Episode 1928 Scott Adams： It's A Super Newsy Day So Today's Show Will Be Extraordinary. Join Us!
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 7 minutes
Words per Minute
142.27682
Summary
On today's episode of the show, Scott Adams talks about the results of the Arizona primary, the early voting results, and the possibility that Donald Trump will announce he's running for president. Also, Scott talks about why he thinks Trump would be the best president of all time.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
Welcome to the highlight of civilization. It's called Coffee with Scott Adams because
00:00:04.520
I'm Scott Adams and there will be coffee. If you'd like to take this experience up to the maximal
00:00:11.420
possibility, and I'm talking whiteboard is coming kind of level, not even the normal
00:00:19.140
amazingness of the live stream usually, we're actually going to take it up a whole other level.
00:00:24.460
And if you'd like to be part of that, all you need is a cup or mug or a glass, a tank or chalice,
00:00:28.820
a stein, a canteen, jug or flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like
00:00:35.320
coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day. It's
00:00:43.380
the thing that makes everything feel better. It's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now. Go.
00:00:49.940
So, I felt a few of you missing the mark there. Some of you were a little slow. Next time? Next
00:01:01.920
time I want you all to be on point, okay? But it was still very good. It was very good. Just,
00:01:10.280
I think you could take it up another level. There were a few of you I could sense. Somebody in Iowa,
00:01:15.560
two people in Great Britain, and three people in Florida who were not on time with the rest of you.
00:01:25.180
I could feel that. Yeah, I can feel it. Let's talk about the news.
00:01:32.420
So, Carrie Lake did not win in Arizona. She will not be the governor. Instead, the governor will be
00:01:39.140
somebody who won a suspicious election, election in which she was the one in charge of counting the
00:01:46.140
votes. So, the person in charge of counting the votes won in a suspicious way. I'm not alleging
00:01:54.440
any cheating happened. I have no evidence of any cheating whatsoever. I want to be clear about that
00:01:59.300
because I'm no election denier. I'm just saying that from the outside, there might be a few questions
00:02:06.700
about the delay and the way things went and the fact that the person who counted the votes won in a
00:02:13.280
narrow match. Oh, what could go wrong? So, here's my note to Democrats. Pretty happy about that?
00:02:26.480
You're pretty happy that Carrie Lake's not going to be a governor?
00:02:29.140
Good luck with that. Because if you don't know what's coming for you, you're going to have a nice
00:02:38.540
surprise. Carrie Lake just got freed from her little state cage. You don't let the kraken out of the
00:02:49.380
state cage. If you could keep her in the governorship, you could at least keep her out of the way a little
00:02:55.560
bit, right? But they just released her to the national level. It's the biggest political mistake of all
00:03:02.300
time. Oops. I don't know what's going to happen. Was Trump allegedly going to announce today?
00:03:12.800
Did that change? At 9 p.m.? All right, here's what I'm going to predict for Trump's announcement.
00:03:22.160
Prediction. He will announce he's running because he's Trump. It would be insanely amazing if he
00:03:34.020
decided that he would tell you instead he's going to back a different candidate. Like that would just
00:03:39.440
blow your head off. And he would go into the George Washington, you know, annals of greatest
00:03:46.300
presidents. I'll even go further. If Trump decides that for the good of the country, he's not going to run,
00:03:54.980
you would be our greatest president since George Washington. Maybe second, second greatest. Would you agree?
00:04:02.900
As a prior supporter of his who has been disappointed in a number of areas, as many of you have,
00:04:08.300
if he stood down and said for the good of the country, this doesn't work. It's not 2016. You know,
00:04:18.240
I showed you what works. I showed you what doesn't. I'm going to take myself out of the mix. Now,
00:04:25.080
if you and I had this decision, could we do it? If you were in this situation, could you make that
00:04:32.260
choice? With your personality? You're not Trump. Could you do it? I could do it. Yeah. I think a lot
00:04:40.720
of you could do it. Do you think Trump could do it? Do you think Trump could do it? I'm going to tease
00:04:51.160
you a little bit. He actually could. And do you know why he could? Because he's smart enough to know
00:04:59.660
that it would cement him as the second best president of the whole fucking United States.
00:05:05.240
In many people's view. In my view, that would put him ahead of Reagan.
00:05:10.580
I liked Clinton as president. I liked him a lot, actually. But it would put him ahead of Clinton.
00:05:17.280
For sure. Now, that's just my view. So I can't guarantee that, you know, he wouldn't be discredited
00:05:24.620
in the history books or anything else. So I can't guarantee my view is common. But I don't expect
00:05:30.160
him to do that. Do you? Does anybody expect him to do anything except announce? So let's make our
00:05:37.040
prediction based on the fact that he will announce, OK? So here's my prediction within that path.
00:05:42.680
If he goes that path, he's going to tease that Carrie Lake could be his vice president.
00:05:52.020
You won't say it because you don't say those things at a time, but he's going to tease it.
00:06:02.880
There's just nothing that would be the same after that. All bets are off. And here's the thing that
00:06:08.960
makes Trump hard to support at the moment. There are a number of things that make him hard to
00:06:15.240
support. But one of the things is we don't see a moderating influence on him. Whereas Ivanka was a
00:06:22.360
moderating influence. Didn't you think so? I mean, I think she was there. I think Trump put her there,
00:06:30.100
not just because she was a trusted advisor, but that she was like an external conscience,
00:06:36.160
right? Like the one person he would listen to. And if she disagreed with him, I think he took her
00:06:44.600
seriously. And maybe not too many other people like that. So if you don't see a moderating influence
00:06:51.380
on Trump, he's a little dangerous looking, isn't he? Right? You needed that little bit of just
00:06:57.840
certainty that Jared and Ivanka, you know, they'd quit. They would have resigned, I think. Imagine how
00:07:04.680
embarrassing that would be. Imagine having your daughter resign because she doesn't agree with your
00:07:09.680
administration. Right? So Ivanka had actually a super important role for the country, not just for
00:07:18.940
Trump. It was more for the country. And I don't think that'll ever be fully appreciated. Now, I'm
00:07:24.420
speculating because I wasn't, you know, I'm not behind the scenes, but it feels like it. Now, imagine
00:07:30.080
Carrie Lake as his vice president. I hate to say this, but she's a far better communicator than
00:07:37.920
Trump. Now, he gets more energy and more attention. And that's, you could argue that that puts him
00:07:43.740
above. But in terms of forming a sentence that won't get you in trouble, but fully pushes your point,
00:07:51.800
Carrie Lake's better. One of the best we've seen, right? She's actually unique.
