38:04.140 imagine that
00:38:04.920 my actual
00:38:05.620 reality is
00:38:06.500 like a
00:38:06.820 video game,
00:38:08.680 and that
00:38:09.480 I'm in the
00:38:10.000 video game,
00:38:11.180 and I have
00:38:13.300 a mission or
00:38:14.060 some kind of
00:38:15.220 quest, but I
00:38:17.440 have to find
00:38:18.220 weapons and
00:38:19.160 energy along
00:38:19.920 the way.
00:38:20.940 I don't know
00:38:21.780 where it's going
00:38:22.240 to be.
00:38:22.600 I have to go
00:38:23.160 find it.
00:38:24.040 So I don't
00:38:24.560 know how to
00:38:25.180 finish the
00:38:25.980 adventure, I
00:38:27.680 only know
00:38:28.220 that there's
00:38:29.100 some chance
00:38:29.720 that I can
00:38:30.280 find what I
00:38:30.940 need to
00:38:31.240 finish the
00:38:31.680 adventure.
00:38:33.080 And I
00:38:34.900 think this
00:38:35.260 is one of
00:38:35.620 those cases.
00:38:36.760 Would you
00:38:37.360 say, oh,
00:38:38.080 let's not
00:38:38.520 have any
00:38:39.060 aggressive goals
00:38:40.260 for electric
00:38:40.820 cars, because
00:38:41.960 we don't know
00:38:42.480 how to get
00:38:42.840 there?
00:38:44.740 That's sort
00:38:45.280 of a loser
00:38:45.880 approach.
00:38:48.420 We shouldn't
00:38:49.500 try, because
00:38:50.400 as of this
00:38:51.260 moment, we
00:38:51.900 don't know
00:38:52.260 how to get
00:38:52.660 there.
00:38:52.940 Because that
00:38:53.880 was true of
00:38:54.320 the moon, the
00:38:55.180 moonshot, right?
00:38:56.860 The 1969
00:38:58.260 moonshot.
00:39:00.080 When Kennedy
00:39:00.840 said we're
00:39:01.360 going to the
00:39:01.740 moon, he
00:39:02.040 didn't know
00:39:02.560 how.
00:39:03.960 He said we're
00:39:04.460 going to
00:39:04.640 figure out
00:39:05.140 how.
00:39:06.300 This to me
00:39:07.380 looks like one
00:39:08.020 of those cases.
00:39:08.960 We don't know
00:39:09.640 how we would
00:39:10.540 get enough
00:39:11.060 lithium in
00:39:12.360 time, but
00:39:13.640 all that we'll
00:39:14.080 figure it out.
00:39:15.720 So I'm going
00:39:16.320 to put this on
00:39:16.900 the category of
00:39:17.640 things I'm not
00:39:18.160 going to worry
00:39:18.480 about.
00:39:19.900 I think we'll
00:39:20.660 figure it out.
00:39:21.680 I mean, I
00:39:22.120 don't know how
00:39:22.540 to solve it.
00:39:23.700 Now, I'm
00:39:24.260 hoping that's
00:39:24.840 true also
00:39:25.620 with fertilizer.
00:39:28.760 Now, by the
00:39:29.220 way, whether I
00:39:29.840 worry about it
00:39:30.480 or not won't
00:39:31.080 change what
00:39:32.680 happens.
00:39:35.300 They should
00:39:35.920 stop pushing
00:39:36.500 electric cars
00:39:37.200 until we have
00:39:37.700 enough electricity.
00:39:39.000 I don't agree
00:39:40.120 with that.
00:39:40.800 I don't agree.
00:39:42.920 In the old
00:39:43.720 days, do you
00:39:44.260 remember the
00:39:44.600 old saying,
00:39:46.380 measure twice,
00:39:47.540 cut once?
00:39:50.180 Probably you
00:39:50.740 all learned that
00:39:51.240 when you were
00:39:51.520 a kid.
00:39:51.820 If you
00:39:52.720 ever did a
00:39:53.160 project with
00:39:54.080 a male
00:39:54.740 parent, probably
00:39:56.880 you heard that
00:39:57.320 too many times,
00:39:58.580 measure twice,
00:39:59.660 cut once.
00:40:01.100 What does
00:40:01.780 Paul Graham,
00:40:03.620 who would be
00:40:04.380 one of the
00:40:04.960 premier experts
00:40:06.300 on startups,
00:40:07.940 what does he
00:40:08.560 say about
00:40:09.120 measure twice,
00:40:10.700 cut once?
