Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1998 Scott Adams： Teach Me How To Recognize The Good COVID Data To Avoid The Same Mistake

00:00:00.000 To the highlight of civilization, better than ever, really, today is going to be a burner.

00:00:06.960 A burner.

00:00:08.280 Yeah.

00:00:08.840 And if you'd like to enjoy this at the maximum potential, all you need is a cupper mug or

00:00:14.640 a glass of tankard, a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:19.660 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like, coffee.

00:00:23.080 Join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, what?

00:00:30.000 Got her with the microphone on, the dopamine of the day, the thing that makes everything 0.98

00:00:36.460 better.

00:00:37.760 It's called the simultaneous sip.

00:00:39.860 It happens now.

00:00:41.680 Go.

00:00:46.180 Ah, that's the best thing ever.

00:00:51.060 Thank you, Paul, over on Locals.

00:00:53.960 That little graphic you have, so on the Locals platform.

00:01:00.500 One of the members always puts up a little graphic to tell me if my sound is working on

00:01:07.000 both platforms.

00:01:08.540 Oh my God, is that useful.

00:01:10.500 That is so useful.

00:01:12.380 I so appreciate that.

00:01:13.920 Thank you, Paul Collider.

00:01:16.060 Let's go private over here on.

00:01:17.940 We're going to put the Locals people private, so when I turn off YouTube later, they'll have 1.00

00:01:24.280 their little special time.

00:01:26.760 Now, are you wondering why I'm in such a good mood?

00:01:31.280 Are you wondering why I'm so damn happy this morning?

00:01:35.300 I mean, I'm like crazy happy.

00:01:36.640 Well, number one, the rains have stopped, and we've got a sunny California week.

00:01:44.500 Now, if you've not enjoyed a sunny California week, they're pretty awesome.

00:01:49.380 But I haven't seen one in a while, so all excited about that.

00:01:52.580 Yesterday was amazing.

00:01:54.600 But it's even better.

00:01:55.720 I had a book deadline, which is today, actually.

00:02:01.460 And that meant I had to get all of my first round of edits done, which are really hard.

00:02:07.020 Because editing, writing is hard.

00:02:09.920 But editing to an editor's changes, when those changes involve moving parts around, it becomes

00:02:17.760 this huge Rubik's Cube.

00:02:20.320 So instead of writing, which you're also doing as you're fixing stuff, you're also holding

00:02:26.880 in your mind the entire book, hundreds of different sections, and how, like, one phrase may have

00:02:33.960 been more about this chapter than the other.

00:02:37.100 And so you have to hold all of it in your head and then move it in different places, like

00:02:42.580 a...

00:02:43.560 It's almost like programming, really.

00:02:45.020 You're moving, like, sections of code around to be in the right place.

00:02:49.300 Because it's the hardest thing I do.

00:02:54.420 Period.

00:02:55.660 It's the hardest thing I ever do.

00:02:59.100 And the reason I'm so funny, that I'm so happy today, is that I finished it a few hours

00:03:06.880 early and submitted it last night.

00:03:10.720 There is no better day in the life of an author.

00:03:15.740 There is no better day than the day you've submitted your stuff and you know it's a book.

00:03:22.880 Now, the next edits will be a little more work, but it's a book.

00:03:27.680 Nothing can stop it.

00:03:30.100 Like, until you submit the, you know, the final or first round of edits, really, until you

00:03:35.400 submit those, you're not entirely sure you have a book.

00:03:38.700 You've worked for a year.

00:03:41.820 You've wasted it, you know, you could potentially waste a year of your life because it takes

00:03:46.980 all of your free time.

00:03:48.540 All of it.

00:03:51.080 And today I know it's a book.

00:03:53.040 Somebody says, what about the day your trophy wife left you?

00:04:02.120 Was that supposed to be my best day?

00:04:03.960 I'm not sure what that got.

00:04:05.300 There's somebody, there's somebody who mentions my wife or ex-wife on, on every topic.

00:04:10.440 So let me tell you my latest troll technique.

00:04:20.720 So, you know, I'm still, of course, every day I get, you know, loads of insults.

00:04:25.640 And yesterday I was looking through the media stories about me.

00:04:30.960 You know, there's a sub-stack about me, how terrible I am, and there's, and there's a whole

00:04:35.880 bunch of, yes, the last few days there's a bunch of media reports about me.

00:04:40.660 Now, here's the funny thing.

00:04:43.540 None of them were even close to accurate.

00:04:46.280 They were just so wildly mischaracterizing me and my situation, what I'm thinking, and

00:04:52.100 what I've done.

00:04:53.140 It's all just completely fiction.

00:04:55.900 And it's become so funny that I'm just going to do an LOL on all of it because there's nothing

00:05:03.380 to say about it.

00:05:04.180 I mean, you'd have to go back a year and fix like a hundred different, you know, misconceptions.

00:05:11.020 So, it's all just LOL now.

00:05:14.620 So I'm having a great week just looking at all the, all the stories about me that are

00:05:19.700 just ridiculous.

00:05:22.620 Rasmussen has a poll.

00:05:24.320 58% of people polled considered important that a company shares their social and political

00:05:31.320 values, including 28% who think it's very important.

00:05:36.960 This feels like a big problem.

00:05:39.540 Now, even though most people, you know, the vast majority according to the Rasmussen poll,

00:05:44.100 most people think that the product is the most important thing, right?

00:05:47.640 So most people say, yeah, it's a product.

00:05:49.320 Oh, yeah, 28% is very close to one quarter.

00:05:55.000 It's very close to one quarter.

00:05:58.200 Yes, I saw the Trump retweet of my endorsement on truth.

00:06:04.260 That was cool.

00:06:05.040 So anyway, here's my question.

00:06:11.760 As we become more woke and people are putting more pressure on companies to do stuff, don't

00:06:19.940 you think we almost need like a new, I feel like we almost need a new constitutional amendment?

00:06:25.540 Because aren't we all better off that government and religion are separate? 0.99

00:06:33.940 Wasn't that like one of the smartest things that we, oh, you say no?

00:06:38.740 Well, I mean, we're based, the Constitution is based on a sort of a Christian bias, if you

00:06:45.360 can say that.

00:06:46.220 So I suppose you could say that in some ways it is a religious document.

00:06:49.920 They just, they just have some walls that say, don't get your religion in with the workings

00:06:55.280 of the government.

00:06:56.260 Now, I think, I think that's worked.

00:06:59.840 I think that's worked.

00:07:01.100 But I wonder if we should do the same thing for business.

00:07:04.660 Don't you think the worst thing you could do to the economy of a country is mix your politics

00:07:10.080 in with the business?

00:07:11.340 Because we already have laws, right?

00:07:14.620 If the companies are following the laws, I feel like I'm done.

00:07:20.360 I mean, I could have my opinion and stuff, but I don't want my opinion to put them out

00:07:24.940 of business if they're following the law.

00:07:28.320 Now, I might want to change the law.

00:07:30.960 That's a thing.

00:07:32.400 I could see that.

00:07:33.640 I might want to ban some companies that are especially bad.

00:07:37.700 But should we really be trying to micromanage companies?

00:07:42.060 That feels like the worst thing you could do.

00:07:43.780 I almost think like we need some kind of standard to keep our business out of it.

00:07:51.060 Now, I do like transparency.

00:07:53.260 So to the extent that the external pressure causes them to be more transparent, that's

00:07:59.240 probably good.

00:07:59.780 But I feel like there's a better way to get there.

00:08:02.600 So I don't like having more government regulations.

00:08:07.660 But separating religion from government, I think, worked. 0.96

00:08:12.480 And now we might at least think about it for separating politics and business.

00:08:19.040 Because it's just crushing businesses.

00:08:21.320 Am I wrong about that?

00:08:22.740 Isn't the politics of it just crushing businesses that didn't need to get crushed?

00:08:27.000 Now, they should also stay out of it.

00:08:28.780 So if you made an argument that says, well, if Disney, for example, let's say Disney decides

00:08:36.280 to enter an argument that's a political argument, well, then maybe they're putting themselves

00:08:46.700 out there for a little pushback.

00:08:48.700 But if they're minding their own business and obeying all the laws, I think we should stay

00:08:55.260 away from them.

00:08:56.100 Let them do what they want.

00:08:57.020 But, you know, it would probably help the businesses to make it illegal.

00:09:02.840 It would probably be a boon to business, wouldn't it?

00:09:04.820 Because let's say you're the CEO.

00:09:07.320 And let's say your customers and your employees and stockholders are all yammering at you.

00:09:13.380 Hey, be more woke or be more political or say something about climate change.

00:09:18.060 What's the CEO going to do?

00:09:20.940 Pretty much bow to the pressure, right?

00:09:22.720 But what if the CEO had backing them a law and the law said you can't speak out as a company

00:09:33.040 on a political item?

00:09:34.060 You can speak out personally, personally, of course, but companies can't have opinions.

00:09:39.480 Oh, how about that?

00:09:40.720 Companies can't have political opinions.

00:09:42.540 They can do what they want to do, and the individuals can have any opinions they want.

00:09:50.040 How about that?

00:09:50.980 And how about at the same time we say you can't be fired for your political opinion?

00:09:56.100 How about that?

00:09:57.720 You can't be fired for your political opinion.

00:09:59.560 Even if you say something on social media that the company doesn't like.

00:10:04.500 Yeah.

00:10:04.780 I feel like there are a few tweaks we could make to account for the fact that social media

00:10:09.620 changed the balance of power.

00:10:12.820 Because I think the regular media had some balance with business.

00:10:18.520 But social media is the Wild West.

00:10:20.760 And now it's just forcing business to respond to basically the randomness of social media.

00:10:26.120 That can't be good in the long run.

00:10:28.620 Anyway, I don't have the best idea for fixing that, but something needs to be done.

00:10:35.260 Here's what I don't like to say.

00:10:37.640 We should have a national conversation about that.

00:10:41.100 I hate hearing that.

00:10:43.980 Because I'm actually criticizing myself at the moment for bringing up something I didn't

00:10:49.480 have a better idea for.

00:10:51.440 I probably shouldn't do that.

00:10:52.660 I mean, I'm just throwing out that constitutional amendment thing, but even I don't think that's

00:10:56.920 necessarily a good idea.

00:10:58.620 Just putting it out there.

00:11:00.620 All right.

00:11:00.960 Let's talk about, are you aware that China built a technology and it's got a user interface

00:11:09.980 where China can control the minds of Americans actually through the interface?

00:11:17.640 Did you know that?

00:11:18.460 How many of you knew that?

00:11:20.880 There's actually a user interface that China can control the minds of Americans? 0.83

00:11:26.120 Like literally, no joke.

00:11:28.320 That's a real thing.

00:11:29.820 How many of you knew that?

00:11:31.340 Yeah, it's called TikTok and people think it's something else.

00:11:34.700 Now, now here's the thing.

00:11:42.340 Why is it that Congress hasn't acted on TikTok?

00:11:45.540 Because if you said to them, do you know that the Chinese government literally, not hyperbolically,

00:11:54.640 actually literally has built a tool that they can tweak very easily with the user interface

00:12:00.920 to change the minds of Americans, to change our minds on important political things.

00:12:08.480 Now, nobody doubts that social media can do that, right?

00:12:12.920 Is there anybody who says social media doesn't change anybody's mind?

00:12:16.040 No, everybody knows that.

00:12:18.620 Everybody knows that China controls TikTok.

00:12:21.340 And now we know from an article in Forbes that TikTok literally has a button that any employee,

00:12:28.660 I guess some employees, can touch.

00:12:31.100 It's called the heat, heat button.

00:12:33.420 They touch one button and they can make any content on TikTok go viral.

00:12:41.200 They can make it go viral with one button.

00:12:46.040 Now, let me ask you this.

00:12:48.440 I don't use TikTok.

00:12:50.040 Is there anybody here who uses TikTok?

00:12:52.020 It must be some of you.

00:12:54.580 Bunch of you use TikTok?

00:12:57.280 All right.

00:12:58.040 So for the, not very many of you, actually, that's good.

00:13:00.880 But for those who do, let me ask this question.

00:13:04.600 Have you seen a lot of anti-fentanyl content on TikTok?

00:13:08.660 You know, a lot of content about the overdoses and number of people dying.

00:13:14.860 And specifically where it's coming from.

00:13:19.480 Have you seen that?

00:13:20.720 Is TikTok just full of the biggest issue for young people?

00:13:25.360 Because TikTok skews younger, right?

00:13:27.620 Younger.

00:13:28.620 And what is the number one cause of death for young people?

00:13:32.560 It's actually drug overdose and guns.

00:13:36.040 But, oh, well, actually, that's a good comparison.

00:13:38.640 I'm assuming that since the two biggest problems for young people, death-wise, would be guns, an issue that the left likes, and then fentanyl, right?

00:13:52.820 So, those of you who use TikTok, if you want to wonder, hey, is this TikTok already being weaponized against Americans, it would be easy.

00:14:02.680 It would be easy to check.

00:14:04.360 Easy to check.

00:14:05.480 All you'd have to do is see, is there more viral content about mass shootings and how guns should be banned?

00:14:12.380 And does it roughly match the anti-fentanyl information, especially mentioning that it comes from China?

00:14:25.520 Right.

00:14:26.500 So, you could easily check, couldn't you?

00:14:30.960 Why is somebody saying not guns?

00:14:32.740 I don't know what you, I don't know what not guns means.

00:14:40.060 They must have plenty of content that's anti-gun.

00:14:42.940 Am I wrong?

00:14:44.480 Does TikTok have anti-gun content or not?

00:14:49.980 I'm just assuming that it leans left on that topic.

00:14:53.900 Am I wrong?

00:14:55.260 Give me a fact check on that.

00:14:56.340 I guess there are not enough TikTok users on here to fact check me as I go.

00:15:01.400 So, but it's easy to check, right?

00:15:03.580 Now, why would Congress ignore this?

00:15:07.540 Do you think China would ignore it if we built a user interface to control their youth and that it was working? 0.73

00:15:14.180 It totally works.

00:15:15.580 Nobody's questioning whether it works.

00:15:18.140 I don't think they would ignore it.

