Episode 1989 Scott Adams: The Hypnotist Persuasion Filter Applied To Headlines
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 29 minutes
Words per Minute
148.10503
Summary
Sometimes the headlines are just made for me, and today is one of those days. I m proud of my prediction from 20 years ago that even a little bit of alcohol isn t good for you. Well, the New York Times has an article today that I did not bother to read because the headlines agreed with me.
Transcript
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civilization. Nothing's ever been better. Nothing ever will be. But today you're in the perfect
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place. Everything's coming together today. I promise you today will be one of my best
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live streams of all time. Sometimes the headlines are just made for me. Today is one of those days.
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And if you'd like to join me in a peak experience, one of the best things that's ever happened,
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all you need is a cupper mugger, a glass of tanker, chalice of stein, a canteen, a jug, a flask,
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a vessel of any kind, fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now in the
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unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better.
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Well, I love you right back, broker Natalie. We all love each other.
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Well, have I ever told you that I'm proud of my prediction from 20 years ago or so that even a
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little bit of alcohol isn't good for you? Well, the New York Times has an article today that I did not
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bother to read because the headlines agreed with me. That's a good rule of thumb. We know now that
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the headline of articles don't have much correlation to the actual article.
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I don't know when that started, but it's definitely a thing that the headline and the article don't
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match. So when I see a headline that I agree with, I don't read the article because I want to buy into
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the headline. But if I disagree with the headline, well, I'll read the article to find out the headline
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is misleading. That's the way I play it. How do you play it? Different. All right. Well, here's an
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example of that. So we can't trust any scientific study. I think we've all learned that. But according
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to the New York Times, even a little bit of alcohol can harm your health, research shows.
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Now, does this mean I'm right because the newer research agrees with what I predicted 20 years ago?
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No. No, unfortunately. Unfortunately, no. But I do feel as if the tide is turning. Even if it's only
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the tide of what they're reporting, who knows what the truth is. But it did seem to me that this was an
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obvious thing that would happen in the future. Now, sometimes you can just predict the future
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by saying, what is something that everybody believes to be true? And just predict the opposite.
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And if you wait long enough, somebody's going to have some science that says, you know, everything
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you believed was true about everything. It was all wrong. I think you'd be right about 80% of the time.
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You could just pick any topic that science says is definitely true. Oh, we all agree this is true.
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And just say it isn't. And wait 20 years. See what happens. You'll look like a prophet 80% of the time.
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20% of the time, maybe smoking is bad for you, and that's never going to change.
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Everything else, subject to interpretation. Well, I asked this question
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on social media, on Twitter. I asked, this was a poll just for the men.
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Just for the men. And he asked if the men had ever, ever met a woman with fewer problems than their own.
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60% of the respondents said no, that the women they met, all of them, had more problems than they do.
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All of them. Barely every woman they've ever met.
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But how many men, we'll just see how good you are here.
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How many men do you think responded that they have met women who have fewer problems than they do?
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Without even seeing the poll, you knew the answer to that.
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That the way men find happiness and meaning is giving women what they want.
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Which usually is directly or indirectly revolving around procreation and creating the next generation.
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Women, however, have a slightly different operating system.
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That they have to have more problems than the guy they're with, or at least present that they do.
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Because that's how they get the guy to activate.
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Because the guy isn't going to activate just on, you know, a casual preference, maybe.
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But, oh, I'm going to die if I don't, you know, turn up the heat.
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If I don't eat in 10 minutes, you know, I'll be killing somebody.
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So, have you ever tried to tell a woman you have a problem?
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I used to think, I must have an unusually small number of problems.
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I must have, there must be something about me where I've just solved all my problems.
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And then it occurred to me, maybe I should ask other men.
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Because maybe they're having the same experience.
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Sure enough, men have the impression, and again, it would just be an impression,
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But just the impression that the women have more problems.
