Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1922 Scott Adams： Red Wave Blues And Signals Everyone Missed. Persuasion Filter： ON

00:00:00.000 It'll be okay. Settle down. We'll all be fine, I promise.

00:00:08.180 And if you'd like to take what might be a bad day for some of you,

00:00:13.840 if you'd like to make the best of it, well, you came to the right place.

00:00:18.580 I'm going to explain it all, and so you will go away from this encounter

00:00:24.280 knowing exactly what went wrong. Are you ready?

00:00:27.400 Well, if you'd like to take it up to the highest level of understanding,

00:00:31.460 all you need is a cuppa, a mug, a glass, a tanker, a chalice, a stein,

00:00:34.700 a canteen jug, or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:37.020 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:40.300 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure.

00:00:42.920 It's the dopamine hit of the day.

00:00:44.420 The thing that makes everything better, except the midterms.

00:00:49.080 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now. Go.

00:00:51.960 Oh, yeah.

00:01:01.300 Two sniffs and an exhale.

00:01:05.520 Oh, don't you feel better now?

00:01:07.920 A little bit.

00:01:09.760 All right, I'm going to lift your spirits and make everything better.

00:01:13.580 Maybe. We'll see.

00:01:15.020 I don't know if you heard there was an election last night.

00:01:21.940 I think Ben Shapiro summed it up best in a tweet as he was watching the results come in.

00:01:30.580 He said, from red wave to red wedding.

00:01:34.500 Now, if you don't watch Game of Thrones, that meant nothing to you.

00:01:39.460 If you do watch Game of Thrones, pretty darn clever.

00:01:43.440 The red wedding was a bloody massacre.

00:01:48.200 Can somebody confirm something for me before I get ripped apart today?

00:01:56.380 I need you to be my memory.

00:01:59.780 I believe I never predicted a red wave.

00:02:04.440 Is that true?

00:02:05.220 Or do I have false memory about my own performance?

00:02:09.240 Go.

00:02:11.640 True?

00:02:14.800 Mostly true, somebody says?

00:02:16.540 Yeah.

00:02:18.180 Yeah, I couldn't remember if there was any time I did,

00:02:22.260 but my memory was never being confident it was going to happen.

00:02:27.320 I was never confident it was going to be a red wave.

00:02:30.140 And I'll tell you why.

00:02:31.020 Because, once again, the persuasion filter just sees things different than the fact filter.

00:02:38.100 So I was never feeling it.

00:02:40.640 I never once felt a red wave.

00:02:43.120 Like in my bones.

00:02:45.120 I saw the same thing you saw.

00:02:47.320 I saw the experts.

00:02:48.440 I saw the polls.

00:02:49.900 I never really felt it.

00:02:51.420 Never really felt it.

00:02:52.900 So I'm not surprised at all.

00:02:55.100 Let me ask you, how many of you are surprised at the result?

00:02:57.640 I was completely open to this going either way.

00:03:04.700 Yeah.

00:03:05.820 Yeah.

00:03:06.640 All right.

00:03:07.240 Well, we'll talk about all of this.

00:03:12.260 So let's see if we can learn from our mistakes.

00:03:16.400 Okay?

00:03:17.640 Let's be the only people in the Internet who can learn from our mistakes.

00:03:22.680 And as I tweeted this morning, if you believe the experts, the non-red wave is a surprise, right?

00:03:33.680 Anybody who believed the experts was surprised today.

00:03:39.020 How have the experts done in the last few years?

00:03:43.660 What would you say?

00:03:44.600 Have the experts been nailing it?

00:03:47.360 Batting a thousand?

00:03:48.700 Doing real good?

00:03:49.480 If you had bet against the experts on literally everything, how would you have done?

00:03:55.560 Suppose you didn't even know what the issues were.

00:03:59.820 You weren't paying attention to anything.

00:04:01.880 And you just cast a bet against the consensus of the experts just every time.

00:04:07.140 On COVID, on politics, on the economy.

00:04:10.260 Just every time.

00:04:11.760 How would you do?

00:04:13.460 You would have had a positive record.

00:04:16.580 No, it wouldn't be a coin flip.

00:04:18.620 It would not be a coin flip.

00:04:20.940 You would have probably a, I don't know, two-thirds success rate.

00:04:26.720 Two out of three, something like that.

00:04:28.600 Yeah, following the experts is a terrible idea lately.

00:04:31.620 Maybe the worst it's ever been.

00:04:33.140 I don't know.

00:04:35.880 If you believe that facts are more important than feelings, how'd you do?

00:04:39.460 How are the facts of how the country is doing?

00:04:44.920 And if you believe the facts that, oh, there's all this crime and inflation and the economy.

00:04:49.820 If you thought the facts were going to tell you how the midterms would come out, how'd that go?

00:04:54.820 Didn't work at all, did it?

00:04:57.200 Completely non-predictive.

00:04:59.440 Right?

00:04:59.580 So, what was predictive?

00:05:05.920 Was there anything that people used to predict that was predictive?

00:05:11.660 Well, it turns out, yes.

00:05:14.360 Yes.

00:05:15.180 It turns out that there was one frame for looking at this situation that was completely predictive.

00:05:21.940 You're going to hate this.

00:05:23.920 You're going to fucking hate this.

00:05:25.220 What demographic group caused the win for the Democrats?

00:05:30.940 Go.

00:05:31.380 What demographic group caused the win?

00:05:36.560 Not white women.

00:05:37.860 Not white women.

00:05:40.080 It's women.

00:05:41.420 And it's not women.

00:05:42.660 It's young women.

00:05:44.460 Right?

00:05:44.740 Right?

00:05:45.220 So, young women of all types seem to be the dominant factor.

00:05:53.940 Right?

00:05:54.100 Young women.

00:06:00.340 Have I ever told you what is the strongest form of persuasion?

00:06:05.520 What's the fear?

00:06:06.800 Yeah.

00:06:07.220 There's nothing that persuades more than fear.

00:06:10.280 Because fear you have to take care of first.

00:06:12.860 It's like, uh-oh.

00:06:14.240 Well, I don't need lunch if I'm going to be eaten by a lion.

00:06:18.840 So, first I'll run away from the lion, and then I'll worry about lunch.

00:06:22.900 Right?

00:06:23.160 Now, lunch is essential.

00:06:25.720 I mean, eating is essential.

00:06:27.620 But not as essential as surviving so you can eat.

00:06:31.800 So, fear is number one, and there's nothing close.

00:06:35.620 Yeah.

00:06:35.780 Somebody said sex.

00:06:38.240 I'll agree with you.

00:06:39.240 Sex would be more persuasive than fear, even fear, but it doesn't really enter into politics.

00:06:45.760 But you're right.

00:06:46.520 So, that was actually a very insightful comment.

00:06:50.000 Sex would actually be more persuasive than even fear.

00:06:54.000 You see yourself, right?

00:06:55.160 People have sex, even when it's risky.

00:06:59.540 So, yes.

00:07:00.260 You're absolutely right.

00:07:01.160 If sex had been part of the question, like sexual relations, not gender, yeah, it would have made a difference.

00:07:07.940 But politics, it doesn't.

00:07:09.020 All right.

00:07:11.640 So, if fear is the most important persuasion factor, let me ask you this.

00:07:16.840 What demographic group, based on science, not bigotry, based on science, not bigotry, what group is most susceptible to fear?

00:07:28.740 What group is easiest to scare?

00:07:33.480 Yeah.

00:07:34.060 And this is not a sexist comment.

00:07:37.780 I had to go Google it, because I didn't know.

00:07:41.580 And I just wondered if there was any difference.

00:07:43.420 And you Google it, and all of the top results say the same thing.

00:07:47.580 Yeah, there's a big difference.

00:07:49.800 The women's biology is such that they're easier to scare.

00:07:54.720 They have more fear about things.

00:07:57.320 Now, that makes sense, doesn't it?

00:08:00.260 You understand that.

00:08:01.680 Like, if I walk out in public, I've said this before, and it's even a little bit irrational.

00:08:08.860 I've never been afraid of a person.

00:08:11.940 Isn't that weird?

00:08:13.880 Now, I've been afraid of a gun that the person had in their hands.

00:08:18.100 Unfortunately, I've looked down the barrel of a few guns.

00:08:20.900 I've been afraid of that.

00:08:21.960 But if it's just the person, I'm not really afraid of somebody just because they're big.

00:08:28.680 Right?

00:08:28.940 It's part of being male.

00:08:30.400 Are you?

00:08:31.460 Are there any men who are afraid of just being in public because there are men who are bigger or tougher looking?

00:08:38.960 That never even enters my mind.

00:08:41.140 Oh, you are?

00:08:42.300 You are.

00:08:42.880 Now, I'm not talking about going into a dangerous neighborhood.

00:08:45.820 Of course, you shall be fearful of that.

00:08:49.300 I'm talking about just you get on the bus and there's some big men on the bus.

00:08:55.540 Would that scare you if you're not as big as them, if you're male?

00:08:59.180 That wouldn't scare me.

00:09:00.860 I mean, not even a little bit.

00:09:01.820 But if you're a woman, do you have an actual risk?

00:09:07.020 You do.

00:09:08.000 Yeah.

00:09:08.540 It's an actual risk.

00:09:10.300 So it makes sense.

00:09:11.860 Biologically, it's completely rational that those who are less able to inflict death on somebody would be more afraid of other people.

00:09:22.800 You know, one of the benefits of being male is that we can kill anybody.

00:09:26.720 Am I right?

00:09:28.380 You could be bigger than me, but I could definitely kill you.

00:09:31.840 Right?

00:09:32.280 I might have to wait until you turn around.

00:09:34.860 I might have to wait until you go to sleep.

00:09:36.700 But, oh, I could kill you.

00:09:38.680 I could kill you.

00:09:39.980 Right?

00:09:40.400 And every man could.

00:09:42.300 Now, women could kill you when you fall asleep, too.

00:09:44.380 It's just they're less likely to do it.

00:09:47.220 By the way, I saw a story in the news.

00:09:48.940 There was a woman who found nude pictures on her boyfriend or husband, I think.

00:09:54.840 I think it was husband.

00:09:55.620 And found nude pictures of, you know, some young-looking hot woman on his computer.

00:10:02.500 And she ended up stabbing him.

00:10:04.740 She was so jealous, she stabbed him.

00:10:07.280 And later she found out that the nude pictures on his computer were pictures of his wife when she was thinner.

00:10:13.540 So, that was probably awkward later in the evening when they sorted that all out.

00:10:22.520 Oh, talk about an awkward day.

00:10:25.640 Wow.

00:10:26.840 Anyway, so women can kill men, too.

00:10:29.360 It's just they need a reason.

00:10:31.600 That was her reason.

00:10:33.200 She didn't kill them, though.

00:10:34.220 She just stabbed him a few times.

00:10:38.640 So, yes.

00:10:39.600 It is scientifically true that young women who dominate the Democrat Party are easier to scare.

00:10:45.660 Now, so number one, since both sides are trying to scare their own side, mostly you're talking to your own team, right?

00:10:55.800 So, you've got one team of dominated by older white men.

00:11:02.940 Are men, are older white men easier or harder to scare than the average person?

00:11:12.620 Older, I'm not talking about elderly necessarily.

00:11:15.260 I'm just, you know, older, mature.

00:11:17.700 Older, they're pretty hard to scare, right?

00:11:21.060 Yeah, we're pretty hard to scare.

00:11:22.960 I'm in that group.

00:11:24.620 We're pretty hard to scare, like actual scare.

00:11:28.200 You know, we'll be concerned about things like anybody would, but it's kind of hard to scare us, irrationally.

00:11:35.680 So, that is a, that's a built-in advantage.

00:11:38.760 All right, now I'm going to go one level further.

00:11:42.440 Who is easier to scare?

00:11:43.880 A man with high testosterone or low?

00:11:48.660 Go.

00:11:49.340 And this is not bigotry, this is science.

00:11:52.100 This, this is only what science will support.

00:11:54.720 There's no speculation involved here.

00:11:58.760 Yeah, low T people are easier to scare.

00:12:02.340 High T people are braver.

00:12:04.600 Now, they might be braver to the point of stupidity.

00:12:07.900 Let me be clear here.

00:12:09.360 I'm not saying men are awesome and high testosterone men are the best of all.

00:12:14.980 There's, there's no quality judgment happening here.

00:12:17.920 I'm not, I'm not trying to put anybody down.

00:12:21.100 I'm only talking pure science.

00:12:24.580 And if you Google it, which I did, you'll find that the higher your testosterone, the less fear you have.

