Episode 2011 Scott Adams： Killer Eggs, Romantic Robots, My Third Act, Madonna's Face, FBI vs America
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 13 minutes
Words per Minute
147.49048
Summary
What's wrong with Madonna? Is she on drugs? Is there something wrong with the Grammys? Or is it something else going on in the world? Find out on this morning's HAPPY BIRTHDAY WHO CARES!
Transcript
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Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of civilization.
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It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and there's never been a better time.
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If you'd like to upgrade your situation, all you need to make this moment one of the greatest
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moments of your entire life, all you need is a cupper mug or a glass of tank or a chalice
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or a sign, a canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.
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Fill it with your favorite liquid, I like coffee, and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure
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of the dopamine of the day, the thing that makes everything better.
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It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.
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Now, for you members of YouTube and anybody on the Locals platform who is just joining us,
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listen, if you had been a local subscriber this morning, and if you had been early onto
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the live stream, you would have had the pleasure of watching me destroy my printer on my hard
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There's not much left to it, but I think you'd like to, well, I won't show you what's left,
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but there's, I'm sort of sitting within a debris field here.
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I'm trying to figure out, because I'm not wearing shoes, I'm trying to figure out how
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to get out of the debris field when the live stream is over.
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I think I'm going to have to climb over my desk to go get some shoes to go clean up the
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Now, a lot of you are saying to yourself, Scott, do you have some kind of like terrible, I
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About 10 minutes ago, I had a hell of an anger problem.
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Now, a lot of people waste time going to anger management programs.
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No, just destroy the thing that's bothering you.
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But if it's an inanimate object, at some point, the correct answer is to destroy it on your
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I don't make the rules, that's just the only thing you can do that works.
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So today I'll be working from my notes on my phone, which won't be nearly as dynamic,
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The biggest story of the day is, what the hell's wrong with Madonna?
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What was the awards program that was on last night?
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If I'm the first one to make this joke, there's something wrong with the world.
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Some people said that the entire thing was satanic.
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I saw on social media today people saying that artist Sam Smith did some kind of satanic presentation.
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And the outfits did look like they came from the basement of some pizza parlor, if you know what I mean.
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And here's the thing that I, and then also one of the big applause scenes was apparently there was a, the first trans woman winner.
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And there was lots of clapping and people were quite happy about that.
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And I've got another story that's going to tie into that pretty well.
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And it doesn't look like somebody who's not on drugs.
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So I think, I think the people who are making fun of her physical appearance are sort of missing the plot.
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But the physical appearance is really an outcome of whatever else is going on.
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And I feel just, what I see is someone who can't be helped.
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This is one of those, this is one of those situations where it looks like, you know, we can't read minds.
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But she's in this extraordinarily unique situation where she can't be helped.
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And I feel like that's the fatal flaw of a lot of the celebrities who end up dead from overdoses and whatnot.
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And one of the reasons that I'm tuned into this is that I'm the, let's say, I'm the poor man's version of this.
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Who the hell is going to tell me what I should do when I'm 90 and I'm out of my freaking mind?
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So it doesn't matter how well-meaning or smart or helpful somebody is if you're not going to listen to them.
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What are the odds that I'm going to listen to somebody's advice when I'm 90?
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Assuming I still have assets and I can still live independently, I'm not going to take anybody's advice.
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So at the moment, I still have enough of my faculties that I know, oh, that sounds like good advice, then I'll incorporate that.
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But I don't think I'll be able to do that forever.
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So what the hell is going to happen to people like me?
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I'm going to have too much power relative to my sanity if I live long enough.
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So it is something I literally wonder how that's going to work out.
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All right, the other important issue of the day, there's nothing but important issues today.
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Eggs, are they the healthiest food you can eat, a great source of protein, or are they serial killers?
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And if you want to spell serial C-E-R, that would be sufficient pun for this morning.
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And so I did a Google search, because whatever Google decides to highlight feels like that's the official, what the government wants you to know.
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Because we've seen how much the FBI and Congress can influence all the social medias.
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So if Google summarizes one of the answers, and you know how Google summarizes some answers?
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If it's something that people ask a lot, they'll put a little category with their own official summary of the answer.
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Well, Google's official summary of the answer of whether eggs are dangerous for your health is that half an egg a day is associated with more deaths from heart disease, cancer, and all causes.
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If you eat half an egg a day, your odds of falling off a ladder apparently go through the roof.
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If you eat half an egg a day, the odds of being a victim of a drive-by shooting, way up.
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Your odds of dying on a trip to Mars, probably up as much as 24%.
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So that's what Google says, and you can certainly believe Google, because they're going to use science and stuff.
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So half an egg a day, it'll probably, it'll frickin' kill you.
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Or, or, as Ivor Cummins sent me in response to this tweet,
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the story of an 88-year-old man who ate 25 eggs a day for many, many years,
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and they studied him, and they studied him, and he had normal cholesterol.
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Now, I don't want to tell you that studying one 88-year-old man who eats 25 eggs a day is science.
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There could be individual differences, and, you know, maybe some people are just natural egg eaters or something.
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But are you blown away by the fact that we don't know if eggs are good for you or bad for you?