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But I think it has more to do with the fact that the women's operating system
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And the man's operating system is to look strong and to maybe hide the problem.
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Now, it probably gets reversed when you go to the doctor.
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You know, I hear that men are taken more seriously at the doctor.
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But in general, in general, would you agree with the hypothesis?
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But would you agree that it's a reasonable hypothesis
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that women need to present themselves as the one with more problems?
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You know, it doesn't necessarily mean it's broken.
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It was a few days ago about the cousin of one of the Black Lives Matter founders
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was stopped by the police, and he seemed to be pretty hopped up on some drug
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And he resisted arrest, if you can call it that, by trying to sneak away, run away.
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But he was hallucinating and he was in bad shape.
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But in the process of resisting arrest, as it has been interpreted by those who watch the
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But he got tasered majorly, and he was held down, and some combination of things killed him.
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Now, I read the comments about it, and besides the obvious irony that he's related to a Black
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Lives Matter founder, most of the people who saw it said, well, what do you expect?
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If he was involved in something that looked like a traffic accident or something, maybe
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It looked like the police officer was doing everything he could to take this guy who was
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obviously in a psychotic episode, whether any part was natural, we don't know.
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But at the very least, he was probably on drugs.
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So the police officer was trying to keep this frame of the real world, right?
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Are you surprised that a police officer who tried to keep things in the realm of what's
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real didn't get a good outcome with somebody who was fully hallucinating?
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What it looked like to me is a gap in training.
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I'm not going to say under-trained, because they're probably trained up.
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How would a hypnotist have handled that same situation?
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If I had been that police officer, the moment I realized that my frame of what is true and
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real, according to me, didn't have any impact on the person, what do you do?
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When you know that you can't bring the person into your frame, what do you do?
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If you can't get them to your frame, you have to join their frame.
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Because what you don't want to do is be in different frames.
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I'm forgetting some of the crazy stuff he was saying.
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But he was saying that people were trying to kill him.
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So the police officer was doing what looked like a really professional job of keeping
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his cool, being consistent and firm, but he didn't get what he wanted, and then things
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And I have done this in lots of situations, not obviously a dangerous one.
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But in lots of situations, you just enter the frame.
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I'm going to look like I'm arresting you, and you'll be safe.
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We'll get you to safety as soon as possible, and then you can talk to us, and we'll help
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Now, those are, you know, just the quick, off the top of my head examples.
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But what it looks to me is that the police officers are not trained with that specific
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Have you ever heard of a police officer trained to enter an illusion?
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I've never seen it in action, but, you know, I haven't seen every police stop in the world.
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And the reason I'm not going to say they're under-trained is because I doubt that's ever
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Like, I doubt there's anything in the police curriculum or training that would cover that
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I saw in a Mike Cervich feed, he was talking about, there's some science.
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Apparently, this has been well-known for a long time.
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It's been well-known for a long time that if you get a heart transplant, it's common to
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take on the personality of the person who donated the heart.
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Apparently, it's well-understood by people who do, you know, organ transplants.
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Now, here's what I would like to add to that conversation.
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If you think that your body or yourself is a mind, that's one thing, does all the thinking,
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and then a body, that's a separate thing that does the moving.
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You know, the mind tells the body what to move.
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If that's your view of a human, it's very incomplete and misleading.
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Because your personality will completely change based on what's happening to your body.
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If you're hungry, your brain goes a different way.
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If you're cold, if you're horny, if you're sick, if you're like this poor gentleman who died in the traffic stop,
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And I often tell you that I use my body as a sensor to know how to write humor.
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And this is the advantage that humans have over AI.
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When I'm going through the potential jokes I could write, I'm not mentally deciding if they're good.
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Mentally, I'm just deciding if they have the joke form.
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I actually monitor my body and say, okay, did I guffaw?
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So for me, the brain and the body are just always working as one to think.
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So when people talk about, you know, I had a gut feeling,
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I think that actually comes from some kind of, you know, shadow understanding that your body actually is a brain.