00:40:11.980 What would he
00:40:12.500 say about that?
00:40:14.460 He would say
00:40:15.320 that's old
00:40:15.760 thinking.
00:40:16.780 That's sort of
00:40:17.540 pre-internet
00:40:18.160 thinking.
00:40:18.480 We currently
00:40:20.920 have a situation
00:40:21.740 where it's
00:40:22.300 easier to go
00:40:22.920 out and try
00:40:23.400 something and
00:40:23.980 see if it
00:40:24.320 works, because
00:40:25.740 the cost of
00:40:26.420 failure is low,
00:40:27.300 especially if
00:40:27.820 it's software.
00:40:29.200 So you can
00:40:29.680 just go out
00:40:30.220 and try a
00:40:30.920 quick, dirty
00:40:32.000 version of
00:40:32.560 something and
00:40:33.000 see if anybody
00:40:33.520 responds.
00:40:34.780 If nobody
00:40:35.400 responds to
00:40:36.180 the approximate
00:40:37.040 version that's
00:40:37.980 not quite
00:40:38.420 finished, they're
00:40:39.800 not going to
00:40:40.120 respond to the
00:40:40.720 finished one
00:40:41.160 either.
00:40:41.360 So you're
00:40:42.980 better off
00:40:43.460 just pushing
00:40:44.720 ahead and
00:40:45.400 see if you
00:40:45.940 can figure
00:40:46.460 it out in
00:40:47.820 the modern
00:40:48.400 world, whereas
00:40:49.520 in the past
00:40:50.580 where there
00:40:51.020 were more
00:40:51.320 resource
00:40:51.740 constraints, you
00:40:52.920 had to kind
00:40:53.380 of know in
00:40:54.900 advance.
00:40:57.340 But let's
00:40:58.680 say the
00:41:00.200 electric car
00:41:00.920 market starts
00:41:01.600 heating up and
00:41:02.900 there's not
00:41:03.320 enough electricity.
00:41:05.100 What would
00:41:05.920 naturally happen?
00:41:07.660 Well, the
00:41:08.000 economist in
00:41:09.820 me says,
00:41:11.360 that the
00:41:12.360 sources of
00:41:13.000 electricity that
00:41:13.800 were too
00:41:14.260 expensive before
00:41:15.440 suddenly become
00:41:17.160 economical, because
00:41:18.880 the demand for
00:41:19.600 electricity would
00:41:20.340 become so
00:41:20.840 great, the
00:41:22.040 price would go
00:41:22.620 up, and
00:41:23.700 then suddenly the
00:41:24.660 person who
00:41:25.120 didn't want to
00:41:25.700 build, I
00:41:27.000 don't know, the
00:41:27.440 solar facility or
00:41:30.820 whatever, they
00:41:31.720 say, oh, now
00:41:32.480 it makes sense,
00:41:33.720 because I can
00:41:34.240 charge so much
00:41:34.960 more for
00:41:35.320 electricity.
00:41:36.280 So I've got a
00:41:37.140 feeling that this
00:41:39.800 is not unusual
00:41:40.740 for leadership.
00:41:42.920 So one of the
00:41:43.700 things that
00:41:44.140 California got
00:41:44.980 criticized for,
00:41:46.480 and you're
00:41:46.880 going to hate
00:41:47.200 this, you're
00:41:49.380 going to hate
00:41:49.680 this.
00:41:51.580 Some of you
00:41:52.260 might want to
00:41:52.640 just turn off the
00:41:53.320 live stream before
00:41:54.020 I even say the
00:41:54.640 next thing I'm
00:41:55.180 going to say.
00:41:55.780 You're going to
00:41:56.180 hate this so
00:41:56.740 much.
00:41:57.580 Like, you're
00:41:58.060 really going to
00:41:58.480 hate this.
00:42:01.820 Newsom's right.
00:42:03.960 Newsom's right.
00:42:04.620 to push the
00:42:06.540 electric cars
00:42:07.300 before we have
00:42:07.980 enough electricity
00:42:08.740 to power them.
00:42:10.280 That's the right
00:42:10.900 play.
00:42:12.440 Because he's
00:42:13.420 forcing people to
00:42:14.300 figure it out.
00:42:15.880 And the market
00:42:16.720 likes money.
00:42:17.960 So he's creating a
00:42:18.860 situation where they
00:42:19.720 can make money by
00:42:20.620 figuring it out.
00:42:22.000 And I believe they
00:42:22.740 will.