00:12:31.180 That's just sort of what that drug does to you.

00:12:34.040 Right?

00:12:34.640 You put a little more testosterone in, you get a little braver.

00:12:37.240 However, it's one to one.

00:12:39.760 Now, let me ask you this.

00:12:43.340 Does the Democrat Party have high T men or low T men?

00:12:47.740 On average.

00:12:50.260 Yeah.

00:12:51.100 I feel like it is sort of low T men who want to, who want to be popular with women.

00:12:59.300 And they believe that women told them the truth, that if they act sensitive, they'll like them better.

00:13:04.520 Do you know, I believe that for like 20 years.

00:13:11.180 Women have gaslighted me for almost 20 years in my younger life.

00:13:15.780 Because I got raised in the, you know, the feminist era.

00:13:19.140 So the feminist said, you know, to be a good male and not a piece of shit, you should be in touch with your feminine side.

00:13:30.200 And you should be flexible and more, and more like a woman.

00:13:34.100 I mean, you know, you don't have to be a woman, but just be more in touch with your feminine side.

00:13:39.740 And that would make you a person that people are really going to like.

00:13:45.460 So, yeah.

00:13:46.360 In my younger days, I thought, you know, if I give women everything they want, I'm in.

00:13:54.960 Just give them everything they ask for.

00:13:58.060 Yeah.

00:13:58.640 It won't be easy.

00:14:00.360 But I'm the kind of guy who's willing to do the extra work.

00:14:03.660 Yeah.

00:14:03.880 I don't care that it's hard to get there.

00:14:06.380 Oh, you tell me if the path is hard, but there's a good reward at the end.

00:14:09.940 I'll still take that path.

00:14:11.400 Because I'm the kind of guy who will crawl through broken glass to get what I want, which is true.

00:14:18.400 Basically, I'm unstoppable if I really want something.

00:14:22.260 But I was gaslighted so badly that I thought the way to crawl through glass was to give women what they asked for.

00:14:30.920 Oh, my God, was I stupid.

00:14:33.880 Oh, my God.

00:14:36.260 Like, it took me years to figure out that was all a lie.

00:14:39.500 And none of that was, like, how people work.

00:14:42.680 Like, it was just completely off model for just anything.

00:14:46.400 Just reality did not conform to any of that.

00:14:49.520 Right?

00:14:50.740 Your libido has ruled your life.

00:14:52.780 Well, of course it has.

00:14:54.680 Am I supposed to apologize for that?

00:14:58.120 If your libido ruled your life, it might not have worked out well.

00:15:01.880 But I wouldn't apologize for it.

00:15:05.040 That is literally how you were evolved.

00:15:08.260 You evolved so your libido would take over your brain.

00:15:12.540 I don't apologize for that.

00:15:14.500 It's neither good nor bad.

00:15:16.000 It's just how I evolved.

00:15:17.920 Right?

00:15:18.060 I didn't have anything to do with the choices my ancestors made.

00:15:20.940 Not my fault.

00:15:22.480 I just got here the way I got here.

00:15:25.060 All right.

00:15:25.360 What is the most predictive element?

00:15:31.400 I asked you what's the most persuasion element.

00:15:33.980 What's the most predictive thing in all the world?

00:15:38.920 The most predictive thing.

00:15:41.400 It never fails.

00:15:45.120 Seriously?

00:15:46.140 Yeah, money.

00:15:47.440 Follow the money works even when it shouldn't.

00:15:49.640 Now, the even when it shouldn't is the part that I'm adding to the conversation.

00:15:55.620 You've all heard follow the money, blah, blah, blah, right?

00:15:58.740 Follow the money is just so obvious there's nothing to say about it.

00:16:02.740 It's just so obvious.

00:16:04.080 But what I'm adding, and I'm adding this aggressively,

00:16:09.040 is that follow the money works even when there's no fucking reason it should.

00:16:14.400 Like, every part of your instinct says, not this time.

00:16:18.600 This time, it's not going to be about the money,

00:16:21.300 because we have all these other big issues.

00:16:23.200 There's, you know, the fate of the world.

00:16:25.680 You know, it's honor.

00:16:27.100 It's integrity.

00:16:28.020 It's the fate of the democracy.

00:16:29.920 These are all so big.

00:16:30.900 It's not about the money this time.

00:16:33.400 And then it's always about the money.

00:16:36.060 My understanding is that the Democrats spent better on close races.

00:16:42.280 Is that confirmed?

00:16:44.400 Can anybody confirm that from the reporting today?

00:16:50.140 I saw one of the pundits say that the Democrats,

00:16:53.480 and it was a Republican who said it,

00:16:55.300 a Republican said that the Democrats spent better in the close races.

00:17:01.400 So now you've got two factors that predicted the Democrats would do well.

00:17:07.280 Factor one, fear is the biggest persuasion thing.

00:17:12.960 But here's the next thing.

00:17:14.400 All right, here's the next quiz.

00:17:17.020 Which is more persuasive?

00:17:19.860 I will give you something you want.

00:17:22.840 Or I will take from you something you value.

00:17:26.860 Which one forms action more?

00:17:30.140 I'll give you something you ask for.

00:17:32.140 Or I'll take from you something you value.

00:17:34.740 Not even close.

00:17:36.120 Not even close.

00:17:37.700 Not even close.

00:17:39.560 If you're going to take something, you've got to fight.

00:17:43.500 You've got to fight on your hands if you're taking.

00:17:46.020 You don't take.

00:17:47.560 We're not a species that evolved to give up stuff.

00:17:51.440 You know, we like stuff, but there's lots of stuff we like,

00:17:55.840 and we're also used to not getting what we like.

00:17:58.940 Right?

00:17:59.060 We're very used to not getting everything we like.

00:18:01.620 But man, if I've got something,

00:18:04.740 and you fucking try to take it away from me,

00:18:07.460 suddenly it's the most important thing in my life.

00:18:10.300 You're not taking my shit.

00:18:12.260 Right?

00:18:13.540 So what did the Republicans say they would do for the Democrat women?

00:18:18.720 They said they'd take their shit.

00:18:21.580 Elect us and we'll take away your rights.

00:18:24.480 That's how they heard it.

00:18:26.240 Right?

00:18:26.580 Because abortion.

00:18:28.080 Now, I'm not speaking for or against abortion,

00:18:30.740 so we're not talking about the policy.

00:18:32.800 I'm only talking about the persuasion.

00:18:36.340 Now, a lot of people said that

00:18:38.240 abortion was not why they were voting.

00:18:45.800 A lot of people said, like, 2% or 3% said that's why they voted.

00:18:49.520 But 2% or 3% was the margin on all the tight races, wasn't it?

00:18:54.560 2% to 3% said abortion was why they voted.

00:18:58.680 You know, they were kind of single-issue voters.

00:19:01.020 2% to 3% is all it takes.

00:19:03.520 That's the whole game.

00:19:04.440 I mean, you could easily make a story that abortion is the only thing that mattered.

00:19:11.140 At the same time, the news is saying the opposite.

00:19:14.000 They're saying that only 2% to 3% said it mattered, so it didn't matter.

00:19:18.700 Isn't that upside down?

00:19:20.960 If 2% to 3% actually voted because of it,

00:19:24.500 that's the whole race.

00:19:27.060 So I don't know.

00:19:27.840 I mean, I think that one's still a little bit gray,

00:19:30.980 but you've got to at least wonder if that mattered.

00:19:34.220 All right, what is something else that the Republicans were going to take away from the Democrats?

00:19:40.520 Go.

00:19:41.600 What were the Democrats afraid of losing besides abortion?

00:19:47.880 Democracy.

00:19:50.060 Democracy.

00:19:51.720 Yep.

00:19:53.120 They thought they were going to lose democracy.

00:19:55.200 Now, doesn't that sound ridiculous?

00:20:00.400 If you don't believe democracy was at risk,

00:20:03.940 that doesn't even register as a thing, does it?

00:20:07.540 If you're a Republican and you know the January 6th stuff was all bullshit,

00:20:12.340 not even once did you think that democracy was at risk, did you?

00:20:16.180 So you didn't take that seriously, did you?

00:20:19.240 I didn't.

00:20:20.120 Every time I heard it, I'd be like,

00:20:21.340 okay, nobody's going to take that seriously.

00:20:23.460 But I was sort of in my bubble, wasn't I?

00:20:27.420 How many people would it take to take that seriously before the red wave goes away?

00:20:33.300 Not many.

00:20:34.920 If 5% of Democrats believed they were going to lose the thing they valued the most,

00:20:41.820 freedom, democracy.

00:20:44.340 It would only take 5% of them to be afraid that they were literally going to lose it.

00:20:49.180 Do you think that 5% of the low-T men who were Democrats were literally afraid of losing democracy?

00:20:58.400 I do.

00:20:59.960 I do.

00:21:01.480 I don't think most of them were seriously afraid.

00:21:05.600 About 5%.

00:21:06.640 Yeah, absolutely.

00:21:07.920 Do you think that 5% of Republicans had some fear of, like, losing a thing?

00:21:15.020 I don't think so.

00:21:15.920 I think they all thought they were going to get something.

00:21:19.200 Republicans all went into the midterms thinking, yay, we're getting stuff.

00:21:23.900 But they weren't afraid of losing stuff, were they?

00:21:26.840 Now, you could say, yeah, inflation, you know, losing their guns.

00:21:31.740 But gun control wasn't even an issue, was it?

00:21:35.200 Gun control just disappeared as an issue.

00:21:38.120 If the Democrats had pushed gun control as their number one issue, what would have happened?

00:21:42.500 They would have lost bigger.

00:21:47.420 Yeah, because that would be taking something away from Republicans.

00:21:51.860 What happens when you say we're going to take something away from Republicans?

00:21:56.120 They'll do anything to stop it.

00:21:58.980 Because nobody wants to lose what they have.

00:22:01.240 So, correct me if I'm wrong, if you look at the demographics of the two groups, you can see that fear would be more effective in one group, and fear is the most important in persuasion.

00:22:15.320 Did the Democrats try to activate that fear?

00:22:18.840 Did they tell you you're losing your democracy, you're losing your freedom of your bodily autonomy?

00:22:24.980 Yeah, they did.

00:22:25.480 Did you, as a Republican, take any of that seriously because you thought, that's not going to work?

00:22:33.920 Probably you didn't take it too seriously.

00:22:37.080 But that's because you didn't believe it, right?

00:22:41.180 They actually believed they were going to lose these things.

00:22:46.200 Now, abortion's kind of a gray area because the states get to decide, so maybe nobody will lose anything, at least in terms of the majority.

00:22:53.860 But certainly, they had the feeling that they lost something, right?

00:22:58.840 If you're a Democrat, it doesn't matter that it's up to the states.

00:23:02.500 They can't feel that.

00:23:04.120 What they feel is it's harder to get an abortion.

00:23:06.980 They feel that.

00:23:08.060 They lost something.

00:23:11.220 Yeah, and the January 6th thing probably did make it a little bit credible that they could lose their democracy.

00:23:18.580 Here's a big hidden danger.

00:23:20.720 Here, the polls were unreliable, right?

00:23:25.640 So the polls before the election didn't get it right.

00:23:29.460 What is more dangerous than the polls not agreeing with the outcomes of elections?

00:23:35.860 That is like the most dangerous situation, isn't it?

00:23:39.340 Because you've got people who are wondering about the credibility of the election.

00:23:42.460 And at this point, you know, we're happy that justice is blind.

00:23:49.220 We like it that justice, you know, isn't a bigot.

00:23:52.620 Justice is blind.

00:23:54.380 But now we have democracy is blind.

00:23:58.380 Democracy is blind because we don't have a system where we know what happens when the vote gets into the computers.

00:24:05.300 It's a little bit blind there.

00:24:07.880 But now we're blind because the polls don't even tell you, okay, if the outcome and the polls were close, probably it was a fair election.

00:24:16.360 But what if they're not close?

00:24:18.580 What if the polls say, oh, it's going to be a red wave and then the actuality is nothing even close?

00:24:22.940 At that point, it's easy to rig elections because the public doesn't expect the polls and the outcomes to match.

00:24:31.460 The moment the public doesn't think polls and outcomes should match, because they've seen enough examples where they don't, kind of like a weather report, right?

00:24:41.380 We don't really expect the weather forecast for next week to be necessarily accurate.

00:24:48.000 It might be better than 50%, but, you know, your expectations are not that high.

00:24:55.340 Well, here's the good news.

00:24:58.320 And I see on Twitter just the smallest amount of quibbling about, you know, some election integrity stuff.

00:25:09.140 You know, mostly just about Arizona, Maricopa.