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Once you have that frame in your head of the pandemic and all the COVID mandates and stuff and the vaccines,
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even the egg looks like a COVID vaccination to me.
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Like, my head just can't get out of that model.
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or do you eat eggs and have a 24% greater chance of dying?
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Well, I have a suggested possibility, but we'll get to that.
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The only person I know who eats an egg by itself is this 88-year-old guy who eats 25 of them a day.
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I feel like the people who eat an egg a day are eating other stuff that has cholesterol in it.
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So, it might be a little hard to tease out just the egg part.
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Anyway, I have nothing to say about eggs except we don't know.
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The most important story of the day is that there's a company that's trying to roll out a chain of sex robot brothels.
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Now, if you think, well, that'll never work, it already did.
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And the reason that they want to do a chain of them is that the first one must have been a big hit.
00:12:02.280
If you're surprised by that, if you're surprised by that, you don't really understand men.
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If there are any women who don't understand why some number of men are, you know, happily going to sex robots,
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If you take a heterosexual man and put him in prison, how fast does he become flexible?
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When that person gets out of prison, are they heterosexual again?
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So, it turns out that men are very flexible when they have that one need that needs to get met.
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And so, they're trying to put one in Houston, which I think is the funniest thing.
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Of all the places you would put your sex robot brothel, I think Houston is the funniest.
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Now, what I love about this story is when people have to think too much.
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And one of the things that people have to think about is that our laws do not make it, well, in most cases,
00:13:14.760
I think most states it's legal for a human to get busy with, let's say, a sex toy.
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It just happens to look like a person and act like a person a little bit.
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So, I think this is going to be a big hit if it's legal, but why, let me ask you,
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do you think it should be illegal for a human to have sex with a robot?
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What happens if it eliminates reproductive processes?
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See, I think we're going to get pushed into a situation where our reproduction rate is so low
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huh, maybe part of the reason the reproduction rate is too low is because of the alternatives.
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We're going to have to get rid of the sex robots so that people want to reproduce.
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I was reading, even today, the article that was about the sex robot brothels.
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You would not be surprised to hear that the journalist, and I won't even name him,
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the journalist seemed to be sneering in his attitude about the people who would be robosexuals.
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People who like robots as their sexual preference?
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I'm going to coin the term if nobody's already done it.
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Robosexuals are now the one sexual preference category that you can,
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well, I think maybe the furriest people still make fun of.
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But there are some groups you can still make fun of.
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And so articles about the sex robot brothels, definitely you're going to throw some shade on the customers, don't you think?
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Don't you think the customers are going to get a little shade every time they talk about it?
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And do you think there will be a point where those customers organize and insist that they add the R for robosexual to the LBGTQ plus blockchain?
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Because now the whole LBGTQ thing has become like a blockchain, where you never destroy the history, so it'll always be at least LBGTQ, but now we're adding letters to it as we find more discriminated classes.
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And I think the robosexuals are going to have to add an R.
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So someday, God willing, the Grammys will not just be about your grandmother, but will also be a robosexual winning an award, and people will cheer.
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You're so brave to have sex with robots and be out of the closet.
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The GOP apparently have decided that in their gun control debate that they're having right now, that many of them are wearing an AR-15 pin instead of the American flag pin, which they often wear.
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I don't know what percentage you're wearing it.
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Here's how you analyze it from a persuasion perspective.
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How many extra votes will the Republicans get because they wore a gun on their lapel?
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You know, no matter how low your opinion of people in Congress, I believe, because I have faith in them,
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almost nobody has ever based a vote on somebody's lapel pin.
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It created a whole new cycle which makes Republicans look like the real issue is love of guns as opposed to love of the Constitution and America.
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The flag pin says, I like everything America stands for, and that includes the Second Amendment prominently.
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The American flag is the exact logo for the Second Amendment.
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As soon as you make it about the gun, you lost the argument.
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You come to me and say, I want guns to be legal because I love my gun so much I'm wearing it as clothing.
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But if you bring me the American flag, you high-grounded me.
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You can't get higher than, you know, nationalism within the country.
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Okay, so here's my prediction, which can be, I guess, falsified.
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I don't know the answer to this, and you might already.
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So I promise you I don't already know the answer.
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It might be a public record, but I haven't seen it.
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I predict that Matt Gaetz will not wear that lapel pin.
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And the prediction is based on the fact that he's playing at a higher level of understanding of persuasion.
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I cannot wrap my head around the possibility that Matt Gaetz would be dumb enough to wear the lapel pin instead of the American flag pin, which is obviously the right answer.
00:19:41.160
Now, somebody go check that, because probably we'll know.
00:19:45.480
You know, the news will probably cover who wore it and who didn't.
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But my prediction is he's operating at a higher level and would not fall for that ridiculous, bad imagery.
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So now you have something you can test and call me wrong about.
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Let's talk about Jonathan Turley, who you should be following.
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He's talking about how the House Select Committee is holding his first.
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So he's got an article in The Hill and also on his own website.
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So the Republicans now, with their new majority in the House, are going to be looking into the weaponization of government, as they like to say.
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And it's a variety of things, but one of the things we're looking into is the FBI influencing social media.