00:42:23.960 I believe they
00:42:24.520 will.
00:42:26.520 Yeah.
00:42:27.120 Now, here I'm
00:42:28.820 drawing on, you
00:42:29.920 know, years of
00:42:30.760 management,
00:42:31.280 observation, and
00:42:33.200 experience.
00:42:34.580 And here I'm
00:42:35.320 agreeing with the
00:42:36.300 Paul Graham version
00:42:37.600 of the world, but I
00:42:38.380 don't want to blame
00:42:39.000 him in case I'm
00:42:40.980 misstating his
00:42:41.660 opinion.
00:42:42.460 Don't blame Paul
00:42:43.300 Graham for anything
00:42:43.940 I say, okay?
00:42:45.080 Just blame me.
00:42:47.880 And I feel that in
00:42:49.440 the new world, you
00:42:51.960 start first and then
00:42:53.420 figure it out.
00:42:54.940 Do you think Elon
00:42:55.740 Musk knew how to
00:42:56.960 build a rocket to
00:42:58.740 get to Mars when he
00:43:00.640 started putting
00:43:01.220 his money into it?
00:43:02.500 No.
00:43:03.640 Do you think he
00:43:04.260 knew how to build
00:43:04.920 an electric car
00:43:05.860 before he built
00:43:06.520 one?
00:43:07.160 No.
00:43:08.420 No.
00:43:09.500 Do you think he
00:43:10.120 knew how to put
00:43:12.000 up the, what do
00:43:14.640 you call it, the
00:43:15.020 Starlink network of
00:43:16.360 satellites before he
00:43:17.540 did it?
00:43:18.640 Oh, yeah, he
00:43:19.180 probably knew that
00:43:19.720 one.
00:43:21.420 But by the time he
00:43:22.620 had Starlink, I
00:43:24.400 think that one you
00:43:25.060 could just work out
00:43:26.080 on paper and you
00:43:26.800 know exactly what
00:43:27.580 you're getting.
00:43:28.460 Because I think
00:43:28.960 they knew how to
00:43:29.460 make small
00:43:29.960 satellites.
00:43:31.220 So he really
00:43:32.420 just had to figure
00:43:33.080 out the rocket
00:43:33.620 part.
00:43:35.160 So that one
00:43:36.240 actually he
00:43:36.760 probably had a
00:43:37.720 pretty good idea
00:43:38.300 what was going to
00:43:38.940 work out with
00:43:39.740 that.
00:43:43.900 The car was
00:43:44.720 already electric
00:43:45.380 when Elon joined
00:43:46.680 Tesla.
00:43:47.480 Well, it was, but
00:43:48.480 it wasn't marketed
00:43:50.260 and successful.
00:43:51.820 I think, and I
00:43:53.280 think Elon would
00:43:54.080 say the same thing
00:43:54.980 in his own words,
00:43:56.020 cars, which is
00:43:57.460 that inventing an
00:44:00.400 electric car was
00:44:02.140 only a part of the
00:44:02.900 process.
00:44:04.400 Getting people to
00:44:06.380 the psychology of
00:44:07.580 wanting to own
00:44:08.260 one so that you
00:44:09.800 could start building
00:44:10.540 on the economics of
00:44:11.740 volume was the
00:44:13.000 hard part.
00:44:14.400 And so he solved
00:44:15.260 that by having the
00:44:17.000 coolest electric car
00:44:18.780 that would go crazy
00:44:19.820 fast.
00:44:20.240 So if you were a
00:44:21.520 car person, you'd
00:44:22.200 be like, oh, there's
00:44:23.220 a car that goes
00:44:23.880 that fast.
00:44:25.520 Oh, I got to have
00:44:26.720 one.
00:44:27.860 So he worked on the
00:44:29.240 psychology of buyers
00:44:30.640 in a way that nobody
00:44:32.220 had figured out how to
00:44:33.080 do.
00:44:33.700 Look what the Prius
00:44:35.320 did and others.
00:44:37.000 They built the
00:44:37.580 ugliest little car that
00:44:38.740 nobody wants to try to
00:44:40.820 get you all to own
00:44:41.740 cars like that.
00:44:43.760 Seriously?
00:44:44.240 That's like completely
00:44:46.620 ignoring everything you
00:44:47.840 know about human
00:44:48.540 psychology.
00:44:49.460 We're going to make it
00:44:50.340 real embarrassing to
00:44:51.560 drive this little, you
00:44:53.080 know, this little
00:44:53.760 Prius.