00:25:12.920 But I think Maricopa is the closest watched, you know, election segment in the whole country, especially because it had problems.

00:25:22.260 So I think there are plenty of people watching it.

00:25:24.720 And however that turns out, it doesn't affect most of the results, one way or the other.

00:25:32.860 But we've survived.

00:25:34.300 And it looks like we're not going to have a huge election integrity problem, would you say?

00:25:40.240 As of today, does it look like there won't be any major risk to the democracy so far?

00:25:51.840 Yeah.

00:25:53.040 All right.

00:25:53.840 Now, here are the reasons you're going to hear in the regular pundit press today.

00:26:00.860 Everybody's going to have to tell you why the results didn't come out the way you thought.

00:26:04.540 Some people are going to say the quality of the candidate mattered.

00:26:12.880 But does the quality of the candidate matter every time?

00:26:17.280 I would argue that the quality of the candidate matters only if everything else doesn't.

00:26:24.500 The quality of the candidate matters only if everything else doesn't matter.

00:26:29.920 So if you're, if the control of the Congress is at risk, then the quality of the candidate doesn't make any difference at all.

00:26:39.860 None.

00:26:40.660 When the Democrats needed to get Trump out of office, did the quality of the candidate matter?

00:26:47.080 Nope.

00:26:48.060 Didn't matter at all.

00:26:49.440 So everybody who says the quality of the candidate matters, they're right, unless there's some other thing that matters more.

00:26:57.000 Now, so, which makes it almost worthless, right?

00:27:01.180 Isn't the Yogi Berra famous saying, good pitching beats good hitting, and vice versa?

00:27:10.860 Is that Yogi Berra or somebody else?

00:27:13.200 But the thinking is that, and let me say that again, a good candidate can overcome almost any situation.

00:27:23.780 You know, that's what Trump did.

00:27:24.680 He was a good candidate in the first election.

00:27:27.900 Right?

00:27:28.860 But more money can overcome any candidate.

00:27:33.680 So there's an amount of money that can overcome any candidate, but there's also a quality of a candidate that can overcome almost any money.

00:27:41.800 So when you see the pundits say, well, it's the candidate that matters, the little recording in your head should say, unless it's a close race and the Congress is up for, you know, unless there's a lot of money, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

00:27:57.760 And it also depends who you're running against, right?

00:28:01.100 Would Fetterman have won against a more traditional candidate than Oz?

00:28:07.020 Oz didn't get Oprah's endorsement.

00:28:11.000 Now, do you think that Oprah makes a difference when she makes an endorsement?

00:28:19.340 How much do endorsements normally matter?

00:28:22.360 Sometimes they matter a little.

00:28:23.600 But I feel like the Oprah endorsement is like, might be the only one that matters from a celebrity.

00:28:30.980 Remember, Oprah can sell books.

00:28:33.820 Do you know who else can sell books by recommending them?

00:28:37.160 Almost nobody.

00:28:38.820 Almost nobody.

00:28:39.600 If anybody else could sell books like she does, they'd all be doing it because that would give you some power or you could get some, you know, benefits from the books that are sold, etc.

00:28:49.240 But Oprah has an unusual ability to move her own audience.

00:28:54.100 And her own audience is who?

00:28:56.660 Who is the audience for Oprah?

00:28:59.820 Women.

00:29:00.700 Women.

00:29:02.040 And probably younger ones.

00:29:04.300 I don't know if it's younger ones, but it might be.

00:29:06.160 All right.

00:29:07.760 So, yeah, I think Oprah actually mattered.

00:29:12.280 I literally don't care who won.

00:29:15.900 I know you don't want to hear that.

00:29:17.600 I don't care at all.

00:29:18.840 And I told you that in advance.

00:29:20.200 You know why, right?

00:29:21.580 I'm a one-issue voter, and nobody had a fentanyl plan that was good.

00:29:28.120 You know, some of them were, you know, tighten up the border, but that's just basic stuff.

00:29:32.140 That's something you need to do.

00:29:33.500 It doesn't get you anywhere close to stopping fentanyl.

00:29:36.500 So, if the Republicans don't have an anti-fentanyl plan and the Democrats don't, I don't give a fuck which one of them won.

00:29:45.340 Don't care at all.

00:29:46.940 Honestly, don't.

00:29:47.580 But I'd like to give a shout-out to Twitter user Dodger Dave.

00:29:57.420 Dodger Dave.

00:29:58.020 I know he follows me on Twitter, but I don't know if you're watching this.

00:30:01.820 But Dodger Dave reported on Twitter today that he's been off of fentanyl for one year.

00:30:07.140 One year today.

00:30:08.020 So, if anybody would like to congratulate him on Twitter, please do.

00:30:14.160 He's going to need all the help he can get.

00:30:17.480 But this is a real accomplishment, by the way.

00:30:22.480 When you hear somebody like, you know, he overcame odds to run for Senate, and you won the Senate, you're like, hey, that's a strong person there.

00:30:31.480 You know, Carrie Lake, there's a strong person.

00:30:34.020 She's overcoming odds to maybe win.

00:30:36.360 We don't know yet.

00:30:37.440 But none of that comes close to Dodger Dave.

00:30:41.380 Dodger Dave got off fucking fentanyl.

00:30:43.760 This is the strongest guy you know.

00:30:49.580 Like, I wouldn't want to be in a fight with Dodger Dave.

00:30:53.440 I wouldn't want to be in a contest with Dodger Dave where whoever could take the most pain was going to win the contest.

00:31:01.360 Dodger Dave's got the goods.

00:31:03.120 So, he made it a year.

00:31:05.120 So, keep going.

00:31:05.820 Trump made a joke, and a third of the country either pretended they didn't get it or wanted to act like they don't or don't know what a joke is.

00:31:17.040 So, prior to the election, Trump was asked if he would take, you know, credit for his candidates he endorsed winning if they did.

00:31:25.800 And he said, quote, with a smile.

00:31:28.680 So, you have to understand he said this with a clear smile that says I'm joking.

00:31:32.460 And he said, well, I think if they win, meaning his candidates, if they win, I should get all the credit.

00:31:39.800 If they lose, I should not be blamed at all.

00:31:43.860 And then later he, you know, he confirmed the point that everybody acts that way.

00:31:50.800 You know, everybody acts that they take credit when they win and they take no responsibility when they lose.

00:31:55.660 And he made the point that that's what everybody does.

00:31:58.680 Right.

00:31:58.820 But when he first answered it about himself, what did the Democrats say?

00:32:05.400 Oh, my God.

00:32:07.300 The ego on that man.

00:32:09.800 The narcissism of that man.

00:32:11.860 That if he wins, he takes credit.

00:32:13.720 But if he doesn't win, he doesn't take credit.

00:32:15.980 My God, the ego, the narcissist, everything we thought about him was right.

00:32:20.860 To which I say, he was mocking his own ego.

00:32:26.140 That was the joke.

00:32:29.480 The joke was he was making fun of himself, that he would take credit for something that clearly, you know, might be a random occurrence.

00:32:39.180 That was obviously making fun of his own narcissism.

00:32:44.100 And they couldn't tell the difference.

00:32:45.520 Or they pretend they couldn't.

00:32:48.240 But I saw a lot of comments where it really looked like they couldn't tell the difference.

00:32:52.320 They actually thought that was narcissism.

00:32:54.440 I've argued with you before that he might be closer to the opposite.

00:33:00.260 Because he puts his ego out there where it's just trashed every day by his critics.

00:33:05.280 Most people couldn't handle that.

00:33:08.200 But he can.

00:33:09.600 So apparently he's got some kind of control over his ego where he can mock himself.

00:33:14.340 And he can still make the joke after the fact.

00:33:17.160 You know, if his people had won, he would have taken full credit.

00:33:21.360 And he would have done it with a smile.

00:33:23.660 And those who knew him would have known, oh, he doesn't mean it.

00:33:26.760 Or maybe he does a little bit.

00:33:28.420 But he knows he's having fun with it, right?

00:33:30.720 You would know he was having fun with it.

00:33:32.360 Somebody says, but your record, not good.

00:33:37.520 Well, your record, not good.

00:33:39.360 You're talking about me?

00:33:41.260 Anybody who tells me my prediction record is not good

00:33:44.300 means that they only know about some of my predictions.

00:33:48.260 Generally, that's all it means.

00:33:51.340 I don't even know if my record is good.

00:33:53.080 But I know that the people who say it's bad

00:33:54.820 are never aware of my actual record.

00:34:00.520 Mike Zernovich.

00:34:02.360 He said this on Twitter today after the results are mostly in.

00:34:07.100 He said, Trump has zero shot at 2024 general.

00:34:10.960 After tonight, this isn't up for debate.

00:34:14.120 I was around in 2015 when he had, quote, no chance

00:34:17.320 and accurately said he'd win.

00:34:20.080 True statement.

00:34:22.000 And he threw the biggest inauguration event in 2017.

00:34:24.860 But he says times change or he changed or whatever.

00:34:28.260 But it's time to move on.

00:34:33.220 What do you think?

00:34:34.600 Let me poll you before I give you my opinion.

00:34:38.140 Does Trump now have zero chance of winning?

00:34:41.640 Because he's going to get blamed for the midterms.

00:34:45.940 Because he promoted some candidates that lost.

00:34:49.360 And maybe it was their loyalty to him that was his main consideration.

00:34:55.460 And that's how it's going to be interpreted.

00:34:57.880 Right?

00:34:57.980 A lot of people saying zero.

00:35:03.440 Okay.

00:35:04.480 Now, everybody who has said zero.

00:35:06.440 Hold on for a second.

00:35:07.440 Hold your answers for a second.

00:35:09.320 So everybody who says zero.

00:35:10.940 Who would you vote for if he's running against a Democrat?

00:35:17.420 Who would you vote for?

00:35:19.840 Would you not vote for him?

00:35:21.360 You'd vote for the Democrat?

00:35:23.980 How many of you will now vote for the Democrat no matter who it is?

00:35:27.820 If Trump is the other one?

00:35:30.280 Nobody.

00:35:31.160 Nobody.

00:35:32.180 Yeah.

00:35:32.580 Everybody who says Trump has zero chance.

00:35:35.460 Totally wrong.

00:35:36.780 You're totally wrong.

00:35:38.480 Yeah.

00:35:38.660 Now, I don't normally disagree with Mike Cernovich.

00:35:45.100 You've probably noticed that, right?

00:35:46.880 I'm going to agree with him most of the time.

00:35:49.260 But one thing you need to know about him is he's one of the strongest persuaders in the country.

00:35:56.760 His persuasion game, his actual technical knowledge of how to do it, is one of the best in the country.

00:36:02.000 So, in the political context, he's persuading as well as giving you his opinion.

00:36:09.200 And sometimes it's more persuasion and sometimes it's more opinion.

00:36:13.680 And it's a little hard to know with people who are good at it.

00:36:17.380 It's a little hard to know exactly when they're doing what.

00:36:19.700 But I think this is more persuasion than prediction.

00:36:26.840 Would you agree?

00:36:28.320 Because two years is a long time.

00:36:31.540 Do you know it's a long time?

00:36:33.540 A week.

00:36:35.540 Everything you know about everything could be wrong in a week.

00:36:39.240 Am I right?

00:36:39.920 Everything we knew about the midterms was wrong today.

00:36:44.020 In 24 hours, everything you knew about politics changed.

00:36:47.620 Am I right?

00:36:48.980 Everything you knew about politics just changed in one day.

00:36:53.040 So, if you say that Trump can't win based on what's happening today,

00:36:57.660 I think that ignores the function of time and what we've observed for quite a while now,

00:37:05.040 which is things can change radically and quickly and, you know, you don't predict it.

00:37:10.840 So, yes, he could win.

00:37:13.860 All right, now here's the second question.

00:37:16.200 Can win doesn't mean will win.

00:37:18.580 Can mean does not mean will.

00:37:21.740 If DeSantis primaried him, which I'm not going to predict.

00:37:27.340 I don't predict it.

00:37:28.900 I don't rule it out, but I don't predict it.

00:37:31.260 So, remember I said that.

00:37:32.760 I don't rule it out, but I don't predict it.

00:37:34.620 That's a hard one.

00:37:36.640 Because you could imagine DeSantis getting enough pressure

00:37:39.460 that even if he had decided not to, maybe he could change his mind.

00:37:44.300 You know, good of the country, it's the right time sort of thing.

00:37:48.260 But do you think he could primary Trump successfully?

00:37:52.960 No.

00:37:54.440 Who would win in the primary, DeSantis or Trump?