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And we know at this point, we know that the FBI really, really have their finger all over Twitter, possibly legally.
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You know, if all of that was legal, and I think it might have been.
00:21:15.720
But one of the things that Turley said in his article, I had been struggling to communicate, and I'd failed completely.
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And he nails it, which is why you should follow him.
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He has a uniquely good ability to write and just put things into simple terms.
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He said, for years, many politicians and pundits have dismissed free speech concerns.
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I was thinking of this FBI talking to a Twitter thing.
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They've dismissed free speech concerns by noting that the First Amendment only applies to the government.
00:21:52.480
So long as corporations do the censoring they contend, it is not a free speech problem.
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And then Turley says, this obviously is wrong on several fronts.
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Now, here he does a better job of making this point than I have, ref.
00:22:08.920
He said, the First Amendment is not the exclusive measure of free speech.
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Corporate censorship of political commentaries or news stories are denials of free speech that harm our democratic system.
00:22:20.740
And I'm thinking, why did I struggle so much to say this simple thing?
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Like, this is exactly my point, which I've never said clearly, which is that the First Amendment is not the only measure of free speech.
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Because free speech is not just a thing we put in the Constitution.
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Everything we do that's right comes from free speech.
00:23:05.760
So, I don't know why it took Turley to explain my own opinion to me.
00:23:11.220
But when you see it, this one sentence is just perfect.
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The First Amendment is not the exclusive measure of free speech.
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Because if he said it almost any other way, it wouldn't have hit as well.
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So, that's a really high level of writing skill.
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Even if you didn't like his opinions, you should follow him as a writer.
00:23:52.340
Turkey, the country, has had an enormous earthquake.
00:24:02.980
The pictures from over there are just insanely bad.
00:24:05.720
But one picture really caught my attention, which is somehow there are a bunch of smartphone videos of a 10-story building that was...
00:24:18.920
It looked like it was completely intact and then just dissolved into the, you know, into the basement.
00:24:25.540
And they got that from the moment before it happened until it was gone.
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And I looked at that and I said to myself, now, somehow they probably knew it was weakened.
00:24:37.280
They might have known it was weakened by the earthquake.
00:24:40.200
But I didn't see any obvious signs of weakness.
00:24:46.580
And I'll tell you, I have never been more thankful for government building codes.
00:24:57.620
Like, looking for the, you know, the positive and the tragedy here.
00:25:00.540
That building would not have collapsed in America.
00:25:05.020
There are probably almost no buildings in an earthquake zone, anyway, left in America that would have collapsed like that.
00:25:17.980
It looks like it was, you know, it might have been 40, 50 years old, but it was, you know, in modern times.
00:25:26.320
Yeah, every once in a while you just have to say, yeah, your government may be doing a lot of terrible things, and they are.
00:25:38.640
You know, I think, I believe that we should have a federal building code.
00:25:44.640
I think states should have their own building code, but there should be a higher level one, a federal one.
00:25:50.800
And the federal one should allow for more experimental stuff.
00:25:54.880
You know, people want to experiment a little bit, but the local zoning codes are a little restrictive.
00:25:59.140
If you had one good, tight federal one, so somebody could say, look, I'm either going to follow all the local ones, or I have an exception, so the exception will allow me to do just the federal one.
00:26:12.640
Now, the federal one would still have all the good stuff in it.
00:26:20.420
But you'd still have to, you know, earthquake-proof it and, you know, do your best to make it safe.
00:26:26.640
But it's hard to sell because, you know, it just looks like it's regulations on top of regulations, when in fact it would be the opposite.
00:26:35.660
All right, so I saw a tweet this morning from Senator John Cornyn about the health impacts of weed.
00:26:47.680
So there's, you know, there continue to be more stories about the good and bad of weed, legalization and use.
00:27:02.200
We can't really measure the risk of either the benefits or the costs.
00:27:10.400
So, and the reason we don't know is that the tests seem to be all over the place.
00:27:18.200
You know, there'd be a test that people are getting more sickness, but then somebody will check the mortality and they find it's the same.
00:27:27.320
You know, could it be true that more people smoke weed, get emphysema, and yet the death rate is the same as everybody else?
00:27:35.680
It could be because maybe weed is giving some benefits to some types of people while being worse for other types of people.
00:27:47.400
We, we as a human species, we like to treat mental health and physical health like they're two separate things.
00:27:58.100
You know, if you have bad mental health, you're just as unhappy, just as crippled as if you had some physical problem.
00:28:06.140
So, if you, if you look at mental health and physical health as one ball, how do you measure the people who are benefiting from weed?
00:28:17.380
Because surely there's, you know, surely some people are worse off smoking marijuana.
00:28:39.860
Would you also accept the possibility that some people, and it might be a very small set of people, some people are better off.
00:28:47.640
Let's say some people, you know, they don't have to worry about their career for whatever reason.
00:28:53.200
Maybe they're independently wealthy or they're an artist like me.
00:28:56.760
And they, you know, don't operate heavy equipment and their family doesn't care and it's legal in their state.
00:29:04.500
And so you can imagine, you can imagine a special case where somebody's better off, you know, mentally especially.
