Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 2049 Scott Adams： Reaper vs Russia, Not Hiring Pronoun People, Avoid The Woke, Dodd-Frank

00:00:00.000 Good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of civilization it's called Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:09.120 There's never been a finer moment in the history of all time since the Big Bang.

00:00:14.320 But if you'd like to, see if you can take that up a notch, and I think we can.

00:00:18.260 I think we can bump it up a little bit.

00:00:20.120 All you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or chalice or stein, a canteen, jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:26.280 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:28.200 I like coffee.

00:00:28.940 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine today, the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:35.260 It's called the simultaneous sip.

00:00:40.300 It happens now.

00:00:41.140 I can't read comments and do this at the same time.

00:00:43.760 Go.

00:00:48.940 No, to answer your question in the comments, I'm very much not suicidal.

00:00:54.240 I'm very much not.

00:00:55.420 I know it doesn't seem like this from the outside, but I'm not having a bad week.

00:01:05.320 I know that people think I am, that I'm supposed to be suffering, but it's just not working out that way.

00:01:11.640 I'm not entirely sure why.

00:01:13.140 I mean, some of it is I just like to focus on the future.

00:01:16.900 Some of it is I like change.

00:01:19.400 I do like change.

00:01:21.380 Sometimes.

00:01:23.360 Anyway, we'll get back to that.

00:01:25.100 Let's talk about that Russian incursion on the Reaper drone.

00:01:30.000 Did you see the video?

00:01:30.940 It's pretty cool.

00:01:31.560 I don't understand the video exactly because it seems like that jet got really close to that, like way too close.

00:01:43.300 And it came at it from the front.

00:01:45.660 Like it came at it from the front and then it just pulled up just before it would have hit so it could dump the fuel on it.

00:01:52.080 But here's my question.

00:01:55.180 Oh, that was a rear view camera.

00:01:59.160 Oh, okay.

00:02:01.360 All right.

00:02:02.000 I'm being corrected.

00:02:03.460 That makes more sense because I could understand somebody coming up from behind and pulling up, but it looked like they came from the front, which to me looked crazy.

00:02:13.760 Okay.

00:02:14.420 Now, here's the second question.

00:02:16.720 Somebody who's an engineer.

00:02:18.360 Engineers only, please.

00:02:19.600 Could the fuel alone and just the mass of the fuel bend the propeller?

00:02:28.580 Because it looks like it bent one propeller.

00:02:30.980 You say no?

00:02:32.900 I'm saying yes.

00:02:34.640 I'm not an engineer, but I say yes.

00:02:38.000 But I would be surprised if it only bent one.

00:02:42.140 One propeller was clearly bent.

00:02:45.200 Not all the video showed it, but one did.

00:02:49.600 I see unlikely.

00:02:52.380 I see no.

00:02:53.540 Yeah, the one.

00:02:54.380 See, here's the problem.

00:02:56.040 If there was a physical contact, would it be one blade?

00:03:00.520 Can you imagine physical contact affecting only one blade?

00:03:04.800 You can?

00:03:05.240 I mean, that propeller's turning kind of fast.

00:03:10.060 Seems like the second blade would be right there, like, immediately.

00:03:13.580 You know, even if it was a flying aircraft that hit, you know, one slightly.

00:03:20.180 The second one is right behind it.

00:03:22.780 I don't know how the second one could avoid the collision.

00:03:25.920 I guess it's maybe possible.

00:03:28.020 But then I don't understand how it would only be one propeller if it was the weight of the fuel.

00:03:33.560 I mean, that doesn't make exactly a lot of sense either, does it?

00:03:39.460 Somebody said it's totally possible.

00:03:41.220 Yeah, I would say it's possible under the same concept as if you were to jump from a high space into a body of water,

00:03:51.120 it would be like concrete if you fell, right, right, right?

00:03:54.800 If your parachute didn't open and you landed on a lake or the ocean, it would be like landing on concrete.

00:04:02.180 So the mass of the liquid fuel would be, you know, very soft if you just pushed your hand through it.

00:04:10.780 But if you were to slap it at 1,000 miles an hour, your hand would fall off, I think.

00:04:16.780 So it does seem to me that the fuel itself could have damaged you.

00:04:21.700 I don't know.

00:04:22.700 I'm going to put that out there as a hypothesis.

00:04:28.140 Then the Russians are apparently trying to recover the stuff.

00:04:32.320 But was it General Milley who said, oh, we took care of making sure there's nothing useful to recover?

00:04:40.460 Do they mean they blew it up?

00:04:42.940 And if they mean that, why don't they say it?

00:04:44.840 You know, don't you think that it probably has a self-destruction kind of a thing?

00:04:52.640 And the self-destruction should have worked fine because they had plenty of time between the, you know,

00:04:58.620 the damage to the propeller and the time it went down.

00:05:01.960 But here's my question.

00:05:08.980 I guess I could believe that they destroyed the software, right?

00:05:13.920 I suppose.

00:05:14.420 Maybe you deleted the software or something.

00:05:19.120 But do you think there's no technology in the Reaper that Russia wants?

00:05:24.340 There's no chip.

00:05:25.800 There's no design.

00:05:27.960 You know, secret.

00:05:29.080 Nothing.

00:05:29.280 I suppose if it's just a bunch of debris spread across miles, there's not much you can get.

00:05:34.220 But it's hard for me to believe there's nothing they can get out of it.

00:05:39.020 Does that sound like a lie to you?

00:05:41.020 That there's just nothing they can get that's useful?

00:05:44.960 Now, it's possible.

00:05:46.220 The other possibility is that we know that Russia has already had Reapers and taken them apart. 0.83

00:05:51.640 Or they've already stole the designs.

00:05:53.380 So it's possible that we think they already know everything about the Reaper, but we can't say that out loud.

00:06:00.700 Like, maybe the real answer is, well, I hate to tell you, but they don't really need to recover the debris to find out everything about the Reaper because maybe they already know.

00:06:11.740 That might be the answer.

00:06:13.540 That could easily be the answer.

00:06:16.460 All right, I have a correction.

00:06:18.380 So this is something that I got totally wrong.

00:06:20.780 I was not aware that California has one or had one committee coming up with reparations, recommendations, but San Francisco was doing its own separate one.

00:06:33.680 So I guess I was confused that there were two of them.

00:06:36.780 I did wonder why one had much higher numbers.

00:06:39.040 I just thought they raised the numbers from the first recommendation.

00:06:42.320 So forget everything I said about Gavin Newsom and his committee for the San Francisco one.

00:06:48.840 But Gavin Newsom did play it correctly with his committee, the statewide one, that came up with some ridiculous numbers, which is, I'm sure, what he wanted.

00:06:58.540 So that once the numbers were seen, everybody would say, oh, I guess we can't do that, and that's the end of it.

00:07:03.040 But he could say, well, I tried.

00:07:04.540 I formed a committee.

00:07:06.280 But the San Francisco one seemed sillier because the people who formed the committee, you know, seem aligned with the people who came up with the recommendation.

00:07:15.620 It's all kind of the same little group.

00:07:18.800 So they're the ones who came up with the $5 million per resident, $97,000 per year for 250 years, and you can buy a home for a dollar.

00:07:29.020 It's hard to even say it without laughing. 0.99

00:07:32.180 Like, this is just so dumb. 0.98

00:07:36.860 But then I read that Robert Johnson, the founder of BET, he wanted something like $14 trillion set aside for black Americans. 0.99

00:07:48.620 $14 trillion.

00:07:50.800 Our entire national debt is $30 trillion.

00:07:54.720 So increase the crushing national debt by 50%, and then everything would be good.

00:08:01.320 It took three years for the San Francisco group to come up with a recommendation.

00:08:09.320 What were they studying exactly for three years?

00:08:15.280 What data were they collecting?

00:08:19.440 I don't know.

00:08:19.940 Were they waiting for economists to give them some estimates and stuff?

00:08:23.360 And did anybody tell them that their economists did the calculation incorrectly?

00:08:28.020 I wonder if anybody told them they calculated it wrong.

00:08:31.560 Now, when I say calculated it wrong, I don't mean that the raw numbers are wrong.

00:08:36.880 I don't know.

00:08:38.460 But I do know that they didn't compare it to the alternative, did they?

00:08:42.540 They didn't compare it to the alternative.

00:08:44.640 What kind of an economic analysis says, let's look at this without looking at what it would have been if you hadn't done this?

00:08:53.740 The actual comparison would be to the people who did not leave Africa in the first place and were never a part of slavery.

00:09:04.800 That's the control group.

00:09:07.980 So if slavery had never intervened, what would your life look like?

00:09:13.800 And what would be your quality of life?

00:09:17.080 It might be quite good.

00:09:18.860 It could be some Africans who are doing great.

00:09:21.840 Maybe you take the average.

00:09:24.580 But I wouldn't compare it to what America is doing, even though I understand they were a big part of the labor force.

00:09:32.280 And here's why.

00:09:34.540 The labor force, whether it's paid or a slave, they don't get ownership of the product of the work.

00:09:43.440 Imagine if the slaves had been voluntary employees.

00:09:46.620 I mean, that's a long way from reality.

00:09:48.580 But imagine if they had.

00:09:50.020 Suppose they had been paid.

00:09:51.840 They wouldn't have any ownership of anything else.

00:09:55.260 They would just have their salary.

00:09:58.000 And how much were white, poor Americans at that time earning?

00:10:07.780 Well, I'm going to take a guess.

00:10:09.620 If you were poor and white, what you probably earned was enough to put a roof over your head and eat.

00:10:18.580 And probably not much else.

00:10:22.040 And I'm not going to compare voluntary labor to slavery.

00:10:25.940 I'm just saying that people were working for basically survival at the lowest end.

00:10:33.880 There wasn't that much difference in the compensation part.

00:10:37.920 It was a gigantic difference in, obviously, the ethical, moral, painful, evil part.

00:10:46.780 That part was very different.

00:10:48.980 But that's the part that would make sense to me as an estimate.

00:10:52.880 If you came to me and said, all right, we're not going to look at the economic gain, because that sort of doesn't work.

00:11:00.420 We're going to look at the pain and suffering.

00:11:03.120 It's more about compensation for the bad thing that happened.

00:11:07.400 But then the problem is that the bad thing that happened mostly happened to other people who are long dead.

00:11:13.480 So if you took the approach of we're compensating for the pain and suffering, your argument isn't as strong, because the people who are directly affected have long passed.

00:11:25.100 So then you have to default to an economic argument, because the economics certainly, you know, they ripple forward.

00:11:33.380 So the argument that pain ripples forward is harder to sell.

00:11:38.680 Well, people in my past had a really tough time.

00:11:41.560 They were tortured, and they were slaves.

00:11:43.820 So now I'm in pain.

00:11:46.180 And nobody's going to believe that.

00:11:48.380 You know, even if there's something to it, nobody's going to believe it.

00:11:50.900 It won't be persuasive.

00:11:52.340 But if you say early slaves created a bunch of economic benefit, but we did not benefit from it, then it sounds like something you could talk about.

00:12:05.100 Unless the people you're talking to know how to do analysis.

00:12:09.660 If the people you're talking to know how to do this work, they say, all right, what are you comparing it to?

00:12:16.380 All right, you said you lost, like you lost a bunch of value.

00:12:19.960 Now compare to what?

00:12:21.760 If they're comparing it to the white people, well, I think that's the wrong comparison.

00:12:28.500 Because that's not the control group.

00:12:30.480 If you were a scientist, you wouldn't do that.

00:12:33.100 If you were a scientist, you'd say, what's the control group?

00:12:35.120 Oh, the people who did not have any slavery.

00:12:37.920 That's the control group.

00:12:39.360 If you're not going to at least compare it to the control group, it's just social persuasion.

00:12:45.880 It's not any kind of analysis. 0.98

00:12:48.160 Any number you come up with is just ridiculous.

00:12:51.140 Now, if you were to compare it even to the control group, I don't know what the answer would be.

00:12:58.760 I mean, you still have to do the work.

00:13:00.820 But that would be the proper approach.

00:13:03.600 We'll never do that because the proper approach would be what?

00:13:08.540 Socially unpopular.

00:13:11.380 There are only a few people in the world who could say what I just said now and not get canceled.

00:13:15.200 Tell me I have not already extracted value.

00:13:23.040 I've already extracted value from being canceled.

00:13:25.920 Because I can say this.

00:13:27.960 Because it's not offensive.

00:13:29.860 There's nothing offensive about it at all.

00:13:32.460 It's simply a statement about how all scientific comparisons and all economic comparisons are properly done.

00:13:39.440 It has nothing to do with people.

00:13:41.560 It's just math.

00:13:42.980 But I couldn't even have said that and been safe.

00:13:47.740 I mean, I have said something like it.

00:13:49.460 But, you know, if I had said something about it like that before and it became a viral video, I would be canceled for that.

00:13:58.120 Just for saying that reparations are calculated incorrectly.

00:14:01.920 Oh, I could be canceled for that.

00:14:03.500 Absolutely. 0.99

00:14:05.000 Because it would just turn into racist says affirmations are not for black people. 0.65

00:14:10.120 You know, you know the headline wouldn't match the story.

00:14:13.900 Because it never does.

00:14:16.240 All right.

00:14:21.400 Here's something fun.

00:14:25.440 How much do you think wokeness had to do with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank?

00:14:30.620 Let me get your...

00:14:31.900 Now, yeah, we're private.

00:14:33.900 Don't be political.

00:14:36.960 Now, hold on.

00:14:37.980 Just back off a second.

00:14:39.540 Before you answer, try to not be political.

00:14:44.080 All right?

00:14:44.380 It's hard.

00:14:45.660 I know that the politics in you wants to blame the wokeness.

00:14:49.300 But at Silicon Valley Bank, there's no direct link.

00:14:53.060 Right?

00:14:53.160 There's no smoking gun of, we decided to do only meetings about wokeness and nothing about risk management.

00:15:00.360 Right?

00:15:00.720 There's not a direct anything.

00:15:04.140 But really, most of you are saying it was a big thing, huh?

00:15:08.640 All right.

00:15:09.100 So let me ask the question.

00:15:12.000 Do you think wokeness was responsible in any part with what happened to Silicon Valley Bank?

00:15:20.000 A lot of yeses.

00:15:26.460 Okay.

00:15:27.520 All right.

00:15:28.220 All right.

00:15:28.960 Let me ask a second question.

00:15:31.460 So I'm not giving...

00:15:32.580 My opinion is there's no direct link.

00:15:35.920 No direct link.

00:15:37.240 But if you're saying there's an indirect link, that would be hard to prove.

00:15:42.060 I would agree that that hypothesis is alive.

00:15:46.960 Can we meet there?

00:15:48.080 Can we meet in the middle that the hypothesis that it mattered?

00:15:52.480 Somewhat.

00:15:53.580 Not 100%, but maybe somewhat.

00:15:56.120 The hypothesis is completely alive.

00:15:59.380 And the common sense, as if common sense exists.

00:16:04.940 But the way to...

00:16:07.540 Jack says, woke broke you in half, Scott.

00:16:11.180 Really?

00:16:12.540 Do you think wokeness broke me? 0.99

00:16:14.320 Jack, have you paid attention to nothing in the last few weeks? 0.98

00:16:20.500 If there's one thing that's the dumbest thing you can say in the comments, is that the wokeness 0.99

00:16:25.960 scared me off. 0.99

00:16:29.340 That is such a bad comment.

00:16:32.880 It's like you don't know anything about anything.

00:16:34.880 In the world, anything about me, anything about the last few weeks.

00:16:39.400 It's like you'd have to know nothing about nothing, or nothing about everything.

00:16:45.020 It's just incredible.

00:16:46.560 Like, the variety of mental capacity in the world just blows me away.

00:16:52.040 Because you go through life thinking everybody's at least somewhere around the average.

00:16:56.040 And then you run into somebody who clearly is operating with, like, an IQ of 70 or something.

00:17:01.820 And somehow manage to log onto YouTube anyway, and make a comment in all caps.

00:17:06.660 Ah!

00:17:07.380 All caps!

00:17:08.800 Scott!

00:17:09.680 Scott!

00:17:10.580 Wow!

00:17:11.040 They broke you.

00:17:11.880 They broke you!

00:17:12.660 Wah! 0.94

00:17:13.860 So, good work there, Jack.

00:17:16.940 Anyway, what I was saying was, I don't think there's a direct correlation, but the argument

00:17:22.060 for why it, let's say, the best way to say it would be, why it should be suspected, why

00:17:29.320 it should be suspected, is that nobody can focus on multiple things.

00:17:35.020 How do you focus on multiple things?

00:17:38.520 Now, the quick answer to that is, well, that's just every manager, right?

00:17:43.400 Every manager has lots of variables.

00:17:45.500 They have to make all the variables work.

00:17:47.700 So, this was just one more thing.

00:17:50.360 But I don't think wokeness is one more thing.

00:17:53.700 I think wokeness is such a big thing that because you can show progress in wokeness by

00:18:01.960 simply doing things that the data will say are woke, oh, look at these things I did, this

00:18:07.180 program, this hiring.

00:18:09.400 So, you can prove your wokeness, but can you prove you did your risk management right until

00:18:15.920 the bank fails, right?

