Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1891 Scott Adams： Let's Talk About Kanye Causing Trouble

00:00:00.000 I'm late, but only less than a minute.

00:00:07.100 And not only am I late, but I'm almost prepared.

00:00:11.880 But, boy, is it going to be good this morning.

00:00:14.960 Oh, my goodness.

00:00:17.920 Not only did I not oversleep, I am well rested.

00:00:25.040 For the last several days, I've been trying this experiment.

00:00:27.800 I don't know, have you ever, I'm going to ask you, have any of you ever tried this?

00:00:33.600 This is something I'd heard about, but I'd never actually tried.

00:00:38.740 For the last three days, I've been running this experiment.

00:00:42.340 It's crazy.

00:00:44.080 And let me tell you what I've done.

00:00:46.100 For three days in a row, I got enough sleep.

00:00:49.840 Have you ever tried that?

00:00:52.200 Have you ever tried just getting enough sleep for several days in a row?

00:00:55.980 Oh, my God.

00:01:00.340 It changes everything.

00:01:02.460 It just changes everything.

00:01:05.440 I didn't think it was possible.

00:01:07.360 Now, the secret, of course, is to go to sleep way earlier than you want to.

00:01:12.780 Turns out that's the whole secret.

00:01:14.780 Just go to bed earlier.

00:01:16.580 Make sure you did your exercise and tired yourself out.

00:01:19.960 But that's not why you're here.

00:01:21.400 You are here for a little thing called Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:01:29.600 The finest thing that's ever happened to anybody, anywhere.

00:01:32.860 And we're going to take that up to another level.

00:01:35.220 A level that nobody's ever seen before.

00:01:38.020 Ever.

00:01:38.460 And all you need is a cup or mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:01:46.100 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like, coffee.

00:01:51.440 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:01:56.620 It's called the simultaneous sip, go.

00:02:05.580 Time to savor, savor, savor.

00:02:09.680 Good.

00:02:12.340 Some of you are sipping without the savoring.

00:02:15.180 And I don't know, that seems unacceptable.

00:02:17.440 Well, Saturday Night Live is going into full-throated mocking of President Biden.

00:02:31.040 Yeah.

00:02:32.320 And I don't know, does this mark any kind of a changing point?

00:02:39.520 I don't think so.

00:02:40.700 But they're making fun of his mental acuity directly by showing clips of him looking doddering.

00:02:47.440 And making fun of him, you know, getting us close to nuclear war.

00:02:52.620 So there's still, it's still a little bit of a, you know, let's say a gentle ribbing.

00:03:00.240 But they, they're definitely saying some negative things about Biden.

00:03:04.520 A little bit.

00:03:05.520 A little bit.

00:03:07.100 Is it the weirdest thing in the world?

00:03:10.460 That Biden has maybe pushed us close to nuclear war.

00:03:14.940 But, I don't really spend much time worrying about it.

00:03:20.840 Do you?

00:03:21.960 How many of you are literally worried about nuclear war?

00:03:26.500 Reaching you.

00:03:27.580 Let's say affecting you somehow.

00:03:30.520 Are any of you actually worried?

00:03:32.640 Because I know some of you are.

00:03:34.920 A little bit.

00:03:36.020 Nah, no.

00:03:37.900 Worried a little.

00:03:38.820 Not me.

00:03:39.340 Yeah.

00:03:40.980 Yeah.

00:03:42.640 See, the trouble is there's no, there's no point to it.

00:03:46.960 And although we imagine that Putin might be unstable, nobody says he's crazy, do they?

00:03:54.040 I haven't heard anybody say he's, you know, just mentally unstable or something.

00:03:58.600 So there isn't, I don't see any scenario where he would launch a nuclear attack.

00:04:04.480 Just don't see it.

00:04:05.780 Because I think he has enough conventional weapons to wipe out, you know, the civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. 0.95

00:04:12.660 If he wants to do bad things, he's, he's got other options that won't definitely kill him.

00:04:17.540 Well, speaking of Saturday Night Live, makes me think of Pete Davidson, which makes me think of Tom Brady and Giselle, you know, Tom Brady and Giselle, whose last name is not terribly pronounceable by me right now.

00:04:37.400 But as bad as a divorce is, what do you think Tom Brady is the most worried about with this divorce?

00:04:48.500 I'm going to put it out there that he would be most worried that his ex, Giselle, would start dating Pete Davidson.

00:04:56.280 I feel like that would be the worst case scenario.

00:04:58.980 It's like, okay, a divorce is terrible, but there is one thing worse than getting divorced.

00:05:09.800 Your ex dating Pete Davidson.

00:05:12.980 Now, yay would tell you, that's no picnic.

00:05:17.140 But, honestly, I worried about it when I got divorced.

00:05:23.620 I'm like, oh my God, I hope Pete Davidson doesn't know I'm getting divorced.

00:05:27.180 You know, I don't think I had to worry about it, but, you know, it runs through your mind.

00:05:31.800 It goes through your mind.

00:05:33.280 That's all.

00:05:33.660 I'm just saying it goes through your mind.

00:05:37.240 Well, do you want to, do you want the biggest mind F you've ever had lately?

00:05:43.140 Let me just blow your mind.

00:05:46.140 Are you ready?

00:05:47.340 Now, I feel bad because I read an opinion, I think it was Lawfare blog, but I may be giving the wrong credit here.

00:05:54.500 I hope I'm not.

00:05:55.200 And there was an argument that the Russian, that pipeline explosion was most likely accidental.

00:06:08.120 What do you think?

00:06:10.100 And I'll tell you the argument in a moment.

00:06:12.460 But what's your first impression to that?

00:06:16.020 It was most likely an accident, right?

00:06:18.320 Now, your first thought is there's no way that you can make, that anybody could make that argument, right?

00:06:25.300 Am I right that you're sure, you're sure I can't repeat an argument that would change your mind, right?

00:06:34.720 And now, and now for the biggest mind F you've had all week, I'm going to change your mind and make you think it was accidental.

00:06:43.800 I read an opinion on this, and I did not think I could be convinced.

00:06:51.700 But here's the argument.

00:06:54.620 Number one, it's hard to keep a pipeline maintenance, well, it's hard to maintain.

00:07:02.120 But it's much easier, I learned, it's much easier to maintain a pipeline that's actively flowing.

00:07:10.960 Because if it's actively flowing, then anything that could get caught in the air is also moving along.

00:07:17.540 You know, basically nothing gets clogged.

00:07:19.600 But, if you have a pipeline that's not being used, but it's also full of gas,

00:07:27.660 then apparently there are a number of things that can go wrong maintenance-wise, and they're catastrophic.

00:07:33.840 Meaning that it gets plugged.

00:07:36.460 So if you wanted to turn it back on again, it just wouldn't work.

00:07:39.860 Because there are some hydrates, right?

00:07:42.820 The hydrates or something get plugged in there.

00:07:46.200 So there's something kind of called the plug.

00:07:47.980 Now, this is a well-known phenomenon.

00:07:52.380 It's a well-known phenomenon.

00:07:54.000 Meaning that if you turned off any pipeline of this type, it would get plugs.

00:08:01.680 Guaranteed.

00:08:02.800 So I don't think there's any chance it wouldn't plug up.

00:08:06.880 All right?

00:08:07.240 So that's the first thing you can fact-check.

00:08:09.280 Is there any chance it wouldn't get plugged up?

00:08:12.180 And I think the answer is no.

