Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1999 Scott Adams： Documents Everywhere, Obesity Is A Bad Word, More Of Me Eating Crow

00:00:00.000 Buh-buh-buh-buh-buh-buh-buh-buh. 1.00

00:00:02.440 Uh-oh.

00:00:05.100 Oh, shoot.

00:00:08.000 Oh, I don't know what to do now.

00:00:12.880 I found a classified item in my drawer.

00:00:20.220 I need to call the FBI immediately.

00:00:28.640 Hello, FBI? 0.98

00:00:30.600 Yeah, I feel stupid now.

00:00:33.960 I found a classified item.

00:00:36.820 It was in my drawer.

00:00:39.080 I don't know who put it there.

00:00:41.040 Probably my assistant.

00:00:42.700 I assume my assistant.

00:00:44.520 Assistants are terrible with classified information.

00:00:47.240 I didn't even know it was there, really.

00:00:50.080 So I thought I would... 0.75

00:00:52.000 What the hell? 0.98

00:00:56.720 You're busy? 0.99

00:00:57.680 Oh.

00:00:58.080 Well, what's taking so long?

00:01:02.840 Bribing...

00:01:03.600 Taking bribes from oligarchs.

00:01:05.880 Yeah, that can take a lot of time out of your schedule.

00:01:09.360 All right, well, I guess I'll just handle it myself.

00:01:14.320 Okay.

00:01:15.100 All right.

00:01:15.780 And you have a good day, too.

00:01:17.240 Why is my phone yelling at me?

00:01:23.200 Well, if you'd like to take today's classified, top-secret experience up to levels you've never known before, this is how you do it.

00:01:36.220 All you need is a cup or mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or a flask of a vessel of any kind.

00:01:43.520 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:01:45.980 I like coffee.

00:01:47.700 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine here of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:01:52.380 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.

00:01:55.180 Do you see behind me two whiteboards?

00:02:06.300 Is there anything that can be better than coffee with Scott Adams and two whiteboards?

00:02:12.520 Yes.

00:02:13.940 Three or more whiteboards.

00:02:16.180 It's a trick question.

00:02:17.980 All right, there is so much news today, I'm just going to run through the important stories.

00:02:23.420 I'm going to start at the top with the most important stories, and then we'll work down.

00:02:29.260 Toward the end, I will be eating crow for all of my wrongness about the pandemic.

00:02:34.340 Those of you who like to watch me be wrong, you should wait until the end.

00:02:40.400 But the important stories first, and nothing more important than this one,

00:02:44.880 A&W Root Beer has announced that its mascot, Rudy the Great Root Bear,

00:02:53.420 who formerly wore a shirt but no pants.

00:02:58.000 And they announced that their bear might be polarizing, polarizing.

00:03:04.580 It's a bear.

00:03:06.380 Bear might be polarizing if he had no pants.

00:03:10.440 And so now they're going to put pants on their bear.

00:03:13.440 Thank God.

00:03:14.260 You know, I woke up this morning, and I'm like, no, pantsless mascots must be fixed.

00:03:24.740 Now, you know, this made me think.

00:03:27.960 I've seen a lot of videos of bears in the wild.

00:03:32.060 Haven't you?

00:03:33.560 And like sometimes you'll see the grizzlies, and the grizzlies will be standing up,

00:03:38.080 and they're like, how big is a grizzly?

00:03:39.600 It's like eight feet tall, right?

00:03:41.660 When it stands up, it's like, argh, like this.

00:03:45.180 You know what I've never seen?

00:03:49.160 It's a bear's package.

00:03:52.120 You know, the boy bears.

00:03:54.180 Now, because they're standing like this, and they're big old, you know, bears.

00:03:59.460 I feel like if I were in the woods, and one of these grizzly bears attacked me,

00:04:06.960 like I'd have two reactions.

00:04:09.060 You know, when I saw the bear, and the bear went, argh, like this,

00:04:12.660 my first reaction would be, oh, no, I'm going to die.

00:04:18.220 And then my second reaction would be, whoa, you're really packing.

00:04:23.400 Like that's how I imagined it would go.

00:04:25.660 Because I just figured grizzlies, they got game.

00:04:28.600 I don't know, I just assumed that.

00:04:30.800 Another important story, 60 Minutes,

00:04:34.600 and Leslie Stahl was interviewing, I guess, a woman who's going to be in charge 0.77

00:04:39.660 of the new government's dietary guidelines,

00:04:43.300 who says that obesity is mostly genetic.

00:04:47.120 Genetic.

00:04:48.000 And that you won't lose weight just by eating less and exercising.

00:04:51.180 So, you know, at first I thought, well, that seems contrary to all common sense and all science.

00:04:59.900 But then I thought, oh, wait a minute, Scott, back up.

00:05:04.160 It's coming from the government.

00:05:06.760 So now I believe it.

00:05:08.080 All right, next story, which is also related.

00:05:15.560 I saw a tweet saying that obesity is like the new N-word for the people who are large.

00:05:24.980 Now I remind you that we do not do fat shaming.

00:05:27.540 Don't do fat shaming.

00:05:30.520 Because, as I often say, if I like food as much as other people, I might weigh more.

00:05:36.420 That's my entire analysis.

00:05:38.660 So therefore, I don't fat shame because I would be one if I liked food more than I do.

00:05:46.480 I just don't, I'm just not crazy about food.

00:05:49.620 You know, I don't like to sleep so much.

00:05:51.220 Not big on food.

00:05:52.660 I do them because I have to.

00:05:54.040 But I saw a tweet from Dr. Anita B. Eden, Ph.D., who says obesity is the N-word.

00:06:09.260 And her alleged profile says that she's a fat-affirming dietician with a Ph.D. in body-positive medicine.

00:06:20.480 And she's the author of Snacks Over Scales and Health at Every Happy Meal. 0.98

00:06:28.960 She's a feminist ally. 1.00

00:06:31.280 And her pronouns are she and her.

00:06:33.900 Now, here's the funny part.

00:06:37.140 I literally couldn't tell if it was a parody for a few minutes.

00:06:42.680 Like, I had to spend some time looking at it.

00:06:44.720 I thought, Anita B. Eden.

00:06:48.580 I need to be eaten.

00:06:51.560 Okay.

00:06:52.360 Probably not real.

00:06:55.140 But the only takeaway from this is that the difference between complete parody and reality is so thin now.

00:07:04.820 It's so thin that you can really get away with parody like crazy.

00:07:08.600 Because people can't tell.

00:07:09.500 They genuinely can't tell when you're kidding.

00:07:13.360 So, I mean, the fact that people can't tell when you're kidding, I mean, that opens a big opportunity for somebody like me.

00:07:22.680 But, you know, I would never take care, take advantage of that.

00:07:26.620 Did you know that China has more than the TikTok app?

00:07:30.140 Oh, they have way more than that.

00:07:31.560 They have an app called WeChat.

00:07:35.260 Now, it's mostly used in China, I think.

00:07:37.700 But there are 19 million users of WeChat in the United States.

00:07:41.720 I think mostly Chinese Americans or people with a more direct connection to China.

00:07:48.160 But it does all kinds of things like payments and, you know, it's just like a universal app kind of thing.

00:07:53.240 But apparently there are 19 million American users and China can monitor all their data and they basically know everything about them.

00:08:04.860 That's not too scary, is it?

00:08:07.600 But speaking of apps from China, I saw in the Wall Street Journal that the Biden administration is considering.

00:08:16.020 So, watch out.

00:08:18.280 Watch out, everybody.

00:08:19.320 They're considering.

00:08:19.960 And when they're considering, that's something.

00:08:25.940 That's something.

00:08:26.940 So, they're considering doing something about data safety with TikTok.

00:08:33.040 What?

00:08:35.740 So, the Wall Street Journal apparently, along with the Biden administration, are unaware that the risk with TikTok has very little to do with the data.

00:08:46.560 I mean, that's important.

00:08:47.920 You know, they should control the data.

00:08:50.760 But they're missing the whole story.

00:08:54.100 That TikTok and WeChat are literally, well, mostly TikTok, is literally, literally, literally.

00:09:02.660 Right?

00:09:02.960 You're going to think this is not really the right use of the word literally.

00:09:06.200 But no.

00:09:07.560 Literally.

00:09:08.380 Used actually as literally should be used.

00:09:12.680 TikTok is a user interface for the Chinese government to control American minds. 0.91

00:09:16.840 Literally.

00:09:19.680 It's literally an interface.

00:09:22.320 It literally controls American minds.

00:09:25.580 It's not a metaphor.

00:09:27.380 It's not an analogy.

00:09:29.200 It's not a reminds me of.

00:09:31.400 It's literally an interface to control American minds.

00:09:36.340 No problem, the Biden administration.

00:09:40.080 But at least they're considering.

00:09:42.080 They're giving a strong consideration, boy.

00:09:44.980 They're considering it so hard. 0.88

00:09:47.300 Smoke is coming out of their brains.

00:09:49.900 They're considering so hard dealing with something that isn't the issue.

00:09:54.180 The data.

00:09:55.360 Also important.

00:09:56.120 But not nearly in the top 1% with the user interface for controlling brains.

00:10:04.860 No problem.

00:10:05.900 Just let that issue go.

00:10:10.340 Amazon has announced its Prime members are going to have some kind of amazing deal on generics.

00:10:16.000 So for $5 a month for generics.

00:10:20.560 So it's going to be like super cheap generics through Amazon.

00:10:24.020 And it's most of the big stuff.

00:10:26.280 And I got all excited about this.

00:10:29.420 I thought, wow, this could be good.

00:10:31.460 It's not active in my state, California or Texas.

00:10:37.240 Why would something not be legal in California and Texas?

00:10:41.980 What do those two even have in common that they would have the same opinion on this?

00:10:47.460 I'm missing the reason why.

00:10:49.840 Just money?

00:10:50.820 But why would it be different for a red and a blue state?

00:10:56.140 I don't even know.

00:10:56.720 Just population?

00:10:58.920 I don't know.

00:10:59.440 I don't understand this story.

00:11:02.160 So maybe somebody could work that out.

00:11:04.060 But so if you're on Medicare or Medicaid, you can't use it.

00:11:11.020 And if you're in California or Texas, you can't use it.

00:11:13.580 Does any of that make sense to you?

00:11:16.080 No.

00:11:17.520 This would be a good case of our government.

00:11:20.200 It looks like they're not really serving our interests in this case.

00:11:22.960 But I'm available to hear a better argument.

00:11:26.200 Maybe I'm missing something.

00:11:27.120 But to me, it just looks like the government's just getting in the way.

00:11:31.460 Of a good thing.

00:11:33.380 Am I wrong?

00:11:40.180 No, it wasn't accidental to answer your question on locals.

00:11:43.460 But sometimes I don't give reasons.

00:11:46.760 Sometimes it's just personal for blocking.

00:11:51.200 All right.

00:11:51.600 So here's my take on that.

00:11:53.720 Just the day before I heard this, I saw a tweet by, I believe it was Doc Anarchy on Twitter,

00:12:00.060 warning against taking generic drugs.

00:12:02.520 Now, the argument is that the generics have less quality control.

00:12:10.240 Would you agree?

00:12:12.060 I don't know if that's the case often or usually or always.

00:12:16.680 I've heard this.

00:12:18.100 It's something I've heard, but I don't know how I would validate it.

00:12:22.880 And I think it depends, right?

00:12:24.180 But would you know in advance which meds it depended?

00:12:30.260 Yeah.

00:12:30.680 I don't know.

00:12:32.500 I would say that I suppose if you take the generics first and you don't get a good result,

00:12:39.520 maybe try the name brand.