00:18:18.420 If the bank is just chugging along, nobody knows if you did risk management correctly

00:18:24.060 or not.

00:18:25.920 It just, it looks like it's right.

00:18:27.700 We're still in business.

00:18:29.140 But your wokeness is really immediate.

00:18:31.260 It's obvious.

00:18:31.760 It's visual.

00:18:33.160 It's provable.

00:18:34.220 It's, or unprovable.

00:18:35.160 So, everything I know about management tells me that people would put more interest in

00:18:41.620 wokeness than risk management because that's where the reward would be.

00:18:46.080 People chase reward.

00:18:48.140 That's why incentives work.

00:18:50.480 Because people reliably chase reward.

00:18:53.900 And chasing wokeness was where the reward was.

00:18:57.660 Now, that doesn't mean it's the reason they failed.

00:19:00.300 But, there's no question that a company that has that as a visible goal, it would not distort

00:19:10.060 their, at least their attention.

00:19:11.980 So, you could argue for sure it was a distortion of good management technique.

00:19:17.280 That's obvious.

00:19:19.360 But whether that went the extra distance and was an important variable in the end product,

00:19:24.160 I don't know.

00:19:25.160 Here's another theory.

00:19:26.260 This would be more the Democrat theory because they don't want to buy into the wokeness hypothesis.

00:19:33.520 I don't think they should, necessarily.

00:19:36.860 But they say Dodd-Frank would have made a difference.

00:19:39.760 And then I keep reading, okay, and the difference would be because, and then it's not there.

00:19:46.060 And then I'll read another article that says, but there's a widespread opinion that if Dodd-Frank,

00:19:53.660 the regulation on banks, had not been weakened by the Trump administration, that maybe Silicon

00:20:00.580 Bank wouldn't have had, you know, that, the lack of oversight that may have contributed.

00:20:05.720 To which I say, okay, and the details, the details are that the specific thing that changed

00:20:12.220 was, was, and I'm keeping looking for it in the article.

00:20:17.520 It's like it's not there.

00:20:19.980 And then I finally saw somebody say, well, what they did was they changed the limit of

00:20:25.640 how big the bank is.

00:20:27.400 So before, they had a lower limit, and the bank would have had to comply to, you know,

00:20:33.300 crushing, crushing regulatory pressure.

00:20:36.960 But the little banks didn't want that, so they said, raise that rate.

00:20:39.920 So if you're below this, I think it's 250 billion in assets, if you're below that level, we won't

00:20:45.800 have the crushing regulations on you.

00:20:49.000 But above that level, they can handle the crushing regulations, and it'll make them safer.

00:20:55.200 So some say that change that made Silicon Bank more, let's say, less regulated than the

00:21:01.260 big ones, is responsible.

00:21:03.740 Do you buy that?

00:21:04.380 Here's what I ask you, because I don't know the answer to the following question.

00:21:10.420 My understanding is that the bank failed because they handled their risk management wrong.

00:21:17.140 There were two assumptions that they got wrong.

00:21:21.120 One was that interest rates wouldn't rise. 0.99

00:21:24.680 Very dumb. 0.97

00:21:26.020 But here's the part most of the stories don't tell you. 0.99

00:21:29.240 There's a part that's left out of most of the reporting.

00:21:32.180 See if you've even heard this.

00:21:33.320 It wasn't just that they bought a bunch of long-term low-interest rate stuff, and then

00:21:39.160 when interest rates went up, they had all this low-interest rate stuff, so they were

00:21:42.840 underwater.

00:21:43.600 It wasn't just that.

00:21:45.700 It's that that would have been fine if the deposit flow had continued the way it normally

00:21:52.400 did.

00:21:53.560 Did you know that?

00:21:55.220 Even their bad risk management wouldn't have been a crushing problem if the deposits had

00:22:01.620 continued the way they had in the past.

00:22:03.340 But since their deposits took a hit, then their bad decision about interest rates became very

00:22:11.840 obvious.

00:22:14.000 It rose to a problem when it wouldn't have risen to a problem except for the other situation.

00:22:17.680 Now, I've only seen a few people smart enough to explain that.

00:22:22.940 And they do explain it sometimes by saying it was like a Ponzi scheme, but not really.

00:22:28.260 It's not a Ponzi scheme.

00:22:29.700 Only in the sense that as long as more money came in, if enough new money came in, it could

00:22:35.200 cover the mistakes made with the old money.

00:22:38.280 I guess that's the easiest way to say it.

00:22:41.560 So they had two problems, and it looks like they misjudged both of them.

00:22:47.320 But I'm not sure it was as obvious when it was happening as it is to us after the fact.

00:22:52.600 Because if they were depending on the inflows, and there was nothing that looked like it was

00:22:56.280 going to stop it, it's risky, and it's too risky, and it shouldn't have happened.

00:23:01.280 But now let's double back to Dodd-Frank.

00:23:03.360 I don't know the answer to this question, so maybe you don't.

00:23:08.540 Even without Dodd-Frank, is there no reporting at all about the risk management position of a bank?

00:23:19.340 How was it that Peter Thiel knew?

00:23:22.460 How did Peter Thiel know?

00:23:23.620 He's not even the government.

00:23:25.540 It must be so obvious that Dodd-Frank wouldn't have made any difference at all.

00:23:29.940 So I think the Dodd-Frank reporting seems like fake news.

00:23:34.720 Am I wrong?

00:23:36.460 And here's what I mean.

00:23:38.100 With or without Dodd-Frank, was this problem at Silicon Bank not so obvious that the government

00:23:43.980 regulators could see it as well as all private investors who were paying attention?

00:23:49.540 What am I missing?

00:23:51.600 It seems to me that Dodd-Frank has nothing to do with this.

00:23:55.520 So here's my stake in the ground.

00:23:58.200 I don't believe the news, just sort of in general.

00:24:01.940 The news is very inaccurate.

00:24:03.860 But I feel like the whole Dodd-Frank thing is a diversion.

00:24:08.940 Because the problem wasn't hidden deeply in the paperwork of the company.

00:24:15.400 It was the biggest top-line thing they were doing.

00:24:18.860 Hey, where's your money?

00:24:20.620 Where'd you put all your money?

00:24:21.880 Are you telling me that even without Dodd-Frank, the government can't see that?

00:24:28.460 The banks don't have to at least report what their capital situation is?

00:24:33.960 I don't believe that.

00:24:35.560 You're telling me that only Dodd-Frank requires you to tell where you put your money in the

00:24:41.700 biggest, most visible way?

00:24:44.960 I don't know.

00:24:45.360 I feel like all the reporting is broken. 0.99

00:24:47.620 It's just garbage. 0.92

00:24:49.960 We're, like, picking through the tea leaves here to figure out what we can know about 0.99

00:24:55.340 this thing. 1.00

00:24:56.340 Anyway, I think the Dodd-Frank thing is bullshit. 0.99

00:24:59.240 I think the wokeness thing is unproven. 0.99

00:25:01.880 I think it was probably an individual who was bad at their job.

00:25:08.140 I think it probably comes down to one person who was bad at their job, and then a bunch

00:25:12.680 of people who were bad at knowing who was bad at their job.

00:25:15.900 You know, whoever the boss was also was asleep at the switch.

00:25:21.600 I think that's going to be the whole story.

00:25:24.520 All right.

00:25:24.920 There was a video that was viral on Twitter in which a young woman said some version of

00:25:33.100 she wouldn't want to work with people who have pronouns in their profiles.

00:25:38.000 And I thought, hey, there's something that I can talk about without getting canceled.

00:25:45.020 So I thought, wouldn't the world be better off if I say this out loud?

00:25:48.660 So I tweeted, I'll say it out loud, too.

00:25:50.820 I would never hire a person with pronouns in their bio.

00:25:54.500 It signals an anti-success mindset.

00:25:58.660 Now, last I checked, there were close to 5 million views.

00:26:03.380 And I can't tell how Twitter does this.

00:26:05.540 I can't tell if the 5 million are based on the original video that I retweeted with a comment.

00:26:12.200 The 5 million isn't my number, right?

00:26:15.100 Does anybody know how that works?

00:26:17.400 Yeah.

00:26:17.560 5 million views would be the original video, not the fact that I retweeted it.

00:26:23.440 So it's not my retweet that's showing.

00:26:25.980 Right?

00:26:26.880 Because I don't think I got 5 million views on my retweet.

00:26:30.480 All right.

00:26:30.720 Somebody's confirming that.

00:26:31.840 Yeah, I think it's total.

00:26:33.080 It would make more sense as total, wouldn't it?

00:26:34.900 But whether it was from my retweet or her original, which said about the same thing,

00:26:39.460 5 million people said, speaking as one almost and instantly,

00:26:44.700 yeah, I would not hire somebody with pronouns.

00:26:48.200 Now, let me ask you this.

00:26:49.840 When young people are told, hey, pronouns are good. 0.98

00:26:54.520 That's good.

00:26:54.980 Put them in your bio and lead with your pronoun.

00:26:58.620 Is there anybody telling them that it's going to destroy their career options?

00:27:03.420 It won't necessarily destroy their life because they still have options.

00:27:07.820 But the number of options that they have will be insanely fewer.

00:27:12.320 Now, here's what it signals to me if I see pronouns.

00:27:19.960 I just met you.

00:27:21.240 Here's something I need you to do for me.

00:27:23.900 That's how it comes off to me.

00:27:26.280 Hi, we just met.

00:27:27.600 Here's something I need you to do for me.

00:27:31.400 That's a losing first impression.

00:27:34.940 Worst first impression you can make.

00:27:36.700 If you're going for a job interview, you come in telling what you can do for them, and you never stop saying it.

00:27:44.220 The only time you ever talk about what they can do for you is when they make an offer.

00:27:50.840 When they make an offer, you can negotiate that and the benefits and stuff, of course.

00:27:56.220 Because now that's the approved time for that conversation.

00:28:00.100 That's when your boss wants you to tell them or her.

00:28:03.860 All right, your boss is looking for you to say what you need.

00:28:07.200 But you don't start with what you need.

00:28:10.060 You don't walk in and say, the beginning of this conversation, I'd like to make it clear, I'll only work under these conditions.

00:28:18.580 Nobody says that.

00:28:20.080 But when you come in with your pronouns, you're saying, here's how you're going to treat me.

00:28:24.500 And if I'm not treated in this way, I'm signaling.

00:28:27.220 That could be a problem.

00:28:29.500 That could be a problem.

00:28:30.960 No, I might not sue.

00:28:32.260 I might not necessarily sue.

00:28:34.360 But if somebody else sued you, I'd probably back them.

00:28:37.200 I'd probably back them if somebody else did.

00:28:39.660 Because that's the way you are.

00:28:41.160 You don't like my pronouns.

00:28:43.420 So it's such a, it's a signal that somebody doesn't understand the basics of success.

00:28:52.740 The basic elements of success.

00:28:55.280 Who is it who doesn't understand that a first impression is really important?

00:28:59.500 Does anybody not understand that?

00:29:05.000 And yet the pronoun people seem to have missed the biggest part of what they're doing.

00:29:10.700 That it has an impact on other people.

00:29:13.160 Now, if they hang around in their little clump of people, they probably just get praise for what they're doing.

00:29:19.600 But somebody needs to tell them this affects their career.

00:29:23.800 And not just if it's on your resume, but if it's on your social media.

00:29:28.760 Look at the comments from hiring managers.

00:29:32.840 Those are the chilling ones.

00:29:34.840 The people who do hiring for a living are, at least in the comments, are universally, close to universally,

00:29:42.320 saying, yeah, I throw away every resume, even if the pronouns are only on their social media.

00:29:51.000 Like, that's really happening.

00:29:52.680 It's a pretty big problem that the woke people do not realize that wokeness is nearly the complete opposite of success.

00:30:03.560 Like, all the concepts of everything from racism to wokeism, they sound good at the moment.

00:30:12.540 And if you're standing in the room with the persons you're talking about, it feels right.

00:30:18.040 But any sense of what it takes to succeed in this world is violated completely by every element of that philosophical framework.

00:30:26.780 So, if you want to be righteous and poor, that would be the way to go.

00:30:34.360 If you want to be successful, I would do the things that successful people do.

00:30:43.800 Too dangerous to hire former cartoonists.

00:30:46.220 Yes, I'm making it dangerous for all cartoonists.

00:30:48.320 So, other people said, yeah, it signals, other hiring people were saying,

00:30:56.100 it signals the higher risk of a lawsuit.

00:31:00.680 How many of you think that somebody who has pronouns is more likely to initiate a lawsuit against the boss?

00:31:09.200 Everybody does.

00:31:10.700 Literally everybody.

00:31:12.640 I would think that even the people with the pronouns would agree with the statement

00:31:17.000 that the people with pronouns are more likely to voice an important complaint in that realm.

00:31:26.000 It's a signal.

00:31:29.180 And more generally, I would say, 0.98

00:31:31.960 I don't want to spend time near any cluster of white people 1.00

00:31:36.760 who have been poisoned with the wokeness narrative. 0.99

00:31:39.220 And I'd say stay the hell away from white people who have that mindset. 0.98

00:31:43.520 So, I was looking at some of the people who believe the headlines, 0.99

00:31:50.920 and they were saying, you're a racist.

00:31:53.840 Now, is it racist to not want to be around people

00:31:58.720 who have been infected with a certain mindset?

00:32:03.380 Is that racist?

00:32:05.580 Because that's, you know, if you take away the hyperbole,

00:32:07.900 of course, I said it in the most provocative way.

00:32:11.100 But the context, for anybody who missed the context, was mindset.

00:32:16.180 Did anybody hear me say,

00:32:17.720 I don't like the genetic makeup of somebody?

00:32:21.100 Did I ever say that?

00:32:22.960 Did I ever say,

00:32:24.480 I think some group of people are born with some characteristic

00:32:27.820 and I want to stay away from them because of the way they were born?

00:32:30.680 No.

00:32:31.060 Oh, that's literally the opposite of anything I've ever said.

00:32:35.280 So, Mike's an NPC.

00:32:38.480 So, on my NPC list, one of the things is backpedaling.

00:32:42.300 When all you do is clarify your position,

00:32:44.940 there's always an NPC who says,

00:32:46.400 oh, there's the backpedaling.

00:32:48.260 Or the fence sitting.

00:32:49.880 Those are all the NPC comments.

00:32:52.500 Now, it's not backpedaling

00:32:54.200 to re-describe exactly what you said the first time.

00:32:58.520 The entire context was people being infected with the woke virus.

00:33:04.640 Let me ask you this.

00:33:05.780 If you knew there were a bunch of people who had

00:33:07.480 the alpha version of COVID,

00:33:10.960 would you want to spend a lot of time in the room?

00:33:14.020 Suppose you didn't know which ones had COVID and which ones didn't.

00:33:17.680 Is that racist?

00:33:19.300 Would that be racist?

00:33:21.080 No.

00:33:21.920 You're just saying this identifiable group of people

00:33:24.680 has a little more COVID at the moment

00:33:28.480 for whatever reason.

00:33:30.700 I'd rather stay away from the virus.

00:33:33.300 But if that same group of people,

00:33:35.560 no matter who they are,

00:33:37.480 had a wokeness virus

00:33:39.220 where their priorities were about

00:33:41.280 the identity as opposed to success,

00:33:44.460 that's the best way to say it.

00:33:47.120 My definition of wokeness,

00:33:48.860 that's the quickest one that gets to the point,

00:33:51.660 it's a preference for identity over success.

00:33:55.240 Because you can't play both at the same time.

00:34:00.820 I mean, you could try,

00:34:02.520 but it's not going to be as good

00:34:04.120 because there are too many conflicts.

00:34:06.560 For example, I gave you the whole list before,

00:34:09.860 but if you're looking at the past

00:34:11.480 and the evil of the past,

00:34:13.540 that's the opposite of a mindset of,

00:34:15.240 if I can do anything,

00:34:16.080 nothing's going to stop me.

00:34:17.600 You know, look at the future.

00:34:18.860 It's just the opposite.

00:34:20.460 So that's the way I think of it.

00:34:22.780 So stay away from people who have that mindset.

00:34:25.060 And that's why,

00:34:26.540 when I had my little provocations,

00:34:30.480 that's why black conservatives,

00:34:33.260 even if they were shocked

00:34:34.360 by the way I introduced the topic,

00:34:36.660 once they heard what I was saying,

00:34:38.460 the black conservatives were like, 0.93

00:34:40.240 oh, I see what you're saying. 0.92

00:34:41.780 You know, I'm probably better

00:34:42.940 if you didn't say it that way,

00:34:44.680 but I see what you're saying.

00:34:46.860 It was a mindset thing.

00:34:48.340 If it had been a black thing, 0.99

00:34:50.480 do you think black conservatives 0.94

00:34:51.780 would have given me a pass?

00:34:55.520 What do you think?

00:34:56.820 Do you think black conservatives

00:34:57.980 would have said, 0.99

00:34:58.600 oh, I don't mind you being a racist

00:35:01.560 because I'm a conservative? 0.95

00:35:03.120 I don't mind you being a racist. 0.89

00:35:04.200 Said no black conservative ever 0.99

00:35:06.160 since the beginning of time?

00:35:08.100 No.

00:35:09.020 No.

00:35:09.800 Black conservatives know 0.98

00:35:10.880 what racism looks like.