00:08:13.960 It would always get plugged up.

00:08:16.080 And fairly soon.

00:08:17.020 Like, it wouldn't be a rare thing.

00:08:19.260 It would be the most common thing that could happen.

00:08:21.980 Now, here's the second part.

00:08:24.560 How do you fix it?

00:08:26.980 If it gets plugged, and you ever want to use it again,

00:08:30.760 and one imagines that Russia would want to have that option,

00:08:33.560 how would you unplug it?

00:08:35.080 And the answer is you have to depressurize it very slowly over weeks, over weeks.

00:08:46.060 And if you want to do it safely, you have to depressurize it from both sides.

00:08:51.520 So that would mean the German side as well as the Russian side.

00:08:54.940 Here's the hypothesis.

00:08:56.940 Here's the hypothesis.

00:08:59.900 The hypothesis is, yeah, you don't want to add heat to it.

00:09:04.060 I think that blew up a pipeline once when they tried that.

00:09:06.780 The hypothesis is that Russia may have wanted to keep the option of the pipeline open and may have tried to depressurize it from one side.

00:09:18.060 And if they tried to depressurize it from one side, they probably were doing both of them around the same time.

00:09:27.260 And they may have just blown them both up.

00:09:32.680 Now, here are the things that you would need to fact check to find out if this is true.

00:09:37.980 Number one, what are the odds that it would blow up in multiple places around the same time?

00:09:43.340 Well, let me reverse the question.

00:09:45.720 The blasts were 17 hours apart.

00:09:50.480 Who would intentionally do a 17-hour gap between their attacks?

00:10:00.640 Because after the first one blew up, people would be looking for the second one.

00:10:05.540 There would be more scrutiny.

00:10:07.660 You wouldn't put a 17-hour delay between two attacks, would you?

00:10:13.360 Like, militarily, that wouldn't make sense.

00:10:16.700 Because the odds of you finding the second one would be higher.

00:10:22.580 That's one argument.

00:10:24.860 But a 17-hour gap would actually explain a maintenance fix.

00:10:31.020 Because they might have been working on them at the same time, and whatever problem they found on one might have been common to all of them.

00:10:38.300 So maybe it was just a difference of when they exploded.

00:10:41.840 But apparently Russian maintenance is famously not thorough.

00:10:48.080 All right, so what do you think of that?

00:10:53.380 What do you think of that hypothesis?

00:10:56.720 Here's what I would do.

00:10:58.480 I'm not sold on the hypothesis.

00:11:01.820 But it would explain a lot, wouldn't it?

00:11:05.200 It would explain a lot.

00:11:06.500 And even the timing of it doesn't really, is not a coincidence.

00:11:11.940 Because if you said to yourself, what are the odds that it would blow up at the same time the war is on?

00:11:19.080 And the answer is very high.

00:11:21.180 Because that's when it was turned off.

00:11:23.500 It was the turning it off that made it likely to blow up.

00:11:27.800 And it was turned off because of the war.

00:11:29.840 So the moment they turned it off, the odds of it blowing up were high.

00:11:37.120 So that's the fast argument.

00:11:39.620 The moment it was turned off, given that they couldn't do the kind of maintenance that they'd want to do on both ends.

00:11:46.180 They could only do one end maintenance, presumably, because maybe Germany wasn't cooperating.

00:11:51.680 But the odds of it blowing up were high.

00:11:54.260 Not low.

00:11:55.680 Interesting, isn't it?

00:11:57.540 And now, what did that do to your brain?

00:12:00.340 Because yesterday, that was quite a head spinner to me.

00:12:03.020 I was like, oh, really?

00:12:05.140 Why did it take me this long to learn that once it's turned off, the odds of it blowing up are high?

00:12:14.820 I just assumed the odds were very low, didn't you?

00:12:18.140 Don't you think that the news should have given you this one fact?

00:12:22.220 And by the way, I'm not sure that what I told you is right.

00:12:26.100 I read it from one source.

00:12:27.260 But don't you want to know this one question?

00:12:32.000 If that kind of pipeline is turned off and not meticulously maintained, what are the odds of it blowing up within, let's say, six months?

00:12:42.960 If the answer is every expert says the odds are pretty high, then I would say that's what happened.

00:12:53.080 Who would agree with me that if we could get an answer to this, and of course our news sources are useless, because isn't this the one and only question?

00:13:02.880 What were the odds of it happening naturally?

00:13:06.620 I've never seen anybody answer that question on the news, have you?

00:13:10.440 Have you ever seen a pipeline maintenance person on the news answer the question, could this have blown up on its own if it were closed down, full of gas, and poorly maintained?

00:13:23.660 Am I wrong that that's the central question, and you've never seen anybody even ask it or try to answer it?

00:13:33.440 You know, I've told you before that I've speculated that the most value that we could do here is to tell our media what they're not telling us that we need to know.

00:13:45.380 Because the stuff they don't tell you totally influences what you think about the story, and that's the biggest question, and nobody's telling us the answer to the biggest question.

00:13:57.540 And by the way, how hard would it be to get that answer?

00:14:01.580 All you have to do is go to any expert who does this kind of work, there must be plenty of Americans who have this expertise, just put them on the air and say, what do you think?

00:14:12.540 Could this have blown up on its own?

00:14:15.380 I feel like the news is so in the bag for the government that maybe the government wants the thought that it was blown up by a military operation.

00:14:27.560 I think they want that out there.

00:14:30.300 Because did you notice that, and here maybe Brennan did something good for the country.

00:14:35.440 I think blaming Russia right away was smart propaganda, even if they thought it was accidental, because maybe they do. 0.76

00:14:45.380 It could be that America knows it was accidental or doesn't know why it blew up.

00:14:50.180 So the first thing you should do is just go out and blame Russia so you can get it out there first.

00:14:56.880 In which case, that would have been a good play, militarily speaking.

00:15:01.980 All right, I've decided that conservatives are really the problem for fixing both fentanyl ODs and education.

00:15:14.060 And here's why.

00:15:15.300 Because in both cases, conservatives insist that the solution is readily available if we would just take it, but it's not even a possible solution in both cases.

00:15:26.300 So conservatives would say, well, if the fentanyl is coming from Mexico, which it is, build that wall, get your border security tight, and problem solved.

00:15:38.100 So as long as conservatives think there is a solution, they don't need to look for any new solution.

00:15:44.220 There is one.

00:15:45.260 Build the wall.

00:15:45.820 Except that the wall we're building has gaps in it this big between the slats, and the total amount of fentanyl it would take to kill everybody in your city would be held in your hand.

00:16:00.160 So all you'd have to do is hand it to somebody on the other side of the wall.

00:16:04.300 And say, Bob, hey, I'll give you $100,000 if you'll take this little wad of fentanyl and give it to my friend across the street.

00:16:13.780 There's nothing you can do to stop the shipment of fentanyl that's completely not on the table.

00:16:22.800 But conservatives have made the argument about the wall.

00:16:27.000 So as long as you're arguing about the wall, as long as you're arguing about the wall, you're not doing anything for fentanyl.

00:16:35.420 But if you can say you are, then politically, I guess you're done, right?

00:16:39.680 Oh, politically, we said we're building a wall, but those Democrats won't let us, so I guess there's nothing you can do about fentanyl except increase some penalties, which, big deal.

00:16:52.000 If they were serious about fentanyl, they would be negotiating with the cartels.