00:29:13.820
And you can imagine a case where people are worse off.
00:29:17.620
But how, how would you, so how do you make a law?
00:29:21.820
This is the same problem that I note with guns.
00:29:24.780
When we, when we have the gun control debate, it's all stupid.
00:29:32.920
Here's the only thing you need to know about guns.
00:29:35.760
They make some people safer and they make some people less safe.
00:29:45.240
And, and we're all lying when we talk about guns, unless you say that.
00:29:50.740
Unless you say what I just said, you're just lying.
00:29:52.760
Here's the lie that one of those two conditions, either guns are legal or they're restricted.
00:30:00.600
The lie is that one of those is the better of a situation.
00:30:12.280
Now, I understand the arguments that even if it's bad for people, you know, you want that right because it protects the country and whatnot.
00:30:23.640
If you can't say directly, you know, gun, gun freedom is good for some people and it's definitely bad for other people.
00:30:32.860
But there might be one argument where it's good for everybody.
00:30:37.260
And this is one where we all go stupid or, or we go Democrat.
00:30:43.660
The Democrats are just stupid about guns because they don't understand how they would have any impact in keeping America free.
00:30:50.400
With my audience, I don't even need to explain that, do I?
00:30:56.580
Because, because they always say, well, what's your AR-15 going to do against my, you know, my jets and my nuclear weapons?
00:31:03.900
And, you know, I'm not going to go through the whole explanation again, how those guns would not be used against your nuclear weapons.
00:31:13.680
Ask the police how well they do in a fight against their own citizens.
00:31:20.520
Because, because you can't have a, you know, big old fascist organization unless you own the police.
00:31:36.840
The police would be, if the police decided to join the fascists,
00:31:42.000
the citizens would surround the police department and light it up.
00:31:51.020
And you would have local control because you would have wiped out the police.
00:31:55.140
Assuming the police became fascist somewhat instantly.
00:31:58.420
And I don't think the police would become the fascists.
00:32:05.080
You know, I don't, I don't think our police are, are like, you know, this close to becoming fascists.
00:32:09.660
I think they're this close to becoming on the side of Americans.
00:32:15.720
Because that's, you know, largely that's how they were trained.
00:32:19.360
So anyway, the gun control debate, I consider it a phony debate because the things we talk about are just pure bullshit.
00:32:26.140
You know, it's just people not understanding how guns would protect the country.
00:32:31.900
And people not understanding that the guns are good for some people, definitely, on average, right?
00:32:37.920
And bad for some people, definitely, definitely.
00:32:41.380
So if you know it's good for some people and bad for some people, how do you make the decision?
00:32:47.660
The way I would make the decision in this context, because you can't weigh those two things and it's different groups, etc.,
00:32:54.040
is I would, I would go to the higher level of liberty, exactly.
00:33:01.140
And I think, you know, I wouldn't say that that's based on logic or science,
00:33:05.940
but it's certainly based on a preference for how civilization should be organized.
00:33:14.440
My preference is if you can't agree on the details, you default to liberty.
00:33:21.580
If you can't agree on the cost-benefit, default to freedom.
00:33:27.260
That feels like the process, it just makes more sense.
00:33:32.460
But you won't see that argument, because it makes sense.
00:33:37.080
So when I talked about the documentary effect, where all documentaries are persuasive, even if they shouldn't be,
00:33:43.660
Elon Musk commented on it and agreed with, you know, that being a risk in other things as well.
00:33:55.040
So if you wondered what does an Elon Musk comment on your tweet do for you, two million views.
00:34:06.660
Now, I just have to say something about this whole Internet Dad thing.
00:34:13.420
You know, I've talked before, and again, Internet Dad is, you know, is inclusive of all genders and non-binaries and everything.
00:34:20.820
So the dad thing is just sort of a shorthand for an adult who is taking some responsibility, I guess.
00:34:28.640
Now, I think that this whole dad effect is the biggest unreported power shift in the country.
00:34:38.240
The number of kids who were influenced by Andrew Tate is huge.
00:34:47.680
Whatever you want to say about him, his influence was huge.
00:34:50.980
You know, Jordan Peterson, his influence, huge.
00:35:01.820
But in this case, because one Internet Dad agreed with the point, two million people saw it, and it's two million people who would follow Elon Musk.
00:35:14.980
So it's, you know, a certain type of, you know, let's say more informed, you know, people running the country kind of people.
00:35:23.200
So every time you see this effect, just watch how it's getting bigger.
00:35:29.120
And I would also argue that we're either at or near the point where if the people I call the Internet Dads, and you know who they are, right?
00:35:39.000
You can make your own list of the people who are somewhat independent, and they talk about political stuff and social stuff.
00:35:46.180
And they're not going to just come down on one side all the time.
00:35:52.940
And I think that group is just getting more and more powerful because other groups are harder to trust.
00:36:01.000
The Internet Dads, I honestly think, are mostly in it for the right reason.
00:36:09.360
Would you agree that, you know, make your own list, mental list of who the Internet Dads are.
00:36:13.900
And again, you could add women and LGBTQ and robosexuals and non-binaries.
00:36:21.020
By the way, why do the non-binaries not get an N?