00:12:41.440 Is that the way to play it?

00:12:43.160 You know, depending if it's life and death.

00:12:44.700 I suppose if it's life and death, I might take the name brand first.

00:12:47.460 But let's say it's something like blood pressure.

00:12:50.700 In the short run, it's not really life and death.

00:12:53.520 So if in the short run it didn't work, maybe you try the other thing.

00:12:59.260 All right.

00:13:02.880 Matt Gaetz continues to say the most interesting things and do the most interesting things in Congress.

00:13:09.280 Here's a little, I'm just going to read to you several things that Matt Gaetz has said recently.

00:13:16.380 All right.

00:13:16.580 So not in the same day, but just different tweets just recently.

00:13:20.780 I want you to pick up the pattern here.

00:13:23.640 And the pattern I'm looking for, well, I guess I'm priming you for the pattern, so you don't have to look for it.

00:13:28.380 The pattern is he seems to say exactly what you want him to say.

00:13:34.580 And he seems to be focusing on the priorities that are apparently exactly the ones you would want him to focus on.

00:13:42.440 And what's weird about it is that it stands out.

00:13:44.960 Isn't that weird?

00:13:47.560 That he's simply doing his job.

00:13:49.860 It like stands out.

00:13:53.380 Like, why does that stand out?

00:13:55.480 Let me just read the things he said recently.

00:13:57.840 And you see if you can, you see it.

00:13:59.560 Maybe in case it's my imagination, right?

00:14:01.520 So just in no order, these are things he said either on a podcast or in his own tweets.

00:14:07.940 Quote, our FBI is corrupted by political interests domestically and compromised by foreign interests financially.

00:14:15.340 How important is that?

00:14:19.160 Like right at the top, right?

00:14:21.880 That's really, really important to us.

00:14:24.580 And he just says it directly.

00:14:26.100 There's no hedging here.

00:14:28.100 Like the part you don't want to hear is all the weird hedging.

00:14:31.280 No, this is just a fact now.

00:14:33.460 And he just puts it right out there directly.

00:14:35.880 Here's another one.

00:14:36.740 I'm not here for the document drama.

00:14:41.080 I think having people in the national security apparatus trying to shape the presidential field is not a good thing regardless of your political persuasion.

00:14:51.200 So he doesn't care about the documents.

00:14:53.520 Okay, I'm totally on board.

00:14:55.000 I think we enjoy the documents as a political conversation.

00:14:58.380 But I don't think anybody thinks they're important.

00:15:00.620 So I agree with him.

00:15:01.420 And then he says that by having the national security apparatus shape our presidential field, yes.

00:15:08.740 Yeah, what's more important than that?

00:15:11.340 Yes.

00:15:12.140 That's like right at the top of things you should be caring about.

00:15:15.140 Who else is talking about it?

00:15:17.480 That's the question.

00:15:19.320 Then Matt Gaetz asks, we are now funding Ukraine's government and our own.

00:15:24.200 Why should Ukraine get less oversight?

00:15:27.600 Because the money that goes to Ukraine just goes into a black box.

00:15:31.420 Of corruption.

00:15:32.780 And the money that we spend in America, we at least try to figure out where it went.

00:15:37.180 Is that a good point?

00:15:38.900 Yes.

00:15:39.700 It's probably the only good point about Ukraine. 0.98

00:15:43.220 It's the only point we should all agree on.

00:15:45.840 You know, you could disagree whether you should be there or not or how you're handling it.

00:15:49.720 But should there be any disagreement on we should know exactly where our money goes?

00:15:55.380 No.

00:15:56.320 How important is it?

00:15:57.300 Well, it's trillions, well, not trillions yet, but it's billions and billions of dollars.

00:16:02.000 Yeah.

00:16:02.660 Really, really important.

00:16:04.360 Thank you, Matt Gaetz, for pointing that out.

00:16:07.580 Another one.

00:16:09.220 Those who perpetrated the Russia collusion hoax on American people were, in fact, taking corrupt cash from Russia.

00:16:15.640 So that's the new story about the FBI agent who was doing that.

00:16:18.840 How important is that?

00:16:21.740 Really, really, really important.

00:16:24.540 Really important.

00:16:27.840 So do you see it?

00:16:31.200 I'm not imagining, right, that Matt Gaetz is accurately picking up the most important things, mostly to his base.

00:16:37.600 But I would argue they should be important to everybody.

00:16:42.020 I don't know.

00:16:43.180 He's continuing to impress with what I guess you could call a comeback.

00:16:48.020 But since the charges were dropped in that whole case, there's really nothing to come back from.

00:16:55.040 So he's doing great.

00:16:56.560 And somehow he's managed to continue to be a full-throated supporter of Trump, and it doesn't seem to be hurting him.

00:17:05.800 Somehow he's pulling this all off.

00:17:07.840 You're going to have to keep an eye on that.

00:17:10.640 Because when you see that much skill, it usually predicts.

00:17:16.000 All right.

00:17:17.380 Oh, let's see.

00:17:18.520 He also said, that's why Jim Jordan and I will hold hearings, bring whistleblowers forward, and demand answers.

00:17:26.560 To determine how deep the rock goes, talking about the intelligence agencies and FBI, of course.

00:17:34.140 And then here's also Bill Gates.

00:17:36.180 I think he said this on Timcast.

00:17:38.400 We had bills that broke, bills, you know, legislation.

00:17:41.840 We had bills that broke up big tech.

00:17:44.140 We were waiting for them to come to the floor.

00:17:46.640 Then, on the dip, you know, because the big tech stocks went down because Congress was, you know, going to scrutinize them.

00:17:59.160 And then he says that when they went down, Paul Pelosi bought a bunch of those stocks,

00:18:05.100 and then those bills never went to the floor.

00:18:09.280 Nancy Pelosi.

00:18:10.040 Now, how important is that?

00:18:15.440 Really, really important.

00:18:17.380 Like, really, really, really important.

00:18:20.600 So, again, he's just all in the right things.

00:18:22.640 Now, apparently, Senator Hawley has introduced the Pelosi Act,

00:18:28.560 which would disallow members of Congress from trading individual stocks.

00:18:35.740 Now, they could still invest.

00:18:37.320 They would just buy, you know, mutual funds and stuff like that.

00:18:41.240 There are a few ways they could do it.

00:18:42.340 They just wouldn't be making their own decisions on individual stocks.

00:18:46.880 So, who knows if that will get passed.

00:18:49.660 It would be embarrassing to vote against it.

00:18:52.240 How could you vote against that?

00:18:54.880 Really?

00:18:56.360 Could you?

00:18:57.040 You're a member of Congress,

00:18:58.620 and you would vote for allowing yourself to have special information and buy stocks.

00:19:03.800 Who could vote for that?

00:19:06.320 I'm sure the Democrats will find some reason to object,

00:19:10.580 but it's going to be hilarious to hear their reason.

00:19:14.420 All right, here's what the Pelosi Act stands for.

00:19:17.640 So, you know, they always make the act.

00:19:19.740 It's not just because it's about Pelosi.

00:19:22.560 It's, you know, a generic thing.

00:19:25.580 So, the Pelosi stands for preventing elected leaders from owning securities and investments.

00:19:34.300 Pelosi.

00:19:39.400 I can't give them a compliment for how they're governing the country.

00:19:45.540 Can't do it.

00:19:46.980 But their ability to make up clever names for legislation, unparalleled.

00:19:54.680 Unparalleled.

00:19:56.640 Yeah.

00:19:57.860 So, good job there.

00:20:03.420 Here's something that I need a fact check on.

00:20:08.080 So, you all know Robert F. Kennedy Jr., right?

00:20:11.740 Everybody knows Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

00:20:13.740 Very active in the vaccination conversations, both prior to COVID and throughout.

00:20:22.440 And he tweeted at me today.

00:20:26.420 I didn't realize he follows me on Twitter.

00:20:28.960 But he tweeted at me today.

00:20:30.140 And he was telling me that at Children's HD and hashtag The Defender.

00:20:36.500 I don't know what they are.

00:20:37.540 They must be Twitter entities.

00:20:40.580 Has a more robust and rigorous fact-checking operation than any legacy news provider.

00:20:45.700 Remember I was telling you that what we need is some kind of independent fact-checker for medical recommendations.

00:20:53.940 You know, somebody who can say, well, that used to be a good pill, but, you know, there's a new study that says you shouldn't take it.

00:21:00.480 You know, that sort of thing.

00:21:01.800 So, a consumer can get a medical recommendation and then just check it against somebody who's good at research.

00:21:07.860 Not necessarily a doctor.

00:21:09.280 Just somebody who's good at research.

00:21:10.340 And so, anyway, so, that's who Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recommends, the Children's HD, I don't know what that is, and hashtag The Defender.

00:21:24.320 But then he goes on.

00:21:28.100 He says, let me know if we ever err.

00:21:30.000 Oh, he must be involved with this.

00:21:31.620 So, he goes, let me know if we ever err.

00:21:34.020 So, I guess he has some involvement in those entities, or one of them.

00:21:36.860 And we will apologize and correct.

00:21:40.840 And then here's the part that just totally threw me.

00:21:43.000 This is his last sentence of the tweet.

00:21:45.320 He says, he's tweeting to me.

00:21:47.220 He says, thanks, Scott, for inspiring me to get a surgery for my spasmodic dysphonia.

00:21:54.640 What?

00:21:56.700 Now, I know I recommended it.

00:21:58.920 And I tried to get that message to him a few different ways.

00:22:02.060 But I wasn't sure that he had the same, well,

00:22:04.820 I know that he doesn't have exactly the same form of spasmodic dysphonia.

00:22:09.300 That's a voice disorder.

00:22:12.620 As I had.

00:22:13.600 But there are two flavors.

00:22:15.380 And I thought he might have the other flavor.

00:22:17.860 And I wasn't sure if there was a surgery for that one, but apparently there is.

00:22:21.260 Now, what I don't know is if he's still recovering from it.

00:22:25.320 Or, because we haven't heard him speak well in public yet, right?

00:22:29.500 Is that true?

00:22:30.060 We have not heard him speak well in public.

00:22:35.480 Which means he may be actually recovering right now.

00:22:38.740 Has anybody seen him in public recently?

00:22:42.260 Because, and then I did a quick Google search.

00:22:44.180 I didn't see anything about it.

00:22:48.180 Oh, he was on Tucker and sounds better.

00:22:50.340 And he was on Tucker last week, and did he sound better?

00:22:58.420 Oh, really?

00:23:00.140 Well, I'm going to have to look that up.

00:23:02.000 That would be amazing.

00:23:04.460 I hope this is, I hope that I actually helped.

00:23:07.840 You know, I've told you before that the weirdest thing about my life

00:23:11.160 is how many medical cures I've been behind.

00:23:16.340 And, you know, that I've literally caused people to heal in a variety of ways.

00:23:22.460 Now, one of them is I was promoting the surgical solution

00:23:26.360 for what had been an incurable problem for forever.

00:23:31.320 And anybody who got that surgery and got it fixed,

00:23:35.240 if they heard it from me, then, you know, then I helped.

00:23:38.460 And there are a number of other, you know, diseases and stuff

00:23:42.200 that I've helped with directly and indirectly.

00:23:43.920 All right, the menu movie.

00:23:48.100 Okay.

00:23:49.720 So, good luck to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on his voice travels.

00:23:54.900 If his experience is like mine, Shy Bladder, for example,

00:24:00.480 if his experience is like mine, the recovery period lasts a long time.

00:24:06.020 So your voice will be better fairly quickly,

00:24:08.600 but then it just continues improving as you, you know,

00:24:13.440 as your vocal mechanism heals to its perfect state.