00:16:58.540 We would ask them for an ambassador, and we would sit them down with some immunity so that they can actually talk to us. 0.96

00:17:06.980 And we'd say, you've crossed the line, and we're just going to pave your whole fucking country, or at least the cartel parts, not the civilian parts. 0.88

00:17:19.120 We're going to take out the cartel completely, militarily, with no limitations on our actions, unless you stop fentanyl right now. 0.95

00:17:28.640 We should at least give them the offer, because they are a business, right?

00:17:33.100 We're going to talk about PayPal in a little while.

00:17:35.760 Why did PayPal do what it did?

00:17:37.680 It reversed its policy.

00:17:39.580 We'll talk about that.

00:17:40.700 Because it was a business decision.

00:17:44.540 It was just a business decision.

00:17:46.160 We need to give the cartels a business decision.

00:17:51.140 Here's your decision.

00:17:52.880 We can play cat and mouse with you with, you know, the old crimes that you're doing. 1.00

00:17:57.580 But if you send one more box of fentanyl our way, the entire military of the United States is going to hunt you down and kill every one of you. 0.98

00:18:08.160 If you're a business, what do you do?

00:18:10.040 I would think any business would take that seriously and say, all right, from a profit and loss perspective, we should focus on these other things that don't get the entire military in our pants.

00:18:24.460 If we're not negotiating with the cartels directly, top of government to top of government, meaning the cartel government themselves, we're not serious.

00:18:35.880 How can you be serious if you haven't even had a conversation?

00:18:41.720 I mean, really.

00:18:42.960 Does that look serious to you?

00:18:45.340 The other thing that I would definitely look at is purified alternatives. 0.99

00:18:53.120 And I don't know if anybody's trialing that in a way that isn't stupid. 0.97

00:18:57.440 The way San Francisco did it, I think, was just poorly implemented. 0.98

00:19:01.120 Maybe it wasn't thought out.

00:19:02.220 But I think there's something to separating people and letting them have the drugs that they want safely.

00:19:13.180 How about teaching kids not to use drugs?

00:19:15.660 Well, we know that that doesn't work.

00:19:20.940 And see, that's another perfect example of why the conservatives are the problem.

00:19:26.260 Because conservatives believe that you could teach people not to do drugs and that you could build a wall.

00:19:34.960 I guarantee you those are the two worst approaches.

00:19:38.420 So if you focus on them, you're the problem.

00:19:41.480 You think you might be part of the solution because you think those would be good things to do, but they're not.

00:19:46.060 You need to catch up.

00:19:47.900 You need to up your knowledge about the problem.

00:19:51.140 If you get your knowledge about the problem up to a high enough level, then you can be part of the productive conversations.

00:19:58.400 But if you're just saying wall and teach them not to do drugs, you're not part of anything.

00:20:06.300 Those are not even worth talking about.

00:20:09.320 They don't have any potential at all.

00:20:13.960 Yeah, just saying no didn't work.

00:20:15.620 So that bridge to Crimea that was attacked by the Ukrainians, we assume, the Russians say it's already open.

00:20:32.380 But I don't know how open it is.

00:20:36.280 I mean, I would think that if you reduce the effectiveness of the bridge by, I don't know, 40 percent,

00:20:42.800 that's got to be a pretty big deal, right, if it's the primary transportation thing.

00:20:49.540 But it also tells me that the bridge is reachable.

00:20:54.120 Here's a question I have.

00:20:56.440 Why did the Russians, why were they so confident they could protect that bridge?

00:21:02.800 There's something I don't understand.

00:21:04.440 Are you telling me that the United States doesn't have anything that can fly or float to that bridge from some Ukrainian asset? 0.95

00:21:18.740 There's nothing the United States has that we could sell to Ukraine that would get to that bridge.

00:21:26.800 I feel like there would be, like, ten ways to do it, right?

00:21:35.320 And I guess the thing I don't know is, how can Russia guard that entire perimeter that you need to guard? 0.76

00:21:43.620 I mean, how much...

00:21:45.640 Somebody said it was an RC drone boat.

00:21:48.880 Did anybody hear that?

00:21:50.760 That it was a drone that went under it?

00:21:53.060 And that's my question.

00:21:54.540 How could you possibly check every boat that goes under there?

00:21:58.060 How could you check every car that goes over?

00:22:02.000 And was it a suicide attack or some kind of a drone situation?

00:22:07.620 Yeah.

00:22:12.300 Who is telling you about the war?

00:22:15.240 Do I have to deal with another one of you?

00:22:18.780 Excuse me, I'm going to take a pause for the new people.

00:22:21.120 New people, when we talk about Ukraine, here are the rules. 0.98

00:22:26.420 We all know that all of the information about Ukraine is probably bullshit. 0.99

00:22:32.160 We all know Ukraine is huge liars because it's a war. 1.00

00:22:36.500 We all know Russia are huge liars because they're Russia. 1.00

00:22:41.220 They don't need a reason. 1.00

00:22:43.400 We all know our government is a huge liar. 0.87

00:22:46.940 Are you okay? 0.97

00:22:47.580 Can you deal with that?

00:22:49.640 The fact that we don't know any of this is accurate?

00:22:52.380 So those are the ground rules.

00:22:54.240 If you ask me about the quality of my sources, I will simply remind you that so far, you should 0.64

00:23:00.980 all be fucking listening to me because I'm the only one who's been right about Ukraine 1.00

00:23:05.260 consistently since Russia crossed the border. 0.99

00:23:08.640 I was definitely wrong about them crossing the border.

00:23:10.920 But since then, I've been the most right.

00:23:14.880 I'm literally the only person who said I think Ukraine can win this because of American weaponry.

00:23:21.580 So maybe the other sources should listen to me for a while.

00:23:28.340 But don't be surprised if 100% of any of the information we see is false.

00:23:32.720 That should be your baseline expectation that the knowledge is not, not reliable.

00:23:42.120 All right.

00:23:45.000 So I think that bridge is going to get hit again because I can't imagine that it's not vulnerable.

00:23:50.500 I just can't imagine we can't get to it somehow.

00:23:52.560 Here's the good news.

00:23:59.180 You know, I never would have seen this happening, but it actually happened.

00:24:03.960 Black Lives Matter brought the country together.

00:24:07.600 And we're actually all on the same page with that.

00:24:10.740 Here's what I mean.

00:24:12.740 BLM has two meanings.

00:24:14.740 Some people hear it and say, oh, the organization.

00:24:18.160 I don't like that organization because I think they're corrupt.

00:24:20.920 And the other people hear BLM and they say, oh, it's the idea.

00:24:25.340 Well, I like the idea.

00:24:27.080 So therefore, I like it.

00:24:29.600 I think we've reached the point where there's nobody, black or white, who believes that the organization was valid. 0.92

00:24:39.020 I think all black and all white citizens who are paying attention now understand that the leaders of the organization were corrupt. 0.55

00:24:47.880 Right?

00:24:48.460 So we kind of came together on that.

00:24:50.040 Secondly, so that's the political part.

00:24:53.600 I think we all agree.

00:24:54.620 Politically, it was a corrupt organization.

00:24:57.280 But then let's talk about the philosophy that Black Lives Matter.

00:25:01.600 I've literally never heard anybody disagree with it.

00:25:05.220 Have you?

00:25:06.640 So I think we're all on the same page.

00:25:09.120 Of course, black lives matter.

00:25:10.780 As Yeh says, it's obvious.

00:25:12.880 So weirdly, we ended up on the same page.

00:25:17.480 The organization was corrupt.

00:25:19.560 The idea of it is fine if you take the political part out of it.

00:25:24.620 Let's go fix something.

00:25:26.240 We all came together.

00:25:28.240 I mean, I didn't see it happening.

00:25:30.140 I'm totally surprised.

00:25:31.340 But I can wear the Black Lives Matter shirt completely without any sense of irony or sarcasm or anything because I can completely embrace the idea because now the political part is sort of stripped down.

00:25:45.700 Well, let's talk about Kanye.

00:25:50.220 So do you think he could go 24 hours without causing trouble?

00:25:55.120 Well, apparently not.

00:25:56.820 So yesterday or last night, I guess, he got restricted or some kind of throttling going on on Instagram because he sent a message to Diddy or somebody, and I'm quoting.

00:26:15.200 And I don't know what this means because this is what Yeh said, that he was going to go death con three on Jewish people tomorrow. 0.95

00:26:26.820 But that he can't be anti-Semitic because he's black and black people are Jewish.

00:26:33.960 Now, let me, often I have to interpret things for you because sometimes you'll see things in the news and then you'll wait for me to explain to you, like, why it all makes sense.

00:26:46.900 And maybe you're missing the point and that maybe, you know, it's taken out of context and it's misinterpreted.

00:26:52.780 So let me explain to you, because nobody else will do it for you.

00:26:58.140 Let me explain to you what Yeh means when he says he's going to go death con three on all Jewish people and black people are Jewish so he can't be anti-Semitic.

00:27:07.680 What that means is, I have no idea. 0.93

00:27:12.560 I don't even have a good guess.

00:27:18.920 I hope it doesn't mean what it looks like.

00:27:23.540 Can we agree on this?

00:27:25.860 Can we agree that I hope it doesn't mean exactly what it looks like?

00:27:30.660 Because exactly what it looks like doesn't look good.

00:27:34.640 Doesn't look good.

00:27:35.500 But we're under the 48-hour rule, are we not?

00:27:40.700 We're under the 48-hour rule, which means he gets to clarify.

00:27:45.700 And should he clarify in a way where I could say, oh, okay, that's what you're doing, then I'll be fine.

00:27:53.940 If he doesn't clarify, well, I guess you will get to make our own decisions.

00:27:59.480 I think you will.

00:28:00.120 Well, I mean, DEFCON 3 is full readiness, not an attack.

00:28:06.080 Well, come on.

00:28:08.120 That's not a distinction that matters, that DEFCON 3 is full readiness, not an attack.

00:28:14.820 I mean, I didn't think he was going to start rounding up people and putting them in camps.

00:28:23.340 Well, we can speculate what he means.

00:28:25.680 We can speculate.

00:28:26.460 It could be exactly what it looks like, but let's just wait.

00:28:34.620 Let's wait and see.

00:28:40.420 The thing I worry about with Ye is that once he gets some traction on something,

00:28:48.660 it seems like there's no such thing as too far, which is also why we like him, right?

00:28:58.400 Because he's unwilling to be bound by other people's requirements of where, you know, that he stay in his lane.

00:29:05.020 I mean, he may have left the ultimate lane on this one.

00:29:09.040 He may be testing how far he can go.

00:29:12.700 Well, so we'll find out.

00:29:16.900 It'll be interesting either way.

00:29:20.000 I saw when I said that, you know, we've all come together over the BLM stuff.

00:29:26.540 I also tweeted, you know, can we fix education now?

00:29:32.820 Because if we can agree that, you know, black lives matter, maybe that's like a little stepping stone toward working together on just something small to give some, you know, maybe some confidence that we can work together.

00:29:46.880 We meaning the left and the right.

00:29:48.360 And fix schools.

00:29:50.920 And then I saw a comment from Twitter user Jeremy Kaufman, who notes rather provocatively that he says that either outcomes, he's talking about school grades and the differences between black and white outcomes.

00:30:07.880 And he says either outcomes differ on average by race, uh-oh, or public school teachers are the most racist people in the country.

00:30:15.780 So he believes there's only two explanations for why, and then he showed some data.

00:30:20.820 I don't know how credible the data is, but it's suggested that poor white kids do about the same as rich white kids in school.

00:30:29.560 Do you believe that?

00:30:32.260 First of all, is that even true?

00:30:34.800 Do you think poor white kids do roughly this on the SATs?

00:30:38.600 Just on the SATs.

00:30:40.040 Do you think they do roughly?

00:30:41.860 That doesn't sound right.

00:30:43.080 But whether that's right or not, my point is going to be slightly off that.

00:30:51.580 My point is this.

00:30:53.640 How do you separate schools the way they are now from culture?

00:31:00.040 And I'll give you a specific example.

00:31:02.940 I came from a small town, which was, you know, lower income kind of a place.

00:31:08.280 Very small town.

00:31:09.140 2,000 people in my town, 40 people in my graduating class.

00:31:14.140 Small town.

00:31:15.900 So my, you know, the education that I got from that small town was not the greatest in the world.

00:31:22.380 But I got to college.

00:31:25.020 Now, when I was born, practically from the time I could understand language,

00:31:30.620 my mother was telling me that I was going to go to college no matter what.

00:31:34.860 And that that would be my ticket to a good life.

00:31:38.780 And also that if I got rich, I'd give her some money. 0.88

00:31:44.320 I'd help her out.

00:31:45.380 Because she always wanted to be rich, but didn't have the option.

00:31:48.280 So she thought, well, I'm going to make sure you kids go to college.

00:31:51.840 And if one of you makes it, maybe you'll share some of it.

00:31:55.080 Which I ended up doing, actually.

00:31:56.280 So let me ask you this.

00:32:00.660 Do you think being told you're going to go to college and succeed from birth made a difference in my path?

00:32:10.180 Of course it did.

00:32:12.500 Of course.

00:32:13.280 I didn't even know there was anything else to do.

00:32:16.240 I didn't even think failure was one of the options.

00:32:18.620 I never once thought about not going to college.

00:32:23.060 Not once.

00:32:24.460 I don't think I ever made a serious thought that I would, well, maybe not go to college.

00:32:30.640 Not once.

00:32:32.500 Now, take my mother and plop her into the inner city, you know, worst place you could be, 1.00

00:32:41.760 and make her a black mother instead of my mother. 1.00

00:32:44.220 And she's got a black kid, and she says, from birth, you're going to college. 0.98

00:32:51.340 But my school is terrible, and my, you know, the people are bad, but you're going to college.

00:32:56.100 Does it work?

00:32:58.720 I say no.

00:33:00.460 I say it wouldn't work.

00:33:02.960 I say it wouldn't work.

00:33:04.180 You know why?

00:33:06.320 Because my mother's one influence wouldn't be enough to overcome my environment.

00:33:11.540 It was enough to overcome my environment, sort of not really a college-bound community,

00:33:21.100 but nobody was against it.

00:33:23.580 Nobody in my town ever said, maybe you shouldn't go to college.

00:33:27.800 Maybe you should do these drugs instead.

00:33:30.460 You know, maybe you should join my gang instead of going to college.

00:33:32.880 There was no counter-narrative.

00:33:34.900 So even though the narrative that my mother gave me might have been, you know, somewhat rare within my town,

00:33:42.360 there was nobody on the other side.

00:33:44.980 So I had a clean highway.

00:33:47.640 To me, I mean, my highway was greased all the way.