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And if you think of it that way, and that would be a reframe, if you think of it that way, I think it explains more.
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It'll explain more of your observations of life.
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You know, obviously, drug addiction is a huge problem in this country.
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We have lots of rehabs and programs, but they're unfortunately not that successful.
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Like, a really good success rate for rehab would be, you tell me, what would any one rehab facility,
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what percentage of people leave the rehab and then never drink?
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Some are saying seventy-five, but I don't think so.
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I think it's seventy-five when they walk out the door, but it doesn't take long to fall back into it.
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When you try to make a drug addict recover, you take them to a terrible environment, rehab.
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You take away all their entertainment, their phones or iPads and stuff.
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You take away all their access to their friends and their loved ones.
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And you give them a boring little room that might be worse than the one they have at home.
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So basically, you take away all their sources of pleasure as well as the drugs.
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How do you like it without the drugs, but also, also, without any other form of pleasure?
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To me, that is how you would design the system to make somebody an addict.
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If you wanted to turn somebody into an addict, I would say, all right, here's your life without the drugs.
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Not only do you have the drug fun, but all the other fun, if you have any fun.
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I wouldn't do a rehab building, like a one house.
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I think you need to build a town, a rehab town.
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It needs to be walled off, and absolutely nothing gets in.
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And you would literally have to be watching for drones and people throwing stuff over them.
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So you'd have to drug test everybody once a week.
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And if you get drugs inside those city walls, you've got to be gone.
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Like, that's got to be, you know, no mercy if you don't pass the drug test.
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So you have a little town, but you make the town way better than normal people's life.
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You get people organized so that they're doing things with each other.
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They're meeting some people, making some connections.
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And they get a taste of what it could be if they did everything right and didn't have alcohol.
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Now, in theory, it should make you say, you know, the best year of my life was in a rehab town.
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He said that the best years of his life were in prison because it cleared his mind for the first time ever.
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Now, I don't think he literally meant that, but there's something to it.
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You know, there's something to having an environment that's right for the situation.
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All of the treatments for everything you can do about drug addiction is unfeasible.
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I know Michael Schellenberger and others have said, you really have to, you know, force people into treatment.
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And what doesn't work is giving them open-air, free drugs.
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I think there's still stuff to test in the domain of legalization.
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I think there's probably a right way and a wrong way to do it.
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The wrong way to do it is to have a place where everybody hangs out.
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That feels like exactly the wrong way to do it.
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Potentially a right way to do it would be to say, all right, you're a drug addict at risk, but you also hold down a job and you have a family.
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So we're not going to treat you like everybody else.
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For you, it's going to be legal and we're going to give you a clean source of supply and also all the resources for breaking the addiction if you want to.
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We're not even going to try to get you into rehab, but we will make sure that you don't get any bad drugs.
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We'll just make sure you've got a clean supply.
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Now, if you say, Scott, Scott, Scott, you don't understand anything about lives or addicts or something, that wouldn't work.
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I'm saying you're answering the wrong question.
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The question is, are we really that smart that we know in advance everything that will work?
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And you might surprise yourself because you're testing one thing and maybe it doesn't work out.
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But somebody involved is smart and they try, like, something within the thing.
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And then accidentally you've discovered something that worked.
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You're not going to solve it by not doing anything because you don't know what to do.
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I'm glad it was tried and I'm glad that Michael Schellenberger shot it down when it didn't work.
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So I don't mind trying stuff that doesn't work.
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And part of my theme of defending people who can't defend themselves.
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I'm now going to defend yet another person that most of you are really mad at.
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And I'm going to defend the first one because he does not have Twitter access at the moment.
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Now, I was alerted to a Sam Harris video in which the person tweeting it said,
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Oh, my God, there he is saying that he wishes more kids had died from COVID.