00:15:20.060 That's why the young people in China can't use TikTok.

00:15:24.680 They have a different version in China that's a safe version.

00:15:27.920 So, it's possible that Congress isn't doing nothing because we're all bought off.

00:15:35.540 But there's another possibility.

00:15:39.180 Congress is too old to understand the topic.

00:15:44.600 Congress is too old to understand the topic.

00:15:48.140 That's my current thinking.

00:15:51.920 And I'll be a little more specific.

00:15:55.840 If you had never been on TikTok or you'd never used, let's say, Instagram,

00:16:00.720 and most of them probably, you know, have somebody else send a tweet,

00:16:04.380 and maybe they know a little Twitter, and maybe they've got some Facebook going on,

00:16:07.860 but they're not really social media consumers so much.

00:16:11.700 They're more like producers, not consumers.

00:16:15.680 Now, if you're a consumer, and you've done what I did,

00:16:19.380 which is you pick up Instagram, and you say,

00:16:22.280 ah, I wonder if there's any good, like, Instagram stuff.

00:16:25.960 And then you spend about a second scrolling,

00:16:29.020 and you feel your entire body being taken over.

00:16:32.540 Okay, I'm actually a trained hypnotist,

00:16:35.660 and I know exactly what's happening to me right now,

00:16:38.380 and I can't stop scrolling kitten pictures,

00:16:41.840 and it's feeding me infinite Jordan Peterson videos,

00:16:45.640 and they're all good.

00:16:46.720 And what are these attractive women I like looking at? 1.00

00:16:49.540 I think I'm done doing the live stream

00:16:51.540 because I can't take my eyes off of these reels.

00:16:56.380 Now, I understand social media at a cellular level.

00:17:06.500 A cellular level.

00:17:09.500 I understand social media with my fucking...

00:17:12.940 I'm sorry.

00:17:14.540 I promised I wouldn't do that this year.

00:17:16.460 I understand social media with my body.

00:17:20.980 I didn't read an article about it.

00:17:23.440 If you read an article that says,

00:17:25.460 oh, this social media is pretty sticky,

00:17:30.040 maybe people will be hooked on it.

00:17:32.480 Like, we all know, logically, it's addicting, right?

00:17:36.500 But if you haven't used it,

00:17:39.640 you have no idea how addicting it is.

00:17:42.740 Would you agree with that?

00:17:44.720 That if you haven't used it yourself

00:17:46.720 and experienced the pull,

00:17:50.100 you can feel TikTok or Instagram,

00:17:52.800 and it's sort of a similar thing,

00:17:54.940 you can feel Instagram take over your body.

00:17:57.820 You can feel it taking over your body.

00:18:01.340 If you've never experienced the feeling,

00:18:06.380 I don't think you would take it seriously.

00:18:08.860 Because there are a number of members of Congress

00:18:10.880 who follow me on Twitter.

00:18:13.120 They've seen all of my tweets,

00:18:16.420 or a lot of them.

00:18:17.560 And they know that people say,

00:18:19.400 hey, TikTok is addictive

00:18:20.660 and it can influence people.

00:18:23.120 I'll bet if I did a quiz

00:18:24.560 of all the members of Congress,

00:18:26.340 they would all get the right answer.

00:18:27.760 Don't you think?

00:18:29.360 You know, does social media influence people?

00:18:33.740 Yes.

00:18:34.600 I'll bet every one of them

00:18:35.540 would get the right answer.

00:18:37.360 Does TikTok influence people?

00:18:39.880 Yes.

00:18:41.260 Right answer.

00:18:42.580 Is TikTok controlled by China?

00:18:45.940 Yes.

00:18:47.040 I believe that Congress

00:18:48.480 would get all the right answers in the quiz.

00:18:50.920 Every one of them.

00:18:52.060 Probably every one of them.

00:18:52.980 But I'll bet there are very few

00:18:55.860 who've used it.

00:18:58.540 If you used it,

00:19:00.680 you're going to kick it to the curb really fast.

00:19:04.900 Because you feel it.

00:19:06.880 And you've also had the experience,

00:19:08.500 have you all?

00:19:11.560 Just listen to this.

00:19:13.400 You've all had the same experience,

00:19:15.080 so mine is not unique.

00:19:16.000 I have considered

00:19:17.760 and talked with friends

00:19:20.720 about maybe taking singing lessons.

00:19:24.840 Vocal lessons.

00:19:26.320 Because, you know,

00:19:26.820 I've learned the drums,

00:19:27.960 I'm trying to learn the guitar.

00:19:29.720 And I was just curious

00:19:30.680 whether anybody could learn to sing.

00:19:33.800 And I have, you know,

00:19:34.500 no skill or aptitude.

00:19:36.300 And so I was kind of curious.

00:19:38.560 I've never written it down,

00:19:40.120 I don't think.

00:19:41.660 I've never tweeted it.

00:19:43.040 And my advertisements

00:19:47.760 are full of vocal lessons

00:19:49.440 being offered.

00:19:51.460 Full of vocal lessons.

00:19:53.420 Now, do you have,

00:19:54.780 is your feed full of vocal lessons?

00:19:57.180 No.

00:19:58.060 I never wrote that down.

00:20:00.460 Never wrote it down.

00:20:01.640 But I said it out loud.

00:20:03.960 Said it out loud.

00:20:06.100 Now, do you think that Congress,

00:20:08.700 you know,

00:20:08.900 the 80-year-old people in Congress,

00:20:11.340 do you think that they've experienced

00:20:13.700 talking about something

00:20:16.340 in the privacy of their home

00:20:17.820 and then watching it show up

00:20:19.660 on their feed?

00:20:21.040 Do you think they've experienced that?

00:20:23.560 Maybe.

00:20:24.340 A few.

00:20:25.420 The younger ones.

00:20:26.500 You know, AOC has, I'm sure.

00:20:28.960 But I don't think that Congress

00:20:31.100 is young enough

00:20:32.080 to have actually, you know,

00:20:35.240 mind-melded themselves

00:20:36.580 with social media

00:20:37.680 to know how powerful it is.

00:20:40.160 So I'm thinking

00:20:41.600 it's actually an information problem.

00:20:44.060 As in, you can't communicate

00:20:45.520 to somebody

00:20:46.120 what a feeling feels like.

00:20:48.220 Right?

00:20:49.340 Like, intellectually,

00:20:50.380 they all get it.

00:20:51.240 But I don't think they know

00:20:52.080 what it feels like.

00:20:52.980 If they did, it'd be over.

00:20:54.740 There would be no TikTok

00:20:55.760 if Congress used it for a week.

00:20:59.160 It would be gone.

00:21:00.720 That's my best hypothesis.

00:21:03.340 Because it could be just corruption.

00:21:04.800 It could be exactly

00:21:05.560 what it looks like.

00:21:07.080 China just owns the Congress. 0.70

00:21:09.040 It's possible.

00:21:10.980 Well, Antifa is back.

00:21:13.500 And there's no reason

00:21:15.400 they ever disappeared.

00:21:16.760 And there's not really

00:21:17.760 a strong reason

00:21:18.500 they came back.

00:21:19.820 But as Tucker Carlson

00:21:21.720 conspiratorially suggests,

00:21:26.160 they're nothing but

00:21:27.240 the military arm

00:21:30.180 of the Democrats.

00:21:31.200 and they come

00:21:33.360 whenever the Democrats

00:21:34.260 want to tell the public

00:21:35.840 that the country

00:21:37.120 is falling apart

00:21:37.900 and they need to

00:21:38.600 trade out the leader.

00:21:41.260 So the first leader

00:21:42.500 they got rid of

00:21:43.220 was Trump.

00:21:45.300 And it started

00:21:46.280 looking like

00:21:47.540 they want to get rid

00:21:48.260 of Biden.

00:21:49.660 So Antifa

00:21:50.620 might be a way

00:21:51.580 to get rid of Biden.

00:21:54.280 Because it just

00:21:55.340 makes the country

00:21:55.960 look unstable

00:21:56.720 because they get

00:21:57.260 so much news coverage.

00:21:58.200 Now, apparently

00:21:59.840 Antifa people

00:22:00.780 instead of being executed

00:22:02.940 which seems like

00:22:03.800 the obvious play

00:22:05.300 are being just released.

00:22:08.780 But I think

00:22:10.320 in Atlanta

00:22:10.800 they're going to be

00:22:11.840 a little tougher on them.

00:22:13.260 The Atlanta police

00:22:14.120 say they're going

00:22:14.740 to charge them.

00:22:15.360 So we'll see.

00:22:20.460 I think I'm going

00:22:21.540 to agree with this take.

00:22:23.700 I'm going to agree

00:22:24.260 with this take.

00:22:24.880 Antifa appears to be

00:22:27.420 an entirely artificial

00:22:28.740 Democrat army.

00:22:32.240 I don't believe

00:22:33.300 that all the members

00:22:34.320 of Antifa

00:22:34.900 know what they are

00:22:35.800 or why they're there.

00:22:37.260 I think a lot of them

00:22:38.120 are in it for the lifestyle

00:22:39.180 and to, you know,

00:22:41.180 meet women.

00:22:42.000 It's the only way they can.

00:22:46.460 But I think

00:22:47.180 that the leaders,

00:22:48.340 the leaders are working

00:22:49.560 for a paycheck.

00:22:50.980 And if we don't know

00:22:51.940 who's paying them,

00:22:52.740 I think

00:22:55.180 classifying them

00:22:56.500 as domestic terrorists

00:22:57.740 and also Democrats

00:22:59.880 is accurate.

00:23:02.020 Now,

00:23:02.560 they wouldn't identify

00:23:03.320 as Democrats

00:23:03.860 because they're,

00:23:05.060 you know,

00:23:05.940 they're for chaos.

00:23:07.340 But

00:23:07.680 consider the fact

00:23:09.420 that they're not

00:23:09.940 asking for anything.

00:23:13.060 Just that.

00:23:14.420 Just that alone.

00:23:15.640 They're not asking

00:23:16.320 for anything.

00:23:18.120 Are we done?

00:23:20.180 There's nothing else

00:23:21.140 you need to know

00:23:21.740 about them.

00:23:23.080 If they're burning cities

00:23:24.180 and not asking

00:23:24.920 for, like,

00:23:25.600 some specific demand

00:23:26.840 and they're not asking

00:23:28.620 for anything

00:23:29.020 that could be provided,

00:23:30.180 right?

00:23:30.780 No,

00:23:31.120 it's obviously

00:23:31.840 to create chaos

00:23:32.920 and obviously

00:23:34.240 somebody's paying them.

00:23:36.120 So it's,

00:23:36.600 what if

00:23:37.960 everything is

00:23:39.120 exactly the way

00:23:39.920 it looks?

00:23:40.380 All right,

00:23:42.380 more on that,

00:23:43.320 on that note.

00:23:46.480 It turns out

00:23:47.480 that there is

00:23:48.100 a FBI agent,

00:23:50.560 I don't even know

00:23:53.040 what to say

00:23:53.580 about this story.

00:23:54.980 This story

00:23:55.640 is so mind-boggling

00:23:56.840 that you just,

00:23:58.880 there's no comment

00:24:00.640 on top of it

00:24:01.680 that can do anything

00:24:03.580 to make it

00:24:04.100 more outrageous.

00:24:04.760 So the federal

00:24:07.940 prosecutors

00:24:08.680 are going after

00:24:10.280 the head of,

00:24:11.440 former head

00:24:12.240 of the counterintelligence

00:24:13.860 for the FBI,

00:24:15.260 New York office.

00:24:16.580 They're saying

00:24:17.100 he laundered money

00:24:18.020 from some Russian

00:24:20.860 oligarch

00:24:21.500 who apparently

00:24:22.600 was the same one

00:24:24.240 who was giving money

00:24:24.940 to Manafort.

00:24:26.580 of course.

00:24:29.400 So,

00:24:29.880 sure enough,

00:24:30.740 the FBI guy,

00:24:33.320 I think he was

00:24:34.000 in charge

00:24:34.580 of making sure

00:24:35.780 this didn't happen,

00:24:37.620 was doing it himself.

00:24:40.300 So once again,

00:24:42.980 the Tucker Carlson

00:24:45.820 theory

00:24:46.560 that I thought

00:24:48.160 was batshit crazy,

00:24:50.260 batshit crazy, 0.56

00:24:51.840 that the Democrats

00:24:52.860 do whatever

00:24:53.420 they're accusing you of,

00:24:54.440 every time

00:24:56.520 it comes true,

00:24:58.300 this is exactly

00:24:59.220 what they're accusing

00:25:00.360 Republicans of.

00:25:01.860 They were doing it.

00:25:03.260 They were literally

00:25:03.960 taking money,

00:25:04.680 this guy was literally

00:25:05.560 taking money from Russia

00:25:06.760 and probably using it

00:25:08.640 in service of Democrats.

00:25:10.940 It was exactly

00:25:12.060 what you thought.

00:25:15.480 You know,

00:25:15.760 and the,

00:25:16.440 you know,

00:25:17.740 the pandemic

00:25:18.680 looks like it's going

00:25:19.600 to be exactly

00:25:20.160 what you thought,

00:25:20.900 your worst suspicions.

00:25:22.620 everything is

00:25:24.640 exactly what you think.

00:25:26.620 It just seems

00:25:27.500 exactly what you think.

00:25:29.440 So,

00:25:30.740 anyway,

00:25:32.700 I'm fascinated by that.

00:25:34.220 But let's take

00:25:34.660 that concept

00:25:35.260 that everything

00:25:35.800 is exactly

00:25:36.480 what you think

00:25:37.280 to the fact

00:25:38.340 that there are

00:25:39.260 more classified documents

00:25:40.700 at yet another

00:25:41.900 Joe Biden home.

00:25:43.860 Now,

00:25:44.700 let's discuss

00:25:46.820 how it looks.

00:25:48.920 Number one,

00:25:51.440 nobody can explain

00:25:52.540 why Joe Biden

00:25:53.380 has so many homes.

00:25:56.220 We should be done.

00:26:00.380 That should be

00:26:01.620 the end of his term.

00:26:03.760 Right?