00:36:35.000
Yeah, Joe Rogan would be one of the Internet Dads.
00:36:41.760
All right, we have reached Act 3 in Scott's public performance.
00:36:51.400
Does everybody know what public performance I've been putting on for the last, I don't know, few weeks?
00:36:57.400
So it's about the pandemic and the so-called COVID shots.
00:37:07.760
So in the third act, Scott is wildly criticized by all of his critics.
00:37:29.560
Now, in a movie, the third act is where the protagonist, the subject of the movie,
00:37:35.180
is in such a problem that that person cannot possibly get out of that problem.
00:37:41.240
The viewer of this movie says, ah, there's no way to get out of that.
00:37:46.280
But then, as if by magic, the protagonist escapes.
00:37:59.020
See, you were just getting all mad because you were watching the first part of the movie.
00:38:04.700
If it's just the first part, that would just make you mad.
00:38:09.820
But we're reaching the part where I try to escape from the third act trap.
00:38:15.520
And comic Dave Smith, who may or may not have some disagreements with me on long COVID,
00:38:26.160
I asked him how he calculated the risk of long COVID.
00:38:30.620
And by the way, that is the solution to the third act.
00:38:43.480
And the question that we're trying to settle is,
00:38:49.180
did the people who got the right answer about the COVID shots,
00:38:53.240
did they use a better process, a rational process that is superior to mine?
00:38:59.260
If they did, then we should learn from them, especially I should learn from them.
00:39:14.240
And after they defended themselves, I followed up with one question.
00:39:23.000
So, comic Dave Smith had a podcast, which I tweeted, and you can search for it.
00:39:31.440
and you could add my name if you want to see the episode.
00:39:33.720
I don't know why people still say, here's the URL.
00:39:40.980
Isn't it easier just to say, just Google these terms, if it works every time?
00:39:46.020
I mean, if you Google comic Dave Smith and Scott Adams,
00:39:54.820
But nine minutes in, he and his co-host talk about how they handled the long COVID calculation.
00:40:07.780
If they used a rational process to look at all the risks and all the upside and downside,
00:40:14.300
even if they calculated it wrong, I would say that's a rational process.
00:40:21.360
Because you could make a, you know, you could have bad data or something.
00:40:26.600
And my line for rational is if you simply considered all of the costs and all the benefits.
00:40:33.960
If there was a big cost or a big benefit that you just ignored, I would call that guessing.
00:40:42.400
In other words, if you thought, if you pretended you were doing a rational process,
00:40:46.200
but one of the biggest parts of the decision you just ignored, that's just guessing.
00:40:54.780
Because you're guessing that the biggest variable doesn't matter.
00:40:59.280
So, comic Dave Smith and his co-host actually argued that the only thing you needed to know
00:41:05.380
was that the government was completely, let's say, not trustworthy.
00:41:15.600
If you're only looking at if the government is not trustworthy,
00:41:19.260
you would have to say the government has never made a correct decision
00:41:22.980
and there's never been a pharmaceutical drug they approved that was good for you.
00:41:30.940
Would anybody say that every drug approved by the government is bad for you?
00:41:35.480
There's some chance that the government approves something that's good for you, right?
00:41:40.400
I completely buy into the, don't trust the government when they're rushed.
00:41:46.280
Don't trust the government when lots of money is involved.
00:41:49.160
Don't trust them when they show you their work and they say, it looks sketchy.
00:41:53.080
Don't trust the government when they say, we'll let big pharma hide their data for 75 years.
00:41:59.080
Don't trust the government when they say, it usually takes 5 to 10 years to know,
00:42:04.100
but this time we did it in 6 months or a year or whatever, right?
00:42:07.440
So, Dave goes through all those reasons why you should not trust the government.
00:42:17.180
And here's how you know that people are hallucinating about me.
00:42:25.580
Who in the world would believe that I trusted scientists or the government?
00:42:34.840
They just took their best shot based on what they knew and what they didn't know.
00:42:38.680
So, comic Dave Smith admits that he looked at the distrust of government as his primary decision-making thing.
00:42:47.860
And when it came to long COVID, they said he believes it's a very low risk and impossible to calculate.
00:42:55.920
So, what do you do when you believe something's a very low risk?
00:43:05.280
He basically argued in public that he didn't know that one of the biggest factors, so he acted like it doesn't exist.
00:43:16.200
And he said he thought the risk was similar to getting hit by lightning.
00:43:21.160
And if something is a very low risk, if something's a very low risk, it's reasonable to ignore it.
00:43:43.960
So, we're trying to compare a low risk of vaccine injury to a low risk of COVID injury to a low risk of COVID death.
00:43:54.320
So, his argument is that one of them is low risk, so you can't count it.
00:44:08.460
That's just a guess, because you don't know, so you just guessed.
00:44:17.100
Now, do you think he would be the only person to take the same tact to explain that the government should not have been trusted, and somehow, and here's the logic gap, somehow, I'm an educated, well-informed person.
00:44:33.060
And I'm the only person in the world who didn't understand that the government shouldn't be completely trusted in this context.
00:44:44.500
Who would believe that I'm an educated, well-informed person, but I'm the only person in the country who missed the fact when every day I talk about the government lying to us?