00:24:18.380 So I think it took me years, actually years, for my voice to normalize.

00:24:24.740 But it did.

00:24:27.080 All right.

00:24:27.660 Rasmussen poll says that the GOP is just creeping the Democrats

00:24:32.740 on these three issues, energy, immigration, and spending.

00:24:40.120 Those seem like pretty big issues, don't they?

00:24:43.800 Energy, immigration, and spending.

00:24:46.620 The public, by a majority, not just a plurality,

00:24:50.700 but by an actual solid majority,

00:24:52.840 which means that independents and Democrats, a little bit, are crossing over.

00:24:57.380 So here are the numbers.

00:24:59.540 53% of likely U.S. voters trust Republicans more than more to handle immigration.

00:25:05.900 So Republicans on immigration, 53%.

00:25:08.420 Only 36% trust Democrats, and then, you know, there's the people in between.

00:25:14.240 That's a huge difference.

00:25:16.700 The Republicans just have a solid winning position on immigration.

00:25:21.720 Now, I'll say it again.

00:25:23.980 If Trump comes in and just says the same things he used to say about immigration,

00:25:28.880 he will give away all of the advantage.

00:25:31.720 Am I right?

00:25:33.420 If he just acts the way he always acts,

00:25:35.740 says the same things he always says,

00:25:37.360 he will give away all of the advantage.

00:25:40.480 All he needs to do is just play it.

00:25:43.480 We need to control the border,

00:25:45.540 and then we need to separate the question of who comes in.

00:25:48.720 Just one little change.

00:25:50.160 Just separate the question of who comes in from the management of the physical border.

00:25:56.360 You just do that, you own the topic.

00:25:59.960 Such a small change, and one that Trump would not disagree with.

00:26:04.440 Do you think Trump would disagree with separating the physical security,

00:26:09.140 which he wants, from the decision of how much to open the door?

00:26:12.880 No, he said that directly.

00:26:14.400 Right.

00:26:14.580 He said the big, beautiful door so that you can let people in,

00:26:19.060 but you do it, you know, reasonably and logically.

00:26:23.900 So I think, you know, I mean, this is just like a huge superhighway

00:26:27.900 for a Republican to just walk into the office at this point.

00:26:32.160 So energy, of course, you know, the Republicans are better on energy.

00:26:37.280 Let's say, oh, 48% trust Republicans, so it's not over 50%.

00:26:42.060 But only 40% trust Democrats.

00:26:44.560 Again, it's a pretty big difference between 40% and 48%.

00:26:47.700 And then on environmental policy, 43% trust Republicans,

00:26:55.540 and exactly the same trust Democrats.

00:26:58.300 What about crime and homeland defense?

00:27:05.100 That's not the subject of this poll.

00:27:07.920 Do you think that Republicans or Democrats would win with the general public on crime?

00:27:13.500 Oh, spending is the third one, sorry.

00:27:16.100 Yeah, somewhere there's something about spending.

00:27:19.420 50% trust Republicans more on spending,

00:27:22.440 and only 35% trust Democrats.

00:27:25.540 Thank you.

00:27:29.200 And so what about crime and homeland defense, you know, national defense?

00:27:33.400 Don't you think Republicans win that too?

00:27:37.700 Like, I haven't seen the numbers recently, but I think so, right?

00:27:40.900 So this would mean that Republicans are better on fiscal things.

00:27:48.300 I think you could call that the economy, fiscal handling, energy, the environment,

00:27:57.600 immigration, crime, and homeland defense.

00:28:02.320 And the election is still going to be close.

00:28:10.140 Thank goodness for mail-in voting, huh?

00:28:13.240 Because it doesn't look like we would have a two-party system anymore

00:28:16.180 if we didn't have interesting election mechanisms. 0.97

00:28:21.720 I don't think it would even be close.

00:28:24.400 The polling shows that you couldn't win as a Democrat today.

00:28:28.960 Am I wrong?

00:28:29.900 Because here's the other thing.

00:28:33.140 Here's the thing that the Republicans did brilliantly.

00:28:38.200 Here's something they did brilliantly.

00:28:40.720 They got abortion over with. 0.99

00:28:44.640 Right?

00:28:44.860 They got it over with.

00:28:46.040 So they took a hit.

00:28:47.740 The Republicans took a huge hit

00:28:49.300 by, you know, changing it, pushing it back to the states.

00:28:54.140 But now that it's pushed back to the states,

00:28:56.960 that's done.

00:28:57.840 It's pushed back to the states.

00:28:59.780 It's completely a state issue now.

00:29:02.480 So if you just wait a bit longer,

00:29:05.720 nobody's going to be voting because of Roe versus Wade

00:29:09.140 at the federal level.

00:29:11.100 They'll definitely vote at the state level.

00:29:13.320 But at the federal level, the Republicans have,

00:29:15.860 I think, you know, this is a psychology question,

00:29:19.500 so you can't know for sure.

00:29:21.020 But I think the Republicans have removed

00:29:23.660 their biggest negative issue

00:29:25.900 by dealing with it fast.

00:29:28.420 Basically, they ripped the Band-Aid off.

00:29:31.100 You know what Republicans are good at?

00:29:34.220 Ripping the Band-Aid off.

00:29:36.140 Am I right?

00:29:36.680 If you had to pick somebody to rip the Band-Aid off

00:29:40.940 and just take the pain and get on with it.

00:29:43.200 Just take the pain, do it now, 1.00

00:29:46.180 just eat the shit now, and get on with it. 1.00

00:29:49.300 It's always going to be Republican. 1.00

00:29:51.580 I know, it's a general, a gross generalization.

00:29:55.280 But it does seem to be built into the philosophy.

00:29:57.780 All right, Pence has documents.

00:30:03.260 So ex-Vice President Pence

00:30:06.000 discovered some classified documents in his home.

00:30:11.600 But apparently it's all taped shut,

00:30:13.500 and it's maybe one box, and he put it in a safe,

00:30:15.760 and he did all the right things.

00:30:17.580 So Pence, I'm going to say it for the millionth time,

00:30:22.960 because I love it when somebody just does all the right things,

00:30:26.100 and then they just keep doing it.

00:30:28.980 Pence is probably the most reasonable,

00:30:33.020 grounded patriot of all time.

00:30:38.580 Like, the fact that he stays in his lane

00:30:40.580 and just, like, masters, he masters his domain.

00:30:45.100 I know that's a funny reference,

00:30:46.120 but he's sort of a master of his domain.

00:30:48.860 Like, even the thing that we laughed at him the most,

00:30:51.520 that he wouldn't go to lunch with a woman 0.99

00:30:53.120 unless his wife was there, totally right.

00:30:57.040 Totally right.

00:30:57.940 Pence was so right about that.

00:30:59.620 The Pence rule,

00:31:00.900 don't do something with a woman who's not your wife. 0.95

00:31:03.560 Totally right.

00:31:05.280 But nobody's been more right than that

00:31:07.040 ever in the history of rightness.

00:31:09.840 Simp.

00:31:11.760 Okay.

00:31:12.780 Well, he's playing the odds right, I think.

00:31:15.660 All right, well, we have to talk about mass shootings.

00:31:17.980 You know, I've told you that I don't like to talk about

00:31:19.860 the individual shootings and crime.

00:31:23.020 I don't like to give them attention,

00:31:25.280 and I don't have much to offer, right,

00:31:28.260 because it's always the same argument.

00:31:29.620 It's just a different shooting.

00:31:31.480 But I'm going to make one alarming prediction.

00:31:35.000 We see already that the number of mass shootings

00:31:37.260 is starting to really hockey stick up.

00:31:41.760 Right?

00:31:41.980 Everybody sees it now.

00:31:45.260 Like, the number of mass shootings is just climbing.

00:31:47.280 That is not going to stop.

00:31:50.740 Do you know why?

00:31:52.640 Do you know why the number of mass shootings

00:31:54.380 is going to skyrocket?

00:31:56.360 Not because of gun ownership.

00:31:58.860 Not because of gun ownership.

00:32:00.860 I mean, it requires gun ownership.

00:32:03.140 It wouldn't happen without it.

00:32:04.820 But it's not the reason it's going to skyrocket.

00:32:09.160 All right, I'm just going to say the same thing

00:32:11.320 that I said on Twitter.

00:32:13.920 Men know.

00:32:15.720 Men know.

00:32:16.300 Women don't know what's happening. 1.00

00:32:20.480 Women are completely confused. 1.00

00:32:22.540 Do you know why women are confused? 1.00

00:32:25.340 Because they don't give a shit about men. 1.00

00:32:28.880 That's the whole reason. 1.00

00:32:30.180 Women don't care anything about men. 1.00

00:32:32.360 What they think, what they feel,

00:32:34.360 what their situation in society is, 1.00

00:32:36.740 and how it's basically gone to crap. 0.99

00:32:39.200 You have an entire gender 0.99

00:32:40.980 who don't have any hope.

00:32:44.140 They don't think they're going to date

00:32:46.780 because Tinder took away their dating options

00:32:49.200 because only the top 10% date.

00:32:52.900 You can't date.

00:32:54.600 So if you can't date,

00:32:56.460 you can't get married,

00:32:58.880 you can't afford getting married,

00:33:01.360 you can't have a kid,

00:33:02.200 and if you did,

00:33:03.720 you would be the third-class citizen in the marriage.

00:33:06.380 You would be less important than the wife, 1.00

00:33:08.320 less important than the kids,

00:33:09.440 less important than the dog.

00:33:12.300 And that's what men have to look forward to.

00:33:15.520 What they have to look forward to

00:33:17.900 is putting a lot of investment

00:33:19.580 in something that won't pay off.

00:33:22.120 There's no longer a path for men.

00:33:25.960 Now, that might be true for women as well. 0.77

00:33:27.900 I don't know.

00:33:28.680 Because the same way that women 1.00

00:33:30.140 don't have a full appreciation for men,

00:33:33.080 men don't have a full appreciation for women

00:33:35.620 and vice versa,

00:33:36.880 and whites and blacks and everybody else,

00:33:38.620 young and old.

00:33:39.520 Actually, young and old is the only one where

00:33:41.180 I think the old can still have some appreciation 0.97

00:33:43.880 for the young,

00:33:44.940 because at least they used to be young.

00:33:46.260 So that might be the one time

00:33:48.700 that somebody can understand the other category,

00:33:51.840 is old people can sometimes understand young people,

00:33:54.620 but not totally.

00:33:56.860 So, everything that I see

00:34:00.400 suggests that the number of men

00:34:02.900 who have no hope

00:34:04.380 and just want to do something exciting before they die

00:34:07.780 are going to do this.

00:34:11.300 And that doesn't explain all of them.

00:34:13.400 You know, some of them are just a beef at work, 0.97

00:34:15.280 and some of them are crazy people and all that. 0.93

00:34:17.600 But I think you're going to see, 0.92

00:34:19.240 like the bottom 10% of men

00:34:22.840 who just don't have any hope,

00:34:24.580 but they do have access to guns.

00:34:26.820 And they're just going to make themselves important

00:34:28.780 because society has made them unimportant.

00:34:32.600 So,

00:34:33.920 let me ask you.

00:34:37.700 So, my take is that nobody cares about men,

00:34:40.560 and they know it.

00:34:41.800 We all know it.

00:34:43.180 And that they don't have hope anymore.

00:34:45.640 Because society has changed.

00:34:47.400 Women don't really need men. 1.00

00:34:49.800 And women have stopped wanting to have babies. 1.00

00:34:53.020 And men can't afford to be, you know, 0.97

00:34:54.720 the sole breadwinner.