00:35:13.360 It's not something like mystery concept.

00:35:15.940 They know exactly what it looks like.

00:35:17.500 They looked at my situation

00:35:18.640 and said, no, that's a mindset thing.

00:35:20.680 I get it.

00:35:21.200 That's a mindset thing.

00:35:24.680 All right.

00:35:27.400 How badly does TikTok

00:35:29.040 own our media in this country?

00:35:32.040 Because the Wall Street Journal

00:35:33.400 and the New York Times

00:35:35.180 are reporting that

00:35:36.360 the Biden administration

00:35:37.480 wants to look at having

00:35:40.060 an American company

00:35:41.220 buy TikTok

00:35:42.640 so that we wouldn't have

00:35:45.280 this data security problem.

00:35:48.780 I don't even see this story

00:35:50.540 on CNN or Fox News today.

00:35:54.220 Did I miss it?

00:35:56.260 Like, I looked at the front pages.

00:35:59.360 Like, this is news from late yesterday.

00:36:02.360 It was on...

00:36:04.200 But it was on the Fox website.

00:36:08.640 I guess all I'm saying is

00:36:09.980 it's weirdly underreported

00:36:12.340 in the general media.

00:36:13.900 But the New York Times

00:36:15.240 and the Wall Street Journal

00:36:16.040 focused on it.

00:36:17.940 So, I'm wondering,

00:36:20.480 is there something happening here

00:36:21.780 that I don't know about?

00:36:23.380 Like, you don't usually see this.

00:36:25.180 Here, if you don't study the media,

00:36:26.940 here's what you need to know.

00:36:27.840 If the New York Times

00:36:30.200 reports on a thing,

00:36:32.540 they're what's called newsmakers,

00:36:34.160 like the Washington Post

00:36:35.120 and the Wall Street Journal.

00:36:36.360 They make the news

00:36:37.620 and then the lesser entities

00:36:39.340 decide to talk about it

00:36:41.120 because the news

00:36:42.280 has been determined.

00:36:43.840 This is the important framework

00:36:45.360 of how to see today

00:36:46.400 that's set by the big outlets

00:36:48.460 like New York Times.

00:36:49.820 And then the others

00:36:50.620 all just got to get on board

00:36:51.880 and talk about it.

00:36:53.180 But that didn't happen this time.

00:36:55.800 Why not?

00:36:56.420 Why didn't that happen?

00:36:58.940 I've never seen this before

00:37:00.320 that I can think of.

00:37:02.220 I've never seen

00:37:02.920 the biggest publications

00:37:04.480 talk about it

00:37:05.340 and then the minor ones

00:37:06.960 sort of act like

00:37:07.880 it's not too important.

00:37:10.220 There's something going on.

00:37:11.620 There's some kind of distortion

00:37:12.720 in the system.

00:37:14.800 Yeah, I mean,

00:37:15.460 I assume some China effect.

00:37:17.560 But here's what we know.

00:37:21.100 So, the Democrats

00:37:22.720 apparently are more interested

00:37:24.640 in keeping TikTok alive.

00:37:27.280 We understand

00:37:28.160 that they think

00:37:29.420 they get their message out

00:37:30.840 to their base

00:37:31.680 a little bit better

00:37:32.420 because they appeal

00:37:33.500 to younger people

00:37:34.200 and TikTok's

00:37:34.940 a younger person

00:37:35.700 sort of thing.

00:37:36.660 So, you can understand

00:37:37.680 why the Democrats

00:37:38.340 want to keep it alive.

00:37:40.440 But in the telling

00:37:42.120 of the story,

00:37:42.940 even in the Wall Street Journal,

00:37:44.940 correct me if I'm wrong,

00:37:45.900 if I read this wrong,

00:37:47.160 but I don't think

00:37:47.860 the Wall Street Journal

00:37:48.620 mentioned any risk

00:37:50.120 other than data security.

00:37:53.080 What's that tell you?

00:37:56.080 It tells me

00:37:56.960 the Wall Street Journal

00:37:57.780 is corrupted by China 1.00

00:38:02.500 because the big risk,

00:38:04.680 and at this point,

00:38:05.540 the Wall Street Journal

00:38:06.400 should know,

00:38:07.620 is the influence risk.

00:38:10.120 But if the Wall Street Journal

00:38:12.080 reported the influence risk,

00:38:14.620 China wouldn't like that. 0.97

00:38:15.660 You know,

00:38:16.980 the data security risk

00:38:18.280 is one that China 0.81

00:38:18.940 can't argue about.

00:38:21.200 Right?

00:38:21.820 That's just pretty

00:38:22.880 straightforward stuff.

00:38:24.500 Data security,

00:38:25.500 all right.

00:38:26.640 What are you going to say

00:38:27.280 about that?

00:38:27.880 No, you shouldn't have

00:38:28.620 any data security?

00:38:29.460 But the conversation

00:38:31.100 China doesn't want to have 1.00

00:38:32.500 is that they can push

00:38:33.980 the heat button,

00:38:34.920 literally it's called

00:38:35.580 the heat button,

00:38:36.440 and make anything go viral,

00:38:38.160 which means they can program

00:38:40.020 American young people

00:38:41.940 with one button.

00:38:45.240 That's not hyperbole.

00:38:47.780 That's an actual,

00:38:49.160 literal, scientific,

00:38:51.340 direct cause and effect

00:38:52.840 known completely.

00:38:55.880 Every part of this

00:38:56.760 is known and confirmed.

00:38:58.340 They can change your mind

00:39:01.460 in America with one button

00:39:02.820 just by making one message

00:39:05.380 more prevalent than another.

00:39:06.580 That's all it takes.

00:39:07.940 Persuasion is mostly repetition

00:39:09.420 from the source

00:39:10.980 that you trust, basically.

00:39:13.640 So, and the Wall Street Journal,

00:39:14.940 I think,

00:39:15.380 didn't even mention that.

00:39:17.900 How do you interpret

00:39:18.780 the weird holes in the coverage

00:39:21.920 that even though

00:39:22.540 the Wall Street Journal

00:39:23.280 is covering it

00:39:24.300 because it's a huge

00:39:25.200 business story,

00:39:26.580 that they don't even mention

00:39:28.600 the biggest risk?

00:39:30.120 The whole reason

00:39:31.160 that it's like a major problem?

00:39:33.560 They're talking about

00:39:34.160 the little one?

00:39:39.140 Oh, that's right.

00:39:40.960 And some of the argument

00:39:42.040 is that it won't solve

00:39:43.380 the security concern.

00:39:45.560 Some say selling it won't,

00:39:46.900 that's what TikTok says.

00:39:48.580 TikTok says selling it

00:39:50.340 won't solve the security concern.

00:39:52.340 That's a diversion.

00:39:54.900 The security concern,

00:39:56.380 again, is the small problem.

00:39:58.900 That's the small problem.

00:40:00.220 If they can make you

00:40:01.000 just think about that,

00:40:02.320 then they get to keep

00:40:03.140 their persuasion button.

00:40:05.040 That's the big problem.

00:40:07.960 So,

00:40:10.100 the Treasury Department's

00:40:12.580 been stalling on this,

00:40:13.860 and there's talk about

00:40:15.260 having an American company

00:40:16.460 buy it.

00:40:16.980 But then,

00:40:18.700 there's talk about

00:40:19.400 having an American company

00:40:20.440 only buy

00:40:21.260 whatever assets

00:40:22.920 would control

00:40:23.700 the safety of the data.

00:40:26.400 And maybe still

00:40:27.260 the heat button

00:40:27.920 is in China.

00:40:29.440 That's not a solution.

00:40:31.460 But it's probably

00:40:32.520 what we're going to do

00:40:33.440 because the public

00:40:35.040 doesn't understand

00:40:35.740 the real risk.

00:40:36.800 So they'll accept,

00:40:37.840 oh, the government

00:40:38.540 says there was a problem

00:40:39.500 and we solved it.

00:40:40.980 And then the Democrats

00:40:42.000 will say,

00:40:42.440 well,

00:40:43.120 I'm glad they solved

00:40:44.020 that problem

00:40:44.520 they identified,

00:40:45.940 even though it wasn't

00:40:46.640 the right problem.

00:40:48.400 And it wasn't

00:40:49.120 the big one.

00:40:50.840 All right.

00:40:52.120 The Pentagon

00:40:52.900 and the Justice Department

00:40:54.340 are in favor

00:40:56.060 of killing TikTok.

00:40:58.240 And it's not happening.

00:41:00.720 Just hold that thought

00:41:02.520 in your head.

00:41:04.240 The Pentagon

00:41:05.240 and the Justice Department,

00:41:09.780 which are, you know,

00:41:11.140 under the control

00:41:11.860 of the Democrats,

00:41:12.860 essentially.

00:41:14.460 The Pentagon

00:41:15.340 and the Justice Department

00:41:16.860 are in favor

00:41:17.520 of killing TikTok

00:41:18.320 and it's not happening.

00:41:20.820 I don't know

00:41:21.540 if I mentioned

00:41:22.180 that the Pentagon

00:41:23.600 and the Justice System

00:41:25.160 are in favor 0.99

00:41:25.720 of killing it 0.99

00:41:26.320 and it's not happening. 0.94

00:41:28.040 But also,

00:41:29.220 did you know

00:41:29.680 the Pentagon

00:41:30.220 and the Justice System

00:41:31.740 are in favor 0.99

00:41:32.340 of killing it 0.98

00:41:32.940 and it's not happening?

00:41:35.700 That's everything

00:41:36.460 you need to know

00:41:37.120 right there.

00:41:38.320 Took them two years

00:41:39.320 and they have

00:41:41.540 everything they need

00:41:42.260 to know.

00:41:42.560 The Pentagon

00:41:43.420 wants to stop it.

00:41:45.740 It's a national

00:41:46.920 security problem.

00:41:49.480 How is this

00:41:50.540 not getting through?

00:41:52.360 Now, obviously,

00:41:53.260 the answer is

00:41:53.700 it is getting through

00:41:54.480 and the Democrats

00:41:56.500 just want TikTok

00:41:57.440 for political reasons.

00:41:59.740 Now, you know

00:42:00.180 what else

00:42:00.680 is not being discussed?

00:42:03.320 The availability

00:42:04.300 for children

00:42:05.060 because those

00:42:06.560 are two different questions.

00:42:08.240 One is,

00:42:09.080 do you let children

00:42:09.760 use TikTok?

00:42:10.600 A terrible idea.

00:42:13.020 And two,

00:42:13.640 does anybody

00:42:14.220 use TikTok

00:42:14.820 because it can

00:42:15.400 influence our elections

00:42:16.320 and blah, blah, blah.

00:42:17.600 And somehow

00:42:18.460 these articles

00:42:19.200 just sort of

00:42:20.140 gloss over

00:42:21.060 that it's damaging

00:42:22.580 to children.

00:42:23.800 Clearly damaging

00:42:24.620 to children.

00:42:25.680 Obviously damaging

00:42:26.560 to children.

00:42:28.440 Yeah.

00:42:28.860 Everything about this

00:42:29.820 is corrupt. 0.93

00:42:30.820 So the Democrats 0.87

00:42:31.480 have literally

00:42:32.460 chosen

00:42:33.120 China over 0.98

00:42:34.700 the United States

00:42:35.540 in terms of

00:42:36.380 security

00:42:37.460 and Democrats

00:42:40.120 over their

00:42:41.040 own children.

00:42:43.240 They're choosing

00:42:44.060 power over

00:42:44.920 the well-being

00:42:45.700 of their own

00:42:46.460 children.

00:42:47.260 And it's obvious

00:42:48.340 and it's direct.

00:42:50.600 It's not indirect.

00:42:52.600 This isn't like,

00:42:53.880 did wokeness

00:42:55.140 have some kind

00:42:56.440 of an impact

00:42:57.260 on Silicon Valley?

00:42:58.540 I don't know.

00:42:59.640 Maybe yes,

00:43:00.340 maybe no.

00:43:01.520 But this is direct.

00:43:03.600 Everybody knows

00:43:04.640 that a 13-year-old

00:43:07.020 on TikTok

00:43:07.520 is going to have

00:43:08.520 some mental health 0.97

00:43:09.240 problems.

00:43:10.180 We all know that.

00:43:12.500 And we're not

00:43:13.220 doing it.

00:43:15.200 It's just amazing

00:43:16.200 that the Democrats

00:43:16.920 can do this

00:43:17.500 right in front of us.

00:43:19.300 Right in front of you.

00:43:20.900 And it makes

00:43:21.280 no difference at all.

00:43:22.540 It's like the government

00:43:23.200 could not be

00:43:24.080 more broken.

00:43:25.840 All right,

00:43:26.120 here's Vivek

00:43:27.600 talking about

00:43:28.320 Vivek Ramaswamy

00:43:29.460 talking about

00:43:30.780 Silicon Valley Bank.

00:43:32.540 And I'm going to

00:43:34.080 disagree with him

00:43:34.860 here even though

00:43:35.640 I've endorsed him.

00:43:39.060 He talks about

00:43:39.900 So I'll give you

00:43:43.720 the lead up.

00:43:44.440 He goes,

00:43:44.780 SVB's ESG report

00:43:47.400 lists a litany

00:43:48.760 of, quote,

00:43:49.620 cross-function

00:43:50.460 working groups,

00:43:52.080 including a

00:43:52.980 sustainable finance

00:43:54.500 group that monitors

00:43:55.780 progress against

00:43:56.820 their climate

00:43:57.920 commitment and

00:43:59.500 monitors operational

00:44:00.840 greenhouse gas

00:44:01.660 reduction initiatives.

00:44:03.820 And then

00:44:04.220 Vivek says,

00:44:06.560 he sums it up

00:44:07.220 by saying,

00:44:08.020 taxpayers shouldn't

00:44:09.020 vindicate

00:44:09.780 Silicon Valley's

00:44:11.100 political hubris.

00:44:14.960 Does that make

00:44:15.860 sense to you?

00:44:17.320 That taxpayers 0.60

00:44:18.860 shouldn't vindicate

00:44:20.160 their political

00:44:23.080 hubris?

00:44:24.420 No, that doesn't

00:44:25.320 make any sense.

00:44:26.880 Because

00:44:27.440 the leaders

00:44:29.880 have all been

00:44:30.560 punished.

00:44:31.660 The leaders

00:44:32.580 aren't getting

00:44:32.940 a benefit.

00:44:34.120 They lost

00:44:34.600 their jobs

00:44:35.060 and their

00:44:35.320 reputations.

00:44:37.420 They got

00:44:37.720 cleaned out.

00:44:39.180 The investors

00:44:39.700 got cleaned

00:44:40.260 out.

00:44:41.340 But Vivek is

00:44:42.660 treating the

00:44:44.440 depositors who

00:44:46.160 did nothing

00:44:46.740 wrong.

00:44:48.360 Depositors

00:44:49.040 trusted their

00:44:49.800 government.

00:44:51.300 And they

00:44:51.660 shouldn't have.

00:44:52.840 Because I

00:44:53.720 would have

00:44:54.000 trusted the

00:44:54.540 government to

00:44:55.080 be watching the

00:44:55.680 banks.

00:44:56.700 Didn't you?

00:44:57.700 Didn't you think

00:44:58.360 the government

00:44:58.800 was watching

00:44:59.520 at least the

00:45:01.180 capital allocation

00:45:02.220 part?

00:45:03.580 I just thought

00:45:04.280 that was basic

00:45:04.920 government stuff.

00:45:05.920 You said no?

00:45:06.560 Some people said

00:45:07.140 no.

00:45:07.780 I just assumed

00:45:08.560 they were.

00:45:09.280 But I also

00:45:09.980 assume that most

00:45:10.720 depositors feel

00:45:12.160 that the

00:45:12.880 government's got

00:45:13.760 their back.

00:45:15.340 So confusing the

00:45:16.600 depositors who

00:45:17.660 were just victims

00:45:18.320 of this with the

00:45:19.840 management who were

00:45:21.560 culpable and then

00:45:23.760 the investors in

00:45:24.680 the bank who

00:45:25.960 at least they

00:45:26.680 were professional

00:45:27.260 investors so

00:45:28.280 they were taking

00:45:29.280 the risk that

00:45:30.080 any investor

00:45:31.920 takes.

00:45:32.740 So you can't

00:45:33.540 feel two

00:45:34.460 crocodile tears

00:45:36.120 for the

00:45:36.500 investors and

00:45:37.160 the managers.

00:45:38.200 But to act as

00:45:39.080 though the

00:45:39.420 depositors who

00:45:40.800 were the

00:45:41.100 victims, I

00:45:43.360 don't see how

00:45:43.860 that could 0.68

00:45:44.180 possibly hurt

00:45:45.020 us in the

00:45:45.640 long run if

00:45:46.820 we don't let

00:45:47.600 the victims

00:45:48.540 be victims.

00:45:51.000 I feel like

00:45:51.920 the management

00:45:52.460 got punished

00:45:54.020 enough that

00:45:55.780 it would make

00:45:56.200 them not want

00:45:56.780 to do it a

00:45:57.240 second time.