00:45:02.180
For about an hour a day, I spend some of that hour talking about how the government can't be trusted.
00:45:12.980
Do I not spend every day in public telling you the government can't be trusted?
00:45:18.620
And do I say that data on studies can totally be trusted?
00:45:27.580
I've told you that you can't trust any of the data about the pandemic.
00:45:33.380
But being the most skeptical person you've ever met,
00:45:36.500
comic Dave Smith's best theory about why my opinion differs from him is that I didn't pay attention to anything that happened in the last two years.
00:45:49.800
That's his working assumption, is that I missed all of it, uniquely.
00:45:57.600
And that if I'd paid more attention to one side of the argument, just one side of it, I could have gotten the right answer like he did.
00:46:06.100
But what I did was make the terrible mistake, apparently, of looking at all the risks and realizing that they were uncalculable.
00:46:13.660
And therefore, if you can't calculate the risks, you're guessing.
00:46:22.540
Comic Dave Smith says, if you can't calculate the risks, you're making a good decision by ignoring them.
00:46:32.660
Now, here's something that I should say more often.
00:46:41.220
If you're an expert, you know, let's say you have some experience in decision making,
00:46:45.680
you would say that looks crazy and irrational, right?
00:46:50.520
And I would guess that 100% of the engineers are saying that right now.
00:47:10.280
I, too, have learned how to compare things without leaving stuff out.
00:47:14.720
I've spent years of, you know, both educational attainment and, you know, corporate experience of knowing what not to leave out.
00:47:23.880
So there's nothing wrong with comic Dave Smith's brain.
00:47:31.160
He's a very smart guy who apparently cares a great deal about his country and the people in it.
00:47:45.740
The more Dave Smith's you have, the better the country is.
00:47:48.980
I said the same thing about, you know, Brett and Heather.
00:47:52.580
So I don't have to agree with them to say that they're adding value.
00:48:01.280
I think their disagreement with me enhances all of your knowledge.
00:48:06.620
Because it, you know, inspires me to make my argument better, right?
00:48:13.660
You're actually seeing the best part of America right now.
00:48:19.920
Nobody stopped, you know, Adam from saying, I'm sorry, Dave Smith from saying what he was saying.
00:48:27.740
Nobody stopped me from saying what I was saying.
00:48:39.720
And there was another article that made exactly the same point, that you can ignore the biggest risk if you can't calculate it.
00:48:53.100
You will see journalists, comedian, and entertainers say it.
00:49:04.000
Specifically, a data engineer named Joe Moore, who is also a real good follow on Twitter.
00:49:12.600
And he often comes into my Twitter feed to teach people how to think.
00:49:23.100
He is simply somebody who has learned how to compare things.
00:49:27.620
And when people don't do it right, he goes into the comments and teaches them.
00:49:34.900
He says, Scott's position is, now remember, he's a data engineer.
00:49:39.800
So he's trained to know how to make these decisions.
00:49:43.300
Scott's position is it's impossible to know the right decision.
00:49:46.100
And the podcast dudes, that was Dave Smith and his co-host, mock him and say it's impossible to know the risk of long COVID.
00:50:02.000
Now, again, these are smart people who are, you know, high-functioning people in society, well-meaning.
00:50:14.240
There's nothing wrong with the fact that you don't know how to do stand-up comedy.
00:50:31.660
Second tweet, he says, Scott isn't calling anyone wrong.
00:50:34.920
Never, in terms of whether they got vaccinated or not.
00:50:39.080
I've never said, I've never criticized any individual decision.
00:50:45.260
So he says, Scott isn't calling anyone wrong, specifically about the vaccination.
00:50:49.700
I am calling people wrong about the decision-making.
00:50:54.380
Dave admitted he couldn't calculate long COVID, and so he ignored it.
00:51:02.400
He says, all the bad stuff, speaking about the pandemic, has low odds.
00:51:10.100
He goes, 1%, 1 in 1,000, 1 in 100,000, 1 in 1 million.
00:51:15.700
Which number is the vax risk, and which is the long COVID risk?
00:51:27.840
Like, the difference between 1%, or 1 in 1,000, or 1 in 1 million,
00:51:41.660
If he saw three statistics, would he know which one's the long COVID,
00:51:56.020
I'm going to do something that I thought long and hard about,
00:52:02.080
But I'm going to do it here in public, because there's a benefit to it.
00:52:08.800
I'm going to teach our politicians and our corporate leaders how to identify a fang fang,
00:52:21.400
who is trying to befriend you the way fang fang befriended Swalwell.
00:52:31.800
Now, there is a pattern that you can identify them.
00:52:37.640
Now, I don't know anything about how fang fang infiltrated the Swalwell organization,
00:52:43.540
but he was a councilman in a smallish town, mid-sized town.
00:52:53.920
Now, the first thing you need to know is that they try to influence people early on in their career.
00:53:06.300
I got a text the other day that is either a scam.
00:53:15.700
It's either a scam, or it's a fang fang Chinese spy
00:53:21.140
who is trying to get to me while I'm still in my, let's say, not too influential stage.
00:53:27.220
Now, I'm not going to claim this as an actual spy contact, right?
00:53:33.420
If the FBI wants the phone number that it came from, I'd be happy to give it to them.
00:53:42.860
What if the number that texted me is already known as a Chinese spy?
00:53:50.100
Because I feel like we probably know some of them, don't we?
00:53:54.320
You know, don't we have ways to identify who the spies are?
00:54:02.960
then there's a good chance that the FBI is already looking at all of my private conversations.
00:54:15.780
If they knew for sure that a spy was contacting me,
00:54:21.180
wouldn't they have access to all of my private communications?
00:54:29.320
And if they don't already, they're going to have it now.
00:54:39.700
Now, they don't even need to know for sure that it's a spy, right?
00:54:45.640
and then they could look at all of the spies' communications,
00:54:49.200
but also the communications of anybody they contacted.
00:54:57.980
Now, here's a little rule that I would like to teach you.
00:55:09.380
We don't live in a system where anybody has privacy.
00:55:13.900
The only way that you can stay safe is to be uninteresting,
00:55:20.180
But the government always had the ability to, you know,
00:55:30.840
That's one thing we learned from the FISA stuff.
00:55:34.360
They need anything that a judge would look at on a piece of paper
00:55:40.800
I don't have time to look into it, but if you say.
00:55:45.080
So I'm going to read you the contact as it happened,
00:55:48.040
and then I'm going to teach you how to identify
00:56:01.280
I'm not a spy, but don't ask me how I know that.
00:56:17.480
The first text came in, and it was only a phone number,
00:56:34.640
Would you like to eat Korean barbecue together?
00:56:38.600
Now, I often get spammy things, and I get scammers.
00:56:54.620
because I ignore all the things that look like they're not for me,
00:57:04.000
Are you really busy that you don't have time to reply to my message?
00:57:12.740
Now, the first thing you need to know is that a spy
00:57:25.320
And the first thing they asked about was Korean barbecue.
00:57:28.840
Now, nobody who knows me well would invite me to a Korean barbecue,
00:57:35.680
So there's nobody who would casually ask me to lunch for a Korean barbecue.
00:57:44.060
So I replied, thinking that there was some possibility
00:57:53.280
I didn't want to ruin her day in case it's just a friend they're trying to catch up with.
00:58:01.140
Obviously, no one who knows me, based on the message.
00:58:05.280
And then it comes back, and the message says, it's me.
00:58:07.800
And I won't say the name, just on the off chance that it's a real person.
00:58:15.140
Asian as in somebody not born in this country, maybe.
00:58:18.780
Or maybe a second generation person with an Asian sounding name.
00:58:37.100
But there's some possibility, some small possibility,
00:58:41.040
it's like a real person who has a wrong phone number.
00:59:05.080
So now I've just closed, I've closed the circuit.
00:59:10.260
Everything this person needs to know is now known.
00:59:17.700
Now, if it's a real woman, what would that real woman do next?
00:59:44.740
Next message was, oh, I input the wrong number.
01:00:21.040
As soon as this question was asked, we can now eliminate real person.
01:00:27.880
We've eliminated the possibility it's a real person.
01:00:30.500
Because zero real people who are women follow up with a man that they don't even know his name.
01:01:00.060
So I'm giving her a reason why she would have asked the question.
01:01:05.240
Maybe that's how you got the wrong phone number.
01:01:08.040
And then she answers, yeah, he is my childhood friend.
01:01:13.000
But we used to study together when we were in Hong Kong.
01:01:17.780
Used to study together when they were in Hong Kong.
01:01:21.300
Now, what information do I have about this person so far?
01:01:29.860
I know that they have an Asian, some kind of connection to Asia.
01:01:34.120
I know that they're young enough that they're talking about studying together in Hong Kong.
01:01:41.460
So the age of the person is sort of not too long after college.
01:01:47.780
So she's sort of identifying herself in her 20s-ish, probably.
01:01:56.160
Now, why would you say you studied in Hong Kong?
01:02:00.660
Do a lot of people internationally travel to Hong Kong just to study, or did they?
01:02:05.200
Or is it the safest way to say you're a Chinese resident?
01:02:11.880
Because, so I said, after she said, yeah, he was my childhood friend, but we used to study together when we were in Hong Kong.
01:02:26.620
I'm a stranger who did not need to know anything about Jessie or anything about their history.
01:02:33.200
This is clearly a tell that something scammy is going on, right?
01:02:38.280
So I try to close it down, but really I'm testing to see if she stops, right?
01:02:43.620
So it looks like I'm trying to close the conversation, but I wasn't.
01:02:46.740
So what I was trying to do is close it in a way that any normal person would be done, but I wanted to see if there was more.
01:02:55.060
So I said, good luck finding him, exclamation mark.
01:03:09.820
I'd already checked the area code and it was from Massachusetts, but it says, you know, that doesn't mean anything.
01:03:17.240
And then the next text, and I don't even answer.
01:03:29.660
Like, why would she ask a stranger whose name she doesn't even know if I've been to Florida?
01:03:42.800
And then I text, are you Chinese by citizenship?