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If the only thing you heard was that Sam Harris said he wishes more children had died,
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Or would your first reaction be, obviously, that never happened?
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Like, obviously, obviously, that never happened.
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And there were all the comments saying, yeah, there it is.
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He must have said it because all those people heard it.
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Nothing like that was in the article, in the video.
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And so I called it out and said, the video doesn't have anything like that in it.
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What I heard, again, this is just me paraphrasing what I think he said.
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What I heard was the nature of the virus makes it especially difficult to manage in a public way.
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Because the group that is most targeted, the virus targets old people.
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And so you can never be sure, was it the virus or was it not?
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Because some people say, well, maybe they're just dying anyway.
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So it's really hard to create a public policy because there's some ambiguity about who's at risk.
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Hypothetically, and it wasn't a preference for God's sakes.
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He said, hypothetically, if this virus had been preferentially killing children, how would we treat it?
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We would say we don't care if the science is right or wrong.
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If you saw children dying at the rate that the older people were dying, we would have just done whatever we had to do.
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And his argument was that a lot of people who are anti-vax, to save grandma, if you said, all right, do you want to take this vaccination that you don't feel is fully trustworthy?
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Do you want to take a, you know, a sketchy thing to save grandma who's 80?
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But you could certainly be reasonable and say, you know, grandma's only got two more years.
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But that's a big thing to put in me and have me worry about it for the rest of my life, right?
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People forget that your mental state is part of your health because, again, they separate brain and body like they're two different things.
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If you have a serious, serious concern about your own safety from a vaccination, so-called vaccination, that is part of your health.
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Right, why would I want to give you a mental problem to have you less chance of a, you know, a serious virus?
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I'm not even sure that would make sense medically, would it?
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And here's what the medical community gets totally wrong about what I'll call the anti-vaxxers.
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They're completely ignoring the fact that their mental state, you know, what they feel about the risk, what they feel about being abused, what they feel about having their rights taken away, what they feel about having something put in their arm they don't want.
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So the moment you say your health is just your body and what happens to grandma, you've ignored a huge, huge part of the medical decision, which is what's it going to do to your brain?
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I mean, psychologically, not even spike protein-wise.
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So, I think that Sam Harris made an interesting point that I found was added value in a philosophical way, but has no bearing on what's happening today, right?
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It doesn't tell you to do anything differently.
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But nowhere, nowhere did he say he had some preference for children dying from the virus.
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If you really had to listen to it, to know he didn't say that, you have to ask yourself, have you been too hypnotized by the narrative?
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Like, to imagine he actually said that in public, one of the most, let's say, careful speakers and best communicators of our time,
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somebody who's totally tapped into, you know, what things sound like when you say them, there's no way he said that.
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But people saw it, because people see what they're primed to see.
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Matt Gaetz and, weirdly, Kevin McCarthy at the same time.
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I cannot be, I don't think I could tell you how impressed I am that Matt Gaetz turned the ship around for his own political fortunes.
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But not only is he cleared of all the accusations, you know, at least in a legal sense, he's cleared of all accusations.
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But his move to force McCarthy to give, you know, some Republicans what they wanted totally was successful.
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Gates was on Tucker talking about how happy he was that Kevin McCarthy had decided to release all of the January 6 footage,
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which is something Republicans have been asking for for a long time.
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And apparently that wasn't even part of what they negotiated.
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So, Matt Gaetz is on Tucker Carlson saying Kevin McCarthy is doing a great job.
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Apparently they're friends now, or at least, you know, working colleagues.
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So, I don't think it gets better than that, if you're a Republican.
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Have you ever been happier with your party than to watch the, you know, the Gates group fight McCarthy?
00:29:17.620
The net outcome was an improvement, according to Republicans.
00:29:21.800
And then they became friends again, and they started working like colleagues.
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Now, I don't know how much they like each other personally, but clearly they can now work together.
00:29:31.980
They've now shown each other the level of respect that both of them earned.