00:37:58.660 DeSantis or Trump in the primaries?

00:38:03.140 Most of you are saying Trump.

00:38:05.540 It looks like about two-thirds or more saying Trump.

00:38:09.460 Now it's evening out.

00:38:12.120 It's hard to tell just by the answers.

00:38:14.100 All right, so it's mixed.

00:38:15.680 It's mixed.

00:38:17.140 All right, here's the answer.

00:38:18.680 They both could win.

00:38:20.460 Yeah, I think that was not as obvious as anybody thinks.

00:38:23.780 They both could win.

00:38:24.880 The way that DeSantis could win is to say,

00:38:29.760 I'm Trump without the bad parts.

00:38:32.940 And then it's just over.

00:38:35.240 Then it's just over.

00:38:36.300 Now, I'm not saying that's a true statement or that you should believe it.

00:38:43.080 Because Trump does have some things which are unmatchable.

00:38:46.960 Right?

00:38:47.160 Trump is a little unmatchable in some categories of things.

00:38:50.860 But if that was the pitch, if DeSantis says, look, I'll give you all the good of Trump,

00:38:57.820 but without the downside, I think he just walks to the nomination.

00:39:02.880 I think if he played it that way, he just walks into the nomination.

00:39:09.880 Honestly.

00:39:10.840 I don't even think he would be close.

00:39:12.860 But I don't think he would play it that way.

00:39:15.520 I think he'd play it more traditionally, and then it's anybody's guess.

00:39:22.740 He already is.

00:39:27.540 Yeah, and the fact that our elections are always close,

00:39:32.880 this was really, probably this was the greatest affirmation of democracy that I've ever seen.

00:39:43.220 Would you agree?

00:39:45.060 I feel like, you know, our system just totally showed itself as strong.

00:39:52.980 And once again, you know, big applause for the founders,

00:39:58.480 who hundreds of years ago built a system to last the test of time,

00:40:02.880 and it did.

00:40:05.040 So far, so good.

00:40:06.700 I think that our republic is as strong as it's been in a long time,

00:40:12.560 like right today.

00:40:14.060 This is actually a really, really positive thing,

00:40:16.840 because not only did the Republicans find some humility,

00:40:21.800 but I think everybody did.

00:40:23.640 The one thing that everybody needed, both the Republicans and Democrats,

00:40:30.620 and Scott needs this too,

00:40:33.420 and all of the public, all the pundits, right?

00:40:36.620 So I'm in this category I'm going to criticize.

00:40:39.840 You know what we all needed?

00:40:41.860 There's one thing we all needed.

00:40:43.680 A big old dose of humility.

00:40:49.260 That's what we all needed, right?

00:40:51.940 We all needed to be a little bit wrong,

00:40:54.540 and just have it slapped in our faces, right?

00:40:57.440 So everybody got to be a little bit wrong on this one.

00:41:00.620 Here's how the Democrats are wrong.

00:41:02.240 The strongest governors won easily, right?

00:41:10.220 The governors who handled things like Republicans

00:41:13.640 and had real plans and, you know, real, like, solid policy things,

00:41:20.280 DeSantis being one, Abbott being another,

00:41:22.960 I guess, what's his name in Georgia?

00:41:27.040 Georgia governor is Kemp.

00:41:29.580 Yeah, so those three governors are being held out as good models.

00:41:37.120 So if you're a Democrat, you look at those three governors and you say,

00:41:41.780 uh-oh, and Youngkin?

00:41:43.820 Youngkin's another example.

00:41:45.160 Yeah, four governors, let's say.

00:41:46.760 You would look at those governors and say, uh-oh,

00:41:49.680 every time somebody acts like a good Republican, they win big.

00:41:53.980 How about that?

00:41:55.800 The people who actually act like real Republicans,

00:41:58.200 Republicans, not crazy Republicans,

00:42:01.200 you know, not extreme Republicans,

00:42:02.820 not Marjorie Taylor Greene.

00:42:05.320 I'm not criticizing her.

00:42:06.680 I'm just saying that she's in that wing, right?

00:42:10.600 So if you're a Democrat, you need to have some humility

00:42:14.220 that when a Republican acts like a Republican,

00:42:18.080 without the crazy shit, they win hard, right?

00:42:23.040 Being just a normal, capable Republican governor,

00:42:28.480 you don't just win.

00:42:30.260 You win with, like, a punch.

00:42:34.140 It's like a win plus.

00:42:35.660 It's not even close.

00:42:36.960 But then you throw the crazy shit in and what happens?

00:42:40.340 Not so easy, right?

00:42:41.860 You throw in Dr. Oz,

00:42:44.120 and he's not exactly a traditional Republican, is he?

00:42:49.340 You're not quite sure what you're getting there.

00:42:51.740 There's this little mix of stuff.

00:42:54.820 A mix, you know, his background has some sketchy stuff,

00:42:57.980 according to people.

00:43:00.680 What's crazy about Oz is some of his,

00:43:04.220 let's say, things he's promoted in his entertainment career.

00:43:08.320 Now, I don't necessarily think that should haunt him,

00:43:12.260 because that's a different kind of job.

00:43:14.260 But it is.

00:43:15.180 I think it does.

00:43:16.120 I think it leads to the not serious feeling.

00:43:21.160 You look at DeSantis,

00:43:22.360 and do you say he's serious or not serious?

00:43:26.540 DeSantis is as serious as a heart attack.

00:43:29.280 You look at Abbott.

00:43:30.880 Is Abbott a serious politician or not serious?

00:43:33.280 He's serious.

00:43:34.540 That's a serious guy, right?

00:43:36.440 Right, those are serious people.

00:43:39.980 But you look at Oz,

00:43:41.540 and as serious as he may be about politics at the moment,

00:43:45.120 you don't get the same feeling about him, right?

00:43:47.960 It feels a little more opportunistic, would you say?

00:43:51.820 A little opportunistic?

00:43:53.700 Which is nothing wrong with that.

00:43:55.480 By the way, if you're not opportunistic, why aren't you?

00:43:58.400 You should all be opportunistic.

00:44:00.620 You know, that's our system.

00:44:01.860 Play it.

00:44:02.580 Play it the way it was designed.

00:44:04.120 Be opportunistic.

00:44:04.440 But it might not look good.

00:44:07.160 It might not look good as it looks.

00:44:10.360 Yeah, is Masters done,

00:44:14.140 or does he still have a chance with what's uncounted?

00:44:18.140 Is Blake Masters done?

00:44:20.620 That race hasn't been called, right?

00:44:23.160 Because there's still some small chance

00:44:24.920 that the remaining votes go his way.

00:44:27.520 Small chance.

00:44:28.660 Not looking good.

00:44:29.420 All right.

00:44:31.180 Do you think that Trump made the quality of candidates not matter?

00:44:49.900 I think a little bit he did.

00:44:51.560 And what I mean by that is the, what Trump did was maybe solidify the team play aspect more than anybody else did.

00:45:04.780 You could imagine, you know, 20 years ago, you could imagine a Republican or Democrat just voting for the other team because they like that candidate.

00:45:12.760 It's easy to imagine a Democrat voting for Reagan, right?

00:45:17.640 That's pretty easy to imagine.

00:45:19.440 And it worked.

00:45:20.980 But Trump came in and he basically, you know, made it blood war.

00:45:25.640 So being on the side of the blood enemy, that doesn't work the same.

00:45:31.800 Right?

00:45:32.260 Reagan liked everybody.

00:45:33.520 And so it was okay to be on his team, even if he didn't like 100% of what he was doing.

00:45:39.120 Trump is so polarizing that I think people just voted for their team.

00:45:45.080 So I think that the team play nature of things just eliminated the quality of the candidate,

00:45:51.700 except, remember, you know, good pitching beats good hitting and vice versa.

00:45:56.940 Except where the candidate was so strong, like the Republican governors we mentioned,

00:46:02.840 where the candidate was so strong that nothing else mattered.

00:46:06.580 And people said, oh, okay, I can get behind that.

00:46:10.480 All right.

00:46:13.600 Rasmussen said that 25% of the people they polled say that the late results make them more confident that the election is fair.

00:46:26.940 25% say that when you don't immediately have a result, like every country in the world can do,

00:46:35.080 that that's probably an indicator that things are more secure than you thought.

00:46:43.240 25%.

00:46:43.840 Sometimes that's called like one quarter.

00:46:49.340 I don't know.

00:46:50.400 Why does that number keep popping up?

00:46:51.680 Anyway, here's the most unexpected, but not really, story of the day that has nothing to do with this,

00:47:03.220 but we'll get back to it.

00:47:05.280 Remember, Alan Dershowitz was accused by one of the Epstein victim young women?

00:47:11.780 And the victim young woman who has been accusing Dershowitz of sexual impropriety for years today recanted her accusation.

00:47:26.820 She fully recanted her accusation.

00:47:31.300 What?

00:47:32.200 Yeah, exactly.

00:47:33.400 Exactly.

00:47:35.320 I'm watching the comments over at Locals, and the people are like, what?

00:47:39.140 What?

00:47:40.700 What?

00:47:41.700 What the fuck?

00:47:44.160 Now, does recanting her accusation mean that it wasn't true?

00:47:51.660 It doesn't, right?

00:47:53.440 It doesn't.

00:47:54.460 It doesn't mean it wasn't true.

00:47:56.400 But I'm going to pat myself on the back for something, if you don't mind.

00:48:01.300 All right.

00:48:03.500 When many of you were basically saying, you know, Dershowitz is dead to you because of those accusations,

00:48:11.780 I said, I said, he has an unusually strong defense, and you better wait.

00:48:19.520 You better wait on this one.

00:48:21.560 Because he's not hedging.

00:48:23.300 He went right at it.

00:48:24.780 He went at it like a maniac.

00:48:27.560 Do you know how he defended himself?

00:48:29.440 He defended himself like an innocent person.

00:48:33.820 Now, remember, he's smart enough to know how to play it psychologically and leave the right impression.

00:48:38.720 But he defended himself like an innocent person.

00:48:42.380 And the claims that he made in his defense sounded so weak that they actually sounded real.

00:48:51.820 You know what I mean?

00:48:52.500 Like, if you made up a defense, it might sound a little stronger.

00:48:57.040 But he had that, yeah, she did give me a massage, but I left my underpants on.

00:49:01.400 And you're saying, that's not like the strongest defense.

00:49:05.120 But that's actually why it sounded real to me.

00:49:07.920 It sounded real to me because who would say that?

00:49:11.400 That's like, the better defense would be, we didn't have a massage.

00:49:15.140 Right?

00:49:15.480 If you were just going to lie, you know, maybe you'd lie differently.

00:49:20.460 Now, none of that says he was innocent.

00:49:22.900 So let me be clear.

00:49:24.720 I don't know.

00:49:25.860 I have no idea who did anything.

00:49:28.220 But I'll tell you, Dershowitz is the person who fights for your ability to be innocent until proven guilty.

00:49:35.240 That's who he is.

00:49:38.460 He fights for your ability to be innocent until proven guilty.

00:49:41.940 So I returned the favor.

00:49:44.440 I returned the favor.

00:49:46.600 Again, it has nothing to do with any knowledge I would have about who did or did not do anything.

00:49:51.320 How would I know?

00:49:53.140 But in our system, in our system, I'm going to favor the system over the individual results.

00:50:00.200 Because you've got to keep the system strong.

00:50:02.260 And this was one of those innocent until proven guilty things that I was kind of a maniac about, honestly.

00:50:09.860 Like, I didn't know which way it would go.

00:50:12.100 But I'm a total maniac about the guy who helps keep your ability to be innocent until proven guilty.

00:50:18.340 That's who he is.

00:50:20.020 And he's very consistent about that.

00:50:21.900 Always has been.

00:50:22.920 So I respect that.

00:50:24.340 And I returned the favor.

00:50:25.840 Which has nothing to do with any other thing he may or may not do now.

00:50:29.420 It's just about the system.

00:50:30.520 So, I hope, I hope, I hope this is the right outcome.

00:50:36.780 I hope.

00:50:38.700 But it's another reminder that everything you think is true, no matter how sure you are that it's true, you don't really know.

00:50:48.420 Don't really know.

00:50:49.200 I gave a warning last night that I thought was going to be important, but maybe it isn't, which is the same warning I gave at 2020, which is everything you hear about maybe there's some impropriety in the election, that 95% of it, at least, at least 95% of it would be total bullshit.

00:51:09.620 I'm still at that number, yeah, because you've heard some things like, oh, what about this, what about that?

00:51:17.420 I think it's all bullshit so far, which is not to say there's no cheating.

00:51:23.840 I would never say that.