00:26:04.560 He should be,

00:26:05.460 like,

00:26:05.760 immediately swept

00:26:06.940 out of office

00:26:07.660 with one sentence.

00:26:09.520 Nobody knows

00:26:10.320 how he got

00:26:10.740 to all those homes.

00:26:13.100 Nobody knows.

00:26:14.800 There's no theory.

00:26:16.460 There's no hypothesis.

00:26:19.500 We just decide

00:26:21.080 not to talk about it.

00:26:24.080 What?

00:26:26.200 He's the president.

00:26:27.840 We're not going

00:26:28.340 to talk about

00:26:28.860 how he mysteriously

00:26:29.800 got great wealth

00:26:31.920 without having a job

00:26:33.040 that provided

00:26:33.640 that much income?

00:26:37.000 Nobody's curious.

00:26:38.940 Well,

00:26:39.520 what if

00:26:39.980 that's exactly

00:26:41.620 what it looks like?

00:26:43.360 He's been on the take

00:26:44.560 for decades.

00:26:45.440 That's what it looks like.

00:26:47.800 And so what if

00:26:48.320 it's exactly

00:26:49.280 what it looks like?

00:26:50.920 Now,

00:26:51.920 apparently,

00:26:52.600 he had classified documents

00:26:54.800 like a snail trail

00:26:56.880 wherever he went.

00:26:58.560 You know,

00:26:58.820 now,

00:26:59.160 I speculated

00:26:59.800 that he was leaving

00:27:00.420 the documents

00:27:01.000 so he could find

00:27:01.620 his way back

00:27:02.260 from wherever he went.

00:27:03.760 I don't know

00:27:04.180 if that's true.

00:27:05.160 Just speculation.

00:27:06.900 But,

00:27:07.480 three locations

00:27:09.380 so far,

00:27:10.020 right?

00:27:12.000 Three is a pattern.

00:27:13.380 One could be a mistake.

00:27:17.240 Two could be a mistake.

00:27:19.000 Three is a pretty

00:27:19.740 clear pattern,

00:27:20.900 especially since

00:27:21.840 it's documents

00:27:22.580 that predate

00:27:24.040 his presidency.

00:27:26.280 Now,

00:27:27.200 in these same homes,

00:27:29.420 we presume

00:27:31.040 that Hunter Biden

00:27:32.640 had access

00:27:33.320 to all three places,

00:27:35.080 correct?

00:27:36.160 Hunter Biden

00:27:36.920 had easy access

00:27:37.780 to all three places.

00:27:38.840 and we know

00:27:40.300 that he was trying

00:27:40.960 to sell

00:27:41.620 at least influence

00:27:43.780 to foreign countries.

00:27:46.260 So,

00:27:46.940 what it looks

00:27:47.520 exactly like

00:27:48.680 is that Joe Biden

00:27:50.160 for decades

00:27:51.000 has been

00:27:51.500 a huge criminal

00:27:52.680 for decades.

00:27:55.140 A huge criminal.

00:27:56.900 And that

00:27:57.820 Hunter

00:27:58.320 is part of

00:27:59.320 monetizing it.

00:28:00.960 And that

00:28:01.400 they've been

00:28:02.060 offering

00:28:03.520 or selling

00:28:04.460 state secrets

00:28:06.840 to other countries

00:28:07.920 for decades.

00:28:11.900 If everything

00:28:12.780 else is exactly

00:28:13.740 what it looks like,

00:28:15.080 why would this

00:28:15.580 one be different?

00:28:16.920 It looks

00:28:17.520 exactly like it,

00:28:19.080 and you would

00:28:19.580 have to take a

00:28:20.460 pro...

00:28:20.880 You'd need a crowbar

00:28:22.160 to pry me off

00:28:23.660 that opinion.

00:28:24.840 Because there's no

00:28:25.820 information

00:28:26.940 countering it

00:28:27.980 at all.

00:28:30.120 Now,

00:28:30.720 remember,

00:28:31.880 individuals

00:28:32.340 are innocent

00:28:33.340 until proven guilty.

00:28:34.320 So,

00:28:36.880 the Bidens

00:28:37.360 as individuals,

00:28:39.640 innocent until

00:28:40.140 proven guilty.

00:28:41.180 But,

00:28:41.980 Joe Biden

00:28:42.440 is also

00:28:43.080 the government.

00:28:45.620 And,

00:28:46.140 the government

00:28:46.960 is guilty

00:28:48.640 until proven innocent.

00:28:50.420 So,

00:28:51.060 if you're going to

00:28:51.580 walk around

00:28:52.000 being my president

00:28:52.960 and looking

00:28:54.200 guilty

00:28:54.820 as

00:28:55.720 heck,

00:28:59.480 it took me...

00:29:00.480 That was hard

00:29:01.220 to pull that one back.

00:29:02.600 guilty as

00:29:04.160 heck.

00:29:06.680 Well,

00:29:07.240 I'm going to

00:29:07.580 assume you are.

00:29:09.060 So,

00:29:09.400 as of today,

00:29:10.340 my operating

00:29:10.980 assumption is

00:29:11.680 that the criminal...

00:29:12.660 The president

00:29:13.780 of the United States,

00:29:14.840 Joe Biden,

00:29:15.760 is and has been

00:29:16.780 a major criminal

00:29:18.000 and a traitor

00:29:19.500 for decades.

00:29:21.900 That's...

00:29:22.580 That's my

00:29:23.320 working assumption

00:29:24.180 because all

00:29:25.000 information suggests it.

00:29:26.940 Now,

00:29:28.120 I'm open to...

00:29:29.580 I'm open to

00:29:31.300 him opening

00:29:31.820 his books

00:29:32.360 and explaining

00:29:32.960 how he got

00:29:33.440 these homes.

00:29:35.420 I'm open to,

00:29:36.680 you know,

00:29:37.000 finding out

00:29:37.520 that it's all

00:29:38.080 a big lie

00:29:38.640 and it's all

00:29:39.780 some big

00:29:40.320 conservative

00:29:40.900 conspiracy theory

00:29:42.020 and he doesn't

00:29:45.000 even sniff

00:29:45.560 girls' hair.

00:29:46.280 That's all

00:29:46.620 just a lie.

00:29:47.660 So,

00:29:48.160 I'm open to

00:29:48.800 counter-evidence.

00:29:50.280 But,

00:29:50.500 as of now,

00:29:51.420 I think it's

00:29:51.840 a safe

00:29:52.480 statement of fact,

00:29:54.700 preliminary,

00:29:55.760 that we're led

00:29:57.940 by a major

00:29:58.660 criminal

00:29:59.060 which would

00:30:01.600 explain why

00:30:02.200 he's not

00:30:02.520 doing anything

00:30:03.040 on the border

00:30:03.620 useful

00:30:05.320 and why

00:30:06.400 he's not

00:30:06.880 doing anything

00:30:07.520 about TikTok

00:30:08.060 and fentanyl

00:30:09.120 and it would

00:30:10.000 explain everything.

00:30:11.700 So,

00:30:12.080 if it explains

00:30:12.940 everything,

00:30:13.960 that should be

00:30:14.560 your working

00:30:15.020 hypothesis.

00:30:16.400 So,

00:30:16.680 we should all

00:30:17.060 just assume

00:30:17.540 it's true.

00:30:18.460 Just assume

00:30:19.100 it's true

00:30:19.420 and if he wants

00:30:21.140 to prove it isn't,

00:30:22.480 I'm open to that.

00:30:23.240 All right.

00:30:25.820 One of my

00:30:26.560 favorite things

00:30:29.740 to watch

00:30:30.160 on the internet

00:30:30.680 is,

00:30:32.200 you know,

00:30:32.380 you're all

00:30:32.680 watching the

00:30:33.260 Crowder

00:30:33.820 versus the 0.55

00:30:36.380 Daily Wire

00:30:36.980 where Daily Wire

00:30:38.780 offered him

00:30:39.420 a deal

00:30:40.140 but in it

00:30:40.900 was

00:30:41.280 some clauses

00:30:44.040 that say

00:30:44.500 if he got

00:30:44.940 cancelled

00:30:45.440 on social media

00:30:46.380 that they

00:30:48.020 wouldn't pay

00:30:48.440 him as much

00:30:48.900 money.

00:30:49.920 Some people

00:30:50.500 called that

00:30:50.960 a penalty.

00:30:51.420 I called it

00:30:53.260 a normal

00:30:53.860 business deal

00:30:54.620 in which

00:30:55.040 you're sharing

00:30:55.540 revenue.

00:30:57.800 Penalty?

00:31:00.400 I guess

00:31:01.040 all of my

00:31:01.500 contracts

00:31:01.920 are penalties.

00:31:03.520 I guess

00:31:03.800 my book

00:31:04.220 deal's a penalty

00:31:04.940 because you

00:31:05.720 know what?

00:31:06.060 If I don't

00:31:06.480 sell enough

00:31:07.020 books,

00:31:07.720 that publisher

00:31:08.640 is not going

00:31:09.120 to give me

00:31:09.440 money.

00:31:10.520 Can you

00:31:10.840 believe it?

00:31:12.140 Like,

00:31:12.500 if I don't

00:31:13.100 produce money

00:31:13.740 for both of

00:31:14.400 us,

00:31:14.760 they won't

00:31:15.280 give me

00:31:15.580 my half.

00:31:16.780 I know.

00:31:17.840 I know.

00:31:19.060 It's like,

00:31:19.620 well,

00:31:19.900 not half,

00:31:20.460 but whatever

00:31:20.740 it is.

00:31:21.020 But it's

00:31:22.080 totally criminal

00:31:22.780 that if we

00:31:24.420 make a deal

00:31:25.040 that we'll

00:31:25.760 both make

00:31:26.300 money and

00:31:27.440 that we

00:31:27.700 don't make

00:31:28.120 any money,

00:31:28.640 they're not

00:31:28.980 going to

00:31:29.180 pay me.

00:31:30.780 Bastards.

00:31:32.160 Wow.

00:31:33.120 Anyway,

00:31:34.620 so here's

00:31:35.840 my favorite

00:31:36.260 thing,

00:31:36.600 is watching

00:31:37.020 Mike

00:31:37.320 Cernovich

00:31:37.940 disembowel

00:31:40.420 Crowder's

00:31:41.760 argument

00:31:42.160 at all

00:31:42.640 of his

00:31:42.900 supporters.

00:31:45.520 And,

00:31:46.200 you know,

00:31:47.080 he's the

00:31:47.880 only one

00:31:48.240 who can

00:31:48.480 see the

00:31:48.820 whole field

00:31:49.440 that's

00:31:49.980 talking about

00:31:50.580 it.

00:31:53.380 You know,

00:31:54.080 because,

00:31:54.500 you know,

00:31:54.820 I'm always

00:31:55.420 a big fan

00:31:55.960 of Cernovich

00:31:56.360 in general,

00:31:57.060 but,

00:31:57.400 you know,

00:31:57.560 he's an

00:31:57.920 attorney,

00:31:58.580 he's a

00:31:58.900 business

00:31:59.200 person,

00:31:59.920 he's seen

00:32:00.400 enough in

00:32:00.800 the world

00:32:01.120 that he

00:32:01.400 knows what

00:32:01.740 a business

00:32:02.140 deal is

00:32:02.620 supposed to

00:32:03.080 look like,

00:32:04.040 and he

00:32:04.720 sees this

00:32:05.260 entire thing

00:32:05.860 for what it

00:32:06.340 is.

00:32:07.400 I don't

00:32:07.980 think there's

00:32:08.340 any hidden

00:32:08.920 dark corners.

00:32:12.860 I think

00:32:13.700 he sees

00:32:14.100 the whole

00:32:14.360 field.

00:32:15.480 And he's

00:32:15.760 calling the

00:32:16.860 balls and 0.99

00:32:17.400 strikes here,

00:32:17.940 it's kind

00:32:18.220 of hilarious.

00:32:19.020 So you

00:32:19.240 should watch,

00:32:20.140 you should

00:32:20.360 follow Cernovich

00:32:20.980 anyway,

00:32:21.960 but you

00:32:22.460 should definitely

00:32:23.020 look at his

00:32:24.320 Crowder comments.

00:32:25.460 I'll tell you

00:32:25.820 what he's

00:32:26.040 saying.

00:32:28.180 So,

00:32:28.660 you know,

00:32:29.020 Crowder's

00:32:29.380 claiming that

00:32:30.140 Big Con,

00:32:31.960 as he calls

00:32:32.400 it,

00:32:32.700 the big

00:32:33.140 conservative

00:32:33.660 groups,

00:32:35.400 are working

00:32:36.260 with big

00:32:36.940 tech,

00:32:37.740 so they're

00:32:38.920 not exactly

00:32:39.500 on the other

00:32:39.980 side of big

00:32:40.480 tech,

00:32:40.640 they're

00:32:40.840 working

00:32:41.120 with them

00:32:41.560 because they

00:32:42.200 like to

00:32:42.580 monetize,

00:32:43.680 you know,

00:32:44.020 through big

00:32:44.440 tech,

00:32:44.820 so they

00:32:45.120 want to

00:32:45.340 keep them

00:32:45.620 on their

00:32:45.840 side.

00:32:46.660 So his

00:32:47.100 take is that

00:32:48.100 nobody's

00:32:48.900 sort of

00:32:49.480 working for

00:32:49.880 the artist

00:32:50.440 who doesn't

00:32:51.720 want to get

00:32:52.100 banned on

00:32:52.840 social media

00:32:53.460 because all

00:32:54.540 the big

00:32:55.160 conservatives

00:32:55.660 are just

00:32:56.220 working with

00:32:56.800 the platforms

00:32:57.600 like everybody

00:32:58.200 else.

00:32:59.860 Now,

00:33:00.940 what Cernovich

00:33:01.480 asked is,

00:33:03.840 he gives

00:33:04.200 some details

00:33:05.080 about,

00:33:05.580 he goes,

00:33:06.280 he goes,

00:33:06.880 how?

00:33:07.920 People keep

00:33:08.500 saying Daily Wire

00:33:09.380 is in bed

00:33:09.980 with big

00:33:10.440 tech.

00:33:11.700 Cite

00:33:11.920 examples.