00:34:57.440 So,

00:34:57.800 are you all buying this?

00:35:00.600 You know, what's interesting,

00:35:01.840 I don't see anybody pushing back.

00:35:04.160 I see no pushback.

00:35:06.040 Right.

00:35:07.760 Now,

00:35:09.240 I'm going to go further and say that men generally understand this.

00:35:14.580 Women probably only understand it because they're hearing it, 1.00

00:35:17.240 and it sort of makes sense when you hear it.

00:35:19.280 But did you know this?

00:35:20.960 How many of you women understood that the situation for men

00:35:24.500 is beyond dire?

00:35:25.960 You know,

00:35:27.320 dire is where you just,

00:35:28.460 you know,

00:35:28.700 you're uncomfortable,

00:35:30.180 and,

00:35:30.340 you know,

00:35:30.840 it's serious.

00:35:32.400 We're all the way to men are just going to kill themselves

00:35:34.720 and as many people as they can kill at the same time. 0.79

00:35:38.020 because they don't give 0.99

00:35:39.740 a darn.

00:35:43.380 See how, 0.99

00:35:43.760 see how well I did?

00:35:45.060 That was totally a place where I would have sworn

00:35:47.140 if this were not 2023.

00:35:49.240 I totally would have let loose a whole tirade of horrible words,

00:35:53.760 but I did not.

00:35:54.300 I held back.

00:35:55.360 I held back.

00:35:56.500 It wasn't easy.

00:35:58.220 All right.

00:35:58.820 So,

00:35:59.000 mass shootings,

00:35:59.820 expect them to skyrocket,

00:36:01.180 and expect that nobody will do anything about it

00:36:03.140 because

00:36:04.140 nobody cares about men. 0.76

00:36:08.680 They'll just go after the guns. 0.98

00:36:12.340 Here's a simulation alert.

00:36:14.400 So,

00:36:14.600 you know that Schiff and Swalwell got kicked off the intel committee.

00:36:18.100 McCarthy did a pretty awesome job

00:36:21.520 talking to reporters in public

00:36:23.320 and telling them why he kicked those two people off.

00:36:26.560 And I think most,

00:36:27.840 most Republican-leaning people

00:36:30.540 looked at that and said,

00:36:32.060 yep,

00:36:32.680 that is what we wanted.

00:36:34.160 That's,

00:36:34.860 that is exactly why we want you to be in charge.

00:36:37.620 If you're happy with McCarthy.

00:36:39.460 If you are,

00:36:40.360 that's why.

00:36:42.000 He gave the right answer.

00:36:43.580 And he basically said,

00:36:45.220 you know,

00:36:45.800 they're available for other committees.

00:36:48.840 We're not saying that they can't be in Congress.

00:36:51.120 That's not up to us.

00:36:52.580 We're just saying this one specific thing

00:36:54.540 requires somebody who are not gigantic liars,

00:36:57.340 and those two proved that they lied to the country

00:37:00.060 about classified information.

00:37:04.240 They didn't just lie in general,

00:37:05.880 which would be,

00:37:06.500 you know,

00:37:06.760 everybody in Congress.

00:37:08.260 They lied about the stuff that only they could see.

00:37:11.660 Now,

00:37:12.040 that was more Schiff.

00:37:13.420 I don't know what the Swalwell thing is.

00:37:15.360 Now,

00:37:15.580 the Swalwell spy thing,

00:37:17.500 I'm going to go with Matt Gase on that,

00:37:19.900 that maybe we're making too much of that

00:37:21.800 because that happened a long time ago,

00:37:23.760 and it wasn't when he was in Congress.

00:37:27.820 So you can use your own judgment about that.

00:37:29.980 The only thing I'd like to add to this conversation,

00:37:32.020 and I haven't heard anybody do it,

00:37:34.260 is that we make fun of Swalwell

00:37:36.400 for allegedly having gas on camera.

00:37:39.880 That didn't really happen,

00:37:41.060 but it's a funny story.

00:37:41.960 And we,

00:37:43.760 of course,

00:37:44.040 we make fun of Schiff

00:37:45.040 because his last name reminds us of something.

00:37:48.560 So what are the odds

00:37:49.760 that we're in this simulation

00:37:51.000 and the two people in the headlines

00:37:53.020 are literally Schiff and Fart?

00:37:55.720 Yeah.

00:37:56.320 Schiff and Fart.

00:37:57.620 The two guys that got kicked off

00:37:59.240 the Intelligence Committee.

00:38:02.420 Schiff and Fart.

00:38:04.300 Come on.

00:38:05.420 Is that funny?

00:38:06.780 No?

00:38:07.820 Okay.

00:38:08.980 Well,

00:38:09.300 moving on.

00:38:09.780 That's all I had for that.

00:38:11.960 That's all I had.

00:38:14.340 That's my only commentary.

00:38:20.040 So Ukraine is interesting

00:38:22.180 in the sense that

00:38:23.140 it feels like the U.S. is at war,

00:38:26.300 but we're doing war

00:38:27.540 the way war will be fought in the future,

00:38:30.500 which is we'll use our technology

00:38:32.980 and we'll get people

00:38:34.740 who are more local to the problem

00:38:38.380 to do the fighting and dying.

00:38:39.620 So it feels to me like

00:38:42.020 the United States is at war with Russia

00:38:43.840 and we're just using Ukraine

00:38:45.580 as the cutout.

00:38:47.580 Now, Ukrainians think 1.00

00:38:48.680 they're at war with Russia,

00:38:49.960 but from my perspective,

00:38:51.300 it just looks like

00:38:52.040 we're at war with Russia

00:38:53.040 and we're just doing it

00:38:54.700 in this semi-clever way

00:38:56.760 so that Russia doesn't treat it 0.96

00:38:58.160 like exactly like a war

00:38:59.400 with the United States.

00:39:00.700 It's like a deniable war

00:39:02.120 that's obviously a war.

00:39:03.140 It's a weird little thing,

00:39:05.120 like we're all pretending

00:39:05.960 it's one thing

00:39:06.640 when it's obviously another thing.

00:39:09.000 But even Andrew Yang

00:39:10.980 was saying,

00:39:11.540 he tweeted today,

00:39:13.100 he was glad the U.S.

00:39:14.120 is going to send

00:39:14.640 Abrams tanks to Ukraine

00:39:16.220 and then I guess

00:39:17.560 the Germans are also

00:39:18.500 going to send their Leopard 2 tanks.

00:39:21.040 I don't know a ton about tanks,

00:39:23.980 but I'm guessing

00:39:25.180 tanks are mostly

00:39:27.300 offensive weapons, right?

00:39:29.720 Is that true?

00:39:30.280 Tanks are mostly

00:39:32.260 offensive weapons,

00:39:33.580 which would suggest

00:39:35.400 that Ukraine's getting ready

00:39:36.660 for an offensive.

00:39:38.520 So is Ukraine 0.63

00:39:39.460 going to go into Crimea?

00:39:42.260 I feel like Ukraine's 1.00

00:39:44.520 best play would be

00:39:47.240 to make a move into Crimea, 0.99

00:39:49.600 suck all of Russia's resources 0.96

00:39:51.400 out of the disputed areas, 0.99

00:39:54.320 then you can take over

00:39:55.960 the disputed areas

00:39:56.900 because they'll just have 0.98

00:39:57.640 conscripts and crap there. 0.99

00:39:59.640 And then also win 0.97

00:40:01.600 in Crimea and you're done.

00:40:04.240 So if they can bring

00:40:05.500 the depleted Russian forces

00:40:07.380 into Crimea,

00:40:08.520 because they would have to go,

00:40:10.320 right?

00:40:10.880 There's no way

00:40:11.840 that Russia would, 0.83

00:40:13.100 you know,

00:40:13.820 allow Crimea

00:40:14.600 to not be perfectly defended

00:40:16.220 because he can't lose Crimea.

00:40:18.240 But it looks like

00:40:19.640 Ukraine is getting ready 0.90

00:40:21.600 for a headshot. 0.93

00:40:23.660 The headshot is Crimea, right? 0.56

00:40:26.120 If Putin loses Crimea,

00:40:27.420 like just loses it,

00:40:29.380 that's pretty bad

00:40:31.880 on his end.

00:40:33.780 Like that would be hard

00:40:34.620 for him to even stay

00:40:35.500 in office without people

00:40:37.020 really questioning

00:40:38.020 his abilities

00:40:38.740 at that point.

00:40:41.640 So you're saying

00:40:42.420 that 30 to 50 tanks

00:40:43.620 without air superiority

00:40:45.060 would be meaningless?

00:40:46.020 Yeah, by themselves,

00:40:49.680 I'm sure.

00:40:51.440 But it would help.

00:40:52.900 So, here's the question.

00:40:55.180 You're missing

00:40:55.800 the Poland roll

00:40:56.760 that's coming.

00:40:57.660 Unbelievable.

00:40:59.640 Unbelievable.

00:41:00.840 If there's one thing

00:41:01.740 that you're disappointed in me,

00:41:03.640 it's that I haven't seen

00:41:04.560 that one person on Twitter

00:41:05.760 who told you something

00:41:06.640 you believe.

00:41:07.960 And that's unbelievable

00:41:09.300 that I'm missing that.

00:41:11.160 Now, I don't,

00:41:11.780 I'd make,

00:41:12.180 let me say

00:41:14.240 as clearly as possible.

00:41:16.920 Wow, that sounded like

00:41:18.060 cringe on Pierre.

00:41:20.700 Let me be as clear

00:41:21.740 as possible.

00:41:24.520 I don't know

00:41:25.180 what's going to happen

00:41:25.760 in Ukraine.

00:41:27.500 How would I know?

00:41:30.360 I'm just saying,

00:41:31.460 you know,

00:41:31.780 as observers,

00:41:33.840 it looks like

00:41:36.040 that's what they're

00:41:36.720 clearing up to do.

00:41:38.040 Now, whatever's happening

00:41:39.140 in Poland

00:41:39.600 and Belarus

00:41:40.340 and all that,

00:41:41.040 there's probably

00:41:41.500 a hundred things

00:41:42.320 that I'm not taking

00:41:43.200 into account.

00:41:44.560 But,

00:41:45.620 on the surface,

00:41:47.400 it looks like

00:41:48.180 they're going to

00:41:48.720 threaten Crimea 0.66

00:41:49.660 to drain Russia 0.96

00:41:52.500 into Crimea

00:41:53.140 and then they'll

00:41:54.000 have a better

00:41:54.920 situation

00:41:55.920 when the snow

00:41:57.480 goes away.

00:41:58.560 That's what I think.

00:42:01.380 And then maybe

00:42:02.360 Russia is planning 0.97

00:42:03.240 its own advance.

00:42:05.200 So,

00:42:05.680 I would say

00:42:06.360 after the snow melts,

00:42:07.580 it's a free-for-all.

00:42:10.540 Would you agree

00:42:11.140 with that?

00:42:12.200 After the snow melts,

00:42:13.840 there's no way

00:42:14.420 to know if Russia

00:42:15.200 or Ukraine

00:42:16.380 will have the advantage.

00:42:17.820 Because they're both

00:42:18.700 gearing up

00:42:19.400 and we don't know

00:42:19.960 who's gearing up better.

00:42:21.560 There's no way

00:42:22.060 to know.

00:42:22.840 So,

00:42:23.100 all hell's going

00:42:23.760 to break loose,

00:42:24.840 but it's unpredictable

00:42:26.060 after this.

00:42:27.760 So,

00:42:28.220 if it sounded like

00:42:29.120 I predicted something,

00:42:30.480 I didn't.

00:42:31.900 All right.