00:51:24.900 There's just no way to know.

00:51:25.780 But what you hear, the things that get surfaced, are 95% bullshit.

00:51:31.560 So, if you hear something that sounds really, really credible about some election shenanigans, it might be true, but that shouldn't be your assumption.

00:51:42.020 You should start with the assumption, very unlikely, but be open to the possibility.

00:51:47.220 Be open to the possibility.

00:51:48.640 Just don't believe in any Krakens like I did.

00:51:51.520 Don't be a Kraken believer.

00:51:54.360 Be a Kraken denier until it's proven.

00:51:58.160 All right, but it looks like there isn't, so far, I'm not seeing a lot of claims of fraud.

00:52:05.680 Am I looking in the wrong places?

00:52:08.220 Is there anybody on television who's claiming fraud?

00:52:10.920 Has Trump weighed in and said the election was rigged?

00:52:16.100 Because Trump would have already said something, wouldn't he?

00:52:19.680 Because they're going to ask him.

00:52:21.220 Trump's going to be asked.

00:52:23.080 So, Carrie Lake is saying something is suspicious.

00:52:26.120 I don't know what she's saying, but here's what I'll bet, without even knowing what she's saying.

00:52:32.120 I'll bet what she's saying is, you know, we need to be careful and take a look at this.

00:52:38.280 I'll bet she's not saying it's definitely rigged.

00:52:41.920 Because she would be way too smart to say that, right?

00:52:45.400 Confirm that.

00:52:46.680 She's way too smart to say the election is rigged.

00:52:49.380 But she's definitely smart enough to say, we need to take a look at why things didn't go as planned, and that's important.

00:52:56.980 You know, the election was kind of, you know, botched.

00:53:01.780 Right?

00:53:02.080 Yeah, so if she says the election was botched, that's right.

00:53:06.780 If she says she got cheated out of the victory, that would be too far with what information we have.

00:53:21.380 All right.

00:53:23.780 So, here are all the different things you're going to hear from the pundits who got everything wrong up to this point.

00:53:34.080 They're going to say the good candidates won.

00:53:36.920 They're going to say spending was the difference.

00:53:39.720 Some might say cheating, I suppose.

00:53:42.320 Some might say the rule changes.

00:53:44.060 Some might say the GOP had no solutions.

00:53:48.780 Did you notice that the GOP didn't have solutions?

00:53:53.520 Well, it turns out they did.

00:53:55.320 They had this whole commitment to America thing today.

00:53:58.860 Let me tell you what I remember from reading the commitment to America.

00:54:04.420 And now I'm done.

00:54:06.720 Those are all the things I remember from my reading of the commitment to America.

00:54:11.480 Do you know when I learned that there's a commitment to America document?

00:54:14.980 I learned that after the election.

00:54:18.780 All I do is watch the news.

00:54:23.800 That's all I fucking do is watch the news all day.

00:54:27.540 I didn't know.

00:54:28.720 I didn't know the Republicans had a written plan.

00:54:31.480 Did you?

00:54:32.980 Yeah.

00:54:33.300 First year hearing of it.

00:54:34.960 Now, I feel like I have this vague memory that Rick Scott had something,

00:54:41.580 but it was different from what the Republicans had as sort of a platformy thing.

00:54:45.880 But I just thought it was some generic platformy thing.

00:54:48.440 I didn't think it was anything serious.

00:54:52.040 Fox talks about it all the time.

00:54:55.940 Do they?

00:54:58.000 I haven't heard any details.

00:54:59.920 What were the details?

00:55:02.040 Refund police?

00:55:03.700 I don't know.

00:55:04.020 Well, here's one of my blind spots I had until right before the election.

00:55:10.700 I sort of tuned into this on election day, but not soon enough.

00:55:15.820 That the Republicans were not giving a positive story.

00:55:22.040 They were sort of assuming that you knew that they did a better job,

00:55:28.960 because you could see that things were bad under the Democrats.

00:55:31.920 But I guess people were not making the leap from things are bad to Republicans have a better idea.

00:55:36.840 I think they do have a better idea, but they didn't make the argument.

00:55:44.300 Yeah, and Rick Scott made them afraid that Social Security was on the line, right?

00:55:49.560 Whether it was or not, it was enough to get them afraid of it.

00:55:53.320 So, what is the biggest persuasion?

00:55:56.140 Fear.

00:55:57.500 Who had the better fear of persuasion?

00:55:59.880 The Democrats did.

00:56:04.400 Was it really about Trump?

00:56:07.700 How much of the election was really about getting rid of all Trump supporters?

00:56:12.720 It makes you sure there's less chance that Trump would get elected.

00:56:16.980 Probably some of it.

00:56:18.140 But I think people's minds are framed by Trump, so that you can't not consider him.

00:56:25.340 It's impossible not to consider him.

00:56:27.960 How about the mega-mega-extremist claim made by Biden?

00:56:34.400 Did it work?

00:56:35.900 The mega-mega, they're all extremists, and Marjorie Taylor Greene,

00:56:40.580 and those are the ones you have to watch out for.

00:56:42.800 I thought it wouldn't, because it wasn't working on me.

00:56:49.440 Like when I hear, blah, blah, extremists, I go, blah, blah, blah, I don't even care.

00:56:54.460 But, remember, the demographic that is more Democrat is younger women.

00:57:02.620 And as we discussed, in case you missed it,

00:57:05.420 science says very clearly that women are easier to scare.

00:57:09.280 They're easier to frighten.

00:57:10.160 So, do you think that women were afraid of losing democracy

00:57:17.260 and the mega-mega-extremists, and they'd lose their bodily autonomy and stuff?

00:57:24.280 Probably yes.

00:57:26.080 And the low-T males, again, this is not a judgment statement.

00:57:30.940 I'm not saying there's something wrong with you because you have lower testosterone.

00:57:34.940 It's just different.

00:57:35.700 But those differences do translate into, you know, mental states and actions.

00:57:43.060 How about, apparently the Democrats are getting credit for their crazy-sounding strategy

00:57:50.160 of boosting the worst candidates on the Republican side

00:57:54.200 so that the primaries were won by the worst, you know, extremists,

00:57:59.460 and then they lost their elections.

00:58:00.920 But apparently that worked.

00:58:01.860 Is that what happened?

00:58:06.640 Did that happen with Oz?

00:58:09.280 Was Oz backed by the secret, dark Democrat money?

00:58:15.140 Yeah, Marjorie Taylor Greene won,

00:58:17.960 as did probably a lot of the people who were...

00:58:20.640 AOC and the squad all won by big numbers, too.

00:58:23.580 The people who were in safe districts all won.

00:58:25.800 That has just more to do with the district.

00:58:31.460 How about, do you think the GOP stayed home because they thought they were going to win?

00:58:38.020 What do you think of the theory that Republicans didn't turn out because they were confident of winning?

00:58:43.560 I don't feel that.

00:58:45.820 I don't feel it.

00:58:48.840 Yeah, it's possible.

00:58:50.360 I could be persuaded, but that wasn't the energy I was picking up.

00:58:56.920 I was picking up Republicans vote for fun and for principle.

00:59:04.520 Republicans don't vote or not vote because it's convenient.

00:59:09.240 Am I right?

00:59:10.200 In fact, you could define Republicans as people who are going to vote no matter how hard you make it.

00:59:17.740 They're going to fucking vote because it's important.

00:59:20.640 It's a principle.

00:59:23.120 I don't know if it's the same on both sides.

00:59:26.560 It might be.

00:59:27.760 But I don't see Republicans staying home because it rained.

00:59:32.560 Yeah, maybe.

00:59:35.460 All right.

00:59:36.080 The best predictors, in my opinion, were follow the money and persuasion of fear, the persuasion of losing something, abortion rights, bodily autonomy, losing your democracy.

00:59:52.160 Those were good, good approaches by the Democrats, it turns out.

00:59:57.180 And it was a little bit invisible to me because that persuasion wasn't intended for me and it didn't work on me.

01:00:06.680 So I was a little bit, I was blinded by the fact that it was designed for a certain demographic and it worked.

01:00:13.120 It worked on that demographic, I think.

01:00:16.120 And then what about the high ground maneuver?

01:00:18.840 That's the fourth thing that I talk about all the time, which you can never lose.

01:00:24.020 If you take the high ground, you win every conversation.

01:00:28.980 I'll give you an example.

01:00:30.440 We should do A.

01:00:31.720 No, we should do B.

01:00:33.200 And then somebody else in the meeting says, can we test both of those things cheaply?

01:00:38.520 And both the people go, yes.

01:00:42.500 And then the smart person says, well, why don't we just test both of them and we'll do the one that works better.

01:00:48.340 That's the high ground.

01:00:49.380 Once you hear it, you just stop arguing because you would sound like an idiot after you'd heard of the high ground, right?

01:00:56.340 Was there any high ground?

01:00:58.220 Did anybody have the high ground in this election?

01:01:01.940 Well, maybe a little bit.

01:01:04.500 Maybe a little bit.

01:01:05.560 Because I think the high ground was protect the democracy.

01:01:09.240 It was bullshit, but it does sound like the bigger principle, doesn't it?

01:01:13.780 If I gave you a choice to get exactly the right candidates you want, well, you might lose democracy itself.

01:01:23.620 That's not a good deal for me, right?

01:01:26.160 So preserving the system actually is a pretty good high ground.

01:01:30.880 And the Democrats had it.

01:01:32.600 They actually had the high ground, weirdly.

01:01:35.560 The low ground was I might get mugged on the street, right?

01:01:39.960 I might get mugged on the street is real.

01:01:43.820 That's like frickin' real.

01:01:45.480 That's a real, immediate, personal, local fear.

01:01:50.780 But it's also not the high ground.

01:01:53.300 It isn't.

01:01:54.700 The high ground is the whole country.

01:01:57.140 That's just bigger than your little problem on the street.

01:02:00.820 So the Democrats had that.

01:02:02.440 They had the high ground.

01:02:03.940 And January 6th was probably the key to holding that.

01:02:08.500 Now, again, I was a little bit blind to that because it didn't work on me, right?

01:02:15.400 So that's the persuasion you miss when it doesn't work on you personally.

01:02:20.420 It was easier to see Trump coming because his persuasion was working on me.

01:02:26.640 You know what I mean?

01:02:27.920 If you can feel it, it's easy to call it out.

01:02:30.400 But I miss this completely.

01:02:34.120 Maricopa County, what went wrong?

01:02:35.820 So the information we're getting is sketchy as hell, which is that some of the machines were crashing some of the time

01:02:42.840 because they couldn't handle the type of ink that was used on the ballots.

01:02:48.040 How many questions does that raise?

01:02:51.660 Question number one.

01:02:53.880 You don't test the actual ballots with the actual machines before the election?

01:02:57.660 Or do you just test a few, and testing a few wouldn't have picked up these errors?

01:03:06.620 Did they test the actual ballots?

01:03:09.700 Or was there some production problem that they had to use cheap ink for some of them?

01:03:16.560 I don't know.

01:03:17.680 So those are big questions.

01:03:19.040 We'll find out.

01:03:19.580 But could you game the system by giving some people ballots that had intentionally weak ink

01:03:29.380 and giving the people that you knew would vote your way ballots that had the proper ink?

01:03:36.120 Could somebody game the system that way?

01:03:38.720 Could you take legal ballots and replace them with weak ink ballots?

01:03:44.580 Could you, if you were the printer, if you were the printer of these ballots,

01:03:49.340 could you make two batches of ballots, one that you sent to predominantly Democrat areas

01:03:53.720 and one to predominantly Republican areas?

01:03:57.300 I don't know.

01:03:58.300 You could.

01:04:00.040 But here's the sketchiest part I heard about it.

01:04:04.940 The technicians visited all the machines.

01:04:08.080 So now on election day, you've got people inside the election machines.

01:04:14.760 Okay.

01:04:15.720 There are people inside the election machines on election day.

01:04:18.700 That makes you feel comfortable, doesn't it?

01:04:20.960 Now, I'm hoping that they have systems and processes to protect that very thing,

01:04:27.600 because you would expect on election day would be the day you would have the most technicians

01:04:31.800 and the most machines for just ordinary reasons, right?

01:04:35.480 So they must have some way to protect against the obvious danger of having anybody in the machine.

01:04:40.940 I don't know what it is, but I'm hoping they have a process.

01:04:44.260 So probably that wasn't a problem.

01:04:47.340 Probably not.

01:04:49.640 But does it raise any suspicion that they could tweak individual machines

01:04:57.520 to a higher state of sensitivity and then they would work?

01:05:03.220 Wait a minute.