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I think they both earned the respect that each is giving them.
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And you're seeing a good outcome at the moment.
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Has anybody had a better week than both McCarthy and Gates?
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And they had this good week because they fought, but they did it honestly.
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Now, let's talk about everything you don't want.
00:30:06.640
Weak border policies are the root cause of our fentanyl crisis.
00:30:20.740
Assuming he's running for president, that's totally disqualifying.
00:30:25.360
How could he hold the jobs that he's held and know nothing about fentanyl?
00:30:30.260
Or does he understand fentanyl but doesn't want to deal with it seriously?
00:30:36.700
Trump says directly, now, of course, there's a question of whether he'd do it.
00:30:41.760
But Trump says directly he wants to spend the special forces in to kick the shit out of the cartels.
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And Mike Pompeo is saying, like, let's make that wall a little stronger.
00:30:51.680
It's like he doesn't understand the weight of fentanyl.
00:30:57.240
It's like the size of a baseball and it's enough to kill a city.
00:31:12.960
But we can't have a president whose understanding of one of the biggest issues that we have
00:31:19.120
is so thin or that he's, you know, misrepresenting his opinion.
00:31:26.720
So, now do you see the point of being a single issue voter?
00:31:35.460
Because I can direct fire as something specific.
00:31:39.700
It is now my job to make sure that Mike Pompeo does not get anywhere in the primary.
00:31:48.860
He seems like a pretty credible, straight shooter.
00:31:54.480
You know, otherwise, I liked him a lot, actually.
00:31:57.900
There would be plenty of things to criticize with all of them.
00:32:00.840
But generally speaking, I saw him as a serious candidate.
00:32:12.680
Because you saw that Trump also has evolved on this.
00:32:16.120
I think Trump has evolved less on his thinking.
00:32:19.460
Because I think he probably always wanted to be tough on the cartels.
00:32:22.620
But I think he's evolved it in terms of what he's willing to say out loud.
00:32:27.180
So, I think he's got a little cover for saying that now.
00:32:42.700
When the stories first came out about the documents that Joe Biden had that were classified, sprinkled around,
00:32:49.580
Am I the first person you heard saying it sounded like a Democrat op to get rid of Joe Biden?
00:33:01.260
And I'm not saying that I influence the other people.
00:33:07.480
The people that I see saying it don't look like they're people who had been exposed to me.
00:33:14.680
So, I'm just wondering, did people spontaneously have the same feeling?
00:33:23.460
Did you spontaneously, even before anybody said it, did you say, oh my God, this looks like an op?
00:33:33.480
Because it seemed to me that this was the sort of thing that a lot of people would have the same reaction.
00:33:48.020
And now you feel like you've seen the pattern, right?
00:33:56.320
But the interesting thing about this is it might be a twofer that I just realized today.
00:34:07.320
That it looks like a Democrat op to get rid of Biden before the primaries.
00:34:13.420
But it also looks like it's designed to protect Trump.
00:34:22.360
The twofer is that if Biden is being accused of these document troubles, then there's no way that Trump can get into the maximum trouble himself.
00:34:32.000
Like, it's going to make it all look like, oh, people do this.
00:34:37.580
Now, I'm going to stop short of saying that it's a clever plot.
00:34:49.800
We don't really know, you know, who's behind what.
00:35:07.240
Some prominent Republican was just on Smirconish.
00:35:17.940
Matt Gates just had a very successful appearance on CNN.
00:35:23.700
He's now the only person who can do CNN and Fox News.
00:35:30.080
I mean, nobody has ever had a week this good that I can remember, like politically.
00:35:35.040
If Gates can do a good job on CNN as well as present a good job on Fox News, and he did both.
00:35:55.720
Now, Matt Gates, quite wisely, tweeted the interview, and he said that Smirconish was really fair, and that he thinks CNN might be actually changing for the better.