00:45:58.280 Is there

00:45:58.600 anybody who's

00:45:59.040 going to look

00:45:59.340 at Silicon Valley

00:46:00.080 Bank and say

00:46:00.680 all right,

00:46:01.400 all right,

00:46:02.000 if we do the

00:46:02.840 same thing and

00:46:04.080 we manage poorly

00:46:05.060 okay, this

00:46:06.760 could work out.

00:46:08.060 At least our

00:46:08.780 depositors will be

00:46:09.660 covered by the

00:46:10.400 government and

00:46:12.100 the only bad

00:46:12.760 thing that will

00:46:13.100 happen to me is

00:46:14.280 I'll lose my

00:46:15.040 job and my

00:46:16.240 reputation.

00:46:17.700 Okay, I'm

00:46:18.120 going to do it.

00:46:19.180 I'm going to do

00:46:19.840 it because the

00:46:21.060 depositors are

00:46:21.840 covered.

00:46:22.660 I feel like

00:46:23.440 Vivek is

00:46:23.900 just completely

00:46:24.660 wrong on this.

00:46:25.880 What do you

00:46:26.240 think?

00:46:28.940 As soon as

00:46:29.720 you conflate

00:46:30.740 the depositor

00:46:31.640 risk with

00:46:33.080 the bank

00:46:33.500 management

00:46:34.000 risk, you're

00:46:35.160 in crazy town.

00:46:36.020 That doesn't

00:46:36.320 make any

00:46:36.680 sense.

00:46:38.900 Vivek is

00:46:39.400 totally right.

00:46:40.040 So you think

00:46:40.440 the depositors

00:46:41.400 who are

00:46:41.680 innocent should 0.92

00:46:43.400 suffer because

00:46:45.620 the management

00:46:46.480 did something

00:46:47.220 and the

00:46:47.940 government was

00:46:48.540 not doing

00:46:48.940 their oversight.

00:46:50.480 So therefore

00:46:50.980 the depositors

00:46:52.000 should suffer?

00:46:52.460 Okay, so

00:46:54.860 people say

00:46:55.280 yes.

00:46:55.680 As long as

00:46:56.260 you can say

00:46:56.680 yes to the

00:46:57.540 full proposition,

00:46:59.740 then at least

00:47:01.620 you have a

00:47:02.240 consistent opinion.

00:47:03.780 I respect

00:47:04.620 consistent opinions.

00:47:05.920 I don't agree

00:47:07.980 with it because

00:47:08.720 I think there

00:47:09.160 would have been

00:47:09.460 a bank run.

00:47:10.300 I think the

00:47:10.860 risk of a

00:47:11.300 bank run was

00:47:11.880 too big.

00:47:13.300 So that the

00:47:14.140 benefit to you

00:47:15.100 was probably

00:47:17.600 large.

00:47:18.080 probably

00:47:20.540 large.

00:47:21.580 Now, none

00:47:22.280 of us know

00:47:22.760 whether the

00:47:23.220 bank run

00:47:23.660 would have

00:47:23.960 happened or

00:47:24.400 not, or

00:47:25.020 even if it

00:47:25.500 happens yet.

00:47:26.740 But it

00:47:27.860 definitely would

00:47:28.380 have made a

00:47:29.120 higher chance.

00:47:30.720 I don't think

00:47:31.160 there's any

00:47:31.480 doubt of that.

00:47:32.420 Would you

00:47:32.700 doubt that

00:47:33.040 there was a

00:47:33.400 higher chance

00:47:34.080 of a bank

00:47:34.600 run if the

00:47:35.660 depositors had

00:47:36.400 not been

00:47:36.720 covered?

00:47:37.440 How about

00:47:37.720 that?

00:47:38.840 Would you

00:47:39.600 agree that

00:47:40.300 there would

00:47:40.500 be higher

00:47:40.960 risk, but

00:47:42.240 we don't know

00:47:42.700 if it would

00:47:42.960 have happened.

00:47:43.900 It just

00:47:44.220 would have

00:47:44.440 been a

00:47:44.620 higher risk.

00:47:45.080 So here's

00:47:49.380 my wrap-up

00:47:50.060 of that.

00:47:52.560 That's not

00:47:53.180 a higher risk

00:47:53.840 I would

00:47:54.160 tolerate at

00:47:54.860 any level.

00:47:56.360 The risk

00:47:57.020 of a bank

00:47:57.560 run, you

00:47:58.700 want that to

00:47:59.220 be zero.

00:48:00.740 Like 10%

00:48:01.520 risk of a

00:48:02.160 bank run?

00:48:02.740 No thank

00:48:03.200 you.

00:48:04.780 Nope.

00:48:05.540 Nope.

00:48:06.240 I don't want

00:48:06.860 a 10% risk

00:48:07.860 of a bank

00:48:08.320 run.

00:48:09.040 If I can

00:48:09.520 bring that

00:48:09.900 to five,

00:48:10.540 I'm going

00:48:10.800 to spend

00:48:11.080 a lot of

00:48:11.440 money to

00:48:11.780 do it.

00:48:12.880 All right.

00:48:15.080 I saw

00:48:17.640 Sam Harris

00:48:18.240 was getting

00:48:18.620 some attention

00:48:19.160 for saying

00:48:19.660 that he

00:48:20.340 was using

00:48:20.780 Candace

00:48:21.380 Owens more

00:48:22.180 as an

00:48:22.440 example,

00:48:22.920 I think,

00:48:23.780 that he

00:48:24.600 said she

00:48:24.920 isn't worthy

00:48:25.400 of having

00:48:25.780 opinions on

00:48:26.440 vaccines or

00:48:27.160 climate change.

00:48:29.040 Do you

00:48:29.600 agree with

00:48:29.960 that?

00:48:30.880 Do you

00:48:31.100 think Candace

00:48:31.700 Owens,

00:48:33.000 I hate the

00:48:34.780 words he's

00:48:35.280 using,

00:48:35.640 not worthy

00:48:36.240 of, I

00:48:36.940 think he

00:48:37.220 means not

00:48:37.900 credentialed

00:48:38.760 enough, but

00:48:40.040 not worthy,

00:48:40.920 says Sam

00:48:41.440 Harris, of

00:48:41.860 having opinions

00:48:42.480 on vaccines

00:48:43.100 and climate

00:48:43.580 change.

00:48:43.940 Well, let's

00:48:45.680 compare her 0.96

00:48:46.160 to the

00:48:46.460 experts, shall

00:48:47.120 we?

00:48:48.360 I think he

00:48:49.360 raises a good

00:48:50.040 question.

00:48:51.480 Should you

00:48:51.900 trust Candace

00:48:52.780 Owens more

00:48:53.420 than the

00:48:53.700 experts?

00:48:54.920 Here's my

00:48:55.340 first question,

00:48:56.080 Sam.

00:48:57.000 Have you

00:48:57.380 compared their

00:48:57.960 track records?

00:48:59.860 Seriously.

00:49:01.200 Have you

00:49:01.640 compared everything

00:49:03.060 Candace Owens has

00:49:04.020 ever said on

00:49:05.420 all kinds of

00:49:06.140 topics, because

00:49:06.840 we all talk

00:49:07.460 about all the

00:49:08.100 news?

00:49:08.800 She doesn't

00:49:09.220 talk about

00:49:09.620 some of the

00:49:10.020 news, she

00:49:10.320 talks about

00:49:10.680 it all, all

00:49:11.260 the big

00:49:11.520 stuff.

00:49:11.780 Have you

00:49:13.600 looked at

00:49:14.140 what she

00:49:14.740 said about

00:49:15.340 everything,

00:49:16.400 every part of

00:49:17.160 the pandemic,

00:49:17.880 every part of

00:49:18.440 anything else,

00:49:19.800 and compare

00:49:20.420 that to the

00:49:20.860 experts?

00:49:22.160 If you tell

00:49:23.000 me that you

00:49:23.520 know she

00:49:24.120 did worse

00:49:24.640 than the

00:49:24.880 experts, I

00:49:25.980 would say,

00:49:26.380 how do you

00:49:26.680 know that?

00:49:28.040 How do you

00:49:28.400 know that?

00:49:29.360 Where's that

00:49:29.980 evidence?

00:49:31.100 Because

00:49:31.540 anecdotally, I

00:49:33.180 don't see it.

00:49:34.260 Do you?

00:49:35.340 I do see

00:49:36.180 things that, in

00:49:37.060 my opinion, she

00:49:37.820 got wrong, which

00:49:38.760 would be true of

00:49:39.640 every person.

00:49:41.220 Being wrong

00:49:42.080 is not any

00:49:43.160 kind of a

00:49:43.560 criticism, really,

00:49:45.160 more of an

00:49:45.620 observation.

00:49:46.860 We're all

00:49:47.260 wrong.

00:49:48.980 Everybody gets

00:49:49.840 to be wrong

00:49:50.480 if you do

00:49:51.300 this kind of

00:49:51.840 work.

00:49:53.160 So I

00:49:55.200 would just

00:49:55.500 put that out

00:49:56.080 there, that I

00:49:56.820 don't think

00:49:57.360 there's any

00:49:57.800 evidence that

00:49:58.420 she has not

00:49:59.000 beaten the

00:49:59.760 experts, because

00:50:01.220 she does have

00:50:01.980 one skill.

00:50:03.280 She has lots 1.00

00:50:03.960 of skills, but

00:50:04.960 one skill that

00:50:05.680 stands out.

00:50:06.920 What would

00:50:07.280 that be?

00:50:07.640 What would

00:50:09.260 be a good

00:50:10.100 Candace Owens

00:50:11.860 skill?

00:50:13.080 Right, BS

00:50:13.940 detector.

00:50:14.620 That is

00:50:14.920 correct.

00:50:15.940 Her BS

00:50:16.960 detector is

00:50:17.880 pretty good.

00:50:19.540 And somebody

00:50:20.040 with a good

00:50:20.580 BS detector can

00:50:21.820 beat the

00:50:22.280 experts.

00:50:23.680 They can beat

00:50:24.240 the experts.

00:50:25.180 All they do is

00:50:25.920 they focus on

00:50:26.600 the ones that

00:50:27.080 are obviously

00:50:27.660 wrong.

00:50:28.920 Now, if you

00:50:29.580 said, I'd

00:50:30.720 like to use

00:50:31.300 Candace Owens

00:50:32.060 as my doctor

00:50:32.920 for all of my

00:50:34.620 medical issues,

00:50:35.580 well, I would

00:50:35.980 think that would

00:50:36.340 be a bad

00:50:36.780 idea.

00:50:37.660 I would go

00:50:38.140 with an

00:50:38.420 actual doctor

00:50:39.200 in that case.

00:50:40.400 But, if the

00:50:42.080 medical community

00:50:43.200 tells you that,

00:50:45.240 let's say,

00:50:46.620 oh, I don't

00:50:47.220 know, that

00:50:48.440 drinking alcohol

00:50:49.900 might be good

00:50:50.860 for your health,

00:50:52.620 how about that?

00:50:54.420 That's the one

00:50:55.140 that I called 1.00

00:50:55.680 out as bullshit 1.00

00:50:56.320 20 years ago, 1.00

00:50:57.660 and now it's

00:50:58.680 more and more

00:50:59.340 clear that that

00:50:59.980 was never true.

00:51:01.240 Now, am I a

00:51:02.440 doctor?

00:51:03.280 Would Sam Harris

00:51:04.160 think that you

00:51:04.820 should listen to

00:51:05.460 me over the

00:51:06.220 medical community?

00:51:07.720 Yes, you

00:51:08.120 should.

00:51:09.000 Yes, you

00:51:09.480 should.

00:51:10.320 In that

00:51:10.740 specific question,

00:51:12.140 yes, you

00:51:12.540 should.

00:51:13.420 Because I

00:51:14.200 identified the 1.00

00:51:15.200 bullshit, the 0.99

00:51:15.840 reason for it, 1.00

00:51:16.660 the entire

00:51:17.280 mechanism of

00:51:18.140 why anybody

00:51:19.620 would have said

00:51:20.200 it, the

00:51:20.520 reason that

00:51:21.020 some of the

00:51:23.000 studies agreed

00:51:24.620 with each

00:51:25.000 other.

00:51:25.460 I laid it

00:51:26.240 all out.

00:51:27.120 It was all

00:51:27.600 right.

00:51:28.120 Every bit of

00:51:28.640 it was right,

00:51:29.240 as far as we

00:51:29.700 know.

00:51:29.980 That's the

00:51:30.280 current

00:51:30.700 understanding.

00:51:33.560 Having smart

00:51:34.740 people with

00:51:35.460 BS detectors

00:51:36.320 tell you that

00:51:37.340 something from

00:51:37.920 the medical

00:51:38.340 community is not

00:51:39.300 true, there

00:51:41.680 are people who

00:51:42.440 can do that

00:51:43.180 and do have a

00:51:44.220 little track

00:51:44.700 record of doing

00:51:45.320 it.

00:51:45.880 Again, not

00:51:46.740 everything.

00:51:47.720 Not everything.

00:51:48.840 But nobody

00:51:49.280 gets everything

00:51:49.760 right.

00:51:52.040 All right,

00:51:52.480 here's an

00:51:54.020 example of the

00:51:54.860 experts.

00:51:55.620 All right,

00:51:55.800 trust the

00:51:56.200 experts.

00:51:56.600 By coincidence,

00:51:58.740 there were

00:51:59.960 two tweets

00:52:01.160 that were

00:52:01.600 right next to

00:52:02.200 each other

00:52:02.600 physically on

00:52:03.340 Twitter in

00:52:03.800 my feed because

00:52:04.760 I was looking

00:52:05.200 for long

00:52:06.320 COVID.

00:52:07.400 One of the

00:52:08.160 stories was

00:52:08.680 from Scientific

00:52:09.400 America and

00:52:10.920 it said that

00:52:11.560 long COVID is

00:52:12.560 a neurological

00:52:13.180 disease and

00:52:14.300 maybe 16

00:52:15.940 million people

00:52:16.600 have it and

00:52:17.520 it's even

00:52:19.560 young, healthy

00:52:20.180 people and

00:52:21.200 other estimates

00:52:23.000 say it could

00:52:23.720 be like 40%

00:52:25.380 of people who

00:52:26.100 had COVID.

00:52:26.600 might have

00:52:26.940 long COVID

00:52:27.600 and it's

00:52:27.940 really bad

00:52:28.720 and blah,

00:52:29.660 blah, blah.

00:52:30.160 Do you know

00:52:30.500 what they don't

00:52:31.000 mention anywhere

00:52:31.880 in the article?

00:52:33.960 Do you know

00:52:34.460 what's not

00:52:34.860 mentioned?

00:52:35.900 It's a whole

00:52:36.420 big Scientific

00:52:37.280 America article

00:52:38.160 about long

00:52:39.360 COVID.

00:52:40.800 They never

00:52:41.600 mentioned the

00:52:44.640 possibility that

00:52:46.640 it's a

00:52:46.940 vaccination

00:52:47.340 problem.

00:52:49.740 Now, I

00:52:51.000 don't think

00:52:51.400 it is, but

00:52:54.220 how do you

00:52:54.580 rule that

00:52:55.000 out?

00:52:55.300 how in the

00:52:56.700 world do

00:52:57.020 you keep

00:52:57.340 that out

00:52:57.740 of the

00:52:57.960 article?

00:52:58.900 That's a

00:52:59.520 giant tell.

00:53:00.980 It's a

00:53:01.340 gigantic tell

00:53:02.200 for this

00:53:03.720 being a

00:53:04.180 plant by

00:53:04.940 the pharma

00:53:05.580 industry.

00:53:06.860 What it

00:53:07.500 looks like

00:53:08.060 is we're

00:53:08.580 being primed

00:53:09.380 for drugs

00:53:10.260 that treat

00:53:10.760 long COVID.

00:53:12.520 That's what

00:53:12.920 it looks

00:53:13.160 like.

00:53:13.920 It does

00:53:14.420 not look

00:53:14.840 like this

00:53:15.200 was a

00:53:15.680 real article.

00:53:16.980 It looks

00:53:17.440 like a

00:53:17.780 fake article,

00:53:18.820 meaning that

00:53:19.400 it was

00:53:19.620 influenced by

00:53:20.440 somebody who

00:53:21.160 has a

00:53:21.520 longer-term

00:53:22.060 agenda.

00:53:22.980 I don't

00:53:23.660 think you

00:53:24.020 could write

00:53:24.340 this honestly

00:53:25.140 without at

00:53:26.180 least saying

00:53:26.700 half the

00:53:27.400 country thinks

00:53:28.000 it's the

00:53:28.340 vaccinations,

00:53:29.840 and we

00:53:30.180 don't really

00:53:30.600 know.

00:53:32.340 It did

00:53:33.020 point to

00:53:33.780 a study,

00:53:35.300 which I

00:53:35.720 had not

00:53:35.980 seen,

00:53:36.960 that said

00:53:37.340 that the

00:53:38.640 vaccination,

00:53:39.680 if it had

00:53:40.320 any beneficial

00:53:41.680 impact on

00:53:42.560 long COVID,

00:53:43.760 it was sort

00:53:44.820 of in the

00:53:45.180 15% range,

00:53:46.560 1-5,

00:53:47.700 and that

00:53:48.140 wasn't as

00:53:48.800 much of a

00:53:49.300 benefit as

00:53:49.900 they had

00:53:50.120 imagined.