00:33:14.840 And then he

00:33:15.380 says he's

00:33:15.740 not a Daily

00:33:16.460 Wire fanboy,

00:33:18.240 but can

00:33:20.180 anybody give

00:33:20.880 an example

00:33:21.400 of how the

00:33:22.080 Daily Wire

00:33:22.640 is doing

00:33:23.140 something with

00:33:24.440 big tech

00:33:24.920 that you

00:33:25.240 wouldn't

00:33:25.480 like?

00:33:26.500 Like,

00:33:26.740 what would

00:33:26.980 be that?

00:33:28.040 Now,

00:33:28.540 why did we

00:33:29.280 have to get

00:33:29.700 to today,

00:33:31.360 and why

00:33:31.760 did it have

00:33:32.160 to be Mike

00:33:32.660 Cernovich

00:33:33.060 to ask the

00:33:33.720 question,

00:33:35.140 do you have

00:33:36.560 even one

00:33:37.120 example?

00:33:37.640 just one

00:33:40.080 example?

00:33:42.120 Now,

00:33:42.560 maybe he

00:33:42.920 does,

00:33:43.760 but why

00:33:44.240 haven't we

00:33:44.620 heard one

00:33:45.080 example up

00:33:45.740 until now?

00:33:46.580 No examples?

00:33:49.180 Self-censorship?

00:33:50.480 No.

00:33:51.820 All right,

00:33:52.180 well,

00:33:52.400 I think it's

00:33:52.760 up to Crowder

00:33:53.900 to give us

00:33:54.280 some examples,

00:33:55.060 and maybe he

00:33:55.460 has them.

00:33:56.240 If he has

00:33:56.880 them,

00:33:57.040 we'll talk

00:33:57.360 about it,

00:33:58.080 because I'd

00:33:58.720 like to know

00:33:59.140 that,

00:33:59.400 wouldn't

00:33:59.540 you?

00:34:00.580 I mean,

00:34:01.020 if his

00:34:01.420 claim holds

00:34:02.960 up,

00:34:04.320 I'd certainly

00:34:05.020 like to know

00:34:05.580 it,

00:34:05.780 so give

00:34:06.940 us some

00:34:07.200 examples.

00:34:07.760 Maybe you

00:34:08.100 can flip

00:34:08.540 us to

00:34:09.560 your side.

00:34:11.780 And then I

00:34:12.080 guess we

00:34:12.380 found out

00:34:12.940 that Crowder 0.99

00:34:15.240 says he

00:34:15.960 wasn't about

00:34:16.860 the money,

00:34:18.120 and then he

00:34:19.160 was asked on

00:34:19.940 Tim Pool's

00:34:21.040 show,

00:34:22.760 Timcast,

00:34:24.120 he was

00:34:24.540 asked,

00:34:25.260 but didn't

00:34:26.320 your agent

00:34:27.260 ask for

00:34:29.420 more money?

00:34:30.900 But it

00:34:31.340 wasn't about

00:34:31.800 the money,

00:34:32.420 but your

00:34:32.760 agent countered 0.57

00:34:34.320 and asked

00:34:34.700 for more

00:34:35.120 money.

00:34:37.140 And Crowder,

00:34:38.720 I think he

00:34:39.760 acknowledged that

00:34:40.460 his agent

00:34:41.040 might have,

00:34:42.220 but he

00:34:42.640 didn't.

00:34:43.940 But he

00:34:44.280 didn't.

00:34:47.200 So,

00:34:48.180 what do you

00:34:48.560 think Mike

00:34:48.960 Cernovich said

00:34:49.780 about that?

00:34:51.340 That Crowder 0.99

00:34:52.240 didn't make an

00:34:53.020 offer,

00:34:53.380 but his agent

00:34:54.020 did?

00:34:54.980 It's exactly

00:34:55.840 what you

00:34:56.200 think.

00:34:58.400 Exactly

00:34:58.920 what you

00:34:59.340 think.

00:35:00.260 All right.

00:35:00.540 All right.

00:35:04.320 Yeah.

00:35:07.960 So,

00:35:08.880 let's talk

00:35:10.480 about that

00:35:10.820 border crossing.

00:35:12.680 I saw an

00:35:13.500 Adam Shaw

00:35:14.140 tweet,

00:35:14.760 he's a

00:35:15.100 Fox News

00:35:15.740 journalist,

00:35:17.800 reporter,

00:35:18.340 I'm not sure

00:35:19.040 what they're

00:35:19.320 called these

00:35:19.700 days,

00:35:20.000 correspondent

00:35:20.460 maybe,

00:35:21.720 and he

00:35:22.260 says the

00:35:22.580 border numbers

00:35:23.140 for December

00:35:23.860 are out.

00:35:25.060 This is for

00:35:25.660 one month.

00:35:27.880 For one

00:35:28.680 month.

00:35:29.060 The number

00:35:31.000 of border

00:35:31.480 crossings,

00:35:33.720 251,000

00:35:36.580 encounters.

00:35:38.180 That's how

00:35:38.520 many encounters

00:35:39.140 there were.

00:35:39.720 We don't

00:35:40.140 know how

00:35:40.440 many crossed

00:35:40.980 and didn't

00:35:41.400 get counted.

00:35:43.360 That was

00:35:43.980 just the

00:35:44.340 number of

00:35:44.700 encounters.

00:35:47.600 Encounters.

00:35:50.180 How many

00:35:50.840 do we

00:35:51.160 stop?

00:35:52.980 One in

00:35:53.760 four?

00:35:55.000 Does

00:35:55.200 anybody know

00:35:55.620 how many

00:35:55.860 do we

00:35:56.040 stop?

00:35:56.780 One in

00:35:57.420 three?

00:35:58.000 One in

00:35:58.340 ten?

00:35:58.540 I have

00:35:59.160 no idea.

00:36:00.940 My guess

00:36:01.760 would be

00:36:02.440 one in

00:36:04.420 four,

00:36:06.120 like with

00:36:06.560 no background

00:36:07.360 information to

00:36:08.260 back that

00:36:09.180 up.

00:36:10.320 All right.

00:36:11.040 Well,

00:36:12.260 so that's

00:36:13.940 a pretty

00:36:14.240 high run

00:36:14.800 rate.

00:36:16.560 But again,

00:36:18.240 let me

00:36:19.280 remind you

00:36:19.900 how Trump

00:36:21.000 can win

00:36:21.680 both

00:36:22.300 Republicans

00:36:23.140 and Democrats

00:36:24.020 on border

00:36:24.860 issue.

00:36:26.540 High ground

00:36:27.140 maneuver.

00:36:28.540 you say

00:36:29.160 this.

00:36:30.080 It's not

00:36:30.700 about stopping

00:36:31.380 people coming

00:36:32.100 in.

00:36:33.060 It's about

00:36:33.520 having a

00:36:34.060 system where

00:36:34.640 we can let

00:36:35.660 the good

00:36:36.000 ones in

00:36:36.460 and stop

00:36:36.920 the criminals,

00:36:38.500 for example.

00:36:39.920 So what we

00:36:40.660 need is some

00:36:41.240 independent group

00:36:42.180 of economists

00:36:43.900 to tell us

00:36:45.440 what's the right

00:36:45.980 number and mix

00:36:46.960 of people to

00:36:47.520 let in and

00:36:49.140 let that all

00:36:49.820 be public.

00:36:50.360 It should be a

00:36:51.160 bipartisan

00:36:51.640 group,

00:36:53.260 maybe one

00:36:54.840 more Republican

00:36:55.600 just because

00:36:56.240 if Republicans

00:36:57.300 put it

00:36:57.680 together,

00:36:58.360 everybody gets

00:36:58.920 to have one

00:36:59.320 more person

00:36:59.780 if they're

00:37:00.140 in charge.

00:37:02.760 And then

00:37:03.500 make it all

00:37:03.940 public,

00:37:05.020 like the

00:37:05.560 OMB.

00:37:06.800 One of the

00:37:07.620 most surprising

00:37:08.240 things to

00:37:09.080 me is that

00:37:10.220 the Office

00:37:10.840 of Management

00:37:11.540 and Budgets

00:37:12.220 is actually

00:37:13.500 deemed

00:37:15.860 somewhat credible

00:37:16.700 by both

00:37:17.660 sides.

00:37:18.480 Am I wrong

00:37:18.940 about that?

00:37:19.340 Give me a

00:37:19.640 fact check on

00:37:20.180 that.

00:37:21.440 Is it a

00:37:22.600 fact that

00:37:24.880 the OMB

00:37:25.800 that always

00:37:26.320 scores the

00:37:27.120 federal budgets,

00:37:29.080 aren't they

00:37:29.560 considered credible?

00:37:32.540 I mean,

00:37:32.840 maybe not,

00:37:33.800 but I always

00:37:34.420 thought they

00:37:34.700 were because

00:37:35.400 they work for

00:37:36.140 both administrations

00:37:37.340 and I don't

00:37:38.900 think that the

00:37:39.480 staffers,

00:37:40.400 I don't think

00:37:40.820 they're necessarily

00:37:41.840 appointed,

00:37:42.440 are they?

00:37:43.040 Maybe just

00:37:43.600 the head?

00:37:45.800 The GBO

00:37:46.720 or the CBO?

00:37:49.120 It's the CBO?

00:37:50.520 All right,

00:37:50.900 whatever it is.

00:37:52.020 So,

00:37:53.060 do you think

00:37:53.820 that there

00:37:54.160 could be a

00:37:54.680 credible,

00:37:55.380 permanent

00:37:55.700 organization,

00:37:57.200 and maybe

00:37:57.700 it's something

00:37:58.960 that's already

00:37:59.520 in the

00:37:59.760 government,

00:38:00.580 that would

00:38:01.060 tell us

00:38:01.580 what is the

00:38:02.100 number of

00:38:03.280 immigrants

00:38:04.680 and what

00:38:05.560 types and

00:38:06.080 from where

00:38:06.520 to come in?

00:38:08.420 Because I

00:38:08.980 don't think

00:38:09.260 the president

00:38:09.660 should make

00:38:10.080 that decision.

00:38:11.480 Do you?

00:38:12.560 Any president.

00:38:14.060 I don't think

00:38:14.780 the president

00:38:15.300 should decide

00:38:16.060 on the mix.

00:38:17.920 That's way 0.98

00:38:18.920 outside their

00:38:21.900 strike zone.

00:38:23.400 I think

00:38:23.700 economists and

00:38:24.560 business people

00:38:25.180 should decide

00:38:25.860 on the mix.

00:38:27.260 You know,

00:38:27.440 input from

00:38:28.040 business,

00:38:28.480 how many

00:38:28.740 employees do

00:38:29.360 you need

00:38:29.660 that you

00:38:30.020 can't get.

00:38:31.420 And,

00:38:31.800 you know,

00:38:32.020 then also

00:38:32.780 there should

00:38:33.160 be advocates

00:38:33.980 for Americans,

00:38:35.300 right?

00:38:36.060 So if you've

00:38:36.760 got some kind

00:38:37.300 of a group

00:38:37.700 doing that

00:38:38.280 calculation,

00:38:39.360 you need at

00:38:40.000 least somebody

00:38:40.520 in that group

00:38:41.100 who's going

00:38:41.420 to say,

00:38:41.700 okay,

00:38:41.920 but you've

00:38:42.840 got to

00:38:43.120 consider,

00:38:43.980 you know,

00:38:44.320 how that's

00:38:44.660 going to

00:38:44.840 come out

00:38:45.140 of the

00:38:45.300 pockets of

00:38:45.800 the poor

00:38:46.200 directly or

00:38:47.000 indirectly.

00:38:47.960 And all that

00:38:48.500 stuff.

00:38:49.500 So I think

00:38:50.820 Trump can

00:38:52.320 take the high

00:38:52.920 ground and

00:38:53.480 say,

00:38:54.140 let's take

00:38:54.500 the president

00:38:55.040 out of the

00:38:55.560 decision of

00:38:56.060 who comes

00:38:56.420 in.

00:38:59.100 Let's have

00:38:59.680 a tight

00:39:00.000 border,

00:39:00.960 but take

00:39:01.360 the politics

00:39:02.420 out of who

00:39:02.940 comes in.

00:39:04.100 How does

00:39:04.640 that not

00:39:04.980 work?

00:39:07.020 I think

00:39:07.700 Trump just

00:39:08.560 walks into

00:39:09.060 the presidency

00:39:09.640 if he says

00:39:10.240 that.

00:39:10.520 I think

00:39:11.420 he'd just

00:39:11.680 walk right

00:39:12.120 in.

00:39:12.920 Because if

00:39:13.880 he just

00:39:14.180 says,

00:39:14.960 you know,

00:39:15.200 I'll do

00:39:15.780 the president

00:39:16.280 thing of

00:39:17.060 controlling the

00:39:17.700 border,

00:39:18.500 but separately,

00:39:19.640 let's take

00:39:20.100 the who

00:39:20.520 gets in

00:39:20.940 out of

00:39:21.180 politics,

00:39:22.260 and we'll

00:39:22.580 create a

00:39:22.960 bipartisan

00:39:23.380 group.

00:39:24.580 You tell

00:39:24.960 me he

00:39:25.280 wouldn't get

00:39:25.600 elected on

00:39:26.080 that?

00:39:26.940 In a

00:39:27.400 heartbeat,

00:39:27.800 he would.

00:39:29.720 Easily.

00:39:30.560 He would

00:39:31.020 just walk

00:39:31.440 into the

00:39:31.780 office if

00:39:32.240 he said

00:39:32.480 that.

00:39:33.460 Because

00:39:33.900 the border

00:39:35.380 is where

00:39:35.800 people put

00:39:36.320 up the most

00:39:36.800 resistance

00:39:37.320 because they

00:39:37.900 feel the

00:39:38.880 dog whistle.

00:39:40.520 Just take

00:39:41.200 the dog

00:39:41.560 whistle out.

00:39:42.860 Because it's

00:39:43.680 not something

00:39:44.120 Trump needed.

00:39:45.480 He didn't

00:39:46.140 need a dog

00:39:46.620 whistle.

00:39:47.400 So just

00:39:47.760 take it

00:39:48.020 out.

00:39:49.820 All right.