01:04:00.180
So the Asian friend thing suggests it could be just a scam, you know, not necessarily a spy.
01:04:06.720
So my next message was, is your name Fang Fang, LOL?
01:04:12.560
And she responds, nope, haha, I'm, and then she tells her name, first and last name that are Chinese sounding.
01:04:20.780
And then you can call me, blah, blah, blah, my first name.
01:04:31.800
You look for an accidental meeting that looks accidental, might not be accidental.
01:04:40.240
In Swalwell's case, it was probably somebody who joined his campaign, and it looked like somebody who just liked his politics.
01:04:48.320
You also want to look out for the flattery and the flirting that's out of context.
01:04:58.500
No woman flirts with a man she knows nothing about that she called by accident.
01:05:05.280
So the reason that that would work with anyone is that men will believe anything if it's a compliment to them.
01:05:15.640
If you tell a man that the most beautiful woman in the world is maybe flirting with him, the first thing he's going to think is maybe she is.
01:05:28.200
So flattery, accidental meeting, and then following up too much, way too much interest, giving too much information.
01:05:37.840
In this case, she started early by mentioning Hong Kong and studying.
01:05:42.200
The Hong Kong thing, I believe, was to prime me so that once I found out, if I did, that she was a Chinese citizen, she would have a reason to explain that she's one of the good ones.
01:05:56.640
Because if you were a Hong Kong resident before China took over, well, yeah, maybe you're a Chinese resident now, but you were one of the freedom ones.
01:06:05.960
You weren't necessarily one of the communist ones.
01:06:08.420
I don't think it's a coincidence that she mentioned Hong Kong to, you know, right off the bat, to be able to frame herself as one of the good Chinese citizens.
01:06:21.760
I'm not saying anything except the government of China has issues.
01:06:30.240
So, look for the person who's willing to admit they're a Chinese, I imagine that Fang Fang was very open about her connections to China, just guessing.
01:06:44.860
And that she probably had a whole explanation of a backstory that would make her look like she was safe.
01:06:53.200
Now, how many of you would have recognized this as a potential Chinese spy?
01:07:00.940
How many of you would have thought potential spy?
01:07:11.980
Now, how many of you think that somebody at my level of, I don't know, public exposure would be approached by a Chinese spy?
01:07:25.620
Yeah, I would imagine that a lot of people who talk about politics on both sides have had maybe a casual contact with somebody who acted a little friendly.
01:07:47.560
It could have been just a, you know, a romance scam kind of a thing.
01:08:04.520
Like, all I thought about it was, oh, this is creepy.
01:08:39.160
But I don't know what a top secret would be in this context.
01:08:44.700
So, if it had been, if I had taken it further, I could find out for sure.
01:08:52.340
If it was a money scam, the way it would work out is, oh, you know, I can't get a hold of Jesse, but I'd love to visit California.
01:09:01.500
And then see if she could get me to say, you know, I'm single.
01:09:10.140
And then, and if it's a scam, then the next thing would happen is she'd say, okay, I'm booking my flight, but my credit card got stolen.
01:09:20.660
So, I can't book the flight, and there's only an hour left to get this price.
01:09:24.900
If I don't know what to do, I guess I can't come.
01:09:26.940
And that's when I'm supposed to offer, oh, but you could temporarily use my credit card and then pay me back.
01:09:36.140
So, if she, if I had made plans to see her because I believe she was just sort of interested in me against all odds,
01:09:44.300
at some point, there would be an emergency on her end that required immediate funding to make the trip.
01:09:52.380
If that didn't happen, and she actually flew all the way out here, funded it herself, and said, oh, I have a job.
01:10:23.300
You had a fake person calling saying they knew you.
01:10:33.040
I saw a pickup line that somebody on Instagram was saying was a pickup line.
01:10:42.740
As soon as I heard it, I thought, that is the most persuasive pickup line I have ever heard.
01:10:48.480
You walk up to somebody at, let's say, let's say it's a business event, but you're definitely in flirting mode.
01:11:00.340
It's a social event, and you walk up to somebody, or maybe it's not.
01:11:06.120
And a man says to the woman, there's no reason for you to look this good today.
01:11:30.360
There's no reason for you to look this good today.
01:11:33.180
And it's completely different than just giving a compliment.
01:11:36.000
If you walked up and say, you look beautiful, I just had to tell you.
01:11:40.300
But if you walk up and you criticize her for looking better than she needs to, that's totally different.
01:11:47.280
That's like the negging, the so-called insult compliment is built into the first sentence.
01:11:53.680
You don't have a reason to do it, meaning that your brain isn't working right.
01:12:02.440
If you do it with a smile, and, you know, I think the person would get that you're just being clever.
01:12:16.860
And then get another compliment, blah, blah, blah, blah.
01:12:26.960
Sharon, you don't seem like a good person, so we'll get rid of you.
01:12:47.200
There's not much happening in Ukraine, is there?
01:12:51.020
Except people lying about what's happening in Ukraine.
01:12:53.380
I think someday is the only lesson about Ukraine that I'll give you.
01:13:03.820
The only lesson is that I don't believe anything that comes out of Ukraine.
01:13:14.220
I'm going to talk to the locals' people a little bit more.