00:53:50.480 Now let

00:53:51.620 me ask you

00:53:52.040 this.

00:53:53.000 If you

00:53:53.620 knew that

00:53:54.040 long COVID

00:53:54.660 was real,

00:53:55.840 and not

00:53:56.220 the kind

00:53:56.560 that lasts

00:53:56.940 a month,

00:53:57.600 but the

00:53:57.860 kind that

00:53:58.200 lasts,

00:53:58.760 apparently,

00:53:59.340 the rest

00:53:59.640 of your

00:53:59.840 life,

00:54:00.360 if you

00:54:00.820 knew that

00:54:01.320 was real,

00:54:02.820 would you

00:54:03.200 take a

00:54:03.720 15% chance

00:54:05.280 of reducing

00:54:06.960 it by

00:54:09.180 accepting

00:54:09.700 whatever the

00:54:10.560 risk of

00:54:11.220 the vaccination

00:54:11.680 itself is?

00:54:14.000 Say no.

00:54:16.040 Well,

00:54:17.280 so you

00:54:18.340 would say

00:54:18.740 that more

00:54:19.180 than 15%

00:54:20.260 – no,

00:54:22.160 let me do

00:54:22.440 the numbers

00:54:23.080 right –

00:54:23.680 is not

00:54:24.060 100% of

00:54:24.700 people get

00:54:25.100 long COVID,

00:54:26.140 so it's

00:54:26.640 a 15%

00:54:27.540 chance you

00:54:28.260 would help

00:54:28.640 a little

00:54:28.960 bit on

00:54:29.960 something

00:54:30.340 that's only

00:54:30.840 a percentage

00:54:31.340 of the

00:54:31.780 population.

00:54:32.800 So first

00:54:33.160 of all,

00:54:33.400 you wouldn't

00:54:33.680 know if

00:54:34.000 you would

00:54:34.260 be the

00:54:34.520 one who

00:54:35.080 got long

00:54:35.560 COVID or

00:54:36.660 were susceptible,

00:54:37.980 and then

00:54:38.320 there would

00:54:38.540 only be a

00:54:39.060 15% chance

00:54:40.120 that if

00:54:41.060 you were in

00:54:41.440 the group

00:54:41.740 who might

00:54:42.040 get it,

00:54:43.020 it would

00:54:43.340 be better.

00:54:44.600 Now if

00:54:45.080 you were,

00:54:45.500 let's say,

00:54:46.100 older and

00:54:46.780 you had

00:54:47.000 comorbidities,

00:54:48.700 the speculation

00:54:49.320 is that the

00:54:50.220 worse your

00:54:50.660 COVID is,

00:54:51.540 the higher

00:54:51.840 your chance

00:54:52.320 of long

00:54:52.660 COVID.

00:54:54.060 But clearly

00:54:56.940 at this

00:54:57.380 point, the

00:54:59.220 long COVID

00:54:59.860 doesn't seem

00:55:00.540 to be a

00:55:01.100 big factor

00:55:01.820 for vaccinations.

00:55:03.280 Now that

00:55:03.540 was one of my

00:55:04.100 biggest,

00:55:04.920 that was one

00:55:05.580 of my biggest

00:55:06.100 variables.

00:55:07.540 One of my

00:55:07.960 biggest variables

00:55:08.580 was, well,

00:55:10.220 you know, I

00:55:10.820 don't know,

00:55:11.220 but I don't

00:55:11.540 want long

00:55:12.000 COVID, so if

00:55:12.820 it makes any

00:55:13.320 difference to

00:55:13.880 that, I'd

00:55:15.240 like to reduce

00:55:15.840 my long

00:55:16.300 COVID risk.

00:55:20.480 But, I

00:55:22.120 don't think

00:55:22.420 we know

00:55:22.700 anything about

00:55:23.220 anything.

00:55:24.540 The very

00:55:25.260 next article

00:55:25.900 that was

00:55:26.280 next to

00:55:26.720 this one,

00:55:27.620 saying that

00:55:28.180 long COVID

00:55:28.760 has all

00:55:29.140 these problems,

00:55:30.100 there's another

00:55:30.600 expert saying,

00:55:31.340 yeah, it's

00:55:31.640 the shots.

00:55:33.600 It's the

00:55:33.980 vaccination.

00:55:34.880 Yeah, it's

00:55:35.420 not long

00:55:35.900 COVID, it's

00:55:36.360 just the

00:55:36.680 vaccination

00:55:37.080 giving you

00:55:37.520 these long

00:55:37.920 problems.

00:55:38.600 Do I

00:55:38.960 believe that?

00:55:40.660 No.

00:55:42.040 But I

00:55:42.440 don't rule

00:55:43.180 it out.

00:55:44.220 How can I

00:55:44.900 rule it out?

00:55:45.840 But also,

00:55:47.020 how can I

00:55:47.360 believe it?

00:55:48.200 So basically,

00:55:48.900 it's a claim

00:55:49.400 that I just

00:55:50.020 look at and

00:55:50.480 go, I

00:55:50.840 don't know,

00:55:51.820 could be.

00:55:53.160 So my

00:55:53.980 best guess is

00:55:54.820 that both

00:55:55.340 COVID and

00:55:56.500 the vaccination

00:55:57.220 harm some

00:55:58.920 people.

00:56:00.240 What do

00:56:00.840 you think?

00:56:03.360 Best guess,

00:56:04.720 both the

00:56:05.120 vaccination and

00:56:06.280 the COVID

00:56:06.760 will harm

00:56:07.400 some people.

00:56:09.140 Now, if

00:56:10.300 you think you

00:56:10.800 know which

00:56:11.180 one would

00:56:11.560 harm them

00:56:11.960 the most,

00:56:12.920 I think that

00:56:13.700 gets into

00:56:14.200 a pretty

00:56:15.580 vague

00:56:16.540 territory

00:56:17.160 there.

00:56:18.660 But it

00:56:19.160 could go

00:56:19.480 either way.

00:56:20.300 I would

00:56:20.620 say I'd

00:56:21.000 be open

00:56:21.340 to it

00:56:21.620 going

00:56:21.800 either way.

00:56:24.000 Now, given

00:56:24.640 that I was

00:56:25.160 far more

00:56:25.800 concerned about

00:56:26.660 long COVID

00:56:29.260 than death,

00:56:32.700 I don't know,

00:56:34.220 I guess we're

00:56:34.560 just all

00:56:34.920 guessing.

00:56:35.920 In the end,

00:56:36.580 we were all

00:56:36.940 guessing.

00:56:38.860 I know you

00:56:39.620 weren't.

00:56:39.880 you were

00:56:40.720 reading the

00:56:41.120 tea leaves

00:56:41.520 correctly,

00:56:42.060 weren't you?

00:56:42.900 From the

00:56:43.360 very beginning.

00:56:45.200 From the

00:56:45.580 very beginning.

00:56:46.760 Well, we

00:56:47.380 all think

00:56:47.720 that, but

00:56:48.900 I won't

00:56:49.900 talk you

00:56:50.340 out of

00:56:50.560 it.

00:56:54.440 To me, I

00:56:55.400 would say

00:56:55.760 that both

00:56:56.280 the, here's

00:56:57.140 my take.

00:56:58.440 While I

00:56:58.960 think it's

00:56:59.380 likely that

00:57:00.020 both the

00:57:00.400 vaccination

00:57:00.780 and the

00:57:01.600 COVID could

00:57:02.280 hurt some

00:57:03.380 types of

00:57:03.800 people, I

00:57:05.080 don't know

00:57:05.380 which group

00:57:05.800 would be

00:57:06.100 bigger, and

00:57:07.340 I'm not sure

00:57:07.780 I would

00:57:08.020 ever believe

00:57:08.600 any data

00:57:09.080 that told

00:57:09.440 me one

00:57:09.780 way or

00:57:10.040 the other.

00:57:10.720 I feel

00:57:11.120 like we're

00:57:11.600 in territory

00:57:12.100 that you

00:57:12.480 will never

00:57:12.940 be able to

00:57:13.440 trust any

00:57:13.960 data in

00:57:14.880 that realm.

00:57:15.800 I don't

00:57:16.020 think I

00:57:16.320 ever would.

00:57:19.800 But I

00:57:20.460 will say

00:57:20.780 this for

00:57:21.160 sure, some

00:57:22.260 portion of

00:57:22.940 it is

00:57:23.620 fake.

00:57:25.420 Some

00:57:25.860 portion of

00:57:26.960 what people

00:57:27.380 are reporting

00:57:27.900 as long

00:57:28.440 COVID is

00:57:29.200 certainly

00:57:30.080 not.

00:57:31.080 I just

00:57:31.380 don't know

00:57:31.740 what percentage

00:57:32.240 that is.

00:57:33.280 So there's

00:57:33.740 on top of

00:57:34.740 whatever is

00:57:36.200 almost certainly

00:57:36.880 a real

00:57:37.300 medical

00:57:37.640 thing.

00:57:38.520 On top

00:57:39.020 of it, there's

00:57:39.660 definitely a

00:57:40.160 mass hysteria.

00:57:41.400 There's a

00:57:41.960 mass hysteria

00:57:42.620 about the

00:57:43.160 shots, and

00:57:44.460 there's a

00:57:44.760 mass hysteria

00:57:45.360 about the

00:57:45.700 COVID and

00:57:46.400 long COVID.

00:57:48.680 If you

00:57:49.300 see somebody

00:57:49.860 with long

00:57:50.360 COVID, how

00:57:52.660 do you know

00:57:53.240 they wouldn't

00:57:54.060 have had a

00:57:54.420 problem anyway?

00:57:58.840 Well, how

00:57:59.440 do you know?

00:58:00.420 If you take

00:58:01.200 a bunch of

00:58:01.600 people and

00:58:01.980 make them

00:58:02.380 sedentary for

00:58:03.240 two years,

00:58:03.860 and you ruin

00:58:04.240 their mental

00:58:04.680 health, and

00:58:05.720 you make

00:58:06.060 them fat and 0.98

00:58:07.040 overweight, and 0.96

00:58:08.520 then they

00:58:08.820 complain later

00:58:09.500 that they

00:58:09.820 have a

00:58:10.220 constellation of

00:58:11.260 different

00:58:11.580 symptoms?

00:58:13.360 See, here's

00:58:14.000 the tell for

00:58:16.160 a mass

00:58:16.780 hysteria.

00:58:18.240 This is what

00:58:19.060 would make me

00:58:19.680 believe long

00:58:20.400 COVID was

00:58:20.980 real.

00:58:22.040 Every time we

00:58:22.720 see long

00:58:23.200 COVID, it's

00:58:24.220 the same

00:58:24.700 symptom.

00:58:26.080 It's always

00:58:26.600 brain fog,

00:58:27.780 let's just

00:58:28.320 say.

00:58:29.120 But people

00:58:29.840 don't do

00:58:30.160 that.

00:58:30.920 They say,

00:58:31.480 oh, I have

00:58:31.900 15 different

00:58:33.240 problems.

00:58:35.080 And the

00:58:35.700 next person

00:58:36.180 will come

00:58:36.480 in and

00:58:36.700 go, well, I

00:58:37.260 have 15

00:58:37.720 problems, too.

00:58:38.780 They're not

00:58:39.200 even the same

00:58:39.740 as the last

00:58:40.260 person.

00:58:41.840 That's a

00:58:42.420 tell for

00:58:42.780 mass hysteria.

00:58:44.820 Not a

00:58:45.480 guarantee.

00:58:47.060 Not a

00:58:47.500 guarantee.

00:58:47.940 It's entirely

00:58:48.580 medically

00:58:49.080 possible that

00:58:50.260 one thing

00:58:50.760 could cause a

00:58:51.420 variety of

00:58:52.120 symptoms in

00:58:52.720 lots of

00:58:53.020 different realms.

00:58:53.920 It's just

00:58:54.380 unlikely.

00:58:55.700 It's just

00:58:56.140 unlikely.

00:58:57.580 If you see

00:58:58.520 that possibility,

00:58:59.520 you go, well,

00:59:00.240 maybe.

00:59:00.520 But a

00:59:01.460 mass hysteria

00:59:02.220 would be

00:59:02.580 like, I

00:59:03.640 don't know,

00:59:04.140 80% of

00:59:04.920 the time,

00:59:05.260 that would

00:59:05.500 be the

00:59:05.800 explanation.

00:59:07.160 Probably,

00:59:07.780 probably.

00:59:09.600 So too

00:59:10.640 many, too

00:59:11.420 many explanations

00:59:12.240 for a thing

00:59:12.900 means it's

00:59:13.780 probably false.

00:59:15.140 And too

00:59:15.880 many symptoms

00:59:16.460 for a thing

00:59:17.100 is a real

00:59:19.060 strong signal

00:59:19.920 that they're

00:59:20.500 not all

00:59:20.900 real.

00:59:22.640 If something

00:59:23.500 is real,

00:59:25.180 to either

00:59:25.500 the long

00:59:25.980 COVID or

00:59:26.440 the long

00:59:26.960 vaccination,

00:59:27.840 I guess,

00:59:28.360 if there's

00:59:28.900 something real,

00:59:29.460 probably the

00:59:30.880 total constellation

00:59:31.800 of symptoms

00:59:32.880 is in the

00:59:34.160 three or

00:59:35.320 fewer.

00:59:36.940 But when

00:59:37.340 you see

00:59:37.640 15,

00:59:39.380 there's

00:59:39.840 something else

00:59:40.420 going on

00:59:40.840 top.

00:59:41.220 On top of

00:59:42.060 whatever's

00:59:42.480 real,

00:59:42.760 there's

00:59:42.900 something

00:59:43.140 not real

00:59:43.620 happening.

00:59:45.960 Same thing

00:59:46.700 I said

00:59:47.240 about the

00:59:47.980 so-called

00:59:48.580 sonic secret

00:59:50.260 weapon being

00:59:50.960 used on the

00:59:51.500 embassies,

00:59:52.060 which we

00:59:52.380 now believe

00:59:52.980 did not

00:59:53.580 exist.

00:59:54.700 But yet,

00:59:55.240 there were

00:59:55.420 all these

00:59:55.720 people with

00:59:56.200 real problems.

00:59:57.700 The people

00:59:58.100 who were

00:59:58.360 diagnosed with

00:59:59.100 all kinds

00:59:59.460 of problems

00:59:59.940 from what

01:00:00.380 they thought

01:00:00.760 could have

01:00:01.140 been a

01:00:01.840 secret sonic

01:00:02.600 weapon,

01:00:03.740 they had

01:00:04.720 real problems.

01:00:06.400 So just

01:00:07.160 like these

01:00:07.620 COVID people

01:00:08.360 and maybe

01:00:09.540 vaccination

01:00:10.000 injury,

01:00:10.800 but we

01:00:11.040 don't know,

01:00:12.060 they probably

01:00:13.200 have real

01:00:13.640 problems.

01:00:15.400 But people

01:00:16.240 do.

01:00:17.440 People just

01:00:18.040 have real

01:00:18.440 problems.

01:00:21.520 All right.

01:00:23.760 Rasmussen

01:00:24.240 did a poll

01:00:25.400 on Trump

01:00:25.900 and said

01:00:26.540 52%

01:00:27.380 of likely

01:00:27.960 voters

01:00:28.520 view

01:00:29.240 Trump

01:00:29.560 favorably.

01:00:31.120 Does that

01:00:31.500 sound

01:00:31.760 possible?

01:00:33.820 We're

01:00:34.300 talking not,

01:00:35.460 we're not

01:00:35.860 talking

01:00:36.140 Republicans,

01:00:36.940 we're talking

01:00:37.400 all registered

01:00:39.020 voters.

01:00:40.440 52%

01:00:41.360 of them

01:00:41.720 have a

01:00:42.260 positive

01:00:42.960 feeling.

01:00:44.300 Do you

01:00:44.600 think it's

01:00:44.960 because things

01:00:45.820 are going

01:00:46.160 so poorly

01:00:46.800 that everything

01:00:48.440 Trump did

01:00:49.080 looked smarter?

01:00:50.360 Which was

01:00:51.140 one of my

01:00:51.580 best predictions,

01:00:52.420 wasn't it?

01:00:52.840 Do you

01:00:54.680 remember when

01:00:55.100 I predicted

01:00:55.520 that?

01:00:56.400 When he

01:00:56.760 lost, I

01:00:57.240 said every

01:00:57.900 day he's

01:00:58.520 going to

01:00:58.720 look better.

01:01:00.080 And part

01:01:00.560 of the

01:01:00.740 reason I

01:01:01.120 said was

01:01:01.620 because the

01:01:02.320 Democrats

01:01:02.740 either have

01:01:03.300 to do

01:01:03.660 what he

01:01:04.000 did,

01:01:05.040 the stuff

01:01:05.460 that works,

01:01:06.160 or they

01:01:06.660 have to do

01:01:07.020 the opposite

01:01:07.620 of what he

01:01:08.220 did and

01:01:08.780 it's going

01:01:09.120 to fail

01:01:09.500 miserably 0.88

01:01:10.060 and you're 0.82

01:01:10.420 going to

01:01:10.540 see it,

01:01:11.280 such as

01:01:11.820 the border.