00:42:34.320 I'm going to eat

00:42:35.160 some more crow today.

00:42:36.320 for those of you

00:42:37.300 who like to see me

00:42:38.140 be wrong,

00:42:39.800 here's what I think

00:42:42.020 a proper apology

00:42:43.100 should include.

00:42:45.500 It's never enough

00:42:46.560 to just apologize,

00:42:48.000 is it?

00:42:50.360 An apology

00:42:51.220 should come with,

00:42:52.680 you know,

00:42:52.960 you know the harm

00:42:53.960 you did.

00:42:55.240 You know,

00:42:55.440 first the apology,

00:42:56.280 then you acknowledge

00:42:57.180 the harm you did.

00:42:58.840 But then you've got

00:42:59.900 to do the third thing,

00:43:00.920 and the third thing

00:43:01.580 is the hard thing.

00:43:03.840 The third thing

00:43:04.940 is you have to

00:43:06.260 create a plan

00:43:07.580 so you don't do it again.

00:43:09.200 Or at least

00:43:09.700 you have to tell people

00:43:10.580 what you're going

00:43:11.080 to do differently

00:43:11.780 so you will not

00:43:13.060 make that same mistake again.

00:43:14.500 So I did a deep dive

00:43:15.600 on the people

00:43:17.160 who got the

00:43:18.080 pandemic stuff right,

00:43:20.420 and I learned

00:43:23.000 much more

00:43:24.540 about where

00:43:25.120 I got it wrong.

00:43:26.640 And with your indulgence,

00:43:28.560 I would like to take

00:43:29.460 some moment

00:43:30.100 to beat myself up

00:43:31.220 for missing

00:43:32.380 some really obvious

00:43:33.540 signals,

00:43:34.540 really obvious signals

00:43:36.340 that you did not miss.

00:43:39.080 All right?

00:43:39.860 So,

00:43:40.860 this is what I've learned.

00:43:42.920 So I've talked

00:43:43.320 to quite a few people

00:43:44.140 about how they got

00:43:44.840 the right answer

00:43:45.460 when I got all

00:43:46.100 the wrong answers,

00:43:47.180 and here's

00:43:48.420 what I learned.

00:43:55.040 So this was roughly

00:43:57.020 the decision tree

00:43:58.200 that we were dealing with.

00:44:02.800 So the question was,

00:44:04.840 so the young people

00:44:05.740 and the old people,

00:44:06.580 I think we all agree,

00:44:07.580 had a different risk factor.

00:44:09.640 So,

00:44:09.960 but individually

00:44:10.780 it was the same layout,

00:44:12.980 just different risk factors.

00:44:14.580 So you would look

00:44:15.600 at the risk

00:44:16.080 of the shot itself,

00:44:17.760 and when they did,

00:44:19.200 they said,

00:44:19.720 oh,

00:44:19.900 that is greater than

00:44:20.920 the risk of COVID death,

00:44:23.100 which is practically nothing.

00:44:25.900 Would you all agree so far?

00:44:27.020 The risk of dying

00:44:28.600 of COVID,

00:44:29.380 even really early on,

00:44:31.000 well before the vaccination,

00:44:32.940 so-called vaccinations,

00:44:34.120 were available,

00:44:35.400 we really knew

00:44:36.520 that for most people,

00:44:39.900 the risk of death

00:44:40.800 was vanishingly small.

00:44:42.980 Agree?

00:44:44.540 So,

00:44:45.200 in that case,

00:44:45.760 the risk of the shot

00:44:46.400 would certainly,

00:44:47.260 for the young people,

00:44:48.140 would be greater

00:44:48.700 than the risk

00:44:49.340 of dying of COVID.

00:44:52.320 And then,

00:44:53.260 and then that's

00:44:54.400 the end of the conversation.

00:44:55.280 So it's just

00:44:56.800 the risk of the shot

00:44:57.660 versus the risk

00:44:59.340 of the COVID death.

00:45:00.420 And then,

00:45:01.000 if that's bigger,

00:45:02.120 you're done.

00:45:03.120 So a lot of people

00:45:04.020 correctly

00:45:04.700 looked at the data,

00:45:06.780 they did their own research,

00:45:08.260 and they looked

00:45:08.780 at the numbers,

00:45:09.560 even the pharma numbers.

00:45:11.420 When they looked at them,

00:45:12.280 they said,

00:45:13.200 holy cow, 0.51

00:45:13.700 the risk of the shot

00:45:14.500 for young people

00:45:15.280 is definitely bigger

00:45:17.000 than the risk

00:45:18.260 of dying

00:45:19.040 from the COVID itself,

00:45:20.120 so I would be crazy

00:45:21.180 to get the shot

00:45:22.180 because that's a higher risk

00:45:24.000 than the COVID.

00:45:25.180 And then,

00:45:25.660 and then they were done.

00:45:27.360 That's all you need to know.

00:45:28.920 And I'll tell you

00:45:29.500 how they,

00:45:29.980 how they determined

00:45:31.480 this risk in a minute.

00:45:33.780 Is there anything

00:45:34.380 I'm leaving out?

00:45:36.480 I don't think so.

00:45:37.920 So,

00:45:38.360 but then,

00:45:39.200 there's a second part

00:45:40.120 of the analysis.

00:45:41.740 When I say young,

00:45:43.120 I mean people under 65.

00:45:45.400 The people under 65 0.97

00:45:46.840 said their risk

00:45:49.200 of getting the shot

00:45:49.980 was greater

00:45:50.820 than the risk of COVID,

00:45:51.920 and therefore,

00:45:54.560 I made a mistake.

00:45:57.900 So,

00:45:58.460 even though I'm

00:45:59.240 in the 65

00:46:00.280 and older category,

00:46:02.640 because the young people

00:46:04.620 did the research,

00:46:05.900 they felt that the risk

00:46:06.620 of the shot

00:46:06.960 is greater

00:46:07.460 than the risk of COVID,

00:46:09.360 I made a big mistake

00:46:10.640 by getting a shot.

00:46:12.420 Now,

00:46:12.680 that wasn't obvious

00:46:13.420 to me before

00:46:14.140 because I thought

00:46:15.360 these were different

00:46:16.020 risk profiles.

00:46:17.660 But after talking

00:46:18.560 to a lot of people,

00:46:20.440 they're quite clear

00:46:21.260 on it that when

00:46:22.240 they analyzed

00:46:22.860 their own risk

00:46:23.900 and then they compared

00:46:25.640 what they did

00:46:26.540 to what I did,

00:46:27.320 I'd made the wrong decision.

00:46:29.760 So,

00:46:30.740 I'm learning from that.

00:46:33.240 Now,

00:46:33.920 before we go on,

00:46:34.940 is there anything

00:46:35.360 on here I've not

00:46:36.380 discussed yet?

00:46:38.720 Because I learned

00:46:39.680 that there's this

00:46:40.740 other box

00:46:41.320 that I thought

00:46:42.800 was real

00:46:43.440 that I learned

00:46:45.260 is not even real.

00:46:47.480 Did you know that?

00:46:48.420 A lot of people

00:46:50.140 knew the risk

00:46:50.880 of long COVID

00:46:51.780 way before

00:46:54.920 the medical community

00:46:55.900 and they just said,

00:46:58.200 no,

00:46:58.540 I know this risk.

00:47:00.240 Now,

00:47:00.420 I thought it was unknown.

00:47:02.660 Now,

00:47:02.980 let's also do

00:47:03.760 a definition.

00:47:04.900 My definition

00:47:05.560 of long COVID

00:47:06.480 would include

00:47:08.340 several months 0.99

00:47:09.400 of feeling like crap. 0.96

00:47:11.180 Not necessarily, 0.98

00:47:12.340 you know,

00:47:12.580 years.

00:47:13.580 I mean,

00:47:13.760 it could be years,

00:47:14.700 but my definition

00:47:15.680 was months.

00:47:17.020 Now,

00:47:17.440 if you're a young person

00:47:18.460 and you got long COVID,

00:47:21.320 probably you would

00:47:22.400 kick it in,

00:47:23.240 you know,

00:47:23.520 a few days.

00:47:24.220 It's no big deal.

00:47:25.340 Don't you think?

00:47:26.680 Like the young people 1.00

00:47:27.660 just like brush off

00:47:28.600 the COVID

00:47:28.940 because they never,

00:47:29.560 they don't get sick.

00:47:30.480 They don't get that sick

00:47:31.520 in the first place.

00:47:32.700 So,

00:47:33.200 you'd expect

00:47:33.600 if they don't get that sick,

00:47:35.460 their risk of long COVID

00:47:36.660 is probably zero.

00:47:39.100 Now,

00:47:39.540 if you're an older person,

00:47:40.980 let's say you're over 65.

00:47:42.940 Let me tell you

00:47:43.680 one of my own,

00:47:44.800 just like a personal

00:47:45.700 medical criteria.

00:47:49.340 If I get

00:47:50.180 any kind of

00:47:51.240 major medical problem,

00:47:53.200 whether it's COVID

00:47:54.060 or I break my leg,

00:47:56.900 do you know

00:47:57.240 what happens to you

00:47:58.020 when you're 65

00:47:58.980 and you lose,

00:48:01.220 let's say,

00:48:01.620 several months

00:48:02.460 of good health?

00:48:04.540 Do you know

00:48:04.840 what happens?

00:48:06.640 I'll tell you

00:48:07.300 what I think happens.

00:48:08.880 I think you never recover.

00:48:10.760 Like,

00:48:11.500 never.

00:48:12.780 As in,

00:48:13.520 you don't recover.

00:48:14.840 Now,

00:48:15.140 when I say you don't recover,

00:48:16.260 I mean,

00:48:17.140 you'll never get back

00:48:18.060 to your fitness,

00:48:19.860 the fitness level before

00:48:21.420 because it's just too hard

00:48:22.520 to crawl back

00:48:23.840 when you're a certain age.

00:48:25.620 So,

00:48:26.160 I've always been concerned

00:48:27.380 that my health,

00:48:29.140 which is very good,

00:48:30.320 at my current age,

00:48:31.340 it's very good.

00:48:32.260 I've always,

00:48:32.760 and I had my blood done

00:48:33.920 and it's just perfect.

00:48:34.800 Everything's good.

00:48:35.320 And I was concerned,

00:48:37.000 I was always concerned

00:48:37.780 that if some major

00:48:38.940 problem happened,

00:48:40.800 that it would take me

00:48:42.360 a year or more

00:48:43.460 to recover.

00:48:44.600 Now,

00:48:44.880 I'll give you an example.

00:48:45.760 When,

00:48:46.200 during the pandemic,

00:48:47.380 I had to take prednisone

00:48:49.060 to get ready

00:48:50.080 for some sinus surgery.

00:48:52.380 Now,

00:48:52.680 because of the pandemic,

00:48:54.360 my surgery was delayed.

00:48:56.440 So,

00:48:57.000 they put me on prednisone

00:48:57.980 a second time

00:48:58.820 and then it got delayed

00:49:00.700 and then they put me

00:49:01.420 on a third time.

00:49:02.160 You should never be

00:49:03.480 on three doses

00:49:05.500 of prednisone,

00:49:06.440 like long doses,

00:49:07.640 in one year

00:49:08.320 because getting off it

00:49:09.960 is really,

00:49:11.200 really hard.

00:49:12.280 Like,

00:49:12.640 you feel terrible

00:49:13.960 for a long time.

00:49:15.700 Now,

00:49:16.540 the prednisone problem alone

00:49:18.340 probably took

00:49:20.080 nine months

00:49:21.240 out of my life

00:49:21.980 because for months

00:49:24.060 and months,

00:49:25.080 I could barely exercise

00:49:26.700 and,

00:49:27.260 you know,

00:49:27.760 barely get up to

00:49:28.640 where I am now.