01:05:04.020 If all of the machines were made the same, but only some of them needed to be tweaked,

01:05:13.780 doesn't that mean that they were not the same machines?

01:05:18.120 That they had different settings?

01:05:21.440 Because if the hardware is the same and the software is not the same,

01:05:24.860 and the only thing they changed was a setting,

01:05:28.040 that means they weren't using the same machines.

01:05:31.720 And that means, I'm very curious,

01:05:35.800 if the ones that didn't have the right setting

01:05:38.620 were in one kind of district versus another,

01:05:43.980 or one precinct versus another.

01:05:49.320 Somebody says it's not the tabulators, it was the printers.

01:05:52.300 Not the tabulators, but the printers.

01:05:57.140 So is the system that when you vote, it prints out your vote,

01:06:00.460 and then they take that printed vote and put it in a tabulator?

01:06:03.320 Is that what's happening?

01:06:09.580 Somebody says yes.

01:06:11.580 However, was it the printer they adjusted or the tabulators?

01:06:17.320 What got adjusted, the tabulators or the printers?

01:06:23.300 The printers.

01:06:24.060 So somebody changed the printer so they printed properly.

01:06:31.140 But it's the printer on the voting machine, right?

01:06:35.840 If the vote gets printed out by the voting machine,

01:06:39.500 it's the voting machine itself that's reading the,

01:06:42.320 or that's the problem, right?

01:06:44.240 Okay, I guess we have a whole bunch of questions.

01:06:47.440 So I don't have enough detail to go much further.

01:06:50.820 But let me make the general point.

01:06:52.340 So whether it was the printers or the printer on the voting machine

01:06:58.580 or the election machine counter, no matter what it was,

01:07:03.340 no matter what it was,

01:07:05.280 the intention was they were all the same, right?

01:07:08.780 The intention was everybody had the same equipment.

01:07:12.720 How could some of that equipment act differently?

01:07:17.620 How is that possible?

01:07:18.780 Well, one way would be somebody put bad ink

01:07:22.580 or not enough ink in some of the printers.

01:07:26.060 That would actually be a pretty, you know, normal, reasonable thing.

01:07:29.740 Some of them just had bad ink or bad printers.

01:07:32.160 But it could be the same printer, just some of them weren't good.

01:07:37.760 Listen to the printer expert.

01:07:39.900 Who's the printer expert?

01:07:40.840 You have no standing to find out what happened.

01:07:44.980 Yeah, yeah, maybe.

01:07:46.120 Maybe there'll be no standing from a legal sense.

01:07:49.460 So there's no way to find out.

01:07:53.120 All right.

01:07:53.800 All I'm saying is they have not eliminated the possibility of shenanigans.

01:08:00.460 Would you agree with that?

01:08:01.620 That what we know so far has not eliminated shenanigans from the possibility set.

01:08:09.920 But would you agree with the second part?

01:08:13.600 If the problem is the printers were not printing, let's say, the same,

01:08:21.180 doesn't that sound like a normal problem?

01:08:23.740 Like, you know, the whole thing is explained?

01:08:26.240 If all it is is that printers don't print the same everywhere,

01:08:29.500 that's everything we already know.

01:08:31.060 Every one of you has a printer problem.

01:08:33.820 Yeah.

01:08:34.420 But then the question would be this.

01:08:37.380 Why do we never have this problem before?

01:08:41.340 Why do we never have this problem before?

01:08:43.880 First time?

01:08:45.360 Haven't we always used printers?

01:08:47.520 And printers suddenly went from functional to non-functional?

01:08:50.440 And why did they only become non-functional in the most important county?

01:08:54.920 All the other printers everywhere were fine.

01:08:57.160 But just this one very important county had some bad printers in it.

01:09:02.920 A lot of them.

01:09:03.860 A lot of them.

01:09:04.860 Got a lot of bad printers in there.

01:09:07.460 So here's what I believe.

01:09:10.020 I believe we're still in the fog of war.

01:09:11.920 So the one thing we can all say about Maricopa is we don't know what happened.

01:09:17.780 Would you agree with that?

01:09:19.520 We don't have enough information.

01:09:22.680 So the first thing we know is we don't have enough information.

01:09:25.660 The second thing we know is there is a perfectly normal explanation for what we're seeing.

01:09:31.700 Doesn't mean it's true.

01:09:32.720 But it's perfectly normal.

01:09:36.260 Yeah, there was a problem with some printers in one area.

01:09:39.840 I mean, that feels like something they could explain with normal stuff.

01:09:43.740 Again, we have questions.

01:09:45.660 Why just this one area?

01:09:47.800 Why didn't we ever have this problem before?

01:09:50.300 Good questions.

01:09:51.400 But I wouldn't be surprised if they could be answered.

01:09:55.300 It could be as easy as...

01:09:57.680 Let me just give you an example.

01:09:58.980 It could be as easy as there's a procedure to put in a new ink cartridge before you start the election.

01:10:07.240 And in one place, they didn't do it.

01:10:10.320 They did some testing, and they forgot to change the ink cartridges.

01:10:15.240 And then when it got toward the end, the ink was light, and then the reader didn't pick it up.

01:10:19.440 But everyone else just followed the procedure, so they just didn't have that problem.

01:10:25.180 Maybe.

01:10:25.960 Now, I'm not saying that's the answer.

01:10:27.160 I'm saying that it would be real easy to imagine a very normal human error situation.

01:10:36.160 Well, but here's the thing.

01:10:40.300 You could also determine whether it was a mistake that would favor one side.

01:10:45.800 But if the problem was simply that some machines didn't work, could you know that would favor one side?

01:10:52.460 Could you be confident that your plan would work?

01:10:55.780 I don't know.

01:10:56.240 These are questions we must get to the bottom of.

01:11:02.060 But I don't think the country is up in arms.

01:11:04.700 I feel like Maricopa, no matter what happens there, maybe we learn something, maybe we get smarter,

01:11:10.420 but it's not like the end of the democracy, no matter what happens.

01:11:13.800 That, ladies and gentlemen, is, I believe, the most useful and best live stream you're going to see today about the election.

01:11:31.160 Now, if you would like to track my influence on the world, watch how the election results are covered today.

01:11:41.380 Now, I have the advantage of being able to go early in the day.

01:11:45.980 So sometimes, you know, if I just say the obvious thing, other people will also say the obvious thing, but it's not because of me.

01:11:52.340 Everybody's going to say the obvious stuff, so they're not copying me if they say obvious stuff.

01:11:58.740 But if you hear people talking about the demographic difference, the fear of persuasion, the taking something away persuasion, or those things, then maybe that was my influence.

01:12:16.200 All right?

01:12:18.900 All of the pundits and news people today are going to be struggling to say something new.

01:12:26.180 I just achieved that.

01:12:28.500 See if anybody else does.

01:12:31.120 So there's your challenge for the day.

01:12:34.000 So this is my pitch to you for why you should watch my live stream.

01:12:39.420 It is my contention that I gave you a take which you won't hear anywhere else unless they were influenced by me.

01:12:47.920 And I think that's what I add.

01:12:49.620 I add the take you haven't heard somewhere else, which is not crazy.

01:12:53.700 By the way, how did you like my take?

01:12:57.080 I guess I'll just ask you how you liked it.

01:12:59.520 What do you think of my take that I was blinded to the persuasion for all the obvious reasons?

01:13:05.880 I'm not the target of it.

01:13:06.900 And because I'm not the target, that's not a good excuse.

01:13:12.120 Because I do know enough about persuasion I should have seen it.

01:13:16.040 I should have picked that up, honestly.

01:13:18.880 But I think maybe I was picking it up subconsciously.

01:13:21.760 Because remember, I was very unique in not having a prediction about a red wave.

01:13:26.500 Is there anybody else who is notable in the prediction world who also did not predict a red wave?

01:13:36.900 Sticks?

01:13:38.360 Sticks and hammer?

01:13:40.380 Is that true?

01:13:43.420 Nate Silver, his was based on data.

01:13:47.500 Michael Moore.

01:13:50.680 Yep.

01:13:52.880 Interesting.

01:13:54.120 All right, let me ask you this.

01:13:55.680 Did Michael Moore do it again?

01:13:57.100 I don't know if he was right on his reason, because I think he thought abortion was going to be like a driving thing.

01:14:07.240 But he might have been right about that.

01:14:09.020 He might have been right that that 2% or 3% was all it took.

01:14:15.520 Are you admitting you are lacking in persuasion analysis?

01:14:18.460 In this case, I missed the signals, yes.

01:14:22.680 But I don't think I missed them enough that I made the wrong prediction.

01:14:30.540 I knew to not predict.

01:14:32.920 Because there was just something about this situation that wasn't...

01:14:36.740 I couldn't put my finger on it.

01:14:38.540 There just wasn't something working.

01:14:39.740 But now after the fact, it's a little clearer after the fact, you know, your analysis could be a little bit better.

01:14:50.640 But I would ask you this.

01:14:52.520 Every time somebody is this wrong, can you, you know, adjust who you believe in the future?

01:14:59.380 If I had told you there was a red wave, I would be pretty embarrassed today.

01:15:06.780 And I would probably have to tell you honestly that you should discount what I predict in the future.

01:15:13.340 But the fact that I was one of the few people who did not predict a red wave, I feel like you should take that into consideration too.

01:15:21.760 Oh, you're right.

01:15:22.460 I wouldn't be embarrassed.

01:15:24.440 Yeah, I guess that was hyperbole.

01:15:26.680 Yeah, I don't really get embarrassed by anything.

01:15:29.380 But you get the point.

01:15:30.460 I would have been wrong.

01:15:38.060 Yeah.

01:15:40.300 All right.

01:15:41.180 Even Jim Cravers, right, once in a while, somebody says.

01:15:47.600 Now, let me ask you this.

01:15:52.360 What happens if Cary Lake loses?

01:15:56.740 So that's still possible, right?

01:15:58.340 Or actually probable, I think, given her current situation.

01:16:03.460 If she loses, what are the odds she wouldn't be the vice president pick for Trump?

01:16:09.800 Now, he'd still have to get through the primaries before that matters.

01:16:13.440 But what are the odds that that wouldn't happen?

01:16:16.500 Now, let me tell you a play that Trump could do that he won't.

01:16:28.420 But if Trump wanted to change his reputation from, you know, half of the country thinking he's the worst thing that ever happened to Earth,

01:16:38.260 here's how he could do it, run for election with Cary Lake as his vice president, win the election, and resign.

01:16:54.460 And then Trump would give you the first female president.

01:17:00.940 And, and he would be George Washington.

01:17:08.380 He would be George Washington.

01:17:11.060 He would walk away from power after putting a woman in power.

01:17:15.780 Just think about it.

01:17:18.820 Imagine him being the person who put a woman in the presidency.

01:17:22.220 His own decision, nobody else's.

01:17:24.160 His own personal, nobody else in the world decided.

01:17:27.360 He personally could make her president.

01:17:30.060 And then he does it.

01:17:34.340 It'll never happen.

01:17:35.580 I agree it'll never happen.

01:17:36.620 But, it's there.

01:17:39.980 It's there.

01:17:41.440 It's free money.

01:17:43.260 He could retire as George Washington.

01:17:48.240 People would, people would go nuts.

01:17:51.260 And their heads would explode.

01:17:53.600 Now, I agree with you.

01:17:55.760 The people who like Trump, like him because he's not like that.

01:18:00.700 He's just always Trump.

01:18:02.420 He's Trump today.

01:18:03.400 He's Trump tomorrow.

01:18:04.240 He'll be Trump next week.

01:18:05.500 And that's part of his appeal, honestly.

01:18:09.080 So, I don't think he can do that.

01:18:11.320 All right.

01:18:11.540 Here's another way Trump could easily win the election.

01:18:15.800 But, it also requires him to do something Trump isn't going to do.

01:18:20.220 All right.

01:18:20.700 But, here's how easy it would be.

01:18:23.160 You know, I have to be honest.

01:18:25.060 I may have pushed those vaccinations too hard.

01:18:30.240 And, I apologize for that.

01:18:32.060 Now, he could still say, it's up to you.

01:18:38.640 I got him.

01:18:39.380 I, you know, I did what I thought was the best thing to do.

01:18:42.640 But, I have to admit that this didn't work out as well as I thought.

01:18:47.240 He could actually just claim that that didn't work out.

01:18:50.240 The second thing he could do is admit that he's getting people all worked up about racism and he wishes he hadn't.

01:19:02.820 All he'd have to do to talk about border and immigration is just stop saying they're sending their worst people.

01:19:12.140 Will you just stop saying that?