00:07:57.020
If she were on the team and you considered her a full partner in a way that Pence never felt like
00:08:05.700
a full partner, did he? Didn't you imagine that when Pence gave advice to Trump, that Trump listened
00:08:13.520
and then endured it? I don't know. I mean, I have a very high opinion of Pence as a vice president.
00:08:20.440
I think he was one of our best vice presidents. I think he was tremendous. In a really hard,
00:08:26.980
difficulty job, he excelled. Like, that's where you have to give him the credit. He had the hardest
00:08:33.040
job in the world, and he excelled. He was great. I don't want him as president. I don't think he's
00:08:39.260
quite got that vibe. But wow, you've got to give him credit for service to America.
00:08:43.860
But I think Carrie Lake would have the credibility and the skills that Trump would respect her skill
00:08:52.800
level, because he can see it, right? Everybody can see it. If he respects her skill level, he's
00:08:58.320
tempted to listen to her. And especially on the election denier stuff, I believe that she could
00:09:06.420
craft that into a message that actually worked in a positive way. It's easy, right?
00:09:13.460
It's easy. You just say, we don't know. There's no proof of any fraud. Step one, right? It's not
00:09:22.680
that hard. No fraud has been proven, but the way our system runs, it doesn't give us confidence.
00:09:30.740
Nobody can argue about that. Nothing's been proven, but the way our system runs, it doesn't give us
00:09:37.760
confidence. That has to be fixed. So let's forget the past, but figure out how we can fix it. How hard is
00:09:46.800
that? But that's something that Trump isn't going to do. Trump will never say it that way, right? But if
00:09:54.720
Carrie Lake says it that way, which is what the vice president does, the vice president, if you didn't
00:10:00.620
know this, the vice president tests messages in the campaign, if the message works, then the top
00:10:07.540
candidate says, oh yeah, that's the message. And if the message doesn't work, then the top says, well,
00:10:13.560
you know, I'll get the vice president on board. That's, you know, vice president was talking for her
00:10:18.240
himself, right? So Carrie Lake is the perfect person to test a message that Trump can learn from
00:10:26.180
and then adopt. Do you think Pence was that person? Do you think Pence ever said something that Trump
00:10:32.860
said, oh, that's a good way to say it? I think I'll copy Pence. Probably never. And again, I have a very
00:10:40.940
high opinion of Pence. His communication skills are extraordinary. Very good. Very good. But not the
00:10:47.880
kind of person who necessarily is going to influence you. All right. So yeah, that would
00:10:55.840
change everything. Keep an eye on that. However, we're also in the situation where, as I tweeted
00:11:01.960
earlier, that Fetterman could be any Republican in 2024. With a current setup, like if nothing
00:11:11.660
changed, like it's just straight line from here to 2024, no joke, this is not a joke. Now, I don't
00:11:19.980
think you'll run, obviously, but Fetterman could beat him. Why? Because all that matters is that your
00:11:26.560
team wants that more than they want the other thing. That's all. And they would. If they're willing to
00:11:32.460
treat Fetterman as a serious national candidate for senator, what would stop them from pretending he's
00:11:38.680
presidential material? I mean, by that, he would be much recovered. Right? You might even be able to
00:11:44.800
form sentences without a teleprompter or understand sentences. So I don't know what you do about that.
00:11:55.740
You know, I think we're all coming to the understanding that it's the mechanism of the vote that always
00:12:02.080
determines who wins. And right now, the mechanism, which is, you know, sort of leaning toward
00:12:08.420
ballots and voting at home and stuff, that mechanism strongly leans toward Democrats. I don't see
00:12:14.440
anything that's going to change it. Do you? I don't see Republicans suggesting or doing anything
00:12:20.060
that would make any difference to that. Do you? So I don't see any way that a Republican could win
00:12:29.560
in 2024 with the current setup. But there will be lots of changes between now and 2024. So that's not
00:12:38.360
a prediction. Right? My prediction is always that everything will change. When I give you a straight
00:12:44.220
line prediction, I'm telling you that's the thing that probably won't happen. Because the straight line
00:12:49.260
predictions are the ones that are the most rare. It's rare that nothing happens. Right? But it's
00:12:55.920
interesting to know what the straight line will look like. All right, we got to talk about FTX,
00:13:00.160
the big crypto exchange where that young guy was a big old multi-billionaire. And I guess he was the
00:13:07.680
third biggest donor to the Democratic Party. And it turns out he was stealing all the money from the
00:13:15.540
clients. And it was a big old scam. And it's all falling apart. So here are the sub-stories that have
00:13:23.060
come out of that. Turns out, this is way more interesting than I was expecting.
00:13:30.120
This has everything. Like, if you're looking for a story that has everything, oh, this has it.
00:13:37.260
This has got everything. So here's just a hint of what's happening. So the New York Times does this
00:13:44.200
major piece about the FTX scandal. And Twitter is just kicking their ass. Because they do a major
00:13:54.360
story. And here are the topics which were not mentioned in a major story about FTX. Fraud, crime,
00:14:03.220
substance abuse, connections with blah, blah, blah, stolen funds, wipe servers.
00:14:10.980
So the New York Times does a major story about this guy, who was a gigantic Democrat donor.
00:14:21.360
They treat it like it's some ordinary business problem where he lost his money or something.
00:14:27.040
Like, completely losing the... So Twitter noticed and started dumping on him. But that led me to
00:14:35.620
another fascinating thing. So I saw a tweet by Balaji Srinivasan. Now, I'm telling you, you need to follow
00:14:45.760
him on Twitter. Here's one where, just listen to me. Like, don't argue. Just listen to me. Just follow
00:14:54.840
Balaji Srinivasan on Twitter. Just do it. Okay? I'm not even going to tell you reasons. Just do it.
00:15:03.040
All right. So here's one of the things that he tweeted today. And I didn't know about this. He said,
00:15:09.860
the New York Times is covering up Sam Bankman-Fried's crimes. Nothing SBF says can be trusted.
00:15:17.220
Nothing the New York Times says can be trusted either. But dunking does nothing. You know, that's
00:15:22.120
what the other Twitter users were doing. They're trying to dunk on the New York Times. He says,
00:15:26.360
lies make traffic rise. You do have one option, though. Mass block them all in one go. And then
00:15:33.020
he gives a URL that's blocknewyorktimes.com, I guess. And so there's an actual app that blocks
00:15:44.300
all the employees, I think probably the writers, for the New York Times. So you can't see anything
00:15:53.000
that the New York Times produces. Isn't that hilarious? Now, I'm not going to recommend
00:16:00.520
that you use it. I'm not going to use it. Because I want to see everything. But I love
00:16:06.220
the suggestion. Let me put it this way. Imagine you had a job of reporting the news.
00:16:17.300
That's your job. Not only do you have a job of reporting the news, but you're considered the
00:16:24.060
standard. You know, you're the news maker. You're the cream of the crop. And yet, you do your job so
00:16:32.420
badly that somebody spent time to make an app to make sure nobody sees it. That actually happened.
00:16:39.760
Imagine your performance review. So how'd you do here running the New York Times? Well, so poorly
00:16:49.020
that I'm the only news entity in the world that somebody had to build an app to avoid accidental
00:16:56.640
exposure to it. The app lets you avoid accidental exposure to the New York Times because it's so
00:17:05.680
dangerous. And none of that's wrong. None of it's wrong. Right? That's an actual app. It's a real app.
00:17:17.640
People are actually using it. And it does exactly what it says. It prevents you from seeing fake news.
00:17:25.540
I mean, just, just sort of, just sort of sit here for a moment and just process that. It's the New York
00:17:35.480
Times. And somebody made an app to prevent you seeing it so that you'd be protected from fake news.
00:17:41.360
And that's all real. It's not just real that they're doing it. It's real that it works.
00:17:46.380
Like, it actually prevents you from seeing fake news. And again, I don't recommend it. I don't
00:17:55.500
recommend it. You know, Balaji does, and that's fine. But I don't recommend it. I think you should
00:17:59.680
see everything. I'd rather see them dunked on than ignored. But how fascinating that that exists.
00:18:06.800
Did you know that there's a, there's a whole social media platform, it's huge, that is dedicated to
00:18:15.240
nothing but giving bad relationship advice. Do you know about this? It's like huge. I don't even
00:18:22.860
know how many users, but like a god awful number of users. And the entire thing is dedicated to
00:18:27.780
giving bad relationship advice. It's called Instagram. Instagram. Have you heard of that? Instagram? Yeah.
00:18:36.200
Have you spent any time looking at the relation experts on Instagram? It's terrible advice. And they
00:18:47.000
all have this really annoying confidence. It's the confidence that kills me. It's usually people in
00:18:56.580
their 30s. It seems to concentrate around there, maybe some early 40s. And they're quite experts in
00:19:06.880
relationships because they were married once. Or they're not married or something. I don't know.
00:19:13.820
How in the world do they become experts? Lance says, is Scott trying to get a new wife on
00:19:21.520
Instagram? No. No. I think I gave my answer to that yesterday. I won't repeat it. But do not take
00:19:32.200
relationship advice from Instagram. Here's another person you should not take Instagram advice, or you
00:19:39.340
should not take relationship advice from. Jordan Peterson. Anybody want to push back? Do not take
00:19:49.680
relationship advice from Jordan Peterson. By the way, Jordan Peterson is a national treasure.
00:19:56.400
I have a super high opinion of his intelligence and his value to the country. He has one blind spot
00:20:03.200
that's dangerous. I'd love to talk to him about this. I finally found something I could disagree with
00:20:09.100
him. I never wanted to interview him or vice versa, because I didn't have anything to say.
00:20:15.520
Yeah, I generally agree with what he says, and then there's nothing to talk about. But he's very
00:20:22.240
pro-marriage, and he has strong arguments for it, because he has strong arguments for everything he
00:20:27.500
argues. But his blind spot is it's just not going to work for 80% of normal people. Jordan Peterson
00:20:35.120
is a high-functioning person who probably, just guessing, probably married a very high-functioning
00:20:41.980
other person. And they may be just the kind of people, and they may have played it just right
00:20:47.780
to make it work. Maybe. I don't know. But what I know for sure is that advice that fits people who
00:20:54.280
are in just the right situation isn't going to fit for many people. Let me give you another context
00:21:01.000
here. So I've been married twice. Both of them ended. You think that's a failure. I think that you see it
00:21:09.020
as buying a wife, I see it as renting. And I never thought that either of them would last,
00:21:13.960
frankly. I mean, I tried. I wanted them to. So I put 100% effort into making the last. But I didn't
00:21:21.360
expect it, because I live in the real world. And I know that people change, and it's just not a model
00:21:27.700
that works for everybody in the long run. So here's my take. My first wife and my second wife had
00:21:36.060
something in common. They were very high-functioning people. Meaning if you had a problem to solve,
00:21:42.320
call them. They're really good at solving problems. You know, very smart. Both very capable. You know,
00:21:49.140
one is a successful entrepreneur. You know, one has got that instrument rating, aircraft instrument
00:21:56.060
rating. You have no idea how hard that is. Classic pianist, right? So we're talking about really
00:22:01.940
high-functioning people. Now, I like to think of myself as a high-functioning person as well.
00:22:07.620
You know, educated, you're reasonable, not insane. And as I said to both of my wives while I was still
00:22:15.220
married, if the two of us can't make marriage work, there's something wrong with marriage.
00:22:24.120
That's hard to say, because you're not designed to acknowledge that. You're designed to think that
00:22:29.640
marriage is great, and if you didn't make it work, there's something wrong with you or the person
00:22:33.660
you picked, right? We just automatically say, marriage, good. If you failed, you're not as
00:22:41.560
trying as hard as Jordan Peterson is. If you could try hard like Jordan Peterson, you would be successful
00:22:47.980
too. No. No. If you put me and either one of my wives on any other project and said, make this
00:22:57.600
work, how do you think that would have turned out? Really well. Because either one of my prior
00:23:04.320
wives, plus me, could make almost any fucking thing work. Just about anything. We made every other
00:23:11.280
thing work, right? Every other aspect of life. Everyone. We made money work. We made, you know,
00:23:20.020
kids stuff work. We made safety. We were healthy. Absolutely every other thing that you have to work
00:23:27.520
on. We nailed it. But just this one thing. We couldn't make work twice. Two different times
00:23:33.700
with me. You have to. You're going to have to start understanding. It's the system, right? It's not you.
00:23:43.020
Give yourself a break. I have a pretty high opinion of my ability to solve problems. If you throw me
00:23:51.800
into almost any environment, I do well. You can throw me into weirdest situations. I'll do well.
00:24:00.020
But I couldn't make that work. Not even close. It was the system. All right. I talk about that too
00:24:08.480
much. All right. More about FTX. Here's the most important part is I wondered how does somebody
00:24:16.520
like this Sam Bankman-Fried character who was out of FTX, where does he come from? And I thought
00:24:24.840
about it and I got it. Allegedly, his parents are well-known, but I'm not sure that's real
00:24:31.820
news. Here's who I think his parents are. Mom, Dad, Sam. We'll do it again. Mom, Dad, Sam. I think
00:24:54.400
I nailed it. That took me all morning to figure that one out. All right. More about FTX. So even
00:25:05.580
Ken Griffin, who is one of the top donors to the Republican Party, was saying that, well,
00:25:15.940
apparently there are some strong connections between, all right, let me give you the whole
00:25:21.280
conspiracy theory. I'll just lay out the conspiracy theory, okay? This is not me telling you this
00:25:26.860
is exactly true, because you should have high skepticism about this next part. But the facts
00:25:34.140
appear clear. Would you agree that the United States gave a lot of money to Ukraine? Of course
00:25:40.380
you would. We also know now that Ukraine gave a lot of money to this FTX company.
00:25:45.840
Interestingly. And then the FTX company gave the money back to the Democrats. He was the third
00:25:56.840
biggest donor. And it was enough money to affect the election. It was that much money. So the
00:26:03.220
Democrats give money to Ukraine. Ukraine gives it to FTX. FTX gives the money back to Democrats.
00:26:10.580
Now, I believe that those facts are in evidence. Now, what's not in evidence is intention. Let's
00:26:22.000
be clear. Nobody has provided any evidence of intention. It's just those entities connected
00:26:30.100
in that way. But the effect of it was money laundering, right? Doesn't mean it was a crime. And it
00:26:39.240
doesn't mean anybody thought of it in those ways. But that's what happened. America sent
00:26:44.260
it to Ukraine. Ukraine sent it to a fake entity. The fake entity sent it to the Democrats.
00:26:53.660
Now, apparently, there's also a line on the FTX balance sheet. This is what Ken Griffin said.
00:26:59.540
There's a line on the balance sheet that is labeled, Trump lose. It's on the balance sheet. Trump
00:27:10.880
lose. In other words, they were so political that even their balance sheet had a war fund
00:27:18.360
for defeating Trump. Just like any normal company, right? Don't most companies have a line labeled
00:27:26.640
on their balance sheet for which political person they want to defeat. Very normal stuff. No, not
00:27:33.280
normal. So as Ken Griffin says, cryptically, this is something you want to look into. I'm paraphrasing.
00:27:42.760
But when somebody as rich as Ken Griffin looks at a balance sheet, you listen, right? Let's put it
00:27:51.960
another way. If somebody else looks at a balance sheet, you go, whatever. But if Ken Griffin looks at a
00:27:57.920
balance sheet and says, you need to look into this, you'd better look into it. That's not an ordinary
00:28:04.240
person telling you to look into it. You better look into it. And apparently, I mean, I guess the number
00:28:12.860
two person at FTX is sort of a ghost. You know, there's not much press about him. But apparently, he had
00:28:21.120
all, he worked for Bill Clinton. Let me say it again, the number two person at FTX was a staffer for Bill
00:28:29.860
Clinton. Right? So these two guys, and Sam Bankman-Fried's mother is a huge Democrat operative, right?
00:28:38.020
So he is as Democrat as you could possibly be. And it's all connected. So we don't know what this
00:28:49.980
will be when we get to the bottom of it, but wow. Now, I have this advice for you. You should
00:28:58.940
never, never, do not ever judge a man by his haircut. Don't do that. Never judge a man by his
00:29:07.100
haircut. But if you did, it would have worked out for you. Now, that's probably a coincidence. But
00:29:13.800
don't judge people by their appearance. I'm just saying that if you did, you would be a really good
00:29:19.040
predictor of things. And that's just a coincidence. So don't do it. Don't do it again, no matter how
00:29:25.400
many times it's worked in the past. Sure, it's worked every time you've tried it in the past. But
00:29:30.320
there's no science to it. Don't do it. Boris Johnson. There's some new science about how
00:29:43.420
to make mice more selfish. Oh, I guess there's more to it. They weren't really just trying
00:29:51.120
to make mice selfish. They were testing to see if maybe humans could be influenced to be more
00:29:58.440
generous because they could make mice more selfish. You know, they won't share their food
00:30:07.220
or more willing to share. And they know what to tweak in the mouse's brain. They do believe
00:30:15.140
there's a high chance that they could tweak the same thing in a human's brain. So they could tweak
00:30:21.540
something in your brain and that would make you more selfish or less selfish. Well, how is that
00:30:27.720
possible? What about your free will? What? How could you have free will if changing the brain
00:30:37.480
structure changes how you act? That doesn't make sense. All right, there's a big, big, big thing
00:30:45.780
coming down the road towards humanity that is completely invisible to you and most people
00:30:52.080
because if you don't have sort of a background or an interest in that field, you've just completely
00:30:58.020
missed what's coming. The biggest mind fuck in all of human civilization is barreling toward us
00:31:06.740
at 100 miles an hour. It's going to happen in the next, I don't know, three years. It's a combination
00:31:13.460
of this kind of science where we can prove that you can make somebody do anything just by tweaking
00:31:20.060
their brain. So where does that leave free will? If you can change the physical part of the brain
00:31:25.940
and it guaranteed will make you act different, where's your free will? Obviously, it doesn't exist.
00:31:31.480
Then we're going to have AI that acts exactly like a human and we won't know what consciousness is
00:31:37.600
anymore because the AI will have it. It will. It doesn't, but it will. For all practical purposes,
00:31:46.200
you won't be able to tell the difference from the outside. And it will even report that it does have
00:31:50.760
consciousness. It'll tell you it does. It'll tell you what it feels. And that's all you'll know.
00:31:56.120
So you've got AI, you've got robots, you've got this kind of science. All of it's leading to the
00:32:04.980
same place. Our most basic assumptions about who we are as a species, it's all going to be gone in
00:32:12.580
three years. And I don't know what that does. I have no idea where that leaves you. Because your
00:32:18.460
entire sense of who you are determines everything you do. And your sense of who you are is going to
00:32:25.140
be obliterated. And don't be surprised if the simulation gets a lot more attention as well.
00:32:33.340
Because the simulation would suggest that everything you know about who you are is wrong as well.
00:32:38.320
By the way, Elon Musk mentioned the simulation again this morning. I didn't understand his tweet,
00:32:44.460
but I liked it because it mentioned the simulation. Well, it turns out that the Proud Boys,
00:32:50.140
the number two guy in the organization was an FBI informant, as were several other people in the
00:32:56.180
organization, as well as several other so-called extremist organizations. I'm not sure the Proud Boys
00:33:03.560
are extremists, but the groups that are extremists, if any of them are, had a bunch of FBI in them.
00:33:11.280
Now, a number of people were worried that we might have a civil war. Is anybody worried about a civil war?
00:33:16.640
Yeah, I don't think there'll be a civil war, and here's why. I don't know if these extremist
00:33:23.000
groups have enough FBI informants to get that going. Right? Like, I still think, you know,
00:33:29.700
you're going to have a meeting of one of these groups, and like, one of the informants will be,
00:33:33.300
I've got an idea. And then the others will look at them like, what the fuck?
00:33:37.580
Fight with people. We don't want to take over. No capital.
00:33:45.440
The first FBI agent, hey, let's take over a capital. The second person says, I second that.
00:33:50.060
That's a great idea. Well, now it gives you pause, but still not enough to make you take over a capital.
00:33:56.280
I think out of a group of 10 people, you might need maybe seven FBI agents to get a good,
00:34:03.360
get a good capital takeover going, five to seven. And I feel like the FBI informant ratio to extremists
00:34:12.840
is probably in the 30% range. And I think you'd have to get that up to like 50 to 70
00:34:19.060
before they could have enough energy to get the civil war going. So I think the FBI is a little,
00:34:25.620
a little underpowered now. They don't quite have the juice to make that happen. So don't worry.
00:34:30.560
Don't worry. Don't worry. There is a rumor on the internet that I backed DeSantis because I said
00:34:39.200
some good things about him. Wrong. Let me say as clearly as possible, I do not back DeSantis for
00:34:47.480
president, which is different from saying he might be a good one. I don't know. Maybe. I do not back him.
00:34:53.940
I'm a single issue voter, single issue. And I'm going to be a maniac on that. I'm not changing.
00:35:02.100
So if, and let me say this as clearly as possible. If John Fetterman ran for president in 2024,
00:35:10.580
and he was the only one with a real fentanyl plan, I would support John Fetterman. And I'm not joking.
00:35:16.140
I'm not joking. You got that? I'm going to be a maniac on this. There's no backing down, right?
00:35:25.340
Yeah. No, seriously. I'm not lying. I would back Fetterman if he had a real, now the odds of that
00:35:31.440
are zero, right? So it's not real. But I would. I would. So don't be surprised if that happens.
00:35:39.280
Well, you should be surprised if that happens. You should be surprised if Fetterman runs for
00:35:45.540
president. But if he did, that part doesn't surprise you. All right. Is it my imagination
00:35:53.460
or does the name DeSantis have too many of the letters for sanity in it? Like DeSantis, sanity,
00:36:03.480
Santa's sanity? Is it weird that he's considered the option to Trump? Like that's a little too
00:36:13.180
perfect, isn't it? Oh, you see Satan. I suppose it's like a Rorschach test, right? You either
00:36:20.200
see sanity or Satan. Yeah, it could go either way. All right. I think a fentanyl plan is the
00:36:30.580
minimum requirement for a politician to prove that they give a shit about the country. Any
00:36:37.760
politician who's running without a serious fentanyl plan, and I don't mean border security
00:36:42.900
and increasing the penalties for dealers. That's 10% of it, right? But any politician who doesn't
00:36:51.680
have a serious plan, whether it's Carrie Lake or Trump or anybody else, they're below the level
00:36:56.700
of giving a shit about the country. Those would be people who are running for their own purposes.
00:37:03.500
If you want to run for my purpose, and I would say that your purpose as well, well, maybe you pay
00:37:08.820
attention to the biggest problem. If you're not paying attention to the biggest problem that's
00:37:13.440
killing young people, fuck you. Well, why would I give you my support? You got to do the minimum.
00:37:19.560
At least show some interest in the country. Just a little bit of interest in the country. That's
00:37:26.440
all. All right. I've been watching with amusement and interest as Mike Cernovich is trying to bury
00:37:38.380
Trump, at least as a candidate. And he points out, Mike pointed out in a few tweets today that
00:37:45.700
eight GOP primaries were DNC-backed Trump candidates. So that's where the Democrats did the dirty trick
00:37:52.540
of backing a Republican, because they thought it would be the worst one, because it was somebody
00:37:57.460
who supported Trump. And sure enough, that strategy worked. Trump was two for 16 in the toss-up races.
00:38:05.080
Now, as Mike Cernovich points out, we should not be looking at the races that somebody won somewhat
00:38:10.940
easily. You know, the big, like DeSantis or Abbott. You should look at the close races where there
00:38:17.960
was a real Trump factor. And in the close one where Trump was a major factor, he only won two
00:38:23.100
of 16. Now, somebody else may interpret this differently, so I'm giving you one take.
00:38:31.040
Here's my question to you. Does Mike Cernovich have the persuasive power
00:38:48.820
All right. Who would be the most qualified person to answer the question?
00:38:56.840
Who in the entire world would be the most qualified
00:39:00.040
to answer the question, could Mike Cernovich stop Trump from succeeding?
00:39:04.600
It's me. It's me. It's me. And there's nobody's close. Right? It's totally me. And the answer
00:39:14.360
is yes. Yes, he could. Yeah. Yeah. Mike Cernovich does have the toolbox that if he wants to push
00:39:22.520
it, and it looks like he does, he could prevent Trump from getting the nomination. Now, that doesn't
00:39:28.020
mean 100%. Like, I'm not saying, oh, it's a lock. But he does have the ability. Yeah.
00:39:34.600
And I know you don't believe that. But you did believe I'm the best person to judge it, didn't
00:39:40.520
you? And I wouldn't lie about it. I don't have any reason to. Right? No, you might be surprised.
00:39:47.840
And I would argue that there are a number of people who could stop him. So Cernovich would
00:39:52.840
be one. Who else could? Who else, if they went total anti-Trump, could just stop him?
00:39:59.400
Ivanka? Right? Ivanka could stop him in a heartbeat. All she'd have to do is say, I'm not going to
00:40:07.220
support this. It would be all over. You're saying Cialdini? Well, maybe. Tucker? I don't know if the
00:40:18.040
pundits can stop him. And here's why. People would expect the pundits to support him if he got
00:40:24.520
nominated. Wouldn't you? Do you think Fox News would not support Trump if he got nominated?
00:40:31.580
I think they would. I think. I mean, I don't think they're going to go Democrat and they're
00:40:37.080
not going to sit it out. So I don't think that the Fox personalities could stop it with the
00:40:44.040
exception of Hannity. Hannity might be able to stop it. See, Tucker's interesting because he goes,
00:40:51.060
he'll go wherever the news is, right? You know, Tucker can, you know, he's like a more flexible
00:40:57.760
character. But if Hannity, who's actually good friends with the president, if Hannity decided
00:41:04.700
to not support him, like hard line, Bannon, Bannon's another one, could Ben Shapiro stop him?
00:41:13.840
Well, what does Shapiro say? He's not pro-Trump at the moment, right? If he ever was. I don't
00:41:21.380
know if he ever was. Yeah. All right. So let's just take the people we know. So suppose Fox
00:41:31.480
News is against Trump. The Daily Wire is against Trump. I don't know if they all are, but, you
00:41:37.220
know, let's say Ben is. Cernovich is against him and I'm not supporting him because he doesn't
00:41:46.140
have a fentanyl plan. Candace Owens. Candace Owens is saying he's not giving us enough. Do you
00:41:56.760
think, do you think that Trump could succeed with those personalities against him? I don't
00:42:08.740
think so. I don't think so. Yeah, I don't think he could. But do you think, see, here's where
00:42:17.240
a prediction doesn't work. Do you think he could change your mind? Do you think Trump could
00:42:24.100
change the minds of all of these people? Yes. Yes, he could. Do you think he could change
00:42:30.860
Mike Cernovich's mind? No. No, he might be the only one whose mind you couldn't change.
00:42:39.120
He might still, you know, in the end, he might have to make a practical choice about, you know,
00:42:44.400
who to support if it comes down to two people in the end. But I don't think he's not the kind
00:42:50.380
who's just going to go with the politics. Yeah. Yeah, I don't think, I don't think they're
00:42:57.560
going to go full Biden. That's for sure. But fewer people might vote. That's, that's the
00:43:01.980
thing. All right. Ali Alexander had an interesting article today and was it The Spectator or something?
00:43:11.280
I don't know. I forget which publication. But he makes a strong case that only Trump can win the
00:43:17.560
primary. Because, you know, given, given all the noise about the midterms, etc., Trump still has a
00:43:24.860
commanding lead and there's nobody close. DeSantis isn't even close. So it's over, right? Because Trump
00:43:34.220
will win the primary. And then everybody who says, oh, my God, we can't have a Democrat. They can say,
00:43:39.760
well, we don't want Trump, but we only have this one choice, except for Democrats. So the Ali
00:43:46.340
Alexander argument is strong. That's a strong argument. The polls completely back up Ali's
00:43:53.420
point that it doesn't matter what the experts say, the numbers are the numbers. And Trump has a huge
00:44:02.180
commanding advantage over every other competitor. So that's the end of it, right? If he wants it,
00:44:08.320
this is. Here's the counterargument. Well, the counterargument is it doesn't matter who's
00:44:18.800
running because it's just about the ballot collecting process. So it wouldn't make any
00:44:24.120
difference. Now, the counterargument, here's the new one that I'm going to insert. Trump plus
00:44:33.520
Cary Lake is a monster that nobody has assessed. It's a monster. Could be a good monster. Could be a
00:44:44.400
bad monster. But it's a fucking monster. And if you discount the monster, you're not even trying,
00:44:52.340
right? That's not a good analysis, right? When the monster enters the contest,
00:44:57.800
anything could happen. Like, all bets are off. It's monster time, right? You might like the monster.
00:45:08.360
Yeah, what else is going on? There's a report. There's a report that Putin delayed the
00:45:22.020
retreat from Kursan and Ukraine until after the midterms because he didn't want Biden to have a win,
00:45:29.420
which would suggest that Putin prefers Trump as president or non-Biden. Actually, it only prefers,
00:45:40.460
it suggests he wants non-Biden. That's different. Yeah. I don't know what that means. I'm not sure how to
00:45:52.300
analyze that. But it's interesting. I don't know. That Russia, they can't stop doing stuff to us.
00:46:01.360
All right. Let's talk fentanyl. I did a thread. Most of you know the thread. You know that
00:46:07.000
most of you have been educated on fentanyl in ways others have not. Good border security might be 5%
00:46:13.660
of the problem because most of it's coming in tunnels anyway. It's coming in tunnels. It can come by
00:46:19.340
water. It's so light that fentanyl is. It's so light and small. There's just a million ways to
00:46:26.120
get it in. The only reason the fentanyl is being caught at the border now is that it's easy. Like
00:46:32.560
it's easy to just drive it across the border. If you close the border up tight, it's still easy.
00:46:39.200
They just use a different method, such as walk up to the wall and you take a little package that's
00:46:45.860
the size of a softball and it's enough to kill everybody in the United States. And you say,
00:46:50.800
hey, Juan, catch. And you throw it over the wall to Juan on the other side. That's it. There's no way
00:46:57.080
a wall is going to stop fentanyl. Now, a wall might stop marijuana. It might stop marijuana. Do you know
00:47:04.220
why? Because you can't make money on marijuana that would fit in your hand and you could toss over a
00:47:10.560
wall? Like you need some quantity, right? So the wall doesn't work. Executing dealers. I don't think
00:47:20.460
we've seen the death penalty really change behavior too much. But I'm in favor of it. It just won't.
00:47:26.700
It's not a solution. So those are like five or 10% solutions. The only solutions that I think are
00:47:32.520
possible, one would be some kind of legalization concept. But that's completely screwed by the fact
00:47:39.720
that the San Francisco open air drug experiment was a disaster. But they focused on like homeless
00:47:48.760
people and they created a zombie apocalypse in the middle of a major city. That's not the way to do
00:47:55.460
that. That would be doing everything wrong, right? The fentanyl problem is not a homeless problem.
00:48:04.460
The fentanyl problem is a, you know, middle class teenager problem. And, you know, ordinary people
00:48:11.820
who have jobs and stuff. So that's not the group that's going to become the walking zombies in the
00:48:17.340
middle of the city. That's the group who are functional addicts who go to their job every day.
00:48:23.700
And you didn't even know they were addicts. So, uh, so the main thing you need to know is that
00:48:32.580
some people do buy fentanyl directly. Some addicts, they look for fentanyl and they know they have
00:48:38.900
fentanyl. If you're an addict and you know you have fentanyl, how dangerous is it? Still dangerous,
00:48:46.700
but they're not the ones dying of all the overdoses. Because if you know what you have and you're sort
00:48:51.880
of an expert at this because you're an addict, then you know how to do the things that will reduce
00:48:58.060
the chance you'll die. And they do. So it's the people who don't know that it's baked into the other
00:49:03.340
drugs they're buying. They think they're buying Xanax or something and they get fentanyl and then they die.
00:49:07.160
So, um, what will work is not the San Francisco, uh, open air drug experiment, but the thing I would
00:49:17.100
test is a pill substitute, not an injection, not an injection, a pill substitute for people who are,
00:49:26.480
you know, absolutely addicted. That is the safest, you know, measured alternative. So it doesn't get you
00:49:34.300
cleaned, but perhaps maybe you agree to some counseling or you agree to be exposed to some
00:49:42.200
options for getting treatment, something like that. Um, I think there are things that could be tested
00:49:49.040
that are so far from the San Francisco debacle that that's worth doing. I don't know what would work.
00:49:55.020
That's why you test it. Then the other thing would be just to, uh, mow the lawn in Mexico, as I like to
00:50:00.680
say. And the reasons I say mow the lawn is that we should not imagine it's one and done. You don't
00:50:07.620
mow the lawn once. You keep mowing the lawn, right? And, uh, apparently I need a fact check on this,
00:50:16.620
but apparently we can identify where the fentanyl labs are. Can somebody give me a fact check on that?
00:50:22.840
I heard it said that we do know where the fentanyl labs are in Mexico. I don't know if that's true,
00:50:31.440
but if we do, we shouldn't mow the lawn. Just, just reduce it to dirt with special forces. And then
00:50:39.940
it'll pop up in another place, right? And then you mow it and it pops up. Then you mow it and repeat.
00:50:47.440
And you just do it every day until the business model changes. Here's how the business model would
00:50:53.380
change. Oh, shit. If we sell cocaine, they don't bomb us. If we sell heroin, they don't bomb us.
00:51:01.660
If we, if we sell fentanyl, same profit, they bomb us. So do, do what kills fewer people and you don't get
00:51:12.200
bond. So we could give them an option. Here's, here's how I would do it. If I were running for
00:51:17.660
president, I would say Mexico, uh, here's the satellite map of one of the big fentanyl plants
00:51:24.860
in one week, this is going to disappear. We'd love to talk to the heads of the cartel about getting
00:51:31.020
out of this business entirely, but we're going to do this as our opening bid. And then you make it
00:51:36.020
disappear. Then you hold up another sign a week later and say, here's the next fentanyl lab.
00:51:41.160
This one will disappear on Tuesday. Now, of course they'd be, you know, moving their assets as
00:51:46.600
quickly as they can, but you make whatever's left disappear. And then on Thursday, here's the third
00:51:53.800
one. This one's going to disappear on Friday morning. It disappears. You can make them do any
00:52:00.900
fucking thing you want. You just have to put enough pressure on them. All right.
00:52:05.240
That, ladies and gentlemen, is the interesting part. And now the whiteboard. I'd like to share with
00:52:16.540
you my personal journey, which has been complicated by people in the news lately.
00:52:21.360
As you already know, I was born a white colonizer. Back in 1957, a young child was born in Catskill,
00:52:34.940
New York. And sadly, he was a white colonizer. Now, to be fair, this baby did not colonize anything
00:52:43.800
by himself. But he is part of a demographic that are well known as white devils, white colonizers,
00:52:51.440
white supremacists, dare I say. And I didn't want any part of that. I thought to myself, I don't want
00:52:56.660
to be a white colonizer. Sure, I haven't personally colonized anything, but still. So I decided to
00:53:03.460
identify as black. I did this several years ago. I did it for the benefits. With all due respect,
00:53:08.560
by the way, I love the black community. I'm happy to associate with them. Black lives matter.
00:53:15.360
So, and like all the people who are applying for college, is it one third of white kids applying
00:53:24.180
for college or identifying as black now to get the benefits? So I'm looking for that kind of benefit.
00:53:30.180
But then it got complicated. Here I am identifying as black, and then Connie tells me I'm a Jew.
00:53:35.740
So I started as a white colonizer. I identified as black. Kanye re-identified me as a Jew. But
00:53:46.740
then there are other black people who are telling me that the Jewish people are actually white colonizers.
00:54:12.780
You try not to be a white colonizer. But can you do it? No. It's like the mafia. You can't get out.
00:54:19.340
I mean, I went all the way from black to Jew to white colonizer again.
00:54:27.300
Is this complicated? I don't know what the rest of you are doing, but my life's all complicated now.
00:54:36.340
All right. It's a circle of life. Yeah. It's a circle of life.
00:54:39.380
I'm just letting this one absorb for a little bit.
00:54:53.240
I'll let you live with this one for a little bit.
00:54:58.920
All right. So I'm having a fun time, in a bad way, I suppose, watching what's happening to Chappelle.
00:55:09.380
And, you know, I get, you know, I get why the Jewish community is, you know, wants to, you know, hit him with a brushback pitch.
00:55:25.220
But, and part of the, part of the reason for that is people don't understand that apparently, I was, you know, reading up on this today.
00:55:33.100
Apparently there's a fairly big or growing anti-Semitic wing of the black American demographic.
00:55:46.160
Before the yay thing, how many of you knew that there was some kind of growing,
00:55:50.860
and some of it might have been based on that weird little book called Hebrew, what, Negro to Hebrew or something?
00:56:01.740
That's the name of the book. I'm not saying that.
00:56:03.500
Now, once you know that context, then you understand why the Jewish reaction was stronger than maybe some of you thought it should be.
00:56:16.800
Because there actually is a growing, dangerous, you know, thread of thought that they're trying to, you know,
00:56:23.080
they're trying to stamp it down while it's still an ember, right?
00:56:26.080
If we get it in its ember form, maybe it won't flame up.
00:56:30.640
So I'd say that the Jewish community has responded quite smartly for its interests and probably the world.
00:56:40.540
They did come down hard, came down pretty hard.
00:56:44.300
But, you know, they're also dealing with adults.
00:56:48.720
Adults who know how to apologize, adults who know how to learn things, adults who know how to, you know, clarify.
00:56:57.700
So I don't defend Yeh and I don't defend Chappelle.
00:57:02.600
They're adults and they're walking into their situation with their eyes open.
00:57:08.340
But I do think maybe Chappelle needs a little more awareness, which she probably has by now,
00:57:14.360
that if you don't deal with the fact that this growing ember could be seriously dangerous,
00:57:21.600
you're not, you can't be taken completely seriously.
00:57:40.160
you don't get to be a bigot because you're on drugs.
00:57:56.100
But still, we do take him seriously because he's not just a joker.
00:58:32.340
Are you surprised that Republicans are so, let's say, peaceful?
00:58:46.240
So far, things look exactly like I thought they would.
00:58:54.600
The losing side would say there was some, you know, something bad.
00:59:04.480
But I think the Democrats did a good job of saying that if you did deny the election,
00:59:24.860
Don't deny the result, because we have to move forward, right?
00:59:36.280
You know, you could, of course, audit and see if there's any problems.
00:59:39.340
But go after the credibility, because nobody can defend the credibility.
00:59:45.040
Because you just look at the public and say, well, it's not my opinion.
00:59:49.760
Here's a poll that says half of the public doesn't trust the election.
01:00:01.900
The solution is not that they should be smarter.
01:00:09.380
And credibility has to be the number one requirement of the system,
01:00:16.200
Here, here's the part that really tells me who you are.
01:00:18.360
If you could have only one of these two things work perfectly,
01:00:37.660
Is that better than having accuracy 100% but credibility low?
01:00:48.940
I'm sure every engineer will tell you the same answer.
01:00:52.820
You build for credibility, and you hope you get the other stuff right.
01:00:59.180
You don't build for accuracy and then say, oh, I hope it's credible too.
01:01:08.520
Is there any engineer here who can back me on that?
01:01:20.840
Now, if you were going to put the specifications for an election system on paper,
01:01:26.220
credibility would be number one, and you would give up nothing.
01:01:30.820
You would make no accommodations for credibility.
01:01:36.480
and then everything else, like convenience and how long the line is,
01:01:40.720
and can grandma vote at home, and all of those other things.
01:01:46.240
Because credibility, you lose that, and you lose everything.
01:01:52.780
But if your accuracy is a little sketchy, that's just life.
01:01:56.020
How many of you could get used to the fact that the elections are only 95% accurate?
01:02:06.360
so these close elections are just sort of a coin toss.
01:02:12.800
The truth is, they're not accurate enough to really know who won in a close election.
01:02:23.860
And I actually don't have a big problem if the candidate who wasn't my first choice
01:02:28.700
became so close to the other candidate that it was sort of a coin to us.
01:02:34.000
You know, I'm not going to complain about the other person winning.
01:02:37.780
Because to me, that's the country getting what they wanted.
01:02:39.780
Why would I begrudge the rest of the country getting what they want?
01:02:45.660
You know, or at least it'd be a tie in terms of who wanted what.
01:02:52.700
Yeah, if the GOP can't find real evidence of fraud,
01:03:03.400
The Trump approach has been to look like a whining loser.
01:03:19.840
How can you make Democrats think the elections aren't credible?
01:03:26.960
How do you make Democrats believe the elections are not credible?
01:03:39.440
Because it's happened every time a Republican won a close race.
01:03:57.000
Oh, Peterson said clean up the elections first.
01:04:16.120
So as soon as the election is over, Biden's health is going to fail?
01:04:25.500
If it turns out that Kamala becomes president before Biden's term is over, that opens the vice presidency.
01:04:37.540
But now that the Senate is not going to be deadlocked no matter what, then you don't have that cool outcome where the Republicans could keep the vice presidency unfilled by not approving anybody.
01:04:56.360
I guess they would approve a vice president because it wouldn't change anything.
01:05:03.220
Even if Walker wins, that doesn't help anything, right?
01:05:15.500
I thought we were already past that, and I thought the Democrats owned the Senate no matter what.
01:05:26.880
I could swear the news said that it's over and the Democrats owned the Senate.
01:05:48.100
Because the news I read is opposite of the news you're reading.
01:05:58.860
Because you couldn't all be that wrong, so it must be me, right?
01:06:24.680
I think, so if Trump is going to announce something tonight at 9 Eastern, should I live stream from the man cave?
01:06:39.620
And not only will it be one of the most fun man caves.
01:06:43.480
You don't get to see the man caves if you're on YouTube here.
01:06:46.300
But the locals community gets to see the extra special content.
01:07:05.740
So we actually could have that situation still.