00:39:52.080 There was a

00:39:52.820 weird story

00:39:53.440 about DeMar

00:39:54.540 Hamlin,

00:39:56.260 the football

00:39:57.340 player who

00:39:57.860 collapsed on

00:39:58.360 the field.

00:39:58.960 And I guess

00:39:59.780 he's healthy

00:40:00.420 enough to be

00:40:01.260 walking around

00:40:01.840 and he

00:40:02.140 attended a

00:40:03.420 game yesterday.

00:40:04.400 But he

00:40:05.980 wore a

00:40:06.680 mask and

00:40:07.640 sunglasses

00:40:08.560 and a

00:40:09.080 hat and

00:40:10.580 never showed

00:40:11.120 his face.

00:40:12.740 So the

00:40:13.140 videos of

00:40:13.720 him don't

00:40:14.240 show his

00:40:14.600 face.

00:40:15.300 So of

00:40:15.600 course,

00:40:16.820 of course,

00:40:17.940 of course,

00:40:20.740 people think

00:40:21.560 it's not

00:40:21.920 really him

00:40:22.400 and he

00:40:22.620 died.

00:40:24.120 Okay.

00:40:24.480 I'm pretty

00:40:25.160 sure we

00:40:25.620 would know

00:40:26.020 if he

00:40:26.320 died.

00:40:27.240 Like that

00:40:27.580 would be a

00:40:27.940 hard one

00:40:28.500 to keep a

00:40:29.180 secret.

00:40:29.780 So I

00:40:30.080 don't think

00:40:30.340 he died.

00:40:30.680 I think

00:40:31.560 it might

00:40:31.800 have more

00:40:32.540 to do

00:40:32.880 with who

00:40:34.400 knows.

00:40:35.080 Just didn't

00:40:35.500 want to talk

00:40:35.920 to people

00:40:36.360 or whatever

00:40:37.020 it was.

00:40:37.940 So he

00:40:38.340 may have

00:40:38.660 had some

00:40:38.960 medical or

00:40:39.500 other reasons.

00:40:40.700 But are

00:40:41.640 you amazed

00:40:42.360 that we've

00:40:42.800 got to

00:40:43.160 today and

00:40:43.760 we don't

00:40:44.180 have a

00:40:45.260 cause for

00:40:45.980 his problem?

00:40:47.700 There's no

00:40:48.320 official cause?

00:40:51.520 May we

00:40:52.160 take the

00:40:52.560 standard that

00:40:53.220 we have

00:40:53.520 been using

00:40:54.080 up to

00:40:54.660 this point

00:40:55.120 today?

00:40:56.280 The

00:40:56.500 standard is

00:40:57.200 maybe it's

00:40:58.340 exactly what

00:40:59.240 it looks

00:40:59.560 like.

00:41:00.220 What if

00:41:00.660 it's

00:41:00.860 exactly

00:41:01.520 what it

00:41:02.000 looks like?

00:41:02.980 Because what

00:41:03.440 it looks

00:41:03.860 like is he

00:41:04.480 may have

00:41:04.840 been vaccinated

00:41:05.480 recently.

00:41:06.380 Am I

00:41:06.680 right?

00:41:07.880 Because if

00:41:08.500 that were

00:41:08.860 not the

00:41:09.340 case, I'm

00:41:10.520 sure they

00:41:11.020 would have

00:41:11.280 told us

00:41:11.720 that right

00:41:12.260 up front.

00:41:13.760 I guess

00:41:15.240 they all

00:41:15.460 had to be

00:41:15.760 vaccinated.

00:41:16.680 But if

00:41:17.260 he had

00:41:17.500 been recently

00:41:18.220 vaccinated,

00:41:19.320 let's say

00:41:19.660 recently

00:41:20.040 boosted,

00:41:21.600 it's

00:41:23.960 got to

00:41:24.220 be that.

00:41:26.020 Am I

00:41:26.340 right?

00:41:27.320 Now,

00:41:28.260 they're not

00:41:28.680 saying it

00:41:29.340 so you

00:41:29.800 can never

00:41:30.100 be 100%

00:41:30.760 sure.

00:41:31.520 But if

00:41:32.100 your gut

00:41:32.900 instinct is

00:41:34.060 to say,

00:41:34.560 well, if

00:41:34.860 it looks

00:41:35.200 exactly like

00:41:36.060 it, and

00:41:36.940 they're not

00:41:37.280 even bothering

00:41:37.980 to deny

00:41:38.620 it, that

00:41:39.840 should be

00:41:40.140 your starting

00:41:40.620 assumption.

00:41:42.000 Your starting

00:41:42.840 assumption is

00:41:43.520 that he got

00:41:44.060 the vaccination

00:41:44.920 and fell

00:41:45.400 down.

00:41:46.040 They don't

00:41:46.300 want to

00:41:46.560 tell you.

00:41:47.640 Am I

00:41:47.940 right?

00:41:49.420 Now, let

00:41:50.920 me make a

00:41:51.340 distinction.

00:41:51.740 I also

00:41:54.700 was debunking

00:41:56.800 some of

00:41:57.220 those suddenly

00:41:57.940 died

00:41:58.380 athletes,

00:41:59.240 because a

00:41:59.680 number of

00:41:59.960 them actually

00:42:00.500 were video

00:42:01.060 of people

00:42:01.400 died before

00:42:02.040 the pandemic.

00:42:03.300 And some

00:42:03.860 of them

00:42:04.080 didn't die,

00:42:04.740 and they

00:42:04.900 were fine,

00:42:05.360 they just

00:42:05.640 got up.

00:42:06.460 So a lot

00:42:06.960 of the

00:42:07.300 video you've

00:42:08.440 seen of

00:42:08.780 athletes dying,

00:42:10.080 a lot of

00:42:11.020 it was fake,

00:42:12.040 for sure.

00:42:13.300 But not

00:42:13.680 all of it.

00:42:15.080 You know,

00:42:15.380 like, not all

00:42:16.940 of it was

00:42:17.280 debunked,

00:42:17.900 but there

00:42:18.080 were just

00:42:18.280 some obvious

00:42:19.160 ones that

00:42:20.220 were wrong.

00:42:22.580 But this

00:42:23.240 is a

00:42:23.500 different

00:42:23.700 situation.

00:42:24.860 This is

00:42:25.220 one specific

00:42:26.040 person who

00:42:27.780 is, you

00:42:28.520 know, having

00:42:29.200 a public

00:42:30.020 medical

00:42:30.700 situation,

00:42:31.340 and is

00:42:32.780 not telling

00:42:33.280 you the

00:42:33.680 thing you

00:42:34.000 would most

00:42:34.500 want to

00:42:34.860 know.

00:42:35.880 Did you

00:42:36.280 recently get

00:42:36.980 vaccinated?

00:42:39.700 That's all

00:42:40.300 you need to

00:42:40.720 know.

00:42:41.600 Clearly,

00:42:42.360 that's the

00:42:43.100 problem here.

00:42:44.200 Now, I'm

00:42:44.700 not saying

00:42:45.060 that the

00:42:45.300 vaccination

00:42:45.620 injured it.

00:42:47.580 I want

00:42:48.180 to be

00:42:48.360 clear about

00:42:48.800 that.

00:42:50.900 But it's

00:42:51.540 pretty clear

00:42:52.200 that they're

00:42:52.720 not telling

00:42:53.200 you he got

00:42:53.660 vaccinated

00:42:54.140 recently.

00:42:55.720 Does anybody

00:42:56.420 disagree?

00:42:57.760 That we

00:42:58.240 could conclude

00:42:58.820 that with a

00:42:59.460 pretty high

00:43:00.040 degree of

00:43:00.500 certainty,

00:43:01.420 that he was

00:43:01.740 probably boosted

00:43:03.000 recently.

00:43:04.020 And I think

00:43:04.700 probably all

00:43:05.220 of them were.

00:43:06.760 Right?

00:43:07.280 Don't all

00:43:08.000 the professional

00:43:09.040 athletes have

00:43:09.660 to get boosted?

00:43:11.040 Like, boosted

00:43:11.720 and boosted

00:43:12.120 and boosted?

00:43:12.640 I think they

00:43:13.120 do.

00:43:13.940 I think it's

00:43:14.400 just required.

00:43:15.640 So, yeah,

00:43:17.100 you should

00:43:17.620 assume it's

00:43:18.120 exactly what

00:43:18.800 it looks

00:43:19.060 like.

00:43:19.480 That would

00:43:19.800 be a fair

00:43:20.160 assumption.

00:43:22.480 All right.

00:43:24.660 So, there's

00:43:26.520 an update on

00:43:27.120 Russia and

00:43:27.680 Kyiv.

00:43:28.240 By the way,

00:43:29.120 stay with

00:43:30.080 me if you

00:43:30.700 want to see

00:43:31.100 me admit

00:43:32.700 more about

00:43:33.780 things I got

00:43:34.440 wrong on

00:43:34.860 the pandemic.

00:43:35.880 If anybody

00:43:36.300 likes me to

00:43:37.380 admit I'm

00:43:37.780 wrong, stick

00:43:39.700 around.

00:43:40.060 We'll do

00:43:40.260 that last.

00:43:40.680 So, there's

00:43:43.700 some people

00:43:44.320 speculating

00:43:44.900 that Russia 0.72

00:43:46.720 is going

00:43:47.160 to mass

00:43:47.800 forces in

00:43:48.540 Belarus

00:43:48.900 and then

00:43:50.500 attack Kyiv

00:43:51.560 from there

00:43:52.720 and, you

00:43:53.680 know, destroy 0.69

00:43:54.320 Kyiv and

00:43:55.040 declare victory

00:43:56.200 or something.

00:43:57.680 Does that

00:43:58.260 sound like

00:43:59.140 something that

00:43:59.560 might happen?

00:44:01.420 Do you think

00:44:02.060 that's going

00:44:02.400 to happen?

00:44:04.040 That feels

00:44:04.940 unlikely to me.

00:44:07.020 Yeah.

00:44:07.280 I'm not

00:44:07.880 going to

00:44:08.060 rule it

00:44:08.360 out.

00:44:09.440 I think

00:44:10.260 that given

00:44:10.740 the winter

00:44:11.220 pause, it

00:44:13.300 changes everything

00:44:14.120 because you

00:44:14.620 don't know

00:44:15.180 which side

00:44:16.100 did a better

00:44:16.560 job of

00:44:17.020 preparing for

00:44:17.680 after the

00:44:18.100 pause.

00:44:19.260 So, I

00:44:20.440 think at

00:44:20.700 this point,

00:44:21.920 the war is

00:44:22.820 a toss-up.

00:44:24.340 I don't

00:44:25.040 think as of

00:44:25.800 today, you

00:44:27.380 could say

00:44:27.840 Ukraine or

00:44:28.700 Russia are 0.88

00:44:29.160 winning.

00:44:30.440 It looks

00:44:30.880 like a toss-up

00:44:32.400 to me.

00:44:33.220 What do you

00:44:33.600 think?

00:44:34.860 I think it's

00:44:35.780 now in

00:44:36.400 solidly

00:44:37.100 unpredictable

00:44:37.760 territory.

00:44:39.200 Not that it

00:44:39.960 was ever

00:44:40.240 super predictable.

00:44:43.500 Admit

00:44:43.800 defeat.

00:44:45.060 You mean

00:44:45.360 admit defeat

00:44:46.080 that Ukraine 0.91

00:44:47.020 will lose?

00:44:49.200 I'm always

00:44:49.980 open to

00:44:50.380 that.

00:44:52.480 I've

00:44:53.000 predicted that

00:44:54.180 Russia would 0.98

00:44:54.720 be unsuccessful

00:44:55.580 conquering

00:44:57.120 Ukraine, but

00:44:58.960 if they

00:44:59.220 wait long

00:44:59.700 enough, I

00:45:01.360 would acknowledge

00:45:02.420 that if

00:45:03.200 Russia wanted 0.91

00:45:04.840 to risk

00:45:05.880 everything and

00:45:06.480 wait long

00:45:06.920 enough, that

00:45:07.320 they could

00:45:07.620 take Ukraine 0.95

00:45:08.260 probably.

00:45:09.720 Yeah, so

00:45:10.000 I'll give

00:45:10.300 you that.

00:45:15.520 All right.

00:45:18.080 It's a

00:45:18.640 draw.

00:45:19.240 I think the

00:45:19.820 most likely

00:45:20.700 outcome is a

00:45:22.760 draw with

00:45:23.720 forever fighting

00:45:25.180 in some of

00:45:26.780 those recently

00:45:27.700 captured areas.

00:45:29.120 That's what I'm

00:45:29.980 guessing.

00:45:30.260 So, there's a

00:45:35.240 new study that

00:45:35.840 says that

00:45:36.400 vitamin D

00:45:37.460 deficiency was

00:45:38.480 found in 82%

00:45:39.680 of COVID

00:45:40.160 cases, but

00:45:41.920 the general

00:45:42.420 population is

00:45:43.280 only 47%.

00:45:45.320 So, the

00:45:47.260 vitamin D

00:45:48.140 deficiency was

00:45:49.060 twice as

00:45:50.040 profound in

00:45:53.180 the people who

00:45:53.800 got COVID,

00:45:54.760 and probably the

00:45:55.500 outcomes as

00:45:56.080 well.

00:45:56.260 now, I

00:45:58.380 would like to

00:45:59.140 do a

00:46:00.060 competition.

00:46:01.860 And I did

00:46:02.860 a little

00:46:03.140 Googling and

00:46:04.080 I couldn't

00:46:04.540 determine.

00:46:05.700 I feel like I

00:46:07.240 am the first

00:46:07.900 person in the

00:46:08.540 world to say

00:46:10.260 in public,

00:46:11.440 I'm probably

00:46:12.000 not, so this

00:46:13.160 is where you

00:46:13.540 get to debunk

00:46:14.200 me.

00:46:14.860 So, if you

00:46:15.240 like to

00:46:15.520 embarrass me,

00:46:16.100 this is your

00:46:16.560 opportunity.