01:01:13.380 Biden

01:01:13.860 just sort

01:01:14.460 of had to

01:01:14.740 do whatever

01:01:15.220 Trump

01:01:15.900 didn't,

01:01:17.000 and a

01:01:17.540 huge failure.

01:01:18.320 Everybody

01:01:18.580 can see it.

01:01:19.540 What about

01:01:19.940 the war in

01:01:20.400 Ukraine?

01:01:21.540 We know

01:01:21.960 how Trump

01:01:22.480 usually handled

01:01:23.340 stuff by

01:01:24.440 threatening and

01:01:25.280 being so

01:01:25.720 unpredictable that

01:01:26.520 nobody wanted

01:01:27.060 to mess with

01:01:27.580 him.

01:01:28.380 Don't know

01:01:28.780 that that

01:01:29.120 would have

01:01:29.400 worked every

01:01:30.340 time.

01:01:31.220 Don't know

01:01:31.700 that it

01:01:31.980 would have

01:01:32.260 worked in

01:01:32.980 this specific

01:01:33.520 case in

01:01:34.040 Ukraine.

01:01:35.320 But everybody

01:01:35.880 can see that

01:01:36.640 he had a

01:01:37.080 process that

01:01:37.820 worked and

01:01:39.220 Biden's got

01:01:39.960 us into a

01:01:40.460 major war.

01:01:42.180 It's hard to

01:01:42.960 miss that.

01:01:44.260 Everybody can

01:01:44.800 see that the

01:01:45.340 economy seemed

01:01:46.080 good under

01:01:46.660 Trump and

01:01:47.940 now not so

01:01:48.560 good.

01:01:50.100 Now, of

01:01:50.760 course, the

01:01:51.080 Democrats

01:01:51.380 will blame

01:01:51.980 Trump for

01:01:53.000 weakening

01:01:54.320 Dodd-Frank,

01:01:55.140 but they'll

01:01:55.380 never explain

01:01:56.080 how that's

01:01:57.500 connected.

01:01:59.740 Yeah.

01:02:00.480 I don't know.

01:02:01.120 Maybe it's

01:02:01.620 real.

01:02:02.640 Maybe it's

01:02:03.140 real.

01:02:03.660 I wonder if

01:02:04.620 there's just a

01:02:05.160 polling problem

01:02:06.680 here.

01:02:07.200 But typically

01:02:07.840 you'd get

01:02:08.500 Trump under

01:02:11.140 reported,

01:02:13.180 right?

01:02:13.560 His supporters

01:02:15.040 would be

01:02:15.440 under reported

01:02:16.140 typically.

01:02:17.200 But now it

01:02:17.720 seems the

01:02:18.080 other way.

01:02:18.780 I don't know.

01:02:19.100 This one's

01:02:20.080 a puzzler.

01:02:21.720 All right.

01:02:22.720 Let's check

01:02:23.340 on a couple

01:02:23.940 of my

01:02:24.280 predictions.

01:02:25.400 Now, some

01:02:26.660 of you get

01:02:27.080 annoyed when

01:02:28.500 I tell you I

01:02:29.220 got a prediction

01:02:29.820 right.

01:02:30.860 But you should

01:02:31.660 understand that

01:02:32.360 that's what we

01:02:33.660 do here.

01:02:34.560 I make

01:02:34.980 predictions, and

01:02:36.600 then later I

01:02:37.340 tell you if

01:02:37.740 they were wrong

01:02:38.240 or right.

01:02:39.200 And that's how

01:02:39.780 you can judge

01:02:40.500 whether I'm

01:02:41.140 good at

01:02:41.540 predicting.

01:02:42.300 And then

01:02:42.640 maybe we

01:02:43.040 learn something

01:02:43.580 about what

01:02:44.000 kind of things

01:02:44.580 you can and

01:02:45.120 cannot predict.

01:02:46.320 So part of

01:02:46.920 the fun is I

01:02:47.480 have to check

01:02:47.880 my predictions.

01:02:49.100 So the

01:02:50.400 bragging, if

01:02:51.300 I get one

01:02:51.740 right, I

01:02:52.540 can't help

01:02:52.900 that because

01:02:53.900 I do the

01:02:54.480 ones that I

01:02:54.840 get wrong

01:02:55.200 as well.

01:02:57.340 How many

01:02:58.060 of the 2,000

01:02:58.900 mules have

01:02:59.420 been found

01:02:59.820 so far?

01:03:01.240 Anybody?

01:03:02.720 Did we find

01:03:03.320 those 2,000

01:03:04.160 mules, the

01:03:05.360 ones who

01:03:05.860 allegedly were

01:03:08.160 dropping off

01:03:08.800 all of those

01:03:09.420 ballots?

01:03:10.300 And we had

01:03:10.780 cameras, and

01:03:11.820 we had cell

01:03:13.140 phone data.

01:03:14.740 Now, we

01:03:15.000 didn't have

01:03:15.320 cameras everywhere,

01:03:16.140 but we had

01:03:16.560 cell phone data.

01:03:17.340 I believe

01:03:18.660 zero have

01:03:19.240 been found.

01:03:20.420 Can somebody

01:03:20.960 confirm?

01:03:22.340 We found

01:03:22.880 zero.

01:03:23.580 Do you

01:03:23.820 remember my

01:03:24.320 prediction?

01:03:26.720 My prediction

01:03:27.660 was the

01:03:28.400 lack of

01:03:29.000 finding a

01:03:29.920 mule, even

01:03:31.180 at the

01:03:31.480 beginning, was

01:03:33.180 a huge red

01:03:34.740 flag.

01:03:35.940 And I said,

01:03:36.900 you're going to

01:03:37.240 have to wait

01:03:37.640 to see if

01:03:38.020 they find a

01:03:38.580 mule.

01:03:39.300 If they

01:03:39.820 find no

01:03:40.360 mules, that's 1.00

01:03:42.460 all you need

01:03:42.860 to know.

01:03:43.220 If they

01:03:45.220 do find

01:03:45.720 mules, if

01:03:47.140 they had

01:03:47.400 found two

01:03:47.980 mules, I

01:03:49.940 would be

01:03:50.320 pretty persuaded

01:03:51.420 that there

01:03:52.220 are more

01:03:52.520 mules, but

01:03:54.260 zero mules.

01:03:56.260 Zero.

01:03:57.780 So I'm

01:03:58.560 going to

01:03:58.720 call this

01:03:59.120 an accurate,

01:04:00.880 maybe not

01:04:01.780 prediction, but

01:04:02.880 a framing of

01:04:03.740 it.

01:04:04.620 The accurate

01:04:05.280 framing was

01:04:06.100 there's

01:04:06.660 something

01:04:06.960 obviously

01:04:07.520 missing, which

01:04:08.840 is at least

01:04:09.380 one mule,

01:04:09.980 and that

01:04:11.420 if that's

01:04:12.580 not produced

01:04:13.220 in a fairly

01:04:13.980 short amount

01:04:14.580 of time, let's

01:04:15.720 say give it a

01:04:16.260 year.

01:04:16.980 A year?

01:04:17.800 Is a year

01:04:18.240 enough?

01:04:18.940 I think a

01:04:19.340 year is

01:04:19.580 enough.

01:04:20.640 Give it a

01:04:21.080 year and

01:04:21.680 then form

01:04:22.680 your opinion.

01:04:23.780 So we've

01:04:24.380 given it a

01:04:24.860 year and

01:04:26.200 now I

01:04:26.560 formed my

01:04:26.980 opinion that

01:04:28.140 it was not

01:04:28.640 persuasive.

01:04:31.100 Anybody

01:04:31.540 disagree?

01:04:33.420 So I

01:04:34.000 think that

01:04:34.300 I'm going to

01:04:35.740 claim that as

01:04:36.620 a reasonable

01:04:38.020 take.

01:04:38.740 It wasn't a

01:04:39.280 prediction.

01:04:39.980 Because I

01:04:40.480 couldn't

01:04:40.720 predict which

01:04:41.260 way it

01:04:41.480 would go.

01:04:42.120 But it

01:04:42.540 was a

01:04:42.780 reasonable

01:04:43.080 take.

01:04:43.580 It was a

01:04:43.880 wait-and-see

01:04:44.260 take.

01:04:44.740 And I

01:04:44.920 think that

01:04:45.180 was the

01:04:45.780 right way.

01:04:46.520 All right.

01:04:47.000 Here's one

01:04:47.600 that I

01:04:49.480 can't even

01:04:49.900 pretend not

01:04:50.520 to brag

01:04:50.940 about this

01:04:51.380 one.

01:04:52.480 This is

01:04:52.920 going to

01:04:53.060 be a

01:04:53.260 little bit

01:04:53.600 braggy.

01:04:56.180 I've been

01:04:56.720 telling you

01:04:57.140 that I

01:04:57.440 think Putin

01:04:57.940 is trying

01:04:58.360 to degrade

01:04:59.220 the Wagner

01:04:59.740 group.

01:05:00.840 And he

01:05:01.060 actually wants

01:05:01.920 his own

01:05:02.260 side to

01:05:02.880 get ground

01:05:03.580 down so

01:05:04.700 that Wagner

01:05:05.180 doesn't have

01:05:05.680 too much

01:05:06.380 power in

01:05:06.880 Russia after

01:05:07.600 it's done.

01:05:08.820 Well, it

01:05:09.460 turns out

01:05:09.920 that's a

01:05:10.580 growing

01:05:10.840 opinion.

01:05:12.460 So this

01:05:13.120 is from

01:05:13.700 CNN, I

01:05:15.700 think,

01:05:16.500 talking about

01:05:17.220 the Wagner

01:05:17.560 group.

01:05:18.120 And apparently

01:05:19.220 there are

01:05:20.160 people who

01:05:21.360 know what

01:05:21.700 they're talking

01:05:22.140 about who

01:05:22.880 are now

01:05:23.160 agreeing with

01:05:23.700 that take.

01:05:24.700 Let me read

01:05:25.160 this.

01:05:25.960 From CNN,

01:05:26.620 he spent

01:05:26.940 heavily,

01:05:27.960 this is

01:05:29.160 Per Grosian,

01:05:30.020 the head of

01:05:30.300 the Wagner

01:05:30.620 group,

01:05:31.420 he spent

01:05:31.780 heavily on

01:05:32.300 recruiting as

01:05:32.860 many 40,000

01:05:33.660 prisoners to

01:05:34.720 throw into the

01:05:35.380 fight.

01:05:35.700 but they've

01:05:37.000 had staggering

01:05:37.680 losses and

01:05:38.700 they're

01:05:38.860 complaining about

01:05:39.480 not having

01:05:40.120 enough

01:05:40.380 ammunitions

01:05:41.100 and not

01:05:42.520 having

01:05:42.760 reinforcements

01:05:43.500 and stuff.

01:05:45.480 All while

01:05:46.280 accusing Russia's 0.66

01:05:47.360 Ministry of

01:05:47.920 Defense of

01:05:49.000 trying to

01:05:49.940 strangle his

01:05:50.640 forces.

01:05:52.280 So right

01:05:52.780 now,

01:05:53.360 Wagner,

01:05:54.400 the head of

01:05:54.760 the Wagner

01:05:55.120 group,

01:05:55.860 Per Grosian,

01:05:56.740 is saying

01:05:57.180 what I

01:05:57.580 said,

01:05:58.620 that it's

01:05:59.060 intentional.

01:05:59.760 It's not a

01:06:00.220 shortage.

01:06:01.160 That Russia is

01:06:01.980 trying to

01:06:02.660 take him

01:06:03.300 out.

01:06:03.520 Now,

01:06:04.380 if he's

01:06:04.740 the only

01:06:04.960 one who

01:06:05.220 said it,

01:06:05.580 well,

01:06:05.720 that wouldn't

01:06:05.980 be that

01:06:06.300 persuasive,

01:06:06.920 because maybe

01:06:07.300 that's just

01:06:07.680 a way to

01:06:07.940 get more

01:06:08.240 ammo.

01:06:09.200 But,

01:06:09.580 here's what

01:06:10.140 CNN says,

01:06:11.300 quote,

01:06:12.100 many analysts,

01:06:14.420 many analysts

01:06:15.460 think his

01:06:17.700 suspicions are

01:06:18.440 well-founded,

01:06:19.660 that Russia's 0.89

01:06:20.320 military

01:06:20.700 establishment

01:06:21.460 is using

01:06:22.760 the Bakhmut 1.00

01:06:23.660 meat grinder 0.79

01:06:24.760 to cut him 0.83

01:06:25.840 down to size 0.78

01:06:26.560 or eliminate 0.98

01:06:27.220 him as a 0.99

01:06:28.080 political force

01:06:29.060 altogether.

01:06:33.520 That's what

01:06:34.940 I predicted.

01:06:36.700 Now,

01:06:37.800 am I the

01:06:38.280 first person

01:06:38.840 you heard

01:06:39.160 say it?

01:06:39.840 Yes or

01:06:40.240 no?

01:06:41.340 I believe

01:06:41.860 I'm the

01:06:42.260 first public

01:06:43.320 person who

01:06:43.820 said,

01:06:44.540 it looks to

01:06:45.120 me that

01:06:45.620 Putin wants 1.00

01:06:46.640 to kill 1.00

01:06:47.100 his own 1.00

01:06:48.580 general.

01:06:50.000 And now

01:06:50.320 that is,

01:06:51.000 according to

01:06:51.560 CNN,

01:06:52.000 it's what

01:06:52.360 many analysts

01:06:53.640 think,

01:06:54.520 and it's

01:06:54.880 what Per Grosian

01:06:55.560 thinks himself.

01:06:57.780 Now,

01:06:58.900 can you give

01:06:59.420 me the win

01:06:59.800 for that?

01:07:02.020 Do I get

01:07:02.760 the win

01:07:03.060 for that?

01:07:03.860 I suppose

01:07:04.420 it's too

01:07:04.760 early to

01:07:05.160 know for

01:07:05.480 sure,

01:07:05.780 right?

01:07:07.060 Can't know

01:07:07.540 for sure,

01:07:08.100 because it

01:07:08.400 was a little

01:07:08.840 bit of a

01:07:09.580 Putin mind

01:07:10.540 reading situation.

01:07:11.880 But I did

01:07:12.500 front run

01:07:13.220 the experts.

01:07:15.080 So I guess

01:07:15.740 that's the

01:07:16.040 only thing

01:07:16.320 I could

01:07:16.620 claim.

01:07:17.420 I'll claim

01:07:17.900 that I saw

01:07:19.140 it earlier

01:07:20.200 than the

01:07:20.640 experts are

01:07:21.200 saying it

01:07:21.560 in public.

01:07:22.080 They may

01:07:22.320 have seen

01:07:22.620 it earlier

01:07:23.100 privately.

01:07:26.500 Now,

01:07:27.300 I think

01:07:28.780 that was

01:07:29.060 one of my

01:07:29.440 best

01:07:29.660 predictions.

01:07:31.600 Now,

01:07:31.940 that prediction

01:07:32.420 here's what

01:07:33.700 you learn

01:07:34.080 from the

01:07:34.440 predictions.

01:07:36.200 What you

01:07:36.940 learn is

01:07:37.580 which kinds

01:07:38.580 of predictions

01:07:39.140 will work.

01:07:40.740 I believe

01:07:41.520 that when

01:07:41.860 I make

01:07:42.180 a prediction

01:07:42.640 that's based

01:07:43.160 on organizational

01:07:44.360 infighting,

01:07:45.760 you should

01:07:46.700 pay attention.

01:07:48.560 All right?

01:07:49.020 I'm really,

01:07:50.100 really good

01:07:50.660 at the category

01:07:51.980 of organizational

01:07:53.240 intrigue

01:07:55.080 and infighting.

01:07:56.060 It's sort

01:07:56.560 of the whole

01:07:56.920 Dilbert realm.

01:07:58.420 It's what I do

01:07:58.940 for a living

01:07:59.420 is figuring

01:08:00.180 out how

01:08:00.660 people deal

01:08:01.200 with each

01:08:01.520 other in

01:08:01.940 group situations.

01:08:03.900 So I think

01:08:04.560 I just saw

01:08:05.040 it faster

01:08:05.580 because my

01:08:06.560 brain is

01:08:07.060 tuned to

01:08:07.720 group intrigue.

01:08:10.440 Like,

01:08:10.900 group intrigue

01:08:11.600 is what I

01:08:11.980 focus on

01:08:12.540 and write

01:08:12.860 about every

01:08:13.600 day.

01:08:14.640 It's group

01:08:15.240 intrigue.

01:08:16.160 And this

01:08:16.500 was group

01:08:17.000 intrigue,

01:08:17.800 one group

01:08:18.240 against another.

01:08:19.820 So I think

01:08:21.360 I just had

01:08:21.800 a filter

01:08:22.220 that works.

01:08:23.160 Now,

01:08:23.360 what should

01:08:23.820 you not

01:08:24.340 believe me

01:08:24.880 on?

01:08:25.060 I think

01:08:26.060 I'm also

01:08:26.420 pretty good

01:08:26.800 at detecting

01:08:27.420 BS.

01:08:28.980 You know,

01:08:29.300 not 100%.

01:08:30.100 But there

01:08:31.400 are definitely

01:08:31.800 things you

01:08:32.280 shouldn't

01:08:32.660 trust me

01:08:33.100 on.