00:49:29.320 Now,

00:49:29.720 at the moment,

00:49:30.200 I'm back up to my peak.

00:49:31.840 Everything.

00:49:32.160 Everything's good.

00:49:32.820 But it took me

00:49:33.800 maybe a year

00:49:34.600 to get back.

00:49:36.700 I was concerned

00:49:37.740 that if I got

00:49:38.500 long COVID

00:49:39.180 and just had

00:49:40.240 a normal,

00:49:41.260 you know,

00:49:41.720 week-long,

00:49:43.200 terrible COVID,

00:49:45.000 that what would happen

00:49:45.880 is that I would lose

00:49:47.460 a year of quality life

00:49:49.360 and maybe it would never

00:49:51.160 get back to where it was.

00:49:52.980 So,

00:49:53.520 remember,

00:49:53.960 when a young person

00:49:54.900 gets long COVID,

00:49:56.300 that's not really

00:49:56.940 much of a problem.

00:49:57.680 They'd probably

00:49:58.360 just shake it off.

00:49:59.920 But,

00:50:01.240 if long,

00:50:01.740 if an older person

00:50:03.060 got it,

00:50:03.800 that would be

00:50:04.360 a criteria.

00:50:05.280 Now,

00:50:05.420 what I learned was

00:50:06.200 I'm the only person

00:50:07.860 on this live stream

00:50:09.500 who cares about

00:50:10.160 long COVID.

00:50:11.260 To me,

00:50:11.900 that was the biggest

00:50:12.740 variable,

00:50:14.060 but what I learned

00:50:14.840 is you can just

00:50:15.560 ignore it

00:50:16.100 because you don't

00:50:16.680 know anybody

00:50:17.100 who had this problem.

00:50:19.380 I hadn't thought

00:50:19.820 of that.

00:50:20.620 But if you don't

00:50:21.280 know anybody

00:50:21.720 personally

00:50:22.220 who has had

00:50:22.840 long COVID

00:50:23.400 or you think

00:50:25.100 it's just ordinary,

00:50:26.420 people get sick

00:50:27.420 and then it takes

00:50:28.060 a while to recover,

00:50:28.720 then you wouldn't

00:50:29.800 worry about this.

00:50:31.080 But,

00:50:31.660 I was just watching

00:50:32.560 Joe Scarborough

00:50:33.380 yesterday.

00:50:35.180 Joe Scarborough

00:50:35.780 said that,

00:50:36.660 at least Mika,

00:50:37.740 his wife,

00:50:38.300 who was on the show,

00:50:40.260 said that he took

00:50:41.140 like three months

00:50:42.080 to recover from

00:50:42.900 his most recent

00:50:43.760 COVID.

00:50:45.040 And that was

00:50:45.480 just Omicron.

00:50:46.100 I don't know

00:50:47.960 how old

00:50:48.400 Joe Scarborough is,

00:50:49.700 but he lost

00:50:50.860 three months

00:50:51.400 of his life.

00:50:52.920 Three months

00:50:53.660 of quality living

00:50:54.620 he lost

00:50:55.240 to one infection.

00:50:57.040 Now,

00:50:58.360 I thought,

00:50:59.720 but of course

00:51:00.160 you can't trust

00:51:00.760 the government,

00:51:01.840 that if the

00:51:03.060 shots did

00:51:03.800 nothing but

00:51:04.480 decrease

00:51:05.060 how much

00:51:06.400 you suffered,

00:51:08.040 it would probably

00:51:08.880 decrease your

00:51:09.560 long COVID

00:51:10.200 because the

00:51:11.280 long COVID

00:51:11.840 probably comes

00:51:12.700 from how bad

00:51:13.680 your original

00:51:14.240 infection is.

00:51:15.180 I just assume

00:51:15.920 they're connected,

00:51:16.940 but I don't have

00:51:17.800 any science

00:51:19.120 for that.

00:51:20.180 All right,

00:51:20.440 so what I learned

00:51:21.080 here is that

00:51:21.920 as long as you

00:51:23.120 think young people

00:51:23.880 and old people

00:51:24.460 should be treated

00:51:25.140 the same,

00:51:26.280 and as long as

00:51:26.900 you ignore

00:51:27.900 what I think

00:51:28.620 is the biggest

00:51:29.140 risk because

00:51:30.440 none of us

00:51:31.480 believe that

00:51:31.980 the risk of

00:51:32.540 dying if you're

00:51:33.980 youngish and

00:51:34.660 healthy was

00:51:35.520 worth considering.

00:51:37.500 So I think

00:51:38.200 we all discounted

00:51:39.300 the risk of dying

00:51:40.060 if we were

00:51:40.700 generally young

00:51:41.500 enough and

00:51:41.880 healthy enough,

00:51:42.660 and even I'm

00:51:43.320 young enough,

00:51:44.400 even at 65,

00:51:46.780 I'm young enough

00:51:47.900 to think that

00:51:48.400 the risk of dying

00:51:49.140 was basically zero,

00:51:50.820 but I didn't

00:51:51.960 know about this one.

00:51:52.620 So I didn't

00:51:53.980 do the right

00:51:54.460 thing,

00:51:55.200 which is to

00:51:57.280 discount my

00:51:58.140 biggest risk.

00:51:59.560 So I should

00:52:00.040 have said my

00:52:00.600 biggest risk was

00:52:01.600 actually zero,

00:52:02.400 and then I

00:52:02.820 would have gotten

00:52:03.200 the right answer.

00:52:04.320 Now here's how

00:52:04.880 I would have

00:52:05.200 done it.

00:52:09.900 I'll tell you,

00:52:10.500 this crow tastes

00:52:11.240 good,

00:52:12.640 eating all this

00:52:13.280 crow.

00:52:13.480 So we start

00:52:18.300 with science,

00:52:19.340 and there was

00:52:19.820 lots of science

00:52:20.540 around the

00:52:21.000 COVID and

00:52:21.660 about the

00:52:22.260 vaccination,

00:52:23.380 and the

00:52:23.620 science was

00:52:24.160 doing all the

00:52:24.720 randomized controlled

00:52:26.180 trials and the

00:52:27.060 meta-analysis and

00:52:28.060 the data.

00:52:28.920 They did the

00:52:29.340 observational studies

00:52:30.400 and the peer

00:52:30.880 review, and

00:52:31.960 that part we

00:52:34.280 all appreciate

00:52:35.680 that science

00:52:37.180 doesn't get the

00:52:37.920 right answer

00:52:38.480 every time,

00:52:39.920 but at least

00:52:40.660 it's a process

00:52:41.280 that we respect.

00:52:42.720 Would you

00:52:43.060 agree?

00:52:44.440 We're crawling

00:52:46.020 toward the

00:52:46.540 truth, usually

00:52:48.020 through a lot

00:52:48.700 of wrongness

00:52:49.520 until you get

00:52:50.060 to the truth.

00:52:51.060 So the science

00:52:51.660 isn't about being

00:52:52.440 totally right

00:52:53.680 the first try.

00:52:54.800 It's a process.

00:52:57.680 And there

00:52:58.940 were at least

00:52:59.280 three different

00:52:59.780 ways that people

00:53:00.580 departed from

00:53:02.460 science to make

00:53:03.300 their decision. 1.00

00:53:05.900 The dumbest 1.00

00:53:06.840 people listened 1.00

00:53:09.620 to the government

00:53:10.300 and big pharma

00:53:11.060 and the news

00:53:11.900 and said,

00:53:12.960 well, that

00:53:13.340 sounds right.

00:53:15.500 If these

00:53:16.200 three entities

00:53:16.820 which have

00:53:17.400 lied to us

00:53:17.980 consistently

00:53:18.500 forever, if

00:53:19.780 they say it's

00:53:20.400 okay, I'm

00:53:22.180 taking it.

00:53:23.200 And then they

00:53:23.900 got the wrong

00:53:24.420 answer.

00:53:24.760 So they

00:53:26.540 believed people

00:53:27.740 Now, a lot

00:53:28.400 of people

00:53:28.680 thought I

00:53:29.180 was in this

00:53:29.700 group, but

00:53:31.820 I wasn't in

00:53:32.340 that group.

00:53:33.340 I was in

00:53:33.980 this group.

00:53:36.720 I thought I

00:53:37.660 didn't understand

00:53:38.400 anything about the

00:53:39.260 science and

00:53:40.060 didn't have a

00:53:40.540 way to really

00:53:41.420 understand it.

00:53:42.160 So I used 1.00

00:53:43.640 my penis to 1.00

00:53:44.440 make my 1.00

00:53:44.780 decision.

00:53:46.180 And my 1.00

00:53:46.880 penis said, 1.00

00:53:47.720 if I get the

00:53:48.780 vaccination, I

00:53:50.720 can go on a

00:53:51.360 trip to

00:53:51.780 Santorini, later

00:53:54.020 to Bora Bora,

00:53:55.460 with a beautiful

00:53:56.360 woman, instead 1.00

00:53:58.220 of being locked

00:53:59.100 down with

00:54:00.700 COVID.

00:54:01.960 Now, so I

00:54:03.080 used my 1.00

00:54:03.500 penis, and 1.00

00:54:05.160 my penis, I 1.00

00:54:08.380 don't like to 1.00

00:54:08.780 admit this, my 1.00

00:54:12.040 penis has a 1.00

00:54:12.860 terrible track

00:54:13.760 record for

00:54:15.440 decisions.

00:54:16.280 I don't know

00:54:16.660 about yours.

00:54:18.320 And I know

00:54:19.080 many of you

00:54:19.520 don't have a 0.99

00:54:20.040 penis, so I'm 0.99

00:54:21.700 just speaking to 0.78

00:54:22.300 those who do. 1.00

00:54:23.100 Is your penis 1.00

00:54:23.820 smart? 1.00

00:54:25.300 Because my 1.00

00:54:25.720 penis doesn't 1.00

00:54:26.760 know anything.

00:54:27.840 Like, I keep

00:54:28.860 expecting it to

00:54:29.780 make good

00:54:31.060 decisions, and

00:54:31.720 I'm like, hey,

00:54:33.940 what do you

00:54:34.560 think we should

00:54:34.980 do about taxes?

00:54:37.420 Nothing.

00:54:37.900 Basically won't

00:54:39.340 even help me on

00:54:39.940 my taxes.

00:54:40.940 So this was a

00:54:41.720 big, complicated

00:54:42.440 medical decision.

00:54:45.160 I delegated it to 1.00

00:54:46.340 my penis, my 1.00

00:54:47.040 penis got it 1.00

00:54:47.660 wrong, and

00:54:48.280 that's on me.

00:54:49.560 That's on me. 1.00

00:54:51.340 So, shoot me. 0.99

00:54:54.280 But the 1.00

00:54:54.940 people who

00:54:55.340 were correct

00:54:55.960 used a much

00:54:57.460 better and

00:54:58.060 more rational

00:54:58.660 decision-making

00:55:00.180 process.

00:55:01.700 They looked at

00:55:03.040 all the science,

00:55:03.740 and they said

00:55:04.120 to themselves,

00:55:04.800 that's not

00:55:05.220 enough.

00:55:06.000 We must use 0.84

00:55:06.780 our personal

00:55:07.280 research and

00:55:07.980 assessment to

00:55:09.060 find out, you

00:55:10.040 know, what this

00:55:10.600 really means.

00:55:11.860 We've got to

00:55:12.260 look deeper.