00:33:51.740 It was like, here's your path, and it's all downhill.

00:33:56.260 The only thing you have to do is get on it.

00:33:58.300 It's like, 100 miles is a straight highway, it's all downhill, just be on it, and you will succeed.

00:34:07.680 And so my mother told me where the road was.

00:34:10.820 Everybody in my town agreed, everybody, no exceptions.

00:34:15.900 And they said, it's just right here, everybody.

00:34:18.540 The road's right here, everybody.

00:34:21.300 Well, just get on this road.

00:34:22.440 And then I walked over and I got on the road, and then my town pushed me, because they did.

00:34:28.700 They gave me a little boost.

00:34:30.780 And I rode down that road for 100 miles, just like they said.

00:34:36.600 Exactly like they said it would work.

00:34:39.060 It worked.

00:34:40.740 Now, I believe if you took that same mentality and moved it to the inner city, it wouldn't work at all.

00:34:47.140 Do you know why?

00:34:47.720 Because as soon as the kid gets to school, he's going to get a counter-narrative.

00:34:54.380 Oh, well, you're trying to act white? 0.96

00:34:56.880 Oh, what are you, nerd? 0.99

00:34:59.220 You should join this group. 0.99

00:35:01.820 Girls don't even like you. 1.00

00:35:03.580 You're never going to get laid if you act like that. 0.98

00:35:05.700 So, if you say to me that black Americans have done worse in their schools than white Americans have similar incomes, 0.96

00:35:16.860 I say to you, but not similar culture.

00:35:20.360 If you give them similar culture, well, then you've got a test.

00:35:24.640 Then you can find out what you're dealing with.

00:35:27.000 But we don't have anything like that.

00:35:29.060 There's no way to know.

00:35:30.160 Have you ever heard that Nigerian immigrants earn more than people born in this country?

00:35:39.440 Has anybody ever told you that?

00:35:41.600 That's one of those things you hear and you go, what?

00:35:46.720 If you have any racial bias in you and you hear that statistic, you go, wait, what did you say?

00:35:55.140 Nigerian immigrants make more on average than the average American.

00:35:58.900 Uh-huh.

00:36:00.740 Yeah.

00:36:02.560 Why?

00:36:04.620 Presumably because they don't have a cultural speed bump.

00:36:09.880 My guess, and I'm just guessing, is that they might have, maybe the people who self-select to come over here,

00:36:16.880 are people who have had education as a priority and didn't have anybody telling them it wasn't a good idea.

00:36:24.100 Probably.

00:36:24.980 Just guessing.

00:36:25.560 Yeah, a lot of them are doctors and engineers, which is, you know, how they can get here in the first place, right?

00:36:32.780 So, I would say that the biggest thing that we need to fix education is, wait for it,

00:36:44.040 separating culture from education.

00:36:46.340 Boom.

00:36:46.700 You need to do the education in a way that it is somehow insulated from the negative effects of people who just are not on the right path.

00:36:58.700 And there's no way to do that with the current school system.

00:37:01.840 So, your options are, you know, homeschooling, good luck with that, if you've got low income, or options, you know, vouchers or whatever.

00:37:14.520 So, probably creating a competitive situation would be the main thing.

00:37:21.380 You know what I'd also like to see?

00:37:23.900 Somebody had this idea. 0.97

00:37:26.240 Damn, I wish I could, I wish I could give credit. 0.97

00:37:30.200 But the idea looked like this. 0.98

00:37:32.800 Instead of giving somebody a, let's say, a voucher or something to go to school where they live,

00:37:41.040 you give them a scholarship to move.

00:37:45.140 Think about it.

00:37:45.920 So, you treat education as relocation.

00:37:52.000 How's that for a reframe?

00:37:54.020 We don't have an education problem, we have a relocation problem.

00:37:58.180 Because if you took the kids who are clustered in the bad culture,

00:38:03.460 and you could pick them out and put them, you know, individually into stronger cultures,

00:38:08.600 in theory, the stronger culture would start to work on the kids and do its thing.

00:38:13.720 So, it could be that relocation is what education requires.

00:38:21.660 Scott needs to read the bell curve.

00:38:23.540 I know all about that.

00:38:25.300 I know all about that.

00:38:26.480 Here's my argument.

00:38:28.600 My argument is that that's a red herring.

00:38:32.080 It wouldn't matter what the science says.

00:38:35.280 That our American responsibility is to give everybody their best shot.

00:38:41.420 And that's it.

00:38:42.080 And we're not giving everybody their best shot.

00:38:44.760 Not even close.

00:38:46.420 So, until you're even close to giving everybody their best shot,

00:38:53.080 I hear your argument, but I just don't think it's relevant to the biggest issues.

00:38:59.260 And I would argue this also.

00:39:04.400 Here's my argument against the bell curve.

00:39:07.800 So, the bell curve, in case you're not aware,

00:39:10.640 this would be a racially, let's say,

00:39:14.960 racially provocative theory about differences in IQs among races.

00:39:21.140 But here's what's the racists get wrong every time.

00:39:26.360 Because people want to take that as an explanation of everything we see.

00:39:32.320 Here's what's wrong with that.

00:39:33.600 Anybody who says that white people are smarter because white people, like, invented a bunch of stuff, 1.00

00:39:42.440 how much did you invent if you're a white person? 0.95

00:39:47.220 It doesn't really matter if there's some portion of your group that you identify with that killed it.

00:39:54.940 But, if it's not you, does the fact that Ben Franklin invented stuff, how does that help me?

00:40:04.340 I mean, it helps us all because we have, you know, inventions.

00:40:07.720 But, like, what's that got to do with me?

00:40:10.320 It kind of doesn't matter that there are differences among people

00:40:16.440 because it's sort of bumpy differences.

00:40:20.080 And I'm not one of those.

00:40:23.080 I'm not Einstein.

00:40:25.240 Does it matter that Einstein was smarter than just about everybody?

00:40:28.960 And he was also white and, you know, if you want to throw in Jewish and German

00:40:33.000 or whatever you're promoting today.

00:40:36.400 Does it matter?

00:40:37.380 Like, because you're not Einstein.

00:40:43.140 He's just a different person.

00:40:44.560 It doesn't, I don't know how I can take credit for that

00:40:47.080 for some completely different person.

00:40:51.800 All right.

00:40:52.640 I guess I haven't been canceled yet.

00:40:55.820 Still on here.

00:40:58.760 By the way, YouTube made some kind of change

00:41:01.580 that removed the monetization for a while.

00:41:05.320 Allegedly, I can monetize it still,

00:41:08.540 but it removes the interface for doing that.

00:41:13.100 I hope it's fixed by today.

00:41:16.100 But, you know, I was wondering yesterday

00:41:17.780 if that was aimed at me or some kind of a bigger thing.

00:41:21.740 Did we already talk about PayPal?

00:41:23.640 Or did I think about it?

00:41:24.760 Did I talk about PayPal?

00:41:28.860 Yet?

00:41:29.600 Not yet.

00:41:30.020 And so yesterday, you know that the story was

00:41:34.240 that PayPal had some upcoming language in their user agreement

00:41:38.720 that would have allowed you to, would have allowed PayPal

00:41:42.820 to fine its users $2,500 for spreading misinformation.

00:41:48.180 for spreading misinformation.

00:41:56.440 Now, they've already, they've already said that that was a mistake

00:41:59.960 and that language was not intended to be there

00:42:04.040 and they've already reversed it.

00:42:07.180 Now, a lot of people canceled in the meantime.

00:42:10.620 I tweeted that, you know, seriously,

00:42:12.660 you need to cancel your account if that's real.

00:42:14.540 But even after they said it wasn't real, allegedly,

00:42:21.300 a lot of people still canceled

00:42:22.940 because it did show their intentions, if you will.

00:42:26.560 Now, can I give you a Dilbert lesson?

00:42:30.820 Oh, I see it here.

00:42:31.900 I'm going to give you a Dilbert lesson.

00:42:33.420 You ready?

00:42:35.520 If you do not have experience with big corporations,

00:42:38.740 what is the most commonsensical thing you assume?

00:42:44.540 Do you not assume that in a big corporation,

00:42:48.400 there were probably multiple lawyers

00:42:50.160 and multiple managers who reviewed all this and said yes?

00:42:55.420 How many would agree with that?

00:42:57.360 That it must have been intentional

00:42:58.880 because there's no way there weren't a bunch of people

00:43:02.020 who saw it and said, yes, we want that.

00:43:05.020 Yes, yes, all of you.

00:43:06.920 All right, everybody who says yes is wrong, right?

00:43:10.380 All of you who think that multiple people saw that language,

00:43:13.800 you're all wrong. 0.83

00:43:15.680 Now, I'm not saying I know what happened.

00:43:18.180 I'm saying I know how big companies work.

00:43:22.760 And let me tell you, I used to have that job.

00:43:25.640 If you didn't work that exact job

00:43:28.120 of being the one who reviewed the lawyer's language,

00:43:32.260 you don't know how this works.

00:43:34.760 Let me explain it to you.

00:43:36.000 One lawyer, and only one,

00:43:41.000 exactly one lawyer,

00:43:43.040 is given the job of writing up the new terms.

00:43:46.480 The one lawyer throws in everything they can think of

00:43:50.620 because that's how you do it.

00:43:52.720 You throw in everything, just in case.

00:43:55.900 And you know that nobody's going to read it.

00:43:59.640 Typically.

00:44:00.880 Nobody's going to even read it.

00:44:01.940 That's why your software agreements,

00:44:04.600 you know, the shrink-wreck agreements

00:44:06.120 when you open software,

00:44:07.560 those agreements say stuff like,

00:44:09.200 we'll take your firstborn child,

00:44:11.620 we'll make you change your name to Microsoft,

00:44:15.380 we'll adopt your cat and take it from you. 1.00

00:44:18.940 I mean, just crazy shit. 1.00

00:44:21.260 And it all got approved, and we all signed it. 0.99

00:44:23.980 So, in that context, 0.99

00:44:27.240 where lawyers always put crazy shit 0.99

00:44:30.300 in their boilerplate, 1.00

00:44:33.740 one lawyer put crazy shit in it, 1.00

00:44:36.420 and it was really long. 1.00

00:44:37.740 And then it was given to somebody for approval.

00:44:41.380 Probably one person.

00:44:43.700 There was probably exactly one person

00:44:45.340 who had to approve it.

00:44:46.140 More than one person might have seen it,

00:44:48.140 but only one person had to approve it.

00:44:49.920 I would like to give you now

00:44:53.260 my impression of me

00:44:54.960 when I had that job.

00:44:57.600 Because it used to be my job to approve it.

00:45:00.600 I'd look at the lawyer's boilerplate

00:45:02.700 for agreements I was negotiating for corporations,

00:45:06.140 and the lawyer would give it to me,

00:45:08.300 and then I would look at it,

00:45:09.860 and I would decide if it were okay.

00:45:12.820 And if it were okay,

00:45:14.080 I'd tell my boss,

00:45:14.940 and my boss wouldn't read it,

00:45:16.640 of course, because it was my job.

00:45:18.160 And then the boss would just say,

00:45:19.820 whatever.

00:45:21.440 And here's me looking at the lawyer's boilerplate.

00:45:25.080 May I give you my impression

00:45:26.340 of me approving my lawyer's boilerplate?

00:45:35.060 Sure.

00:45:39.520 That's probably what happened.

00:45:42.900 If you've been there,

00:45:45.000 you know how it really works.

00:45:46.500 Now, is there anybody who's been in the job

00:45:50.320 to confirm to me,

00:45:52.860 that's how it really works.

00:45:54.700 One lawyer just put everything in there, 0.94

00:45:57.060 no matter how ridiculous it sounded, 0.57

00:45:59.420 and one person whose job was to approve it 0.76

00:46:02.320 didn't read it.

00:46:04.200 Do you think I read everything

00:46:05.460 my lawyers gave me to approve?

00:46:07.420 No way. 1.00

00:46:09.120 Your brain would explode.

00:46:11.880 Do you think I read everything 0.97

00:46:13.340 my lawyer gives me to sign today?

00:46:15.260 Do you think I check my taxes?

00:46:22.160 When my accountant gives me my taxes,

00:46:24.480 it's this thick.

00:46:26.620 Do you think I check it?

00:46:31.100 Well, the answer is I do.

00:46:33.260 I actually do.

00:46:34.240 Because I have lots of experience

00:46:35.860 with financial stuff

00:46:38.740 and documents.

00:46:40.180 So I actually do flip through it

00:46:43.080 and I found errors.

00:46:46.840 Not big ones.

00:46:48.320 But I found things that I thought,

00:46:50.140 hey, you know,

00:46:51.120 this should have been a little different.

00:46:52.760 Now, I'm unique

00:46:54.460 because I've done that for a living.

00:46:56.080 So I can look at my taxes

00:46:57.500 and I know what I'm looking at.

00:46:58.600 But generally speaking,

00:47:01.180 most of the legal agreements

00:47:02.580 that I sign,

00:47:03.260 I haven't read.

00:47:04.940 I have not read.

00:47:07.980 Did you read your prenup?

00:47:09.400 Yes.

00:47:12.880 Yeah, the prenup I read.

00:47:14.460 I read the prenup all the way through.

00:47:17.820 That would be the exception.

00:47:19.740 But certainly,

00:47:20.580 like boilerplate things.

00:47:22.840 See, a prenup is not a boilerplate.

00:47:25.840 You have to make a distinction

00:47:27.180 between agreements that are specific

00:47:29.240 and agreements that are

00:47:32.380 sort of generic.

00:47:34.640 The PayPal thing was a generic

00:47:36.280 boilerplate thing.

00:47:37.420 So that's the way I explained it

00:47:39.180 is the way that works.

00:47:40.160 People don't really read them.

00:47:41.960 But if you're doing a real agreement

00:47:43.240 for like a specific thing,

00:47:44.840 yeah, people read that.

00:47:46.840 I would definitely read that.

00:47:49.020 There was no excuse

00:47:52.020 for including this language.

00:47:56.580 No excuse from a management perspective.

00:48:00.340 But you have to understand

00:48:01.700 that the lawyer was just doing

00:48:03.200 the job of a lawyer.

00:48:05.080 The lawyer wants to give their company

00:48:07.440 every option just in case.

00:48:10.720 Just in case there's some Nazi 0.91

00:48:12.560 using PayPal.

00:48:14.440 They want to be able to say,

00:48:15.860 well, we can't ding you

00:48:17.700 for being a Nazi, 0.56

00:48:18.480 but you spread some misinformation

00:48:20.720 so we can get you for that.

00:48:22.480 It was just to give them options.

00:48:25.060 Yeah.

00:48:25.540 I can't say it was the best

00:48:27.060 lawyering in the world,

00:48:28.640 but it wasn't outside the realm

00:48:30.880 of normal lawyering.

00:48:32.480 It was pretty normal, actually.

00:48:34.680 Management must take responsibility.

00:48:36.520 Yes, they must.

00:48:37.420 And they did.

00:48:38.320 They did take responsibility, actually.

00:48:40.280 They said it was a mistake.

00:48:41.580 So, there's that.

00:48:45.040 Do you know what they didn't say?

00:48:48.160 We will never do that.

00:48:51.740 That's what they didn't say.

00:48:55.140 Here's how the apology should have worked.

00:48:58.940 Had they done the Steve Jobs pattern

00:49:02.960 much better.

00:49:05.080 The Steve Jobs pattern

00:49:06.180 would have gone like this.

00:49:07.480 First, you acknowledge the harm.

00:49:10.660 Oh, we're sorry.

00:49:11.760 We didn't mean to cause this trouble.

00:49:14.920 So, first, you acknowledge

00:49:16.120 that you hurt people.

00:49:18.060 We didn't mean to damage your trust.

00:49:22.120 Sorry about that.

00:49:23.960 Next thing you do is you say,

00:49:27.020 you're going to fix it.

00:49:30.200 Then you know what the problem is.

00:49:31.200 You're going to fix it.

00:49:32.620 But here's the thing that,

00:49:33.860 and they did that.

00:49:34.760 They said, we've already fixed it.

00:49:36.360 But here's the thing they got wrong.

00:49:39.100 They should have come out and said,

00:49:41.120 we will never do that.

00:49:43.340 We will never kick you off the service

00:49:45.120 for misinformation on another platform.

00:49:48.260 If they'd gone the extra,

00:49:54.140 and maybe even say,

00:49:55.420 we reprimanded the lawyer,

00:49:57.800 or somebody got fired.

00:50:00.460 If they'd said,

00:50:01.380 we fired whoever wrote that,

00:50:03.200 even if they didn't,

00:50:05.420 that would have gone a long way.

00:50:07.780 Think about how you would think of the story

00:50:09.740 if you heard they fired that person

00:50:11.760 the minute they found out.

00:50:15.400 You would feel differently,

00:50:16.920 because then you would say,

00:50:17.960 oh, okay,

00:50:18.820 management is definitely not on that page.

00:50:21.120 But there was that one employee.

00:50:23.560 But as soon as management just says,

00:50:25.440 oh, we changed the language

00:50:27.340 because we got caught,

00:50:29.300 then it looks like

00:50:30.480 it was management's decision, doesn't it?

00:50:32.680 So that was a mistake.

00:50:35.120 If they believe they would never do that,

00:50:37.620 they should say,

00:50:38.240 it is our intention,

00:50:39.100 we would never do that.

00:50:43.180 So many of you have already canceled PayPal.

00:50:45.020 Yeah, I think they noticed.

00:50:48.460 They definitely noticed.

00:50:51.800 All right.

00:50:53.000 Is there any other story I forgot today?

00:50:55.960 Anything else happening?

00:50:56.760 Oh, Naval says Putin would use a tactical nuke

00:51:04.580 if he was close to being replaced,

00:51:07.140 and the U.S. thinks they can.

00:51:10.480 Well, I don't know that the U.S.

00:51:13.100 is going to try to replace Putin,

00:51:15.320 because that seems dicey.

00:51:16.140 I mean, Russia is going to have to do what Russia does. 0.87

00:51:20.240 I do think that, you know,

00:51:26.220 Naval has to be taken seriously

00:51:27.860 any time he says anything.

00:51:29.820 But the odds are still overwhelmingly

00:51:35.260 in favor of no nuclear holocaust.

00:51:38.880 I didn't see the Masters-Kelley debate.

00:51:54.800 Game theory said it was reasonable.

00:51:57.380 Yeah, I agree that

00:51:59.040 if we were trying to replace Putin,

00:52:01.540 that a tactical nuke might shake the box,

00:52:07.880 I don't think it would be his best play.

00:52:14.040 All right.

00:52:14.680 Florida Surgeon General.

00:52:16.540 What's that?

00:52:18.000 Tweet removal?

00:52:18.800 I don't know about that.

00:52:19.920 Does anyone know how Putin feels?

00:52:27.640 Well, Putin just turned 70,

00:52:29.540 so it was his birthday.

00:52:30.900 So I guess the Crimea Bridge

00:52:33.320 got attacked on Putin's birthday.

00:52:35.600 Do you think that was a coincidence?

00:52:38.420 Was it a coincidence they attacked the bridge,

00:52:41.000 which apparently had, you know,

00:52:42.160 great symbolic importance,

00:52:43.700 on his birthday?

00:52:45.600 Coincidence or no?

00:52:46.420 I say not a coincidence.

00:52:51.820 Right?

00:52:52.900 Right?

00:52:53.540 Not a coincidence.

00:52:55.140 Because it's personal.

00:53:02.160 The attack on his birthday

00:53:04.680 does suggest

00:53:06.520 a specific person was behind it,

00:53:09.720 but I would only be speculating.

00:53:13.220 I don't think so,

00:53:14.780 but maybe.

00:53:16.420 All right.

00:53:23.780 Who gains from the attack

00:53:25.280 on the bridge?

00:53:25.920 Ukraine.

00:53:27.980 What do you mean,

00:53:28.740 who gains from an attack

00:53:29.800 on the bridge?

00:53:34.640 Oh, yeah.

00:53:35.600 Let's talk about

00:53:36.300 the Vindman connection.

00:53:37.980 All right.

00:53:39.680 Let me take you back

00:53:40.620 to Trump's perfect phone call

00:53:43.040 with Zelensky

00:53:43.760 and Alexander Vindman.

00:53:46.780 Do you remember

00:53:47.620 the story that

00:53:49.220 Ukraine asked

00:53:51.740 Alexander Vindman,

00:53:53.000 an American,

00:53:54.580 to be their

00:53:55.980 head of defense, right?

00:53:59.100 Can you do me?

00:53:59.860 Fact check me on that.

00:54:01.580 Vindman,

00:54:02.300 an American,

00:54:03.200 was offered by Ukraine

00:54:05.140 a colonel

00:54:06.860 to be their head

00:54:08.660 of their entire military,

00:54:10.380 was he not?

00:54:12.460 Now,

00:54:12.920 he didn't take that,

00:54:13.700 of course.

00:54:15.180 But

00:54:15.580 imagine if he had.

00:54:19.620 Just imagine this.

00:54:21.120 If Vindman

00:54:21.780 had taken the job,

00:54:22.820 number one,

00:54:23.420 would he have done so well?

00:54:25.000 Because Ukraine 0.95

00:54:25.640 is over,

00:54:26.300 you know,

00:54:27.560 is overcompensating.

00:54:28.800 But here's the other thing.

00:54:32.260 Have you not been wondering

00:54:33.840 who is advising Biden?

00:54:38.860 Haven't you been wondering

00:54:40.200 who is it

00:54:40.940 who is behind the curtain

00:54:42.160 who is the most influential

00:54:44.620 person on Ukraine

00:54:46.100 within the Biden administration?

00:54:50.860 I feel like it's Vindman.

00:54:54.140 Vindman,

00:54:55.400 there's something about Vindman

00:54:56.800 that I don't quite understand,

00:54:59.340 which is,

00:55:00.160 how did an American colonel

00:55:01.800 even get the offer

00:55:02.960 to be the head

00:55:04.200 of their entire military?

00:55:07.100 How is that even a thing?

00:55:10.220 And what it makes me wonder

00:55:12.200 is if Vindman

00:55:14.840 doesn't have more game

00:55:15.900 than we know.

00:55:17.940 In other words,

00:55:19.920 was he effective enough

00:55:21.400 that the Ukrainians

00:55:22.380 actually knew

00:55:23.020 that he would be

00:55:23.640 a good head of their military?

00:55:26.160 I mean,

00:55:26.420 why would you even

00:55:27.080 make that offer?

00:55:28.640 Could it be

00:55:29.360 because they knew

00:55:30.080 Vindman was so connected

00:55:31.480 to the Biden administration

00:55:33.980 somehow

00:55:34.620 that he could get

00:55:36.320 more funding

00:55:36.960 and more American support?

00:55:39.060 So maybe having Vindman

00:55:40.160 was really just a way

00:55:41.460 to have more fundraising

00:55:43.720 guarantee from America.

00:55:45.820 Maybe.

00:55:48.520 But something tells me

00:55:49.860 that Vindman

00:55:51.360 has more to do

00:55:52.480 with this whole story

00:55:53.580 than we fully know.

00:55:56.420 Yeah.

00:56:00.380 Maybe.

00:56:01.280 So, I don't know.

00:56:05.340 Could be.

00:56:06.520 All right.

00:56:07.580 Yeah, I don't

00:56:08.580 see in Vindman

00:56:09.980 that whole

00:56:10.980 head of the army

00:56:12.980 leadership capability,

00:56:14.640 but

00:56:14.780 I don't know.

00:56:16.560 There's somebody

00:56:17.120 advising on Ukraine

00:56:18.540 and he probably knows

00:56:19.500 more about them

00:56:20.120 than most people.

00:56:20.780 Oh, somebody said

00:56:25.860 follow the money

00:56:26.540 and I wanted to remind you.

00:56:29.120 I always tell you

00:56:30.040 that follow the money

00:56:30.880 works even when

00:56:31.820 it shouldn't.

00:56:33.320 And I have a different

00:56:34.060 way to explain that

00:56:34.920 because that's not

00:56:35.520 convincing.

00:56:36.440 It's not persuasive.

00:56:38.240 So what I mean by that

00:56:39.440 is that

00:56:40.000 sometimes it's obvious

00:56:41.420 what follow the money

00:56:42.500 means.

00:56:43.020 Like, oh,

00:56:43.820 the people who would

00:56:44.820 make the most profit

00:56:45.660 seem to be in favor

00:56:46.680 of this.

00:56:47.120 So obviously

00:56:48.040 it's because of

00:56:49.060 the profit.

00:56:50.060 So sometimes

00:56:50.640 it's obvious.

00:56:52.000 But then there are

00:56:52.700 other times

00:56:53.160 when there clearly

00:56:53.940 doesn't seem to be

00:56:54.940 any monetary

00:56:55.860 impact.

00:56:58.400 And then by coincidence

00:56:59.680 reality will still

00:57:02.380 follow the path

00:57:03.200 where somebody

00:57:04.060 made a profit.

00:57:05.660 And you say to yourself,

00:57:06.580 well, that was probably

00:57:07.380 just a coincidence.

00:57:08.860 Here's my new theory.

00:57:10.600 Follow the money

00:57:11.400 as a cheat code

00:57:12.360 for understanding

00:57:14.200 where the simulation

00:57:15.340 is going to go.

00:57:17.120 But not necessarily

00:57:18.240 because of it.

00:57:20.020 See, that's what I'm

00:57:20.700 adding.

00:57:21.540 If you think that you

00:57:22.660 can follow the money

00:57:23.900 because it's just

00:57:24.660 a cause and effect,

00:57:26.180 maybe.

00:57:27.380 And most of the time

00:57:28.360 it is.

00:57:29.420 But what if it's also

00:57:30.600 a cheat code

00:57:31.400 that just tells you

00:57:33.100 what's going to happen

00:57:33.940 even when you can't

00:57:35.480 see any cause and effect

00:57:36.480 where money should even

00:57:37.480 be part of it?

00:57:39.700 But money's always

00:57:40.660 part of it.

00:57:41.880 There's nothing big

00:57:42.840 that happens

00:57:43.540 that doesn't have

00:57:44.820 some monetary

00:57:46.120 impact on somebody.

00:57:49.040 So try this

00:57:49.900 just for a fun experiment.

00:57:52.140 So this is an experiment

00:57:53.220 to see if we're

00:57:54.460 in a simulation.

00:57:56.120 Every time you have

00:57:57.280 to predict something,

00:57:59.240 figure out

00:58:00.080 where the money

00:58:01.540 situation would

00:58:02.640 flow,

00:58:04.120 and then make your

00:58:04.900 prediction based

00:58:05.660 on the money

00:58:06.300 even if you're

00:58:07.800 pretty sure

00:58:08.460 that's not why

00:58:09.220 anybody's making

00:58:09.940 the decision.

00:58:11.380 And see how often

00:58:12.140 you're right.

00:58:13.920 So again,

00:58:14.760 it's not because

00:58:15.400 of cause and effect

00:58:16.380 money causes things,

00:58:17.880 although it usually does.

00:58:19.220 But even when you

00:58:20.320 can't see the cause

00:58:21.300 and effect,

00:58:22.000 money will still

00:58:23.580 predict.

00:58:25.060 It's a cheat code.

00:58:27.820 Maybe.

00:58:28.920 It looks that way.

00:58:30.460 So just keep an eye

00:58:31.340 out for that.

00:58:33.860 That's what makes

00:58:34.760 economics fun.

00:58:35.740 You're right.

00:58:36.660 Exactly.

00:58:37.120 Exactly.

00:58:39.940 All right.

00:58:42.880 Do you know much

00:58:43.960 about the current

00:58:44.700 Alex Jones case?

00:58:47.220 I don't.

00:58:49.900 I do not.

00:58:52.560 Follow the fuel.

00:58:54.360 Yeah, that's the

00:58:54.900 other way to do it.

00:58:56.720 So as I was saying

00:58:57.720 yesterday,

00:58:58.300 that energy,

00:59:00.460 your energy

00:59:01.720 availability,

00:59:02.920 and whether you're

00:59:03.640 a buyer or a seller,

00:59:05.080 determines your

00:59:05.800 economics.

00:59:07.140 Your economics

00:59:07.920 determines your

00:59:09.080 homeland security.

00:59:13.040 If you just

00:59:13.860 followed energy,

00:59:15.400 it would explain

00:59:16.080 everything over time

00:59:17.180 probably.

00:59:18.340 You know,

00:59:18.620 more than even money.

00:59:20.100 Because money and energy

00:59:21.060 end up being the same

00:59:22.020 thing.

00:59:22.560 Yeah.

00:59:24.420 Irrefungible.

00:59:27.140 All right.

00:59:27.820 That's all for now.

00:59:28.980 We did cover PayPal.

00:59:30.240 You missed it.

00:59:31.040 And I'm going to say

00:59:31.940 goodbye to YouTube

00:59:32.760 for now.

00:59:33.900 And Spotify.

00:59:34.660 Bye.

00:59:34.820 Bye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 09, 2022

Episode 1891 Scott Adams： Let's Talk About Kanye Causing Trouble

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