01:08:33.500 I'll give

01:08:33.820 you an 0.64

01:08:34.000 example.

01:08:34.700 When I

01:08:35.100 predicted

01:08:35.480 who Trump

01:08:36.200 would pick

01:08:36.580 for a

01:08:36.880 vice

01:08:37.080 president,

01:08:38.860 don't

01:08:39.460 believe me

01:08:39.860 on that.

01:08:41.180 That's

01:08:41.680 something

01:08:42.020 that you'd

01:08:43.360 have to be

01:08:43.660 a real

01:08:44.060 insider to

01:08:44.820 even know

01:08:45.700 what's

01:08:45.940 going on

01:08:46.320 there.

01:08:46.700 Because

01:08:47.000 there's

01:08:47.200 lots of

01:08:47.540 deal

01:08:47.840 making

01:08:48.140 and,

01:08:49.240 you know,

01:08:49.400 what state

01:08:50.120 is this

01:08:50.720 and who

01:08:51.300 did this

01:08:51.800 and who

01:08:52.660 likes whom,

01:08:53.660 who gets

01:08:54.060 along personally.

01:08:55.060 I can't

01:08:55.720 predict any

01:08:56.180 of that.

01:08:58.140 But,

01:08:58.900 yeah,

01:09:01.560 I can't

01:09:02.060 predict any

01:09:02.480 of that.

01:09:03.940 All right.

01:09:06.240 I saw a

01:09:07.100 story,

01:09:08.240 I think

01:09:08.820 this was

01:09:09.240 also CNN,

01:09:10.900 where nearly

01:09:11.560 90% of

01:09:12.480 blueberries and

01:09:13.160 green bean

01:09:13.600 samples had

01:09:14.260 concerning

01:09:14.980 findings of

01:09:16.560 insecticides.

01:09:19.000 Like,

01:09:19.580 a lot.

01:09:20.840 Like,

01:09:21.240 51 different

01:09:22.540 pesticides.

01:09:23.020 pesticides.

01:09:24.300 Now,

01:09:24.620 not on

01:09:25.020 each bean,

01:09:26.020 but,

01:09:26.320 you know,

01:09:26.680 beans in

01:09:27.180 general,

01:09:27.540 I guess,

01:09:27.840 had 51

01:09:28.300 different

01:09:28.680 pesticides.

01:09:29.600 And I

01:09:29.920 guess there

01:09:30.200 are some

01:09:30.640 types of

01:09:32.000 foods that

01:09:32.560 have fewer

01:09:33.800 pesticides,

01:09:34.860 but blueberries

01:09:35.660 and beans

01:09:36.440 have tons.

01:09:38.340 Now,

01:09:39.360 have we not

01:09:40.320 been told by

01:09:40.960 experts forever

01:09:41.840 to eat some

01:09:43.320 more blueberries

01:09:43.900 and beans?

01:09:44.640 Am I

01:09:46.400 wrong that

01:09:46.880 blueberries and

01:09:47.520 beans have

01:09:47.960 always been

01:09:48.420 like right

01:09:49.000 on the

01:09:49.240 high end

01:09:50.220 of things

01:09:50.800 that are

01:09:51.040 good for

01:09:51.400 you?

01:09:52.420 And science

01:09:53.100 didn't stop

01:09:54.960 to tell us,

01:09:56.680 however,

01:09:58.020 however,

01:09:58.620 we don't like

01:09:59.080 to say this,

01:10:00.240 they're very,

01:10:01.060 very good for

01:10:01.660 you,

01:10:02.400 and also

01:10:03.240 coated with

01:10:03.960 poison.

01:10:05.640 Well,

01:10:06.300 but the

01:10:06.640 blueberry is

01:10:07.140 good for

01:10:07.480 you.

01:10:08.300 Can I buy

01:10:09.540 a blueberry

01:10:09.960 that's not

01:10:10.700 coated with

01:10:11.360 pesticides?

01:10:11.760 Well,

01:10:13.840 that's not

01:10:14.320 what we're

01:10:14.620 talking about,

01:10:15.160 that's another

01:10:15.600 issue,

01:10:16.260 but if you

01:10:16.800 could get

01:10:17.140 the blueberry,

01:10:18.800 like if you

01:10:19.300 could somehow

01:10:19.720 get it out

01:10:20.420 from underneath

01:10:21.080 all the

01:10:21.480 pesticides that

01:10:22.420 have,

01:10:22.920 you know,

01:10:23.600 completely

01:10:24.220 absorbed within

01:10:25.100 it,

01:10:25.880 if you could

01:10:26.420 do that,

01:10:27.400 that blueberry

01:10:28.220 would be good

01:10:28.880 for you.

01:10:29.600 And then you

01:10:30.080 say,

01:10:30.420 all right,

01:10:30.800 all right,

01:10:31.640 if I could

01:10:32.360 get the

01:10:32.680 pesticides off

01:10:33.460 it that I

01:10:33.980 can't,

01:10:34.940 the blueberry

01:10:35.440 would be good

01:10:36.160 for me,

01:10:36.520 hypothetically,

01:10:38.400 but are you

01:10:40.220 the same

01:10:40.620 people that

01:10:41.060 told me

01:10:41.380 that the

01:10:41.740 food pyramid

01:10:42.440 was the

01:10:42.900 way to

01:10:43.160 eat?

01:10:44.740 Well,

01:10:45.400 yes,

01:10:46.640 yes.

01:10:48.280 Wait a

01:10:48.680 minute,

01:10:49.300 and that

01:10:49.640 was complete 1.00

01:10:50.200 bullshit, 1.00

01:10:50.700 wasn't it? 1.00

01:10:52.320 Maybe,

01:10:53.460 maybe a

01:10:54.100 little bit.

01:10:55.140 So why

01:10:55.700 would I

01:10:56.000 believe anything

01:10:57.340 you say about

01:10:58.040 blueberries being

01:10:58.800 good for me?

01:11:00.440 Because we're

01:11:01.220 scientists,

01:11:02.160 we're scientists.

01:11:05.000 I don't know

01:11:05.820 what to believe.

01:11:06.940 My current

01:11:07.580 belief is that

01:11:08.400 our food,

01:11:09.060 our food

01:11:10.220 supplies are

01:11:11.680 killing us.

01:11:13.760 I don't

01:11:14.460 think that's

01:11:14.900 a strong

01:11:15.280 statement.

01:11:16.400 I think

01:11:16.760 that our

01:11:17.060 food,

01:11:18.620 that,

01:11:20.320 in the

01:11:20.780 same way

01:11:21.180 that maybe

01:11:21.760 Dodd-Frank

01:11:22.480 didn't do a

01:11:23.140 good job

01:11:23.640 on regulation,

01:11:25.140 maybe,

01:11:25.680 I don't know,

01:11:26.760 I feel like

01:11:28.320 our food

01:11:28.780 industry is

01:11:29.420 unregulated

01:11:30.240 in the sense

01:11:30.880 that they

01:11:31.920 can sell us

01:11:32.540 poison and

01:11:33.440 we can't do

01:11:33.940 anything about

01:11:34.520 it because we

01:11:34.980 don't have

01:11:35.300 options.

01:11:35.720 like even

01:11:36.800 the free

01:11:37.260 market can't

01:11:38.820 help us

01:11:39.360 because we

01:11:40.540 don't have

01:11:40.820 good options.

01:11:42.180 Now,

01:11:42.700 I kind of

01:11:43.280 get that you

01:11:43.780 need the

01:11:44.120 pesticides to

01:11:44.940 get the

01:11:45.240 quantity,

01:11:46.420 but is it

01:11:47.460 literally true

01:11:48.180 that we

01:11:48.660 decided to

01:11:49.680 keep people

01:11:50.240 from starving

01:11:50.900 but we'd

01:11:52.600 have to

01:11:52.940 poison them?

01:11:55.200 So you

01:11:55.860 won't starve,

01:11:56.640 so you're

01:11:56.860 not going to

01:11:57.200 die this

01:11:57.660 week,

01:11:58.360 but I

01:11:59.100 guarantee you

01:11:59.740 your 60s

01:12:00.440 aren't going

01:12:00.740 to work out

01:12:01.180 well for you

01:12:01.840 because you've

01:12:02.520 been eating

01:12:02.860 poison for

01:12:03.580 60 years.

01:12:05.440 I feel like

01:12:06.040 that's a

01:12:06.380 conscious choice

01:12:07.140 that we

01:12:08.580 couldn't grow

01:12:09.640 enough food

01:12:10.300 without making

01:12:12.460 it unhealthy.

01:12:13.660 So we

01:12:14.340 choose unhealthy

01:12:15.120 food and

01:12:16.340 go,

01:12:16.760 well,

01:12:16.860 it's the

01:12:17.040 best we

01:12:17.320 can do.

01:12:20.260 Grow your

01:12:20.940 own.

01:12:22.080 So I've

01:12:22.440 been doing

01:12:22.760 an experiment

01:12:23.320 with my

01:12:24.000 own health.

01:12:25.700 When I

01:12:26.380 can,

01:12:26.920 which is

01:12:27.240 harder than

01:12:27.740 you think,

01:12:28.740 I'm trying

01:12:29.180 to go a

01:12:29.680 full day

01:12:30.280 with only

01:12:31.660 eating things

01:12:32.280 that don't

01:12:32.560 have

01:12:32.780 preservatives

01:12:33.520 and weird

01:12:33.880 stuff on

01:12:34.300 it.

01:12:34.940 So I'll

01:12:35.560 add some

01:12:36.040 butter to

01:12:36.880 some broccoli,

01:12:37.780 but I won't

01:12:38.220 go crazy

01:12:38.880 beyond that.

01:12:40.240 And I

01:12:41.500 feel completely

01:12:42.220 better.

01:12:43.680 Like,

01:12:44.040 I feel that

01:12:44.720 when I eat

01:12:45.260 clean,

01:12:46.300 I actually

01:12:46.960 feel better,

01:12:47.660 and it

01:12:47.860 feels immediate.

01:12:50.360 It doesn't

01:12:50.860 feel like,

01:12:51.980 I don't know,

01:12:52.720 you know,

01:12:53.040 in general,

01:12:53.760 maybe those

01:12:54.220 days were

01:12:54.600 better.

01:12:54.900 No,

01:12:55.080 it feels

01:12:55.440 like today,

01:12:57.020 I actually

01:12:58.100 feel better.

01:12:59.600 Because I've

01:13:00.240 been doing

01:13:00.500 this lately,

01:13:01.160 especially.

01:13:01.540 And when

01:13:03.660 I look at

01:13:04.100 any kind

01:13:04.560 of packaging

01:13:05.100 that's got

01:13:05.620 this full

01:13:06.240 paragraph of

01:13:07.100 chemicals in

01:13:07.820 it,

01:13:08.600 if I avoid

01:13:09.260 those,

01:13:09.700 the ones that

01:13:10.100 have the

01:13:10.480 full paragraph

01:13:11.040 of chemicals,

01:13:13.460 my nasal

01:13:14.940 passages don't

01:13:16.720 clog up,

01:13:18.000 I don't get

01:13:18.980 inflammation,

01:13:20.980 like it doesn't

01:13:21.620 hurt to stand

01:13:22.500 up.

01:13:23.700 I mean,

01:13:23.920 just basic

01:13:24.660 pain of life

01:13:26.120 goes away

01:13:26.800 if I just

01:13:28.020 eat clean

01:13:28.520 for two

01:13:29.360 days,

01:13:29.740 basically.

01:13:30.820 Try it.

01:13:31.740 So here's

01:13:32.340 a recommendation.

01:13:33.940 I know

01:13:34.760 that you

01:13:35.320 would not

01:13:35.700 enjoy the

01:13:36.380 food if

01:13:36.960 you tried

01:13:37.360 this,

01:13:38.140 because it

01:13:39.420 would be

01:13:39.580 like,

01:13:40.020 you know,

01:13:40.400 eat a lean

01:13:41.000 steak and

01:13:42.380 have some

01:13:42.760 vegetables with

01:13:43.840 little or

01:13:44.940 nothing on

01:13:45.400 them,

01:13:46.120 maybe a

01:13:46.460 little butter

01:13:46.920 or pepper

01:13:47.380 or something,

01:13:48.060 right?

01:13:48.820 And just

01:13:49.760 try it for

01:13:50.460 two days.

01:13:52.340 Try for

01:13:52.800 two days

01:13:53.520 eating nothing

01:13:54.380 that has a

01:13:55.080 paragraph of

01:13:55.940 additives.

01:13:57.580 And feel

01:13:57.960 if you feel

01:13:58.920 different.

01:14:00.700 I believe

01:14:01.240 you will.

01:14:02.500 I believe

01:14:03.000 you will.

01:14:04.240 So no

01:14:04.880 fast food,

01:14:06.340 nothing from

01:14:07.420 a can or

01:14:08.340 a processed

01:14:08.940 box,

01:14:09.900 just like if

01:14:10.780 you can hold

01:14:11.240 the broccoli

01:14:11.700 in your hand

01:14:12.340 and get

01:14:12.800 organic,

01:14:13.640 right?

01:14:14.180 Now,

01:14:14.400 I don't

01:14:14.600 think the

01:14:15.000 pesticides

01:14:15.440 give you

01:14:16.960 any immediate

01:14:17.740 bad feeling.

01:14:18.720 I just worry

01:14:19.340 about them

01:14:19.720 in the long

01:14:20.160 term,

01:14:20.600 sort of a

01:14:21.060 cumulative

01:14:21.400 thing.

01:14:22.440 But the

01:14:23.240 additives,

01:14:24.620 the additives

01:14:25.920 I believe

01:14:26.960 immediately

01:14:27.520 make you

01:14:28.080 feel bad.

01:14:29.080 I believe

01:14:29.540 they immediately

01:14:30.480 make you

01:14:30.980 feel bad,

01:14:31.620 as in the

01:14:32.100 same day.

01:14:33.640 The

01:14:33.820 sulfites are

01:14:34.480 my big

01:14:35.480 problem.

01:14:36.440 Sulfites

01:14:36.920 are just

01:14:38.980 my nemesis.

01:14:42.520 And by

01:14:43.100 the way,

01:14:43.360 did you know

01:14:43.720 the sulfites

01:14:44.320 are not always

01:14:44.980 listed in the

01:14:46.420 ingredients?

01:14:47.600 There's some

01:14:48.120 kind of law

01:14:48.540 that allows

01:14:49.040 them to not

01:14:49.600 list it.

01:14:50.640 It's one of

01:14:51.120 those.

01:14:52.180 It's the thing

01:14:52.760 I'm allergic to

01:14:53.500 and they don't

01:14:53.940 have to list

01:14:54.500 it.

01:14:55.400 So how

01:14:56.760 happy am I

01:14:57.320 about that?

01:14:58.580 I think I'm

01:14:59.300 right about

01:14:59.640 that.

01:14:59.920 I need a

01:15:00.220 fact check

01:15:00.600 on that,

01:15:00.940 but I think

01:15:01.240 I'm right.

01:15:03.280 All right.

01:15:09.780 And that,

01:15:10.580 ladies and 0.98

01:15:10.920 gentlemen,

01:15:11.840 brings us to

01:15:13.580 the conclusion

01:15:14.140 of my

01:15:14.620 prepared

01:15:15.300 remarks.

01:15:16.120 I like to

01:15:19.400 think we're

01:15:19.760 doing important

01:15:20.580 work here.

01:15:22.480 What do you

01:15:23.100 think?

01:15:23.720 Important

01:15:24.120 work?

01:15:25.800 Let me ask

01:15:26.560 you a question

01:15:27.080 because I

01:15:29.040 have to,

01:15:29.900 maybe I've

01:15:30.400 asked this

01:15:30.760 before,

01:15:31.280 so it's

01:15:31.620 going to

01:15:31.820 sound like

01:15:32.180 I'm asking

01:15:32.540 for a

01:15:33.020 compliment or

01:15:33.620 something.

01:15:34.280 I'm not.

01:15:34.940 I'm actually

01:15:35.340 curious about

01:15:36.560 this.

01:15:37.860 And I'm

01:15:38.440 more curious

01:15:38.980 what the

01:15:39.320 YouTube people

01:15:39.940 say because

01:15:40.680 the locals

01:15:41.600 people are

01:15:42.060 going to get

01:15:42.380 the right

01:15:42.680 answer because

01:15:43.240 they know

01:15:43.540 me better.

01:15:43.940 But the

01:15:44.900 YouTube viewers,

01:15:46.140 probably they're

01:15:46.680 more new

01:15:47.080 people in

01:15:47.880 this stream

01:15:48.600 than normal.

01:15:50.500 How many

01:15:51.000 of you on

01:15:51.600 YouTube would

01:15:54.020 say that I

01:15:55.680 have an

01:15:56.380 influence on

01:15:57.700 national

01:15:58.760 political

01:15:59.280 events?

01:16:01.540 That I

01:16:02.460 personally have

01:16:03.320 an influence

01:16:03.940 on national

01:16:05.060 political

01:16:06.040 events?

01:16:07.120 Yes or

01:16:07.440 no?

01:16:09.540 All right.

01:16:10.320 So I'll let

01:16:10.760 you know.

01:16:11.200 On locals,

01:16:11.760 everybody's saying

01:16:13.160 yes, and

01:16:13.860 you're correct.