00:55:12.880 We've got to

00:55:13.160 look at the, not

00:55:14.320 just the

00:55:14.740 mainstream, we've

00:55:15.500 got to look at

00:55:15.940 the, you know,

00:55:16.940 the critics.

00:55:17.600 We've got to

00:55:17.840 look at the

00:55:18.840 bigger world.

00:55:20.260 And I want to

00:55:21.400 be complimentary

00:55:23.960 about this

00:55:24.860 group, because I

00:55:26.260 know I've been

00:55:26.660 harsh in the

00:55:27.240 past.

00:55:28.180 I want to be

00:55:28.880 very clear that

00:55:30.640 in order to do

00:55:31.880 good personal

00:55:32.800 research and

00:55:33.760 assessment of

00:55:34.660 this seems like

00:55:35.980 a very complicated

00:55:37.380 area, the

00:55:39.560 people who did

00:55:40.100 this right were

00:55:40.740 not just

00:55:41.400 experts.

00:55:42.920 They were not

00:55:43.480 just people who

00:55:45.380 were, like, data

00:55:46.800 analysts.

00:55:47.940 They were not

00:55:48.380 just doctors.

00:55:49.360 They were not

00:55:49.700 just researchers.

00:55:50.880 These were

00:55:51.400 ordinary people,

00:55:52.320 blue-collar people,

00:55:54.300 people with every

00:55:55.080 kind of education,

00:55:56.400 and they were

00:55:57.460 fully qualified,

00:55:59.440 every one of them,

00:56:00.280 to look at this

00:56:01.640 complicated stuff

00:56:03.040 that, you know,

00:56:05.080 to me, I just

00:56:05.800 couldn't figure out

00:56:06.560 anything.

00:56:07.720 I didn't know

00:56:08.080 which was a

00:56:08.500 bigger risk.

00:56:09.360 But if you did

00:56:09.920 your personal

00:56:10.540 research and you

00:56:12.260 ignored long

00:56:13.060 COVID, that was

00:56:14.000 important, you

00:56:15.280 would get the

00:56:15.760 correct answer.

00:56:18.100 Now, I like to

00:56:19.440 show both sides

00:56:21.020 of every argument.

00:56:21.940 That always gets

00:56:22.680 me in trouble.

00:56:24.040 So I'd like to

00:56:26.540 point out that

00:56:27.120 there are some

00:56:27.960 critics of this

00:56:29.940 approach.

00:56:31.300 I'm not one of

00:56:32.240 them, so don't

00:56:33.220 put this on me,

00:56:34.080 please.

00:56:35.380 Right.

00:56:36.080 This is clearly

00:56:37.040 the approach that

00:56:37.820 got the right

00:56:38.380 answer.

00:56:38.980 It is rational.

00:56:40.680 And compare it

00:56:42.360 to the alternatives.

00:56:43.980 What?

00:56:44.260 Am I going to

00:56:45.300 recommend that you

00:56:46.460 stop using your

00:56:47.300 rational analysis

00:56:48.140 and use your 1.00

00:56:49.280 penis? 1.00

00:56:50.460 Half of you don't 0.99

00:56:51.400 even have one.

00:56:52.400 How's that going

00:56:53.000 to work?

00:56:53.920 You can't make a

00:56:54.840 decision with a 1.00

00:56:55.560 vagina. 1.00

00:56:56.560 That would be 1.00

00:56:57.000 stupid. 1.00

00:56:58.160 But, you know, 1.00

00:56:58.620 sometimes a 1.00

00:56:59.180 penis. 1.00

00:56:59.940 Gets it right. 0.95

00:57:02.080 But still, it's

00:57:03.160 not recommended.

00:57:05.220 And nobody's

00:57:06.000 going to recommend

00:57:06.440 you listen to the

00:57:07.080 government and

00:57:07.680 pharma and the

00:57:08.220 news.

00:57:09.300 Those are your

00:57:10.000 other choices.

00:57:11.340 So I think you

00:57:12.240 would join me in

00:57:13.000 saying, don't use 1.00

00:57:14.360 your penis or 1.00

00:57:17.000 vagina to make a 1.00

00:57:17.860 decision. 0.98

00:57:18.560 Don't listen to the

00:57:19.480 government and big

00:57:20.040 pharma and news

00:57:20.740 because they're 0.96

00:57:21.340 professional liars. 0.95

00:57:23.400 Do a rational 0.85

00:57:24.900 process.

00:57:25.520 be you a

00:57:26.840 scientist, data

00:57:28.720 analyst, or just

00:57:30.040 somebody who's a

00:57:31.720 smart person who's

00:57:32.860 doing the work, do

00:57:34.420 your personal

00:57:34.940 research and

00:57:35.540 assessment to get

00:57:36.260 the correct answer.

00:57:37.120 And we see that

00:57:37.860 they did.

00:57:38.800 They did, in fact.

00:57:40.120 But it has to be

00:57:41.000 said, there are some

00:57:41.740 critics.

00:57:42.980 There would be some

00:57:43.540 people who would

00:57:44.260 disagree with this.

00:57:47.700 We'll just use some

00:57:48.540 examples of people

00:57:49.440 who disagree.

00:57:49.960 Isaac Newton, Isaac

00:57:53.700 Newton wouldn't

00:57:54.340 want to see this

00:57:55.060 because Isaac Newton

00:57:57.660 would say, wait a

00:57:58.600 minute, I invented

00:58:00.300 science so that you

00:58:02.780 wouldn't do this

00:58:03.720 because that's what

00:58:05.680 we were doing

00:58:06.160 before.

00:58:07.480 So I invented

00:58:08.480 science because this

00:58:10.400 would be sort of

00:58:12.460 adding a subjective

00:58:13.440 layer on top of the

00:58:14.460 science.

00:58:15.660 So Isaac Newton

00:58:16.360 wouldn't like this.

00:58:18.020 But can we agree

00:58:19.140 that Isaac Newton

00:58:19.940 he pooped in a 0.94

00:58:22.180 hole and he was 0.80

00:58:23.260 in the 1600s and

00:58:25.380 we don't really need

00:58:26.280 to listen to an

00:58:27.680 old dead guy.

00:58:29.760 So we can discount

00:58:32.000 Isaac Newton, I

00:58:32.900 think.

00:58:33.860 What about,

00:58:35.280 does anybody else

00:58:36.040 disagree?

00:58:37.520 Carl Sagan.

00:58:38.880 Carl Sagan

00:58:39.580 wouldn't like this

00:58:40.300 at all because he

00:58:41.380 would like this

00:58:41.980 part, but I think

00:58:43.440 he would probably

00:58:44.300 have some complaints

00:58:45.320 about non-scientists

00:58:47.980 doing their own

00:58:48.760 deep research.

00:58:49.440 He might say,

00:58:50.980 oh Scott,

00:58:51.660 that's taking the

00:58:54.360 entire benefit of

00:58:55.220 science and

00:58:55.800 discarding it like it

00:58:56.840 didn't count.

00:58:57.880 But Carl Sagan is

00:58:59.640 dead.

00:59:01.800 Are you going to 0.99

00:59:02.460 listen to a dead 0.51

00:59:03.080 guy?

00:59:03.300 I mean, how smart

00:59:05.720 is he?

00:59:06.160 He died anyway.

00:59:06.740 So, well let's talk

00:59:11.320 about, I saw Jimmy

00:59:12.840 Doerr was talking

00:59:14.080 about my analysis

00:59:14.880 and he says that

00:59:16.680 not only am I,

00:59:18.660 you know, just the

00:59:19.340 Dilbert guy, but he

00:59:21.600 is very annoyed in

00:59:22.520 my arrogance on this

00:59:24.120 topic.

00:59:25.300 My arrogance.

00:59:27.680 Do I seem

00:59:28.460 arrogant?

00:59:30.260 I don't seem

00:59:31.040 arrogant, do I?

00:59:31.640 I'm eating humble 0.98

00:59:33.860 crow as hard as I

00:59:34.860 can.

00:59:36.640 I told you you're

00:59:37.820 all right and I

00:59:38.520 got it wrong.

00:59:39.720 I told you I have

00:59:40.540 great regret because

00:59:41.740 I'm not a pure

00:59:42.960 blood.

00:59:44.580 But Jimmy Doerr had

00:59:45.660 some good criticisms

00:59:46.540 and I'd like to

00:59:47.980 address them on his

00:59:48.860 show.

00:59:49.180 He talked quite a bit

00:59:50.260 about me and my

00:59:51.380 opinions on this.

00:59:53.220 And the first thing

00:59:55.480 when I saw the show,

00:59:56.940 I said to myself,

00:59:57.680 wow, Jimmy Doerr's

01:00:00.100 not doing too well,

01:00:01.040 but, you know, age

01:00:02.300 catches up with all

01:00:03.580 of us.

01:00:04.400 Now, I hadn't seen a

01:00:05.440 Jimmy Doerr show in a

01:00:06.300 while and it looked

01:00:07.220 like he had sort of

01:00:08.960 aged.

01:00:10.520 And when I listened

01:00:11.180 to it, I thought,

01:00:11.740 oh, God, can somebody

01:00:13.920 stop me before I start

01:00:16.120 sounding like an old

01:00:17.060 man who's lost it?

01:00:19.740 Because somebody, you

01:00:20.580 know, I thought somebody

01:00:21.440 needed to talk to him.

01:00:22.460 And I was trying to

01:00:23.120 figure out how old he

01:00:23.780 was and I thought,

01:00:25.220 just based on listening

01:00:26.660 to him, I thought,

01:00:28.000 mm-hmm, high 70s.

01:00:30.900 He looked like he's

01:00:31.600 in kind of good shape,

01:00:32.800 you know, maybe he

01:00:33.240 takes care of himself.

01:00:34.460 But I thought he's

01:00:35.280 probably 75, 76,

01:00:37.880 something like that.

01:00:39.200 And, you know, you

01:00:39.900 have to, I think,

01:00:41.620 forgive people for

01:00:42.640 being a little less

01:00:44.760 quick when they

01:00:47.340 reach that age.

01:00:49.000 Yeah, he was pretty

01:00:49.940 old.

01:00:50.420 So I looked up his

01:00:51.120 actual age.

01:00:52.600 He was 57.

01:00:53.420 So that was shocking.

01:00:56.560 I thought he was

01:00:57.740 closer to 75.

01:01:00.640 Yeah, that's what I

01:01:01.620 thought.

01:01:02.460 Because, you know,

01:01:03.080 I'm 65 and I thought,

01:01:04.480 well, I'm losing a step.

01:01:06.480 But he looked like he'd

01:01:07.900 lost a lot of steps.

01:01:09.980 You'd have to see it to

01:01:10.960 know what I'm talking

01:01:11.500 about.

01:01:12.740 But he also, he

01:01:15.340 criticized me for

01:01:16.200 calling the purebloods 1.00

01:01:18.860 anti-vaxxers.

01:01:21.300 And I'd like to

01:01:22.640 clarify, if you

01:01:24.160 will allow me to

01:01:24.960 clarify.

01:01:25.740 When I use the term

01:01:26.980 anti-vaxxer, I'm not

01:01:28.880 talking about all

01:01:29.560 vaccinations.

01:01:30.860 It's always in the

01:01:31.840 context of COVID.

01:01:33.420 I've never talked

01:01:34.380 about vaccinations

01:01:35.540 in general, ever.

01:01:38.300 And, in fact, a lot

01:01:39.300 of people said, Scott,

01:01:40.300 Scott, Scott, don't

01:01:41.000 throw us into the

01:01:41.800 anti-vax category

01:01:43.000 because we're only

01:01:44.880 concerned with the

01:01:46.880 COVID one.