00:44:55.300 But, and by the way,
00:44:57.320 even with that
00:44:57.980 approach, they sold a
00:44:58.840 ton of Priuses.
00:44:59.920 The Prius was a
00:45:00.760 gigantic hit.
00:45:02.860 But it didn't get you
00:45:05.400 all the way to
00:45:05.840 electric cars.
00:45:07.440 To go all the way to
00:45:08.300 electric cars, you
00:45:09.720 needed the Elon
00:45:10.780 magic, which is
00:45:11.800 working on the brain.
00:45:12.860 So what he invented
00:45:14.660 was a way to
00:45:15.700 reprogram your brain
00:45:17.140 about electric cars.
00:45:19.400 That's his best
00:45:20.320 invention so far.
00:45:23.400 Also making you
00:45:24.440 think that going to
00:45:25.160 Mars is not only
00:45:26.860 practical, it's not
00:45:29.280 only practical, but
00:45:30.600 it's necessary.
00:45:32.860 Just think about
00:45:33.800 that.
00:45:35.760 Elon Musk persuaded
00:45:37.860 the entire, at
00:45:39.120 least the country,
00:45:40.120 if not the world,
00:45:41.900 that going to Mars
00:45:42.860 is both practical
00:45:44.400 and necessary.
00:45:49.320 That did not exist
00:45:50.660 until Elon Musk
00:45:51.800 told us those are
00:45:53.040 both things.
00:45:53.820 Oh yeah, I can do
00:45:54.760 it, and it's
00:45:55.960 absolutely necessary
00:45:56.860 to, you know, for
00:45:58.140 human survival that
00:45:59.300 we go to the stars.
00:46:00.700 And he's right.
00:46:02.020 He's right.
00:46:04.440 All right.
00:46:07.740 How many of you
00:46:08.640 know what the
00:46:09.260 Monroe Doctrine is?
00:46:10.660 Do you all know
00:46:13.900 what the Monroe
00:46:14.560 Doctrine is?
00:46:16.120 So Monroe, one of
00:46:17.180 the founders,
00:46:20.000 had the doctrine
00:46:21.580 that says, you
00:46:22.980 Europeans, you
00:46:24.080 can't conquer any
00:46:25.220 countries over in
00:46:26.460 the Americas.
00:46:27.220 It doesn't matter
00:46:27.740 if it's North
00:46:29.520 America or South
00:46:30.460 America or Central
00:46:31.420 America.
00:46:32.520 You Europeans,
00:46:33.980 and at the time
00:46:34.740 they were just
00:46:35.120 thinking Europeans,
00:46:35.980 they weren't worried
00:46:37.040 about Asia, but
00:46:39.260 let's extend that.
00:46:40.860 The point was,
00:46:41.960 no foreign country
00:46:43.100 taking over one of
00:46:44.280 our American
00:46:45.900 clients, if you
00:46:47.200 will.
00:46:47.780 Because at the
00:46:48.300 time, I think
00:46:49.440 America felt like
00:46:50.300 it was sort of
00:46:51.640 dad to everything
00:46:52.580 over here.
00:46:53.420 So we had some
00:46:54.260 power over them,
00:46:55.520 even though they
00:46:56.060 didn't like it.
00:46:58.540 But Putin just
00:46:59.640 put out his
00:47:00.400 Putin-Monroe
00:47:01.600 Doctrine that
00:47:03.100 basically says that
00:47:04.280 Russia has some
00:47:06.160 kind of responsibility
00:47:07.420 or rights to
00:47:09.780 the Russian-speaking
00:47:11.140 ethnic Russian
00:47:12.200 people, even if
00:47:13.820 they're in
00:47:14.200 neighboring countries.
00:47:17.300 Do you see any
00:47:18.320 problem with that?
00:47:21.200 Putin is claiming
00:47:22.420 some responsibility
00:47:23.540 for other countries,
00:47:26.840 which means trying
00:47:29.580 to control those
00:47:30.460 other countries.
00:47:31.760 Now, there's some
00:47:32.600 history to it, so
00:47:33.720 it's not like it's
00:47:34.340 something you just
00:47:34.820 made up.
00:47:35.440 Russia has always
00:47:36.600 tried to dominate
00:47:37.300 its neighbors, but
00:47:39.360 kind of dangerous.
00:47:42.240 It's kind of
00:47:42.860 dangerous.
00:47:44.640 I don't see how
00:47:45.680 this could be more
00:47:46.340 dangerous.
00:47:48.460 So keep an eye on
00:47:49.640 that.