01:19:14.520 Like, the first time he said it, I feel like it was good provocation.

01:19:18.520 Like, it really, you know, brought all the energy to him and they'd fight over whether that was true or hyperbole and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

01:19:26.280 Maybe it kind of worked for him.

01:19:28.100 But, at this point, it just looks racist.

01:19:31.440 I don't think that's why he says it.

01:19:33.780 But, he has to know by now how it sounds to the other team.

01:19:38.340 All he'd have to do is say, you know what?

01:19:40.420 The people coming across the border are like a gift to this country.

01:19:44.160 We should have more, but we should do it the right way.

01:19:49.580 It's just so easy.

01:19:51.440 I mean, he could win everything just by being uncharacteristically humble.

01:19:57.160 Which isn't going to happen, right?

01:19:59.560 But, I find it fascinating to know how easily he could win everything.

01:20:05.080 All he'd have to do is just act normal for a while.

01:20:10.260 And, even if it's acting, he knows how to act.

01:20:12.800 So, he could do it.

01:20:16.700 And, all the people who say, I'll never vote for him because of the thing he did or the thing he didn't do,

01:20:22.140 it all depends who he's running against.

01:20:24.580 If he runs against a Democrat, you're going to be like, ah, damn it.

01:20:28.340 It's not my first choice, but I don't want that Democrat over there.

01:20:32.240 So, if he gets in the race, he could definitely win the race.

01:20:37.300 I think getting the nomination would be the hard part.

01:20:40.660 Winning the race might be the easy part.

01:20:42.800 In the end.

01:20:44.900 But, if, I would say this.

01:20:47.140 If Trump acts exactly like he's always acted, he probably would lose to any Democrat.

01:20:53.860 What do you say?

01:20:55.220 If Trump acts the way he's always acted, he would lose to any Democrat.

01:21:00.560 Because he lost to Biden by acting that way.

01:21:03.640 If you lose to Biden, whatever you did was the wrong thing to do.

01:21:08.960 But, again, what makes Trump Trump is he doesn't change.

01:21:15.280 And, there is value in that.

01:21:17.000 There's value in knowing exactly what you're going to get.

01:21:19.760 And, I kind of like that, actually.

01:21:21.760 But, it doesn't work in this situation.

01:21:24.880 Right?

01:21:25.160 Change is the only thing that would get him elected.

01:21:29.020 Only change.

01:21:29.840 And, I don't think that's on his menu.

01:21:32.980 So, there you go.

01:21:37.940 But, did he lose fairly?

01:21:39.500 I don't know.

01:21:40.900 I'm going to say yes.

01:21:42.760 Because, in my opinion, cheating is part of our election system.

01:21:47.740 And, if the Democrats haven't cheated the Republicans and that made the difference, they won.

01:21:53.800 They won.

01:21:54.660 Because, anybody who says that the Republicans aren't trying to cheat, well, you're just, you're not a serious person.

01:22:01.500 Somewhere, there's a Republican trying to cheat.

01:22:04.780 Somewhere.

01:22:06.000 I don't know if there are more of them or fewer of them than Democrats, but let's be adults.

01:22:11.960 It's a big country with a lot of people in it.

01:22:14.500 Somebody's trying to cheat somewhere on both sides.

01:22:18.740 Uh, uniparty theory.

01:22:20.800 I don't discuss uniparty theory because I don't take it seriously.

01:22:24.940 I get the idea that they end up being similar.

01:22:28.700 They all want war.

01:22:30.280 They all want to raise your taxes.

01:22:31.660 I get that.

01:22:32.380 But, I think it gets there through a variety of ways.

01:22:36.160 You know, calling it the uniparty doesn't add much to the analysis.

01:22:42.060 Will anybody primary Trump?

01:22:44.300 I think so.

01:22:45.940 Don't you?

01:22:46.300 I think Trump's going to have to get through a, I hope so, actually.

01:22:51.320 I hope so.

01:22:52.640 I don't think, I don't, let me say this.

01:22:55.180 I don't think Trump should be the nominee without a primary.

01:22:59.160 What would you say?

01:23:00.040 Because I think the Republicans need to sort that out, don't they?

01:23:06.260 Yeah, normally you don't, I mean, if he were a sitting president, I'd say no primary.

01:23:10.360 But, given that he lost, and he lost to Biden, if you lose to Biden, you have to primary.

01:23:18.920 And if your people you recommended for the midterms didn't work out, you have to primary.

01:23:24.160 Now, here's what's different today than yesterday.

01:23:27.260 Yesterday, if DeSantis had said he was going to primary him, you'd say, well, that's being kind of a dick, and maybe you're not helping your party.

01:23:37.560 Right?

01:23:37.740 Well, when you say today, today it doesn't look like a dick move.

01:23:42.860 Today it looks like saving the party.

01:23:45.880 Right?

01:23:46.120 If DeSantis said he was going to primary Trump, he could say, this is the last thing I wanted to do.

01:23:52.640 It's the last thing I wanted to do.

01:23:55.280 But it's the only way to save the party.

01:23:59.480 That's a really strong argument, given that the person he's primarying just lost to the worst candidate in the history of candidates whose name wasn't Fetterman.

01:24:09.440 Right?

01:24:11.400 If I primary Trump, I would just say this.

01:24:13.760 He lost to Biden.

01:24:18.480 And then they'd say, but what policies are you bringing?

01:24:21.100 And then I'd lean in and I'd say, he lost to Biden.

01:24:27.520 And then they'd say, yes, yes, yes, but what are you going to do with taxes and Ukraine?

01:24:31.940 And then I'd lean in and say, he lost to Biden.

01:24:36.200 And I'm not even going to give any more argument.

01:24:39.880 Honestly, he lost to Biden.

01:24:43.760 Right?

01:24:44.660 No, whatever you want to say about the, you know, propriety of the election and the pandemic change, the election procedures, and that made a difference.

01:24:53.620 Yes.

01:24:54.460 Yes, it made a difference.

01:24:56.260 But he lost to Biden.

01:24:58.700 I don't know how you get past that.

01:25:00.380 How do you compare Trump to DeSantis in the primary?

01:25:09.120 They don't even compare, do they?

01:25:12.660 Because, you know, Democrats are going to be sort of, or Republicans are going to be sort of automatic for a competent Republican.

01:25:19.880 All you need is somebody who isn't going to embarrass you, and you get all the Republicans.

01:25:26.860 And, unfortunately, Trump embarrasses some Republicans.

01:25:30.940 So he just can't get those.

01:25:33.060 Who does DeSantis embarrass?

01:25:36.060 Nobody.

01:25:37.940 There's no embarrassment factor.

01:25:39.900 So he just has to be solid, and he gets 100% of Republicans.

01:25:43.960 But Trump can't do that.

01:25:47.120 Trump can't just do a solid job and get 100% of Republicans, because people are kind of pissed.

01:25:55.140 He'd lose to cheating again.

01:25:57.860 I don't know.

01:25:58.440 I'm optimistic that our elections are more watched than they've ever been.

01:26:05.280 And we don't have much of a complaint this morning, except for the one county that everybody's watching carefully.

01:26:14.440 So we'll see.

01:26:15.260 We may be in good shape.

01:26:17.480 We may be in good shape.

01:26:20.840 Scott also believes the stripper loves him.

01:26:23.320 Very optimistic fellow.

01:26:26.080 No, I don't believe anybody loves me.

01:26:29.740 That's sort of my general, my baseline.

01:26:32.740 I don't mean, you know, in the public world.

01:26:37.580 No, I, you know, I know that many of you have a positive feeling about me.

01:26:42.260 I mean in my personal life.

01:26:44.340 Like, in my personal life, I just assume nobody really loves me.

01:26:47.820 I just...

01:26:48.740 I'm not saying you should.

01:26:53.960 I don't think it has to do with any of my specific situations.

01:26:57.240 I just don't assume it.

01:26:59.360 I just assume it's all transactional.

01:27:03.140 I saw some people on social media who were saying that, you know, the way that men love women and the way that women love men is different.

01:27:12.840 And I have to say it matched my own views.

01:27:16.640 I don't know if it's right.

01:27:18.040 But the idea is that women love what men can provide.

01:27:23.400 It's a transactional, conditional relationship, and that's all it is.

01:27:28.060 Whereas men fall in love with women.

01:27:32.400 They're just in love with a woman.

01:27:34.540 And so the woman can do kind of anything good or bad, and it wasn't transactional in the first place,

01:27:41.260 so the good or the bad won't change your opinion about anything.

01:27:44.360 You still want to stay married.

01:27:46.700 Whereas if the man doesn't provide the things,

01:27:51.360 then...

01:27:52.360 You know, could I inform some of you fucking idiots about what incel means?

01:27:59.560 Can I fill you in?

01:28:01.360 Incel means involuntary.

01:28:04.560 Involuntary.

01:28:05.120 Do any of you fucking idiots think that a rich, healthy man in America can't get laid?

01:28:13.520 I'd like to see your opinion.

01:28:15.680 Do you believe that a rich, completely fit, good BMI, ordinary person in America,

01:28:24.440 do you think I can't get laid?

01:28:26.900 In 2022?

01:28:27.880 Say so.

01:28:31.420 All right, so somebody says no.

01:28:34.180 All right, here's how this works.

01:28:36.440 Everybody who's healthy and has money can get laid, if they're male.

01:28:40.940 I mean, I can't speak for women.

01:28:42.640 Maybe it's the same.

01:28:47.260 But do you buy that frame that men have to provide?

01:28:52.560 By the way, Chris Rock was saying the same thing.

01:28:54.560 I think Chris Rock said the only people who are loved unconditionally

01:28:58.440 are women, dogs, and children.

01:29:04.140 They're the only ones who get unconditional love.

01:29:07.020 But men, you've got to deliver.

01:29:09.720 So for men, it's just what you're providing.

01:29:12.120 Now, when I said I don't assume that anybody loves me in my personal life,

01:29:15.940 that's what I meant.

01:29:17.340 That's what I meant.

01:29:18.300 I meant the moment I stopped providing, the love would go away.

01:29:21.980 Of course, of course it would.

01:29:25.520 But I've never assumed differently.

01:29:27.540 Have you?

01:29:28.600 Is there any man here who thinks that they would still be loved

01:29:31.540 if they withdrew all of their benefit from the person they think loves them?

01:29:37.860 Now, maybe if you had like an accident,

01:29:41.600 you know, if you had a tragic accident,

01:29:43.920 you couldn't do what you wanted to do, then yes.

01:29:46.860 You know, you probably would still be loved.

01:29:48.280 But she'd still have an affair

01:29:49.900 because she would love the other guy better

01:29:53.480 if maybe you could provide more.

01:29:57.640 So, yes.

01:29:59.500 And I find this really helpful.

01:30:02.860 I find this helpful.

01:30:07.200 I find it helpful to assume that men aren't loved

01:30:11.200 because then you don't get disappointed.

01:30:13.100 One of the things that I get a lot of heat for

01:30:17.920 is having two divorces

01:30:19.660 to which I say

01:30:22.760 I wanted to get married.

01:30:25.940 It was good for a number of years.

01:30:28.720 And then when I didn't want to be married,

01:30:30.860 I changed the situation.

01:30:33.220 And, you know, so did the other person.

01:30:35.000 It's not all about one person.

01:30:37.700 So,

01:30:39.000 I didn't get married

01:30:40.480 because I thought they would last forever.

01:30:41.820 I never assumed that.

01:30:44.660 Do you know why I didn't think

01:30:46.020 I would be married forever?

01:30:48.220 Give me the reason.

01:30:49.680 Why do you think

01:30:50.400 I didn't ever believe

01:30:51.860 I would be married forever?

01:30:55.580 Because

01:30:56.100 of the age difference.

01:30:59.740 Because what I could provide

01:31:01.340 was, you know,

01:31:04.060 money and comfort,

01:31:06.320 but also, you know,

01:31:07.800 a physical part.

01:31:09.060 You know, the physical intimacy.

01:31:10.280 As I aged,

01:31:12.180 it was 100% likely

01:31:13.520 I could not provide

01:31:14.500 the physical intimacy.

01:31:16.580 And that by the time

01:31:17.780 that happened,

01:31:18.940 whoever I was with

01:31:19.900 would be rich by then,

01:31:21.540 just by the relationship.

01:31:23.920 So,

01:31:24.560 the thing that I knew

01:31:26.520 had to happen

01:31:27.240 is that the things

01:31:29.180 I was providing

01:31:29.960 would be taken for granted

01:31:31.340 because they would eventually

01:31:32.820 be transferred

01:31:33.560 in enough quantity

01:31:34.940 that they could divorce me

01:31:37.420 and be rich at the same time.

01:31:38.620 So, my benefit

01:31:40.460 of keeping them,

01:31:41.600 you know,

01:31:42.080 alive

01:31:42.560 went to zero

01:31:43.740 because they could do it

01:31:44.760 themselves

01:31:45.100 and they were already rich.

01:31:46.360 And any benefit

01:31:47.340 I could bring from,

01:31:48.660 you know,

01:31:49.080 my awesome physical intimacy

01:31:50.980 would eventually

01:31:52.420 shrink to zero.

01:31:54.680 Am I right?

01:31:56.080 What else am I providing?

01:31:58.260 My great personality?

01:32:00.300 There are plenty of guys

01:32:01.600 with good personalities.

01:32:03.480 Was it that I'm so fun

01:32:04.800 to be with

01:32:05.380 that somebody just has

01:32:06.160 to be with me in a room?

01:32:07.440 Nope.

01:32:08.240 Turns out there are

01:32:08.940 plenty of people

01:32:09.500 who are fun to be with

01:32:10.280 in a room.

01:32:11.360 I didn't have anything.

01:32:12.660 So, I said to myself

01:32:13.960 on day one,

01:32:15.000 I'm bringing

01:32:15.600 this amazing

01:32:17.240 physical intimacy

01:32:18.420 that

01:32:18.860 I provide,

01:32:22.800 a financial bubble

01:32:25.660 that anybody would want,

01:32:28.880 a lifestyle

01:32:29.760 of somebody

01:32:30.500 who's a celebrity.

01:32:31.200 don't you think

01:32:33.760 that some people

01:32:34.320 sort of,

01:32:35.040 you know,

01:32:35.660 would like a little bit

01:32:36.660 that their partner

01:32:38.020 is a celebrity,

01:32:38.880 especially if it's a male?

01:32:41.440 Yeah.

01:32:41.860 I mean,

01:32:42.100 there are all these

01:32:42.740 little benefits,

01:32:43.480 things I could provide

01:32:44.400 that other people

01:32:45.140 couldn't provide,

01:32:46.360 but it was 100%

01:32:48.040 guaranteed from day one

01:32:49.500 that what I could provide

01:32:51.500 would shrink to zero.

01:32:53.980 So, therefore,

01:32:55.020 since I believe

01:32:55.780 in a transactional world,

01:32:57.420 at least where it involves

01:32:58.840 men and women,

01:32:59.380 I knew

01:33:00.780 that marriage

01:33:02.200 was a rental

01:33:03.640 and not a buy-to-own.

01:33:06.680 Now,

01:33:07.220 if you thought

01:33:07.840 marriage was a buy-to-own,

01:33:10.360 but you were

01:33:10.800 in a similar situation

01:33:11.880 to me,

01:33:12.720 well,

01:33:13.180 you missed the signs.

01:33:14.960 You missed the signals.

01:33:16.600 The signals were all there.

01:33:18.400 You weren't going

01:33:19.200 to get younger,

01:33:20.300 but she was definitely

01:33:21.600 going to get richer.

01:33:23.040 Right?

01:33:23.320 It was all there.

01:33:24.180 You should have been able

01:33:24.800 to predict it easily.

01:33:29.380 All right.

01:33:31.440 Judy says,

01:33:32.340 love is not transactional.

01:33:35.640 Well,

01:33:36.640 as soon as

01:33:37.380 your guy

01:33:38.300 stops giving you stuff,

01:33:40.860 check in with me.

01:33:42.100 See how that worked out.

01:33:45.040 Are you going

01:33:45.760 to continue renting?

01:33:46.780 Yeah,

01:33:46.940 I think renting

01:33:47.740 is all that makes sense

01:33:49.020 from my age.

01:33:51.200 I'm at the age

01:33:52.080 where every woman

01:33:52.840 wants to marry me

01:33:53.780 if she can stand me

01:33:54.840 for five minutes.

01:33:56.340 Do you know why?

01:33:56.980 Why does every woman

01:33:59.460 want to marry me

01:34:00.400 if they can even

01:34:01.420 stand me for five minutes?

01:34:03.300 Right,

01:34:03.660 because I'm near death

01:34:04.360 and I'm rich.

01:34:07.140 I'm near death

01:34:08.060 and I'm rich.

01:34:09.140 That's like a really

01:34:09.960 good deal.

01:34:11.700 Transactionally,

01:34:12.220 that's something

01:34:12.720 that most people

01:34:13.400 would say,

01:34:13.780 you know,

01:34:14.540 this might suck

01:34:15.320 for 10 to 15 years,

01:34:17.400 but if I can gut it out

01:34:19.740 for 10 to 15,

01:34:21.780 hmm,

01:34:22.500 I'm rich.

01:34:24.020 I'm rich.

01:34:24.640 Yeah,

01:34:27.140 so I'm very,

01:34:27.820 very popular.

01:34:29.020 So,

01:34:29.720 to the,

01:34:30.720 whoever it is

01:34:31.420 who said

01:34:32.260 I'm an incel,

01:34:33.840 it's definitely

01:34:34.440 not involuntary.

01:34:36.620 I can get laid

01:34:37.700 three times a day.

01:34:39.740 It wouldn't take

01:34:40.400 any effort whatsoever.

01:34:42.340 None.

01:34:45.320 All right.

01:34:48.520 Get another dog.

01:34:49.780 Why would you

01:34:54.300 leave your shit

01:34:55.340 to your shitty new wife?

01:34:57.220 Eh,

01:34:58.040 who else is going

01:34:58.780 to get it?

01:35:00.340 You might like

01:35:01.200 your wife.

01:35:06.660 Someone as old

01:35:07.580 as you.

01:35:08.480 Yeah,

01:35:08.820 that's a possibility too.

01:35:14.360 But two of those times

01:35:15.680 we'll be with David.

01:35:16.660 What?

01:35:17.060 What?

01:35:17.100 Did anyone

01:35:20.560 in particular

01:35:21.100 help you

01:35:21.520 change your mind

01:35:22.200 and how you

01:35:22.620 view women

01:35:23.180 and relationships?

01:35:25.820 That's a good question.

01:35:27.900 No.

01:35:29.640 No,

01:35:30.120 I can't think,

01:35:30.880 I don't believe

01:35:31.560 there was any guru

01:35:32.520 or anything.

01:35:32.980 And by the way,

01:35:33.640 I don't have,

01:35:34.220 this is nothing new.

01:35:36.680 My views on this

01:35:38.280 are at least

01:35:39.800 25 years old.

01:35:41.420 But I definitely

01:35:42.140 had different views

01:35:42.900 when I was young

01:35:43.660 as I explained

01:35:44.480 early on.

01:35:45.100 early on

01:35:46.300 I thought

01:35:46.640 if I did

01:35:47.180 what women

01:35:47.780 said they

01:35:48.340 wanted of men

01:35:49.740 that that would

01:35:51.160 make them happy.

01:35:53.380 Have any of you

01:35:54.460 ever fell for that?

01:35:56.140 Have any of you

01:35:56.760 men fell for that?

01:35:58.560 The women

01:35:59.140 will tell you

01:35:59.580 exactly what they want

01:36:00.660 and then you say

01:36:03.400 I just have to

01:36:04.360 give them that

01:36:04.860 and then they'll

01:36:05.420 be happy.

01:36:06.280 You've fallen

01:36:06.760 for that trick?

01:36:08.260 Yeah.

01:36:08.600 It took me

01:36:09.200 decades to realize

01:36:10.660 like my pattern

01:36:12.080 recognition

01:36:12.580 wasn't kicking in.

01:36:14.500 All the pattern

01:36:15.280 was so clear.

01:36:16.760 It takes you a while

01:36:17.440 to realize

01:36:17.980 that the operating

01:36:19.420 system of women

01:36:20.500 is to be

01:36:22.380 perpetually unhappy

01:36:23.380 because men think

01:36:24.560 if I just solve

01:36:25.820 this problem today

01:36:26.700 I'll be good tomorrow.

01:36:27.640 they don't know

01:36:29.360 they never catch on

01:36:30.560 that tomorrow

01:36:31.000 it's a new problem.

01:36:32.400 So the

01:36:33.040 operating system

01:36:34.380 of men

01:36:34.680 is to drain

01:36:35.540 resources

01:36:36.080 operating system

01:36:37.700 of women

01:36:38.220 is to drain

01:36:39.860 resources for men

01:36:41.020 by being

01:36:42.280 dissatisfied.

01:36:43.380 That's what works

01:36:44.100 within a relationship.

01:36:45.640 So dissatisfaction

01:36:46.660 is a requirement

01:36:47.880 of the system.

01:36:49.180 It's not

01:36:49.700 today's problem

01:36:50.600 that you're going

01:36:51.060 to solve.

01:36:52.680 And once you realize

01:36:53.440 that's unsolvable

01:36:54.440 you realize

01:36:55.960 that women

01:36:56.380 are essentially

01:36:57.200 toxic

01:36:57.860 unless you have

01:36:59.160 a combined

01:36:59.860 objective

01:37:01.200 to have children.

01:37:04.320 Too strong?

01:37:05.760 That women

01:37:06.480 are toxic

01:37:07.060 to men

01:37:07.640 unless you have

01:37:08.960 a shared mission.

01:37:10.400 Too strong?

01:37:13.020 If you do

01:37:13.780 have a shared mission

01:37:14.620 it could work out

01:37:15.280 great.

01:37:16.420 A shared mission

01:37:17.120 would be

01:37:17.700 you want to have

01:37:20.100 kids

01:37:20.420 you have the same

01:37:22.200 lifestyle preferences

01:37:23.360 you like your

01:37:25.080 friends

01:37:25.560 you like doing

01:37:26.860 the same things

01:37:27.740 lots of good

01:37:28.760 reasons to be

01:37:29.300 married.

01:37:30.000 Now anything

01:37:30.700 I say bad

01:37:31.420 about relationships

01:37:32.260 does not apply

01:37:33.780 to all people.

01:37:35.420 I mean that's

01:37:35.800 the thing

01:37:36.040 we always get

01:37:36.600 wrong.

01:37:37.260 The problem

01:37:37.700 with marriage

01:37:38.240 is we apply

01:37:38.900 it which we

01:37:39.560 think it applies

01:37:40.220 to all people

01:37:40.840 at best

01:37:42.260 it works

01:37:42.740 for 20%

01:37:43.500 like really

01:37:44.740 well.

01:37:45.660 It'll work

01:37:46.680 you know

01:37:47.040 well enough

01:37:47.880 for more

01:37:48.460 than 20%

01:37:49.220 but 20%

01:37:50.420 are killing

01:37:50.880 it

01:37:51.140 and the

01:37:52.880 rest

01:37:53.160 kind of

01:37:54.200 struggling

01:37:54.580 or wish

01:37:54.920 they hadn't

01:37:55.240 done it.

01:37:57.300 Now women

01:37:58.140 are toxic

01:37:58.700 to men

01:37:59.260 unless they

01:38:01.020 have a shared

01:38:01.480 mission

01:38:01.800 and then

01:38:02.240 the man

01:38:02.620 doesn't mind

01:38:03.300 the resources

01:38:04.600 being deployed

01:38:05.460 because that's

01:38:07.140 where the man

01:38:07.580 wants them

01:38:07.960 to be deployed.

01:38:13.100 I think

01:38:13.960 I just

01:38:14.240 red-pilled

01:38:14.720 the living

01:38:15.180 hell out of

01:38:15.780 Erica the

01:38:16.360 Excellent.

01:38:18.020 I'm just

01:38:18.620 looking at

01:38:18.960 your comments.

01:38:21.760 Alright.

01:38:22.880 That

01:38:24.160 ladies and

01:38:25.180 gentlemen

01:38:25.520 is all

01:38:26.140 the red

01:38:26.600 pilling

01:38:26.920 and persuasion

01:38:27.640 you need

01:38:28.060 for today.

01:38:29.100 Go watch

01:38:29.640 the rest

01:38:29.980 of the news

01:38:30.460 and find

01:38:31.220 out how

01:38:31.620 much it

01:38:32.140 sucks

01:38:32.560 compared

01:38:33.380 to the

01:38:33.720 awesomeness

01:38:34.220 that was

01:38:34.680 this.

01:38:36.260 And

01:38:36.540 goodbye

01:38:36.980 to YouTube

01:38:37.420 talk to

01:38:37.860 you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 09, 2022

Episode 1922 Scott Adams： Red Wave Blues And Signals Everyone Missed. Persuasion Filter： ON

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