00:46:17.460 I believe I'm

00:46:18.320 the first person

00:46:19.000 in the world

00:46:19.460 who said that

00:46:20.860 the country

00:46:21.640 differences and

00:46:23.620 the demographic

00:46:25.040 differences, like

00:46:25.940 black people

00:46:26.540 having worse

00:46:27.440 time with

00:46:28.180 COVID, that

00:46:29.420 that was a

00:46:29.960 vitamin D

00:46:30.460 pattern.

00:46:32.480 Now, hold

00:46:33.220 on, hold

00:46:33.580 on, let me

00:46:34.100 be specific.

00:46:35.240 I'm not, I'm

00:46:36.500 not the first

00:46:37.060 person to say

00:46:37.840 vitamin D was

00:46:39.500 important to

00:46:40.080 outcomes.

00:46:41.780 Hear that

00:46:42.580 clearly.

00:46:43.240 I'm definitely

00:46:43.980 not the first

00:46:45.000 person, or

00:46:45.960 even close, to

00:46:47.560 say that

00:46:47.920 vitamin D

00:46:48.520 would help

00:46:49.620 you recover.

00:46:50.360 Would you

00:46:50.680 agree?

00:46:52.240 That everybody

00:46:53.200 said that, like

00:46:54.860 doctors said

00:46:55.840 it, lay

00:46:56.700 people said

00:46:57.260 it, early

00:46:58.760 on, like

00:46:59.780 right away

00:47:00.480 everybody said

00:47:01.040 more vitamin

00:47:01.600 D.

00:47:01.900 So, that

00:47:02.160 part I'm

00:47:02.500 not claiming

00:47:03.880 anything.

00:47:04.740 I was just

00:47:05.280 one of a

00:47:05.800 million people

00:47:06.300 who said

00:47:06.560 the obvious.

00:47:07.540 Hey, vitamin

00:47:08.040 D is good

00:47:08.560 for you.

00:47:09.040 So, I'm

00:47:09.860 not taking

00:47:11.000 any credit

00:47:11.380 for that.

00:47:12.060 I'm being

00:47:12.520 very specific.

00:47:14.620 I believe I'm

00:47:15.440 the first person

00:47:16.220 who said it's

00:47:17.160 the reason that

00:47:18.020 you're getting

00:47:18.540 different outcomes

00:47:19.820 in different

00:47:20.360 countries, and

00:47:21.880 different outcomes

00:47:22.640 across black

00:47:25.020 versus white,

00:47:26.020 et cetera.

00:47:27.560 I believe I'm

00:47:28.420 the first.

00:47:29.900 And here's

00:47:30.420 why.

00:47:31.200 Because when

00:47:32.220 it occurred to

00:47:33.260 me, I'd

00:47:33.780 never heard it.

00:47:35.060 So, the only

00:47:35.620 thing I can

00:47:36.040 know for sure

00:47:36.560 is that when

00:47:37.060 it occurred to

00:47:37.660 me, I hadn't

00:47:38.180 heard it yet.

00:47:39.180 But it might

00:47:39.600 be out there.

00:47:40.320 So, somebody

00:47:41.060 has a source.

00:47:42.800 Because once I

00:47:43.600 found out that

00:47:44.340 Sweden routinely

00:47:46.760 gives people

00:47:48.360 vitamin D

00:47:49.000 supplements and

00:47:49.760 cod oil or

00:47:50.540 something, I

00:47:51.120 don't know.

00:47:51.280 Once I

00:47:52.100 realized that

00:47:52.600 the reason

00:47:53.480 that Sweden

00:47:54.020 was an

00:47:54.500 exception, is

00:47:55.660 that they

00:47:55.900 had a lot

00:47:56.220 of vitamin

00:47:56.600 D.

00:47:58.560 And then, have

00:47:59.700 you ever

00:47:59.920 figured out

00:48:00.400 why Africa 0.96

00:48:01.960 never had a

00:48:04.060 problem?

00:48:05.480 Is that

00:48:05.860 wild?

00:48:07.060 That Africa 1.00

00:48:07.640 basically escaped

00:48:09.040 the pandemic

00:48:09.620 without doing

00:48:11.040 much of

00:48:12.340 anything?

00:48:13.580 Do you

00:48:14.180 know what

00:48:14.400 the vitamin

00:48:15.280 D rate is

00:48:16.180 in Africa?

00:48:16.760 really good

00:48:18.940 because they

00:48:20.320 spend a lot

00:48:20.740 of time

00:48:20.960 outside in

00:48:21.360 the sun.

00:48:22.320 It's really

00:48:22.880 good.

00:48:23.540 So, even

00:48:23.820 though they're

00:48:24.240 mostly black,

00:48:25.820 so they have

00:48:26.440 tougher time

00:48:27.060 absorbing, on

00:48:28.560 average, they

00:48:29.060 spend so much

00:48:29.600 time outdoors

00:48:30.140 that they have

00:48:31.040 good vitamin

00:48:31.500 D.

00:48:32.060 Now, Africa 0.93

00:48:32.540 is also young

00:48:33.440 and thin.

00:48:36.120 Some people

00:48:36.860 said, oh, they

00:48:37.560 have lots of

00:48:38.040 ivermectin, but

00:48:38.840 that's probably,

00:48:40.500 it can't be more

00:48:41.320 than 10% of the

00:48:42.160 population.

00:48:43.600 Yeah, ivermectin,

00:48:44.780 probably less than

00:48:45.700 10%.

00:48:46.300 I would imagine

00:48:48.240 that most people

00:48:49.080 in Africa are on 0.69

00:48:50.060 any kind of

00:48:50.720 pharmaceutical drug

00:48:51.620 at all.

00:48:52.980 Yeah, and maybe

00:48:54.140 10% for

00:48:54.840 hydroxychloroquine

00:48:56.620 and stuff.

00:48:57.700 But those things

00:48:59.480 are definitely

00:49:00.180 factors, or

00:49:01.420 could be, but

00:49:02.920 the one that

00:49:04.020 just jumped

00:49:04.600 out was that

00:49:06.160 every group

00:49:06.940 that had low

00:49:07.420 vitamin D

00:49:08.160 were the ones

00:49:09.380 everybody says

00:49:09.960 was getting

00:49:10.420 hit the hardest.

00:49:12.600 So, I put

00:49:13.920 that out

00:49:14.300 there that

00:49:14.880 nobody made

00:49:15.960 the country

00:49:16.740 connection before

00:49:18.620 I did.

00:49:20.260 Anybody want

00:49:21.140 to fact check

00:49:21.620 that?

00:49:23.280 Find somebody

00:49:24.600 who said in

00:49:25.340 public, anybody

00:49:26.860 who had a

00:49:27.380 YouTube or a

00:49:28.440 tweet or

00:49:28.840 something, that

00:49:29.920 the country

00:49:30.520 difference, not

00:49:31.620 and I know

00:49:33.180 you're just

00:49:33.520 going to send

00:49:33.940 me people who

00:49:35.100 said vitamin

00:49:35.660 D is good.

00:49:36.940 Do not send 0.69

00:49:37.880 me anything

00:49:39.660 that just said

00:49:40.460 I said vitamin

00:49:41.460 D is good.

00:49:43.080 Stipulate it.

00:49:43.840 I get that.

00:49:44.800 We all agree

00:49:45.660 with that.

00:49:46.300 Just the country

00:49:47.000 difference.

00:49:47.540 I think I was

00:49:48.000 first.

00:49:49.640 I think I was

00:49:50.440 first in the

00:49:51.680 world, actually.

00:49:55.120 But could be

00:49:56.200 wrong.

00:49:57.520 All right.

00:50:00.160 Here's, I used

00:50:01.840 to work in big

00:50:02.560 corporations and

00:50:03.520 if you've worked

00:50:04.040 in a big

00:50:04.340 corporation you

00:50:05.000 know there's a

00:50:05.500 process that they

00:50:06.920 like to do.

00:50:07.720 In a big company

00:50:08.360 if something

00:50:08.920 doesn't work, you

00:50:09.980 make a big

00:50:10.480 mistake, a bad

00:50:11.480 product or

00:50:12.040 whatever, your

00:50:13.580 project fails, they 0.54

00:50:15.540 like to do a

00:50:16.160 post-mortem to

00:50:17.660 find out what

00:50:18.200 they learned.

00:50:19.560 Right?

00:50:20.020 So I would like

00:50:20.960 to find out how

00:50:23.080 so many of you

00:50:24.660 got the right

00:50:26.040 answer about the

00:50:26.820 vaccinations, whereas

00:50:29.000 I didn't.

00:50:30.340 So I'm going to

00:50:31.020 try to figure out,

00:50:32.160 and maybe you can

00:50:32.820 help me, figure

00:50:34.280 out what heuristics,

00:50:36.500 what rules of

00:50:37.160 thumbs, what sort

00:50:38.940 of common

00:50:39.520 sense, but also

00:50:41.020 data, did you

00:50:42.480 look at.

00:50:43.280 And one of the

00:50:43.800 things that people

00:50:44.340 most complained to

00:50:45.660 me when I said

00:50:46.640 that I was giving

00:50:48.720 the win to the

00:50:49.580 unvaxxed people,

00:50:51.640 so I gave them

00:50:52.620 the win because

00:50:53.960 they definitely got

00:50:54.640 to the right place

00:50:55.520 and I'd like to

00:50:56.880 learn how they

00:50:57.720 did that because I

00:50:58.580 got to the wrong

00:50:59.200 place.

00:51:00.100 Because now I

00:51:00.800 have a vaccination

00:51:01.520 in me but I'm not

00:51:02.440 worried about COVID,

00:51:03.780 so now I just have

00:51:04.500 to worry about the

00:51:05.080 vaccination, so I

00:51:07.560 lost, right?

00:51:09.680 So having said

00:51:11.480 that and being

00:51:12.400 very clear that

00:51:13.360 the winners are the

00:51:14.160 people who use

00:51:15.900 some different

00:51:16.420 system to analyze

00:51:17.680 stuff, I wanted to

00:51:18.920 find out I did.

00:51:19.880 Now I made the

00:51:20.740 mistake of saying

00:51:21.500 all the data is

00:51:22.440 unreliable, so I

00:51:24.460 didn't believe the

00:51:25.000 data from the

00:51:25.700 official sources,

00:51:27.040 but I also didn't

00:51:28.180 believe the data

00:51:28.860 from anybody who

00:51:29.900 was disagreeing

00:51:30.660 with the official

00:51:31.460 sources, and so

00:51:33.560 to me it was a

00:51:34.520 data-free

00:51:35.120 environment, but

00:51:37.220 it was a data-free

00:51:38.360 environment for many

00:51:39.340 of you, but a lot

00:51:40.020 of people said, no

00:51:41.380 Scott, you're wrong,

00:51:42.800 there was a lot of

00:51:44.260 good data, and I've

00:51:46.240 been sending it, a

00:51:47.100 number of people

00:51:47.620 said they've been

00:51:48.200 sending it to me and

00:51:49.020 I've been ignoring

00:51:49.700 it, so let's fix

00:51:51.300 that, right?

00:51:54.300 Wouldn't you say

00:51:55.040 that was a big

00:51:55.620 mistake on my part,

00:51:57.460 that there was in

00:51:58.360 fact good data, it

00:52:00.700 was presented to me,

00:52:01.960 I didn't even have

00:52:02.500 to go look for it,

00:52:03.320 and then I

00:52:05.320 discounted it, and

00:52:07.800 then I made the

00:52:08.300 wrong decision,

00:52:09.360 because I

00:52:09.940 discounted it.

00:52:10.760 Would you agree

00:52:11.300 that's an accurate

00:52:12.100 statement?

00:52:13.020 So we're going to

00:52:13.660 try to correct

00:52:14.440 whatever the hell

00:52:16.040 is wrong with me,

00:52:17.580 with your help, and

00:52:20.040 there will be a

00:52:20.500 little whiteboard

00:52:21.020 here.

00:52:21.580 So I asked people

00:52:22.320 how they did it,

00:52:24.480 on Twitter this

00:52:25.440 morning, like how

00:52:26.060 did you do it?

00:52:27.200 Like how did you

00:52:27.820 know what was the

00:52:28.480 good data, and what

00:52:29.520 was the bad data?

00:52:30.080 I'll give you

00:52:30.560 some answers, and

00:52:32.840 then you can add

00:52:33.660 some answers if

00:52:34.800 anything is left

00:52:35.580 out.

00:52:36.120 So here are all

00:52:36.720 my problems, the

00:52:37.580 things I didn't do

00:52:38.260 right.

00:52:40.620 See, James Popp,

00:52:41.680 these are people on

00:52:42.520 Twitter who responded,

00:52:44.560 said, for me it was

00:52:45.560 just pragmatic.

00:52:47.100 How could something so

00:52:48.200 new, talking about the

00:52:49.120 vaccination, how could

00:52:50.340 something so new be

00:52:51.340 remotely ready for

00:52:52.300 human use in such a

00:52:53.420 good time, short

00:52:54.520 time?

00:52:56.260 That's a good

00:52:56.920 starting place,

00:52:57.600 sense, isn't it?

00:52:59.020 Would you agree

00:52:59.920 that that's a good,

00:53:02.080 solid, common

00:53:03.840 sense, no dispute

00:53:06.640 about the facts,

00:53:07.880 there's nobody who's

00:53:08.860 going to question

00:53:09.400 that the vaccination

00:53:11.660 was rushed relative

00:53:14.640 to what we would all

00:53:15.720 expect or like?

00:53:17.340 Right?

00:53:17.920 Good point.

00:53:19.200 And so I like that

00:53:21.020 point, so I responded,

00:53:22.560 I have a lot of

00:53:23.260 respect, I tweeted

00:53:24.380 it back, I have a lot

00:53:26.040 of respect for the

00:53:26.680 people who are

00:53:27.240 smart enough to

00:53:28.600 avoid a hastily

00:53:29.700 prepared vaccination.

00:53:32.200 Is that fair?

00:53:33.460 I do have a lot of

00:53:34.440 respect for people

00:53:35.200 who were smart

00:53:36.640 enough to avoid a

00:53:37.420 hastily prepared

00:53:38.180 vaccination in favor

00:53:40.460 of a relatively,

00:53:41.920 the relative safety

00:53:42.940 of an engineered

00:53:44.280 bioweapon that

00:53:45.100 escaped from the lab.

00:53:46.780 So the people who

00:53:47.840 were smart enough

00:53:48.540 not to take the

00:53:49.440 hastily prepared

00:53:50.240 vaccination and

00:53:51.900 rather, you know,

00:53:52.960 go to the relative

00:53:53.880 safety of an

00:53:55.940 unknown bioengineered

00:53:57.720 weapon made the

00:54:00.340 right call.

00:54:01.780 And so I'm trying

00:54:02.520 to learn from

00:54:03.020 them.

00:54:04.360 All right, I put

00:54:05.280 too much weight on

00:54:06.800 an unknown bioengineered

00:54:08.680 virus that looked

00:54:10.480 like it might have

00:54:11.060 been a weapon of

00:54:11.640 mass destruction

00:54:12.400 with God knows

00:54:14.000 what kind of

00:54:14.520 future impact.

00:54:16.280 But I put a little

00:54:17.680 too much emphasis

00:54:18.600 on that, whereas I

00:54:20.240 should have been

00:54:20.740 focusing more on the

00:54:22.220 fact that the, and I

00:54:23.980 knew this, I knew the

00:54:24.740 vaccination was not

00:54:25.680 tested as much as

00:54:26.700 others.

00:54:28.220 All right, so then

00:54:30.080 there were people who

00:54:30.720 sent me good data, and

00:54:31.940 I kept saying, but how

00:54:34.140 did I know it was

00:54:34.880 good?

00:54:36.280 You see the problem?

00:54:37.680 Because people were

00:54:38.300 saying, I have the good

00:54:39.400 data and I sent it to

00:54:40.440 you, and I saw it.

00:54:42.260 In many cases, I saw it.

00:54:44.060 But how was I supposed

00:54:45.240 to determine that that

00:54:47.400 was the good data?

00:54:49.020 And so I asked people,

00:54:50.060 how did you know?

00:54:51.380 Because I couldn't tell.

00:54:52.220 To me, it all looked

00:54:53.240 sketchy.

00:54:54.500 Like, it all looked

00:54:55.400 bad.

00:54:55.960 I didn't see any good

00:54:56.840 data, nothing that I

00:54:58.080 trusted.

00:54:58.900 But other people did.

00:55:00.260 And they say they

00:55:01.160 could sort out the good

00:55:02.020 data from the bad, so I

00:55:03.020 was asking how they did

00:55:03.840 that.

00:55:05.220 And here's some more

00:55:07.480 answers on that.

00:55:11.560 Here's how some people

00:55:12.520 did it.

00:55:15.400 Some people said you

00:55:16.380 should trust the people

00:55:17.500 who were banned.

00:55:18.720 that that's like a flag

00:55:21.300 of credibility.

00:55:22.940 That the people who

00:55:23.920 were banned were more

00:55:26.460 credible than the people

00:55:27.520 who were not banned.

00:55:28.920 And, you know, I'm not

00:55:30.820 trying to live in the

00:55:31.580 past.

00:55:32.620 I'm trying to prepare for

00:55:34.160 the next, you know, the

00:55:35.760 next situation.

00:55:37.640 So I wondered if that's

00:55:39.980 a standard we could

00:55:40.860 always use.

00:55:43.000 Was that a standard that

00:55:44.200 only worked for that one

00:55:45.180 pandemic?

00:55:46.440 Or would it be true for

00:55:47.460 the next one?

00:55:48.320 And I'm not aware of all

00:55:50.120 the people who got

00:55:50.820 banned, but is the

00:55:52.520 argument that everybody

00:55:53.460 who got banned had the

00:55:54.440 right answer?

00:55:56.420 Was there anybody who

00:55:57.320 got banned who had the

00:55:58.680 wrong answer?

00:56:00.280 Or was it only, was

00:56:02.000 banning like a really

00:56:03.040 good signal for the

00:56:04.100 right person?

00:56:07.220 What do you say?

00:56:08.200 Well, if you had to put

00:56:09.600 a percentage on it, is,

00:56:12.560 and let's say for the

00:56:13.260 next situation, forget

00:56:14.420 about the pandemic, for

00:56:15.820 the next situation,

00:56:17.700 whatever that is, should

00:56:19.840 I, should I say if

00:56:21.580 they're, if you're banned,

00:56:22.640 you're like 80% likely to

00:56:24.040 be right?

00:56:25.440 And the people who are

00:56:26.840 saying things that don't

00:56:28.420 get them banned are most

00:56:31.100 likely to be wrong or

00:56:32.240 lying?

00:56:33.980 About 80%?

00:56:35.680 What would you say?

00:56:36.620 Well, 25% doesn't help

00:56:38.140 me.

00:56:38.600 Because if they're only

00:56:39.520 25% likely, why are you

00:56:42.440 believing them?

00:56:42.960 I mean, it's got to be

00:56:44.400 over, it's got like 80,

00:56:45.720 90, right?

00:56:46.620 All right, so we're

00:56:47.060 getting some 80s and

00:56:47.900 some 90s.

00:56:48.640 All right, good.

00:56:49.840 So, so I'm seeing some

00:56:52.320 agreement that you can

00:56:54.240 see what data has been

00:56:56.860 banned and also what

00:56:57.880 people.

00:56:59.060 So that falls for people

00:57:00.360 as well, right?

00:57:01.600 The people who were

00:57:02.800 banned were very much

00:57:05.800 most likely to be right,

00:57:07.880 and you could tell

00:57:09.200 because they were banned.

00:57:10.080 Is that right?

00:57:12.960 You could tell they're

00:57:13.880 the good ones because

00:57:14.520 they're banned?

00:57:15.600 All right, okay.

00:57:16.940 So I'll look more to

00:57:18.700 banned people next time

00:57:20.060 as opposed to people

00:57:21.620 who say things that

00:57:23.500 don't get them banned.

00:57:26.500 And then other people

00:57:28.000 said they're just some

00:57:28.760 people you can trust

00:57:29.680 more.

00:57:31.080 It's more about trusting

00:57:32.240 the right people.

00:57:34.200 So, you know, I

00:57:35.800 acknowledge my weakness

00:57:36.820 that I can't tell the

00:57:37.720 difference between good

00:57:38.720 data and bad because it

00:57:39.720 all looks bad to me.

00:57:41.260 So if I can't tell what

00:57:43.260 data is good, then I

00:57:45.540 could rely on what

00:57:47.400 people are good, right?

00:57:49.680 Because the reliable

00:57:50.780 people are most likely

00:57:53.080 to have the reliable

00:57:53.880 data.

00:57:55.000 That makes sense.

00:57:56.140 So the people who

00:57:57.440 were, you know, banned

00:57:58.600 and ostracized, the

00:58:00.380 Alex Berenson's and

00:58:01.880 Brett Weinstein and

00:58:05.000 let's see, Fat

00:58:07.060 Emperor and Bori

00:58:08.540 Quagato and some

00:58:09.680 other people.

00:58:12.080 So those are the ones

00:58:13.140 we trusted.

00:58:14.420 So rather than trusting

00:58:15.420 the medical professionals,

00:58:17.500 a lot of people said,

00:58:19.300 I'm going to trust a

00:58:20.480 journalist.

00:58:21.700 Now, does that always

00:58:22.720 work?

00:58:24.080 Or did it only just work

00:58:25.120 on this pandemic?

00:58:26.480 So the people who trust

00:58:27.720 a journalist, Berenson,

00:58:30.420 over, let's say, the

00:58:32.100 bulk of the medical

00:58:33.820 community, and we know

00:58:34.980 Berenson got the right

00:58:35.860 answer.

00:58:36.620 So obviously he knows

00:58:37.620 something that they

00:58:38.200 didn't.

00:58:38.740 But here's the question.

00:58:41.020 Will the journalist who

00:58:42.340 disagrees with the

00:58:43.300 medical community

00:58:44.280 generally be right, or

00:58:46.200 only if they're also

00:58:47.180 banned?

00:58:49.500 Are they only right if

00:58:50.660 they're banned?

00:58:52.720 So what if it's a

00:58:54.380 journalist who disagrees

00:58:56.180 with the mainstream, but

00:58:58.600 is not banned?

00:58:59.560 Are they still more

00:59:02.120 likely to be right?

00:59:04.000 And what if there are

00:59:04.940 two journalists, and

00:59:06.780 one says the mainstream

00:59:07.840 is wrong, and one says

00:59:09.720 it right?

00:59:10.180 Because two journalists

00:59:10.940 would be roughly equal in

00:59:12.480 credibility, right?

00:59:14.500 So how would you sort

00:59:15.700 that out?

00:59:16.760 Because you have one

00:59:17.820 journalist who's on one

00:59:19.520 side, but another

00:59:20.420 journalist who's on

00:59:21.360 another.

00:59:22.440 And since journalists are

00:59:24.520 better than medical

00:59:25.480 professionals at medical

00:59:26.880 stuff, so we can ignore

00:59:29.020 the medical people.

00:59:30.200 But which of the

00:59:31.460 journalists would I

00:59:32.240 pick?

00:59:33.380 The banned one, right?

00:59:35.740 The one, so somebody

00:59:37.640 like a Dr. Drew, who

00:59:40.000 did not get banned, I

00:59:41.700 should sort of minimize

00:59:42.440 his influence and look

00:59:44.620 for the people who are

00:59:45.260 the most banned to get

00:59:48.220 my credibility.

00:59:50.800 Does that make sense?

00:59:52.740 I'm looking for your

00:59:53.700 guidance.

00:59:54.620 All right.

00:59:55.080 Here's some other things

00:59:56.100 that people said.

00:59:59.020 Let's see.

01:00:03.800 Some people said that the

01:00:05.800 data that they were

01:00:06.700 hiding tells you

01:00:07.760 everything you need to

01:00:08.600 know.

01:00:09.600 And I thought, well,

01:00:10.780 that's pretty insightful.

01:00:12.680 Because if the, once you

01:00:15.480 can tell that somebody's

01:00:16.680 hiding some data, or that

01:00:18.800 there's a lack of data, the

01:00:21.120 lack of data tells you more

01:00:22.460 than the actual data.

01:00:24.800 You good with that?

01:00:26.500 Does that make sense?

01:00:27.340 Because the data that you

01:00:28.420 don't have is telling you

01:00:31.420 more than the data you

01:00:32.220 have, right?

01:00:34.320 I mean, that's a pretty big

01:00:35.180 signal, if they're going to

01:00:36.600 hide that data.

01:00:37.580 So I'm wondering, in

01:00:38.400 general, again, because I'm

01:00:40.860 not living in the past,

01:00:42.740 trying to prepare for the

01:00:43.640 next one.

01:00:44.560 In general, should I use the

01:00:46.100 lack of data to make my

01:00:48.260 decisions versus the data?

01:00:52.200 Should I go with the

01:00:53.620 non-information to base my

01:00:55.500 decisions on?

01:00:59.880 All right.

01:01:02.480 And then, let's see.

01:01:04.960 Then somebody was

01:01:06.380 ostracizing me, or

01:01:07.800 criticized me, not

01:01:09.020 ostracizing, saying that

01:01:11.520 I gave you two pretty clear

01:01:13.640 examples of how to do it.

01:01:15.480 One, you want well-credentialed,

01:01:17.380 peer-reviewed people prior to

01:01:20.100 COVID.

01:01:20.360 So, do you agree with that?

01:01:24.160 You should believe the people

01:01:25.200 who are well-credentialed and

01:01:26.920 peer-reviewed, even before

01:01:28.700 COVID.

01:01:30.280 That makes sense, doesn't it?

01:01:32.400 Believe the people, because

01:01:34.160 like Dr. McCullough, Dr.

01:01:36.580 Malone, peer-reviewed, very

01:01:39.840 credible, so you should believe

01:01:40.900 them.

01:01:42.180 But what happens if the people

01:01:44.680 on the other side are also

01:01:45.940 credentialed and peer-reviewed?

01:01:47.480 Do I, so if they're all

01:01:51.680 credentialed and peer-reviewed,

01:01:53.080 but they have different

01:01:53.620 opinions, should I take the

01:01:55.660 ones that are in the extreme

01:01:56.980 minority?

01:01:59.100 Because the minority is 0.99

01:02:00.840 usually right on medical

01:02:02.260 stuff.

01:02:03.560 Or should I use that as the

01:02:06.680 base, the base, and just say,

01:02:10.040 all right, but which one's

01:02:10.920 more banned?

01:02:12.500 So if they have equal

01:02:13.640 credentials, I should favor the

01:02:16.040 one that's banned, right?

01:02:17.780 Next time.

01:02:20.580 All right.

01:02:21.680 Also, the people who risked

01:02:23.640 livelihood, basically they put

01:02:26.500 their careers on the line.

01:02:28.460 So I should trust the people who

01:02:30.220 knew they were going to lose

01:02:31.940 money in this, right?

01:02:33.620 Because they don't have a

01:02:34.600 financial incentive.

01:02:37.380 So that would be like Dr.

01:02:38.780 McCullough, Dr.

01:02:39.760 Malone, because they risked 1.00

01:02:41.780 their careers, didn't they?

01:02:44.360 So that does make you more

01:02:46.500 credible if you're willing to

01:02:47.840 put some skin in the game.

01:02:50.840 So Dr.

01:02:51.340 McCullough, for example,

01:02:52.420 definitely put some risk on his

01:02:54.460 medical future.

01:02:57.480 We can only hope that he makes

01:02:58.820 his money back on his book.

01:03:00.840 Because he did do a book,

01:03:02.740 probably does some speaking tours.

01:03:04.060 So Dr.

01:03:05.980 Malone has a book.

01:03:08.080 And Brett Weinstein has a podcast.

01:03:10.780 I think it's monetized.

01:03:12.260 But you don't want to look at any of

01:03:13.900 those people because they put their

01:03:16.260 entire financial futures on the line.

01:03:19.780 And all they got out of it was

01:03:22.320 best-selling books and top-rated

01:03:24.620 podcasts that are monetized.

01:03:27.100 So that's a group you want to

01:03:29.560 believe in because they're not

01:03:30.400 influenced by money in any way.

01:03:33.420 So that was a good idea.

01:03:38.020 Then also...

01:03:40.460 All right, what else?

01:03:42.940 I had some other...

01:03:43.800 Oh, this is important.

01:03:45.800 You should not...

01:03:46.980 You don't trust any study

01:03:48.640 where the people running the study

01:03:51.080 were funded by, you know,

01:03:54.220 like Big Pharma or somebody

01:03:55.440 who wants to make money from it.

01:03:57.060 You'd agree with that, right?

01:03:58.900 You can't trust any study that

01:04:01.020 somebody's got a money motivation.

01:04:03.840 But here's my issue.

01:04:06.280 And I know you can do this

01:04:07.620 because you did it,

01:04:08.480 but I did it wrong,

01:04:09.640 so you're going to have to teach

01:04:10.420 me how to do this.

01:04:12.140 There are some studies where

01:04:14.100 you can tell who funded it.

01:04:16.400 And so I would be with you and say,

01:04:18.000 oh, if it was funded by those people,

01:04:20.580 you can't trust it.

01:04:22.780 But what happens if it's a study

01:04:24.600 where you don't know if it was funded?

01:04:26.920 Or here's the tough part.

01:04:29.180 What if, let's say,

01:04:30.260 there's a doctor who's the head

01:04:31.680 person of the study,

01:04:33.060 and that doctor did not get money

01:04:36.260 from any Big Pharma,

01:04:38.340 but the doctor does a lot of speaking

01:04:41.220 engagements for Big Pharma?

01:04:44.720 And let's say somebody who's,

01:04:46.740 you know, close to the decision

01:04:48.060 that we're trying to make.

01:04:49.660 Would you know that?

01:04:51.220 Would you know if a doctor

01:04:52.480 who led a study

01:04:53.500 that was not funded by Big Pharma,

01:04:56.080 but would you know if the doctor

01:04:57.520 individually and privately

01:04:59.820 gave highly paid talks

01:05:04.360 as seminars paid for

01:05:06.680 by the same company

01:05:07.540 that he's doing the research for?

01:05:09.000 Would you know that?

01:05:11.400 I don't think you would.

01:05:12.820 I mean, I wouldn't.

01:05:13.980 So you have to teach me

01:05:14.980 how you know that,

01:05:15.740 because I wouldn't.

01:05:16.740 It's my understanding

01:05:17.740 that everybody's working for money,

01:05:19.580 but apparently some people are not.

01:05:21.760 All right, so I put it all together

01:05:22.820 on a whiteboard

01:05:23.580 so I could try to understand

01:05:25.260 how you made the decision correctly.

01:05:27.300 It looks like this.

01:05:29.620 I was using bad data

01:05:31.240 and other people

01:05:32.880 were using good data

01:05:33.860 and they could tell the difference.

01:05:36.520 So the best data

01:05:37.720 is stuff that's banned

01:05:39.260 and the best experts

01:05:41.820 are the ones who risked it all

01:05:43.720 and were unpaid,

01:05:45.940 unpaid except for

01:05:47.540 the best-selling books

01:05:48.420 and podcasts.

01:05:51.660 And then this was the important part

01:05:53.920 because I got this,

01:05:55.340 because I asked people,

01:05:56.100 okay, if you do all this,

01:05:58.820 how do you know

01:05:59.600 the data is right?

01:06:01.620 Like ultimately,

01:06:02.500 how do you know data is right?

01:06:03.960 And the best answer I got

01:06:05.400 is that somebody

01:06:07.160 compared it

01:06:08.480 to what they already knew

01:06:09.420 and when you compare it

01:06:11.440 to what you already know,

01:06:13.880 you do your own assessment.

01:06:16.720 So you don't just trust the data,

01:06:18.900 I was told.

01:06:20.080 You do your own assessment

01:06:21.280 of whether it looks reasonable.

01:06:22.660 Now,

01:06:24.760 a day ago,

01:06:27.040 I would have said

01:06:27.640 this is confirmation bias

01:06:29.240 and that it just looks like

01:06:31.240 people had confirmation bias

01:06:32.620 and they worked backwards

01:06:33.640 to who the right data was

01:06:35.900 and who the experts are.

01:06:37.420 That was my old model

01:06:38.660 of the world.

01:06:39.900 But since this process

01:06:41.300 got to the right answer,

01:06:43.100 I have to revise that

01:06:45.140 and apologize

01:06:45.660 because I was in wrong...

01:06:51.380 Oh, I'm being told

01:06:53.360 that there's a different doctor

01:06:54.540 who's more credible,

01:06:56.080 somebody called Dr. Lee.

01:06:58.220 Now, I don't know anything

01:06:59.900 about Dr. Lee,

01:07:01.520 but I'm sure he's not writing a book

01:07:03.300 or monetizing his opinion anyway.

01:07:07.180 Just like the other experts,

01:07:09.440 although they did write

01:07:10.680 best-selling books

01:07:11.400 and probably doing

01:07:12.740 speaking engagements

01:07:13.600 and are very, very famous people now,

01:07:15.520 but they didn't have any monetary...

01:07:18.400 No monetary interest,

01:07:19.920 just books and podcasts and stuff,

01:07:22.300 which are probably paying more

01:07:23.760 than their medical stuff.

01:07:27.560 So this used to be

01:07:28.640 confirmation bias,

01:07:29.580 but now I know

01:07:30.060 this is actually just

01:07:30.920 a common sense

01:07:32.500 kind of approach.

01:07:35.440 So then the last step

01:07:37.320 is the part

01:07:37.820 that I was totally wrong about.

01:07:40.520 This is the part

01:07:41.360 where I really screwed up.

01:07:43.600 So once you've got

01:07:46.560 your good data

01:07:47.480 and your good experts,

01:07:49.360 which you can tell

01:07:50.160 because you're comparing it

01:07:51.220 to your own assessment

01:07:52.020 of the data and the experts,

01:07:54.380 so you know that's good

01:07:55.500 because it's all compatible,

01:07:57.400 then you take that

01:07:58.840 because that's just

01:07:59.420 your assessment on one side.

01:08:00.640 That's just the vaccine.

01:08:02.120 And you compare it

01:08:02.860 to the unknown risk

01:08:03.880 of a bioengineered weapon

01:08:05.180 of mass destruction,

01:08:06.060 and it's obvious

01:08:07.640 that this is a bigger risk.

01:08:11.020 So this is as close

01:08:14.340 as I can get

01:08:15.100 to trying to improve my game.

01:08:18.180 And I think what happened

01:08:18.980 was ultimately

01:08:19.700 I got lost in the weeds.

01:08:22.580 I was all in the weeds.

01:08:24.080 I couldn't see the trees

01:08:25.380 for the forest kind of thing.

01:08:26.880 But it was all kind of obvious.

01:08:28.340 If I just go and use

01:08:29.640 the good data

01:08:30.260 with the good experts,

01:08:32.300 and it's easy to tell

01:08:33.360 who the good ones are

01:08:34.260 because they're banned,

01:08:36.600 and then just use

01:08:37.740 my own assessment

01:08:38.500 to decide what was

01:08:39.540 the good data

01:08:40.020 and the good experts,

01:08:40.880 and then compare it

01:08:41.540 to the unknown risk

01:08:43.040 of a bioengineered weapon

01:08:44.200 of mass destruction,

01:08:45.200 and I could have gotten

01:08:46.180 the right answer too

01:08:46.980 during the fog of war.

01:08:50.280 And on top of that,

01:08:52.060 one thing I was also

01:08:53.280 getting wrong

01:08:53.800 was certainty.

01:08:56.080 I kept being on the fence.

01:08:59.240 I got a lot of criticism

01:09:00.420 for that because I was like,

01:09:02.040 I'm on the fence.

01:09:03.040 I don't know which is

01:09:03.840 a bigger risk.

01:09:05.320 I don't know.

01:09:06.460 Is it the vaccine

01:09:08.040 or the virus?

01:09:09.280 I don't know.

01:09:10.100 So I was like

01:09:10.780 all over the place,

01:09:12.760 and I can't apologize

01:09:14.400 enough for that.

01:09:16.200 I'm sorry that I misled you,

01:09:19.620 and I was totally wrong.

01:09:23.380 The unvaccinated 0.94

01:09:24.380 were the winners.

01:09:25.160 They got the right answer

01:09:26.000 from the start,

01:09:26.800 and impressively,

01:09:28.600 they got it with heuristics,

01:09:30.240 which beat the heck

01:09:32.040 out of my poor

01:09:33.240 analytical abilities,

01:09:35.020 and you have my respect

01:09:36.940 for that.

01:09:41.620 I don't understand

01:09:42.780 this comment.

01:09:43.720 My inability to be wrong,

01:09:45.800 how much more can I agree

01:09:47.620 with you?

01:09:48.880 You won't take yes

01:09:49.940 for an answer?

01:09:52.360 Why can't you take yes

01:09:53.680 for an answer?

01:09:54.920 I'm literally telling you

01:09:56.220 you got the right answer,

01:09:57.840 and I'm accepting

01:09:59.440 your analysis.

01:10:02.740 What's the problem?

01:10:07.340 Seriously,

01:10:07.840 what's the problem?

01:10:10.340 No, no, no,

01:10:11.780 I may have misled you.

01:10:13.220 Somebody says,

01:10:14.360 was I certain

01:10:15.120 it was a bioweapon?

01:10:16.180 Now, let me be clear.

01:10:17.320 I didn't know

01:10:18.000 what the virus was.

01:10:19.780 I also didn't know

01:10:20.600 what the so-called

01:10:22.380 vaccination was.

01:10:25.280 I didn't know

01:10:25.940 what either one of them was.

01:10:26.600 So I was a complete unknown.

01:10:28.500 I should have listened to,

01:10:30.060 I should have listened

01:10:31.680 to the good experts

01:10:32.720 who knew from the start

01:10:34.860 what the virus was

01:10:36.000 and what the vaccination was.

01:10:37.460 And I should have known

01:10:38.380 who the good experts were

01:10:39.400 because I should have

01:10:40.080 used my own assessment.

01:10:41.640 And like you say,

01:10:49.780 there were a lot of you

01:10:50.700 who were right

01:10:51.240 from the start,

01:10:52.660 and I certainly wasn't.

01:10:55.100 Would you agree

01:10:55.800 with that statement?

01:10:57.180 There are a lot of you

01:10:58.080 who, through this

01:11:00.440 improved,

01:11:02.960 let's say,

01:11:05.120 sort of a model

01:11:06.680 for understanding

01:11:07.820 the world,

01:11:08.320 all right.

01:11:16.180 And now we want tribunals.

01:11:17.960 Yeah.

01:11:18.240 I think the people

01:11:18.960 who did not use

01:11:20.000 this method

01:11:20.680 probably need jail time.

01:11:24.300 Would you agree?

01:11:25.740 I'm wondering

01:11:26.360 if I should go to jail.

01:11:28.080 Do you know how many people

01:11:28.840 I probably killed

01:11:29.720 with my analyses?

01:11:32.900 I mean, think,

01:11:33.340 I have to live with that

01:11:34.140 for the rest of my life.

01:11:36.000 Those of you who

01:11:37.240 were the smart ones.

01:11:42.740 You know,

01:11:43.220 you don't,

01:11:43.780 you have clean conscience.

01:11:47.240 Now, I used to worry

01:11:48.320 about all the people

01:11:49.300 who were, you know,

01:11:50.220 used this analysis

01:11:51.120 and then died of COVID

01:11:53.480 because they were unvaccinated.

01:11:55.480 But that actually

01:11:57.380 was one of my biggest

01:11:58.640 decision-making criteria.

01:12:02.820 Because I was under

01:12:03.980 the mistaken impression

01:12:05.220 that there was like

01:12:06.940 some COVID pandemic

01:12:08.300 that swept through

01:12:09.180 the country.

01:12:10.200 And recently,

01:12:11.120 I'm learning

01:12:11.960 that nobody died.

01:12:13.960 So, I mean,

01:12:15.220 I thought I was

01:12:16.020 believing the government,

01:12:17.380 the government.

01:12:18.760 Idiot.

01:12:19.860 I don't know

01:12:20.500 how dumb I could be.

01:12:21.660 I'm believing

01:12:21.980 the government

01:12:22.560 that people were

01:12:23.260 dying of COVID.

01:12:24.540 And the government

01:12:25.520 was saying

01:12:25.900 that the unvaccinated

01:12:27.060 were dying

01:12:27.500 at a much higher rate.

01:12:28.500 And now we know

01:12:29.820 that that was

01:12:30.220 all made up

01:12:30.800 because all data

01:12:32.400 is made up.

01:12:33.600 Except for this.

01:12:35.100 If I'd known

01:12:35.880 the good experts

01:12:36.560 or the good data,

01:12:37.320 I wouldn't have

01:12:37.580 made that mistake.

01:12:38.360 That's for sure.

01:12:39.880 All right.

01:12:40.180 So next time,

01:12:40.940 I'm going to try harder

01:12:41.800 to use my own assessment

01:12:44.120 to know what the good data is

01:12:46.720 and who the good experts are.

01:12:48.240 And I won't be making

01:12:49.300 that mistake again

01:12:50.260 of distrusting

01:12:51.740 all of the data.

01:12:53.880 I'm getting there.

01:12:54.660 I'm getting a lot

01:12:59.260 of support

01:12:59.740 on the YouTube platform

01:13:01.600 from people

01:13:02.180 who say,

01:13:02.640 finally,

01:13:03.700 finally you're

01:13:04.680 understanding

01:13:05.160 what's going on.

01:13:11.580 All right.

01:13:13.560 Well,

01:13:14.140 thank you very much.

01:13:15.460 I'm going to say

01:13:15.820 goodbye to YouTube

01:13:16.700 and talk to the

01:13:18.060 people and locals.

01:13:19.920 Whoops,

01:13:20.260 we've got a little

01:13:20.640 problem here.

01:13:21.920 Talk to the people

01:13:22.600 and locals

01:13:23.000 and I'll see you

01:13:23.960 tomorrow.

01:13:24.660 Bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 24, 2023

Episode 1998 Scott Adams： Teach Me How To Recognize The Good COVID Data To Avoid The Same Mistake

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