01:01:49.120 And, in fact, our

01:01:50.180 kids are vaccinated

01:01:50.980 with the regular

01:01:51.720 vaccinations, but

01:01:52.520 they've been tested

01:01:53.260 in the normal way.

01:01:56.180 So, I wasn't aware

01:01:58.520 of this, but were

01:01:59.320 you aware that the

01:02:00.240 normal childhood

01:02:01.080 vaccinations have

01:02:02.120 been tested?

01:02:05.980 Because I thought

01:02:06.760 they weren't.

01:02:08.760 Have they been

01:02:09.480 tested, childhood

01:02:10.580 vaccinations?

01:02:12.980 Because I thought

01:02:13.700 they were only

01:02:14.840 tested individually.

01:02:15.840 but the way we

01:02:18.180 give them is

01:02:18.780 collectively, right?

01:02:20.120 We give, like, a

01:02:21.180 combined shot, but

01:02:22.960 that's never been

01:02:24.060 tested, has it?

01:02:25.120 The combined shot?

01:02:26.520 Or did they only

01:02:27.140 test them individually?

01:02:32.180 They tested some?

01:02:33.620 Yeah.

01:02:34.340 So, I don't know

01:02:35.520 much about the

01:02:36.320 ordinary vaccination

01:02:37.320 story, but I was

01:02:40.200 unaware that they've

01:02:41.120 tested them the way

01:02:42.040 they're given.

01:02:42.500 They were tested

01:02:44.280 individually, but I

01:02:45.940 don't think they

01:02:46.400 were tested the way

01:02:47.540 they're given, you

01:02:48.260 know, all at once.

01:02:49.420 Yeah, I think that's

01:02:50.520 RFK Jr.'s point.

01:02:52.360 I think Trump made

01:02:53.200 that point as well.

01:02:55.160 So, there are a lot

01:02:56.200 of people who are

01:02:56.700 happy with an

01:02:58.020 untested vaccination

01:02:59.240 for their children,

01:03:00.520 but they make a

01:03:01.440 distinction because the

01:03:02.360 mRNA is unknown.

01:03:03.680 So, they're more

01:03:06.240 comfortable with the

01:03:07.060 unknown of the

01:03:08.020 combined childhood

01:03:09.260 vaccination than the

01:03:10.820 unknown of the mRNA.

01:03:14.000 So, that seems

01:03:15.080 reasonable.

01:03:17.900 And, yes, we'll get

01:03:20.360 to some of your

01:03:20.900 points.

01:03:21.240 I see it going by.

01:03:22.720 All right.

01:03:23.040 So, the first thing

01:03:23.740 you need to know is

01:03:24.440 that when I talk about

01:03:25.220 the anti-vaxxers,

01:03:27.280 some are taking that

01:03:28.460 as I was making an

01:03:32.100 insult, but I'm not.

01:03:35.360 To me, the anti-vaxxers

01:03:36.760 were the people who

01:03:37.360 didn't want to take

01:03:37.920 the COVID vaccination

01:03:39.320 and got the right

01:03:40.580 answer.

01:03:41.580 And, if I had been

01:03:42.760 talking about all the

01:03:43.900 other people, I would

01:03:45.520 have included the fact

01:03:46.500 that there's some

01:03:48.200 question about whether

01:03:49.140 the childhood

01:03:49.820 vaccinations have been

01:03:50.920 tested the way they

01:03:52.560 should be tested, you

01:03:53.500 know, all together

01:03:54.160 instead of individually.

01:03:57.360 So, I'm not anti,

01:03:59.240 I'm not against

01:04:00.480 anti-vaxxers.

01:04:01.520 Does that make sense?

01:04:03.160 If this ever sounded

01:04:04.100 like I was, why would

01:04:06.560 I be?

01:04:07.500 It doesn't even make

01:04:08.280 sense that I would be.

01:04:11.200 All right.

01:04:12.960 What else did he say?

01:04:14.780 Oh, and then on the

01:04:16.000 Jimmy Dore show, they

01:04:17.020 speculated that the

01:04:18.860 reason I was so pro-

01:04:20.860 lockdown and pro- 0.65

01:04:22.020 vaccination, according to

01:04:24.520 them, not according to

01:04:25.860 anything I actually did

01:04:26.720 or said, but it's

01:04:28.280 because of my hatred

01:04:29.240 for Trump.

01:04:34.500 I'll just leave that

01:04:35.920 there for a moment.

01:04:37.220 Yeah.

01:04:37.660 So, after they had

01:04:38.540 analyzed me completely,

01:04:40.780 their bottom line was

01:04:42.320 that it could be the

01:04:43.880 reason I'm so wrong is

01:04:45.040 my hatred of Trump and

01:04:46.320 that that spread over

01:04:48.000 into me disliking my

01:04:51.300 entire audience.

01:04:52.120 So, but he's only 57.

01:04:58.380 Jimmy Dore's only 57.

01:04:59.980 Very surprising.

01:05:02.280 All right.

01:05:04.700 Now, a lot of you said

01:05:06.680 that the way you did your

01:05:08.280 analysis and your personal

01:05:10.000 research and assessment was

01:05:11.260 not just about the science.

01:05:12.760 Some of you were good at

01:05:14.500 that.

01:05:14.780 But they were good at not

01:05:16.440 trusting the people who

01:05:17.800 were withholding information

01:05:19.600 and making money and all

01:05:21.520 that.

01:05:21.980 But I think that argument

01:05:23.260 is one I've always agreed

01:05:25.760 with, right?

01:05:26.620 So the people who said all

01:05:28.200 the people who are making

01:05:29.180 the vaccination can't be

01:05:30.320 trusted, the government

01:05:31.300 can't be trusted, nobody

01:05:32.940 can be trusted.

01:05:33.720 I was always on that page.

01:05:35.400 I was only questioning the

01:05:36.880 long COVID.

01:05:38.440 And apparently you knew

01:05:40.200 that it wasn't a problem

01:05:41.080 for me because it wasn't a

01:05:44.120 problem for young people.

01:05:50.740 No mandatory shots, right?

01:05:52.420 Yeah, I've never been in

01:05:53.280 favor of any mandatory

01:05:54.240 shots, that's for sure.

01:06:00.300 Yeah.

01:06:00.980 Yeah, I actually led a

01:06:02.360 anti-mask movement, but

01:06:06.180 Jimmy Dore knows better.

01:06:09.680 He knows what I was really

01:06:10.580 thinking and doing.

01:06:11.320 But anyway, I would like to

01:06:14.920 push back on Jimmy's, oh,

01:06:18.160 and then there were also a

01:06:19.040 number of people who wanted

01:06:20.820 me to say that when I said

01:06:22.520 that the unvaxxed people

01:06:24.600 won, that they want me to

01:06:27.600 clarify that nobody won.

01:06:29.740 All right.

01:06:31.320 So the people who did not get

01:06:32.460 vaxxed do not want to be 1.00

01:06:34.300 labeled as winners because

01:06:37.120 that would make them seem

01:06:38.260 small as if, you know, they

01:06:40.180 didn't care about the people

01:06:41.220 who were, you know, who were

01:06:43.100 injured.

01:06:43.900 But of course they do care

01:06:45.000 about them.

01:06:46.060 And so I won't call it one.

01:06:47.600 I'll just say they were

01:06:48.420 right.

01:06:49.240 Is that better?

01:06:49.700 Now, oh, yeah, Alex

01:06:54.080 Berenson offered to talk to

01:06:57.260 me, to explain to me how he

01:07:00.580 got the right answer, and I

01:07:01.780 didn't.

01:07:03.140 Now, the last thing I'd like

01:07:05.600 to deal with is Jimmy Dore

01:07:07.760 thinks that I'm arrogant in

01:07:11.420 general, I think, but on this

01:07:12.800 topic.

01:07:13.240 I would like to defend myself

01:07:14.780 against that charge.

01:07:15.580 Does this look arrogant?

01:07:22.860 Does this seem arrogant?

01:07:25.900 Now, here's my argument.

01:07:29.660 If I were going to be

01:07:30.980 arrogant, I would act a little

01:07:33.320 differently. 0.95

01:07:35.460 Would you mind if I showed

01:07:37.020 you just, like, a fictional

01:07:39.200 version of what I would look

01:07:41.340 like if I were acting

01:07:42.240 arrogant?

01:07:43.940 Because then you can

01:07:44.880 contrast it to the way I am

01:07:46.240 acting.

01:07:47.360 So I'd like, with your

01:07:48.860 permission, I'm going to

01:07:50.380 model what it would have

01:07:51.860 looked like had I been

01:07:53.460 arrogant.

01:07:54.780 Okay? 0.98

01:07:56.080 You ready?

01:07:57.120 This is me doing an

01:07:58.260 impression of Scott if he

01:08:00.360 were arrogant.

01:08:03.620 Well, you looked at the 0.50

01:08:04.660 science and then you did

01:08:05.620 your own research.

01:08:08.440 Some people would say

01:08:09.440 there's a step missing in

01:08:12.880 in which the psychology

01:08:17.580 mattered.

01:08:19.760 I can't reach it.

01:08:21.120 I'm strapped into my

01:08:22.640 thing here.

01:08:27.080 But some would say that

01:08:29.060 the people who understand

01:08:30.940 persuasion would know that

01:08:33.140 this is nothing but

01:08:34.080 confirmation bias.

01:08:36.500 And so the people who said

01:08:37.880 they did this and then, you

01:08:39.440 know, trusted their gut

01:08:40.740 instinct, if I were

01:08:42.800 arrogant, I would say,

01:08:44.780 well, you've just 0.97

01:08:45.440 described the exact reason

01:08:47.420 that science was

01:08:48.280 invented.

01:08:49.700 Science was invented so

01:08:52.080 you wouldn't do this.

01:08:53.860 That was to prevent you

01:08:55.020 from doing this.

01:08:56.660 And this.

01:08:58.220 Because these are not

01:08:59.220 science.

01:09:00.920 Science is the solution

01:09:02.600 to doing this.

01:09:05.020 This would be the problem,

01:09:06.740 not the solution.

01:09:07.580 This would be everything

01:09:09.140 wrong, according to

01:09:11.280 somebody who understood

01:09:12.000 psychology.

01:09:16.040 Now, that would be

01:09:17.000 arrogant.

01:09:18.120 That would be messed up.

01:09:20.260 And that's why I don't do

01:09:21.120 that.

01:09:22.220 Instead, I say to the

01:09:24.820 people who got the

01:09:25.420 correct answer, it's

01:09:26.500 obvious that they used

01:09:27.360 the right process, and

01:09:29.240 that's the end of the

01:09:30.600 story.

01:09:31.440 And if they ignore the

01:09:32.800 biggest risk of long

01:09:34.260 COVID, it's not because I

01:09:37.560 know how to do things

01:09:38.480 right, and I include all

01:09:40.340 the risks, that would be

01:09:41.780 arrogant.

01:09:43.320 Instead, I learn from the 0.97

01:09:44.660 people who got it right,

01:09:46.180 and I try to improve my

01:09:47.820 game.

01:09:49.380 So don't let me be like

01:09:50.800 that, because that would 0.67

01:09:51.900 be arrogant. 0.82

01:09:54.240 No more arrogance.

01:09:55.580 We won't do that anymore.

01:09:57.040 And that, ladies and

01:09:57.780 gentlemen, brings me to the

01:09:58.860 end of my program for

01:10:00.380 YouTube.

01:10:00.900 I'm going to talk to the

01:10:01.900 locals people for a

01:10:02.940 minute.

01:10:03.920 Bye for now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 25, 2023

Episode 1999 Scott Adams： Documents Everywhere, Obesity Is A Bad Word, More Of Me Eating Crow

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