01:16:15.360 You are

01:16:15.820 correct.

01:16:16.780 I thought

01:16:17.360 there'd be

01:16:17.640 more of a

01:16:18.100 mixture on

01:16:18.860 YouTube.

01:16:19.880 But if you

01:16:20.540 think the

01:16:20.900 answer is

01:16:21.300 no, ask

01:16:23.160 yourself why

01:16:23.760 so many

01:16:24.140 people are

01:16:24.540 saying yes.

01:16:26.940 Right?

01:16:27.880 Yeah.

01:16:31.700 Now, to

01:16:33.500 my point about

01:16:34.640 whether I

01:16:36.080 was canceled

01:16:36.680 for political

01:16:37.500 reasons.

01:16:39.320 Right?

01:16:40.340 Now, keep in

01:16:40.940 mind that nobody

01:16:41.740 on the

01:16:42.820 political

01:16:43.400 right canceled

01:16:44.240 me or

01:16:44.800 believe that

01:16:45.340 I should

01:16:45.660 have been

01:16:45.900 canceled.

01:16:46.840 I think

01:16:47.220 none.

01:16:48.220 On the

01:16:48.680 political left,

01:16:49.400 it was pretty

01:16:49.740 much universal.

01:16:50.600 I should be

01:16:50.960 canceled.

01:16:52.240 Knowing that

01:16:53.000 I influenced

01:16:53.800 politics, do

01:16:56.000 you think the

01:16:56.420 cancellation was

01:16:57.160 political?

01:16:59.420 Do you think

01:16:59.760 it was political?

01:17:02.060 Having just

01:17:02.980 answered that I

01:17:03.700 moved the

01:17:04.460 needle on

01:17:04.980 politics.

01:17:05.440 politics?

01:17:07.680 Yeah.

01:17:08.460 Yeah.

01:17:09.200 Yes.

01:17:10.140 Now, was

01:17:11.900 that obvious

01:17:12.660 in the fog

01:17:14.000 of war?

01:17:15.040 On the day

01:17:15.640 that I was

01:17:16.100 canceled, was

01:17:16.960 it obvious to

01:17:17.780 you that it

01:17:18.140 was a political

01:17:18.740 move and it

01:17:19.900 wasn't so much

01:17:20.600 about anybody's

01:17:21.260 outrage?

01:17:22.260 Was that

01:17:22.620 obvious to

01:17:23.100 you?

01:17:23.920 Locals, people

01:17:24.620 say yes.

01:17:26.860 YouTube, it's a

01:17:27.740 little mixed.

01:17:28.540 Some people are

01:17:29.060 saying no.

01:17:29.940 But now it's

01:17:30.580 obvious, isn't

01:17:31.180 it?

01:17:31.760 Would you agree

01:17:32.300 it's obvious

01:17:32.780 now?

01:17:33.120 And I would

01:17:34.220 say the best

01:17:35.000 evidence of

01:17:35.580 that is that

01:17:36.260 black conservatives

01:17:37.340 didn't have a 0.80

01:17:38.520 problem.

01:17:39.940 They had a

01:17:40.620 reaction and

01:17:42.080 some curiosity

01:17:42.900 and that's all

01:17:44.120 perfectly appropriate.

01:17:45.760 But when they

01:17:46.420 heard the

01:17:46.860 context, they

01:17:47.480 were like,

01:17:47.700 okay, that

01:17:48.040 makes sense.

01:17:49.820 Yeah.

01:17:50.700 So if you

01:17:51.540 believe that

01:17:52.020 this was because

01:17:53.240 I said something

01:17:54.180 outrageous and

01:17:55.040 that's why I

01:17:55.500 got canceled,

01:17:56.820 that's actually

01:17:57.500 fake news.

01:17:59.120 That is

01:17:59.580 actually fake

01:18:00.400 news.

01:18:01.700 It is yet

01:18:02.320 again,

01:18:03.120 another

01:18:03.760 prominent

01:18:04.280 example of

01:18:05.960 basically a

01:18:08.600 hoax.

01:18:09.820 I don't want

01:18:10.620 to call it a

01:18:11.060 hoax because

01:18:11.540 that implies

01:18:12.540 some kind of

01:18:13.420 intention.

01:18:15.620 But with or

01:18:16.300 without intention,

01:18:17.640 and I would

01:18:18.360 also say,

01:18:19.420 regardless of

01:18:20.260 what the

01:18:20.600 thought process

01:18:21.300 was of the

01:18:22.360 people who

01:18:22.740 canceled me,

01:18:23.920 it's still

01:18:24.680 political.

01:18:26.500 Because they

01:18:27.240 wouldn't have

01:18:27.640 made the

01:18:27.980 decision if I 0.94

01:18:28.820 were a black

01:18:29.220 or a Democrat.

01:18:31.020 Everybody

01:18:31.580 knows that.

01:18:33.120 Every one

01:18:33.740 of you

01:18:33.960 knows that

01:18:35.180 if I had 0.83

01:18:35.600 been black 0.91

01:18:36.220 or just a

01:18:36.860 Democrat,

01:18:37.480 I wouldn't

01:18:37.840 have been

01:18:38.100 canceled.

01:18:38.980 Of course

01:18:39.400 not.

01:18:40.360 Of course

01:18:40.760 not.

01:18:41.040 It is 100%

01:18:42.000 political.

01:18:43.600 Which doesn't

01:18:44.440 mean it wasn't

01:18:45.020 offensive.

01:18:46.280 Because remember,

01:18:47.240 I did it to be

01:18:48.200 offensive, to

01:18:49.420 attract attention

01:18:50.180 to what I

01:18:50.900 thought would be

01:18:51.300 a useful point.

01:18:52.660 And still

01:18:53.100 will do that,

01:18:53.640 by the way.

01:18:54.380 It still

01:18:54.720 will be useful.

01:18:55.400 I just

01:18:56.640 have to

01:18:57.100 clean up

01:18:58.520 some things

01:18:58.980 on Prisoner

01:18:59.560 Island first.

01:19:02.400 Progress is

01:19:03.100 good, by the

01:19:03.820 way.

01:19:04.060 Progress is

01:19:04.600 good.

01:19:05.920 Now, do

01:19:06.800 you think

01:19:07.120 that I've

01:19:07.500 already moved

01:19:08.900 the battleship 0.68

01:19:09.800 of opinion?

01:19:11.020 Because do

01:19:11.580 you think on

01:19:12.020 day one I

01:19:12.760 could have

01:19:13.040 gotten most

01:19:13.600 of the people

01:19:14.000 on YouTube

01:19:14.440 to say,

01:19:15.020 yeah, it's

01:19:15.260 obviously

01:19:15.600 political?

01:19:16.740 No.

01:19:17.240 There's no

01:19:17.680 way to do

01:19:18.040 it on day

01:19:18.420 one.

01:19:19.360 If I'd

01:19:19.800 said that

01:19:20.280 on day

01:19:20.600 one, you 0.71

01:19:20.980 would have

01:19:21.220 laughed at

01:19:21.660 me.

01:19:22.440 You would

01:19:22.780 have laughed.

01:19:23.300 You would

01:19:25.260 have absolutely

01:19:25.760 laughed.

01:19:26.260 Oh, yeah,

01:19:27.120 it's political.

01:19:29.060 I got it.

01:19:29.960 I got it, yeah.

01:19:31.000 It's totally

01:19:31.560 political.

01:19:32.800 You would

01:19:33.240 have mocked

01:19:33.840 me mercilessly.

01:19:35.540 But once

01:19:36.380 the fog of

01:19:37.380 war clears,

01:19:38.600 and you can

01:19:39.080 see that it

01:19:39.740 lined up

01:19:40.300 completely

01:19:41.120 politically,

01:19:41.960 it didn't

01:19:42.480 even line

01:19:42.940 up by race,

01:19:44.400 of all

01:19:45.360 things.

01:19:46.120 The opinions

01:19:46.840 did not

01:19:47.460 line up

01:19:48.000 by race.

01:19:49.320 It was

01:19:49.620 only by

01:19:50.040 politics.

01:19:50.760 It was

01:19:51.020 all political

01:19:51.580 from the

01:19:52.680 beginning.

01:19:53.300 All

01:19:55.440 right.

01:19:59.860 John

01:20:00.340 says,

01:20:00.720 I think

01:20:00.940 the

01:20:01.120 battleship

01:20:01.620 is

01:20:01.800 sunk.

01:20:03.160 John,

01:20:04.020 you have

01:20:05.100 no faith

01:20:05.580 in me.

01:20:07.580 This

01:20:08.080 isn't the

01:20:08.480 first time

01:20:08.880 I've been

01:20:09.180 canceled.

01:20:10.260 It's the

01:20:10.740 fourth,

01:20:11.540 or fifth.

01:20:13.980 I'm more

01:20:14.420 canceled than

01:20:15.040 I have so

01:20:15.620 much practice

01:20:17.180 getting canceled

01:20:17.940 for my

01:20:18.500 gender and

01:20:20.440 my race.

01:20:21.520 It's the

01:20:21.840 fourth time.

01:20:23.300 Two corporate

01:20:23.880 jobs,

01:20:25.340 one TV

01:20:26.020 show because

01:20:26.780 they decided

01:20:27.960 to have a

01:20:28.380 black-only

01:20:29.000 night,

01:20:29.980 and they

01:20:30.200 canceled mine,

01:20:31.920 and then

01:20:32.580 this.

01:20:33.740 Four cancellations

01:20:34.840 that would not

01:20:35.700 have happened

01:20:36.100 if I'd been 0.95

01:20:36.740 black. 0.90

01:20:38.240 That's just a 0.97

01:20:39.080 fact.

01:20:40.260 There's four

01:20:40.740 cancellations,

01:20:42.160 two careers,

01:20:43.180 no, three

01:20:43.560 careers,

01:20:44.280 four careers.

01:20:44.800 I've lost

01:20:45.880 four careers

01:20:46.840 for not

01:20:48.660 being black.

01:20:51.120 Being female 0.87

01:20:52.020 would have

01:20:52.280 helped a

01:20:52.620 little bit,

01:20:53.620 but being 0.98

01:20:54.300 black would 0.94

01:20:54.720 have really 0.96

01:20:54.980 helped.

01:20:56.600 Now,

01:20:58.720 do you

01:20:59.320 believe those

01:21:00.600 claims,

01:21:01.400 by the way?

01:21:02.220 Do you

01:21:02.540 believe my

01:21:02.960 claim that I

01:21:03.680 really was

01:21:04.320 told by my

01:21:05.000 bosses directly,

01:21:06.840 you can't be

01:21:07.460 promoted here

01:21:08.180 because you're

01:21:09.440 white?

01:21:10.520 Anybody who

01:21:11.660 is white and

01:21:13.160 lived through

01:21:13.740 the 80s and

01:21:14.760 90s, you

01:21:15.680 all know it's

01:21:16.200 true.

01:21:17.000 Every one of

01:21:17.700 you knows it's

01:21:18.220 true because

01:21:18.840 it happened to

01:21:19.320 you.

01:21:20.360 Somehow,

01:21:21.020 black America

01:21:21.600 never heard of

01:21:22.220 this, which

01:21:24.580 always amazes

01:21:25.200 me, which has

01:21:25.780 nothing to do

01:21:26.320 with black

01:21:26.700 America.

01:21:27.700 There are just

01:21:28.260 as many things

01:21:28.880 that black 1.00

01:21:29.400 Americans know

01:21:30.040 that I don't

01:21:30.560 know.

01:21:31.280 So it's

01:21:31.580 more about

01:21:32.480 the bubble.

01:21:34.840 But there's

01:21:35.760 a prominent

01:21:36.400 journalist, I

01:21:39.180 think Chicago,

01:21:39.880 paper, who

01:21:41.240 has, he

01:21:42.380 kept bothering

01:21:43.000 me online

01:21:43.720 because he

01:21:44.280 thought my

01:21:44.700 claims of

01:21:45.860 being discriminated

01:21:47.440 against for

01:21:47.880 being white 0.67

01:21:48.420 and male in

01:21:49.900 my corporate

01:21:50.360 jobs, he

01:21:51.260 said I was

01:21:51.660 making it up

01:21:52.420 and that I

01:21:53.460 couldn't, you

01:21:54.260 know, he

01:21:54.580 wanted proof.

01:21:55.980 And I kept

01:21:56.800 saying, you

01:21:57.920 need proof from

01:21:58.720 one person?

01:22:00.220 You could

01:22:00.940 literally drive

01:22:01.960 to San

01:22:02.380 Francisco, flag

01:22:04.660 down any 0.91

01:22:05.420 white guy in

01:22:07.160 his 50s, and

01:22:08.280 say, hey, were

01:22:09.040 you working

01:22:09.420 here in the

01:22:10.020 80s and

01:22:10.380 90s?

01:22:11.100 Yes, I

01:22:11.480 was.

01:22:13.000 Were white 0.99

01:22:13.780 people, and

01:22:14.320 white men in

01:22:14.840 particular,

01:22:15.760 discriminated

01:22:16.440 against, like,

01:22:17.200 directly, in

01:22:18.240 direct language,

01:22:19.700 or not?

01:22:21.120 What would

01:22:21.800 every 50-year-old

01:22:23.100 white guy who

01:22:24.100 lives through

01:22:24.620 that time tell

01:22:25.260 you?

01:22:25.900 Oh, yeah,

01:22:26.420 massively.

01:22:27.460 Yeah.

01:22:27.820 It might not

01:22:28.340 have happened to

01:22:28.800 that one person,

01:22:30.360 but they would

01:22:30.900 all know it

01:22:31.620 happened to

01:22:32.120 their brother,

01:22:32.780 their cousin,

01:22:33.900 their father,

01:22:34.660 their mother,

01:22:35.600 not their

01:22:35.960 mother.

01:22:36.180 100% of

01:22:38.260 them.

01:22:38.780 So I'm

01:22:39.020 thinking, how

01:22:40.200 could a

01:22:40.600 journalist, and

01:22:42.340 then here's

01:22:43.280 where the

01:22:43.640 trail died.

01:22:45.780 Since I was

01:22:46.660 unwilling to

01:22:47.420 produce the

01:22:48.460 names and

01:22:49.520 identities of

01:22:50.280 my two bosses

01:22:51.020 from the 80s

01:22:52.500 and 90s,

01:22:53.200 both of whom

01:22:55.300 are likely to

01:22:56.240 no longer be

01:22:56.900 with us,

01:22:57.800 because I

01:22:58.400 think they

01:22:58.680 were both

01:22:58.980 older than

01:22:59.540 me, so

01:23:00.780 they'd be in

01:23:01.580 their 70s,

01:23:03.180 and certainly

01:23:04.040 retired by

01:23:04.840 now, and

01:23:06.200 I'm not

01:23:06.660 going to drag

01:23:07.240 them, because

01:23:08.560 I like both

01:23:09.160 of those bosses,

01:23:09.980 I'm not going

01:23:10.440 to drag them

01:23:11.100 through this.

01:23:13.020 The last thing

01:23:13.900 they want to

01:23:14.200 do is be

01:23:14.580 contacted by

01:23:15.300 the press to

01:23:16.040 fact check

01:23:16.900 this.

01:23:18.140 So I

01:23:18.660 decided not

01:23:19.260 to.

01:23:19.720 I said that

01:23:20.220 I could, but

01:23:21.600 then I thought

01:23:22.240 about it, I was

01:23:22.560 like, that'd be

01:23:23.100 kind of a crappy

01:23:23.800 thing to do

01:23:24.340 to them, so I

01:23:24.880 don't want to

01:23:25.200 do it.

01:23:26.300 And I thought

01:23:27.080 it would be

01:23:27.420 good enough to

01:23:27.940 say, literally

01:23:28.760 ask anybody.

01:23:29.620 You don't

01:23:31.200 need me, just

01:23:32.560 ask anybody, and

01:23:34.100 you'll get the

01:23:34.500 same answer.

01:23:35.720 Anybody who

01:23:36.240 was white and

01:23:37.460 male and lived

01:23:38.340 through that

01:23:38.620 time.

01:23:39.680 And he

01:23:40.380 wasn't willing

01:23:40.900 to do it.

01:23:43.060 And so I

01:23:43.960 just tweeted,

01:23:44.760 hey, did it

01:23:45.180 happen to you?

01:23:45.960 And, you

01:23:46.320 know, hundreds

01:23:47.220 of people say,

01:23:47.980 oh yeah, it

01:23:48.360 happened to

01:23:48.700 me.

01:23:49.420 Like, it

01:23:49.900 doesn't have

01:23:50.260 any impact.

01:23:51.420 People are

01:23:52.000 pretty locked

01:23:52.480 into their

01:23:52.920 beliefs.

01:23:54.980 So, anyway,

01:23:56.980 I'm going to

01:23:59.020 say goodbye

01:23:59.420 to YouTube

01:24:00.040 for tonight.

01:24:01.380 I'll see you

01:24:01.680 tomorrow.

01:24:02.500 Thanks for

01:24:02.900 joining.

01:24:03.620 Best livestream

01:24:04.200 ever.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 16, 2023

Episode 2049 Scott Adams： Reaper vs Russia, Not Hiring Pronoun People, Avoid The Woke, Dodd-Frank

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript