Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1862 Scott Adams： Imaginary Civil War Updates, And What About Those Hunted Republicans？

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody, and congratulations for what you've done for the world so far.

00:00:10.540 Yeah, you woke up, you became part of it, and so far you're on the verge of the best day you've ever had.

00:00:18.980 What would it take to put you across that line into the best day that you've ever had?

00:00:25.680 Well, all you need is a cup or mug or a glass of tank or chelsea stein, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind, fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:35.620 I like coffee.

00:00:37.300 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine here today that makes everything better.

00:00:42.640 It's called the simultaneous sip.

00:00:45.800 It happens now.

00:00:47.520 Go.

00:00:52.740 Oh, shudder.

00:00:55.680 Quiver.

00:00:59.260 Savor it.

00:01:00.220 Savor it.

00:01:01.440 Okay.

00:01:02.320 We're good now.

00:01:03.820 Now, did I tell you about my little health mystery?

00:01:07.520 I was trying to figure out why when I write, I become so tired that I actually fall asleep instantly.

00:01:14.680 But when I do other things, I'm not necessarily tired.

00:01:18.380 Like right now, I don't feel tired at all.

00:01:21.380 But sometime later today, I probably will.

00:01:25.720 Now, yesterday, I did a little experiment.

00:01:27.800 And I recommend this process for all of you.

00:01:30.300 If there's something in your lifestyle or your diet or your practice that's not working, try to isolate it.

00:01:40.000 Try to isolate it.

00:01:41.320 So yesterday, I actually very methodically tried to see what it is that wakes me up about going to Starbucks.

00:01:48.780 Because when I go to Starbucks, I can sit there and write as long as I want.

00:01:53.680 I'm not even a little bit tired.

00:01:55.640 I was trying to figure out, is it the environment, the temperature, the people around, or is it just the caffeine?

00:02:01.260 Now, I couldn't understand it would be the caffeine, because I drink coffee continuously.

00:02:09.400 Is there some magic about Starbucks coffee?

00:02:12.360 So this is what I was testing.

00:02:14.360 So the first thing I did was I tested how I felt before I went.

00:02:19.320 So it was around noon.

00:02:21.540 And I was so tired, I could barely walk.

00:02:26.600 Now, that's not hyperbole.

00:02:28.200 I mean, walking across the flat surface in my house was a challenge.

00:02:34.160 It was actually hard to the point where I really didn't even want to be standing.

00:02:38.180 I wanted to sit down.

00:02:40.200 And so that's how tired I was.

00:02:41.760 This was not normal tired.

00:02:43.660 This is not tired like, oh, I didn't get sleep last night.

00:02:47.280 Because I did it on a day when I had plenty of sleep.

00:02:50.140 So I eliminated lack of sleep, because it was a day I had plenty of sleep.

00:02:56.140 So it wasn't lack of sleep.

00:02:58.200 And I was exhausted.

00:03:00.440 So I thought, well, maybe it's diet or something like that.

00:03:03.600 So I go to Starbucks.

00:03:04.820 And the first thing I do is, since you're waiting for your beverage, I wanted to see how awake I was just sitting at a table.

00:03:13.420 Because I thought, maybe it's the environment.

00:03:15.100 And I did feel, in fact, a little bit more awake.

00:03:20.060 Maybe a 20% difference.

00:03:22.280 It was noticeable.

00:03:23.700 But just being in an environment with more action and stuff.

00:03:27.260 But also, the temperature, I estimate, was probably 68 degrees.

00:03:31.740 Now, if you're in a place that has a heat wave going on, as I am, you've probably had your house as 75 or above for a while now.

00:03:44.240 So when you go from 75 to, it felt like 68.

00:03:48.240 It might have been not 68.

00:03:50.280 But it was cold.

00:03:52.060 It was actually cold in there.

00:03:54.080 And it wasn't too cold that I had to leave or get a jacket.

00:03:57.640 But it was, like, right on the edge.

00:04:00.160 Right?

00:04:00.820 So it could be the temperature.

00:04:03.300 Right?

00:04:03.460 So then my drink comes.

00:04:04.780 It's an icy drink with a, I don't know, a shot of coffee in it.

00:04:10.560 And I'm drinking my drink.

00:04:12.900 And I only have, like, this much of a large thing.

00:04:17.280 And already, instantly, I could feel a difference.

00:04:21.160 By the time I was done with my one drink, and I had a little banana bread just so I had something else with me.

00:04:28.760 By the time I was done, I was wide awake.

00:04:31.840 And I could write infinitely.

00:04:33.840 And, in fact, it was so much fun to write because it was so easy.

00:04:36.980 I wanted to stay for another hour.

00:04:38.700 But, you know, I don't like to stay at a Starbucks for two hours.

00:04:42.440 I feel like I'm taking up a chair.

00:04:44.800 But I stayed there for an hour.

00:04:47.260 So here's the mystery.

00:04:49.100 I eliminated lack of sleep.

00:04:51.340 That's not what the problem was.

00:04:54.260 I eliminated, and by the way, I was going to go to the gym before I went to Starbucks, but I couldn't.

00:05:00.800 I couldn't.

00:05:02.420 I just couldn't do it.

00:05:04.880 But after the Starbucks, I was like, oh, I could totally.

00:05:07.600 I went to the gym, and not only did I have a good workout, it was a really good one.

00:05:13.520 It was like one of the best.

00:05:15.440 So I went from literally, and again, this is not hyperbole, it was difficult to walk on a flat surface.

00:05:23.080 It was too much energy.

00:05:24.440 I couldn't handle it.

00:05:25.200 To having a Starbucks experience, and being able to go to the gym, and do a vigorous workout, and then wide awake all night.

00:05:35.000 Not a problem for the rest of the day.

00:05:36.780 Got all kinds of stuff done.

00:05:38.620 So you tell me what happened.

00:05:41.680 I don't understand this.

00:05:43.440 And I'm sure I can reproduce this, by the way.

00:05:45.660 Because it's similar enough to other experiences.

00:05:47.760 It appears that it's actually the drink.

00:05:53.460 It's the drink.

00:05:55.620 So there's something in that drink that is completely unlike the literally Starbucks coffee that I drink all day.

00:06:03.080 This is Starbucks.

00:06:06.160 Look at the size of this mug.

00:06:08.780 Look at the size of the mug.

00:06:10.220 And then, right, and then double this, because I drink about two of these before noon.

00:06:18.080 And it doesn't make any difference to my energy level.

00:06:21.800 None.

00:06:22.860 Like, well, I mean, I'm sure it would be better than if I didn't do it.

00:06:26.520 But I couldn't even walk with just regular coffee.

00:06:31.480 But as soon as I had that Starbucks drink, I went to the gym.

00:06:35.340 Fine.

00:06:36.140 Everything was fine.

00:06:36.780 What do you think it is?

00:06:42.580 I think it's 20% ambiance and temperature.

00:06:46.960 And 80% caffeine.

00:06:49.660 But, or 80% the drink.

00:06:52.500 But maybe it's the sugar.

00:06:54.460 But here's the thing.

00:06:55.320 I can do sugary treats at home, and it wouldn't make any difference.

00:07:00.260 So here's the next thing I'm going to test.

00:07:03.060 Next thing I'll test is I'll drive there, I'll get the drink, and I'll drive directly.

00:07:06.780 Home, because it's only five minutes away.

00:07:09.100 And then I'll do the Starbucks drink at home and see if I stay awake.

00:07:15.800 All right.

00:07:16.140 So I'm isolating, you know, variables.

00:07:18.540 All right.

00:07:18.760 So the larger point of this was not about me.

00:07:22.600 In my book, well, I guess this is about me, too.

00:07:25.020 In my book, I had to fail at almost everything and still went big.

00:07:29.680 One of the big tips I give is that you should experiment with your own health.

00:07:36.580 And you should always do it.

00:07:38.100 You should be in a continuous, never-stop, long-term experiment to say, okay, if I eat peanuts, does it make me less hungry?

00:07:47.380 Because allegedly they do.

00:07:49.380 I've tried that, and it works.

00:07:52.220 Eating peanuts does make you less hungry.

00:07:55.880 So every time you have a hypothesis, try to isolate all the other variables and really see if it makes a difference.

00:08:02.040 Because whatever this is, this is a major, major deal in my happiness and life.

00:08:08.700 So I'm just isolating it.

00:08:10.600 I'll figure it out.

00:08:15.560 I saw a funny tweet by James Newbury, a user on, just a Twitter user.

00:08:22.140 And he said that somewhere around 25 years ago, I got my first tech job.

00:08:27.280 We were on a jihad to connect everyone on the Internet.

00:08:31.260 Our thinking was that if every person had access to the entire sum of human knowledge,

00:08:36.060 then humanity would be smarter. 0.97

00:08:38.000 His last sentence is, in hindsight, we were so fucking naive. 0.98

00:08:51.820 Talk about the greatest fail of all time. 0.97

00:08:56.800 Hey, if I work really hard, weekends and nights, I could get everybody connected to the Internet,

00:09:05.100 and then we'll all be smarter.

00:09:08.000 Well, well, here's what they did not see coming. 0.98

00:09:18.100 If you empower the dumbest among us to have an equal voice, 0.98

00:09:23.820 that's not going to work out. 0.99

00:09:25.900 And that's what happened.

00:09:27.080 So in the old pre-Internet days, what did it take for somebody to get noticed?

00:09:35.260 Before the Internet, what did you have to do to rise high enough that you could be in, say, a newspaper or give a speech?

00:09:42.620 You know, you had to do a lot.

00:09:45.620 You probably had to be really educated and accomplished.

00:09:48.320 You probably had to be rich.

00:09:49.760 Other people had to think you had some substance.

00:09:53.040 Right? 0.99

00:09:53.140 But now all you need is a Twitter account and say some provocative things and you get followers and you can be as dumb as you want. 0.99

00:10:01.020 So I think when we enabled the dumbest among us to be full participants in the intellectual discourse, 0.98

00:10:10.840 maybe we should have seen that problem coming. 0.98

00:10:14.300 Maybe we could have anticipated that one.

00:10:17.080 Now, what is the antidote to that? 0.99

00:10:20.020 The antidote, what is the antidote to too many dumb people on the Internet? 0.99

00:10:25.220 What is it? 0.99

00:10:28.440 It's this. 0.94

00:10:30.800 Okay, Robert, there's a good hypothesis on YouTube of fellatio.

00:10:38.180 And I'm going to take that as a solid number two solution, really, for just about everything.

00:10:45.600 In fact, you know, I'm no doctor, so don't take this as medical advice. 0.91

00:10:50.420 But there are very few problems you can't solve with fellatio. 0.59

00:10:56.220 I'm talking about being on the receiving end here.

00:10:59.340 If you're on the giving end, that doesn't solve as many problems.

00:11:02.300 But it can also solve problems.

00:11:04.080 It can also solve problems.

00:11:05.720 So really, there's not much it can't do.

00:11:08.940 I think I was talking about something else, though. 0.96

00:11:11.160 Oh, so the solution to all the dumb people on the Internet is this, what you're doing right now. 0.90

00:11:16.200 Which is, there are some people who can help you think about stuff better, because they spend time in that field. 0.97

00:11:25.840 I believe I'm one of those people.

00:11:27.760 That I can help you figure out what's true and what's not.

00:11:32.940 Now, I think somebody like Mike Cernovich is one of those people.

00:11:36.260 Meaning that he's more clever than you are at figuring out what's true and what's not.

00:11:41.460 So if you want to figure out how to avoid all the dumbest people on the Internet, find some people who have spent some time and developed some skill to know what's true.

00:11:55.180 It doesn't mean they'll always be right. 0.94

00:11:58.140 I mean, you've certainly seen me be wrong enough.

00:12:01.540 But, yeah, I just use Cernovich as my universal example for just about everything.

00:12:06.320 Ben Shapiro, another excellent example.

00:12:09.620 Let me give Ben Shapiro a compliment, by the way.

00:12:12.520 I've been meaning to do this.

00:12:14.580 But, you know, when you're watching the Queen go 70 years without making an error, which really is remarkable.

00:12:22.580 Quite remarkable.

00:12:23.240 Then you start asking yourself if there's, like, anybody else.

00:12:29.160 You know, he's gone a long time without making an error.

00:12:33.180 And so Ben Shapiro says a lot of stuff, and I don't think he's wrong very often, is he?

00:12:41.680 He probably has the highest ratio of saying stuff in public without being wrong of just about anybody you can imagine.

00:12:50.020 So, I mean, that's worth a lot, isn't it?

00:12:54.440 And also, I don't think that Ben Shapiro has fallen for any conspiracy theories.

00:13:02.340 I can't think of one.

00:13:04.120 Can you?

00:13:06.380 Has he actually managed to surf the highest level of right-leaning politics without buying into any conspiracy theories?

00:13:16.760 Because I don't think so.

00:13:18.220 I don't think he's bought into one that I'm aware of.

00:13:22.540 Right?

00:13:23.740 No, he didn't.

00:13:24.520 I don't think he bought into the fine people hoax.

00:13:27.340 I don't think that happened.

00:13:29.780 All right.

00:13:33.740 He's wrong about BlackRock acquiring homes.

00:13:36.520 Wrong about the facts or wrong about the importance of it.

00:13:38.980 So I don't know that issue.

00:13:41.080 Anyway, you know, the other thing, well, I'm going to switch paths here for a minute.

00:13:51.400 Ken Olin, you might know him as an actor.

00:13:55.080 He retweeted a woman who was saying that she didn't understand, this is a little viral video,

00:14:01.260 of a woman explaining that if Donald Trump is so awesome and he is not a criminal,

00:14:08.280 why can't he get the top lawyers to defend him?

00:14:12.180 What do you think of that point?

00:14:14.080 So this is a Democrat, obviously, saying if Donald Trump is so good, just like you think,

00:14:20.260 why can't he get the best lawyers to defend him, she says.

00:14:23.660 What do you think of that?

00:14:25.020 Why do you think that Trump can't get the best lawyers according to one person?

00:14:31.260 Well, number one, have you heard of Alan Dershowitz?

00:14:40.720 Like Alan Dershowitz, the number one guy you'd probably want on your side if you had a legal problem.

00:14:46.740 So he does have the best lawyer in the world, you know, or at least certainly in the top 0.001%.

00:14:54.320 So there's that.

00:14:56.680 But that's just one.

00:14:58.200 And Dershowitz is a special case.

00:14:59.840 Dershowitz is braver than other people.

00:15:03.780 That's just a fact.

00:15:05.820 He is just publicly braver than other lawyers.

00:15:10.240 So think about the, yeah, Harmeet doing a great job, we hear.

00:15:17.520 Harmeet, Dylan.

00:15:19.340 Yeah, but, so first of all, I would question the statement that he's not getting good representation.

00:15:25.860 That does not seem to be the case.

00:15:28.700 I think it's more to the point that Trump embraces people who embrace him.

00:15:34.860 I think that basically explains everything about it.

00:15:37.860 But it's not like he doesn't have also high-quality attorneys, right?

00:15:42.240 But here's what the Democrats don't quite understand.

00:15:47.720 The reason Trump can't get good help is Democrats.

00:15:52.520 I'm not wrong, right?

00:15:56.000 The reason nobody wants to work with Trump is because of what Democrats say about Trump, which is, most of it's untrue.

00:16:04.140 So, isn't the problem not Trump?

00:16:07.500 The problem is that Democrats are broken.

00:16:10.700 Because if they said accurate, fair things about Trump, then people would say, oh, I totally disagree with maybe Trump's opinion on whatever.

00:16:20.200 But I wouldn't have any problem representing him.

00:16:23.540 As long as everybody's being reasonable, he's just a reasonable person in a reasonable world.

00:16:29.020 But when they paid him out to be the next Hitler, who the hell is going to represent that? 0.82

00:16:35.840 It doesn't even matter what the lawyer believes, if they believe that other people will destroy their lives for being associated.

00:16:43.480 But I guess the amazing part here is that the person who made the video saying, why don't people want to work with or represent Trump?

00:16:53.380 And the person who tweeted it actually don't understand that they're the problem.

00:17:00.380 Isn't that weird?

00:17:01.780 They actually don't understand that they are the problem.

00:17:04.700 And the actual tweet that I'm talking about is the problem.

00:17:08.700 That's the reason that they don't work with him.

00:17:10.880 It's you.

00:17:11.840 Not you, but you that I'm talking about.

00:17:14.580 So that the I guess it's just a stunning lack of awareness, a stunning lack of awareness.

00:17:23.640 And it's so common.

00:17:28.240 So the news got a little boring recently.

00:17:31.140 That's why we have a double whiteboard.

00:17:32.560 I'll give you some updates here in a minute.

00:17:33.980 A weird thing happened with the Dilbert comic online.

00:17:39.340 It got a whole bunch of the text in the first panel got deleted before it got published.

00:17:46.180 I don't know why.

00:17:47.900 And it's not even, it doesn't seem censored.

00:17:50.920 Because the part that got deleted doesn't have any special importance.

00:17:54.900 So I think it happened in the production of it somehow.

00:17:57.500 Somebody said the newspapers have a correct version, but the online is wrong.

00:18:02.040 I don't know what's up with that.

00:18:03.080 But, if you like to collect things, maybe you'll make an NFT out of it.

00:18:10.420 There was a CNN article talking about Ted Cruz's complicated relationship with Trump.

00:18:18.460 And let me tell you, this was an amazing article.

00:18:22.180 All right.

00:18:22.760 Just hold this in your head at the same time.

00:18:25.300 It was on CNN.

00:18:27.220 So CNN is the source.

00:18:29.480 It was their opinion.

00:18:30.560 And it was about Trump and Ted Cruz.

00:18:34.040 Here's the amazing part.

00:18:36.320 It was objective.

00:18:39.020 It was objective.

00:18:40.700 Now, it wasn't all positive.

00:18:42.880 I'm not saying that.

00:18:44.600 You know, it said, it talked about Trump insulting Cruz's wife and all that. 0.99

00:18:49.860 But nothing in the article was stupid. 0.99

00:18:54.840 They just reported the news. 1.00

00:18:58.020 And I kept reading the article waiting for the part where it would say, but of course, you know, Trump is a fascist monster or something like that. 0.98

00:19:06.000 And it wasn't there. 0.95

00:19:06.880 It was actually a story about two Republicans that actually just talked about the interesting news around them.

00:19:14.920 And that was it. 0.50

00:19:16.460 And I read the whole article looking for the CNN spin where, you know, he's the devil.

00:19:23.240 It wasn't there.

00:19:24.420 It was just an article about two Republicans.

00:19:26.160 So if you don't think that the new head of CNN is serious about pivoting to the middle, I mean, he's serious.

00:19:36.620 It's happening.

00:19:40.940 Well, the news on Ukraine seems to be all pointing in one direction suddenly.

00:19:48.620 Doesn't mean it's true.

00:19:50.800 Doesn't mean it's true.

00:19:51.960 Because we're still in the fog of war.

00:19:54.520 We don't really know what's happening in Ukraine and Russia.

00:19:57.060 But it is notable that even the Russians are not disagreeing with the coverage at the moment.

00:20:04.040 And the coverage is saying that the Ukrainians are making major advances against the positions of the Russians.

00:20:10.500 So they've gone 30 miles across the previous line.

00:20:14.640 They've encircled.

00:20:15.840 Well, let me go to the whiteboard and give you an update.

00:20:21.960 I know it can be confusing because a lot of people are, you know, not familiar with the area.

00:20:27.800 So this map will explain the entire situation.

00:20:32.920 So what you've got is you've got the Ukrainian forces that are surrounding the Blakapa, Karba region.

00:20:40.120 But they're also making inroads in the Kalakapa and the Akpa-Kizamara.

00:20:46.340 The Satsaraki is holding tight.

00:20:49.360 But there are a lot of assets being lost in the Kupansk-Lakbaki and Ludakski and Papkin.

00:20:54.280 So, but this area just surrounding the Lakapa is sustaining heavy fire.

00:21:02.820 But we do hear that there is a retreat in the Lakdaklupkaka and the Golgungi and Papka.

00:21:09.820 But the Key and Peele are making inroads as well.

00:21:14.740 So, I think that pretty much summed it up.

00:21:23.320 Now, there is one thing that is conspicuously missing in this story.

00:21:29.340 Did you see anything missing?

00:21:32.100 Yes.

00:21:34.600 Airplanes.

00:21:36.380 There don't appear to be any airplanes in the story.

00:21:40.520 What the hell is going on?

00:21:42.980 Don't you expect some jets?

00:21:44.740 It's a war.

00:21:47.880 I don't know what's going on.

00:21:50.320 So, there's something very unexplained.

00:21:53.920 And the unexplained part is where's the Russian Air Force?

00:21:59.320 Apparently, it's not there.

00:22:01.380 The Russian Air Force, it just doesn't seem to be part of the war.

00:22:05.340 Why?

00:22:07.120 Why?

00:22:07.600 Now, one theory is that the Ukrainians took delivery of some advanced anti-aircraft assets

00:22:16.660 from NATO countries.

00:22:19.120 That could be the whole, that might be the whole explanation.

00:22:24.020 It could be that the new anti-aircraft is so good that Russia would just be throwing away jets.

00:22:30.680 In other words, they wouldn't gain enough by putting a jet up there versus the odds of losing it.

00:22:36.380 Now, it may also be true that the Ukrainians had great success destroying weapons depots and resupply lines,

00:22:46.200 because that's the reporting.

00:22:47.280 Don't know if anything's true.

00:22:49.060 Remember, everything out of this region is suspect and fog of war.

00:22:53.280 But even the Russians are not claiming they're holding tight.

00:22:58.040 So, the reporting is Russians are retreating, they're abandoning the equipment,

00:23:03.940 the Ukrainians are basically taking over cities without a fight, 0.99

00:23:08.560 and it's starting to look like the entire Russian army is collapsing.

00:23:16.100 Did you see that coming?

00:23:17.420 Now, could be a trick, could be a trick.

00:23:23.280 I mean, maybe Russia is like baiting in the, you know, 0.84

00:23:26.680 trying to get the Ukrainian military in there.

00:23:29.500 But one report said that's what the Ukrainians did to the Russian army.

00:23:35.360 The Ukrainians allegedly, again, who knows what to believe, 1.00

00:23:39.080 but allegedly they actually baited the best Russian forces into a kill box

00:23:44.520 and then started degrading them.

00:23:47.860 And once they had degraded the best Russian forces, 0.84

00:23:51.100 then they mounted the invasion and there was nothing to stop them.

00:23:55.080 That's what it looks like.

00:23:56.780 That doesn't mean that's true.

00:23:58.480 Remember, everything about this is highly suspect.

00:24:02.320 But here's the question I wonder about.

00:24:05.280 You know that Ukraine was smart enough and skilled enough,

00:24:09.360 especially Zelensky,

00:24:11.140 to know that persuasion is maybe the most important part of the war.

00:24:16.340 So Zelensky's persuasion of the West,

00:24:19.880 how would you rank it?

00:24:21.940 Was Zelensky's persuasion skill of his allies,

00:24:27.580 give me a grade, what do you think it was?

00:24:30.760 I see an A+.

00:24:31.880 Zelensky's persuasion skill, I see a C.

00:24:35.680 A+, A solid, 9 out of 10, B minus.

00:24:41.520 I think he's closer to an A or an A+.

00:24:44.060 Now let me ask you this.

00:24:47.060 Do you think there's someone who's capable of that level of persuasion?

00:24:51.360 And by the way, this would be the very best in the world.

00:24:53.520 In my opinion, what Zelensky has done

00:24:57.900 is Winston Churchill-level persuasion, right?

00:25:03.720 Now you can say what you want to say about him

00:25:05.940 if you don't like him for other reasons.

00:25:07.820 But persuasion-wise, he has the goods.

00:25:11.940 Now here's my question.

00:25:13.840 Do you think that his persuasion only works that powerfully

00:25:17.180 with his own allies?

00:25:18.580 Because this might be the variable that everybody's missing.

00:25:24.840 Ukraine has quite intentionally been running

00:25:27.760 a discouragement campaign against the Russian soldiers,

00:25:33.260 trying to simply discourage them

00:25:35.640 from being interested in fighting.

00:25:39.400 I think they may have succeeded.

00:25:42.600 They may have succeeded.

00:25:44.480 Because it's hard for me to understand

00:25:46.280 why Russia's not putting up a better fight.

00:25:51.860 That's sort of a...

00:25:53.160 Unless it's a trap,

00:25:55.320 and that would be a stretch.

00:25:57.820 Unless it's a trap,

00:25:59.080 it looks like their will to fight has been broken.

00:26:02.860 That's what it looks like.

00:26:04.300 Now again, pure speculation.

00:26:06.460 We're way too far away

00:26:07.900 and under-informed to know what's happening.

00:26:10.220 But that's what it looks like.

00:26:11.720 It looks like he broke their will.

00:26:15.040 What do you think?

00:26:16.900 Is that a hypothesis?

00:26:18.660 Does it at least match the facts that we can discern?

00:26:24.040 It looks like it, doesn't it?

00:26:26.840 Now, the bigger story, of course,

00:26:28.480 is the modern weapons

00:26:29.560 and the fighting skill

00:26:32.520 and will of the Ukrainian military,

00:26:35.360 which apparently is freaking awesome,

00:26:37.680 as far as we can tell.

00:26:39.240 So, I think the big story

00:26:43.340 is going to be the persuasion game.

00:26:46.560 Remember the Ukrainians 0.98

00:26:47.720 were taking pictures

00:26:48.620 of the captured Russian soldiers

00:26:50.300 and they would find their social media

00:26:53.200 and they would send messages

00:26:54.660 back to their parents and stuff.

00:26:57.020 They knew that it would take a while

00:26:58.700 for that persuasion to work

00:27:00.220 because they were doing it retail,

00:27:02.560 like one person at a time.

00:27:04.760 Here's a picture to your mother.

00:27:06.840 Here's a note to your mom.

00:27:09.560 Maybe it worked.

00:27:12.080 We'll see.

00:27:12.780 Amazingly, the Russian police

00:27:17.140 arrested five government officials.

00:27:20.220 They weren't very high level,

00:27:21.360 but these five officials

00:27:24.160 said that Putin should be charged

00:27:26.660 with treason

00:27:27.340 for his launching of the war in Ukraine.

00:27:30.720 Now, those five people

00:27:33.160 are probably going to be dead 0.94

00:27:34.600 pretty soon,

00:27:35.700 but there were five people

00:27:37.360 who had successful lives in Russia

00:27:39.740 who just gave their lives

00:27:41.980 to protest Putin.

00:27:45.640 They just gave their lives

00:27:46.980 and they knew it.

00:27:48.800 They knew it when they did it.

00:27:51.460 So, something's happening.

00:27:53.860 Something's happening over there.

00:27:58.220 All right.

00:28:00.720 Yesterday, there was some news

00:28:03.700 that Bannon said

00:28:04.880 that there were 35 raids

00:28:08.020 against Trump supporters.

00:28:09.740 Did you see that news yesterday?

00:28:11.920 And I tweeted 1.00

00:28:12.880 that that looked like bullshit to me. 0.98

00:28:15.700 That there's probably 0.98

00:28:16.640 something happening,

00:28:18.220 but it's not going to match

00:28:19.340 that description.

00:28:21.080 And then we woke up this morning

00:28:22.420 and it's up to 50 people,

00:28:26.580 but they were not raided per se.

00:28:29.500 They were subpoenaed.

00:28:31.400 So, it's more of a paperwork thing.

00:28:33.380 So, it's not like the FBI

00:28:34.820 went into 35 homes.

00:28:36.960 There were 35 or 50 people

00:28:39.920 who got some legal paperwork

00:28:42.600 saying, hey, we'd like to

00:28:44.400 see your documents.

00:28:46.700 Now, it's still bad.

00:28:49.340 Unless, I'm not excusing it.

00:28:51.860 It just did not involve

00:28:53.700 home invasions, apparently.

00:28:56.380 Which is what I imagined.

00:28:57.820 When I first saw it,

00:28:58.640 I said, hmm, that's too on the nose.

00:29:01.280 35 raids?

00:29:02.480 I'm not believing it.

00:29:04.260 How many of you saw the news

00:29:06.940 that there were 35 raids,

00:29:08.980 which would suggest

00:29:10.700 actually going into homes?

00:29:12.160 How many thought

00:29:12.860 that that actually happened

00:29:13.780 when you saw that Bannon said it happened?

00:29:16.500 How many of you believed

00:29:17.740 it was true when you read it?

00:29:19.400 Because you should have said to yourself,

00:29:25.560 it's too on the nose.

00:29:28.400 I mean, I teach you that

00:29:30.060 all the time, right?

00:29:32.420 I couldn't say anything more often

00:29:34.400 than I say that.

00:29:35.760 That was so on the nose

00:29:37.100 that you should have seen

00:29:38.660 that one immediately.

00:29:39.840 Now, it doesn't mean

00:29:40.500 nothing happened,

00:29:41.440 just that the way it was described

00:29:43.140 has a little too on the nose.

00:29:44.960 All right, so it looks like

00:29:47.220 it didn't happen.

00:29:51.100 Let's talk about

00:29:52.260 the imaginary Civil War.

00:29:54.880 So Eric Swalwell tweeted this.

00:29:57.340 He said, no matter what,

00:29:59.400 do not lose sight of the fact

00:30:00.820 that there are more of us

00:30:02.080 than there are of them.

00:30:04.300 Hashtag strength in numbers.

00:30:06.240 Now, I assume he means

00:30:07.320 the more of us,

00:30:08.520 meaning good people like Democrats

00:30:10.600 as opposed to bad people

00:30:12.520 like mega extremists.

00:30:14.960 Okay, so let me give you an update

00:30:20.140 on the imaginary Civil War.

00:30:27.000 So the two sides,

00:30:28.620 it looks like the two sides

00:30:29.660 have been formed.

00:30:32.640 On one side,

00:30:33.680 we have the people

00:30:35.080 who want to vote

00:30:36.140 but can't get ID.

00:30:38.940 There are quite a few of them,

00:30:40.340 so this is a pretty big force.

00:30:42.060 Then there are the people

00:30:42.920 on the left

00:30:43.480 who want to be uniters

00:30:44.780 and not dividers.

00:30:46.620 So they're part

00:30:47.680 of the imaginary army.

00:30:50.200 And then, very importantly,

00:30:51.960 the army of the dead.

00:30:54.760 Voters.

00:30:55.480 Dead voters.

00:30:56.820 So at the army

00:30:57.520 of the dead voters,

00:30:58.880 the people who want to vote

00:31:00.020 but can't get ID

00:31:00.880 and the people on the left

00:31:02.020 who want to unite,

00:31:03.380 that's one side

00:31:04.460 of the imaginary war.

00:31:06.780 But on the other side,

00:31:08.700 they've got some stiff competition.

00:31:11.160 It's going to be a tough war

00:31:12.140 because here you have

00:31:13.460 the mega fascists.

00:31:15.020 Those are the people

00:31:15.820 who believe in the Constitution

00:31:17.580 but yet somehow

00:31:20.360 are also fascists.

00:31:23.580 I don't know.

00:31:24.360 Some would say

00:31:25.180 that that can't exist.

00:31:27.100 It's an imaginary category

00:31:28.640 because how could you be

00:31:30.960 a mega lover

00:31:32.320 of a Constitution

00:31:33.260 and a fascist?

00:31:35.820 Doesn't make sense

00:31:36.780 in your mind

00:31:37.360 but for the imaginary

00:31:39.720 civil war,

00:31:40.600 it's good enough.

00:31:42.560 So you've got those.

00:31:43.520 Then you've got the people

00:31:44.260 on January 6th

00:31:45.300 who believed

00:31:46.220 that they would actually

00:31:47.100 take over the country

00:31:48.140 without using weapons.

00:31:50.020 So you've got those.

00:31:52.660 But if I were going

00:31:54.460 to handicap this war

00:31:55.620 and figure out

00:31:57.600 who's going to win,

00:31:59.040 it looks like

00:32:00.220 the imaginary people

00:32:01.320 on the right

00:32:01.820 have an advantage

00:32:02.540 because they also

00:32:03.440 have the nuclear plans

00:32:05.020 that they captured

00:32:06.440 from the Mar-a-Lago boxes.

00:32:09.440 So if you've got

00:32:10.680 imaginary nuclear plans

00:32:12.640 and the imaginary

00:32:14.020 insurrectionists have that

00:32:15.560 and they bind together

00:32:16.560 with the non-existent

00:32:18.120 mega fascists,

00:32:18.960 you have an amazing

00:32:20.220 fighting force

00:32:21.180 that I think

00:32:22.460 I think will be

00:32:24.000 even stronger

00:32:24.760 than the people

00:32:26.360 who want to vote

00:32:27.420 but can't get ID,

00:32:28.460 the Uniters on the left

00:32:29.600 and the Army of the Dead

00:32:30.980 voters.

00:32:35.440 And scene.

00:32:40.680 All right.

00:32:43.840 In other news,

00:32:46.320 Elon Musk continues

00:32:47.680 to solve problems

00:32:49.060 that other people

00:32:49.800 just talk about.

00:32:52.140 So apparently

00:32:53.020 he's proposing

00:32:53.920 building a major

00:32:56.100 lithium refinery facility

00:32:58.660 in the Gulf of Texas.

00:33:00.680 In other words,

00:33:01.620 trying to decouple

00:33:03.900 from China

00:33:04.500 and make sure

00:33:06.160 that we can make batteries

00:33:07.040 with domestic stuff.

00:33:10.580 So that's good.

00:33:12.420 Good for him.

00:33:13.300 All right.

00:33:15.520 And

00:33:15.840 correct me

00:33:18.820 if I'm wrong,

00:33:20.340 but it's only

00:33:21.400 half an hour

00:33:22.080 into our live stream

00:33:23.500 and it's already

00:33:24.900 the best thing

00:33:25.520 you've ever seen

00:33:26.100 in your life.

00:33:27.560 I know.

00:33:28.400 How do I do it?

00:33:29.780 It's amazing.

00:33:31.760 All right.

00:33:34.720 I would like

00:33:35.460 to remind you

00:33:36.480 of some of the

00:33:39.120 weirdest

00:33:39.620 predictions

00:33:41.560 that I've made.

00:33:46.940 Which

00:33:47.380 I went to look at

00:33:49.420 and are not

00:33:50.560 even here.

00:33:52.660 How about here?

00:33:54.140 There we go.

00:33:56.140 So here

00:33:56.520 are some predictions

00:33:57.560 I made

00:33:58.180 which is not to say

00:34:00.280 all my predictions

00:34:00.900 were right.

00:34:02.860 They were not all right.

00:34:04.160 But here are

00:34:04.520 the weirdest ones.

00:34:07.000 You ready for this?

00:34:07.820 The weirdest

00:34:08.340 predictions I made

00:34:09.340 that turned out

00:34:09.840 to be right.

00:34:10.300 The famous one

00:34:12.540 of course

00:34:12.860 I predicted

00:34:13.360 that Trump

00:34:13.820 would win

00:34:14.360 in 2016.

00:34:16.700 But I also

00:34:17.500 predicted

00:34:17.860 remember the

00:34:18.720 Las Vegas shooter

00:34:19.680 and

00:34:21.720 ISIS claimed

00:34:23.160 credit

00:34:23.620 for that?

00:34:25.760 And after

00:34:26.420 ISIS claimed

00:34:27.360 credit

00:34:27.820 I said

00:34:29.080 it's not ISIS.

00:34:30.680 Do you remember

00:34:31.120 that?

00:34:32.840 Now how often

00:34:33.900 does ISIS claim

00:34:34.840 credit for something

00:34:35.660 and it's not

00:34:36.180 really ISIS?

00:34:37.060 It's pretty rare.

00:34:37.740 So even

00:34:39.260 after ISIS

00:34:40.220 claimed credit

00:34:40.920 I said

00:34:41.220 it's not ISIS.

00:34:42.300 And of course

00:34:42.760 it wasn't

00:34:43.280 ISIS.

00:34:45.040 When Fauci

00:34:45.920 first said

00:34:46.580 that masks

00:34:47.340 wouldn't make

00:34:48.520 any difference

00:34:49.260 now I'm not

00:34:50.100 going to argue

00:34:50.460 about whether

00:34:50.920 masks work

00:34:51.760 that's not

00:34:52.320 the topic.

00:34:53.900 The question

00:34:54.460 is just

00:34:54.820 lying.

00:34:56.380 I was the

00:34:57.100 only person

00:34:57.580 in the country

00:34:58.120 I believe

00:34:58.680 who said

00:34:59.580 he's lying

00:35:00.260 he's obviously

00:35:01.380 lying.

00:35:03.100 And then he

00:35:03.720 admitted later

00:35:04.240 he was lying

00:35:04.800 to protect

00:35:06.220 the supply

00:35:06.740 of masks.

00:35:08.140 I don't think

00:35:08.580 anybody else

00:35:09.120 in the country

00:35:09.580 thought he

00:35:09.960 was lying

00:35:10.400 or at least

00:35:11.500 said it.

00:35:12.400 I believe

00:35:12.840 I'm the only

00:35:13.520 person in the

00:35:14.160 country who

00:35:14.840 said it

00:35:15.260 immediately.

00:35:15.980 That's a lie.

00:35:16.980 He's obviously

00:35:17.560 lying.

00:35:20.080 What about

00:35:20.800 that secret

00:35:21.380 sonic weapon

00:35:22.240 that was

00:35:22.660 injuring the

00:35:23.380 people in

00:35:24.260 the embassies?

00:35:25.700 I said

00:35:26.600 as soon as

00:35:27.060 that story

00:35:27.500 broke

00:35:27.880 you will

00:35:28.720 never find

00:35:29.420 a secret

00:35:29.920 sonic weapon.

00:35:31.220 You will

00:35:31.560 never find

00:35:32.220 a secret

00:35:32.760 sonic weapon.

00:35:34.800 So far

00:35:36.040 no they

00:35:37.560 didn't find

00:35:38.060 any secret

00:35:38.620 sonic weapon.

00:35:39.860 No they

00:35:40.280 didn't.

00:35:42.760 I also

00:35:43.520 said that

00:35:43.880 Ukraine would 0.96

00:35:44.500 be too

00:35:44.860 hard for

00:35:45.300 Russia to

00:35:45.760 conquer

00:35:46.080 because of

00:35:46.560 modern weaponry.

00:35:49.240 Literally

00:35:49.760 the only

00:35:50.260 person who

00:35:50.760 got that

00:35:51.140 right.

00:35:51.980 Apparently

00:35:52.360 I'm the

00:35:54.020 only person

00:35:54.620 in the

00:35:54.840 world who

00:35:55.180 got that

00:35:55.560 military

00:35:56.240 prediction

00:35:57.080 right.

00:35:59.060 My

00:35:59.580 weirdest

00:35:59.900 one that

00:36:00.380 I got

00:36:00.620 wrong

00:36:01.060 was that

00:36:01.840 Kamala

00:36:02.200 would be

00:36:02.500 the toughest

00:36:02.980 competition

00:36:03.660 for Trump

00:36:04.260 in the

00:36:05.040 past

00:36:05.320 election.

00:36:06.900 And here's

00:36:08.240 the weird

00:36:08.540 part.

00:36:08.940 Even after

00:36:09.580 she dropped

00:36:10.120 out of the

00:36:10.520 primaries

00:36:11.100 I kept

00:36:12.620 my prediction

00:36:13.320 that she

00:36:13.840 would be

00:36:14.700 his biggest

00:36:15.280 competition.

00:36:17.120 And she

00:36:17.800 ended up

00:36:18.200 weirdly being

00:36:18.800 president for

00:36:19.420 two hours

00:36:20.000 while Biden

00:36:20.600 was under

00:36:22.320 anesthetic or

00:36:23.240 something.

00:36:24.180 Now that

00:36:24.900 prediction was

00:36:25.520 100% wrong

00:36:26.600 but it's the

00:36:27.740 weirdest wrong

00:36:28.560 prediction of

00:36:29.180 all time.

00:36:29.880 You couldn't

00:36:30.420 be more right

00:36:31.700 while being

00:36:32.100 completely wrong.

00:36:32.840 And then of

00:36:33.920 course my

00:36:34.280 prediction that

00:36:34.820 Republicans

00:36:35.300 would be 0.85

00:36:35.800 hunted if

00:36:37.360 Biden got

00:36:38.760 elected.

00:36:40.560 Now some

00:36:41.300 say, but 1.00

00:36:42.300 Scott, you

00:36:43.060 also said

00:36:43.760 that if

00:36:44.880 Biden got

00:36:45.320 elected there

00:36:45.800 would be a

00:36:46.100 good chance

00:36:46.740 you'd be 0.98

00:36:47.040 dead in 1.00

00:36:47.460 the year.

00:36:50.520 You don't

00:36:51.180 know if that

00:36:51.560 was true or

00:36:52.320 false.

00:36:54.560 Because if

00:36:55.400 you make a

00:36:55.840 prediction based

00:36:56.460 on the odds

00:36:57.240 and it

00:36:59.120 doesn't happen,

00:37:00.060 it doesn't

00:37:00.420 mean you

00:37:00.680 were wrong.

00:37:01.220 because you

00:37:03.020 said the

00:37:03.340 odds.

00:37:04.140 If I say

00:37:04.660 there's a

00:37:05.040 three to

00:37:05.420 one chance

00:37:05.920 of something

00:37:06.320 happening and

00:37:06.940 it doesn't

00:37:07.340 happen, I'm

00:37:08.600 not wrong.

00:37:10.940 It just

00:37:11.580 means I

00:37:11.960 estimated the

00:37:12.460 odds.

00:37:12.760 It doesn't

00:37:13.000 mean I

00:37:13.300 predicted.

00:37:19.980 Oh, that

00:37:21.080 people do

00:37:21.940 have, no,

00:37:23.140 there are

00:37:23.680 definitely

00:37:23.980 people who

00:37:24.580 have actual

00:37:26.780 physical medical

00:37:27.780 problems who

00:37:29.080 are part of

00:37:29.580 the embassy

00:37:30.040 thing.

00:37:30.960 But the

00:37:31.680 thing that

00:37:32.020 makes it a

00:37:32.480 mass hysteria

00:37:33.280 probably is

00:37:34.820 that some

00:37:35.520 number of

00:37:35.900 people have

00:37:36.300 problems that

00:37:37.280 you would

00:37:37.520 find if you

00:37:38.080 did an

00:37:38.400 MRI.

00:37:39.240 If you

00:37:39.560 just took

00:37:40.000 100 people

00:37:40.640 and did

00:37:41.620 an MRI,

00:37:43.320 you'd find

00:37:43.940 out, I

00:37:44.520 don't know,

00:37:45.300 10 of them

00:37:45.900 had some

00:37:46.480 health problem

00:37:47.080 you didn't

00:37:47.680 know about.

00:37:48.740 And some

00:37:49.200 of that would

00:37:49.500 be in their

00:37:49.840 brains.

00:37:51.060 So I think

00:37:51.680 some of it

00:37:52.180 is just if

00:37:53.000 you're looking

00:37:53.420 for it, you're

00:37:53.980 going to find

00:37:54.400 it.

00:37:55.900 So I think

00:37:56.420 it's that.

00:37:58.240 Anyway, those

00:37:58.960 are some

00:37:59.280 pretty weird

00:37:59.820 predictions.

00:38:00.440 I think I

00:38:00.740 had some

00:38:01.000 other ones

00:38:01.400 that are

00:38:01.600 equally weird.

00:38:09.040 Oh, somebody

00:38:09.840 is speculating

00:38:10.620 that Kamala

00:38:11.420 Harris may

00:38:12.200 have fried

00:38:12.640 her brain 0.61

00:38:13.160 with drugs.

00:38:15.540 You know,

00:38:16.200 that's not a

00:38:16.700 bad hypothesis.

00:38:19.320 I was going

00:38:19.680 to reject that

00:38:20.340 right out of

00:38:20.920 hand, but

00:38:22.420 when I watch

00:38:23.280 Kamala Harris

00:38:24.100 talking as

00:38:25.440 vice president,

00:38:26.380 I can't

00:38:27.120 understand how

00:38:27.800 she ever won

00:38:28.420 an election.

00:38:30.380 It's like

00:38:31.080 something changed

00:38:32.060 because when I

00:38:32.920 originally predicted

00:38:33.840 she'd be the

00:38:34.460 hardest to beat

00:38:35.720 it's because I'd

00:38:36.500 watched her speak

00:38:37.360 in public, and

00:38:38.740 she seemed very

00:38:39.420 good speaking in

00:38:40.620 public, but

00:38:41.420 she's clearly

00:38:41.980 not.

00:38:43.500 So something,

00:38:45.360 I'm not going

00:38:46.360 to speculate that

00:38:47.360 that's what

00:38:48.160 happened, but

00:38:49.140 it looks like,

00:38:52.000 well, there's a

00:38:53.120 mystery here,

00:38:53.580 I'll just say.

00:38:54.100 That's funny.

00:39:01.120 She lost her

00:39:02.080 writers?

00:39:02.720 I don't know.

00:39:04.540 Because when she

00:39:05.300 was doing the

00:39:06.020 interrogating people

00:39:07.920 in Congress, she

00:39:09.960 didn't have writers

00:39:10.740 for that, and she

00:39:11.460 did great.

00:39:15.880 Yeah, I don't

00:39:16.540 know.

00:39:17.640 I don't know how

00:39:18.680 she passed the

00:39:19.260 bar.

00:39:19.480 She does not

00:39:20.760 look like she

00:39:21.340 would be capable

00:39:22.060 of high-level

00:39:24.300 intellectual anything

00:39:26.240 based on her

00:39:27.500 performance.

00:39:32.820 You think she's

00:39:33.960 overwhelmed and

00:39:34.660 brain-fogged?

00:39:36.600 I don't know.

00:39:37.580 All right.

00:39:47.640 Well, I think

00:39:48.380 that I don't

00:39:49.160 have anything

00:39:49.540 else to talk

00:39:50.100 about.

00:39:50.600 As I warned

00:39:51.260 you, the

00:39:53.000 Democrats would 0.89

00:39:53.780 not want to

00:39:54.360 compete with

00:39:56.280 the Queen's

00:39:57.460 news because

00:39:58.840 they don't

00:40:01.800 want to

00:40:02.020 compete because

00:40:02.560 they can't

00:40:03.000 get any

00:40:03.240 attention.

00:40:04.100 So any

00:40:04.480 dirty tricks

00:40:05.160 and fake

00:40:05.620 news is

00:40:06.280 probably going

00:40:07.060 to have to

00:40:07.460 wait until

00:40:08.080 the Queen's

00:40:08.760 stuff is

00:40:09.140 done.

00:40:10.620 Adam T.

00:40:11.240 said this

00:40:11.580 too.

00:40:18.520 All right.

00:40:22.680 That's all

00:40:23.240 for me.

00:40:24.400 I'm going

00:40:24.980 to say

00:40:26.320 goodbye to

00:40:26.900 YouTube, and

00:40:27.840 I'll talk to

00:40:28.320 the locals

00:40:29.060 people a

00:40:29.500 little bit

00:40:29.720 more.

00:40:30.480 Bye for

00:40:30.820 now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - September 10, 2022

Episode 1862 Scott Adams： Imaginary Civil War Updates, And What About Those Hunted Republicans？

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