00:47:51.460 Apparently, Russia
00:47:52.340 has turned off the
00:47:53.780 Nord Stream 1
00:47:54.880 pipeline completely,
00:47:56.660 and they're basically
00:47:58.340 just trying to
00:47:59.100 freeze Germany.
00:48:00.600 now, is there
00:48:05.700 any history in
00:48:06.520 the world of
00:48:07.360 countries that
00:48:09.180 tried to destroy
00:48:10.040 Germany, and
00:48:12.140 then it worked
00:48:12.860 out in the long
00:48:13.480 run?
00:48:14.820 I feel like
00:48:15.780 trying to destroy
00:48:16.840 Germany from a
00:48:18.560 historical perspective,
00:48:21.900 that's how you get
00:48:24.160 Hitler, right?
00:48:26.100 Now, I don't think
00:48:26.700 there's much chance
00:48:27.480 of Germany producing
00:48:28.460 another Hitler
00:48:29.040 anytime soon, but
00:48:30.820 correct me on my
00:48:33.040 history, but
00:48:35.460 wasn't it the
00:48:36.320 World War I
00:48:37.580 treatment of a
00:48:39.580 defeated Germany
00:48:40.440 that caused the
00:48:41.860 rise of Hitler?
00:48:44.280 Or is that more,
00:48:46.520 is that an accurate
00:48:47.520 history, or is that
00:48:48.380 just sort of the
00:48:49.160 version the winners
00:48:50.940 gave us?
00:48:52.040 Is that accurate?
00:48:53.380 Does anybody say
00:48:54.160 that's not accurate?
00:48:55.660 Okay.
00:48:56.480 So here we have
00:48:57.620 Russians basically
00:48:59.820 treating Germans in
00:49:01.300 a way that I feel
00:49:05.200 like Germans, let me
00:49:07.900 explain Germans for
00:49:08.860 you, because I've
00:49:12.000 got enough of that
00:49:12.880 blood in me, and
00:49:14.800 I've got a bunch of
00:49:16.060 British and Irish and
00:49:17.580 Scotch and Welch and
00:49:19.040 Dutch and German, but I
00:49:21.760 think it's about half
00:49:22.380 German, and Germans
00:49:28.140 are the most helpful,
00:49:31.580 friendly, give you the
00:49:34.500 shirt off your back
00:49:35.520 kind of people you
00:49:37.180 could ever have, until
00:49:40.640 you really piss them
00:49:41.660 off.
00:49:44.800 Am I right?
00:49:46.980 Shirt off their back.
00:49:48.240 They will help you so
00:49:50.260 fast, anything you
00:49:52.440 want.
00:49:53.740 I remember this story
00:49:54.860 when I first moved to
00:49:56.860 San Francisco, I had
00:49:58.000 this tiny little, like,
00:50:01.020 in-law apartment that
00:50:02.160 only had one room and a
00:50:03.700 bathroom, basically.
00:50:05.280 And my landlord, who
00:50:08.540 lived in the larger
00:50:09.780 building above, he was a
00:50:12.400 German immigrant, and he
00:50:16.320 had the very German
00:50:17.360 attitude.
00:50:18.000 And one day I told
00:50:18.740 them that I had rented
00:50:20.820 a dumpster, and I just
00:50:24.120 wanted to inform them
00:50:24.920 that it would be, you
00:50:25.760 know, parked outside for
00:50:26.840 a day or two, because I
00:50:28.440 had some garbage to get
00:50:30.260 rid of, and I had a lot
00:50:31.180 of it.
00:50:32.240 And I said, hey, I'm
00:50:33.580 only going to use part of
00:50:34.460 this dumpster, so if
00:50:35.900 you'd like, if you have
00:50:37.020 any stuff, just throw it
00:50:38.140 in the dumpster, too, and
00:50:39.980 you know, it's free.
00:50:41.660 I already paid for it.
00:50:42.780 Do you know what my
00:50:44.740 German-born landlord, his
00:50:47.980 response to that?
00:50:49.240 Just take a guess.
00:50:50.840 What was his response to
00:50:52.920 me offering him a free
00:50:54.640 service that he wanted, like
00:50:57.440 he wanted the service?
00:50:58.560 He had stuff to throw
00:50:59.340 out.
00:51:00.780 He couldn't handle the
00:51:02.180 fact that I was paying
00:51:03.020 for it.
00:51:04.220 Couldn't handle it.
00:51:05.340 Because he had a lot of
00:51:06.780 money, and he knew I could
00:51:08.920 barely afford my apartment.
00:51:12.120 And so for me to barely
00:51:13.540 afford my apartment and pay
00:51:14.980 for something for him,
00:51:16.720 couldn't handle it.
00:51:18.360 Couldn't I handle it?
00:51:20.220 But I'm half German, too.
00:51:23.980 So we did a lot of this.
00:51:27.660 I don't even remember how we
00:51:29.900 finally resolved it.
00:51:32.040 But we got in a fight about,
00:51:33.800 not a real fight, but, you
00:51:35.840 know, a disagreement about
00:51:37.120 who was going to be nicer
00:51:38.080 to the other.
00:51:41.520 Now, that was such a
00:51:43.500 German interaction.
00:51:45.440 Such a German interaction.
00:51:48.720 And so I'm watching Russia
00:51:50.200 say to Germany, hey,
00:51:53.000 Germany, what are you going
00:51:54.920 to do if I poke you?
00:51:56.420 If I poke you?
00:51:57.760 Nothing.
00:51:58.880 I won't watch it.
00:51:59.660 I'll poke you a little
00:52:00.340 more.
00:52:01.400 How about that?
00:52:02.140 Oh, you're complaining a
00:52:03.720 little bit.
00:52:04.620 You're complaining a
00:52:05.280 little bit.
00:52:05.460 That's nothing.
00:52:06.020 I'll poke you a little bit.
00:52:07.000 I'll poke you.
00:52:10.600 There's a point.
00:52:13.140 Let me explain to you.
00:52:16.400 There's a point at which
00:52:18.600 Germans stop being friendly.
00:52:22.980 You don't want to reach that
00:52:24.400 point.
00:52:25.360 You really, really don't want
00:52:27.120 to reach that point.
00:52:27.980 And Putin's getting pretty
00:52:29.740 close.
00:52:31.260 Now, again, I think the
00:52:33.040 modern view of Germany is
00:52:34.500 that it's like a big puppy
00:52:36.460 dog that's been defanged.
00:52:39.040 Right?
00:52:39.480 You know, oh, they're not
00:52:40.200 going to cause any trouble
00:52:41.080 because of their history.
00:52:43.960 Well, but who has pissed
00:52:45.480 them off this much before?
00:52:47.940 Right?
00:52:48.180 Now, maybe they say we
00:52:49.300 brought it on ourselves to
00:52:50.340 some extent or something.
00:52:51.360 But I would be really
00:52:53.940 careful about how hard
00:52:55.840 you push Germany.
00:52:57.300 I'd be really careful
00:52:58.240 about that.
00:53:00.040 Because that could sneak
00:53:01.080 up on you.
00:53:04.260 I guess Russia is buying
00:53:06.240 Iranian drones and
00:53:08.480 millions of North Korean
00:53:09.700 artillery shells.
00:53:13.440 Now, is that
00:53:15.600 foreshadowing?
00:53:16.760 All right, so
00:53:19.800 what Europe is going to
00:53:22.320 be lacking will be
00:53:23.220 energy.
00:53:24.680 But at least energy can
00:53:26.060 be produced in different
00:53:27.240 ways.
00:53:28.040 And, you know, I think
00:53:30.140 they'll survive the winter.
00:53:32.720 And then there'll be
00:53:34.140 enough time to start
00:53:34.920 adjusting and getting
00:53:36.880 other sources.
00:53:38.300 But if you see Russia
00:53:40.280 trying to operate without
00:53:41.420 modern technology, they
00:53:42.960 don't have chips and they
00:53:44.780 can't trade to get the
00:53:45.720 good stuff anymore.
00:53:46.760 If they have to rely on
00:53:48.060 Iranian drones, which
00:53:49.260 have been pretty sketchy,
00:53:51.100 and I don't know what the
00:53:52.180 quality of North Korean
00:53:53.220 artillery shells is, but
00:53:56.840 doesn't that tell you
00:53:58.700 they're in a lot of
00:53:59.320 trouble?
00:54:00.900 Now, the news from
00:54:02.320 Ukraine, which is
00:54:03.740 completely not credible,
00:54:05.480 by the way, anything that
00:54:06.600 comes out of Ukraine is
00:54:07.660 not to be believed, but
00:54:09.360 the news that they're
00:54:10.120 telling is that they're
00:54:11.960 counter-offensive in
00:54:13.340 Kyrgyzstan or wherever
00:54:14.640 is, you know, having small
00:54:16.620 gains, you know, they're
00:54:17.800 degrading the Russians and
00:54:19.080 getting ready to make some
00:54:20.540 move there.
00:54:21.340 Now, I don't know if any of
00:54:22.260 that's true.
00:54:23.860 That would be the least
00:54:25.300 credible, yeah, that's the
00:54:26.820 least credible thing that
00:54:28.480 comes out of a war zone, is
00:54:30.120 our team's winning.
00:54:32.180 I'm pretty sure the Russians
00:54:33.240 think they're winning, too.
00:54:35.960 But I'm surprised we got to
00:54:39.620 this point where what we're
00:54:40.840 talking about is the
00:54:41.680 Ukrainian counter-attack.
00:54:42.940 When was the last time
00:54:45.040 somebody said Russia has
00:54:46.140 gained more territory?
00:54:47.900 How long has it been since
00:54:49.240 Russia gained territory?
00:54:53.620 I feel like there's a
00:54:55.280 momentum shift, right?
00:54:56.640 Now, I think that the
00:54:58.160 counter-attack might be a
00:54:59.480 little bit fake, meaning that
00:55:02.120 Zelensky is so good at
00:55:03.600 managing public opinion that
00:55:06.000 once the news of Russian
00:55:07.720 territorial gains has
00:55:09.540 stopped, he needed a
00:55:11.340 counter-narrative, to say,
00:55:12.660 oh, if it's not going to be
00:55:14.760 in the news that Russia is
00:55:15.800 winning, we better create
00:55:17.400 some news that we're
00:55:18.180 winning, and people will
00:55:19.840 give us more money, because
00:55:20.960 it looks like we're
00:55:21.900 winning.
00:55:22.620 So mostly, I think the
00:55:23.720 counter-attack is a
00:55:25.020 fundraising technique.
00:55:29.060 I don't know that Zelensky
00:55:30.680 thinks he can recapture
00:55:32.080 anything.
00:55:33.060 I think he just says, hey,
00:55:34.680 we're making progress, give
00:55:35.860 us more money, and we'll
00:55:36.740 make some more progress.
00:55:38.000 So it just looks like
00:55:38.980 fundraising to me.
00:55:41.340 Surprisingly, a poll of a
00:55:47.740 European opinion of the
00:55:49.260 Ukraine situation is that
00:55:51.320 they're very supportive of
00:55:53.820 the economic sanctions on
00:55:55.920 Russia, which means that
00:55:57.800 they won't have energy
00:55:58.740 themselves, meaning it'll be
00:56:00.800 too expensive for a lot of
00:56:02.700 them.
00:56:03.640 But 7 out of 10 in the EU are
00:56:06.380 in favor of military supplies
00:56:10.240 to Ukraine, and 78% of
00:56:12.720 citizens support the
00:56:15.080 sanctions against Russia.
00:56:16.200 I mean, that is really
00:56:16.820 strong support.
00:56:18.700 That is really strong
00:56:19.940 support.
00:56:23.140 So if you have that much
00:56:25.540 support, it looks like the
00:56:28.560 Europeans have decided that
00:56:30.080 Russia is not going to kill
00:56:32.200 them.
00:56:33.020 They're going to take whatever
00:56:34.020 level of, let's say,
00:56:35.620 inconvenience and discomfort
00:56:36.940 it requires.
00:56:39.500 Have I ever, of course I
00:56:41.680 have, told you the difference
00:56:42.980 between wanting something and
00:56:44.420 deciding?
00:56:47.220 It's one of those critical
00:56:48.920 differences.
00:56:50.020 Because once you detect in
00:56:51.700 somebody a decision, you can
00:56:54.420 predict that they will
00:56:55.260 succeed.
00:56:56.480 But if you only see them
00:56:57.740 having a strong desire for
00:56:59.220 something, it could go either
00:57:00.800 way.
00:57:02.220 Decision is really predictive.
00:57:03.720 And it looks to me like the
00:57:05.680 Europeans made a decision.
00:57:07.760 Am I wrong?
00:57:08.660 I saw some people are from
00:57:10.520 Europe watching.
00:57:12.600 All right.
00:57:12.780 If there are any, I know
00:57:13.840 there are.
00:57:14.440 But the Europeans who are
00:57:15.500 watching right now, would you
00:57:18.140 say that Europe has decided
00:57:19.640 that they're going to power
00:57:21.000 through this?
00:57:22.460 And they're going to take
00:57:23.240 Putin down by forever
00:57:25.440 taking him out of the
00:57:26.400 pipeline?
00:57:27.840 Right?
00:57:29.340 So if you're from Europe,
00:57:31.060 identify yourself.
00:57:37.780 Massive protests in the
00:57:39.060 Czech Republic?
00:57:40.600 Yep.
00:57:42.000 Yep.
00:57:43.560 You're from Europe, but
00:57:44.720 what's your opinion?
00:57:46.140 Massive protests?
00:57:48.780 Yeah.
00:57:50.160 But is it safe to say that
00:57:52.000 Europe doesn't just want
00:57:54.380 Putin to do poorly?
00:57:57.640 It looks like they've
00:57:58.440 decided.
00:57:59.200 They've just decided that
00:58:00.420 he's not going to have
00:58:01.060 that market anymore.
00:58:03.560 I think you can now
00:58:04.700 predict how that goes.
00:58:06.660 I think you can predict
00:58:07.700 that Putin's withdrawal
00:58:10.200 of energy will not have
00:58:12.080 the political impact he
00:58:13.320 hopes.
00:58:14.220 It looks like Europe
00:58:15.140 decided.
00:58:16.740 Because you don't see that
00:58:17.800 much agreement about
00:58:18.740 pretty much anything.
00:58:23.140 All right.
00:58:23.780 And that is the exciting
00:58:30.740 show for today.
00:58:34.340 Lots of suffering for
00:58:35.420 many winters.
00:58:36.200 I don't know.
00:58:36.600 I think this is a two
00:58:37.540 winter situation.
00:58:40.020 I don't think it's a
00:58:41.100 many winter situation.
00:58:42.280 I think it's a two
00:58:42.920 winter.
00:58:44.660 I'm not positive about
00:58:45.800 that.
00:58:46.740 We'll see.
00:58:47.200 Yeah, I think that our
00:58:52.960 ability to adjust to big
00:58:55.920 shocks is about a two
00:58:57.840 year these days.
00:58:59.340 We're just so good at
00:59:00.840 adjusting.
00:59:03.140 Everyone says they can
00:59:04.120 take the pain until the
00:59:04.980 pain starts.
00:59:05.700 Well, that's true.
00:59:10.980 Will the USA help?
00:59:12.940 I don't know.
00:59:13.540 Just printing unlimited
00:59:15.540 unlimited money.
00:59:21.060 Yeah, we need mass
00:59:22.840 production of micro
00:59:24.480 processors.
00:59:26.700 I think Elon's money is
00:59:28.000 in fusion, though.
00:59:30.760 I might be wrong about
00:59:31.760 that.
00:59:32.260 But I think Elon is a
00:59:34.720 generation ahead.
00:59:36.880 Where you expect him to
00:59:38.140 be, I guess.
00:59:38.620 six million elderly
00:59:46.460 Germans live alone.
00:59:50.560 You know, the number of
00:59:51.780 people living alone
00:59:52.880 is really a gigantic
00:59:56.380 problem.
00:59:58.540 You know, there's a
00:59:59.560 trend of seniors living
01:00:01.240 with college students.
01:00:03.720 Have you heard that?
01:00:04.360 You know, like one senior
01:00:06.780 and one college student
01:00:07.860 because they, you know,
01:00:09.060 the senior can provide
01:00:10.400 the cheap housing and
01:00:13.140 the kid, the young
01:00:15.300 person can provide some
01:00:16.320 services and stuff.
01:00:18.340 To me, that's the best.
01:00:20.160 I've actually considered
01:00:21.040 that model.
01:00:22.240 I was actually thinking of
01:00:23.480 getting a college
01:00:25.820 student roommate.
01:00:27.920 just to have somebody
01:00:31.040 around who has a
01:00:33.140 different set of, you
01:00:34.780 know, skills and
01:00:35.820 schedule than I do.
01:00:37.640 Because, you know, my
01:00:38.540 problem is the only way
01:00:39.720 that anybody would know
01:00:40.700 if I died in my house
01:00:41.900 was if I didn't do the
01:00:44.320 live stream for two
01:00:45.180 days in a row.
01:00:47.020 If I missed it once, you
01:00:49.020 know, you might just
01:00:49.620 think I had a sick day.
01:00:51.140 But if I missed it twice,
01:00:52.520 you know, they'd probably
01:00:53.640 do a health check at my
01:00:54.980 house.
01:00:57.920 All right.
01:00:59.180 I need to run.
01:01:00.980 Got to do something.
01:01:02.180 And I will talk to you
01:01:02.940 later.
01:01:03.640 Bye for now.