00:36:08.700
But I would like to modify that comment, because you remember I've also said that Smirconish is the most fair interviewer on CNN.
00:36:21.040
I mean, my experience with Smirconish was that he did play it down the middle.
00:36:24.920
I was a little annoyed once when the producer had invited me on, and I said yes, and then they also invited on a critic of mine after I said yes.
00:36:38.220
Because the critic just, you know, uses up the time, and you don't have time to respond, so basically they just get slimed on camera.
00:36:46.980
But I have a feeling that had more to do with the producers than Smirconish.
00:36:50.480
Because my feeling about Smirconish is he's actually a good dude who's trying to do the right thing for the country, and he just happens to be on CNN.
00:36:59.180
So I'm not sure that Smirconish is a sign that CNN is improving.
00:37:05.020
It's more of a sign that Smirconish does a good job, I think.
00:37:12.860
Because CNN's going pretty hard about this document thing.
00:37:16.400
So it's either part of the plot to get rid of Biden, or they're just playing the news straight.
00:37:32.960
Well, first of all, I have a theory for why so many documents, classified documents, keep being found by Biden.
00:37:39.340
I believe, and this is just speculation, but I believe that Biden, wherever he goes, he likes to leave a trail of classified documents,
00:37:52.220
because sometimes that's the only way he can find his way back.
00:37:55.440
So I think we're going to find, you know, not just documents, but we might find like an ant trail all the way from Delaware to the White House.
00:38:04.940
I'm just trying to figure out why there's so many of them.
00:38:10.700
Now, how did we get this far without knowing what the documents are about?
00:38:20.420
Don't you think that somebody should have said, all right, we can't show you the documents, but we've looked at them, and they're either terrible or they're nothing.
00:38:31.000
I think that Biden's classified documents should be collected up and then put them in a skiff.
00:38:36.400
The skiff is that really highly secure place where you can't take a picture, you can't bring your phone in, you can't take a copy, you just have to read it where it is in that little skiff, that building.
00:38:48.300
And I think that they should put those documents in a skiff and then get somebody like Adam Schiff, for example, have Adam Schiff look at them and then tell us if we should be worried.
00:39:00.220
Because I feel like you'd look at them and say, oh, there's nothing here at all, and then everything's fine.
00:39:05.940
Because if you can't believe Adam Schiff, who can you believe?
00:39:17.120
That would be an example of jokes that don't need punchlines.
00:39:23.160
That's a joke that doesn't need a punchline, because Schiff is the punchline, I guess.
00:39:32.260
So here we know now the following things, or maybe we don't.
00:39:36.700
I still think it's a little early to know if all the facts are right.
00:39:40.620
So maybe some of these facts are wrong about Biden and the documents.
00:39:44.380
But here's what we think we know, that he had some of these documents in his garage.
00:39:49.440
And here's the part I need to fact check on, that Hunter Biden was renting the whole home during that period for $49,000 a month.
00:40:10.960
Is that confirmed that he was renting it during the period those documents were there?
00:40:28.640
So here's what, if it's true, and I have a question on that.
00:40:34.020
So if it's true, shouldn't the rental payments be shown on Joe Biden's tax returns?
00:41:00.800
If it's true that Hunter was paying $49,000 a month, and it's also true he didn't put it on his tax returns,
00:41:21.040
If it's not on his tax returns, and he actually did have a lease agreement and actually collected $49,000 a month,
00:41:29.500
he would have known he was cheating on his taxes, for sure.
00:41:34.600
Now, why would he not put it on his tax returns?
00:41:41.820
Because at some point, you'd probably want to, you know, maybe launder it or something,
00:41:45.580
so it's good to get it taxed and keep what you can.
00:41:53.880
And again, just to be clear, none of this is confirmed.
00:41:58.780
I'm not positive there was ever a rental agreement.
00:42:01.680
I'm not positive it happened at the same time as the documents.
00:42:05.000
And I'm not positive it's not on the tax returns.
00:42:08.140
But those are the facts that preliminary, we think, are true.
00:42:15.340
If anybody had put, I got $600,000 a year from renting my house,
00:42:23.260
don't you think that would have been a red flag?
00:42:27.080
If he had put those real numbers, if they were real numbers,
00:42:30.960
I see somebody's got a document there, but tell me what that says so I don't have to open it.
00:42:37.840
If you rent it to your child, it's still taxable.
00:42:46.940
If you treat it as a gift, and it's over $10,000 a year, or $15,000 I think now,
00:42:52.620
you would still have to record it on your taxes as a gift.
00:43:00.640
I think it could not be on the taxes because we would have already known about it.
00:43:11.040
So if this is what it looks like, then the Democrats really did take him down.
00:43:22.200
I mean, I don't know how you could explain it any other way.
00:43:29.080
Yeah, imagine being the Biden accountant right now.
00:43:33.880
So I guess my main thing is, if this is true, then we have found how Hunter Biden launders money to his father,
00:43:49.360
It looks like their entire criminal enterprise is now transparent.
00:43:53.720
And it was accidental because we wouldn't have found out about this if it's true.
00:44:09.900
I told you I'm going to defend people who can't defend themselves.
00:44:23.720
I don't like the quality of the information I'm talking about.
00:44:30.980
So I'm going to give him an innocent until proven guilty.
00:44:39.500
Now, if the information that has been reported is true,
00:45:19.600
So there were 350 reports of unidentified stuff.
00:45:24.080
And something like half of them, they figured out they were balloons and plastic bags that somehow got into the atmosphere.
00:45:35.040
Now, the unexplained ones, over 100 of them, unexplained, 100 recent ones unexplained,
00:45:41.500
they have this weird quality where they can, they'll be moving in one direction and suddenly they'll change directions.
00:45:48.140
And you know, you know that that would be a violation of physics, right?
00:45:54.220
Because if you had a, and it's moving like, I don't know, 100 miles an hour or something,
00:45:59.340
and then suddenly it just like goes in the other direction,
00:46:02.600
obviously that would be violating physics, right?
00:46:07.000
I wonder, I wonder if there's any kind of object that could be in the air,
00:46:14.680
there could be going in one direction within the, within the rules of our existing physics,
00:46:20.440
could be traveling at a high speed in one direction,
00:46:23.420
and then suddenly reverse speed and going the other way.
00:46:28.520
It could be, let's see, let's put together what we know.
00:46:32.400
So the ones they've confirmed are not spacecraft are plastic garbage bags and balloons.
00:46:40.940
If only we could think of something that could change direction quickly in the air
00:47:08.440
We think we're being invaded by an advanced species.
00:47:19.500
Now, as soon as I saw that most of them are balloons and bags,
00:47:24.140
and that whole thing about the physics being impossible,
00:47:27.680
I thought, the physics are impossible if you make the assumption it's a spacecraft.
00:47:32.160
If you start with the assumption it's a spacecraft, well, yeah, it can't move that way.
00:47:38.680
If you start with the assumption it's a plastic bag, it can go any direction really quickly.
00:47:57.580
All the ones that they show, like the sensor readings of, I don't know what you'd call it, cameras, I guess.
00:48:13.620
The ones that look the least convincing, like their hoaxes or their airplanes or stuff?
00:48:22.440
Now, I would love for UFOs to be real if they're not here to, you know, use us for food.
00:48:32.800
I'm going to make a really big bet that in my lifetime there will be no confirmation of spaceships.
00:48:40.560
And that would be hard because we've got cameras everywhere.
00:48:56.660
All of the clear photography is a balloon or a bag,
00:49:02.080
and all of the vague photography might be an advanced alien armada coming to Earth.
00:49:18.220
Well, one of those is more likely than the other.
00:49:36.560
I would be so happy, like if we found out there were space aliens or some kind of aliens who are not dangerous.
00:50:06.360
One of the things I'll teach you in my new book is that
00:50:12.020
and then you find out you're wrong about something,
00:50:16.300
Because you're trying to make some compatibility with who you think you are
00:50:19.660
and who you've presented yourself to the public
00:50:24.220
So, if I were to present myself as flawless in my predictions,
00:50:31.900
I would be triggered into cognitive dissonance.
00:50:36.540
I tell you that if I'm wrong about this, I will love it.
00:50:40.440
And that makes me pretty much immune from cognitive dissonance.
00:50:57.500
I don't have any trigger for cognitive dissonance.
00:51:08.580
Do you remember me saying that winter was going to be tough
00:51:14.460
Because it seemed to me that the Ukrainians would just fly drones
00:51:22.220
And the drones would just wait until the Russians had to go back to their barracks
00:51:27.180
because they had to be indoors for the winter or for the night.
00:51:31.000
And I said, isn't the winter going to be a whole bunch of Russians walking into barracks
00:51:47.520
You actually see the soldiers, the Russian soldiers, like 20 of them, heading toward a building.
00:51:54.880
One assumes that there are more of them in that building,
00:51:59.160
because that's probably some kind of a barracks or headquarters or something.
00:52:02.660
So the Ukrainians, instead of killing the 20 where they see them,
00:52:08.460
And you watch them walk into the building, and then they call in the strike,
00:52:19.120
Now, that's just the videos we've seen, so I'm not sure if we see all of them.
00:52:27.060
Would you agree that that's clearly a strategy at this point?
00:52:37.400
Can't they see troop movements really easily in the winter?
00:52:44.240
It looks to me that if you have any kind of aerial advantage,
00:52:54.080
Like, all you have to wait is for a day your drone can fly,
00:53:00.540
I don't know how there are going to be any Russians left by the end of the winter.
00:53:11.920
Now, I think it might be different on the Ukrainian side,
00:53:18.440
And it may be that the Russians have fewer good surveillance tech.
00:53:33.500
there is no way to know who will lose or who will win in the long run.
00:53:38.900
Any amount of, you know, temporary Ukrainian victories
00:53:42.500
have to be weighed against the fact that Russia might be willing to take as long as it takes.
00:53:51.160
And you should also not believe anything that comes out of Ukraine.
00:54:07.820
and part of the story is that the Wagner group is fighting there,
00:54:12.800
and I guess somebody claimed that they had conquered it before they had,
00:54:16.940
so they had to try extra hard to actually conquer it with a lot of losses.
00:54:20.640
Anyway, so whether or not Russia has conquered it, let's say they do.
00:54:45.240
So Ukraine, let's say Ukraine pulls out of Solidar.
00:55:09.760
They're probably going to bunch up in little groups
00:55:18.280
and then the Ukrainians will blow up the rubble,
00:55:21.180
and so Solidar will just turn into a killing field
00:55:26.560
and there's nothing the Ukrainians wouldn't be willing to blow up
00:55:42.520
It just means that you're holding on to a piece of land
00:55:48.420
Like, there's nothing predictable about any of this stuff.
00:56:25.540
I assume this is a confidence-building kind of move.
00:56:38.000
They don't see it in the U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs records,
00:56:45.740
So they're actually reporting a risk of their own product
00:57:26.360
they're going to magically proclaim they saw nothing,
00:57:34.800
So if you think there's something we haven't followed up on,
00:57:38.560
See, that was something we didn't even need to tell you
00:57:45.160
So I think that's just positioning and persuasion.
00:57:50.460
Yeah, the PR people told them to admit and apologize
00:58:06.980
Which has nothing to do with whether it's safe or not.
00:58:11.460
I saw some insurance actuary stuff on periocarditis.
00:58:33.720
And now this was one small insurance company's data.
00:59:06.220
But there did seem to be a clear spike in younger people.